艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the ASML 2020 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on July 15, 2020. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加 ASML 2020 年第二季財務業績電話會議，會議於 2020 年 7 月 15 日舉行。(接線員指示)

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想把電話會議交給 Skip Miller 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2020 second quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order they are received.

謝謝，接線員。各位好，歡迎大家。我是 Skip Miller，ASML 投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink，以及財務長 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2020 年第二季業績。本次電話會議時間為 60 分鐘，提問將依收到的順序進行。

This call is also being broadcast live over the internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call. Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

本次電話會議也將於 asml.com 透過網路進行即時直播。管理層開場致詞的逐字稿以及電話會議重播，將在本次電話會議結束後不久於我們的網站提供。在開始之前，我想提醒各位，管理層在本次電話會議中的評論將包含符合聯邦證券法定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險與不確定性。關於風險因素的討論，我建議各位查閱今日新聞稿與簡報中所載的安全港聲明（可於 asml.com 取得），以及 ASML 的 Form 20-F 年報與其他向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

接下來，我想把電話會議交給 Peter Wennink，請他做簡短的開場介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2020 results conference call. First of all, I hope all of you and your families are healthy and safe. And before we start our normal quarterly results review, I would like to provide you a brief update on the COVID-19 situation. I think thanks to the commitment, engagement and creativity of our people, we managed the quarter very well and this translated into growth in both revenue and profitability in the quarter. And Roger will, of course, provide some more details on those results.

謝謝你，Skip。各位好，歡迎大家，也感謝各位參加我們 2020 年第二季業績電話會議。首先，我希望各位以及你們的家人都健康平安。在我們開始例行的季度業績回顧之前，我想先就 COVID-19 的情況提供一個簡短更新。我認為，得益於同仁們的承諾、投入與創意，我們把本季管理得非常好，並轉化為本季營收與獲利能力的雙雙成長。當然，Roger 也會就這些結果提供更多細節。

Although we experienced some challenges early in the quarter around supply delays and increased absenteeism, we did not encounter any new disruptions due to COVID-19. We continue to operate with special measures in place around isolation and contamination protocols to ensure the safety of our employees and to reduce the risk of operational disruption. Even though this created some initial inefficiencies and production delays, operations capabilities are largely back to normal.

雖然我們在本季初期曾面臨供應延遲與缺勤率上升等挑戰，但並未因 COVID-19 遭遇任何新的中斷。我們持續採取特殊措施，包括隔離與防污染作業規範，以確保員工安全並降低營運中斷風險。儘管這在初期造成一些效率降低與生產延遲，但營運能力已大致恢復正常。

Regarding transportation, logistics and customer support, we were able to continue to secure flights to meet customer shipment requirements, and we have managed to support our customers in this challenging environment. We have significantly increased the capability of our teams in the field to more independently support the customer and continue to deploy more novel, remote diagnostics and augmented reality support. Maturity of this remote technology has accelerated throughout this COVID period, and we expect to deploy even more of this in the future.

在運輸、物流與客戶支援方面，我們得以持續確保航班，以滿足客戶出貨需求，並在這個充滿挑戰的環境中支援客戶。我們大幅提升前線團隊更獨立支援客戶的能力，並持續部署更多新型的遠端診斷與擴增實境支援。在這段 COVID 期間，這些遠端技術的成熟度加速提升，我們預期未來將部署更多此類技術。

In summary, we've been able to successfully navigate to the current environment and our operations capabilities are largely back to normal. And -- but as COVID-19 is not yet behind us, we will remain vigilant to ensure the safety of our employees while providing the best possible customer support.

總結來說，我們已成功因應目前的環境，營運能力也大致恢復正常。但由於 COVID-19 尚未完全結束，我們將保持警覺，在確保員工安全的同時，提供最佳的客戶支援。

Thanks again to our people and everyone in our supply chain who did an outstanding job servicing our customers during these challenging times. And now I would like to turn to our normal quarterly results process. And before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the second quarter as well as provide our view on the coming quarters. Roger will start with a review of our Q2 financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook. Roger, if you will?

再次感謝我們的同仁以及供應鏈中的每一位，在這段艱難時期為服務客戶所做出的傑出努力。接下來我想進入我們例行的季度業績流程。在開始問答環節之前，Roger 和我將先就第二季提供概覽與一些評論，並分享我們對未來幾季的看法。Roger 將先回顧第二季財務表現，並補充短期展望；我則會以對當前商業環境與未來業務展望的額外評論來完成開場介紹。Roger，請你開始？

Thank you, Peter. Welcome, everyone. I will first review the second quarter financial results and then provide guidance on the third quarter of 2020.

謝謝你，Peter。各位好，歡迎大家。我將先回顧第二季財務結果，接著提供 2020 年第三季的指引。

Net sales came in at EUR 3.3 billion. We executed quite well considering the risks in the COVID-19 environment, translating to strong growth of more than 35% over Q1. We shipped 9 EUV systems and recognized revenue on 7 systems in the quarter. Taking into account the additional approximately EUR 260 million of revenue from the net 2 systems we didn't recognize in Q2, this would hypothetically have resulted in revenue of around EUR 3.6 billion and a growth of around 50%.

淨銷售額為 33 億歐元。考量 COVID-19 環境中的風險，我們執行表現相當出色，使得相較第一季強勁成長超過 35%。本季我們出貨 9 台 EUV 系統，並對其中 7 台認列營收。若將第二季未認列的淨 2 台系統所對應、約 2.6 億歐元的額外營收納入考量，假設性地看，營收將約為 36 億歐元，成長約 50%。

Similar to Q1, some EUV systems were expedited for shipments without factory acceptance testing in Q2. We expect to recognize revenue on these systems at site acceptance in the second half of the year. We shipped 9 EUV systems in the quarter with 4 systems not receiving factory acceptance testing, meaning 5 systems recognized revenue upon shipment. For the 2 systems that shipped in Q1 but did not receive factory acceptance testing before shipment, we were able to complete customer site acceptance tests and recognized revenue this quarter, bringing the total to 7 EUV revenue systems in Q2.

與第一季類似，第二季有部分 EUV 系統在未完成工廠驗收測試的情況下加速出貨。我們預期將在下半年於客戶現場驗收時對這些系統認列營收。本季我們出貨 9 台 EUV 系統，其中 4 台未進行工廠驗收測試，意味著有 5 台在出貨時認列營收。至於第一季出貨但在出貨前未完成工廠驗收測試的 2 台系統，我們已完成客戶現場驗收測試並於本季認列營收，使第二季 EUV 營收認列系統總數達到 7 台。

Net system sales of EUR 2.4 billion was again more weighted towards Logic at 62% with the remaining 38% for Memory. Although Logic remains very strong, Memory has been growing over the last 3 quarters as a percentage of system sales. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 887 million. This brings the total of installed base revenue in the first half to around EUR 1.7 billion.

系統淨銷售額為 24 億歐元，結構再次偏向邏輯（Logic），占 62%，其餘 38%為記憶體（Memory）。雖然邏輯仍然非常強勁，但記憶體在過去 3 個季度中占系統銷售的比重持續上升。本季裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）銷售額為 8.87 億歐元。這使得上半年裝機基礎營收合計約為 17 億歐元。

Gross margin for the quarter was 48.2%, a significant improvement over Q1, primarily due to deep UV mix and an improvement of the EUV installed base gross margin. On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 567 million and SG&A expenses came in at EUR 131 million. The effective tax rate was higher, 18.5% based on a one-off tax assessment recorded in Q2. Net income in Q2 was EUR 751 million, representing 22.6% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 1.79.

本季毛利率為 48.2%，較第一季顯著改善，主要受惠於深紫外（DUV）產品組合，以及 EUV 裝機基礎毛利率的提升。在營業費用方面，研發費用為 5.67 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政（SG&A）費用為 1.31 億歐元。由於第二季記錄了一次性稅務評估，有效稅率較高，為 18.5%。第二季淨利為 7.51 億歐元，占淨銷售額 22.6%，每股盈餘（EPS）為 1.79 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. ASML paid EUR 565 million in dividends or EUR 1.35 per ordinary share in Q2 together with the interim dividend of EUR 1.05 per ordinary share paid in Q4 '19, this resulted in a total dividend for 2019 of EUR 2.40 per ordinary share. We ended last quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 4.4 billion, which is EUR 300 million higher than Q1.

接著看資產負債表。ASML 在第二季支付股利 5.65 億歐元，或每股普通股 1.35 歐元；加上於 2019 年第四季支付的每股普通股 1.05 歐元期中股利，使得 2019 年合計股利為每股普通股 2.40 歐元。我們在上一季末的現金、約當現金及短期投資為 44 億歐元，較第一季增加 3 億歐元。

Moving to the order book. Q2 system bookings came in at EUR 1.1 billion, including EUR 461 million from 3 EUV systems. Order intake was balanced between market segments with both Logic and Memory at 50%. Logic demand continues to be strong with Memory increasing as a percentage of bookings over the past 3 quarters.

接著談訂單簿。第二季系統接單金額為11億歐元，其中包含3套EUV系統的4.61億歐元。訂單流入在各市場區隔之間維持均衡，邏輯與記憶體各占50%。邏輯需求持續強勁，而記憶體在過去3個季度中占接單的比重有所提高。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the third quarter of 2020. We expect Q3 total net sales of between EUR 3.6 billion and EUR 3.8 billion. We expect our Q3 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 850 million, which is driven by strong demand for field upgrades and growing service revenue with a more meaningful contribution from EUV service.

接下來，我想談談我們對2020年第三季的展望。我們預期第三季總淨銷售額介於36億至38億歐元之間。我們預期第三季已裝機基礎管理（Installed Base Management）銷售額約為8.5億歐元，主要受現場升級需求強勁以及服務營收成長所帶動，其中EUV服務的貢獻將更為顯著。

Gross margin for Q3 is expected to be between 47% and 48%, which is a little below Q2, primarily due to deep UV mix with fewer immersion systems. We've previously highlighted a number of levers that could positively impact gross margins in the second half. These levers being a richer mix of deep UV, more immersion less dry, primarily driven by the Memory recovery; second, growing EUV service revenue; and third, improved immersion margins from our 2050 system. These levers remain and provide the opportunity to achieve 50% gross margin in Q4.

第三季毛利率預期介於47%至48%之間，較第二季略低，主要是因為深紫外（DUV）產品組合中浸潤式系統較少。我們先前已強調若干可在下半年正向影響毛利率的槓桿。這些槓桿包括：第一，更佳的深紫外（DUV）產品組合、浸潤式多於乾式，主要由記憶體復甦所驅動；第二，EUV服務營收成長；第三，我們2050系統帶來的浸潤式毛利率改善。這些槓桿仍然存在，並提供在第四季達成50%毛利率的機會。

The expected R&D expenses for Q3 are around EUR 545 million, and SG&A is expected to come in around EUR 140 million. Our estimated 2020 annualized effective tax rate is still expected to be around 14%.

第三季預期研發費用約為5.45億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）預期約為1.4億歐元。我們估計2020年年化有效稅率仍預期約為14%。

Finally, I would like to talk about capital allocation and working capital. Our capital allocation policy remains unchanged. In the next few years, we expect to generate a significant amount of free cash flow, cash that will not be required to support the future growth of our business will be returned to our shareholders in a combination of growing dividends and share buybacks.

最後，我想談談資本配置與營運資金。我們的資本配置政策維持不變。未來幾年，我們預期將產生可觀的自由現金流；不需要用於支持公司未來成長的現金，將透過提高股利與股票回購的組合方式回饋股東。

Regarding investments in our business, we plan to have CapEx at levels previously communicated in support of future technology and required expansions. Regarding working capital, we are working our way through a transition period. We come from a period where contracts did not include down payments and actually provided extended payment terms for customers given the maturity curve that our EUV tools were on and are moving into a direction where we ask for down payments of EUV tools, reflecting the long lead times and early supply chain commitments that ASML has to enter into. This means a temporarily higher level of working capital in 2020 with a plan to significantly reduce this level in 2021. All in all, we expect to see a significant increase in the generation of free cash flow in the course of the second half of this year. Once this occurs and the risk profile for our entire ecosystem has returned to acceptable levels, then we will resume the execution of share buyback in line with the plans that we have communicated earlier this year, EUR 6 billion over 3 years.

就公司投資而言，我們計畫將資本支出（CapEx）維持在先前已溝通的水準，以支持未來技術與必要的擴產。就營運資金而言，我們正處於一段轉換期。我們過去的合約不包含預付款，且鑑於我們EUV設備所處的成熟度曲線，實際上也提供客戶較長的付款條件；目前我們正朝向要求EUV設備預付款的方向前進，以反映較長的交期以及ASML必須提前做出的供應鏈承諾。這意味著2020年的營運資金水準將暫時較高，並計畫在2021年大幅降低該水準。總體而言，我們預期今年下半年自由現金流的產生將顯著增加。一旦發生此情況，且我們整個生態系的風險輪廓回到可接受水準後，我們將依照今年稍早已溝通的計畫恢復執行股票回購，即3年共60億歐元。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

接下來，我想把電話會議交回給Peter。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, we had a strong quarter with over 35% growth in revenue and improved profitability. In this challenging macroeconomic environment, we saw growth in both Logic and Memory markets, which is a reflection of our customers' drive to innovate and continue to invest in future technology nodes. With significant work-from-home and remote learning activities continuing, segments such as data center and communication infrastructure continue to be strong. Demand for consumer-related electronics, for example, smartphones, maybe under some near-term stress due to the economic impact from COVID. And our customers indicate they see continued strength in end markets, requiring advanced nodes, and this is reflected in our stable demand.

謝謝你，Roger。如Roger所強調，我們本季表現強勁，營收成長超過35%，獲利能力也有所提升。在這個充滿挑戰的總體經濟環境下，我們在邏輯與記憶體市場都看到成長，反映客戶推動創新並持續投資於未來技術節點。隨著大量居家辦公與遠距學習活動持續進行，資料中心與通訊基礎設施等區隔仍然強勁。消費性電子相關需求（例如智慧型手機）可能因COVID帶來的經濟影響而在短期內承受一些壓力。我們的客戶表示，他們看到終端市場持續強勁、需要先進節點；這也反映在我們穩定的需求上。

For 2020, our growth expectations that we indicated at the start of the year are largely unchanged despite the disruptions caused by the worldwide COVID-induced crisis. We, therefore, expect a year of double-digit growth in sales and profitability. In Logic, customers continue to ramp advanced technology nodes, 7 and 5-nanometer. In support of the buildup of the digital infrastructure, driving end market applications such as 5G, AI and high-performance compute, requiring leading-edge equipment, which have longer lead times and qualification schedules.

就2020年而言，儘管全球COVID引發的危機造成干擾，我們在年初所提出的成長預期大致不變。因此，我們仍預期今年銷售與獲利將呈現兩位數成長。在邏輯方面，客戶持續擴產先進技術節點，包括7奈米與5奈米。為了支持數位基礎設施的建置，帶動5G、AI與高效能運算等終端應用，這些應用需要領先的設備，且其交期與認證時程更長。

We expect Logic demand to remain healthy, which continues to drive demand for EUV systems as well as our other products. In Memory, customers are continuing to indicate that they are seeing signs of recovery, driven by healthy demand in data centers and expectations of improved demand in consumer electronics. Increasing lithography utilization levels support this view and with this continued trend in mind, it's understandable that we see additional demand in the second half of the year. This is supported in our bookings, with Memory increasing as a percentage of bookings over the past 3 quarters.

我們預期邏輯需求將維持健康，並持續帶動EUV系統以及我們其他產品的需求。在記憶體方面，客戶持續表示他們看到復甦跡象，主要由資料中心的健康需求以及對消費性電子需求改善的預期所驅動。微影設備稼動率的提升支持了這一觀點；在此持續趨勢下，我們在下半年看到額外需求是可以理解的。這也反映在我們的接單上，過去3個季度記憶體占接單的比重有所提高。

Sales to China continued to grow and accounted for 23% of our systems revenue this quarter. This is driven by demand from both Logic and Memory customers in China, and we expect sales growth from the China region this year. Regarding changes to the U.S. export rules that went into effect at the end of June, we expect minimal impact to our business. And regarding the impact of recent U.S. restrictions, it's difficult to determine how near-term dynamics will evolve, but when you look at the end-market demand and the growing digital economy with secular growth drivers, like 5G, AI and high-performance compute, the demand for semiconductors for these products will continue and it will fuel future innovations. Wafers and products to support this technology and innovation will be produced somewhere in the world, and it will certainly require advanced lithography.

本季對中國的銷售持續成長，並占我們系統營收的23%。這主要由中國邏輯與記憶體客戶的需求所帶動，我們預期今年來自中國地區的銷售將成長。關於6月底生效的美國出口規則變更，我們預期對業務影響極小。至於近期美國限制措施的影響，短期動態如何演變仍難以判斷；但從終端市場需求以及由5G、AI與高效能運算等長期成長驅動因素所帶動的數位經濟成長來看，這些產品對半導體的需求將持續，並將推動未來創新。支撐此技術與創新的晶圓與產品將在全球某處生產，而這必然需要先進微影技術。

On our installed base business, we still expect significant growth this year. First half of the year, we realized revenue of around EUR 1.7 billion, and we expect a similar level of business in the second half of the year. Services business will continue to scale as our installed base grows, and EUV will contribute in a more meaningful way to service revenue as these systems run more wafers in volume manufacturing.

在已裝機基礎業務方面，我們仍預期今年將有顯著成長。今年上半年，我們實現約17億歐元的營收，並預期下半年業務量將達到相近水準。隨著已裝機基礎擴大，服務業務將持續擴張；隨著這些系統在量產中處理更多晶圓，EUV將以更具意義的方式貢獻服務營收。

We expect significant demand for upgrades as customers utilize upgrades to increase capacity and improve imaging and overlay performance. On EUV, this technology has now entered the realm of high-volume manufacturing and is an integral part of our core operational activities as evidenced by the large EUV share of our sales in Q2. We've successfully implemented the improvement to the modular vessel we discussed last quarter, and this vessel is designed to deliver higher availability. With 9 shipments this quarter, we have shipped 13 systems in the first half of the year. And as COVID-related transportation and support risks are now lower, we plan to resume the normal qualification process, including factory acceptance testing, meaning we expect to recognize revenue at shipments on all systems in Q3.

我們預期升級需求將相當可觀，因為客戶會利用升級來提升產能並改善成像與疊對（overlay）效能。在EUV方面，這項技術如今已進入高量產（HVM）領域，並成為我們核心營運活動不可或缺的一部分，從第二季EUV在我們銷售中的高占比即可看出。我們已成功導入上季討論過的模組化真空腔體改良，此腔體旨在提供更高的可用率。本季出貨9套，使我們上半年累計出貨13套系統。此外，隨著COVID相關的運輸與支援風險降低，我們計畫恢復正常的認證流程，包括工廠驗收測試（FAT），這表示我們預期在第三季所有系統於出貨時即可認列營收。

We plan to be back on track with our cycle time reduction plan in Q3, and I feel comfortable about our capacity to produce and ship double-digit numbers of EUV systems per quarter. We're therefore still targeting a revenue of around EUR 4.5 billion on 35 systems this year.

我們計畫在第三季讓我們的縮短週期時間計畫回到正軌，而且我對於我們每季生產並出貨兩位數台EUV系統的產能感到有把握。因此，我們今年仍以35套系統、約45億歐元的營收為目標。

On EUV margins, after more than a decade of investments in EUV, we're well on track to improve profitability in both systems and service. EUV service margins are expected to break even in the second half of the year, and EUV system gross margin is on track to meet or exceed the 40% target for the year, still planning a capacity of 45 to 50 systems next year. This is planned within our existing factory footprint by reducing cycle time in our factory to around 20 weeks by the end of this year.

關於EUV毛利，在投入EUV超過十年的投資之後，我們正穩步提升系統與服務兩方面的獲利能力。預期EUV服務毛利將在下半年達到損益兩平，而EUV系統毛利率也正朝著達成或超越全年40%目標的方向前進；同時，我們仍規劃明年產能為45到50套系統。這項規劃將在現有廠房占地內完成，方法是將工廠週期時間在今年底前縮短至約20週。

We currently have a backlog of 54 systems with 28 system orders for 2021 delivery, covering over half of this capacity, and we expect orders to continue in the second half of the year in support of the 2021 demand. Understandably, customers are currently reviewing how COVID will impact the global economy. And as we proceed through the second half of this year, we will have a better view of how this ultimately translates to the technology ramp plans next year.

我們目前有54套系統的在手訂單，其中有28套為2021年交付的訂單，已涵蓋超過一半的產能；我們預期下半年訂單仍將持續，以支撐2021年的需求。可以理解的是，客戶目前正在評估COVID將如何影響全球經濟。隨著我們進入今年下半年，我們將更清楚了解這最終會如何反映到明年的技術爬坡計畫上。

In our deep UV business, we shipped the first NXT:1470 to a customer. This is the first dry NXT system. Building on the NXT immersion platform with significant improvements in matched machine overlay and productivity, helping our customers to deal with the increasing cost of complexity when introducing new nodes. The higher output per fab area from an NXT system also maximizes fab capacity and therefore, customer profitability.

在我們的深紫外（DUV）業務方面，我們已向客戶出貨首台NXT:1470。這是第一套乾式NXT系統。它以NXT浸潤式平台為基礎，在匹配機台疊對精度與生產力方面有顯著提升，協助客戶在導入新節點時因應日益上升的複雜度成本。NXT系統在單位晶圓廠面積上的更高產出也能最大化晶圓廠產能，進而提升客戶獲利能力。

Our applications business shipped the first generation multi-beam inspection system, the eScan 1000, targeted for 5-nanometer nodes and beyond. The eScan 1000 demonstrated successful multi-beam operation, simultaneously scanning with 9 beams. The eScan 1000 will increase throughput up to 600% compared to the single e-beam inspection systems targeted for in-line defect inspection applications.

我們的應用業務已出貨第一代多束檢測系統eScan 1000，目標鎖定5奈米節點及更先進節點。eScan 1000已展示成功的多束運作，可同時以9束電子束進行掃描。相較於用於線上缺陷檢測應用的單一電子束檢測系統，eScan 1000可將吞吐量提升最高達600%。

In summary, although the macroeconomic environment provides some challenges, we see stable demand and a strong second half. Our 2020 sales growth expectations are largely unchanged from the beginning of the year. We expect Logic demand to continue to be healthy with an expected Memory recovery in the second half, and we expect a continuation of the significant growth in our installed base business as already seen in the first half of the year. Meaning, we still expect double-digit growth in sales and profitability in 2020. Although we, of course, do not yet know the full impact of COVID on global GDP and how this will translate to end market demand in the coming year, the COVID crisis told us that the expanding digital economy with secular drivers such as 5G, AI and high-performance compute provide significant opportunities over the long term. Our 2025 growth trajectory is, therefore, still very much intact.

總結而言，儘管總體經濟環境帶來一些挑戰，我們仍看到需求穩定且下半年表現強勁。我們對2020年銷售成長的預期，與年初相比大致不變。我們預期邏輯（Logic）需求將持續健康，下半年記憶體（Memory）可望復甦；同時，我們也預期已裝機基礎（Installed Base）業務將延續上半年所見的顯著成長。也就是說，我們仍預期2020年銷售與獲利將呈現兩位數成長。當然，我們尚未完全掌握COVID對全球GDP的全面影響，以及這將如何轉化為來年終端市場需求；但COVID危機也讓我們看到，擴張中的數位經濟在5G、AI與高效能運算等長期結構性驅動因素帶動下，長期而言提供了可觀的機會。因此，我們的2025年成長軌跡仍然非常完整。

With that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

接下來，我們很樂意回答各位的提問。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，Roger和Peter。接線員稍後會向各位說明問答環節的流程。(接線員指示)

Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

那麼接線員，請提供最後的說明，然後請進入第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Mr. Mitch Steven.

(接線員指示) 第一個問題來自Mitch Steven先生。

Mitch Steves from RBC Capital Markets. So I'm just going to ask the 2 upfront. The first one is just the commentary about Memory demand being -- coming in stronger and you guys are still seeing high-quality bookings in Logic. So first question is just basically for '21, is there a scenario where you could actually see growth in both DUV and EUV units in kind of a more bullish scenario? Or are you seeing customers kind of opt to just buy more EUV systems?

我是RBC Capital Markets的Mitch Steves。我先問兩個問題。第一個是關於你們提到記憶體需求——正在變得更強，而你們在邏輯方面仍看到高品質的接單。所以第一個問題基本上是：針對2021年，在較為樂觀的情境下，是否可能同時看到DUV與EUV出貨台數都成長？還是你們看到客戶傾向於只買更多EUV系統？

And then secondly, I just wanted to double-click on kind of the gross margin comments. I thought that was just to be up a little bit more in Q3, so what is kind of the trajectory in both EUV and the corporate margin as we get to Q4 and beyond?

第二個，我想再深入追問一下你們對毛利率的評論。我原本以為第三季毛利率會再略微上升一些；那麼，隨著我們走向第四季及之後，EUV與公司整體毛利率的走勢大概會是如何？

Yes. I think as your question directed for '21, you just started your question with Memory demand picking up and strong and healthy Logic. And then the question for '21 is directed at both the combined business of Memory and Logic or at one of those, just as an explanation.

是的。我想就你針對2021年的問題，你一開始提到記憶體需求回升，以及邏輯需求強勁且健康。那麼你對2021年的提問，是針對記憶體與邏輯合併後的整體業務，還是只針對其中之一？我先確認一下。

No, so same for -- so total DUV and -- deep UV and total EUV units, is there a scenario where both of those are up due to high demand? Or does it have to be kind of one versus the other?

不是，我的意思是——就總DUV（深紫外）與總EUV的出貨台數而言，在需求很強的情況下，是否存在兩者都上升的情境？還是必須是此消彼長？

No. I think if you see a continued uptick of the Memory market, which will have a positive effect on the deep UV immersion systems, you could see both of them, yes? So it's really a matter of a strong demand continuing Logic and a continued strengthening of the Memory market. I could see that happening. But in general, of course, the more EUV layers that are chosen by our customers will take away deep UV layers. So you could argue if there is and if it's only a technology transition, you would probably see a cannibalization of deep UV versus EUV. But if you have a capacity ramp, then both in Memory, and you see the capacity ramp in Logic continuing, then you could see both numbers up.

不會。我認為如果你看到記憶體市場持續回升，這將對深紫外浸潤式系統帶來正面影響，那麼兩者都可能上升，是的。所以這其實取決於邏輯端強勁需求是否延續，以及記憶體市場是否持續走強。我可以想像這種情況會發生。但一般而言，當然，客戶選擇的EUV層數越多，就會取代深紫外的層數。因此你也可以說，如果只是技術轉換、且僅此而已，你大概會看到深紫外相對於EUV被侵蝕（cannibalization）。但如果你同時有產能爬坡——記憶體端有產能爬坡，且邏輯端的產能爬坡也持續，那麼你就可能看到兩個數字都上升。

Let me take the question on the -- on gross margin, and maybe the best way to do it is just give you the bridge for -- between the 3 quarters. So moving from Q1 to Q2, the improvement that we saw in gross margin. Two main drivers, I would say, one is the deep UV, the deep UV mix; and secondly, IBM, Installed Base Management margins. So those are the primary drivers to get you from the gross margin we had in Q1 up to the 48.2% that we recognized in Q2.

我來回答毛利率的問題；也許最好的方式是提供你三個季度之間的變動橋接。從第一季到第二季，我們看到毛利率改善。我會說主要有兩個驅動因素：第一是深紫外（DUV）的產品組合；第二是IBM（Installed Base Management，已裝機基礎管理）毛利率。這些是讓毛利率從第一季提升到第二季我們認列的48.2%的主要原因。

So then from Q2 to Q3, you see a slight deterioration in the gross margin. And that really is down to the mix in deep UV, where we expect to have less immersion systems in that mix in Q3 in comparison to Q2. And then going from Q3 to Q4, where, again, as we said, we think that the 50% up is achievable in the current plans that we see. Main drivers there, again, immersion, but this time positively, so there would be more immersion in the mix. And secondly, an important driver there, again, would be EUV service gross margin. A result of 2 things, on the one hand, bringing down the cost per EUV machine. And on the other hand, as Peter alluded to it, the fact that these tools are getting into high-volume manufacturing, which means that also the wafer output is increasing as a result of that, the revenue will increase as well. So that, in essence, gives you the bridges over the 3 quarters and the basis for the potential to get to 50% up in Q4.

接著從第二季到第三季，你會看到毛利率略為惡化。這主要是因為深紫外的產品組合所致：我們預期第三季的組合中，浸潤式系統占比會比第二季更低。然後從第三季到第四季——如同我們所說，依照目前看到的計畫，我們認為毛利率達到50%以上是可實現的。主要驅動因素同樣是浸潤式系統，但這次是正向影響，也就是組合中浸潤式占比會提高。第二個重要驅動因素仍會是EUV服務毛利率。這來自兩件事：一方面，降低每台EUV機台的成本。另一方面，如Peter所提到，這些設備正進入高量產（HVM），意味著晶圓產出也會因此增加，營收也會隨之提升。因此，以上基本上就是三個季度之間的橋接，以及第四季毛利率有機會達到50%以上的基礎。

Next question is from Mr. Andrew Gardiner.

下一個問題來自 Andrew Gardiner 先生。

Andrew Gardiner from Barclays. Roger, one for you, if I could, just on your comments on the cash flow and capital allocation. You said for some of the points, I think CapEx, in particular, that you expect it at previously communicated levels, so that's clear. But in terms of working capital, can you help sort of quantify the pressure a bit more for us. Clearly, there was significant working capital outflow during the first half of the year. Is that expected to continue into third quarter, perhaps start to improve by fourth quarter? Just a bit of help around that would be useful. And also, the point you made about once this sort of transition is clear, then you would plan to return to the share buyback. Is that something we could expect by the fourth quarter of this year? Or is it more likely to be into next year? And again, it's sort of is there any metrics you can give us that could help guide there?

巴克萊的 Andrew Gardiner。Roger，我想請教你一題，關於你對現金流與資本配置的評論。你提到某些項目，我想特別是資本支出（CapEx），你預期會維持在先前已溝通的水準，所以這點很清楚。但就營運資金而言，你能否協助我們更量化地說明一下壓力有多大。顯然，上半年出現了相當顯著的營運資金流出。這種情況是否預期會延續到第三季，並可能在第四季開始改善？如果能就這方面提供一些協助會很有用。另外，你提到一旦這類轉換變得明確，你們就會計畫恢復庫藏股回購。我們是否可以預期在今年第四季就會發生？還是更可能要到明年？同樣地，你是否能提供任何指標來協助我們判斷？

Yes. Sure, Andrew. Happy to do that. So you're right. If you look at the first half, you would look at a negative free cash flow, you would actually see that in the second quarter, it already started to become positive. But if you look at the full half year, it would be a negative free cash flow, not unlike I should add what we saw in last year. And last year, you saw a similar pattern. The expectation is that in the second half, we will -- that will change and there will be a significant in working -- in both the working capital but also in the free cash flow generation. And the main reasons are the reasons that I pointed out in the initial comments, so it's associated with the fact that on the one hand, we are entering into a period where we are actually asking down payments on EUV tools. But that takes time and that takes contractual renegotiations. So that's one element.

是的。當然可以，Andrew。很樂意說明。所以你說得沒錯。如果你看上半年，你會看到自由現金流為負；但其實在第二季，它已經開始轉為正值。不過若看整個上半年，自由現金流仍為負，順帶一提，這與我們去年看到的情況並無二致。去年你也看到類似的型態。我們的預期是下半年我們將——情況會改變，無論是在營運資金，或是在自由現金流的產生上，都會有顯著改善。主要原因就是我在開場評論中指出的那些：一方面，這與我們進入一個開始要求 EUV 工具預付款的期間有關。但這需要時間，也需要合約重新協商。這是其中一個因素。

And the second element is that based on the old contracts and the old contracts on the base of which we're still executing quite some shipments, those actually provided for extended payment to customers. So that's the situation that we find ourselves in on the, let's say, the accounts receivable side. Secondly, as you will appreciate with the ramp that we're doing and with the increase that we're seeing in EUV, obviously, that also means that from an inventory perspective, that leads to an uptick as well. So those are the 2 main dynamics why it is the way it is.

第二個因素是，依據舊合約——而我們目前仍在依據這些舊合約執行相當多的出貨——那些合約其實提供了對客戶的延長付款條件。所以這就是我們在應收帳款端所面臨的情況。其次，如你所理解，隨著我們正在進行的產能爬坡，以及我們在 EUV 看到的增長，顯然這也意味著從庫存角度來看，也會帶來上升。因此，這就是為什麼會呈現目前狀況的兩個主要動態。

So my expectation is, and I won't give specific numbers, but my expectation is that, indeed, you will see a significant recovery of the free cash flow generation in the second half. More or less along the lines of what we saw last year, where you also saw a very significant recovery. Maybe not at that level. Last year, it was pretty spectacular. The way it picked up in the second half given the ramp profile and given the AR profile that I just talked about, I expect a little less in the second half of this year in comparison to last year, but nonetheless, a very significant improvement. And once we see that, and once we see that, that free cash flow generation starts to become healthy again, we also conclude that the main risk our ecosystem are more or less under control.

因此我的預期是——我不會給出具體數字——但我的預期是，你確實會在下半年看到自由現金流產生能力的顯著回升。大致上會沿著我們去年看到的路徑，去年也出現非常顯著的回升。也許不會到那個程度。去年相當驚人。考量到我剛才提到的爬坡曲線以及應收帳款（AR）的狀況，我預期今年下半年的回升幅度會比去年小一些，但仍然會是非常顯著的改善。而一旦我們看到這點，並且看到自由現金流產生開始再次回到健康水準，我們也會得出結論：我們生態系的主要風險大致上已受到控制。

At that point in time, yes, we do believe that -- and we can start executing on share buyback again. And that could be this year. That could definitely be in Q4. And our expectations as it relates to the free cash flow generation would be in line with that model. That indeed, in Q4, we can start generating and can start executing on share buyback again.

在那個時間點，是的，我們確實相信——我們就可以再次開始執行庫藏股回購。而這可能會在今年。確實可能在第四季。而我們對自由現金流產生的預期也會與那個模型一致。也就是說，確實在第四季，我們可以開始產生（自由現金流），並且可以再次開始執行庫藏股回購。

Okay. And just a quick follow-up. I mean it's a fairly minor point. Given the COVID-19 issues this year, not only did you stopped the buyback, but of course, you didn't declare an interim dividend either, which you had started with last year. Would the intent be to return to that sort of phasing in '21?

好的。再快速追問一下。我的意思是，這算是相對次要的一點。鑑於今年 COVID-19 的影響，你們不僅停止了回購，當然也沒有宣告中期股利，而你們去年已開始這麼做。你們的意圖是否是在 2021 年回到那種分期節奏？

No, no, just to be clear. So the interim dividend that we do is an interim dividend that we would do in the -- at the end of the year. So what we said, we declared an interim dividend in November of last year and we said that, that was the plan that we had. So it's not like -- so we had an interim dividend in November. Then we had the final dividend in April right after the AGM, and that's the pattern that, in essence, we are looking at again. So if everything remains normal, then you would see that pattern repeated in the next year. So November interim dividend and final dividend in April.

不，不，先澄清一下。我們所做的中期股利，是在——在年底時進行的中期股利。所以我們說的是：我們在去年 11 月宣告了中期股利，並且我們說那就是我們的計畫。所以並不是——我們是在 11 月有一筆中期股利。接著在股東常會（AGM）之後的 4 月，我們發放期末股利，而這基本上就是我們再次希望採用的模式。因此如果一切維持正常，那麼你會在明年看到這個模式重複。也就是 11 月的中期股利，以及 4 月的期末股利。

Next question is from Mr. Amit Harchandani.

下一個問題來自 Amit Harchandani 先生。

Amit Harchandani from Citi. A question and a follow-up, if I may. So my question relates to 2021, please. And Peter and Roger, I would appreciate your thoughts in terms of helping us understand how do you think it all shakes up in terms of litho intensity and capacity going into 2021? Logic has been on an elevated level from 2019. Memory is picking up, but to what extent are your customers talking about 2021? And what's the level of visibility there, please? That would be my first question. And I have a clarification follow-up.

花旗的 Amit Harchandani。如果可以的話，我有一個問題以及一個追問。我的問題與 2021 年有關。Peter 和 Roger，我希望你們能分享看法，協助我們理解：展望 2021 年，在微影強度（litho intensity）與產能方面，你們認為整體會如何發展？邏輯晶片自 2019 年以來一直維持在較高水準。記憶體正在回升，但你們的客戶在多大程度上正在談論 2021 年？在這方面的能見度水準如何？這是我的第一個問題。我還有一個釐清性的追問。

Yes, I think that's a very good question. I think when we think about 2021, and we look at the situation today as compared to, let's say, 6 months ago at the beginning of the year, I mean it's -- it may not be a surprise that in the boardrooms of our customers, but also of our peers and ourselves, we -- the level of uncertainty as to the GDP environment and -- has, of course, gone up. So I mean there's a high level of uncertainty on what that could mean because we haven't really got a very good assessment, and as a quantifiable assessment on what 2021 means. And I hope you'll understand.

是的，我認為這是一個非常好的問題。我想當我們思考 2021 年，並把今天的情況與例如 6 個月前、也就是年初相比時，我的意思是——這可能不令人意外：在我們客戶的董事會會議室裡，以及我們同業與我們自己這邊，對於 GDP 環境的——不確定性程度當然已經上升。所以我的意思是，對於這可能意味著什麼，存在高度不確定性，因為我們其實還沒有得到非常好的評估，也沒有一個可量化的評估來說明 2021 年代表什麼。希望你能理解。

Now having said that, the -- as I also said in my prepared remarks that the innovation and the road map innovation of our customers are still continuing, which is true for Logic and is true for Memory. And as it relates to EUVs, particularly for DRAM and for the 7 and the 5-nanometer expansions. That will continue, there's no doubt in our minds. Now when we then look at 2021, what can we see at this moment in time? And as you know, I don't have a crystal ball. I don't know how 2021 is going to look from a macroeconomic point of view. But when you take our 2020 guidance, if you want to call it this way, we said Logic as compared to 2019, flat; Memory as compared to 2019, 30% up; installed base, 20% up to a level of EUR 3.4 billion. You take those numbers, you come to a number. Now -- and if you take that as a 2021 targeted number and look at where we are today in the discussions with our customers, on Logic and on DRAM and of course, with all the caveats that I just mentioned on COVID-19, we could still see double-digit sales number growth in 2021.

話雖如此，正如我在事先準備的發言中也提到的，我們客戶的創新以及其路線圖上的創新仍在持續進行，這對邏輯（Logic）與記憶體（Memory）皆是如此。而就 EUV 而言，特別是用於 DRAM 以及 7 奈米與 5 奈米的擴產。這將會持續，對此我們毫不懷疑。那麼當我們再看 2021 年，此時此刻我們能看到什麼？如各位所知，我沒有水晶球。我不知道從總體經濟的角度來看，2021 年會是什麼樣子。但如果你採用我們對 2020 年的指引（如果你想這麼稱呼的話），我們說：邏輯相較 2019 年持平；記憶體相較 2019 年成長 30%；裝機基礎（installed base）成長 20%，達到 34 億歐元的水準。把這些數字放在一起，你就會得到一個數字。現在——如果你把那個數字當作 2021 年的目標數字，並看看我們今天與客戶討論的進展，在邏輯與 DRAM 方面，當然也要加上我剛才提到的所有關於 COVID-19 的但書，我們仍可能在 2021 年看到銷售額的雙位數成長。

That's based on what we see today. Now the only -- the biggest difference with now and 6 months ago has to do with what I started off with, where the level of uncertainty is, of course, different today than it was 6 months ago. But this is where we are. And I think we'll probably get some more clarity over the next 2 quarters towards the end of the year, we'll probably get a better view on what this all means and we have the first quarters of the COVID-19 and GDP impact behind us.

這是基於我們今天所看到的情況。現在唯一——也是最大的差異，相較於 6 個月前，在於我一開始提到的：不確定性的程度，當然今天與 6 個月前不同。但這就是我們目前的位置。我想在接下來兩個季度、接近年底時，我們可能會得到更多清晰度，對這一切意味著什麼會有更好的看法，而且我們也將把 COVID-19 與 GDP 影響的前幾個季度拋在身後。

Now I hope, Amit, I just gave you a little bit of our guidance, and I also hope that you understand that we, at this moment in time, it's very difficult to be quantitative on 2021.

Amit，我希望我剛才已經給了你一些我們的指引；我也希望你能理解，就目前這個時間點而言，要對 2021 年做出量化預測非常困難。

Understood, Peter. That's helpful. And secondly, as a clarification, if I may, looking at your bookings number, three EUV systems for about EUR 461 million suggests it was a mix of 3400C and potentially 3600D tools and clearly, a higher ASP of around EUV 160 million for 3600D. And as we look towards 2021, are you in a position to at least give us some help in terms of how we should think of the mix of shipments of 3400C and D? And what that means for ASP and what that would mean for the 45 to 50 capacity that we are talking about?

了解，Peter。這很有幫助。第二點，若我可以再釐清一下：從你們的接單（bookings）數字來看，三套 EUV 系統約 4.61 億歐元，顯示可能是 3400C 與潛在的 3600D 機台的組合，而且很明顯 3600D 的平均售價（ASP）較高，約每台 EUV 1.6 億歐元。展望 2021 年，你們是否至少能在 3400C 與 D 的出貨組合上，給我們一些思考方向？以及這對 ASP 的意涵，還有對我們所談的 45 到 50 台產能意味著什麼？

Yes. It will be a mix of 3400Cs and 3400Ds. So you have seen this mix also in the ASP of the bookings, I mean, as you pointed out. But this is the trend going forward. I think the first half of 2021 will probably be more skewed towards the Cs, but then it will translate into the Ds. So the second half of the year, you will see Ds. And we're going to ship the first, let's say, plan to ship the first 3600D this year. That's -- there's only one. So that will be a year of ramp of the D version in 2021. And I said -- like I said in my prepared remarks, we are preparing the capacity, as we talked about, to be between 45 and 50 systems. And yes, you will see that transition using that capacity from Cs to Ds throughout the year, like I said, second half will involve the Ds and in the first half of the year, a mix.

是的。會是 3400C 與 3400D 的組合。所以你也已經在接單的 ASP 中看到這種組合了，正如你所指出的。但這就是未來的趨勢。我認為 2021 年上半年可能會更偏向 C，但之後會轉向 D。因此在下半年，你會看到 D。而我們今年計畫出貨第一台 3600D。那——只有一台。所以 2021 年將會是 D 版本的爬坡（ramp）之年。而且我說過——就像我在事先準備的發言中提到的，我們正在準備產能，如同我們討論的，介於 45 到 50 套系統。是的，你會看到在這個產能之下，全年會從 C 逐步轉向 D；如我所說，下半年會包含 D，而上半年則是混合。

Next question comes from Mr. C.J. Muse.

下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 先生。

Yes. Evercore ISI. I guess first question to follow up on the last one, with the 3600D, I guess, first, you had 3 tool orders. Can you help us understand the mix between Logic and Memory and also provide geography? And then as part of the deramping throughout 2021, how should we think about the gross margin implications?

是的。Evercore ISI。我想第一個問題延續上一題，關於 3600D：你們有 3 台機台的訂單。能否協助我們理解在邏輯與記憶體之間的組合，並且也提供地理區域分布？另外，作為 2021 年整年逐步降速（deramping）的一部分，我們應該如何看待對毛利率的影響？

Okay. I'll give the last part to Roger. Yes, the level of granularity with the 3 orders is, of course, could be significant. But the 3 orders were evenly spread -- no, evenly spread, it was -- there were at least one for a Memory customer, which is, I would now say that all our key Memory customers have now EUV ordered and shipped, which is good. And there was also some Logic orders there. But it was a mix. But more importantly, I think when you think about Memory and DRAM, we now have all our Memory customers in our order book.

好的。最後一部分我交給 Roger。是的，關於這 3 筆訂單的細節層級，當然可能相當敏感。但這 3 筆訂單是平均分散——不，平均分散是——其中至少有一筆是給某個記憶體客戶；我現在可以說，我們所有主要的記憶體客戶都已經下單並且已經出貨 EUV，這很好。另外也有一些邏輯的訂單。所以是混合。但更重要的是，當你思考記憶體與 DRAM 時，我們現在所有的記憶體客戶都已在我們的訂單簿（order book）中。

And C.J., as it relates to gross margin, on the D, in terms of ASP, we're looking at 15%, maybe a little bit more increase in ASP. As you know, this year, what we're looking at is over 40% on EUV gross margin on system sales. I think with the 50% up, we should definitely be able to get EUV gross margin at the level of the corporate gross margin. That's what we're looking at. So that's the kind of improvement that we're eyeing for that.

C.J.，至於毛利率，針對 D 機型，在 ASP 方面，我們預期 ASP 會提升 15%，也許還會再多一點。如你所知，今年我們在 EUV 系統銷售的毛利率目標是超過 40%。我認為隨著提升到 50% 以上，我們肯定能把 EUV 毛利率拉到公司整體毛利率的水準。這就是我們的目標。所以我們瞄準的是這樣的改善幅度。

That's very helpful. If I could just sneak in another gross margin question. Curious how we should be thinking about the new 2050 immersion and the 1470 dry in context with the D as you think about gross margins into 2021. Is 50 what we should be thinking about or because of the new product profiling coming in, is there more upside?

非常有幫助。如果我可以再插問一個毛利率問題：想了解在你們看 2021 年毛利率時，新的 2050 浸潤式（immersion）與 1470 乾式（dry）相對於 D 機型應該如何思考。我們應該以 50% 作為思考基準嗎？還是因為新產品組合（profiling）導入，還有更多上行空間？

I think the combination of the 1470 and the 2050 should give us approximately 1% uptick in the [income] gross margin. That's the way you should look at that.

我認為 1470 與 2050 的組合，應該能讓我們的（[income]）毛利率大約提升 1 個百分點。你應該用這種方式來看。

Our next question is from Mr. Krish Sankar.

我們的下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 先生。

It's Krish from Cowen. Two of them. First one, Peter, when you look into the second half with the Memory strength continuing, how do you parse it between China, DRAM and NAND, which is driving the incremental strength in Memory in the second half? And then I have a follow-up.

我是 Cowen 的 Krish。有兩個問題。第一個，Peter，當你看下半年、記憶體的強勁持續時，你如何在中國、DRAM 與 NAND 之間拆解：究竟是哪一塊在下半年推動了記憶體的增量強勢？然後我還有一個追問。

The Memory strength -- is your question, Krish, just to make sure that I understand it clearly. The memory strength in the second half, are you asking how much of that has to do with China?

記憶體的力道——這是你的問題嗎，Krish？我只是想確認我理解得很清楚。下半年記憶體的力道，你是在問其中有多少與中國有關嗎？

I'm just trying to figure out what is driving the growth? Is it China? Is it DRAM? How do you categorize between DRAM and NAND?

我只是想釐清是什麼在驅動成長？是中國嗎？是 DRAM 嗎？你如何在 DRAM 與 NAND 之間做分類？

Yes. I think it is basically all of that. It's our Chinese customers, which is a mix of Logic and NAND and DRAM customers. But it's also the traditional DRAM customers that are driving the demand in the second half. So it's a mix, and it's pretty well spread. But if you would say where's the emphasis, the emphasis would be on, I would say, the more traditional DRAM customers in the second half.

是的。我認為基本上就是以上所有因素。是我們的中國客戶，他們是邏輯（Logic）、NAND 與 DRAM 客戶的組合。但同時，也是傳統的 DRAM 客戶在推動下半年的需求。所以這是一個混合，而且分布相當平均。但如果你要說重點在哪裡，我會說，下半年的重點會更偏向較傳統的 DRAM 客戶。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. And then a follow-up for Roger. You mentioned about the EUV services gross margin hitting breakeven in the second half. So when you look into 2021, would there be a big inflection in the services gross margin because EUV is now profitable? Or do you think it's going to be more gradual?

了解。了解。這非常有幫助。接著我有一個給 Roger 的追問。你提到 EUV 服務的毛利率在下半年達到損益兩平。那麼當你看 2021 年時，因為 EUV 現在已經獲利，服務毛利率會不會出現很大的拐點（inflection）？還是你認為會比較漸進？

Sorry, would it be what?

抱歉，你是說會怎麼樣？

More gradual.

比較漸進。

More gradual. It will be gradual. And because both drivers that I mentioned before, both on the revenue side and the cost side, that will continue to ramp. So it's not like a flip of the switch that is going up. This is a gradual process that you will see continue throughout the year, the quarters to come.

比較漸進。會是漸進的。因為我先前提到的兩個驅動因素，無論是收入端或成本端，都會持續爬升。所以不會像開關一樣一瞬間跳上去。這是一個你會在接下來整年、未來幾個季度持續看到的漸進過程。

Next question from Mr. Sandeep Deshpande.

下一個問題來自 Sandeep Deshpande 先生。

JPMorgan. Roger, Peter, can you talk about EUV and Memory? I mean, clearly, you had said earlier in the year, you're shipping a couple of EUV to DRAM this year. How you see that as part of that 45 to 50 tools for next year and what you are hearing from your customers in terms of the development of EUV layers in the DRAM releases of next year? And I have one quick follow-up question.

摩根大通（JPMorgan）。Roger、Peter，你們能談談 EUV 與記憶體嗎？我的意思是，很明顯你們今年稍早說過，今年會出貨幾台 EUV 給 DRAM。你們如何看待這件事在明年 45 到 50 台設備中的占比？以及你們從客戶那邊聽到的、關於明年 DRAM 產品釋出中 EUV 層（layers）開發的情況？我還有一個很快的追問。

Yes. I think the EUV business for next year will be predominantly Logic. But yes, we will ship the first EUV systems to DRAM. It will be a limited number of -- there will be -- the layer application for the first DRAM node for the first EUV application in the DRAM node will be limited, just probably one layer. But it will grow in the nodes thereafter. And the DRAM road map in terms of node introduction has actually accelerated somewhat. So I would expect that the introduction of this one layer node will happen next year. But in '22 and '23, that will accelerate. And I think we have models up to potentially 5 layers in DRAM, but that's not in the node for which we'll use EUV next year. The majority of our shipments in 2021 on EUV will be for Logic.

是的。我認為明年的 EUV 業務將以邏輯（Logic）為主。但沒錯，我們會把第一批 EUV 系統出貨給 DRAM。數量會有限——而且——第一個在 DRAM 節點上導入 EUV 的節點，其層的應用會受限，可能只有一層。但在後續節點中會增加。而且 DRAM 的節點導入路線圖其實有些加速。所以我預期這個「一層」的節點導入會在明年發生。但在 2022 與 2023 年，會加速。我想我們的模型顯示 DRAM 最多可能到 5 層，但那不是我們明年要用 EUV 的那個節點。我們 2021 年 EUV 的大多數出貨將會用於邏輯（Logic）。

Understood. And then, Roger, how are you looking at this whole margin -- gross margin in EUV trending towards the deep UV level? And I mean are you on track to do this in '22 or '23? And I mean you've talked about this in your Analyst Day in the past. So when does that cross over with that?

了解。接著，Roger，你怎麼看 EUV 的毛利——EUV 的毛利率走勢朝向深紫外（DUV）水準靠攏？你們是否按計畫在 2022 或 2023 年做到？而且你們過去在分析師日（Analyst Day）也談過這件事。那大概什麼時候會交叉到那個點？

Yes, I think that's indeed the right time frame that you're referencing. So -- and by the way, when you -- '22, '23. And by the way, when you talk about deep UV gross margins, of course, we have to recognize that within deep UV, between different tools, there are some significant differences in gross margin. But indeed, with the D model and then obviously, at some stage, getting to its successor as well. That's the point in time where the lines between, let's say, emerging gross margin and EUV gross margin need to get close or cross. And I think the '22, '23 time frame is the right way to look at that.

是的，我認為你所指的確是正確的時間範圍。所以——順帶一提，當你——指的是 2022、2023 年。另外，當你談到深紫外（DUV）的毛利率時，當然我們必須認知到，在 DUV 內部，不同機型之間的毛利率存在一些顯著差異。但確實，隨著 D 機型（D model），然後很明顯在某個階段也會到它的後繼機型。那就是所謂「新興（emerging）毛利率」與 EUV 毛利率之間需要接近或交叉的時間點。我認為以 2022、2023 年的時間框架來看是合理的。

Next question is from Mr. Achal Sultania.

下一個問題來自 Achal Sultania 先生。

It's Crédit Suisse. Peter, maybe a question on the bookings again. Obviously, the bookings number is EUR 1.1 billion for this quarter, much lower than what we have seen over the last few quarters. I know you already have a large order backlog. I think you mentioned about EUR 10 billion in your interview this morning. So I guess, how much of this is a function of your customers basically saying, okay, let's hold on, we already have a lot of orders backlog with you, let's wait for those orders to be fulfilled? And how much is it a function of the fact that they themselves have limited visibility on what the shape of recovery will be on the macro side as we go into the back half of the year? Can you just help us understand like what are you hearing from your customers on that front?

這裡是瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）。Peter，我想再問一次關於接單（bookings）的问题。很明顯，本季接單金額是 11 億歐元，遠低於我們過去幾季看到的水準。我知道你們已經有很大的訂單積壓（order backlog）。我想你今天早上的訪談提到大約 100 億歐元。所以我想問，這其中有多少是因為客戶基本上在說：好，我們已經在你們這裡有很多積壓訂單了，先等等，等這些訂單先交付？又有多少是因為他們自己對於今年下半年宏觀面復甦的形狀缺乏能見度？你能否幫我們理解一下，你們從客戶那邊聽到的情況是什麼？

Yes. I think you just mentioned it. I mean I can repeat your question as an answer in the sense that you just touched on all of it. Yes, we have seen over the last 2 quarters, that's Q1 and Q4 of last year, about EUR 5.6 billion in total over those 2 quarters. That is basically adding up to an order backlog of EUR 10 billion with -- even for 2021, already 28 systems slated for 2021 shipment for EUV, which is more than half of our production capacity. And mind you, we're in the middle of 2020.

是的。我想你剛剛已經提到了。我的意思是，我可以把你的問題重述成答案，因為你其實已經涵蓋了全部重點。是的，我們在過去兩個季度，也就是今年 Q1 與去年 Q4，兩季合計大約看到 56 億歐元。這基本上累積成約 100 億歐元的訂單積壓——甚至針對 2021 年，已經排定 28 套 EUV 系統在 2021 年出貨，這已經超過我們產能的一半。而且請注意，我們現在還在 2020 年年中。

So I think that, of course, gives the customer the confidence that they have secured a significant part of their capacity ramp. If you add to that, that in Q2 of this year, of course, the full extent of the COVID crisis and the uncertainty associated hit the boardrooms of our customers that they also said, listen, yes, there's a higher level of uncertainty, I think that has definitely played in this particular situation. Having said that, I think in the discussion with our customers, we are very confident that we will keep booking EUV systems throughout the remainder of the year. So -- and I would be -- I think by the end of the year when we do our Q4 conference call in 6 months from now, we have a very good view on what 2021 is going to look like and I think we'll probably be fully booked. And what that fully booked means is fully booked on the demand of whatever is going to be. But we're preparing, like I said earlier, for our capacity, 45 to 50 systems, just in case our customers come back and said the demand for 2021 is going to be that high and I want you to make those systems.

所以我認為，這當然會讓客戶有信心，覺得他們已經確保了其產能爬升（capacity ramp）中相當大的一部分。再加上今年第二季，COVID 危機的全面影響以及相關的不確定性，當然也衝擊到我們客戶的董事會會議室，他們也會說：聽著，沒錯，不確定性提高了，我認為這確實在這個情況中發揮了作用。話雖如此，我認為在與客戶的討論中，我們非常有信心在今年剩餘時間會持續取得 EUV 系統的接單。所以——而且我會——我認為到今年年底、也就是 6 個月後我們進行 Q4 電話會議時，我們會對 2021 年的樣貌有非常清楚的掌握，而且我想我們很可能會滿載接單（fully booked）。而所謂滿載接單，是指在不論需求最終會是什麼的情況下，都把那個需求完全接滿。但我們正如我先前所說，仍在為 45 到 50 套系統的產能做準備，以防客戶回來說 2021 年的需求會高到那樣，並希望我們製造那些系統。

So the preparations for the capacity are ongoing, what the ultimate demand of customers will be is a function of what I just said. And that level of uncertainty has clearly gone up as compared to 6 months ago what it's finally going to be. But all in all, I can only repeat 2021, when you take our, let's say, guidance, you could say, for 2020, you add up those numbers, we see a real opportunity based on what we see today of, again, a double-digit growth in 2021.

因此，產能的準備工作仍在進行中，而客戶最終的需求將取決於我剛才所說的因素。與 6 個月前相比，這種不確定性的程度顯然上升了，至於最後會是什麼樣子。但總體而言，我只能重申 2021 年：當你採用我們的——姑且說——指引，你可以說，針對 2020 年，把那些數字加總起來，基於我們今天所看到的情況，我們再次看到一個真正的機會，也就是 2021 年實現兩位數成長。

Right. Okay. That's helpful. And maybe a follow-up. I guess when we look at the 35 EUV shipment number or target that you have for this year, how should we think about the mix between logic foundry and DRAM? Can you give us some color like any rough ranges, just to help us understand where we are in the adoption curve for DRAM market?

好的。好。這很有幫助。也許再追問一下。我想當我們看你們今年 35 台 EUV 出貨數量或目標時，我們應該如何看待邏輯晶圓代工與 DRAM 之間的組合？你能否提供一些補充說明，例如任何大致的區間，幫助我們理解 DRAM 市場在採用曲線上目前所處的位置？

The adoption curve for DRAM market, you really need to look at next year. I mean this year, these are the first few systems into the DRAM customer base. And it's really predominantly, 80% to 90% is just Logic.

DRAM 市場的採用曲線，你其實需要看明年。我的意思是，今年這些是首批進入 DRAM 客戶群的幾套系統。而且主要是——80% 到 90%——都只是邏輯（Logic）。

Our next question is from Mr. Pierre Ferragu.

我們的下一個問題來自 Pierre Ferragu 先生。

It's Pierre from New Street Research. Peter, I wanted to ask you about China. So it's fair to assume that China is going to make a lot of efforts to continue to improve its manufacturing capabilities, and we've seen a player there doing a significant capital raise not so long ago. So is that probably going to build an ability to assemble manufacturing lines despite the pressures...

我是 New Street Research 的 Pierre。Peter，我想問你關於中國的問題。所以可以合理假設，中國將會投入大量努力以持續提升其製造能力，而我們也看到那裡有一家業者不久前進行了相當可觀的募資。那麼，這是否可能建立起在壓力之下仍能組裝製造產線的能力……

So. As there could be new controls that could be implemented. There could be new laws and legislations we need to comply with so it might be a bit harder, but a complete stop, I don't see. I see more, let's say, regulations and more compliance that will be put on us, but I think on the equipment industry at large.

所以。由於可能會實施新的管制。可能會有我們需要遵循的新法律與法規，因此可能會更困難一些，但我不認為會完全停止。我看到的更像是——可以說——會有更多的規範與更多的合規要求加諸在我們身上，但我認為這也會適用於整個設備產業。

Our next question is from Mr. Stephane Houri.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephane Houri 先生。

Stephane Houri from ODDO BHF. Quick question on the logic foundry spending that seems to be continuing to be strong in the second half and maybe in 2021. So can you just share with us your view on why is logic foundry so strong and so long because the cycle seems to be a bit long this time?

我是 ODDO BHF 的 Stephane Houri。關於邏輯晶圓代工支出的一個快速問題：看起來在下半年、甚至可能在 2021 年仍會維持強勁。你能否分享一下你們的看法：為什麼邏輯晶圓代工會如此強勁且持續這麼久？因為這次的循環看起來有點長。

Yes. I think it has to do with the fact that the road maps are accelerating. I mean I can probably go back to 2018 when we -- all right, at these conference calls or during these conference calls that one thing has now changed, and that is that EUV has turned the corner. And I think EUV gives a very clear road map to our customers to start thinking about an economic way to continue with their road map so you can shrink at affordable cost. And that meant that we saw the road maps of our customers accelerate or at least the 2-year cadence in their design road maps are still there. And on top of that, with that new technology, with those new nodes, they could provide their customers, which are much more now in the space of 5G of platform companies, artificial intelligence, virtual and augmented reality, the electrification of the automotive industry.

是的。我認為這與技術路線圖正在加速有關。我的意思是，我可能可以回到 2018 年，當時我們——好吧，在這些電話會議上或在這些電話會議期間——有一件事已經改變了，那就是 EUV 已經跨過轉折點。我認為 EUV 為我們的客戶提供了一個非常清晰的路線圖，讓他們開始思考以經濟可行的方式延續其路線圖，讓你能以可負擔的成本持續微縮。這意味著我們看到客戶的路線圖加速，或至少他們設計路線圖的兩年節奏仍然存在。此外，藉由這項新技術、這些新節點，他們可以服務其客戶——而這些客戶如今更多是在 5G 平台公司、人工智慧、虛擬與擴增實境、以及汽車產業電動化等領域。

The customer base has expanded so much to make use of that technology. Now -- and to just -- in the discussions we have with our customers, we really see -- we have these discussions that certain of these nodes, these new nodes, I'd say, the 5 and 7-nanometer nodes might be as big as the 14 and the 20 and the 28-nanometer node. Because of the fact that the customer base has expanded so much and they're going to make use of this more economical transition of these nodes. It basically is going to provide a lot of value. And this is why this length of this cycle, if you want to call it, but it's -- you could say it's just the multiple cycles, closer together with a bigger customer base, that looks like it's one big cycle, but there are more cycles. It's innovation cycles driven by more customers and basically shorter. And that's what's happening today. And I think it's also thanks to EUV, I mean, we can now make this economical.

客戶基礎已大幅擴張，以運用這項技術。現在——而且就——我們與客戶的討論而言，我們確實看到——我們有這些討論：某些節點、這些新節點，我會說 5 奈米與 7 奈米節點，可能會像 14、20 與 28 奈米節點一樣大。因為客戶基礎擴張得非常多，而且他們將會利用這些節點更具經濟性的轉換。這基本上將提供很大的價值。這也是為什麼這個循環的長度——如果你想這麼稱呼——但它——你可以說其實是多個循環、更緊密地排列，加上更大的客戶基礎，看起來像是一個大循環，但其實有更多循環。這是由更多客戶驅動的創新循環，而且基本上更短。這就是今天正在發生的事。我認為這也要歸功於 EUV；也就是說，我們現在可以讓這件事在經濟上可行。

Okay. And with the ramp of EUV solid logic foundry, as you said, and the recovery in Memory, it is likely that you will reach the low end of the 2025 guidance by 2021. So the question is, do you intend to update us on that anytime soon?

好的。隨著你所說的 EUV 在邏輯晶圓代工的穩健爬坡，以及記憶體的復甦，你們很可能在 2021 年就達到 2025 年指引的低端。所以問題是：你們是否打算在近期任何時候就此更新我們？

In everything that I said, you have to refer to the lower end of the guidance, what is the lower end of the guidance in your there, 15, that's what -- that's what you're probably referring to. I think like I said, I'm not going to be quantitative. I just gave you this vision on what is happening today and everything -- and go back to our 2018 Capital Markets Day, that it was not about, like in 2016, will EUV work or will it not work? No, no, EUV will work. And the guidance was really driven by the market scenarios. Are we talking about a low market scenario or a high market scenario, this will drive the number.

就我所說的一切，你必須參照指引的低端；你那邊所說的指引低端是 15，那就是——那大概就是你所指的。我想如我所說，我不會給出量化數字。我只是向你描述今天正在發生的情況；另外——回到我們 2018 年的資本市場日，當時重點已不是像 2016 年那樣：EUV 會不會成功？不，不，EUV 會成功。而指引其實是由市場情境所驅動。我們談的是低市場情境還是高市場情境，這將決定數字。

Now I can only go back to what I said earlier and what it is going in the end, I'm not going to comment that on -- in a quantitative way. But what I said earlier, if you take our 2020 guidance, we see real opportunity of what we see today, I think it is realistic to soon we see double-digit growth also in our 2021. And I think what that number is going to be in the end, where it's going to hit exactly on the low end of the 2025 scenario number, I don't know, we'll see.

現在我只能回到我先前所說的，以及最終會如何發展；我不會以量化方式評論。但如我先前所說，如果你採用我們 2020 年的指引，基於我們今天所看到的情況，我們看到真正的機會；我認為很現實的是，我們很快也會在 2021 年看到兩位數成長。至於那個數字最後會是多少、會精準落在 2025 年情境低端數字的哪個位置，我不知道，我們再看。

Our next question is from Mr. Aleksander Peterc.

我們的下一個問題來自 Aleksander Peterc 先生。

This is Aleksander, SocGen. I just have two. So the first one would be on the new model, the model D of the EUV machine, will there be an upgradability path from C to D coming through in the next year, because obviously the B to C migration wasn't that obvious. But I'm wondering if this is slightly different with the C to D migration. And then just secondly, on working capital, can you help me understand this prepayments for EUV are instrumental in the projected improvement of your operating working capital metrics? And will that come through as and when you have a significant amount of new orders coming through?

我是 SocGen 的 Aleksander。我有兩個問題。第一個是關於 EUV 機台的新機型 D 型：明年是否會有從 C 升級到 D 的可升級路徑？因為顯然從 B 到 C 的遷移並不是那麼明確。但我想知道 C 到 D 的遷移是否會有些不同。第二個是關於營運資金：你能否幫我理解，EUV 的預付款是否是你們預期營運資金周轉指標改善的關鍵因素？而且這是否會在你們有大量新訂單進來時，隨之反映出來？

Yes. I think the upgradability of the C to D, that's what a lot of customers are actually asking. It will be expensive. So it's really -- I think it's technically possible, but I think it's going to be a matter of economic feasibility and the time it will take to do the upgrade because the C tools will be down to do the upgrade. And these are very expensive tools. So I think technically possible. We just need to see whether we can -- whether it can be economically done. So still not something that we are planning for today, but there is a technical capability. On the working capital?

是的。我認為 C 升級到 D 的可升級性，這其實是很多客戶在詢問的。這會很昂貴。所以這真的——我認為在技術上可行，但我認為這將取決於經濟可行性，以及完成升級所需的時間，因為 C 的機台需要停機來進行升級。而且這些都是非常昂貴的設備。所以我認為技術上可行。我們只需要看看——是否能在經濟上做到。所以目前還不是我們今天規劃要做的事情，但在技術上具備這個能力。關於營運資金呢？

On the working capital, indeed, the down payments is part of, as you call it, is instrumental in the working capital and free cash flow recovery that you talked about. And we'll come with new orders with orders coming in this year.

關於營運資金，確實，如你所說，預付款是你提到的營運資金與自由現金流回升中的一個重要部分。而且今年會有新訂單進來。

All right. We have time for 1 last question. If you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investors Relation department with your question. Now operator, may we have the last caller, please?

好的。我們還有時間再問最後一個問題。如果你在這通電話中未能接通但仍有問題，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資人關係部門並提出你的問題。現在，接線員，請給我們最後一位來電者，好嗎？

The final question is from Mr. Joe Quatrochi.

最後一個問題來自 Joe Quatrochi 先生。

Yes. It's Wells Fargo. On the Foundry, Logic side for 2020, you talked about it being relatively flat. So that would kind of imply revenue for the second half to be down in the low double-digit range year-over-year, despite what should be a back-end loaded year for EUV on the revenue rec side. So I guess number one, am I thinking about that right? And then number two, if I am, can you talk about the puts and takes of what's driving that?

是的。我是富國銀行（Wells Fargo）。關於 2020 年晶圓代工、邏輯（Foundry, Logic）端，你提到大致持平。所以這似乎意味著，儘管在營收認列方面 EUV 應該是下半年比重較高的一年，但下半年營收年增率會落在低雙位數的下滑區間。所以我想第一個問題是，我這樣理解對嗎？第二個問題是，如果我理解正確，你能談談推動這種情況的利多與利空因素（puts and takes）是什麼嗎？

Yes. I think we don't only sell EUV, we also sell deep UV. So I mean it's going to be a mix. And of course, like we said, the year-on-year will be flat for Logic. And yes, EUV is going to be higher in the second half than in the first half. But it doesn't change the overall picture in Logic. And we feel comfortable if we currently look at our order book and our shipment pattern that Logic, which is a combination of deep UV and EUV, will be about the same, maybe flat year-on-year.

是的。我想我們不只賣 EUV，我們也賣深紫外（deep UV）。所以會是一個組合。當然，如我們所說，邏輯端的年對年會持平。而且是的，EUV 在下半年會比上半年更高。但這不會改變邏輯端的整體圖像。而且如果我們目前看訂單簿與出貨節奏，我們有信心邏輯端（深紫外與 EUV 的組合）會大致相同，可能年對年持平。

And Joe, just to be clear, on Logic, so if you look at the material, we recorded 2.7 for Logic in the first half. So that means that 3.9 are necessary or expected if you like, to get to the 6.6 that you would get to if you stay flat on Logic. So that would lead to an increase, as Peter rightfully pointed it out, it would lead to an increase in the second half, but then it would be in the mix of EUV and deep UV.

Joe，為了說清楚，關於邏輯端，如果你看資料，我們在上半年邏輯端認列了 2.7。所以這表示要達到 6.6（也就是邏輯端維持持平時的水準），還需要或可預期有 3.9。因此如 Peter 正確指出的，這會導致下半年增加，但會體現在 EUV 與深紫外的組合之中。

Okay. I understand it's more about the year-over-year decline in the second half versus second half?

好的。我理解，我更在意的是下半年相較於下半年（年對年）的下滑，而不是相較於上半年？

I don't -- that could be second half over second half. But I mean it's actually -- I need to look at that data, but I don't think it's that relevant. I mean we're not -- it is just the timing when customers require those systems. I think quarter-on-quarter, there could be big differences, half-on-half could be big differences. I think really looking year-to-year, that's a longer period, that makes sense. It shouldn't make those periods too short to compare because they are big changes. The big tools, customer shipment patterns vary quarter-to-quarter quite significantly. So that's a bit dangerous to draw any conclusion from that. Operator? Skip?

我不——那可能是下半年對下半年。但我的意思是，這其實——我需要看一下那些數據，但我不認為那麼相關。我的意思是，我們並不是——這只是客戶何時需要那些系統的時間點問題。我認為季對季可能會有很大差異，半年對半年也可能會有很大差異。我認為真正看年對年，這是一個較長的期間，才比較有意義。不應該把比較期間拉得太短，因為變動很大。這些大型設備，客戶的出貨節奏在每一季之間會有相當顯著的差異。所以從那裡得出任何結論都有點危險。接線員？跳過？

Operator, can you close the call?

接線員，你可以結束這通電話嗎？

Yes. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML 2020 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

是的。各位女士、先生，ASML 2020 年第二季財務結果電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。你們現在可以掛斷電話。

Thank you.

謝謝。