艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

ASML 投資者關係副總裁在電話會議上介紹了執行長和財務官,討論了公司 2025 年第一季度的強勁業績。隨著 EUV 技術的進步,公司預計收入和毛利率將有所增長。

本文討論了與關稅和不確定性相關的挑戰,以及半導體市場的收入成長潛力。此次電話會議也討論了客戶挑戰、技術採用階段以及人工智慧需求的影響。該公司強調盡量減少關稅影響和地理多樣化的重要性。

電話會議最後討論了訂單波動、向單一 EUV 光刻的過渡以及公司的未來預測。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2025 first quarter financial results conference call on April 16, 2025. (Operator instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    您好,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加2025年4月16日ASML 2025年第一季財務業績電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Jim Kavanagh. Please go ahead.

    現在我想將電話會議交給吉姆·卡瓦納先生。請繼續。

  • Jim Kavanagh - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Jim Kavanagh - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Jim Kavanagh, Vice President of investor relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet and our CFO Roger Dassen.

    謝謝您,接線生。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Jim Kavanagh。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ASML 的執行長 Christophe Fouquet 和我們的財務長 Roger Dassen。

  • The subject of today's call is ASML's 2025 first quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the internet at www.asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

    今天電話會議的主題是ASML 2025年第一季業績。此次通話時間為 60 分鐘,問題將依照收到的順序進行解答。此次電話會議也將透過網路在 www.asml.com 上進行現場直播。管理層開場白的記錄和電話會議的重播將在本次電話會議結束後不久在我們的網站上提供。

  • Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities law. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at www.asml.com, and in ASML's annual report on Form 20F and other documents as filed to Security and Exchange Commission.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒聽眾,管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。有關風險因素的討論,我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和我們網站 www.asml.com 上的簡報中包含的安全港聲明,以及 ASML 提交給美國證券交易委員會的 20F 表年度報告和其他文件中包含的安全港聲明。

  • With that, I would like to turn the call over to Christophe Fouquet for a brief introduction.

    接下來,我想將電話轉給 Christophe Fouquet 進行簡短介紹。

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Thank you, Jim. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter of 2025 results conference call. Before we begin our Q&A session, OJ and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the first quarter results, as well as provide some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business. OJ?

    謝謝你,吉姆。歡迎大家,感謝您參加我們 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。在我們開始問答環節之前,OJ 和我想對第一季的業績進行概述和評論,並對當前的商業環境和我們未來的業務提供一些額外的評論。橙汁?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Thank you, Christophe, and welcome everyone. Let me start with our first quarter accomplishments. In the first quarter 2025, total net sales were EUR7.7 billion in line with our guidance. Net system sales were at EUR5.7 billion, which includes EUR3.2 billion from EUV sales and EUR2.5 billion from non-EUV sales. Net system sales were driven by logic at 58% and the remaining 42% coming from memory.

    謝謝你,克里斯托夫,歡迎大家。讓我先介紹一下我們第一季的成就。2025 年第一季度,總淨銷售額為 77 億歐元,符合我們的預期。淨系統銷售額為 57 億歐元,其中包括 32 億歐元來自 EUV 銷售額和 25 億歐元來自非 EUV 銷售額。淨系統銷售額的 58% 由邏輯驅​​動,其餘 42% 由記憶體驅動。

  • Install base management sales for the quarter came in at EUR2 billion. Gross margin for the quarter was above guidance at 54%, driven by achieving customer productivity milestones on already installed UV systems, as well as a favorable UV product mix and a rich configuration resulting in higher ASDs.

    本季安裝基礎管理銷售額達 20 億歐元。本季毛利率高於預期,達到 54%,這得益於已安裝的紫外線系統實現了客戶生產力里程碑,以及有利的紫外線產品組合和豐富的配置帶來了更高的 ASD。

  • Operating expenses were in line with guidance, with R&D expenses at EUR1.161 billion and FGNA expenses at EUR281 million. The effective tax rates for Q1 was 16.7%. In 2025, we expect an annualized effective tax rate of around 17%. Net income in Q1 was EUR2.4 billion, representing 30.4% of total net sales and resulting in an earnings per share of EUR6.

    營運費用符合預期,其中研發費用為 11.61 億歐元,FGNA 費用為 2.81 億歐元。第一季的有效稅率為16.7%。到 2025 年,我們預計年化有效稅率約為 17%。第一季淨收入為 24 億歐元,佔總淨銷售額的 30.4%,每股收益為 6 歐元。

  • Turning to the balance sheets. We ended the first quarter with cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at a level of EUR9.1 billion. After the very strong free cash flow generation in Q4, we had a Q1 with a free cash flow of minus EUR475 million due to a combination of customer payments and down payment dynamics and continued investments in fixed assets for future capacity.

    轉向資產負債表。第一季末,我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資達到 91 億歐元。在第四季度產生非常強勁的自由現金流之後,由於客戶付款和首付款動態以及對未來產能的固定資產的持續投資,我們第一季的自由現金流為負 4.75 億歐元。

  • Moving to the order book, Q1 net system bookings came in at EUR3.9 billion which is made up of EUR1.2 billion of UV and rounded EUR2.8 billion of non-UV. That's just bookings and the quarter were weighted towards logic. 60% of the bookings on (technical difficulty).

    談到訂單,第一季淨系統訂單金額達到 39 億歐元,其中包括 12 億歐元的 UV 和約 28 億歐元的非 UV。這只是預訂量,本季的重點是邏輯。 60% 的預訂(技術難度)。

  • If you want, ASML paid the third quarterly interim dividends over 2024 of EUR1.52 per ordinary share. Recognizing the three interim dividends of EUR1.52 for ordinary share each paid in 2024 and 2025 with a final dividend proposal to the annual general meeting of EUR1.84 per ordinary share. This would result in a total dividend for the year 2024 of EUR6.40 for ordinary share. In Q1 2025, we purchased shares for a total amount of around EUR2.7 billion.

    如果您願意,ASML 將在 2024 年支付每股普通股 1.52 歐元的第三季中期股息。確認 2024 年和 2025 年支付的三次中期股息,每次普通股 1.52 歐元,並向年度股東大會提出每股普通股 1.84 歐元的最終股息提案。這將導致 2024 年普通股的總股息為 6.40 歐元。2025 年第一季度,我們購買了總計約 27 億歐元的股票。

  • With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Christophe.

    說完這些,我想把電話轉回給克里斯托夫。

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Than you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, we started 2025 with good first quarter of financial results. Turning to the markets and consistent with our view from last quarter, the growth in artificial intelligence remains the key driver for growth in our industry.

    謝謝你,羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的,我們在 2025 年第一季取得了良好的財務表現。轉向市場,與我們上個季度的觀點一致,人工智慧的成長仍然是我們行業成長的主要驅動力。

  • If AI demand continues to be strong and customers are successful in bringing on additional capacity to support the demand, there is a potential opportunity towards the upper end of our range. On the other hand, there is still quite some uncertainty for a number of our customers that can lead to the lower end of (inaudible).

    如果人工智慧需求持續強勁,且客戶能夠成功引入額外產能來滿足需求,那麼就有可能達到我們產品範圍的上限。另一方面,對於我們的許多客戶來說,仍然存在相當多的不確定性,這可能導致(聽不清楚)。

  • We continue to see revenue from logic increasing in comparison to 2024 with the ramp of litigant nodes, and we expect memory revenue to remain strong, similar to 2024. Install-based management revenue is expected to grow in comparison to 2024. It is driven by increasing service levels as our in-store base grows and increasing contribution from EUV and an increase in revenue from our upgrade business.

    隨著訴訟節點的增加,與 2024 年相比,我們繼續看到邏輯收入的成長,並且我們預計記憶體收入將保持強勁,與 2024 年類似。與 2024 年相比,基於安裝的管理收入預計將有所增長。這是由於隨著我們店內基礎的成長,服務水準不斷提高,EUV 的貢獻不斷增加,以及升級業務的收入不斷增加。

  • Regarding recently announced tariffs, discussions are just starting and are very dynamic. The end state will be unknown for a while and until then the potential impact on our customers, supplier, and SML will continue to be unclear and will continue to evolve.

    關於最近宣布的關稅,討論才剛開始,而且非常活躍。最終狀態在一段時間內仍是未知的,在此之前,對我們的客戶、供應商和 SML 的潛在影響仍將不明確,並將繼續發展。

  • Roger will provide more details, but it is clear that uncertainty is increasing in the micro environment as reported by many experts and businesses. With that caveats, we continue to expect revenue of between EUR30 billion. EUR35 billion in 2025 and continue to expect 2026 to be a growth year.

    羅傑將提供更多細節,但正如許多專家和企業所報告的那樣,微觀環境中的不確定性顯然正在增加。考慮到這些警告,我們仍然預計收入將在 300 億歐元之間。 35歐元2025 年將達到 10 億美元,並預計 2026 年仍將是成長年。

  • With that, I ask Roger to provide some insight about how we are looking at the recent announcements. Roger?

    因此,我請羅傑提供一些關於我們如何看待最近的公告的見解。羅傑?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Thanks Christophe. As Christophe highlighted, we are currently facing an elevated level of uncertainty surrounding terrorists which may have both direct and indirect implications for our business. The total direct impact results from tariffs related to a number of areas including, new system sales and upgrades to our US customers, the import of materials for our US manufacturing facilities, the import of parts and tools for our US seal operations, and finally, imports of parts from the US into other countries to the extent tariffs apply to those parts.

    謝謝克里斯托夫。正如克里斯托夫所強調的,我們目前面臨著圍繞恐怖分子的高度不確定性,這可能對我們的業務產生直接和間接的影響。整體直接影響源自於與多個領域相關的關稅,包括向美國客戶銷售和升級新系統、為美國製造工廠進口材料、為美國密封業務進口零件和工具,以及最後從美國進口到其他國家的適用關稅範圍內的零件。

  • We are working with our customers and suppliers to try to achieve that any direct impact of tariffs on our results is limited. As Christophe said, the tariff discussion is still very dynamic. The potential indirect impact on end market demand is even more complex and impossible to determine at this stage.

    我們正在與客戶和供應商合作,努力將關稅對我們業績的直接影響降至最低。正如克里斯托夫所說,關稅討論仍然非常活躍。對終端市場需求的潛在間接影響更加複雜,現階段無法確定。

  • With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the second quarter of 2025. We expect Q2 total net sales to be between EUR7.2 billion and EUR7.7 billion. We expect our Q2 installed base management sales to be around EUR2 billion.

    接下來,我想談談我們對 2025 年第二季的預期。我們預計第二季總淨銷售額將在 72 億歐元至 77 億歐元之間。我們預計第二季安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 20 億歐元。

  • Gross margin for Q2 is expected to be between 50% and 53%. The bandwidth for gross margin is larger than usual, given the uncertainty around the scope and size of the tariffs and the value chain absorption of tariffs for the quarter.

    預計第二季的毛利率在50%至53%之間。考慮到本季關稅範圍和規模以及價值鏈對關稅的吸收的不確定性,毛利率的頻寬比平時更大。

  • The expected R&D expenses for Q2 are around EUR1.1 billion (sic - see press release, "EUR1.2 billion") and SG&A is expected to be around EUR300 million. The gross margin in the second half of the year is expected to be lower than the first half, primarily due to the expected margin dilutive effect of the revenue recognition of high (inaudible) systems in the second half of the year, lower upgrade revenue, as well as any potential impact of tariffs.

    第二季預計研發費用約 11 億歐元(原文如此 - 請參閱新聞稿「12 億歐元」),銷售、一般及行政費用預計約 3 億歐元。預計下半年的毛利率將低於上半年,主要由於下半年高(聽不清楚)系統收入確認的預期利潤率稀釋效應、升級收入降低以及關稅的任何潛在影響。

  • For the full year, we continue to expect a gross margin of between 51% and 53%, of course, with the caveat of the certainties around tariffs that we discussed before.

    對於全年而言,我們繼續預期毛利率將在 51% 至 53% 之間,當然,我們也曾討論過關稅的確定性。

  • With that, again, I turn it back over.

    說完,我又把它翻了過來。

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Thank you, Roger. Turning to technology. In EUV, we have achieved some important milestones on both the low NA and the high NA platforms. These are critical steps in providing a comprehensive EUV product portfolio that offers the necessary flexibility to support our customers roadmap requirements and optimize their cost of technology.

    謝謝你,羅傑。轉向技術。在 EUV 領域,我們在低 NA 和高 NA 平台上都取得了一些重要的里程碑。這些是提供全面的 EUV 產品組合的關鍵步驟,該產品組合提供了必要的靈活性,以支援我們客戶的路線圖要求並優化他們的技術成本。

  • Let me first update you on our low NXE 3800E. We started to upgrade our systems in the field to its final 220 wafers per hour configuration this quarter, and we continue the roll out on the install base late to 2025. We now ship all our new NXE 3800E system at full specification.

    首先讓我先向您介紹一下我們的低階 NXE 3800E。本季度,我們開始將現場系統升級到最終的每小時 220 個晶圓的配置,並且我們將繼續在安裝基礎上推出該配置,直到 2025 年末。我們現在以完整規格發售所有新型 NXE 3800E 系統。

  • In addition, our NXE 3800E maturity is reaching the level needed to support high volume manufacturing, and several logic and memory customers are ramping their most advanced nodes using this system. The gaining productivity supports the execution of our cost of technology reduction road map with our customers, enabling more opportunities for EUV single export adoption. This is especially relevant to DRAM, as discussed at our capital market.

    此外,我們的 NXE 3800E 成熟度已達到支援大批量生產所需的水平,並且一些邏輯和記憶體客戶正在使用該系統來提升其最先進的節點。生產力的提高支持了我們與客戶一起實施降低技術成本的路線圖,為採用 EUV 單一出口提供了更多機會。正如我們在資本市場所討論的那樣,這與 DRAM 尤其相關。

  • Let me turn now to high-NA. At the SPI conference in February, there were a number of good results presented by our customers who highlighted the achievements of some key performance and maturity milestone. They also stressed the benefit of the technology in terms of process simplification, cost, and cycle time reduction.

    現在讓我來談談高NA。在二月的SPI會議上,我們的客戶展示了許多良好的成果,並強調了一些關鍵性能和成熟度里程碑的成就。他們也強調了該技術在簡化流程、降低成本和縮短週期時間方面的優勢。

  • Process simplification leading to a fewer process steps, shorter cycle time, lower cost, and better yield are the historical value driver of single [expo lithography] versus multi patterning. These benefits drove the industry transition to EUV low NA and will drive the transition to high-NA EUV over time.

    製程簡化可減少製程步驟、縮短週期時間、降低成本並提高產量,這是單次 [曝光光刻] 與多次曝光的歷史價值驅動因素。這些優勢推動了產業向 EUV 低 NA 的轉變,並將隨著時間的推移推動高 NA EUV 的轉變。

  • One paper showed that the high-NA system maturity is far ahead of what we experience on low NA at the same stage of its introduction, supporting a much lower risk of insertion and adoption for our customers. Intel reported the exposure of more than 30,000 wafer in one quarter, and a significant process improvement by reducing the number of processed deaths from 40 to less than 10 on a given layer.

    一篇論文表明,高NA系統的成熟度遠遠領先於低NA在引入時的同一階段所經歷的成熟度,從而為我們的客戶提供了更低的插入和採用風險。英特爾報告稱,一個季度內曝光了超過 30,000 片晶圓,並且透過將給定層上的處理死亡數量從 40 減少到 10 以下,實現了顯著的工藝改進。

  • With that comes a significant cycle time improvement. Samsung reported a 60% improvement in cycle time in one of their use cases as well. We shipped our fifth and final EXE5000 INS system in Q1. And now our system as three different customers.

    隨之而來的是周期時間的顯著改善。三星還報告稱,在他們的一個使用案例中,週期時間提高了 60%。我們在第一季交付了第五套也是最後一套 EXE5000 INS 系統。現在我們的系統有三個不同的客戶。

  • With the 401 on high-NA system model, the EXE5200 shipping from Q2 this year. As we have described before, there are three phases of technology insertion, our customer will follow with high-NA. We are currently in Phase 1, where our customers take a system into their R&D facility and work with us to understand the value and capability of high-NA for their next note.

    採用 401 高 NA 系統模型的 EXE5200 將於今年第二季出貨。正如我們之前所描述的,技術插入分為三個階段,我們的客戶將採用高NA。我們目前處於第一階段,我們的客戶將系統帶入他們的研發設施並與我們合作,以了解高NA對他們的下一款​​產品的價值和能力。

  • In Phase 2, which we expect to take place in 2026, 2027, customer will start running the system on one, two layers to test its readiness for the new manufacturing.

    在第二階段,我們預計將於 2026 年、2027 年進行,客戶將開始在一層、兩層上運行該系統,以測試是否已為新製造做好準備。

  • In Phase 3 when customers design in high-NA on their most critical layers in their most advanced nodes and run in manufacturers.

    在第三階段,客戶在其最先進的節點的最關鍵層上設計高NA並在製造商中運行。

  • Looking longer term, the semiconductor market remains strong with artificial intelligence, creating growth in recent quarters, and we see some of the future demand for AI solidifying, which is encouraging. Our conversation so far with our customers confirm our expectation that both 2025 and 2026 will be growth year.

    從長遠來看,半導體市場在人工智慧的推動下依然保持強勁,在最近幾季實現了成長,我們看到未來對人工智慧的一些需求正在鞏固,這是令人鼓舞的。到目前為止,我們與客戶的對話證實了我們的預期,即 2025 年和 2026 年都將是成長年。

  • At the same time, as Roger and I have already explained, there is an increased uncertainty across the global economy to the ongoing discussion on tariffs. As discussed in our capital market day, we expect that the end market dynamics will lead to a product mix shift more towards advanced logic and DRAM.

    與此同時,正如羅傑和我已經解釋的那樣,全球經濟對正在進行的關稅討論的不確定性正在增加。正如我們在資本市場日所討論的那樣,我們預計終端市場動態將導致產品組合更多地轉向先進的邏輯和 DRAM。

  • The combination of our NXE3800E for the progress of strong productivity road map on low NA and the introduction of high-NA will support the cost of technology reduction and the conversion of more multi pattern layers to a singularly EV exports, leading to higher lethal intensity.

    我們的NXE3800E在低NA上強勁生產力路線圖的進展與高NA的引入相結合,將支援技術成本的降低和更多多層圖案層向單一EV出口的轉換,從而帶來更高的殺傷力。

  • In line with our 2024 Capital Market Day, we expect 2030 revenue opportunity between EUR44 billion. and EUR60 billion, with gross margin expected between 56% and 60%. Finally, as a reminder, we host our annual general meeting on Wednesday, April 23, and we hope to welcome our shareholders again there.

    根據我們 2024 年資本市場日的預測,我們預計 2030 年的營收機會將達到 440 億歐元。以及600億歐元,毛利率預計在56%至60%之間。最後,提醒一下,我們將於 4 月 23 日星期三舉行年度股東大會,我們希望在那裡再次歡迎我們的股東。

  • With that, we will be happy to take your question.

    我們將很高興回答您的問題。

  • Jim Kavanagh - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Jim Kavanagh - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Roger, and thank you, Christophe. The operator will now instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. Beforehand, I would like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to one question with a short follow-up if necessary. This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible.

    謝謝你,羅傑,謝謝你,克里斯托夫。操作員現在將暫時指導您問答環節的協議。首先,請您將問題限制在一個範圍內,如有必要,請進行簡短的跟進。這將使我們能夠聯繫到盡可能多的呼叫者。

  • Now, operator, could you -- could we have your final instructions and then your first question, please?

    現在,接線員,您能給我們最後的指示,然後問您第一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Francois Bouvignies, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的 Francois Bouvignies。

  • Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

    Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. My first question would be on high-NA. So you have been doing a lot of work and very promising in terms of breakthrough and technology developments like you described, Christophe. So I know you are working on this common platform to help on the cost side. But obviously, like you described, it's a question of cost of ownership versus multi-patterning.

    非常感謝。我的第一個問題是關於高 NA 的。所以,正如您所描述的,克里斯托夫,您已經做了很多工作,並且在突破和技術發展方面非常有前景。所以我知道你們正在努力開發這個通用平台來幫助降低成本。但顯然,就像您所描述的那樣,這是一個擁有成本與多重模式的問題。

  • So cost performance benefits where they're going to make the decision. And with that in mind, I was wondering if you would consider some flexibility around the pricing of high-NA to facilitate adoption, I mean, to help your customers decide more quicker, if that makes sense. So I was wondering if it's something you consider at all at the moment, the pricing of high-NA to help the adoption.

    因此,他們將根據成本效益來做出決定。考慮到這一點,我想知道您是否會考慮在高 NA 定價方面採取一些靈活性以促進採用,我的意思是,幫助您的客戶更快地做出決定,如果這有意義的話。所以我想知道您現在是否考慮過高 NA 的定價來幫助採用。

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Well, Francois, thank you. It's a good question. I think you remind everyone that indeed, in general, single-exposed lithography will be better for customers than multi-patterning. I mentioned that this typically lead to process simplification, improvement, cost reduction. So when it comes to any new lithography system, I think, of course, we want to drive the adoption of those tools as quickly as possible basically to get to single-exposed.

    好吧,弗朗索瓦,謝謝你。這是個好問題。我想您提醒大家,確實,一般來說,單次曝光光刻對客戶來說比多重曝光更好。我提到這通常會導致流程簡化、改進和成本降低。因此,當涉及任何新的光刻系統時,我認為,我們當然希望盡快推動這些工具的採用,基本上實現單次曝光。

  • We are still working on that, as you know, for low-NA, so that also typically takes some time. And of course, we're going to do the same for high-NA. Now usually, the main reason to not adopt very quickly the new system fully for single-exposed is not the tool price, to be honest. It's the tool maturity. And I think it's very important to get that maturity at the right level because, if not, you will set basically a cost of technology point that will be not very optimized.

    如您所知,我們仍在針對低 NA 進行研究,因此這通常也需要一些時間。當然,對於高 NA,我們也將採取同樣的做法。現在通常來說,單次曝光無法快速完全採用新系統的主要原因不是工具價格,老實說。這是工具的成熟度。我認為將成熟度提升到正確的水平非常重要,因為如果沒有,那麼你設定的技術成本點就不會得到很好的優化。

  • And this is why, not only I refer to maturity in my introduction, but you also heard me quoting a customer also making the case at SPIE that the maturity of high-NA was by far ahead of the maturity of low-NA at a similar stage.

    這就是為什麼我不僅在介紹中提到了成熟度,而且你們也聽到我引用了一位客戶的話,該客戶也在 SPIE 上證明了高 NA 的成熟度遠遠領先於處於類似階段的低 NA 的成熟度。

  • So this is still the work we have to do. I mentioned the three phases. I think it's a major part of Phase 2. And I think if you look at the focus of ASML today with the customer on high-NA is really to get this maturity in place as soon as possible so that the adoption is there. Lowering the price at low maturity will just create too much headache for our customer because the tool will not be very reliable.

    所以這仍然是我們要做的工作。我提到了三個階段。我認為這是第二階段的主要部分。我認為,如果您看一下 ASML 目前與客戶在高 NA 方面的關注點,那麼實際上就是盡快實現成熟,以便能夠被採用。在成熟度較低的情況下降低價格只會給我們的客戶帶來太多麻煩,因為該工具不太可靠。

  • Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

    Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

  • Makes sense. Thanks, Christophe, And maybe my quick follow-up would be on the comment on single-exposed EUV that you start seeing, I mean, the adoption on more single-exposed versus multi-patterning , I guess, on low-NA that you are referring. Can you help us on the timing? You mentioned DRAM specifically that you see more adoption on single-exposure? I mean what timing should we look at this opportunity? If you start seeing it, I would imagine, it's a two years view you are talking about, or could it be quicker?

    有道理。謝謝,Christophe,也許我的快速跟進是關於您開始看到的單次曝光 EUV 的評論,我的意思是,在您所指的低 NA 上,更多地採用單次曝光而不是多重圖案。您能幫我們確定時間嗎?您特別提到了 DRAM,您認為單次曝光的採用率更高嗎?我的意思是我們應該在什麼時候考慮這個機會?如果你開始看到它,我可以想像,你談論的是兩年的前景,或者可以更快嗎?

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • I think those things are happening, I will say, almost as we speak. So I think every new customer nodes where we bring basically a tool with a better cost of technology, such as the 3800E is an opportunity for more adoption. So I think this is, I would say, a permanent job that's something we have been working with our customers for a bit.

    我想說,這些事情正在發生,幾乎就在我們說話的時候。因此,我認為我們為每個新的客戶節點帶來的基本上是具有更優技術成本的工具,例如 3800E,都是一個獲得更多採用的機會。所以我認為這是一份永久性的工作,我們一直在與客戶合作。

  • I think the place we are today with low-NA EUV, the maturity of the tool, the step we do on productivity, remember, the 3800 is 30% faster than the 3600. I would say, really gives us a chance to be optimistic on that work with our customers in the coming years. But the work already started, Francois.

    我認為我們今天在低NA EUV方面的進展、工具的成熟度以及我們在生產力方面採取的措施,請記住,3800 比 3600 快 30%。我想說,這確實讓我們有機會對未來幾年與客戶的合作充滿信心。但是工作已經開始了,弗朗索瓦。

  • Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

    Francois Bouvignies - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very much.

    偉大的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

    Krish Sankar,TD Cowen。

  • Krish Sankar - Analyst

    Krish Sankar - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks for taking my question. First one for Roger. I'm just kind of curious, you talked about growth next year. What kind of bookings run rate should we expect in the current and the next quarter to see the growth? And if calendar '25 ends up in the upper end of the range, would calendar '26 still be a growth year? And then I have a follow-up.

    是的,感謝您回答我的問題。第一個是羅傑。我只是有點好奇,你談到了明年的成長。我們應該預期當季和下一季的預訂運行率達到什麼樣的水平才能實現成長?如果 25 年的銷售額達到該範圍的上限,那麼 26 年是否仍將是成長年?然後我有一個後續問題。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Yes. So Krish, I'm not going to comment on the magnitude of the growth, as we already also said on the video. We still believe '26 to be a growth year based on our technology, based on the conversations we have with customers, based on the intrinsic market demand as we see it with the caveat that we also talked about, which is the general macro climate.

    是的。所以 Krish,我不會評論成長的幅度,正如我們在影片中已經說過的那樣。我們仍然相信,基於我們的技術、基於我們與客戶的對話、基於我們所看到的內在市場需求,26 年將是成長的一年,但我們也談到了警告,即整體宏觀環境。

  • In terms of what bookings do we need to get there, I'm not going to go into any detail there. I think you can easily figure out what the backlog is today. I think you can easily figure out that there is a very significant part in the backlog that actually pertains to the period beyond 2025.

    關於我們需要什麼預訂才能到達那裡,我不會詳細說明。我想您可以輕鬆弄清楚今天的積壓情況。我想您可以輕鬆發現,積壓訂單中有很大一部分實際上與 2025 年以後的時期有關。

  • So there is already a very good booking level, I would say, for next year. But of course, bookings still need to come in order to make the growth year and these happen. So I think that's what we should see in the next quarters.

    所以我想說,明年的預訂水準已經非常好了。但當然,為了實現增長年,仍然需要預訂。所以我認為這就是我們在下個季度應該看到的。

  • But I'm not going to quantify it, also in light of the comment that we made before on the nature of the bookings and the extent to which it does not really reflect the business momentum always accurately of our business.

    但我不會量化它,也考慮到我們之前對預訂性質的評論,以及它不能真正反映我們業務的業務勢頭的程度。

  • Krish Sankar - Analyst

    Krish Sankar - Analyst

  • Got it, Roger. And then as a quick follow-up, do you still expect China to land similar to the mid-20% of sales? And can you give any color on the backlog composition, how much is EUV, Deep UV in China in that mix?

    明白了,羅傑。然後,作為一個快速的後續問題,您是否仍然預計中國市場的銷售額將達到 20% 左右?您能否提供一些積壓訂單的組成情況,其中中國的 EUV 和 Deep UV 佔了多少?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Sorry. You broke up in the first part of the question. I couldn't understand it, Krish. Maybe you can repeat it.

    對不起。你們在問題的第一部分就分手了。我無法理解,克里什。也許你可以重複一遍。

  • Krish Sankar - Analyst

    Krish Sankar - Analyst

  • Yes. Sorry, Roger. I was trying to figure out, is China is still going to be around 25%, mid-20 percentage of sales this year. And any color on the composition of the backlog?

    是的。抱歉,羅傑。我想弄清楚的是,今年中國市場的銷售額是否仍將占到 25% 左右,或 20% 左右。積壓的組成有什麼顏色嗎?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Understood. So yes, China, we believe China will be a little bit over 25% of sales this year. As you know, in the previous call, we said it's low 20s. The way we look at it today, the demand within Deep UV is shifting a little bit, and I think the right way to look at it today would be that it's a little over 25% of our total sales this year.

    明白了。所以是的,我們相信中國今年的銷售額將略高於 25%。如你所知,在之前的通話中,我們說它是 20 多度。從我們今天的角度來看,Deep UV 的需求正在發生一些變化,我認為今天正確的看法是,它略高於我們今年總銷售額的 25%。

  • And in terms of the composition of the backlog, if what you're referring to is the China part of the backlog, I guess, that's what your question is, I think that the China part in the backlog is still in this -- around the same number. So it's still in that 20% to 25% range approximately.

    就積壓訂單的組成而言,如果您指的是積壓訂單中與中國有關的部分,我想,這就是您的問題,我認為積壓訂單中與中國有關的部分仍然在這個數字左右。所以它仍然在大約 20% 到 25% 的範圍內。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thanks you very much, Roger.

    非常感謝,羅傑。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的喬‧夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

  • Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

    Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks for taking the questions. One on the tariff front. Can you talk about just what your customer conversations have been like over the last couple of weeks? Is there any interest in altering delivery schedules? And just kind of how do we think about your (technical difficulty) in the context of the ability to like pull shipments in to kind of elude some of the tariffs?

    是的,感謝您回答這些問題。一個是關於關稅方面。您能談談過去幾週您與客戶的對話情況嗎?有興趣改變交貨時間表嗎?那麼,在運輸貨物以逃避部分關稅方面,我們如何看待您的(技術難題)?

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Well, maybe I can start, and then Roger will add. But I think the short summary of our customer conversations so far, I think that the announcement of tariffs have not changed the business conversation we have with our customers. So that's the first point.

    好吧,也許我可以開始,然後羅傑會補充。但我認為,根據我們迄今為止與客戶的對話簡要總結,我認為關稅的宣布並沒有改變我們與客戶的業務對話。這是第一點。

  • The second point, I think the level of uncertainty we shared in the introduction, which, of course, as the result of the many announcements we have seen in a very short time, I think that uncertainty is also with our customers and with our suppliers. So a lot of people are still trying to understand exactly what it means for them. And I think in some way, we start to try to do that together.

    第二點,我認為我們在介紹中分享了不確定性的程度,當然,由於我們在很短的時間內看到了許多公告,我認為我們的客戶和供應商也存在不確定性。因此,許多人仍在試圖理解這對他們來說究竟意味著什麼。我認為,在某種程度上,我們開始嘗試一起做到這一點。

  • But that's extremely preliminary. And I will say, again, once more that, so far, those discussions have not changed fundamentally the business planning or the business discussions we have been having with our customers.

    但這還只是初步的。我再說一遍,到目前為止,這些討論並沒有從根本上改變我們與客戶之間的業務規劃或業務討論。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Because fundamentally, I mean, it's even impossible for a number of customers to do what we're suggesting here, because, of course, to a very large extent, what is gating what customers (inaudible), right? So they need to have fabs to put tools into. And at least for a number of customers, that is the number one gating item, so it would even be impossible to opportunistically just pull in system. That's not the way for us.

    因為從根本上來說,我的意思是,許多客戶甚至不可能按照我們在這裡建議的那樣做,因為,當然,在很大程度上,什麼在限制哪些客戶(聽不清楚),對吧?所以他們需要有晶圓廠來放置工具。至少對許多客戶來說,這是最重要的門檻,因此,甚至不可能機會性地引入系統。這不是我們的出路。

  • Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

    Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

  • Yes. No, that makes sense. I appreciate the color. And then you talked about the 3800 low-NA becoming the main tool for your system shipments now. Can you remind us, did you -- how many of the 3600 are still left that you prebuilt, I think, last year in inventory? Is there anything that we should think about like in terms of the salability of those tools? Or can you upgrade some of those tools to be closer to the productivity of the 3800 to sell?

    是的。不,這很有道理。我很欣賞這個顏色。然後您談到 3800 低 NA 現在成為您系統出貨的主要工具。您能提醒我們嗎——我認為,去年您預建的 3600 台庫存中還剩下多少台?在這些工具的適銷性方面,我們是否應該考慮一些事情?或者您可以升級其中一些工具,使其更接近 3800 的生產力以供銷售?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Yes. We have no concerns actually on the ability to sell the 3600. So that's -- the 3600s, the number of prebuilds, you will see that come down this year, and there is no concern around the ability for us to sell the remaining 3600s that we even build -- that we built or are in the process of building. No concern there.

    是的。實際上,我們並不擔心 3600 的銷售能力。因此,您會看到,今年 3600 的預製數量會下降,我們不必擔心是否有能力銷售我們已建造或正在建造的剩餘 3600。沒什麼好擔心的。

  • Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

    Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you.

    完美的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Didier Scemama, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的迪迪埃‧斯凱瑪瑪 (Didier Scemama)。

  • Didier Scemama - Analyst

    Didier Scemama - Analyst

  • Yeah, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to make sure I get everything right. So I think if you look at the blended ASPs of your low-NA EUV, I think it came in at about EUR230 million. If I do the math correctly, also on your gross margin, it looks like your EUV gross margins were at about 55%. So my question is, is that correct?

    是的,下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想確保一切都正確。因此,我認為,如果您看一下低 NA EUV 的混合 ASP,我認為它的價格約為 2.3 億歐元。如果我計算正確的話,您的毛利率似乎約為 55%。所以我的問題是,這是正確的嗎?

  • And I've got a quick follow-up, especially if you could talk about whether any one-off or exceptional -- I think you talked about upgrades, whether that came into the ASP, the gross margin or in IBM or in all elements. Thank you.

    我有一個快速的跟進問題,特別是如果您可以談談是否有一次性的或特殊的 - 我認為您談到了升級,無論是涉及 ASP、毛利率還是 IBM 或所有元素。謝謝。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • So you're right on your calculation of the ASP, it is indeed close to EUR230 million. I think it's EUR227 million, is the number on the ASP. That's, as we said, it's a little on the high side given composition of 3800, 3600, also configuration, et cetera. But I do believe on a go-forward basis, I think a blended rate a little bit below that point. So then the rate of around EUR220 million is probably the right number to have in your models as a blended rate for low-NA.

    所以您對 ASP 的計算是正確的,它確實接近 2.3 億歐元。我認為平均售價是 2.27 億歐元。正如我們所說,考慮到 3800、3600 的組成、配置等,這個價格有點偏高。但我確實相信,從未來來看,混合利率會略低於該點。因此,在您的模型中,約 2.2 億歐元的利率可能是低 NA 的混合利率的正確數字。

  • When it comes to the gross margin, we don't disclose that on a product-by-product basis. But I think we said in the past that the gross margin on low-NA is clearly now above the corporate gross margin. So that's clearly the case, but we're not separately disclosing that.

    說到毛利率,我們不會逐一產品揭露。但我認為我們過去曾說過,低 NA 的毛利率現在明顯高於企業毛利率。情況顯然如此,但我們不會單獨披露這一點。

  • Didier Scemama - Analyst

    Didier Scemama - Analyst

  • Got it. And on China, I just wanted to also get a bit of color. So you said that from the previous guide of the low 20% of group revenues, you think China is going to be a bit above 25%. So can you talk about what's changed there?

    知道了。對於中國,我只是想增加一點色彩。所以您說,根據先前集團收入佔 20% 以下的指導,您認為中國市場將略高於 25%。那麼你能談談那裡發生了什麼變化嗎?

  • And also if you could maybe, within that, give us a sense of what's your directional guidance would be on China IBM revenues because, obviously, there's been restriction on maintenance and services on the [disposing] fabs. So just wanted to understand what you've provisioned for that IBM revenues in '25. Thank you.

    另外,您是否可以向我們介紹一下您對中國 IBM 收入的方向性指導,因為顯然,[處置] 晶圓廠的維護和服務受到了限制。所以只是想了解一下您為 25 年的 IBM 收入做了哪些準備。謝謝。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Yes. So Didier, when it comes to a few percentage point changes, I think we should recognize that you're looking at a couple of hundred million, right? So we're not looking at huge shifts. We're looking at couple of hundred million shifts, which I think is normal business dynamics that you have a shift like that. So I think what you notice is that the demand in China is still strong.

    是的。所以迪迪埃,當談到幾個百分點的變化時,我想我們應該認識到你正在關注的是幾億,對嗎?所以我們並不期待出現巨大的轉變。我們正在考慮幾億次轉變,我認為這樣的轉變是正常的商業動態。所以我認為你會注意到中國的需求仍然強勁。

  • And if you then look at where is the demand strong, it is still strong particularly in the mainstream business. That's where the demand continues to be very strong. And that is on the back of the demand for mainstream chips in China, both for domestic consumption, but also for what China exports to the rest of the world. So that demand is still resilient and, in fact, a bit better than what we anticipated three months ago or six months ago.

    如果你看看哪裡的需求強勁,你會發現它仍然強勁,特別是在主流業務中。這就是需求持續強勁的地方。這是由於中國對主流晶片的需求,不僅用於國內消費,也用於中國向世界其他地區的出口。因此,需求仍然具有彈性,事實上,比我們三個月前或六個月前的預期要好一些。

  • Didier Scemama - Analyst

    Didier Scemama - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you so much.

    知道了。太感謝了。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alexander Duval, Goldman Sachs.

    亞歷山大杜瓦爾,高盛。

  • Alexander Duval - Analyst

    Alexander Duval - Analyst

  • Yes, hi everyone, thanks very much for the question. Firstly, there were some reports mid-quarter talking about China being close to develop its own alternative to EUV lithography tools. I wondered if you could just share your latest view on those and to what extent those really have sufficient scalability, reliability and so on.

    是的,大家好,非常感謝您的提問。首先,本季中期有一些報告指出中國即將開發自己的 EUV 光刻工具替代品。我想知道您是否可以分享您對這些的最新看法,以及它們在多大程度上真正具有足夠的可擴展性、可靠性等等。

  • And secondly, you talked today about AI demand solidifying, if I heard well in your prepared remarks. We saw NVIDIA at its GTC event talk about increasing inferencing and reasoning models, driving more semis demand. I wondered if that could be something that could impact your long-term TAM expectation in a positive way. Many thanks.

    其次,如果我沒聽錯的話,您今天談到了人工智慧需求的鞏固。我們看到 NVIDIA 在其 GTC 活動上談論增加推理和推理模型,從而推動更多半導體需求。我想知道這是否會對您的長期 TAM 預期產生積極影響。非常感謝。

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Okay. I'll take the easy question on the EUV China. I think there is nothing really new there. I think that we expect to continue to see news here and there on some progress with regards to EUV in China. And I think this is mostly driven by a strong wish, I think, from China to have this tool and to display some progress.

    好的。我將回答有關 EUV 中國的一個簡單問題。我認為那裡並沒有什麼新鮮事。我認為我們期望繼續看到有關中國 EUV 方面取得進展的新聞。我認為這主要是因為中國強烈希望擁有這項工具並取得一些進展。

  • If you look at the fundamental even if you look at what has been shown, we have seen some pictures, I think that, I would consider that as research news more than product yields, and therefore, of course, it's always possible to generate some EUV light, it may even be possible to have an EUV [mirror] here and there. But in no way this is enough proof that there is a serious product on the way.

    如果你看一下基本面,即使你看一下已經展示的內容,我們已經看到了一些圖片,我認為,我會將其視為研究新聞而不是產品產量,因此,當然,總是有可能產生一些 EUV 光,甚至可能在這裡和那裡有一個 EUV [鏡子]。但這不足以證明一款重要的產品即將問世。

  • So I think we are still on the same view that it will take many, many years for China to be able to make an EUV machine. And again, you should expect some more news because I think that's just what you do when you want to show progress.

    所以我認為我們仍然持有相同的觀點,即中國需要很多很多年才能製造出 EUV 機器。再說一次,你應該期待更多的新聞,因為我認為這就是你想要展示進步時所做的事情。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • And on the, Alexander, on the AI demand, I think the comment that Christophe made on that, I think, is a comment in general. So what we hear from customers, both on the logic side and on the memory side, that they still see strong demand there.

    關於亞歷山大 (Alexander) 和人工智慧需求,我認為克里斯托夫 (Christophe) 對此發表的評論只是一般性評論。因此,我們從邏輯方面和記憶體方面的客戶那裡聽說,他們仍然看到強勁的需求。

  • I think the point that you make is right, I think there has been a lot of emphasis in the past quarters on the training side of life. I think more and more, which I think is logical, that you also see more and more emphasis being put on the inferencing side of the equation. So I think you will see the inferencing part becoming a larger component of AI demand on a go forward basis. So I think you will continue to see that develop.

    我認為你的觀點是正確的,我認為在過去的幾個季度裡,我們非常重視生活的訓練方面。我越來越認為,這是合乎邏輯的,你也會看到人們越來越重視等式的推理面向。因此我認為你會看到推理部分在未來成為人工智慧需求中更重要的組成部分。所以我認為你會繼續看到這種發展。

  • Alexander Duval - Analyst

    Alexander Duval - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

    克里斯‧卡索(Chris Caso),沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Chris Caso - Analyst

    Chris Caso - Analyst

  • Yes, thank you. Good morning. I guess first question would be on gross margins, and you have provided a wider range for Q2, taking into consideration some of the tariff impact. But speaking for the full year, what are the expectations there? What sort of direct tariff impact are you expecting in the gross margins? And what goes into the thinking with regard to the gross margin for the full year?

    是的,謝謝。早安.我想第一個問題是關於毛利率的,考慮到部分關稅的影響,您為第二季提供了更廣泛的範圍。但就全年而言,預期是什麼?您預計關稅會對毛利率產生何種直接影響?那麼對於全年的毛利率有什麼考量呢?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Yes, Chris, as we have said on the video, it's very hard, given the dynamics around tariffs to put any meaningful number on there, right? Because on the one hand, the question is what tariff will eventually -- what tariffs are eventually going to look at, in general, from one region to the other.

    是的,克里斯,正如我們在影片中所說的那樣,考慮到關稅的動態,很難給出任何有意義的數字,對嗎?因為一方面,問題在於,從一個地區到另一個地區,關稅最終會是什麼樣子——一般來說,關稅最終會考慮哪些方面。

  • But then more specifically, when it comes to semiconductors, it's pretty clear that is still under review by the US government. So it's impossible to see what, as I mentioned before, what the size of the tariffs is actually going to be.

    但更具體地說,當談到半導體時,很明顯地它仍在接受美國政府的審查。因此,正如我之前提到的,我們不可能知道關稅的實際規模到底是多少。

  • And then the second question, to the extent that that is clear, the question is how will that ultimately be absorbed in the entire value chain. And we've made it clear also on the video that we're working very closely with everyone involved to try and minimize the total exposure of the ecosystem to tariffs. So we try to see what we can do to minimize the overall impact.

    然後第二個問題,如果這一點明確的話,問題是它最終將如何被吸收到整個價值鏈中。我們在影片中也明確表示,我們正在與所有相關人員密切合作,努力將生態系統受到關稅的整體影響降至最低。因此,我們嘗試看看我們能做些什麼來盡量減少整體影響。

  • But we also believe that once that has been minimized, that the burden of that should not be with ASML, that the burden of the tariff, that the lion's share of the tariff burden should be borne by the next element in the value chain. I think that's the way we approach it.

    但我們也相信,一旦將這項負擔降至最低,那麼關稅負擔就不應該由 ASML 承擔,而關稅負擔的大部分應該由價值鏈中的下一個要素承擔。我認為這就是我們處理這個問題的方式。

  • But there is still so much uncertainty out there that to make any judgment what impact that is going to have on the full year is absolutely impossible. The reason that we put it into the quarter that, we said in the quarter, we have a wider bandwidth, is that, obviously, the timeframe there is a bit shorter, that allows you to try and include the impact into the quarter. But for the full year, it's impossible to put a number on it.

    但仍存在太多的不確定性,因此絕對不可能判斷這將對全年產生什麼影響。我們將其納入季度的原因在於,我們在本季度表示,我們擁有更寬的頻寬,顯然,那裡的時間範圍要短一些,這允許您嘗試將影響納入季度。但對於全年而言,我們無法給出一個確切的數字。

  • Chris Caso - Analyst

    Chris Caso - Analyst

  • Understood. That's helpful. If I could ask my follow-up, a bit of a bigger picture question. And there's been a school of thought that, if we need to diversify the geographic location of fabs going forward, if we're going to produce more in the US, if produce more in China, then that's ultimately good for WFE spending. And it would seem that the current tariff situation would at least advance that narrative.

    明白了。這很有幫助。如果我可以問後續問題的話,這是一個更大一點的問題。有一種觀點認為,如果我們需要在未來實現晶圓廠地理位置的多樣化,如果我們要在美國生產更多產品,如果在中國生產更多產品,那麼這最終將有利於 WFE 的支出。而目前的關稅情勢似乎至少會推動這項說法。

  • I'm just interested in your latest thinking with regard to that and sort of geographic diversity and the effect on your business and perhaps some of the conversations you may have had with customers with that regard.

    我只是對您在這方面的最新想法以及地理多樣性和對您業務的影響以及您可能與客戶就此進行的一些對話感興趣。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • I think that notion on the one hand still holds. So I think the notion that having dispersed fabs across the globe in all likelihood will drive to, ultimately, to more capacity having to be installed in order to still be able to drive the same number of wafers. So there will be a heightened level of inefficiency in there.

    我認為,一方面,這種觀念仍然成立。因此,我認為,在全球範圍內分散晶圓廠的想法很可能會導致最終需要安裝更多的產能,以便仍然能夠生產相同數量的晶圓。因此那裡的效率將會進一步下降。

  • I think you actually see that now in the entire value chain. You see it in semiconductor manufacturing. You see it in discussions on data centers being spread across multiple continents more so than has been considered so far. So I think this whole notion of having a more dispersed nature within our ecosystem, you see that in multiple basis. Eventually, I think that will drive up the demand for semiconductor for wafers. And then to the extent that those wafers are made in different places, I think that will drive that up.

    我認為你現在實際上已經在整個價值鏈中看到了這一點。您可以在半導體製造業中看到它。您可以在有關資料中心分佈在多個大洲的討論中看到這一點,其範圍比迄今為止考慮的要廣。所以我認為,我們的生態系統具有更分散的本質,你可以在多個基礎上看到這一點。最終,我認為這將推動對半導體晶圓的需求。然後,考慮到這些晶圓是在不同地方製造的,我認為這將推動這一增長。

  • So there is a potentially positive element in that. But as Christophe very clearly said it in the video and also in the call at the beginning, the uncertainty that we're currently having on tariffs is a dimension that we also have to consider there. So I think it's a story of puts and takes.

    因此這其中存在潛在的正面因素。但正如克里斯托夫在視訊和一開始的通話中非常明確地指出的那樣,我們目前在關稅方面面臨的不確定性也是我們必須考慮的一個方面。所以我認為這是一個關於付出和收穫的故事。

  • Chris Caso - Analyst

    Chris Caso - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna.

    梅赫迪‧胡賽尼 (Mehdi Hosseini),薩斯奎漢納 (Susquehanna)。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Yes, thanks for taking my question. And I do have two. Starting with the EXE platform. Christophe, can you remind us what are the key milestones as we go from R&D EXE5000 to production, which is EXE5200? And those milestones, it could be in terms of the throughput or any other factors that you can share with us.

    是的,感謝您回答我的問題。我確實有兩個。從 EXE 平台開始。克里斯托夫,您能否提醒一下我們從研發 EXE5000 到生產(即 EXE5200)的關鍵里程碑是什麼?這些里程碑可以是吞吐量,也可以是您可以與我們分享的任何其他因素。

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Yes. I'll try to do it again quickly. So I think we usually talk about three phases. And the first phase (inaudible) for our customer is to receive first tool or use the tool we have in the lab in ASML to test the technology. It's a completely new technology, new imaging, new performance.

    是的。我會盡快再做一次。所以我認為我們通常會談論三個階段。對於我們的客戶來說,第一階段(聽不清楚)是接收第一個工具或使用我們在 ASML 實驗室中的工具來測試技術。這是一項全新的技術、新的影像、新的效能。

  • So they use basically this time to really validating some way that the design of the technology deliver what they had in mind. And this is done with R&D tools. So this is why we had the EXE5000. This was a tool that we really, basically sought through in order to support this R&D work. And this is a bit where our customers are today. That's also why we are usually happy when they share results because they show basically that this phase is progressing well.

    因此,他們基本上利用這段時間來真正驗證技術設計是否能夠實現他們的想法。這是透過研發工具來實現的。這就是我們擁有 EXE5000 的原因。這是我們為了支持這項研發工作而真正尋求的工具。這就是我們今天的客戶的情況。這也是為什麼當他們分享結果時我們通常會感到高興,因為結果基本上表明這個階段進展順利。

  • The next phase is basically when they will really start to test the tool in what I would call early production. So they will select a limited amount of layer, a little bit amount of product. and then they will really run the tool in production. But this is also where our EXE5200 becomes important. So this is a tool with higher productivity, more maturity, basically a tool that enable customers to really start this second phase.

    下一階段基本上就是他們真正開始測試該工具,我稱之為早期生產。因此他們會選擇有限數量的層,少量的產品。然後他們才會在生產中真正運行該工具。但這也是我們的 EXE5200 變得重要的原因。因此,這是一個生產力更高、更成熟度的工具,基本上是一個讓客戶能夠真正開始第二階段的工具。

  • And as you heard, we are starting to ship this tool now. And once this is done, typically, a customer will be convinced that the tool can do the job, the tool is mature. And then they will use it fully for any future node in high-volume manufacturing. And that, I think, we have said will come mostly '27, '28. So that's a bit the sequence. And it can seem a bit long. But of course, you need to do that across a couple of nodes. And so far, I think that's the progress we are witnessing with our customer.

    正如您所聽到的,我們現在開始運送這個工具。一旦完成,通常客戶就會相信該工具可以完成工作,該工具已經成熟。然後,他們將在未來的任何大量生產節點中充分利用它。我認為,我們已經說過,這主要會在 2027 年和 2028 年實現。這就是一個序列。而且它看起來有點長。但當然,您需要跨幾個節點來執行此操作。到目前為止,我認為這就是我們在客戶身上看到的進步。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • I see. And given that your earlier comment that focus on key takeaways -- I'm sorry. Given your earlier comment that has to do with the key takeaways from SPIE conference in February, it seems like advanced logic would be the first adopter and then there's a debate as to what happens to foundry versus DRAM as the second type of adopter for these high-NA technology?

    我懂了。鑑於您之前的評論重點關注關鍵要點——我很抱歉。鑑於您先前的評論與二月份 SPIE 會議的主要內容有關,似乎先進邏輯將是第一個採用者,然後有一個爭論,即代工廠和 DRAM 作為這些高 NA 技術的第二種採用者會發生什麼?

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Well, I think it's hard to say because, to be honest, we said it in the past, the timing is very close. And when we refer to the to the three customers, when we referred in the past the customer having access to our lab, this is really covering both logic and memory customers. And I would say both logic and memory customers have good reason to use high-NA as soon as the maturity of the tool and, therefore, the cost of technology and the tool will be there.

    嗯,我認為這很難說,因為說實話,我們過去就說過,時機非常接近。當我們提到這三個客戶時,當我們過去提到可以訪問我們實驗室的客戶時,這實際上涵蓋了邏輯和記憶體客戶。我想說,只要工具成熟,邏輯和記憶體客戶都有充分的理由使用高NA,因此技術和工具的成本就會存在。

  • So to be honest, yes, historically, we always expect logic to be first. It could be the case that it's a very close call. So I will not make a bet today. But both memory and logic customers are really working hard to qualify the tool.

    所以說實話,是的,從歷史上看,我們總是期望邏輯是第一位的。這可能是一次非常驚險的事件。所以我今天不會打賭。但是記憶體和邏輯客戶都在努力使該工具合格。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you.

    知道了。謝謝。

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tammy Qui, Berenberg.

    塔米奎 (Tammy Qui),貝倫貝格 (Berenberg)。

  • Tammy Qui - Analyst

    Tammy Qui - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you for taking my question. So first one is on China. So my understanding is your customer list has been -- keeps expanding in China. Can you share if your percentage of China revenue from the big four chip-makers have been decreasing over time or not really changed? (multiple speakers)

    你好,謝謝你回答我的問題。第一個問題是關於中國的。因此我的理解是,你們在中國的客戶名單一直在擴大。您能否分享一下,貴公司從四大晶片製造商獲得的中國收入佔比是否一直在下降,還是實際上沒有變化?(多位發言者)

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Over time, that has decreased. Over time, that has decreased. Big four, you mean the -- sorry, you mean the domestic ones. All right. Sorry, sorry.

    隨著時間的推移,這種情況已經減少了。隨著時間的推移,這種情況已經減少了。“四大”,你的意思是——對不起,你的意思是國內的。好的。抱歉,抱歉。

  • Tammy Qui - Analyst

    Tammy Qui - Analyst

  • Domestic ones. Yes, domestic ones.

    國產的。是的,國產的。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • The sale in China has definitely become longer, right? So the number of players have become longer. That's for sure. But still a significant part of the shipments into China go to the large players. The sale has definitely become longer, but the number of tools that a sale takes is obviously smaller. So there is still quite a big part of the China sales going to the large players

    中國的銷售週期肯定變長了,對吧?因此玩家的數量變得更長了。這是肯定的。但進入中國的貨物仍有相當一部分流向了大型企業。銷售時間確實變得更長了,但銷售所需的工具數量顯然減少了。因此,中國市場的銷售額仍有相當一部分流向了大型企業

  • Tammy Qui - Analyst

    Tammy Qui - Analyst

  • Okay. I see. Okay, that's clear. And also, currently, your best [CPV] tools with China is 1970,1980 I. So assuming you can only ship 1950 or below, can China still make 28-nanometer from a technical perspective using multi-patterning based on 1950 or 1940?

    好的。我懂了。好的,很清楚。而且,目前,你們在中國最好的 [CPV] 工具是 1970、1980 I。因此,假設你們只能出貨 1950 年或更低版本的工具,從技術角度來看,中國是否還能使用基於 1950 年或 1940 年的多重圖案化技術製造 28 奈米?

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Yes. 28-nanometer for sure. I think that this has been done in the past by other customers. So I think, yes -- if you go back in history, when 28-nanometer was run by some of the non-Chinese customers, these were the tools basically we were looking at. So it's definitely possible, I would say, even smaller technology can be run with those two.

    是的。肯定是28奈米。我認為其他顧客過去也這樣做過。所以我認為,是的——如果你回顧歷史,當一些非中國客戶採用 28 奈米製程時,這些基本上就是我們所關注的工具。所以我想說,這絕對是可能的,甚至更小的技術也可以透過這兩者來運作。

  • Tammy Qui - Analyst

    Tammy Qui - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tim Schulze Melander, Redburn Atlantic.

    梅蘭德 (Tim Schulze Melander),Redburn Atlantic。

  • Tim Schulze Melander - Analyst

    Tim Schulze Melander - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks very much for taking my questions. Maybe just two quick ones. You commented on the gross margin guide for the coming quarter. Just in terms of the order backlog, could you give us some color what proportion is priced ex works? And maybe what proportion of the backlog is ASML responsible for custom fees, delivery duty paid, et cetera?

    你好,非常感謝您回答我的問題。也許只是兩個簡單的問題。您對下一季的毛利率指南發表了評論。就訂單積壓而言,您能否告訴我們有多少比例是出廠價?也許 ASML 需要負責積壓訂單中多大比例的關稅、交貨關稅等?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • In general, well, it depends from one country to the other, right, exactly how it works. But in general, we are the importers into the country. But of course, that is actually a bit irrelevant because, at the end of the day, it depends on the contractual agreements that we have with the customers how you pass on the -- how you pass on tariff increases there. And as I mentioned before, we believe that the cost of tariffs are going to give, we believe, that we should not -- we should not be the bear of that. There should be a fair allocation of that burden within the value chain.

    一般來說,這取決於各國的具體運作方式。但整體來說,我們是這個國家的進口商。但當然,這實際上有點無關緊要,因為歸根結底,這取決於我們與客戶達成的合約協議,即如何轉嫁——如何轉嫁關稅上漲。正如我之前提到的,我們認為關稅成本將會增加,我們認為,我們不應該——我們不應該承擔這一成本。應該在價值鏈中公平分配這一負擔。

  • Tim Schulze Melander - Analyst

    Tim Schulze Melander - Analyst

  • Very clear. And then just a follow-up. You talked about the EXE5200, I think, Christophe, you just mentioned that ASML is starting to ship this tool now. Maybe just looking at 2025, will we expect any of those tools to rev rec this year? Or is the high-NA rev rec entirely 5000? Thank you.

    非常清楚。然後只是後續行動。您談到了 EXE5200,我想,Christophe,您剛剛提到 ASML 現在開始發售這種工具。也許只看 2025 年,我們是否會期望其中任何一種工具在今年發揮作用?還是高 NA 轉速記錄完全是 5000?謝謝。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • We also expect 5200 rev rec in the year. Because remember, we said we are expecting five rev recs this year. We had two rev recs last year. And in total, as you know, we have five tools -- five 5000s, that we ship to customers. So that tells you that in the five that we talked about before for rev rec this year, there's also 5200 in there.

    我們也預計今年的銷量將達到 5200 轉。因為請記住,我們說過我們今年預計會有五次 rev rec。去年我們有兩次 rev rec。總的來說,正如您所知,我們有五種工具 - 五種 5000,我們會將其發送給客戶。所以這告訴你,我們之前談到的今年 rev rec 的五個中也有 5200 個。

  • Tim Schulze Melander - Analyst

    Tim Schulze Melander - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • CJ Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

    CJ Muse、康托·菲茨傑拉德。

  • CJ Muse - Analyst

    CJ Muse - Analyst

  • Yeah, good morning, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I guess there's obviously greater uncertainty around geopolitics. But in Q1, NVIDIA will surpass Apple as the number one customer at TSMC. And it's a very important milestone for HBC surpassing mobility. So with that as the backdrop, would love to hear the visibility you have today, the conversations you're having with your customers today as it pertains to 2026, 2027.

    是的,早上好,下午好。感謝您回答這個問題。我想地緣政治的不確定性顯然更大。但在第一季度,NVIDIA 將超越蘋果,成為台積電的第一大客戶。這對於HBC超越移動性來說是一個非常重要的里程碑。因此,以此為背景,我很想聽聽您今天的展望,以及您今天與客戶就 2026 年、2027 年進行的對話。

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Well, I think maybe I'll answer the first part on your comment. I think Roger said it already, I think (inaudible) there as well. I think the demand on AI is still very strong, and I think this has been confirmed by some of our customers, I think, by some of our customers' customers. Because when it comes to AI, at least in the next couple of years, you are looking at major investment basically. And that's why your reference to HBC is the right one.

    好吧,我想我可能會回答你評論的第一部分。我認為羅傑已經說過了,我認為(聽不清楚)也是如此。我認為對人工智慧的需求仍然非常強勁,我認為這已經得到了我們一些客戶的證實,我想,也得到了我們一些客戶的客戶的證實。因為說到人工智慧,至少在未來幾年內,你基本上會看到大量投資。這就是為什麼你對 HBC 的引用是正確的。

  • So because you are looking at major investment, investment has been committed, investment that a lot of companies believe they have to make in order to basically enter this AI race. I think the threshold to change its behavior is pretty high. And this is why -- this is what our customers are telling us. And that's also why we mentioned that, based on those conversations, we still see '25, '26 as growth years, that's largely driven by AI and by that dynamic.

    因此,由於您正在考慮重大投資,已經承諾的投資,許多公司認為他們必須進行投資才能基本上進入這場人工智慧競賽。我認為改變其行為的門檻相當高。這就是原因——這就是我們的客戶告訴我們的。這也是為什麼我們提到,基於這些對話,我們仍然認為 25、26 年是成長年,這主要是由人工智慧和這種動態所推動的。

  • Now '27 starts to be a bit further away, so you're asking us too much, I think to be able to answer basically what AI may look like in '27. But if you look at the next couple of years, so far, the commitment to the AI investments and, therefore, the commitment also to deliver the chips very high has been very solid.

    現在距離 27 年已經有點遠了,所以你問的太多了,我認為基本上能夠回答 27 年的人工智慧會是什麼樣子。但如果你展望未來幾年,到目前為止,對人工智慧投資的承諾以及提供高端晶片的承諾都非常堅定。

  • CJ Muse - Analyst

    CJ Muse - Analyst

  • Very helpful. I guess as a follow-up, and I guess to follow up on a prior question. At Capital Markets Day, the theme of replacing double-pattern with a single EUV step was a major focus. But my impression then was that there was real work to be done in terms of the throughput on EUV to do that.

    非常有幫助。我想作為後續問題,我想跟進之前的問題。在資本市場日,以單一 EUV 步驟取代雙重圖案這一主題成為主要關注點。但我當時的印像是,要實現這一目標,在 EUV 的吞吐量方面還有很多工作要做。

  • But given your commentary today in the video and on this call, it certainly sounds like that progression is happening sooner. So can you kind of speak to when you see that occurring? I believe you're talking about it happening first in DRAM, but would love to hear kind of how you see that playing out this year, next, and how we should be thinking about the overall implications to litho intensity. Thanks so much.

    但從您今天在視訊和電話中的評論來看,這種進展確實聽起來發生得更快。那麼當您看到這種情況發生時,您能談談嗎?我相信您說的是它首先發生在 DRAM 中,但我很想聽聽您如何看待今年、明年的發展,以及我們應該如何看待它對光刻強度的整體影響。非常感謝。

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Yes. I think I tried to explain that to Francois before. I think we will see that gradually. So I think, yes, it's a lot of work. But every step we make on productivity, every step we make also on the, I would say, maturity, the efficiency of the tool of our customer, bring basically the cost of technology of low-NA EUV down.

    是的。我想我以前曾嘗試向弗朗索瓦解釋過這一點。我認為我們會逐漸看到這一點。所以我認為,是的,這需要很多工作。但是,我們在生產力方面邁出的每一步,我們在成熟度、客戶工具效率方面邁出的每一步,基本上都降低了低 NA EUV 技術的成本。

  • And as I said a few times already today, single-exposed is so much better for our customer than multi-patterning when it comes to complexity, cycle time, et cetera, that the minute we are going to match basically the cost of multi-patterning with single-exposed, most really the customer will move.

    正如我今天已經說過幾次的那樣,對於我們的客戶來說,單次曝光在複雜性、週期時間等方面要比多重曝光好得多,一旦我們將多重曝光的成本與單次曝光的成本進行匹配,大多數客戶就會轉而購買。

  • So we'll see that gradually. That's also why at the Capital Markets Day we showed basically that we expect every node both for DRAM and logic to bring more EUV layers. I think it's a bit more, maybe spectacular on DRAM just because the number of multi-patterning in DRAM today is still higher than it is for logic. So this is where we see on the short term the -- maybe the fastest progress. But this is something we will experience for the few years to come.

    所以我們會逐漸看到這一點。這也是為什麼在資本市場日我們基本上表明我們期望 DRAM 和邏輯的每個節點都能帶來更多的 EUV 層。我認為 DRAM 的情況會更糟一些,甚至可能更嚴重,因為如今 DRAM 中的多重圖案數量仍然高於邏輯電路。所以這是我們在短期內看到的——也許是最快的進展。但這是我們未來幾年將會經歷的事情。

  • CJ Muse - Analyst

    CJ Muse - Analyst

  • Thanks so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephane Houri, ODDO BHF.

    Stephane Houri,ODDO BHF。

  • Stephane Houri - Analyst

    Stephane Houri - Analyst

  • Yes, good afternoon, everyone. I have a first question about the order volatility and maybe to understand better from you if you think that the uncertainty around the tariffs in Q1 already had an impact on your orders or not at all.

    是的,大家下午好。我的第一個問題是關於訂單波動的,也許我想更好地了解您是否認為第一季關稅的不確定性已經對您的訂單產生了影響,或者根本沒有影響。

  • And the second question is about the coverage of the middle of the range for 2025. Basically, last quarter, you said that your middle of the range was covered for EUV. So the follow-up question is what about the EUV, which is supposed to grow pretty strongly, (technical difficulty) Thank you.

    第二個問題是關於2025年中間範圍的覆蓋範圍。基本上,上個季度,您說您的中間範圍已涵蓋 EUV。所以後續的問題是EUV怎麼樣?它應該會成長相當強勁,(技術難度)謝謝。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • So let's start with that question. So you're right, we said last time that for the midpoint of the range, we are fully covered with EUV. For the midpoint of the range, when it comes to Deep UV, we're covered approximately 90%. So nearly there, which, given order lead times, I think it's a very good place to be in.

    那我們就從這個問題開始吧。所以你是對的,我們上次說過,對於範圍的中點,我們已經完全覆蓋了 EUV。對於範圍的中間點,當談到深紫外線時,我們覆蓋了大約 90%。差不多了,考慮到訂單交付週期,我認為這是一個非常好的水平。

  • Back to your first question, order volatility. I think we go back to what we said about that before. I think order volatility and the lumpiness of order intake is what we've seen, not just in this environment, but what we've seen for the past couple of years. And that is, I think, first and foremost, driven by the fact that a customer that puts in a very, very significant order in one quarter has to go through a lot of governance steps in order to get that order approved and is, therefore, unlikely to then, the quarter after, come back.

    回到您的第一個問題,訂單波動性。我想我們應該回顧一下之前討論過的內容。我認為訂單波動和訂單量不穩定是我們所看到的,不僅僅是在這種環境下,而且在過去幾年裡我們也看到了這種情況。我認為,首先也是最重要的原因是,如果一個客戶在一個季度內下了一筆非常大的訂單,那麼他必須經過很多治理步驟才能獲得訂單批准,因此,在接下來的一個季度,他不太可能再回來。

  • So to the extent that you have major order intake as we had it, for instance, in Q4, that has a bearing on the order intake in the quarter graph. I think that's erratic pattern I think we've seen in the past couple of years.

    因此,如果您在第四季度有大量訂單,那麼這對季度圖表中的訂單量有影響。我認為這是我們在過去幾年中看到的不穩定模式。

  • So that's why we said it is not necessarily a good proxy for the business momentum. And so therefore, I think that's what you're looking at here, much rather than customers taking already a view on what tariff means for their business. I don't think you can read that from this order book.

    這就是為什麼我們說它不一定是衡量業務動能的良好指標。因此,我認為這就是您在這裡所關注的,而不是客戶已經對關稅對其業務意義的看法。我認為您無法從這本訂單簿上讀出這些內容。

  • Stephane Houri - Analyst

    Stephane Houri - Analyst

  • Okay. Understood. Thank you very much.

    好的。明白了。非常感謝。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Gardiner, Citi.

    花旗銀行的安德魯‧加德納 (Andrew Gardiner)。

  • Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

    Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

  • Thank you very much for taking the question. Another one on tariffs. I wanted to take the conversation in a slightly different direction. On one hand, the US government is trying to encourage reassuring of semiconductor manufacturing in the US and yet in achieving some of those goals, particularly with TSMC and a quite high-profile announcement earlier this year, they're now turning around and saying, well, yes, we'd like you to do that, but we're also going to slap tariffs on some of the tools that you need in order to make that happen. Does strike me as at least a little bit inconsistent.

    非常感謝您回答這個問題。另一個是關於關稅的。我想讓談話稍微轉向不同的方向。一方面,美國政府正試圖鼓勵人們對美國的半導體製造業放心,然而在實現其中一些目標時,特別是台積電今年早些時候發布的一個相當高調的聲明,他們現在卻轉過身說,好吧,是的,我們希望你這樣做,但我們也將對實現這一目標所需的一些工具徵收關稅。在我看來至少有一點不一致。

  • I was wondering about your position on that in Washington and perhaps, even more importantly, the position of your customers. I can imagine that they're not too pleased by it. I was just wondering whether -- how can the industry sort of push back or explain that there is no US litho industry, that ship sailed over 40 years ago, and really we need these tools and we need some relief under this. It just doesn't make sense. Are those arguments being made? Is it too sensitive a topic to be made? Where are we on that? Thank you.

    我想知道您在華盛頓對此持什麼立場,或許更重要的是,您的客戶的立場。我可以想像他們對此並不太高興。我只是想知道——該行業如何反擊或解釋美國光刻行業根本不存在,這艘船 40 多年前就啟航了,我們真的需要這些工具,我們需要一些緩解。這根本說不通。這些論點正在被提出嗎?這個話題是否太敏感,不宜公開?我們目前處於什麼階段?謝謝。

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Well, I think, Andrew, we understand your comments. It's not the first time we hear it. And that might be the reason why, as you know, since a couple of days, this industry or a significant part of the products within this industry are now not put on -- are now exempt from tariffs. But at the same time, US administration has also said, we're reviewing the entire ecosystem to figure out how to deal with this.

    好吧,安德魯,我想我們理解你的評論。這不是我們第一次聽到這個消息。這可能就是為什麼,正如你所知,幾天以來,這個行業或這個行業中的大部分產品現在不再徵收關稅。但同時,美國政府也表示,我們正在審查整個生態系統,以找出如何應對這個問題。

  • I think it is this complexity that is being recognized. I think it's being recognized by players such as ourselves. I think it's being recognized by customers, I think is being recognized by the US administration. And that's why I think they've said they need a bit more time to understand how to do this and how they can achieve the objective with more onshoring of chip manufacturing in the United States and how they can reconcile that with this. I think that's the background of the of the delay that we now see and of the anticipated and announced review of this ecosystem.

    我認為人們已經認識到了這種複雜性。我認為我們這樣的玩家已經認識到了這一點。我認為它已經得到了客戶的認可,也得到了美國政府的認可。這就是為什麼我認為他們說他們需要更多的時間來了解如何做到這一點,如何透過在美國更多地實現晶片製造的本土化來實現這一目標,以及如何實現這一目標。我認為這就是我們現在看到的延遲以及預期和宣布的對該生態系統的審查的背景。

  • Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

    Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

  • Okay. Understood. Thank you. And just a quick follow-up on the high-NA commentary, Christophe, you've talked about the different phases. Clearly, your book, you've had sort of long-term backlog to achieve Phase 1. Would you say that Phase 2 is also represented in the backlog, and therefore, really incremental orders that come are only necessary for the Phase 3, sort of '27, '28 production ramp?

    好的。明白了。謝謝。克里斯托夫,我來快速跟進一下高 NA 評論,您談到了不同的階段。顯然,您的書,為了實現第一階段,您已經積壓了很長時間。您是否認為第二階段也體現在積壓訂單中,因此,真正增量的訂單僅對第三階段(即 27、28 年的生產爬坡)才是必要的?

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Yes. I think we discussed that last quarter. I think we mentioned several times that we have double-digit booking for high-NA. So that's definitely enough to cover basically both Phase 1 and Phase 2. And the order for phase three, I would say, come -- will come when the level of confidence has achieved a place where the tool will be for sure used in HVM. So that can happen in Phase 1, but most probably we will see td

    是的。我想我們上個季度討論過這個問題。我想我們多次提到過,我們的高 NA 預訂量達到兩位數。所以這絕對足以涵蓋第一階段和第二階段。我想說的是,第三階段的命令將在信心水平達到一定水平時到來,屆時該工具肯定會在 HVM 中使用。所以這可能在第一階段發生,但最有可能的是,我們會看到 td

  • Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

    Andrew Gardiner - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Jim Kavanagh - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Jim Kavanagh - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Okay. So we have time for one last question. If you were unable to get through on this call through the questions, please feel free to contact ASML Investor Relations with your question.

    好的。所以我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。如果您無法在本次電話會議中回答問題,請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部提出您的問題。

  • Now operator, may we have the last caller, please?

    接線生,請問我們可以接聽最後一位來電嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sandeep Deshpande, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

  • Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst

    Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst

  • Yeah, hi, thanks for squeezing me in. My question is, at this time, in April 2024, how was your order book and backlog looking for 2025? And how does the order book and backlog for 2026 look at this time of the year versus 2024?

    是的,嗨,謝謝你邀請我。我的問題是,此時,也就是 2024 年 4 月,您 2025 年的訂單和積壓訂單狀況如何?與 2024 年相比,2026 年的訂單和積壓情況如何?

  • Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

    Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management

  • Goodness me, Sandeep. (Laughter) I'm not into the history lesson here. I think I made a comment at the -- at sort of one of the earlier questions. I think it's not too difficult, I think, to figure out where our order book is for this -- our total order book is. And I also believe it's not too difficult to figure out what the component is at the midpoint of demand beyond 2026. I think you're able to figure that out. And then you will see that there is quite some orders already in there for the period beyond 2025.

    天哪,桑迪普。(笑聲)我對這裡的歷史課不感興趣。我想我之前對其中一個問題發表了評論。我認為弄清楚我們的訂單簿在哪裡——我們的總訂單簿在哪裡——並不太難。而且我還認為,要弄清楚 2026 年以後需求中點的組成部分是什麼並不太難。我想你能夠解決這個問題。然後你會發現,2025 年以後的訂單已經相當多了。

  • So I think there is a really good start for the year '26, but we refrain from making any further comments on what we think 2026 looks like. And we also refrain from saying, and therefore, this is exactly the number that you need for next year. I think we've indicated how we look at bookings. And therefore, I think it would not be appropriate for us to give further commentary on what bookings you still need in order to get to that whatever midpoint is for 2026.

    因此,我認為 2026 年的開局確實很好,但我們不會對 2026 年的前景發表進一步的評論。我們也不會說,因此,這正是你們明年所需要的數字。我想我們已經表明了我們如何看待預訂。因此,我認為我們不宜進一步評論您仍需要哪些預訂才能達到 2026 年的中點。

  • Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst

    Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst

  • Thank you. And my quick follow-up, to Christophe, on high-NA. You talked about the Phase 3. Do you expect to start getting these Phase 3 high-NA orders by the end of this year or the second half of this year?

    謝謝。我對 Christophe 就高 NA 問題進行了快速跟進。您談到了第三階段。您是否預計將在今年年底或今年下半年開始獲得這些第 3 階段高 NA 訂單?

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Not too many. We could have a few, but I think that's still too early because, remember, we're still mostly in Phase 1, we're still installing some of the tools. So this will mostly take some more time.

    不算太多。我們可能有幾個,但我認為這還為時過早,因為請記住,我們仍然處於第一階段,我們仍在安裝一些工具。所以這通常需要更多時間。

  • Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst

    Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Jim Kavanagh - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Jim Kavanagh - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Okay. On behalf of ASML, I would like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would much appreciate it. Thank you.

    好的。我謹代表 ASML 感謝大家今天的參加。接線員,如果您能正式結束通話,我將非常感激。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes the ASML 2025 first quarter financial results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。ASML 2025 年第一季財務業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。

相關新聞