艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2021 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on July 21, 2021. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to open the question -- I'll now hand the floor to our speakers. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2021 年 7 月 21 日舉行的 ASML 2021 年第二季財務業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）現在我想提出這個問題——我現在將發言權交給我們的發言人。 （操作員指示）

I'd like to now turn the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please begin your meeting.

現在我想將電話會議交給 Skip Miller 先生。請開始會議。

All right. Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2021 second quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com.

好的。謝謝您，接線生。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink；以及我們的財務長 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是ASML 2021年第二季業績。此次通話時間為 60 分鐘，問題將依照收到的順序進行解答。此次電話會議也透過 asml.com 進行網路現場直播。

A transcript of the management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call. Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties.

管理層開場白的記錄和電話會議的重播將在本次電話會議結束後不久在我們的網站上提供。在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。

For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明可在我們的網站 asml.com 上找到，也可以在 ASML 的 20-F 表格年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our Q2 2021 results conference call. I hope all of you and your families are healthy and safe.

謝謝你，斯基普。歡迎大家，感謝您參加我們的 2021 年第二季業績電話會議。我希望你們和你們的家人都健康、平安。

But before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the second quarter as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. And Roger will start with a review of our Q2 2021 financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook. Roger, if you want.

但在開始問答環節之前，羅傑和我想對第二季度進行概述和評論，並對未來幾季發表看法。羅傑將首先回顧我們 2021 年第二季的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表評論。最後，我將對當前的商業環境和我們未來的業務前景發表一些補充評論，以完成介紹。羅傑，如果你願意的話。

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the second quarter financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the third quarter of 2021.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第二季度的財務業績，然後對 2021 年第三季提供指導。

Net sales came in within guidance at EUR 4.0 billion. The guided lower revenue was due to a number of systems in the quarter that did not receive factory acceptance testing due to customers' desire to bring systems into production as quickly as possible. Therefore, revenue will be recognized in subsequent quarters after completion of acceptance testing at customer sites.

淨銷售額達 40 億歐元，符合預期。預計收入較低的原因是本季的許多系統沒有接受工廠驗收測試，因為客戶希望盡快將系統投入生產。因此，在客戶現場完成驗收測試後，將在隨後的幾季確認收入。

We shipped 10 EUV systems and recognized EUR 1.3 billion revenue from 9 systems this quarter. Two EUV systems shipped this quarter without factory acceptance testing, so revenue will be recognized in the subsequent quarter after customer site acceptance. For the system we shipped in Q1 without factory acceptance testing, we were able to complete site acceptance tests and recognized revenue in Q2. Again, the net result is 9 EUV revenue systems in Q2.

本季我們出貨了 10 套 EUV 系統，並從 9 套系統實現了 13 億歐元的營收。本季出貨的兩套 EUV 系統未經工廠驗收測試，因此收入將在客戶現場驗收後的下一季確認。對於我們在第一季交付的未經工廠驗收測試的系統，我們能夠在第二季完成現場驗收測試並確認收入。再一次，最終結果是第二季有 9 個 EUV 收入系統。

Net system sales of EUR 2.9 billion was again more weighted towards Logic at 72%, with the remaining 28% from Memory. The strength in Logic drives both DPV and EUV revenue. The Memory business is mainly driven by DRAM. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.1 billion above guidance due to increased upgrade business as customers continue to pull forward software upgrades that can quickly increase productivity of systems in this high semiconductor demand environment.

29 億歐元的淨系統銷售額中，邏輯產品佔比重再次增加到 72%，其餘 28% 來自記憶體。邏輯上的優勢推動了 DPV 和 EUV 的收入。記憶體業務主要由 DRAM 驅動。本季安裝基礎管理銷售額比預期高出 11 億歐元，原因是客戶繼續推進軟體升級，從而在這種高半導體需求環境下快速提高系統生產率，導致升級業務增加。

Gross margin for the quarter was 50.9% and was above guidance, primarily due to the additional software upgrade business and one-off revenue accounting releases. On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 634 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 172 million, which was slightly lower than our guidance. Net income in Q2 was EUR 1.0 billion, representing 25.8% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 2.52.

本季毛利率為 50.9%，高於預期，主要由於額外的軟體升級業務和一次性收入會計發布。在營運費用方面，研發費用為 6.34 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用為 1.72 億歐元，略低於我們的預期。第二季淨收入為 10 億歐元，佔淨銷售額的 25.8%，每股收益為 2.52 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 5.4 billion.

轉向資產負債表。截至第二季末，我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資總額為 54 億歐元。

Moving to the order book. Q2 net system bookings came in at a record EUR 8.3 billion, including EUR 4.9 billion for EUV systems. The very strong order intake for both EUV and DPV is a reflection of the global demand environment across all markets. Order intake was largely driven by Logic with 71% of the bookings, and memory accounted for the remaining 29%. The majority of EUV orders continue to come from Logic customers, but we also had our largest EUV order intake for DRAM this quarter coming from multiple customers.

移至訂單簿。第二季淨系統訂單金額達到創紀錄的 83 億歐元，其中 EUV 系統訂單金額為 49 億歐元。 EUV 和 DPV 的訂單量都非常強勁，這反映了全球所有市場的需求環境。訂單量主要由邏輯驅動，佔訂單量的 71%，而記憶體則佔剩餘的 29%。大部分 EUV 訂單仍來自 Logic 客戶，但本季我們也從多個客戶那裡獲得了最大的 DRAM EUV 訂單。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the third quarter of 2021. We expect Q3 total net sales to be between EUR 5.2 billion and EUR 5.4 billion. We expect our Q3 installed base management sales to be around EUR 1.0 billion. Gross margin for Q3 is expected to be between 51% and 52%. Expected R&D expenses for Q3 are around EUR 645 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at around $180 million. R&D expenses for 2021 are expected to be around 14% of sales. We expect SG&A to remain around 4% of sales for 2021. Our estimated 2021 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be around 15%.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2021 年第三季的預期。我們預計第三季總淨銷售額將在 52 億歐元至 54 億歐元之間。我們預計第三季安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 10 億歐元。預計第三季毛利率在51%至52%之間。第三季的預期研發費用約為 6.45 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用預計約 1.8 億美元。預計2021年的研發費用將佔銷售額的14%左右。我們預計 2021 年銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 將維持在銷售額的 4% 左右。我們估計 2021 年年化有效稅率預計在 15% 左右。

In Q2, ASML paid a final dividend of EUR 1.55 per ordinary share or EUR 639 million. Together with the interim dividend paid in 2020, this results in a total dividend for 2020 of EUR 2.75 per ordinary share. This is a 15% increase compared to the 2019 dividend. In Q2 2021, ASML purchased 3.6 million shares on the 2022 program for a total amount of around EUR 2.0 billion.

第二季度，ASML 支付了每股普通股 1.55 歐元或 6.39 億歐元的末期股息。加上 2020 年支付的中期股息，2020 年每股普通股的總股息為 2.75 歐元。與 2019 年的股息相比，這一數字增加了 15%。 2021 年第二季度，ASML 按 2022 年計畫購買了 360 萬股股票，總金額約 20 億歐元。

As part of ASML's financial policy to return excess cash to its shareholders through growing dividends and share buybacks, ASML announced a new share buyback program, which will start on July 22, 2021 and is to be executed by the 31st of December 2023. As part of this program, ASML intends to repurchase shares up to an amount of EUR 9 billion, of which we expect a total of up to 0.45 million shares will be used to cover employee share plans.

作為 ASML 透過增加股利和股票回購向股東返還多餘現金的財務政策的一部分，ASML 宣布了一項新的股票回購計劃，該計劃將於 2021 年 7 月 22 日開始，並於 2023 年 12 月 31 日之前執行。作為該計劃的一部分，ASML 打算回購價值高達 90 億歐元的股票，其中我們預計總計將有 45 萬股用於員工持股計畫。

ASML intends to cancel the remainder of the shares repurchased. The new program will replace the previous EUR 6 billion share buyback program 2020 through 2022, under which ASML has repurchased approximately 11.7 million shares for an approximate amount of EUR 5.2 billion and which will not be completed for the full amount in light of the new share buyback program.

ASML 有意取消剩餘的股份回購。新計劃將取代先前2020年至2022年60億歐元的股票回購計劃，根據該計劃，ASML已回購了約1,170萬股股票，金額約為52億歐元，但根據新的股票回購計劃，該計劃將無法全部完成。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, we had a good quarter in both sales and profitability. We're seeing continued strong demand from our customers across all market segments, from both advanced and mature nodes, driving demand across our entire product portfolio.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的，本季我們的銷售額和獲利能力都表現良好。我們看到來自各個細分市場的客戶（包括先進和成熟節點）的需求持續強勁，從而推動了我們整個產品組合的需求。

Compared to last quarter, where we expected an annual sales growth rate towards 30%, we now expect revenue to be at around 35% this year. The higher sales growth comes from our ability to increase output in our factories and in the supply chain as we work to meet the strong customer demand.

與上一季相比，我們預計年銷售額成長率為 30%，而現在我們預計今年的營收將達到 35% 左右。更高的銷售成長來自於我們努力滿足強勁的客戶需求，提高工廠和供應鏈產量的能力。

Looking at the different market segments and changes from last quarter, we now expect stronger growth rates across all markets. In Logic, global demand continues to be strong across a broad application space in both advanced and mature nodes. And compared to last quarter, where we expected 2021 Logic revenue to be up 30% year-on-year, we now expect Logic to be up around 35% this year.

從不同細分市場和與上一季相比的變化來看，我們預期所有市場的成長率都將更加強勁。在邏輯領域，全球對先進和成熟節點的廣泛應用領域的需求持續強勁。與上一季相比，我們預計 2021 年 Logic 營收將年增 30%，現在我們預計今年 Logic 營收將成長約 35%。

In Memory, customers see tight supply/demand dynamics continuing into next year. And compared to last quarter, where we expected 2021 Memory revenue to be up 50% year-on-year, we now expect Memory revenue to be up around 60% this year.

在記憶方面，客戶認為緊張的供需動態將持續到明年。與上一季相比，我們預計 2021 年記憶體收入將年增 50%，現在我們預計今年記憶體收入將成長約 60%。

In our installed base business, for the second quarter in a row, our upgrade business has been stronger than guided. Customers are looking to upgrades to provide the fastest path to increase their wafer output capability. Compared to last quarter, where we expect the 2021 installed base revenue to be up 10% year-on-year, we now expect installed base revenue to be up around 15% this year.

在我們的已安裝基礎業務中，連續第二個季度，我們的升級業務表現強於預期。客戶正在尋求升級，以提供最快的途徑來提高他們的晶圓輸出能力。與上一季相比，我們預計 2021 年安裝基數營收將年增 10%，現在我們預計今年安裝基數營收將成長 15% 左右。

As we continue to strengthen our outlook on the year, the majority of the increase is coming from our DPV business. We have increased our planned factory output to meet customer growing demand and now expect higher growth in DPV in 2021. While keeping in mind the minimum stocking levels the increased output was partly due to the usage of service inventory at ASML and its suppliers.

隨著我們繼續加強對今年的展望，大部分成長來自我們的 DPV 業務。我們已經增加了工廠計劃產量，以滿足客戶不斷增長的需求，目前預計 2021 年 DPV 產量將實現更高的成長。在考慮最低庫存水準的同時，產量的增加部分歸因於 ASML 及其供應商的服務庫存的使用。

On EUV, we continue to push our manufacturing capability and have been able to realize a limited increase in output. We now expect EUV revenue growth of around 35% year-on-year, an increase from the 30% as we communicated last quarter. And we also shipped our first 3600D system in Q2, which will deliver a 15% to 20% higher productivity capability than our 3400C systems. The vast majority of the EUV systems in the second half will be 3600D systems contributing to increased weighted capacity in our customers' fabs.

在 EUV 方面，我們不斷提升製造能力，並已實現產量的有限成長。我們現在預計 EUV 營收將年增約 35%，高於上個季度預測的 30%。我們也在第二季交付了第一台 3600D 系統，其生產能力將比我們的 3400C 系統高出 15% 至 20%。下半年絕大多數 EUV 系統將是 3600D 系統，這將有利於提高我們客戶晶圓廠的加權產能。

To summarize this year, taking into account the planned system output improvements in the second half, we now expect sales growth of about 35% and a gross margin between 51% and 52% for the full year.

總結今年，考慮到下半年計畫的系統輸出改進，我們現在預計全年銷售額將成長約 35%，毛利率在 51% 至 52% 之間。

Looking beyond 2021, if you read the papers, you can see the 3 trends we highlighted in the last quarter continue to drive semiconductor and equipment demand. Chip shortages are partly due to decisions made during the global pandemic, first reported in the automotive industry, have since moved to other industries. This is causing a more cyclical or catch-up driven demand that we expect will likely continue into next year.

展望 2021 年以後，如果您閱讀論文，您會發現我們在上個季度強調的 3 個趨勢將繼續推動半導體和設備需求。晶片短缺部分是由於全球疫情期間做出的決定造成的，最早報導出現在汽車行業，後來蔓延到其他行業。這導致了更具週期性或追趕性的需求，我們預計這種需求可能會持續到明年。

But more importantly, secular growth from the digital transformation that's underway as the world becomes more connected, not only machine to people or people to machine, but also machine to machine. The expanding application space with secular drivers such as 5G, AI, high-performance and distributed computing is fueling a rapidly growing demand for semiconductors. And this demand is not only for leading-edge devices required to power these high-performance application, but this also requires a wide array of applications using other technology to support the build-out of the digital infrastructure.

但更重要的是，隨著世界變得更加互聯互通，數位轉型將帶來長期成長，不僅是機器與人或人與機器之間的聯繫，還有機器與機器之間的聯繫。 隨著 5G、AI、高效能和分散式運算等長期驅動因素的不斷擴大，應用空間正在推動半導體需求的快速成長。這種需求不僅在於為這些高效能應用提供動力所需的尖端設備，而且還需要使用其他技術的廣泛應用來支援數位基礎設施的建置。

Computing is also rapidly moving to the edge, where sensing technologies require connected compute technologies that are often mature in nature. Lastly, the push for technological sovereignty, as countries and regions are planning to establish or expand regional semiconductor manufacturing capabilities in an attempt to manage geographical semiconductor manufacturing risks. This will likely create some level of inefficiency in the semiconductor supply chain and, thus, additional equipment demand. Although we believe that this potential inefficiency will be managed rationally by a few very large manufacturers, which are crucial in building this additional infrastructure.

運算也正在迅速向邊緣發展，其中感測技術需要通常已經成熟的互聯運算技術。最後，推動技術主權，各國和各地區正計劃建立或擴大區域半導體製造能力，試圖管理地理半導體製造風險。這可能會在一定程度上造成半導體供應鏈的效率低下，從而增加設備需求。儘管我們相信這種潛在的低效率將由少數非常大的製造商合理管理，但它們對於建造這些額外的基礎設施至關重要。

We expect these trends to continue for the next several years, which fuels long-term demand for both Logic and Memory and drives demand for our entire product portfolio.

我們預計這些趨勢將在未來幾年持續下去，這將刺激對邏輯和記憶體的長期需求，並推動對我們整個產品組合的需求。

For EUV, future demand growth is primarily driven by Logic, with increasing EUV late accounts and stronger wafer demand on advanced nodes. We're also seeing growing demand for EUV and Memory as customers are ramping EUV and volume production with plans to implement EUV on future nodes across 3 DRAM customers. With the strong order intake this quarter, this brings our backlog -- our total backlog to EUR 17.5 billion, which includes EUV of EUR 10.9 billion, which is a reflection of the very healthy market environment we're in today. And it covers approximately 80% of the planned EUV output for 2022.

對於 EUV 而言，未來的需求成長主要由邏輯驅動，EUV 後期帳戶不斷增加，先進節點的晶圓需求也更加強勁。我們也看到對 EUV 和記憶體的需求不斷增長，因為客戶正在增加 EUV 和大量生產，並計劃在 3 個 DRAM 客戶的未來節點上實施 EUV。由於本季訂單量強勁，我們的積壓訂單總額達到 175 億歐元，其中包括 109 億歐元的 EUV，這反映了我們目前所處的非常健康的市場環境。其涵蓋了 2022 年 EUV 產量計劃的約 80%。

For future DPV demand, it is driven by the growing wafer demand in both Memory and Logic. We see both advanced and mature nodes increasing over time. Immersion is required for the more advanced nodes in Memory and Logic, with dry technology required for both advanced and mature technology. We see the DPV demand certainly for dry products being stronger for longer.

對於未來的 DPV 需求，它受到記憶體和邏輯領域晶圓需求成長的推動。我們看到先進節點和成熟節點都在隨著時間的推移而增加。記憶體和邏輯中更先進的節點需要浸入技術，而先進和成熟的技術都需要乾式技術。我們看到 DPV 對乾貨產品的需求肯定會持續更長時間地保持強勁。

In order to meet our customers' increasing long-term demand, we're working hard with our supply chain to increase our capacity. We continue to drive down manufacturing cycle times, both in our factory and in our supply chain. And jointly with our suppliers, we are looking across the supply chain to determine whether we need to add people, equipment or buildings to increase our output capability for EUV as well as DPV. Each of these activities have different time horizons to materialize.

為了滿足客戶日益增長的長期需求，我們正在努力與供應鏈合作以提高產能。我們不斷縮短工廠和供應鏈的製造週期。我們正與供應商一起審視整個供應鏈，以確定是否需要增加人員、設備或建築物，以提高 EUV 和 DPV 的產出能力。每項活動的實現都需要不同的時間範圍。

For DPV, in response to the market demand, we will need to increase our capacity in 2022 and beyond, and have therefore started to execute plans to significantly increase our capacity primarily with dry systems. This is needed since we will not be able next year to again use the surplus inventories of DPV modules and parts to fuel our sales as we will do in 2021.

對於DPV，為了滿足市場需求，我們需要在2022年及以後增加產能，因此已開始執行主要透過乾式系統大幅增加產能的計畫。這是必要的，因為明年我們將無法像 2021 年那樣再次使用 DPV 模組和零件的剩餘庫存來推動我們的銷售。

It's a bit too early to provide specific details on our capacity plans for the coming years as we have not yet confirmed the targeted capacity increases with our key suppliers. But we will provide an update as soon as we have finalized these plans.

現在提供未來幾年產能計畫的具體細節還為時過早，因為我們尚未與主要供應商確認目標產能成長。但一旦我們最終確定這些計劃，我們將立即提供最新消息。

For EUV, we're planning our supply chain for a capacity of around 55 systems in 2022 and are looking to further increase the capacity to over 60 EUV systems in 2023. In addition to increasing our system capacity, we're also driving our product road map to deliver higher productivity systems to increase effective wafer capacity. All of our planned shipments in 2022 will be the higher productivity 3600D systems.

對於 EUV，我們計劃在 2022 年將供應鏈的容量提升至約 55 個系統，並希望在 2023 年將容量進一步提升至 60 個以上 EUV 系統。除了提高系統容量外，我們還在推動產品路線圖，以提供生產率更高的系統，從而提高有效的晶圓容量。我們計劃在 2022 年出貨的所有產品均為生產力較高的 3600D 系統。

In summary, the chip demand is very strong, and we're working to maximize output to meet customer demand. The secular growth trends as part of the digital transformation to a more connected world is fueling future demand across all market segments at both the advanced and the mature nodes, which only increases our confidence in our long-term growth outlook. We plan to provide you an update on our future scenarios at our Investor Day on September 29, so please book the date. With that, we would be happy to take your questions.

綜上所述，晶片需求非常強勁，我們正在努力最大限度地提高產量以滿足客戶的需求。作為數位轉型的一部分，朝著更互聯的世界邁進，長期成長趨勢正在推動先進和成熟節點所有細分市場的未來需求，這只會增強我們對長期成長前景的信心。我們計劃在 9 月 29 日的投資者日向您提供我們未來情景的最新情況，因此請預約日期。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

All right. Thank you, Peter and Roger. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. Beforehand, I would like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to 1 question with 1 short follow-up, if necessary. This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible. Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

好的。謝謝你，彼得和羅傑。操作員將立即指導您在問答環節的協議。在此之前，我希望您只問一個問題，如有必要，請進行 1 個簡短的後續提問。這將使我們能夠聯繫到盡可能多的呼叫者。接線員，請問您最後的指示和第一個問題好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Francois bouvignies of UBS.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Francois bouvignies。

Maybe the first one, if I may, is on the -- if we look at your upside for dry EUV, how would you slice this between what ties up to your new leading-edge Logic and Memory capacity and what relates to new trailing edge, Logic and analog? Would be interesting to have the color of the two.

如果可以的話，第一個問題是——如果我們看一下乾式 EUV 的優勢，您會如何劃分與新的前沿邏輯和內存容量相關的部分以及與新的後緣邏輯和模擬相關的部分？擁有這兩種顏色會很有趣。

And the second question I had, maybe, Peter, when we look at the market dynamic, I mean there is obviously a strong demand and, as a consequence, a significant shortage. And on top of that, you have some local capacity concern that you talked about in your video. So what I'm trying to understand is with these 2 factors that probably one concern is kind of inflation of orders, creating some disconnect between the supply and the demand i.e., the shortage and local domestic capacity, so how do you assess this risk? How do you manage this risk of overcapacity when you think about adding capacity in DPV and EUV?

我的第二個問題是，彼得，當我們觀察市場動態時，顯然存在著強勁的需求，因此也存在著嚴重的短缺。除此之外，您還在影片中談到了一些本地容量問題。所以我想了解的是，對於這兩個因素，可能一個問題是訂單膨脹，造成供需之間的脫節，即短缺和國內產能，那麼您如何評估這種風險？當您考慮增加 DPV 和 EUV 產能時，如何管理產能過剩的風險？

Very good questions. Let me first answer the upside on the dry DPV. Whether it's driven by leading edge or, let's say, trailing or mature, I think on the leading edge, we have a reasonably good view as to what our customers need in terms of new fabs built, ramp-up plans. And of course, we know the layer stacks. We know the layer composition in terms of dry immersion EUV.

非常好的問題。讓我先回答一下乾式 DPV 的優點。無論它是由前沿技術驅動，還是由落後技術或成熟技術驅動，我認為在前沿技術方面，我們對客戶在新建晶圓廠和產能提升計劃方面的需求有著相當好的看法。當然，我們知道層堆疊。我們知道乾浸式 EUV 的層組成。

So yes, that's growing, but that's more plannable, I would say. That's -- we have more insights. And it was really surprised us is the very strong demand from, let's say, the non-leading-edge customers, which is across the globe. It's in Europe, it's in the U.S., it's in Asia. And it has to do with microcontrollers, power, analog, image sensors. It's all over the place.

是的，這確實在增長，但我想說，這更具可規劃性。那是——我們有更多的見解。真正令我們感到驚訝的是，來自全球非前沿客戶的需求非常強勁。它在歐洲，它在美國，它在亞洲。它與微控制器、電源、類比、影像感測器有關。到處都是。

And I think it's also explainable and it's a bit of a lead-in into your next question that if you see where this is going and where the shortages are in automotive and other industrial areas. Even from time to time, we get questions out of our own supply chain, whether we can help sourcing some of these components, which basically, normally, we can because we have some good contacts with some semiconductor manufacturers. So we actually see this happening everywhere.

我認為這也是可以解釋的，這可以引出你的下一個問題：你是否了解這種情況將如何發展，以及汽車和其他工業領域的短缺問題。有時，我們自己的供應鏈也會詢問我們是否可以幫助採購其中一些組件，通常我們可以，因為我們與一些半導體製造商有良好的聯繫。所以我們實際上看到這種情況隨處可見。

You see lead times in household appliances going up, simply because analog, power, sensors, microcontrollers in household appliances are in shortage. So it's basically, it's the rollout of the -- finally what we are seeing as the Internet of Things and 5G, we have the big pipe. So you can actually use the big pipe to actually transfer that data and transport the data. And that's what we're seeing now.

您會看到家用電器的交貨時間增加，這僅僅是因為家用電器中的類比、電源、感測器、微控制器短缺。所以基本上，這就是我們最終看到的物聯網和 5G 的推出，我們擁有了大管道。因此您實際上可以使用大管道來傳輸資料。這就是我們現在所看到的。

So it's -- basically, the big surprise was really in what we would call the mature or the specialty semiconductors, yes, which is just a reflection of the digital transition that we're right in the middle.

所以，基本上，最大的驚喜確實在於我們所謂的成熟或專業半導體，是的，這只是我們正處於數位轉型過程中的一個反映。

So leading into an answer to your second question, so how do we then assess the risk of this capacity increase that we're planning for? It's basically how do we assess the risk that this rollout of this digitization, the digital infrastructure, is a hoax? It's not happening. It's not there, or it's happening at a speed that we completely misjudged.

因此，回答你的第二個問題，那麼我們如何評估我們計劃的容量增加的風險？基本上，我們如何評估推出數位化、數位基礎設施是騙局的風險？這並沒有發生。它不存在，或者它發生的速度是我們完全誤判的。

I think given where the shortages are and the time it will take to get rid of those shortages, I think the underlying growth trend, there is a high level of reality in there, in our mind. So we will build that capacity. And I have to add, I think structurally, over the last 15 years, I think we've underestimated the growth of the industry. And I can only -- this may -- might be anecdotal but in 2007, we started to give you, for the first time, a scenario target based on a certain market assumption 5 years out. We got there 1 year early.

我認為，考慮到短缺的現狀以及消除這些短缺所需的時間，我認為潛在的成長趨勢在我們心中具有很高的現實性。因此我們將建立這種能力。我必須補充一點，從結構上來說，我認為在過去的 15 年裡，我們低估了這個行業的成長。我只能——這可能——可能是軼事，但在 2007 年，我們首次開始根據 5 年後的特定市場假設為您提供情境目標。我們提前一年到達那裡。

The second time we did that, we got that 2 years early. And the third time we did it, that was the one that we're in today. And we are guiding about EUR 18.9 billion, close to EUR 19 billion, which is, effectively was our mid-market scenario that we gave you for 2025. We again are years early. So we structurally underestimated the growth in this industry. I'm not concerned in building that capacity. We will use it.

我們第二次這樣做時，提前了兩年就達成了目標。我們第三次這樣做了，這就是我們今天所處的階段。我們預計其規模約為 189 億歐元，接近 190 億歐元，這實際上是我們給出的 2025 年中型市場情景。我們又提早了幾年。因此，我們從結構上低估了這個產業的成長。我並不關心建立這種能力。我們會使用它。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬‧夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

So you talked about the catch-up effect is stretching into 2022. I was curious on the DUV side, your orders remain really strong. So just curious with the capacity increases you're putting in place, is that catch up with your order book, is that more of a first half 2022 dynamic? Or do you see that as continuing into the second half of 2022?

所以您說追趕效應會延續到 2022 年。我很好奇，在 DUV 方面，你們的訂單仍然很強勁。所以我很好奇，你們正在實施的產能增加，是否能趕上你們的訂單量，這是否更像是 2022 年上半年的動態？還是您認為這種情況會持續到 2022 年下半年？

Yes. That's a good question. It depends on the speed with which we can get the -- well, it depends on the confirmation we can get from our supply chain, because we did ask them and especially for the mature products and dry products to get a significant increase, which is double-digit increase in our capacity or their capacity, I should say. And that could then easily extend into the second half of next year.

是的。這是個好問題。這取決於我們獲得的速度 - 嗯，這取決於我們可以從供應鏈中獲得的確認，因為我們確實要求他們，特別是成熟產品和乾燥產品獲得顯著的增長，我應該說這是我們的產能或他們的產能的兩位數增長。而且這種情況很容易延續到明年下半年。

Like I said earlier, I think this disruption of the supply chain that happened during the global pandemic, I think it's like a traffic jam. You have a traffic jam in 15 minutes, takes an hour to get it resolved. It's basically what's happening also in the industry. It's a global supply chain with many, many key players there.

就像我之前說的，我認為全球大流行期間發生的供應鏈中斷就像交通堵塞一樣。 15 分鐘後就會出現交通堵塞，需要一個小時才能解決。這基本上也是該行業正在發生的事情。這是一個全球供應鏈，其中有許多關鍵參與者。

When you start to put locks into this global efficient supply chain effectively and you take out those locks, not at all at the same time, and inventories are depleted before everything starts going again, it takes time. And that's what we see. We actually see that in the supply chain and customers of our customers and customers of the customers' customers, they're basically now reassessing their planning. And they're finding out there are shortages all over the place, whereby the key players in that ecosystem are not fully aligned yet on making this seamless again. And that will take time.

當你開始有效地將鎖放入這個全球高效的供應鏈中，並同時取出這些鎖時，在一切重新開始之前，庫存就會耗盡，這需要時間。這就是我們所看到的。我們實際上看到，在供應鏈中、在我們的客戶的客戶中以及在客戶的客戶的客戶中，他們現在基本上正在重新評估他們的計劃。他們發現到處都存在短缺，生態系統中的關鍵參與者尚未完全協調一致，無法再次實現無縫銜接。而這需要時間。

So this will lead into 2022 easily. And I think the first half, if our supply chain, and not only our supply chain, also the supply chain of our peers can follow then, yes, maybe mid next year, we'll see some relief and then you see a tapering off of the order intake. But otherwise, I think we will continue into the second half of next year.

因此這將輕鬆進入 2022 年。我認為，如果我們的供應鏈（不僅是我們的供應鏈，還有我們同行的供應鏈）能夠跟進，那麼，也許明年年中，我們會看到一些緩解，然後你會看到訂單量逐漸減少。但除此之外，我認為我們將繼續進入明年下半年。

Got it. That's helpful. And then on the increased EUV revenue outlook for this year, from a revenue perspective, it sounds like you're doing some things to maybe improve the manufacturing or your capabilities and maybe get another tool out the door. But just curious, in addition to that, is that reflective of maybe any sort of expectations around mix, being a little bit stronger to the 3600D or configurations being a little bit richer than expected when we entered this year?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，關於今年 EUV 收入成長的前景，從收入角度來看，聽起來您正在做一些事情來改善製造或能力，也許推出另一種工具。但只是好奇，除此之外，這是否反映了對混合的任何期望，比 3600D 更強大一點，或者配置比我們今年進入時的預期更豐富一點？

Yes. I think you got it, Joe. It's a combination of those things. I think what you saw over the quarters -- during the quarter is that indeed, the ASP turned out to be stronger than what you saw last year. And I think that was the result, as you say, of the option that customers asked for. So there were richer configurations than originally envisaged. So there you saw on the 3400C, you saw an ASP of 145. You see this quarter even a bit higher, but there's some 3600D in there albeit very, very small. So that's one element.

是的。我想你明白了，喬。它是這些事物的結合。我認為您在本季看到的情況是，平均銷售價格確實比去年同期強勁。正如您所說，我認為這是客戶要求的選項的結果。因此配置比最初設想的更加豐富。因此，您在 3400C 上看到的是，其平均售價為 145。您會看到本季的價格甚至更高一些，但是其中也有一些 3600D，儘管規模非常小。這是一個要素。

And the second element indeed is that we're doing our utmost to further decrease cycle time as a result of that crank out 1 or 2 or more. So that's the 2 reason behind the increase to 35% uptick in comparison to last year, rather than the 30%.

第二個因素確實是，我們正在盡最大努力進一步縮短生產 1 個、2 個或更多產品的週期時間。這就是與去年相比增幅從 30% 增至 35% 的第二個原因。

Our next question comes from the line of Sandeep Deshpande of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

Peter, I'm just trying to understand, clearly, I mean there is a need for capacity both in DUV as well as EUV. I mean, are you -- I mean you have laid out how much capacity you intend to outlay in EUV. Do you intend to outlay this EUV capacity additions over the next few years at the Capital Markets Day or at this point?

彼得，我只是想清楚地理解，我的意思是 DUV 和 EUV 都需要產能。我的意思是，您已經規劃出您打算在 EUV 上投入多少產能。您是否打算在資本市場日或此時在未來幾年內支出這些 EUV 產能的增加？

And my second question is on the margin. Clearly, I mean, the more DUV you ship, it helps your overall gross margin as such, really, and that has helped this year as well.

我的第二個問題與邊緣有關。顯然，我的意思是，您出貨的 DUV 越多，它實際上就越有助於提高您的整體毛利率，而今年這也起到了幫助作用。

I mean do you see that trend, that shift because of this higher DUV and the sensors and all these other older tools are likely to change your midterm view on the gross margin because of the higher DUV shipments?

我的意思是，您是否看到了這種趨勢，由於更高的 DUV 和感測器以及所有其他舊工具而發生的轉變可能會因為更高的 DUV 出貨量而改變您對毛利率的中期看法？

Well, I think the second question, Roger will answer. On the DPV capacity, yes, I think it is our intention. If we have -- if we feel we're comfortable that giving you that number because we get all the confirmations in from the supply chain, I think we would definitely give you more insight into our DPV capacity on specifically dry, perhaps somewhat on immersion and on, I think, more specific on EUV. We will definitely do that by the end of this quarter.

嗯，我想第二個問題，羅傑會回答。關於DPV容量，是的，我認為這是我們的意圖。如果我們 - 如果我們覺得向您提供該數字很舒服，因為我們從供應鏈中獲得了所有確認，我想我們肯定會向您提供更多關於我們的 DPV 產能的信息，特別是乾法，或許是浸沒式，以及我認為更具體地關於 EUV 的產能。我們一定會在本季末完成這一目標。

But we need some -- so for our key suppliers, we want to have that firm commitment. And we're going to not only get a firm commitment from an e-mail from the CEO, but I think we want to get that confirmed by the people who are actually building that capacity in the customer. So it's going to be quite an in-depth audit that you could say, because we will, based on that capacity, if the demand is there, we'll accept orders, and we don't want to disappoint our customers.

但我們需要一些——因此對於我們的主要供應商，我們希望得到堅定的承諾。我們不僅會從執行長的電子郵件中獲得堅定的承諾，而且我認為我們還希望得到實際在客戶中建立這種能力的人員的確認。因此可以說這將是一次相當深入的審計，因為我們將根據該產能，如果有需求，我們就會接受訂單，我們不想讓客戶失望。

So it's a process that's been ongoing for the last couple of months. But I think it's definitely our intention to give you all the information that we have at that time. And I hope and I expect to be honest that we will be able to do that to give you that number.

所以這是一個過去幾個月一直在進行的過程。但我認為我們肯定是想向你們提供我們當時掌握的所有資訊。我希望並且誠實地期望我們能夠做到這一點並向您提供這個數字。

Yes. Sandeep, on the margin side, as you know, and particularly with the introduction of the D model, you do see that the deltas between the different products in terms of gross margin becomes smaller. And therefore, the effect that you were talking about becomes smaller.

是的。 Sandeep，就利潤率方面而言，如您所知，特別是隨著 D 模型的引入，您確實會看到不同產品之間的毛利率差異變小了。因此，您所說的效果就變小了。

You also know that within DPV, there are differences between the different products in terms of gross margin. As we said on calls before, what is particularly relevant to look at is immersion, because the immersion is still from a gross margin perspective, a good product for us. And that's the one to watch. And if you, for instance, look at the last quarter, last quarter, you saw that 47% of our system sales was immersion. This year, you -- or this quarter, you see that, that's gone down to 34%, which is more realistic based, I would say, also for the quarters to come.

您也知道，在 DPV 內部，不同產品的毛利率有差異。正如我們之前在電話會議上所說的那樣，特別值得關注的是沉浸感，因為從毛利率的角度來看，沉浸感對我們來說仍然是一款好產品。這才是值得關注的。例如，如果你看一下上個季度，你會發現我們系統銷售額的 47% 是沉浸式的。今年，或者說本季，你會看到，這一比例下降到了 34%，我想說，這對於未來幾季來說也是更現實的。

And of course, that had an impact why the gross margin in Q1 was still very, very strong and why the gross margin in Q2 expectedly was a little bit lower. But I think that's a reset that is important. Immersion percentage for the quarters to come, more or less, mirrors what we had in Q2. And as a result of that, you build up towards the 51% to 52% that we've indicated for, for Q3.

當然，這也解釋了為什麼第一季的毛利率仍然非常高，而第二季的毛利率預計會略低。但我認為這是一個重要的重置。未來幾季的沉浸度百分比或多或少與我們第二季的水平相同。因此，我們將在第三季達到我們預測的 51% 至 52% 的目標。

And on the dry margins, because we were all going to ship more dry. Dry margins have generally been somewhat lower than the immersion margins because there's also more competition there, and there's a cost drive in the mature market, which is also different in the advanced market.

在乾燥的邊緣，因為我們都打算運送更多的乾燥貨物。乾法利潤率通常略低於浸入式利潤率，因為那裡的競爭也更激烈，而且成熟市場存在成本驅動，這與先進市場的情況也有所不同。

So yes, that's -- these are lower-priced tools as you use as a KrF tool. That's a single digit to a very low double-digit number, but it depends on the configuration with a different margin profile, which is lower than our immersion margins.

是的，這些都是價格較低的工具，就像您使用的 KrF 工具一樣。這是一個個位數到非常低的兩位數，但它取決於具有不同裕度輪廓的配置，該配置低於我們的浸入裕度。

Our next question comes from the line of Dominik Olszewski of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dominik Olszewski。

The first one I wanted to discuss was the -- on the topic of silicon solvency, as you mentioned, I'm curious in your conversations with policymakers, do you consider there to be any prospects for the U.S. to allow shipments of EUV to China at the point when you're successfully rolling out High-NA tools for research purposes in 2024? Is that the technological and time buffer that you think domestic China gets access to these EUV tools?

我想討論的第一個問題是——關於矽片償付能力的話題，正如您所提到的，我很好奇您與政策制定者的對話，您是否認為當您在 2024 年成功推出用於研究目的的高 NA 工具時，美國是否有可能允許 EUV 運往中國？您認為這是中國國內獲得這些 EUV 工具的技術和時間緩衝嗎？

And then the second question is specifically just on immersion. Are you seeing momentum, or anticipating momentum to get market share gains further in immersion tools, specifically maybe to your Logic customer base?

第二個問題具體是關於沉浸感。您是否看到了發展勢頭，或者預期將進一步擴大沉浸式工具的市場份額，特別是針對您的 Logic 客戶群？

Yes. I think on immersion market share gains, I think our market share still is already pretty high. Let's leave it at that. And EUV, I think, yes, EUV, too, is high. I mean that's a subject that we've discussed many, many times during these calls. I mean, EUV is under export control according to the Boston agreement, there's a multilateral agreement between 42 countries. And that requires an exports control license from the government of the exporting country, which, in this case, is the Netherlands. I think that's still under review.

是的。我認為就沉浸式市場佔有率的成長而言，我們的市佔率已經相當高了。我們就到此為止吧。而且 EUV，我認為，是的，EUV 也很高。我的意思是，這是我們在通話中討論過很多次的一個主題。我的意思是，根據《波士頓協議》，EUV 受到出口管制，這是 42 個國家之間的多邊協議。這需要出口國政府核發的出口管制許可證，在本例中，出口國是荷蘭。我認為這仍在審查中。

So -- and I think -- and this is not the place and the time to speculate on what that would mean going forward if we introduce High-NA. I think there's -- what we, of course, do know there are in-depth discussions between governments of different countries to see what they want to do. And I think it's not our role. I think we're in contact, but of course, it's up to the governments. And we just wait and see what happens.

所以 — — 我認為 — — 現在不是猜測如果我們引入 High-NA 會對未來產生什麼影響的地方和時間。我認為——我們當然知道，不同國家的政府之間正在進行深入的討論，以了解他們想要做什麼。我認為這不是我們的職責。我認為我們正在聯繫，但當然這取決於政府。我們只是等著看會發生什麼。

Now I've said it before, the end demand of leading-edge semiconductor devices is probably not impacted from -- it will not be impacted by where we ship EUV tools. The end market will be determined by the value that's been created by those products and the ability and the willingness of the world to buy these products, which will drive the demand for high-end semiconductors, and that will drive the demand for EUV. And then we will ship EUV where EUV will -- where EUV machines will be made to make advanced semiconductors, whether it is in Korea or in the U.S. or in Europe or whatever, yes, we're going to ship those tools too.

我之前說過，尖端半導體裝置的最終需求可能不會受到影響——它不會受到我們運送 EUV 工具地點的影響。終端市場將取決於這些產品所創造的價值以及世界購買這些產品的能力和意願，這將推動對高端半導體的需求，進而推動對 EUV 的需求。然後，我們會將 EUV 運送到需要製造 EUV 機器來製造先進半導體的地方，無論是在韓國、美國、歐洲還是其他地方，是的，我們也將運送這些工具。

Our next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc of SocGen.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的亞歷山大‧彼得 (Aleksander Peterc)。

The first one will be just on the -- on your speed of the increase of capacity. Are your comments really pertaining pretty much to 2022? Or can you put anything in place in that? I'd just like to understand if we're basically maxed out on what you can do in 2021.

第一個問題是關於──容量增加的速度。您的評論真的與 2022 年有很大關係嗎？或者你能在其中放置任何東西嗎？我只是想知道我們在 2021 年所能做的事情是否已經達到極限了。

And the second follow-up would be just on the phasing of 72 option revenue. It seems that you imply with your guidance that Q4 will be down year-on-year quarter-on-quarter. I just want to understand if that's due to the pull-in, in that area that you saw in the first and second quarter?

第二個後續行動是關於 72 項選擇權收入的分階段實施。您的指導似乎暗示第四季的業績將同比或環比下降。我只是想知道這是否是由於您在第一季和第二季看到的該區域的拉動所致？

Yes. The increase of capacity when, I think, there are 3 ways in which you can increase capacity. And the first is basically it's 6 to 9 months. It's just being more efficient, squeezing everything out of your production process is basically what we call the reduction of cycle time. That's what you can do short term. That's what we do today.

是的。當容量增加時，我認為有三種方法可以增加容量。第一個基本上是6到9個月。這只是提高了效率，從生產過程中壓縮所有部分基本上就是我們所說的縮短週期時間。這就是你短期內可以做的事情。這就是我們今天所做的。

And I think the second one is you just use the same square meters, but you hire people, you buy machines, which is especially true for our supply chain, which generally has a lead time of 12 to 18 months if you can get the machines, which, by the way, I made a comment earlier, we also see that in the machine industry also, there's going to be shortage because of also chip shortages. But that's 12 to 18 months. That brings us into 2022. And it could even be towards the second half of 2022.

我認為第二個是你只是使用相同的平方米，但你僱用人員，購買機器，這對於我們的供應鏈尤其如此，如果你能得到機器，通常交貨時間為 12 到 18 個月，順便說一句，我之前說過，我們也看到在機器行業，由於晶片短缺也會出現短缺。但那需要 12 到 18 個月。這將使我們進入 2022 年。甚至可能是 2022 年下半年。

And that's what we're seeing now in the supply chain. I think everybody works on their cycle time reduction, so we are maxed out. And then if you want to add capacity, people and machines.

這就是我們現在在供應鏈中看到的情況。我認為每個人都在努力縮短週期時間，所以我們已經盡了最大努力。然後，如果您想增加容量、人員和機器。

And then the third one is, well, you cannot fit it in this square inches or square meters or square footage, then you need to build, which has a retail of 2 to 3 years, which will bring you to 2023, '24. And I think -- so the capacity increase that we're focusing on is within the same square meters, machines, people, cycle time reduction. And that, I think, we're maxed out for this year because it's only going to be cycle time reduction. It has to be more people, more machines, same square meters next year, and that's 2022.

然後第三個是，嗯，你不能把它放在平方英寸或平方米或平方英尺的範圍內，那麼你需要建造，它的零售期為 2 到 3 年，這將帶你到 2023 年、2024 年。我認為－我們關注的產能增加是在相同的平方公尺、機器、人員和週期時間減少的範圍內。我認為，我們今年已經達到了極限，因為這只是周期時間的減少。明年，也就是 2022 年，就需要更多的人、更多的機器，但面積不變。

Aleksander, on your second question and your line broke up a little bit, but I understood your question to be the distribution of the installed base revenue over the first half and the second half of the year. And that is a correct observation. So in the first half, we had EUR 2.3 billion revenue for installed base. And with the indication of 50% growth over last year, you would get to EUR 1.9 billion for the second half of the year.

亞歷山大，關於你的第二個問題，你的思路有點斷斷續續，但我理解你的問題是關於上半年和下半年安裝基礎收入的分配。這是一個正確的觀察。因此，上半年我們的安裝基礎收入為 23 億歐元。根據去年同期 50% 的成長預測，今年下半年的營收將達到 19 億歐元。

And you're quite right. As we also indicated, there has been quite some pull in of the -- particularly the software-related upgrades by customers who want a relatively easy way to increase capacity without having to give us too much machine time. So both in Q1 and Q2, we actually got more of these software related upgrades than we anticipated. And yes, there was a bit of pull in there from the second half. So that's the correct observation.

你說得很對。正如我們所指出的，客戶對與軟體相關的升級有相當大的興趣，他們希望以相對簡單的方式增加容量，而不必花費我們太多的機器時間。因此，無論是在第一季還是在第二季度，我們獲得的軟體相關升級實際上都比我們預期的要多。是的，下半場確實有一點拉力。這是正確的觀察。

Our next question comes from the line of Stephane Houri of ODDO BHF.

我們的下一個問題來自 ODDO BHF 的 Stephane Houri。

I have a question back on margins. And maybe if you could update us on the evolution of the gross margin at EUV services. And the question linked to that, so the follow-up would be, what is, in your view, your potential for gross margin improvement, if you put together the improvement of EUV services margins, but also the fact that now you're selling the 3600D, which carries, if I'm correct, the same kind of margins that the rest of the tools. Yes. That's basically my question.

我有一個關於利潤率的問題。也許您可以向我們介紹一下 EUV 服務毛利率的變化。與此相關的問題是，後續問題是，如果您將 EUV 服務利潤率的提高與現在銷售 3600D 的事實結合起來，您認為您的毛利率提高潛力有多大？如果我沒記錯的話，3600D 的利潤率與其他工具相同。是的。這基本上就是我的問題。

Okay. So in terms of EUV service gross margin, as you know, we broke even last year on that. This quarter, we guided to 25% gross margin on EUV service. And I think we've said that within about 4 years' time, we believe that we get that gross margin level to approximately corporate gross margin level. That's what the intent is, and that is primarily by driving down costs and by helping customers run the machines more efficiently such that more wafers get produced. And as a result of that, we get more wafers compensated therefore. So that's the model there.

好的。因此，就 EUV 服務毛利率而言，如您所知，我們去年實現了收支平衡。本季度，我們預計 EUV 服務的毛利率為 25%。我想我們已經說過，在大約 4 年的時間內，我們相信我們的毛利率水準將達到大約企業毛利率水準。這就是我們的目的，主要是為了降低成本並幫助客戶更有效率地運行機器，從而生產更多的晶圓。因此，我們得到了更多的晶圓補償。這就是那裡的模型。

And 25% from 0 in a couple of quarter's time, of course, is a big uptick. But I think that is the aggressive curve. So the first 25% is, of course, a big development. But then you will see that improvement gradually slow down.

當然，在幾個季度內從 0 成長 25% 是一個很大的成長。但我認為這是激進的曲線。因此，第一個 25% 當然是一個巨大的進步。但隨後你會看到這種改善逐漸減緩。

In terms of systems gross margin. On the D, the D tool gets us to the corporate gross margin. That's the way to look at it. So still below the DPV gross margin, but at the corporate gross margin. With the E tool, we hope to get the gross margin to the DPV level. And at that stage, we have EUV and DPV be at the same level. That's the intent. That's what we're looking at. And of course, the E will be introduced in a little under 2 years from -- or 2 years from now. And that's the one that should get us to a DPV type of gross margin levels.

就係統毛利率而言。在 D 上，D 工具讓我們了解企業毛利率。這就是看待這個問題的方式。因此仍低於 DPV 毛利率，但達到企業毛利率。借助E工具，我們希望將毛利率提高到DPV水準。在那個階段，我們的 EUV 和 DPV 處於同一水平。這就是目的。這就是我們所關注的。當然，E 將在不到兩年的時間內推出——或者說從現在起的兩年後。這應該能讓我們達到 DPV 類型的毛利率水準。

Our next question comes from the line of Rolf Bulk, New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Rolf Bulk。

You mentioned that around 1 billion of EUV tools are being purchased by DRAM manufacturers this year. And that is primarily for bit capacity for next year and beyond, because your lead times for EUV tools are still very long today.

您提到，今年 DRAM 製造商購買了約 10 億套 EUV 工具。這主要是為了明年及以後的位元容量，因為今天 EUV 工具的交付週期仍然很長。

My question is how should we think about the DRAM EUV business in the context of '22, '23. Do you see a risk of a pullback in DRAM lithography spending as cycle times for EUV tools come down and manufacturers maybe do not need to buy this capacity 1.5 to 2 years in advance anymore?

我的問題是，我們應該如何看待 22 年、23 年背景下的 DRAM EUV 業務。隨著 EUV 工具的周期縮短，製造商可能不再需要提前 1.5 到 2 年購買這種產能，您是否認為 DRAM 光刻支出有回落的風險？

Yes. I think the -- we won't be -- I think the exact number this year is probably 1.2 billion, so it's a bit higher. So of the -- and you are right. I mean, of the 1.2 billion of EUV in our 2021 Memory guidance or DRAM guidance, I mean you'll need to really look at a bit capacity additions from those machines not in 2021. It's going to be later.

是的。我認為——我們不會——我認為今年的具體數字可能是 12 億，所以這個數字會更高一些。所以——你是對的。我的意思是，在我們 2021 年記憶體指導或 DRAM 指導中的 12 億 EUV 中，我的意思是您需要真正關注這些機器的容量增加，而不是在 2021 年。這將是以後的事。

I think on 2022, 2023, when we look at the road maps, the customer road maps, yes, we will see as a higher number of deep -- of EUV shipments for DRAM, and it's driven basically by the capacity build-outs that they are planning. And yes, when cycle times go down, then also order lead times go down, but so it will have more -- as a more significant effect on when they place the orders, not so much when they need the tools because the tools are based on the fab planning. And as you know, these fab plans are sometimes years out. So we have 2, 3 years of planning visibility.

我認為在 2022 年、2023 年，當我們查看路線圖、客戶路線圖時，是的，我們將看到 DRAM 的 EUV 出貨量增加，這基本上是由他們正在計劃的產能建設所推動的。是的，當週期時間縮短時，訂單交付週期也會縮短，但這對客戶下訂單的時間有更顯著的影響，而不是客戶需要工具的時間，因為工具是基於晶圓廠規劃的。如你所知，這些晶圓廠計畫有時需要數年時間才能完成。因此我們有 2 至 3 年的規劃可見度。

So that will drive the, let's say, the build capacity, our build capacity and the potential sales and it will have an impact on the orders, on the deals, which will be probably coming in a bit later as you actually seen last quarter, I mean, there's a significant number of EUV tools that came in as PO, because there we have long lead times. And actually that stretches our order coverage in terms of our capacity that we have for next year to the point where 80% of our capacity is now ordered.

因此，這將推動建設能力、我們的建設能力和潛在銷售額，並將對訂單、交易產生影響，這些影響可能會稍後到來，正如您上個季度實際看到的那樣，我的意思是，有大量的 EUV 工具作為採購訂單進來，因為我們的交貨時間很長。實際上，就我們明年的產能而言，這擴大了我們的訂單覆蓋範圍，目前我們的產能已達到 80% 的訂單。

I mean that will have -- that will change going forward with lead times going down but not so much the sales. Sales will be driven by the RAM plans and the capacity plans of our customers. And those are pretty well known because of the big projection that take years.

我的意思是，這種情況會隨著交貨時間的縮短而改變，但銷售額不會有太大的變化。銷售將由客戶的 RAM 計劃和容量計劃推動。由於大型投影需要耗時數年，因此這些投影非常有名。

And those RAM plans are also based on layer count, all right? And that's very clear from the customers that indicate that the plan to increase the layer count of the OBV and DRAM manufacturing.

這些 RAM 計劃也是基於層數的，好嗎？從客戶那裡可以清楚地看出，他們計劃增加 OBV 和 DRAM 製造的層數。

And just to give you one more data point. So this year, you're looking at approximately 20% of the EUV revenue. So 20% of, let's say, the -- of the EUR 6 billion, EUR 1.2 billion, that's the number, I think it's fair to assume that the same percentage will apply to next year. So that gives you -- and as you know, we're at least expanding capacity for EUV for next year. So that gives you an indication that we do see continued growth in the EUV insertion into DRAM and with the commensurate growth in revenue from that.

再給你一個數據點。因此，今年您將獲得約 20% 的 EUV 收入。因此，假設 60 億歐元中的 20% 是 12 億歐元，這個數字是合理的，我認為可以合理地假設明年也將採用相同的百分比。所以這給你——正如你所知，我們至少會在明年擴大 EUV 的產能。因此，這表明我們確實看到 EUV 在 DRAM 中的應用持續成長，且收入也隨之成長。

So absolute numbers will grow, because like you said, next year, we'll have 55 units capacity, which we'll probably very likely will sell that. But it also means that from an absolute shipment number point of view, it will keep growing for both Logic and for DRAM.

因此絕對數字將會成長，因為就像你說的，明年我們的產能將達到 55 台，我們很可能會賣出這些產量。但這也意味著，從絕對出貨量的角度來看，邏輯和 DRAM 都會持續成長。

And our next question comes from the line of Robert Sanders at Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅伯特桑德斯。

I just had one, which is about EUV layer count from 3-nanometer to 2 nanometer. That 20 SMC will be introducing gate all around. Most observers seem to think there will be close to 0 pitch scaling from that transition as TSMC did from 20-nanometer to 14 when the FinFET was introduced. So I was just wondering if that's something you were anticipating in your plan.

我剛剛有一個，其 EUV 層數大約從 3 奈米到 2 奈米。那 20 個 SMC 將在四周引入大門。大多數觀察家似乎認為，從這一轉變開始，間距縮小將接近 0，就像台積電在推出 FinFET 時從 20 奈米縮小到 14 奈米一樣。所以我只是想知道這是否是您在計劃中所預料到的事情。

No. I don't -- we don't have that view. I think there is -- on the 3 nanometer node and the 2-nanometer node that we look at, the tools that we'll be using are different machines on those nodes. And also, there will be an introduction of double patterning EUV, which is basically helping the pitch scaling. So we have a different view.

不，我不這麼認為──我們沒有這種觀點。我認為——在我們所關注的 3 奈米節點和 2 奈米節點上，我們將使用的工具是這些節點上的不同機器。此外，還將推出雙重圖案化 EUV，基本上有助於間距縮放。所以我們有不同的看法。

And our view of the transition from FinFET to gate all around will be layer count agnostic. So that's going to be layered.

我們認為從 FinFET 到閘極的轉變與層數無關。所以這將是分層的。

Yes. On the pitch scaling, there will be an introduction of double patterning at that moment. But Roger is correct. I mean in terms of layers, it doesn't matter.

是的。在音高縮放方面，屆時將引入雙重模式。但羅傑是對的。我的意思是，就層次而言，這並不重要。

The next question comes from the line of Andrew Gardiner at Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯‧加德納 (Andrew Gardiner)。

I wanted to come back to the point you were making around DUV capacity. In particular, for this year, just to try and establish a baseline, can you give us a sense as to how much of the -- of this year's revenue is being driven by both the butter stocks sort of the drawdown of that inventory that you've got? If I'm doing my math right, based on your guidance, we're now talking about a low EUR 8 billion level of DUV revenue this year. So yes, how much of that is coming from the inventory?

我想回到您剛才提到的有關 DUV 容量的問題。特別是對於今年，只是為了嘗試建立一個基準，您能否讓我們了解今年的收入有多少是由黃油庫存和庫存減少所驅動的？如果我的計算正確的話，根據您的指導，我們現在談論的是今年 DUV 收入的低水平為 80 億歐元。那麼，其中有多少來自庫存？

Yes. I think let me put it -- let met answer that in a different way. I think this is -- you really have to go deep into the supply chain, because it's in our service inventory. It's in the supply chain inventory. So I would have to really go deeper to give you an exact percentage.

是的。我想讓我以不同的方式來回答這個問題。我認為這是——你真的必須深入了解供應鏈，因為它在我們的服務庫存中。它在供應鏈庫存中。所以我必須深入了解才能給出一個準確的百分比。

But if we look at the 2022 DUV plants and especially for immersion, not so much for KrF because that's where we can see some improvement in terms of shipment numbers. But I think in terms of immersion 2022, I would currently think that our immersion sales number will be about the same as this year. Whereby this year, we, of course, were helped by this, you could say, onetime depletion of the stocks, is creating them from everywhere that we could.

但如果我們看一下 2022 年的 DUV 工廠，特別是浸沒式工廠，KrF 的情況就沒那麼好了，因為我們可以看到出貨量方面有所改善。但我認為就 2022 年沈浸式體驗而言，我目前認為我們的沉浸式體驗銷售數字將與今年大致相同。今年，我們當然得到了幫助，你可以說，一次性的庫存耗盡，讓我們從各個可能的地方創造它們。

So I wouldn't at this moment in time -- because don't forget, I mean, the immersion numbers this year are quite high. I think from an immersion point of view, you have to go back a long time to look at similar shipment numbers. I think it will probably be the same next year. But next year, we will not have the advantage of being able to deplete the stock. So this is the way that I would look at it.

所以目前我不會這麼做——因為別忘了，我的意思是，今年的沉浸式數字相當高。我認為從沉浸式的角度來看，你必須回顧很長一段時間才能看到類似的出貨量數字。我想明年可能也一樣。但明年，我們將不再擁有能夠消耗庫存的優勢。這就是我看待這個問題的方式。

And on KrF, some dry season there, you could see higher numbers next year because that's where we actually need the capacity. And that was also the answer to one of the earlier questions, where do we see it. I think we basically see this dry demand coming out of, I would say, the specialty markets or the mature markets, which is basically everywhere. So hopefully, that answers your question, Andrew.

在 KrF，那裡的某個旱季，明年你可能會看到更高的數字，因為那裡實際上需要容量。這也是先前問題之一的答案：我們在哪裡看到它。我認為，我們基本上看到這種乾貨需求來自專業市場或成熟市場，基本上無所不在。希望這能回答你的問題，安德魯。

Yes. It does. I mean if I could just follow up with that quickly. I mean you're talking about a "significant" double-digit increase in capacity to DUV. Clearly, not all of that is going to come online in '22. That presumably is just the starting point. But if we look out over the next couple of years, I mean, significant, perhaps to state the obvious is not 10%. And I know you want to save something for September. But I mean it feels like you're talking 20% plus or minus you have that kind of a ballpark? Would that be reasonable?

是的。確實如此。我的意思是如果我能快速跟進的話。我的意思是，您談論的是 DUV 容量的「顯著」兩位數增長。顯然，並非所有這些都會在 2022 年實現。這大概只是一個起點。但如果我們展望未來幾年，我的意思是，顯而易見的不是 10%。我知道你想為九月存點錢。但我的意思是，感覺您說的是 20% 左右，您有這樣的大概數字嗎？這樣合理嗎？

Yes. I mean you know us for a long time, so you can assess what significant means in our terms, and that's not 10%, as you pointed out. But what it is, we'll probably be more specific in September, the end of September. But yes, you also -- when capacity comes online, there's also a lead time between when the capacity comes online, when we get the models, the part, we can make the tools and we can ship it to the customers.

是的。我的意思是，您認識我們很長時間了，所以您可以評估在我們看來「重要」意味著什麼，而這並不是您所指出的 10%。但我們可能會在九月份，也就是九月底，給出更具體的答案。但是的，你也 - 當產能上線時，從產能上線到我們獲得模型、零件、製造工具並將其運送給客戶之間也存在一個交貨時間。

So part of that capacity that will come online, that significant capacity increase, which will be indeed double digit, that will have an effect in 2023, not in 2022. When it's available January 1, 2022, then you are right. But that's -- I pointed out, I mean, people and machines and potentially using extra square meters, it takes 12 to 18 months before it's there. And then they need to produce, and then we need to produce and then it needs to be installed.

因此，部分上線的產能，即顯著的產能成長（確實會達到兩位數），將在 2023 年產生影響，而不是 2022 年。當它在 2022 年 1 月 1 日可用時，那麼您是對的。但那是——我指出，我的意思是，人員和機器以及可能使用額外的平方米，需要 12 到 18 個月才能實現。然後他們需要生產，然後我們需要生產，然後需要安裝。

So I think we will see that capacity increase definitely occurring next year. And how much of that we can use for output, that still remains to be seen. And we're figuring that out together with our suppliers.

所以我認為明年我們肯定會看到產能增加。而其中有多少我們可以用於輸出，這還有待觀察。我們正在與供應商一起解決這個問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Didier Scemama of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Didier Scemama。

I have a first question and a quick follow-up. And maybe, Peter, if you could share your thoughts with us on a sort of a debate in the market that you also touched on your -- one of the 3 long-term drivers. So in the U.S., they've identified effectively a gap between what's being produced in the U.S. and what's being consumed. I think the numbers are 12% and 40%, if I remember correctly.

我有一個第一個問題和一個快速的後續問題。彼得，也許您可以與我們分享您對市場上某種爭論的看法，您也提到了您的——三大長期驅動因素之一。因此，在美國，他們有效地識別出了美國生產量和消費量之間的差距。如果我沒記錯的話，這兩個數字分別是 12% 和 40%。

So my question to you is if we were to narrow that gap substantially, how much spending on lease equipment that need to happen, number one. And number two, how long will it take to actually get there realistically? And then I've got a quick follow-up.

所以我的問題是，如果我們要大幅縮小這一差距，那麼首先需要在租賃設備上花費多少。第二，實際上要花多久時間才能達成這個目標？然後我有一個快速的跟進。

Yes. I think you might be surprised, but yes, I think it doesn't matter that much. Because we assume -- and I think that's a right assumption. If you look at the expansion plans, which are more, well, let's say more concrete in the U.S. But as you know, that, that discussion is also happening in Europe. These expansions will not be made by just a new company coming online. It will be the, I would say, established players, the leaders that have the capability and the competence to build those fabs and to manage them and have to process knowledge to copy exact, if I may use that word, those processes from all the parts of the world into the U.S. and into Europe.

是的。我想你可能會感到驚訝，但是是的，我認為這並不那麼重要。因為我們假設──我認為這是一個正確的假設。如果你看一下擴張計劃，那麼可以說它在美國更具體。但如你所知，歐洲也在進行這樣的討論。這些擴張不會僅僅透過一家新公司上線就能實現。我想說的是，那些成熟的參與者、那些擁有建造和管理這些晶圓廠的能力和資質的領導者，必須掌握複製這些工藝的知識，如果我可以使用這個詞的話，將這些工藝從世界各地複製到美國和歐洲。

And those companies, they are going to build those fabs to make sure that they can supply the market with the needs for those products. And it's going to be just a few companies which are going to be rational. I don't think that any administration can go to the CEOs of one of those companies and say because we want that capacity, you have build it. And it's going to be idle. It's going to be completely inefficient. And we're going to do that. So it's going to be rational. And all the information that we have points to those few companies that have the capability to build those fabs. So I think for my little point of view, yes there will be some inefficiency. Because you are building a new fab, a new operations in a place where you cannot piggyback on your local ecosystem if you do it in this different part of the world. So yes, there will be -- so there's a ramp-up time for those fabs would be somewhat inefficient. But it's not going to be double-digit percentages. I don't believe that at all. The rationale behavior of our key customers is -- will simply prevent that.

這些公司將建造這些晶圓廠，以確保能夠滿足市場對這些產品的需求。只有少數公司會保持理性。我認為任何政府都不能去找這些公司的執行長並說因為我們想要這種產能，所以你們必須建造它。而且它將處於閒置狀態。這將是完全沒有效率的。我們將這麼做。所以這將是合理的。我們掌握的所有資訊都表明，只有少數幾家公司有能力建造這些晶圓廠。所以我認為從我的小角度來看，是的，會存在一些效率低下的情況。因為如果你在世界不同的地方建造一個新的工廠、開展新的業務，你就無法借助當地的生態系統。是的，會有──這些晶圓廠的產能提升時間會有些低效。但百分比不會達到兩位數。我根本不相信。我們主要客戶的理性行為是－這將完全阻止這種情況發生。

Now how long will it take? I don't think we will see anything coming out of those fabs before 2024-2025. So I'd say it's a couple of years out. I mean, building those fab will take 2 to 3 years. And then they need to ramp. As you know, these will be big fabs. And they don't ramp all at once. They ramp in phases. So it's going to be 2024 onwards, '25, '26, and so it's not going to be short term. But again, yes, I think the drive for this technological sovereignty is really based on the assumption that also this industry will -- or the industry of our customers, the semiconductor industry, might very well double in terms of sales over the next 10 years, which means that just from a geographical risk point of view and from a manufacturing risk point of view, the desire to just spread the manufacturing capability across the globe, driven by a few manufacturers, a few large manufacturers that have the competence to do that, that seems very logical. And I think -- so I think it will happen.

現在需要多長時間？我認為在 2024-2025 年之前我們不會看到這些晶圓廠生產出任何東西。所以我想說這還需要幾年的時間。我的意思是，建造這些工廠需要 2 到 3 年的時間。然後他們需要加速。如你所知，這些將會是大型晶圓廠。而且它們不會一下子全部增加。他們分階段進行。所以這將是從 2024 年、2025 年、2026 年開始的，所以這不會是短期的。但是，是的，我認為推動這種技術主權的真正基礎是這樣的假設：這個行業——或者說我們的客戶所在的行業，半導體行業，在未來 10 年內的銷售額很可能會翻一番，這意味著，僅從地理風險和製造風險的角度來看，希望將製造能力擴展到全球，由少數幾家製造商、少數幾家有能力做到這一點的邏輯來推動這一點。 我認為——所以我認為這會發生。

It will not create massive inefficiency, some inefficiency, which of course will help us a bit. But it will be driven by, I think, rationality and it will be driven by government subsidies. That's true. So that's -- when you're a taxpayer in those jurisdiction, it's your world.

它不會造成大規模的低效率，但會造成一些低效率，這當然會對我們有點幫助。但我認為，這將由理性和政府補貼推動。這是真的。所以——當你是這些管轄區的納稅人時，這就是你的世界。

As a quick follow-up, I just wanted to come back to DUV. My question to you, Peter, is very simple. Over the years, the semiconductor industry has never managed to effectively exert pricing power with that customer base for all the reasons that we can imagine.

作為快速跟進，我只是想回到 DUV。彼得，我要問你的問題很簡單。多年來，由於種種我們能想到的原因，半導體產業從未能夠有效地對該客戶群施加定價權。

But now that -- I'm not saying you should abuse that pricing power, but now that you're in a slightly different position, you're talking about the doubling of market demand over the next 10 years, et cetera, and given the investments that you have to make and particularly shareholders are also worried that, hey, is this the right time to add that much capacity, would it be feasible for ASML to ask your customers to effectively pay in advance for those DUV tools so that you completely derisk your model and completely eliminate the risk for double ordering or triple ordering?

但現在——我並不是說你應該濫用定價權，但現在你的處境略有不同，你談論的是未來 10 年市場需求翻一番等等，考慮到你必須進行的投資，特別是股東們也擔心，現在是增加那麼多多產能的正確時機嗎？ ASML 是否可以要求你的客戶提前支付這些 DUV 工具的費用，以便你完全降低模型風險並完全消除雙重訂購或三重訂購的風險？

Well, it's always a good question to ask as an entrepreneur to derisk completely their business model. But to be very honest, I mean, that never happens. And I don't think it's the way also we need to deal with our customers, which is only a handful, and there's a handful of equipment players.

嗯，作為一名企業家，徹底降低其商業模式的風險始終是一個好問題。但說實話，這種事永遠不會發生。而且我認為這也不是我們需要與客戶打交道的方式，我們的客戶只是少數，而且設備製造商也只有少數。

And on deep UV, yes, I think we will charge our customers the value of those machines. And to give you an example, we will put deep UV KrF on NXT platform, which will significantly increase the productivity for our customers, which also, I think we are entitled to part of that value and which I think they will pay us.

對於深紫外線，是的，我認為我們會向客戶收取這些機器的價值。舉個例子，我們將在 NXT 平台上採用深紫外線 KrF，這將顯著提高客戶的生產力，而且我認為我們有權獲得部分價值，而且我認為他們會付錢給我們。

So I think the way that we look at increasing prices is really to provide our customers more value, not to say, well, we're in a squeeze situation, which could be last for -- it's a couple of years, but then we're back to normal again. And then customers will push back in this traditional customer supply relationship. That's not the way this industry works. And I don't think this industry should work this way. We have to provide value, and we have many opportunities to create value for our customers and thereby asking a higher price, but the customer will get the value. That's how we work.

因此，我認為我們考慮漲價的方式實際上是為了給我們的客戶更多的價值，而不是說，我們正處於一種擠壓的境地，這種狀況可能會持續幾年，但之後我們就會恢復正常。然後客戶就會反抗這種傳統的客戶供應關係。這個行業並不是這樣運作的。我認為這個行業不應該這樣運作。我們必須提供價值，我們有很多機會為客戶創造價值，從而要求更高的價格，但客戶將獲得價值。這就是我們的工作方式。

I think on the risk of the capacity increases, I said it before: I think where we've structurally underestimated the growth of this industry and with everything that we're seeing today, I think there are good reasons to believe that the underlying demand of what we see, and especially in dry deep UV and the application space that deep UV is servicing, there is a very good reason to add extra capacity because we need that capacity.

我認為關於產能增加的風險，我之前說過：我認為我們在結構上低估了這個行業的增長，並且根據我們今天看到的一切，我認為有充分的理由相信我們所看到的潛在需求，特別是在乾式深紫外線和深紫外線服務的應用領域，有很好的理由增加額外的產能，因為我們需要這種產能。

And we will sell those too. We will make more money, and I think we'll satisfy our shareholders, and I think the risk is limited. And short term, we always have small cycles. But longer term, I don't see the risk.

我們也會出售這些。我們將賺更多的錢，我認為我們會讓我們的股東滿意，我認為風險是有限的。短期內，我們總是有小週期。但從長遠來看，我認為不存在風險。

And in terms of paying in advance, just to remind everyone that, of course, paying in advance does happen on the EUV front. So on the EUV front, given the long lead times, we do have prepayment schedules with our customers, which are significant and also clear, I think, from the free cash flow generation of ASML in the past 12 months.

關於預付款，只是提醒大家，當然，在 EUV 方面確實需要預付款。因此，在 EUV 方面，考慮到較長的交貨時間，我們確實與客戶制定了預付款計劃，這些計劃非常重要，而且我認為，從過去 12 個月 ASML 產生的自由現金流來看，這些計劃也很明顯。

So I think in that way, the comment that you made, I think we're doing that. But not to -- we don't do it in this specific circumstance but just do it as a matter of principle, because of the very long lead times that we have in UV.

所以我認為，從這個角度來看，正如您所說，我們正在這樣做。但不是——我們不會在這種特定情況下這樣做，而只是出於原則才這樣做，因為我們在 UV 方面的準備時間非常長。

That's a very good point, Roger, because I mean, the lead times of deep UV are a lot shorter, which also means that you can manage the supply and demand better. But we will increase the capacity also -- not only a day of loss but also in the supply chain. But again, based on our strong conviction that we need that capacity going forward, because of the market developments that we are seeing. And I think that risk, we believe, is limited.

羅傑，你的觀點非常好，因為深紫外線的交貨時間要短得多，這也意味著你可以更好地管理供需。但我們也將提高產能——不僅增加一天的損失，而且還增加整個供應鏈的損失。但是，我們堅信，鑑於我們所看到的市場發展，我們需要這種能力。我認為，我們相信這種風險是有限的。

All right. Thank you. We have time for one last question. If you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Now operator, may we have the last caller, please?

好的。謝謝。我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。如果您無法接通本次電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。接線生，請問我們可以接聽最後一位來電嗎？

That's the line of C.J. Muse at Evercore ISI.

這是 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse 的說法。

I guess first question, Peter, I wanted to clarify a comment you made to Andrew. Were you guiding immersion units next year flat, or was that a commentary around supply availability before adding new capacity?

我想第一個問題是，彼得，我想澄清一下你對安德魯的評論。您是否預計明年浸入式裝置產量將持平，還是在增加新產能之前對供應可用性進行評論？

Yes. It also might have been a bit convoluted answer, but what I was trying to do because basically giving you 2, I would say, messages. We have in 2021, which is this year, we have, you could say, a spurt sales because of the fact that we're depleting everything we can find in terms of inventory. And some would argue that some of our minimum stocking levels for service might be at a real minimum, because we're using everything to make our machines. So that is this onetime step-up, which gives you an immersion number that is high. I think that will be probably the number that we're also looking for, for next year where we don't have that ability to have this onetime step-up. So we're effectively increasing capacity and getting to that same level.

是的。這也可能是有點複雜的答案，但我試著這樣做是因為基本上給你 2 個訊息。 2021 年，也就是今年，可以說我們的銷售額出現了井噴式成長，因為我們正在耗盡所有庫存。有些人可能會爭辯說，我們為提供服務而儲備的最低庫存水平可能已經達到了真正的最低水平，因為我們使用所有材料來製造我們的機器。這就是一次性的提升，它可以帶給你很高的沉浸感。我認為這也可能是我們所期待的數字，因為明年我們沒有能力實現這種一次性的提升。因此，我們正在有效地提高產能並達到相同的水平。

But that's basically how I think we should look at next year because that is what, I think, from a capacity point of view, with what we are seeing, we can do in terms of cycle time reduction in terms of putting some extra people to work we can do, so effectively, in the increasing capacity but ending up at about the same number.

但我認為這基本上就是我們應該如何看待明年的情況，因為我認為，從產能的角度來看，根據我們所看到的情況，我們可以在縮短週期時間方面做一些事情，通過增加一些額外的人員來提高產能，但最終的產能大約保持不變。

Okay. Helpful. And then just a quick follow-up, Roger. At your last Analyst Day, you targeted 55-plus percent gross margin. As you think about calendar '22 and exiting this year with EUV margins of 50-plus EUV service moving higher as they come off warranty and a pretty robust mix from DUV, why wouldn't we be approaching that kind of number in calendar '22?

好的。很有幫助。接下來是簡短的後續問題，羅傑。在上次分析師日上，你們設定的毛利率目標是 55% 以上。當您想到 2022 年日曆時，隨著 EUV 服務超出保固期以及 DUV 的強勁組合，今年的 EUV 利潤率將達到 50 以上，EUV 服務的利潤率也將隨之上升，那麼為什麼我們不能在 2022 年日曆中接近這樣的數字呢？

So first of all, I don't think in a Capital Markets Day, we mentioned 55%. If I recall correctly, we had 50% there, but we did have 2 arrows in front of it, leaving it entirely to your imagination how far you wanted to stretch that.

首先，我認為在資本市場日我們並沒有提到 55%。如果我沒記錯的話，我們在那裡有 50%，但我們前面確實有 2 個箭頭，完全由您想像您想將其延伸到多遠。

So I think '22, based on the number of the dynamics that I mentioned, certainly from a gross margin perspective, has promise in there for sure. But it's way too early to give any definitive guidance on that. But you would have seen -- if you look at the trajectory over the year, you would see that we're now guiding 50%, the 50% -- 152 percentage for next quarter. That's a good basis. That has already quite a bit of D in there. Of course, next year, everything would be D. Next year, you would benefit from the 2050 a bit more than you would this year. So there's a bit of potential there, but it's still a bit too early to give any guidance on what it's going to look like next year.

因此，我認為，根據我提到的動態數量，當然從毛利率的角度來看，22 年肯定是有希望的。但現在就給出任何明確的指導還為時過早。但你會看到——如果你看一下全年的軌跡，你會發現我們現在指導的是 50%，即下個季度的 50%——152%。這是一個很好的基礎。那裡已經有相當多的 D 了。當然，明年，一切都會是 D。明年，您將從 2050 中受益比今年更多。因此，這其中還是有一定潛力的，但是現在就對明年的情況做出任何預測還為時過早。

All right. Before we sign off, I'd like to remind you that our Investor Day is currently planned to be held in London on September 29, 2021, COVID conditions permitting. We will keep you posted on details and hope you'll be able to join us.

好的。在我們結束之前，我想提醒您，如果 COVID 條件允許，我們的投資者日目前計劃於 2021 年 9 月 29 日在倫敦舉行。我們將隨時向您通報詳細信息，並希望您能加入我們。

Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thank you.

現在，我謹代表 ASML 感謝大家今天的參加。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Thank you. This now concludes the meeting. Thank you all very much for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。會議到此結束。非常感謝大家的出席。現在您可以斷開線路了。