艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2020 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Conference call on January 20, 2021. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持。歡迎參加2021年1月20日ASML 2020年第四季及全年財務業績電話會議。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將電話會議交給 Skip Miller 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2020 fourth quarter and full year results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received.

謝謝您，接線生。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink；以及我們的財務長 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2020 年第四季和全年業績。此次通話時間為 60 分鐘，問題將依照收到的順序進行解答。

This call is also being broadcast live over the internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

這次電話會議也透過 asml.com 進行了網路現場直播。管理層開場白的記錄和電話會議的重播將在本次電話會議結束後不久在我們的網站上提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。有關風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明可在我們的網站 asml.com 上找到，也可以在 ASML 的 20-F 表格年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full year 2020 results conference call. And I do hope all of you and your families are healthy and safe. But before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the fourth quarter and full year 2020 as well as provide our view on the coming quarters. And Roger will start with a review of our fourth quarter and full year 2020 financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook.

謝謝你，斯基普。歡迎大家，感謝您參加我們的 2020 年第四季和全年業績電話會議。我真誠地希望你們所有人和你們的家人都健康、平安。但在開始問答環節之前，羅傑和我想對 2020 年第四季和全年進行概述和評論，並對未來幾季發表看法。羅傑將首先回顧我們 2020 年第四季和全年的財務業績，並對我們的短期展望發表一些補充評論，而我將在介紹結束時對當前的商業環境和我們未來的商業展望發表一些補充評論。

Roger, if you will?

羅傑，你願意嗎？

Thank you, Peter. Welcome, everyone. I will first review the fourth quarter and full year financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the first quarter of 2021. Net sales came in above guidance at EUR 4.3 billion, primarily due to additional DPV system revenue and upgrade business opportunities. We shipped 9 EUV systems and recognized EUR 1.1 billion revenue from 8 systems this quarter. One system was shipped with a new configuration that needs to be qualified at customer site as the revenue will be recognized after site acceptance staffed in early 2021. Net system sales of EUR 3.2 billion was again more weighted towards Logic at 72%, with the remaining 28% from Memory. The strength in Logic drives both DPV and EUV revenue, and recovery in Memory business is mainly driven by DRAM.

謝謝你，彼得。歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第四季度和全年的財務業績，然後對 2021 年第一季提供指導。淨銷售額高於預期，達到 43 億歐元，主要得益於額外的 DPV 系統收入和升級業務機會。本季我們出貨了 9 套 EUV 系統，並從 8 套系統實現了 11 億歐元的營收。一個系統採用了新的配置，需要在客戶現場進行鑑定，因為收入將在 2021 年初現場驗收後確認。32 億歐元的淨系統銷售額中，邏輯產品佔比重再次增加到 72%，其餘 28% 來自記憶體。邏輯業務的強勁成長推動了 DPV 和 EUV 收入的成長，而記憶體業務的復甦主要由 DRAM 推動。

Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.1 billion above guidance, showing continued strength in our service and upgrade business. Gross margin for the quarter was 52% and was above guidance due to the additional DPV immersion and upgrade business. On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 556 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 152 million, which was slightly above our guidance. Net income in Q4 was EUR 1.4 billion, representing 31.7% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 3.23.

本季安裝基礎管理銷售額達到 11 億歐元，高於預期，顯示我們的服務和升級業務持續強勁。本季毛利率為 52%，由於增加了 DPV 浸入和升級業務，因此高於預期。在營運費用方面，研發費用為 5.56 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用為 1.52 億歐元，略高於我們的預期。第四季淨收入為 14 億歐元，佔淨銷售額的 31.7%，每股收益為 3.23 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the fourth quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 7.4 billion, which is significantly higher due to customer down payments and early payments, which materialize in 2020.

轉向資產負債表。截至第四季度，我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資總額為 74 億歐元，由於客戶首付款和提前付款（將於 2020 年實現），這一數字大幅提高。

Moving to the order book. Q4 net system bookings came in at EUR 4.2 billion, including EUR 1.1 billion for EUV systems, net 6, and very strong DPV demand. Order intake was largely driven by Logic with 78% of bookings. And Memory, the remaining 22%. For the full year, net sales grew 18% to EUR 14 billion. EUV system sales in 2020 was EUR 4.5 billion, which is about a 60% increase from last year.

移至訂單簿。第四季淨系統訂單額為 42 億歐元，其中包括 EUV 系統淨訂單額 11 億歐元、6 億歐元和非常強勁的 DPV 需求。訂單量主要由 Logic 推動，佔訂單量的 78%。剩下的 22% 屬於記憶體。全年淨銷售額成長 18%，達到 140 億歐元。2020年EUV系統銷售額為45億歐元，比去年成長約60%。

On EUV margins, we continue to drive profitability in both the systems as well as the service business. We achieved our 40% system gross margin in 2020 and delivered a positive margin on EUV service. We expect the upward trend for both systems and services gross margin to continue in future years.

在 EUV 利潤率方面，我們持續推動系統和服務業務的獲利能力。我們在 2020 年實現了 40% 的系統毛利率，並在 EUV 服務上實現了正利潤。我們預計未來幾年系統和服務毛利率仍將持續上升。

The Installed Base Management sales was EUR 3.7 billion, which is a 30% increase compared to previous year. In 2020, we had a total of EUR 11.3 billion, reflecting customers' strong demand for EUV and DPV technology. DPV booking value was at a record EUR 7.3 billion, with demand from both advanced as well as mature market technologies. Our R&D spending increased to EUR 2.2 billion in 2020. While we continue to invest in DPV and applications, product innovation, the increase was primarily driven by the acceleration of our EUV road map, both low and High-NA. Overall R&D investments as a percentage of 2020 sales was about 16%, SG&A was about 4% of sales.

安裝基礎管理銷售額為 37 億歐元，較上年成長 30%。2020年，我們的總收入達到113億歐元，反映了客戶對EUV和DPV技術的強勁需求。DPV 預訂價值達到創紀錄的 73 億歐元，來自先進市場技術和成熟市場技術的需求增加。2020 年，我們的研發支出增加至 22 億歐元。雖然我們繼續在 DPV 和應用、產品創新方面進行投資，但成長主要是由於我們的 EUV 路線圖（低 NA 和高 NA）的加速推動。整體研發投資佔 2020 年銷售額的比例約為 16%，銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 佔銷售額的比例約為 4%。

Net income for the full year was EUR 3.6 billion, resulting in 25.4% of net sales and an EPS of EUR 8.49. Improvements in working capital contributed to a free cash flow generation of EUR 3.6 billion as we continue to invest CapEx in support of our road map and planned capacity ramp. Excess cash will be returned as per our policy.

全年淨收入為 36 億歐元，佔淨銷售額的 25.4%，每股收益為 8.49 歐元。隨著我們繼續投資資本支出以支持我們的路線圖和計畫的產能提升，營運資本的改善促成了 36 億歐元的自由現金流產生。多餘的現金將按照我們的政策退還。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the first quarter of 2021. We expect Q1 total net sales of between EUR 3.9 billion and EUR 4.1 billion, which is a very strong start of the year and a reflection of the current market demand. We expect our Q1 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 950 million. Gross margin for Q1 is expected to be between 50% and 51%. The expected R&D expenses for Q1 are EUR 620 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at EUR 165 million, reflecting a continued investment in the future growth of the company. The higher R&D is to support road map plans to drive further innovation of our EUV, DPV and apps products. The SG&A increase is driven by higher IT, security costs and general organizational growth.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2021 年第一季的期望。我們預計第一季總淨銷售額將在 39 億歐元至 41 億歐元之間，這是今年非常強勁的開局，也是當前市場需求的反映。我們預計第一季安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 9.5 億歐元。預計第一季的毛利率在50%至51%之間。第一季預計研發費用為 6.2 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用預計為 1.65 億歐元，反映了公司對未來成長的持續投資。更高層級的研發是為了支援路線圖計劃，推動我們的 EUV、DPV 和應用產品的進一步創新。銷售、一般及行政費用的增加是由於 IT 成本、安全成本和整體組織成長的推動。

These quarterly run rates are a good indicator for the expected full year operating expenses. Our estimated 2021 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 14% and 15%.

這些季度運行率是預期全年營運費用的良好指標。我們預計 2021 年年化有效稅率將在 14% 至 15% 之間。

Regarding our capital return, ASML paid total dividends of EUR 1.1 billion in 2020, made up of the 2019 final dividend and 2020 interim dividend. ASML intends to declare a total dividend with respect to 2020 of EUR 2.75 per ordinary share. Recognizing the interim dividend of EUR 1.20 per ordinary share paid in November '20, this leads to a final dividend proposal to the general meeting of EUR 1.55 per ordinary share. This is a 15% increase compared to the 2019 dividend.

關於我們的資本回報，ASML 在 2020 年支付了總計 11 億歐元的股息，包括 2019 年末期股息和 2020 年中期股息。ASML 計劃宣布 2020 年每股普通股派發 2.75 歐元的總股息。確認 20 年 11 月支付的每股普通股 1.20 歐元的中期股息，這導致向股東大會提議派發每股普通股 1.55 歐元的最終股息。與 2019 年的股息相比，這一數字增加了 15%。

The 2021 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders will take place on April 29, 2021, in Veldhoven. Through December 31, 2020, ASML acquired 3.9 million shares under the 2020-2022 program for a total amount of EUR 1.2 billion. Given our strong cash position and positive outlook, we expect to execute a significant share buyback in Q1 2021.

2021 年年度股東大會將於 2021 年 4 月 29 日在費爾德霍芬舉行。截至2020年12月31日，ASML根據2020-2022年計畫收購了390萬股股票，總金額為12億歐元。鑑於我們強大的現金狀況和積極的前景，我們預計將在 2021 年第一季進行大規模股票回購。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, we had a very strong quarter, resulting in another solid year of growth in both sales and profitability, driven by strong Logic, recovering Memory demand and a significant step-up in our Installed Base revenue. We were able to achieve an 18% top line growth and 37% growth in profitability despite some unique challenges we're having to continue to run our business through the pandemic. I think this is all thanks to our employees and partners who have done a remarkable job executing in this challenging environment. However, we continue to remain vigilant as this COVID-19-induced crisis is not behind us yet. Following a strong 2020, we currently expect another year of good growth in revenue and profitability in 2021.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的，我們本季表現非常強勁，銷售額和盈利能力再創穩健增長，這得益於強勁的邏輯業務、恢復的內存需求以及安裝基數收入的大幅提升。儘管我們在疫情期間繼續經營業務面臨一些獨特的挑戰，但我們仍實現了 18% 的營收成長和 37% 的獲利成長。我認為這一切都要歸功於我們的員工和合作夥伴，他們在這個充滿挑戰的環境中做出了卓越的工作。然而，我們仍需保持警惕，因為這場由 COVID-19 引發的危機尚未過去。繼 2020 年強勁成長之後，我們目前預計 2021 年營收和獲利能力將再次實現良好成長。

In Logic, we expect another very healthy year driven by a further broadening of the application space, fueled by the global digital transition. Customers continue to see strong demand for advanced nodes, which includes the secular growth drivers, such as 5G, AI and HPC. And in addition, and also driven by the digital transformation, we are seeing a strengthening demand for the more mature nodes across a wide variety of markets such as consumer, automotive and industrial. While we are still very early on in the year, we think that with these demand drivers on full throttle for advanced as well as mature nodes, we expect Logic revenue to be up at least 10% from an already very high number of EUR 7.4 billion in 2020.

在邏輯領域，我們預計，在全球數位轉型的推動下，應用空間將進一步擴大，這將推動邏輯領域又一個非常健康的一年。客戶繼續看到對先進節點的強勁需求，其中包括 5G、AI 和 HPC 等長期成長動力。此外，在數位轉型的推動下，我們看到消費、汽車和工業等各個市場對更成熟節點的需求日益增強。雖然今年才剛開始，但我們認為，隨著這些對先進和成熟節點的需求驅動全面推進，我們預計 Logic 的營收將在 2020 年已經很高的 74 億歐元的基礎上成長至少 10%。

In Memory, customers have indicated that inventory levels continue to come down and expect a further tightening of supply throughout the year. As is the case with Logic, the digital transformation is also fueling memory demand across the broadening application space. Customers continue to see healthy demand in data centers with increasing Memory content in consumer electronics. With customers indicating stronger bit growth this year for DRAM around 20% and for 3D NAND around 30% to 35%. And taking into account lithography 2 utilization already at high levels, we expect a recovery in lithography demand for Memory to continue this -- through this year. Therefore, we expect Memory revenue to be up around 20% this year from EUR 2.9 billion in 2020. Although DRAM primarily uses DPV technology today, we do expect our EUV shipments to DRAM customers to increase in the coming years.

在記憶方面，客戶表示庫存水準持續下降，預計全年供應將進一步收緊。與邏輯的情況一樣，數位轉型也推動了不斷擴大的應用領域的記憶體需求。隨著消費性電子產品中儲存容量的不斷增加，客戶對資料中心的需求持續成長。客戶表示，今年 DRAM 的位元成長率將達到 20% 左右，3D NAND 的位元成長率將達到 30% 至 35% 左右。考慮到光刻技術的利用率已經處於高水平，我們預計記憶體的光刻需求將在今年持續復甦。因此，我們預計今年的記憶體收入將比 2020 年的 29 億歐元成長約 20%。儘管目前 DRAM 主要使用 DPV 技術，但我們預計未來幾年我們向 DRAM 客戶的 EUV 出貨量將會增加。

On our Installed Base revenue -- or Installed Base business, service revenue will continue to scale with the growing installed base. We expect an increase in contribution from EUV service revenue as these systems run more and more wafers in volume production. Customers will continue to utilize upgrades to increase capacity and improve imaging and overlay performance required of future nodes. With this continued growth in both service and upgrade business this year, we expect Installed Base revenue to be up around 10% this year from EUR 3.7 billion in 2020.

就我們的安裝基數收入或安裝基數業務而言，服務收入將隨著安裝基數的成長而持續擴大。隨著這些系統在大量生產中運行越來越多的晶圓，我們預計 EUV 服務收入的貢獻將會增加。客戶將繼續利用升級來增加容量並提高未來節點所需的成像和覆蓋性能。隨著今年服務和升級業務的持續成長，我們預計今年的安裝基礎收入將比 2020 年的 37 億歐元成長約 10%。

All in all, we started the year with robust demand across the entire industry and across all geographical regions. This should bode well for a double-digit upside from our 2020 revenue numbers. We feel comfortable with the levels of potential growth expectation for business segment, but clearly see potential upside to these numbers, where we can disregard any further impact of export control regulations resulting from the current geopolitical situation.

總而言之，我們在新的一年伊始就看到了整個產業和所有地理區域的強勁需求。這預示著我們 2020 年的營收將實現兩位數的成長。我們對業務部門的潛在成長預期水準感到滿意，但清楚地看到了這些數字的潛在上升空間，我們可以忽略當前地緣政治局勢導致的出口管制條例的進一步影響。

I would now like to update you on our products and business starting with EUV. EUV is making strong progress and continues to mature as we execute our road map and grow our Logic and DRAM business. As Roger mentioned, we shipped 9 systems and recognized revenue of 8 systems in Q4, bringing the total to 31 systems in 2020, with a revenue of EUR 4.5 billion for the year. This translates to about 60% growth in EUV systems revenue, reflecting the expanding use of this technology in high-volume manufacturing.

現在我想向您介紹我們的產品和業務，從 EUV 開始。隨著我們執行路線圖並發展邏輯和 DRAM 業務，EUV 正在取得長足進步並不斷成熟。正如羅傑所提到的，我們在第四季度出貨了 9 個系統，並確認了 8 個系統的收入，使 2020 年的系統總數達到 31 個，全年收入為 45 億歐元。這意味著 EUV 系統收入成長約 60%，反映出該技術在大批量製造中的應用日益廣泛。

Based on customers' growing EUV demand in advanced nodes, we currently expect a growth of around 30% over last year, translating to around EUR 5.8 billion in EUV system revenue for 2021. We continue to improve the EUV manufacturing cycle time to enable the capacity in our factory to meet the growing EUV demand.

根據客戶在先進節點上不斷增長的 EUV 需求，我們目前預計將比去年增長約 30%，相當於 2021 年 EUV 系統營收約 58 億歐元。我們不斷縮短 EUV 製造週期，以使我們工廠的產能能夠滿足日益增長的 EUV 需求。

We will continue to drive the EUV 0.33 NA product road map, which is aligned to our customers' note cadence. Our goal is to deliver value to our customers via performance improvements in imaging, overlay and productivity. As customers continue to shrink on future nodes, the performance improvements of our 0.33 NA systems road map will also enable cost-effective double patterning solutions before customers reach a point where it will require High-NA to reduce process complexity. We are aligning with customers on the road map timing of High-NA, insertion and volume production, currently estimated to be in the 2025, 2026 time frame. To meet this time line, we will start integration of the modules this year and plan to have first qualified system in 2022.

我們將繼續推動 EUV 0.33 NA 產品路線圖，這與客戶的節奏保持一致。我們的目標是透過提高成像、覆蓋範圍和生產力方面的性能為客戶提供價值。隨著客戶在未來節點上繼續縮小尺寸，我們的 0.33 NA 系統路線圖的效能改進也將在客戶達到需要高 NA 來降低製程複雜性的程度之前實現具有成本效益的雙重圖案化解決方案。我們正在與客戶協調高NA、插入和批量生產的路線圖時間，目前估計是在2025年、2026年的時間範圍內。為了滿足這一時間表，我們將在今年開始模組集成，並計劃在 2022 年推出第一個合格的系統。

We plan initial installation of the first systems at customer site in 2023, and plan to provide a more detailed update on our High-NA program during our Investor Day this year.

我們計劃於 2023 年在客戶現場初步安裝首批系統，並計劃在今年的投資者日期間提供有關我們的 High-NA 計劃的更詳細更新。

In our DPV business, we're focused on meeting our customers' increasing demand for all of our DPV products by maximizing factory capacity, reducing installation cycle time and optimizing performance of our systems in the field. As we mentioned earlier, the application space for Logic is expanding rapidly, which also has an effect on the demand for DPV products across our entire product offering. The demand has actually been stronger than we anticipated some years ago, which means that we have increased our investments in R&D to provide our customers with ever more powerful and productive litho machines to help them deal with the increasing demand and lower cost per chip challenges.

在我們的 DPV 業務中，我們專注於透過最大限度地提高工廠產能、縮短安裝週期和優化現場系統性能來滿足客戶對我們所有 DPV 產品日益增長的需求。正如我們之前提到的，Logic 的應用空間正在迅速擴大，這也對我們整個產品系列中 DPV 產品的需求產生了影響。事實上，需求比我們幾年前預期的要強勁，這意味著我們增加了對研發的投資，為客戶提供更強大、更有效率的光刻機，幫助他們應對日益增長的需求和降低每晶片成本的挑戰。

Our DPV R&D plan, therefore, includes a significant program to bring DPV to our -- from our XT platform onto the NXT platform, thereby seriously boosting productivity and lithographic performance such as CD and overlay.

因此，我們的 DPV 研發計劃包括一項重要計劃，即將 DPV 從我們的 XT 平台轉移到我們的 NXT 平台，從而大幅提高生產力和 CD 和覆蓋等光刻性能。

In our application business, we had a record year for YieldStar shipments and shipped the first YieldStar 385 to a customer in Q4. The YieldStar 385 offers the latest overlay of focus metrology with enhanced throughput and accuracy to its customers' future node requirements. We also shipped an additional 2 e-scan 1,000 multi-beam systems in Q4, bringing the total number of shipments in 2020 to 3. And with 9 beams and high-speed stage technology, these ASMLs provide up to 600% higher productivity in single-beam systems.

在我們的應用業務中，YieldStar 的出貨量創下了歷史新高，並在第四季度向客戶發送了第一台 YieldStar 385。YieldStar 385 提供最新的焦點計量覆蓋，具有更高的吞吐量和準確性，可滿足客戶未來的節點需求。我們還在第四季額外出貨了 2 台 e-scan 1,000 多光束系統，使 2020 年的總出貨量達到 3 台。憑藉 9 束光和高速平台技術，這些 ASML 在單光束系統中可將生產率提高高達 600%。

In summary, 2020 was another great year despite the challenges presented by the pandemic. For 2021, taking into account that we're coming off a higher 2020 revenue base, we still expect a year of double-digit growth. This is driven by strong demand in Logic and continued recovery in Memory with potential upside to these numbers where we can disregard any further impact of export control regulations. The build-out of the digital infrastructure across multiple markets drives demand for both advanced as well as mature process nodes. This is expected to fuel demand across our entire product portfolio. Although there are, of course, still some near-term macro and geopolitical uncertainties, the long-term demand drivers only increase our confidence in our future growth outlook towards 2025.

總而言之，儘管面臨疫情帶來的挑戰，2020 年仍然是另一個偉大的一年。對於 2021 年，考慮到我們的收入基數高於 2020 年，我們仍然預計今年將實現兩位數的成長。這是由邏輯市場的強勁需求和記憶體市場的持續復甦所推動的，這些數字具有潛在的上升空間，我們可以忽略出口管制法規的進一步影響。跨多個市場的數位基礎設施建設推動了對先進和成熟製程節點的需求。預計這將推動我們整個產品組合的需求。儘管短期內仍存在一些宏觀和地緣政治不確定性，但長期需求驅動因素只會增強我們對2025年未來成長前景的信心。

And with that, we will be happy to take your questions.

我們將非常樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please.

謝謝你，羅傑和彼得。操作員將立即指導您在問答環節的協議。（接線員指示）現在接線員，請給我們最後的指示，然後問第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Mr. Joe Quatrochi.

（操作員指示）第一個問題來自 Joe Quatrochi 先生。

It's Wells Fargo. I was hoping to get some color on your Memory business and the demand you're seeing there. I think last quarter, you had talked about 30% growth for this year for Memory revenue, but you came in a little bit below that. So I guess, did something change there? And then how do we think about that follow through to that into 2021?

這是富國銀行。我希望了解一下你們的記憶體業務以及你們在那裡看到的需求。我認為上個季度您曾談到今年記憶體收入將成長 30%，但實際成長幅度略低於這個數字。所以我猜那裡發生了什麼變化嗎？那我們要如何考慮在 2021 年繼續貫徹這個理念呢？

Thanks, Joe. No, I don't think anything really materially changed there. In fact, the fact that we kind of missed the 30% was, in essence, the reallocation of a few tools from Memory into Logic. So that really had to deal with where do the tools go by the end of the quarter. So really is a spread over Q4 versus Q1. So not a systemic reason.

謝謝，喬。不，我認為那裡並沒有發生任何實質的改變。事實上，我們錯失了 30% 的原因是，本質上，我們將一些工具從記憶體重新分配到了邏輯中。所以這確實需要解決本季末這些工具的去向問題。因此，第四季與第一季之間確實存在利差。所以這不是系統性原因。

The momentum that we saw building up in Memory in the course of last year, we think, is continuing. And that has to do with the things that Peter talked about. We see the bid growth development, the 20% for DRAM, 35% for NAND. And of course, that's driven by demand in data centers. It's driven by what we see in terms of Memory being design and used in consumer electronics. So we see those underpinnings continue.

我們認為，去年我們在記憶領域看到的勢頭正在持續下去。這與彼得談論的事情有關。我們看到了出價成長的發展，DRAM 成長了 20%，NAND 成長了 35%。當然，這是由資料中心的需求所驅動的。這是由我們所看到的內存在消費性電子產品中的設計和使用所驅動的。因此，我們看到這些基礎仍在繼續。

We also see that the utilization of the lithography tools is at a very, very high level. So the demand momentum that we saw already in the second half of 2020 we believe is sustained into 2021. And that's the reason why we, again, forecast a 20% increase there for 2021.

我們也看到光刻工具的利用率處於非常高的水平。因此，我們相信我們在 2020 年下半年看到的需求動能將持續到 2021 年。這就是我們再次預測 2021 年成長率為 20% 的原因。

That's helpful. And then as a quick follow-up, in the prepared remarks, you talked about some supply chain limitations potentially on the EUV side that you're seeing. I guess does that change your expectations for producing 45 to 50 units or your capacity to do that number of units this year?

這很有幫助。然後，作為一個快速的後續問題，在準備好的評論中，您談到了您所看到的 EUV 方面可能存在的一些供應鏈限制。我想這會改變您對今年生產 45 到 50 個單位的預期或生產該數量單位的能力嗎？

I think our capacity, our capability internal in the Netherlands, in Veldhoven, to build 50 systems is there in terms of people and square meters. Now we have to build those systems out of modules, which we don't produce. It's in the supply chain. And it's just a reflection of what happened last year in Q2 and Q3, where as -- clearly, our key foundry customer came back and said, listen, our key customer for N3 is now blacklisted, so we cannot ship, so we need to adjust our 2021 outlook for EUV systems, which was followed by another customer that said, well, we're going to delay the road map, which also means that this will be pushed back once again, which actually led to a situation where we actually reduced the number of planned systems 2021 for EUV, because customers said, these are the 2 reasons. And they were 2 big customers.

我認為，就人員和麵積而言，我們在荷蘭費爾德霍芬內部建立 50 個系統的能力是存在的。現在我們必須用我們不生產的模組來建構這些系統。它位於供應鏈中。這只是去年第二季和第三季情況的反映，當時——顯然，我們的主要代工客戶回來說，聽著，我們 N3 的主要客戶現在被列入了黑名單，所以我們無法發貨，所以我們需要調整 2021 年 EUV 系統的前景，隨後另一位客戶說，好吧，我們將推遲路線圖，這也意味著這將再次被推遲了規劃系統數量的情況，因為客戶說，這是兩個原因。他們是兩個大客戶。

So what we did, we went to the supply chain and said, sorry, we need those lenses and lasers. Very expensive pieces of equipment. We need them actually later.

所以我們所做的就是，我們去供應鏈說，抱歉，我們需要那些鏡頭和雷射。非常昂貴的設備。我們稍後確實需要它們。

You need to realize that the integral lead time between the installation of an EUV tool and the start-up of module production is 20 months. So when you push back 6, 7, 8 months, yes, then -- and then finally, customers come to the realization that it's not as bad as they thought, and they want those machines. Then we have an issue with getting the modules on time, and that's the only issue. The only issue. It's just a result. It's a function of the fact that our customers changed their mind in Q2 and Q3 and then rechanged their mind back in Q4, and today.

您需要意識到，從安裝 EUV 工具到啟動模組生產之間的綜合交付週期為 20 個月。所以當你推遲 6、7、8 個月時，是的，然後——最後，客戶意識到情況並不像他們想像的那麼糟糕，他們想要那些機器。然後我們遇到了按時獲取模組的問題，這是唯一的問題。唯一的問題。這只是一個結果。這是因為我們的客戶在第二季和第三季改變了主意，然後在第四季和今天又改變了主意。

But there's nothing we can do about it, which actually means that we're all prepared to do 50 units next year. That is in 2022, it will just shift to 2022, yes? So it's the -- so it's -- you could say it's supply chain limitations by design because it's -- because the customers told us, we don't need them. And coming back there, oops, we might have been wrong.

但我們對此無能為力，這實際上意味著我們都準備好在明年做 50 個單位。那是在 2022 年，它會轉移到 2022 年，對嗎？所以這是——所以這是——你可以說這是設計上的供應鏈限制，因為——因為客戶告訴我們，我們不需要它們。回過頭來看，哎呀，我們可能錯了。

Next question is from Mr. Alex Duval.

下一個問題來自亞歷克斯·杜瓦爾先生。

It's Alex from Goldman Sachs. Congratulations on the very strong results. A quick question on the CapEx spending backdrop and how that feeds into your guidance. Obviously, TSMC is a very large CapEx spender. They've guided over 30% CapEx growth this year. Yet, your guidance, although very strong, it's closer to 12% on revenues. Clearly, you also have other verticals, do you also have other customers in the mix. But I wondered if you could give a little bit more color as to any areas where at the moment, you're being more prudent on your guidance, but where you could be a bit more positive over time and what you need to see to get more constructive?

我是高盛的亞歷克斯。恭喜您取得如此優異的成績。關於資本支出背景以及其如何影響您的指導，我有一個簡短的問題。顯然，台積電是一家資本支出非常大的公司。他們預計今年的資本支出將增加 30% 以上。然而，您的指導雖然非常強勁，但收入卻接近 12%。顯然，您還有其他垂直行業，您是否還有其他客戶。但我想知道您是否可以更詳細地說明一下，目前您在哪些領域對指導更加謹慎，但隨著時間的推移，您可以在哪些領域變得更加積極，以及您需要看到什麼才能變得更有建設性？

Yes. We gave a range, EUR 25 billion to EUR 28 billion. Hey, great. We plan our business based on what they ask us. And as you know, TSMC has been asking us, in 2020, on several occasions, to ship very different numbers for 2021. So this is -- what I'm saying is it's in constant flux. So what they are asking us and telling us that they would like from that point of view, has a range, and we need to be able to respond to that. So I don't think you can draw any direct conclusion from the TSMC CapEx numbers. Directionally, yes, but not in absolute terms.

是的。我們給的範圍是250億歐元到280億歐元。嘿，太棒了。我們根據他們的要求來規劃我們的業務。如你所知，台積電在 2020 年曾多次要求我們實現 2021 年截然不同的出貨量。所以這就是——我想說的是它在不斷變化。因此，他們向我們提出的問題以及他們從這個角度所希望得到的資訊都有一個範圍，我們需要能夠對此做出回應。因此我認為你不能從台積電資本支出數字直接得出任何結論。從方向上來說，是的，但不是絕對的。

Now having said that, I also said that I do believe that we see upside to the -- your calculated 12%. And an upside is clearly there, but I think that's upside that comes out of the Logic space in China. And of course, that will happen if the current export control regulations stay as is.

話雖如此，我也說過我確實相信我們看到了上升空間——你計算出的 12%。顯然這其中存在著優勢，但我認為這是來自中國邏輯領域的優勢。當然，如果現行出口管制條例保持不變，這種情況就會發生。

Now you could argue also, why do you -- why are you so conservative? Well, simply because what we've seen over the last 2 months in terms of regulations that we had to deal with and that basically we're issued rather suddenly, there is a level of conservatism at -- and on our side. I said, we're not going to add that upside yet to your 12%. Because we've been -- I wouldn't go per it, but I mean we've been surprised on a regular basis by all these new regulations that do have an impact on our business. So where nothing changes, it stays as is, there is a significant upside to what we told you today, but then everything needs to stay as is. And I think we made that clear in our prepared remarks.

現在你也可以爭論，為什麼你──為什麼你這麼保守？嗯，只是因為我們在過去兩個月看到我們必須處理的規定，而這些規定基本上是突然發布的，所以我們這邊存在一定程度的保守主義。我說，我們暫時不會將這一上漲幅度加到你的 12% 中。因為我們一直——我不會照做，但我的意思是，我們經常對這些對我們的業務產生影響的新法規感到驚訝。因此，如果沒有任何變化，情況就會保持原樣，我們今天告訴你們的情況會有顯著的好處，但一切都需要保持原樣。我認為我們在準備好的發言中已經明確表達了這一點。

Next question is from Mr. Mehdi Hosseini.

下一個問題來自 Mehdi Hosseini 先生。

It's Mehdi Hosseini from Susquehanna International. 2 questions. Peter, when you look in the longer term, looking at 3-nanometer transition, I understand opportunities in the near term. But I want to hear more about what your thinking has been, migrate to the second generation of entry. And I want to better understand how change of transistor architecture, like Samsung migrating to gate-all-around. And also introduction of High-NA is going to impact your overall system shipment. And I'm -- in context of what happened in -- during 2014 through 2016, when we migrated from planar transistor to FinFET. And there was some slowdown, and I want to see if you see the same kind of pattern happening, and I have a follow-up.

我是 Susquehanna International 的 Mehdi Hosseini。2 個問題。彼得，當你從長遠角度看，看看 3 奈米的轉變，我了解到短期內的機會。但我想進一步了解您的想法，遷移到第二代入門級產品。我想更了解電晶體架構如何變化，例如三星遷移到環柵技術。而且高NA的引入將會影響您的整體系統出貨量。我所討論的是 2014 年至 2016 年期間發生的事情，當時我們從平面電晶體遷移到了 FinFET。而且出現了一些放緩，我想看看您是否看到同樣的模式發生，我會進行跟進。

Yes. I'll follow up on 4 questions. So on the transistor architecture, yes, I think what we know today on the patterning side and especially, I would say, on the geometric side, I don't think it has a major impact. That's not what we expect. So whether it's the FinFET or the gate-all-around, it is in the 3-nanometer realm. And customers need that lithographic capability. And it's an architectural choice, as you pointed out. We don't think it has a major impact on our business.

是的。我將跟進 4 個問題。因此，就晶體管架構而言，是的，我認為我們今天所了解的圖案方面，特別是在幾何方面，我認為不會產生重大影響。這並不是我們所期望的。因此，無論是 FinFET 還是環柵，都屬於 3 奈米領域。客戶需要這種光刻能力。正如您所指出的，這是一種架構選擇。我們認為這不會對我們的業務產生重大影響。

The longer-term 3-nanometer transition. I think you were probably referring to the transistor architecture change. We'll just have to see how that pans out. An architecture change, even when we had FinFET, you also know that wasn't completely flawless because it is new, yes? And if there is a slowdown, it probably could be a slowdown because the technology is indeed new. And that the ramp is potentially slower. But that's speculation at this moment in time.

長期的 3 奈米轉變。我想您可能指的是晶體管架構的變化。我們只需看看結果如何。架構變化，即使我們有了 FinFET，你也知道它並不是完全完美，因為它是新的，對嗎？如果出現放緩，那可能是因為這項技術確實是新技術。而且成長速度可能會比較慢。但這只是目前的猜測。

From a, let's say, lithographic point of view, there's not much difference. How does that impact High-NA system shipments? Well, High-NA is not slated for the N3 node. It starts to be used at N2 and N2+. I would say N2+ and N1 and beyond.

從光刻的角度來看，並沒有太大的差別。這對高 NA 系統出貨量有何影響？嗯，High-NA 不適用於 N3 節點。它從 N2 和 N2+ 開始使用。我想說的是 N2+ 和 N1 以上。

So in -- for the 3-nanometer node, it doesn't have a major impact.

因此，對於 3 奈米節點來說，它不會產生重大影響。

I have a very short follow-up. China as a mix of your overall revenue has been going up 12%, 19%, 17% 2020. How do you see that trending in '21? And I understand this could be a source of upside, but what is your current projection?

我有一個非常簡短的後續問題。2020 年，中國市場佔貴公司總收入的比例分別成長了 12%、19% 和 17%。您如何看待 21 年的趨勢？我明白這可能是一個好處，但您目前的預測是什麼？

Yes. I think what we see -- we see that trend keep going up. It has to do with the fact that there is a significant amount of investment plan in China, Memory and Logic. In our -- what we gave you in terms of growth for 2021, 10% Logic, 20% Memory, 10% Installed Base. Our assumption there is that we -- that the indigenous Chinese business has about the same euro level, yes. But it's a different type of customer, yes? I mean as we told you also 3 months ago that we expect 2021 China business to grow, but largely in Memory. So it's in 3D NAND and in DRAM. Those are the big drivers. And that's in what I would call, what we gave you to calculate and somebody calculated it to a 12% growth number.

是的。我認為我們看到的是——我們看到這種趨勢持續上升。這與在中國、記憶體和邏輯領域有大量投資計劃有關。就我們的 2021 年成長而言，我們給出的預測是：邏輯成長 10%，記憶體成長 20%，安裝基數成長 10%。我們的假設是──中國本土企業的歐元水準大致相同，是的。但這是不同類型的客戶，對嗎？我的意思是，正如我們 3 個月前告訴您的那樣，我們預計 2021 年中國業務將成長，但主要集中在記憶體方面。它存在於 3D NAND 和 DRAM 中。這些都是主要驅動因素。這就是我所說的，我們讓你計算的結果，有人將其計算為 12% 的成長數字。

On top of that, there is a significant upside in Logic. How big can that be? It's significant. But like I said, we're a conservative company. We've experienced the unpredictability of the legislation over the last couple of months. We don't want to put that into your forecast right now, but when things don't change and they stay as is, there is some significant Logic upside in China.

除此之外，邏輯方面還有顯著的優勢。那能有多大？這很重要。但正如我所說，我們是一家保守的公司。過去幾個月我們經歷了立法的不可預測性。我們現在不想將其納入您的預測中，但當情況不變且保持現狀時，中國將具有顯著的邏輯優勢。

Next question is from Mr. C.J. Muse.

下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 先生。

It's C.J. with Evercore ISI. I guess first question on gross margins. You gave a pretty solid outlook for the March quarter. And as we move into the second half of the year, you're going to start shipping the EUV tools, I would assume. The installed base would start to come off warranty on the EUV side as well helping. So how should we think about the trajectory of gross margins? And is 52% plus or minus doable for the full year now?

我是 Evercore ISI 的 C.J.。我想第一個問題是關於毛利率的。您對三月季度的展望非常樂觀。我認為，隨著我們進入下半年，您將開始運送 EUV 工具。安裝基礎也將開始脫離 EUV 方面的保固期，這也會有所幫助。那我們該如何看待毛利率的走勢呢？那麼，全年漲幅達到或減去 52% 是否可行？

Thank you, C.J. So you might recall in the last call, in the Q3 call that we had, we talked about a bandwidth for the year between 48% and 50%. We also reminded people at that stage that in comparison to 2019, we also started the year with a 1% negative as far as that is concerned on High-NA. So that was one of the reasons why before doing your bridge between 2019 and 2020, you first need to dug that 1% out there.

謝謝，C.J。您可能還記得，在上次電話會議中，在我們進行的第三季電話會議中，我們討論了今年的頻寬在 48% 到 50% 之間。我們當時也提醒人們，與 2019 年相比，就高 NA 而言，我們今年年初的表現也為負 1%。所以這就是為什麼在 2019 年和 2020 年之間建立橋樑之前，你首先需要挖掘出那 1% 的原因之一。

I think bearing that in mind, but also bearing in mind how sales seems to be firming up in this year, my expectation would be that we're going to see gross margin trend towards the upper limit of the bandwidth. So the bandwidth of 48% to 50% that I gave in Q3, my current expectation based on the composition of sales would be that that's going to trend up towards the upper limit of that bandwidth.

我認為考慮到這一點，同時也考慮到今年的銷售額似乎正在走強，我預計我們將看到毛利率趨勢朝著頻寬的上限發展。因此，我給出的第三季 48% 到 50% 的頻寬，根據銷售組成，我目前的預期是，這將趨向於該頻寬的上限。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess a quick follow-up on a prior question around EUV supply constraints. It looks like implied planned revenue units is 40, your backlog is 42. Curious if you think your supply chain can offer any upside to that 40? And then if not, what does that tell you around EUV tool demand in '22? And do you need to start thinking about having sufficient capacity above 50 units?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想快速跟進一下之前關於 EUV 供應限制的問題。看起來隱含的計劃收入單位是 40，而您的積壓訂單是 42。好奇您是否認為您的供應鏈可以為這 40 帶來任何好處？如果不是，那麼這對 22 年的 EUV 工具需求有何啟示？您是否需要開始考慮在 50 個單位以上擁有足夠的容量？

Yes. Okay. Good question. I think, of course, we'll push the supply chain. And -- but don't expect miracles there. I mean if you get -- at the end of the year, you get 1 or 2 tools extra, okay, fine. But it's not going to give you 5 or 10 tools extra. It's simply not possible. I mean -- so what actually means is that the demand that we cannot fulfill this year, we will fulfill next year. And your point on the 50 capacity. I think it's efficient. The 50 capacity has to do with the fact that although customers are buying units, they're buying basically wafer capacity. And don't forget, we have a higher productivity tool coming out of the 3600D in the second half of this year, which has a 15% higher productivity.

是的。好的。好問題。我認為，我們當然會推動供應鏈。而且——但不要期待奇蹟會發生。我的意思是，如果你在年底得到 1 或 2 個額外的工具，好的。但它不會額外給你 5 或 10 個工具。這根本不可能。我的意思是——實際上意味著我們今年無法滿足的需求，我們將在明年滿足。還有您關於 50 個容量的觀點。我認為它很有效率。50 的產能與以下事實有關：儘管客戶正在購買單位，但他們購買的基本上是晶圓產能。別忘了，今年下半年我們將推出一款生產力更高的工具 3600D，生產力提高了 15%。

So with 2022, only being these, you already get a 15% higher wafer capacity out there. So with the 50 that we feel comfortable with. Also, from a supply chain point of view, we'll be able to manage that for next year, yes. And the 15% higher productivity on the tools compared to the C, you actually see that we have quite some -- we have ample opportunity to help our customers build wafer capacity, yes? So I think it's enough.

因此，到 2022 年，僅憑這些，晶圓產能就已經提高了 15%。所以我們對 50 這個數字感到滿意。此外，從供應鏈的角度來看，我們明年能夠做到這一點，是的。與 C 相比，這些工具的生產率提高了 15%，您實際上看到我們有相當多的機會 - 我們有充足的機會幫助我們的客戶建立晶圓產能，對嗎？所以我認為這就足夠了。

Next question is from Mr. Adithya Metuku.

下一個問題來自 Adithya Metuku 先生。

Yes. This is Bank of America. So my first question is just on your IBM customer. There's been a lot of discussion around whether the foundries are including something from them or whether they're not. I just wonder if you could give us some color on what you've factored into your FY '21 outlook for -- from your IBM customers?

是的。這是美國銀行。我的第一個問題是關於您的 IBM 客戶。關於代工廠是否包含自己的產品已經有很多討論。我只是想知道，您是否可以向我們詳細介紹您在 21 財年展望中考慮了哪些 IBM 客戶因素？

And secondly, I had a follow-up. So if you could answer that, I'll come to the follow-up.

其次，我進行了後續跟進。如果你能回答這個問題，我就會進行後續跟進。

Yes. I think we're not going to be specific on any customer as you can imagine because of the fact that we only have very few. So the issue is that when we look at 2021, 2 things are impacting our shipment schedule to our leading-edge customers is, one is what you refer to is effectively -- has there been a transition from tools that we originally planned for customer A potentially to customer B and C. I think, yes, that has happened.

是的。我認為我們不會針對任何客戶進行具體說明，正如您所想像的，因為我們的客戶數量非常少。因此，問題是，當我們展望 2021 年時，有兩件事影響著我們向前沿客戶的發貨計劃，一是您所指的有效方式——我們最初為客戶 A 計劃的工具是否可能過渡到為客戶 B 和 C 計劃的工具？我想，是的，這種情況已經發生了。

But on top of that, I think there is the increased demand for advanced nodes, yes? So it's the combination of the 2 that actually caters for maximizing the shipments out of our shipment capability, and it's the redistribution that has happened. So yes, I think we're, in that sense, sold out for this year, but perhaps with a one or two upsides, we are referring to the previous question. But I think no impact on this foreseen in our 2021 numbers.

但除此之外，我認為對高階節點的需求增加，是嗎？因此，兩者的結合實際上是為了最大限度地提高我們的運輸能力，並且這是已經發生的重新分配。所以是的，我認為從這個意義上來說，我們今年的門票已經售罄了，但也許還有一兩個好處，我們指的是上一個問題。但我認為我們的 2021 年數據不會對此產生影響。

Understood. And just as a follow-up, just on the metrology side, I just wondered if you could give us some color on how you're thinking about revenues in metrology in fiscal year '21?

明白了。作為後續問題，就計量方面而言，我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您對 21 財年計量收入的看法？

Yes. I think you're probably referring to the multi-beam tools, yes?

是的。我想您可能指的是多光束工具，是嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think those tools, 3 have been shipped to R&D centers. They need to be qualified. So that is going to be the key decision point. So customers are putting them into their metrology architecture and basically needs to be qualified with -- there's no loyalty to itself, but it's, of course, the software that actually drives the tools. So when that's done, we will recognize revenue. That's how it works. So it's this year for those 3 tools.

我認為這些工具有 3 個已經運送到研發中心。他們需要具備資格。所以這將是關鍵的決策點。因此，客戶將它們納入他們的計量架構中，基本上需要獲得資格——這本身並不忠誠，但當然，實際上是軟體驅動了工具。因此，當完成後，我們將確認收入。這就是它的工作原理。所以今年是這 3 種工具的年頭。

Understood. I just meant if you could give us some color around the growth in that bid, given these multi-beam tools are now shipping.

明白了。我只是想說，鑑於這些多光束工具現在正在發貨，您是否可以向我們提供有關該投標增長的一些資訊。

So it's what we're -- what we expect for 2021 is that we will have positive evaluations. And those positive evaluations will be followed by orders. So orders for HVM shipments. When that will happen, it's still a bit unclear because it depends on where we get the sign-offs, yes? But we could be able to -- we expect sign off in the first half of 2021. So this year, then we could see orders for shipment towards the end of 2022, yes? But I think -- so end of 2021. But I think that we would see an acceleration of that in the year 2022. So I think 2021 will be characterized by the qualification. And the decision of the customers to put multi-beam tools in their metrology strategy, which then will probably lead to first shipments towards the end of this year and then accelerating in 2022.

因此，我們預期 2021 年我們將獲得正面的評價。這些正面的評價將會隨之而來的是訂單。因此需要訂購 HVM 發貨。至於什麼時候會發生這種情況，目前還不太清楚，因為這取決於我們從哪裡獲得批准，對嗎？但我們能夠——我們預計將在 2021 年上半年簽署。那麼今年我們可能會看到 2022 年底出貨的訂單，對嗎？但我認為——到 2021 年底。但我認為，到 2022 年，這一進程將會加速。所以我認為 2021 年將以資格賽為特徵。客戶決定將多光束工具納入其計量策略，這可能會導致今年年底首批出貨，然後在 2022 年加速出貨。

Next question is from Mr. Sandeep Deshpande.

下一個問題來自桑迪普·德什潘德先生。

JPMorgan. I'd like to just go back to the question on the Memory market. You had guided to 30% growth last year. You did around 20%. This year, you're guiding the 20% growth. There is also the added -- there is going to be the shift to EUV-based DRAM at some point end of this year or into '22. So how should we be looking at the overall Memory outlook for ASML here? I mean are we going to see an even more accurate outlook because of what we saw last year in terms of what you reported? Or is this -- that this just goes along and it's just something shifted, and that is why it has happened? And I have 1 quick follow-up on the EUV associated with Memory.

摩根大通。我想回到有關內存市場的問題。您曾預測去年的成長率為 30%。你完成了大約 20%。今年，您指導的成長目標是 20%。另外還有一點——今年年底或 2022 年某個時候將轉向基於 EUV 的 DRAM。那我們該如何看待 ASML 的整體記憶體前景呢？我的意思是，根據您所報告的內容，我們是否將根據去年所看到的情況看到更準確的前景？或者這是——這只是自然而然發生的事情，只是發生了一些變化，這就是它發生的原因？我對與內存相關的 EUV 有一個快速的後續。

Yes, I think Memory outlook, it actually is developing the way that we expected and the way that we told you. You may remember that since the middle of last year, we've told you that we see utilization is going up. And that there will be a point where if we are at the theoretical maximum utilization that our customers will want more capacity. And that's actually happening.

是的，我認為記憶前景實際上正在按照我們預期和我們告訴您的方式發展。您可能還記得，自去年年中以來，我們就告訴過您，利用率正在上升。如果我們達到了理論上的最大利用率，那麼我們的客戶就會想要更多的容量。而這確實正在發生。

So now on the -- and I think Roger explained that on the 20% to 30% growth. The only reason why the 30% isn't 30% -- not 30%, but 20% is because some of those shipments that were earmarked Memory actually went to Logic. Why? Because Logic was on fire, and Memory was getting into fire in 2021. So just the choice of a customer that, hey, don't ship me to A, but ship me to B because that's why I have more business. So this was the only reason, which actually means that we are seeing -- Memory is coming in, especially DRAM. I mean we need to distinguish between DRAM and 3D NAND. We don't see as strong a recovery in 3D NAND. You could argue because we're not that sensitive to it. But we simply don't see it. We see it in DRAM stronger. So this is really is a DRAM game in 2021, whereby 20% bid growth which is the expectation of today, simply not -- simply too much to be dealt with in the current installed base. That's why we see the orders coming in.

那麼現在——我認為羅傑解釋了 20% 到 30% 的增長。30% 之所以不是 30%（不是 30% 而是 20%），唯一的原因是，一些原本指定用於記憶體的貨物實際上流向了邏輯部門。為什麼？因為邏輯很火，記憶在 2021 年也陷入火海。所以，客戶的選擇是，嘿，不要把我送到 A，而是把我送到 B，因為這就是我有更多的生意的原因。所以這是唯一的原因，這實際上意味著我們看到——記憶體正在進入，尤其是 DRAM。我的意思是我們需要區分 DRAM 和 3D NAND。我們認為 3D NAND 的復甦不會那麼強勁。您可能會爭辯，因為我們對此並不那麼敏感。但我們根本沒看到它。我們看到 DRAM 的表現更強。因此，這確實是 2021 年的 DRAM 遊戲，其中 20% 的出價增長是今天的預期，但這在當前的安裝基礎上實在是太多了，無法處理。這就是我們看到訂單湧入的原因。

So yes, EUV will be used in DRAM, especially in 1 alpha. But that is going to be limited, as we also mentioned last time. This is not going to be a node on node, let's say, full transition from DPV to EUV. Don't forget that EUV has a -- doesn't have a maturity level of DPV. So there will be a part of the wafer capacity will be allocated to EUV with a limited number of layers, which will grow over time. We'll see the first application of it end of the year and moving into 2022, yes? So it's going to be a gradual adoption of EUV in DRAM.

所以是的，EUV 將用於 DRAM，尤其是在 1 alpha 中。但這將是有限的，正如我們上次提到的那樣。這不會是一個節點上的轉變，也就是說，不會從 DPV 完全過渡到 EUV。不要忘記，EUV 的成熟度不如 DPV。因此，一部分晶圓產能將分配給層數有限的EUV，並且這一比例將隨著時間的推移而增長。我們將在今年年底和 2022 年看到它的首次應用，對嗎？因此 EUV 在 DRAM 中的應用將會逐步進行。

I mean just following up on that DRAM and EUV. How do you -- I mean you've had a very strong year last year in DPV and even this year looks very good in that technology. I mean do you expect this -- even as EUV ramps up in Memory, et cetera, in DRAM, whenever it does, however slowly does or however fast, does this level of this baseline effect of DPV remain as part of your revenues? And if we just add on EUV over time as we've seen over the last couple of years?

我的意思是跟進 DRAM 和 EUV。您如何——我的意思是，去年您在 DPV 方面表現非常出色，甚至今年該技術看起來也非常好。我的意思是，您是否預料到這種情況——即使 EUV 在內存等領域、DRAM 領域不斷湧現，無論速度是快是慢，DPV 的這種基線效應水平是否仍會成為您收入的一部分？如果我們像過去幾年看到的那樣，隨著時間的推移添加 EUV 會怎麼樣？

Yes. I think the number of EUV layers will be relatively limited as compared to Logic. So DPV will be the bulk of the layers and will stay the bulk of the layers, needing better lithographic performance and productivity. So this is why we have these extensive R&D programs still in DPV. I think DPV, in general, will be a bigger part of our business going forward than we anticipated a few years ago. And it's not only Memory, it's like we said in the prepared remarks, it's very much also the mature markets whereby 90-nanometer, 65, 45, 28 are all growing in terms of wafer capacity, for the simple reason that there are applications or device for applications in that technology realm that are basically supporting in IoT solutions. And that's a trend that we underestimated a couple of years ago. I think this has been a big driver for our DPV business. So it's not only Memory, where it will stay strong, it's very much also the broadening application space in DPV.

是的。我認為與 Logic 相比，EUV 層的數量相對有限。因此，DPV 將成為各層的主體，並將保持各層的主體，需要更好的光刻性能和生產率。這就是為什麼我們仍然在 DPV 中進行這些廣泛的研發專案。我認為，總體而言，DPV 在未來的業務中所佔的比重將比我們幾年前預期的更大。而且不僅僅是內存，就像我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，它也是非常成熟的市場，其中 90 奈米、65、45、28 的晶圓容量都在增長，原因很簡單，因為該技術領域中有應用程序或應用設備，基本上支持物聯網解決方案。這是我們幾年前低估的趨勢。我認為這對我們的 DPV 業務來說是一個巨大的推動力。因此，它不僅在記憶體領域保持強勁，而且在 DPV 領域的應用空間也不斷擴大。

Next question is from Mr. Pierre Ferragu.

下一個問題來自 Pierre Ferragu 先生。

New Street Research. Peter, a question from you, maybe like long side forward-looking, but also looking back maybe 2, 3 years ago. So TSMC is going to spend between $25 billion and $28 billion in CapEx this year. And they expect to grow revenues in the back of that in mid-teens, which means to me that that's a new normal for CapEx, like it's probably going to be a number that keeps growing from here. And I can't imagine a word in which that many leading-edge Logic chip get into data centers, into pieces, into firms without volumes at DRAM following. And so that feels very, very good in the long run for the industry.

新街研究。彼得，您問一個問題，也許是向前看，但也可能回顧 2、3 年前。因此，台積電今年的資本支出將在 250 億美元至 280 億美元之間。他們預計收入將在此基礎上成長 15% 左右，對我來說，這意味著這是資本支出的新常態，而這個數字可能會從現在開始持續成長。我無法想像有這麼多尖端邏輯晶片在沒有 DRAM 跟進的情況下進入資料中心、進入零件、進入公司。從長遠來看，這對該行業來說是非常非常好的。

And my question is first slide. In 2025 -- so like 2, 3 years ago, you gave us a 2025 outlook with a fairly wide margin. Did that kind of work in which TSMC spends so much in 2021? Was that part of your range? Or does that exceed what you were looking and then secondly, in -- so -- and then yes, of course, so my question behind that is your 2025 like kind of guide, do you think there is today a chance we go above the higher range of that range?

我的問題是第一張投影片。2025 年—就像 2、3 年前一樣，您給了我們一個幅度相當大的 2025 年展望。台積電在2021年投入如此多的精力在做這樣的工作嗎？這是你的範圍的一部分嗎？或者這是否超出了您所期望的範圍，其次，--所以--是的，當然，所以我的問題是您 2025 年的指導，您認為今天我們有機會超越該範圍的較高範圍嗎？

Well, you're basically asking me to give you a big review of our Capital Markets Day. But let's take it from a 30,000-feet level. 3 years ago -- what you're basically asking is, Peter, how do you think about the industry today as compared to 3 years ago?

嗯，你基本上是要求我對我們的資本市場日進行一次重要的回顧。但讓我們從 30,000 英尺的高度來看。三年前──彼得，你基本上想問的是，與三年前相比，你如何看待今天的產業？

Yes.

是的。

I'm more positive for all kinds of reasons because, like I said in answer to your previous question, I did not expect DPV to be as strong as it is today. And everything that we know, talking to our customers, will stay strong, yes? I think that is -- I could call it a surprise, but that's something that we didn't understand well. We understand that better today.

我出於各種原因都更加樂觀，因為就像我在回答你之前的問題時所說的那樣，我沒有想到 DPV 會像今天一樣強大。我們透過與客戶溝通了解到的所有資訊都將保持強勁，對嗎？我認為——我可以稱之為一個驚喜，但這是我們不太理解的事情。今天我們對此有了更深入的理解。

There's another thing that we assumed, as you know, when we talk about as a base case or a mid-market scenario, starting from the 16-nanometer node, we say basically every node that's 10% lower wafer capacity. So it's minus 10%, minus 10%, minus 10%, so by the time that you're at 5, you've had almost 4 times minus 10% reduction of that wafer capacity needed for that node. That seems very conservative at this moment in time if we listen to our customers. Because as a customer like TSMC doesn't tell us that they're going to spend 25 billion to 28 billion, if they believe that their wafer capacity that they need for those nodes is going to be minus 10%, minus 10%, minus 10%. So they obviously have now a different view as to the size of that market. And I think we all understand drivers. Perhaps not all. But we have -- but most of them, yes? So I think, all in all, I think there is a different basis for our assessment, I think, of where we can be in 2025, 2026 or 2027, for that matter, yes? And I think it hasn't worsened. I think it has gotten better.

如您所知，當我們談論基準或中端市場情境時，我們也假設了另一件事，從 16 奈米節點開始，我們基本上說每個節點的晶圓容量都會降低 10%。因此，它是負 10%，負 10%，負 10%，所以當你達到 5 時，該節點所需的晶圓容量已經減少了近 4 倍，即負 10%。如果我們聽取客戶的意見，這在目前看來似乎非常保守。因為作為台積電這樣的客戶，如果他們認為這些節點所需的晶圓產能將下降 10%、下降 10%、下降 10%，他們不會告訴我們他們將花費 250 億到 280 億美元。因此，他們現在顯然對該市場的規模有了不同的看法。我想我們都了解司機。也許並非全部。但是我們有——但是大多數都是這樣的，對嗎？所以我認為，總而言之，我認為我們對 2025 年、2026 年或 2027 年的狀況的評估有不同的依據，對嗎？我認為情況沒有惡化。我認為情況已經好轉了。

Definitely on the Logic side, right?

肯定是在邏輯方面，對嗎？

It's definitely on the Logic. But also to Pierre's comment, Memory is a derivative of Logic and Logic we need in all these applications, Memory will follow. So yes, do we have a more positive basic view as to the growth perspective of the industry? Yes, I think we have, yes?

這絕對是邏輯問題。但正如皮埃爾所評論的那樣，記憶是邏輯的衍生物，在所有這些應用中我們都需要邏輯，而記憶也會隨之而來。那麼，我們對該行業的成長前景是否有更積極的基本看法？是的，我想我們有，對吧？

Our next question is from Mr. Krish Sankar.

下一個問題來自克里什·桑卡爾先生。

It's Krish from Cowen. Congrats on the strong results. First question I had for you, Peter. I think you did answer this question in many ways. So sorry for beating it up again. The upside to calendar '21 numbers, is there a way you can simplify and say, do you think it comes from either Logic or Memory? Do you think it comes from DUV or EUV? And then I had a follow-up.

我是 Cowen 的 Krish。恭喜您取得如此優異的成績。我的第一個問題是想問你，彼得。我認為你確實從很多方面回答了這個問題。非常抱歉再次打它。21 年曆數字的優點是，有沒有一種方法可以簡化並說，您認為它來自邏輯還是記憶？您認為它來自 DUV 還是 EUV？然後我進行了後續跟進。

Yes, I think it comes from DUV and Logic.

是的，我認為它來自 DUV 和 Logic。

That is a very short answer for Peter.

對彼得來說，這是一個非常簡短的回答。

That is what it is.

事實就是這樣。

And then a follow-up for Roger. On the EUV service gross margins, 2 quarters ago in September, you turned positive. Is it fair to assume from here onward those margins should start and keep improving because all the 2019 tools coming off warranty keeps adding to the service gross margin?

然後是羅傑的後續行動。就 EUV 服務毛利率而言，兩個季度前的 9 月份，該數字變為正值。是否可以合理地假設從現在開始這些利潤率應該開始並持續提高，因為所有 2019 年超出保固期的工具都會不斷增加服務毛利率？

Yes, Krish, I think that's a fair assumption. So we -- indeed, we did turn positive during Q3. We were positive for the entire year. And as I mentioned also on the video, I believe that within about a 4-year time frame, we should see the EUV service margin sort of approach the corporate gross margin. And that's the trajectory that we're on. And it's a matter of, on the one hand, to your point, seeing tools getting out of warranty, seeing tools produce more and more wafers. So the throughput is going up. And as a result of that, the number of wafers and therefore the paperware for -- going up for us. On the other hand, us being better able to control the cost. So that's the trajectory that we're on.

是的，克里什，我認為這是一個合理的假設。因此，我們確實在第三季轉為積極狀態。我們對全年都持積極態度。正如我在影片中提到的那樣，我相信在大約 4 年的時間內，我們應該會看到 EUV 服務利潤率接近企業毛利率。這就是我們所走的軌跡。一方面，正如您所說，我們看到工具已經過了保固期，我們看到工俱生產的晶圓越來越多。因此吞吐量正在上升。因此，我們的晶圓數量和紙質材料數量都會增加。另一方面，我們能夠更好地控製成本。這就是我們的軌跡。

That's the goal in 4 years' time, and we'll continue to develop towards that goal.

這是4年後的目標，我們會繼續朝著這個目標發展。

Next question is from Mr. Aleksander Peterc.

下一個問題來自亞歷山大·彼得克先生。

So this is Alex from Societe Generale. I just have 2. One is on -- if you could comment a little bit on EUV average selling prices, which are quite firm over the past couple of quarters. So should we expect this firmness going forward as well in the first half? I suppose you have seen an uptick in the second half with the new model shipping. So if you could maybe comment on that a little bit.

我是法國興業銀行的亞歷克斯。我只有 2 個問題。一個是 - 如果您可以對 EUV 平均售價進行一些評論，該售價在過去幾個季度中相當穩定。那麼，我們是否應該期待這種堅挺在上半年繼續延續？我想你已經看到下半年新車型的出貨量上升。所以如果你能對此發表一點評論的話。

And then just secondly, the R&D to sales is a bit higher than your longer-term targets. So at what point in time do you think we should...

其次，研發與銷售的比率比你們的長期目標高一些。那麼您認為我們應該在什麼時候…

What...

什麼...

R&D to sales...

研發到銷售...

Oh, R&D to sales? Okay.

哦，從研發到銷售？好的。

Yes. Yes, R&D intensity, is that going to decline maybe once High-NA is shipping or even before? Just to sort of know what time frame that could decline a little bit?

是的。是的，研發強度是否會在 High-NA 出貨後甚至更早的時候下降？只是想了解在什麼時間範圍內可能會略有下降？

Yes. That's fine. So you are right. I mean the ASP this quarter, but also in Q3 was a little higher than what you typically have in your models. But it is, as we also explained on Q3, to a very -- it is really driven by configuration. So what options are on the tool already when they leave the factory and specific customer requirements. So that's what drives it. And the composition that we have for the EUV sales, both in Q3 and Q4 were kind of the richer configurations as a result of which you saw the higher number in there.

是的。沒關係。所以你是對的。我的意思是本季的平均售價，以及第三季的平均售價都比你們模型中的通常售價略高。但正如我們在第三季所解釋的那樣，它實際上是由配置驅動的。那麼，工具出廠時已經具備哪些選項以及具體的客戶要求。這就是驅動它的原因。我們在第三季和第四季的 EUV 銷售組成都是更豐富的配置，因此你會看到其中的數字更高。

On go-forward basis for the 3600D, I think we mentioned there that you should look at mid-teens in terms of increase over the ASP for -- in comparison to the C model.

關於 3600D 的未來發展，我想我們曾提到過，與 C 型號相比，您應該關注 ASP 的增長幅度在十幾歲左右。

In terms of your question on R&D, you are right. I think R&D as a percentage of sales is comparable to where we were last year, actually, so it's high 15s, approaching 16. It's a little lower actually than what we had in 2019. As Peter and I already mentioned in the -- in earlier comments, there is so much opportunity that we see in the road map, and this is both low-Na, High-NA. But also and Peter made reference to that, a number of developments that we're having in terms of DPV and the throughput, imaging and overlay potential that we still see there. There's a lot of potential that we see. And that's why we keep the -- keep it a little bit higher than the 13% than some of you might have in your mind. That is still clearly the goal for 2025. So we're working our way towards that. But at this stage, we believe the company's value has increased by spending this amount.

關於研發的問題，您說得對。我認為研發佔銷售額的百分比實際上與去年的水平相當，因此達到了 15% 左右，接近 16%。實際上，它比 2019 年的水平略低。正如彼得和我之前在評論中提到的那樣，我們在路線圖中看到了很多機會，既有低NA，也有高NA。但 Peter 也提到，我們在 DPV 以及吞吐量、成像和覆蓋潛力方面取得了許多進展。我們看到了巨大的潛力。這就是為什麼我們將其保持在略高於 13% 的水平，這可能比你們有些人心中的預期要高一些。這顯然仍是 2025 年的目標。所以我們正在努力實現這一目標。但就目前階段而言，我們相信透過花費這筆資金，公司的價值已經上升。

So I think the approaching 16% that we saw for this year and maybe also for next year would still be appropriate. But then from that point onwards, gradually model it towards the 13% for 2025. I think that's the way I would do it.

因此我認為，今年以及明年接近 16% 的成長率仍然是合適的。但從那時起，逐漸將其模型設定為 2025 年的 13%。我想這就是我要做的事。

And you also need to remember that we do these R&D investments, particularly for DPV, where we have underestimated the size of that market and also the need for DPV tools, bringing them on to the NXT platform, which is quite a significant R&D program. But once we do that, and we see a significant increase in DPV demand, which we think will last. Then we give our customers the capability to actually have a very productive tool with a lower cost per wafer competitiveness, yes, which, of course, drives a higher sales price. So these are investments we -- and actually going back to an earlier question on the 2025 model, where we're doing things today because we see upside to that model and especially in DPV, for instance, and to give you 1 example, yes?

您還需要記住，我們進行了這些研發投資，特別是針對 DPV 的投資，我們低估了該市場的規模以及對 DPV 工具的需求，並將它們引入 NXT 平台，這是一個相當重要的研發項目。但一旦我們這樣做，我們就會看到 DPV 需求顯著增加，我們認為這種情況將會持續下去。然後，我們讓客戶能夠擁有非常有效率的工具，並且具有較低的每晶圓成本競爭力，是的，這當然會推動更高的銷售價格。所以這些都是我們的投資——實際上回到之前關於 2025 模型的問題，我們今天這樣做是因為我們看到了該模型的優勢，特別是在 DPV 方面，舉個例子，是嗎？

Next question is from Mr. David Mulholland.

下一個問題來自大衛·穆赫蘭先生。

It's David from UBS. I just wanted to come back on the change that happened in terms of your plans and your build through the supply chain for this year or for 2021. Because my understanding previously was you were willing to essentially bear the cost on your own balance sheet if demand didn't end up reaching the 45 to 50. So I'd love to understand what changed because it seems like that's potentially not constraining the outlook for this year. And then secondly, on cash flow, very strong quarter, obviously, in cash generation in Q4. Was there any -- was that all just pure cash coming in the door from customers? Or was there any seller receivables like we saw a few years ago?

我是瑞銀的戴維。我只是想回顧一下你們今年或 2021 年的計畫和供應鏈建設方面所發生的變化。因為我之前的理解是，如果需求最終沒有達到 45 到 50，你就願意在自己的資產負債表上承擔成本。所以我很想了解到底發生了什麼變化，因為這似乎可能不會限制今年的前景。其次，就現金流而言，第四季的現金產生量顯然非常強勁。有沒有──這些都是顧客的純現金嗎？或者是否存在像我們幾年前看到的賣方應收款？

Well, to answer the first question, David. You might go back to the conference call script, but we never said that we were going to commit ourselves in the supply chain to 45 to 50 units, we -- actually, we said we were not going to do that. We said, we are taking as a bit of a buffer above what our customers at that time, the end of Q3, said that they would need for 2021, which is a lower number than we're currently planning to ship, yes? So we did take that buffer into consideration. Yes, can we squeeze out another 1 or 2? Probably. But we never indicated or we never meant to indicate that we would cover our customers for our full capacity. That's not what we said. And this is not what we did.

好吧，回答第一個問題，大衛。您可能會回顧電話會議腳本，但我們從未說過我們會在供應鏈中承諾 45 到 50 個單位，我們 - 實際上，我們說過我們不會這樣做。我們說，我們正在為當時（第三季末）客戶所說的 2021 年所需的數量留出一點緩衝空間，這個數量低於我們目前計劃的出貨量，對嗎？所以我們確實考慮到了那個緩衝區。是的，我們可以再擠出 1 或 2 個嗎？大概。但我們從未表示過，或從未打算表示我們將盡全力覆蓋我們的客戶。我們不是這麼說的。但這並不是我們所做的。

So what we actually -- we're probably ending up somewhere in between, yes? Which is good because if we wouldn't have done that, then there would not be a 30% increase in our DPV -- or sorry, in our EUV planned revenue for this year. We are able to do that because we built this buffer capacity in the supply chain, but not everything.

那麼我們實際上——我們可能最終會處於兩者之間的某個位置，對嗎？這很好，因為如果我們不這樣做，那麼我們的 DPV 就不會增加 30%——或者抱歉，我們今年的 EUV 計畫收入就不會增加 30%。我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們在供應鏈中建立了這種緩衝能力，但並非全部。

David, on the free cash flow, as we mentioned on the previous call, this is the year where you see 2 effects in that regard. So on the one hand, you see the effect of extended payments that some customers were entitled to, based on all the contracts. And you see the effect under the newer contracts of down payments that are coming in. And they balance out nicely. Although in Q4, we saw most of the effect of the down payments. And in the earlier quarters, you saw the effect of the standard payments. But for the year, it's nicely equaled out. So that's in fact what you see. So very, very strong free cash flow in Q4, making up for some of the things in the previous quarters.

大衛，關於自由現金流，正如我們在上次電話會議上提到的，今年你將會看到這方面的兩個影響。因此，一方面，你會看到根據所有合同，一些客戶有權獲得延期付款的效果。並且您可以看到新簽訂的首付款合約所產生的效果。而且它們之間達到了很好的平衡。儘管在第四季度，我們看到了首付款的大部分效果。在前幾個季度，您已經看到了標準付款的效果。但就今年而言，情況已經基本平衡。事實上這就是你所看到的。因此，第四季度的自由現金流非常非常強勁，彌補了前幾季的一些不足。

To your question, is there an anomaly in there? Not really an anomaly, just as we had it in previous year, there was some customers choose a factoring solution for some of the payments and some of the down payments, but that -- on their request, but that's their discretion and their request doesn't impact us whatsoever. But that hasn't really changed, I would say, as a policy from last year. And I think the anomaly, if you like, that I just talked about, I think it's really something that we had in 2020. For 2021, I would expect a more regular buildup of the free cash flow also over the quarters.

對於您的問題，那裡是否有異常？這並不是什麼異常，就像我們去年遇到的情況一樣，有些客戶選擇為部分付款和部分首付款採用保理解決方案，但這是根據他們的要求，但這是他們的自由裁量權，他們的要求不會對我們產生任​​何影響。但我想說，作為一項去年的政策，這並沒有真正改變。我認為，如果你願意的話，我剛才談到的異常現象，實際上是我們在 2020 年遇到的。對於 2021 年，我預計自由現金流在各個季度中也會更加規律地成長。

Next question is from Janardan Menon.

下一個問題來自 Janardan Menon。

It's Janardan from Liberum. I just wanted to go to your gross margin guidance where you said that you are likely to be hitting the high end of your 48% to 50% range. But since you're doing a midpoint of 50.5% in Q1, and you will have the 3600D shipping in the second half of the year, which is a corporate average gross margin, which presumably is close to 50%. I'm just wondering what is holding you back from getting to a north of 50% margin for the full year. Is there something specifically in Q2, which could lower that? And also, I would put it in the mix, presumably your DUV shipments are going to be quite strong this year, which should also have a positive effect on that.

我是 Liberum 的 Janardan。我只是想了解您的毛利率指導，您說您的毛利率可能會達到 48% 至 50% 的高端。但由於第一季的中點為 50.5%，而 3600D 將在下半年出貨，因此這是企業平均毛利率，大概接近 50%。我只是想知道是什麼阻礙了您全年實現 50% 以上的利潤率。Q2 中是否存在一些具體因素可以降低這一數字？此外，我想說，今年你們的 DUV 出貨量可能會非常強勁，這也應該會對此產生正面的影響。

Well, first off, we shouldn't forget that there is a very strong improvement over gross margin if you compare it year-on-year, right? So let's not forget that. As I mentioned to you, of the 48.6%, you should start by deducting 1%, you get to 47.6%. That's really the starting point for the year. So even if I say that we're approaching the 50%, I think that's a very strong improvement over last year.

嗯，首先，我們不應該忘記，如果與去年同期相比，毛利率會有非常強勁的提高，對嗎？所以我們不要忘記這一點。正如我向您提到的，在 48.6% 中，您應該先扣除 1%，然後達到 47.6%。這確實是今年的起點。因此，即使我說我們已經接近 50%，我認為這比去年有了非常強勁的進步。

If you then say what is going to be different in the next quarters? To a very large extent, it's mix, right? So in Q1, we have quite some immersion sales. And as you know, immersion has a very strong gross margin. We have more immersion sales in there, relatively speaking. We have relatively low EUV sales in there. So while you're right that the gross margin per tool in the second half on the 3600D is going to be a bit bigger, I think it's also fair to say that in the second half we'll see more EUV sales relatively speaking than you have in Q1. So in that way, it kind of creates an equilibrium there.

那您說下個季度會有什麼不同呢？在很大程度上，它是混合的，對嗎？因此，在第一季度，我們有相當多的沉浸式銷售。眾所周知，沉浸式體驗的毛利率非常高。相對而言，我們在那裡有更多的沉浸式銷售。我們在那裡的 EUV 銷售額相對較低。因此，雖然您說得對，下半年 3600D 的每台工具的毛利率會更高一些，但我認為也可以公平地說，下半年我們會看到 EUV 的銷量相對第一季度有所增加。這樣一來，它就在那裡創造了一種平衡。

I think it's also fair to say, when I say approaching the upper limit, approaching the 50%. When Peter talks about potential, the potential over the 15.7, I think it is fair to say that the potential that we see there, as Peter mentioned, is in DPV and in Logic. So that would lead to a further uplift of the gross margin. So it's 50% that I was -- I think we're approaching is for the 15.7 indication that we gave or expectation that we articulated in terms of sales. If we're going to see sales uptick, I think there should also be an uptick in the gross margin percentage.

我認為，當我說接近上限、接近 50% 時，這樣說也是公平的。當彼得談到潛力，即 15.7 以上的潛力時，我認為可以公平地說，正如彼得所提到的，我們在那裡看到的潛力是在 DPV 和邏輯中。這將進一步提高毛利率。所以我認為我們的銷售額正在接近我們給出的 15.7 的預期或預期的 50%。如果我們看到銷售額上升，我認為毛利率也應該上升。

Yes.

是的。

Understood. Can I just -- got a brief follow-up on that. Just on the potential upside for this year that you talked about. You said it's all coming from, if it does come, it's DUV and from Logic. Is that entirely the China sort of geopolitical upside that you're talking about? Or is there potential upside outside of that? And normally, when Memory prices are going up, in past cycles, we've seen that the memory vendor, the DRAM vendors tend to increase their orders as well. If they were to come out with additional DUV orders, would you have the capacity to meet that demand? Do you have sufficient buffer there, if that were to happen?

明白了。我可以就此做一個簡短的跟進嗎？就您談到的今年的潛在上漲潛力而言。你說這一切都來自，如果它確實來自，那就是 DUV 和邏輯。這就是您所談論的中國地緣政治優勢嗎？或者除此之外還有其他潛在的好處嗎？通常，當記憶體價格上漲時，在過去的周期中，我們看到記憶體供應商、DRAM 供應商也傾向於增加訂單。如果他們下達額外的 DUV 訂單，你們有能力滿足這項需求嗎？如果發生這種情況，您是否有足夠的緩衝？

Yes. I think we would be able to deal with some of the additional demand in Memory, and you are right. I mean you've been around, Janardan, even longer than I am. So I mean you know how that goes. So yes, we would be able to do that. How much, it would be difficult at this moment in time, we're January '20, we're talking about, and we're trying to guess the entire year. So yes, I think we'll be able to do that.

是的。我認為我們能夠處理記憶體方面的一些額外需求，你是對的。我的意思是，賈納丹，你在這裡的時間甚至比我還長。所以我的意思是你知道這是怎麼回事。是的，我們可以做到這一點。目前，這很難說有多少，我們正在談論 20 年 1 月，並且試圖猜測全年的情況。是的，我認為我們能夠做到這一點。

The upside that we were referring to is DPV Logic. That is where the very large part is upside in China. Which like I said, if we can ship under the current rules, then that upside would materialize, yes? And which would have the impact on the top line and on the gross margin, as Roger mentioned. So yes, I think we will be able to do that. So there's some upside on Memory if they would come. And it would be DPV, to your point.

我們所指的優勢是 DPV Logic。這就是中國的巨大優勢。就像我說的，如果我們能夠按照現行規則發貨，那麼這種好處就會實現，對嗎？正如羅傑所提到的，這將對營業收入和毛利率產生影響。是的，我認為我們能夠做到這一點。因此，如果他們來的話，Memory 將會有一些好處。正如您所說，這將是 DPV。

All right. Okay. We have run out of time. So if you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML investor relations department with your question.

好的。好的。我們的時間已經不夠了。因此，如果您無法接通本次電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。

Before we sign off, I'd like to remind you that -- remind everyone that we are targeting to host our Investor Day on June 23 this year in London. Now we hope we can have a face-to-face meeting. But of course, this will depend on the progress against the virus. We will provide more details in due time, and we hope you'll be able to join us.

在我們結束之前，我想提醒大家，我們計劃在今年 6 月 23 日在倫敦舉辦投資者日。現在我們希望能夠進行面對面的會談。但當然，這將取決於對抗病毒的進展。我們將及時提供更多詳細信息，希望您能加入我們。

Now on behalf of ASML, I would like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thank you.

現在，我謹代表 ASML 感謝大家今天的參加。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Thank you, sir. This concludes the ASML 2020 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝您，先生。ASML 2020 年第四季及全年財務業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。