艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to ASML 2018 fourth quarter and annual financial results conference call on January 23, 2019. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to open the question-and-answer queue. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 ASML 於 2019 年 1 月 23 日舉行的 2018 年第四季暨全年財務結果電話會議。(接線員指示) 我現在將開放問答隊列。(接線員指示)

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Go ahead, please, sir.

我現在想將電話會議交給 Skip Miller 先生。先生，請開始。

Right. Thank you, operator. Good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today from ASML's headquarters in Veldhoven in The Netherlands is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen.

好的。謝謝您，接線員。各位女士、先生，午安與早安。我是 Skip Miller，ASML 投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一同在荷蘭費爾德霍芬 ASML 總部出席的有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink，以及我們的財務長 Roger Dassen。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2019 fourth quarter and annual results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2019 年第四季暨全年業績。本次電話會議長度為 60 分鐘，並將依收到問題的順序進行提問。本次電話會議也將於 asml.com 透過網際網路進行即時直播。管理層開場致詞的逐字稿以及電話會議重播，將於本次電話會議結束後不久在我們的網站上提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in the ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位聽眾，管理層在本次電話會議中的評論將包含符合聯邦證券法意義之「前瞻性陳述」。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險與不確定性。關於風險因素的討論，我鼓勵您查閱今日新聞稿與簡報中所載的安全港聲明（可於 asml.com 取得），以及 ASML 以 Form 20-F 提交的年報與其他向美國證券交易委員會申報的文件。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

接下來，我想把電話交給 Peter Wennink，請他做簡短開場。

Thank you, Skip. Good morning, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us for our Q4 and 2018 annual results conference call.

謝謝你，Skip。各位女士、先生，早安、午安。感謝各位參加我們的第四季與 2018 年全年業績電話會議。

Before we begin the question-and-answer session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the fourth quarter and the full year 2018 as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. Roger will start with a review of our Q4 and full year financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook.

在開始問答環節之前，Roger 和我想先就第四季與 2018 年全年表現提供概覽與一些評論，並分享我們對未來幾季的看法。Roger 將先回顧我們第四季與全年財務表現，並補充對短期展望的評論。我將在開場最後補充一些對目前商業環境與未來業務展望的看法。

Roger, if you will?

Roger，請。

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first highlight some of the fourth quarter and full year financial accomplishments and then provide our guidance for the first quarter of 2019.

謝謝你，Peter，也歡迎各位。我將先重點說明第四季與全年在財務上的一些成果，接著提供我們對 2019 年第一季的指引。

Q4 net sales came in at EUR 3.14 billion, slightly higher than our guidance. Net system sales of EUR 2.42 billion was more weighted towards Logic at 60% with the remaining 40% from Memory. We shipped 6 EUV systems and recognized EUV revenue of EUR 579 million from 5 shipments. 1 system was shipped to collaborative research center Imec, was not recorded as revenue, which we mentioned last quarter.

第四季淨銷售額為 31.4 億歐元，略高於我們的指引。系統淨銷售額為 24.2 億歐元，其中邏輯（Logic）占比 60%，其餘 40% 來自記憶體（Memory）。我們出貨 6 台 EUV 系統，並就其中 5 台出貨認列 5.79 億歐元的 EUV 營收。另有 1 台系統出貨至合作研究中心 Imec，未認列為營收，我們在上季已提及。

Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 719 million. Gross margin for the quarter was 44.3%, which was negatively impacted by the Nikon settlement. Without this charge, the gross margin was 48.5%.

本季已裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）銷售額為 7.19 億歐元。本季毛利率為 44.3%，受到與 Nikon 和解的負面影響。若不含此項費用，毛利率為 48.5%。

We signed a memorandum of understanding with Nikon to settle our legal disputes over the alleged patent infringements that was initiated by Nikon. Therefore, we recorded a provision in our 2018 accounts, which has a negative impact of EUR 131 million on gross margin in 2018. Overall, R&D and SG&A expenses came in a little higher than guidance with R&D expenses at EUR 442 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 135 million.

我們與 Nikon 簽署了一份諒解備忘錄，以解決由 Nikon 發起、關於涉嫌專利侵權的法律爭議。因此，我們在 2018 年帳上認列了一項準備，對 2018 年毛利率造成 1.31 億歐元的負面影響。整體而言，研發與銷售、一般及行政（SG&A）費用略高於指引，其中研發費用為 4.42 億歐元，SG&A 費用為 1.35 億歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. EUR 345 million worth of shares were repurchased in Q4. This leaves around EUR 1.35 billion of the 2018-2019 share buyback remaining. We ended last quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 4.03 billion, which was higher than expected due to early payments by multiple customers at the end of the year.

接著看資產負債表。第四季回購股票金額為 3.45 億歐元。這使得 2018-2019 年股票回購計畫尚餘約 13.5 億歐元。上季末我們的現金、約當現金與短期投資為 40.3 億歐元，高於預期，原因是年底多位客戶提前付款。

Moving to the order book. Q4 system bookings came in at EUR 1.59 billion. Logic order intake was 80% of total value with the remaining 20% from Memory. We took 5 new EUV orders in the quarter.

再看訂單。第四季系統接單金額為 15.9 億歐元。邏輯（Logic）訂單占總價值的 80%，其餘 20% 來自記憶體（Memory）。本季我們取得 5 筆新的 EUV 訂單。

For the full year, our net sales grew 22% to a record of EUR 10.9 billion. Net Installed Base Management sales was similar to last year at EUR 2.68 billion. We shipped 18 EUV systems with a total EUV system sale of EUR 1.9 billion, representing a significant growth over 2017.

全年而言，我們的淨銷售額成長 22%，達到創紀錄的 109 億歐元。已裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）淨銷售額與去年相近，為 26.8 億歐元。我們出貨 18 台 EUV 系統，EUV 系統銷售總額為 19 億歐元，較 2017 年顯著成長。

Our gross margin for 2018 was 46%, which would have been 47.2% without the Nikon settlement charges. We made considerable improvements on our gross margin in 2018 and remain on track to achieving overall gross margins exceeding 50% in 2020 as confirmed during our Investor Day in November last year.

2018 年毛利率為 46%；若不含 Nikon 和解費用，毛利率將為 47.2%。我們在 2018 年大幅改善毛利率，並仍按計畫在 2020 年達成整體毛利率超過 50% 的目標，這也如同我們在去年 11 月投資人日所確認的。

We continue to invest in the long-term future of ASML and increased R&D from EUR 1.26 billion in 2017 to EUR 1.58 billion in 2018. The increase was primarily driven by the acceleration of our EUV road map. Overall, R&D investments as a percentage of 2018 revenue was about 14% and SG&A was about 5 -- 4.5% of revenue, both similar to 2017 as a percentage of revenue. Net income for the full year grew 25% to a record of EUR 2.6 billion, resulting in 23.7% of net sales and an EPS of EUR 6.10.

我們持續投資 ASML 的長期未來，研發投入由 2017 年的 12.6 億歐元增加至 2018 年的 15.8 億歐元。此增幅主要由 EUV 路線圖加速推進所帶動。整體而言，2018 年研發投入占營收約 14%，SG&A 約占營收 5%—4.5%，兩者占比皆與 2017 年相近。全年淨利成長 25% 至創紀錄的 26 億歐元，相當於淨銷售額的 23.7%，每股盈餘（EPS）為 6.10 歐元。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the first quarter of 2019. We expect Q1 total net sales of about EUR 2.1 billion. The lower revenue guidance is due to a combination of revenue pull into Q4 2018 as well as a reduction in shipments due to a fire at one of our suppliers, Prodrive, and some system demand change.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2019 年第一季的預期。我們預期第一季淨銷售額約為 21 億歐元。較低的營收指引是由多項因素共同造成，包括部分營收提前至 2018 年第四季認列、因供應商 Prodrive 發生火災導致出貨減少，以及部分系統需求變化。

As announced in a press release on December 3 last year, there was a fire at one of our suppliers of electronics components and modules. This resulted in a loss of work in progress as well as some inventory. Due to the integral cycle time of about 1 quarter for these modules, our first quarter sales will be negatively affected -- impacted by around EUR 300 million, which we expect to largely recover in Q2. We expect the remainder to be recovered in the second half.

如同我們在去年 12 月 3 日新聞稿中所宣布的，我們一家提供電子元件與模組的供應商發生火災。這導致在製品以及部分庫存損失。由於這些模組的整體週期時間約為 1 季，我們第一季銷售將受到負面影響——影響金額約 3 億歐元，我們預期大部分可在第二季回補。其餘部分預期將在下半年回補。

Our total net sales forecast for Q1 includes around EUR 300 million of EUV system revenue. We currently expect to ship 3 EUV systems in Q1. We expect our Q1 Installed Base Management revenue to be around EUR 600 million, which is primarily due to lower field upgrades as a result of the Prodrive fire.

我們對第一季淨銷售額的預測包含約 3 億歐元的 EUV 系統營收。我們目前預期第一季將出貨 3 台 EUV 系統。我們預期第一季已裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）營收約為 6 億歐元，主要原因是 Prodrive 火災導致現場升級（field upgrades）較少。

Gross margin for Q1 is expected to be around 40%. The lower gross margin is due to a combination of mix, lower field upgrades, factory loading and EUV service burden. The mix relates to a reduction in higher-margin immersion systems and field upgrades as a result of the Prodrive fire and some system demand change. With lower system sales, there is also a reduction in factory loading, which has a negative impact on gross margins.

第一季的毛利率預期約為40%。較低的毛利率是由產品組合、現場升級減少、工廠稼動率以及EUV服務負擔等因素共同造成。產品組合的影響，與Prodrive火災以及部分系統需求變化導致高毛利的浸潤式系統與現場升級減少有關。在系統銷售較低的情況下，工廠稼動率也隨之下降，對毛利率造成負面影響。

As our EUV installed base continues to grow, we must expand our service infrastructure to support these systems in the field, which is an increased burden on gross margins until we start collecting service revenue later this year. We see the impact from these items continuing into Q2 with an expected recovery in second half.

隨著我們的EUV裝機基數持續成長，我們必須擴充服務基礎設施以支援現場系統；在今年稍晚開始收取服務營收之前，這將對毛利率造成更大的負擔。我們預期這些項目的影響將延續至第二季，並在下半年出現回升。

The positive margin recovery in the second half will be driven by higher revenue, does improve factory loading as well as increased field upgrades, and we will start shipping the higher-margin NXE:3400C, in addition to realizing EUV service revenue. We expect to move towards our 2020 target of over 50% gross margin as we exit the year.

下半年毛利率的正向回升將由更高的營收所帶動，進而改善工廠稼動率並增加現場升級；同時，我們也將開始出貨毛利較高的NXE:3400C，並實現EUV服務營收。我們預期在年底時，將朝著2020年超過50%毛利率的目標邁進。

The higher R&D expenses for Q1, around EUR 480 million, are due to an acceleration of the NXE:3400 road map and growing investments in the High-NA EUV program. SG&A is expected to come in at around EUR 130 million, which is similar to prior quarter.

第一季較高的研發費用約為4.8億歐元，主要是因為加速NXE:3400路線圖以及對High-NA EUV計畫的投資增加。SG&A（銷售、一般及行政費用）預期約為1.3億歐元，與前一季相近。

Although we are currently going through a period of uncertainty in the industry, we look forward to a growth opportunity in 2019. As we remain confident in our long-term growth, we will propose a 50% increase in our dividends to EUR 2.10 per share at our Annual Shareholder Meeting, which takes place on April 24 in Veldhoven. The dividend payment is valued at around EUR 880 million.

儘管我們目前正處於產業不確定性的期間，我們仍期待2019年的成長機會。由於我們對長期成長仍具信心，我們將在4月24日於費爾德霍芬（Veldhoven）舉行的年度股東大會上，提議將股利提高50%至每股2.10歐元。股利發放金額約為8.8億歐元。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter.

接下來，我想把電話會議交回給Peter。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, we had another good quarter, closing a great year for us with a record demand from our memory and logic customers combined across our entire product portfolio. While the current geopolitical landscape and economic environments are creating volatility in the markets and uncertainty on the near term, as mentioned before, we still expect overall growth in 2019.

謝謝你，Roger。如Roger所強調，我們又度過了一個不錯的季度，並以記憶體與邏輯客戶在我們整體產品組合上的創紀錄需求，為我們畫下精彩的一年句點。雖然目前的地緣政治局勢與經濟環境為市場帶來波動，並使短期前景存在不確定性，但如先前所述，我們仍預期2019年整體將成長。

At the very end of last year, we saw the continued slowdown of memory end market demand as well as some demand reduction in the logic end markets primarily driven by the mobile and the server markets. And this translated into pushouts of our planned systems to both memory and logic customers from the first half 2019 in their attempt to regain balance of supply against demand.

在去年年底，我們看到記憶體終端市場需求持續放緩，邏輯終端市場也出現部分需求下修，主要由行動裝置與伺服器市場所驅動。這使得記憶體與邏輯客戶為了重新平衡供需，將原先規劃於2019年上半年交付的系統延後（pushout）。

The net market, as mentioned today -- in prior quarters, remains in an overbuy situation -- oversupply situation and is going through a digestion phase after a period of significant 2D to 3D conversions, yield improvements and wafer capacity additions.

如今天所提及——以及前幾季所述——NAND市場仍處於超買——供給過剩——的狀態，在經歷一段顯著的2D轉3D、良率改善與晶圓產能擴增後，正進入消化階段。

DRAM is experiencing softening of bit demand, largely driven by decreased demand in mobile market as well as some inventory correction in the server market. All this has resulted in some pushouts of planned shipments by memory customers in the first half of 2019. Customers have indicated that they believe there will be a recovery the second half of the year, and they expect that inventory levels will be managed down swiftly.

DRAM的位元需求正在走弱，主要是由行動市場需求下降，以及伺服器市場的部分庫存修正所致。這些因素導致記憶體客戶在2019年上半年將部分原定出貨延後。客戶表示他們認為下半年將會復甦，並預期庫存水位將迅速被調降。

In Logic, while we see some softening in Deep UV demand, which is primarily driven by the mobile market, we still expect strong demand in support of the ramp of 10 and 7-nanometer nodes. We also expect to see strong growth in EUV demand, supporting the customers' ramp of 7 and 7-plus nanometer nodes as well as a transition to the 5-nanometer node.

在邏輯方面，雖然我們看到深紫外（Deep UV）需求略有走弱，主要由行動市場驅動，但我們仍預期為支援10奈米與7奈米節點的量產爬坡，需求將保持強勁。我們也預期EUV需求將強勁成長，以支援客戶7奈米與7奈米加（7-plus）節點的爬坡，以及向5奈米節點的轉移。

Although future developments in the macroeconomic environment can impact our current view, currently expect Logic demand to increase around 50% year-over-year and Memory to be down around [20%] year-over-year. We still expect single-digit percentage growth of Installed Base revenue. In summary, 2019 will be a growth year, largely driven by Logic.

儘管總體經濟環境的未來發展可能影響我們目前的看法，我們目前預期邏輯需求年增約50%，而記憶體需求年減約[20%]。我們仍預期裝機基礎（Installed Base）營收將有個位數百分比成長。總結而言，2019年將是成長的一年，主要由邏輯業務所帶動。

On the ASML product side, we -- let me start with update of our EUV business. In EUV, we continue to make solid progress as evident in the positive public comments from our logic and memory customers with the use of EUV in their most advanced nodes. Logic customers are installing systems in support of volume manufacturing for the 7 and 5-nanometer nodes. DRAM customers are also working on qualifying EUV with their future nodes. And this year, we expect that the first commercial EUV-enabled chip reach the consumer market.

在ASML產品方面——我先從EUV業務更新開始。在EUV方面，我們持續取得穩健進展，從邏輯與記憶體客戶對於在其最先進節點使用EUV所發表的正面公開評論即可見一斑。邏輯客戶正在安裝系統，以支援7奈米與5奈米節點的量產。DRAM客戶也在針對其未來節點進行EUV的認證作業。而在今年，我們預期首款商用、採用EUV製程的晶片將進入消費市場。

2018, we demonstrated over 145 wafers per hour, and we are accelerating our EUV road map to deliver 170 wafers per hour with our NXE:3400C with first shipments planned in second half of 2019. NXE:3400C will also include a number of innovations that will further improve availability.

在2018年，我們展示了每小時超過145片晶圓的產能，並正加速EUV路線圖，將以NXE:3400C達到每小時170片晶圓，首批出貨計畫於2019年下半年進行。NXE:3400C也將包含多項創新，進一步提升可用率。

As Roger mentioned, we shipped 6 systems in Q4, which translates to a total of 8 EUV shipments in 2018. With the 5 orders booked this quarter, our shipment plan of 30 systems for 2019 is covered.

如Roger所提及，我們在第四季出貨6套系統，使2018年EUV總出貨量達到8套。加上本季取得的5筆訂單，我們2019年30套系統的出貨計畫已獲得覆蓋。

In Deep UV, we shipped out 189 systems in 2018, an increase of 17% over 2017, and we were able to further increase our output in support of the demand from both logic and memory customers. And we continue ramping our latest immersion system, NXT:2000 with a record time to achieve mature customer yields.

在深紫外（Deep UV）方面，我們於2018年出貨189套系統，較2017年成長17%，並能進一步提升產出，以支援邏輯與記憶體客戶的需求。我們也持續爬坡最新的浸潤式系統NXT:2000，並以創紀錄的時間達到客戶成熟良率。

Our application portfolio has continued to see strong adoption in all market segments. Our latest YieldStar system continues to gain adoption in memory customers following the strong adoption we saw in Logic. Integrated products using the combined technology of HMI and ASML are being evaluated at multiple customer sites to help improve customer yields and time to market.

我們的應用產品組合在所有市場區隔持續獲得強勁採用。我們最新的YieldStar系統在邏輯客戶強勁採用之後，也持續在記憶體客戶中獲得採用。採用HMI與ASML整合技術的整合式產品，正在多個客戶據點進行評估，以協助提升客戶良率並縮短上市時間。

So to summarize 2018, our fourth quarter came in slightly above our guidance, and we nearly achieved EUR 11 billion sales for the year, which was a milestone originally set for 2020. Although 2018 was a very good year from a financial perspective, I think it was also a milestone year in terms of technology innovations across all our products. This not only provides our customers with higher value solutions, it also fuels our future growth.

因此總結2018年，我們第四季表現略高於指引，全年銷售額接近110億歐元，達成了原本設定於2020年的里程碑。雖然從財務角度來看，2018年是非常好的一年，但我認為在我們所有產品的技術創新方面，這同樣是里程碑的一年。這不僅為客戶提供更高價值的解決方案，也推動我們未來的成長。

Turning to 2019. We currently see some uncertainty in the market, but after a long period of strong capacity investments, driven by healthy demand over the past years, it is normal to see a period of digestion, which we expect in first half of 2019.

接著談2019年。我們目前看到市場存在一些不確定性，但在過去幾年健康需求帶動下，客戶長期進行強勁的產能投資之後，出現一段消化期是正常的，我們預期這將發生在2019年上半年。

With regards to the markets we serve, our customers responded quite late in Q4, slowing demand in their end markets by delaying deliveries of litho systems for the first half of 2019 to balance supply and demand. We now see our first half of 2019 lower than the second half of 2018 with the reduction being roughly an equal split between Memory and Logic.

就我們所服務的市場而言，客戶在第四季相當晚才做出反應，因其終端市場需求放緩，為平衡供需而延後2019年上半年微影系統的交付。我們現在看到2019年上半年將低於2018年下半年，且減少幅度約由記憶體與邏輯各占一半。

The fundamental drivers of high-performance compute with associated high-performance memory and data storage are still in place and our customers clearly indicated the need for a strong shipment settled in the second half of 2019 in support of their 2020 business potential. The demand in the second half of 2019 will, therefore, be 50% higher than the first half of the year.

高效能運算及其所需的高效能記憶體與資料儲存等基本驅動因素仍然存在，而客戶也明確表示，為支援其2020年的業務潛力，2019年下半年需要強勁的出貨量。因此，2019年下半年的需求將比上半年高出50%。

For 2019, the Logic segment is expected to be the growth driver, investing strongly in technology transitions as well as production capacity with our advanced nodes. As we have consistently done in prior slowdowns, we sustained or even accelerated our investments in R&D, deliver on the leading-edge technology where the market turns up, which has been and will be the key driver to secure our long-term growth. We expect to increase our investments in R&D to EUR 1.9 billion for 2019.

就2019年而言，邏輯（Logic）事業部預期將成為成長動能，我們將在先進製程節點上，對技術轉換以及產能擴充進行強力投資。如同我們在過去景氣放緩期間一貫的作法，我們維持甚至加速研發投資，在市場回升時交付領先業界的尖端技術；這一直是、也將是確保我們長期成長的關鍵驅動因素。我們預期2019年的研發投資將提高至19億歐元。

We reiterate that we see market demand that supports yet another growth -- supports yet another year of growth for ASML in 2019 with significantly stronger demand in the second half of the year. As Roger explained, we see similar developments in our profitability with lower margins expected in the first half of 2019, improving towards our 2020 targets of over 50% as we exit the year.

我們重申，我們看到市場需求足以支撐ASML在2019年再度成長——並且在下半年需求將顯著轉強。如Roger所說明，我們的獲利能力也呈現類似走勢：2019年上半年預期毛利率較低，並在年底逐步改善，朝我們2020年超過50%的目標邁進。

Despite some uncertainty in the current environment, we remain confident about our sales and profit targets for 2020 and beyond as we communicated during our Investor Day in November last year. We're happy to underline this confidence with our proposal of a 50% increase in our dividend.

儘管目前環境仍有一些不確定性，我們對於2020年及其後的營收與獲利目標仍維持信心，正如我們在去年11月投資人日所傳達的。我們也很高興以提議將股利提高50%來再次強調這份信心。

And with that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

接下來，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Mr. Mitch Steve.

(接線員指示) 第一個問題來自Mitch Steve先生。

Mitch Steves from RBC. I just had to really focus on the Q1 and kind of the quarterly numbers going forward. So I understand a EUR 300 million hit from the fire, but how do I think about kind of June and then going forward to September, December in terms of sequentials? And secondly, also for the gross margin line, I think it's pretty difficult to get from 40% to kind of 50% at the exit. So any help there would also be very useful.

我是RBC的Mitch Steves。我想把重點放在第一季以及未來各季的季度數字。我了解火災造成約3億歐元的影響，但就環比（sequential）而言，我該如何看待6月，並進一步到9月、12月的走勢？第二個問題是關於毛利率，我認為要從40%提升到年底接近50%相當困難。如果能就此提供一些說明，也會非常有幫助。

Okay, thank you. So let me start by talking about the gross margin and the gross margin drivers, if you like, in the first quarter and then reconciling that to how we see the rest of the year. So as I mentioned in my introduction, the main drivers of gross margin in the quarter, so bringing back the gross margin from 48.5%, which is the gross margin that we had in Q4 if you adjust for Nikon and then bringing it down to the 40% that we essentially guide for Q1, the main drivers there are the loading in the factory. As we said, that is the result of obviously, lower sales level. That would account for about 1% in that bridge. The second element is the mix in DUV, and that is essentially as a result of some of the pushouts from the first quarter into essentially the second half. And that generates approximately a 2.5% impact in that bridge of the gross margin. The biggest impact on gross margin actually is from what we call the field upgrades and service, and that has 2 components to it, and I mentioned both components in my introduction. One component is the lower field upgrades. And the lower field upgrades that we expect to have in Q1 are, to a very large extent, related to the Prodrive situation because it means that there is no availability for field upgrades for certain components. So that's one element. And if we talk about the EUV's -- EUV service burden, which I mentioned in my introduction, again just to recap what we mean by that, as you know, the installed base in EUV is growing. A number of our customers are looking into high-volume manufacturing for EUV, not too long from now. That means that we have to support them, obviously, in the field to get everything up and running. While the revenue associated with the service from EUV will only kick in once wafers are being produced, which we expect to happen at the end of this year. So that means that we have a significant cost burden right now, while the revenues only kick in at the end of the year. If you take those 2 together, so the lower field upgrades and the EUV service burden, that accounts for approximately 4% in that gross margin bridge that I gave you. And then there's about 1% left, which is miscellaneous. That has a number of elements in there. So that kind of gives you the bridge from the 48.5% to the 40% that we had in Q1. Now back to your question, how is all of that going to -- how we going to recover to normal margin levels, if you like, in H2, and as I mentioned, how we going to get from this situation into the -- towards 50% gross margin that we expect as we exit 2019 into 2020. So as it relates to the mix effect and also the loading effect as a result of the uptake of the business that we expect for the second half, that is what is the main driver -- the main driver behind that. We also expect some of the field upgrades that we lost as a result of Prodrive in the first quarter. We expect some of that to be recouped in the second half of this year. Third important point in getting the margin up to that level is the shipment in the course of the second half of the 3400C model, which is the model that, as you know, has a significantly better margin profile. And then, finally, again related to what I just mentioned at the end of this year when high-volume manufacturing starts to kick in on EUV, that's where we also expect service revenue to come up. So that's essentially how we came back from 48.5% to 40%. But also, it gives you the bridge how we believe we're going to exit the year at the level of towards 50% gross margin.

好的，謝謝。我先談毛利率以及第一季毛利率的驅動因素，並說明我們如何看待今年其餘時間的變化。如我在開場所提到的，本季毛利率的主要驅動因素——也就是把毛利率從48.5%（若調整Nikon因素，這是我們第四季的毛利率）拉低到我們對第一季所指引的40%——主要原因在於工廠稼動率（loading）。如我們所說，這顯然是較低的銷售水準所致。這在該毛利率橋接中約占1%。第二個因素是DUV產品組合（mix），主要是因為部分原本在第一季的出貨延後（pushouts）到下半年。這在毛利率橋接中約造成2.5%的影響。對毛利率影響最大的其實是我們所稱的現場升級（field upgrades）與服務（service），其中包含兩個組成，我在開場也都提到。其中一個組成是現場升級較少。我們預期第一季現場升級較少，在很大程度上與Prodrive的狀況有關，因為這代表某些零組件無法供應以進行現場升級。這是其中一個因素。再談到EUV——我在開場提到的EUV服務負擔（EUV service burden），再簡要回顧其意涵：如各位所知，EUV的裝機基礎（installed base）正在成長。我們的一些客戶不久後將評估EUV的高量產（high-volume manufacturing）。這表示我們必須在現場支援他們，讓一切順利上線運作。然而，與EUV服務相關的營收要等到晶圓開始生產後才會開始認列，我們預期會在今年底發生。因此，我們目前承擔顯著的成本負擔，但營收要到年底才會開始進來。若把這兩項合併來看——現場升級較少與EUV服務負擔——在我提供的毛利率橋接中合計約占4%。另外還剩約1%，屬於其他（miscellaneous）。其中包含多個因素。以上大致說明了毛利率從48.5%到第一季40%的橋接。回到你的問題：這些因素將如何——我們將如何在下半年恢復到較正常的毛利率水準，以及如我所提到的，我們如何從目前狀況走向2019年底、並延伸至2020年我們預期接近50%的毛利率。就產品組合效應與稼動率效應而言，隨著我們預期下半年業務回升，這將是背後的主要驅動因素。我們也預期，第一季因Prodrive而流失的部分現場升級，可望在今年下半年回補一部分。第三個讓毛利率提升到該水準的重要因素，是下半年出貨3400C機型；如各位所知，該機型的毛利結構明顯更佳。最後，同樣呼應我剛才提到的：在今年底EUV高量產開始啟動時，我們也預期服務營收將隨之上升。以上說明了我們如何從48.5%回落到40%。同時也提供一個橋接，說明我們為何相信年底可望以接近50%的毛利率水準作結。

Yes. And Mitch, let me answer the, I'd say, the Q-on-Q sequence. Let me say half-on-half sequence. So first of all, I'd like to reiterate what I said earlier that, for the year, we expect the Logic sales to be 50% up from last year, Memory about 20% down and a single-digit growth in Installed Base Management. Now you can add it all up. And if you then come to that number, that sales number will be divided half-on-half. As such, we believe that the second half of 2019, as I said earlier, will be about 50% higher than the first. So if you take those numbers, then you can calculate the Q-on-Q, I would say, the half-on-half trend.

是的。Mitch，我來回答你關於季度環比（Q-on-Q）的序列問題。我改用上下半年（half-on-half）的序列來說明。首先，我想重申我先前提到的：以全年來看，我們預期邏輯（Logic）銷售額將較去年成長50%，記憶體（Memory）約下滑20%，而裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）則為個位數成長。你可以把這些加總起來。當你得到那個銷售數字後，再以上下半年來分配。因此，我們相信2019年下半年——如我先前所說——將比上半年高出約50%。依據這些數字，你就可以推算季度環比，我會說是上下半年趨勢所反映的結果。

The next question comes from Mr. Krish Sankar.

下一個問題來自Krish Sankar先生。

Sankar from Cowen. Thanks for taking my questions. I have 2 of them. First one, Peter, given the DRAM outlook has incrementally worsened over the last couple of months and now you view that these tools that have been pushed out from first half into second half of the year, what kind of tangible data points that you or your customers have on a conviction in the second half shipment recovery? And is there a risk it can get pushed out further? And I also had a follow-up.

我是Cowen的Sankar。謝謝讓我提問。我有兩個問題。第一個，Peter，鑑於過去幾個月DRAM展望逐步惡化，而你們現在認為這些原本從上半年延後到下半年的設備（tools），下半年出貨復甦的確信（conviction）是基於哪些具體、可量化的數據點（tangible data points），不論是你們或你們客戶所掌握的？是否存在進一步延後的風險？我還有一個追問。

Yes. I think, Krish, that is a good question. I think what our customers are actually seeing is what their customers are telling them what they need. So there's nobody there with a crystal ball that can say -- that can tell us that the second half is going to be absolutely certain at a certain level. It's simply not there. I think, therefore, the economic uncertainties are simply there, and they need to basically stabilize to give us a bit more confidence. However, having said that, the feedback we get, especially from our DRAM customers, is that -- from our largest customers, is that they said we should not underestimate their ability to react swiftly and that's what they have done. So they said, to what we are looking -- where we're looking now, that is a 20% bit growth or even slightly less this year. And then looking what they have installed in terms of capacity and their ability to react swiftly, which they have already done, they believe that, with that bit demand, they should be back into a more positive territory in the second half of this year. That's what they've told us. But again, if you're asking for absolute certainty, which somebody did during our press conference this morning, there is no absolute certainty, but it is very much related to the economic environment. But based on these data points, our customers believe that we need to be ready to start shipping again in H2.

是的。我認為，Krish，這是個好問題。我認為我們的客戶實際上看到的是，他們的客戶告訴他們需要什麼。所以沒有人有水晶球可以說——可以告訴我們下半年在某個水準上一定會百分之百確定。根本不存在那種情況。因此，我認為經濟不確定性確實存在，而它們基本上需要先穩定下來，才能讓我們更有信心。不過話說回來，我們收到的回饋，特別是來自我們的 DRAM 客戶——也就是我們最大的客戶——是他們說我們不應低估他們迅速反應的能力，而這正是他們已經做過的事。所以他們表示，就我們現在所看到——我們現在所看的情況，今年的位元成長（bit growth）是 20% 或甚至略低一些。接著再看他們已安裝的產能以及他們迅速反應的能力（他們已經這麼做了），他們相信在那樣的位元需求下，他們應該能在今年下半年回到較為正向的區間。這是他們告訴我們的。但再說一次，如果你在問絕對的確定性——今天早上的記者會也有人這樣問——那是不存在絕對確定性的，但這與經濟環境高度相關。不過基於這些資料點，我們的客戶相信我們需要準備好在下半年（H2）再次開始出貨。

Got it, got it. Peter, that's very helpful. And then just as a follow-up. When I look at your memory orders in Q4, it's like down almost 80% from the peak, and it's also back to like early 2016 levels. So should we expect memory bookings to rebound in calendar Q1 in the current quarter? Or do you think it's going to take a quarter or 2 before you see that happening?

了解，了解。Peter，這非常有幫助。接著再追問一下。當我看你們第四季（Q4）的記憶體訂單時，幾乎比高峰下滑了 80%，而且也回到像 2016 年初的水準。所以我們是否應該預期在目前這一季的曆年第一季（calendar Q1），記憶體接單（bookings）會反彈？還是你認為要再過 1 到 2 個季度才會看到這種情況？

Well, it is what I said earlier. I think it is a swift reaction. So it's quite a significant reduction. And I think that the low memory order intake is a reflection of what the customers decided they wanted to do in Q4 with respect to the 2019 shipments. Now if they're right, on the second half of the year, we should see a rebound of those orders in the course of the year.

嗯，這就是我先前說的。我認為這是一個迅速的反應。所以這是相當顯著的縮減。而我認為記憶體訂單承接偏低，反映的是客戶在第四季針對 2019 年出貨所決定要做的事情。現在如果他們對於今年下半年的判斷是正確的，那麼我們應該會在今年的過程中看到這些訂單回升。

The next question comes from Mr. David Mulholland.

下一個問題來自 David Mulholland 先生。

It's David Mulholland from UBS. Just one question, firstly, on the EUV road map. Obviously, you talked a lot about this at your Capital Markets Day and, at some point, this needing to move towards multipatterning. I think some of the comments that we've seen in some industry events were suggesting that might even be the case at kind of the 5-nanometer node or the industry 5-nanometer node. So wonder if you could maybe comment on how you see that progressing, and then I've got a follow-up.

我是 UBS 的 David Mulholland。先一個問題，首先關於 EUV 路線圖。顯然你們在資本市場日談了很多，而且在某個時間點需要走向多重圖形化（multipatterning）。我想我們在一些產業活動中看到的評論暗示，這甚至可能在大約 5 奈米節點、或業界的 5 奈米節點就會發生。所以想請你評論一下你如何看待這個進展，然後我還有一個追問。

Yes. I think if you talk about the industry 5-nanometer node, which some of our customers then call the N3 node, yes, there is some discussion on this. Now I don't think we can say with 100% certainty that it's going to happen, but it's definitely something that's being considered. That's correct.

是的。我認為如果你談的是業界的 5 奈米節點，而我們有些客戶稱之為 N3 節點，是的，確實有一些討論。現在我不認為我們能以 100% 的確定性說它一定會發生，但這絕對是正在被考慮的事情。沒錯。

And then just in terms of the follow-up. On the comment you made on China, I'm still seeing looking quite strong even after what happened on one of the customers there being banned from buying from the U.S. Have you started seeing more confirmations on orders from the likes of YMTC or Innotron at this stage?

接著就追問一下。關於你對中國的評論，即使在那邊有一家客戶被禁止向美國採購之後，我仍然看到（中國）看起來相當強勁。你們在這個階段是否已開始看到來自像 YMTC 或 Innotron 這類客戶更多的訂單確認？

Well, I think the -- you have to make a split between the domestic and the nondomestic customers. I think some of the slowdowns that we have seen, they do relate to the nondomestic Chinese customers and effects about the Chinese fabs, but the domestic demand is still as strong as it was 1 or 2 or 3 quarters ago. I mean -- and it's understandable. If you look at what they're doing, I mean, many of those starts are new. They are strategic investments. Some of their products have been qualified. And that means they can start ramping, which I think, from a strategic point of view, is something that they will do anyhow, which is also a -- I think, a confirmation of the fact that what they say they're going to do. I mean, that's what we see today. So yes, from a domestic point of view, that was pretty strong.

嗯，我認為——你必須把國內（domestic）與非國內（nondomestic）客戶區分開來看。我認為我們看到的一些放緩，確實與非國內的中國客戶有關，以及對中國晶圓廠的影響，但國內需求仍然和 1、2 或 3 個季度前一樣強勁。我的意思是——這也可以理解。如果你看他們在做什麼，我是說，其中很多開工（starts）是新的。它們是策略性投資。他們的一些產品已經完成認證（qualified）。這表示他們可以開始爬坡量產（ramping），而我認為從策略角度來看，這是他們無論如何都會做的事，這也——我認為——印證了他們所說他們會做的事情。我的意思是，這就是我們今天所看到的。所以是的，從國內的角度來看，那一直相當強勁。

Just one quick follow-up on the comment in your response to the multipatterning question. What assumption had you made in the model that you presented for 2025 on the industry 5 node? Were you assuming single patterning in that?

針對你在回答多重圖形化問題時的評論，我再快速追問一個。在你們針對 2025 年、以業界 5 奈米節點所呈現的模型中，你們做了什麼假設？你們在那裡是假設單次曝光（single patterning）嗎？

I don't think so. It was not there. And I think it's still uncertain whether it will happen, but we assume single patterning solutions.

我不這麼認為。那裡沒有。而且我認為它是否會發生仍不確定，但我們假設的是單次曝光（single patterning）解決方案。

The next question comes from Mr. John Pitzer.

下一個問題來自 John Pitzer 先生。

Yes, it's Credit Suisse. Peter, you did a really good job kind of helping us understand for the overall business how that half-on-half recovery will look like in 2019. I'm wondering if you could just do the same thing for sort of the EUV expectations. Clearly, given the slower start to the year, it feels like the half-on-half growth in EUV needs to be even stronger than the 50% you referenced for the overall business. And I'd be curious, as you think about 30 tools for this year, how that breaks down Logic versus Memory.

是的，我是瑞信（Credit Suisse）。Peter，你在幫助我們理解整體業務在 2019 年上下半年（half-on-half）的復甦會是什麼樣子方面做得非常好。我想請你也用同樣方式談談 EUV 的預期。很明顯，鑑於年初起步較慢，感覺 EUV 的上下半年成長需要比你對整體業務所提到的 50% 還要更強。而且我也想了解，當你們思考今年 30 台設備時，邏輯（Logic）與記憶體（Memory）各自的占比如何？

Yes. Well, to answer your last question, we, of course, have a customer that does both. So -- but if you could say -- I would say about 80% to 90% is going to be Logic, yes, and 10%, 15% DRAM related, but we have 80% to 90% Logic. And it's true. I think you will see the same pattern for EUV shipments in the second half of the year being significantly higher than the first half. That's the fact that, that was actually planned also. I don't think it's got anything to do with the pushback. It's more than just the logistic planning of our customers shapes this pattern, yes. So yes, it's going to be more than 50%, but it's just a matter of planning logistics, which we already had. Nothing changed there.

是的。嗯，回答你最後一個問題，當然，我們有一位客戶同時做兩者。所以——但如果要說——我會說大約 80% 到 90% 會是邏輯（Logic），是的，而 10%、15% 與 DRAM 相關，但我們有 80% 到 90% 是邏輯。而且這是真的。我認為你會看到 EUV 出貨在下半年顯著高於上半年的同樣模式。事實上，那也是原本就規劃好的。我不認為這與延後（pushback）有任何關係。更多是客戶的物流規劃塑造了這種模式，是的。所以是的，會超過 50%，但這只是物流規劃的問題，而我們原本就已經有這樣的規劃。那裡沒有任何改變。

Helpful. Then as my follow-up for Roger. Can you just talk a little bit about the R&D costs going forward? It was a little bit higher than we were modeling, both in the December and the March quarters. How should we think about R&D here? And you mentioned kind of the cost you're incurring now for EUV service without service revenue. Is that now fully baked into the model so that it's now a leverageable event as EUV revenue ramps? Or how do we think about that?

很有幫助。接著我對 Roger 的追問。你能否談一下未來的研發（R&D）成本？在 12 月與 3 月季度，研發費用都比我們模型預估的略高一些。我們應該如何看待這裡的研發？另外你提到，你們目前為 EUV 服務所承擔的成本，但尚未有服務收入。這部分現在是否已完全納入模型，因此當 EUV 營收爬升時就會成為可槓桿化（leverageable）的事件？或者我們應該如何看待這件事？

Yes, so let me start with answering that latter question. The answer is yes. So that is modeled -- that is included now in the model, for sure. On the R&D side, the guidance we get for Q1, EUR 480 million, in essence, that's kind of the run rate that we would expect for the quarters in this year. So our expectation for the full year would be about 4x this number. And so the number that we expect for 2019 with the road maps in there that you're very familiar with, particularly the High-NA, the pulling in of the 3400C multibeam and a number of other things. Going into 2020, I think the guide that we gave there at that stage of around 14% of our revenue, that's probably where we see that for 2020.

是的，那我先回答後面那個問題。答案是肯定的。所以那已經建模——也就是說，現在確實已經納入模型之中。在研發（R&D）方面，我們對第一季的指引是4.8億歐元；基本上，這大致就是我們預期今年各季的常態水準。因此，我們對全年預期大約是這個數字的4倍。所以我們對2019年的預期數字，包含你非常熟悉的路線圖，特別是High-NA、將3400C多光束（multibeam）提前導入，以及其他一些事項。展望2020年，我想我們當時給的指引約為營收的14%，那大概就是我們對2020年的看法。

And perhaps on the R&D number for 2019, I think where we said we took the decision to accelerate the introduction of the 3400C and High-NA as the logical next node in EUV, the multibeam development, we accelerated in the second half of 2018 the hiring of the people to make sure that, at the beginning of 2019, we had all the people onboard. So if you take our Q1 guidance, this is -- and you basically take that on average -- or sorry, on an annual basis, you can argue that we actually created the infrastructure -- R&D infrastructure to do this, and we wanted to finalize that by the end of 2018. And this is what we did. So this is basically the full year effect that you're seeing now in 2019 of the decisions that we have taken in 2018.

另外，關於2019年的研發數字，我想我們說過，我們決定加速導入3400C與High-NA，作為EUV的合理下一個節點，以及多光束的開發；我們在2018年下半年加速招募人員，以確保在2019年初所有人員都到位。所以如果你看我們第一季的指引——這是——你基本上把它取平均——或抱歉，以年化來看，你可以說我們其實建立了做這件事所需的基礎設施——研發基礎設施，而我們希望在2018年底前完成。而這就是我們所做的。所以你現在在2019年看到的，基本上就是我們在2018年所做決策在2019年的全年效應。

The next question comes from Mr. Pierre Ferragu.

下一個問題來自Pierre Ferragu先生。

It's Pierre, New Street Research. I was wondering about like the inflation of the 3400C later this year, how this is going to look like in terms of deliveries. Is there a point in time from which all of the vast majority of your deliveries are related to 3400C? Or is it going to be more gradual with like half of shipments being B, half of shipment being C? And then do you have any update or more like color on how is the economics are going to work between the 2 tools, so the difference in ASP? And then last but not least, I was wondering if your B tools that you are shipping today are going to be upgradable to C and, same thing, what the economics would be there.

我是Pierre，New Street Research。我想了解今年稍晚3400C的放量，從交付角度會是什麼樣子。是否會有一個時間點，從那時起你們絕大多數的交付都會是3400C？還是會更漸進，例如一半出貨是B、一半出貨是C？另外，你們是否能更新或補充說明兩種工具之間的經濟性如何運作，也就是ASP（平均售價）的差異？最後但同樣重要的是，我想問你們目前出貨的B機台是否可以升級到C？同樣地，那裡的經濟性會是如何？

Okay. Yes, the 3400C will ship in the second half of the year, and you could assume that any ship within Q4, they will be Cs, yes, and some of it will be in Q3. But the majority of the shipments this year will still be Bs, and everything that we're booking now are Cs. So it's going to be a handover, you could say, from the B to the C starting in the end of Q3. Roger, you want to take the economics?

好的。是的，3400C會在下半年出貨，你可以假設第四季（Q4）出貨的都會是C，是的，其中一部分會在第三季（Q3）。但今年大多數出貨仍會是B，而我們現在接到的訂單（booking）全部都是C。所以你可以說，從第三季末開始會從B交接到C。Roger，你要談一下經濟性嗎？

So on your other 2 questions, on the economics, as you know, in terms of the specs, the current machine that we ship has a spec of 125 wafers per hour. We've guided that for the 3400C. It's going to be 170 -- more -- over 170 wafers per hour, which means approximately a 35% increase in the throughput. And I think as we've guided in the past, you can typically assume that the ASP kind of correlates with that percentage. So currently, the ASP for the machine that we ship today is about EUR 100 million. So you can kind of calculate what the ASP expectation is that we have for this machine. In terms of upgrades, indeed, we do have options to have a part of the performance update that the C has over the B to also make that available to the B machines in the form of upgrade. Not entirely, but the vast majority of the performance upgrade can be obtained through a few upgrades.

關於你另外兩個問題，先談經濟性。如你所知，就規格而言，我們目前出貨的機台規格是每小時125片晶圓。我們已對3400C給過指引。它將達到170——甚至超過170片晶圓/小時，這意味著吞吐量大約提升35%。而且我想如同我們過去的指引，你通常可以假設ASP大致會與這個百分比相關。所以目前我們今天出貨的機台ASP約為1億歐元。因此你可以大致推算我們對這台機器的ASP預期。至於升級，確實，我們有一些選項，可以把C相對於B的部分性能提升，也以升級的形式提供給B機台。不會是全部，但絕大多數的性能提升可以透過幾項升級來取得。

Yes. But having said that, I mean, it's going to be a question of economics on this because it's a different lens. So actually, basically, you need to be able to take the hit of quite an expensive upgrade and that, of course, needs to be balanced with the real performance of the B and the real performance with -- of the C. So we'll just have to see whether that's going to happen. But when it happens, it's going to be an expensive -- an upgrade. But having a new lens into that system is not trivial.

是的。但話說回來，這會是經濟性上的問題，因為那是一個不同的鏡頭（lens）。所以基本上，你必須能承受相當昂貴的升級成本，而這當然需要在B的實際性能與——C的實際性能之間做權衡。所以我們得看看這是否會發生。但如果發生，那會是一個昂貴的——升級。而在那個系統中更換一個新鏡頭並不是一件簡單的事。

The next question comes from Mr. Mehdi Hosseini.

下一個問題來自Mehdi Hosseini先生。

Peter, just as a follow-up to the prior question. After 30 system -- EUV system in your backlog, how should we think about the mix of the 3400 -- 3400C, I'm sorry.

Peter，我想就前一個問題追問一下。在你們積壓訂單（backlog）中有30套EUV系統之後，我們應該如何看待3400——抱歉，3400C的組合（mix）？

Yes. It's the -- sort of like I said, the fourth quarter shipments will probably be -- are going to be all 3400Cs. So if you think about this, it's probably going to be around, yes, 5 to 10, but the total is 13. But now I'm going to confuse you that some of the Cs will have -- be fully upgraded new vessel, yes, which is 5 to 10. So there's going to be an in-between version of the 3400C, which was at a, we could say, older-type EUV source vessel. So it's 13 in total. But really, the ones with all the new vessels is going to be 5 to 10. We try to do 10, could be 5 if the supply chain is a bit slower than we think. But overall, it's going to be 13. And that also means that from a price point of view, we will start -- of course, it will be higher, but the 35% that Roger mentioned, that applies to the full-fledged 3400C with the new modular vessel.

是的。就像我說的，第四季出貨大概——會全部是3400C。所以如果你這樣想，可能大約會是5到10台，但總數是13台。但我現在要把你搞混了：其中一些C會——是完全升級、採用新vessel（腔體/模組艙）的，是的，這部分是5到10台。所以會有一個介於中間的3400C版本，我們可以說，它採用較舊型的EUV光源vessel。所以總共是13台。但真正配備所有新vessel的會是5到10台。我們努力做到10台；如果供應鏈比我們想的慢一些，可能會是5台。但整體來說會是13台。而這也意味著，從價格角度來看，我們將開始——當然會更高，但Roger提到的35%適用於完整規格的3400C，也就是搭載新的模組化vessel的版本。

Got it, okay. And I have a follow-up regarding the -- just the big picture and how do you see the overall demand environment. If I were to strip away the EUV revenue, it seems like the core business could have a couple of quarters of sequential decline, which is typical of a downturn. If I were to look at the late '15, early '16, you had 3 quarters of sequential decline in revenues. And the prior downturns were also a multiquarter revenue decline. In that context, how do you see the current downturn compared to prior cycles? What is different now? And what are the things that are similar to the prior downturns?

了解，好。我還有一個追問，關於——整體大方向，以及你們如何看待整體需求環境。如果我把EUV營收剔除，看起來核心業務可能會出現連續幾季的季比下滑，這是景氣下行時的典型情況。如果我回看2015年末、2016年初，你們的營收曾連續3季季比下滑。而之前的下行週期也都是跨多季的營收下滑。在這樣的背景下，你們如何看待這次下行與以往週期相比？現在有什麼不同？以及有哪些地方與以往的下行相似？

Well, downturns are always similar in the sense that supply is higher than the demand. And now the question is how big is that difference. To be very frank, we can only repeat or tell you what we get from the discussions from our customers because they have a better view of their market in the discussions with their customers. So this is -- I can only repeat what I said earlier. They talk about a 2-quarter correction in inventory. That is driven, I think, very much by the macroeconomic situation and the macroeconomic uncertainty. So this is a big crystal ball that I don't have and nobody has, so we'll have to see. I'd like to really comment on what you started your question off with, and that's of if you strip away EUV and look at the core business. May I remind you that EUV is our core business, yes, and that we can only ship those leading-edge Deep UV tools because there is EUV solution for 7 and 5-nanometer. Without the EUV, there would not be a 5 and 7-nanometer transition. So that means that everything that we are shipping is -- and that includes EUV, has to do with the technology transitions that our customers are planning to actually capture the value of everything that we still talk about and that will happen which has to do with cloud, Big Data -- and I could repeat the whole thing again. That is unabated. That will happen. And you cannot strip EUV out because it drives this technology transition. It's part of the core business.

嗯，景氣下行在某種意義上總是相似的，也就是供給高於需求。而現在的問題是這個差距有多大。坦白說，我們只能重複或轉述我們從客戶討論中得到的資訊，因為他們在與其客戶的討論中，對自身市場有更好的視角。所以這是——我只能重複我先前說過的話。他們談到庫存將修正兩個季度。我認為這在很大程度上是由總體經濟情勢以及總體經濟不確定性所驅動。所以這是一個我沒有、也沒有人有的水晶球，我們只能拭目以待。我想真正回應你在問題開頭提到的，也就是如果把EUV拿掉、只看核心業務。我提醒你，EUV就是我們的核心業務，是的；而且我們之所以只能出貨那些最先進的深紫外（DUV）設備，是因為在7奈米與5奈米節點有EUV解決方案。沒有EUV，就不會有5奈米與7奈米的轉換。這意味著我們正在出貨的一切——其中也包括EUV——都與客戶規劃中的技術轉換有關，目的是要真正掌握我們仍在談論、且將會發生的所有價值，這些都與雲端、大數據——我可以把整段再重複一次——相關。這股趨勢不會減弱。它一定會發生。而你不能把EUV剔除，因為它驅動了這個技術轉換。它是核心業務的一部分。

The next question comes from Mr. C.J. Muse.

下一個問題來自C.J. Muse先生。

Evercore ISI. I guess, Peter, another follow-up excluding EUV, which you may not like. But if you look at 2019, and if I pull out immersion, which is obviously being weighed down by pushouts on the Memory side, and excluding EUV, what's interesting, I guess, it looks like KrF and ArF dry and i-Line are actually growing year-on-year. So can you kind of walk through what you're seeing that's driving that, whether it's legacy 200-millimeter China advanced logic? Would love to hear what is driving that, including as well whether there's a rising litho intensity that we should be thinking about.

Evercore ISI。我想，Peter，再追問一個把EUV排除在外的問題，你可能不喜歡。但如果你看2019年，並且我把浸潤式（immersion）拿掉——這顯然因記憶體端的遞延（pushouts）而承壓——再排除EUV，有趣的是，看起來KrF、ArF乾式（dry）以及i-Line其實都在年增。所以你能否談談你看到是什麼在驅動這件事？是否是傳統的200毫米、中國的先進邏輯？很想聽聽是什麼在驅動這個趨勢；也包括是否有上升的微影強度（litho intensity）是我們應該納入考量的。

Yes. I think it's -- C.J., that's answered as well as you are right. If you read those numbers, I think there are 2 areas where we see, from a product point of view, an increase, which is eerie, which we talked about. And like I said earlier, you cannot strip this out because it's just part of the entire development in the industry. And indeed, we have KrF. We have dry. Deep UV is also higher currently than what we think that we saw in 2018, and that has to do with, indeed new fabs, has to do with China. It is not that much higher, but indeed, it doesn't show a reduction in system sales. And this is also what Roger referred to, that this mix, this Deep UV mix, which is a mix of immersion and KrF, is of course in the first half leading to this 2.5% reduction in the gross margin. But with the immersion systems picking up in the second half, that will resolve itself. But it is indeed the right correction -- the right conclusion that you drew of the KrF systems being higher than in previous quarters. And of course, EUV in entirety of 2019.

是的。我想——C.J.，這個問題其實也已經回答了，而且你說得沒錯。如果你解讀那些數字，從產品角度來看，我認為我們看到有兩個領域出現增加，這有點耐人尋味，而我們也談過。而且如我先前所說，你不能把這個剔除，因為它就是整個產業發展的一部分。確實，我們有KrF。我們有乾式（dry）。深紫外（DUV）目前也比我們認為在2018年看到的水準更高，而這確實與新晶圓廠有關，也與中國有關。它並沒有高出很多，但確實沒有顯示系統銷售下滑。這也是Roger提到的，這個深紫外（DUV）組合——由浸潤式與KrF構成——當然在上半年導致毛利率下降2.5%。但隨著浸潤式系統在下半年回升，這個問題會自行化解。不過，你得出的結論確實正確——也就是KrF系統高於前幾個季度。當然，2019年全年也包含EUV。

Very helpful. And as a follow-up, I guess, specific to EUV gross margins, it looks like you came in around 20% in Q4 of '18, if I pro-forma that onetime charge. I think you've talked about exiting calendar '19 at 30%. Can you walk through how we should think about the ramp there? And as well, can you talk about where you're seeing bottlenecks? Is it still primarily Carl Zeiss? Are we still at roughly 9-month cycle time? Can we get it down to 6? Would love to hear the working parts to gross margins and cycle times as we go through the year.

非常有幫助。再追問一下，我想針對EUV毛利率來看，如果我把那筆一次性費用以備考（pro-forma）方式調整，你們在2018年第四季大約是20%。我記得你們談過在2019曆年結束時要達到30%。你能否說明我們應該如何看待這個爬坡（ramp）？另外，你能談談你們看到的瓶頸在哪裡嗎？主要還是Carl Zeiss嗎？我們的週期時間（cycle time）仍大約是9個月嗎？能否降到6個月？很想聽聽在今年推進過程中，影響毛利率與週期時間的各個工作環節。

The main driver of that improvement is that we already mentioned the introduction of the 3400C model. So that is the main driver through its higher ASP. Of course, there is an element in there of further reducing cycle time, and as a result of that, being more efficient in the manufacturing of the machines. But the main driver in getting to this uptick of 10% in the gross margin on systems really is the higher ASP on the 3400C model.

該改善的主要驅動因素是我們已經提到的3400C機型導入。因此，主要驅動來自其較高的平均售價（ASP）。當然，其中也有進一步縮短週期時間的因素，並因此在機台製造上更有效率。但要讓系統毛利率上升這10%的主要驅動，確實是3400C機型較高的平均售價（ASP）。

And then on your question on the 20%, I think you're about right when you say the blended EUV margin is about 20%. The system margin, by the way, is over 30%. So that goes into the right direction. The issue is, and I said it earlier, that we decided in 2018 to at least make sure that we step up the infrastructure for EUV service that we are at that point. We're not going to grow that any further in 2019. But we do get the full brunt in terms of cost starting January 1, 2019, because the EUV infrastructure, given the ramp profile of our customers, needs to be ready and the learning curve for our people in the field is more than a year. So that effectively brings the blended EUV gross margin down. And we said it earlier, we don't have yet coverage of that EUV service infrastructure. It will only start by the end of the year when we start seeing the first HVM, high-volume manufacturing, wafer output, for which we will get paid. And of course, that will accelerate throughout 2020 and beyond. So the service burden, and Roger talked about it, is I think the main reason why there is a gap between the 30% and the 20% that you calculated.

至於你提到的20%，我想你說得大致正確，也就是EUV的綜合毛利率（blended EUV margin）約為20%。順帶一提，系統毛利率其實超過30%。所以方向是對的。問題在於——我先前也說過——我們在2018年決定至少要確保把EUV服務的基礎設施提升到當時所需的水準。我們在2019年不會再進一步擴張這部分。但從2019年1月1日起，我們會承擔全部的成本壓力，因為考量到客戶的爬坡曲線（ramp profile），EUV基礎設施必須事先就緒，而且我們現場人員的學習曲線需要一年以上。因此，這實際上會把EUV的綜合毛利率拉低。而且我們先前也說過，我們目前尚未能以EUV服務收入覆蓋這套EUV服務基礎設施。要到年底，當我們開始看到第一批HVM（高量產，高產量製造）的晶圓產出、並因此獲得付款時，才會開始覆蓋。當然，這會在2020年及之後加速。所以服務端的負擔——Roger也談到了——我認為是你計算出的30%與20%之間存在差距的主要原因。

The next question comes from Mr. Amit Harchandani.

下一個問題來自Amit Harchandani先生。

Amit Harchandani from Citi. Just a quick question, if I may, to begin with on the Installed Base Management side of things. Given your comments, you've talked about a mid-single-digit or a single-digit growth in installed base over the course of 2019. Just wondering if you could elaborate on the puts and takes of that and what could push it lower or higher. The reason I ask this is because, as I look at the number for 2019 and then I look at some of the scenarios you had laid out for 2020, I think the Installed Base number was seen at about EUR 3.6 billion to EUR 3.7 billion in 2020. Just wondering if you still think you could get to that number, what would drive that around? And again, what would be the implications for gross margin? Because I do understand this is a [lid] of the higher gross margin.

我是花旗（Citi）的Amit Harchandani。如果可以的話，我先快速問一個關於已裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）方面的問題。根據你們的評論，你們提到2019年已裝機基礎將有中個位數或個位數的成長。想請你進一步說明其中的利多與利空因素（puts and takes），以及哪些因素可能讓它更低或更高。我之所以這樣問，是因為當我看2019年的數字，再看你們為2020年提出的一些情境，我記得已裝機基礎在2020年大約被看作是36億至37億歐元。想請問你們是否仍認為可以達到那個數字？會由哪些因素來推動？另外，對毛利率會有什麼影響？因為我理解這是較高毛利率的「[lid]」（上蓋/上限）。

Yes, yes. I think on the gross margins, you do understand this always will have an impact -- a positive impact on the gross margin. But the single-digit number for this year is also driven by what Roger said earlier. I mean, we did have a supply chain issue because of the supplier of some of the electronics and the motion control, Prodrive. That fire had an impact on the upgrades that we were planning to do in the first half of this year. Now we're using those components to shipments. That actually means that the upgrades are coming back in the second half of the year, but those are complex upgrades for which we simply don't have the service capacity to do all the upgrades to basically catch up 6 months -- or it's actually 12 months of business in 6 months' time. So for the year, you would see that, that actually gives you a lot -- you just lose upgrade business, and that brings the growth percentage down to single digit. Now hopefully, I do assume we do not have a similar situation in 2020. And then, it should really correct itself. So it is the single-digit growth has to do with the fact that we cannot recuperate 12 months in 6 months. That's the main reason.

是的，是的。我認為在毛利率方面，你也理解這一點一向都會帶來影響——對毛利率有正面影響。但今年的個位數成長也受到 Roger 先前所說的因素所驅動。我的意思是，我們確實因為某些電子元件與運動控制供應商 Prodrive 而遇到供應鏈問題。那場火災影響了我們原本計畫在今年上半年要做的升級。現在我們把那些元件用在出貨上。這其實意味著升級會在下半年回來，但那些是複雜的升級，我們的服務產能根本不足以完成所有升級，來基本上追回 6 個月——或者其實是把 12 個月的業務在 6 個月內做完。所以就全年而言，你會看到這其實讓你少掉很多——你就是流失了升級業務，因而把成長百分比拉低到個位數。現在我希望、也假設 2020 年不會有類似情況。那麼它應該就會真正自我修正。所以，個位數成長是因為我們無法在 6 個月內彌補 12 個月的量。這是主要原因。

okay. So you still are quite confident in getting to that EUR 3.6 billion, EUR 3.7 billion. It's just a temporary issue?

好的。所以你們仍然相當有信心達到 36 億歐元、37 億歐元。這只是暫時性的問題？

Still our target.

仍然是我們的目標。

The next question comes from Mr. Stephane Houri.

下一個問題來自 Stephane Houri 先生。

This is Stephane Houri from ODDO. I have a question about the second half outlook. Just to understand a little bit more what you're saying basically. Are you banking on any recovery in the memory DRAM or nonspace to talk about this tool increase? Or is it just based on the Logic business? And if ever it was happening, do you have enough -- would you have enough capacity to meet the demand?

我是 ODDO 的 Stephane Houri。我有一個關於下半年展望的問題。只是想更了解你們基本上在說什麼。你們在談這個工具（設備）增加時，是否押注記憶體 DRAM 或非揮發性（nonspace）會有任何復甦？還是只是基於邏輯（Logic）業務？如果真的發生了，你們是否有足夠——你們會有足夠的產能來滿足需求嗎？

To answer your last question, yes, we will have enough capacity. Generally, it's really driven by Logic, a strength in the second half. We do expect, when we talk to our memory customers, that we do expect some recovery in H2. But when you look at H2, it will be a strong Logic-driven half.

回答你最後一個問題：是的，我們會有足夠的產能。一般來說，主要是由邏輯（Logic）所驅動，下半年會更強。我們在與記憶體客戶溝通時，確實預期下半年（H2）會有一些復甦。但如果你看下半年，它會是一個由邏輯驅動的強勁下半年。

Okay, okay. And I have a short follow-up. You said during your remarks that the EUV deliveries, the 30 machines that you're talking about, were covered by your order book. How do you see 2020 for EUV shipments?

好的，好的。我有一個簡短的追問。你在發言中提到，EUV 的交付——你所說的那 30 台機器——已經被你們的訂單簿所覆蓋。你怎麼看 2020 年的 EUV 出貨？

2020 shipments, well, I can only refer to what we showed at the Capital Markets Day where we showed you the moderate numbers. You should take that number. Now that can change. And as a very wise person told me lately, I'm an optimist that worries a lot. So -- but I am optimistic on 2020 because I'm optimistic on the performance of the 3400C. And that means that if we can prove, and I think we will, that by the end of this year you have a EUV tool that has availability of over 90% with 170 wafers per hour and the economics for EUV are so convincing that I believe that our customers are definitely going to -- will look at their plans and you'll see which layers in Logic, but particularly at DRAM, are now eligible for EUV introduction. So I would refer to right now -- I would refer to the Capital Markets Day and the moderate market scenario we've put in there. It gives you the EUV number. But I -- that also tell you that I've been very much looking forward to the performance of the 3400C, which we have a lot of confidence. And that might trigger additional demand in 2020.

2020 年的出貨量，嗯，我只能引用我們在資本市場日（Capital Markets Day）所展示的溫和數字。你應該採用那個數字。當然那可能會改變。而且最近有位非常睿智的人告訴我：我是個會很擔心的樂觀主義者。所以——但我對 2020 年是樂觀的，因為我對 3400C 的表現感到樂觀。這意味著，如果我們能證明——我認為我們會——到今年年底你會有一套 EUV 設備可用率超過 90%、每小時 170 片晶圓，而且 EUV 的經濟性非常有說服力，我相信我們的客戶一定會——會重新檢視他們的計畫，你會看到在邏輯（Logic）哪些層，但特別是在 DRAM，現在已經適合導入 EUV。所以目前我會——我會以資本市場日以及我們放在那裡的溫和市場情境為準。那裡給了你 EUV 的數字。但我——那也告訴你，我一直非常期待 3400C 的表現，我們對它很有信心。而這可能會在 2020 年觸發額外需求。

The next question comes from Mr. Adithya Metuku.

下一個問題來自 Adithya Metuku 先生。

It's Bank of America. Two questions, if I could. Firstly, just looking through the ramp that you'll need to deliver on EUV and DUV, I just wanted to better understand what EUV tool capacity you will have in the second half of this year. My understanding was it will be 10 per quarter in 2020. So any color there would be very helpful. And then secondly, just trying to practically think about why R&D would come down in 2020 versus 2019 levels. Practically, what exactly will drive this cut? If you could give some color on that, that'd be helpful.

我是美國銀行（Bank of America）。如果可以的話我有兩個問題。第一，從你們需要在 EUV 與 DUV 的爬坡交付來看，我想更了解今年下半年你們會有多少 EUV 設備產能。我的理解是 2020 年每季會是 10 台。所以如果能提供一些補充說明會很有幫助。第二，我想從實務角度理解，為什麼 2020 年的研發（R&D）會低於 2019 年的水準。實務上，究竟是什麼會驅動這個削減？如果你能補充一些說明，會很有幫助。

Yes, I think the shipment capability, I think you're about right. The second half of the year, in Q4, we should have a tempered quarter run rate, which actually means, to one of the earlier questions, that the cycle time is coming down -- the factory cycle time. The integral cycle time of EUV, which includes also the supply chain, is still well over 12 months. But our integral cycle time in the factory should go down to anywhere between 15 and 18 weeks. So that is a big task for us. And that will actually mean that we will be able to do 10 shipments per quarter.

是的，我認為出貨能力方面，你的判斷大致正確。今年下半年，在第四季，我們應該會有一個較為溫和的季度運行速率（run rate），這其實也意味著——呼應先前其中一個問題——週期時間正在下降，也就是工廠週期時間。EUV 的整體週期時間（包含供應鏈）仍然遠超過 12 個月。但我們在工廠內的整體週期時間應該會降到約 15 到 18 週之間。所以這對我們來說是一項重大任務。而這實際上意味著我們將能做到每季出貨 10 台。

As it relates to R&D, an important portion of the acceleration of the R&D effort that we talked about is related to the introduction of the 3400C model, which, as we've already explained, is going to happen this year. So with that essentially done, that means that there is some leeway there and that we would be able to manage down the total R&D expenses because that research is done. And we're very well able to do that because, in addition to all headcount that Peter already talked about, there is a lot of farm-out that we have there. So in that way, we think we can manage that down to the number that we've guided for 2020.

至於研發（R&D），我們所談到的研發投入加速，其中一個重要部分與 3400C 機型的導入有關，而如同我們已經解釋過的，這會在今年發生。因此在那件事基本完成之後，就代表有一些空間，我們將能夠把研發總費用往下管理，因為那部分研究已經完成。而我們很有能力做到這一點，因為除了 Peter 先前提到的所有人力編制（headcount）之外，我們也有大量外包（farm-out）。所以透過這種方式，我們認為可以把它管理到我們對 2020 年所給出的指引數字。

Understood. And just a quick clarification on Q2 gross margin. You clearly said gross margins will improve in the second half. Would it be reasonable to assume that Q2 gross margin will be similar to the Q1 gross margin? Or would that be too pessimistic?

了解。另外就第二季毛利率做個快速釐清。你很清楚地說毛利率會在下半年改善。那麼是否可以合理假設第二季毛利率會與第一季毛利率相近？還是那樣會太悲觀？

We'll get there in a couple of months. As we said, we think the conditions that exist for Q1, to a very large extent, also exists for Q2 and the major recovery items that we discussed are going to kick in, in the second half.

我們幾個月後就會知道。如同我們所說，我們認為第一季存在的條件，在很大程度上第二季也同樣存在，而我們討論過的主要復甦項目會在下半年開始發酵。

The next question comes from Mr. Andrew Gardiner.

下一個問題來自 Andrew Gardiner 先生。

It's Andrew from Barclays. I had another one on EUV, also one follow-up and then another question. Peter, in response to an earlier question, you suggested that, indeed, there had not really been any change to delivery plans or shipment plans through the quarters of 2019. Clearly, you're still saying 30 units in total but I just wanted to, first of all, make sure that, indeed, your customers haven't really changed any plans on that front.

我是 Barclays 的 Andrew。我還有一個關於 EUV 的問題，另外一個追問，然後還有另一個問題。Peter，針對先前的一個問題，你表示確實在 2019 年各季度的交付計畫或出貨計畫並沒有真正改變。很明顯你們仍然說總共 30 台，但我想先確認一下，確實你們的客戶在這方面並沒有真正改變任何計畫。

Yes, that's correct. I mean, we haven't seen any customer pushbacks on the EUV shipments.

是的，沒錯。我的意思是，我們在EUV出貨方面，尚未看到任何客戶的反彈。

Okay. And in relation to that, there's some discussion in parts of the industry and parts of the financial markets about perhaps not so much concerns on your customer side but (inaudible) side but perhaps the customers' customer, some of the fabless guys with a little bit of trepidation as to how the ramp of EUV is going to go and what that means for high-volume manufacturing and their ability to get the chips out to the other side. Are you having -- are you hearing those fears? Are you having those discussions with some of the fabless chip vendors? What are you doing to help sort of, yes, satisfy those concerns?

好的。另外，關於這一點，產業界與金融市場的部分人士有一些討論：或許不是那麼擔心你們的客戶端，而是（聽不清）端，但可能是客戶的客戶——一些無晶圓廠（fabless）的業者——對EUV的爬坡進度，以及這對高量產（HVM）與他們把晶片順利交付到下游的能力意味著什麼，感到有點忐忑。你們有——你們有聽到這些擔憂嗎？你們有和一些無晶圓廠晶片供應商討論這些嗎？你們正在做些什麼來協助、也就是說，去滿足這些疑慮？

Well, the customers are our customers. They're a bit more distance, as you can imagine. We do have interactions with customers of customers, but that's largely on the road map and not so much on the operational situation at our customers. I mean, we don't discuss our customers' production capability or the capacity of our customers. We don't have that insight. Like I said, we do talk about the road map, and I think in the discussions that we've had with customers of our customers, it's also in our mind pretty clear that they all understand that EUV is here and it actually works. Now having said that, what is particularly important is not so much the lithographic performance. I think the lithographic performance of the machine itself is actually better. Every time, it's better than what was anticipated and that's -- that actually drives a lot of the design. So this is good. Now we are, of course, not yet at a availability and at a, let's say, maturity level that we would like to see for high-volume manufacturing. The 3400C, with all the improvements that are in there, there's also a lot of availability improvements in there, and that is going to be the proof of the pudding. And I think this will -- this is why I also said in an answer to an earlier question that the 3400C and its performance is going to be a big driver also in 2020. And we're confident that we're going to get there. And I can't imagine that customers of our customers that are -- even though they are further away from us, that they want to see this first. Well, they will get an opportunity to see this in the second half of the year.

嗯，客戶就是我們的客戶。如你所想，他們與我們之間會有一點距離。我們確實會與客戶的客戶互動，但主要是在技術路線圖（road map）上，而不是在我們客戶的營運狀況上。我的意思是，我們不會討論客戶的生產能力或產能。我們沒有那樣的洞察。如我所說，我們會談路線圖；而且我認為，在我們與客戶的客戶的討論中，我們也很清楚，他們都理解EUV已經到來，而且它確實可行。不過話說回來，特別重要的其實不是光刻性能本身。我認為機台本身的光刻性能其實更好。每一次都比原先預期更好，而這——這其實會驅動很多設計。所以這是好事。當然，我們目前還沒有達到我們希望看到、可用性（availability）以及成熟度（maturity）的水準，以支援高量產。3400C在其中加入了所有改進，也包含了大量可用性方面的提升，而這將會是檢驗成效的關鍵。我想這也——這也是為什麼我在回答先前一個問題時說，3400C及其表現也會成為2020年的一個重要驅動因素。我們有信心能達成。而我也不難想像，客戶的客戶——即使他們離我們更遠——也會想先看到這些成果。嗯，他們將在今年下半年有機會看到。

Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for one last question. If you're unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations Department with your question. Operator, may we have the last caller, please?

各位女士、先生，我們還有時間再問最後一個問題。如果您這通電話無法接通但仍有問題，歡迎隨時聯絡ASML投資人關係部門提出您的問題。接線員，請讓我們接最後一位來電者，好嗎？

Yes, sir. The last question will come from Mr. Varun Rajwanshi.

好的，先生。最後一個問題將由Varun Rajwanshi先生提出。

Sandeep Deshpande here at JPMorgan. My question is regarding, Peter, about the -- you mentioned in one of your press releases that your DRAM windows are looking at EUV at this point. My question is, with this throughput going to 170 wafers per hour, I mean, in 2019, you've got majority of your tools going to probably TSMC. Will the DRAM guys be able to contribute enough tools to do that 33 to 35 tools next year? Or you think there are going to be other contributors beyond DRAM in terms of EUV tools in 2020?

我是摩根大通（JPMorgan）的Sandeep Deshpande。Peter，我的問題是關於——你在其中一份新聞稿中提到，你們的DRAM客戶目前正在評估EUV。我的問題是，當產能（throughput）提升到每小時170片晶圓時，我是說，在2019年，你們大多數的設備可能會出貨給台積電（TSMC）。DRAM廠商是否能貢獻足夠的機台，讓明年達到33到35台的出貨？或者你認為在2020年，就EUV機台而言，除了DRAM之外還會有其他貢獻者？

No, I think DRAM is definitely an additional contributor. It will be small this year, as I said earlier. But they're going to be more -- it's just more than one DRAM manufacturer we're going to ship the retool to. So that is very much a function of our ability to bring the 3400C up to maturity levels that customers need for DRAM. I think we can do that. I think the -- everything that is -- that we have in front of us, which is the availability improvements in the EUV source, the higher productivity, the 170 wafers per hour, those are all ingredients that make it attractive for DRAM customers to start using EUV in DRAM. So I think there is little doubt there. So it's up to us. It's up to us and to the customer to make sure that what is in the 3400C can actually be used in high-volume manufacturing. And then that will drive 2020 demand also. It's really the success of the introduction that will drive this additional demand.

不，我認為DRAM絕對會是額外的貢獻者。如我先前所說，今年會很小。但他們會更多——因為我們要出貨改裝（retool）的不只一家DRAM製造商。所以這在很大程度上取決於我們能否把3400C提升到DRAM客戶所需的成熟度水準。我認為我們做得到。我想——我們眼前的一切，也就是EUV光源可用性的改善、更高的生產力、每小時170片晶圓，這些都是讓DRAM客戶開始在DRAM製程中採用EUV變得有吸引力的要素。所以我認為幾乎沒有疑問。所以這取決於我們。取決於我們以及客戶，確保3400C裡面的東西確實能用於高量產。然後這也會帶動2020年的需求。真正會驅動這個額外需求的，是導入的成功。

And then one quick follow-up on your gross margin. I mean, given the weaker first half gross margin with the -- your expectation that there'll be a big snapback in the second half, do you still think that your gross margin on an overall basis will grow in 2019 versus 2018?

接著針對你們的毛利率再快速追問一下。我的意思是，考量上半年毛利率較弱，而你們預期下半年會大幅反彈，你們是否仍認為2019年整體毛利率會較2018年成長？

You can do the math. I mean, you have 6 months of pushback in the overall gross margin. You have to be pretty -- it has to be pretty high to make that --- to make it all up. Now what we actually said is, I think the recovery, driven by all the reasons that Roger talked about, I think we will see gross margin exiting the year in Q4 that are trending nicely towards the 50%-plus that we said we would see in 2020.

你可以自己算。我的意思是，整體毛利率有6個月的延後（pushback）。你得要相當——必須要相當高，才能把那——把缺口全部補回來。不過我們實際上說的是，我認為在Roger提到的所有原因帶動下，我們會看到毛利率在第四季、也就是年底時的水準，會很不錯地朝向我們所說2020年會看到的50%以上趨勢前進。

Now on behalf of ASML's Board of Management, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

現在我謹代表ASML管理董事會，感謝各位今天與會。接線員，若您能正式結束本次電話會議，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Of course, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2018 fourth quarter and annual financial results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your line.

當然，先生。各位女士、先生，ASML 2018年第四季與全年財務結果電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛斷電話。