艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML Q4 and Full Year 2021 Financial Results. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。歡迎閱讀 ASML 第四季度和 2021 年全年財務業績。 （操作員說明）

I would now like you to turn over to the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在希望您將電話會議轉交給 Skip Miller 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen.

謝謝你，接線員。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是 ASML 的首席執行官 Peter Wennink；和我們的首席財務官 Roger Dassen。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2021 fourth quarter and full year results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2021 年第四季度和全年業績。此電話的長度為 60 分鐘，問題將按照收到的順序進行處理。該電話也通過互聯網在 asml.com 上進行直播。

A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

本次電話會議結束後不久，我們的網站上將提供管理層的開幕致辭和電話會議的重播。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理層在本次電話會議期間發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。對於風險因素的討論，我鼓勵您查看我們網站 asml.com 上的今天新聞稿和演示文稿中包含的安全港聲明，以及 ASML 提交給證券和交易委員會。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 進行簡要介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full year 2021 results conference call. Of course, I hope all of you and your families are still healthy and safe.

謝謝你，跳過。歡迎大家，感謝您加入我們的 2021 年第四季度和全年業績電話會議。當然，我希望你們所有人和你們的家人仍然健康平安。

Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the fourth quarter and the full year 2021 and as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. And Roger will start with a review of our fourth quarter and full year 2021 financial performance with some added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook.

在我們開始問答環節之前，羅杰和我想對 2021 年第四季度和全年進行概述和一些評論，並提供我們對未來幾個季度的看法。羅傑將首先回顧我們第四季度和 2021 年全年的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表一些補充意見，我將在介紹結束時對當前的商業環境和我們未來的商業前景發表一些補充意見。

Roger, if you will?

羅傑，你願意嗎？

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the fourth quarter and full year financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the first quarter of 2022.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第四季度和全年的財務業績，然後為 2022 年第一季度提供指導。

Net sales came in within guidance at EUR 5 billion. The effects of the logistics center startup and supply chain issues communicated during our Q3 results is a bit longer than expected to resolve, affecting some deep UV shipments in Q4.

淨銷售額在 50 億歐元的指導範圍內。我們在第三季度的業績中傳達的物流中心啟動和供應鏈問題的影響比預期的要解決的時間要長一些，影響了第四季度的一些深紫外出貨量。

In order to address our customers' need for additional capacity, we completed an increased number of productivity upgrades in Q4 as a way to provide them with incremental productivity enhancement.

為了滿足客戶對額外容量的需求，我們在第四季度完成了更多的生產力升級，以此為他們提供增量生產力增強。

We shipped 12 EUV systems and recognized EUR 1.6 billion of revenue from 11 EUV systems this quarter. Net system sales of EUR 3.5 billion was again more weighted towards Logic at 73% with the remaining 27% from Memory.

本季度我們出貨了 12 個 EUV 系統，並確認了 11 個 EUV 系統的 16 億歐元收入。 35 億歐元的系統淨銷售額再次以 73% 的比重來自邏輯，其餘 27% 來自內存。

Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.5 billion, significantly above guidance, primarily due to the software upgrades. As just mentioned, in this strong demand environment, customers continue to use productivity upgrades to increase output of their installed base.

本季度安裝基礎管理的銷售額為 15 億歐元，顯著高於預期，這主要是由於軟件升級。如前所述，在這種強勁的需求環境中，客戶繼續使用生產力升級來增加其安裝基礎的產量。

Gross margin for the quarter was 54.2% and was above guidance, primarily driven by higher software productivity upgrades.

本季度毛利率為 54.2%，高於預期，主要受軟件生產力升級的推動。

On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 681 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 203 million, which was slightly above guidance. In Q4, we had other income of EUR 214 million related to the sale of the non-semiconductor businesses of Berliner Glas. Net income in Q4 was EUR 1.8 billion, representing 35.6% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 4.39.

在運營費用方面，研發費用為 6.81 億歐元，SG&A 費用為 2.03 億歐元，略高於預期。在第四季度，我們獲得了與出售 Berliner Glas 的非半導體業務相關的 2.14 億歐元的其他收入。第四季度的淨收入為 18 億歐元，占淨銷售額的 35.6%，每股收益為 4.39 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the fourth quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 7.6 billion.

轉向資產負債表。第四季度末，我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資達到 76 億歐元。

Moving to the order book. Q4 net system bookings came in at EUR 7.1 billion, including EUR 2.6 billion for 0.33 NA EUV systems and 1.55 NA EUV systems and EXE:5000 systems.

轉到訂單簿。第四季度淨系統預訂額為 71 億歐元，其中 26 億歐元用於 0.33 NA EUV 系統和 1.55 NA EUV 系統和 EXE:5000 系統。

Order intake was strong from both deep UV and EUV, largely driven by Logic with 77% of the bookings and Memory accounted for the remaining 23%.

深紫外光和極紫外光的訂單量都很強勁，主要由 Logic 推動，佔訂單的 77%，而 Memory 佔剩餘的 23%。

For the full year, net sales grew 33% to EUR 18.6 billion. EUV system sales in 2021 was EUR 6.3 billion, which is a 41% increase from last year. We achieved 50% EUV growth margin systems on the systems in 2021 and continued to improve EUV service margin. Non-EUV system sales in 2021 was EUR 7.4 billion, which is a 26% increase from last year.

全年淨銷售額增長 33% 至 186 億歐元。 2021 年 EUV 系統銷售額為 63 億歐元，比去年增長 41%。 2021年我們在系統上實現了50%的EUV增長邊際系統，並持續提升EUV服務邊際。 2021 年非 EUV 系統銷售額為 74 億歐元，比去年增長 26%。

On the market segments for 2021. Logic system revenue was EUR 9.6 billion, which is a 30% increase from last year. Memory system revenue was EUR 4.1 billion, which is a 39% increase from last year.

在 2021 年的細分市場上。邏輯系統收入為 96 億歐元，比去年增長 30%。內存系統收入為 41 億歐元，比去年增長 39%。

Installed Base Management sales was EUR 5 billion, which is a 35% increase compared to previous year. In 2021, we had total bookings of EUR 26.2 billion, more than 2x increase year-on-year, reflecting customers' strong demand for EUV and deep UV technology.

Installed Base Management 銷售額為 50 億歐元，與上一年相比增長了 35%。 2021 年，我們的總預訂量為 262 億歐元，同比增長 2 倍以上，反映了客戶對 EUV 和深紫外技術的強勁需求。

Our R&D spending increased to EUR 2.5 billion in 2021 as we continue to invest in innovation across our product portfolio. Overall, R&D investments as a percentage of 2021 sales was about 14%. SG&A was about 4% of sales. Net income for the full year was EUR 5.9 billion, 31.6% of net sales, resulting in an EPS of EUR 14.36.

隨著我們繼續投資於產品組合的創新，我們的研發支出在 2021 年增加到 25 億歐元。總體而言，研發投資佔 2021 年銷售額的百分比約為 14%。 SG&A 約佔銷售額的 4%。全年淨收入為 59 億歐元，占淨銷售額的 31.6%，每股收益為 14.36 歐元。

Improvements in working capital contributed to a free cash flow generation of EUR 9.9 billion for 2021, mainly driven by customer down payments following the very significant order intake this year. We continue to invest in support of our road map and planned capacity ramp. Excess cash will be returned as per our policy.

營運資本的改善促成了 2021 年 99 億歐元的自由現金流，這主要是由於今年收到大量訂單後客戶預付定金。我們將繼續投資以支持我們的路線圖和計劃的產能提升。多餘的現金將根據我們的政策退還。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the first quarter of 2022. We expect Q1 total net sales to be between EUR 3.3 billion and EUR 3.5 billion. Lower guidance relative to Q4 is primarily due to a number of so-called fast shipments. These are shipments in the quarter for both EUV and deep UV, that will not complete factory acceptance testing. As we've discussed in prior quarters, fast shipments are in support of customers' desire to bring systems into production as quickly as possible. By skipping some of these testing in our factory, we can shorten the cycle time.

有了這個，我想轉向我們對 2022 年第一季度的預期。我們預計第一季度的總淨銷售額將在 33 億歐元至 35 億歐元之間。相對於第四季度的較低指導主要是由於一些所謂的快速出貨。這些是本季度 EUV 和深 UV 的出貨量，尚未完成工廠驗收測試。正如我們在前幾個季度所討論的那樣，快速發貨是為了滿足客戶盡快將系統投入生產的願望。通過跳過我們工廠中的一些測試，我們可以縮短週期時間。

Final testing and formal acceptance then takes place at the customer site at which time we will recognize revenue. The value of the Q1 shipments is expected to be between EUR 5.3 billion and EUR 5.5 billion, which means approximately EUR 3 billion of revenue is expected to be deferred to subsequent quarters.

然後在客戶現場進行最終測試和正式驗收，屆時我們將確認收入。第一季度的出貨價值預計在 53 億歐元至 55 億歐元之間，這意味著大約 30 億歐元的收入預計將推遲到後續季度。

We expect our Q1 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 1.2 billion. Gross margin for Q1 is expected to be around 49%. The lower gross margin quarter-on-quarter is primarily due to the fast shipment impact of delayed revenues and lower upgrade business compared to last quarter. The expected R&D expenses for Q1 are around EUR 760 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at around EUR 210 million.

我們預計我們的第一季度安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 12 億歐元。第一季度的毛利率預計在 49% 左右。毛利率環比下降主要是由於與上一季度相比，延遲收入和升級業務下降對出貨量的快速影響。第一季度的預期研發費用約為 7.6 億歐元，SG&A 預計約為 2.1 億歐元。

Our estimated 2022 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 15% and 16%. Regarding our capital return, ASML paid total dividends of EUR 1.4 billion in 2021, made up of the 2020 final dividend and the 2021 interim dividend.

我們預計 2022 年的年化有效稅率預計在 15% 至 16% 之間。關於我們的資本回報，ASML 在 2021 年支付了 14 億歐元的總股息，包括 2020 年末期股息和 2021 年中期股息。

ASML intends to declare a total dividend with respect to 2021 of EUR 5.50 per ordinary share. Recognizing the interim dividend of EUR 1.80 per ordinary share paid in November 2021. This leads to a final dividend proposal to the general meeting of EUR 3.70 per ordinary share. Total 2021 dividend is a 100% increase compared to the 2020 dividend. The 2022 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders will take place on April 29, 2022, in Veldhoven.

ASML 打算在 2021 年宣布每股普通股 5.50 歐元的總股息。確認 2021 年 11 月支付的每股普通股 1.80 歐元的中期股息。這導致向股東大會提出每股普通股 3.70 歐元的末期股息提案。與 2020 年的股息相比，2021 年的總股息增加了 100%。 2022 年年度股東大會將於 2022 年 4 月 29 日在 Veldhoven 舉行。

2021 was a rather exceptional year in terms of share buyback. ASML acquired 14.4 million shares for a total amount of EUR 8.6 billion as part of our current and previous program.

就股票回購而言，2021 年是相當特殊的一年。作為我們當前和之前計劃的一部分，ASML 以 86 億歐元的總金額收購了 1440 萬股股票。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

有了這個，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, we had another record year of both sales and profit. We're seeing unprecedented customer demand across all market segments from both advanced and mature nodes, driving demand across our entire product portfolio.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的那樣，我們的銷售額和利潤再創歷史新高。我們看到來自先進和成熟節點的所有細分市場的客戶需求空前，推動了我們整個產品組合的需求。

Looking to 2022, after a lower Q1 revenue due to Q1 fast shipments, as highlighted by Roger, we expect a significant increase in revenue for the remaining quarters. For the full year, we expect a net sales increase of around 20% compared to 2021. And bear in mind that this 20% sales growth does not include revenue from 6 EUV fast shipments in Q4 2022. And if you would take the full shipments value of the 6 EUV fast shipments into account, the growth percentage would have been 25%.

展望 2022 年，由於第一季度快速出貨導致第一季度收入下降，正如 Roger 所強調的那樣，我們預計剩餘季度的收入將大幅增長。全年，我們預計與 2021 年相比，淨銷售額將增長 20% 左右。請記住，這 20% 的銷售額增長不包括 2022 年第四季度 6 個 EUV 快速出貨的收入。考慮到 6 個 EUV 快速出貨量的價值，增長率為 25%。

For our EUV business, we still expect to ship around 55 systems of which we expect revenue from 6 systems to be deferred to 2023 due to fast shipments. This translates to an expected EUV system revenue of around EUR 7.8 billion in 2022.

對於我們的 EUV 業務，我們仍預計將出貨約 55 個系統，由於出貨快，我們預計 6 個系統的收入將推遲到 2023 年。這意味著 2022 年 EUV 系統的預期收入約為 78 億歐元。

In our deep UV and applications business, we expect growth in both immersion and dry systems, as well as continued demand for metrology and inspection systems. We're also planning fast shipments for some deep UV systems, but we do not expect this to impact our 2022 revenue due to inherently shorter installation times for deep UV. We expect revenue growth of over 20% to non-EUV system revenue.

在我們的深紫外和應用業務中，我們預計浸入式和乾式系統的增長以及對計量和檢測系統的持續需求。我們還計劃快速發貨一些深紫外線系統，但由於深紫外線的安裝時間固有地較短，我們預計這不會影響我們 2022 年的收入。我們預計非 EUV 系統收入的收入增長將超過 20%。

For the Installed Base Management business, service revenue will continue to scale with the growing installed base of systems. And customers will continue to look at all methods to add wafer capacity. And although we saw upgrades pulled into 2021 to improve wafer output capability at our customers, we expect those type of installed base options to also stay very much in demand this year. We currently expect 2022 installed base revenue to be up around 10% year-on-year.

對於安裝基礎管理業務，服務收入將隨著系統安裝基礎的增長而繼續擴大。客戶將繼續關注所有增加晶圓產能的方法。儘管我們看到升級到 2021 年以提高我們客戶的晶圓輸出能力，但我們預計這些類型的安裝基礎選項今年也將保持很大的需求。我們目前預計 2022 年安裝基礎收入將同比增長約 10%。

Looking at the market segments, given the very strong demand situation and our continued push to increase capacity, we see growth in both Logic and Memory in 2022.

縱觀細分市場，鑑於非常強勁的需求形勢以及我們繼續推動增加產能，我們預計 2022 年邏輯和內存都將增長。

In Logic, we've talked for some time now about the digital transformation that is underway as we move to a more connected world. The growing application space and secular growth drivers translated very strong demand for both advanced and mature nodes. With this continued strong demand, we expect Logic system revenue to be up more than 20% year-on-year.

在 Logic 中，我們已經討論了一段時間以來隨著我們轉向一個更加互聯的世界而正在進行的數字化轉型。不斷增長的應用空間和長期增長驅動力轉化為對先進和成熟節點的強勁需求。由於需求持續強勁，我們預計 Logic 系統收入將同比增長 20% 以上。

In Memory, we also expect to see continued growth of our business this year. With customer expectations of DRAM bit growth in the high teens this year and lithography tool utilization running at very high levels, customers need to add capacity in addition to planned technology transitions to meet demand. As DRAM customers migrate to more advanced nodes, we also expect to see an interest in EUV demand for Memory. We expect the 2022 Memory system revenue to be up around 25% year-on-year.

在內存方面，我們還預計今年我們的業務將繼續增長。由於客戶對今年 DRAM 位增長的期望很高，而且光刻工具的利用率非常高，除了計劃的技術轉型之外，客戶還需要增加產能以滿足需求。隨著 DRAM 客戶遷移到更先進的節點，我們也預計會對內存的 EUV 需求產生興趣。我們預計 2022 年內存系統收入將同比增長 25% 左右。

With this unprecedented demand exceeding our capacity, we are ramping our output capability to meet the strong demand. Of course, this comes with challenges, and we're even more vulnerable when running at maximum capacity is there is little room for recovery when things don't turn out as planned. And COVID, unfortunately, is now behind us, and it impacts everyone, including the workforce in our industry and in the supply chain.

由於這種前所未有的需求超出了我們的能力，我們正在提高我們的輸出能力以滿足強勁的需求。當然，這也帶來了挑戰，當事情沒有按計劃發展時，我們在以最大容量運行時更加脆弱，幾乎沒有恢復的空間。不幸的是，COVID 現在已經落後於我們，它影響到每個人，包括我們行業和供應鏈中的勞動力。

We also have to work through supply chain challenges of material and component shortages and COVID-related supply chain disruptions. In our workforce, we have hired a significant number of people throughout last year. And although we are currently at our planned workforce FTE numbers, they still need to be trained and brought up to the learning curve.

我們還必須應對材料和組件短缺以及與 COVID 相關的供應鏈中斷等供應鏈挑戰。在我們的員工隊伍中，我們在去年全年僱傭了很多人。儘管我們目前處於計劃中的勞動力 FTE 數量，但他們仍然需要接受培訓並適應學習曲線。

All of what I just mentioned needs maximum management retention and monitoring, creativity and flexibility of all our partners and stakeholders.

我剛才提到的所有內容都需要我們所有合作夥伴和利益相關者的最大程度的管理保留和監控、創造力和靈活性。

We are working closely with our customers to address these challenges. We're doing fast shipments, skipping some of the testing at factory and completing the final acceptance testing at the customer site, which provides more capacity as quickly as possible. This reduces cycle time in our factory and frees up cabin space in our cleanroom so we can ramp up capacity more quickly. In addition, we continue to provide software upgrades, which will give our customers more capacity.

我們正與客戶密切合作以應對這些挑戰。我們正在快速發貨，跳過工廠的一些測試並在客戶現場完成最終驗收測試，從而盡快提供更多容量。這減少了我們工廠的周期時間，並釋放了我們潔淨室的機艙空間，因此我們可以更快地提高產能。此外，我們繼續提供軟件升級，這將為我們的客戶提供更多容量。

As I said before, we're doing our utmost to respond as best as we can to external challenges during COVID-related absenteeism and material shortages in our supply chain.

正如我之前所說，在與 COVID 相關的曠工和供應鏈中的材料短缺期間，我們正在盡最大努力應對外部挑戰。

Also, as we reported earlier in January, we had a fire just after the New Year inside a part of our factory in Berlin. The fire was extinguished during the night and fortunately, no persons were injured during this incident. But the fire occurred in a part of one production building on the site in Berlin and the smoke partly impacted an adjacent building. We've been able to resume production in parts of this building already, and the other buildings on the site have not been affected and are fully operational.

此外，正如我們在一月份早些時候報導的那樣，新年剛過，我們柏林工廠的一部分內發生了火災。大火在夜間被撲滅，幸運的是，這次事件中沒有人員受傷。但火災發生在柏林現場的一棟生產大樓的一部分，煙霧部分影響了相鄰的大樓。我們已經能夠在這棟大樓的部分地區恢復生產，現場的其他大樓沒有受到影響，並且可以全面投入使用。

The manufacturing of deep UV components have been restarted. And although there was some disruption regarding components for deep UV, we expect to remediate this in such a way that it will not affect our output and revenue plan for deep UV.

深紫外組件的製造已重新啟動。儘管深紫外線組件存在一些中斷，但我們希望以不會影響我們的深紫外線產量和收入計劃的方式進行補救。

And as to EUV, the fire affected part of the production area of the wafer clamp, which is a module in our EUV systems. Based on our current insights, we believe we can manage the consequences of this fire without significant impact on our EUV system output in 2022.

至於 EUV，火災影響了晶圓夾具的部分生產區域，這是我們 EUV 系統中的一個模塊。根據我們目前的見解，我們相信我們可以管理這場火災的後果，而不會對我們 2022 年的 EUV 系統輸出產生重大影響。

Overall, while it's also a very unfortunate event, we're optimistic about the current situation and are very grateful for the enormous efforts and creativity of our Berlin staff.

總的來說，雖然這也是一個非常不幸的事件，但我們對目前的情況持樂觀態度，並非常感謝柏林員工的巨大努力和創造力。

On High-NA EUV, we're currently building the first High-NA system in our new cleanroom in Veldhoven. We received an order for an EXE:5000 in Q4, the fifth order in total for the EXE:5000 model, which provides order coverage for planned High-NA shipments in 2024.

在 High-NA EUV 上，我們目前正在 Veldhoven 的新潔淨室中構建第一個 High-NA 系統。我們在第四季度收到了一份 EXE:5000 的訂單，這是 EXE:5000 型號的第五份訂單，它為 2024 年計劃的高 NA 出貨提供了訂單保障。

In addition, at the beginning of this year, we received the first order for the EXE:5200. EXE:5200 is ASML's next model High-NA system, which we intend to launch in 2024 after the introduction of our first High-NA system. The EXE:5200 will provide the next step for lithography performance and productivity. Demand continues to be extremely strong even to the point where we believe we are also this year falling significantly short of the customer demand.

此外，今年年初，我們收到了 EXE:5200 的第一筆訂單。 EXE:5200 是 ASML 的下一代高 NA 系統，我們計劃在推出我們的第一個高 NA 系統後於 2024 年推出。 EXE:5200 將進一步提高光刻性能和生產力。需求仍然非常強勁，甚至到了我們認為今年我們也大大低於客戶需求的地步。

Looking beyond 2022, global megatrends, we talked about at Investor Day, broadening in the application space and fueling demand for advanced and mature nodes. Growth in semiconductor end markets and increasingly higher lithography intensity, driving demand for our products and services. We, along with our supply chain partners are actively adding and improving significant system build capacity to meet future customer demand. In short, we are even more confident in our long-term growth opportunities.

展望 2022 年之後的全球大趨勢，我們在投資者日談到了應用空間的拓寬和對先進和成熟節點的需求。半導體終端市場的增長和越來越高的光刻強度，推動了對我們產品和服務的需求。我們和我們的供應鏈合作夥伴正在積極增加和改進重要的系統構建能力，以滿足未來的客戶需求。簡而言之，我們對我們的長期增長機會更有信心。

With that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Operator, can we have your final instructions and then the first question, please.

謝謝你，羅杰和彼得。接線員將立即指導您問答環節的協議。 （操作員說明）操作員，請給我們您的最後說明，然後是第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

Curious on the DUV side, demand that you're forecasting for 2022 is maybe quite a bit stronger than we had initially anticipated. How do we think about the 20% growth in the context of the capacity that you and your supply chain are adding relative to, I think in the past, you were talking about hopefully trying to build some inventory -- buffer inventory as well this year.

對 DUV 方面感到好奇的是，您預測的 2022 年需求可能比我們最初預期的要強得多。在您和您的供應鏈正在增加的產能的背景下，我們如何看待 20% 的增長？ .

Yes, Joe, it's a good question. And I think it's important to look at the full picture here, including what happened in the last quarter because you might recall that in the last quarter, we were expecting for the full year of deep UV or the non-EUV business, if you want to call it that way, approximately EUR 8.2 billion, that was the expectation we had going into the quarter. And of course, we landed substantially below that. We landed at EUR 7.4 billion. So there was about a EUR 800 million shortfall that we then made up in Q4 with higher EUV sales and higher installed base sales.

是的，喬，這是個好問題。而且我認為在這裡查看全貌很重要，包括上個季度發生的事情，因為您可能還記得上個季度，如果您願意，我們預計全年都有深紫外或非 EUV 業務這麼稱呼它，大約 82 億歐元，這是我們對本季度的預期。當然，我們大大低於這個值。我們以 74 億歐元的價格登陸。因此，我們在第四季度用更高的 EUV 銷售額和更高的安裝基數銷售額彌補了大約 8 億歐元的缺口。

So what we're saying now is that, that EUR 800 million, we're now trying to get that into the plant for this year. And we can do that because, of course, that's the material for that production was, in fact, already produced by the supply chain. So we have the material, so now it's a matter for us within our manufacturing plant here in Veldhoven to get that done.

所以我們現在要說的是，這 8 億歐元，我們現在正努力將其用於今年的工廠。我們可以做到這一點，因為當然，那是用於生產的材料，事實上，供應鏈已經生產了。所以我們有材料，所以現在我們需要在 Veldhoven 的製造工廠內完成這項工作。

And if you then do the math, right? So we told you last year that we believe we were going to be kind of flat year-on-year for deep UV. That was under the expectation that last year was going to be EUR 8.2 billion. So it's EUR 8.2 billion this year plus the EUR 800 million that you kind of transitioned from last year, that gets you to about the EUR 9 billion that you get to when you add the 20% to last year.

如果你然後做數學，對吧？所以我們去年告訴過你，我們相信深紫外線的同比增長將持平。這低於去年的 82 億歐元的預期。因此，今年是 82 億歐元，加上您從去年過渡的 8 億歐元，當您將去年的 20% 加上時，您將獲得大約 90 億歐元。

So that's the math. So in fact, it's the transition from the shortfall of EUR 800 million that we had in Q4, we have the supply chain for that. And now it's a matter of us trying to squeeze that into the manufacturing capability here in Veldhoven.

這就是數學。所以事實上，這是我們在第四季度的 8 億歐元缺口的過渡，我們有供應鏈。而現在，我們要努力將其融入 Veldhoven 的製造能力中。

Got it. That's helpful color. And then just as a quick follow-up. On your Memory revenue growth expectations, I think the other expectations for just total Memory WFE is more around flat. So can you help us maybe understand just how much of that is being driven by EUV adoption?

知道了。這是有用的顏色。然後作為快速跟進。關於您的內存收入增長預期，我認為僅對內存 WFE 總量的其他預期更接近持平。那麼，您能幫助我們了解 EUV 的採用在多大程度上推動了這一點嗎？

Yes. Well, at least, what we can say on EUV adoption is that about 20%, a little north of that even of the EUV sales that we're going to see this year, system sales will be in Memory. So if you take about EUR 8 billion, a little under EUR 8 billion, if you look at the revenue number for EUV, 20% of that is related to Memory. So that's already a substantial part, I would say, in that number.

是的。好吧，至少，我們可以說 EUV 的採用大約有 20%，甚至比我們今年將看到的 EUV 銷售量稍微偏北一點，系統銷售將在內存中。所以如果你拿大約 80 億歐元，略低於 80 億歐元，如果你看一下 EUV 的收入數字，其中 20% 與內存有關。因此，我想說，在這個數字中，這已經是相當大的一部分了。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar with Cowen & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen & Company 的 Krish Sankar。

I have 2 of them. First one, Roger, for FY '22, I got the revenue guidance on the tax rate. Did you give a gross margin and OpEx guidance for the full year?

我有 2 個。第一個，羅傑，在 22 財年，我得到了關於稅率的收入指導。您是否提供了全年的毛利率和運營支出指導？

We didn't, but I'm happy to talk about it and give you a little bit of flavor as to where we see this land. And frankly, I think we're going to see gross margins for this year a little over the gross margin that we had for the last year. So I would say it's around 53%. That would be my expectation for the year.

我們沒有，但我很高興談論它，讓你了解一下我們在哪裡看到這片土地。坦率地說，我認為今年的毛利率會略高於去年的毛利率。所以我會說它大約是53％。那將是我對這一年的期望。

And I guess your next question -- your next implied question is going to be, so help me understand that. Of course, we start with a -- it's 52.7% for last year, which we have to recognize is already helped by the very significant software upgrade packages revenue that is in there. And that, as we've said before, is very helpful to the gross margin.

我猜你的下一個問題——你的下一個隱含問題將是，所以請幫助我理解這一點。當然，我們從去年的 52.7% 開始，我們必須承認，其中非常重要的軟件升級包收入已經幫助了這一點。正如我們之前所說，這對毛利率非常有幫助。

So if you neutralize the very high impact that, that had on the gross margin for last year, I would say for the year, you probably take out about 0.7%. So that gets you to a base -- a normalized base of 52%.

因此，如果你抵消對去年毛利率的非常高的影響，我想說的是，你可能會扣除大約 0.7%。這樣你就得到了一個基數——一個標準化的 52% 的基數。

And then there's a few things. First off, the NXE pricing, which is primarily driven by the fact that we only have these in this year in comparison to the mix of last year. That would give you about 1.5%. And then we talked a little bit about the High-NA impact on the gross margin. That's a little bit higher this year than it was last year. I would expect about 0.5% there. So if you do -- if you add it all up, then you get a 53%. Then there's a little bit of a swing factor as to the composition of deep UV in terms of dry versus immersion. At this stage, we expect both of them to grow about 20%. So I would say it's about neutral for the gross margin. But that's the buildup to the 53%.

然後有幾件事。首先是 NXE 定價，這主要是因為與去年相比，我們今年只有這些定價。那會給你大約1.5%。然後我們談到了高NA對毛利率的影響。今年比去年高一點。我預計那里大約有0.5％。所以如果你這樣做——如果你把它加起來，那麼你會得到 53%。然後，在乾式和浸沒式方面，深紫外線的成分存在一些波動因素。在這個階段，我們預計它們都將增長約 20%。所以我想說這對毛利率來說是中性的。但這是53%的積累。

In terms of OpEx, we've only guided the numbers for Q1, as we typically do, only for the quarter. But I think it's safe to say that the 4% on SG&A and 14% on R&D, I think those assumptions are a safe assumptions for the full year. And then obviously, on the basis of the EUR 22.3 billion, that sort of implied in the 20% year-on-year growth for revenue.

就運營支出而言，我們只指導了第一季度的數字，就像我們通常做的那樣，僅針對該季度。但我認為可以肯定地說，SG&A 佔 4%，研發佔 14%，我認為這些假設是全年的安全假設。然後很明顯，在 223 億歐元的基礎上，這意味著收入同比增長 20%。

We actually gave you complete P&L.

我們實際上給了你完整的損益表。

Roger, you already helped me with my model.

羅傑，你已經幫我設計了模型。

And I just had a quick follow-up for Peter or Roger. The 20% growth in deep UV this year, can you give some color into how much of that you expect DUV memory to grow? And how much your DUV for foundry growth this year? And I think, Roger, you mentioned dry and immersion is roughly split half-half this year. Is that correct?

我剛剛對彼得或羅傑進行了快速跟進。今年深紫外光增長了 20%，您能否說明一下您預計 DUV 內存將增長多少？今年你的代工廠增長了多少 DUV？我認為，羅傑，你提到干式和浸入式今年大致分為一半。那是對的嗎？

That is correct. That is what I said. I expect both to go up about -- with the same percentage, about 20%.

那是對的。這就是我所說的。我預計兩者都會以相同的百分比上漲，大約 20%。

And then we gave you the numbers for the increase in Memory and Logic, and I gave you the EUV number for Memory. So frankly, I think that's given you all the building blocks you need to come up with the right number there.

然後我們給了你增加內存和邏輯的數字，我給了你內存的 EUV 數字。坦率地說，我認為這為您提供了在那裡提出正確數字所需的所有構建塊。

And just to remind you, the Logic will be up more than 20% year-on-year, and Memory up to around 20% year-on-year. So -- and then with the EUV numbers, you can probably figure it out.

提醒一下，Logic 同比增長 20% 以上，Memory 同比增長 20% 左右。所以 - 然後使用 EUV 數字，您可能會弄清楚。

Our next question comes from Aleksander Peterc with Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Aleksander Peterc。

Just very briefly on fast shipments. Do I understand it correctly that this will now become systematic for EUV going forward. And so this would then imply that you take the biggest hit from this kind of new practice in '22? And from '23, the impact should then be negligible as you have only a little more revenue deferred then what you recognized from the previous year, but it then cancels out. Is that a correct way of looking at things?

只是非常簡短地介紹了快速發貨。我是否正確理解這將成為 EUV 未來的系統化。那麼這是否意味著你在 22 年的這種新做法中受到了最大的打擊？從 23 年開始，影響應該可以忽略不計，因為您的遞延收入只比您從上一年確認的多一點，但隨後會抵消。這是看待事物的正確方式嗎？

Yes. Aleksander, I think you see it right. So -- and it's not just for NXE. So we also do this for immersion. So it's the combination of those 2. And at least for this year, this will be the standard practice.

是的。亞歷山大，我想你沒看錯。所以——這不僅適用於 NXE。所以我們也這樣做是為了沉浸。所以這是兩者的結合。至少在今年，這將是標準做法。

And then if you look at this year, as we mentioned to you, there's about EUR 2 billion that falls into subsequent quarters as a result of this as it relates to Q1. What we're going to do is try and at least try and limit the installation time, both for NXEs and for immersion tools as a result of which the impact by the end of the year should be a lot lower because we try to make the delta between the shipment movement and the acceptance by the customer that made [that more]. And we think we can squeeze out 2 maybe even 3 weeks in the install time in order to get there. So that's what we're driving.

然後，如果您看一下今年，正如我們向您提到的那樣，由於與第一季度有關，因此有大約 20 億歐元將落入隨後的季度。我們要做的是嘗試並至少嘗試限制安裝時間，無論是對於 NXE 還是對於沉浸式工具，因此到今年年底的影響應該會小很多，因為我們試圖讓裝運移動與製造[更多]的客戶接受之間的差異。我們認為我們可以在安裝時間中擠出 2 週甚至 3 週的時間來實現目標。所以這就是我們正在推動的。

And as a result of that, it is our expectation that the amount at the end of this year, I mean, we referenced the 6 EUV tools, so that would be about EUR 1 billion. So that's what we're trying to work towards. That the spillover, if you like, from the last quarter into the next quarter is going to be only about EUR 1 billion.

因此，我們預計今年年底的金額，我的意思是，我們參考了 6 個 EUV 工具，所以這將是大約 10 億歐元。這就是我們正在努力的方向。如果你願意的話，從上個季度到下個季度的溢出效應將僅為 10 億歐元左右。

That's what we're driving towards. So that means that during the year, we're going to gain, if you like, about EUR 1 billion in the subsequent quarters and are only going to lose for the full year EUR 1 billion into next year.

這就是我們正在努力的方向。因此，這意味著在這一年中，如果您願意，我們將在隨後的幾個季度中獲得約 10 億歐元，而到明年全年只會損失 10 億歐元。

Whether this will be the standard practice for years to come? We'll just see how this works, if this works well as we anticipate for ourselves and also for the customers, if we can really prove as we've done in last year that we can do this without a quality impact, if you like, in the field, and we are pretty comfortable that we can do that, then I think this will be appreciated by the customer and also leads to efficiency on our end. So then indeed also for subsequent years, this will be the practice. And then indeed, you won't have any impact anymore in the years to come.

這是否會成為未來幾年的標準做法？我們將看看它是如何工作的，如果這能像我們對自己和客戶的預期那樣運作良好，如果我們真的能像去年那樣證明我們可以在不影響質量的情況下做到這一點，如果你喜歡，在現場，我們很高興我們能做到這一點，那麼我認為這會受到客戶的讚賞，也會提高我們的效率。因此，實際上在隨後的幾年中，這也將成為慣例。然後確實，您在未來幾年將不再有任何影響。

Yes. And one small addition to that, this will apply to systems that we have whether it's -- there is a significant enough level of confidence that we don't run into acceptance problems in the field. So let's say, the first type of a new tool probably the first 4 or 5 systems you will probably do the traditional factory acceptance test in Veldhoven just to make sure that if you run into any issue, that there is a big R&D group that can actually help you solve the problem instead of moving that problem to the field.

是的。除此之外，還有一個小補充，這將適用於我們擁有的系統，無論它是 - 有足夠的信心，我們不會在該領域遇到驗收問題。因此，假設第一種新工具可能是前 4 或 5 個系統，您可能會在 Veldhoven 進行傳統的工廠驗收測試，以確保如果遇到任何問題，有一個大型研發團隊可以實際上可以幫助您解決問題，而不是將問題轉移到現場。

So I would have completely comply with what Roger said with the exception that on what we call new product introduction, in the first couple of tools, we'll probably do the traditional way, okay.

所以我會完全遵守羅傑所說的，除了在我們所謂的新產品介紹中，在前幾個工具中，我們可能會採用傳統方式，好吧。

Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question on gross margins. If I take that 53% and what you guided Q1, it looks like you're going to exit the year at roughly 54%. Is that the right number to use? .

我想第一個問題是關於毛利率的。如果我採用這 53% 以及您在第一季度的指導，看起來您將以大約 54% 的價格退出這一年。那是正確的號碼嗎？ .

And as part of that, that is the low end of your 2025 target model. So I guess, I'd love to hear your thoughts on, what you're going to do here exiting calendar '22 and the confidence that provides to you in terms of your future outlook?

作為其中的一部分，這是您 2025 年目標模型的低端。所以我想，我很想听聽您的想法，您將在 22 年日曆之後在這裡做什麼，以及您對未來前景的信心？

Yes. C.J., so somewhere in the year, indeed, if we want to get to 53% for the full year, and we start with 49% somewhere in the year will have higher percentages. And also, as I mentioned, somewhere in the year, we will gain on the revenue side, right, on the sales side because we lose EUR 2 billion in the first quarter, only EUR 1 billion for the year. So we're somewhat going to gain the [EUR 1 billion]. So -- and of course, those 2 are related. Whether all of that is going to be in Q4? I cannot tell you.

是的。 C.J.，所以在今年的某個時候，事實上，如果我們想在全年達到 53%，我們從 49% 開始，在一年中的某個地方會有更高的百分比。而且，正如我所提到的，在今年的某個時候，我們將在收入方面獲得收益，對，在銷售方面，因為我們在第一季度損失了 20 億歐元，而全年只有 10 億歐元。因此，我們將在一定程度上獲得[10 億歐元]。所以——當然，這兩個是相關的。所有這些是否都會在第四季度進行？我不能告訴你。

So somewhere in the course of this year, we are going to see an improvement of the gross margin beyond the 53%. But bear with me, it's a little bit too early to already start making predictions on the gross margin for '23.

因此，在今年的某個時候，我們將看到毛利率提高到 53% 以上。但請耐心等待，現在開始預測 23 年的毛利率還為時過早。

That's helpful. I guess maybe a bigger picture question for you, regarding visibility. I think this is the highest kind of backlog coverage you've ever had as a company. And I guess, obviously, part of that EUV related and obviously part of it is the supply constraints out there. But just curious, how do you think about that? And I guess, how are you thinking about the capacity you need to add into, I think, you talked about a $1 trillion kind of semiconductor market and the confidence you have today on 2023 revenue growth?

這很有幫助。關於可見性，我想對你來說可能是一個更大的問題。我認為這是您作為一家公司所擁有的最高的積壓覆蓋率。而且我想，很明顯，與 EUV 相關的一部分，顯然一部分是那裡的供應限制。但只是好奇，你怎麼看？而且我想，您如何考慮需要增加的容量，我認為您談到了 1 萬億美元的半導體市場以及您今天對 2023 年收入增長的信心？

Yes, I think it's a very good number. It's a very good question. I can't give you the exact number. But one thing is for sure that we will ship more systems, deep UV and EUV in 2020 as compared to 2021. And it's my expectation the same thing will happen in 2023.

是的，我認為這是一個非常好的數字。這是一個很好的問題。我不能給你確切的數字。但有一件事是肯定的，與 2021 年相比，我們將在 2020 年推出更多系統、深紫外和 EUV。我預計 2023 年也會發生同樣的事情。

And as a matter of fact, I also expect that in 2023, our EUV shipments will go over 60 systems. And part of it has to do with the cycle time reduction we talked about, could be through fast shipments and through shortening the installation times. Yes, that will happen.

事實上，我也預計到 2023 年，我們的 EUV 出貨量將超過 60 個系統。部分原因與我們談到的縮短週期有關，可能是通過快速發貨和縮短安裝時間。是的，這會發生。

And also for deep UV, I think we can still squeeze, start squeezing and reducing cycle time in the supply chain, so we can do potentially more systems next year than we do this year.

而且對於深紫外線，我認為我們仍然可以壓縮、開始壓縮和減少供應鏈中的周期時間，因此我們明年可以做比今年更多的系統。

Having said that, I think we're still in a situation where, and I said it on the video, but also on several occasions today, that the demands for all our technology also specifically deep UVs, so significantly higher than what we can currently make. When we look at our maximum capacity today, I think the demand, which is not, with all respect, the demand which customers would like to give us an order, but they don't because we don't have the capacity, to be around 40% higher than what we can make.

話雖如此，我認為我們仍然處於這樣一種情況，我在視頻中說過，而且今天也有幾次，對我們所有技術的需求也特別是深紫外線，遠遠高於我們目前的能力製作。當我們今天查看我們的最大產能時，我認為需求，從所有方面來說，並不是客戶願意給我們下訂單的需求，但他們沒有，因為我們沒有能力，是比我們能做的高出大約 40%。

Everything moves out. So what we cannot ship today, we'll move to 2023. So now what we cannot ship in 2023, we'll move to 2024. And that actually means that we need to add capacity beyond what we're currently planning. And that is exactly what we're doing today. I think we had a capacity plan beyond 2023 that we are currently have decided on. But we haven't had this internally, but we haven't gone for that fully yet in the supply chain with our critical suppliers, which we will do this quarter.

一切都搬出去了。所以我們今天不能發貨的東西，我們將移到 2023 年。所以現在我們不能在 2023 年發貨的東西，我們將移到 2024 年。這實際上意味著我們需要增加超出我們目前計劃的容量。這正是我們今天正在做的事情。我認為我們目前已經決定了 2023 年以後的產能計劃。但是我們在內部還沒有這樣做，但是我們還沒有在供應鏈中與我們的關鍵供應商一起完全做到這一點，我們將在本季度這樣做。

So I think we want to be in a situation that, starting 2024, we will be able to meet whatever demand the customers have. I think we are in a situation where on leading-edge immersion and EUV, the customers have nowhere to go. And we don't want to keep pushing excess demand being described as the demand over our maximum capacity to move -- constantly move into the next year.

所以我認為我們希望從 2024 年開始，我們將能夠滿足客戶的任何需求。我認為我們處於領先的沉浸式和 EUV 的情況下，客戶無處可去。我們不想繼續推動被描述為對我們最大移動能力的需求——不斷進入明年。

So this is what we are doing. I already gave you an indication on the EUV for 2023, that will be above 60 because of all the measures that we have taken. But I think we also -- we are -- we have taken internally the decision that we indeed need to increase our capacity beyond that. And that will be something which we will be discussing with you probably, hopefully, when we get early confirmation from our critical suppliers next quarter.

這就是我們正在做的事情。我已經向您說明了 2023 年的 EUV，由於我們採取了所有措施，該值將超過 60。但我認為我們也 - 我們是 - 我們已經在內部做出了我們確實需要增加我們的能力的決定。這將是我們可能會與您討論的事情，希望在下個季度我們得到關鍵供應商的早期確認時。

Our next question comes from Sandeep Deshpande with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

I mean my question is actually a sort of follow-up. But when I look at your 2025 guidance, Peter, you've guided to EUR 25 billion to EUR 30 billion in sales. But when you look at your sales over the last 4 -- sorry, your orders over the last 4 quarters and add to that your Installed Base Management, you're already running at a 4-quarter run rate of over EUR 31 billion et cetera. So is the -- well, does the 2025 guidance need to be updated, or do you think that this was a different sort of period we've been in? Or how should we looking at that 2025 guidance of ASML?

我的意思是我的問題實際上是一種跟進。但是當我看到你的 2025 年指導時，彼得，你已經指導了 250 億歐元到 300 億歐元的銷售額。但是，當您查看過去 4 年的銷售額時——抱歉，您在過去 4 個季度的訂單並加上您的安裝基礎管理，您已經以超過 310 億歐元等的 4 個季度運行率運行.那麼——嗯，2025 年的指導是否需要更新，還是你認為這是我們所處的不同時期？或者我們應該如何看待 ASML 的 2025 年指導方針？

Yes. Well, let's do everything in the right order, yes. And that's first, look at the customer demand and the demand curves and have very in-depth discussion, as you know, with our customers on their CapEx plans and their CapEx plans are driven by what they currently see as being short in customer demand, not only for this year and for next year, but longer term.

是的。好吧，讓我們按照正確的順序做所有事情，是的。首先，查看客戶需求和需求曲線，並與我們的客戶就他們的資本支出計劃和他們的資本支出計劃進行非常深入的討論，他們目前認為客戶需求不足，不僅是今年和明年，而是更長期。

And I can only remind you of the very, let's say, confident messages that our customers have given over the last few days on how they feel about the strength of the demand. And we can also go into the details why we think the longer-term demand will be higher.

我只能提醒您，我們的客戶在過去幾天裡就他們對需求強度的感受給出了非常自信的信息。我們還可以詳細說明為什麼我們認為長期需求會更高。

And having said that, on top of that, there's going to be a push by the drive for technological sovereignty, there will be incentives around the globe to actually build that capacity. That comes on top, which I don't think will translate into significant fast capacity anywhere before 2024 and it will be 2024 at the earliest, probably more like 2025, 2026.

話雖如此，除此之外，技術主權的推動力將得到推動，全球將有激勵措施來實際建立這種能力。這是最重要的，我認為在 2024 年之前的任何地方都不會轉化為顯著的快速容量，最早將是 2024 年，可能更像是 2025 年、2026 年。

Having said that and going back to the previous question, I think this is why we are looking at our maximum capacity for us and in the supply chain. And I gave the answer. I think this is the work that we're doing today. And when we have that confirmed that we can actually do that, then that would be the time also to relook at the guidance and to see whether we should indeed adjust some of the numbers that we gave you a quarter ago.

話雖如此，回到上一個問題，我認為這就是為什麼我們正在考慮我們和供應鏈中的最大產能。而我給出了答案。我認為這就是我們今天正在做的工作。當我們確認我們確實可以做到這一點時，那也是重新審視指導並看看我們是否真的應該調整我們在一個季度前給你的一些數字的時候了。

But that -- in that order, we have to get ourselves comfortable with the demand situation vis-a-vis our customers. We are translating that into a capacity number, which we need to get confirmed with our key supplier scenario, the size and [terms and VDLs] of this world, that needs to be confirmed, and that will leads to construction activities, where you're likely need to read at square meters. And that means if you have that confirmation, we can say, okay, when we have that, looking at the demand situation, what should we do with the 2025 range that we gave you. And when we have concluded that, we will come back to you with that information.

但是，按照這個順序，我們必須讓自己對客戶的需求情況感到滿意。我們正在將其轉化為產能數字，我們需要通過我們的主要供應商方案、世界的規模和 [條款和 VDL] 來確認，這需要確認，這將導致建設活動，您在哪裡可能需要按平方米閱讀。這意味著，如果你得到確認，我們可以說，好吧，當我們得到確認時，看看需求情況，我們應該如何處理我們給你的 2025 年範圍。當我們得出結論時，我們會向您提供該信息。

Just one quick follow-up on. I mean, you've indicated in your recent release that you've got a new e-beam tool shipping. Is this e-beam business now going to become much more significant in the next few years as these new tools shipped? Because I mean, clearly, your lithography business has flourished massively, but your e-beam business has been slower to take off. So can you make any comments on that? .

只需快速跟進。我的意思是，您在最近發布的版本中表示您已經獲得了新的電子束工具。隨著這些新工具的推出，電子束業務在未來幾年會變得更加重要嗎？因為我的意思是，很明顯，您的光刻業務蓬勃發展，但您的電子束業務起步較慢。那麼你能對此發表任何評論嗎？ .

Yes. I think the fact that I think the 5x5 beam the inspection tool the 1100, I mean, this is definitely a tool -- actually, I think it's been packed today. So that will ship. We have high expectations of it. It looks good as when we ship to our first customer. And yes, when we get the qualification of that tool, I believe that's going to be a driver for higher sales numbers for our e-beam business. Next to the fact that our single beam business will stay also strong.

是的。我認為我認為 5x5 光束檢測工具 1100，我的意思是，這絕對是一個工具——實際上，我認為它今天已經打包好了。這樣就可以發貨了。我們對它寄予厚望。當我們運送給我們的第一個客戶時，它看起來不錯。是的，當我們獲得該工具的資格時，我相信這將成為我們電子束業務更高銷售額的驅動力。除了我們的單樑業務將保持強勁這一事實之外。

Our next question comes from Francois Bouvignies with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Francois Bouvignies。

Francois, if your phone is on mute, please unmute, so you may ask your question.

弗朗索瓦，如果您的手機處於靜音狀態，請取消靜音，以便您提問。

Can you hear me now?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, I can hear you.

是的，我能聽到你的聲音。

Yes. Yes. Sorry about that. So my question actually was on High-NA. And the release you did with Intel. And you disclosed 4 orders back in '18. Now you had an order last quarter, you were discussing another one with Intel today. .

是的。是的。對於那個很抱歉。所以我的問題實際上是關於 High-NA 的。還有你與英特爾合作的版本。你在 18 年披露了 4 份訂單。現在你有一個上個季度的訂單，你今天正在與英特爾討論另一個訂單。 .

And in addition, you changed your disclosure of the net bookings, including High-NA now. So my question is should -- what should we expect going forward in terms of High-NA in terms of activity? Should we see more and more High-NA going forward in the following quarters?

此外，您更改了對淨預訂量的披露，包括現在的 High-NA。所以我的問題是應該——就活動而言，我們應該期待在 High-NA 方面取得什麼進展？我們是否應該在接下來的幾個季度看到越來越多的 High-NA 向前發展？

And coming back to your 2025 guidance, with 5 (inaudible) of High-NA, you have 65, if I count correctly in your backlog now, so how should we think about this moving part and your forecast out of 2025?

回到你的 2025 年指導，有 5 個（聽不清）High-NA，如果我現在在你的積壓中正確計算的話，你有 65 個，那麼我們應該如何考慮這個移動部分和你對 2025 年的預測？

Yes. I think on the 2025 number, we also said in my introductory comments that the EXE:5000, which is the R&D tool, which is the development tool. So there's 5 of it that will be shipped starting in 2022 through 2024. So in 2025, it's the High-NA tool. It's the one that we that's a 5200, that's the one that we received the first order for this quarter, the first quarter of 2022.

是的。我想在2025這個數字上，我們在我的介紹性評論中也說過EXE：5000，即研發工具，即開發工具。所以從 2022 年到 2024 年，其中有 5 個將發貨。所以在 2025 年，它是 High-NA 工具。這是我們的 5200，這是我們在本季度（2022 年第一季度）收到的第一個訂單。

I think yes, so you will expect or you may expect. But given the long lead times of these tools, there is going to be more order activity for the High-NA 5200 going forward. I would expect that. But that's driven by indeed the shipment plan 2025.

我認為是的，所以你會期待或者你可能會期待。但鑑於這些工具的交貨時間很長，未來 High-NA 5200 的訂單活動將會更多。我會期待的。但這確實是由 2025 年的出貨計劃推動的。

Now, I think it was Sandeep that asked the question on the 2025 model. I think that this is not a time to piecemeal and give you that 2025 model, but we'll come back to that. But I think High-NA is not so much connected in 2025 to, let's say, the size of the industry and the demand in the industry. It's really technology transition.

現在，我認為是 Sandeep 提出了關於 2025 模型的問題。我認為現在不是零敲碎打地給你 2025 模型的時候，但我們會回來的。但我認為 2025 年的 High-NA 與行業規模和行業需求沒有太大關係。這真的是技術轉型。

So the way it looks now, I think we're still pretty solid on the plan. I think we -- and I think we said it in the last quarter, with the big evolutionary step from Low-NA to High-NA was the optics. Basically, bigger optics, very significant challenges in measuring the mirrors, and we succeeded. It was a success. It is a success, so we can execute. And this is what we are doing now.

所以現在看起來，我認為我們的計劃仍然很穩固。我認為我們 - 我認為我們在上個季度說過，從低 NA 到高 NA 的重大進化步驟是光學。基本上，更大的光學元件，在測量鏡子方面面臨非常重大的挑戰，我們成功了。這是成功的。這是成功的，所以我們可以執行。這就是我們現在正在做的事情。

I mean if you go to the Veldhoven factory now, you would see this massive tool. I mean we showed during the press conference that kind of a picture of some of our engineers, the production engineers in front of to frame. Now you can just see the size of the thing we're executing.

我的意思是，如果你現在去 Veldhoven 工廠，你會看到這個巨大的工具。我的意思是我們在新聞發布會上展示了我們一些工程師的照片，生產工程師在鏡頭前。現在你可以看到我們正在執行的東西的大小。

And I think receiving the first order for 5200, which is going to have, let's say, new standards, setting new standards for lithographic performance in terms of imaging and overlay, it also sets a new standards for productivity. So like Roger said at the press conference, this is the tool that will go for a price very significantly over EUR 300 million.

而且我認為收到 5200 的第一筆訂單，比如說，新標準，在成像和覆蓋方面為光刻性能設定新標準，它也為生產力設定了新標準。所以就像羅傑在新聞發布會上所說的那樣，這款工具的價格將超過 3 億歐元。

First of all, one additional comment on the 5 as we also said at the Investor Day, the reason we have 5 there is not because of shipments because I expect more shipments in 2025 than 5. The reason we said in all scenario is 5 is because of revenue recognition because this is an entirely new product. And therefore, it's hard to predict at this point in time how the installation is going to happen. How the testing is going to pan out, et cetera, et cetera. So that's why we said very conservatively, just put 5 into any model. So it's not related to volume or shipments. It's just a pretty conservative estimate that might take a bit longer before these are actually recognized with reference. So that's why we put in 5.

首先，正如我們在投資者日所說的那樣，對 5 的補充評論，我們有 5 的原因不是因為出貨量，因為我預計 2025 年的出貨量將超過 5。我們在所有情況下說的原因是 5 是因為收入確認，因為這是一個全新的產品。因此，目前很難預測安裝將如何進行。測試將如何進行，等等等等。所以這就是為什麼我們非常保守地說，只要把 5 放到任何模型中。所以它與數量或出貨量無關。這只是一個相當保守的估計，可能需要更長的時間才能真正通過參考來識別這些。所以這就是為什麼我們放了 5 個。

That's very clear. And maybe just a quick follow-up on the supply constraint, which was a highlight last quarter, I believe, and you don't talk too much about supply concern anymore. So should we read that it's improving and you see the risk less important now? I mean how should we think about the supply constraints that you had last quarter? And how is it now?

這很清楚。也許只是對供應限制的快速跟進，我相信這是上個季度的一個亮點，而且你不再過多地談論供應問題。那麼我們是否應該讀到它正在改善並且您現在認為風險不那麼重要了？我的意思是我們應該如何考慮上個季度的供應限制？現在怎麼樣了？

Yes, I think it hasn't eased. The fact is, if life is tough, you just adjust to it. I mean, and that's what we're doing. So basically, it's a fact of life, and it's a daily battle of our sourcing people to make sure that we get guarantees on supply -- in the supply chain because we don't buy those components. Those components are being bought by our suppliers. But what we do, we actually consolidate the shortages, which is especially components, microchips from different layers in the supply chain. .

是的，我認為它並沒有緩解。事實是，如果生活很艱難，你只需適應它。我的意思是，這就是我們正在做的事情。所以基本上，這是生活中的事實，這是我們採購人員的日常戰鬥，以確保我們在供應鏈中獲得供應保證，因為我們不購買這些組件。我們的供應商正在購買這些組件。但我們所做的實際上是在鞏固短缺，尤其是來自供應鏈不同層級的組件、微芯片。 .

So we actually consolidated and we bring it into what we call a [scarcity] center. And then we classify those components by semiconductor manufacturer. And then we get on the phone with them and then say, "Can you help us, you really can help us by what's on stock giving it to us or helping us through -- manage that through the broker system or the distributor system or making sure that those particular chips get somewhere" and it's not many. I mean, it's a few hundred to a few thousand of a certain type because we don't make that many systems.

因此，我們實際上進行了整合，並將其帶入了我們所謂的 [稀缺] 中心。然後我們按半導體製造商對這些組件進行分類。然後我們與他們通電話，然後說，“你能幫助我們嗎，你真的可以通過將庫存提供給我們或幫助我們來幫助我們——通過經紀人系統或分銷商系統進行管理，或者製作確保那些特定的芯片會到達某個地方”，而且數量並不多。我的意思是，它有幾百到幾千個特定類型，因為我們沒有製造那麼多系統。

And that's how we manage this. And we're able to do this day by day by day. But I don't think the situation has gotten any better. It's just that we got better at managing it.

這就是我們管理它的方式。我們能夠一天一天地做到這一點。但我認為情況並沒有好轉。只是我們在管理它方面做得更好了。

Our next question comes from Didier Scemama with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Didier Scemama。

I just wanted to check or double check a couple of things on EUV for next year. So can you talk a little bit about what your capacity will be for Low-NA and High-NA? And then what do you think could be the shipment number for '23 versus the revenue, at least the unit? So because obviously you've got 6 units shifting from '22 to '23. So if you can help me understand that. And I've got a quick follow-up for Roger on the cash flow.

我只是想在明年檢查或仔細檢查 EUV 上的幾件事。那麼你能談談你的 Low-NA 和 High-NA 的容量嗎？然後你認為'23 的出貨量與收入相比可能是什麼，至少是單位？所以因為顯然你有 6 個單位從 '22 轉移到 '23。所以，如果你能幫助我理解這一點。我對羅傑的現金流進行了快速跟進。

Didier, on the -- what we expect for 2023, as Peter pointed out, we are working on a capacity over 60 for next year. So that's on Low-NA. We would get the benefit of the 6 going from '22 into '23. Frankly, we would also, if we continue to do a fast ship have a few systems go from '23 into '24.

迪迪埃，正如彼得指出的那樣，我們對 2023 年的預期是，我們正在努力爭取明年的產能超過 60 個。所以這是在低NA上。我們將從 22 年到 23 年的 6 年受益。坦率地說，如果我們繼續做一艘快船，我們也會讓一些系統從 23 年到 24 年。

So if we're able to continue to drive down installation time, we might gain 1, maybe 2 systems. But net-net, I think for next year, you should expect output in revenue to more and more be at the same level. So I think the over 60 in terms of capacity that Peter referenced, I think, is probably the number to look at.

因此，如果我們能夠繼續縮短安裝時間，我們可能會獲得 1 個，甚至 2 個系統。但是net-net，我認為明年，您應該期望收入的產出越來越處於同一水平。因此，我認為 Peter 提到的超過 60 的容量可能是值得關注的數字。

In terms of High-NA, it's going to be very, very small, right, into 2023 because we expect to have the first shipment of the key modules in -- at the end of 2023. But I wouldn't hold my breath whether that leads to revenue recognition in '23.

就 High-NA 而言，到 2023 年它會非常非常小，因為我們預計關鍵模塊的第一批出貨時間是在 2023 年底。但我不會屏住呼吸是否這導致了 23 年的收入確認。

Understood, very clear, Roger. So on the cash flow, you had a sort of an exceptional working cap in Q4 and amazing free cash for the full year. I just wondered if you could help us understand effectively what's your free cash flow expectation for fiscal year '22 and when do you think the working cap normalizes in your cash flow statement roughly, is it first half, second half, Roger, that would be helpful.

明白，非常清楚，羅傑。所以在現金流方面，你在第四季度有一個特殊的工作上限和全年驚人的自由現金。我只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們有效地了解您對 22 財年的自由現金流預期是多少，以及您認為您的現金流量表中的營運上限何時大致正常化，是上半年，下半年，羅傑，那將是有幫助。

Yes. So you're right. So I think last year was a pretty spectacular year from a cash flow perspective. We had net income of EUR 5.9 million and free cash flow of [EUR 9.9 million]. So that's a pretty good significant conversion rate. But that was exceptional. I think it was exceptional, primarily driven by the huge order intake that we had this year and the huge contingent of EUV, and that's a primary source of down payments in there. .

是的。所以你是對的。所以我認為從現金流的角度來看，去年是非常壯觀的一年。我們的淨收入為 590 萬歐元，自由現金流為 [990 萬歐元]。所以這是一個相當不錯的顯著轉化率。但那是例外。我認為這是非常特殊的，主要是由於我們今年獲得的大量訂單和龐大的 EUV 隊伍，這是那裡的首付的主要來源。 .

But I would expect for this year to more and more neutralize that. So we're never guiding free cash flow, but I would say, to have an expectation that in a steady state, we're going to look at somewhere around 100% or a little bit below that because we're still growing, I think it's probably a safe assumption for the free cash flow development in the years to come.

但我預計今年會越來越多地抵消這一點。所以我們從不指導自由現金流，但我會說，為了期望在穩定狀態下，我們將看到大約 100% 或略低於該水平，因為我們仍在增長，我認為這可能是未來幾年自由現金流發展的安全假設。

Yes, you mean 100% cash conversion rate?

是的，你的意思是100%的現金兌換率？

Cash conversion rate, exactly. Yes.

現金兌換率，確切地說。是的。

Our next question comes from Amit Harchandani with Citi. .

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Amit Harchandani。 .

Amit Harchandani from Citi. Two questions, if I may. My first question, Peter, goes back to the comments you have made about assessing your capacity and supply. As ASML continues to get bigger, obviously, there's this whole talk about geopolitics in the background. How are you strategically thinking about bringing this capacity online? Are you going to pursue the way you have? Are you looking at doing more vertical integration? Is it more regional diversification? Just trying to get a sense of how you're looking at it, in terms of strategically adding capacity as you look to build for the next 5 to 10 years. And I have a follow-up.

花旗銀行的 Amit Harchandani。兩個問題，如果可以的話。彼得，我的第一個問題可以追溯到你關於評估你的產能和供應的評論。隨著 ASML 的不斷壯大，很明顯，整個背景都是關於地緣政治的討論。您如何從戰略上考慮將這種能力上線？你會追求你擁有的方式嗎？您是否正在考慮進行更多的垂直整合？是不是更區域化？只是想了解你是如何看待它的，在你希望在未來 5 到 10 年建設時戰略性地增加容量。我有一個後續行動。

Yes, I think, if you have been at our supervisory board meeting. I mean, this is, of course, the question that we are addressing not only asking ourselves because we already did that, but we're addressing these questions.

是的，我想，如果你參加過我們的監事會會議的話。我的意思是，這當然是我們要解決的問題，我們不僅要問自己，因為我們已經這樣做了，而且我們正在解決這些問題。

I think vertical integration, to answer that question, I don't think that is something which we -- I would say, we try to avoid it. Sometimes we are forced to it. I mean, based on the Berliner Glas, vertical integration, we actually acquired a supplier. But that had some very clear reasons. I mean they had to do with succession planning at the supply, but also that the technology at that particular supply became more and more critical for the performance of the system. So it's not an active -- it is more, you could say that is more a reactive way of looking at growth.

我認為垂直整合，為了回答這個問題，我不認為這是我們 - 我會說，我們試圖避免它。有時我們是被迫的。我的意思是，基於 Berliner Glas 的垂直整合，我們實際上收購了一家供應商。但這有一些非常明確的原因。我的意思是他們必須與供應的繼任計劃有關，而且該特定供應的技術對於系統的性能變得越來越重要。所以它不是一種主動的——它更多，你可以說這更像是一種看待增長的被動方式。

Geographical, clearly, but it's -- but geographical and especially against the background of the geopolitical discussions that are ongoing, of course, is something which is highly sensitive. So -- but yes, we actually look at if we need to build capacity, what's the best place to go to test? What are the best conditions to add capacity, which is a number of issues that we will look at. It has to do with the availability of suppliers that can help us, workforce talent.

顯然，地理上的，但它是地理上的，尤其是在正在進行的地緣政治討論的背景下，當然，這是高度敏感的事情。所以 - 但是是的，我們實際上會考慮是否需要建立能力，最好的測試地點是什麼？什麼是增加容量的最佳條件，這是我們將要研究的一些問題。這與可以幫助我們勞動力人才的供應商的可用性有關。

Are we going somewhere where we know we will be heavily competing for workforce talent with some other major players or you could say, giants, that would, of course, put you into more difficult situation. It is incentives that can be provided by governments. I mean -- and that includes the -- where we currently have our manufacturing locations, but also we are looking at areas where we might not have significant manufacturing, but we could.

我們是否要去某個地方，我們知道我們將與其他一些主要參與者激烈競爭勞動力人才，或者你可以說，巨人，這當然會讓你陷入更困難的境地。這是政府可以提供的激勵措施。我的意思是——這包括——我們目前擁有製造基地的地方，但我們也在尋找我們可能沒有大量製造但我們可以的領域。

So I think these are all things that we are looking at. It's too early to give you a finite answer. And I think when we come to the conclusion that we need to go public, we will go public. But these are all the things that we are discussing right now in the company, in the management board and with the supervisory board, because you are right, we need to add significant capacity. I mean, this is not 5% to 10% extra.

所以我認為這些都是我們正在關注的事情。現在給你一個有限的答案還為時過早。我認為，當我們得出需要上市的結論時，我們就會上市。但這些都是我們現在在公司、管理委員會和監事會討論的所有事情，因為你是對的，我們需要增加大量的能力。我的意思是，這不是額外的 5% 到 10%。

And as an unrelated follow-up, you've talked about demand being unprecedented and significantly higher than capacity. Of course, you put forth your simulation scenarios at the CMD last year. In terms of trying to manage against the risk of over-ordering, double ordering, what are you doing in terms of the check discussion with your customers? We know the secular trends are positive and the industry will remain cyclical. But what are you doing from your side to minimize, if I may call it, the potential risk of oversupply once this capacity all comes online?

作為一個無關緊要的後續行動，您談到了前所未有的需求，並且大大高於產能。當然，您去年在 CMD 上提出了您的模擬場景。在嘗試管理過度訂購、重複訂購的風險方面，您在與客戶的支票討論方面做了什麼？我們知道長期趨勢是積極的，行業將保持週期性。但是，如果我可以稱之為，一旦這些產能全部上線，您將採取什麼措施來最大程度地減少潛在的供過於求的風險？

Yes. One major thing is that our build capacity, I mean, still, when you look at our cost of sales, and Roger can comment on that. The vast majority of our cost of sales is what we buy. So I think for ASML to add -- build capacity is the minority of our cost of sales. Because we're basically outsourcing, which is one of the reasons why we are not actively pursuing vertical integration. We actually love the fact that we have suppliers that are better at what they do than what we do.

是的。一件主要的事情是我們的建設能力，我的意思是，當你查看我們的銷售成本時，羅傑可以對此發表評論。我們的絕大部分銷售成本是我們購買的。所以我認為對於 ASML 來說——建立產能是我們銷售成本的一小部分。因為我們基本上是外包，這也是我們不積極追求垂直整合的原因之一。我們實際上喜歡這樣一個事實，即我們的供應商比我們做得更好。

So having said that, we are not afraid of investing in capacity nor is our supply chain, which is most of our critical suppliers are either like size or exactly the same position as we have and some other supplies are more diversified. So they are able to grow.

話雖如此，我們不怕投資產能，我們的供應鏈也不怕，因為我們的大多數關鍵供應商要么規模相同，要么與我們的位置完全相同，而其他一些供應則更加多樣化。所以他們能夠成長。

But it's -- you are right. There is always this risk of looking at where we are today, listening to the CapEx expansion plans of our major customers in Asia and in the U.S., looking at the geopolitical situation and striving for more technological sovereignty, not complete, but more with incentive programs means that yes, we will add capacity.

但它是——你是對的。看看我們今天所處的位置，聽取我們在亞洲和美國的主要客戶的資本支出擴張計劃，關注地緣政治局勢並爭取更多的技術主權，而不是完整的，但更多的激勵計劃，總是存在這種風險意味著是的，我們將增加容量。

Now we can have -- look at our simulation model and looking at industry analysts, we have been blatantly wrong. So we can do this again or we can say, now let's look forward. Let's have a longer-term view. I do believe, and I think we're not the only one also our customers that -- the compound annual growth numbers for the semiconductor industry will lead to $1 trillion business by the end of the decade. We're over $500 billion now, which means that $500 billion was created in 40 years' time. So we have less than 10 years to just double it again. So I think we will need that capacity, yes?

現在我們可以 - 看看我們的模擬模型和行業分析師，我們已經公然錯誤了。所以我們可以再次這樣做，或者我們可以說，現在讓我們向前看。讓我們有一個更長遠的觀點。我確實相信，而且我認為我們並不是唯一的客戶——半導體行業的複合年增長率將在本世紀末帶來 1 萬億美元的業務。我們現在超過 5000 億美元，這意味著 5000 億美元是在 40 年內創造的。因此，我們只有不到 10 年的時間再次將其翻倍。所以我認為我們需要這種能力，是嗎？

Now, your question is, will this create temporary overcapacity? And it could very well be. These fabs are big, they're humongous. It's all about scale. So yes, when everything is timed in the same couple of years, you probably see overcapacity. But structurally and longer term, we need that capacity. So I'm not that concerned, yes? We should do it.

現在，你的問題是，這會造成暫時的產能過剩嗎？它很可能是。這些晶圓廠很大，非常龐大。一切都與規模有關。所以是的，當一切都在同一兩年內進行時，您可能會看到產能過剩。但從結構上和長期來看，我們需要這種能力。所以我沒那麼擔心，是嗎？我們應該這樣做。

And my last reason why I think we should do it is. On some of these technologies, we are unfortunately, for the industry, the sole source of supply. I don't want to be in a situation as I said it before, that we have to keep pushing the over demand from one year to the other. We have to create a situation where we pay responsibility together with our customers that we can supply what the market needs. And that could indeed mean that there is potential, a bit of overcapacity. Given the fact that we're very bad at predicting the growth rate of this industry, I'm okay with that. But that's perhaps as an answer of an old man.

我認為我們應該這樣做的最後一個原因是。不幸的是，對於其中一些技術，我們是該行業的唯一供應來源。我不想像我之前所說的那樣，我們必須不斷地將過度需求從一年推到另一年。我們必須創造一種與客戶一起承擔責任的局面，我們可以提供市場所需的東西。這確實可能意味著存在潛力，有點產能過剩。鑑於我們在預測這個行業的增長率方面非常糟糕，我對此表示同意。但這也許是一位老人的回答。

Our next question comes from Stephane Houri with ODDO BHF.

我們的下一個問題來自 ODDO BHF 的 Stephane Houri。

Yes. I just want you have more color maybe on your Chinese (technical difficulty). What's the size of your China? What was the growth for the last quarter? And what (technical difficulty)

是的。我只是想讓你的中文有更多的顏色（技術難度）。你的中國有多大？上個季度的增長是多少？還有什麼（技術難度）

When you talk about the China business. I guess China domestic business, I think that's what you're focused on it. And then if you look at the China domestic business, last year, 2021, it was about EUR 1.8 billion. And our expectation is that this will grow at the same pace of company growth. So it will grow about 20% for this year, which in the supply constraint environment is exactly what you would expect in China would grow exactly at the same pace as the other deep UV business would be growing successfully. So EUR 1.8 billion last year, expected to grow to approximately EUR 2.1 billion this year.

當你談到中國業務時。我想中國國內業務，我認為這就是你所關注的。如果你看一下中國國內業務，去年，也就是 2021 年，它約為 18 億歐元。我們的預期是，這將與公司增長同步增長。因此，今年它將增長約 20%，在供應受限的環境下，這正是您所期望的，中國的增長速度與其他深紫外業務的成功增長速度完全相同。因此，去年為 18 億歐元，預計今年將增長到約 21 億歐元。

And a follow-up, quickly about the service margin of EUV. I think you said that was improving. Where do you think it will get to corporate level? Are we still talking about 3 years?

以及後續，快速了解 EUV 的服務邊際。我想你說情況正在改善。您認為它將在哪里達到企業級別？我們還在談論3年嗎？

Yes. So last year, it was about 30%. We expect it to get to about 40% this year. And then I think it will take until '25-ish time frame, I think, until you really get it to corporate level.

是的。所以去年，大約是30%。我們預計今年將達到 40% 左右。然後我認為這將需要到 25 歲左右的時間框架，我認為，直到你真正達到公司層面。

So I think we've made major steps in that becoming more efficient, obviously, we also demand to machine hour very much improving simply because of the sale of EUV. But ultimately, that's the trajectory that we're on.

所以我認為我們已經在提高效率方面邁出了重要的一步，顯然，我們也要求機器時間大大提高，僅僅因為 EUV 的銷售。但最終，這就是我們正在走的軌跡。

So from this point onwards, the steps are going to be a lot smaller. But in 2025, I think we'll get it to approximately corporate [gross margin].

所以從這一點開始，步驟將要小得多。但在 2025 年，我認為我們會達到大約公司的 [毛利率]。

All right. We have time for one last question. If you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Operator, may we have the last caller, please?

好的。我們有時間回答最後一個問題。如果您無法接通本次電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯繫 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。接線員，我們可以請最後一個來電者嗎？

So for our last question, we have Jerome Ramel with BNP Paribas.

最後一個問題是法國巴黎銀行的杰羅姆·拉梅爾。

Maybe a last question for Roger to come back to the free cash flow in Q4. Just on the short-term liabilities, it increased by EUR 3 billion (inaudible) double over Q4 last year. Is it purely the account payables? And so can you give us a number of Q4 compared to Q4 last year?

也許是羅傑在第四季度回到自由現金流的最後一個問題。僅就短期負債而言，它比去年第四季度增加了 30 億歐元（聽不清），翻了一番。純粹是應付賬款嗎？那麼，與去年第四季度相比，您能給我們提供第四季度的數量嗎？

No, no, it's not the account payable. That would be a bit rough to our supply chain, right? So that's not what it is. It is primarily -- it really is a down payment. So it's down payments on new orders, orders for '21 and even beyond that point. That's what it consists of.

不，不，這不是應付賬款。這對我們的供應鏈來說有點粗糙，對吧？所以不是這樣的。它主要是 - 它確實是首付。因此，它是新訂單、21 年甚至超過該時間點的訂單的預付款。這就是它的組成部分。

Again, we were looking at an order intake this year of EUR 26 billion. And that's really what it is. I mean you're looking at the end of this year. At the end of '21, you're looking at EUR 8.5 billion of down payments and a significant part of that came in Q4.

同樣，我們看到今年的訂單量為 260 億歐元。這就是事實。我的意思是你在看今年年底。到 21 年底，您將看到 85 億歐元的首付，其中很大一部分來自第四季度。

For which we're going to spend that money on building the machines and investing within this year. I mean, we don't get that money from nothing. Yes.

為此，我們將在今年內將這筆錢用於製造機器和投資。我的意思是，我們不是一無所有的錢。是的。

Would it be fair to assume that most of the down payment has been done and that will gradually, as you say, normalize in the course of 2022?

假設大部分首付已經完成，並且正如你所說，這將在 2022 年逐漸正常化，這是否公平？

Yes, exactly. So that's why I say this is a very special year, why because we get all these down payments. Next year, you will still get down payments, but you would also do shipments where you only get -- you only get a percentage because you already received the down payments in the year and the year before. And that's why I said that you will see cash conversion get to 100%, frankly, below 100% because of the -- because of the fact that this is still a growing company.

對，就是這樣。所以這就是為什麼我說這是非常特別的一年，因為我們得到了所有這些首付。明年，您仍然會收到預付款，但您也會在您只收到的情況下發貨 - 您只能獲得一定百分比，因為您已經收到了前一年和前一年的預付款。這就是為什麼我說你會看到現金轉換率達到 100%，坦率地說，低於 100%，因為 - 因為這仍然是一家成長中的公司。

So that's why I think in the longer term, you would see cash conversion drop below the 100 percentage point.

所以這就是為什麼我認為從長遠來看，你會看到現金轉換率下降到 100 個百分點以下。

All right. Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thank you.

好的。現在我代表 ASML，感謝大家今天加入我們。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝你。

This now concludes the ASML 2021 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.

ASML 2021 第四季度和全年財務業績電話會議現在結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。