艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2020 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on October 14, 2020. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to -- for a moment, I would now like to open the question and answer queue. (Operator Instructions)

感謝各位耐心等候。歡迎參加 ASML 於 2020 年 10 月 14 日舉行的 2020 年第三季財務業績電話會議。（接線員指示）我現在想要——先暫時——開放問答佇列。（接線員指示）

I would now like to hand the call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把電話交給 Skip Miller 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2020 third quarter results. The length of this call will be 30 to 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the internet at asml.com. The transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

謝謝，接線員。各位好，歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資人關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink，以及財務長 Roger Dassen。本次電話會議的主題是 ASML 2020 年第三季業績。本次會議時間約 30 至 60 分鐘，並將依收到問題的順序進行提問。本次電話會議也將透過 asml.com 進行網路直播。管理層開場致詞的逐字稿以及本次會議的重播，將在會議結束後不久於我們的網站提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，管理層在本次電話會議中的評論將包含符合聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險與不確定性。關於風險因素的討論，我建議各位查閱今日新聞稿與簡報中所載的安全港聲明（可於 asml.com 取得），以及 ASML 以 Form 20-F 提交的年度報告與其他向美國證券交易委員會申報的文件。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

接下來，我想把電話交給 Peter Wennink，請他做簡短的開場介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our Q3 2020 results conference call. I hope all of you and your families are healthy and safe.

謝謝你，Skip。各位好，感謝大家參加我們 2020 年第三季（Q3 2020）業績電話會議。希望各位及家人都健康平安。

Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide you with an overview and some commentary on the third quarter as well as provide our view on the coming quarters. And Roger will start with a review of our Q3 financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook. Roger?

在開始問答環節之前，Roger 和我想先為各位提供第三季的概覽與一些評論，並分享我們對未來幾季的看法。Roger 將先回顧我們第三季的財務表現，並補充對短期展望的評論；我則會在開場的最後，補充一些關於目前商業環境與未來業務展望的看法。Roger？

Thank you, Peter. Welcome, everyone. I will first review the third quarter financial results and then provide guidance on the fourth quarter of 2020.

謝謝你，Peter。各位好。我將先回顧第三季財務結果，接著提供 2020 年第四季的指引。

Net sales came in above guidance at EUR 4 billion, primarily due to additional EUV system revenue. We shipped 10 EUV systems and recognized revenue from 14 systems this quarter. For the 4 systems that shipped in Q2, but did not receive factory acceptance testing before shipment, we were able to complete customer site acceptance tests and recognized revenue this quarter, bringing the total to 14 EUV revenue systems in Q3.

淨銷售額高於指引，達 40 億歐元，主要是因為額外的 EUV 系統營收。本季我們出貨 10 台 EUV 系統，並認列 14 台系統的營收。對於第二季出貨但在出貨前未完成工廠驗收測試（FAT）的 4 台系統，我們已完成客戶端現場驗收測試並於本季認列營收，使第三季 EUV 營收認列系統總數達 14 台。

EUV system revenue this quarter was 66% of total system revenue, which is the first time EUV was higher than deep UV system revenue. This further confirms EUV has entered the realm of high-volume manufacturing and is an integral part of our core operational activities.

本季 EUV 系統營收占總系統營收的 66%，這是 EUV 首次高於深紫外（DUV）系統營收。這進一步證實 EUV 已進入高量產（HVM）領域，並成為我們核心營運活動不可或缺的一部分。

Net system sales of EUR 3.1 billion was again more weighted towards Logic at 79%, with the remaining 21% from Memory. The strength in Logic is driven by the high EUV revenue.

系統淨銷售額為 31 億歐元，仍然較偏向邏輯（Logic），占 79%；其餘 21% 來自記憶體（Memory）。邏輯的強勁表現主要由較高的 EUV 營收所帶動。

Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 862 million, showing continued strength in our service and field option business from the beginning of the year.

本季已裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）銷售額為 8.62 億歐元，顯示自年初以來我們的服務與現場選配（field option）業務持續強勁。

Gross margin for the quarter was 47.5%, coming in at the midpoint of our guidance, which is a good outcome considering the significant EUV revenue. On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 534 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 132 million, which was slightly better than guided. Net income in Q3 was EUR 1.061 billion, representing 26.8% of net sales, resulting in an EPS of EUR 2.54.

本季毛利率為 47.5%，落在指引中點；考量到顯著的 EUV 營收，這是良好的結果。營業費用方面，研發費用為 5.34 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政（SG&A）費用為 1.32 億歐元，略優於指引。第三季淨利為 10.61 億歐元，占淨銷售額 26.8%，每股盈餘（EPS）為 2.54 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended third quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 4.4 billion, which is the same level as last quarter.

接著看資產負債表。我們在第三季末的現金、約當現金及短期投資為 44 億歐元，與上季相同。

Moving to the order book. Q3 system bookings came in at EUR 2.9 billion, including EUR 595 million for EUV systems. We saw some EUV demand reduction due to a delay in customers' node timing, resulting in a net booking of 4 EUV systems. Order intake was largely driven by Logic with 86% of bookings and Memory the remaining 14%.

再來看訂單。第三季系統接單金額為 29 億歐元，其中 EUV 系統為 5.95 億歐元。由於客戶節點時程延後，我們看到部分 EUV 需求下修，導致 EUV 淨接單為 4 台。訂單主要由邏輯帶動，占接單的 86%，記憶體占其餘 14%。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the fourth quarter of 2020. We expect Q4 total net sales of between EUR 3.6 billion and EUR 3.8 billion. We expect our Q4 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 900 million, which is driven by strong demand for field upgrades and growing service revenue with an increasing contribution from EUV service.

接下來談我們對 2020 年第四季的預期。我們預期第四季總淨銷售額介於 36 億至 38 億歐元。我們預期第四季已裝機基礎管理銷售額約為 9 億歐元，主要由現場升級（field upgrades）的強勁需求，以及服務營收成長所驅動，其中 EUV 服務的貢獻占比持續提高。

Gross margin for Q4 is expected to be around 50%, which is significantly higher than Q3, driven by higher immersion volume and improved deep UV product mix. The expected R&D expense for Q4 are EUR 550 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at EUR 140 million. Our estimated 2020 annualized effective tax rate is still expected to be around 14%.

第四季毛利率預期約為 50%，顯著高於第三季，主要由更高的浸潤式（immersion）出貨量以及更佳的深紫外（DUV）產品組合所帶動。第四季預期研發費用為 5.5 億歐元，SG&A 預期為 1.4 億歐元。我們估計 2020 年年化有效稅率仍約為 14%。

Finally, I would like to talk about capital allocation and working capital. As mentioned last quarter, we are in a transition period with customer contracts as we work to move towards new contracts with improved payment terms. We do see some of these new contracts starting to materialize and expect to improve our free cash flow generation in the coming quarters.

最後，我想談談資本配置與營運資金。如同上季所提到的，我們正處於客戶合約的轉換期，致力於推動採用付款條件更佳的新合約。我們確實看到部分新合約開始落地，並預期在未來幾季改善自由現金流的創造能力。

Interim dividend over 2020 will be EUR 1.20 per ordinary share. The ex-dividend date as well as the fixing date for the euro-U.S. dollar conversion will be November 2, 2020, and the record date will be November 3, 2020. The dividend will be made payable on November 13, 2020.

2020 年度中期股利將為每股普通股 1.20 歐元。除息日以及歐元兌美元換算的匯率確定日將為 2020 年 11 月 2 日，股權登記日為 2020 年 11 月 3 日。股利將於 2020 年 11 月 13 日支付。

Conditions in the COVID environment have improved around our ability to operate and our assessment of our supply chain. Taking this into account, along with our improving free cash flow generation, we will resume executing share buybacks this week, in line with the plans that we have communicated earlier this year for a total of EUR 6 billion over 3 years.

在 COVID 環境下，我們的營運能力以及對供應鏈的評估所面臨的條件已有所改善。考量到這一點，再加上我們自由現金流創造能力的改善，我們將於本週恢復執行庫藏股回購，並將依照今年稍早已對外溝通的計畫，在 3 年內合計回購 60 億歐元。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter.

接下來，我想把電話交回給 Peter。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, we had a very strong quarter with EUR 4 billion in revenue and good profitability, driven by strong growth in Logic. We expect Q4 to be a solid finish to the year in both sales and profitability. And in spite of added macro uncertainty in the first half of the year due to COVID-19, our view on growth this year is largely unchanged from what we believed at the start of the year. This is a clear reflection of our customers' drive to innovate and continue to invest in future technology nodes.

謝謝你，Roger。如 Roger 所強調，我們本季表現非常強勁，營收達 40 億歐元且獲利能力良好，主要由邏輯業務的強勁成長所帶動。我們預期第四季在銷售與獲利方面都將為今年畫下穩健的句點。儘管今年上半年因 COVID-19 帶來額外的總體不確定性，我們對今年成長的看法大致與年初的預期一致。這清楚反映出客戶推動創新並持續投資未來技術節點的動能。

In Logic, customers continue to see strong demand for advanced nodes, in support of the buildup of the digital infrastructure, which includes secular growth drivers such as 5G, AI and high-performance compute. And as we're still in the early stages of this digital transformation, we expect Logic demand to remain healthy and continue to drive demand for our products.

在邏輯領域，客戶持續看到先進節點的強勁需求，以支援數位基礎建設的擴張，其中包含 5G、AI 與高效能運算等長期結構性成長動能。由於我們仍處於這場數位轉型的早期階段，我們預期邏輯需求將維持健康，並持續帶動對我們產品的需求。

In Memory, customers are continuing to indicate that they're seeing healthy demand in data centers, with improving demand for consumer electronics. With customers’ expectations for higher bit growth next year and taking into account the longer lead times and qualification schedules for advanced litho, we are starting to see a recovery in lithography demand for DRAM, with strong growth expected in Q4 this year. Based on the continuation of this improving end market environment, we expect this Memory recovery to continue into next year.

在記憶體領域，客戶持續表示資料中心需求健康，且消費性電子產品需求正在改善。考量客戶對明年位元成長（bit growth）更高的預期，以及先進微影設備較長的交期與認證時程，我們開始看到 DRAM 微影需求復甦，並預期今年第四季將有強勁成長。基於終端市場環境持續改善，我們預期這波記憶體復甦將延續到明年。

Sales to China contributes -- continue to grow and accounted for 21% of our systems revenue this quarter. We expect sales to our domestic Chinese customers to grow to above EUR 1 billion this year, which includes sales to both Logic and Memory customers in China, with the mix skewed towards Logic this year but trending to higher Memory sales next year.

對中國的銷售貢獻——持續成長，本季占我們系統營收的 21%。我們預期今年對中國本土客戶的銷售將成長至超過 10 億歐元，其中包含在中國的邏輯與記憶體客戶；今年產品組合較偏向邏輯，但明年趨勢將轉向更高的記憶體銷售占比。

Regarding U.S. export rules to China, we are aware of the requirements set by the U.S. Commerce Department for specific companies in China and as such, according to the current regulation, ASML can continue to ship deep UV lithography systems from the Netherlands. ASML requires a U.S. export license for systems or parts that are shipped directly from the U.S. to the customers affected by the rules. While it is not our policy to comment on the individual customers, we aim to serve and support all of our customers around the world to the best of our abilities, whilst being, of course, compliant with laws and regulations set by the jurisdictions where we operate.

關於美國對中國的出口規則，我們已了解美國商務部針對中國特定公司所設定的要求。因此，依據現行法規，ASML 仍可從荷蘭持續出貨深紫外（DUV）微影系統。對於直接自美國出貨至受該規則影響之客戶的系統或零組件，ASML 需要取得美國出口許可證。雖然我們的政策是不評論個別客戶，但我們的目標是在遵循我們營運所在地司法管轄區所制定之法律與法規的前提下，盡我們所能服務並支援全球所有客戶。

On our Installed Base business, we still expect significant growth this year. Through the first 3 quarters, we realized revenue of around EUR 2.6 billion. And as Roger mentioned, we expect another solid quarter in Q4. Service business will continue to scale as our installed base grows with increasing contribution from EUV service revenue, as these systems run more wafers in volume manufacturing. We expect significant demand for upgrades as customers utilize upgrades to increase capacity and improve imaging and overlay performance required on future nodes.

就我們的已裝機基礎（Installed Base）業務而言，我們仍預期今年將有顯著成長。前三季我們實現約 26 億歐元的營收。正如 Roger 提到的，我們預期第四季也會是穩健的一季。隨著已裝機基礎擴大，服務業務將持續擴張；而隨著這些系統在量產中處理更多晶圓，EUV 服務營收的貢獻也將提升。我們預期升級需求將相當可觀，因為客戶會透過升級來提升產能，並改善未來節點所需的成像與疊對（overlay）效能。

On EUV, although our customers are still climbing the maturity curve, we continue to see increasing customer confidence in the technology, which is translating into expanding layer counts in Logic, initial deployment of EUV in Memory and increasing service revenue.

在 EUV 方面，儘管客戶仍在攀升成熟度曲線，我們持續看到客戶對該技術的信心提升，這正轉化為邏輯（Logic）製程中層數的增加、EUV 在記憶體（Memory）中的初步導入，以及服務營收的成長。

With 10 shipments this quarter, we have shipped 23 EUV systems year-to-date. With completion of customer site acceptance test and revenue recognition of the 4 systems shipped last quarter, we achieved a remarkable EUR 2 billion of EUV system revenue from 14 systems in Q3. We're still planning to manufacture 35 systems this year, but due to the pace of customers' node ramps and their fab readiness, a few systems may end up being shipped early next year. But despite this potential shift of shipments to early next year, we're still targeting EUV revenue to approach EUR 4.5 billion this year.

本季出貨 10 台，使我們今年迄今已出貨 23 套 EUV 系統。隨著完成客戶端現場驗收測試（site acceptance test）並認列上季出貨的 4 套系統營收，我們在第三季以 14 套系統達成了令人矚目的 20 億歐元 EUV 系統營收。我們仍計畫今年製造 35 套系統，但由於客戶節點爬坡速度及其晶圓廠就緒度（fab readiness），少數系統可能會延至明年初出貨。不過，即使出貨可能有部分移轉至明年初，我們今年仍以 EUV 營收接近 45 億歐元為目標。

We continue to drive profitability of our EUV systems and service business. We are on track to achieve at least 40% system gross margin, and we started to breakeven on service business this quarter. We will continue to drive margin improvement in both systems and service costs via cost reductions and delivering more value. And as we said before, we expect EUV margins to -- we expect EUV to reach margins comparable to deep UV margins over the next 2 to 3 years.

我們持續推動 EUV 系統與服務業務的獲利能力。我們正按計畫達成至少 40% 的系統毛利率，且本季服務業務已開始達到損益兩平。我們將持續透過成本降低與交付更多價值，推動系統與服務成本兩端的毛利改善。正如先前所說，我們預期 EUV 毛利率——我們預期 EUV 在未來 2 到 3 年內可達到與深紫外（deep UV）相當的毛利水準。

We are on track with our EUV cycle time reduction plan to get to 20 weeks by the end of the year, enabling a capacity of 45 to 50 systems. With respect to demand for next year, we currently have an EUV systems backlog of EUR 6.2 billion exiting Q3, with around 65% of this backlog planned for shipment next year. While we expect more orders in Q4, we did see some EUV demand reduction for next year due to a delay in customer node timing, which resulted in net bookings of 4 systems in the quarter. Although there is clear uncertainty due to the current macro environment as well as exact timing, slope of ramp and the ultimate size of the customer nodes, we currently expect EUV systems revenue growth of around 20% next year.

我們的 EUV 週期時間（cycle time）縮短計畫進展順利，目標是在年底前降至 20 週，從而使產能達到 45 到 50 套系統。就明年需求而言，我們在第三季末的 EUV 系統在手訂單（backlog）為 62 億歐元，其中約 65% 規劃於明年出貨。雖然我們預期第四季會有更多訂單，但由於客戶節點時程延後，我們確實看到明年 EUV 需求有所下修，導致本季淨接單為 4 套。儘管在目前宏觀環境下，以及客戶節點的確切時點、爬坡斜率與最終規模方面存在明顯不確定性，我們目前仍預期明年 EUV 系統營收成長約 20%。

In our deep UV business, we qualified the first NXT:2050i in Q3, which shipped early Q4. This immersion system is based on a new version of the NXT platform where the reticle stage, the wafer stage, the projection lens and the exposure laser all contain performance enhancements. With these innovations, the systems deliver increased customer value via improved performance in overlay and productivity and are, therefore, critical in support of their next node introductions.

在深紫外（deep UV）業務方面，我們於第三季完成首台 NXT:2050i 的認證，並於第四季初出貨。這套浸潤式（immersion）系統基於新版 NXT 平台，其光罩台（reticle stage）、晶圓台（wafer stage）、投影鏡頭（projection lens）與曝光雷射（exposure laser）皆包含效能強化。透過這些創新，系統可在疊對與生產力方面提供更佳表現，為客戶帶來更高價值，因此對其下一個節點導入至關重要。

To summarize 2020, in spite of macroeconomic uncertainty in the first half of the year, we see the year playing out quite similar to what we saw at the start of the year. We expect to end another strong year in Logic, Memory growth of over 30% and significant growth of over 20% in our installed base business. With this, we expect double-digit growth in both sales and profitability, leading to estimated revenue of at least EUR 13.3 billion.

總結 2020 年，儘管上半年存在宏觀經濟不確定性，我們看到今年的發展與年初所見相當一致。我們預期邏輯（Logic）將再度呈現強勁的一年，記憶體（Memory）成長超過 30%，而已裝機基礎（Installed Base）業務也將有超過 20% 的顯著成長。基於此，我們預期銷售與獲利皆將呈現雙位數成長，估計營收至少達 133 億歐元。

As we look to 2021, it's too early to provide a detailed guidance as we are working with customers to determine demand plans going forward. While there are still significant uncertainties, we expect another year of low double-digit growth, largely driven by our current view of expected EUV systems revenue growth of around 20%. There are a number of elements that will determine the degree of growth and uncertainty, of course.

展望 2021 年，現在仍太早提供詳細指引，因為我們正與客戶合作以確定未來的需求規劃。儘管仍存在顯著不確定性，我們預期將再度呈現低雙位數成長，主要由我們目前對 EUV 系統營收約 20% 成長的看法所驅動。當然，仍有多項因素將決定成長幅度與不確定性程度。

First is the macro environment because nobody can predict the global economic impact of COVID and how this will impact the end markets that we serve. On top of this, there is also the geopolitical environment, predominantly the U.S.-China dynamics, that creates additional uncertainty.

第一是宏觀環境，因為沒有人能預測 COVID 對全球經濟的影響，以及這將如何影響我們所服務的終端市場。此外，地緣政治環境——主要是美中動態——也帶來額外不確定性。

In Memory, demand will depend on bit growth next year. Customers seem to broadly believe the inventory issues will have been normalized by the end of this year and expect stronger bit growth in 2021. We currently see strong litho demand for Memory next year, which is consistent with customers' comments. However, the degree of growth will, of course, depend on continued technology transitions and how much capacity will be added.

在記憶體（Memory）方面，需求將取決於明年的位元（bit）成長。客戶普遍認為庫存問題將在今年底前回歸正常，並預期 2021 年位元成長更強。我們目前看到明年記憶體的微影（litho）需求強勁，這與客戶的評論一致。然而，成長幅度當然仍取決於技術轉換是否持續，以及將新增多少產能。

In DRAM specifically, we see support of this expectation through high utilization of our litho systems in the field at the moment. While we expect to see more EUV systems go to DRAM next year in support of 1-alpha node, Memory is still a key driver for our deep UV demand.

就 DRAM 而言，我們目前從現場微影系統的高稼動率看到了對此預期的支撐。雖然我們預期明年將有更多 EUV 系統導入 DRAM 以支援 1-alpha 節點，但記憶體仍是我們深紫外（deep UV）需求的關鍵驅動因素。

In Logic, we expect demand will remain healthy. However, final demand will depend on timing and the slope of node ramps, driven by the end demand curves. Customers are continuously recalibrating their road maps, leading to changes in their shipment requirements, which will likely have an impact on our demand next year. The other aspect of demand timing is around the slope of the node ramps. And this will be determined by how many wafers will move into each of the foundry nodes and is, as I mentioned before, a function of the health of the end demand next year.

在邏輯（Logic）方面，我們預期需求將維持健康。然而，最終需求將取決於節點爬坡（node ramps）的時點與斜率，而這又受到終端需求曲線所驅動。客戶持續重新校準其路線圖，導致其出貨需求變動，這很可能會影響我們明年的需求。需求時點的另一個面向在於節點爬坡的斜率，這將取決於有多少晶圓會移入各個晶圓代工節點；如我先前所提，這是明年終端需求健康程度的函數。

Lastly, on Installed Base business, we expect continued growth, but the degree of growth will be more dependent on upgrade businesses as service business is pretty predictable and grows with Installed Base.

最後，就已裝機基礎（Installed Base）業務而言，我們預期將持續成長，但成長幅度將更取決於升級業務，因為服務業務相當可預測，並會隨已裝機基礎而成長。

In summary, there are a lot of dynamics at play, both at the macro level, geopolitical level as well as market-specific circumstances. However, the ongoing transformation of the digital infrastructure, along with the secular end market drivers, such as 5G, AI and high-power compute, will continue to fuel demand for advanced process nodes, both in Logic and Memory, which drives the demand for our products. Therefore, although we are currently going through a period of near-term uncertainty, the long-term demand drivers only increase our confidence in our future growth outlook towards 2025.

總結而言，無論在宏觀層面、地緣政治層面，或市場特定情況上，都有許多動態因素在發揮作用。然而，數位基礎設施的持續轉型，加上 5G、AI 與高效能運算等長期結構性終端市場驅動因素，將持續推動先進製程節點在邏輯（Logic）與記憶體（Memory）上的需求，進而帶動對我們產品的需求。因此，儘管我們目前正處於短期不確定的時期，長期需求驅動因素反而只會提升我們對 2025 年前未來成長展望的信心。

With that, we will be happy to take your questions.

接下來，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，Roger 和 Peter。接線員將在稍後向各位說明問答環節的流程。（接線員指示）

Now operator, could you have your final instructions and then the first question, please.

那麼，接線員，請先給出最後的指示，然後請開始第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Mr. Krish Sankar.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 先生。

It's Krish from Cowen. I had 2 of them. First one, Peter, on the 20% EUV growth for next year in terms of revenue, what does it imply for units? Is it around 40? I'm just trying to figure out what the unit number would be for next year for EUV? And then I had a follow-up call?

我是 Cowen 的 Krish。我有兩個問題。第一個，Peter，關於明年 EUV 營收 20% 成長，這對出貨台數意味著什麼？大約是 40 台嗎？我只是想了解一下明年 EUV 的台數大概會是多少？然後我還有一個追問？

Yes. Krish, you need to understand, I mean, we always get this question on the unit numbers, but, at the same time, we always get the question on what -- why is the ASP in that quarter higher, lower. For instance, last quarter, it was like EUR 145 million, which was last quarter, the result of the specific configuration sets and repair, upgrades that were included in the shipments. So this ASP, because what you're asking is the number of units times the ASP, gives you the euro sales number. And this is why we just give you the euro number, yes? And it depends on the configuration and the richness, you could say, of the configuration that actually determines ultimately how many of those units we will ship.

是的。Krish，你需要理解的是，我們總是會被問到台數，但同時我們也總是會被問到——為什麼某一季的 ASP（平均售價）會更高或更低。舉例來說，上季大約是 1.45 億歐元，那是因為出貨中包含了特定的配置組合，以及維修、升級等項目。因此，這個 ASP——因為你問的是台數乘以 ASP 來得到歐元銷售額——也就是為什麼我們只給你歐元數字，對吧？而且它取決於配置以及你可以說配置的「豐富度」，這最終會決定我們實際會出貨多少台。

So we're not guiding any units. We just give you a euro number that we believe is going to be 20% up from this year, which is around EUR 4.5 billion this year. So I think it's going to be at least a 20%, as I think we've looked at the demand picture. I think we derisked it for some of the recalibrations of the nodes and the nodes timing, and we're coming up with that euro number. And I think going forward also, we will do that. Just like we do with deep UV and with the total company sales, we just don't tell you how many units we sell. We just tell you what we think how much euros we will sell.

所以我們不提供任何台數指引。我們只給你一個我們相信會比今年高出 20% 的歐元數字；今年大約是 45 億歐元。所以我認為至少會成長 20%，因為我們已經看過需求面貌。我想我們已針對部分節點重新校準與節點時程做了去風險處理，並得出那個歐元數字。我也認為未來我們會繼續這樣做。就像我們對深紫外（deep UV）以及公司整體銷售一樣，我們不會告訴你賣了多少台；我們只會告訴你我們認為會賣出多少歐元。

Got it. Peter, that makes sense. And then as a follow-up, on the DRAM side, clearly, you're seeing continuing strength from DRAM for deep UV. There were some concerns in the marketplace that the DRAM makers might scale back some of their near-term CapEx because of Huawei going away. Have you guys seen any of this nuance? Or just because of your long lead times, you're kind of agnostic to such noise?

了解。Peter，這很有道理。接著追問一下，在 DRAM 方面，很明顯你們看到深紫外（DUV）用於 DRAM 的需求持續強勁。市場上有些擔憂，認為因為華為退出，DRAM 製造商可能會縮減部分短期資本支出（CapEx）。你們有看到這種細微變化嗎？還是因為你們的交期很長，所以基本上不太受這類雜訊影響？

Yes. I think you know, we had this question on the impact of a potential drop of Huawei as a key customer for our customers. When Huawei doesn't sell those smartphones or the digital infrastructure, somebody else will. So I think that in itself is not going to be a driver. It can only be a short-term disruption in timing. Demand might fall away, it might move to somebody else, but that probably takes some time before it pops up. So I don't think that's a structural issue.

是的。我想你知道，我們也被問到過：如果華為不再作為我們客戶的關鍵客戶，對我們的客戶會有什麼影響。當華為不賣那些智慧型手機或數位基礎設施時，會有其他人來賣。所以我認為這本身不會成為驅動因素。它最多只會在時點上造成短期干擾。需求可能會消失，也可能轉移到其他人那裡，但在重新浮現之前可能需要一些時間。所以我不認為那是結構性問題。

No, I think we just need to look at what the situation is. We have got a push from our DRAM customers. We corroborate that push with what we see in utilization of our tools. And our -- the utilization of our tools is high. And it's grown, I would say, relatively gradually to this level throughout the year, yes? And I think if you then listen to our customer, they said, well, we think that the inventory situation will normalize towards the end of the year with a utilization position that we're currently seeing that is pretty close to what we think is kind of the maximum capacity, then it's not strange to conclude that they need more capacity next year, especially if you look at the demand coming out of the server business. And also, we have the uptick that we're seeing in consumer electronics. So all in all, that makes us more optimistic, together with our customers, on the DRAM business going forward.

不，我認為我們只需要看清楚現況。我們確實看到 DRAM 客戶在推動我們。我們也用我們設備的稼動率所看到的情況來佐證這個推力。而我們——我們設備的稼動率很高。而且我會說，今年以來稼動率是相對逐步地成長到目前這個水準，對吧？我想如果你再聽聽我們客戶怎麼說，他們表示，嗯，我們認為庫存狀況會在年底前趨於正常化；在我們目前看到的稼動率位置下，已經非常接近我們認為的最大產能，那麼推論他們明年需要更多產能並不奇怪，尤其是如果你看伺服器業務帶來的需求。此外，我們也看到消費性電子的回升。因此整體而言，這讓我們與客戶一起，對未來 DRAM 業務更為樂觀。

Our next question is from Mr. Joe Quatrochi.

下一個問題來自 Joe Quatrochi 先生。

It's Joe Quatrochi from Wells Fargo. Just back on the 20% EUV growth for next year, can you help us understand, is that assuming that a few tools slip from 2020 and are shipped actually in early 2021? And then secondly, on that, is there a scenario that as we get into January and you get better visibility, there's actually some upside drivers of that 20% growth, ex the systems that could potentially fall from 2020 into 2021.

我是 Wells Fargo 的 Joe Quatrochi。回到明年 EUV 成長 20% 這點，你能幫我們理解一下：這是否假設有幾台設備從 2020 年延後，實際在 2021 年初出貨？第二點，針對這個假設，是否存在一種情境：當我們進入一月、你們能見度更好時，這個 20% 成長其實還有一些上行驅動因素（不包含那些可能從 2020 年落到 2021 年的系統）？

Yes. That's a good question. Well, as we said, 2020, we always said about EUR 4.5 billion, which we stick to that. And then -- so the guidance of the 20% up from that EUR 4.5 billion, of course, includes all shipments that go from 2020 into 2021. You can draw the conclusion from that, that our forecasted ASP at the beginning of the year, i.e., the configuration richness, yes, that's been a bit better than we anticipated. We've seen that through upgrades, yes? So yes, that moves into next year. And that's why units, I said it on -- as an answer to the question of Krish also, units are not that important because it's -- really it's the ASP that can really vary because of the configuration. So we guide you euros. But yes, it will move into 2021.

是的，這是個好問題。嗯，正如我們所說，2020 年我們一直說大約是 45 億歐元，我們也維持這個說法。然後——因此，從這 45 億歐元再往上成長 20% 的指引，當然包含所有從 2020 年延到 2021 年的出貨。你也可以由此推論，我們年初對 ASP 的預測，也就是配置豐富度（configuration richness），確實比我們原先預期的要好一些。我們透過升級看到了這點，對吧？所以是的，這會延到明年。這也是為什麼我在——也在回答 Krish 的問題時說，台數沒有那麼重要，因為——真正會因配置而大幅變動的是 ASP。所以我們用歐元來給你們指引。但沒錯，它會移到 2021 年。

Now is there upside, that's your second question. I think what we have -- what we clearly said also in our prepared remarks that we have adjusted our demand picture based on the recalibration that has happened within the customer base on the node timing and on the ramp of that node. That, of course, happens first because we know that. But it's also like you have to look at this almost in a way of communicating vessels. What goes down also goes up at the other side. Now in a communicating vessel, it all happens at the same time, whereas there's a bit of a time lag between when you adjust downwards and when you see that demand later in time coming back up, that is the upside. That is not what we've put into our 20%, yes?

那麼是否有上行空間？這是你的第二個問題。我想我們——我們在事先準備的發言中也很清楚地說過，我們已根據客戶群在節點時程（node timing）以及該節點爬坡（ramp）上的重新校準，調整了我們的需求圖像。當然，這會先發生，因為我們知道這件事。但你也必須幾乎用「連通器」的方式來看：一邊下降，另一邊也會上升。只是在連通器裡，這些變化是同時發生；而在這裡，從你向下調整到你在較後時間點看到需求回升之間，會有一些時間落差，而那個回升就是上行空間。這部分並沒有被我們納入 20% 的指引中，對吧？

So you could actually say, we've taken all the information of today, taking into account all the uncertainties that we see, taking into account the node calibrations and this is what we'd actually tell you what we qualitatively see today, that there is upside is also clear. Because like I said, it's a communicating vessel, what comes down comes up somewhere. There's going to be time difference. And that's why we're preparing for a potential upside also in 2021. That's why we still talk about a build capacity that is higher, it's 40 to 45 systems, or is that 45 to 50 systems even, yes? And that's what we're organizing for in the supply chain, yes? So yes, there could be upside for the reasons that I just mentioned, and we're prepared.

所以你其實可以說，我們把今天所有資訊都納入考量，同時把我們看到的所有不確定性、節點校準都考慮進去，這就是我們今天能定性告訴你們的內容；而存在上行空間也同樣很清楚。因為如我所說，這是連通器：下來的會在某處上去，只是會有時間差。這也是為什麼我們也在為 2021 年可能的上行做準備。這就是為什麼我們仍然談到要建立更高的產能，可能是 40 到 45 台系統，甚至是 45 到 50 台系統，對吧？而這就是我們在供應鏈中正在安排與組織的事情，對吧？所以是的，基於我剛提到的原因，確實可能有上行，而我們也已準備好了。

Perfect. That's helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. On the low double-digit revenue growth for next year, how do we think about OpEx growth?

很好，這很有幫助。接著快速追問一下。對於明年營收低雙位數成長，我們該如何看待營業費用（OpEx）的成長？

OpEx growth. I mean on the SG&A side, I think it will continue to develop, as we've seen in the past quarter. So no major uptick there. On the R&D side, we are pushing down the accelerator quite a bit in terms of the programs, both on High-NA, also on EUV. I mean we're also obviously looking at and working on the successor of the D tool, which will have some demonstrable progress and value to our customers, which obviously requires quite some R&D work.

OpEx 成長。我是說在 SG&A 方面，我認為會如同我們在過去一季所看到的那樣持續發展，所以不會有什麼大幅上升。在研發（R&D）方面，我們在各項計畫上會相當程度地加速，包含 High-NA，也包含 EUV。我們當然也在看、也在做 D 工具的後繼機種，這會帶來一些可展示的進展與對客戶的價值，而這顯然需要相當多的研發工作。

And also on the deep UV road map, there's still quite something to be done. So there, we talked in the past about adjusting the number that you've seen for this year with salary increases. In fact, if we look at the magnitude of the program, it's probably going to be a bit higher. We're in the process of finalizing that right now because we're right now in the finalization of the budget. So more precise guidance, we'll be able to provide you with in 3 months' time. But I think it's fair to assume that the increase in the R&D budget will be a bit higher than just the salary uplift.

另外，在深紫外（DUV）路線圖上，仍然有不少工作要做。所以，我們過去談過，會把你們今年看到的數字，配合薪資調升做調整。事實上，如果我們看這些計畫的規模，可能會再高一些。我們目前正在把它定案，因為我們現在正處於預算定案的最後階段。所以更精確的指引，我們會在 3 個月後提供。但我認為可以合理假設，研發預算的增幅會比單純的薪資上調還要更高一些。

Our next question is from Mr. Sandeep Deshpande.

下一個問題來自 Sandeep Deshpande 先生。

It's Sandeep from JPMorgan. My question is regarding a couple of things. Firstly, you've already indicated that you've seen some pushouts, and you've reported a net EUV order intake in the recent quarter. I mean there has been a pushout from one of your customers, but then that same customer could place orders at another customer of yours. And so have you seen any movement on that front? Or do you expect to see movement on that front in the next few months?

我是 JPMorgan 的 Sandeep。我的問題有幾點。第一，你們已經表示看到一些延後（pushouts），而且你們在最近一季報告了 EUV 訂單淨流入。我是說，雖然有一位客戶延後了，但同一位客戶也可能改在你們的另一位客戶那裡下單。所以你們有看到這方面的任何動向嗎？或者你們預期未來幾個月會看到這方面的動向嗎？

And the question there which arises is that can you satisfy short-term demand? Because you've talked about in the past that EUV tools are 12-month lead time. So whether that sticks.

而這裡引申出的問題是：你們能否滿足短期需求？因為你們過去談過 EUV 設備的交期是 12 個月。所以這個說法是否仍然成立。

And my quick follow-up to that question is on the gross margin. You're indicating this 20% revenue growth number into next year for EUV, which is a good number. But clearly, I mean, it implies some amount of unit cuts because of this pushout from one customer. Does this have an implication on gross margin at -- for ASML next year on EUV from the 40%, so this progress from the 40% towards a much better EUV gross margin?

我對這個問題的快速追問是關於毛利率。你們指出明年 EUV 營收成長 20%，這是個不錯的數字。但很明顯，這意味著因為某位客戶的延後，台數會有一定程度的下修。這是否會對 ASML 明年 EUV 的毛利率造成影響——也就是從 40% 往更好的 EUV 毛利率邁進的進度？

Okay. So you guys are all squeezing 5 questions into one, which we haven't been a little bit prepared for. So Roger is going to answer that one.

好的。所以你們大家都把 5 個問題擠在一個問題裡，我們其實沒有完全準備好。所以 Roger 會來回答這個。

On your question of the pushout of the net 4 systems, have we then see other customers then stepping in? Well, it's a bit the story of the communicating vessels. And this is what you're asking, in fact, yes, which, by the way, is not retail. When you cannot get it with retail shop A, you move to retail shop B. It's a bit more difficult. Not so much for us because we could probably do that. But it's for the customers.

關於你問的淨延後 4 台系統，我們是否看到其他客戶補上？嗯，這有點像連通器的故事。而你其實就在問這個，是的。順帶一提，這不是零售：你在零售店 A 買不到，就去零售店 B。這要困難得多。對我們來說倒不一定那麼難，因為我們可能做得到；但對客戶而言比較困難。

If one customer adjusts their node timing, it takes time for others to see what that means and how that needs to be digested. So this is what I said in an earlier answer, yes, I see upside because there's a timing difference, if you think about the communicating vessels between things going down and the other part going up again. So I definitely see that. This is why we're preparing also to be able to ship more because to your point, if you would really only follow the order intake and then add 12-month lead time, it's never going to work. So you have to prepare for more because you would expect that there is a decent chance that you see some upside next year and you want to be ready. So this is where the 12-month lead time is actually -- it's -- the integral lead time is more than 12 months, it's more like 18 months.

如果有一位客戶調整其節點時程，其他人需要一些時間才能看清這代表什麼，以及需要如何消化。因此，正如我在先前的回答中所說，是的，我看到上行空間，因為存在時程差異；如果你把它想成連通器，一邊下降、另一邊又回升的那種關係。所以我確實看到這點。這也是為什麼我們也在準備能夠出貨更多，因為如你所說，如果你真的只看接單量然後再加上 12 個月交期，那永遠行不通。所以你必須為更多做準備，因為你會預期明年有相當機會看到一些上行，你也希望做好準備。因此，這裡所說的 12 個月交期其實——它——整體交期不只 12 個月，更像是 18 個月。

But if you then prepare yourself because you do expect this, then you could, of course, accept POs with a delivery time that's way within that 18 months. So yes, we are preparing for more. And time will tell whether customers need it in the time frame 2021. I think they could, but time will tell. There's a real opportunity there.

但如果你因此先把自己準備好，因為你確實預期會發生這種情況，那麼你當然可以接受交期遠短於那 18 個月的採購訂單（PO）。所以是的，我們正在為更多做準備。至於客戶是否會在 2021 年這個時間框架內需要，時間會告訴我們。我認為他們可能會，但時間會證明。那裡確實有一個真正的機會。

Sandeep, on the gross margin for EUV and then maybe a little broader than that. So on EUV, you're absolutely right. So the 3600D will see an increase in gross margin. And I think we have said in previous calls that we hope with the 3600D to approach the corporate gross margin. So an improvement over the 40% that we targeted for this year. And as we already said, we're probably going to even slightly exceed that target for this year. So yes, from that vantage point, there will be an improvement in the gross margin for next year.

Sandeep，關於 EUV 的毛利率，然後也許再稍微擴大一點。就 EUV 而言，你完全說得對。3600D 的毛利率會提升。我想我們在之前的電話會議中也說過，我們希望 3600D 的毛利率能接近公司整體毛利率。也就是相較於我們今年所設定的 40% 目標會有所改善。而且如我們已經說過的，我們今年甚至可能會略微超過該目標。所以是的，從那個角度來看，明年的毛利率會有所改善。

The downside on EUV is that in the gross margin for next year, you will also see that we already have some operating expenses for High-NA. That is a little bit accounting. And with the CEO and the CFO of this company both holding degrees in accounting, we say with a bit of pride. But the downside is that, even though we're not selling High-NA next year, we already have some operating expenses in there, which find their way into the cost of sales, and therefore, in the gross margin. And that, we assume, will be about a 1% reduction in comparison to the gross margin that we have this year, just to give you an order of magnitude.

EUV 的不利因素是，在明年的毛利率中，你也會看到我們已經為 High-NA 產生了一些營業費用。這有一點是會計處理的問題。而本公司的 CEO 與 CFO 都擁有會計學位，我們帶著一點自豪這麼說。但不利之處在於，即使我們明年不會銷售 High-NA，我們仍已經有一些營業費用計入其中，這些費用會進入銷貨成本，因而反映在毛利率上。我們假設，與今年的毛利率相比，這大約會造成 1% 的下降，提供你一個量級概念。

So a clear plus from the increased gross margin on the D. Also, an increase in the gross margin of EUV service margin that we talked about and then a little bit of a negative there. And then if you look at everything also into the deep UV business, for instance, that then becomes a little bit of the swing factor for next year. The mix in deep UV for next year and also the level of field upgrades.

因此，D 機型毛利率提升是一個明顯的正面因素。另外，我們談到的 EUV 服務毛利率也會提升，然後那裡有一點點負面因素。再者，如果你把深紫外（DUV）業務也納入考量，例如那就會成為明年的一個擺盪因素：明年 DUV 的產品組合，以及現場升級（field upgrades）的水準。

All in all, target that we had for -- or that we have for Q4 and also the target that we have a little bit moving forward to 50%, with all the pluses and minuses, we're probably going to be somewhere in that range of the gross margin that we had for this year, for the full year, and then the 50% target that we're envisaging. That's where you're going to find yourself in that mix with all the pluses and minuses that I just discussed.

總體而言，我們對第四季的目標——以及往前看、朝 50% 邁進的目標——在各種正負因素相抵後，我們的毛利率大概會落在今年全年毛利率與我們所設想的 50% 目標之間的那個區間。你會在我剛才討論的各種正負因素混合之下，落在那個範圍內。

Our next question is from Mr. Andrew Gardiner.

我們的下一個問題來自 Andrew Gardiner 先生。

It's Andrew Gardiner from Barclays. Just another one on EUV, please. Just in terms of some of the distinction over what you're seeing with customer plans for next year, I think we can all appreciate some of the, as you say, node, sort of, migration, recalibration. But in terms of the commitment to the technology, particularly by those who are leading the way in deployment, are you -- where are we in terms of EUV layers layer count looking to the next node sort of in 3-node relative to earlier expectations.

我是 Barclays 的 Andrew Gardiner。再問一個關於 EUV 的問題，謝謝。就你們看到的客戶明年計畫之間的差異而言，我想我們都能理解你所說的某些節點遷移、重新校準。但就對這項技術的承諾而言，特別是那些在導入部署上領先的客戶，你們——我們在 EUV 層數（layer count）方面，展望下一個節點、也就是 3 奈米節點，相較於先前預期，目前處於什麼狀況？

Peter, you made a comment that customers are more confident in the technology. So are you, even if ultimate capacity may be taking a little longer to ramp in terms of wafers, are you seeing the layer count continuing to creep higher? And so that's Logic, but also similarly, in Memory with DRAM press reporting one of your major customers visited you this week, talking about EUV and commitment there. So similarly around DRAM, where are we in terms of layer count expectations?

Peter，你提到客戶對這項技術更有信心。所以即使最終產能在晶圓（wafers）爬坡上可能需要更長時間，你們是否看到層數仍在持續往上增加？這是邏輯（Logic）方面；同樣地，在記憶體方面，媒體報導你們的一位主要客戶本週拜訪你們，談到 EUV 以及其承諾。因此在 DRAM 方面也一樣，我們在層數預期上目前處於什麼狀況？

Yes. I think on the layer count, I mean, it's clearly evidence given to us that the customers have embraced the technology, and that the technology gives a lot of advantages in simplification, in lower WIP, lower work in process, faster turnaround times in our R&D. So that's -- when you take it all together, then I think on N5 in Logic, we're over 10 layers; and in N3, we'll be over 20. And we actually see that creeping up. So -- and that has just a fact that it gives so much more advantage to go to single patterning and take away these multi-patterning deep UV strategies, which is also true for DRAM.

是的。我想就層數而言，客戶已經擁抱這項技術，這點對我們來說有很明確的證據；而且這項技術在製程簡化、降低在製品（WIP，work in process）、以及在我們研發中更快的週轉時間方面帶來很多優勢。所以——把這些綜合起來看，我認為在邏輯的 N5，我們已經超過 10 層；在 N3，我們會超過 20 層。而且我們確實看到這個數字還在往上爬。所以——這只是因為採用單次曝光（single patterning）能帶來更大的優勢，並且能移除這些多重曝光（multi-patterning）的 DUV 策略；這對 DRAM 也同樣成立。

Of course, DRAM is a bit behind in terms of HVM in introduction as compared to Logic. But also there, we see the same trend. And it's the process simplification that's actually driving the additional layers. And in DRAM, although we start with one, yes, we can see -- clearly, we can see strategies going forward 1-alpha and beyond that will add up to 5, 6 layers. And that's -- but it's really dependent also on how much productivity can we get out of the tools.

當然，DRAM 在導入量產（HVM）方面相較於邏輯稍微落後一些。但在那裡我們也看到相同的趨勢。真正推動增加層數的是製程簡化。在 DRAM 方面，雖然我們從 1 層開始，是的，我們可以——很清楚地看到往後 1-alpha 以及更後續的策略會增加到 5、6 層。但這也真的取決於我們能從設備中取得多少生產力。

You have to realize that customers are currently pushing us extremely hard to get more wafers out. I mean we are introducing EUV tools with more productivity, with more wafers per hour. We have the C version introduced. We're now looking at the D version. And beyond the D version, there's going to be another version with increased productivity. But today, when we have our customers' discussion, it's really a discussion about, could you please speed up the maturity of the tool, get your EUV tools at the same level of productivity and of reliability and uptime as you have your deep UV tools and they know it is going to take time because we need more EUV wafers. We need more. That is the consistent question that we are getting.

你必須了解，客戶目前正非常強力地推動我們提高晶圓產出。我的意思是，我們正在導入生產力更高、每小時晶圓數（wafers per hour）更多的 EUV 設備。我們已經推出 C 版本。現在我們在看 D 版本。而在 D 版本之後，還會有另一個生產力更高的版本。但今天，當我們與客戶討論時，真正的討論是：你們能否加速設備成熟度，讓 EUV 設備的生產力、可靠度與稼動率（uptime）達到你們 DUV 設備的水準；而他們也知道這需要時間，因為我們需要更多 EUV 晶圓。我們需要更多。這是我們一再收到的問題。

So -- and I think it's driven by the fact that they see the big economic and technical benefits of using EUV. And that will drive the layer count up, both in Logic and DRAM. And like I said, N3 of over 20 layers. So that is only creeping up.

所以——我認為這是因為他們看到了使用 EUV 的巨大經濟與技術效益。而這將推動層數上升，無論是在邏輯或 DRAM。就像我說的，N3 超過 20 層。所以這只會持續往上爬。

And just quickly, Roger, if I could just ask a follow-up to the prior question. When you talk about gross margin, I just want to make sure I was clear on what you were saying. You're saying gross margin for next year somewhere between the 2020 level, which, based on the guidance you've given us for 4Q is going to be around 48%. And the 50% that you're aiming for in terms of fourth quarter, is that right, somewhere sort of in that range?

另外很快地，Roger，如果我可以就前一個問題追問一下。當你談到毛利率時，我只是想確認我理解正確。你是說明年的毛利率會介於 2020 年水準之間——根據你們對第四季給的指引，全年大約會在 48% 左右——以及你們第四季所瞄準的 50% 之間，對嗎？也就是大概落在那個區間？

So that's right. So 48% is -- if you do the math and you take the 50% guidance that we gave for Q4, then you would probably see this year, for the full year and -- for the full year, you would see about 48%. What I'm saying is if you take all the pluses and minuses that we just talked about, you're going to be in that range for the anticipated gross margin for next year. Of course, more guidance on that, where the year is firming up, so more clarity on that in 3 months' time. But directionally, I think that's what you -- that's what you're looking at.

是的，沒錯。所以 48%——如果你計算一下，採用我們對第四季給的 50% 指引，那你大概會看到今年全年——就全年而言——大約是 48%。我想說的是，如果把我們剛才談到的所有正負因素都納入，你會落在那個區間，作為我們對明年預期毛利率的判斷。當然，隨著年度情況更明朗，我們會在 3 個月後提供更多指引、也會更清楚。但就方向性而言，我認為你看到的就是這樣。

And that's based on the, let's say, low double-digit growth as compared to this year. So any upside on additional business, of course, will have an impact on the margin profile. And as Roger said, we have to just have to take care of this accounting issue on High-NA, where we don't sell High-NA, but we simply cannot...

而這是基於相較於今年、假設有低雙位數成長。因此，任何來自額外業務的上行，當然都會影響毛利率結構。並且如 Roger 所說，我們必須——必須處理 High-NA 的這個會計問題：我們不銷售 High-NA，但我們就是無法……

[We've seen less for] than the growth volume.

[我們看到的低於] 成長量。

We cannot capitalize anything in inventory. We just have to write it off. So this is what is, which, by the way, will give us better High-NA margins once we start shipping High-NA.

我們不能把任何東西資本化列入存貨。我們只能把它沖銷。所以情況就是如此；順帶一提，一旦我們開始出貨 High-NA，這將讓我們的 High-NA 毛利率更好。

Our next question is from Mr. David Mulholland.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Mulholland 先生。

It's David Mulholland from UBS. I just want to follow-up on the comments you made around China, Peter. Obviously, it's clear you're still able to ship, particularly if it's out of the Netherlands, to particular customers. But for those that have been facing sanctions from everything we've read, are you assuming any shipments into those customers for 2021. Because whilst you may be able to ship yourself, obviously you face some indirect impact if they're unable to buy from some of the other semi cap equipment space. And then I've got a follow-up afterwards.

我是 UBS 的 David Mulholland。我想就你剛才關於中國的評論追問一下，Peter。顯然，你們仍然能出貨，特別是如果是從荷蘭出貨給特定客戶。但對於那些根據我們所讀到的資訊而面臨制裁的客戶，你們是否假設在 2021 年會對這些客戶有任何出貨？因為即使你們自己能出貨，但如果他們無法向其他半導體資本設備供應商購買，顯然你們也會受到一些間接影響。之後我還有一個追問。

Yes. I think it's a good question, David. When we talk to our Chinese customers, and you have to understand that when they look at some of the other process tools, there are some alternatives here or there. There's alternatives in Japan, when you talk about ALD or you talk about deposition tools. There's a European company, which is in Singapore, that can be an alternative. So on metrology, there are alternatives, both in the Netherlands and outside the U.S., in Japan and even increasingly in other parts of the world.

是的。我認為這是個好問題，David。當我們與中國客戶交談時，你必須理解，當他們看其他一些製程工具時，這裡或那裡確實有一些替代方案。談到 ALD 或沉積設備時，日本有替代方案。有一家歐洲公司在新加坡，也可能是替代選項。所以在量測（metrology）方面，無論在荷蘭或美國以外，在日本，甚至愈來愈多在世界其他地區，都有替代方案。

So if you're a Chinese company -- and there's one thing that the alternatives is more difficult on and that's on litho, yes? So you just want to make sure that you get your litho tools. And of course, companies that are on a list where under the current agreements, we cannot ship to, we will not ship to. I mean if there wasn't our agreement, that means our -- we just have to go for -- and we have to look at those lists, and we follow those lists. But currently, the customer that we've been talking about, our Logic customer, and one of the major Logic customers in China, actually allows -- or the rules allow us to ship litho tools.

所以如果你是一家中國公司——有一件事替代方案比較困難，那就是微影（litho），對吧？所以你會想確保你能拿到微影設備。當然，對於在名單上的公司，依照目前的協議我們不能出貨給他們，我們就不會出貨。我的意思是，如果沒有這些協議，那就表示我們——我們只能去——我們必須去對照那些名單，我們也遵循那些名單。但目前我們一直在溝通的那位客戶，也就是我們的邏輯（Logic）客戶、以及中國一家主要的邏輯客戶，實際上是允許——或規則允許我們出貨微影設備。

And it's for those Chinese customers very important to actually get their litho tools and then find a solution for the other process tools. But litho is critical. It's the most critical tool in your fab. So that's why it's not changed -- that's why it's not strange that they still talk to us and say, "Hey, just make sure that you ship us the tools that we need," because it all starts with -- in terms of CapEx, it all starts with the most expensive tool in the fab and that's litho.

而對那些中國客戶而言，能拿到微影設備非常重要，然後再去為其他製程工具找到解決方案。但微影是關鍵。它是晶圓廠裡最關鍵的設備。所以這沒有改變——所以他們仍然跟我們談、說「嘿，請確保你們把我們需要的設備出給我們」並不奇怪，因為一切都從——就資本支出（CapEx）而言，一切都從晶圓廠裡最昂貴的設備開始，而那就是微影。

That's great. And then just a quick follow-up. You've obviously said you're keeping the door open to more shipments potentially for next year, if you do see upside elsewhere. How long and how much balance sheet are you willing to keep that door open for? Obviously, you've got the funding to do it, but are you making customers commit by the end of this year? Or how long are you leaving that flexibility?

很好。那再快速追問一下。你們顯然說過，如果在其他地方看到上行空間，你們會為明年可能更多出貨保留彈性。你們願意在資產負債表上保留這扇門開著多久、以及到什麼程度？顯然你們有資金可以這麼做，但你們是否要求客戶在今年底前承諾？或者你們會保留這個彈性到什麼時候？

Yes. I think it's a good question. Of course, we try to push it. But on the other hand, and I know customers are listening into this call also, so I'm not doing myself a favor. So -- but part of the difference between the bottom-up numbers that we currently see under these risky -- under these circumstances that are of any more risk and our build capacity anywhere in between, yes, we're going to make sure that we have some extra leeway, some extra room. So we're going to go all out and trying to completely maximize our output between what we currently think in terms of units and that maximum number, somewhere in between, we're going to make sure that we will be able to react.

是的。我認為這是個好問題。當然，我們會試著推動。但另一方面，我也知道客戶也在收聽這通電話，所以我這樣講其實對自己不太有利。所以——但在我們目前在這些風險——在這些更具風險的情況下所看到的自下而上（bottom-up）數字，與我們可建置的產能之間的差距，對，我們會確保自己有一些額外的緩衝、一些額外的空間。因此，我們會全力以赴，嘗試在我們目前認為的出貨台數與那個最大數字之間，把產出最大化；在這兩者之間的某個位置，我們會確保我們能夠做出反應。

And like I said, I'm not doing myself a favor because customers are listening in. So it will probably take a bit of time before we get to PO. But if they need it, they will come, and we will ship.

而且如我所說，我這樣講對自己不太有利，因為客戶正在收聽。所以可能還需要一些時間才會拿到採購訂單（PO）。但如果他們需要，他們就會來，我們也會出貨。

Our next question is from Mr. Amit Harchandani.

我們的下一個問題來自 Amit Harchandani 先生。

Amit Harchandani from Citi. Two questions, if I may. My first question relates to the ramp on the Logic side for EUV. Could you give us a sense for where we are in terms of technological readiness, whether that is playing a part in terms of how customers are thinking about ramping, say, beyond the N5s towards the N3? Appreciate the demand dynamics is one factor. But if you could help us give us a sense for the overall technological readiness of the ecosystem.

我是 Citi 的 Amit Harchandani。如果可以的話我有兩個問題。第一個問題與邏輯端 EUV 的爬坡（ramp）有關。你能否讓我們了解一下目前在技術就緒度（technological readiness）方面的狀況？這是否會影響客戶對於爬坡的思考，例如從 N5 往 N3 之後的推進？我理解需求動態是一個因素，但如果你能幫我們掌握整個生態系的整體技術就緒度，將不勝感激。

And secondly, if I may, on a separate note, you have given us some perspective on contribution from China. Could you maybe quantify that and give us a sense for how derisked that number is? Or what's the puts and takes, if there was a potential change in U.S. legislation?

第二個問題，如果可以的話，換個主題，你們已經給了我們一些關於中國貢獻的觀點。你能否把它量化，並讓我們了解那個數字的去風險（derisked）程度如何？或者如果美國立法可能出現變化，會有哪些利多與利空（puts and takes）？

Yes. On that last part, Amit, I'm not speculating on the behavior decisions of governments because that's basically what it is. You cannot derisk. The only thing that you know, if you look at the current situation, you have to look at the specific situation that this company is in, in the geographical area that we operate in, which is Europe, yes, and the ability of us within the rules and the regulation to ship tools. That's what we're planning for, yes? Now there are a lot of powers at work, which are beyond ASML, and it's very difficult. I'm not going to speculate on what that is, what that upside is, what that down -- what a downside is. I'm trying to just deal with the reality as we see it today. And that's what we do. It's how we derisk or that's what how we look at the Chinese business, yes, which, of course, is just more than -- there are several customers there. We have 4, 5 major customers there. So I'm not going to speculate there because I don't know what governments are going to do.

是的。關於最後那部分，Amit，我不會去推測各國政府的行為決策，因為本質上就是如此。你無法去風險。你唯一能做的，是在看目前情況時，必須看這家公司在我們營運的地理區域——也就是歐洲——所處的具體情境，以及我們在規則與法規之內出貨設備的能力。這就是我們用來規劃的基礎，對吧？現在有很多力量在運作，這些都超出 ASML 的範圍，非常困難。我不會去推測那是什麼、上行空間是什麼、下——下行風險是什麼。我只是試著面對我們今天所看到的現實，這就是我們在做的事。這也是我們如何去風險，或我們如何看待中國業務，對吧？當然，中國不只是——那裡有好幾個客戶。我們在那裡有 4、5 個主要客戶。所以我不會在這方面推測，因為我不知道政府會怎麼做。

On the EUV, the technical readiness of EUV, it's technical-ready. The ecosystem on N5 and N3 is there. It's got to do it. It has to do with how quickly can we bring, for instance, the EUV maturity up to the maturity of our deep UV immersion tools, which in -- some of our customers are reaching 98% to 99% uptime. Well, we are not at 98%, 99% uptime. And it by the way varies. We have tools that are over 90%. We have tools that are under 90%. So it is the stability, which has to do with the maturity of the tools. So this is why our customers, in the discussions that we are having with them, are really saying, "Okay, first things, focus on the maturity of those tools," which we will do, which is normal. I mean this is a new technology and high-volume manufacturing, completely normal. We saw the same thing when we introduced dual stages. We saw the same thing when we introduced immersion. It's very logical. It will take some time before we get all the solutions on lifetime of parts all implemented in the field. That's not an issue, just customers want it faster.

至於 EUV，EUV 的技術就緒度——它在技術上已經就緒。N5 和 N3 的生態系也已經到位。接下來要做的是，例如，我們要多快把 EUV 的成熟度提升到我們深紫外（deep UV）浸潤式（immersion）設備的成熟度；我們的一些客戶在那些設備上已達到 98% 到 99% 的稼動率（uptime）。但我們目前還沒有達到 98%、99% 的稼動率。而且順帶一提，這會有差異：我們有超過 90% 的設備，也有低於 90% 的設備。所以關鍵在於穩定性，而這與設備的成熟度有關。這也是為什麼在我們與客戶的討論中，他們真的在說：「好，第一件事，先專注把那些設備的成熟度提升上來。」我們會這麼做，這很正常。畢竟這是一項新技術，要進入高量產（high-volume manufacturing），完全正常。我們在導入雙工作台（dual stages）時也看過同樣的情況；在導入浸潤式時也看過同樣的情況。這非常合理。在我們把所有關於零件壽命（lifetime of parts）的解決方案都在現場完成導入之前，還需要一些時間。這不是問題，只是客戶希望更快。

Why do they want it faster? Because their customers are just pushing them on more EUV wafers. That's what we see today. The only -- the key discussion that we're having with our customers, give us more EUV wafers, yes, and preferably, by improving the maturity of the tools faster, yes? And then on top, if the end market turns out to be okay, give me more capacity. And that's the order. So this is how it actually works. I have no doubts about the technological readiness at all. This was a question that I -- we could go into a lot of detail a couple of years ago, but not today.

他們為什麼希望更快？因為他們的客戶正在推動他們要更多 EUV 晶圓（wafers）。這就是我們今天看到的。唯一——我們與客戶正在進行的關鍵討論是：給我們更多 EUV 晶圓，對吧？而且最好是透過更快提升設備成熟度來達成，對吧？然後再加上，如果終端市場結果還不錯，就再給我更多產能。順序就是這樣。所以實際運作方式就是如此。我對技術就緒度完全沒有疑慮。這是我——幾年前我們可以深入很多細節的問題，但今天不是。

And Amit, if you look at typically the things that are being referred to in terms of readiness for the ecosystem, it's the typical list, right? So you're talking about mask and mask inspection. I think it's pretty clear that the technology is further developing there to cater to that. You're looking at pellicle and actually there, I think you've also recently seen some good breakthroughs in transmission, they are both for ourselves and also for some others.

Amit，如果你看通常在談生態系就緒度時被提到的事項，就是那份典型清單，對吧？所以你會談到光罩（mask）與光罩檢測（mask inspection）。我想很清楚的是，那裡的技術正在持續發展以滿足需求。你也會看光罩保護膜（pellicle），而在那方面，我想你最近也看到在透過率（transmission）上有一些不錯的突破，這不僅是對我們自己，對其他一些廠商也是如此。

Photoresist, which we all know is only -- is always going to be there. It's just that it's -- the massive development there will happen at a point in time where the whole thing is going into HVM. That's what you see. So on the typical elements there, you see that good progress is being made. And I think that's also echoed at the EUV conferences by our customers. And they show these slides where they talk about the progress in the ecosystem. And to Peter's point, if you look at that where they had their assessment 2 years ago, there was actually quite some amber and red on the slides. And if you look at the slides that are present today about the readiness of the ecosystem, the red is gone, and it's all green.

光阻，我們都知道它只會——它永遠都會在那裡。只是——那裡的大規模發展會發生在某個時間點，也就是整個事情進入 HVM（高量產）之後。你看到的就是這樣。所以在那些典型要素上，你會看到正在取得良好進展。我認為這也在我們客戶於 EUV 會議上的回饋中得到呼應。他們會展示這些投影片，談到生態系的進展。依 Peter 的觀點，如果你回頭看他們兩年前的評估，投影片上其實有相當多的黃色與紅色。但如果你看今天關於生態系就緒度的投影片，紅色已經不見了，全部都是綠色。

And you have to also -- there was just the advantage of being around for a little while. I mean we've seen this also when we did dual stages, when we did immersion, when you have a wavelength change, things are very different for our customers in their production process. And that needs to mature also. It's not only our exposure tool. It's everything that goes with it. It's the pellicles where we started with 82% transmission, now we have qualified 88%. And we have, like we said, there are in research institutes, the transmission that is far over 90%.

而且你也必須——這只是有一點「在這個領域待了一段時間」的優勢。我的意思是，我們在做雙工作台（dual stages）、做浸潤式（immersion）、或是波長改變時也看過這種情況；對我們客戶的製程而言，很多事情都會變得非常不同，而這也需要成熟。不只是我們的曝光機台而已，而是所有配套的一切。像是防護膜（pellicles），我們一開始的穿透率是 82%，現在已經完成 88% 的認證。而且如我們所說，在研究機構裡，穿透率已經遠遠超過 90%。

The same is true for -- like Roger said, for photoresist. This is very normal. It's very normal. The entire industry, the ecosystem is up, basically climbing a maturity curve. And that's going to be there with us for the next 1 or 2 years before it really starts hitting home on maturity levels that we saw with deep UV. It's just going to take a bit of time.

同樣地——如 Roger 所說——光阻也是如此。這很正常，這非常正常。整個產業、整個生態系基本上都在往上爬一條成熟度曲線。接下來 1 到 2 年它都會伴隨著我們，直到它真正達到我們在深紫外（DUV）時期看到的成熟度水準。只是需要一點時間。

Our next question is from Mr. Alexander Duval.

下一個問題來自 Alexander Duval 先生。

It's Alex from Goldman Sachs. You talked about the progression in terms of EUV models and how you continue to invest in that direction. And I wondered if you could talk a bit about the average selling prices. Effectively, where will they go up to on the D and E models? And is it fair to assume 50% of the mix in the next year is going to be coming from the D model? And when do we see the E model roughly enter numbers?

我是高盛的 Alex。你們談到 EUV 機型的演進，以及你們如何持續朝那個方向投資。我想請你們談談平均銷售價格（ASP）。實際上，D 與 E 機型的 ASP 會上升到什麼程度？另外，是否可以合理假設明年組合中有 50% 會來自 D 機型？以及大約何時會看到 E 機型開始有一定的出貨量？

So Alex, in terms of the ASP increase for the D, what we've indicated there is somewhere between 10% and 15% is a good estimate of the increase in ASP. You see -- in terms of productivity, you see a 19% increase in the productivity of that tool. And also in overlay, you see an improvement of 1.5 to 1.1. So some pretty good value that is being provided to the customer, which justifies the uptick in ASP that I just talked about.

Alex，就 D 機型的 ASP 提升而言，我們先前的指引是，ASP 上升約 10% 到 15% 是一個不錯的估計。你也看到——就生產力而言，該機台的生產力提升了 19%。另外在疊對（overlay）方面，你會看到從 1.5 改善到 1.1。因此我們為客戶提供了相當不錯的價值，這也合理化了我剛才提到的 ASP 上調。

On the E, that's quite a while out. So we're not going to -- we're not going to give any indications on the ASP development there. But as I said, there are some pretty significant improvements and value enhancements that are being planned on that tool. But more to talk about that when we're approaching the launch date of that.

至於 E 機型，那還要很久。所以我們不會——我們不會就那裡的 ASP 走勢提供任何指引。但如我所說，該機台規劃中有一些相當顯著的改進與價值提升。等我們接近其上市時間時，再來談會更合適。

On the D model and the composition of next year in terms of units. As we've indicated, we plan on really introducing the D model for HVM at the midpoint of next year. So that kind of gives you a bit of an indication of how the spread is going to be for next year.

關於 D 機型以及明年在出貨台數上的組成。如我們所指出的，我們計畫在明年年中把 D 機型真正導入 HVM（高量產）。這大致可以讓你對明年的分布有一些概念。

Our next question is from Mr. Mehdi Hosseini.

下一個問題來自 Mehdi Hosseini 先生。

Yes. Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna. I have 2 questions with a few follow-ups. It would be great if you could give us the mix of EUV upgrade that is embedded in the field option? And also, if you could give us an update on the multi-beam e-beam. I believe the beta tool was shipped early this year. What's the update? And how do you see acceptance into next year?

是的，我是 Susquehanna 的 Mehdi Hosseini。我有兩個問題，並有一些追問。若你們能提供 EUV 升級在現場選配（field option）中所占的組合比例會很有幫助。另外，也請你們更新一下多束電子束（multi-beam e-beam）。我相信 beta 機台在今年初已出貨。最新進度如何？你們如何看待明年的驗收（acceptance）情況？

Okay. Now the -- I don't think we're going -- we can give you, at least I don't have it, the mix between upgrades and the system price. Is that what you're asking, Mehdi? I mean...

好的。現在——我想我們不會——至少我手上沒有資料可以提供你升級與系統價格之間的組合比例。Mehdi，你問的是這個嗎？我的意思是……

I just want to understand...

我只是想了解……

Yes. So (inaudible) of our EUV sales, how much is upgrades business and how much is system business. Is that what you want?

是的。所以（聽不清）在我們的 EUV 銷售中，有多少是升級業務、有多少是系統業務。你想問的是這個嗎？

Yes. Yes, you have highlighted upgrade opportunities with the older models. And I want to see how much of that is driving -- is in the field option.

是的，是的。你們強調了舊機型的升級機會。我想看看其中有多少是在推動——也就是在現場選配（field option）裡的占比。

Okay. Okay. Yes, you have these -- you have different types of upgrades. You have an upgrade, like for instance, this is why ASP in Q3 was a bit higher. We've upgrades that are already included in the tool that we ship, so that is one. But you also have upgrades of tools that are in the field. And that depends on what upgrade do you want? Do you want an upgrade from a B to a C, that is a different upgrade than one you have a 3350 going into a 3400C. I mean that's almost like a complete refurb in the field. And that's significantly more expensive. And customers are looking at all of them. So it's -- there also, you have the mix of what kind of upgrade do you want? And you have 3400B upgrades, which actually are in the -- from a productivity point of view, that are in the midpoint between the original B and the current C. So this is also what you can choose. So it's very difficult to give you as a forward-looking outlook on what that is because it very much depends on the customer plans and on the capacity planning in terms of wafers per day.

好的，好的。是的，你們有這些——你們有不同類型的升級。你有一種升級，例如，這也是為什麼第三季 ASP 會稍微高一些：我們把一些升級已經包含在我們出貨的機台裡，這是一種。但你也有針對已在客戶現場的機台進行升級。而那取決於你想要什麼升級？你想從 B 升到 C，那是一種升級；而你把一台 3350 升到 3400C，那又是不同的升級。我的意思是，那幾乎像是在現場做一次完整翻新（refurb），而且成本顯著更高。客戶正在評估所有這些選項。所以——在那裡，你也會有「你想要哪一種升級」的組合差異。你也有 3400B 的升級，從生產力角度來看，它位於原始 B 與目前 C 之間的中間點。這也是你可以選擇的。因此，要以前瞻的方式給你一個展望非常困難，因為這很大程度取決於客戶的計畫，以及以每日晶圓數（wafers per day）為基礎的產能規劃。

So we're just going to give you the total number, yes, and -- when that happens. And these things, these update plans also change. I had a very recent discussion with a very large customer. Well, he really wants to look at an upgrade plan where there was different scenarios. Well, depending on how that scenario pans out, the upgrade revenue is going to be different than a lot of scenarios. So I wouldn't even dare to give you any guidance there because I would be wrong, yes?

所以我們只能給你總數，是的，以及——在何時發生。而且這些更新計畫也會改變。我最近才和一位非常大的客戶討論過。他確實想看一個包含不同情境的升級計畫。那麼，取決於情境如何發展，升級營收就會和很多其他情境不同。所以我甚至不敢在這方面給任何指引，因為我會說錯，是吧？

So the MBI, the multi-beam tool. Yes, I mean, we're going to ship another 2 beta tools this year. And like I said, it is really -- customers are going to use those tools, because not just the tool, it's also how do you integrate a multi-beam wafer inspection tool into your entire yield management process. And that will happen over the next half year to 3/4 of the year, and that will determine the uptake of that tool and the POs for that tool.

至於 MBI，也就是多束（multi-beam）機台。是的，我的意思是，我們今年還會再出貨另外 2 台 beta 機台。而且如我所說，這真的——客戶會使用那些機台，因為不只是機台本身，還包括你要如何把多束晶圓檢測（wafer inspection）機台整合進你整個良率管理流程。這會在接下來半年到 3/4 年內發生，而這將決定該機台的採用速度以及該機台的採購訂單（PO）。

So what we're seeing is that, at least that's what we believe, and we are now in the first integration phase of the first tool that we shipped last quarter, we just have to see that what we believe the advantages of a tool that is 6x faster, how much of that can translate into real deal value for the customer. That's going to be a bit of a wait and see, but we have people there, and we're optimistic. But ultimately, that optimism needs to be confirmed by the customer that starts putting in the POs. So you have to be a bit patient, Mehdi, on that news. So it's going to be another 1 or 2 quarters before we get some clarity on this.

所以我們看到的是，至少我們相信——而我們現在正處於第一台（我們在上一季出貨的）機台的第一階段整合——我們必須看看：我們所相信的「速度快 6 倍」這種優勢，有多少能轉化為對客戶真正可量化的價值。這需要再觀察一下，但我們有人在現場，我們也保持樂觀。不過最終，這份樂觀需要由開始下採購訂單（PO）的客戶來確認。所以在這個消息上你得稍微有點耐心，Mehdi。大概還需要再等 1 到 2 個季度，我們才會更清楚。

Our next question is from Mr. Aleksander Peterc.

下一個問題來自 Aleksander Peterc 先生。

This is Alex Peterc from Societe Generale. Just one on the balance sheet first. Could you now give us an idea of where we will land in terms of net cash for the year and what will happen with working capital in the fourth quarter, if you could quantify that for us?

我是法國興業銀行（Societe Generale）的 Alex Peterc。先問一個資產負債表的問題。你們現在能否給我們一個概念：今年年底淨現金（net cash）大概會落在哪裡？以及第四季營運資金（working capital）會發生什麼變化？如果可以的話，請幫我們量化一下。

And then just secondly, coming back to your comment, Peter, on the communicating vessels in EUV orders. So given the pushouts by one customer, is there a realistic scenario whereby we get a big jump then in orders as that node progression starts to materialize. You get then a very strong '22. Is that a realistic scenario? Or do you see things more smooth out in the future?

第二個問題，回到你剛才的評論，Peter，關於 EUV 訂單中的「連通器」效應。鑑於某位客戶把交期往後推，是否存在一種現實情境：當製程節點的推進開始具體化時，我們會看到訂單大幅跳升，進而帶來非常強勁的 2022 年？這是現實的情境嗎？還是你們認為未來會更平滑？

Aleksander, on free cash flow, we're not guiding free cash flow. I can tell you that there will be a very significant free cash flow generation in Q4 for a couple of reasons. One reason is the free cash flow generation this quarter was rather low. As a matter of fact, it was slightly negative. And one main reason there is that many, many tools shipped in the last month of the quarter, as a result of which the cash generation of that will fall into Q4. So there will be significant free cash flow generation in Q4. That's also the reason why we communicated that we will resume the share buyback, why we announced the interim dividend. So we're very confident on the free cash flow generation in Q4, but we're not guiding that.

Aleksander，關於自由現金流，我們不提供自由現金流的指引。我可以告訴你，第四季將會有非常顯著的自由現金流產生，原因有幾點。其中一個原因是本季的自由現金流產生相當低；事實上，還略為負值。而主要原因之一是，本季最後一個月出貨了非常、非常多的機台，因此相關的現金回收將落在第四季。所以第四季將會有顯著的自由現金流產生。這也是我們溝通將恢復庫藏股回購、以及宣布期中股利的原因。因此我們對第四季的自由現金流產生非常有信心，但我們不會對此提供指引。

Yes. And on your communicating vessels question, well, it actually was my introduction on the communicating vessel. But the question is, could that then give a big jump in orders because there's a time difference. And you basically asked the question, how big could that time difference be? And I know, like I said, we're preparing for more output in '21 because I think it could happen in '21. But you asked the question about what about '22? Well, you could say, well, we're in 2020 and so what do I know about 2022. But in the context of your question, I do believe that, in any case, 2022, we will see the effects of that communicating vessel movement. I think there's also an opportunity that it can be pulled into 2021. That's why we're preparing for more shipments and from a -- let's say, from a manufacturing and a supply chain point of view.

是的。關於你提到的「連通器」問題，嗯，其實那是我在開場時對連通器的介紹。不過你的問題是，因為存在時間差，這是否可能導致訂單出現大幅跳升。你基本上是在問：這個時間差可能有多大？如我所說，我們正在為 2021 年更高的產出做準備，因為我認為這在 2021 年可能發生。但你問的是 2022 年怎麼看？你可以說，嗯，我們現在在 2020 年，我怎麼會知道 2022 年。但在你問題的脈絡下，我確實相信，無論如何，2022 年我們會看到這種連通器移動的效果。我也認為有機會把它拉到 2021 年發生。這就是為什麼我們從製造與供應鏈的角度，正在為更多出貨做準備。

But more importantly, in 2021, I think we will see then the introduction of the next nodes in Logic and in DRAM. I think 2021, in any case, will be, you could say, the recipient of the node transitions. There will -- 2021 will be a year where you see another node transition happening, which, as we talked about, N3 will have all the 20 EUV layers. So that would then be on top of what I would see as a normal progression of the EUV volumes.

但更重要的是，在 2021 年，我認為我們將會看到邏輯與 DRAM 的下一代節點導入。我認為 2021 年無論如何都會是節點轉換的承接年。2021 年將會是你看到另一個節點轉換發生的一年；如我們討論過的，N3 將會有全部 20 層 EUV。這將會疊加在我所認為的 EUV 產能/出貨量正常成長軌跡之上。

Okay. We have time for one last question. If you are unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Now operator, may we have the last caller, please.

好的。我們還有時間再接最後一個問題。如果你無法在本次電話會議中接通但仍有問題，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資人關係部門提出你的問題。現在請接線員為我們接通最後一位來電者。

The final question is from Mr. Adi Metuku.

最後一個問題來自 Adi Metuku 先生。

It's Bank of America. I have 2 questions. First question, just on the assumptions you have embedded into your low double-digit growth guidance for revenue in 2021, can you talk about what you're assuming in terms of domestic Chinese demand? Secondly, also foundry plus Logic demand and Memory demand and services, just to get a sense for what exactly you're embedding.

我是美國銀行（Bank of America）。我有兩個問題。第一個問題是，關於你們對 2021 年營收低雙位數成長指引所內含的假設，能否談談你們對中國國內需求的假設？第二，也想了解晶圓代工加邏輯（foundry plus Logic）需求、記憶體需求以及服務（services）方面，你們到底內含了哪些假設，好讓我們掌握你們嵌入的內容。

And secondly, now there's been a lot of discussion in the market around how the number of customers at the leading edge could go down over the next few years. If you could give us some sense based on your discussions and any order trends, et cetera, that you might be seeing, how likely do you think that is, I think that would be much appreciated.

第二個問題是，市場上最近有很多討論，認為未來幾年先進製程（leading edge）的客戶數可能會下降。能否根據你們的討論以及你們可能看到的訂單趨勢等，給我們一些看法：你們認為這種情況發生的可能性有多大？若能分享將非常感謝。

Yes. Your answer -- so what do you want to know exactly, the number of customers in the leading edge? You mean -- are you asking a question on how are this trending?

是的。你的問題——所以你到底想知道什麼，先進製程的客戶數量嗎？你的意思是——你是在問這個趨勢如何發展嗎？

No, if you look out 2 to 3 years out, do you think the number of customers producing leading edge devices could go down. If not, how do you think about that? How do you think about that when you do your planning, et cetera?

不是，如果把時間拉到未來 2 到 3 年，你覺得生產先進製程元件的客戶數會不會下降？如果不會，你怎麼看待這件事？你在做規劃等時又是如何思考的？

Yes. I think on the...

是的。我想先談……

On the first question...

先回答第一個問題……

I'll take the second one.

第二個我來回答。

On the first question, Adi, I think it's -- we've given you the top line figure, both for the total business and for EUV. As Peter mentioned, of course, there are many -- there are quite some uncertainties that have been factored into that number and there are quite some swing factors going left and right. I think what we should do is, in 3 months' time, when we have a discussion on the full year's results, but also going to have our first real insight into next year, I think that's what -- what I suggest is that, at that point in time, we're going to talk about what are the main drivers.

關於第一個問題，Adi，我認為——我們已經給了你營收的總體數字，包含整體業務以及 EUV。正如 Peter 提到的，當然，這個數字已經納入了許多不確定性，也存在不少可能向左或向右擺動的因素。我認為我們應該在三個月後、當我們討論全年結果時——同時也會首次真正看清明年的情況——我建議到那個時間點，我們再來談主要驅動因素是什麼。

So at that stage, I think it would be good to say, just as we did at the beginning of this year, if we look at the different segments of the market, how do we look at those and what growth drivers do we see there. I think that's the way I would suggest we do that and leave it at the top line indications that we've given for now.

所以在那個階段，我認為就像我們在今年年初所做的一樣，如果我們看市場的不同區隔，我們如何看待它們、又看到哪些成長驅動因素。我認為我建議的方式是那樣；而目前就先維持我們已提供的總體指引不變。

Yes. And I think I will answer your 2 questions on domestic China. I think it's almost not relevant. It sounds a bit arrogant. But you have to realize that the Chinese customers in Logic and in Memory, they are in ramp. They have customers. All their wafers are sold. They go to their customers that put them into devices. So if for whatever reason that China business does not exist, those customers still need wafers, and then they will buy those wafers somewhere else.

是的。我想我會回答你關於中國國內需求的兩個問題。我認為這幾乎不太相關。這聽起來可能有點傲慢，但你必須理解，中國在邏輯與記憶體的客戶正處於爬坡（ramp）階段。他們有客戶；他們所有的晶圓都已售出，交付給把晶圓做成裝置的客戶。所以如果因為任何原因中國的這些業務不存在了，那些客戶仍然需要晶圓，然後他們就會在其他地方購買那些晶圓。

And I think where we just said, in Memory, for instance, in DRAM, we see the very high utilization towards the max. So where do those wafers come from, they need to come from added capacity somewhere. And I think this is, again, is a question of this communicating vessel. When one set of customers might not, for whatever reason, need those capacity tools, then another one needs it. And I think with deep UV, that time period is much shorter than with EUV. So I think that is -- it will resolve itself relatively quick.

而且我認為，正如我們剛才所說，例如在記憶體、以 DRAM 為例，我們看到非常高的稼動率、接近滿載。那麼這些晶圓要從哪裡來？它們必須來自某處新增的產能。我認為這同樣又回到「連通器」的問題：當某一組客戶因為任何原因不需要那些產能設備時，另一組客戶就會需要。我認為在深紫外（DUV）方面，這個時間週期比 EUV 短得多。所以我認為——它會相對快速地自行調整並解決。

Now on the customer, the number of customers in the leading edge, there's one thing that's absolutely certain. Things are not getting easier. The next nodes will see increased complexity. And I think only the very large customers can deal with that. We've seen over the last 20 years a significant reduction in number of leading-edge customers. And I think it's going to continue with less than a handful, less than a handful. And I'm not going to speculate who those are going to be because I -- they are all dear to my heart. And I think we have to figure it out who has the best designs, the best production technology with the most efficient and the lowest cost. But in the end, it doesn't matter. Because in the end, it's what we always talk about, is the number of wafers and devices and chips that are needed in the digital transformation that need to be made somewhere on the planet. And that means that I do believe that our large customers are going to be larger, and they're going to be dominant in areas of chip production, which are only going to grow.

至於先進製程客戶的數量，有一件事是絕對確定的：事情不會變得更容易。下一代節點將帶來更高的複雜度。我認為只有非常大型的客戶才能應對。我們在過去 20 年已經看到先進製程客戶數量大幅減少，我認為這個趨勢會持續，會少於一隻手的數量、少於一隻手。我不會去猜測會是哪幾家，因為——他們對我而言都很重要。我想我們必須看誰擁有最好的設計、最好的量產技術、最高效率與最低成本。但最後其實不重要。因為最終，正如我們一直在談的，是在數位轉型中所需要的晶圓、元件與晶片數量，必須在地球上的某個地方被製造出來。這意味著我確實相信，我們的大型客戶會變得更大，並且會在晶片生產的領域中占據主導地位，而這些領域只會持續成長。

It is why I said at the end of my prepared remark, our confidence in our 2025 outlook has only grown. As always, ultimately, you could argue also a bit as a result of what we've seen as a part of the COVID crisis how important this digital infrastructure is. So in that sense, yes, I think it will be fewer and fewer customers, but it will be much bigger than they are today.

這也是為什麼我在事先準備的發言最後說，我們對 2025 年展望的信心只增不減。一如往常，最終你也可以說，某種程度上也是因為我們在 COVID 危機中所看到的：這個數位基礎建設有多重要。所以在這個意義上，是的，我認為客戶會越來越少，但規模會比今天大得多。

Before we sign off, I'd like to remind everyone that due to COVID-19, we have moved our Investor Day to June 23, 2021. The event will be held in London, and we hope by that time, we can have a face-to-face meeting. More details will follow in due time. We hope you'll be able to join us.

在結束之前，我想提醒各位，由於 COVID-19，我們已將投資人日移至 2021 年 6 月 23 日。活動將在倫敦舉行，我們希望到那時能夠進行面對面的會議。更多細節將在適當時候公布。我們希望你們能夠參加。

Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

現在我謹代表 ASML，感謝各位今天的參與。接線員，若你能正式結束本次電話會議，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Thank you, sir. This concludes the ASML 2020 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝您，先生。本次 ASML 2020 年第三季財務結果電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛斷電話。