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Operator
Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2026 third-quarter financial results conference call on October 14, 2026, (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
大家好,感謝您耐心等候。歡迎參加 ASML 於 2026 年 10 月 14 日舉行的 2026 年第三季財務結果電話會議,(接線員指示)敬請注意,今日會議將進行錄音。
I would now like to hand the conference call over to Mr. Jim Kavanagh. Please go ahead.
現在我想將電話會議交給 Jim Kavanagh 先生。請開始。
Jim Kavanagh - Head of Investor Relations
Jim Kavanagh - Head of Investor Relations
Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Jim Kavanagh, Head of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet; and our CFO, Roger Dassen.
謝謝,接線員。各位好,歡迎大家。我是 Jim Kavanagh,ASML 投資人關係主管。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有 ASML 執行長 Christophe Fouquet,以及財務長 Roger Dassen。
The subject of today's call is ASML's 2026 third-quarter sales. The length of the call will be 60 minutes and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at www.asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.
今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2026 年第三季銷售表現。本次會議時間為 60 分鐘,提問將依收到的順序進行。本次會議亦將透過網際網路於 www.asml.com 進行即時直播。管理層開場發言的逐字稿以及會議重播,將在本次電話會議結束後不久於我們的網站提供。
Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement obtained -- contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at www.asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
在開始之前,我想提醒各位聽眾,管理層在本次電話會議中的評論將包含符合聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險與不確定性。關於風險因素的討論,我建議您查閱「安全港」聲明——該聲明載於今日新聞稿與簡報(可於 www.asml.com 取得),以及 ASML 以 Form 20-F 提交的年度報告與其他向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。
With that, I would like to turn the call over to Christophe Fouquet for a brief introduction.
接下來,我想把電話交給 Christophe Fouquet,請他做簡短開場。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Jim. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2026 results conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the third quarter 2026 results as well as provide some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook. Roger?
謝謝你,Jim。各位好,感謝各位參加我們 2026 年第三季業績電話會議。在開始問答環節之前,Roger 和我想先就 2026 年第三季業績提供概覽與一些評論,並就目前的營運環境以及未來業務展望補充一些看法。Roger?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Thank you, Christophe, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the third quarter 2026 financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the fourth quarter and the full year of 2026.
謝謝你,Christophe,各位好,歡迎大家。我將先回顧 2026 年第三季的財務成果,接著提供第四季以及 2026 全年的指引。
Let me start with our third quarter accomplishments. Total net sales in the third quarter of 2026 were a record at EUR11.7 billion towards the high end of our guidance and reflecting strong execution of our capacity ramp.
我先從第三季的成果談起。2026 年第三季總淨銷售額創下新高,達 117 億歐元,接近我們指引區間的上緣,並反映我們在產能爬坡上的強勁執行力。
Net system sales were EUR8.4 billion, which includes EUR4.1 billion from EUV system sales including the sale of one High-NA EUV system and EUR4.3 billion from non-EUV system sales. Net system sales were split between Logic at 54% and Memory at 46%.
系統淨銷售額為 84 億歐元,其中包含 41 億歐元的 EUV 系統銷售(包括銷售一台 High-NA EUV 系統),以及 43 億歐元的非 EUV 系統銷售。系統淨銷售額按應用別分配為:邏輯 54%,記憶體 46%。
Installed Base Management sales for the quarter were EUR3.3 billion, exceeding our guidance by almost EUR0.4 billion primarily due to the strong demand for our productivity upgrade products in both EUV and DPV. Gross margin for the quarter was above guidance at 57.5% primarily due to the contribution of very high-margin components within our installed base management business.
本季裝機基礎管理(Installed Base Management)銷售額為 33 億歐元,較我們指引高出近 4 億歐元,主要因 EUV 與 DPV 的生產力升級產品需求強勁。本季毛利率高於指引,達 57.5%,主要受惠於我們裝機基礎管理業務中若干高毛利組件的貢獻。
Our operating expenses were as guided with R&D expenses at around EUR1.2 billion and SG&A expenses at around EUR0.4 billion. The effective tax rate for Q3 was 16.1% for the full year 2026, the expected annualized effective tax rate is around 17%.
我們的營業費用符合指引,研發費用約 12 億歐元,銷售、一般及行政費用(SG&A)約 4 億歐元。第三季有效稅率為 16.1%;就 2026 全年而言,預期年化有效稅率約為 17%。
Net income in Q3 was EUR5 billion, which includes around EUR0.5 billion as a result of an increase in the valuation of our initial investment in the Mistral AI, representing 42.5% of total net sales and resulting in earnings per share of EUR12.95.
第三季淨利為 50 億歐元,其中包含約 5 億歐元,係因我們對 Mistral AI 的初始投資估值上升所致;淨利相當於總淨銷售額的 42.5%,每股盈餘為 12.95 歐元。
Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR12.7 billion. Our fee cash flow in Q3 was EUR11.4 billion, underpinning the strong order momentum of our customers and related down payments.
接著看資產負債表。第三季末,我們的現金、約當現金及短期投資為 127 億歐元。第三季自由現金流為 114 億歐元,反映客戶強勁的訂單動能及相關預付款。
Moving to the cash return to our shareholders. In Q3, ASML paid the first interim dividend over 2026 of EUR1.88 per ordinary share. Further, we purchased in Q3 around EUR4.1 billion worth of shares under the current 2026-2028 share buyback program. The second quarterly interim dividend over 2026 will be EUR1.88 per ordinary share and will be made payable on November 4, 2026.
接著談我們對股東的現金回饋。第三季,ASML 支付 2026 年第一期中期股利,每股普通股 1.88 歐元。此外,我們在第三季依據現行 2026-2028 年庫藏股回購計畫回購約 41 億歐元的股份。2026 年第二期季度中期股利將為每股普通股 1.88 歐元,並將於 2026 年 11 月 4 日支付。
With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the fourth quarter and the full year 2026. We expect Q4 total net sales to be between EUR14.2 billion and EUR15.2 billion with a gross margin of around 57%. We expect our Q4 installed base management sales to be around EUR3.7 billion. The expected R&D expenses for Q4 are around EUR1.2 billion and SG&A is expected to be around EUR0.4 billion.
接下來,我說明我們對第四季及 2026 全年的預期。我們預期第四季總淨銷售額介於 142 億至 152 億歐元,毛利率約 57%。我們預期第四季裝機基礎管理銷售額約 37 億歐元。預期第四季研發費用約 12 億歐元,SG&A 預期約 4 億歐元。
Regarding our full year expectations, we expect our full year 2026 total net sales to be between EUR44 billion and EUR45 billion, with a gross margin of around 56%. This anticipated year-over-year total net sales increase of around 36% reflects our expectation of over 45% growth in EUV, around 20% growth in non-EV related system sales and around 50% growth in installed base management sales.
關於全年預期,我們預期 2026 全年總淨銷售額介於 440 億至 450 億歐元,毛利率約 56%。預期全年總淨銷售額年增約 36%,反映我們預期 EUV 成長超過 45%、非 EUV 相關系統銷售成長約 20%,以及裝機基礎管理銷售成長約 50%。
Turning to end use. This year, we expect Logic net system sales to grow around 10%, and Memory net system sales to grow around 75%. The growth in Memory is driven by the combination of capacity expansion of our customers and the increasing adoption of EUV on advanced DRAM nodes. As previously mentioned, we continue to expect the China region to account for around 20% of our total net sales this year.
接著看終端應用。今年我們預期邏輯系統淨銷售額成長約 10%,記憶體系統淨銷售額成長約 75%。記憶體的成長來自客戶擴產與先進 DRAM 製程節點對 EUV 採用率提升的雙重帶動。如先前所述,我們仍預期今年中國地區約占我們總淨銷售額的 20%。
In summary, the third quarter was a record for both total net sales and gross margin, and we expect our business to continue to accelerate in the fourth quarter as we execute against a backdrop of very strong customer demand for auto products and services.
總結而言,第三季在總淨銷售額與毛利率兩方面皆創下新高;隨著我們在客戶對我們產品與服務需求非常強勁的背景下持續執行,我們預期第四季業務將持續加速。
With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Christophe.
接下來,我把電話交回給 Christophe。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Roger. If we take a step back to look at the market environment, we see that the pace of the AI build-out continues to be very robust. Supply shortages across advanced logic and memory nodes continue to increase in size and in time horizon. Against this backdrop, we had very constructive discussions with our customers throughout the quarter and the demand signals we have received have continued to strengthen.
謝謝你,Roger。如果我們退一步來看市場環境,我們看到 AI 建置的步伐仍然非常強勁。先進邏輯與記憶體節點的供應短缺在規模與持續時間上都持續擴大。在此背景下,我們在整個季度與客戶進行了非常具建設性的討論,而我們收到的需求訊號也持續轉強。
Our leading-edge high-volume customers are sharing very good visibility as a result of the increasing number of long-term commitments they are securing with their customers. This extended visibility has led them to conclude that demand for their product will outpace supply through at least 2028.
我們的前沿高產量客戶,因其與自身客戶簽訂的長期承諾數量增加,而分享了非常良好的能見度。這種延伸的能見度使他們得出結論:其產品需求至少到 2028 年都將超過供給。
As a result, customers are accelerating capacity build-out plans and preparing for further expansion beyond 2028 in order to better meet the anticipated level of demand. For us, their drive to add capacity is translating into not only greater short-term demand across our entire holistic lithography portfolio, but also improved longer-term visibility and demand, especially for our EUV products.
因此,客戶正加速其產能擴建計畫,並為 2028 年之後的進一步擴張做準備,以更好地滿足預期的需求水準。對我們而言,他們擴增產能的動能不僅轉化為我們整體光刻產品組合在短期內更高的需求,也帶來更佳的長期能見度與需求,尤其是針對我們的 EUV 產品。
As customers shift focus to their needs beyond 2027, our order momentum continues to build. We are increasingly receiving orders for 2028, and customers are also expressing interest in placing orders for 2029 and even 2030. As our customers are preparing to meet rising demand, we, in turn, continue our focus on adding capacity to support their needs.
隨著客戶將重心轉向 2027 年之後的需求,我們的訂單動能持續增強。我們正愈來愈多地收到 2028 年的訂單,客戶也表達了希望下單 2029 年甚至 2030 年的意願。在客戶為滿足上升的需求做準備之際,我們也相應地持續專注於擴增產能,以支援其需求。
Roger will now share further details on our latest plans on providing our customers additional capacity. Roger?
接下來 Roger 將分享我們最新的計畫細節,說明我們如何為客戶提供額外產能。Roger?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Thank you, Christophe. We have been very successful in ramping capacity this year. For low-NA EUV, we anticipated output of roughly 65 systems for 2026, which is nearly 50% more than the 44 systems that we shipped last year. For DUV immersion systems, while our initial output target for these systems was well below the prior year, we now expect we will deliver a similar quantity in 2026 as we did in 2025.
謝謝你,Christophe。我們今年在產能爬坡方面非常成功。就低 NA EUV 而言,我們預期 2026 年的產出約為 65 台系統,較去年出貨的 44 台增加近 50%。就 DUV 浸潤式系統而言,雖然我們最初的產出目標遠低於前一年,但我們現在預期 2026 年的交付量將與 2025 年相近。
Looking further ahead, we shared our intent last quarter to increase our capacity in 2027 by 30% for both low-NA EUV and DUV immersion systems as well as to investigate adding a further 30% in 2028. However, given the dynamics of this quarter, we now anticipate that our current plant levels of output in '27 and '28 will not fully meet the demand of our customers. Therefore, we continue to strengthen our efforts to produce more systems, especially beyond '27 and with that goal in mind, are now looking into expanding our 2028 capacity even above the 30% year-on-year growth target that was under investigation last quarter for both low-NA EUV and immersion systems.
展望更長期,我們在上一季分享了我們的意圖:在 2027 年將低 NA EUV 與 DUV 浸潤式系統的產能各提高 30%,並研究在 2028 年再額外增加 30%。然而,鑑於本季的動態,我們現在預期目前工廠在 2027 年與 2028 年的產出水準將無法完全滿足客戶需求。因此,我們持續強化生產更多系統的努力,特別是在 2027 年之後;基於此目標,我們正評估將 2028 年產能擴增幅度提高到超過上一季所研究的年增 30% 目標,涵蓋低 NA EUV 與浸潤式系統。
In addition to shipping new systems, we support customer needs for more wafer capacity through productivity upgrades across our EUV and DUV installed base as well as with the introduction of new products. The ability to enable an increase in capacity through upgrades on the same footprint is very compelling for our customers as the effect is an immediate increase in output capability. We will continue to work on this important value driver, expanding the upgrade portfolio offering, new productivity options to our customers in the coming years.
除了出貨新系統之外,我們也透過對 EUV 與 DUV 既有裝機基礎進行生產力升級,以及導入新產品,來支援客戶對更多晶圓產能的需求。在相同占地面積下透過升級即可提升產能的能力,對客戶而言非常具吸引力,因為其效果是立即提升產出能力。我們將持續推動這項重要的價值驅動因素,在未來幾年擴大升級產品組合,為客戶提供新的生產力選項。
The introduction of new products is the other lever that we have to support increased wafer capacity. We plan to introduce our next-generation low-NA EUV system, the NXE:3800F starting in small quantities at the beginning of 2027. This system is specified at a throughput of 260 wafers per hour compared to the 230 wafers per hour capability of the NXE:3800E system. We also plan to introduce the next-generation critical deep UV immersion running at 330 wafers per hour. These new products will provide incrementally more wafer capacity to the industry as they ramp in the coming years.
導入新產品是我們支援提升晶圓產能的另一個槓桿。我們計畫自 2027 年初起以小量方式導入下一代低 NA EUV 系統 NXE:3800F。該系統規格吞吐量為每小時 260 片晶圓,相較於 NXE:3800E 系統每小時 230 片的能力有所提升。我們也計畫導入下一代關鍵層深紫外(DUV)浸潤式系統,運行速度可達每小時 330 片晶圓。隨著這些新產品在未來幾年逐步放量,它們將為產業帶來額外的晶圓產能。
With that, I will hand it back over to Christophe for a technology update.
接下來我把時間交還給 Christophe,進行技術更新。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Roger. This quarter, we saw meaningful momentum around INA EUV with several industry announcements providing evidence of the technologies progress from development towards production. Intel announced that it has exposed more than 1 million wafers using its INA EUV systems with performance that meets or exceeds comparable layers pattern using low-NA EUV. Additionally,
謝謝你,Roger。本季我們看到 INA EUV 方面出現顯著動能,業界多項公告顯示該技術正從研發走向量產。Intel 宣布其使用 INA EUV 系統已曝光超過 100 萬片晶圓,且其表現達到或超越使用低 NA EUV 進行相同層圖形化的可比水準。此外,
Samsung and TSMC announced plans to introduce INA EUV into high-volume manufacturing in 2028 and 2030, respectively. With availability across the existing INA EUV fleet approaching 90%, we now expect to see adoption increase node to node moving forward.
Samsung 與 TSMC 分別宣布計畫於 2028 年與 2030 年將 INA EUV 導入高量產製。隨著現有 INA EUV 機隊的可用率接近 90%,我們現在預期未來將看到其在不同節點之間的採用率逐步提升。
To further ensure chip makers can fully leverage the advantage of INA EUV, we also, in collaboration with TSMC, began an industry-wide initiative to develop larger formats EUV photo maps. This collaborative effort aims to establish a 12-inch mass pilot line by 2031 and enter production in 2033. The broad support for this transition reflects customer interest in maximizing the value of INA EUV and investing in the next generation of this technology.
為了進一步確保晶片製造商能充分發揮 INA EUV 的優勢,我們也與 TSMC 合作,啟動一項全產業倡議,以開發更大尺寸格式的 EUV 光罩版圖(photo maps)。此合作努力旨在於 2031 年建立 12 吋量產試驗線,並於 2033 年進入量產。對此轉換的廣泛支持,反映出客戶希望最大化 INA EUV 的價值,並投資於此技術下一代的興趣。
In closing, the combination of very strong demand fundamentals, improved visibility and rising litho intensity reinforce our confidence in the trajectory of our business. Our focus continues to be on supporting our customers as they ramp their logic and memory nodes by continuing to expand our capacity over a multiyear horizon while also delivering enhanced productivity by executing our technology road map.
最後,極為強勁的需求基本面、更佳的能見度以及光刻強度的提升,共同強化了我們對業務發展軌跡的信心。我們的重點仍是支援客戶在邏輯與記憶體節點的放量:一方面在多年期的時間範圍內持續擴增產能,另一方面透過執行我們的技術路線圖交付更高的生產力。
In Q3, we have also shipped the first Yieldstar 550B metrology system. This overlay measurement system is designed with improved accuracy and precision to support a tighter process control requirements of the 14 extra node in logic and the 1D node in DRAM.
在第三季,我們也出貨了第一套 Yieldstar 550B 量測系統。這套套疊(overlay)量測系統以更高的準確度與精密度設計,可支援邏輯製程 14 extra 節點與 DRAM 1D 節點更嚴格的製程控制需求。
The system is designed to deliver more than 60% greater productivity over the previous generation Star allowing customers to measure more wafers and therefore more quickly drive yield improvement in their processes. This latest generation system continue to support major adoption of first customer with a demand that is expected to more than double for the coming years versus 2025.
該系統的設計可提供較前一代 Star 超過 60% 的生產力提升,使客戶能量測更多晶圓,因而更快速地推動其製程良率改善。這一最新一代系統持續支援首位客戶的大規模採用,且預期未來幾年的需求相較 2025 年將增加逾一倍。
Finally, the transition of INA EUV into high-volume manufacturing creates accompanying opportunity for customers to enhance the economics of their future road map, and we remain fully committed to helping them execute a successful insertion.
最後,INA EUV 向高量產製的轉移,也為客戶帶來伴隨的機會,以提升其未來技術路線圖的經濟性;我們仍將全力投入,協助他們成功導入。
With that, we would like -- we will be happy to take your questions.
接下來,我們想要——我們很樂意回答各位的問題。
Jim Kavanagh - Head of Investor Relations
Jim Kavanagh - Head of Investor Relations
Thank you, Roger, and thank you, Christophe. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Event Instructions)
謝謝你,Roger,也謝謝你,Christophe。接線員將在稍後向各位說明問答環節的流程。(活動說明)
Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please.
現在請接線員提供最後的說明,然後開始第一個問題,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Joseph Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.
(接線員說明) Joseph Quatrochi,富國銀行(Wells Fargo)。
Joe Quatrochi - Analyst
Joe Quatrochi - Analyst
I was wondering if you could provide maybe just a little additional color on the capacity expansion that you need beyond the 30% previously talked about. And just what do you think you can do in 2027 relative to that kind of mid-80s that we talked about last quarter?
我想請問你們是否可以就先前提到的 30% 之外、你們所需要的產能擴張,再提供一些額外的說明。另外,相較於我們上一季談到的 80 多台(mid-80s)那個水準,你們認為 2027 年能做到什麼程度?
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, I think that we are basically working very hard to increase capacity. And I think this is true now, as Roger explained, we've done a lot of that this quarter. That's going to be true next year, and that's going to be true in 2028. And the reason for that, as we explained, is we continue to see customers asking for more tools.
我認為我們基本上正非常努力地提升產能。而且我想這點現在就成立,正如 Roger 所解釋的,我們本季已做了很多。明年也會如此,2028 年也會如此。原因如我們所說,我們持續看到客戶要求更多設備。
Now if we look at some of the opportunity we see, of course, it's a bit easier for us to enable those opportunity later, so mostly in 2028 rather than on the shorter term. So this is what we are focusing on. I won't give a new number for '27 or '28 because it's far too early to give those numbers as we continue to basically do everything we can to get extra capacity.
如果我們看一些我們所看到的機會,當然,對我們而言在較後期促成這些機會會相對容易一些,因此主要會是在 2028 年,而不是更短期。這就是我們目前的重點。我不會為 2027 年或 2028 年提供新的數字,因為現在要給出這些數字還太早;我們仍在持續盡一切努力爭取額外產能。
Joe Quatrochi - Analyst
Joe Quatrochi - Analyst
Okay. And then as a follow-up, you talked about it in the prepared remarks or in the transcript value-based pricing impacting more 2027 and 2028. Can you share any just a few more additional details on that on how to think about just kind of the trajectory of gross margin from here?
好的。接著追問一下,你在事先準備的發言或逐字稿中提到,以價值為基礎的定價對 2027 年與 2028 年的影響會更大。你能否再多分享一些細節,讓我們理解從現在起毛利率走勢大概會如何演變?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Yes. So those are two questions, right? So first on the pricing. As we mentioned in July, at that point, we were entering into conversations with customers on price increases. Those conversations have been completed and have indeed led to pricing increase for what we call the most critical products for our customers. So that has been done.
是的。所以這其實是兩個問題,對吧?先談定價。如同我們在 7 月提到的,當時我們正開始與客戶就漲價進行溝通。這些溝通已經完成,並且確實使我們所稱對客戶最關鍵的產品出現了價格上調。所以這部分已經完成。
As we also -- and you made reference to it, as we said in the prepared remarks, this is not going to have an impact on '26. You will see some impact on '27, but I would say that the full impact of that is really going to start in '28. So from '28 onwards, you're going to see the sustained impact of that, but you will see -- in the course of '27, you will see that starting to manifest itself in a positive way in both our revenue and the ASPs and in the gross margin.
另外——你也提到了——如同我們在事先準備的發言中所說,這不會對 2026 年產生影響。你會在 2027 年看到一些影響,但我會說其完整影響其實會在 2028 年才真正開始顯現。因此從 2028 年起,你會看到其持續性的影響;但在 2027 年的過程中,你會看到它開始以正面的方式反映在我們的營收、ASP(平均售價)以及毛利率上。
Your second question on gross margin is obviously a much broader question. But let me take that one then. So what are the puts and takes on the gross margin? So as you have seen, gross margin this quarter, very, very strong and stronger than we anticipated. I would say primarily as a result of the $400 million more upgrade business that we have.
你第二個關於毛利率的問題,顯然是更廣泛的問題。不過我來回答這個。那麼毛利率有哪些拉抬與抵銷因素(puts and takes)?如你所見,本季毛利率非常、非常強勁,且高於我們原先預期。我認為主要原因是我們多了 4 億美元的升級(upgrade)業務。
But we should also not forget that if you look at the total year at 56%, it's not just the upgrade business, right? It's also higher volume. It's also the fact that we have a very strong loan EUV business in there, very strong immersion business in there. So those are all things that help.
但我們也不應忘記,如果你看全年 56% 的水準,並不只是升級業務,對吧?也包括更高的出貨量。也包括我們有非常強勁的 low EUV 業務,以及非常強勁的浸潤式(immersion)業務。這些都是有助於毛利率的因素。
And then obviously, the question is, how will that develop into the years beyond this year, right? So what's the implication for '27 and beyond? And of course, we're not going to give you a gross margin percentage for that will come in January of 2027. But if you look at the key drivers of the gross margin this year, you have to ask yourself how much of that can be sustained into 2027.
接著當然問題是,這在今年之後的年度會如何發展,對吧?也就是對 2027 年及之後的意涵是什麼?當然,我們不會在現在就給出 2027 年 1 月才會提供的毛利率百分比。但如果你看今年毛利率的關鍵驅動因素,你就必須問自己:其中有多少能延續到 2027 年。
So first off, volume, with everything that Christophe just told you on the 30% increase in 2027, of course, volume should help, right? And volume as long as we're able to control the cost of the increase in capacity, volume should give you better fixed cost coverage. So that should be a positive in that level.
首先是出貨量。就 Christophe 剛才提到 2027 年增加 30% 這點而言,出貨量當然會有幫助,對吧?而只要我們能控制擴產所帶來的成本增加,出貨量就能帶來更好的固定成本吸收。因此在這個層面應該是正面的。
The second element is mix. And there are two, again, key drivers of the volume are the 30% extra in immersion and low INA EUV. Both of them are obviously very positive from a gross margin perspective. Of course, there will be quite some dry business that we continue to increase this year, but also next year. But I would say that also mix with the strength in EUV demand and emerging demand that should help.
第二個因素是產品組合(mix)。而且同樣地,出貨量的兩個關鍵驅動是浸潤式增加 30% 以及 low INA EUV。兩者從毛利率角度來看都非常正面。當然,我們今年會持續增加相當多的 dry(乾式)業務,明年也會。但我會說,隨著 EUV 需求強勁以及新興需求,產品組合也會有所助益。
Then to your point, we have the price increase, which, as I mentioned, will have some effect in '27, the larger effect you will see in '28, but it will have some effect in '27. So that's going to be helpful.
再來如你所提到,我們有漲價;如我所說,2027 年會有一些效果,較大的效果會在 2028 年看到,但 2027 年仍會有部分影響。所以這會帶來幫助。
And then finally, in the positive sense, I would probably call out the mix effect within the EUV, right, where the mix effect next year is going to be better than this year because this year, we still have quite some models in the mix that won't materially be the case anymore next year, and we will have a few (inaudible) in there as well. So that's going to be helpful in the total easing. So those are key elements.
最後,從正面因素來看,我可能會特別點出 EUV 內部的組合效應,對吧?明年的組合效應會比今年更好,因為今年我們的組合中仍有相當多的機型,而明年就不會再是主要情況,另外我們也會有一些(聽不清)在其中。因此這對整體改善會有幫助。以上是關鍵要素。
And then what are the things that we need to watch out for? Well, one, as I mentioned, is the ramp cost, right? So how much cost are we incurring to ramp not just for '27 but also for beyond. So that's one thing that we simply need to manage those costs well.
那麼有哪些事情是我們需要留意的?第一,如我提到的,是爬坡成本(ramp cost),對吧?也就是我們為了爬坡所產生的成本,不僅是為了 2027 年,也包括更往後。所以這是一件我們必須把成本管理好的事情。
And then there is the swing factor of the upgrades, right? Because as we mentioned, the upgrades are very, very strong this year. So that really begs the question, how sustainable is the upgrade business. And if you look into that, the sustainability of the upgrade business, there's a few elements to bear in mind there.
另外還有升級的擺動因素(swing factor),對吧?因為如我們所提到的,今年升級非常、非常強勁。因此問題就變成:升級業務有多可持續?如果深入看升級業務的可持續性,有幾個要點需要記住。
First off, we still see, as of today, that there is quite some addressable market for us on the upgrade business. So if you look at the upgrade -- the number of upgrades that we have performed in the field, it's quite a few tools, but there are still quite a few tools out there that have not yet been upgraded. So that gives you good potential for the coming quarter, but also for the years thereafter.
首先,截至今天我們仍看到升級業務對我們而言有相當大的可服務市場(addressable market)。如果你看我們在客戶端已完成的升級數量,確實有不少設備,但外面仍有相當多設備尚未升級。因此這為接下來的季度以及之後幾年提供了不錯的潛力。
Second, as we mentioned on the video, we're also aggressively pushing upgrade products. So we will bring new upgrade products to the market. And of course, that would open an entirely new addressable market for us in the installed base. So that's helpful.
第二,如我們在影片中提到的,我們也在積極推動升級產品。因此我們會把新的升級產品推向市場。當然,這會在已安裝基礎(installed base)中為我們開啟一個全新的可服務市場。所以這是有幫助的。
And so there is a question, how will the market continue in the current market environment with the demand that is out there, as we just said, there is a lot of appetite for these upgrades. So I would say upgrade is an important swing factor for us in the gross margin development as we see in '27 and beyond, very strong this year. But I think we're at least from our side, doing whatever we can to create as much opportunity for upgrade business on a go-forward basis as we can.
因此也有一個問題:在目前的市場環境下,市場會如何延續?就如我們剛才所說,對這些升級有很強的需求意願。所以我會說,升級是我們在 2027 年及之後毛利率發展中的一個重要擺動因素;今年非常強勁。但我認為至少就我們這邊而言,我們正在盡一切所能,在未來持續創造盡可能多的升級業務機會。
Operator
Operator
Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.
Krish Sankar,TD Cowen。
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Christopher or Roger, my first one, I understand you don't want to give exact capacity numbers. I'm just wondering under the strong demand environment, is there a natural ceiling on your EV output either due to pace at BIC or Carl Zeiss capacity? Or in other words, if the demand is there, can you do 140 or 150 units in 2028? And along the same line, do you worry that customers are pulling in orders or giving you bigger forecast just to secure a slot? I had a quick follow-up after that.
Christopher 或 Roger,我第一個問題:我理解你們不想給出精確的產能數字。我只是想問,在需求強勁的環境下,你們的 EUV 產出是否存在自然上限,可能是因為 BIC 的節奏或 Carl Zeiss 的產能?換句話說,如果需求存在,你們在 2028 年能做到 140 或 150 台嗎?同樣延伸來看,你們是否擔心客戶為了確保名額而提前拉貨下單,或給你們更大的預測?之後我還有一個簡短追問。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So maybe, I may try to answer both questions. So first on maybe what we are doing to increase the capacity. So I think I mentioned that before, this is a task really started several months ago. And I think there are really three elements to it.
是的。所以也許我可以嘗試回答這兩個問題。首先談談我們為提升產能所做的事情。我想我之前提過,這項工作其實在幾個月前就已經開始。而我認為這裡面確實有三個要素。
The first one is to optimize the footprint we have here in order to basically build our machines. We have, as you know, a pretty important footprint and we started to make sure that most of that footprint can be used for output. And that's true for low-NA EUV. That's also true, by the way, for DUV, including immersion. And this creates already some opportunity that we can use and build up again this year, next year and in 2028.
第一項是優化我們在這裡既有的廠區占地,以便基本上用來建造我們的機台。如你所知,我們的廠區規模相當可觀,我們已開始確保其中大部分占地都能用於產出。這對低 NA 的 EUV 是如此;順帶一提,對 DUV(包含浸潤式)也是如此。而這已經創造出一些我們可以利用的機會,並且我們今年、明年以及 2028 年都能再次加以運用並持續擴大。
The second one, which I think is a very big opportunity and still a major parameter is the cycle time, meaning the time we spend in our factory with a certain given machines. And as we gain in maturity, for example, on the NXE:3800E, we are capable to shorten the cycle time for a certain given sequence, but we are also capable to further optimize the sequence, meaning there are things that we needed to initially in order to qualify a tool, which over time in agreement with our customer we believe we don't have to do any more.
第二項,我認為是非常大的機會、而且仍是主要參數的,是週期時間(cycle time),也就是我們在工廠裡針對某一台既定機台所花費的時間。隨著我們成熟度提升,例如在 NXE:3800E 上,我們能夠縮短某一既定流程的週期時間;同時也能進一步優化流程,也就是說,有些我們一開始為了讓設備通過認證所必須做的事情,隨著時間推進並在與客戶達成共識後,我們認為不再需要繼續做。
And I would say that this approach, we can take pretty far moving forward, and this is one of the really key opportunity we see basically moving forward. And as I mentioned before, as we go over time, the opportunity continue to materialize, which give us some more hope and opportunity.
我會說,這種做法在未來可以推進得相當深入,而這正是我們往前看所看到的其中一個真正關鍵的機會。而且如我先前提到的,隨著時間推移,這些機會會持續具體化,帶給我們更多的信心與空間。
On the supply chain, of course, I mean, indirectly, your question is or your remark is that we have to supply the supply chain. This is something that we take into account, starting with Zeiss. So we do not see Zeiss today as a bottleneck for the capacity expansion we are discussing even beyond the 30% we mentioned for 2028.
至於供應鏈,當然,你的問題或評論其實是在說我們必須讓供應鏈具備供應能力。這是我們會納入考量的,從蔡司(Zeiss)開始。因此,就我們今天的觀察,蔡司並不是我們所討論的產能擴張的瓶頸,即便是超過我們提到的 2028 年 30% 擴張幅度也是如此。
And we have done in the recent years, many, many work with all the supply chain to make sure that the supply chain will not be an issue for us. So we continue, of course, to watch that very carefully. Clearly, you understand that every time you have capacity, of course, we create more challenges there. So we do that.
而且在過去幾年,我們與整個供應鏈做了非常非常多的工作,以確保供應鏈不會成為我們的問題。所以我們當然會持續非常謹慎地監控。顯然你也理解,每當你擴充產能,當然就會在那裡帶來更多挑戰。所以我們會這麼做。
And the last thing I would say is that we have time. I mean, if you look at the progress we have done this year, I think they are very significant. We are feeling pretty good about next year. And the time we have, again, for next year for 2028 is still significant for us to continue to be very creative on all those fronts. So that's, I would say, the first -- the answer to your first question.
最後我想說的是,我們有時間。我的意思是,如果你看我們今年取得的進展,我認為非常顯著。我們對明年的情況感覺相當不錯。而我們擁有的時間——同樣地,從明年到 2028 年——對我們而言仍然相當充裕,讓我們能在所有這些面向上持續非常有創意地推進。所以我會說,這就是——對你第一個問題的回答。
On the second one, I think I mentioned in the introduction, we have very good conversations with our customers. And the conversation is not only about how many tools they need. It's also about exactly when those tools will be hitting the ground in their factories.
至於第二個問題,我想我在開場時提過,我們與客戶有非常良好的對話。而這些對話不僅僅是關於他們需要多少台設備。也同樣是關於這些設備究竟會在什麼時點落地到他們的工廠。
And when it comes to the demand we are referring to, the increased demand we are referring to, I think we are very much capable to validate the demand with some more detailed plan, our customers are sharing with us in terms of fab construction, release, et cetera, et cetera. So I think that we -- when we talk about demand, when we refer to demand in those discussions, we really referred to demand, we believe, is real and not inflated by any potential buying behavior from our customers.
當談到我們所指的需求、也就是我們所指的需求增加時,我認為我們非常有能力用更細緻的計畫來驗證需求;客戶會與我們分享例如晶圓廠建設、放行(release)等等更詳細的規劃。因此我認為——當我們在這些討論中談到需求、提到需求時,我們所指的是我們相信是真實的需求,而不是因客戶任何可能的採購行為而被膨脹的需求。
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Got you. That's super helpful, Christophe. And then a quick follow-up for Roger. On the value pricing, is this across the board? Is it for systems, services, spare parts, everything? And I'm guessing, based on your commentary, you're not repricing the backlog. Can you just clarify that?
了解。這非常有幫助,Christophe。接著給 Roger 一個簡短追問。關於價值定價(value pricing),這是全面適用嗎?是針對系統、服務、備品備件,所有項目嗎?而且我猜,根據你的評論,你們不會對在手訂單(backlog)重新定價。你能否澄清一下?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Yes. Exactly how we do it, Krish, I'm not going to share it. But as I mentioned, we are increasing prices for we call the most critical products, those products that bring most value to our customers. So these are the high-range, high-volume manufacturing projects. Those are the ones that provide most value to customers in the current environment, and those are the ones that we put the pricing increases on it.
是的。Krish,具體怎麼做我不會分享。但如我提到的,我們正在對我們所稱的最關鍵產品提高價格,也就是為客戶帶來最大價值的那些產品。因此,這些是高階、用於高產量製造的專案。在目前的環境下,這些是為客戶提供最大價值的項目,而我們就是把漲價施加在這些項目上。
And you will also understand that upgrade prices are closely associated with the prices of the tools. So that's -- they will also follow upgrade prices will also follow this trend. That's how we do it and exactly how we do it, when we do it, et cetera. I don't want to go into any detail, but the bottom line is that we will start to see the effect on that in the course of 2027, but the full effect you will start to see from '28 and onwards.
你也會理解,升級(upgrade)的價格與設備本身的價格密切相關。所以——升級價格也會跟隨這個趨勢。我們就是這樣做的;至於我們究竟怎麼做、何時做等等,我不想深入細節,但重點是,你會在 2027 年期間開始看到其影響,而完整效果將從 2028 年起及之後開始顯現。
Operator
Operator
Sandeep Deshpande, JPMorgan.
JPMorgan 的 Sandeep Deshpande。
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
My question is back again to the question of your indication that you are looking at adding more capacity than the 30% into 2028. There are multiple components that you need to be able to add capacity. And some of these suppliers of ASML will need to add physical capacity to be able to supply you with this kind of huge volume increases, given that there's already a 30% increase in 2027.
我的問題再次回到你們所提到的:你們正在評估在 2028 年之前增加超過 30% 的產能。要增加產能需要多個組成要素。而你們的一些供應商將需要增加實體產能,才能在 2027 年已經增加 30% 的情況下,仍能供應你們這種大幅的出貨量提升。
Have these discussions started with customers? Does ASML need to make any substantial payments to these suppliers in terms of adding this capacity? And are there any particular impediments? And given that you yourself do not have any additional physical capacity until 2029, how is this whole supply chain being managed to be able to produce more capacity in 2028. I have a quick follow-up after that.
這些與客戶的討論是否已經開始?ASML 是否需要就新增這些產能向供應商支付任何重大款項?是否存在任何特定的阻礙?並且鑑於你們自己直到 2029 年之前都沒有額外的實體產能,整個供應鏈要如何被管理,才能在 2028 年生產出更多產能?之後我還有一個簡短追問。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
So I will try to add a bit to what I said before. I think that -- the only real challenge we have with the supply chain is to make sure they can ramp. I think that there is no question on their side on the -- say, the strength of the demand on the strength of the ramp. I think that the main challenge with all our suppliers, because in this case, we all the suppliers is make sure that they can go up 30% every year.
我會試著在我先前所說的基礎上再補充一些。我認為——我們在供應鏈方面唯一真正的挑戰,是確保他們能夠爬坡(ramp)。我認為在他們那邊,對需求的強度、以及爬坡的強度,沒有任何疑問。我認為對我們所有供應商而言的主要挑戰——因為在這個情況下,是所有供應商——是確保他們每年都能提升 30%。
Now Roger mentioned it before in the introduction, we went up this year by 50% on EUV, which is designed basically that these are the kind of things we are capable to do with the suppliers. And as you can imagine, that's a discussion that we have with them on a very regular basis.
Roger 在開場時先前提到,我們今年在 EUV 上提升了 50%,這基本上就是我們與供應商一起能做到的那類事情。而如你所想像,這也是我們非常定期與他們進行的討論。
And us mentioning 30% growth in '27, more than 30% growth in '28 is the results of the confidence we have that this entire supply chain can, of course, follow our own demand, both on EUV and DUV. That exercise, I would say, of course, could be extended as far as needed because we are continuing also to add, I will say, suppliers. So we are continuing to make sure so that we have more and more people who can produce some of our parts, especially in the noncritical one.
而我們提到 2027 年 30% 的成長、以及 2028 年超過 30% 的成長,是基於我們對整個供應鏈有信心:它當然能跟上我們自身的需求,無論是在 EUV 或 DUV 上。這項工作我會說,當然也可以視需要延伸到更遠,因為我們也在持續增加——我會說——供應商。因此我們持續確保有越來越多的夥伴能夠生產我們的一些零組件,特別是在非關鍵的部分。
And when it comes to the very critical one, (inaudible) comes to mind again, we are absolutely strategically aligned the trajectory of the industry and therefore, the strategic of the demand. So these are very, very detailed intense discussion. But again, every number we share with you is the reserves of us having validated that the supply chain can, of course, follow those numbers.
而談到非常關鍵的那一項,(聽不清)又再次浮現在腦海中,我們在策略上與產業的發展軌跡、因此也與需求的策略方向,完全一致。所以這些都是非常、非常細緻且密集的討論。但再說一次,我們與各位分享的每一個數字,都是在我們確認供應鏈當然能夠跟上這些數字之後,才提出的。
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Sandeep Deshpande - Analyst
Quickly, Roger, on the gross margin, your guidance on gross margin in the fourth quarter is down from the current quarter, even though your revenues are going up significantly. And then, I mean, just -- again, regarding the response you made earlier about the value-based pricing, should we assume that most of the value-based pricing-related increases will go straight to the gross margin line? Or is there a margin number on these increases that you will be putting through?
Roger,我想快速追問一下毛利率。你們對第四季毛利率的指引比本季低,儘管你們的營收將顯著上升。然後,我是說,再次回到你先前提到的價值導向定價(value-based pricing)的回應,我們是否可以假設,大部分與價值導向定價相關的漲價會直接反映到毛利率這一行?還是說,這些漲價中會有一個毛利率(或利潤率)比例是你們會用來吸收/轉嫁的?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
So on the first one, the gross margin in Q4, a little bit lower from Q3, that is primarily related to the fact that we are seeing some ramp costs, right? So we're ramping up for the increases that Christophe was just talking about. That has a bit of a bearing on the gross margin expectation. And that's why the fixed cost coverage that you would expect to benefit from the higher volume is a little bit compensated and a bit more compensated by the extra cost that we incur in the ramp as we see it now in Q4. So that's the main reason that we have there.
先回答第一個,第四季的毛利率比第三季略低,主要是因為我們看到一些爬坡(ramp)成本,對吧?我們正在為Christophe剛才談到的增量做產能爬坡。這會對毛利率預期造成一些影響。也因此,你原本預期在更高出貨量下固定成本攤提會帶來的好處,會被我們在第四季爬坡過程中所產生的額外成本部分抵銷,而且目前看起來抵銷幅度更大一些。這就是我們給出該指引的主要原因。
In terms of the price increase and to what extent is the price increase completely precious to the gross margin, of course, they are the same applies, right? I mean, one of the arguments that we've had also in our competitions with our customers, is that we are incurring costs in order to ramp, right? So ramp costs will give you some additional costs. So it will definitely be accretive to the gross margin. But again, you will see some ramp costs that we are incurring in 2027 in order to get to the elevated numbers that Christophe was just talking about and this is both for ourselves, but also into the supply chain for the reasons that, Sandeep, you just mentioned, right?
至於漲價,以及漲價在多大程度上會完全流向毛利率,當然,同樣的邏輯也適用,對吧?我的意思是,我們在與客戶的談判中也提出的一個論點是:我們為了爬坡正在承擔成本,對吧?所以爬坡成本會帶來一些額外費用。因此它肯定會對毛利率有增益(accretive)。但同樣地,你會看到我們在2027年為了達到Christophe剛才提到的更高數字而產生的一些爬坡成本;這不僅發生在我們自身,也會延伸到供應鏈端,原因正如你剛才提到的,Sandeep,對吧?
We need to make sure that the supply chain is completely attuned to what we're looking for. And of course, that also means that in some places, there is some help needed to get that done. So there is some portion of the increase -- of the price increase that we need to cover for the extraordinary ramp that we're going through. But I would say that's still a significant part of it is directly accretive to the gross margin.
我們需要確保供應鏈完全符合我們的需求。當然,這也意味著在某些地方需要一些協助才能把事情做成。因此,這次漲價中的一部分——也就是價格上調的一部分——我們需要用來覆蓋我們正在經歷的這種非常態爬坡所需的成本。但我會說,其中仍有相當大的一部分會直接增益毛利率。
Operator
Operator
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies, UBS.
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies,瑞銀(UBS)。
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Analyst
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Analyst
So I just wanted to follow up a bit on this shortage situation. Obviously, we are in a very unprecedented time with this capacity constrained for your customers. But also today, you are claiming that on your side as well, the demand will be higher than supply.
我想就這個短缺情況再追問一下。顯然,對你們的客戶而言,現在處於一個產能受限、非常前所未有的時期。但同時你們今天也表示,在你們這一端,需求也會高於供給。
So I mean, the behavior usually that people order as much as they can, especially if you start seeing someone to make sure they have the tools. And we've seen other industries some long-term agreements, some prepayment, try to get a more true sense of the demand. I was wondering if you were considering any change of the way you want to contract with your customers in those times, for example, increasing the prepayments or also adding like more the firm orders earlier to make sure you know that your customers are committed?
所以我的意思是,通常在這種情況下,人們會盡可能多地下單,特別是當你開始看到有人(或某些跡象)時,為了確保自己拿得到設備。我們也在其他產業看到一些長期協議、一些預付款,試圖更真實地掌握需求。我想請問,在這種時期,你們是否考慮改變與客戶簽約/訂約的方式,例如提高預付款比例,或是更早要求更多的確定性訂單(firm orders),以確保你們知道客戶是有承諾的?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Yes, Francois. So if we take that and we said it before, if you put an order with ASML, that's not a frivolous piece of paper that you put your name under. It comes with TWO serious commitments. One serious commitment is a commitment to make a down payment. And as I qualified it before, it's a down payment that is enough to hurt, right? So that's one element.
是的,Francois。所以如果我們來看這件事,而且我們之前也說過:當你向ASML下單時,那不是一張你隨便簽個名的紙而已。它伴隨著兩項嚴肅的承諾。第一項嚴肅的承諾,是必須支付訂金(down payment)。而如我之前所說,這筆訂金的金額是「夠痛」的,對吧?這是其中一個要素。
And secondly, a PO is a real commitment on both sides of the equation, and it also means that it's -- if you want to get rid of that commitment, that's not going to be easy, right? It's -- that comes at a price, not just the down payment, but more than that. So therefore, before customers sign a PO with ASML, they've made up their mind, they're not doing this previously.
第二,採購訂單(PO)對交易雙方都是真正的承諾,也意味著——如果你想解除這個承諾,那並不容易,對吧?這是要付出代價的,不只是訂金,還不止於此。因此,在客戶與ASML簽PO之前,他們已經下定決心;他們不會在沒有想清楚的情況下這麼做。
In terms of will you accept orders early on, as Christophe mentioned, we are getting the request of customers to to accept for us to accept their orders, their POs already for 2029 and 2030. And the only reason why Christophe words in that way that customers are requesting us and therefore, we have not yet accepted those is that we want to make sure that we have a good picture of what the overall demand in '29 and 2030 looks like that customers are currently signaling and mirror that against the capacity expansion as we see it at that point in time.
至於是否會提早接受訂單,如Christophe提到的,我們確實收到客戶的要求,希望我們現在就接受他們針對2029年與2030年的訂單、他們的PO。Christophe之所以那樣措辭、也因此我們尚未接受這些訂單,唯一原因是:我們想確保我們對2029年與2030年的整體需求樣貌有一個清楚的圖像——也就是客戶目前所釋放的訊號——並把它與我們在那個時間點所看到的產能擴張相互對照。
And we want to do that because we don't want now to accept orders from customer A, B and C. And then to tell customer D, who hasn't given orders yet for '29 and 2030, sorry, we're sold out. I mean, that would be totally inappropriate for customers that have been business partners with us for a very long period of time. So we're now really using this period of time to mirror -- to get a good understanding what is the total demand that our customers are sickening for the '29, 2030-time frame.
我們之所以要這麼做,是因為我們不希望現在就接受客戶A、B、C的訂單,然後再去告訴尚未針對2029年與2030年下單的客戶D:抱歉,我們已經售罄了。我的意思是,對於那些與我們合作了很長一段時間的商業夥伴而言,那將是完全不恰當的。所以我們現在真的在利用這段時間來對照——去充分理解:在2029、2030這個時間框架下,我們的客戶目前所「發出訊號」的總需求到底是多少。
What does it look like? What is for us a reasonable expectation of capacity as we see it in the '29, 2030-time frame? And once we have that picture ready, then we are ready to accept orders and also accept the commitments from our side to execute on those orders. So we -- the only hesitation we have at this stage is that we really want to do our homework, we're very diligent on the acceptance of the orders that customers are offering us to make sure that no single customer feels left out.
它看起來是什麼樣子?就我們而言,在2029、2030這個時間框架下,我們對產能的合理預期應該是什麼?一旦我們把這個圖像準備好,我們就會準備好接受訂單,也接受我們這一端對履行這些訂單的承諾。所以我們——目前唯一的猶豫在於:我們真的想把功課做足;我們在接受客戶提供的訂單時非常謹慎、非常勤勉,以確保沒有任何單一客戶覺得被排除在外。
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Analyst
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Analyst
Very good answer, detailed. The second one is on the High-NA news flow. I mean, Christophe, you mentioned this high-volume manufacturing in '28 with the memory guys, and also TSMC in 2030. And if I look at the parcel low-NA when we started this high-volume manufacturing, I mean, we saw a significant step-up in shipments during those years. So I was wondering if we should think about High-NA shipments in '28 to increase significantly on the back of it and potentially a double-digit number of high-end shipments to -- as we go forward?
非常好的回答,很詳細。第二個問題是關於High-NA的消息流。我的意思是,Christophe,你提到記憶體客戶在2028年進入高量產(high-volume manufacturing),以及台積電在2030年。如果我回看當年我們開始以低NA(low-NA)進入高量產時,我的意思是,那幾年出貨量出現了顯著的躍升。所以我想問,我們是否應該預期High-NA在2028年的出貨會因此顯著增加,並且隨著時間推進,高階機台的出貨量可能達到兩位數的規模——往後是這樣的趨勢嗎?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Well, I think it's -- we're still looking at the very initial ramp. I think that you are going and to see that every year, our customers are going to need more tools as they validate in manufacturing that they like INA and that most probably, the plan over time, more layers.
嗯,我認為——我們仍然處於非常初期的爬坡階段。我認為你會看到,每一年,當我們的客戶在製造端驗證他們喜歡 INA 時,他們都會需要更多工具;而且很可能,隨著時間推進,規劃會加入更多層。
I think the announcement and the drive of TSMC first on the 12-inch particle is very interesting there because the first signal it gives is that in the mind of the customer, they would be more and more use of INA because if it was not the case, I mean, no one were really bother to go to 12-inch mask on INA. So the 12-inch match drive and very wide adoption by customer and the consumption is just a sign that everyone has in mind over time to develop basically more and more adoption of INA. So with that, it's always difficult to say exactly how this will basically manifest itself.
我認為,台積電首先在 12 吋顆粒(particle)上的宣布與推動在這裡非常有意思,因為它釋放的第一個訊號是:在客戶的心目中,INA 的使用會越來越多;因為如果不是這樣,我的意思是,沒有人會真的費心在 INA 上推到 12 吋光罩。 所以,12 吋的推動、客戶非常廣泛的採用以及消耗量,只是一個跡象,顯示大家心裡都認為,隨著時間推進,基本上會發展出越來越多的 INA 採用。因此,在這樣的背景下,要精確說這將如何具體呈現,總是很困難。
We also have, of course, a very big ramp. So there's a lot of focus on building up capacity, which sometimes can have a positive or negative impact on the INA rollout, depending if customer see INA as additional capacity or potentially a bit of a slowdown. But the number will grow for sure year after year. And again, the message, I think all our customers have given this quarter with their participation into the 12-inch consortium is that they believe over time, this will become a very important technology, and the number of players will grow over time, for sure.
當然,我們也有一個非常大的爬坡。因此,很多焦點放在提升產能上,而這有時會對 INA 的導入產生正面或負面影響,取決於客戶是把 INA 視為額外產能,還是可能帶來一些放緩。但這個數字肯定會逐年成長。再者,我認為本季所有客戶透過參與 12 吋聯盟所傳達的訊息是:他們相信隨著時間推進,這將成為非常重要的技術,而且參與者的數量也一定會隨時間增加。
Operator
Operator
Lee Simpson, Morgan Stanley.
Lee Simpson,摩根士丹利。
Lee Simpson - Analyst
Lee Simpson - Analyst
And maybe just a follow-up to the last answer set. I thought it was quite interesting that if you look at the non-current liabilities, there's quite a material jump Q-on-Q, were of the order of about $5 billion. And typically, the bulk of that is down payment. So can we make a read through to a relative size of big order intake in Q3? That's question number one.
也許就上一個回答再追問一下。我覺得很有意思的是,如果你看非流動負債,季對季有相當明顯的跳升,大約在 50 億美元左右。而通常其中大部分是預收款(down payment)。所以我們能否由此推讀 Q3 大額訂單流入(order intake)的相對規模?這是第一個問題。
And I think maybe alongside that, it did seem to infer, Christophe, in your answer to last question that it's perhaps new customers that are bringing you to, sort of, thinking about the '29 and '30, sort of, framework. And as you say, you still want to keep your marginal buyers still in the mix here. Are we right in saying that most of this is coming from new customers as a result?
另外我想,與此同時,Christophe,你在回答上一題時似乎暗示,可能是新客戶讓你開始思考 2029、2030 年的框架。而如你所說,你仍希望把邊際買家也納入其中。我們是否可以說,這大部分是因為新客戶所帶來的?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
On the first one, the non-current liabilities, does that include down payments Yes, it does, right? So in that way, it is an interesting gauge of how order intake is developing. I should say it's a bit of a lagging indicator because typically, the down payment and the receipt of the money lags a little bit the actual signing of the PO. So it is a bit of a lagging indicator. But for lack of any PO numbers that you get from ASML, it's a nice project.
第一個問題,非流動負債是否包含預收款?是的,包含,對吧?因此,從這個角度看,它確實是一個有趣的指標,用來觀察訂單流入的發展。我必須說,它有點像落後指標,因為通常預收款與收款時間會比實際簽署採購訂單(PO)稍微晚一些,所以它是略為落後的指標。但在你拿不到 ASML 提供的任何 PO 數字的情況下,這是一個不錯的替代觀察方式。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
I'm not sure I fully understood the second question.
我不確定我是否完全理解第二個問題。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
So I think the second question, I think, was on the customers in '29, '30, that's express an interest to do that. I think your question is, Lee, is that a totally new customer that might potentially start with a T?. And might this be that this customer is in that way, sort of locking out existing customers.
我想第二個問題是關於 2029、2030 年的客戶——也就是表達了興趣要那樣做的客戶。我想你的問題是,Lee,這是否是一個全新的客戶,可能會以一個 T? 開頭?
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
You put it better than I would.
你說得比我更好。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
And I guess the answer is that the interest of this is being expressed is much broader, much broader. This is not linked to one specific customer. There is a far broader interesting customers to have -- to place POs for that time period.
我想答案是:表達這種興趣的範圍要廣得多、廣得多。這並不與某一個特定客戶相關。有更廣泛的客戶群對於在那個時間區間下單(PO)抱持興趣。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
And maybe to add to that because you mentioned a new customer indirectly. I think what's interesting on low-NA EUV, we've talked about increased adoption of EUV. We continue to see in fact new customer on low-NA EUV, especially when it comes to DRAM. And I would say this go a bit beyond the key customers.
另外補充一下,因為你間接提到了新客戶。我認為在低 NA EUV 上有趣的是,我們談過 EUV 採用率提升;事實上,我們持續看到低 NA EUV 的新客戶,尤其是在 DRAM 方面。
So that's another interesting dynamic that we have to indeed take into account for 2028, '29, 2030. That's another, of course, a challenge when it comes to the capacity discussion we're having, but I think it's a great news when it comes to the validation of our EUV will be used moving forward.
因此,這也是我們確實必須納入 2028、2029、2030 年考量的另一個有趣動態。當然,這也會在我們正在討論的產能議題上帶來另一項挑戰;但我認為,從驗證我們的 EUV 未來將被持續使用的角度來看,這是非常好的消息。
And the last thing I would say is that we see a similar trend on INA. So that's, I think, also a very good set of news we get from our potentially new customers.
最後我想說的是,我們在 INA 上也看到類似的趨勢。
Operator
Operator
Alexander Duval, Goldman Sachs.
Alexander Duval,高盛。
Alexander Duval - Analyst
Alexander Duval - Analyst
Many thanks for the question. Just wanted to pivot a bit and talk about immersion DUV. You talked today about how you'll reach the throughput of 330 wafers powers. So I wondered what that could directionally mean for pricing in '28 and whether we should be thinking about the kind of ASP step-ups we saw historically on EUV tools when we think about the innovation you're delivering on immersion.
非常感謝讓我提問。我想稍微轉個方向談談浸潤式 DUV。你們今天提到將把產出提升到每小時 330 片晶圓。所以我想知道,這在方向性上對 2028 年的定價可能意味著什麼;以及當我們思考你們在浸潤式產品上帶來的創新時,是否應該聯想到過去 EUV 設備曾出現的那種 ASP(平均售價)階梯式上調?
And then I would like to think also secondarily as a follow-up on logic versus memory. I wondered if it's fair to say that in the prior quarter, the incremental demand seemed to be very much related to memory, but now you seem to be seeing quite a strong balance across both Logic and Memory. So curious to what extent you'd agree with that statement and what is driving this, whether it might be across drivers like agentic AI or it could be progressed either with existing customers or new customers?
另外,作為第二個追問,關於邏輯(Logic)與記憶體(Memory)。我想問,是否可以說在上一季,增量需求看起來主要與記憶體相關,但現在你們似乎看到邏輯與記憶體兩邊都相當強勁且更為均衡。所以我想了解你們在多大程度上同意這個說法,以及背後的驅動因素是什麼——可能是像 agentic AI 這類驅動,也可能是既有客戶或新客戶的進展?
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, I can start. So I appreciate the question on the 330 with pros because this is one of the, I would say, the very short-term action we have taken to increase capacity. We're going to bring the different immersion product to 330 wafers per hour. You know that we have a slightly different version of our emergent tool, depending on the overlay requirement of our customer. But all of them at the beginning of next year will go to 330 wafers per hours.
是的,我可以先開始回答。我很感謝你問到 330(wafers per hour)這件事,因為這是我們為了提升產能所採取的、我會說是非常短期的一項行動。我們會把不同的浸潤式產品提升到每小時 330 片晶圓。你知道,依據客戶對疊對(overlay)要求不同,我們的浸潤式機台會有稍微不同的版本。但在明年年初,所有版本都會提升到每小時 330 片晶圓。
And when it comes to value and therefore, to pricing, as we discussed many times for the price, the value of scale basically with the throughput. And I think what's true for EUV will be true also for DPV. So this is both an opportunity on value, margin, pricing. It's also, of course, very helpful when it comes to capacity because you look at, of course, providing the same capacity with potentially less, too.
至於價值、因此也包括定價,如同我們多次討論的,價格的價值基本上會隨著吞吐量(throughput)而擴大。我認為,對 EUV 成立的,也同樣會對 DUV 成立。因此,這在價值、毛利、定價上都是一個機會。
Doesn't mean that we need less, too. It means that we get more capacity for our customers, of course. So that's another, I would say, creative move we have made on our portfolio to get more capacity out and we expect, again, the value to come to us in the same way to is comes productivity. That's for Deep UV.
這並不代表我們需要更少的設備。它代表的是,我們能為客戶提供更多產能,當然。所以這也是我會說,我們在產品組合上做出的另一個創新舉措,以釋放更多產能;而我們也預期,價值會以同樣的方式回到我們身上——也就是隨著生產力提升而來。以上是針對深紫外(Deep UV)。
And the second question, I think that Roger gave some number, if you look at the increase compared to last year, Memory has gone up very much. We're still on a train where memory become more and more important, 75% increase, which is, of course, significant. So you start to see the results of this huge memory investment that, by the way, is mostly DRAM to be clear. And we continue to see that moving forward.
第二個問題,我想 Roger 提到了一些數字;如果你看相較於去年增加的幅度,記憶體成長非常多。我們仍然處在一個記憶體變得愈來愈重要的趨勢之中,成長 75%,這當然是顯著的。因此你開始看到這筆龐大記憶體投資的成果;順帶一提,為了說清楚,這主要是 DRAM。而我們也持續看到這個趨勢在未來延續。
And I think we have said in the past that the ratio between logic and memory will mostly increase towards memory. Still, I will say that logic is also very strong. So to be able to predict exactly where deciding to land is difficult because I'd like to stress that we see also a very strong demand on the noting side because, of course, as you know, the two are very much coupled when it comes to delivering AI capacity to the market.
而且我想我們過去也說過,邏輯與記憶體之間的比重將大多會朝向記憶體提高。不過我仍要說,邏輯也非常強勁。因此要精準預測最後會落在哪裡很困難,因為我想強調的是,我們也看到在 noting 端有非常強的需求,因為如你所知,在把 AI 產能交付到市場這件事上,兩者是高度耦合的。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Yes. And just to give you one more data point there. So indeed, as I mentioned, logic went up 10%, around 10%. But the advanced logic piece included in there is patent. So that grew over 25% is expected to grow over 25% in this year.
是的。再給你一個數據點。確實,如我提到的,邏輯成長了 10%,大約 10%。但其中包含的先進邏輯部分是 patent。因此那一塊成長超過 25%,並且預期今年將成長超過 25%。
So you're right, memory is getting closer to logic, but logic remains very, very important. And when we look memory comes close, but I still believe that logic will outweigh memory in the total book of business for next year.
所以你說得對,記憶體正在更接近邏輯,但邏輯仍然非常、非常重要。而當我們看記憶體接近時,我仍然相信明年在整體訂單簿中,邏輯的占比仍會高於記憶體。
Operator
Operator
Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.
Chris Caso,Wolfe Research。
Chris Caso - Analyst
Chris Caso - Analyst
My question is with regard to your customer clean room constraints. And perhaps you could discuss that with respect to your decisions to expand capacity into '28, do you expect that that clean room is still a constraint on your customers' ability to add tools and add capacity? And then what does that mean as you go into potentially 2029?
我的問題是關於你們客戶無塵室的限制。也許你可以就你們決定把產能擴到 2028 年來談談:你是否預期無塵室仍會限制客戶新增設備與擴充產能的能力?那麼當你們可能進入 2029 年時,這又意味著什麼?
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, I think there's still some, what I would call, tactical constraints. So it could be that one system will move from the end of the quarter to the beginning of another one. We don't see too much of that, to be honest, but that's still possible because our customers have been ramping their clean room facility extremely fast.
我認為仍然存在一些我所謂的戰術性限制。因此可能會出現某一套系統從某一季末移到下一季初的情況。老實說,我們沒有看到太多這種情況,但仍有可能,因為我們的客戶一直在非常快速地擴建他們的無塵室設施。
If we look at the longer term, as I said before, beyond those little move or the tactical move, we have confirmed that the number our customers are giving us -- are really lined up with their plan. In fact, in many cases, when the supply is tight, we make sure before we fully allocate the tool to a customer that space will be there. The facility also will be there so that we don't ship a tool that we'll be waiting for weeks for a customer to use it because, of course, other customers will be very disappointed with that.
如果看更長期,如我之前所說,除了那些小幅移動或戰術性調整之外,我們已確認客戶提供給我們的數字——確實與他們的計畫一致。事實上,在供應吃緊時,我們在把設備完全分配給某個客戶之前,會先確認空間會到位。設施也會到位,這樣我們就不會出貨一台設備,結果客戶要等好幾週才能使用;因為當然,其他客戶會對此非常失望。
So we do a lot of work to make sure that in all the plans we have at ASML, we don't have a delay of more than a few days or weeks, I will say, in shipping our products. So short answer is, I think, no. We don't see our customer clean room constraint being a major factor on our demand.
因此我們做了大量工作,以確保在 ASML 的所有規劃中,我們在出貨產品時不會出現超過幾天或幾週的延遲。所以簡短回答是:我想,不會。我們不認為客戶無塵室限制會成為影響我們需求的主要因素。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
But to your point, Christophe, it's very clear that with everything that is being built today, it is such a massive scale. So on the one hand, that opens significant opportunities. But it also means that our customers have to manage the execution of all that construction in '27, '28 very diligently, right? So they're looking at a huge expansion of the footprint.
但就你的觀點,Christophe,很明顯,今天正在建設的一切規模極其龐大。一方面,這帶來顯著的機會。但也意味著我們的客戶必須在 2027、2028 年非常謹慎地管理所有建設的執行,對吧?所以他們正面臨廠區占地的大幅擴張。
But of course, that requires very diligent execution. And that's obviously something that we need to monitor very, very carefully. So in that way, conceptually, a lot of opportunity and not a constraint, but in reality, we need to make sure that they execute well, such as it hasn't become constrained.
但當然,這需要非常嚴謹的執行。而這顯然是我們必須非常、非常仔細監控的事情。因此從概念上來說,這是大量機會而非限制;但在現實中,我們需要確保他們執行得好,讓它不至於變成受限。
Chris Caso - Analyst
Chris Caso - Analyst
As a follow-up - follow-up question is with regard to China. And you talked about that at 20% of your systems revenue this year. What should we expect going forward with respect to China? Do you expect it to maintain those levels as you go into next year?
追問——追問的問題是關於中國。你提到今年中國占你們系統營收的 20%。就中國而言,未來我們應該期待什麼?你是否預期明年仍能維持在這樣的水準?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
I think the intrinsic demand in China is strong, right? If you look at what China needs in terms of mainstream logic, in terms of memory, there is very strong demand in China for their domestic for the domestic consumption. If you look at the fabs that are being built in China that is -- there is a lot coming online there and therefore, we would expect that the demand in China to be strong, this year 20%. And I would argue that also for 2027 and beyond based on the intrinsic drivers, it seems that the demand situation in China remains very strong.
我認為中國的內生需求很強,對吧?如果你看中國在主流邏輯、記憶體方面的需求,中國為了國內消費而產生的本土需求非常強。如果你看正在中國興建的晶圓廠——那裡有很多產能正在上線,因此我們預期中國的需求會很強;今年是 20%。而我也會主張,基於這些內生驅動因素,2027 年及之後,中國的需求態勢看起來仍然非常強勁。
Operator
Operator
Tammy Qiu, Berenberg.
Tammy Qiu,Berenberg。
Tammy Qiu - Analyst
Tammy Qiu - Analyst
So firstly, it's on your value-based pricing. So make sure you have your increasing pricing. Going forward, let's say, this tightness in the industry continues, do you think you'll be to negotiate price increase every single year.
首先是關於你們的價值導向定價。也就是確保你們在提高定價。往前看,假設產業的緊俏狀況持續,你認為你們能否每一年都談到漲價?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Well, Tammy, that wasn't the plan, to be honest.
嗯,Tammy,老實說,那不是原本的計畫。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
We were smiling.
我們在微笑。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
We were smiling. Customer are listening.
我們在微笑。客戶正在聽。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, exactly.
是的,沒錯。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Exactly. That was in the past. So we've had these conversations with customers that given everything that the ecosystem is going through. And given the efforts that we're all going through to meet the rate requirements, we thought that we were in to a higher percentage and we were able to get there with customers. And we would see that as something that is possible within our value-based pricing model, but we would not be looking at repeating this every year or so. That is not the plan.
沒錯。那是過去的事。所以我們與客戶進行了這些對話,考量到整個生態系正在經歷的一切。也考量到我們所有人為了滿足產能爬坡(rate)要求所付出的努力,我們認為我們會走向較高的百分比,而我們也能與客戶達成。我們會把這視為在我們的價值導向定價模型下可行的事情,但我們不會想要每年或類似頻率地重複這件事。那不是計畫。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
No, I would add to Roger. I think mostly you notice this, mostly one of the very first time we have this discussion with customer. If you go back many years back, this is something we never did.
不,我補充 Roger 的說法。我想你會注意到,這大多是我們第一次與客戶進行這樣的討論之一。如果你回顧很多年前,這是我們從未做過的事。
And Roger mentioned in the introduction, the discussion were constructive. I think they were more than constructive, meaning there was a clear acceptance that maybe the overall value in the ecosystem is shifting. And that's triggered by, of course, AI to some extent. And I would say, we will see what the future brings, but at least we have been able to have a very good, very mature discussion, which I think is very important.
而 Roger 在開場提到,這些討論是建設性的。我認為不只是建設性,意思是大家清楚接受:也許生態系中的整體價值正在移轉。而這在某種程度上當然是由 AI 所觸發的。我會說,我們會看看未來會帶來什麼,但至少我們已能進行非常好的、非常成熟的討論,我認為這非常重要。
So something we never did before, we don't want to do that every year because that's not the purpose. But I think that it's very good that in principle, at least we have the ability, and mostly once a while, to discuss again what's the real value of lithography in the entire ecosystem.
所以,這是我們以前從未做過的事;我們不想每年都做,因為那不是目的。但我認為很好的是,至少在原則上,我們具備這種能力,而且大多在偶爾的時候,可以再次討論微影在整個生態系中的真正價值。
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Absolutely. And Tammy, as you know, one of the key objectives for us in the pricing conversation is to make sure that we never depart from the concept of value-based pricing because we don't want to be in a position that if the market goes down, that we're actually having discussions with customers and price decreases. I mean -- and that is very well understood in the conversations with our customers as we've had it. So to Christophe's point, these have been conversations on fairness.
當然。而且 Tammy,如你所知,在定價討論中,我們的一個關鍵目標是確保我們絕不偏離「價值導向定價」的概念,因為我們不希望落入這樣的處境:一旦市場下行,我們就得與客戶討論降價。我的意思是——而且在我們與客戶的對話中,這一點他們也非常理解。所以呼應 Christophe 的觀點,這些對話是圍繞公平性展開的。
But the premise that we are able to capture value of the next generation of tools, and that as a result of that, we're able to continue to increase the price in commensurate with the value that it brings. That is a principle that we want to sustain even if the market goes to go back a little bit. So that's the reason why we're not opportunistically pricing while we're not opportunistically seizing the opportunity and why we're executing along the lines of what Christophe just described.
但前提是,我們能夠捕捉下一代工具所帶來的價值,並且因此能夠在與其帶來的價值相匹配的情況下持續提高價格。即使市場稍微回落,這也是我們希望維持的原則。所以這就是為什麼我們不會機會主義式地定價、也不會機會主義式地趁勢而為,而是依照 Christophe 剛才所描述的方向來執行。
Tammy Qiu - Analyst
Tammy Qiu - Analyst
Okay. That's really clear. And secondly, regarding your exposure in China. So I understand that China will never be able to compete with you from a technology perspective. But going to, let's say, 2029-ish, when you work out, let's say, a low-end version of immersion tool, do you think that will decrease your potential to price at a premium versus the Chinese local players or your potential margin in Chinese market may need to come lower?
好的。這非常清楚。第二個問題,關於你們在中國的曝險。所以我理解從技術角度來看,中國永遠無法與你們競爭。但假設到 2029 年左右,當你們推出一個較低階版本的浸潤式工具時,你認為這會降低你們相對於中國本土業者維持溢價定價的能力嗎?或者你們在中國市場的潛在利潤率可能需要下調?
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Roger Dassen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Member of the Board of Management
Well, I think there's a lot of, of course, speculation in the equation. But where we are today, I think, with our Chinese customer is that they all want to work with us. I think this is very clear. I won't give any market share number, but you can imagine, it's extremely high, especially on immersion.
嗯,我認為這裡面當然有很多推測成分。但就我們目前的情況來看,我認為我們的中國客戶都希望與我們合作。我想這一點非常明確。我不會提供任何市占率數字,但你可以想像,它非常高,尤其是在浸潤式領域。
And therefore, as long as we have a good market access as one of our customers can trust, they can work with us. I think that the likelihood of a major competition in China is still pretty low. That's the first thing I will say.
因此,只要我們能維持良好的市場准入,作為他們可以信任的供應商之一,他們就能與我們合作。我認為在中國出現重大競爭的可能性仍然相當低。這是我想說的第一點。
The second is, of course, if they were to not have access to some of our tools, then you get a lot more motivation, but it's still a very, very long way to go. And I think that -- we have been having this discussion about China having a tool to compete with us for the last 25 years. And every other year, we get the news that this is coming.
第二點當然是,如果他們無法取得我們的一些工具,那麼動機就會大得多,但距離真正做到仍然非常、非常遙遠。而且我認為——我們過去 25 年一直在討論中國會有一款工具來與我們競爭。幾乎每隔一兩年,我們就會聽到這件事即將發生的消息。
If you stick to fact, I think the fact this year are not different from the fact a year ago or even 5 years ago. So I think that the progress is not very strong. The motivation is not strong at all. And I think that as long -- again, as we preserve market access in reasonable means, we should be fine.
如果你回到事實層面,我認為今年的事實與一年前、甚至五年前並沒有不同。所以我認為進展並不顯著。動機也完全不強。而且我認為只要——再次強調,只要我們能以合理方式維持市場准入,我們就會沒問題。
Jim Kavanagh - Head of Investor Relations
Jim Kavanagh - Head of Investor Relations
Okay. I just wanted to remind we've got time for one last question. So Sharon, can I ask you to ask the final question, please? And then if there are follow-on questions, please contact ASML Investor Relations and we'll do our best to follow up.
好的。我只是想提醒一下,我們只剩最後一個問題的時間。所以 Sharon,我可以請你提最後一個問題嗎?如果還有後續問題,請聯絡 ASML 投資人關係部門,我們會盡力跟進回覆。
So operator, can we have that last question, please?
那麼,接線員,我們可以請最後一位提問者發問嗎?
Operator
Operator
Stephane Houri, ODDO BHF.
Stephane Houri,ODDO BHF。
Stephane Houri - Analyst
Stephane Houri - Analyst
Actually, my question was on China initially, but just to understand the discussions that you have on 2029 and 2030, if it is more -- because you seem to be very positive at the moment on memory if it's very balanced between memory and logic or if it's still memory manufacturer, we are giving you some visibility on -- 2029 -- sorry, in 2030.
其實我原本的問題是關於中國,但我想了解你們對 2029 與 2030 年的討論:是否更多是——因為你們目前看起來對記憶體非常正面——在記憶體與邏輯之間是否相當均衡?還是仍然主要是記憶體製造商在給你們一些能見度,關於——2029——抱歉,是 2030 年。
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, I think you need both memory and logic to get some AI chips. I think we have, I think, discussion with both customers because they get the same message from their own customer. I think today, DRAM is a bit more aggressive on the buildup of those capacity. But yes, we have discussion with both. So I think we see equal interest in call, I would say, demand trajectory for both DRAM and Logic because we need both basically to get the product out.
嗯,我認為要做出一些 AI 晶片,你同時需要記憶體和邏輯。我想我們與兩類客戶都有在討論,因為他們都從各自的客戶那裡收到相同的訊息。我認為目前 DRAM 在擴建這些產能方面稍微更積極一些。但沒錯,我們兩邊都有在談。所以我會說,我們看到 DRAM 與邏輯在需求走勢上都有同等的興趣,因為基本上兩者都需要,才能把產品做出來。
Stephane Houri - Analyst
Stephane Houri - Analyst
And DRAM, is it at the same time the U.S., Korea, and even China, or is it more concentrated from a geographic standpoint?
那 DRAM 方面,是同時涵蓋美國、韓國、甚至中國嗎?還是從地理角度來看更集中?
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Christophe Fouquet - Chairman of the Management Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
I think that we're mostly talking about EUV in this case. So this excludes China.
我認為在這個情境下,我們主要談的是 EUV。所以這不包含中國。
Jim Kavanagh - Head of Investor Relations
Jim Kavanagh - Head of Investor Relations
Okay. Thank you, everyone. On behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you for joining the call today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd be very much appreciated. Thank you.
好的。謝謝各位。我謹代表 ASML,感謝各位今天參與本次電話會議。接線員,若您能正式結束本次會議,我將不勝感激。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes the ASML 2026 third-quarter financial results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
謝謝。本次 ASML 2026 年第三季財務結果電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。