艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML Q1 2022 Financial Results Call. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 ASML 2022 年第一季度財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將電話會議轉交給 Skip Miller 先生。請繼續，先生。

All right. Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2022 first quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

好的。謝謝你，接線員。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是 ASML 的首席執行官 Peter Wennink；和我們的首席財務官 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 的 2022 年第一季度業績。此電話的長度為 60 分鐘，問題將按照收到的順序進行處理。該電話也通過互聯網在 asml.com 上進行直播。本次電話會議結束後不久，我們的網站上將提供管理層的開幕致辭和電話會議的重播。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理層在本次電話會議期間發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。對於風險因素的討論，我鼓勵您查看我們網站 asml.com 上的今天新聞稿和演示文稿中包含的安全港聲明，以及 ASML 提交給證券和交易委員會。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 進行簡要介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2020 results conference call. I hope all of you and your family are still healthy and safe. And before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the first quarter 2022 as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. And Roger will start with a review of our first quarter 2022 financial performance with some added comments on the short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook. Roger, if you will?

謝謝你，跳過。歡迎大家，感謝您加入我們的 2020 年第一季度業績電話會議。我希望你們所有人和你們的家人仍然健康平安。在我們開始問答環節之前，羅杰和我想對 2022 年第一季度進行概述和一些評論，並提供我們對未來幾個季度的看法。羅傑將首先回顧我們 2022 年第一季度的財務業績，並對短期前景進行一些補充評論。我將完成介紹，並對當前的商業環境和我們未來的商業前景發表一些額外的評論。羅傑，你願意嗎？

Thank you, Peter. Welcome, everyone. I will first review the first quarter financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the second quarter of 2022.

謝謝你，彼得。歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第一季度的財務業績，然後為 2022 年第二季度提供指導。

Net sales came in at EUR 3.5 billion, which is at the high end of guidance. We shipped 9 EUV systems and recognized EUR 591 million revenue from 3 systems this quarter. Net system sales of EUR 2.3 billion, which was nicely balanced between Logic at 50% and 50% from Memory. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.2 billion, as guided. Gross margin for the quarter came in at the guidance of 49.0%.

淨銷售額為 35 億歐元，處於指導的高端。本季度我們出貨了 9 個 EUV 系統，並確認了 3 個系統的 5.91 億歐元收入。系統淨銷售額為 23 億歐元，在 Logic 的 50% 和 Memory 的 50% 之間取得了很好的平衡。根據指導，本季度安裝基礎管理的銷售額為 12 億歐元。本季度的毛利率為 49.0%。

On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 739 million, and SG&A expenses at EUR 208 million. R&D was below guidance as spend rates in the quarter was lower than planned and will move to Q2. We still expect to be around 14% of sales for the year.

在運營費用方面，研發費用為 7.39 億歐元，SG&A 費用為 2.08 億歐元。研發低於預期，因為本季度的支出率低於計劃並將移至第二季度。我們仍然預計今年銷售額的 14% 左右。

Net income in Q1 was EUR 695 million, representing 19.7% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 1.73.

第一季度的淨收入為 6.95 億歐元，占淨銷售額的 19.7%，每股收益為 1.73 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the first quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 4.7 billion.

轉向資產負債表。我們在第一季度結束時的現金、現金等價物和短期投資為 47 億歐元。

Moving to the order book. Q1 net system bookings came in at EUR 7.0 billion, including EUR 2.5 billion for 0.33 EUV NA systems and multiple EUV 0.55 NA systems, EXE:5200.

轉到訂單簿。第一季度淨系統預訂額為 70 億歐元，其中 25 億歐元用於 0.33 EUV NA 系統和多個 EUV 0.55 NA 系統，EXE:5200。

Another very strong DPV order intake of EUR 4.5 billion this quarter, reflecting the continued strong demand for advanced and mature nodes.

本季度另一個非常強勁的 DPV 訂單量為 45 億歐元，反映了對先進和成熟節點的持續強勁需求。

Total net system bookings was driven by Logic with 66% of the bookings and Memory accounting for the remaining 34%.

總淨系統預訂量由 Logic 驅動，佔預訂量的 66%，而內存佔剩餘的 34%。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the second quarter of 2022. We expect Q2 total net sales to be between EUR 5.1 billion and EUR 5.3 billion. This excludes around EUR 800 million of net delayed revenue for Q2 as a result of more fast shipments at the end of Q2 than at the end of Q1. We expect our Q2 installed base management sales to be around EUR 1.2 billion.

有了這個，我想轉向我們對 2022 年第二季度的預期。我們預計第二季度的總淨銷售額將在 51 億歐元至 53 億歐元之間。這不包括第二季度約 8 億歐元的淨延遲收入，原因是第二季度末的出貨量比第一季度末更快。我們預計第二季度安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 12 億歐元。

Gross margin for Q2 is expected to be between 49% and 50%. Relative to last quarter, we expect positive margin impact from higher volume for both EUV and DPV, offset by lower EUV ASP, DPV mix and continued cost pressure in the quarter. The expected R&D expenses for Q2 are around EUR 790 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at around EUR 220 million. In the current environment, it is also appropriate to address how we may be impacted by rising costs this year. We're not immune to rising costs. There is pressure on labor cost as the global job market for engineers is tight, and there is a competition for talent.

第二季度的毛利率預計在 49% 至 50% 之間。與上一季度相比，我們預計 EUV 和 DPV 的銷量增加會對利潤率產生積極影響，但被較低的 EUV 平均售價、DPV 組合和本季度持續的成本壓力所抵消。第二季度的預計研發費用約為 7.9 億歐元，SG&A 預計約為 2.2 億歐元。在當前環境下，解決今年成本上漲可能對我們產生的影響也是適當的。我們不能倖免於成本上升。全球工程師就業市場緊張，人才競爭激烈，勞動力成本面臨壓力。

Costs related to components in the supply chain are also increasing due to higher material costs, including additional fees to secure parts.

由於更高的材料成本，包括確保零件安全的額外費用，與供應鏈中的組件相關的成本也在增加。

Transportation costs have increased due to rising fuel costs and changing flight routes. Energy contracts and renewable energy help limit the increased energy cost impacts. We clearly see pressure on margins due to these cost increases, which we expect to translate roughly to a 1% impact on gross margin for full year 2022.

由於燃料成本上漲和航線變化，運輸成本增加。能源合同和可再生能源有助於限制增加的能源成本影響。由於這些成本增加，我們清楚地看到了利潤率壓力，我們預計這將對 2022 年全年的毛利率產生大約 1% 的影響。

We expect the second half of the year will be strong with expected gross margins of around 54%, primarily driven by higher EUV and DPV volume as well as improved margin from installed base business. In summary, we currently expect gross margin to be closer to 52% for the year.

我們預計下半年毛利率將保持強勁，預計毛利率約為 54%，主要受 EUV 和 DPV 銷量增加以及已安裝基礎業務利潤率提高的推動。總而言之，我們目前預計今年的毛利率將接近 52%。

Our estimated 2022 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 15% and 16%. In Q1 2022, ASML acquired 3.6 million shares for a total amount of around EUR 2.1 billion as part of our current program.

我們預計 2022 年的年化有效稅率預計在 15% 至 16% 之間。作為我們當前計劃的一部分，ASML 在 2022 年第一季度收購了 360 萬股，總金額約為 21 億歐元。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

有了這個，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, revenue and profitability for the quarter came in as guided with system revenue balanced between Logic and Memory. We expect a step-up in sales in Q2 as revenue from fast shipments in Q1 will be recognized. While supply chain challenges are still present, we will continue to utilize fast shipments as a means to get systems to customers as soon as possible.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的那樣，本季度的收入和盈利能力是在邏輯和內存之間平衡的系統收入的指導下得出的。我們預計第二季度的銷售額將有所增長，因為第一季度快速出貨的收入將得到確認。儘管供應鏈挑戰仍然存在，但我們將繼續利用快速發貨作為盡快將系統交付給客戶的手段。

Although the current macroeconomic environment creates uncertainty, we believe the fundamental growth drivers remain intact. We continue to see unprecedented customer demand across all market segments from both advanced and mature nodes, driving demand across our entire product portfolio. We are running at maximum capacity and expect demand to exceed supply well into next year. Our view of the full year revenue, therefore, remains unchanged with year-on-year growth of around 20% over 2021.

儘管當前的宏觀經濟環境造成了不確定性，但我們認為基本增長動力保持不變。我們繼續看到來自先進和成熟節點的所有細分市場的前所未有的客戶需求，推動了我們整個產品組合的需求。我們正以最大產能運行，預計明年需求將超過供應。因此，我們對全年收入的看法保持不變，2021 年同比增長約 20%。

As mentioned last quarter, this 20% sales growth does not include the full shipment value of systems out for this year due to a number of fast shipments, which will result in a delayed revenue into 2023. For our EUV business, we still expect to ship around 55 systems this year. And as we plan to do fast shipments on a number of these systems, including systems in Q4, we expect some revenue to be deferred to 2023. This translates to an expected system revenue of around EUR 7.8 billion this year.

如上一季度所述，由於一些快速出貨，這 20% 的銷售增長不包括今年系統的全部出貨價值，這將導致收入延遲到 2023 年。對於我們的 EUV 業務，我們仍然預計今年出貨大約 55 個系統。由於我們計劃在包括第四季度的系統在內的一些系統上進行快速發貨，我們預計部分收入將推遲到 2023 年。這意味著今年的預期系統收入約為 78 億歐元。

In our deep UV and applications business, we expect significant growth in both immersion and dry systems, as well as continued demand for metrology and inspection systems. In addition to advanced nodes, we see growing demand for deep UV systems supporting mature market segments such as analog, power and sensors. These market segments are part of the secular growth drivers in support of digital infrastructure, which includes automotive and green energy applications. We expect revenue growth of over 20% for non-EUV system revenue.

在我們的深紫外和應用業務中，我們預計浸入式和乾式系統將顯著增長，以及對計量和檢測系統的持續需求。除了先進的節點，我們看到對支持模擬、電源和傳感器等成熟細分市場的深紫外系統的需求不斷增長。這些細分市場是支持數字基礎設施（包括汽車和綠色能源應用）的長期增長動力的一部分。我們預計非 EUV 系統收入的收入增長將超過 20%。

For the Installed Base Management business, service revenue will continue to scale with the growing installed base of systems. Customers continue to look at all methods to add wafer capacity, including productivity upgrades. In these times, a very high fab utilization, some of these upgrades are hardware-intensive and require systems to be taken off-line for installation. Therefore, available system time will dictate their ability to install these types of upgrades. And as we mentioned in previous quarters, the quickest way to add wafer capacity is to install software productivity packages. These upgrades require less system downtime and have now been installed in most of our customer fabs. We currently expect 2022 installed base revenue to be up around 10% year-on-year.

對於安裝基礎管理業務，服務收入將隨著系統安裝基礎的增長而繼續擴大。客戶繼續關注增加晶圓產能的所有方法，包括生產力升級。在這些時候，晶圓廠利用率非常高，其中一些升級是硬件密集型的，並且需要使系統脫機進行安裝。因此，可用系統時間將決定他們安裝這些類型升級的能力。正如我們在前幾個季度提到的，增加晶圓產能的最快方法是安裝軟件生產力包。這些升級需要更少的系統停機時間，並且現在已經安裝在我們的大多數客戶晶圓廠中。我們目前預計 2022 年安裝基礎收入將同比增長約 10%。

Looking at the market segments in 2022. Our view on growth is similar to last quarter. We still expect Logic system revenue to be up more than 20% year-on-year and Memory system revenue to be up around 25% year-on-year.

縱觀 2022 年的細分市場。我們對增長的看法與上一季度相似。我們仍然預計邏輯系統收入同比增長 20% 以上，內存系統收入同比增長 25% 左右。

On High-NA EUV, we're making good progress. And we have currently started the integration of the first High-NA system in our new (inaudible) in Veldhoven. We received multiple orders for our EXE:5200 system in Q1. We also received additional EXE:5200 orders this month, April. With these bookings, we now have High-NA orders with 3 Logic and 2 Memory customers. The EXE:5200 is ASML's next model High-NA system and will provide the next step for lithography performance and productivity.

在 High-NA EUV 方面，我們正在取得良好進展。我們目前已經開始在 Veldhoven 的新（聽不清）中集成第一個 High-NA 系統。我們在第一季度收到了多個 EXE:5200 系統的訂單。本月，也就是 4 月，我們還收到了額外的 EXE:5200 訂單。通過這些預訂，我們現在有 3 個邏輯和 2 個內存客戶的高 NA 訂單。 EXE:5200 是 ASML 的下一代高 NA 系統，將為光刻性能和生產力提供下一步。

The global market trends that we talked about at our Investor Day last year are broadening the application space and providing secular growth drivers for future demand. The strong demand this year and beyond is reflected in the significant bookings over the past several quarters, resulting in a backlog of around EUR 29 billion is an all-time high. We expect the strong order intake to continue as demand will continue to exceed supply also going well into next year. With multiple countries pursuing technological sovereignty, we are now seeing a number of announcements from customers for new fabs in the coming years in support of this global trend. These announced investments are expected to have a positive impact on the medium-term demand. As this unprecedented demand is exceeding our capacity, ASML and its supply chain partners are planning to actively add capacity to meet future customer demand as communicated during Investor Day last year. But at that time, we talked about the current capacity ramp is expected to deliver an output capability of over 70 EUV 0.33 NA systems and around 375 DPV systems by 2025.

我們在去年的投資者日上談到的全球市場趨勢正在擴大應用空間並為未來需求提供長期增長動力。今年及以後的強勁需求反映在過去幾個季度的大量預訂中，導致積壓約 290 億歐元，創歷史新高。我們預計強勁的訂單量將持續下去，因為需求將繼續超過供應，也將持續到明年。隨著多個國家追求技術主權，我們現在看到許多客戶宣佈在未來幾年建立新的晶圓廠，以支持這一全球趨勢。這些宣布的投資預計將對中期需求產生積極影響。由於這一前所未有的需求超出了我們的產能，ASML 及其供應鏈合作夥伴正計劃積極增加產能以滿足去年投資者日期間傳達的未來客戶需求。但當時，我們談到目前的產能提升預計到 2025 年將提供超過 70 個 EUV 0.33 NA 系統和約 375 個 DPV 系統的輸出能力。

As mentioned last quarter, we see a need to further increase our output beyond this level in order to meet the stronger and longer market demand to support an industry that is expected to at least double by 2030. With the goal of adding more capacity, we're investigating the feasibility of increasing our annual capacity by 2025 to around 90 EUV 0.33 NA systems and 600 DPV systems.

如上個季度所述，我們認為有必要將產量進一步提高到這一水平以上，以滿足更強勁和更長期的市場需求，以支持預計到 2030 年至少翻一番的行業。以增加產能為目標，我們'正在研究到 2025 年將我們的年產能提高到大約 90 個 EUV 0.33 NA 系統和 600 個 DPV 系統的可行性。

For deep UV, we're planning to increase capacity for both immersion and dry, with a heavier weighting towards dry. We're also discussing with our supply chain partners to secure a capacity of around 20 EUV 0.55 High-NA systems in the medium term. Bear in mind that this translates to what we currently feel our maximum capacity goal should be and may therefore not be a final output plan. We discussed our goal recently with our supply chain partners and asked them to come back in the coming quarters with confirmation on the feasibility of our request.

對於深紫外線，我們計劃增加浸泡和乾燥的容量，並增加對乾燥的權重。我們還在與我們的供應鏈合作夥伴進行討論，以確保在中期內擁有約 20 個 EUV 0.55 High-NA 系統的容量。請記住，這意味著我們目前認為我們的最大產能目標應該是，因此可能不是最終的產出計劃。我們最近與我們的供應鏈合作夥伴討論了我們的目標，並要求他們在未來幾個季度回來確認我們請求的可行性。

Once we complete this analysis, we also expect to revisit our 2025 scenarios and growth opportunities beyond 2025. We're planning to provide an update to the capital markets in the Q4 time frame.

一旦我們完成了這項分析，我們還預計將重新審視我們的 2025 年情景和 2025 年以後的增長機會。我們計劃在第四季度的時間框架內提供資本市場的更新。

It is clearly a dynamic, challenging but also exciting period in our industry and it only increases our confidence in our long-term growth opportunity.

在我們的行業中，這顯然是一個充滿活力、充滿挑戰但也令人興奮的時期，它只會增加我們對長期增長機會的信心。

And with that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Now operator, could we have the final instructions and then the first question, please?

謝謝你，羅杰和彼得。接線員將立即指導您問答環節的協議。 （操作員說明）現在操作員，請給我們最後的說明，然後是第一個問題，好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) One moment, please, for the first question and that comes from the line of Robert Sanders at Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）請稍候，第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Robert Sanders。

Like we need to move to the next caller, operator.

就像我們需要轉到下一個呼叫者，接線員。

So the next call is -- the next caller is Didier Scemama of Bank of America.

所以下一個電話是-- 下一個電話是美國銀行的Didier Scemama。

Third one?

第三個？

Okay. So the next question will come from the line of Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo.

好的。所以下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

Looks like it's more structural.

看起來它更具結構性。

Mike, I think there's a connection issue.

邁克，我認為存在連接問題。

Just one moment, I'll just have a look into this. It does look like the line is open, but yes, that would be 3 questions in a row. That looks like it's possible that's the connection. Let me just have a moment.

等一下，我就看看這個。看起來這條線是開放的，但是是的，那將是連續 3 個問題。看起來這可能是聯繫。讓我稍等片刻。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Okay. Apologies at the latest. So I'm just going to test this. Joe from Wells Fargo, are you able to hear us and speak?

好的。最晚道歉。所以我只是要測試一下。富國銀行的喬，你能聽到我們說話嗎？

Yes. Can you hear me now?

是的。你能聽到我嗎？

Yes. We can hear you. Apologies.

是的。我們可以聽到你的聲音。道歉。

Yes. Correct. We just have to make sure perhaps we can squeeze in the other -- a few that were kicked out because of...

是的。正確的。我們只需要確保也許我們可以擠進另一個——一些因為……而被踢出去的人。

Yes. Let's cycle back on both Rob and Didier exactly.

是的。讓我們準確地回顧一下 Rob 和 Didier。

Yes. Rob and Didier. So we just have to make sure that they somehow get back in the queue.

是的。羅伯和迪迪埃。所以我們只需要確保他們以某種方式重新回到隊列中。

Yes. Okay. Go ahead, Joe.

是的。好的。繼續，喬。

Joe, please.

喬，請。

Okay. Great. So I wanted to ask a question on the capacity expansion plans, specifically on the DUV side. When I look at your prior expansion plans relative to like the high end of your 2025 model, it looks like you had been kind of putting in about a 30% higher manufacturing capacity. So with the updated capacity plans, are you looking to maybe increase that kind of softer range? Or how should we think about that?

好的。偉大的。所以我想問一個關於產能擴張計劃的問題，特別是在 DUV 方面。當我查看您之前相對於 2025 年型號的高端產品的擴張計劃時，看起來您已經將製造能力提高了約 30%。因此，通過更新的容量計劃，您是否希望增加這種更軟的範圍？或者我們應該怎麼想？

Yes. Joe, that's a good question. Basically, the number of 600 is a result of 2 things. One is, you have to remember, when we did the September Capital Markets Day, we prepared this a couple of months before. So I think you're looking at market intelligence that, as compared to last year, is about a year old. So we have -- has a bit more insights. And I think that's translated into that number. And on the other hand, we are currently looking at the demand for this year and next year, where it comes from. Looking at the customer base, which effectively means that every customer we almost ever sold a machine to is coming to us to ask for a DPV tool, which was just particularly true for dry.

是的。喬，這是個好問題。基本上，600 的數量是兩件事的結果。一個是，你必須記住，當我們舉辦 9 月的資本市場日時，我們在幾個月前就準備好了。因此，我認為您正在查看與去年相比大約一年前的市場情報。所以我們有 - 有更多的見解。我認為這已經轉化為這個數字。另一方面，我們目前正在研究今年和明年的需求，它來自哪裡。看看客戶群，這實際上意味著我們幾乎曾經向我們出售過機器的每一位客戶都來找我們要 DPV 工具，這對於乾式來說尤其如此。

So it's the current demand level plus our, let's say, insights that have progressed over the last 12 months or so. And those insights are basically across a number of lines. I would say one is the mature market upside is higher because the visibility has increased, especially from Asia. And when we look at the type of semiconductors that are in demand now and the capacity that's been installed and especially if you look at the lower end, when you talk about power ICs, you talk about sensors, optical and non-optical sensors, analog. You talk about microcontrollers. There is a demand for those type of semiconductors almost in every industrial area, which when we look at it and we look at the growth numbers and the demand, talking to our customers, it's a very wide range, just the mature market upside is really driven by a significant increase of IoT-type opportunities. Now that's one.

因此，這是當前的需求水平加上我們在過去 12 個月左右取得進展的見解。這些見解基本上是跨越多條線的。我想說一個是成熟市場的上行空間更高，因為知名度提高了，尤其是來自亞洲。當我們查看現在需要的半導體類型和已安裝的容量時，特別是如果您查看低端，當您談論電源 IC 時，您會談論傳感器、光學和非光學傳感器、模擬.你談論微控制器。幾乎在每個工業領域都有對這類半導體的需求，當我們看到它時，我們看到增長數字和需求，與我們的客戶交談，這是一個非常廣泛的範圍，只是成熟的市場上行空間真的很大受物聯網類型機會顯著增加的推動。現在是一個。

Number two is we also see the need for more silicon for the PC and high-power compute applications. It has to do with the fact that you actually see that in order to be more energy efficient, the device's clock speed, the clock frequency is decreased but actually has a significant impact on the energy usage. However, it also has an impact on the performance. So how do you compensate that by adding more transistors. Where you have more transistors, you add more silicon square millimeters. So die sizes are growing. That's what we very clearly see has also been confirmed with many customers.

第二，我們還看到 PC 和大功率計算應用需要更多的芯片。這與您實際看到的事實有關，即為了提高能效，設備的時鐘速度，時鐘頻率降低，但實際上對能源使用有重大影響。但是，它也會對性能產生影響。那麼如何通過添加更多晶體管來彌補這一點。有更多晶體管的地方，就增加了更多的矽平方毫米。所以芯片尺寸正在增長。這是我們非常清楚地看到的，也得到了許多客戶的證實。

Then we see also in non-semi litho applications, for instance, goggles and waveguides. We see an increase in the demand for lithography equipment. And then on top of that, we see the demand medium term for technological sovereignty demand, which is basically an incentive program that actually helps our leading-edge customers to build out fab capacity quicker. So I think all in all, the -- and also the -- I would say, the market visibility has increased. A very important issue, of course, that our customers are finding out, that our order lead time is one thing but the most important lead time is the capacity lead time. So our customers now sharing with us much longer capacity improvement plans, which actually extend way into, let's say, the 2024, 2025 time frame. So all that together gives the confidence that the numbers that we're talking about, which are 90 EUV numbers and the 600 deep UV numbers have actually a basis. Now a lot of the detail we would like to share with you once we get the confirmation from our supply chain partners that, that feasibility request is -- can actually be executed on. And we think that will happen in the next couple of quarters. So in Q4, it's the reason why we want to update you to a Capital Market Day, where we can give you some more details on what I just said, which basically -- I think I want to give you some details, but that then we can spend a bit more time on it.

然後我們還看到了非半光刻應用，例如護目鏡和波導。我們看到對光刻設備的需求增加。最重要的是，我們看到了技術主權需求的中期需求，這基本上是一個激勵計劃，實際上可以幫助我們的領先客戶更快地建立晶圓廠產能。所以我認為總而言之，我想說的是，市場知名度已經提高了。當然，我們的客戶發現了一個非常重要的問題，即我們的訂單提前期是一回事，但最重要的提前期是產能提前期。因此，我們的客戶現在與我們分享更長的產能改進計劃，實際上延伸到 2024 年、2025 年的時間框架。因此，所有這些加在一起使我們相信我們正在談論的數字，即 90 個 EUV 數字和 600 個深紫外線數字實際上是有依據的。現在，一旦我們得到供應鏈合作夥伴的確認，我們想與您分享很多細節，即可行性請求實際上可以執行。我們認為這將在接下來的幾個季度中發生。所以在第 4 季度，這就是為什麼我們要向您更新資本市場日的原因，在那裡我們可以為您提供我剛才所說的更多細節，基本上 - 我想我想給您一些細節，但是然後我們可以多花點時間。

And then specifically also, Joe, to your question on the buffer because you are right in the -- on the Capital Markets Day, we did have a buffer because there also we indicated that we were looking at a capacity of 375 units in DPV at that stage. And if you took our market share in the worldwide demand, then, of course, that was lower than the 375. So that's the buffer that you're referring to.

然後特別是，喬，關於你關於緩衝的問題，因為你是對的——在資本市場日，我們確實有一個緩衝，因為我們也表示我們正在尋找 375 單位的 DPV 容量那個階段。如果您在全球需求中佔據了我們的市場份額，那麼當然，這低於 375。所以這就是您所指的緩衝區。

There, I would say that's typically something that we will discuss in the Investor Day that Peter was referring to because Peter is talking about what we're looking into in terms of capacity. At the Investor Day, at the Capital Markets Day, we're obviously also going to articulate our expectations on demand. And there, I think you will see how that capacity will relate to the demand that we see for 2025. And that will then give you a bit of an indication on the buffer that we foresee for 2025.

在那裡，我想說這通常是我們將在彼得所指的投資者日討論的事情，因為彼得正在談論我們正在研究的產能。在投資者日，在資本市場日，我們顯然還將闡明我們對需求的預期。在那裡，我認為您將看到該容量將如何與我們看到的 2025 年需求相關聯。這將為您提供一些關於我們預計 2025 年的緩衝的跡象。

That's some really helpful details. Just as a quick follow-up. I was wondering if you could maybe just give us the puts and takes on the EUV ASP this quarter, what drove the upside?

這是一些非常有用的細節。就像快速跟進一樣。我想知道您是否可以在本季度給我們提供 EUV ASP 的看跌期權，是什麼推動了上漲？

Yes. It's primarily accounting, Joe, because, as you know, with VPA accounting, you get these corrections based on estimates and based on revisions of estimates that you make for the VPA.

是的。主要是會計，喬，因為如您所知，使用 VPA 會計，您會根據估計和您為 VPA 所做的估計修訂來獲得這些更正。

And of course, then if you only have 3 EUV units in sales as we had for this quarter, then, of course, that has a big impact on the ASP. But it's not -- nothing specific. It's not that all of a sudden the ASP has risen dramatically. I think in your models, I think it's still prudent to take the 160 million as the ASP for 3600 going forward.

當然，如果您像本季度一樣只有 3 台 EUV 設備的銷售量，那麼這當然會對 ASP 產生很大影響。但它不是——沒有什麼特別的。這並不是說平均售價突然大幅上漲。我認為在您的模型中，我認為將 1.6 億作為 3600 前進的 ASP 仍然是謹慎的。

And apologies for the issue earlier. We are now able to go back to the line of Robert Sanders at Deutsche Bank.

並為之前的問題道歉。我們現在可以回到德意志銀行的羅伯特桑德斯的路線。

It was just around the backlog for the EUV tools. If I just do some sort of probably simple math, it looks like your backlog for DUV only is sitting at around 500 tools or so, while you're shipping around 60 tools per quarter in DUV only. So does that mean that the waiting time for DUV tool today is more than 2 years?

這只是 EUV 工具的積壓。如果我只是做一些可能很簡單的數學運算，看起來您的 DUV 積壓訂單大約是 500 個工具左右，而您每季度僅在 DUV 中運送大約 60 個工具。那麼這是否意味著今天 DUV 工具的等待時間超過 2 年？

And related to that, as you think about how you -- your increase of DUV capacity, where would you like that sort of waiting time to go back to? Would it go back to 9 months in a perfect world? Or is there a kind of new reality where backlog will be extended for quite a while?

與此相關，當您考慮如何增加 DUV 容量時，您希望那種等待時間回到哪裡？在完美世界中，它會回到 9 個月嗎？還是有一種新的現實，積壓會延長很長一段時間？

Yes. Two good questions, Rob. One, yes, the DPV backlog is quite significant. You mentioned 500, it actually is a little bit more. But -- yes, we're shipping around 60 units. But you have to realize that while we're doing that, we are increasing our shipment capability. I mean, although we are not at the 600 units as we mentioned, we will be able to increase more deep UV shipments throughout this year and next year for the simple reason that we're basically pulling out all the stops in cycle time reduction, in process efficiency. So I think that number will go up. So it will not be stable.

是的。兩個好問題，羅布。一，是的，DPV 積壓非常重要。你提到500，實際上是多一點。但是 - 是的，我們正在運送大約 60 個單位。但是您必須意識到，在我們這樣做的同時，我們正在提高我們的運輸能力。我的意思是，雖然我們沒有像我們提到的那樣達到 600 台，但我們將能夠在今年和明年增加更多的深紫外線出貨量，原因很簡單，我們基本上會全力以赴減少週期時間，在流程效率方面。所以我認為這個數字會上升。所以不會很穩定。

Having said that, you are right. If you would come in and you want a deep UV tool now, it's going to be second half of next year because for the simple reason that the PO, the purchase order lead time is completely irrelevant now. It's the capacity lead time.

話雖如此，你是對的。如果你現在想要一個深紫外工具，那將是明年下半年，因為採購訂單的簡單原因，採購訂單提前期現在完全無關緊要。就是產能提前期。

So you need to build capacity in order to be able to get more, which ultimately means that, yes, by we think 2025, let's take another 2 years at least to build out that capacity. Then we will go back to, let's say, 9 months and less PO lead time. Yes. So this is indeed the case.

所以你需要建設能力才能獲得更多，這最終意味著，是的，到 2025 年，我們至少需要再花 2 年時間來建設這種能力。然後我們將回到 9 個月或更短的 PO 提前期。是的。所以確實是這樣。

This is also why the demand that we currently see in deep UV, but we can probably only ship at this moment in time this year, only 60% of the deep UV demand. So anything that comes on that, that's driven by our maximum capacity. And anything beyond that, indeed, is a matter of capacity lead time, not the only time.

這也是為什麼我們目前看到的深紫外線需求量很大，但我們今年大概只能在這個時間點出貨，只有深紫外線需求量的 60%。因此，發生的任何事情都是由我們的最大容量驅動的。事實上，除此之外的任何事情都是產能提前期的問題，而不是唯一的時間。

Got it. Just a quick follow-up to that. I'm assuming suppliers will want prepayments, guarantees in order to build more capacity for you guys. And they may look for higher pricing. But so should we think about pricing of individual tools going up on top of the inflation that we're seeing from the various different cost drivers just from the fact that suppliers will want some kind of guarantee from you guys that you'll take delivery?

知道了。只是對此的快速跟進。我假設供應商會想要預付款，保證為你們建立更多的能力。他們可能會尋求更高的定價。但是，我們是否應該考慮單個工具的定價會隨著我們從各種不同的成本驅動因素中看到的通貨膨脹而上漲，僅僅是因為供應商希望你們提供某種保證，即你們會收貨？

Yes. I think this is -- it's always been the case when you go to the supply base, hey, we need to add capacity. I think we have a pretty convincing story for them that this industry will grow. Like I said in the prepared remarks, we think there's a very good chance that this -- that the industry of our customers will more than double before the end of the decade. And if that's the case, we're just going to need more capacity, which they all agree with.

是的。我認為這是 - 當你去供應基地時總是如此，嘿，我們需要增加產能。我認為我們有一個非常令人信服的故事，即這個行業將會發展。就像我在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們認為在本世紀末之前，我們客戶的行業很有可能翻一番以上。如果是這樣的話，我們只是需要更多的容量，他們都同意這一點。

Now if we're going to help suppliers, and I'm not excluding that at all, it's just a matter of sometimes the financial means that a supplier might have or run into a certain financial ceiling that we might help and step in like we've done in the past, that's not a major issue.

現在，如果我們要幫助供應商，我完全不排除這一點，這只是有時供應商可能擁有或遇到一定財務上限的財務手段問題，我們可能會像我們一樣幫助並介入過去做過，這不是主要問題。

That is not to take away the risk but just to make sure that people execute faster. And I think that, that might happen. But generally, our suppliers are big enough to pay for their own CapEx. So I don't think that's going to be a major issue.

這並不是要消除風險，而是要確保人們執行得更快。我認為，這可能會發生。但總的來說，我們的供應商足夠大，足以支付他們自己的資本支出。所以我認為這不會是一個大問題。

And on pricing, I think the cost increase that we've seen are really short-term cost increases. We do value pricing. So it is not cost plus, what we are doing. Having said that, the value of the wafers coming out of our customers over time will also go up, which were just going to be a function of that cost increase. So it also means that going forward, value pricing will also lead to different prices that we will charge to our customers. I mean that's all connected, not short term, but definitely over the next 12 to 24 months when the volume purchase agreements run out, we have new volume purchase agreements that will be reflected.

在定價方面，我認為我們看到的成本增加實際上是短期的成本增加。我們做價值定價。所以我們正在做的不是成本加成。話雖如此，隨著時間的推移，我們客戶的晶圓價值也會上升，這只是成本增加的一個函數。因此，這也意味著未來，價值定價也將導致我們向客戶收取不同的價格。我的意思是這一切都是相互關聯的，不是短期的，但肯定是在未來 12 到 24 個月內，當批量採購協議用完時，我們會有新的批量採購協議得到體現。

And our next question comes from the line of Didier Scemama of Deutsche -- Bank of America, sorry.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Didier Scemama——美國銀行，對不起。

I've got 2 quick questions. First of all, maybe a question just to understand a bit better the '25 capacity plan. I know you don't like to talk about WFE, but I would like to understand what's baked in your numbers because when I just sort of reverse engineer what you've guided for, I get to WFE roughly in the $140 million to $150 million range. I just wanted to understand if that's what you're thinking about.

我有 2 個快速問題。首先，也許一個問題只是為了更好地理解 '25 容量計劃。我知道你不喜歡談論 WFE，但我想了解你的數據中包含什麼，因為當我對你所指導的內容進行逆向工程時，我得到的 WFE 大約在 1.4 億美元到 1.5 億美元之間範圍。我只是想了解你是否正在考慮這個問題。

And related to that, when we make WFE intensity numbers, assumptions, et cetera, you get to a global semiconductor demand in 2025 in the range of EUR 800 billion-plus to EUR 940 billion-plus, which I'm a believer, but that's an aggressive growth rate, especially in the context of the current macro environment and worries about researching, et cetera. So I just wanted to understand if that's the right way to think about it? And if not, why not? And I've got a quick follow-up on High-NA.

與此相關，當我們製作 WFE 強度數據、假設等時，你會發現 2025 年全球半導體需求在 8000 億歐元以上到 9400 億歐元以上，我相信這一點，但是這是一個激進的增長率，尤其是在當前宏觀環境和對研究等方面的擔憂的背景下。所以我只是想了解這是否是正確的思考方式？如果沒有，為什麼不呢？我對 High-NA 進行了快速跟進。

Well, I think there's -- a lot of what you said is the right way to think about it. But I think the only comment I would make is that you pin everything on 2025. When we basically say we want to build our debt capacity by 2025, we do this also with the intent and with the focus on what we believe is going to be a very strong secular growth for our customers. So even if you look at the latest Gartner data, actually, they are above EUR 1 billion for 2030.

嗯，我認為你所說的很多都是正確的思考方式。但我認為我唯一想說的就是你把所有事情都定在 2025 年。當我們基本上說我們想在 2025 年之前建立我們的債務能力時，我們這樣做也是有目的的，並且專注於我們認為會發生的事情為我們的客戶帶來非常強勁的長期增長。因此，即使您查看最新的 Gartner 數據，實際上，到 2030 年它們的價值也將超過 10 億歐元。

And so it -- so it is capacity that is there for the second half of the decade. It doesn't mean that if we would have that capacity by 2025 that the -- we're not saying that the semiconductor industry will gobble up all our capacity by 2025, but it will definitely do that in the second half. And this is why it's important because you add capacity, you need lead time. You need to start now because it takes a couple of years. And that might be that we don't need it in 2025. We might definitely need it in '26 or '27 or '28 to your point.

所以它 - 所以它是這個十年後半段的容量。這並不意味著如果我們在 2025 年之前擁有這樣的產能——我們並不是說半導體行業將在 2025 年之前吞噬我們所有的產能，但它肯定會在下半年做到這一點。這就是為什麼它很重要，因為您增加了產能，您需要提前期。您需要從現在開始，因為這需要幾年時間。那可能是我們在 2025 年不需要它。我們可能在 26 年或 27 年或 28 年肯定需要它。

Now -- and if you then say if you would look at the latest Gartner data, which is just above, I think it's EUR 1.1 trillion. If you look at that and you apply your historical WFE numbers, you're coming pretty close to what you just said. So it is needed. This is an investment in the growth of the company and the growth of the industry of our customers. That's what it is. And I'm not telling you what the 2025 revenue number for the semiconductor industry is going to be, but it's going to be higher. That's absolutely certain. But this is the reason why. So I think your line of reasoning is correct or you don't pin yourself onto 2025 as a year.

現在 - 如果你說如果你看一下最新的 Gartner 數據，就在上面，我認為它是 1.1 萬億歐元。如果您查看它並應用您的歷史 WFE 數字，您將非常接近您剛才所說的。所以它是必要的。這是對公司發展和客戶行業發展的投資。就是這樣。我不會告訴你 2025 年半導體行業的收入數字是多少，但它會更高。這是絕對肯定的。但這就是原因。所以我認為你的推理是正確的，或者你沒有把自己固定在 2025 年。

Very clear. Perfect. So my second question is on High-NA. So at the time of the CMD, you were sort of cautiously telling us about 5 units, give or take, 2025. Now you're saying that you're thinking about building capacity for 20 units midterm. So I take it beyond 2025. I just wondered if you could, a, give us a sense of how many units have you booked so far given the support you get from your 5 customers in the quarter? And give or take, I mean are you thinking about more than 5 units already for 2025? Or sort of what's the linearity of that 20, what's the trajectory? I mean is it really taking off in '25? Or is it taking off a little bit after?

非常清楚。完美的。所以我的第二個問題是關於 High-NA。所以在 CMD 的時候，你有點謹慎地告訴我們 2025 年有 5 個單位，給予或接受。現在你說你正在考慮在中期建設 20 個單位的產能。所以我把它放在 2025 年以後。我只是想知道，鑑於您在本季度從 5 個客戶那裡獲得的支持，您是否可以讓我們了解到目前為止您預訂了多少單位？給予或接受，我的意思是你是否已經在考慮 2025 年超過 5 個單位？或者那 20 的線性度是多少，軌跡是什麼？我的意思是它真的會在 25 年起飛嗎？或者之後它會起飛一點點？

Good question, Didier. I think at the Capital Markets Day, what we said is the 5 is just the 5 that we take into revenue. And the reason -- and you might also recall that the 5 was in there for the high market scenario, but also for the low market scenario. And the reason we did that is that we said we're a bit unclear at this stage as to how revenue recognition is going to look like for those systems. Also take into consideration that we don't know exactly how in '24, how in '25, how the installation process, how exactly that will work because we have different models how to do that.

好問題，迪迪埃。我認為在資本市場日，我們所說的 5 只是我們收入中的 5。原因——你可能還記得 5 是針對高市場情景的，但也適用於低市場情景。我們這樣做的原因是我們說我們在這個階段有點不清楚這些系統的收入確認方式。還要考慮到我們不確切知道 24 年如何，25 年如何，安裝過程如何，這將如何工作，因為我們有不同的模型如何做到這一點。

So that's why we said we're going to be pretty conservative. The 5 is a pretty conservative estimate of what we might be able to -- what we might ship in '24, and then we take that revenue. Clearly, we're looking for '25, we're looking at a number north of those 5 in terms of shipments that we expect for 2025. That's the reason why we were so conservative, if you like, on the number of 5 in 2025. So more shipments expected in '25.

所以這就是為什麼我們說我們會非常保守。 5 是對我們可能能夠做到的相當保守的估計——我們可能在 24 年交付的產品，然後我們將獲得該收入。顯然，我們正在尋找 '25，就我們預計 2025 年的出貨量而言，我們正在尋找這 5 個以北的數字。這就是為什麼我們如此保守的原因，如果你願意的話，在 5 個2025 年。因此，預計 25 年會有更多的出貨量。

And that's also why we said for the 20, we set medium term. Medium term is a little bit after '25, so that could be in the '26, '27 time frame. That's where we think the number of 20 will be necessary to cater the demand that we have there.

這也是為什麼我們說 20，我們設定中期。中期是在 25 年之後一點點，所以可能在 26 年，27 年的時間範圍內。這就是我們認為需要 20 個數量才能滿足我們在那裡的需求的地方。

I mean the buildup of the order book is progressing very nicely, not just on the 5000 tool, which will initially be used for research purposes. But as we mentioned to you, now we also have clear orders for the 5200 coming in last quarter and also coming in, in this quarter. So the order book there is building up nicely and in line with our expectations.

我的意思是訂單簿的建立進展非常順利，不僅僅是在最初將用於研究目的的 5000 工具上。但是正如我們向您提到的那樣，現在我們也有明確的訂單，用於上季度和本季度的 5200。因此，那裡的訂單建立得很好，符合我們的預期。

And our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar of Cowen and Co.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Co. 的 Krish Sankar。

I had 2 of them. Peter, just to follow up on the macro question. It seems like in the last 3 months, your FY '22 outlook has been pretty much stable. Still in supply terms, demand has actually grown. Kind of curious, based on your forecast, it looks like it's (inaudible) through 2025, but the market seems to be worried about macro recession. So I'm kind of curious, do you think investors are too negative? Or do you think the semi cap industry or semi industry is too positive and the truth is somewhere in between?

我有兩個。彼得，只是為了跟進宏觀問題。似乎在過去 3 個月中，您的 22 財年前景非常穩定。仍然在供應方面，需求實際上已經增長。有點好奇，根據您的預測，看起來（聽不清）到 2025 年，但市場似乎擔心宏觀經濟衰退。所以我有點好奇，你認為投資者是否過於消極？還是您認為半帽行業或半行業過於積極，而事實介於兩者之間？

Well, I'm with the company 23 years and I've always tried to read the minds of the investors, and I always got it wrong. So don't ask me that question. So no, it's a place that can only read the minds, not only read the minds, but talk with our customers and see where we are today. And the issue is, and I tried to mention this before is that the demand that we're currently seeing comes from so many places in the industry. Technology-wise, market-wise, geography-wise, it's so widespread that we have significantly underestimated the -- let's say, the width of the demand. And I think that I don't think is going to -- is going to go away.

嗯，我在公司工作了 23 年，我一直試圖讀懂投資者的想法，但我總是弄錯了。所以不要問我這個問題。所以不，這是一個只能讀心的地方，不僅能讀心，還能與我們的客戶交談，看看我們今天在哪裡。問題是，我之前試圖提到這一點是，我們目前看到的需求來自行業的很多地方。在技術方面、市場方面、地理方面，它是如此普遍，以至於我們大大低估了——比如說，需求的寬度。而且我認為我認為不會 - 會消失。

And it just -- it's an anecdote, but I met a very large -- the executive of a very large industrial company, a conglomerate, last week. And actually, they told me that they're buying washing machines and to rip out the semiconductors to put them in industrial modules. I mean, that's happening these days.

它只是 - 這是一個軼事，但我上週遇到了一個非常大的 - 一家非常大的工業公司，一家企業集團的高管。實際上，他們告訴我，他們正在購買洗衣機並拆掉半導體以將它們放入工業模塊中。我的意思是，這幾天正在發生。

Now we could say that's an anecdote. But to be honest, it happens everywhere. It is -- like I said, it is -- it is 15-, 20-, 25-year-old semiconductor technology that is now being used everywhere. It's got -- it's all driven by IoT-type applications. I don't think that is a fluke. I don't think that is real. And I think our customers are currently demanding, and I said it before, 600 deep UV systems this year. Now if we can do 60% of that, I'm pretty happy this year.

現在我們可以說這是一個軼事。但老實說，它無處不在。它是——就像我說的那樣——它是 15 年、20 年、25 年的半導體技術，現在到處都在使用。它得到了——這一切都是由物聯網類型的應用程序驅動的。我不認為這是僥倖。我不認為那是真的。我認為我們的客戶目前要求，我之前說過，今年需要 600 台深紫外線系統。現在，如果我們能做到 60%，我今年就很開心了。

Now that will also grow next year. We will ship more than 375 deep UV systems next year because we're pulling in that 2025 target that we actually had and then putting out all the stops to ship more systems.

現在這也將在明年增長。明年我們將出貨超過 375 套深紫外線系統，因為我們正在實現我們實際擁有的 2025 年目標，然後全力以赴出貨更多系統。

Now the demand could go down from 600, yes, another 25%, which is still above our maximum capacity. So you tell me whether we're too optimistic. I'm just looking at the data points and the data points just point into a market that is significantly short of semiconductor manufacturing capacity this year and next year. And what macroeconomics will do, I don't know. We'll just have to wait and see. But currently, we see no signs of any weakening in our customer base, 0. And even if the demand weakens, there's a big gap between the demand and our capacity.

現在需求可能會從 600 個下降，是的，再下降 25%，這仍然高於我們的最大產能。所以你告訴我我們是否過於樂觀。我只是在看數據點，這些數據點只是指向一個今年和明年半導體製造能力明顯不足的市場。我不知道宏觀經濟學會做什麼。我們只需要拭目以待。但目前，我們沒有看到我們的客戶群有任何減弱的跡象，0。即使需求減弱，需求與我們的產能之間也存在很大差距。

Got it. Super helpful, Peter. And then a quick follow-up. You also articulated how the strong demand for trailing edge technologies. And when I look at the China sales, it's been a record high for the last 2 quarters. From your vantage point, is there a way you can segment it and see if China is actually buying for true end demand? Or do you think they're just stockpiling deep UV tools? Any color into the thought process there would be helpful.

知道了。超級有幫助，彼得。然後快速跟進。您還闡述了對後緣技術的強勁需求。當我查看中國的銷售額時，這是過去兩個季度的歷史新高。從你的角度來看，有沒有一種方法可以分割它，看看中國是否真的在為真正的最終需求而購買？還是您認為他們只是在儲備深紫外線工具？任何進入思考過程的顏色都會有所幫助。

In fact, Krish, I don't think that China is moving at a faster pace in general than the rest of the world. Also for China this year, we're expecting about 20% growth, which is similar to what we see for the rest of the company. So I think China is in line. The fact that you saw such a high percentage for China in the Q1 sales in particular is because, as you know, we only had 3 EV systems in the total mix. So as a result of that, the China sales as a percentage of the total was so high. But I think that's an anomaly that will rectify itself in the course of the year. So we're still expecting domestic China to grow 20% just as the rest of the customer base.

事實上，Krish，我不認為中國總體上的發展速度比世界其他地區快。同樣對於今年的中國，我們預計增長約 20%，這與我們看到的公司其他部分相似。所以我認為中國是一致的。您看到中國在第一季度的銷售比例如此之高的事實是，如您所知，我們在整個組合中只有 3 個 EV 系統。因此，中國的銷售額佔總銷售額的百分比如此之高。但我認為這是一個異常現象，將在一年內自行糾正。因此，我們仍然預計中國國內將與其他客戶群一樣增長 20%。

And an answer to your question, yes, we do believe that what they're adding in terms of capacity is being used. It's being used for manufacturing. So it's not like they're piling up lithography tools, they're really using these as well.

回答你的問題，是的，我們確實相信他們在容量方面增加的東西正在被使用。它被用於製造。因此，他們並不是在堆積光刻工具，他們也確實在使用這些工具。

Yes. And we can see that just based on the utilization numbers of our machines across the entire installed base is Logic and Memory. It's never been as high as it is now. So if they're stockpiling anything, they're not stockpiling our machines, they're stockpiling semiconductors, which when you look at the shortage and the fact that people are desperately trying to get their hands on mature type of semiconductors, I don't think they're stockpiling anything.

是的。我們可以看到，僅基於我們機器在整個安裝群中的利用率數字就是邏輯和內存。它從來沒有像現在這樣高。因此，如果他們在囤積任何東西，他們不是在囤積我們的機器，而是在囤積半導體，當你看到短缺以及人們拼命想要獲得成熟類型的半導體這一事實時，我不知道。不認為他們在囤積任何東西。

So it's -- they're being used and that's what we see. As a matter of fact, one of our Chinese customers, big customer told us, "Hey, I'm sold out. I've sold out all the wafers and my -- and the wafer capacity that I'm adding sold out until the end of next year, '23. Not '22, '23."

所以它 - 他們正在被使用，這就是我們所看到的。事實上，我們的一位中國客戶，大客戶告訴我們，“嘿，我賣完了。我已經賣完了所有的晶圓和我的——以及我要增加的晶圓產能，直到明年年底，'23。不是'22，'23。

And our next question comes from the line of Adithya Metuku of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Adithya Metuku。

Firstly, again, just to follow up on Krish's question there. You -- when you say you're going to ship -- you see demand for 375 DUV units next year, we're all kind of on the investor side playing these war games around what could happen next year to see demand really go down. And if you look at consensus next year for you, consensus modeling DUV units to decline next year given these concerns around the recession.

首先，再次，只是為了跟進 Krish 的問題。你——當你說你要發貨時——你看到明年對 375 台 DUV 裝置的需求，我們都在投資者方面圍繞明年可能發生的情況進行這些戰爭遊戲，以看到需求真正下降.如果你看一下明年的共識，考慮到對經濟衰退的這些擔憂，共識模型 DUV 單位明年會下降。

My view is, even if you saw a demand decline, your customers are unlikely to cut tool orders. But in your view, can you give us some scenario as to what would need to happen for customers to really cut orders for next year given the lead times, et cetera? If you have any color around that, that would be super helpful for investors.

我的觀點是，即使您看到需求下降，您的客戶也不太可能削減工具訂單。但在您看來，您能否給我們一些情景，說明考慮到交貨時間等情況，客戶需要發生什麼才能真正削減明年的訂單？如果您對此有任何色彩，那對投資者來說將非常有幫助。

And secondly, I just wondered if you could give us the figure for High-NA EUV tools in your orders this quarter and in the backlog that would be so helpful.

其次，我只是想知道您能否在本季度的訂單和積壓訂單中向我們提供 High-NA EUV 工具的數據，這將非常有幫助。

Well, what could happen? If we would do next year, let's say, I think it's going to be over 375 because we're pulling out all the stops, like I said, which will -- that basically be our absolute maximum capacity. I mean, we're doing overtime, hiring people, whatever. There's not only us, it's particularly in the supply chain. So that's where we want to go, yes.

那麼，會發生什麼？如果我們明年這樣做，我認為它將超過 375，因為我們正在全力以赴，就像我說的那樣，這將 - 這基本上是我們的絕對最大容量。我的意思是，我們正在加班，僱用人員，等等。不僅有我們，尤其是在供應鏈中。所以這就是我們想要去的地方，是的。

Now what needs to happen for that demand to go down, the demand for next year is 600 units. So you need to lose 35% to 40% of your demand. And then you hit our capacity, our maximum capacity.

現在需要做什麼才能使需求下降，明年的需求是 600 台。所以你需要損失 35% 到 40% 的需求。然後你達到了我們的能力，我們的最大能力。

Now of course, we can all dream up horror scenarios whereby the world collapses and all kinds of crazy things happen, it's -- we'll deal with it when we are there, when it's such a disaster. But for, let's say, a macroeconomic slowdown, well, needs to be significant to take 35% to 40% out of the demand curve. And then we're still shipping more than what we shipped this year.

當然，現在我們都可以想像世界崩潰，各種瘋狂的事情發生的恐怖場景，當我們在那裡，當它是一場災難時，我們會處理它。但是，假設宏觀經濟放緩，需要顯著降低需求曲線的 35% 到 40%。然後我們的出貨量仍然超過今年的出貨量。

So yes, no. And on horror scenarios, I don't know, I'm not the kind of guy that you should ask the question, but probably all the people better suited to do that, but that's the way that I look at the world.

所以是的，不。在恐怖場景中，我不知道，我不是那種你應該問這個問題的人，但可能所有的人都更適合這樣做，但這就是我看待世界的方式。

Whatever. He was just looking at me, but I've not going way in there either. So I will try and give you a non-answer to your question on the High-NA orders, Adi. So we did disclose that we have 5 orders for High-NA 5000, for the 5000 system. That's an R&D system. We've also indicated we have multiple orders for the 5200, and we've also said that we have these orders from 3 Logic customers and 2 Memory customers, and that's really what we can share. Our customers for a host of reasons do not want us to be specific as to the order intake for High-NA for the commercial system. So that's why we stick to this to the labeling it multiple.

任何。他只是看著我，但我也沒有進去。所以我會盡量不回答你關於高 NA 訂單的問題，Adi。所以我們確實透露我們有 5 份 High-NA 5000 訂單，用於 5000 系統。那是一個研發系統。我們還表示我們有多個 5200 訂單，我們還說我們有來自 3 個邏輯客戶和 2 個內存客戶的訂單，這就是我們可以分享的。出於多種原因，我們的客戶不希望我們具體說明用於商業系統的 High-NA 的訂單量。這就是為什麼我們堅持將其標記為多個的原因。

Understood. That's very clear. Just a quick clarification on that 375 number. Is that shipments? So will that not be revenue recognized? Will you recognize revenue on all of those tools? Will there be some different...

明白了。這很清楚。只是對那個 375 號碼的快速澄清。是出貨嗎？那麼這不會被確認為收入嗎？您會確認所有這些工具的收入嗎？會不會有不一樣的...

These are deep UV systems and that generally recognized upon shipment. So I think it's the 375-ish which we're trying to, like I said, to push a bit higher that's on shipments -- revenue, revenue shipments.

這些是深紫外線系統，通常在裝運時得到認可。所以我認為這是375-ish，就像我說的那樣，我們正在努力提高出貨量——收入，收入出貨量。

I mean if you talk about next year, if you talk about next year, Adi, in all likelihood, you're going to see a bit of a balance in terms of fast ship, right? So at that stage, I think the impact of fast shipments on the delta between output and revenue should be very small.

我的意思是，如果您談論明年，如果您談論明年，Adi，您很可能會在快船方面看到一些平衡，對嗎？所以在那個階段，我認為快速出貨對產出和收入之間的增量的影響應該很小。

And our next question comes from the line of CJ Muse at Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 CJ Muse。

I guess first question, it certainly sounds like you're pulling in High-NA or have greater expectations sooner. And so I guess curious, how are you on the supply side ramping optics in particular, particularly given the supply constraints we're seeing on DUV and low NA UV?

我想第一個問題，聽起來你肯定會加入 High-NA 或有更大的期望。所以我想很好奇，你在供應方面的情況如何？

And then the second part of the question for High-NAs. How are your customer conversations evolving? And do you think we could see high-volume manufacturing insertion as early as 2 nanometer?

然後是高 NA 問題的第二部分。您的客戶對話如何發展？你認為我們可以看到早在 2 納米的大批量製造插入嗎？

Yes. I think High-NA, sooner. Generally, that's not the case because it's -- like you pointed out, I mean, it's a supply chain issue. I mean it's a different machine. It's sort of different modules that needs to be built. So this is really focused on executing according to plan, which doesn't give us a lot of room to do more and sooner. So it is really our shipment plan.

是的。我認為High-NA，更快。一般來說，情況並非如此，因為它 - 就像你指出的那樣，我的意思是，這是一個供應鏈問題。我的意思是它是一台不同的機器。這是需要構建的不同模塊。所以這真的專注於按計劃執行，這並沒有給我們很大的空間來做更多和更快的事情。所以這真的是我們的出貨計劃。

And Roger just talked about the difference between revenue recognition and shipment. But the shipment plan hasn't changed that much because it's all very much linked to the capability of the supply chain to actually forward that. But I think in HVM insertion, we always have 25, 26. I think that's very likely what it's still going to be the case.

而羅傑剛剛談到了收入確認和出貨量的區別。但發貨計劃並沒有太大變化，因為它與供應鏈實際轉發的能力密切相關。但我認為在 HVM 插入中，我們總是有 25、26 個。我認為這很可能仍然是這種情況。

Now having said that, it could very well be that you see the first 2-nanometer chips being produced in 2025 as a kind of a first set of devices that show the capability. But I think HVM is probably the '25, '26 time frame.

話雖如此，您很可能會看到 2025 年生產的第一批 2 納米芯片是第一批展示這種能力的設備。但我認為 HVM 可能是 '25、'26 的時間框架。

Very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. As you contemplate the capacity additions, can you kind of walk us through the impact to your cost structure, both COGS and OpEx?

很有幫助。然後只是快速跟進。當您考慮增加產能時，您能否向我們介紹一下對您的成本結構（COGS 和 OpEx）的影響？

Yes. I think we'll do that in Q4 in a bit more detail. But I think, yes, I mean, we need to -- we, us and our supply chain and especially the supply chain, they need to invest in CapEx. Now CapEx for us is not the major issue in our cost of goods. And I think for our suppliers, they, of course, need CapEx. But I mean, it's CapEx on a higher volume. So I don't think currently, it's a bit early and then would expect big impact on the margins or on cost, Roger?

是的。我認為我們將在第四季度更詳細地做到這一點。但我認為，是的，我的意思是，我們需要——我們、我們和我們的供應鏈，尤其是供應鏈，他們需要投資資本支出。現在對我們來說，資本支出不是我們商品成本的主要問題。我認為對於我們的供應商來說，他們當然需要資本支出。但我的意思是，它是更高數量的資本支出。所以我認為目前還為時過早，然後預計會對利潤率或成本產生重大影響，羅傑？

No, exactly, CJ. We'll come back to that in Q4 when we talk a little bit more. But to Peter's point, I wouldn't expect a significant impact on the gross margin expectation that we gave for 54% to 56% for 2025. I think it will still be in that ballpark.

不，確切地說，CJ。當我們再談一點時，我們將在第四季度回到這個問題。但就彼得而言，我預計不會對我們給出的 2025 年 54% 至 56% 的毛利率預期產生重大影響。我認為它仍然會在那個範圍內。

And our next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc of Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Aleksander Peterc。

I'd just like to come back briefly on these numbers you gave us for 2025, the capacity expansion you're looking at. So the 90 EUV and 600 deep UV. Is that your estimate of what unconstrained demand will be by 2025? Is that what the industry needs and you need to guess to an equilibrium between offer and demand or something a bit more reasonable terms of lead times? So in other words, if suppliers come back to you and say, "Yes, this is possible. It's going to be feasible, we can get there." Is that the kind of number you then drive to and that will become your revenue guidance? Or is this too optimistic and we should [cover] that in any way? That's my first question. I have a quick follow-up.

我想簡要回顧一下您給我們提供的 2025 年的這些數字，即您正在考慮的產能擴張。所以 90 EUV 和 600 深紫外。這是您對 2025 年不受約束的需求的估計嗎？這是行業需要的，您需要猜測供需之間的平衡還是更合理的交貨時間條款？換句話說，如果供應商回來說，“是的，這是可能的。這將是可行的，我們可以做到。”那是你然後開車去的那種數字，這將成為你的收入指導嗎？或者這是否過於樂觀，我們應該以任何方式[覆蓋]？這是我的第一個問題。我有一個快速跟進。

I'm probably going to answer that question for the third time. But I think it's basically what we feel the capacity is needed to actually be available in 2025 for the rest of the decade. Now if for whatever reason, the demand that we could see today and for next year would still be the same demand as we see -- that we would see in 2025, we would need it in 2025 to actually ship, but that we don't know that. I mean this is really driven by how the market is by 2025. It could be -- it's the same as it is today. It could be higher, it could be lower. We don't know that yet, but this is definitely something which we are going to discuss in Q4 where we show you a couple of scenarios where we can show that this could happen. If this happens, then you would see that result. If that happens, you would see a different result.

我可能會第三次回答這個問題。但我認為這基本上是我們認為在 2025 年剩餘十年內實際可用的容量所需的容量。現在，無論出於何種原因，我們今天和明年看到的需求仍然與我們看到的相同——我們將在 2025 年看到，我們需要在 2025 年實際發貨，但我們不需要不知道。我的意思是，這實際上是由到 2025 年的市場狀況驅動的。它可能是 - 和今天一樣。可以更高，也可以更低。我們還不知道，但這絕對是我們將在第四季度討論的問題，我們將向您展示幾個場景，我們可以證明這可能會發生。如果發生這種情況，那麼您將看到該結果。如果發生這種情況，您會看到不同的結果。

But it's really about the capacity buildup. So it's not that we are saying, well, the unconstrained demand for 2025 on us is 600 DPV and 90 EUV. We will have the capacity there that if that would be the case, we could do it, but we don't know whether it's going to be the case, but we definitely need it. We definitely need it for the second half of this decade given the growth of our customers. And let's keep our fingers crossed and see what 2025 brings us.

但這實際上是關於能力建設。因此，我們並不是說，我們對 2025 年的無限制需求是 600 DPV 和 90 EUV。我們將有能力，如果是這樣的話，我們可以做到，但我們不知道是否會這樣，但我們絕對需要它。鑑於我們客戶的增長，我們在本十年的後半段肯定需要它。讓我們祈禱吧，看看 2025 年會給我們帶來什麼。

Okay. That's very clear. And just a quick follow-up just on 3D DRAM. In light of the multiple orders you now get from DRAM customers, not just 1 but 2 customers now, could you share your thoughts on the potential timing of 3D DRAM and that 2025 number we saw being branded about? Is that now a clear indication that's actually happening or later?

好的。這很清楚。只是對 3D DRAM 的快速跟進。鑑於您現在從 DRAM 客戶那裡獲得的多個訂單，不僅僅是 1 個，而是 2 個客戶，您能否分享您對 3D DRAM 的潛在時機以及我們看到的 2025 年數字的想法？現在這是一個明確的跡象，實際上正在發生還是稍後發生？

Well, I think we've made a point a couple of times. 3D DRAM is an option. We think it's not going to be 2025. It is an option. It could hit somewhere in the second half of this decade. But we also know, and we know that because our customers are telling us this, and actually, our customers are telling this in a public way, that whatever their road map is, what is clear is that EUV and High-NA has a particularly important role to play in that road map. And the latest, very clear and public data point, and that was Samsung at their conference in November of last year, where they clearly demonstrated that EUV was there, was on their road map for the next 10 to 15 years. That's what they indicated. They said even to go to DRAM, I think it was 8 nanometers or 5 nanometer that I talked about, less than 5 nanometers. They need EUV and High-NA in order to get there.

好吧，我想我們已經說過幾次了。 3D DRAM 是一種選擇。我們認為這不會是 2025 年。這是一種選擇。它可能會在本世紀下半葉的某個地方出現。但我們也知道，而且我們知道，因為我們的客戶告訴我們這一點，實際上，我們的客戶以公開的方式告訴我們，無論他們的路線圖是什麼，明確的是 EUV 和 High-NA 具有特別在該路線圖中發揮重要作用。最新、非常明確和公開的數據點是三星在去年 11 月的會議上，他們清楚地證明了 EUV 的存在，並在他們未來 10 到 15 年的路線圖上。他們就是這樣表示的。他們說甚至去DRAM，我想我說的是8納米或5納米，不到5納米。他們需要 EUV 和 High-NA 才能到達那裡。

So that's what's important to us. That's what's driving our road map also on the -- on Memory. Could that go in conjunction with 3D DRAM? It's possible, but it will be always a combination. That's what our customers are telling us and that's what we stick by.

所以這對我們來說很重要。這也是推動我們在內存方面的路線圖的原因。這可以與 3D DRAM 結合使用嗎？這是可能的，但它總是一個組合。這就是我們的客戶告訴我們的，也是我們堅持的。

Our next question comes from the line of Rolf Bulk at New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Rolf Bulk。

I had a question on your Memory business. The order intake of memory in the quarter was again very strong, close to EUR 2.4 billion. And I was wondering, can you talk about what is driving this order flow? Is that NAND or DRAM? And is it primarily for capacity being added this year and next? Or is a large component also EUV and High-NA orders for long-term capacity additions?

我對您的內存業務有疑問。本季度的內存訂單再次非常強勁，接近 24 億歐元。我想知道，你能談談是什麼推動了這個訂單流嗎？那是NAND還是DRAM？主要是為了今年和明年增加產能嗎？還是大型組件也是 EUV 和 High-NA 的訂單，用於長期增加產能？

Yes. I think it's largely these capacity additions in Memory are for current capacity demand. I mean, like I said earlier, the utilization of our machines in the memory space is very, very high. So we even say it's the highest point ever. So if there's a high-teens, 20% bit growth number expected for this year, you just need to add capacity. So I think the bulk of what you're seeing there is just to add capacity.

是的。我認為內存中的這些容量增加主要是為了滿足當前的容量需求。我的意思是，就像我之前說的，我們機器在內存空間中的利用率非常非常高。所以我們甚至說這是有史以來的最高點。因此，如果今年預計會有 20% 的高位數增長，您只需要增加容量即可。所以我認為你看到的大部分內容只是增加容量。

And yes, there will some of it will be higher, so you will -- that's not translated into an immediately bit capacity. But with EUV, it is, because don't forget, EUV is now HVM technology also in DRAM. So most of it, the vast majority of it is for current capacity additions, which I fully understand when I look at the utilization rates.

是的，其中一些會更高，所以你會 - 這不會立即轉化為比特容量。但是對於 EUV，它是，因為不要忘記，EUV 現在也是 DRAM 中的 HVM 技術。所以其中大部分，絕大多數是用於當前的產能增加，當我查看利用率時，我完全理解這一點。

And as an unrelated follow-up, if I may, could you please give us an update on your EUV service business? How large is the business today on a run rate basis? And what growth do you expect this year? And also, where do you stand on gross margins versus the corporate averages?

作為一個無關緊要的後續行動，如果可以的話，您能否向我們介紹一下您的 EUV 服務業務的最新情況？今天的業務規模有多大？你預計今年會有什麼增長？此外，您在毛利率與公司平均水平方面的立場是什麼？

Yes. So the EUV service business is around EUR 1 billion this year. And the gross margin, we talked about gross margin in the past. So gross margin was around 30% last year. We think it's going to be around 35% this year. We talked at the beginning of the conference of this call, we also talked about some pressure on labor cost. So obviously, that's heading us also a little bit on the service side. But still, we believe 35% gross margin is possible this year. And as we said before, we're trying to get to approximately 55% in the '24, '25 time frame. That's the trajectory that we're on.

是的。因此，今年的 EUV 服務業務約為 10 億歐元。還有毛利率，我們過去講過毛利率。因此，去年的毛利率約為 30%。我們認為今年將達到 35% 左右。我們在這次電話會議的開始就談到了，我們也談到了勞動力成本的一些壓力。很明顯，這也讓我們在服務方面有點頭疼。但是，我們仍然相信今年 35% 的毛利率是可能的。正如我們之前所說，我們正努力在 24 年和 25 年的時間框架內達到大約 55%。這就是我們正在走的軌跡。

And our next question comes from Houri of ODDO BHF.

我們的下一個問題來自 ODDO BHF 的 Houri。

Yes. Actually, I would like to ask a question again about the -- your supplier to really understand what you are talking about when you say you are discussing with them. Does it mean that they are all okay to increase their capacities? And if you're -- and you're just talking about the way to do it? Or if there is some discussions to be held about the possibility to raise their capacities?

是的。實際上，我想再次問一個關於您的供應商的問題，以便在您說您正在與他們討論時真正理解您在說什麼。這是否意味著他們都可以增加他們的能力？如果你是——而且你只是在談論如何做到這一點？或者是否有一些關於提高他們能力的可能性的討論？

No, I think we just had our, let's say, supplier day a couple of weeks ago and was very clear that all our suppliers confirmed that they said this is the target that we should go for. It's really a matter of them creating the executable plans to actually get to that capacity number by the time frame that we asked.

不，我認為我們只是在幾週前舉行了供應商日，並且非常清楚我們所有的供應商都確認他們說這是我們應該追求的目標。這實際上是他們創建可執行計劃以在我們要求的時間範圍內實際達到該容量數量的問題。

And that has to do with the plans that they need to make to build square meters, to build factories to hire people, to order specialized machinery. That needs all confirmation in their supply chain. So it's a supply chain of the supply chain. They need to find the builders. They need to get the square meters. They need to get the permits.

這與他們需要製定的計劃有關，以建造平方米、建造工廠以僱用人員、訂購專用機械。這需要他們的供應鏈中的所有確認。所以它是供應鏈的供應鏈。他們需要找到建造者。他們需要得到平方米。他們需要獲得許可。

So just a very practical stuff that if you want to expand capacity, how quickly can you do that? And what are the normal, let's say, business hurdles that you would have to pass in order to make sure that, that happens. This is the type of discussion that we're having. And this is -- that's basically -- all these things are gating the conformation.

所以只是一個非常實用的東西，如果你想擴大容量，你能多快做到這一點？什麼是正常的，比方說，你必須克服的商業障礙才能確保這種情況發生。這就是我們正在進行的討論類型。這就是——基本上就是——所有這些東西都在控制構象。

So they work on this and they will get -- as we go along over the next couple of months, quarters, they will get all the confirmations and say, yes, we can do it. Probably not 100%, but 90% or 85%, yes, we can do it, and then will probably confirm that --- not very likely, will confirm that to us and says, yes, we're going to be there at that point in time when you need us. That's the situation.

所以他們在這方面工作，他們會得到——隨著我們在接下來的幾個月、幾個季度裡進行，他們會得到所有的確認，然後說，是的，我們可以做到。可能不是 100%，而是 90% 或 85%，是的，我們可以做到，然後可能會確認 --- 不太可能，會向我們確認並說，是的，我們將在那裡您需要我們的那個時間點。情況就是這樣。

Okay. And on your side, can you communicate already on the cost of such an expansion?

好的。而在你這邊，你能就這種擴張的成本進行溝通嗎？

I think most of the cost will be in the supply chain. I think, our CapEx is -- our CapEx on the balance sheet, it's roughly 10% of the total balance sheet. I mean, it's not huge. So yes, it's a big number. But when you look at the size of the company, it's not the biggest cost item. It's in the supply chain. So I think it won't be an issue for us. And I think when you look at the upside opportunity of having an extra capacity and the forecasted growth, then it's a relatively fast payback time.

我認為大部分成本將在供應鏈中。我認為，我們的資本支出是——我們在資產負債表上的資本支出，大約佔總資產負債表的 10%。我的意思是，它不是很大。所以是的，這是一個很大的數字。但是，當您查看公司的規模時，它並不是最大的成本項目。它在供應鏈中。所以我認為這對我們來說不是問題。而且我認為，當您看到擁有額外產能和預測增長的上行機會時，這是一個相對較快的投資回報時間。

All right. Sorry. We have time for one last question, and I apologize for technical difficulties at the start of this Q&A. If you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Now operator, may we have the last caller, please?

好的。對不起。我們有時間回答最後一個問題，對於本問答開始時的技術困難，我深表歉意。如果您無法接通本次電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯繫 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。現在接線員，我們可以請最後一個來電者嗎？

And that will be Francois-Xavier Bouvignies from UBS.

那將是來自瑞銀的 Francois-Xavier Bouvignies。

I just have maybe 2 quick ones. One is on the -- basically, you work out dealing with your suppliers. You mentioned, Peter, that you don't bear a lot of cost to add capacity, but these suppliers will probably have a lot of risk or more risk to you than you in terms of balance sheet and under (inaudible) charges and you want to build this capacity well ahead of time for the second decade.

我只有大概 2 個快速的。一個是——基本上，你會和你的供應商打交道。您提到，彼得，您不會為增加產能而承擔很多成本，但這些供應商在資產負債表和（聽不清）收費方面可能比您面臨很多風險或更多風險，您希望為第二個十年提前建立這種能力。

So my question is, do you expect to share somewhat the risk of the investment with your suppliers somehow, I mean, with maybe a payment or anything like that we should expect to help your suppliers to get to this kind of level and bear the risk of overcapacity?

所以我的問題是，您是否希望以某種方式與您的供應商分擔投資風險，我的意思是，通過付款或類似的方式，我們應該期望幫助您的供應商達到這種水平並承擔風險產能過剩？

And the second one is you talk about suppliers, but what about the peers, your peers as well? It seems that your capacity expansion is quite big, at least since last year. Do you expect the peers for other parts of the supply chain to increase as much? Is there a risk here that you build too much and the others don't, and therefore, you can't unlock this value?

第二個是您談論供應商，但同行呢，您的同行呢？看來你們的產能擴張是相當大的，至少從去年開始是這樣。您是否期望供應鏈其他部分的同行增加同樣多？這裡是否存在您構建太多而其他人沒有構建的風險，因此您無法解鎖此價值？

Yes. On the first question, yes, I mean, we've done that in the past also. I mean if a supplier, let's take ZEISS, for instance, it comes to us and says, hey, can you do some shared risk investment and it goes beyond what you would say, the let's say, average or normal financial capabilities of that supply. We have done that in the past and we will do it again.

是的。關於第一個問題，是的，我的意思是，我們過去也這樣做過。我的意思是，如果一個供應商，讓我們以蔡司為例，它來找我們說，嘿，你能做一些共同風險投資嗎？它超出了你所說的，比如說，該供應的平均或正常財務能力.我們過去已經這樣做了，我們將再次這樣做。

Having said that, over the last 10 years, our supply base has actually grown quite significantly also in terms of size and in terms of financial capability. So I think it's going to be limited, but if it's needed, it's needed and we'll do it. So I don't think it's going to be a major issue. So risk sharing is in our genes. So that's not the point. On the peers, we're coming out because our capacity lead times are probably the longest in the industry. So we go first. And I would expect our peers, if we do that, then the market is there and we believe the market is going to be there, they will follow. It's that simple.

話雖如此，在過去 10 年中，我們的供應基礎實際上在規模和財務能力方面也顯著增長。所以我認為這將是有限的，但如果需要，就需要，我們會去做。所以我認為這不會是一個大問題。因此，風險分擔存在於我們的基因中。所以這不是重點。在同行中，我們之所以脫穎而出，是因為我們的產能提前期可能是業內最長的。所以我們先走。我希望我們的同行，如果我們這樣做，那麼市場就在那裡，我們相信市場將會在那裡，他們會跟隨。就是這麼簡單。

All right. Now on behalf of ASML, I would like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thank you.

好的。現在我代表 ASML，感謝大家今天加入我們。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝你。

Thank you. This concludes the ASML Q1 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。 ASML 2022 年第一季度財務業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。