艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2021 First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on April 21, 2021. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2021 年 4 月 21 日舉行的 ASML 2021 年第一季財務業績電話會議。 (操作員指示) 現在，我想將電話會議交給 Skip Miller 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen.

謝謝您，接線生。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink；以及我們的財務長 Roger Dassen。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2021 First Quarter Results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2021 年第一季業績。此次通話時間為 60 分鐘，問題將依照收到的順序進行解答。這次電話會議也透過 asml.com 進行了網路現場直播。管理層開場白的記錄和電話會議的重播將在本次電話會議結束後不久在我們的網站上提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentations found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。對於風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿中包含的安全港聲明和我們網站 asml.com 上的演示文稿以及 ASML 提交給美國證券交易委員會的 20-F 表年度報告和其他文件中的內容。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our Q1 2021 results conference call. And I hope all of you and your families are healthy and safe.

謝謝你，斯基普。歡迎大家。感謝您參加我們的 2021 年第一季業績電話會議。我希望你們所有人和你們的家人都健康、平安。

Before we begin the question-and-answer session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the first quarter as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. Roger will start with a review of our Q1 2021 financial performance, with added comments on our short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook. Roger?

在我們開始問答環節之前，羅傑和我想對第一季進行概述和評論，並對未來幾季發表看法。羅傑將首先回顧我們 2021 年第一季的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表補充評論。最後，我將對當前的商業環境和我們未來的業務前景發表一些補充評論，以完成介紹。羅傑？

Thank you, Peter. Welcome, everyone. I will first review the first quarter financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the second quarter of 2021.

謝謝你，彼得。歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第一季的財務業績，然後對 2021 年第二季提供指導。

Net sales came in above guidance at EUR 4.4 billion, primarily due to higher Installed Base business from upgrades. We shipped 9 EUV systems and recognized EUR 1.1 billion revenue from 7 systems this quarter. Due to the delay in one of our customers' road maps, we jointly decided to buy back 2 of their new systems and shipped these to another customer this year. This was accounted for as a revenue reversal in Q1 of 2021.

淨銷售額高於預期，達到 44 億歐元，主要因為升級帶來的安裝基礎業務成長。本季我們出貨了 9 套 EUV 系統，並從 7 套系統中獲得了 11 億歐元的收入。由於我們其中一位客戶的路線圖延遲，我們共同決定回購他們的兩套新系統，並在今年將其運送給另一位客戶。這被視為 2021 年第一季的收入逆轉。

For the systems shipped in Q4 2020 with a new configuration, we were able to complete site acceptance and recognized revenue this quarter. We also shipped 1 system this quarter without factory acceptance testing, so revenue will be recognized in the subsequent quarter after a customer site acceptance. Again, the net result is 7 EUV revenue systems in Q1.

對於 2020 年第四季出貨的採用新配置的系統，我們能夠在本季完成現場驗收並確認收入。本季我們也交付了 1 個未經工廠驗收測試的系統，因此收入將在客戶現場驗收後的下一季確認。同樣，最終結果是第一季有 7 個 EUV 收入系統。

Net system sales of EUR 3.1 billion was again more weighted towards Logic at 78%, with the remaining 22% from Memory. The strength in Logic drives both deep UV and EUV revenue. The Memory business is mainly driven by DRAM. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.2 billion above guidance due to increased upgrade business as customers pull forward software upgrades that can quickly increase productivity of systems in this high-semiconductor-demand environment.

31 億歐元的淨系統銷售額中，邏輯產品佔比重再次增加到 78%，其餘 22% 來自記憶體。邏輯上的優勢推動了深紫外線和 EUV 的收入。記憶體業務主要由 DRAM 驅動。本季安裝基礎管理銷售額比預期高出 12 億歐元，原因是客戶提前進行軟體升級，從而在這種高半導體需求的環境下快速提高系統生產率，導致升級業務增加。

Gross margin for the quarter was 53.9% and was above guidance due primarily to the additional software upgrade business. On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 623 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 168 million, which was slightly above our guidance. Net income in Q1 was EUR 1.3 billion, representing 30.5% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 3.21.

本季毛利率為 53.9%，高於預期，主要由於增加了軟體升級業務。在營運費用方面，研發費用為 6.23 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用為 1.68 億歐元，略高於我們的預期。第一季淨收入為 13 億歐元，佔淨銷售額的 30.5%，每股收益為 3.21 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended first quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 4.7 billion. Moving to the order book. Q1 net system bookings came in at EUR 4.7 billion, including EUR 2.3 billion for EUV systems and another strong quarter of deep UV demand. Order intake was largely driven by Logic with 76% of bookings, primarily due to EUV order intake, with Memory accounting for the remaining 24%.

轉向資產負債表。截至第一季末，我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資總額為 47 億歐元。移至訂單簿。第一季淨系統訂單金額為 47 億歐元，其中包括 EUV 系統的 23 億歐元以及深紫外線需求的另一個強勁季度。訂單量主要由邏輯驅動，佔訂單量的 76%，這主要歸功於 EUV 訂單量，而記憶體佔剩餘的 24%。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the second quarter of 2021. We expect Q2 total net sales to be between EUR 4 billion and EUR 4.1 billion. The directionally lower guidance is primarily due to shipments in the quarter, both EUV and deep UV, that will not receive factory acceptance testing due to customers' desire to bring systems into production as quickly as possible. Therefore, we will recognize revenue in subsequent quarters after completion of acceptance testing at customer sites.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2021 年第二季的預期。我們預計第二季總淨銷售額將在 40 億歐元至 41 億歐元之間。指導方針下調主要是因為本季度的 EUV 和深 UV 出貨量不會接受工廠驗收測試，因為客戶希望盡快將系統投入生產。因此，我們將在客戶現場完成驗收測試後在隨後的幾個季度確認收入。

In addition, the Installed Base business is expected to be lower in Q2 versus Q1 as customers pulled forward installation of productivity software upgrades to quickly increase wafer capacity. We expect our Q2 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 900 million.

此外，由於客戶提前安裝生產力軟體升級以快速提高晶圓產能，因此預計第二季的安裝基礎業務將低於第一季。我們預計第二季安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 9 億歐元。

Gross margin for Q2 is expected to be around 49%. The lower gross margin quarter-on-quarter is mainly due to delayed revenue from immersion systems that we plan to ship without factory acceptance testing as well as lower Installed Base Management sales versus Q1.

預計第二季毛利率約為49%。毛利率環比下降主要是因為我們計劃在未進行工廠驗收測試的情況下發貨的浸入式系統收入延遲，以及安裝基礎管理銷售額與第一季相比有所下降。

Expected R&D expenses for Q2 are EUR 650 million. And SG&A is expected to come in at EUR 175 million, reflecting a continued investment in the future growth of the company. In support of our aggressive product road maps and opportunity to fill in some of our high-value product developments, we plan to increase our R&D investments, primarily in EUV, via increased development capacity.

第二季預計研發費用為 6.5 億歐元。預計銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 為 1.75 億歐元，反映出公司對未來成長的持續投資。為了支持我們積極的產品路線圖和填補一些高價值產品開發的機會，我們計劃透過提高開發能力來增加我們的研發投資，主要是在 EUV 方面。

Furthermore, this increase will allow us to compensate for remote work impacts. We don't expect this increase to scale at the same level as our revised revenue increase, with R&D expenses for 2021 around 14% to 15% of sales. We expect SG&A to remain around 4% of sales for 2021. Our estimated 2021 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 14% and 15%.

此外，這一增長將使我們能夠彌補遠距工作的影響。我們預計這一增幅不會與我們修訂後的收入增幅保持同一水平，2021 年的研發費用約佔銷售額的 14% 至 15%。我們預計 2021 年銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 將維持在銷售額的 4% 左右。我們預計 2021 年年化有效稅率將在 14% 至 15% 之間。

As mentioned last quarter, ASML intends to declare a total dividend with respect to 2020 of EUR 2.75 per ordinary share. This is a 15% increase compared to the 2019 dividend. Recognizing the interim dividend of EUR 1.20 per ordinary share paid in November 2020, this leads to a final dividend proposal to the general meeting of EUR 1.55 per ordinary share. The 2021 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders will take place on April 29, 2021 in Veldhoven.

正如上個季度所提到的，ASML 打算宣布 2020 年每股普通股的總股息為 2.75 歐元。與 2019 年的股息相比，這一數字增加了 15%。考慮到 2020 年 11 月支付的每股普通股 1.20 歐元的中期股息，向股東大會提議派發每股普通股 1.55 歐元的最終股息。 2021 年年度股東大會將於 2021 年 4 月 29 日在費爾德霍芬舉行。

In Q1 2021, ASML purchased 3.5 million shares under the 2020 through 2022 program for a total amount over EUR 1.6 billion. Our expected free cash flow generation enables the opportunity for continuation of significant share buybacks in the coming quarters, and we expect to complete the execution of our current share buyback program early.

2021 年第一季度，ASML 根據 2020 年至 2022 年計畫購買了 350 萬股股票，總金額超過 16 億歐元。我們預期的自由現金流產生為未來幾季繼續進行大量股票回購提供了機會，我們預計將提前完成目前股票回購計畫的執行。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, we had a very strong quarter in both sales and profitability, driven by continued strength in both Logic and Memory, as well as significant demand for upgrades, as customers look to bring additional capacity online as quickly as possible. The additional upgrades consisted primarily of software-based productivity packages.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的，本季我們的銷售額和盈利能力都非常強勁，這得益於邏輯和內存的持續強勁增長，以及客戶希望盡快上線額外產能而產生的大量升級需求。額外的升級主要包括基於軟體的生產力包。

We are seeing a significant increase in demand from our customers across all market segments on all nodes, mature and advanced, compared to 3 months ago. And we expect another very strong year with demand across our entire product portfolio.

與三個月前相比，我們發現所有節點、所有細分市場（成熟和先進）的客戶需求都顯著增加。我們預計今年我們整個產品組合的需求將非常強勁。

The steeper-than-expected recovery in demand for semiconductors, amplified by the COVID, induced lower investments of the industry in 2020, thus creating significant upside to demand over the past quarter. This more cyclical demand sits on top of the secular growth from the accelerated buildup of the worldwide digital infrastructure and assuring demand not only for advanced and mature logic nodes, but also for memory.

受新冠疫情影響，半導體需求復甦勢頭強於預期，導致 2020 年該行業的投資減少，從而為過去一個季度的需求創造了顯著的上行空間。這種更具週期性的需求建立在全球數位基礎設施加速建設帶來的長期成長之上，並確保了不僅對先進和成熟的邏輯節點的需求，而且對記憶體的需求。

In Logic, customers continue to see strong demand across the broad application space for both advanced node as well as mature nodes. And last quarter, we expected revenue from Logic in 2021 to be up 10% year-on-year. However, we now expect Logic to be up around 30% this year.

在邏輯方面，客戶繼續看到廣泛應用領域對高階節點和成熟節點的強勁需求。上個季度，我們預計 2021 年 Logic 的營收將年增 10%。不過，我們現在預計 Logic 今年的股價將上漲 30% 左右。

In Memory, the applications that are driving the strong Logic demand are also fueling demand for Memory. As we mentioned in earlier calls, the Memory recovery started last year and continues to strengthen as customer plans to increase capacity is driving significant demands for our systems in the second half of the year. Compared to last quarter, where we expected revenue from Memory in 2021 to be up 20% year-on-year, we now expect Memory revenue to be up around 50% this year.

在記憶體方面，推動強勁邏輯需求的應用程式也刺激了對記憶體的需求。正如我們在之前的電話會議中提到的那樣，記憶體恢復始於去年，隨著客戶增加容量的計劃在下半年推動對我們系統的巨大需求，記憶體恢復持續加強。與上一季相比，我們預計 2021 年記憶體收入將年增 20%，現在我們預計今年記憶體收入將成長約 50%。

On our Installed Base business, service revenue will continue to scale with the growing installed base and with increasing contribution from EUV services as these systems ramp more and more wafers in volume production. We're also supporting our customers with upgrades to maximize performance of their installed base.

在我們的安裝基礎業務中，隨著安裝基礎的不斷增長以及 EUV 服務的貢獻不斷增加（因為這些系統在批量生產中增加了越來越多的晶圓），服務收入將繼續擴大。我們還為客戶提供升級支持，以最大限度地提高其安裝基礎的性能。

In order to meet the high demand in the current tight chip supply environment, customers are prioritizing software upgrades to quickly increase capacity, as reflected by our hardware upgrade of Memory in Q1. And some hardware upgrades require extended machine time to be installed. And in the current high-demand environment, customers will be less willing to take systems down, which has a dampening impact on the 2021 growth profile of hardware upgrades. We therefore still expect growth on our Installed Base business of around 10% this year, as mentioned last quarter.

為了滿足當前晶片供應緊張環境下的高需求，客戶正在優先考慮軟體升級以快速提高產能，這從我們第一季對記憶體的硬體升級就可以看出。而一些硬體升級需要延長機器的安裝時間。在當前高需求環境下，客戶不太願意關閉系統，這將對 2021 年硬體升級的成長前景產生抑製作用。因此，正如上個季度提到的那樣，我們仍然預計今年我們的安裝基礎業務將成長 10% 左右。

On EUV, we continue to see increasing customer confidence in this technology, which is translating to expanding layer counts in Logic and increasing deployment of EUV in Memory at multiple customers, evidenced by a number of customer announcements around increases in their CapEx plans, which will include spending on EUV for advanced nodes.

對於 EUV，我們繼續看到客戶對這項技術的信心不斷增強，這意味著邏輯層數的擴大和多個客戶在內存中 EUV 部署的增加，許多客戶宣布增加其資本支出計劃就證明了這一點，其中包括在先進節點的 EUV 支出。

To support this strong EUV demand, we are working to increase our output capability. At the same time, we are driving our product road map to produce higher productivity machines, which will increase the effective EUV capacity per system and the wafer output capacity of our customers. We plan to transition to the NXE:3600D system in the second half of the year, which will provide customers with a 15% to 20% higher productivity compared to the NXE:3400C systems shipping in the first half of the year.

為了滿足對 EUV 的強勁需求，我們正在努力提高產出能力。同時，我們正在推動我們的產品路線圖，以生產更高生產率的機器，這將提高每個系統的有效 EUV 容量和客戶的晶圓輸出容量。我們計劃在今年下半年過渡到 NXE:3600D 系統，與今年上半年出貨的 NXE:3400C 系統相比，該系統將為客戶提供高 15% 至 20% 的生產效率。

Limited by the available modules and parts this year, we're still planning for growth of around 30% in EUV revenue this year. With the expanding adoption of EUV at our customers, we see increased demand building in 2022 and beyond. We are improving our manufacturing cycle time and are planning our supply chain for a capacity of around 55 systems next year.

受限於今年可用的模組和零件，我們仍然計劃今年的EUV收入成長30％左右。隨著客戶越來越多地採用 EUV，我們預計 2022 年及以後的需求將會增加。我們正在縮短製造週期，並計劃明年將供應鏈產能提升至 55 個系統左右。

And as a reminder, all of our planned shipments in 2022 will be NXE:3600D systems, with the increased productivity capability. Our strength and outlook on the year relative to last quarter is primarily driven by the demand for deep UV systems.

提醒一下，我們計劃在 2022 年出貨的所有產品都將是 NXE:3600D 系統，其生產能力將會提高。與上一季相比，我們今年的實力和前景主要受到深紫外線系統需求的推動。

With increased demand on leading-edge nodes as well as mature nodes running longer and ramping stronger, demand for our immersion and dry systems is stronger than ever. We have put in place plans to increase our deep UV capacity to help meet our customers' increased demands.

隨著對前沿節點以及成熟節點運行時間更長、性能更強的需求不斷增加，對我們的浸入式和乾式系統的需求也比以往任何時候都強烈。我們已製定計劃提高深紫外線產能，以幫助滿足客戶日益增長的需求。

In our application business, as demand for scanners continues to increase, we expect a step-up in demand for our YieldStar metrology systems, particularly in Logic. The newly released YieldStar 385 is beginning to ramp across our customer base as well. And with the recovery in Memory, specifically in 3D NAND, we expect a substantial increase in e-beam inspection revenue this year.

在我們的應用業務中，隨著對掃描器的需求不斷增加，我們預期 YieldStar 計量系統的需求也會增加，尤其是在 Logic 領域。新發布的 YieldStar 385 也開始在我們的客戶群中流行起來。隨著記憶體（特別是 3D NAND）的復甦，我們預計今年電子束檢測收入將大幅增加。

For the industry at a high level, we see 3 trends driving considerable growth this year and in the years to come. The first trend, in the shorter term, that's more cyclical or, you could say, a catch-up-driven demand from decisions made in 2022 due to the global pandemic. These shortages were initially evident in the automotive market, but more recently, there are also indications of supply tightness impacting other market segments. We expect this to drive considerable demand for lithography systems this year and into next year.

從產業高層來看，我們看到今年及未來幾年有三大趨勢將推動產業實現顯著成長。從短期來看，第一個趨勢更具週期性，或者可以說是由於 2022 年全球疫情導致的決策所導致的追趕需求。這些短缺最初出現在汽車市場，但最近也有跡象顯示供應緊張影響了其他細分市場。我們預計這將推動今年和明年對光刻系統的大量需求。

The second is a secular growth trend, driven by the digital transformation taking place as we become a more connected world across both people and machines. And this transformation was further accelerated over the past year with the increased remote activity and reliance on technology to stay connected.

第二個是長期成長趨勢，隨著人與機器之間的聯繫日益緊密，數位轉型正在推動這一趨勢的發展。過去一年，隨著遠端活動的增加以及對技術保持聯繫的依賴，這種轉變進一步加速。

These secular trends are driven by expanding end-market applications, such as 5G, AI and high-performance computing. These and other mobile distributed applications drive demand for both advanced logic as well as more mature technology required for the services and applications that drive the growth of the digital infrastructure. And along with increased logic demand comes increased memory demand. This, in turn, drives demand across our entire product portfolio.

這些長期趨勢是由不斷擴大的終端市場應用（例如 5G、AI 和高效能運算）所推動的。這些和其他行動分散式應用程式推動了對先進邏輯以及推動數位基礎設施成長的服務和應用程式所需的更成熟技術的需求。隨著邏輯需求的增加，記憶體需求也隨之增加。這反過來又推動了我們整個產品組合的需求。

And the third trend, which we're starting to see now and which we will likely continue to see longer-term, is the desire for more technology sovereignty, which includes semiconductor and silicon-based technology, leading to a geographical decoupling, as different governments put initiatives in place to localize supply chains and become more self-sufficient. This, inevitably, will create some level of inefficiency in the semiconductor supply chain and creates additional equipment demand as more fabs are strategically built across the globe.

第三個趨勢，我們現在開始看到，並且很可能在長期內繼續看到，就是對更多技術主權的渴望，包括半導體和基於矽的技術，導致地理脫鉤，因為不同的政府出台了本地化供應鍊和實現更多自給自足的舉措。這不可避免地會造成半導體供應鏈一定程度的低效率，並且隨著全球範圍內策略性地建造更多的晶圓廠，會產生額外的設備需求。

If we summarize the growth of the different segments and the trends just discussed, we now expect sales growth towards 30% this year. To achieve this growth, we are ramping up our capacity to support customer demand, resulting in a stronger second half.

如果我們總結不同細分市場的成長情況和剛才討論的趨勢，我們預計今年的銷售額將成長 30%。為了實現這一成長，我們正在提高產能以滿足客戶需求，從而實現下半年的強勁成長。

With the higher revenue and increased mix of deep UV and upgrades, we now expect gross margins to be between 51% and 52% this year. With the industry as a whole, the long-term demand drivers only increase our confidence in our future growth outlook towards 2025, and we plan to provide an update on our 2025 scenarios at our Investor Day in September.

隨著收入的增加以及深紫外線和升級的組合增加，我們預計今年的毛利率將在 51％ 至 52％ 之間。就整個產業而言，長期需求驅動因素只會增強我們對 2025 年未來成長前景的信心，我們計劃在 9 月的投資者日上提供有關 2025 年情景的最新資訊。

And with that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

All right. Thank you, Peter and Roger. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. Beforehand, I would like to ask you kindly limit yourself to 1 question with 1 short follow-up, if necessary. This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible. Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

好的。謝謝你，彼得和羅傑。操作員將立即指導您在問答環節的協議。在此之前，我希望您只問一個問題，如有必要，請進行 1 個簡短的後續提問。這將使我們能夠聯繫到盡可能多的呼叫者。接線員，請問您最後的指示和第一個問題好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini of SIG.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes. I want to follow-up on the EUV revenue target for this year. I understand that you're keeping it unchanged at 30%. But in case you're able to improve the supply chain and availability of subcomponent, could there be upside to the shipment, even though you may not be able to recognize the revenue? And I have a follow-up.

是的。我想跟進今年的 EUV 收入目標。我理解您將其維持在 30% 不變。但是，如果您能夠改善供應鏈和子零件的可用性，那麼即使您可能無法確認收入，出貨量是否會帶來好處？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes, Mehdi. You just used 2 very important words, in case, which is the problem because we said it last quarter, these are very long-lead-time items. I mean, as a lens, as a manufacturing cycle time or, yes, I would say, lead them over 12 months. So if we have an audit, the lens is not going to be there.

是的，邁赫迪。您剛才使用了兩個非常重要的詞，以防萬一，這就是問題所在，因為我們上個季度就說過，這些都是交貨期很長的項目。我的意思是，作為一個鏡頭，作為一個製造週期時間，或者，是的，我想說，領先它們 12 個月。因此，如果我們進行審計，鏡頭就不會出現在那裡。

So I think when we look at capacity increase, we really, really need to look at next year. I think it's virtually impossible to get more out of 2021 as we have planned today. So really, it's going to be -- that's why we also mentioned that working with our supply chain and looking at the demand next year, we are now planning, and we haven't received full confirmation yet of the supply chain on it. But our focus is on the 55 systems next year.

因此我認為，當我們考慮產能增加時，我們確實需要考慮明年。我認為，根據我們今天的計劃，2021 年幾乎不可能有更多成果。所以實際上，這將是——這就是為什麼我們還提到與我們的供應鏈合作並展望明年的需求，我們現在正在計劃，但我們還沒有收到供應鏈的完全確認。但明年我們的重點是 55 個系統。

Bearing in mind also that, I think we said it before, customers are buying systems, but effectively, they're buying wafer capacity. And with next year, only 3600Ds, which already provides you with a 50% to 20% productivity increase. Well, if you then multiply, let's take the average of 15% to 20%, 17.5% or, let's say, 18% extra productivity increase for your system, then the 55 systems actually translate into 65 systems, with 3400C productivity. So it's -- this is the way that you need to look at it.

也要記住，我想我們之前說過，客戶購買的是系統，但實際上，他們購買的是晶圓產能。而到了明年，光是 3600D 就已經為您帶來 50% 到 20% 的生產力提升。好吧，如果您再乘以，讓我們取系統的 15% 到 20% 的平均值，即 17.5% 或 18% 的額外生產率提升，那麼 55 個系統實際上會轉化為 65 個系統，生產率達到 3400C。所以——這就是你需要看待它的方式。

Great. Thanks for the detail. And a quick follow-up. As I think about beyond 2021 and your operating margin, could there be a scenario where your key customers would share some of the development costs associated with High-NA, similar to what happened to EUV almost a decade ago, so that, that could also help drive overall operating margin to above 33%?

偉大的。謝謝你的詳細說明。並進行快速跟進。當我考慮 2021 年以後以及您的營業利潤率時，是否會出現這樣的情況：您的主要客戶會分擔與高 NA 相關的部分開發成本，類似於近十年前 EUV 發生的情況，這樣，這也有助於將整體營業利潤率推高至 33% 以上？

Well, I think -- I don't think it's likely because it's not necessary. I mean when we go back to almost a decade ago, our R&D expense at that time was EUR 600 million per year. And then when you looked at the size of the EUV program at that time and still you need to consider that the entire Low-NA EUV program will have cost more if we don't end it than the High-NA program.

嗯，我認為——我認為這不太可能，因為沒有必要。我的意思是，回顧近十年前，我們當時的研發費用為每年 6 億歐元。然後，當您查看當時 EUV 計劃的規模時，您仍然需要考慮，如果我們不結束整個低 NA EUV 計劃，那麼它的成本將比高 NA 計劃更高。

So if you have a look at it then, the relative effort to bring EUV to life was so large that it would have put a significant financial strain on the P&L of ASML which, of course, we could not afford, which is not the case today. And I think, if you think about operating margins, it is more a matter of maturity of EUV, which will, of course, lead to better-performing tools with higher productivity, with higher value. EUV service revenue, that will grow going forward. And I think those are the most important drivers for operating margin. Roger?

所以如果你看一下，你會發現，實現 EUV 所需的努力是如此之大，以至於它會對 ASML 的損益表造成巨大的財務壓力，當然，這是我們無法承受的，但今天情況並非如此。我認為，如果考慮營業利潤率，那麼這更多的是 EUV 成熟度的問題，這當然會帶來性能更好、生產力更高、價值更高的工具。 EUV 服務收入未來還會成長。我認為這些是營業利益率最重要的驅動因素。羅傑？

Yes, I agree. I mean the gross margin components, I think, Peter, you just referenced them why -- it's the EUV ASP. And as a result of that, the EUV systems gross margin and the EUV service gross margin, those are the major drivers on the gross margin side.

是的，我同意。我的意思是毛利率組成部分，彼得，我想你剛才提到了為什麼——它是 EUV ASP。因此，EUV 系統毛利率和 EUV 服務毛利率是毛利率的主要驅動因素。

And I think, also, in the introduction, we've been pretty clear on what the ambition is for OpEx, right? So 14% to 15% for R&D and 4% for SG&A. And our longer-term ambition, at least, on the R&D side is to try and model that back to around 13% over time.

而且我認為，在介紹中，我們已經非常清楚 OpEx 的目標是什麼，對嗎？因此，研發費用為 14% 至 15%，銷售、一般及行政費用為 4%。至少在研發方面，我們的長期目標是嘗試隨著時間的推移將這一比例恢復到 13% 左右。

I think that's what we stated, this R&D, yes?

我想這就是我們所說的研發，對嗎？

That's in R&D. And those are the major drivers, I would say, to get the operating margin further up.

這是在研發中。我想說，這些都是進一步提高營業利潤率的主要動力。

Yes.

是的。

And our next question comes from the line of Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

Can you hear me well?

你聽得清楚我說話嗎？

Very well.

很好。

Great. So thanks for the color on how you increase capacity for this year and next year. That's very clear. My question would be more over 2, 3 years. If I recall correctly, like about my visit in winter in Veldhoven, you guys have set out to be able to do 60 EUV tools per year then 20 High-NA EUV tools. And when I took a shot at looking at how much would be needed over the next 3, 4 years, I felt like this was actually a bit limited and that you might actually need more capacity.

偉大的。非常感謝您提供有關如何增加今年和明年產能的詳細資訊。這非常清楚。我的問題將持續超過 2 至 3 年。如果我沒記錯的話，例如我冬天去費爾德霍芬的時候，你們計劃每年生產 60 台 EUV 工具，然後生產 20 台高數值孔徑 EUV 工具。當我嘗試考慮未來 3、4 年需要多少容量時，我覺得這實際上有點有限，而且可能實際上需要更多的容量。

And so I would love to hear your take on that. In the longer term, do you think it will make sense to think about increasing your overall capacity? And if that's the case, what kind of lead times are we talking that for that kind of endeavor? And I have a quick follow-up.

所以我很想聽聽你對此的看法。從長遠來看，您認為考慮提高整體能力是否有意義？如果事實確實如此，那麼對於這種努力，我們需要什麼樣的準備時間呢？我有一個快速的後續行動。

Yes. It's a very good question, Pierre. And I think it's a long-term strategic question. Let me try to answer it this way. When I talked about the 3 trends that the company will have to face in terms of demand cycles, that's, of course, the shorter term, which, you could say, it's a catch-up of the lower level of investments we saw last year because of the pandemic, which is -- which are catching up this year and I think throughout next year or, I think, as a part of next year.

是的。這是一個非常好的問題，皮埃爾。我認為這是一個長期戰略問題。讓我嘗試這樣回答。當我談到公司在需求週期方面必須面對的三個趨勢時，這當然是短期的，你可以說，這是對去年由於疫情而出現的較低投資水平的追趕，也就是今年正在追趕，我認為明年全年，或者，我認為，作為明年的一部分。

Then as the secular growth turn, which we have underestimated, I think you can go back to the Capital Markets Day in 2016 and '18, I don't think we, at that moment in time, anticipated the strength of the deep UV market that we see today. And that's the third trend, which is basically the driver of technological sovereignty by different countries and different governments.

然後，隨著我們低估的長期成長轉變，我想你可以回到 2016 年和 2018 年的資本市場日，我認為我們當時並沒有預料到我們今天看到的深紫外線市場的實力。這是第三個趨勢，基本上是不同國家和不同政府的技術主權的驅動力。

Those are all -- at this moment in time, those will be the drivers. But it's also difficult to really get a very clear view on this. So what your question is, taking that into consideration, should you guys be looking at increasing your capacity beyond the 60, the magical 60, that we always mentioned? Good question. And I think this is actually the work that we're doing today, yes?

這些都是——就目前而言，這些都是驅動因素。但要真正清楚地認識到這一點也很困難。那麼你的問題是，考慮到這一點，你們是否應該考慮將容量提高到我們一直提到的 60 以上，即神奇的 60 以上？好問題。我認為這實際上就是我們今天正在做的工作，對嗎？

We're looking at this, and why do we need to do this? So now the lead time -- now if you have to build a complete new factory, let's say you need to build a new optics factory, then the lead time is 2 to 3 years, yes? Because you need to build the factory, you need to procure the machines or then -- by the way, when it comes to optics manufacturing, you have to build those machines yourself because they're not available. So that will be longer.

我們正在研究這個問題，為什麼我們需要這樣做？那麼現在的交貨時間——如果你必須建造一個全新的工廠，假設你需要建造一個新的光學工廠，那麼交貨時間是 2 到 3 年，對嗎？因為你需要建造工廠，你需要購買機器，或者——順便說一句，當涉及到光學製造時，你必須自己建造這些機器，因為它們是不可用的。所以那將會更長。

But a lot of ways to increase capacity and that's through cycle time reduction, that's through process optimization. And so it's this complexity of measures that we can take to see how we can drive the total capacity up, which, by the way, all have lead times that are beyond the 55 units that we're planning for next year, which doesn't mean that it couldn't be higher in '23 and '24. But that's the work that we need to do today, which, by the way, we are doing, yes?

但有許多方法可以提高產能，也就是透過縮短週期時間，透過優化流程。因此，我們可以採取這些複雜的措施來了解如何提高總產能，順便說一句，所有這些措施的交貨時間都超出了我們明年計劃的 55 個單位，但這並不意味著 23 年和 24 年的產量不會更高。但這就是我們今天需要做的工作，順便說一下，我們正在做，對嗎？

That makes sense. And a quick follow-up is very much related to that. You mentioned like the geopolitical situation. When I look at the overall value chain and how much it depends on what's happening in Veldhoven, on the single site where you assemble your tools, which is almost scary, it's a weak point for the global value chain and probably a place where your clients and governments are getting maybe a bit nervous about that. So do you have conversations with people around you about diversifying your size and creating supply that would not only be -- like, would be less dependent on the Netherlands?

這很有道理。快速跟進與此密切相關。您提到了地緣政治局勢。當我審視整個價值鏈，以及它在多大程度上取決於費爾德霍芬（你組裝工具的單一地點）的情況時，這幾乎令人恐懼，它是全球價值鏈的一個薄弱環節，可能是你的客戶和政府對此感到有點緊張的地方。那麼，您是否與周圍的人討論過如何實現規模多元化並創造供應，而不僅僅是——例如，減少對荷蘭的依賴？

Yes. I think the -- that's the -- the situation of today is not very different than the situation 5 years ago. You could also -- you can only argue that the realization of people is now different, but has never changed. It's what it is.

是的。我認為——那就是——今天的情況與五年前的情況沒有太大不同。您還可以——您只能爭辯說，人們的認識現在有所不同，但從未改變。事實就是如此。

But the same can be said for our own customers that are basically concentrated in one particular area, or some of our peers that -- with some of their production facilities only make a couple of hundred tools per year in 1 or 2 single sites. It is the concentration of the semiconductor industry in different geographical areas that actually now starts to make governments think it has never been an issue, yes? It's only becoming an issue when this -- an almost seamless ecosystem that has been built across many, many borders are now being -- that ecosystem is now being threatened, I would say, almost by blockages of that seamlessness, yes? And then you get an issue, yes?

但對於我們自己的客戶也是如此，他們基本上集中在一個特定的領域，或者我們的一些同行——他們的一些生產設施每年僅在 1 或 2 個單一地點生產幾百件工具。正是半導體產業集中在不同的地理區域，才使得政府現在開始認為這從來都不是問題，對嗎？只有當這個跨越許多邊界而建立的幾乎無縫的生態系統現在正受到威脅時，它才會成為一個問題，我想說，這個生態系統幾乎是因無縫性的阻塞而受到威脅，對嗎？然後你就遇到了問題，是嗎？

So -- but I think it's nothing different. It's always been this way, and especially over the last 5 years, I would say. There's high concentration of leading-edge technology across the value chain. But given the geopolitical situation, people are more aware of, it and they start now thinking of self -- of levels of self-sufficiency that, a couple of years ago, nobody thought of.

所以——但我認為沒有什麼不同。我想說，情況一直是如此，尤其是過去 5 年。整個價值鏈中尖端技術的集中度很高。但考慮到地緣政治形勢，人們對此有了更多的認識，他們現在開始考慮自我——實現自給自足的水平，而幾年前，沒有人想到過。

And our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬‧夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

Was wondering if you could help us on the updated 2021 guidance. And I think, last quarter, you had talked about there being potential upside from domestic China as we hadn't seen any change in the geopolitical situation or export controls. So just curious, can you help us understand, is that now included -- that upside included? And if so, how much is that?

想知道您是否可以幫助我們更新 2021 年指南。我認為，上個季度您曾談到中國國內市場存在潛在的上漲空間，因為我們沒有看到地緣政治局勢或出口管制有任何變化。所以只是好奇，您能幫助我們理解一下，現在是否包括了 - 包括了好處嗎？如果是的話，金額是多少？

Yes. I think it's fair to say that, that upside is now included in the numbers that we've given. So it's clear, and Peter went through that also in the presentation at the beginning of this call, that we've revised upwards, if you like, the outlook for the full year. And further down into the year, we've now said this is how we look at the full year, of course, still expecting that the regulatory situation remains a little bit the way it is today. And therefore, what previously was upside -- and the way we talked about is this upside has now really been included in that number.

是的。我認為可以公平地說，這種優勢現在已經包含在我們給出的數字中。因此很明顯，彼得在本次電話會議開始時的演示中也提到了這一點，如果你願意的話，我們已經上調了全年的前景。今年進入以來，我們現在已經說過，這就是我們對全年的看法，當然，我們仍然預計監管情況將與今天的情況大致相同。因此，之前所說的優勢——以及我們所說的優勢——現在實際上已經包含在這個數字中了。

Remember, last time, the expectation that we gave was that could be about EUR 600 million upside coming from China. And that number is now included in the, let's say, close to EUR 18 billion that we've now talked about.

請記住，上次我們給出的預期是來自中國的收入可能約為 6 億歐元。這個數字現在已經包含在我們現在討論的接近 180 億歐元中。

Yes. And if you then really want to think about the risk profile, you could say, well, when the regulatory situation changes and you could not ship to China, when you look at the market situation today, then -- which is quite different than 3 months ago, then we would ship those systems somewhere else.

是的。如果你真的想考慮風險狀況，你可能會說，好吧，當監管情況發生變化並且你無法運送到中國時，當你看看今天的市場情況時 - 這與 3 個月前完全不同，那麼我們會將這些系統運送到其他地方。

Great. And then just as a follow-up, I just want to make sure I understand. The 2 systems that you repurchased from a customer, those were on the EUV side, and then you plan to ship those this year. And I guess, is that -- if that's correct, is that embedded in the 30% EUV revenue growth?

偉大的。然後作為後續，我只是想確保我理解了。您從客戶重新購買的 2 個系統都是 EUV 方面的，您計劃今年發貨。我想，如果正確的話，這是否包含在 30% 的 EUV 收入成長中？

Yes, it is. Yes, it is. Yes.

是的。是的。是的。

Yes. So we need...

是的。所以我們需要...

So you have a reversal in this quarter, and you will see it come back in the subsequent quarters. For the full year, it's neutral price.

因此，本季度會出現逆轉，但在接下來的幾個季度中，你會看到它再次出現。就全年而言，這是中性價格。

Yes. It's a wash.

是的。洗一下就好了。

It's minus 2 and plus 2, so it's a wash.

是減 2 和加 2，所以是平手。

And our next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc of Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的亞歷山大‧彼得 (Aleksander Peterc)。

So you gave us a pretty clear outlook on EUV for '22. I just wondered about the longevity of this stronger cycle. Did you see the management in dry? Because that's where all of the upgrade today is coming through for '21. So I'm just wondering, is all of that then carrying into '22 as well? And then, just very quickly, if you could also provide a quick comment on ASPs? They were again very strong in this quarter, so if you could give the puts and takes there.

所以你給了我們關於 22 年 EUV 的相當清晰的展望。我只是想知道這個更強的周期能持續多久。你看到管理階層在幹嘛了嗎？因為這就是今天 21 世紀所有升級的體現。所以我只是想知道，這一切是否也會延續到 22 年？然後，您是否可以對 ASP 做一個簡短的評論？他們在本季再次表現強勁，所以如果你能給出他們的得失。

I'll do the ASP -- well, Roger will do the ASPs. And your question on the...

我會做 ASP——好吧，Roger 會做 ASP。您的問題是關於...

Sustainability.

可持續性。

On the sustainability, yes, and especially deep UV and apps. I think, as I said it on the -- as an answer on an earlier question, when we look at how we see the deep UV market and the aftermarket today as compared to 3 years ago, about 2018, I think we have a different view. And that's driven by the fact that, of course, our entire deep UV portfolio, which is immersion and dry, we have -- we cannot fulfill the demand of our customers all the time.

是的，就可持續性而言，尤其是深紫外線和應用程式。我認為，正如我在回答之前的問題時所說的那樣，當我們將今天的深紫外線市場和售後市場與 3 年前（大約 2018 年）進行比較時，我認為我們有不同的看法。當然，這是因為，我們的整個深紫外線產品組合（包括浸入式和乾式）都無法滿足客戶的需求。

And that has to do with the fact that our analysis shows that with the combination of, let's say, advanced sensing technology, 5G, the ability to process all the data through high-performance compute. And that, in a distributed fashion, basically leading-edge compute also goes to the edge. I call that distributed systems. And the distributed system is, for instance, a car, but it's also one of our machines in the field.

這與我們的分析有關，即透過結合先進的感測技術 5G，我們能夠透過高效能運算處理所有數據。而且，以分散式的方式，基本上前沿運算也會走向邊緣。我稱之為分散式系統。分散式系統例如是一輛汽車，但它也是我們現場的機器之一。

And then, increasingly, requires collection of data, transport of data, processing of data, not only to the most advanced high-performance compute but as part of the distributed system. And that system inevitably includes mature technology, which could be image sensors, power ICs, MEMS, analog solutions. It's the whole thing. And that means, if we would have a high line system available today, it will be sold yesterday.

然後，越來越需要收集數據、傳輸數據、處理數據，不僅需要最先進的高效能運算，而且需要作為分散式系統的一部分。該系統不可避免地包含成熟的技術，包括影像感測器、電源IC、MEMS、類比解決方案。這就是全部內容。這意味著，如果我們今天有一個高線系統，它昨天就會被賣掉。

So it's everywhere. And that has to do with the proliferation of chip technology and the distributed computing and the distributed systems that we are seeing. That is something that will not go away in our minds. This is why I said also in my prepared remarks that we are also planning and looking into what is the level of our deep UV capacity increase that we need, both in mature and in emerging. And it's going to be double-digit increase as from where we are today.

所以它無所不在。這與我們所看到的晶片技術、分散式運算和分散式系統的普及有關。這是我們心中揮之不去的事。這就是為什麼我在準備好的發言中也說過，我們也在計劃和研究我們需要的深紫外線容量增加到什麼水平，無論是在成熟階段還是在新興階段。從目前的情況來看，這一數字將實現兩位數的成長。

Now how much can we stretch that? Or how much is needed? That's exactly what we're doing with EUV. We need to line up with the supply chain. And we need to go deeper into what it takes in terms of capacity lead time. Do they need to build square meters? Do they need to hire people? Is it going to be possible through cycle time reductions or through process optimization?

現在我們可以將其延伸到什麼程度？或需要多少？這正是我們利用 EUV 所做的事情。我們需要與供應鏈保持一致。我們需要更深入地了解產能交付週期方面需要做些什麼。需要建多少平方公尺？他們需要雇人嗎？是否可以透過縮短週期時間或優化流程來實現？

This is the work that we're doing today. Because remember, 5 months ago, we were looking at a completely different world, yes? So this is a ramp-up, but we do believe that this has a long runway.

這就是我們今天所做的工作。因為記住，五個月前，我們看到的是一個完全不同的世界，對嗎？所以這是一個加速過程，但我們確實相信這還有很長的路要走。

Yes. On the ASP for EUV, it's well-noted, you're absolutely right. So this quarter, in Q1, we're looking at an ASP for EUV of about EUR 160 million. Part of that is configuration. We've talked about that in the past. If you look at the last 3 quarters, we've consistently been looking at an ASP of around EUR 145 million. And this time, it's a little bit up for another reason that I'll come to in a moment.

是的。關於 EUV 的 ASP，這是眾所周知的，您完全正確。因此，本季度，即第一季度，我們預計 EUV 的平均銷售價格約為 1.6 億歐元。其中一部分是配置。我們過去曾討論過這個問題。如果你看一下過去 3 個季度，我們一直在關注約 1.45 億歐元的平均銷售價格。而這一次，它有點上漲是因為另一個原因，我稍後會談到。

So in fact, what you see is that -- in fact, in the last year, we've been positively surprised by the options on the 2, the options that were ordered on the 2. And as a result of that, the configuration was richer than anticipated. And as a result of that, you fairly consistently see now that the ASP ranges above the EUR 130 million that we talked about in the past.

所以事實上，你看到的是——事實上，在去年，我們對 2 上的選項感到驚喜，2 上訂購的選項。因此，配置比預期的更加豐富。因此，您現在可以相當一致地看到 ASP 範圍高於我們過去談到的 1.3 億歐元。

And it's fairly consistent. We've seen EUR 145 million or up. The reason that is extra of this, this year, there's a few accounting things. We've talked about accounting for VPAs in the past. So there's a few accounting reasons why it's a wide higher, it's a wide EUR 160 million rather than EUR 145 million.

並且相當一致。我們已經看到了1.45億歐元甚至更多。原因是今年有一些會計事務。我們過去曾討論過 VPA 的會計問題。因此，有幾個會計原因導致該數字大幅偏高，該數字是 1.6 億歐元，而不是 1.45 億歐元。

But we're out of the -- just looking at the configuration that we've seen on the tools in the past couple of quarters, the EUR 145 million anchor points, EUR 40 million ASP for EUV is probably the right way to go. And I'd say that, recognizing that this is about the last quarter that we're really looking at a large number of fees in the revenue.

但是我們已經走出了 - 僅看一下我們在過去幾個季度中看到的工具配置，1.45 億歐元的錨點，4000 萬歐元的 EUV 平均銷售價格可能是正確的選擇。我想說的是，我們認識到這是最後一個季度，我們確實在關注收入中的大量費用。

And our next question comes from the line of David Mulholland of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的大衛‧穆赫蘭 (David Mulholland)。

Just coming back on the EUV capacity increase and shifting to 55 tool capacity for next year. Obviously, there were some changes made last year that ended up limiting what potentially should have been higher shipments this year, and some of that probably kicks in next year. But in your discussions with customers, Peter, just -- obviously, there's a very, very strong cyclical tailwind to the industry today that's driving appetite for capacity increase.

剛剛回顧 EUV 產能增加，並將明年轉移到 55 種工具產能。顯然，去年做出的一些改變最終限制了今年本應更高的出貨量，其中一些變化可能會在明年生效。但是彼得，在您與客戶的討論中，顯然，當今行業面臨著非常強勁的周期性順風，推動著對產能增加的需求。

But EUV is on a very, very long time horizon for customers 18 months rather than 6 months planning. How do you feel like their assumptions have changed that's driving that upside? Is it primarily because of their confidence and penetration of EUV in higher layers? Or is there an element of actually just building bigger nodes now that's driving the need for more capacity at this point?

但對客戶來說，EUV 的時間跨度非常非常長，需要 18 個月，而不是 6 個月的計畫。您覺得他們的假設發生了哪些變化，從而推動了這種上漲？這主要是因為他們對 EUV 在更高層次的信心和滲透力嗎？或者現在是否存在僅僅建立更大節點的因素，從而推動了對更多容量的需求？

I think, David, it's both. I think we're seeing -- I only -- what I refer to as a comment that was made by the CEO of one of our large customers. That actually manage and know we're going to double the number of EUV layers on our next node. And I think that's a trend that we are seeing, simply because the advantages of EUV are not only, you could say, the pure economic cost per layer because you can eliminate multiple patterning, but it's also the electrical characteristics and the simplicity of the process. Lower risk, that's one of them, yes? So there's many other side effects that actually lead people to go for EUV.

大衛，我認為兩者皆有。我認為我們看到的——我只是——是我提到的由我們的一位大客戶的執行長發表的評論。這實際上管理並知道我們將在下一個節點上將 EUV 層的數量增加一倍。我認為這是我們看到的一個趨勢，因為 EUV 的優勢不僅在於每層的純粹經濟成本，因為你可以消除多重圖案化，而且它還具有電氣特性和工藝的簡單性。降低風險，這是其中之一，對嗎？因此，實際上還有許多其他副作用導致人們選擇 EUV。

So yes, it's higher layer counts, that's what we're seeing, which is true for Memory and for Logic. But also, when we talk to customers, we all talk about bigger nodes. It has to do with this secular trend, trend #2 that I talked about. And that number -- and trend #3, the technological sovereignty, will just be a layer on top, which will not go away, which will take time. It takes 2 to 3 years to build a semiconductor factory, and we put it into action.

是的，層數更高，這就是我們所看到的，對於記憶體和邏輯都是如此。但是，當我們與客戶交談時，我們都會談論更大的節點。這與我談到的長期趨勢（趨勢 2）有關。而這個數字──以及趨勢3，也就是技術主權，將只是最頂層的一個層面，它不會消失，但需要時間。建造一個半導體工廠需要2到3年的時間，我們付諸行動。

So -- but I think this is -- so it is bigger nodes. It is strategic investments. It's High-NA accounts. And this is what I -- as an answer to a previous question, we all need to take this into consideration. Some of it we already saw coming, but what does it mean for our capacity needs beyond 2022, which, by the way, some of that capacity, if that would be needed, would be the result of, like I said, process optimization, cycle time improvement, different work schedules and potentially square meters, that could be. So -- but it's all of the above.

所以 — — 但我認為這是 — — 所以它是更大的節點。這是戰略投資。這是高 NA 帳戶。這就是我對前一個問題的回答，我們都需要考慮到這一點。我們已經預見了其中的一些，但這對我們 2022 年以後的產能需求意味著什麼？順便說一句，如果需要的話，其中一些產能將像我說的那樣，是流程優化、週期時間改進、不同的工作時間表和潛在的平方米的結果。所以——但以上都是。

And just one quick follow-up. Obviously, from a financial perspective, at some point in the near future, you need to start building those tools through the supply chain, given the lead times. Are you requiring customers to place deposits and make the financial commitments that you've been starting to make before any of those tools get built? Or is there an element still this year where you're going ahead and starting production before you've had firm deposit-associated orders from the customer?

還有一個快速的後續問題。顯然，從財務角度來看，考慮到交貨時間，在不久的將來的某個時候，您需要開始透過供應鏈建立這些工具。在建立任何這些工具之前，您是否要求客戶存入押金並做出財務承諾？或者今年是否仍存在這樣的情況：在收到客戶的確定定金相關訂單之前，您就會開始生產？

Yes, David, the policy hasn't changed there. So that means that when the customers put in a PO, a down payment is required. And I think we mentioned in the past that the amount of the PO is a little bit dependent on the moment where the order is being placed. So if the order is being placed nicely in line with the lead time, then the down payment is lower than one that's placed a little bit later than that.

是的，大衛，那裡的政策沒有改變。這意味著當客戶下訂單時，需要支付預付款。我想我們過去提到過，採購訂單的數量有點取決於下訂單的時刻。因此，如果訂單與交貨時間完全一致，那麼預付款就會比稍晚下達的訂單要低。

But you also know that the PO in and by itself is a bit of a nonevent for us because we work so closely with the customer that we sort of understand what they're doing, what they want and when they need it. So the PO is a bit of a nonevent for us. But yes, the short answer is absolutely, there will be down payments to place at the moment of the PO.

但您也知道，採購訂單本身對我們來說並不是什麼大事，因為我們與客戶密切合作，所以我們了解他們在做什麼、他們想要什麼以及何時需要它。因此，採購訂單對我們來說並不是什麼大事。但是的，簡短的回答是絕對的，在採購訂單時需要支付預付款。

And our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse at Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, first question, Peter, can you speak to the sustainability of Memory? I think the headline above 50% might be a bit concerning. However, if I think about EUV in there as well as the strong pickup in EUV, in voltage and contrast imaging, it certainly looks like Memory, ex those 2 things, is tracking more like up 20%, 25%. So I would love to hear your thoughts on the moving parts there, and how to think about sustainability into '22?

我想，第一個問題，彼得，你能談談記憶的可持續性嗎？我認為 50% 以上的標題可能有點令人擔憂。然而，如果我考慮其中的 EUV 以及 EUV 在電壓和對比度成像方面的強勁增長，那麼看起來內存（除這兩項外）的跟踪漲幅更像是 20%、25%。所以我很想聽聽您對那裡的活動部分的看法，以及如何考慮 22 年的可持續性？

Yes. I think, for this year, it's not a surprise. I mean, you just need to go back to our conference calls in the last 2 quarters, where we actually saw a recovery of especially DRAM starting. And I think I gave some color 3 months ago where I basically said, yes, we had a decent shipment core in Q4 of last year, which basically goes into production in Q1.

是的。我認為，對於今年來說，這並不令人意外。我的意思是，你只需要回顧我們過去兩個季度的電話會議，我們實際上看到了特別是 DRAM 的復甦開始。我認為我在三個月前就給了一些說明，我基本上說過，是的，我們去年第四季的核心出貨量不錯，基本上在第一季投入生產。

But if you look at a bit growth of 20% this year, then our calculations show that we very quickly -- at the next output capacity of our DRAM customers in this year, where -- and we would reach that pretty quick, so we would need more capacity addition. That's exactly what we have seen. So I think it's just the beginning. These things -- so yes, I think, yes, it will move into next year.

但是如果你看今年 20% 的成長，那麼我們的計算表明，我們很快 - 今年我們的 DRAM 客戶的下一個輸出能力 - 我們很快就會達到這一水平，因此我們需要增加更多的產能。這正是我們所看到的。所以我認為這只是個開始。這些事情——所以是的，我認為，是的，它將進入明年。

Now you've been around also long. So that -- in the Memory business, yes, there is more tendency to have, from time to time, some overcapacity and some undercapacity. But how long that will last, I don't know. But still, this is some -- [there was a BM above] telling me, say, this secular trend, when there's such a high demand in logic, all this stuff doesn't only work with only logic. So it also needs memory, yes?

現在你已經存在很久了。因此，在記憶體業務中，確實存在時不時出現產能過剩和產能不足的趨勢。但我不知道這種情況會持續多久。但是，這仍然是一些 - [上面有一個 BM] 告訴我，比如說，這種長期趨勢，當對邏輯的需求如此之高時，所有這些東西不僅僅只適用於邏輯。所以它也需要記憶，是嗎？

So it's going to be quite interesting to see how quickly the Memory capacity will be added throughout this year, early next year, and what the underlying bit growth percentages will be. Now I think, having said that, you notice also Memory is more cyclical than Logic, but nothing that indicated to me, at this moment in time, that we are looking at building an overcapacity. There's nothing I can see at this moment in time. We're just starting.

因此，觀察今年和明年年初內存容量的增加速度以及潛在的位元增長百分比將會非常有趣。現在我想，話雖如此，你也會注意到記憶體比邏輯更具週期性，但目前沒有任何跡象表明我們正在考慮產能過剩。此刻我什麼也看不見。我們才剛開始。

Very helpful. And then just a follow-on question on the DUV side of things. I think you guys have talked about growing your non-EUV tool business by about 40%. So that's roughly $7.7 billion this year. Is there a way to frame how much capacity you're planning to add on the non-EUV side relative to that $7.7 billion for us to kind of gauge what you're capable above into '22 and beyond?

非常有幫助。然後是關於 DUV 方面的一個後續問題。我想你們已經討論過將非 EUV 工具業務成長約 40%。所以今年的金額大約是 77 億美元。有沒有辦法確定您計劃在非 EUV 方面增加多少產能（相對於這 77 億美元），以便我們衡量您在 2022 年及以後的能力？

Yes. As I think, we -- if we should calculate it the way that we would calculate about, for example, we would just be over $8 billion, yes?

是的。我認為，如果我們按照我們計算的方式計算，那麼數字將超過 80 億美元，對嗎？

$8.2 billion.

82億美元。

About $8.2 billion. And that's really stretching it, in terms of our production capacity this year. If it would have more capacity, we could probably do more. Okay. Likely, we would be able to do more. So your question really is answered in a sense that I already said in my prepared remarks, we're looking at increasing our deep UV capacity, both dry, mature and immersion. And that's not going to be 5%.

約82億美元。就我們今年的生產能力而言，這確實是一個挑戰。如果它有更多容量，我們可能會做更多的事情。好的。很可能，我們可以做得更多。因此，從某種意義上來說，您的問題確實得到了回答，我在準備好的發言中已經說過，我們正在考慮提高我們的深紫外線能力，包括乾燥、成熟和浸泡。這不會是 5%。

I mean it's going to be double digit. But that will take some further analysis of what needs to be done. Is it through optimization, yes? Things like process optimization and added workforce or cycle time reduction. Or has it to do with square meter capacity for like factories? That is something that we'll -- as under consideration today, and we're looking into that together with our supply chain. So not so much for us, that is really in the supply chain, yes?

我的意思是它將達到兩位數。但這需要進一步分析需要做什麼。是透過優化嗎？諸如流程優化、增加勞動力或縮短週期時間等。或與類似工廠的平方公尺容量有關？這是我們今天要考慮的事情，我們正在與我們的供應鏈一起研究這個問題。所以對我們來說不是那麼多，這實際上是在供應鏈中，對嗎？

So the reason why I say this is because we believe that we need extra capacity, yes? And it has to do with the underlying trends, the trends that I talked about earlier. So yes, the 40% makes me think to just over $8 billion, yes? Where you have $7.7 billion, so you're a bit more conservative. But this is -- directionally, it is correct, but this is the answer.

所以我這樣說是因為我們相信我們需要額外的產能，對嗎？這與潛在的趨勢有關，也就是我之前談到的趨勢。所以是的，40% 讓我想到剛好超過 80 億美元，對嗎？你有 77 億美元，所以你比較保守。但這是——從方向上看，這是正確的，但這就是答案。

And our next question comes from the line of Andrew Gardiner at Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·加德納。

Another one, Peter, on the sort of capacity planning issues that you guys have just been talking about. I'm wondering, given the changes that we've seen from a number of your lead customers or at least the public announcements from your lead customers over the last 3 or 4 months and the fact that you are now having to rethink the need for additional capacity expansion, whether your site or within the supply chain, are they now giving -- and I presume yes, they're wanting it sooner rather than later.

另一個問題，彼得，是關於你們剛才談論的容量規劃問題。我想知道，鑑於我們從您的許多主要客戶那裡看到的變化，或者至少是過去 3 或 4 個月內您的主要客戶所發布的公開聲明，以及您現在必須重新考慮額外擴容的必要性（無論是您的站點還是在供應鏈中），他們現在是否給予 - 我認為是的，他們希望盡快實現這一目標。

It always seems to be the way. And yet you've got fairly extensive lead times, particularly so for EUV, perhaps slightly less so for DUV in terms of building out this capacity. Are you getting better visibility today in terms of what those customers are going to need looking out over the next 3, 4, 5 years in order to give you that confidence in making such a decision?

似乎總是如此。然而，就建造這種產能而言，你的交付週期相當長，特別是對於 EUV 而言，而對於 DUV 而言，交付週期可能略短一些。就這些客戶在未來 3、4、5 年內需要關注什麼而言，您是否現在有了更好的了解，以便讓您有信心做出這樣的決定？

Yes. It's a good question. I mean, and also, you've been around also. I think all these people have been around for a long time. So that -- yes, when we underinvest, there's also going to be a knee-jerk reaction, like it always happens. So this is more the shorter-term correction of a misplanning, yes? That's happening today.

是的。這是個好問題。我的意思是，而且，你也一直在這裡。我認為這些人已經存在很久了。所以——是的，當我們投資不足時，也會出現下意識的反應，就像往常一樣。所以這更像是對錯誤規劃的短期修正，對嗎？這就是今天正在發生的事情。

That's what I call -- it's the trend #1, yes? But clearly, customers understanding that our capacity lead times and our manufacturing lead times are wrong. So they do share with us a longer-term vision. Now I'm not 5 years out, that's a bit too much to ask. But certainly 2, 3 years out, yes?

這就是我所說的——這是第一個趨勢，對嗎？但顯然，客戶對我們的產能交付週期和製造交付週期的理解是錯誤的。所以他們確實與我們分享了更長遠的願景。現在我還沒離開 5 年，這個要求有點太多了。但肯定還要 2、3 年的時間，對吧？

So I think, I would say, for 2022, 2023, we definitely have the discussions about what they need in terms of expansion plans, in terms of that they have plans, in terms of what they see. When we talk about Logic, the anticipated capacity ramp in terms of the tape-outs that they have on the shelves so that they see it coming on and 5 and then 3.

所以我認為，對於 2022 年、2023 年，我們肯定會討論他們在擴張計劃方面需要什麼，他們有哪些計劃，他們看到了什麼。當我們談論 Logic 時，預計其產能會根據其貨架上的流片數量而增加，因此他們看到 Logic 的產能先是 5 個，然後是 3 個。

So it is not just some pie-in-the-sky thinking. It is this real underlying discussion that they have with their customers. And their design requirements that they get from an increasing customer base, which has to do with high-power compute there with AI and with -- with all the applications that we talked about because of the whole digital transition.

所以這並不是什麼不切實際的想法。這是他們與客戶進行的真正的潛在討論。他們從不斷增長的客戶群中獲得的設計要求與人工智慧的高效能運算以及我們在整個數位轉型過程中討論的所有應用程式有關。

So yes, there's more visibility to the point that the planning visibility is, I would say, deeper. And this is also where we base our request to the supply chain on. It's a vet on that discussion. And which is going to be -- it's a costly discussion because you not add capacity for nothing. So this is -- and it is also true for our customers. It's going to be costly, but they've been very explicit to the outside world and to the media about what their plans are.

是的，我認為規劃的可見度更加深入，更加可見。這也是我們向供應鏈提出要求的依據。這是該討論中的一位老手。這將是一場代價高昂的討論，因為你不可能無緣無故增加容量。所以這是——對我們的客戶也是如此。這將花費不菲，但他們已經向外界和媒體明確說明了他們的計劃。

It's thought through based on what they see for their customers and the customers of their customers tell them. So that's why I talk about these 3 trends. And this is -- this, basically, is the base for the visibility, but how much is in the end will be or we will need. There's always a risk of underestimation, but also risk of overestimation.

這是根據他們為客戶所看到的情況以及客戶的客戶告訴他們的情況而深思熟慮的。這就是我談論這三個趨勢的原因。這就是——這基本上是可見性的基礎，但最終我們需要多少呢？總是存在著低估的風險，但也存在著高估的風險。

And that's what we need to take into consideration when we say what's wise. And then, like I said, this is just something of the last 3 or 4 months where it starts to accelerate. It gives us a bit of time in our supplies, particularly, to figure out what is with them.

當我們談論明智之舉時，我們需要考慮這一點。然後，就像我說的，這只是過去 3 或 4 個月開始加速的事情。它給我們一些時間來處理我們的物資，特別是弄清楚它們裡面有什麼。

Thank you, Peter, for that insight. Even if I think you did call me old at the outset there, I still appreciate the color.

謝謝你，彼得，謝謝你的見解。即使我認為你一開始確實稱我為老，但我仍然很欣賞這種顏色。

It's all relative. And from my perspective, you are very young.

這都是相對的。從我的角度來看，你還很年輕。

Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar of Cowen and Co.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Co. 的 Krish Sankar。

I've also been around quite a bit, so let me ask you 2 quick questions. Clearly, a nice jump in EUV bookings in the March quarter. Can you give some color on how the EUV bookings are trending for the current quarter? And what is your EUV backlog in terms of units? And then I have a follow-up.

我也已經在這裡待了很久了，所以請容許我問您兩個簡單的問題。顯然，三月季度的 EUV 預訂量大幅成長。您能否介紹本季 EUV 預訂趨勢？就單位而言，您的 EUV 積壓訂單有多少？然後我有一個後續問題。

Roger?

羅傑？

Yes, I think I could take it. So in terms of order book, the current backlog is at EUR 7.4 billion for EUV. So that's pretty strong and obviously also driven by significant intake in the last quarter.

是的，我想我可以接受。因此，就訂單而言，目前 EUV 的積壓訂單價值為 74 億歐元。所以這是相當強勁的，顯然也是受到上個季度大量攝取量的推動。

I'm not going to comment specifically on this quarter, but in general, just listening to the commentary that we made on our expectations for next year, it's pretty clear that, also for the next quarters, we do expect a healthy order intake for EUV, right, because at this stage, EUR 7.4 billion. And if you do the math, what you think system business is going to be next year, if you translate that at the 55 capacity that we've been talking about, it's pretty clear that we're still looking at a significant order intake. Expect this for the next -- for this quarter and for the next quarters.

我不會針對本季度發表具體評論，但總的來說，只聽聽我們對明年預期的評論，很明顯，對於下個季度，我們確實預計 EUV 的訂單量會很健康，對吧，因為在現階段，訂單量為 74 億歐元。如果你算一下，你認為明年的系統業務將會是什麼樣子，如果你把它轉化到我們一直在談論的 55 個容量，那麼很明顯，我們仍然在尋找大量的訂單量。預計本季和下個季度都會出現這種情況。

Got it. Well, that's very helpful, Roger. And then just as a follow-up. Peter, you -- I know you gave some color on like the Memory outlook for this year. Can you just give little more insight in terms of how to think between DRAM and NAND in the context of a memory growth of 50% for this year?

知道了。嗯，這非常有幫助，羅傑。然後只是作為後續行動。彼得，我知道你對今年的記憶前景給了一些看法。您能否就今年內存增長 50% 的背景下如何看待 DRAM 和 NAND 提供更多見解？

Yes. I think the -- I think we're also -- it's an extension of what we said in the previous 2 quarters. It is primarily driven by DRAM, but we also see that 3D NAND will follow. I mean, what we see is basically following the utilization of our tools in the field. That will follow. But it is primarily driven this quarter, next quarter, and I think the majority of this year by DRAM.

是的。我認為——我認為我們也是——這是我們前兩個季度所說的內容的延伸。它主要由 DRAM 驅動，但我們也看到 3D NAND 也將隨之而來。我的意思是，我們所看到的基本上是跟隨我們在該領域的工具的使用情況。那就隨之而來。但我認為，本季、下個季度以及今年的大部分時間主要由 DRAM 驅動。

And our next question comes from the line of Alex Duval at Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的亞歷克斯·杜瓦爾。

Congratulations on the results. Just have a quick question on EUV gross margins. I mean the expected trajectory there, and so there's a small sort off the end this year to be at good gross margin levels. I wonder if you could just talk through the drivers of improvement as we go towards the end of the year. Then you referenced, related to this, that you're seeing higher ASPs related to a particular area the CMO. I was just wondering, to the extent that we see an expected ASPs of a D model could also be a gross margin with -- of EUV.

恭喜你取得這樣的成績。我只想問一個關於 EUV 毛利率的簡單問題。我的意思是那裡的預期軌跡，因此今年年底的毛利率水平會比較好。我想知道您是否可以談談在年底來臨之際推動改進的因素。然後您提到，與此相關，您看到與 CMO 特定領域相關的 ASP 更高。我只是想知道，就我們所看到的 D 型號的預期 ASP 而言，也可能是 EUV 的毛利率。

Yes, Alex. At the beginning, you were a little bit tough to understand, but I think your question really was, how do you expect the gross margin to further develop on EUV. And as we mentioned before, we do expect in the second half with the introduction of the D model, we expect EUV system gross margin to be at the level of the corporate gross margin. So -- and I can confirm that that's exactly what's going on.

是的，亞歷克斯。一開始，您的問題有點難以理解，但我認為您的問題實際上是，您預計 EUV 的毛利率將如何進一步發展。正如我們之前提到的，我們確實預計下半年隨著 D 車型的推出，EUV 系統的毛利率將達到企業毛利率的水平。所以——我可以確認事實確實如此。

You are right that the -- that we did see a little bit of a reset on the ASP for the C model, right? So we've been talking about 130. But as I mentioned, the configuration quarter after quarter turned out to be richer than we previously anticipated. And I think it's fair to say that the 10% to 15% uptick that we've been talking about on the -- for the D model, in comparison to the C model, still hopes right? So if you take the 145-ish basis for the C model, then I think a low, low TAM increase over that in terms of ASP, I think, is probably what you should be looking at for the ASP calculation.

您說得對——我們確實看到 C 模型的 ASP 有所重置，對嗎？所以我們一直在談論 130。但正如我所提到的，每個季度的配置都比我們之前預期的更加豐富。我認為可以公平地說，我們一直在談論的 D 模型與 C 模型相比的 10% 到 15% 的上漲仍然有希望，對嗎？因此，如果您採用 C 模型的 145 左右的基礎，那麼我認為就 ASP 而言，TAM 的低成長可能是您在計算 ASP 時應該考慮的。

And of course, to the extent that, that is better, that, of course, is also helpful a little bit on the gross margin side as well.

當然，從更好的程度來看，這對毛利率也有一點幫助。

Yes. Although the D has also somewhat higher cost.

是的。雖然D的成本也稍微高一些。

Sure. Yes.

當然。是的。

So that -- it's 100% to the bottom line, that we have some higher cost on the optics and also other parts. Correct, but it will help.

所以 — — 從根本上來說，我們在光學和其他零件上的成本確實更高。正確，但它會有所幫助。

And our next question comes from the line of Amit Harchandani of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Amit Harchandani。

I'm Amit Harchandani from Citi. My first question is on the topic of deep UV. If I try to collate all the data points you've shared with us, is it fair for me to say you would expect deep UV sales to be up year-on-year in 2022, given that you are just getting started in memory and cyclicality trend could persist into 2022? And as a follow-up to that, if I may. You've talked about building capacity for deep UV. You are stretched at EUR 8 billion. And you talked about double digit, I think, earlier in the call. Is it fair to say that you would expect this EUR 8 billion to be exceeded, or basically even a higher contribution from deep UV? If not in 2022, then certainly beyond 2020?

我是花旗銀行的阿米特‧哈爾查達尼 (Amit Harchandani)。我的第一個問題是關於深紫外線的。如果我嘗試整理您與我們分享的所有數據點，考慮到您才剛開始記憶，並且週期性趨勢可能會持續到 2022 年，我可以公平地說，您預計 2022 年深紫外線銷售額將同比增長嗎？如果可以的話，我可以跟進一下。您曾談到建立深紫外線能力。您的資金已達 80 億歐元。我認為您在早些時候的通話中談到了兩位數。您是否預期深紫外線的貢獻將超過 80 億歐元，或甚至更高？如果不是在 2022 年，那麼肯定會在 2020 年以後？

Yes. You've listened carefully, Amit, and that is true. Everything you just said, do we expect UV sales to be up year-on-year. I don't know about the year that you are imagining. But the fact that we are looking into increasing our deep UV capacity means that we believe deep UV sales will be up and in what year and is year-on-year. But I think, medium to long-term, we have, indeed, reassessed the need for deep UV capacity going forward.

是的。阿米特，你聽得很仔細，事實確實如此。正如您剛才所說，我們預計 UV 銷量會比去年同期成長。我不知道你想像中的那一年是怎麼樣的。但事實上，我們正​​在考慮增加深紫外線產能，這意味著我們相信深紫外線銷量將會上升，而且是在哪一年，並且是同比上升。但我認為，從中長期來看，我們確實重新評估了未來對深層紫外線容量的需求。

And when you talk about capacity increase, you don't do this for 1 year. You do this because you feel medium to long-term that is needed. So yes, and it also means that if we do that, then -- and we say we'll be around EUR 8 billion this year on deep UV. Yes, that we would expect that, that would increase because otherwise, you don't need to build capacity because we could do with what we have today.

當你談到增加產能時，你不會在一年內做到這一點。您這樣做是因為您覺得從中長期來看這是必要的。是的，這也意味著如果我們這樣做，那麼——我們說今年我們在深紫外線的投入將達到約 80 億歐元。是的，我們預期這一數字會增加，因為否則，你就不需要建立產能，因為我們可以利用我們今天擁有的產能。

Okay. I just wanted to clarify that. And secondly, very quickly on geopolitics. We've heard a lot of noise. Based on what you have said today, it seems like you expect the whole geopolitical dynamic to be a net positive. It may be some downside risk to China potentially being offset by potential upside in Europe and the U.S. Is that a fair assessment? Or more broadly, what are the latest -- what is the latest, in your view, versus what you shared with us end of January?

好的。我只是想澄清這一點。其次，我們來簡單談談地緣政治。我們聽到了很多噪音。根據您今天所說的，您似乎預計整個地緣政治動態將產生淨正面影響。中國可能面臨一些下行風險，但歐洲和美國的潛在上行風險可能會抵銷這種風險。這種評估公平嗎？或者更廣泛地說，最新消息是什麼——與您在 1 月底與我們分享的內容相比，您認為最新消息是什麼？

Yes. I think Roger said it, is that I think we are now where we are because we're through Q1, we're in Q2 now, we have included that EUR 600 million upside into the number that we gave you. However, we don't control the geopolitical situation and the lawmaking. But given the market situation where we are today, if some of that EUR 600 million would not be there because of geopolitical roadblocks, then the demand, actually, will ship those systems somewhere else.

是的。我認為羅傑說過，我認為我們現在處於目前的狀況，因為我們已經度過了第一季度，現在進入第二季度，我們已將 6 億歐元的上漲空間計入了我們給您的數字中。然而，我們無法控制地緣政治局勢和立法。但考慮到我們目前的市場狀況，如果由於地緣政治障礙而導致這 6 億歐元中的一部分無法到位，那麼實際上的需求將會轉移到其他地方。

And if you then look at how that affects shipments to China versus the longer-term geopolitical impact. It's just a matter of timing, yes? That's -- the first one could be short-term this year, the others are definitely long-term because when you -- they all -- it is all about where do we build a new fab. Well, it takes 2 to 3 years. So when you really look at adding capacity at the time frame, 24, 25. Is that capacity starts coming to the market. So it's all -- that's all matter of different timing, a different time perspective.

如果你再看看這對中國出口的影響以及長期的地緣政治影響。這只是時間問題，對嗎？那是 - 第一個可能是今年的短期計劃，其他的肯定是長期計劃，因為當你 - 它們全部 - 都與我們在哪裡建造新晶圓廠有關。嗯，需要2到3年。因此，當您真正考慮在 24、25 個時間範圍內增加產能時，產能就會開始進入市場。所以這都是——這都是不同時間、不同時間視角的問題。

All right. We have time for one last quick question. So if you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Now operator, may we have the last caller, please.

好的。我們還有時間回答最後一個簡短的問題。因此，如果您無法接通此電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。接線員，請接聽最後一位來電。

That is from the line of Didier Scemama of Bank of America.

這是美國銀行的 Didier Scemama 發來的消息。

I think the most important question was just asked and answered, so thank you. I wanted to ask you question about Installed Base Management for EUV, Peter, if you would like to maybe share with us what do you think the sort of revenues could be for EUV installed base this year? And how you're thinking about the slope of growth over the coming 5 years, those sort of things. So we have a feel for the change in the mix towards the sort of more recurring revenues in Installed Base, that would be great.

我認為最重要的問題剛剛已經提出並回答了，所以謝謝你。彼得，我想問您一個關於 EUV 安裝基數管理的問題，您是否願意與我們分享一下，您認為今年 EUV 安裝基數的收入會是多少？以及您如何看待未來 5 年的成長斜率，諸如此類的事情。因此，我們感覺到，組合朝著安裝基數中經常性收入更多的方向變化，這將是件好事。

Yes. So on the more recurring side, I think what we've said in the past is that the way to model that for EUV is to take the ASP of a tool and take about 6% of that. And that's when the tool is up and running at it's envisaged capacity, then you would have 6% of that ASP as the recurring revenue for service and maintenance for that tool.

是的。因此，從更常見的方面來看，我認為我們過去所說的是，對 EUV 進行建模的方法是採用工具的 ASP 並取其中的 6% 左右。當工具按照預期容量啟動並運行時，您將獲得該 ASP 的 6% 作為該工具的服務和維護的經常性收入。

So that excludes upgrades, but just for the regular sort of a maintenance. 6% of the ASP is what you would see there. So again, the assumption, the tool needs to be up and running at the envisaged capacity, and it should be out of warranty. As long as the tool is in warranty, the number is a bit lower. So that's really the way to model it.

因此，這不包括升級，而只是常規的維護。您會看到 6% 的 ASP。因此，再次假設，該工具需要按照預期的容量啟動和運行，並且應該超出保固期。只要工具在保固期內，這個數字就會低一些。這確實是建模的方法。

As it comes to upgrades, that's a little bit more difficult to do, right? Because upgrades is lumpy, upgrades is dependent on what the customer wants in terms of productivity gains, what they want to make available to us in terms of the machine time. So that's a little bit harder to predict. But at least, on the regular service and maintenance side, this is the way to model the 6% of the ASP once the tool is up and running and out of warranty.

說到升級，這有點困難，對吧？因為升級是不連貫的，所以升級取決於客戶在生產力提高方面的需求，以及他們希望在機器時間方面為我們提供什麼。所以有點難以預測。但至少，在常規服務和維護方面，這是在工具啟動運行並超出保固期後模擬 6% ASP 的方法。

All right. Thank you. Before we sign off, I'd like to remind you that our Investor Day will be September 29, 2021. The event is currently planned to be held in London. We moved the date from June and hope we can have a face-to-face meeting at the time, but of course, this will depend on the progress against the virus.

好的。謝謝。在我們結束之前，我想提醒您，我們的投資者日將於 2021 年 9 月 29 日舉行。該活動目前計劃在倫敦舉行。我們將日期從 6 月推遲，希望屆時能夠舉行面對面的會議，但當然，這將取決於對抗病毒的進展。

More details will follow in due time, and we do hope you'll be able to join us. Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

更多詳細資訊將在適當的時候公佈，我們真誠希望您能加入我們。現在，我謹代表 ASML 感謝大家今天的參加。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes the ASML 2021 First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。 ASML 2021 年第一季財務業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。