艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2021 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on October 20, 2021. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 2021 年 10 月 20 日舉行的 ASML 2021 第三季度財務業績電話會議。（操作員說明）我現在想將電話轉給 Skip Miller 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2021 Third Quarter Results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com.

謝謝你，接線員。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是 ASML 的首席執行官 Peter Wennink；和我們的首席財務官 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 的 2021 年第三季度業績。此電話的長度為 60 分鐘，問題將按照收到的順序進行處理。該電話也通過互聯網在 asml.com 上進行直播。

A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call. Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

本次電話會議結束後不久，我們的網站上將提供管理層的開幕致辭和電話會議的重播。在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理層在本次電話會議期間發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and the presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。對於風險因素的討論，我鼓勵您查看今天的新聞稿中包含的安全港聲明以及我們網站 asml.com 上的演示文稿以及 ASML 的 20-F 表格年度報告和提交給證券公司的其他文件和交易委員會。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 進行簡要介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our Q3 2021 results conference call. I hope all of you and your families are still healthy and safe. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the third quarter as well as provide our view on the coming quarters. Roger will start with a review of our Q3 2021 financial performance with other comments on our short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook.

謝謝你，跳過。歡迎大家，感謝您加入我們的 2021 年第三季度業績電話會議。我希望你們所有人和你們的家人仍然健康平安。在我們開始問答環節之前，羅杰和我想對第三季度進行概述和一些評論，並提供我們對未來幾個季度的看法。羅傑將首先回顧我們 2021 年第三季度的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表其他評論。我將完成介紹，並對當前的商業環境和我們未來的商業前景發表一些額外的評論。

Roger, if you will.

羅傑，如果你願意的話。

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the third quarter financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the fourth quarter of 2021. We had a record quarter on a number of fronts, including total revenue, EUV system revenue and net income. Net sales came in within guidance at EUR 5.2 billion. We shipped 13 EUV systems and recognized EUR 2.2 billion revenue from 15 systems this quarter.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第三季度的財務業績，然後為 2021 年第四季度提供指導。我們在多個方面都創下了創紀錄的季度，包括總收入、EUV 系統收入和淨收入。淨銷售額為 52 億歐元，在指導範圍內。本季度我們出貨了 13 個 EUV 系統，並從 15 個系統確認了 22 億歐元的收入。

Net system sales of EUR 4.1 billion was again more weighted towards Logic at 61%, with the remaining 39% from Memory. The continued strength in Logic drives both DPV and EUV revenue. The memory business is mainly driven by DRAM. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.1 billion, above guidance due to increased upgrades and service business.

41 億歐元的淨系統銷售額再次以 61% 的比例更多地來自邏輯，其餘 39% 來自內存。 Logic 的持續強勢推動了 DPV 和 EUV 的收入。內存業務主要由DRAM驅動。由於升級和服務業務的增加，本季度安裝基礎管理的銷售額為 11 億歐元，高於預期。

Gross margin for the quarter was 51.7% and was within guidance. On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 609 million, which was below our guidance due to several one-off effects in the quarter. SG&A expenses of EUR 183 million was basically at guidance. Net income in Q3 was EUR 1.7 billion, representing 33.2% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 4.27.

本季度毛利率為 51.7%，在指導範圍內。在運營費用方面，研發費用為 6.09 億歐元，由於本季度的幾次一次性效應，低於我們的預期。 1.83 億歐元的 SG&A 費用基本處於指導水平。第三季度的淨收入為 17 億歐元，占淨銷售額的 33.2%，每股收益為 4.27 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 4.5 billion. Moving to the order book. Q3 net system bookings came in at EUR 6.2 billion, including EUR 2.9 billion for EUV systems. Order intake was largely driven by Logic with 84% of the bookings, both from DPV and EUV, with Memory accounting for the remaining 16%.

轉向資產負債表。我們在第三季度末的現金、現金等價物和短期投資達到 45 億歐元。轉到訂單簿。第三季度淨系統預訂額為 62 億歐元，其中 EUV 系統為 29 億歐元。訂單量主要由 Logic 推動，其中 84% 的訂單來自 DPV 和 EUV，而 Memory 佔剩餘的 16%。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the fourth quarter of 2021. We expect Q4 total net sales to be between EUR 4.9 billion and EUR 5.2 billion. There are some items to note that are expected to delay revenue from Q4 2021 into Q1 2022. In the process of increasing capacity, we experienced some issues regarding material shortage in our supply chain. In addition, we experienced issues in the start-up of our new logistics center.

有了這個，我想轉向我們對 2021 年第四季度的預期。我們預計第四季度的總淨銷售額將在 49 億歐元至 52 億歐元之間。有一些需要注意的事項預計會將收入從 2021 年第四季度推遲到 2022 年第一季度。在增加產能的過程中，我們遇到了一些供應鏈材料短缺的問題。此外，我們在新物流中心的啟動過程中遇到了問題。

These 2 issues have largely been addressed for this year's output, but resulted in a late start on the assembly of a number of systems. In this high demand environment, our customers are requesting fast shipments or no factory acceptance test in order to bring systems into production as quickly as possible. While the impact on the third quarter was relatively small, the late starts combined with the fast shipments are expected to have an impact on the revenue to be recognized in the fourth quarter, which is included in our guidance.

這兩個問題在今年的產出中已基本得到解決，但導致許多系統的組裝起步較晚。在這種高需求環境中，我們的客戶要求快速發貨或不進行工廠驗收測試，以便盡快將系統投入生產。雖然對第三季度的影響相對較小，但預計晚開工加上快速出貨將對第四季度確認的收入產生影響，這已包含在我們的指導中。

We're still on track to achieve revenue growth approaching 35% for the full year. We expect our Q4 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 1.1 billion. Gross margin for Q4 is expected to be between 51% and 52%, with an expected gross margin of around 52% for the full year. The expected R&D expenses for Q4 are around EUR 670 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at around EUR 195 million. Our estimated 2021 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be around 15%.

我們仍有望實現全年收入增長接近 35%。我們預計第四季度安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 11 億歐元。第四季度毛利率預計在 51% 至 52% 之間，全年毛利率預計在 52% 左右。第四季度的預計研發費用約為 6.7 億歐元，SG&A 預計約為 1.95 億歐元。我們估計 2021 年的年化有效稅率預計在 15% 左右。

The interim dividend for 2021 will be EUR 1.80 per ordinary share. The ex-dividend date as well as the fixing date for the euro-U.S. dollar conversion will be November 2, 2021, and the record date will be November 3, 2021. The dividend will be made payable on November 12, 2021. In Q3, 2021 ASML purchased 3.6 million shares for a total amount of around EUR 2.4 billion under the current and previous program.

2021 年的中期股息為每股普通股 1.80 歐元。歐元-美國的除息日和定價日美元兌換為 2021 年 11 月 2 日，登記日為 2021 年 11 月 3 日。股息將於 2021 年 11 月 12 日支付。2021 年第三季度，ASML 購買了 360 萬股，總金額約為 24 億歐元在當前和以前的計劃下。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

有了這個，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, we had a record quarter on both sales and profitability. We're seeing continued strong demand from our customers across all market segments from both advanced and mature nodes, driving demand across our entire product portfolio. We had a total backlog of EUR 19.6 billion, including EUV of EUR 11.6 billion, which is a reflection of the very healthy market environment we're in today and fully covers the planned EUV output for 2022 and the beginning of 2023.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的那樣，我們在銷售額和盈利能力方面都創下了創紀錄的季度。我們看到來自先進和成熟節點的所有細分市場的客戶持續強勁的需求，推動了我們整個產品組合的需求。我們總共積壓了 196 億歐元，其中 EUV 為 116 億歐元，這反映了我們今天所處的非常健康的市場環境，並完全涵蓋了 2022 年和 2023 年初的 EUV 計劃產量。

While it is a bit too early to provide specific guidance for 2022, we expect the end market trends we have highlighted throughout 2021 to continue into next year. These end market trends are driving strong demand across all market segments and across our entire technology portfolio. Therefore, we continue to increase our capacity for all of our products to meet customer capacity and technology requirements.

雖然現在為 2022 年提供具體指導還為時過早，但我們預計我們在整個 2021 年強調的終端市場趨勢將持續到明年。這些終端市場趨勢正在推動所有細分市場和我們整個技術組合的強勁需求。因此，我們將繼續提高我們所有產品的產能，以滿足客戶的產能和技術要求。

In Logic, strong end-market demand continues as part of the ongoing digital transformation. The [browsing] application space with distributed computing across the IoT landscape, not only drives the demand for leading-edge nodes but also creates significant demand for mature nodes as an integral part of the growing digital infrastructure. We expect continued growth in our Logic business as customer demand remains strong for both advanced and mature nodes.

在 Logic，強勁的終端市場需求繼續作為正在進行的數字化轉型的一部分。在物聯網領域具有分佈式計算的 [瀏覽] 應用程序空間不僅推動了對前沿節點的需求，而且還創造了對成熟節點作為不斷增長的數字基礎設施不可或缺的一部分的巨大需求。我們預計我們的邏輯業務將繼續增長，因為客戶對先進和成熟節點的需求仍然強勁。

In Memory, we also expect to see continued growth of our business next year. Strong end market demand for servers and smartphones is the primary driver for Memory demand next year with some uncertainty on the demand picture for PCs. Little tool utilization levels remain very high and customers see demand bit growth in 2022 in the mid- to high-teens percentage for DRAM and around 30% for NAND. To meet demand for this expected bit growth, customers will need to add capacity as well as continue to make node migrations. As customers migrate to more advanced nodes, we also expect to see an increase in EUV demand for memory.

在內存方面，我們還預計明年我們的業務將繼續增長。終端市場對服務器和智能手機的強勁需求是明年內存需求的主要驅動力，PC 的需求前景存在一些不確定性。小工具利用率水平仍然很高，客戶認為 2022 年 DRAM 的需求位增長將達到 10% 左右，NAND 約為 30%。為了滿足這種預期的比特增長需求，客戶將需要增加容量並繼續進行節點遷移。隨著客戶遷移到更高級的節點，我們還預計 EUV 對內存的需求會增加。

For our installed base business, we see an opportunity for service growth next year as we continue to expand our installed base of our entire product portfolio as well as the increased contribution of EUV service as this technology ramps in volume production. Driven by the expected continued shortage of semiconductor components, we also see an opportunity to grow our upgrade revenue further. This will depend, however, on our customers' willingness to take systems down to perform these upgrades amidst the strong demand cycle.

對於我們的安裝基礎業務，我們看到了明年服務增長的機會，因為我們將繼續擴大我們整個產品組合的安裝基礎，以及隨著該技術量產的增加，EUV 服務的貢獻增加。在半導體組件預期持續短缺的推動下，我們也看到了進一步增加升級收入的機會。然而，這將取決於我們的客戶是否願意在強勁的需求週期中關閉系統以執行這些升級。

To meet the strong demand across our entire product portfolio, we, first of all, are driving down our manufacturing cycle times and working with our supply chain to increase our output capability for EUV as well as DPV. As communicated during our Investor Day, we expect to increase unit output for DPV by approximately 1.5x and EUV over 2x by 2025, primarily through manufacturing capacity additions in our supply chain. At the same time, we are shipping higher productivity machines, which when taken into account with our higher unit output capacity plan, we expect an increase in effective wafer capacity for DPV of approximately 2x and for EUV over 3x by 2025.

為了滿足我們整個產品組合的強勁需求，首先，我們正在縮短製造週期，並與我們的供應鏈合作，以提高我們對 EUV 和 DPV 的輸出能力。正如我們在投資者日期間所傳達的，我們預計到 2025 年，DPV 的單位產量將增加約 1.5 倍，EUV 的單位產量將增加 2 倍以上，主要是通過我們供應鏈中的製造能力增加。與此同時，我們正在運送更高生產率的機器，當考慮到我們更高的單位輸出產能計劃時，我們預計到 2025 年，DPV 的有效晶圓產能將增加約 2 倍，EUV 的有效晶圓產能將增加 3 倍以上。

The actions in our supply chain to increase output at different time horizons are to materialize, but we expect to see an impact of these actions starting this year and extending into next year. For EUV, we're still planning for a capacity of around 55 systems next year. These will all be 3200D systems, which deliver a 15% to 20% higher productivity over the [3300C] systems.

我們供應鏈中在不同時間範圍內增加產量的行動將成為現實，但我們預計這些行動的影響將從今年開始並延續到明年。對於 EUV，我們仍計劃在明年實現大約 55 個系統的容量。這些都將是 3200D 系統，其生產率比 [3300C] 系統高 15% 到 20%。

For DPV, as mentioned last quarter, we are utilizing our safety stock this year to significantly increase DPV output. So we'll not have this buffer inventory going into next year, and will, therefore, need to rely on building additional capacity, as just mentioned. We are actively working with our supply chain partners to increase our capacity next year, and the final output and mix will depend on our supply chain progress although we currently believe we should be able to reach our 2021 shipment output.

對於 DPV，如上個季度所述，我們今年將利用我們的安全庫存來顯著增加 DPV 輸出。因此，我們不會將這種緩衝庫存存入明年，因此，我們需要依賴於建立額外的產能，正如剛才提到的那樣。我們正在積極與供應鏈合作夥伴合作，以增加明年的產能，最終產量和組合將取決於我們的供應鏈進展，儘管我們目前認為我們應該能夠達到 2021 年的出貨量。

In summary, chip demand is very strong, and we are working to maximize output to meet customer demand. The secular growth trends as part of the digital transformation to a more connected world are fueling future demand across all market segments at both the advanced and the mature nodes, and we expect another year of healthy growth in 2022.

綜上所述，芯片需求非常旺盛，我們正在努力最大化產量以滿足客戶需求。作為向更互聯世界的數字化轉型的一部分，長期增長趨勢正在推動所有細分市場在先進和成熟節點的未來需求，我們預計 2022 年將迎來又一年的健康增長。

Looking beyond next year, I'd like to provide a quick summary of our Investor Day that we held last month where we provided a longer-term view of our business and growth opportunities. The global mega-trends in the electronics industry supported by a highly profitable and innovative ecosystem are expected to continue to fuel growth across the semiconductor markets. Growth in semiconductor end-markets and increasing lithography intensity are driving demand for our products and services.

展望明年，我想簡要總結一下我們上個月舉行的投資者日，我們提供了對我們業務和增長機會的長期看法。在高利潤和創新生態系統的支持下，電子行業的全球大趨勢預計將繼續推動整個半導體市場的增長。半導體終端市場的增長和光刻強度的提高正在推動對我們產品和服務的需求。

ASML's comprehensive product portfolio is aligned to our customers' road maps, delivering cost-effective solutions in support of all applications from leading edge to mature nodes. And based on different market scenarios, we have an opportunity to reach an annual revenue in 2025 between approximately EUR 24 billion in a low market scenario and EUR 30 billion in high market scenario with a gross margin in 2025 between approximately 54% and 56%. We see significant growth opportunities beyond 2025.

ASML 全面的產品組合與我們客戶的路線圖保持一致，提供具有成本效益的解決方案，以支持從前沿到成熟節點的所有應用程序。根據不同的市場情景，我們有機會在 2025 年實現年收入在低市場情景約 240 億歐元和高市場情景 300 億歐元之間，2025 年毛利率在約 54% 至 56% 之間。我們看到了 2025 年以後的重大增長機會。

Using third-party research and applying our own market and customer intelligence, we expect our systems and installed base business to provide a comfortable annual revenue growth rate of around 11% for the period 2020, 2030. We are continuously improving our performance on our ESG sustainability KPIs and are upgrading our ESG sustainability strategy to accelerate progress.

使用第三方研究並應用我們自己的市場和客戶情報，我們預計我們的系統和已安裝的基礎業務將在 2020 年和 2030 年期間提供約 11% 的舒適年收入增長率。我們正在不斷提高我們在 ESG 方面的表現可持續發展關鍵績效指標，並正在升級我們的 ESG 可持續發展戰略以加快進展。

Our industry can contribute significantly to cut global emissions by 15% in 2030. Our ESG sustainability strategy is focused on developing lithography technology to continue to produce microchips that are 3x more energy efficient every 2 years, helping our customers and suppliers to minimize materials and energy required to produce advanced microchips and driving the road map towards zero waste by 2030 and net zero value chain emissions by 2040.

我們的行業可以為 2030 年將全球排放量減少 15% 做出重大貢獻。我們的 ESG 可持續發展戰略專注於開發光刻技術，以繼續生產每 2 年能效提高 3 倍的微芯片，幫助我們的客戶和供應商最大限度地減少材料和能源需要生產先進的微芯片，並推動到 2030 年實現零浪費和到 2040 年實現價值鏈淨零排放的路線圖。

Our continued investments in technology leadership have created significant shareholder value. As outlined in our capital allocation strategy, we (inaudible) expect to continue to return significant amounts of cash to our shareholders through a combination of growing dividends and share buybacks.

我們對技術領先地位的持續投資為股東創造了巨大的價值。正如我們的資本分配戰略中所述，我們（聽不清）預計將通過不斷增長的股息和股票回購相結合，繼續向股東返還大量現金。

And in summary, we have increased and -- we have increased and strong confidence in our long-term growth opportunities, while we deliver significant value to all our stakeholders.

總而言之，我們已經增加並且 - 我們對我們的長期增長機會充滿信心，同時我們為所有利益相關者提供了重要的價值。

With that, we would be happy to take your questions.

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

謝謝你，羅杰和彼得。接線員將立即指導您問答環節的協議。 （操作員說明）現在操作員，我們可以給您最後的說明，然後是第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Mehdi at SIG.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi。

Regarding the -- some of the reasons for revenue shortfall that you highlighted, how should I think about just the overall 2021 revenue if there was no material shortage, if you didn't have to deal with capacity expansion and if you didn't have to deal with revenue recognition. If you were to eliminate all of those 3 factors, how would the 2021 revenue would look like? And I have a follow-up.

關於你強調的收入不足的一些原因，如果沒有實質性短缺，如果你不必處理產能擴張，如果你沒有，我應該如何考慮 2021 年的整體收入處理收入確認。如果你要消除所有這三個因素，2021 年的收入會是什麼樣子？我有一個後續行動。

I think, Mehdi, the way to look at that is we still in the upper limit, we still guide the same number that we guided before. But you would have seen that, for instance, on the Installed Base business. We guide a number that is approximately EUR 300 million higher than the number that we guided last time. So that gives you a bit of an indication that, that is the number that is somehow -- is shifting, if you like, from this year into Q1 of next year. That's the number to look at.

我認為，Mehdi，看待的方式是我們仍然處於上限，我們仍然引導我們之前引導的相同數量。但是，例如，您會在 Installed Base 業務中看到這一點。我們指導的數字比我們上次指導的數字高出約 3 億歐元。所以這給了你一點跡象，那就是這個數字正在以某種方式 - 如果你願意的話，正在從今年轉移到明年的第一季度。這是要查看的數字。

Okay. Great. And then a quick second follow-up. The EUR 19 billion of backlog that you recorded end of Q3 of '21. Could that be the near-term peak, especially in the context of your 2025 revenue target at the low end starting with [24%]. So -- and we're like 4 years away. So I would think that EUR 19 billion of backlog could be a near-term peak. I'm just trying to better understand how we would go from here. Any color would be great.

好的。偉大的。然後是快速的第二次跟進。您在 21 年第三季度末記錄的 190 億歐元的積壓訂單。這可能是近期的峰值嗎，尤其是在您的 2025 年收入目標從 [24%] 開始的低端的背景下。所以——我們還有 4 年的時間。因此，我認為 190 億歐元的積壓可能是近期的峰值。我只是想更好地了解我們將如何從這裡開始。任何顏色都會很棒。

Yes, Mehdi, good question. But I think -- like I said in my introductory comments, in a low market we will be at the EUR 24 billion and in high market would be at EUR 30 billion. So that is basically what we are looking at. And to take a backlog any moment in time is really a function of our shipment pattern because we are shipping out of that backlog, but also the lumpiness with which our customers are going to give us orders. So I wouldn't read too much into the EUR 19.6 billion other than that's a big number. And that big number is actually because there is a shortage and especially in leading-edge equipment and other types of equipment.

是的，邁赫迪，好問題。但我認為——就像我在介紹性評論中所說的那樣，在低端市場我們將達到 240 億歐元，在高端市場將達到 300 億歐元。所以這基本上就是我們正在研究的內容。並且隨時處理積壓訂單實際上是我們發貨模式的一個功能，因為我們正在從該訂單中發貨，而且我們的客戶將給我們訂單的情況也是如此。所以我不會過多解讀 196 億歐元，除非這是一個很大的數字。而這個大數字實際上是因為短缺，特別是在尖端設備和其他類型的設備方面。

So yes, customers are ordering. 2022 for EUV is covered. I mean, we are booking into 2023. So I think that -- it is more a function of the lumpiness of the order intake for our customers that have expansion plans, which between now and 2025 can be quite significant, also taking into account the announcement of the new fabs, the drive of technological sovereignty, the geopolitical situation.

所以是的，客戶正在訂購。涵蓋 EUV 的 2022 年。我的意思是，我們預訂到 2023 年。所以我認為，這更多是因為我們的客戶有擴張計劃的訂單數量不均，從現在到 2025 年，這可能非常重要，同時考慮到新晶圓廠的宣布、技術主權的驅動、地緣政治局勢。

So there's many, many elements there that will drive our order intake. So I would not think of this as a peak. I would just look at this as a point towards a significantly higher sales number by 2025.

所以那裡有很多很多因素會推動我們的訂單接收。所以我不會認為這是一個高峰。我只是將其視為到 2025 年銷售數字顯著提高的一個點。

And our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer at Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

I'm just kind of curious, when you look at the bookings number, the Memory bookings kind of decelerated. Is that mainly a timing issue? Is there something more going on there? And how does that kind of influence your view on 2022?

我只是有點好奇，當您查看預訂數量時，記憶預訂數量有所減少。這主要是時間問題嗎？那裡有更多的事情發生嗎？這種情況如何影響您對 2022 年的看法？

I know you said that Memory is still expected to be strong, but anything you can give us from a color perspective on the Q3 bookings would be great.

我知道你說記憶力仍然會很強大，但是從第三季度預訂的色彩角度來看，你能給我們的任何東西都會很棒。

Yes, I think it's basically a timing issue. I mean it's the -- we had stronger Memory bookings in Q2. Now we have stronger Logic bookings in Q3. And let's be honest, I mean, we have over EUR 6 billion of bookings worldwide. Our sales in Q3 were EUR 4 billion, so I think the booking number is pretty good. So yes, I think for 2022 on the Memory, I said it in my introductory comments, we feel good about 2022 because our customers feel good about 2022.

是的，我認為這基本上是一個時間問題。我的意思是——我們在第二季度有更強的記憶預訂。現在我們在第三季度有更強勁的 Logic 預訂。老實說，我的意思是，我們在全球的預訂量超過 60 億歐元。我們在第三季度的銷售額為 40 億歐元，所以我認為預訂量相當不錯。所以是的，我認為對於 2022 年的記憶，我在介紹性評論中說過，我們對 2022 年感覺良好，因為我們的客戶對 2022 年感覺良好。

And yes, there's been some concern about DRAM weakness. Our customers feel that is not structural. There's all kind of reasons why in certain segments, there is a temporary weakness, but they definitely see the need to add capacity, but also to do the node migrations. And that means that we see continued growth next year. So we're positive. Don't ask us to have a crystal ball on Memory and DRAM pricing, but what we do is that we listen very carefully to our customers and our customers' expansion plans and their optimism and their confidence that they need to expand. And so this is why we are optimistic also for growth next year.

是的，有人擔心 DRAM 的弱點。我們的客戶認為這不是結構性的。在某些細分市場中存在暫時性弱點的原因有很多，但他們肯定看到需要增加容量，也需要進行節點遷移。這意味著我們看到明年將繼續增長。所以我們是積極的。不要要求我們對內存和 DRAM 定價有一個水晶球，但我們所做的是我們非常仔細地傾聽我們的客戶和客戶的擴張計劃以及他們的樂觀和他們需要擴張的信心。這就是為什麼我們也對明年的增長持樂觀態度。

That's helpful. And then, Peter, as you know, this industry either gives you high-class problems or low-class problems. And right now, there's a lot of high-class problems out there. I'm kind of curious -- can you help me better understand around your capacity expansion. To what extent is it just the need to add fixed cost that you might have to carry through the inevitable cyclical correction when it comes? And to what extent is this variable cost? And I'd be curious, both on kind of the 2022 kind of capacity you're thinking about, but also importantly, the 2025 target as you talk about DPV and EUV production being up 1.5x and more than 2x.

這很有幫助。然後，彼得，如你所知，這個行業要么給你高級問題，要么給你低級問題。現在，那裡有很多高級問題。我有點好奇——你能幫我更好地了解你的產能擴張嗎？在多大程度上只是需要增加固定成本，當它到來時你可能不得不進行不可避免的周期性調整？這種可變成本在多大程度上？我很好奇，無論是關於你正在考慮的 2022 年產能，而且重要的是，當你談到 DPV 和 EUV 產量增長 1.5 倍和超過 2 倍時，2025 年的目標。

Yes. I also said in my statement that these capacity additions are largely focused on adding capacity in the supply chain. Now we are adding people. That's also clear. I think we hired this year with some attrition, but we probably hired between 6,000 and 7,000 people. So we're probably going to add about 4,500 to 5,000 people. That's, of course, fixed cost. But that's in R&D. That's not only in manufacturing capacity. It's in service, which, of course, is -- has to do with the higher business level.

是的。我還在聲明中表示，這些產能增加主要集中在增加供應鏈的產能上。現在我們正在添加人員。這也很清楚。我認為我們今年僱用了一些人員，但我們可能僱用了 6,000 到 7,000 人。所以我們可能會增加大約 4,500 到 5,000 人。當然，這是固定成本。但那是在研發中。這不僅在於製造能力。它在服務中，當然，這與更高的業務水平有關。

So I think it is larger -- for us, it's largely people. It's some CapEx, but not out of the ordinary. It's what we have planned, started to plan this even last year and the year before. So I don't think that's the major issue. It's really in the supply chain if you -- and you talked about the inevitable correction. Yes. I mean, we have corrections. We have always seen corrections in our industry. I'm not going to say that they're not there. But we have to look at some of the trends that we're also seeing.

所以我認為它更大——對我們來說，主要是人。這是一些資本支出，但並不與眾不同。這是我們計劃的，甚至在去年和前一年就開始計劃了。所以我認為這不是主要問題。如果您談到了不可避免的修正，那麼它確實在供應鏈中。是的。我的意思是，我們有更正。我們總是看到我們的行業出現調整。我不會說他們不在那裡。但我們必須看看我們也看到的一些趨勢。

And when we look at the announcement of the build-out of new capacity. It is also very much driven by, I would say, the geopolitical situation and governments looking at technological sovereignty giving quite significant incentives. Just refer to the to the U.S. chip sector, EUR 52 billion, of which EUR 40 billion is for basically to support expansion of capacity. That's going to happen over the next couple of years. It will take 2 to 3 years.

當我們看到新產能擴建的公告時。我想說的是，地緣政治形勢和政府對技術主權的看法也非常重要，這在很大程度上是由給予相當大的激勵。僅參考美國芯片行業，520億歐元，其中400億歐元基本用於支持產能擴張。這將在未來幾年內發生。這將需要2到3年。

So (inaudible) any fluctuations in the end demand, that's going to happen. So I think and that's what we believe that adding that capacity is absolutely necessary because we do believe we see higher levels of equipment demand over the next couple of years. So when this inevitable correction will come, I don't think it's likely to come anywhere soon.

所以（聽不清）最終需求的任何波動都會發生。所以我認為這就是我們認為增加產能是絕對必要的，因為我們確實相信未來幾年我們會看到更高水平的設備需求。因此，當這種不可避免的修正到來時，我認為它不會很快到來。

Our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse at Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question, Peter, you all have pretty much unprecedented visibility sitting here today. And obviously, you've talked about adding 50% capacity on the DUV side, and that doesn't include any of the productivity benefits of the newer tools coming online. But at the same time, end demand is robust, both leading and lagging. So curious, when do you think things will ease up for you? Because it certainly sounds like it may not happen in 2022, could be pushed to 2023.

我想第一個問題，彼得，你們今天坐在這裡的知名度幾乎是前所未有的。顯然，您已經談到在 DUV 方面增加 50% 的容量，這不包括新工具上線的任何生產力優勢。但與此同時，終端需求強勁，領先和落後。很好奇，你認為事情什麼時候會緩和下來？因為這聽起來肯定不會在 2022 年發生，可能會推遲到 2023 年。

Yes. That's a good comment, C.J. I mean if you think about how we add capacity, it's basically 3 ways. One is to work on cycle time and on efficiencies in your production manufacturing space. That's what we're all doing, us and our suppliers are doing that. And I think that gives us a result that we can actually ship more now. And I would say, the first half of next year.

是的。這是一個很好的評論，C.J。我的意思是，如果你考慮我們如何增加容量，基本上是 3 種方式。一是在生產製造空間中處理週期時間和效率。這就是我們都在做的事情，我們和我們的供應商都在做這件事。我認為這給了我們一個結果，我們現在實際上可以出貨更多。我會說，明年上半年。

The second is you have to buy equipment and you have to hire people. It has a longer lead time. It has a lead of about 12 to 18 months before you really get output. And then there's the third layer, which basically if you cannot put more people and more machines into the square footage that you have, you need to build, which is actually 2 to 3 years, yes? And I think this is where we are today. I think given what I said on the answer to the previous question, what I expect is that we will see billing activity starting in the supply chain because I think we need to add more capacity over the next 2 to 3 years because the numbers that you quoted were for 2025, yes?

第二個是你必須購買設備，你必須僱用人員。它有更長的交貨時間。在您真正獲得產出之前，它有大約 12 到 18 個月的領先優勢。然後是第三層，基本上如果你不能把更多的人和更多的機器放在你擁有的平方英尺中，你需要建造，實際上是 2 到 3 年，是嗎？我認為這就是我們今天所處的位置。我認為，鑑於我在回答上一個問題時所說的，我預計我們將在供應鏈中看到計費活動，因為我認為我們需要在未來 2 到 3 年內增加更多容量，因為您引用的是 2025 年，是嗎？

So it's going to be a gradual increase. One, by cycle-time reduction and all the efficiencies that is at the end of the supply chain. Two, more equipment, production equipment and people, which will have its effect in 2022, 2023. And then I think you will see indeed square footage being added in '23, '24. And that's how we get to that 1.5x and 2x in terms of unit capacity increase.

所以會逐漸增加。一是通過縮短週期時間和提高供應鏈末端的所有效率。第二，更多的設備、生產設備和人員，這將在 2022 年、2023 年生效。然後我想你會看到確實在 23 年、24 年增加了平方英尺。這就是我們如何在單位容量增加方面達到 1.5 倍和 2 倍。

But then, of course, in the same time frame, we will ship more productive tools. So that, of course, will help to alleviate some of the wafer capacity shortages that we currently see. I hope that's clear.

但是，當然，在同一時間範圍內，我們將推出更多生產工具。當然，這將有助於緩解我們目前看到的一些晶圓產能短缺。我希望這很清楚。

Yes. No, that's very helpful. I guess as my follow-on question and to follow on to John's earlier question around DRAM, you highlighted very high utilization on the installed base and then a focus not only on node migration, but also the need to add capacity yet at the same time, your memory backlog and orders declined sequentially.

是的。不，這很有幫助。我想作為我的後續問題以及 John 之前關於 DRAM 的問題，您強調了已安裝基礎的非常高的利用率，然後不僅關注節點遷移，而且還需要同時增加容量，您的內存積壓和訂單依次下降。

It certainly sounds like that's a place where you could start to see positive momentum and drive even further growth into 2022. So I guess, how are you thinking about DRAM and the kind of timing of a potential inflection there for you guys?

這聽起來確實是一個你可以開始看到積極勢頭並推動進一步增長到 2022 年的地方。所以我想，你們如何看待 DRAM 以及你們那裡潛在拐點的時機？

Yes. I think again, like I said, we listen carefully to our customers. And we actually feel a significant level of confidence currently at our customers, all DRAM customers to be able to -- that they must add capacity. I mean they are talking about high- to mid-teens bit growth, but high teens close to 20% bit growth would mean that we just look at the utilization at this moment in time, which is very high.

是的。我再次想，就像我說的，我們仔細傾聽客戶的意見。事實上，我們目前對我們的客戶有很大的信心，所有 DRAM 客戶都能夠——他們必須增加容量。我的意思是他們在談論高到中位數的比特增長，但接近 20% 的比特增長的高青少年意味著我們只關注此時的利用率，這是非常高的。

We cannot support high-teens bit growth with the current installed capacity, so then they need to add capacity, yes? And I think it's -- when you think about DRAM and you think about the underlying -- because DRAM is a derivative, Memory is derivate of the Logic growth. And when you see the very strong demand for Logic, both at the leading edge and at the mature side, has -- there is an effect on Memory. There is an effect on performance memory and on storage memory.

以目前的裝機容量我們無法支持高十幾位數的增長，所以他們需要增加容量，是嗎？我認為這是——當你考慮 DRAM 並考慮底層時——因為 DRAM 是衍生品，內存是邏輯增長的衍生品。當你看到對邏輯的強烈需求時，無論是在前沿還是成熟方面，都會對內存產生影響。對性能內存和存儲內存有影響。

So looking at where we are today, the high utilization rates, let's assume if there is high-teens bit growth, we need to have capacity. So I fully understand the, let's say, positive momentum that our customers are seeing and the demand that they put on us for next year shipments.

所以看看我們今天所處的位置，高利用率，讓我們假設如果有高十位數的增長，我們需要有容量。因此，我完全理解我們的客戶所看到的積極勢頭以及他們對我們明年發貨的需求。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar of Cowen Co.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen Co. 的 Krish Sankar。

I had 2 of them, too. First one, Peter, I understand you don't want to quantify next year. But when you look at your DUV sales, which have been very strong this year, is it fair to assume 2022 DUV sales should be higher than this year. And along the same thought process, how to think about Installed Base revenues in 2022 relative to this year? And then I had a quick follow-on.

我也有兩個。第一個，彼得，我知道你不想量化明年。但是，當您查看今年非常強勁的 DUV 銷售額時，是否可以公平地假設 2022 年的 DUV 銷售額應該高於今年。沿著同樣的思路，如何看待 2022 年相對於今年的 Installed Base 收入？然後我進行了快速跟進。

I think, Roger, you can answer that.

我想，羅傑，你可以回答這個問題。

Yes, Krish, if we -- if you look at that, I think what Peter said in the introduction to this call, I think what he said is, on the one hand, of course, additional capacity is being built. On the other hand, parts buffers that have been depleted this year in order to get to output, need to be filled back. So I think that was the basis for the statement that Peter made that our expectation is that next year we should see shipments at the level of this year in terms of -- for DPV.

是的，Krish，如果我們——如果你看一下，我認為彼得在本次電話會議的介紹中所說的話，我認為他所說的一方面是，當然，正在建立額外的容量。另一方面，今年已經耗盡以輸出的零件緩衝區需要重新填滿。所以我認為這是彼得發表聲明的基礎，即我們的預期是明年我們應該看到 DPV 的出貨量達到今年的水平。

In terms of Installed Base, you've seen in the Capital Markets Day that we're looking at a 12% CAGR until 2025 installed base. So I think that is a pretty good proxy to look at the CAGR from this year into next year.

就安裝基數而言，您在資本市場日看到我們預計到 2025 年安裝基數的複合年增長率為 12%。所以我認為這是一個很好的代理來看看從今年到明年的複合年增長率。

Got it. Very helpful, Roger. And then just as a follow-up for you. You kind of highlighted an earlier question, think of the pushout as roughly EUR 300 million. Is it fair to assume it's all DPV? And is it a combo of [dry] and [FinFET] or is it all mostly immersion?

知道了。非常有幫助，羅傑。然後作為您的後續行動。你有點強調了一個較早的問題，認為推出大約為 3 億歐元。假設這都是 DPV 是否公平？它是 [dry] 和 [FinFET] 的組合，還是主要是沉浸式的？

It's a combination, and is as DPV. So the EUR 300 million that I'm talking about is DPV and it's a combination of immersion and [dry] .

這是一個組合，並且作為 DPV。所以我所說的 3 億歐元是 DPV，它是沉浸式和 [dry] 的結合。

And our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

I just want to go back on the discussion on DUV. I mean clearly, your backlog has increased significantly. I'm trying to understand it, I guess, when you look at that relative to the capacity that you have in place manufacturing-wise, has that your ability to fulfill that demand, maybe extend into the second half of next year.

我只想回到關於 DUV 的討論。我的意思很清楚，您的積壓工作顯著增加。我想，我試圖理解它，當你看到相對於你在製造方面的產能時，你是否有能力滿足這一需求，可能會延續到明年下半年。

I think last quarter, we talked about maybe being able to kind of catch up to demand in the mid part of the year.

我認為上個季度，我們談到也許能夠在年中趕上需求。

Yes, if I understand your question correct, Joe. Yes, I think in that build-up of capacity that over time, which definitely the next year, will, of course, become more visible throughout the year. So it will be more visible in the second half of the year. That's also clear. And also because what Roger said earlier, I mean, we've actually depleted our safety and buffer stocks in 2021 to be able to supply our customers with everything that they wanted.

是的，如果我理解你的問題是正確的，喬。是的，我認為隨著時間的推移，肯定會在明年，隨著時間的推移，能力的積累將在全年變得更加明顯。所以下半年會更加明顯。這也很清楚。也因為羅傑之前所說的，我的意思是，我們實際上已經在 2021 年耗盡了我們的安全和緩衝庫存，以便能夠為我們的客戶提供他們想要的一切。

But you can only do that once, and then you -- actually, if you want to actually have the same shipment pattern in '22 or at the same shipment output level as in '22 as in '21, you need to actually build that capacity, and that's what we're doing. So I think you will see that. And as I answered to a previous question, when we think about 1.5x DPV capacity, it will grow over time. So there will be more people hired in our supply chain. They will buy more machines, which they are actually doing. So this will come online as we go.

但是你只能這樣做一次，然後你 - 實際上，如果你想在 '22 中實際擁有相同的發貨模式或在 '22 和 '21 中具有相同的發貨輸出水平，你需要實際構建它容量，這就是我們正在做的事情。所以我想你會看到的。正如我對之前問題的回答，當我們考慮 1.5 倍 DPV 容量時，它會隨著時間的推移而增長。因此，我們的供應鏈中將僱用更多的人。他們將購買更多的機器，他們實際上正在這樣做。因此，這將在我們進行時上線。

So yes, the assumption in our capacity capability in the second half of 2020 was higher than in the first half, that is a realistic one.

所以是的，我們對 2020 年下半年產能能力的假設高於上半年，這是一個現實的假設。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just a quick question on the puts and takes of gross margin in this quarter. I think clearly, Installed Base Management was ahead of plan and driven by upgrades, which I think a lot of those are software related that are higher margins. Were there some offsets there from just the higher supply chain or logistics costs we should be thinking about?

好的。這很有幫助。然後只是一個關於本季度毛利率的看跌期權的快速問題。我清楚地認為，Installed Base Management 超出了計劃並受到升級的推動，我認為其中很多都是與利潤率較高的軟件相關的。我們應該考慮的更高的供應鍊或物流成本是否有一些抵消？

No, not really. I think if you look at the gross margin, I think Installed Base obviously is one element. I think clearly, also the -- on the immersion side, that was a positive in the gross margin if you compare Q3 to Q2.

不，不是。我認為，如果您查看毛利率，我認為 Installed Base 顯然是一個要素。我清楚地認為，如果您將第三季度與第二季度進行比較，那麼在沉浸式方面，這對毛利率來說也是一個積極因素。

As we said before, in this quarter, you saw a meaningful number of 2050s in there, and we said that 2050 was accretive to gross margins. So that's definitely a help. Also more 3600s in there, although a little bit of that was offset by a slightly lower ASP than what you've seen in the past quarters on the 3400s. So it's that combination that got you from the 50.9% gross margin that we had last quarter to 51.7% this time.

正如我們之前所說，在本季度，您會看到相當數量的 2050 年，我們說 2050 年會增加毛利率。所以這絕對是一個幫助。那裡還有更多的 3600，儘管其中一點被 ASP 比您在過去幾個季度看到的 3400 略低的 ASP 所抵消。因此，正是這種組合讓您從上個季度的 50.9% 毛利率上升到這次的 51.7%。

And our next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc of Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Aleksander Peterc。

I'd like to come back a little bit on service and (inaudible) options, which obviously have been very strong. You highlighted EUR 300 million additional revenue that is not on your guidance versus what you were saying 3 months ago. So if you could tell us what is exactly driving this? Is it the additional demand for upgrades that you mentioned as a driver going forward? Is that already materializing in 2021?

我想再談談服務和（聽不清）選項，這些選項顯然非常強大。您強調了 3 億歐元的額外收入，這與您 3 個月前所說的相比，不在您的指導範圍內。所以，如果你能告訴我們究竟是什麼推動了這一切？作為未來的驅動程序，您是否提到了對升級的額外需求？這是否已經在 2021 年實現？

Yes, it is a combination of both the service revenue being high and us increasingly, we talked about that extensively in the Capital Markets Day, finding models with the customer to bring more value to the customer. And in that way, boosting, if you like, the service revenue. So that's one dimension.

是的，這是服務收入高和我們越來越多的結合，我們在資本市場日廣泛討論了這一點，與客戶一起尋找模型，為客戶帶來更多價值。通過這種方式，如果您願意，可以增加服務收入。所以這是一個維度。

But secondly, also upgrade potential. I mean everyone is screaming for capacity in that environment, if customers find a way to give us some machine time or reversely, we find a way to do the upgrades without taking too much machine time, and that's what we're putting a lot of emphasis on to really make the upgrades as demanding, as little machine time as possible, then there is a lot of demand in this environment to -- for upgrades.

但其次，還有升級潛力。我的意思是，在那種環境下，每個人都在為容量大喊大叫，如果客戶想辦法給我們一些機器時間，或者反過來，我們會找到一種方法來進行升級，而不會佔用太多機器時間，這就是我們投入很多的強調真正使升級要求盡可能低，機器時間盡可能短，那麼在這種環境下對升級有很多需求。

So it's that combination that really has driven upgrades, as a matter of fact, throughout the entire year at this very high level. You might remember in Q1, we talked about a very high level of upgrades, and we said -- we talked about pull-ins and just signaling that we thought that, that would be at the detriment of upgrades that would happen in the remainder of the year. And that didn't happen. Also in the remainder of the year, upgrades were at a very, very high level because, again, we found ways with the customer to do it in a way that was not very intrusive, and therefore, giving value to the customer with the upgrades without ruining their process for too long.

因此，事實上，正是這種組合真正推動了升級，整個一年都在這個非常高的水平上。你可能還記得，在第一季度，我們談到了非常高水平的升級，我們說——我們談到了拉動，只是表明我們認為，這將不利於在剩餘的時間裡發生的升級。那一年。而那並沒有發生。同樣在今年剩下的時間裡，升級處於非常非常高的水平，因為我們再次與客戶一起找到了以一種不太乾擾的方式進行升級的方法，因此通過升級為客戶帶來了價值不會破壞他們的過程太久。

And presumably that [trend] continues into '22 as well with this trend?

並且大概這種 [趨勢] 也會隨著這種趨勢持續到 22 年？

Yes, that's true. But as Peter said, the customer continuously has to make this trade-off between, even if it's a nonintrusive way, it still is days and sometimes weeks of machine time. So they continuously have to make that trade-off. But in all likelihood, if we look at the upgrades that we also make available next year, we think the upgrade business next year should also be pretty healthy.

是的，這是真的。但正如彼得所說，客戶必須不斷地在這兩者之間進行權衡，即使它是一種非侵入性的方式，它仍然是數天甚至數週的機器時間。所以他們必須不斷地做出這種權衡。但很有可能，如果我們看看我們明年也提供的升級，我們認為明年的升級業務也應該相當健康。

Our next question comes from the line of Didier Scemama of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Didier Scemama。

Rather than me speaking on the inflections of the backlog or the near term, I just wanted to come back to the Capital Markets Day and just getting your clarification, at least helping us understand 2 points. So my first question is on 3D DRAM. I'm sure you're fully aware that all your competitors or peers, I should say, are talking about 3D DRAM mid-2025, which sort of doesn't jive well with what Martin told us at the CMD. So wanted to understand your side of the equation? And then I will come back for the second question after that.

我不想談論積壓或近期的變化，我只是想回到資本市場日並得到您的澄清，至少有助於我們理解 2 點。所以我的第一個問題是關於 3D DRAM。我相信您完全清楚，我應該說，您所有的競爭對手或同行都在談論 2025 年中期的 3D DRAM，這與 Martin 在 CMD 上告訴我們的內容不太相符。所以想了解你的等式嗎？然後我會回來回答第二個問題。

Yes. D.J., that's a good question. When we talk about these things, I always try to look at reality and the facts. And the fact of the matter is that all our customers -- our DRAM customers are engaged with us on EUV, which actually, for some of the customers that they also talk about 3D DRAM, and I'll talk about that a little bit later. I'll refer to that a little bit later.

是的。 D.J.，這是個好問題。當我們談論這些事情時，我總是嘗試著看現實和事實。事實上，我們所有的客戶——我們的 DRAM 客戶都在 EUV 上與我們接觸，實際上，對於一些客戶來說，他們也談論 3D DRAM，我稍後會談到.稍後我會提到這一點。

Actually see ramping up EUV in '23, '24, which is dimensional scaling. On top of that, we have very significant discussions with DRAM customers on High-NA, which is the next level of dimensional scaling, and which actually, they're asking for introduction at the same timing as we have Logic [INA].

實際上，在 23 和 24 年看到 EUV 的增加，這是尺寸縮放。最重要的是，我們與 DRAM 客戶就 High-NA 進行了非常重要的討論，這是維度縮放的下一個級別，實際上，他們要求在我們擁有 Logic [INA] 的同時引入。

So that dimensional scaling is what they're doing. And so I can only refer to what a CTO of one of our largest DRAM customers said, the DRAM is talked about as a concept. That's actually what he said, it is written. And it's a concept. It's not enough to say, yes, I see it enough to make it reality. That's how they think about this today. It's been in research for a long time. You might remember cross-point DRAM, that's a 3D structure. It's been around, and it's been part of research and their thought process for a long while, but it's not there.

所以維度縮放就是他們正在做的事情。所以我只能參考我們最大的 DRAM 客戶之一的 CTO 所說的，DRAM 是作為一個概念來談論的。原來是他說的，寫的。這是一個概念。說，是的，我看到它足以使它成為現實是不夠的。這就是他們今天的想法。它已經研究了很長時間。您可能還記得交叉點 DRAM，它是一種 3D 結構。它已經存在了，很長一段時間以來它一直是研究和他們思考過程的一部分，但它不存在。

So what is there is dimensional scaling, where they engage with us quite significantly on High-NA, which is the second half of this decade. That's reality. Now having said, you referred to some of our peers and I've also seen the Capital Markets presentations. It's my personal question is that it's a bit overhyped by our semiconductor equipment peers, which if I were them, I would probably do the same thing but it does not jive with what our customers are telling us.

那麼什麼是維度縮放，他們在 High-NA 上與我們進行了非常重要的互動，這是本十年的下半葉。這就是現實。話雖如此，你提到了我們的一些同行，我也看過資本市場的演講。我個人的問題是，我們的半導體設備同行有點誇大其詞，如果我是他們，我可能會做同樣的事情，但它與我們的客戶告訴我們的內容不符。

(inaudible) Second question, going back to the CMD as well and this slide from Martin. There's been a lot of questions and debate with the investor community as to the 2-nanometer node and why they would be a flat UV layer [count]. I think we all well understand the drop at 1.5 due to High-NA, but maybe less so the 2-nanometer flat UV layer count. And some are worried that this is due to gate-all-around. So can you just clarify that here, you're talking about node shrink with no UV layer count increase? Or is it, in fact, no shrink or no shrink from 3 to 2, just a sort of marketing name for gate-all-around.

（聽不清）第二個問題，同樣回到 CMD 和 Martin 的這張幻燈片。關於 2 納米節點以及為什麼它們會是平坦的 UV 層 [count]，投資者社區存在很多問題和爭論。我想我們都很好理解由於高 NA 導致的 1.5 下降，但 2 納米平面 UV 層數可能更少。有些人擔心這是由於門禁。那麼您能否在這裡澄清一下，您是在談論節點縮小而不增加 UV 層數？或者實際上是3到2不縮水還是不縮水，只是門禁的一種營銷名稱。

Yes. I think, D.J., if you talk about gate-all-around, first off, I think it's important to note that fundamentally, gate-all-around or FinFET doesn't drive a difference in litho intensity. So there is no fundamental shift in litho intensity if you move from one architecture, if you like, to the other.

是的。我認為，D.J.，如果您談論全環柵極，首先，我認為重要的是要注意，從根本上說，全環柵極或 FinFET 不會驅動光刻強度的差異。因此，如果您從一種架構（如果您願意）轉移到另一種架構，那麼光刻強度不會發生根本性的轉變。

But it is the case that customers look at a new node and say, is this a node where I'm going to combine device architecture innovation with significant shrink. And there, you see -- and if you just look at the history, if you look at, for instance, FinFET, you saw that some customers decided to -- when they introduced the new device architecture to be very conservative on shrink, some others didn't. And actually combines device architecture with shrink. So we've been conservative in our projection there.

但是，客戶看到一個新節點並說，這是一個我要結合設備架構創新和顯著縮小的節點的情況。在那裡，你看——如果你只看歷史，如果你看一下，例如 FinFET，你會看到一些客戶決定——當他們引入新的設備架構時，他們在收縮方面非常保守，一些其他人沒有。並且實際上將設備架構與收縮相結合。所以我們在那裡的預測是保守的。

So we know there is one large customer at this node that you're referring to is indeed going to gate-all-around. You also know that another customer is actually doing that at a node before that. And therefore, the assumption that, that might -- at that particular note, leads to a conservative estimate in terms of layer count. That's the background of that slide in that number.

所以我們知道在這個節點上有一個大客戶，你所指的確實是全方位的。您還知道另一個客戶實際上是在此之前的一個節點上這樣做的。因此，假設，在那個特定的註釋中，這可能會導致對層數的保守估計。這就是那個數字中那張幻燈片的背景。

And our next question comes from the line of Stephane at ODDO BHF.

我們的下一個問題來自 ODDO BHF 的 Stephane。

Actually, I wanted to come back on your forecast for 55 EUV tools for next year. I understand it's a goal for production. But given the difficult you are witnessing in the supply chain like everyone else, actually. How confident are you that you will be able to transform this production goal into revenue next year?

實際上，我想回到你對明年 55 台 EUV 工具的預測。我知道這是生產的目標。但實際上，考慮到你和其他人一樣在供應鏈中目睹的困難。您對明年能夠將這一生產目標轉化為收入的信心有多大？

Yes. That's a good question, Stephane. I mean we are engaged -- we are encountering just like any other industrial company and even non-industrial companies, they are encountering issues with respect to component shortages, which is what we're also -- not we personally, but -- or our asset company, but in our supply chain and our supply chain does encounter these shortages.

是的。這是個好問題，斯蒂芬。我的意思是我們正在參與——我們遇到的就像任何其他工業公司甚至非工業公司一樣，他們遇到了與組件短缺有關的問題，這也是我們——不是我們個人，而是——或我們的資產公司，但在我們的供應鏈中，我們的供應鏈確實遇到了這些短缺。

And of course, we need all the modules from our suppliers to make an EUV tool. So yes, this is a concern for, I think, everybody. Now the way that we deal with it is you have to think about this is that if we identify, and that's what we do together with our supply chain, we identify shortages of certain components. We actually are very active in, let's say, exchanging those shortages and the need for those components with our customers.

當然，我們需要供應商提供的所有模塊來製造 EUV 工具。所以，是的，我認為這是每個人都關心的問題。現在我們處理它的方式是你必須考慮的是，如果我們確定，這就是我們與供應鏈一起做的事情，我們會確定某些組件的短缺。實際上，我們非常積極地與我們的客戶交換這些短缺和對這些組件的需求。

So although these components are not supplied by the customers of our suppliers, but we are the customer. We are still -- you could say the in-between to make sure that we can highlight to our customers, the chip manufacturers, that they need to produce these chips. Because if we cannot get the modules, then we cannot make the machines, so that the capacity shortage, that's obviously, will stay as is.

所以雖然這些組件不是由我們供應商的客戶提供，但我們是客戶。我們仍然——你可以說中間是為了確保我們可以向我們的客戶、芯片製造商強調他們需要生產這些芯片。因為如果我們無法獲得模塊，那麼我們就無法製造機器，因此很明顯的產能短缺將保持原樣。

I mean we need to add capacity and maybe ship machines to be able to deal with the current shortage. So when we have those discussions with our chip making customers. I mean we get a longer response, as you can imagine, because basically, we want to ship our machines to their installed base. So there is this loop that we are closing. And I think that is happening as we speak.

我的意思是我們需要增加產能，也許還需要運送機器來應對當前的短缺。因此，當我們與芯片製造客戶進行這些討論時。我的意思是我們得到了更長的響應，正如您可以想像的那樣，因為基本上，我們希望將我們的機器運送到他們的安裝基地。所以我們正在關閉這個循環。我認為這正在我們說話的時候發生。

Now is there some delay? Yes, of course, there is a delay because there's communication between our suppliers, ASML and the chip making companies, and to see how we can close the loop. That leads to a delay, and this is a delay that we're seeing. But I think in the end, we get it resolved, at least we get it resolved. So that's why we are still confident, that's what 2022, we will be able to actually ship 55 units.

現在有延遲嗎？是的，當然，有延遲，因為我們的供應商、ASML 和芯片製造公司之間存在溝通，看看我們如何才能關閉循環。這會導致延遲，這是我們所看到的延遲。但我認為最終，我們得到了解決，至少我們得到了解決。所以這就是為什麼我們仍然有信心，這就是 2022 年，我們將能夠實際出貨 55 台。

Now are there going to be some fast shipments by the end of the year, depending on these let's say, communication delays to get things resolved? Maybe. That's too early to tell. But I think the 55 shipments with our capability to be the intermediate between our supply chain and the chip makers, I think that's something that we feel comfortable with.

現在到今年年底會有一些快速發貨嗎，取決於這些，比如說，溝通延遲來解決問題？也許。這還為時過早。但我認為我們有能力成為供應鍊和芯片製造商之間的中間人的 55 批出貨量，我認為這是我們感到滿意的事情。

Okay. And looking still at 2022 about the gross margin evolution. What are the elements that we have to take into account when we try to model 2022 gross margin evolution, notably on the EUV services side, which has been at much lower profitability than the group?

好的。並且仍然關注 2022 年的毛利率演變。當我們嘗試對 2022 年的毛利率演變進行建模時，我們必須考慮哪些因素，特別是在 EUV 服務方面，其盈利能力遠低於集團？

Yes. I think the key things to look at is one, you mentioned is EUV gross margin. I think we've said that you should expect that, that continues to grow until we reach around 50% in the '24, '25 time frame, that's the number that we've given. We've also told you that we're approaching 30% this year. So that's kind of the buildup that you see there. So that's one element to consider there.

是的。我認為要看的關鍵是一個，你提到的是 EUV 毛利率。我認為我們已經說過你應該期待這一點，它會繼續增長，直到我們在 24 年、25 年的時間框架內達到 50% 左右，這就是我們給出的數字。我們還告訴過你，我們今年接近 30%。這就是你在那裡看到的那種積累。所以這是要考慮的一個因素。

I think the second element is the fact that next year is going to be 3600Ds only, right? So you won't have Cs you would only have Ds in next year. And the third element is that you're going to see a little bit of impact on the 2050, right? So the 2050 immersion tool, of course, will be more prevalent in next year than this year. So those, I would say, are probably the main element to look into for the gross margin in '22.

我認為第二個因素是明年將只有 3600D，對嗎？所以你不會有Cs，你明年只會有Ds。第三個因素是你會看到對 2050 年的一點影響，對吧？因此，2050 年的沉浸式工具在明年當然會比今年更加流行。所以，我想說，這些可能是 22 年毛利率的主要因素。

But you expect an improvement in gross margin, right?

但是您預計毛利率會有所改善，對嗎？

I think I only mentioned the things that improve the gross margin. So I think that's a reasonable assumption, but how much of that, stay tuned. And in 3 months' time we're going to give you more details on that. I think it is realistic to assume that you'll see an improvement based on the 3 drivers that I just mentioned.

我想我只提到了提高毛利率的事情。所以我認為這是一個合理的假設，但有多少，請繼續關注。 3 個月後，我們將為您提供更多詳細信息。我認為假設您會看到基於我剛才提到的 3 個驅動程序的改進是現實的。

Our next question comes from the line of Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

Apologies for imposing on you a third French accent in a row. I guess it must be done to try to be (inaudible) .

為連續第三次向您施加法國口音而道歉。我想必須嘗試成為（聽不清）。

We are used to French accents, Pierre. So it doesn't matter. I mean, as you know, we have 2 colleague Board members who are French. So we actually used to it.

我們習慣了法國口音，皮埃爾。所以沒關係。我的意思是，如您所知，我們有 2 位法國同事董事會成員。所以我們實際上已經習慣了。

I do remember that, Peter. So I have a pretty specific question. I hope it's the right forum to ask it. When we look like in Logic and foundry, I mean foundry, when your clients have moved to EUV, we've clearly seen that they've made a very, very full reuse of all the DUV tools because EUV layers were basically added to the DUV layers of the previous node.

我確實記得，彼得。所以我有一個非常具體的問題。我希望這是問它的正確論壇。當我們看起來像在 Logic 和代工廠時，我的意思是代工廠，當您的客戶轉移到 EUV 時，我們清楚地看到他們已經非常非常充分地重用了所有 DUV 工具，因為 EUV 層基本上被添加到了前一個節點的 DUV 層。

And the question I have is for your large IDM clients, Logic clients, these guys have pushed DUV one step further than others with the 10-nanometer node. And then as they move towards the node that they rename for, they're going to introduce EUV potentially in a more aggressive way, replacing things they've done with DUV in the previous node with EUV, which kind of would mean that maybe they would be buying more EUV tools in this transition, but also (inaudible) excess DUV tools in the process.

我的問題是針對你們的大型 IDM 客戶端、Logic 客戶端，這些傢伙比其他 10 納米節點的人更進一步推動了 DUV。然後，當他們向他們重命名的節點移動時，他們可能會以更激進的方式引入 EUV，用 EUV 替換他們在前一個節點中使用 DUV 所做的事情，這意味著他們可能在此過渡中將購買更多的 EUV 工具，但在此過程中也會（聽不清）過多的 DUV 工具。

And so I was just wondering if that's the case, if you have visibility on that and if it could impact at some point for a short period of time, the EUV demand.

所以我只是想知道是否是這種情況，如果你對此有了解，以及它是否會在短時間內影響 EUV 需求。

Yes. Yes. I think you are right that the number of EUV tools has gone up because EUV layers have gone up. We don't see any access in DPV for a few reasons. One, the product that is currently being produced with those DPV layers is still in very high demand. And number two, if you're an IDM, you also like to move into the foundry space, you'd better make sure you have those tools. Because foundry is not only about 7-nanometer. It's about 0.18 micron or even above that, two 7 nanometers. So it's the whole thing.

是的。是的。我認為你是對的，因為 EUV 層增加了，所以 EUV 工具的數量增加了。由於某些原因，我們在 DPV 中看不到任何訪問權限。一，目前使用這些 DPV 層生產的產品的需求量仍然很大。第二，如果你是 IDM，你也想進入代工領域，你最好確保你有這些工具。因為代工不僅僅是7納米左右。它大約是 0.18 微米甚至更高，兩個 7 納米。所以這就是全部。

So I would definitely not get rid of that excess DPV. I would start using it. So we haven't seen that, and it makes sense that we haven't seen it. Is that clear, Pierre?

所以我絕對不會擺脫多餘的 DPV。我會開始使用它。所以我們還沒有看到它，我們沒有看到它是有道理的。清楚嗎，皮埃爾？

Our next question comes from the line of Sandeep Deshpande of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

Maybe I'll ask you just a question on the industry. I mean, Peter, you saw a very strong increase in your orders in this cycle in Q4 last year, you saw a big step-up. And I mean, even today now, there are shortages in the semiconductor industry. How are you -- I mean, given that you have that visibility in terms of the wafers flowing through your equipment as much, have you seen additional wafers flowing today versus, say, Q4 last year through your equipment to say that there is much more capacity today versus in Q4 last year?

也許我會問你一個關於這個行業的問題。我的意思是，彼得，您在去年第四季度的這個週期中看到了非常強勁的訂單增長，您看到了大幅增長。我的意思是，即使在今天，半導體行業也存在短缺。你好嗎——我的意思是，鑑於你對流經設備的晶圓有同樣的了解，你有沒有看到今天有更多的晶圓流過，比如去年第四季度通過你的設備，說還有更多今天的產能與去年第四季度的相比？

And why are we still -- there are such big supply chain bottlenecks, including for yourselves and for many others in the -- and particularly related to the semiconductor industry. And I have one quick follow-up (inaudible).

為什麼我們仍然存在如此大的供應鏈瓶頸，包括你們自己和其他許多人——尤其是與半導體行業相關的。我有一個快速跟進（聽不清）。

Yes, Sandeep. I mean you've been around a long time and you asked the million-dollar question. So -- and the real answer is we don't know. We have some indications and some ideas. And yes, you are absolutely right, the wafer out capacity today is a big -- is a lot larger than it was in Q4 2020. That's true. And still, we see these shortages. Now I spoke to a very large customer and basically asked the same question.

是的，桑迪普。我的意思是你已經存在很長時間了，你問了一個價值百萬美元的問題。所以——真正的答案是我們不知道。我們有一些跡象和一些想法。是的，你說得對，今天的晶圓產能很大——比 2020 年第四季度要大得多。這是真的。而且，我們仍然看到這些短缺。現在我和一個非常大的客戶交談，基本上問了同樣的問題。

And I actually said, Peter, we don't know either. Because somehow we haven't been able to connect all the dots that actually are the underlying drivers for this demand. There's some rumors out there that the brokers and the distributors are playing as a devious role here because they stock up all the inventory and drive up to the prices. But I don't believe that, that much, again there will be some of it.

我實際上說，彼得，我們也不知道。因為不知何故，我們無法將實際上是這種需求的潛在驅動因素的所有點聯繫起來。有傳言說，經紀人和分銷商在這裡扮演了一個狡猾的角色，因為他們囤積了所有庫存並推高了價格。但我不相信，那麼多，還會有一些。

But even for the very large customers, like the smartphone makers that are direct customers to the semiconductor makers, have nothing to do with the distributors, yet they are in shortage also. So I think it is the underestimation of the very fast application of everything has to do with mobility, sensor technology, io2 type applications that we completely underestimated that tens of thousands of companies are making use of the capabilities of the cloud, of the high-performance computing in the data centers, of 5G and they are creating solutions, services, product that actually need, in the end, the compute power of the data centers, but also, let's say, the 90 and the 0.18-micron technology that's 20 years or 30 years old.

但即使是非常大的客戶，比如智能手機製造商，這些都是半導體製造商的直接客戶，與分銷商沒有任何關係，但他們也很短缺。因此，我認為是低估了與移動性、傳感器技術、io2 類型應用有關的一切事物的快速應用，我們完全低估了數以萬計的公司正在利用雲的能力， 5G 數據中心中的性能計算，他們正在創建解決方案、服務和產品，最終實際上需要數據中心的計算能力，而且還需要 90 微米和 20 微米的 0.18 微米技術歲或 30 歲。

This is what's happening today. And we haven't connected the dots. And that's happening today because that's why you see it everywhere. Take a car, if you look at the number of sensors that are currently in an advanced driver-assisted system in a car, it just exploded. And they also -- and they need -- and other device they need -- and then in power (inaudible) , they need a microcontroller. And that's just a car. I mean, it's everywhere. And this is where I think we are struggling to really understand the issues.

這就是今天發生的事情。我們還沒有把這些點聯繫起來。今天正在發生這種情況，因為這就是為什麼你到處都能看到它。拿一輛車來說，如果你看一下目前汽車中高級駕駛員輔助系統中的傳感器數量，它就會爆炸式增長。他們還 - 他們需要 - 以及他們需要的其他設備 - 然後在電源（聽不清），他們需要一個微控制器。那隻是一輛車。我的意思是，它無處不在。這就是我認為我們正在努力真正理解這些問題的地方。

I know one thing that the demand for mature, for DPV dry has by far exceeded our expectations where we are today. And yes, some of it will be panic ordering by the customers of our customers. But it's too big to just be panic ordering. So there is this underlying trend that we really don't understand fully. An as a person, I have the idea, it's the combination of the cloud, the high-power compute capabilities in the data centers, the fact that we're rolling out 5G and the fact that we have this distributed computing field that is growing almost exponentially in terms of services and products.

我知道一件事，對 DPV 乾燥的成熟需求遠遠超出了我們今天的預期。是的，其中一些將是我們客戶的客戶的恐慌訂購。但它太大了，不能只是恐慌訂購。所以有一個我們真的不完全理解的潛在趨勢。作為一個人，我有這樣的想法，它是雲、數據中心的高功率計算能力、我們正在推出 5G 的事實以及我們擁有這個正在增長的分佈式計算領域的事實在服務和產品方面幾乎成倍增長。

And the latter, we don't fully understand. And unfortunately, our customers don't understand it either, as I was told. So I'm sorry, I'm just going to add to the cloud of fog that we're currently seeing, but I cannot give you as a very clear answer.

而後者，我們並不完全理解。不幸的是，正如我被告知的那樣，我們的客戶也不理解它。所以我很抱歉，我只是要增加我們目前看到的霧雲，但我不能給你一個非常明確的答案。

I mean just actually a follow-up from that, and then (inaudible) has also previous questions on your Capital Markets Day. I mean there were some investors disappointed about your longer-term guidance. I mean, is it that your famous model is not factoring in some of these factors you mentioned earlier just now. And that is why you are guiding to what you are guiding in 2030 and maybe you will change that view over time because your model is probably not taking into consideration some of these factors which have changed [25%] to such a large extent from your previous guidance and then whereas 2030 is quite a long way away as yet.

我的意思是實際上只是後續行動，然後（聽不清）在您的資本市場日也有以前的問題。我的意思是有些投資者對你的長期指導感到失望。我的意思是，您的著名模型是否沒有考慮到您剛才提到的一些因素。這就是為什麼你要指導你在 2030 年指導的內容，也許你會隨著時間的推移改變這種觀點，因為你的模型可能沒有考慮到這些因素中的一些因素，這些因素已經在很大程度上改變了 [25%]之前的指導，然後到 2030 年還有很長的路要走。

I mean, you're very perceptive. This is exactly the question I asked to our strategic marketing group is that there are things going on -- I mean, if our customers tell us, we cannot connect the dots because we have this question mark, you can imagine that -- the question I asked to our strategic marketing group is you need to find that level of information that will enable us to basically connect more dots and put that in the model. You're absolutely correct.

我的意思是，你很有洞察力。這正是我向我們的戰略營銷團隊提出的問題，就是有些事情正在發生——我的意思是，如果我們的客戶告訴我們，我們無法將這些點聯繫起來，因為我們有這個問號，你可以想像——這個問題我問我們的戰略營銷小組，您是否需要找到使我們能夠基本上連接更多點並將其放入模型的信息水平。你完全正確。

Our model is based on what we know and what we know as historical trends, but our model is not built to be, let's say, to actually predict the future. It can only predict the future based on the parameters that we know, that we have put in the model. But the parameters that we don't know and that are changing the world as we speak, are of course, not in there. And it's exactly what I wanted our strategic marketing group to do. So but we told you what we know, not what some crystal ball might have told us. I mean...

我們的模型基於我們所知道的和我們所知道的歷史趨勢，但我們的模型並不是為了實際預測未來而構建的。它只能根據我們知道的、我們放入模型的參數來預測未來。但是，我們不知道的參數以及正在改變我們所說的世界的參數，當然不在那裡。這正是我希望我們的戰略營銷團隊做的事情。所以，但我們告訴了你我們所知道的，而不是一些水晶球可能告訴我們的。我是說...

Sandeep, I think I made it perfectly clear when I introduced the model. I think the base is an external source, right? It's external numbers in terms of were external source to see the semiconductor market goes. So you might look at it and say, we think it could grow faster based on the developments that we just talked about, but that was the starting point. And then we also said that we had a number of estimates in there that some refer to as conservative, right?

Sandeep，我想我在介紹模型時已經說得很清楚了。我認為基地是外部來源，對吧？從外部來源來看，半導體市場的走勢是外部數據。所以你可能會看著它說，我們認為它可以根據我們剛才談到的發展更快地增長，但那是起點。然後我們還說我們有一些估計，有些人認為是保守的，對吧？

We talked about litho intensity being at the same level of 2025. Some say that's conservative. That's the assumption that we've applied. We've looked at a market share that doesn't move from 2025. Again, some people would say with further advancement of EUV, High-NA, et cetera, your market share should continue to grow in terms of the total share in the pie.

我們談到光刻強度與 2025 年處於同一水平。有人說這是保守的。這就是我們應用的假設。我們已經研究了從 2025 年起不會發生變化的市場份額。同樣，有些人會說隨著 EUV、High-NA 等的進一步發展，你的市場份額應該會繼續增長。餡餅。

So I think we've given the assumptions, some refer to those assumptions as conservative, but that's the background, and that's the basis for the model.

所以我認為我們已經給出了假設，有些人認為這些假設是保守的，但這就是背景，也是模型的基礎。

But they are all consequences of our understanding of what we currently see. I mean we didn't see a specific reason to what Roger said to increase our market share or to increase the litho intensity much because there's so much going on, which we don't understand fully yet.

但它們都是我們對當前所見事物的理解的結果。我的意思是我們沒有看到羅傑所說的增加我們的市場份額或增加光刻強度的具體原因，因為發生了很多事情，我們還不完全理解。

And it's [9] years out.

它已經 [9] 年了。

And that's quite a long way out. So yes, you are right. I think in 1 or 2 years' time, we have some more intelligence. We can put it into our model parameters, and we'll probably see a different outcome.

這還有很長的路要走。所以，是的，你是對的。我認為在 1 或 2 年的時間裡，我們會有更多的智慧。我們可以將它放入我們的模型參數中，我們可能會看到不同的結果。

And that last question will come from the line of Francois Bouvignies of UBS.

最後一個問題將來自瑞銀的弗朗索瓦·布維尼 (Francois Bouvignies)。

Sorry for the extra French accent. On the -- I just have 2 quick questions. The first one is on the, maybe related to what you said, Peter, around what we don't understand about the demand. When I look at your China exposure, which is like 10% this quarter, 17% last quarter.

對不起，額外的法國口音。關於——我只有兩個簡單的問題。第一個是關於，可能與您所說的有關，彼得，關於我們對需求的不了解。當我查看您在中國的風險敞口時，本季度為 10%，上季度為 17%。

And if I assume that you don't have any [AUV] in China, from local base China I'm talking, and so do you think -- what is the risk that with all that's going on in China in terms of uncertainty around procurement of tools in the future and also the local push. Is there any effect of pulling that you would expect maybe coming from China and is driving the demand particularly strong on the DPV side, obviously? And I have a quick follow-up after.

如果我假設你在中國沒有任何[AUV]，我說的是來自中國當地的基地，那麼你認為 - 在中國發生的一切不確定性方面，風險是什麼？以後採購工具也是本地推。是否有任何您預期可能來自中國的拉動效應，並且明顯推動 DPV 方面的需求特別強勁？之後我有一個快速的跟進。

Yes. Yes, that's a good question. I think generally, I would say, our local Chinese customers follow their capacity expansion road map quite accurately. So what we're seeing today is actually a result of what they told us also last year. Now having said that, they're also reacting, of course, to the local chip shortage. So whenever they have an opportunity to put more machines into their factory, they will do that. So I think for the large capacity expansion plans, they just follow plan.

是的。是的，這是個好問題。我認為一般來說，我會說，我們當地的中國客戶非常準確地遵循他們的產能擴張路線圖。所以我們今天看到的實際上是他們去年告訴我們的結果。話雖如此，他們當然也在對當地的芯片短缺做出反應。因此，只要他們有機會將更多機器投入他們的工廠，他們就會這樣做。所以我認為對於大容量擴張計劃，他們只是按照計劃進行。

For the shorter term, anything that we can pull in that they ask for a pull-in. But that is, I think, more driven by the current demand in the market than by any strategic reasoning. The strategic reason is more the total capacity that they want to build over next couple of years. And that actually has been pretty stable or pretty accurate also in terms of execution.

在短期內，我們可以拉入他們要求拉入的任何東西。但我認為，這更多是受當前市場需求的驅動，而不是任何戰略推理。戰略原因更多的是他們希望在未來幾年內建立的總容量。這實際上在執行方面也相當穩定或相當準確。

Okay. Makes sense. And maybe the last one is on -- when you talk about the upgrades going into 2022 that may be strong depending on the downtime your customers are giving you. I imagine your customers today, they don't know how much downtime there will be in 2022 because who knows what's going to be the demand. So my question is, if we assume upgrades picking up next year, is there a risk to your [DPV] product shipments as well as you know you increased your capacity significantly maybe in some cases, with upgrades. How should we think about the relation between the 2 (inaudible) upgrades and your products?

好的。說得通。也許最後一個已經開啟——當你談到 2022 年的升級時，升級可能會很強勁，這取決於你的客戶給你的停機時間。我想像你今天的客戶，他們不知道 2022 年會有多少停機時間，因為誰知道會有什麼需求。所以我的問題是，如果我們假設明年將開始升級，那麼您的 [DPV] 產品出貨量是否存在風險，並且您知道在某些情況下您可能會通過升級顯著增加產能。我們應該如何看待兩次（聽不清）升級與您的產品之間的關係？

Yes, I think you really need to look at the upgrades as a kind of a fast incremental addition to your capacity. And the machines that they're buying is really driven by the more medium- to long-term view that they have on the capacity needs. So I think one does not cannibalize the other in the demand situation where we are today. We need both.

是的，我認為您確實需要將升級視為對您容量的一種快速增量。他們購買的機器實際上是由他們對容量需求的中長期觀點驅動的。所以我認為在我們今天的需求情況下，一個不會蠶食另一個。我們兩者都需要。

All right. Thank you. If you are unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你。如果您無法接通本次電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯繫 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。現在我代表 ASML，感謝大家今天加入我們。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝你。

Thank you. This concludes the ASML 2021 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。 ASML 2021 年第三季度財務業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。