艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML Q4 and Full Year 2021 Financial Results. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持。歡迎閱讀 ASML 2021 年第四季和全年財務表現。 （操作員指示）

I would now like you to turn over to the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想請您將電話會議交給 Skip Miller 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen.

謝謝您，接線生。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink；以及我們的財務長 Roger Dassen。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2021 fourth quarter and full year results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2021 年第四季和全年業績。此次通話時間為 60 分鐘，問題將依照收到的順序進行解答。此次電話會議也透過 asml.com 進行網路現場直播。

A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

管理層開場白的記錄和電話會議的重播將在本次電話會議結束後不久在我們的網站上提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。有關風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明可在我們的網站 asml.com 上找到，也可以在 ASML 的 20-F 表格年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full year 2021 results conference call. Of course, I hope all of you and your families are still healthy and safe.

謝謝你，斯基普。歡迎大家，感謝您參加我們的 2021 年第四季和全年業績電話會議。當然，我希望大家和你們的家人仍然健康、平安。

Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the fourth quarter and the full year 2021 and as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. And Roger will start with a review of our fourth quarter and full year 2021 financial performance with some added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook.

在我們開始問答環節之前，羅傑和我想對第四季和 2021 年全年進行概述和評論，並提出我們對未來幾季的看法。羅傑將首先回顧我們 2021 年第四季和全年的財務業績，並對我們的短期展望發表一些補充評論，而我將在介紹結束時對當前的商業環境和我們未來的業務前景發表一些補充評論。

Roger, if you will?

羅傑，你願意嗎？

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the fourth quarter and full year financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the first quarter of 2022.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。 我將首先回顧第四季度和全年的財務業績，然後對 2022 年第一季提供指導。

Net sales came in within guidance at EUR 5 billion. The effects of the logistics center startup and supply chain issues communicated during our Q3 results is a bit longer than expected to resolve, affecting some deep UV shipments in Q4.

淨銷售額達到預期的 50 億歐元。我們在第三季業績中傳達的物流中心啟動和供應鏈問題的影響比預期的解決時間要長一些，影響了第四季度的一些深紫外線出貨量。

In order to address our customers' need for additional capacity, we completed an increased number of productivity upgrades in Q4 as a way to provide them with incremental productivity enhancement.

為了滿足客戶對額外產能的需求，我們在第四季完成了更多生產力升級，為他們提供漸進式生產力提升。

We shipped 12 EUV systems and recognized EUR 1.6 billion of revenue from 11 EUV systems this quarter. Net system sales of EUR 3.5 billion was again more weighted towards Logic at 73% with the remaining 27% from Memory.

本季我們出貨了 12 台 EUV 系統，並從 11 台 EUV 系統實現了 16 億歐元的營收。 35 億歐元的淨系統銷售額中，邏輯產品佔比再次達到 73%，其餘 27% 來自記憶體。

Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.5 billion, significantly above guidance, primarily due to the software upgrades. As just mentioned, in this strong demand environment, customers continue to use productivity upgrades to increase output of their installed base.

本季安裝基礎管理銷售額達 15 億歐元，大幅高於預期，主要得益於軟體升級。正如剛才所提到的，在這種強勁的需求環境下，客戶繼續利用生產力升級來增加其安裝基礎的產量。

Gross margin for the quarter was 54.2% and was above guidance, primarily driven by higher software productivity upgrades.

本季毛利率為 54.2%，高於預期，主要得益於軟體生產力升級。

On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 681 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 203 million, which was slightly above guidance. In Q4, we had other income of EUR 214 million related to the sale of the non-semiconductor businesses of Berliner Glas. Net income in Q4 was EUR 1.8 billion, representing 35.6% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 4.39.

在營運費用方面，研發費用為 6.81 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用為 2.03 億歐元，略高於預期。第四季度，我們獲得了 2.14 億歐元的其他收入，這些收入與出售 Berliner Glas 的非半導體業務有關。第四季淨收入為 18 億歐元，佔淨銷售額的 35.6%，每股收益為 4.39 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the fourth quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 7.6 billion.

轉向資產負債表。截至第四季末，我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資總額為 76 億歐元。

Moving to the order book. Q4 net system bookings came in at EUR 7.1 billion, including EUR 2.6 billion for 0.33 NA EUV systems and 1.55 NA EUV systems and EXE:5000 systems.

移至訂單簿。第四季淨系統預訂金額為 71 億歐元，其中包括 0.33 NA EUV 系統和 1.55 NA EUV 系統及 EXE:5000 系統的 26 億歐元。

Order intake was strong from both deep UV and EUV, largely driven by Logic with 77% of the bookings and Memory accounted for the remaining 23%.

深紫外線和極紫外光 (EUV) 的訂單量都很強勁，主要由邏輯部門推動，佔訂單量的 77%，而記憶體部門則佔剩餘的 23%。

For the full year, net sales grew 33% to EUR 18.6 billion. EUV system sales in 2021 was EUR 6.3 billion, which is a 41% increase from last year. We achieved 50% EUV growth margin systems on the systems in 2021 and continued to improve EUV service margin. Non-EUV system sales in 2021 was EUR 7.4 billion, which is a 26% increase from last year.

全年淨銷售額成長 33%，達到 186 億歐元。 2021年EUV系統銷售額為63億歐元，比去年成長41%。我們在 2021 年實現了系統上 50% 的 EUV 成長利潤率系統，並持續提高 EUV 服務利潤率。 2021年非EUV系統銷售額為74億歐元，比去年成長26%。

On the market segments for 2021. Logic system revenue was EUR 9.6 billion, which is a 30% increase from last year. Memory system revenue was EUR 4.1 billion, which is a 39% increase from last year.

2021年的細分市場。邏輯系統收入為96億歐元，比去年增長30％。記憶體系統營收為41億歐元，較去年成長39%。

Installed Base Management sales was EUR 5 billion, which is a 35% increase compared to previous year. In 2021, we had total bookings of EUR 26.2 billion, more than 2x increase year-on-year, reflecting customers' strong demand for EUV and deep UV technology.

安裝基礎管理銷售額為 50 億歐元，比上年成長 35%。 2021年，我們的總訂單金額為262億歐元，較去年同期成長2倍多，反映出客戶對EUV和深紫外線技術的強勁需求。

Our R&D spending increased to EUR 2.5 billion in 2021 as we continue to invest in innovation across our product portfolio. Overall, R&D investments as a percentage of 2021 sales was about 14%. SG&A was about 4% of sales. Net income for the full year was EUR 5.9 billion, 31.6% of net sales, resulting in an EPS of EUR 14.36.

隨著我們繼續對整個產品組合的創新進行投資，我們的研發支出在 2021 年增加到 25 億歐元。整體而言，研發投資佔 2021 年銷售額的比例約為 14%。銷售、一般及行政費用約佔銷售額的 4%。全年淨收入為 59 億歐元，佔淨銷售額的 31.6%，每股收益為 14.36 歐元。

Improvements in working capital contributed to a free cash flow generation of EUR 9.9 billion for 2021, mainly driven by customer down payments following the very significant order intake this year. We continue to invest in support of our road map and planned capacity ramp. Excess cash will be returned as per our policy.

營運資本的改善促成了 2021 年 99 億歐元的自由現金流產生，這主要得益於今年大量訂單之後客戶的預付款。我們將繼續投資以支持我們的路線圖和計劃的產能提升。多餘的現金將按照我們的政策退還。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the first quarter of 2022. We expect Q1 total net sales to be between EUR 3.3 billion and EUR 3.5 billion. Lower guidance relative to Q4 is primarily due to a number of so-called fast shipments. These are shipments in the quarter for both EUV and deep UV, that will not complete factory acceptance testing. As we've discussed in prior quarters, fast shipments are in support of customers' desire to bring systems into production as quickly as possible. By skipping some of these testing in our factory, we can shorten the cycle time.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2022 年第一季的預期。我們預計第一季總淨銷售額將在 33 億歐元至 35 億歐元之間。與第四季度相比，預期較低主要是由於一些所謂的快速發貨。這些是本季 EUV 和深 UV 的出貨量，尚未完成工廠驗收測試。正如我們在前幾個季度所討論的那樣，快速發貨是為了滿足客戶盡快將系統投入生產的願望。透過跳過工廠中的一些測試，我們可以縮短週期時間。

Final testing and formal acceptance then takes place at the customer site at which time we will recognize revenue. The value of the Q1 shipments is expected to be between EUR 5.3 billion and EUR 5.5 billion, which means approximately EUR 3 billion of revenue is expected to be deferred to subsequent quarters.

然後在客戶現場進行最終測試和正式驗收，屆時我們將確認收入。第一季的出貨量價值預計在 53 億歐元至 55 億歐元之間，這意味著約 30 億歐元的收入預計將推遲到後續季度。

We expect our Q1 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 1.2 billion. Gross margin for Q1 is expected to be around 49%. The lower gross margin quarter-on-quarter is primarily due to the fast shipment impact of delayed revenues and lower upgrade business compared to last quarter. The expected R&D expenses for Q1 are around EUR 760 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at around EUR 210 million.

我們預計第一季安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 12 億歐元。預計第一季的毛利率約為49%。毛利率環比下降主要是由於收入延遲導致的快速出貨影響以及升級業務較上一季下降。第一季預計研發費用約 7.6 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用預計約 2.1 億歐元。

Our estimated 2022 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 15% and 16%. Regarding our capital return, ASML paid total dividends of EUR 1.4 billion in 2021, made up of the 2020 final dividend and the 2021 interim dividend.

我們預計 2022 年年化有效稅率將在 15% 至 16% 之間。關於我們的資本回報，ASML 在 2021 年支付了總計 14 億歐元的股息，包括 2020 年末期股息和 2021 年中期股息。

ASML intends to declare a total dividend with respect to 2021 of EUR 5.50 per ordinary share. Recognizing the interim dividend of EUR 1.80 per ordinary share paid in November 2021. This leads to a final dividend proposal to the general meeting of EUR 3.70 per ordinary share. Total 2021 dividend is a 100% increase compared to the 2020 dividend. The 2022 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders will take place on April 29, 2022, in Veldhoven.

ASML 計劃宣布 2021 年每股普通股派發 5.50 歐元的總股息。確認 2021 年 11 月支付的每股普通股 1.80 歐元的中期股利。這導致向股東大會提議派發每股普通股 3.70 歐元的最終股息。 2021 年總股息與 2020 年股息相比增加了 100%。 2022 年年度股東大會將於 2022 年 4 月 29 日在費爾德霍芬舉行。

2021 was a rather exceptional year in terms of share buyback. ASML acquired 14.4 million shares for a total amount of EUR 8.6 billion as part of our current and previous program.

就股票回購而言，2021 年是相當特別的一年。作為我們目前和之前的計劃的一部分，ASML 收購了 1,440 萬股股票，總價值為 86 億歐元。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, we had another record year of both sales and profit. We're seeing unprecedented customer demand across all market segments from both advanced and mature nodes, driving demand across our entire product portfolio.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的，我們的銷售額和利潤又創下了歷史新高。我們看到，來自先進和成熟節點的所有細分市場的客戶需求都達到了前所未有的水平，從而推動了我們整個產品組合的需求。

Looking to 2022, after a lower Q1 revenue due to Q1 fast shipments, as highlighted by Roger, we expect a significant increase in revenue for the remaining quarters. For the full year, we expect a net sales increase of around 20% compared to 2021. And bear in mind that this 20% sales growth does not include revenue from 6 EUV fast shipments in Q4 2022. And if you would take the full shipments value of the 6 EUV fast shipments into account, the growth percentage would have been 25%.

展望 2022 年，正如 Roger 所強調的，由於第一季出貨量快速導致第一季營收下降，我們預期剩餘季度的營收將大幅成長。我們預計全年淨銷售額將比 2021 年成長 20% 左右。需要注意的是，這 20% 的銷售額成長並不包括 2022 年第四季 6 台 EUV 快速出貨的收入。如果將 6 台 EUV 快速出貨的全部出貨價值考慮在內，成長率將達到 25%。

For our EUV business, we still expect to ship around 55 systems of which we expect revenue from 6 systems to be deferred to 2023 due to fast shipments. This translates to an expected EUV system revenue of around EUR 7.8 billion in 2022.

對於我們的 EUV 業務，我們仍預計將出貨約 55 套系統，由於出貨量快，我們預計其中 6 套系統的收入將推遲到 2023 年。這意味著 2022 年 EUV 系統收入預計約為 78 億歐元。

In our deep UV and applications business, we expect growth in both immersion and dry systems, as well as continued demand for metrology and inspection systems. We're also planning fast shipments for some deep UV systems, but we do not expect this to impact our 2022 revenue due to inherently shorter installation times for deep UV. We expect revenue growth of over 20% to non-EUV system revenue.

在我們的深紫外線和應用業務中，我們預期浸入式和乾式系統都會成長，對計量和偵測系統的需求也會持續成長。我們還計劃快速發貨一些深紫外線系統，但由於深紫外線的安裝時間本身較短，我們預計這不會影響我們 2022 年的收入。我們預計非 EUV 系統營收將成長 20% 以上。

For the Installed Base Management business, service revenue will continue to scale with the growing installed base of systems. And customers will continue to look at all methods to add wafer capacity. And although we saw upgrades pulled into 2021 to improve wafer output capability at our customers, we expect those type of installed base options to also stay very much in demand this year. We currently expect 2022 installed base revenue to be up around 10% year-on-year.

對於安裝基礎管理業務，服務收入將隨著系統安裝基礎的不斷成長而持續擴大。客戶將繼續尋找所有方法來增加晶圓產能。儘管我們看到 2021 年進行了升級以提高客戶的晶圓輸出能力，但我們預計這些類型的安裝基礎選項今年仍將保持很高的需求。我們目前預計 2022 年安裝基數營收將年增 10% 左右。

Looking at the market segments, given the very strong demand situation and our continued push to increase capacity, we see growth in both Logic and Memory in 2022.

從細分市場來看，鑑於需求情況非常強勁以及我們持續推動產能增加，我們預計 2022 年邏輯和記憶體都將實現成長。

In Logic, we've talked for some time now about the digital transformation that is underway as we move to a more connected world. The growing application space and secular growth drivers translated very strong demand for both advanced and mature nodes. With this continued strong demand, we expect Logic system revenue to be up more than 20% year-on-year.

在《邏輯》中，我們已經討論了在我們走向更互聯的世界的過程中正在進行的數位轉型。不斷成長的應用空間和長期成長動力轉化為對先進和成熟節點的強勁需求。隨著持續強勁的需求，我們預計邏輯系統營收將年增 20% 以上。

In Memory, we also expect to see continued growth of our business this year. With customer expectations of DRAM bit growth in the high teens this year and lithography tool utilization running at very high levels, customers need to add capacity in addition to planned technology transitions to meet demand. As DRAM customers migrate to more advanced nodes, we also expect to see an interest in EUV demand for Memory. We expect the 2022 Memory system revenue to be up around 25% year-on-year.

在記憶方面，我們也預期今年我們的業務將繼續成長。由於客戶預期今年 DRAM 比特成長率將達到十幾位，且光刻工具利用率將達到非常高的水平，因此客戶除了計劃中的技術轉型外，還需要增加產能以滿足需求。隨著 DRAM 客戶遷移到更先進的節點，我們也預計會看到對 EUV 記憶體需求的興趣。我們預計2022年記憶體系統收入將年增約25％。

With this unprecedented demand exceeding our capacity, we are ramping our output capability to meet the strong demand. Of course, this comes with challenges, and we're even more vulnerable when running at maximum capacity is there is little room for recovery when things don't turn out as planned. And COVID, unfortunately, is now behind us, and it impacts everyone, including the workforce in our industry and in the supply chain.

由於這種前所未有的需求超出了我們的產能，我們正在提高產量以滿足強勁的需求。當然，這也伴隨著挑戰，當我們以最大容量運作時，如果事情沒有按計劃進行，我們就會更加脆弱，幾乎沒有恢復的空間。不幸的是，新冠疫情已經過去，它影響到每個人，包括我們行業和供應鏈中的勞動力。

We also have to work through supply chain challenges of material and component shortages and COVID-related supply chain disruptions. In our workforce, we have hired a significant number of people throughout last year. And although we are currently at our planned workforce FTE numbers, they still need to be trained and brought up to the learning curve.

我們還必須解決材料和零件短缺以及與新冠疫情相關的供應鏈中斷等供應鏈挑戰。在我們的員工隊伍中，去年我們僱用了大量員工。儘管我們目前的勞動力全職當量數量已達到計劃，但他們仍然需要接受培訓，以適應學習曲線。

All of what I just mentioned needs maximum management retention and monitoring, creativity and flexibility of all our partners and stakeholders.

我剛才提到的一切都需要我們所有合作夥伴和利害關係人的最大程度的管理保留和監控、創造力和靈活性。

We are working closely with our customers to address these challenges. We're doing fast shipments, skipping some of the testing at factory and completing the final acceptance testing at the customer site, which provides more capacity as quickly as possible. This reduces cycle time in our factory and frees up cabin space in our cleanroom so we can ramp up capacity more quickly. In addition, we continue to provide software upgrades, which will give our customers more capacity.

我們正在與客戶密切合作以應對這些挑戰。我們正在快速發貨，跳過工廠的一些測試，並在客戶現場完成最終驗收測試，以盡快提供更多產能。這減少了我們工廠的週期時間並釋放了無塵室的艙室空間，因此我們可以更快地提高產能。此外，我們將繼續提供軟體升級，這將為我們的客戶提供更大的容量。

As I said before, we're doing our utmost to respond as best as we can to external challenges during COVID-related absenteeism and material shortages in our supply chain.

正如我之前所說，我們正在盡最大努力應對與新冠疫情相關的缺勤和供應鏈材料短缺帶來的外部挑戰。

Also, as we reported earlier in January, we had a fire just after the New Year inside a part of our factory in Berlin. The fire was extinguished during the night and fortunately, no persons were injured during this incident. But the fire occurred in a part of one production building on the site in Berlin and the smoke partly impacted an adjacent building. We've been able to resume production in parts of this building already, and the other buildings on the site have not been affected and are fully operational.

此外，正如我們在一月初報道的那樣，新年剛過，我們柏林工廠的一部分發生了火災。大火在夜間被撲滅，幸運的是，這次事故中無人受傷。但火災發生在柏林工廠一棟生產大樓的一部分，煙霧部分影響了相鄰的建築物。我們已經能夠恢復該建築部分區域的生產，並且現場的其他建築未受到影響並且已全面投入運作。

The manufacturing of deep UV components have been restarted. And although there was some disruption regarding components for deep UV, we expect to remediate this in such a way that it will not affect our output and revenue plan for deep UV.

深紫外線組件的生產製造已重新開始。儘管深紫外線組件方面出現了一些中斷，但我們希望以不會影響深紫外線產量和收入計劃的方式進行補救。

And as to EUV, the fire affected part of the production area of the wafer clamp, which is a module in our EUV systems. Based on our current insights, we believe we can manage the consequences of this fire without significant impact on our EUV system output in 2022.

至於 EUV，火災影響了晶圓夾具的部分生產區域，這是我們 EUV 系統中的一個模組。根據我們目前的了解，我們相信我們可以控制這次火災的後果，而不會對我們 2022 年的 EUV 系統產量產生重大影響。

Overall, while it's also a very unfortunate event, we're optimistic about the current situation and are very grateful for the enormous efforts and creativity of our Berlin staff.

總的來說，雖然這也是一次非常不幸的事件，但我們對目前的情況持樂觀態度，並非常感謝柏林員工的巨大努力和創造力。

On High-NA EUV, we're currently building the first High-NA system in our new cleanroom in Veldhoven. We received an order for an EXE:5000 in Q4, the fifth order in total for the EXE:5000 model, which provides order coverage for planned High-NA shipments in 2024.

對於高數值孔徑 EUV，我們目前正在位於費爾德霍芬的新無塵室中建造第一個高數值孔徑 EUV 系統。我們在第四季度收到了 EXE:5000 的訂單，這是 EXE:5000 型號的第五份訂單，該訂單涵蓋了 2024 年計劃中的 High-NA 出貨量。

In addition, at the beginning of this year, we received the first order for the EXE:5200. EXE:5200 is ASML's next model High-NA system, which we intend to launch in 2024 after the introduction of our first High-NA system. The EXE:5200 will provide the next step for lithography performance and productivity. Demand continues to be extremely strong even to the point where we believe we are also this year falling significantly short of the customer demand.

此外，今年年初，我們收到了EXE:5200的第一筆訂單。 EXE:5200 是 ASML 的新一代高數值孔徑系統，我們計劃在推出第一款高數值孔徑系統後於 2024 年推出該系統。 EXE:5200 將為光刻性能和生產力提供更進一步的提升。需求持續非常強勁，甚至我們認為今年我們的產量也遠遠無法滿足客戶的需求。

Looking beyond 2022, global megatrends, we talked about at Investor Day, broadening in the application space and fueling demand for advanced and mature nodes. Growth in semiconductor end markets and increasingly higher lithography intensity, driving demand for our products and services. We, along with our supply chain partners are actively adding and improving significant system build capacity to meet future customer demand. In short, we are even more confident in our long-term growth opportunities.

展望2022年後，我們在投資者日討論了全球大趨勢，擴大應用空間並推動對先進和成熟節點的需求。半導體終端市場的成長和光刻強度的不斷提高，推動了對我們產品和服務的需求。我們與我們的供應鏈合作夥伴正在積極增加和提高重要的系統建置能力，以滿足未來客戶的需求。簡而言之，我們對我們的長期成長機會更有信心。

With that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Operator, can we have your final instructions and then the first question, please.

謝謝你，羅傑和彼得。操作員將立即指導您在問答環節的協議。 （接線生指示）接線員，請問您最後的指示以及第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

Curious on the DUV side, demand that you're forecasting for 2022 is maybe quite a bit stronger than we had initially anticipated. How do we think about the 20% growth in the context of the capacity that you and your supply chain are adding relative to, I think in the past, you were talking about hopefully trying to build some inventory -- buffer inventory as well this year.

好奇的是，從 DUV 方面來看，您預測的 2022 年需求可能比我們最初預期的要強勁得多。我們如何看待您和您的供應鏈正在增加的產能背景下的 20% 的增長，我認為在過去，您曾談到希望今年嘗試建立一些庫存 - 緩衝庫存。

Yes, Joe, it's a good question. And I think it's important to look at the full picture here, including what happened in the last quarter because you might recall that in the last quarter, we were expecting for the full year of deep UV or the non-EUV business, if you want to call it that way, approximately EUR 8.2 billion, that was the expectation we had going into the quarter. And of course, we landed substantially below that. We landed at EUR 7.4 billion. So there was about a EUR 800 million shortfall that we then made up in Q4 with higher EUV sales and higher installed base sales.

是的，喬，這是個好問題。我認為，重要的是要看清整體情況，包括上個季度發生的情況，因為您可能還記得，在上個季度，我們預計全年深紫外線或非 EUV 業務（如果您願意這樣稱呼的話）的銷售額約為 82 億歐元，這是我們對本季度的預期。當然，我們的目標遠低於這個數字。我們的投資金額達到了 74 億歐元。因此，出現了約 8 億歐元的缺口，我們在第四季度透過提高 EUV 銷售額和安裝基數銷售額彌補了這一缺口。

So what we're saying now is that, that EUR 800 million, we're now trying to get that into the plant for this year. And we can do that because, of course, that's the material for that production was, in fact, already produced by the supply chain. So we have the material, so now it's a matter for us within our manufacturing plant here in Veldhoven to get that done.

所以我們現在要說的是，我們正試圖將這 8 億歐元投入今年的工廠。我們之所以能做到這一點，是因為用於該生產的材料實際上已經由供應鏈生產出來了。我們已經有了材料，現在我們要在位於費爾德霍芬的製造工廠內完成這項工作。

And if you then do the math, right? So we told you last year that we believe we were going to be kind of flat year-on-year for deep UV. That was under the expectation that last year was going to be EUR 8.2 billion. So it's EUR 8.2 billion this year plus the EUR 800 million that you kind of transitioned from last year, that gets you to about the EUR 9 billion that you get to when you add the 20% to last year.

然後你再算一下，對嗎？所以我們去年告訴你們，我們相信深紫外線的銷售量比去年同期會持平。這低於去年 82 億歐元的預期。因此，今年的 82 億歐元加上去年過渡的 8 億歐元，加上去年的 20% 就達到了約 90 億歐元。

So that's the math. So in fact, it's the transition from the shortfall of EUR 800 million that we had in Q4, we have the supply chain for that. And now it's a matter of us trying to squeeze that into the manufacturing capability here in Veldhoven.

這就是數學。因此，事實上，這是我們在第四季出現的 8 億歐元缺口的轉變，我們擁有相應的供應鏈。現在我們要做的就是努力將其融入費爾德霍芬的製造能力中。

Got it. That's helpful color. And then just as a quick follow-up. On your Memory revenue growth expectations, I think the other expectations for just total Memory WFE is more around flat. So can you help us maybe understand just how much of that is being driven by EUV adoption?

知道了。這是很有幫助的顏色。然後只是進行快速跟進。關於您對記憶體收入成長的預期，我認為對總記憶體 WFE 的其他預期基本上持平。那麼，您能否幫助我們了解其中有多少是由 EUV 的採用所推動的？

Yes. Well, at least, what we can say on EUV adoption is that about 20%, a little north of that even of the EUV sales that we're going to see this year, system sales will be in Memory. So if you take about EUR 8 billion, a little under EUR 8 billion, if you look at the revenue number for EUV, 20% of that is related to Memory. So that's already a substantial part, I would say, in that number.

是的。好吧，至少，關於 EUV 的採用，我們可以說，大約 20%，甚至略高於我們今年將看到的 EUV 銷售量，系統銷售將用於內存。因此，如果您拿出大約 80 億歐元，略低於 80 億歐元，如果您查看 EUV 的收入數字，其中 20% 與內存有關。所以我想說，這已經佔了該數字的很大一部分。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar with Cowen & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen & Company 的 Krish Sankar。

I have 2 of them. First one, Roger, for FY '22, I got the revenue guidance on the tax rate. Did you give a gross margin and OpEx guidance for the full year?

我有 2 個。首先，羅傑，對於 22 財年，我獲得了有關稅率的收入指導。您是否給出了全年的毛利率和營運支出指引？

We didn't, but I'm happy to talk about it and give you a little bit of flavor as to where we see this land. And frankly, I think we're going to see gross margins for this year a little over the gross margin that we had for the last year. So I would say it's around 53%. That would be my expectation for the year.

我們沒有，但我很高興談論它並讓你稍微了解我們對這片土地的看法。坦白說，我認為今年的毛利率將略高於去年的毛利率。所以我認為大約是 53%。這就是我對今年的期望。

And I guess your next question -- your next implied question is going to be, so help me understand that. Of course, we start with a -- it's 52.7% for last year, which we have to recognize is already helped by the very significant software upgrade packages revenue that is in there. And that, as we've said before, is very helpful to the gross margin.

我想你的下一個問題——你的下一個隱含問題將是，請幫我理解這一點。當然，我們首先要說的是——去年這一比例是 52.7%，我們必須認識到，這已經得益於其中非常重要的軟體升級包收入。正如我們之前所說，這對毛利率非常有幫助。

So if you neutralize the very high impact that, that had on the gross margin for last year, I would say for the year, you probably take out about 0.7%. So that gets you to a base -- a normalized base of 52%.

因此，如果你抵銷掉這對去年毛利率造成的巨大影響，我想說，今年的毛利率可能會下降約 0.7%。這樣就得到了一個基準——標準化基準為 52%。

And then there's a few things. First off, the NXE pricing, which is primarily driven by the fact that we only have these in this year in comparison to the mix of last year. That would give you about 1.5%. And then we talked a little bit about the High-NA impact on the gross margin. That's a little bit higher this year than it was last year. I would expect about 0.5% there. So if you do -- if you add it all up, then you get a 53%. Then there's a little bit of a swing factor as to the composition of deep UV in terms of dry versus immersion. At this stage, we expect both of them to grow about 20%. So I would say it's about neutral for the gross margin. But that's the buildup to the 53%.

然後還有一些事情。首先，NXE 定價主要是因為與去年的組合相比，我們今年只有這些。這會為你帶來大約 1.5% 的收益。然後我們稍微討論了高 NA 對毛利率的影響。今年的水平比去年略高一些。我預計該比例約為 0.5%。所以如果你這樣做——如果你把所有數字加起來，那麼你會得到 53%。然後，就乾法和浸法而言，深紫外線的成分存在一些搖擺因素。現階段我們預期兩者都將成長20%左右。所以我認為毛利率是中性的。但這是達到 53% 的水平。

In terms of OpEx, we've only guided the numbers for Q1, as we typically do, only for the quarter. But I think it's safe to say that the 4% on SG&A and 14% on R&D, I think those assumptions are a safe assumptions for the full year. And then obviously, on the basis of the EUR 22.3 billion, that sort of implied in the 20% year-on-year growth for revenue.

在營運支出方面，我們僅給出了第一季的數據指引，正如我們通常的做法，僅針對本季。但我認為可以肯定地說，銷售、一般及行政費用佔 4%，研發費用佔 14%，我認為這些假設對全年來說是安全的假設。顯然，以 223 億歐元為基礎，這意味著營收年增 20%。

We actually gave you complete P&L.

我們實際上已經為您提供了完整的損益表。

Roger, you already helped me with my model.

羅傑，你已經幫我完成模型了。

And I just had a quick follow-up for Peter or Roger. The 20% growth in deep UV this year, can you give some color into how much of that you expect DUV memory to grow? And how much your DUV for foundry growth this year? And I think, Roger, you mentioned dry and immersion is roughly split half-half this year. Is that correct?

我剛剛對 Peter 或 Roger 進行了快速跟進。今年深紫外線 (Deep UV) 成長了 20%，您能否透露一下預計 DUV 記憶體將成長多少？今年代工成長的 DUV 是多少？羅傑，我認為你提到的乾式教學和浸式教學今年大致各佔一半。對嗎？

That is correct. That is what I said. I expect both to go up about -- with the same percentage, about 20%.

沒錯。我就是這麼說的。我預計兩者都會上漲大約——相同的百分比，大約 20%。

And then we gave you the numbers for the increase in Memory and Logic, and I gave you the EUV number for Memory. So frankly, I think that's given you all the building blocks you need to come up with the right number there.

然後我們給了你內存和邏輯增加的數字，我還給了你內存的 EUV 數字。所以坦白說，我認為這為您提供了得出正確數字所需的所有基本要素。

And just to remind you, the Logic will be up more than 20% year-on-year, and Memory up to around 20% year-on-year. So -- and then with the EUV numbers, you can probably figure it out.

需要提醒您的是，邏輯將同比增長 20% 以上，內存將同比增長 20% 左右。所以——然後透過 EUV 數字，你大概就能弄清楚了。

Our next question comes from Aleksander Peterc with Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的亞歷山大‧彼得 (Aleksander Peterc)。

Just very briefly on fast shipments. Do I understand it correctly that this will now become systematic for EUV going forward. And so this would then imply that you take the biggest hit from this kind of new practice in '22? And from '23, the impact should then be negligible as you have only a little more revenue deferred then what you recognized from the previous year, but it then cancels out. Is that a correct way of looking at things?

只是非常簡單地介紹一下快速出貨的情況。我是否理解正確，這將成為 EUV 未來發展的系統。那麼這是否意味著您將在 2022 年受到這種新做法的最大打擊？從 23 年開始，影響應該可以忽略不計，因為您的遞延收入僅比上一年確認的收入多一點，但它會被抵消。這是正確的看待事物的方式嗎？

Yes. Aleksander, I think you see it right. So -- and it's not just for NXE. So we also do this for immersion. So it's the combination of those 2. And at least for this year, this will be the standard practice.

是的。亞歷山大，我想你看得對。所以——它不僅適用於 NXE。因此，我們也這樣做是為了沉浸其中。所以這是兩者的結合。至少在今年，這將是標準做法。

And then if you look at this year, as we mentioned to you, there's about EUR 2 billion that falls into subsequent quarters as a result of this as it relates to Q1. What we're going to do is try and at least try and limit the installation time, both for NXEs and for immersion tools as a result of which the impact by the end of the year should be a lot lower because we try to make the delta between the shipment movement and the acceptance by the customer that made [that more]. And we think we can squeeze out 2 maybe even 3 weeks in the install time in order to get there. So that's what we're driving.

然後，如果您看看今年，正如我們向您提到的那樣，由於與第一季相關的原因，大約有 20 億歐元將進入後續季度。我們要做的是嘗試並至少嘗試限制安裝時間，包括 NXE 和浸入式工具，這樣到年底的影響應該會小很多，因為我們試圖縮小裝運量和客戶驗收之間的差距。我們認為我們可以擠出 2 週甚至 3 週的安裝時間來實現這一目標。這就是我們所追求的。

And as a result of that, it is our expectation that the amount at the end of this year, I mean, we referenced the 6 EUV tools, so that would be about EUR 1 billion. So that's what we're trying to work towards. That the spillover, if you like, from the last quarter into the next quarter is going to be only about EUR 1 billion.

因此，我們預計今年年底的金額（我的意思是，我們參考了 6 個 EUV 工具）將達到約 10 億歐元。這就是我們努力的方向。如果你願意的話，從上個季度到下一個季度的溢出效應將只有大約 10 億歐元。

That's what we're driving towards. So that means that during the year, we're going to gain, if you like, about EUR 1 billion in the subsequent quarters and are only going to lose for the full year EUR 1 billion into next year.

這正是我們努力的方向。所以這意味著，在這一年中，如果你願意的話，我們將在接下來的幾季中獲利約 10 億歐元，而到明年全年只會虧損 10 億歐元。

Whether this will be the standard practice for years to come? We'll just see how this works, if this works well as we anticipate for ourselves and also for the customers, if we can really prove as we've done in last year that we can do this without a quality impact, if you like, in the field, and we are pretty comfortable that we can do that, then I think this will be appreciated by the customer and also leads to efficiency on our end. So then indeed also for subsequent years, this will be the practice. And then indeed, you won't have any impact anymore in the years to come.

這是否會成為未來幾年的標準做法？我們將觀察其效果如何，如果其效果如我們預期的那樣，對我們自己和客戶都有好處，如果我們能夠像去年那樣真正證明我們可以在不影響質量的情況下做到這一點，並且我們對能夠做到這一點感到非常滿意，那麼我認為這將受到客戶的讚賞，同時也會提高我們的效率。所以，在接下來的幾年裡，我們都會這麼做。那麼，在未來的幾年裡，你確實不會再產生任何影響了。

Yes. And one small addition to that, this will apply to systems that we have whether it's -- there is a significant enough level of confidence that we don't run into acceptance problems in the field. So let's say, the first type of a new tool probably the first 4 or 5 systems you will probably do the traditional factory acceptance test in Veldhoven just to make sure that if you run into any issue, that there is a big R&D group that can actually help you solve the problem instead of moving that problem to the field.

是的。除此之外還有一點，這將適用於我們擁有的系統，無論它是否具有足夠高的信心，我們都不會在該領域遇到接受問題。因此，假設第一個新工具（可能是前 4 或 5 個系統）可能會在 Veldhoven 進行傳統的工廠驗收測試，只是為了確保如果遇到任何問題，有一個大型研發團隊可以真正幫助您解決問題，而不是將問題轉移到現場。

So I would have completely comply with what Roger said with the exception that on what we call new product introduction, in the first couple of tools, we'll probably do the traditional way, okay.

因此，我會完全遵守羅傑所說的，但對於我們所謂的新產品介紹，在前幾個工具中，我們可能會採用傳統的方式，好的。

Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question on gross margins. If I take that 53% and what you guided Q1, it looks like you're going to exit the year at roughly 54%. Is that the right number to use? .

我想第一個問題是關於毛利率的。如果我採用 53% 以及您對第一季的預測，那麼看起來您今年的業績將達到大約 54%。這個數字正確嗎？ 。

And as part of that, that is the low end of your 2025 target model. So I guess, I'd love to hear your thoughts on, what you're going to do here exiting calendar '22 and the confidence that provides to you in terms of your future outlook?

作為其中的一部分，這是 2025 年目標模型的低端。所以我想，我很想聽聽您的想法，關於您在 22 年後要做什麼，以及這對您的未來前景有何信心？

Yes. C.J., so somewhere in the year, indeed, if we want to get to 53% for the full year, and we start with 49% somewhere in the year will have higher percentages. And also, as I mentioned, somewhere in the year, we will gain on the revenue side, right, on the sales side because we lose EUR 2 billion in the first quarter, only EUR 1 billion for the year. So we're somewhat going to gain the [EUR 1 billion]. So -- and of course, those 2 are related. Whether all of that is going to be in Q4? I cannot tell you.

是的。 C.J.，所以在一年中的某個時候，確實，如果我們想在全年達到 53%，而我們從 49% 開始，那麼在一年中的某個時候，百分比會更高。而且，正如我所提到的，在今年的某個時候，我們的營收、銷售額都會有所成長，因為我們在第一季虧損了 20 億歐元，而全年只虧損了 10 億歐元。因此我們將會獲得 [10 億歐元]。所以——當然，這兩者是相關的。所有這些是否都會在第四季實現？我不能告訴你。

So somewhere in the course of this year, we are going to see an improvement of the gross margin beyond the 53%. But bear with me, it's a little bit too early to already start making predictions on the gross margin for '23.

因此，今年某個時候，我們將看到毛利率提高到 53% 以上。但請耐心等待，現在開始預測 23 年的毛利率還為時過早。

That's helpful. I guess maybe a bigger picture question for you, regarding visibility. I think this is the highest kind of backlog coverage you've ever had as a company. And I guess, obviously, part of that EUV related and obviously part of it is the supply constraints out there. But just curious, how do you think about that? And I guess, how are you thinking about the capacity you need to add into, I think, you talked about a $1 trillion kind of semiconductor market and the confidence you have today on 2023 revenue growth?

這很有幫助。我想也許對你來說這是一個更大的問題，關於可見性。我認為這是貴公司有史以來最高的積壓訂單覆蓋率。我想，顯然，這部分與 EUV 有關，顯然部分原因在於供應限制。但只是好奇，您對此有何看法？我想，您如何考慮需要增加的產能，我想，您談到了 1 兆美元的半導體市場，以及您對 2023 年營收成長的信心？

Yes, I think it's a very good number. It's a very good question. I can't give you the exact number. But one thing is for sure that we will ship more systems, deep UV and EUV in 2020 as compared to 2021. And it's my expectation the same thing will happen in 2023.

是的，我認為這是一個非常好的數字。這是一個非常好的問題。我無法給你確切的數字。但有一點是肯定的，與 2021 年相比，我們在 2020 年將出貨更多的系統、深紫外線和 EUV。我預計 2023 年也會出現同樣的事情。

And as a matter of fact, I also expect that in 2023, our EUV shipments will go over 60 systems. And part of it has to do with the cycle time reduction we talked about, could be through fast shipments and through shortening the installation times. Yes, that will happen.

事實上，我還預計到 2023 年，我們的 EUV 出貨量將超過 60 套系統。其中一部分與我們討論的縮短週期時間有關，可以透過快速出貨和縮短安裝時間來實現。是的，那會發生。

And also for deep UV, I think we can still squeeze, start squeezing and reducing cycle time in the supply chain, so we can do potentially more systems next year than we do this year.

對於深紫外線，我認為我們仍然可以壓縮，開始壓縮並減少供應鏈中的週期時間，因此明年我們可能會比今年生產更多的系統。

Having said that, I think we're still in a situation where, and I said it on the video, but also on several occasions today, that the demands for all our technology also specifically deep UVs, so significantly higher than what we can currently make. When we look at our maximum capacity today, I think the demand, which is not, with all respect, the demand which customers would like to give us an order, but they don't because we don't have the capacity, to be around 40% higher than what we can make.

話雖如此，我認為我們仍然處於這樣一種情況，我在視頻中說過，今天也在多個場合說過，對我們所有技術的需求，特別是深紫外線，遠遠高於我們目前所能製造的水平。當我們考慮我們今天的最大產能時，我認為需求比我們所能生產的產量高出約 40%，恕我直言，這並不是客戶願意給我們訂單，但由於我們沒有產能而沒有下訂單的需求。

Everything moves out. So what we cannot ship today, we'll move to 2023. So now what we cannot ship in 2023, we'll move to 2024. And that actually means that we need to add capacity beyond what we're currently planning. And that is exactly what we're doing today. I think we had a capacity plan beyond 2023 that we are currently have decided on. But we haven't had this internally, but we haven't gone for that fully yet in the supply chain with our critical suppliers, which we will do this quarter.

一切都搬出去了。因此，我們今天無法發貨的產品將推遲到 2023 年發貨。因此，我們目前無法在 2023 年出貨的產品將延後到 2024 年出貨。這實際上意味著我們需要在目前計劃的範圍之外增加產能。這正是我們今天所做的事。我認為我們有一個 2023 年以後的產能計劃，目前我們已經決定了。但我們內部還沒有這樣做，而且我們還沒有在與關鍵供應商的供應鏈中完全實現這一點，我們將在本季完成這項工作。

So I think we want to be in a situation that, starting 2024, we will be able to meet whatever demand the customers have. I think we are in a situation where on leading-edge immersion and EUV, the customers have nowhere to go. And we don't want to keep pushing excess demand being described as the demand over our maximum capacity to move -- constantly move into the next year.

因此，我認為我們希望從 2024 年開始能夠滿足客戶的任何需求。我認為我們正處於這樣一種境地：在尖端浸入式和 EUV 方面，客戶無處可去。我們不想繼續推動過度需求，即超過我們最大產能的需求——不斷地進入下一年。

So this is what we are doing. I already gave you an indication on the EUV for 2023, that will be above 60 because of all the measures that we have taken. But I think we also -- we are -- we have taken internally the decision that we indeed need to increase our capacity beyond that. And that will be something which we will be discussing with you probably, hopefully, when we get early confirmation from our critical suppliers next quarter.

這就是我們正在做的事情。我已經給出了關於 2023 年 EUV 的預測，由於我們採取的所有措施，該數字將超過 60。但我認為，我們也——我們——我們已經在內部做出了決定，我們確實需要進一步提高我們的產能。當我們下個季度從關鍵供應商獲得早期確認時，我們可能會與您討論這個問題。

Our next question comes from Sandeep Deshpande with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

I mean my question is actually a sort of follow-up. But when I look at your 2025 guidance, Peter, you've guided to EUR 25 billion to EUR 30 billion in sales. But when you look at your sales over the last 4 -- sorry, your orders over the last 4 quarters and add to that your Installed Base Management, you're already running at a 4-quarter run rate of over EUR 31 billion et cetera. So is the -- well, does the 2025 guidance need to be updated, or do you think that this was a different sort of period we've been in? Or how should we looking at that 2025 guidance of ASML?

我的意思是我的問題實際上是一種後續問題。但當我查看您的 2025 年指引時，彼得，您指引的銷售額為 250 億歐元至 300 億歐元。但是，當您查看過去 4 個季度的銷售額時——抱歉，是過去 4 個季度的訂單，再加上已安裝基礎管理，您會發現 4 個季度的運行率已經超過 310 億歐元等等。那麼，2025 年的指導方針是否需要更新，或者您是否認為這是我們所處的一個不同時期？或者我們應該如何看待 ASML 的 2025 年指引？

Yes. Well, let's do everything in the right order, yes. And that's first, look at the customer demand and the demand curves and have very in-depth discussion, as you know, with our customers on their CapEx plans and their CapEx plans are driven by what they currently see as being short in customer demand, not only for this year and for next year, but longer term.

是的。好吧，讓我們按照正確的順序做所有事情，是的。首先，看看客戶需求和需求曲線，並與我們的客戶就他們的資本支出計劃進行非常深入的討論，他們的資本支出計劃是由他們目前認為的客戶需求短缺所驅動的，不僅是今年和明年，而且是長期的。

And I can only remind you of the very, let's say, confident messages that our customers have given over the last few days on how they feel about the strength of the demand. And we can also go into the details why we think the longer-term demand will be higher.

我只能提醒大家，我們的客戶在過去幾天裡就他們對需求強度的感受給了非常自信的訊息。我們也可以詳細說明為什麼我們認為長期需求會更高。

And having said that, on top of that, there's going to be a push by the drive for technological sovereignty, there will be incentives around the globe to actually build that capacity. That comes on top, which I don't think will translate into significant fast capacity anywhere before 2024 and it will be 2024 at the earliest, probably more like 2025, 2026.

話雖如此，除此之外，在技術主權的推動下，全球各地都會有動力去真正建立這種能力。最重要的是，我認為在 2024 年之前，這不會轉化為顯著的快速容量，最早也要到 2024 年，可能更可能是 2025 年、2026 年。

Having said that and going back to the previous question, I think this is why we are looking at our maximum capacity for us and in the supply chain. And I gave the answer. I think this is the work that we're doing today. And when we have that confirmed that we can actually do that, then that would be the time also to relook at the guidance and to see whether we should indeed adjust some of the numbers that we gave you a quarter ago.

話雖如此，回到上一個問題，我認為這就是我們關注我們自身和供應鏈的最大產能的原因。我給了答案。我想這就是我們今天所做的工作。當我們確認我們確實可以做到這一點時，那也是重新審視指導意見並看看我們是否確實應該調整一個季度前給您的一些數字的時候。

But that -- in that order, we have to get ourselves comfortable with the demand situation vis-a-vis our customers. We are translating that into a capacity number, which we need to get confirmed with our key supplier scenario, the size and [terms and VDLs] of this world, that needs to be confirmed, and that will leads to construction activities, where you're likely need to read at square meters. And that means if you have that confirmation, we can say, okay, when we have that, looking at the demand situation, what should we do with the 2025 range that we gave you. And when we have concluded that, we will come back to you with that information.

但是，按照這個順序，我們必須讓自己適應客戶的需求狀況。我們正在將其轉化為產能數字，我們需要根據主要供應商的情況來確認，這個世界的規模和[條款和VDL]需要確認，這將導致建設活動，你可能需要以平方米為單位讀取。這意味著，如果您得到了確認，我們可以說，好的，當我們得到確認後，根據需求情況，我們應該如何處理我們給您的 2025 年範圍。當我們得出結論時，我們會將該資訊回饋給您。

Just one quick follow-up on. I mean, you've indicated in your recent release that you've got a new e-beam tool shipping. Is this e-beam business now going to become much more significant in the next few years as these new tools shipped? Because I mean, clearly, your lithography business has flourished massively, but your e-beam business has been slower to take off. So can you make any comments on that? .

只需快速跟進一次。我的意思是，您在最近的發布中表示您已經獲得了一種新的電子束工具發貨。隨著這些新工具的推出，電子束業務在未來幾年是否會變得更加重要？因為我的意思是，顯然，你們的光刻業務已經蓬勃發展，但你們的電子束業務起步較慢。那麼您對此能發表什麼評論嗎？ 。

Yes. I think the fact that I think the 5x5 beam the inspection tool the 1100, I mean, this is definitely a tool -- actually, I think it's been packed today. So that will ship. We have high expectations of it. It looks good as when we ship to our first customer. And yes, when we get the qualification of that tool, I believe that's going to be a driver for higher sales numbers for our e-beam business. Next to the fact that our single beam business will stay also strong.

是的。我認為事實上我認為 5x5 梁檢查工具 1100，我的意思是，這絕對是一個工具 - 實際上，我認為它今天已經打包好了。這樣就可以出貨了。我們對此抱有很高的期望。它看起來就像我們發送給第一位客戶一樣好。是的，當我們獲得該工具的資格時，我相信這將成為我們電子束業務更高銷售額的驅動力。除此之外，我們的單樑業務也將保持強勁。

Our next question comes from Francois Bouvignies with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Francois Bouvignies。

Francois, if your phone is on mute, please unmute, so you may ask your question.

弗朗索瓦，如果您的手機處於靜音狀態，請取消靜音，這樣您就可以提出您的問題。

Can you hear me now?

現在你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes, I can hear you.

是的，我聽得到你的聲音。

Yes. Yes. Sorry about that. So my question actually was on High-NA. And the release you did with Intel. And you disclosed 4 orders back in '18. Now you had an order last quarter, you were discussing another one with Intel today. .

是的。是的。很抱歉。所以我的問題其實是關於 High-NA 的。以及您與英特爾合作發表的產品。您在 18 年就揭露了 4 個訂單。上個季度您已經收到了一份訂單，今天您正在與英特爾討論另一份訂單。 。

And in addition, you changed your disclosure of the net bookings, including High-NA now. So my question is should -- what should we expect going forward in terms of High-NA in terms of activity? Should we see more and more High-NA going forward in the following quarters?

此外，您也改變了淨預訂量的揭露，包括現在的 High-NA。所以我的問題是——就活動而言，我們應該對 High-NA 的未來有何期待？我們是否應該在接下來的幾季看到越來越多的高 NA？

And coming back to your 2025 guidance, with 5 (inaudible) of High-NA, you have 65, if I count correctly in your backlog now, so how should we think about this moving part and your forecast out of 2025?

回到您對 2025 年的指導，如果我現在正確地計算您的積壓訂單，那麼加上 5 個（聽不清）高 NA，您就有 65 個，那麼我們應該如何看待這個移動部分以及您對 2025 年的預測？

Yes. I think on the 2025 number, we also said in my introductory comments that the EXE:5000, which is the R&D tool, which is the development tool. So there's 5 of it that will be shipped starting in 2022 through 2024. So in 2025, it's the High-NA tool. It's the one that we that's a 5200, that's the one that we received the first order for this quarter, the first quarter of 2022.

是的。我認為關於 2025 年這個數字，我們在介紹性評論中也提到 EXE:5000，即研發工具，即開發工具。因此，其中 5 個將於 2022 年至 2024 年間出貨。因此，在 2025 年，它將成為高 NA 工具。這是我們 5200，這是我們本季（2022 年第一季）收到的第一份訂單。

I think yes, so you will expect or you may expect. But given the long lead times of these tools, there is going to be more order activity for the High-NA 5200 going forward. I would expect that. But that's driven by indeed the shipment plan 2025.

我認為是的，所以你會期待或你可能期待。但考慮到這些工具的較長交貨時間，未來 High-NA 5200 的訂單活動將會更多。我期望如此。但這確實是由 2025 年出貨計畫推動的。

Now, I think it was Sandeep that asked the question on the 2025 model. I think that this is not a time to piecemeal and give you that 2025 model, but we'll come back to that. But I think High-NA is not so much connected in 2025 to, let's say, the size of the industry and the demand in the industry. It's really technology transition.

現在，我認為是 Sandeep 提出了有關 2025 模型的問題。我認為現在還不是逐步給出 2025 年模型的時候，我們以後會再討論這個問題。但我認為，到 2025 年，高 NA 與產業規模和產業需求的連結並不那麼緊密。這確實是技術轉型。

So the way it looks now, I think we're still pretty solid on the plan. I think we -- and I think we said it in the last quarter, with the big evolutionary step from Low-NA to High-NA was the optics. Basically, bigger optics, very significant challenges in measuring the mirrors, and we succeeded. It was a success. It is a success, so we can execute. And this is what we are doing now.

所以從現在來看，我認為我們的計畫還是相當可靠的。我認為我們——而且我認為我們在上個季度就說過，從低NA到高NA的重大進化步驟是光學。基本上，更大的光學元件，測量鏡子的非常大的挑戰，但我們成功了。這是一次成功。這是一次成功，所以我們可以執行。這正是我們現在正在做的事情。

I mean if you go to the Veldhoven factory now, you would see this massive tool. I mean we showed during the press conference that kind of a picture of some of our engineers, the production engineers in front of to frame. Now you can just see the size of the thing we're executing.

我的意思是，如果你現在去 Veldhoven 工廠，你會看到這個巨大的工具。我的意思是，我們在新聞發布會上展示了一些我們的工程師、生產工程師在框架前面的照片。現在您可以看到我們正在執行的操作的大小。

And I think receiving the first order for 5200, which is going to have, let's say, new standards, setting new standards for lithographic performance in terms of imaging and overlay, it also sets a new standards for productivity. So like Roger said at the press conference, this is the tool that will go for a price very significantly over EUR 300 million.

我認為，接到 5200 的第一筆訂單將會有新的標準，為成像和覆蓋範圍的光刻性能設定新的標準，也為生產力設定新的標準。因此，正如羅傑在新聞發布會上所說的那樣，這款工具的價格將遠遠超過 3 億歐元。

First of all, one additional comment on the 5 as we also said at the Investor Day, the reason we have 5 there is not because of shipments because I expect more shipments in 2025 than 5. The reason we said in all scenario is 5 is because of revenue recognition because this is an entirely new product. And therefore, it's hard to predict at this point in time how the installation is going to happen. How the testing is going to pan out, et cetera, et cetera. So that's why we said very conservatively, just put 5 into any model. So it's not related to volume or shipments. It's just a pretty conservative estimate that might take a bit longer before these are actually recognized with reference. So that's why we put in 5.

首先，關於 5 還有一個補充評論，正如我們在投資者日所說的那樣，我們之所以有 5 並不是因為出貨量，因為我預計 2025 年的出貨量將超過 5。我們在所有情況下都說 5 是因為收入確認，因為這是一個全新的產品。因此，目前很難預測安裝將如何進行。測試將如何進行，等等。這就是為什麼我們非常保守地說，只需將 5 放入任何模型中。所以這與數量或出貨量無關。這只是一個相當保守的估計，可能還需要更長的時間才能真正被認可和參考。這就是我們輸入 5 的原因。

That's very clear. And maybe just a quick follow-up on the supply constraint, which was a highlight last quarter, I believe, and you don't talk too much about supply concern anymore. So should we read that it's improving and you see the risk less important now? I mean how should we think about the supply constraints that you had last quarter? And how is it now?

這非常清楚。也許只是對供應限制進行快速跟進，我相信這是上個季度的一個亮點，你不再談論太多供應問題了。那麼我們是否應該認為情況正在改善並且您認為現在風險不那麼重要了？我的意思是我們應該如何看待上個季度遇到的供應限制？現在怎麼樣了？

Yes, I think it hasn't eased. The fact is, if life is tough, you just adjust to it. I mean, and that's what we're doing. So basically, it's a fact of life, and it's a daily battle of our sourcing people to make sure that we get guarantees on supply -- in the supply chain because we don't buy those components. Those components are being bought by our suppliers. But what we do, we actually consolidate the shortages, which is especially components, microchips from different layers in the supply chain. .

是的，我認為它還沒有緩解。事實是，如果生活很艱難，你只能去適應它。我的意思是，這就是我們正在做的事情。所以基本上，這是一個現實問題，我們的採購人員每天都在努力確保我們在供應鏈中獲得供應保障，因為我們不會購買這些零件。這些零件均由我們的供應商購買。但我們所做的其實是整合短缺，尤其是來自供應鏈不同層級的零件和微晶片。 。

So we actually consolidated and we bring it into what we call a [scarcity] center. And then we classify those components by semiconductor manufacturer. And then we get on the phone with them and then say, "Can you help us, you really can help us by what's on stock giving it to us or helping us through -- manage that through the broker system or the distributor system or making sure that those particular chips get somewhere" and it's not many. I mean, it's a few hundred to a few thousand of a certain type because we don't make that many systems.

因此我們實際上進行了整合，並將其帶入所謂的「稀缺」中心。然後我們根據半導體製造商對這些組件進行分類。然後我們打電話給他們，然後說，「你能幫助我們嗎，你真的可以透過把庫存提供給我們或幫助我們透過經紀人系統或經銷商系統管理它或確保那些特定的晶片到達某個地方來幫助我們」但幫助不多。我的意思是，某種類型只有幾百到幾千個，因為我們沒有製造那麼多系統。

And that's how we manage this. And we're able to do this day by day by day. But I don't think the situation has gotten any better. It's just that we got better at managing it.

這就是我們的處理方式。我們每天都能做到這一點。但我並不認為情況有任何改善。只是我們管理得更好了。

Our next question comes from Didier Scemama with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Didier Scemama。

I just wanted to check or double check a couple of things on EUV for next year. So can you talk a little bit about what your capacity will be for Low-NA and High-NA? And then what do you think could be the shipment number for '23 versus the revenue, at least the unit? So because obviously you've got 6 units shifting from '22 to '23. So if you can help me understand that. And I've got a quick follow-up for Roger on the cash flow.

我只是想檢查或再檢查一下明年 EUV 的幾件事。那麼，您能否稍微談談您對低 NA 和高 NA 的容量是多少？那麼您認為 23 年的出貨量與收入（至少是單位）相比會是多少？顯然，有 6 個單位從 22 年轉移到 23 年。所以如果你能幫助我理解這一點。我對羅傑的現金流情況進行了快速跟進。

Didier, on the -- what we expect for 2023, as Peter pointed out, we are working on a capacity over 60 for next year. So that's on Low-NA. We would get the benefit of the 6 going from '22 into '23. Frankly, we would also, if we continue to do a fast ship have a few systems go from '23 into '24.

迪迪埃，正如彼得指出的那樣，我們對 2023 年的預期是，我們正在努力使明年的產能超過 60。這就是 Low-NA。從 22 年到 23 年，我們將享受 6 帶來的好處。坦白說，如果我們繼續快速發展，我們也會將一些系統從 23 年延續到 24 年。

So if we're able to continue to drive down installation time, we might gain 1, maybe 2 systems. But net-net, I think for next year, you should expect output in revenue to more and more be at the same level. So I think the over 60 in terms of capacity that Peter referenced, I think, is probably the number to look at.

因此，如果我們能夠繼續縮短安裝時間，我們可能會獲得 1 個，甚至 2 個系統。但總體而言，我認為明年的收入產出應該會越來越接近同一水平。因此，我認為彼得提到的容量超過 60 可能是值得關注的數字。

In terms of High-NA, it's going to be very, very small, right, into 2023 because we expect to have the first shipment of the key modules in -- at the end of 2023. But I wouldn't hold my breath whether that leads to revenue recognition in '23.

就高 NA 而言，到 2023 年，它的規模將非常非常小，因為我們預計將在 2023 年底收到第一批關鍵模組。但我不敢肯定這是否會導致 2023 年的收入確認。

Understood, very clear, Roger. So on the cash flow, you had a sort of an exceptional working cap in Q4 and amazing free cash for the full year. I just wondered if you could help us understand effectively what's your free cash flow expectation for fiscal year '22 and when do you think the working cap normalizes in your cash flow statement roughly, is it first half, second half, Roger, that would be helpful.

明白了，非常清楚，羅傑。因此，就現金流而言，您在第四季度擁有一種特殊的營運上限，並且全年擁有驚人的自由現金。我只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們有效地了解您對 22 財年的自由現金流預期是多少，以及您認為現金流量表中的營運上限大致在何時正常化，是上半年還是下半年，羅傑，這將會有所幫助。

Yes. So you're right. So I think last year was a pretty spectacular year from a cash flow perspective. We had net income of EUR 5.9 million and free cash flow of [EUR 9.9 million]. So that's a pretty good significant conversion rate. But that was exceptional. I think it was exceptional, primarily driven by the huge order intake that we had this year and the huge contingent of EUV, and that's a primary source of down payments in there. .

是的。所以你是對的。因此我認為從現金流角度來看去年是相當出色的一年。我們的淨收入為 590 萬歐元，自由現金流為 [990 萬歐元]。所以這是一個相當不錯的轉換率。但那是例外。我認為這是例外，主要是由於我們今年的大量訂單和龐大的 EUV 需求，這也是首付的主要來源。 。

But I would expect for this year to more and more neutralize that. So we're never guiding free cash flow, but I would say, to have an expectation that in a steady state, we're going to look at somewhere around 100% or a little bit below that because we're still growing, I think it's probably a safe assumption for the free cash flow development in the years to come.

但我預計今年這種情況會逐漸得到緩解。因此，我們從未指導自由現金流，但我想說，我們預期在穩定狀態下，我們將看到 100％ 左右或略低於這個數字，因為我們仍在增長，我認為對於未來幾年的自由現金流發展來說，這可能是一個安全的假設。

Yes, you mean 100% cash conversion rate?

是的，你的意思是 100% 的現金轉換率？

Cash conversion rate, exactly. Yes.

現金轉換率，沒錯。是的。

Our next question comes from Amit Harchandani with Citi. .

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Amit Harchandani。 。

Amit Harchandani from Citi. Two questions, if I may. My first question, Peter, goes back to the comments you have made about assessing your capacity and supply. As ASML continues to get bigger, obviously, there's this whole talk about geopolitics in the background. How are you strategically thinking about bringing this capacity online? Are you going to pursue the way you have? Are you looking at doing more vertical integration? Is it more regional diversification? Just trying to get a sense of how you're looking at it, in terms of strategically adding capacity as you look to build for the next 5 to 10 years. And I have a follow-up.

花旗銀行的 Amit Harchandani。請問我有兩個問題。彼得，我的第一個問題是回顧您關於評估您的能力和供應的評論。隨著 ASML 規模不斷擴大，顯然，其背後存在著有關地緣政治的討論。您如何從策略角度考慮將這項能力投入使用？你還要繼續堅持你原來的道路嗎？您是否正在考慮進行更多的垂直整合？區域多元化程度是否較高？我只是想了解一下您是如何看待這個問題的，從戰略上增加產能的角度考慮，您打算在未來 5 到 10 年內進行建設。我還有一個後續問題。

Yes, I think, if you have been at our supervisory board meeting. I mean, this is, of course, the question that we are addressing not only asking ourselves because we already did that, but we're addressing these questions.

是的，我想，如果你參加過我們的監事會會議的話。我的意思是，這當然是我們正在解決的問題，我們不僅要問自己，因為我們已經這樣做了，而且我們正在解決這些問題。

I think vertical integration, to answer that question, I don't think that is something which we -- I would say, we try to avoid it. Sometimes we are forced to it. I mean, based on the Berliner Glas, vertical integration, we actually acquired a supplier. But that had some very clear reasons. I mean they had to do with succession planning at the supply, but also that the technology at that particular supply became more and more critical for the performance of the system. So it's not an active -- it is more, you could say that is more a reactive way of looking at growth.

我認為垂直整合，要回答這個問題，我不認為這是我們——我想說，我們會試圖避免它。有時我們是被迫這麼做的。我的意思是，基於柏林玻璃的垂直整合，我們實際上收購了一家供應商。但這有一些非常明確的原因。我的意思是，他們必須制定供應方面的繼任計劃，但特定供應方面的技術對於系統的性能也變得越來越重要。所以它不是一種主動的——你可以說它是一種看待成長的被動的方式。

Geographical, clearly, but it's -- but geographical and especially against the background of the geopolitical discussions that are ongoing, of course, is something which is highly sensitive. So -- but yes, we actually look at if we need to build capacity, what's the best place to go to test? What are the best conditions to add capacity, which is a number of issues that we will look at. It has to do with the availability of suppliers that can help us, workforce talent.

顯然是地理問題，但地理問題，特別是在正在進行的地緣政治討論的背景下，當然是高度敏感的問題。所以——但是是的，我們實際上正在考慮是否需要建立能力，最好的測試地點是哪裡？增加容量的最佳條件是什麼，這是我們將要研究的一些問題。這與能夠幫助我們的供應商和勞動力人才的可用性有關。

Are we going somewhere where we know we will be heavily competing for workforce talent with some other major players or you could say, giants, that would, of course, put you into more difficult situation. It is incentives that can be provided by governments. I mean -- and that includes the -- where we currently have our manufacturing locations, but also we are looking at areas where we might not have significant manufacturing, but we could.

我們是否會去某個地方，在那裡我們會與其他一些主要參與者或巨頭激烈競爭勞動力人才，這當然會讓你陷入更困難的境地。這是政府可以提供的激勵措施。我的意思是——這包括——我們目前的製造地點，但我們也在尋找可能沒有大量製造但可以的地區。

So I think these are all things that we are looking at. It's too early to give you a finite answer. And I think when we come to the conclusion that we need to go public, we will go public. But these are all the things that we are discussing right now in the company, in the management board and with the supervisory board, because you are right, we need to add significant capacity. I mean, this is not 5% to 10% extra.

所以我認為這些都是我們正在關注的事情。現在給你一個明確的答案還為時過早。我認為，當我們得出結論認為我們需要上市時，我們就會上市。但這些都是我們現在在公司、管理委員會和監事會討論的事情，因為你是對的，我們需要大幅增加產能。我的意思是，這不是額外的 5% 到 10%。

And as an unrelated follow-up, you've talked about demand being unprecedented and significantly higher than capacity. Of course, you put forth your simulation scenarios at the CMD last year. In terms of trying to manage against the risk of over-ordering, double ordering, what are you doing in terms of the check discussion with your customers? We know the secular trends are positive and the industry will remain cyclical. But what are you doing from your side to minimize, if I may call it, the potential risk of oversupply once this capacity all comes online?

作為一個不相關的後續問題，您談到需求是前所未有的，並且遠高於容量。當然，您在去年的 CMD 上提出了您的模擬場景。在試圖控製過度訂購、重複訂購的風險方面，您在與客戶討論帳單方面做了什麼？我們知道長期趨勢是積極的，並且該行業將保持週期性。但是，如果可以這麼說的話，你們正在採取什麼措施來盡量減少一旦這些產能全部上線後出現供應過剩的潛在風險呢？

Yes. One major thing is that our build capacity, I mean, still, when you look at our cost of sales, and Roger can comment on that. The vast majority of our cost of sales is what we buy. So I think for ASML to add -- build capacity is the minority of our cost of sales. Because we're basically outsourcing, which is one of the reasons why we are not actively pursuing vertical integration. We actually love the fact that we have suppliers that are better at what they do than what we do.

是的。一個主要的事情是我們的建立能力，我的意思是，當你看看我們的銷售成本時，羅傑可以對此發表評論。我們的銷售成本絕大部分來自於我們購買的產品。因此我認為對 ASML 來說，產能建置只是我們銷售成本的一小部分。因為我們基本上就是外包，這也是我們沒有積極追求垂直整合的原因之一。事實上，我們很高興看到我們的供應商比我們做得更好。

So having said that, we are not afraid of investing in capacity nor is our supply chain, which is most of our critical suppliers are either like size or exactly the same position as we have and some other supplies are more diversified. So they are able to grow.

話雖如此，我們並不害怕投資產能，我們的供應鏈也不害怕，我們的大多數關鍵供應商要么規模與我們相同，要么地位與我們完全相同，而其他一些供應商則更加多樣化。所以它們能夠成長。

But it's -- you are right. There is always this risk of looking at where we are today, listening to the CapEx expansion plans of our major customers in Asia and in the U.S., looking at the geopolitical situation and striving for more technological sovereignty, not complete, but more with incentive programs means that yes, we will add capacity.

但這是——你是對的。始終存在這種風險，我們需要審視當前的狀況，聽取亞洲和美國主要客戶的資本支出擴張計劃，關注地緣政治局勢，爭取更多的技術主權，雖然不是全部，但更多的激勵計劃意味著，是的，我們將增加產能。

Now we can have -- look at our simulation model and looking at industry analysts, we have been blatantly wrong. So we can do this again or we can say, now let's look forward. Let's have a longer-term view. I do believe, and I think we're not the only one also our customers that -- the compound annual growth numbers for the semiconductor industry will lead to $1 trillion business by the end of the decade. We're over $500 billion now, which means that $500 billion was created in 40 years' time. So we have less than 10 years to just double it again. So I think we will need that capacity, yes?

現在我們可以——看看我們的模擬模型，看看產業分析師，我們顯然錯了。所以我們可以再做一次，或者我們可以說，現在讓我們展望未來。讓我們把眼光放得更長遠。我確實相信，而且我認為我們不是唯一一個，我們的客戶也不是唯一一個相信這一點的人——到本世紀末，半導體產業的年複合成長率將達到 1 兆美元的規模。現在我們的財富已經超過 5000 億美元，這意味著 40 年後創造了 5000 億美元。因此，我們只剩下不到 10 年的時間就可以再次翻倍。所以我認為我們需要這種能力，對嗎？

Now, your question is, will this create temporary overcapacity? And it could very well be. These fabs are big, they're humongous. It's all about scale. So yes, when everything is timed in the same couple of years, you probably see overcapacity. But structurally and longer term, we need that capacity. So I'm not that concerned, yes? We should do it.

現在，您的問題是，這是否會造成暫時的產能過剩？事實很有可能如此。這些晶圓廠規模很大，非常龐大。一切都與規模有關。所以是的，當所有事情都在同一幾年內發生時，你可能會看到產能過剩。但從結構和長期來看，我們需要這種能力。所以我不那麼擔心，對嗎？我們應該這麼做。

And my last reason why I think we should do it is. On some of these technologies, we are unfortunately, for the industry, the sole source of supply. I don't want to be in a situation as I said it before, that we have to keep pushing the over demand from one year to the other. We have to create a situation where we pay responsibility together with our customers that we can supply what the market needs. And that could indeed mean that there is potential, a bit of overcapacity. Given the fact that we're very bad at predicting the growth rate of this industry, I'm okay with that. But that's perhaps as an answer of an old man.

我認為我們應該這樣做的最後一個原因是。不幸的是，對於某些技術，我們是該行業的唯一供應來源。我不想陷入之前所說的境地，即我們必須逐年推高需求。我們必須創造一種與客戶共同承擔責任的局面，以滿足市場的需求。這確實意味著存在潛在的產能過剩。考慮到我們很不擅長預測這個行業的成長率，我對此表示同意。但這也許是一位老人的回答。

Our next question comes from Stephane Houri with ODDO BHF.

下一個問題來自 ODDO BHF 的 Stephane Houri。

Yes. I just want you have more color maybe on your Chinese (technical difficulty). What's the size of your China? What was the growth for the last quarter? And what (technical difficulty)

是的。我只是希望你的中文能夠更加豐富多彩（技術難度）。你的瓷器有多大？上一季的成長情況如何？還有什麼（技術難度）

When you talk about the China business. I guess China domestic business, I think that's what you're focused on it. And then if you look at the China domestic business, last year, 2021, it was about EUR 1.8 billion. And our expectation is that this will grow at the same pace of company growth. So it will grow about 20% for this year, which in the supply constraint environment is exactly what you would expect in China would grow exactly at the same pace as the other deep UV business would be growing successfully. So EUR 1.8 billion last year, expected to grow to approximately EUR 2.1 billion this year.

當你談論中國業務時。我想，中國國內業務就是你所關注的重點。如果你看看中國國內業務，去年（2021 年）約 18 億歐元。我們的預期是，這一成長速度將與公司的成長速度相同。因此，今年它的成長率將達到 20% 左右，在供應受限的環境下，這正是您所期望的中國的成長速度，與其他深紫外線業務的成功成長速度完全相同。去年為 18 億歐元，預計今年將成長至約 21 億歐元。

And a follow-up, quickly about the service margin of EUV. I think you said that was improving. Where do you think it will get to corporate level? Are we still talking about 3 years?

接下來我們快速討論一下 EUV 的服務利潤率。我認為您說的是情況正在改善。您認為它將在企業層面達到什麼程度？我們還在談 3 年嗎？

Yes. So last year, it was about 30%. We expect it to get to about 40% this year. And then I think it will take until '25-ish time frame, I think, until you really get it to corporate level.

是的。去年，這個比例大約是 30%。我們預計今年這一比例將達到40%左右。然後我認為這將需要大約 25 年的時間，直到你真正將其提升到企業層面。

So I think we've made major steps in that becoming more efficient, obviously, we also demand to machine hour very much improving simply because of the sale of EUV. But ultimately, that's the trajectory that we're on.

因此，我認為我們在提高效率方面取得了重大進展，顯然，由於 EUV 的銷售，我們對機器小時數的要求也大大提高。但最終，這就是我們所走的軌跡。

So from this point onwards, the steps are going to be a lot smaller. But in 2025, I think we'll get it to approximately corporate [gross margin].

所以從現在開始，步伐將會小很多。但到 2025 年，我認為我們的毛利率將達到約 100%。

All right. We have time for one last question. If you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Operator, may we have the last caller, please?

好的。我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。如果您無法接通本次電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。接線生，請問我們可以接聽最後一位來電嗎？

So for our last question, we have Jerome Ramel with BNP Paribas.

我們的最後一個問題請到法國巴黎銀行的 Jerome Ramel 提出。

Maybe a last question for Roger to come back to the free cash flow in Q4. Just on the short-term liabilities, it increased by EUR 3 billion (inaudible) double over Q4 last year. Is it purely the account payables? And so can you give us a number of Q4 compared to Q4 last year?

也許對羅傑來說最後一個問題是回到第四季的自由現金流。僅就短期負債而言，它就比去年第四季增加了 30 億歐元（聽不清楚），是去年同期的兩倍。純粹是應付帳款嗎？那麼，您能否告訴我們與去年第四季相比第四季的數字？

No, no, it's not the account payable. That would be a bit rough to our supply chain, right? So that's not what it is. It is primarily -- it really is a down payment. So it's down payments on new orders, orders for '21 and even beyond that point. That's what it consists of.

不，不，這不是應付帳款。這對我們的供應鏈來說可能有點困難，對吧？事實並非如此。它主要是——它確實是一筆首付。因此，這是新訂單的首付款，是 21 年甚至更久以後的訂單的首付款。這就是它的組成。

Again, we were looking at an order intake this year of EUR 26 billion. And that's really what it is. I mean you're looking at the end of this year. At the end of '21, you're looking at EUR 8.5 billion of down payments and a significant part of that came in Q4.

再次，我們預計今年的訂單金額將達到 260 億歐元。事實確實如此。我的意思是你正在關註今年年底的情況。截至 21 年底，首付款總額為 85 億歐元，其中很大一部分是在第四季度支付的。

For which we're going to spend that money on building the machines and investing within this year. I mean, we don't get that money from nothing. Yes.

我們將在今年內用這筆錢來製造機器並進行投資。我的意思是，我們不是憑空拿到這些錢的。是的。

Would it be fair to assume that most of the down payment has been done and that will gradually, as you say, normalize in the course of 2022?

是否可以公平地假設大部分首付已經支付，並且如您所說，到 2022 年將逐漸恢復正常？

Yes, exactly. So that's why I say this is a very special year, why because we get all these down payments. Next year, you will still get down payments, but you would also do shipments where you only get -- you only get a percentage because you already received the down payments in the year and the year before. And that's why I said that you will see cash conversion get to 100%, frankly, below 100% because of the -- because of the fact that this is still a growing company.

是的，確實如此。所以我說這是非常特別的一年，因為我們拿到了所有這些首付。明年，您仍然會收到首付款，但您也會收到貨物，但您只能獲得一定比例的貨物，因為您在今年和前一年已經收到了首付款。這就是為什麼我說你會看到現金轉換率達到 100%，坦白說，低於 100%，因為這仍然是一家成長中的公司。

So that's why I think in the longer term, you would see cash conversion drop below the 100 percentage point.

所以我認為從長遠來看，現金轉換率將下降到 100 個百分點以下。

All right. Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thank you.

好的。現在，我謹代表 ASML 感謝大家今天的參加。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

This now concludes the ASML 2021 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.

ASML 2021 年第四季及全年財務業績電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。