艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML Q1 2022 Financial Results Call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 ASML 2022 年第一季財務業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將電話會議交給 Skip Miller 先生。先生，請繼續。

All right. Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2022 first quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

好的。謝謝您，接線生。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink；以及我們的財務長 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是ASML 2022年第一季業績。此次通話將持續 60 分鐘，問題將按照收到的順序進行解答。此次電話會議也透過 asml.com 進行網路現場直播。管理層開場白的記錄和電話會議的重播將在本次電話會議結束後不久在我們的網站上提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。有關風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明可在我們的網站 asml.com 上找到，也可以在 ASML 的 20-F 表格年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2020 results conference call. I hope all of you and your family are still healthy and safe. And before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the first quarter 2022 as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. And Roger will start with a review of our first quarter 2022 financial performance with some added comments on the short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook. Roger, if you will?

謝謝你，斯基普。歡迎大家，感謝您參加我們 2020 年第一季業績電話會議。我希望你們和你們的家人健康平安。在我們開始問答環節之前，羅傑和我想對 2022 年第一季進行概述和評論，並提出我們對未來幾季的看法。羅傑將首先回顧我們 2022 年第一季的財務業績，並對短期前景做一些補充評論。最後，我將對當前的商業環境和我們未來的商業前景發表一些補充評論，以完成介紹。羅傑，你願意嗎？

Thank you, Peter. Welcome, everyone. I will first review the first quarter financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the second quarter of 2022.

謝謝你，彼得。歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第一季的財務業績，然後對 2022 年第二季提供指導。

Net sales came in at EUR 3.5 billion, which is at the high end of guidance. We shipped 9 EUV systems and recognized EUR 591 million revenue from 3 systems this quarter. Net system sales of EUR 2.3 billion, which was nicely balanced between Logic at 50% and 50% from Memory. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.2 billion, as guided. Gross margin for the quarter came in at the guidance of 49.0%.

淨銷售額達到 35 億歐元，處於預期的高點。本季我們出貨了 9 套 EUV 系統，並從 3 套系統實現了 5.91 億歐元的收入。淨系統銷售額為 23 億歐元，其中邏輯部門和記憶體部門分別佔 50% 和 50%。本季安裝基礎管理銷售額達 12 億歐元，符合預期。本季毛利率達到預期的49.0%。

On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 739 million, and SG&A expenses at EUR 208 million. R&D was below guidance as spend rates in the quarter was lower than planned and will move to Q2. We still expect to be around 14% of sales for the year.

在營運費用方面，研發費用為 7.39 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用為 2.08 億歐元。由於本季的支出率低於計劃，研發支出低於預期，並將轉移到第二季。我們仍然預計今年的銷售額將達到 14% 左右。

Net income in Q1 was EUR 695 million, representing 19.7% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 1.73.

第一季淨收入為 6.95 億歐元，佔淨銷售額的 19.7%，每股收益為 1.73 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the first quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 4.7 billion.

轉向資產負債表。第一季末，我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資達到 47 億歐元。

Moving to the order book. Q1 net system bookings came in at EUR 7.0 billion, including EUR 2.5 billion for 0.33 EUV NA systems and multiple EUV 0.55 NA systems, EXE:5200.

移至訂單簿。第一季淨系統預訂金額為 70 億歐元，其中包括 0.33 EUV NA 系統和多個 EUV 0.55 NA 系統（EXE:5200）的 25 億歐元。

Another very strong DPV order intake of EUR 4.5 billion this quarter, reflecting the continued strong demand for advanced and mature nodes.

本季 DPV 訂單量再次非常強勁，達到 45 億歐元，反映出對先進和成熟節點的持續強勁需求。

Total net system bookings was driven by Logic with 66% of the bookings and Memory accounting for the remaining 34%.

總淨系統預訂量由邏輯驅動，佔預訂量的 66%，而記憶體則佔剩餘的 34%。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the second quarter of 2022. We expect Q2 total net sales to be between EUR 5.1 billion and EUR 5.3 billion. This excludes around EUR 800 million of net delayed revenue for Q2 as a result of more fast shipments at the end of Q2 than at the end of Q1. We expect our Q2 installed base management sales to be around EUR 1.2 billion.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2022 年第二季的預期。我們預計第二季總淨銷售額將在 51 億歐元至 53 億歐元之間。這還不包括由於第二季末快速出貨量比第一季末更多而導致的第二季約 8 億歐元的淨延遲收入。我們預計第二季安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 12 億歐元。

Gross margin for Q2 is expected to be between 49% and 50%. Relative to last quarter, we expect positive margin impact from higher volume for both EUV and DPV, offset by lower EUV ASP, DPV mix and continued cost pressure in the quarter. The expected R&D expenses for Q2 are around EUR 790 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at around EUR 220 million. In the current environment, it is also appropriate to address how we may be impacted by rising costs this year. We're not immune to rising costs. There is pressure on labor cost as the global job market for engineers is tight, and there is a competition for talent.

預計第二季的毛利率在49%至50%之間。相對於上一季度，我們預計 EUV 和 DPV 銷量增加將對利潤率產生積極影響，但 EUV 平均售價下降、DPV 組合減少以及本季持續的成本壓力將抵消這一影響。第二季預計研發費用約 7.9 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用預計約 2.2 億歐元。在當前環境下，討論今年成本上漲可能對我們造成的影響也是適當的。我們也無法免於成本上漲的影響。全球工程師就業市場緊張，人才競爭激烈，勞動成本面臨壓力。

Costs related to components in the supply chain are also increasing due to higher material costs, including additional fees to secure parts.

由於材料成本上漲（包括確保零件的額外費用），供應鏈中與零件相關的成本也在增加。

Transportation costs have increased due to rising fuel costs and changing flight routes. Energy contracts and renewable energy help limit the increased energy cost impacts. We clearly see pressure on margins due to these cost increases, which we expect to translate roughly to a 1% impact on gross margin for full year 2022.

由於燃料成本上漲和航線改變，運輸成本增加。能源合約和再生能源有助於限制能源成本增加的影響。我們清楚地看到這些成本增加給利潤率帶來了壓力，我們預計這將對 2022 年全年的毛利率產生約 1% 的影響。

We expect the second half of the year will be strong with expected gross margins of around 54%, primarily driven by higher EUV and DPV volume as well as improved margin from installed base business. In summary, we currently expect gross margin to be closer to 52% for the year.

我們預計下半年業績將表現強勁，預計毛利率約為 54%，主要得益於 EUV 和 DPV 銷量的增加以及已安裝基礎業務利潤率的提高。綜上所述，我們目前預計全年毛利率將接近52%。

Our estimated 2022 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 15% and 16%. In Q1 2022, ASML acquired 3.6 million shares for a total amount of around EUR 2.1 billion as part of our current program.

我們預計 2022 年年化有效稅率將在 15% 至 16% 之間。 2022 年第一季度，ASML 根據目前計畫收購了 360 萬股股票，總價值約 21 億歐元。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, revenue and profitability for the quarter came in as guided with system revenue balanced between Logic and Memory. We expect a step-up in sales in Q2 as revenue from fast shipments in Q1 will be recognized. While supply chain challenges are still present, we will continue to utilize fast shipments as a means to get systems to customers as soon as possible.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的，本季的收入和獲利能力是根據邏輯和記憶體之間的系統收入平衡得出的。我們預計第二季的銷售額將會成長，因為第一季快速出貨的營收將得到確認。儘管供應鏈挑戰仍然存在，但我們將繼續利用快速出貨的方式盡快將系統送達客戶。

Although the current macroeconomic environment creates uncertainty, we believe the fundamental growth drivers remain intact. We continue to see unprecedented customer demand across all market segments from both advanced and mature nodes, driving demand across our entire product portfolio. We are running at maximum capacity and expect demand to exceed supply well into next year. Our view of the full year revenue, therefore, remains unchanged with year-on-year growth of around 20% over 2021.

儘管當前宏觀經濟環境存在不確定性，但我們相信基本成長動力依然完好。我們繼續看到來自先進和成熟節點的所有細分市場的客戶需求空前高漲，從而推動了我們整個產品組合的需求。我們正在以最大產能運轉，預計明年需求將超過供應。因此，我們對全年營收的預測保持不變，即 2021 年年增約 20%。

As mentioned last quarter, this 20% sales growth does not include the full shipment value of systems out for this year due to a number of fast shipments, which will result in a delayed revenue into 2023. For our EUV business, we still expect to ship around 55 systems this year. And as we plan to do fast shipments on a number of these systems, including systems in Q4, we expect some revenue to be deferred to 2023. This translates to an expected system revenue of around EUR 7.8 billion this year.

正如上個季度所提到的，由於大量快速出貨，這 20% 的銷售成長並不包括今年系統的全部出貨價值，這將導致收入延遲到 2023 年。對於我們的 EUV 業務，我們仍然預計今年將出貨約 55 套系統。由於我們計劃快速發貨其中一些系統，包括第四季度的系統，我們預計部分收入將推遲到 2023 年。這意味著今年預計系統收入約為 78 億歐元。

In our deep UV and applications business, we expect significant growth in both immersion and dry systems, as well as continued demand for metrology and inspection systems. In addition to advanced nodes, we see growing demand for deep UV systems supporting mature market segments such as analog, power and sensors. These market segments are part of the secular growth drivers in support of digital infrastructure, which includes automotive and green energy applications. We expect revenue growth of over 20% for non-EUV system revenue.

在我們的深紫外線和應用業務中，我們預計浸入式和乾式系統都將顯著增長，並且對計量和檢測系統的需求也將持續增長。除了先進節點外，我們還看到對支援模擬、電源和感測器等成熟細分市場的深紫外線系統的需求不斷增長。這些細分市場是支持數位基礎設施的長期成長動力的一部分，其中包括汽車和綠色能源應用。我們預計非 EUV 系統收入的成長將超過 20%。

For the Installed Base Management business, service revenue will continue to scale with the growing installed base of systems. Customers continue to look at all methods to add wafer capacity, including productivity upgrades. In these times, a very high fab utilization, some of these upgrades are hardware-intensive and require systems to be taken off-line for installation. Therefore, available system time will dictate their ability to install these types of upgrades. And as we mentioned in previous quarters, the quickest way to add wafer capacity is to install software productivity packages. These upgrades require less system downtime and have now been installed in most of our customer fabs. We currently expect 2022 installed base revenue to be up around 10% year-on-year.

對於安裝基礎管理業務，服務收入將隨著系統安裝基礎的不斷成長而持續擴大。客戶繼續尋找增加晶圓產能的所有方法，包括提高生產力。在目前晶圓廠利用率非常高的時期，其中一些升級是硬體密集的，需要係統離線進行安裝。因此，可用的系統時間將決定他們安裝這些類型的升級的能力。正如我們在前幾個季度提到的那樣，增加晶圓產能的最快方法是安裝軟體生產力套件。這些升級需要更少的系統停機時間，並且目前已安裝在我們的大多數客戶工廠中。我們目前預計 2022 年安裝基數營收將年增 10% 左右。

Looking at the market segments in 2022. Our view on growth is similar to last quarter. We still expect Logic system revenue to be up more than 20% year-on-year and Memory system revenue to be up around 25% year-on-year.

展望2022年的細分市場。我們對成長的看法與上一季相似。我們仍然預期邏輯系統收入將年增 20% 以上，記憶體系統收入將年增 25% 左右。

On High-NA EUV, we're making good progress. And we have currently started the integration of the first High-NA system in our new (inaudible) in Veldhoven. We received multiple orders for our EXE:5200 system in Q1. We also received additional EXE:5200 orders this month, April. With these bookings, we now have High-NA orders with 3 Logic and 2 Memory customers. The EXE:5200 is ASML's next model High-NA system and will provide the next step for lithography performance and productivity.

在高NA EUV方面，我們取得了良好的進展。目前，我們已經開始在 Veldhoven 的新工廠 (聽不清楚) 中整合第一個 High-NA 系統。我們在第一季收到了多個 EXE:5200 系統的訂單。本月（4 月）我們還收到了額外的 EXE:5200 訂單。有了這些預訂，我們現在已經有 3 個邏輯客戶和 2 個記憶體客戶的 High-NA 訂單。 EXE:5200 是 ASML 的新一代高數值孔徑系統，將為微影效能和生產力提供更進一步的提升。

The global market trends that we talked about at our Investor Day last year are broadening the application space and providing secular growth drivers for future demand. The strong demand this year and beyond is reflected in the significant bookings over the past several quarters, resulting in a backlog of around EUR 29 billion is an all-time high. We expect the strong order intake to continue as demand will continue to exceed supply also going well into next year. With multiple countries pursuing technological sovereignty, we are now seeing a number of announcements from customers for new fabs in the coming years in support of this global trend. These announced investments are expected to have a positive impact on the medium-term demand. As this unprecedented demand is exceeding our capacity, ASML and its supply chain partners are planning to actively add capacity to meet future customer demand as communicated during Investor Day last year. But at that time, we talked about the current capacity ramp is expected to deliver an output capability of over 70 EUV 0.33 NA systems and around 375 DPV systems by 2025.

我們去年在投資者日上討論的全球市場趨勢正在拓寬應用空間並為未來的需求提供長期成長動力。今年及以後的強勁需求反映在過去幾季的大量訂單中，導致積壓訂單金額達到約 290 億歐元，創歷史新高。我們預計強勁的訂單量將持續下去，因為需求將繼續超過供應，並且這種情況也將持續到明年。隨著多個國家追求技術主權，我們現在看到許多客戶宣佈在未來幾年建立新的晶圓廠，以支持這一全球趨勢。這些宣布的投資預計將對中期需求產生正面影響。由於這種前所未有的需求超出了我們的產能，ASML 及其供應鏈合作夥伴正計劃積極增加產能以滿足未來客戶的需求，正如去年投資者日期間所傳達的那樣。但當時，我們談到目前的產能提升預計將在 2025 年實現超過 70 個 EUV 0.33 NA 系統和約 375 個 DPV 系統的輸出能力。

As mentioned last quarter, we see a need to further increase our output beyond this level in order to meet the stronger and longer market demand to support an industry that is expected to at least double by 2030. With the goal of adding more capacity, we're investigating the feasibility of increasing our annual capacity by 2025 to around 90 EUV 0.33 NA systems and 600 DPV systems.

正如上個季度所提到的，我們認為有必要進一步提高產量，以滿足更強勁、更持久的市場需求，以支持預計到 2030 年至少翻一番的行業。為了增加產能，我們正在研究到 2025 年將年產能提高到約 90 台 EUV 0.33 NA 系統和 600 台 DPV 系統的可行性。

For deep UV, we're planning to increase capacity for both immersion and dry, with a heavier weighting towards dry. We're also discussing with our supply chain partners to secure a capacity of around 20 EUV 0.55 High-NA systems in the medium term. Bear in mind that this translates to what we currently feel our maximum capacity goal should be and may therefore not be a final output plan. We discussed our goal recently with our supply chain partners and asked them to come back in the coming quarters with confirmation on the feasibility of our request.

對於深紫外線，我們計劃增加浸入式和乾式處理的能力，並加強乾式處理的權重。我們也正在與我們的供應鏈合作夥伴討論，以確保中期內約 20 個 EUV 0.55 高 NA 系統的產能。請記住，這意味著我們目前認為我們的最大容量目標應該是什麼，因此可能不是最終的產出計畫。我們最近與我們的供應鏈合作夥伴討論了我們的目標，並要求他們在未來幾季內回來確認我們請求的可行性。

Once we complete this analysis, we also expect to revisit our 2025 scenarios and growth opportunities beyond 2025. We're planning to provide an update to the capital markets in the Q4 time frame.

完成此分析後，我們也希望重新審視 2025 年的情境以及 2025 年以後的成長機會。我們計劃在第四季度向資本市場提供最新資訊。

It is clearly a dynamic, challenging but also exciting period in our industry and it only increases our confidence in our long-term growth opportunity.

顯然，這是我們行業一個充滿活力、充滿挑戰但又令人興奮的時期，它只會增強我們對長期成長機會的信心。

And with that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Now operator, could we have the final instructions and then the first question, please?

謝謝你，羅傑和彼得。操作員將立即指導您在問答環節的協議。 （操作員指示）現在操作員，我們可以得到最後的指示，然後是第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) One moment, please, for the first question and that comes from the line of Robert Sanders at Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）請稍等片刻，第一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅伯特·桑德斯。

Like we need to move to the next caller, operator.

就像我們需要轉到下一個呼叫者，接線員。

So the next call is -- the next caller is Didier Scemama of Bank of America.

下一個電話是－下一個來電者是美國銀行的 Didier Scemama。

Third one?

第三個？

Okay. So the next question will come from the line of Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo.

好的。下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬‧夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

Looks like it's more structural.

看起來它更加結構化。

Mike, I think there's a connection issue.

麥克，我認為有連接問題。

Just one moment, I'll just have a look into this. It does look like the line is open, but yes, that would be 3 questions in a row. That looks like it's possible that's the connection. Let me just have a moment.

請稍等，我看一下這個。看起來這條線路確實是開放的，但是是的，那將是連續 3 個問題。看起來，這有可能就是其中的連結。讓我稍等片刻。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Okay. Apologies at the latest. So I'm just going to test this. Joe from Wells Fargo, are you able to hear us and speak?

好的。最遲道歉。所以我只是要測試一下這個。富國銀行的喬，你聽得到我們說話嗎？

Yes. Can you hear me now?

是的。現在你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes. We can hear you. Apologies.

是的。我們能聽到你的聲音。抱歉。

Yes. Correct. We just have to make sure perhaps we can squeeze in the other -- a few that were kicked out because of...

是的。正確的。我們只需要確保我們能擠進其他人——有些人因為……而被趕出去了。

Yes. Let's cycle back on both Rob and Didier exactly.

是的。讓我們重新回顧一下 Rob 和 Didier 的對話。

Yes. Rob and Didier. So we just have to make sure that they somehow get back in the queue.

是的。羅布和迪迪埃。所以我們只需要確保他們以某種方式回到隊列中。

Yes. Okay. Go ahead, Joe.

是的。好的。繼續吧，喬。

Joe, please.

喬，請。

Okay. Great. So I wanted to ask a question on the capacity expansion plans, specifically on the DUV side. When I look at your prior expansion plans relative to like the high end of your 2025 model, it looks like you had been kind of putting in about a 30% higher manufacturing capacity. So with the updated capacity plans, are you looking to maybe increase that kind of softer range? Or how should we think about that?

好的。偉大的。所以我想問一個關於產能擴張計劃的問題，特別是在 DUV 方面。當我查看您先前的擴張計劃（相對於 2025 年車型的高端）時，我發現您的製造能力似乎已經提高了約 30%。那麼，根據更新後的容量計劃，您是否希望增加這種較軟的範圍？或者我們應該如何思考這個問題？

Yes. Joe, that's a good question. Basically, the number of 600 is a result of 2 things. One is, you have to remember, when we did the September Capital Markets Day, we prepared this a couple of months before. So I think you're looking at market intelligence that, as compared to last year, is about a year old. So we have -- has a bit more insights. And I think that's translated into that number. And on the other hand, we are currently looking at the demand for this year and next year, where it comes from. Looking at the customer base, which effectively means that every customer we almost ever sold a machine to is coming to us to ask for a DPV tool, which was just particularly true for dry.

是的。喬，這個問題問得好。基本上，600 這個數字就是兩件事的結果。首先，你必須記住，當我們舉辦九月資本市場日時，我們早在幾個月前就已經準備好了。因此我認為，與去年相比，您所查看的市場情報大約有一年了。因此，我們有了更多的見解。我認為這已經轉化成了那個數字。另一方面，我們目前正在研究今年和明年的需求，以及需求來自哪裡。查看客戶群，這實際上意味著幾乎每個我們賣過機器的客戶都會來找我們索取 DPV 工具，對於乾式工具來說尤其如此。

So it's the current demand level plus our, let's say, insights that have progressed over the last 12 months or so. And those insights are basically across a number of lines. I would say one is the mature market upside is higher because the visibility has increased, especially from Asia. And when we look at the type of semiconductors that are in demand now and the capacity that's been installed and especially if you look at the lower end, when you talk about power ICs, you talk about sensors, optical and non-optical sensors, analog. You talk about microcontrollers. There is a demand for those type of semiconductors almost in every industrial area, which when we look at it and we look at the growth numbers and the demand, talking to our customers, it's a very wide range, just the mature market upside is really driven by a significant increase of IoT-type opportunities. Now that's one.

因此，這是當前的需求水準加上我們在過去 12 個月左右取得的進展的見解。這些見解基本上涵蓋了多個方面。我想說的是，一方面，成熟市場的上行空間更大，因為知名度已經提高，尤其是來自亞洲的知名度。當我們研究現在所需的半導體類型和已安裝的容量時，特別是如果你研究低端，當你談論電源 IC 時，你會談論感測器、光學和非光學感測器、類比。您談論的是微控制器。幾乎每個工業領域都對這類半導體有需求，當我們觀察成長數字和需求，並與客戶交談時，我們發現範圍非常廣泛，成熟市場的上行空間實際上是由物聯網類型機會的顯著增加所驅動的。現在這是一個。

Number two is we also see the need for more silicon for the PC and high-power compute applications. It has to do with the fact that you actually see that in order to be more energy efficient, the device's clock speed, the clock frequency is decreased but actually has a significant impact on the energy usage. However, it also has an impact on the performance. So how do you compensate that by adding more transistors. Where you have more transistors, you add more silicon square millimeters. So die sizes are growing. That's what we very clearly see has also been confirmed with many customers.

第二，我們也看到個人電腦和高功率運算應用對更多矽片的需求。這與以下事實有關：為了提高能源效率，設備的時脈速度和時脈頻率會降低，但這實際上會對能源使用產生重大影響。但這也對性能有影響。那麼如何透過添加更多晶體管來彌補這一點呢？電晶體越多，矽平方毫米就越多。因此晶片尺寸正在不斷增加。我們非常清楚地看到這一點，也得到了許多客戶的證實。

Then we see also in non-semi litho applications, for instance, goggles and waveguides. We see an increase in the demand for lithography equipment. And then on top of that, we see the demand medium term for technological sovereignty demand, which is basically an incentive program that actually helps our leading-edge customers to build out fab capacity quicker. So I think all in all, the -- and also the -- I would say, the market visibility has increased. A very important issue, of course, that our customers are finding out, that our order lead time is one thing but the most important lead time is the capacity lead time. So our customers now sharing with us much longer capacity improvement plans, which actually extend way into, let's say, the 2024, 2025 time frame. So all that together gives the confidence that the numbers that we're talking about, which are 90 EUV numbers and the 600 deep UV numbers have actually a basis. Now a lot of the detail we would like to share with you once we get the confirmation from our supply chain partners that, that feasibility request is -- can actually be executed on. And we think that will happen in the next couple of quarters. So in Q4, it's the reason why we want to update you to a Capital Market Day, where we can give you some more details on what I just said, which basically -- I think I want to give you some details, but that then we can spend a bit more time on it.

然後我們也看到非半光刻應用，例如護目鏡和波導。我們看到對光刻設備的需求正在增加。除此之外，我們還看到了中期對技術主權的需求，這基本上是一個激勵計劃，實際上可以幫助我們的前沿客戶更快地建立晶圓廠產能。所以我認為總的來說，市場知名度已經提高了。當然，一個非常重要的問題是，我們的客戶發現，我們的訂單交付週期是一回事，但最重要的交付週期是產能交付週期。因此，我們的客戶現在與我們分享更長的產能改進計劃，這些計劃實際上延伸到 2024 年、2025 年的時間範圍。因此，所有這些加在一起，讓我們相信，我們所談論的數字，即 90 個 EUV 數字和 600 個深 UV 數字，實際上是有基礎的。一旦我們從供應鏈夥伴那裡得到確認，可行性請求確實可以執行，我們就想與你們分享很多細節。我們認為這將在未來幾季內發生。因此，在第四季度，這就是我們想要向您更新資本市場日的原因，我們可以為您提供有關我剛才所說的內容的更多細節，基本上 - 我想我想向您提供一些細節，但這樣我們就可以花更多的時間在這上面。

And then specifically also, Joe, to your question on the buffer because you are right in the -- on the Capital Markets Day, we did have a buffer because there also we indicated that we were looking at a capacity of 375 units in DPV at that stage. And if you took our market share in the worldwide demand, then, of course, that was lower than the 375. So that's the buffer that you're referring to.

然後具體來說，喬，關於緩衝的問題，因為你是對的——在資本市場日，我們確實有一個緩衝，因為我們也表示，我們當時正在考慮 DPV 中 375 個單位的容量。如果你計算我們在全球需求中的市場份額，那麼當然，這個數字低於 375。這就是你所指的緩衝。

There, I would say that's typically something that we will discuss in the Investor Day that Peter was referring to because Peter is talking about what we're looking into in terms of capacity. At the Investor Day, at the Capital Markets Day, we're obviously also going to articulate our expectations on demand. And there, I think you will see how that capacity will relate to the demand that we see for 2025. And that will then give you a bit of an indication on the buffer that we foresee for 2025.

我想說，這通常是我們在投資者日討論的內容，彼得提到了這一點，因為彼得正在談論我們在產能方面正在研究的內容。在投資者日、資本市場日，我們顯然也會根據需求表達我們的期望。在那裡，我想你會看到這種產能與我們預期的 2025 年需求之間的關係。這將為你提供一些關於我們預計的 2025 年緩衝量的指示。

That's some really helpful details. Just as a quick follow-up. I was wondering if you could maybe just give us the puts and takes on the EUV ASP this quarter, what drove the upside?

這些細節確實很有幫助。只是作為快速的後續行動。我想知道您是否可以告訴我們本季 EUV 平均售價的利弊，是什麼推動了其上漲？

Yes. It's primarily accounting, Joe, because, as you know, with VPA accounting, you get these corrections based on estimates and based on revisions of estimates that you make for the VPA.

是的。喬，這主要是會計問題，因為如你所知，使用 VPA 會計，你可以根據估計以及對 VPA 所做的估計修訂獲得這些更正。

And of course, then if you only have 3 EUV units in sales as we had for this quarter, then, of course, that has a big impact on the ASP. But it's not -- nothing specific. It's not that all of a sudden the ASP has risen dramatically. I think in your models, I think it's still prudent to take the 160 million as the ASP for 3600 going forward.

當然，如果像本季一樣，只有 3 台 EUV 銷量，那麼這當然會對 ASP 產生很大影響。但事實並非如此——沒有什麼具體的東西。平均售價並不是突然大幅上漲的。我認為在您的模型中，將 1.6 億作為 3600 未來的平均銷售價格仍然是謹慎的。

And apologies for the issue earlier. We are now able to go back to the line of Robert Sanders at Deutsche Bank.

我對之前的問題表示歉意。現在我們可以回到德意志銀行的羅伯特桑德斯 (Robert Sanders) 的路線。

It was just around the backlog for the EUV tools. If I just do some sort of probably simple math, it looks like your backlog for DUV only is sitting at around 500 tools or so, while you're shipping around 60 tools per quarter in DUV only. So does that mean that the waiting time for DUV tool today is more than 2 years?

這只是 EUV 工具積壓的部分。如果我做一些簡單的數學計算，看起來您的 DUV 積壓訂單僅有 500 個工具左右，而您每季度僅在 DUV 中運送約 60 個工具。那麼這是否意味著今天 DUV 工具的等待時間超過 2 年？

And related to that, as you think about how you -- your increase of DUV capacity, where would you like that sort of waiting time to go back to? Would it go back to 9 months in a perfect world? Or is there a kind of new reality where backlog will be extended for quite a while?

與此相關，當您考慮如何增加 DUV 容量時，您希望等待時間回到什麼時候？在完美的世界中它會回到 9 個月嗎？或者是否存在一種新的現實，即積壓將會持續相當長一段時間？

Yes. Two good questions, Rob. One, yes, the DPV backlog is quite significant. You mentioned 500, it actually is a little bit more. But -- yes, we're shipping around 60 units. But you have to realize that while we're doing that, we are increasing our shipment capability. I mean, although we are not at the 600 units as we mentioned, we will be able to increase more deep UV shipments throughout this year and next year for the simple reason that we're basically pulling out all the stops in cycle time reduction, in process efficiency. So I think that number will go up. So it will not be stable.

是的。羅布，這兩個問題問得好。首先，是的，DPV 積壓問題相當嚴重。你提到了 500，實際上要多一點。但是——是的，我們正在運送大約 60 台。但你必須意識到，我們在這樣做的同時，也在提高我們的運輸能力。我的意思是，儘管我們還沒有達到我們提到的 600 台的數量，但我們將能夠在今年和明年增加更多的深紫外線出貨量，原因很簡單，我們基本上在竭盡全力縮短週期時間，提高流程效率。所以我認為這個數字還會上升。所以它不會穩定。

Having said that, you are right. If you would come in and you want a deep UV tool now, it's going to be second half of next year because for the simple reason that the PO, the purchase order lead time is completely irrelevant now. It's the capacity lead time.

話雖如此，你是對的。如果您現在進來並且想要一個深紫外線工具，那麼要到明年下半年了，因為採購訂單的交付週期現在完全無關緊要，原因很簡單。這是產能交付週期。

So you need to build capacity in order to be able to get more, which ultimately means that, yes, by we think 2025, let's take another 2 years at least to build out that capacity. Then we will go back to, let's say, 9 months and less PO lead time. Yes. So this is indeed the case.

因此，您需要建造產能才能獲得更多產能，這最終意味著，是的，我們認為到 2025 年，我們至少需要再花 2 年時間來建造該產能。然後我們將回到比如說 9 個月或更短的採購訂單交付週期。是的。事實確實如此。

This is also why the demand that we currently see in deep UV, but we can probably only ship at this moment in time this year, only 60% of the deep UV demand. So anything that comes on that, that's driven by our maximum capacity. And anything beyond that, indeed, is a matter of capacity lead time, not the only time.

這也是為什麼我們目前看到深紫外線的需求，但我們今年此時此刻可能只能出貨，只能滿足深紫外線需求的 60%。因此，任何由此產生的後果都取決於我們的最大容量。除此之外的任何事情實際上都是產能交付時間的問題，而不是唯一時間的問題。

Got it. Just a quick follow-up to that. I'm assuming suppliers will want prepayments, guarantees in order to build more capacity for you guys. And they may look for higher pricing. But so should we think about pricing of individual tools going up on top of the inflation that we're seeing from the various different cost drivers just from the fact that suppliers will want some kind of guarantee from you guys that you'll take delivery?

知道了。這只是對此的一個快速跟進。我假設供應商會想要預付款和擔保，以便為你們建立更多的產能。他們可能會尋求更高的定價。但是，我們是否應該考慮在通貨膨脹的基礎上提高單一工具的價格，而通貨膨脹是由各種不同的成本驅動因素造成的，僅僅是因為供應商希望你們提供某種形式的交貨保證？

Yes. I think this is -- it's always been the case when you go to the supply base, hey, we need to add capacity. I think we have a pretty convincing story for them that this industry will grow. Like I said in the prepared remarks, we think there's a very good chance that this -- that the industry of our customers will more than double before the end of the decade. And if that's the case, we're just going to need more capacity, which they all agree with.

是的。我認為這是——當你去供應基地時總是這樣的，嘿，我們需要增加產能。我認為我們有一個非常有說服力的故事可以告訴他們這個行業將會成長。正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們認為，我們的客戶的行業很有可能在 2020 年之前增長一倍以上。如果情況確實如此，我們就需要更多的容量，他們都同意這一點。

Now if we're going to help suppliers, and I'm not excluding that at all, it's just a matter of sometimes the financial means that a supplier might have or run into a certain financial ceiling that we might help and step in like we've done in the past, that's not a major issue.

現在，如果我們要幫助供應商，我完全不排除這種可能性，這只是一個問題，有時供應商的財務能力可能達到一定的財務上限，我們可能會像過去那樣提供幫助和介入，這不是什麼大問題。

That is not to take away the risk but just to make sure that people execute faster. And I think that, that might happen. But generally, our suppliers are big enough to pay for their own CapEx. So I don't think that's going to be a major issue.

這並不是為了消除風險，而只是為了確保人們執行得更快。我認為，這可能會發生。但一般來說，我們的供應商有足夠的實力支付自己的資本支出。所以我不認為這會是一個大問題。

And on pricing, I think the cost increase that we've seen are really short-term cost increases. We do value pricing. So it is not cost plus, what we are doing. Having said that, the value of the wafers coming out of our customers over time will also go up, which were just going to be a function of that cost increase. So it also means that going forward, value pricing will also lead to different prices that we will charge to our customers. I mean that's all connected, not short term, but definitely over the next 12 to 24 months when the volume purchase agreements run out, we have new volume purchase agreements that will be reflected.

關於定價，我認為我們看到的成本增加實際上是短期成本增加。我們確實重視定價。所以我們所做的並不是成本加成。話雖如此，隨著時間的推移，我們的客戶生產的晶圓的價值也會上升，這只是成本增加的結果。所以這也意味著，未來價值定價也將導致我們向客戶收取不同的價格。我的意思是，這一切都是相互關聯的，不是短期的，但肯定會在未來 12 到 24 個月內，當批量採購協議到期時，我們會有新的批量採購協議得到反映。

And our next question comes from the line of Didier Scemama of Deutsche -- Bank of America, sorry.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行（美國銀行）的 Didier Scemama，抱歉。

I've got 2 quick questions. First of all, maybe a question just to understand a bit better the '25 capacity plan. I know you don't like to talk about WFE, but I would like to understand what's baked in your numbers because when I just sort of reverse engineer what you've guided for, I get to WFE roughly in the $140 million to $150 million range. I just wanted to understand if that's what you're thinking about.

我有兩個簡單的問題。首先，也許我只是想問一個問題，以便更好地了解 25 年的容量計劃。我知道您不喜歡談論 WFE，但我想了解您的數字中包含哪些內容，因為當我對您的指導進行逆向工程時，我發現 WFE 大約在 1.4 億美元到 1.5 億美元之間。我只是想了解您是否正在考慮這個。

And related to that, when we make WFE intensity numbers, assumptions, et cetera, you get to a global semiconductor demand in 2025 in the range of EUR 800 billion-plus to EUR 940 billion-plus, which I'm a believer, but that's an aggressive growth rate, especially in the context of the current macro environment and worries about researching, et cetera. So I just wanted to understand if that's the right way to think about it? And if not, why not? And I've got a quick follow-up on High-NA.

與此相關，當我們計算 WFE 強度數字、進行假設等時，我們會得出 2025 年全球半導體需求將在 8000 億歐元以上至 9400 億歐元以上的範圍內，我相信這一點，但這是一個積極的增長率，特別是在當前宏觀環境和對研究的擔憂等背景下。所以我只是想知道這是否是正確的思考方式？如果不是，為什麼？我對 High-NA 進行了快速跟進。

Well, I think there's -- a lot of what you said is the right way to think about it. But I think the only comment I would make is that you pin everything on 2025. When we basically say we want to build our debt capacity by 2025, we do this also with the intent and with the focus on what we believe is going to be a very strong secular growth for our customers. So even if you look at the latest Gartner data, actually, they are above EUR 1 billion for 2030.

嗯，我認為——您所說的很多內容都是正確的思考方式。但我認為我唯一想說的是，你把一切都寄託在 2025 年。當我們基本上說我們希望在 2025 年前建立我們的債務能力時，我們這樣做也是出於這樣的意圖，並專注於我們認為將為我們的客戶帶來非常強勁的長期成長。因此，即使你查看最新的 Gartner 數據，實際上，到 2030 年，這一數字也將超過 10 億歐元。

And so it -- so it is capacity that is there for the second half of the decade. It doesn't mean that if we would have that capacity by 2025 that the -- we're not saying that the semiconductor industry will gobble up all our capacity by 2025, but it will definitely do that in the second half. And this is why it's important because you add capacity, you need lead time. You need to start now because it takes a couple of years. And that might be that we don't need it in 2025. We might definitely need it in '26 or '27 or '28 to your point.

所以 — — 所以這是未來五年內存在的產能。這並不意味著如果我們在 2025 年就擁有這樣的產能——我們並不是說半導體產業將在 2025 年吞噬我們所有的產能，但它肯定會在下半年做到這一點。這就是為什麼它很重要，因為你增加產能，你需要準備時間。您需要現在就開始，因為這需要幾年的時間。也就是說，我們在 2025 年可能不需要它。但正如你所說，我們在 2026 年、2027 年或 2028 年肯定需要它。

Now -- and if you then say if you would look at the latest Gartner data, which is just above, I think it's EUR 1.1 trillion. If you look at that and you apply your historical WFE numbers, you're coming pretty close to what you just said. So it is needed. This is an investment in the growth of the company and the growth of the industry of our customers. That's what it is. And I'm not telling you what the 2025 revenue number for the semiconductor industry is going to be, but it's going to be higher. That's absolutely certain. But this is the reason why. So I think your line of reasoning is correct or you don't pin yourself onto 2025 as a year.

現在 - 如果您查看上面的最新 Gartner 數據，我認為是 1.1 兆歐元。如果您看一下這個數字並應用歷史 WFE 數字，您會發現結果非常接近您剛才所說的。所以這是需要的。這是對公司成長和客戶產業成長的投資。就是這樣。我不會告訴你 2025 年半導體產業的收入數字會是多少，但它會更高。這是絕對肯定的。但這就是原因。所以我認為你的推理是正確的，或者你不應該把 2025 年定為一個年份。

Very clear. Perfect. So my second question is on High-NA. So at the time of the CMD, you were sort of cautiously telling us about 5 units, give or take, 2025. Now you're saying that you're thinking about building capacity for 20 units midterm. So I take it beyond 2025. I just wondered if you could, a, give us a sense of how many units have you booked so far given the support you get from your 5 customers in the quarter? And give or take, I mean are you thinking about more than 5 units already for 2025? Or sort of what's the linearity of that 20, what's the trajectory? I mean is it really taking off in '25? Or is it taking off a little bit after?

非常清楚。完美的。我的第二個問題是關於 High-NA 的。因此，在 CMD 期間，您謹慎地告訴我們大約 5 個單位，大約在 2025 年。現在您說您正在考慮在中期建造 20 個單位的產能。所以我認為它要到 2025 年以後。我只是想知道，您是否可以告訴我們，考慮到您在本季度從 5 位客戶那裡獲得的支持，到目前為止您已經預訂了多少台？大致如此，我的意思是，您是否已經考慮在 2025 年增加 5 個以上的單位？或者說這 20 的線性度是怎麼樣的，軌跡是怎麼樣的？我的意思是它真的會在 25 年起飛嗎？還是稍後再起飛？

Good question, Didier. I think at the Capital Markets Day, what we said is the 5 is just the 5 that we take into revenue. And the reason -- and you might also recall that the 5 was in there for the high market scenario, but also for the low market scenario. And the reason we did that is that we said we're a bit unclear at this stage as to how revenue recognition is going to look like for those systems. Also take into consideration that we don't know exactly how in '24, how in '25, how the installation process, how exactly that will work because we have different models how to do that.

問得好，迪迪埃。我認為在資本市場日，我們所說的 5 只是我們計入收入的 5。原因在於－您可能還記得，5 不僅適用於高市場情景，也適用於低市場情景。我們這麼做的原因是，我們表示現階段對這些系統的收入確認方式還不太清楚。也要考慮到，我們不知道 24 年、25 年的具體安裝過程如何，以及具體如何運作，因為我們有不同的模型來實現這一點。

So that's why we said we're going to be pretty conservative. The 5 is a pretty conservative estimate of what we might be able to -- what we might ship in '24, and then we take that revenue. Clearly, we're looking for '25, we're looking at a number north of those 5 in terms of shipments that we expect for 2025. That's the reason why we were so conservative, if you like, on the number of 5 in 2025. So more shipments expected in '25.

這就是為什麼我們說我們會非常保守。 5 是我們可能在 24 年發貨量的相當保守的估計，然後我們再計算收入。顯然，我們預計 2025 年的出貨量將超過 5。這就是為什麼我們對 2025 年 5 這個數字如此保守的原因。因此，預計 2025 年的出貨量會更多。

And that's also why we said for the 20, we set medium term. Medium term is a little bit after '25, so that could be in the '26, '27 time frame. That's where we think the number of 20 will be necessary to cater the demand that we have there.

這也是為什麼我們說我們為 20 年設定了中期目標。中期是在 25 年之後不久，所以可能是在 26 年、27 年的時間範圍內。我們認為需要 20 個這樣的人員來滿足那裡的需求。

I mean the buildup of the order book is progressing very nicely, not just on the 5000 tool, which will initially be used for research purposes. But as we mentioned to you, now we also have clear orders for the 5200 coming in last quarter and also coming in, in this quarter. So the order book there is building up nicely and in line with our expectations.

我的意思是訂單簿的累積進展非常順利，不僅僅是 5000 個工具，它最初將用於研究目的。但正如我們向您提到的那樣，上個季度和本季我們都有 5200 台的明確訂單。因此，那裡的訂單量正在順利成長，符合我們的預期。

And our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar of Cowen and Co.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Co. 的 Krish Sankar。

I had 2 of them. Peter, just to follow up on the macro question. It seems like in the last 3 months, your FY '22 outlook has been pretty much stable. Still in supply terms, demand has actually grown. Kind of curious, based on your forecast, it looks like it's (inaudible) through 2025, but the market seems to be worried about macro recession. So I'm kind of curious, do you think investors are too negative? Or do you think the semi cap industry or semi industry is too positive and the truth is somewhere in between?

我有 2 個。彼得，只是想跟進一下宏觀問題。看來在過去 3 個月中，您對 22 財年的展望相當穩定。從供應角度來看，需求實際上有所成長。有點好奇，根據您的預測，它看起來（聽不清楚）要到 2025 年，但市場似乎擔心宏觀衰退。所以我有點好奇，您是否認為投資人太消極？或者您認為半資本產業或半產業過於樂觀，而事實則介於兩者之間？

Well, I'm with the company 23 years and I've always tried to read the minds of the investors, and I always got it wrong. So don't ask me that question. So no, it's a place that can only read the minds, not only read the minds, but talk with our customers and see where we are today. And the issue is, and I tried to mention this before is that the demand that we're currently seeing comes from so many places in the industry. Technology-wise, market-wise, geography-wise, it's so widespread that we have significantly underestimated the -- let's say, the width of the demand. And I think that I don't think is going to -- is going to go away.

嗯，我在這家公司工作了 23 年，我一直試著了解投資人的想法，但我總是錯的。所以不要問我這個問題。所以，不，這是一個只能讀懂思想的地方，不僅可以讀懂思想，還可以與我們的客戶交談並了解我們今天的狀況。問題是，我之前曾試圖提到，我們目前看到的需求來自產業中的許多地方。從技術、市場和地理角度來看，它是如此普遍，以至於我們嚴重低估了需求的廣度。我認為這種情況不會消失。

And it just -- it's an anecdote, but I met a very large -- the executive of a very large industrial company, a conglomerate, last week. And actually, they told me that they're buying washing machines and to rip out the semiconductors to put them in industrial modules. I mean, that's happening these days.

這只是一則軼事，但我上週見到了一位非常大的——一家非常大的工業公司、一家企業集團的高階主管。實際上，他們告訴我，他們正在購買洗衣機，並將其中的半導體拆出來放入工業模組中。我的意思是，這種事現在正在發生。

Now we could say that's an anecdote. But to be honest, it happens everywhere. It is -- like I said, it is -- it is 15-, 20-, 25-year-old semiconductor technology that is now being used everywhere. It's got -- it's all driven by IoT-type applications. I don't think that is a fluke. I don't think that is real. And I think our customers are currently demanding, and I said it before, 600 deep UV systems this year. Now if we can do 60% of that, I'm pretty happy this year.

現在我們可以說這是一個軼事。但說實話，這種事到處都會發生。正如我所說，它是 15 年、20 年、25 年前的半導體技術，現在已被廣泛應用。這一切都是由物聯網類型的應用所驅動的。我不認為那隻是僥倖。我不認為那是真的。我認為我們的客戶目前的需求是，正如我之前所說，今年需要 600 套深紫外線系統。現在，如果我們能實現其中的 60%，我今年會非常高興。

Now that will also grow next year. We will ship more than 375 deep UV systems next year because we're pulling in that 2025 target that we actually had and then putting out all the stops to ship more systems.

明年這數字還會成長。明年我們將出貨超過 375 套深紫外線系統，因為我們正在實現 2025 年的實際目標，然後竭盡全力出貨更多系統。

Now the demand could go down from 600, yes, another 25%, which is still above our maximum capacity. So you tell me whether we're too optimistic. I'm just looking at the data points and the data points just point into a market that is significantly short of semiconductor manufacturing capacity this year and next year. And what macroeconomics will do, I don't know. We'll just have to wait and see. But currently, we see no signs of any weakening in our customer base, 0. And even if the demand weakens, there's a big gap between the demand and our capacity.

現在需求可能會從 600 下降，是的，再下降 25%，但這仍然高於我們的最大容量。那你告訴我我們是否過於樂觀。我只是在看數據點，數據點顯示今年和明年市場半導體製造能力將嚴重短缺。我不知道宏觀經濟學會扮演什麼角色。我們只能拭目以待。但目前，我們沒有看到客戶群有任何減弱的跡象，0。即使需求減弱，需求和我們的產能之間也存在著很大差距。

Got it. Super helpful, Peter. And then a quick follow-up. You also articulated how the strong demand for trailing edge technologies. And when I look at the China sales, it's been a record high for the last 2 quarters. From your vantage point, is there a way you can segment it and see if China is actually buying for true end demand? Or do you think they're just stockpiling deep UV tools? Any color into the thought process there would be helpful.

知道了。非常有幫助，彼得。然後進行快速跟進。您也闡明了對尖端技術的強勁需求。當我查看中國銷售額時，發現過去兩季的銷售額創下了歷史新高。從您的角度來看，有沒有辦法對其進行細分，看看中國是否真的在為真正的最終需求而購買？還是您認為他們只是在囤積深紫外線工具？任何融入思考過程的顏色都會有所幫助。

In fact, Krish, I don't think that China is moving at a faster pace in general than the rest of the world. Also for China this year, we're expecting about 20% growth, which is similar to what we see for the rest of the company. So I think China is in line. The fact that you saw such a high percentage for China in the Q1 sales in particular is because, as you know, we only had 3 EV systems in the total mix. So as a result of that, the China sales as a percentage of the total was so high. But I think that's an anomaly that will rectify itself in the course of the year. So we're still expecting domestic China to grow 20% just as the rest of the customer base.

事實上，克里什，我並不認為中國的發展速度總體上比世界其他國家更快。此外，我們預計今年中國市場的成長率約為 20%，與公司其他部門的成長率相似。所以我認為中國是符合要求的。您之所以看到中國在第一季的銷量中佔比如此之高，是因為如您所知，我們的整體電動車系統只有 3 種。因此，中國銷售額佔總銷售額的比例很高。但我認為，這是一個異常現象，將在一年內得到糾正。因此，我們仍預期中國國內市場將像其他客戶群一樣成長 20%。

And an answer to your question, yes, we do believe that what they're adding in terms of capacity is being used. It's being used for manufacturing. So it's not like they're piling up lithography tools, they're really using these as well.

對於您的問題，答案是肯定的，我們確實相信他們所增加的容量正在被利用。它正被用於製造業。所以，他們不是在堆積光刻工具，而是實際上也在使用這些工具。

Yes. And we can see that just based on the utilization numbers of our machines across the entire installed base is Logic and Memory. It's never been as high as it is now. So if they're stockpiling anything, they're not stockpiling our machines, they're stockpiling semiconductors, which when you look at the shortage and the fact that people are desperately trying to get their hands on mature type of semiconductors, I don't think they're stockpiling anything.

是的。我們可以看到，僅根據整個安裝基座上機器的利用率數字就可以知道邏輯和記憶體。它從來沒有像現在這麼高。因此，如果他們囤積任何東西，他們不是在囤積我們的機器，而是在囤積半導體，當你看到短缺以及人們拼命想要獲得成熟半導體的事實時，我認為他們沒有囤積任何東西。

So it's -- they're being used and that's what we see. As a matter of fact, one of our Chinese customers, big customer told us, "Hey, I'm sold out. I've sold out all the wafers and my -- and the wafer capacity that I'm adding sold out until the end of next year, '23. Not '22, '23."

所以——它們正在被利用，這就是我們所看到的。事實上，我們的一位中國客戶，一位大客戶告訴我們，“嘿，我的晶圓賣完了。我所有的晶圓都賣完了，我新增的晶圓產能也要到明年年底，也就是23年才有。不是22年，而是23年。”

And our next question comes from the line of Adithya Metuku of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Adithya Metuku。

Firstly, again, just to follow up on Krish's question there. You -- when you say you're going to ship -- you see demand for 375 DUV units next year, we're all kind of on the investor side playing these war games around what could happen next year to see demand really go down. And if you look at consensus next year for you, consensus modeling DUV units to decline next year given these concerns around the recession.

首先，再次跟進 Krish 提出的問題。當您說要發貨時，您看到明年對 375 台 DUV 的需求，我們都站在投資者的角度，圍繞明年可能發生的事情進行戰爭遊戲，以看到需求真正下降。如果你看一下明年的共識，考慮到對經濟衰退的擔憂，共識模型顯示明年 DUV 單位數量將會下降。

My view is, even if you saw a demand decline, your customers are unlikely to cut tool orders. But in your view, can you give us some scenario as to what would need to happen for customers to really cut orders for next year given the lead times, et cetera? If you have any color around that, that would be super helpful for investors.

我的觀點是，即使你看到需求下降，你的客戶也不太可能削減工具訂單。但是您認為，考慮到交貨時間等因素，您能否給我們一些情景，說明客戶需要發生什麼情況才會真正削減明年的訂單？如果您對此有任何了解，那將對投資者非常有幫助。

And secondly, I just wondered if you could give us the figure for High-NA EUV tools in your orders this quarter and in the backlog that would be so helpful.

其次，我想知道您是否可以提供本季訂單和積壓訂單中高 NA EUV 工具的數據，這將非常有幫助。

Well, what could happen? If we would do next year, let's say, I think it's going to be over 375 because we're pulling out all the stops, like I said, which will -- that basically be our absolute maximum capacity. I mean, we're doing overtime, hiring people, whatever. There's not only us, it's particularly in the supply chain. So that's where we want to go, yes.

那麼，會發生什麼事呢？如果我們明年這樣做，那麼我認為這個數字將超過 375，因為我們正在竭盡全力，就像我說的，這基本上是我們的最大容量。我的意思是，我們加班、僱人等等。不只是我們，尤其是在供應鏈中。是的，這就是我們想要去的地方。

Now what needs to happen for that demand to go down, the demand for next year is 600 units. So you need to lose 35% to 40% of your demand. And then you hit our capacity, our maximum capacity.

現在需要做什麼才能讓需求下降，明年的需求是 600 台。因此你需要減少 35% 到 40% 的需求。然後你就達到了我們的容量，我們的最大容量。

Now of course, we can all dream up horror scenarios whereby the world collapses and all kinds of crazy things happen, it's -- we'll deal with it when we are there, when it's such a disaster. But for, let's say, a macroeconomic slowdown, well, needs to be significant to take 35% to 40% out of the demand curve. And then we're still shipping more than what we shipped this year.

當然，現在我們都可以想像出可怕的場景，世界崩潰，各種瘋狂的事情發生，當我們在那裡時，當它是一場災難時，我們會處理它。但是，假設宏觀經濟放緩，那麼，需要顯著放緩才能使需求曲線下降 35% 到 40%。而且我們的出貨量仍然比今年多。

So yes, no. And on horror scenarios, I don't know, I'm not the kind of guy that you should ask the question, but probably all the people better suited to do that, but that's the way that I look at the world.

所以是的，不是的。至於恐怖場景，我不知道，我不是那種應該問這個問題的人，但可能所有人都更適合這樣做，但這就是我看待世界的方式。

Whatever. He was just looking at me, but I've not going way in there either. So I will try and give you a non-answer to your question on the High-NA orders, Adi. So we did disclose that we have 5 orders for High-NA 5000, for the 5000 system. That's an R&D system. We've also indicated we have multiple orders for the 5200, and we've also said that we have these orders from 3 Logic customers and 2 Memory customers, and that's really what we can share. Our customers for a host of reasons do not want us to be specific as to the order intake for High-NA for the commercial system. So that's why we stick to this to the labeling it multiple.

任何。他只是看著我，但我也沒有走過去。因此，我會嘗試對您關於高 NA 訂單的問題給出一個非答案，阿迪。因此，我們確實透露，我們有 5 個針對 High-NA 5000 和 5000 系統的訂單。這是一個研發系統。我們也表示我們有多個 5200 的訂單，我們也說過我們有來自 3 個 Logic 客戶和 2 個 Memory 客戶的訂單，這就是我們可以分享的。由於多種原因，我們的客戶不希望我們具體說明商業系統的 High-NA 訂單量。這就是我們堅持將其標記為多個的原因。

Understood. That's very clear. Just a quick clarification on that 375 number. Is that shipments? So will that not be revenue recognized? Will you recognize revenue on all of those tools? Will there be some different...

明白了。這非常清楚。只要簡單澄清一下 375 這個數字。那是出貨嗎？那這不算是確認的收入嗎？您會從所有這些工具中確認收入嗎？會不會有些不一樣...

These are deep UV systems and that generally recognized upon shipment. So I think it's the 375-ish which we're trying to, like I said, to push a bit higher that's on shipments -- revenue, revenue shipments.

這些是深紫外線系統，通常在發貨時即可識別。所以我認為我們正在嘗試將出貨量推高一點，就像我說的，也就是收入、收入出貨量。

I mean if you talk about next year, if you talk about next year, Adi, in all likelihood, you're going to see a bit of a balance in terms of fast ship, right? So at that stage, I think the impact of fast shipments on the delta between output and revenue should be very small.

我的意思是，如果您談論明年，如果您談論明年，阿迪，很有可能，您會看到快速發貨方面的一點平衡，對嗎？因此，在那個階段，我認為快速出貨對產量和收入之間的差異的影響應該非常小。

And our next question comes from the line of CJ Muse at Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 CJ Muse。

I guess first question, it certainly sounds like you're pulling in High-NA or have greater expectations sooner. And so I guess curious, how are you on the supply side ramping optics in particular, particularly given the supply constraints we're seeing on DUV and low NA UV?

我想第一個問題，這聽起來確實像是您正在引入高 NA 或更早地有更高的期望。所以我很好奇，您在供應方面如何提升光學性能，特別是考慮到我們在 DUV 和低 NA UV 方面看到的供應限制？

And then the second part of the question for High-NAs. How are your customer conversations evolving? And do you think we could see high-volume manufacturing insertion as early as 2 nanometer?

然後是有關高 NA 問題的第二部分。您的客戶對話如何發展？您認為我們最早可以在 2 奈米就實現大批量製造嗎？

Yes. I think High-NA, sooner. Generally, that's not the case because it's -- like you pointed out, I mean, it's a supply chain issue. I mean it's a different machine. It's sort of different modules that needs to be built. So this is really focused on executing according to plan, which doesn't give us a lot of room to do more and sooner. So it is really our shipment plan.

是的。我認為 High-NA 會更快。一般來說，情況並非如此，因為——就像你所指出的，這是一個供應鏈問題。我的意思是它是一台不同的機器。它是需要建構的不同模組。因此，這實際上側重於按計劃執行，這並沒有給我們太多空間來做更多、更快的事情。所以這實際上是我們的裝運計劃。

And Roger just talked about the difference between revenue recognition and shipment. But the shipment plan hasn't changed that much because it's all very much linked to the capability of the supply chain to actually forward that. But I think in HVM insertion, we always have 25, 26. I think that's very likely what it's still going to be the case.

羅傑剛才談到了收入確認和發貨之間的差異。但裝運計畫並沒有太大變化，因為這一切都與供應鏈的實際運輸能力息息相關。但我認為在 HVM 插入中，我們總是有 25、26。我認為很可能情況仍然如此。

Now having said that, it could very well be that you see the first 2-nanometer chips being produced in 2025 as a kind of a first set of devices that show the capability. But I think HVM is probably the '25, '26 time frame.

話雖如此，您很可能會將 2025 年生產的首批 2 奈米晶片視為第一批展示該能力的設備。但我認為 HVM 可能是 25、26 年的時間範圍。

Very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. As you contemplate the capacity additions, can you kind of walk us through the impact to your cost structure, both COGS and OpEx?

非常有幫助。然後只是快速的跟進。當您考慮增加產能時，您能否向我們介紹一下這對您的成本結構（包括 COGS 和 OpEx）的影響？

Yes. I think we'll do that in Q4 in a bit more detail. But I think, yes, I mean, we need to -- we, us and our supply chain and especially the supply chain, they need to invest in CapEx. Now CapEx for us is not the major issue in our cost of goods. And I think for our suppliers, they, of course, need CapEx. But I mean, it's CapEx on a higher volume. So I don't think currently, it's a bit early and then would expect big impact on the margins or on cost, Roger?

是的。我認為我們會在第四季度更詳細地討論這個問題。但我認為，是的，我的意思是，我們需要——我們，我們和我們的供應鏈，特別是供應鏈，他們需要投資資本支出。現在，資本支出對我們來說並不是商品成本的主要問題。我認為對於我們的供應商來說，他們當然需要資本支出。但我的意思是，這是更高容量的資本支出。所以我認為現在還為時過早，預計會對利潤或成本產生很大影響，羅傑？

No, exactly, CJ. We'll come back to that in Q4 when we talk a little bit more. But to Peter's point, I wouldn't expect a significant impact on the gross margin expectation that we gave for 54% to 56% for 2025. I think it will still be in that ballpark.

不，確切地說，CJ。我們將在第四季再討論這個問題。但正如彼得所說，我預計這不會對我們給出的 2025 年 54% 至 56% 的毛利率預期產生重大影響。我認為它仍將在這個範圍內。

And our next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc of Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的亞歷山大‧彼得 (Aleksander Peterc)。

I'd just like to come back briefly on these numbers you gave us for 2025, the capacity expansion you're looking at. So the 90 EUV and 600 deep UV. Is that your estimate of what unconstrained demand will be by 2025? Is that what the industry needs and you need to guess to an equilibrium between offer and demand or something a bit more reasonable terms of lead times? So in other words, if suppliers come back to you and say, "Yes, this is possible. It's going to be feasible, we can get there." Is that the kind of number you then drive to and that will become your revenue guidance? Or is this too optimistic and we should [cover] that in any way? That's my first question. I have a quick follow-up.

我想簡單回顧一下您提供的 2025 年數據，以及您所考慮的產能擴張。因此是 90 EUV 和 600 深 UV。這是您對 2025 年無約束需求的估計嗎？這是業界所需要的嗎？您需要猜測供需之間的平衡，或者交貨時間方面更合理一些嗎？換句話說，如果供應商回覆你說：「是的，這是可能的。這將是可行的，我們就能做到。」這是您力求達到的數字嗎？這是否會成為您的收入指導？或者這太樂觀了，我們應該以任何方式來掩蓋這一點？這是我的第一個問題。我有一個快速的後續行動。

I'm probably going to answer that question for the third time. But I think it's basically what we feel the capacity is needed to actually be available in 2025 for the rest of the decade. Now if for whatever reason, the demand that we could see today and for next year would still be the same demand as we see -- that we would see in 2025, we would need it in 2025 to actually ship, but that we don't know that. I mean this is really driven by how the market is by 2025. It could be -- it's the same as it is today. It could be higher, it could be lower. We don't know that yet, but this is definitely something which we are going to discuss in Q4 where we show you a couple of scenarios where we can show that this could happen. If this happens, then you would see that result. If that happens, you would see a different result.

我可能要第三次回答這個問題。但我認為，這基本上就是我們認為在 2025 年之前為未來十年實際提供的容量。現在，無論出於何種原因，我們今天看到的需求和明年的需求仍然與我們在 2025 年看到的需求相同，我們需要在 2025 年真正發貨，但我們不知道這一點。我的意思是，這實際上是由 2025 年的市場狀況決定的。它可能與今天一樣。它可能更高，也可能更低。我們還不知道，但這肯定是我們將在第四季度討論的事情，屆時我們將向您展示幾個可以證明這種情況可能發生的場景。如果發生這種情況，那麼您就會看到那個結果。如果發生這種情況，你會看到不同的結果。

But it's really about the capacity buildup. So it's not that we are saying, well, the unconstrained demand for 2025 on us is 600 DPV and 90 EUV. We will have the capacity there that if that would be the case, we could do it, but we don't know whether it's going to be the case, but we definitely need it. We definitely need it for the second half of this decade given the growth of our customers. And let's keep our fingers crossed and see what 2025 brings us.

但這其實與產能建設有關。因此，我們並不是說，2025 年我們的無約束需求是 600 DPV 和 90 EUV。如果情況確實如此，我們有能力做到，但我們不知道是否會發生這種情況，但我們肯定需要它。考慮到客戶數量的成長，我們在未來五年肯定需要它。讓我們祈禱，看看 2025 年會為我們帶來什麼。

Okay. That's very clear. And just a quick follow-up just on 3D DRAM. In light of the multiple orders you now get from DRAM customers, not just 1 but 2 customers now, could you share your thoughts on the potential timing of 3D DRAM and that 2025 number we saw being branded about? Is that now a clear indication that's actually happening or later?

好的。這非常清楚。接下來我們來快速了解一下 3D DRAM。鑑於您現在從 DRAM 客戶那裡獲得的多個訂單（不只是 1 個客戶，而是 2 個客戶），您能否分享您對 3D DRAM 的潛在時機以及我們看到的 2025 年數字的看法？這是否清楚地表明這實際上正在發生，還是稍後才會發生？

Well, I think we've made a point a couple of times. 3D DRAM is an option. We think it's not going to be 2025. It is an option. It could hit somewhere in the second half of this decade. But we also know, and we know that because our customers are telling us this, and actually, our customers are telling this in a public way, that whatever their road map is, what is clear is that EUV and High-NA has a particularly important role to play in that road map. And the latest, very clear and public data point, and that was Samsung at their conference in November of last year, where they clearly demonstrated that EUV was there, was on their road map for the next 10 to 15 years. That's what they indicated. They said even to go to DRAM, I think it was 8 nanometers or 5 nanometer that I talked about, less than 5 nanometers. They need EUV and High-NA in order to get there.

嗯，我想我們已經多次強調這一點。 3D DRAM 是一種選擇。我們認為這不會是 2025 年。這只是一個選擇。它可能會在本世紀下半葉的某個時候發生。但我們也知道，因為我們的客戶告訴我們這一點，實際上，我們的客戶以公開的方式告訴我們這一點，無論他們的路線圖是什麼，很明顯的是，EUV 和高 NA 在該路線圖中發揮著特別重要的作用。最新的、非常清晰和公開的數據點是三星在去年 11 月的會議上明確表示，EUV 已經出現在他們的未來 10 到 15 年的路線圖上。他們就是這麼表示的。他們說即使要採用 DRAM，我認為我所說的是 8 奈米或 5 奈米，低於 5 奈米。他們需要 EUV 和 High-NA 才能實現這一目標。

So that's what's important to us. That's what's driving our road map also on the -- on Memory. Could that go in conjunction with 3D DRAM? It's possible, but it will be always a combination. That's what our customers are telling us and that's what we stick by.

這對我們來說很重要。這也是我們關於記憶的路線圖的驅動力。它能與 3D DRAM 結合使用嗎？這是有可能的，但總是需要組合。這就是我們的客戶告訴我們的，也是我們堅持的。

Our next question comes from the line of Rolf Bulk at New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Rolf Bulk。

I had a question on your Memory business. The order intake of memory in the quarter was again very strong, close to EUR 2.4 billion. And I was wondering, can you talk about what is driving this order flow? Is that NAND or DRAM? And is it primarily for capacity being added this year and next? Or is a large component also EUV and High-NA orders for long-term capacity additions?

我對您的內存業務有一個疑問。本季記憶體訂單量再次非常強勁，接近 24 億歐元。我想知道，您能談談推動這項訂單流的因素嗎？那是 NAND 還是 DRAM？這主要是為了今年和明年增加產能嗎？或者大型組件也是 EUV 和 High-NA 訂單，用於長期增加產能？

Yes. I think it's largely these capacity additions in Memory are for current capacity demand. I mean, like I said earlier, the utilization of our machines in the memory space is very, very high. So we even say it's the highest point ever. So if there's a high-teens, 20% bit growth number expected for this year, you just need to add capacity. So I think the bulk of what you're seeing there is just to add capacity.

是的。我認為記憶體中的這些容量增加主要是為了滿足當前的容量需求。我的意思是，就像我之前說的，我們的機器在記憶體空間的使用率非常非常高。所以我們甚至說這是有史以​​來的最高點。因此，如果預計今年的位數成長率將達到 20% 左右，那麼您只需要增加容量。所以我認為你所看到的大部分只是為了增加容量。

And yes, there will some of it will be higher, so you will -- that's not translated into an immediately bit capacity. But with EUV, it is, because don't forget, EUV is now HVM technology also in DRAM. So most of it, the vast majority of it is for current capacity additions, which I fully understand when I look at the utilization rates.

是的，有些會更高，所以你——這不會立即轉化為位元容量。但有了 EUV，情況就不同了，因為別忘了，EUV 現在也是 DRAM 中的 HVM 技術。因此，其中大部分，絕大多數都是為了增加當前的產能，當我看到利用率時，我完全理解這一點。

And as an unrelated follow-up, if I may, could you please give us an update on your EUV service business? How large is the business today on a run rate basis? And what growth do you expect this year? And also, where do you stand on gross margins versus the corporate averages?

作為無關的後續問題，如果可以的話，您能否向我們介紹您的 EUV 服務業務的最新情況？以運行率計算，目前業務規模有多大？您預計今年的成長會是多少？另外，您的毛利率與公司平均值相比如何？

Yes. So the EUV service business is around EUR 1 billion this year. And the gross margin, we talked about gross margin in the past. So gross margin was around 30% last year. We think it's going to be around 35% this year. We talked at the beginning of the conference of this call, we also talked about some pressure on labor cost. So obviously, that's heading us also a little bit on the service side. But still, we believe 35% gross margin is possible this year. And as we said before, we're trying to get to approximately 55% in the '24, '25 time frame. That's the trajectory that we're on.

是的。因此今年的EUV服務業務規模約為10億歐元。至於毛利率，我們過去曾討論過毛利率。因此去年的毛利率約為30％。我們認為今年這一比例將在 35% 左右。我們在這次電話會議開始時也談到了一些勞動成本的壓力。顯然，這對我們服務方面也有一定指導作用。但我們仍然相信今年的毛利率有可能達到 35%。正如我們之前所說，我們試圖在 24、25 年的時間範圍內達到約 55% 的目標。這就是我們所走的軌跡。

And our next question comes from Houri of ODDO BHF.

下一個問題來自 ODDO BHF 的 Houri。

Yes. Actually, I would like to ask a question again about the -- your supplier to really understand what you are talking about when you say you are discussing with them. Does it mean that they are all okay to increase their capacities? And if you're -- and you're just talking about the way to do it? Or if there is some discussions to be held about the possibility to raise their capacities?

是的。實際上，我想再次問一個關於您的供應商的問題，以便真正理解當您說您正在與他們討論時您在說什麼。是不是說他們都可以提升自己的能力了？如果您—您只是在談論如何做到這一點？或者是否有可能就提高其能力進行一些討論？

No, I think we just had our, let's say, supplier day a couple of weeks ago and was very clear that all our suppliers confirmed that they said this is the target that we should go for. It's really a matter of them creating the executable plans to actually get to that capacity number by the time frame that we asked.

不，我想我們幾週前剛剛舉辦了供應商日，並且非常清楚我們所有的供應商都確認這是我們應該追求的目標。這實際上就是他們制定可執行計劃以在我們要求的時間範圍內真正達到該容量數字的問題。

And that has to do with the plans that they need to make to build square meters, to build factories to hire people, to order specialized machinery. That needs all confirmation in their supply chain. So it's a supply chain of the supply chain. They need to find the builders. They need to get the square meters. They need to get the permits.

這與他們需要製定的建設平方米、建造工廠、僱用人員、訂購專用機械的計劃有關。這需要其供應鏈中的所有確認。所以它是供應鏈的供應鏈。他們需要找到建築商。他們需要獲得平方米。他們需要獲得許可證。

So just a very practical stuff that if you want to expand capacity, how quickly can you do that? And what are the normal, let's say, business hurdles that you would have to pass in order to make sure that, that happens. This is the type of discussion that we're having. And this is -- that's basically -- all these things are gating the conformation.

所以這是一個非常實際的問題，如果你想擴大容量，你能多快做到？那麼，為了確保實現這一點，您必須克服哪些正常的商業障礙？這就是我們正在進行的討論類型。這就是 — — 這基本上就是 — — 所有這些事情都在控制著構象。

So they work on this and they will get -- as we go along over the next couple of months, quarters, they will get all the confirmations and say, yes, we can do it. Probably not 100%, but 90% or 85%, yes, we can do it, and then will probably confirm that --- not very likely, will confirm that to us and says, yes, we're going to be there at that point in time when you need us. That's the situation.

所以他們致力於此，並且會得到——隨著我們在接下來的幾個月、幾個季度繼續推進，他們會得到所有的確認，並說，是的，我們可以做到。可能不是 100%，但 90% 或 85%，是的，我們可以做到，然後可能會確認——不太可能，會向我們確認，並說，是的，當您需要我們時，我們會在那裡。情況就是這樣。

Okay. And on your side, can you communicate already on the cost of such an expansion?

好的。能否告知此次擴張的成本是多少？

I think most of the cost will be in the supply chain. I think, our CapEx is -- our CapEx on the balance sheet, it's roughly 10% of the total balance sheet. I mean, it's not huge. So yes, it's a big number. But when you look at the size of the company, it's not the biggest cost item. It's in the supply chain. So I think it won't be an issue for us. And I think when you look at the upside opportunity of having an extra capacity and the forecasted growth, then it's a relatively fast payback time.

我認為大部分成本都發生在供應鏈中。我認為，我們的資本支出——資產負債表上的資本支出大約佔總資產負債表的 10%。我的意思是，它不是很大。是的，這是一個很大的數字。但當你考慮到公司的規模時，這並不是最大的成本項目。它位於供應鏈中。所以我認為這對我們來說不是問題。我認為，當你看到額外產能和預測成長的上升機會時，回報時間就會相對較快。

All right. Sorry. We have time for one last question, and I apologize for technical difficulties at the start of this Q&A. If you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Now operator, may we have the last caller, please?

好的。對不起。我們還有時間回答最後一個問題，對於本次問答開始時遇到的技術問題，我深感抱歉。如果您無法接通本次電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。接線生，請問我們可以接聽最後一位來電嗎？

And that will be Francois-Xavier Bouvignies from UBS.

這位嘉賓是瑞銀集團的 Francois-Xavier Bouvignies。

I just have maybe 2 quick ones. One is on the -- basically, you work out dealing with your suppliers. You mentioned, Peter, that you don't bear a lot of cost to add capacity, but these suppliers will probably have a lot of risk or more risk to you than you in terms of balance sheet and under (inaudible) charges and you want to build this capacity well ahead of time for the second decade.

我大概只有 2 個快速的。一是——基本上，你要與你的供應商打交道。彼得，您提到，您不需要承擔增加產能的大量成本，但這些供應商在資產負債表和（聽不清楚）費用方面可能會給您帶來很大風險或更多風險，並且您希望在第二個十年之前就建立這種產能。

So my question is, do you expect to share somewhat the risk of the investment with your suppliers somehow, I mean, with maybe a payment or anything like that we should expect to help your suppliers to get to this kind of level and bear the risk of overcapacity?

所以我的問題是，您是否希望以某種方式與您的供應商分擔投資風險，我的意思是，透過付款或類似方式，我們應該期望幫助您的供應商達到這種水平並承擔產能過剩的風險？

And the second one is you talk about suppliers, but what about the peers, your peers as well? It seems that your capacity expansion is quite big, at least since last year. Do you expect the peers for other parts of the supply chain to increase as much? Is there a risk here that you build too much and the others don't, and therefore, you can't unlock this value?

第二個問題是，您談到了供應商，但同行，您的同行呢？看起來你們的產能擴張相當大，至少從去年開始是這樣。您是否預期供應鏈其他部分的同業也會有同樣的成長？這裡是否存在風險，即您建造太多而其他人沒有建造，因此您無法釋放這個價值？

Yes. On the first question, yes, I mean, we've done that in the past also. I mean if a supplier, let's take ZEISS, for instance, it comes to us and says, hey, can you do some shared risk investment and it goes beyond what you would say, the let's say, average or normal financial capabilities of that supply. We have done that in the past and we will do it again.

是的。關於第一個問題，是的，我的意思是，我們過去也這樣做過。我的意思是，如果一個供應商，例如蔡司，來找我們說，嘿，你能做一些共擔風險的投資嗎？而且這超出了你所說的，比如說，該供應商的平均或正常的財務能力。我們過去曾經這樣做過，而且還會再這樣做。

Having said that, over the last 10 years, our supply base has actually grown quite significantly also in terms of size and in terms of financial capability. So I think it's going to be limited, but if it's needed, it's needed and we'll do it. So I don't think it's going to be a major issue. So risk sharing is in our genes. So that's not the point. On the peers, we're coming out because our capacity lead times are probably the longest in the industry. So we go first. And I would expect our peers, if we do that, then the market is there and we believe the market is going to be there, they will follow. It's that simple.

話雖如此，在過去的十年裡，我們的供應基礎在規模和財務能力方面實際上也有了相當大的成長。所以我認為這會受到限制，但如果需要，那就需要，我們就會去做。所以我不認為這會是一個大問題。因此，風險共擔已融入我們的基因中。所以這不是重點。在同行中，我們脫穎而出，因為我們的產能交付週期可能是業內最長的。所以我們先走。我希望我們的同行，如果我們這樣做，那麼市場就會存在，我們相信市場將會存在，他們也會跟著做。就這麼簡單。

All right. Now on behalf of ASML, I would like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thank you.

好的。現在，我謹代表 ASML 感謝大家今天的參加。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes the ASML Q1 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。 ASML 2022 年第一季財務業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。