艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2021 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on October 20, 2021. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2021 年 10 月 20 日舉行的 ASML 2021 年第三季財務業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）現在，我想將電話交給 Skip Miller 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2021 Third Quarter Results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com.

謝謝您，接線生。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink；以及我們的財務長 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2021 年第三季業績。此次通話時間為 60 分鐘，問題將依照收到的順序進行解答。此次電話會議也透過 asml.com 進行網路現場直播。

A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call. Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

管理層開場白的記錄和電話會議的重播將在本次電話會議結束後不久在我們的網站上提供。在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and the presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。對於風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿中包含的安全港聲明和我們網站 asml.com 上的介紹以及 ASML 提交給美國證券交易委員會的 20-F 表年度報告和其他文件中的內容。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our Q3 2021 results conference call. I hope all of you and your families are still healthy and safe. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the third quarter as well as provide our view on the coming quarters. Roger will start with a review of our Q3 2021 financial performance with other comments on our short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook.

謝謝你，斯基普。歡迎大家，感謝您參加我們的 2021 年第三季業績電話會議。我希望你們所有人和你們的家人依然健康、平安。在我們開始問答環節之前，羅傑和我想對第三季度進行概述和評論，並對未來幾季發表看法。羅傑將首先回顧我們 2021 年第三季的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表其他評論。最後，我將對當前的商業環境和我們未來的商業前景發表一些補充評論，以完成介紹。

Roger, if you will.

羅傑，如果你願意的話。

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the third quarter financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the fourth quarter of 2021. We had a record quarter on a number of fronts, including total revenue, EUV system revenue and net income. Net sales came in within guidance at EUR 5.2 billion. We shipped 13 EUV systems and recognized EUR 2.2 billion revenue from 15 systems this quarter.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第三季的財務業績，然後對 2021 年第四季提供指導。我們在本季在多個方面都創下了紀錄，包括總收入、EUV 系統收入和淨收入。淨銷售額達到預期的 52 億歐元。本季我們出貨了 13 套 EUV 系統，並從 15 套系統中實現了 22 億歐元的收入。

Net system sales of EUR 4.1 billion was again more weighted towards Logic at 61%, with the remaining 39% from Memory. The continued strength in Logic drives both DPV and EUV revenue. The memory business is mainly driven by DRAM. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.1 billion, above guidance due to increased upgrades and service business.

41 億歐元的淨系統銷售額中，邏輯產品佔比重再次增加，為 61%，其餘 39% 來自記憶體。邏輯業務的持續強勁推動了 DPV 和 EUV 的收入。記憶體業務主要由DRAM驅動。本季安裝基礎管理銷售額達到 11 億歐元，由於升級和服務業務的成長而高於預期。

Gross margin for the quarter was 51.7% and was within guidance. On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 609 million, which was below our guidance due to several one-off effects in the quarter. SG&A expenses of EUR 183 million was basically at guidance. Net income in Q3 was EUR 1.7 billion, representing 33.2% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 4.27.

本季毛利率為 51.7%，符合預期。在營運費用方面，研發費用為 6.09 億歐元，由於本季的幾項一次性影響，低於我們的預期。 1.83 億歐元的銷售、一般及行政費用基本上符合預期。第三季淨收入為 17 億歐元，佔淨銷售額的 33.2%，每股收益為 4.27 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 4.5 billion. Moving to the order book. Q3 net system bookings came in at EUR 6.2 billion, including EUR 2.9 billion for EUV systems. Order intake was largely driven by Logic with 84% of the bookings, both from DPV and EUV, with Memory accounting for the remaining 16%.

轉向資產負債表。截至第三季末，我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資達到 45 億歐元。移至訂單簿。第三季淨系統訂單金額為 62 億歐元，其中 EUV 系統訂單金額為 29 億歐元。訂單量主要由邏輯驅動，其中 84% 的訂單來自 DPV 和 EUV，而記憶體則佔剩餘的 16%。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the fourth quarter of 2021. We expect Q4 total net sales to be between EUR 4.9 billion and EUR 5.2 billion. There are some items to note that are expected to delay revenue from Q4 2021 into Q1 2022. In the process of increasing capacity, we experienced some issues regarding material shortage in our supply chain. In addition, we experienced issues in the start-up of our new logistics center.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2021 年第四季的預期。我們預計第四季總淨銷售額將在 49 億歐元至 52 億歐元之間。需要注意的是，預計一些事項將導致收入從 2021 年第四季推遲到 2022 年第一季。在增加產能的過程中，我們遇到了一些供應鏈材料短缺的問題。此外，我們在啟動新的物流中心時也遇到了一些問題。

These 2 issues have largely been addressed for this year's output, but resulted in a late start on the assembly of a number of systems. In this high demand environment, our customers are requesting fast shipments or no factory acceptance test in order to bring systems into production as quickly as possible. While the impact on the third quarter was relatively small, the late starts combined with the fast shipments are expected to have an impact on the revenue to be recognized in the fourth quarter, which is included in our guidance.

這兩個問題在今年的產出中已基本解決，但導致許多系統的組裝開始較晚。在這種高需求環境下，我們的客戶要求快速出貨或無需工廠驗收測試，以便盡快將系統投入生產。雖然對第三季度的影響相對較小，但較晚的開工加上快速的出貨量預計將對第四季度確認的收入產生影響，這已包含在我們的預期中。

We're still on track to achieve revenue growth approaching 35% for the full year. We expect our Q4 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 1.1 billion. Gross margin for Q4 is expected to be between 51% and 52%, with an expected gross margin of around 52% for the full year. The expected R&D expenses for Q4 are around EUR 670 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at around EUR 195 million. Our estimated 2021 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be around 15%.

我們仍有望實現全年營收成長近 35% 的目標。我們預計第四季度安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 11 億歐元。預計第四季毛利率在51%至52%之間，預計全年毛利率約為52%。第四季預計研發費用約 6.7 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用預計約 1.95 億歐元。我們預計 2021 年年化有效稅率約為 15%。

The interim dividend for 2021 will be EUR 1.80 per ordinary share. The ex-dividend date as well as the fixing date for the euro-U.S. dollar conversion will be November 2, 2021, and the record date will be November 3, 2021. The dividend will be made payable on November 12, 2021. In Q3, 2021 ASML purchased 3.6 million shares for a total amount of around EUR 2.4 billion under the current and previous program.

2021 年中期股利為每股普通股 1.80 歐元。歐元兌美元的除息日和定價日。美元轉換時間為 2021 年 11 月 2 日，記錄日期為 2021 年 11 月 3 日。股利將於 2021 年 11 月 12 日支付。 2021 年第三季度，ASML 根據目前和先前的計畫購買了 360 萬股股票，總價值約 24 億歐元。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, we had a record quarter on both sales and profitability. We're seeing continued strong demand from our customers across all market segments from both advanced and mature nodes, driving demand across our entire product portfolio. We had a total backlog of EUR 19.6 billion, including EUV of EUR 11.6 billion, which is a reflection of the very healthy market environment we're in today and fully covers the planned EUV output for 2022 and the beginning of 2023.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的，我們本季的銷售額和獲利能力均創下了紀錄。我們看到來自各個細分市場的客戶對先進和成熟節點的需求持續強勁，從而推動了我們整個產品組合的需求。我們的積壓訂單總額為 196 億歐元，其中包括 116 億歐元的 EUV，這反映了我們目前非常健康的市場環境，並完全涵蓋了 2022 年和 2023 年初的 EUV 產量計劃。

While it is a bit too early to provide specific guidance for 2022, we expect the end market trends we have highlighted throughout 2021 to continue into next year. These end market trends are driving strong demand across all market segments and across our entire technology portfolio. Therefore, we continue to increase our capacity for all of our products to meet customer capacity and technology requirements.

雖然現在為 2022 年提供具體指導還為時過早，但我們預計我們在 2021 年全年強調的終端市場趨勢將持續到明年。這些終端市場趨勢正在推動所有細分市場和我們整個技術組合的強勁需求。因此，我們不斷提高所有產品的產能，以滿足客戶的產能和技術要求。

In Logic, strong end-market demand continues as part of the ongoing digital transformation. The [browsing] application space with distributed computing across the IoT landscape, not only drives the demand for leading-edge nodes but also creates significant demand for mature nodes as an integral part of the growing digital infrastructure. We expect continued growth in our Logic business as customer demand remains strong for both advanced and mature nodes.

在 Logic 中，作為正在進行的數位轉型的一部分，強勁的終端市場需求持續存在。物聯網領域中具有分散式運算的[瀏覽]應用空間不僅推動了對前沿節點的需求，而且也對成熟節點產生了巨大的需求，使其成為不斷發展的數位基礎設施不可或缺的一部分。由於客戶對先進和成熟節點的需求依然強勁，我們預期邏輯業務將繼續成長。

In Memory, we also expect to see continued growth of our business next year. Strong end market demand for servers and smartphones is the primary driver for Memory demand next year with some uncertainty on the demand picture for PCs. Little tool utilization levels remain very high and customers see demand bit growth in 2022 in the mid- to high-teens percentage for DRAM and around 30% for NAND. To meet demand for this expected bit growth, customers will need to add capacity as well as continue to make node migrations. As customers migrate to more advanced nodes, we also expect to see an increase in EUV demand for memory.

在記憶方面，我們也預計明年我們的業務將繼續成長。終端市場對伺服器和智慧型手機的強勁需求是明年記憶體需求的主要驅動力，而個人電腦的需求前景則存在一些不確定性。小工具利用率水準仍然很高，客戶預計 2022 年 DRAM 的需求位成長率將達到中高百分比，NAND 的需求位成長率將達到 30% 左右。為了滿足預期的位元成長需求，客戶將需要增加容量並繼續進行節點遷移。隨著客戶遷移到更先進的節點，我們也預期 EUV 對記憶體的需求會增加。

For our installed base business, we see an opportunity for service growth next year as we continue to expand our installed base of our entire product portfolio as well as the increased contribution of EUV service as this technology ramps in volume production. Driven by the expected continued shortage of semiconductor components, we also see an opportunity to grow our upgrade revenue further. This will depend, however, on our customers' willingness to take systems down to perform these upgrades amidst the strong demand cycle.

對於我們的安裝基礎業務，我們看到明年服務成長的機會，因為我們將繼續擴大整個產品組合的安裝基礎，並且隨著這項技術在批量生產中的應用，EUV 服務的貢獻也會增加。在預期半導體元件持續短缺的推動下，我們也看到了進一步增加升級收入的機會。然而，這將取決於我們的客戶是否願意在強勁的需求週期中關閉系統以進行這些升級。

To meet the strong demand across our entire product portfolio, we, first of all, are driving down our manufacturing cycle times and working with our supply chain to increase our output capability for EUV as well as DPV. As communicated during our Investor Day, we expect to increase unit output for DPV by approximately 1.5x and EUV over 2x by 2025, primarily through manufacturing capacity additions in our supply chain. At the same time, we are shipping higher productivity machines, which when taken into account with our higher unit output capacity plan, we expect an increase in effective wafer capacity for DPV of approximately 2x and for EUV over 3x by 2025.

為了滿足我們整個產品組合的強勁需求，我們首先縮短了製造週期，並與我們的供應鏈合作，以提高我們的 EUV 和 DPV 的產出能力。正如我們在投資者日所傳達的那樣，我們預計到 2025 年，DPV 的單位產量將增加約 1.5 倍，EUV 的單位產量將增加 2 倍以上，這主要透過增加我們供應鏈中的製造能力來實現。同時，我們正在運送生產率更高的機器，考慮到我們更高的單位產出能力計劃，我們預計到 2025 年 DPV 的有效晶圓產能將增加約 2 倍，EUV 的有效晶圓產能將增加 3 倍以上。

The actions in our supply chain to increase output at different time horizons are to materialize, but we expect to see an impact of these actions starting this year and extending into next year. For EUV, we're still planning for a capacity of around 55 systems next year. These will all be 3200D systems, which deliver a 15% to 20% higher productivity over the [3300C] systems.

我們的供應鏈中在不同時間範圍內增加產量的行動將會實現，但我們預計這些行動的影響將從今年開始並延續到明年。對於 EUV，我們仍計劃在明年實現約 55 個系統的產能。這些都將是 3200D 系統，與 [3300C] 系統相比，其生產率高出 15% 至 20%。

For DPV, as mentioned last quarter, we are utilizing our safety stock this year to significantly increase DPV output. So we'll not have this buffer inventory going into next year, and will, therefore, need to rely on building additional capacity, as just mentioned. We are actively working with our supply chain partners to increase our capacity next year, and the final output and mix will depend on our supply chain progress although we currently believe we should be able to reach our 2021 shipment output.

對於 DPV，正如上個季度所提到的，我們今年正在利用安全庫存來大幅增加 DPV 產量。因此，我們不會在明年保留這些緩衝庫存，因此需要依靠建造額外的產能，正如剛才所提到的。我們正在積極與我們的供應鏈合作夥伴合作，以提高明年的產能，最終的產量和組合將取決於我們的供應鏈進度，儘管我們目前認為我們應該能夠達到 2021 年的出貨量。

In summary, chip demand is very strong, and we are working to maximize output to meet customer demand. The secular growth trends as part of the digital transformation to a more connected world are fueling future demand across all market segments at both the advanced and the mature nodes, and we expect another year of healthy growth in 2022.

綜上所述，晶片需求非常強勁，我們正在努力最大限度地提高產量以滿足客戶的需求。作為向更互聯的世界進行數位轉型的一部分，長期成長趨勢正在推動先進和成熟節點所有細分市場的未來需求，我們預計 2022 年將再次實現健康成長。

Looking beyond next year, I'd like to provide a quick summary of our Investor Day that we held last month where we provided a longer-term view of our business and growth opportunities. The global mega-trends in the electronics industry supported by a highly profitable and innovative ecosystem are expected to continue to fuel growth across the semiconductor markets. Growth in semiconductor end-markets and increasing lithography intensity are driving demand for our products and services.

展望明年，我想簡要總結我們上個月舉行的投資者日，我們在會上對我們的業務和成長機會進行了長期展望。在高利潤和創新的生態系統的支持下，電子產業的全球大趨勢預計將繼續推動整個半導體市場的成長。半導體終端市場的成長和光刻強度的提高正在推動對我們產品和服務的需求。

ASML's comprehensive product portfolio is aligned to our customers' road maps, delivering cost-effective solutions in support of all applications from leading edge to mature nodes. And based on different market scenarios, we have an opportunity to reach an annual revenue in 2025 between approximately EUR 24 billion in a low market scenario and EUR 30 billion in high market scenario with a gross margin in 2025 between approximately 54% and 56%. We see significant growth opportunities beyond 2025.

ASML 的綜合產品組合與我們客戶的路線圖保持一致，提供具有成本效益的解決方案，支援從前沿到成熟節點的所有應用。根據不同的市場情景，我們有機會在 2025 年實現年收入約 240 億歐元（低市場情景）和 300 億歐元（高市場情景），毛利率約 54% 至 56% 之間。我們看到 2025 年以後的巨大成長機會。

Using third-party research and applying our own market and customer intelligence, we expect our systems and installed base business to provide a comfortable annual revenue growth rate of around 11% for the period 2020, 2030. We are continuously improving our performance on our ESG sustainability KPIs and are upgrading our ESG sustainability strategy to accelerate progress.

透過第三方研究並運用我們自己的市場和客戶情報，我們預計我們的系統和安裝基礎業務將在 2020 年至 2030 年期間提供約 11% 的舒適年收入成長率。我們正在不斷提高 ESG 永續性 KPI 的績效，並正在升級我們的 ESG 永續性策略以加快進展。

Our industry can contribute significantly to cut global emissions by 15% in 2030. Our ESG sustainability strategy is focused on developing lithography technology to continue to produce microchips that are 3x more energy efficient every 2 years, helping our customers and suppliers to minimize materials and energy required to produce advanced microchips and driving the road map towards zero waste by 2030 and net zero value chain emissions by 2040.

我們的產業可以為 2030 年全球排放量減少 15% 做出重大貢獻。我們的 ESG 永續發展策略專注於開發光刻技術，以繼續每 2 年生產出能源效率提高 3 倍的微晶片，幫助我們的客戶和供應商最大限度地減少生產先進微晶片所需的材料和能源，並推動到 2030 年實現零浪費，到 2040 年實現淨零價值鏈排放。

Our continued investments in technology leadership have created significant shareholder value. As outlined in our capital allocation strategy, we (inaudible) expect to continue to return significant amounts of cash to our shareholders through a combination of growing dividends and share buybacks.

我們對技術領導力的持續投資創造了巨大的股東價值。正如我們的資本配置策略中所述，我們（聽不清楚）希望透過增加股利和股票回購等方式繼續向股東返還大量現金。

And in summary, we have increased and -- we have increased and strong confidence in our long-term growth opportunities, while we deliver significant value to all our stakeholders.

總而言之，我們對我們的長期成長機會更有信心，同時我們為所有利害關係人提供了巨大的價值。

With that, we would be happy to take your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

謝謝你，羅傑和彼得。操作員將立即指導您在問答環節的協議。 （接線生指示）現在接線員，請問您最後的指示和第一個問題好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Mehdi at SIG.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi。

Regarding the -- some of the reasons for revenue shortfall that you highlighted, how should I think about just the overall 2021 revenue if there was no material shortage, if you didn't have to deal with capacity expansion and if you didn't have to deal with revenue recognition. If you were to eliminate all of those 3 factors, how would the 2021 revenue would look like? And I have a follow-up.

關於您強調的一些收入短缺的原因，如果沒有材料短缺，如果您不必處理產能擴張，如果您不必處理收入確認，我應該如何考慮 2021 年的整體收入。如果消除這 3 個因素，2021 年的收入將會如何？我還有一個後續問題。

I think, Mehdi, the way to look at that is we still in the upper limit, we still guide the same number that we guided before. But you would have seen that, for instance, on the Installed Base business. We guide a number that is approximately EUR 300 million higher than the number that we guided last time. So that gives you a bit of an indication that, that is the number that is somehow -- is shifting, if you like, from this year into Q1 of next year. That's the number to look at.

我認為，Mehdi，看待這個問題的方式是我們仍然處於上限，我們指導的數字仍然與之前相同。但是您可能已經在安裝基礎業務中看到過這種情況。我們預計的數字比上次預計的數字高出約 3 億歐元。所以這給了你一點暗示，如果你願意的話，這個數字正在從今年轉移到明年第一季。這就是需要查看的數字。

Okay. Great. And then a quick second follow-up. The EUR 19 billion of backlog that you recorded end of Q3 of '21. Could that be the near-term peak, especially in the context of your 2025 revenue target at the low end starting with [24%]. So -- and we're like 4 years away. So I would think that EUR 19 billion of backlog could be a near-term peak. I'm just trying to better understand how we would go from here. Any color would be great.

好的。偉大的。然後進行快速的第二次跟進。您在 21 年第三季末記錄的積壓訂單量為 190 億歐元。這會是近期的峰值嗎，尤其是考慮到 2025 年收入目標的低端是從 [24%] 開始。所以——我們還有四年的時間。因此我認為 190 億歐元的積壓訂單可能是近期的高峰。我只是想更好地了解我們將如何繼續前進。任何顏色都很好。

Yes, Mehdi, good question. But I think -- like I said in my introductory comments, in a low market we will be at the EUR 24 billion and in high market would be at EUR 30 billion. So that is basically what we are looking at. And to take a backlog any moment in time is really a function of our shipment pattern because we are shipping out of that backlog, but also the lumpiness with which our customers are going to give us orders. So I wouldn't read too much into the EUR 19.6 billion other than that's a big number. And that big number is actually because there is a shortage and especially in leading-edge equipment and other types of equipment.

是的，Mehdi，這個問題問得好。但我認為——就像我在開場白中所說的那樣，在低迷的市場中我們的規模將達到 240 億歐元，而在高迷的市場中我們的規模將達到 300 億歐元。這就是我們所關注的。任何時候處理積壓訂單實際上都取決於我們的出貨模式，因為我們要發運積壓訂單，而且客戶給我們的訂單量也很大。因此，我不會對 196 億歐元進行過多解讀，只知道這是一個很大的數字。而這個巨大的數字實際上是因為存在短缺，尤其是尖端設備和其他類型的設備。

So yes, customers are ordering. 2022 for EUV is covered. I mean, we are booking into 2023. So I think that -- it is more a function of the lumpiness of the order intake for our customers that have expansion plans, which between now and 2025 can be quite significant, also taking into account the announcement of the new fabs, the drive of technological sovereignty, the geopolitical situation.

是的，顧客正在訂購。 2022 年 EUV 已涵蓋。我的意思是，我們的訂單已經排到 2023 年了。所以我認為這更多的取決於我們那些有擴張計劃的客戶的訂單量，從現在到 2025 年，這些訂單量可能會相當大，同時也要考慮到新晶圓廠的宣布、技術主權的驅動、地緣政治局勢。

So there's many, many elements there that will drive our order intake. So I would not think of this as a peak. I would just look at this as a point towards a significantly higher sales number by 2025.

因此，有許多因素可以推動我們的訂單量。所以我並不認為這是一個巔峰。我只是將此視為 2025 年銷售額大幅成長的指標。

And our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer at Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

I'm just kind of curious, when you look at the bookings number, the Memory bookings kind of decelerated. Is that mainly a timing issue? Is there something more going on there? And how does that kind of influence your view on 2022?

我只是有點好奇，當你查看預訂數量時，內存預訂量有點減速了。這主要是時間問題嗎？那裡還發生什麼事了嗎？這對您對 2022 年的看法有何影響？

I know you said that Memory is still expected to be strong, but anything you can give us from a color perspective on the Q3 bookings would be great.

我知道您說過 Memory 的銷量仍然會很強勁，但是如果您能從色彩角度向我們提供有關第三季度預訂量的任何信息，那就太好了。

Yes, I think it's basically a timing issue. I mean it's the -- we had stronger Memory bookings in Q2. Now we have stronger Logic bookings in Q3. And let's be honest, I mean, we have over EUR 6 billion of bookings worldwide. Our sales in Q3 were EUR 4 billion, so I think the booking number is pretty good. So yes, I think for 2022 on the Memory, I said it in my introductory comments, we feel good about 2022 because our customers feel good about 2022.

是的，我認為這基本上是一個時間問題。我的意思是——我們在第二季的記憶體預訂量更高。現在我們在第三季的 Logic 預訂量更高了。說實話，我們在全球的預訂金額超過 60 億歐元。我們第三季的銷售額為 40 億歐元，所以我認為預訂數量相當不錯。是的，我認為對於 2022 年的記憶，我在介紹性評論中說過，我們對 2022 年感覺良好，因為我們的客戶對 2022 年感覺良好。

And yes, there's been some concern about DRAM weakness. Our customers feel that is not structural. There's all kind of reasons why in certain segments, there is a temporary weakness, but they definitely see the need to add capacity, but also to do the node migrations. And that means that we see continued growth next year. So we're positive. Don't ask us to have a crystal ball on Memory and DRAM pricing, but what we do is that we listen very carefully to our customers and our customers' expansion plans and their optimism and their confidence that they need to expand. And so this is why we are optimistic also for growth next year.

是的，人們對 DRAM 的疲軟確實有些擔憂。我們的客戶認為這不是結構性的。在某些領域存在著各種各樣的原因，但它們確實看到了增加容量的必要性，同時也需要進行節點遷移。這意味著明年我們將持續成長。所以我們很樂觀。不要要求我們對內存和 DRAM 定價有水晶球，但我們所做的是，我們非常仔細地傾聽客戶和客戶的擴張計劃以及他們的樂觀態度和對擴張需要的信心。這就是我們對明年的成長持樂觀態度的原因。

That's helpful. And then, Peter, as you know, this industry either gives you high-class problems or low-class problems. And right now, there's a lot of high-class problems out there. I'm kind of curious -- can you help me better understand around your capacity expansion. To what extent is it just the need to add fixed cost that you might have to carry through the inevitable cyclical correction when it comes? And to what extent is this variable cost? And I'd be curious, both on kind of the 2022 kind of capacity you're thinking about, but also importantly, the 2025 target as you talk about DPV and EUV production being up 1.5x and more than 2x.

這很有幫助。然後，彼得，如你所知，這個行業要么給你帶來高級問題，要么給你帶來低級問題。而現在，存在著許多高階問題。我有點好奇——您能幫助我更了解您的產能擴張嗎？在多大程度上只需要增加固定成本，你就必須經歷不可避免的週期性調整？那麼這個變動成本在多大程度上呢？我很好奇，不僅考慮您所考慮的 2022 年產能，而且重要的是，您談到的 2025 年目標，即 DPV 和 EUV 產量將增長 1.5 倍和 2 倍以上。

Yes. I also said in my statement that these capacity additions are largely focused on adding capacity in the supply chain. Now we are adding people. That's also clear. I think we hired this year with some attrition, but we probably hired between 6,000 and 7,000 people. So we're probably going to add about 4,500 to 5,000 people. That's, of course, fixed cost. But that's in R&D. That's not only in manufacturing capacity. It's in service, which, of course, is -- has to do with the higher business level.

是的。我在聲明中也說了，這些產能的增加，很大程度是集中在供應鏈產能的增加。現在我們正在增加人員。這也很清楚。我認為我們今年招募了一些員工，但我們可能招募了 6,000 到 7,000 人。所以我們可能會增加大約 4,500 到 5,000 人。當然，這是固定成本。但那是在研發中。這不僅體現在製造能力上。它存在於服務中，當然，這與更高的業務水平有關。

So I think it is larger -- for us, it's largely people. It's some CapEx, but not out of the ordinary. It's what we have planned, started to plan this even last year and the year before. So I don't think that's the major issue. It's really in the supply chain if you -- and you talked about the inevitable correction. Yes. I mean, we have corrections. We have always seen corrections in our industry. I'm not going to say that they're not there. But we have to look at some of the trends that we're also seeing.

所以我認為它更大——對我們來說，它主要是人。這是一些資本支出，但並不罕見。這是我們計劃的，去年和前年就開始計劃了。所以我不認為這是主要問題。如果你談到不可避免的修正，那麼它確實存在於供應鏈中。是的。我的意思是，我們有修正。我們總是看到我們的行業出現調整。我不會說他們不在那裡。但我們必須關注我們所看到的一些趨勢。

And when we look at the announcement of the build-out of new capacity. It is also very much driven by, I would say, the geopolitical situation and governments looking at technological sovereignty giving quite significant incentives. Just refer to the to the U.S. chip sector, EUR 52 billion, of which EUR 40 billion is for basically to support expansion of capacity. That's going to happen over the next couple of years. It will take 2 to 3 years.

當我們看到有關新產能建設的公告時。我想說，這也在很大程度上受到地緣政治局勢和各國政府對技術主權的關注以及給予相當大的激勵的推動。僅參考美國晶片產業，520億歐元，其中400億歐元主要用於支援產能擴張。這將在未來幾年內發生。這將需要2到3年的時間。

So (inaudible) any fluctuations in the end demand, that's going to happen. So I think and that's what we believe that adding that capacity is absolutely necessary because we do believe we see higher levels of equipment demand over the next couple of years. So when this inevitable correction will come, I don't think it's likely to come anywhere soon.

因此（聽不清楚）最終需求的任何波動都會發生。所以我認為，我們也認為增加產能是絕對必要的，因為我們確實相信未來幾年設備需求會更高。因此，當這種不可避免的調整到來時，我認為它不太可能很快就會到來。

Our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse at Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question, Peter, you all have pretty much unprecedented visibility sitting here today. And obviously, you've talked about adding 50% capacity on the DUV side, and that doesn't include any of the productivity benefits of the newer tools coming online. But at the same time, end demand is robust, both leading and lagging. So curious, when do you think things will ease up for you? Because it certainly sounds like it may not happen in 2022, could be pushed to 2023.

我想第一個問題是，彼得，今天坐在這裡的各位都具有前所未有的知名度。顯然，您談到了在 DUV 方面增加 50% 的容量，但這還不包括新工具上線帶來的任何生產力優勢。但同時，終端需求強勁，既有領先，也有落後。很好奇，您認為什麼時候事情會變得容易？因為這聽起來肯定不會在 2022 年發生，可能會推遲到 2023 年。

Yes. That's a good comment, C.J. I mean if you think about how we add capacity, it's basically 3 ways. One is to work on cycle time and on efficiencies in your production manufacturing space. That's what we're all doing, us and our suppliers are doing that. And I think that gives us a result that we can actually ship more now. And I would say, the first half of next year.

是的。這是一個很好的評論，C.J. 我的意思是，如果你想想我們如何增加容量，基本上有 3 種方法。一是致力於提高生產製造空間的週期時間和效率。這就是我們正在做的事情，我們和我們的供應商都在這樣做。我認為這給我們帶來了一個結果，即我們現在實際上可以運送更多貨物。我想說的是明年上半年。

The second is you have to buy equipment and you have to hire people. It has a longer lead time. It has a lead of about 12 to 18 months before you really get output. And then there's the third layer, which basically if you cannot put more people and more machines into the square footage that you have, you need to build, which is actually 2 to 3 years, yes? And I think this is where we are today. I think given what I said on the answer to the previous question, what I expect is that we will see billing activity starting in the supply chain because I think we need to add more capacity over the next 2 to 3 years because the numbers that you quoted were for 2025, yes?

第二，你必須購買設備，你必須僱用人員。它的交貨時間較長。在真正獲得產出之前，它有大約 12 到 18 個月的領先時間。然後是第三層，基本上如果你不能在你現有的面積內投入更多的人和機器，你就需要建設，這實際上需要 2 到 3 年的時間，對嗎？我想這就是我們今天的處境。我認為，根據我在回答上一個問題時所說的內容，我預計我們將看到供應鏈中開始計費活動，因為我認為我們需要在未來 2 到 3 年內增加更多產能，因為您引用的數字是 2025 年的，對嗎？

So it's going to be a gradual increase. One, by cycle-time reduction and all the efficiencies that is at the end of the supply chain. Two, more equipment, production equipment and people, which will have its effect in 2022, 2023. And then I think you will see indeed square footage being added in '23, '24. And that's how we get to that 1.5x and 2x in terms of unit capacity increase.

所以這將會是一個逐步增加的過程。一是透過縮短週期時間並提高供應鏈末端的所有效率。第二，更多的設備、生產設備和人員將在 2022 年、2023 年產生影響。然後我認為你會看到 2023 年、2024 年建築面積確實會增加。這就是我們如何實現單位容量增加 1.5 倍和 2 倍。

But then, of course, in the same time frame, we will ship more productive tools. So that, of course, will help to alleviate some of the wafer capacity shortages that we currently see. I hope that's clear.

但是，當然，在同一時間段內，我們將推出更有效率的工具。因此，這當然有助於緩解我們目前看到的一些晶圓產能短缺問題。我希望這很清楚。

Yes. No, that's very helpful. I guess as my follow-on question and to follow on to John's earlier question around DRAM, you highlighted very high utilization on the installed base and then a focus not only on node migration, but also the need to add capacity yet at the same time, your memory backlog and orders declined sequentially.

是的。不，這非常有幫助。我想作為我的後續問題，也是對約翰之前關於 DRAM 的問題的延續，您強調了安裝基礎的利用率非常高，然後不僅關注節點遷移，而且還需要增加容量，但與此同時，您的內存積壓和訂單卻連續下降。

It certainly sounds like that's a place where you could start to see positive momentum and drive even further growth into 2022. So I guess, how are you thinking about DRAM and the kind of timing of a potential inflection there for you guys?

這聽起來確實是一個可以開始看到積極勢頭並在 2022 年推動進一步增長的地方。所以我想，您如何看待 DRAM 以及你們那裡潛在的轉折時機？

Yes. I think again, like I said, we listen carefully to our customers. And we actually feel a significant level of confidence currently at our customers, all DRAM customers to be able to -- that they must add capacity. I mean they are talking about high- to mid-teens bit growth, but high teens close to 20% bit growth would mean that we just look at the utilization at this moment in time, which is very high.

是的。我再次思考，就像我說的，我們會認真傾聽客戶的意見。事實上，我們目前對我們的客戶，所有 DRAM 客戶都抱有相當大的信心——他們必須增加產能。我的意思是，他們談論的是高到中等的位數成長，但接近 20% 的高位數成長意味著我們只看此時的利用率，這是非常高的。

We cannot support high-teens bit growth with the current installed capacity, so then they need to add capacity, yes? And I think it's -- when you think about DRAM and you think about the underlying -- because DRAM is a derivative, Memory is derivate of the Logic growth. And when you see the very strong demand for Logic, both at the leading edge and at the mature side, has -- there is an effect on Memory. There is an effect on performance memory and on storage memory.

我們無法以目前的安裝容量支援高十幾歲的比特成長，所​​以他們需要增加容量，對嗎？我認為——當您考慮 DRAM 並考慮其底層時——因為 DRAM 是一種衍生品，記憶體是邏輯增長的衍生品。當你看到對邏輯的強烈需求時，無論是在前沿還是在成熟方面，都會對記憶體產生影響。對效能記憶體和儲存記憶體都有影響。

So looking at where we are today, the high utilization rates, let's assume if there is high-teens bit growth, we need to have capacity. So I fully understand the, let's say, positive momentum that our customers are seeing and the demand that they put on us for next year shipments.

因此，看看我們今天的狀況，高利用率，讓我們假設如果有高十幾歲的位元成長，我們就需要有容量。因此，我完全理解我們的客戶所看到的積極勢頭以及他們對我們明年出貨量的要求。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar of Cowen Co.

下一個問題來自 Cowen Co. 的 Krish Sankar。

I had 2 of them, too. First one, Peter, I understand you don't want to quantify next year. But when you look at your DUV sales, which have been very strong this year, is it fair to assume 2022 DUV sales should be higher than this year. And along the same thought process, how to think about Installed Base revenues in 2022 relative to this year? And then I had a quick follow-on.

我也有 2 個。首先，彼得，我知道你不想量化明年。但是，當您看到今年的 DUV 銷量非常強勁時，是否可以公平地假設 2022 年的 DUV 銷量應該高於今年。依照同樣的思考過程，如何看待 2022 年相對於今年的安裝基礎收入？然後我進行了快速的跟進。

I think, Roger, you can answer that.

羅傑，我想你可以回答這個問題。

Yes, Krish, if we -- if you look at that, I think what Peter said in the introduction to this call, I think what he said is, on the one hand, of course, additional capacity is being built. On the other hand, parts buffers that have been depleted this year in order to get to output, need to be filled back. So I think that was the basis for the statement that Peter made that our expectation is that next year we should see shipments at the level of this year in terms of -- for DPV.

是的，克里什，如果我們 - 如果你看一下，我認為彼得在這次電話會議的介紹中說過，我認為他說的是，一方面，當然正在建設額外的容量。另一方面，今年為了實現產出而耗盡的零件緩衝區需要重新填補。所以我認為這就是 Peter 所作聲明的基礎，我們預計明年 DPV 的出貨量將達到今年的水平。

In terms of Installed Base, you've seen in the Capital Markets Day that we're looking at a 12% CAGR until 2025 installed base. So I think that is a pretty good proxy to look at the CAGR from this year into next year.

就安裝基數而言，您在資本市場日看到，我們預計到 2025 年安裝基數的複合年增長率將達到 12%。因此我認為這是觀察今年到明年的複合年增長率的一個很好的指標。

Got it. Very helpful, Roger. And then just as a follow-up for you. You kind of highlighted an earlier question, think of the pushout as roughly EUR 300 million. Is it fair to assume it's all DPV? And is it a combo of [dry] and [FinFET] or is it all mostly immersion?

知道了。非常有幫助，羅傑。然後只是作為對您的後續跟進。您似乎強調了先前的一個問題，認為這次延期的金額約為 3 億歐元。假設這全都是 DPV 是否公平？它是 [乾式] 和 [FinFET] 的組合嗎，還是主要都是浸入式？

It's a combination, and is as DPV. So the EUR 300 million that I'm talking about is DPV and it's a combination of immersion and [dry] .

它是一個組合，並且是 DPV。所以我所說的 3 億歐元是 DPV，它是浸入式和 [乾式] 的結合。

And our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬‧夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

I just want to go back on the discussion on DUV. I mean clearly, your backlog has increased significantly. I'm trying to understand it, I guess, when you look at that relative to the capacity that you have in place manufacturing-wise, has that your ability to fulfill that demand, maybe extend into the second half of next year.

我只是想重新討論一下 DUV。我的意思是，顯然你的積壓工作已經大大增加了。我想理解的是，當你考慮到你現有的製造能力時，你是否有能力滿足這個需求，也許可以延續到明年下半年。

I think last quarter, we talked about maybe being able to kind of catch up to demand in the mid part of the year.

我認為上個季度我們討論過也許能夠在年中滿足需求。

Yes, if I understand your question correct, Joe. Yes, I think in that build-up of capacity that over time, which definitely the next year, will, of course, become more visible throughout the year. So it will be more visible in the second half of the year. That's also clear. And also because what Roger said earlier, I mean, we've actually depleted our safety and buffer stocks in 2021 to be able to supply our customers with everything that they wanted.

是的，如果我理解你的問題正確的話，喬。是的，我認為隨著時間的推移，產能的增加，當然在明年，全年都會變得更加明顯。因此，下半年這現象將會更加明顯。這也很清楚。而且正如羅傑之前所說，為了能夠向客戶提供他們想要的一切，我們實際上已經在 2021 年耗盡了我們的安全庫存和緩衝庫存。

But you can only do that once, and then you -- actually, if you want to actually have the same shipment pattern in '22 or at the same shipment output level as in '22 as in '21, you need to actually build that capacity, and that's what we're doing. So I think you will see that. And as I answered to a previous question, when we think about 1.5x DPV capacity, it will grow over time. So there will be more people hired in our supply chain. They will buy more machines, which they are actually doing. So this will come online as we go.

但你只能這樣做一次，然後你——實際上，如果你想在 2022 年真正擁有相同的出貨模式，或者在 2021 年擁有與 2022 年相同的出貨量輸出水平，你就需要真正建立這種產能，這就是我們正在做的事情。所以我想你會看到這一點。正如我回答之前的問題一樣，當我們考慮 1.5 倍 DPV 容量時，它會隨著時間的推移而增長。因此我們的供應鏈將會僱用更多的人。他們將購買更多的機器，事實上他們也正在這樣做。因此，這將隨著我們的進展而上線。

So yes, the assumption in our capacity capability in the second half of 2020 was higher than in the first half, that is a realistic one.

所以是的，我們對 2020 年下半年產能能力的假設高於上半年，這是現實的。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just a quick question on the puts and takes of gross margin in this quarter. I think clearly, Installed Base Management was ahead of plan and driven by upgrades, which I think a lot of those are software related that are higher margins. Were there some offsets there from just the higher supply chain or logistics costs we should be thinking about?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我簡單問一下本季毛利率的變動。我認為，顯然，安裝基礎管理已經超出了計劃，並且受到升級的推動，我認為其中許多都與軟體相關，利潤率更高。我們應該考慮更高的供應鏈或物流成本是否能帶來一些抵銷作用？

No, not really. I think if you look at the gross margin, I think Installed Base obviously is one element. I think clearly, also the -- on the immersion side, that was a positive in the gross margin if you compare Q3 to Q2.

不，不是真的。我認為如果你看一下毛利率，我認為安裝基礎顯然是一個因素。我認為，如果將第三季與第二季進行比較，那麼在沉浸感方面，毛利率顯然會呈現正態勢。

As we said before, in this quarter, you saw a meaningful number of 2050s in there, and we said that 2050 was accretive to gross margins. So that's definitely a help. Also more 3600s in there, although a little bit of that was offset by a slightly lower ASP than what you've seen in the past quarters on the 3400s. So it's that combination that got you from the 50.9% gross margin that we had last quarter to 51.7% this time.

正如我們之前所說，在本季度，您會看到 2050 的顯著數量，並且我們說 2050 會增加毛利率。所以這肯定是有幫助的。 其中 3600 的數量也較多，不過與上幾季 3400 相比，其平均售價略低，這在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。正是這種組合使得我們的毛利率從上一季的 50.9% 上升到了本季的 51.7%。

And our next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc of Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的亞歷山大‧彼得 (Aleksander Peterc)。

I'd like to come back a little bit on service and (inaudible) options, which obviously have been very strong. You highlighted EUR 300 million additional revenue that is not on your guidance versus what you were saying 3 months ago. So if you could tell us what is exactly driving this? Is it the additional demand for upgrades that you mentioned as a driver going forward? Is that already materializing in 2021?

我想稍微回顧一下服務和（聽不清楚）選項，它們顯然非常強大。您強調了 3 億歐元的額外收入，但這與您 3 個月前所說的不同，並不在您的預期之內。那麼，您能告訴我們究竟是什麼原因導致了這個現象嗎？您提到的額外升級需求是否是未來發展的動力？這會在 2021 年實現嗎？

Yes, it is a combination of both the service revenue being high and us increasingly, we talked about that extensively in the Capital Markets Day, finding models with the customer to bring more value to the customer. And in that way, boosting, if you like, the service revenue. So that's one dimension.

是的，這是服務收入高和我們不斷增長的結合，我們在資本市場日詳細討論了這一點，與客戶一起尋找模型，為客戶帶來更多價值。透過這種方式，如果你願意的話，就可以提高服務收入。這是一個維度。

But secondly, also upgrade potential. I mean everyone is screaming for capacity in that environment, if customers find a way to give us some machine time or reversely, we find a way to do the upgrades without taking too much machine time, and that's what we're putting a lot of emphasis on to really make the upgrades as demanding, as little machine time as possible, then there is a lot of demand in this environment to -- for upgrades.

其次，還有升級潛力。我的意思是，在那種環境下，每個人都在大聲呼喊容量，如果客戶找到一種方法給我們一些機器時間，或者相反，我們找到一種方法來進行升級而不需要太多的機器時間，這就是我們非常重視的，真正使升級盡可能的要求高，盡可能少的機器時間，那麼在這種環境下對升級的需求就很大。

So it's that combination that really has driven upgrades, as a matter of fact, throughout the entire year at this very high level. You might remember in Q1, we talked about a very high level of upgrades, and we said -- we talked about pull-ins and just signaling that we thought that, that would be at the detriment of upgrades that would happen in the remainder of the year. And that didn't happen. Also in the remainder of the year, upgrades were at a very, very high level because, again, we found ways with the customer to do it in a way that was not very intrusive, and therefore, giving value to the customer with the upgrades without ruining their process for too long.

事實上，正是這種組合真正推動了全年的升級，並使其保持在非常高的水平。您可能還記得，在第一季度，我們談到了非常高水平的升級，我們說過 - 我們談到了拉動，只是表示我們認為這將損害今年剩餘時間內的升級。但那並沒有發生。此外，在今年剩餘的時間裡，升級量處於非常高的水平，因為我們再次與客戶一起找到了一種不太具有侵入性的方式來進行升級，因此，透過升級為客戶帶來價值，而不會長時間破壞他們的流程。

And presumably that [trend] continues into '22 as well with this trend?

並推測這種趨勢也會持續到 2022 年？

Yes, that's true. But as Peter said, the customer continuously has to make this trade-off between, even if it's a nonintrusive way, it still is days and sometimes weeks of machine time. So they continuously have to make that trade-off. But in all likelihood, if we look at the upgrades that we also make available next year, we think the upgrade business next year should also be pretty healthy.

是的，確實如此。但正如彼得所說，客戶必須不斷地做出權衡，即使是採用非侵入式的方式，也仍然需要幾天甚至幾週的機器時間。因此他們必須不斷地做出這種權衡。但很有可能的是，如果我們看看明年也會提供的升級，我們認為明年的升級業務也應該相當健康。

Our next question comes from the line of Didier Scemama of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Didier Scemama。

Rather than me speaking on the inflections of the backlog or the near term, I just wanted to come back to the Capital Markets Day and just getting your clarification, at least helping us understand 2 points. So my first question is on 3D DRAM. I'm sure you're fully aware that all your competitors or peers, I should say, are talking about 3D DRAM mid-2025, which sort of doesn't jive well with what Martin told us at the CMD. So wanted to understand your side of the equation? And then I will come back for the second question after that.

我並不是想談論積壓問題或近期的變化，我只是想回到資本市場日並得到您的澄清，至少可以幫助我們理解 2 點。我的第一個問題是關於 3D DRAM 的。我確信您完全清楚，您的所有競爭對手或同行都在談論 2025 年中期的 3D DRAM，這與馬丁在 CMD 上告訴我們的不太一致。那麼想了解你這邊的狀況嗎？然後我會回來回答第二個問題。

Yes. D.J., that's a good question. When we talk about these things, I always try to look at reality and the facts. And the fact of the matter is that all our customers -- our DRAM customers are engaged with us on EUV, which actually, for some of the customers that they also talk about 3D DRAM, and I'll talk about that a little bit later. I'll refer to that a little bit later.

是的。 D.J.，這個問題問得很好。當我們談論這些事情時，我總是試著看清現實和事實。事實上，我們所有的客戶——我們的 DRAM 客戶都在與我們合作進行 EUV 研發，實際上，有些客戶也在談論 3D DRAM，我稍後會談到這個。我稍後會提到這一點。

Actually see ramping up EUV in '23, '24, which is dimensional scaling. On top of that, we have very significant discussions with DRAM customers on High-NA, which is the next level of dimensional scaling, and which actually, they're asking for introduction at the same timing as we have Logic [INA].

實際上，我們看到 EUV 在 23、24 年將得到提升，這是維度的縮放。除此之外，我們還與 DRAM 客戶就 High-NA 進行了非常重要的討論，這是維度縮放的下一個級別，實際上，他們要求與我們同時推出邏輯 [INA]。

So that dimensional scaling is what they're doing. And so I can only refer to what a CTO of one of our largest DRAM customers said, the DRAM is talked about as a concept. That's actually what he said, it is written. And it's a concept. It's not enough to say, yes, I see it enough to make it reality. That's how they think about this today. It's been in research for a long time. You might remember cross-point DRAM, that's a 3D structure. It's been around, and it's been part of research and their thought process for a long while, but it's not there.

所以他們所做的就是維度縮放。因此，我只能引用我們最大的 DRAM 客戶之一的 CTO 所說的話，DRAM 是作為一個概念來談論的。事實上，這就是他所說的，也是寫出來的。這是一個概念。僅僅說「是的，我看到了足夠多的東西，足以讓它成為現實」是不夠的。這就是他們今天對此事的看法。它已經被研究了很長時間了。您可能還記得交叉點 DRAM，它是一種 3D 結構。它已經存在，並且長期以來一直是研究和思考過程的一部分，但它並不存在。

So what is there is dimensional scaling, where they engage with us quite significantly on High-NA, which is the second half of this decade. That's reality. Now having said, you referred to some of our peers and I've also seen the Capital Markets presentations. It's my personal question is that it's a bit overhyped by our semiconductor equipment peers, which if I were them, I would probably do the same thing but it does not jive with what our customers are telling us.

那麼，存在著什麼維度縮放，他們在 High-NA 上與我們進行相當重要的互動，這是本世紀下半葉的事情。這就是現實。現在說了，您提到了我們的一些同行，我也看過資本市場演示。我個人的問題是，我們的半導體設備同行對此有點誇大其詞，如果我是他們，我可能會做同樣的事情，但這與我們的客戶告訴我們的不一致。

(inaudible) Second question, going back to the CMD as well and this slide from Martin. There's been a lot of questions and debate with the investor community as to the 2-nanometer node and why they would be a flat UV layer [count]. I think we all well understand the drop at 1.5 due to High-NA, but maybe less so the 2-nanometer flat UV layer count. And some are worried that this is due to gate-all-around. So can you just clarify that here, you're talking about node shrink with no UV layer count increase? Or is it, in fact, no shrink or no shrink from 3 to 2, just a sort of marketing name for gate-all-around.

（聽不清楚）第二個問題，回到 CMD 和 Martin 的這張投影片。投資者群體對 2 奈米節點以及為什麼它們會是平坦的紫外線層 [count] 提出了很多疑問和爭論。我想我們都很理解由於高數值孔徑導致的 1.5 的下降，但對於 2 奈米平坦 UV 層數的理解可能較少。有些人擔心這是由於環繞閘極所致。那麼，您能否在這裡澄清一下，您談論的是節點縮小而 UV 層數沒有增加？或者事實上，它並沒有縮小，或者沒有從 3 縮小到 2，只是環網技術的一種行銷名稱。

Yes. I think, D.J., if you talk about gate-all-around, first off, I think it's important to note that fundamentally, gate-all-around or FinFET doesn't drive a difference in litho intensity. So there is no fundamental shift in litho intensity if you move from one architecture, if you like, to the other.

是的。我認為，D.J.，如果您談論環柵，首先，我認為重要的是要注意，從根本上來說，環柵或 FinFET 不會導致光刻強度的差異。因此，如果您從一種架構轉移到另一種架構，光刻強度不會發生根本性的變化。

But it is the case that customers look at a new node and say, is this a node where I'm going to combine device architecture innovation with significant shrink. And there, you see -- and if you just look at the history, if you look at, for instance, FinFET, you saw that some customers decided to -- when they introduced the new device architecture to be very conservative on shrink, some others didn't. And actually combines device architecture with shrink. So we've been conservative in our projection there.

但實際情況是，客戶看到一個新節點後會說，這是我要將設備架構創新與顯著縮小相結合的節點嗎？而且，你看——如果你看看歷史，比如說，如果你看看 FinFET，你會發現一些客戶決定——當他們引入新的設備架構時，在縮小尺寸方面非常保守，而其他一些客戶則沒有。並且實際上將設備架構與縮小結合在一起。因此我們的預測一直比較保守。

So we know there is one large customer at this node that you're referring to is indeed going to gate-all-around. You also know that another customer is actually doing that at a node before that. And therefore, the assumption that, that might -- at that particular note, leads to a conservative estimate in terms of layer count. That's the background of that slide in that number.

因此，我們知道，您所提到的這個節點上有一個大客戶確實會採用環網技術。您還知道另一個客戶實際上在此之前的節點上執行了此操作。因此，假設，這可能 - 在那個特定的註釋中，導致對層數的保守估計。這就是該數字中那張幻燈片的背景。

And our next question comes from the line of Stephane at ODDO BHF.

我們的下一個問題來自 ODDO BHF 的 Stephane。

Actually, I wanted to come back on your forecast for 55 EUV tools for next year. I understand it's a goal for production. But given the difficult you are witnessing in the supply chain like everyone else, actually. How confident are you that you will be able to transform this production goal into revenue next year?

實際上，我想回顧一下您對明年 55 種 EUV 工具的預測。我理解這是生產的目標。但實際上，考慮到你們和其他人一樣，在供應鏈中遇到的困難。您對明年能夠將此生產目標轉化為收入有多大信心？

Yes. That's a good question, Stephane. I mean we are engaged -- we are encountering just like any other industrial company and even non-industrial companies, they are encountering issues with respect to component shortages, which is what we're also -- not we personally, but -- or our asset company, but in our supply chain and our supply chain does encounter these shortages.

是的。這是個好問題，史蒂芬。我的意思是，我們正在參與——我們和其他任何工業公司甚至非工業公司一樣，都遇到了零件短缺的問題，這也是我們——不是我們個人，而是——或者我們的資產公司，但在我們的供應鏈中，我們的供應鏈確實遇到了這些短缺。

And of course, we need all the modules from our suppliers to make an EUV tool. So yes, this is a concern for, I think, everybody. Now the way that we deal with it is you have to think about this is that if we identify, and that's what we do together with our supply chain, we identify shortages of certain components. We actually are very active in, let's say, exchanging those shortages and the need for those components with our customers.

當然，我們需要供應商提供的所有模組來製造 EUV 工具。是的，我認為這是每個人都關心的問題。現在我們處理這個問題的方式是，你必須考慮這一點，如果我們識別，這就是我們與供應鏈一起做的事情，我們就會識別某些組件的短缺。實際上，我們非常積極地與客戶交換這些短缺產品和對這些零件的需求。

So although these components are not supplied by the customers of our suppliers, but we are the customer. We are still -- you could say the in-between to make sure that we can highlight to our customers, the chip manufacturers, that they need to produce these chips. Because if we cannot get the modules, then we cannot make the machines, so that the capacity shortage, that's obviously, will stay as is.

因此，雖然這些組件不是由我們的供應商的客戶供應的，但我們就是客戶。我們仍然——你可以說處於中間狀態，以確保我們可以向我們的客戶，晶片製造商強調，他們需要生產這些晶片。因為如果我們無法獲得模組，那麼我們就無法製造機器，因此產能短缺顯然將持續下去。

I mean we need to add capacity and maybe ship machines to be able to deal with the current shortage. So when we have those discussions with our chip making customers. I mean we get a longer response, as you can imagine, because basically, we want to ship our machines to their installed base. So there is this loop that we are closing. And I think that is happening as we speak.

我的意思是我們需要增加產能，甚至運送機器來應對當前的短缺。因此，當我們與晶片製造客戶進行這些討論時。我的意思是，正如您所想像的，我們會得到更長的回應，因為基本上，我們希望將我們的機器運送到他們的安裝基地。這就是我們正在關閉的循環。我認為，就在我們說話的此刻，這種情況正在發生。

Now is there some delay? Yes, of course, there is a delay because there's communication between our suppliers, ASML and the chip making companies, and to see how we can close the loop. That leads to a delay, and this is a delay that we're seeing. But I think in the end, we get it resolved, at least we get it resolved. So that's why we are still confident, that's what 2022, we will be able to actually ship 55 units.

現在有延遲嗎？是的，當然存在延遲，因為我們的供應商、ASML 和晶片製造公司之間需要溝通，以了解如何完成整個流程。這會導致延遲，這就是我們所看到的延遲。但我認為最終我們會解決這個問題，至少我們會解決這個問題。所以這就是我們仍然有信心的原因，到 2022 年，我們將能夠實際出貨 55 台。

Now are there going to be some fast shipments by the end of the year, depending on these let's say, communication delays to get things resolved? Maybe. That's too early to tell. But I think the 55 shipments with our capability to be the intermediate between our supply chain and the chip makers, I think that's something that we feel comfortable with.

現在，到今年年底是否會有一些快速發貨，這取決於這些溝通延遲來解決問題嗎？或許。現在下結論還為時過早。但我認為，憑藉我們作為供應鏈和晶片製造商之間的中間環節的能力，55批貨物的發貨量讓我們感到滿意。

Okay. And looking still at 2022 about the gross margin evolution. What are the elements that we have to take into account when we try to model 2022 gross margin evolution, notably on the EUV services side, which has been at much lower profitability than the group?

好的。展望2022年，我們仍將關注毛利率的變動。當我們嘗試模擬 2022 年毛利率變化時，我們必須考慮哪些因素，特別是在 EUV 服務方面，其獲利能力遠低於集團？

Yes. I think the key things to look at is one, you mentioned is EUV gross margin. I think we've said that you should expect that, that continues to grow until we reach around 50% in the '24, '25 time frame, that's the number that we've given. We've also told you that we're approaching 30% this year. So that's kind of the buildup that you see there. So that's one element to consider there.

是的。我認為需要關注的關鍵因素之一是您提到的 EUV 毛利率。我想我們已經說過，你應該預料到，這個數字會繼續成長，直到我們在 24、25 年的時間範圍內達到 50% 左右，這就是我們給出的數字。我們也告訴過您，今年我們的成長率將接近 30%。這就是您在那裡看到的積累。這是需要考慮的因素。

I think the second element is the fact that next year is going to be 3600Ds only, right? So you won't have Cs you would only have Ds in next year. And the third element is that you're going to see a little bit of impact on the 2050, right? So the 2050 immersion tool, of course, will be more prevalent in next year than this year. So those, I would say, are probably the main element to look into for the gross margin in '22.

我認為第二個因素是明年只會推出 3600D，對嗎？因此，明年你不會獲得 C，而只會獲得 D。第三個因素是，你會看到它對 2050 年產生一點影響，對嗎？因此，2050 浸入式工具當然會在明年比今年更受歡迎。因此，我想說，這些可能是 22 年毛利率需要考慮的主要因素。

But you expect an improvement in gross margin, right?

但您預計毛利率會提高，對嗎？

I think I only mentioned the things that improve the gross margin. So I think that's a reasonable assumption, but how much of that, stay tuned. And in 3 months' time we're going to give you more details on that. I think it is realistic to assume that you'll see an improvement based on the 3 drivers that I just mentioned.

我想我只提到了提高毛利率的事情。所以我認為這是一個合理的假設，但具體有多少，請繼續關注。三個月後，我們將向您提供更多詳細資訊。我認為，基於我剛才提到的 3 個驅動因素，您可以現實地認為您會看到改進。

Our next question comes from the line of Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

Apologies for imposing on you a third French accent in a row. I guess it must be done to try to be (inaudible) .

抱歉，我連續第三次灌輸法語口音。我想必須要這樣做才能做到（聽不清楚）。

We are used to French accents, Pierre. So it doesn't matter. I mean, as you know, we have 2 colleague Board members who are French. So we actually used to it.

我們已經習慣了法國口音，皮埃爾。所以沒關係。我的意思是，如你所知，我們有兩位法國董事會成員。所以我們其實已經習慣了。

I do remember that, Peter. So I have a pretty specific question. I hope it's the right forum to ask it. When we look like in Logic and foundry, I mean foundry, when your clients have moved to EUV, we've clearly seen that they've made a very, very full reuse of all the DUV tools because EUV layers were basically added to the DUV layers of the previous node.

我確實記得，彼得。所以我有一個非常具體的問題。我希望這是一個適合提問的論壇。當我們在 Logic 和代工廠中時，我的意思是代工廠，當您的客戶轉向 EUV 時，我們清楚地看到他們非常非常充分地重用了所有 DUV 工具，因為 EUV 層基本上被添加到前一個節點的 DUV 層中。

And the question I have is for your large IDM clients, Logic clients, these guys have pushed DUV one step further than others with the 10-nanometer node. And then as they move towards the node that they rename for, they're going to introduce EUV potentially in a more aggressive way, replacing things they've done with DUV in the previous node with EUV, which kind of would mean that maybe they would be buying more EUV tools in this transition, but also (inaudible) excess DUV tools in the process.

我的問題是，對於你們的大型 IDM 客戶、Logic 客戶，這些人在 10 奈米節點上將 DUV 推向了比其他人更進一步的水平。然後，當他們轉向重命名的節點時，他們可能會以更積極的方式引入 EUV，用 EUV 取代他們在前一個節點中使用 DUV 完成的工作，這意味著他們可能會在此過渡期間購買更多的 EUV 工具，但在此過程中也會（聽不清楚）購買多餘的 DUV 工具。

And so I was just wondering if that's the case, if you have visibility on that and if it could impact at some point for a short period of time, the EUV demand.

所以我只是想知道如果情況確實如此，您是否了解這一點，以及它是否會在短時間內對 EUV 需求產生影響。

Yes. Yes. I think you are right that the number of EUV tools has gone up because EUV layers have gone up. We don't see any access in DPV for a few reasons. One, the product that is currently being produced with those DPV layers is still in very high demand. And number two, if you're an IDM, you also like to move into the foundry space, you'd better make sure you have those tools. Because foundry is not only about 7-nanometer. It's about 0.18 micron or even above that, two 7 nanometers. So it's the whole thing.

是的。是的。我認為您說得對，EUV 工具的數量增加是因為 EUV 層數增加了。由於某些原因，我們在 DPV 中看不到任何存取權限。首先，目前採用這些 DPV 層生產的產品仍需求量很大。第二，如果你是IDM，你也想進入代工領域，你最好確保你擁有這些工具。因為代工不只涉及7奈米。它大約是0.18微米，甚至更高，兩個7奈米。這就是全部內容。

So I would definitely not get rid of that excess DPV. I would start using it. So we haven't seen that, and it makes sense that we haven't seen it. Is that clear, Pierre?

所以我絕對不會擺脫多餘的 DPV。我會開始使用它。所以我們沒有看到這一點，而且我們沒有看到這一點也是有道理的。明白了嗎，皮埃爾？

Our next question comes from the line of Sandeep Deshpande of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

Maybe I'll ask you just a question on the industry. I mean, Peter, you saw a very strong increase in your orders in this cycle in Q4 last year, you saw a big step-up. And I mean, even today now, there are shortages in the semiconductor industry. How are you -- I mean, given that you have that visibility in terms of the wafers flowing through your equipment as much, have you seen additional wafers flowing today versus, say, Q4 last year through your equipment to say that there is much more capacity today versus in Q4 last year?

也許我會問你一個關於這個行業的問題。我的意思是，彼得，你看到去年第四季這個週期的訂單量出現了非常強勁的成長，你看到了巨大的進步。我的意思是，即使在今天，半導體行業仍然存在短缺。您好嗎？我的意思是，鑑於您對流經您設備的晶圓數量有如此清晰的了解，您是否看到今天與去年第四季度相比，流經您設備的晶圓數量有所增加，從而說明今天的產能比去年第四季度高得多？

And why are we still -- there are such big supply chain bottlenecks, including for yourselves and for many others in the -- and particularly related to the semiconductor industry. And I have one quick follow-up (inaudible).

為什麼我們仍然存在如此大的供應鏈瓶頸，包括對你們自己以及對半導體行業的許多其他人來說，特別是與半導體行業相關的。 我還有一個快速的後續問題（聽不清楚）。

Yes, Sandeep. I mean you've been around a long time and you asked the million-dollar question. So -- and the real answer is we don't know. We have some indications and some ideas. And yes, you are absolutely right, the wafer out capacity today is a big -- is a lot larger than it was in Q4 2020. That's true. And still, we see these shortages. Now I spoke to a very large customer and basically asked the same question.

是的，桑迪普。我的意思是你已經存在很久了，並且你問了一個價值百萬美元的問題。所以——真正的答案是我們不知道。我們有一些跡象和一些想法。是的，您說得完全正確，今天的晶圓產能很大——比 2020 年第四季大得多。確實如此。但我們仍然看到這些短缺。現在我與一位大客戶交談並問了同樣的問題。

And I actually said, Peter, we don't know either. Because somehow we haven't been able to connect all the dots that actually are the underlying drivers for this demand. There's some rumors out there that the brokers and the distributors are playing as a devious role here because they stock up all the inventory and drive up to the prices. But I don't believe that, that much, again there will be some of it.

我實際上說，彼得，我們也不知道。 因為不知何故，我們無法將所有真正驅動這項需求的因素連結起來。 有傳言說，經紀人和分銷商在這裡扮演著不正當的角色，因為他們囤積了所有庫存並提高了價格。但我不相信，那麼多，會再有一些。

But even for the very large customers, like the smartphone makers that are direct customers to the semiconductor makers, have nothing to do with the distributors, yet they are in shortage also. So I think it is the underestimation of the very fast application of everything has to do with mobility, sensor technology, io2 type applications that we completely underestimated that tens of thousands of companies are making use of the capabilities of the cloud, of the high-performance computing in the data centers, of 5G and they are creating solutions, services, product that actually need, in the end, the compute power of the data centers, but also, let's say, the 90 and the 0.18-micron technology that's 20 years or 30 years old.

但即使對於非常大的客戶，例如半導體製造商的直接客戶智慧型手機製造商，與分銷商沒有任何關係，但他們也存在短缺。因此，我認為我們低估了與移動性、感測器技術、io2 類型應用相關的一切技術的快速應用，我們完全低估了成千上萬的公司正在利用雲端運算、資料中心高效能運算和 5G 的功能，他們正在創建最終真正需要資料中心運算能力的解決方案、服務和產品，而且，比如說，90 和 0.18 微米技術，這些技術已經有 20 年的歷史了 20 年。

This is what's happening today. And we haven't connected the dots. And that's happening today because that's why you see it everywhere. Take a car, if you look at the number of sensors that are currently in an advanced driver-assisted system in a car, it just exploded. And they also -- and they need -- and other device they need -- and then in power (inaudible) , they need a microcontroller. And that's just a car. I mean, it's everywhere. And this is where I think we are struggling to really understand the issues.

這就是今天正在發生的事情。我們還沒有把這些點連接起來。而這種現象至今仍在發生，因為這就是我們隨處可見它的原因。以汽車為例，如果你看一下目前汽車先進駕駛輔助系統中的感測器數量，你會發現它的數量呈現爆炸性成長。而且他們還需要其他設備，然後在電源方面（聽不清楚），他們需要一個微控制器。那隻是一輛車。我的意思是，它無所不在。我認為這正是我們難以真正理解的問題所在。

I know one thing that the demand for mature, for DPV dry has by far exceeded our expectations where we are today. And yes, some of it will be panic ordering by the customers of our customers. But it's too big to just be panic ordering. So there is this underlying trend that we really don't understand fully. An as a person, I have the idea, it's the combination of the cloud, the high-power compute capabilities in the data centers, the fact that we're rolling out 5G and the fact that we have this distributed computing field that is growing almost exponentially in terms of services and products.

我知道一件事，對成熟的 DPV 乾式產品的需求已經遠遠超出了我們目前的預期。是的，其中一些是我們客戶的客戶的恐慌性訂購。但它太大了，不能只是恐慌性訂購。因此，存在著我們尚未完全了解的潛在趨勢。就我個人而言，我認為它是雲端運算、資料中心的高功率運算能力、我們正在推出的 5G 以及我們擁有的分散式運算領域的結合，該領域的服務和產品幾乎呈指數級增長。

And the latter, we don't fully understand. And unfortunately, our customers don't understand it either, as I was told. So I'm sorry, I'm just going to add to the cloud of fog that we're currently seeing, but I cannot give you as a very clear answer.

而對於後者，我們還不完全了解。不幸的是，據我所知，我們的客戶也不理解這一點。所以很抱歉，我只是想為我們目前看到的迷霧增添一些色彩，但我無法給你一個非常明確的答案。

I mean just actually a follow-up from that, and then (inaudible) has also previous questions on your Capital Markets Day. I mean there were some investors disappointed about your longer-term guidance. I mean, is it that your famous model is not factoring in some of these factors you mentioned earlier just now. And that is why you are guiding to what you are guiding in 2030 and maybe you will change that view over time because your model is probably not taking into consideration some of these factors which have changed [25%] to such a large extent from your previous guidance and then whereas 2030 is quite a long way away as yet.

我的意思實際上只是對此的後續問題，然後（聽不清楚）還有您在資本市場日之前提出的問題。我的意思是，一些投資者對您的長期指導感到失望。我的意思是，您著名的模型是否沒有考慮到您剛才提到的一些因素。這就是為什麼您要對 2030 年做出指導，但也許隨著時間的推移您會改變這種觀點，因為您的模型可能沒有考慮到其中一些因素，這些因素與您之前的指導相比發生了 [25%] 的巨大變化，而 2030 年目前還很遙遠。

I mean, you're very perceptive. This is exactly the question I asked to our strategic marketing group is that there are things going on -- I mean, if our customers tell us, we cannot connect the dots because we have this question mark, you can imagine that -- the question I asked to our strategic marketing group is you need to find that level of information that will enable us to basically connect more dots and put that in the model. You're absolutely correct.

我的意思是，你非常敏銳。這正是我向我們的策略行銷小組提出的問題，即正在發生的事情——我的意思是，如果我們的客戶告訴我們，我們無法將這些點連接起來，因為我們有這個問號，你可以想像——我向我們的戰略營銷小組提出的問題是，你需要找到那個級別的信息，使我們能夠從根本上連接更多的點並將其模型中。你完全正確。

Our model is based on what we know and what we know as historical trends, but our model is not built to be, let's say, to actually predict the future. It can only predict the future based on the parameters that we know, that we have put in the model. But the parameters that we don't know and that are changing the world as we speak, are of course, not in there. And it's exactly what I wanted our strategic marketing group to do. So but we told you what we know, not what some crystal ball might have told us. I mean...

我們的模型是基於我們已知的知識和已知的歷史趨勢，但我們的模型並不是為了真正預測未來而建立的。它只能根據我們已知的、輸入模型的參數來預測未來。但是，我們不知道的、正在改變世界的參數當然不在其中。這正是我希望我們的策略行銷團隊所做的事情。但我們告訴您我們所知道的，而不是水晶球可能告訴我們的。我是說...

Sandeep, I think I made it perfectly clear when I introduced the model. I think the base is an external source, right? It's external numbers in terms of were external source to see the semiconductor market goes. So you might look at it and say, we think it could grow faster based on the developments that we just talked about, but that was the starting point. And then we also said that we had a number of estimates in there that some refer to as conservative, right?

Sandeep，我認為我在介紹該模型時已經說得非常清楚了。我認為基地是外部來源，對嗎？就外部數據而言，它是了解半導體市場走向的外部來源。所以你可能會說，我們認為根據我們剛才談到的發展，它可能會成長得更快，但這只是起點。然後我們也說，我們有一些估計，有些人認為是保守的，對嗎？

We talked about litho intensity being at the same level of 2025. Some say that's conservative. That's the assumption that we've applied. We've looked at a market share that doesn't move from 2025. Again, some people would say with further advancement of EUV, High-NA, et cetera, your market share should continue to grow in terms of the total share in the pie.

我們討論過光刻強度將與 2025 年保持同一水平。有人說這是保守的。這就是我們所應用的假設。我們已經看到了從 2025 年開始不會發生變化的市場份額。同樣，有些人會說，隨著 EUV、高 NA 等方面的進一步發展，您的市場份額應該會繼續增長（就總體份額而言）。

So I think we've given the assumptions, some refer to those assumptions as conservative, but that's the background, and that's the basis for the model.

所以我認為我們已經給了假設，有些人認為這些假設是保守的，但這是背景，也是模型的基礎。

But they are all consequences of our understanding of what we currently see. I mean we didn't see a specific reason to what Roger said to increase our market share or to increase the litho intensity much because there's so much going on, which we don't understand fully yet.

但它們都是我們對當前所見事物的理解的結果。我的意思是，我們並沒有看到羅傑所說的增加我們的市場份額或增加光刻強度的具體原因，因為有很多事情正在發生，我們還沒有完全理解。

And it's [9] years out.

現在已經過去 [9] 年了。

And that's quite a long way out. So yes, you are right. I think in 1 or 2 years' time, we have some more intelligence. We can put it into our model parameters, and we'll probably see a different outcome.

這還有很長的路要走。是的，你是對的。我認為，一兩年後，我們會獲得更多情報。我們可以將其放入我們的模型參數中，我們可能會看到不同的結果。

And that last question will come from the line of Francois Bouvignies of UBS.

最後一個問題來自瑞銀的 Francois Bouvignies。

Sorry for the extra French accent. On the -- I just have 2 quick questions. The first one is on the, maybe related to what you said, Peter, around what we don't understand about the demand. When I look at your China exposure, which is like 10% this quarter, 17% last quarter.

抱歉，我的法語口音有點重。關於——我只有兩個簡單的問題。第一個問題可能與您所說的有關，彼得，關於我們不了解的需求。當我看到你們在中國的投資金額時，本季是 10%，上個季度是 17%。

And if I assume that you don't have any [AUV] in China, from local base China I'm talking, and so do you think -- what is the risk that with all that's going on in China in terms of uncertainty around procurement of tools in the future and also the local push. Is there any effect of pulling that you would expect maybe coming from China and is driving the demand particularly strong on the DPV side, obviously? And I have a quick follow-up after.

如果我假設你們在中國沒有任何 [AUV]，我說的是來自中國本地的基地，你也這麼認為——考慮到中國目前發生的所有事情，就未來工具採購和本地推動的不確定性而言，風險是什麼。您是否預期會出現來自中國的拉動效應，而這種效應顯然會推動 DPV 方面的需求特別強勁？之後我會進行快速跟進。

Yes. Yes, that's a good question. I think generally, I would say, our local Chinese customers follow their capacity expansion road map quite accurately. So what we're seeing today is actually a result of what they told us also last year. Now having said that, they're also reacting, of course, to the local chip shortage. So whenever they have an opportunity to put more machines into their factory, they will do that. So I think for the large capacity expansion plans, they just follow plan.

是的。是的，這是個好問題。我認為總體而言，我們的中國本地客戶相當準確地遵循了他們的產能擴張路線圖。因此，我們今天所看到的情況實際上是他們去年告訴我們的結果。話雖如此，他們當然也在對當地的晶片短缺做出反應。因此，只要有機會在工廠裡投入更多機器，他們就會這麼做。所以我認為對於大規模產能擴張計劃，他們只是按照計劃進行。

For the shorter term, anything that we can pull in that they ask for a pull-in. But that is, I think, more driven by the current demand in the market than by any strategic reasoning. The strategic reason is more the total capacity that they want to build over next couple of years. And that actually has been pretty stable or pretty accurate also in terms of execution.

就短期而言，只要他們要求，我們就可以引進任何東西。但我認為這更多的是由當前市場需求驅動，而不是由任何策略推理驅動。戰略原因更多的是他們希望在未來幾年內建造的總產能。從執行角度來看，這其實也相當穩定或相當準確。

Okay. Makes sense. And maybe the last one is on -- when you talk about the upgrades going into 2022 that may be strong depending on the downtime your customers are giving you. I imagine your customers today, they don't know how much downtime there will be in 2022 because who knows what's going to be the demand. So my question is, if we assume upgrades picking up next year, is there a risk to your [DPV] product shipments as well as you know you increased your capacity significantly maybe in some cases, with upgrades. How should we think about the relation between the 2 (inaudible) upgrades and your products?

好的。有道理。也許最後一個是 - 當您談論到 2022 年的升級時，這可能會很強勁，具體取決於您的客戶給您的停機時間。我想像一下，今天的客戶不知道 2022 年會有多少停機時間，因為誰知道需求會是什麼。所以我的問題是，如果我們假設明年升級會加快，那麼您的 [DPV] 產品出貨量是否有風險，同時您知道在某些情況下，透過升級您可能會大幅提高產能。我們該如何看待這兩次（聽不清楚）升級與您的產品之間的關係？

Yes, I think you really need to look at the upgrades as a kind of a fast incremental addition to your capacity. And the machines that they're buying is really driven by the more medium- to long-term view that they have on the capacity needs. So I think one does not cannibalize the other in the demand situation where we are today. We need both.

是的，我認為您確實需要將升級視為一種對您能力的快速增量增加。他們購買的機器實際上是由他們對產能需求的中長期觀點所驅動的。因此我認為，在目前的需求情勢下，一個因素不會蠶食另一個因素。我們兩者都需要。

All right. Thank you. If you are unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。如果您無法接通此電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。現在，我謹代表 ASML 感謝大家今天的參加。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes the ASML 2021 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。 ASML 2021 年第三季財務業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。