艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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Veldhoven, the Netherlands is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2019 third quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken from the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live on the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

荷蘭費爾德霍芬的 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink；以及我們的財務長 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2019 年第三季業績。本次電話會議將持續 60 分鐘，並將依收到問題的順序進行提問。本次電話會議也將在 asml.com 進行網路直播。管理層開場致詞的逐字稿以及本次電話會議的重播，將在本次電話會議結束後不久於我們的網站提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位聽眾，管理層在本次電話會議中的評論將包含符合聯邦證券法意義之下的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險與不確定性。關於風險因素的討論，我建議您查閱今日新聞稿與簡報中所載的安全港聲明（可於我們的網站 asml.com 取得），以及 ASML 以 20-F 表格提交的年度報告與其他向美國證券交易委員會申報的文件。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

接下來，我想把電話會議交給 Peter Wennink，請他做簡短的開場介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2019 results conference call.

謝謝你，Skip。各位好，歡迎大家。感謝各位參加我們 2019 年第三季業績電話會議。

Before we begin the question-and-answer session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the third quarter as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. Roger will start with a review of our third quarter financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook.

在開始問答環節之前，Roger 和我想先概述第三季的情況並提供一些評論，同時也分享我們對未來幾季的看法。Roger 將先回顧我們第三季的財務表現，並補充對短期展望的評論；我將在開場的最後，針對目前的商業環境與未來業務展望提供一些額外的看法。

So Roger, if you will.

那麼，Roger，請。

Thank you, Peter. Welcome, everyone.

謝謝你，Peter。各位好，歡迎大家。

I will first highlight some of the third quarter accomplishments and then provide our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2019. Q3 net sales came in at EUR 3 billion as guided. Net system sales of EUR 2.3 billion was heavily weighted towards Logic at 79% with the remaining 21% from Memory, clearly showing the current strength of Logic business and the digestion mode of Memory business. We reported EUV system sales of EUR 743 million from 7 shipments as guided.

我將先重點說明第三季的一些成果，接著提供我們對 2019 年第四季的指引。第三季淨銷售額如指引所示為 30 億歐元。系統淨銷售額為 23 億歐元，其中 79% 主要來自邏輯（Logic），其餘 21% 來自記憶體（Memory），清楚顯示目前邏輯業務的強勁，以及記憶體業務處於消化期。我們如指引所示，報告 EUV 系統銷售額為 7.43 億歐元，來自 7 台出貨。

Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 661 million, which was a bit lower than guided. We expect this will be captured in a higher Q4 installed base sales. Gross margin for the quarter was 43.7%, nicely within the range we guided. Overall R&D and SG&A expenses came in as guided with R&D expenses at EUR 493 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 129 million.

本季裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）銷售額為 6.61 億歐元，略低於指引。我們預期這部分將反映在第四季較高的裝機基礎銷售額中。本季毛利率為 43.7%，良好落在我們所提供的指引區間內。整體研發與銷售、一般及行政（SG&A）費用如指引所示，其中研發費用為 4.93 億歐元，SG&A 費用為 1.29 億歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. EUR 154 million worth of shares were repurchased in Q3. We ended last quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 2.1 billion

接著看資產負債表。第三季回購股票金額為 1.54 億歐元。上季末我們的現金、約當現金及短期投資為 21 億歐元

Moving to the order book. Q3 systems bookings came in at a record EUR 5.1 billion, mainly driven by EUV where we received 23 new orders in the quarter, both from Logic and Memory customers. Logic order intake was 73% of the total value with the remaining 27% from Memory, again reflecting the strong Logic demand. Net income in Q3 was EUR 627 million, representing 21% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 1.49.

接著看訂單。第三季系統接單金額創下 51 億歐元的紀錄，主要由 EUV 帶動；本季我們收到 23 筆新訂單，來自邏輯與記憶體客戶。邏輯訂單占總價值的 73%，其餘 27% 來自記憶體，再次反映邏輯需求強勁。第三季淨利為 6.27 億歐元，占淨銷售額的 21%，每股盈餘（EPS）為 1.49 歐元。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the fourth quarter of 2019. We expect Q4 total net sales of around EUR 3.9 billion, which will represent another record year with approximately EUR 11.7 billion of sales. Our total net sales forecast for Q4 includes around EUR 950 million of EUV system sales from 8 planned shipments. 4 systems originally planned in Q4 will now ship in early 2020 due to temporary supply constraints in the NXE:3400C ram. We expect our Q4 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 850 million, which is almost EUR 200 million higher than Q3 driven by strong demand for field.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2019 年第四季的預期。我們預期第四季總淨銷售額約為 39 億歐元，這將使全年銷售額約 117 億歐元，再創紀錄。我們對第四季的總淨銷售額預測包含約 9.5 億歐元的 EUV 系統銷售額，來自計畫出貨的 8 台。原本計畫於第四季出貨的 4 台系統，因 NXE:3400C ram 的暫時性供應限制，將改於 2020 年初出貨。我們預期第四季裝機基礎管理銷售額約為 8.5 億歐元，較第三季高出近 2 億歐元，主要由現場（field）需求強勁所帶動。

Gross margin for Q4 is expected to be between 48% and 49%, which is significantly higher than Q3. The expected improvement in margin is due to higher system volume, higher ASP for NXE:3400C model, Deep UV product mix, higher EUV service sales and higher field upgrade sales. The expected R&D expenses for Q4 are around EUR 500 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at around EUR 135 million. Our estimated 2019 annualized effective tax rate is around 7% due to several tax benefits in 2019. We still expect our long-term effective tax rate to be 14%.

第四季毛利率預期介於 48% 至 49%，顯著高於第三季。預期毛利率改善的原因包括：系統出貨量增加、NXE:3400C 機型平均售價（ASP）較高、深紫外（DUV）產品組合、EUV 服務銷售增加，以及現場升級銷售增加。第四季預期研發費用約為 5 億歐元，SG&A 預期約為 1.35 億歐元。由於 2019 年享有多項稅務優惠，我們估計 2019 年年化有效稅率約為 7%。我們仍預期長期有效稅率為 14%。

Regarding our capital return. ASML announced that it has revised its capital return policy to provide for dividend payments on a semiannual basis. ASML dividend proposals will continue to be subject to the availability of distributable profits or retained earnings and other factors such as future liquidity requirements.

關於我們的資本回饋。ASML 宣布已修訂其資本回饋政策，將股利支付改為每半年一次。ASML 的股利提案仍將取決於可分配利潤或保留盈餘的可用性，以及未來流動性需求等其他因素。

The interim dividend over 2019 will be EUR 1.05 per ordinary share. The ex-dividend date as well as the fixing date for the euro/U. S. dollar conversion will be November 4, 2019, and the record date will be November 5, 2019. The dividend will be made payable on November 15, 2019. In January 2018, ASML announced its intention to purchase up to EUR 2.5 billion worth of shares to be executed within the 2018-2019 time frame. ASML intends to cancel these shares after repurchase with the exception of up to 2.4 million shares, which will be used to cover employee share plans.

2019 年的期中股利將為每股普通股 1.05 歐元。除息日以及歐元/美元換算的匯率確定日將為 2019 年 11 月 4 日，股權登記日為 2019 年 11 月 5 日。股利將於 2019 年 11 月 15 日支付。2018 年 1 月，ASML 宣布其意圖在 2018-2019 年期間內執行最多 25 億歐元的股票回購。除最多 240 萬股將用於員工持股計畫外，ASML 擬於回購後註銷這些股份。

Through September 29, 2019, ASML has acquired 8.2 million shares under this program for a total consideration of EUR 1.4 billion. ASML does not expect to purchase the full EUR 2.5 billion worth of shares within the 2018-2019 time frame. In line with our policy to return excess cash to shareholders through growing annualized dividends and regularly timed share buybacks, we will decide on a new share buyback program next year.

截至 2019 年 9 月 29 日，ASML 已在此計畫下收購 820 萬股，總對價為 14 億歐元。ASML 預期無法在 2018-2019 年期間內完成全部 25 億歐元的回購。依循我們透過提高年化股利並定期進行股票回購以將多餘現金回饋股東的政策，我們將於明年決定新的股票回購計畫。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter.

接下來，我想把電話會議交回給 Peter。

Thank you, Roger.

謝謝你，Roger。

As Roger highlighted, it was a good quarter and provided another clear signal on the increasing customer confidence in EUV technology as witnessed by the strong EUV order volume for both Logic and Memory manufacturing. We expect a very strong fourth quarter in both sales and profitability, again driven by Logic demand for both EUV and Deep UV, and this further confirms 2019 to be a Logic-driven year as we indicated at the start of the year, fueled by end-market applications requiring high-performance computes, such as 5G and AI, which drives demand for leading-edge Logic. This in turn translates to demand for both EUV and Deep UV in support of the most advanced nodes as customers accelerate their ramp plans for 7-nanometer and beyond.

如 Roger 所強調的，本季表現良好，並再次清楚顯示客戶對 EUV 技術的信心正在提升，這可從邏輯與記憶體製造領域強勁的 EUV 訂單量看出。我們預期第四季在營收與獲利能力方面都將非常強勁，主要仍由邏輯端對 EUV 與深紫外光（Deep UV）的需求所帶動；這也進一步印證我們在年初所指出的 2019 年將是由邏輯需求驅動的一年，並受惠於需要高效能運算的終端市場應用（如 5G 與 AI），進而推動對先進邏輯製程的需求。這也進一步轉化為對 EUV 與深紫外光的需求，以支援最先進的節點，因客戶正加速其 7 奈米及更先進節點的擴產計畫。

In Memory, the market continues to digest inventory in the supply chain and operate with reduced wafer output as they work to reach a more normalized supply/demand balance. And this translates into a weak demand from our Memory customers, and we see a significant reduction in our Memory business this year as indicated in earlier conference calls. We expect this weaker demand environment to continue through Q4 of this year, whereby the timing of the recovery still remains uncertain. We continue to expect low single-digit percentage increase in our installed base sales this year.

在記憶體方面，市場仍在消化供應鏈中的庫存，並在努力達到較為正常化的供需平衡之際，以較低的晶圓產出運作。這也轉化為我們記憶體客戶的疲弱需求；如同先前法說會所提及，我們今年的記憶體業務將出現顯著下滑。我們預期這種較弱的需求環境將延續至今年第四季，而復甦時點仍不確定。我們仍預期今年裝機基礎（installed base）銷售將呈現低個位數百分比的成長。

Let me now turn [the page] on our product side and update you on our EUV business. EUV customers continue to ramp this technology in volume manufacturing and have publicly announced some of their first EUV-manufactured devices. We continue to make solid progress and shipped our first NXE:3400C systems this quarter for use in volume manufacturing. The NXE:3400C will deliver an increase in productivity of over 35%, which will provide significant customer value and bring profitability in our EUV business more in line with the rest of the business.

接下來我將翻到產品面，向各位更新我們的 EUV 業務。EUV 客戶持續在量產中擴大導入此技術，並已公開宣布其首批採用 EUV 製造的裝置。我們持續取得穩健進展，本季已出貨首批 NXE:3400C 系統，用於量產。NXE:3400C 將帶來超過 35% 的生產力提升，這將為客戶創造顯著價值，並使我們 EUV 業務的獲利能力更接近公司其他業務水準。

The high productivity of the NXE:3400C demonstrated the required capability for Memory insertion as evidenced by the system orders as well as a potential increase of layer adoption in Logic. Of the 7 EUV systems shipped this quarter, 3 were NXE:3400C systems, and we plan to ship another 34006 -- 3400C systems next quarter of the total 8 systems planned in Q4.

NXE:3400C 的高生產力展現了記憶體導入所需的能力，這可從系統訂單以及邏輯端可能提高層數採用率看出。本季出貨的 7 台 EUV 系統中，有 3 台為 NXE:3400C；而在第四季規劃出貨的 8 台系統中，我們計畫於下季再出貨另外 5 台 NXE:3400C 系統。

As Roger mentioned, there were some temporary challenges in the supply chain as we ramp our output capability and transition to a new fully configured 3400C model. These supply constraints resulted in a movement of a few systems originally planned to ship in Q4 and to early next year. Customers are aggressively bringing new technology to the market. And with increased customer confidence around EUV technology, we're seeing strong demand for our EV systems at -- as witnessed by the strong order intake of 23 systems in Q3. These systems are planned for the ramp of 7-nanometer Logic and beyond as well as insertion in 1z and 1a DRAM production. To meet strong customer demand for our 3400C systems, we have a production plan in place for 35 EUV systems next year, which includes the systems originally planned in 2019.

如 Roger 所提到的，當我們提升產能並轉換至全新、完整配置的 3400C 機型時，供應鏈出現了一些暫時性的挑戰。這些供應限制導致原本計畫於第四季出貨的少數系統，延後至明年初出貨。客戶正積極將新技術推向市場。隨著客戶對 EUV 技術的信心提升，我們看到對 EUV 系統的強勁需求——第三季共接獲 23 台系統訂單即為明證。這些系統將用於 7 奈米及更先進邏輯製程的擴產，以及 1z 與 1a DRAM 量產的導入。為滿足客戶對 3400C 系統的強勁需求，我們已制定明年生產 35 台 EUV 系統的計畫，其中包含原本規劃於 2019 年出貨的系統。

To summarize 2019, we see a strong fourth quarter in both sales and profitability. Logic has been the primary driver of growth this year, and demand has strengthened as customers accelerate the ramp of their advanced nodes. Memory demand remains weak as customers work to reduce inventory and improve factory utilization. Our overall view for the year remains largely unchanged, and we confirm 2019 to be another year growth.

總結 2019 年，我們看到第四季在營收與獲利能力方面都將強勁。今年成長的主要驅動力來自邏輯端，且隨著客戶加速先進節點的擴產，需求已轉強。記憶體需求仍然疲弱，因客戶持續降低庫存並改善工廠稼動率。我們對全年整體看法大致不變，並確認 2019 年將是另一個成長年度。

Regarding our outlook for next year, it's too early to provide quantitative expectations, but we'll make a few qualitative comments. Major innovation drivers and applications like artificial intelligence, 5G, autonomous driving and big data are driving a clear secular growth path in high-performance Logic at the advanced nodes. Logic demand is currently strong. And although different, Logic customers are at different phases of accelerating their road map. We expect this demand to remain healthy, primarily driven by EUV, as we look into next year.

關於明年的展望，現在提供量化預期仍為時過早，但我們會提出幾點質化評論。人工智慧、5G、自動駕駛與大數據等主要創新驅動因素與應用，正推動先進節點高效能邏輯的明確長期成長路徑。目前邏輯需求強勁。此外，雖然情況各異，邏輯客戶正處於加速其技術路線圖的不同階段。展望明年，我們預期此需求將維持健康，且主要由 EUV 所驅動。

As customers transition to the 7-nanometer node and beyond with increase in EUV layers, it is also driving strong demand for our UV systems. As all systems are expected to be NXE:3400C systems next year, we expect to not only see an increase in unit volume, but also expect to see significant growth in UV sales next year. These new applications -- these new application drivers not only require high-performance Logic, but also require high-performance Memory to maximize value. Memory demand is more critical in nature -- sorry, memory demand is more cyclical in nature, and the memory market conditions today do not yet reflect what we would call moderate market conditions, but a scenario that we used to model 2020 as we -- as was shown during our Investor Day last year.

隨著客戶轉向 7 奈米及更先進節點並增加 EUV 層數，也同時帶動對我們深紫外光（Deep UV）系統的強勁需求。由於明年預期所有系統都將為 NXE:3400C，我們不僅預期出貨台數將增加，也預期明年深紫外光銷售將顯著成長。這些新應用——這些新的應用驅動因素不僅需要高效能邏輯，也需要高效能記憶體以最大化價值。記憶體需求本質上更具循環性——抱歉，記憶體需求更具循環性；而目前的記憶體市場狀況尚未反映我們所稱的溫和市場情境，而是我們在去年投資人日用來建模 2020 年的情境——如當時所展示。

Although the Memory market is widely expected to recover next year, there is uncertainty on the timing and when it will trigger the demand for wafer fab equipment and more specifically, demand for our DPV and application products. Where the Memory market recovers, history has shown that the demand can change quickly and it likely will be the case again this time. The timing and the degree of this Memory recovery, in combination with the current outlook for the Logic demand, will determine the ultimate 2020 product mix between EUV, Deep UV and application products. This not only forms the basis for another year of growth but, depending on this mix, will also determine the margin profile for the year as our EUV margin improvement is well underway but not yet at the Deep UV levels.

雖然市場普遍預期記憶體市場將於明年復甦，但復甦時點仍存在不確定性，以及何時會觸發對晶圓廠設備的需求，尤其是對我們 DUV 與應用產品的需求。一旦記憶體市場復甦，歷史顯示需求可能迅速變化，而這次很可能也會如此。記憶體復甦的時點與幅度，結合目前對邏輯需求的展望，將決定 2020 年 EUV、深紫外光（Deep UV）與應用產品之間的最終產品組合。這不僅構成另一個成長年度的基礎，而且依此組合不同，也將決定年度毛利率輪廓；因為我們的 EUV 毛利改善已在進行中，但尚未達到深紫外光的水準。

Regarding installed base business next year, we expect the service portion of this business to grow nicely as our installed base grows. As our customers start running EUV in high-volume production, we therefore expect to see more EUV service sales next year. There are also a large number of upgrades planned next year that we expect to drive significant growth in our upgrade business.

關於明年的裝機基礎業務，我們預期隨著裝機基礎擴大，該業務中的服務部分將有不錯的成長。隨著客戶開始以 EUV 進行高量產，我們因此預期明年 EUV 服務銷售將增加。此外，明年也規劃了大量升級案，我們預期將帶動升級業務的顯著成長。

In summary, the positive momentum in EUV is reflected in the increasing confidence of our customers as they accelerate the adoption of EUV technology in volume manufacturing. And although there is still some short-term uncertainty around timing and the degree of the Memory recovery, we are optimistic on a medium- to long-term secular trend which underpins the confidence we have in our 2025 growth scenarios.

總結而言，EUV 的正向動能反映在客戶信心提升，因其正加速在量產中採用 EUV 技術。儘管記憶體復甦的時點與幅度在短期仍存在一些不確定性，我們對中長期的結構性趨勢仍持樂觀態度，而這也支撐我們對 2025 年成長情境的信心。

With that, we would be happy to take your questions.

接下來，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

接線員將在稍後向各位說明問答環節的流程。（接線員指示）

Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

那麼，接線員，請提供最後的指示，然後請開始第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Mr. Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

（接線員指示）第一個問題來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的 Joe Quatrochi 先生。

Wondering if you could help us with your 2020 EUV guide. The 35 systems that you're shipping, correct me, I think I've heard you correctly that those include the 4 tools that have slipped from 2019. I was wondering if you could help us understand how do we think about the EUV revenue relative to your expectations entering 2020.

想請問您是否能協助我們了解您們 2020 年 EUV 指引。您們將出貨的 35 套系統，若我理解無誤、也請您指正，我想我聽到的是其中包含了從 2019 年延後到 2020 年的 4 套設備。我想請您協助我們理解，該如何看待 EUV 營收相對於您們在進入 2020 年時的預期。

Sure, Joe. So you're right. The 35 systems for 2020, they do include the 4 that slipped from 2019 into 2020. The systems that we're looking at for 2020 will be 3400C systems and importantly, they will be 3400C systems in final configuration, which is important. And therefore, the average sales price of those systems will reflect the -- about 30% increase over the 3400B systems. So that's the way to calculate the revenue for 2020.

當然可以，Joe。所以你說得沒錯。2020 年的 35 套系統，確實包含了從 2019 年延後到 2020 年的那 4 套。我們在 2020 年所看的系統將是 3400C 系統，而且重要的是，它們將是最終配置（final configuration）的 3400C 系統，這點很重要。因此，這些系統的平均售價將反映出——相較於 3400B 系統約 30% 的提升。所以這就是計算 2020 年營收的方式。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up, did the -- those systems, meaning the full 3400C systems, have an impact on the number of systems that ultimately you plan to ship in 2020, I guess, just given the higher throughput?

好的。這很有幫助。接著追問一下：這些系統，也就是完整的 3400C 系統，是否會影響你們最終計畫在 2020 年出貨的系統數量？我想主要是考量到更高的吞吐量。

No. No. The calculation of 35 is reflective of the total throughput that the 3400C in final configuration will bring.

不會。不會。35 的計算已反映最終配置的 3400C 所能帶來的總吞吐量。

Next question is from Mr. David Mulholland.

下一個問題來自 David Mulholland 先生。

It's Dave Mulholland from UBS. Just following up on the planning for next year because obviously, previously, we've been talking about anywhere between 30 and 35 systems to ship next year and obviously, in theory, that could then have become 39 unit capacity for next year at the high end. Do you still have optionality to do that into next year? And then just as a follow-up, on HMI, I'm just wondering if you could give us an update on where we are with the progress on that because the revenue run rate has still been quite low in the last few quarters compared to what your aspirations were when you closed the deal. So it'd be helpful just to get some thoughts on what progress we're seeing on that business into 2020.

我是 UBS 的 Dave Mulholland。我想延續追問明年的規劃，因為先前我們談到明年出貨大約 30 到 35 套系統，而理論上在高端情境下，明年的產能可能會變成 39 台。你們明年仍然有彈性做到那樣嗎？另外追問 HMI，我想請你們更新一下目前進展，因為過去幾季的營收運行率（run rate）相較於你們在完成收購時的目標仍然偏低。因此希望聽聽你們對 2020 年該業務進展的看法。

Yes. Okay. Thank you, David. On the 30 to 35 systems, that's what we said before. And indeed, you are correct, unless, as Roger mentioned, we have 4 systems that we're planning to ship in 2019, moving to 2020, so we put them on top. But as you also know, that in 2019, we were back-end loaded this year. So we always said that that's the beginning of the year. And with the introduction of the C, we experienced a few weeks' delay on certain modules that are part of the final configuration of the C. So that's why it moved into 2020.

是的。好的。謝謝你，David。關於 30 到 35 套系統，這是我們之前說過的。而且確實如你所說，除非——如 Roger 提到——我們原本計畫在 2019 年出貨的 4 套系統移到 2020 年，所以我們把它們加上去。但你也知道，2019 年我們的出貨集中在下半年。所以我們一直說那是年初的看法。而隨著 C 機型導入，我們在某些屬於 C 最終配置的模組上遇到數週的延遲，因此才會移到 2020 年。

So just to be on the safe side, we are -- you could argue, without the forces that moved from 2019 through '20, we're on the lower side of this 30 to 35 range, and that is correct. So plus 4, that's why we say 31 plus 4 is about 35 systems. Does that mean that we don't have more capability? No. We do have more capability. I think we're just more on the conservative side. Also, given what happened this year, back-end loaded, that could mean that you always have a risk of moving some systems into 2021. So you should look at it in this context.

所以為了保守起見，我們——你可以說，若不計從 2019 延到 2020 的因素，我們落在 30 到 35 這個區間的較低端，這是正確的。因此再加上 4 套，這就是為什麼我們說 31 加 4 大約是 35 套系統。這是否代表我們沒有更多能力？不是。我們確實有更多能力。我想我們只是採取較保守的態度。另外，考量今年發生的情況、出貨集中在下半年，這也意味著你總是有把部分系統延到 2021 年的風險。所以你應該在這樣的脈絡下看待。

Now on HMI, as you know, HMI shipments were largely focused on the Memory business. It's voltage contrast applications in the 3D NAND space. That, of course, has been lackluster, as we all know, and -- especially for 2019. So yes. That recovery of that sales number will of course happen when the Memory market and especially the 3D NAND market comes back.

至於 HMI，如你所知，HMI 的出貨主要聚焦在記憶體業務。也就是 3D NAND 領域的電壓對比（voltage contrast）應用。當然，這部分表現一直不理想——大家都知道——尤其是在 2019 年。所以是的。當記憶體市場、特別是 3D NAND 市場回溫時，該銷售數字的回升當然就會發生。

Can you just help, how do you feel on the axial technology programs, first, multi-beam and kind of the big steps that you were hoping to see in the business?

你能否再協助說明一下，你們對軸向（axial）技術計畫的看法，首先是多束（multi-beam），以及你們原本希望在這項業務上看到的重大進展？

Okay. Yes. Oh, yes. I think we are -- the first pilot system will ship early Q1 of next year. And that means that -- and as I mentioned on earlier calls, we had a 6- to 9-month delay on the program as compared to the timing that we discussed with you at the time of the acquisition. That had to do with the fact that we focused on partnering up with one of our key suppliers for the optics. Now for well-known reasons and good reasons, that particular participation of that partner could not happen and that actually meant we had to do it ourselves, which created a 6- to 9-month delay. So that means that the first pilot systems are going out in Q1 next year, which you have to add about a year before you go into HBM. So the anti -- note the HBM ramp will be about 12 months later move into 2021.

好的。是的。喔，是的。我認為第一套試點系統將在明年第一季初出貨。這也意味著——如我在先前的電話會議提過——相較於我們在收購時與各位討論的時程，該計畫延遲了 6 到 9 個月。原因在於我們原本專注於與一家關鍵光學供應商建立合作。但基於眾所周知且合理的原因，那位合作夥伴無法參與，這實際上意味著我們必須自行完成，因而造成 6 到 9 個月的延遲。因此，第一批試點系統會在明年第一季出貨，而在進入 HBM 之前你還需要再加上大約一年的時間。所以請注意，HBM 的爬坡（ramp）將在約 12 個月後，也就是進入 2021 年。

Next question is from Mr. Mehdi Hosseini.

下一個問題來自 Mehdi Hosseini 先生。

Just a follow-up, Peter, to the last question. Would it be fair to say that as you ship this first multi-beam e-beam system early next year, you gain more momentum, then by the time you have your next Capital Market Day, you would be able to discuss more how the Holistic Lithography part of the story is going to be scaled? And I'm asking you this because e-beam was supposed to be part of it. It was delayed, and now it's back on track. And I think now that the EUV is in high-volume manufacturing, it will be great to get an update on how holistic and part of it how multi-beam e-beam inspection going to play out throughout 2020. And I have a short follow-up.

Peter，我想就上一題追問一下。是否可以這麼說：當你們在明年初出貨第一套多束 e-beam 系統後，你們會獲得更多動能；到了下一次資本市場日（Capital Market Day）時，你們就能更進一步討論整體微影（Holistic Lithography）這部分的故事將如何擴展（scale）？我這樣問是因為 e-beam 原本應該是其中一部分。它曾延遲，但現在又回到正軌。而且我認為，既然 EUV 已進入高量產（high-volume manufacturing），能更新一下 2020 年整體策略、以及其中多束 e-beam 檢測將如何發展，會非常好。我還有一個簡短的追問。

Well, in 2020 -- if you refer to my answer to the last question, I think in 2020, we're going to ship pilot systems. I think the HBM be in 2021. So I don't think that is a major issue for 2020. I think when you referenced to a Capital Market Day of next year, which, of course, we'll talk about a bit later, but we'll definitely have one, we will talk about the holistic strategy of the company as an integral part of our entire product strategy, and it will be a growth area.

嗯，2020 年——如果你參考我對上一題的回答——我認為在 2020 年我們將出貨試點系統。我認為 HBM 會在 2021 年。所以我不認為這會是 2020 年的重大議題。至於你提到明年的資本市場日，當然我們稍後會再談一些，但我們一定會舉辦；屆時我們會把公司的整體（holistic）策略作為我們整體產品策略不可或缺的一部分來說明，而且這將是一個成長領域。

But you say EUV being there. Yes. It is ramping in HBM in 2020, definitely, but it's just the beginning. I mean the growth of the company does not depend on the growth in our holistic business. It's -- that's going to be an integral part of our growth profile. EUV, as you may remember from the previous analyst, the -- is the significant part of our business by 2025 with a significant growth profile. So I think it is both holistic applications. And you need to remember, our holistic strategy is a combination of our application business, our EUV and Deep UV business, yes? So I think all will contribute to the growth profile of the company and specifically to multi-beam, which is the first pilot shipments in 2020 and HBM after that in 2021.

但你說 EUV 已經在那裡了。是的。它在 2020 年確實正在 HBM 方面爬坡，但這只是開始。我的意思是，公司的成長並不取決於我們整體業務的成長。它——那將會是我們成長輪廓中不可或缺的一部分。EUV，如你可能還記得先前分析師會議所提到的——到 2025 年將成為我們業務的重要部分，並具備顯著的成長輪廓。所以我認為這兩者都是整體應用的一部分。而且你需要記住，我們的整體策略是由我們的應用業務、EUV 與深紫外（DUV）業務所組成的組合，對吧？所以我認為所有這些都會對公司的成長輪廓有所貢獻，特別是對多光束（multi-beam）而言，2020 年會有第一批試點出貨，之後 2021 年進入 HBM。

Great. And then a follow-up to your comment from last earning conference call, you talked about $1 billion of investment. You referred to it as a strategic investment from China and EUV insertion for DRAM. How do you see that $1 billion, which you characterized as having very minimum downside risk, trending into 2020?

很好。接著追問你在上次財報電話會議中的評論，你談到 10 億美元的投資。你把它稱為來自中國的策略性投資，以及 EUV 導入 DRAM。你如何看待這 10 億美元——你將其描述為下行風險非常小——在 2020 年的走勢？

Well, nothing changed in my mind. Absent any major geopolitical movements, the plans are still there. Chinese customers are taking the tools, and they are more or less ramping according to plan. So it also means that their expansion plans for 2020 and beyond remain very much intact.

嗯，在我看來沒有任何改變。在沒有任何重大的地緣政治變動的情況下，計畫仍然存在。中國客戶正在接收這些設備，而且基本上是依照計畫在爬坡。這也意味著他們 2020 年及之後的擴產計畫仍然非常完整、未受影響。

Well, perhaps, where does the $1 billion go? How do you see that growth trending?

那麼，或許，這 10 億美元會用到哪裡？你怎麼看這個成長趨勢？

Oh, you mean beyond 2019 into 2020 and beyond.

喔，你是指從 2019 延伸到 2020 以及之後？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Yes. I think the medium-term trend to that is -- and it could be that it all depends on how the event profiles of those customers really look like. But if you look at it over, let's say, 2-, 3-year period, it's going to be at least at that level. Now it could be 1 year, it could be a little bit more. 1 year could be a little bit less, but it's going to be at least at that level. And I think medium term, if we follow the road maps of our customers' investment plans, it will grow.

是的。我認為其中期趨勢是——而且這可能完全取決於那些客戶的事件輪廓（event profiles）實際看起來如何。但如果你把它放在例如 2 到 3 年的期間來看，至少會維持在那個水準。現在可能集中在 1 年，也可能分散得更久一些。1 年也可能略低一些，但至少會在那個水準。而我認為中期來看，如果我們跟隨客戶投資計畫的路線圖，它會成長。

Next question is from Mr. Krish Sankar.

下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 先生。

It's Cowen and Co. I have 2 of them. First one for Peter and Roger. When I look at your Memory shipment last quarter, it's almost at a 3-year low, but you have a pretty high bookings run rate. Is there a way to split up the Memory bookings by EUV and non-EUV? And along the same path, Peter, at some point next year, if and when Memory recovers, do you think it's going to be NAND or DRAM that would drive the recovery? And then I also had a follow-up.

這裡是 Cowen and Co.。我有兩個問題。第一個給 Peter 和 Roger。當我看你們上季的記憶體出貨量時，幾乎是 3 年來的低點，但你們的接單（bookings）運行率相當高。有沒有辦法把記憶體接單拆分為 EUV 與非 EUV？同樣沿著這個思路，Peter，明年某個時點如果、也當記憶體復甦時，你認為會是 NAND 還是 DRAM 帶動復甦？然後我還有一個追問。

Well, I think on the booking side, it's predominantly EUV. So the non-EUV bookings are really light. So it's a -- that -- yes. Like I said, it is predominantly EUV. On the -- and that is a strategic investment. Like I said, it's the 1z and the 1a preparations. Whether NAND or DRAM is going to recover, you tell me. And always it's a -- what we need to watch as has always been the case is the pricing levels, what is the pricing trend. When the pricing trend turns for both, you just need to see how sustainable it is. So you really need to be kind of objective from 1 or 2 weeks. We have to look at it from a little bit longer period and then look at that trend. And then you need to remember when that trend turns, that our Memory customers still have some idle capacity that they are going to use first before they start to add more wafer fab equipment. That's all. This is the general trend, both true for NAND and for DRAM. So I would advise all of us to just keep looking at the pricing trends.

嗯，我認為在接單端，主要是 EUV。所以非 EUV 的接單其實非常少。所以這是一個——那——是的。如我所說，主要是 EUV。而且那是一項策略性投資。如我所說，這是 1z 與 1a 的準備。至於 NAND 或 DRAM 哪個會復甦，你告訴我。而且一如既往，我們需要觀察的——一直以來都是——價格水準，也就是價格趨勢是什麼。當兩者的價格趨勢轉向時，你需要看它的可持續性如何。所以你真的需要在 1、2 週的時間尺度上保持客觀。我們必須從更長一點的期間來看，然後再看那個趨勢。而且你需要記住，當趨勢轉向時，我們的記憶體客戶仍有一些閒置產能，他們會先使用那些產能，之後才會開始增加更多晶圓廠設備。就這樣。這是一般性的趨勢，對 NAND 與 DRAM 都成立。所以我建議我們大家持續關注價格趨勢。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful, Peter. And then just as a follow-up for Roger. I don't want to split hairs on the EUV units for next year, but I think that is 32% or 35% and higher. How do we think about the gross margin for EUV? Does it still like fit in with your prior plan, you're going to have a 40% exit run rate next year for EUV gross margin?

了解。了解。這非常有幫助，Peter。接著只是對 Roger 的追問。我不想在明年 EUV 台數上吹毛求疵，但我想那是 32% 或 35% 甚至更高。我們該如何看待 EUV 的毛利率？它是否仍符合你們先前的計畫，也就是明年 EUV 毛利率在年底退出時（exit run rate）達到 40% 的運行率？

Yes. I think that's right. For next year, we are looking at a 40%-plus gross margin for EUV systems. That's still the plan, not just to exit the year, but in fact for the full year.

是的。我認為沒錯。對於明年，我們預期 EUV 系統的毛利率會在 40% 以上。這仍然是計畫，不只是年底退出時如此，事實上是全年度都如此。

Next question is from Ms. (sic) [Mr.] Achal Sultania.

下一個問題來自（原文誤稱 Ms.）[Mr.] Achal Sultania。

It's Achal from Credit Suisse. Maybe a question on -- again, on margins on EUV. Like obviously, Roger, you're saying it's 40% or north of 40% for whole of 2020. Like just looking at like a long-term view, your DUV margins are much higher, probably 50%, even higher than 50%. What's the -- is there any specific reason why EUV shouldn't go up towards DUV levels, not in the next 1 or 2 years but let's say, over the next 3 to 5 years? Why -- can it actually happen? Or are there some structural issues which prevent EUV margins reaching those levels?

我是瑞信（Credit Suisse）的 Achal。也許再問一個——同樣是關於 EUV 的毛利率。很明顯，Roger，你說 2020 全年是 40% 或高於 40%。但從長期角度看，你們的 DUV 毛利率高很多，可能 50%，甚至高於 50%。那麼——是否有任何特定原因，使得 EUV 在未來不應該往 DUV 的水準靠攏？不是接下來 1、2 年，而是例如未來 3 到 5 年。為什麼——它真的可能發生嗎？或者是否存在一些結構性問題，會阻止 EUV 毛利率達到那些水準？

No. I would agree. That is definitely our ambition. And more than our ambition, that is our plan to get EUV to -- not just to, I would say, the overall gross margin that we see for DPV, but to get EUV to the margin level where we currently have immersion, which is our leading lithography tool in terms of gross margin. That is the ambition, and we have the plans to get there. And that will, of course, fully depend on the value that we bring to our customers. But we're confident that with the road map that we have in front of us that we are going to get there. So that is what we're driving on the system side.

沒有。我同意。那絕對是我們的企圖心。而且不只是企圖心，那是我們的計畫：讓 EUV——我會說不只是達到我們在 DUV 所看到的整體毛利率水準——而是讓 EUV 達到我們目前浸潤式（immersion）機台的毛利率水準；浸潤式是我們在毛利率方面表現最領先的微影工具。那就是目標，而且我們有計畫達成。當然，這將完全取決於我們為客戶帶來的價值。但我們有信心，依照我們眼前的路線圖，我們將能達到那個目標。所以這就是我們在系統端所推動的方向。

And then the other that I mentioned that we're driving is EUV service, which, obviously, this year, has a gross margin that we talked about, which is not favorable. And -- but we do have plans in place in the next couple of years to get also the EUV service margin to a level that will significantly contribute to...

然後我提到我們正在推動的另一項是 EUV 服務；很明顯地，今年它的毛利率如我們先前討論的，並不理想。不過——我們已經制定了未來幾年的計畫，也要把 EUV 服務的毛利率提升到一個能夠顯著貢獻於……的水準

Let's say for the company...

比方說，對公司而言……

I think there is a bit of background noise, that might be confusing.

我覺得有一些背景雜音，可能會造成混淆。

[So I felt some reason will follow.]

[所以我覺得某些原因會接著說明。]

I think it's on the line of Mr. Sultania, sir.

我想是在 Sultania 先生那條線路上，先生。

Yes. Can you hear me now?

是的。你現在聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes. And then maybe just a follow-up on the DRAM market. Obviously, we now see one of your customers starting to use EUV for 1z and then 1 alpha RAM. Like how are the talks going on with other DRAM customers? Is it still early days to figure out what their ambitions are? Or are you making decent progress with the other 2 lead customers?

是的。然後也許再追問一下 DRAM 市場。很明顯地，我們現在看到你們其中一位客戶開始在 1z 以及 1 alpha DRAM 上使用 EUV。那麼你們與其他 DRAM 客戶的洽談進展如何？現在是否仍屬於早期階段，還難以判斷他們的企圖／規劃？或者你們與另外兩家主要客戶的進展其實相當不錯？

Yes. I think there's no doubt in my mind that all DRAM customers are going to use EUV. Now the question is different customers have different road maps and different timings when the road maps will lead to insertion of EUV. Clearly, there's a major customer that has started to do that, which means that the others will follow. And they follow in different time schedules. One is much closer than the other. That's the way that I would like to explain it.

是的。我毫不懷疑所有 DRAM 客戶最終都會使用 EUV。問題在於，不同客戶有不同的路線圖，以及其路線圖導入 EUV 的時間點也不同。很明顯地，有一家主要客戶已經開始這麼做，這也意味著其他人會跟進。只是他們跟進的時間表各不相同。其中一家會比另一家更接近。我會用這樣的方式來說明。

Next question is from Mr. Sandeep Deshpande.

下一個問題來自 Sandeep Deshpande 先生。

Please, can I understand in terms of what development needs to happen in terms of manufacturing to ramp up your capacity in EUV now that for 2020, you have on the book more orders than you have capacity, what do you need to do to ramp up your capacity? And then secondly, with regards to Memory usage of -- or DRAM usage of EUV, how the progress is on that front and how you see that ramping up? Are we seeing the TSMC started it, but then next year, it does seem to be very, very strong Logic orders. So do you expect that Memory will follow in that sort of way when Memory adopts EUV?

請問我能否了解，就製造端而言，為了提升你們目前的 EUV 產能，需要做哪些開發／改善？因為在 2020 年，你們帳上訂單已經超過你們的產能，你們需要做什麼來擴充產能？第二，關於記憶體使用——或 DRAM 使用 EUV——在這方面的進展如何？你們如何看待其放量爬坡？我們看到台積電已經開始了，但明年看起來邏輯（Logic）訂單會非常、非常強勁。所以當記憶體採用 EUV 時，你是否預期記憶體也會以類似的方式跟進？

Yes. To answer your last question, I think Memory will follow. But I think that the insertion timing of EUV for Logic customers is much closer to each other where you could say that the difference of insertion is a year, 1.5 years max, whereby I think with DRAM, it could be a bit longer. And so I think, yes, you will see this trend, but it will be -- but it will definitely be, let's say, more spread out over time where just like I said on the answer of the previous call -- of the previous question, that one of those other Memory makers or DRAM makers is closer to the leader and other one is following at more distance. So it will take more time before all players in the DRAM markets are EUV users as opposed to the Logic market where it all happens within, let's say, a 12-month time frame.

是的。先回答你最後一個問題，我認為記憶體會跟進。但我認為邏輯客戶導入 EUV 的時間點彼此更接近；你可以說導入時間差大約一年、最多一年半；而 DRAM 可能會更久一些。所以我認為，是的，你會看到這個趨勢，但它——它肯定會——可以說在時間上更分散。就像我在上一通——上一個問題的回答中所說，其他記憶體／DRAM 製造商中，有一家更接近領先者，另一家則落後得更遠。因此，要等到 DRAM 市場所有玩家都成為 EUV 使用者，會需要更長時間；相較之下，邏輯市場大致會在約 12 個月的時間框架內完成。

So on the manufacturing capacity, what needs to happen, I don't think -- our current plan is that with the focus of cycle time reduction, that's what it is, we can probably push our capacity in the supply chain and the ASML to launch UV systems. Now I'm not going to say that, that's going to be there next year. But next year, we'll be over 40. That our final plan is that with the cycle time reduction and production efficiencies, we should be able to push with the current square meters that we have and that -- perhaps a few more people, then we can push it to 50 units.

至於製造產能方面需要做什麼，我不認為——我們目前的計畫是把重點放在縮短週期時間（cycle time）；透過這點，我們大概可以推升供應鏈以及 ASML 端的產能，來出貨 EUV 系統。我不會說那會在明年就完全到位。但明年我們會超過 40 台。我們的最終計畫是，透過縮短週期時間與提升生產效率，在現有的廠房面積（平方公尺）下——也許再增加一些人力——我們可以把產能推到 50 台。

Next question is from Mr. Adithya Metuku.

下一個問題來自 Adithya Metuku 先生。

It's Bank of America Merrill Lynch, just Adi. First question is really on the EUV gross profit margin in the quarter. I just wondered if you could give us some color on what the margin was in 3Q and what do you expect us to do in 4Q, and then just any color on the ramp into 2020 as well. I know you've given the number for the full year, but any -- how should we think about the cadence? And my follow-up is on the CapEx. You previously said that annualizing the 1Q number would be a good proxy for CapEx for this year. Is that still true? And how should we think about that into next year?

這裡是美國銀行美林，Adi。第一個問題主要是關於本季 EUV 的毛利率。我想請你們提供一些背景：第三季的毛利率大概是多少？第四季你們預期會如何？以及 2020 年的爬坡也請給一些顏色。我知道你們已經給了全年數字，但——我們應該如何看待其節奏（cadence）？我的追問是關於資本支出（CapEx）。你們先前說，把第一季的數字年化會是今年 CapEx 的一個不錯的代理指標。現在仍然如此嗎？那對明年又該如何看待？

So on the gross margin for EUV in Q3, I think we said that for the full year, you would look at the full year around 30%; for Q3, you're looking at slightly under 30%; for Q4, you're looking at slightly over 30%. That's the way to look at it.

關於第三季 EUV 的毛利率，我想我們說過，全年大約看 30%；第三季大約略低於 30%；第四季則略高於 30%。可以用這樣的方式來看。

Again, we should bear in mind that in Q4, we don't get the full benefit of the pricing of the 3400C because of what we discussed earlier on, which is that they are not yet in final configuration. So you will see for 2020 that there is more potential there. And that added to what Peter was discussing, which is the reduction of cycle time, all those are the factors that will ultimately drive EUV system sales to the 30%, 40% and above that, that we discussed earlier on.

同樣地，我們要記得第四季我們無法完全享受到 3400C 定價帶來的全部效益，原因如我們先前討論的：它們尚未處於最終配置。因此你會看到 2020 年有更大的潛力。再加上 Peter 所談到的縮短週期時間，這些因素最終都會推動 EUV 系統銷售的毛利率達到我們先前討論的 30%、40% 甚至更高。

In terms of CapEx, I think that the CapEx number that you've seen for the first quarters, I think you will see a slight increase. And that's for the fourth quarter. So for the full year, you're going to see approximately EUR 800 million to EUR 900 million of CapEx. For the next -- for 1 or 2 years thereafter, you might see similar levels of CapEx because as we have pointed out before, we are at a point where we are really accelerating the developments of our High-NA. And of course, that will lead to building of clean rooms. It will lead to significant investments that we're making together with ZEISS. We're building a logistics center. So we have -- we're really preparing for a sort of the ramp of both low-NA EUV, but also for High-NA. So we will see that for, let's say, another 2 years. And then gradually, you will see that the CapEx levels, as a percentage of sales, will develop to the kind of 3% that we've modeled for 2025. So I think that's the way to look at it. So a few years of significant investments and then getting to a more steady state, 30%, that we've indicated for 2025.

就資本支出而言，我認為你在前幾季看到的 CapEx 數字，第四季會略有增加。也就是在第四季。因此全年 CapEx 大約會是 8 億到 9 億歐元。接下來 1 到 2 年，你可能會看到類似水準的 CapEx，因為如我們先前指出，我們正處於大幅加速 High-NA 研發的階段。當然，這會帶來無塵室的建置。也會帶來我們與 ZEISS 共同進行的重大投資。我們正在建置一個物流中心。所以我們——我們正在為低 NA EUV 的放量爬坡，以及 High-NA 的準備做足準備。因此我們會在接下來大約兩年看到這樣的情況。然後你會逐步看到 CapEx 水準（占銷售額的百分比）朝向我們為 2025 年所建模的約 3% 發展。我認為可以這樣看待。也就是幾年顯著投資之後，進入較穩態——到我們為 2025 年所指引的 30%。

Next question is from Mr. Robert Sanders.

下一個問題來自 Robert Sanders 先生。

Deutsche Bank. Yes. I just had a question on DUV sales in 2020. How are you thinking about your year-on-year growth rate in 2020, given the kind of ongoing uncertainty in Memory and the substitution of immersion for EUV with your Logic customers?

德意志銀行。是的。我想問一個關於 2020 年 DUV 銷售的問題。鑑於記憶體市場持續存在不確定性，以及在邏輯客戶端以浸潤式（immersion）取代 EUV 的情況，您如何看待 2020 年的年對年成長率？

Yes. Well, I think on -- that substitution has happened with the intake of the orders, but that's all planned. So that was not a big surprise. And I think the DPV sales has always -- it will not be driven by Logic because Logic is pretty strong. DPV sales and the trend of DPV sales will be driven by the timing of the recovery of the Memory market. So I think what we will see in DPV sales is a -- it's a bit of -- it will happen. I'm pretty confident that the Memory rebound will happen in 2020. It's just a matter of when. But if that's the case, then I would see an improvement of the DPV sales profile throughout 2020. To what level really depends on the timing of the recovery.

是的。嗯，我認為——那種替代在訂單接單時就已經發生了，但那都是規劃內的。所以那並不是很大的意外。而且我認為 DPV 銷售一直以來——它不會由邏輯所驅動，因為邏輯相當強勁。DPV 銷售以及 DPV 銷售的趨勢將由記憶體市場復甦的時點所驅動。所以我認為我們在 DPV 銷售上會看到——有點——它會發生的。我相當有信心記憶體反彈會在 2020 年發生。只是時間點的問題。但如果是那樣，那麼我會看到 2020 年整體 DPV 銷售輪廓逐步改善。至於會改善到什麼程度，確實取決於復甦的時點。

Got it. And just one follow-up for Roger. What is the actual gross margin you're going to be getting on the per-wafer services model for EUV when those 2 get in production? I mean excluding any pro bono structure doing for early-stage customers. I mean just the per wafer margin on the services revenue, the EUR 5 million to EUR 6 million plateau.

了解。另外再追問 Roger 一題。當那兩台 EUV 進入量產後，你們在 EUV 的按晶圓（per-wafer）服務模式上，實際能取得的毛利率是多少？我的意思是，不包含你們為早期客戶提供的任何義務性（pro bono）架構。我是指服務營收中按晶圓計的毛利，也就是那個 500 萬到 600 萬歐元的平台水準。

Well, Bob, we're looking at -- for the end of 2010, we're looking at breaking even on the gross margin for EUV services. As you know and as we've talked about before, this year, we have a mismatch because on the one hand, we have significant cost of helping our customers prepare for high volume and manufacturing, whereas the service revenue is based on wafer output, which, of course, is only kicking in gradually this quarter and last quarter at a very low pace. Of course, that will rebalance itself in the course of 2020. So at that stage, we will get an imbalance. And then from 2021 onwards, we'll see a significant, positive development in the gross margin development of EUV service sales.

嗯，Bob，我們在看——到 2010 年底，我們預期 EUV 服務的毛利率大致打平。如你所知、也如我們之前談過的，今年我們存在不匹配：一方面，我們為協助客戶為高產量與量產做準備而承擔了顯著成本；另一方面，服務營收是以晶圓產出為基礎，而晶圓產出當然是在本季與上季才以非常低的速度逐步開始貢獻。當然，這種狀況會在 2020 年的過程中重新平衡。所以在那個階段，我們會出現不平衡。而從 2021 年起，我們將看到 EUV 服務銷售毛利率出現顯著且正向的改善。

Next question is from Mr. Pierre Ferragu.

下一個問題來自 Pierre Ferragu 先生。

It's Pierre, New Street Research. So I just wanted to maybe check with you where we stand in the ramp of EUV in Logic in terms of penetration in the node that are rolling out, being ramped up now and the next generation that is going to be ramping up maybe in 1 or 2 years from now. And my question is, if you sell like X number of tools or X number of players in the 7-nanometer, 7-plus node, what kind of number of tools or what kind of number of layers should we expect in the next-generation models of 5-nanometer or 5 node?

我是 Pierre，New Street Research。我想跟你們確認一下，我們目前在邏輯端 EUV 擴產爬坡（ramp）的進展如何：就正在導入、目前正在爬坡的製程節點的滲透率，以及可能在未來 1 到 2 年開始爬坡的下一代節點。我的問題是，如果你們在 7 奈米、7+ 節點賣出 X 台設備或給 X 家客戶，那麼在下一代 5 奈米或 5 節點的機型上，我們應該預期多少台設備、或多少層數？

Yes. Thank you. It's -- when you look at the 7-nanometer node, I mean we said this before, on average, there is about 10 layers, yes. That's all in average. And then with different customers, we have different layers. But the average, if you take 10, you're probably right. When you go to the next node, which is going to be 5-nanometer node, you should look at doubling it, yes. So -- and this is about the main rule that you can use. But again, it depends on the customer architecture. Some could be a bit lower, other could be a bit higher. But if you say 10 and then double it to 20, then you're probably on the safe side.

是的。謝謝。——當你看 7 奈米節點時，我的意思是我們之前說過，平均大約是 10 層，是的。那是平均值。而不同客戶會有不同的層數。但如果以平均來看，取 10 層大概是對的。當你進到下一個節點，也就是 5 奈米節點時，你應該把它看作是加倍，是的。所以——這大致是你可以使用的主要規則。但同樣地，這取決於客戶的架構。有些可能會低一些，其他可能會高一些。但如果你說 10 層，然後加倍到 20 層，那你大概就比較保守、比較安全。

Okay. Right. And then if you think of anything in terms of how you translate that into the outlook revenue for yourself, then we need to take into account the improvement of productivity in tools and then increase in prices. But is that safe to assume that very roughly, the revenue you get, let's say, on the per-layer basis, very, very rough, is about the same between the first 10 layers and the next 10 layers when you're producing 5 -- in 5-nanometer? Or would you have like an increase in terms of value per layer for you?

好的。對。那如果你們思考如何把這轉換成你們自己的營收展望，我們需要把設備生產力提升以及價格上漲納入考量。但是否可以安全地假設，非常粗略地說，以每層（per-layer）為基礎，你們取得的營收在前 10 層與後 10 層（在 5——在 5 奈米量產時）大致相同？還是說你們每層的價值會有所提升？

Yes. I think it's not simply a function of volume. It's also a function of the value. So when we look at our road map there, the road map is really driven by the productivity of our tools. And we are still focusing on improving the next-generation points you see in NA EUV tools in terms of productivity. So that will be a higher value. But also, it's not only that, it is also the more stringent and more -- I'd say, more aggressive on product overlay numbers that are also going to provide a little value to our customers. So it is a combination of those 2. So it's that -- it's -- so the growth of the sales will not only be a function of the volume, but definitely also volume times the value increase. And the value increase will be driven by the things I just said. It's productivity and overlay.

是的。我認為這不只是量的函數。它也是價值的函數。所以當我們看我們的路線圖時，路線圖其實是由設備的生產力所驅動。而我們仍然專注於提升你在 NA EUV 設備上看到的下一代節點在生產力方面的表現。所以那會帶來更高的價值。但不僅如此，還有更嚴格、也可以說更積極的產品疊對（overlay）指標，這也會為我們的客戶帶來一些價值。所以這是兩者的組合。因此——因此銷售成長不僅是量的函數，當然也會是「量乘以價值提升」。而價值提升將由我剛才提到的因素所驅動。也就是生產力與疊對。

And just simply the way to look at it if you want to model this, at the current technology and the current throughput numbers that we have, typically, 1 layer translates for 45 AK wafer star translates into 1 tool. That's the way to look at it. But then, exactly as Peter says, to the extent that you get throughput improvements, then obviously you need to do the math how that translates into a reduction of that.

如果你想用更簡單的方式來看、用來建模的話，以我們目前的技術與目前的吞吐量數據來看，通常 1 層對應 45K 晶圓啟動量（wafer starts）就對應 1 台設備。這就是看待它的方式。但接著，正如 Peter 所說，當你取得吞吐量改善時，那麼你當然需要計算這會如何轉換成該比率的下降。

And the -- you have to realize, it's all about cost. So if you have a machine that has a higher throughput and that throughput is recognized by the customer, that also means that the breakeven point between the multiple patterning layer and that EUV layer comes closer and closer, yes? So yes, we will see with a higher productivity, higher uptime, the better non-maturity of the tool, the better overlay, I think you're all right to just basically transfer multiple layers into EUV. That's also a thing to consider, and that's something we will figure out in the next 2 to 3 years.

而且——你必須意識到，一切都與成本有關。所以如果你有一台吞吐量更高的機器，而且客戶也認可這個吞吐量，這也意味著多重圖形化（multiple patterning）層與 EUV 層之間的損益兩平點會越來越接近，是嗎？所以是的，隨著更高的生產力、更高的稼動率（uptime）、設備更好的非成熟度（non-maturity）、更好的疊對，我認為你說基本上把多重圖形化的多個層轉移到 EUV 是合理的。這也是需要考量的一點，而這也是我們在未來 2 到 3 年會釐清的事情。

Next question is from Mr. C.J. Muse.

下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 先生。

C.J. with Evercore ISI. I guess first question, if I go back to your commentary in early September around Memory, you were talking about an increase in utilization and giving some comfort to a recovery, whereas I think the language here seems a little bit more, I don't know, conservative. And so I guess would love to hear if anything has changed in your Memory outlook over the last month or 2. And then as you think about a recovery into 2020, if you could parse how you're thinking about NAND versus DRAM, given that your intensity on the NAND side is so much less than the DRAM side.

我是 Evercore ISI 的 C.J.。我想第一個問題，如果我回到你在 9 月初針對記憶體的評論，你當時談到稼動率提升，並對復甦帶來一些信心；但我覺得這裡的措辭似乎更……我不知道，更保守一些。所以我想聽聽，在過去 1 到 2 個月裡，你們對記憶體展望是否有任何改變。接著，當你們思考 2020 年的復甦時，能否拆解一下你們對 NAND 相較於 DRAM 的看法？考量到你們在 NAND 端的設備強度遠低於 DRAM 端。

Yes. I think you are absolutely right on the last point. I mean it depends. And I think it was an earlier question, what do we think is going to rebound first, NAND or DRAM? And I answered that by saying we don't know. But it's true. If NAND ramps first, the litho intensity in NAND is lower than in DRAM. At the other hand, it's very difficult to predict which one will go first.

是的。我認為你在最後一點完全說得對。我的意思是，這要看情況。而且我想之前也有人問過：你們認為會先反彈的是 NAND 還是 DRAM？我當時的回答是我們不知道。但這是真的。如果 NAND 先拉升，那麼 NAND 的微影強度低於 DRAM。另一方面，要預測哪一個會先走，確實非常困難。

On the increase in utilization, we have actually said in terms of the utilization, what we have seen is that the utilization numbers have stabilized and it's just a matter of to see how DRAM pricing will recover, how inventories that are in the chain, how inventories will be in and up and will be absorbed over what time periods, then customers will start to utilize the tools even at the higher level before they start putting in orders for new wafer fab equipment. I think it's the utilization leveling that we have seen, which is always good. We talked about it in that context. But then it doesn't tell you anything about the end market yet because that is a matter of people buying more bits.

關於稼動率的提升，我們其實說過，就稼動率而言，我們看到的是稼動率數字已經趨於穩定；接下來只是要觀察 DRAM 價格會如何回升、供應鏈中的庫存狀況、庫存會在什麼時間區間內被消化吸收，然後客戶才會在下新晶圓廠設備訂單之前，即使在較高水準也開始提高工具的使用率。我認為我們看到的是稼動率持平，這一向是好事。我們是在那樣的脈絡下談到它。但它還不能告訴你終端市場的情況，因為那取決於人們是否購買更多的位元（bits）。

And with reference to what I said earlier in our 2020 model, which was the scenario modeling that we did, we assumed for 2020 a 20% bit growth in DRAM and a 40% in NAND. This is not where we are today. Now that doesn't tell us anything about next year because it could change and it probably will and it very likely will. But to what extent would it then grow in 2020, that's something we just have to wait and see. And like I said, I would suggest we all look at the pricing levels of those devices and take that as an early indicator of what's going to happen.

另外，回到我先前在我們 2020 年模型中提到的，也就是我們做的情境建模，我們假設 2020 年 DRAM 的位元成長為 20%，NAND 為 40%。這不是我們今天所處的位置。這也不代表明年的情況，因為它可能會改變，而且大概會改變，也很可能會改變。但 2020 年究竟會成長到什麼程度，這是我們只能再觀察的事情。如我所說，我建議大家都去看那些元件的價格水準，並把它當作接下來會發生什麼的早期指標。

That's very helpful. As my follow-up, you talked about not achieving your target at least on the near-term buyback plan. I guess is the reasoning there that investing in High-NA and multi-beam and that's the reason why for the push? Then as a follow-up to that, your target model for 2020 was 410 million shares, and we're sitting here today at 422 million. Do you think the buybacks that you have planned into 2020 can get us to that target model level?

這很有幫助。作為追問，你提到至少在短期回購計畫上沒有達到你們的目標。我想原因是否在於要投資 High-NA 和 multi-beam，因此才會推遲？再追問一下，你們 2020 年目標模型是 4.10 億股，而我們今天是 4.22 億股。你認為你們規劃在 2020 年進行的回購，能把我們帶回到那個目標模型水準嗎？

So C.J., a couple of reasons for the share buyback program and the delay in execution thereof, if you like. So one, we should not forget that we also introduced an interim dividend and, of course, we can only distribute the euros once, right? So that is one -- a key element. You're right, CapEx. And we talked about CapEx is significant. So that's another driver. And also, the further ramping of EUV and also the fact that we're pretty backloaded this year in terms of sales. I mean all of that contributes to a free cash flow pattern this year, which is a bit of an anomaly. And that's -- so that's combined with the interim dividend. I think that created the circumstance that we just described.

所以 C.J.，關於庫藏股回購計畫以及如果你願意這麼說的話、其執行延後，有幾個原因。第一，我們也別忘了我們同時推出了期中股利，當然，我們只能把歐元分配一次，對吧？所以那是一個——關鍵因素。你說得對，資本支出（CapEx）。而且我們談過 CapEx 很可觀。所以那也是另一個驅動因素。此外，EUV 的進一步放量，以及今年在銷售上相當偏後段的事實。我的意思是，這些都造成了今年自由現金流的型態有點異常。再加上期中股利。我認為這就形成了我們剛才描述的情況。

Tempting, what you do, to ask us to make any projections on the share buyback program in 2020. We're going to do that in 2020. And in 2020, we'll announced what the share buyback program will look like at that point.

你這樣問，確實很誘人，想要我們對 2020 年的庫藏股回購計畫做任何預測。我們會在 2020 年再做這件事。而在 2020 年，我們會在那個時間點宣布庫藏股回購計畫會是什麼樣子。

Next question is from Mr. Andrew Gardiner.

下一個問題來自 Andrew Gardiner 先生。

It's Andrew Gardiner from Barclays. A bit of a -- if I could start with a follow-up actually to one of the earlier questions on layer count. Peter, in your prepared comments as well, you sort of referenced the performance of 3400C and sort of talked about customers being -- sort of having greater conviction in the tools operation and therefore, layer count going up. So when you talk about sort of 10 layers on average at 7-nanometer, doubling to 20 at 5-nanometer, that has been a moving target higher. 7-nanometer's relatively fixed at this point. But as we look at the 5-nanometer, is there still the opportunity for that to go higher? What are you hearing from the customers in terms of those plans?

我是 Barclays 的 Andrew Gardiner。我想先從一個——其實是對先前關於層數（layer count）問題的追問開始。Peter，你在事先準備的評論中也提到 3400C 的表現，並談到客戶——某種程度上對工具運作更有信心，因此層數上升。所以當你談到 7 奈米平均大約 10 層、到 5 奈米翻倍到 20 層時，這個目標一直在往上移。7 奈米在此時相對固定。但當我們看 5 奈米時，是否仍有機會再往上？你們從客戶那邊聽到的計畫是什麼？

Yes. I think it's a good question. Of course, our planning of the number of layers that we use EUV is also based on the assumption that our -- that we share with our customers or customers share with us. And you should not forget, there's always a level of conservatism in there. You have to -- where you have the tool, let's say, 2 years back, and we talked about layers of 7-nanometer. And of course, they look at those layers at the absolute necessarily layers that needed EUV. And over time, when we got more confidence and customers got more confidence on EUV as a production technology, the layer count went up. It gradually went up. And it's logical because you get more confidence and that means your level of risk-taking is also different, which I think will also be true for 5 -- when you go to 5-nanometer.

是的。我認為這是個好問題。當然，我們對使用 EUV 的層數所做的規劃，也建立在我們——也就是我們與客戶共享、或客戶與我們共享的假設之上。而且你不應該忘記，裡面總是會有一定程度的保守性。你必須——比方說，當你在大約 2 年前擁有那台工具時，我們談的是 7 奈米的層數。當然，他們會把那些層數視為絕對必要、必須用 EUV 的層。隨著時間推進，當我們更有信心、客戶也更有信心把 EUV 當作量產技術時，層數就上升了。它是逐步上升的。這是合乎邏輯的，因為你更有信心，代表你承擔風險的程度也會不同；我認為當你走向 5——也就是走向 5 奈米時，也會是如此。

And we would -- and we will execute on our productivity improvement plans, we will execute on our uptime plans, we will execute on the plans that we have for the improvement along product overlay. When you look at that and we do this and customer will gain more confidence over time and obviously in 2020 on the use of EUV in high-volume production and we execute on our plans, I see a trend similar to what we saw on the 7-nanometer, is that the number of layers might go up. And that would be quite logical, but it's all a matter of cost. So yes, there is definitely upside opportunity.

而我們會——我們將執行我們的生產力提升計畫，我們將執行我們的稼動率（uptime）計畫，我們將執行我們在產品疊對（overlay）改善方面的計畫。當你看這些、而我們也確實做到，客戶會隨著時間推移而更有信心；而且很明顯在 2020 年，隨著 EUV 在高量產中的使用，以及我們執行我們的計畫，我看到一個與 7 奈米類似的趨勢，也就是層數可能會上升。這會相當合乎邏輯，但一切都取決於成本。所以是的，確實有明顯的上行機會。

Okay. And Roger, if I could follow up just on OpEx. So it's been creeping higher through the course of the year for a number of reasons, but we still got those 2020 targets that you set out around this time last year, and it's looking increasingly harder with each passing quarter to get -- and particularly on the R&D side the -- sort of the 14% of sales number. Can you just give us a better sense as to how we should be thinking about your OpEx plans into next year relative to that?

好的。Roger，如果我可以就營運費用（OpEx）再追問一下。所以今年以來因為多種原因，OpEx 一直在緩步上升，但我們仍然有你在去年這個時候提出的 2020 年目標，而隨著每一季過去，要達成看起來愈來愈困難——尤其是在研發（R&D）端，也就是約占銷售額 14% 的那個數字。你能否更清楚地說明，我們應該如何看待你們明年相對於該目標的 OpEx 規劃？

Sure. So on the SG&A side, I think the 4% that we've modeled, that's -- I think that's still what we're targeting for. So I think that's probably still the right number to go for.

當然。在 SG&A 方面，我認為我們建模的 4%——我想這仍然是我們的目標。所以我認為那大概仍是應該努力的正確數字。

In terms of R&D, I guess the way to look at it is this year, we're probably going to end approximately EUR 2 billion. That's the R&D number that we're looking at for this year. I think if we look at the capacity that we have today after the significant increase in capacity in terms of number of people that we have in the R&D department, I think we're now at a stage where we say that's the right capacity to have for the -- at least for the near-term development plans that we have. We talk about the acceleration for low-NA. We talk about High-NA. We talk about multi-beam. We talked to you before about, for instance, the people that we hired as a result of the Mapper transaction for multi-beam. So I think at this stage, we're comfortable with the people that we have. So for the foreseeable future, I think what you're looking at is that the capacity is okay. And therefore, for the years to come, you will primarily see an increase that is, let's call it, inflation related. But the capacity that we have today, we think we'll do it for the foreseeable future.

至於研發（R&D），我想可以這樣看：今年我們大概會在約 20 億歐元結束。這就是我們今年所看的研發金額。我認為如果看我們今天的產能——在研發部門人數大幅增加、顯著擴充人力之後——我們現在已經到了可以說：就我們至少短期的開發計畫而言，這是合適的產能規模。我們談到低 NA 的加速。我們談到高 NA。我們談到多光束（multi-beam）。我們之前也跟各位談過，例如因 Mapper 交易而聘用的人員，用於多光束。所以我認為在這個階段，我們對現有人力感到滿意。因此在可預見的未來，我認為你們看到的是：這個產能是足夠的。也因此，未來幾年你們主要會看到的增加，我們姑且稱之為與通膨相關的增加。但我們認為今天的產能，在可預見的未來都足以支撐。

Yes.

是的。

Next question is from Mr. Aleksander Peterc.

下一個問題來自 Aleksander Peterc 先生。

This is Alex Peterc from Soc Gen. Just a few follow-up questions. Could you be more specific on what the [knot] final configuration of C machine that you're currently shipping means exactly in terms of throughputs? And I suppose there will be later upgrade within this sort of payments from customers. That's the first one. And the second question is really more on the DRAM layer side. I understand that in 1z, there is only 1 EUV layer for now being planned. But I guess the 1 alpha generation will be more fruitful for you. So how many layers do you plan for the next-generation DRAM?

我是 Soc Gen 的 Alex Peterc。有幾個追問。你能否更具體說明，你們目前出貨的 C 機台所謂的 [knot] 最終配置，對產出量（throughput）究竟代表什麼？我想之後也會在客戶付款的這個架構下進行升級。這是第一個問題。第二個問題比較是關於 DRAM 的層數。我理解在 1z 節點，目前規劃只有 1 層 EUV。但我猜 1 alpha 世代對你們會更有利。那麼下一代 DRAM 你們規劃會有多少層？

Yes. So on the throughput for the 3400C, as we said before, for the machine, it's 170 that the throughput that which, again, is a more than 30% uptick from the 125 that we had on the B machines. The changes that we're going to make to the machines that are out in the field now, both for this quarter and for next quarter, in essence, they're not really related to throughput, they are more related on the availability of the tool. So -- because it's all related primarily to the modular vessel. And that is not so much a factor, if you like, in throughput, it's a factor in the availability. Now we expect that, that will be done next year.

是的。關於 3400C 的產出量（throughput），如我們先前所說，該機台的 throughput 是 170；同樣地，這比我們在 B 機台上的 125 提升了超過 30%。我們將對目前已在客戶端現場的機台所做的變更——不論是本季或下季——本質上其實與 throughput 無關，而是更多與設備可用率（availability）相關。所以——因為這主要都與模組化腔體（modular vessel）有關。而這與其說是 throughput 的因素，不如說是可用率的因素。我們預期這會在明年完成。

In terms of upgrades, for the 3400B machines, we do have a number of upgrades available for 3400Bs do not exactly get into the same throughput out of 3400C because that would mean swapping of LANs, which wouldn't make economic sense. But we do have a number of upgrades available to customers that they can choose from that would substantially drive up the performance of our 3400B machine.

就升級而言，對於 3400B 機台，我們確實有多項可用的升級；但 3400B 不可能完全達到 3400C 的同等 throughput，因為那將意味著更換 LANs，而在經濟上並不合理。不過我們確實提供多種升級選項給客戶，他們可以自行選擇，這些升級將能大幅提升我們 3400B 機台的效能。

At 20%?

提升 20%？

Yes. About 20%, I'm sorry.

是的。大約 20%，抱歉。

Yes. On the -- and on the DRAM layer count, yes. I mean on 1z, it's 1 layer. On 1 alpha -- also, what is true for Logic is also true for DRAM. I think its throughput is amazing. And DRAM is more cost-sensitive in a sense. So higher throughput to more attractive. It could be to replace these multiple patterning layers with EUV. So that is one thing. At the other hand also, what we are seeing is that device performance in DRAM is also very much favorable when it comes to these critical layers for EUV.

是的。至於——DRAM 的層數，是的。我的意思是，在 1z 是 1 層。在 1 alpha——同樣地，對邏輯（Logic）成立的情況，對 DRAM 也成立。我認為它的 throughput 非常驚人。而 DRAM 在某種意義上對成本更敏感。所以更高的 throughput 更具吸引力。它可能用 EUV 來取代這些多重圖形化（multiple patterning）層。這是一點。另一方面，我們也看到，在 DRAM 中，當涉及這些 EUV 的關鍵層時，元件效能（device performance）也非常有利。

So now 1 alpha is not in HBM yet, as you know. So it's still in -- you could say, that is still in the development phase. But currently, we are looking at 3 to 4 layers. So I mean we've been surprised. I've been getting some feedback on the reasons why our customers want to move with DRAM in -- sorry, with EUV in DRAM. And one of the reasons is not so much the current productivity, but it is the device performance that you get when you use EUV as compared to Deep UV. So currently, 3 to 4 layers. But like I said, it's in the development stage, so we don't know what is still in there when we really get to a maturity level. So let's wait and see, but I think that would be a safe bet.

所以目前 1 alpha 還沒有進到 HBM，如你所知。所以它仍然在——你可以說，仍處於開發階段。但目前我們看到的是 3 到 4 層。我的意思是，我們也感到意外。我一直收到一些回饋，說明為什麼客戶想在 DRAM 中導入——抱歉，是在 DRAM 中導入 EUV。其中一個原因與其說是當前的生產力，不如說是使用 EUV 相較於深紫外（Deep UV）所帶來的元件效能。所以目前是 3 到 4 層。但如我所說，這仍在開發階段，所以當我們真正達到成熟階段時，裡面還會有哪些變化我們也不確定。所以讓我們拭目以待，但我認為這會是一個相對保守且可靠的估計。

We have time for one last question. So if you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please free to contact ASML investor relations department. Now operator, may we have the last caller, please?

我們還有時間再問最後一個問題。所以如果你未能在這通電話中提問但仍有問題，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資人關係部門。現在，接線員，請讓我們接最後一位來電者，好嗎？

The last question is from Mr. Amit Harchandani.

最後一個問題來自 Amit Harchandani 先生。

Amit Harchandani from Citi. Two questions, if I may. Firstly, maybe for Roger. When we look at -- you touched upon the free cash flow development earlier. And when we look at the change in assets and liabilities over the first 9 months, it does seem significantly more negative than in previous year. I would assume that's to do with the EUV ramp. But could you give us a sense for how you think free cash flow development might shape up going into next year? Any parts in terms of how we should model that would be appreciated. And secondly, if I may, going back to the 23 orders, just wanted to understand the thought process in terms of customer discussions. Clearly, a large number. Do you think the customer has gone ahead and placed this order because they are worried that EUV is accelerating and they might fall behind in the queue? You think it's a one-off? Is it a sign of maturity? Just trying to understand what's led to the customer go ahead and place such a large order at this stage.

我是 Citi 的 Amit Harchandani。如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。第一個可能是給 Roger。我們看——你先前提到自由現金流（free cash flow）的發展。而當我們看前 9 個月資產與負債的變動時，確實看起來比前一年顯著更為負面。我猜這與 EUV 的爬坡（ramp）有關。但你能否讓我們了解一下，你認為進入明年後自由現金流的走勢可能會如何發展？任何關於我們應該如何建模的部分都將不勝感激。第二個問題，如果可以的話，回到那 23 台訂單，我想了解客戶討論背後的思考脈絡。顯然數量很大。你認為客戶之所以提前下這筆訂單，是因為擔心 EUV 正在加速、他們可能在排隊上落後嗎？你覺得這是一次性的嗎？這是否代表成熟度提升的訊號？只是想了解是什麼促使客戶在這個階段下了這麼大的一筆訂單。

Amit, thank you. I'll take the free cash flow question and Peter will take the customer question. So on the free cash flow, I think it's actually a combination of things. I think, rightfully, you point at the continued EUV ramp. That's definitely the case. I mean the way EUV is ramping indeed does lead to a free cash flow anomaly, as I call it. So therefore, you would expect at some stage for that to normalize. And also, given where we are today, we are talking to our customers to look at different models and also in terms of prepayment there and down payments in there. So that's what we're addressing. And I think given the level of maturity that we currently have on the products, I think that is the right way for us to go.

Amit，謝謝你。我來回答自由現金流的問題，Peter 會回答客戶的問題。關於自由現金流，我認為其實是多種因素的組合。我想你指出持續的 EUV 擴產爬坡是合理的。確實如此。我的意思是，EUV 的爬坡方式確實會導致我所稱的自由現金流異常。因此，你會預期在某個階段它會回歸正常。另外，考量到我們目前的狀況，我們也正與客戶討論不同的模式，包括預付款以及訂金等安排。這就是我們正在處理的部分。而且我認為，以我們目前產品的成熟度水準來看，這是我們應該採取的正確方向。

Secondly, as we've all seen, this year is very much back-loaded in terms of sales. And obviously, that also results in a situation where free cash flow is following an anomalous pattern. So if both of those issues are addressed, I would expect that next year, you're going to see a cash conversion, which is much more natural than what you've seen in this year.

其次，正如大家所見，今年的銷售在時間分布上非常偏向下半年（後段）。而且顯然，這也會造成自由現金流呈現一種異常的走勢。所以如果這兩個問題都能被解決，我預期明年你會看到現金轉換率，會比今年所看到的更為自然、正常。

Yes. On the question for -- on the customer orders and why so large now. You mentioned is it fair that they're going to end up in the back of the queue, I think customers are -- the way that we interact with our customers and the transparency that we give them on our manufacturing capability, on our manufacturing plans, I don't think that give rise to a lot of fear. It is really driven by the fact that the customers have figured out that in the devices that they want to make, whether it's 7-nanometer or whether it's DRAM, 1z products, that the performance of EUV layers and the productivity that they can now count on gives them the confidence that this is the way to go. And so this is the first question that they will internally answer and then we'll share it with us. And then they come to the next question and say, and then how much do we need and what is available? And then, of course, it's -- well, it was a public knowledge where that -- what our capacity is. It's -- and EUV is very complex technology, and we also know that we're ramping a supply chain that from time to time might be a bit late, a couple of weeks late, as we have seen at the end of this year.

是的。關於——關於客戶訂單以及為什麼現在這麼大的問題。你提到是否可以說他們最後會排到隊伍後面，我認為客戶——我們與客戶互動的方式，以及我們在製造能力與製造計畫方面提供的透明度，我不認為這會引發太多恐慌。真正的驅動因素是，客戶已經弄清楚，在他們想要製造的元件中，不論是 7 奈米，或是 DRAM 的 1z 產品，EUV 層的效能以及他們現在可以依賴的生產力，讓他們有信心這是應該採取的路徑。因此，這是他們在內部首先會回答的問題，然後再與我們分享。接著他們會進入下一個問題：那我們需要多少？可供的量有多少？然後，當然——嗯——我們的產能是多少，這是公開資訊。而且 EUV 是非常複雜的技術，我們也知道我們正在讓供應鏈爬坡，而供應鏈有時可能會稍微延遲，晚一點，晚個幾週，就像我們在今年年底看到的那樣。

So this is the order. Why did they come? They come because they know that EUV will provide them with the solutions that they need, and it's going to provide them significant value. And if you listen to the customer statements, you can actually get confirmation on that. Now -- and then of course, they come to us and we're very transparent on our capacity and say, fine, if this is the EUV performance, this is our wafer start ramp plan and this is the number of tools that we need.

所以這就是訂單。他們為什麼會來下單？他們來，是因為他們知道 EUV 會提供他們所需要的解決方案，並且會為他們帶來顯著的價值。如果你聽聽客戶的說法，其實可以得到這一點的印證。現在——然後當然，他們會來找我們，而我們對自身產能非常透明，並表示：好，如果這就是 EUV 的表現，那麼這就是我們的晶圓開工量（wafer start）爬坡計畫，以及我們需要的設備數量。

Yes. You are capacity limited, let's put the order in. It's in that order and not the other way around.

是的。你們的產能受限，那就把訂單下進來。順序是這樣，而不是相反。

Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you. Operator? This concludes the ASML -- good ahead.

現在我代表 ASML，感謝各位今天與會。接線員，如果你可以正式結束這通電話，我將不勝感激。謝謝。接線員？這就結束 ASML——請繼續。

This concludes the ASML 2019 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

本次 ASML 2019 年第三季財務結果電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以掛線。

Thank you.

謝謝。