ASML 投資者關係副總裁歡迎與會者參加電話會議,討論該公司 2024 年第二季業績。儘管宏觀經濟存在不確定性,但該公司的季度業績表現強勁,銷售額和獲利能力均高於預期。他們提供了財務成就、第三季指導以及 2025 年的預期。
ASML 預計將實現 2025 年的收入目標,並計劃增加 EUV 工具和高 NA 工具的產能。該公司專注於解決半導體產業微縮光刻技術的挑戰,並對長期成長機會保持信心。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2024 second quarter financial results conference call on July 17, 2024. (Operator Instructions) please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead.
美好的一天,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2024 年 7 月 17 日召開的 ASML 2024 年第二季財務業績電話會議。我現在想將電話會議轉給斯基普·米勒先生。請繼續。
Skip Miller - Head - Investor Relations Worldwide
Skip Miller - Head - Investor Relations Worldwide
Thank you, operator. Welcome everyone, this is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call, our ASML CEO, Christophe Fouquet; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2024 second quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes and questions will be taken in the order they are received. This call will also be broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.
謝謝你,接線生。歡迎大家,我是 ASML 投資人關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的 ASML 執行長 Christophe Fouquet;和我們的財務長羅傑·達森。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2024 年第二季業績。這次電話會議的時長為 60 分鐘,問題將按照收到的順序進行回答。此次電話會議也將透過網路 asml.com 進行現場直播。本次電話會議結束後不久,我們的網站上將提供管理層開場白和電話會議重播的記錄。
Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
在我們開始之前,我想提醒聽眾,管理層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。對於風險因素的討論,我鼓勵您查看今天的新聞稿和演示文稿中包含的安全港聲明,該聲明可以在我們的網站asml.com 上找到,也可以在ASML 的20-F 表格年度報告以及向在美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Christophe Fouquet, for a brief introduction.
說到這裡,我想將電話轉給 Christophe Fouquet,他會做一個簡短的介紹。
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2024 results conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the second quarter 2024, as well as provide our view of the coming quarter. Roger, will start with a review of our second quarter 2024 financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook. I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment. (technical difficulty) Roger?
謝謝你,斯基普。歡迎大家,感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第二季業績電話會議。在我們開始問答環節之前,羅傑和我想對 2024 年第二季度進行概述和一些評論,並提供我們對下一季的看法。 Roger 將首先回顧我們 2024 年第二季的財務業績,並對我們的短期前景進行補充評論。我將透過對當前商業環境的一些補充評論來完成介紹。 (技術難度)羅傑?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Thank you, Christophe, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the second quarter 2024 financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the third quarter of 2024. Let me start with our second quarter accomplishments. Total net sales came in at EUR6.2 billion, which is just above guidance. Net system sales of EUR4.8 billion, which is made up of EUR1.5 billion of EUV sales and EUR3.3 billion of non-EUV sales.
謝謝克里斯托夫,歡迎大家。我將首先回顧 2024 年第二季的財務成就,然後提供 2024 年第三季的指導。總淨銷售額為 62 億歐元,略高於預期。系統淨銷售額為 48 億歐元,其中包括 15 億歐元的 EUV 銷售額和 33 億歐元的非 EUV 銷售額。
Net system sales was driven by logic at 54% with the remaining 46% coming from Memory. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR1.48 billion, slightly higher than guidance. Gross margin for the quarter came in at 51.5%, which was above our guidance, primarily driven by more immersion systems than planned.
系統淨銷售額的 54% 是由邏輯驅動的,其餘 46% 來自記憶體。本季已安裝基礎管理銷售額為 14.8 億歐元,略高於指引值。本季毛利率為 51.5%,高於我們的指導,主要是由於沉浸式系統數量超出計劃。
On operating expenses R&D expenses came in slightly above guidance at EUR1.1 billion due to higher R&D expense regarding metrology and inspection, while SG&A expense came in slightly below our guidance at EUR277 million as a result of lower IT spend. Net income in Q2 was EUR1.6 billion, representing 25.3% of total net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR4.01.
在營運費用方面,由於計量和檢驗方面的研發費用較高,研發費用略高於指導值 11 億歐元,而由於 IT 支出減少,SG&A 費用略低於我們的指導值 2.77 億歐元。第二季淨利為 16 億歐元,佔總淨銷售額的 25.3%,每股收益為 4.01 歐元。
Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the second quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR5.0 billion. We ended Q2 with free cash flow of EUR386 million, which is an improvement relative to last quarter. However, as mentioned, last quarter, there continues to be pressure on free cash flow as we provide some support for our customers and operated higher inventory levels.
談到資產負債表,第二季末我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資達到 50 億歐元。第二季結束時,我們的自由現金流為 3.86 億歐元,較上季有所改善。然而,如前所述,上季度,由於我們為客戶提供了一些支持並維持了較高的庫存水平,自由現金流仍然面臨壓力。
The latter being a result of the increased material intake, including High-NA as part of our planned capacity ramp in preparation for a strong demand next year. We expect to gradually return to normal cash conversion levels as the industry continues to recover.
後者是材料攝取量增加的結果,其中包括高NA,作為我們計劃產能提升的一部分,為明年的強勁需求做準備。我們預計隨著行業的持續復甦,現金轉換將逐漸恢復到正常水平。
Moving to the order book, Q2 net system bookings came in at EUR5.6 billion, which is made up of EUR2.5 billion of EUV bookings and EUR3.1 billion of non-EUV bookings. Net system bookings in the quarter were mainly driven by logic at 73% and Memory, the remaining 27% of the bookings. At the end of Q2 2024, we finished with a backlog of around EUR39 billion.
訂單方面,第二季系統淨預訂量為 56 億歐元,其中包括 25 億歐元的 EUV 預訂和 31 億歐元的非 EUV 預訂。本季的淨系統預訂量主要由邏輯驅動(佔預訂量的 73%)和記憶體(佔剩餘預訂量的 27%)推動。截至 2024 年第二季末,我們的積壓訂單約為 390 億歐元。
With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the third quarter of 2024. We expect Q3 total net sales to be between EUR6.7 billion and EUR7.3 billion. We expect our Q3 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR1.4 billion, gross margin for Q3 is expected to be between 50% and 51%. We still expect a slightly lower gross margin for the full year 2024 compared to 2023. Although margins for the second half of the year are expected to be positively impacted by higher volumes and more favorable EUV Low NA mix, we expect this to be offset by increased High NA costs relative to the first half of the year.
接下來,我想談談我們對 2024 年第三季的預期。我們預計第三季安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 14 億歐元,第三季毛利率預計在 50% 至 51% 之間。我們仍預計 2024 年全年的毛利率將略低於 2023 年。比,高NA 成本增加。
Expected R&D expenses for Q3 are around EUR1.1 billion, and SG&A is expected to be around EUR295 million. Our estimated 2024 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 16%, 17%. In Q2, ASML paid a final dividend of EUR1.75 per ordinary share. Together with the interim dividend paid in Q2 in 2023 and 2024, this resulted in a total dividend for 2023 of EUR6.10 per ordinary share. The first quarterly interim dividend over 2024 will be one point EUR1.52 per ordinary share and will be made payable on August 7, 2024. In Q2 2024, we purchased 106,000 shares for a total amount of EUR96 million.
第三季的研發費用預計約為 11 億歐元,SG&A 預計約 2.95 億歐元。我們預計2024年年化有效稅率預計在16%至17%之間。第二季度,ASML 支付了每股普通股 1.75 歐元的末期股息。加上 2023 年和 2024 年第二季支付的中期股息,2023 年的股息總額為每股普通股 6.10 歐元。 2024 年第一季中期股息將為每股普通股 1.52 歐元,將於 2024 年 8 月 7 日支付。
With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Christophe.
說到這裡,我想把電話轉回克里斯托夫。
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, a good quarter with sales and profitability above guidance. Although macro uncertainty remains, overall semiconductor industry levels continued to improve, trending towards more healthy levels. We also see continued improvement in this geography tools utilization level at both logic and memory customers, all in line with the industry's continued recovery from the downturn.
謝謝你,羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的那樣,這是一個良好的季度,銷售額和獲利能力均高於預期。儘管宏觀不確定性依然存在,但半導體產業整體水準持續改善,趨向更健康的水準。我們也看到邏輯和記憶體客戶的地理工具利用率持續提高,所有這些都符合產業從低迷中持續復甦的趨勢。
Our outlook for the full year is unchanged, with revenue expected to be similar to last year. We currently see strong developments in AI driving most of the industry recovery and growth ahead of other end market segments. We still expect a stronger second half relative to the first half of the year. Logic customers continue to digest the significant capacity additions made over the past year. With this addition, we see lower revenue from logic this year relative to last year.
我們對全年的展望保持不變,收入預計與去年相似。目前,我們看到人工智慧的強勁發展推動了大部分產業的復甦和成長,領先其他終端細分市場。我們仍然預計下半年將比上半年更加強勁。 Logic 客戶繼續消化過去一年大幅增加的產能。加上這一點,我們發現今年的邏輯收入相對於去年有所下降。
In memory, demand is primarily driven by DRAM technology node transitions in support of advanced memories such as DDR5 and HBM. In support of this transition, we expect growth in revenue from Memory this year relative to 2023. For our installed base business, we continue to expect a similar level of revenue compared to last year. As the recovery becomes more clear this year, customer may look to upgrade their system in preparation for 2025.
在記憶體方面,需求主要由 DRAM 技術節點轉變驅動,以支援 DDR5 和 HBM 等先進記憶體。為了支持這項轉型,我們預計今年記憶體收入將比 2023 年有所成長。隨著今年的復甦變得更加明顯,客戶可能會考慮升級其係統,為 2025 年做好準備。
Turning to our businesses, we expect EUV revenue growth in 2024, we plan to recognize revenue on a similar number of EUV system as 2023, with expected revenue from one to two High-NA system. On our Low-NA EUV system, additional NXE:3800E system this quarter as we continue to ramp production. As customers transition to advanced nodes in both Logic and Memory, we expect the majority of shipments in the second half of the year to be NXE:3800E system.
談到我們的業務,我們預計 2024 年 EUV 收入將成長,我們計劃在與 2023 年類似數量的 EUV 系統上確認收入,預計收入從一到兩個 High-NA 系統。在我們的低數值孔徑 EUV 系統上,隨著我們繼續提高產量,本季將增加 NXE:3800E 系統。隨著客戶向邏輯和記憶體的高階節點過渡,我們預計今年下半年的大部分出貨量將是 NXE:3800E 系統。
Regarding High-NA, we shipped the second system this quarter and it is currently under installation. The first system shipped to a customer is running qualification wafers. Overall, the interest is high, with EUV customers now using our High-NA system in the joint ASML-Imec demo lab in Veldhoven for their initial development.
關於 High-NA,我們本季出貨了第二個系統,目前正在安裝中。交付給客戶的第一個系統正在運行合格晶圓。總體而言,人們的興趣很高,EUV 客戶現在在 Veldhoven 的 ASML-Imec 聯合演示實驗室中使用我們的 High-NA 系統進行初步開發。
We have already exposed wafer for multiple Logic and Memory customer and have now achieved the emerging resolution specification of eight nanometer. High-NA will enable an almost three times increase in transistor density relative to the Low NA system. So all in all, good momentum on High-NA and progressing well against customer expectations.
我們已經為多個邏輯和記憶體客戶曝光了晶圓,現在已經實現了新興的八奈米解析度規格。相對於低數值孔徑系統,高數值孔徑將使電晶體密度增加近三倍。總而言之,High-NA 勢頭良好,進展順利,符合客戶期望。
We expect our non-EUV business to be down in 2024, primarily driven by lower immersion system sales relative to 2023. As we have stated over the last few quarters, we view 2024 as a transition year and continue to make investments this year, both in capacity ramp and in technology to be ready for future demand.
我們預計我們的非EUV 業務將在2024 年下降,這主要是由於浸入式系統銷售額相對2023 年有所下降。將繼續在今年進行投資產能提升和技術方面為未來需求做好準備。
While the slope of the industry recovery is still uncertain based on discussion with our customer and supported by our strong backlog, we expect 2025 to be a strong year driven by a number of factors as mentioned last quarter. First, the secular growth driver in semiconductor end markets, which we have previously discussed, such as energy transition, electrification and AI are still very much intact.
雖然根據與客戶的討論以及我們大量積壓訂單的支持,行業復甦的斜率仍不確定,但我們預計 2025 年將是由上季度提到的多種因素推動的強勁一年。首先,我們之前討論過的半導體終端市場的長期成長動力,例如能源轉型、電氣化和人工智慧仍然完好無損。
The expanding application space, along with increasing the progress on future technology nodes drives demand for both advanced and mature nodes. Second, the industry expects to be in a cyclical upturn in 2025. And last, as mentioned earlier, we need to prepare for a number of new fabs that are being built across the globe. In some instances, clearly supported by several government incentive plans. These fabs are spread geographically and are strategic for our customers. They are all scheduled to take out tools.
不斷擴大的應用空間以及未來技術節點的不斷進步推動了對先進和成熟節點的需求。其次,預計2025年產業將出現週期性改善。在某些情況下,得到了多項政府激勵計劃的明確支持。這些晶圓廠分佈廣泛,對我們的客戶具有戰略意義。他們都按計劃拿出工具。
It is essential that we keep our focus on the future and build capacity in preparation for future long-term growth as we discussed in the market scenario for 2025 and 2030 during our Investor Day in November 2022. We plan to update all of you during our Investor Day this year on November 14, 2024. In summary, although there is near term uncertainty, we remain confident in our long-term growth opportunity.
正如我們在2022 年11 月投資者日期間討論的2025 年和2030 年市場情景中所討論的那樣,我們必須關注未來並建立能力,為未來的長期成長做好準備。日期間向大家通報最新情況。
With that, we will be happy to take your questions.
這樣,我們將很樂意回答您的問題。
Skip Miller - Head - Investor Relations Worldwide
Skip Miller - Head - Investor Relations Worldwide
Thank you, Roger and Christophe. (Event Instructions) Now operator, could we have your final instructions and the first question, please.
謝謝你們,羅傑和克里斯托夫。 (活動說明)現在,接線員,請告訴我們您的最後說明和第一個問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.
(操作員說明)Krish Sankar,TD Cowen。
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Hi, thanks for taking my question. Christophe, Roger, the first question is on the bookings composition in the outlook. In the booking for EUV in the EUR2.5 billion, whether any two nanometer orders from foundry customers that you said you should expect in Q2 or Q3, any High-NA in the mix? And based on the bookings momentum and backlog, how do you think about calendar '25 revenues? Do you think it could be towards the upper end of the EUR30 billion to EUR40 billion range. And then I had a quick follow-up.
您好,感謝您提出我的問題。 Christophe、Roger,第一個問題是關於前景中的預訂構成。在 25 億歐元的 EUV 訂單中,您所說的第二季或第三季是否有兩個來自代工客戶的奈米訂單,其中是否有任何高數值孔徑訂單?根據預訂勢頭和積壓訂單,您如何看待 '25 日曆年的收入?您認為可能會達到 300 億歐元至 400 億歐元範圍的上限嗎?然後我進行了快速跟進。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
So on the on the bookings, as you would have seen in the bookings mix, 73% of the of the bookings is related to -- was related to Logic. So I think that gives you pretty strong indication [who the] buyers are and who is in the mix. So I think it is reasonable to assume that's the foundry business at two nanometer is in the books, so that's one.
因此,在預訂方面,正如您在預訂組合中看到的那樣,73% 的預訂與 Logic 有關。所以我認為這給了你非常有力的指示[誰是]買家以及誰在其中。因此,我認為可以合理地假設兩納米的代工業務已在書中,所以這就是其中之一。
High-NA is not in there. So no High-NA bookings in this quarter. So everything you see there on EUV is related to Low-NA. As it relates to 2025, Krish, very consistent -- I think in our in our messaging, and that's what we see. We confirm what we said in November of 2022, which is we expect 2025 to be between EUR30 billion and EUR40 billion. We've also said it's at the low point of that guidance.
高NA不在那裡。因此,本季度沒有高 NA 預訂。所以你在 EUV 上看到的一切都與低數值孔徑有關。當它涉及到 2025 年時,Krish 非常一致——我認為在我們的訊息中,這就是我們所看到的。我們確認了我們在 2022 年 11 月所說的,即我們預計 2025 年將在 300 億至 400 億歐元之間。我們也說過,目前正處於該指引的最低點。
[That] quarter we've given you a bit of an a bit of an understanding of what it takes to be fully booked at the beginning of 2025 for the midpoint of the range. I think you can conclude with the bookings number that we reported in that were nicely on track. With that we still confirm that our expectation is between EUR40 billion and EUR40 billion and are not going to be more specific than what we've been so far.
[那個]季度,我們已經讓您稍微了解瞭如何才能在 2025 年初達到該範圍的中點被訂滿。我認為您可以根據我們報告的預訂數量得出結論,該數量進展順利。儘管如此,我們仍然確認我們的預期在 400 億歐元到 400 億歐元之間,並且不會比我們迄今為止的預期更具體。
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Got it. (multiple speakers)
知道了。 (多個發言者)
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Krish, one more thing, and Christophe, was very clear in his comments. I think in the Capital Markets Day, that we're going to have in November of 2024. That's going to be the point in time where we are going to be more specific. So that's where we will be more specific as to what we expect for 2025. That's when we're going to narrow the guidance, but we're not going to do that before.
克里斯托夫,還有一件事,他的評論非常明確。我認為我們將在 2024 年 11 月舉行資本市場日。因此,我們將更具體地說明 2025 年的預期。
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Thanks, Roger. Thanks a lot for that amazing color. And then a quick follow-up for Christophe. And obviously the article today about the US administration looking to impose some severe trade restrictions using the foreign direct product rule on China shipments. I know obviously you folks have good citizens follow the rules, had a curious, what do you think about the potential implications for ASML from here? How much more severe could it be given the fact that you do have a pretty high exposure to China, if you can give some color or some bookends around that, that would be very helpful. Thank you.
謝謝,羅傑。非常感謝那令人驚嘆的顏色。然後是克里斯托夫的快速跟進。顯然,今天的文章是關於美國政府希望利用外國直接產品規則對中國出口實施一些嚴格的貿易限制。我知道顯然你們都是遵守規則的好公民,我很好奇,你們認為這對 ASML 的潛在影響是什麼?考慮到你對中國的了解相當高,情況會更嚴重嗎?謝謝。
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Well, I think first (technical difficulty) we don't comment on rumors and there's a lot of rumors on that topic. So on that topic, we comment even less, I would say. So that's the first thing. I think we had discussion on China in the past together. And I think the point Roger and I have made in the last few quarters, which is still valid, is before you look at China, I think you have to look at the opportunity we see on the mature semiconductor market.
好吧,我認為首先(技術難度)我們不會對謠言發表評論,而且關於這個主題有很多謠言。所以我想說,在這個主題上,我們的評論甚至更少。這是第一件事。我想我們過去曾一起討論過中國問題。我認為羅傑和我在過去幾季提出的觀點仍然有效,那就是在你看中國之前,我認為你必須看看我們在成熟的半導體市場上看到的機會。
That opportunity was defined as being significant in our Capital Market Day in November 2022. We still believe it's significant. In 2023, 2024, China has been investing a large part of this market. And this is why I think our revenue on China has been high.
這個機會在 2022 年 11 月的資本市場日被定義為重要。 2023年、2024年,中國已經投資了這個市場的很大一部分。這就是為什麼我認為我們在中國的收入一直很高。
Moving forward, we still believe that this market is needed and therefore that the capacity (technical difficulty) is coming out of somewhere. So that's a bit the position we take on that discussion. I think we always look at the end market, at what's the need of the end market. I think we are a bit less sensitive on where that capacity may be produced.
展望未來,我們仍然相信這個市場是必要的,因此容量(技術難度)正在某個地方出現。這就是我們在討論中所採取的立場。我認為我們總是關注終端市場,並關注終端市場的需求是什麼。我認為我們對產能的來源較不敏感。
Operator
Operator
Alexander Duval, Goldman Sachs.
亞歷山大杜瓦爾,高盛。
Alexander Duval - Analyst
Alexander Duval - Analyst
Yeah. Thanks for the question. You confirmed today that it's fair to assume that a Logic customer ordered on 2-nanometer this quarter. But clearly for such a large node, one would expect to see more order flow. So wonder to what extent it's fair to assume one should expect more EUV orders from them in the coming quarters. And as a quick follow-up, you mentioned in your prepared remarks that AI is driving most of the industry's recovering growth. Are you able to decompose what specifically is driving this for ASML? To what extent, do you see litho needs being driven by high bandwidth memory, data center processing or edge AI? Is there any area that's surprising to the upside? Many thanks.
是的。謝謝你的提問。您今天確認,可以合理地假設 Logic 客戶本季訂購了 2 奈米晶片。但顯然對於如此大的節點,人們期望看到更多的訂單流。因此,想知道在未來幾季中,人們應該期望他們獲得更多 EUV 訂單的假設在多大程度上是公平的。作為快速跟進,您在準備好的演講中提到人工智慧正在推動該行業的大部分復甦成長。您能分解一下到底是什麼推動了 ASML 的發展嗎?您認為光刻需求在多大程度上是由高頻寬記憶體、資料中心處理或邊緣人工智慧驅動的?有沒有什麼領域的上漲令人驚訝?非常感謝。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
It's clear I think that if you look at the orders data that came in and that there is a healthy start, I would say, for the N2 foundry business, I think, it's a healthy start. It's also clear that obviously not the full capacity that you would need for this node is in there. But that is pretty logical, right?
很明顯,我認為如果你看看收到的訂單數據,你會發現這是一個健康的開始,我想說,對於 N2 代工業務來說,我認為這是一個健康的開始。同樣清楚的是,顯然該節點並不具備您所需的全部容量。但這很合乎邏輯,對吧?
I mean, obviously, this customer is going to ramp, and there you will see a gradual buildup, and that will -- you will also see, at some stage, you will see additional orders coming in for that ramp, exactly what that buildup will be you might want to raise that question by tomorrow. And maybe the second part, I think, is for you Christophe.
我的意思是,很明顯,這個客戶將會增加,你會看到逐漸增加,而且你還會看到,在某個階段,你會看到額外的訂單進入該增加,正是這種增加您可能想在明天之前提出這個問題。我想,也許第二部分是給你的,克里斯托夫。
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Yeah, I think so -- I think I said it in my comment initially. I think we've been also consistent there. So I think AI is driving, I would say, right now, the biggest part of the recovery. This is true for logic. This is true for memory. Roger just commented on Logic. I think you know that for high bandwidth memory, those products drive more demand, more wafer demand, because we are looking basically at a higher density of DRAM on those products and we look at something that, of course, will take course over several months. So we started to see the positive effect of that for 2025. We expect that to continue into 2026, both for memory and for logic.
是的,我想是的——我想我最初在評論中說過。我認為我們在這方面也一直保持一致。所以我認為人工智慧目前正在推動經濟復甦的最大部分。這對於邏輯來說是正確的。對於記憶來說也是如此。羅傑剛剛評論了邏輯。我想你知道,對於高頻寬內存,這些產品推動了更多的需求、更多的晶圓需求,因為我們基本上著眼於這些產品上更高密度的DRAM,當然,我們著眼於幾個月的時間。因此,我們開始看到 2025 年的正面影響。
And at some point of time, also mentioned that maybe the other segments are a bit behind in terms of recovery. So a lot of the capacity today, either logic or DRAM capacity, will be (technical difficulty) those AI product. As the other segments recover, we also expect potentially some capacity to be needed there. And that's also why we believe overall, that 2025 will be a strong year. And I think what everyone is trying to understand, what you try to understand is exactly the pace of it that I think we don't know exactly. But the fundamentals, I would say, on AI and I think the recovery in general are strong from our point of view.
在某個時候,也提到其他細分市場在復甦方面可能有點落後。所以今天的很多容量,無論是邏輯容量還是DRAM容量,都將是(技術難度)那些AI產品。隨著其他細分市場的復甦,我們也預期那裡可能需要一些產能。這也是我們總體上相信 2025 年將是強勁的一年的原因。我認為每個人都試圖理解的,你試圖理解的正是我認為我們並不確切知道的它的節奏。但我想說的是,從我們的角度來看,人工智慧的基本面和整體復甦勢頭強勁。
Operator
Operator
Tammy Qiu, Berenberg.
邱塔米,貝倫貝格。
Tammy Qiu - Analyst
Tammy Qiu - Analyst
Hi. Thank you for taking my question. So, first one on the leading-edge 2-nanometer ramp-up phase. So you mentioned that they are starting to ramp-up their leading-edge 2-nanometer capacity already or preparing for that. Do you notice anything in this quarter suggesting that they are pulling in the ramp-up phase or everything is as planned?
你好。感謝您回答我的問題。因此,這是前沿 2 奈米加速階段的第一個。所以你提到他們已經開始提高其領先的 2 奈米產能或為此做準備。您是否注意到本季度有任何跡象表明他們正在進入加速階段或一切都按計劃進行?
And the second question I have is regarding the DRAM adoption of more EUV layers as well as High NA EUV, how do you see the layer count change over the next few generations? Are we going to see similar level of growth of layers as we have seen over the past two years or it will gradually slow down? If there is a number you can share, it will be great. Thank you.
我的第二個問題是關於 DRAM 採用更多 EUV 層以及高 NA EUV,您如何看待未來幾代的層數變化?我們是否會看到與過去兩年類似的蛋雞增長水平,還是會逐漸放緩?如果有一個數字可以分享,那就太好了。謝謝。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
I'll take the first part, Christophe, and you can take the second. But as it comes to, do you notice any pull in there, I think the foundry customer has indicated that they're looking at N2 in the second half of 2025. I think you're typically, for this customer, looking at a lead time of around a year. As we've said before, I think, putting in orders at this stage I think is consistent with that to the extent that there is a difference in timing or ramp.
克里斯托夫,我將承擔第一部分,你可以承擔第二部分。但說到這裡,你注意到那裡有什麼吸引力嗎?的時間。正如我們之前所說,我認為,在這個階段下訂單,我認為與此一致,只是時間或坡度有差異。
Again, I think that's a question that you might want to raise on a conference call tomorrow. But I think what we see here is pretty consistent with what we've also heard publicly -- heard them stated publicly about starting this in the second half of 2025. Christophe, on DRAM?
同樣,我認為您可能想在明天的電話會議上提出這個問題。但我認為我們在這裡看到的與我們公開聽到的非常一致 - 聽到他們公開表示將在 2025 年下半年開始這項工作。
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Yeah. On DRAM, so I think they also I think be very consistent with the information we have shared with you previously. So we see on the -- an increase of EUV use on every node. I think this is a trend that continue at least in the foreseeable future. Of course, it's always more difficult to make forecasts on nodes or technology that are still being defined by customer, but that logic is still in place. I think you have seen also in DRAM that this point of time, all customers are using EUV in production. I think the last customer was very public about that recently.
是的。在 DRAM 上,我認為它們也與我們之前與大家分享的資訊非常一致。因此,我們看到每個節點上 EUV 的使用量都在增加。我認為這種趨勢至少在可預見的未來會持續下去。當然,對仍在由客戶定義的節點或技術進行預測總是更加困難,但這種邏輯仍然存在。我想您也已經在 DRAM 中看到,此時所有客戶都在生產中使用 EUV。我認為最後一位客戶最近對此非常公開。
So you see a gradual basically adoption with different speed, maybe per customer, but I would say very much in line with I think what we explained already now for a few years. On High NA, we also see opportunity for DRAM at the horizon of '25, '26. As I mentioned in my commentaries, we see customers very eager to test the High NA tool in our lab, exposing their own wafer to validate basically that High NA can provide a nice opportunity both in performance, but also in cost savings. So they also same as before. We believe that '25, '26 is about the time where we could see some insertion of High NA for DRAM.
因此,您會看到基本上以不同的速度逐漸採用,也許每個客戶,但我想說的非常符合我認為我們現在已經解釋了幾年的內容。在高 NA 方面,我們也看到了 25 年、26 年 DRAM 的機會。正如我在評論中提到的,我們看到客戶非常渴望在我們的實驗室中測試高 NA 工具,暴露他們自己的晶圓以基本上驗證高 NA 可以在性能和節省成本方面提供良好的機會。所以他們也和以前一樣。我們相信,到 25、26 年,我們可以看到 DRAM 中插入一些高 NA。
Operator
Operator
Francois Bouvignies, UBS.
弗朗索瓦·布維尼,瑞銀集團。
Francois Bouvignies - Analyst
Francois Bouvignies - Analyst
Thank you very much. My first question would be on China, I'm afraid, I mean -- and it's very simple. Could you make in the future deep EUV tools without US IP at all? And are all your deep EUV tools using US IP? That's my first question.
非常感謝。我的第一個問題是關於中國的,我的意思是──這非常簡單。未來你能在完全沒有美國智慧財產權的情況下製造深度 EUV 工具嗎?你們所有的深度 EUV 工具都使用美國 IP 嗎?這是我的第一個問題。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
That's a very hypothetical question. At this stage, there is -- as you know, we have a lot of operations also in the United States, so there is a significant contingent of US technology in those tools. So speculating about could we do it without US technology, I think, is speculation that we shouldn't -- that we shouldn't and will not go into, I think, or the way we produce and the way we run our business should not be influenced by this kind of question.
這是一個非常假設性的問題。在現階段,如您所知,我們在美國也有很多業務,因此這些工具中有大量美國技術。因此,我認為,猜測我們是否可以在沒有美國技術的情況下做到這一點,就是猜測我們不應該——我認為,我們不應該也不會進入,或者我們的生產方式和我們經營業務的方式應不受此類問題的影響。
Francois Bouvignies - Analyst
Francois Bouvignies - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Yeah, I think, maybe to add to that, I think we've been also very vocal to say that we believe that preserving the ecosystem as much as possible is a good thing for this industry. I think we still believe that. And therefore, I think that's still also the discussion we're trying to have with all the stakeholders.
是的,我想,也許補充一點,我認為我們也非常直言不諱地說,我們相信盡可能保護生態系統對這個行業來說是一件好事。我想我們仍然相信這一點。因此,我認為這仍然是我們試圖與所有利害關係人進行的討論。
Francois Bouvignies - Analyst
Francois Bouvignies - Analyst
Makes sense. Thank you very much. And may be the second question I had is a bit of a follow-up. So if we take like this EUV orders of EUR2.5 billion and your EUR39 billion of backlog that you have, I come with like, you still have 30 tools -- EUV tools to book for next year to reach the midpoint of the guidance.
說得通。非常感謝。我的第二個問題可能是一個後續問題。因此,如果我們以 25 億歐元的 EUV 訂單和 390 億歐元的積壓訂單為例,我認為,您仍然有 30 種工具——明年需要預訂 EUV 工具,以達到指導的中點。
So Roger, you said nicely that your order backlog is -- orders is going well on track above this 4 billion, but it's mainly driven by deep EUV. And on EUV, it seems that you still need 30 to book for the rest of the year, which would imply around 7 billion of EUV orders coming in H2 versus 3 billion in H1. Is my math correct in a way to think that you still have a significant part of your EUV to be booked in the second half of the year, assuming, of course, you have one year lead times?
羅傑,你說得很好,你的訂單積壓是——訂單進展順利,超過了 40 億,但這主要是由深度 EUV 驅動的。至於 EUV,今年剩餘時間似乎仍需要 30 個訂單,這意味著下半年 EUV 訂單量約為 70 億美元,而上半年為 30 億美元。我的數學是否正確,認為您仍然有很大一部分 EUV 需要在下半年預訂,當然假設您有一年的交貨時間?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
There's still -- I think the math that we gave before, I think, still holds. So as I mentioned, I think we're well on track to achieve the objective -- the objective there. And we have given indications, or we have given a bandwidth for 2025, Francois, for the full revenue. I think you're now jumping into one specific element of the revenue, but I think our math holds for the full revenue, and I think that's what holds.
我認為我們之前給出的數學仍然成立。正如我所提到的,我認為我們正在順利實現目標——那裡的目標。我們已經給出了指示,或者我們已經給出了 2025 年的頻寬,弗朗索瓦,用於全部收入。我認為你現在正在討論收入的一個特定要素,但我認為我們的數學對於全部收入來說是成立的,我認為這就是成立的。
And I think going deeper into that and going there, I don't think adds anything to the overall message that I believe we are nicely underway to achieve the objectives and the bandwidth that we've discussed before. So I wouldn't go -- I wouldn't want to go at this stage any more specific into any of the components. As I mentioned before, we have a Capital Markets Day coming up. There we will be a lot more specific on how we look at 2025. And until that point in time, I think, we're just going to stick to our core messaging that I've given before.
我認為更深入地探討這一點並到達那裡,我認為不會對整體訊息添加任何內容,即我相信我們正在順利實現我們之前討論的目標和頻寬。所以我不會——我不想在這個階段進一步具體討論任何組件。正如我之前提到的,我們即將迎來資本市場日。在那裡,我們將更具體地討論我們如何看待 2025 年。
Operator
Operator
Stephane Houri, ODDO BHF.
史蒂芬‧胡里 (Stephane Houri),ODDO BHF。
Stephane Houri - Analyst
Stephane Houri - Analyst
Yeah, hello. Thank you for taking my question. In your prepared remark this morning, you seem to talk pretty much about increasing capacity or at least preparing for the ramp. So does it mean that -- and at the same time, you're talking about -- very highly about the reception of EUV High NA. So maybe if you could clarify what you mean by preparing the ramp and if it does mean that you want to increase your capacity, do more investment and maybe open a new plant? Thank you.
是的,你好。感謝您回答我的問題。在你今天早上準備好的演講中,你似乎談論了很多關於增加產能或至少為坡道做準備的問題。那麼這是否意味著——同時,你正在談論——對 EUV 高 NA 的接受程度非常高。那麼,也許您可以澄清一下準備坡道的含義,以及這是否確實意味著您想要提高產能、進行更多投資,甚至開設新工廠?謝謝。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
So in general, when we talk about increase in capacity, we really talk about increasing capacity across the board. And this really relates to the capacity expansion that we've talked about in the past, which is that we're driving towards the capacity of 600 deep EUV tools and 90 EUV tools. But then added to that, we are indeed also expanding our capacity when it comes to High NA. And that's I think -- it's that combination. So when we talk about adding capacity and ramping capacity, it's really across the board, it's the 9,600. And as we mentioned before, medium term working towards 20 High NA tools.
因此,總的來說,當我們談論產能增加時,我們實際上談論的是全面增加產能。這確實與我們過去談到的產能擴張有關,即我們正在推動 600 個深度 EUV 工具和 90 個 EUV 工具的產能。但除此之外,我們確實也在擴大我們在高數值孔徑方面的能力。我認為這就是——這就是這種結合。因此,當我們談論增加產能和提升產能時,它確實是全面的,那就是 9,600。正如我們之前提到的,中期將致力於開發 20 個高 NA 工具。
Stephane Houri - Analyst
Stephane Houri - Analyst
Okay. And can you maybe clarify where we are standing in terms of ASP for High NA tools? Thank you.
好的。您能否澄清一下我們在高 NA 工具的 ASP 方面的立場?謝謝。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
On the High NA tools, what we said before is that we're looking at an ASP north of EUR350 million. That's the ASP that we have for the 5,200 tool, which is the high-volume manufacturing tool that customers are ordering in this time frame.
關於高 NA 工具,我們之前說過我們正在考慮 ASP 超過 3.5 億歐元。這是我們 5,200 件工具的平均售價,這是客戶在此時間範圍內訂購的大量製造工具。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Gardiner, Citi.
安德魯·加德納,花旗銀行。
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Hi. Good afternoon, gentlemen. Thanks for taking the question. If you don't mind, I'll try another one on China. I'll try and be specific and we'll see whether you can comment on it. The article this morning seems to be, again, quite focused on your service activity in China and in particular, your servicing of tools that you were able to ship last year, high end immersion tools, NXT:2050 models. But as of the start of this year, you're no longer able to ship. Can you tell us whether you're still indeed servicing those tools at some of those clients? Yeah. Can you just clarify that?
你好。下午好,先生們。感謝您提出問題。如果你不介意的話,我會嘗試另一篇關於中國的文章。我會盡力具體說明,然後看看您是否可以對此發表評論。今天早上的文章似乎再次非常關注你們在中國的服務活動,特別是你們去年能夠運送的工具、高端浸入式工具、NXT:2050 型號的服務。但從今年年初開始,您將無法再出貨。您能否告訴我們您是否仍在為其中一些客戶提供這些工具?是的。你能澄清一下嗎?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Well, we are following all the applicable laws and regulations when it comes to export controls. And of course, that is a landscape with US rules and with Dutch rules. So for some fabs, there are more limitations to others. But in general, it is still the case that we can operate in the fabs of our customers. So we still have, as we call it, we still have eyes on the tools, so we're still in the fabs of our customers.
嗯,在出口管制方面,我們遵守所有適用的法律和法規。當然,這是美國規則和荷蘭規則的情況。因此,對於某些晶圓廠而言,其他晶圓廠則面臨更多限制。但總的來說,我們可以在客戶的晶圓廠運作的情況仍然是如此。因此,正如我們所說,我們仍然關注工具,所以我們仍然在客戶的晶圓廠中。
But there are limitations that for some fabs are more stringent, and this is then particularly related to parts being sent either from the United States or from Europe or when it comes to the use of technology. So manuals, et cetera. So there are limitations that for some fabs are more stringent than for other fabs. But in general, we're still in a position that our people can continue to serve in the fabs of our customers in the arrangement.
但對於一些晶圓廠來說,有更嚴格的限制,這尤其與從美國或歐洲發送的零件或技術的使用有關。所以手冊等等。因此,某些晶圓廠的限制比其他晶圓廠更嚴格。但總的來說,我們仍然可以讓我們的員工繼續在客戶的晶圓廠中服務。
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
And I think we'll be aware we have been now in this position for quite a few months. So I think the landscape has been set. So I think Roger said it, we fully understand the new regulation. We, I would say, adjusted our service, our action according to that. But for us, this is not new news at this point of time. We have been doing that for many months already.
我想我們會意識到我們已經處於這個位置好幾個月了。所以我認為景觀已經確定。所以我認為羅傑這麼說,我們完全理解新規定。我想說,我們據此調整了我們的服務和行動。但對我們來說,目前這並不是什麼新鮮事。我們已經這樣做了好幾個月了。
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Andrew Gardiner - Analyst
Thank you. Also, if I could have a quick follow-up. Christophe, you mentioned the new fabs that are going to be built, some of which supported by CHIPS Act money or equivalent funds in other jurisdictions. With all of those quotes scheduled to take tools, how much of an impact do you think is that in 2025 and how much is actually beyond that given the lead time it takes to build a lot of concrete and steel going in at the moment, but there's certainly not many ready to take actual clean room equipment just yet? Can you help us with how you think that's going to phase over '25 and then '26 and beyond?
謝謝。另外,如果我能快速跟進的話。 Christophe,您提到了即將建造的新晶圓廠,其中一些由 CHIPS 法案資金或其他司法管轄區的同等資金支持。考慮到所有這些報價都計劃採用工具,您認為到 2025 年影響有多大,考慮到目前建造大量混凝土和鋼材所需的交付時間,實際影響有多大,但是當然還沒有多少人準備好使用實際的潔淨室設備?您能告訴我們您認為這將如何在 25 年、26 年及以後分階段進行嗎?
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Yeah. So I think to make the answer simple, I think, most of it will come, in fact, after 2025. So I think the volume from those fab is still limited next year. I think you're mostly aware of the big announcement either in the US, in Europe, in Japan. So I think this will come after '25, mostly starting 2026. This was also with my comment about preparing also the capacity for that.
是的。所以我認為,為了簡單起見,我認為,事實上,大部分都會在 2025 年之後到來。我想你們大多都知道美國、歐洲和日本的重大公告。所以我認為這將在 25 年之後發生,主要是從 2026 年開始。
So as Roger explained, when we prepare the capacity, taking into account the lead time we have for some of our factories, some of our suppliers, of course, the capacity is there to meet the market demand, in fact, beyond 2025.
正如羅傑解釋的那樣,當我們準備產能時,考慮到我們一些工廠、一些供應商的交貨時間,當然,產能是為了滿足市場需求,事實上是在 2025 年之後。
So this is what we wanted to be ready for. So this is also why we are still very comfortable with the long-term view of the market, because those things are going to come. And we could expect even some more government funding moving forward, because as you also see it in the news, I think there is more and more wish from everyone to really invest in this business. So I think that's also something we don't expect to slow down over time. We expect that there will be more after the first wave of the investment.
所以這就是我們想要做好的準備。因此,這也是為什麼我們仍然對市場的長期觀點感到非常滿意,因為這些事情將會發生。我們可以期待更多的政府資金投入,因為正如你在新聞中看到的那樣,我認為每個人都越來越希望真正投資這項業務。所以我認為這也是我們預計不會隨著時間的推移而放緩的事情。我們預計第一波投資之後將會有更多。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
So Andrew, that's absolutely right. And to add to that, of course, there are many new fabs that are being built, and not all of them are necessarily associated with the CHIPS Act money. So that's why also in the past, we said that when it comes to 2025, more than half of the shipments will go (technical difficulty) but that will include new fabs, including new fabs, for instance, to be -- that are being constructed in Taiwan. So more than 50% of our shipments for 2025, we expect to go to new fabs. But Christophe is absolutely right. I think the effect really of the CHIPS Act money, I think you should probably see beyond that year.
所以安德魯,這是絕對正確的。當然,除此之外,還有許多新的晶圓廠正在建設中,但並非所有晶圓廠都必然與 CHIPS 法案的資金相關。因此,這也是為什麼我們在過去說過,到 2025 年,一半以上的出貨量將消失(技術難度),但這將包括新的晶圓廠,例如,正在建設中的新晶圓廠。建造。因此,我們預計 2025 年將有超過 50% 的出貨量流向新晶圓廠。但克里斯托夫是絕對正確的。我認為 CHIPS 法案資金的真正影響,我認為你應該看到那一年之後的情況。
Operator
Operator
Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.
克里斯‧卡索,沃爾夫研究中心。
Christopher Caso - Analyst
Christopher Caso - Analyst
Yeah, thank you. Good morning. The question is regarding revenue for the back half of the year. And based on where you're guiding for the third quarter and maintaining the view on the full year, that does anticipate some acceleration as you go into the fourth quarter. Could you give some color on what's going on there with regard to the timing of the orders? Is this just kind of typical -- some timing differences between some of the shipments in the third quarter and fourth quarter? And what gives you the confidence in the fourth quarter, please?
是的,謝謝。早安.問題是關於今年下半年的收入。根據您對第三季的指導以及對全年的看法,預計進入第四季時會出現一些加速。能否詳細說明一下訂單時間方面的情況?這是否只是一種典型現象——第三季和第四季的一些發貨之間存在一些時間差異?請問什麼讓您對第四季充滿信心?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Chris, what you see is that we are indeed building up momentum. I think that's also what you might expect, given what we said we look at 2025 as a growth year. And I think what you see over the quarters in 2024 that it is clearly building up over the quarters. I think -- and as we said before, we have been building capacity, so we're able to do it. But the demand is also building up this momentum over the quarters leading into the growth per year in 2025.
克里斯,你看到的是我們確實在積蓄動力。我認為這也是您所期望的,因為我們說過我們將 2025 年視為增長年。我認為你在 2024 年的幾個季度中看到的情況顯然是在各個季度中不斷累積的。我認為——正如我們之前所說,我們一直在建立能力,所以我們能夠做到這一點。但需求也在幾季內增強這種勢頭,直至 2025 年實現每年增長。
I should also add that as we've mentioned before, there is also some deferred revenue that we've been building up. And that means systems that we have shipped that we have not yet recognized revenue for, and the impact for that in the second half is expected to be around a billion. So that's a substantive number. And that comes either from fast shipments that we have been doing. And as you know, we no longer intend to fast ship by the end of this year. So that gives you a bit of a tailwind there. But it's also a number of 3,800 tools that we're shipping and that we take revenue for after shipments at site acceptance test for the customer.
我還應該補充一點,正如我們之前提到的,我們也一直在累積一些遞延收入。這意味著我們已經出貨的系統尚未確認收入,預計下半年的影響將達到 10 億左右。所以這是一個實質的數字。這要么來自我們一直在做的快速發貨。如您所知,我們不再打算在今年年底前快速出貨。所以這給了你一點順風。但我們也運送了 3,800 個工具,並在運送後為客戶進行現場驗收測試時獲取收入。
And also, as you know, we're in the process of shipping High NA tools that have been shipped, but where we only take revenue at the moment of site acceptance test. So there is a number of reasons why we will recognize revenue for stuff that has already been shipped. And I think with that tailwind and with the building up of momentum both in terms of capacity and in terms of demand, we're indeed looking at a very progressive buildup of revenue throughout the year, this year, and leading to over [9 billion] expectation indeed in Q4.
而且,如您所知,我們正在運送已發貨的高 NA 工具,但我們僅在現場驗收測試時獲取收入。因此,我們會確認已出貨商品的收入有多種原因。我認為,隨著這台順風車以及產能和需求方面動力的增強,我們確實看到今年全年收入的逐步增長,並導致超過 [90 億] 第四季度的預期確實如此。
Christopher Caso - Analyst
Christopher Caso - Analyst
That's very helpful color. Thank you. As a follow-up, I just wanted to follow-up on some of the comments you spoke about for High NA DRAM. And speaking of (technical difficulty) you think '25, '26 insertion time frame for that. Obviously the lead time for those tools are very long. It sounds like the customers are in your labs right now. What's your anticipation regarding timing on development tools or production tools for that and some idea of perhaps magnitude of tools or layer count for that going forward?
這是非常有用的顏色。謝謝。作為後續行動,我只想跟進您談到的有關高 NA DRAM 的一些評論。說到(技術難度),您認為「25」、「26」的插入時間範圍。顯然,這些工具的交貨時間很長。聽起來客戶現在就在您的實驗室裡。您對開發工具或生產工具的時間安排有何預期,以及對未來工具數量或層數的一些想法?
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Well, I think -- maybe I should start. I think as we said in the past, we have, I would say, a good backlog for High NA, which means that the customer I was referring to, all our EUV customers have ordered those systems. I think you see that we start to deliver those tools. And of course, this is timely aligned with some of the opportunity to insert.
好吧,我想——也許我應該開始。我認為正如我們過去所說,我們有大量的高 NA 積壓訂單,這意味著我提到的客戶,我們所有的 EUV 客戶都已經訂購了這些系統。我想你已經看到我們開始提供這些工具了。當然,這也是與一些插入機會及時結合的。
The addition of the lab basically is good for our customer because this gives them a chance even before that tool hit the ground to get the first data. And I think you understand on the technology High NA, the very first data are critical to understand exactly what's the value of the technology.
實驗室的增加基本上對我們的客戶有好處,因為這讓他們有機會在該工具落地之前獲得第一個數據。我認為您了解這項技術的高數值孔徑,第一個數據對於準確理解該技術的價值至關重要。
So this is why today the wafer that are being exposed are already providing very valuable information to our customer, information they can start to use to refine a bit their insertion scenario and the value that High NA could bring. That's why we've been, I would say, quite excited about the fact that we are generating this data today. And as I mentioned, I think what we see so far is the data are well meeting our customer expectations. So this is also coming.
因此,這就是為什麼今天曝光的晶圓已經為我們的客戶提供了非常有價值的信息,他們可以開始使用這些信息來改進他們的插入場景以及高數值孔徑可以帶來的價值。我想說,這就是為什麼我們對今天產生這些數據感到非常興奮。正如我所提到的,我認為到目前為止我們看到的數據很好地滿足了客戶的期望。所以這也來了。
Operator
Operator
C.J. Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.
C.J.繆斯,坎托·費茲傑拉。
Christopher James Muse - Analyst
Christopher James Muse - Analyst
I guess first question, would love to hear your thoughts around any changes in customer conversations over the last three months, whether foundry logic, and particularly as it relates to your more robust immersion shipment outlook for the second half of this year.
我想第一個問題,很想聽聽您對過去三個月客戶對話中任何變化的想法,是否是代工邏輯,特別是因為它與您今年下半年更強勁的沉浸式出貨前景有關。
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Well, the short answer is, no. No big change. I think the discussion we have with our customer are very consistent. So a lot of ramp of AI, the ramp beyond that, we don't see any major change. I think, in fact, I would say our view of the market this quarter is very much the same as the one we had last quarter. I think the big difference, as you have seen, is that we have made progress with booking on some of the segments, answering maybe one of the big question we got from all of you last quarter. But the view of the market for Roger, for me, is not changing. I think the discussion are very constant. (multiple speakers)
嗯,簡短的回答是,不。沒有大的變化。我認為我們與客戶的討論非常一致。因此,人工智慧的大量發展,除此之外,我們沒有看到任何重大變化。事實上,我認為我們對本季市場的看法與上季的市場看法非常相似。我認為,正如您所看到的,最大的區別是我們在某些航段的預訂方面取得了進展,這可能回答了上季度我們從大家那裡得到的一個大問題。但對我來說,市場對羅傑的看法並沒有改變。我認為討論非常持續。 (多個發言者)
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
When it comes to immersion, your other question, we continue immersion to continue to be strong, even though in the total mix, we do believe that the mix in the second half, there will be a lot more dry. So in the deep EUV mix, you will see the dry component becoming more significant than it was in the first half. But overall we do believe that immersion will continue to be strong also in the second half of the year.
當談到沉浸感時,你的另一個問題,我們繼續沉浸感繼續保持強勁,儘管在整個混合中,我們確實相信下半年的混合會更加乾燥。因此,在深度 EUV 混合中,您會看到乾燥成分變得比上半年更加重要。但總體而言,我們確實相信今年下半年沈浸感將持續強勁。
Christopher James Muse - Analyst
Christopher James Muse - Analyst
Thank you. And as a quick follow-up, can you speak to the 3,800? You talked about majority of shipments in the second half of this year. Think about the impact to gross margins and ASPs second half '24, and then kind of same question for all of 2025. Thank you.
謝謝。作為快速跟進,您能跟 3,800 人談談嗎?您談到了今年下半年的大部分出貨量。想想 24 年下半年對毛利率和平均售價的影響,然後是 2025 年全年的相同問題。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
So indeed, as Christophe said, it will be -- the majority of EUV tools in the second half will be 3,800. And I should add, as you know, C.J., and we talked about this before, that we have a ramp schedule where the initial 3800s are not yet up to full configuration. So gradually, we will get the 3800s up to the full specification of 220 wafer per hour.
事實上,正如 Christophe 所說,下半年的大多數 EUV 工具將是 3,800 個。我應該補充一點,正如你所知,C.J.,我們之前討論過這一點,我們有一個斜坡計劃,其中最初的 3800 尚未達到完整配置。因此,逐漸地,我們將使 3800 達到每小時 220 片晶圓的完整規格。
It also means that not all of the 3800s that will ship in the second half of this year will command the higher ASP, because some revenue is deferred up until the point where the tools have been upgraded to that higher specification. So we'll not get the full tailwind, I would say, of the strong 3800 pricing in the second half, but it's definitely going to help. But you will see a stronger effect of that in 2025, where of course, the share of the 3800 is going to be even stronger. And there all the tools essentially will be in final specification. And we will also get some deferred revenue that will be recognized in (technical difficulty) from tools that have been shipped in 2024.
這也意味著並非所有將於今年下半年發貨的 3800 都具有更高的 ASP,因為一些收入會推遲到工具升級到更高規格之前。因此,我想說,我們不會在下半年獲得強勁的 3800 定價的全部順風,但這肯定會有所幫助。但到 2025 年,你會看到更強烈的影響,當然,3800 的份額會更大。所有工具基本上都將符合最終規格。我們還將獲得一些遞延收入,這些收入將在 2024 年發貨的工具中(技術難度)中得到確認。
So if you look at the gross margin for the second half, of course, this is one element in there. Of course, we'll have a slight and that's a positive, I would say. And then we have a higher volume, obviously, in 2025 -- in the second half of 2024, as we just calculated, that's also a positive. A slightly negative is that in the DVP mix, as I mentioned before, the dry component is going to be more visible, right? So that's a bit of a drag on the gross margin.
因此,如果你看一下下半年的毛利率,當然,這是其中的一個因素。當然,我們會有輕微的影響,我想說,這是正面的。然後,顯然,到 2025 年,到 2024 年下半年,我們的銷售量會更高,正如我們剛剛計算的那樣,這也是一個積極因素。稍微不利的是,在 DVP 組合中,正如我之前提到的,乾燥成分會更加明顯,對吧?所以這對毛利率有一點拖累。
And then we also -- in the second half, we're going to have the first revenue recognition of the High NA tools. And of course, on the one hand, that's great, because that means that we have the sign off of customers on the tool, as we expect, in the second half of this year. But you also know that the gross margin on that tool is not great. So that will also be a drag. So that's the reason why for the second half of this year, we expect a slightly lower gross margin than we expect -- than we were able to report in the first half.
然後,在下半年,我們將首次確認高 NA 工具的收入。當然,一方面,這很好,因為這意味著我們的客戶將在今年下半年簽署該工具,正如我們所期望的那樣。但您也知道該工具的毛利率並不高。所以這也將是一個拖累。因此,這就是為什麼今年下半年的毛利率將略低於我們的預期——比我們上半年報告的毛利率略低。
Operator
Operator
Didier Scemama, Bank of America.
迪迪埃·斯塞馬瑪,美國銀行。
Didier Scemama - Analyst
Didier Scemama - Analyst
First on High NA, maybe for Christophe. (technical difficulty) good news that good stuff that you told us about transistor density and the quality of the imaging on High NA, how are your conversations going with one of your customers that historically was a bit reluctant with that technology? I understand they came to visit you in Veldhoven, which is reasonably unusual. Just tell us a little bit about the feedback you got from that visit, whether you think the bid-ask spread between what they want and what you can deliver, how is that progressing. And I've got a follow-up.
首先是 High NA,也許是為 Christophe 準備的。 (技術難度)好消息,您告訴我們有關高數值孔徑的晶體管密度和成像品質的好消息,您與一位過去不太願意使用該技術的客戶的對話進展如何?據我所知,他們來費爾德霍芬拜訪您,這相當不尋常。請告訴我們一些您從那次訪問中得到的反饋,您是否認為他們想要的東西和您可以提供的東西之間的買賣差價,進展如何。我還有後續行動。
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Yeah. So first I'd like to say I think we never qualify any customer as being reluctant for High NA. I think this information came from somewhere else. I think the short answer is the data generation help. Again, we are exposing important wafer. We told you in the past, we are happy to get that amount of backlog on High NA because our customers were showing the trust in the technology without having any data at hand. So they were basically following our, I would say, analysis or our promise that this will help them moving forward. And they have been willing to invest for R&D quite heavily and by the way, even down pay some of those systems.
是的。首先,我想說,我認為我們從來沒有認為任何客戶不願意接受高 NA。我認為這些資訊來自其他地方。我認為簡短的答案是數據生成幫助。我們再次曝光重要的晶圓。我們過去告訴過您,我們很高興在 High NA 上獲得如此多的積壓,因為我們的客戶在手頭沒有任何數據的情況下就表現出了對技術的信任。所以他們基本上遵循我們的分析或我們的承諾,這將有助於他們前進。他們願意為研發投入大量資金,順便說一句,甚至願意支付其中一些系統的首付。
So this has a huge commitment from the industry. I think the data is helping tremendously because our customer can see data. I think that can be used also for potentially their customer to have a much better discussion around High NA. So I think the dynamic is good. And I would say the discussion is getting a lot more concrete. And I think we need to give a few more months to that discussion so that everyone, based on data this time, have a bit of a better idea of what could be done moving forward with High NA and how quickly.
因此,業界做出了巨大的承諾。我認為數據有很大幫助,因為我們的客戶可以看到數據。我認為這也可以讓他們的潛在客戶圍繞高 NA 進行更好的討論。所以我認為動態是好的。我想說的是,討論變得更具體。我認為我們需要再花幾個月的時間進行討論,以便每個人根據這次的數據,更好地了解高 NA 可以做什麼以及多快完成。
Didier Scemama - Analyst
Didier Scemama - Analyst
My follow-up is a bit of just picking your brains, and I'm sure you've got like armies of PhDs running simulations. But if we were to assume that there is some sort of AI, PC and smartphone refresh cycle pushing volumes for those combined markets to maybe a high single-digit volume growth in calendar year '25 or calendar year '26, do you think that there is enough capacity in DRAM, maybe NAND, and maybe to a lesser degree in logic to deliver that potential uplifting volumes?
我的後續行動只是請大家開動腦筋,我相信你們已經有很多博士在運行模擬了。但是,如果我們假設存在某種人工智慧、個人電腦和智慧型手機更新周期,推動這些綜合市場的銷量在 25 日曆年或 26 日曆年實現高單位數銷量增長,您認為有嗎? )以及邏輯上的較小程度的容量是否足以提供潛在的提升容量?
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Well, I think everyone is maybe trying to answer that question. I think it's very difficult to answer the question. I think what we have seen with AI is a major investment from many companies in supercomputer in the ability basically to train model. What we still miss in AI, I think, is the emergence of end product. So I think today, there's not much revenue made on AI. There's just a lot of investment. What we see is that still that investment require a lot of capacity. I think you have seen some of our customers announcing also more capacity to be built before 2028.
嗯,我想每個人可能都在試圖回答這個問題。我覺得這個問題很難回答。我認為我們在人工智慧方面看到的是許多公司對超級電腦的重大投資,主要是為了訓練模型的能力。我認為,我們在人工智慧領域仍然懷念的是最終產品的出現。所以我認為今天人工智慧帶來的收入並不多。只是有很多投資。我們看到的是,這項投資仍然需要大量產能。我想您已經看到我們的一些客戶宣佈在 2028 年之前建造更多產能。
And as I said before, if the rest of the application were to recover, what has been done so far, which is to reallocate some of the capacity to [HBM], may become more difficult. So overall, I think, we still expect as the rest of the market recover to see a need for more capacity. And that's, I think, also true for DRAM.
正如我之前所說,如果應用程式的其餘部分要恢復,到目前為止所做的(將部分容量重新分配給 [HBM])可能會變得更加困難。因此,總的來說,我認為,隨著市場其他部分的復甦,我們仍然預計將需要更多的產能。我認為 DRAM 也是如此。
Now to tell you at what speed, I think, this is still a bit difficult. I think we said it a few times. I think the recovery is something we are looking at every day and there is also a lot of uncertainty. So this is why you still see us being, I would say, strong in our view of 2025, but also a bit cautious because there's still a lot of uncertainty around those opportunities.
現在告訴大家要什麼速度,我想,這還是有點困難。我想我們已經說過好幾次了。我認為復甦是我們每天都在關注的事情,也存在著許多不確定性。因此,我想說,這就是為什麼我們對 2025 年的看法仍然堅定,但也有點謹慎,因為這些機會仍然存在著許多不確定性。
Operator
Operator
Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna.
邁赫迪·侯賽尼,薩斯奎哈納。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Two follow-up. Christophe, is there anything you can share with me to give me confidence that 3,800 is going to finally be on track? If I go back to your '22 Analyst Day, the transition was supposed to happen in '23, got pushed back to early '24 and now it's a big hockey stick coming with the 3800E shipment. Is there anything you can share with us in terms of throughput or any other thing that would help us with incremental confidence? And I have a follow-up.
兩個後續。 Christophe,您有什麼可以與我分享的,讓我相信 3,800 最終會走上正軌嗎?如果我回到 22 年分析師日,過渡本來應該在 23 年進行,但被推遲到 24 年初,現在是 3800E 發貨時的一個大曲棍球棒。在吞吐量方面您有什麼可以與我們分享的嗎?我有一個後續行動。
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Yeah. So I think there's two parts of that. I think the technology part where we are busy here in ASML to demonstrate basically the performance of the tool. We have seen very big progress there. We have measured 195 wafer per hours on the tool. We expect to see the final specification being measured also in the coming weeks. We don't see any hard showstopper, so we just see some work to be done. With the customer, I think, some of the delay was also a choice we made to support the demand in the previous year. So if you remember, 2022 was a year where we saw a very strong demand from all customers on EUV. And we thought this would be wise to slow down a bit the ramp to the next product to not disrupt that demand.
是的。所以我認為這有兩個部分。我認為我們在 ASML 中忙於展示該工具的性能的技術部分。我們在那裡看到了很大的進展。我們在該工具上測量了每小時 195 片晶圓。我們預計將在未來幾週內看到最終規格的測量。我們沒有看到任何困難的阻礙,所以我們只是看到一些工作要做。我認為,對於客戶來說,部分延遲也是我們為支援前一年的需求所做的選擇。因此,如果您還記得的話,2022 年我們看到所有客戶對 EUV 的需求非常強勁。我們認為,明智的做法是稍微放慢下一個產品的生產速度,以免擾亂這種需求。
At this point of time, the tool also is getting at customer. We made a choice, has been explained before, to ship it initially at lower throughput, so that the qualification could start earlier at our customer, so that they can be ready basically for high volume manufacturing next year when I think this is the real expectation for this tool to run manufacturing.
此時,該工具也正在接觸客戶。我們做出了一個選擇,之前已解釋過,最初以較低的吞吐量進行運輸,以便我們的客戶可以更早地開始資格認證,以便他們基本上可以為明年的大批量生產做好準備,我認為這是真正的期望使用此工具來運行製造。
So from my point of view, maybe we said that the biggest element to help you is that technology wise, there is no concern at all. And when it comes to qualification with our customer, I think this is underway. And of course we are going to use the next few months to mature the system. It always takes a few months to do that.
所以從我的角度來看,也許我們說對你有幫助的最大因素是技術面,根本不用擔心。當談到與我們的客戶進行資格認證時,我認為這正在進行中。當然,我們將用接下來的幾個月來使系統成熟。做到這一點總是需要幾個月的時間。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Thank you. And for Roger, I think if I'm not mistaken, in the last earning conference call, you talked about a EUR700 million of fast shipment. Did I hear you correctly that you said it's up to EUR1 billion now? Is that the right figure for fast shipment?
謝謝。至於羅傑,我想如果我沒記錯的話,在上次的盈利電話會議中,您談到了 7 億歐元的快速發貨。我沒聽錯吧,你說現在已經達到10億歐元了?這個數字適合快速出貨嗎?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Yeah. I think there are different numbers, Mehdi, and that's why I just lumped it together. So, as I mentioned, we have a fast shipment effect, and your memory serves you well. But in addition to that, we also have 3,800 that we shipped in H1, but recognizing revenue in H2. And also we have High NA tools that with the long lead times and given this is a very new technology, we're going to recognize revenue not upon shipment, but upon SAC.
是的。我認為有不同的數字,邁赫迪,這就是為什麼我只是把它們放在一起。所以,正如我所提到的,我們有快速的出貨效果,而且你的記憶對你很有幫助。但除此之外,我們上半年還出貨了 3,800 台,但下半年確認了收入。而且我們還擁有高 NA 工具,交貨時間長,而且這是一項非常新的技術,我們不會在發貨時確認收入,而是在 SAC 上確認收入。
And that combination of things that we expect around 1 billion to be added to the -- to be added to the revenue. So deferred revenue that we expect to see in -- to see recorded in revenue in the second half. So that's the difference. It's not just a fast shipment, but also the other dynamics that I just talked about.
我們預計這些因素的結合將增加約 10 億美元的收入。因此,我們預計將在下半年看到遞延收入記錄在收入中。這就是差別。不只是出貨快,還有我剛才談到的其他動態。
Operator
Operator
Sandeep Deshpande, JPMorgan.
桑迪普·德什潘德,摩根大通。
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Yeah, hi. Thank you for letting me on. My first question, I mean, clearly there was earlier questions on this, but I'm trying to going to ask it another way, which is that you don't have a view on where you're going to land in 25 years. And one can understand that given deep EUV, et cetera, they have much shorter lead times.
是的,嗨。謝謝你讓我上來。我的第一個問題,我的意思是,顯然之前已經有人問過這個問題,但我試著用另一種方式來問,那就是你對 25 年後你會到達哪裡沒有任何看法。人們可以理解,鑑於深 EUV 等,它們的交貨時間要短得多。
But on EUV itself, given where the lead times on EUV are, you probably have a view on how many tools you're going to build into EUV already. So, I mean, my question would be, what is the capacity you have for EUV next year? And I mean are you building fully to that capacity or are you going to be building less than that capacity at this point? And I have a quick follow-up.
但就 EUV 本身而言,考慮到 EUV 的交付時間,您可能已經知道要在 EUV 中建造多少工具。所以,我的問題是,你們明年的 EUV 產能有多大?我的意思是,您目前的建設是否完全達到了該能力,或者您目前的建設量是否會低於該能力?我有一個快速的跟進。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
An A for effort, Sandeep, for sure in asking the question. But we're going to stick to our guns here, also on EUV. Wait until the Capital Markets Day. There we will give you a lot more color and context. We have been building capacity for EUV. As you know, we are working towards a capacity level of 90 in the '25, '26 time frame.
桑迪普,在提出這個問題時,肯定會得到 A 的努力。但我們將堅持我們的立場,包括 EUV。等到資本市場日。在那裡我們將為您提供更多的色彩和背景。我們一直在建立 EUV 能力。如您所知,我們正在努力在 25 年、26 年期間將容量水準提高到 90。
So we have been driving up capacity quite a bit. So there is quite some room that we have to accommodate a demand on EUV. But we are not going to give any more color as to what our expectations for EUV sales are going to be. In November of 2025, we'll give you a more concrete picture. Just reiterating, between 30 billion and 40 billion and it will not be the low point. I think that's the expectation that we've articulated before and that's where we still are.
因此,我們已經大幅提高了產能。因此,我們必須有相當大的空間來滿足 EUV 的需求。但我們不會再透露對 EUV 銷售的預期。 2025 年 11 月,我們將為您提供更具體的情況。只是重申一下,300億到400億之間還不是最低點。我認為這是我們之前表達過的期望,而且現在仍然如此。
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Thank you. Maybe stepping back a little bit. I mean, there have been a lot of conversations in the industry about that whether litho is going to continue the kind of scaling it has done over the last 20 years, given the challenges with shrinking here from the current level. So maybe in terms of the adoption of High NA and litho itself, Christophe, maybe you can make any comments on what your interactions with the foundries and the memory companies have been in terms of using litho as a critical driver of the scaling in semiconductors over the next few years because there has been a lot more conversation in the industry about the limitations of litho.
謝謝。也許退一步。我的意思是,考慮到從當前水平縮小所面臨的挑戰,業內已經有很多關於光刻是否會繼續過去 20 年所進行的擴展的討論。因此,也許就高 NA 和光刻本身的採用而言,Christophe,也許您可以就您與代工廠和記憶體公司的互動發表任何評論,以使用光刻作為半導體規模化的關鍵驅動力。接下來的幾年,因為業界對光刻的限制進行了更多的討論。
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Christophe Fouquet - President, Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Management Board
Well, I think it's two things that are well known. So first, I think you're hinting to it. I think if we look at the last few years, the scaling, the shrink is slowing down. I think this is not new. And for a long time, litho had an impact on that. I think at this point of time, it's more fundamentals, basically, and related to all the innovation you need to put in place in order to be able to scale the transistor.
嗯,我認為這是眾所周知的兩件事。首先,我認為你是在暗示這一點。我認為,如果我們看看過去幾年,規模擴大、規模縮小的速度正在放緩。我認為這並不新鮮。在很長一段時間裡,光刻對此產生了影響。我認為在這個時候,它基本上是更基礎的,並且與您需要實施的所有創新相關,以便能夠擴展晶體管。
Now, this being said, scaling is slowing down. So that's many years already. What is not slowing down is the need for transistor density. So that curve, which is more slow practically, is not slowing down. So customers are asking more and more density at the same speed they have done for many, many years. And as scaling slow down, I would say shrink become even more valuable because shrink is still today the best way to save cost on density. Everything else require you to just build more transistor with more steps. So shrink today, and that's true today, it's going to be true to (technical difficulty) is still the best way to reduce cost. And sometimes, we say the less you can shrink, the more the value of shrink is going to be. That's one thing.
現在,話雖這麼說,規模擴張正在放緩。所以那已經很多年了。對晶體管密度的需求並未放緩。因此,實際上更慢的曲線並沒有放緩。因此,客戶要求越來越多的密度,而他們多年來一直在這樣做。隨著擴展速度放緩,我認為縮小變得更有價值,因為縮小仍然是當今節省密度成本的最佳方法。其他一切都需要你用更多的步驟來建造更多的電晶體。所以今天縮小,今天也是如此,將來(技術難度)仍然是降低成本的最佳方法。有時,我們說你能收縮的越少,收縮的價值就越大。這是一回事。
The other thing, of course, is if you shrink less, you need more volume. And more volume can be obtained by exposing more wafer or exposing more stack on the wafer. But in both cases, this drive also more lithography. So we never really feared the reduction of shrink because this was driving volume. This is one of the reasons why we have been building capacity.
當然,另一件事是,如果縮小得更少,則需要更大的體積。並且可以透過暴露更多的晶圓或暴露晶圓上更多的堆疊來獲得更多的體積。但在這兩種情況下,這種驅動器還需要更多的光刻技術。所以我們從來沒有真正擔心過收縮的減少,因為這會推動銷售。這是我們一直在進行能力建構的原因之一。
And at the same time, we know that every step we will be able to make in lithography will have huge value for our customers. So this is something also we believe continues to be important. And of course most probably over time and we'll also talk a bit about that in November, we will look at more ways to help our customer to drive this density basically up.
同時,我們知道我們在光刻技術中所做的每一步都將為我們的客戶帶來巨大的價值。因此,我們認為這仍然很重要。當然,隨著時間的推移,我們也將在 11 月討論這一點,我們將尋找更多方法來幫助我們的客戶從根本上提高密度。
So I'd say, no news there. Scaling is slowing down. It's not a difficult thing to say for a litho person, it's just reality. Density does not. Therefore a need for more volume, more value for shrink. And I will say, some opportunity to look at other applications to help our customers to guess this density at cost. We'll talk a lot about that in November, I like to say, because I think it's one of the things we want to explain again, everyone.
所以我想說,那裡沒有消息。規模擴張正在放緩。對石印人來說這並不難,這就是現實。密度則不然。因此需要更大的體積、更多的收縮價值。我想說,有機會看看其他應用程序,以幫助我們的客戶以成本猜測這個密度。我想說,我們將在 11 月對此進行很多討論,因為我認為這是我們想再次向大家解釋的事情之一。
Skip Miller - Head - Investor Relations Worldwide
Skip Miller - Head - Investor Relations Worldwide
All right. We have time for one last question. If you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Now, operator, may we have the last caller, please?
好的。我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。如果您無法接通本次電話會議但仍有疑問,請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。現在,接線員,請接聽最後一位來電者嗎?
Operator
Operator
Aditya Metuku, HSBC.
Aditya Metuku,匯豐銀行。
Adithya Metuku - Analyst
Adithya Metuku - Analyst
Yeah. Good morning. Good afternoon, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. So, firstly, just a clarification on your backlog. I just wondered if you could give us a sense for how big domestic Chinese demand is as a part of your backlog today, just to get a sense for the level to which it may contribute to revenues next year.
是的。早安.下午好,夥計們。感謝您回答我的問題。因此,首先,請澄清一下您的積壓工作。我只是想知道您是否可以讓我們了解您今天積壓的中國國內需求有多大,以便了解它對明年收入的貢獻程度。
And secondly, just on China again, there's a lot of rumors flying around, and I suspect the rules that are in place today are the result of some give and take in different companies, different stakeholders pushing in different ways. But just to hear it from the horse's mouth, can you give us some idea of what the US government would ideally like you to ship to China regardless of the rules that are in place today? And how does that compare to what you're shipping to China today? Any color on that would be helpful. Thank you.
其次,再次就中國而言,有許多謠言滿天飛,我懷疑今天制定的規則是不同公司、不同利害關係人以不同方式推動的結果。但從馬口中得知,您能否告訴我們,無論目前的規定如何,美國政府最希望您向中國運送什麼?這與你們今天運往中國的貨物相比如何?任何顏色都會有幫助。謝謝。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Adithya, on the backlog, I think we've said it before that our backlog is a little bit north of 20%, and that's still the case. So that's on the Chinese share in our backlog. On the China rumors, we're not going to add, I think, to the rumors that are already out there. I think this is a negotiation between governments. Companies are not at the table. And we live by -- we obviously stick to what we're allowed to do and we're not going to speculate about what government A might want to see in the rules and what government B might want to have in the rules. I don't think that's going to add to any clarity.
Adithya,關於積壓,我想我們之前已經說過,我們的積壓有點高於 20%,而且情況仍然如此。這就是我們積壓訂單中中國所佔份額。關於中國的謠言,我認為我們不會再增加已經存在的謠言。我認為這是政府之間的談判。公司不在談判桌上。我們的生活方式是——我們顯然堅持我們被允許做的事情,我們不會猜測政府 A 可能希望在規則中看到什麼以及政府 B 可能希望在規則中看到什麼。我認為這不會增加任何清晰度。
I think what is very important to understand and Christophe said it at the beginning of the call, the way we look at the demand for our tools is not from a specific geography. In this case, China. We look at -- and that's the way we model our sales, medium term and long term. We look at what is the global demand for wafers and whether those wafers are being produced in country X or country Y. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter. And I think that is very important to recognize in looking at your model. We don't have a specific China element in our models. It is the global demand for wafers that drives our modeling.
我認為理解這一點非常重要,克里斯托夫在電話會議開始時就說過,我們看待工具需求的方式並不是來自特定的地理位置。在這種情況下,中國。我們著眼於——這就是我們對中期和長期銷售進行建模的方式。我們關注全球對晶圓的需求是多少,以及這些晶圓是在 X 國還是 Y 國生產。我認為在查看模型時認識到這一點非常重要。我們的模型中沒有特定的中國元素。全球對晶圓的需求推動了我們的建模。
Skip Miller - Head - Investor Relations Worldwide
Skip Miller - Head - Investor Relations Worldwide
All right. Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.
好的。現在,我謹代表 ASML,感謝大家今天加入我們。接線員,如果您能正式結束通話,我將不勝感激。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
This concludes the ASML 2024 second quarter financial results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
ASML 2024 年第二季財務業績電話會議至此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。