艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2019 First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on April 17, 2019. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to open the Q&A. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、各位先生，感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 ASML 於 2019 年 4 月 17 日舉行的 2019 年第一季財務業績電話會議。(接線員指示) 我現在開放問答環節。(接線員指示)

I would now like to turn this conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在把本次電話會議交給 Skip Miller 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today from ASML's headquarters in Veldhoven, The Netherlands, is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. Subject of today's call is ASML's 2019 first quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

謝謝，接線員。各位女士、各位先生，下午好、早安。我是 Skip Miller，ASML 投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一同在荷蘭費爾德霍芬（Veldhoven）ASML 總部出席的有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink，以及財務長 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2019 年第一季業績。本次電話會議時間為 60 分鐘，並將依收到提問的順序回答問題。本次電話會議也將透過 asml.com 進行網路直播。管理層開場致詞的逐字稿以及本次電話會議的重播，將於本次電話會議結束後不久在我們的網站上提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位聽眾，管理層在本次電話會議中的評論將包含符合聯邦證券法定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險與不確定性。關於風險因素的討論，我鼓勵各位查閱今日新聞稿與簡報中所載的「安全港」聲明（可於 asml.com 取得），以及 ASML 於 Form 20-F 的年度報告與其他向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

接下來，我想把電話會議交給 Peter Wennink，請他做簡短開場。

Thank you, Skip. Good morning, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2019 results conference call.

謝謝你，Skip。各位女士、各位先生，早安、午安，感謝各位參加我們 2019 年第一季業績電話會議。

Before we begin the question-and-answer session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the first quarter as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. And Roger will start with a review of our Q1 financial performance with some added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook.

在開始問答環節之前，Roger 和我想先就第一季提供概覽與一些評論，並分享我們對未來幾季的看法。Roger 將先回顧我們第一季的財務表現，並補充對短期展望的評論；我將以對當前商業環境及未來業務展望的補充說明來完成開場。

Roger, if you will.

Roger，請。

Thank you, Peter. Welcome, everyone. I will first highlight some of the first quarter accomplishments and then provide our guidance for the second quarter of 2019.

謝謝你，Peter。各位好，歡迎大家。我將先重點說明第一季的一些成果，接著提供我們對 2019 年第二季的指引。

Although this was a modest quarter, in absolute numbers, we did report both sales and gross margin above our guidance. Q1 net sales came in at EUR 2.23 billion, slightly above guidance, driven by an additional EUV shipment in the quarter. Net systems sales of EUR 1.69 billion was more weighted towards Logic, 60%, with the remaining 40% for Memory, the same split as previous quarter. We reported EUV system revenue of EUR 371 million from 4 shipments. Installed base management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 540 million, which was slightly lower than guided due to lower upgrade business.

雖然以絕對數字來看這是一個相對溫和的季度，但我們的銷售額與毛利率皆高於指引。第一季淨銷售額為 22.3 億歐元，略高於指引，主要受惠於本季額外出貨一台 EUV 系統。系統淨銷售額為 16.9 億歐元，結構較偏向邏輯（Logic），占 60%；其餘 40% 來自記憶體（Memory），與前一季相同。我們認列 4 台出貨的 EUV 系統營收 3.71 億歐元。本季裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）銷售額為 5.40 億歐元，因升級業務較少而略低於指引。

Gross margin for the quarter was 41.6%, which is slightly higher than the 40% guided due to a favorable Deep UV mix more than compensating for gross margin impact of one additional EUV system. Overall, R&D and SG&A expenses came in a little lower than guided with R&D expenses of EUR 473 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 121 million.

本季毛利率為 41.6%，略高於指引的 40%，原因是有利的深紫外（Deep UV）產品組合，足以抵銷額外一台 EUV 系統對毛利率的影響。整體而言，研發（R&D）與銷售、一般及行政（SG&A）費用略低於指引，其中研發費用為 4.73 億歐元，SG&A 費用為 1.21 億歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. EUR 55 million worth of shares were repurchased in Q1. We ended last quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 3.28 billion.

接著看資產負債表。第一季回購股票金額為 5,500 萬歐元。我們在上季末的現金、約當現金與短期投資為 32.8 億歐元。

Moving to the order book. Q1 system bookings came in at EUR 1.40 billion. Logic order intake was 75% of total value with the remaining 25% from Memory, again reflecting the strong logic demand expected this year. We took 3 new EUV orders in the quarter.

再來看訂單。第一季系統接單金額為 14.0 億歐元。邏輯訂單占總金額的 75%，其餘 25% 來自記憶體，再次反映我們預期今年邏輯需求強勁。本季我們新增 3 筆 EUV 訂單。

Net income in Q1 was EUR 355 million, representing 15.9% of net sales and an EPS of EUR 0.84. This was favorably impacted by a one-off tax benefit.

第一季淨利為 3.55 億歐元，占淨銷售額的 15.9%，每股盈餘（EPS）為 0.84 歐元。此結果受一次性稅務利益的正面影響。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the second quarter of 2019. We expect Q2 total net sales between EUR 2.5 billion and EUR 2.6 billion. Our total net sales forecast to Q2 includes around EUR 600 million of EUV system revenue on 6 expected shipments in Q2. We expect our Q2 installed base management revenue to be around EUR 700 million.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2019 年第二季的預期。我們預期第二季淨銷售總額介於 25 億至 26 億歐元。我們對第二季淨銷售總額的預測包含約 6 億歐元的 EUV 系統營收，對應第二季預計出貨 6 台。我們預期第二季裝機基礎管理營收約為 7 億歐元。

Gross margin for Q2 is expected to be between 41% and 42%. The lower-margin EUV revenue will be compensated by higher-margin non-EUV business. We continue to expect further improvements in gross margin in the second half driven by higher system sales, increased field upgrades, shipment of higher-margin NXT:3400C systems as well as contribution of EUV service revenue. This will provide a significant step towards our 2020 target of over 50%.

第二季毛利率預期介於 41% 至 42%。毛利率較低的 EUV 營收將由毛利率較高的非 EUV 業務所補償。我們仍預期下半年毛利率將進一步改善，動能來自更高的系統銷售、更多的現場升級、出貨毛利率較高的 NXT:3400C 系統，以及 EUV 服務營收的貢獻。這將使我們朝 2020 年超過 50% 的目標邁出重要一步。

Expected R&D expenses for Q2 are around EUR 485 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at around EUR 125 million. Our estimated 2019 annualized effective tax rate is around 11% because of a one-off tax benefit in 2019. We still expect our long-term effective tax rate to be 14%.

第二季預期研發費用約為 4.85 億歐元，SG&A 預期約為 1.25 億歐元。由於 2019 年的一次性稅務利益，我們估計 2019 年年化有效稅率約為 11%。我們仍預期長期有效稅率為 14%。

As we remain confident in our long-term growth, we will propose a 50% increase versus last year in our dividend to EUR 2.10 per share at our Annual Shareholder Meeting, which takes place on April 24 in Veldhoven. The dividend payment is valued at around EUR 0.9 billion. We still expect to execute the remaining EUR 1.3 billion of the 2018-2019 share buyback program this year with a weighting towards the back of the year.

在我們對長期成長仍具信心的情況下，我們將在 4 月 24 日於費爾德霍芬舉行的年度股東大會上，提案將股利較去年提高 50%，至每股 2.10 歐元。股利支付金額約為 9 億歐元。我們仍預期今年將執行 2018-2019 年股票回購計畫剩餘的 13 億歐元，且回購比重將偏向年底。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter.

接下來，我把電話會議交回給 Peter。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, although it was a modest quarter, the results came in above our guidance, and we expect further strengthening in the coming quarters. There continues to be volatility in the markets due to the macroeconomic environment, and some uncertainty remains in the semiconductor industry. Our memory customers are going through a period of rebalancing supply and demand with an expected improvement in their business conditions over the course of the year.

謝謝你，Roger。如 Roger 所強調，雖然這是一個相對溫和的季度，但結果高於我們的指引，我們預期未來幾季將進一步走強。由於總體經濟環境，市場仍持續波動，半導體產業也仍存在一些不確定性。我們的記憶體客戶正處於供需再平衡的階段，並預期其業務狀況將在今年內逐步改善。

Our view of 2019 remains unchanged from last quarter. We continue to expect overall growth in 2019 with increasing demand for our products as we move through the year. The fundamental end market drivers clearly remain in place as expanding end market applications continue to fuel the demand for high-performance compute and high-performance memory.

我們對 2019 年的看法與上季相比維持不變。隨著今年進程推進，我們仍預期 2019 年整體將成長，且對我們產品的需求將增加。終端市場的基本驅動因素顯然仍然存在；不斷擴大的終端應用持續推動對高效能運算與高效能記憶體的需求。

In Memory, the NAND market continues to digest the high level of capacity additions over the past few years, and this digestion started last year and will likely extend through most of this year. DRAM market is also seeing softening in the near-term demand as they work through an inventory correction. And based on our customers' view, we continue to expect memory demand for our litho systems down around 20% relative to last year. But bear in mind, there is a portion of this memory demand that supports new technology as well as new domestic Chinese customers, and this demand is clearly more strategic and will -- is very likely to happen independent of the near-term global bit demand.

在記憶體方面，NAND 市場仍在消化過去幾年高水準的產能擴增，而這個消化過程從去年開始，並很可能延續到今年大部分時間。DRAM 市場也因為正在進行庫存修正，短期需求出現趨緩。並且根據我們客戶的看法，我們仍預期用於我們微影系統的記憶體需求相較去年約下降 20%。但請記住，這些記憶體需求中有一部分是支援新技術以及新的中國本土客戶，而這部分需求顯然更具策略性，並且——很可能會在不受短期全球位元需求影響的情況下發生。

If you remove these 2 components from our estimated 2019 memory demand, you get the lithography spend for memory bit supply that is 30% lower than the comparable spend in 2018. This reduction in spend is significant and will help in correcting the supply-demand balance. And on top of this, we have seen a significant reduction in wafer output in the memory space. This quick reaction to the changes in the end market demand is clearly different from what we've seen in earlier cycles and will also help in correcting the inventory situation.

如果你把這兩個組成部分從我們估計的 2019 年記憶體需求中扣除，你會得到用於記憶體位元供給的微影支出，相較 2018 年可比支出低 30%。這項支出縮減幅度顯著，將有助於修正供需平衡。此外，我們也看到記憶體領域的晶圓產出大幅下降。對終端市場需求變化的快速反應，顯然不同於我們在先前週期中所見，也將有助於改善庫存狀況。

The Logic segment is expected to be the growth driver in 2019 with the majority of the demand linked to technology transitions and production capacity for advanced nodes. We still expect this Logic business to be up around 50% relative to last year, driven by Deep UV as well as significant EUV demand. Furthermore, we still expect single-digit percentage growth of installed base revenue.

邏輯（Logic）部門預期將成為 2019 年的成長動能，且大部分需求與技術轉換以及先進節點的量產產能相關。我們仍預期邏輯業務相較去年成長約 50%，由深紫外（Deep UV）以及顯著的 EUV 需求所帶動。此外，我們仍預期裝機基礎（installed base）營收將有個位數百分比成長。

On the ASML product side, let me start with an update of our EUV business. In EUV customers are starting production of the most advanced logic processes on our NXE:3400B systems, with plans to transition to the higher-productivity NXE:3400C systems in the second half of the year. First set of qualified NXE:3400C optics are in our factory. These higher transmission optics will enable the higher throughput of 170 wafers per hour. We expect these systems will deliver the next level of cost-effective shrink in both Logic and Memory. We shipped 4 EUV systems in Q1 and are all in track to ship to plants 30 systems in 2019.

在 ASML 產品面，我先從 EUV 業務的最新進展談起。在 EUV 方面，客戶正開始在我們的 NXE:3400B 系統上量產最先進的邏輯製程，並計畫在今年下半年轉換至生產力更高的 NXE:3400C 系統。第一批通過認證的 NXE:3400C 光學系統已在我們工廠。這些更高穿透率的光學元件將使產能提升至每小時 170 片晶圓的更高吞吐量。我們預期這些系統將在邏輯與記憶體兩方面，帶來下一階段具成本效益的微縮。我們在第一季出貨了 4 台 EUV 系統，並且仍按計畫在 2019 年出貨 30 台至晶圓廠。

In Deep UV, we continue to innovate in support of future nodes and new applications. Driven by continued high level of demand for Dry products, we will bring the Dry -- the Deep UV Dry products to the high-performance NXT platform, starting with the NXT:1470 planned for delivery mid next year. We also see increasing demand for 200-millimeter TWINSCAN systems across all dry wavelengths and industry segments. For instance, in thin film head manufacturing, we recently received an order for a special version of the XT:1470K (sic) [XT:1460K], which is a dry ArF platform, which is expected to enable the shrink road map at a leading hard disk storage manufacturer.

在深紫外（Deep UV）方面，我們持續創新以支援未來節點與新應用。在乾式（Dry）產品需求持續維持高水準的帶動下，我們將把乾式——也就是深紫外乾式產品——導入高效能的 NXT 平台，首先是預計於明年年中交付的 NXT:1470。我們也看到 200 毫米 TWINSCAN 系統在所有乾式波長與各產業領域的需求增加。例如，在薄膜磁頭製造方面，我們近期收到一筆針對 XT:1470K（原文如此）[XT:1460K] 特殊版本的訂單；該機型為乾式 ArF 平台，預期可協助一家領先的硬碟儲存製造商推進其微縮路線圖。

In our application business, our computational lithography deep-learning technology has been adopted at several leading-edge customers. We continue to make progress in e-beam technology and are on track to deliver a multi-beam system for this year for R&D with plans for commercial product shipments in 2020. With the announcement of the acquisition of Mapper's IP assets in January, more than 100 former Mapper employees accepted jobs from ASML and are now working on the development road map of our e-beam and application products.

在我們的應用業務方面，我們的計算微影深度學習技術已被多家先進客戶採用。我們在電子束（e-beam）技術上持續取得進展，並按計畫於今年交付一套用於研發的多束系統，並規劃於 2020 年開始商用產品出貨。隨著我們在一月宣布收購 Mapper 的 IP 資產，超過 100 位前 Mapper 員工接受 ASML 的工作邀約，現正投入我們電子束與應用產品的開發路線圖。

In summary, despite uncertainty in the current environment, we continue to see market demand that supports another growth year with strengthening of both sales and profitability quarter-on-quarter this year. Logic will be the primary driver of growth this year, supported by technology transitions and production ramp of the most advanced nodes.

總結來說，儘管目前環境存在不確定性，我們仍看到市場需求支撐今年再度成長，且今年各季銷售與獲利能力將逐季走強。邏輯將是今年成長的主要驅動力，並由技術轉換以及最先進節點的量產爬坡所支撐。

As discussed, Memory includes more uncertainty, on the one hand, because of the uncertainty of global bit demand, but on the other hand, due to fast adjustment of production capacity and, therefore, presents both a risk and an opportunity. Overall, our view of the business is largely unchanged from last quarter. We are on track to achieve our 2020 targets with significant growth potential beyond 2020.

如前所述，記憶體包含較多不確定性：一方面來自全球位元需求的不確定性；但另一方面，由於產能調整迅速，因此同時呈現風險與機會。整體而言，我們對業務的看法與上季相比大致不變。我們正按計畫達成 2020 年目標，且在 2020 年之後仍具顯著成長潛力。

With that, we would be happy to take your questions.

接下來，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. Beforehand, I'd like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-up, if necessary. This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible.

各位女士、先生，接線員稍後將說明問答環節的流程。在此之前，我想請各位盡量只提一個問題，必要時再加上一個簡短追問。這將讓我們能夠回答盡可能多位來電者的問題。

Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then first question please?

那麼，接線員，請先提供最後的說明，然後請接第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Mr. C.J. Muse of Evercore ISI.

(接線員指示) 第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse 先生。

I guess first question on your Memory outlook, if I were to exclude expected EUV shipments, it looks like Memory half -- over half for you guys is roughly up 30%, give or take, in the second half. And so curious there, is that all largely shrinks? Or are you starting to see greenfield from the 3D NAND side? I would love to hear your thoughts and any color on that from you.

我想先問關於你們對記憶體的展望：如果我排除預期的 EUV 出貨，看起來你們記憶體下半年——超過一半——大約成長 30% 左右，可能上下有些差異。所以我很好奇，這主要都是微縮（shrinks）嗎？還是你們開始看到來自 3D NAND 端的新建廠（greenfield）需求？很想聽聽你們的想法，以及你們能提供的任何補充說明。

Well, thank you, CJ. No capacity additions on the 3D NAND side. That's not what we're seeing. It's really technology transitions other than EUV. So it's largely in the DRAM space.

嗯，謝謝你，CJ。在 3D NAND 方面沒有新增產能。我們看到的不是那樣。這其實是 EUV 以外的技術轉換。所以主要是在 DRAM 領域。

Okay. Helpful. And then I guess as my follow-up, as you think about DRAM and adoption of EUV, it sounds like, perhaps, layer count could increase from perhaps to as many as 4 layers, would love to hear how you're thinking about that, how you're thinking about that ramp and I guess what contributions to EUV we could see into the 2020-2021 time frame.

好的。很有幫助。那我追問一下，當你們思考 DRAM 導入 EUV 時，聽起來層數可能會增加，或許最多到 4 層；很想聽聽你們如何看待這點、如何看待這個爬坡，以及我想在 2020 到 2021 年期間，我們可能看到 EUV 帶來哪些貢獻。

Yes. That's a very good question. I think as you know, DRAM is much more -- we started -- I think we discussed this on previous calls also. It's much more cost-sensitive than the logic space. It actually means that the higher productivity EUV tool, the 3400C, is the tool of record for DRAM manufacturing.

是的。這是個非常好的問題。我想如你所知，DRAM 更加——我們開始——我想我們在之前的電話會議也討論過。它比邏輯領域更具成本敏感性。這其實意味著，更高生產力的 EUV 設備，也就是 3400C，將是 DRAM 製造的標準機台（tool of record）。

Now clearly, we're in the process of maturing that 3400C tool in terms of availability, in terms of the productivity, of course, we seem to be proven in the customer fab. So I would expect that by the end of this year, I would say somewhere in Q4, where we see the first results of those tools in the customer fabs. And we would need the projected wafers-per-day productivity, which is a result of the raw throughput plus the availability. That will really drive the number of layers, ultimately, in application of DRAM.

現在很明顯地，我們正在讓 3400C 設備在可用率與生產力等方面走向成熟；當然，我們似乎已在客戶晶圓廠中得到驗證。因此我預期到今年年底，我會說大約在第四季，我們會看到這些設備在客戶晶圓廠中的第一批成果。而我們需要達到預期的每日晶圓產出（wafers-per-day）生產力，這是由原始吞吐量加上可用率所共同決定。這將真正驅動最終在 DRAM 應用中所採用的層數。

I would expect, though, that customers will first allocate a relatively small portion of their output to EUV because it's a new technology, it's a new process. But when that is proven, that can accelerate. So it's -- you could really say it's really up to us to make sure -- and of course, together with our customers, because we -- it's new technology, new process technology, we need to prove that in the course of this year really towards the end of the year that the promised productivity and availability is there, that we beat the 2,000 wafer per day target that we've set ourselves and even see whether we can get higher. And going up, I would say, significantly above the 2,000 wafers per day, which ultimately, should be possible, will drive the adoption of the number of DRAM layers.

不過我預期，客戶一開始會先把其產出中相對較小的一部分分配給 EUV，因為這是新技術、也是新製程。但一旦證明可行，就能加速。所以——你真的可以說，這很大程度取決於我們要確保——當然也要與客戶一起，因為這是新技術、新製程技術，我們需要在今年的過程中、確實在接近年底時，證明承諾的生產力與可用率都能達成，證明我們能超越我們為自己設定的每日 2,000 片晶圓目標，甚至看看是否能更高。而我會說，若能顯著高於每日 2,000 片晶圓——最終應該是可能的——將會推動 DRAM 層數採用的提升。

So it's a bit too early to give you a guidance on the 2020-2021. It really depends on how we perform, and of course, it's our -- in our best interest and that of our customers to do as good as possible.

所以現在要給你 2020-2021 年的指引還有點太早。這真的取決於我們的表現，當然，做到最好符合我們以及客戶的最大利益。

Our next question is from Mr. Krish Sankar.

下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 先生。

It's Cowen and Co. I have two of them. Peter, you kind of reiterated your EUV outlook for this year with 30 units. So is it fair to assume that these units are pretty much locked and loaded and your customers have gotten the green light from their customers to proceed with EUV for their end products in the second half?

Cowen and Co。我有兩個問題。Peter，你某種程度上重申了你今年 EUV 的展望是 30 台。那麼是否可以合理假設，這些機台基本上已經確定無虞，而你們的客戶也已經從他們的客戶那邊拿到綠燈，得以在下半年針對其終端產品導入 EUV？

Why -- I think -- Krish, I think that is a fair assumption because these are not cheap tools. So to spend that kind of CapEx without having the business and without having some -- decent level of commitments from your end customer, that's probably not very likely. So yes. I would say yes.

為什麼——我想——Krish，我認為這是合理的假設，因為這些設備並不便宜。所以在沒有業務、也沒有從終端客戶那邊取得某種——相當程度的承諾之前，就投入那樣的資本支出（CapEx），大概不太可能。所以是的。我會說是的。

Got it, got it. That's very helpful. And then a question on the Memory side. Your Memory orders have been down sharply for the last 2 quarters, and it looks like it's stabilizing at least EUR 300 million run rate levels. And you also mentioned that Memory business should improve as a course -- through the course of the year. But given your long lead times, is there a way to figure out if your -- if DRAM or NAND is going to bottom out at some point for your customers? How many quarters before they will come and place the orders for ASML tools?

了解，了解。這很有幫助。接著是記憶體方面的問題。你們的記憶體訂單在過去兩個季度大幅下滑，看起來至少在每季約 3 億歐元的運行率水準上趨於穩定。你也提到記憶體業務應該會在今年的進程中改善。但考量你們很長的交期，有沒有方法判斷你們的客戶那邊 DRAM 或 NAND 何時會觸底？他們會在觸底前幾個季度回來下 ASML 設備的訂單？

Yes. Like I said in my introductory comments, what we're seeing is there's a bit difference to what we're seeing in previous cycles. There's the pretty rapid reaction of customers to actually reduce output, so basically to lower the utilization. I think that is an attempt of the customers to quickly adapt the imbalance in supply and demand.

有。如同我在開場說明中提到的，我們看到的情況與以往週期有些不同。客戶對於實際減少產出、也就是降低稼動率的反應相當迅速。我認為這是客戶試圖快速調整供需失衡的一種做法。

Now that will lead to a situation whereby in the course of the year -- and many customers have actually said this, that they expect throughout this year, could be middle of the year or at the end of the year, but throughout this year, a better situation for them and a return to better business levels for them.

這將導致一種情況：在今年的過程中——而且許多客戶其實也這麼說——他們預期在今年之內，可能是年中或年底，但在今年之內，他們的情況會變得更好，並回到較佳的業務水準。

Actually, so what that means is that we don't expect this year that there will be a big snapback in demand for those systems, because if you lower the utilization now, first, what you will do is use that utilization when you go up. So that probably means that if we see a correction, it's going to be next year and not this year.

實際上，這代表我們不預期今年對那些系統的需求會出現大幅反彈，因為如果你現在降低稼動率，當景氣回升時，你首先會做的是把稼動率拉回來使用。所以這大概意味著，如果我們會看到一波修正（回補），那會是在明年而不是今年。

Now having said that, the -- we are preparing the supply chain. We always have in the supply chain a certain level of buffers so we can have a rapid response shipment ready, which is true for the long lead time items. That's our optic supply and some very long lead time electromechanical parts of our tool.

話雖如此，我們——正在為供應鏈做準備。我們在供應鏈中一向會保有一定程度的緩衝，以便能快速回應出貨需求，這對於長交期項目尤其如此。那就是我們的光學供應，以及設備中一些交期非常長的機電零組件。

So the first snapback, we probably can do within a relatively short period of time, and that gives us a time to also organize the supply chain if the ramp turns out to be more substantial and longer term.

所以第一波反彈，我們大概可以在相對短的時間內因應，而這也讓我們有時間在擴產幅度更大、且更長期的情況下，進一步組織供應鏈。

Next question is from Mr. Sandeep Deshpande.

下一個問題來自 Sandeep Deshpande 先生。

JPMorgan. Peter, just one first question from me on EUV. You just -- from an earlier question, you responded regarding the Memory, and Memory adoption of EUV into 2020 depends on the 3400C. So how confident are you on the EUV shipments into 2020 based on what guidance you've given in the past? And what will drive those shipments into 2020 at this point based on -- clearly, you've already -- from -- probably getting indications from your customers on these trends?

JPMorgan。Peter，我先問一個關於 EUV 的問題。你剛才——在先前的問題中，你在回應記憶體時提到，記憶體在 2020 年導入 EUV 取決於 3400C。那麼，基於你過去給出的指引，你對 2020 年 EUV 出貨有多大信心？而就目前而言，推動 2020 年出貨的因素會是什麼——顯然你已經——從——可能已經從客戶那邊得到一些關於這些趨勢的訊號？

Yes, we did. I think what we are planning -- what we have given you as an indication in the past, and I'd like to refer to the update that we gave at the Capital Markets Day last year where we gave you kind of a mid-scenario, where we look at that number. Then I think everything that we're currently seeing in terms of logic demand, the use of EUV at 7, 7 plus, 6 and 5 nanometer, I think that confirms our thinking for that particular number that we gave you.

是的，我們有。我認為我們的規劃——也就是我們過去給你們的指引，我想引用我們在去年資本市場日（Capital Markets Day）所做的更新，當時我們給了一個中性情境（mid-scenario），並以那個數字作為觀察。我認為我們目前看到的所有情況，包括邏輯需求、EUV 在 7、7+、6 與 5 奈米的使用，都印證了我們對於當時所給那個數字的看法。

And there is a level of memory shipments in there also, whereby we assume that at least in a moderate market scenario, we will ship some numbers to -- some shipments to Memory customers also. So all in all, I think we have in our moderate market scenario 2020 about 33 EUV units, and that's what we're targeting at.

其中也包含一定程度的記憶體出貨，我們假設至少在溫和的市場情境下，我們也會對記憶體客戶出貨一些數量。所以整體而言，我認為在我們的溫和市場情境中，2020 年大約是 33 台 EUV，而這就是我們的目標。

Now is there some upside potential? I think if the 3400C works indeed as smoothly as we're planning, that could be. But that means we should have, I would say, double-digit, above the 2,000 wafers per day level. Then yes, this could spark some additional demand. And then customers should give us approval to get more out than those 33 systems. But this is what we're currently seeing as the most likely scenario. So that's what we told you back in November last year.

那是否有一些上行潛力？我認為如果 3400C 的運作確實如我們規劃般順暢，是有可能的。但那意味著我們應該要達到，我會說，兩位數的提升，且高於每日 2,000 片晶圓的水準。那麼是的，這可能會引發一些額外需求。接著客戶也必須核准我們把出貨量提高到超過那 33 套系統。但這是我們目前看到最可能的情境。所以這就是我們去年 11 月告訴你們的內容。

And just -- I mean following up on margin question associated with EUV, I mean, in the second half of this year, I mean, you're looking at shipping about 10 tools a quarter. So essentially, you're at scale in terms of quarterly volume on EUV. So would you be expecting to be shipping scale margin as well? You've talked about in the past that EUV can grow about 40% gross margin initially, but then by 2022 or so, going towards the DUV level of gross margins. So do you think that you will be at that scale margin?

另外——我是說，延伸追問與 EUV 相關的毛利問題：今年下半年，你們看起來每季大約出貨 10 台設備。所以本質上，你們在 EUV 的季度出貨量上已經達到規模。那你們是否也會期待毛利率出現規模效益？你們過去談過，EUV 初期毛利率可達約 40%，但到 2022 年左右，會朝向 DUV 的毛利率水準靠攏。所以你認為你們會達到那樣的規模毛利嗎？

No. That's roughly speaking the trajectory that we're on. I think what is important to recognize, Sandeep, is that for the second half, it will still be a mix, right? It will be a mix of 3400B machines and 3400C machines. But in the course of the second half, starting in Q3, we'll see the first C shipments with the considerably better gross margin profile associated with that.

不會。大致來說，我們正沿著那樣的軌跡前進。我認為重要的是要認知到，Sandeep，下半年仍然會是混合組合，對吧？會是 3400B 機台與 3400C 機台的混合。但在下半年的過程中，從第三季開始，我們會看到第一批 C 機型出貨，而其對應的毛利結構會明顯更好。

But what you just mentioned, the 40% for 2020 and then that gradually growing towards the margin that we have on DPV, that's exactly what we confirmed at the Capital Markets Day.

但你剛才提到的，2020 年 40% 然後逐步提升至我們在 DPV 上的毛利率水準，這正是我們在資本市場日所確認的。

Our next question is from Mr. Weston Twigg.

下一個問題來自 Weston Twigg 先生。

With KeyBanc Capital Markets. Just wondering if you could help us on the Logic side, just like you did on the Memory. If you stripped out the EUV ramp or the technology purchases, what do you think the core Logic revenue growth would be this year?

來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets。想請教一下邏輯（Logic）端的情況，就像你們剛才對記憶體（Memory）所做的說明一樣。如果把 EUV 放量或技術採購的因素剔除，你認為今年核心邏輯營收成長會是多少？

It's very hard to strip the technology component out there because nearly everything that we have in Logic is related to that. We would say about 85% of our shipments would be related to technology upgrade. So that's the vast majority of what's in there.

要把技術成分從中剔除非常困難，因為我們在邏輯端幾乎所有業務都與此相關。我們會說大約 85% 的出貨都與技術升級有關。所以其中絕大部分就是這些內容。

Okay. Yes, that makes sense. Maybe on e-beam then, just wondering if you have any expected changes in the growth rate related to the multi-beam launch in 2020, if you could give us an idea for what that might mean for revenue or ASP opportunity next year.

好的。是的，這很合理。那麼在 e-beam 方面，想請問你們是否預期 2020 年多束（multi-beam）推出會帶來成長率的變化？如果可以的話，能否讓我們了解這對明年營收或 ASP 機會可能意味著什麼？

Yes. I think the most important part is here to make sure that our lead system lens by the end of the year, and that is what we're still planning. And then because it's a new technology, to give you a detailed outlook on growth rates for 2020 for this technology is a bit too early, because it also very much depends on how the technology being used and on the application space.

是的。我認為最重要的是，確保我們的主系統鏡頭在年底前到位，而這仍是我們的計畫。另外，因為這是一項新技術，要對 2020 年這項技術的成長率給出很細的展望還太早，因為這也很大程度取決於該技術如何被使用以及應用領域。

So for us, the most important part of e-beam is to get the node to beam out, yes, get the node to beam out and to have the first qualifications done with our customers. And based on that, we'll be, by the end of the year or early next year, in much better position to guide you on growth rates and market expectations.

因此，對我們而言，e-beam 最重要的是把節點到 beam 的部分推出，是的，把節點到 beam 的部分推出，並完成與客戶的首批認證。基於此，我們在年底或明年初將能更有把握地就成長率與市場預期向各位提供指引。

Our next question is from Mr. Mehdi Hosseini.

下一個問題來自 Mehdi Hosseini 先生。

It's Mehdi Hosseini from Susquehanna International. Peter, I want to go back your comment from January earning conference call. You said you expect up to 13 EUV system, 3400C, but you were still not really clear of those systems, how many would be an upgrade from B to C. Is there an update here? And I have a follow-up.

我是 Susquehanna International 的 Mehdi Hosseini。Peter，我想回到你在 1 月財報電話會議中的評論。你說你預期最多 13 台 EUV 系統 3400C，但你當時對於這些系統中有多少會是從 B 升級到 C 並不十分清楚。這方面有更新嗎？我還有一個追問。

Yes. The full Cs are actually less, I mean, if you have a kind of intermediate version. So the full Cs is probably around 5, yes, and so the rest is an intermediate version that will be upgraded later on. So that was a bit of a confusion. That has to do with the fact that not all modules are fully ready when we start shipping the first C with the improved lens and there are other features to that C system that come later. So the -- that is the upgrade in the C version, which is relatively minor.

是的。完整的 C 其實比較少，我是說，因為我們有一種中間版本。所以完整的 C 大概在 5 台左右，是的，其餘的是中間版本，之後會再升級。所以之前有點混淆。這與我們開始出貨第一台配備改良鏡頭的 C 時，並非所有模組都已完全就緒有關，而 C 系統的其他功能會在之後才到位。所以——那就是 C 版本的升級，幅度相對較小。

But the upgrades you're probably referring to, from the B to the C, and this is where we don't think there will be a lot of upgrades for the simple reason that the B is a lower productivity tool with a lower price. And if you want to go to the C version, you really need to have the new optical path there, which actually doesn't [advise]. It's possible, but and then you have to have such a major upgrade in the field that it's questionable whether it's economical for customers to take the tool down for such a long time and then pay such a high price for the upgrades.

但你可能指的是從 B 升級到 C 的升級，而在這方面我們認為不會有很多升級，原因很簡單：B 是生產力較低、價格也較低的工具。如果要升級到 C 版本，你確實需要新的光學路徑，而那其實不太[建議]。技術上可行，但你必須在現場做非常重大的升級，客戶是否願意讓設備停機那麼久，並為升級支付那麼高的費用，從經濟性角度看就值得懷疑。

So I think the Bs will remain the Bs and the Cs -- the real Cs, the final [N] Cs are probably a handful, yes? And there is then this version that is going to be shipped at least with the right lens and with some other modules later on. So those are small upgrades, which are part of the purchase price.

所以我認為 B 會維持為 B，而 C——真正的 C、最終的 [N] C 可能只有少數幾台，是嗎？然後還有一個版本會出貨，至少會配備正確的鏡頭，其他一些模組則在之後再補上。因此那些是小幅升級，已包含在購買價格之內。

And then -- and rather, a quick follow-up. I estimate the installed base of all EUV systems out there this year to be around 60. And obviously, some of these systems are for R&D and some of them are older generations. So let's say 60%, 70% of the 60 units could potentially be upgraded. I mean, you just referenced the economic challenges for upgrading, but then again, I can't ignore the fact that there is a large installed base.

然後——再快速追問一下。我估計今年在外部已安裝的所有 EUV 系統約為 60 台。而且顯然其中一些用於研發，一些是較舊世代。所以假設這 60 台中的 60%、70% 可能具備升級潛力。你剛才提到升級的經濟性挑戰，但另一方面，我也不能忽視有一個很大的已安裝基礎。

And in that context, how should I think about the tools that are already being paid for and some of them maybe halfway through depreciation versus benefit of purchasing an outright C version?

在這個背景下，對於那些已經付清、其中一些可能折舊已過半的工具，相較於直接購買一台 C 版本所帶來的效益，我應該如何看待？

Yes. I think it's not 60. It's just below 50, those in the field. But you have to realize that the number of those tools are 3300s, 3350s, and some of them -- and most of those tools are being used in the qualification in the R&D space, yes? So we are -- you are right, some of them actually they are entering into their last term of depreciation.

是的。我認為不是 60 台。在現場的數量略低於 50 台。但你必須了解，這些工具中有 3300、3350 等型號，而且其中一些——其實大多數工具用於研發領域的認證，是的。所以我們——你說得對，其中一些確實正進入折舊的最後階段。

Now -- so some [wafers] be used also in the R&D space and will not be upgraded. And also, it's like the 3400Bs, they are, yes, lower productivity tools but also lower-priced tools, but are perfectly capable production tools, and those will stay in production. And that's nothing different than what we did in the past when we had NXT versions, yes, where basically you have a 1950 followed by a 1960 and a 1970. Yes, some of them can be upgraded, but as I've said earlier, the upgradability of the 3400B is there, but it's very expensive and you could argue whether it's economical. So I don't expect it there.

現在——所以有些[晶圓]也會用在研發領域，並不會升級。另外，像 3400B，它們是生產力較低但價格也較低的工具，但完全具備量產能力，並且會繼續留在量產中。這與我們過去在 NXT 版本上的做法沒有不同，是的，基本上就是 1950 之後有 1960、1970。是的，其中一些可以升級，但如我先前所說，3400B 的可升級性是存在的，但成本非常高，你可以爭論其是否具經濟性。所以我不預期會有。

On the 3300s, not the 34, the 3300s, I see limited upgrade possibilities, but many of those tools will stay in an R&D space. And some of them we can negotiate with the customers to take some of them back and refurbish them here in the factory, and those are the kind of the plans that we are developing with our customers today, just to make sure that they have a efficient use of their assets.

至於 3300，不是 34，是 3300，我看到的升級可能性有限，但其中許多工具會留在研發領域。而且我們可以與客戶協商，把其中一些回收，並在工廠進行翻新；這類計畫我們目前正與客戶一起制定，以確保他們能有效運用其資產。

And then those are programs that will probably run over the next couple of years, yes, to make sure that we can help our customers get the maximum amount of their installed base, which is, by that time, fully depreciated. And it will be kind of a trade-in and upgrade program, but that -- those details still need to be worked out.

然後這些方案可能會在未來幾年推行，是的，以確保我們能協助客戶從其已安裝基礎中取得最大效益，而到那時這些設備將已完全折舊。這將有點像以舊換新與升級方案，但——相關細節仍需要進一步敲定。

Our next question is from Mr. Mitchell Steves.

下一個問題來自 Mitchell Steves 先生。

Mitch Steves from RBC. So I really have 2. The first one is kind of on a gross margin side. So you guys saw a better shipment in EUV and you guys are talking about better EUV profitability, but then you're kind of guiding to similar gross margins for next quarter. So I'm trying to understand why you're not seeing any scale from the extra EUR 300 million sequentially.

我是 RBC 的 Mitch Steves。我其實有兩個問題。第一個是關於毛利率。你們看到 EUV 出貨更好，也在談 EUV 獲利能力改善，但你們對下季的指引卻是類似的毛利率。所以我想了解，為什麼在單季增加 3 億歐元的規模之下，你們沒有看到任何規模效益？

So it's a -- so the gross margin from Q1 into Q2 is a bit of a blend. So as you rightly said, we'll have more EUV shipments. And as you know with the 3400B, that means that the gross margin, for that reason, would go down. It will be compensated by the Deep UV business and will also be compensated by the fact that we do have better installed base revenue with some field upgrades in there into second quarter.

所以，這是——所以從第一季到第二季的毛利率會有點混合。所以如你所說，我們會有更多的 EUV 出貨。而且如你所知，搭配 3400B，這代表毛利率基於這個原因會下降。這會由深紫外（Deep UV）業務來補償，也會由我們確實有較好的裝機基礎（installed base）營收、其中包含一些第二季的現場升級（field upgrades）來補償。

So if you take the negative from more EUV shipments, that gets compensated by the other 2 developments. And that gets you, as we already said, by the way, on our call after Q4, that gets you to essentially the same gross margin in Q2 as you have in Q1.

所以如果你把更多 EUV 出貨帶來的負面影響納入考量，會被另外兩項發展所抵銷。而這也會讓你——順帶一提，正如我們在第四季後的電話會議上已經說過的——基本上第二季的毛利率會與第一季大致相同。

Got it. And then secondly, you guys have a pretty large target in terms of 50% out there for gross margin. So when do we see that step function in terms of the gross margins? Is that driven by the type of EUV shipments you're going to have? Or is that driven by mix? So just how do we get to kind of a step function from 41% to, call it, the high 40s going forward?

了解。然後第二點，你們對毛利率有一個相當高的目標，也就是 50%。那麼我們何時會看到毛利率的階梯式提升（step function）？這是由你們將出貨的 EUV 機型所驅動嗎？還是由產品組合（mix）所驅動？也就是說，我們要如何從 41% 走到、比如說，未來的高 40% 這種階梯式提升？

You're on a roll there. So you absolutely mentioned 2 very, very important elements in there. So indeed, it is the introduction of the 3400C model, which is -- which as we said is going to start in Q3, and that will be a significant uptick in our gross margin. So that's one big component.

你問得很順。你確實提到了兩個非常、非常重要的要素。所以的確，是 3400C 機型的導入——正如我們所說，將在第三季開始——而這將使我們的毛利率顯著上升。這是一個主要組成部分。

The second component, indeed, is mix, which is also envisaged for the second half of the mix in the Deep UV business more towards -- even more towards immersion. A very significant part that we talked about quite extensively also on the call last time is installed base revenue and then, in particular, the EUV service cost and service revenue. So we're working very hard, as you know, at this stage to get our customers and help our customers and go to high-volume manufacturing.

第二個組成部分，確實是產品組合（mix），也就是在下半年，深紫外（Deep UV）業務的組合會更偏向——甚至更偏向浸潤式（immersion）。我們上次電話會議也相當深入談到的一個非常重要部分是裝機基礎（installed base）營收，特別是 EUV 的服務成本與服務營收。所以如你所知，我們目前正非常努力地與客戶合作、協助客戶導入到高量產（high-volume manufacturing）。

So there's a lot of costs that we incur as a result right now, whereas the revenue is very limited, because as you probably know, most of the revenue and service is tied to wafer output, which, of course, at this stage, it's very, very low. So there's a big mismatch at this stage between the cost and the revenue. That will obviously remedy itself in the second half and then significantly into 2020 and beyond.

因此，我們目前因此承擔了很多成本，但營收非常有限，因為如你可能知道，大部分服務營收與服務是與晶圓產出（wafer output）綁定的，而當然在這個階段產出非常、非常低。所以目前成本與營收之間存在很大的不匹配。這在下半年會明顯改善，並且在 2020 年及之後會更顯著。

So those are the key drivers. And then we have factory loading to the extent that the business goes up and some other components in installed base, base revenue, including field upgrades.

所以這些是關鍵驅動因素。另外還有工廠負載（factory loading），在業務成長的情況下，以及裝機基礎（installed base）中的其他組成部分、基礎營收（base revenue），包括現場升級（field upgrades）。

So those are the main levers that we're pulling in order to, indeed, get to the over 50% that we've guided for 2020. And we believe we're on track. So the step change, you will see significant elements of that step change in the course of the second sales -- second half.

所以這些是我們為了達成——確實——我們對 2020 年所指引的超過 50% 毛利率而採取的主要槓桿。我們相信我們正按計畫推進。因此，這個階梯式變化，你會在下半年期間看到其中相當顯著的部分。

Our next question is from Mr. Stephane Houri.

下一個問題來自 Stephane Houri 先生。

This is Stephane Houri from ODDO. I have a question again on the services because you've said that services will jump in Q2 to EUR 700 million. So just to understand the dynamic, I thought that services recovery would've come with EUV services revenue in Q3 and Q4. So what services are driving the growth in Q2? And basically, are you -- will you be significantly above the EUR 700 million level quarter in Q3-Q4?

我是 ODDO 的 Stephane Houri。我想再問一個關於服務的問題，因為你們說第二季服務將跳升到 7 億歐元。所以為了理解其動態，我原本以為服務的復甦會隨著第三季與第四季的 EUV 服務營收而出現。那麼第二季是哪些服務在推動成長？基本上，你們在第三季到第四季是否會顯著高於每季 7 億歐元的水準？

So the main driver of getting it from the Q1 number to the Q2 number is not related to the EUV. That is -- that would include field upgrades. So that's an important driver where we had a limited number of that in Q1, as we also indicated, which is also a -- was also a function of the supplier situation that we talked about last time. So field upgrades is one significant -- one important driver of the higher number in Q2.

所以，從第一季數字到第二季數字的主要驅動因素與 EUV 無關。那會——包含現場升級（field upgrades）。這是一個重要驅動因素，因為第一季這類項目數量有限，正如我們也指出的，這同時也——也與我們上次談到的供應商狀況有關。所以現場升級是第二季較高數字的一個顯著——一個重要驅動因素。

In the second half, the second half, we expect installed base revenue to be higher than in the first half. As you said, we're still looking at single-digit growth for installed base revenue. So if you can do the math of the first half and the second half, you would see that there is about a 20%, 25% increase that you would have to have over the first half into the second half to get to that number.

在下半年，我們預期裝機基礎（installed base）營收會高於上半年。如你所說，我們仍然預期裝機基礎營收是個位數成長。所以如果你把上半年與下半年做一下數學，你會看到，為了達到那個數字，下半年相對於上半年大約需要有 20% 到 25% 的增幅。

Okay. Maybe a quick follow-up on the price of EUV tools. There has been a fall, significant fall if -- I might correct, in Q1 versus Q4. Is there any reason for that? And where do you see the EUV average price going, given the introduction of the 3300C?

好的。也許快速追問一下 EUV 設備的價格。第一季相較第四季出現了下滑，若我可以更正的話，是顯著下滑。這有什麼原因嗎？而在導入 3300C 的情況下，你們如何看待 EUV 平均售價（average price）的走勢？

So if you compare the -- I guess what you say is you compare Q4 '18 to the Q1, the Q1 '19 number, right, and then the average, yes, I mean the average pricing of all of our machines, including the EUV machines, is obvious to -- obviously, to a large extent, contingent upon the configuration of the machine and also the mix, what customers will it -- let's say, will it go to, what's decide on the customer, et cetera. So there's a number of drivers there. And sometimes, that's a little higher than the average sales price of 100 that we've -- that you typically work with, and sometimes, it's a little bit lower.

所以如果你比較——我猜你說的是比較 2018 年第四季與 2019 年第一季的數字，對吧——然後平均值，是的，我的意思是，我們所有機台（包括 EUV 機台）的平均定價，顯然——在很大程度上——取決於機台的配置，以及產品組合：會交付給哪些客戶、客戶決定了什麼等等。所以那裡有很多驅動因素。而有時候，這會略高於你通常採用的 100 的平均售價（ASP），有時候則會略低。

As it relates to the introduction of the 3400C, I think we've been very clear there. We're looking at a more than 35% -- we're looking at 35% increase in the throughput in terms of wafer -- wafers per hour, and that's, we've always said, translates into an ASP increase from the B to the C model.

至於 3400C 的導入，我想我們已經說得很清楚。我們看到吞吐量將提升超過 35%——也就是每小時晶圓數（wafers per hour）提升 35%，而我們一直說，這會轉化為從 B 機型到 C 機型的 ASP 提升。

Our next question is from Amit Harchandani.

下一個問題來自 Amit Harchandani。

Amit Harchandani from Citi. I would like to maybe get your thought with respect to EUV orders and shipments going into 2020. As you alluded to earlier for 2019, your shipment plan look fairly secure in terms of customer commitments.

我是花旗（Citi）的 Amit Harchandani。我想請教你們對 2020 年 EUV 訂單與出貨的看法。如你們先前提到的，就 2019 年而言，你們的出貨計畫在客戶承諾方面看起來相當穩固。

But as we look towards 2020 and we look at some of the recent order flow around EUV, how are you thinking -- what's your confidence level with respect to hitting the 33 to 35 that you have referenced earlier? Do you need to demonstrate more improvement to your customers? Are there -- is there -- do the customers have to come through -- I guess I'm just trying to get comfort in terms of when do we start seeing the EUV orders per quarter tracking close with the shipment level that's expected for next year?

但當我們展望 2020 年，並觀察近期 EUV 的接單流量，你們怎麼思考——你們對達成先前提到的 33 到 35 台的信心程度如何？你們是否需要向客戶展現更多改善？是否——客戶是否必須——我想我只是想獲得一些把握：我們何時會開始看到每季 EUV 訂單數，與明年預期的出貨水準更接近地追蹤？

Yes. Two things here. One is it is -- these orders come in choppy. There's only a few customers there. So it means that it's not a whole bunch of customers. We get onesies and twosies to come in these batches. So that's what you have, one.

是的。這裡有兩點。第一是——這些訂單進來會比較不平順（choppy）。因為那裡只有少數幾個客戶。所以這代表不是一大堆客戶。我們會以一台、兩台這樣零星地、分批地進來。所以第一點就是這樣。

And it's about the same as we were last year. Last year, first quarter 2018, same thing, where we include the orders come from for 2019 this year, the 30 units. This was the same question, same situation, choppy. But we said at that time, before the end of 2018, we have all the orders for 2019. I think it's the same situation now.

而且這大致上與我們去年相同。去年，也就是2018年第一季，同樣的情況，我們把今年2019年的訂單來源也納入考量，也就是那30台。這是同樣的問題、同樣的情境，起伏不定。但我們當時說，在2018年底之前，我們已經拿到2019年的所有訂單。我認為現在也是同樣的情況。

I mean, when we look at 33 systems, we look at -- and I relate back to an earlier question, where is the demand come from? It comes from the logic transition, 7 plus, 6 nanometer, 5 nanometer for 3 customers, the potential for DRAM that we talked about in a moderate market scenario. Those are the discussion that we're having with our customers and gives us the confidence that we're preparing for these 33 unit numbers. And we will have those orders by the end of the year to fulfill 2020 like we did last year.

我的意思是，當我們看33套系統時，我們會看——我回到先前的一個問題：需求從哪裡來？它來自邏輯製程轉換，7+、6奈米、5奈米，針對3家客戶，以及我們在溫和市場情境下談到的DRAM潛在需求。這些就是我們與客戶正在進行的討論，並讓我們有信心為這33台的數字做準備。而且我們會像去年一樣，在年底前拿到那些訂單，以滿足2020年的出貨。

On top of that, we are reducing our order lead time to our customers. I mean, when we're in this phase where our customers need to order 2 years in advance, with a semiconductor industry that's quite choppy, they don't like 2 years. Those were actually agreed with them that we're going down to 18 months and 15 months and, ultimately, one hand, at the 12-month lead time for EUV systems. That gives them some more flexibility to better plan.

除此之外，我們也在縮短對客戶的訂單前置期。我的意思是，當我們處於這個階段、客戶需要提前2年下單時，而半導體產業又相當起伏不定，他們不喜歡2年。我們其實已與他們達成共識，將前置期降到18個月與15個月，最終——一方面——把EUV系統的前置期降到12個月。這讓他們有更多彈性、能更好地規劃。

Well, part of that, you're already seeing. So with that planned lead time reduction, our customers will take that into account in placing the orders that are going to be choppy. And that will fill the order book to make sure that by the end of this year, we'll have the units there for 2020 shipments.

嗯，其中一部分你們已經看到了。因此，隨著這項計畫性的前置期縮短，我們的客戶在下單時會把這點納入考量，而訂單會呈現起伏。而這將填補訂單簿，確保到今年年底，我們會有足夠的台數用於2020年的出貨。

And as a follow-up, if I may. Could you maybe give us a quick update on the business momentum out of indigenous Chinese customers across the different end markets? Have you seen any changes versus previous quarters? Any further updates from your side would be helpful.

另外，如果我可以追問。你能否就來自中國本土客戶、跨不同終端市場的業務動能，給我們一個快速更新？相較於前幾季，你們是否看到任何變化？你們這邊若有進一步更新會很有幫助。

Yes. I think as I said in my introductory comments, these -- especially in the memory space, these investments are of a strategic nature because their greenfield companies have greenfield fabs. And the first qualification rounds of the devices that they're making have -- they actually have -- they are behind us. So actually, they are looking at ramping their first lines, and this is what we're -- that's what they're doing this year. So that will happen. So I think that -- we don't see any change there.

是的。我想如同我在開場評論中所說，這些——特別是在記憶體領域——投資具有策略性，因為這些綠地公司擁有綠地晶圓廠。而他們所製造裝置的第一輪認證——其實——已經在我們這邊完成了。所以實際上，他們正在尋求把第一條產線拉升產能，而這就是我們——也就是他們今年正在做的事。所以這會發生。因此我認為——我們沒有看到那裡有任何變化。

And I think the same is true for some of our indigenous Logic customers. They have technology transitions ongoing to either 28 or 14 nanometer, which is strategic and that happens, albeit at a somewhat lower level. I think in China we see memory quite significant volume and logic is more modest. But all those plans are stay on track.

我想對我們一些中國本土邏輯客戶也是如此。他們正在進行技術轉換，往28或14奈米，這是策略性的，而且會發生，只是規模稍微低一些。我想在中國，我們看到記憶體的量相當可觀，而邏輯則較為溫和。但所有這些計畫都仍按軌道進行。

Our next question is from Ms. Tammy Qiu.

我們的下一個問題來自Tammy Qiu女士。

So firstly, I have noticed that R&D has been -- keep increasing since last year. Understand that last year you've started accelerating your R&D for the High-NA generation tools. So I'm just wondering that -- is 2019 another up year for R&D compared to 2018 and of course, the year before? Or are we actually seeing some time H1 2019 will be top of the R&D cycle?

首先，我注意到研發自去年以來一直——持續增加。我理解去年你們已開始加速針對High-NA世代工具的研發。所以我想請問——2019年的研發相較於2018年以及再前一年，是否會是另一個上升年度？或者我們其實會看到2019年上半年會是研發週期的高點？

And also secondly, after 2020, in theory, if you have done all the R&D and all the preparation for High-NA launch, your free cash flow should increasing significantly. So what's your view in terms of your future capital return program?

第二點，理論上在2020年之後，如果你們已完成所有High-NA上市所需的研發與準備，你們的自由現金流應該會顯著增加。那麼你們對未來資本回饋計畫的看法是什麼？

So in terms of the R&D, we're looking at about EUR 1.9 billion R&D for the year. And that's what we've communicated, and I think we're on track. I think the number that you've seen for Q1 is very consistent with that number. And indeed, we said that there's a number of reasons why we're doing that. One is in the continued preparation for High-NA, pulling in of the 3400C development and also, for instance, around the development of multi-beams. So there are distinct programs that underpin that.

就研發而言，我們今年的研發預計約為19億歐元。這是我們已對外溝通的，我想我們正按計畫進行。我認為你們在第一季看到的數字與該目標非常一致。而且確實，我們也說過這麼做有幾個原因。其中之一是持續為High-NA做準備、提前推進3400C的開發，另外例如也包括多束（multi-beams）的開發。因此有一些明確的計畫在支撐這些投入。

We've also said that we believe that in the course of 2020, we will see that we're gradually navigating that back to the longer-term 14% number that we've indicated. So you will still see a higher percentage for 2020. But in the course of 2020, you will see us navigating back to that 14% longer-term number.

我們也說過，我們相信在2020年的過程中，我們會看到我們逐步把這個比例導回我們所指出的長期14%水準。所以你在2020年仍會看到較高的百分比。但在2020年的過程中，你會看到我們逐步回到那個長期14%的水準。

I don't want to spoil the party, but we shouldn't expect that the R&D work on High-NA comes to a grinding halt by 2020. Obviously, that will continue to be there, and a significant part of the R&D work in 2021 and beyond will still obviously be related to High-NA.

我不想掃興，但我們不應該預期High-NA的研發工作會在2020年戛然而止。顯然，那仍會持續存在，而且2021年及之後相當一部分的研發工作，顯然仍會與High-NA相關。

But you are right, there will be a significant generation of free cash flow. And I think we've been fairly clear on that during Capital Markets Day, where we said, first off, we're going to make all those investments that we deem necessary for the continuation of the business as we run it today, which is primarily R&D, and that's the number we just talked about. We said on the M&A front that it's unlikely that there will be targets both available and attractive for us, such that there would be a significant expenditure on that front.

但你說得對，自由現金流將會顯著產生。我想我們在資本市場日已相當清楚地說明：首先，我們會進行所有我們認為對延續目前營運模式所必需的投資，主要是研發，也就是我們剛談到的那個數字。我們也提到在併購（M&A）方面，不太可能同時存在對我們而言既可取得又具吸引力的標的，因此在那方面不太會有重大支出。

We will sustain our cash balances, as we've indicated. And anything that is available over and above that, we said we'll return to our shareholders. And we'll do that in a policy of increasing dividends. And I think the dividend proposal that we've given for this year, I think, is testimony to that. And anything else that we have available, we'll return in -- by way of the share buyback programs as you've seen we execute on -- in quite a disciplined way.

我們會如同所指出的，維持我們的現金餘額。而任何在此之上可動用的資金，我們說過會回饋給股東。我們會以提高股利的政策來進行。我想我們今年提出的股利提案，就是對此的證明。而任何我們另外可動用的資金，我們會透過——如你們所見——以相當有紀律的方式執行的庫藏股回購計畫來回饋。

Our next question is from Mr. Pierre Ferragu.

我們的下一個問題來自Pierre Ferragu先生。

Peter, I was wondering if you have any perspective on how things are happening in terms of the clients, of your clients in Logic added things to nodes in which EUV is ran. So there are some reports that the 7 plus nodes might be not as popular and successful as initially anticipated and maybe the 5-nanometer node would end up being the bigger one and the 7 plus the smaller one. So my first question is do you have any visibility and perspective on that?

Peter，我想請教你是否能分享一些觀點：就你們的邏輯客戶而言，他們在導入EUV運行的節點時，進展情況如何？有一些報導指出，7+節點可能不像最初預期那樣受歡迎、也不那麼成功，而5奈米節點最終可能會成為更大的節點，7+則較小。所以我的第一個問題是，你對此是否有任何能見度與看法？

And my second question is, if that were the case, does that impact in any way the cadence at which you're going to deliver your tools? Or would that be actually less impacting it?

我的第二個問題是，如果真是如此，這是否會以任何方式影響你們交付設備的節奏？或者實際上影響會更小？

Yes. Pierre, I think to answer your last question, I don't think it has an impact on the cadence. What you will see is there's going to be more nodes and half nodes and quarter nodes that people are using for different purposes, a different device for different end markets and different applications. I mean, it was clear some of our largest customers in the Logic space have indeed announced nodes that they call 7 plus, 6, 5, 3 for different types of customers.

是的。Pierre，我想回答你最後一個問題，我不認為這會對節奏（cadence）造成影響。你會看到的是，將會有更多節點、半節點以及四分之一節點，人們會基於不同目的來使用——針對不同終端市場與不同應用，採用不同的製程節點。我的意思是，很明顯我們在邏輯（Logic）領域的一些最大客戶，確實已宣布他們所稱的 7 plus、6、5、3 等節點，用於不同類型的客戶。

But more importantly, I think when you talk to our customers, they actually say, and especially in the foundry space, that the number of tape-outs for those devices are very significant. And I think you will see a more heterogeneous supply of those nodes for different application and different customers. So -- but when we add it all up, it is the most important. And we see what we think the EUV demand will be next year and years thereafter. There's no reason why we change our -- let's say, our moderate market view for next year. It all fits. But you will see a more heterogeneous and, thereby, perhaps for you guys, a less transparent node-to-node transition. It's getting a bit more complicated.

但更重要的是，我認為當你與我們的客戶交談時，他們其實會說——尤其是在晶圓代工（foundry）領域——這些裝置的 tape-out 數量非常可觀。而我認為你將會看到，針對不同應用與不同客戶，這些節點的供給會更加異質化。所以——但當我們把所有因素加總起來，這才是最重要的。而我們也看到我們所預期的明年以及往後幾年的 EUV 需求。沒有理由讓我們改變——比方說——我們對明年的溫和市場觀點。一切都吻合。但你會看到更異質化，因此也許對各位而言，節點到節點的轉換會變得較不透明。事情變得更複雜了一些。

Your next question is from Mr. Andrew Gardiner.

下一個問題來自 Andrew Gardiner 先生。

Barclays. Just another one on the memory space, perhaps slightly more near term. With the fourth quarter results, I suppose with third quarter results before as well, you had talked about pushouts from certain customers. I'm just wondering -- I mean clearly, you're keeping the full year guidance the same in terms of the down 20 for memory overall and down 30 as you described for the underlying business.

巴克萊（Barclays）。再問一個關於記憶體領域的問題，可能偏向更短期一些。在第四季的結果上——我想第三季結果時你們也提過——你們談到某些客戶的延後（pushouts）。我只是想確認一下——我的意思是很明顯，你們仍維持全年指引不變：記憶體整體下滑 20%，以及如你所描述的基礎業務下滑 30%。

But just within that, as the customers are trying to find the bottom in the cycle and return to supply-demand equilibrium, have you seen any further pushouts at least from perhaps quarter-to-quarter basis within the year? Or have things been fairly steady for the last couple of months?

但在這之中，當客戶試圖在循環中尋找底部並回到供需均衡時，你們是否看到至少在年度內、以季度對季度的角度來看，還有進一步的延後？還是說過去幾個月情況相當穩定？

I would say they have been pretty steady, Andrew. Like I said also earlier in my earlier comments, there is always the fact that we're in this digestion or this supply-demand balancing phase. There's always a question of how long will it last. And it's going to be basically a function of the bit demand for the end markets, which for DRAM, I think our latest outside analysts -- when we think about Gartner or these guys, for DRAM, hover around to 20% and for 3D NAND between 30% and 35%.

我會說相當穩定，Andrew。就像我先前在評論中也提到的，總是存在我們正處於消化期或供需再平衡階段這個事實。也總是會有一個問題：這會持續多久。而這基本上將取決於終端市場的 bit 需求；以 DRAM 來說，我想我們最新看到的外部分析師——例如 Gartner 或其他機構——對 DRAM 的預估大約在 20% 左右，而 3D NAND 則在 30% 到 35% 之間。

If you follow that then, and we just stick to what our customers says and say, well, you could see a rebound in their business throughout this year. And that's basically because the first thing they're going to do, like I said earlier, they've reduced their utilization, which is pretty unique for us. I mean we haven't seen that in earlier cycles to this extent, and they will first reuse that. So they will see their business pick up, of course, earlier.

如果你依此來看，而我們也只是依照客戶所說的，那麼你可能會看到他們的業務在今年逐步反彈。這基本上是因為他們首先會做的事——就像我先前說的——是他們已降低產能利用率，這對我們而言相當罕見。我的意思是，在先前的循環中我們沒有看到這種程度的降載，而他們會先把這部分重新利用起來。因此他們的業務當然會更早回升。

So there are no signs that at this moment, in any case, that they're going to have another round of reductions. I think what they're doing is they're just trying to get the supply-demand balance in order as soon as possible by -- through their own actions. It's basically controlling the utilization, yes, and that's good. So maybe that's the reason why they feel, based on things on the 20% bit growth in DRAM and 30% to 35% in 3D NAND, that they believe -- that is why -- that somewhere in the course of this year, they'll see a rebound in their business. That could very well be.

所以目前沒有任何跡象顯示——至少在此刻——他們會再進行一輪削減。我認為他們正在做的，是透過自身的行動，盡快把供需平衡調整到位。基本上就是控制產能利用率，是的，而這是好的。所以也許這就是他們為什麼會覺得——基於 DRAM 20% 的 bit 成長，以及 3D NAND 30% 到 35% 的成長——他們相信——也就是為什麼——在今年某個時點，他們會看到業務反彈。這很有可能。

So no, no further adjustments that we've seen. Of course, there is absolutely no security or certainty with these comments because nobody can really predict where the end markets are going. But at this moment, no change.

所以沒有，我們沒有看到進一步的調整。當然，這些評論絕對沒有任何保障或確定性，因為沒有人能真正預測終端市場會走向何方。但就目前而言，沒有變化。

Our next question is from Mr. Adithya Metuku.

下一個問題來自 Adithya Metuku 先生。

All my questions have been answered. But just a quick clarification from Roger maybe, just on the CapEx. I noticed Q1 was pretty high in terms of CapEx, the proportion of sales. How should we think about CapEx for the full year? Is it going to be in line with your 2020 targets? So is it -- and should we expect something different this year?

我的問題都已經被回答了。不過想請 Roger 簡單澄清一下，關於資本支出（CapEx）。我注意到第一季的 CapEx 相對於銷售額的比例相當高。我們應該如何看待全年 CapEx？會與你們 2020 年的目標一致嗎？也就是說——今年是否應該預期會有不同？

CapEx this year will be fairly high. It will be higher than the typical run rate that we see on a long-term basis, but that's the nature of CapEx, right? It's CapEx. CapEx is -- it's not a smooth line. So this year will be fairly high in CapEx because we have quite some development preparation that we're doing for High-NA, for instance. So that's why CapEx is fairly high this year.

今年的 CapEx 會相當高。它會高於我們長期所看到的典型常態水準，但這就是 CapEx 的本質，對吧？這是資本支出。CapEx——它不是一條平滑的線。所以今年 CapEx 會相當高，因為我們正在為 High-NA 等項目做不少研發準備。因此今年 CapEx 會比較高。

But longer term, the guidance that we've given for 2020-2025, that percentage of 4% is still the right percentage to look at. But it will vary over the years, up and under, and this year, it will be higher.

但從更長期來看，我們對 2020-2025 所給出的指引中，那個 4% 的比例仍然是正確的參考值。不過它會在各年度之間上下波動，而今年會更高。

So if I were to annualize the Q1 number, would that be a fair representation or too excessive?

所以如果我把第一季的數字年化，這會是合理的代表值，還是會太高？

I think that would not be excessive. I think that is a reasonable number to go by.

我認為那不會太高。我認為那是一個可以採用的合理數字。

Our next question is from Mr. David Mulholland.

下一個問題來自 David Mulholland 先生。

It's David from UBS. Just one quick question on the kind of pace of node introductions. I think you touched on it briefly. But we're normally having this discussion in terms of whether the cadence might slow. And overnight, it was -- TSMC has been talking about introducing a 6-nanometer node and seemingly moving to annual node introductions. I just wonder if you could comment on what you think that might mean for your Logic business going forward, whether it becomes a bit more stable and less lumpy or doesn't change it that much.

我是 UBS 的 David。關於製程節點導入的節奏，我有一個簡短問題。我想你剛才稍微提到了一點。但我們通常討論的是節奏是否可能放緩。而昨晚——TSMC 一直在談導入 6 奈米節點，並且看起來正轉向每年導入新節點。我想請你評論一下，你認為這對你們未來的邏輯業務意味著什麼：是否會變得更穩定、波動更小，還是其實變化不大。

And then just as a quick follow-up, we've commented on a little bit, but given the messaging around the 3400C, is it fair to assume that the next kind of sway to the EUV bookings for 2020 is likely to be quite back-end loaded this year?

另外再追問一個，我們也稍微評論過，但考量到關於 3400C 的訊息傳達，是否可以合理假設 2020 年 EUV 訂單的下一波動能，可能會在今年下半年比較集中？

Okay. Yes, that could very well be. I mean I do expect that to be also, also given the reduced lead time. So that the -- it's more back-end loaded. But on the -- so yes.

好的。是的，那很有可能。我的意思是，我確實預期會是那樣，尤其也考量到交期縮短。所以——會更偏向下半年集中。但就——所以是的。

And your first question, yes, the impact of this cadence change, like I said earlier, I think it's a bit more heterogeneous and it's more -- it's less transparent what that means. I also think customers are going to make -- customers of customers are probably going to make more application-specific choices of what they want to use with that particular application because it's not a full node. This is a half node. You can even say quarter nodes, yes? That makes it less transparent and also for us.

至於你的第一個問題，是的，這種節奏變化的影響，如我先前所說，我認為會更異質化，而且更——也更不透明其意涵為何。我也認為客戶的客戶可能會針對特定應用，做出更多應用導向的選擇，決定在該應用上要使用什麼，因為這不是完整的一個節點。這是一個半節點。你甚至可以說是四分之一節點，對吧？這讓它更不透明，對我們而言也是如此。

But we do enter discussion with our customers. We talk -- do talk about those nodes that require EUV because that's where the question is, how much EUV would they need. And in that discussion, we will just look at -- we have to look at this blend of EUV applications and the number of wafers that you would need per node. We would need to get to some kind of equilibrium almost to assess how much EUV we would need.

但我們確實會與客戶進行討論。我們會談——確實會談到那些需要EUV的節點，因為問題就在於他們需要多少EUV。在那樣的討論中，我們會去看——我們必須看EUV應用的組合，以及每個節點所需的晶圓數量。我們需要達到某種近似的平衡，才能評估我們需要多少EUV。

But everything we've heard until now with all those node changes, we do believe that what we have in our moderate market scenario for 2020 is the right number. So -- but yes, you are right. I mean it's just starting, and we don't have the full transparency on this. We'll have to figure this out as we go with our customers.

但就我們目前聽到的所有情況而言，伴隨著那些節點變更，我們確實相信我們在2020年溫和市場情境中所採用的數字是正確的。所以——但沒錯，你說得對。我的意思是，這才剛開始，我們對此還沒有完全透明的資訊。我們必須在與客戶合作推進的過程中逐步釐清。

Our next question is from Mr. Robert Sanders.

下一個問題來自Robert Sanders先生。

It's Deutsche Bank. First question, just on your U.S. Logic customer, I was just wondering if you're assuming that they will roll out 10 nanometer across their 3 mega sites? Or do you think they're actually sort of revisiting what they're doing there? Because I guess it's an important assumption, given what you're seeing in their terms of DUV spend in 2019.

這裡是德意志銀行。第一個問題，關於你們的美國邏輯客戶，我想請問你們是否假設他們會在其3個大型廠區全面導入10奈米？還是你認為他們其實正在重新檢視他們在那裡的做法？因為我想，考量到你們看到他們在2019年的DUV支出，這是一個重要的假設。

And the second question was just one for Roger, just on the buyback. I noticed it slowed down a lot, but clearly, you've raised the dividends. So is that just a general philosophy now to prioritize dividends over buybacks?

第二個問題是問Roger的，關於庫藏股回購。我注意到回購速度放慢了很多，但顯然你們提高了股利。所以這是否代表現在整體理念是優先發放股利而非回購？

Okay. Well, Robert, as you know, I mean we're -- on the U.S. Logic side, there's not many choices. So we're going to -- cannot be very specific on that customer. But I think that's -- to answer in the general sense, we haven't seen changes in that sense.

好的。Robert，如你所知，我是說——在美國邏輯這一端，選項不多。所以我們——無法就該客戶講得非常具體。但若以一般性的角度回答，我們在這方面沒有看到變化。

If you look at it from a point of view of the node introductions, the planned node introductions are actually happening. And the existing nodes are at high utilization because there's a particularly high demand for that current node, which is not a surprise either. And everything else is according to plan.

如果從節點導入的角度來看，原先規劃的節點導入確實正在發生。而既有節點的產能利用率很高，因為對目前這個節點的需求特別強勁，這也不令人意外。其他一切都按計畫進行。

So we haven't seen that much change, to be honest. That's on the -- on that particular customer, but no names.

所以老實說，我們沒有看到太大的變化。這是針對——那個特定客戶，但不提名字。

On the dividend versus share buyback, as we said, we are looking also on a go-forward basis, we are looking on growing dividends. I wouldn't people -- I wouldn't want people to assume that it's going to be a 50% uptick every single time, but we are looking at a policy of growing dividends.

關於股利與庫藏股回購，正如我們所說，我們也在展望未來的基礎上，考慮提高股利。我不希望大家——我不希望大家假設每次都會有50%的增幅，但我們確實在推動一項提高股利的政策。

That's -- as I already answered to a previous question, given the free cash flow generation that we expect in the years to come, we believe there will be significant amounts available also for share buybacks, and particularly on the share buyback program that we're looking at for this year and for the previous year. Indeed, the amount that we have in this quarter was fairly limited, but we are expecting to complete that program by the end of this year in accordance with what we've indicated.

這——如我先前已回答過的，鑑於我們預期未來幾年的自由現金流創造能力，我們相信也會有可觀的金額可用於庫藏股回購，特別是就我們今年以及前一年的回購計畫而言。確實，本季我們回購的金額相當有限，但我們預期會在今年年底前完成該計畫，符合我們所指引的內容。

Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for one last question. If you're unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact ASML Investor Relations Department with your question. Now operator, may we have the last caller please?

各位女士、先生，我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。如果您無法在本次電話會議中提問但仍有問題，歡迎與ASML投資人關係部門聯繫並提出您的問題。現在請接線員為我們接通最後一位來電者，好嗎？

Our last question is from Mr. David O'Connor.

最後一個問題來自David O'Connor先生。

Great. It's David here from Exane BNP. Maybe Peter, 1 or 2 smaller follow-ons from previous questions. Firstly, the smaller node transitions and the cadence change that we're now seeing, what does that mean for the change in customer ordering patterns for ASML? Does that smooth the kind of ordering? And how should we model that from a litho intensity viewpoint?

很好。我是Exane BNP的David。Peter，或許針對先前問題再追問一兩個小問題。首先，我們現在看到較小的節點轉換以及節奏的變化，這對ASML客戶的下單模式意味著什麼？這會讓下單變得更平滑嗎？從微影強度的角度，我們應該如何建模？

And maybe just one second question on the Memory customers in this cycle reducing utilization versus the previous cycle. What do you think is really behind that? What's the real big change there? And can we expect that in future cycles going forward?

另外第二個問題，關於本輪週期中記憶體客戶相較於上一輪週期降低產能利用率。你認為背後真正的原因是什麼？那裡最大的變化是什麼？而未來的週期中，我們是否可以預期也會如此？

I think I don't know exactly what is behind that. You should ask our customers. But it's just simply what we are seeing. I think it is -- had a certain logic to it. I mean you can keep your utilization as high as you can, but just -- that basically means you're driving the cost per device down, so the cost per chip, because you basically use the fixed cost pattern. That's one strategy.

我想我不確定背後確切原因是什麼。你應該去問我們的客戶。但這就是我們所觀察到的情況。我認為——這是有一定邏輯的。我的意思是，你可以盡可能維持高利用率，但——那基本上代表你在降低每個元件的成本，也就是每顆晶片的成本，因為你基本上是在攤提固定成本結構。這是一種策略。

The other strategy is to say -- but that could mean that the cycles last longer, yes? You could also have a strategy, say, basically, we would have shorter cycles. They go a little bit deeper, but then the recovery is also faster. And I think this is where -- when you see this, and quite a significant reduction in utilization in the memory space, that looks like that's the type of decision that they've taken.

另一種策略是說——但那可能意味著週期會更長，對吧？你也可以採取一種策略，例如基本上讓週期更短。它們會下探得更深一些，但復甦也會更快。我想這就是——當你看到記憶體領域的利用率相當顯著地下滑時，看起來他們做出的就是這類決策。

On the small node transitions, the change in order patterns, I don't think so. What I basically think is that it's more the end markets with our customers where they have different nodes that they can offer to their customers and different nodes for different purposes, different customers, whereby the positive here is that the tape-outs that our customers are talking about, the number of tape-outs, are as high as ever.

至於較小的節點轉換、訂單模式的改變，我不這麼認為。我基本上認為，更多是我們客戶所面對的終端市場：他們有不同的節點可以提供給他們的客戶，並且針對不同用途、不同客戶提供不同節點；而正面的地方在於，我們客戶所談到的tape-out數量——也就是流片數量——仍然是歷來最高。

So that means that there's a lot of demand for different solutions. And as long as you all use EUV, I don't see it's going to be any choppy pattern here or a smoothing of their pattern. They think -- it doesn't make a big difference in my opinion. It's just more diversity. So no big change. I don't expect that.

這表示對不同解決方案的需求很強。而只要你們都使用EUV，我不認為這裡會出現任何忽上忽下的模式，或是他們的模式會變得更平滑。在我看來，這並不會造成很大的差異。只是更多樣化而已。所以不會有重大改變。我不預期會那樣。

Now on behalf of ASML's Board of Management, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today.

我謹代表ASML管理董事會，感謝各位今天參與。

Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

接線員，若您可以正式結束本次電話會議，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2019 First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You can now disconnect your lines.

各位女士、先生，ASML 2019年第一季財務結果電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以掛斷電話。