艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to ASML 2025 third-quarter financial results conference call on October 15, 2025. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加2025年10月15日ASML 2025年第三季財務業績電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference call over to Mr. Jim Kavanagh. Please go ahead.

現在我想將電話會議交給吉姆·卡瓦納先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Jim Kavanagh, Head of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today at the call are ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet; and CFO, Roger Dassen.

謝謝您，接線生。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係主管 Jim Kavanagh。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ASML 的執行長 Christophe Fouquet 和財務長 Roger Dassen。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2025 third-quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at www.asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2025 年第三季業績。此次通話時間為 60 分鐘，問題將依照收到的順序進行解答。本次電話會議也將透過www.asml.com網站進行現場直播。管理層的開場白及會議重播將在電話會議結束後不久在我們的網站發布。

Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at www.asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。有關風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明可以在我們的網站 www.asml.com 上找到，也可以在 ASML 的 20-F 表年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Christophe for a brief introduction.

說完這些，我想把電話交給克里斯托夫，讓他做一個簡單的介紹。

Thank you, Jim. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2025 results conference call. Let me start by saying how pleased I am with the recent announcement of the reappointment of both Roger Dassen and Frédéric Schneider-Maunoury to the Board of Management.

謝謝你，吉姆。歡迎大家，感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第三季業績電話會議。首先，我對最近宣布重新任命羅傑·達森 (Roger Dassen) 和弗雷德里克·施奈德-莫諾裡 (Frédéric Sc​​hneider-Maunoury) 為管理委員會成員感到非常高興。

We also announced last week the appointment of Marco Pieters as our Chief Technology Officer. This appointment is part of our robust succession planning process, and with over 25 years of experience at ASML, Marco brings a proven track record in technology leadership. Marco will take on the responsibility of driving our technology roadmap forward in support of our customers, and I look forward to our continued collaboration.

我們上週也宣布任命 Marco Pieters 為我們的技術長。此次任命是我們強而有力的繼任計畫流程的一部分，Marco 在 ASML 擁有超過 25 年的經驗，在技術領導方面擁有良好的業績記錄。Marco 將承擔起推動我們的技術路線圖向前發展以支持我們的客戶的責任，我期待我們繼續合作。

In addition, ASML Supervisory Board announced that it intends to appoint Marco to the Board of Management as of the company next Annual General Meeting to be held on April 22, 2026. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the third quarter results as well as provide some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook. Roger?

此外，ASML 監事會宣布，計劃自 2026 年 4 月 22 日舉行的公司下次年度股東大會起任命 Marco 為管理委員會成員。在我們開始問答環節之前，羅傑和我想對第三季的業績進行概述和評論，並對當前的商業環境和我們未來的業務前景提供一些額外的評論。羅傑？

Thank you, Christophe, and welcome, everyone. Let me start with our third quarter accomplishments. In the third quarter of 2025, total net sales were EUR7.5 billion, which is within our guidance. Net system sales were at EUR5.6 billion, which includes EUR2.1 billion from EUV system sales, including 1 High NA system and EUR3.4 billion from non-EUV business sales.

謝謝你，克里斯托夫，歡迎大家。讓我先從我們第三季的成就開始。2025 年第三季度，總淨銷售額為 75 億歐元，符合我們的預期。淨系統銷售額為 56 億歐元，其中包括 EUV 系統銷售額 21 億歐元（包括 1 個高 NA 系統）和非 EUV 業務銷售額 34 億歐元。

Net system sales were driven by logic at 65% with the remaining 35% coming from memory. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in as guided at EUR2 billion. Gross margin for the quarter was also within guidance at 51.6%. For operating expenses, R&D expenses came in a bit below guidance at EUR1.1 billion due to declining of spending and SG&A expenses basically came in as guided at EUR303 million.

淨系統銷售額的 65% 由邏輯驅​​動，其餘 35% 來自記憶體。本季安裝基礎管理銷售額達到預期的 20 億歐元。本季毛利率也達到預期的 51.6%。對於營運費用，由於支出下降，研發費用略低於預期，為 11 億歐元，而銷售、一般及行政費用基本符合預期，為 3.03 億歐元。

The effective tax rate for Q3 was 17.8%, for the full year 2025, we continue to expect an annualized effective tax rate of around 17%. Net income in Q3 was EUR2.1 billion, representing 28.3% of total net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR5.49.

第三季的有效稅率為 17.8%，對於 2025 年全年，我們繼續預期年化有效稅率在 17% 左右。第三季淨收入為 21 億歐元，佔總淨銷售額的 28.3%，每股收益為 5.49 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the third quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR5.1 billion.

談到資產負債表，我們在第三季末的現金、現金等價物和短期投資水準為 51 億歐元。

Moving to the order book. Q3 net system bookings came in at EUR5.4 billion, split between EUR3.6 billion of EUV systems and EUR1.8 billion of non-EUV systems. Net system bookings in the quarter were slightly weighted towards Logic at 53%, while memory accounts for the remaining 47%.

移至訂單簿。第三季淨系統訂單金額為 54 億歐元，其中 EUV 系統訂單額為 36 億歐元，非 EUV 系統訂單金額為 18 億歐元。本季淨系統預訂量略微偏向邏輯，佔 53%，而記憶體佔剩餘的 47%。

In Q3, ASML paid the first interim dividend over 2025 of EUR1.60 per ordinary share. The second quarterly interim dividend over 2025 will also be EUR1.60 per ordinary share and will be made payable on November 6, 2025. In Q3, 2025, we purchased shares for a total amount of around EUR148 million.

第三季度，ASML 派發了 2025 年第一筆中期股息，每股普通股 1.60 歐元。2025 年第二季中期股利也將為每股普通股 1.60 歐元，並將於 2025 年 11 月 6 日支付。2025 年第三季度，我們買了總價值約 1.48 億歐元的股票。

As of September 28, 2025, ASML has acquired 9 million of shares under this program for a total amount of EUR5.9 billion. ASML does not expect to complete the EUR12 billion share buyback program in full within 2022, 2025 time frame. We intend to announce a new share buyback program in January 2026.

截至2025年9月28日，ASML已根據該計畫收購了900萬股股票，總金額達59億歐元。 ASML預計無法在 2022 年、2025 年期間全面完成 120 億歐元的股票回購計畫。我們計劃於 2026 年 1 月宣布一項新的股票回購計畫。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025. We expect Q4 total net sales to be between EUR9.2 billion and EUR9.8 billion. We expect our Q4 installed base management sales to be around EUR2.1 billion. As previously discussed, we expect Q4 to be a very strong quarter, as was the case in Q4 of last year. Gross margin for Q4 is expected to be between 51% and 53%.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2025 年第四季的預期。我們預計第四季總淨銷售額將在 92 億歐元至 98 億歐元之間。我們預計第四季度安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 21 億歐元。正如之前所討論的，我們預計第四季度將是一個非常強勁的季度，就像去年第四季的情況一樣。預計第四季毛利率在51%至53%之間。

The expected R&D expenses for Q4 are around EUR1.2 billion, and SG&A is expected to be around EUR320 million. For the full year, we continue to expect total net sales to be around EUR32.5 billion with a gross margin of around 52%.

第四季預計研發費用約12億歐元，SG&A費用預計約3.2億歐元。就全年而言，我們繼續預期總淨銷售額約為 325 億歐元，毛利率約為 52%。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Christophe.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給克里斯托夫。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, we finished the third quarter with good financial results. Looking now to the market, there has been a positive news flow across the industry in recent months that has helped to reduce the level of uncertainty that we were reporting last quarter.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的，我們第三季的財務表現良好。現在放眼市場，整個行業近幾個月來都出現了積極的消息，這有助於降低我們上個季度報告的不確定性水平。

First, there were a number of announcements around the continued investment in AI infrastructure that supports demand in both leading-edge logic and advanced DRAM. Second, the positive momentum around AI seems to extend to more customers in both Logic and DRAM. Third, we see continued momentum around customers adopting more EUV layers in both Logic and DRAM, migrating multi-patterning Deep UV single exposure EUV and continuing to support litho intensity.

首先，有一系列公告稱將繼續投資於支援尖端邏輯和先進 DRAM 需求的人工智慧基礎設施。其次，人工智慧的積極勢頭似乎延伸到了邏輯和 DRAM 領域的更多客戶。第三，我們看到客戶在邏輯和 DRAM 中採用更多 EUV 層、遷移多重圖案化深紫外線單次曝光 EUV 並繼續支援光刻強度的勢頭持續增強。

On the other hand, we expect to see China customer demand and, therefore, our China total net sale in 2026 to decline significantly compared to our very strong business there in 2024 and 2025. We believe that the impact of these dynamics will only partially affect 2026. However, overall, we do not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025. In this environment, we also expect the 2026 EUV business to be up, driven by the dynamic in advanced DRAM and leading edge logic, and the Deep UV business to be down compared to 2025, driven by the dynamics with our Chinese customer. We will provide more details on our 2026 outlook in January.

另一方面，我們預計中國客戶需求以及 2026 年我們在中國的淨銷售額將比 2024 年和 2025 年在中國的強勁業務大幅下降。我們認為，這些動態的影響只會對 2026 年產生部分影響。不過，整體而言，我們預期 2026 年的總淨銷售額不會低於 2025 年。在這種環境下，我們也預計，受先進 DRAM 和前沿邏輯的動態推動，2026 年 EUV 業務將會上升，而受中國客戶動態的推動，Deep UV 業務與 2025 年相比將會下降。我們將在一月份提供有關 2026 年展望的更多詳細資訊。

Turning to technology. There has been a lot of good progress this quarter with latest achievement on EUV presented at industry conferences. The release of new 3D packaging lithography system and the announcement of our strategic engagement with Mistral AI. For EUV, we presented a number of papers at recent SPIE and semicon events that highlighted the progress we have made in helping drive down cost of technology on our customers' most advanced processes.

轉向技術。本季取得了許多良好進展，在產業會議上展示了 EUV 的最新成果。新型 3D 封裝微影系統的發布以及與 Mistral AI 策略合作的宣布。對於 EUV，我們在最近的 SPIE 和半導體活動中發表了多篇論文，重點介紹了我們在幫助降低客戶最先進製程的技術成本方面所取得的進展。

With regards to the maturity of High NA, we share data showing that we have now run cumulatively over 300,000 wafers on the system at our customer. Also, our customers have shared very positive data, showing that the maturation level of the platform is well ahead of where low NA EUV was at the same stage in its introduction.

關於高NA的成熟度，我們分享的數據顯示，我們現在已經在客戶的系統上累積運行了超過300,000個晶圓。此外，我們的客戶分享了非常積極的數據，顯示該平台的成熟度遠遠領先於低NA EUV在推出時的相同階段。

Further, SK hynix announced this quarter that they started to take delivery of their first High NA system, the EXE:5200, positioning High NA as a critical enabler for future advanced DRAM devices. We are also happy to report that this quarter, we shipped ASML's first 3D integration product, the XT:260. The XT:260 is a high line scanner designed for applications that include advanced packaging and offer up to 4x the productivity compared to existing solutions.

此外，SK 海力士本季宣布，他們開始交付其首款 High NA 系統 EXE:5200，將 High NA 定位為未來先進 DRAM 設備的關鍵推動因素。我們也很高興地報告，本季我們推出了 ASML 的首款 3D 整合產品 XT:260。XT:260 是一款高線掃描儀，專為包括先進包裝在內的應用而設計，與現有解決方案相比，其生產效率可提高 4 倍。

3D integration is of increasing importance to the road maps of our customers and the semiconductor industry. And our customers have been sharing with us the need to innovate in order to meet their future requirements. The discussion with our customers on those requirements point to a good opportunity to transfer some of our holistic lithography technology to free the integration to meet their future needs.

3D 整合對於我們的客戶和半導體產業的發展路線圖來說越來越重要。我們的客戶一直與我們分享創新的必要性，以滿足他們未來的需求。我們與客戶就這些要求進行的討論為我們提供了一個很好的機會，可以轉移我們的部分整體光刻技術，以實現自由集成，從而滿足他們未來的需求。

The XT:260 is the first example of several opportunities we are evaluating. With the XT:260, we are able, as said, to multiply the existing productivity by up to a factor of 4 using a unique optical design. As mentioned, we shipped our first system this quarter and expect to ship this tool to quite a few more customers in the coming quarters, reflecting the strong interest in this technology solution.

XT:260 是我們正在評估的幾個機會中的第一個例子。如所說，透過 XT:260，我們能夠利用獨特的光學設計將現有生產力提高 4 倍。如上所述，我們本季推出了第一套系統，並預計在未來幾季向更多客戶推出該工具，這反映出人們對該技術解決方案的濃厚興趣。

With that, I ask Roger to provide some insight into our recent engagement with Mistral AI. Roger?

因此，我請羅傑就我們最近與 Mistral AI 的合作提供一些見解。羅傑？

Thanks, Christophe. In September, we announced that we closed a strategic partnership with Mistral AI, a pioneering company and generative artificial intelligence with a strong business-to-business focus, and widely recognized for its leadership in larger language models that assist in areas such as software coding development.

謝謝，克里斯托夫。9 月，我們宣布與 Mistral AI 建立策略合作夥伴關係，Mistral AI 是一家具有先驅地位的生成人工智慧公司，專注於 B2B 業務，並因其在協助軟體編碼開發等領域的大型語言模型方面的領導地位而獲得廣泛認可。

ASML is normally associated with hardware, software plays an increasing role in driving the precision and speed of our tools. Our partnership with Mistral AI allows us to embed AI across our entire holistic portfolio in order to increase the performance and productivity of our systems and the yield of our customers' processes.

ASML 通常與硬體相關，軟體在推動我們工具的精確度和速度方面發揮著越來越重要的作用。我們與 Mistral AI 的合作使我們能夠將 AI 嵌入到我們的整個整體產品組合中，以提高我們系統的效能和生產力以及客戶流程的產量。

Also, we believe this collaboration will allow for faster innovation, resulting in improved time-to-market and lower development costs when delivering state-of-the-art solutions to our customers. In addition to the collaboration agreement, ASML has invested EUR1.3 billion in Mistral AI's Series C funding round as a lead investor, resulting in ASML holding around an 11% share in Mistral AI and having a ceded their strategic committee. It allows us to become even more closely connected to the AI ecosystem.

此外，我們相信，此次合作將加快創新速度，從而縮短產品上市時間並降低開發成本，同時為我們的客戶提供最先進的解決方案。除了合作協議之外，ASML 還作為領投方在 Mistral AI 的 C 輪融資中投資了 13 億歐元，這使得 ASML 持有 Mistral AI 約 11% 的股份，並放棄了其戰略委員會。它使我們與人工智慧生態系統的聯繫更加緊密。

Thank you, Roger. Looking longer term, as we shared in our Capital Market Day, we start to see that the end market dynamics is leading to a product mix shift towards more advanced Logic and DRAM. Those applications require a more intensive use of advanced lithography system. We expect that to continue. The combination of our strong product road map on Low NA and the introduction of High NA supports further cost of technology reduction and the conversion of more multi-patterning layers to a single EUV exposure, especially on DRAM advanced nodes.

謝謝你，羅傑。從長遠來看，正如我們在資本市場日所分享的，我們開始看到終端市場動態正在導致產品組合轉向更先進的邏輯和 DRAM 。這些應用需要更密集地使用先進的光刻系統。我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。我們強大的低 NA 產品路線圖與高 NA 的引入相結合，支援進一步降低技術成本，並將更多多圖案層轉換為單一 EUV 曝光，尤其是在 DRAM 高階節點上。

In line with our 2024 Capital Market Day, we expect a 2030 revenue opportunity between EUR44 billion and EUR60 billion with gross margin expected between 56% and 60%.

根據我們 2024 年資本市場日的預測，我們預計 2030 年的收入機會在 440 億歐元至 600 億歐元之間，毛利率預計在 56% 至 60% 之間。

With that, Roger and I will be happy to take your questions.

羅傑和我很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Roger. Thank you, Christophe. Now the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

謝謝你，羅傑。謝謝你，克里斯托夫。現在，操作員將暫時指導您在問答環節的協議。（操作員指示）現在操作員，請問您最後的指示，然後問第一個問題好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) François Bouvignies, UBS.

（操作員指示）瑞銀的 François Bouvignies。

My first question on this, what you said, Christophe, that you saw positive news in the last months that helped you reduce uncertainty. And I was wondering, can you elaborate on this? Because obviously, you get this EUR5 billion orders, which is helping, but I guess just 1 quarter of orders doesn't give you the full flexibility on '26 completely. So do you have more visibility in terms of the full capacity they need for '26 now that gives you like more numbers around all of that or the layers. So just trying to understand what changed versus last month or you just rely on positive news out there and you try to extrapolate? Just trying to understand these dynamics.

關於這個問題，我的第一個問題是，克里斯托夫，您說過去幾個月您看到了積極的消息，幫助您減少了不確定性。我想知道，您能詳細說明一下嗎？因為顯然，你獲得了這 50 億歐元的訂單，這很有幫助，但我猜僅僅四分之一的訂單並不能讓你在 26 年完全擁有完全的靈活性。那麼，您是否對 26 年所需的全部容量有了更清晰的了解，從而為您提供有關所有這些或各個層面的更多數字。那麼，只是想了解與上個月相比發生了什麼變化，還是只是依靠外面的積極消息並嘗試推斷？只是想了解這些動態。

Yes. Francois, I think, first, I referred to a lot of positive news on AI infrastructure. And I think you all know that usually, this doesn't translate immediately into order for us. So this takes quite some time. But if you look at the sum of the announcement, I would say this creates a pretty positive backlog of opportunity for AI moving forward.

是的。弗朗索瓦，我想，首先，我提到了很多關於人工智慧基礎設施的正面消息。我想大家都知道，通常情況下，這並不會立即為我們帶來秩序。所以需要相當長的時間。但如果你看一下公告的整體情況，我會說這為人工智慧的發展創造了相當積極的機會。

The second one is also quite important. So I think we mentioned the fact that we see now that more customers will benefit from the AI opportunity. I think it's important for many reasons. The first one being that in order to respond to this huge demand of good -- this huge amount of good news on AI infrastructure, you need to make sure that the market capacity would be high enough. And I think that seeing more customer entering Logic opportunity or DRAM opportunity is a pretty good news for the long term.

第二個也相當重要。所以我認為我們提到過這樣一個事實，我們現在看到更多的客戶將從人工智慧機會中受益。我認為它很重要，原因有很多。首先，為了滿足對人工智慧基礎設施的巨大需求，你需要確保市場容量足夠大。我認為，看到更多客戶進入邏輯機會或 DRAM 機會對於長期來說是一個好消息。

And to know exactly how this will affect the next few years is still difficult to say. I think, as I said before, only part of that will be effective next year. And for the rest, I think it's far too early to say on our side.

但要確切知道這將如何影響未來幾年仍然很難說。我認為，正如我之前所說，明年只有部分措施會有效。至於其餘問題，我認為我們現在下結論還為時過早。

Makes sense. And the follow-up is on China. I mean that has been a key driver of growth in the last few years, and you mentioned it will go down significantly. So it's again a bit on the visibility side here. I guess you see the strong H2.

有道理。後續是有關中國的問題。我的意思是，這是過去幾年成長的主要驅動力，而您提到它將大幅下降。因此，這又有點關於可見性方面的問題。我猜你看到了強大的 H2。

I would imagine 3 to 6 months lead times because it's Deep UV. So I would expect you not to see much beyond Q1 '26. So is it some conservatism because you see the strong base and maybe a soft Q1 '26 or you really do you have the full picture already on '26 hot it's looking?

我預計交貨時間為 3 到 6 個月，因為它是深紫外線。因此，我預計 2026 年第一季之後的情況不會有太大變化。那麼，這是不是有些保守，因為您看到了強勁的基礎和可能疲軟的 2026 年第一季度，或者您真的已經對 2026 年的熱門情況有了全面的了解？

Well, I think that we have about the same clarity that we had last year about this time. And I think around that same time, we still try to provide you a bit of our view of the market. I think on China, we have been very consistent that we saw that the level of business in the last two, three years was very high and in Norway, normal. So I think we have been experiencing a very high cycle in China, especially through the last couple of years. And again, our expectation and the visibility we have right now is that next year, we go back to more reasonable business.

嗯，我認為我們的清晰度與去年此時差不多。我認為大約在同一時間，我們仍會嘗試向您提供一些我們對市場的看法。我認為，就中國而言，我們一直非常一致地看到，過去兩三年的業務水平非常高，而在挪威，業務水平正常。所以我認為我們在中國經歷了一個非常高的周期，特別是在過去幾年。再說一次，我們現在的預期和預見是，明年我們的業務將恢復到更合理的水平。

Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

Krish Sankar，TD Cowen。

I have two of them, Roger, you kind of mentioned the recent AI investment strength. Some of it will come in 2026. I'm kind of curious, given your long lead times, how to think about linearity of your revenues or orders in 2026? And any early thoughts on what it implies for 2027?

我有兩個問題，羅傑，你提到了最近的人工智慧投資實力。其中一些將在 2026 年實現。我有點好奇，考慮到您的較長的交貨時間，如何考慮 2026 年的收入或訂單的線性？您對於它對 2027 年意味著什麼有什麼初步想法嗎？

Yes. Krish, interesting question. I think we're -- we set what we said on '26. I think it's way too early to make any comments on '27. I think you will see that orders came in strongly in the last quarter.

是的。Krish，有趣的問題。我認為我們已經在 26 日實現了我們所說的目標。我認為現在對 27 做出任何評論還為時過早。我想你會看到上個季度的訂單量非常強勁。

Actually, the quarter before that also came in strongly. So I think linearity of orders is an anomaly. I think we said orders always come in lumpy. I think we've had a healthy run in the past two quarters, but I don't think you can talk about linearity.

事實上，之前一個季度的表現也十分強勁。所以我認為訂單的線性是一種異常現象。我想我們說過訂單總是成批地到來。我認為我們在過去兩個季度中表現良好，但我認為不能談論線性。

So way too early to talk about what this means for '27. I think going back to Christophe's earlier answer, I think the news flow that you got in the past couple of months, I think, is a positive news flow and there's a positive news flow, particularly in the medium term, but we now translate that into concrete expectations of '27 is really quite a bit too early.

現在談論這對 27 年意味著什麼還為時過早。我認為回到克里斯托夫之前的回答，我認為過去幾個月你得到的消息是積極的消息，特別是在中期內，但我們現在將其轉化為對 27 年的具體預期確實為時過早。

Fair enough. Fair enough. And then a follow-up for Christophe. Clearly, you're seeing strength in DRAM. I'm kind of looking longer term, there is a view that when you go into 4 of square from 6 of square for DRAM architecture that's actually negative for EUV.

很公平。很公平。然後是克里斯托夫的後續行動。顯然，你看到了 DRAM 的優勢。我看得比較長遠，有一種觀點認為，當 DRAM 架構從 6 平方變成 4 平方時，這實際上對 EUV 是不利的。

The EUV layer count comes down. Can you just help us understand that, Christophe?

EUV 層數減少。克里斯托夫，您能幫助我們理解這一點嗎？

Yes, it's a good question. It's a question we get a lot. The short answer is no. If we look at the number of EUV layer going from six of square to 4 of square, we do not expect the number of layers to drop. In fact, as for square road map continues after the transition, we, in fact, expect the number of EUV layers to continue to grow.

是的，這是個好問題。這是我們經常遇到的問題。簡短的回答是「不」。如果我們看一下 EUV 層的數量，從 6 個平方增加到 4 個平方，我們預期層數不會下降。事實上，隨著方形路線圖在過渡之後繼續發展，我們實際上預計 EUV 層的數量將繼續增長。

And I make that statement after many discussions with our customer.

我在與客戶進行多次討論後做出了這項聲明。

On top of that, what I'd like to add is 4 of Square as a bit of a more complex structure. So it's, in fact, adding overall more litho mask, more advanced litho mask. So there is a benefit also to some extent, to advance Deep UV. So in any case, you still doubt about it 4 of Square is in no way a bad news for ASML. We are looking forward to it.

除此之外，我還想增加 4 個 Square，使其結構更加複雜。因此，實際上，它總體上增加了更多的光刻掩模，更先進的光刻掩模。因此，從某種程度上來說，推進深紫外線也有好處。所以無論如何，你仍然對此表示懷疑，Square 4 對 ASML 來說絕對不是一個壞消息。我們對此充滿期待。

Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬‧夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

Yes. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about just the updated commentary for '26. Is that more your more positive view, a bit more DRAM planted or equally balanced with Logic? And then same for more customers benefiting from AI infrastructure build-out. Is that more of a DRAM comment?

是的。我想知道您是否可以再多談談 26 年的最新評論。這是您更正面的看法嗎，植入更多的 DRAM 還是與 Logic 保持平衡？同樣，更多的客戶也將從人工智慧基礎設施建設中受益。這更像是一則 DRAM 評論嗎？

Joe, sorry. Joe, I think it's related to both markets actually. So last quarter, we talked about uncertainties. I think the uncertainties and Christophe went on to the positive flow that has happened thereafter. One element of the uncertainties that we called out at that point in time was also the uncertainty around tariffs.

喬，對不起。喬，我認為這實際上與兩個市場都有關。上個季度，我們討論了不確定性。我認為不確定性和克里斯托夫繼續了此後的積極進程。我們當時指出的不確定因素之一也是關稅的不確定性。

That was out there. I think there is more clarity on that front right now. But that unclarity also prevented customers from being very concrete as to what exactly we're going to do and whether we're going to build their capacity. I think that has decreased. And I think that has given rise to the commentary that we now made on '26.

那是在那裡。我認為現在這方面的情況更加明朗了。但這種不明確性也使客戶無法明確我們到底要做什麼以及我們是否要增強他們的能力。我認為這個數字已經減少了。我認為這導致了我們現在對 26 事件的評論。

But I would say, in general, when we talk about the positive news flow on the leading edge, leading to our expectation that EUV is going up next year. That is related both to the DRAM and to advance topic.

但我想說，總的來說，當我們談論前沿的積極新聞流時，我們預計 EUV 明年將會上升。這與 DRAM 和高級主題都相關。

And as a follow-up, I was wondering if you could maybe just walk through some of the puts and takes on your gross margin guide. I think what you're guiding for, for the December quarter is a bit better than what you were implying quarter goes. Is that -- is that something related to tariffs or mix or something else?

作為後續問題，我想知道您是否可以簡單介紹一下毛利率指南中的一些內容。我認為，您對 12 月季度的預期比您暗示的季度情況要好一些。這是不是與關稅或混合或其他東西有關？

No, it's -- obviously, volume is quite high, right? So that is a positive moving from Q3 to Q4. Mix has many elements to it. It's -- of course, we -- well, we expect two EXEs in this quarter, in Q4. So that is a negative, but on the other hand, we will also have a good Low NA in there.

不，顯然音量很高，對吧？因此，從第三季度到第四季度，這是一個積極的轉變。混合包含多種元素。當然，我們預計本季度，也就是第四季度將有兩家 EXE 公司。所以這是一個負面因素，但另一方面，我們也會有一個好的低 NA。

We're a bit positive on upgrade business, as you could see, right, because that business a little bit up. And if you don't take it all in all, we see a slight improvement at the midpoint in comparison to what we had last quarter. So those are the dynamics, I would say, fairly small movements, but all in all, leading at the midpoint to a slightly better gross margin than maybe we thought we were going to be for with it.

如您所見，我們對升級業務有點樂觀，因為該業務有點上升。如果你不把所有因素都考慮進去，我們會看到與上一季相比，中期情況略有改善。所以我想說，這些都是動態，相當小的變動，但總的來說，在中點導致毛利率略高於我們想像的水平。

Didier Scemama, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Didier Scemama。

Yes, thank you for taking my question and good afternoon. My first question is about things that you talked about a little bit before. I just wanted to press you a little bit more. So we've all in the press release of SK hynix and Samsung following the visit of Sam Altman to Korea talking about a letter of intent of 900,000 with a total month of HBM capacity, which is probably more than double the current HBM capacity. So my question is this, my estimate would be that there are about 30 UV tools in the DRAM today, not all of them for HBM, but the majority presumably that would imply if we believe those numbers and many people think those numbers are absolutely grow task, but let's do it for the sake of the argument. You would need something like 65 EUV tools just for HBM and then comes on top whatever Samsung, Foundry, Intel and TSMC would need.

是的，感謝您回答我的問題，下午好。我的第一個問題是關於您之前談到的事情。我只是想再給你多一點壓力。因此，我們都在 SK 海力士和三星的新聞稿中看到，在 Sam Altman 訪問韓國之後，雙方談到了每月總產能為 90 萬片 HBM 的意向書，這可能是目前 HBM 產能的兩倍多。所以我的問題是這樣的，我估計目前 DRAM 中大約有 30 種 UV 工具，並非所有工具都適用於 HBM，但大多數大概意味著如果我們相信這些數字，而且許多人認為這些數字絕對是增長任務，但為了論證的目的，讓我們這樣做。光是 HBM 就需要 65 個 EUV 工具，然後還要滿足三星、Foundry、英特爾和台積電的需求。

So I guess the question is, A, what do you think of those numbers? And then B, do you have enough capacity for EUV Low NA, let's say, by 2030 to get to satisfy that potential demand?

所以我想問題是，A，你對這些數字有什麼看法？然後 B，到 2030 年，您是否有足夠的 EUV Low NA 產能來滿足潛在需求？

Well, I think we want to get into the calculation because I think we said it already a couple of times. I think we are a bit careful with how the big announcement can translate into real capacity need on the ground. I think the one thing I'd still like to stress one most time is we see the the broadening of the customer base, I think a very important news in that matter because whatever you do is the first set of news, I think we can all agree that we need to make sure that the market will not be supply limited. And this has always been a risk with a limited amount of customers supplying AI chips, both in Logic and DRAM. So I think the broadening of the installed base is very good news there.

好吧，我想我們要進行計算，因為我認為我們已經說過幾次了。我認為，對於如何將重大聲明轉化為實際的容量需求，我們會持謹慎態度。我認為我最想強調的一件事是，我們看到客戶群的擴大，我認為這是其中非常重要的一個訊息，因為無論你做什麼都是第一組訊息，我想我們都同意我們需要確保市場不會受到供應限制。由於供應 AI 晶片（包括邏輯晶片和 DRAM 晶片）的客戶數量有限，這始終是一個風險。因此我認為擴大安裝基礎是一個非常好的消息。

And on the last question, we have said for a few quarters that we have been preparing for growth. So we were following those dynamics. And I think we know now that EUV most probably will be stronger next year. So we've been preparing for that. We have, as you know, also worked on longer-term capacity.

關於最後一個問題，我們已經說過幾個季度了，我們一直在為成長做準備。所以我們一直在關注這些動態。我認為我們現在知道 EUV 明年很可能會更加強大。所以我們一直在為此做準備。如您所知，我們也致力於長期產能。

So we continue to track basically the market carefully having in mind that we want to be able to follow the demand. So I would say we don't have any concern there at this point of time.

因此，我們將繼續密切追蹤市場，同時牢記我們希望能夠滿足需求。所以我想說我們目前對此沒有任何擔憂。

Okay. Great. My follow-up for Roger, perhaps, just wanted to understand what I'm missing. So if we look -- if we assume like let's say you booked EUR5 billion of orders in Q4, give or take, that would imply if you exit calendar year '25 with the backlog just about EUR30 billion.

好的。偉大的。我對羅傑的後續關注，也許只是想了解我所缺少的東西。因此，如果我們看一下 - 如果我們假設您在第四季度預訂了價值 50 億歐元的訂單，那就意味著如果您在 25 日曆年結束時積壓訂單價值約為 300 億歐元。

Even if you strip out the High NA tools in their expectations call it EUR1.5 billion, EUR2 billion. That makes me comfortably above, let's say, modest growth for next year. So is there a large portion of the current backlog, which has got maturity beyond '26? Is that the reason why you're still hesitant calling '26, let's say, strong growth year or high single-digit growth year or the double-digit growth year?

即使你去掉預期中的高 NA 工具，它也是 15 億歐元、20 億歐元。這讓我對明年的適度成長感到安心。那麼，目前積壓的大部分訂單是否已經到了 26 年以後才到期？這就是您仍然猶豫不決將 26 年稱為強勁增長年、高個位數增長年還是兩位數增長年的原因嗎？

Well, I mean, of course, that's the big question, right? The big question is what is in the backlog that pertains to beyond to '26. And that is a reasonable number. So as a result of that, your math doesn't work exactly right for 2026 because there is a pretty healthy number in there for beyond '26. And we also know that there's always a question about a bit of pull in here a bit of push out there, and that makes it extremely hard to make at this stage, any concrete projections on '26.

嗯，我的意思是，當然，這是一個大問題，對吧？最大的問題是，26 年以後積壓的事務有哪些。這是一個合理的數字。因此，你的計算對於 2026 年來說並不完全正確，因為 26 年以後有一個相當健康的數字。我們也知道，總是存在一個問題，那就是這裡有一點拉動，那裡有一點推動，這使得在現階段對 26 年做出任何具體的預測變得極其困難。

But to your point, there is already a healthy order intake in the backlog that is beyond '26 also as it relates to High NA. I think the High NA contingent in there is actually pretty strong.

但就你的觀點而言，積壓訂單中已經存在健康的訂單量，並且超出了 26 年，這也與高 NA 有關。我認為那裡的高級 NA 隊伍實際上相當強大。

Would you say how many you expect to recognize next year?

您能說一下明年預計會表彰多少人嗎？

High NA? No. That's a January topic, Didier.

高 NA？不。這是一月份的話題，迪迪埃。

I tried.

我試過。

You did.

你做到了。

Andrew Gardiner, Citi.

花旗銀行的安德魯·加德納。

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I might try Didier's question in a slightly different angle and see if I have any luck. You've highlighted the news flow, Christophe, we can all see it. It feels like you wake up every day to another massive announcement from somewhere within the AI food chain.

午安.感謝您回答這個問題。我可能會從稍微不同的角度嘗試回答 Didier 的問題，看看是否有運氣。克里斯托夫，你已經強調了新聞流，我們都可以看到它。感覺就像每天醒來都會聽到來自人工智慧食物鏈某個地方的另一個重大公告。

And you sort of -- you spent a lot of time talking about how that could create a theoretical backlog for you, not yet orders. But I'm just wondering, you are a critical supplier into this market, you have the potential to be a backlog -- to be a bottleneck rather for the market.

而且你花了很多時間討論這會為你帶來理論上的積壓，而不是訂單。但我只是想知道，作為這個市場的重要供應商，您是否有可能成為積壓產品——或者成為市場的瓶頸。

Now of course, you don't want that to be the case, you're preparing for growth, et cetera. But do you feel like there's sufficient understanding through the chain, whether it's of where you said or perhaps your customers, how can you, as a critical supplier, make sure that the broader market isn't supply limited come 2027, 2028 given the kind of announcements that we're seeing on a new weekly basis?

當然，你現在不希望出現這種情況，你正在為成長做準備，等等。但是，您是否覺得整個供應鏈都有足夠的理解，無論是您所說的地方還是您的客戶，鑑於我們每週都會看到的公告，作為關鍵供應商，您如何確保到 2027 年、2028 年更廣泛的市場不會出現供應受限的情況？

Well, so first, I think we wish we had a formula to translate all the announcement on what it means exactly for us in the next few years. But I think no one has that. So I think that the experience also of 2022 as mostly poses a lesson to be ready and to have maybe more flexibility because we know the market can swing.

嗯，首先，我想我們希望有一個公式來解釋所有的公告，並解釋它對我們未來幾年到底意味著什麼。但我認為沒有人擁有這個能力。因此，我認為 2022 年的經驗也主要給我們一個教訓，那就是要做好準備，並擁有更大的靈活性，因為我們知道市場可能會波動。

So we've done a lot of work on that in the last few years. We have prepared a building, as we discussed before, which are usually the longer lead time item. And for the rest, when it comes to define exactly, I mean, the tool we want to produce, I think the lead time is a lot shorter, so we have more flexibility.

因此，過去幾年我們在這方面做了很多工作。正如我們之前討論過的，我們已經準備好了一棟建築，這通常是交付週期較長的項目。至於其餘部分，當需要準確定義我們想要生產的工具時，我認為交貨時間會短得多，因此我們有更大的靈活性。

But I would say we have structurally maybe improve ourselves so that because we cannot answer those questions after the announcement, we at least have the flexibility. The other thing I'd like to add is, of course, well, our customers, at the end of the day, tell us what they need. And I think that's a constant dialogue, dialogue, we try to always reflect with you on a quarterly basis. And I think we continue to do that.

但我想說，我們在結構上可能已經改進了自己，這樣，由於我們無法在宣布之後回答這些問題，我們至少具有靈活性。我想補充的另一件事當然是，我們的客戶最終會告訴我們他們需要什麼。我認為這是一個持續的對話，對話，我們會嘗試每季與您進行反思。我認為我們會繼續這樣做。

So we are prepared. I think we stressed a few times, we were preparing for growth and this was also in light of some of this activity we have seen. And come January, we would be mostly knowing even more about what's happened then and then we'll continue to monitor the market. But I think we are I would say, a lot more prepared than we were a few years ago.

所以我們已經做好準備了。我想我們已經強調過幾次了，我們正在為成長做準備，這也是考慮到我們所看到的一些活動。到了一月份，我們將更了解當時發生的事情，然後我們將繼續監測市場。但我認為，我們比幾年前準備得更充分了。

And I think Christophe said it exactly right. We are very well prepared, particularly by having invested in the long lead time items, that still, by the way, means that when it comes to shorter lead time items, of course, that you need to have a dialogue with your customer that gives you a timely heads up, right? So because, of course, we need to kick our supply chain into gear. We need to hire the people, et cetera, et cetera. So we have a lot more flexibility than we used to have, but it is also critical for our customers to give us a timely heads up such that we can make sure that within the long-term infrastructure that we have, we're also able to get to higher output levels and get supply chain improve in place.

我認為克里斯托夫說得非常正確。我們已經做好了充分的準備，特別是對長交貨期產品進行了投資，順便說一句，這意味著當涉及到較短交貨期產品時，當然，您需要與客戶進行對話，以便及時通知您，對嗎？當然，我們需要啟動我們的供應鏈。我們需要雇用人員等等。因此，我們比以前擁有了更大的靈活性，但對於我們的客戶來說，及時通知我們也至關重要，這樣我們才能確保在我們擁有的長期基礎設施內，我們也能夠達到更高的產出水平並改善供應鏈。

Okay. And I suppose without naming names, I mean do you feel like your customers are giving you that heads up, right? Is there a sufficient acknowledgment through the chain?

好的。我想，我不想指名道姓，我的意思是，您是否覺得您的客戶正在向您發出這樣的警告，對嗎？整個鏈條是否有足夠的確認？

I think they do their very best. I will say it this way because they have the same challenge as we do. So I think they do their very best, and I think we're very happy with the transparency and the honesty around those discussion because over time, that's very helpful, also helpful in trying to really avoid the bigger surprise. So I feel that this discussion really has improved in the last few years. And I think this is very helpful for them, for us, but also for their customer.

我認為他們已經盡力了。我之所以這樣說，是因為他們和我們面臨同樣的挑戰。所以我認為他們已經盡了最大努力，而且我認為我們對討論的透明度和誠實度感到非常滿意，因為隨著時間的推移，這非常有幫助，也有助於真正避免更大的意外。所以我覺得這個討論在過去幾年確實有所改善。我認為這對他們、對我們、對他們的客戶都非常有幫助。

Tammy Qiu, Berenberg.

塔米邱，貝倫貝格。

Hi, thank you for taking my question. So first one is the High NA kind of order pattern and demand ramp-up curve. So at the moment, I mean, there hasn't been High NA orders for about two-ish, two plus quarters now. So I understand that you're working on our backlog. But does that mean if order only coming in from end of next year, that you may actually have a, let's say, somewhere like 2027 or 2028, a few quarters of a year of 0 High NA revenue. So the ramp-up curve of revenue of High NA kind to be quite lumpy. Is that correct?

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。第一個是高 NA 類型的訂單模式和需求成長曲線。所以目前，我的意思是，大約兩個季度或兩個多季度以來，還沒有出現高 NA 訂單。所以我知道你正在處理我們的積壓工作。但這是否意味著，如果訂單要到明年年底才會到來，那麼在 2027 年或 2028 年這樣的某個時候，一年中有幾個季度的高 NA 收入為 0。因此，高 NA 類型的收入成長曲線相當不平穩。對嗎？

Well, I think so you -- first, you summarized, Tammy, the pretty well. So we are indeed working on High NA out of the pretty healthy backlog we have, I think, explained in the past that this backlog allow our customer to be covered for, of course, R&D pretty much done with most of those shipments, but also with the system they want to use for qualification and insertion.

嗯，我認為是這樣——首先，塔米，你總結得非常好。因此，我們確實正在從相當健康的積壓訂單中努力實現高 NA，我想，我們過去曾解釋過，這些積壓訂單可以讓我們的客戶得到保障，當然，研發工作幾乎已經通過大多數發貨完成，而且他們還希望使用系統進行資格認證和插入。

And for the rest, the next wave of order, we expect to happen basically when the data are coming out of the qualification can confirm basically that the maturity of the tool is there. I think when it comes to performance, mostly we have passed that milestone. And yes, I think as we discussed last quarter, we expect that to happen most probably towards the second half of next year and after that.

至於其餘部分，下一波訂單，我們預計基本上會在數據從資格審查中出來時發生，基本上可以確認該工具已經成熟。我認為就性能而言，我們基本上已經超越了那個里程碑。是的，我認為正如我們上個季度討論的那樣，我們預計這很可能會在明年下半年及之後發生。

Now this being said, we do more than just waiting for orders with our customers. So it's not like nothing is going to happen also in the next 18 months in terms of assessing the progress and therefore, also assessing the likelihood of the type of insertion we're going to look at. So as we did, we just talked about the way we were preparing for growth on EUV in the last few months, and we did that without having necessarily the full clarity of the demand, we would be able to do that through the discussion with our customer. But in terms of orders, so you look, yes, towards end of next year, and in terms of shipments, you look at '28 and beyond.

話雖如此，我們所做的不僅僅是等待客戶訂單。因此，在評估進展方面以及評估我們將要研究的插入類型的可能性方面，未來 18 個月內也不會不發生任何事情。因此，正如我們所做的那樣，我們只是談論了過去幾個月我們為 EUV 成長所做的準備方式，我們這樣做並不一定完全清楚需求，我們可以透過與客戶的討論來做到這一點。但就訂單而言，是的，你要看明年年底，就出貨量而言，你要看 28 年及以後。

Okay. That's very clear. And the second question is on China. So you mentioned that China revenue would be down significantly year-on-year in 2026, and also that's because of demand. I'm wondering that because of the customers, I'm not sure about the demand, so they wouldn't want to commit.

好的。這很清楚。第二個問題是關於中國的。所以您提到 2026 年中國的營收將年比大幅下降，這也是因為需求的原因。我想知道是不是因為客​​戶的需求我不確定，所以他們不願意承諾。

Therefore, you're being conservative or the customer told you for some reason their end market demand has been weak. So therefore, they are buying less. We don't actually currently seeing Chinese market further weaken from where we are today. So I wonder what's the reason for that comment to be weaker significantly year on year?

因此，您是保守的，或者客戶告訴您由於某種原因他們的終端市場需求一直很弱。因此，他們購買的量就減少了。實際上，我們目前並沒有看到中國市場比現在進一步走弱。所以我想知道是什麼原因導致該評論逐年明顯減弱？

I think the comment that Christophe made and I think you also said it goes back to also the comment that we made maybe a year ago, right? So for quite a while, we have been eating into our backlog. That's really what happened. So for quite a while, the China sales were very high because we've been eating into a substantial backlog because of underserving the Chinese market. So that was the reason why, in fact, a year ago, we said we expected China sales to be more commensurate with the China percentage in the backlog, which at that stage was around 20% of the backlog.

我認為克里斯托夫所作的評論以及您所說的評論可以追溯到我們大約一年前所作的評論，對嗎？因此，很長一段時間以來，我們一直在處理積壓的工作。事實確實如此。因此，在相當長的一段時間內，中國的銷售額非常高，因為我們對中國市場的服務不足，導致了大量積壓訂單。這就是為什麼事實上在一年前我們就表示，我們預計中國的銷售額將與積壓訂單中的中國百分比更加相稱，當時中國佔積壓訂單的 20% 左右。

So that's what we said. So actually, as Christophe said, we were actually quite surprised that the China sales this year are as strong as they are. But that's still -- but that's still the underlying assumption and our underlying perspective on the Chinese market is still the way it was a year ago. And that has to do with the fact that the Chinese market is a very specific one, right?

這就是我們所說的。因此，正如克里斯托夫所說，我們對今年中國市場的銷售如此強勁感到非常驚訝。但這仍然是基本的假設，我們對中國市場的基本看法仍然與一年前一樣。這與中國市場非常特殊有關，對嗎？

It's focused on mainstream logic as we call it. And simply given the dynamics of that market, it is our assessment that the sales level that we currently see this year is very high in comparison to what we would think is a normalized level for that -- for the mainstream market. So that's the reason why we've indicated this assumption of a significant decline. So that's based on our understanding of the market. It's based on the dialogues that we have with our customers.

它專注於我們所說的主流邏輯。僅從該市場的動態來看，我們評估今年的銷售水平與我們認為的主流市場的正常水平相比非常高。這就是我們提出大幅下降假設的原因。這是基於我們對市場的了解。它基於我們與客戶的對話。

Could that change? Absolutely. I think we've seen that this year that if could change the comparison to our perspective. But if you ask us for an honest assessment at this stage, how we think it's going to be in '26, it is as we communicate it.

這種情況會改變嗎？絕對地。我認為我們今年已經看到，如果能從我們的角度改變比較的話。但如果您要求我們在此階段做出誠實的評估，即我們認為 26 年的情況會如何，我們會按照所傳達的方式進行。

Stephane Houri, ODDO BHF.

Stephane Houri，ODDO BHF。

Yes. Actually, I've got two questions. The first one is on the advanced packaging product that you're highlighting in your presentation, the XT:260, can you maybe say a little bit more about what it's doing, the price of the machine type of clients who you're competing with and the market outlook, if you have a few information, and I have another one.

是的。實際上，我有兩個問題。第一個問題是您在演示中重點介紹的先進封裝產品 XT:260，您能否再多說一下它的功能、機器類型、您與之競爭的客戶的價格以及市場前景，如果您有一些信息的話，我還有一個。

Yes. So let me give you a bit of context. So I think we mentioned that product in our press release also in the call, not necessarily because of the high price, high value of the product, but because this is the first product ASML is providing to its customer to support 3D integration. And I think that's mostly where the important news is.

是的。那麼讓我來幫你介紹一下背景。所以我認為我們在新聞稿中也提到了該產品，不一定是因為該產品價格高、價值高，而是因為這是 ASML 向其客戶提供的第一款支援 3D 整合的產品。我認為那裡大多都是重要的新聞。

I think we all know that when it comes to Moore's law, our customers are asking us to drive transistor density, still doubling it basically a factor of two, every two years. I think that we also know that over time, litho scaling has slowed down, and that creates a need basically for more either stacking or packaging of transistor.

我想我們都知道，談到摩爾定律，我們的客戶要求我們提高晶體管密度，基本上每兩年將其翻倍。我認為我們也知道，隨著時間的推移，光刻縮放的速度已經減慢，這基本上需要更多的晶體管堆疊或封裝。

And our customers are really asking us to help there because what they want is also speed, is also over time accuracy, and I will say some of the technology we have been developing for our litho portfolio. So this is a bit the starting point. I think we also mentioned mostly, we'll be looking at some more product there. I think what's very interesting is the interest we see from our customer on this product. It's a i-line scanner to answer your technology. So this is based basically on i-line technology. which, of course, we have had at ASML for many years.

我們的客戶確實要求我們提供幫助，因為他們想要的也是速度，也是長期準確性，我想說的是，我們一直在為我們的光刻產品組合開發一些技術。所以這是一個起點。我想我們也主要提到過，我們將在那裡尋找更多產品。我認為非常有趣的是我們看到客戶對該產品的興趣。這是一款 i-line 掃描儀，可以解答您的技術問題。所以這基本上是基於 i-line 技術。當然，我們在 ASML 已經使用這項技術很多年了。

But in this case, we have a new optical design that really enable us to provide 4x improvement on productivity. Competition are basically the people who do i-line scanner. So I think you know them. But what's very interesting is that if we look at next year, we have quite a few customers very eager to take this technology. And because we provide a nice technology, some good improvement.

但在這種情況下，我們採用了一種新的光學設計，真正使我們能夠將生產力提高 4 倍。競爭對手基本上都是做 i-line 掃描器的人。所以我想你認識他們。但非常有趣的是，如果我們展望明年，我們會有相當多的客戶非常渴望採用這項技術。而且由於我們提供了很好的技術，因此也帶來了一些很好的改進。

I will say that the business and the benefit we can get out of this product is quite a lot higher than what we have done historically on High NA.

我想說的是，我們從這款產品中獲得的業務和收益比我們過去在 High NA 上獲得的收益要高得多。

Okay. And the follow-up would be about the gross margin in 2026. I know you're not giving guidance, and you will say more in January, but -- given what you have described, i.e., less China, more EUV, but also at the same time, more EUV High NA. Can we expect some increase in the gross margin next year?

好的。後續會關注2026年的毛利率。我知道您沒有給出指導，您將在一月份透露更多信息，但是——根據您所描述的，即減少中國，增加 EUV，但同時增加 EUV High NA。我們可以預期明年的毛利率會增加嗎？

Yes, Stephane. I will give -- we will give more clarity on that, obviously, in January. But I think you're right, our product mix obviously is very -- in what drives it. And then as you know, what we ship to China today to a very large extent, is immersion. Immersion comes with a very good gross margin.

是的，史蒂芬。我會給出——顯然，我們會在一月份對此做出更明確的說明。但我認為你是對的，我們的產品組合顯然非常——取決於它的驅動力。如你所知，我們今天向中國出口的很大一部分是沉浸式體驗。沉浸式體驗的毛利率非常高。

So less China business would be dilutive on that front. But you're right, EUV comes in with very strong gross margin. So therefore, if we predict that EUV, particularly low enables up, that would be a positive, again, on the other hand. And then there is a question on the number of tools that we're going to recognize for High NA, which, of course, is still dilutive to the corporate gross margin. So I think that's an important one.

因此，中國業務的減少將會削弱這方面的優勢。但您說得對，EUV 的毛利率非常高。因此，如果我們預測 EUV，特別是低 EUV 能夠啟用，那麼從另一方面來說，這將是正面的。然後有一個關於我們將要識別的高 NA 工具數量的問題，當然，這仍然會稀釋企業的毛利率。所以我認為這很重要。

And the other one is our expectation on the installed base business. You know that particularly the upgrade business is pretty important, when it comes to gross margin. So it's all those moving parts exactly where they land will eventually determine what our expectation is. But those are indeed the moving parts is product mix, and it's the expectation on the composition of the installed base business, which, first and foremost, is going to drive that perspective.

另一個是我們對已安裝基礎業務的期望。您知道，就毛利率而言，升級業務尤其重要。因此，所有這些活動部件的確切位置最終將決定我們的期望。但這些確實是產品組合中變動的部分，而且是對已安裝基礎業務構成的預期，而這首先將推動這一觀點。

Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

克里斯‧卡索 (Chris Caso)，沃爾夫研究公司。

I guess the first question is on installed base. And if you could update us on your thinking as we go into calendar '26. Previously, you had talked about having to back out some of the upgrade revenue as you go into '26. What's the current thinking on an installed base as we go into next year?

我想第一個問題是關於安裝基礎的。當我們進入 26 年日曆時，您是否可以向我們更新您的想法？之前，您曾談到進入 26 年時必須放棄部分升級收入。進入明年，我們對安裝基礎有何看法？

Yes. I think you -- well, let's first be the installed base for this year, right? So I think you will see that our expectation for the installed base this year has actually gone up a bit if you look at what we guide for Q4, because originally, we thought that the first half was going to be quite a bit stronger than the second half. And now that second half is as strong as the first half. What you see there is that actually the service business is developing quite nicely.

是的。我想你——好吧，我們首先來看看今年的安裝基礎，對吧？因此，我認為，如果你看看我們對第四季度的預測，你會發現我們對今年安裝基數的預期實際上有所上升，因為最初我們認為上半年的表現會比下半年強勁得多。現在下半場的表現和上半場一樣強勁。您所看到的是，服務業實際上發展得相當好。

And so while we might have had a bit more upgrade business in the first half, the second half is really benefiting from the service business.

因此，雖然我們上半年的升級業務可能稍微多一些，但下半年真正受益的是服務業務。

As you know, the service business is very much tied to the development of the installed base in EUV, right? And with the increase in the installed base in EUV. Of course, that also drives -- further drives up the service business. So that's an important one that I think you can sort of back of the envelope, calculate what the impact of that is going to be for next year. And then the question indeed is, how sustainable is the upgrade business.

如您所知，服務業務與 EUV 安裝基礎的發展密切相關，對嗎？並且隨著 EUV 安裝基數的增加。當然，這也進一步推動了服務業務的發展。所以這是一個重要的問題，我認為你可以粗略地計算這對明年會產生什麼影響。那麼問題確實是，升級業務的可持續性如何。

So clearly, it didn't fall off a cliff in the second half of this year, and we'll give you an update in January what our expectation is for '26.

顯然，今年下半年它並沒有大幅下滑，我們將在 1 月向您更新我們對 26 年的預期。

That's helpful. Just as a follow-up and maybe summarizing some of the earlier comments about some of the more optimism -- the optimism you had with regard to some of the AI developments. I mean, is it safe to say that the bookings -- the total bookings haven't really increased here. Is this more a function of your customers are telling you based on some of these developments there's sort of an expectation for stronger bookings in coming quarters, because of the capacity needed to provide that as compared to what's in the backlog right now? I guess this is an indicator of potentially stronger bookings if this comes to fruition?

這很有幫助。只是作為後續，也許總結一下之前關於一些更樂觀的評論——您對一些人工智慧發展持樂觀態度。我的意思是，可以肯定地說，這裡的預訂量——總預訂量實際上並沒有增加嗎？這是否更取決於您的客戶是否根據這些發展告訴您，他們預計未來幾季的預訂量會更高，因為與目前積壓的訂單相比，需要更大的容量來提供這種預訂量？我想，如果這項計劃得以實現，這將預示著預訂量可能會增加？

Yes. I think, Chris, that is indeed the way to look at it. You know our view on bookings, right? The bookings we always say it's not necessarily a good proxy of the business momentum. I think that bookings that we had in this quarter are actually pretty decent as they were pretty decent in the previous quarter without being downright spectacular, but pretty decent for sure.

是的。克里斯，我認為這確實是正確的看法。您知道我們對預訂的看法，對嗎？我們總是說，預訂量不一定能很好地反映業務動能。我認為我們本季的預訂量實際上相當不錯，因為上一季的預訂量也相當不錯，雖然不是特別出色，但肯定相當不錯。

But indeed, I think most of the things -- most of the positive developments that Christophe talked about, Christophe actually said it, they only partially affect '26. So most of this, so the AI investments, the fact that multiple customers of us are benefiting from AI. While in the past, we always said it's only a limited number of customers that are benefiting from AI.

但事實上，我認為大多數事情——克里斯托夫談到的大多數積極發展，克里斯托夫實際上也說過，它們只是部分地影響了 26 年。因此，其中大部分，即人工智慧投資，事實上我們的多個客戶都從人工智慧中受益。而過去我們總是說只有有限數量的客戶能夠從人工智慧中受益。

The technology progress that Christophe referred to, the fact that we see more and more layer transitioning to EUV. So all that is good stuff. But all of that, I would say, is good stuff, not just -- not necessarily being cashed in for '26, but primarily beyond that. So I think that's the way to look at it. All good stuff.

Christophe 提到的技術進步是，我們看到越來越多的層過渡到 EUV。所以這些都是好東西。但我想說，所有這些都是好東西，不僅僅是——不一定能在 26 年兌現，而且主要意義超出了這一點。所以我認為這就是看待這個問題的方式。都是好東西。

Definitely some of those having a partial impact on '26. But the great optimism is also, I would say, for what it does to the business in the longer term.

其中一些肯定會對 26 年產生部分影響。但我想說的是，人們也對它長期對業務產生的影響抱持著極大的樂觀態度。

Timm Schulze-Melander, Rothschild & Co Redburn.

蒂姆·舒爾茨-梅蘭德，羅斯柴爾德公司雷德本。

Maybe to begin with -- for Christophe on the High NA technology maturity. Could you maybe just talk a little bit about on what measures High NA is kind of ahead of 0.33 at a similar point in time. And then just thinking out to sort of 2028 and that journey, are you kind of halfway there, 3 quarters of the way there? And then I had a quick follow-up for Roger.

也許首先要討論的是 Christophe 的高 NA 技術成熟度。您能否稍微談談在相似的時間點上高 NA 是如何領先於 0.33 的。然後想像一下 2028 年的旅程，您是否已經走了一半的路程，或者走了四分之三的路程？然後我對羅傑進行了快速跟進。

Well, I think it's a good question. So typically, when we look at the maturity of the system, I think there's two elements to it. The first one is when do we demonstrate the final specification of the tool that our customer. And when we look at the EXE:5200, we expect that to happen in the next few months, most probably this year. So that means that we validate the overall capability of the system. That's point number one.

嗯，我認為這是個好問題。因此，通常，當我們考察系統的成熟度時，我認為它有兩個要素。第一個問題是我們何時向客戶展示工具的最終規格。當我們查看 EXE:5200 時，我們預計這將在未來幾個月內發生，很可能是在今年。這意味著我們驗證了系統的整體能力。這是第一點。

And point number two is the availability of the tool, how much -- what percentage of the time, the tool can be used to run wafer? And I think there is a major difference between Low NA and High NA is that when we looked at Low NA maturity back at the time we were ramping the product and the availability was really dragged down for many years by the source performance. The source was by far the biggest detractor of our maturity on the Low NA to.

第二點是該工具的可用性，即該工具在多大比例的時間內可用於運行晶圓？我認為低 NA 和高 NA 之間的主要區別在於，當我們回顧當時的低 NA 成熟度時，我們正在提升產品，可用性確實因源性能而拖累了很多年。到目前為止，這個來源是我們在低 NA 成熟度方面最大的阻礙。

Now I think you're pretty aware that the source of High NA is exactly the same as the one on Low NA. And if we look at the availability number of the source itself, we are exactly matching the performance of Low NA. So what is basically separating us from today to find a maturity is just a platform itself. And there, our experience is that most probably in 12 months, 18 months from now, we will be in a very good shape.

現在我想您已經很清楚高 NA 的來源與低 NA 的來源完全相同。如果我們查看來源本身的可用性數字，我們會發現它與低 NA 的效能完全匹配。因此，從根本上來說，今天阻礙我們尋求成熟的只是平臺本身。根據我們的經驗，從現在起 12 個月或 18 個月後，我們很可能就會處於非常好的狀態。

So there's no showstopper in the way we look at it today when it comes to maturity of the tool. There is few more months we have to work with our customer to validate that. But when I look at the technology, when I look at the reason why we were struggling with Low NA, those reasons are not with us with High NA. And that's why I think our customers are also eager to report that maturity. That's also what they see, and that's also their logic there.

因此，從我們今天的角度來看，該工具的成熟度並沒有什麼障礙。我們還需要幾個月的時間與客戶合作來驗證這一點。但是當我審視這項技術時，當我審視我們在低 NA 方面遇到困難的原因時，我發現這些原因在高 NA 方面並不存在。這就是為什麼我認為我們的客戶也渴望報告這種成熟度。這也是他們所看到的，這也是他們的邏輯。

Great. Very, very helpful. Maybe, Roger, just in terms of profitability, High NA that you recognize revenue on, could you just maybe talk about -- I know gross margin is dilutive, but are we positive? What's the sort of runway there? And then maybe just thinking about the operating expenses given the maturity of the High NA platform, what's the outlook for the sort of cadence of R&D expense, the R&D burden for the business going forward?

偉大的。非常非常有幫助。羅傑，也許，僅就盈利能力而言，您確認收入的高 NA，您能否談談 - 我知道毛利率是稀釋性的，但我們是否持積極態度？那裡的跑道是什麼樣的？然後也許只是考慮一下在高 NA 平台成熟度下的營運費用，未來研發費用的節奏和業務研發負擔的前景如何？

Yes. Timm, so yes, indeed High NA is dilutive. The key thing that will make it less dilutive or the key thing that will drive up the gross margin is volume, right? Because you have a significant capability both in the factory and also in field for High NA. But that total cost base is only absorbed by a very limited number of tools.

是的。提姆，是的，高 NA 確實具有稀釋作用。降低稀釋性或提高毛利率的關鍵因素是銷量，對嗎？因為您在工廠和現場都擁有高 NA 的強大能力。但總成本基礎僅由極有限數量的工具吸收。

So it's volume that is ultimately going to drive up the gross margin.

因此，銷量最終將推動毛利率的上升。

So as Christophe was saying, you're taking stuff into high-volume manufacturing in the '28, '29 time frame, right? And that's where, in all likelihood, you're going to see meaningful numbers. At that stage, you will see the gross margin profile improving. I did say at the Capital Markets Day that even by 2030, I still expect High NA to be margin dilutive, right? Because it takes quite a long time before you get on the maturity curve and before you get significant volume for this to meaningfully contribute, but at that time frame once you get meaningful numbers at that stage, the dilutive nature of it will be limited.

所以正如克里斯托夫所說的那樣，你們將在 28、29 年的時間範圍內將產品投入大批量生產，對嗎？在那裡，您很有可能會看到有意義的數字。在那個階段，你會看到毛利率狀況有所改善。我在資本市場日確實說過，即使到了 2030 年，我仍然預計高 NA 會稀釋利潤率，對嗎？因為要花相當長的時間才能達到成熟度曲線，才能獲得顯著的交易量，才能做出有意義的貢獻，但在那個時間範圍內，一旦你在那個階段獲得了有意義的數字，它的稀釋性質就會受到限制。

In terms of --

按照--

Are we profitable?

我們獲利了嗎？

What was that?

那是什麼？

Sorry, just a bit, but was it profitable at the gross margin level in the quarter? Or is it still loss making, please?

抱歉，有點兒，但是本季的毛利率水準是否獲利了？或者說它仍然在虧損嗎？

You mean, High NA?

您的意思是高 NA？

Yes.

是的。

High NA is very low margins. It's very low margins. But you're talking very low positive margin that's what you look at. In terms of operating expenses, R&D. I would say we still have a formidable road map ahead of us.

高 NA 意味著非常低的利潤率。利潤率非常低。但您說的正利潤率非常低，這就是您所看到的。營業費用方面，研發。我想說，我們面前仍然有一張艱鉅的路線圖。

So in spite of the fact that we have High NA up and running, you hear us -- if you look at the road map, if you look significant breakthroughs that we think we can still push in terms of Low NA, in terms of productivity of those tools, in terms of imaging quality there, but also the progress that we continue to make on some of the Deep UV tools that we talked about, we still have a pretty formidable road map.

因此，儘管我們已經啟動並運行了高數值孔徑，但你聽到我們說——如果你看一下路線圖，如果你看到我們認為我們仍然可以在低數值孔徑、這些工具的生產力、成像質量方面取得重大突破，而且我們在我們談到的一些深紫外線工具上繼續取得進展，我們仍然有一個相當強大的路線圖。

I would say, however, we are looking at increasing -- further increasing the efficiency that we get out of the organization. So from that vantage point, I do believe that you will continue to see us manage our -- both our SG&A and our R&D quite nicely because we do feel that out of the formidable team that we have here at ASML R&D department, we can get even more value and efficiency there. So I think you will see us navigate those numbers quite diligently and keep the increases quite controlled.

不過，我想說的是，我們正在考慮進一步提高組織的效率。因此，從這個角度來看，我確實相信您會繼續看到我們很好地管理我們的銷售、一般和行政費用以及研發費用，因為我們確實覺得，憑藉 ASML 研發部門強大的團隊，我們可以獲得更多的價值和效率。所以我想你會看到我們非常努力地控制這些數字，並將成長保持在相當可控的範圍內。

Alex Duval, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的亞歷克斯杜瓦爾。

You talked today about lithography intensity inflecting positively. I just wondered if you could clarify the time line you're thinking about here? And to what extent this is a function of progress having been made in the gate all around transition versus other factors? And secondly, we've discussed on this call today about the degree of ambition around AI investment. But we've also seen news items talking about AI chip makers being more aggressive on the nodes they target for future chips.

您今天談到了光刻強度的正面影響。我只是想知道您是否可以澄清一下您在這裡考慮的時間線？這在多大程度上取決於轉型過程中所取得的進展以及其他因素？其次，我們在今天的電話會議上討論了對人工智慧投資的雄心程度。但我們也看到一些新聞報導，人工智慧晶片製造商在未來晶片的目標節點上更加積極。

And that seems to be somewhat different to how one had thought about where they would locate themselves relative to the bleeding edge. So I wondered if you could talk about the implications for ASML of a faster cadence of these more powerful AI chips over time?

這似乎與人們所想的他們相對於尖端技術所處的位置有些不同。所以我想知道您是否可以談談隨著時間的推移，這些更強大的 AI 晶片的更快發展節奏對 ASML 有何影響？

Well, on the first question, I think nothing really new there compared to the last few quarters. I think on logic, we spent a few times, the gate-all-around transition is happening without an increase on the number of EUV layers just because customers typically do first the transistor change before they start shrinking more aggressively again, which we still expect to happen at [A14, A18]. So I think very consistent there in the previous view.

嗯，關於第一個問題，我認為與過去幾個季度相比，並沒有什麼新情況。我認為從邏輯上講，我們花了幾次時間，在不增加 EUV 層數的情況下實現了全柵極轉換，因為客戶通常會先進行晶體管轉換，然後再開始更積極地縮小尺寸，我們仍然希望這種情況會發生[A14，A18]。所以我認為這與之前的觀點非常一致。

I think in DRAM, we talked about four of Square already today, we have got since the Capital Market Day last year, we've got a lot of confirmation that, indeed, DRAM could get more aggressive in terms of EUV adoption for 6 square for EFCO as well, as I mentioned.

我認為在 DRAM 方面，我們今天已經討論了 Square 的 4 塊晶圓，自去年資本市場日以來，我們已經得到了很多確認，事實上，正如我所提到的，DRAM 在 EUV 採用方面可以變得更加積極，EFCO 的 6 塊晶圓也是如此。

So there, I would say, the trajectory is very strong towards more use of advanced litho moving forward. Now the second question is a good one. And I think we also mentioned last year in November that more AI application will drive more advanced Logic and more advanced DRAM. And I think mostly that part is still to be seen because we're looking at 12 months, which is a fraction of a node in terms of timing. But I think what you see happening is what you describe is those application, the value people can extract out of those applications can justify most probably moving to new nodes that are more expensive, as you have noticed, looking at the price of the wafer.

因此，我想說，未來更多使用先進光刻技術的發展軌跡非常強勁。第二個問題很好。我記得我們去年 11 月也提到過，更多的人工智慧應用將推動更先進的邏輯和更先進的 DRAM。我認為大部分情況還有待觀察，因為我們正在研究 12 個月，從時間角度來看這只是節點的一小部分。但我認為，您所看到的情況就是您所描述的那些應用，人們可以從這些應用中提取的價值很可能可以證明轉向更昂貴的新節點是合理的，正如您所注意到的，看看晶圓的價格。

But today can be justified by the value of AI, and this has changed indeed the way people used to look at the industry. When we look at the industry driving mobile only, there was a lot of doubt on that the next advanced logic node makes sense.

但今天可以透過人工智慧的價值來證明，這確實改變了人們過去看待這個產業的方式。當我們只專注於推動行動發展的產業時，我們對下一個先進邏輯節點是否有意義存在許多疑問。

I think that those nodes, those dots have gone away quite a bit. And I think that the size and the speed of the ramp of 2-nanometer node on logic are the very first proof of that. But we would expect that also trend to continue. We have not seen yet a real acceleration per se. But we mentioned again the larger customer base for those products.

我認為那些節點、那些點已經消失不少了。我認為 2 奈米節點在邏輯上的規模和速度就是對此的第一個證明。但我們預計這種趨勢還會持續下去。我們尚未看到真正的加速。但我們再次提到這些產品擁有更大的客戶群。

And as you know, also, a larger customer base also means that you get more competition and potentially also more motivation to move faster on those advanced nodes. So I think that question is a very good one and one that we all have to look at in the next 12 months.

而且如您所知，更大的客戶群也意味著您將面臨更多的競爭，並且可能更有動力在這些先進節點上更快地發展。所以我認為這個問題非常好，也是我們所有人都必須在未來 12 個月內研究的問題。

Okay. We have time for one last question. If you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact ASML Investor Relations with your question. Now operator, can we have the last caller, please?

好的。我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。如果您無法接通此電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部提出您的問題。接線生，請問我們可以接聽最後一位來電嗎？

Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna Financial Group.

薩斯奎漢納金融集團的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes. All good questions have been asked. I just have two follow-ups, one for Christophe. Obviously, we're all seeing the headlines with AI and everything, and you have been in highlighting how AI could drive incremental investment. But the way I see it, you're also constrained with increased concentration of customers, especially on Logic and 1 customer is doing all the investment for the leading edge.

是的。所有好的問題都已提出。我只有兩個後續問題，一個是給克里斯托夫的。顯然，我們都看到了有關人工智慧和其他一切的頭條新聞，而您也一直在強調人工智慧如何推動增量投資。但在我看來，你也會受到客戶集中度增加的限制，特別是在 Logic 上，一個客戶正在為領先優勢進行所有的投資。

And that by itself drives more volatility in your booking, backlog and even quarterly revenue. And I'm not asking you to name the customer, but is that the right way of thinking about how AI is incremental, but it does limit your visibility and I have a follow-up.

這本身就會導致您的預訂、積壓訂單甚至季度收入的波動性加大。我並不是要求您說出客戶的名字，但這是關於人工智慧如何漸進式發展的正確思考方式，但它確實限制了您的可見性，我有一個後續問題。

Yes, I don't think we need to mention the customer. Your point is clear. But I think we discussed that. I don't think there was any concern in terms of either visibility or in terms of sometimes pricing power. That's a question we got a lot if we had only one customer.

是的，我認為我們不需要提及客戶。你的觀點很明確。但我想我們討論過這個問題。我認為在可見性或有時定價權方面不存在任何擔憂。如果我們只有一個客戶，我們就會經常被問到這個問題。

I think the only concern really when you have only one customer is are we going to be supply limited? Are we going to look at the market that is supply limited because if you have one customer, well, the market will have the size of what that market that customer can deliver.

我認為，當你只有一個客戶時，唯一真正需要擔心的是我們的供應是否會受到限制？我們是否要專注於供應有限的市場，因為如果您有一個客戶，那麼，市場規模就取決於該客戶所能提供的供應量。

So I think this was a bit a bigger concern. So I think that's a concern that most probably goes beyond ASML, right? It's what we discussed before because it's great to get all those good news about AI infrastructure investment. But at some point of time, you have to get the chips out. And as we mentioned a few times already today, I think that the news in the last few months of most probably more customers being able to play in AI, both for Logic and DRAM I think, is a very interesting development for the entire market, and that applies also, of course, for us.

所以我認為這是一個更大的問題。所以我認為這很可能是一個超出 ASML 範圍的擔憂，對嗎？這是我們之前討論過的，因為獲得有關人工智慧基礎設施投資的所有好消息真是太好了。但在某個時間點，你必須把籌碼拿出來。正如我們今天已經提到過幾次的那樣，我認為過去幾個月的消息表明，很可能有更多客戶能夠在人工智慧領域發揮作用，無論是邏輯還是 DRAM，這對整個市場來說都是一個非常有趣的發展，當然，這也適用於我們。

Sure. And a follow-up for Roger, how should I think about working capital intensity over the past several quarters inventories have actually gone up, same with accounts receivable. As shipment strength improves, should I expect some improvement here with working capital and just overall cash from operations?

當然。還有羅傑的後續問題，我該如何看待過去幾季的營運資本密集度？庫存實際上有所上升，應收帳款也是如此。隨著出貨量增加，我是否應該期待營運資金和整體營運現金流會有所改善？

Yes. I think working capital is going up. Inventory is going up to a large extent because of High NA, right? With High NA, it takes quite some time before a system is being installed. As a result of that, obviously, that drives up the inventory level there. So I think that's a major element.

是的。我認為營運資本正在增加。由於高 NA，庫存大幅增加，對嗎？由於 NA 較高，安裝系統需要相當長的時間。顯然，這會導致那裡的庫存水準上升。所以我認為這是一個主要因素。

The other element is down payments, right? So that's the other side of the equation. So to the extent that down payments kick in, and that obviously is related to order intake. That's an important negative. I would say those are probably the two most important elements in there.

另一個因素是首付，對嗎？這就是等式的另一邊。因此，就首付款的支付範圍而言，這顯然與訂單量有關。這是一個重要的負面因素。我想說這可能是其中最重要的兩個元素。

So when it comes to High NA, an important element in there, obviously, is reducing cycle time. That's a very important driver of driving down the working capital that is tied up in High NA. And that's something that we're very clearly working on But of course, there, you need to have the volumes in order to make meaningful progress there.

因此，當談到高 NA 時，其中一個重要因素顯然是縮短週期時間。這是降低高 NA 所佔用的營運資金的一個非常重要的驅動因素。這正是我們正在努力的事情，但當然，你需要有足夠的數量才能取得有意義的進展。

So I think the working capital levels that you're currently looking at, I think I saw the reasonable, I would say, for the business that we have today. To the extent that we're able to drive down cycle time, that, I think, is the single biggest driver of reducing working capital for us.

因此，我認為您目前正在關注的營運資本水準對於我們今天的業務來說是合理的。我認為，只要我們能夠縮短週期時間，這就是減少營運資本的最大驅動力。

Now on behalf of ASML, I would like to thank you all for joining us today.

現在，我謹代表 ASML 感謝大家今天的參加。

Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thank you.

接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes the ASML 2025 third-quarter financial results conference call. Thank you for participating.

ASML 2025 年第三季財務業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。