艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2019 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Conference Call on January 22, 2020. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to open the question-and-answer queue. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您耐心等候。歡迎參加 ASML 於 2020 年 1 月 22 日舉行的 2019 年第四季及全年財務結果電話會議。(接線員指示) 我現在將開放問答佇列。(接線員指示)

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將電話會議交給 Skip Miller。先生，請開始。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today from ASML headquarters in Veldhoven, The Netherlands, is ASML CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen.

謝謝，接線員。各位好，歡迎大家。我是 Skip Miller，ASML 投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一同在荷蘭費爾德霍芬（Veldhoven）ASML 總部出席的有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink，以及我們的財務長 Roger Dassen。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2019 fourth quarter and full year results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. The call is also broadcast being live over the internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2019 年第四季及全年業績。本次會議時間為 60 分鐘，問題將依收到的順序回答。本次電話會議也會在 asml.com 透過網路進行即時直播。管理層開場致詞的逐字稿以及本次會議的重播，將在會議結束後不久於我們的網站提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in the ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，管理層在本次電話會議中的評論將包含符合聯邦證券法定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險與不確定性。關於風險因素的討論，我鼓勵各位查閱今日新聞稿與簡報中所載的安全港聲明（可於 asml.com 取得），以及 ASML 的 Form 20-F 年報與其他向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

接下來，我想把電話會議交給 Peter Wennink，請他做簡短的開場介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our Q4 and full year 2019 annual results conference call.

謝謝你，Skip。各位好，歡迎大家。感謝各位參加我們 2019 年第四季及全年年度業績電話會議。

Before begin -- we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the fourth quarter and the full year 2019 as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. Roger will start with a review of our Q4 and full year 2019 financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook. Thank you. Roger?

在開始——我們開始問答環節之前，Roger 和我想先就 2019 年第四季與全年表現提供概覽與一些評論，並分享我們對未來幾季的看法。Roger 將先回顧我們 2019 年第四季與全年財務表現，並補充短期展望；我將以一些額外評論完成開場，包括目前的商業環境以及我們未來的業務展望。謝謝。Roger？

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first highlight some of the fourth quarter and full year financial accomplishments and then provide our guidance for the first quarter of 2020.

謝謝你，Peter，也歡迎各位。我將先重點說明第四季與全年在財務上的一些成果，接著提供我們對 2020 年第一季的指引。

Q4 results were basically in line with our guidance. Net sales came in at EUR 4 billion. Net system sales of EUR 3.1 billion was heavily weighted towards Logic at 83%, with the remaining 17% from Memory, clearly showing the continued strength of Logic business as well as the ongoing digestion phase of the Memory business. We reported EUV system sales of EUR 922 million from 8 shipments.

第四季結果基本符合我們的指引。淨銷售額為 40 億歐元。淨系統銷售額為 31 億歐元，其中邏輯（Logic）占比高達 83%，其餘 17% 來自記憶體（Memory），清楚顯示邏輯業務持續強勁，以及記憶體業務仍處於去化／消化階段。我們報告 EUV 系統銷售額為 9.22 億歐元，來自 8 台出貨。

Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 906 million. Gross margin for the quarter was 48.1%.

本季裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）銷售額為 9.06 億歐元。本季毛利率為 48.1%。

Overall, operating expenses came in above our guidance, with R&D expenses at EUR 516 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 148 million. Higher than guided SG&A is due to additional employee benefit costs and costs related to our IT implementation.

整體而言，營業費用高於我們的指引，其中研發費用為 5.16 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政（SG&A）費用為 1.48 億歐元。SG&A 高於指引主要是因為額外的員工福利成本，以及與我們 IT 導入相關的成本。

Turning to the balance sheet, EUR 186 million worth of shares were repurchased in Q4. We ended last quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 4.7 billion. This amount is significantly higher than anticipated with most of the cash coming in, in the December period.

談到資產負債表，第四季回購股票金額為 1.86 億歐元。上季末我們的現金、約當現金與短期投資為 47 億歐元。此金額顯著高於預期，且大部分現金流入發生在 12 月期間。

Moving to the order book, Q4 system bookings came in at EUR 2.4 billion, including EUR 1.1 billion for 9 EUV systems. Logic order intake was 79% of the total value, with the remaining 21% from Memory, again, reflecting the continued strong Logic demand for our leading-edge lithography.

接著看訂單簿，第四季系統接單金額為 24 億歐元，其中包含 9 台 EUV 系統、合計 11 億歐元。邏輯訂單占總價值的 79%，其餘 21% 來自記憶體，再次反映邏輯客戶對我們先進微影技術的持續強勁需求。

Net income in Q4 was EUR 1.134 billion, representing 28.1% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 2.70. For the full year, net sales grew 8% to EUR 11.8 billion. The Installed Base Management sales was EUR 2.8 billion, which was a small increase compared to previous year.

第四季淨利為 11.34 億歐元，占淨銷售額的 28.1%，每股盈餘（EPS）為 2.70 歐元。全年淨銷售額成長 8%，達 118 億歐元。裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）銷售額為 28 億歐元，較前一年小幅增加。

In 2019, we booked EUR 6.2 billion of EUV orders, which is more than 50% of the total bookings value for the year, reflecting customers' strong demand for EUV technology. We continue to invest in the future of ASML and increased R&D spend to EUR 2 billion in 2019. The increase was primarily driven by the acceleration of our EUV road map, low and High-NA program. Overall R&D investments as a percentage of 2019 sales was about 17%, SG&A was about 4% of sales.

2019 年我們取得 62 億歐元的 EUV 訂單，超過全年總接單價值的 50%，反映客戶對 EUV 技術的強勁需求。我們持續投資 ASML 的未來，並在 2019 年將研發支出提高至 20 億歐元。增加主要由 EUV 路線圖加速所帶動，包括 Low 與 High-NA 計畫。整體研發投資占 2019 年銷售額約 17%，SG&A 約占銷售額 4%。

In addition, ASML invested EUR 886 million in CapEx supporting our long-term growth opportunities primarily around High-NA capacity and infrastructure.

此外，ASML 在資本支出（CapEx）方面投資 8.86 億歐元，以支持我們的長期成長機會，主要聚焦於 High-NA 產能與基礎設施。

Net income for the full year was EUR 2.6 billion, resulting in 21.9% of net sales and an EPS of EUR 6.16.

全年淨利為 26 億歐元，占淨銷售額的 21.9%，每股盈餘（EPS）為 6.16 歐元。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the first quarter of 2020. We expect Q1 total net sales between EUR 3.1 billion and EUR 3.3 billion. We expect our Q1 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 950 million driven by strong demand for field upgrades, especially EUV.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2020 年第一季的預期。我們預期第一季淨銷售總額介於 31 億至 33 億歐元。我們預期第一季裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）銷售額約為 9.5 億歐元，主要由現場升級（field upgrades）的強勁需求所帶動，尤其是 EUV。

Gross margin for Q1 is expected to be between 46% and 47%. The lower gross margin relative to the strong Q4 number is primarily due to Deep UV mix effect, fewer immersion and more drive systems with some positive EUV mix effect.

第一季毛利率預期介於 46% 至 47%。相較於第四季強勁數字，毛利率較低主要是因為深紫外（Deep UV）產品組合效應：浸潤式（immersion）較少、乾式（dry）系統較多，同時也有一些正向的 EUV 組合效應。

The expected R&D expenses for Q1 are around EUR 550 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at around EUR 140 million. Our estimated 2020 annualized effective tax rate is around 13%.

第一季預期研發費用約為 5.5 億歐元，SG&A 預期約為 1.4 億歐元。我們估計 2020 年年化有效稅率約為 13%。

Regarding our capital return, ASML paid total dividends of EUR 1.3 billion that made up of the 2018 dividend and 2019 interim dividend, and purchased EUR 410 million worth of shares in 2019.

關於資本回饋，ASML 支付的股利總額為 13 億歐元，包含 2018 年股利與 2019 年中期股利，並於 2019 年回購價值 4.10 億歐元的股票。

Through December 31, 2019, ASML acquired 9 million shares of the 2018-2019 program for a total amount of EUR 1.6 billion. Supported by our long-term business plan, ASML will submit a proposal at the 2020 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders to declare a dividend for 2019 of EUR 2.40 per ordinary share. Recognizing the interim dividend of EUR 1.05 paid in November 2019, this leads to a final dividend of EUR 1.35 to be paid in the second quarter. This is a 14% increase compared to the 2018 dividend. The 2020 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders will take place on April 22 in Veldhoven.

截至 2019 年 12 月 31 日，ASML 在 2018-2019 計畫下已回購 900 萬股，總金額為 16 億歐元。在我們長期業務計畫的支持下，ASML 將在 2020 年股東週年大會上提出提案，宣告 2019 年每股普通股股利為 2.40 歐元。考量 2019 年 11 月已支付的每股 1.05 歐元中期股利，這將導致每股期末股利為 1.35 歐元，預計於第二季支付。相較於 2018 年股利，這代表增加 14%。2020 年股東週年大會將於 4 月 22 日在費爾德霍芬舉行。

ASML announces a 3-year share buyback program of up to EUR 6 billion to be executed in 2020 through 2022. ASML intends to cancel these shares after repurchase with the exception of up to 0.4 million shares, which will be used to cover employee share plans.

ASML 宣布一項為期 3 年的庫藏股回購計畫，回購金額最高達 60 億歐元，將於 2020 年至 2022 年期間執行。ASML 擬於回購後註銷這些股份，但最多保留 40 萬股例外，將用於滿足員工持股計畫。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter.

接下來，我想把電話交回給 Peter。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, we had a very strong quarter, resulting in another solid year of growth driven by Logic and EUV. We were able to achieve an 8% top line growth despite an overall industry decline of around 10% due to a weak Memory market. There's always a reflection of our Logic customers drive to continue to innovate and invest in technology for future nodes. For 2020, we currently expect a year of double-digit growth in both sales and profitability primarily driven by EUV and installed base business.

謝謝你，Roger。如 Roger 所強調，我們本季表現非常強勁，在邏輯（Logic）與 EUV 的帶動下，帶來又一個穩健成長年度。儘管整體產業因記憶體（Memory）市場疲弱而下滑約 10%，我們仍達成營收年增 8%。這也反映出我們的邏輯客戶持續推動創新，並投資於未來節點技術。對於 2020 年，我們目前預期銷售與獲利皆將呈現雙位數成長，主要由 EUV 與裝機基礎（installed base）業務所驅動。

Major innovation drivers such as artificial intelligence, 5G, high-performance compute, autonomous driving and big data are creating new end-user applications, and these applications require more high-performance Logic, fueling increased demand for leading-edge nodes. And this is evident in several customer announcements regarding ramp plans for the 7- and 5-nanometer nodes, which will drive another strong Logic year and an increased demand for EUV.

人工智慧、5G、高效能運算、自動駕駛與大數據等主要創新驅動因素正在創造新的終端應用，而這些應用需要更高效能的邏輯晶片，進而推升先進製程節點的需求。這點可從多家客戶針對 7 奈米與 5 奈米節點的量產爬坡計畫之公告中看出，這將帶動又一個強勁的邏輯年度，並提升對 EUV 的需求。

In the Memory market, the customers have indicated they're seeing signs of demand recovery in some market channels, and improvements in Memory chip pricing also support this view.

在記憶體市場方面，客戶表示他們在部分市場通路已看到需求回溫的跡象，而記憶體晶片價格的改善也支持此一看法。

As customers have lowered litho tool utilization to reduce wafer output throughout the weak Memory demand period, they will first use this underutilization to return to normal supply levels, which will take some time. Subsequently, this will also trigger equipment demand, albeit a bit later than the supply/demand recovery for Memory devices. Taking the slope of the recovery of our litho equipment utilization as a proxy, it seems likely that we will see stronger litho equipment demand for Memory in the second half of the year.

由於客戶在記憶體需求疲弱期間降低了微影設備的稼動率以減少晶圓產出，他們將先利用這部分未充分使用的產能來恢復至正常供應水準，這需要一些時間。隨後才會帶動設備需求，但時間點會比記憶體元件供需回升稍晚一些。以我們微影設備稼動率復甦的斜率作為代理指標來看，我們很可能會在下半年看到記憶體領域對微影設備的需求轉強。

We expect significant growth in our installed base business, service business will continue to scale as our installed base grows, and we'll also see EUV contribute to service revenue as these systems start running wafers and volume manufacturing now. We expect significant demand for upgrades, particularly in EUV, as customers utilize upgrades as a quick way to increase capacity. In EUV, it was a breakthrough year, with the technology now starting in high-volume production and producing consumer products that are already available in the market.

我們預期裝機基礎業務將顯著成長；隨著裝機基礎擴大，服務業務也將持續擴張；此外，隨著這些 EUV 系統開始跑片並進入量產，EUV 也將開始貢獻服務營收。我們預期升級需求將相當可觀，尤其是在 EUV，因為客戶會將升級視為快速提升產能的方式。在 EUV 方面，這是突破性的一年，技術現已開始進入高量產，並生產出市場上已可取得的消費性產品。

As we continue to execute on our accelerated EUV road map, we were able to ship our first NXE 3400C in 2019, which provides high productivity, translating to increased customer value, delivering higher ASPs and improved gross margins. We shipped 6 3400C systems in Q4 of the 8 EUV systems total we shipped in the quarter, bringing the total to 26 EUV systems and full year sales of around EUR 2.8 billion in 2019.

隨著我們持續執行加速的 EUV 路線圖，我們在 2019 年出貨了首台 NXE 3400C，提供高生產力，轉化為更高的客戶價值，並帶來更高的平均銷售單價（ASP）與更佳的毛利率。我們在第四季出貨的 8 台 EUV 系統中，有 6 台為 3400C，使 EUV 系統累計出貨達 26 台，2019 全年 EUV 銷售約 28 億歐元。

Increasing customer confidence in the EUV is translating into more layers in Logic production as well as expanding to new markets with the adoption in Memory. For full year 2020, we plan for EUV sales of around EUR 4.5 billion on 35 systems. We continue to see demand building for next year's shipments and expect a healthy order flow to continue.

客戶對 EUV 的信心提升，正轉化為邏輯量產中更多層數的導入，並且隨著記憶體採用而擴展至新市場。就 2020 全年而言，我們規劃 EUV 銷售約 45 億歐元、共 35 台系統。我們持續看到對明年出貨的需求正在累積，並預期健康的接單動能將延續。

In order to fulfill the expected strong demand increase, we're working on the cycle time reduction to enable a capacity of 45 to 50 systems next year. 2021 is shaping up to be a very busy year.

為了滿足預期的強勁需求成長，我們正致力於縮短週期時間（cycle time），以在明年達到 45 至 50 台系統的產能。2021 年看起來將會非常忙碌。

Regarding our current outlook for the year, we expect 2020 to be another growth year as mentioned before. Although it's too early to provide quantitative expectations, let me make a few qualitative comments.

關於我們目前對今年的展望，如先前所述，我們預期 2020 年將是另一個成長年度。雖然現在提供量化預期仍為時過早，但我先做幾點質化評論。

Major innovation drivers and applications that require high-performance Logic are driving increased demand at the advanced nodes. Logic demand is currently strong, and we expect this demand to remain healthy primarily driven by EUV. And as previously communicated, we expect sales of EUR 4.5 billion on 35 systems this year, which translates to EUV sales growth of approximately 60%.

需要高效能邏輯的主要創新驅動因素與應用，正推動先進節點需求增加。目前邏輯需求強勁，我們預期此需求將維持健康，主要由 EUV 所帶動。並且如先前所溝通，我們預期今年 EUV 銷售為 45 億歐元、35 台系統，換算為 EUV 銷售約成長 60%。

Memory is showing early signs of recovery. And although there's still uncertainty around exact timing of the recovery, it is likely we will see stronger demand in the second half of the year. And taking this into account, we expect a stronger second half with strengthening sales throughout the year.

記憶體已出現初步復甦跡象。雖然復甦的確切時間點仍存在不確定性，但我們很可能會在下半年看到需求轉強。考量這點，我們預期下半年將更強勁，全年銷售將逐步走強。

Summary, 2019 was another great year, with continued positive momentum in EUV as well as short demand across our entire product portfolio. We expect another growth year supported by healthy Logic demand and likely recovery of the Memory market, with increased sales from our installed base business as well as demand for EUV. The positive industry momentum around innovation and expanding new markets further strengthens our confidence in 2021 outlook and our 2025 growth scenarios.

總結來說，2019 年又是非常出色的一年，EUV 持續展現正向動能，且我們整體產品組合皆呈現強勁需求。在健康的邏輯需求與記憶體市場可能復甦的支持下，我們預期將迎來另一個成長年度；同時，裝機基礎業務的銷售增加以及對 EUV 的需求也將提供支撐。產業在創新與新市場擴張方面的正向動能，進一步強化我們對 2021 年展望以及 2025 年成長情境的信心。

With that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

接下來，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

Thank you, Peter and Roger. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Now, operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

謝謝你，Peter 與 Roger。接線員將稍後向各位說明問答環節的流程。(接線員指示) 現在，接線員，請提供最後的說明，然後開始第一個問題，謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Mehdi Hosseini.

(接線員指示) 第一個問題來自 Mehdi Hosseini。

My question has to do with your comment regarding EUV manufacturing capacity of 50 system by 2021. Peter, do you think your backlog would reflect that capacity as we progress through the year? In other words, would you be able to have a full commitment from your customer for full capacity? And my short follow-up has to do with your -- the multibeam EUV wafer inspection. Are we still on target for the first shipment in the first half? And how should we think about the time it would take for your customers to evaluate the tool?

我的問題與你們提到 2021 年 EUV 製造產能達到 50 台系統的評論有關。Peter，你認為隨著今年進展，你們的在手訂單（backlog）會反映出那樣的產能嗎？換句話說，你們是否能從客戶那裡取得對滿載產能的完整承諾？另外一個簡短追問是關於你們的——多束（multibeam）EUV 晶圓檢測。我們是否仍按計畫在上半年進行首批出貨？以及我們應如何看待客戶評估該設備所需的時間？

Okay, Mehdi, thanks. On the EUV capacity, yes, I think the backlog will reflect this. I think the order intake on EUV is looking very healthy. So I have little doubt that we'll have the backlog fill this year to support the capacity that we have lined out now for 2021. I think the issue here is really we need to reduce the cycle time, which we have good plans for. I mean we see first progress. I think the focus is on cycle time reduction in this case. MB, multibeam inspection, yes, we will ship in the first half. And I think the customers will probably take throughout this year to evaluate the tool so that we can start shipping next year in higher volume.

好的，Mehdi，謝謝。關於 EUV 產能，是的，我認為在手訂單會反映這點。我認為 EUV 的接單看起來非常健康。因此我幾乎不懷疑，我們今年的在手訂單會補足，以支撐我們目前為 2021 年規劃的產能。我認為這裡真正的議題是我們需要縮短週期時間，而我們對此有很好的計畫。我們已看到初步進展。在這個情況下，重點就是縮短週期時間。至於 MB（多束）檢測，是的，我們會在上半年出貨。我認為客戶可能會用今年一整年來評估該設備，以便我們明年開始以更高的量出貨。

The next question is from Mr. David Mulholland.

下一個問題來自 David Mulholland 先生。

It is Dave Mulholland from UBS. Just to follow-up on some of the comments you made around Memory. Obviously, there are some indicators, things are improving. I think some of the checks we've been doing through the supply chain are certainly pointing to improved capacity plans particularly potentially from Q2. When do you think you could start seeing that in orders? And I guess in some respects, why haven't we already seen some of it in Q4? And then I'll come back with a follow-up.

我是 UBS 的 Dave Mulholland。想追問你們對記憶體的一些評論。顯然有一些指標顯示情況正在改善。我想我們透過供應鏈所做的一些查核，確實指向產能規劃正在改善，特別可能從第二季開始。你認為何時會開始在訂單上看到這點？另外某種程度上，為什麼我們在第四季還沒有看到其中一部分？然後我會再回來做一個追問。

Yes. Thanks, David. It's a good question. I wish I had a definite answer because that would make things easier. So I'm basically saying, we have -- when we -- when I said in my prepared remarks that we see the utilization of our tools going up, and we just extrapolate the slope of utilization increase. And I think it would mean at the end of the first half of this year, we will see likely a return to a normal supply/demand balance for our customers. Now they see that also and taking into account the order delivery times, the order lead times, then I would expect orders have to come in somewhere in Q2 in order for us to make sure that in the second half of the year, we could see an increase of our Memory business.

是的。謝謝你，David。這是個好問題。我希望我有一個明確的答案，因為那會讓事情更容易。所以我基本上是說，我們有——當我們——當我在事先準備的發言中提到我們看到工具利用率在上升時，我們只是把利用率上升的斜率外推。我認為這意味著在今年上半年結束時，我們很可能會看到客戶端回到正常的供需平衡。現在他們也看到了這一點，並且把訂單交付時間、訂單前置期考慮進去，那麼我預期為了確保在下半年我們能看到記憶體業務的成長，訂單必須在第二季的某個時間點回來。

Again, we're in this business for quite a long time, and in my experience, Memory always comes back with a vengeance. They -- when it comes, it always comes quick, so we'll just have to wait. So I think it makes a big difference whether orders come back in Q2 or they come back in Q1 or in early Q3, I mean it makes a big difference for the year. So we just have to wait and see, and I wish I had a final and definite answer.

再說一次，我們在這個產業已經很久了，依我的經驗，記憶體總是會強勢反彈。它——一旦回來，通常來得很快，所以我們只能等待。所以我認為，訂單是在第二季回來，或是在第一季回來，或是在第三季初回來，對全年會有很大的差別。所以我們只能拭目以待，我也希望我能給出一個最終且明確的答案。

Okay. And just one, second follow-up on the Installed Base Management business. Obviously, a very strong run rate in Q1 at EUR 950 million. How do you think about this on a full year basis? In the past, you've had a target, I think, of EUR 3.7 billion but been slightly more conservative run rate through the last couple of years. What's driving the pickup in Q1? How should we think about that on a full year basis?

好的。另外再追問一個，關於已裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）業務。顯然第一季的穩態營收（run rate）非常強勁，達到9.5億歐元。你們如何看待全年層面？過去你們有一個目標，我記得是37億歐元，但過去幾年你們的穩態營收略為保守。第一季的回升是由什麼驅動？我們應該如何在全年層面看待？

David, I think the -- if you look at Q1 and also if you look at Q4, you see that the momentum was already building up in Q4, where we were already slightly over EUR 900 million, EUR 950 million for the quarter. We expect that we will not be able to sustain it at this level for the entire year. I think a good way to go would be to say that we're probably going to see a 20% increase over last year annualized. So that would get you to approximately EUR 3.4 billion for the year. That's where we would see it for the for the full year.

David，我認為——如果你看第一季，也看第四季，你會看到動能其實在第四季就已經開始累積，當時我們單季已經略高於9億歐元，接近9.5億歐元。我們預期無法在全年都維持在這個水準。我認為一個好的方式是說，我們全年年化後大概會比去年成長20%。那樣全年大約會到34億歐元。這就是我們對全年所看到的水準。

The next question comes from Mr. C. Muse.

下一個問題來自C. Muse先生。

C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI. I guess first, I was hoping to hit on gross margins. Can you walk through where we exited on EUV in the fourth quarter? And then how you are seeing the trajectory for overall gross margins through the year, increased EUV shipments as well as likely higher immersion shipments in the back half for DRAM?

我是Evercore ISI的C.J. Muse。我想首先想談一下毛利率。你能說明一下第四季EUV的毛利率收在什麼水準嗎？以及你如何看待今年整體毛利率的走勢，包含EUV出貨增加，以及下半年DRAM可能會有更高的浸潤式（immersion）出貨？

Yes. Thank you, C.J. So let me first talk about gross margin for EUV and then give you the wider picture on gross margin. So on EUV, what we said, as you know, last year, on the systems side, systems gross margin for EUV, we're looking at about 30%, this year, we're looking at about 40%, 4-0. So that's what we have in the plan, and that's what we're executing for, and that's also in our models for this year.

是的。謝謝你，C.J. 我先談EUV的毛利率，然後再給你整體毛利率的更大圖景。關於EUV，如你所知，我們去年在系統端，EUV系統毛利率大約是30%；今年我們看大約40%，也就是4-0。這就是我們計畫中的數字，也是我們正在執行的目標，同時也已反映在我們今年的模型中。

On the wider picture for gross margin, and I know that many of you are looking at the Capital Markets Day. At the Capital Markets Day, we mentioned 50%. So let me start there, let me start at the 50% and let's look at what the circumstances were at the time, what the circumstances are today, and then we will start talking about how we see this to unfold and what the potential is that we see for this year.

就整體毛利率的大方向而言，我知道你們很多人都在看資本市場日（Capital Markets Day）。在資本市場日上，我們提到50%。所以我先從50%開始，回頭看當時的情境、今天的情境，然後再談我們認為接下來會如何發展，以及我們對今年所看到的潛力。

So back in November -- at the Capital Markets Day in November 2018, I think there are 3 things that we should bear in mind. First off, at that stage -- what we modeled at that stage for you, and that had the 50% in there was what we called a mid-market growth scenario. And I think in all likelihood if we look at the circumstances today, if we look at the circumstances of the Memory market today, then I think it will be hard to say that for the full year, we're looking at a mid-market scenario. It's definitely not what we're looking at today, depending on when it's going to come back, and as Peter said, how it's going to come back. You could, on average, see a mid-market scenario. But at this stage, I think it's hard to say that we're looking at a mid-market scenario for that. At this stage, the Memory market in these months is fairly flat. So that's one important circumstance I think to recognize.

回到11月——在2018年11月的資本市場日，我認為有三件事需要記住。第一，當時——我們給你們建模的情境（其中包含50%）是我們所謂的「中等市場成長」情境。而我認為，如果看今天的情況、看今天記憶體市場的情況，要說全年仍是中等市場情境，恐怕很難。這絕對不是我們今天所看到的狀況，取決於它何時回來，以及如Peter所說，它會如何回來。你可能在平均上會看到一個中等市場情境。但在此刻，我認為很難說我們正處於那樣的中等市場情境。目前這幾個月記憶體市場相當平坦。所以這是我認為需要認知的一個重要情況。

The second thing that I think changed from November 2018, and I think Peter already responded to that in the first question, is the multibeam. So the delay in the multibeam, we're -- I think we're going to see commercial application and commercial sales of multibeam only in 2021, we're at a Capital Markets Day, as you know and as we already told you also last year, we were still looking for 2020 as commercial application of multibeam. So that's, in essence, shifted with a little under 1 year. So that's the second circumstance to bear in mind.

第二個我認為相較2018年11月有所改變的事情，而且我想Peter在第一個問題中已經回應過，就是多束（multibeam）。由於多束的延遲，我們——我認為我們要到2021年才會看到多束的商業化應用與商業銷售；而在資本市場日上，如你所知、也如我們去年已告訴你們的，當時我們仍以2020年作為多束的商業化應用時間點。所以本質上，這往後推遲了不到一年。這是第二個需要記住的情況。

The third thing that deviates a little bit from what we told you in the Capital Markets Day in November 2018 is a bit of accounting issue, and that has to do with High-NA. We are preparing for High-NA not just on the R&D side, but we're also preparing for High-NA on the manufacturing side and on the supply chain side. And we are incurring cost there that we cannot capitalize and have to run through cost of sales, which is a bit weird because we're not selling High-NA, but nonetheless, that's what the accounting will dictate you to do. And that represents a little short of 1% alone in gross margin. So those are 3 things to bear in mind that might be different from the perspective and the model that existed in November 2018.

第三個與我們在2018年11月資本市場日所說略有不同的是一個會計議題，與高數值孔徑（High-NA）有關。我們為High-NA做準備不僅在研發端，也在製造端與供應鏈端做準備。而我們在那裡產生了一些成本，無法資本化，必須計入銷貨成本，這有點奇怪，因為我們並沒有在銷售High-NA，但會計規範仍要求你這麼做。而這單獨就會讓毛利率少了接近1%。所以這三件事需要記住，它們可能與2018年11月當時的觀點與模型有所不同。

So now let's look at this year, and let's look at the 46% to 47% that we have for Q1, and let's look at the potential for the rest of the year. And I think there's a number of drivers in there that I think could further drive the gross margin up. The first one obviously is related to the situation in the Memory market, and that is pretty important, not just for the top line but it's also very important for gross margin. Because if we see a solid recovery in the second half of the Memory market, that will have a significant impact on the sale of immersion tools, which, as all of you know, comes with pretty high gross margin and also with a good recovery in our voltage contrast business, which, as you know, is also very much tied to the Memory business. And again, that is a very high-margin product that we have. So if we get the recovery in the Memory market, that will also have a significant impact on the gross margin on those 2 elements alone.

那麼現在來看今年，看看我們第一季的46%到47%，以及看看今年其餘時間的潛力。我認為其中有若干驅動因素，可能會進一步推升毛利率。第一個顯然與記憶體市場的情況有關，而且這非常重要，不僅影響營收，也對毛利率非常重要。因為如果我們在下半年看到記憶體市場的穩健復甦，將會對浸潤式設備的銷售產生顯著影響；如各位所知，這類設備的毛利率相當高，同時也會帶動我們電壓對比（voltage contrast）業務的良好復甦，而如你們所知，這也與記憶體業務高度相關。而且同樣地，這也是我們一個高毛利的產品。所以如果記憶體市場復甦，光是這兩個要素就會對毛利率帶來顯著影響。

The second element that will -- that is expected to further drive up the gross margin throughout the year is the EUV service. EUV service for the full year is still expected to be -- to have negative gross margin. But over the quarter-over-quarter, you will see a sustained improvement in the gross margin that we have on EUV service. For 2 reasons, first off, because, as you know, with a number of customers we have the pay-per-wafer model. And to the extent that EUV continues to go into high-volume manufacturing, obviously we get more revenue. And secondly, the cost that we have per EUV machine goes down because we get more efficient in doing it, and we also get scale effects as a result of that.

預期將在全年進一步推升毛利率的第二個因素是 EUV 服務。全年 EUV 服務仍預期將—將呈現負毛利率。但就季度環比而言，您將會看到我們 EUV 服務毛利率的持續改善。原因有二：首先，如您所知，我們與多家客戶採用按晶圓計費（pay-per-wafer）模式。在 EUV 持續導入高量產（high-volume manufacturing）的情況下，顯然我們會取得更多營收。其次，我們每台 EUV 機台的成本會下降，因為我們在執行上更有效率，同時也會因規模效應而受益。

So quarter-over-quarter, you will see that the EUV service margin will improve. For the full year, it's still negative, but at least in Q4, maybe even a little before that, we will see that it starts to become positive.

因此，季度環比來看，您會看到 EUV 服務毛利率將改善。全年仍為負值，但至少在第四季，甚至可能更早一些，我們會看到它開始轉為正值。

Third improvement that we expect to occur in the course of this year will be the introduction of our new immersion tool, the 250 -- the NXT:2050, which, again, comes with a good improvement of our gross margin. So those are 3 significant drivers that we have, that we believe give us a good shot at achieving a significant improvement of our gross margin particularly in the half and a good shot at the 50%.

我們預期今年過程中會出現的第三項改善，是推出我們新的浸潤式（immersion）機台 250—NXT:2050；同樣地，這也會帶來我們毛利率的良好提升。因此，我們認為這三個重要驅動因素，讓我們很有機會實現毛利率的顯著改善，特別是在下半年，並且很有機會達到 50%。

And then this 50%, we will be able to then sustain further into 2021, which, as Peter already alluded to, we think is going to be a very busy year. And a very busy year at that stage would also come with a number of scale benefits in our gross margin, better fixed cost coverage. And also in 2021, we would see the introduction of a successor to EUV that would also again, come with gross margin improvement. So then we think that momentum that would be created in the second half around reaching the 50% would then be further sustained and elaborated on into 2021 time frame.

接著，這個 50% 我們也將能在 2021 年進一步維持；正如 Peter 先前提到的，我們認為 2021 年會非常忙碌。而在那個階段非常忙碌的一年，也會為我們的毛利率帶來多項規模效益、更好的固定成本吸收。此外在 2021 年，我們也會看到 EUV 後繼機種的導入，這同樣會帶來毛利率改善。因此，我們認為下半年圍繞達到 50% 所形成的動能，將在 2021 年期間進一步延續並深化。

Very, very helpful. If I may follow up. I think the buyback announcement, as we're moving into high-volume manufacturing EUV, seems to be a bit of an inflection here for ASML begin the cash cow mode. So curious if there are metrics that we should be looking at whether it's free cash flow margins or working on working capital or perhaps CapEx intensity coming down as you've invested in EUV capacity, High-NA, multibeam. So curious if there's kind of a metric we should be looking at to gauge free cash flow in the coming years.

非常、非常有幫助。如果我可以追問一下。我認為在我們邁向 EUV 高量產之際，這次庫藏股回購的宣布，似乎是 ASML 開始進入「現金牛」模式的一個拐點。因此我想了解，是否有一些我們應該關注的指標——不論是自由現金流利潤率、營運資金（working capital）的運用，或是隨著你們已投資 EUV 產能、High-NA、多束（multibeam）之後，資本支出強度（CapEx intensity）是否下降。所以想請教是否有某種指標可用來衡量未來幾年的自由現金流。

Yes. And then -- so in the short term, you will see that with the increase in EUV and EUV becoming increasingly important for the company, given the cycle time of EUV is significantly lower than Deep UV, in the short term, you may expect that inventory levels will continue to go up a little bit. That's a dynamic on the one hand. And also in the short term, as you -- as I think we've said before, you might expect that the CapEx level that you've seen for 2019, that will be above the CapEx level that you might expect for this year and for next year. So around EUR 900 million to EUR 1 billion is the CapEx number that we think is likely for this year and for next year. So those are dynamics in, I would say, in the short term.

是的。那麼——短期來看，隨著 EUV 增加且 EUV 對公司愈來愈重要，鑑於 EUV 的週期時間（cycle time）顯著低於深紫外（Deep UV），短期內您可能會預期庫存水位會再小幅上升。這是一方面的動態。另外短期內，正如——我想我們之前也說過，您可能會預期 2019 年所見的資本支出水準，會高於您對今年與明年的資本支出水準預期。因此，我們認為今年與明年的資本支出大約可能落在 9 億至 10 億歐元。所以我會說，這些都是短期的動態。

In the years thereafter, I expect CapEx level to level off and actually go down because then the significant preparation for our future, I think, CapEx-wise, I think will have been done and will be able to go down. Also I would expect that in 1- to 2-year time frame, you might expect inventory levels to go down for a number of reasons. First off, at that stage, we talked about 2021, there is a significant buildup of our capacity for EUV. But once you are there and once you are at those levels, then the further buildup of inventory will no longer have an impact on your inventory levels.

在之後的年度，我預期資本支出水準會趨於持平，甚至實際上會下降，因為屆時我們為未來所做的重大準備——就資本支出而言——我認為將已完成，因而能夠下滑。同時我也預期在 1 到 2 年的時間範圍內，庫存水位可能會因多項原因而下降。首先，在那個階段——我們談到 2021 年——我們的 EUV 產能會有顯著的擴增。但一旦達到那個水準、且處於那些產能等級之後，庫存的進一步累積就不會再對您的庫存水位造成影響。

And secondly, as we mentioned before, the way we believe we will be able to get an increase in our capacity from the 35-ish that we have for this year to the 45, 50 that we talked about for 2021 will primarily be the reduction of cycle time. And of course, the reduction of cycle time will then kick in and further reduce working capital requirement.

其次，如我們先前提到的，我們相信能將產能從今年約 35 台提升到 2021 年所談到的 45、50 台，主要方式將是縮短週期時間（cycle time）。當然，週期時間的縮短屆時也會發揮作用，進一步降低對營運資金的需求。

So in the short term, I think the burden on working capital will still be there. In the longer run, so let's say, 1.5, 2 years, you will see that we will be able to get it under control better.

因此短期內，我認為營運資金的負擔仍會存在。長期來看——比方說 1.5 到 2 年——您會看到我們能更好地將其控制住。

One final dynamic as far as that is concerned, we talked to you in previous calls on the introduction of down payments for EUV, which we're pushing and where we had the initial accomplishments on that in 2019, and we'll continue to drive that. And that will also be a mitigating factor, if you like, in our working capital burden. So long-winding answer, just to tell you that in spite of all of that and in spite of this preparation for the growth, we're still looking at a pretty healthy free cash flow development, both this year and next year. And then the years thereafter, I think the free cash flow that we generate will further increase substantially. And all of that taken together gives us more than enough comfort to introduce this EUR 6 billion program for the next 3 years.

就此還有最後一個動態：我們在先前的電話會議中曾與各位談到 EUV 預付款（down payments）的導入，我們正在推動此事，並且在 2019 年已取得初步成果，未來也會持續推進。這也將成為——如果您願意這麼說——緩解我們營運資金負擔的因素。所以這是一個較長的回答，只是想告訴您：儘管有上述因素、也儘管我們正在為成長做準備，我們仍預期今年與明年的自由現金流發展相當健康。而在之後的年度，我認為我們所產生的自由現金流將會大幅進一步增加。綜合以上，讓我們有充分的信心推出未來三年的 60 億歐元計畫。

Next question, Krish Sankar.

下一個問題，Krish Sankar。

It's Krish Sankar from Cowen. I had two questions. First one, on EUV. So Peter, it looks like your commentary on 2020 EUV of 35 systems at EUR 4.5 billion revenue and next year about 45 to 50 systems capacity is similar to about 3 months ago. I was in the impression that over the last 3 months, at the margin, there was more incremental demand from DRAM for EUV. So I'm just wondering, is it an issue that you're still capacity-constrained and that's why you cannot ship more? Or are you being conservative? And then my second question is, how to think about DUV units this year relative to 2019, would it be similar levels, lower, higher? Any color would be helpful.

我是 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。我有兩個問題。第一個關於 EUV。Peter，看起來你對 2020 年 EUV 的評論——35 套系統、45 億歐元營收——以及明年約 45 到 50 套的產能，與大約 3 個月前相近。我的印象是過去 3 個月，邊際上來自 DRAM 對 EUV 的增量需求更高。所以我想問，是因為你們仍受產能限制、因此無法出貨更多嗎？還是你們比較保守？第二個問題是，今年 DUV 出貨量相對於 2019 年該如何看待？會是相近水準、更低、還是更高？任何補充說明都會很有幫助。

Yes. On your first question, I actually -- I tried to answer that in an earlier question that the issue with 2021 is to make sure that we can reduce the cycle time so much that we can create a capacity between 45 and 50 units, which is a capacity issue, not a demand issue. So yes, DRAM will be there. I would just have to make sure that we can squeeze as many EUV systems out of our available square meters so that we can fulfill the customer demand. It's not a demand issue, it's a capacity issue.

是的。關於第一個問題，我其實——我在先前的問題中試著回答過：2021 年的關鍵在於確保我們能大幅縮短週期時間，從而創造 45 到 50 台的產能；這是產能問題，不是需求問題。所以是的，DRAM 的需求會在。我只是必須確保我們能在現有可用的廠房面積內擠出盡可能多的 EUV 系統，以滿足客戶需求。這不是需求問題，而是產能問題。

So in joined essence, that's why the commentary is similar to what we did last quarter because the capacity lead time, fortunately, is a lot longer than just the customer order lead time.

因此，歸根結底，這就是為什麼我們的評論與上季相似，因為產能的前置時間（lead time）幸運地比客戶訂單的前置時間長得多。

Now on the DPV units, good question. Very much changes on, and Roger said it, on the recovery of the Memory market, yes? So the Memory is still very much driven by immersion. Of course, we are seeing with the increased number of EUV systems in Logics on cannibalization because of multiple patterning schemes that will actually move on to single patterning EUV schemes.

現在談到DPV機台，這是個好問題。這在很大程度上取決於記憶體市場的復甦，沒錯？Roger也提到了。因此，記憶體仍然在很大程度上由浸潤式技術所驅動。當然，隨著邏輯晶片領域EUV系統數量增加，我們也看到因多重圖形化方案轉向單次圖形化EUV方案而產生的排擠效應。

Now -- so if we would not see a recovery of the Memory business, which I do not expect, because we do expect recovery, clearly, the Deep UV units would be down. But it's really the timing of the Memory recovery that will determine how much of the Deep UV units we are going to see this year. As I said, it is really hinging on the timing of the Memory recovery.

那麼——如果我們看不到記憶體業務的復甦（我不預期會這樣，因為我們確實預期會復甦），深紫外（Deep UV）機台出貨量就會下滑。但真正決定今年我們會看到多少深紫外機台的，是記憶體復甦的時間點。如我所說，這真的取決於記憶體復甦的時點。

The next question, Alexander Duval.

下一個問題，Alexander Duval。

Alex from Goldman Sachs. I just wanted to ask or clarify on the extra R&D and SG&A for the first quarter that you've guided to versus where the street was? And just wondered if you could help decompose a bit the most important drivers and sort of what underpins them? For example, to what extent is this more about investing in faster cycle times for those 50 or 45 to 50 units in '22 -- '21? To what extent is it about increasing functionality of future EUV versions as we move beyond the 3400C? And to what extent does it hinge on any other key factors?

我是高盛的Alex。我想詢問或釐清一下，你們對第一季所指引的額外研發（R&D）與銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A），相較於市場預期的差異？也想請你們協助拆解一下最重要的驅動因素，以及其背後的依據是什麼？例如，這在多大程度上是為了投資於更快的週期時間，以支援2022年——或2021年——那45到50台（或50台）的產出？在多大程度上是為了在我們超越3400C之後，提升未來EUV版本的功能性？以及在多大程度上取決於其他關鍵因素？

So on R&D, last quarter, we were at EUR 516 million, this quarter, we're guiding EUR 550 million. And I think that the vast majority of that increase is labor cost increase. As we mentioned before, at this stage, we have about a capacity that we think we need in order to accomplish the R&D objectives that we have, which are all of the things that you just mentioned, but primarily focused on the Low-NA, High-NA road map, multibeam, but also a number of developments in Deep UV, obviously.

關於研發，上季我們是5.16億歐元，本季我們指引為5.50億歐元。我認為其中絕大部分的增加來自人力成本上升。如我們先前提到的，在這個階段，我們認為我們已具備達成研發目標所需的產能；這些目標包含你剛提到的所有事項，但主要聚焦在Low-NA、High-NA路線圖、多光束（multibeam），當然也包括深紫外（Deep UV）的多項開發。

So we think we have the capacity that we need in order to get that done. And that's why we said on previous calls, expect the going out rate for the fourth quarter to be the basis. And then obviously, it needs to be, what we call, inflation-adjusted, which is obviously linked to wage increases for that. And that's what you see. So the 6% increase from EUR 516 million to EUR 550 million really is primarily the wage increase on the R&D department.

因此我們認為，我們已具備完成這些工作的所需產能。這也是為什麼我們在先前的電話會議中說過，第四季的run-rate將作為基礎。然後很明顯地，它需要做我們所謂的通膨調整，而這顯然與薪資調升相關。這就是你所看到的。所以從5.16億歐元到5.50億歐元的6%增幅，主要就是研發部門的薪資上升。

In terms of SG&A, SG&A, I think is modeled at EUR 140 million which is I think very much in line with what you saw in previous quarters. Q4 had a little bit of a spike. There was some accounting adjustments in there in Q4 that had a little impact. And also we're in the process of implementing a new IT system, which has some impact on the SG&A number. But those are small things. But the guidance of EUR 140 million I think is pretty much in line with what we were in previous quarters, and obviously, there to the wage impact.

至於SG&A，我認為模型大約是1.40億歐元，這和你在前幾季看到的水準非常一致。第四季有一點點尖峰。第四季有一些會計調整，帶來了些許影響。另外我們正在導入新的IT系統，這也對SG&A數字有一些影響。但這些都是小因素。因此我認為1.40億歐元的指引大致與前幾季一致，當然也同樣受到薪資影響。

Yes. I think on the wage impact, don't think we give our people 10% wage increase because they will probably raise a lot of questions when people start listening to this call, but it's the combination of the normally inflationary wage increase and the fact that of course we added people in 2019. So you see the full year effect now of that growth in R&D in 2020, which actually happened throughout 2019. But now you see the full year wage impact.

是的。我想就薪資影響而言，不要以為我們給員工10%的加薪，因為當大家開始聽這通電話會議時，他們可能會提出很多問題；實際上是一般的通膨式薪資調升，加上我們在2019年增聘人員的綜合效果。所以你現在看到的是2020年研發擴編的全年效果，而這個擴編其實是在2019年期間逐步發生的。但現在你看到的是全年薪資影響。

Next question is from Joe Quatrochi.

下一個問題來自Joe Quatrochi。

Yes. It's Wells Fargo. I had a question on the Memory side. I know that ASML has historically been more tied to DRAM than NAND. So I was hoping you could kind of help us kind of parse out the comments that you've made in terms of the recovery and seeing potentially improve bookings kind of looking into 2Q. Is that more of a NAND Flash comment? Or should we think about that from a DRAM perspective?

是的。我是富國銀行（Wells Fargo）。我有一個關於記憶體的問題。我知道ASML過去在歷史上與DRAM的連動性高於NAND。所以我希望你們能協助我們解讀你們對復甦的評論，以及展望第二季可能看到接單（bookings）改善的說法。這比較偏向NAND Flash的評論嗎？還是我們應該從DRAM的角度來理解？

Yes. I think if you split the DRAM and NAND, and I only -- like I said, the proxy that we have is basically looking at some utilization data. I think it is first noticeable in 3D NAND. I also think the slope of the recovery is a bit more aggressive in NAND than in DRAM, but they are both there. Having said that, I also mentioned in my prepared remarks that customers were creating underutilization in order to make sure that they could rebalance the supply and the demand in the Memory space sooner. That underutilization correction was also deeper in 3D NAND. So it was also not a big surprise that, of course, the return slope back up is also a bit steeper. So -- but that's where we are. I think 3D NAND started a bit earlier, it's a bit steeper slope, but both are trending in the upward direction.

是的。我想如果把DRAM和NAND拆開來看——而且如我所說，我們的代理指標基本上是看一些產能利用率（utilization）數據。我認為最先明顯的是在3D NAND。我也認為NAND的復甦斜率比DRAM更為積極一些，但兩者都在復甦。話雖如此，我也在事先準備的發言中提到，客戶先前是透過製造低稼動（underutilization）來確保能更快在記憶體領域重新平衡供需。而這種低稼動的修正，在3D NAND也更深。因此也不令人意外的是，回升的斜率也會更陡一些。所以——目前就是這樣。我認為3D NAND開始得更早、斜率更陡，但兩者都呈現向上趨勢。

Okay, that's helpful. And then just for the March quarter guide, I was wondering in the past, you guys have given us kind of the EUV shipment and revenue expectation for the quarter. So I was curious if you could give us that for the March quarter? Because I know that there's 4 shipment systems rather that are included from 2019. And then maybe just any thoughts on the cadence for 2020 just now, given that the 3400C is available for the full year?

好的，這很有幫助。另外，關於3月季度的指引，我想請教，過去你們通常會提供該季度EUV出貨量與營收的預期。所以我想知道你們是否能針對3月季度也提供這些資訊？因為我知道其中包含了4套從2019年延後認列的出貨系統。另外，鑑於3400C全年可供出貨，你們對2020年的出貨節奏（cadence）是否有任何看法？

Yes. I think we've indicated in the past that as soon as we really see that EUV is, in essence, going into high-volume manufacturing and also at a point where we can take revenue upon shipment that that would be the time where we're no longer going to give separate guidance on EUV shipments. So that is clearly the case by now. So that's the reason why, starting this year, we no longer do that.

是的。我想我們過去已經表示過，一旦我們真正看到EUV本質上進入高量產（high-volume manufacturing），而且也到了我們可以在出貨時認列營收的階段，那就是我們不再提供EUV出貨量單獨指引的時點。而現在顯然已經是這種情況。因此，這就是為什麼從今年開始，我們不再這麼做。

What we do, do, however, is continue to indicate, at least for 2020, for the full year, we giving an indication of the euro value and also the number of units for EUV for the full year. And of course, we will report quarter-by-quarter. We will report to you what the euro number and the unit number of that will be.

不過，我們仍會持續至少在2020年，針對全年提供EUV的歐元金額以及機台數量的指引。當然，我們也會按季度揭露。我們會逐季向各位報告其歐元金額與機台數量。

As it relates to your second question on how is it distributed over the year, it's not completely evenly distributed. It's a little bit tilted towards the second half, but only -- but modestly so. So it's not as exacerbated, if you like, as we had it in 2019. There's a better balance, but it is still a little bit tilted towards the second half of 2020.

至於你第二個問題：它在全年如何分布，並不是完全平均分配。會稍微偏向下半年，但——幅度不大。所以不像2019年那樣（如果你願意這麼說）那麼明顯。分布更為均衡，但2020年下半年仍然會略為偏重一些。

Next question, Janardan Menon.

下一個問題，Janardan Menon。

It's Janardan Menon from Liberum. I just had two follow-ups on the Logic side, especially on the EUV front -- sorry, on the DUV front. So if I take your growth number for this year, just calculating EUV revenues alone, you're going from EUR 2.8 billion to EUR 4.5 billion. I'm assuming that much of that is going to be Logic shipments. And so if I put that EUR 1.7 billion of additional revenue, which, on the Logic revenue of EUR 6.6 billion last year, that's about 25% of additional growth in Logic for this year. I'm just wondering given that, DUV shipments would probably come down during the year, what kind of a decline in DUV are we looking at? Is it 3 or 4 units, in which case, you will still be growing your Logic revenues at about 20% or higher? Or will the DUV drop a bit more than that and you could be sort of in the 10% to 20% range of growth on your Logic side?

我是來自 Liberum 的 Janardan Menon。我在邏輯（Logic）方面有兩個追問，特別是關於 EUV 的部分——抱歉，是關於 DUV 的部分。如果我採用你們今年的成長數字，只計算 EUV 營收，你們將從 28 億歐元成長到 45 億歐元。我假設其中很大一部分會是邏輯晶片出貨。因此，如果我把新增的 17 億歐元營收放進來，相對於去年邏輯營收 66 億歐元，這大約相當於今年邏輯額外成長約 25%。我只是想問，在這樣的情況下，DUV 出貨量可能會在年內下滑，我們預期 DUV 會下滑到什麼程度？是下滑 3 或 4 台嗎？如果是那樣，你們的邏輯營收仍將成長約 20% 或更高？還是 DUV 會下滑得更多一些，使得你們邏輯端的成長大概落在 10% 到 20% 的區間？

And a short follow-up is on the EUV capacity. Given that you're seeing so much of demand for EUV right now, and you're saying that in 2020, it's more a capacity issue, otherwise, you probably could ship 50 units. What can you do to add capacity further into 2022 if this kind of strength, and especially if the Memory market -- the DRAM market comes in more strongly for EUV in 2022 and the Logic strength continues? Is there a scope to further reduce cycle time to take your unit shipments above 50? Or can you use some of the bays in your High-NA new facility for Low-NA systems, if that were to be required? Is there a way you can go above 50 units by 2022?

另外一個簡短追問是關於 EUV 產能。鑑於你們目前看到 EUV 需求如此強勁，而且你們表示在 2020 年更多是產能問題，否則你們可能可以出貨 50 台。如果這種強勢延續，尤其是若記憶體市場——DRAM 市場在 2022 年對 EUV 的需求更強，而邏輯端的強勢也持續，你們能做些什麼在 2022 年進一步增加產能？是否有空間透過進一步縮短 cycle time（週期時間）把出貨量提高到 50 台以上？或者，如果有需要，你們能否使用 High-NA 新廠的一些機位（bays）來生產 Low-NA 系統？到 2022 年有沒有辦法把出貨量提高到 50 台以上？

Let me take the first question and then Peter can go into the second question. If you piece together the data points that we gave you, I think you can find sort of an answer to your first question. So as Peter said in the video, we're looking at a double-digit growth. If you do that math and you have a number that you arrive at. And then we gave you 2 other important components. On the one hand, indeed, as you mentioned, the EUR 4.5 billion for EUV, and also on this call, gave you the 20% increase over the installed base, which would get you to approximately EUR 3.4 billion. So then you can sort of calculate where DUV and apps combined where they would land for the year. I think that's what you're looking. And of course, as Peter said, it will be dependent upon the timing and the extent of the recovery, but we believe that the number that you derive in that way is a safe number to go by with some potential obviously if the Memory recovery is significant and timing.

我先回答第一個問題，然後 Peter 可以再談第二個問題。如果你把我們提供的各個數據點拼在一起，我想你可以找到第一個問題的大致答案。如同 Peter 在影片中所說，我們預期是雙位數成長。如果你做這個計算，你會得到一個結果數字。接著我們又給了你另外兩個重要組成部分。一方面，確實如你所提到，EUV 為 45 億歐元；另一方面，我們也在這通電話中提到，裝機基礎（installed base）相關業務成長 20%，這會把金額帶到約 34 億歐元。因此你就可以大致推算 DUV 與應用（apps）合計在全年會落在哪個水準。我想這就是你在找的。當然，如 Peter 所說，這會取決於復甦的時點與幅度，但我們相信你用這種方式推導出的數字，是一個可以依循的安全數字；若記憶體復甦幅度顯著且時點配合，顯然也會有一些上行空間。

Yes.

是的。

Peter, second question on...

Peter，第二個問題關於……

Yes. Second question on -- when you look at the EUV capacity that we currently have and like I said, it will be driven by cycle time reduction because the lead time reduction for capacity adds is longer. Yes, for 2020 -- beyond 2021, we are looking to bring the output capability above 50. Now -- which is what we're doing today is really looking at how much should that be. If we have to go over 60, we probably need to extend square meters of production capacity at ASML and at suppliers, which could be, like you said, using production facilities that we're currently building for High-NA, use that for temporary use in a Low-NA. Although, we'd like to prevent that because you have been here, Janardan, I mean these bays are different, the high-NA bays are different than the Low-NA bays. So it would mean some extra cost, but if push comes to shove, you could probably do that. But I think we can -- with our cycle time, probably we can go over 50. But I think it will be very difficult to go over 60. So if we have to go over 60, then we probably need to quickly add some manufacturing capacity at ASML and at the supply chain.

是的。第二個問題——當你看我們目前的 EUV 產能時，如我所說，主要會由縮短 cycle time（週期時間）來驅動，因為透過增加產能來縮短交期（lead time）的方式，其所需時間更長。是的，針對 2020 年——以及 2021 年之後，我們正著眼於把產出能力提高到 50 台以上。而我們今天正在做的，是真正評估應該提高到多少。如果必須超過 60 台，我們可能需要在 ASML 以及供應商端擴增生產面積（square meters）的產能；這可能如你所說，將我們目前為 High-NA 正在興建的生產設施，暫時用於 Low-NA。不過我們希望避免這樣做，因為你來過這裡，Janardan，你知道這些機位不同，High-NA 的機位與 Low-NA 的機位是不同的。因此這會帶來一些額外成本，但若情勢所迫，你大概可以這麼做。但我認為，透過我們的 cycle time，我們大概可以把出貨量提高到 50 台以上。不過我認為要超過 60 台會非常困難。所以如果必須超過 60 台，那我們可能需要迅速在 ASML 以及供應鏈端增加一些製造產能。

Next question is Amit Harchandani.

下一個問題是 Amit Harchandani。

Amit Harchandani from Citi. A couple, if I may. The first question goes back to the demand for EUV. You've talked about obviously the capacity for 2021. In terms of the drivers of demand from your customers, what really do you think is changing or accelerating from a customer standpoint? Is it the number of layers of adoption? Is it the base of guidance down the nodes? Is it their end customers' push? Could you give us a sense for what really do you think is driving this optimism and acceleration towards the number that you've talked about for 2021 from a customer standpoint? And then I have a follow-up.

我是 Citi 的 Amit Harchandani。如果可以的話，我有幾個問題。第一個問題回到 EUV 的需求。你們已經談到 2021 年的產能。就客戶端的需求驅動因素而言，你們認為從客戶角度看，究竟是什麼在改變或加速？是採用的層數（layers）增加嗎？是指引（guidance）往更先進節點（nodes）下移的基礎嗎？是他們終端客戶的推動嗎？你能否讓我們了解，從客戶角度看，究竟是什麼在驅動你們所談到的 2021 年那個數字所反映的樂觀情緒與加速？然後我還有一個追問。

Yes. Amit, I mean the easy answer is all of the above. Yes, we are seeing increase of lay account. The fact that EUV works also gives the customer the confidence on their road map and when they get confidence on the road map, you see a cadence change, there's a push, maybe a pull-in, yes? But also I think the discussion that we're having with customers and customers are having with us, although without going to very specific customer details, we will never do that, it's very clear that the number of tape-outs and the request from their customers, our customers' customers on different types of end applications is going up. So it is basically the combination of those 3 things, I mean you've mentioned them all. And that's what it is. And I think we are responding to what our customers are asking us based on those 3 drivers, and this is why we come to the problem of more of a capacity issue in 2021 than demand issue.

是的。Amit，我的簡單答案是：以上皆是。是的，我們看到層數採用（layer count）在增加。EUV 能夠運作這件事，也讓客戶對其技術路線圖（road map）更有信心；當他們對路線圖有信心時，你會看到節奏（cadence）改變，會有推動，可能也會有拉貨（pull-in），對吧？但我也認為，我們與客戶之間的討論，以及客戶與我們之間的互動——雖然我們不會談非常具體的客戶細節，我們永遠不會那樣做——很清楚的是，tape-out 的數量，以及他們的客戶、也就是我們客戶的客戶，對不同類型終端應用的需求正在上升。所以基本上就是這三件事的組合，你其實都提到了。就是這樣。我想我們是在回應客戶基於這三個驅動因素對我們提出的要求，這也是為什麼我們在 2021 年面臨的問題更偏向產能問題，而不是需求問題。

And secondly, if I may, could you maybe give us your latest thoughts on how you're thinking about demand from indigenous customers in China. There's obviously news flow around the EUV tool, and you've commented on that very clearly. But more broadly, as you think of your 2020 guidance and 2021, things have changed a bit since November 2018. Any clarity on demand from indigenous China, the various end markets? And what are baked into your assumptions right now?

第二點，如果可以的話，你能否談談你們對中國本土客戶需求的最新看法？顯然市場上有關 EUV 設備的新聞流，你們也已非常清楚地評論過。但更廣泛地說，當你們看 2020 年指引與 2021 年時，自 2018 年 11 月以來情況已有一些變化。對於中國本土需求、各個終端市場，有沒有更清楚的說法？你們目前的假設中納入了哪些內容？

Yes. I think things have of course changed with markets change and -- since November 2018. But I would say on China, we are pretty much on target in terms of the strategic rollout, especially in the Memory space. In Logic, and it's not so much leading-edge Logic, it's more the mature Logic systems. I think our current assessment of the market is a bit higher than it was at 2018. So if anything at the leading-edge, we're on plan. On the trailing actually, the more mature technology, I do see -- we see an upside, but no downside.

是的。我認為情況當然隨著市場變化而改變——自 2018 年 11 月以來。但我會說，就中國而言，我們在策略性推進（strategic rollout）方面基本上符合目標，特別是在記憶體領域。在邏輯方面，且不太是最先進的邏輯，而是較成熟的邏輯系統。我認為我們目前對市場的評估比 2018 年時略高一些。所以如果說在最先進端，我們是按計畫進行。而在後段（trailing），也就是更成熟的技術上，我確實看到——我們看到上行空間，但沒有下行風險。

Next question, Achal Sultania.

下一個問題，Achal Sultania。

It's Achal from Crédit Suisse. Roger, maybe on EUV services gross margins, just trying to understand like how much of a headwind it has been on -- at a group level in 2019. Obviously, you made a comment that it will get to -- it will still be loss-making this year. But basically, we have improvement through the year. So I'm just trying to understand how much of it has been already a headwind in '19? And then how quickly can that business ramp up towards a 40%, 45% services gross margins like you have most likely in DUV? Does it take 2 years, 3 years? Any color on that would be helpful.

我是來自瑞士信貸的 Achal。Roger，想請教一下 EUV 服務的毛利率，我想了解它在 2019 年於集團層面造成了多大的逆風。顯然你提到今年仍會虧損。但基本上，我們看到全年會逐步改善。所以我想了解，2019 年它已經造成了多少逆風？然後這項業務要多快才能提升到像你們在 DUV 服務中可能有的 40%、45% 服務毛利率？需要 2 年、3 年嗎？如果能提供一些補充說明會很有幫助。

And then secondly, on the mix, when you talk about this 45 to 50 capacity for EUV in 2021, can you help us understand like obviously Logic is a -- foundry is a big part of that number. But what are you hearing from Logic and DRAM customers in terms of the unit breakdown of that 45 to 50 unit number?

第二個問題關於組合：當你談到 2021 年 EUV 產能可達 45 到 50 台時，能否協助我們理解，顯然邏輯（Logic）—晶圓代工（foundry）是其中很大一部分。但你們從邏輯與 DRAM 客戶那邊聽到的，這 45 到 50 台的單位數量拆分大概是怎樣？

Thank you. So on the gross margin impact of EUV service, that was around 2% for 2019. So that's the gross margin impact of that in 2019. As I mentioned to you, we do see it's coming to a positive number in the course of this year. I expect it to be at least Q4, maybe even before that that it will turn positive.

謝謝。關於 EUV 服務對毛利率的影響，2019 年大約是 2%。這就是 2019 年的毛利率影響。如我先前提到的，我們確實看到它在今年內會轉為正數。我預期至少在第四季，甚至可能更早就會轉正。

Before we have EUV service gross margin at the corporate gross margin level, I think we're probably 2, 3 years away from that. But the aspiration clearly is there to have it at that stage in that time frame.

至於 EUV 服務毛利率要達到公司整體毛利率水準，我認為大概還需要 2 到 3 年。但我們的目標很明確，就是希望在那個時間範圍內達成。

And on the split, the 45- to 50-unit split, I can kind of give you -- I'm not going to give you any details, but the majority and I mean the -- it's above the 50% is going to go to the Logic space. So we're still dominated by Logic. But clearly, the 2021 numbers for DRAM are -- will go up as logical. I mean we have -- in the Logic space, we have several customers, in the DRAM space, we still have one so that's also an issue that will drive the division between Logic and between DRAM. But maybe it's going to be significantly above 50% is going to be Logic.

至於 45 到 50 台的拆分，我可以大致說明—我不會提供細節，但大多數（而且是—超過 50%）會用在邏輯領域。所以仍然是以邏輯為主。但很明顯，2021 年 DRAM 的數量—會如同邏輯一樣增加。我的意思是，在邏輯領域我們有多家客戶；在 DRAM 領域我們目前仍只有一家，這也是影響邏輯與 DRAM 之間分配的因素。但可能會是顯著高於 50% 會在邏輯。

Next question, Adithya Metuku.

下一個問題，Adithya Metuku。

It's Bank of America. I had two questions. Firstly, just thinking about the Memory demand as we go through this year and into next year. Obviously, when we look at the last [2] years, going into 2018, we had a very strong increase. We had a doubling in '17 and then another 50% increase in revenues from Memory customers in '18. Now when you look at the next 2 years, obviously things may be a little different. And I know it's very difficult to give a pinpoint number, but I just wondered what do you have, in your scenarios, internally? Where do you see -- if Memory was to come back in 1Q? Where do you see Memory revenues for this year? And if it were to come back in 3Q, where do you see that coming? Any color that you can give us to help us get a rough sense of where we might end up would be very helpful.

我是美國銀行。我有兩個問題。第一個是關於今年到明年記憶體需求的走勢。顯然，回顧過去兩年，進入 2018 年前我們看到非常強勁的成長。2017 年收入翻倍，2018 年來自記憶體客戶的營收又再增加 50%。但看未來兩年，情況可能會有些不同。我知道很難給出精準數字，但我想了解你們內部情境假設是怎麼看的？如果記憶體在第一季回溫，你們認為今年記憶體營收會落在哪裡？你們怎麼看今年的記憶體營收？如果是在第三季回溫，你們又會怎麼看？任何能幫助我們大致掌握可能落點的補充說明都會很有幫助。

And then secondly, just a question for Roger, just on OpEx. Just wondered if you could confirm whether the OpEx annualizing 1Q number would be a good proxy for the full year or whether there is anything else we need to think about.

第二個問題是給 Roger 的，關於營業費用（OpEx）。想請你確認一下：把第一季的 OpEx 年化後，是否可以作為全年水準的良好代理指標？或是還有其他需要考量的因素？

Yes. Well, I think on the question on the Memory demand, I did give you some indication. I can repeat myself. But when I look at -- the best proxy we have is to just look at how our machines are being used. And that's why I said, I do believe that in the first half, and it's a bit difficult to understand the exact timing or to gauge the exact timing. They will be in the first half, I think our customers will come back to this more healthy supply/demand balance, and they will see this coming so they will place orders. So for us, it's going to be -- likely going to be a second half event. But having said that, I mean 2019 was of course a weak Memory market for us, also the first half of 2020 could be not very strong as Roger indicated. But when it come back to the second half, we will have an impact on our business, also on our financial performance.

是的。關於記憶體需求的問題，我先前已給了一些指引。我可以再重申一次。但我看—我們最好的代理指標就是看我們的設備實際被如何使用。因此我才說，我相信在上半年—雖然很難掌握或判斷精確時點—我認為我們的客戶會在上半年回到較健康的供需平衡，他們也會看到這個趨勢，因此會下單。所以對我們而言，這很可能會是下半年的事件。但話說回來，2019 年對我們而言確實是疲弱的記憶體市場，而 2020 年上半年也可能不會很強，如 Roger 所指出的。但當它在下半年回來時，將會對我們的業務以及財務表現帶來影響。

But when the Memory goes -- comes back, then I think you need to look into 2021. I think I said it earlier, 2020, we do see strong EUV demand. I see no reason why the demand of our customers for leading-edge products in the Memory space, 5 nanometer will kick in then we will go down. But when the Memory recovery starts in the second half of the year, for us, is we'll extend it to 2021. So you would then have had effectively 1.5 years of a Memory downturn, which I think historically is not long and not short either. So it's just -- it all seems to fit, and this is the kind of call that I can give you based on top of what I already said.

但當記憶體開始—回升時，我認為你需要看到 2021 年。我之前也提過，2020 年我們確實看到強勁的 EUV 需求。我看不出有任何理由，會讓我們客戶對記憶體領域先進產品（例如 5 奈米）的需求在啟動後又下滑。但當記憶體復甦在下半年開始時，對我們而言會延續到 2021 年。因此你等於會經歷約 1.5 年的記憶體下行，我認為以歷史來看不算特別長，也不算特別短。所以—整體看起來是吻合的，而這就是我在先前所說基礎上能給你的判斷。

And Adithya, on your questions on the -- on OpEx, indeed, I can confirm that that what we have sort of EUR 550 million R&D and the EUR 140 million for SG&A. Those are good run rates for the quarters in this year.

Adithya，關於你對 OpEx 的問題，我可以確認：我們大約 5.5 億歐元的研發（R&D）以及 1.4 億歐元的銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）。這些是今年各季度良好的常態化水準（run rate）。

Next question, Sandeep Deshpande.

下一個問題，Sandeep Deshpande。

Sandeep Deshpande at JPMorgan. Most of my questions have been answered, but just actually a clarification, Peter. Firstly, on whenever this Memory recovery occurs, I mean you can see how the customer utilization is doing. Your exposure to NAND is lower than your exposure in DRAM. But do you see that NAND utilization is rising faster than DRAM more or vice versa at this point because that will determine the timing of when your orders come in?

我是摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。我的大部分問題都已被回答，但我想請 Peter 釐清一下。第一，當記憶體復甦發生時，你們可以看到客戶的稼動率狀況。你們對 NAND 的曝險低於對 DRAM 的曝險。但就目前而言，你們看到 NAND 的稼動率上升速度比 DRAM 更快，還是相反？因為這會決定你們訂單回來的時間點。

And then secondly, regarding these -- the multibeam tools that you're working on, you think -- at this point, is the view that these will begin shipping in 2021 and that's the -- that there could be even further accretion to the margin in 2021?

第二，關於你們正在開發的多光束（multibeam）工具，你們目前的看法是這些會在 2021 年開始出貨嗎？以及 2021 年是否可能對毛利率還有進一步的增厚（accretion）？

All right. I think I will do the Memory recovery. Like I said earlier, with the slope of the utilization recovery is a bit faster, a bit steeper for 3D NAND, but it also come from a deeper point. So in that sense -- and yes, we have, as you mentioned, less exposure to the 3D NAND market, but 3D NAND market needs a lot of exposures. So I mean this is what we are accounting, and this is what we are seeing. So I think NAND probably rising a bit faster, I think that could be the conclusion.

好的。我先回答記憶體復甦。如我先前所說，就稼動率復甦的斜率而言，3D NAND 的回升稍微更快、斜率更陡，但它也是從更低的水位回升。因此在這個意義上—是的，如你所提，我們對 3D NAND 市場的曝險較少，但 3D NAND 市場需要大量的曝光（exposures）。所以我的意思是，這就是我們在納入考量的，也是我們所看到的。所以我認為 NAND 可能上升得稍微更快一些，我想這可能是結論。

And sorry, sorry, second part was?

抱歉、抱歉，第二部分是什麼？

The second part was on the gross margin and multi-beam tools.

第二部分是關於毛利率和多束（multi-beam）工具。

Oh, the multibeam tools. Okay.

哦，多束工具。好的。

And indeed, multibeam, as I mentioned, multibeam is expected to be a high-margin product. So to the extent that when it will go into commercial application, and that is expected for 2021, we do believe that it will be accretive to our gross margin.

確實，如我提到的，多束預期會是高毛利產品。因此，當它進入商業化應用（預期在2021年）時，我們確實相信它將對我們的毛利率帶來正向貢獻。

Roger, (inaudible) if you look at multi -- as you look at an e-beam tool, it's a machine but it's very much -- it is compute power. So there's a lot of software also that's why margins are generally higher in e-beam space than in the lithography space.

了解，（聽不清）如果你看多束——就像你看一台電子束（e-beam）工具，它是一台機器，但很大程度上——它是運算能力。所以也有很多軟體，這也是為什麼在電子束領域的毛利率通常高於微影（lithography）領域。

Next question, Aleksander Peterc.

下一個問題，Aleksander Peterc。

It's Alex from SocGen. I'd just like to understand, as you now contemplate 45 to 50 EUV units in '21, does this, in any meaningful way, accelerate your path to higher gross margins, more -- closer to DUV for your EUV business overall? Or there's nothing changed in terms of your gross margin scenario for this business unit? And then just briefly, your comment regarding the timing of free cash flow generation. It looks like over the next 3 years, you will have an acceleration in free cash flow generation.

我是SocGen的Alex。我想了解的是，當你們現在考量在'21年出貨45到50台EUV設備時，這是否在任何有意義的程度上，加速你們走向更高毛利率的路徑，讓你們整體EUV業務的毛利率更——更接近DUV？或者就這個事業單位而言，你們的毛利率情境並沒有改變？另外簡單問一下，你們關於自由現金流產生時點的評論。看起來在未來3年，你們的自由現金流產生將會加速。

Yes. So let's first talk about the gross margin for EUV. I do believe a further increase in numbers will improve our gross margin for 3 reasons. One is obvious, right? To the extent that, given the capacity that we have, we have a higher output, of course, your fixed cost coverage will improve. And as we mentioned, the increase in capacity will be achieved by reducing cycle time and will not be achieved by further Capex. So that's why more units will result in gross margin improvement. That's one element.

是的。那我們先談EUV的毛利率。我確實相信，數量進一步增加會因為3個原因而改善我們的毛利率。第一個很明顯，對吧？在我們既有產能下，若產出更高，當然固定成本的吸收會改善。而且如我們提到的，產能提升將透過縮短週期時間來達成，而不是透過進一步的資本支出（Capex）。所以這就是為什麼更多台數會帶來毛利率改善。這是第一個因素。

The second element is to the extent that we have more of these tools in the fields, that also means that our service margin will, in all likelihood, improve because the number of -- the more tools we have in one location, the more efficiency we have in having our service crews there. So then the efficiency per tool will further increase.

第二個因素是，當我們在客戶端（field）有更多這些設備時，也意味著我們的服務毛利率很可能會改善，因為——同一地點的設備越多，我們派駐服務團隊在那裡的效率就越高。因此，每台設備的服務效率會進一步提升。

And thirdly, not necessarily related to the number of units, but since you talked specifically to 2021, as I mentioned, that would also see the introduction of the successor to the 3400C, which, again, we are hopeful will bring such value to our customers that the gross margin will benefit from that. So yes, a number of reasons why I think -- why we believe gross margin for EUV will continue to further improve through 2021 and beyond.

第三點不一定與台數直接相關，但既然你特別提到2021年，如我所說，那一年也會導入3400C的後繼機種；同樣地，我們希望它能為客戶帶來足夠的價值，使毛利率也能因此受益。所以是的，我認為——我們相信EUV的毛利率將在2021年及之後持續進一步改善，原因有好幾個。

On the free cash flow question, I think that is right as well. So I mentioned to you that in the very short term, the working capital burden that we have from further growing to, let's say, this capacity level that we talked about will be there. Because given the cycle time, it will mean that we have to take significantly more inventory on-board to get it done. But then, at a certain stage, you will see the offsetting factor of the fact that cycle times get reduced.

關於自由現金流的問題，我認為你說得也對。我先前提到，短期內，為了進一步成長到我們談到的這個產能水準，營運資金的負擔會存在。因為考量週期時間，這代表我們必須大幅增加庫存才能完成。但到了某個階段，你會看到週期時間縮短所帶來的抵銷效果。

So I think in this 1-year window, you will see a spike and then a leveling off as a result of the reduction of the cycle time. And as I also mentioned, we do want to get down payments more as the default in our commercial model. And that should also at some stage, lead to an offset in the working capital burden.

所以我認為在這1年的窗口期內，你會看到一次尖峰，然後因週期時間縮短而趨於平緩。另外如我也提到的，我們希望在商業模式中，讓預付款更成為預設做法。而這在某個階段也應該會對營運資金負擔形成抵銷。

We have time for one last question. If you're unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department. Now, operator, may we have the last caller, please?

我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。如果你在這通電話中無法順利提問但仍有問題，歡迎隨時聯絡ASML投資人關係部門。現在，接線員，請讓我們接最後一位來電者，好嗎？

Yes, sir. Mitch Steves.

好的，先生。Mitch Steves。

RBC Capital Markets. Most of my questions answered, but I just want to clarify a couple of small points. So first of all, based on the tone of this call, it sounds like 2021 will probably be an accelerated growth year relative to 2020? I want to make sure that that's a reasonable assumption?

RBC Capital Markets。我的大部分問題都已經得到回答，但我想再釐清幾個小點。首先，從這通電話的語氣來看，聽起來2021年相較於2020年，可能會是加速成長的一年？我想確認這是不是一個合理的假設？

And then secondly, I realize you guys can't time the exact recovery of Memory. But from a historical perspective, when you look at when the Memory market recovers, what type of sequential growth you expect in the initial first batch of recovery if I look at Q-over-Q number?

第二，我知道你們無法精準掌握記憶體（Memory）復甦的確切時間。但從歷史角度來看，當記憶體市場復甦時，如果我看季對季（Q-over-Q）的數字，在復甦初期第一波你們通常預期會有什麼樣的連續成長？

Well, I think the second question is always impossible to answer. I mean it is a -- you could say the Memory business is quite different than it was a couple of years ago. I mean 6 players in 3D NAND, 3 in DRAM, so those patents will also be a function of the composition of that market and the individual position of those companies in that market. So that's really, really difficult to use historical rates as a proxy for what's going to happen now.

嗯，我認為第二個問題一向不可能回答。我的意思是——你可以說記憶體業務和幾年前已經很不一樣了。例如3D NAND有6家玩家、DRAM有3家，所以那些模式也會取決於該市場的組成，以及各家公司在該市場中的個別位置。因此，真的、真的很難用歷史成長率作為推估現在會發生什麼的代理指標。

I think yes, 2021 could be an accelerated growth year. However, Roger said it, I mean even without the assumption on the recovery of the Memory market and the growth of the Memory market, we'll always see a double-digit growth here this year based on Logic and on the Installed Base Management. On top of that, we could see a recovery of the Memory market. So I think you could see an acceleration this year also. Now that's not for the full year, all right, granted, because we do expect it in the second half. So -- but it will definitely continue. Like I said earlier, once this Memory market recovers, it doesn't recover for 2 quarters. I mean it recovers for a longer period, like it always does on top of the Logic market. So I think we're looking forward to some acceleration.

我想是的，2021年可能會是加速成長的一年。不過Roger也說了，即使不假設記憶體市場復甦與記憶體市場成長，基於邏輯（Logic）以及裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management），我們今年仍會看到雙位數成長。在此之上，我們也可能看到記憶體市場復甦。所以我認為你今年也可能看到加速。當然，這不是指全年都如此，對吧，因為我們預期是在下半年。所以——但它肯定會延續。就像我先前說的，一旦記憶體市場復甦，它不會只復甦2個季度。我的意思是，它會在更長一段期間復甦，就像它一向在邏輯市場之上所呈現的那樣。所以我想我們期待會有一些加速。

Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

現在我代表ASML，感謝各位今天加入我們。接線員，如果你能正式結束這通電話，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

This concludes the ASML 2019 fourth quarter and full year financial results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect.

ASML 2019年第四季及全年財務結果電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您可以掛線。