艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 2026 營收達 93 億歐元,超出指引高標,主要因為 Installed Base Management(基礎安裝管理)銷售優於預期;毛利率 54%,同樣高於指引;EPS 為 7.59 歐元。
    • 上修 2026 全年指引:營收預估提升至 430-450 億歐元,毛利率預估 54-56%;Q3 營收預估 110-120 億歐元,毛利率 55-57%。
    • 市場反應未於逐字稿中提及。
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 客戶需求強勁,推動產能擴張,尤其在先進製程邏輯與 DRAM 兩大領域。
      • AI 相關需求帶動 3nm、5nm、4nm、2nm 及未來 1.4nm 節點投資,提升先進邏輯/晶圓代工系統銷售預期超過 25%。
      • DRAM 供應緊張推升 DDR 與 HBM 價格,促使客戶大幅擴產,帶動記憶體相關系統銷售預期成長超過 75%。
      • EUV 低 NA 系統今年預計出貨約 65 台,年增超過 45%;非 EUV 系統(含浸潤式與乾式 DPV)預計年增約 25%。
      • Installed Base Management(服務與升級)業務預計年增超過 30%,受惠於 EUV 裝機數擴大與升級需求。
    • 風險:
      • 產能擴張需持續與供應鏈協調,若客戶需求再度上修,仍需進一步優化現有廠房與流程。
      • 高 NA EUV 平台成熟度尚在提升階段,成本效益需等平台成熟後才能完全體現。
      • 客戶需求能見度雖高,但 2027、2028 年需求仍有波動與不確定性。
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Q2 總營收:93 億歐元,超出指引高標,主因 Installed Base Management 銷售優於預期。
    • Q2 Installed Base Management 銷售:28 億歐元,較指引高出約 3 億歐元,主要來自升級業務。
    • Q2 毛利率:54%,高於指引,主因高毛利組件貢獻。
    • EUV 低 NA 系統 2026 年預計出貨 65 台,年增超過 45%。
    • 非 EUV 系統(含浸潤式 DPV)2026 年預計出貨約 130 台,與 2025 年持平。
    • 中國業務預計全年佔總營收約 20%,主要來自主流邏輯需求。
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 全年營收預估 430-450 億歐元。
    • 2026 全年毛利率預估 54-56%。
    • Q3 2026 營收預估 110-120 億歐元,毛利率 55-57%。
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 針對 High NA 系統價格過高的市場疑慮,未來低 NA 價格是否有調整空間?
      A: ASML 堅持價值導向定價,隨平台成熟 High NA 將展現成本優勢。低 NA 工具生產力持續提升,現階段市場環境下,ASML 有更大定價彈性,但價格調整會隨訂單交付時程逐步反映。
    • Q: 2027、2028 年產能擴張(30% 增幅)是否需新廠房?現有產能極限為何?
      A: 目前所有產能擴張計畫皆基於現有廠房優化,不需新建 clean room。若未來需求再上修,會持續與供應鏈協調,盡力滿足客戶需求。
    • Q: 記憶體業務 75% 成長,主要來自 HBM 技術升級還是產能擴充?
      A: 成長來自 HBM 與 DDR 產能雙雙擴大,且新節點(如 1C、1B)EUV 與浸潤式層數增加,形成需求『完美風暴』。
    • Q: EUV 工具 mix 變化對毛利率的影響?2027 年毛利率展望?
      A: 今年下半年 EUV mix 轉佳,明年將以 E、F 型號為主,單價與毛利率更高。若市場需求持續強勁,毛利率驅動因素(產品 mix、產能利用率、升級服務)將延續正向。*未具體給出 2027 年毛利率指引
    • Q: Installed Base 升級業務未來成長潛力?是否有更長期合約或規劃?
      A: 客戶對現有廠房產能提升需求強烈,升級產品涵蓋所有 EUV/浸潤式機型,需求預期持續強勁,並將開發更多新升級產品以滿足市場。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2026 second quarter financial results conference call on July 15, 2026. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    各位好,感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 ASML 於 2026 年 7 月 15 日舉行的 2026 年第二季財務業績電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意,今天的會議將被錄音。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Jim Kavanagh. Please go ahead.

    現在我想將會議交給 Jim Kavanagh 先生。請開始。

  • Jim Kavanagh - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Jim Kavanagh - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Jim Kavanagh, Head of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2026 second quarter results.

    謝謝,接線員。各位好,歡迎大家。我是 Jim Kavanagh,ASML 投資人關係主管。今天與我一同出席電話會議的有 ASML 執行長 Christophe Fouquet,以及我們的財務長 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2026 年第二季業績。

  • The length of the call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet on www.asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

    本次電話會議時間為 60 分鐘,並將依收到問題的順序進行提問。本次電話會議也將透過網際網路在 www.asml.com 進行即時直播。管理層開場致詞的逐字稿以及電話會議重播,將在本次電話會議結束後不久於我們的網站提供。

  • Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at www.asml.com and on ASML's annual report on the Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    在開始之前,我想提醒各位,管理層在本次電話會議中的評論將包含符合聯邦證券法意義之「前瞻性陳述」。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險與不確定性。關於風險因素的討論,我建議您查閱今日新聞稿與簡報中所載的安全港聲明(可於 www.asml.com 取得),以及 ASML 於 Form 20-F 年報與其他向美國證券交易委員會提交之文件。

  • With that, I would like to turn the call over to Christophe Fouquet for a brief introduction.

    接下來,我想把電話會議交給 Christophe Fouquet,請他做簡短開場。

  • Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Jim. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2026 results conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the second quarter 2026 results as well as provide some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook. Roger?

    謝謝你,Jim。各位好,歡迎大家,也感謝各位參加我們 2026 年第二季業績電話會議。在開始問答環節之前,Roger 和我想先就 2026 年第二季業績提供概覽與一些評論,並就目前的商業環境以及我們未來的業務展望補充一些看法。Roger?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Thank you, Christophe and welcome, everyone. I will first review the second quarter 2026 financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the third-quarter and full year of 2026.

    謝謝你,Christophe,也歡迎各位。我將先回顧 2026 年第二季的財務成果,接著提供 2026 年第三季與全年指引。

  • Let me start with our second quarter accomplishments. In the second quarter of 2026, total net sales were EUR9.3 billion, which is above the high end of our guidance as a result of higher than expected Installed Base Management sales.

    我先從第二季的成果談起。2026 年第二季,總淨銷售額為 93 億歐元,高於我們指引區間的上緣,主要是因為「已裝機基礎管理」(Installed Base Management)銷售高於預期。

  • Net system sales were EUR6.6 billion, which includes EUR3.8 billion from EUV system sales, including sales of one High NA system, and EUR2.8 billion from non-EUV system sales. Net system sales were almost equally split between Logic at 51% and Memory at 49%.

    系統淨銷售額為 66 億歐元,其中包括 38 億歐元的 EUV 系統銷售(包含 1 台 High NA 系統的銷售),以及 28 億歐元的非 EUV 系統銷售。系統淨銷售額在邏輯(Logic)與記憶體(Memory)之間幾乎各半分配,分別為 51% 與 49%。

  • Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR2.8 billion, almost EUR300 million above our guidance, a result driven primarily by additional upgrade business. Gross margin for the quarter was above our guidance at 54% primarily due to the contribution of very high margin components within our Installed Base Management business.

    本季已裝機基礎管理銷售為 28 億歐元,較我們指引高出將近 3 億歐元,主要由額外的升級業務所帶動。本季毛利率為 54%,高於我們指引,主要因為已裝機基礎管理業務中超高毛利的零組件貢獻。

  • Our operating expenses were higher than guided due to the recognition of estimated costs related to the Technology and IT transformation in Q2, primarily in R&D. R&D expenses came in at EUR1.3 billion and SG&A expenses came in at around EUR0.3 billion. The effective tax rate for Q2 was 17.5%. For the full year 2026 the expected annualized effective tax rate is around 17%. Net income in Q2 was EUR2.9 billion, representing 31.3% of total net sales and resulting in earnings per share of EUR7.59.

    由於在第二季認列與技術與 IT 轉型相關的估計成本(主要在研發),我們的營運費用高於指引。研發費用為 13 億歐元,銷售、一般及行政費用(SG&A)約為 3 億歐元。第二季有效稅率為 17.5%。2026 全年預期年化有效稅率約為 17%。第二季淨利為 29 億歐元,占總淨銷售額的 31.3%,每股盈餘為 7.59 歐元。

  • Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the second quarter with cash, cash equivalents, and shortterm investments at a level of EUR7.6 billion. Our free cash flow in Q2 was EUR1.3 billion. Moving to our cash return to our shareholders. In Q2, ASML paid the final dividend over 2025 of EUR2.70 per ordinary share. Together with the 300 dividends paid in 2025 and 2026, this resulted in a total dividend for 2025 of EUR7.50 per ordinary share.

    接著看資產負債表,我們在第二季末的現金、約當現金與短期投資為 76 億歐元。第二季自由現金流為 13 億歐元。接下來談我們對股東的現金回饋。第二季,ASML 支付了 2025 年度的期末股利,每股普通股 2.70 歐元。加上 2025 年與 2026 年已支付的 300 股利後,2025 年度每股普通股的股利總額為 7.50 歐元。

  • In the second quarter, we purchased around EUR1.1 billion worth of shares under the current 2026-2028 share buyback program. The first quarterly interim dividend over 2026 will be EUR1.88 per ordinary share and will be made payable on August 5, 2026.

    第二季,我們在現行 2026-2028 年庫藏股回購計畫下回購了約 11 億歐元的股份。2026 年度第一季中期股利將為每股普通股 1.88 歐元,並將於 2026 年 8 月 5 日支付。

  • With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the third quarter of 2026. We expect Q3 total net sales to be between EUR11 billion and EUR12 billion. We expect our Q3 installed base management sales to be around EUR2.9 billion. Gross margin for Q3 is expected to be between 55% and 57%. The expected R&D expenses for Q3 are around EUR1.2 billion, and SG&A is expected to be around EUR0.4 billion.

    接下來我說明我們對 2026 年第三季的預期。我們預期第三季總淨銷售額介於 110 億至 120 億歐元。我們預期第三季已裝機基礎管理銷售約為 29 億歐元。第三季毛利率預期介於 55% 至 57%。第三季預期研發費用約為 12 億歐元,SG&A 預期約為 4 億歐元。

  • Driven by continued strong demand, we are updating our full year 2026 guidance. We now expect total net sales between EUR43 billion and EUR45 billion, with a gross margin between 54% and 56% billion numbers in euros.

    在持續強勁需求的帶動下,我們更新 2026 全年指引。我們目前預期總淨銷售額介於 430 億至 450 億歐元,毛利率介於 54% 至 56%(金額單位為歐元)。

  • With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Christophe.

    接下來我把電話會議交回給 Christophe。

  • Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Roger. I will now provide some additional details on the dynamics that prompted us to raise our guidance for the full year. The combination of continued strong momentum in customer demand and our ability to respond to that by driving higher output to strength in our supply chain, our manufacturing and our installed teams in the field are the primary drivers of our improved guidance.

    謝謝你,Roger。我現在將補充一些細節,說明促使我們上調全年指引的動態因素。持續強勁的客戶需求動能,加上我們能夠回應需求、在供應鏈、製造端以及現場已裝機團隊的支援下提升產出,是我們改善指引的主要驅動因素。

  • Strong end market demand this year has motivated our customers to aggressively add capacity on their leading-edge nodes. A number of our customers have revised their capital expenditure plans upwards for the year, and our ability to increase output has allowed us to meet their requests for additional lithography system.

    今年終端市場需求強勁,促使我們的客戶積極在其先進製程節點擴增產能。多家客戶已上調今年的資本支出計畫,而我們提升產出的能力,使我們得以滿足其對額外微影系統的需求。

  • The dynamics are very similar in both advanced Logic and DRAM and the plans to build up capacity are equally aggressive. Our customers in both segments are entering into long-term agreements with their customers, providing them with longer-term visibility, and the confidence to add significant capacity to support demand.

    在先進邏輯與 DRAM 兩個領域,相關動態非常相似,擴產計畫同樣積極。兩個領域的客戶都正與其客戶簽訂長期協議,提供更長期的能見度,並使其更有信心新增大量產能以支撐需求。

  • In Logic, there is a continued investment not only to enable the expansion of 3-nanometer capacity in support of the latest generation of AI accelerators, but also at both the 5-nanometer and the 4-nanometer nodes to support the diverse set of chips required by AI product.

    在邏輯領域,持續的投資不僅用於擴充 3 奈米產能以支援最新一代 AI 加速器,也同時投入於 5 奈米與 4 奈米節點,以支援 AI 產品所需的多樣化晶片組合。

  • At the same time, the 2-nanometer node continues to ramp rapidly to support next-generation HPC and mobile applications. And our customers are already planning investment to support the development of the 1.4 nanometer nodes. These dynamics in the Logic segments are driving both an increase in litho intensity and greater demand for advanced lithography. We now expect advanced logic/foundry related net system sales to grow over 25% this year.

    同時,2 奈米節點持續快速爬坡,以支援下一代 HPC 與行動應用。而我們的客戶也已在規劃投資,以支援 1.4 奈米節點的開發。邏輯領域的這些動態,正同時推動微影密度(litho intensity)提升,以及對先進微影的更高需求。我們目前預期今年先進邏輯/晶圓代工相關的系統淨銷售額將成長超過 25%。

  • In DRAM, the supply challenges driving up both DDR and HBM prices have prompted significant investments in fab expansion. Our customers are adding meaningful capacity this year while at the same time, they plan further capacity expansion as indicated by the plans to build multiple mega fabs. These additions will come online in phases over the coming years.

    在 DRAM 方面,推升 DDR 與 HBM 價格的供給挑戰,已促使業界對晶圓廠擴產進行大量投資。我們的客戶今年正在新增具規模的產能,同時也規劃進一步擴產,從其興建多座超級晶圓廠(mega fabs)的計畫即可看出。這些新增產能將在未來數年分階段投產。

  • In addition, DRAM lithography intensity is raising as customers migrate to advanced nodes. This includes both EUV and DUV immersion, with EUV low NA growth driven by the increased replacement of multi-patterning with more cost-effective single exposed EUV. As a result, we anticipate our memory-related net system sales to grow by over 75% this year.

    此外,隨著客戶遷移至先進製程節點,DRAM 的微影強度正在提升。這同時涵蓋 EUV 與 DUV 浸潤式;其中 EUV 低 NA 的成長,主要由以更具成本效益的單次曝光 EUV 取代多重圖形化(multi-patterning)的趨勢所帶動。因此,我們預期今年與記憶體相關的淨系統銷售額將成長超過 75%。

  • I will now turn it back over to Roger to provide details on what that means for the different parts of our business and our plans to support this growing demand.

    接下來我把時間交還給 Roger,請他說明這對我們業務各個部分的意義,以及我們支援這股成長需求的規劃。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Thanks, Christophe. Starting first with our EUV business. We now expect to ship around 65 low NA EUV systems this year resulting on year-over-year EUV net system sales growth of over 45%. This demand is being fueled by very strong momentum in both DRAM and advanced Logic.

    謝謝你,Christophe。先從我們的 EUV 業務談起。我們目前預期今年將出貨約 65 台低 NA EUV 系統,使 EUV 淨系統銷售額年增超過 45%。這項需求由 DRAM 與先進邏輯(advanced Logic)兩者非常強勁的動能所驅動。

  • Moving to the DPV business. For immersion DPV, we expect about 130 shipments this year, which is similar to the output level of these systems in 2025. This year, we have worked closely together with our supply chain partners to reaccelerate our output of these systems.

    接著談 DPV 業務。就浸潤式 DPV 而言,我們預期今年出貨約 130 台,與 2025 年這些系統的產出水準相近。今年我們與供應鏈夥伴密切合作,重新加速這些系統的產出。

  • Shipments of dry DPV systems have also increased markedly this year. Further, greater process control intensity at advanced nodes has led to major traction when it comes to adoption of our optical and e-beam metrology products across all key customers. Given these trends in our DPV and metrology and inspection business, we expect growth in non-EUV net system sales of around 25% this year.

    乾式 DPV 系統的出貨量今年也顯著增加。此外,先進節點更高的製程控制強度,帶動我們的光學與電子束(e-beam)量測產品在所有主要客戶間的採用出現重大進展。基於 DPV 以及量測與檢測業務的這些趨勢,我們預期今年非 EUV 的淨系統銷售額將成長約 25%。

  • Installed base management sales are expected to grow over 30% this year, driven by service revenue from our expanding EUV installed base and customer demand for performance and productivity upgrades to support their increasing capacity requirements.

    裝機基礎管理(Installed base management)銷售額預期今年將成長超過 30%,主要受惠於我們持續擴大的 EUV 裝機基礎所帶來的服務營收,以及客戶為支援其不斷提升的產能需求而對效能與生產力升級的需求。

  • Turning to our China-related business. We continue to expect this to make up around 20% of our total net sales for the full year as it increases in line with the overall business, mainly related to an increased demand in mainstream Logic.

    接著談我們與中國相關的業務。我們仍預期全年該部分約占總淨銷售額的 20%,並將隨整體業務同步成長,主要與主流邏輯(mainstream Logic)需求增加有關。

  • With regard to our capacity plans, we are continuing to have very constructive conversations with our customers to better understand the demand for our systems beyond 2026. With increasing visibility into their customer plans, our customers have been able to share forecast with us that extend out multiple years. We see this heightened visibility reflected in auto momentum that has remained extremely strong through the first half of the year. As a result, our backlog continues to increase with a broad mix of customers.

    就我們的產能規劃而言,我們持續與客戶進行非常具建設性的對話,以更深入了解 2026 年之後對我們系統的需求。隨著對其客戶規劃的能見度提升,我們的客戶已能與我們分享延伸至未來多年的預測。我們看到這種更高的能見度反映在自動化(auto)動能上,且在上半年仍維持極為強勁。因此,我們的在手訂單(backlog)持續增加,且客戶組合相當多元。

  • For 2027, we are now close to being fully covered with orders for low NA EUV, and we are planning to increase our low NA EUV capacity by around 30%. Looking ahead to 2028, we have already received a significant number of low NA EUV orders. Strong demand forecasts from our customers have led us to investigate a further 30% capacity increase for that year.

    針對 2027 年,我們目前低 NA EUV 的訂單幾乎已接近完全覆蓋,我們規劃將低 NA EUV 產能提升約 30%。展望 2028 年,我們已收到相當數量的低 NA EUV 訂單。客戶強勁的需求預測,促使我們評估該年度再進一步提升 30% 產能的可能性。

  • Similarly, for our immersion systems, we intend to increase capacity by 30% in 2027 and are investigating a potential further 30% expansion for 2028.

    同樣地,針對我們的浸潤式系統,我們計畫在 2027 年將產能提升 30%,並評估 2028 年可能再進一步擴增 30%。

  • With that, I would like to turn it back over to Christophe.

    接下來,我想把時間交還給 Christophe。

  • Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Roger. Turning to our technology road map. We see High NA EUV continue to make good progress. We are continuing to work very closely with our customers to prove the value of High NA technology for their process technology road maps. In parallel, the maturity of the platform is improving towards the level required for insertion into high-volume manufacturing.

    謝謝你,Roger。接著談我們的技術路線圖。我們看到 High NA EUV 持續取得良好進展。我們持續與客戶非常緊密合作,以驗證 High NA 技術對其製程技術路線圖的價值。同時,平台成熟度也正提升至可導入高量產(high-volume manufacturing)所需的水準。

  • We were also very pleased to announce in a press release earlier today that Intel foundry is using ASML High NA EUV technology on the Intel 18A process node to produce a subset of its Intel core Ultra-series reprocessors. These milestones marks an important step in demonstrating High NA EUV readiness in a production environment.

    我們也很高興在今天稍早的新聞稿中宣布,Intel Foundry 正在 Intel 18A 製程節點上使用 ASML 的 High NA EUV 技術,來生產其 Intel Core Ultra 系列再處理器(reprocessors)的一部分。這些里程碑標誌著在生產環境中展示 High NA EUV 就緒度的重要一步。

  • To conclude, customer demand remains very strong with visibility now extending several years into the future. We have responded effectively to the increasing demand, and we'll continue investing to ensure our capacity and capability remains aligned with our customer needs. We also see that the rapid growth of AI-related demand in advanced Logic and DRAM is accelerating the move towards more advanced lithography solution and increasing lithography intensity.

    總結來說,客戶需求仍然非常強勁,目前能見度已延伸至未來數年。我們已有效回應不斷增加的需求,並將持續投資,以確保我們的產能與能力始終與客戶需求一致。我們也看到,先進邏輯與 DRAM 中 AI 相關需求的快速成長,正加速轉向更先進的微影解決方案,並提高微影強度。

  • At our next Capital Market Day, which will be held on June 10, 2027, we will update our longer-term views to reflect the market and technology dynamics since our last Capital Market Day. I look forward to seeing many of our investors there.

    在下一次資本市場日(Capital Market Day),也就是 2027 年 6 月 10 日舉行時,我們將更新較長期的觀點,以反映自上次資本市場日以來的市場與技術動態。我期待在那裡見到許多投資人。

  • With that, we will be happy to take your questions.

    接下來,我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

  • Jim Kavanagh - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Jim Kavanagh - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Roger, and thank you, Christophe. (Event Instructions)

    謝謝你,Roger,也謝謝你,Christophe。(活動說明)

  • Now, operator, can we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

    現在,接線員,請先提供最後的說明,然後請進入第一個問題,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員說明)

  • Francois Bouvignies, UBS.

    Francois Bouvignies,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

    Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

  • My first question maybe is on ASML has often described its pricing approach as being based on the value delivered to customers, although, of course, by definition that requires assumptions about the economic benefits, the customers can extract from your tools.

    我的第一個問題可能是關於 ASML 經常將其定價方式描述為以交付給客戶的價值為基礎;當然,按定義這需要對客戶能從你們的設備中取得的經濟效益做出一些假設。

  • So with that in mind, I just wanted to revisit TSMC recent comments on High NA systems being too expensive. One interpretation could be that customers are finding more value in the low end than maybe we previously expected, particularly if they can do some triple patterning at competitive cost versus high NA.

    因此基於這點,我想回到台積電近期對 High NA 系統「太昂貴」的評論。其中一種解讀是,客戶在低階(low end)可能找到比我們先前預期更高的價值,特別是如果他們能以具競爭力的成本進行三重圖形化(triple patterning),相較於 High NA。

  • So my question is, is there any scope for pricing adjustments for low NA over time to ensure that the system pricing remains aligned with the incremental value customers I mean, the incremental value you give to customers. Does that make sense?

    所以我的問題是,隨著時間推進,低 NA 的定價是否有任何調整空間,以確保系統定價仍與客戶所獲得的增量價值一致——我是指你們帶給客戶的增量價值。這樣說有道理嗎?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Well, I think, Francois, I understand maybe the question, the connection between High NA and Low NA. So let me start with High NA. I think we discussed that in the past. And every new generation of lithography system ASML ever brought to market was with a strong intention to reduce the cost of patterning. So when you look at High NA single expose, the design of the tool, the performance of the tool will be such that it provides a cost benefit to our customer.

    嗯,我想,Francois,我大概理解你的問題,以及 High NA 與 Low NA 之間的連結。我先從 High NA 談起。我想我們過去討論過。ASML 推向市場的每一代新微影系統,都有一個強烈的目標:降低圖形化成本。因此當你看 High NA 的單次曝光(single expose)時,該設備的設計與性能將使其能為客戶帶來成本效益。

  • Now of course, to reach that point, you need to have the right maturity of the platform. I just mentioned that we are still basically working in bringing the High NA platform to the level of maturity of low NA. And when you achieve that, this is practically the time where the cost of High NA is going basically to provide an advantage versus the existing technology.

    當然,要達到那個點,你需要平台具備適當的成熟度。我剛才提到,我們基本上仍在努力把 High NA 平台的成熟度提升到與 Low NA 相同的水準。當你達到那個水準時,High NA 的成本基本上就會相較於既有技術提供優勢。

  • So I think that logic is still true and again, get implemented when the platform reached the right maturity. Therefore, I think there's no we need to maybe look at one cool price versus the other because that logic, I think, was also true for low NA, if you remember our discussion back in 2018, '19.

    所以我認為那個邏輯仍然成立,而且會在平台達到適當成熟度時再次被落實。因此,我認為我們不需要去比較某個「很酷的價格」和另一個價格,因為那個邏輯——我認為——對低 NA 也同樣成立;如果你還記得我們在 2018、2019 年的討論。

  • I think the key, again, for High NA to be cost effective, to beat the cost of low NA plus emergent multi-patterning is to bring High NA to the right maturity. And in that sense, we are very happy with the press release this morning about Intel because this is, I would say, maybe the strongest signs so far that we're getting there.

    我認為關鍵同樣在於:要讓高 NA 具備成本效益、能夠勝過低 NA 加上新興多重圖形化(multi-patterning)的成本,就必須把高 NA 推進到適當的成熟度。從這個角度來看,我們對今天早上關於英特爾的新聞稿感到非常高興,因為我會說,這可能是迄今為止最強烈的跡象,顯示我們正在達成那個目標。

  • Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

    Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

  • So there is no section of low NA pricing -- yes, sorry, go ahead, Roger.

    所以低 NA 的定價沒有——是的,抱歉,請繼續,Roger。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • So I would say, Francois, in addition to that, when it comes to Low NA pricing, of course, you know that we keep on increasing the productivity of the low NA tool. So that, of course, that gives us a pretty strong runway for potential price improvements going forward.

    所以我會說,Francois,除此之外,談到低 NA 的定價,當然,你也知道我們持續提升低 NA 機台的生產力。因此,這當然也為我們未來潛在的價格改善提供了相當強的跑道。

  • And you're right. I mean, value-based pricing is the concept that we that we follow within ASML. And you're also right that in the current environment, of course, the value for customers is higher than in other circumstances. So I would agree with you that the current environment provides more flexibility for pricing than what you would have had in different days.

    而你說得沒錯。我的意思是,以價值為基礎的定價(value-based pricing)是我們在 ASML 內部所遵循的概念。你也說得對,在目前的環境下,客戶所獲得的價值當然比其他情況更高。所以我同意你:當前環境相較於不同時期,確實提供了更大的定價彈性。

  • Of course, you will also appreciate given the long order lead times that we have that doesn't translate into pricing effects tomorrow. But clearly, the environment that we live in today with the value that our products bring to customer is substantial, of course, gives us flexibility on pricing more so than what you would have seen in the past. And of course, we're executing on that as well.

    當然,考量到我們的訂單交期很長,你也會理解這不會在明天就轉化為定價效果。但很明顯,我們今天所處的環境,以及我們產品為客戶帶來的價值非常可觀,當然也讓我們在定價上比過去更有彈性。而且我們也正在執行這件事。

  • Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

    Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

  • When could that happen, Roger, I mean, to your point, if not tomorrow, after tomorrow. So when it is?

    那麼這會在什麼時候發生,Roger?我的意思是,照你說的,如果不是明天,那就是後天;所以到底是什麼時候?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • So that really depends on the order situation that you have with customers. As I said, it's obviously linked to other lead times. So and of course, that varies from one to the other. But the dynamic is clearly there, Francois.

    這真的取決於你與客戶之間的訂單狀況。如我所說,這顯然與其他交期相關。而且當然,不同客戶之間會有所差異。但這個動態很明確存在,Francois。

  • Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

    Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

  • Okay. And maybe just the follow-up quick one is on the -- I mean, the 30% increase in '28, which implies 110 tools. And I mean, Christophe, you mentioned investigating the world is precise. Do you need the new clean room for that? Or are you contemplating maybe to add clean room to ASML capabilities.

    好的。另外一個很快的追問是關於——我的意思是,2028 年增加 30%,這意味著 110 台設備。而且,Christophe,你提到正在評估(investigating)這個世界是否精確。為此你需要新的無塵室嗎?或者你是否在考慮為 ASML 的能力再增加無塵室?

  • Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think all the capacity increase either plan or investigated, we're talking about or based on our existing footprint. So we have been working extremely hard, as you may have noticed in the last six-, nine months to increase our output. We'll continue to work very hard in the next few months to do the same.

    我認為所有的產能提升,不論是已規劃的或正在評估的,我們談的都是基於現有的廠區足跡。因此,正如你在過去六到九個月可能注意到的,我們一直非常努力地提高產出。接下來幾個月我們也會繼續非常努力地做同樣的事。

  • And the number we are mentioning we can achieve basically by optimizing the existing clean room space in the right way. So this is also why we can create basically that improvement on the short term.

    而我們提到可以達成的數字,基本上是透過以正確方式最佳化現有無塵室空間來實現。這也是為什麼我們能在短期內基本上創造那樣的改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

    Joe Quatrochi,富國銀行(Wells Fargo)。

  • Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

    Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

  • You noted that you're close to receiving all the orders you need for 2027 to be covered on low NA. And your increase in capacity, obviously, by 30%. So I guess the question is, is the implied kind of 85 tools for next year? Is that the ceiling of what you can think you can support in your supply chain can support next year? Or it sounds like maybe the existing footprint can support more. Is there a possibility that, that can move higher as we move closer to 2027?

    你提到你們已接近收到 2027 年低 NA 所需的全部訂單、足以覆蓋 2027 年。而你們的產能顯然提高了 30%。所以我想問的是,明年隱含大約 85 台設備的數字——那是你認為你們供應鏈明年所能支援的上限嗎?還是聽起來現有的廠區足跡可以支援更多?隨著我們更接近 2027 年,是否有可能那個數字還會再往上?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Joe, it's the balance as we see it today. The balance between demand and supplies we see it today gets us to the 30%, right? So that's the way we do it. If customers are going to come to ASML and say, ASML, we need considerably more than just as we've been doing it in the past couple of months, we need to look ourselves in the eye, we need to look at all the supply chain and just see what can further be done.

    Joe,這是我們今天所看到的平衡。我們今天看到的需求與供給之間的平衡,讓我們達到 30%,對吧?所以我們就是這樣做的。如果客戶來到 ASML 說:ASML,我們需要遠遠超過——就像我們過去幾個月一直在做的那樣——那我們就必須正視自己,檢視整個供應鏈,看看還能再做些什麼。

  • But at this stage, given the conversations we have, we think the 85 is a nice representation of the balance between what customers are asking of us and what, at this stage, we've been asking ourselves in the supply chain to do. But if more is needed, just as we've done it in the past couple of quarters, we're going to roll up our sleeves and see if more can be done.

    但在這個階段,基於我們目前的對話,我們認為 85 是一個很好的呈現,反映了客戶對我們的要求,以及在此階段我們在供應鏈端要求自己做到的事情之間的平衡。但如果需要更多,就像我們在過去幾個季度所做的,我們會捲起袖子看看是否還能做得更多。

  • Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And maybe, Joe, to add that back to Francois question. So I explained that the 2 times 30% is based on our existing footprint. So the question basically is really the speed at which we need to execute to support the customer demand and potentially at some point we can execute. But on that part, as you have noticed in the last few months, we have been very successful.

    另外,Joe,補充回到 Francois 的問題。我解釋過,兩次 30% 的提升是基於我們現有的廠區足跡。所以問題基本上在於:我們需要以多快的速度執行,才能支援客戶需求;而且在某個時間點,我們可能可以執行到位。但在這部分,正如你在過去幾個月所注意到的,我們非常成功。

  • So we have the space. We have, I will say, the recipe to get to those numbers. And as I said, we will continue to both stay in sync with our customer, ask them what they need, and continue to work very hard on output. And the first mission of ASML is to provide their customers what they need, basically.

    所以我們有空間。我們也有——我會說——達到那些數字的「配方」。而且如我所說,我們會持續與客戶保持同步,詢問他們需要什麼,同時繼續非常努力提升產出。而 ASML 的首要任務,基本上就是提供客戶所需要的東西。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • And Joe, a bit to further build on that, we should also remind ourselves that we shouldn't just be looking at unit percent increases, right? So we're looking at 30%, which is boxes, if you like, so 30% more tools. But you should also recognize that the two mix that we're going to ship next year is a different tool mix from the tool mix that we shipped this year.

    而且 Joe,再進一步補充,我們也應該提醒自己:不應該只看單位數的百分比增長,對吧?我們談的是 30%,如果你願意的話,就是「箱子」——也就是多 30% 的機台數量。但你也應該注意到,我們明年要出貨的產品組合,與今年出貨的機台組合不同。

  • So when it comes to EUV in particular, right, the tool mix that we're going to ship next year will be E's and S while this year, it's a combination of E's and E's and if you recognize the difference and output in essence, what you're looking at is not 30% improvement of wafer capacity that we're adding that approximately 45%.

    所以特別是在 EUV 方面,對吧,我們明年要出貨的機台組合會是 E 和 S;而今年則是 E 與 E 的組合。

  • And in addition to that, as you also know, we're offering a whole slew of upgrade packages to the install base to customers, which gives them another significant uptick. So it's in a combination of improving the number of -- the capacity that we have internally to crank out unit numbers and the productivity of the tools and the upgrades of the installed base. And in that combination, as Christophe said, we think that we're very successful in meeting the objectives and the demands of our customers.

    此外,如你所知,我們也向客戶的既有裝機基礎提供一整套升級套件,這會帶來另一個顯著的提升。所以這是多方面的組合:提升我們內部能夠拉升單位產出的產能、提升機台生產力,以及對既有裝機基礎的升級。在這樣的組合下,正如 Christophe 所說,我們認為我們在達成目標並滿足客戶需求方面非常成功。

  • Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

    Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

  • That's really helpful color. I appreciate all the detail. Maybe just as a follow-up, you talked about like optimizing the existing clean room space for capacity. Does that change at all what you think you could do from a capacity standpoint for High NA? Can you remind us what the High NA capacity is we're looking into '27, '28?

    這些說明非常有幫助。我很感謝所有細節。也許再追問一下:你提到像是透過最佳化現有無塵室空間來提升產能。這是否會改變你對高 NA 產能能做到什麼程度的看法?你能提醒我們在 2027、2028 年我們正在研究的高 NA 產能大概是多少嗎?

  • Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think for NA, we follow the exact same principle, which is to match our supply with our customer demand. So I think we optimize across all the products. And there's also, of course, some discussion around High NA, as we mentioned. There is some discussion about insertion. So we keep also, of course, the flexibility to be able to respond to that when the time comes.

    嗯,我認為就 NA 而言,我們遵循完全相同的原則,也就是讓我們的供給與客戶需求相匹配。所以我認為我們是在所有產品上進行最佳化。當然,也有一些關於 High NA 的討論,如我們先前提到的。也有一些關於導入(insertion)的討論。因此我們也會保留彈性,以便在時機到來時能夠回應。

  • So the optimization I was referring to before is really basically across all products. Now I think everyone understand that, of course, a lot more is being done to the low NA and immersion, for example, than High NA. But we are not sacrificing, I would say, any of our high NA supply by doing the rest of the optimization.

    所以我先前提到的最佳化,基本上確實是跨所有產品進行的。我想大家都理解,當然,相較於 High NA,目前在低 NA 與浸潤式(immersion)等方面所做的工作要多得多。但我會說,我們並沒有因為做其他最佳化而犧牲任何 High NA 的供應。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

    Krish Sankar,TD Cowen。

  • Krish Sankar - Analyst

    Krish Sankar - Analyst

  • I (technical difficulty) the capacity increased to 85 and 110 units, you are meeting the demand, not under-shipping. Is that correct? And if so, for you to increase, are you waiting for purchase orders from customers before you start adding more capacity? And then I have a follow-up.

    我(技術問題)產能提高到 85 與 110 台,你們是在滿足需求,而不是少出貨。這樣理解正確嗎?如果是的話,你們要提高產能時,是否會等到客戶下採購訂單(purchase orders)後才開始增加更多產能?然後我還有一個追問。

  • Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think on the first question, I think that, as you have noticed in the last few months, I don't think we have reached yet a stable state on what the demand will be for '27, certainly not for '28. So we keep on revising basically with our customer what that demand is. And again, the whole goal of our supply is to follow that demand. So I would not say that we have done with this discussion. I think you see the dynamic on the market. This is still pretty strong.

    嗯,我想就第一個問題而言,正如你在過去幾個月注意到的,我不認為我們已經達到一個穩定狀態,能確定 '27 年的需求會是什麼樣子,更不用說 '28 年。所以我們會持續與客戶一起修正、更新需求預估。再說一次,我們供給的整體目標就是跟隨那個需求。因此我不會說這個討論已經結束。你也看到市場的動態。目前仍然相當強勁。

  • So this is also bringing some, of course, I would say, always tension to make sure that the two numbers match, but that's again something we'll continue to do. So short answer is yes, the capacity is there to meet the demand. But the demand is still fluctuating. We get nice visibility for sure for '27, even '28, but we also mostly are not at the end of the discussion with our customer.

    因此這也會帶來一些——我會說——一貫的張力,確保兩個數字能夠匹配,但這同樣是我們會持續去做的事情。所以簡短回答是:是的,產能是足以滿足需求的。但需求仍在波動。我們對 '27 年、甚至 '28 年確實有不錯的能見度,但同時我們與客戶的討論大多也還沒有到尾聲。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • And clearly, Krish, we're not waiting until we get the orders, right? Because we said we're investigating the 110 scenario for EUV in low NA by 2028. Of course, we don't have orders for 110 EUV low at this stage. So we're not waiting, We're preempting, but we are doing this because the demand signals that we're getting from customers that have not yet translated into full deals, the demand signals we're getting from customers are quite strong. So that's why we're investigating this and preparing as best as we can at this stage.

    而且很明確地說,Krish,我們不會等到拿到訂單才行動,對吧?因為我們說過,我們正在評估到 2028 年低 NA 的 EUV 達到 110 台的情境。當然,在這個階段我們並沒有 110 台低 NA EUV 的訂單。所以我們不是在等待;我們是在提前布局。但我們之所以這麼做,是因為我們從客戶那裡收到的需求訊號——雖然尚未轉化為完整的交易——相當強勁。因此我們才會評估這個方向,並在現階段盡可能做好準備。

  • Krish Sankar - Analyst

    Krish Sankar - Analyst

  • Very helpful. And then a quick follow-up. It seems like the 3-nanometer node is actually being more of a longer and stronger node than people thought. So I would assume that you would still be shipping 3,600 Ds. But Roger, you mentioned that next year, there won't be any D in in the mix.

    非常有幫助。接著一個簡短追問。看起來 3 奈米節點實際上比大家原先想的更長、也更強勢。所以我會假設你們仍會出貨 3,600 台 D。但 Roger,你提到明年組合裡不會有任何 D。

  • So I just want to clarify, is that true? And if so, is it fair to assume that gross margin next year should grow versus this year because if your mix is shifting to more volumes of E and eventually S?

    所以我想確認一下,這是真的嗎?如果是的話,是否可以合理推論明年的毛利率應該會比今年成長,因為你們的產品組合正轉向更多 E 的出貨量,並最終轉向 S?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Krish, at a certain point in time, we're simply sold out when it comes to D models, right? So D use a specific QB from Xian at a certain point in time, we're just done. And we expect to be done or maybe virtually done, but done this year, it might be one or two sitting into next year. But essentially, we're done with it this year. And then from that moment onwards, there is no D left anymore, and therefore, we'll build even half next year.

    Krish,在某個時間點,我們在 D 機型上就是完全售罄了,對吧?D 會使用來自西安的一個特定 QB,到了某個時間點,我們就結束了。我們預期今年就會結束,或許幾乎結束;可能會有一兩台延續到明年。但基本上,今年就會結束。從那一刻起,就不再有 D 了,因此明年我們將會建置 E。

  • And of course, that mix will come with a better ASP than the mix that we have this year because it also will come with higher productivity as we just laid out and other and also comes with a better gross margin profile. Of course, I'm not going to guide you the gross margin for next year, Krish, but it is true that the mix effect on EUV next year will be more positive than it is this year.

    當然,這樣的組合會帶來比今年更好的 ASP(平均售價),因為它也會帶來更高的生產力,如我們剛才所說的,並且也會帶來更好的毛利結構。當然,Krish,我不會對明年的毛利率給出指引,但確實,明年 EUV 的組合效應會比今年更正面。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephane Houri, ODDO BHF.

    Stephane Houri,ODDO BHF。

  • Stephane Houri - Analyst

    Stephane Houri - Analyst

  • Yes. So my question is for (technical difficulty) where you say you have already large order volumes, but not fully booked yet. Can you help us understand where you in terms of visibility out of the 110, you need targeted? Is it -- how is it covered today? And can you talk about the lead times as we speak? And I have a follow-up.

    是的。所以我的問題是關於(技術問題)你們說已經有很大的訂單量,但還沒有完全入帳(fully booked)。你能幫我們理解一下,就你們目標的 110 台而言,目前能見度到什麼程度?也就是說——今天覆蓋(covered)的情況如何?以及就目前而言,你能談談交期(lead times)嗎?我還有一個追問。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Well, the fact that we say that we investigate 110, we wouldn't investigate 110 if of customers were telling us that, that would be a ridiculous number, right? So we're investigating this simply because customers are signaling to us that the demand is very, very strong.

    嗯,我們之所以說在評估 110 台,是因為如果客戶告訴我們那是個荒謬的數字,我們就不會去評估 110 台,對吧?所以我們之所以評估,是因為客戶向我們釋放的訊號是需求非常、非常強勁。

  • But the fact that we now start talking about having significant order intake for '28 already like two years in advance is pretty strong, right? So that is something that we haven't -- that situation we haven't enjoyed in many, many years. So I think that is a very good underpinning of the strong market dynamics that are currently going on.

    但我們現在開始談到,針對 '28 年在提前兩年就已經有顯著的接單(order intake),這本身就很強勁,對吧?這種情況我們已經很多很多年沒有享受過了。所以我認為,這是目前正在發生的強勁市場動態的一個非常好的支撐基礎。

  • We're not sharing order intakes. I'm not going to give you the coverage number, but I will tell you that the demand signals that we're getting from customers also when it comes to '28 are sufficiently strong for us to seriously investigate this 110 number and the related number on immersion that we signaled to you.

    我們不會分享接單數字。我不會給你覆蓋率(coverage)的數字,但我可以告訴你,我們從客戶那裡收到的需求訊號——包括針對 '28 年——強到足以讓我們認真評估 110 這個數字,以及我們向你們提示過的浸潤式(immersion)相關數字。

  • Stephane Houri - Analyst

    Stephane Houri - Analyst

  • Okay. And about the 75% memory growth in 2026. Can you share with us how much is coming from HBM-driven lithography intensity versus volume addition, i.e., what I'm trying to know if with these investments, the memory manufacturer, your clients are kind of closing the gap between offer and demand or just investing in new technologies like HBM.

    好的。另外關於 2026 年記憶體成長 75%。你能否分享其中有多少來自 HBM 驅動的微影強度提升(lithography intensity),相對於產能/出貨量增加(volume addition)?也就是說,我想了解的是,透過這些投資,記憶體製造商——也就是你們的客戶——是在縮小供給與需求之間的缺口,還是主要在投資像 HBM 這樣的新技術。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Well, I think the demand is really a combination of a lot more volume both for HBM and DDR. I think we have seen some shift between one product to the other recently because the price point of DDR, I think, is extremely strong right now. So there's some optimization at our customers. It's hard to know the exact, I would say, a ratio between the two.

    嗯,我認為需求其實是多種因素的組合:HBM 與 DDR 的出貨量都會增加。我想我們最近也看到兩種產品之間有一些轉移,因為我認為 DDR 的價格點目前非常強勁。所以客戶那邊會做一些最佳化。很難精確知道兩者之間的比例。

  • It doesn't matter that much in terms of technology for us because the DRAM, DRA itself is the same. HBM will require more wafers, so there there's a volume effect again. So that's one element.

    就技術面而言,對我們來說差異沒有那麼大,因為 DRAM 本身是相同的。HBM 會需要更多晶圓,因此那裡又會出現一次量的效應。所以這是一個因素。

  • The second element is, of course, the number of EUV and immersion layer, which has increased basically on the the nodes that are ramping very, very strongly right now. So the 1C node, for example, which is going to be an enormous node or even 1B are using more EUV layers. So this is really this combination, which creates a bit of perfect storm for ASML on DRAM this year and most probably the next few years to come.

    第二個要素當然是 EUV 與浸潤(immersion)層數的數量;在目前正非常、非常強勁爬坡的節點上,這個數量基本上都在增加。例如 1C 節點,將會是非常龐大的節點,甚至 1B,也都在使用更多的 EUV 層。因此,這樣的組合確實在今年、以及很可能接下來幾年,為 ASML 的 DRAM 業務形成了一種近乎「完美風暴」的局面。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Didier Scemama, Bank of America.

    Didier Scemama,美國銀行(Bank of America)。

  • Didier Scemama - Analyst

    Didier Scemama - Analyst

  • So my first question is on '26. When I look at your guidance on unit for merger and EUV as well as the guidance for IDM. I struggled a little bit to get even to the midpoint. So sorry, I'm struggling to not get above the upper end. I apologize.

    所以我第一個問題是關於 2026 年。當我看你們對合併(merger)與 EUV 的出貨台數指引,以及對 IDM 的指引時,我有點難以把數字算到甚至是中位數。所以抱歉,我反而算不出超過上緣。我先致歉。

  • So I'm trying to understand if your ASPs are going higher in Q3, Q4, because of your holisticly so attach rate on software? Or is there any mix impact that is particularly meaningful. And associated with it, when I look at your full year guide gross margin, you're essentially saying that your gross margin exit rate Q4 is around 56% to 58%, which again, would suggest that your mix, your volumes, your software upgrades, et cetera, are very strong. So just trying to understand what's going on in those business systems in particular in Q3, Q4.

    所以我想了解,你們在 Q3、Q4 的 ASP 是否會走高,是因為你們整體上軟體的附掛率(attach rate)提高?或者是否有任何特別顯著的產品組合(mix)影響。另外,當我看你們全年毛利率指引時,你們基本上是在說 Q4 的毛利率退出水準大約在 56% 到 58% 左右;這同樣暗示你們的組合、出貨量、軟體升級等等都非常強。所以只是想了解,特別是在 Q3、Q4 這些業務系統到底發生了什麼。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • It's very hard to validate your number on the phone. But let me tell you that -- if you look at the guidance that we have provided that, of course, there is a little bit of a mix effect in there. I would say, for EUV, we had quite some demodels in the first half, and the mix effect will be a bit more positive in the second half. We'll also have in the second half. We'll have all the 230 configurations in there. So that's going to help a little bit on the ASP side for sure.

    在電話上要核對你的數字非常困難。但我可以告訴你——如果你看我們提供的指引,當然裡面確實有一些組合效應。我會說,就 EUV 而言,我們在上半年有相當多的降規型號(demodels),而下半年的組合效應會更偏正面。另外在下半年,我們也會把所有 230 配置納入。因此這肯定會在 ASP 方面帶來一些幫助。

  • Of course, the immersion number in the second half will be substantially higher than in the first half. As you know, in the first half, immersion was low because we were -- we had decided in 2025 that we were having ZEISS prep for a substantially lower immersion number than what we're currently facing. So we started the year rather weak. We will make up for that quite substantially in the second half of the year.

    當然,下半年的浸潤機台數量會顯著高於上半年。如你所知,上半年浸潤偏低,是因為我們在 2025 年決定讓 ZEISS 依照遠低於目前實際需求的浸潤數量來做準備。所以我們年初的表現相對疲弱。我們會在今年下半年相當大幅度地補回來。

  • So I would say the guidance to get to the guidance is there around 65 EUV tools with a slightly better ASP mix because of what I just mentioned. And of course, immersion will be quite strong in there. And of course, the installed base business, as I also indicated, will grow over 30%. I think if you take all those elements into the mix, you should be able to get to the midpoint that I just talked about.

    所以我會說,要達到指引,主要是約 65 台 EUV 設備,並且因為我剛提到的因素,ASP 的組合會稍微更好一些。當然,浸潤也會相當強勁。此外,正如我也提到的,裝機基礎(installed base)業務將成長超過 30%。我認為如果把這些要素都納入,你應該就能算到我剛剛談到的中位數。

  • In terms of the gross margin, if you do the analysis and if you take midpoint by midpoint, then I think you're looking for the second half at a gross margin of 56% approximately. So we guided 55% to 57% for Q3. So you should be looking midpoint at approximately the same number there for Q4. And why is that? Again, it's the mix because we have quite a bit more immersion and low in AUV in there, one. Two, because we have better priced EUV in there for the second half. Three, because of the installed base business, which remains quite strong.

    就毛利率而言,如果你用中位數對中位數來分析,我想你會看到下半年的毛利率大約是 56%。我們對 Q3 的指引是 55% 到 57%。所以你應該預期 Q4 的中位數大約也是相近的水準。那為什麼會這樣?同樣地,第一是組合,因為我們有更多浸潤、而 AUV 較少。第二是下半年 EUV 的定價更好。第三是裝機基礎業務仍然相當強勁。

  • Four, of course, we have volume effect and the fact that we have so much more volume in the second half than in the first half, obviously, gives you a positive fixed cost coverage. So it's the combination of those four as a result of which you see an improvement of the gross margin in the second half versus the first half.

    第四,當然還有量的效應;下半年的出貨量比上半年大得多,顯然會帶來固定成本吸收(fixed cost coverage)的正面效果。因此,正是這四項因素的組合,使得你看到下半年相較上半年毛利率有所改善。

  • Didier Scemama - Analyst

    Didier Scemama - Analyst

  • Got it. Very clear. And if I take the things that you mentioned in previous question, the mix of EUV tools, et cetera, et cetera. Is there any reason why your gross margin should not go higher, in fact, in '27 than the exit rate of '26? And I guess related to that, any color you can give us on the mix of low NA tools next year, whether you have prominently the E tool or is the F tool capturing more than 50% of the value.

    了解。非常清楚。那如果我把你在前一個問題提到的事情——EUV 設備的組合等等——納入考量,是否有任何理由讓你們的毛利率在 2027 年不會比 2026 年的退出水準更高?另外相關地,你能否談談明年低 NA 機台的組合?你們是否主要是 E 機型,或是 F 機型是否會拿下超過 50% 的價值占比?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • So you would appreciate, I'm not going to give you guidance on the '27 gross margin. But if you look at the main drivers that I just gave you for why the second half is better than the first half, on the mix effect within EUV, of course, that should only be better because, as I mentioned, next year, we're going to get a mix of Es and Fs.

    你也能理解,我不會提供 2027 年毛利率的指引。但如果你看我剛剛給你的、為什麼下半年比上半年更好的主要驅動因素,在 EUV 內部的組合效應方面,當然只會更好,因為如我提到的,明年我們會有 E 與 F 的組合。

  • I think it will primarily be [JBEs]. There will be a number of Fs in there, but the lion's share of the tools next year are going to be Es. Nonetheless, the mix next year will be better than the mix this year and will be better than the mix even in the second half of the year.

    我認為主要會是[JBEs]。其中會有一些 F,但明年設備的絕大多數將會是 E。儘管如此,明年的組合會比今年更好,也會比今年下半年更好。

  • If you look at immersion and EUV, well, given that we're talking about planning for 30% more, emerging 30% EUV, then I would argue that, that shouldn't disappoint, right? If indeed we're able to get those done. Then clearly, our high-margin scanner products with the 30% increase that we just talked about should be positive in there.

    如果你看浸潤與 EUV,嗯,鑑於我們談的是規劃浸潤增加 30%、EUV 增加 30%,那我會認為這應該不會讓人失望,對吧?如果我們確實能把這些做出來,那麼很明顯,我們高毛利的掃描器產品在剛剛提到的 30% 增幅下,應該會帶來正面貢獻。

  • The volume effect, of course, the fixed cost coverage, you should get that effect, right, if indeed we're going up 30% in those two businesses. And then the swing factor, of course, is the installed base business, which, of course, the service component of the installed base business could be strong, right, because that simply grows with the -- that grows with the installed base, almost by definition. So that part should be strong.

    量的效應當然也是——固定成本吸收——如果這兩項業務確實都成長 30%,你就應該會看到那個效果,對吧。然後,變動因子(swing factor)當然是裝機基礎業務;裝機基礎業務中的服務部分可能會很強,對吧,因為那基本上會隨著——幾乎按定義——隨著裝機基礎而成長。所以那一塊應該會很強。

  • And then the question is how strong will the upgrade business be, which in the current climate is very, very strong because customers are looking for productivity. So in the current market dynamics, you could realistically assume that. So that's a quantitative description of the different components. Again, we're not going to guide gross margin.

    接著問題是升級業務會有多強;在目前的環境下它非常、非常強,因為客戶在追求生產力。所以在目前的市場動態下,你可以相當務實地做這樣的假設。以上是對不同組成部分的量化描述。再次強調,我們不會提供毛利率指引。

  • But if your perspective on '27 is that yet that will be a bullish market where customers are looking for a lot of -- for capacity expansion, then you could argue that the drivers of the gross margin that I just gave you should also be strong in next year.

    但如果你對 2027 年的看法是:那將是一個偏多頭的市場,客戶會尋求大量——尋求產能擴張,那麼你可以認為,我剛剛給你的那些毛利率驅動因素在明年也應該會很強。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nigel van Putten, Morgan Stanley.

    Nigel van Putten,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)。

  • Nigel van Putten - Analyst

    Nigel van Putten - Analyst

  • Got a follow-up question on the difference between boxes and productivity. Super helpful that you laid that out, 30% unit growth, about 45% on the actually productivity that you are shipping to customers. Now beyond productivity, I think 3,800 is also providing overlay improvements. I think in the past, those were a little bit more difficult in discussions with customers.

    我有一個關於機台數量(boxes)與生產力(productivity)差異的追問。你把這點說得很清楚、非常有幫助:單位出貨量成長 30%,而實際交付給客戶的生產力大約成長 45%。那麼除了生產力之外,我認為 3,800 也在提供疊對(overlay)方面的改善。我覺得過去在與客戶討論時,這些內容會比較難談。

  • But I'm assuming that if you look at the outlook today and given your previous comments that maybe 45% productivity is really the lower end of what we should model for revenue in terms of EUV over that period. That's my first question.

    但我的假設是,如果你看今天的展望,再加上你先前的評論,也許 45% 的生產力其實是我們在那段期間、就 EUV 相關營收建模時應採用的下緣。這是我的第一個問題。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Yes. I'm not going to guide in any way the business for next year. I think we've said what we wanted to say about what we plan for in next year. And we're not going to translate that into euro months yet. I think you're very well capable of putting that into your model.

    是的。我不會以任何方式對明年的業務做指引。我想我們已經說了我們想說的、關於我們對明年的規劃。而我們也還不會把那個轉換成「歐元月」(euro months)。我想你完全有能力把它放進你的模型裡。

  • Nigel van Putten - Analyst

    Nigel van Putten - Analyst

  • Percent is great. I think you're implying 3,800 apps pretty much only in 2028, which makes sense. I mean, high productivity -- it's just that given the commentary, I think in the past, it was sort of a straightforward as almost that productivity gains are shared.

    用百分比很好。我覺得你的意思是 3,800 的應用幾乎只會在 2028 年出現,這也合理。我的意思是,高生產力——只是基於這些評論,我覺得過去的說法比較像是:生產力提升幾乎是直接、而且會被分享的。

  • I'm just trying to get a better sense of -- there's more than just productivity in dental throughput, there's overlay improvements, et cetera. And just thinking if that is what we should think about when you say there's more flexibility in pricing.

    我只是想更清楚了解——在晶圓產出(throughput)之外,不只有生產力,還有疊對改善等等。我在想,當你說定價有更大的彈性時,我們是否應該把這些也納入考量。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • No, the only thing is -- of course, we've always been able to show customers not just productivity upgrades, but also the value from better imaging, the better the value of better overlay, et cetera. And then, as you know, we've always shared the value with the customer in an equitable way and in a certain way. And the way that resulted was that you got this very strong correlation between throughput improvement and ASP.

    不,唯一的事情是——當然,我們一直都能向客戶展示的不只是生產力升級,還包括更好的成像(imaging)、更好的疊對(overlay)等所帶來的價值。然後如你所知,我們一直以公平、且以某種方式與客戶分享這些價值。而最終呈現出來的結果,就是你會看到產出提升與 ASP(平均售價)之間非常強的相關性。

  • I mean that's just the way things pan out, which put in another way, customers were paying for the productivity upgrades and the value that we give them for free was the value associated with, let's say, overlay improvement imaging quality and what have you. That's sort of the way things historically panned out.

    我的意思是,事情就是這樣發展的;換句話說,客戶是在為生產力升級付費,而我們免費提供給他們的價值,則是與例如疊對改善、成像品質等等相關的價值。這大致就是歷史上事情的走向。

  • And there's no reason to believe that that's going to be dramatically different other than what I -- what we said earlier on, which -- that in the current environment with the value that we bring obviously are also having conversations with customers on how we get rewarded for the additional value.

    而沒有理由相信這會出現劇烈不同,除了我——我們先前提到的:在目前的環境下,基於我們帶來的價值,我們也確實在與客戶討論,我們如何能因為額外的價值而獲得回報。

  • Nigel van Putten - Analyst

    Nigel van Putten - Analyst

  • Very clear. Maybe a quick follow-up on installed base. Thank you for quantifying the outlook for the year. It certainly feels like another upgrade. And this business, I think, has been trending better for a while now also last year. So I mean, we know the productivity increase of the tool, very helpful the data you provide, but what I kind of is lacking is in terms of some which maybe help us with this in terms of the current configurations that you see as you sort of look at current fleet configurations at customers.

    非常清楚。也許再快速追問一下已裝機基礎(installed base)。謝謝你量化今年的展望。這確實讓人感覺像是又一次升級循環。而我認為這個業務趨勢改善已經有一段時間了,去年也是如此。所以我的意思是,我們知道工具的生產力提升,你提供的數據很有幫助,但我覺得比較缺的是:就你們觀察到的客戶端現有機隊配置(fleet configurations)而言,能否提供一些資訊來幫助我們理解。

  • How big is that opportunity in terms of upgrading and given there's a strong need from customers to increase capacity of the tools, given limited clean room. I guess there perhaps a plan in place to make this more of an agreement of sorts in terms of getting better planned installed base upgrades and some more visibility also for you guys to be able to service that demand?

    就升級機會而言,這個機會有多大?以及考量到客戶在潔淨室(clean room)受限的情況下,對提升工具產能有很強的需求。我想是否可能有某種計畫,讓這件事更像是一種協議安排,以便更有計畫地推動已裝機升級,並讓你們也能有更多可視性來服務這個需求?

  • Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think that you said it. So the key element today is that customer wants to get more capacity on their existing fab as quickly as possible. So this creates really strong condition for system upgrade. That's true this year. I think we see that in our number. This will be still true next year and mostly beyond that.

    嗯,我想你已經把重點說出來了。所以今天的關鍵要素是:客戶希望在既有晶圓廠(fab)上,盡快取得更多產能。因此這為系統升級創造了非常強的條件。今年是如此。我想我們在數字上也看得到。明年仍會如此,而且大多在那之後也會持續。

  • So the need for capacity on a very successful advanced node is there. The upgrade product we are developing are covering all the dividend version of our EUV low NA or immersion systems. So we are really capable basically to provide product to our customers that can be implemented to every single version of our EUV or emergent tool.

    所以,在非常成功的先進節點上,對產能的需求是存在的。我們正在開發的升級產品,涵蓋我們 EUV 低 NA 或浸潤式(immersion)系統的所有不同版本。因此基本上,我們確實有能力向客戶提供可導入到每一個版本 EUV 或浸潤式工具上的產品。

  • And today, we see a very strong acceptance of those products to the point that we have many discussion where we are being requested to try to accelerate that and create new product which we plan to do in '27 and even '28. So I will say as long as we continue to experience this huge demand existing nodes on the constraints of their existing fab, I think we would expect that the demand for those products will be very strong.

    而今天,我們看到這些產品獲得非常強的接受度,甚至到了我們有很多討論是客戶要求我們嘗試加速,並開發我們計畫在 2027 年、甚至 2028 年推出的新產品。所以我會說,只要我們持續看到既有節點在既有晶圓廠受限條件下仍有龐大需求,我們就會預期這些產品的需求會非常強勁。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tammy Qiu, Berenberg.

    Tammy Qiu,Berenberg。

  • Tammy Qiu - Analyst

    Tammy Qiu - Analyst

  • So the first one is based on our feedback, investments usually compare your growth to the (inaudible) equipment spending growth. And based on our understanding, this year, you have a lot of upgrade because some customers we lack of clean room, et cetera.

    第一個問題是,根據我們收到的回饋,投資人通常會把你們的成長與(聽不清)設備支出成長做比較。而依我們的理解,今年你們有很多升級,因為部分客戶缺乏潔淨室等。

  • And in 2027 and '28, in theory, we are having more plenum coming out of the space. So therefore, there will be more greenfield investment. Do you think you'll be therefore in a better position to grow comparing to AAC comparing to what we have seen in 2026?

    而在 2027 與 2028 年,理論上我們會有更多空間釋出。因此,會有更多綠地(greenfield)投資。你認為相較於我們在 2026 年看到的情況,你們是否會因此處於更有利的位置、相較於 AAC 而有更好的成長?

  • Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Tammy, the sound is not very good. I don't think we understood your question. I apologize. Can you try again, maybe make it a bit shorter or so.

    是的。Tammy,聲音不是很清楚。我想我們沒有理解你的問題。很抱歉。你可以再試一次嗎?也許把它講得更短一些。

  • Tammy Qiu - Analyst

    Tammy Qiu - Analyst

  • Yes, sure, sorry. So basically, 2026 has a lot of clean room constraints. And 2027 and '28 will be more clean rooms space than greenfield expansion. And in my view, that puts you in a better position to outgrow WFE or at least grow in line with WFE. Do you think coming into '27 and '28, you'll be able to outgrow or grow more than WFE for your business comparing to 2026?

    好的,當然,抱歉。基本上,2026 年有很多潔淨室限制。而 2027 與 2028 年會有更多潔淨室空間,並帶來綠地擴張。在我看來,這會讓你們處於更有利的位置,能夠跑贏 WFE,或至少與 WFE 同步成長。你認為進入 2027 與 2028 年,你們的業務相較於 2026 年,是否能夠跑贏或成長高於 WFE?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • I mean we -- as you know, we never comment on WFE. We comment on our own plans on the demand as we see it. And I think we give you all the parameters on our end, what we're working towards. And I'm sure you have your own expectation where WFE is going and just compare that. But we think that with the 30% number that we just indicated, we think we're contributing to the demand that our customers are having.

    我的意思是——如你所知,我們從不評論 WFE。我們評論的是我們自己的計畫,以及我們所看到的需求。我想我們已經把我們這邊的所有參數都提供給你了,也就是我們正在努力達成的方向。我相信你對 WFE 的走向也有你自己的預期,然後你可以拿來做比較。但我們認為,基於我們剛剛指出的 30% 這個數字,我們是在對客戶的需求做出貢獻。

  • Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. The only little detail, I will stress again maybe to help you is when it comes to advanced DRAM when it comes to advanced logic, we see our litho intensity increase. So the demand for more EUV or more immersion and so maybe that helps you a bit to answer the question. Every time you convert multi-patterning to single-exposed EV, for example, there is a shift, of course, from nonlist litho. So I think that's maybe one element to help you in your calculations.

    是的。我再強調一個小細節,或許能幫到你:在先進 DRAM 與先進邏輯(logic)方面,我們看到微影(litho)強度在提升。因此對更多 EUV 或更多浸潤式(immersion)的需求也會增加,這或許能稍微幫你回答這個問題。例如,每當你把多重圖形化(multi-patterning)轉換成單次曝光 EUV(single-exposed EUV),當然就會從非微影(nonlitho)轉移。所以我想這可能是你在計算時可以納入的一個因素。

  • Tammy Qiu - Analyst

    Tammy Qiu - Analyst

  • Okay. And the second question is on High-NA. So for the time being, Intel seems to be the main high customer for Logic. And we've been hearing more from DRAM customers. Do you think there is a chance that DRAM group will be a bigger customer for earlier than Logic?

    好的。第二個問題是關於 High-NA。所以就目前來看,英特爾似乎是邏輯(Logic)領域的主要 High-NA 客戶。而我們也聽到來自 DRAM 客戶更多的聲音。你認為 DRAM 團隊有可能在比邏輯更早的時間成為更大的客戶嗎?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Well, I don't know if there will be bigger or not. I think what we see is, of course, that both technologies are qualifying equally INA today. So we talked about Intel today. I think that Intel was first to get the technology, so they are first implemented in production. As we speak, there is a lot of work down to qualify the technology on product wafer.

    嗯,我不知道會不會更大。我想我們看到的是,當然,兩種技術目前都在同樣地進行 INA 的認證。所以我們今天談到了英特爾。我認為英特爾最先取得這項技術,所以他們也最先在量產中導入。就目前而言,還有大量工作要做,以在產品晶圓上完成這項技術的認證。

  • So the opportunity for DRAM is significant also because the volume is also significant. But there's no real change there. I think we still see both Logic and DRAM being a good candidate for High NA. The reason for that is both DRAM and advanced logic will be shifting more and more towards multi-patterning, low NA over time. So that's applied to both basically.

    因此,DRAM 的機會也很大,因為其出貨量也相當可觀。但那裡並沒有真正的變化。我想我們仍然認為邏輯與 DRAM 都是 High-NA 的良好候選者。原因在於,隨著時間推移,DRAM 與先進邏輯都將越來越多地轉向多重圖形化(multi-patterning)、低 NA。所以基本上兩者都適用。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

    Chris Caso,Wolfe Research。

  • Chris Caso - Analyst

    Chris Caso - Analyst

  • First question is about the capacity additions. And basically, how long does it take to affect the capacity additions, if you were to take a decision now to add more capacity when would that capacity be effective for shipment. And if you can go through some of the steps that you would need to take, I suppose that -- I would suppose that supply chain would be a big part of any decisions to add capacity.

    第一個問題是關於產能擴增。基本上,如果你們現在決定增加更多產能,需要多久才會反映到產能擴增上,也就是說,新增產能何時能夠開始有效支援出貨?另外,如果可以的話,能否說明你們需要採取的一些步驟;我想——我會假設供應鏈會是任何擴產決策中的重要部分。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Yes. It's -- Chris, it's a combination, right? So we have -- as Christophe said, obviously, we're doing work here. So we're freeing up cabin, so making sure that cabins are fully dedicated to output. Right now, we will also have prototypes and R&D tools in cabin. So finding another home for those tools such that all the cabins that we have here are fully dedicated to output.

    是的。Chris,這是多種因素的組合,對吧?所以我們——如 Christophe 所說,顯然我們正在這裡做一些工作。我們正在釋放機艙(cabin)產能,確保機艙完全專注於產出。目前我們也會在機艙內放置原型機與研發工具。因此要為那些工具找到另一個安置地點,讓我們現有的所有機艙都能完全用於產出。

  • We're looking at reducing cycle time. So those are the key things that we're doing here within ASML. And of course, we're working with our supply chain to in essence, and make sure that they do the same things. Christophe said, they've made -- as we did, they've made big investments in the past on what we call the long lead time items. So now it's just leveraging those investments from the past and making sure that we get the maximum out of that capacity.

    我們也在縮短週期時間(cycle time)。所以這些是我們在 ASML 內部正在做的關鍵事項。當然,我們也在與供應鏈合作,本質上是確保他們也做同樣的事情。Christophe 提到,他們已經——就像我們一樣——過去在我們所稱的長交期項目(long lead time items)上做了大量投資。所以現在就是運用過去的投資,並確保把那部分產能的效益發揮到最大。

  • And in terms of how long does it take? Well, I think the 30% that we talked about gives you a good proxy for that, you will -- in essence, as we've said before, every year, you will see us and with a move rate that is higher than the move rate that we entered the year-end. So we're continuously building up move rate quarter-on-quarter. And the end result of the plans as we currently have it, is the 30% that we mentioned for next year and the 30% that we're investigating for 2028. So that's the answer, I think, to the timing question that you just asked.

    至於需要多久?我想我們提到的 30% 可以作為一個很好的參考,你會——本質上,如同我們之前說過的,每一年你都會看到我們的 move rate 高於我們進入該年度時的 move rate。所以我們會持續逐季提升 move rate。而以我們目前的計畫來看,最終結果就是我們提到的明年 30%,以及我們正在評估的 2028 年 30%。所以我想,這就是你剛才問的時程問題的答案。

  • Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • As a follow-up, I have a question on pricing and a clarification from some of your prior comments. And I think you were very clear about the mix effect of low NA EUV on the higher throughput tools where you get higher proportionately higher ASPs. Is there also any potential for higher ASPs on a like-for-like basis. And the reason why I ask is because you are taking steps to add capacity, you're rolling up your sleeves, as you say, would that potentially result in higher like-for-like ASPs as you increase your cost to do what the customers are asking.

    追問一下,我有一個關於定價的問題,以及對你們先前一些評論的澄清。我認為你們對於低 NA EUV 在更高吞吐量機台上的組合效應(mix effect)講得很清楚,因為那會帶來相對更高的 ASP。那麼,在同規格(like-for-like)的基礎上,是否也有更高 ASP 的可能性?我之所以這樣問,是因為你們正在採取措施增加產能,你們說你們正在捲起袖子去做;那是否可能導致在同規格比較下的 ASP 上升,因為你們為了滿足客戶要求而增加了成本?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Well, as I mentioned before, in the current environment where there is a lot of value for customers for what we bring them we believe the potential to capture a larger share of that value or at least to capture our share of that larger value. It gives you better pricing power. So those are the conversations that we're currently having with customers. So as I mentioned, not tomorrow, but over time, you should be able to see the improvement there.

    嗯,如我之前提到的,在目前這個環境下,我們為客戶帶來的價值很高;我們相信有機會取得那個價值中更大的一部分,或者至少取得我們在那個更大價值中的應得份額。這會帶來更好的定價能力。所以這些就是我們目前正在與客戶進行的對話。因此如我所說,不是明天就會發生,但隨著時間推移,你應該能看到那方面的改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna.

    Mehdi Hosseini,Susquehanna。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

  • Yes. I have two follow-up questions, and this is for the team, Christophe and Roger. As we think about this migration from E to F, which seems to be accelerating in the second half of '27, how your customers are deciding between upgrading an existing E platform versus purchasing an F system. And I'm asking this question because both of these have a similar configuration. The base system is very much similar.

    是的。我有兩個追問,這是問團隊的,Christophe 和 Roger。當我們思考從 E 到 F 的遷移,而這似乎在 27 年下半年加速時,你們的客戶如何在升級既有的 E 平台與購買一套 F 系統之間做決策?我之所以問,是因為兩者的配置相近。基礎系統非常相似。

  • And I just want to understand how customers would prefer upgrade or just go for a complete new system purchase? And I have a follow-up.

    我只是想了解,客戶會更偏好升級,還是直接購買一套全新的系統?我還有一個追問。

  • Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think the answer to the question today is very simple. It's really end. So I think that our customer wants to buy the fastest possible tool. This is why we had a pretty fast migration towards the 3,800. I think this has become today the two customer really wants and they also want to upgrade the existing system because typically, they sit on different technologies.

    我想今天這個問題的答案很簡單。就是看最終需求(end)。所以我認為我們的客戶想買到最快的機台。這也是為什麼我們很快就遷移到 3,800。我想這已經成為今天客戶真正想要的東西,而他們也想升級既有系統,因為通常那些系統對應的是不同的技術節點。

  • So the new tool moving forward are going to 2-nanometer and and then we'll go to 1.4, while a lot of the upgrade will be for the notes that come before that. So we are really in the end situation today. And the appetite for both upgrade but also for faster tool is high. So what will define the transition from E to F is going to be, again, the maturity of the platform and then our ability to ramp going from E to F. But that's very, I would say, very normal.

    因此,往後的新機台將用於 2 奈米,接著會走向 1.4;而許多升級則會用在更早之前的節點。所以我們今天確實處於一個最終需求導向的情況。而對於升級以及更快機台的需求都很高。因此,E 到 F 的轉換將取決於——再次強調——平台的成熟度,以及我們從 E 轉到 F 的量產爬坡能力。但我會說,這是非常正常的。

  • That's what we have done with the E. But today, our customers, I think short answer, they want both and they want as much as both as possible.

    這就是我們在 E 上所做的事。但今天,我認為我們的客戶——簡短回答——兩者都要,而且希望兩者都盡可能多。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

  • Let me rephrase the question. Would it be fair to say that F is more geared towards 1.4 or below 2-nanometer and assuming that the 2-nanometer remain strong, your customers don't want to bring the line down and would prefer to actually purchase a new tool, especially for below 2-nanometer.

    我換個方式問。是否可以這麼說:F 更偏向用於 1.4 或低於 2 奈米;並且假設 2 奈米仍然強勁,你們的客戶不想讓產線停下來,反而會更傾向購買新機台,特別是用於低於 2 奈米的部分。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Well, I think the F will certainly be used for 1.4 nanometer because the timing is matching basically the timing of the F. For 2 nanometer, I think what we also allow between the E and F is to what we call mix and match the product. So when it comes to imaging overlay, the customer wants to see a difference. They will just see a faster tool. So that also means that when the tool is ready, if there's need for more capacity for 2-nanometer than the F would definitely be an option as well.

    嗯,我想 F 肯定會用於 1.4 奈米,因為時程基本上與 F 的時程相匹配。至於 2 奈米,我想我們在 E 與 F 之間也提供了我們所謂的 mix and match 產品的能力。所以在成像疊對(imaging overlay)方面,客戶希望看到差異。他們會看到的就是一台更快的機台。這也意味著,當機台準備就緒時,如果 2 奈米需要更多產能,那 F 也絕對會是一個選項。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And what's the updated assumption for High-NA EUV system and recognized this year, 2026?

    好的。那麼,對於 High-NA EUV 系統在今年(2026 年)出貨並認列的最新假設是什麼?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • You mean the number of tools that we referenced is this year? We've said 4 to 5. Yes, 4 to 5 is still for this year.

    你是指我們提到的工具數量是今年的嗎?我們說過是 4 到 5 台。是的,4 到 5 台仍然是今年的數字。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • C.J. Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

    C.J. Muse,Cantor Fitzgerald。

  • C.J. Muse - Analyst

    C.J. Muse - Analyst

  • Operating leverage has been, I think, an increasing focus in terms of how you've been talking to The Street, and we're clearly seeing in the numbers here with top line, 35% growth and OpEx implicitly grown only about 6%. And so I'm curious, as you think about looking into '27 and beyond, should we be kind of thinking that this 60% incremental op margin is kind of the target that you're going after? And I would love to hear your thoughts on that.

    營運槓桿我認為已成為你們與華爾街溝通時越來越重點的議題,而我們也清楚從這裡的數字看到:營收成長 35%,而營運費用(OpEx)隱含只成長約 6%。因此我想請教,當你們展望 2027 年及之後時,我們是否應該把這種 60% 的增量營業利益率視為你們努力追求的目標?也很希望聽聽你們對此的看法。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Yes, C.J., we're not going to quantify that guidance. But you are right that we have been managing our OpEx quite nicely, so SG&A and R&D. You also know that we said that we believe that if we look at the R&D team that we have today, we believe that also with the reorganization that we talked about before, that we can get even more value out of the team than what we enjoyed so far. So we believe that with the current team that we have in R&D, there is a lot of value and a lot of innovation road map that we can still pursue.

    是的,C.J.,我們不會對那樣的指引做量化。但你說得沒錯,我們確實把 OpEx 管理得相當好,包括 SG&A 與 R&D。你也知道我們曾說過,若看我們目前的研發團隊,我們相信再加上先前提到的重組,我們能從這個團隊中取得比迄今更多的價值。因此我們相信,以目前的研發團隊而言,仍有很大的價值,以及仍有許多創新路線圖可以持續推進。

  • So if you contrast the way we've done it in the past, in the past, we increased the head count of R&D quite substantially. I would say that today, we believe that with the team that we have today, we can really entertain a very aggressive road map going forward. So well, no, I think you will continue to see us manage both R&D and SG&A quite nicely. And as a result of that, the operating leverage that you imply, I think the operating leverage will indeed become better in the quarters and the years to come.

    如果你對照我們過去的做法,過去我們大幅增加研發人力。我會說,今天我們相信以目前的團隊,我們確實可以支撐一個非常積極的未來路線圖。所以,嗯,不,我認為你們會持續看到我們把研發與 SG&A 都管理得相當好。因此,就你所暗示的營運槓桿而言,我認為未來幾季與未來幾年,營運槓桿確實會變得更好。

  • C.J. Muse - Analyst

    C.J. Muse - Analyst

  • Very helpful. And then I guess on your manufacturing footprint, I guess a couple of quick questions. Number one, what would it take for you to actually look to add there? And then, I guess, number two, what's the fungibility around mirrors and other optics between low NA and high NA. And just curious, if you are kind of sold out on low NA, does that create the situation where customers really desperate for supply might adopt High NA sooner.

    非常有幫助。接著我想就你們的製造據點問幾個很快的問題。第一,你們要在什麼情況下才會考慮實際擴增那邊的產能?第二,低 NA 與高 NA 之間,鏡面與其他光學元件的可互換性(fungibility)如何?另外也想請教,如果你們低 NA 已經滿載(sold out),是否會造成客戶在供應非常吃緊時,可能更早採用 High NA。

  • Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think maybe starting with the second question. I think that as the maturity of the High NA platform improve, then, of course, in become a potential option also for capacity. And I think that's an option that will become more and more value over time because the tool at some point of time will cross this maturity threshold. And if it does, it can do the job. And as I explained before, can even provide some benefit.

    嗯,我想也許先從第二個問題開始。我認為隨著 High NA 平台成熟度提升,當然它也會成為產能配置的一個潛在選項。而我認為這個選項會隨時間變得越來越有價值,因為設備在某個時間點會跨越成熟度門檻。一旦跨過,它就能勝任相關工作。而且如我先前解釋的,甚至還能帶來一些效益。

  • So I think that's, I would say, potentially another opportunity moving forward, assuming that we continue the good progress we have seen on maturity. It's one of the reasons also our customers are testing the tool on product, as you have seen with the press release about Intel today. So that's maybe for the second question.

    所以我認為,假設我們在成熟度方面持續維持目前看到的良好進展,這可能會是未來的另一個機會。這也是為什麼我們的客戶正在把這台設備拿到產品上做測試,正如你今天從 Intel 的新聞稿所看到的。所以這大概回答第二個問題。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • For the first question, so in terms of our own footprint, as Christophe said, the way we try to increase our capacity is primarily within the current parameter. So we are building, we are breaking ground in this year. We expect to break ground this year on a new campus that many of you are aware of, but that really is, I would say, beyond 2028, right? So that is not what we're doing in order to get to the (technical difficulty) numbers that we shared. So in essence, the capability improvement that we were talking about, we want to achieve that within the current parameter.

    至於第一個問題,也就是我們自身的據點(footprint),如 Christophe 所說,我們提升產能的方式主要是在現有範圍內進行。所以我們正在建設,我們今年會動工。我們預期今年會在一個你們很多人都知道的新園區破土動工,但那我會說是 2028 年之後的事,對吧?所以那並不是我們為了達到我們分享的(technical difficulty)數字而採取的作法。因此本質上,我們所談的產能提升,希望在現有範圍內達成。

  • In terms of the fungibility of equipment for High NA and low NA, particularly when it comes to ZIA because that's the way a CGI I interpret your question, that really isn't there. It's totally different tools that you need that SIS needs to produce a high NA optic versus low NA optics. So it's not that there is fungibility that you can use tools to get more low NA output. That's not going to work.

    至於 High NA 與 low NA 的設備可互換性,特別是談到 ZIA,因為我理解 C.J. 你的問題是這個方向,其實並不存在。SIS 要生產 high NA 光學元件與 low NA 光學元件,所需要的是完全不同的設備。所以並不是說有可互換性,可以用同一套設備來提高 low NA 的產出。那是行不通的。

  • Jim Kavanagh - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Jim Kavanagh - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Okay. Then thank you, Christophe. Thank you, Roger. Thank you for everybody participating and asking the questions. If you are unable to get through on the call and still have questions, please feel free to contact ASML Investor Relations with your questions.

    好的。那麼謝謝你,Christophe。謝謝你,Roger。也謝謝所有參與並提問的各位。如果你未能在電話會議中順利提問但仍有問題,歡迎隨時聯繫 ASML 投資人關係提出你的問題。

  • So again, thank you all for joining us. And if I could ask the operator to formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thank you very much.

    再次感謝各位加入我們。如果我可以請接線員正式結束本次電話會議,我將不勝感激。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes the ASML 2026 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。本次 ASML 2026 年第二季財務結果電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。你現在可以掛線。

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