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Operator
Operator
Thank you for standing by. Welcome to ASML's 2020 First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on April 15, 2020. (Operator Instructions)
感謝您的耐心等候。歡迎參加 ASML 於 2020 年 4 月 15 日舉行的 2020 年第一季財務結果電話會議。(接線員指示)
I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.
現在我想將電話會議交給 Skip Miller 先生。先生,請開始。
Skip Miller - VP of IR
Skip Miller - VP of IR
Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2020 first quarter results.
謝謝,接線員。各位好,歡迎大家。我是 Skip Miller,ASML 投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink,以及財務長 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2020 年第一季業績。
The length of this call will be 60 minutes and questions will be taken in the order they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.
本次電話會議長度為 60 分鐘,並將依收到問題的順序進行提問。本次電話會議也將於 asml.com 透過網路進行即時直播。管理層開場致詞的逐字稿以及電話會議重播,將在本次電話會議結束後不久於我們的網站提供。
Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
在開始之前,我想提醒各位聽眾,管理層在本次電話會議中的評論將包含符合聯邦證券法意義之「前瞻性陳述」。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險與不確定性。關於風險因素的討論,我建議您查閱今日新聞稿與簡報中所載的安全港聲明(可於 asml.com 取得),以及 ASML 依 20-F 表格提交的年度報告與其他向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.
接下來,我想把電話交給 Peter Wennink,請他做簡短的開場介紹。
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our Q1 2020 Results Conference Call. I hope all of you and your families are healthy and safe.
謝謝你,Skip。各位好,歡迎大家,也感謝各位參加我們 2020 年第一季業績電話會議。我希望各位以及家人都健康平安。
And before we start our normal quarterly results review, I would like to first talk about the topic on everybody's mind, which is the COVID-19 pandemic and the situation. Well, these are unprecedented and challenging times and the COVID-19 pandemic affects all of us. Our primary goal at ASML continues to be to ensure, as best as we can that our colleagues and their families stay safe. Our second goal is to ensure that we continue to serve our customers and to secure the delivery of our product road map, including the continuity of our supply. We have been taking and continue to take precautionary measures to limit the risks. Most of our nonmanufacturing employees now work from home and travel is restricted. In China, our colleagues are returning to the office, but also there, we remain vigilant.
在我們開始例行的季度業績回顧之前,我想先談談大家最關心的議題,也就是 COVID-19 疫情與目前的情勢。這是一段前所未有且充滿挑戰的時期,COVID-19 疫情影響著我們每一個人。ASML 的首要目標仍是盡我們所能確保同仁及其家人安全。第二個目標是確保我們持續服務客戶,並確保我們產品藍圖的交付,包括供應的連續性。我們已採取並將持續採取預防措施以降低風險。目前我們大多數非製造部門員工都在家工作,並限制出差。在中國,我們的同仁正陸續返回辦公室,但我們同樣保持高度警覺。
In our own facilities, we have implemented a restricted access to our manufacturing facilities worldwide, and in particular, our clean rooms to ensure our colleagues can work safely. We put in place measures to help ensure isolation between shifts. We've also implemented additional safety and cleaning protocols to minimize contamination risks. We work closely with our customer, suppliers and partners to share information and determine best practices. We see a lot of creativity, resilience and dedication at ASML and the industry and overall, as we work to manage through this crisis.
在我們自有設施方面,我們已在全球實施對製造設施的限制進出,特別是無塵室,以確保同仁能安全工作。我們也採取措施以協助確保不同班次之間的隔離。此外,我們也實施額外的安全與清潔作業流程,以將污染風險降至最低。我們與客戶、供應商及合作夥伴密切合作,分享資訊並制定最佳實務。在 ASML、在整個產業乃至整體而言,我們在共同度過這場危機的過程中,看到了許多創意、韌性與投入。
To date, we have experienced limited impact on ASML's manufacturing capability, although there have been additional challenges with absenteeism, transportation and support logistics that we have had to manage. Some of the quarantine requirements have had an impact on our efficiency, while travel restrictions have posted challenge for installs and major upgrades. We're working with our customers to plan ahead and find creative solutions such as the use of remote monitoring, augmented reality solutions and diagnostic technologies to aid in the service and repair of systems. With regard to our supply chain as some of our suppliers have experienced temporary closures resulting from governmental lockdown and shelter-in-place orders.
截至目前為止,我們在 ASML 的製造能力方面所受影響有限,儘管我們仍需因應缺勤、運輸與支援物流等額外挑戰。部分隔離要求影響了我們的效率,而旅行限制也對裝機與重大升級帶來挑戰。我們正與客戶合作提前規劃,並尋找具創意的解決方案,例如使用遠端監控、擴增實境解決方案與診斷技術,以協助系統的服務與維修。至於供應鏈方面,我們部分供應商因政府封鎖與居家避難命令而出現暫時性停工。
At this stage, we've either been able to work around these temporary disruptions or the closure has been resolved. We are managing risk via alternative sourcing and again, a lot of creativity. We're closely monitoring the status and will use safety stock as much as possible to ensure minimum interruption. At this point in time, we've been able to find solutions for these challenges. Regarding customer demand, we've currently not seen a reduction in demand this year and we have seen a strong order intake. I will talk more on this later.
在此階段,我們要麼已能繞過這些暫時性中斷,要麼停工狀況已解除。我們透過替代來源來管理風險,同樣也需要大量創意。我們正密切監控狀態,並將盡可能使用安全庫存以確保將中斷降到最低。就目前而言,我們已能為這些挑戰找到解決方案。至於客戶需求,我們目前尚未看到今年需求下滑,且我們看到強勁的接單表現。我稍後會再多談。
On cash management, although we have a very healthy balance sheet as well as flexibility in our cost structure. We feel it's prudent to preserve cash should the situation continue for an extended period of time, not just for our own operation, but also in order to be able to support our suppliers as best we can in these extraordinary circumstances and Roger will talk more on the detailed actions. You will all understand that in this environment, it's difficult to determine how things will develop, how long it will last, and the impact this will have on the global GDP development that can affect our entire industry. We're taking the necessary steps in terms of safety, risk mitigation and financial measures to best manage through these challenging times. It's very encouraging to see the creativity, resilience and dedication at ASML and the industry overall.
在現金管理方面,儘管我們擁有非常健全的資產負債表以及成本結構上的彈性,我們仍認為在情勢可能延續較長時間的情況下,保留現金是審慎之舉;這不僅是為了我們自身營運,也為了在這些特殊情況下盡可能支持我們的供應商。Roger 將就具體措施做更詳細說明。各位都能理解,在這樣的環境下,很難判斷事態將如何發展、會持續多久,以及其對全球 GDP 發展的影響,而這可能影響整個產業。我們正就安全、風險緩解與財務措施採取必要步驟,以最佳方式度過這段艱難時期。看到 ASML 以及整體產業展現的創意、韌性與投入,令人非常鼓舞。
Now I would like to turn our normal quarterly results process. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the first quarter. And Roger will start with a review of our Q1 financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and our -- on our future business outlook.
接下來我想回到我們例行的季度業績流程。在開始問答環節之前,Roger 和我將先就第一季提供概覽與一些評論。Roger 會先回顧我們第一季的財務表現,並補充對短期展望的看法;我則會在開場最後,針對目前的商業環境以及我們未來的業務展望補充一些評論。
Thank you, Roger.
謝謝你,Roger。
Roger J. M. Dassen - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
Roger J. M. Dassen - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
Thank you, Peter. Welcome, everyone. I hope you're all safe and healthy.
謝謝你,Peter。各位好,歡迎大家。我希望各位都平安健康。
I will first review the first quarter financial results and then make some comments on the second quarter of 2020. I would also provide more detail around measures we are taking with regards to cash management.
我將先回顧第一季財務結果,接著就 2020 年第二季做一些評論。我也會就我們在現金管理方面所採取的措施提供更多細節。
Net sales came in at EUR 2.4 billion, below our original guidance of EUR 3.1 billion to EUR 3.3 billion, which was primarily related to COVID-19 impact. Net system sales of EUR 1.6 billion was again heavily weighted towards Logic at 73% with the remaining 27% from Memory, clearly showing the continued strength of Logic business. We actually shipped 4 EUV systems in Q1, but we're only able to recognize revenue on 2 systems, which I will explain in more detail later. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 857 million. This was around EUR 100 million lower than guided due to lack of access to machine time as well as a delay in acceptance of upgrades. We expect these upgrades to translate to revenue in Q2.
淨銷售額為 24 億歐元,低於我們原先 31 億至 33 億歐元的指引,主要與 COVID-19 的影響有關。系統淨銷售額為 16 億歐元,仍明顯偏重於邏輯(Logic)業務,占比 73%,其餘 27% 來自記憶體(Memory),清楚顯示邏輯業務持續強勁。第一季我們實際出貨 4 台 EUV 系統,但僅能對其中 2 台認列營收,稍後我會更詳細說明。已裝機基礎管理(Installed Base Management)本季銷售額為 8.57 億歐元,較指引低約 1 億歐元,原因在於無法取得足夠的機台時間,以及升級驗收延後。我們預期這些升級將在第二季轉為營收。
Let me provide a bit more detail on the items that occurred in the quarter that resulted in a system revenue shift of around EUR 700 million, consisting of a Deep UV-related revenue shift over EUR 200 million and EUV-related revenue shift of over EUR 500 million primarily related to COVID-19 impact.
我再補充一些本季發生事項的細節,這些事項導致系統營收約 7 億歐元的遞延,其中包含與深紫外光(Deep UV)相關、超過 2 億歐元的營收遞延,以及與 EUV 相關、超過 5 億歐元的營收遞延,主要皆與 COVID-19 的影響有關。
First, we experienced some delays in Deep UV shipments to customers in Wuhan, China as well as other customers due to operational and travel restrictions regarding COVID-19. We are working with our customers to prepare for these shipments in the next quarters. Second, we experienced some issues in our supply chain as a result of a temporary disruption from EUV component suppliers that encountered operational restrictions due to COVID-19 regulations. These supply chain issues have been sourced for now. Also we experienced longer than initially planned EUV cycle times for the first NXE:3400C models in final configuration, primarily driven by the complex deployment of inline 10 refill as part of the modular vessel.
首先,由於 COVID-19 相關的營運與旅行限制,我們對中國武漢客戶以及其他客戶的深紫外光(Deep UV)出貨出現一些延遲。我們正與客戶合作,為未來幾季的出貨做好準備。第二,因部分 EUV 零組件供應商受到 COVID-19 法規影響而面臨營運限制,導致暫時性中斷,我們的供應鏈因此出現一些問題。目前這些供應鏈問題已暫時獲得解決。此外,我們也發現首批 NXE:3400C 機型在最終配置階段的 EUV 週期時間比原先規劃更長,主要是因為在模組化真空腔體中部署 inline 10 refill 的複雜性所致。
Cycle time related to this aspect is now being reduced every week and we are on track to achieving the aspired cycle time reduction envisaged for the end of this year. As you know, this is an important element in achieving the capability of 45 to 50 EUV tools in 2021 and beyond. As a result of the longer-than-expected cycle times as well as COVID-19-related supply issues, we saw some delays in EUV shipments for the quarter resulting in fewer system shipments than originally planned. Third, due to concerns around the continued ability to ship systems in the current circumstances, some customers have asked us to expedite the delivery of EUV systems in the quarter by shipping the systems before the normal factory acceptance tests. The implication of this is a delay in our revenue recognition as final acceptance will now take place after successful installation at the customer side. We expect the revenue that we were not able to recognize for Q1 as a result of the issues listed above to shift to Q2 and Q3 of this year.
與此項目相關的週期時間目前每週都在縮短,我們正按計畫在今年底前達成所期望的週期時間縮短目標。如各位所知,這是我們在 2021 年及之後達成 45 至 50 台 EUV 機台產能的重要要素。由於週期時間比預期更長,以及與 COVID-19 相關的供應問題,我們本季 EUV 出貨出現一些延遲,導致系統出貨量少於原先規劃。第三,基於對目前情況下持續出貨能力的疑慮,部分客戶要求我們在本季加速交付 EUV 系統,也就是在完成正常的工廠驗收測試之前先行出貨。其影響是我們的營收認列將延後,因為最終驗收將在客戶端成功安裝後才會進行。我們預期,因上述問題導致第一季無法認列的營收,將遞延至今年第二季與第三季。
Gross margin for the quarter was 45.1%, also below our original guidance, primarily due to a combination of delayed field upgrades as well as delayed Deep UV systems revenue related to COVID-19 impact. Overall operating expenses came within guidance with R&D expenses at EUR 544 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 130 million.
本季毛利率為 45.1%,亦低於我們原先的指引,主要是因為延後的現場升級以及與 COVID-19 影響相關的深紫外光(Deep UV)系統營收延後所共同造成。整體營運費用符合指引,其中研發費用為 5.44 億歐元,銷售、一般及行政費用(SG&A)為 1.30 億歐元。
Turning to the balance sheet. EUR 507 million worth of shares were repurchased in Q1. We ended last quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 4.1 billion.
接著談資產負債表。第一季回購了價值 5.07 億歐元的股份。我們在上一季末的現金、約當現金及短期投資為 41 億歐元。
Moving to the order book. Q1 system bookings came in at a strong EUR 3.1 billion, including EUR 1.5 billion from 11 EUV systems. Logic order intake was 66% of the total value with the remaining 34% for Memory, again reflecting the continued strong Logic demand for leading-edge lithography for this year and next year, but also indicating a recovery of the demand for Memory. Net income in Q1 was EUR 391 million, representing 16% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 0.93.
接著看訂單簿。第一季系統接單表現強勁,達 31 億歐元,其中包含來自 11 台 EUV 系統的 15 億歐元。邏輯(Logic)接單占總價值的 66%,其餘 34% 來自記憶體(Memory),再次反映今年與明年對先進微影的強勁邏輯需求持續存在,同時也顯示記憶體需求正在復甦。第一季淨利為 3.91 億歐元,占淨銷售額的 16%,每股盈餘(EPS)為 0.93 歐元。
With that, I would like to make some comments on Q2 of 2020. As Peter mentioned, we have not seen a reduction in demand this year and we continued to see a strong order intake, up around 28% from Q4. Based on current plans, without any COVID interruption, Q2 can be a strong shipment quarter with revenue up potentially over 50% from Q1 and a significant improvement of gross margin. We are still planning to execute to current plan. However, due to significant uncertainty in this COVID-19 environment, we decided it is prudent to refrain from giving formal guidance for Q2.
接下來,我想對 2020 年第二季做一些評論。如 Peter 所提,我們今年尚未看到需求下滑,且持續看到強勁的接單,較第四季約增加 28%。依據目前規劃,在沒有任何 COVID 干擾的情況下,第二季可能會是出貨強勁的一季,營收相較第一季可能成長超過 50%,毛利率也將顯著改善。我們仍計畫按目前計畫執行。然而,由於 COVID-19 環境存在高度不確定性,我們認為審慎起見,決定不提供第二季的正式財測指引。
Finally, on cash management. Although we have a very healthy balance sheet as well as flexibility in our cost structure, we, like many of our peers and customers, are dependent on the short and longer-term implications of the COVID-19 outbreak. Due to these uncertainties, we feel it is prudent to preserve cash should the situation continue for an extended period of time, not just for our own operations, but also in order to be able to support our suppliers as best we can in these extraordinary circumstances. We have decided not to execute any share buybacks in Q2 2020. This decision follows the pause in the execution of the program in the first quarter after having already performed share buybacks under the new program for an amount of approximately EUR 507 million. The previously announced 3-year share buyback program of up to EUR 6 billion to be executed in the 2020-2022 time frame is still in place.
最後談現金管理。雖然我們的資產負債表非常健全,且成本結構具備彈性,但我們與許多同業及客戶一樣,仍受 COVID-19 疫情在短期與長期影響所牽動。基於這些不確定性,我們認為審慎起見應保留現金,以防情勢延續較長時間;這不僅是為了自身營運,也為了在這些特殊情況下盡可能支援供應商。我們已決定在 2020 年第二季不執行任何股份回購。此決定延續第一季對該計畫執行的暫停;在第一季暫停前,我們已在新計畫下回購約 5.07 億歐元的股份。先前宣布、於 2020-2022 年期間執行、總額最高 60 億歐元的 3 年期股份回購計畫仍然有效。
We have also implemented measures to limit our growth in the workforce. Nonbusiness-critical vacancies have been put on hold. We continue to hire for business-critical positions. This way, our workforce will grow less than originally planned this year. We are also postponing any nonbusiness-critical OpEx and CapEx. However, we will continue to invest in the development of future technology road maps, including High-NA, at an unadjusted pace in order to allow our customers the continuation of their road maps once the situation has been normalized.
我們也已採取措施以限制人力成長。非業務關鍵職缺已暫停招募;業務關鍵職位仍持續招募。如此一來,今年人力將較原先規劃成長得更少。我們也將延後任何非業務關鍵的營運費用(OpEx)與資本支出(CapEx)。然而,我們將持續以不調整的速度投資於未來技術路線圖的開發(包含 High-NA),以便在情勢恢復正常後,讓客戶能延續其技術路線圖。
As communicated last quarter, ASML has submitted a proposal at a 2020 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders to declare a total dividend for 2019 of EUR 2.40 per ordinary share. Recognizing the interim dividend of EUR 1.05 paid in November 2019, this leads to a final dividend payment of EUR 1.35 to be paid in the second quarter. This is a 14% increase compared to the 2018 dividend. The 2020 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders will take place on April 22 in Veldhoven.
如同上季所溝通,ASML 已在 2020 年股東常會提交提案,宣告 2019 年每股普通股合計股利為 2.40 歐元。考量 2019 年 11 月已支付的每股 1.05 歐元期中股利,將導致每股 1.35 歐元的期末股利,預計於第二季支付。相較 2018 年股利,這代表增加 14%。2020 年股東常會將於 4 月 22 日在 Veldhoven 舉行。
With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter.
接下來,我想把電話交回給 Peter。
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, our order intake is strong and we have not yet seen any significant pushouts or cancellations this year. Many investments of our customers are strategic and support their technology road maps, a lifeline for our leading-edge customers. These strategic investments are, therefore, primarily related to leading-edge equipment, such as EUV and high-end immersion scanners, requiring longer lead times and qualification schedules.
謝謝你,Roger。如 Roger 所強調,我們的接單強勁,今年迄今尚未看到任何顯著的延後(pushouts)或取消。許多客戶的投資具有策略性,並支援其技術路線圖,對我們的先進客戶而言更是命脈。因此,這些策略性投資主要與先進設備相關,例如 EUV 與高階浸潤式掃描機,這些設備需要較長的交期與認證時程。
It was also confirmed recently by leading-edge customers that have also told us that they see an unabated demand for leading-edge devices, at least throughout this year. Keep in mind, the lead time and the qualification of lithography systems are the longest in the fab, and customers will not want to jeopardize any adjustment to their technology and capacity ramps that will negatively affect their ability to keep serving their leading-edge customers. As the current situation is very fluid, we're meeting with our customers on a more frequent basis to understand any changes they may be seeing regarding demand outlook. In general, most customers are still indicating that they are continuing relatively normal fab operations so far. Logic customers are currently continuing to ramp their 7- and 5-nanometer node in support of end market applications like 5G, AI and high performance compute.
近期先進客戶也再次確認,並告訴我們他們至少在今年內仍看到對先進元件的需求不減。請記住,微影系統的交期與認證在晶圓廠中是最長的,客戶不會希望冒著風險去調整其技術與產能爬坡,因為那會對其持續服務先進客戶的能力造成負面影響。由於目前情勢變化快速,我們更頻繁地與客戶會面,以了解他們在需求展望上可能看到的任何變化。整體而言,多數客戶目前仍表示其晶圓廠營運大致維持相對正常。邏輯客戶目前持續推進 7 奈米與 5 奈米節點,以支援 5G、AI 與高效能運算等終端市場應用。
There are also some positive sign being reported on data center demand as well as demand for notebook and communication infrastructure driven by the significant increase in work from home and virtual learning activities. These applications drive the demand for both Logic and Memory. However, it can also be expected that consumer-related electronics, for example, smartphones, may be under stress, in addition to the potential negative impact the COVID-19 crisis will have on GDP.
此外,也有一些正面訊號顯示資料中心需求,以及因居家辦公與線上學習活動大幅增加所帶動的筆電與通訊基礎設施需求正在成長。這些應用同時推動邏輯與記憶體需求。然而,也可預期與消費者相關的電子產品(例如智慧型手機)可能承受壓力,此外 COVID-19 危機對 GDP 可能造成的負面影響亦需納入考量。
We expect installed base business to continue to scale with growing installed base numbers, and we'll also see EUV contribute to service revenue as these systems are running wafers in volume manufacturing. We currently have plans for upgrades of several customers, however, with the realization, there is a supply and a demand risk in the current environment.
我們預期裝機基礎(installed base)業務將隨著裝機數量增加而持續擴大;同時,隨著這些系統在量產中跑片,EUV 也將對服務營收有所貢獻。我們目前規劃為數家客戶進行升級,但也必須認知到,在當前環境下同時存在供給與需求風險。
Our bookings show an increase in Memory over the prior quarter driven by Deep UV, while Logic continues to show a transition from Deep UV to EUV ordering as customers' confidence in EUV increases, translating into more layers in Logic production. On EUV, along with the industry, ASML continues to make progress in ramping EUV technology in high-volume manufacturing as was recently showcased at the SPIE Lithology Conference in February. Our customers continue to adopt and ramp EUV in high-volume manufacturing in both Logic and Memory. And one of our Memory customers recently announced that they have successfully shipped 1 million of the industry's first 10-nanometer class DRAM modules based on EUV technology. They also stated EUV will be fully deployed in future generation of DRAM, starting with its fourth-generation 10-nanometer D1A next year.
我們的接單顯示,記憶體相較前一季增加,主要由深紫外光(Deep UV)帶動;而邏輯則持續呈現從深紫外光轉向 EUV 下單的趨勢,因客戶對 EUV 的信心提升,進而在邏輯量產中導入更多層數。就 EUV 而言,ASML 與產業一樣,持續在推進 EUV 技術於高量產(HVM)的爬坡,這點也在 2 月於 SPIE Lithology Conference 上有所展示。我們的客戶持續在邏輯與記憶體的高量產中採用並擴大 EUV。且我們的一家記憶體客戶近期宣布,他們已成功出貨 100 萬個業界首款基於 EUV 技術的 10 奈米級 DRAM 模組。他們也表示,EUV 將在未來世代 DRAM 中全面部署,並將從明年的第四代 10 奈米 D1A 開始。
We continue to target EUV revenue of around EUR 4.5 billion from 35 systems this year, thereby assuming that we will not face any significant supply/demand risks, as mentioned before. On margins for EUV, we continue to drive profitability in both the systems as well as the service business. And we're still on track to achieve at least 40% system gross margin this year and breakeven with our EUV service business by the end of the year. Increased customer confidence in EUV technology is translating to strong EUV demand in both Logic and Memory. This is reflected in the strong order flow in the first quarter in support of our 2021 output. As mentioned in earlier calls, we're currently working towards a capacity of 45 to 50 systems in 2021, which we feel can be achieved through reductions in cycle time. We continue to make progress on our next-generation EUV technology, High-NA and are on track to ship the initial development systems in 2022.
我們仍以今年約 35 台系統、約 45 億歐元的 EUV 營收為目標,前提是如先前所述,我們不會面臨任何重大的供給/需求風險。在 EUV 的毛利方面,我們持續推動系統與服務業務的獲利能力。我們仍按計畫在今年達成至少 40% 的系統毛利率,並在年底前讓 EUV 服務業務達到損益兩平。客戶對 EUV 技術信心提升,正轉化為邏輯與記憶體兩端強勁的 EUV 需求,這也反映在第一季強勁的訂單流量上,以支援我們 2021 年的產出。如同先前電話會議所提,我們目前正朝 2021 年 45 到 50 台的產能目標努力,我們認為可透過縮短週期時間來達成。我們在下一代 EUV 技術 High-NA 上也持續取得進展,並按計畫於 2022 年出貨初始開發系統。
Now regarding our outlook on the quarter and on the year, based on the current customer demand plans and without any COVID interruption, Q2 can be a strong shipment quarter, with significant improvement of gross margin, as Roger mentioned. We're currently in execution of this plan. On the full year, customer demand is currently strong as well and the current shipment plans would position us well for another year of growth. However, there is a significant uncertainty about how the current COVID-19 crisis will impact the global GDP development and markets, our manufacturing capability and supply chain. In light of these risks and uncertainties, we decided it's prudent to refrain from giving formal guidance for Q2 and for the full year 2020.
至於我們對本季與全年展望,依據目前客戶需求規劃且在沒有任何 COVID 干擾的情況下,第二季可能會是出貨強勁的一季,毛利率也將顯著改善,如 Roger 所提。我們目前正依此計畫執行。就全年而言,客戶需求目前也仍然強勁,現行出貨規劃將使我們有望再迎來一個成長年度。然而,COVID-19 危機將如何影響全球 GDP 發展與市場、我們的製造能力與供應鏈,仍存在高度不確定性。鑑於這些風險與不確定性,我們決定審慎起見,不提供第二季及 2020 全年的正式財測指引。
Again, these are unprecedented and challenging times, but we will get through it. The world looks a lot different today than it did 3 months ago. Though it is hard to make predictions and we're certainly not adding opinions, we continue to look at the facts day-by-day and act accordingly. We're taking the necessary steps for the safety of our employees, the community and our customers as well as the necessary risk mitigation and financial steps.
再次強調,這是前所未有且充滿挑戰的時期,但我們會度過難關。如今的世界與 3 個月前已大不相同。雖然很難做出預測,我們也確實不會加入主觀意見,但我們會日復一日地檢視事實並據以行動。我們正採取必要步驟,以確保員工、社區與客戶的安全,同時也採取必要的風險緩解與財務措施。
I would like also to take the opportunity to thank the entire ASML team and their families as well as our many partners who stepped up in these demanding times in support of our company and our stakeholders. I've seen great examples of teamwork and incredible creativity to make sure that we can continue our work, serving our customers by keeping our people and partners safe. Despite the fact that the current environment provides clearly near-term challenges and uncertainties, the positive industry momentum around innovation and expanding new markets further strengthens our confidence in our future growth scenarios.
我也想藉此機會感謝整個 ASML 團隊及其家人,以及在這些充滿挑戰的時期挺身而出、支持我們公司與利害關係人的眾多合作夥伴。我看到了許多團隊合作的絕佳例子,以及令人驚嘆的創意,確保我們能夠持續運作,在保障員工與合作夥伴安全的同時,持續為客戶提供服務。儘管目前的環境在短期內明顯帶來挑戰與不確定性,但圍繞創新與拓展新市場的正向產業動能,進一步強化了我們對未來成長情境的信心。
With that, we'd be happy to take your questions.
接下來,我們很樂意回答各位的提問。
Skip Miller - VP of IR
Skip Miller - VP of IR
Thank you, Peter and Roger. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Now operator, can we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?
謝謝你,Peter 和 Roger。接線員將在稍後向各位說明問答環節的流程。(接線員說明)現在,接線員,請給我們最後的說明,然後請開始第一個問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Mr. Sandeep Deshpande.
(接線員說明)第一個問題來自 Sandeep Deshpande 先生。
Sandeep Sudhir Deshpande - Research Analyst
Sandeep Sudhir Deshpande - Research Analyst
Sandeep Deshpande, JPMorgan. My first question to you, Peter, is that you've seen very great order strength in the first quarter. Is this order strength, essentially, what -- if you remember in January, it said that you were hoping the Memory orders would come in through the year. It was these Memory orders coming in, which caused this order strength? Or was it something else like customers were worried that they could -- they may not get tools from you and so they expedited their orders to -- and brought them forward from later in the year, which is what caused this order strength? And my second question, which is a follow -- not a follow-up, but with regard to your 40% gross margin indication in EUV for the year, is -- I mean given this -- the social distancing, et cetera, associated with -- which you may be implementing even in manufacturing, will that not have an impact on the cycle times and thus the gross margin?
我是 JPMorgan 的 Sandeep Deshpande。Peter,我的第一個問題是:你們在第一季看到非常強勁的訂單動能。這個訂單強度本質上是否是——如果你還記得一月時你們提到,希望記憶體(Memory)訂單會在全年逐步進來——是這些記憶體訂單的到來造成了這次的訂單強度?還是有其他原因,例如客戶擔心可能拿不到你們的設備,因此加速下單,把原本在今年稍晚的訂單提前,從而造成這次的訂單強度?第二個問題(不是追問,而是關於你們今年 EUV 40% 毛利率的指引):考量到你們可能在製造端也在實施社交距離等措施,這是否會影響生產週期時間(cycle times),進而影響毛利率?
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Okay. Let me answer this first question. I think the order strength, and I think Roger said it, about 2/3 of the order intake was Logic and 1/3 was Memory. So I don't think it is an acceleration of it. It is something that we would -- that we expected. Also driven by, I think, what we observed as a continued increase in utilization in the Memory space of our machines. So that actually fits in quite nicely. I don't think there were pull-ins either. These orders are there to support our outlook for 2021 and this was planned. So basically, you could say it's more a confirmation of the technology road map that our customers have in front of them. So in that sense, good.
好的。我先回答第一個問題。我認為訂單強度——我想 Roger 也提到——約有 2/3 的訂單流入來自邏輯(Logic),1/3 來自記憶體(Memory)。所以我不認為這是加速(pull-in)。這是我們原本就預期會發生的。同時我認為也受到我們觀察到的影響:在記憶體領域,我們設備的稼動率持續提升。因此這其實相當吻合。我也不認為有提前拉貨。這些訂單是為了支撐我們對 2021 年的展望,而且是事先規劃好的。所以基本上你可以說,這更像是對客戶既有技術路線圖的確認。就這個意義而言,是好的。
On the gross margin indication of 40%, the cycle time impact, we've been able to manage. I mentioned it. We did see an increase in absenteeism in the factories because of the guidelines that people followed by the government, the health authorities, basically saying, if you have symptoms like some of the COVID-19 symptoms, you should stay at home, which people did, even when they had a cold, which actually meant that we did have, indeed, some shortages in the factory, but we've been able to reorder shift patterns. And also what we're seeing is that people that are eligible to work in the factory, for instance, on R&D environment, they are now also working in the factory to make sure that we can do the output. So I think we can manage and I don't think it will have an impact on the 40% gross margin indication that we gave you.
至於 40% 毛利率指引與週期時間的影響,我們一直能夠加以管理。我提過,我們確實看到工廠缺勤率上升,原因是人們遵循政府與衛生主管機關的指引:如果出現類似 COVID-19 的症狀就應該待在家裡。大家確實這麼做了,即使只是感冒也會留在家中,這確實導致我們工廠出現一些人力短缺。不過我們已能重新調整輪班模式。另外我們也看到,原本符合在工廠工作的員工,例如在研發環境中符合資格的人員,現在也到工廠支援,以確保我們能達成產出。因此我認為我們可以管理得當,我不認為這會影響我們給出的 40% 毛利率指引。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Mr. David Mulholland.
下一個問題來自 David Mulholland 先生。
David Terence Mulholland - Director and Equity Research Analyst - Technology Hardware
David Terence Mulholland - Director and Equity Research Analyst - Technology Hardware
It's David from UBS. Just following up on one of the comments that Roger made in terms of how you're looking to, I guess, in some respects, support your supplier base. Can you just give us a little bit more detail about what you're considering there? And are there any particular suppliers that you might be worried about where a particular other part of their business might be, I guess, heavily, or that was exposed that we've seen a very sudden downturn? Just a little more color on how you're planning to support your supplier base.
我是 UBS 的 David。延續 Roger 先前提到的其中一點,關於你們如何在某些方面支援供應商基礎。你能否提供更多細節,說明你們正在考慮哪些作法?是否有任何特定供應商讓你們較為擔心,因為他們業務的其他部分可能高度曝險,且我們看到那邊出現非常突然的下滑?希望你能多補充一些你們計畫如何支援供應商基礎的背景。
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Yes. Let me answer that. I think we are managing our suppliers almost on a day-to-day basis. And most of what we see in the supply chain currently are delays in delivery of modules that are a result of those, let's say, lockdown situations or shelter-in-place situation where we need to find different solutions leading to a delay of parts. However, as you pointed out, when this situation lasts longer, we also could see that some of our suppliers that are also exposed to other industries that currently are not in the, perhaps, somewhat more enviable position where we are, they might be looking for help from our side. And then that help would largely be requests for prepayments. Now we don't see that yet. But I would expect if this lasts long that this would come and they want some prepayments on orders when our demand profile stays as strong as it is.
好的。我來回答。我們幾乎是以每日為單位在管理供應商。目前我們在供應鏈中看到的大多數情況,是模組交付延遲,原因在於封城(lockdown)或就地避難(shelter-in-place)等狀況,我們需要尋找不同的解決方案,因而導致零件延遲。不過如你所指出的,若這種情況持續更久,我們也可能會看到部分供應商——他們同時也曝險於其他產業,而那些產業目前可能不像我們所處的位置相對有利——他們可能會尋求我們的協助。而那種協助多半會是要求預付款(prepayments)。目前我們還沒有看到這種情況。但我預期如果情況拖得更久,當我們的需求輪廓仍像現在這麼強勁時,這類情況就可能出現,他們會希望我們對訂單提供一些預付款。
Having said that, you have to look at the -- at our integral supply chain, which includes our customers. I mean what is true for our supplier is also true for us. So we are, of course, also in discussion with our customers to say, listen, we need to look at the continuity of the supply chain from an integral point of view. So if we need to prepay suppliers, I need prepayments from our customers, yes? So it is almost, you could say, it's a back-to-back link in terms of potential financing requests. I'm pretty sure that some of them will come, yes, and especially in those areas where, as you pointed out, some of our suppliers are losing significant business in other industries.
話雖如此,你必須從整體供應鏈來看——也包括我們的客戶。對我們供應商為真的情況,對我們也同樣為真。因此我們當然也在與客戶討論,表示:我們需要從整體角度來看供應鏈的連續性。所以如果我們需要對供應商預付,我也需要客戶對我們預付,對吧?因此你幾乎可以說,這在潛在融資需求上是一種前後對應(back-to-back)的連結。我相當確定其中一些情況會發生,尤其是在你所指出的那些領域:我們的一些供應商在其他產業正流失大量業務。
So this is what we are -- we don't see it yet, but I mean have been around long enough and also in some other crises, going back to the Internet bubble burst and then the financial crisis and 9/11, there will -- in the supply chain, some potential issues will pop-up, that will just happen. But again, we need to look at this from an integral point of view, from an integral supply chain point of view and our customers play a significant role there also which, by the way, we are in discussion with them and I think these are good discussions. So I'm pretty positive that we can help those areas in our supply chain, which could become critical going forward.
因此這就是我們目前的看法——我們還沒看到,但我在這行待得夠久,也經歷過其他一些危機,回顧網路泡沫破裂、金融危機以及 9/11,在供應鏈中總會冒出一些潛在問題,這是必然會發生的。但同樣地,我們需要從整體角度、從整體供應鏈的角度來看待,而我們的客戶在其中也扮演重要角色。順帶一提,我們也正在與他們討論,我認為這些討論都很正面。所以我相當有信心,我們能夠協助供應鏈中那些未來可能變得關鍵的環節。
David Terence Mulholland - Director and Equity Research Analyst - Technology Hardware
David Terence Mulholland - Director and Equity Research Analyst - Technology Hardware
That's great. And just one follow-up on the R&D side of the business. As you said as many as can are working from home, but I presume you haven't closed on R&D facilities because, I guess, a lot of the work you do still needs to be, I guess, physical tests, particularly in the case of High-NA and work that's going on there.
很好。另外在研發(R&D)業務方面再追問一點:如你所說,能在家工作的都在家工作,但我推測你們並沒有關閉研發設施,因為我想你們很多工作仍需要進行實體測試,特別是 High-NA 以及相關工作的進展。
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Yes. I think if you really talk about the physical tests, I mean that is done in clean rooms and we build modules. So that's an agreement and we talked about this. I mean we have very strict regulations there now almost for -- I would say, almost for 2 months and they are effective. On the R&D side itself, it is -- when we look at the latest productivity numbers, which we follow on a day-to-day basis, I think 90% of our R&D engineers, they work from home. But with the current possibilities that we have in creating virtual teams and working off-site, I can say that I'm pleasantly surprised with the productivity numbers that I see, whether it's the number of design sign-offs, whether it's the number of software builds, the software calculations. Our IT infrastructure is holding up very well, which we prepared, by the way. So that's going well.
是的。我認為如果你真的談到實體測試,那是在無塵室裡進行,我們也會組裝模組。這方面我們有共識,也討論過。我的意思是,我們現在在那裡有非常嚴格的規範,幾乎——我會說——已經將近 2 個月,而且是有效的。至於研發本身,當我們看最新的生產力數據——我們每天都在追蹤——我想我們約 90% 的研發工程師都在家工作。但以目前我們建立虛擬團隊與異地工作的能力而言,我可以說我對我看到的生產力數據感到驚喜:不論是設計簽核(design sign-offs)的數量、軟體建置(software builds)的數量,或是軟體計算。我們的 IT 基礎設施支撐得非常好,而這也是我們事先準備的。所以進展順利。
And when we look at those productivity numbers, they actually are very similar to the productivity numbers that we saw before starting to work at home, which I think is very good, which is also attributed to the flexibility of our people. You see also in the log-on numbers that people make much longer hours. I mean they log-on the same time, but they log-off much later. So there's a lot of working in the evening. And we check very regularly with our managers across the company of how we are doing. And there's a lot of virtual teamwork going on, even leading to virtual drinks in Friday afternoon where they all sit together in front of the camera with a glass of beer.
而當我們看這些生產力數據時,它們其實與開始在家工作之前看到的生產力數據非常相近,我認為這非常好,也可歸功於我們員工的彈性。你也可以從登入(log-on)數據看到,人們工作時間拉得更長。他們登入的時間差不多,但登出(log-off)晚得多。所以晚上有很多工作在進行。我們也非常定期地與全公司各部門的主管確認目前狀況。現在有大量的虛擬團隊合作,甚至在週五下午還會有虛擬小酌,大家坐在鏡頭前,手上拿著一杯啤酒。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Mr. Joe Quatrochi.
下一個問題來自 Joe Quatrochi 先生。
Joseph Michael Quatrochi - Associate Analyst
Joseph Michael Quatrochi - Associate Analyst
Yes, it's Wells Fargo. I was hoping you could kind of give us some more color on the strong Memory bookings that you reported. Can you help us understand are you starting to see demand largely driven by NAND or DRAM? And then to the extent that you can help us understand what was EUV in terms of the Memory bookings? Was that also a driver this quarter?
是的,我是 Wells Fargo。我希望您能就您所報告的強勁記憶體訂單(bookings)提供更多細節。能否協助我們了解,目前看到的需求主要是由 NAND 還是 DRAM 所帶動?另外,在記憶體訂單中,EUV 的占比大概是多少?EUV 也是本季的驅動因素之一嗎?
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Yes. EUV, the last question is, it's really Logic. So very few EUV orders. That will come -- sorry, very few EUV orders for Memory, and that will come. So it is predominantly Logic. And the strong Memory bookings are -- I actually said it earlier. They are also the result of what at least we're seeing in terms of utilization of our systems in the Memory space, both in DRAM and in NAND. The trend, we -- the cautious trend that we saw at the end of Q4 of last year has continued in terms of increased utilization throughout Q1 until -- very recently until last week. So the trends are upward. So that explains why Memory bookings are going up also because customers see this also.
是的。EUV 的部分,最後那個問題,其實主要是在邏輯(Logic)。所以記憶體方面的 EUV 訂單非常少,未來會有——抱歉,是指記憶體的 EUV 訂單非常少,之後會出現。因此目前主要還是邏輯。至於強勁的記憶體訂單——我其實先前也提過。這也反映了至少我們在記憶體領域(DRAM 與 NAND)看到客戶對我們系統的稼動率(utilization)情況。去年第四季末我們看到的那種謹慎趨勢,在第一季期間持續呈現稼動率提升——直到非常近期、也就是上週為止。所以趨勢是向上的。這也解釋了為什麼記憶體訂單會上升,因為客戶也看到了這一點。
Joseph Michael Quatrochi - Associate Analyst
Joseph Michael Quatrochi - Associate Analyst
That's helpful. And then you talked a lot about what ASML is doing in terms of services to meet your customers' needs. Is there any kind of updated thoughts you can give us on -- I think you talked about EUR 3.4 billion for revenue for 2020 for services? And should we think about, like the first quarter or March quarter being kind of a low point for services this year?
這很有幫助。接著您談了很多 ASML 在服務(services)方面如何滿足客戶需求。您是否能更新一下看法——我記得您提到 2020 年服務營收大約是 34 億歐元?另外,我們是否可以把第一季或 3 月季度視為今年服務業務的低點?
Roger J. M. Dassen - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
Roger J. M. Dassen - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
Yes. Yes. I think we mentioned why Q1 was about EUR 100 million below our guidance and we gave you the reason for that. It is the lack of machine time that we had on particular upgrades that we were doing. And as a result of that that will fall into Q2. And other than that, in the installed base business still looks good. So the number that we talked about in the past is a number that has still relevance with all the caveats that we talk about in the entire call around the current uncertainty. Indeed, the EUR 3.4 billion is the number that we talked about on the Q4 call. So that's a good recollection of what we mentioned there.
是的。是的。我想我們已說明為什麼第一季比我們的指引低了約 1 億歐元,也已告訴各位原因。那是因為我們在某些正在進行的升級(upgrades)上,缺少可用的機台時間(machine time)。因此那部分會落到第二季。除此之外,已裝機基礎(installed base)業務看起來仍然良好。所以我們過去談到的那個數字,在本次電話會議中我們對當前不確定性所提出的所有但書(caveats)之下,仍然具有參考意義。確實,34 億歐元是我們在第四季電話會議上提到的數字。你記得很清楚。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Mr. C.J. Muse.
下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 先生。
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Yes, Evercore ISI. I guess, Peter, first question, just to follow-up on the Memory side of things. It looks like ex-EUV, your orders are up, like 80% Q-on-Q. And so curious on that front, is that more NAND versus DRAM? And then on the last call, you talked about optionality to a stronger DRAM recovery into the second half of the year. I'm curious what your thoughts are as it relates to that potential reality?
是的,Evercore ISI。我想,Peter,第一個問題是延續記憶體的話題。看起來在扣除 EUV 之後,你們的訂單季對季成長大約 80%。因此想請教,在這部分是 NAND 多一些還是 DRAM 多一些?另外,在上一次電話會議中,你提到下半年 DRAM 復甦可能更強的「選擇性」(optionality)。我想了解你對這種可能情境的看法。
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Yes. I think when I answer, you have to take into consideration that customers, for instance, do, do relocations. So we might be shipping to a DRAM fab, a leading-edge machine that is replacing a machine that was on a pedestal that now goes to NAND. So there is some relocation there. But I would say that the Memory intake is driven by DRAM. And then with the caveat that we do obviously see some relocation out of DRAM into 3D NAND. But I would say if you would have to answer and say, where is the -- what's the emphasis, the emphasis is on DRAM.
是的。我想在回答時,你必須考量到客戶例如會做產能/設備移轉(relocations)。所以我們可能把一台先進機台出貨到 DRAM 晶圓廠,用來替換原本在某個位置上的機台,而那台被替換下來的機台接著轉去 NAND。這裡面會有一些移轉。但我會說,記憶體接單(intake)主要是由 DRAM 帶動。同時也要加上但書:我們確實看到有一些從 DRAM 移轉到 3D NAND 的情況。但如果你要回答「重點在哪裡」,重點是在 DRAM。
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Okay. Great. Very helpful. My follow-up, can you speak directly to how you're thinking about cycle time improvements on EUV? And as part of that, what will it take to get the ability for you to have double-digit shipments on a quarterly basis, which it looks like you need to do to hit that 35-unit forecast? And I guess as part of that, should we be thinking about the potential for customers to expedite again in the coming quarters and therefore, perhaps maybe revenue on 1 or 2 tools gets delayed into '21?
好的。非常好,很有幫助。我的追問是,你能否直接談談你們對 EUV 週期時間(cycle time)改善的思考?作為其中一部分,要達到你們每季能出貨兩位數台數的能力,需要做到哪些事情?看起來你們要達成 35 台的預測,就需要這樣的節奏。另外,作為其中一部分,我們是否應該考慮客戶在接下來幾季再次加速(expedite)的可能性,因此可能會有 1 或 2 台工具的營收延後到 2021 年?
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Well, on the last point, I mean it's April 15, so I don't know what's going to happen in December. So that's not what our customers tell us today. Our customers tell us today that they want the 35 systems. On the cycle time improvement and our ability to ship double-digit numbers, we are planning and without any supply chain or capacity disruptions because of COVID, we will ship double-digit numbers in this quarter in Q2 of 2020. So we have that capability. And when you look at this, and let's say, customers have a number of 36 units that they want, it's not 9999 every quarter. That's not how it works. And it works when do the customers need it because it's their ramp schedule that is going to determine when we ship.
嗯,關於最後一點,我的意思是,今天是 4 月 15 日,所以我不知道 12 月會發生什麼事。這也不是我們客戶今天告訴我們的情況。我們客戶今天告訴我們的是,他們要 35 套系統。至於週期時間改善以及我們出貨兩位數台數的能力,我們正在規劃,而且在沒有因 COVID 造成任何供應鏈或產能中斷的前提下,我們會在今年第二季(Q2 2020)出貨兩位數台數。所以我們具備那樣的能力。再者,當你看這件事,假設客戶想要 36 台,並不是每一季都固定 9,999 台——不是那樣運作的。運作方式是:客戶何時需要,因為客戶的爬坡(ramp)時程會決定我們何時出貨。
For instance, in Q1, we only shipped 4 systems, but we planned before the COVID-19 impact, 6 in Q1, not that we couldn't make more, it just -- it also has to do it with when the customers need the machines, yes? So we will do double-digit in this quarter, yes? And actually, it means that we have the capability, which is, of course, very important to get to the 35 numbers. I think the cycle time reductions -- and was one of the earlier comment, we have some absenteeism in the factory. We're dealing with that. I think we will get to the cycle time reductions as planned and we will have the capability to do 35 systems this year.
例如在第一季,我們只出貨了 4 套系統,但在 COVID-19 影響之前,我們原本規劃第一季出貨 6 套;並不是我們做不出更多,而是——也與客戶何時需要機台有關,對吧?所以我們本季會做到兩位數出貨,是的。而且這表示我們具備那樣的能力,這當然對達成 35 台非常重要。我認為週期時間的降低——也呼應先前的評論,我們工廠有一些缺勤(absenteeism),我們正在處理。我想我們會如計畫達成週期時間降低,並且具備今年出貨 35 套系統的能力。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Mr. Krish Sankar.
下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 先生。
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Krish from Cowen. I have 2 of them. First one, Peter, to the extent you can answer this, what do you think you would ship in terms of DUV units this year either in absolute unit numbers or relative to 2019?
我是 Cowen 的 Krish。我有兩個問題。第一個,Peter,在你方便回答的範圍內,你認為今年 DUV 的出貨量會是多少?不論是絕對台數或相對於 2019 年。
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Relative to 2019, you will see -- that's just a general comment. I'm not going to guide you on a specific Deep UV number. But as we said before and I have said for some time now that when you look at EUV, EUV is cannibalizing, you could say, some multiple patterning layers. So there will be a reduction of Deep UV systems in 2020 and that will be more than compensated by the sales number in EUV. And that's logical. That's what we've always said. EUV is there to cannibalize multiple pattern and layers. Now how much that in the end will be, it's going to be somewhat now lower. It's not going to be significant, but that is the trend. It's a trend going forward. As you can also see from our 2025 Capital Market Day information, where you also see that in 2025, the Deep UV numbers are lower than what they used to be and that's because EUV is going to replace those.
相對於 2019 年,你會看到——這只是一般性的評論。我不會就特定的深紫外(Deep UV)台數給你指引。但如我們之前所說、而且我也說了一段時間了,當你看 EUV 時,EUV 正在「侵蝕」(cannibalizing)你可以說是一些多重圖形化(multiple patterning)的層數。因此 2020 年深紫外系統會減少,而這會被 EUV 的銷售數字所充分補償。這是合理的,這也是我們一直以來的說法。EUV 的存在就是為了取代多重圖形化與其層數。至於最後會是多少,現在看起來會稍微更低一些;不會是顯著的變化,但這就是趨勢,而且是未來的趨勢。你也可以從我們 2025 年資本市場日(Capital Market Day)的資訊看到:到 2025 年,深紫外的數量比過去更低,原因就是 EUV 會取代那些。
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Got it. Got it. That's helpful, Peter. And then as my follow-up, if I look at your -- for the last 2 quarters, if I look at your Memory shipments and compare it, it's very similar to the sales into China. So a, is most of your Memory shipments in the last 2 quarters coming mainly from China? And b, how do you expect that to trend over the next couple of quarters?
了解,了解。這很有幫助,Peter。接著我的追問是,如果我看你們——過去兩季的記憶體出貨,拿來跟對中國的銷售相比,兩者非常相近。所以 a,過去兩季你們的記憶體出貨是否主要來自中國?b,你預期接下來幾季會如何走勢?
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Well, it's -- as you know, and I said, we actually mentioned that the shipments in Q1 were impacted by the COVID-19 crisis in China, especially Wuhan, where there's a Memory customer there, yes? Well, you can imagine, we didn't ship anything to that customer. The other customer took a few tools according to plan. But the majority, of course, of everything that we shipped, was outside China.
嗯,這——如你所知,而且我也說過,我們其實提到第一季的出貨受到中國 COVID-19 危機的影響,特別是武漢,那裡有一位記憶體客戶,對吧?你可以想像,我們沒有對那位客戶出任何貨。另一位客戶則依照計畫拿了幾台工具。但我們出貨的大多數,當然都是在中國以外。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Mr. Pierre Ferragu.
下一個問題來自 Pierre Ferragu 先生。
Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure
Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure
It's Pierre at New Street. So Peter and Roger, from your prepared remarks, I understand like the near-term of COVID-19 played out clearly not so bad for you and your value chain and that you're managing very well logistics disruption and more like the supply side of the story. Now, of course, my next concern is what happens next. And I hear you that we have very little visibility, so it's very -- it's impossible to make like a near-term forecast. But my question would be like a what-if question. So let's assume that in the second half of the year, demand for PCs, servers and smartphones are down 20%, 25% year-on-year. If that happens at a high level, how do you see your clients impacted -- are impacted? And how do you see that's impacting ASML?
我是 New Street 的 Pierre。所以 Peter 和 Roger,從你們準備好的發言來看,我理解 COVID-19 的短期影響顯然對你們以及你們的價值鏈而言並沒有那麼糟,而且你們在物流中斷以及更偏供給端的問題上管理得很好。當然,我接下來的擔憂是之後會發生什麼。我也聽到你們說能見度很低,所以——幾乎不可能做短期預測。但我的問題會是一個假設性的問題。假設今年下半年 PC、伺服器與智慧型手機的需求年減 20%、25%。如果發生這種情況,從高層次來看,你認為你們的客戶會受到什麼影響——會如何受影響?以及你認為這會如何影響 ASML?
And I have 2 specific like question marks in mind. One is, in that kind of scenario, would your clients push out EUV orders? Or do you think they need to take orders anyway because they need to take your supply of the technology? And then the second one I had in mind was what about a very steep decline risk in DUV because I imagine that if volumes are not where they were expected when rollout plans were made 6 months ago, I would expect a lot of reuse of DUV tools as node migrations continue.
我腦中有兩個具體的問號。第一個是,在那種情境下,你們的客戶會把 EUV 訂單往後延嗎?還是你認為他們無論如何都得下單,因為他們需要接受你們的技術供應?第二個是,DUV 是否存在非常陡峭下滑的風險?因為我想像,如果在 6 個月前制定導入計畫時所預期的出貨量沒有達到,我會預期在節點遷移持續進行時,會有大量重複使用 DUV 設備。
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Let me first answer your question, how does it impact ASML on a certain scenario? Basically, I couldn't answer that. I would be a bit mean and say, that's your work, not mine, yes? But...
我先回答你的問題:在某個情境下,這會如何影響 ASML?基本上,我無法回答。我可以有點刻薄地說,那是你的工作,不是我的,對吧?但是……
Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure
Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure
Point taken, point taken.
了解,了解。
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
So -- but what I would answer is that if you don't know where you're going, you'd better be flexible, yes? And this is what we're organizing. We're organizing for flexibility in the supply chain. As you know, 80% or 80% plus is in the supply chain. That means that we -- very like with every crisis, we hardly ever saw cancellations. We saw pushouts. So it basically means you would be looking at in the supply chain financing of working capital, which is also particularly important in the context of the answer I gave to a question earlier, what do you want to do in the supply chain, which I think is an integral supply chain problem, which includes our customers. I mean they cannot do without supply in the end either. So it's a working capital issue, which I think is manageable.
所以——但我會回答的是:如果你不知道要往哪裡去,你最好保持彈性,對吧?而這正是我們在做的。我們正在讓供應鏈具備彈性。如你所知,80% 或 80% 以上都在供應鏈端。這表示——就像每一次危機一樣,我們幾乎從未看到取消訂單。我們看到的是延後出貨(pushouts)。所以基本上,你要看的會是供應鏈端的營運資金融資,這在我先前回答某個問題的脈絡下也特別重要:你想在供應鏈裡做什麼?我認為這是一個整體性的供應鏈問題,也包含我們的客戶。我的意思是,他們最終也離不開供應。所以這是一個營運資金的議題,我認為是可控的。
I think from a flexibility point of view, we have a lot of cost flexibility here with our variable cost on labor. It was a lot of variable cost, it's like variable income to our people, which, of course, when the business goes down, that will go down also. I don't think there will be a lot of pushouts for EUV orders. What our customers are telling us now. And when I listen well to them, they are not blind. They see that the impact on GDP will be recessionary. And that will very likely have an impact on consumer spending and on the consumer electronics. What they do notice is that the customers of our customers are not blind either that the demand on the leading-edge Logic, which includes 5- and 7-nanometer is still strong.
我認為從彈性的角度來看,我們在這裡有很大的成本彈性,因為我們的人力變動成本占比很高。那是一大部分的變動成本,對我們的人而言也像是變動收入;當然,當業務下滑時,那也會跟著下降。我不認為 EUV 訂單會有很多延後。我們的客戶現在告訴我們的是——而且我仔細聽他們說——他們並不天真。他們看到 GDP 的影響將是衰退性的,而這很可能會影響消費支出以及消費性電子。他們也注意到,我們客戶的客戶同樣不天真:對於先進邏輯(leading-edge Logic)的需求——包括 5 奈米與 7 奈米——仍然強勁。
I mean our customers tell us every time, every week that we talk to them, please stay on target with your shipments of your leading-edge machines. Now if data centers would require 25% less service, which, by the way, if you think about it, it's probably that it's -- then something very bad has actually happened because we need more data center capacity and not less, yes? So -- and that's where the high compute goes, yes? So I think push out of EUV orders, it can always happen. I don't think it's going to be significant. We're not planning for an Armageddon scenario where the entire world economy crumbles into an abyss. We were not planning that. I don't think it's going to happen either. I think it's a low likelihood.
我的意思是,我們的客戶每次、每週跟我們談時都在說:請你們務必按計畫出貨你們的先進機台。現在如果資料中心需要少 25% 的服務——順帶一提,如果你想一想,這大概表示——那其實是發生了非常糟糕的事,因為我們需要更多而不是更少的資料中心容量,對吧?所以——而高運算需求就在那裡,對吧?所以我認為 EUV 訂單延後永遠都有可能發生,但我不認為會很顯著。我們並沒有在規劃一個世界末日的情境,也就是整個世界經濟崩塌墜入深淵。我們沒有那樣規劃。我也不認為會發生。我認為機率很低。
So all in all, I think we're flexible enough. I think EUV, with the -- with key focus on leading-edge solutions that our customers' customers need is going to be relatively safe. And I think reuse of Deep UV tools is -- the story of reuse of Deep UV tools has always been very prominent in every cycle. But you need to realize that when you look at leading edge, it's not only EUV, it's leading-edge Deep UV, but you need Deep UV not so much for the geometrical shrink, you need it for overlay, yes? And that is very important for those new leading-edge devices. So the overlay requirements for an NXT:2050, which will be our leading-edge immersion tool, is significantly different than in 1980, because in 1980 we will not be able to do what the 2050 should be doing to make sure that they can support our leading-edge nodes. So reuse will be limited. It simply has to do with the fact that the requirements that are needed for leading-edge nodes for Deep UV tools are different and they are also more difficult for the older generations to achieve.
總體而言,我認為我們的彈性已經足夠。我認為 EUV——以我們客戶的客戶所需要的先進解決方案為核心——相對安全。我也認為重複使用 DUV 設備——重複使用 DUV 設備的故事在每個景氣循環中一直都很突出。但你必須理解,當你看先進製程時,不只有 EUV,還有先進的 DUV;但你需要 DUV 並不那麼是為了幾何尺寸縮小,你需要它是為了疊對(overlay),對吧?而這對那些新的先進元件非常重要。所以,NXT:2050(將會是我們的先進浸潤式機台)的疊對要求,和 1980 相比有顯著差異,因為 1980 無法做到 2050 應該做到的事,以確保它們能支援我們的先進節點。因此,重複使用會受到限制。這純粹是因為先進節點對 DUV 設備所需的要求不同,而且對舊世代而言也更難達成。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Mr. Mehdi Hosseini.
下一個問題來自 Mehdi Hosseini 先生。
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Peter, going back to the topic of where we're going to, I'm still confused. You talked about improvement in the supply chain. You talked about sequential revenue growth that could exceed 50%, but you're not providing a guide, not even for Q2. What is it out there? And we are halfway through April. What is it out there that makes you uncomfortable given what you see in the next 2 months? I'm not asking about the second half, I'm asking just the Q2. And I have a follow-up.
Peter,回到我們要往哪裡去這個主題,我還是很困惑。你談到供應鏈的改善。你談到序列營收成長可能超過 50%,但你沒有提供指引,甚至連 Q2 都沒有。外面到底是什麼情況?而且我們已經到 4 月中旬了。在你看到未來兩個月的情況下,到底是什麼讓你感到不安?我不是在問下半年,我只是在問 Q2。而且我還有一個追問。
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Yes. No, I fully understand your question, Mehdi, because we always say, well, we have very long lead times in the supply chain, which is true for the critical suppliers like, for instance, ZEISS. We have, in the end, if you take Tier 2 also thousands of suppliers, which some of them have lead times which are a lot shorter. We've had delays in EUV in Q1 of a couple of weeks because one particular supplier couldn't provide rings, your flow rings, which is not the most advanced part that we need. But if you don't have it, you don't have it. So this is where our concern comes from. It's the tiered supply chain, which is not always that visible to us.
是的。不,我完全理解你的問題,Mehdi,因為我們總是說,供應鏈的交期很長,對於關鍵供應商(例如 ZEISS)確實如此。最終如果把二級供應商(Tier 2)也算進來,我們有數千家供應商,其中有些的交期短得多。我們在 Q1 的 EUV 出現了幾週的延遲,因為某一家特定供應商無法提供環件——你的流量環(flow rings)——那並不是我們需要的最先進部件。但如果沒有它,就真的沒有。所以我們的擔憂就來自這裡:分層的供應鏈,對我們而言並不總是那麼可視。
We have tiered suppliers coming from Malaysia, Mexico, you name it, and they are supplying to our Tier 2 and Tier 1 suppliers. And if that supply basically stops then even a part that has a relatively short lead time doesn't arrive on time, and we get a delay. I think, ultimately, we get those parts, it's just a delay. And if we tell you, if we give you a number and we get a significant delay in some of those short lead-time parts, we cannot ship tools and that can be significant. You may remember that the 3400C now is EUR 130 million tool. That's a big number. And I don't want to give you a range from x billion to y billion. That doesn't make sense, yes? So this is where it comes from, yes?
我們有分層供應商來自馬來西亞、墨西哥等等,他們供貨給我們的 Tier 2 與 Tier 1 供應商。如果那個供應基本上停止,那麼即使是交期相對短的零件也無法準時到達,我們就會延遲。我認為最終我們會拿到那些零件,只是會延後。而如果我們告訴你、如果我們給你一個數字,但在某些短交期零件上出現顯著延遲,我們就無法出貨機台,而那可能影響很大。你可能記得,現在一台 3400C 是 1.3 億歐元的機台。那是很大的數字。而我不想給你一個從 x 十億到 y 十億的區間。那沒有意義,對吧?所以這就是原因,對吧?
And I think it is really based on the experience that we've had in Q1 where we were able to manage it, but we did see some delays. And since we cannot judge what the impact will be of these governmental orders in different parts of the world, we cannot assess what that risk is. But it's there because we've seen it. We've been able to manage it with a lot of creativity. It doesn't give me any assurance or certainty that we will be able to manage it going forward always. So this is where it comes from.
而且我認為這真的基於我們在 Q1 的經驗:我們能夠管理,但確實看到一些延遲。由於我們無法判斷各國政府命令在世界不同地區會造成什麼影響,我們無法評估那個風險有多大。但風險是存在的,因為我們看到了。我們用很多創意把它管理住了。但這並不能讓我有任何保證或確定性,認為我們未來總是能夠把它管理好。所以這就是原因。
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Very clear. And if you could give us an update on Hermes multi-beam shipment. I think the beta tool was supposed to be shipped to the customer in Q1. And what's the update there?
非常清楚。另外,如果你能更新一下 Hermes 多光束(multi-beam)的出貨情況。我認為那台 beta 機原本應該在 Q1 出貨給客戶。那邊最新狀況如何?
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Yes. I think it was ready. It was in packing. And then the shelter in place in the Bay Area, because that's where it comes from, it comes from San Jose, just stopped the tool. So it was -- that the trucks were pulling up and they had to return.
是的。我想它已經準備好了,也已經在包裝中。然後灣區的就地避難令(shelter in place)——因為它就是從那裡來的,來自聖荷西(San Jose)——就把這台設備卡住了。所以——卡到什麼程度呢?卡到卡車都已經開到門口了,卻不得不返回。
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
But do you see the trucks are going to resume their destination in Q2? Or they're going to be more...
但你認為卡車會在 Q2 恢復前往目的地嗎?還是會更……
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Well, I think -- listen, I mean what we are doing now, we are assessing whether we and this particular tool falls under the definition of a critical business. And actually, we're looking into what our possibilities are to actually ship the tool. And I would love to ship the tool ASAP because it's ready and the customer wants it. So let's see how things go.
嗯,我想——聽著,我的意思是,我們現在在做的是評估我們以及這台特定設備是否符合「關鍵業務」的定義。實際上,我們也在研究我們有哪些可能性可以實際把這台設備運出去。我很希望能盡快(ASAP)出貨,因為它已經準備好了,而且客戶也想要。所以就看看事情怎麼發展。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Mr. Mitch Steves.
下一個問題來自 Mitch Steves 先生。
Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst
Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst
This is Mitch Steves from RBC. Just had a question on the services business. I'm trying to understand it a little better. So I'm guessing you guys are able to do some of this remotely. But can you maybe walk us through how much revenue you guys think will come back? How much revenue you may have lost in Q1? And then how it would work if, like, we get out of the shelter in place, say, earlier? Would that be a lot of pent-up demand where you see a snap-up? Or does the services business kind of actually just get hit and some of the revenues are lost?
我是來自 RBC 的 Mitch Steves。想就服務業務問個問題,我想更深入了解一下。所以我猜你們有些工作可以遠端進行。但你們能否帶我們梳理一下:你們認為會回流多少營收?你們在第一季可能損失了多少營收?另外,如果例如我們較早解除居家避難令,會怎麼運作?會不會有大量被壓抑的需求,讓你們看到需求快速回補?還是說服務業務其實就是會受到衝擊,部分營收就此流失?
Roger J. M. Dassen - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
Roger J. M. Dassen - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
I think the revenue, Mitch, that we lost in Q1, as we mentioned, is around EUR 100 million and it's primarily related to certain upgrades. I would say it's not even related to COVID-19 in particular. It was related to the fact that we didn't get sufficient machine time from customers. So that revenue we missed for Q1, we'll get it in Q2. There's hardly any doubt in my mind, we will get that in Q2. And other than that, I don't think there is going -- as far as we can see right now, we don't see any anomalies. So at this stage, still on track for the EUR 3.4 billion in IBM revenue that we talked about in the previous quarter.
Mitch,我們在第一季損失的營收,如同我們提到的,大約是 1 億歐元,主要與某些升級相關。我會說這甚至不特別是 COVID-19 造成的,而是因為我們沒有從客戶那裡取得足夠的機台可用時間。因此第一季錯失的那部分營收,我們會在第二季拿回來。我幾乎毫不懷疑,我們會在第二季拿回來。除此之外,就我們目前所見,我們沒有看到任何異常。所以在這個階段,我們仍按計畫達成我們在上一季談到的 34 億歐元 IBM 營收目標。
As we also mentioned in the video, and as Peter talked about in the introduction, we are deploying new technologies, right? So of course, we're less able than we were in the past to have people go from Veldhoven from Wilton, et cetera, and go to the customer locations for obvious reasons, for the travel restriction and what have you. But by using artificial -- by using virtual reality, augmented reality type technology, we are able to support the huge local support teams that we have with very specialized knowledge that we have at the different hubs. And in that way, so far, we think we're still well positioned to keep up providing the service and the upgrade work that we need to do.
如同我們在影片中也提到的,以及 Peter 在開場時談到的,我們正在部署新技術,對吧?所以當然,出於顯而易見的原因——旅行限制等等——我們不像過去那樣能讓人員從 Veldhoven、Wilton 等地前往客戶現場。但透過使用人工——透過使用虛擬實境、擴增實境等技術,我們能以各個樞紐所具備的高度專業知識,來支援我們龐大的在地支援團隊。到目前為止,我們認為我們仍處於有利位置,能持續提供我們需要的服務與升級工作。
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
One additional comment here, it's more anecdotal, but actually, we were preparing as a kind of a prototype project somewhere deep in the organization, how could we support remotely through augmented reality and HoloLens, basically people sitting 6,000 kilometers from the actual service action. And then we have now over-the-shoulder 3D augmented reality support that service engineers with 6 months of training that would normally have to do this after a 2- to 3-year training, we're now operating and doing service actions with the support of experts that were sitting 6,000 kilometers away and basically providing them with 3D images, how they should do the service actions and it works. So this is also something that amazed us also. And actually, our service levels, we keep up all our service levels up in terms of maintenance and servicing of our tools, which I think is a really good achievement.
這裡再補充一點,算是軼事,但其實我們原本在組織深處準備一個原型專案:我們如何透過擴增實境與 HoloLens 來遠端支援,讓距離實際服務作業 6,000 公里的人也能提供協助。現在我們已經有「肩上視角」的 3D 擴增實境支援;原本需要 2 到 3 年訓練才能做的服務動作,現在受訓 6 個月的服務工程師,在遠端 6,000 公里外專家的支援下就能執行服務作業,專家基本上透過 3D 影像指導他們如何進行服務動作,而且確實可行。這也讓我們很驚訝。而且我們的服務水準——在工具維護與保養方面——都維持住了,我認為這是非常好的成就。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Mr. Achal Sultania.
下一個問題來自 Achal Sultania 先生。
Achal Sultania - Director
Achal Sultania - Director
It's Crédit Suisse. Peter, maybe one question from my side, on the services. You mentioned that so far, you've tried to do a lot of remote working and local team assisting to get maintenance and upgrades done. How should we think about the EUV installation part? Do you have teams in place at customer fabs or at customer locations to make sure that EUV installation can still go ahead as per plan, at least during Q2, if travel restrictions are not lifted?
這裡是瑞士信貸。Peter,我這邊可能有一個關於服務的問題。你提到到目前為止,你們嘗試做了很多遠端作業並由在地團隊協助,以完成維護與升級。我們應該如何看待 EUV 安裝這一塊?如果旅行限制沒有解除,你們是否在客戶晶圓廠或客戶現場有配置團隊,以確保至少在第二季 EUV 安裝仍能按計畫推進?
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Yes, that's a very good question. Luckily, we have 3 main sites where we do EUV and that's also the sites where we have most of our service engineers. I mean we have to think of 1,000 plus. So there is a lot of experience there. And this is exactly where this remote support comes in. We do send people across the globe, but that's where we have hundreds of people, hundreds of people traveling, it's now probably not more than 50, 60. They have to go into 2 weeks of quarantine. They have to get a special travel visa. So we need to plan and prepare this much more rigorously than we did in the past. And this is where we do send experts. But I think a lot of these service actions that are not of the really topnotch expert level are being trained and being done with the kind of novel remote support technologies that I just mentioned. So it's a combination of both. And I think we'll be able to do all the installations. We have been able to actually do that and we are. So yes, we still do travel. It's not going back to 0, but it's a fraction of what we were able to do, but it works
是的,這是個非常好的問題。幸運的是,我們有 3 個主要站點在做 EUV,而那也正是我們擁有最多服務工程師的站點。我是說,我們得想到有 1,000 人以上,所以那裡累積了大量經驗。而這正是遠端支援派上用場的地方。我們確實會派人到全球各地,但過去是數百人、數百人地出差,現在可能不超過 50、60 人。他們必須隔離 2 週,必須取得特殊旅行簽證。因此我們需要比過去更嚴謹地規劃與準備。這也是我們會派出專家的地方。但我認為,許多不需要最頂尖專家等級的服務作業,正在透過我剛提到的新型遠端支援技術來訓練並執行。所以是兩者的組合。我認為我們能完成所有安裝。我們其實已經能做到,而且正在做。所以是的,我們仍然會出差;不會回到 0,但只是過去能做的很小一部分,但運作良好。
Achal Sultania - Director
Achal Sultania - Director
And maybe one follow-up for Roger. Then, Roger, on the services side, you mentioned EUR 3.4 billion is still in sight for the full year. Can you help us understand like how much of that -- within that will be EUV specifically? And also how much of losses for EUV services can we expect? I know you mentioned breakeven, hopefully, by the end of the year. Because the thing that I'm trying to understand is how much of a drag on services gross margin has EUV been last year or maybe this year, just to help us get to what the number should be going forward.
另外可能有一個追問給 Roger。Roger,在服務方面,你提到全年 34 億歐元仍在可望範圍內。你能否幫我們理解一下:其中有多少會是 EUV 相關?另外,我們可以預期 EUV 服務會有多少損失?我知道你提到希望在年底前達到損益兩平。因為我想理解的是,EUV 去年或今年對服務毛利率造成了多大的拖累,好讓我們推估未來這個數字應該是多少。
Roger J. M. Dassen - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
Roger J. M. Dassen - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
Let me be very short on that. So for this year, I think quarter-over-quarter, what -- so if you compare the last quarter, so Q4 to today, that would probably account for 0.5% in gross margin. So the improvement in EUV this year is going to account for about 0.5% in gross margin for the year. So that's an answer to that question. In general, if you look at the EUR 3.4 billion, it's about 50-50 in terms of regular service and maintenance, if you like, and upgrades. And the regular service and maintenance, EUV is still a fairly small number, given, of course, the installed base for Deep UV is so much larger. But the impact on the gross margin percentage, about 0.5%.
我簡短回答。就今年而言,我認為以季對季來看——也就是把上一季 Q4 跟今天相比——大概會反映在毛利率 0.5% 左右。因此,今年 EUV 的改善,全年大約會貢獻 0.5% 的毛利率提升。這就是對那個問題的回答。整體來看,如果你看 34 億歐元,大約是 50/50:一半是一般服務與維護(如果你願意這麼稱呼),另一半是升級。而在一般服務與維護中,EUV 仍是相對小的數字,因為當然 Deep UV 的裝機基數大得多。但對毛利率百分比的影響,大約是 0.5%。
Skip Miller - VP of IR
Skip Miller - VP of IR
All right. We have time for one last question. If you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question.
好的。我們還有時間再問最後一個問題。如果你這通電話沒能接進來但仍有問題,歡迎隨時聯絡 ASML 投資人關係部門提出你的問題。
Operator
Operator
The last question is from Mr. Andrew Gardiner.
最後一個問題來自 Andrew Gardiner 先生。
Andrew Michael Gardiner - Director
Andrew Michael Gardiner - Director
It's Andrew from Barclays. Just a follow-up, really, on the comments you guys have been making on the Memory tool utilization. Peter, you said you've seen it improve sort of from late fourth quarter into first quarter and just up this quarter. I'm just wondering, how much flex do you think the industry still has to continue to grow bit output by raising utilization? And when are they going to get close to full utilization, again, based on the current trends? Obviously, I know we've got the global caveats. But just if trends were to continue, how close are we to that full utilization where they'd need to start adding capacity again?
我是 Barclays 的 Andrew。只是針對你們對記憶體設備稼動率的評論做個追問。Peter,你說你看到它從第四季後段到第一季有所改善,而且本季又再上升。我想問的是,你認為產業透過提高稼動率來持續提升位元產出(bit output)還有多少彈性?依照目前趨勢,他們何時會再次接近滿載稼動?當然我知道全球情勢有很多變數,但如果趨勢持續下去,我們距離那個滿載稼動、他們需要再次開始擴充產能的點,還有多近?
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
Peter T. F. M. Wennink - Chairman of the Management Board, President & CEO
I think that will be this quarter. When I look at the trend, it's going to be -- it's pretty close. There's still a little bit of underutilization to go, but it will be this quarter. Sorry to be short, Andrew, but it is what it is.
我認為會在本季。就我看到的趨勢來看,已經——相當接近了。仍有一點點未充分稼動的空間,但會在本季。抱歉我回答得很簡短,Andrew,但事實就是如此。
Andrew Michael Gardiner - Director
Andrew Michael Gardiner - Director
That's just fine. The best answer.
完全沒問題。這是最好的答案。
Skip Miller - VP of IR
Skip Miller - VP of IR
Do you have a second question, Andrew?
Andrew,你還有第二個問題嗎?
Andrew Michael Gardiner - Director
Andrew Michael Gardiner - Director
No. I'll let you close quickly then.
沒有。我就讓你們快速收尾吧。
Skip Miller - VP of IR
Skip Miller - VP of IR
All right. Thank you. Now on behalf of ASML, I would like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。現在我代表 ASML,感謝各位今天加入我們。接線員,若你能正式結束本次電話會議,我將不勝感激。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
This concludes the ASML 2020 First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
ASML 2020 年第一季財務結果電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。