艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2019 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on July 17, 2019. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to open the question-and-answer queue. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 ASML 2019 年第二季財務業績電話會議，會議日期為 2019 年 7 月 17 日。(接線員指示) 我現在將開放問答隊列。(接線員指示)

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Go ahead, please, sir.

我現在想將電話會議交給 Skip Miller 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML.

謝謝，接線員。各位女士、先生，午安、早安。我是 Skip Miller，ASML 投資人關係副總裁。

Joining me today from ASML's headquarters in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen.

今天與我一同在荷蘭費爾德霍芬 ASML 總部出席的有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink，以及財務長 Roger Dassen。

Subject of today's call is ASML's 2019 second quarter results. Length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2019 年第二季業績。本次電話會議長度為 60 分鐘，並將依收到問題的順序進行提問。本次電話會議也將於 asml.com 透過網際網路進行即時轉播。管理層開場發言的逐字稿以及本次電話會議的重播，將在會議結束後不久於我們的網站提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during the conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位聽眾，管理層在本次電話會議中的評論將包含符合聯邦證券法意義之下的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險與不確定性。關於風險因素的討論，我建議您查閱今日新聞稿與簡報中所載的安全港聲明（可於 asml.com 取得），以及 ASML 以 Form 20-F 提交的年度報告與其他向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

接下來，我想把電話交給 Peter Wennink，請他做簡短的開場介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Good morning, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for our Q2 2019 results conference call.

謝謝你，Skip。各位女士、先生，早安、午安，感謝各位參加我們 2019 年第二季（Q2）業績電話會議。

And before we begin the question-and-answer session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the second quarter as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. And Roger will start with a review of our second quarter financial performance with some added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook.

在開始問答環節之前，Roger 和我想先就第二季提供一個概覽與一些評論，並分享我們對未來幾季的看法。Roger 將先回顧我們第二季的財務表現，並補充一些對短期展望的評論；我將以對目前商業環境及未來業務展望的補充說明來完成開場介紹。

Roger, if you will.

Roger，請。

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first highlight some of the second quarter accomplishments and then provide our guidance for the third quarter of 2019.

謝謝你，Peter，也歡迎各位。我將先重點說明第二季的一些成果，接著提供我們對 2019 年第三季的財測指引。

Q2 net sales came in at EUR 2.57 billion, within our guidance. Net system sales of EUR 1.85 billion was more weighted towards Logic at 61% with the remaining 39% from Memory, representing a similar split as the previous quarter. We reported EUV system revenue of EUR 764 million on 7 shipments, which was 1 more than guided. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 717 million, which was a bit higher than guided.

第二季（Q2）淨銷售額為 25.7 億歐元，符合我們的指引。系統淨銷售額為 18.5 億歐元，其中邏輯（Logic）占比 61%，其餘 39% 來自記憶體（Memory），與前一季的分布相近。我們認列 EUV 系統營收 7.64 億歐元，出貨 7 台，比指引多 1 台。本季裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）銷售額為 7.17 億歐元，略高於指引。

Gross margin for the quarter was 43.0%, which was above guidance due to better EUV manufacturing results and higher field upgrades sales, more than compensating the negative mix effect in comparison to Q1.

本季毛利率為 43.0%，高於指引，主要因 EUV 製造結果優於預期以及現場升級（field upgrades）銷售較高，足以抵銷相較第一季（Q1）不利的產品組合影響。

Overall R&D and SG&A expenses came in as guided with R&D expense at EUR 487 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 123 million.

整體研發（R&D）與銷售、一般及行政（SG&A）費用符合指引，其中研發費用為 4.87 億歐元，SG&A 費用為 1.23 億歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. EUR 884 million was paid as dividend and EUR 15 million worth of shares were repurchased in Q2. We ended last quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 2.34 billion.

接著看資產負債表。第二季支付股利 8.84 億歐元，並回購價值 1,500 萬歐元的股份。上季末我們的現金、約當現金與短期投資餘額為 23.4 億歐元。

Moving to the order book. Q2 system bookings came in at EUR 2.83 billion, which was 100% up from Q1 bookings, mainly driven by EUV where we took 10 new orders in the quarter. Logic order intake was 67% of total value with the remaining 33% from Memory, again reflecting the strong Logic demand expected this year.

接著看訂單。第二季系統接單金額為 28.3 億歐元，較第一季接單增加 100%，主要由 EUV 帶動，本季我們取得 10 筆新訂單。邏輯（Logic）接單占總價值的 67%，其餘 33% 來自記憶體（Memory），再次反映今年預期強勁的邏輯需求。

Net income in Q2 was EUR 476 million, representing 18.5% of net sales and an EPS of EUR 1.13. This was positively impacted by higher gross margin and a onetime tax benefit.

第二季淨利為 4.76 億歐元，相當於淨銷售額的 18.5%，每股盈餘（EPS）為 1.13 歐元。此結果受較高毛利率與一次性稅務利益的正面影響。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the third quarter of 2019.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2019 年第三季的預期。

We expect Q3 total net sales of around EUR 3.0 billion. Our total net sales forecast for Q3 includes around EUR 750 million of EUV system revenue on 7 planned shipments. We expect our Q3 Installed Base Management revenue to be around EUR 700 million.

我們預期第三季（Q3）總淨銷售額約為 30 億歐元。我們對第三季總淨銷售額的預估包含約 7.5 億歐元的 EUV 系統營收，計畫出貨 7 台。我們預期第三季裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）營收約為 7 億歐元。

Gross margin for Q3 is expected to be between 43% and 44%, which is slightly higher than Q2. The expected improvement in margin due to expected higher volume will be partially offset by customer configuration mix. We continue to expect significant improvements in gross margin in the fourth quarter driven by higher system sales, improved product mix, increased field upgrades, shipment of higher-margin NXE:3400C systems as well as contribution of EUV service revenue. This will enable us to achieve a gross margin for Q4, which approaches our 2020 target of over 50%.

第三季毛利率預期介於 43% 至 44%，略高於第二季。由於預期出貨量提高所帶來的毛利率改善，將部分被客戶配置組合所抵銷。我們仍預期第四季毛利率將顯著改善，動能來自更高的系統銷售、改善的產品組合、更多現場升級、出貨毛利率較高的 NXE:3400C 系統，以及 EUV 服務營收的貢獻。這將使我們在第四季達到接近 2020 年超過 50% 的毛利率目標。

The expected R&D expenses for Q3 are around EUR 495 million and SG&A is expected to come in at around EUR 125 million. Our estimated 2019 annualized effective tax rate is around 9% because of a onetime tax benefit in 2019. We still expect our long-term effective tax rate to be 14%.

第三季預期研發費用約為 4.95 億歐元，SG&A 預期約為 1.25 億歐元。由於 2019 年有一次性稅務利益，我們估計 2019 年年化有效稅率約為 9%。我們仍預期長期有效稅率為 14%。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter.

接下來，我想把電話交回給 Peter。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger as highlighted, although it was another modest, but decent quarter, results came in at above guidance, and we expect further strengthening in the coming quarters. The macroeconomic environment continues to provide market volatility, which translates to a level of uncertainty in the semiconductor industry. The demand for Memory remains soft while excess inventories are being worked down in the supply chain. And some of the second half Memory demand risk that we discussed last quarter has meanwhile materialized and resulted in system push outs of this year into 2020. This Memory weakness is being compensated by strengthening of Logic demand such that our view of 2019 total sales remains unchanged. As such, we expect 2019 to be a growth year with sales and profitability increasing throughout 2019.

謝謝你，Roger。如 Roger 所強調，雖然這又是一個溫和但表現不錯的季度，結果仍高於指引，我們也預期未來幾季將進一步走強。總體經濟環境持續帶來市場波動，進而使半導體產業存在一定程度的不確定性。記憶體需求仍然疲弱，供應鏈正在去化過剩庫存。我們在上季討論的下半年記憶體需求風險，其中一部分已經實現，並導致原訂今年的系統出貨延後至 2020 年。這項記憶體疲弱正由邏輯需求的增強所抵銷，因此我們對 2019 年總銷售額的看法維持不變。因此，我們預期 2019 年將是成長的一年，銷售與獲利能力將在 2019 年持續提升。

In Memory, the market continues to digest the high level of capacity additions that are put in place over the past few years. The digestion started last year was exacerbated by decelerating macroeconomic growth. This will likely extend throughout most of this year. Based on lower demands from our Memory customers, we now see our Memory sales down around 30% year-on-year versus 20% indicated last quarter.

在記憶體方面，市場仍在消化過去幾年所新增的大量產能。這一波消化自去年開始，並因總體經濟成長放緩而加劇。這種情況很可能會延續到今年的大部分時間。基於記憶體客戶需求降低，我們目前預期記憶體銷售年減約 30%，相較於上季所指出的年減 20%。

As discussed last quarter, we see 2 contributing components with Memory demand this year. And we have characterized 1 as strategic, which we expect will happen largely independent of market conditions, which includes both early Chinese domestic Memory ramp and EUV for DRAM. This component is valued at approximately at EUR 1 billion, which we believe has low risk of pushouts.

如同上季所討論的，我們看到今年記憶體需求有2個貢獻組成部分。其中我們將1個界定為策略性需求，我們預期其發生在很大程度上將不受市場狀況影響，包含中國國內記憶體的早期擴產爬坡以及DRAM的EUV。此一組成部分的價值約為10億歐元，我們認為延後（pushout）的風險較低。

The second is the bit supply component, which we previously indicated as having a higher risk. And if you remove the strategic component from our estimated 2019 Memory demand, we get a lithography spend for Memory bit supply of around EUR 2.1 billion, which is around 45% lower than the comparable spend in 2018. And as we have already shipped around EUR 1.2 billion to Memory bit supply the first half of the year, it leaves around EUR 900 million in the second half of the year targeted for Memory bit supply, which has an inherently higher risk profile than the strategic investments in Memory.

第二個是位元供給（bit supply）組成部分，我們先前指出其風險較高。若將策略性組成部分自我們估計的2019年記憶體需求中扣除，則用於記憶體位元供給的微影支出約為21億歐元，較2018年可比支出低約45%。由於我們在上半年已向記憶體位元供給出貨約12億歐元，因此下半年剩餘約9億歐元目標用於記憶體位元供給；相較於記憶體的策略性投資，這部分本質上具有較高的風險輪廓。

On the positive side though, our Memory customers continue to indicate they are making significant reductions in wafer output to an extent we haven't seen in previous downturns. This reduction in spend and lower wafer output will help in reaching a more normalized supply/demand balance.

不過正面的一點是，我們的記憶體客戶持續表示，他們正在大幅削減晶圓產出，幅度之大是我們在以往景氣下行時未曾見過的。這些支出縮減與較低的晶圓產出，將有助於供需回到較正常化的平衡。

Logic will clearly be our growth driver in 2019 with the majority of the demand linked to new technology transitions and advanced node additions. We are seeing increased demand from our customers driven by accelerated ramp of 7-nanometer node and beyond, supporting amongst others the introduction of 5G technology. With this strengthening, we now expect our Logic business to be up around 65% for the year relative to last year, which is 15 percentage points up from the 50% that we communicated last quarter.

2019年邏輯（Logic）將明確成為我們的成長驅動力，多數需求與新技術轉換及先進節點擴增相關。我們看到客戶需求增加，主要由7奈米節點及更先進節點的加速爬坡所帶動，並支援包括5G技術導入等。隨著此一走強，我們目前預期今年邏輯業務相較去年將成長約65%，較我們上季溝通的50%上調15個百分點。

Along with increased system demand in the second half, we also expect stronger demand from field upgrades, which translates to low single-digit percentage growth of Installed Base Management revenue.

除了下半年系統需求增加之外，我們也預期現場升級（field upgrades）需求更強，這將帶動已裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）營收呈現低個位數百分比成長。

Now let me turn to the ASML product side and update you on our EUV business. In EUV, we recently demonstrated more than 170 wafers per hour on our first NXE:3400C system. We have also run more than 2,000 wafers a per day and the customer Memory production conditions and this is a significant milestone and that it confirms the required capability for Memory production, which means that our focus will be on stability and uptime to secure our customers ramp plans. We plan to ship the first NXE:3400C system in Q3, with a higher number of C systems planned in Q4.

接下來我轉到ASML產品面，向各位更新我們的EUV業務。在EUV方面，我們最近在第一台NXE:3400C系統上展示了每小時超過170片晶圓的產能。我們也在客戶的記憶體量產條件下，單日跑超過2,000片晶圓；這是一個重要里程碑，並確認了記憶體量產所需的能力，這也意味著我們將把重點放在穩定性與稼動率（uptime），以確保客戶的爬坡計畫。我們計畫在第三季出貨第一台NXE:3400C系統，並在第四季規劃出貨更多C系統。

And as Roger mentioned, we shipped 7 systems in Q2, 1 more than guided and received 10 orders. As a confirmation of the potential of the NXE:3400C for cost-effective high-volume memory production, we received a number of EUV orders this quarter for systems slated for use in Memory. The customers are aggressively bringing new technology to the market, which reflects on the solid demand for 30 systems this year. Demand for NXE:3400C systems has proven to be high. Our 2019 shipment plan is significantly skewed towards the second half of the year and to Q4 specifically. Next to the back loaded plan, we're also transitioning to a new scanner model, like I said earlier, the 3400C, which suppliers need to ramp their production. Taking both of these into account, there is a risk of a few systems planned for Q4 moving into the first weeks of 2020. However, this risk has been taken into account in our comments regarding our full year 2019 sales outlook.

如Roger所提到的，我們在第二季出貨7套系統，比指引多1套，並取得10筆訂單。為了確認NXE:3400C在具成本效益的記憶體高量產方面的潛力，我們本季收到多筆EUV訂單，這些系統預計用於記憶體。客戶正積極將新技術推向市場，反映在今年30套系統的穩健需求上。NXE:3400C系統的需求已證明相當強勁。我們2019年的出貨計畫明顯偏向下半年，尤其是第四季。除了出貨後移的計畫之外，我們也正如先前所說，轉換到新的掃描機型3400C，供應商需要提升其產能爬坡。綜合這兩點考量，存在少數原訂第四季出貨的系統延後到2020年最初幾週的風險。不過，這項風險已納入我們對2019年全年銷售展望的評論之中。

In any case, strong demand for NXE:3400C as well as the continued progress in the ramp up of our production capacity is clear.

無論如何，NXE:3400C的強勁需求，以及我們產能擴充爬坡的持續進展，都是明確可見的。

In summary, despite uncertainty in the current environment, we continue to see a stronger second half with the strengthening of both sales and profitability quarter-on-quarter. Logic will be the primary driver of growth this year and demand has further strengthened from last quarter as customers accelerated ramp of their advanced nodes. Memory demand has more uncertainty and has further weakened since last quarter. However, as mentioned before, the stronger Logic demand compensates for the weaker Memory demand. And in total, our overall sales outlook for the year, as I mentioned before, remains unchanged, and we expect 2019 to be another year of growth.

總結而言，儘管目前環境存在不確定性，我們仍持續看到下半年更強勁，銷售與獲利能力將逐季走強。邏輯將是今年成長的主要驅動力，且相較上季，隨著客戶加速其先進節點爬坡，需求進一步增強。記憶體需求的不確定性較高，且自上季以來進一步走弱。然而，如先前所述，更強的邏輯需求可彌補較弱的記憶體需求。整體而言，我們今年的整體銷售展望如我先前所提仍維持不變，我們預期2019年將是另一個成長年度。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

接下來，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. Beforehand, I would like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to 1 question with 1 short follow-up, if necessary. This will allow us to get in -- to get to as many callers as possible.

謝謝你，Roger和Peter。各位女士先生，接線員稍後將說明問答環節的流程。在此之前，我想請各位盡量每人限制1個問題，必要時可再加1個簡短追問。這將讓我們能夠讓——讓更多來電者有機會提問。

Now operator, could you have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

那麼接線員，請先給出最後的說明，然後請進行第一個問題，謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Mr. Mitch Steves, RBC Capital Markets.

（接線員指示）第一個問題來自RBC Capital Markets的Mitch Steves先生。

Mitch Steves from RBC. I just have 2 quick ones. First one is on EUV. You guys talked about 33 to 35 units for 2020. I am just curious to how much of that is network related to EUV and is that still on track? And then secondly on the Memory side, I think you guys said that it should be down 30% versus 20%. Was that Memory in general or was that ASML-related revenue? I just want to be clear about that.

我是RBC的Mitch Steves。我有兩個簡短問題。第一個是關於EUV。你們提到2020年為33到35台。我想了解其中有多少是與EUV的網路（network）相關，這部分是否仍按計畫進行？第二個是關於記憶體，我想你們說應該會下滑30%而不是20%。那是指整體記憶體市場，還是ASML相關營收？我想確認清楚。

Yes. On the last one, it's '19 -- the 30% down is the total Memory sales of ASML into the Memory segment as compared to 2018. And so that's what the 30% meant. On EUV, 30 to 35, yes, that's our shipment capacity next year. Memory related, interesting question that is. Like I said in earlier calls, Memory has clearly given us a kind of a breakeven point where they can move into EUV as it relates to DRAM production and has to do with the productivity. And we gave a target of 2,000 wafers per day. Now we have shown in our factory under Memory production conditions that we can get over 2,000 wafers per day. So it's really about the uptime and the availability of the system. Now we're shipping the first C system this quarter, we will install it. So by the end of the year, we will be able to see really some, let's say, you could say, more marathon evidence of the 2,000 wafers per day. That will drive the demand for EUV next year. Having said that, I strongly believe that 2020 will be dominated by Logic in terms of EUV. It means the 3400C and I think currently when we talk to our Logic customers, as a very clear roadmap, a path into 2024, 7-nanometer and beyond. So no matter how you look at it, it's clearly an upside DRAM for next year, but the majority will still be different by the Logic demands from our customers.

是的。先回答最後一個問題，這裡的「2019年下滑30%」是指ASML對記憶體領域（Memory segment）的記憶體總銷售額，相較2018年的變化。所以30%就是這個意思。至於EUV，30到35台，是的，那是我們明年的出貨產能。至於與記憶體相關的部分，這確實是個有意思的問題。如我在先前的電話會議中所說，記憶體端已經給了我們一個可視為損益兩平點的門檻，使其能在DRAM量產上導入EUV，這與生產力有關。我們給出的目標是每日2,000片晶圓。現在我們已在工廠、在記憶體量產條件下證明可以達到每日超過2,000片晶圓。因此關鍵其實在於系統的稼動率（uptime）與可用性（availability）。我們本季將出貨第一台C系統並完成安裝。因此到年底，我們將能看到一些真正的——可以說是更長時間、像馬拉松式的——每日2,000片晶圓的證據。這將帶動明年對EUV的需求。話雖如此，我仍堅信2020年的EUV需求將以邏輯為主。也就是3400C；而且我認為目前我們與邏輯客戶討論時，他們有非常清晰的路線圖，通往2024年、7奈米及更先進節點。所以不論怎麼看，明年DRAM顯然有上行空間，但大多數仍將由客戶的邏輯需求所主導。

Next question comes from Mr. David Mulholland.

下一個問題來自 David Mulholland 先生。

It's David from UBS. Just 2 quick ones. Firstly on the EUV bookings in the quarter. I am kind of following up from last question. But can you -- also can you help us understand how that breaks down between Memory and Logic in terms of what you're seeing so far? And is it fair to presume those are all 3400C? And then just secondly, I think last quarter you commented that EUV bookings this year would be quite back-end-loaded. So with you seeing 10 already in Q2 is quite solid. But is it fair to say then we shouldn't expect too much in Q3, that it will take that 3400C to be in the field to then get more bookings in Q4? Or how should we think about the phasing?

我是 UBS 的 David。我有兩個簡短問題。首先關於本季的 EUV 訂單（bookings）。我算是延續上一個問題。但你們能否也協助我們理解，到目前為止你們看到的情況中，這些訂單在記憶體（Memory）與邏輯（Logic）之間的分布如何？另外，是否可以合理推定這些全部都是 3400C？第二點，我記得上季你們提到今年的 EUV 訂單會相當偏向下半年。所以你們在第二季就已經看到 10 台，算是相當不錯。但是否可以說我們不該期待第三季太多，必須等到 3400C 在客戶端現場（in the field）之後，第四季才會有更多訂單？或者我們應該如何看待訂單時程的分布（phasing）？

So just a clarification question, David. You are really talking about the bookings now, the -- let's say, the bookings sequence in Q3 and Q4 going forward. That's what you mean? Is that correct?

David，我先確認一下。你主要是在問接下來第三季與第四季的訂單，也就是訂單的節奏（sequence）？你的意思是這個嗎？對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Yes, on the EUV bookings, I think the majority of the bookings that we shipped in Q2 are for Logic. There are a few systems, which are slated for Memory production, which is understandable because you want -- given the current state of the capability performance, it is logical that you would see some of those systems being shipped to go into a DRAM pilot [low] production. So the majority will be for our Logic customers. We had a good order intake in Q2. It's my expectation that, that will continue in Q3 and Q4. Because like I said, we have a production capacity actually between 30 and 35 units. And I think by the end of the year, we'll be fully booked for those tools because I do believe also that by the end of the year, we'll be able to actually show in longer test, marathon test that the DRAM conditions that we were able to show here at ASML were not a unique event and we'll be able to basically replicate that. So I don't think there will be an order low. I think it will be a gradual intake of orders towards the end of the year. Like we saw last year, last year we said the same thing. By the end of 2018, we'll have 2019 booked. It's my expectation that we'll see the same thing by the end of this year.

好的。是的，關於 EUV 訂單，我認為我們在第二季出貨的訂單中，大多數是用於邏輯（Logic）。也有少數系統是規劃用於記憶體量產，這可以理解，因為你會希望——考量目前能力與效能的狀態，看到部分系統被出貨去做 DRAM 試產（pilot）[低]量產是合理的。所以大多數會是給我們的邏輯客戶。我們在第二季的接單表現不錯。我預期第三季與第四季會持續如此。因為如我所說，我們的產能其實在 30 到 35 台之間。而且我認為到年底，這些設備會被完全訂滿，因為我也相信到年底，我們將能在更長時間的測試、馬拉松測試中證明：我們在 ASML 這裡展示的 DRAM 條件並非一次性的特殊事件，而是可以基本上重現。所以我不認為會出現訂單低谷。我認為會是逐步地在年底前持續接單。就像去年一樣，去年我們也說過同樣的話。到 2018 年底，我們會把 2019 年的產能訂滿。我預期今年年底也會看到同樣的情況。

The next question comes from Mr. Mehdi Hosseini.

下一個問題來自 Mehdi Hosseini 先生。

Just 2 follow-ups, Peter, regarding your confidence on the Q4. I'm just curious, it seems to me that your confidence comes from the scenarios that you have contemplated. For instance, if the supply chain causes some delay in the shipment of 3400C, I assume that you have emergent tools that you can ship, and therefore, is that what gives you the confidence for Q4 shipment? And I have a follow-up.

Peter，我有兩個追問，關於你對第四季的信心。我只是好奇，看起來你的信心來自你們所考量的各種情境。例如，如果供應鏈導致 3400C 的出貨有些延遲，我猜你們有可立即應變的工具（emergent tools）可以出貨，因此這就是你對第四季出貨有信心的原因嗎？我還有一個追問。

Yes. I mean you can advance with the follow-up because you're right. I mean you gave me the answer and it was -- indeed that's what it is.

是的。我的意思是，你可以繼續追問，因為你說得沒錯。你其實已經把答案講出來了——確實就是那樣。

Sure. And then if there is -- if there are a few systems that are pushed to 2020, then is that going to increase the 30 to 35 system planned to be shipped next year? Or how should we think about the targets for next year?

好的。那如果有——如果有幾套系統被延後到 2020 年，那是否會提高你們明年計畫出貨的 30 到 35 台？或者我們應該如何看待明年的目標？

Yes. I think we have this -- when we look at the production capacity 30 to 35, that is basically on the 12-month period. So if we have to shift few of those systems into January of 2020, they naturally would come on top of those 30 to 35. Under the assumption that we cannot have that same kind of supply chain risk at the end of 2020, which you could argue, there's a lot more learning curve so we should be able to keep the production schedule or the supply chain schedule better than we could in 2019 because we're introducing a new machine there. So yes, normally, it will be on top. But like I said, 30 to 35 is still a range of 5 tools. So I would stick to the 30 to 35.

是的。我認為我們在看 30 到 35 台的產能時，基本上是以 12 個月期間來衡量。所以如果我們必須把其中幾套系統移到 2020 年 1 月，它們自然會疊加在那 30 到 35 台之上。前提是我們不會在 2020 年底面臨同樣類型的供應鏈風險；你也可以說，因為學習曲線累積更多，我們應該能比 2019 年更好地維持生產排程或供應鏈排程，因為我們在 2019 年導入了一台新機種。所以是的，通常會加在上面。但如我所說，30 到 35 仍然是一個 5 台設備的區間。所以我會維持 30 到 35 的說法。

Okay. Now in terms of the supply/demand for Memory, it has continued to weaken. What if it remains weak into 2020? I remember from the November Analyst Day, you guided to 15%, 20% DRAM bit production growth and NAND bit production growth of 35% to 40%. But what if we started 2020 very far from those targets, would -- is there also a sensitivity to your 2020 revenue target where -- if DRAM -- I'm sorry, if Memory were to remain weak, there will be other areas that would help offset that?

好的。那就記憶體的供需而言，它持續轉弱。如果這種疲弱延續到 2020 年呢？我記得在 11 月的分析師日，你們指引 DRAM 位元產量成長 15%、20%，以及 NAND 位元產量成長 35% 到 40%。但如果我們在 2020 年開始時離那些目標差很遠，那——你們的 2020 年營收目標是否也有敏感度？也就是——如果 DRAM——抱歉，如果記憶體持續疲弱，是否會有其他領域能幫忙抵消？

Yes. I think there's a lot of questions in one question. But let me answer this. I mean 2020 where we gave you the 2020 number, there was basically a mid-market scenario that we gave you, yes. And a mid-market scenario, like you said, that had a certain percentage growth on Memory, as I mentioned, 20% and 35%. And that is indeed the case. But what we're seeing today is also that Logic is a bit stronger than we anticipated. So that could be a compensating factor. But all in all, I think it's too early to make an educated guess on whether 2020 will be a moderate market or will be a low market. I think it's too early. I can only say that where we see Memory is today with indeed significantly lower growth, bit growth numbers than the ones you mentioned and the fact that our customers are cutting 45% of the their -- at least litho purchases for bit capacity. And they are lowering their wafer starts, I mean something will happen. So this is -- so it's too early. But I think the trends are clearly such that I believe customers are doing everything, try to rebalance the supply and the demand. And whether that will be at the end of the year, early 2020, it's simply too early to say.

是的。我想這一個問題裡包含了很多問題。但我這樣回答。我們給你們的 2020 年數字，基本上是基於一個中性市場（mid-market）的情境，是的。而中性市場情境，如你所說，記憶體會有一定比例的成長，我提到的是 20% 與 35%。確實如此。但我們今天看到的是，邏輯（Logic）比我們原先預期的更強。所以那可能是一個抵消因素。但總體而言，我認為現在要對 2020 年會是溫和市場還是低迷市場做出有根據的判斷，還太早。我覺得太早了。我只能說，我們目前看到的記憶體確實是顯著較低的位元成長數字，低於你提到的那些，而且我們的客戶正在把用於位元產能的——至少是微影（litho）採購——削減 45%。他們也在降低晶圓開工（wafer starts），我的意思是，總會發生一些變化。所以——所以現在還太早。但我認為趨勢很明顯：我相信客戶正在做一切努力，試圖重新平衡供給與需求。而這會在年底、還是 2020 年初發生，現在真的還太早下定論。

The next question comes from Mr. C.J. Muse.

下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 先生。

Evercore ISI. I guess, Peter, very encouraging to see the DRAM EUV orders in the quarter. I'm curious if you could speak a little bit about what the total cost of ownership requirements are as we move to 1z and then 1 alpha. Timeline of hitting those requirements that you see? And if you're able to hit them, what are you thinking about layer count as we transition to 1 alpha?

Evercore ISI。我想，Peter，看到本季 DRAM 的 EUV 訂單非常令人鼓舞。我好奇你是否能談談，當我們推進到 1z 以及接著到 1 alpha 時，總持有成本（total cost of ownership, TCO）的要求會是什麼？你們認為達成這些要求的時間點（timeline）如何？以及如果你們能達成，你們在轉向 1 alpha 時，對層數（layer count）有什麼看法？

Yes. I think it's an interesting question. I mean we're really looking at the introduction time of EUV in DRAM. And it is driven by -- I think it's just the economics. And like I said in previous quarters, also it's not only the economics, I think we also get a very clear feedback that the device performance using EUV is also significantly better. So it's a combination of the 2. And it will be an introduction time whether it's 1z or it's another alphabetical letter, it doesn't matter. At that moment in time, EUV is there to stay, yes. And as you pointed out, going forward with those next generations, after the introduction node, there will be more layers added to EUV. And we currently think about you could -- whether it's alpha or whether it's gamma, whether it's the 3 to 4, but even 5 could -- is something that could happen.

是的。我認為這是一個有趣的問題。我的意思是，我們其實是在看EUV在DRAM中的導入時點。而這是由——我認為主要就是經濟性所驅動。而且如我在前幾季所說，這不僅僅是經濟性，我想我們也收到非常明確的回饋：使用EUV的元件效能也顯著更好。所以這是兩者的結合。至於導入時點是1z還是其他字母節點，其實並不重要。在那個時間點，EUV就會成為長期存在的技術，是的。而且如你所指出的，往後在那些下一代技術中，在導入節點之後，會有更多層會加入EUV。我們目前的看法是——你可以——不論是alpha或gamma，不論是3到4層，甚至5層——這都是可能發生的。

Very helpful. And then if you could speak to the Bloomberg business you're seeing from Logic in the second half. How sustainable is that beyond Q4? And then as part of that considering you're likely building emergent tools for Memory and then having to build for Logic, are there any negative gross margin implications from that change over?

非常有幫助。接著，想請你談談你們在下半年看到來自邏輯（Logic）的Bloomberg業務。這在Q4之後的可持續性如何？另外，考量到你們可能正在為記憶體（Memory）打造新興（emergent）工具，之後又必須為邏輯打造，這種轉換是否會對毛利率帶來任何負面影響？

Could you elaborate a bit on your last part of the question?

你能否就你問題的最後一部分再多說明一點？

Obviously, Logic emergent tools, higher speed, better gross margins. But I presume you were building initially emergent for Memory and now retrofitting to Logic. Are there any negative implications to gross margins because of that?

顯然，邏輯用的新興工具速度更快、毛利率更好。但我推測你們一開始是為記憶體打造新興工具，現在再改裝以適用於邏輯。這是否會對毛利率造成任何負面影響？

No. No. That question on your -- well, the answer to the question -- to the last question is indeed, no. There are real no implications. Is Logic sustainable in Q4? Well, to be honest, I think the way that we look at it after having discussions with our customers, I think it is that demand that we're currently seeing in the second half of the year is incremental. I don't think it's a pull in. I think that the majority of what we're seeing is incremental. And these are not borrowing from 2020. So in that sense, I think it's much more sustainable.

不會。不會。你那個問題——嗯，對那個最後問題的答案——確實是不會。完全沒有任何影響。邏輯在Q4是否可持續？坦白說，我認為我們在與客戶討論後的看法是：我們目前在下半年看到的需求是增量需求。我不認為這是提前拉貨。我認為我們看到的大多數都是增量。而且這些並不是從2020年借來的需求。因此從這個角度看，我認為它更具可持續性。

The next question comes from Mr. Janardan Menon.

下一個問題來自Janardan Menon先生。

It's Janardan from Liberum. I just wanted to dive in a bit into the gross margins. You said your gross margins in Q3 were affected by some customization work. Would you be able to give us any number as to -- in percentage terms as to what that hit is? And you're also suggesting that your gross margin in Q4 is likely to be quite close to sort of the 50% range, the high 40s. Would you be shipping any 3400Bs in that quarter? Or would that shipment be entirely 3400Cs? And one small one, if I might push through is if DRAM were to improve, I mean DRAM were to start adopting EUV after the first runs of the 3400C and they do come in with orders, would you be able to accommodate more than 35 machines for next year? Or is that sort of an upper limit of what you can do with your current capacity?

我是Liberum的Janardan。我想更深入問一下毛利率。你提到Q3的毛利率受到一些客製化工作的影響。你能否給我們一個數字——以百分比來看——那個影響幅度是多少？你也表示Q4的毛利率可能會非常接近50%左右，也就是高40%區間。那一季你們會出貨任何3400B嗎？還是出貨會完全是3400C？另外還有一個小問題，如果我可以再追問：如果DRAM開始改善，也就是在3400C首批運行後開始採用EUV並帶來訂單，你們明年是否能夠容納超過35台機器？還是以你們目前的產能來看，這大概就是上限？

A couple of comments on the gross margin. So in terms of composition, Q3 resembles Q2 quite a bit, so in terms of sales mix. So that's why the basic point of departure there is kind of similar. It will be higher, right. So the total volume will be higher, and therefore, factory loading will be higher that has an uptick in gross margins. And then we also said that in the mix, the configuration mix, Q3 is a little less favorable, if you like, than Q2. But that's minimal and just based on the configuration of the specific systems that we provide. And that's the reason why Q3 is a little bit higher than Q2, but not dramatically so.

關於毛利率有幾點說明。就組成而言，Q3在銷售組合上與Q2相當類似。所以基本的起點大致相同。不過會更高，對吧。總出貨量會更高，因此工廠負載會更高，這會帶動毛利率上升。另外我們也提到，在組合中、也就是配置組合方面，Q3相較Q2稍微不那麼有利。但那影響很小，只是基於我們所提供特定系統的配置差異。這也是為什麼Q3比Q2略高，但不會高很多。

If we then move to Q4, I think you will see that the company is really going to run -- is going to fire on all cylinders. So then you really have the impact of a number of structural developments that are going to occur. First is the 3400C, to your point, Q4 will be -- still be a mix of B and C models, but the C model will be dominant in that total mix. But so you will have the increased benefit of the 3400C pricing and margin. At that point in time, we would also see that the service revenue on EUV will go up and service margin will go up. For Q4, we also predict better field upgrades, which is business that has a solid [positive] gross margin. We would also see higher factory loading as a result of the significantly higher volume that we have there. And Q4, as a result of all of the things that we just discussed, also has a very significant portion of emergent in there. So at that stage, we have 5 very significant developments that indeed will position us such that we are going to approach the over 50% guidance or indication that we've given for gross margin in 2020.

如果我們再看Q4，我認為你會看到公司真的會——會全速運轉。因此你會真正看到一些將要發生的結構性發展所帶來的影響。第一是3400C，如你所說，Q4仍會是B與C機型的混合，但整體組合中C機型會占主導。因此你會享受到3400C定價與毛利率提升所帶來的更大效益。在那個時間點，我們也會看到EUV的服務營收上升，服務毛利也會上升。對Q4而言，我們也預期現場升級（field upgrades）會更好，這是一項具有穩健[正向]毛利率的業務。由於出貨量顯著提高，我們也會看到更高的工廠負載。此外，Q4因為我們剛才討論的所有因素，也會包含相當顯著比例的新興（emergent）業務。因此在那個階段，我們有5項非常重要的發展，確實會讓我們朝向2020年毛利率超過50%的指引或說法邁進。

Peter, I think there was 1 question on the...

Peter，我想還有1個問題是關於……

Yes. I think on the capacity, I think it'll be very hard stretched to get out more than 35 systems. I think the 30 to 35 is a little bit depending on the speed of the ramp and the issues that we are encountering on the new model, the C. We're sticking to 30 to 35. I think 35 is the maximum we can do next year.

是的。我想關於產能，要再多出貨超過35套系統會非常吃緊。30到35之間會有些差異，取決於新機型C的爬坡速度，以及我們在新機型上遇到的問題。我们仍維持30到35的範圍。我認為明年35是我們能做到的最大值。

The next question comes from Mr. Andrew Gardiner.

下一個問題來自Andrew Gardiner先生。

It's Andrew from Barclays. Peter, if you could just go back to some of the comments you were making on Logic, in particular around the fourth quarter and into 2020. I can understand visibility is less so on the Memory side, but it seems much greater in terms of Logic. If that 4Q increase is indeed incremental rather than pull forward, how are you thinking about Logic demand into 2020 given the continued move down the process node ladder by foundry and microprocessors? Any further insight there would be helpful.

我是Barclays的Andrew。Peter，如果可以的話，想請你回到你先前對邏輯（Logic）的一些評論，特別是關於第四季以及進入2020年的部分。我理解在記憶體（Memory）端的能見度較低，但在邏輯端似乎高得多。如果第四季的增加確實是增量而非提前拉貨，那麼在晶圓代工與微處理器持續往更先進製程節點推進的情況下，你們如何看待2020年的邏輯需求？若能提供更多洞見將很有幫助。

Yes. I think answering that question, I also want to go back to last year. We basically said EUV has turned the corner. And I said that I think on earlier occasions that I believe 2018 was a very significant year for a simple fact that the confidence that our customers had in EUV as the key enabler for next generation device innovations, that, that confidence got to a much higher level. Now with the 3400C and the results that we're seeing now, I think that has only strengthened.

是的。在回答這個問題時，我也想回到去年。我們基本上說過EUV已經跨過轉折點。而且我在更早的場合也說過，我相信2018年非常關鍵，原因很簡單：客戶對EUV作為下一代元件創新的關鍵使能技術的信心，提升到了更高的水準。現在有了3400C以及我們目前看到的結果，我認為這只會進一步強化。

So when you look at the road maps that our customers are now presenting to us, very clearly to see an acceleration. And you can't imagine that. You can't imagine that, that there are -- if you look at the end markets, which is not only high-power compute in the mobile market, but it is much wide (technical difficulty) are actually increasing, looking at a competitive edge in a growing market. It's much wider application space. And I think this is what drives the road maps of our customers. And actually the road maps of our customers are more aggressive because of EUV and because that it works, I mean they see the results today. So this is why I believe that what we're currently seeing I mean is incremental and I think has basically a runway. This is -- and it makes sense. If you look at where they are, they have a production technology that they can apply in terms of the innovation of the next generation nodes that their customers need. Where is the -- I think it is the more aggressive road maps that our customers are showing as our underpinning why I believe this is more sustainable.

因此，當你看我們客戶現在向我們提出的產品路線圖時，很清楚可以看到正在加速。而你很難想像。你很難想像的是——如果你看終端市場，不僅是行動市場中的高功率運算，而且範圍更廣（技術難度）其實正在提高，在成長中的市場裡尋求競爭優勢。應用空間要廣得多。我認為這正是驅動我們客戶路線圖的原因。而且實際上，由於EUV、而且它確實可行——我的意思是，他們今天就看得到成果——我們客戶的路線圖更為積極。所以這就是為什麼我相信我們目前看到的——我的意思是——是增量性的，而且我認為基本上還有很長的跑道。這是——而且這是合理的。如果你看他們所處的位置，他們已經有一項量產技術，可以用來推動下一代節點所需的創新，而那正是他們的客戶所需要的。所以我認為——我們客戶所展現的更積極的路線圖，是我相信這更具可持續性的根本支撐。

The next question comes from Mr. Joe Quatrochi.

下一個問題來自Joe Quatrochi先生。

It's Wells Fargo. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the demand you're seeing in China. And maybe can you help us understand as part of the -- in the Memory side, EUR 1 billion of strategic revenue that you expect to recognize this year, how much of that has been recognized this year? And then how do we think about the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China maybe impacting the timing of equipment installations there?

我是Wells Fargo的。我想請你談談你們在中國看到的需求情況。另外，能否幫我們理解一下——在記憶體業務方面，你們預期今年將認列的10億歐元策略性營收，其中有多少已在今年認列？然後，我們該如何看待美中貿易談判可能對當地設備安裝時點造成的影響？

Yes. I'll just make some comments on the -- I'm just writing down your questions. Yes, I think on the Memory side and especially China, I mean you have to realize that these are greenfield companies creating greenfield fabs, ramping their first nodes, their first device generations. And they need a certain level of output capacity that they need to put in place. That's happening this year. That's very strategic, that will happen. And of the EUR 1 billion, I mean half is China EUV roughly. And it doesn't matter that much or how it spread over the year. But that's roughly what it is and that is just happening. I mean it's -- we're not -- that's not waning, that's not increasing, it's just execution according to plan like we said last quarter.

好的。我先就——我正在把你的問題記下來——做一些評論。是的，我認為在記憶體端、尤其是在中國，你必須了解，這些是綠地公司在建綠地晶圓廠，爬坡他們的第一個節點、第一代器件。他們需要建立一定水準的產出產能。這件事今年正在發生。這非常具有策略性，而且會發生。至於這10億歐元，我的意思是，大約一半是中國的EUV。而它在一年之中如何分布其實沒那麼重要。但大致就是這樣，而且這正在發生。我的意思是——我們沒有——這沒有在減弱，也沒有在增加，只是如同我們上季所說，按計畫執行。

And I think the trade negotiations, they are what they are. And currently, there is no limit on what we can ship to China, which is basically DPV. This is 15-year-old technology and we've been shipping that for a long time, more than 10 years to China and that's what we still do. So I don't know where trade negotiations will end up. And I think we are in a state where we know what's going on, but business as usual. Our customers want the machines, we're able and capable. And we are allowed to ship those systems, so we will.

至於貿易談判，它就是它目前的樣子。而目前，我們能運往中國的產品沒有任何限制，基本上是DPV。這是15年前的技術，我們很長一段時間都在出貨，超過10年一直出貨到中國，而我們現在仍然如此。所以我不知道貿易談判最後會走向哪裡。我認為我們目前處於一種我們知道正在發生什麼、但仍照常營運的狀態。我們的客戶想要機台，我們也有能力、也做得到。而且我們被允許出貨那些系統，所以我們會出貨。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. Could you give us your thoughts on how we should think about free cash flow for the remainder of the year?

好的。這很有幫助。接著再快速追問一下。你能否談談我們應該如何看待今年剩餘期間的自由現金流？

Free cash flow clearly is very back loaded. I mean if you look at the way sales are composed this year, sales are back loaded, and therefore, free cash flow is also very much back loaded. That is also the result of the fact that on EUV, we have a payment schedule with our customers, which is very back loaded. And as a result of that, you really will see that the second half and in particular, Q4 will be very, very cash rich. And there will be a very significant generation of free cash flow. But all of it will be very back loaded in this year.

自由現金流很明顯是高度後置的。我的意思是，如果你看今年銷售的組成，銷售是後置的，因此自由現金流也非常後置。這也是因為在EUV方面，我們與客戶的付款時程是非常後置的。因此你會看到下半年、尤其是第四季，現金會非常、非常充裕。而且會有非常顯著的自由現金流產生。但今年全部都會非常後置。

The next question comes from Mr. Stephane Houri.

下一個問題來自Stephane Houri先生。

So this is Stephane Houri from ODDO. I have a question about EUV again. I would like to discuss a bit about your lead times and to understand on EUV specifically and understand what is the limit that you need to receive the orders from your customer to make sure that you will be in the range of 30 to 35 machines in 2020? And the short follow-up is about the OpEx that keep on rising. Do you think you will continue on that trend going forward for the rest of the year and also for 2020?

我是ODDO的Stephane Houri。我又有一個關於EUV的問題。我想討論一下你們的交期，特別是EUV，並了解你們需要在什麼時間點收到客戶訂單，才能確保你們在2020年能落在30到35台機器的範圍內？另外一個簡短追問是關於持續上升的營運費用（OpEx）。你認為這個趨勢在今年剩餘時間以及2020年還會持續嗎？

Yes. I will answer the question on the lead time and Roger will answer the question on the OpEx. On the lead time, there is an order lead time which we give our customers of about 18 months. And now having said that, we are negotiating with our customers from time-to-time. And they don't always hold to the 18 months. It sometimes depends on some certain conditions that are not that significant, but we only have a deal when you have a signature. So but that -- the lead time is 18 months, it was 24. We're driving it down, we have to, because you have to realize that it's pretty difficult also for our customers to guess what they need in terms of capacity ramp and the size of the capacity ramp 18 or 24 months out, nobody knows.

是的。我會回答交期的問題，Roger會回答OpEx的問題。關於交期，我們給客戶的下單提前期大約是18個月。話雖如此，我們也會不時與客戶協商。他們不一定都會遵守18個月。有時候會取決於一些不那麼重要的特定條件，但只有在簽字之後我們才算成交。不過——交期是18個月，之前是24個月。我們正在把它往下壓，我們必須這麼做，因為你必須了解，對我們的客戶而言，要在18或24個月之前就預測他們在產能爬坡方面需要什麼、以及爬坡規模有多大，也相當困難，沒有人知道。

So it is essential that we keep reducing the cycle time in the supply chain and the cycle time in our factory so we make sure that we can deal with that flexibility. We don't put a limit to it. It is not that if you don't give an 18-month order, you won't get the slot because we have other ways to secure the shipment and that's basically knowing that we do the installation inspections when the factory is built, when the factory is finished. We work together with suppliers of the equipment that is attached to our tools. We work together with the suppliers and actually making all the facilities and all the piping and then -- and everything that goes with a semiconductor fab. So we know that customers are realistic and it's real that they are planning those EUV tools. And that gives us the confidence that while some customers might not adhere to the 18 months for all kinds of commercial reasons and that they sign the orders a bit later, the tool will ship, and that's how it works.

因此，我們必須持續縮短供應鏈的週期時間以及我們工廠的週期時間，確保我們能應對那種彈性。我們不會對此設下限制。並不是說如果你沒有提前18個月下單，你就拿不到產能名額，因為我們還有其他方式來確保出貨，基本上就是在工廠建好、完工時，我們會進行安裝檢查。我們會與那些附掛在我們設備上的配套設備供應商合作。我們與供應商合作，實際上把所有設施、所有管線，以及——以及半導體晶圓廠所需的一切都準備好。因此我們知道客戶是務實的，而且他們規劃那些EUV工具是真實的。這讓我們有信心：即使有些客戶因各種商業原因未必對所有訂單都遵守18個月、而是晚一點簽單，設備仍然會出貨，事情就是這樣運作的。

On OpEx, as you know, 2 main components in there: SG&A, SG&A, as you would've seen, is fairly consistent over the quarters. So if you look at 2018, 2019, it's fairly consistent. And the guidance that we've given for next quarter, EUR 125 million, and that's the number that I'm pretty comfortable with that we'll be able to keep at that level for a little while. And as it relates to R&D, you're absolutely right. We've pushed down the accelerator last year on R&D. We've indicated why. So this is on the pulling end of the low-NA program, we're really accelerating that program. Again, the fact that we're now talking about the EUV, the first EUV 3400C shipment in this quarter. And the fact that we've been able to, in essence, pull that in with the year I think is the result of that effort. And we'll continue to speed up in that process and the low-NA development.

關於營運費用（OpEx），如你所知，主要有兩個組成部分：銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）。SG&A 如你在各季度所見，相當一致。所以如果你看 2018、2019 年，表現相當一致。而我們對下一季給出的指引是 1.25 億歐元，這個數字我相當有把握，我們能在一段時間內維持在這個水準。

High-NA is a big ticket item obviously in R&D and also the continued development of multi-beam. So those are the 3 main categories, as a result of which we told you last year, we're pushing down the accelerator. What we've guided for next quarter, EUR 495 million. I think it's reasonable to assume that, that's a number that you will also see in Q4. And then gradually you will see with -- an expected development of our business, I would expect that, let's say, at the second half of 2020 that you will see it get back gradually to the 40% that we've guided at the Capital Markets Day. That's the current plan.

高 NA 顯然是研發中的一個大項目，另外還有多束（multi-beam）的持續開發。因此這三大類別就是我們去年告訴各位我們正在加速投入的原因。我們對下一季的指引是 4.95 億歐元。我認為合理的假設是，你在第四季也會看到這個數字。接著，隨著——隨著我們業務的預期發展，我預期大約在 2020 年下半年，你會看到它逐步回到我們在資本市場日（Capital Markets Day）所指引的 40%。這就是目前的計畫。

The next question comes from Mr. Sandeep Deshpande.

下一個問題來自 Sandeep Deshpande 先生。

My first question is on the EUV tools, Peter. I mean I wanted to slightly look longer term rather than 2020 where everybody is focused on. How do you see -- I mean you've talked about this, again, in your Capital Markets Day. But do you see TSMC and the foundry market coming back in the following year as they begin to add more capacity in 2021? And what do you think is going to be your long-term capacity for EUV tools post this 2020, which is the big initial ramp up of EUV? And then secondly, when we -- Roger, my question to you on the gross margin. Can you just -- in your opening remarks, you said that your gross margin in the fourth quarter is going to be higher than 50%? Or is it going to be close to 50%? I just was trying to clarify on that one.

我的第一個問題是關於 EUV 設備，Peter。我的意思是，我想把視角稍微放長期一點，而不是大家都聚焦的 2020 年。你怎麼看——我的意思是你在資本市場日也再次談到這點。但你是否看到台積電（TSMC）以及晶圓代工市場在 2021 年開始增加更多產能時，於隔年回升？而你認為在 2020 年這波 EUV 大幅初期爬坡之後，你們 EUV 設備的長期產能會是多少？第二個問題是——Roger，我想問你毛利率。你在開場致詞中提到第四季毛利率會高於 50%？還是會接近 50%？我只是想釐清這一點。

Okay. Let me say, I think on the longer term EUV tools, what you -- what -- EUV tools will be first used, let's say, at the industry 7-nanometer node. As I say, there's layers ranging anywhere from between 7, 8 to 12. It depends on what customers are actually doing and with a tendency to go up. The next node, which industry 5, that's a significant increase. I think you'll see likely more than 20 EUV layers. So yes, that will, of course, create a demand for more EUV tools. However, we also have a productivity increase road map that should deal with part of it. But it cannot only be taken up by productivity improvement, so we need more EUV tools. This is why we have a capacity of around 45 units in our factory.

好的。我先說，我認為就長期的 EUV 設備而言，你——EUV 設備將首先用在產業的 7 奈米節點。如我所說，層數大約介於 7、8 到 12 層之間。這取決於客戶實際在做什麼，而且趨勢是往上增加。下一個節點，也就是產業的 5 奈米，會是顯著的增加。我想你很可能會看到超過 20 層的 EUV 層數。所以是的，這當然會帶來對更多 EUV 設備的需求。不過，我們也有一個生產力提升的路線圖，可以處理其中一部分需求。但不可能只靠生產力提升就完全吸收，因此我們需要更多 EUV 設備。這也是為什麼我們工廠的產能大約是 45 台。

If you look at our Capital Markets Day presentation, then with our mid-market scenario, that is -- this is probably what we would need taking into account the higher productivity. Now if it turns out that the end demand, when I talk about the customer end, the demand is even stronger, then yes, there are scenarios where we have to go over 45. We are not planning that yet. I think we have some time in terms of square meters that we need to build then because then we need to just extend the factories. We're not at that point yet, but we will watch that closely. But currently, I would say 45 units for a system with higher productivity capability, that should be sufficient for next couple of years.

如果你看我們資本市場日的簡報，在我們的中性市場情境下——考量更高的生產力，這大概就是我們所需要的。現在如果最終需求（我指的是客戶端的需求）更強，那麼是的，在某些情境下我們必須超過 45 台。我們目前還沒有這樣規劃。我認為在需要建造的廠房面積（平方公尺）方面我們還有一些時間，因為到那時我們只需要擴建工廠。我們還沒到那一步，但我們會密切觀察。但目前我會說，45 台、且具備更高生產力能力的系統，應該足以支應未來幾年。

And Sandeep, on the -- on your question on the gross margin, what I said in the introductory comments was that the Q4 gross margin approaches our 2020 target of greater than 50%. So the 2020 target is greater than 50%. We'll approach that in Q4, which you should read as high 40s, therefore.

Sandeep，關於你毛利率的問題，我在開場評論中說的是：第四季毛利率將接近我們 2020 年「高於 50%」的目標。所以 2020 年的目標是高於 50%。我們會在第四季接近該目標，你應該把這解讀為接近 50% 的高 40% 區間。

The next question comes from Krish Sankar.

下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar。

It's Krish from Cowen. I have 2 of them. First one -- both on 2020. The first one for Roger, if you look at next year, it looks like you're going to do EUR 4.2 billion to EUR 4.4 billion-or-so in EUV revenue. Is this figure within that whole revenue stream should come in at a 40% gross margin or is 40% more the exit run rate for next year? And then a question for -- a follow-up for Peter. If your customers mix and demand is similar in 2020 as in 2019 and you're shipping more EUV units, should we assume DUV units start coming down in 2020 because of more EUV? Or you think that transition is still for the down the road?

我是 Cowen 的 Krish。我有兩個問題。第一個——兩個都關於 2020 年。第一個問 Roger：如果你看明年，看起來你們 EUV 營收大約會是 42 億到 44 億歐元左右。這個數字在整體營收中是否應該以 40% 的毛利率來看待，還是 40% 更像是明年的期末（exit）運行水準？接著一個問題——給 Peter 的追問。如果 2020 年客戶組合與需求和 2019 年相近，而你們出貨更多 EUV 台數，我們是否應該假設 2020 年 DUV 台數會因為更多 EUV 而開始下降？還是你認為那個轉換還要更久以後才會發生？

Yes. To answer that question, I think it's further down the road. I mean, next year, you will still see very clear mix. Don't forget, let's take an example, there are Logic makers that have said we're going to ramp a 7-nanometer product in 2021, which means they need the tools in 2020. But still they're ramping capacity of the previous nodes, which is real capacity that they need to ship. So it's going to be a bit of a mix next year. The 2020 -- I don't think I've said at the 2020 EUV mix is going to be similar to 2019 because that is dependent on I think the success, you could call it or the demand for DRAM in the next year, which is a bit -- still needs to be proven like I tried to explain earlier.

是的。要回答這個問題，我認為那會是在更久以後。我的意思是，明年你仍會看到非常明顯的組合效應。別忘了，舉例來說，有些邏輯晶片製造商已表示他們將在 2021 年爬坡 7 奈米產品，這意味著他們在 2020 年就需要這些設備。但同時他們仍在擴充前一代節點的產能，而那是他們需要出貨的實際產能。所以明年會是有點混合的情況。至於 2020 年——我不認為我說過 2020 年的 EUV 組合會與 2019 年相似，因為那取決於我認為明年 DRAM 的成功（你可以這麼稱呼）或需求，而這一點——仍需要被證明，就像我先前試著解釋的那樣。

But the margin that we've given for EUV for 2020 is 40%. That's the margin that we've indicated. And we're comfortable that we'll get there in 2020.

但我們給出的 2020 年 EUV 毛利率是 40%。這就是我們所指示的毛利率。而我們有信心在 2020 年達成。

Next caller?

下一位來電者？

The next question comes from Mr. John Pitzer.

下一個問題來自 John Pitzer 先生。

Yes, it's Crédit Suisse. Peter, as always, I appreciate all the detail. I'm just kind of curious you talked about in your prepared comments that the non-EUV memory revenue for the back half of the year needs to be about EUR 900 million. I'm kind of curious if you could help us understand the profile between Q3 and Q4, i.e., how important is the Memory tick up to kind of your Q4 implied outlook? And do you think the current run rate is kind of, for better or worse, a bouncing along the bottom run rate and the risk is timing for an upturn? Or could you actually envision a scenario where Memory would actually go lower from these levels?

是的，我是瑞士信貸。Peter，一如既往，我很感謝你提供的所有細節。我只是有點好奇，你在事先準備的發言中提到，下半年非 EUV 記憶體營收需要約 9 億歐元。我想請你幫我們理解一下 Q3 與 Q4 之間的走勢輪廓，也就是說，記憶體業務的回升對你們 Q4 隱含展望有多重要？你認為目前的運行水準（不論好壞）算是在底部附近徘徊，而風險只是復甦時點的問題嗎？或者你是否能想像一種情境，記憶體會從目前水準進一步下滑？

Yes. It's a good question. So John, to answer the last one, I need a crystal ball because I don't know, whether it's going to be lower or not. I mean is it the bottom run rate? Well, EUR 900 million, annualized EUR 1.8 billion for capacity in an industry that is growing and also looking at where Logic is going, it's pretty tough to see that much lower than it is. Now I think the spread of the EUR 900 million, I don't have the exact details here, but I think it's about half-half, I mean it's not that much different. I am looking at -- yes, I think it's about half-half, yes. So it's not skewed to one of -- to Q3 or Q4. But by any means, EUR 900 million for 6 months or EUR 1.8 billion on an annualized basis for capacity -- for bit capacity in litho is not a very large number if you analyze it -- if you annualize it. So that's actually, that's a low -- that's a relatively low number.

是的。這是個好問題。John，要回答最後一個問題，我需要水晶球，因為我不知道它是否會更低。我的意思是，這是底部的運行水準嗎？嗯，9 億歐元，年化 18 億歐元的產能，在一個仍在成長的產業裡，再加上看看邏輯（Logic）的走向，很難想像會比現在低很多。至於這 9 億歐元在期間內的分布，我手邊沒有精確細節，但我認為大概是一半一半，也就是差異不大。我看一下——是的，我想大概是一半一半。所以不會偏向 Q3 或 Q4 其中之一。但無論如何，6 個月 9 億歐元或年化 18 億歐元的產能——就光刻中的位元產能而言——如果你去分析、把它年化，其實不是一個很大的數字。所以那其實是一個低——相對偏低的數字。

Now is that a bottom? I don't know. I don't know what is going to happen, but like I said earlier, on the positive side, customers are also changing their wafer output plans to the down side. So all these things will, of course, help. It's like with every memory cycle, you have to grind through it and lowering CapEx. And in this particular case, which is different than previous cycles, as you know, turning -- or closing the faucets here, basically slowing down the number of wafer starts. That is something that we haven't seen before. So all these things will help. I'm not that pessimistic on the length of this downturn, this Memory downturn. It will turn whether it's the end of the year or beginning of next year, I mean I don't think it's going to last out a lot longer.

那這是不是底部？我不知道。我不知道會發生什麼，但如我先前所說，正面的一點是，客戶也在把他們的晶圓產出計畫往下調整。所以這些事情當然都會有幫助。就像每一次記憶體循環一樣，你必須熬過去並降低資本支出（CapEx）。而在這一次，與以往循環不同的是，如你所知，關——或把水龍頭關小，基本上就是放慢晶圓開工（wafer starts）的數量。這是我們以前沒見過的。所以這些事情都會有幫助。我對這次下行、這次記憶體下行的持續時間沒有那麼悲觀。它會反轉，不論是在年底或明年初，我不認為它還會拖很久。

That's helpful, Peter. For my follow-up, I just wanted to go back to the impact of improving productivity on EUV tools shipment. It's pretty obvious that in the Memory space, DRAM space, there should be a pretty high correlation as productivity goes up, economics make more sense and even intra-node insertion of more layers seems like very plausible for DRAM. But I'm kind of curious about Logic foundry side just given that there's sort of a design cycle time for 5- and 7-nanometers, if you start to exceed productivity targets, does that actually drive more tool units or fewer tool units? Because my guess is intra-node insertion would be a much more difficult, timely, costly thing for your customers, your customers' customers. Are we still focused on units because if productivity is going up, I am assuming you're going to get better ASPs. So should we be more focused on a revenue target for litho instead of unit targets -- for EUV instead of a unit target?

這很有幫助，Peter。我的追問是，我想回到生產力提升對 EUV 設備出貨的影響。很明顯在記憶體領域、DRAM 領域，當生產力提升時，經濟性會更合理，而且在同一節點內插入更多層數對 DRAM 來說似乎非常可行。但我有點好奇邏輯晶圓代工端，考量到 5 奈米與 7 奈米有某種設計週期時間，如果你開始超過生產力目標，這會驅動更多設備台數，還是更少設備台數？因為我猜在同一節點內插入會是對你們客戶、以及你們客戶的客戶而言更困難、更耗時、更昂貴的事情。我們是否仍應聚焦在台數，因為如果生產力在提升，我假設你們會拿到更好的 ASP（平均售價）。所以我們是否應該更關注光刻的營收目標，而不是台數目標——對 EUV 來說，應該看營收目標而不是台數目標？

Yes. I'll let Roger comment on the last part. Yes, I think when you look at customers and the EUV uncertainty that I have seen over the last couple of years, the fact that they actually have changed layer adoption of EUV as we went -- as we -- as they gained more confidence and got more information out of their R&D, they actually changed the layer counts. It did -- it wasn't stable. I mean it actually changed. And actually, there's a tendency to go up. So that proves that the customers do take -- they have alternatives. Not that they're completely developing 2 separate techs, I think there's some interchangeability there, where they can swap certain layers to EUV if the economics make sense. I think it's taken into account in the design process. I mean that's what we've seen. And although why, as you know, the strength that we've seen by adding more layers could not have happened and we're seeing it. So it means that they're taking account of it. And they're designing probably in a manner where they have some flexibility to either -- to do either or.

是的。最後那部分我讓 Roger 來評論。是的，我認為當你看客戶，以及過去幾年我所看到的 EUV 不確定性時，事實上他們隨著——隨著他們更有信心、並從他們的研發中獲得更多資訊，他們確實改變了 EUV 的層數採用。它——並不穩定。我的意思是，它確實改變了。而且其實有往上增加的趨勢。所以這證明客戶確實會做取捨——他們有替代方案。並不是說他們完全在開發兩套不同的技術，我認為其中有一些可互換性，也就是如果經濟性合理，他們可以把某些層換成用 EUV。我認為這在設計流程中是有被納入考量的。我的意思是，這就是我們所看到的。而且雖然——如你所知——我們透過增加更多層數所看到的強勁表現，本來不可能發生，但我們確實看到了。所以這表示他們有把它納入考量。而且他們可能在設計時就保留一些彈性，可以——可以二擇一。

And John, (inaudible) your last comment, that was music to my ears because you're absolutely spot on. I think more and more we need to look at the EUV business not in terms of units, but in terms of the euro value that is attributed to that because you're absolutely right. The number of units is meaningless to the extent that you see the very significant uptick that we've been able to demonstrate in productivity and then translates into higher ASP. So that's why, on the go-forward basis, I do believe that we all need to think much more in terms of EUV revenue rather than EUV units.

John，(聽不清) 你最後的評論，對我來說簡直是天籟，因為你完全說對了。我認為我們越來越需要用歐元價值來看 EUV 業務，而不是用台數來看，因為你說得完全正確。在我們已經能夠證明生產力有非常顯著的提升、並進一步轉化為更高 ASP 的情況下，台數在某種程度上是沒有意義的。所以這也是為什麼，展望未來，我確實相信我們都需要更多以 EUV 營收而非 EUV 台數來思考。

The next question will come from Mr. Dominik Olszewski.

下一個問題將由 Dominik Olszewski 先生提問。

I'm from Morgan Stanley. As you mentioned, the Q4 will be a larger quarter with key focus on execution on supply chain. I appreciate that obviously building the tools requires a lot of complicated steps, but just curious whether there is any particular color on the specific aspects of execution that have greater risks than others in Q4 that we should watch for? And then I have a just quick follow-up.

我來自摩根士丹利。如你提到的，Q4 會是較大的一季，重點在於供應鏈的執行。我理解建造設備顯然需要許多複雜步驟，但我想請教，對於 Q4 的執行面，是否有任何針對特定環節的補充說明：哪些面向的風險比其他面向更高、是我們應該留意的？然後我還有一個簡短的追問。

Yes. I think we are introducing several new features on the 3400C, which includes -- actually it ranges from optics to laser alignment systems to the module vessel, which we're using to create EUV plasma. And it's all of the above and it all needs to come together at the right time. So when you have one of these components a few weeks later then you're a few weeks behind the shipment schedule. So this is what -- and this is normal when you introduce a new system, which has quite a significantly number -- higher number of new parts in it. So this is what it is. It is -- it can be all of the above and we just need to make sure that they're suppliers, which we know, I just mentioned them, source-related, the laser-related, optics, they're all ramping as fast as they can. There are at a maximum capacity. And of course, when with a new product, things don't go as planned because it takes a little bit longer to ship to us, then we have a delay. And that's pretty normal with this complex technology. But we're pushing them, we're sitting on top, but you have to take into account there is a level of risk there that we will -- might lose as a few systems that we need to push into January 2020.

是的。我認為我們在 3400C 上導入了幾項新功能，涵蓋——其實範圍從光學到雷射對準系統，再到我們用來產生 EUV 電漿的模組腔體。而且以上各項都可能是原因，並且都需要在正確的時間點整合到位。所以當其中一個元件晚了幾週到位，你的出貨時程就會落後幾週。所以這就是——而且這在導入新系統時很正常，尤其是這套系統裡新增零件的數量相當可觀——新增零件數更高。所以情況就是如此。它——可能是上述任何一項，我們只需要確保那些我們熟悉的供應商——我剛剛提到的，來源相關、雷射相關、光學相關——都在盡可能快速地擴產爬坡。他們已經在滿載產能。當然，對於新產品，事情不會完全照計畫進行；如果運送到我們這裡需要更長時間，我們就會延遲。而在這種複雜技術上，這是相當正常的。但我們正在推動他們、緊盯進度；不過你必須考量其中存在一定程度的風險，也就是我們——可能會少交付幾套系統，必須把它們推遲到 2020 年 1 月。

Okay. So no specific kind of math then, just broader kind of (inaudible). And then secondly, from your advantage points, I'm curious whether you have thoughts on DRAM? And specifically you have really quantified your perspective on DRAM utilization rates, whether you've seen anything and have you quantified them?

好的。所以就沒有特定的數學計算，只是比較廣泛的（聽不清）。然後第二點，從你們的觀點來看，我很好奇你們對 DRAM 有沒有什麼看法？特別是你們其實已經量化了你們對 DRAM 產能利用率的觀點，你們是否看到任何跡象？以及你們是否已經把它量化？

Well, we're seeing certain things, but we're not in customer fabs, although we have some level of information. And I don't think we should mention on this call any utilization rates or our assessment of the utilization rates of our customer, that is pretty confidential. But it's been their statements also, that is -- basically, they have lowered their wafer stocks, which is true. I mean we can -- our data that we see actually confirm this. So that's what it is and I think that's a good sign. But how much it is, I don't think we should discuss this in this call.

嗯，我們確實看到一些情況，但我們不在客戶的晶圓廠內，雖然我們掌握某種程度的資訊。而且我認為我們不應該在這通電話中提及任何利用率，或我們對客戶利用率的評估，這相當機密。但他們也有對外表述，基本上他們已經降低了晶圓庫存，這是真的。我的意思是——我們看到的數據其實也證實了這一點。所以就是這樣，我認為這是個好跡象。但具體是多少，我認為我們不應該在這通電話中討論。

Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for one last question. If you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Now, operator, may we have the last caller please?

各位女士、先生，我們還有時間再接受最後一個問題。如果您未能在本次電話中提問但仍有問題，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資人關係部門提出您的問題。現在，接線員，請為我們接通最後一位來電者，好嗎？

The last question will come from Mr. Amit Harchandani.

最後一個問題將由 Amit Harchandani 先生提出。

Two, if I may from my side. Firstly, since -- it could be helpful to get an update from your side on how the e-beam side of business is coming along in terms of its trajectory into the second half of the year and into 2020? And then I have another question, please.

如果可以的話，我這邊有兩個問題。第一，鑑於——若能請你們更新一下電子束（e-beam）業務的進展會很有幫助，特別是就今年下半年以及進入 2020 年的發展軌跡而言？然後我還有另一個問題。

Yes. I think not much different as we said last quarter. I mean we're on track to ship the first systems through R&D sites of our customers and talk about the multi-beam systems, which actually means we should ship multi-beam systems next year in volume to the market. It's -- in that sense, it's an update and update is what we said last quarter. It's no change there. The plan is still intact.

是的。我認為和我們上季所說的差不多。我的意思是，我們正按計畫透過客戶的研發據點出貨第一批系統；這裡談的是多束（multi-beam）系統，而這其實意味著我們明年應該會開始以量產規模向市場出貨多束系統。就這個意義上，這算是一個更新，而更新內容就是我們上季所說的。沒有變化。計畫仍然完整不變。

Okay. And secondly, if I may, you obviously have a macroeconomic backdrop with the trade wars between the U.S. and China. You clearly did not design a company to be supplying separately to U.S. and China, but given in terms of the opportunity going forward from China longer term, is there anything strategically or conceptually you need to think of in terms of how you're structured as an organization or as a supply chain to ensure you can keep on supplying both of these key geographies going forward? I guess it's a bit hypothetical, but certainly something to consider given what you've seen over the past 1 year.

好的。第二個問題，如果可以的話，你們顯然面臨一個宏觀經濟背景，也就是美中之間的貿易戰。你們顯然不是把公司設計成分別供應美國與中國；但考量到中國長期的機會，從策略或概念上，你們是否需要思考在組織架構或供應鏈結構上做些什麼，以確保未來仍能持續供應這兩個關鍵地區？我想這有點假設性，但鑑於你們過去一年所看到的情況，這確實是值得考量的。

I think I would say, Amit, that that's a very good question because, one, the answer is it's too early. I mean we don't know how this is going to pan out. And this is -- overall, it is a concern, it is more a strategic concern that we need to start thinking of, just like you said. And I think it's absolutely not the time to take drastic decisions because I don't know how this is going to pan out. But we'll follow it very closely. And you're right, it is our intention to service our customers and our customers that are going to place orders, and we are wanting to -- we're completely willing and wanting to ship those orders. And unless there are legal boundaries that we cannot cross and we will not, then we will keep doing what we are doing. But you are right. Speculating where this might end up is a bit dangerous, but it is definitely too early to start thinking of any big strategic organizational moves into another direction to make sure that we can ship to our customers. It's a bit of a wait and see.

Amit，我想我會說這是個非常好的問題，因為第一，答案是現在還太早。我的意思是，我們不知道事情會如何發展。而整體而言，這確實令人擔憂；這更像是一個我們需要開始思考的策略性擔憂，正如你所說。但我認為現在絕對不是做出激烈決策的時候，因為我不知道事情會如何發展。不過我們會非常密切地追蹤。而你說得對，我們的意圖是服務我們的客戶，以及那些會下單的客戶；我們也希望——我們完全願意並且希望出貨這些訂單。除非存在我們無法、也不會跨越的法律界線，否則我們會繼續做我們正在做的事。但你說得對。推測這件事最後會走向何處有點危險，但現在確實還太早，不適合開始思考任何重大的策略性組織調整，轉向另一個方向，以確保我們能對客戶出貨。這需要再觀望一下。

Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thank you.

現在我謹代表 ASML，感謝各位今天加入我們。接線員，如果你能正式結束本次電話會議，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Sure. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2019 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

好的。各位女士、先生，本次 ASML 2019 年第二季財務結果電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。