艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2022 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Conference Call on January 25, 2023. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 2023 年 1 月 25 日舉行的 ASML 2022 年第四季度和全年財務業績電話會議。（運營商說明）。我現在想把電話轉給 Skip Miller 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen.

謝謝你，運營商。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有 ASML 的首席執行官 Peter Wennink；以及我們的首席財務官 Roger Dassen。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2022 fourth quarter and full year results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 的 2022 年第四季度和全年業績。此電話會議的時長為 60 分鐘，問題將按照收到問題的順序進行處理。此電話會議還在 asml.com 上通過互聯網進行現場直播。本次電話會議結束後不久，將在我們的網站上提供管理層開場白的文字記錄和電話會議的重播。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and the presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理層在本次電話會議上發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。對於風險因素的討論，我鼓勵您查看今天的新聞稿中包含的安全港聲明和我們網站 asml.com 上的演示文稿以及 ASML 的 20-F 表格年度報告和提交給證券公司的其他文件和交易佣金。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做一個簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Skip.

謝謝你，跳過。

Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results conference call. And before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the fourth quarter and full year 2022 as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. And Roger will start with a review of our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial performance, with some added comments on our short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook. Roger, if you want -- like.

歡迎大家，並感謝您加入我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年業績電話會議。在我們開始問答環節之前，羅杰和我想對第四季度和 2022 年全年進行概述和一些評論，並提供我們對未來幾個季度的看法。羅傑將首先回顧我們第四季度和 2022 年全年的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表一些補充評論。我將通過對當前商業環境和我們未來的商業前景的一些補充評論來完成介紹。羅傑，如果你願意的話——就像。

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the fourth quarter and full year financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the first quarter of 2023.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第四季度和全年的財務業績，然後提供 2023 年第一季度的指導。

Let me start with our fourth quarter accomplishments. Net sales came in at EUR 6.4 billion, around the midpoint of our guidance. We shipped 18 EUV unit -- EUV systems and recognized EUR 2.3 billion revenue from 13 systems this quarter. Net system sales of EUR 4.7 billion, which was again driven by Logic at 64% with the remaining 36% coming from Memory. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.7 billion, which was higher than guided due to additional upgrade revenue.

讓我從我們第四季度的成就開始。淨銷售額為 64 億歐元，接近我們指引的中點。本季度我們出貨了 18 個 EUV 單元——EUV 系統，並從 13 個系統中確認了 23 億歐元的收入。系統淨銷售額為 47 億歐元，再次由邏輯驅動，佔 64%，其餘 36% 來自內存。本季度安裝基礎管理銷售額為 17 億歐元，由於額外的升級收入，高於預期。

Gross margin for the quarter came in at 51.5%, which is above our guidance, primarily due to the pull-in of additional upgrade business as well as an insurance settlement from ASML Berlin fire, which occurred in early 2022.

本季度的毛利率為 51.5%，高於我們的指引，這主要是由於引入了額外的升級業務以及 2022 年初發生的 ASML 柏林火災的保險理賠。

On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 906 million, above our guidance due to higher depreciation. SG&A expenses were EUR 280 million, higher than guided due to increased IT and recruiting spending as part of our headcount growth plan.

在運營費用方面，由於折舊較高，研發費用為 9.06 億歐元，高於我們的指引。 SG&A 費用為 2.8 億歐元，高於預期，這是由於作為我們員工增長計劃的一部分，增加了 IT 和招聘支出。

Net income in Q4 was EUR 1.8 billion, representing 28.2% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 4.60. Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the fourth quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 7.4 billion.

第四季度的淨收入為 18 億歐元，占淨銷售額的 28.2%，每股收益為 4.60 歐元。轉向資產負債表。我們在第四季度末擁有 74 億歐元的現金、現金等價物和短期投資。

Moving to the order book. Q4 net system bookings came in at EUR 6.3 billion, which is made up of EUR 3.4 billion for EUV bookings and EUR 2.9 billion for non-EUV bookings. These values also include inflation corrections. Non-EUV bookings are a combination of deep UV and metrology and inspection. Net system bookings in the quarter were driven by Logic with 66% of the bookings, while Memory accounted for the remaining 34%.

轉到訂單簿。第 4 季度淨系統預訂額為 63 億歐元，其中 EUV 預訂額為 34 億歐元，非 EUV 預訂額為 29 億歐元。這些值還包括通貨膨脹修正。非 EUV 預訂是深紫外線與計量和檢驗的結合。本季度淨系統預訂由邏輯驅動，佔預訂的 66%，而內存佔剩餘的 34%。

Looking at the full year, net sales grew 14% to EUR 21.2 billion. EUV system sales grew 12% to EUR 7 billion realized from 40 systems while in total, we shipped 54 EUV systems in 2022. Deep UV system sales grew 13% to EUR 7.7 billion. Our metrology and inspection system sales grew 28% to EUR 660 million.

縱觀全年，淨銷售額增長 14% 至 212 億歐元。 EUV 系統銷售額增長 12%，達到 40 個系統，達到 70 億歐元，而我們在 2022 年總共出貨了 54 個 EUV 系統。深紫外線系統銷售額增長 13%，達到 77 億歐元。我們的計量和檢測系統銷售額增長了 28%，達到 6.6 億歐元。

Looking at the market segments for 2022. Logic system revenue was EUR 10 billion which is a 4% increase from last year. Memory system revenue was EUR 5.5 billion, which is a 34% increase from last year. Installed Base Management sales was EUR 5.7 billion, which is a 16% increase compared to previous year.

展望 2022 年的細分市場。邏輯系統收入為 100 億歐元，比去年增長 4%。內存系統收入為 55 億歐元，比去年增長 34%。安裝基礎管理銷售額為 57 億歐元，比上一年增長 16%。

At the end of 2022, we finished with a backlog of EUR 40.4 billion, an increase of 67% compared to the end of 2021. Our R&D spending increased to EUR 3.3 billion in 2022, as we continue to invest in innovation across our full product portfolio. Overall, R&D investments as a percentage of 2022 sales were about 15%. SG&A increased to EUR 946 million in 2022, which was about 4% of sales. Net income for the full year was EUR 5.6 billion, 26.6% of net sales, resulting in an EPS of EUR 14.14.

到 2022 年底，我們完成了 404 億歐元的積壓訂單，比 2021 年底增長了 67%。隨著我們繼續投資於整個產品的創新，我們的研發支出在 2022 年增加到 33 億歐元文件夾。總體而言，研發投資佔 2022 年銷售額的百分比約為 15%。 2022 年，SG&A 增至 9.46 億歐元，約佔銷售額的 4%。全年淨收入為 56 億歐元，占淨銷售額的 26.6%，每股收益為 14.14 歐元。

Improvements in working capital contributed to a free cash flow generation of EUR 7.2 billion for 2022, mainly driven by customer down payments following the very significant order intake this year. We continue to invest in support of our road map and planned capacity ramp. Excess cash will be returned to our shareholders through a combination of dividends and share buybacks.

營運資金的改善為 2022 年產生了 72 億歐元的自由現金流，這主要是由於今年收到大量訂單後客戶預付定金所致。我們繼續投資以支持我們的路線圖和計劃的產能提升。多餘的現金將通過股息和股票回購相結合的方式返還給我們的股東。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the first quarter of 2023. We expect Q1 net sales to be between EUR 6.1 billion and EUR 6.5 billion. Per customers' requests, we prioritized resources towards the acceleration of deep UV shipments at the end of 2022. As a result, we expect lower revenue in Q1 and higher revenue in the following quarters. We expect our Q1 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 1.5 billion.

說到這裡，我想談談我們對 2023 年第一季度的預期。我們預計第一季度的淨銷售額將在 61 億至 65 億歐元之間。根據客戶的要求，我們將資源優先用於在 2022 年底加速深紫外線出貨量。因此，我們預計第一季度的收入將下降，隨後幾個季度的收入將增加。我們預計第一季度的 Installed Base Management 銷售額約為 15 億歐元。

Gross margin for Q1 is expected to be between 49% and 50%. The lower margin relative to last quarter is primarily due to lower upgrade revenue and deep UV mix effect.

第一季度的毛利率預計在 49% 至 50% 之間。與上一季度相比較低的利潤率主要是由於較低的升級收入和深紫外線混合效應。

The expected R&D expenses for Q1 are around EUR 965 million, and SG&A is expected to be around EUR 285 million. The higher R&D guidance is primarily due to additional headcount and labor cost increases. These investments are in support of our continuous innovation as we further expand our deep UV, EUV and applications road map and, at the same time, work to improve our installed base performance. Higher SG&A is mainly due to additional headcount and IT spending.

第一季度的預期研發費用約為 9.65 億歐元，SG&A 預計約為 2.85 億歐元。更高的研髮指導主要是由於員工人數增加和勞動力成本增加。這些投資是為了支持我們不斷創新，因為我們進一步擴展了我們的深紫外線、EUV 和應用路線圖，同時努力提高我們的安裝基礎性能。更高的 SG&A 主要是由於額外的員工人數和 IT 支出。

Our estimated 2023 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 15% and 16%. In Q4, ASML paid a quarterly interim dividend of EUR 1.37 per ordinary share. The third quarterly interim dividend will be EUR 1.37 per ordinary share and will be made payable on February 15, 2023. Recognizing this interim dividend and the 2 interim dividends of EUR 1.37 per ordinary share paid in 2022, this leads to a final dividend proposal to the general meeting of EUR 1.69 per ordinary share.

我們估計 2023 年的年化有效稅率預計在 15% 至 16% 之間。第四季度，ASML 支付了每股普通股 1.37 歐元的季度中期股息。第三季度中期股息為每股普通股 1.37 歐元，將於 2023 年 2 月 15 日支付。考慮到此次中期股息和 2022 年支付的每股普通股 1.37 歐元的中期股息，這導致末期股息提議每股普通股 1.69 歐元的股東大會。

In Q4 2022, we purchased around 0.6 million shares for a total amount of around EUR 300 million. ASML announced a new share buyback program during our Investor Day on November 11, 2022, to be executed by December 31, 2025. We intend to purchase shares up to an amount of EUR 12 billion.

2022 年第四季度，我們購買了約 60 萬股股票，總金額約為 3 億歐元。 ASML 在 2022 年 11 月 11 日的投資者日宣布了一項新的股票回購計劃，該計劃將於 2025 年 12 月 31 日之前執行。我們打算購買不超過 120 億歐元的股票。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to you, Peter.

有了這個，我想把電話轉回給你，彼得。

Thank you, Roger. And as Roger has highlighted, we had a year of record sales in a dynamic environment. Demand remains strong and we finished the year with a record backlog.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如 Roger 強調的那樣，我們在充滿活力的環境中創造了一年的銷售記錄。需求依然強勁，我們以創紀錄的積壓結束了這一年。

And looking to 2023, there continues to be a lot of uncertainty in the market due to a number of global macro concerns around inflation, rising interest rates, recession and the geopolitical environment, including export controls. Customers are still seeing demand weakness in consumer-driven end markets, the most notable with PCs and smartphones, with some indication of softening or lower growth rates in data center demand, while the demand strength continues in other markets such as automotive and industrial.

展望 2023 年，由於對通脹、利率上升、經濟衰退和地緣政治環境（包括出口管制）的一系列全球宏觀擔憂，市場仍存在很多不確定性。客戶仍然看到消費者驅動的終端市場需求疲軟，其中最明顯的是個人電腦和智能手機，數據中心需求的增長率有所放緩或放緩，而汽車和工業等其他市場的需求依然強勁。

Customers are telling us they expect a rebalancing of semiconductor inventories over the first half of 2023, with business expected to rebound in the second half of the year. A potential driver of this recovery in the second half of the year could also be the post-COVID opening of China. This could have a positive effect on both supply and demand.

客戶告訴我們，他們預計半導體庫存將在 2023 年上半年重新平衡，業務預計將在下半年反彈。今年下半年這種複甦的潛在推動力也可能是中國在 COVID 後的開放。這可能對供需雙方產生積極影響。

To help rebalance inventory levels, customers are running their lithography systems at lower utilization levels and some have also lowered their CapEx plan for this year.

為了幫助重新平衡庫存水平，客戶正在以較低的利用率水平運行他們的光刻系統，一些客戶還降低了他們今年的資本支出計劃。

Based on this, we concluded that most of our customers have made the assessment that the duration of a potential recession is significantly shorter than our average delivery lead time. On top of this, lithography investments are strategic in nature, which means that the demand for our systems remain strong. For instance, this year, demand still exceeds our capacity, and we enter the year with a backlog of EUR 40.4 billion, so our focus will still be on maximizing system output.

基於此，我們得出結論，我們的大多數客戶都做出了潛在衰退的持續時間明顯短於我們的平均交貨提前期的評估。最重要的是，光刻投資本質上是戰略性的，這意味著對我們系統的需求仍然強勁。例如，今年需求仍然超過我們的產能，我們以 404 億歐元的積壓進入了這一年，因此我們的重點仍將放在最大化系統輸出上。

We've experienced several quarters of very strong bookings, which now provides backlog coverage significantly beyond 2023, which is almost twice the expected 2023 system sales. Based on discussions with our customers and continued improvements in the capability of our supply chain, we are planning to increase our output capability this year. We're planning to ship around 60 EUV systems and around 375 deep UV systems in 2023, with around 25% of the deep UV systems to be immersion. We still plan a significant number of fast shipments this year, which under the current way of working will result in a similar amount of delayed revenue out of 2023 that came into 2023.

我們已經經歷了幾個季度非常強勁的預訂，現在積壓覆蓋範圍大大超過 2023 年，這幾乎是 2023 年預期系統銷售額的兩倍。根據與客戶的討論以及我們供應鏈能力的持續改進，我們計劃在今年提高我們的產量。我們計劃在 2023 年出貨約 60 個 EUV 系統和約 375 個深紫外線系統，其中約 25% 的深紫外線系統將採用浸入式。我們今年仍計劃大量快速發貨，按照目前的工作方式，這將導致 2023 年的延遲收入與 2023 年的延遲收入相似。

Looking at the growth of the business for the full year 2023 compared to 2022. We expect EUV revenue growth of around 40% and non-EUV revenue growth of around 30%. And for the Installed Base Management business, we expect year-over-year revenue growth of around 5%. And as we are coming off a strong growth year in 2022 and customers are adjusting their utilization levels, we currently expect to see a slightly lower demand in our upgrade business in 2023.

看看與 2022 年相比，2023 年全年的業務增長。我們預計 EUV 收入增長約 40%，非 EUV 收入增長約 30%。對於安裝基礎管理業務，我們預計收入同比增長約 5%。由於我們將在 2022 年實現強勁增長，並且客戶正在調整他們的利用率水平，我們目前預計 2023 年升級業務的需求將略有下降。

In summary, for the full year 2023, based on how we see the world today, we expect another year of strong growth with a net sales increase of over 25% and a slight improvement in gross margin. On the geopolitical front, as it relates to export control, this continues to be a geopolitical discussion with different government entities, a process where ASML is obviously not in control although we continue the discussion with governments to make sure that consequences of proposals are well understood.

總而言之，對於 2023 年全年，根據我們對當今世界的看法，我們預計又是強勁增長的一年，淨銷售額增長超過 25%，毛利率略有改善。在地緣政治方面，因為它涉及出口管制，這仍然是與不同政府實體的地緣政治討論，儘管我們繼續與政府討論以確保提案的後果得到充分理解，但 ASML 顯然無法控制這一過程.

As of today, export control policy related to lithography equipment has not changed. We are still not able to ship EUV systems to China, but are able to ship deep UV as well as metrology and inspection systems to China. As our Prime Minister recently stated, this is a multinational discussion, not only with the U.S., but with several countries. He reiterated that multiple companies in the semiconductor industry, including their supply chains, are involved and that the matter is complex and sensitive. It needs careful handling with precision. And he reminded us there is a lot of interest at stake, and it's important to find the right balance. We will therefore not speculate about the possible outcome but will have to wait for the outcome of ongoing government discussions.

截至今日，與光刻設備相關的出口管制政策並未發生變化。我們仍然無法將 EUV 系統運送到中國，但能夠將深紫外線以及計量和檢測系統運送到中國。正如我們的總理最近所說，這是一次多國討論，不僅是與美國的討論，還有幾個國家的討論。他重申，涉及半導體行業的多家公司，包括他們的供應鏈，事情複雜敏感。它需要精確地小心處理。他提醒我們，利益攸關，找到正確的平衡點很重要。因此，我們不會推測可能的結果，而是必須等待正在進行的政府討論的結果。

Looking longer term, we talked at our Investor Day last year about the global megatrends, where the broadening application space is fueling demand for advanced and mature nodes. Secular growth drivers in semiconductor end markets and increasing lithography intensity on future technology nodes are driving the demand for our products and services. ASML and its supply chain partners are actively adding capacity to meet future customer demand as confirmed at Investor Day, with our capacity plans of 600 deep UV, 90 EUV low-NA systems by 2025-'26 and 20 EUV high-NA systems by '27-'28.

從長遠來看，我們在去年的投資者日談到了全球大趨勢，即不斷擴大的應用空間正在推動對先進和成熟節點的需求。半導體終端市場的長期增長動力和未來技術節點光刻強度的增加正在推動對我們產品和服務的需求。正如投資者日確認的那樣，ASML 及其供應鏈合作夥伴正在積極增加產能以滿足未來客戶的需求，我們的產能計劃是到 2025 年至 26 年生產 600 個深紫外線、90 個 EUV 低 NA 系統和 20 個 EUV 高 NA 系統。 27-'28。

Also presented during our Investor Day last November, we see an opportunity based on different market scenarios to reach an annual revenue in 2025 between EUR 30 billion and EUR 40 billion and in 2030, an annual revenue between EUR 44 billion and EUR 60 billion.

同樣在去年 11 月的投資者日期間，我們看到了一個基於不同市場情景的機會，即 2025 年年收入達到 300 億至 400 億歐元，2030 年年收入達到 440 億至 600 億歐元。

Part of our long-term growth opportunity, we also remain committed to our ambitious ESG sustainability goals. On February 15, 2023, our 2022 annual report will be published. As part of this report, we plan to provide you with an update on how we collaborate with our stakeholders to deliver on the ambitions of our ESG Sustainability strategy, which we can summarize as follows: our ambition is to achieve carbon neutrality with net zero emissions in our operations, Scope 1 and 2 by 2025; we aim to achieve net zero emissions in our supply chain, Scope 3, by 2030; and net zero emissions from the use of our products by our customers, Scope 3, by 2040. In addition, our goal is also to have zero waste from operations to landfill and incineration by 2030.

作為我們長期增長機會的一部分，我們還繼續致力於實現我們雄心勃勃的 ESG 可持續發展目標。 2023 年 2 月 15 日，我們將發布 2022 年年度報告。作為本報告的一部分，我們計劃向您介紹我們如何與利益相關者合作以實現我們的 ESG 可持續發展戰略的目標，我們可以總結如下：我們的目標是實現淨零排放的碳中和在我們的運營中，到 2025 年範圍 1 和範圍 2；我們的目標是到 2030 年在我們的供應鏈中實現淨零排放，範圍 3；到 2040 年，我們的客戶使用我們的產品所產生的淨零排放，範圍 3。此外，我們的目標是到 2030 年實現從運營到垃圾填埋場和焚燒的零廢物。

From a social perspective, our ambition is to ensure that responsible growth benefits everyone. To maintain our fast pace of innovation and ensure our long-term success as a company, we need to attract and retain the best talent and provide the best possible employee experience. We aim to be a valued and trusted partner, improving the quality of life for all people in our communities.

從社會的角度來看，我們的目標是確保負責任的增長造福於每個人。為了保持我們快速的創新步伐並確保我們作為一家公司的長期成功，我們需要吸引和留住最優秀的人才，並提供盡可能最好的員工體驗。我們的目標是成為有價值和值得信賴的合作夥伴，改善我們社區所有人的生活質量。

In summary, while there's a lot of near-term uncertainty in the current environment, our customers' demand for our products continues to exceed supply. We're working to increase our capacity to meet our customers' future demand, and we're fully confident in the opportunity this provides for our future growth.

總而言之，儘管當前環境存在很多近期不確定性，但我們的客戶對我們產品的需求繼續超過供應。我們正在努力提高我們的能力以滿足客戶未來的需求，我們對這為我們未來的增長提供的機會充滿信心。

With that, we would be happy to take your questions.

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions). Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

謝謝你們，羅杰和彼得。接線員將立即指導您了解問答環節的流程。 （操作員說明）。現在接線員，我們可以請您最後說明一下，然後是第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi at Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

I was wondering in your 2023 outlook if you could kind of give us any color on how you're thinking about Logic versus Memory growth this year.

我想知道在您的 2023 年展望中，您是否可以給我們一些顏色，說明您如何看待今年邏輯與內存的增長。

Yes. I mean we've not made that -- Joe, thanks for the question. We've not been explicit on that. We think that in the current environment, with all the dynamics and all the uncertainty that are out there and also the fact that we still look at 2023 as a year where we are supply constrained. We don't think that, that makes a lot of sense to guide around that. So that's why we said we're going to guide on (inaudible) so EUV versus -- EUV and non-EUV, but we think it is not very constructive and meaningful to provide guidance on Memory versus Logic.

是的。我的意思是我們還沒有做到這一點——喬，謝謝你提出這個問題。我們沒有明確說明這一點。我們認為，在當前環境下，存在所有動態和所有不確定性，而且我們仍然將 2023 年視為供應受限的一年。我們認為，圍繞這一點進行指導沒有多大意義。所以這就是為什麼我們說我們要指導（聽不清）所以 EUV 與 - EUV 和非 EUV，但我們認為提供關於內存與邏輯的指導不是很有建設性和意義。

I mean clearly, if you look at the recent order intake, you do see that Memory is far from that. As a matter of fact, you see Memory actually picking up in the quarter and quite healthy in the year. And that tells you that the Memory buyers are also making strategic investments because they recognize that if at a certain point in time, the market is going to come back, they need capacity. So that's what you see in the order intake. But again, for the full year, given an indication of the distribution over Logic and Memory, we thought it was a meaningless action in light of the dynamics that I just talked about.

我的意思很清楚，如果你看一下最近的訂單攝入量，你就會發現 Memory 遠非如此。事實上，您看到內存實際上在本季度有所回升，並且在這一年非常健康。這告訴你，內存買家也在進行戰略投資，因為他們認識到，如果在某個時間點，市場會恢復，他們需要產能。這就是您在訂單接收中看到的。但是，對於全年，考慮到邏輯和內存的分佈情況，我們認為根據我剛才談到的動態，這是一個毫無意義的行動。

Got it. That makes sense. And as a follow-up, you talked about the inflation-related adjustments in your bookings. Are you able to reprice kind of your entire backlog or portions of your backlog? And then is there any sort of quantification that you can help us with on just the average increase of ASP that we should be thinking about in our models?

知道了。這就說得通了。作為後續行動，您談到了預訂中與通貨膨脹相關的調整。您是否能夠重新定價您的全部積壓訂單或部分積壓訂單？然後，是否有任何量化可以幫助我們了解我們應該在模型中考慮的 ASP 的平均增長？

Yes, Joe. As you know, we've been through this before. We're having good discussions with customers. As you know, legally, the way the backlog is construed, we've agreed on a price. So this is just a matter of discussions with customers about a fair distribution of the burden.

是的，喬。如您所知，我們以前經歷過這種情況。我們正在與客戶進行良好的討論。如您所知，在法律上，積壓的解釋方式，我們已經就價格達成一致。所以這只是與客戶討論公平分配負擔的問題。

We're fairly advanced in that discussion. A number of customers have already made commitments to us on how they're going to contribute, with most other customers who are fairly advanced and are -- we think that we're going to find a solution. It's only a minority of customers that are not open to this conversation. So the lion's share is open to the conversation. But it really is in the spirit of finding a fair distribution of the inflation burden. So that has helped. And we're only putting into the backlog those inflation adjustments that have been explicitly agreed with customers. So more of that is to come because, as I said, we have a number of customers who are still in negotiations. So all of that is coming.

我們在那次討論中取得了相當的進展。許多客戶已經就他們將如何做出貢獻向我們做出承諾，大多數其他客戶相當先進並且 - 我們認為我們將找到解決方案。只有少數客戶不接受這種對話。所以最大的份額是開放的對話。但這確實是本著找到公平分配通脹負擔的精神。所以這有所幫助。而且我們只會將那些已與客戶明確同意的通貨膨脹調整積壓。所以更多的是因為，正如我所說，我們有一些客戶仍在談判中。所以這一切都來了。

I think the way it's going to pan out without really quantifying it, but just to give you an indication, as you know, last year, we said that we were having about 1.5% drag on the gross margin coming from inflation. I would say most of that is -- we expect to recover during the year. So most of the inflation that we incurred over 2022, I think most of that we will recover. But of course, there will be inflation in 2023, and that will remain a drag on the gross margin. So the gross margin impact of inflation will be less so than it was last year. But in comparison to 2021, you will still see a bit of a drag on the gross margin coming from inflation.

我認為它會在沒有真正量化的情況下取得成功，但只是為了給你一個指示，正如你所知，去年，我們說過通貨膨脹對毛利率的拖累約為 1.5%。我想說的大部分是——我們預計在這一年中會復蘇。因此，我們在 2022 年招致的大部分通貨膨脹，我認為其中大部分我們都會恢復。但當然，2023 年會出現通貨膨脹，這將繼續拖累毛利率。因此，通貨膨脹對毛利率的影響將低於去年。但與 2021 年相比，您仍會看到通貨膨脹對毛利率的拖累。

Yes. I think on your sales price you want to put into your models, I mean we guided EUV sales up with 40%, non-EUV with 30% and then installed base with 5%. I mean that's in the end where you need to end up with if you're going to change your model and you come to a different outcome, then something went wrong in your calculation. So...

是的。我認為關於你想要投入模型的銷售價格，我的意思是我們引導 EUV 銷售額增長 40%，非 EUV 增長 30%，然後安裝基數增長 5%。我的意思是，如果您要更改模型並得出不同的結果，那麼您最終需要結束的地方就是您的計算出了問題。所以...

And for the people that weren't really carefully listening, what that really means in terms of ASP for EUV, we talked about it before. Originally, we were looking at EUR 160 million. We've then been talking about EUR 165 million to recognize also increased functionality, I think, with the increases on ASP on the inflation. I think it's good to go somewhere between EUR 165 million and EUR 170 million. I think that's, on average, I think, the right way to go.

對於那些沒有認真聽的人來說，這在 EUV 的 ASP 方面真正意味著什麼，我們之前已經討論過了。最初，我們的目標是 1.6 億歐元。然後我們一直在談論 1.65 億歐元，以確認功能的增加，我認為，隨著通貨膨脹的 ASP 增加。我認為最好在 1.65 億歐元到 1.7 億歐元之間。我認為，平均而言，我認為這是正確的方法。

And our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse at Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question, Peter, I was hoping you could take a step back and maybe talk about your discussions with customers. Obviously, reducing utilization to clear inventories. But at the same time, given your lead times, you're continuing to have great visibility well beyond 2023. So I guess, can you kind of speak to the moving parts there? And I'd love to hear kind of your thoughts on your visibility for all of 2024.

我想第一個問題，彼得，我希望你能退後一步，談談你與客戶的討論。顯然，降低利用率以清理庫存。但與此同時，考慮到你的交貨時間，你將在 2023 年之後繼續保持良好的知名度。所以我想，你能談談那裡的移動部件嗎？我很想听聽您對 2024 年全年可見度的看法。

Yes. Good question, C.J. Yes, I think in the discussion with customers, it's exactly what I said. It's very clearly, we concluded from the discussions that customers believe. And I think it's also you can corroborate those statements with their public statements and basically saying some of the customers feel that they see a recovery towards the second half of this year. And that actually means that they tell us, "Listen, we know you guys are short of the demand we put on you." So that means that we don't want to risk our strategic investments, which go beyond the first half of 2023, moving into '24 and '25. So this is what that -- we're really having this midterm to long-term discussion with them of what's needed. And that's why they keep saying, "No, we need those machine." Having said that, of course, last year, we kept informing you that the demand on us significantly exceeded our build capacity, sometimes to 40%, 50%.

是的。好問題，C.J. 是的，我認為在與客戶的討論中，這正是我所說的。很明顯，我們從客戶相信的討論中得出結論。而且我認為你也可以用他們的公開聲明來證實這些聲明，基本上說一些客戶認為他們看到今年下半年的複蘇。這實際上意味著他們告訴我們，“聽著，我們知道你們達不到我們對你們提出的要求。”因此，這意味著我們不想冒險進行超過 2023 年上半年的戰略投資，進入 24 和 25 年。所以這就是 - 我們真的在與他們就需要什麼進行中期到長期的討論。這就是為什麼他們一直說，“不，我們需要那些機器。”話雖如此，當然，去年，我們不斷通知您，對我們的需求大大超過了我們的建設能力，有時達到 40%、50%。

Now that demand did come down. I mean that's also clear that some of that demand disappeared because of the market situation. But the end result is that the demand -- the cumulative demand is still higher than what we can make. So this is where we are. And I think that is driven by what I said that I think the average expectation on the duration of the downturn of, let's say, working through the inventory is significantly shorter than the average lead time of our tools. I think -- and that gives us a lot of visibility into 2024 also. Customers give us orders throughout the year, very significant levels of orders, which actually have over EUR 40 billion in the backlog, which is almost twice the system sales that we expect to have in 2023.

現在需求確實下降了。我的意思是，很明顯，由於市場情況，部分需求消失了。但最終結果是需求——累計需求仍然高於我們的生產能力。這就是我們所在的位置。我認為這是由我所說的驅動的，我認為對低迷持續時間的平均預期，比方說，通過庫存工作比我們工具的平均提前期要短得多。我認為——這也讓我們對 2024 年有了更多的了解。客戶全年都給我們訂單，訂單量非常大，實際積壓訂單超過 400 億歐元，幾乎是我們預計 2023 年系統銷售額的兩倍。

So yes, we have the visibility. And it still means that the customer expansion plans on adding that capacity in 2024 are still very real. Otherwise, you wouldn't give us these orders with down payments. So this is the level of visibility that we have. Now all of course hinges on the macroeconomic situation. Finally, you could say the expectation that the duration of any recession, if it would come, would indeed be short. I mean that's the big question mark that is out there for all of us. But this is where we are today. And we're just telling you what the discussions with our customers are currently at, and they are exactly what I just told you. So this is the level of visibility that we have, and always just a matter of watching the macroeconomic situation.

所以是的，我們有知名度。這仍然意味著在 2024 年增加該容量的客戶擴展計劃仍然非常真實。否則，你不會給我們這些帶有預付款的訂單。這就是我們的可見性水平。現在當然要看宏觀經濟形勢了。最後，你可以說任何衰退的持續時間（如果真的來了）確實會很短。我的意思是，這對我們所有人來說都是一個大問號。但這就是我們今天的處境。我們只是告訴你目前與我們客戶的討論是什麼，它們正是我剛才告訴你的。所以這就是我們所擁有的可見性水平，並且始終只是觀察宏觀經濟形勢的問題。

Very helpful. As my follow-up, just two quick housekeeping. What percentage of EUV bookings in the quarter came from Memory in December? And then secondly, how many e-tools do you plan to ship in 2023?

非常有幫助。作為我的後續行動，只有兩個快速的內務處理。 12 月份本季度的 EUV 預訂有多少來自內存？其次，您計劃在 2023 年出貨多少個電子工具？

So the -- it's roughly 25%-75%. So that's true for the entire bookings. It's also true for the EUV tool. So about 25% would go to Memory, around 75% comes from Logic. And I didn't quite get your last question. I couldn't really understand that.

所以 - 它大約是 25%-75%。所以整個預訂都是如此。 EUV 工具也是如此。所以大約 25% 會用於內存，大約 75% 來自邏輯。我不太明白你最後一個問題。我真的無法理解。

How many e-tools should we plan to ship in 2023?

我們應該計劃在 2023 年出貨多少電子工具？

Okay. That's a very limited number, a very limited number of tools. Less than a handful, I would say, C.J.

好的。這是非常有限的數量，非常有限的工具。少於少數，我會說，C.J.

Our next question comes from the line of Didier Scemama of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Didier Scemama。

Quick clarification, if I may. I think there seems to be quite a lot of confusion around fast shipment. So maybe Peter or Roger, if you could set the record straight. Number one, is it fair to assume that your calendar year '23 guide does not include any fast shipments, either on revenue or on gross margins? And then number two, if that's correct, when do you think you could get clarification from your accountants that, that could become the norm? I mean is that something tied to the sign-up of the accounts for 2022? Or is that a completely unrelated decision? I've got a quick follow-up.

快速澄清一下，如果可以的話。我認為圍繞快速發貨似乎存在很多混淆。所以也許是彼得或羅傑，如果你能澄清事實的話。第一，假設您的日曆年 '23 指南不包括任何快速發貨，無論是收入還是毛利率，這是否公平？然後第二，如果這是正確的，你認為你什麼時候可以從你的會計師那裡得到澄清，這可能成為常態？我的意思是，這與 2022 年的賬戶註冊有關嗎？或者這是一個完全無關的決定？我有一個快速跟進。

Thank you, Didier. Thanks for the question. I think this is helpful to indeed clarify that. So what you saw is that we're having -- that we had fast shipments for an amount of EUR 3.1 billion at the end of 2022. So the revenue for that will be recorded in 2023. However, we also assume that a similar amount will go from '22 to '23 -- from '23 to '24. And what that means, Didier, is that the guidance or the more than 25% growth over 2022 that we've given you, that in fact, treats the fast shipment effect as neutral, right? So we assume that, that will be neutral, i.e., the amount that comes in to '23, the EUR 3.1 billion, we also expect that to leave the year into '24. So it's neutralized for the fast shipment, so that's the way to look at it.

謝謝你，迪迪埃。謝謝你的問題。我認為這確實有助於澄清這一點。所以你看到的是我們有 - 到 2022 年底，我們的快速出貨量為 31 億歐元。因此，該收入將在 2023 年記錄。但是，我們還假設類似的金額將從 22 年到 23 年——從 23 年到 24 年。迪迪埃，這意味著我們給你的指導或 2022 年超過 25% 的增長，事實上，將快速發貨效應視為中性，對吧？所以我們假設，這將是中性的，即 23 年的金額，即 31 億歐元，我們也預計這一年將進入 24 年。所以它被快速發貨中和了，所以這就是看待它的方式。

The question on can you change the revenue recognition. As we mentioned before, there are 2 key elements in here. One is an accounting element, so to what extent can you get this done. But pivotal for the accounting treatment of fast shipments is that customers are actually upon shipments are going to accept the full risk on the tool. That's what is pivotal. So the conversation that we need to have with customers and need their final blessing on is that based on a far more limited testing protocol, because that's what fast shipment in essence is. It's a far more limited testing protocol where there's a couple of weeks of testing that we actually omit out of the sequence, that based on a far more limited testing sequence, they still assume the full risk of the tool upon shipment. So that's the conversation that we need to have. And you will appreciate that that's a conversation that, of course, customers need to really look into and become comfortable with.

關於您能否更改收入確認的問題。正如我們之前提到的，這裡有兩個關鍵要素。一個是會計要素，那麼你能在多大程度上做到這一點。但快速發貨的會計處理的關鍵是客戶實際上在發貨後將接受該工具的全部風險。這才是關鍵。因此，我們需要與客戶進行並需要他們最後祝福的對話是基於更加有限的測試協議，因為這就是快速發貨的本質。這是一個更加有限的測試協議，其中我們實際上忽略了幾週的測試，基於更加有限的測試序列，他們仍然承擔工具在發貨時的全部風險。這就是我們需要進行的對話。你會明白這是一場對話，當然，客戶需要真正了解並適應這種對話。

So that's not a 5-minute conversation. We're now done with the accounting analysis, so the accounting analysis in and by itself is clear, but it all hinges on the premise of being able to get to an agreement with customers on what I just told you. So those conversations were now starting. Cannot tell you when that is done. In all likelihood, I would say, by mid this year, we should have clarity on whether customers are willing to do that or not. It could also be that some customers are going to accept it, others could not.

所以這不是 5 分鐘的談話。會計分析到此結束，會計分析本身就很清楚了，但這一切都取決於能夠就我剛才告訴你的內容與客戶達成一致的前提。所以這些對話現在開始了。不能告訴你什麼時候完成。我很可能會說，到今年年中，我們應該清楚客戶是否願意這樣做。也可能是一些客戶會接受它，而另一些則不能。

And then once we have that clarity, of course, we will share that with you, and we'll also clarify to you what that means. To the extent that we would be able to recognize revenue again upon shipment for these fast shipments, of course, that would be additional to the more than 25% revenue growth that we've mentioned.

然後，一旦我們弄清楚了，當然，我們會與您分享，我們也會向您澄清這意味著什麼。當然，如果我們能夠在這些快速發貨的發貨後再次確認收入，那將是我們提到的超過 25% 的收入增長之外的額外收入。

Yes, that's very clear, Roger. And as a follow-up to that, so if fast shipments becomes the norm, is it reasonable to assume that your actual capacity for EUV actually is increased by 5 units because you shave off effectively a month of cycle time? So 60 divided by 12, 65 -- I'm sorry, 5, plus 5, so 65, plus whatever deferred from '22 into '23 if fast shipments becomes the norm. Is that the way to think about it?

是的，這很清楚，羅傑。作為後續行動，如果快速出貨成為常態，是否可以合理地假設您的 EUV 實際產能實際上增加了 5 個單位，因為您有效地縮短了一個月的周期時間？所以 60 除以 12、65——對不起，5，加上 5，所以 65，加上如果快速發貨成為常態，從 22 年推遲到 23 年的任何東西。是這樣想的嗎？

I think that's directionally correct. That's directionally correct, Didier. And bear in mind, in the output that we had for this year, of course, we already started to have that benefit, right? So there's already that benefit. But then to the extent that we're really able to get all the supply chain issues sorted, get back to a normal cycle time. As you heard before, we're eyeing a regular cycle time of 17 weeks. If we're then able to shave off 3, 4 weeks of testing, then that's the unit number that you could see it increase with. Correct.

我認為這是方向正確的。這是方向正確的，Didier。請記住，在我們今年的產出中，當然，我們已經開始獲得這種好處，對嗎？所以已經有這個好處了。但就我們真正能夠解決所有供應鏈問題而言，回到正常的周期時間。正如您之前聽說的那樣，我們正在關注 17 週的常規週期時間。如果我們隨後能夠縮短 3、4 週的測試時間，那麼這就是您可以看到它增加的單位數量。正確的。

Brilliant. Congratulations. Not too bad for a recession.

傑出的。恭喜。對於經濟衰退來說還算不錯。

Thanks, Didier.

謝謝，迪迪埃。

And our next question comes from the line of Francois-Xavier Bouvignies at UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Francois-Xavier Bouvignies。

So the first one is on, Peter, you mentioned in your remarks that the demand is still above what you are able to do in terms of supply. So in a situation where -- and it's quite often a market share shift within your customer base, in deep UV and EUV. How do you plan to treat that? If you see pushout, let's say, by a couple of quarters so it slips to 2024, do you keep the slot for those customers? Or are you going to reallocate directly to the one that can take it straight away? So just how do you deal with pushout in this kind of allocation market if some customers have some delays? That would be interesting to have your point on that. And I have a quick follow-up.

所以第一個是，彼得，你在你的評論中提到需求仍然高於你在供應方面的能力。因此，在這種情況下——在深紫外線和 EUV 中，客戶群中的市場份額經常發生變化。你打算如何對待它？如果你看到推出，比方說，推遲幾個季度，所以它會下滑到 2024 年，你是否為這些客戶保留了這個位置？還是直接重新分配給能馬上拿走的那家？那麼，如果某些客戶有一些延遲，您如何處理這種分配市場中的推出？就此提出您的觀點會很有趣。我有一個快速的跟進。

Yes. Yes. I think let me be very clear. I mean we are capacity constrained. So if a customer says, "Sorry, we want to reallocate, I want to push it back to 2024," then that slot will be taken by a customer that raises their hand and says, "Ship it to me." And that's what we will do. So that slot will be taken.

是的。是的。我想讓我說得很清楚。我的意思是我們的能力有限。因此，如果客戶說，“抱歉，我們想重新分配，我想將其推遲到 2024 年”，那麼該時段將由舉手說“寄給我”的客戶佔用。這就是我們將要做的。所以那個插槽將被佔用。

And that means that the slot that the customer says, well, I have an order for -- okay, please pull it -- push it back. We just need to negotiate when that pushback is because that pushback could fall into a period which is already fully booked. So this is then fine, if you don't want to do it then. It actually means that it's a kind of a negotiation when it's the first open spot in 2024. That's how it works. So yes, we are just filling it up, and that means customers need to accept the fact that, that tool will not stay here in our premises, in inventory or in work in process until they can ship it. No, it will go.

這意味著客戶說的插槽，好吧，我有一個訂單——好的，請拉它——把它推回去。我們只需要協商何時推遲，因為該推遲可能會進入已經預訂滿的時期。所以這很好，如果你不想這樣做的話。這實際上意味著，當它在 2024 年成為第一個空位時，這是一種談判。這就是它的運作方式。所以是的，我們只是在裝滿它，這意味著客戶需要接受這樣一個事實，即在他們可以發貨之前，該工具不會留在我們的場所、庫存或在製品中。不，它會去的。

Okay. That's very clear. And my quick follow-up is on memory China since we had the restriction on memory China not impacting a lithography based on your previous comments. I mean do you see any pullback or spend pullback on the memory China? Or you still see strong demand on that front?

好的。這很清楚。我的快速跟進是關於內存中國，因為根據您之前的評論，我們對內存中國有不影響光刻的限制。我的意思是你看到內存中國有任何回調或花費回調嗎？或者您仍然看到這方面的強勁需求？

Yes. I think it's not only applicable to China, what I'm going to say. I mean it's applicable to all our Chinese customers and, as a matter of fact, non-Chinese customers also. You need to realize that -- and you actually know that, Francois, I mean, planning and building and executing a new fab is a matter of years. So that means that anything that we shipped this year has been planned in 2021, 2020.

是的。我想這不僅適用於中國，我要說的。我的意思是它適用於我們所有的中國客戶，事實上，也適用於非中國客戶。你需要意識到這一點——你實際上知道，弗朗索瓦，我的意思是，規劃、建造和執行一個新的晶圓廠需要幾年的時間。所以這意味著我們今年發貨的任何東西都計劃在 2021 年、2020 年發貨。

So these plans are there, and we just execute on those plans. Now having said that, it's also clear that we have a demand -- we have a capacity shortage. So we have an over-demand that indeed, when we reallocate, which is true for Chinese and non-Chinese customers, where we have a bit more space to reallocate, then we will reallocate because the demand has been higher than our capacity. So yes, that's true for Chinese and non-Chinese customers. We treat all the customers the same in that way.

所以這些計劃就在那裡，我們只是執行這些計劃。話雖如此，很明顯我們有需求——我們有產能短缺。所以我們確實有一個過度需求，當我們重新分配時，這對中國和非中國客戶來說都是如此，我們有更多的空間可以重新分配，然後我們會重新分配，因為需求已經超過了我們的能力。所以是的，這對中國和非中國客戶都是如此。我們以這種方式對待所有客戶。

So I think we haven't seen any acceleration with just the execution of the plans because those plans are planned for years. You cannot just think of as semi fab and it exists in 6 months' time. So this is why it's just planned. But yes, you will probably see open spots, if you could call it this way or pushbacks of it. There are many customers that raise their hands, it's not only China, not only China, it's across the globe.

所以我認為我們沒有看到僅執行計劃就可以加速，因為這些計劃已經計劃了多年。你不能僅僅認為它是半晶圓廠，它會在 6 個月後存在。所以這就是為什麼它只是計劃中的。但是，是的，如果您可以這樣稱呼它或推回它，您可能會看到空缺的地方。有很多客戶舉手，不只是中國，不只是中國，全世界都是。

And the demand from China remains very strong, right? So we reported last time on this call that the percentage of China in the backlog was around 18%, and that's remained throughout the quarter. As a matter of fact, it's even gone up a little bit. So the demand from China still remains quite strong.

來自中國的需求仍然非常強勁，對吧？所以我們上次在這個電話會議上報告說，中國在積壓訂單中所佔的百分比約為 18%，並且整個季度都保持不變。事實上，它甚至上漲了一點點。因此，來自中國的需求仍然相當強勁。

And our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar at Cowen and Co.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Co. 的 Krish Sankar。

I have two of them. First one, Roger or Peter, just a clarification. On your backlog, can you give us some color if you did not -- if you did, I forgot, I missed it, between EUV and deep UV, Memory and logic foundry?

我有兩個。第一個，羅傑或彼得，只是一個澄清。在你的積壓工作中，如果你沒有，你能給我們一些顏色嗎 - 如果你做了，我忘記了，我錯過了，在 EUV 和深紫外線之間，內存和邏輯代工之間？

Yes. So in the backlog, it's around 25%, 75%. So if you look at the backlog for EUV, around 25% of that is for Memory customers, around 75% of the EUV backlog is for logic.

是的。所以在積壓中，它大約是 25%、75%。因此，如果您查看 EUV 的積壓，其中約 25% 用於內存客戶，約 75% 的 EUV 積壓用於邏輯。

And of the backlog, the total backlog, EUV and deep UV?

在積壓中，總積壓、EUV 和深紫外線？

Of the total backlog, let me see, it's around 55% of that is EUV.

讓我看看，在總積壓中，大約 55% 是 EUV。

Yes.

是的。

Got it. Got it. And then as a follow-up, I just wanted to touch again on the fast shipment. I understand last year and into this year, customers are scrambling to get litho tools and, therefore, they're willing to take fast shipments. In an ideal world, you'd like fast shipments, too. But if things do slow down a little bit, do customers really want fast shipment? Wouldn't they rather have you test the tool in your factory before you ship it to them?

知道了。知道了。然後作為後續行動，我只想再次談談快速發貨。據我了解，去年和今年以來，客戶都在爭先恐後地購買光刻工具，因此他們願意接受快速發貨。在理想的世界中，您也希望快速發貨。但是，如果事情真的慢了一點，客戶真的想要快速發貨嗎？在您將工具運送給他們之前，他們難道不想讓您在工廠中測試該工具嗎？

Well, customers, you could argue, they don't care whether it's a fast shipment or not a fast shipment, they want a tool at a certain moment in time. And that's whether it's fast ship or a regular ship, they don't care. Now we did the fast shipment because we're late, and we were late and the demand was higher than what they -- what we could make. And this actually is a driver for still the fast shipment this year because our demand is higher than what we can make. That has changed.

好吧，客戶，你可能會爭辯說，他們不在乎是快貨還是快貨，他們在某個特定的時刻想要一個工具。而且不管是快船還是普通船，他們都不在乎。現在我們做了快速發貨，因為我們遲到了，我們遲到了，需求高於他們——我們可以製造的。這實際上是今年仍然快速發貨的驅動因素，因為我們的需求高於我們的生產能力。那已經改變了。

So if the customer says you can ship the tool, as long as they know the date of which the tool will arrive, it can be installed and can be signed off. That's the date that they're actually interested in. And as we see it today, there is still a higher demand than what we can make. So it's the same situation.

因此，如果客戶說您可以運送工具，只要他們知道工具到達的日期，就可以安裝並簽收。那是他們真正感興趣的日期。正如我們今天所看到的，需求仍然高於我們的能力。所以這是同樣的情況。

And our next question comes from the line of Alexander Duval at Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alexander Duval。

Congrats on the strong results. Firstly, I wondered if you could just update us on how much bigger demand is than supply. You're obviously still positive on the demand backdrop, even though you talked about utilization and machines having gone down. I think in the past, you talked about more than 30% excess demand versus supply. So is that still the case?

祝賀你取得了優異的成績。首先，我想知道您是否可以向我們更新需求大於供應的情況。你顯然對需求背景仍然持樂觀態度，即使你談到利用率和機器已經下降。我想在過去，你談到超過 30% 的供需過剩。那麼還是這樣嗎？

And then secondly, a housekeeping item, just on OpEx. You've guided for 1Q, which is perhaps a little bit higher than expected. Can you help us put in context what that means for full year OpEx? And specifically, a bit more color on what you're investing in and what that means for harvesting future opportunities and your margin potential?

其次，一個家政用品，就在 OpEx 上。您已經指導了第一季度，這可能比預期的要高一點。您能否幫助我們了解這對全年運營支出意味著什麼？具體來說，更詳細地說明您正在投資什麼，以及這對收穫未來機會和您的利潤潛力意味著什麼？

Yes. I'll do the first part of the question, and Roger will take the second part. I think on the 30% excess, the amount of supply actually is more like 50%. So now that has come down, but it's still significantly double digit above our capacity. So -- and like I said earlier in an answer to an earlier question, yes, of course, we also see the reflection of the demand curve because of the weakness in, for instance, the consumer demand clearly. So some of that over-demand has gone away, but it's still there. And it was actually not 30%, it was more like 50%. And it's come down now to -- it's still significantly double digit. Roger?

是的。我會做問題的第一部分，Roger 會做第二部分。我認為在 30% 的過剩部分，供應量實際上更像是 50%。所以現在已經下降了，但它仍然比我們的能力高出兩位數。所以 - 就像我早些時候在回答之前的問題時所說的那樣，是的，當然，我們也看到了需求曲線的反映，因為例如消費者需求明顯疲軟。所以一些過度需求已經消失，但它仍然存在。它實際上不是 30%，更像是 50%。現在已經下降到 - 它仍然是兩位數。羅傑？

Yes. Alexander, on the OpEx question, I think the numbers that we gave you are, I think, a pretty good proxy for the full year. I think what I -- if you take them together, it's close to 19% that I would model for OpEx, so for SG&A and R&D combined for the full year.

是的。亞歷山大，關於運營支出問題，我認為我們給你的數字是全年的一個很好的代表。我想我——如果你把它們放在一起，我會為 OpEx 建模接近 19%，所以對於全年的 SG&A 和 R&D 來說。

Of course, we had significant hiring in the course of Q4. Those people are added to the year, if you like, in terms of headcount. Of course, we had increases in wages. And of course, that kicks in from Q4 to Q1. But that's the rate I would assume for the full year. In terms of what do we get for that, very good question. So on the SG&A side, obviously, this is in line with the growth of the company. So you continue to see us operate around 4%-ish SG&A percentage of sales.

當然，我們在第四季度進行了大量招聘。如果你願意，這些人會被添加到年度中。當然，我們的工資有所增加。當然，這從第四季度開始到第一季度。但這是我假設的全年利率。就我們為此得到什麼而言，這是一個非常好的問題。所以在 SG&A 方面，顯然，這符合公司的增長。因此，您繼續看到我們的 SG&A 銷售額佔銷售額的 4% 左右。

As you also would have seen, if you look at the 2025 and 2030 scenarios that we've talked about, you see it coming down a little bit, and that's clearly the intention to get some operational leverage there. But for the fast-growing company that we are, investments like these are necessary to make sure that the organization has run in a very professional way, that security is up to scratch, that the IT support for our professionals is up to scratch, et cetera, et cetera. So that's what we're doing on the SG&A side.

正如你也會看到的那樣，如果你看看我們討論過的 2025 年和 2030 年的情景，你會發現它有所下降，這顯然是為了在那裡獲得一些運營槓桿。但對於我們這樣一家快速發展的公司來說，這樣的投資是必要的，以確保組織以非常專業的方式運行，安全性達到標準，對我們專業人員的 IT 支持達到標準，等等等等等等。這就是我們在 SG&A 方面正在做的事情。

On the R&D side, this really is the very, very aggressive road map that we have on all cylinders. So this is deep UV. And as Peter mentioned earlier on, this is not just a deep UV on the immersion side where we continue to drive immersion but also, this is on the -- on the dry side, KrF. So for KrF, we continue to drive road maps for smaller customers on the XT platform for larger customers operating large fabs on an NXT platform. We're looking at i-Line road maps. We have a very broad road map that we have on metrology and inspection. And obviously, we continue to drive both low-NA and high-NA. So it's a very extensive road map, more extensive than we've ever had before in the history of the company.

在研發方面，這確實是我們在所有汽缸上擁有的非常、非常積極的路線圖。所以這是深紫外線。正如彼得之前提到的，這不僅僅是我們繼續推動沉浸的浸入式深紫外線，而且，這是在乾燥的一面，KrF。因此，對於 KrF，我們繼續為 XT 平台上的小型客戶制定路線圖，以供在 NXT 平台上運營大型晶圓廠的大型客戶使用。我們正在查看 i-Line 路線圖。我們有一個非常廣泛的計量和檢測路線圖。顯然，我們繼續推動低 NA 和高 NA。所以這是一個非常廣泛的路線圖，比我們公司歷史上的任何時候都更加廣泛。

And of course, all of this is conducive to the goals that we've been talking about and the scenarios that we've been talking about at the Investor Day for 2025 and 2030. So yes, definitely significant investment, but definitely rewarding if you look at the potential that we see in the market for those products.

當然，所有這些都有助於實現我們一直在討論的目標以及我們在 2025 年和 2030 年投資者日討論的情景。所以是的，絕對是重大投資，但如果你看看我們在市場上看到的這些產品的潛力。

Yes. I think it's what Roger said. I mean our relentless focus on innovation and R&D has paid off handsomely in terms of value that we could create with our products, but also the extension of our market shares, the integration of our product offering into a kind of a holistic approach and value to our customers, that will only increase going forward. I mean things in semiconductor manufacturing will not get easier. They are getting more complex.

是的。我想這就是羅傑所說的。我的意思是，我們對創新和研發的不懈關注在我們可以用我們的產品創造的價值方面取得了豐厚的回報，而且還擴大了我們的市場份額，將我們的產品整合為一種整體方法和價值我們的客戶，未來只會增加。我的意思是半導體製造中的事情不會變得更容易。它們變得越來越複雜。

It actually means that the entire product portfolio focused on patterning, patterning the 2-nanometer, the 1.5- to 1-nanometer and beyond, that is going to be significantly valuable to our customers. And that means we need to spend on R&D that Roger just talked about to make sure that all the ingredients for that value recipe are actually there. And that's what we need to do. And it has served us extremely well in the past, it will serve us extremely well going forward.

這實際上意味著整個產品組合專注於圖案化，圖案化 2 納米、1.5 至 1 納米及更遠，這對我們的客戶來說非常有價值。這意味著我們需要在 Roger 剛剛談到的研發上投入資金，以確保該價值配方的所有成分都確實存在。這就是我們需要做的。它在過去為我們提供了非常好的服務，它將為我們的未來提供非常好的服務。

And our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini at SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

A couple of follow-ups. Peter, based on your conversation with customers over the past month or 2, has anything changed with your assumptions since the Analyst Day? I hear -- what I hear from you is pretty much the same as what we heard in November, which is also consistent with what you said in October. On the surface, it seems like there hasn't been any change to the customer zone or how they're planning despite the fact that end market demand is weaker. And I'm just wondering if there's anything else you can share.

一些後續行動。 Peter，根據你過去一兩個月與客戶的談話，自分析師日以來你的假設有什麼變化嗎？我聽說 - 我從你那裡聽到的與我們在 11 月份聽到的幾乎相同，這也與你在 10 月份所說的一致。從表面上看，儘管終端市場需求疲軟，但客戶區或他們的計劃似乎沒有任何變化。我只是想知道您是否還有其他可以分享的內容。

Yes. So I think what we definitely see in the discussion with the customers, they are addressing the short-term challenges, it's just clear. I mean they basically say, "No, we need to -- we see inventories rising. We need to rebalance the inventory. So how do you do that?" So you just lower the utilization of the tools. That's short term, they're very clear. They're also very clear about their confidence in the long-term growth trajectory of the industry and of the need for significantly more semiconductors in all kinds of applications.

是的。所以我認為我們在與客戶的討論中肯定看到的是，他們正在應對短期挑戰，這很清楚。我的意思是他們基本上說，“不，我們需要——我們看到庫存在增加。我們需要重新平衡庫存。那麼你是怎麼做到的？”所以你只是降低了工具的利用率。這是短期的，他們非常清楚。他們也非常清楚他們對該行業的長期增長軌跡以及在各種應用中需要大量半導體的信心。

I think it's without any exception, customers are talking about the medium- to long-term growth trajectory of the industry. That hasn't changed. It is also why, of course, there are short-term concerns like always short-term concerns. They say, "What am I going to do short term that will not impact my long-term targets?" That's basically the question, what they have. That's why, yes, some of them have adjusted their CapEx plans, but they say, "What is absolutely essential to secure our long-term growth path?" We will still do, which of course, this is why litho is a very strategic tool. This is why the litho orders keep coming.

我認為無一例外，客戶都在談論行業的中長期增長軌跡。那沒有改變。當然，這也是為什麼總是存在短期擔憂的原因。他們說，“我要做什麼短期的事情不會影響我的長期目標？”這基本上就是問題，他們有什麼。這就是為什麼，是的，他們中的一些人已經調整了他們的資本支出計劃，但他們說，“什麼是確保我們的長期增長道路絕對必要的？”我們仍然會這樣做，當然，這就是為什麼光刻是一種非常具有戰略意義的工具。這就是光刻訂單不斷湧現的原因。

So in that sense, yes, things have changed short term, and they are reacting. But longer term, and in the CMD, the Capital Markets Day, we didn't talk about Q4 or Q1. We talked about 2025 and 2030. And that's exactly the discussion we're having with customers. I would even say that the longer-term road map this time with our large customers have intensified to a level we have not seen before.

所以從這個意義上說，是的，事情在短期內發生了變化，他們正在做出反應。但從長遠來看，在 CMD 資本市場日，我們沒有談論第四季度或第一季度。我們談到了 2025 年和 2030 年。這正是我們與客戶進行的討論。我什至會說這次與我們的大客戶的長期路線圖已經加強到我們以前從未見過的水平。

So like I said earlier, it's not getting easier, it's getting more complex. But it also means that the [cooperation] models that we have with our key customers are actually intensifying. And that just confirms not only the technology road map, but it also confirms the capacity plans that they have and the confidence we both have in the growth of this industry. So in that sense, Mehdi, nothing changed in 2 months' time.

所以就像我之前說的，它並沒有變得更容易，而是變得越來越複雜。但這也意味著我們與主要客戶的 [合作] 模式實際上正在加強。這不僅證實了技術路線圖，還證實了他們的產能計劃以及我們對這個行業發展的信心。所以從這個意義上說，Mehdi，兩個月的時間裡沒有任何變化。

And just quickly regarding your calendar year '23. If the non-EUV revenue is growing by 30%, how should I think about the mix of metrology and inspection?

很快就可以了解您的 23 年日曆年。如果非 EUV 收入增長 30%，我應該如何考慮計量和檢測的組合？

Yes, it is in there. Yes, I think it's the 30%. I think it applies roughly to all of it. I mean you have to remember that our metrology tools have a very strong attach rate to our deep UV tools. So yes, they're in line. So it's for both.

是的，它在裡面。是的，我認為是 30%。我認為它大致適用於所有這些。我的意思是你必須記住，我們的計量工具對我們的深紫外線工具有很強的附著率。所以是的，他們在排隊。所以這是雙方的。

And our next question comes from the line of Amit Harchandani at Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Amit Harchandani。

Amit Harchandani from Citi. Two questions, if I may. My first question again goes back to the non-EUV business. The significant growth that you have guided for in 2023, which admittedly is aligned with some of the points you made at the Capital Markets Day, but clearly, that's where I feel investors also need the greatest -- need to see the greatest level of comfort.

來自花旗的 Amit Harchandani。兩個問題，如果可以的話。我的第一個問題再次回到非 EUV 業務。您所指導的 2023 年顯著增長，誠然，這與您在資本市場日提出的一些觀點是一致的，但顯然，這也是我認為投資者也最需要的——需要看到最大程度的安慰.

So could you give us a sense on the DUV drivers, your level of confidence in the demand, the level of discussions you are having around lagging edge? And simply reverse engineering your 30% guide does suggest that you'll get pretty close to the 375 capacity number that you've talked about. So any thoughts on DUV would be appreciated. And then I have a second question.

那麼，您能否讓我們了解一下 DUV 驅動程序、您對需求的信心程度以及您圍繞落後優勢進行的討論程度？簡單地對您的 30% 指南進行逆向工程確實表明您將非常接近您所說的 375 容量數字。因此，對 DUV 的任何想法將不勝感激。然後我有第二個問題。

Okay. Yes, I think you have to realize, and it goes back to what I said earlier, that the biggest shortage in terms of demand -- or let's say, shortage in terms of capacity or shipment was in deep UV. So there is a backlog of deep UV investments that were planned by customers that we're now able to fulfill. You should not underestimate the size of the gap in deep UV, which is one element. And that's especially true for those geographic areas where we cannot ship EUV, but deep UV is the, as you could say, the workhorse for the mature and less critical semiconductors, i.e., China. So that space, let's say, is strong.

好的。是的，我認為你必須意識到，這可以追溯到我之前所說的，需求方面最大的短缺——或者說，產能或運輸方面的短缺是在深紫外線方面。因此，我們現在能夠實現客戶計劃的深紫外線投資積壓。你不應該低估深紫外線差距的大小，這是一個元素。對於我們無法運送 EUV 的那些地理區域尤其如此，但正如你可以說的那樣，深紫外線是成熟且不太重要的半導體的主力軍，即中國。所以那個空間，比方說，是強大的。

On top of that, if you have more EUV sales, well, you don't make a chip for a semiconductor device with only EUV. I mean so if you grow the EUV base, we need a lot of deep UV layers. While the layer growth, nodal node is there, as it's always been there. So this is also an extra driver against the background of the fact that we can't ship enough. So this is what is happening. There are very few customers, which by the way, when you look at the industrial domain and you look at, for instance, some of the smaller IDMs, smaller -- I don't need to -- but it's important customers, but have just simply don't buy the same quantities as the 3 or 4 large customers.

最重要的是，如果你有更多的 EUV 銷售，那麼你就不會為僅使用 EUV 的半導體設備製造芯片。我的意思是，如果你發展 EUV 基礎，我們需要很多深紫外線層。當層增長時，節點節點就在那裡，因為它一直在那裡。因此，這也是在我們出貨量不足的情況下額外增加的驅動程序。所以這就是正在發生的事情。客戶很少，順便說一句，當你看看工業領域，比如一些較小的 IDM，較小的——我不需要——但它是重要的客戶，但是有只是不要購買與 3 或 4 個大客戶相同的數量。

There in the industrial domain, they still call me and tell me, "Where is my deep UV tool?" And up to tools, multiple, yes? That's also happening. So it's the shortage that's still there. And it's, of course, I fully understand from an investor point of view to say, yes, but we also see the weakness in the consumer markets, we see inventories going up.

在工業領域，他們仍然打電話告訴我，“我的深紫外線工具在哪裡？”還有工具，多種，是嗎？這也在發生。所以短缺仍然存在。當然，從投資者的角度來看，我完全理解，是的，但我們也看到了消費市場的疲軟，我們看到庫存在增加。

But in a specific domain, anywhere between 45- and 20-nanometer, it's still short. And definitely in certain industrial domains like automotive and just industry in general. So this is still there. And this is why there are a couple of drivers. Like I said, it's, of course, China. It's -- EUV will need deep UV, and it's the deep UV OEMs that are in the sweet spot of where the shortage is. And then these are the reasons.

但在特定領域，45 到 20 納米之間的任何地方，它仍然很短。而且肯定是在某些工業領域，例如汽車和一般工業。所以這仍然存在。這就是為什麼有幾個驅動程序的原因。就像我說的，當然是中國。這是——EUV 將需要深紫外線，而正是深紫外線 OEM 處於短缺的最佳位置。然後這些就是原因。

Understood. Very helpful, Peter. And as a second question, if I may go back to the topic of the gross margin evolution over the course of 2023. You've talked about a gradual improvement over 2022. At the same time, looking at your top line guidance, it seems like your ASPs are going to rise over the course of 2023. You obviously have greater operating leverage. Is the mix effect so strong, that's triggering this incremental step-up in gross margin? I guess I'm just trying to get a sense of what that incremental step-up is going to be in '23? And what are the headwinds which are offsetting some of the tailwinds you have highlighted earlier?

明白了。非常有幫助，彼得。作為第二個問題，我是否可以回到 2023 年期間毛利率演變的話題。你談到了 2022 年的逐步改善。與此同時，看看你的頂線指導，似乎就像您的 ASP 將在 2023 年期間上升一樣。您顯然擁有更大的運營槓桿。混合效應是否如此強大，從而觸發了毛利率的逐步上升？我想我只是想了解 23 年的漸進式提升會是什麼？抵消您之前強調的一些順風的逆風是什麼？

Yes, Amit, let me take that one. So many moving parts to the gross margin. We already alluded to one, which is the inflation one. So on inflation, it's important to recognize, yes, on the one hand, we will get some compensation. Yes, that will lead to an increase in ASP, but we're also getting inflation on the cost side, both on parts and on labor. So net-net, that will still be -- that will be an improvement over the 1.5% negative that we talked about last year, but it's still a drag on the gross margin in comparison to, for instance, what we had in 2021, but still an improvement over the year. So that's one element.

是的，阿米特，讓我拿那個。如此多的移動部件影響了毛利率。我們已經提到了一個，那就是通貨膨脹。所以關於通貨膨脹，重要的是要認識到，是的，一方面，我們會得到一些補償。是的，這將導致 ASP 的增加，但我們也在成本方面出現通貨膨脹，包括零件和人工。所以淨淨值仍然會 - 這將比我們去年談到的 1.5% 的負增長有所改善，但與例如我們 2021 年的情況相比，它仍然拖累毛利率，但仍然比一年有所改善。這是一個要素。

The second element, of course, the fast shipment. Last year, we had a drag of 1.5% on the fast shipment. Of course, that drag is gone because as I mentioned, we expect the fast shipment amount coming into the year to also lose out of the year. So that 1.5% drag is gone. So that's also a positive in comparison to last year.

第二要素，當然是出貨快。去年，我們對快速出貨造成了 1.5% 的拖累。當然，這種拖累已經消失了，因為正如我所提到的，我們預計今年的快速出貨量也會在今年減少。這樣 1.5% 的阻力就消失了。因此，與去年相比，這也是一個積極因素。

Then volume goes up, both on the EV side and on the deep UV side, so that gives you a bit of a positive. Mix effect in the deep UV business is slightly negative because of the increase in the dry business that we also talked about. So that's a slight negative. And then there are 2 big ones to bear in mind.

然後在 EV 側和深紫外線側的體積都會增加，所以這會給你帶來一些積極的影響。由於我們也談到了乾燥業務的增加，深紫外線業務的混合效應略有負面。所以這是一個輕微的負面影響。然後有兩個大的要記住。

First off, as you would have seen, we're pretty cautious, if you want to call it that way, on the installed base business. And of course, you can assume that the service business will continue to grow. So then if we only guide 5% increase on the total installed base business, that implies that the upgrade business that we have in there is actually contracting. So that might -- that's up for speculation because that's the one that's hardest to plan for reasons that we talked about before. But we assume that the upgrade business will be lower and that, of course, is a big drag on the gross margin.

首先，正如你所看到的，如果你想這樣稱呼它，我們對已安裝的基礎業務非常謹慎。當然，您可以假設服務業務將繼續增長。因此，如果我們只指導總安裝基礎業務增長 5%，這意味著我們在那裡擁有的升級業務實際上正在收縮。所以這可能 - 這有待猜測，因為由於我們之前談到的原因，這是最難計劃的。但我們假設升級業務會更低，這當然會嚴重拖累毛利率。

And then the last element in the gross margin, and that's important to recognize, and we've been talking about this before, but I just want to emphasize it. We are incurring significant costs in our operations as it relates to preparing for both high-NA and preparing for the big step changes that we're making in our capacity.

然後是毛利率的最後一個因素，認識到這一點很重要，我們之前一直在談論這個，但我只想強調一下。我們在運營中產生了巨大的成本，因為這涉及到為高 NA 做準備以及為我們正在能力中進行的重大變革做準備。

Do not underestimate that. That's a significant number. It's an even bigger number than it was last year. And of course, that continues until the point in time where the capacity is built and will be fully utilized or -- and/or high-NA is going to be utilized. So that's a drag that we continue to have, and it's bigger, as I mentioned, in '23 and -- than it was in '22. So those are the moving parts.

不要低估這一點。這是一個很大的數字。這個數字比去年還要大。當然，這種情況一直持續到構建容量並將被充分利用或 - 和/或高 NA 將被利用的時間點。所以這是我們繼續存在的阻力，正如我提到的那樣，它在 23 年和 22 年比 22 年更大。所以那些是移動部件。

That's why we say, if you add it all up, we're talking about a slight improvement over last year. I think it's important to note, Amit, that if you look at all of that, a number of the negatives will be gone, let's say, in the '25 time frame. And that's why Peter also reiterated in his video that we believe the 54% to 56% is still there because at that point in time, the capacity is there and should also be utilized. And the same high-NA at that point would be up and running. And also potentially, the installed base business at that point would be normalized. So I think that's the way to look at it.

這就是為什麼我們說，如果你把它全部加起來，我們談論的是比去年略有改善。我認為重要的是要注意，阿米特，如果你看看所有這些，那麼在 25 年的時間框架內，一些負面因素將會消失。這就是為什麼彼得還在他的視頻中重申，我們認為 54% 到 56% 仍然存在，因為在那個時間點，容量已經存在並且也應該被利用。那時同樣的高 NA 將啟動並運行。也有可能，屆時已安裝的基礎業務將正常化。所以我認為這就是看待它的方式。

And our next question comes from the line of [Sabas Aria] of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的[Sabas Aria]。

This is Sandeep Deshpande here. I just want to touch base back again at the gross margin. I mean you've talked about the EUR 3.1 billion of fast shipment being recognized in '23 and then potentially as much going into the following year. I mean does that have an impact on the gross margin? Or is it completely neutral to your gross margin?

我是 Sandeep Deshpande。我只想在毛利率上再次觸底。我的意思是你已經談到了 23 年確認的 31 億歐元的快速出貨量，然後可能會進入下一年。我的意思是這對毛利率有影響嗎？還是對您的毛利率完全中性？

And secondly, in terms of the cost crossover on the gross margin, which was expected to happen in the second half of this year between EUV and deep UV, is that happening? And I have a quick follow-up.

其次，就毛利率的成本交叉而言，預計今年下半年 EUV 和深 UV 之間會發生這種情況嗎？我有一個快速的跟進。

Okay. So on the effect of the fast shipments, if indeed we're going to have the same number going into the year as we see leaving the year, then the impact is 0. Of course, the impact, and as I mentioned before, Sandeep, if indeed we're going to see some change in our revenue recognition, of course, that would be a potential plus for the gross margin. But we're not planning on that in the numbers that we've now shared with you.

好的。因此，關於快速出貨的影響，如果我們確實要進入這一年和離開這一年時看到相同的數字，那麼影響就是 0。當然，影響，正如我之前提到的，Sandeep ，如果我們確實要看到我們的收入確認發生一些變化，當然，那將是毛利率的潛在優勢。但我們並沒有在我們現在與您分享的數字中計劃這一點。

Do you have another question, Sandeep?

你還有其他問題嗎，桑迪普？

Yes. No, sorry. My follow-up on that on the gross margin was the crossover.

是的。不，對不起。我對毛利率的後續行動是交叉。

Yes, the crossover. So EUV system gross margin at this stage around 50%, so more or less the corporate gross margin. What we said is there will be a point in time where you will also see EUV system gross margin getting closer and closer to the immersion business. There, I think the introduction of the 3800 is going to be a big one. So the introduction of the E model, the 3800E, by the end of this year even though, as we mentioned, it's only less than a handful this year. So the impact on the year will be small. But once the 3800E is going to be the lion's share of the EUV tool, then you will really see a good boost to the gross margin that will have on EUV.

是的，交叉。所以現階段EUV系統毛利率在50%左右，所以企業毛利率差不多。我們說的是會有一個時間點，你也會看到EUV系統的毛利率越來越接近浸入式業務。在那裡，我認為 3800 的推出將是一件大事。因此，E 型號 3800E 將於今年年底推出，儘管正如我們提到的那樣，今年只有不到少數。所以對年的影響會很小。但是一旦 3800E 將成為 EUV 工具的最大份額，那麼您將真正看到 EUV 毛利率的良好提升。

And just one quick follow-up on China, Peter. I mean I know you don't really want to talk about it, given everything is still up in the air. But when we look at what your competitors have done in other markets, there could be a future impact to ASML from whatever is negotiated in China. How should we look at it into 2023 year such really? I mean clearly, without quantifying it, will there be an impact? Or do you think that you have enough in your backlog that you could recognize through the year, which would mean that there should be no impact to ASML at all?

彼得，只是對中國的快速跟進。我的意思是我知道你真的不想談論它，因為一切都還懸而未決。但是當我們看看你的競爭對手在其他市場所做的事情時，未來在中國談判的任何事情都可能對 ASML 產生影響。真的到了2023年我們應該怎麼看呢？我的意思很明確，不量化，會不會有影響？或者你認為你的積壓工作中有足夠多的可以在一年中識別出來，這意味著對 ASML 應該沒有任何影響？

It's a good question, Sandeep, but it really depends on what the outcome of the export control negotiations are because we can speculate all kinds of scenarios, what that would be and what the impact would be. The only thing is that we have a safe buffer, you could say, between the demand and our output capability. So it fully depends on what the outcome is. And it's not that I want to talk about that. I don't want to talk about China. I want to talk about China, it's no problem. What I cannot do is just tell you what the impact of the potential outcome is because I don't know the outcome. That's the only thing that -- so I just don't want to speculate. That's the only thing. But I think I find comfort in the significant buffer, you could say, between the demand curve and our output capability.

這是一個很好的問題，Sandeep，但這實際上取決於出口管制談判的結果是什麼，因為我們可以推測各種情況，會是什麼以及會產生什麼影響。唯一的問題是我們在需求和我們的輸出能力之間有一個安全的緩衝區，你可以說。所以這完全取決於結果是什麼。這並不是我想談論的。我不想談論中國。我想談談中國，沒問題。我不能做的只是告訴你潛在結果的影響是什麼，因為我不知道結果。這是唯一的事情 - 所以我只是不想推測。這是唯一的事情。但我認為我在需求曲線和我們的產出能力之間的顯著緩衝中找到了安慰，你可以說。

All right. We have time for one last question. If you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Now operator, may we have the last caller, please?

好的。我們有時間問最後一個問題。如果您未能接通此電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯繫 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。現在接線員，我們可以請最後一位來電者嗎？

That comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc at Societe Generale.

這來自法國興業銀行的 Aleksander Peterc。

So just a final question would really be on your indication on EUV ASPs in 2023. Now you obviously highlighted it's slightly down versus '22. Is that a conservative assessment? And if you could maybe think about the elements that pushed the EUV ASP to such high levels in '22, those will not be achievable this year. And then I have a very quick follow-up with the E system, obviously. Should we also assume that if we look at the increased current for that machine, that you will basically keep half of the increase for yourself and the other half will be given to your customers as per the usual?

因此，最後一個問題實際上是關於您對 2023 年 EUV ASP 的指示。現在您顯然強調它與 22 年相比略有下降。這是一個保守的評估嗎？而且，如果您可以考慮在 22 年將 EUV ASP 推至如此高水平的因素，那麼今年將無法實現這些因素。顯然，然後我對 E 系統進行了非常快速的跟進。我們是否還應該假設，如果我們查看該機器增加的電流，您基本上會為自己保留增加的一半，而另一半將像往常一樣提供給您的客戶？

Yes. Thanks, Aleksander. So as I mentioned, gradually, over these calls, we've increased the ASP of the D model that we've given to you. So it started with EUR 160 million and we said use EUR 165 million, and I just said, use somewhere between EUR 165 million and EUR 170 million. You're right that if you just calculate the ASP in the quarters in 2022, sometimes you've got to some higher numbers. But the reason that, that was the case, as we've also explained on previous calls, those were one-offs as a result of revenue deferrals that were in there. So sometimes, that led to a remeasurement of those deferrals. And that then sometimes, because we're also looking at distributing those adjustments over a very limited number of tools, that could actually have quite a significant impact. But we've always said normalize that, don't take for granted that those numbers are the right numbers to use on a go-forward basis.

是的。謝謝，亞歷山大。因此，正如我提到的那樣，在這些電話中，我們逐漸增加了我們提供給您的 D 模型的 ASP。所以它從 1.6 億歐元開始，我們說使用 1.65 億歐元，我只是說，使用 1.65 億歐元到 1.7 億歐元之間的某個地方。你是對的，如果你只計算 2022 年各季度的平均售價，有時你會得到一些更高的數字。但原因是，正如我們在之前的電話會議上也解釋過的那樣，這是一次性的，因為其中存在收入延期。所以有時，這導致了對這些延期的重新衡量。然後有時，因為我們也在考慮將這些調整分佈在數量非常有限的工具上，這實際上可能會產生相當大的影響。但我們一直說要規範化，不要想當然地認為這些數字是在前進的基礎上使用的正確數字。

So it's not that anything bad happened. As a matter of fact, something good happened because systemically, I think the ASP on the D has gone up. As it relates to the pricing of the E, yes, I mean, definitely, we're still sharing value with the customers. I mean that's a fundamental principle in the way we do business with our customers. We want to make sure that the incremental value that the tool provides over the predecessor tool is being fairly shared between the customer and ourselves. So that promise has not changed.

所以這並不是說發生了什麼不好的事情。事實上，一些好事發生了，因為系統地，我認為 D 上的 ASP 已經上升。因為它與 E 的定價有關，是的，我的意思是，我們仍然與客戶分享價值。我的意思是，這是我們與客戶開展業務的基本原則。我們希望確保該工具提供的相對於前身工具的增量價值在客戶和我們自己之間公平共享。所以這個承諾沒有改變。

If you look at the way that pans out because you need to recognize value is a whole bunch of things, value is better imaging quality, value is better overlay, value is higher productivity. If you add it all up, then in the past, you saw a pretty strong correlation between improvement in productivity and ASP increase. And that historically, on EUV, there was sort of a near 100% correlation there.

如果你看一下平移的方式，因為你需要認識到價值是一大堆東西，價值是更好的成像質量，價值是更好的覆蓋，價值是更高的生產力。如果你把所有這些加起來，那麼在過去，你會發現生產力的提高與 ASP 的增長之間存在很強的相關性。從歷史上看，在 EUV 上，那裡有一種接近 100% 的相關性。

As you know, ultimately, on the 3800E, we'll see an improvement in productivity, 160 wafers per hour to 220. That will be in stages, but ultimately the 220 is the stage that we'll get to. So that definitely means that we're going to have a pretty significant improvement of the ASP. And I think that, that also should play out in your models.

如您所知，最終，在 3800E 上，我們將看到生產率的提高，從每小時 160 片晶圓提高到 220 片。這將分階段進行，但最終我們將達到 220 片。所以這絕對意味著我們將對 ASP 進行相當顯著的改進。而且我認為，這也應該在您的模型中發揮作用。

And in addition to that, it doesn't mean that this goes without any cost increase. I mean it's not that go down straight down to the bottom line. Why? Because the 3800, as we mentioned in many occasions, actually sees the first introduction of technology that we are applying in the high-NA tool. So there is also a sort of new stages, so it's also a cost element there. So it's not a one-to-one increase in ASP going to the gross margin. But yes, you'll see gross margin increase, but also a cost increase because we are using the latest and greatest technology out of high-NA backported into the 3800. So just...

除此之外，這並不意味著這不會增加任何成本。我的意思是，這並不是直達底線。為什麼？因為3800，正如我們在很多場合提到的，實際上看到了我們在高NA工具中應用的技術的第一個介紹。所以還有一種新的階段，所以它也是一個成本要素。因此，平均售價與毛利率的增長並不是一對一的增長。但是，是的，您會看到毛利率增加，但也會看到成本增加，因為我們正在使用從高 NA 向後移植到 3800 中的最新和最好的技術。所以只是......

That's correct. Yes.

這是正確的。是的。

All right. So now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

好的。所以現在我代表 ASML，感謝大家今天加入我們。接線員，如果你能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝你。

Thank you. This concludes the ASML 2022 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。 ASML 2022 年第四季度和全年財務業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。