艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2021 First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on April 21, 2021. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 2021 年 4 月 21 日舉行的 ASML 2021 第一季度財務業績電話會議。（操作員說明）我現在想將電話會議轉交給 Skip Miller 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen.

謝謝你，接線員。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是 ASML 的首席執行官 Peter Wennink；和我們的首席財務官 Roger Dassen。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2021 First Quarter Results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 的 2021 年第一季度業績。此電話的長度為 60 分鐘，問題將按照收到的順序進行處理。該電話也通過互聯網在 asml.com 上進行直播。本次電話會議結束後不久，我們的網站上將提供管理層的開幕致辭和電話會議的重播。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentations found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理層在本次電話會議期間發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。有關風險因素的討論，我鼓勵您查看今天的新聞稿和我們網站 asml.com 上的演示文稿中包含的安全港聲明，以及 ASML 的 20-F 表格年度報告和提交給證券和交易委員會。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 進行簡要介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our Q1 2021 results conference call. And I hope all of you and your families are healthy and safe.

謝謝你，跳過。歡迎大家。感謝您參加我們的 2021 年第一季度業績電話會議。我希望你們所有人和你們的家人都健康平安。

Before we begin the question-and-answer session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the first quarter as well as provide our view of the coming quarters. Roger will start with a review of our Q1 2021 financial performance, with added comments on our short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook. Roger?

在我們開始問答環節之前，羅杰和我想對第一季度進行概述和一些評論，並提供我們對未來幾個季度的看法。羅傑將首先回顧我們 2021 年第一季度的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景進行補充評論。在介紹的最後，我將對當前的商業環境和我們未來的商業前景提出一些補充意見。羅傑?

Thank you, Peter. Welcome, everyone. I will first review the first quarter financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the second quarter of 2021.

謝謝你，彼得。歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第一季度的財務業績，然後為 2021 年第二季度提供指導。

Net sales came in above guidance at EUR 4.4 billion, primarily due to higher Installed Base business from upgrades. We shipped 9 EUV systems and recognized EUR 1.1 billion revenue from 7 systems this quarter. Due to the delay in one of our customers' road maps, we jointly decided to buy back 2 of their new systems and shipped these to another customer this year. This was accounted for as a revenue reversal in Q1 of 2021.

淨銷售額為 44 億歐元，高於預期，主要是由於升級帶來的已安裝基礎業務增加。本季度我們出貨了 9 個 EUV 系統，並確認了 7 個系統的 11 億歐元收入。由於我們的一個客戶的路線圖延遲，我們共同決定在今年回購他們的 2 台新系統，並將這些系統運送給另一位客戶。這被視為 2021 年第一季度的收入逆轉。

For the systems shipped in Q4 2020 with a new configuration, we were able to complete site acceptance and recognized revenue this quarter. We also shipped 1 system this quarter without factory acceptance testing, so revenue will be recognized in the subsequent quarter after a customer site acceptance. Again, the net result is 7 EUV revenue systems in Q1.

對於 2020 年第四季度交付的採用新配置的系統，我們能夠在本季度完成現場驗收並確認收入。我們本季度還交付了 1 個系統，但未進行工廠驗收測試，因此收入將在客戶現場驗收後的下一季度確認。同樣，最終結果是第一季度有 7 個 EUV 收入系統。

Net system sales of EUR 3.1 billion was again more weighted towards Logic at 78%, with the remaining 22% from Memory. The strength in Logic drives both deep UV and EUV revenue. The Memory business is mainly driven by DRAM. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.2 billion above guidance due to increased upgrade business as customers pull forward software upgrades that can quickly increase productivity of systems in this high-semiconductor-demand environment.

31 億歐元的淨系統銷售額再次以 78% 的比例更多地來自邏輯，其餘 22% 來自內存。 Logic 的實力推動了深紫外和 EUV 的收入。內存業務主要由 DRAM 驅動。本季度安裝基礎管理的銷售額比預期高出 12 億歐元，原因是升級業務增加，因為客戶推進軟件升級可以在這種高半導體需求的環境中快速提高系統的生產力。

Gross margin for the quarter was 53.9% and was above guidance due primarily to the additional software upgrade business. On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 623 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 168 million, which was slightly above our guidance. Net income in Q1 was EUR 1.3 billion, representing 30.5% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 3.21.

本季度毛利率為 53.9%，高於預期，主要是由於額外的軟件升級業務。在運營費用方面，研發費用為 6.23 億歐元，SG&A 費用為 1.68 億歐元，略高於我們的預期。第一季度的淨收入為 13 億歐元，占淨銷售額的 30.5%，每股收益為 3.21 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended first quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 4.7 billion. Moving to the order book. Q1 net system bookings came in at EUR 4.7 billion, including EUR 2.3 billion for EUV systems and another strong quarter of deep UV demand. Order intake was largely driven by Logic with 76% of bookings, primarily due to EUV order intake, with Memory accounting for the remaining 24%.

轉向資產負債表。我們在第一季度結束時的現金、現金等價物和短期投資為 47 億歐元。轉到訂單簿。第一季度淨系統預訂額為 47 億歐元，其中包括 EUV 系統的 23 億歐元和另一個強勁的季度深紫外需求。訂單量主要由 Logic 推動，佔訂單量的 76%，主要是由於 EUV 訂單量，而內存佔剩餘的 24%。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the second quarter of 2021. We expect Q2 total net sales to be between EUR 4 billion and EUR 4.1 billion. The directionally lower guidance is primarily due to shipments in the quarter, both EUV and deep UV, that will not receive factory acceptance testing due to customers' desire to bring systems into production as quickly as possible. Therefore, we will recognize revenue in subsequent quarters after completion of acceptance testing at customer sites.

有了這個，我想談談我們對 2021 年第二季度的預期。我們預計第二季度的總淨銷售額將在 40 億歐元至 41 億歐元之間。導向性較低的指導主要是由於本季度的出貨量，包括 EUV 和深 UV，由於客戶希望盡快將系統投入生產，它們將不會接受工廠驗收測試。因此，我們將在客戶現場完成驗收測試後在隨後的季度確認收入。

In addition, the Installed Base business is expected to be lower in Q2 versus Q1 as customers pulled forward installation of productivity software upgrades to quickly increase wafer capacity. We expect our Q2 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 900 million.

此外，由於客戶提前安裝生產力軟件升級以快速增加晶圓產能，預計第二季度的已安裝基礎業務將低於第一季度。我們預計我們的第二季度安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 9 億歐元。

Gross margin for Q2 is expected to be around 49%. The lower gross margin quarter-on-quarter is mainly due to delayed revenue from immersion systems that we plan to ship without factory acceptance testing as well as lower Installed Base Management sales versus Q1.

第二季度的毛利率預計在 49% 左右。毛利率環比下降主要是由於我們計劃在沒有工廠驗收測試的情況下發貨的浸入式系統的收入延遲，以及與第一季度相比已安裝的基礎管理銷售額下降。

Expected R&D expenses for Q2 are EUR 650 million. And SG&A is expected to come in at EUR 175 million, reflecting a continued investment in the future growth of the company. In support of our aggressive product road maps and opportunity to fill in some of our high-value product developments, we plan to increase our R&D investments, primarily in EUV, via increased development capacity.

第二季度的預計研發費用為 6.5 億歐元。 SG&A 預計將達到 1.75 億歐元，反映出對公司未來增長的持續投資。為了支持我們積極的產品路線圖和填補我們一些高價值產品開發的機會，我們計劃通過提高開發能力來增加我們的研發投資，主要是在 EUV 方面。

Furthermore, this increase will allow us to compensate for remote work impacts. We don't expect this increase to scale at the same level as our revised revenue increase, with R&D expenses for 2021 around 14% to 15% of sales. We expect SG&A to remain around 4% of sales for 2021. Our estimated 2021 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 14% and 15%.

此外，這種增加將使我們能夠補償遠程工作的影響。我們預計這一增長不會與我們修訂後的收入增長水平相同，2021 年的研發費用約佔銷售額的 14% 至 15%。我們預計 SG&A 將在 2021 年保持在銷售額的 4% 左右。我們預計 2021 年的年化有效稅率預計在 14% 至 15% 之間。

As mentioned last quarter, ASML intends to declare a total dividend with respect to 2020 of EUR 2.75 per ordinary share. This is a 15% increase compared to the 2019 dividend. Recognizing the interim dividend of EUR 1.20 per ordinary share paid in November 2020, this leads to a final dividend proposal to the general meeting of EUR 1.55 per ordinary share. The 2021 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders will take place on April 29, 2021 in Veldhoven.

如上個季度所述，ASML 打算宣布 2020 年每股普通股 2.75 歐元的總股息。與 2019 年的股息相比，這增加了 15%。考慮到 2020 年 11 月支付的每股普通股 1.20 歐元的中期股息，這導致向股東大會提出每股普通股 1.55 歐元的末期股息提案。 2021 年年度股東大會將於 2021 年 4 月 29 日在 Veldhoven 舉行。

In Q1 2021, ASML purchased 3.5 million shares under the 2020 through 2022 program for a total amount over EUR 1.6 billion. Our expected free cash flow generation enables the opportunity for continuation of significant share buybacks in the coming quarters, and we expect to complete the execution of our current share buyback program early.

2021 年第一季度，ASML 根據 2020 年至 2022 年計劃購買了 350 萬股，總金額超過 16 億歐元。我們預期的自由現金流產生為未來幾個季度繼續進行重大股票回購提供了機會，我們預計將儘早完成當前股票回購計劃的執行。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

有了這個，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, we had a very strong quarter in both sales and profitability, driven by continued strength in both Logic and Memory, as well as significant demand for upgrades, as customers look to bring additional capacity online as quickly as possible. The additional upgrades consisted primarily of software-based productivity packages.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如 Roger 所強調的那樣，在邏輯和內存的持續強勁以及對升級的巨大需求的推動下，我們在銷售和盈利能力方面都取得了非常強勁的季度表現，因為客戶希望盡快將更多容量上線。額外的升級主要包括基於軟件的生產力包。

We are seeing a significant increase in demand from our customers across all market segments on all nodes, mature and advanced, compared to 3 months ago. And we expect another very strong year with demand across our entire product portfolio.

與 3 個月前相比，我們看到客戶在所有節點、成熟和先進的所有細分市場的需求顯著增加。我們預計，我們整個產品組合的需求將是又一個非常強勁的一年。

The steeper-than-expected recovery in demand for semiconductors, amplified by the COVID, induced lower investments of the industry in 2020, thus creating significant upside to demand over the past quarter. This more cyclical demand sits on top of the secular growth from the accelerated buildup of the worldwide digital infrastructure and assuring demand not only for advanced and mature logic nodes, but also for memory.

受新冠疫情影響，半導體需求復蘇快於預期，導致該行業在 2020 年的投資減少，從而在過去一個季度為需求創造了顯著的上行空間。這種更具週期性的需求是在全球數字基礎設施加速建設和確保不僅對先進和成熟的邏輯節點，而且對內存的需求的長期增長之上的。

In Logic, customers continue to see strong demand across the broad application space for both advanced node as well as mature nodes. And last quarter, we expected revenue from Logic in 2021 to be up 10% year-on-year. However, we now expect Logic to be up around 30% this year.

在 Logic 中，客戶繼續看到廣泛應用領域對高級節點和成熟節點的強勁需求。上個季度，我們預計 2021 年 Logic 的收入將同比增長 10%。然而，我們現在預計 Logic 今年將上漲 30% 左右。

In Memory, the applications that are driving the strong Logic demand are also fueling demand for Memory. As we mentioned in earlier calls, the Memory recovery started last year and continues to strengthen as customer plans to increase capacity is driving significant demands for our systems in the second half of the year. Compared to last quarter, where we expected revenue from Memory in 2021 to be up 20% year-on-year, we now expect Memory revenue to be up around 50% this year.

在內存方面，推動強勁邏輯需求的應用也在推動對內存的需求。正如我們在之前的電話會議中提到的，內存恢復從去年開始，並且隨著客戶增加容量的計劃在下半年推動對我們系統的巨大需求而繼續加強。與上一季度相比，我們預計 2021 年內存收入將同比增長 20%，我們現在預計今年內存收入將增長約 50%。

On our Installed Base business, service revenue will continue to scale with the growing installed base and with increasing contribution from EUV services as these systems ramp more and more wafers in volume production. We're also supporting our customers with upgrades to maximize performance of their installed base.

在我們的已安裝基礎業務中，服務收入將隨著安裝基礎的增長以及 EUV 服務的貢獻增加而繼續擴大，因為這些系統將越來越多的晶圓投入量產。我們還支持我們的客戶進行升級，以最大限度地提高其安裝基礎的性能。

In order to meet the high demand in the current tight chip supply environment, customers are prioritizing software upgrades to quickly increase capacity, as reflected by our hardware upgrade of Memory in Q1. And some hardware upgrades require extended machine time to be installed. And in the current high-demand environment, customers will be less willing to take systems down, which has a dampening impact on the 2021 growth profile of hardware upgrades. We therefore still expect growth on our Installed Base business of around 10% this year, as mentioned last quarter.

為了滿足當前緊張的芯片供應環境下的高需求，客戶正在優先考慮軟件升級以快速增加容量，正如我們在第一季度對內存的硬件升級所反映的那樣。一些硬件升級需要延長機器安裝時間。在當前的高需求環境下，客戶將不太願意關閉系統，這對 2021 年硬件升級的增長情況產生了抑製作用。因此，如上個季度所述，我們仍預計今年安裝基礎業務的增長約為 10%。

On EUV, we continue to see increasing customer confidence in this technology, which is translating to expanding layer counts in Logic and increasing deployment of EUV in Memory at multiple customers, evidenced by a number of customer announcements around increases in their CapEx plans, which will include spending on EUV for advanced nodes.

在 EUV 方面，我們繼續看到客戶對這項技術的信心不斷增強，這正在轉化為擴大邏輯層數並增加在多個客戶的內存中部署 EUV，許多客戶宣布增加其資本支出計劃就證明了這一點，這將包括用於高級節點的 EUV 支出。

To support this strong EUV demand, we are working to increase our output capability. At the same time, we are driving our product road map to produce higher productivity machines, which will increase the effective EUV capacity per system and the wafer output capacity of our customers. We plan to transition to the NXE:3600D system in the second half of the year, which will provide customers with a 15% to 20% higher productivity compared to the NXE:3400C systems shipping in the first half of the year.

為了支持這種強勁的 EUV 需求，我們正在努力提高我們的輸出能力。與此同時，我們正在推動我們的產品路線圖以生產更高生產率的機器，這將增加每個系統的有效 EUV 產能和客戶的晶圓輸出能力。我們計劃在下半年過渡到 NXE:3600D 系統，與上半年出貨的 NXE:3400C 系統相比，這將為客戶提供 15% 到 20% 的生產力提升。

Limited by the available modules and parts this year, we're still planning for growth of around 30% in EUV revenue this year. With the expanding adoption of EUV at our customers, we see increased demand building in 2022 and beyond. We are improving our manufacturing cycle time and are planning our supply chain for a capacity of around 55 systems next year.

受限於今年可用的模塊和零件，我們仍然計劃今年的 EUV 收入增長 30% 左右。隨著我們客戶越來越多地採用 EUV，我們看到 2022 年及以後的需求增加。我們正在改進我們的製造週期時間，併計劃明年我們的供應鏈容量約為 55 個系統。

And as a reminder, all of our planned shipments in 2022 will be NXE:3600D systems, with the increased productivity capability. Our strength and outlook on the year relative to last quarter is primarily driven by the demand for deep UV systems.

提醒一下，我們計劃在 2022 年出貨的所有產品都將是 NXE:3600D 系統，並具有更高的生產力。與上一季度相比，我們今年的實力和前景主要是由對深紫外線系統的需求推動的。

With increased demand on leading-edge nodes as well as mature nodes running longer and ramping stronger, demand for our immersion and dry systems is stronger than ever. We have put in place plans to increase our deep UV capacity to help meet our customers' increased demands.

隨著對領先節點和成熟節點的需求增加，運行時間更長且增長更強勁，對我們的浸沒式和乾式系統的需求比以往任何時候都更加強勁。我們已製定計劃以提高我們的深紫外線容量，以幫助滿足客戶不斷增長的需求。

In our application business, as demand for scanners continues to increase, we expect a step-up in demand for our YieldStar metrology systems, particularly in Logic. The newly released YieldStar 385 is beginning to ramp across our customer base as well. And with the recovery in Memory, specifically in 3D NAND, we expect a substantial increase in e-beam inspection revenue this year.

在我們的應用業務中，隨著對掃描儀的需求不斷增加，我們預計對我們的 YieldStar 計量系統的需求將會增加，尤其是在邏輯方面。新發布的 YieldStar 385 也開始在我們的客戶群中推廣。隨著內存，特別是 3D NAND 的複蘇，我們預計今年電子束檢測收入將大幅增加。

For the industry at a high level, we see 3 trends driving considerable growth this year and in the years to come. The first trend, in the shorter term, that's more cyclical or, you could say, a catch-up-driven demand from decisions made in 2022 due to the global pandemic. These shortages were initially evident in the automotive market, but more recently, there are also indications of supply tightness impacting other market segments. We expect this to drive considerable demand for lithography systems this year and into next year.

對於高水平的行業，我們看到今年和未來幾年推動可觀增長的 3 個趨勢。第一個趨勢，在短期內，更具週期性，或者，你可以說，由於全球大流行，2022 年做出的決定是追趕驅動的需求。這些短缺最初在汽車市場很明顯，但最近也有跡象表明供應緊張影響了其他細分市場。我們預計這將在今年和明年推動對光刻系統的大量需求。

The second is a secular growth trend, driven by the digital transformation taking place as we become a more connected world across both people and machines. And this transformation was further accelerated over the past year with the increased remote activity and reliance on technology to stay connected.

第二個是長期增長趨勢，這是由數字化轉型推動的，因為我們在人與機器之間變得更加互聯的世界。過去一年，隨著遠程活動的增加和對技術保持聯繫的依賴，這種轉變進一步加速。

These secular trends are driven by expanding end-market applications, such as 5G, AI and high-performance computing. These and other mobile distributed applications drive demand for both advanced logic as well as more mature technology required for the services and applications that drive the growth of the digital infrastructure. And along with increased logic demand comes increased memory demand. This, in turn, drives demand across our entire product portfolio.

這些長期趨勢是由不斷擴大的終端市場應用推動的，例如 5G、人工智能和高性能計算。這些和其他移動分佈式應用程序推動了對高級邏輯以及推動數字基礎設施增長的服務和應用程序所需的更成熟技術的需求。隨著邏輯需求的增加，內存需求也隨之增加。這反過來又推動了我們整個產品組合的需求。

And the third trend, which we're starting to see now and which we will likely continue to see longer-term, is the desire for more technology sovereignty, which includes semiconductor and silicon-based technology, leading to a geographical decoupling, as different governments put initiatives in place to localize supply chains and become more self-sufficient. This, inevitably, will create some level of inefficiency in the semiconductor supply chain and creates additional equipment demand as more fabs are strategically built across the globe.

第三個趨勢，我們現在開始看到並且我們可能會繼續看到更長期的趨勢，是對更多技術主權的渴望，其中包括半導體和基於矽的技術，導致地理脫鉤，因為不同政府採取舉措使供應鏈本地化並變得更加自給自足。這不可避免地會在半導體供應鏈中造成一定程度的低效率，並隨著全球戰略性地建設更多的晶圓廠而產生額外的設備需求。

If we summarize the growth of the different segments and the trends just discussed, we now expect sales growth towards 30% this year. To achieve this growth, we are ramping up our capacity to support customer demand, resulting in a stronger second half.

如果我們總結不同細分市場的增長和剛剛討論的趨勢，我們現在預計今年的銷售額增長將達到 30%。為了實現這一增長，我們正在提高我們支持客戶需求的能力，從而使下半年更加強勁。

With the higher revenue and increased mix of deep UV and upgrades, we now expect gross margins to be between 51% and 52% this year. With the industry as a whole, the long-term demand drivers only increase our confidence in our future growth outlook towards 2025, and we plan to provide an update on our 2025 scenarios at our Investor Day in September.

隨著收入的增加以及深度紫外線和升級組合的增加，我們現在預計今年的毛利率將在 51% 至 52% 之間。就整個行業而言，長期需求驅動因素只會增加我們對 2025 年未來增長前景的信心，我們計劃在 9 月的投資者日提供有關 2025 年情景的最新信息。

And with that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

All right. Thank you, Peter and Roger. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. Beforehand, I would like to ask you kindly limit yourself to 1 question with 1 short follow-up, if necessary. This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible. Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

好的。謝謝你，彼得和羅傑。接線員將立即指導您問答環節的協議。在此之前，我想請您將自己限制在 1 個問題和 1 個簡短的後續行動中，如有必要。這將使我們能夠接觸到盡可能多的呼叫者。現在接線員，我們可以給您最後的指示，然後是第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini of SIG.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes. I want to follow-up on the EUV revenue target for this year. I understand that you're keeping it unchanged at 30%. But in case you're able to improve the supply chain and availability of subcomponent, could there be upside to the shipment, even though you may not be able to recognize the revenue? And I have a follow-up.

是的。我想跟進今年的 EUV 收入目標。我了解您將其保持在 30% 不變。但是，如果您能夠改善供應鍊和子組件的可用性，那麼即使您可能無法確認收入，出貨量是否會有上升空間？我有一個後續行動。

Yes, Mehdi. You just used 2 very important words, in case, which is the problem because we said it last quarter, these are very long-lead-time items. I mean, as a lens, as a manufacturing cycle time or, yes, I would say, lead them over 12 months. So if we have an audit, the lens is not going to be there.

是的，邁赫迪。您剛剛使用了 2 個非常重要的詞，以防萬一，這是問題所在，因為我們在上個季度說過，這些都是非常長的交付週期項目。我的意思是，作為一個鏡頭，作為一個製造週期，或者，是的，我會說，帶領他們超過 12 個月。因此，如果我們進行審計，鏡頭就不會存在。

So I think when we look at capacity increase, we really, really need to look at next year. I think it's virtually impossible to get more out of 2021 as we have planned today. So really, it's going to be -- that's why we also mentioned that working with our supply chain and looking at the demand next year, we are now planning, and we haven't received full confirmation yet of the supply chain on it. But our focus is on the 55 systems next year.

所以我認為，當我們考慮增加產能時，我們真的非常需要考慮明年。我認為幾乎不可能像我們今天計劃的那樣從 2021 年獲得更多收益。所以真的，這將是 - 這就是為什麼我們還提到與我們的供應鏈合作並查看明年的需求，我們現在正在計劃，我們還沒有收到關於供應鏈的完整確認。但我們的重點是明年的 55 個系統。

Bearing in mind also that, I think we said it before, customers are buying systems, but effectively, they're buying wafer capacity. And with next year, only 3600Ds, which already provides you with a 50% to 20% productivity increase. Well, if you then multiply, let's take the average of 15% to 20%, 17.5% or, let's say, 18% extra productivity increase for your system, then the 55 systems actually translate into 65 systems, with 3400C productivity. So it's -- this is the way that you need to look at it.

還要記住，我認為我們之前說過，客戶正在購買系統，但實際上，他們正在購買晶圓容量。明年，只有 3600Ds，它已經為您提供了 50% 到 20% 的生產力提升。好吧，如果你再乘以，讓我們取平均 15% 到 20%、17.5% 或，比如說，18% 的額外生產力提高，那麼 55 個系統實際上轉化為 65 個系統，具有 3400C 的生產力。所以它 - 這就是你需要看待它的方式。

Great. Thanks for the detail. And a quick follow-up. As I think about beyond 2021 and your operating margin, could there be a scenario where your key customers would share some of the development costs associated with High-NA, similar to what happened to EUV almost a decade ago, so that, that could also help drive overall operating margin to above 33%?

偉大的。感謝您的詳細信息。并快速跟進。當我考慮到 2021 年以後和您的營業利潤率時，是否存在這樣一種情況，您的主要客戶將分擔與高 NA 相關的一些開發成本，類似於近十年前 EUV 發生的情況，因此，這也可能有助於將整體營業利潤率提高到 33% 以上？

Well, I think -- I don't think it's likely because it's not necessary. I mean when we go back to almost a decade ago, our R&D expense at that time was EUR 600 million per year. And then when you looked at the size of the EUV program at that time and still you need to consider that the entire Low-NA EUV program will have cost more if we don't end it than the High-NA program.

嗯，我認為 - 我認為這不太可能，因為它沒有必要。我的意思是當我們回到大約十年前時，我們當時的研發費用是每年 6 億歐元。然後，當您查看當時 EUV 計劃的規模時，您仍然需要考慮，如果我們不結束整個 Low-NA EUV 計劃將比 High-NA 計劃花費更多。

So if you have a look at it then, the relative effort to bring EUV to life was so large that it would have put a significant financial strain on the P&L of ASML which, of course, we could not afford, which is not the case today. And I think, if you think about operating margins, it is more a matter of maturity of EUV, which will, of course, lead to better-performing tools with higher productivity, with higher value. EUV service revenue, that will grow going forward. And I think those are the most important drivers for operating margin. Roger?

因此，如果您當時看一下，將 EUV 帶入生活的相對努力是如此之大，以至於它會給 ASML 的損益錶帶來巨大的財務壓力，當然，我們負擔不起，但事實並非如此今天。而且我認為，如果您考慮營業利潤率，則更多的是 EUV 的成熟度問題，這當然會導致性能更好、生產率更高、價值更高的工具。 EUV 服務收入將繼續增長。我認為這些是營業利潤率最重要的驅動因素。羅傑?

Yes, I agree. I mean the gross margin components, I think, Peter, you just referenced them why -- it's the EUV ASP. And as a result of that, the EUV systems gross margin and the EUV service gross margin, those are the major drivers on the gross margin side.

是的我同意。我的意思是毛利率組成部分，我想，彼得，你剛剛引用了它們，為什麼 - 它是 EUV ASP。因此，EUV 系統毛利率和 EUV 服務毛利率是毛利率方面的主要驅動因素。

And I think, also, in the introduction, we've been pretty clear on what the ambition is for OpEx, right? So 14% to 15% for R&D and 4% for SG&A. And our longer-term ambition, at least, on the R&D side is to try and model that back to around 13% over time.

而且我認為，在介紹中，我們已經非常清楚 OpEx 的目標是什麼，對吧？所以研發佔 14% 到 15%，SG&A 佔 4%。至少在研發方面，我們的長期目標是嘗試將其模型化，隨著時間的推移將其恢復到 13% 左右。

I think that's what we stated, this R&D, yes?

我想這就是我們所說的，這個研發，是嗎？

That's in R&D. And those are the major drivers, I would say, to get the operating margin further up.

那是在研發中。我想說，這些是進一步提高營業利潤率的主要驅動力。

Yes.

是的。

And our next question comes from the line of Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

Can you hear me well?

你聽得清楚嗎？

Very well.

很好。

Great. So thanks for the color on how you increase capacity for this year and next year. That's very clear. My question would be more over 2, 3 years. If I recall correctly, like about my visit in winter in Veldhoven, you guys have set out to be able to do 60 EUV tools per year then 20 High-NA EUV tools. And when I took a shot at looking at how much would be needed over the next 3, 4 years, I felt like this was actually a bit limited and that you might actually need more capacity.

偉大的。因此，感謝您為今年和明年增加產能的方式。這很清楚。我的問題將超過 2、3 年。如果我沒記錯的話，比如我冬天在 Veldhoven 的訪問，你們已經著手每年製作 60 個 EUV 工具，然後是 20 個 High-NA EUV 工具。當我想看看未來 3 年、4 年需要多少容量時，我覺得這實際上有點有限，而且你實際上可能需要更多容量。

And so I would love to hear your take on that. In the longer term, do you think it will make sense to think about increasing your overall capacity? And if that's the case, what kind of lead times are we talking that for that kind of endeavor? And I have a quick follow-up.

所以我很想听聽你對此的看法。從長遠來看，您認為考慮增加整體容量是否有意義？如果是這樣的話，我們在談論這種努力的交貨時間是多少？我有一個快速跟進。

Yes. It's a very good question, Pierre. And I think it's a long-term strategic question. Let me try to answer it this way. When I talked about the 3 trends that the company will have to face in terms of demand cycles, that's, of course, the shorter term, which, you could say, it's a catch-up of the lower level of investments we saw last year because of the pandemic, which is -- which are catching up this year and I think throughout next year or, I think, as a part of next year.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，皮埃爾。我認為這是一個長期的戰略問題。讓我試著這樣回答。當我談到公司在需求週期方面必鬚麵對的三個趨勢時，當然是短期的，你可以說，這是我們去年看到的較低投資水平的追趕因為大流行，這是 - 今年正在迎頭趕上，我認為整個明年，或者，我認為，作為明年的一部分。

Then as the secular growth turn, which we have underestimated, I think you can go back to the Capital Markets Day in 2016 and '18, I don't think we, at that moment in time, anticipated the strength of the deep UV market that we see today. And that's the third trend, which is basically the driver of technological sovereignty by different countries and different governments.

然後隨著我們低估的長期增長轉向，我認為你可以回到 2016 年和 18 年的資本市場日，我認為我們當時沒有預料到深紫外市場的實力我們今天看到的。這就是第三個趨勢，它基本上是不同國家和不同政府技術主權的驅動力。

Those are all -- at this moment in time, those will be the drivers. But it's also difficult to really get a very clear view on this. So what your question is, taking that into consideration, should you guys be looking at increasing your capacity beyond the 60, the magical 60, that we always mentioned? Good question. And I think this is actually the work that we're doing today, yes?

這些都是——在這個時刻，那些將是驅動力。但也很難真正對此有一個非常清晰的認識。那麼你的問題是，考慮到這一點，你們是否應該考慮將自己的能力提高到我們一直提到的 60、神奇的 60 之後？好問題。我認為這實際上就是我們今天正在做的工作，是嗎？

We're looking at this, and why do we need to do this? So now the lead time -- now if you have to build a complete new factory, let's say you need to build a new optics factory, then the lead time is 2 to 3 years, yes? Because you need to build the factory, you need to procure the machines or then -- by the way, when it comes to optics manufacturing, you have to build those machines yourself because they're not available. So that will be longer.

我們正在研究這個，為什麼我們需要這樣做？所以現在是前置時間——如果你要建一個全新的工廠，假設你需要建一個新的光學工廠，那麼前置時間是 2 到 3 年，是嗎？因為你需要建造工廠，所以你需要採購機器，或者——順便說一下，當涉及到光學製造時，你必須自己建造這些機器，因為它們不可用。所以會更長。

But a lot of ways to increase capacity and that's through cycle time reduction, that's through process optimization. And so it's this complexity of measures that we can take to see how we can drive the total capacity up, which, by the way, all have lead times that are beyond the 55 units that we're planning for next year, which doesn't mean that it couldn't be higher in '23 and '24. But that's the work that we need to do today, which, by the way, we are doing, yes?

但是有很多方法可以提高產能，那就是通過減少週期時間，通過流程優化。因此，我們可以採取這種複雜的措施來了解如何提高總產能，順便說一下，所有的交貨時間都超過了我們明年計劃的 55 個單位，這不會並不意味著它在 23 和 24 年不可能更高。但這就是我們今天需要做的工作，順便說一句，我們正在做的工作，是嗎？

That makes sense. And a quick follow-up is very much related to that. You mentioned like the geopolitical situation. When I look at the overall value chain and how much it depends on what's happening in Veldhoven, on the single site where you assemble your tools, which is almost scary, it's a weak point for the global value chain and probably a place where your clients and governments are getting maybe a bit nervous about that. So do you have conversations with people around you about diversifying your size and creating supply that would not only be -- like, would be less dependent on the Netherlands?

這就說得通了。快速跟進與此密切相關。你提到的地緣政治局勢。當我查看整個價值鏈時，它在多大程度上取決於 Veldhoven 發生的事情，在您組裝工具的單個站點上，這幾乎是可怕的，它是全球價值鏈的一個弱點，可能是您的客戶聚集的地方政府可能對此有些緊張。那麼，您是否與您周圍的人討論過如何使您的規模多樣化並創造不僅會減少對荷蘭的依賴的供應嗎？

Yes. I think the -- that's the -- the situation of today is not very different than the situation 5 years ago. You could also -- you can only argue that the realization of people is now different, but has never changed. It's what it is.

是的。我認為 - 這就是 - 今天的情況與 5 年前的情況並沒有太大的不同。你也可以——你只能爭辯說現在人們的認識不同了，但從未改變過。就是這樣。

But the same can be said for our own customers that are basically concentrated in one particular area, or some of our peers that -- with some of their production facilities only make a couple of hundred tools per year in 1 or 2 single sites. It is the concentration of the semiconductor industry in different geographical areas that actually now starts to make governments think it has never been an issue, yes? It's only becoming an issue when this -- an almost seamless ecosystem that has been built across many, many borders are now being -- that ecosystem is now being threatened, I would say, almost by blockages of that seamlessness, yes? And then you get an issue, yes?

但是對於我們自己的客戶來說也是如此，這些客戶基本上集中在一個特定的區域，或者我們的一些同行——他們的一些生產設施每年只在 1 或 2 個單一地點生產幾百個工具。正是半導體產業在不同地理區域的集中，現在實際上開始讓政府認為這從來都不是問題，是嗎？只有當這個 - 一個幾乎無縫的生態系統已經跨越許多許多邊界建立起來 - 現在這個生態系統正受到威脅時，它才會成為一個問題，我會說，幾乎是由於這種無縫性的阻塞，是嗎？然後你會遇到問題，是嗎？

So -- but I think it's nothing different. It's always been this way, and especially over the last 5 years, I would say. There's high concentration of leading-edge technology across the value chain. But given the geopolitical situation, people are more aware of, it and they start now thinking of self -- of levels of self-sufficiency that, a couple of years ago, nobody thought of.

所以——但我認為這沒什麼不同。一直都是這樣，尤其是在過去的 5 年裡，我想說。價值鏈中的前沿技術高度集中。但考慮到地緣政治形勢，人們更加意識到這一點，他們現在開始考慮自我——幾年前沒人想到的自給自足水平。

And our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

Was wondering if you could help us on the updated 2021 guidance. And I think, last quarter, you had talked about there being potential upside from domestic China as we hadn't seen any change in the geopolitical situation or export controls. So just curious, can you help us understand, is that now included -- that upside included? And if so, how much is that?

想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解更新的 2021 年指南。而且我認為，上個季度，您曾談到中國國內存在潛在的上行空間，因為我們沒有看到地緣政治局勢或出口管制的任何變化。所以只是好奇，你能幫助我們理解，現在包括 - 包括上升空間嗎？如果是這樣，那是多少？

Yes. I think it's fair to say that, that upside is now included in the numbers that we've given. So it's clear, and Peter went through that also in the presentation at the beginning of this call, that we've revised upwards, if you like, the outlook for the full year. And further down into the year, we've now said this is how we look at the full year, of course, still expecting that the regulatory situation remains a little bit the way it is today. And therefore, what previously was upside -- and the way we talked about is this upside has now really been included in that number.

是的。我認為可以公平地說，這種上漲現在包含在我們給出的數字中。所以很明顯，Peter 在本次電話會議開始時的演示文稿中也經歷了這一點，如果你願意，我們已經向上修訂了全年的展望。再往下看，我們現在已經說過這就是我們對全年的看法，當然，仍然希望監管情況與今天保持一致。因此，以前的上升空間——我們談到的方式是這種上升空間現在已經真正包含在這個數字中。

Remember, last time, the expectation that we gave was that could be about EUR 600 million upside coming from China. And that number is now included in the, let's say, close to EUR 18 billion that we've now talked about.

請記住，上一次，我們給出的預期是來自中國的大約 6 億歐元的上漲空間。這個數字現在包含在我們現在討論的接近 180 億歐元中。

Yes. And if you then really want to think about the risk profile, you could say, well, when the regulatory situation changes and you could not ship to China, when you look at the market situation today, then -- which is quite different than 3 months ago, then we would ship those systems somewhere else.

是的。如果你真的想考慮風險狀況，你可以說，當監管情況發生變化並且你無法向中國發貨時，當你查看今天的市場情況時，那麼 - 這與 3 大不相同幾個月前，我們會將這些系統運送到其他地方。

Great. And then just as a follow-up, I just want to make sure I understand. The 2 systems that you repurchased from a customer, those were on the EUV side, and then you plan to ship those this year. And I guess, is that -- if that's correct, is that embedded in the 30% EUV revenue growth?

偉大的。然後作為後續行動，我只是想確保我理解。您從客戶那裡回購的 2 個系統是 EUV 方面的，然後您計劃在今年發貨。我猜，如果這是正確的，那是否包含在 30% 的 EUV 收入增長中？

Yes, it is. Yes, it is. Yes.

是的。是的。是的。

Yes. So we need...

是的。所以我們需要...

So you have a reversal in this quarter, and you will see it come back in the subsequent quarters. For the full year, it's neutral price.

所以你在這個季度有一個逆轉，你會看到它在接下來的幾個季度裡捲土重來。全年價格為中性價。

Yes. It's a wash.

是的。是洗頭。

It's minus 2 and plus 2, so it's a wash.

它是負 2 和正 2，所以它是一種洗滌。

And our next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc of Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Aleksander Peterc。

So you gave us a pretty clear outlook on EUV for '22. I just wondered about the longevity of this stronger cycle. Did you see the management in dry? Because that's where all of the upgrade today is coming through for '21. So I'm just wondering, is all of that then carrying into '22 as well? And then, just very quickly, if you could also provide a quick comment on ASPs? They were again very strong in this quarter, so if you could give the puts and takes there.

所以你給了我們對 22 年 EUV 的非常清晰的展望。我只是想知道這個更強循環的壽命。你看到管理層乾了嗎？因為這就是 21 年今天所有升級的地方。所以我只是想知道，所有這些是否也會進入 22 年？然後，很快，您是否也可以提供關於 ASP 的快速評論？他們在本季度再次非常強大，所以如果你可以在那裡進行看跌期權。

I'll do the ASP -- well, Roger will do the ASPs. And your question on the...

我會做 ASP——好吧，Roger 會做 ASP。而你的問題...

Sustainability.

可持續性。

On the sustainability, yes, and especially deep UV and apps. I think, as I said it on the -- as an answer on an earlier question, when we look at how we see the deep UV market and the aftermarket today as compared to 3 years ago, about 2018, I think we have a different view. And that's driven by the fact that, of course, our entire deep UV portfolio, which is immersion and dry, we have -- we cannot fulfill the demand of our customers all the time.

關於可持續性，是的，尤其是深紫外線和應用程序。我認為，正如我在前面的問題上所說的那樣，當我們查看與 3 年前（大約 2018 年）相比，我們如何看待今天的深紫外線市場和售後市場時，我認為我們有不同的看法看法。當然，這是因為我們的整個深紫外線產品組合（浸入式和乾燥式）都有——我們無法始終滿足客戶的需求。

And that has to do with the fact that our analysis shows that with the combination of, let's say, advanced sensing technology, 5G, the ability to process all the data through high-performance compute. And that, in a distributed fashion, basically leading-edge compute also goes to the edge. I call that distributed systems. And the distributed system is, for instance, a car, but it's also one of our machines in the field.

這與我們的分析表明，通過結合先進的傳感技術 5G，通過高性能計算處理所有數據的能力這一事實有關。而且，以分佈式方式，基本上領先的計算也走向了邊緣。我稱之為分佈式系統。例如，分佈式系統是一輛汽車，但它也是我們在該領域的機器之一。

And then, increasingly, requires collection of data, transport of data, processing of data, not only to the most advanced high-performance compute but as part of the distributed system. And that system inevitably includes mature technology, which could be image sensors, power ICs, MEMS, analog solutions. It's the whole thing. And that means, if we would have a high line system available today, it will be sold yesterday.

然後，越來越多地需要收集數據、傳輸數據、處理數據，不僅是最先進的高性能計算，而且是分佈式系統的一部分。而該系統不可避免地包括成熟的技術，可能是圖像傳感器、電源 IC、MEMS、模擬解決方案。這就是全部。這意味著，如果我們今天有一個高線系統可用，它就會在昨天出售。

So it's everywhere. And that has to do with the proliferation of chip technology and the distributed computing and the distributed systems that we are seeing. That is something that will not go away in our minds. This is why I said also in my prepared remarks that we are also planning and looking into what is the level of our deep UV capacity increase that we need, both in mature and in emerging. And it's going to be double-digit increase as from where we are today.

所以它無處不在。這與我們所看到的芯片技術、分佈式計算和分佈式系統的普及有關。那是在我們腦海中不會消失的東西。這就是為什麼我在準備好的講話中還說，我們也在計劃和研究我們需要的深紫外線容量增加水平，無論是成熟的還是新興的。從我們今天的位置來看，這將是兩位數的增長。

Now how much can we stretch that? Or how much is needed? That's exactly what we're doing with EUV. We need to line up with the supply chain. And we need to go deeper into what it takes in terms of capacity lead time. Do they need to build square meters? Do they need to hire people? Is it going to be possible through cycle time reductions or through process optimization?

現在我們可以拉伸多少？或者需要多少？這正是我們對 EUV 所做的事情。我們需要與供應鏈保持一致。我們需要更深入地了解在產能提前期方面需要什麼。他們需要建造平方米嗎？他們需要雇人嗎？是否可以通過縮短週期時間或通過流程優化來實現？

This is the work that we're doing today. Because remember, 5 months ago, we were looking at a completely different world, yes? So this is a ramp-up, but we do believe that this has a long runway.

這就是我們今天正在做的工作。因為請記住，5 個月前，我們正在尋找一個完全不同的世界，是嗎？所以這是一個加速，但我們確實相信這有很長的路要走。

Yes. On the ASP for EUV, it's well-noted, you're absolutely right. So this quarter, in Q1, we're looking at an ASP for EUV of about EUR 160 million. Part of that is configuration. We've talked about that in the past. If you look at the last 3 quarters, we've consistently been looking at an ASP of around EUR 145 million. And this time, it's a little bit up for another reason that I'll come to in a moment.

是的。在 EUV 的 ASP 上，值得注意的是，你是絕對正確的。因此，本季度，即第一季度，我們預計 EUV 的平均售價約為 1.6 億歐元。其中一部分是配置。我們過去曾討論過這一點。如果您查看過去 3 個季度，我們一直在關注 1.45 億歐元左右的 ASP。而這一次，由於另一個原因，它有點上升，我稍後會談到。

So in fact, what you see is that -- in fact, in the last year, we've been positively surprised by the options on the 2, the options that were ordered on the 2. And as a result of that, the configuration was richer than anticipated. And as a result of that, you fairly consistently see now that the ASP ranges above the EUR 130 million that we talked about in the past.

所以事實上，你看到的是——事實上，在去年，我們對 2 上的選項感到非常驚訝，在 2 上訂購的選項。因此，配置比預期的要豐富。因此，您現在相當一致地看到，平均售價超過了我們過去談到的 1.3 億歐元。

And it's fairly consistent. We've seen EUR 145 million or up. The reason that is extra of this, this year, there's a few accounting things. We've talked about accounting for VPAs in the past. So there's a few accounting reasons why it's a wide higher, it's a wide EUR 160 million rather than EUR 145 million.

而且相當一致。我們已經看到了 1.45 億歐元或更多。除此之外，今年還有一些會計方面的事情。我們過去曾討論過 VPA 的會計處理。所以有幾個會計原因為什麼它會更高，它是 1.6 億歐元，而不是 1.45 億歐元。

But we're out of the -- just looking at the configuration that we've seen on the tools in the past couple of quarters, the EUR 145 million anchor points, EUR 40 million ASP for EUV is probably the right way to go. And I'd say that, recognizing that this is about the last quarter that we're really looking at a large number of fees in the revenue.

但是我們已經超出了——僅看看我們在過去幾個季度在工具上看到的配置，1.45 億歐元的錨點，4000 萬歐元的 EUV 平均售價可能是正確的選擇。我會這麼說，認識到這大約是最後一個季度，我們真正看到了收入中的大量費用。

And our next question comes from the line of David Mulholland of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的大衛穆赫蘭。

Just coming back on the EUV capacity increase and shifting to 55 tool capacity for next year. Obviously, there were some changes made last year that ended up limiting what potentially should have been higher shipments this year, and some of that probably kicks in next year. But in your discussions with customers, Peter, just -- obviously, there's a very, very strong cyclical tailwind to the industry today that's driving appetite for capacity increase.

剛剛恢復 EUV 產能的增加，並在明年轉移到 55 個工具產能。顯然，去年做出了一些改變，最終限制了今年可能更高的出貨量，其中一些可能會在明年開始。但是，在您與客戶的討論中，彼得，很明顯，今天的行業有一個非常非常強大的周期性順風，這推動了對產能增加的需求。

But EUV is on a very, very long time horizon for customers 18 months rather than 6 months planning. How do you feel like their assumptions have changed that's driving that upside? Is it primarily because of their confidence and penetration of EUV in higher layers? Or is there an element of actually just building bigger nodes now that's driving the need for more capacity at this point?

但是對於客戶來說，EUV 的時間範圍非常非常長，需要 18 個月而不是 6 個月的計劃。你覺得他們的假設發生了怎樣的變化，從而推動了這種上漲？主要是因為他們對 EUV 在更高層的信心和滲透？或者現在是否存在實際上只是構建更大節點的元素，這推動了此時對更多容量的需求？

I think, David, it's both. I think we're seeing -- I only -- what I refer to as a comment that was made by the CEO of one of our large customers. That actually manage and know we're going to double the number of EUV layers on our next node. And I think that's a trend that we are seeing, simply because the advantages of EUV are not only, you could say, the pure economic cost per layer because you can eliminate multiple patterning, but it's also the electrical characteristics and the simplicity of the process. Lower risk, that's one of them, yes? So there's many other side effects that actually lead people to go for EUV.

我認為，大衛，兩者兼而有之。我認為我們正在看到 - 我只是 - 我所說的評論是由我們的一位大客戶的首席執行官發表的。這實際上管理並知道我們將在我們的下一個節點上將 EUV 層的數量增加一倍。我認為這是我們所看到的趨勢，僅僅是因為 EUV 的優勢不僅在於，你可以說，每層的純經濟成本，因為你可以消除多重圖案，而且還在於電氣特性和工藝的簡單性.降低風險，這是其中之一，是嗎？因此，實際上還有許多其他副作用導致人們選擇 EUV。

So yes, it's higher layer counts, that's what we're seeing, which is true for Memory and for Logic. But also, when we talk to customers, we all talk about bigger nodes. It has to do with this secular trend, trend #2 that I talked about. And that number -- and trend #3, the technological sovereignty, will just be a layer on top, which will not go away, which will take time. It takes 2 to 3 years to build a semiconductor factory, and we put it into action.

所以是的，這是更高的層數，這就是我們所看到的，這對於內存和邏輯都是正確的。而且，當我們與客戶交談時，我們都在談論更大的節點。這與我談到的這種長期趨勢有關，即趨勢#2。而這個數字——以及趨勢#3，技術主權，將只是頂層的一層，它不會消失，這需要時間。建立一個半導體工廠需要2到3年的時間，我們付諸行動。

So -- but I think this is -- so it is bigger nodes. It is strategic investments. It's High-NA accounts. And this is what I -- as an answer to a previous question, we all need to take this into consideration. Some of it we already saw coming, but what does it mean for our capacity needs beyond 2022, which, by the way, some of that capacity, if that would be needed, would be the result of, like I said, process optimization, cycle time improvement, different work schedules and potentially square meters, that could be. So -- but it's all of the above.

所以 - 但我認為這是 - 所以它是更大的節點。這是戰略投資。這是高NA帳戶。這就是我——作為對上一個問題的回答，我們都需要考慮到這一點。其中一些我們已經看到了，但這對我們 2022 年以後的產能需求意味著什麼，順便說一下，如果需要，其中一些產能將是，就像我說的，流程優化的結果，週期時間改進，不同的工作時間表和潛在的平方米，這可能是。所以——但就是以上所有。

And just one quick follow-up. Obviously, from a financial perspective, at some point in the near future, you need to start building those tools through the supply chain, given the lead times. Are you requiring customers to place deposits and make the financial commitments that you've been starting to make before any of those tools get built? Or is there an element still this year where you're going ahead and starting production before you've had firm deposit-associated orders from the customer?

只需快速跟進。顯然，從財務角度來看，在不久的將來的某個時候，考慮到交貨時間，您需要開始通過供應鏈構建這些工具。您是否要求客戶存入存款並做出您在構建任何這些工具之前已經開始做出的財務承諾？或者今年還有一個因素是你在從客戶那裡得到與存款相關的確定訂單之前就開始生產了嗎？

Yes, David, the policy hasn't changed there. So that means that when the customers put in a PO, a down payment is required. And I think we mentioned in the past that the amount of the PO is a little bit dependent on the moment where the order is being placed. So if the order is being placed nicely in line with the lead time, then the down payment is lower than one that's placed a little bit later than that.

是的，大衛，那裡的政策沒有改變。這意味著當客戶提交採購訂單時，需要預付定金。我想我們過去提到過，採購訂單的數量有點取決於下訂單的時間。因此，如果訂單的下達很好地與交貨時間一致，那麼首付就會低於下達稍晚的訂單。

But you also know that the PO in and by itself is a bit of a nonevent for us because we work so closely with the customer that we sort of understand what they're doing, what they want and when they need it. So the PO is a bit of a nonevent for us. But yes, the short answer is absolutely, there will be down payments to place at the moment of the PO.

但是您也知道，採購訂單本身對我們來說有點無關緊要，因為我們與客戶的合作如此密切，以至於我們有點了解他們在做什麼、他們想要什麼以及何時需要它。所以 PO 對我們來說有點無關緊要。但是，是的，簡短的回答是絕對的，在採購訂單的那一刻會有預付款。

And our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse at Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, first question, Peter, can you speak to the sustainability of Memory? I think the headline above 50% might be a bit concerning. However, if I think about EUV in there as well as the strong pickup in EUV, in voltage and contrast imaging, it certainly looks like Memory, ex those 2 things, is tracking more like up 20%, 25%. So I would love to hear your thoughts on the moving parts there, and how to think about sustainability into '22?

我想，第一個問題，彼得，你能談談記憶的可持續性嗎？我認為超過 50% 的標題可能有點令人擔憂。但是，如果我考慮其中的 EUV 以及 EUV 在電壓和對比度成像方面的強勁回升，它肯定看起來像內存，除了這兩個東西，跟踪更像是 20%、25%。所以我很想听聽您對那裡的移動部件的看法，以及如何考慮到 22 年的可持續性？

Yes. I think, for this year, it's not a surprise. I mean, you just need to go back to our conference calls in the last 2 quarters, where we actually saw a recovery of especially DRAM starting. And I think I gave some color 3 months ago where I basically said, yes, we had a decent shipment core in Q4 of last year, which basically goes into production in Q1.

是的。我認為，對於今年來說，這並不令人意外。我的意思是，你只需要回到過去兩個季度的電話會議，我們實際上看到了特別是 DRAM 開始的複蘇。我想我在 3 個月前給出了一些顏色，我基本上說，是的，我們在去年第四季度有一個不錯的出貨核心，基本上在第一季度投入生產。

But if you look at a bit growth of 20% this year, then our calculations show that we very quickly -- at the next output capacity of our DRAM customers in this year, where -- and we would reach that pretty quick, so we would need more capacity addition. That's exactly what we have seen. So I think it's just the beginning. These things -- so yes, I think, yes, it will move into next year.

但是如果你看一下今年 20% 的增長，那麼我們的計算表明，我們很快——在今年我們的 DRAM 客戶的下一個輸出能力——我們會很快達到這個目標，所以我們將需要更多的容量增加。這正是我們所看到的。所以我認為這只是一個開始。這些事情——所以是的，我認為，是的，它將進入明年。

Now you've been around also long. So that -- in the Memory business, yes, there is more tendency to have, from time to time, some overcapacity and some undercapacity. But how long that will last, I don't know. But still, this is some -- [there was a BM above] telling me, say, this secular trend, when there's such a high demand in logic, all this stuff doesn't only work with only logic. So it also needs memory, yes?

現在你已經存在了很長時間。所以——在內存業務中，是的，有更多的趨勢是不時出現產能過剩和產能不足的情況。但這會持續多久，我不知道。但是，這仍然是一些 - [上面有一個 BM] 告訴我，比如說，這種長期趨勢，當對邏輯有如此高的要求時，所有這些東西不僅僅適用於邏輯。所以它也需要內存，是嗎？

So it's going to be quite interesting to see how quickly the Memory capacity will be added throughout this year, early next year, and what the underlying bit growth percentages will be. Now I think, having said that, you notice also Memory is more cyclical than Logic, but nothing that indicated to me, at this moment in time, that we are looking at building an overcapacity. There's nothing I can see at this moment in time. We're just starting.

因此，看看今年，明年初，內存容量增加的速度有多快，以及潛在的比特增長百分比將是多少，這將是一件非常有趣的事情。現在我想，話雖如此，你也注意到內存比邏輯更具週期性，但在這個時刻，沒有任何跡象表明我們正在考慮建立產能過剩。此刻我什麼都看不到。我們才剛剛開始。

Very helpful. And then just a follow-on question on the DUV side of things. I think you guys have talked about growing your non-EUV tool business by about 40%. So that's roughly $7.7 billion this year. Is there a way to frame how much capacity you're planning to add on the non-EUV side relative to that $7.7 billion for us to kind of gauge what you're capable above into '22 and beyond?

很有幫助。然後只是關於 DUV 方面的後續問題。我認為你們已經談到將非 EUV 工具業務增長約 40%。所以今年大約是 77 億美元。有沒有辦法確定您計劃在非 EUV 方面增加多少容量（相對於 77 億美元），以便我們衡量您在 22 年及以後的能力？

Yes. As I think, we -- if we should calculate it the way that we would calculate about, for example, we would just be over $8 billion, yes?

是的。我認為，如果我們按照我們的計算方式計算，例如，我們將超過 80 億美元，是嗎？

$8.2 billion.

82億美元。

About $8.2 billion. And that's really stretching it, in terms of our production capacity this year. If it would have more capacity, we could probably do more. Okay. Likely, we would be able to do more. So your question really is answered in a sense that I already said in my prepared remarks, we're looking at increasing our deep UV capacity, both dry, mature and immersion. And that's not going to be 5%.

約82億美元。就我們今年的生產能力而言，這真的很費力。如果它有更多的容量，我們可能會做得更多。好的。很可能，我們可以做得更多。所以你的問題在某種意義上確實得到了回答，正如我在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們正在考慮增加我們的深紫外線容量，包括乾燥、成熟和浸泡。這不會是5%。

I mean it's going to be double digit. But that will take some further analysis of what needs to be done. Is it through optimization, yes? Things like process optimization and added workforce or cycle time reduction. Or has it to do with square meter capacity for like factories? That is something that we'll -- as under consideration today, and we're looking into that together with our supply chain. So not so much for us, that is really in the supply chain, yes?

我的意思是這將是兩位數。但這需要進一步分析需要做什麼。是通過優化，是嗎？諸如流程優化和增加勞動力或縮短週期時間之類的事情。還是與類似工廠的平方米產能有關？這是我們將要考慮的事情 - 正如今天所考慮的那樣，我們正在與我們的供應鏈一起研究這一點。所以對我們來說不是那麼多，這真的是在供應鏈中，是嗎？

So the reason why I say this is because we believe that we need extra capacity, yes? And it has to do with the underlying trends, the trends that I talked about earlier. So yes, the 40% makes me think to just over $8 billion, yes? Where you have $7.7 billion, so you're a bit more conservative. But this is -- directionally, it is correct, but this is the answer.

所以我之所以這麼說是因為我們認為我們需要額外的容量，是嗎？它與潛在趨勢有關，也就是我之前談到的趨勢。所以是的，這 40% 讓我覺得剛剛超過 80 億美元，是嗎？你有77億美元，所以你有點保守。但這是——在方向上，它是正確的，但這就是答案。

And our next question comes from the line of Andrew Gardiner at Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Gardiner。

Another one, Peter, on the sort of capacity planning issues that you guys have just been talking about. I'm wondering, given the changes that we've seen from a number of your lead customers or at least the public announcements from your lead customers over the last 3 or 4 months and the fact that you are now having to rethink the need for additional capacity expansion, whether your site or within the supply chain, are they now giving -- and I presume yes, they're wanting it sooner rather than later.

另一個，彼得，關於你們剛才談論的那種容量規劃問題。我想知道，鑑於我們從您的一些主要客戶那裡看到的變化，或者至少在過去 3 或 4 個月內您的主要客戶的公開公告，以及您現在不得不重新考慮需要額外的容量擴展，無論是您的站點還是在供應鏈中，他們現在是否給予 - 我想是的，他們希望早日而不是遲到。

It always seems to be the way. And yet you've got fairly extensive lead times, particularly so for EUV, perhaps slightly less so for DUV in terms of building out this capacity. Are you getting better visibility today in terms of what those customers are going to need looking out over the next 3, 4, 5 years in order to give you that confidence in making such a decision?

似乎總是這樣。然而，你有相當長的交貨時間，特別是對於 EUV 來說，在建立這種能力方面，對於 DUV 來說可能稍微少一些。就這些客戶在未來 3 年、4 年、5 年內需要關注的事項而言，您今天是否獲得了更好的可見性，以便讓您有信心做出這樣的決定？

Yes. It's a good question. I mean, and also, you've been around also. I think all these people have been around for a long time. So that -- yes, when we underinvest, there's also going to be a knee-jerk reaction, like it always happens. So this is more the shorter-term correction of a misplanning, yes? That's happening today.

是的。這是個好問題。我的意思是，而且，你也一直在附近。我想所有這些人都已經存在了很長時間。所以——是的，當我們投資不足時，也會有一種下意識的反應，就像它總是發生的那樣。所以這更像是對計劃失誤的短期修正，是嗎？這就是今天發生的事情。

That's what I call -- it's the trend #1, yes? But clearly, customers understanding that our capacity lead times and our manufacturing lead times are wrong. So they do share with us a longer-term vision. Now I'm not 5 years out, that's a bit too much to ask. But certainly 2, 3 years out, yes?

這就是我所說的——這是趨勢#1，是嗎？但很明顯，客戶理解我們的產能提前期和製造提前期是錯誤的。所以他們確實與我們分享了一個長期的願景。現在我還不到 5 年，這有點太要求了。但肯定是 2、3 年後，是嗎？

So I think, I would say, for 2022, 2023, we definitely have the discussions about what they need in terms of expansion plans, in terms of that they have plans, in terms of what they see. When we talk about Logic, the anticipated capacity ramp in terms of the tape-outs that they have on the shelves so that they see it coming on and 5 and then 3.

所以我認為，我會說，對於 2022 年和 2023 年，我們肯定會討論他們在擴張計劃方面的需求，就他們有計劃而言，就他們所看到的而言。當我們談論 Logic 時，預期的容量會隨著他們在貨架上的流片而增加，以便他們看到它的出現，然後是 5，然後是 3。

So it is not just some pie-in-the-sky thinking. It is this real underlying discussion that they have with their customers. And their design requirements that they get from an increasing customer base, which has to do with high-power compute there with AI and with -- with all the applications that we talked about because of the whole digital transition.

所以這不僅僅是一些天上掉餡餅的想法。他們與客戶進行的正是這種真正的潛在討論。以及他們從不斷增長的客戶群中獲得的設計要求，這與人工智能和我們討論的所有應用程序的高功率計算有關，因為整個數字化轉型。

So yes, there's more visibility to the point that the planning visibility is, I would say, deeper. And this is also where we base our request to the supply chain on. It's a vet on that discussion. And which is going to be -- it's a costly discussion because you not add capacity for nothing. So this is -- and it is also true for our customers. It's going to be costly, but they've been very explicit to the outside world and to the media about what their plans are.

所以，是的，我會說，規劃的可見性更深。這也是我們對供應鏈提出要求的依據。這是那個討論的獸醫。這將是——這是一個代價高昂的討論，因為你不會白白增加容量。所以這是 - 對我們的客戶來說也是如此。這將是昂貴的，但他們已經非常明確地向外界和媒體表明他們的計劃是什麼。

It's thought through based on what they see for their customers and the customers of their customers tell them. So that's why I talk about these 3 trends. And this is -- this, basically, is the base for the visibility, but how much is in the end will be or we will need. There's always a risk of underestimation, but also risk of overestimation.

它是根據他們為客戶看到的以及客戶的客戶告訴他們的內容而深思熟慮的。所以這就是我談論這三個趨勢的原因。這是 - 這基本上是可見性的基礎，但最終會有多少或我們需要多少。總是有被低估的風險，但也有被高估的風險。

And that's what we need to take into consideration when we say what's wise. And then, like I said, this is just something of the last 3 or 4 months where it starts to accelerate. It gives us a bit of time in our supplies, particularly, to figure out what is with them.

這就是我們在說什麼是明智的時候需要考慮的。然後，就像我說的，這只是過去 3 或 4 個月開始加速的情況。它給了我們一些時間來處理我們的供應，特別是弄清楚它們是什麼。

Thank you, Peter, for that insight. Even if I think you did call me old at the outset there, I still appreciate the color.

謝謝你，彼得，你的洞察力。即使我認為你一開始確實稱我為老，我仍然很欣賞這種顏色。

It's all relative. And from my perspective, you are very young.

都是相對的。從我的角度來看，你還很年輕。

Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar of Cowen and Co.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Co. 的 Krish Sankar。

I've also been around quite a bit, so let me ask you 2 quick questions. Clearly, a nice jump in EUV bookings in the March quarter. Can you give some color on how the EUV bookings are trending for the current quarter? And what is your EUV backlog in terms of units? And then I have a follow-up.

我也去過很多地方，所以讓我問你兩個簡單的問題。顯然，3 月季度的 EUV 預訂量大幅增長。您能否就當前季度的 EUV 預訂趨勢發表一些看法？就單位而言，您的 EUV 積壓是多少？然後我有一個跟進。

Roger?

羅傑?

Yes, I think I could take it. So in terms of order book, the current backlog is at EUR 7.4 billion for EUV. So that's pretty strong and obviously also driven by significant intake in the last quarter.

是的，我想我可以接受。因此，就訂單而言，EUV 目前的積壓訂單為 74 億歐元。所以這是相當強勁的，顯然也是由上一季度的大量攝入推動的。

I'm not going to comment specifically on this quarter, but in general, just listening to the commentary that we made on our expectations for next year, it's pretty clear that, also for the next quarters, we do expect a healthy order intake for EUV, right, because at this stage, EUR 7.4 billion. And if you do the math, what you think system business is going to be next year, if you translate that at the 55 capacity that we've been talking about, it's pretty clear that we're still looking at a significant order intake. Expect this for the next -- for this quarter and for the next quarters.

我不會具體評論本季度，但總的來說，只要聽聽我們對明年的預期所做的評論，很明顯，在接下來的幾個季度，我們確實希望收到健康的訂單EUV，對，因為在這個階段，74 億歐元。如果你算一下，你認為明年的系統業務將是什麼，如果你將其轉換為我們一直在談論的 55 個容量，很明顯我們仍在尋找大量訂單。預計下一個季度和下一個季度都會出現這種情況。

Got it. Well, that's very helpful, Roger. And then just as a follow-up. Peter, you -- I know you gave some color on like the Memory outlook for this year. Can you just give little more insight in terms of how to think between DRAM and NAND in the context of a memory growth of 50% for this year?

知道了。嗯，這很有幫助，羅傑。然後只是作為後續行動。彼得，你——我知道你對今年的記憶前景給出了一些看法。在今年內存增長 50% 的背景下，您能否就如何思考 DRAM 和 NAND 提供更多見解？

Yes. I think the -- I think we're also -- it's an extension of what we said in the previous 2 quarters. It is primarily driven by DRAM, but we also see that 3D NAND will follow. I mean, what we see is basically following the utilization of our tools in the field. That will follow. But it is primarily driven this quarter, next quarter, and I think the majority of this year by DRAM.

是的。我認為 - 我認為我們也是 - 這是我們在前兩個季度所說的內容的延伸。它主要由 DRAM 驅動，但我們也看到 3D NAND 將緊隨其後。我的意思是，我們所看到的基本上是遵循我們在該領域的工具的使用情況。那將隨之而來。但它主要是在本季度、下一季度驅動，我認為今年大部分時間都是由 DRAM 驅動的。

And our next question comes from the line of Alex Duval at Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Duval。

Congratulations on the results. Just have a quick question on EUV gross margins. I mean the expected trajectory there, and so there's a small sort off the end this year to be at good gross margin levels. I wonder if you could just talk through the drivers of improvement as we go towards the end of the year. Then you referenced, related to this, that you're seeing higher ASPs related to a particular area the CMO. I was just wondering, to the extent that we see an expected ASPs of a D model could also be a gross margin with -- of EUV.

祝賀結果。只是對 EUV 毛利率有一個簡短的問題。我的意思是那裡的預期軌跡，因此今年年底會有一個小幅度達到良好的毛利率水平。我想知道你是否可以在我們接近年底時談談改進的驅動因素。然後你提到，與此相關的是，你看到與 CMO 特定領域相關的更高的 ASP。我只是想知道，在某種程度上，我們看到 D 模型的預期 ASP 也可能是 EUV 的毛利率。

Yes, Alex. At the beginning, you were a little bit tough to understand, but I think your question really was, how do you expect the gross margin to further develop on EUV. And as we mentioned before, we do expect in the second half with the introduction of the D model, we expect EUV system gross margin to be at the level of the corporate gross margin. So -- and I can confirm that that's exactly what's going on.

是的，亞歷克斯。一開始，您有點難以理解，但我認為您的問題確實是，您如何期望 EUV 的毛利率進一步發展。正如我們之前提到的，我們確實預計下半年隨著 D 模型的引入，我們預計 EUV 系統的毛利率將處於企業毛利率的水平。所以 - 我可以確認這正是正在發生的事情。

You are right that the -- that we did see a little bit of a reset on the ASP for the C model, right? So we've been talking about 130. But as I mentioned, the configuration quarter after quarter turned out to be richer than we previously anticipated. And I think it's fair to say that the 10% to 15% uptick that we've been talking about on the -- for the D model, in comparison to the C model, still hopes right? So if you take the 145-ish basis for the C model, then I think a low, low TAM increase over that in terms of ASP, I think, is probably what you should be looking at for the ASP calculation.

你說得對——我們確實看到 C 模型的 ASP 有一點重置，對吧？所以我們一直在談論 130。但正如我所提到的，一個季度一個季度的配置結果比我們之前預期的要豐富。而且我認為公平地說，我們一直在談論的 10% 到 15% 的增長——對於 D 模型，與 C 模型相比，仍然希望對嗎？因此，如果您採用 C 模型的 145-ish 基礎，那麼我認為，在 ASP 方面，TAM 的低、低增加可能是您在計算 ASP 時應該考慮的。

And of course, to the extent that, that is better, that, of course, is also helpful a little bit on the gross margin side as well.

當然，在某種程度上，這更好，當然，這在毛利率方面也有一點幫助。

Yes. Although the D has also somewhat higher cost.

是的。雖然D的成本也高一些。

Sure. Yes.

當然。是的。

So that -- it's 100% to the bottom line, that we have some higher cost on the optics and also other parts. Correct, but it will help.

所以——這是 100% 的底線，我們在光學器件和其他部件上的成本更高。正確，但會有所幫助。

And our next question comes from the line of Amit Harchandani of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Amit Harchandani。

I'm Amit Harchandani from Citi. My first question is on the topic of deep UV. If I try to collate all the data points you've shared with us, is it fair for me to say you would expect deep UV sales to be up year-on-year in 2022, given that you are just getting started in memory and cyclicality trend could persist into 2022? And as a follow-up to that, if I may. You've talked about building capacity for deep UV. You are stretched at EUR 8 billion. And you talked about double digit, I think, earlier in the call. Is it fair to say that you would expect this EUR 8 billion to be exceeded, or basically even a higher contribution from deep UV? If not in 2022, then certainly beyond 2020?

我是花旗的 Amit Harchandani。我的第一個問題是關於深紫外線的。如果我嘗試整理您與我們共享的所有數據點，我是否可以公平地說，鑑於您剛剛開始記憶和週期性趨勢可能會持續到 2022 年？如果可以的話，作為後續行動。你談到了建立深紫外線的能力。您的身家為 80 億歐元。我認為，您在電話會議的早些時候談到了兩位數。公平地說，您預計這 80 億歐元會被超過，或者說深紫外光的貢獻基本上會更高嗎？如果不是在 2022 年，那麼肯定是在 2020 年之後？

Yes. You've listened carefully, Amit, and that is true. Everything you just said, do we expect UV sales to be up year-on-year. I don't know about the year that you are imagining. But the fact that we are looking into increasing our deep UV capacity means that we believe deep UV sales will be up and in what year and is year-on-year. But I think, medium to long-term, we have, indeed, reassessed the need for deep UV capacity going forward.

是的。你已經仔細聽過了，阿米特，這是真的。您剛才所說的一切，我們是否預計紫外線銷售額會同比增長。我不知道你想像的那一年。但是，我們正在考慮增加深紫外線產能這一事實意味著我們相信深紫外線銷量將會上升，並且會在哪一年和去年同比增長。但我認為，從中長期來看，我們確實已經重新評估了未來對深紫外線容量的需求。

And when you talk about capacity increase, you don't do this for 1 year. You do this because you feel medium to long-term that is needed. So yes, and it also means that if we do that, then -- and we say we'll be around EUR 8 billion this year on deep UV. Yes, that we would expect that, that would increase because otherwise, you don't need to build capacity because we could do with what we have today.

當你談論產能增加時，你不會在 1 年內這樣做。你這樣做是因為你覺得需要中長期。所以是的，這也意味著如果我們這樣做，那麼 - 我們說今年我們將在深紫外線方面投入約 80 億歐元。是的，我們預計會增加，因為否則，你不需要建設能力，因為我們可以用我們今天擁有的東西來做。

Okay. I just wanted to clarify that. And secondly, very quickly on geopolitics. We've heard a lot of noise. Based on what you have said today, it seems like you expect the whole geopolitical dynamic to be a net positive. It may be some downside risk to China potentially being offset by potential upside in Europe and the U.S. Is that a fair assessment? Or more broadly, what are the latest -- what is the latest, in your view, versus what you shared with us end of January?

好的。我只是想澄清一下。其次，在地緣政治方面非常迅速。我們聽到了很多噪音。根據您今天所說的，您似乎預計整個地緣政治動態將是淨積極的。中國的一些下行風險可能被歐洲和美國的潛在上行所抵消。這是一個公平的評估嗎？或者更廣泛地說，最新的是什麼——在你看來，最新的是什麼，而不是你在 1 月底與我們分享的內容？

Yes. I think Roger said it, is that I think we are now where we are because we're through Q1, we're in Q2 now, we have included that EUR 600 million upside into the number that we gave you. However, we don't control the geopolitical situation and the lawmaking. But given the market situation where we are today, if some of that EUR 600 million would not be there because of geopolitical roadblocks, then the demand, actually, will ship those systems somewhere else.

是的。我認為羅傑說過，我認為我們現在所處的位置是因為我們已經度過了第一季度，我們現在處於第二季度，我們已經將 6 億歐元的上行空間包含在我們提供給您的數字中。但是，我們無法控制地緣政治局勢和立法。但考慮到我們今天的市場情況，如果由於地緣政治障礙而無法提供這 6 億歐元中的一部分，那麼實際上，需求會將這些系統運送到其他地方。

And if you then look at how that affects shipments to China versus the longer-term geopolitical impact. It's just a matter of timing, yes? That's -- the first one could be short-term this year, the others are definitely long-term because when you -- they all -- it is all about where do we build a new fab. Well, it takes 2 to 3 years. So when you really look at adding capacity at the time frame, 24, 25. Is that capacity starts coming to the market. So it's all -- that's all matter of different timing, a different time perspective.

如果你再看看這對對中國的出貨量與長期地緣政治影響有何影響。這只是時間問題，是嗎？那是——今年第一個可能是短期的，其他的肯定是長期的，因為當你們——他們所有人——都是關於我們在哪裡建造新工廠的問題。嗯，需要2到3年。因此，當您真正考慮在 24、25 的時間範圍內增加容量時。該容量是否開始進入市場。所以這一切 - 這都是不同的時間，不同的時間視角的問題。

All right. We have time for one last quick question. So if you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Now operator, may we have the last caller, please.

好的。我們有時間回答最後一個快速問題。因此，如果您無法接通本次電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯繫 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。現在接線員，請給我們最後一個來電者。

That is from the line of Didier Scemama of Bank of America.

這來自美國銀行的 Didier Scemama。

I think the most important question was just asked and answered, so thank you. I wanted to ask you question about Installed Base Management for EUV, Peter, if you would like to maybe share with us what do you think the sort of revenues could be for EUV installed base this year? And how you're thinking about the slope of growth over the coming 5 years, those sort of things. So we have a feel for the change in the mix towards the sort of more recurring revenues in Installed Base, that would be great.

我認為剛剛提出並回答了最重要的問題，所以謝謝。我想問您有關 EUV 安裝基礎管理的問題，彼得，如果您想與我們分享一下您認為今年 EUV 安裝基礎的收入可能是多少？以及您如何看待未來 5 年的增長斜率，諸如此類。因此，我們對 Installed Base 中更多經常性收入的組合變化有一種感覺，那將是很棒的。

Yes. So on the more recurring side, I think what we've said in the past is that the way to model that for EUV is to take the ASP of a tool and take about 6% of that. And that's when the tool is up and running at it's envisaged capacity, then you would have 6% of that ASP as the recurring revenue for service and maintenance for that tool.

是的。因此，在更反復出現的方面，我認為我們過去所說的是，為 EUV 建模的方法是採用工具的 ASP 並佔其中的 6% 左右。當該工具啟動並以其設想的容量運行時，您將獲得該 ASP 的 6% 作為該工具的服務和維護的經常性收入。

So that excludes upgrades, but just for the regular sort of a maintenance. 6% of the ASP is what you would see there. So again, the assumption, the tool needs to be up and running at the envisaged capacity, and it should be out of warranty. As long as the tool is in warranty, the number is a bit lower. So that's really the way to model it.

因此，這不包括升級，但僅用於常規維護。 6% 的 ASP 就是您在那裡看到的。因此，再次假設，該工具需要以設想的容量啟動並運行，並且應該超出保修範圍。只要工具在保修期內，數量就會低一些。所以這就是建模它的真正方法。

As it comes to upgrades, that's a little bit more difficult to do, right? Because upgrades is lumpy, upgrades is dependent on what the customer wants in terms of productivity gains, what they want to make available to us in terms of the machine time. So that's a little bit harder to predict. But at least, on the regular service and maintenance side, this is the way to model the 6% of the ASP once the tool is up and running and out of warranty.

在升級方面，這有點難，對吧？因為升級是不穩定的，所以升級取決於客戶在提高生產力方面的需求，以及他們希望在機器時間方面向我們提供什麼。所以這有點難以預測。但至少，在常規服務和維護方面，這是在工具啟動並運行且超出保修期後為 6% 的 ASP 建模的方法。

All right. Thank you. Before we sign off, I'd like to remind you that our Investor Day will be September 29, 2021. The event is currently planned to be held in London. We moved the date from June and hope we can have a face-to-face meeting at the time, but of course, this will depend on the progress against the virus.

好的。謝謝你。在我們簽字之前，我想提醒您，我們的投資者日將於 2021 年 9 月 29 日舉行。該活動目前計劃在倫敦舉行。我們將日期從 6 月移開，希望屆時能夠進行面對面的會議，但當然，這將取決於抗擊病毒的進展。

More details will follow in due time, and we do hope you'll be able to join us. Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

更多細節將在適當的時候發布，我們希望您能夠加入我們。現在我代表 ASML，感謝大家今天加入我們。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝你。

Thank you. This concludes the ASML 2021 First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。 ASML 2021 年第一季度財務業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。