艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2021 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on July 21, 2021. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to open the question -- I'll now hand the floor to our speakers. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 2021 年 7 月 21 日舉行的 ASML 2021 年第二季度財務業績電話會議。（操作員說明）我現在想提出這個問題——我現在將發言權交給我們的發言人。 （操作員說明）

I'd like to now turn the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please begin your meeting.

我現在想將電話會議轉交給 Skip Miller 先生。請開始您的會議。

All right. Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2021 second quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com.

好的。謝謝你，接線員。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是 ASML 的首席執行官 Peter Wennink；和我們的首席財務官 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 的 2021 年第二季度業績。此電話的長度為 60 分鐘，問題將按照收到的順序進行處理。該電話也通過互聯網在 asml.com 上進行直播。

A transcript of the management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call. Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties.

本次電話會議結束後不久，我們的網站上將提供管理層的開幕致辭和電話會議的重播。在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理層在本次電話會議期間發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。

For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

對於風險因素的討論，我鼓勵您查看我們網站 asml.com 上的今天新聞稿和演示文稿中包含的安全港聲明，以及 ASML 提交給證券和交易委員會。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 進行簡要介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our Q2 2021 results conference call. I hope all of you and your families are healthy and safe.

謝謝你，跳過。歡迎大家，感謝您加入我們的 2021 年第二季度業績電話會議。我希望你們所有人和你們的家人都健康平安。

But before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the second quarter as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. And Roger will start with a review of our Q2 2021 financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook. Roger, if you want.

但在我們開始問答環節之前，羅杰和我想對第二季度進行概述和一些評論，並提供我們對未來幾個季度的看法。羅傑將首先審查我們的 2021 年第二季度財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表評論。在介紹的最後，我將對當前的商業環境和我們未來的商業前景提出一些補充意見。羅傑，如果你願意的話。

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the second quarter financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the third quarter of 2021.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第二季度的財務業績，然後為 2021 年第三季度提供指導。

Net sales came in within guidance at EUR 4.0 billion. The guided lower revenue was due to a number of systems in the quarter that did not receive factory acceptance testing due to customers' desire to bring systems into production as quickly as possible. Therefore, revenue will be recognized in subsequent quarters after completion of acceptance testing at customer sites.

淨銷售額在指導範圍內，為 40 億歐元。由於客戶希望盡快將系統投入生產，導致本季度的一些系統沒有接受工廠驗收測試，導致收入下降。因此，收入將在客戶現場完成驗收測試後的後續季度確認。

We shipped 10 EUV systems and recognized EUR 1.3 billion revenue from 9 systems this quarter. Two EUV systems shipped this quarter without factory acceptance testing, so revenue will be recognized in the subsequent quarter after customer site acceptance. For the system we shipped in Q1 without factory acceptance testing, we were able to complete site acceptance tests and recognized revenue in Q2. Again, the net result is 9 EUV revenue systems in Q2.

本季度我們出貨了 10 個 EUV 系統，並從 9 個系統確認了 13 億歐元的收入。本季度交付的兩套 EUV 系統沒有經過工廠驗收測試，因此收入將在客戶現場驗收後的下一季度確認。對於我們在第一季度發貨但沒有進行工廠驗收測試的系統，我們能夠在第二季度完成現場驗收測試並確認收入。同樣，最終結果是第二季度有 9 個 EUV 收入系統。

Net system sales of EUR 2.9 billion was again more weighted towards Logic at 72%, with the remaining 28% from Memory. The strength in Logic drives both DPV and EUV revenue. The Memory business is mainly driven by DRAM. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.1 billion above guidance due to increased upgrade business as customers continue to pull forward software upgrades that can quickly increase productivity of systems in this high semiconductor demand environment.

29 億歐元的淨系統銷售額再次以 72% 的比例更多地來自邏輯，其餘 28% 來自內存。 Logic 的實力推動了 DPV 和 EUV 的收入。內存業務主要由 DRAM 驅動。由於客戶繼續推進軟件升級，可以在這種半導體需求高的環境中快速提高系統的生產力，升級業務增加，本季度安裝基礎管理的銷售額比預期高出 11 億歐元。

Gross margin for the quarter was 50.9% and was above guidance, primarily due to the additional software upgrade business and one-off revenue accounting releases. On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 634 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 172 million, which was slightly lower than our guidance. Net income in Q2 was EUR 1.0 billion, representing 25.8% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 2.52.

本季度毛利率為 50.9%，高於預期，主要是由於額外的軟件升級業務和一次性收入會計發布。在運營費用方面，研發費用為 6.34 億歐元，SG&A 費用為 1.72 億歐元，略低於我們的預期。第二季度的淨收入為 10 億歐元，占淨銷售額的 25.8%，每股收益為 2.52 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 5.4 billion.

轉向資產負債表。我們在第二季度末的現金、現金等價物和短期投資為 54 億歐元。

Moving to the order book. Q2 net system bookings came in at a record EUR 8.3 billion, including EUR 4.9 billion for EUV systems. The very strong order intake for both EUV and DPV is a reflection of the global demand environment across all markets. Order intake was largely driven by Logic with 71% of the bookings, and memory accounted for the remaining 29%. The majority of EUV orders continue to come from Logic customers, but we also had our largest EUV order intake for DRAM this quarter coming from multiple customers.

轉到訂單簿。第二季度淨系統預訂達到創紀錄的 83 億歐元，其中包括 EUV 系統的 49 億歐元。 EUV 和 DPV 的訂單量都非常強勁，這反映了所有市場的全球需求環境。訂單量主要由 Logic 推動，佔預訂量的 71%，而內存佔剩餘的 29%。大多數 EUV 訂單繼續來自 Logic 客戶，但本季度我們最大的 DRAM EUV 訂單也來自多個客戶。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the third quarter of 2021. We expect Q3 total net sales to be between EUR 5.2 billion and EUR 5.4 billion. We expect our Q3 installed base management sales to be around EUR 1.0 billion. Gross margin for Q3 is expected to be between 51% and 52%. Expected R&D expenses for Q3 are around EUR 645 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at around $180 million. R&D expenses for 2021 are expected to be around 14% of sales. We expect SG&A to remain around 4% of sales for 2021. Our estimated 2021 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be around 15%.

有了這個，我想轉向我們對 2021 年第三季度的預期。我們預計第三季度的總淨銷售額將在 52 億歐元至 54 億歐元之間。我們預計第三季度的安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 10 億歐元。第三季度的毛利率預計在 51% 至 52% 之間。第三季度的預計研發費用約為 6.45 億歐元，SG&A 預計約為 1.8 億美元。預計 2021 年的研發費用將佔銷售額的 14% 左右。我們預計 2021 年 SG&A 將保持在銷售額的 4% 左右。我們預計 2021 年的年化有效稅率預計將在 15% 左右。

In Q2, ASML paid a final dividend of EUR 1.55 per ordinary share or EUR 639 million. Together with the interim dividend paid in 2020, this results in a total dividend for 2020 of EUR 2.75 per ordinary share. This is a 15% increase compared to the 2019 dividend. In Q2 2021, ASML purchased 3.6 million shares on the 2022 program for a total amount of around EUR 2.0 billion.

在第二季度，ASML 支付了每股普通股 1.55 歐元或 6.39 億歐元的末期股息。加上 2020 年支付的中期股息，這導致 2020 年的總股息為每股普通股 2.75 歐元。與 2019 年的股息相比，這增加了 15%。 2021 年第二季度，ASML 在 2022 年計劃中購買了 360 萬股，總金額約為 20 億歐元。

As part of ASML's financial policy to return excess cash to its shareholders through growing dividends and share buybacks, ASML announced a new share buyback program, which will start on July 22, 2021 and is to be executed by the 31st of December 2023. As part of this program, ASML intends to repurchase shares up to an amount of EUR 9 billion, of which we expect a total of up to 0.45 million shares will be used to cover employee share plans.

作為 ASML 通過增加股息和股票回購向股東返還多餘現金的財務政策的一部分，ASML 宣布了一項新的股票回購計劃，該計劃將於 2021 年 7 月 22 日開始，並於 2023 年 12 月 31 日執行。作為一部分在該計劃中，ASML 擬回購高達 90 億歐元的股份，我們預計其中高達 45 萬股的股份將用於支付員工股份計劃。

ASML intends to cancel the remainder of the shares repurchased. The new program will replace the previous EUR 6 billion share buyback program 2020 through 2022, under which ASML has repurchased approximately 11.7 million shares for an approximate amount of EUR 5.2 billion and which will not be completed for the full amount in light of the new share buyback program.

ASML 打算註銷剩餘的回購股份。新計劃將取代之前的 2020 年至 2022 年 60 億歐元的股票回購計劃，根據該計劃，ASML 以約 52 億歐元的價格回購了約 1170 萬股股票，鑑於新股，該計劃將不會全部完成回購計劃。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter.

有了這個，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, we had a good quarter in both sales and profitability. We're seeing continued strong demand from our customers across all market segments, from both advanced and mature nodes, driving demand across our entire product portfolio.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的那樣，我們在銷售和盈利方面都有一個不錯的季度。我們看到客戶在所有細分市場（包括先進節點和成熟節點）的持續強勁需求，推動了我們整個產品組合的需求。

Compared to last quarter, where we expected an annual sales growth rate towards 30%, we now expect revenue to be at around 35% this year. The higher sales growth comes from our ability to increase output in our factories and in the supply chain as we work to meet the strong customer demand.

與上一季度我們預計年銷售額增長率接近 30% 相比，我們現在預計今年的收入將在 35% 左右。較高的銷售增長來自我們在努力滿足強大的客戶需求時增加工廠和供應鏈產量的能力。

Looking at the different market segments and changes from last quarter, we now expect stronger growth rates across all markets. In Logic, global demand continues to be strong across a broad application space in both advanced and mature nodes. And compared to last quarter, where we expected 2021 Logic revenue to be up 30% year-on-year, we now expect Logic to be up around 35% this year.

從上一季度不同的細分市場和變化來看，我們現在預計所有市場的增長率都會更高。在 Logic 中，全球需求在先進和成熟節點的廣泛應用領域持續強勁。與上一季度相比，我們預計 2021 年邏輯收入將同比增長 30%，我們現在預計邏輯今年將增長約 35%。

In Memory, customers see tight supply/demand dynamics continuing into next year. And compared to last quarter, where we expected 2021 Memory revenue to be up 50% year-on-year, we now expect Memory revenue to be up around 60% this year.

在內存方面，客戶認為供應/需求的緊張態勢將持續到明年。與上一季度相比，我們預計 2021 年內存收入將同比增長 50%，我們現在預計今年內存收入將增長約 60%。

In our installed base business, for the second quarter in a row, our upgrade business has been stronger than guided. Customers are looking to upgrades to provide the fastest path to increase their wafer output capability. Compared to last quarter, where we expect the 2021 installed base revenue to be up 10% year-on-year, we now expect installed base revenue to be up around 15% this year.

在我們的安裝基礎業務中，連續第二個季度，我們的升級業務一直強於指導。客戶正在尋求升級以提供最快的途徑來提高他們的晶圓輸出能力。與上一季度相比，我們預計 2021 年的安裝基數收入將同比增長 10%，我們現在預計今年的安裝基數收入將增長約 15%。

As we continue to strengthen our outlook on the year, the majority of the increase is coming from our DPV business. We have increased our planned factory output to meet customer growing demand and now expect higher growth in DPV in 2021. While keeping in mind the minimum stocking levels the increased output was partly due to the usage of service inventory at ASML and its suppliers.

隨著我們繼續加強對今年的展望，大部分增長來自我們的 DPV 業務。我們已經增加了計劃的工廠產量以滿足客戶不斷增長的需求，現在預計 2021 年 DPV 的增長將更高。儘管考慮到最低庫存水平，但產量增加的部分原因是 ASML 及其供應商使用了服務庫存。

On EUV, we continue to push our manufacturing capability and have been able to realize a limited increase in output. We now expect EUV revenue growth of around 35% year-on-year, an increase from the 30% as we communicated last quarter. And we also shipped our first 3600D system in Q2, which will deliver a 15% to 20% higher productivity capability than our 3400C systems. The vast majority of the EUV systems in the second half will be 3600D systems contributing to increased weighted capacity in our customers' fabs.

在 EUV 上，我們繼續提升我們的製造能力，並且已經能夠實現產量的有限增長。我們現在預計 EUV 收入將同比增長 35% 左右，高於我們上個季度傳達的 30%。我們還在第二季度交付了我們的第一台 3600D 系統，它將提供比我們的 3400C 系統高 15% 到 20% 的生產力能力。下半年的絕大多數 EUV 系統將是 3600D 系統，有助於增加我們客戶晶圓廠的加權產能。

To summarize this year, taking into account the planned system output improvements in the second half, we now expect sales growth of about 35% and a gross margin between 51% and 52% for the full year.

總結今年，考慮到下半年計劃的系統輸出改善，我們現在預計全年銷售額增長約35%，毛利率在51%至52%之間。

Looking beyond 2021, if you read the papers, you can see the 3 trends we highlighted in the last quarter continue to drive semiconductor and equipment demand. Chip shortages are partly due to decisions made during the global pandemic, first reported in the automotive industry, have since moved to other industries. This is causing a more cyclical or catch-up driven demand that we expect will likely continue into next year.

展望 2021 年以後，如果您閱讀論文，您會看到我們在上個季度強調的 3 個趨勢繼續推動半導體和設備需求。芯片短缺的部分原因是全球大流行期間做出的決定，首先在汽車行業報導，後來轉移到其他行業。這導致了更具週期性或追趕性的需求，我們預計這種需求可能會持續到明年。

But more importantly, secular growth from the digital transformation that's underway as the world becomes more connected, not only machine to people or people to machine, but also machine to machine. The expanding application space with secular drivers such as 5G, AI, high-performance and distributed computing is fueling a rapidly growing demand for semiconductors. And this demand is not only for leading-edge devices required to power these high-performance application, but this also requires a wide array of applications using other technology to support the build-out of the digital infrastructure.

但更重要的是，隨著世界變得更加緊密相連，正在進行的數字化轉型帶來了長期增長，不僅是機器對人或人對機器，而且是機器對機器。 5G、人工智能、高性能和分佈式計算等長期驅動因素不斷擴大的應用空間正在推動對半導體的快速增長的需求。這種需求不僅針對為這些高性能應用程序提供動力所需的尖端設備，而且還需要使用其他技術來支持構建數字基礎設施的大量應用程序。

Computing is also rapidly moving to the edge, where sensing technologies require connected compute technologies that are often mature in nature. Lastly, the push for technological sovereignty, as countries and regions are planning to establish or expand regional semiconductor manufacturing capabilities in an attempt to manage geographical semiconductor manufacturing risks. This will likely create some level of inefficiency in the semiconductor supply chain and, thus, additional equipment demand. Although we believe that this potential inefficiency will be managed rationally by a few very large manufacturers, which are crucial in building this additional infrastructure.

計算也迅速向邊緣移動，傳感技術需要連接計算技術，而這些技術通常在本質上是成熟的。最後，推動技術主權，因為國家和地區正計劃建立或擴大區域半導體製造能力，以管理地理半導體製造風險。這可能會在半導體供應鏈中造成一定程度的低效率，從而導致額外的設備需求。儘管我們相信這種潛在的低效率將由一些非常大的製造商進行合理的管理，這對於構建這種額外的基礎設施至關重要。

We expect these trends to continue for the next several years, which fuels long-term demand for both Logic and Memory and drives demand for our entire product portfolio.

我們預計這些趨勢將在未來幾年持續下去，這將推動對邏輯和內存的長期需求，並推動對我們整個產品組合的需求。

For EUV, future demand growth is primarily driven by Logic, with increasing EUV late accounts and stronger wafer demand on advanced nodes. We're also seeing growing demand for EUV and Memory as customers are ramping EUV and volume production with plans to implement EUV on future nodes across 3 DRAM customers. With the strong order intake this quarter, this brings our backlog -- our total backlog to EUR 17.5 billion, which includes EUV of EUR 10.9 billion, which is a reflection of the very healthy market environment we're in today. And it covers approximately 80% of the planned EUV output for 2022.

對於 EUV 而言，未來需求增長主要由 Logic 驅動，EUV 後期賬戶增加以及先進節點上的晶圓需求增加。我們還看到對 EUV 和內存的需求不斷增長，因為客戶正在增加 EUV 和批量生產，併計劃在 3 個 DRAM 客戶的未來節點上實施 EUV。隨著本季度的強勁訂單量，這使我們的積壓訂單達到 175 億歐元，其中包括 109 億歐元的 EUV，這反映了我們今天所處的非常健康的市場環境。它涵蓋了 2022 年計劃 EUV 輸出的大約 80%。

For future DPV demand, it is driven by the growing wafer demand in both Memory and Logic. We see both advanced and mature nodes increasing over time. Immersion is required for the more advanced nodes in Memory and Logic, with dry technology required for both advanced and mature technology. We see the DPV demand certainly for dry products being stronger for longer.

對於未來的 DPV 需求，它受到內存和邏輯晶圓需求不斷增長的推動。我們看到先進和成熟的節點都隨著時間的推移而增加。內存和邏輯中更先進的節點需要沉浸式，先進和成熟的技術都需要乾式技術。我們看到干產品的 DPV 需求肯定會持續更長時間。

In order to meet our customers' increasing long-term demand, we're working hard with our supply chain to increase our capacity. We continue to drive down manufacturing cycle times, both in our factory and in our supply chain. And jointly with our suppliers, we are looking across the supply chain to determine whether we need to add people, equipment or buildings to increase our output capability for EUV as well as DPV. Each of these activities have different time horizons to materialize.

為了滿足客戶日益增長的長期需求，我們正在努力與我們的供應鏈合作以增加我們的產能。我們繼續在我們的工廠和供應鏈中縮短製造週期時間。與我們的供應商一起，我們正在尋找整個供應鏈，以確定我們是否需要增加人員、設備或建築物來增加我們的 EUV 和 DPV 的輸出能力。這些活動中的每一項都有不同的時間範圍來實現。

For DPV, in response to the market demand, we will need to increase our capacity in 2022 and beyond, and have therefore started to execute plans to significantly increase our capacity primarily with dry systems. This is needed since we will not be able next year to again use the surplus inventories of DPV modules and parts to fuel our sales as we will do in 2021.

對於 DPV，為了響應市場需求，我們需要在 2022 年及以後增加我們的產能，因此已經開始執行計劃以顯著增加我們的產能，主要是乾式系統。這是必要的，因為明年我們將無法像 2021 年那樣再次使用 DPV 模塊和零件的剩餘庫存來推動我們的銷售。

It's a bit too early to provide specific details on our capacity plans for the coming years as we have not yet confirmed the targeted capacity increases with our key suppliers. But we will provide an update as soon as we have finalized these plans.

現在就我們未來幾年的產能計劃提供具體細節還為時過早，因為我們尚未與主要供應商確認目標產能增加。但是，一旦我們完成了這些計劃，我們就會提供更新。

For EUV, we're planning our supply chain for a capacity of around 55 systems in 2022 and are looking to further increase the capacity to over 60 EUV systems in 2023. In addition to increasing our system capacity, we're also driving our product road map to deliver higher productivity systems to increase effective wafer capacity. All of our planned shipments in 2022 will be the higher productivity 3600D systems.

對於 EUV，我們計劃到 2022 年我們的供應鏈容量約為 55 個系統，並希望在 2023 年將容量進一步增加到 60 多個 EUV 系統。除了增加我們的系統容量外，我們還在推動我們的產品提供更高生產力系統以增加有效晶圓產能的路線圖。我們計劃在 2022 年出貨的所有產品都將是生產力更高的 3600D 系統。

In summary, the chip demand is very strong, and we're working to maximize output to meet customer demand. The secular growth trends as part of the digital transformation to a more connected world is fueling future demand across all market segments at both the advanced and the mature nodes, which only increases our confidence in our long-term growth outlook. We plan to provide you an update on our future scenarios at our Investor Day on September 29, so please book the date. With that, we would be happy to take your questions.

綜上所述，芯片需求非常旺盛，我們正在努力最大化產量以滿足客戶需求。作為向更互聯世界的數字化轉型的一部分，長期增長趨勢正在推動先進和成熟節點所有細分市場的未來需求，這只會增加我們對長期增長前景的信心。我們計劃在 9 月 29 日的投資者日向您提供我們未來情景的最新信息，因此請預訂日期。有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

All right. Thank you, Peter and Roger. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. Beforehand, I would like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to 1 question with 1 short follow-up, if necessary. This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible. Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

好的。謝謝你，彼得和羅傑。接線員將立即指導您問答環節的協議。事先，如果有必要，我想請您將自己限制在 1 個問題和 1 個簡短的後續行動中。這將使我們能夠接觸到盡可能多的呼叫者。現在接線員，我們可以給您最後的指示，然後是第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Francois bouvignies of UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Francois bouvignies。

Maybe the first one, if I may, is on the -- if we look at your upside for dry EUV, how would you slice this between what ties up to your new leading-edge Logic and Memory capacity and what relates to new trailing edge, Logic and analog? Would be interesting to have the color of the two.

如果我可以的話，也許第一個是——如果我們看看你的干 EUV 的優勢，你會如何在與新的前沿邏輯和內存容量相關的內容和與新的後緣相關的內容之間進行劃分，邏輯和模擬？有兩者的顏色會很有趣。

And the second question I had, maybe, Peter, when we look at the market dynamic, I mean there is obviously a strong demand and, as a consequence, a significant shortage. And on top of that, you have some local capacity concern that you talked about in your video. So what I'm trying to understand is with these 2 factors that probably one concern is kind of inflation of orders, creating some disconnect between the supply and the demand i.e., the shortage and local domestic capacity, so how do you assess this risk? How do you manage this risk of overcapacity when you think about adding capacity in DPV and EUV?

我的第二個問題可能是彼得，當我們觀察市場動態時，我的意思是顯然需求強勁，因此嚴重短缺。最重要的是，您在視頻中談到了一些本地容量問題。所以我想了解的是，對於這兩個因素，可能一個問題是訂單膨脹，造成供需之間的某種脫節，即短缺和當地國內產能，那麼您如何評估這種風險？當您考慮增加 DPV 和 EUV 的容量時，您如何管理這種產能過剩的風險？

Very good questions. Let me first answer the upside on the dry DPV. Whether it's driven by leading edge or, let's say, trailing or mature, I think on the leading edge, we have a reasonably good view as to what our customers need in terms of new fabs built, ramp-up plans. And of course, we know the layer stacks. We know the layer composition in terms of dry immersion EUV.

非常好的問題。讓我首先回答幹 DPV 的好處。無論是由領先優勢驅動，還是落後或成熟，我認為在領先優勢上，我們對客戶在新建晶圓廠和產能計劃方面的需求有相當好的看法。當然，我們知道層堆棧。我們知道幹浸 EUV 的層組成。

So yes, that's growing, but that's more plannable, I would say. That's -- we have more insights. And it was really surprised us is the very strong demand from, let's say, the non-leading-edge customers, which is across the globe. It's in Europe, it's in the U.S., it's in Asia. And it has to do with microcontrollers, power, analog, image sensors. It's all over the place.

所以是的，這正在增長，但我會說，這更具計劃性。那是 - 我們有更多的見解。讓我們感到非常驚訝的是來自全球的非領先客戶的強勁需求。它在歐洲，在美國，在亞洲。它與微控制器、電源、模擬、圖像傳感器有關。到處都是。

And I think it's also explainable and it's a bit of a lead-in into your next question that if you see where this is going and where the shortages are in automotive and other industrial areas. Even from time to time, we get questions out of our own supply chain, whether we can help sourcing some of these components, which basically, normally, we can because we have some good contacts with some semiconductor manufacturers. So we actually see this happening everywhere.

而且我認為這也是可以解釋的，並且它有點引導到您的下一個問題，即如果您了解情況的發展方向以及汽車和其他工業領域的短缺情況。即使不時地，我們也會從自己的供應鏈中得到問題，是否可以幫助採購其中一些組件，基本上，通常情況下，我們可以，因為我們與一些半導體製造商有良好的聯繫。所以我們實際上到處都能看到這種情況。

You see lead times in household appliances going up, simply because analog, power, sensors, microcontrollers in household appliances are in shortage. So it's basically, it's the rollout of the -- finally what we are seeing as the Internet of Things and 5G, we have the big pipe. So you can actually use the big pipe to actually transfer that data and transport the data. And that's what we're seeing now.

你看到家用電器的交貨時間在增加，僅僅是因為家用電器中的模擬、電源、傳感器、微控制器短缺。所以基本上，這是我們所看到的物聯網和 5G 的推出，我們擁有大管道。因此，您實際上可以使用大管道來實際傳輸數據並傳輸數據。這就是我們現在看到的。

So it's -- basically, the big surprise was really in what we would call the mature or the specialty semiconductors, yes, which is just a reflection of the digital transition that we're right in the middle.

所以它 - 基本上，最大的驚喜真的是我們所說的成熟或特種半導體，是的，這只是我們處於中間的數字轉型的反映。

So leading into an answer to your second question, so how do we then assess the risk of this capacity increase that we're planning for? It's basically how do we assess the risk that this rollout of this digitization, the digital infrastructure, is a hoax? It's not happening. It's not there, or it's happening at a speed that we completely misjudged.

因此，回答您的第二個問題，那麼我們如何評估我們計劃的這種容量增加的風險？基本上，我們如何評估這種數字化、數字基礎設施的推出是騙局的風險？它沒有發生。它不存在，或者它以我們完全錯誤判斷的速度發生。

I think given where the shortages are and the time it will take to get rid of those shortages, I think the underlying growth trend, there is a high level of reality in there, in our mind. So we will build that capacity. And I have to add, I think structurally, over the last 15 years, I think we've underestimated the growth of the industry. And I can only -- this may -- might be anecdotal but in 2007, we started to give you, for the first time, a scenario target based on a certain market assumption 5 years out. We got there 1 year early.

我認為，考慮到短缺在哪里以及消除這些短缺所需的時間，我認為潛在的增長趨勢，在我們看來，那裡有很高的現實水平。所以我們將建立這種能力。我必須補充一點，我認為在過去 15 年的結構中，我認為我們低估了該行業的增長。我只能 - 這可能 - 可能是軼事，但在 2007 年，我們第一次開始給你一個基於 5 年後某個市場假設的情景目標。我們提前一年到達那裡。

The second time we did that, we got that 2 years early. And the third time we did it, that was the one that we're in today. And we are guiding about EUR 18.9 billion, close to EUR 19 billion, which is, effectively was our mid-market scenario that we gave you for 2025. We again are years early. So we structurally underestimated the growth in this industry. I'm not concerned in building that capacity. We will use it.

我們第二次這樣做時，我們提前了 2 年。我們第三次這樣做，這就是我們今天所處的位置。我們正在指導大約 189 億歐元，接近 190 億歐元，這實際上是我們為您提供的 2025 年中端市場情景。我們再次提前數年。所以我們在結構上低估了這個行業的增長。我不關心建立這種能力。我們將使用它。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

So you talked about the catch-up effect is stretching into 2022. I was curious on the DUV side, your orders remain really strong. So just curious with the capacity increases you're putting in place, is that catch up with your order book, is that more of a first half 2022 dynamic? Or do you see that as continuing into the second half of 2022?

所以你談到了追趕效應一直延伸到 2022 年。我對 DUV 方面感到好奇，你的訂單仍然非常強勁。因此，只是對您正在實施的產能增加感到好奇，這是否趕上了您的訂單，這是否更像是 2022 年上半年的動態？還是您認為這種情況會持續到 2022 年下半年？

Yes. That's a good question. It depends on the speed with which we can get the -- well, it depends on the confirmation we can get from our supply chain, because we did ask them and especially for the mature products and dry products to get a significant increase, which is double-digit increase in our capacity or their capacity, I should say. And that could then easily extend into the second half of next year.

是的。這是個好問題。這取決於我們獲得的速度——嗯，這取決於我們可以從供應鏈中獲得的確認，因為我們確實要求他們，特別是成熟產品和乾燥產品獲得顯著增長，這是我應該說，我們的能力或他們的能力有兩位數的增長。然後很容易延續到明年下半年。

Like I said earlier, I think this disruption of the supply chain that happened during the global pandemic, I think it's like a traffic jam. You have a traffic jam in 15 minutes, takes an hour to get it resolved. It's basically what's happening also in the industry. It's a global supply chain with many, many key players there.

就像我之前說的，我認為全球大流行期間發生的供應鏈中斷，我認為這就像交通堵塞。您在 15 分鐘內遇到交通擁堵，需要一個小時才能解決。這基本上也是該行業正在發生的事情。這是一個全球供應鏈，那裡有許多關鍵參與者。

When you start to put locks into this global efficient supply chain effectively and you take out those locks, not at all at the same time, and inventories are depleted before everything starts going again, it takes time. And that's what we see. We actually see that in the supply chain and customers of our customers and customers of the customers' customers, they're basically now reassessing their planning. And they're finding out there are shortages all over the place, whereby the key players in that ecosystem are not fully aligned yet on making this seamless again. And that will take time.

當你開始有效地將鎖鎖定到這個全球高效的供應鏈中並且你取出這些鎖，而不是同時，並且在一切重新開始之前庫存已經耗盡，這需要時間。這就是我們所看到的。我們實際上看到，在我們客戶的客戶和客戶的客戶的供應鍊和客戶中，他們現在基本上正在重新評估他們的計劃。他們發現到處都存在短缺，因此該生態系統中的主要參與者尚未完全一致，無法再次無縫連接。這需要時間。

So this will lead into 2022 easily. And I think the first half, if our supply chain, and not only our supply chain, also the supply chain of our peers can follow then, yes, maybe mid next year, we'll see some relief and then you see a tapering off of the order intake. But otherwise, I think we will continue into the second half of next year.

因此，這將輕鬆進入 2022 年。而且我認為上半年，如果我們的供應鏈，不僅是我們的供應鏈，還有我們同行的供應鏈可以跟隨，是的，也許明年年中，我們會看到一些緩解，然後你會看到逐漸減少的訂單攝入量。但除此之外，我認為我們將持續到明年下半年。

Got it. That's helpful. And then on the increased EUV revenue outlook for this year, from a revenue perspective, it sounds like you're doing some things to maybe improve the manufacturing or your capabilities and maybe get another tool out the door. But just curious, in addition to that, is that reflective of maybe any sort of expectations around mix, being a little bit stronger to the 3600D or configurations being a little bit richer than expected when we entered this year?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後關於今年 EUV 收入前景的增長，從收入的角度來看，聽起來你正在做一些事情來改善製造或能力，並可能會推出另一種工具。但只是好奇，除此之外，這是否反映了對混合的任何期望，比 3600D 更強一點，或者配置比我們今年進入時的預期更豐富一點？

Yes. I think you got it, Joe. It's a combination of those things. I think what you saw over the quarters -- during the quarter is that indeed, the ASP turned out to be stronger than what you saw last year. And I think that was the result, as you say, of the option that customers asked for. So there were richer configurations than originally envisaged. So there you saw on the 3400C, you saw an ASP of 145. You see this quarter even a bit higher, but there's some 3600D in there albeit very, very small. So that's one element.

是的。我想你明白了，喬。這是這些東西的組合。我認為您在本季度看到的情況是，在本季度，ASP 確實比您去年看到的要強。正如你所說，我認為這是客戶要求的選項的結果。所以有比最初設想的更豐富的配置。因此，您在 3400C 上看到了 145 的 ASP。您看到本季度甚至更高，但其中有一些 3600D，儘管非常非常小。這是一個要素。

And the second element indeed is that we're doing our utmost to further decrease cycle time as a result of that crank out 1 or 2 or more. So that's the 2 reason behind the increase to 35% uptick in comparison to last year, rather than the 30%.

第二個要素確實是，我們正在盡最大努力進一步減少循環時間，因為生產了 1 個或 2 個或更多。這就是與去年相比增長 35%，而不是 30% 的兩個原因。

Our next question comes from the line of Sandeep Deshpande of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

Peter, I'm just trying to understand, clearly, I mean there is a need for capacity both in DUV as well as EUV. I mean, are you -- I mean you have laid out how much capacity you intend to outlay in EUV. Do you intend to outlay this EUV capacity additions over the next few years at the Capital Markets Day or at this point?

彼得，我只是想清楚地理解，我的意思是 DUV 和 EUV 都需要容量。我的意思是，你是不是 - 我的意思是你已經列出了你打算在 EUV 上花費多少容量。您是否打算在未來幾年的資本市場日或此時支出增加的 EUV 產能？

And my second question is on the margin. Clearly, I mean, the more DUV you ship, it helps your overall gross margin as such, really, and that has helped this year as well.

我的第二個問題是在邊緣。顯然，我的意思是，你運送的 DUV 越多，它確實有助於你的整體毛利率，這對今年也有幫助。

I mean do you see that trend, that shift because of this higher DUV and the sensors and all these other older tools are likely to change your midterm view on the gross margin because of the higher DUV shipments?

我的意思是你是否看到了這種趨勢，這種轉變是因為更高的 DUV 和傳感器以及所有這些舊工具可能會因為更高的 DUV 出貨量而改變你對毛利率的中期看法？

Well, I think the second question, Roger will answer. On the DPV capacity, yes, I think it is our intention. If we have -- if we feel we're comfortable that giving you that number because we get all the confirmations in from the supply chain, I think we would definitely give you more insight into our DPV capacity on specifically dry, perhaps somewhat on immersion and on, I think, more specific on EUV. We will definitely do that by the end of this quarter.

好吧，我想第二個問題，羅傑會回答。關於 DPV 容量，是的，我認為這是我們的意圖。如果我們有——如果我們覺得我們很樂意給你這個數字，因為我們從供應鏈中得到了所有的確認，我想我們肯定會讓你更深入地了解我們的 DPV 能力，特別是乾的，也許有點沉浸並且，我認為，更具體的是 EUV。我們肯定會在本季度末做到這一點。

But we need some -- so for our key suppliers, we want to have that firm commitment. And we're going to not only get a firm commitment from an e-mail from the CEO, but I think we want to get that confirmed by the people who are actually building that capacity in the customer. So it's going to be quite an in-depth audit that you could say, because we will, based on that capacity, if the demand is there, we'll accept orders, and we don't want to disappoint our customers.

但我們需要一些——所以對於我們的主要供應商，我們希望做出堅定的承諾。我們不僅要從首席執行官的電子郵件中得到堅定的承諾，而且我認為我們希望得到那些實際在客戶中建立這種能力的人的確認。因此，您可以說這將是一次非常深入的審核，因為我們將根據這種能力，如果有需求，我們將接受訂單，我們不想讓我們的客戶失望。

So it's a process that's been ongoing for the last couple of months. But I think it's definitely our intention to give you all the information that we have at that time. And I hope and I expect to be honest that we will be able to do that to give you that number.

所以這是一個在過去幾個月中一直在進行的過程。但我認為，我們絕對打算向您提供當時我們擁有的所有信息。我希望並且我希望老實說，我們能夠做到這一點，給你這個數字。

Yes. Sandeep, on the margin side, as you know, and particularly with the introduction of the D model, you do see that the deltas between the different products in terms of gross margin becomes smaller. And therefore, the effect that you were talking about becomes smaller.

是的。 Sandeep，在利潤率方面，如您所知，特別是隨著 D 模型的引入，您確實看到不同產品之間在毛利率方面的差異變得更小。因此，您所說的效果會變小。

You also know that within DPV, there are differences between the different products in terms of gross margin. As we said on calls before, what is particularly relevant to look at is immersion, because the immersion is still from a gross margin perspective, a good product for us. And that's the one to watch. And if you, for instance, look at the last quarter, last quarter, you saw that 47% of our system sales was immersion. This year, you -- or this quarter, you see that, that's gone down to 34%, which is more realistic based, I would say, also for the quarters to come.

您還知道，在 DPV 中，不同產品之間在毛利率方面存在差異。正如我們之前在電話會議上所說，特別需要關注的是沉浸感，因為從毛利率的角度來看，沉浸感仍然是我們的好產品。這就是值得關注的。例如，如果您查看上個季度，上個季度，您會看到我們 47% 的系統銷售是沉浸式的。今年，你 - 或者這個季度，你看到，已經下降到 34%，我想說，對於未來的幾個季度來說，這更加現實。

And of course, that had an impact why the gross margin in Q1 was still very, very strong and why the gross margin in Q2 expectedly was a little bit lower. But I think that's a reset that is important. Immersion percentage for the quarters to come, more or less, mirrors what we had in Q2. And as a result of that, you build up towards the 51% to 52% that we've indicated for, for Q3.

當然，這也影響了為什麼第一季度的毛利率仍然非常非常強勁，以及為什麼第二季度的毛利率預期會低一點。但我認為這是一個重要的重置。未來幾個季度的沉浸百分比或多或少反映了我們在第二季度的情況。因此，您在第三季度達到我們所指示的 51% 到 52% 的水平。

And on the dry margins, because we were all going to ship more dry. Dry margins have generally been somewhat lower than the immersion margins because there's also more competition there, and there's a cost drive in the mature market, which is also different in the advanced market.

在乾燥邊緣，因為我們都將運輸更乾燥。幹利潤率通常略低於沉浸式利潤率，因為那裡的競爭也更多，而且成熟市場存在成本驅動，這在發達市場也有所不同。

So yes, that's -- these are lower-priced tools as you use as a KrF tool. That's a single digit to a very low double-digit number, but it depends on the configuration with a different margin profile, which is lower than our immersion margins.

所以是的，那是 - 這些是您用作 KrF 工具時價格較低的工具。這是一位數到非常低的兩位數，但這取決於具有不同邊距配置文件的配置，該配置低於我們的沉浸式邊距。

Our next question comes from the line of Dominik Olszewski of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dominik Olszewski。

The first one I wanted to discuss was the -- on the topic of silicon solvency, as you mentioned, I'm curious in your conversations with policymakers, do you consider there to be any prospects for the U.S. to allow shipments of EUV to China at the point when you're successfully rolling out High-NA tools for research purposes in 2024? Is that the technological and time buffer that you think domestic China gets access to these EUV tools?

我想討論的第一個問題是關於矽償付能力的話題，正如你提到的，我很好奇你與政策制定者的對話，你認為美國允許將 EUV 運往中國有任何前景嗎？當您在 2024 年成功推出用於研究目的的 High-NA 工具時？這是您認為中國國內獲得這些 EUV 工具的技術和時間緩衝嗎？

And then the second question is specifically just on immersion. Are you seeing momentum, or anticipating momentum to get market share gains further in immersion tools, specifically maybe to your Logic customer base?

然後第二個問題專門針對沉浸感。您是否看到了勢頭，或者期待在沉浸式工具中進一步獲得市場份額的勢頭，特別是可能對您的 Logic 客戶群？

Yes. I think on immersion market share gains, I think our market share still is already pretty high. Let's leave it at that. And EUV, I think, yes, EUV, too, is high. I mean that's a subject that we've discussed many, many times during these calls. I mean, EUV is under export control according to the Boston agreement, there's a multilateral agreement between 42 countries. And that requires an exports control license from the government of the exporting country, which, in this case, is the Netherlands. I think that's still under review.

是的。我認為在沉浸式市場份額增長方面，我認為我們的市場份額仍然已經很高。讓我們就這樣吧。 EUV，我認為，是的，EUV 也很高。我的意思是，在這些電話會議中，我們已經多次討論過這個主題。我的意思是，根據波士頓協議，EUV 受到出口管制，有 42 個國家之間的多邊協議。這需要出口國政府的出口管制許可證，在這種情況下，就是荷蘭。我認為這仍在審查中。

So -- and I think -- and this is not the place and the time to speculate on what that would mean going forward if we introduce High-NA. I think there's -- what we, of course, do know there are in-depth discussions between governments of different countries to see what they want to do. And I think it's not our role. I think we're in contact, but of course, it's up to the governments. And we just wait and see what happens.

所以 - 我認為 - 現在不是推測如果我們引入 High-NA 將意味著什麼的地方和時間。我認為有——當然，我們確實知道不同國家的政府之間會進行深入討論，看看他們想做什麼。我認為這不是我們的角色。我認為我們正在聯繫，但當然，這取決於政府。我們只是等著看會發生什麼。

Now I've said it before, the end demand of leading-edge semiconductor devices is probably not impacted from -- it will not be impacted by where we ship EUV tools. The end market will be determined by the value that's been created by those products and the ability and the willingness of the world to buy these products, which will drive the demand for high-end semiconductors, and that will drive the demand for EUV. And then we will ship EUV where EUV will -- where EUV machines will be made to make advanced semiconductors, whether it is in Korea or in the U.S. or in Europe or whatever, yes, we're going to ship those tools too.

現在我之前說過，尖端半導體設備的最終需求可能不會受到影響——它不會受到我們運送 EUV 工具的地方的影響。終端市場將取決於這些產品所創造的價值以及世界購買這些產品的能力和意願，這將推動對高端半導體的需求，進而推動對 EUV 的需求。然後我們將把 EUV 運送到 EUV 將要運送的地方——EUV 機器將在那裡製造先進的半導體，無論是在韓國、美國還是歐洲或其他任何地方，是的，我們也將運送這些工具。

Our next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc of SocGen.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Aleksander Peterc。

The first one will be just on the -- on your speed of the increase of capacity. Are your comments really pertaining pretty much to 2022? Or can you put anything in place in that? I'd just like to understand if we're basically maxed out on what you can do in 2021.

第一個將只是關於——關於你容量增加的速度。您的評論真的與 2022 年有關嗎？或者你可以在其中放置任何東西嗎？我只是想了解我們是否基本上在 2021 年能做些什麼。

And the second follow-up would be just on the phasing of 72 option revenue. It seems that you imply with your guidance that Q4 will be down year-on-year quarter-on-quarter. I just want to understand if that's due to the pull-in, in that area that you saw in the first and second quarter?

第二個後續行動將只是對 72 期權收入的分階段進行。您的指導似乎暗示第四季度將同比下降。我只是想了解這是否是由於拉入，在您在第一季度和第二季度看到的那個區域？

Yes. The increase of capacity when, I think, there are 3 ways in which you can increase capacity. And the first is basically it's 6 to 9 months. It's just being more efficient, squeezing everything out of your production process is basically what we call the reduction of cycle time. That's what you can do short term. That's what we do today.

是的。增加容量時，我認為有 3 種方法可以增加容量。第一個基本上是6到9個月。它只是更高效，從生產過程中擠出所有東西基本上就是我們所說的縮短週期時間。這就是你可以做的短期。這就是我們今天所做的。

And I think the second one is you just use the same square meters, but you hire people, you buy machines, which is especially true for our supply chain, which generally has a lead time of 12 to 18 months if you can get the machines, which, by the way, I made a comment earlier, we also see that in the machine industry also, there's going to be shortage because of also chip shortages. But that's 12 to 18 months. That brings us into 2022. And it could even be towards the second half of 2022.

我認為第二個是你只使用相同的平方米，但你僱傭人，你購買機器，這對我們的供應鏈來說尤其如此，如果你能拿到機器，通常有 12 到 18 個月的交貨時間，順便說一下，我之前發表過評論，我們也看到，在機器行業，也會因為芯片短缺而出現短缺。但那是12到18個月。這將我們帶入 2022 年。甚至可能在 2022 年下半年。

And that's what we're seeing now in the supply chain. I think everybody works on their cycle time reduction, so we are maxed out. And then if you want to add capacity, people and machines.

這就是我們現在在供應鏈中看到的。我認為每個人都在努力減少週期時間，所以我們已經筋疲力盡了。然後，如果您想增加容量、人員和機器。

And then the third one is, well, you cannot fit it in this square inches or square meters or square footage, then you need to build, which has a retail of 2 to 3 years, which will bring you to 2023, '24. And I think -- so the capacity increase that we're focusing on is within the same square meters, machines, people, cycle time reduction. And that, I think, we're maxed out for this year because it's only going to be cycle time reduction. It has to be more people, more machines, same square meters next year, and that's 2022.

然後第三個是，嗯，你不能把它放在這個平方英寸或平方米或平方英尺中，那麼你需要建造它，它的零售時間為 2 到 3 年，這將把你帶到 2023 年，'24。我認為 - 所以我們關注的產能增加是在相同的平方米、機器、人員、週期時間減少的範圍內。而且，我認為，我們今年已經達到極限，因為它只會減少週期時間。明年必須有更多的人、更多的機器、同樣的平方米，那就是 2022 年。

Aleksander, on your second question and your line broke up a little bit, but I understood your question to be the distribution of the installed base revenue over the first half and the second half of the year. And that is a correct observation. So in the first half, we had EUR 2.3 billion revenue for installed base. And with the indication of 50% growth over last year, you would get to EUR 1.9 billion for the second half of the year.

Aleksander，關於您的第二個問題，您的產品線有點中斷，但我理解您的問題是上半年和下半年安裝基數收入的分佈情況。這是一個正確的觀察。因此，上半年，我們的安裝基礎收入為 23 億歐元。與去年相比增長 50%，下半年將達到 19 億歐元。

And you're quite right. As we also indicated, there has been quite some pull in of the -- particularly the software-related upgrades by customers who want a relatively easy way to increase capacity without having to give us too much machine time. So both in Q1 and Q2, we actually got more of these software related upgrades than we anticipated. And yes, there was a bit of pull in there from the second half. So that's the correct observation.

你說得對。正如我們還指出的那樣，已經有相當多的吸引力——尤其是那些想要一種相對簡單的方法來增加容量而不必給我們太多機器時間的客戶進行的與軟件相關的升級。因此，在第一季度和第二季度，我們實際上獲得的這些軟件相關升級比我們預期的要多。是的，從下半場開始有一點拉力。所以這是正確的觀察。

Our next question comes from the line of Stephane Houri of ODDO BHF.

我們的下一個問題來自 ODDO BHF 的 Stephane Houri。

I have a question back on margins. And maybe if you could update us on the evolution of the gross margin at EUV services. And the question linked to that, so the follow-up would be, what is, in your view, your potential for gross margin improvement, if you put together the improvement of EUV services margins, but also the fact that now you're selling the 3600D, which carries, if I'm correct, the same kind of margins that the rest of the tools. Yes. That's basically my question.

我有一個關於利潤的問題。也許你能告訴我們 EUV 服務毛利率的演變情況。與此相關的問題是，如果你把 EUV 服務利潤率的提高和現在你正在銷售的事實放在一起，那麼在你看來，你認為毛利率提高的潛力是什麼？ 3600D，如果我沒記錯的話，它的邊距與其他工具相同。是的。這基本上是我的問題。

Okay. So in terms of EUV service gross margin, as you know, we broke even last year on that. This quarter, we guided to 25% gross margin on EUV service. And I think we've said that within about 4 years' time, we believe that we get that gross margin level to approximately corporate gross margin level. That's what the intent is, and that is primarily by driving down costs and by helping customers run the machines more efficiently such that more wafers get produced. And as a result of that, we get more wafers compensated therefore. So that's the model there.

好的。因此，就 EUV 服務毛利率而言，如您所知，我們去年在這方面實現了收支平衡。本季度，我們將 EUV 服務的毛利率引導至 25%。而且我認為我們已經說過，在大約 4 年的時間內，我們相信我們的毛利率水平會達到大約公司毛利率水平。這就是目的，主要是通過降低成本和幫助客戶更有效地運行機器，從而生產更多的晶圓。因此，我們得到了更多的晶圓補償。這就是那裡的模型。

And 25% from 0 in a couple of quarter's time, of course, is a big uptick. But I think that is the aggressive curve. So the first 25% is, of course, a big development. But then you will see that improvement gradually slow down.

當然，在幾個季度的時間內從 0 增長 25% 是一個很大的增長。但我認為這是激進的曲線。因此，前 25% 當然是一個很大的發展。但隨後你會看到改善逐漸放緩。

In terms of systems gross margin. On the D, the D tool gets us to the corporate gross margin. That's the way to look at it. So still below the DPV gross margin, but at the corporate gross margin. With the E tool, we hope to get the gross margin to the DPV level. And at that stage, we have EUV and DPV be at the same level. That's the intent. That's what we're looking at. And of course, the E will be introduced in a little under 2 years from -- or 2 years from now. And that's the one that should get us to a DPV type of gross margin levels.

在系統毛利率方面。在 D 上，D 工具將我們帶到公司毛利率。這就是看待它的方式。所以仍然低於 DPV 毛利率，但在公司毛利率。借助 E 工具，我們希望毛利率達到 DPV 水平。在那個階段，我們讓 EUV 和 DPV 處於同一水平。這就是意圖。這就是我們正在研究的。當然，E 將在不到 2 年或 2 年後推出。這應該讓我們達到 DPV 類型的毛利率水平。

Our next question comes from the line of Rolf Bulk, New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Rolf Bulk。

You mentioned that around 1 billion of EUV tools are being purchased by DRAM manufacturers this year. And that is primarily for bit capacity for next year and beyond, because your lead times for EUV tools are still very long today.

您提到今年 DRAM 製造商正在購買大約 10 億個 EUV 工具。這主要是針對明年及以後的位容量，因為今天您的 EUV 工具的交貨時間仍然很長。

My question is how should we think about the DRAM EUV business in the context of '22, '23. Do you see a risk of a pullback in DRAM lithography spending as cycle times for EUV tools come down and manufacturers maybe do not need to buy this capacity 1.5 to 2 years in advance anymore?

我的問題是，在 22、23 的背景下，我們應該如何看待 DRAM EUV 業務。您是否認為隨著 EUV 工具的周期時間下降以及製造商可能不再需要提前 1.5 到 2 年購買這種能力，DRAM 光刻支出有回落的風險？

Yes. I think the -- we won't be -- I think the exact number this year is probably 1.2 billion, so it's a bit higher. So of the -- and you are right. I mean, of the 1.2 billion of EUV in our 2021 Memory guidance or DRAM guidance, I mean you'll need to really look at a bit capacity additions from those machines not in 2021. It's going to be later.

是的。我認為 - 我們不會 - 我認為今年的確切數字可能是 12 億，所以它有點高。所以——你是對的。我的意思是，在我們的 2021 年內存指南或 DRAM 指南中的 12 億個 EUV 中，我的意思是你需要真正看看那些不是在 2021 年的機器增加的容量。這將是以後。

I think on 2022, 2023, when we look at the road maps, the customer road maps, yes, we will see as a higher number of deep -- of EUV shipments for DRAM, and it's driven basically by the capacity build-outs that they are planning. And yes, when cycle times go down, then also order lead times go down, but so it will have more -- as a more significant effect on when they place the orders, not so much when they need the tools because the tools are based on the fab planning. And as you know, these fab plans are sometimes years out. So we have 2, 3 years of planning visibility.

我認為在 2022 年、2023 年，當我們查看路線圖、客戶路線圖時，是的，我們將看到更多的深度 - DRAM 的 EUV 出貨量，這基本上是由產能建設推動的他們正在計劃。是的，當週期時間下降時，訂單提前期也會下降，但它會產生更多的影響——對他們下訂單的時間產生更顯著的影響，而不是當他們需要工具時，因為工具是基於關於晶圓廠規劃。如您所知，這些晶圓廠計劃有時需要數年才能完成。因此，我們有 2、3 年的規劃可見性。

So that will drive the, let's say, the build capacity, our build capacity and the potential sales and it will have an impact on the orders, on the deals, which will be probably coming in a bit later as you actually seen last quarter, I mean, there's a significant number of EUV tools that came in as PO, because there we have long lead times. And actually that stretches our order coverage in terms of our capacity that we have for next year to the point where 80% of our capacity is now ordered.

因此，這將推動建設能力、我們的建設能力和潛在銷售，這將對訂單和交易產生影響，正如你上個季度實際看到的那樣，這可能會在稍後出現，我的意思是，有大量的 EUV 工具以 PO 的形式出現，因為我們有很長的交貨時間。實際上，就我們明年的產能而言，這將我們的訂單覆蓋範圍擴大到現在訂購了 80% 的產能。

I mean that will have -- that will change going forward with lead times going down but not so much the sales. Sales will be driven by the RAM plans and the capacity plans of our customers. And those are pretty well known because of the big projection that take years.

我的意思是，這將隨著交貨時間的下降而改變，但銷售量不會太大。銷售將由我們客戶的 RAM 計劃和容量計劃推動。這些都是眾所周知的，因為需要數年的大預測。

And those RAM plans are also based on layer count, all right? And that's very clear from the customers that indicate that the plan to increase the layer count of the OBV and DRAM manufacturing.

而且那些 RAM 計劃也是基於層數的，好嗎？客戶表示計劃增加 OBV 和 DRAM 製造的層數，這一點非常清楚。

And just to give you one more data point. So this year, you're looking at approximately 20% of the EUV revenue. So 20% of, let's say, the -- of the EUR 6 billion, EUR 1.2 billion, that's the number, I think it's fair to assume that the same percentage will apply to next year. So that gives you -- and as you know, we're at least expanding capacity for EUV for next year. So that gives you an indication that we do see continued growth in the EUV insertion into DRAM and with the commensurate growth in revenue from that.

只是為了給你一個更多的數據點。所以今年，你看到了大約 20% 的 EUV 收入。因此，假設 60 億歐元中的 20%，即 12 億歐元，就是這個數字，我認為可以公平地假設相同的百分比將適用於明年。所以這給了你——正如你所知，我們至少在明年擴大 EUV 的產能。因此，這表明我們確實看到了 EUV 插入 DRAM 的持續增長，以及相應的收入增長。

So absolute numbers will grow, because like you said, next year, we'll have 55 units capacity, which we'll probably very likely will sell that. But it also means that from an absolute shipment number point of view, it will keep growing for both Logic and for DRAM.

所以絕對數字會增長，因為就像你說的，明年我們將擁有 55 個單位的產能，我們很可能會出售。但這也意味著，從絕對出貨量來看，Logic 和 DRAM 都將保持增長。

And our next question comes from the line of Robert Sanders at Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅伯特桑德斯。

I just had one, which is about EUV layer count from 3-nanometer to 2 nanometer. That 20 SMC will be introducing gate all around. Most observers seem to think there will be close to 0 pitch scaling from that transition as TSMC did from 20-nanometer to 14 when the FinFET was introduced. So I was just wondering if that's something you were anticipating in your plan.

我只有一個，它是關於從 3 納米到 2 納米的 EUV 層數。那 20 個 SMC 將在周圍引入門。大多數觀察家似乎認為，從這種過渡中，間距縮放將接近 0，就像台積電在引入 FinFET 時從 20 納米到 14 納米所做的那樣。所以我只是想知道這是否是你在計劃中所期待的。

No. I don't -- we don't have that view. I think there is -- on the 3 nanometer node and the 2-nanometer node that we look at, the tools that we'll be using are different machines on those nodes. And also, there will be an introduction of double patterning EUV, which is basically helping the pitch scaling. So we have a different view.

不，我沒有——我們沒有這種觀點。我認為，在我們研究的 3 納米節點和 2 納米節點上，我們將使用的工具是這些節點上的不同機器。此外，還將引入雙圖案 EUV，這基本上有助於間距縮放。所以我們有不同的看法。

And our view of the transition from FinFET to gate all around will be layer count agnostic. So that's going to be layered.

我們對從 FinFET 到柵極的過渡的看法將與層數無關。所以這將是分層的。

Yes. On the pitch scaling, there will be an introduction of double patterning at that moment. But Roger is correct. I mean in terms of layers, it doesn't matter.

是的。在音高縮放方面，屆時將引入雙重模式。但羅傑是對的。我的意思是就層次而言，沒關係。

The next question comes from the line of Andrew Gardiner at Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Gardiner。

I wanted to come back to the point you were making around DUV capacity. In particular, for this year, just to try and establish a baseline, can you give us a sense as to how much of the -- of this year's revenue is being driven by both the butter stocks sort of the drawdown of that inventory that you've got? If I'm doing my math right, based on your guidance, we're now talking about a low EUR 8 billion level of DUV revenue this year. So yes, how much of that is coming from the inventory?

我想回到你圍繞 DUV 容量提出的觀點。特別是今年，只是為了嘗試建立一個基線，你能否告訴我們今年的收入有多少是由黃油庫存和你減少的庫存所驅動的？有嗎？如果我的數學計算正確，根據您的指導，我們現在談論的是今年 DUV 收入低至 80 億歐元。所以是的，其中有多少來自庫存？

Yes. I think let me put it -- let met answer that in a different way. I think this is -- you really have to go deep into the supply chain, because it's in our service inventory. It's in the supply chain inventory. So I would have to really go deeper to give you an exact percentage.

是的。我想讓我說一下——讓我們以不同的方式回答這個問題。我認為這是 - 你真的必須深入供應鏈，因為它在我們的服務庫存中。它在供應鏈庫存中。所以我必須更深入地給你一個確切的百分比。

But if we look at the 2022 DUV plants and especially for immersion, not so much for KrF because that's where we can see some improvement in terms of shipment numbers. But I think in terms of immersion 2022, I would currently think that our immersion sales number will be about the same as this year. Whereby this year, we, of course, were helped by this, you could say, onetime depletion of the stocks, is creating them from everywhere that we could.

但是，如果我們看看 2022 年的 DUV 工廠，尤其是浸沒式工廠，那麼對於 KrF 來說就不那麼重要了，因為我們可以在出貨數量方面看到一些改進。但我認為就 2022 年的沉浸式而言，我目前認為我們的沉浸式銷售數字將與今年大致相同。今年，我們當然得到了幫助，你可以說，曾經的庫存耗盡，正在我們可以從任何地方創造它們。

So I wouldn't at this moment in time -- because don't forget, I mean, the immersion numbers this year are quite high. I think from an immersion point of view, you have to go back a long time to look at similar shipment numbers. I think it will probably be the same next year. But next year, we will not have the advantage of being able to deplete the stock. So this is the way that I would look at it.

所以我不會在這個時候——因為不要忘記，我的意思是，今年的沉浸數字相當高。我認為從沉浸的角度來看，您必須返回很長時間才能查看類似的出貨量。我想明年可能還是一樣。但是明年，我們將沒有能夠耗盡庫存的優勢。所以這就是我看待它的方式。

And on KrF, some dry season there, you could see higher numbers next year because that's where we actually need the capacity. And that was also the answer to one of the earlier questions, where do we see it. I think we basically see this dry demand coming out of, I would say, the specialty markets or the mature markets, which is basically everywhere. So hopefully, that answers your question, Andrew.

在 KrF 上，那裡的某個旱季，明年你可能會看到更高的數字，因為那是我們真正需要容量的地方。這也是早期問題之一的答案，我們在哪裡看到它。我認為我們基本上看到這種干涸的需求來自專業市場或成熟市場，它們基本上無處不在。所以希望這能回答你的問題，安德魯。

Yes. It does. I mean if I could just follow up with that quickly. I mean you're talking about a "significant" double-digit increase in capacity to DUV. Clearly, not all of that is going to come online in '22. That presumably is just the starting point. But if we look out over the next couple of years, I mean, significant, perhaps to state the obvious is not 10%. And I know you want to save something for September. But I mean it feels like you're talking 20% plus or minus you have that kind of a ballpark? Would that be reasonable?

是的。確實如此。我的意思是，如果我能盡快跟進。我的意思是你說的是 DUV 容量的“顯著”兩位數增長。顯然，並非所有這些都會在 22 年上線。這大概只是起點。但如果我們展望未來幾年，我的意思是，意義重大，也許可以說顯而易見的不是 10%。我知道你想為九月存點錢。但我的意思是感覺就像你在說 20% 的正負值你有這樣的一個球場？那會合理嗎？

Yes. I mean you know us for a long time, so you can assess what significant means in our terms, and that's not 10%, as you pointed out. But what it is, we'll probably be more specific in September, the end of September. But yes, you also -- when capacity comes online, there's also a lead time between when the capacity comes online, when we get the models, the part, we can make the tools and we can ship it to the customers.

是的。我的意思是你認識我們很長時間了，所以你可以評估我們所說的重要意味著什麼，這不是你指出的 10%。但它是什麼，我們可能會在 9 月，即 9 月底更具體。但是，是的，你也 - 當產能上線時，在產能上線與我們獲得模型、零件、製造工具並將其運送給客戶之間也有一個提前期。

So part of that capacity that will come online, that significant capacity increase, which will be indeed double digit, that will have an effect in 2023, not in 2022. When it's available January 1, 2022, then you are right. But that's -- I pointed out, I mean, people and machines and potentially using extra square meters, it takes 12 to 18 months before it's there. And then they need to produce, and then we need to produce and then it needs to be installed.

因此，將上線的部分容量，即顯著的容量增加，確實是兩位數，將在 2023 年產生影響，而不是在 2022 年。當它在 2022 年 1 月 1 日可用時，你是對的。但那是 - 我指出，我的意思是，人員和機器以及可能使用額外的平方米，它需要 12 到 18 個月才能出現。然後他們需要生產，然後我們需要生產，然後需要安裝。

So I think we will see that capacity increase definitely occurring next year. And how much of that we can use for output, that still remains to be seen. And we're figuring that out together with our suppliers.

所以我認為我們會看到明年肯定會出現產能增加。我們可以將其中多少用於輸出，還有待觀察。我們正在與我們的供應商一起解決這個問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Didier Scemama of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Didier Scemama。

I have a first question and a quick follow-up. And maybe, Peter, if you could share your thoughts with us on a sort of a debate in the market that you also touched on your -- one of the 3 long-term drivers. So in the U.S., they've identified effectively a gap between what's being produced in the U.S. and what's being consumed. I think the numbers are 12% and 40%, if I remember correctly.

我有第一個問題和快速跟進。也許，彼得，如果你能與我們分享你對市場辯論的看法，你也談到了你的 - 3 個長期驅動因素之一。因此，在美國，他們有效地確定了美國生產的產品和消費的產品之間的差距。如果我沒記錯的話，我認為數字是 12% 和 40%。

So my question to you is if we were to narrow that gap substantially, how much spending on lease equipment that need to happen, number one. And number two, how long will it take to actually get there realistically? And then I've got a quick follow-up.

所以我要問你的問題是，如果我們要大幅縮小這一差距，那麼需要在租賃設備上花費多少，第一。第二，實際到達那裡需要多長時間？然後我有一個快速跟進。

Yes. I think you might be surprised, but yes, I think it doesn't matter that much. Because we assume -- and I think that's a right assumption. If you look at the expansion plans, which are more, well, let's say more concrete in the U.S. But as you know, that, that discussion is also happening in Europe. These expansions will not be made by just a new company coming online. It will be the, I would say, established players, the leaders that have the capability and the competence to build those fabs and to manage them and have to process knowledge to copy exact, if I may use that word, those processes from all the parts of the world into the U.S. and into Europe.

是的。我想你可能會感到驚訝，但是是的，我認為這並不重要。因為我們假設——我認為這是一個正確的假設。如果你看一下擴張計劃，那就是更多，好吧，讓我們說在美國更具體。但正如你所知，這種討論也在歐洲發生。這些擴展不會僅由一家新公司上線。我會說，這將是成熟的參與者、領導者，他們有能力和能力建造這些晶圓廠並管理它們，並且必須處理知識以準確複製（如果我可以使用這個詞）來自所有世界部分地區進入美國和歐洲。

And those companies, they are going to build those fabs to make sure that they can supply the market with the needs for those products. And it's going to be just a few companies which are going to be rational. I don't think that any administration can go to the CEOs of one of those companies and say because we want that capacity, you have build it. And it's going to be idle. It's going to be completely inefficient. And we're going to do that. So it's going to be rational. And all the information that we have points to those few companies that have the capability to build those fabs. So I think for my little point of view, yes there will be some inefficiency. Because you are building a new fab, a new operations in a place where you cannot piggyback on your local ecosystem if you do it in this different part of the world. So yes, there will be -- so there's a ramp-up time for those fabs would be somewhat inefficient. But it's not going to be double-digit percentages. I don't believe that at all. The rationale behavior of our key customers is -- will simply prevent that.

而那些公司，他們將建造這些晶圓廠，以確保他們能夠為市場提供這些產品的需求。而且只有少數幾家公司是理性的。我認為任何政府都不能去找其中一家公司的首席執行官說因為我們想要這種能力，所以你已經建立了它。而且它將是空閒的。這將是完全低效的。我們將這樣做。所以這將是理性的。我們掌握的所有信息都指向那些有能力建造這些晶圓廠的少數公司。所以我認為，就我的小觀點而言，是的，會有一些效率低下。因為你正在建造一個新的晶圓廠，一個新的運營地點，如果你在世界的這個不同的地方做，你就無法依賴當地的生態系統。所以是的，會有 - 所以這些晶圓廠有一個加速時間會有點低效。但這不會是兩位數的百分比。我根本不相信。我們主要客戶的基本行為是——只會阻止這種情況。

Now how long will it take? I don't think we will see anything coming out of those fabs before 2024-2025. So I'd say it's a couple of years out. I mean, building those fab will take 2 to 3 years. And then they need to ramp. As you know, these will be big fabs. And they don't ramp all at once. They ramp in phases. So it's going to be 2024 onwards, '25, '26, and so it's not going to be short term. But again, yes, I think the drive for this technological sovereignty is really based on the assumption that also this industry will -- or the industry of our customers, the semiconductor industry, might very well double in terms of sales over the next 10 years, which means that just from a geographical risk point of view and from a manufacturing risk point of view, the desire to just spread the manufacturing capability across the globe, driven by a few manufacturers, a few large manufacturers that have the competence to do that, that seems very logical. And I think -- so I think it will happen.

現在需要多長時間？我認為在 2024 年至 2025 年之前，我們不會看到這些晶圓廠有任何產出。所以我會說這是幾年後的事情。我的意思是，建造這些工廠需要 2 到 3 年。然後他們需要斜坡。如您所知，這些將是大型晶圓廠。而且它們不會一下子全部傾斜。他們分階段進行。所以這將是 2024 年以後，'25，'26，所以這不會是短期的。但同樣，是的，我認為這種技術主權的驅動力實際上是基於這樣的假設，即這個行業——或者我們客戶的行業，半導體行業，在未來 10 年的銷售額很可能翻一番，這意味著僅從地理風險的角度和製造風險的角度來看，在少數製造商、少數有能力這樣做的大型製造商的推動下，希望在全球範圍內傳播製造能力，這似乎很合乎邏輯。我認為——所以我認為它會發生。

It will not create massive inefficiency, some inefficiency, which of course will help us a bit. But it will be driven by, I think, rationality and it will be driven by government subsidies. That's true. So that's -- when you're a taxpayer in those jurisdiction, it's your world.

它不會造成巨大的低效率，一些低效率，這當然會對我們有所幫助。但我認為，這將是由理性驅動的，它將由政府補貼驅動。這是真的。所以這就是——當你是這些司法管轄區的納稅人時，這就是你的世界。

As a quick follow-up, I just wanted to come back to DUV. My question to you, Peter, is very simple. Over the years, the semiconductor industry has never managed to effectively exert pricing power with that customer base for all the reasons that we can imagine.

作為快速跟進，我只想回到 DUV。彼得，我的問題很簡單。多年來，出於我們可以想像的所有原因，半導體行業從未設法有效地對客戶群施加定價權。

But now that -- I'm not saying you should abuse that pricing power, but now that you're in a slightly different position, you're talking about the doubling of market demand over the next 10 years, et cetera, and given the investments that you have to make and particularly shareholders are also worried that, hey, is this the right time to add that much capacity, would it be feasible for ASML to ask your customers to effectively pay in advance for those DUV tools so that you completely derisk your model and completely eliminate the risk for double ordering or triple ordering?

但現在——我並不是說你應該濫用定價權，但現在你的立場略有不同，你說的是未來 10 年市場需求翻番，等等，並且鑑於您必須進行的投資，特別是股東也擔心，嘿，現在是增加這麼多產能的合適時機嗎？ASML 是否可行要求您的客戶有效地提前為那些 DUV 工具付款，以便您完全取消您的模型並完全消除雙重訂購或三重訂購的風險？

Well, it's always a good question to ask as an entrepreneur to derisk completely their business model. But to be very honest, I mean, that never happens. And I don't think it's the way also we need to deal with our customers, which is only a handful, and there's a handful of equipment players.

好吧，作為一名企業家，提出完全放棄他們的商業模式總是一個很好的問題。但老實說，我的意思是，這永遠不會發生。而且我不認為這也是我們與客戶打交道的方式，客戶數量很少，而且設備玩家也很少。

And on deep UV, yes, I think we will charge our customers the value of those machines. And to give you an example, we will put deep UV KrF on NXT platform, which will significantly increase the productivity for our customers, which also, I think we are entitled to part of that value and which I think they will pay us.

在深紫外線方面，是的，我認為我們將向客戶收取這些機器的價值。舉個例子，我們將把深紫外 KrF 放在 NXT 平台上，這將顯著提高我們客戶的生產力，我認為我們也有權獲得該價值的一部分，我認為他們會支付給我們。

So I think the way that we look at increasing prices is really to provide our customers more value, not to say, well, we're in a squeeze situation, which could be last for -- it's a couple of years, but then we're back to normal again. And then customers will push back in this traditional customer supply relationship. That's not the way this industry works. And I don't think this industry should work this way. We have to provide value, and we have many opportunities to create value for our customers and thereby asking a higher price, but the customer will get the value. That's how we work.

因此，我認為我們看待漲價的方式實際上是為我們的客戶提供更多價值，並不是說，好吧，我們處於緊縮狀態，這可能會持續 - 幾年，但隨後我們'又恢復了正常。然後客戶會在這種傳統的客戶供應關係中反擊。這不是這個行業的運作方式。而且我認為這個行業不應該以這種方式運作。我們必須提供價值，我們有很多機會為客戶創造價值，從而要求更高的價格，但客戶會得到價值。這就是我們的工作方式。

I think on the risk of the capacity increases, I said it before: I think where we've structurally underestimated the growth of this industry and with everything that we're seeing today, I think there are good reasons to believe that the underlying demand of what we see, and especially in dry deep UV and the application space that deep UV is servicing, there is a very good reason to add extra capacity because we need that capacity.

我認為關於產能增加的風險，我之前說過：我認為我們在結構上低估了這個行業的增長以及我們今天看到的一切，我認為有充分的理由相信潛在的需求在我們所看到的情況中，特別是在乾式深紫外線和深紫外線所服務的應用領域，我們有充分的理由增加額外的容量，因為我們需要這種容量。

And we will sell those too. We will make more money, and I think we'll satisfy our shareholders, and I think the risk is limited. And short term, we always have small cycles. But longer term, I don't see the risk.

我們也會賣掉那些。我們會賺更多的錢，我想我們會讓我們的股東滿意，我認為風險是有限的。短期內，我們總是有小周期。但從長遠來看，我認為沒有風險。

And in terms of paying in advance, just to remind everyone that, of course, paying in advance does happen on the EUV front. So on the EUV front, given the long lead times, we do have prepayment schedules with our customers, which are significant and also clear, I think, from the free cash flow generation of ASML in the past 12 months.

而在預付費方面，只是提醒大家，當然，預付費確實發生在 EUV 前端。所以在 EUV 方面，鑑於較長的交貨時間，我們確實與客戶有預付款計劃，我認為，從過去 12 個月 ASML 產生的自由現金流來看，這很重要而且也很明確。

So I think in that way, the comment that you made, I think we're doing that. But not to -- we don't do it in this specific circumstance but just do it as a matter of principle, because of the very long lead times that we have in UV.

所以我認為以這種方式，你發表的評論，我認為我們正在這樣做。但不是——我們不會在這種特定情況下這樣做，而是原則上這樣做，因為我們在紫外線方面的交貨時間很長。

That's a very good point, Roger, because I mean, the lead times of deep UV are a lot shorter, which also means that you can manage the supply and demand better. But we will increase the capacity also -- not only a day of loss but also in the supply chain. But again, based on our strong conviction that we need that capacity going forward, because of the market developments that we are seeing. And I think that risk, we believe, is limited.

這是一個很好的觀點，羅傑，因為我的意思是，深紫外線的交貨時間要短得多，這也意味著你可以更好地管理供需。但我們也會增加產能——不僅是一天的損失，而且是供應鏈中的損失。但同樣，基於我們堅信我們需要這種能力，因為我們看到的市場發展。我認為，我們認為，這種風險是有限的。

All right. Thank you. We have time for one last question. If you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Now operator, may we have the last caller, please?

好的。謝謝你。我們有時間回答最後一個問題。如果您無法接通本次電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯繫 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。現在接線員，我們可以請最後一個來電者嗎？

That's the line of C.J. Muse at Evercore ISI.

這就是 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse 的產品線。

I guess first question, Peter, I wanted to clarify a comment you made to Andrew. Were you guiding immersion units next year flat, or was that a commentary around supply availability before adding new capacity?

我想第一個問題，彼得，我想澄清你對安德魯的評論。您是在明年指導浸入式裝置持平，還是在增加新容量之前對供應可用性進行評論？

Yes. It also might have been a bit convoluted answer, but what I was trying to do because basically giving you 2, I would say, messages. We have in 2021, which is this year, we have, you could say, a spurt sales because of the fact that we're depleting everything we can find in terms of inventory. And some would argue that some of our minimum stocking levels for service might be at a real minimum, because we're using everything to make our machines. So that is this onetime step-up, which gives you an immersion number that is high. I think that will be probably the number that we're also looking for, for next year where we don't have that ability to have this onetime step-up. So we're effectively increasing capacity and getting to that same level.

是的。這也可能是一個有點令人費解的答案，但我想做的是因為基本上給你 2，我會說，消息。我們在 2021 年，也就是今年，我們有，你可以說，銷售激增，因為我們正在耗盡我們在庫存方面能找到的所有東西。有些人會爭辯說，我們的一些最低服務庫存水平可能處於真正的最低水平，因為我們正在使用一切來製造我們的機器。所以這就是一次性的提升，它會給你一個很高的沉浸感。我認為這可能是我們也在尋找的數字，明年我們沒有能力進行一次升級。所以我們正在有效地增加容量並達到同樣的水平。

But that's basically how I think we should look at next year because that is what, I think, from a capacity point of view, with what we are seeing, we can do in terms of cycle time reduction in terms of putting some extra people to work we can do, so effectively, in the increasing capacity but ending up at about the same number.

但這基本上是我認為我們明年應該看待的方式，因為我認為，從產能的角度來看，根據我們所看到的，我們可以在減少週期時間方面做些什麼，比如讓一些額外的人參與我們可以如此有效地完成工作，增加容量，但最終數量大致相同。

Okay. Helpful. And then just a quick follow-up, Roger. At your last Analyst Day, you targeted 55-plus percent gross margin. As you think about calendar '22 and exiting this year with EUV margins of 50-plus EUV service moving higher as they come off warranty and a pretty robust mix from DUV, why wouldn't we be approaching that kind of number in calendar '22?

好的。有幫助。然後只是快速跟進，羅傑。在您的最後一個分析師日，您的目標是 55% 以上的毛利率。當您考慮日曆 '22 並在今年退出時，隨著 EUV 服務超過 50 倍的 EUV 利潤隨著保修期和 DUV 的強大組合而上升，我們為什麼不在日曆 '22 中接近這種數字?

So first of all, I don't think in a Capital Markets Day, we mentioned 55%. If I recall correctly, we had 50% there, but we did have 2 arrows in front of it, leaving it entirely to your imagination how far you wanted to stretch that.

所以首先，我不認為在資本市場日，我們提到了 55%。如果我沒記錯的話，我們在那裡有 50%，但我們確實在它前面有 2 個箭頭，這完全取決於你想把它延伸到多遠。

So I think '22, based on the number of the dynamics that I mentioned, certainly from a gross margin perspective, has promise in there for sure. But it's way too early to give any definitive guidance on that. But you would have seen -- if you look at the trajectory over the year, you would see that we're now guiding 50%, the 50% -- 152 percentage for next quarter. That's a good basis. That has already quite a bit of D in there. Of course, next year, everything would be D. Next year, you would benefit from the 2050 a bit more than you would this year. So there's a bit of potential there, but it's still a bit too early to give any guidance on what it's going to look like next year.

所以我認為'22，基於我提到的動態數量，當然從毛利率的角度來看，肯定有希望。但現在給出任何明確的指導還為時過早。但是你會看到——如果你看一下一年的軌跡，你會看到我們現在指導下個季度的 50%，即 50%——152%。這是一個很好的基礎。那已經有相當多的D了。當然，明年，一切都將是 D。明年，您將從 2050 年獲得的收益比今年多一點。所以那裡有一些潛力，但現在就明年的情況給出任何指導還為時過早。

All right. Before we sign off, I'd like to remind you that our Investor Day is currently planned to be held in London on September 29, 2021, COVID conditions permitting. We will keep you posted on details and hope you'll be able to join us.

好的。在我們簽字之前，我想提醒您，我們的投資者日目前計劃在 COVID 條件允許的情況下於 2021 年 9 月 29 日在倫敦舉行。我們會及時向您發布詳細信息，並希望您能夠加入我們。

Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thank you.

現在我代表 ASML，感謝大家今天加入我們。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝你。

Thank you. This now concludes the meeting. Thank you all very much for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝你。會議到此結束。非常感謝大家的出席。您現在可以斷開線路。