艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2023 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on October 18, 2023. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2023 年 10 月 18 日舉行的 ASML 2023 年第三季財務業績電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。我現在想將電話會議交給斯基普·米勒先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2023 3rd quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live on the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

謝謝你，接線生。歡迎大家。我是斯基普·米勒 (Skip Miller)，ASML 投資者關係副總裁。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink；和我們的財務長羅傑·達森。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2023 年第三季業績。本次電話會議時長為 60 分鐘，問題將依照收到的順序回答。這次電話會議也在網路上進行了現場直播：asml.com。本次電話會議結束後不久，我們的網站上將提供管理層開場白和電話會議重播的記錄。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and the presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。對於風險因素的討論，我鼓勵您查看今天的新聞稿中包含的安全港聲明以及我們網站 asml.com 上的演示文稿以及 ASML 表格 20-F 的年度報告以及向證券公司提交的其他文件和交易委員會。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

說到這裡，我想將電話轉給 Peter Wennink，讓他做個簡短的介紹。

Thanks, Skip. Welcome to everyone. Thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2023 results conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the third quarter 2023 as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. Roger will start with a review of our third quarter 2023 financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook. Roger, if you will?

謝謝，斯基普。歡迎大家。感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第三季業績電話會議。在我們開始問答環節之前，羅傑和我想對 2023 年第三季進行概述和一些評論，並提供我們對未來幾季的看法。 Roger 將首先回顧我們 2023 年第三季的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景進行補充評論。我將透過對當前商業環境和我們未來商業前景的一些補充評論來完成介紹。羅傑，如果你願意的話？

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the third quarter financial accomplishments and then provide guidance in the fourth quarter of 2023.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第三季的財務成就，然後提供 2023 年第四季的指導。

Let me start with our third quarter accomplishments. Net sales came in at EUR 6.7 billion, which is around the midpoint of our guidance. We shipped 10 EUV systems and recognized EUR 1.9 billion revenue from 11 systems this quarter. Net system sales of EUR 5.3 billion, which was mainly driven by Logic at 76%, with the remaining 24% coming from Memory. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.4 billion as guided.

讓我從我們第三季的成就開始。淨銷售額為 67 億歐元，約為我們指引值的中位數。本季我們出貨了 10 個 EUV 系統，並從 11 個系統中確認了 19 億歐元的收入。系統淨銷售額為 53 億歐元，其中 76% 主要由邏輯驅動，其餘 24% 來自記憶體。根據指導，本季已安裝基礎管理銷售額為 14 億歐元。

Gross margin for the quarter came in at 51.9%, which is above our guidance, primarily driven by DPV product mix as well as some one-off cost effects. On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 992 million, and SG&A expenses came in at EUR 288 million, both basically as guided.

本季毛利率為 51.9%，高於我們的指引，這主要是受到 DPV 產品組合以及一些一次性成本影響的推動。在營運費用方面，研發費用為 9.92 億歐元，SG&A 費用為 2.88 億歐元，兩者基本上符合指引。

Net income in Q3 was EUR 1.9 billion, representing 28.4% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 4.81.

第三季淨利為 19 億歐元，佔淨銷售額的 28.4%，每股收益為 4.81 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 5 billion. Moving to the order book. Q3 net system bookings came in at EUR 2.6 billion, which is made up of EUR 0.5 billion for EUV bookings and EUR 2.1 billion for non-EUV bookings. These values also include inflation corrections.

轉向資產負債表。截至第三季末，我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資達到 50 億歐元。轉到訂單簿。第三季淨系統預訂金額為 26 億歐元，其中 EUV 預訂額為 5 億歐元，非 EUV 預訂額為 21 億歐元。這些數值也包括通貨膨脹修正。

Net system bookings in the quarter were driven by Logic with 80% of the bookings while Memory accounted for the remaining 20%. As expected, we did see some moderation in orders this quarter. As the industry is working through a cycle, customers remain cautious in the current environment, managing cash flows and delaying purchase orders. In addition, there were no high-NA orders this quarter while our bookings were lower than in previous quarters, our backlog at the end of Q3 remained strong at over EUR 35 billion.

本季的淨系統預訂量由邏輯驅動，佔預訂量的 80%，而記憶體則佔剩餘的 20%。正如預期的那樣，我們確實看到本季的訂單有所放緩。由於該行業正在經歷一個週期，客戶在當前環境下保持謹慎，管理現金流並推遲採購訂單。此外，本季度沒有高NA訂單，而我們的預訂量低於前幾季度，我們在第三季度末的積壓訂單仍然強勁，超過350億歐元。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the fourth quarter of 2023. We expect Q4 net sales to be between EUR 6.7 billion and EUR 7.1 billion. We expect our Q4 installed base management sales to be around EUR 1.4 billion. Gross margin for Q4 is expected to be between 50% and 51%. The positive impact of higher sales volume is more than offset by the diluted impact from a change in DPV mix and one-off effects relative to last quarter.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2023 年第四季的預期。我們預計第四季的淨銷售額將在 67 億歐元至 71 億歐元之間。我們預計第四季度的安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 14 億歐元。第四季毛利率預計在 50% 至 51% 之間。銷售增加的正面影響被 DPV 組合變化的稀釋影響和相對於上季的一次性效應所抵消。

The expected R&D expenses for Q4 are around EUR 1.03 billion and SG&A is expected to be around EUR 285 million. Our estimated 2023 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 15% and 16%.

第四季的研發費用預計約為 10.3 億歐元，SG&A 預計約為 2.85 億歐元。我們預計 2023 年年化有效稅率預計在 15% 至 16% 之間。

An interim dividend of EUR 1.45 per ordinary share will be made payable on November 10, 2023. In Q3 2023, we purchased shares for a total amount of around EUR 100 million. As mentioned in previous quarters, in the current environment, we expect to see ongoing pressure on our free cash flow. As a result, we will be prudent in managing our cash flows and maintain relatively high levels of cash. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Peter.

每股普通股 1.45 歐元的中期股息將於 2023 年 11 月 10 日支付。2023 年第三季度，我們購買了總額約 1 億歐元的股票。正如前幾季所提到的，在當前環境下，我們預計我們的自由現金流將持續面臨壓力。因此，我們將審慎管理現金流，並維持較高的現金水準。有了這個，我想把電話轉給彼得。

Thank you, Roger, and I have a bit of a cold. So apologies. As Roger has highlighted, another good quarter, especially considering the current market environment. Uncertainty remains in the market, driven by global macro concerns around inflation, rising interest rates, lower GDP growth in certain economies and indeed geopolitical environment, including export controls.

謝謝你，羅傑，我有點感冒。所以抱歉。正如羅傑所強調的那樣，這又是一個不錯的季度，特別是考慮到當前的市場環境。由於對通膨、利率上升、某些經濟體 GDP 成長放緩以及地緣政治環境（包括出口管制）的全球宏觀擔憂，市場仍存在不確定性。

However, industry seems to be passing through the cycle trough. There has been some improvement in end market inventory levels downstream -- sorry I have to get a bit of water -- although inventory levels and upstream remain elevated. As a result, the customers continue to moderate wafer output by running at lower utilization levels.

然而，業界似乎正在​​經歷週期低谷。下游終端市場庫存水準有所改善——抱歉，我必須喝點水——儘管庫存水平和上游仍然很高。因此，客戶繼續透過以較低的利用率水準運作來調節晶圓產量。

While lithography tool utilization are still running at levels lower than normal relative to last quarter, tool utilization in Logic and continues to show signs of improvement, while Memory has yet to turn. We concur with our customers but still expect to see an inflection point indicating the start of a recovery by the end of the year, although the shape and slope of the recovery remains uncertain.

儘管光刻工具利用率相對於上季仍低於正常水平，但邏輯和記憶體的工具利用率繼續顯示出改善的跡象，而記憶體尚未出現改善。我們同意客戶的觀點，但仍預計年底前會出現表明復甦開始的拐點，儘管復甦的形狀和斜率仍不確定。

Looking further ahead to 2025, we expect a significant growth here since more than 50% of our EUV and DPV shipments will go to new fab projects. On top of this, we expect existing fabs will be adding capacity driven by a continued recovery cycle.

展望 2025 年，我們預計將顯著成長，因為超過 50% 的 EUV 和 DPV 出貨量將流向新的晶圓廠專案。除此之外，我們預計現有晶圓廠將在持續的復甦週期的推動下增加產能。

Turning to our business. We now expect DPV revenue to grow towards 55% year-over-year, an increase from around 50% communicated last quarter, primarily driven by an increase in immersion revenue. China's demand for DPV systems continues to be strong and trends we talked about in previous quarters.

轉向我們的業務。我們現在預計 DPV 收入將年增 55%，高於上季公佈的 50% 左右，這主要是由沉浸式收入的成長所推動的。中國對 DPV 系統的需求持續強勁，這也是我們在前幾季討論過的趨勢。

For system shipment this year to Chinese customers, the majority of the orders were booked in 2022. The demand fill rate for our Chinese customers over the last 2 years was significantly less than 50%. So the Chinese customers, were in fact, receiving a much lower number of systems than they ordered. This was due to the fact that timing from other customers that -- sorry, this was due to the fact that the demand for our systems worldwide significantly exceeded supply.

今年向中國客戶出貨的系統，大部分的訂單都是在2022年預訂。過去兩年中國客戶的需求滿足率明顯低於50%。因此，中國客戶實際上收到的系統數量比他們訂購的要少得多。這是因為其他客戶的時間安排——抱歉，這是因為全球範圍內對我們系統的需求大大超過了供應。

With current shifts in demand timing from other customers, we now have the opportunity to fulfill these orders to our Chinese customers. So the supply is, in fact, catching up to demand and we're shipping lithography systems for mature and mid-critical nodes to China, while, of course, complying with export control regulations. If you combine this with the fact that other customers are delaying their demand, this means indeed a higher sales percentage from China than we saw in previous years.

隨著其他客戶需求時間的變化，我們現在有機會向中國客戶履行這些訂單。因此，供應實際上正在趕上需求，我們正在將成熟和中關鍵節點的光刻系統運送到中國，同時當然也要遵守出口管制法規。如果將這一點與其他客戶推遲需求的事實結合起來，這實際上意味著來自中國的銷售百分比比我們前幾年看到的要高。

In EUV for 2023, we continue to expect year-over-year revenue growth for EUV of around 25% as communicated last quarter. For the installed base business in 2023, the current utilization rates, market uncertainty, particularly as it relates to the timing of the recovery, customers continue to wait to perform productivity and performance upgrades on the litho systems. Therefore, we now expect our installed base business this year to be down around 5% from last year versus the flat growth previously communicated.

對於 2023 年 EUV，我們繼續預計 EUV 收入將同比增長 25% 左右，正如上季度公佈的那樣。對於 2023 年的安裝基礎業務，目前的利用率、市場不確定性，特別是與復甦時間相關的不確定性，客戶繼續等待對光刻系統進行生產力和性能升級。因此，我們現在預計今年的安裝基礎業務將比去年下降 5% 左右，而先前的成長則持平。

In summary, based on our full year, with higher DPV revenue, offset somewhat by lower expectations on our installed base business relative to last quarter, we still expect net sales for the year to grow towards 30%, with a slight improvement in gross margin compared to 2022. Overall, a very strong growth year, especially considering the industry being in the down cycle.

總而言之，基於我們全年的情況，隨著DPV 收入的增加，我們仍然預計今年的淨銷售額將增長至30%，毛利率略有改善，但在一定程度上被我們對安裝基礎業務的預期降低所抵銷與 2022 年相比。總體而言，這是成長非常強勁的一年，特別是考慮到該行業正處於下行週期。

On the geopolitical front as it relates to export controls, the U.S. government yesterday published updated export control regulations. A part of the regulations is an update from last year's October communication and part is the implementation of the U.S. regulation on the trilateral agreement between the Dutch, Japanese and U.S. governments. Given the length of the document, we need to review the final regulation thoroughly and make a detailed analysis, which will take some time. But based on our preliminary assessment, we do not expect these measures to have a material effect on our financial outlook for 2023.

在與出口管制相關的地緣政治方面，美國政府昨天發布了更新的出口管制法規。該規定的一部分是去年10月通訊的更新，一部分是美國對荷蘭、日本和美國政府三邊協議的規定的實施。由於文件篇幅較長，我們需要對最終規定進行全面審查並進行詳細分析，這需要一些時間。但根據我們的初步評估，我們預計這些措施不會對我們 2023 年的財務前景產生重大影響。

The export control measures could have an impact on the regional split of our shipments in the medium to long term, but we do not expect an impact on the global demand scenarios as communicated during our Investor Day in November last year, since the long-term growth perspectives for our industry remains clearly unchanged.

出口管制措施可能會對我們中長期出貨量的地區分佈產生影響，但我們預計不會對去年 11 月投資者日期間傳達的全球需求情景產生影響，因為長期來看我們行業的成長前景顯然沒有改變。

Looking towards the next year. The semiconductor industry is currently working through the bottom of the cycle and our customers expect the inflection to be visible by the end of this year, as I mentioned before. Although there's an opportunity for some demand to be pulled back into the back half of 2024, we currently prefer to take a more conservative view for the full year 2024, especially considering the inherent nature of the macroeconomic uncertainties. Therefore, based on our current view, we expect revenue next year to be similar to 2023. As such, we see 2024 as a transition year, but also as an important year to prepare for the significant growth that we expect in 2025.

展望明年。正如我之前提到的，半導體產業目前正處於週期的底部，我們的客戶預計到今年年底就會出現明顯的轉折點。儘管部分需求有機會回落至 2024 年下半年，但我們目前更傾向於對 2024 年全年採取更為保守的看法，特別是考慮到宏觀經濟不確定性的固有性質。因此，根據我們目前的觀點，我們預計明年的收入將與 2023 年相似。因此，我們將 2024 年視為過渡年，同時也是為我們預期的 2025 年大幅成長做好準備的重要一年。

Now based on discussions with our customers, we currently expect 2025 to be a strong year, driven by a number of factors. First, the secular growth drivers in the semiconductor end markets, which we have previously discussed, such as energy transition, electrification and AI. The expanding application space, along with increasing lithography on future technology nodes drives demand for both advanced and mature nodes. Secondly, the industry expects to be in the middle of a cyclical upturn in 2025, starting in 2024. And lastly, as mentioned earlier, we need to prepare for the significant number of new fabs that are being built across the globe. These fabs are spread geographically, are strategic for our customers and are scheduled to take our tools. It is essential that we keep our focus on the future and build capacity to be ready for this ramp.

現在，根據與客戶的討論，我們目前預計 2025 年將是強勁的一年，受到多種因素的推動。首先是我們之前討論過的半導體終端市場的長期成長驅動力，例如能源轉型、電氣化和人工智慧。不斷擴大的應用空間以及未來技術節點上光刻技術的增加推動了對先進和成熟節點的需求。其次，預計從 2024 年開始，該產業將在 2025 年進入週期性好轉。最後，如前所述，我們需要為全球各地正在建造的大量新晶圓廠做好準備。這些晶圓廠分佈廣泛，對我們的客戶具有戰略意義，並計劃採用我們的工具。我們必須關注未來並建立能力，為這一轉變做好準備。

In summary, despite going through an industry down cycle, we still expect very strong growth in our business this year. And while there are still significant uncertainties, primarily driven by the macro environment, it appears that we're passing through the bottom of this specific cycle, and the shape of the recovery will ultimately determine the demand curve beyond 2023.

總而言之，儘管經歷了行業下行週期，我們仍然預計今年的業務成長非常強勁。儘管仍然存在重大不確定性（主要是由宏觀環境驅動），但我們似乎正在經歷這個特定週期的底部，復甦的形狀將最終決定 2023 年以後的需求曲線。

In the near term, it's understandable that customers remain cautious as they moderate wafer output to help lower inventory levels in the supply chain and look to build confidence around the timing and slope of the recovery next year.

短期內，客戶保持謹慎態度是可以理解的，他們會減少晶圓產量，以幫助降低供應鏈中的庫存水平，並希望對明年復甦的時間和斜率建立信心。

In summary, we clearly view 2024 as a transition year. As we prepare for future growth and expect strong year in 2025 and beyond. We remain confident that we are well positioned for further long term growth as we discussed in the market scenarios for 2025 and 2030 during our Investor Day in November 2022. With that, we will be happy to take your questions.

綜上所述，我們明確將 2024 年視為過渡年。我們為未來的成長做好準備，並期待 2025 年及以後的強勁成長。正如我們在 2022 年 11 月的投資者日期間討論的 2025 年和 2030 年市場情景一樣，我們仍然相信我們已做好進一步長期增長的準備。因此，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. Beforehand, I'd like to ask you that you kindly limit yourself to 1 question with 1 short follow-up, if necessary. This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible. Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

謝謝你們，羅傑和彼得。接線生將立即指導您了解問答環節的協議。在此之前，我想請您在必要時將自己限制在 1 個問題並進行 1 次簡短的跟進。這將使我們能夠接觸到盡可能多的來電者。現在，接線員，請給我們最後的指示，然後問第一個問題，好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) We will now go to the first question. And your first question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們現在討論第一個問題。你的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

Curious -- embedded in your expectation for more muted kind of 2024. How do we think about the gross margin puts and takes just given there's several moving terms of like mix and you guys are seeing increasing your manufacturing output for later years. And then I think there's some benefit from higher EUV ASPs. At the same time, you're also going to start shipping initial high-NA tools as well.

好奇——嵌入在你對 2024 年更加平靜的預期中。考慮到有幾個類似的組合條件，而且你們會看到以後幾年的製造產量不斷增加，我們如何看待毛利率的下降和毛利率。然後我認為更高的 EUV ASP 會帶來一些好處。同時，您也將開始交付初始的高數值孔徑工具。

Yes, Joe, you're doing a very fine job in analyzing it all. Of course, we want to appreciate that we're not going to give guidance on -- quantitative guidance on the gross margin for next year. But I can give you some of the drivers of the gross margin. And I think you mentioned a few of them which are quite important.

是的，喬，你在分析這一切方面做得非常好。當然，我們要認識到，我們不會對明年的毛利率提供定量指引。但我可以給你一些毛利率的驅動因素。我認為你提到了其中一些非常重要的內容。

So I would say the 3800 ASP is clearly one, right? So 3800 is going to be an important part of the mix in next year for EUV. So obviously, as a higher ASP, we talked about more than EUR 200 million last -- on the call last quarter. So that comes with a higher ASP, but also drives the gross margin. So that's an important driver. I think service on EUV is one where we say we continue to make progress on that one. So that's another positive.

所以我想說 3800 ASP 顯然就是其中之一，對吧？因此，3800 將成為明年 EUV 組合的重要組成部分。顯然，作為更高的平均售價，我們在上個季度的電話會議上談到了超過 2 億歐元。因此，這帶來了更高的平均售價，同時也提高了毛利率。所以這是一個重要的驅動因素。我認為 EUV 服務是我們不斷進展的一項服務。這是另一個積極的方面。

I would say on the challenge side, so on the headwind that we're going to get in terms of gross margin for next year, it is, as you said, next year, we are preparing, obviously, for a big year in 2025 because that's the way we look at it, as we also mentioned -- as Peter mentioned and also said in the video it is going to be a big year and that means that we're going to add quite some capacity to actually allow that to happen. So that's going to going to have a headwind on the gross margins because those people will have to be trained in 2024, whilst primarily being productive only in 2025 and also on high-NA.

我想說的是，在挑戰方面，所以在明年毛利率方面的逆風中，正如你所說，明年，我們顯然正在為 2025 年的重要一年做準備因為這就是我們看待它的方式，正如我們也提到的那樣，正如彼得在影片中提到的那樣，這將是重要的一年，這意味著我們將增加相當多的容量，以實際允許這一點發生。因此，這將對毛利率產生不利影響，因為這些人必須在 2024 年接受培訓，而主要要到 2025 年才能發揮生產力，而且NA 也很高。

The high-NA numbers next year, obviously, are very, very small in terms of revenue and also output, but we are obviously preparing our workforce, both in the factory but also in the field to accommodate the '25 and beyond ramp of high-NA. So obviously, that also same story. A lot of people that will be added there will be a drag on the gross margin for 2024.

顯然，明年的高NA數字在收入和產量方面都非常非常小，但我們顯然正在為我們的勞動力做好準備，無論是在工廠還是在現場，以適應25年及以後的高增長-不適用。顯然，這也是同樣的故事。大量人員的加入將會拖累 2024 年的毛利率。

Question mark, obviously, is on the installed base business. We know that can go positively, again can go negatively on the gross margin, very much dependent on how the upgrade business will come back in 2024. And then finally, in light of all the puts and takes that you might think of in terms of revenue, also in light of what was -- what Peter just said, the China export controls, you could maybe see less immersion tools into China, also less on the high end. So that could also be a bit of a headwind on the gross margin. So that's it really, Joe. Those are all the puts and takes I would see today. And in the Q1 -- in the Q4 call in January of next year, I think, we will have a much better handle on how those -- all of those pan out.

顯然，問號是在安裝基礎業務。我們知道，這可能會對毛利率產生積極影響，也可能會產生負面影響，這在很大程度上取決於升級業務在2024 年將如何恢復。最後，考慮到您可能會想到的所有看跌期權和採取的措施收入，也考慮到彼得剛才所說的中國出口管制，你可能會看到進入中國的沉浸式工具減少，高端工具也減少。因此，這也可能對毛利率產生一定的不利影響。原來如此，喬。這些就是我今天看到的所有看跌期權和賣出期權。我認為，在第一季 - 在明年 1 月的第四季度電話會議中，我們將更好地處理這些 - 所有這些如何實現。

Got it. And then as a follow-up, just wanted to reconfirm, for fast shipment, you're expecting still to exit this year in terms of revenue not recognized in the EUR 2.3 billion range. And then does that get caught up next year as part of kind of a more muted growth that you're able to catch up to that demand?

知道了。然後作為後續行動，只是想再次確認，為了快速發貨，您預計今年仍會退出，但收入不會在 23 億歐元範圍內得到確認。那麼，明年這種情況是否會成為您能夠滿足這一需求的更溫和增長的一部分？

I think Joe, part of it will. The way we look at it today, but again, we will confirm that in more detail in January. But the way we look at it today, we expect less fast shipments by the end of '24 than we would have by the end of '23. So there would be a positive effect from fast shipment in the number for next year.

我想喬，部分會的。我們今天看待這個問題的方式，但我們將在一月份更詳細地確認這一點。但從我們今天的角度來看，我們預計 24 年底的出貨速度將低於 23 年底的出貨速度。因此，明年的快速出貨會對數量產生正面影響。

Got it. And that EUR 2.3 billion is still the right number, exiting this year?

知道了。今年退出的 23 億歐元仍然是正確的數字嗎？

The EUR 2.3 billion is what we're currently driving toward. That's what we expect at this stage to have shipments this year, not recognizing revenue this year, correct.

23 億歐元是我們目前的目標。這就是我們現階段預計今年的出貨量，而不是確認今年的收入，正確的。

We will now go to our next question. And the next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.

現在我們將討論下一個問題。下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

I have 2 of them. When you look into calendar '24, how to think of you -- from a unit standpoint, EUV and DPUV, how do we look at unit for EUV and DPUV in 2024 relative to 2023? Would it be up, down, similar? Any color there would be helpful. And then I have a follow-up.

我有 2 個。當您查看日曆 '24 時，如何看待您 - 從單位角度來看，EUV 和 DPUV，相對於 2023 年，我們如何看待 2024 年 EUV 和 DPUV 的單位？會向上、向下、類似嗎？任何顏色都會有幫助。然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. I think on the DPUV, I think Roger said it in the answer to the previous call. In the DPUV, of course, we've had a great year for China because we were basically delivering out of the backlog. These guys ordered and the orders were there, they were pre-paid and we had the opportunity to ship. I don't think that will repeat itself in that volume so much next year. And on top of that, of course, there is a new export control regulation that will put, let's say, as a handful of Chinese fabs under the export control rules where we cannot ship immersion tools, just a handful of, but it's still -- it is still sales that we had in 2023 that we'll not have in 2024.

是的。我認為關於 DPUV，我認為羅傑在之前電話的答覆中已經說過了。當然，在 DPUV 中，我們在中國度過了美好的一年，因為我們基本上已經完成了積壓訂單的交付。這些人下訂單了，訂單就在那裡，它們是預付款的，我們有機會發貨。我認為明年這種情況不會在該卷中重演。當然，最重要的是，還有一項新的出口管制法規，可以說，少數中國晶圓廠將受到出口管制規則的約束，我們不能運送浸入式工具，只是少數，但它仍然 - - 2023 年的銷售額仍然是2024 年的銷售額。

So I think DPUV could see some reduction. Based on that now, if the sales stay the same or at a similar level than EUV grows. But the -- what Roger also said, as an answer to the previous question, we do expect that fast shipments going out of 2024 will be lower. So there's going to be, you could say, an accounting windfall on the top line. So I think, all in all, this is a bit of the picture. So somewhat lower DPUV units -- EUV units could be lower because of the fact that we actually have -- although we could see revenue increase as a result of the fast shipment move could indeed be also somewhat lower, but with higher sales prices. So this is what the picture is for next year.

所以我認為 DPUV 可能會減少。基於目前的情況，如果銷售額保持與 EUV 成長相同或相似的水平。但是，羅傑也說過，作為對上一個問題的回答，我們確實預期 2024 年後的快速出貨量將會更低。因此，你可以說，這將是一筆會計上的意外之財。所以我認為，總而言之，這只是一個大概的情況。因此，DPUV 單位有所降低——EUV 單位可能會更低，因為我們實際上擁有——儘管我們可以看到由於快速出貨而導致的收入增加，確實也可能有所降低，但銷售價格更高。這就是明年的情況。

Now like Roger also said, probably January after the fourth quarter results is probably the better time to go into a bit more detail. But directionally, that's what you can expect.

現在，就像羅傑也說的那樣，可能在第四季度業績公佈之後的一月可能是更詳細地了解更多細節的更好時機。但從方向上來說，這就是你可以期待的。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful, Peter. And then on China, I understand it was like 46% of sales last quarter, probably averages around 30% for the full year. If you strip out the export control issues or the geopolitics, a lot of these spending is on mature nodes. Kind of curious how long do you think this level of spending is sustainable? Or do you think at some point, there's going to be a natural consolidation or rationalization of this spending.

知道了。知道了。這非常有幫助，彼得。然後在中國，據我了解，上季銷售額的 46% 左右，全年平均可能在 30% 左右。如果排除出口管制問題或地緣政治問題，許多支出都花在成熟的節點上。有點好奇你認為這種支出水準可以持續多久？或者你認為在某個時候，這種支出將會自然整合或合理化。

Yes. I think you have to understand where these tools are being used for. The vast majority of our shipments to China is mid critical to mature. And that's really where our business is. Of course, like I said earlier, there's a handful of fabs -- not customers, fabs that have been identified as ready for advanced semiconductor manufacturing. So those will -- those are now excluded but the vast majority is mid-critical to mature.

是的。我認為你必須了解這些工具的用途。我們向中國發貨的絕大多數都處於成熟期。這確實是我們的業務所在。當然，正如我之前所說，有少數晶圓廠——不是客戶，而是已被確定為先進半導體製造做好準備的晶圓廠。所以那些將會——那些現在被排除在外，但絕大多數都處於中等成熟階段。

Will that level off? I don't think so. And why don't I think so? Because you need to realize where those chips are being used for. I mean China is, by far over 50% of all worldwide investments in renewable energy is in China. That's wind, that's solar, that's the buildup of the grid, the electrification, the buildup of the EV manufacturing capacity in China is significant. Industrial IoT is a significant driver. Next to that is also the continuous telecommunications infrastructure rollout. That's all mid-critical to mature stuff.

這會趨於平穩嗎？我不這麼認為。為什麼我不這麼認為呢？因為你需要了解這些晶片的用途。我的意思是，迄今為止，全球再生能源投資的 50% 以上都在中國。那是風能，那是太陽能，那是電網的建設，電氣化，中國電動車製造能力的建設是重要的。工業物聯網是重要的驅動因素。其次是電信基礎設施的持續推出。這對於成熟的東西來說都是中等關鍵的。

And as it happens here, China invests a lot there. It's a big country of 1.4 billion people. So there is a lot of semiconductor need. And this is exactly when we look at the expansion plans of our Chinese customers, this is exactly what -- where they are putting their capacity at work in these areas. And if you look at the total consumption of semiconductors by the Chinese manufacturing industry, then China imports more semiconductors than they import oil.

正如這裡所發生的那樣，中國在那裡進行了大量投資。這是一個擁有14億人口的大國。所以有很多半導體需求。這正是當我們審視中國客戶的擴張計畫時，這正是他們在這些領域發揮能力的地方。如果你看一下中國製造業的半導體總消費量，那麼中國進口的半導體比進口的石油還多。

On top of that, you'll see the significant increase in these new transitions. That means that if China wants to come to a certain level of self-sufficiency, they have still a huge gap to cover to be completely self-sufficient. So it's also logical that they actually invest in this type of semiconductor technology because it's for internal use. And I think -- so it's -- I don't think we will see a peak this year. And actually, I think, there will be going forward the significant demand coming out of China for mid-critical and mature technology. And for all the reasons that I just mentioned.

最重要的是，您將看到這些新轉變的顯著增加。這意味著，如果中國想要達到一定程度的自給自足，距離完全自給自足還有巨大差距。因此，他們實際上投資這種類型的半導體技術也是合乎邏輯的，因為它是內部使用的。我認為，所以，我認為今年我們不會看到高峰。事實上，我認為，未來中國將對中關鍵和成熟技術產生巨大需求。由於我剛才提到的所有原因。

We will now go to the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc from Societe Generale.

我們現在進入下一個問題。您的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Aleksander Peterc。

Could you help us understand what is the percentage of shipments into China this year that would actually fall under the restrictions that will be in place for the first of January next year. That will be my first question. And then the follow-up just very briefly, you could tell us how far out you currently booked in EUV into 2024 for -- in DPUV.

您能否幫助我們了解今年運往中國的貨物中實際受到明年 1 月 1 日實施的限制的百分比是多少？這是我的第一個問題。然後非常簡單地進行後續跟進，您可以告訴我們您目前在 EUV 中預訂到 2024 年的 DPUV 時間有多長。

Okay. I'm just writing down. So on the -- on China question what -- the percentage shipment this year that is now excluded, it's anywhere between 10% and 15%. So the vast majority is mature and mid-critical and I think, like I said in answer to the previous call, I mean that is what will basically remain because of the build-out of that capacity is actually needed for all the transitions that I just mentioned. So it's 10% to 15%.

好的。我只是寫下來。因此，就中國問題而言，今年的出貨量百分比現在被排除在外，介於 10% 到 15% 之間。因此，絕大多數都是成熟的和中等關鍵的，我認為，就像我在回答之前的電話會議時所說的那樣，我的意思是，這基本上會保留下來，因為我所進行的所有轉型其實都需要建立這種能力。剛才提到的。所以是10%到15%。

And on the EUV backlog, I mean we're currently looking at a backlog of around EUR 19 billion for EUV but of course, that is a combination of the shipments that we -- still have to go this year. And then for '24 and '25. And by the way, it also includes high-NA. So that's -- so there is a substantial part of the shipments that we envisage in '24 are included, but not everything, but a substantial part is covered by the EUV backlog as I just referenced it.

至於 EUV 積壓，我的意思是，我們目前正在考慮約 190 億歐元的 EUV 積壓，但當然，這是我們今年仍然必須完成的出貨量的組合。然後是'24和'25。順便說一句，它還包括高數值孔徑。因此，我們預計 24 年出貨量的很大一部分都包括在內，但不是全部，但正如我剛才提到的那樣，很大一部分是由 EUV 積壓訂單涵蓋的。

Okay. Great. It's just the 3800 will be -- so next year is 3800, right?

好的。偉大的。只是 3800 將會 - 所以明年是 3800，對吧？

No, no. Next year will be a mix of 3600 and 3800.

不，不。明年將是 3600 和 3800 的混合。

We will now go to the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Sara Russo from Bernstein.

我們現在進入下一個問題。你的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的薩拉·魯索（Sara Russo）。

So in your results package, you had indicated that you're seeing Memory utilization remaining on the low side and -- but you're beginning to see some recovery in Logic and sort of indicated potential bottoming of the cycle later this year. Can you give us any more specifics on the utilization levels and trends across Memory versus Logic, any different. Like more specifics on the differences you're seeing across those end markets?

因此，在您的結果包中，您已經表明您看到內存利用率仍處於較低水平，並且 - 但您開始看到邏輯方面有所恢復，並且表明今年晚些時候該週期可能觸底。您能否為我們提供有關內存與邏輯的利用率水平和趨勢的更多詳細資訊（有什麼不同）嗎？想了解您在這些終端市場中看到的差異的更多細節嗎？

I'm not going to give you precise utilization levels because they're all different for our customers, but it is bottoming out on Logic. That's what we've seen. I think we've already indicated that I think last quarter that we saw this very early first indication. I think that has continued. So -- which is good. And also, I think that you need to look at that in the context of what I said earlier that inventory levels downstream are normalizing and upstream is still a bit elevated. So this is in that context that, that makes all sense.

我不會向您提供精確的利用率水平，因為它們對於我們的客戶來說都是不同的，但 Logic 的利用率已經觸底。這就是我們所看到的。我認為我們已經表明，我認為上個季度我們看到了這個非常早期的第一個跡象。我認為這種情況一直持續著。所以——這很好。而且，我認為你需要在我之前所說的背景下看待這一點，即下游庫存水準正在正常化，而上游庫存水準仍然有點高。因此，在這種背景下，這一切都是有道理的。

I think on Memory, we don't see that upturn yet. So we just have to look at and just follow this closely, when that will happen. But generally, when we see this upturn in Logic somewhere down the line, Memory will follow, yes. Logic working without Memory is not -- does not make sense either. So it's probably a timing issue but we'll follow it closely. And like I said, there are other indications. Also some articles that I just read last week from Korea that for the first time in 12 months you see NAND shipments going up. First the indications of DRAM spot prices going up. Now these are early indicators. So that's why our expectation is that what we have seen for Logic now over the last 3 months will also follow in Memory.

我認為在內存方面，我們還沒有看到這種好轉。因此，當這種情況發生時，我們必須密切注意並密切注意。但一般來說，當我們看到邏輯的這種好轉時，記憶就會隨之而來，是的。沒有記憶的邏輯也沒有意義。所以這可能是時間問題，但我們會密切注意。正如我所說，還有其他跡象。還有我上週剛讀到的一些來自韓國的文章，其中 12 個月以來首次看到 NAND 出貨量上升。首先是 DRAM 現貨價格上漲的跡象。現在這些都是早期指標。因此，我們預期過去 3 個月在 Logic 中所看到的情況也會在 Memory 中出現。

And maybe just a follow-up on the backlog topic. So in the past, you've given us a sense for what share of the backlog is China demand. And it's sort of -- lot of 2022 orders led to the significant increase in China. Have you seen that shift at all? It was sort of sitting around 20%? Is that shifted down now that you're able to ship more to China and meet more of those orders? Has that come down? Or does that continue to remain in that range?

也許只是待辦事項主題的後續行動。過去，您已經讓我們了解了中國需求在積壓訂單中所佔的比例。 2022 年的許多訂單導致了中國市場的大幅成長。你看過這種轉變嗎？大概是 20% 左右吧？既然你們能夠向中國運送更多貨物並滿足更多訂單，這種情況是否會有所改變？那已經下來了嗎？還是繼續保持在這個範圍？

No, I think it's the same. I think we said the China part of our business this year could be over 20%. And I think it's about the same range for the backlog. So that has remained the same.

不，我認為是一樣的。我想我們說過今年中國業務的比例可能會超過20%。我認為積壓訂單的範圍大致相同。所以這仍然是一樣的。

We will now go to the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Francois Bouvignies from UBS.

我們現在進入下一個問題。您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Francois Bouvignies。

Just 2 quick ones for me. The first one is on maybe 2025. So you gave your market -- low end market, high scenario at your Capital Markets Day. I'm now looking at the current macro environment, I guess, for many people, it's actually, we are more in a low market scenario, at least today in terms of macro. And if we look at your guidance on 2025 and taking into account the geopolitical environment, should we lean towards the low end of your guidance in a way? I mean it would still imply a significant recovery in 2025, but I just wanted to check if it's fair to assume, given the current [iteration] rate in the industry and the pushout that you are also seeing on your side, if you lean towards the low end of your guidance and I have a quick follow-up.

對我來說只有 2 個快速的。第一個可能是 2025 年。所以你在資本市場日給了你的市場——低端市場、高端市場。我現在正在關注當前的宏觀環境，我想，對於很多人來說，實際上，我們更處於低市場環境中，至少今天就宏觀而言是如此。如果我們看看你們對 2025 年的指導，並考慮到地緣政治環境，我們是否應該在某種程度上傾向於你們指導的低端？我的意思是，這仍然意味著 2025 年將出現顯著復甦，但我只是想檢查一下這樣的假設是否公平，考慮到行業當前的[迭代]率以及您也看到的退出，如果您傾向於你的指導的低端，我有一個快速的跟進。

Well, I mean, let me explain the following. I think our industry is cyclical, when we're in a downturn, and the deeper the downturn is the higher the upturn. And that's simply because the underlying trend, there's a secular trend of the capacity that is needed to support all these transitions that we all talk about and we all believe in. It has a downturn for whatever reason, it could be macro. It could be macroeconomic shocks. The deeper the downturn is, the higher the upturn. That has been -- if you just look at the 30-year cyclical behavior of our industry, that's exactly what is always happening. And it makes sense because the underlying trend is there.

好吧，我的意思是，讓我解釋一下以下內容。我認為我們的產業是週期性的，當我們處於低迷時期時，低迷越深，好轉就越高。這只是因為潛在的趨勢，即支持我們都在談論和相信的所有這些轉型所需的能力的長期趨勢。無論出於何種原因，它都會出現衰退，這可能是宏觀的。這可能是宏觀經濟衝擊。低迷越深，好轉程度越高。如果你看看我們產業 30 年的週期性行為，你會發現這種情況一直在發生。這是有道理的，因為潛在的趨勢就在那裡。

Now having said that, in my introductory comments, there are actually 3 reasons for why we believe 2025 is going to be a very strong year. One is these secular trends. They are there. And also it actually will -- it actually means that we need to build the capacity to support those trends. And if you don't build the capacity in 2023, 2024, and for Memory, it's even started earlier, it started in mid-2022, then it will have to be there to support those secular trends, which we all believe in. So -- and also going back to that, that's number one.

話雖如此，在我的介紹性評論中，實際上有 3 個理由讓我們相信 2025 年將是非常強勁的一年。一是這些長期趨勢。他們就在那裡。而且它實際上會——這實際上意味著我們需要建立支持這些趨勢的能力。如果你不在 2023 年、2024 年建立產能，對於記憶體來說，甚至更早開始，從 2022 年中期開始，那麼它就必須支援我們都相信的長期趨勢。所以——同樣地回到這一點，這是第一位的。

Number two, in answer to the previous question, it feels like and also our customers keep telling us that they feel there is a trough. We're in the trough or we're very close. And that means they will see growth in 2024. You could argue about the slope of the growth because of macroeconomic uncertainty. But they all tell us, please prepare for 2025. So they strongly believe that growing in 2024 will probably start slow, but will accelerate into 2025. So they tell us, be ready. That's number two.

第二，在回答上一個問題時，感覺就像我們的客戶不斷告訴我們，他們覺得有一個低潮。我們正處於低谷，或者我們已經非常接近了。這意味著他們將在 2024 年實現成長。由於宏觀經濟的不確定性，你可能會爭論成長的斜率。但他們都告訴我們，請為 2025 年做好準備。所以他們堅信，2024 年的增長可能會開始緩慢，但到 2025 年會加速。所以他們告訴我們，做好準備。這是第二位。

Number three, when you look at the number of new fabs that are being opened geographically, fab extension that will need machines in Europe, in the U.S., across Asia, yes? Then that is already when we look at the demand, already more than 50% of our 2025 forecasted demand is on new fabs for DPV and EUV. So if you put it all together, also realizing that we actually look at 2024 and '25 together. Why is that? Because our lead times are more than 12 months. For EUV they are 1.5 years. So we need to have that very close connection with our customers. And we have these insights into these new fab expansions, not so much where they're going to add capacity for the existing fabs because that's basically -- that is a question of where the cycle is. If you take those 3 things together, and then we look at the demand that we're currently discussing with our customers, then 2025 is a very strong year and a very strong year doesn't jibe with your low end of the guidance.

第三，當你看到在不同地區開設的新工廠數量時，工廠擴建將需要歐洲、美國和整個亞洲的機器，是嗎？當我們審視需求時，我們 2025 年預測需求的 50% 以上都來自 DPV 和 EUV 的新工廠。因此，如果你把所有這些放在一起，你也會意識到我們實際上把 2024 年和 25 年放在一起考慮。這是為什麼？因為我們的交貨時間超過 12 個月。 EUV 為 1.5 年。因此，我們需要與客戶保持非常密切的聯繫。我們對這些新的晶圓廠擴建有了這些見解，而不是他們將為現有晶圓廠增加產能的地方，因為這基本上是一個週期在哪裡的問題。如果你把這三件事放在一起，然後我們看看我們目前正在與客戶討論的需求，那麼2025 年將是非常強勁的一年，而非常強勁的一年與你的指導的低端並不相符。

So it's -- again, it's the cyclical nature of this industry. We are now -- let's take Memory. If 2024 is not a full recovery year, then Memory is in a downturn of 2.5 years. Just look at it historically, always followed by a strong recovery. Same is true for Logic. And if we look at those building blocks -- of those 3 building blocks, that gives us the conviction at this moment in time, that 2025 is going to be -- is a very strong year.

所以，這也是這個產業的周期性。我們現在——讓我們以記憶為例。如果2024年不是全面復甦的一年，那麼記憶體將陷入2.5年的低迷。只要看看歷史，總是伴隨著強勁的復甦。邏輯也是如此。如果我們看看這些組成部分——在這三個組成部分中，我們此時此刻就確信 2025 年將是非常強勁的一年。

But then we need to prepare 2024, we can simply not wait until first quarter 2025. And then we start accelerating because the supply chain won't be there. Our lead times are simply too long. So we have to prepare that also in the year 2024. That's why it's a transition year. We look at '24, 2025 together. Why? Because the lead times of our tools and discussions with customers are actually supporting all of that. Sorry for the long answer.

但我們需要為 2024 年做好準備，我們不能等到 2025 年第一季。然後我們開始加速，因為供應鏈不會在那裡。我們的交貨時間實在太長了。所以我們也必須在 2024 年做好準備。這就是為什麼它是一個過渡年。我們一起展望 2025 年 24 日。為什麼？因為我們工具的交付時間以及與客戶的討論實際上支持了這一切。抱歉回答太長。

No, no, that's very clear. And maybe as a follow-up then. If we have long lead times and strong recovery in 2025, the orders, I mean, this quarter has been, let's say, quite low compared to many people expected. But if you expect a very strong year in 2025 and the lead times that you are describing, do we expect that to see in the order behavior in the first half of 2024? I mean if we take into account lead times? Or how should we think about that because we should see the evidence of that, right?

不不不，這已經很清楚了。也許作為後續行動。如果我們的交貨時間較長且 2025 年復甦強勁，那麼我的意思是，本季度的訂單與許多人的預期相比相當低。但是，如果您預計 2025 年會非常強勁，並且您所描述的交貨時間會非常強勁，那麼我們是否預計 2024 年上半年的訂單行為會出現這種情況？我的意思是我們是否考慮到交貨時間？或者我們應該如何思考這一點，因為我們應該看到這方面的證據，對嗎？

No, I think that's absolutely true. We're in Q3 of 2023. And we have more than EUR 35 billion in the backlog. If you're a customer, you can actually wait because they also see 2024 as a recovery year. It's going to be Q3, Q4, Q1 -- so we said, so they will just wait because they don't need, they have the capacity. If they want the capacity, they can just call it off. So -- but indeed, you are right. If 2025 is the kind of strong year that we expect then indeed, we would have to see the order recovery in the first half of 2024, absolutely.

不，我認為這絕對是真的。我們已進入 2023 年第三季。我們的積壓訂單已超過 350 億歐元。如果您是客戶，您實際上可以等待，因為他們也將 2024 年視為復甦年。這將是第三季、第四季、第一季——所以我們說，所以他們只會等待，因為他們不需要，他們有能力。如果他們想要容量，他們可以取消。所以——但事實上，你是對的。如果 2025 年確實是我們預期的強勁年份，那麼我們絕對會在 2024 年上半年看到訂單復甦。

We will now go to the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Rolf Bulk from New Street Research.

我們現在進入下一個問題。您的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Rolf Bulk。

In your prepared remarks, you mentioned shifts in timing of say, your present customers, their demand profile. Could you give us a bit more detail on this? Are these pushouts primarily on the leading edge? Or is it more trailing edge? And that this trend of pushouts increased in recent months?

在您準備好的發言中，您提到了您目前的客戶及其需求狀況的時間變化。您能為我們提供更多細節嗎？這些推出主要是在前沿嗎？還是更落後？近幾個月來，這種退出趨勢是否增加？

Yes. I think -- when you think about trailing edge, I mean, we did not see push out from many of our trailing edge customers because many of them are in China. But even ones that are not in China because they are supplying the mature market which for instance supplies the automotive industry and industrial IoT, they actually kept pretty strong. They were pretty healthy. So it is more in, you could argue, the leading edge than it was in a mature area. And don't forget, leading-edge doesn't only need high-end DPV or needs high-end immersion. It also needs mature, it's needs KrF, it needs i-Line. So -- but if you want to split this, then the demand shift was probably more in those areas where -- which is logical, look at the end markets, smartphone sales, PCs. The end markets where -- and that is where the inventory was. So this is also the area where you see the demand shifts.

是的。我認為，當你想到後緣時，我的意思是，我們沒有看到許多後緣客戶的推出，因為他們中的許多人都在中國。但即使是那些不在中國的公司，因為他們供應成熟的市場，例如供應汽車行業和工業物聯網，他們實際上也保持著相當強勁的勢頭。他們非常健康。因此，你可能會說，它比成熟領域更處於領先地位。並且不要忘記，領先不僅需要高端 DPV 或需要高端沉浸感。它還需要成熟，需要KrF，需要i-Line。所以 - 但如果你想分開這個，那麼需求轉移可能更多地發生在那些領域 - 這是合乎邏輯的，看看終端市場、智慧型手機銷售、個人電腦。終端市場在那裡——那就是庫存所在。因此，這也是您看到需求改變的領域。

But healthy or actually relatively healthy was more in the mature space. And of course, China because we heavily undershipped these customers, which, of course, their orders in the order book and all -- and most of them were to a large extent pre-paid, of course, we will ship those tools to them if others don't want them. And that's all mature.

但健康或實際上相對健康更多的是在成熟領域。當然，在中國，因為我們對這些客戶的發貨量嚴重不足，當然，他們的訂單都在訂單簿中，其中大多數在很大程度上是預付費的，當然，我們會將這些工具運送給他們如果其他人不想要它們。這一切都已經成熟了。

We will now go to our next question. And the next question comes from the line of Didier Scemama, Bank of America.

現在我們將討論下一個問題。下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Didier Scemama。

It's Didier Scemama from Bank of America. I have a couple of questions. First, I wanted to just probe you a little bit again on 2025 revenue guide. I think you answered pretty well. But I guess what I wanted to ask you is if we don't see those bookings coming through in the first half of '24, is that roughly in July '24, where you would consider changing that guidance or at least telling us that you would be towards the low end of that range or even below that? And I've got a follow-up.

我是美國銀行的迪迪埃‧斯塞馬瑪 (Didier Scemama)。我有一些問題。首先，我想再次向大家探討 2025 年收入指南。我覺得你回答得很好。但我想我想問您的是，如果我們沒有看到這些預訂在 24 年上半年完成，大約是在 24 年 7 月，您會考慮更改該指導或至少告訴我們您會接近該範圍的低端甚至低於該範圍嗎？我還有後續行動。

Well, you by now know Didier, because we know each other for a long time. We just tell you how it is, how we see the world at the moment that we have this call. This is how we see the world. So if we see the growth by Q1 of 2024 different, we will tell you. If we see it different by Q2 2024, we will tell you.

好吧，你現在已經認識迪迪埃了，因為我們認識很久了。我們只是告訴你情況如何，在我們接到這個電話的那一刻我們如何看待世界。這就是我們看待世界的方式。因此，如果我們看到 2024 年第一季的成長有所不同，我們會告訴您。如果到 2024 年第二季我們發現情況有所不同，我們會告訴您。

So yes, this is what we currently see, what we currently believe. If the world turns out to be completely different, better or worse, by the middle of 2024, we will tell you. And so I cannot answer that question other than we'll just tell you how it is.

所以是的，這就是我們目前所看到的，我們目前所相信的。如果到 2024 年中期，世界變得完全不同，無論是好是壞，我們都會告訴您。所以我無法回答這個問題，除非我們只是告訴你它是怎麼回事。

Makes sense. Second part on China restrictions. Is there anything you can share with us with regards to the sort of tools that might not be allowed to be shipped to those fabs? I mean, should we consider the 1980 to be part of the banned tools for those particular fabs, but that you could ship it to other China customers? Or is it too early to say at this stage?

說得通。第二部分是關於中國的限制。關於可能不允許運送到這些晶圓廠的工具類型，您有什麼可以與我們分享的嗎？我的意思是，我們是否應該將 1980 視為那些特定晶圓廠禁用工具的一部分，但您可以將其運送給其他中國客戶？還是現階段說這個還太早？

No, I think that's probably not too early. It is as you indicated. So the way we read the rules now, and of course, you can imagine that part of the regulation we've read pretty carefully, that the principle is that -- in principle also the 1980s would fall under the export control restrictions, but only when those immersion tools are used for advanced semiconductor manufacturing. And those advanced semiconductor manufacturing, we've been informed only applies to a handful of fabs.

不，我認為這可能還不算太早。正如你所指出的。所以我們現在閱讀規則的方式，當然，你可以想像我們已經非常仔細地閱讀了規則的一部分，其原則是 - 原則上 20 世紀 80 年代也將受到出口管制限制，但僅當這些浸入式工具用於先進半導體製造時。據我們所知，那些先進的半導體製造僅適用於少數晶圓廠。

So that means that the 1980 for those handful of fabs is off limits, but not for the vast majority of our Chinese customers, for which we don't need an export control license either. We can just ship. And those are for the mature and lower mid-critical chips that are needed for all the transitions that I just mentioned. So, yes.

因此，這意味著 1980 年對少數晶圓廠來說是禁區，但對我們絕大多數中國客戶來說並非如此，我們也不需要出口管制許可證。我們可以直接出貨。這些是針對我剛才提到的所有過渡所需的成熟和中低關鍵晶片。所以，是的。

So that the majority of your immersion revenues next year in China will be at least some of the 1980 but probably move to 1950, 1930 sort of things for those customers?

那麼明年你們在中國的大部分沉浸式收入將至少是 1980 年的一部分，但對於這些客戶來說可能會轉向 1950 年、1930 年之類的情況？

No, no, because the 1980 is the low-end immersion tool. So the only export controls will be on the 1980 that go to a handful of fabs.

不，不，因為 1980 是低端沉浸式工具。因此，唯一的出口管制將是針對少數晶圓廠的 1980 年產品。

So (inaudible) 1980?

那麼（聽不清楚）1980 年？

Yes, for all the other customers, which are using those chips for non-advanced semiconductor manufacturing that is actually used for mid-critical, lower mid-critical mature applications where there are no security concerns, yes, we can just ship those. And that's the majority of our business.

是的，對於所有其他客戶來說，他們將這些晶片用於非先進半導體製造，這些晶片實際上用於中關鍵、中低關鍵成熟應用，不存在安全問題，是的，我們可以只運送這些晶片。這就是我們的大部分業務。

We will now go to our next question. And the next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from Susquehanna.

現在我們將討論下一個問題。下一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納的邁赫迪·胡賽尼 (Mehdi Hosseini)。

A couple of questions. Peter, I'm a little bit confused -- and I'm just going to focus on lithography, I am not going to ask you about WFEs or where we are in the semiconductor cycle. When I look at the leading edge, we've had a couple of years of a slower start to 3-nanometer. As a matter of fact, the leading edge has been trending in half pitch and I was hoping that by next year, there will be a bigger demand for leading edge among foundry and your Logic customer. But what I get from you is probably EUV unit shipping is going to decline.

有幾個問題。彼得，我有點困惑——我只想專注於光刻，我不會問你有關 WFE 的問題或我們在半導體週期中的位置。當我觀察前沿時，我們已經經歷了幾年緩慢的 3 奈米起步。事實上，前沿趨勢一直是半節距，我希望到明年，代工廠和邏輯客戶對前沿的需求將會更大。但我從你那裡得到的是 EUV 單位出貨量可能會下降。

What I want to ask you or get clarification, is this a kind of a pause as we insert a gate all around. Is this something that happened when we went from planar to FinFET and we're going to see a repeat of that next year. And then that would impact your EUV shipment? Any further around, gate all around would be appreciated. And I have a follow-up.

我想問你或得到澄清的是，當我們在周圍插入一扇門時，這是一種停頓。當我們從平面轉向 FinFET 時，是否會發生這種情況？明年我們將看到相同的情況重演。那麼這會影響您的 EUV 出貨量嗎？如果再遠一些，周圍都有門，我們將不勝感激。我有一個後續行動。

I think gate all around and the nodes associated with that are 2025, 2026, high-volume ramps. That will happen. So that -- so because of -- I say, the pause or a lower unit shipment of EUV next year is simply the cause of what we discussed earlier. I mean, we're in a cyclical downturn and our end markets that don't need that full capacity. So this is the reason.

我認為周圍的大門和與之相關的節點是 2025 年、2026 年的高容量坡道。那將會發生。所以——所以因為——我說，明年 EUV 的暫停或單位出貨量下降只是我們之前討論的原因。我的意思是，我們正處於週期性衰退，我們的終端市場不需要全部產能。所以這就是原因。

The R&D road maps are very much intact. And as a matter of fact, our leading customers keep telling us this, yes? So I would not expect -- I would even say, if you would see the HVM volume ramp on the gate all around architecture, it's just the reason -- one of the reasons why I think 2025, 2026 is going to be a good year. It's a very strong year. But everything that we see today, it's got nothing to do with that. It's got nothing to do with the road map. It's just got to do with the fact that we are in a down cycle, and we're climbing out of the down cycle, whereby the capacity utilization also at the leading edge is, of course, not at 100%. We just have to grow into it. It's got to happen. It's just the cycle.

研發路線圖非常完整。事實上，我們的主要客戶一直告訴我們這一點，對嗎？因此，我不會期望 - 我什至會說，如果你會看到 HVM 數量在整個架構上出現增長，這就是原因 - 我認為 2025 年、2026 年將是美好一年的原因之一。這是非常強勁的一年。但我們今天看到的一切都與此無關。和路線圖沒關係。這與我們正處於下行週期有關，而且我們正在走出下行週期，產能利用率也處於領先地位，當然，並不是100%。我們只需要成長就好了。這一定會發生。這只是循環。

One difference this time compared to when we migrated to FinFET is DRAM adoption of insertion of higher EUV layer counts for DRAM. If I were to go back to your 2022 and 2021 Analyst Day, you highlighted the fact that more than 30% of EUV demand by 2025 is going to be driven by DRAM. Is that still the case? And could that make the EUV recovery much stronger with or without the adverse impact of transistor change?

與我們遷移到 FinFET 時相比，這次的一個差異是 DRAM 採用了為 DRAM 插入更高的 EUV 層數。如果我回到 2022 年和 2021 年分析師日，您強調了這樣一個事實：到 2025 年，超過 30% 的 EUV 需求將由 DRAM 驅動。現在還是這樣嗎？無論是否有晶體管變化的不利影響，這都會使 EUV 恢復更加強勁嗎？

Yes. I think that's absolutely true. I still believe that percentage is still valid. But like I said, it is not today, but this is because we are where we are in the economic cycle. So I think nothing has changed in that sense. And you could even argue because they have "underinvested" in '23, '24 that will definitely be an additional driver on top of the road map insertion points, they haven't changed, yes? So yes, I mean, I would expect that to be the case in 2025, yes.

是的。我認為這絕對是真的。我仍然相信這個百分比仍然有效。但就像我說的，不是今天，而是因為我們正處於經濟週期。所以我認為從這個意義上來說什麼都沒有改變。你甚至可以爭論，因為他們在 23、24 年“投資不足”，這肯定會成為路線圖插入點之上的額外驅動因素，他們沒有改變，是嗎？所以，是的，我的意思是，我預計 2025 年會出現這種情況，是的。

We just have to wait for the first half of '24 to see that in your bookings?

我們只需等待 24 年上半年就能在您的預訂中看到這一點？

Yes, yes. And that is basically also -- I said it before. It's why we are conservative on 2024 because there are macroeconomic uncertainties. And our customers are closely watching this also. They're watching these inflection points trends. I mean that is what we will also follow with them. They have a better view of inventories. We have a better view of utilization, we have a better view of the things that happened in the fab. We need to look at those inflection points and saying, okay, that means the trough but then what will be the slope of the recovery. And that's basically a macro call.

是的是的。這基本上也是──我之前說的。這就是為什麼我們對 2024 年持保守態度，因為宏觀經濟存在不確定性。我們的客戶也在密切關注這一點。他們正在觀察這些拐點趨勢。我的意思是，我們也將遵循這一點。他們對庫存有更好的了解。我們可以更好地了解利用率，我們可以更好地了解晶圓廠中發生的事情。我們需要看看這些拐點，然後說，好吧，這意味著低谷，但復甦的斜率是多少。這基本上是一個巨集調用。

We will now go to the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Sandeep Deshpande from JPMorgan.

我們現在進入下一個問題。您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

Peter, I mean with response to an earlier question, you talked about that you will start seeing this order recovery potentially in 2024, which will help your 2025. But given that at this point, what you see into 2024, the demand is not as much as your capacity, particularly in EUV, would you prebuild? Because, I mean, your tools don't have any obsolescence risk. This is my first question. I have one quick follow-up.

彼得，我的意思是，在回答先前的問題時，您談到您可能會在2024 年開始看到訂單恢復，這將有助於您的2025 年。但考慮到目前，您對2024 年的看法，需求並不像您會根據您的能力（尤其是 EUV）進行預先建置嗎？因為，我的意思是，您的工具沒有任何過時的風險。這是我的第一個問題。我有一個快速跟進。

Yes, I think you're absolutely right. I mean we are very -- also our customers keep telling us this. This is not that we are in perfect isolation on the 20th floor in a town called Veldhoven, think about this, is because our customers also show us what they need and why? So this is the 2025, we think is very real. So that means we need to prebuild. So you will see that in our working capital and the working capital of our suppliers. And if things change a bit faster, we will actually need that in the back half of 2024. So we need to prepare ourselves. But you're absolutely right. If it looks otherwise, you won't be able to react. And then we're in a super crisis in 2025 because we can't make the tools that our customers want, yes.

是的，我認為你是完全正確的。我的意思是，我們非常——我們的客戶也不斷告訴我們這一點。這並不是說我們在一個叫 Veldhoven 的小鎮的 20 樓完全隔離，想一想，是因為我們的客戶也向我們展示了他們需要什麼以及為什麼？我們認為這就是 2025 年，這是非常真實的。所以這意味著我們需要預先建置。所以你會在我們的營運資金和供應商的營運資金中看到這一點。如果情況變化得更快一點，我們實際上會在 2024 年下半年需要它。所以我們需要做好準備。但你是絕對正確的。如果看起來不是這樣，你將無法做出反應。然後我們將在 2025 年陷入超級危機，因為我們無法製造客戶想要的工具，是的。

And then -- in terms of a follow-up for Roger. I mean, next year, if you're looking at a flattish year, I mean you must have had a spending plan on your OpEx for next year, whether it's R&D or SG&A. Are you going to continue with that plan, given that the environment is different from when you build that plan? Or are you going to continue spending as you would normally have done and thus, there is an earnings impact next year in a flattish year because you have got an upward trajectory on your expenses?

然後——就羅傑的後續行動而言。我的意思是，如果你預計明年會表現平淡，我的意思是你必須對明年的營運支出有一個支出計劃，無論是研發還是銷售、管理及管理費用。鑑於環境與製定該計劃時不同，您是否會繼續執行該計劃？或者，您會像平常一樣繼續支出，從而在明年表現平平的一年中對收入產生影響，因為您的支出呈上升趨勢？

Sandeep, so obviously in current environment, we are frugal, right? As you might expect us to do. So we're definitely controlling our SG&A expense there. On the R&D side, that's long term. And I think we would be ill-advised to now go cut our R&D road map and it's not what we're doing, right. So we are continuing to execute on the R&D road map. You might have seen that on the hiring of people, we slowed down a little bit this year. So part of that is in response to what I just mentioned in SG&A. It is also in response to the fact that in 2022, we hired 10,000 people. So on the 42,000 people that we have today, that's massive. So obviously, you want a certain level of absorption to happen there, and that's exactly what we're doing, right, making sure that people are well absorbed, but the growth also on the R&D headcount is nicely absorbed.

Sandeep，顯然在當前環境下，我們很節儉，對吧？正如您所期望的那樣。因此，我們肯定會控制 SG&A 費用。在研發方面，這是長期的。我認為我們現在就削減我們的研發路線圖是不明智的，這不是我們正在做的事情，對吧。因此，我們正在繼續執行研發路線圖。你可能已經看到，在招募人員方面，我們今年放慢了一些速度。這部分是為了回應我剛才在 SG&A 中提到的內容。也是為了因應2022年我們僱用了10,000人的事實。因此，對於我們今天的 42,000 名員工來說，這是一個巨大的數字。顯然，你希望那裡發生一定程度的吸收，而這正是我們正在做的，對吧，確保人們被很好地吸收，但研發人員數量的增長也得到了很好的吸收。

So that's why you see this slowing down a little bit on hiring people. But no, I mean we continue to push down the accelerator on the R&D front because the opportunity is significant. And in order for us to achieve the growth trajectory that we've talked about in '25 and 2030. We simply need to do that. So yes, we will be frugal. No, we're not going to cut back on our R&D road map.

這就是為什麼你會看到招募速度有所放緩。但不，我的意思是我們繼續加快研發方面的步伐，因為機會很大。為了讓我們實現我們在 25 年和 2030 年談到的成長軌跡。我們只需要這樣做。所以，是的，我們會節儉。不，我們不會削減研發路線圖。

We will now go to the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Janardan Menon from Jefferies.

我們現在進入下一個問題。您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Janardan Menon。

I just want to go back to the question of the backlog. You do have a sizable backlog of over EUR 35 billion and over EUR 19 billion on the EUV side. So just referring to a previous question on pushouts. Do you see a risk? I mean, if you were to look out into 2024, especially on your EUV side, is your uncertainty more on do you get any pushouts on the existing backlog? Or is it a question of how many orders you can take in Q4 for shipment into 2024. My question is more -- you've said that it's -- that you've suggested that there is some conservatism in that. And I'm just wondering where the risk or the upside could come from? Is it more that there could be a risk of pushouts? Or is it just the amount of orders you could take in Q4?

我只想回到積壓的問題。你們確實有超過 350 億歐元的大量積壓，EUV 方面則超過 190 億歐元。所以只是參考之前關於推出的問題。您看到風險了嗎？我的意思是，如果你展望 2024 年，尤其是在 EUV 方面，你的不確定性是否更集中在現有積壓訂單上是否會被推遲？或者是你在第四季度可以接受多少訂單並運送到 2024 年的問題。我的問題更多的是——你已經說過了——你暗示這裡面有一些保守主義。我只是想知道風險或好處來自哪裡？是否更有可能存在被淘汰的風險？還是只是您在第四季可以接受的訂單量？

Yes. I think it's a good question, Janardan. The way we look at this is we look -- one, of course, we are in close contact with our customers, and we are discussing in depth with them what they really need. But what they really need is also a function of where they are and what they see that they need going forward. And of course, where they are is they're in a clear -- many or all of them are in a down cycle where they feel it's about the trough or we might be seeing the inflection points that will take us out of the trough. So if you then think about the psychology of the customer and they look forward and they see these inflection points towards the end of the year changing positively, that means they will grow in 2024. That means what we discuss with them now is the -- because the minimum scenario. If everything happens the way that we think in terms of the inflection point, they will see growth, then I think this will be it.

是的。我認為這是一個很好的問題，賈納丹。我們看待這個問題的方式是——當然，我們與客戶保持密切聯繫，我們正在與他們深入討論他們真正需要什麼。但他們真正需要的也取決於他們所處的位置以及他們認為未來需要什麼。當然，他們所處的位置是明確的——他們中的許多人或所有人都處於下行週期，他們認為這是關於低谷的，或者我們可能會看到將我們帶出低谷的拐點。因此，如果你考慮客戶的心理，他們會展望未來，並看到這些拐點在年底發生積極變化，這意味著他們將在 2024 年實現增長。這意味著我們現在與他們討論的是——因為最小的場景。如果一切都按照我們認為的拐點的方式發生，他們會看到成長，那麼我認為就是這樣。

But that, of course, is -- that is -- and in their current mind, they don't give us a lot of orders. So their current mind is we have what we have. We look forward to what we need as a minimum in 2024. They better tell us -- they tell us you better prepare us for 2025. But the minimum in 2024 is what we call the conservative view because you could have a more positive view and say, well, it will turn in the second half of 2024. We don't have any indication that it's going to be that soon. So this minimum position that they see is what they have discussed with us, and seeing those inflection points, I think there is little risk to the downside, to answer your question.

但當然，在他們目前的想法中，他們並沒有給我們太多命令。所以他們現在的想法是我們擁有我們所擁有的。我們期待著2024 年我們所需要的最低限度。他們更好地告訴我們——他們告訴我們你更好地為2025 年做好準備。但2024 年的最低限度是我們所說的保守觀點，因為你可以有更積極的觀點，並且比如說，好吧，它將在 2024 年下半年發生。我們沒有任何跡象表明它會那麼快。因此，他們看到的這個最低位置是他們與我們討論過的，看到這些拐點，我認為回答你的問題時，下行風險很小。

Now could there be an opportunity to the upside, that would effectively mean that what we see in 2025 for reasons of a faster recovery in the cycle will be pulled in into the back half of 2024. That could be an upside. But this is where we are. This is where our thinking is, and this is where the thinking of our customers is and this is how we reflect on our view of 2024.

現在是否存在上行機會，這實際上意味著我們在 2025 年看到的經濟週期更快復甦的情況將被拉到 2024 年下半年。這可能是上行空間。但這就是我們現在的情況。這就是我們的想法，這就是我們客戶的想法，這就是我們對 2024 年的看法。

Understood. And just a small follow-up on China. As you referred to, the official regulations coming out of the U.S. government yesterday, if you look at the chuck overlay numbers of 2.4 nanometer, it seems to capture the 1980 as well and what you're saying is that because it's only the advanced manufacturing facilities will be covered by that, and that's a handful. But do you think that, that could be a moving target through the course of the year? I mean, could new fabs continuously be added to that? Or taken away from that. So does that sort of cloud the overall visibility on where China could actually end up just from a geopolitical standpoint over the next 12 months?

明白了。這只是對中國的一個小後續行動。正如你所提到的，昨天美國政府發布的官方規定，如果你看看2.4納米的卡盤覆蓋數字，它似乎也捕捉到了1980年的情況，你所說的是因為這只是先進製造設施將被覆蓋，但這是少數。但您認為這可能是全年不斷變化的目標嗎？我的意思是，是否可以不斷增加新的晶圓廠？或遠離那個。那麼，僅從地緣政治的角度來看，這種情況是否會影響中國在未來 12 個月內實際上最終可能走向何方的整體可見性？

I think that last word, geopolitical confrontation would end up is a billion dollar question, I suppose. But I think basically 2 answers. One, what -- how the regulations are currently structured is like the Japanese have also done the same thing. They basically say all immersion, but export controls will only apply to advanced manufacturing which is only those 5 fabs. Now could that grow? Yes. That has always been there. That particular risk in terms of export controls being enlarged to what it is today, that's a risk that we've always had. So that is basically a function of what you ended your question with, is how the geopolitical escalation will happen going forward. We don't know.

我認為最後一句話，地緣政治對抗最終將是一個價值十億美元的問題。但我認為基本上有兩個答案。一，目前法規的結構就像日本人也做了同樣的事情。他們基本上說都是沉浸式的，但出口管制僅適用於先進製造，也就是這 5 家晶圓廠。現在可以成長嗎？是的。那一直都在那裡。出口管制方面的特殊風險擴大到今天的程度，這是我們一直面臨的風險。因此，這基本上取決於您問題的結尾，即地緣政治升級將如何繼續發生。我們不知道。

I mean we just have to live with what the regulation is today, and you need to realize that this regulation, which is an amalgamation, a consolidation of the October 7 proposal of last year with the trilateral agreement between the Dutch, the Japanese and the Americans has led to this situation of this handful of fabs. So it's -- so this is also the result of, you could say, in-depth discussions, multilateral discussions between governments.

我的意思是，我們只需要接受今天的法規，您需要認識到，這項法規是去年 10 月 7 日提案與荷蘭、日本和日本之間三邊協議的合併、合併。是美國人造成了這屈指可數的晶圓廠的這種局面。所以這也是，你可以說，政府之間深入討論、多邊討論的結果。

Now I don't say that that's never going to change, but that's what you need to consider also. So we are where we are. I don't have a crystal ball to predict where geopolitics will go and how it will escalate but we need to work from where we are. And I can assure you that the results that are currently on the table in terms of regulation are the result of very deep discussions between governments that are not just on a lazy Sunday afternoon being prepared. This is very deep. So yes, it can change. But then also, I think the geopolitical situation first needs to change. And then of course, like I said, I don't have a crystal ball.

現在我並不是說這永遠不會改變，但這也是你需要考慮的。所以我們就在現在的位置。我沒有水晶球來預測地緣政治將走向何方以及它將如何升級，但我們需要從我們所處的位置開始工作。我可以向你們保證，目前在監管方面擺在桌面上的結果是政府之間非常深入討論的結果，而不僅僅是在一個慵懶的周日下午準備的。這是很深的。所以是的，它可以改變。但我認為地緣政治局勢首先需要改變。當然，就像我說的，我沒有水晶球。

And Janardan, a final element in the conversation, building on what Peter was just saying, and he said it before. Obviously, the regulation really aims at advanced semiconductor manufacturing. I think you simply have to recognize that most of the Chinese customers have gotten the message already last year. And as a result of that have really shifted to what we call mid-critical and mature manufacturing. That's what you see them do.

賈納丹（Janardan）是談話中的最後一個元素，以彼得剛才所說的話為基礎，他之前也說過。顯然，該規定的真正目標是先進半導體製造。我想你只需要認識到大多數中國客戶去年就已經明白了這一點。因此，我們真正轉向了我們所說的中關鍵和成熟製造。這就是你看到的他們所做的。

So as a result of that, I would say the number of fabs that are still involved or number of our customers and fabs that are still involved in advanced manufacturing have gone down dramatically. And as a result of that, we can now talk about a handful of fabs that are associated with that. So if that's the objective, then that is completely achieved -- in line with -- exactly what now has been achieved.

因此，我想說，仍然參與先進製造的晶圓廠數量或我們的客戶和晶圓廠仍然參與先進製造的數量已經大幅下降。因此，我們現在可以談論一些與之相關的晶圓廠。因此，如果這是目標，那麼就完全實現了，與現在已經實現的目標一致。

And that's a good point, Roger. When we do the road map discussions with our Chinese customers, they all moved back, not forward, they all moved back. And they do that because -- what was an answer to a previous question because if you look at the demand for mid-critical, low mid-critical and mature semiconductors, and you look at the significant transitions that also China is going through, and where -- in many areas, they're leading where it's electric vehicles or whether it's the energy transition, the square inches of silicon that is needed to support that are massive. So they actually need to build that capacity, which, by the way, they're not going to be self-sufficient because the demand, the local demand is simply too high. I mean, but they will be more self-sufficient, but not fully. And so there's no downside for our Chinese customers to actually move their road map in that direction.

這是一個很好的觀點，羅傑。當我們與中國客戶討論路線圖時，他們都後退了，不是前進了，他們都後退了。他們這樣做是因為——上一個問題的答案是什麼，因為如果你看看對中關鍵、低中關鍵和成熟半導體的需求，然後看看中國正在經歷的重大轉變，並且在許多領域，無論是電動車還是能源轉型，以及支持這些領域所需的平方英吋矽，他們都處於領先地位。所以他們實際上需要建立這種能力，順便說一句，他們不會自給自足，因為需求，當地的需求太高了。我的意思是，他們會更自給自足，但不是完全自給自足。因此，對於我們的中國客戶來說，朝這個方向實際推進他們的路線圖並沒有什麼壞處。

All right. Thank you all. We are now at the end of the hour. So if you are unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact ASML Investor Relations Department with your questions. Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你們。現在已經到了最後時刻了。因此，如果您無法接通本次電話會議但仍有疑問，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。現在，我謹代表 ASML，感謝大家今天加入我們。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes the ASML 2023 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。 ASML 2023 年第三季財務業績電話會議至此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。