艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2022 Third quarter financial results conference call on October 19, 2022. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 2022 年 10 月 19 日舉行的 ASML 2022 第三季度財務業績電話會議。（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將電話會議轉交給 Skip Miller 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen.

謝謝你，接線員。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是 ASML 的首席執行官 Peter Wennink；和我們的首席財務官 Roger Dassen。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2022 third quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 的 2022 年第三季度業績。此電話的長度為 60 分鐘，問題將按照收到的順序進行處理。該電話也通過互聯網在 asml.com 上進行直播。本次電話會議結束後不久，我們的網站上將提供管理層的開幕致辭和電話會議的重播。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com, and in the ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理層在本次電話會議期間發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。對於風險因素的討論，我鼓勵您查看我們網站 asml.com 上的今天新聞稿和演示文稿中包含的安全港聲明，以及 ASML 的 20-F 表格年度報告和其他文件證券交易委員會。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 進行簡要介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2022 results conference call. And before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the third quarter 2022 results and as well provide our view of the coming quarters. Roger will start with a review of our third quarter 2022 financial performance, with some added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook. Roger, if you would? .

謝謝你，跳過。歡迎大家。感謝您參加我們的 2022 年第三季度業績電話會議。在我們開始問答環節之前，羅杰和我想對 2022 年第三季度的業績進行概述和一些評論，並提供我們對未來幾個季度的看法。羅傑將首先回顧我們 2022 年第三季度的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景進行一些補充評論，我將完成對當前商業環境和我們未來商業前景的一些補充評論。羅傑，如果你願意？ .

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the third quarter financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the fourth quarter of 2022. Net sales came in at EUR 5.8 billion, above our guidance due to faster completion of installations triggering earlier revenue recognition, a release of deferred income on a factory option which has now been accepted at customer sites as well as higher installed base business. We shipped 13 EUV systems and recognized EUR 2.2 billion revenue from 12 systems this quarter. Net system sales of EUR 4.3 billion, which was again driven by Logic at 68% and the remaining 32% from Memory. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.5 billion, above guidance due to higher upgrade revenue.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第三季度的財務業績，然後提供 2022 年第四季度的指導。淨銷售額為 58 億歐元，高於我們的指導，因為安裝完成速度更快，觸發了更早的收入確認，遞延收入的釋放工廠選項現已被客戶現場以及更高的安裝基礎業務所接受。本季度我們出貨了 13 個 EUV 系統，並從 12 個系統確認了 22 億歐元的收入。系統淨銷售額為 43 億歐元，再次由 Logic 推動，佔 68%，其餘 32% 來自 Memory。由於升級收入增加，本季度安裝基礎管理的銷售額為 15 億歐元，高於預期。

Gross margin for the quarter came in at 51.8%, which is above our guidance, primarily due to the pull-in of revenue from both the release of deferred income on a factory option as well as additional upgrade business. On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 819 million and SG&A expenses of EUR 236 million, as guided.

本季度的毛利率為 51.8%，高於我們的預期，這主要是由於工廠期權遞延收入的釋放以及額外的升級業務帶來的收入。根據指導，在運營費用方面，研發費用為 8.19 億歐元，SG&A 費用為 2.36 億歐元。

Net income in Q3 was EUR 1.7 billion, representing 29.4% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 4.29.

第三季度的淨收入為 17 億歐元，占淨銷售額的 29.4%，每股收益為 4.29 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 3.4 billion.

轉向資產負債表。第三季度末，我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資達到 34 億歐元。

Moving to the order book. Q3 net systems bookings came in at a record EUR 8.9 billion, reflecting the continued strong customer demand for both advanced and mature nodes. Strong order intake of EUR 3.8 billion for EUV systems, including NA as well as EUR 5.1 billion for non-EUV systems, which is DTV and metrology and inspection system. Total net systems bookings was driven by Logic with 77% of the bookings and memory accounting for the remaining 23%.

轉到訂單簿。第三季度淨系統預訂達到創紀錄的 89 億歐元，反映出客戶對先進和成熟節點的持續強勁需求。包括北美在內的 EUV 系統訂單量強勁，達到 38 億歐元，非 EUV 系統（即 DTV 和計量和檢測系統）訂單量為 51 億歐元。總淨系統預訂由 Logic 驅動，其中 77% 的預訂和內存佔剩餘的 23%。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the fourth quarter of '22. We expect Q4 total net sales to be between EUR 6.1 billion and EUR 6.6 billion. This excludes around EUR 100 million of net delay revenue for Q4 as a result of more expected fast shipments at the end of Q4 and at the end of Q3. We expect our Q4 installed base management sales to be around EUR 1.6 billion. Gross margin for Q4 is expected to be around 49%. The improved margin effect of higher volume relative to Q3 is more than offset by negative margin effects primarily from DTV mix pulling of revenue recognition on higher-margin factory options from Q4 into Q3, and inflation costs hitting us this quarter. This translates to an expected gross margin approaching 50% for the full year.

有了這個，我想談談我們對 22 年第四季度的預期。我們預計第四季度總淨銷售額將在 61 億歐元至 66 億歐元之間。這不包括第四季度約 1 億歐元的淨延遲收入，原因是第四季度末和第三季度末預計會有更多的快速出貨。我們預計第四季度的安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 16 億歐元。第四季度的毛利率預計在 49% 左右。與第三季度相比，銷量增加帶來的利潤率改善被負面的利潤率影響所抵消，這主要是由於 DTV 組合從第四季度到第三季度對利潤率較高的工廠選項的收入確認以及本季度通脹成本對我們造成的影響。這意味著全年的預期毛利率接近 50%。

The expected R&D expenses for Q4 are around EUR 880 million and SG&A is expected to be around EUR 265 million. The higher R&D guidance is primarily due to additional headcount and labor cost increases. Higher SG&A is mainly due to additional headcount and IT spending. There are also some small negative foreign exchange effects on both R&D and SG&A. Our estimated 2022 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be around 15%.

第四季度的預計研發費用約為 8.8 億歐元，SG&A 預計約為 2.65 億歐元。較高的研髮指導主要是由於額外的員工人數和勞動力成本的增加。較高的 SG&A 主要是由於額外的員工人數和 IT 支出。對 R&D 和 SG&A 也有一些小的負面外匯影響。我們預計 2022 年的年化有效稅率預計在 15% 左右。

In Q3, ASML paid a quarterly interim dividend of EUR 1.37 per ordinary share. The second quarterly interim dividend will be EUR 1.37 per ordinary share and will be made payable on November 14, 2022.

在第三季度，ASML 支付了每股普通股 1.37 歐元的季度中期股息。第二季度中期股息為每股普通股 1.37 歐元，將於 2022 年 11 月 14 日支付。

In Q3 2022, we repurchased around 2.1 million shares for a total amount of around EUR 1 billion. We have now completed our 2021-2023 share buyback program. On November 11, 2022, we will hold our Investor Day where we will provide an update on our long-term business plan, including a new share buyback program.

2022 年第三季度，我們回購了約 210 萬股股票，總金額約為 10 億歐元。我們現在已經完成了 2021-2023 年的股票回購計劃。 2022 年 11 月 11 日，我們將舉行投資者日，屆時我們將更新我們的長期業務計劃，包括新的股票回購計劃。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter.

有了這個，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, revenue and profitability for the quarter came in above guidance. We expect sales in the fourth quarter to be higher as we continue to work through supply chain issues and reduce cycle times. Relative to last quarter, we now expect stronger revenue growth for the year with a full year 2022 sales of EUR 21.1 billion that are using the midpoint of the Q4 guidance. This includes a higher EUV system revenue of around EUR 6.8 billion as well as higher rates of base revenue. And due to fast shipments, we also expect delayed revenue of around EUR 2.2 billion into 2023.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的那樣，本季度的收入和盈利能力高於預期。我們預計第四季度的銷售額會更高，因為我們將繼續解決供應鏈問題並縮短週期時間。與上一季度相比，我們現在預計今年的收入增長將更加強勁，2022 年全年銷售額為 211 億歐元，使用的是第四季度指引的中點。這包括較高的 EUV 系統收入（約 68 億歐元）以及較高的基礎收入率。由於出貨快，我們還預計到 2023 年的延遲收入約為 22 億歐元。

The total business volume for 2022 is basically unchanged from the start of the year.

2022年業務總量與年初基本持平。

Looking at the current market environment, there's clearly a lot of uncertainty due to a number of global macro concerns regarding inflation, consumer confidence and real chance of a recession. As we have shown in the past, in such an environment, we need to maintain flexibility in our supply chain, in our workforce and in our manufacturing capability. You would also expect an impact on customer confidence around their CapEx spending. And in fact, we do see some customers running at lower tool utilization levels and revising their CapEx plans for next year.

縱觀當前的市場環境，由於全球宏觀方面對通脹、消費者信心和真正衰退的可能性的擔憂，顯然存在很多不確定性。正如我們過去所表明的那樣，在這樣的環境中，我們需要保持供應鏈、勞動力和製造能力的靈活性。您還期望客戶對資本支出支出的信心會受到影響。事實上，我們確實看到一些客戶在較低的工具利用率水平上運行，並修改了明年的資本支出計劃。

Now while some customers are now adjusting the desired timing of their demand, the vast majority of our customers is still requesting shipments of the litho systems as soon as possible. This is clearly driven by the strategic nature of these little investments in support of technology transitions, capacity additions, which require time for wafer output to materialize as well as government's global investments in pursuit of technology sovereignty. And as a matter of fact, our 2023 shipment demand is still significantly above our build and shipment capacity for next year. And this is supported by the record bookings this quarter of EUR 8.9 billion and our largest backlog ever of over EUR 38 billion. Almost 85% of this backlog is for EUV and immersion, which is used for advanced nodes and related wafer capacity expansions.

現在，雖然一些客戶正在調整他們的需求時間，但我們的絕大多數客戶仍在要求盡快發貨光刻系統。這顯然是由這些支持技術轉型、產能增加的小額投資的戰略性質所推動的，這需要時間來實現晶圓產量，以及政府為追求技術主權而進行的全球投資。事實上，我們 2023 年的出貨需求仍遠高於我們明年的建造和出貨能力。這得益於本季度 89 億歐元的創紀錄預訂量和我們有史以來最大的超過 380 億歐元的積壓訂單。幾乎 85% 的積壓用於 EUV 和沈浸式，用於高級節點和相關的晶圓產能擴展。

With regard to our supply chain, we need to continue to manage risks. But over the past quarter, we see the predictability of the move rates in the supply chain improving. As a result, we now foresee a further improvement in our output capability in Q4. Looking at the net sales in the quarter, plus deferred revenue from fast shipments, you see increase in shipment value over the year, starting with EUR 4.9 billion in Q1 to EUR 5.7 billion in Q2, then EUR 6 billion in Q3, and we expect around EUR 6.4 billion in Q4. So building on this progress, we feel we are well positioned to further increase our capacity next year.

關於我們的供應鏈，我們需要繼續管理風險。但在過去一個季度，我們看到供應鏈中移動速度的可預測性有所改善。因此，我們現在預計第四季度的輸出能力將進一步提高。看看本季度的淨銷售額，加上快速出貨帶來的遞延收入，你會看到出貨價值同比增長，從第一季度的 49 億歐元到第二季度的 57 億歐元，然後是第三季度的 60 億歐元，我們預計第四季度約為 64 億歐元。因此，在這一進展的基礎上，我們認為我們有能力在明年進一步提高我們的產能。

Now looking to next year and bearing in mind the current environment, it's too early to provide specific guidance. With demand expected to remain significantly above supply and based on discussions with our customers, we're planning to increase our system output next year. So assuming we will have addressed the supply chain issues in the coming quarter, we're planning to ship over 60 EUV systems and over 375 (inaudible) systems in 2023 with around 25% of the DPV systems being emerging.

現在展望明年並考慮到當前的環境，現在提供具體指導還為時過早。由於需求預計將大大高於供應，並且根據與客戶的討論，我們計劃明年增加我們的系統產量。因此，假設我們將在下一季度解決供應鏈問題，我們計劃在 2023 年交付超過 60 個 EUV 系統和超過 375 個（聽不清）系統，其中大約 25% 的 DPV 系統正在出現。

Regarding gross margin, as Roger mentioned, we expect to approach 50% this year. And as discussed last quarter, we are in discussions with customers to share the extraordinary inflationary costs from freight, labor as well as system components. These discussions are progressing. And in general, customers understand our request to share this extraordinary cost increase. And as such, we expect to receive a reasonable level of inflation compensation over the course of next year. Assuming successful progress on this item based on current macroeconomic conditions and inflation levels and considering that next year, we will likely have less gross margin impact from fast shipments than in 2022. We expect gross margin to improve next year. We will continue to make the required investments as we need to ramp our capacity in anticipation of leading to long-term growth of our industry. And clearly, these investments might put some pressure on the gross margin next year, but are inevitable if we want to maintain the longer-term growth profile of the company.

關於毛利率，正如羅傑所說，我們預計今年將接近 50%。正如上個季度所討論的那樣，我們正在與客戶討論分擔運費、勞動力和系統組件帶來的異常通脹成本。這些討論正在取得進展。總的來說，客戶理解我們分擔這一非同尋常的成本增長的要求。因此，我們預計明年將獲得合理水平的通脹補償。假設根據當前的宏觀經濟狀況和通貨膨脹水平，這一項目取得成功，並考慮到明年，快速出貨對毛利率的影響可能會小於 2022 年。我們預計明年毛利率會有所改善。我們將繼續進行必要的投資，因為我們需要提高產能，以期實現行業的長期增長。顯然，這些投資可能會給明年的毛利率帶來一些壓力，但如果我們想保持公司的長期增長態勢，這些投資是不可避免的。

And that said, we do see a clear gradual progress from today towards our longer-term gross margin ambition of 54% to 56% by 2025. As I said before, longer term, expanding application space for semiconductor and secular trends are driving structural demand, and this is why we're actively adding capacity and are planning to further increase our EUV and DPV shipments in future years to meet customer demand.

話雖如此，我們確實看到了從今天到 2025 年從 54% 到 56% 的長期毛利率目標的明顯逐步進展。正如我之前所說，從長期來看，半導體應用空間的擴大和長期趨勢正在推動結構性需求，這就是我們積極增加產能併計劃在未來幾年進一步增加 EUV 和 DPV 出貨量以滿足客戶需求的原因。

As announced earlier today, we have come over a way all to the Board of Management as our strategic sourcing and procurement officer underscores the significance of working with our supply chain to further drive future capacity growth. And regarding our capacity for 2025 and beyond, we're actively working with our supply chain to achieve the earlier communicated targets of 90 units for 0.33 of low NA EUV and 600 units for DPV along with a medium-term target of Brent units for 0.55 High-NA EUV.

正如今天早些時候宣布的那樣，由於我們的戰略採購和採購官強調了與我們的供應鏈合作以進一步推動未來產能增長的重要性，我們已經向管理委員會提出了所有建議。關於我們 2025 年及以後的產能，我們正在積極與我們的供應鏈合作，以實現早先傳達的目標，即 0.33 低 NA EUV 的 90 個單位和 DPV 的 600 個單位以及布倫特單位 0.55 的中期目標高數值孔徑 EUV。

Next month, at our Investor Day on November 11, we will provide updates on how we see the changes in the end market growth, driving increased demand for our litho systems with -- what this means for our capacity plans as well as the impact on our longer-term financial scenarios for 2025 and 2030.

下個月，在 11 月 11 日的投資者日，我們將提供最新信息，說明我們如何看待終端市場增長的變化，推動對我們的光刻系統的需求增加——這對我們的產能計劃意味著什麼以及對我們對 2025 年和 2030 年的長期財務情景。

Finally, with regards to the announcement earlier this month from the U.S. government around export control restrictions, we have performed our initial assessment and expect a direct impact on ASML's overall shipment plan for 2023 to be limited. However, there could be an indirect impact due to the inability of other equipment suppliers to shift their systems. Our current expectation of such an indirect impact will be around 5% of our backlog. This percentage is based on the share in our backlog of purchase orders from Chinese fabs that in our current assessment, are seen as meeting the technology criteria as indicated in the updated U.S. export control restrictions. We will continue to refine our assessments as the situation evolves. While ASML is, of course, fully committed to comply with all applicable regulations, the new regulations do not directly change U.S. export controls on the property equipment.

最後，關於本月早些時候美國政府關於出口管制限制的公告，我們已經進行了初步評估，預計對 ASML 2023 年整體出貨計劃的直接影響有限。但是，由於其他設備供應商無法轉移其係統，可能會產生間接影響。我們目前對這種間接影響的預期將占我們積壓工作的 5% 左右。這個百分比是基於我們在中國晶圓廠積壓的採購訂單中的份額，在我們目前的評估中，這些訂單被視為符合更新的美國出口管制限制中所示的技術標準。隨著形勢的發展，我們將繼續完善我們的評估。當然，ASML 完全致力於遵守所有適用法規，但新法規不會直接改變美國對物業設備的出口管制。

As a European-based company with limited U.S. technology in our systems, ASML can continue to ship all non-EUV lithography shipments to China out of the Netherlands. Additionally, we can ship most U.S. origin spare parts to most customers in China that are working on mature nodes without the U.S. export license. The new export control rules are directed at advanced nodes. While our business in China is predominantly directed at mature nodes.

作為一家在我們的系統中使用有限美國技術的歐洲公司，ASML 可以繼續將所有非 EUV 光刻機貨物從荷蘭運送到中國。此外，我們可以將大部分原產於美國的備件運送給大多數在沒有美國出口許可證的情況下在成熟節點上工作的中國客戶。新出口管制規則針對高級節點。而我們在中國的業務主要針對成熟節點。

Lastly, if for export control related reasons, we cannot ship to more advanced fabs in China, we have more than sufficient demand for these systems elsewhere globally as demand continues to exceed supply.

最後，如果由於出口管制相關的原因，我們無法向中國更先進的晶圓廠發貨，由於需求繼續超過供應，我們對全球其他地方的這些系統有足夠的需求。

In summary, while in the current environment, there's a lot of uncertainty due to macro concerns, our customers' demand for our products continues to exceed supply. We're working to increase our capacity next year with a plan to further increase this by 2025. As communicated earlier this year, since we remain fully confident in the opportunity this provides for our future growth. We plan to update you all on this during our Investor Day on November 11, and we certainly hope to see you there.

綜上所述，雖然在當前環境下，由於宏觀擔憂存在很多不確定性，但客戶對我們產品的需求繼續超過供應。我們正在努力增加明年的產能，併計劃到 2025 年進一步增加產能。正如今年早些時候所傳達的，因為我們仍然對這為我們未來增長提供的機會充滿信心。我們計劃在 11 月 11 日的投資者日期間向大家介紹這方面的最新情況，我們當然希望在那裡見到您。

And with that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. Beforehand, I would like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-up, if necessary. This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible. Now operator, we have -- can we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

謝謝你，羅杰和彼得。接線員將立即指導您問答環節的協議。在此之前，我想請您將自己限制在一個問題上，並在必要時進行一次簡短的跟進。這將使我們能夠接觸到盡可能多的呼叫者。現在接線員，我們有 - 我們可以給您最後的指示，然後是第一個問題，好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of FX Bouvignies of UBS.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 UBS 的 FX Bouvignies 行。

I have one on 2023 outlook and especially for deep UV, your 375 deep UV tools target for next year. If we assume that more than 40%, maybe 50% of deep UV revenues is from Memory, can you help us reconcile your guidance and what your customers are seeing, for example, with maybe the wafer fab equipment Memory CapEx down more than 40% into next year. Just trying to think about the litho intensity excluding EUV. And I mean, could it be driven by inventory build or anything more fundamental that would suggest deep UV especially with such weight on Memory being resilient despite what your customers are saying? Just trying to reconcile that number would be helpful.

我有一個關於 2023 年的展望，特別是對於深紫外線，你的 375 深紫外線工具是明年的目標。如果我們假設超過 40%，也許 50% 的深紫外收入來自內存，您能否幫助我們協調您的指導和您的客戶所看到的，例如，晶圓廠設備內存資本支出可能下降超過 40%進入明年。只是想考慮不包括 EUV 的光刻強度。我的意思是，它是否是由庫存構建或任何更基本的因素驅動的，這表明深紫外線，尤其是在內存如此重的情況下，儘管您的客戶在說什麼，但仍具有彈性？只是試圖調和這個數字會有所幫助。

Yes. Xavier, thank you. When you look at the backlog of EUR 38 billion, I mean, about 1/4 of this is Memory and about 75% is for our Logic customers. That backlog is based on what our customers are currently thinking about what they need in terms of lithography investments for their 2023 capacity additions, which you need to remember is not only -- mainstream capacity is also for advanced technology nodes.

是的。澤維爾，謝謝。當您查看 380 億歐元的積壓訂單時，我的意思是，其中約 1/4 用於內存，約 75% 用於我們的邏輯客戶。該積壓是基於我們的客戶目前在考慮他們在 2023 年增加產能時需要的光刻投資需求，您需要記住的不僅是——主流產能也適用於先進技術節點。

Now having said that, some of our customers and that would not exclude Memory customers that indeed look at their CapEx guidance for next year and have taken it down. But those same customers and the same breadth tell us, listen, we need those machines, and these are the machines that we need for 2023 because they are strategic, the long-term nature. And if you ship me in 2023, it will only be 2024 output, has to do with a long lead time and6 character of our systems. So these are strategic tools. And we've never -- and we've said it before, I think I said it over the last more than 20 years, must have been over 100 times, we never look at WFE as an indicator because it is a lagging indicator. Customers will do what they need to do. And what we really focus on is a discussion with our customers on their strategic road map and the strategic expansion of capacity. And that drives currently the order intake. So this is where we are. I fully understand that, that could mean that in a particular year because of these particular reasons, we are in quite a particular environment that the litho intensity numbers might spike up like if we're coming out of a downturn, that it will come down when we go into a upturn. These things are just relative percentages that yes, in any given year might be different. But we look at the long-term investment profile of our customers where we have very close contact. So this is what they tell us. And when they come with an order, we're in a business where we actually accept orders. So I think it is -- it could be for 2023, a bit of an anomaly, if you look at that life percentage. Indeed, at the end of 2023, it turned out that WFE came down as much as you currently think.

話雖如此，我們的一些客戶並不會排除內存客戶，他們確實查看了明年的資本支出指導並已將其取消。但同樣的客戶和同樣的廣度告訴我們，聽著，我們需要這些機器，而這些正是我們在 2023 年需要的機器，因為它們具有戰略性和長期性。如果你在 2023 年給我發貨，它只會是 2024 年的輸出，這與我們系統的較長交貨時間和 6 特性有關。所以這些都是戰略工具。而且我們從來沒有 - 我們以前說過，我想我在過去 20 多年裡說過，肯定已經超過 100 次了，我們從不將 WFE 視為一個指標，因為它是一個滯後指標。客戶會做他們需要做的事情。我們真正關注的是與客戶討論他們的戰略路線圖和產能的戰略擴張。這推動了目前的訂單量。所以這就是我們所在的地方。我完全理解，這可能意味著在特定年份，由於這些特殊原因，我們處於非常特殊的環境中，光刻強度數字可能會飆升，就像我們走出低迷時期一樣，它會下降當我們進入好轉狀態時。這些東西只是相對百分比，是的，在任何給定的年份都可能不同。但我們會關注與我們有非常密切聯繫的客戶的長期投資概況。這就是他們告訴我們的。當他們有訂單時，我們的業務實際上是接受訂單。所以我認為是——如果你看一下這個生命百分比，它可能是 2023 年，有點反常。事實上，在 2023 年底，事實證明 WFE 的跌幅與您目前想像的一樣多。

And FX, maybe one comment. I think your function that more than 40% of deep UV comes from Memory, I think that's not correct. If you look at our backlog, it is more or less in line with the overall representation of the backlog. So the 1/4, 3/4 representation of the backlog also holds for deep UV.

和 FX，也許是一條評論。我認為您認為超過 40% 的深紫外線來自內存的功能，我認為這是不正確的。如果你看我們的積壓，它或多或少符合積壓的整體表現。因此，積壓的 1/4、3/4 表示也適用於深紫外線。

You mean on revenues or -- because I was talking revenues?

你是說收入還是——因為我說的是收入？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Yes. That's right.

是的。這是正確的。

Okay. And I do have a quick follow-up is on installed base management. I mean that has been a bit stronger. I mean, this quarter, you mentioned some upgrades. Now if we look about a bit 2023 and imagine that the industry has lower utilization due to lower demand, should we then expect your installed base management to perform better in this environment as you have more downtime machines and maybe run above your midterm target of 11% in this kind of environment?

好的。我確實有一個關於安裝基礎管理的快速跟進。我的意思是，這已經有點強了。我的意思是，本季度，您提到了一些升級。現在，如果我們看一下 2023 年，並想像由於需求下降，該行業的利用率較低，那麼我們是否應該期望您的安裝基礎管理在這種環境中表現更好，因為您有更多的停機機器並且可能運行在 11 台的中期目標之上% 在這種環境下？

Yes, that could be. But also, again, in the -- normally, what you see in an upturn is that, to your point, there is no available time to do upgrades. And in the downturn, there is available time. But then the upgrades that have to do with productivity enhancements of course, are not that needed, but others which basically have to do with the lithography requirements, the patterning requirements might be. So yes, that could be, but I think it's too early to tell right now. As you have probably seen over the last quarters and the last couple of years, the in-store base management business is a relatively short-term business. So customers can take those decisions on relatively short term, and we can actually implement those subjects also relatively short term. So we'll have to see. There's always some opportunity in a downturn like situation, but that's clear.

是的，可能是這樣。但同樣，在 - 通常情況下，您在好轉中看到的是，就您而言，沒有可用的時間進行升級。而在低迷時期，還有可用的時間。但是，與提高生產力有關的升級當然不是那麼需要，但其他基本上與光刻要求有關的升級，可能是圖案化要求。所以是的，這可能是，但我認為現在說還為時過早。正如您在過去幾個季度和過去幾年中可能看到的那樣，店內基礎管理業務是一項相對短期的業務。所以客戶可以在相對較短的時間內做出這些決定，我們實際上也可以在相對較短的時間內實施這些主題。所以我們得看看。在類似低迷的情況下總有一些機會，但這很明顯。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi at Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

I wanted to follow up on the question around 2023 outlook. I guess I wanted to understand, it sounds like, obviously, some of your customers are maybe changing some of their delivery schedules. And just given that you guys have the longest lead time for tools even in the DUV space right now, do you worry about this maybe creating some sort of kind of air pocket in demand when you look into 2024?

我想跟進有關 2023 年展望的問題。我想我想明白，聽起來，很明顯，你的一些客戶可能正在改變他們的一些交貨時間表。鑑於你們現在即使在 DUV 領域也擁有最長的工具交付時間，您是否擔心這可能會在您展望 2024 年時產生某種需求的氣袋？

No, that's a reasonable question, but the answer is we have no clue because nobody knows 2024, I mean we're starting to understand 2023. And for us, 2023. On the demand side, we are more or less protected, you could say, because there's still such a big gap between the demand side and what we can make. So there's still a significant gap between our demand profile for 2023, which, as we said, really has come down somewhat. But it's all minor as compared to the gap that still exists between the current demand and our outlook capability. So I don't know about the demand profile for 2024. But what I do know is that we're undershipping still 2023 and all that means what 2024, I have no clue.

不，這是一個合理的問題，但答案是我們不知道，因為沒有人知道 2024，我的意思是我們開始了解 2023。對我們來說，2023。在需求方面，我們或多或少受到保護，你可以說，因為需求端和我們能做的之間還有很大的差距。因此，我們對 2023 年的需求狀況仍然存在很大差距，正如我們所說，確實有所下降。但與當前需求與我們的展望能力之間仍然存在的差距相比，這一切都微不足道。所以我不知道 2024 年的需求情況。但我所知道的是，我們仍然在 2023 年供不應求，而這一切意味著 2024 年的情況，我不知道。

I think, Joe, the way to also look at that, and I fully agree with what Peter said. But also the way to look at that is we believe that the over 60 and the over 375 that we've indicated before, would be a normal trajectory towards our objectives on 2025. So I guess your question of an air pocket is only relevant to the extent that you're really trying to get a view on are we entering into a recession territory? And are we entering to a very long and very deep recession. I mean that's in essence what you're asking. And this might not be the right -- still have that question.

我認為，喬，也可以這樣看待這一點，我完全同意彼得所說的話。但看待這一點的方式是，我們相信我們之前指出的超過 60 和超過 375 將是我們實現 2025 年目標的正常軌跡。所以我猜你關於氣袋的問題只與您真正想要了解我們是否正在進入衰退領域的程度？我們是否正在進入一場非常漫長和非常嚴重的衰退。我的意思是這本質上就是你要問的。這可能不是正確的 - 仍然有這個問題。

That was my point. My point is, what do we know about 2024. I mean -- but for longer term, I have to also realize that longer term, when there is very little doubt, I think we're fully confident in the growth of this industry. I think many of our customers with healthy balance sheets have the same confidence, which actually we are the largest customer. We have those in-depth discussions. And some of them either went public with saying we don't spend a lot of CapEx because we need that capacity. There's not going to be capacity that needs to be HVM, high volume available by the end of 2023 going into 2024. It will be 2025, 2026. So it's longer term. And this is why these investments are of a strategic nature, and we get -- continuously get the confirmation from our customer base, which includes our largest customers that spent most of the CapEx money that they will continue.

那是我的觀點。我的觀點是，我們對 2024 年了解多少。我的意思是——但從長遠來看，我還必須意識到，從長遠來看，毫無疑問，我認為我們對這個行業的發展充滿信心。我認為我們的許多資產負債表健康的客戶都有同樣的信心，實際上我們是最大的客戶。我們進行了深入的討論。他們中的一些人要么公開表示我們不會花費大量資本支出，因為我們需要這種能力。不會有需要 HVM 的容量，到 2023 年底到 2024 年將有大量可用。這將是 2025 年、2026 年。所以它是長期的。這就是為什麼這些投資具有戰略性質，我們得到 - 不斷得到我們客戶群的確認，其中包括我們最大的客戶，他們花費了大部分資本支出，他們將繼續。

Got it. That's all -- I can appreciate it. 2024 is quite a long way away. Just as a quick follow-up and clarification. The comments that you made around customers looking to change delivery schedules and some declines and maybe tool utilization. Is that strictly on the Memory side? Or are you also seeing that on the Logic side?

知道了。僅此而已-我很感激。 2024年的路還很長。就像快速跟進和澄清一樣。您對希望更改交付計劃和一些拒絕以及工具利用率的客戶發表的評論。那是嚴格在內存方面嗎？還是您在邏輯方面也看到了這一點？

Yes, I see -- we see -- if you look at the decrease of utilization, it is actually still at a level which we would -- at the end of 2021 or throughout '21, still call very healthy. So it comes off a peak that we've never seen before. So it's not that you see a steep decline. You see it leveling off. And here and there, we're increasing it, both in some Logic applications and it's in Memory applications. So it's not significant in that sense, but we do see it.

是的，我看到了——我們看到了——如果你看一下利用率的下降，它實際上仍處於我們認為的水平——在 2021 年底或整個 21 年，仍然稱之為非常健康。所以它脫離了我們以前從未見過的高峰。因此，您並沒有看到急劇下降。你看到它趨於平穩。我們在這里和那裡都在增加它，無論是在一些邏輯應用程序中還是在內存應用程序中。所以從這個意義上說，它並不重要，但我們確實看到了。

And in terms of the change in delivery schedule, of course, we're not going to be, Joe, we're not going to be customer-specific here. But I guess, if you read the newspapers about the sentiment that some of our customers are sharing that probably gives you a pretty good indication of where you might see a little bit more softness versus the others.

當然，就交付時間表的變化而言，我們不會，Joe，我們不會在這裡針對客戶。但我想，如果您閱讀有關我們的一些客戶所分享的情緒的報紙，這可能會給您一個很好的指示，即您可能會看到與其他人相比更溫和的地方。

Yes. Some of our Memory customers have actually been pretty vocal and pretty public about what they want to do with the CapEx. So the usual suspects. I mean im not going to mention names. I mean, you can discover from the media reports.

是的。我們的一些內存客戶實際上已經非常直言不諱地公開了他們想用資本支出做什麼。所以通常的嫌疑人。我的意思是我不會提及名字。我的意思是，你可以從媒體報導中發現。

Our next question comes from the line of Amit Harchandani at Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Amit Harchandani。

Amit Harchandani from Citi. As a first question, if I may go back to the topic of bookings. On our calculations over the past 4 quarters, you've reported about EUR 17 billion worth of DUV bookings -- well, the DUV metrology and inspection bookings, which even in the context of a run rate of 600 shipment per capacity -- 600 capacity by 2025 seems quite extreme. So could you help us understand who is placing these orders? What are their considerations? Is this the case of demand being pulled forward? Trying to get some confidence in what seems to be a very healthy DUV ordering pattern even in the context of the capacity that you've talked about by 2025? And I have a quick follow-up.

花旗銀行的 Amit Harchandani。作為第一個問題，我是否可以回到預訂的話題。根據我們過去 4 個季度的計算，您報告了價值約 170 億歐元的 DUV 預訂——嗯，DUV 計量和檢查預訂，即使在每個產能 600 件裝運的運行率下——600 件產能到 2025 年似乎相當極端。那麼你能幫助我們了解誰在下這些訂單嗎？他們的考慮是什麼？這是需求被拉動的情況嗎？即使在您談到的到 2025 年的產能背景下，您是否也試圖對看似非常健康的 DUV 訂購模式充滿信心？我有一個快速跟進。

Yes. That's a good question. I think you may remember that in our 2016 Capital Markets Day, and even I think in 2018, we anticipated that our deep UV shipments will go down as a result of the cannibalization of EUV. Actually, the opposite happened. It didn't go down. It grew significantly across our entire customer base. So it's a customer base that is focusing on consumer products because you're looking at the EUR 70 million that you just quoted is the historical order intake. It's consumer, it's industrial, it's automotive, it's energy transition, just the sheer application space has grown so much. And the problem that we have, unless you have that discussion with our supervisory board yesterday that nobody connected all the dots. There is not one firm on the planet that actually has the full insight into where all these chips are going and where they are being designed into.

是的。這是個好問題。我想你可能還記得，在我們的 2016 年資本市場日，甚至我認為在 2018 年，我們預計由於 EUV 的蠶食，我們的深紫外出貨量將會下降。事實上，相反的事情發生了。它沒有下降。它在我們的整個客戶群中顯著增長。因此，這是一個專注於消費品的客戶群，因為您剛才引用的 7000 萬歐元是歷史訂單量。它是消費者，它是工業，它是汽車，它是能源轉型，只是純粹的應用空間已經增長了這麼多。還有我們遇到的問題，除非您昨天與我們的監事會進行了討論，沒有人將所有點聯繫起來。地球上沒有一家公司真正全面了解所有這些芯片的去向以及它們的設計目標。

But what I do know is that the number of mask sets that are being run in Logic from, let's say, 20-nanometer upward to 28, 45, 65, 90, 0.13 micron, the number of mask sets over the last 12 years has been relatively stable running through our tools, except for the last 2 years. We see a significant increase in the number of mask sets, up to 30% to 40% being used in that technology category, which actually means that the number of applications that are using deep UV technology grow significantly double digit every year. And if you ask me, Peter, tell me exactly where it is, we don't know. The CEO of one of our largest customers said when I asked the question because you have a very significant market share, you should know.

但我所知道的是，在 Logic 中運行的掩模組數量從 20 納米向上到 28、45、65、90、0.13 微米，過去 12 年的掩模組數量已經通過我們的工具運行相對穩定，除了過去 2 年。我們看到掩模組的數量顯著增加，高達 30% 到 40% 用於該技術類別，這實際上意味著使用深紫外技術的應用數量每年顯著增長兩位數。如果你問我，彼得，告訴我它在哪裡，我們不知道。當我問這個問題時，我們最大客戶之一的首席執行官說，因為您擁有非常重要的市場份額，您應該知道。

Yet I have no clue. And this captures nobody connected to all the dots. When you look at the facts, the facts are that it is in the deep UV space, and it's the application space. And if you ask me exactly where it goes, I have to also say, I'm not -- we don't have that full clarity. But what we do know is that the number of designs in the deep UV space above 20-nanometer is significantly increasing. And that's where it goes. And this is why we do see the order intake across a broad spectrum.

然而我沒有頭緒。這捕捉到沒有人連接到所有的點。當你看事實時，事實是它在深紫外空間，它是應用空間。如果你問我確切的去向，我也不得不說，我不是——我們沒有那麼清楚。但我們所知道的是，20納米以上深紫外空間的設計數量正在顯著增加。這就是它的去處。這就是為什麼我們確實看到了廣泛的訂單接收。

Our customers that have not asked any significant CapEx for the last 10 years are in our order book now quite significantly as a group. And those are the ones that write me very mad letters that they still don't have their tools all time, as of 2 weeks ago, still get those letters. So I think that this is where blame on us, blame as the industry that we don't have that visibility, but we don't. But what we do know, there is a shortage and a significant increase in the number of designs.

我們的客戶在過去 10 年中沒有要求任何重要的資本支出，現在作為一個整體在我們的訂單中非常重要。那些給我寫了非常瘋狂的信的人，他們仍然沒有自己的工具，截至兩週前，仍然收到這些信。所以我認為這應該歸咎於我們，歸咎於我們沒有這種知名度的行業，但我們沒有。但據我們所知，設計數量存在短缺和顯著增加。

And to add a few numbers to it, Amit, in terms of trying to get an understanding where it is it go. There is no real anomaly in the composition, right? So the 25%, 75% in terms of memory versus Logic that we just talked about for the full backlog as I just mentioned, that's also what you would see in the composition of the non-EUV part of the backlog. So that's pretty consistent. So no huge inconsistency there as it being skewed towards one or the other. It's just the typical 25%, 75%.

並添加一些數字，阿米特，就試圖了解它的去向而言。構圖中沒有真正的異常，對吧？因此，正如我剛才提到的，我們剛剛談到的完整積壓的內存與邏輯的 25%、75%，這也是您在積壓的非 EUV 部分的構成中看到的。所以這是相當一致的。所以那裡沒有很大的不一致，因為它傾向於一個或另一個。這只是典型的 25%、75%。

And in terms of China, China, and if you look at the last couple of years, China typically was around 16% to 18% of our system sales. And that's also about the percentage that you would see in the backlog. So there's no real anomaly in the backlog where we say how can that be. And I think that's to support the comment that Peter makes. This goes in many, many different directions. But there is no clear anomaly in the consolation as well over whelming direction in a very well a certain application.

就中國而言，如果你看看過去幾年，中國通常占我們系統銷售額的 16% 到 18% 左右。這也是您在積壓工作中看到的百分比。所以在我們說這怎麼可能的積壓工作中並沒有真正的異常。我認為這是為了支持彼得的評論。這有很多很多不同的方向。但是在一個很好的某個應用中，在安慰和壓倒一切的方向上都沒有明顯的異常。

That's very helpful, gentlemen. And secondly, as a quick follow-up, finally, and it might be probably one for Roger. The net deferred revenue run rate in Q4 is down to just EUR 0.1 billion. Wouldn't it be logical to assume that as we look towards 2023, there should be no reason why this steps up again, but above EUR 0.1 billion? In other words, the EUR 2.2 billion that's getting deferred into 2023, would it be fair to assume a significantly smaller portion might go out from 2023 and potentially the 6.4% that you're doing in Q4 is a good basis for quarterly run rate as we look towards 2023?

這很有幫助，先生們。其次，作為一個快速跟進，最後，它可能是羅傑的一個。第四季度的淨遞延收入運行率降至僅 1 億歐元。假設當我們展望 2023 年時，沒有理由再次增加，但超過 1 億歐元，這不是合乎邏輯的嗎？換句話說，將推遲到 2023 年的 22 億歐元，是否可以公平地假設從 2023 年開始可能會減少一小部分，並且您在第四季度所做的 6.4% 可能是季度運行率的良好基礎，因為我們期待 2023 年？

Yes. I think, Amit, clearly, the first quarter where the quarters were most of the fast shipment effect was there. That's clearly the case. And now indeed, you see that it starts to normalize and you already saw it in Q3, now you see it in Q4. And our expectation for Q4, you see that the normalization effect of fast shipments starts to trend down. And in essence, if you stabilize your output at a certain stage, you would expect that what you get into the quarter is also about what you see go out of the quarter. So that's the normalization at a certain point you will see. So -- you know that we're having discussions on -- is there another way to recognize revenue here. I mean we've been having those discussions. And we told you as soon as we have that and as soon as we see potential to start recognizing revenue, again, upon shipment, of course, we will let you know. So we're looking into that. But assuming that nothing is going to change, then in all likelihood, '23 should be more or less neutralized for the effect of a shipment. So what '23 is sort of what you expect to also go out of '23 in terms of fast shipments.

是的。我認為，阿米特，很明顯，第一季度的快速出貨效應最明顯。情況顯然如此。現在確實，你看到它開始正常化，你已經在第三季度看到它，現在你在第四季度看到它。而我們對第四季度的預期，你會看到快速出貨的常態化效應開始趨於下降。本質上，如果你在某個階段穩定你的產出，你會期望你在本季度獲得的結果也與你在本季度看到的結果有關。這就是你將看到的某個時刻的標準化。所以 - 你知道我們正在討論 - 這裡是否有另一種確認收入的方法。我的意思是我們一直在進行這些討論。我們一有機會就告訴你，一旦我們看到有可能開始確認收入，當然，在發貨時，我們會通知你。所以我們正在調查。但是假設什麼都不會改變，那麼很可能，'23 應該或多或少地被抵消，因為裝運的影響。因此，就快速發貨而言，您期望在 23 年之後也會出現 23 年的情況。

And our next question is from the line of Alexander Duval at Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alexander Duval。

You talked about your aim to help counteract inflationary pressure through discussions with customers given presumably the mechanism for doing that is to adjust pricing based on delivering greater value in the form of higher prices per chip, how confident are you in your ability to do that given the potentially softer demand environment in '23? And implicitly an area of scope for perhaps for less robust prices per device? And then I've got a quick follow-up.

您談到您的目標是通過與客戶的討論來幫助抵消通脹壓力23 年潛在疲軟的需求環境？並且隱含的範圍可能會降低每台設備的價格？然後我有一個快速跟進。

Yes. You're talking about the inflation correction. Because you're a bit soft in -- but you're talking about the inflation correction towards customers, yes?

是的。你說的是通脹修正。因為你有點軟——但你在談論對客戶的通貨膨脹修正，是嗎？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Okay. Yes. I think the softer environment for 2022, I think we were clear the demand we currently have is significantly higher than our shipment capacity. The issue that we are, of course, having is that -- when you look at the backlog, the great thing about it is a great backlog is that it's a great backlog. Well, the bad thing about the great backlog is that you have science yield and deliver purchase orders with prices in there. So that means that you have to go back to the customer and listen there are extraordinary circumstances with inflation percentages in some regions of the world that are significant over double digit that that's such an extraordinary circumstance where you really need to sit together and say, "Hey, what's fair. And yes, value pricing, that's a good point. But also where you see in certain areas of the semiconductor industry that wafer price is also going up because there's also value. So it's just a matter of where can you -- how can you sit together look at the combined business and about the fact that we are mutually dependent and say, what's fair. And this is where we are. And I think we will come up with a reasonable solution next year.

好的。是的。我認為 2022 年的疲軟環境，我認為我們很清楚我們目前的需求明顯高於我們的出貨量。當然，我們面臨的問題是——當您查看積壓工作時，關於它的偉大之處在於它是一個偉大的積壓工作。好吧，關於大量積壓的壞處是你有科學產量並交付帶有價格的採購訂單。所以這意味著你必須回到客戶那裡，傾聽世界上某些地區通貨膨脹率超過兩位數的特殊情況，這是一個非常特殊的情況，你真的需要坐在一起說，“嘿，什麼是公平的。是的，價值定價，這是一個很好的觀點。而且你在半導體行業的某些領域看到晶圓價格也在上漲，因為還有價值。所以這只是你可以在哪裡 - - 你怎麼能坐在一起看看合併後的業務，看看我們相互依賴的事實，說什麼是公平的。這就是我們所處的位置。我認為明年我們會提出一個合理的解決方案。

And just as a quick follow-up. You referenced again, your supplier day and reiterated you aim to put in place the 90 EV systems and 600 DV systems capacity beyond '25. Can you just give a bit more color on how the discussions with customers are proceeding and your sort of confidence level that the supply chain will be able to proceed in order to deliver that kind of level of production?

就像快速跟進一樣。您再次提到了您的供應商日，並重申您的目標是在 25 年之後將 90 個 EV 系統和 600 個 DV 系統容量落實到位。您能否就與客戶的討論如何進行以及您對供應鏈能夠繼續進行以提供這種水平的生產的信心水平多說一點？

Yes. That's a good question. We are seeing as a gradually a bit more stability and the number of supply issues that we have where we really need to put massive management attention on is actually shrinking in number of suppliers with significant management attention and action from ASML side at those suppliers, we feel that we have a clear road map towards better performance in the year 2023. I think it's our internal target to basically have by the end of Q1 of next year. We want to put all hires in the shadow of Carl ZEISS. ZEISS is our land supplier, optic supplier, which of our spices are knocked in the shadow of Carl Zeiss. And Carl Zeiss can deliver over 60 EUV systems and over 375 DPV systems. So this is basically the target that we have. And I think we're on our way. We have identified the key areas and with a lot of management attention in there, and our confidence has gone up.

是的。這是個好問題。我們看到逐漸變得更加穩定，我們真正需要大量管理關注的供應問題的數量實際上正在減少供應商的數量，這些供應商的管理關注和行動來自 ASML 方面，我們感覺我們有一個明確的路線圖，可以在 2023 年實現更好的表現。我認為我們的內部目標是到明年第一季度末基本實現。我們希望將所有員工置於 Carl ZEISS 的陰影之下。 ZEISS 是我們的土地供應商，光學供應商，我們的哪些香料被打在 Carl Zeiss 的陰影下。卡爾蔡司可以提供超過 60 個 EUV 系統和超過 375 個 DPV 系統。所以這基本上是我們的目標。我認為我們正在路上。我們已經確定了關鍵領域，並得到了很多管理層的關注，我們的信心也提高了。

Our next question comes from the line of Didier Scemama of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Didier Scemama。

I just wanted to ask you if you could maybe help us understand your point on the fact that your tools have got low content from the U.S. intellectual property standpoint, there is a lot of questions from investors on that point. And I've got a follow-up.

我只是想問你是否可以幫助我們理解你的觀點，即你的工具從美國知識產權的角度來看內容很低，投資者在這一點上有很多問題。我有後續行動。

Yes. I think the export control rules because of the relatively low percentage of U.S. content, the rules actually are such that because of that percentage, we can ship the lithography tools. So that's that is -- you could -- that's a predominantly European product. However, those tools need to be maintained so that there are spare parts that are at our U.S. Origin parts, and they fall under the export control rules. So for the spare parts, you need to apply export control rules and that's what we do. And that also is true for the people. So the people, U.S. citizen working on technology that is mentioned in the export control rules that's not allowed. So -- it's not so much the system shipments. It's the part chip, what those parts need when those systems need service. So this is why with the U.S. origin spare parts, you are in the realm of the export control restrictions that are affecting the more advanced factories of our customers in China.

是的。我認為出口管制規則是因為美國內容的百分比相對較低，規則實際上是這樣的，因為這個百分比，我們可以運送光刻工具。所以這就是 - 你可以 - 這是一個主要是歐洲產品。但是，這些工具需要維護，以便我們的美國原產零件有備件，並且它們屬於出口管制規則。因此，對於備件，您需要應用出口管制規則，這就是我們所做的。對人民來說也是如此。因此，從事出口管制規則中提到的技術的美國公民是不允許的。所以 - 這不是系統出貨量。它是零件芯片，當這些系統需要服務時，這些零件需要什麼。這就是為什麼對於美國原產備件，您處於出口管制限制的範圍內，這些限制正在影響我們在中國客戶的更先進的工廠。

Understood. So that's actually very interesting. So that will impact more your installed base management business than your [inidscernible] shipments? Is that fair?

明白了。所以這實際上非常有趣。那麼這會比您的 [inidscernible] 出貨量對您的安裝基礎管理業務產生更大的影響嗎？這公平嗎？

No, yes. But indirectly, as I said in my prepared remarks, we make an assessment of which fabs of customers in China are potentially affected. But that's under the assumption that our peer company colleagues come to the same conclusion. If they come to the same conclusion, we said that we see about 5% of our backlog being potentially impacted by this indirect effect because if you don't need -- you cannot get the other operation equipment, why would you need a litho tool. So it's -- that is what we mean with the indirect effect. And that, of course, has an effect. But also, if you cannot maintain the installed base that, of course, also has an effect. That's for the installed base management business, but that's relatively small. The biggest impact is on not we are shipping to our advanced customers in China because they simply don't need the machines.

不，是的。但間接地，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們評估了中國客戶的哪些晶圓廠可能受到影響。但這是在我們的同行公司同事得出相同結論的假設下。如果他們得出相同的結論，我們說我們看到大約 5% 的積壓可能會受到這種間接影響，因為如果您不需要 - 您無法獲得其他操作設備，為什麼需要光刻工具.所以，這就是我們所說的間接影響。當然，這會產生影響。而且，如果您無法維持安裝基礎，那當然也會產生影響。這是針對已安裝基礎管理業務的，但相對較小。最大的影響是我們不會向中國的高級客戶發貨，因為他們根本不需要機器。

Understood. And then maybe one clarification. So you mentioned very kindly the 5% of the backlog impacted by those restrictions indirectly if the rules apply indirectly to you effectively. Relative to the 15% to 16% of sales going into China, can you give us a sense of, a, the weight of multinational so Hynix, Samsung, Intel or whatever left of intel in China? And then b, what is mature notes or above 14-nanometer set? If you could just give us a split, is it 5 and 5 again? Or is it more skewed either way?

明白了。然後也許是一個澄清。因此，如果規則有效地間接適用於您，您非常友好地提到了受這些限制間接影響的 5% 的積壓工作。相對於 15% 到 16% 的銷售額進入中國，您能否給我們一個感覺，a，跨國公司如海力士、三星、英特爾或其他英特爾在中國留下的重量？然後b，什麼是成熟筆記或14納米以上的集合？如果你可以給我們一個拆分，是不是又是 5 和 5？還是更偏斜？

Yes. Listen, like I said, the 5% is based on our assessment that our peer colleagues, our deposition and etch and metrology qualities will come to the same conclusion as we came. So that is the assumption. But they have to do their own assessment. So this is basically what we currently think. And I think if you just go back to what we said earlier, I mean, the -- our China sales is about between 15% and 20%, let's say, average, 17%, 18% of our sales. That's the same in the backlog. Now, so -- and then if the 5% of the backlog may be impacted based on our assessment of the advanced fabs, then you can -- yes, that's about the ratio. So -- and that is, of course, DPV because we cannot ship EUV and we will not ship EUV into China. So this is what you need to look at. So limited on installed base, it's the pipe in the late 17%, 18% that we mentioned earlier.

是的。聽著，就像我說的，5% 是基於我們的評估，即我們的同行同事、我們的沉積、蝕刻和計量質量將得出與我們相同的結論。所以這是假設。但他們必須做自己的評估。所以這基本上是我們目前的想法。我想如果你回到我們之前所說的，我的意思是，我們在中國的銷售額大約在 15% 到 20% 之間，比方說，平均為我們銷售額的 17% 到 18%。在積壓中也是如此。現在，所以 - 如果根據我們對先進晶圓廠的評估，5% 的積壓可能會受到影響，那麼你可以 - 是的，這就是比率。所以——當然是DPV，因為我們不能運送EUV，我們也不會將EUV運送到中國。所以這是你需要看的。安裝基數有限，是我們前面提到的 17%、18% 後期的管道。

Operator

操作員

And our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini of SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I actually have a 2022 question. Can you help me understand the mix of backlog? How should I think about the mix by high NA versus EUV and DPV?

我實際上有一個 2022 年的問題。你能幫我理解積壓的組合嗎？我應該如何考慮高 NA 與 EUV 和 DPV 的混合？

Well, hi Mehdi, it's a bit of -- But I think from a backlog point of view, over -- just over 50% is EUV related, yes. And that is just under 50% is DPV. About 55-45, that's how you get to look at it.

好吧，嗨 Mehdi，這有點——但我認為從積壓的角度來看，超過——超過 50% 與 EUV 相關，是的。而這不到 50% 是 DPV。大約55-45，這就是你看待它的方式。

Okay. So you booked a couple of more high NA in Q3, and I'm just trying to understand how should I think about the incremental increase driven by high NA versus the other tools that relatively have a shorter life to turn backlog into shipments. .

好的。所以你在第三季度預訂了幾個更高的 NA，我只是想了解我應該如何看待高 NA 驅動的增量增長，而不是其他相對較短的生命週期來將積壓轉化為出貨量的工具。 .

Yes. Mehdi, we typically do not disclose the high NA numbers. And I think in the last call, we also explained why is because the number of customers taking High-NA tools is so small within that ecosystem, if they very quickly understand who is ordering and because that is competitively sensitive, that's the reason why we're not disclosing it. So I'm not going to answer that question. We're not giving you numbers or order value of the -- but it is a -- there is a healthy intake of loaning machines in the number there as well. That is something that I can assure you.

是的。 Mehdi，我們通常不會披露高 NA 數字。我認為在上次電話會議中，我們還解釋了原因是因為在該生態系統中使用 High-NA 工具的客戶數量如此之少，如果他們很快了解誰在訂購，並且因為這對競爭敏感，這就是為什麼我們'沒有透露它。所以我不打算回答這個問題。我們沒有給你數字或訂單價值 - 但它是 - 那裡的數量也有大量的借用機器。這是我可以向你保證的。

So when I mentioned the EUV number, it's all EUV. It's low NA and high NA together.

所以當我提到EUV編號的時候，都是EUV。它是低 NA 和高 NA 一起。

Sure. Sure. Okay. And then in terms of the capacity increase that you're undertaking. Is there a CapEx that you can offer if you already have plans to increase capacity for DUV 375, and it can eventually go up to 600 CapEx you can offer. So you can give at least modern in terms of the cash flows and how it would impact your costs?

當然。當然。好的。然後就您正在進行的容量增加而言。如果您已經計劃增加 DUV 375 的容量，您是否可以提供資本支出，並且最終可以提供高達 600 的資本支出。因此，您至少可以在現金流量方面提供現代信息，以及它將如何影響您的成本？

Yes. I think what you've seen, Mehdi, is that you have seen our typical CapEx numbers. And I think what we've told you is that for every year all the way through 2025, you might expect another EUR 500 million for that specific capacity expansion. That's the way to look at it. So on top of your regular run rate in terms of CapEx at about EUR 500 million for the years between today and 2025.

是的。 Mehdi，我認為您已經看到了我們典型的資本支出數字。而且我認為我們已經告訴您的是，從 2025 年開始，您可能會期望每年再增加 5 億歐元用於特定的產能擴張。這就是看待它的方式。因此，從今天到 2025 年，在資本支出方面，您的常規運行率約為 5 億歐元。

Our next question comes from the line of Sandeep Deshpande at JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

I have 2 questions. But firstly, actually, this is a follow-up from Amit's question. You've got this EUR 2.2 billion, which is deferred into next year. what I remember you having said before that you will have capacity to do 60 EUV tools next year. If you take that into consideration, you take that into consideration also that you will have a higher capacity of deep UV next year. I mean the revenue that you can generate if all that is going to be recognized next year much higher than where the consensus is looking for you for '23. So maybe you can help us understand the puts and takes. Did you mean that the EUR 2.2 billion that we enter '23 will still be remaining in the so-called pre-shipments or that need is pushing again into '24? Or how should we be looking at '23 in that sort of sense?

我有 2 個問題。但首先，實際上，這是 Amit 問題的後續。你已經拿到了 22 億歐元，這將推遲到明年。我記得你之前說過，明年你將有能力做 60 個 EUV 工具。如果你考慮到這一點，你也會考慮到明年你將擁有更高的深紫外線容量。我的意思是，如果明年所有這些都將得到認可，那麼你可以產生的收入遠高於共識在 23 年尋找你的地方。因此，也許您可以幫助我們了解看跌期權。您的意思是我們進入 23 年的 22 億歐元仍將保留在所謂的預裝運中，還是這種需求再次推到 24 年？或者我們應該如何看待'23'？

Yes, Sandeep, it all very much depends on what's going to happen in terms of revenue recognition. But that's -- if you operate on the assumption that nothing is going to change in revenue recognition, i.e., also for 2023, we will continue to recognize revenue upon installation first and foremost, particularly then for EUV. The thing that's prudent to assume that the amount that you're going to get into 2023, you're also going to lose out of '23 into 2024. It's only at the point in time where we're going to recognize revenue again upon shipments. That's the point in time we're going to realize this additional value. So when we talk about the 60 -- over 60 and the over 375, that's really related to the output capacity that we see for next year. So that should then, in that circumstance, be translated into revenue. And then you would get EUR 2.2 billion in and you would get sort of a similar amount out. If the revenue recognition is going to change in 2023, then you're going to get -- during 2023, then you're going to get to EUR 2.2 billion in addition to that. That's how the math would work.

是的，桑迪普，這在很大程度上取決於收入確認方面會發生什麼。但那是——如果您假設收入確認不會發生任何變化，即 2023 年，我們將繼續首先在安裝時確認收入，尤其是對於 EUV。謹慎的做法是假設您將在 2023 年獲得的金額，您也將在 23 年到 2024 年虧損。只有在我們將再次確認收入的時間點出貨量。這就是我們要實現這一附加價值的時間點。因此，當我們談論 60 - 超過 60 和超過 375 時，這真的與我們明年看到的輸出能力有關。因此，在這種情況下，應該將其轉化為收入。然後你會得到 22 億歐元，你會得到類似的數額。如果收入確認將在 2023 年發生變化，那麼您將獲得 - 在 2023 年期間，除此之外您將獲得 22 億歐元。這就是數學的工作方式。

Understood. A follow-up also is on your capacity. When we look at your immersion part of your Deep UV shipments this year, I mean, I'm just looking through '18, '22, '22. That doesn't -- I mean, despite these huge orders you've had from the beginning of the year, there doesn't seem to be any acceleration in the throughput that in terms of your shipments. Is this because of your inability to get parts, which was clearly very evident in the first half of the year? Or is this something else in terms of your capacity, what your capacity for Deep UV is?

明白了。後續行動也取決於您的能力。當我們查看您今年的深紫外線出貨量中的浸入式部分時，我的意思是，我只是在查看 18 年、22 年和 22 年。那不是——我的意思是，儘管你從年初就收到了這些巨額訂單，但就你的出貨量而言，吞吐量似乎沒有任何加速。是不是因為你拿不到零件，這在上半年就很明顯了？或者這與你的能力有關，你對深紫外線的能力是什麼？

No, no. I think it's -- the ASML system integration capacity in the Netherlands is higher. But there's nothing to integrate if you don't get the parts. So it's to the point that you just mentioned that we had a higher plan for 2022. But we were just limited by the supply chain issues, which we extensively discussed in previous quarters, which by the way, as I said earlier, we're kind of getting our hands around. So with the intention by the end of Q1 of next year, we have every supplier again in the shadow of our OpEx supplier ZEISS, which ZEISS we can support you which are 60 and 375 number.

不，不。我認為是——荷蘭的ASML系統集成能力更高。但是如果你沒有得到這些部件，就沒有什麼可以整合的。所以你剛才提到我們對 2022 年有更高的計劃。但我們只是受到供應鏈問題的限制，我們在前幾個季度廣泛討論了這些問題，順便說一下，正如我之前所說，我們是有點讓我們的手。因此，打算在明年第一季度末之前，我們讓每個供應商再次處於 OpEx 供應商蔡司的陰影之下，我們可以為您提供支持的蔡司是 60 號和 375 號。

Next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc of Societe Generale.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Aleksander Peterc。

I just have one question and one quick follow-up. So first, on the outlook for growth for Memory and Logic, you previously communicated on how these 2 will contribute to systems growth in the year. So has this changed meaningfully given the recent changes in CapEx intentions by some of your customer groups? And how would you see this developing into '23? And then the second is just a follow-up for me to understand correctly. If all goes to plan with a better offset of the inflation pressures that you currently see on your gross margins, but also in your OpEx. So assuming everything goes to plan and your gross margins to improve next year along the trajectory of trade, we should then reflect that through higher average selling prices across your systems? Is that how you should modulate it?

我只有一個問題和一個快速跟進。因此，首先，關於內存和邏輯的增長前景，您之前曾交流過這兩個將如何促進今年的系統增長。那麼，考慮到您的一些客戶群體最近資本支出意圖的變化，這種情況是否發生了有意義的變化？您如何看待這種情況發展到 23 年？然後第二個只是我正確理解的後續行動。如果一切按計劃進行，可以更好地抵消您目前在毛利率和運營支出中看到的通脹壓力。因此，假設一切都按計劃進行，並且您的毛利率在明年沿著貿易軌跡提高，那麼我們應該通過提高整個系統的平均售價來反映這一點嗎？那是你應該如何調製它嗎？

I will take the latter.

我會選擇後者。

Yes. Roger is going to take the inflation pricing question. First of all, What has changed throughout the year in terms of the demand, I think we said it before, there have been some announcements without being specific on customers. But in the Memory space, clearly, we have seen some replanning of. But like I said earlier, it's not significant, but we are seeing some readjustment of the shipment planning. And that has been gobbled up very quickly by other customers, of which, by the way, those customers that are gobbling this up are in the Logic space, but also here and there, we have many customers said, fine. Thank you very much. If I can get as a tool a bit earlier. Thank you. Thank you -- Yes, thank you very much. It's been a bit of both, but the trend is clearly what you also read in the paper that the Memory customers or the Memory shipments have given it a bit, it's not much, but a bit in favor of the Logic shipments -- for next year.

是的。羅傑將回答通脹定價問題。首先，就需求而言，全年發生了什麼變化，我想我們之前說過，有一些公告沒有具體針對客戶。但在Memory空間，顯然，我們已經看到了一些重新規劃的。但正如我之前所說，這並不重要，但我們看到出貨計劃有所調整。這很快就被其他客戶吞噬了，順便說一句，那些吞噬這個的客戶在邏輯領域，而且在這里和那裡，我們有很多客戶說，很好。非常感謝。如果我能早一點得到作為工具的話。謝謝你。謝謝——是的，非常感謝。兩者都有一點，但趨勢顯然是你在論文中讀到的，內存客戶或內存出貨量給了它一點，它不多，但有點支持邏輯出貨量——下一個年。

Particularly for next year. On the inflation side, so yes, you're right. I mean the way this would ultimately pan out discussions that we're having with customers are both on systems and on the OpEx side, so the installed base revenue that we're training. But I think it's fair to assume that most of the compensation we're seeking through the price of the system. So the impact of that would be then indeed you would see the price of the system, the ASP go up. That would be the way that we would find compensation for the inflation that we've been incurring this year next.

尤其是明年。在通貨膨脹方面，是的，你是對的。我的意思是這最終會導致我們與客戶進行討論的方式是在系統和運營支出方面，所以我們正在培訓的安裝基礎收入。但我認為可以公平地假設我們通過系統價格尋求的大部分補償。因此，這樣做的影響是，您確實會看到系統的價格，ASP 上漲。這將是我們為下一年發生的通貨膨脹尋找補償的方式。

Our next question comes from the line of Pierre Ferragu at New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

Peter, thanks a lot for saying I have no clue as a CEO on an earnings call, it's very refreshing. And I think it's good to remember that it's difficult to figure out what's going to happen next. And with that in mind, I have 2 like very, very specific clarification questions on things we've discussed a lot on the call today. The first one is in the way you've commented about 2023, where do you stand on Memory? Do you take into account the fact that your main clients on that front have announced like [WACC] spending or like CapEx reduced significantly? And so is that already part of your plan? Or is that something that you still need to see coming through because it takes time for the whole supply chain to process?

彼得，非常感謝你在財報電話會議上說我作為 CEO 一無所知，這非常令人耳目一新。我認為記住很難弄清楚接下來會發生什麼是件好事。考慮到這一點，我有 2 個非常非常具體的澄清問題，關於我們今天在電話會議上討論的很多問題。第一個是你對 2023 年的評論，你在記憶方面的立場是什麼？您是否考慮到您在這方面的主要客戶已經宣布像 [WACC] 支出或資本支出大幅減少的事實？那麼這已經是你計劃的一部分了嗎？還是因為整個供應鏈需要時間來處理，您仍然需要看到這一點？

And then my second question is more on your sales impressive $38 billion of backlog. Can you explain to us in a scenario in which things slow down fairly significantly, how do conversations about this backlog go? Can your clients like ask you to reschedule shipments to cancel orders what are they tied to, what's your common business factors to manage a situation where your clients are giving you a lot of orders. And as you say, if you take orders, that's what we would expect you to do. But then if the work changes a bit and slows down, then things have to be revisited?

然後我的第二個問題更多的是關於您的銷售額令人印象深刻的 380 億美元的積壓訂單。你能向我們解釋一下，在事情明顯放緩的情況下，關於這個積壓的對話是如何進行的？您的客戶是否可以要求您重新安排發貨以取消訂單，它們與什麼相關聯，您的常見業務因素是什麼來管理您的客戶給您大量訂單的情況。正如你所說，如果你接受命令，這就是我們希望你做的事情。但是，如果工作發生了一點變化並放慢了速度，那麼事情是否必須重新審視？

Yes, yes, yes. That a great question. First of all, for 2023, if there has been a replanning of their CapEx spend, it's already in. But like I said, if you have a significant reduction in the demand from our customers, which by the way, is not significant, but it is a reduction. But that gap between the demand and the capacity to ship is still so big then the impact on our total shipments is basically 0. But what you do see is a shift, thers is a bit of a shift between Memory and Logic for 2023. So it's in there, but it doesn't change the absolute numbers, let's say, the over 60 and over 375. It's just a different allocation.

對對對。這是一個很好的問題。首先，對於 2023 年，如果重新計劃了他們的資本支出支出，那麼它已經開始了。但是就像我說的，如果我們客戶的需求顯著減少，順便說一句，這並不重要，但是這是一個減少。但是需求和出貨能力之間的差距仍然很大，所以對我們總出貨量的影響基本上是 0。但是你看到的是一個轉變，2023 年內存和邏輯之間有點轉變。所以它在那裡，但它不會改變絕對數字，比如超過 60 和超過 375。這只是不同的分配。

And on the EUR 38 billion, how to deal with that if we really get into a deep recession. What is -- what we've always seen in deep recession that I've seen in the last 25 years or downturn, customers never cancel. They ask for a rescheduling of the shipment. And that's basically depending on their CapEx plans and on the depth of the recession, about their ability to finance it depends whether it's a few months out or to a few quarters out. that's what normally happens. So we just get at the time in which we now plan to shift the back up in a situation where you have a deep recession, then the time to shift the backlog is just going to extend, that's what's happening, yes -- that goes away.

關於 380 億歐元，如果我們真的陷入深度衰退，該如何應對。什麼是 - 我們在過去 25 年中看到的深度衰退或經濟衰退中總是看到的，客戶永遠不會取消。他們要求重新安排發貨時間。這基本上取決於他們的資本支出計劃和經濟衰退的深度，他們的融資能力取決於是幾個月還是幾個季度。這就是通常發生的事情。所以我們只是在我們現在計劃在嚴重衰退的情況下轉移備份的時間，然後轉移積壓的時間只會延長，這就是正在發生的事情，是的 - 消失了.

All right. We have time for one last question. If you're unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Now operator, may we have the last caller, please?

好的。我們有時間回答最後一個問題。如果您無法接通此電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯繫 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。現在接線員，我們可以請最後一個來電者嗎？

That comes from the line of Adithya Metuku at Credit Suisse.

這來自瑞士信貸的 Adithya Metuku。

Two questions, please. So firstly, it sounds a bit like you've been able to put together these EUV machines quicker in the field, and that's part of the reason for some of the pull-in of revenue this year. If my understanding is correct, can you give us some color on how long installation cycle times were at customer sites previously maybe in the first and the second quarters? And what are they now? And if this cycle kind of come down, does this not give you more confidence in being able to push out less into 2024 than you're pushing out into 2023? And that's my first question, and I've got a follow-up.

請教兩個問題。因此，首先，這聽起來有點像你已經能夠在現場更快地組裝這些 EUV 機器，這也是今年收入增長的部分原因。如果我的理解是正確的，您能否給我們一些關於以前可能在第一季度和第二季度在客戶現場安裝週期時間的顏色？他們現在是什麼？如果這個週期有點下降，這不是讓你更有信心在 2024 年推出比你推出到 2023 年更少的時間嗎？這是我的第一個問題，我有後續問題。

Yes. So Adi, good question. And indeed, that's the case. So the installation time is going more and more rapid, also in comparison to the beginning of the year. And to give you a bit of flavor for that. I think at the beginning of the year, we were somewhere around 14 to 15 weeks, and I think we were able to shave off around 10 days to 14 days of that number. So that's the -- that's what we've been able to do.

是的。所以阿迪，好問題。確實如此。因此，與年初相比，安裝時間越來越快。並給你一點味道。我認為在今年年初，我們大約需要 14 到 15 週，我認為我們能夠將這個數字減少 10 到 14 天左右。所以這就是 - 這就是我們能夠做到的。

Of course, there are differences. Some customers, it works more rapidly than at other there are quite some differences there. But on average, I think that's about what you're looking at. There's 2 things. One thing that it does, this is an important element also in the discussion that we had earlier on. This is an important element also in demonstrating that fast shipments are not more difficult to install than normal of the shipments, which is an important element in the revenue recognition exercise that we talked about. So there's an important factor element in ultimately trying to get to a situation where we can once again recognize revenue upon shipment. That's one thing that it does, so that's helpful.

當然，也有區別。有些客戶，它比其他客戶工作得更快，那裡有很多差異。但平均而言，我認為這與您正在查看的內容有關。有2件事。它所做的一件事是，這也是我們之前討論的一個重要元素。這也是證明快速發貨並不比正常發貨更難安裝的一個重要因素，這是我們討論的收入確認活動中的一個重要因素。因此，最終試圖達到我們可以在發貨時再次確認收入的情況有一個重要因素。這是它所做的一件事，所以這很有幫助。

Secondly, you're right. I mean this could lead to the situation where maybe what you push out of the year is less than what you get into the year, that is in a stable situation. If you grow, of course, than under normal circumstances, you would push out more. So when I said in an earlier response that I would expect about the same to go out of the year as what would come into the year. Of course, that would also assume growth. So that's the reason why, I think, net-net, with a growth situation, but then the benefit of being more economical and efficient on the [install] that kind of gets you to an expectation of a stable situation.

其次，你是對的。我的意思是，這可能會導致您今年推出的產品可能少於您進入這一年的產品，這是一種穩定的情況。如果你成長，當然，比正常情況下，你會推出更多。因此，當我在較早的回復中說，我預計今年的情況與今年的情況大致相同。當然，這也將假設增長。所以這就是為什麼，我認為，net-net 有增長的情況，但是在[安裝] 上更經濟和更高效的好處讓你對穩定的情況產生期望。

Understood. And my follow-up is on your China-based customers. Can you talk a bit about your ability and the ability of your peers to track and control which node a particular tool is used in? And is it relatively easy for you to be able to say which -- what node a particular customer is using the tools you've supplied in? The reason I ask is, they're tracking is not that easy any sort of risk that you have to stop shipping to wider nodes than you may be thinking at the moment? .

明白了。我的後續行動是針對您在中國的客戶。你能談談你的能力和你的同行跟踪和控制特定工具在哪個節點中使用的能力嗎？您是否相對容易說出特定客戶正在使用您提供的工具的哪個節點？我問的原因是，他們正在跟踪不是那麼容易的任何類型的風險，你必須停止運送到比你現在想像的更廣泛的節點？ .

Yes. I think it's a very relevant question. I mean when you talk about nodes, as wording of the technology node, which could be an 18-nanometer node or whatever node, take 18-nanometer as an example, and that is a half pitch node which basically has many half pitches. So the definition of what is exactly meant is extremely important. And I think this is exactly why the industry and the industry equipment makers are, of course, in contact with the U.S. government interpretation of this. And -- because you are right. I mean the difference. You have the nomenclature, which is used for marketing, and you have the nomenclature that is used for the real physical size. And then just to give you an indication, if you talk about the pitch, which is a line in a space and half pitch basically assumes that the width of the physical structure of the line is as big as the space. Well, trust me, there are spaces that are smaller than the physical line. And it actually means that then in marketing terms, they refer to the space and not to the physical structure. So is that all things need to be worked out. I need to be clarified with the U.S. government and with the agency that's actually doing this particular assessment. And it's going to take some time. This is why we continuously refer to our initial assessment and this need for the work and interpretation clarification.

是的。我認為這是一個非常相關的問題。我的意思是當你說節點時，作為技術節點的措辭，可以是18納米節點或任何節點，以18納米為例，那是一個半節距節點，基本上有許多半節距。因此，確切含義的定義非常重要。我認為這正是行業和行業設備製造商當然會接觸美國政府對此的解釋的原因。而且——因為你是對的。我的意思是區別。你有用於營銷的命名法，也有用於真實物理尺寸的命名法。然後只是給你一個指示，如果你談論間距，它是空間中的一條線，半間距基本上假設線的物理結構的寬度與空間一樣大。好吧，相信我，有些空間比物理線還小。這實際上意味著在營銷術語中，它們指的是空間而不是物理結構。因此，所有事情都需要解決。我需要向美國政府和實際進行此特定評估的機構澄清。這需要一些時間。這就是為什麼我們不斷參考我們的初步評估以及對工作和解釋澄清的需要。

Got it. And would you say that 5% is conservative? Or would you say that there could be upside or downside risk? .

知道了。你會說 5% 是保守的嗎？或者你會說可能存在上行或下行風險？ .

Right. It's -- I wish I actually knew. So I mean, what we really need is actually a clarification. And whether it's upside or whether it's downside, I have no clue. If I would know that, I would have already more or less having a clear direction of7 where the interpretation of the U.S. government is, which, of course, we need to figure out. Still to be seen.

正確的。這是 - 我希望我真的知道。所以我的意思是，我們真正需要的實際上是一個澄清。至於是有利還是不利，我不知道。如果我知道這一點，我已經或多或少地對美國政府的解釋在哪裡有了一個明確的方向，這當然是我們需要弄清楚的。還有待觀察。

On behalf of ASML, I would like to thank you all for joining us today. We hope you'll be able to join us at our Investor Day on November 11 of this year at Wilton, if you could format to conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

我代表 ASML，感謝大家今天加入我們。我們希望您能夠參加今年 11 月 11 日在威爾頓舉行的投資者日，如果您能安排好結束電話會議，我將不勝感激。謝謝你。

This concludes the ASML 2022 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

ASML 2022 第三季度財務業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。