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Operator
Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2025 fourth quarter and full year financial results conference call on January 28, 2026. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Jim Kavanagh. Please go ahead.
您好,感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加 ASML 2025 年第四季及全年財務業績電話會議,會議將於 2026 年 1 月 28 日舉行。(操作說明)現在我將把會議交給吉姆·卡瓦納先生。請繼續。
Jim Kavanagh - VP Investor Relations - Worldwide
Jim Kavanagh - VP Investor Relations - Worldwide
Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Jim Kavanagh, Head of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2025 fourth quarter and full year results.
謝謝接線生。歡迎各位。這是ASML投資者關係主管吉姆·卡瓦納。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有ASML的執行長Christophe Fouquet和我們的財務長Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是ASML 2025年第四季和全年業績。
The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at www.asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.
本次通話時間為 60 分鐘,問題將依收到順序回答。本次電話會議同時在www.asml.com網站進行網路直播。會議結束後不久,管理階層開場白文字稿和會議錄音將會發佈在我們的網站上。
Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties.
在會議開始之前,我想提醒各位聽眾,管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包含聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。
For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbour statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at www.asml.com and in our ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and in other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
有關風險因素的討論,我建議您查閱今天新聞稿和簡報中包含的「安全港」聲明,這些內容可在我們的網站 www.asml.com 上找到,也可查閱 ASML 的 20-F 表格年度報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中查閱。
With that, I would like to turn the call over to Christophe Fouquet for a brief introduction.
接下來,我想把電話交給克里斯托夫‧富凱,讓他做個簡短的介紹。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Jim. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the fourth quarter results and full year 2025 results as well as provide some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook. Roger?
謝謝你,吉姆。歡迎各位參加我們2025年第四季及全年業績電話會議,感謝各位的蒞臨。在開始問答環節之前,我和羅傑想對第四季業績和 2025 年全年業績進行概述和一些評論,並就當前的商業環境和我們未來的業務展望提供一些補充意見。羅傑?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Thank you, Christophe, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial accomplishments and then provide guidance for the first quarter of 2026. Let me start with our fourth quarter accomplishments.
謝謝你,克里斯托夫,也歡迎各位。我將首先回顧 2025 年第四季和全年的財務業績,然後對 2026 年第一季的業績進行展望。首先,讓我介紹一下我們第四季所取得的成就。
In fourth quarter of 2025, total net sales were EUR9.7 billion, which is within our guidance. Net system sales were EUR7.6 billion, which includes EUR3.6 billion from EUV system sales, including two High-NA systems, and EUR4 billion from non-EUV system sales.
2025 年第四季總淨銷售額為 97 億歐元,符合我們的預期。淨系統銷售額為 76 億歐元,其中包括 EUV 系統銷售額 36 億歐元(包括兩組高數值孔徑系統),以及非 EUV 系統銷售額 40 億歐元。
Net system sales were driven by Logic at 70%, with the remaining 30% coming from Memory. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR2.1 billion, as guided. Gross margin for the quarter was also within guidance at 52.2%.
淨系統銷售額中,邏輯電路貢獻了 70%,其餘 30% 來自記憶體。本季已安裝基礎管理銷售額為 21 億歐元,與預期相符。本季毛利率也符合預期,為 52.2%。
On operating expenses, R&D expenses were slightly higher than expected at rounded EUR1.3 billion mainly due to higher nonrecurring personnel costs and the recognition of a grant that shifted into 2026. SG&A expenses also came in higher than guided at EUR375 million, driven mostly by higher mainly nonrecurring salary-related costs, the sale of receivables and pull-in of certain IT spending.
在營運支出方面,研發支出略高於預期,約為 13 億歐元,主要原因是非經常性人員成本較高以及確認了一項延期至 2026 年的撥款。銷售、一般及行政費用也高於預期,達到 3.75 億歐元,主要原因是與工資相關的非經常性成本增加、應收帳款出售以及某些 IT 支出的增加。
The effective tax rate for Q4 was 18%. For the full year 2025, the annualized effective tax rate came in at 17.7%. Net income in Q4 was EUR2.8 billion, representing 29.2% of total net sales, resulting in earnings per share of EUR7.35.
第四季實際稅率為18%。2025 年全年,年化有效稅率為 17.7%。第四季淨利為 28 億歐元,佔總淨銷售額的 29.2%,每股收益為 7.35 歐元。
Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the fourth quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR13.3 billion. Our Q4 free cash flow was EUR10.9 billion, which was significantly higher relative to the previous quarters of this year, with the majority of the cash coming in at the very end of the quarter.
接下來看一下資產負債表。第四季末,我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資總額為 133 億歐元。我們第四季的自由現金流為 109 億歐元,與今年前幾季相比顯著成長,其中大部分現金都集中在季末流入。
Moving to the order book. Q4 net bookings came in at EUR13.2 billion, split between EUR7.4 billion of EUV systems and EUR5.8 billion of non-EUV systems. Net bookings in the quarter were slightly weighted towards Memory with 56% in bookings and Logic accounting for the remaining 44%.
轉到訂單簿。第四季淨訂單金額為 132 億歐元,其中 EUV 系統為 74 億歐元,非 EUV 系統為 58 億歐元。本季淨預訂量中,內存類產品佔比略高,達 56%,邏輯類產品佔比為 44%。
Turning now to the full year. Net sales came in at EUR32.7 billion with a gross margin of 62.8%. EUV system sales realized from 48 systems, including High-NA, were EUR11.6 billion, which was 39% higher than 2024. Deep UV system sales decreased 6% year-over-year to EUR12 billion.
現在進入全年展望。淨銷售額達 327 億歐元,毛利率為 62.8%。EUV 系統銷售額(包括高數值孔徑系統)為 48 個系統,達到 116 億歐元,比 2024 年成長 39%。深紫外線系統銷售額較去年同期下降 6% 至 120 億歐元。
Our metrology and inspection system sales increased 28% from 2024 to EUR825 million. Looking at the market segments for 2025. Logic system revenue was EUR16.1 billion, 22% higher than 2024.
到了 2024 年,我們的計量和偵測系統銷售額成長 28%,達到 8.25 億歐元。展望2025年的市場區隔。邏輯系統收入為 161 億歐元,比 2024 年成長 22%。
Memory system revenue was EUR8.4 billion, 2% lower than 2024, and Installed Base Management sales were EUR8.2 billion, 26% higher than 2024. We concluded 2025 with a backlog of around EUR38.8 billion. In 2025, we continue to invest in innovation across our full product portfolio, increasing R&D standing to EUR4.7 billion or about 14% of sales.
記憶體系統營收為 84 億歐元,較 2024 年下降 2%;已安裝基礎管理銷售額為 82 億歐元,較 2024 年成長 26%。截至 2025 年底,我們的積壓訂單約為 388 億歐元。2025年,我們將繼續投資於所有產品組合的創新,將研發投入增加到47億歐元,約佔銷售額的14%。
SG&A increased to EUR1.3 billion in 2025, which was about 4%. Net income for the full year was EUR9.6 billion, 29.4% of net sales, resulting in an earnings per share of EUR24.73. 2025, we generated free cash flow of EUR11 billion.
2025 年銷售、一般及行政費用增至 13 億歐元,增幅約 4%。全年淨利為96億歐元,佔淨銷售額的29.4%,每股收益為24.73歐元。 2025年,我們創造了110億歐元的自由現金流。
With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the first quarter of 2026. We expect Q1 total net sales to be between EUR8.2 billion and EUR8.9 billion. We expect our Q1 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR2.4 billion.
接下來,我想談談我們對 2026 年第一季的預期。我們預計第一季總淨銷售額將在 82 億歐元至 89 億歐元之間。我們預計第一季已安裝基礎管理銷售額約 24 億歐元。
Gross margin for Q1 is expected to be between 51% and 53%. Expected R&D expenses for Q1 are around EUR1.2 billion, and SG&A is expected to be around EUR0.3 billion. For the full year 2026, we expect net sales to be between EUR34 billion and EUR39 billion, with a gross margin of between 51% and 53%.
預計第一季毛利率將在 51% 至 53% 之間。預計第一季研發費用約 12 億歐元,銷售、管理及行政費用約 3 億歐元。預計 2026 年全年淨銷售額將在 340 億歐元至 390 億歐元之間,毛利率將在 51% 至 53% 之間。
Regarding our cash return to our shareholders in Q4, ASML interim dividend over 2025 of EUR1.60 per ordinary share. ASML intends to declare a total dividend for the year 2025 of EUR7.50 per ordinary share, which is a 17% increase compared to 2024.
關於我們第四季向股東返還的現金,ASML 將於 2025 年派發每股普通股 1.60 歐元的臨時股息。ASML 計劃宣布 2025 年每股普通股派發 7.50 歐元的股息,比 2024 年增長 17%。
An interim dividend of EUR1.60 per ordinary share will be made payable on February 18, 2026. Recognizing this interim dividend and the two interim dividends of EUR1.60 per ordinary share paid in 2025, this leads to a total dividend -- final dividend proposal to the Annual General Meeting of EUR2.70 per ordinary share.
將於2026年2月18日派發每股普通股1.60歐元的臨時股利。考慮到此次中期股息以及 2025 年派發的每股普通股 1.60 歐元的兩次中期股息,最終向年度股東大會提出的股息總額為每股普通股 2.70 歐元。
In Q4 2025, we purchased shares for a total amount of around EUR1.7 billion. This program finished in December 2025 with a total of EUR7.6 billion repurchased out of the up to EUR12 billion program. We returned EUR8.5 billion to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share buybacks in 2025.
2025 年第四季度,我們購買了總額約 17 億歐元的股票。該計畫於 2025 年 12 月結束,在高達 120 億歐元的計畫中,共回購了 76 億歐元。2025年,我們以分紅和股票回購的方式向股東返還了85億歐元。
ASML announced a new share buyback program effective today and to be executed by December 31, 2028. We intend to repurchase shares of an amount up to EUR12 billion, of which we expect a total of up to EUR2 million will be used to cover employee share plans. We intend to cancel the remainder of the shares repurchased.
ASML宣布了一項新的股票回購計劃,該計劃於今日生效,並將於2028年12月31日之前執行完畢。我們計劃回購總額高達 120 億歐元的股票,其中預計總額高達 200 萬歐元將用於支付員工持股計畫。我們打算註銷剩餘的已回購股份。
With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Christophe.
那麼,我願將電話交還給克里斯托夫。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, we finished the year with a very strong quarter with good financial results. The market outlook has improved notably over the last months, especially as related to the continued buildup of data centres and AI-related infrastructure.
謝謝你,羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的那樣,我們以一個非常強勁的季度和良好的財務業績結束了這一年。近幾個月來,市場前景顯著改善,尤其是在資料中心和人工智慧相關基礎設施持續建設方面。
This buildup is now translated into additional capacity needs at our advanced logic and DRAM customers and, in turn, an increased demand across our product portfolio, especially in our EUV business.
這種產能累積現在轉化為我們先進邏輯和DRAM客戶的額外產能需求,進而增加了我們整個產品組合的需求,尤其是在我們的EUV業務方面。
Over the past quarters, we have seen a notable increased acceleration of capacity expansion planning across a large majority of our customer base. In advanced logic, our foundry customers have become more positive on the long-term sustainability of demand on a number of fronts.
在過去的幾個季度裡,我們看到絕大多數客戶群的產能擴張計畫明顯加快。在高級邏輯領域,我們的代工廠客戶對多個方面需求的長期永續性變得更加樂觀。
AI accelerators are migrating from the four-nanometre node to the more litho-intensive three-nanometre node. At the same time, customers continue to ramp the two-nanometre node in support of next-generation HPC and mobile application.
AI 加速器正從 4 奈米節點遷移到光刻製程更複雜的 3 奈米節點。同時,客戶持續增加對兩奈米製程節點的投入,以支援下一代高效能運算和行動應用。
In Memory, our customers are reporting very strong demand for both HBM and DDR products, with supply remaining very tight through at least 2026 as they ramp both their 1B and 1C nodes in support of the demand. In addition, DRAM customers continue to adopt more EUV layers on those nodes.
在記憶體領域,我們的客戶報告稱,對 HBM 和 DDR 產品的需求非常強勁,由於他們正在加緊生產 1B 和 1C 節點以滿足需求,因此供應至少在 2026 年之前仍將非常緊張。此外,DRAM 客戶繼續在這些節點上採用更多的 EUV 層。
This is expected to continue on their future nodes as they migrate more multi-patterning Deep UV to single-exposed EUV, resulting in an increase in litho intensity.
預計這種情況將在他們未來的節點上繼續發生,因為他們將更多的多重圖案深紫外光刻技術遷移到單次曝光極紫外光刻技術,從而導致光刻強度增加。
As a result of these dynamics, we see our customer in both segments increasing and accelerating capacity expansion plans to support the very strong demand they are seeing. We expect these investments to generate business for ASML in 2026 and beyond.
由於這些動態因素,我們看到兩個領域的客戶都在增加和加快產能擴張計劃,以支持他們所看到的非常強勁的需求。我們預計這些投資將在 2026 年及以後為 ASML 帶來業務。
Starting first with EUV. We expect revenues to be up significantly this year as a result of the dynamics in both advanced logic and DRAM. In non-EUV, we expect revenues for 2026 to be similar to last year's as our advanced logic and memory customer expand capacity.
首先從極紫外光刻(EUV)開始。由於先進邏輯和DRAM領域的蓬勃發展,我們預計今年的營收將大幅成長。在非 EUV 領域,我們預計 2026 年的營收將與去年類似,因為我們的先進邏輯和記憶體客戶正在擴大產能。
As part of the outlook for non-EUV, we expect the China region share in our total net sales in 2026 to be in line with our current system backlog, which is around 20%. We also expect our metrology and inspection businesses to grow significantly as customers increasingly invest in enhancing their process control strategy.
作為非 EUV 業務展望的一部分,我們預計 2026 年中國地區在我們總淨銷售額中所佔的份額將與我們目前的系統積壓訂單量持平,約為 20%。我們也預計,隨著客戶不斷增加對增強其製程控制策略的投資,我們的計量和檢測業務也將顯著成長。
For Installed Base Management, we expect another year of revenue growth. This is primarily the result of increasing service revenue from our growing installed base of EUV systems and of our customer plans for performance upgrades to support their rapidly increasing capacity requirements.
對於已安裝基礎管理業務,我們預計未來一年營收將持續成長。這主要是由於我們不斷增長的 EUV 系統安裝基礎帶來的服務收入增加,以及我們的客戶為了滿足其快速增長的容量需求而製定的性能升級計劃。
Turning to technology. In EUV, we continue to make progress driving down the cost of technology on our customer most advanced processes. We ramped our NXE 3800E to 2025, and its productivity gains support further replacement of complex multi-patterning with single exposed EUV for multiple layers on current and future DRAM.
轉向科技。在 EUV 領域,我們不斷努力降低客戶最先進製程的技術成本。我們將 NXE 3800E 的產能提升計畫推進到 2025 年,其生產力的提升將支援進一步以單次曝光 EUV 取代目前和未來 DRAM 上多層複雜的多重曝光製程。
We also expect both immersion and EUV litho intensity to increase as customers migrate from 6F-squared technology to 4F-squared architectures.
我們也預計,隨著客戶從 6F² 技術遷移到 4F² 架構,浸沒式微影和 EUV 微影的強度都會增加。
With regard to High NA, our customers are reporting good progress on their qualification of the technology for logic and DRAM applications in their R&D facilities. Intel announced last month the qualification and acceptance of their EXE 5200B system, which will be used in high-volume manufacturing for their leading-edge nodes.
關於高數值孔徑 (NA) 技術,我們的客戶報告稱,他們在研發設施中對該技術在邏輯和 DRAM 應用方面的認證工作取得了良好進展。英特爾上個月宣布其 EXE 5200B 系統已通過認證和驗收,該系統將用於其尖端節點的大規模生產。
We expect more systems to be released to our customer in 2026, supporting their preparation for the insertion of High NA in high-volume manufacturing with the continued increase of 3D structure in advanced logic and memory, we see more adoption of our multi e-beam inspection system to detect optically nonvisible yield-limiting defects.
我們預計在 2026 年將向客戶發布更多系統,以支援他們在大量生產中引入高數值孔徑 (NA) 晶片。隨著先進邏輯和記憶體中 3D 結構的不斷增加,我們看到我們的多電子束檢測系統被更廣泛地採用,以檢測光學不可見的良率限制缺陷。
Our progress on system maturity and productivity supports further use of this multi-beam system in high-volume manufacturing on the most advanced nodes.
我們在系統成熟度和生產效率方面取得的進展,支持在最先進的節點上進一步將此多光束系統應用於大批量生產。
In summary, our product portfolio road map remains focused on supporting the road map requirements of our customers and driving our overall competitiveness. We look forward to sharing more performance data at the SPIE Advanced Lithography Conference in February.
總而言之,我們的產品組合路線圖仍專注於滿足客戶的路線圖需求,並提升我們的整體競爭力。我們期待在二月的 SPIE 先進光刻會議上分享更多性能數據。
Looking longer term, the last few months have confirmed the positive impact of AI on customer demand for our advanced product and especially for our EUV system.
從長遠來看,過去幾個月已經證實了人工智慧對客戶需求的正面影響,尤其是對我們的EUV系統的需求。
As we shared during our Capital Market Day in November 2024, we see the end market dynamics supporting a shift in product mix towards more demand for our advanced lithography products and an increase in litho intensity.
正如我們在 2024 年 11 月的資本市場日上分享的那樣,我們看到終端市場動態支援產品組合向對我們先進光刻產品的需求增加和光刻強度提高的方向轉變。
The combination of our strong productivity road map on Low NA and the introduction of High NA supports further cost of technology reduction.
我們強大的低NA生產力路線圖與高NA的引入相結合,有助於進一步降低技術成本。
It also supports the conversion of more multi-patterning Deep UV to single EUV exposure especially on advanced DRAM nodes. In line with what we shared the 2024 Capital Market Day, we expect a [EUR2000] revenue opportunity between EUR44 billion and EUR60 billion with an expected gross margin between 56% and 60%.
它還支援將更多多重曝光的深紫外光刻轉換為單次極紫外光刻,尤其是在先進的DRAM節點上。根據我們在 2024 年資本市場日上分享的內容,我們預計 [EUR2000] 的收入機會在 440 億歐元至 600 億歐元之間,預計毛利率在 56% 至 60% 之間。
With that, we will be happy to take your questions.
那麼,我們很樂意回答您的問題。
Jim Kavanagh - VP Investor Relations - Worldwide
Jim Kavanagh - VP Investor Relations - Worldwide
Thank you, Roger, and thank you, Christophe. Now the operator will instruct everyone momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session.
謝謝你,羅傑,也謝謝你,克里斯托夫。現在操作員將向大家簡要說明問答環節的流程。
Beforehand, I would like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-up, if necessary. This will allow us to get through as many callers as possible. Now operator, could we have your final instruction and then the first question, please?
在此之前,我想請您盡量只提一個問題,如有必要,可以簡短地追問一下。這樣可以讓我們盡可能接聽來電。操作員,請您給予最終指示,然後是第一個問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) CJ Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.
(操作說明)CJ Muse,Cantor Fitzgerald。
CJ Muse - Analyst
CJ Muse - Analyst
Yeah, good afternoon. Good morning. Thank you for taking the question. So I guess first question, trying to better understand your outlook for calendar '26. Based on your EUV bookings, it looks like you're entering the year with about 114 Low NA tools.
午安.早安.感謝您回答這個問題。所以我想問的第一個問題是,我想更了解您對2026年日曆的展望。根據您的 EUV 預訂情況,看來您今年年初將擁有約 114 台低北美工具。
And your implied guide is about 56, give or take, Low NA. So, is this a function of lack of certainty around the precise timing of clean room space ads? Are you facing challenges in sourcing lenses from Carl Zeiss? Are you seeing extension of lead times? Would love to hear your thoughts around those moving parts.
而你的隱含指導值大約是 56,上下浮動,低 NA。那麼,這是因為無塵室空間廣告的確切發佈時間缺乏確定性所造成的嗎?您在購買卡爾蔡司鏡頭時遇到困難嗎?您是否發現交貨週期延長?很想聽聽你對這些動態因素的看法。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Yes, C.J., good morning to you. Indeed, I think it's a number of the things that just called out, right? So obviously, we are ramping during the year to accommodate the demand is there. but the demand is also a little bit dependent on the progress that our customers are making in terms of the completion of their fabs during the year. So that's an important element in the bandwidth, if you like, of the guidance that we provide.
是的,C.J.,早安。確實,我認為正是這些方面引起了我的注意,對吧?很顯然,我們會在年內逐步提高產能以滿足需求。但需求也在一定程度上取決於客戶在年內完成其晶圓廠建設的進度。所以,如果你願意的話,這可以說是我們提供的指導的頻寬中的一個重要因素。
So to a large extent, it's driven by that. It's driven by our ability to execute and to continuously ramp or move rate quarter-on-quarter. Those, I would say, are the most important drivers of the corridor that you just alluded to.
所以很大程度上,這是由這種情況所驅動的。這主要取決於我們的執行能力以及逐季提高或調整成長率的能力。我認為,這些就是你剛才提到的這條走廊最重要的驅動因素。
CJ Muse - Analyst
CJ Muse - Analyst
Great, thanks. And as a follow-up, I guess, on the High-NA side, is there any change in terms of your vision for revenue in four to seven tools in calendar '26? And then more importantly, how are you thinking about adoption? Do you think there's an opportunity for follow-on High-NA orders in the second half? And could we be surprised by seeing DRAM adopt sooner than logic? Thank you.
太好了,謝謝。作為後續問題,我想問一下,在北美高成長市場方面,您對 2026 年日曆中四到七款工具的收入預期是否有任何變化?更重要的是,您對領養有什麼看法?你認為下半年還有機會追加北美高端訂單嗎?DRAM 比邏輯晶片更早被採用,這會不會讓我們感到驚訝?謝謝。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, I think there's no major changes compared to what we discussed last quarter, C.J. So I think that in terms of adoption, I mentioned it, we continue to see good progress at both DRAM and logic customer. I think some of our customers are even starting to play with limited product wafer to see the performance of the tool, which is a good news.
嗯,我認為與我們上個季度討論的內容相比,沒有重大變化,C.J.。就採用情況而言,正如我所提到的,我們在DRAM和邏輯客戶方面都繼續看到良好的進展。我認為我們的一些客戶甚至開始使用有限的產品晶圓來測試該工具的性能,這是一個好消息。
We still expect a lot of those qualification data collection to last most of the year, which means that when it comes to decision for insertion new order, we indeed look at the second half of this year, 2027.
我們仍然預期許多資格資料收集工作將持續到今年大部分時間,這意味著在決定是否下新訂單時,我們確實會考慮今年下半年,也就是 2027 年。
On the question if it's going to be DRAM and logic first, I think -- well, it's a bit of a neck-to-neck race right now. So hard to say. We see really good progress on both and the appetite to test the technology, I would say, in the coming months, sorry, on -- again, on product in both DRAM and Logic customer.
至於DRAM和邏輯電路是否會率先發展,我認為——嗯,目前來看,這是一場勢均力敵的競爭。很難說。我們看到這兩項都取得了非常好的進展,而且在接下來的幾個月裡,無論是 DRAM 還是邏輯電路客戶,都渴望測試這項技術。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Thank you. And maybe a final comment to CJ because he referenced, I think, 114 tools in the backlog, if I fit you correctly, on EUV. I would tell you, I think that's a little bit on the high end, at EUR25.5 billion of total value of EUV, I think, and that, and that obviously includes also high in a -- you might be a little bit on the high end of your unit number there.
謝謝。最後我想對 CJ 說一句,因為他提到了 EUV 的積壓工具,如果我沒理解錯的話,應該是 114 個。我認為,EUV 總價值 255 億歐元有點偏高,而且,這顯然也包括了很高的——你的單位數量可能有點偏高。
Operator
Operator
Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.
喬·夸特羅奇,富國銀行。
Joe Quatrochi - Analyst
Joe Quatrochi - Analyst
Yeah, thanks for taking the questions. I guess I wanted to just go back to the 2026 kind of revenue growth guidance. If I look at the range between 4% and 19% growth, what type of those variables, I guess, are ASML-controlled versus your customers controlled?
謝謝你回答這些問題。我想我只是想恢復到2026年那種營收成長預期。如果我看一下 4% 到 19% 之間的成長範圍,我想問的是,這些變數中哪些是由 ASML 控制的,哪些是由你們的客戶控制的?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Joe, I think I just said it, right? I mean it's obviously to a very large extent, driven by the progress that our customers are making in completing the fabs and their ability to take in the tools. So that's a significant one in terms of whether the demand falls in '26 or whether it falls a little bit beyond '26.
喬,我想我剛才已經說過了吧?我的意思是,這顯然在很大程度上是由我們的客戶在完成晶圓廠建設方面取得的進展以及他們接收工具的能力所驅動的。所以,這對於判斷 2026 年的需求是下降還是在 2026 年之後略有下降來說,是一個很重要的問題。
And then, of course, there is our ability to execute, but it all starts with our ability -- with the ability of our customers to get the fabs in order and the episodes in order in due time. So it's a bit of a combination of both, I would argue.
當然,還有我們的執行能力,但這一切都始於我們的能力——始於我們的客戶能夠及時安排好晶圓廠和劇集的製作。所以我認為,這算是兩者的結合吧。
Joe Quatrochi - Analyst
Joe Quatrochi - Analyst
Okay. So I guess just maybe as a follow-up, just can you remind us just how we think about the manufacturing capacity capabilities in terms of just like the number of Low NA EUV tools. I know you've had some targets out there from some Analyst Days previously, but maybe just an update there?
好的。所以我想作為後續問題,您能否提醒我們一下,我們是如何看待低數值孔徑 EUV 設備數量的製造能力的?我知道你們之前在一些分析師日活動中公佈了一些目標,但或許可以更新相關資訊?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
So what we've done, and this is the way we talked about it in the past, we have put in infrastructure such that we can respond, let's say, within a 12-month or a little over that to demand. So that means that what we call the long lead time items, anything that takes a lot longer than, let's say, 12 to 18 months, that is in place. So we have our clean room in place. We have the equipment in place et cetera, et cetera.
所以我們已經採取的措施,也是我們過去討論過的方式,就是建立基礎設施,以便我們能夠在 12 個月或稍長的時間內回應需求。所以這意味著,我們所說的長週期項目,任何需要超過 12 到 18 個月的時間的項目,都已到位。我們的無塵室已經準備就緒。我們已經配備了必要的設備等等。
So now what we're doing based on the stronger demand signals as we've gotten them in the past couple of months, now we're ramping up our capacity.
根據過去幾個月來我們收到的更強勁的需求訊號,我們正在提高產能。
Now you will appreciate you won't move from 44 EUV tools in one year to -- I'm just throwing it out -- 80 tools and the other after, right? So obviously, that's a gradual process. And that's a process that we're doing. So you will see increase our move rate quarter-on-quarter.
現在你應該明白,你不會在一年內從 44 台 EUV 工具增加到——我只是隨便舉個例子——80 台工具,然後再增加一台,對吧?顯然,這是一個循序漸進的過程。這是我們正在進行的過程。因此,你會看到我們的搬家率逐季成長。
So training -- getting the people in, training the people, et cetera, et cetera. And in that way, quarter-on-quarter, you will see an increase in the move rate, and we will do that hand-in-hand with our supply chain. So you will see the move rate increase during 2026. And a likelihood of what we're seeing today is sustainable. You will continue to see that also beyond '26.
所以培訓——招募人員、培訓人員等等。這樣一來,每季都會看到出貨速度加快,而我們將與我們的供應鏈攜手合作,共同實現這一目標。因此,你會看到2026年搬家率上升。我們今天所看到的這種現像很可能是可持續的。即使到了 2026 年以後,你也會繼續看到這種情況。
Joe Quatrochi - Analyst
Joe Quatrochi - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
You're welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Gardiner, Citi.
安德魯·加德納,花旗銀行。
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Christophe, Roger, you've spoken today about the customers' medium-term plans being revised up. I mean we can see that too in their public statements around revenue growth and CapEx for the coming years.
克里斯托夫、羅傑,你們今天談到了客戶的中期計畫上調。我的意思是,我們也可以從他們關於未來幾年營收成長和資本支出的公開聲明中看出這一點。
In particular, from your biggest customer in TSMC, you said CapEx will be significantly higher for the next few years. And I mean some of that's quite clearly reflected in the record order intake that you just reported, but also quite clearly, not all of it.
特別是,您提到您最大的客戶台積電,未來幾年資本支出將大幅增加。我的意思是,你剛才報告的唱片訂單量確實反映出了其中的一些情況,但顯然,並非全部情況都反映了這一點。
And I'm just wondering in terms of the plans you just outlined, Roger, in terms of increasing that move rate over the coming quarters, how much more visibility are the customers providing you in terms of the equipment needs for next year and the year after?
羅傑,我想問的是,就你剛才概述的計劃而言,為了在未來幾個季度提高搬遷速度,客戶在明年和後年的設備需求方面,能向你提供多少更清晰的信息?
I mean, no one wants to be the bottleneck in the kind of growth that we're seeing in this industry, and I presume that goes for you guys as well, and you must be having those conversations with the customers. Can you give us any insight as to how that visibility is improving into next year and thereafter?
我的意思是,沒有人願意成為這個行業目前這種成長的瓶頸,我想這對你們來說也是如此,你們肯定也在和客戶進行這方面的溝通。您能否透露一下,這種可見性在明年及以後會如何改善?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
I think the public commentary of customers on the sustainability of the -- particularly the AI-related demand that they see on advanced logic and on memory, I think they also share that in the conversations with us. And of course, that also translates into indications that they provide to us either for very concrete orders or what we call from demand.
我認為客戶對永續性的公開評論——特別是他們對高階邏輯和記憶體的AI相關需求——我認為他們在與我們的對話中也表達了同樣的觀點。當然,這也轉化為他們向我們提供的指示,無論是針對非常具體的訂單,還是我們所說的來自需求的指示。
So their indication of how they see the demand to develop. I think the order intake in Q4, I think, is strong evidence of that conversation and that it's not just a conversation, but that are actually also putting evidence and money into that. But they're also talking beyond this year about what their expectations are, I would say, in particular for '27.
所以,這反映了他們對發展需求的看法。我認為第四季度的訂單量有力地證明了這種對話的存在,而且這不僅僅是對話,而是他們真正投入了實實在在的證據和資金。但他們也在談論今年之後的期望,特別是對 2027 年的期望。
So our move rate plans that we have also takes that element into consideration. So what they tell us, I think direction is very much in line with what they say publicly. But of course, they also give us a strong indication of how they see their demand develop year-on-year.
因此,我們的搬家費率方案也考慮到了這個因素。所以我覺得他們告訴我們的內容,方向與他們公開的說法非常一致。當然,這些也讓我們強烈感受到他們對自身需求逐年發展的看法。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
And maybe the one thing I add to that, Andrew, you have to be aware that -- so you have seen indeed our customer moving being far more vocal about their capacity planning. I think this has been also the reserves of many, many discussions with their customers, which are also providing.
安德魯,我或許還要補充一點,你必須意識到──你確實已經看到我們的客戶在產能規劃上變得更加積極主動了。我認為這也是他們與客戶進行多次討論後得出的結論,而客戶也對此表示贊同。
I would say, this midterm demand. So what we have seen really in the last three months in alignment between the different parties that on the midterm, as Roger explained, we see basically a strong buildup of demand. And we have got many, many proof of that also in the last few weeks coming out of either logic or DRAM customers.
我認為,這是中期考試的要求。因此,在過去三個月裡,我們看到各黨派在中期選舉問題上達成了一致,正如羅傑解釋的那樣,我們看到需求基本上出現了強勁增長。在過去幾周里,我們也從邏輯電路或DRAM客戶那裡得到了很多很多證據。
So I think it took a bit of while to really get to that point. But we really see that happening very strongly in the last few weeks. And I think this is aligned across a large part of the ecosystem.
所以我覺得花了一段時間才真正達到那個階段。但在過去幾周里,我們確實看到這種情況非常明顯。我認為這與生態系統的大部分領域一致。
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Thanks very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Alexander Duval, Goldman Sachs.
亞歷山大杜瓦爾,高盛。
Alexander Duval - Analyst
Alexander Duval - Analyst
Yes, thank you very much, indeed, for the question. Firstly, on 2026, I wanted to just go back to assumptions for the top end of your sales guidance. I was curious to what extent that would assume that China is meaningfully down?
是的,非常感謝你的提問。首先,關於 2026 年,我想回到你們銷售指導上限的假設。我很好奇,這種說法在多大程度上假設中國經濟出現實質下滑?
And then going back to the discussion about long-term capacity. You've obviously talked about customers being more confident on midterm demand and the longer-term situation. I think in the capacity planning you've done in the past, you talked about 80 to 90 EUV tools.
然後我們再回到關於長期產能的討論。您顯然已經談到客戶對中期需求和長期情況更有信心。我認為在你過去所做的產能規劃中,你提到過 80 到 90 台 EUV 設備。
But if we think very much towards the 2030 time frame, the kind of plans that the customers' customers are talking about would imply something bigger than that. So what kind of lead time would be required for you to push beyond that kind of outcome? And would there be other means through which you could deliver the capacity needed, for example, making your tools more productive by investing in R&D?
但如果我們展望 2030 年,客戶的客戶所談論的計畫就意味著一些比這更大的事情。那麼,您需要多長時間的準備時間才能達到超出這種結果?有其他方法可以提供所需的產能嗎?例如,透過投資研發來提高工具的生產效率?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
So when it comes to the top end of the expectation, when we talk about China being 20% of sales, I would argue that's across the entire range, right? So -- which obviously means that if we're talking about EUR39 billion, you're looking at approximately EUR8 billion of China. So I would say that's probably, our expectation on China probably moves with that.
所以,當談到預期的上限,例如中國佔銷售額的 20% 時,我認為這涵蓋了整個範圍,對吧?所以——這顯然意味著,如果我們談論的是 390 億歐元,那麼大約有 80 億歐元來自中國。所以我覺得,我們對中國的預期可能也會跟著改變。
If you look at what are the key expectations on the upside of that, well, a, as we just said, that means that our customers indeed are able to take our tools that we're able to execute on as we currently plan, and probably also that the -- and probably also that the installed base business is running on all cylinders, particularly on upgrades.
如果你看看這方面的主要預期是什麼,嗯,正如我們剛才所說,這意味著我們的客戶確實能夠使用我們目前計劃執行的工具,而且可能還意味著——而且可能還意味著已安裝基礎業務正在全力運轉,尤其是在升級方面。
Which is not illogical because upgrades obviously are in very high demand right now because it's the easiest, fastest and most effective way for customers to get additional capacity, which in the current market is obviously very, very important to them. So those would be the key elements that I would say that would drive that. And in that model, you could also envisage a China market at 20% of that total sales number.
這並非不合邏輯,因為目前升級需求顯然非常高,因為這是客戶獲得額外容量最簡單、最快捷、最有效的方式,這在當前市場環境下對他們來說顯然非常非常重要。所以,我認為這些就是推動這項進程的關鍵因素。在這種模式下,你還可以想像中國市場佔總銷售額的 20%。
When you talk about the long-term name, let me make a few comments and then Christophe, maybe you can weigh in. First, you should not forget that when we get to the 2030 time frame, obviously, at that stage, yes, we're looking at Low NA, but we're also definitely looking at High-NA.
談到長期名稱,我想先提幾點意見,然後克里斯托夫,也許你可以發表一下看法。首先,你不應該忘記,當我們到達 2030 年這個時間框架時,顯然,在那個階段,是的,我們關注的是低北美,但我們也肯定關注的是高北美。
And the Low NA tools that we would be providing at that point in time would, of course, be Low NA tools with, again, a higher throughput than what we have today.
當然,屆時我們提供的低NA工具,其吞吐量也會比我們今天提供的低NA工具更高。
So back to your question on R&D, absolutely. We will continue to push the road map on our Low NA tools and continue to drive capacity such that per tool, the customers get more productivity than what they get today.
回到你關於研發的問題,答案是肯定的。我們將繼續推進低NA工具的路線圖,並繼續提高產能,以便客戶能夠透過每台工具獲得比現在更高的生產力。
But also, at that stage, we expect a more meaningful number of High-NA tools that would provide significant additional output capacity. And in that combination, I think the numbers that you were just throwing out I think will provide an output capability to customers way ahead of the numbers that we're talking about today.
但同時,在那個階段,我們預計會有更多數量可觀的高數值孔徑工具,這將提供顯著的額外產能。我認為,你剛才提到的那些數字,結合這些數字,將為客戶提供遠超過我們今天所討論的數字的輸出能力。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, I think Roger said it all. I think the way we summarize it is that we have, I would say, the flexibility to react to the development of the market. I think we talked about mid, short term already. I think it's also true in the long term.
是的,我覺得羅傑說得都對。我認為我們可以這樣總結:我們有能力靈活應對市場的發展。我想我們已經討論過中短期計劃了。我認為從長遠來看也是如此。
And yes, Roger is right. The contribution of High NA, the work, we continue to do our productivity. We already planned for that, will give us even additional flexibility.
沒錯,羅傑說得對。高NA的貢獻,這項工作,我們將繼續提高生產力。我們已經為此做好了準備,這將為我們帶來更大的靈活性。
So with the step we have done on our capability on EUV, Deep UV in the last few years, which -- you remember, we did execute despite the fact that maybe the demand was a bit lower at some point. We have created basically the right flexibility to see the market coming.
因此,在過去幾年裡,我們在 EUV 和深紫外光刻技術方面取得了長足的進步——您還記得嗎,儘管在某些時候需求可能略有下降,但我們還是執行了這些技術。我們已經基本上具備了足夠的彈性,能夠預見市場變化。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Thanks very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Krish Sankar, TD Cowan.
Krish Sankar,TD Cowan。
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Krish Sankar - Analyst
So hi, thanks for taking my question. I have two of them. First one, Roger, to reconcile your bookings between EUV and memory. Typically, memory has been 30% of the EUV mix. So it looks like a big jump in the memory orders last quarter was driven by Deep UV. Is that fair? And then on EUV for memory, for 1C node DDR5, are we talking about seven to eight EUV exposures or lower than that? And then I have a follow-up.
您好,感謝您回答我的問題。我有兩個。首先,Roger,請你檢查 EUV 和記憶體之間的預訂情況。通常,記憶體佔 EUV 製程的 30%。看來上個季度記憶體訂單的大幅成長是由深紫外光刻技術推動的。這樣公平嗎?那麼對於用於記憶體的 EUV 光刻,對於 1C 節點的 DDR5,我們說的是七到八次 EUV 曝光,還是更少?然後我還有一個後續問題。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Let me take the first one, and Christophe can take the second one. No, I think the order intake for memory is strong, but not just Deep UV, also EUV. And in all likelihood, if we look at the composition of our sales in 2026, you will see a major memory play in there. So the demand in '26 is far more balanced in terms of Logic versus memory than it was in 2025. So that's what you see -- but this is not just Deep UV, this is definitely also EUV.
第一個我來,第二個克里斯托夫來。不,我認為記憶體的訂單量很強勁,但不僅僅是深紫外光刻,極紫外光刻也同樣強勁。而且很有可能,如果我們觀察 2026 年的銷售組成,你會發現其中會有很大一部分是記憶類遊戲。因此,2026 年邏輯電路與記憶體的需求比 2025 年平衡得多。這就是你所看到的——但這不僅僅是深紫外光,這肯定也包括極紫外光。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, and I think on EUV, I think when it comes to DRAM, I think we are going to benefit both from, of course, the demand for capacity, which we already discussed is very strong this year, mostly beyond that. And we've been talking about the number of EUV layers increasing on DRAM. This has been one of our focus. We have seen that happening in 2025.
是的,我認為在 EUV 方面,就 DRAM 而言,我們當然會受益於產能需求,我們已經討論過今年的產能需求非常強勁,而且這種需求還會持續下去。我們一直在討論DRAM上EUV層數增加的問題。這一直是我們的關注重點之一。我們已經看到這種情況在2025年發生。
We continue to see that happening. I mentioned it in the introduction on 6F-squared but also on 4F-squared, and this is a bit of what I would call the perfect storm because when it comes to EUV as a result, DRAM share most probably will increase over time.
我們不斷看到這種情況發生。我在 6F 平方的引言中提到過,也在 4F 平方的引言中提到過,這有點像我所說的完美風暴,因為就 EUV 而言,DRAM 的份額很可能會隨著時間的推移而增加。
So this is a very good dynamic on DRAM. Which, again, based on all the work we do with our customer discussion we have, we don't see stopping. So there's still some lead way for more EUV layers for more litho intensity on DRAM for sure.
所以這是DRAM上非常好的動態特性。而且,根據我們與客戶的所有溝通交流,我們認為這種情況不會停止。所以,在DRAM上實現更高光刻強度的EUV層數增加還有很大的空間。
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Got it. Got it. And then as a quick follow-up, sorry to get back to this manufacturing capacity. Is it fair to assume your EUV manufacturing capacity is around maybe 70 units? And does that potentially constrain your growth next year?
知道了。知道了。然後,作為後續補充,很抱歉再次談到產能問題。假設貴公司的 EUV 光刻產能約為 70 台,是否合理?這是否會限制您明年的成長?
The reason I'm asking is that is your manufacturing capacity limit causing movement of tools between this year and next year is leading to a wide range of revenue guide for '26.
我問這個問題是因為你們的生產能力限制導致今年和明年工具的轉移,從而導致 2026 年的收入預期出現較大波動。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Krish, as I said, our capacity is very dynamic because you -- we cannot move from 1 point to the other, just like that in one quarter, right? So that's why I said we had 44 units -- revenue units of EUV low-NA last year. You cannot go from one quarter to the other even from one year to the other from 44 to 80. So we will crank it up. Every quarter, you will see us increase move rate, you will see us increase capacity.
Krish,正如我所說,我們的能力是動態的,因為我們不可能在一個季度內就從一個點移動到另一個點,對吧?所以這就是為什麼我說我們去年有 44 個 EUV 低北美收入單位。你不可能從一個季度到另一個季度,甚至不可能從一年到另一年,從 44 歲到 80 歲。所以我們會加大力度。每個季度,您都會看到我們提高搬家速度,您會看到我們提高搬家能力。
And if the demand signals remain as strong as they are, that will continue into 2027 as well. And then I would say 70 would not be the limit that I would certainly be looking at -- I think that is higher.
如果需求訊號依然強勁,那麼這種情況也將持續到 2027 年。而且我認為 70 肯定不是我考慮的極限——我認為應該更高。
Operator
Operator
Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna Financial Group.
Mehdi Hosseini,Susquehanna Financial Group。
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Yes, thanks for taking my question. My first one has to do with just the capacity that Roger, you just highlighted. I want to better understand EUV capacity, and the topic has been around since the 2021 when last time we had the shortages. I wanted to understand whether the key factors. As you ramp the EUV capacity, is that going to impact the booking trend?
是的,謝謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題就與羅傑剛才提到的能力有關。我想更了解 EUV 產能,這個主題從 2021 年上次產能短缺時就一直存在。我想了解關鍵因素是什麼。隨著 EUV 產能的提升,這是否會影響預訂趨勢?
In other words, are your customers actually waiting to have conviction of you adding incremental capacity before they commit to booking or backlog that would be shippable in '27 and beyond? And I have a follow-up.
換句話說,您的客戶是否真的在等待您增加產能的保證,才會承諾預訂或下單,而這些訂單將在 2027 年及以後交付?我還有一個後續問題。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
No. I don't think, Mehdi, that's what is going on. Customers know what we're doing. We share pretty openly with customers how we're looking at our ability to increase. I think customers appreciate that we've built in far more flexibility into our model than what we had before.
不。邁赫迪,我不認為事情是那樣的。客戶知道我們在做什麼。我們會非常坦誠地與客戶分享我們看待自身成長能力的看法。我認為客戶很欣賞我們新模式中融入的更大靈活性,這比我們以前的模式要好得多。
If anything, if customers start to smell that for a certain year, you might be supply constrained, actually, dynamic is the other way around.
如果有什麼變化的話,那就是如果顧客開始覺得某一年供應會受到限制,實際上,動態變化的情況恰恰相反。
They want to make sure that they get their booking in before they are too late, right? So as a matter of fact, I would say, if they believe that the capacity might become a choke point, then they will jump to put in the orders. So I think it's more that than better waiting for definitive confirmation that the capacity is there. But we very openly share with them what our plans are.
他們想確保在為時已晚之前完成預訂,對吧?所以實際上,我認為,如果他們認為產能可能會成為瓶頸,那麼他們就會立即下訂單。所以我認為,等待確切的確認結果,證明產能足夠,才是更好的選擇。但我們會非常坦誠地與他們分享我們的計劃。
And again, they appreciate the flexibility that we've built in and the significant reduction of response time that we have created as a result of creating the long lead time items.
他們再次讚賞我們所建立的靈活性,以及由於創建了交貨週期長的產品而顯著縮短的響應時間。
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Okay. Great. And I want to go back to the comments in the transcript that was posted with the earnings report. There was a comment that some of the bookings will be shippable in '27. So the question that I have is, what would it take for you to hit the high end of revenue guide for this year?
好的。偉大的。我想回到財報發佈時附帶的文字記錄中的評論部分。有人評論說,部分預訂的商品將在 2027 年發貨。所以我的問題是,要達到今年營收預期上限,需要做些什麼?
Is that China? I'm assuming that China backlog has a shorter lifetime. And to that extent, is that the China that is going to impact your ability to hit the high end of your revenue guide range?
那是中國嗎?我假設中國的積壓訂單處理時間較短。那麼,中國市場是否會影響您實現營收目標上限的能力呢?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
I think I said it. I think first and foremost, it's the readiness of our customers to take tools. I think that is number one. So their ability to complete fab construction, put the pedestals and take our tools. So I think that's constraint number one.
我想我說過。我認為最重要的是我們的客戶是否願意接受這些工具。我認為那是最重要的一點。所以他們有能力完成工廠建設,安裝基座並拿走我們的工具。所以我認為這是第一個限制因素。
Constraint number two, our ability to execute. So I just talked about what to increase the ramp. We're comfortable with that. But of course, everyone needs to sing from the same song sheet, not just us, but also the supply chain. So we got to make sure that everyone is tuned into the same ramp that we have in play.
第二個限制因素是我們的執行能力。所以我剛才談到如何增加坡度。我們對此感到滿意。當然,每個人都需要朝著同一個方向努力,不僅是我們,還有供應鏈上的每個人。所以我們必須確保每個人都專注於我們正在實施的同一個策略。
So that would be the second one. So that would be more of a supply factor. On the demand side, I think it's the demand for upgrades, and I gave some color on that earlier on. And as I mentioned on China, I think in our guidance, China is 20% of revenue. So China would breathe along with the corridor that we have given.
所以那是第二個。所以這更多的是一個供應因素。就需求方面而言,我認為是升級換代的需求,我之前已經對此進行了一些闡述。正如我之前提到的中國市場,我認為根據我們的預期,中國市場佔收入的 20%。這樣,中國就能在我們提供的這條通道中自由呼吸。
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
謝謝。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
You're welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
Didier Scemama, Bank of America.
Didier Scemama,美國銀行。
Didier Scemama - Analyst
Didier Scemama - Analyst
Thank you. Good afternoon, gentlemen. I'm just asking about 4F-squared DRAM. So I think Christophe, you mentioned in the press release that you see in your interaction with your own customers that, in fact, DUV and EUV layer count could go up with 4F-squared. I'm just wondering, obviously, there is a school of thought in the market that 4F-squared would lead to a cliff in EUV demand from DRAM customers wherever we see 4 F-squared introduction, say, 2028.
謝謝。下午好,先生們。我只是在問關於 4F² DRAM 的問題。所以我認為克里斯托夫,你在新聞稿中提到,你在與客戶的互動中發現,實際上,DUV 和 EUV 層數可能會隨著 4F 平方的增加而增加。我只是在想,顯然市場上有一種觀點認為,4F² 技術一旦推出,例如在 2028 年,就會導致 DRAM 客戶對 EUV 的需求斷崖式下跌。
So is that a risk that you think is significantly diminishing because obviously, the reuse of tool capacity? Or do you think that now as the new DDR account goes up and there is also a view that now wafer capacity in DRAM is going to have to expand dramatically over the course of the next five years because of AGI and more complex LLMs, that effectively this risk of a cliff and significant reuse of EUV tools is effectively really diminishing dramatically? I've got a follow-up as well.
所以,您認為這種風險是否因為工具產能的重複使用而顯著降低?或者您是否認為,隨著新的DDR帳戶增加,並且由於AGI和更複雜的LLM,DRAM晶圓產能將在未來五年內大幅擴張,那麼這種斷崖式下跌和EUV工具大量重複使用的風險實際上正在大幅降低?我還有一個後續問題。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I try to answer all the points. So I think the first thing to say is, if you look at 4 F-squared, the structure require more advanced litho mass. So that's the first thing. So you get basically to look at a more complex structure.
是的,我盡量回答所有問題。所以我認為首先要說的是,如果你觀察 4 F 平方,你會發現該結構需要更先進的岩石質量。這是第一點。所以你基本上可以看到一個更複雜的結構。
And that structure is going to require more lithography. This is why we mentioned that both, in fact, immersion and EUV will go up. Now you talk about a cliff a lot. Customers don't like cliff. Cliff are very bad for operation.
而這種結構需要更多的光刻技術。這就是為什麼我們提到,實際上浸沒式微影和極紫外光刻的價格都會上漲。你現在經常提到懸崖。顧客不喜歡懸崖。懸崖對手術非常不利。
What customers like is optimize technology over several nodes. And therefore, when we talk about EUV insertion with our customer, of course, the transition to 4F-squared is taken into account because no one wants to buy a lot of tools and be stuck with them. So cliff is never good for a customer when it comes to operation.
客戶喜歡的是在多個節點上優化技術。因此,當我們與客戶討論 EUV 光刻技術時,當然會考慮到向 4F 平方的過渡,因為沒有人願意購買大量工具並被它們束縛。所以,就營運而言,懸崖對客戶來說從來都不是好事。
And what you see happening with DRAM is that EUV basically has become a very handy tool to simplify processes, to simplify the number of steps, to simplify cycle time -- to reduce cycle time, sorry, and even to bring more capacity because if you have less mask, if you have less multi-patterning, you add up basically with more space in your fab.
在 DRAM 領域,EUV 基本上已經成為一種非常方便的工具,可以簡化製程、減少步驟、縮短週期時間,甚至可以提高產能,因為如果掩模減少、多重曝光減少,基本上就可以在晶圓廠中騰出更多空間。
So EUV, I will say that the more DRAM customers use it, the more they like it because they get benefit on all those counts. And again, they want to include the cliff. So when we made the statement in our release, basically, it's really out of many, many discussions with customers.
所以,EUV,我想說,DRAM 用戶使用得越多,他們就越喜歡它,因為他們在所有這些方面都受益。他們再次表示,他們想把懸崖也考慮進去。所以,我們在新聞稿中發表的聲明,基本上就是與客戶進行多次討論的結果。
And I think that -- well, I don't know if the risk is going down. We never saw that the risk was pretty high, but I think we are very, very confident that, again, litho intensity will grow with 4F-squared, both on Deep UV and EUV and as I said before, we see EUV number of players continuing to grow both before and after this transition.
而且我認為——嗯,我不知道風險是否正在下降。我們從未認為風險很高,但我認為我們非常有信心,隨著 4F 平方的增加,光刻強度將會再次增長,無論是在深紫外光刻還是極紫外光刻。正如我之前所說,我們看到極紫外光刻的參與者數量在這次轉變之前和之後都會繼續增長。
And I think that well I don't know if the risk is going down. We never thought that the risk was pretty high, but I think we're very confident that again lethal intensity will grow with 42 both on DPV and EUV, and as I said before, we see EUV a number of layers continuing to grow both before and after this transition.
我覺得,嗯,我不知道風險是否正在下降。我們從未認為風險很高,但我認為我們非常有信心,隨著 DPV 和 EUV 的層數增加,致命強度將再次增加,正如我之前所說,我們看到 EUV 的層數在這種轉變之前和之後都會繼續增加。
Didier Scemama - Analyst
Didier Scemama - Analyst
Very clear. So my follow-up is on the gross margin side. So I think perhaps 1 element of disappointments in the guide is the gross margin. And I think you mentioned mix of the new video NA, obviously, emerging probably going to decline because of China and then also the upgrades business and the sort of milestone payments that might not be as strong in '26.
非常清楚。所以我的後續問題是關於毛利率方面的。所以我覺得這份指南令人失望的地方之一可能是毛利率。我認為你提到了北美新視訊業務的混合,顯然,由於中國市場的影響,新興業務可能會下滑,此外還有升級業務和里程碑付款等業務,這些業務在 2026 年可能不會那麼強勁。
I'm just trying -- if you look into '27, do you think that your mix of an EUV will sort of revert back to what you had said before, which is the majority will be 3800E? Or is there any reason why three-nanometre capacity expansion will continue to grow into '27? I guess the emergent question on China is anyone's guess. But if you want to have this into an answer, I'm very happy to hear it.
我只是想問——如果你研究一下 '27',你認為你的 EUV 混合方案會不會又回到你之前說的那種情況,也就是大部分會是 3800E?或者說,有什麼理由說明三奈米製程的產能擴張會持續到 2027 年呢?關於中國,目前出現的問題恐怕誰也說不準。但如果你想把這個變成一個答案,我非常樂意聽聽。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Didier, on the mix for EUV, customers like our 3800 so much that they took as much as they could get in terms of 3800 rather than 3600 in '25. But of course, we had a number of 3600s that's still needed to be completed that we had all the parts for.
Didier 談到 EUV 的混合方案時說,客戶非常喜歡我們的 3800,以至於他們在 2025 年盡可能多地採購 3800 而不是 3600。當然,我們還有一些3600型機器需要完成組裝,而我們已經有了所有需要的零件。
And those will be shipped in all likelihood in '26. So the '27, that mix in terms of EUV should be substantially better. And also, at that point in time, we're probably looking at the next generation.
這些貨物很可能在 2026 年發貨。所以,27 年的這款產品,在 EUV 的表現應該會好很多。而且,到那時,我們可能就要迎來下一代了。
So the EUV mix by '27 should be better than '26. And you're right, that is an important element because if you look at how we plan to and how we plan towards the 56% to 60% gross margin in 2030.
因此,2027 年的 EUV 混合技術應該比 2026 年更好。你說得對,這是一個重要的因素,因為如果你看看我們是如何計劃並朝著 2030 年 56% 到 60% 的毛利率目標邁進的。
It's pretty clear that new generations of Low NA EUV are critical in that regard. So the EUV mix in '27 will be better than it is in '26. Another mix effect that is in there indeed is on the Deep UV side.
很明顯,新一代低數值孔徑 EUV 微影機在這方面至關重要。所以 2027 年的 EUV 混合效果會比 2026 年更好。另一個混合效果確實存在於深紫外光方面。
So quite a bit more dry rather than immersion. I would say, in all likelihood that it's less a matter of demand, but it's a plus, right? So on the supply side, we are constrained in terms of immersion for 2026. So it's in that result that's -- with higher dry business and restrictions on the immersion side, that gives you a less favourable Deep UV mix that goes into the equation.
所以,與其說是浸入式,不如說是比較偏向乾式。我認為,這很可能不是需求的問題,而是優勢,對吧?因此,在供應方面,我們2026年的沉浸式教學受到限制。所以,正是由於乾式業務量增加以及浸沒式方面的限制,才導致了深紫外線混合效果不佳,而這種效果會影響到最終結果。
And then an important swing factor because you still have a 2% bandwidth in the gross margin. An important element of the swing factor will be installed base and will be upgrade business. That gives you the print part, Didier.
然後還有一個重要的波動因素,因為毛利率中仍然有 2% 的波動空間。影響市場波動的重要因素是已安裝用戶基數和升級業務。迪迪埃,這樣你就得到印刷部分了。
Didier Scemama - Analyst
Didier Scemama - Analyst
No, that's great. By the way, do you want to say what you think will be a rev rec on High NA in '26? Rev rec on High NA. The amount of High NA units.
不,那太好了。順便問一下,你覺得2026年High NA的修訂版會是什麼樣子?高NA上的Rev rec。高NA單位的數量。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Okay, yeah, probably a bit more than we had this year, but I don't want to go into too much detail there.
好吧,是的,可能比我們今年的情況要好一些,但我不想過多贅述。
Didier Scemama - Analyst
Didier Scemama - Analyst
Okay, fair enough, thank you.
好的,沒問題,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Francois Bouvignies, UBS.
瑞銀集團的弗朗索瓦·布維尼。
Francois Xavier, Bouvignies - Analyst
Francois Xavier, Bouvignies - Analyst
Thanks a lot. I have one for Christophe and one for Roger. I mean, the first one maybe is for Christophe on the High NA. I just wanted to get in more details in here. I mean we see the industry moving into a rush in terms of capacity both at TSMC and advanced logic, I should say, and the memory overall. And I was wondering if you have a rush in this capacity, could that delay the High NA adoption?
多謝。我為克里斯托夫準備了一本,並為羅傑準備了一本。我的意思是,第一個可能是給北美高地上的克里斯托夫的。我只是想在這裡補充更多細節。我的意思是,我們看到整個產業都在加速產能擴張,無論是台積電還是先進邏輯晶片,以及整個記憶體領域。我想知道,如果您在這方面比較著急,會不會延緩 High NA 的採用?
Do you see some risk happening of delay in addition because the industry simply too easy to add capacity that they don't want to add another risk in terms of transition? So I was just wondering if it is something that's possible?
您是否認為,由於該行業擴容過於容易,他們不願在轉型方面增加其他風險,因此可能會出現延誤的風險?所以我想知道這是否有可能?
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, I think from day one, I've been talking about three phases of High NA adoption with R&D qualification for high volume manufacturing, then insertion high volume manufacturing was limited amount of layer and then the whole thing.
嗯,我認為從一開始,我就一直在談論高數值孔徑 (NA) 技術的三個應用階段:首先是研發認證,然後是批量生產;接著是插入式批量生產,層數有限;然後是整個過程。
And I would say that plan always provide basically the time to have a real qualification. So the acceleration you see today on capacity, of course, is on existing nodes that are ramping with nontechnology, and those nodes will call for the use of the existing product we ship today.
而且我認為,該計劃基本上總是能提供足夠的時間讓你獲得真正的資格。所以,你今天看到的產能加速,當然是指現有節點利用非技術手段提高產能,而這些節點需要使用我們今天出貨的現有產品。
So that's one, that's Deep UV, that's metrology inspection as we know it today. The preparation of High NA for the next node is such that it does leave the time if customers want to use it to insert it properly.
所以,這就是其中之一,這就是深紫外線檢測,這就是我們今天所知的計量檢測。為下一個節點準備高 NA 時,如果客戶想要使用它,請留出時間正確插入。
So sometimes, maybe some of you could believe that one, two, three, phases is a bit long, but this is on the other end, the way to secure the insertion on the node because once the decision is made to use it on a node, they really want to use it. They prepare a mask for it. They qualify the whole process with it.
所以有時候,你們中的一些人可能會覺得一、二、三階段有點長,但另一方面,這是確保在節點上插入的方法,因為一旦決定在節點上使用它,他們就真的想使用它。他們為此準備了一個面具。他們以此來評判整個過程。
So it's very difficult to change your mind and say, hey, I'm going to go back to the whole stuff." So I think customers try to do those things in such a way that they are not too sensitive to either a major acceleration or slowdown of their capacity. So it's a long answer to say, no, basically. So we don't see a risk there.
所以,要改變主意說「嘿,我要重新開始做所有那些事」是非常困難的。所以我認為客戶會盡量以某種方式處理這些事情,讓他們對產能的大幅加速或減速不太敏感。所以,簡單來說,答案是:不。所以我們認為這方面不存在風險。
Francois Xavier, Bouvignies - Analyst
Francois Xavier, Bouvignies - Analyst
Perfect. And maybe, Roger, your question, my question is for '26. I mean, if China is 20% of revenues, if we take the midpoint, it would imply China is down about 20%, 25% year-on-year, which is mainly in Deep UV. And you guided Deep UV flat for '26, which means non-China Deep UV routes to go up by 40% for zero year-on-year kind of prove to get the flat Deep UV.
完美的。羅傑,也許你的問題,我的問題是針對 2026 年的。我的意思是,如果中國市場佔總收入的 20%,取中間值,那就意味著中國市場同比下降了約 20% 到 25%,這主要體現在深紫外光業務上。而你預測 2026 年深紫外線輻射價格將持平,這意味著非中國深紫外線輻射路線將上漲 40%,同比為零,這似乎證明了深紫外線輻射價格持平的預期。
And I remember last year, I guess it's kind of a Deja vu, where last year, you said there is a strong correlation between the non-China Deep UV and EUV growth. But when I look at '25, your non-China Deep UV was actually not growing much compared to EUV.
我還記得去年,我想這有點像似曾相識的感覺,去年你說過,非中國深紫外光和極紫外光的增長之間存在很強的相關性。但當我查看 2025 年的數據時,發現非中國地區的深紫外光業務與極紫外光業務相比,實際成長並不多。
You had a big disconnect between the two. So I was wondering if there was a catch-up somehow from '25 to '26? So just trying to understand why this year, you would see this strong growth happening and we didn't see that in '25?
你們兩人之間存在著很大的隔閡。所以我想知道,從 2025 年到 2026 年之間是否有某種形式的補課?所以,我只是想弄清楚為什麼今年會出現這種強勁的成長,而我們在2025年卻沒有看到這種情況?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Francois, that's a really good question. And indeed, this is what we observed. So '24 was strong. Also on the non-China business, '24 was pretty strong also in the dry business for customers across the board. '25 disappointed a bit.
弗朗索瓦,你問得真好。而這的確是我們所觀察到的。所以24年表現強勁。此外,在非中國市場,2024年乾貨業務也表現強勁,顧客遍佈各地。 2025年則略顯令人失望。
If we look at '26, we see the market come back with our leading customers. Frankly, I think many of our customers are doing what we do, which is you put in the long lead time items, which, in our case, is more the EUV stuff, and you take a bit more flexibility in your shorter lead time items, which is the Deep UV business. I think that's what they've done for a significant part of the year. We actually could see the non-China Deep UV business come back in the last months of the year. And we frankly see that trajectory continue into 2026.
如果我們回顧 2026 年,就會發現市場隨著我們主要客戶的回歸而復甦。坦白說,我認為我們很多客戶都在做和我們一樣的事情,那就是把交貨週期長的項目(就我們而言,主要是 EUV 相關產品)放在前面,然後在交貨週期短的項目(也就是深紫外光刻業務)上採取更靈活的策略。我認為他們今年大部分時間都是這麼做的。我們或許可以看到,在今年最後幾個月,非中國地區的深紫外光業務將會復甦。坦白說,我們認為這種趨勢會持續到 2026 年。
So you're right. And that we found the '25 non-China Deep UV business disappoint. That is clearly the case. But we do see a reversal of that trend in the last months of the year and see that reversal will continue into 2026.
你說得對。我們發現 2025 年非中國深紫外線業務令人失望。情況顯然如此。但我們確實看到,在今年最後幾個月裡,這種趨勢發生了逆轉,而且這種逆轉將持續到 2026 年。
Francois Xavier, Bouvignies - Analyst
Francois Xavier, Bouvignies - Analyst
Great, thank you.
太好了,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Chris Kaso, Wolf Research.
克里斯卡索,狼研究公司。
Chris Caso - Analyst
Chris Caso - Analyst
Yes, thank you. Good morning. My question is with regard to the expected timing of deliveries within the backlog. And you mentioned a few things in your earlier comments, including customers recognizing that, that capacity may be tight, availability of customer clean room space.
是的,謝謝。早安.我的問題是關於積壓訂單的預計交貨時間。您在先前的評論中提到了一些事情,包括客戶意識到產能可能緊張,以及客戶無塵室空間的可用性。
I'm not sure you wish to quantify how much of the backlog is expected to ship in '26. But would you say that the timing of those expected deliveries is stretching out as compared to what's happened over the past few quarters?
我不確定你是否想量化預計在 2026 年交付的積壓訂單中有多少。但您認為與過去幾季相比,這些預期交付的時間是否正在延長?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Our expectation is, Chris, that the second half will be stronger than the first half, but I would say that's a function of what I just said, which is the availability of fab space of our customers; and b, our continuous quarter-on-quarter ramp of a move rate.
克里斯,我們預計下半年業績會比上半年更好,但我認為這取決於我剛才所說的兩點:一是我們客戶的晶圓廠空間的可用性;二是我們每季持續提高產能利用率。
So as a result of that, we expected to -- for the second half, to be stronger than the first half of this year. That's the way we currently model our shipments in discussion with the customers. But clearly, quite a bit of the order intake that we had in Q4. And clearly, part of the backlog is for '27.
因此,我們預計今年下半年的業績將比上半年更好。這是我們目前與客戶討論後確定的出貨模式。但很明顯,我們在第四季獲得的訂單量相當大。顯然,部分積壓的工作是針對 2027 年的。
That is pretty clear. And it is '27, right? So the majority -- the lion's share of the orders that came in Q4, some of it is '26, but the lion's share is '27.
這一點很清楚。現在是 27 年,對吧?所以,第四季的大部分訂單——絕大部分的訂單——雖然有些是 2026 年的,但絕大部分是 2027 年。
Chris Caso - Analyst
Chris Caso - Analyst
Thank you. My follow-up question is with regard to gross margins, and you spoke about that a bit, but perhaps you could clarify what are the headwinds and tailwinds with respect to gross margin this year. I presume that China is one factor. But what are the factors that caused you being on the upper end or lower end of gross margins as you go through the year?
謝謝。我的後續問題是關於毛利率的,您之前也談到了一些,但或許您可以澄清一下今年毛利率方面有哪些不利因素和有利因素。我認為中國是其中一個因素。但是是什麼因素導致您在一年中的毛利率處於較高或較低水平?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
I wouldn't say it's China per se. I would say it's immersion, right? So immersion tool is -- immersion is a significant contributor to the gross margin. As I mentioned before, we do expect the immersion sales this year to be below 2025, which is not the result of demand, but it's a result of supply constraints on the immersion side. So that is a bit of a drag.
我不會說那就是中國本身。我覺得這就是沉浸感吧?所以沉浸式工具-沉浸式體驗是毛利率的重要貢獻者。正如我之前提到的,我們預計今年的沉浸式產品銷售將低於 2025 年的水平,這不是需求不足造成的,而是沉浸式產品供應受限造成的。這有點令人沮喪。
Then you see quite a bit of dry sales. As we said, we also expect the dry sales, which was fairly low in 2025. And we already saw that reverse itself in the last months of the year, and we see that reversal will continue into this year. But dry tools come with lower gross margins. So that's a drag on the gross margin.
然後你會看到很多乾貨銷售。正如我們所說,我們也預期乾貨銷量會下降,而2025年的乾貨銷量相當低。我們已經看到這種情況在今年最後幾個月發生了逆轉,我們認為這種逆轉將在今年繼續下去。但乾式工具的毛利率較低。所以這會拖累毛利率。
On the EUV side, there is a bit of a mix effect because we have in the year that we didn't have that much in 2025. So -- and then if we have a bit more high NA, then, of course, that also comes with a slightly depressing effect on the gross margin. So that's all the negatives.
在 EUV 方面,情況有點複雜,因為我們在 2025 年並沒有那麼多 EUV 設備。所以——如果我們的NA值稍微高一些,那麼,當然,這也會對毛利率產生輕微的抑製作用。以上就是所有缺點。
In terms of all the positives, I would say, higher EUV numbers, right? So we're clearly looking at a significant step-up in the number of EUV tools this year. And that is margin accretive. So that's on the positive side. And as I mentioned, the big swing factor, as I look at it today is on installed base.
就所有積極因素而言,我認為是更高的 EUV 數值,對吧?因此,我們顯然可以看到今年 EUV 工具的數量將大幅增加。而且這還能增加利潤。這是正面的一面。正如我之前提到的,我認為今天最大的影響因素是用戶基數。
And to the extent that the installed base will manifest itself in a positive way, high demand for upgrades, which at least theoretically, you could assume to be the case this year with all the appetite for capacity additions that our customers have, that should be helpful on the gross margin. So those are all the puts and takes, as I could see, it's for the gross margin this year, Chris.
如果已安裝的設備數量能夠以積極的方式體現出來,例如對升級的高需求(至少從理論上講,鑑於我們的客戶對新增產能的強烈需求,今年的情況可能會如此),那麼這將對毛利率有所幫助。所以,正如我所看到的,這就是今年所有的投入和產出,克里斯,這關係到今年的毛利率。
Chris Caso - Analyst
Chris Caso - Analyst
Helpful, thank you.
很有幫助,謝謝。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
You're welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
Tammy Qiu, Berenberg.
Tammy Qiu,貝倫貝格。
Tammy Qiu - Analyst
Tammy Qiu - Analyst
Hi, thank you for taking my question. So the first one is on Logic road map. So over the next few years, we do have A16, A14, A14C and A10. Can you confirm that for every single generation, are we still going to have EUV insertion of a couple of layers? Or some of the customers are really trying to minimize the incremental EUV?
您好,感謝您回答我的問題。所以第一個已經在 Logic 的路線圖上了。所以在接下來的幾年裡,我們將推出 A16、A14、A14C 和 A10。能確認一下,每一代產品是否仍需要進行幾層的EUV光刻嗎?或者有些客戶真的想盡量減少增量式 EUV 曝光?
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, so let me try to answer that. So I think if you look at the midterm. So we talked about two-nanometre. Indeed, we're going to go to A16, which is very similar to two-nanometre, to be honest. This is not a big difference.
那我就試著回答這個問題吧。所以我覺得,如果你看看期中考。所以我們討論了兩奈米。說實話,我們最終會採用 A16 工藝,它與 2 奈米製程非常接近。這差別不大。
I will skip that. We see them basically EUV layers increasing again at A14. As we discussed in the past, most probably 10% to 20%. We see that being even more true for A10, where the structure change could call for even more EUV layers. So that's a bit the view we have all the way to A10.
我會跳過那一步。我們看到它們基本上在 A14 處再次增加了 EUV 層數。正如我們之前討論過的,很可能是 10% 到 20%。我們看到,對於 A10 來說,這種情況更加明顯,因為結構變化可能需要更多的 EUV 層。這就是我們一路看到A10公路的大致景色。
In the discussion with our foundry customer, again, there's a lot of focus on that because this is key in enabling their future tiny. So that's a bit where we -- what we see today on the foundries.
在與代工廠客戶的討論中,我們再次非常關注這一點,因為這對於實現他們未來的微型化至關重要。所以,這就是我們今天在鑄造廠看到的一些情況。
Tammy Qiu - Analyst
Tammy Qiu - Analyst
Okay, thank you. And I have a follow-up also capacity issue. So I remember that back in 2021, you were very clear about you will do 90 EUV tools and that is the capacity we need. Then of course, the unfortunate 2022 happens. So we took a pause on that.
好的,謝謝。我還有一個後續的容量問題。所以我記得在 2021 年,你非常明確地表示你會生產 90 台 EUV 設備,而這正是我們需要的產能。然後,不幸的是,2022年發生了。所以我們暫停了這項工作。
And is something like today, your capacity addition plan has been more cautious than you were previously? Is there is any reason for that or just basically after 2022, it's better to take a cautious approach from a capacity perspective?
而像今天這種情況,你們的擴容計畫是否比以前更謹慎了?這樣做有什麼原因嗎?還是說從產能角度來看,2022 年後最好採取謹慎的態度?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
I think I tried to explain, but I guess I didn't completely succeed in that. So what I said is what we did in the earlier years of this decade is to put in what we call the long lead time items, which means that anything that takes more than, let's say, 12 to 18 months to get done, we did. Right? So we build additional factory. We put in equipment, et cetera, et cetera.
我覺得我嘗試解釋過了,但似乎並沒有完全解釋清楚。所以我的意思是,在本世紀初,我們所做的就是投入所謂的“長週期項目”,這意味著任何需要超過 12 到 18 個月才能完成的項目,我們都投入了進去。正確的?所以我們又蓋了一座工廠。我們投入了設備等等。
So we build clean rolls. So all of the things that the time, we did. So that's good news. So that gives you more flexibility.
所以我們生產乾淨的捲材。所以,那段時間我們所做的所有事情。這是個好消息。這樣一來,你就有了更大的彈性。
But as I mentioned before, you cannot from one year to the other, move from a move rate, an annual move rate of 44 to 80 in one year time, simply doesn't work because you need to take in people, you need to hire people, you need to train those people, and you cannot double that in one year's time. That needs to be a gradual approach.
但正如我之前提到的,你不能一年之內就把搬遷率從每年 44 人提高到 80 人,這根本行不通,因為你需要接收新員工,你需要雇用新員工,你需要培訓新員工,而你不可能在一年內把這些都翻一番。這需要一個循序漸進的方法。
So this is the process that we're in right now because we also took a decision back in 2022, 2023, we're not going to put in people for an output of 90 because that would make no sense. They would have nothing to do, and it would be very, very costly.
所以這就是我們目前所處的過程,因為我們在 2022 年、2023 年也做出了一個決定,我們不會為了 90 的產量而投入人力,因為那樣毫無意義。他們會無所事事,而且代價會非常非常高昂。
So we're gradually moving our move rate up. So does our supply chain, same story there. They are also gradually quarter-on-quarter moving up their move rate and, in that way, we will very meaningfully increase our capacity over what we had in last year. So that's what we're doing.
所以我們正在逐步提高搬家速度。我們的供應鏈也是如此,情況也是如此。他們的搬家速度也逐季逐步提高,這樣一來,我們的搬家能力將比去年大幅提升。所以我們正在這樣做。
So we have the structural big investments to get to 90, and now we're gradually moving our move rate up in order to move our integral capacity to cater to the demand. And we think that our increase in capacity goes nicely hand-in-hand with the completion of fabs by our customers, such that we will not be the limiting factor in them being able to increase their capacity.
因此,我們進行了結構性的大規模投資,以達到90的目標,現在我們正在逐步提高搬遷速度,以便提高我們的整體產能,以滿足需求。我們認為,我們產能的提升與客戶晶圓廠的建成完美契合,因此我們不會成為他們提升產能的限制因素。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, maybe to add to that to second Roger on that. So I think what we said, back to 2026. So we said that the major factor, in fact, on tool delivery would be the execution of our customer because you have to realize, a lot of the decisions have been done in the last few months.
是的,也許可以補充一下,我同意羅傑的觀點。所以我覺得我們之前說的,回到2026年。因此我們說,實際上影響工具交付的主要因素是客戶的執行情況,因為您必須意識到,許多決定都是在過去幾個月中做出的。
And this also means that they are extremely active in putting capacity in place, et cetera, et cetera. And in 2026, as Roger said, we can nicely follow basically right now their whole ambition, which is good.
這也意味著他們在能力建構等方面非常積極。正如羅傑所說,到 2026 年,我們基本上可以很好地實現他們的整個目標,這很好。
When it comes to beyond 2026, as you know, the lead time on our EUV machine is at least 12 months, which means that as we speak, we are capable to have that discussion with our customer looking at next year, basically.
至於 2026 年以後的計劃,如您所知,我們的 EUV 機器的交付週期至少為 12 個月,這意味著我們現在有能力與客戶討論明年的相關事宜。
And as we do that, we can adjust basically our planning exactly in the way Roger mentioned it. But so far, if we look at the short, midterm, we are capable to nicely follow basically what our customers are asking for.
這樣一來,我們基本上就可以按照羅傑所說的方式調整我們的計畫了。但就目前而言,如果我們著眼於短期和中期,我們基本上能夠很好地滿足客戶的要求。
So I think I said a bit some concerns that we may be the bottleneck is before a customer, this is not the case, certainly not this year. And again, for next year, we have plenty of time to continue to follow basically their demand.
所以我想我之前說過,我們可能擔心瓶頸會出現在客戶那裡,但事實並非如此,至少今年不是這樣。明年,我們還有足夠的時間繼續基本滿足他們的需求。
So, I just want to make that clear. So, what Roger described is the process and the flexibility we have thanks to the investment we have made on our indeed 90 capabilities for EUV, 600 for Deep UV to follow basically very carefully what our customers are going to need in the next few quarters.
所以,我只想把這一點說清楚。所以,羅傑所描述的流程和靈活性,得益於我們對 EUV 90 和 Deep UV 600 能力的投資,我們基本上可以非常仔細地追蹤客戶在未來幾季的需求。
Jim Kavanagh - VP Investor Relations - Worldwide
Jim Kavanagh - VP Investor Relations - Worldwide
Okay. Unfortunately, we have run out of time. But if you were unable to get through on this call and set of questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question.
好的。很遺憾,我們時間不夠了。但如果您未能透過本次電話會議提出問題,請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部門諮詢您的問題。
So now on behalf of ASML, I would like to thank you for joining the call with us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would very much appreciate it. Thank you.
現在,我謹代表ASML,感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。接線員,如果您能正式結束通話,我將非常感激。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
2025 fourth quarter and full year financial results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
2025年第四季及全年財務業績電話會議。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。