艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2022 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on July 20, 2022. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn over the call to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2022 年 7 月 20 日舉行的 ASML 2022 年第二季財務業績電話會議。 (操作員指示) 現在，我想將電話轉給 Skip Miller 先生。先生，請繼續。

Yes. Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2022 second quarter results.

是的。謝謝您，接線生。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink；以及我們的財務長 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是ASML 2022年第二季業績。

The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

此次通話時間為 60 分鐘，問題將依照收到的順序進行解答。此次電話會議也透過 asml.com 進行網路現場直播。管理層開場白的記錄和電話會議的重播將在本次電話會議結束後不久在我們的網站上提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。

For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement, contained in today's press release and presentation, found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和演示文稿中包含的安全港聲明，該聲明可在我們的網站 asml.com 上找到，也可以在 ASML 的 20-F 表年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2022 results conference call. I hope all of you and your families are still healthy and safe. And before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide you with an overview and some commentary on the second quarter 2022, as well as provide our views of the coming quarters.

謝謝你，斯基普。歡迎大家，感謝您參加我們的 2022 年第二季業績電話會議。我希望你們所有人和你們的家人依然健康、平安。在我們開始問答環節之前，羅傑和我想向大家概述一下 2022 年第二季度的情況並發表一些評論，同時闡述我們對未來幾季的看法。

And Roger will start with a review of our second quarter 2022 financial performance and some added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook.

羅傑將首先回顧我們 2022 年第二季的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表一些補充評論，而我將在介紹結束時對當前的商業環境和我們未來的業務前景發表一些補充評論。

Roger?

羅傑？

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the second quarter financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the third quarter of 2022. Net sales came in at EUR 5.4 billion, slightly above our guidance.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第二季度的財務業績，然後對 2022 年第三季提供指導。淨銷售額為 54 億歐元，略高於我們的預期。

We shipped 14 EUV systems and recognized EUR 2 billion revenue from 12 EUV systems this quarter. Net system sales of EUR 4.1 billion, which was driven by Logic at 71% and remaining 29% from Memory.

本季我們出貨了 14 台 EUV 系統，並從 12 台 EUV 系統實現了 20 億歐元的收入。淨系統銷售額為 41 億歐元，其中邏輯業務佔 71%，其餘 29% 來自記憶體業務。

Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.3 billion above guidance. Gross margin for the quarter came in at 49.1%, which is at the lower end of our guidance, primarily due to increasing inflationary costs.

本季安裝基礎管理銷售額比預期高出 13 億歐元。本季毛利率為 49.1%，處於我們預期的低端，主要原因是通膨成本增加。

On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 789 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 222 million, as guided. Net income in Q2 was EUR 1.4 billion, representing 26.0% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 3.54.

在營運費用方面，研發費用為 7.89 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用為 2.22 億歐元，符合預期。第二季淨收入為 14 億歐元，佔淨銷售額的 26.0%，每股收益為 3.54 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 4.4 billion. Moving to the order book. Q2 net system bookings came in at a record EUR 8.5 billion, reflecting the continued strong customer demand for both the advanced and mature nodes.

轉向資產負債表。截至第二季末，我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資總額為 44 億歐元。移至訂單簿。第二季淨系統預訂達到創紀錄的 85 億歐元，反映出客戶對先進和成熟節點的需求持續強勁。

Strong order intake of EUR 5.4 billion for EUV 0.33 NA and EUV 0.55 NA system and EUR 3.1 billion for non-EUV systems.

EUV 0.33 NA 和 EUV 0.55 NA 系統的訂單金額強勁，達到 54 億歐元，非 EUV 系統的訂單金額達到 31 億歐元。

Total net system bookings was driven by Logic, 60% of the bookings, and Memory accounting for the remaining 40%.

總淨系統預訂量由邏輯驅動，佔預訂量的 60%，記憶體佔剩餘的 40%。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the third quarter of 2022. We are experiencing increasing supply chain constraints, which resulted in delayed system starts and requires us to increase the number of fast shipments in Q3, in order to supply our customers with systems in production as quickly as possible.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2022 年第三季的預期。我們正面臨越來越多的供應鏈限制，這導致系統啟動延遲，並要求我們在第三季增加快速出貨數量，以便盡快向客戶提供生產中的系統。

With more fast shipments planned in the quarter, it will increase the amount of revenues delayed to subsequent quarters.

由於本季計劃有更多快速發貨，因此將增加延遲到後續季度的收入金額。

We expect Q3 total net sales to be between EUR 5.1 billion and EUR 5.4 billion. This excludes around EUR 1.1 billion of net delay revenue for Q3 as a result of more fast shipments at the end of Q3 than at the end of Q2. We expect our Q3 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 1.4 billion.

我們預計第三季總淨銷售額將在 51 億歐元至 54 億歐元之間。這還不包括第三季末快速出貨量比第二季末更多而導致的第三季約 11 億歐元的淨延遲收入。我們預計第三季安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 14 億歐元。

Gross margin for Q3 is expected to be between 49% and 50%, similar to prior quarter. The expected R&D expenses for Q3 are around EUR 810 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at around EUR 235 million. Our estimated 2022 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 15% and 16%.

預計第三季毛利率在49%至50%之間，與上一季持平。第三季預計研發費用約 8.1 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用預計約 2.35 億歐元。我們預計 2022 年年化有效稅率將在 15% 至 16% 之間。

In Q2, ASML paid a final dividend of EUR 3.17 per ordinary share. Together with the interim dividend paid in 2021, this results in a total dividend for 2021 of EUR [5.15] per ordinary share. We plan to grow our dividend and will move from a biannual to a quarterly dividend payout, starting in Q3 this year.

第二季度，ASML 支付了每股普通股 3.17 歐元的末期股息。加上 2021 年支付的中期股息，2021 年每股普通股的總股息為 [5.15] 歐元。我們計劃增加股息，從今年第三季開始，股息支付方式將從每半年一次改為每季一次。

This will provide more timely return of cash to our investors and more evenly balance our cash across the year. First quarterly interim dividend over 2022 will be EUR 1.37 per ordinary share and will be made payable on August 12, 2022.

這將為我們的投資者提供更及時的現金回報，並使我們全年的現金更加均衡。 2022 年第一季中期股利為每股普通股 1.37 歐元，將於 2022 年 8 月 12 日支付。

In Q2 2022, we repurchased around 2.3 million shares for a total amount of around EUR 1.2 billion. Total shares bought underneath 2021-23 program until end of Q2 is around 12.4 million shares for a total amount of around EUR 7.9 billion.

2022 年第二季度，我們回購了約 230 萬股，總金額約 12 億歐元。截至第二季末，根據 2021-23 計畫購買的股票總數約為 1,240 萬股，總金額約為 79 億歐元。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, revenue and profitability for the quarter basically came within guidance. The expected sales in Q3 are to be at similar guided range as Q2 as increasing supply constraints drive more [fast] shipments and delay revenue [addition] to subsequent quarters.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的，本季的營收和獲利能力基本上符合預期。由於供應限制的增加推動了更多（快速）出貨量並將收入（增加）推遲到隨後的幾個季度，因此第三季度的預期銷售額將與第二季度處於相似的指導範圍。

Looking at the more near-term market dynamics, we see a couple of mixed messages. Some customers are indicating they are seeing signs of slowing down -- or slowing demand in certain consumer-driven market segments, primarily PCs and smartphones. Other market segments like high-performance computing and automotive are still seeing strong demand.

從近期的市場動態來看，我們看到了一些混合的訊息。一些客戶表示，他們看到了放緩的跡象——或者說某些消費者驅動的市場領域（主要是個人電腦和智慧型手機）的需求正在放緩。高效能運算和汽車等其他領域的需求仍然強勁。

Litho tool utilization in our customers is still at very high levels, while we're also seeing chip inventory levels trending towards pre-COVID levels. The demand for our systems still significantly exceeds supply this year, and we see no change to this demand picture.

我們客戶的光刻工具利用率仍然處於非常高的水平，同時我們也看到晶片庫存水平趨向於 COVID 之前的水平。今年我們系統的需求仍然大大超過供應，而且我們認為這種需求狀況沒有改變。

We are planning to ship a record number of systems, but we are faced with an increasing number of supply constraints, which, as it seems today, are likely to continue throughout the year. In an effort to recover from these delays, we're increasing the number of fast shipments to get systems to customers as quickly as possible.

我們計劃交付創紀錄數量的系統，但我們面臨越來越多的供應限制，而且從今天的情況來看，這種限制可能會持續全年。為了彌補這些延誤，我們正在增加快速出貨的數量，以便盡快將系統送到客戶手中。

And as a reminder, a fast shipment process skips some of the testing in our factory and final testing and formal acceptance then takes place at the customer side. This leads to a deferral of revenue recognition for those shipments until formal customer acceptance but does provide our customers with early access to wafer output capacity.

提醒一下，快速運送流程會跳過我們工廠的一些測試，最終測試和正式驗收將在客戶處進行。這導致這些貨物的收入確認被推遲到客戶正式驗收時，但確實為我們的客戶提供了提前獲得晶圓輸出能力的機會。

As far as shipments delays the revenue recognition to subsequent quarters, we are seeing more delayed revenue that will move into next year.

就出貨量將收入確認延遲到後續季度而言，我們看到更多的延遲收入將進入明年。

The value of fast shipments in 2022 leading to revenue recognition in 2023 is expected to increase from around EUR 1 billion, as previously communicated, to about EUR 2.8 billion, an increase of EUR 1.8 billion. This then also leads to EUR 1.8 billion lower revenue recognition in 2022, and we therefore now expect year-on-year revenue growth of around 10%.

預計 2022 年快速出貨的價值將在 2023 年確認收入，從先前公佈的約 10 億歐元增加至約 28 億歐元，增加 18 億歐元。這也導致 2022 年的收入確認減少 18 億歐元，因此我們現在預計將年收入成長約為 10%。

As a reminder, we began the year expecting a revenue growth of around 20% or approximately EUR 22.3 billion and EUR 1 billion value of fast shipments at the end of this year. We are now expecting a revenue growth of around 10%, which is approximately EUR 20.5 billion and EUR 2.8 billion value of fast shipments at the end of the year.

提醒一下，我們年初預計今年底營收成長約 20% 或約 223 億歐元，快速出貨價值達 10 億歐元。我們現在預計營收成長約 10%，即年底營收約 205 億歐元，快速出貨量約 28 億歐元。

So the total business value -- the total business volume for 2022 is essentially unchanged.

因此，2022 年的總業務價值－總業務量基本上保持不變。

For our EUV business, we still expect to ship 55 systems this year. As a result of the higher number of far shipments, we now expect recognized EUV revenue this year on 40 systems to be around EUR 6.4 billion, which is similar to the revenue last year.

對於我們的 EUV 業務，我們仍預計今年將出貨 55 套系統。由於遠端出貨量增加，我們目前預計今年 40 個系統上確認的 EUV 收入將達到約 64 億歐元，與去年的收入相似。

Compared to last quarter's view, the number of EUV fast shipments in 2022 that will now be recognized as revenue in 2023 has increased by 9 systems to a total of 15 systems, with a sales value of around EUR 2.4 billion.

與上一季相比，2022 年 EUV 快速出貨量（現在將確認為 2023 年收入）增加了 9 套系統，總數達到 15 套系統，銷售額約為 24 億歐元。

In our DPV and application business, we still expect significant growth both in immersion and dry systems as well as continued strong demand for metrology and inspection systems. Due to a higher number of fast shipments on DPV systems, we now expect a revenue of around EUR 8.6 billion or an increase of over 15%.

在我們的DPV和應用業務中，我們仍然預期浸入式和乾式系統將有顯著成長，並且計量和偵測系統的需求也將持續強勁。由於DPV系統的快速出貨量增加，我們目前預計營收約86億歐元，成長超過15%。

For the Installed Base Management business, service revenue will continue to scale with the growing installed base of systems. Customers will continue to look for upgrade opportunities to improve the performance of systems in their fabs that will be limited by high utilization levels, which will dictate their ability to install upgrades. We still expect 2022 Installed Base revenue to grow around 10% year-on-year.

對於安裝基礎管理業務，服務收入將隨著系統安裝基礎的不斷成長而持續擴大。客戶將繼續尋找升級機會，以提高其晶圓廠系統的性能，因為高利用率將限制系統的性能，這將決定他們安裝升級的能力。我們仍然預計 2022 年安裝基礎收入將年增 10% 左右。

Regarding the market segments, there has been no change in customer demand as the majority of the additional EUR 1.8 billion of delayed revenue was with EUV, and therefore, it relates to our Logic segments. We now expect Logic system revenue to be up around 5% year-on-year and Memory system revenue to be up around 20% year-over-year.

就細分市場而言，客戶需求沒有變化，因為額外的 18 億歐元延遲收入大部分來自 EUV，因此與我們的邏輯細分市場有關。我們現在預計邏輯系統收入將年增約 5%，記憶體系統收入將年增約 20%。

On gross margin, we started the year with an expectation of a gross margin for 2022 of around 53%, and we adjusted this to 52% last quarter due to increased inflationary costs. There are a few developments that have a further impact on our expected gross margin for the year.

在毛利率方面，我們年初預計 2022 年的毛利率約為 53%，但由於通膨成本增加，上個季度我們將其調整為 52%。有一些發展對我們今年的預期毛利率產生了進一步影響。

First, the higher delayed revenue, an increase of EUR 1.8 billion, relates to our higher-margin EUV and emerging systems. Secondly, the supply chain issues, we do delayed system starts, and therefore, we will have lower fixed cost coverage on a lower number of system starts this year compared to what we had planned last quarter.

首先，更高的延遲收入（增加了 18 億歐元）與我們利潤率更高的 EUV 和新興系統有關。其次，由於供應鏈問題，我們的系統啟動確實有所延遲，因此與上個季度的計劃相比，今年我們的系統啟動次數將減少，固定成本覆蓋率也將降低。

Fixed cost also increased due to our plans to ramp capacity faster in preparation for what still seems to be a good growth year in 2023. And finally, strong inflationary effects related to material cost of freight and labor continue to impact our cost of sales.

固定成本也有所增加，因為我們計劃加快產能，為 2023 年似乎仍將是良好的成長年做準備。最後，與運費和勞動力材料成本相關的強勁通膨效應持續影響我們的銷售成本。

Combination of these effects resulted in an expected '22 gross margin between 49% and 50%. We're currently in discussion with our customers and suppliers to find a fair way to share in these inflationary cost increases.

這些因素綜合作用，導致預計 22 年毛利率將在 49% 至 50% 之間。我們目前正在與客戶和供應商討論，尋找公平的方式來分擔這些通貨膨脹的成本增加。

It is important to emphasize that the reasons for the lower margin guidance are a result of short-term shocks in our ecosystem and can be adjusted over time in collaboration with our ecosystem partners. Therefore, our longer-term gross margin ambition of 54% to 56% in 2025, as communicated during Investor Day last year, is still [valid].

值得強調的是，利潤率指引較低的原因是我們生態系統的短期衝擊，並且可以隨著時間的推移與我們的生態系統合作夥伴進行調整。因此，我們去年投資者日期間提出的 2025 年 54% 至 56% 的長期毛利率目標仍然有效。

Longer term, if we look at the secular drivers, the global megatrends driving our industry are still in place at fueling demand for both advanced and mature nodes.

從長遠來看，如果我們看一下長期驅動因素，推動我們行業發展的全球大趨勢仍然在推動對先進和成熟節點的需求。

Expanding application space for semiconductors and secular trends are driving long-term structural demand. Growth in the automotive market is very strong as semiconductor content scales with increasing automation and electrification.

半導體應用空間的擴大和長期趨勢正在推動長期結構性需求。隨著自動化和電氣化程度的提高，半導體內容規模不斷擴大，汽車市場的成長非常強勁。

Customers are also indicating increasing demand for semiconductors as part of the green energy transition and the build-out of the smart grid.

客戶也表示，作為綠色能源轉型和智慧電網建設的一部分，對半導體的需求不斷增加。

The demand for more mature technology nodes is furthermore driven by Internet of Things, fueling the demand for sensors, power ICs and actuators. Customers are seeing very strong growth due to demand from high-performance computing applications.

物聯網進一步推動了對更成熟技術節點的需求，從而刺激了對感測器、電源積體電路和致動器的需求。由於高效能運算應用的需求，客戶看到了非常強勁的成長。

As applications require higher performance and lower power, we see the energy-efficient path to transistor growth driving the need for larger die sizes. Finally, there are a number of fabs being planned or are already in progress, driven primarily by technological sovereignty investments and subsidy schemes next to increased foundry competition.

由於應用需要更高的性能和更低的功耗，我們看到晶體管成長的節能途徑推動了對更大晶片尺寸的需求。最後，有許多晶圓廠正在規劃或已經在建設中，這主要受到技術主權投資和補貼計劃以及代工競爭加劇的推動。

Growth in semiconductor end markets and increasing lithography intensity are pushing the demand for our products and services. This is evident in our quarterly order flow of over EUR 6 billion for the past 5 quarters and a record order intake of EUR 8.5 billion this past quarter.

半導體終端市場的成長和光刻強度的提高正在推動對我們產品和服務的需求。過去 5 個季度，我們的季度訂單流量超過 60 億歐元，而本季的訂單量創下了 85 億歐元的紀錄，這充分證明了這一點。

Our backlog has grown to over EUR 33 billion, and we expect continued high order intake this quarter. Almost 85% of this backlog is for EUV and immersion, which is planned for advanced nodes. The [market outlook] this year and next continues to exceed supply.

我們的積壓訂單已增加至330多億歐元，我們預計本季訂單量將持續保持在高位。幾乎 85% 的積壓訂單是針對 EUV 和浸入式技術，計劃用於先進節點。今年和明年市場仍將供過於求。

There is a clear concern in the market regarding recessionary fears and the impact this could have on the map. Of course, if we were to go into a significant recession, we would not be immune to this, but we don't expect our '22 business to be impacted. And also for 2023, given our backlog, we believe we are well covered.

市場明顯擔心經濟衰退及其可能對地圖造成的影響。當然，如果我們陷入嚴重的經濟衰退，我們將無法倖免，但我們預計我們的 22 年業務不會受到影響。對於 2023 年而言，考慮到我們的積壓訂單，我們相信我們已經做好了充分的準備。

[Investors] keep stressing that we will not cut CapEx for litho despite current market conditions and uncertainties.

[投資者]一直強調，儘管當前市場狀況和不確定性存在，我們不會削減光刻技術的資本支出。

So assuming that we have the supply chain issues addressed by the end of the year or early next year, we're still positive that we should be able to turn the envisaged capacity for 2023 of more than 60 EUV systems and more than 375 DPV systems into another healthy growth year for ASML.

因此，假設我們能夠在年底或明年初解決供應鏈問題，我們仍然有信心將 2023 年預計的 60 多個 EUV 系統和 375 多個 DPV 系統的產能轉化為 ASML 的另一個健康增長年。

And as mentioned in April, we're actively engaging with our supply chain to add capacity so that we will be able to have the shipment capacity in 2025 of around 90 EUV 0.33 NA systems and around 600 DPV systems.

正如 4 月所提到的，我們正在積極與我們的供應鏈合作以增加產能，以便到 2025 年我們能夠擁有約 90 個 EUV 0.33 NA 系統和約 600 個 DPV 系統的出貨能力。

We're also discussing with our supply chain partners to secure a shipment capacity of around 20 EUV 0.55 High-NA systems in the medium term. Our 2025 capacity targets as well as updates to our longer-term scenarios will be addressed at our Investor Day later this year.

我們也正在與我們的供應鏈合作夥伴進行討論，以確保中期內約 20 台 EUV 0.55 高 NA 系統的出貨能力。我們將在今年稍後的投資者日上討論 2025 年的產能目標以及長期情境的更新。

So in summary, although we are currently experiencing obvious supply chain challenges, we're still working to maximize output to meet the strong customer demand for [Mesa] fast shipments. We still expect demand to exceed supply this year and next.

總而言之，儘管我們目前面臨著明顯的供應鏈挑戰，但我們仍在努力最大限度地提高產量，以滿足客戶對 [Mesa] 快速發貨的強烈需求。我們仍然預計今年和明年的需求將超過供應。

And even though there are currently clear macroeconomic concerns, we expect strong continued demand for semiconductors in support of the ongoing digital transformation. We're working to increase our capacity next year with a plan to further increase this by 2025, as communicated last quarter.

儘管目前存在明顯的宏觀經濟擔憂，但我們預計半導體需求將持續強勁，以支持正在進行的數位轉型。正如上個季度所傳達的，我們正在努力提高明年的產能，並計劃在 2025 年進一步提高產能。

We remain confident in the opportunity this provides for our future growth, which we plan to update you during our Investor Day on November 11. I really hope to see you there.

我們對此為我們未來發展帶來的機會充滿信心，並計劃在 11 月 11 日的投資者日期間向您通報最新情況。我非常希望在那裡見到您。

With that, we would be happy to take your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible. Now operator, could we have your final instructions and the first question, please?

謝謝你，羅傑和彼得。操作員將立即指導您在問答環節的協議。 （操作員指示）這將使我們能夠聯繫到盡可能多的呼叫者。接線員，請問您最後的指示和第一個問題好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo.

（操作員指示）第一個問題來自富國銀行的喬·夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

You talked about your customer conversations indicating that even in a moderate recession, they're still running your tools. And so maybe you don't see cancellations, but I guess, how do we think about the delays and -- potentially for delays in delivery times? And how do you think about that relative to your backlog, I guess, is obviously well covering 2023 at this point?

您談到與客戶的對話，表明即使在溫和的經濟衰退中，他們仍在使用您的工具。所以也許你沒有看到取消，但我想，我們如何看待延遲以及潛在的交貨時間延遲？您如何看待這個問題，相對於您的積壓訂單而言，我猜，目前顯然已經涵蓋了 2023 年？

Yes. I think the delays in delivery times, we're trying to -- we're not trying, we're actually doing. We are helping our customers with the fast shipments, which actually means that if you look at our production value, so the value of the system coming out of our factory with and without fast shipments, that's actually, as I said, not as fast as we planned, but it's definitely growing. It is ramping.

是的。我認為交貨時間的延遲，我們正在嘗試——我們不是在嘗試，而是我們實際上在做。我們正在幫助客戶快速發貨，這實際上意味著，如果你看看我們的生產價值，那麼無論有沒有快速發貨，從我們工廠出來的系統的價值實際上，正如我所說的，沒有我們計劃的那麼快，但它肯定在增長。它正在逐漸壯大。

So the delay in the delivery time is really a delay in the revenue recognition. I mean we are delivering. This is why we include -- this is why we go to fast shipments. So -- and as we can point out and just looking at our production value coming out of the factory, the second half is higher than the first half.

因此，交貨時間的延遲其實就是收入確認的延遲。我的意思是我們正在實現目標。這就是我們提供快速出貨服務的原因。所以——正如我們所指出的，只要看一下我們工廠的產值，下半年就會高於上半年。

And this is also exactly why we are still working on getting a production capacity in our factory that helps us to ship over 60 EUV systems next year and over 375 DPV systems because as you pointed out, the backlog is there. And the customers say, "Whatever you do, please ship those systems," because we are under shipment -- we are undershipping the demand.

這也正是為什麼我們仍在努力提高工廠的生產能力，以幫助我們明年出貨超過 60 套 EUV 系統和超過 375 套 DPV 系統，因為正如您所指出的，我們還存在積壓訂單。客戶說，“無論你做什麼，請發貨這些系統”，因為我們的發貨量不足——我們的發貨量無法滿足需求。

So we are shipping. It's unfortunately not as fast as we would like to. So our output ramp coming out of the factory could have been higher. That's because of the supply chain constraints that we currently see.

所以我們正在發貨。不幸的是，它沒有我們想像的那麼快。因此我們工廠的產量可能會更高。這是因為我們目前看到的供應鏈限制。

But we are executing according to the backlog and according to plan and according to customer demand. And that's where we are today. And then this issue of revenue recognition delay, but that is an accounting thing.

但我們是根據積壓訂單、計劃和客戶需求來執行的。這就是我們今天的處境。然後是收入確認延遲的問題，但這是會計問題。

And Joe, just to underscore what Peter is saying. So the delay that we're having is purely based on constraints, right, on constraints in the supply chain. It's not at the request of customers through -- quite to the contrary, right? The customers are still pushing very much for shipments.

喬，我只是想強調彼得所說的話。因此，我們遇到的延遲純粹是基於限制，基於供應鏈的限制。這不是根據客戶的要求——恰恰相反，對嗎？顧客仍在極力催促出貨。

And therefore, as Peter said, we're turning to the -- we have been turning through the fast-ship mode. And that has not changed at all. So we don't have customers knocking on our door saying, "Could we have the tools there?" That has just not happened.

因此，正如彼得所說，我們正在轉向——我們一直在採用快速發貨模式。這一點一點也沒有改變。因此，我們不會遇到客戶敲門問「我們可以提供工具嗎？」但那根本就沒有發生。

Absolutely not.

絕對不是。

Got it. And then as a follow-up, is EUV capacity for next year already covered by the backlog? And then can you remind us when you start shipping the 3800E next year, how do we think about your ability to do the fast shipment? I think isn't there a period where you're going to have to establish a baseline for that tool before you can fast ship?

知道了。然後作為後續問題，明年的 EUV 產能是否已經被積壓的訂單覆蓋了？然後您能否提醒我們，當您明年開始出貨 3800E 時，我們如何看待您快速出貨的能力？我認為在快速發貨之前，是否需要一段時間來為該工具建立基準？

Yes. So the backlog of EUV is well over 100 at this stage. So we talked about EUV capacity for next year of over 60. Of course, we still have the second half to go. But yes, the answer is well, well covered for next year.

是的。因此，現階段 EUV 的積壓訂單已遠遠超過 100 個。因此，我們談到了明年 EUV 產能將超過 60。當然，我們還有下半年要走。但答案是肯定的，明年的情況已經很明朗了。

In terms of the 3600 versus the 3800, I think the lion's share of the tools that will be shipped next year will be 3600. The 3800 will be a fairly small number, and all of those will -- and those will ship in the second half. But the lion's share also of the second half will be 3600.

就 3600 與 3800 而言，我認為明年出貨的工具中大部分將是 3600。3800 的數量會相當少，而且所有這些工具都將在下半年出貨。但下半年的最大份額也將是 3600。

Yes, Joe. And I think, also last quarter, we -- as we said, we expected that by the end of Q2, we would have been covered until the end of 2022, and that turned out to be correct.

是的，喬。而且我認為，正如我們上個季度所說，我們預計到第二季末，我們的覆蓋範圍將持續到 2022 年底，事實證明這是正確的。

Our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini of SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Just a quick follow-up to that 100 EUV systems that are in your backlog. Peter, if there are about 15 system revenue recognition that are pushed out into '23, does that mean that at some point, it will catch up and you would potentially be recognizing revenue for 75 systems, 66 that was expected to be shipped in '23 and 15 systems that are slipping from '22 to '23? And I have a follow-up.

我只是想快速跟進一下您積壓的 100 個 EUV 系統。彼得，如果有大約 15 個系統的收入確認被推遲到 23 年，這是否意味著在某個時候，它會趕上來，並且您可能會確認 75 個系統的收入，其中 66 個預計在 23 年發貨，還有 15 個系統從 22 年下滑到 23 年？我還有一個後續問題。

Right. Roger, you want to...

正確的。羅傑，你想…

Yes. I could take it. Mehdi, the fast shipment -- of course, at some stage, you would expect that the effect of fast shipment is somehow going to reverse itself. And there are multiple ways how fast shipments can reverse itself.

是的。我可以接受。邁赫迪，快速裝運——當然，在某個階段，你會預料到快速裝運的效果會以某種方式逆轉。貨物運輸逆轉的速度有多種方式。

One way how it could reverse itself is that we simply start to slow down fast shipments and are going back to the way we've done it before. And in that way, you would then indeed get revenue -- get more revenue recognition out of the previous quarter than what you push into the next quarter. So that's one way.

扭轉這一局面的一種方法是，我們只需開始放慢快速發貨的速度，並回到以前的做法。這樣，你確實會獲得收入——上一季的收入確認比下一季的收入確認要多。這是一種方法。

Another way, quite frankly, is if indeed, at a certain point in time, fast shipment becomes the standard and it turns out that the installation at the customer, frankly, we're currently experiencing, is not experiencing any issues.

坦白說，另一種情況是，如果確實在某個時間點，快速發貨成為標準，而事實證明，坦白說，我們目前正在經歷的客戶安裝沒有遇到任何問題。

And that's what we're seeing right now. Right now, we see that by -- even though there is a number of tests that we're not doing at the factory, we see that we're not exporting problems into the field.

這就是我們現在所看到的。現在，我們看到——儘管我們沒有在工廠進行大量測試，但我們發現我們並沒有將問題轉移到現場。

So to the extent that, that has corroborated, in essence, that means that those tests that we used to do in the factory do not have a lot of value or might not have any value at all.

因此，從本質上來說，這證實了我們過去在工廠進行的那些測試沒有太大價值，或者根本沒有任何價值。

So when it then becomes the standard, then we're also going to turn to the question, might we actually then get factory acceptance even with a few of these tests eliminated. And as a result of that, we could go back to the model of having revenue recognition upon shipment rather than upon installation.

因此，當它成為標準時，我們也會轉向這個問題，即使取消其中一些測試，我們是否真的能獲得工廠的認可。因此，我們可以回到在發貨時而不是安裝時確認收入的模式。

Of course, we need to have a fact pattern to back that up, right? So there's still work to be done there. So those are two potential outcomes. Because at a certain stage, I think it is logical that you would expect some of these fast shipments effectively reversed and as a result of that, to get benefit from previous quarters rather than see it go into the next quarter.

當然，我們需要有事實模式來支持這一點，對嗎？所以那裡仍有工作要做。所以這是兩種可能的結果。因為在某個階段，我認為合乎邏輯的是，你會預期其中一些快速出貨量會有效逆轉，並因此從前幾季中獲益，而不是進入下一個季度。

Timing is difficult to project, when exactly that is and when you might see the reversal. But it's not lost, right? And anything that we push out of the year at some point, we'll be able to deliver.

時間很難預測，很難準確預測何時會出現逆轉。但它並沒有丟失，對吧？無論我們在今年的某個時候推出什麼計劃，我們都能夠實現。

Yes. And to your math, I mean it's a simple math, anything we will ship in terms of EUV next year, whether it's 60 or 55 or 65 or whatever number it is, that is the number. And if we can recognize all those shipments, then of course, everything we've pushed out of 2022 into 2023 will come on top, yes.

是的。對於你的數學來說，我的意思是這是一個簡單的數學，我們明年將以 EUV 形式出貨的任何產品，無論是 60 還是 55 或 65 或任何數字，這都是數字。如果我們能夠識別所有這些出貨量，那麼當然，我們從 2022 年推遲到 2023 年的所有出貨量都會名列前茅，是的。

Okay. And then a follow-up question for both Peter and Roger. I'm just trying to understand how you're planning. And in case there is more risk, how are you planning to mitigate the risk? [Two], you highlighted the weaker end-market demand from PCs and smartphones. That effectively accounts for half of the semiconductor industry.

好的。然後是針對 Peter 和 Roger 的後續問題。我只是想了解你的計劃。如果有更多風險，您打算如何降低風險？ [二] 您強調了個人電腦和智慧型手機的終端市場需求較弱。這實際上佔據了半導體行業的一半。

You talked about -- your customers' customer have inventories that are at all-time high. And there are uncertain factors. Yes, hyperscalers are doing well, but that was expected to be seasonally strong in the second half.

您談到了—您的客戶的客戶的庫存處於歷史最高水準。而且還存在不確定因素。是的，超大規模企業表現良好，但預計下半年將呈現季節性強勁。

So as I look into the first half of next year, given on [nonfactor], what is ASML thinking or doing to mitigate the downside risk if, in fact, there is some pushout in the equivalent delivery scheduled for the first half of ['23]?

因此，當我展望明年上半年時，考慮到 [非因素]，如果 ['23] 上半年計劃的等效交付確實有所推遲，ASML 會考慮或做什麼來減輕下行風險？

Well, what we are doing, if that would happen, which we don't think is going to happen, I'll explain you later why, then we -- as you know from our cost of goods, 80% to 85% of our cost of goods is in the supply chain.

好吧，我們正在做的是，如果這種情況發生，我們認為不會發生，我稍後會向你解釋原因，然後我們 - 正如你從我們的商品成本中知道的那樣，我們 80％ 到 85％ 的商品成本是在供應鏈中。

So actually, it means that we would have to spread that pressure like we did in any other downcycle in the past. We will spread that in a now larger supply chain. So what? So we will just adjust our output. That's what we normally would do.

因此，實際上，這意味著我們必須像過去任何其他下行週期一樣分散這種壓力。我們將在現在更大的供應鏈中傳播這一點。所以呢？所以我們只需調整我們的輸出。這正是我們平常會做的事。

And the reason why I think 2023 is still going to be good and is going to be a growth year is -- and you refer to EUV, has to do with the fact that when we look at the EUV shipments, so where are we shipping to? Till the end of next year, we will ship to 8 new EUV fabs, 8, yes, which are largely, you could say, fabs on an average at least 40,000 per month capacity.

我認為 2023 年仍將是良好且增長的一年，原因是 - 您提到 EUV，這與我們查看 EUV 出貨量時，我們要運送到哪裡有關？到明年年底，我們將向 8 座新的 EUV 晶圓廠發貨，是的，8 座，可以說，這些晶圓廠平均每月的產能至少為 40,000 台。

Those fabs needs [are -- is] way over 300,000 wafer starts per month capacity that's being built, that actually needs EUV tools. And not only EUV tools, they need immersion tools and they need dry tools, yes? And those are all fabs which are in the advanced nodes, which are the leading-edge fabs for our customers.

這些晶圓廠每月所需的晶圓產能遠超過 30 萬片，實際上需要 EUV 工具。而且不僅是 EUV 工具，他們還需要浸入式工具和乾式工具，對嗎？這些都是處於先進節點的晶圓廠，也是我們客戶所依賴的尖端晶圓廠。

And yes, there may be a slowdown, but the innovation won't stop. And I'm pretty sure that our customers, if you ask all of them -- just refer to TSMC's comments a couple of days ago. They have a strong belief in the digital transformation.

是的，可能會出現放緩，但創新不會停止。而且我非常確定，如果你問我們的客戶所有人——只需參考台積電幾天前的評論。他們對數位轉型有著堅定的信念。

So any short-term shocks in the demand cycle -- and you have to compare with the long-term view that our customers have on the whole digital transformation, and that's why they are building fabs. 8 EUV fabs till the end of next year need tools, and they need immersion and they need dry. And so this is why we have a big backlog.

因此，需求週期中的任何短期衝擊——都必須與我們的客戶對整個數位轉型的長期看法進行比較，這就是他們建造晶圓廠的原因。到明年年底，8 座 EUV 晶圓廠都需要工具，需要浸沒，需要乾燥。這就是我們有大量積壓訂單的原因。

So you have to -- clearly, customers are going to adjust some of their CapEx and are going to make choices when there is a recessionary environment or when there's a slowdown in the demand.

所以你必須——顯然，客戶將調整他們的部分資本支出，並在經濟衰退或需求放緩時做出選擇。

But a longer-term view, yes -- or what is needed, going forward, bearing in mind that they're dealing with a supplier which has, by far, the longest lead time, which has, to be honest, traumatized them over the last 2 years with respect to their capacity, yes, they come to take tools. That's at least our strong conviction today.

但從長遠來看，是的——或者說，向前看是需要的，要記住，他們正在與一個迄今為止交貨時間最長的供應商打交道，說實話，在過去的兩年裡，他們的產能受到了很大的打擊，是的，他們來拿工具。這至少是我們今天的堅定信念。

And also bear in mind, Mehdi, that on -- at least on the EUV tools and a number of immersion tools, we get quite significant down payments. So before a customer decides to either cancel or push out, I mean that's a bit illogical, if you realize that they put up already so much money to get the order.

另外請記住，Mehdi，至少在 EUV 工具和一些浸入式工具上，我們獲得了相當可觀的首付款。因此，在客戶決定取消或推遲之前，如果你意識到他們已經投入了這麼多錢來獲得訂單，那麼這有點不合邏輯。

So I think the likelihood, particularly in combination with the points that Peter made, I think, is low.

因此，我認為這種可能性很低，特別是結合彼得所提出的觀點。

And yes, the way we are organized, we have quite a bit of flexibility. We're still hiring many, many people. We have flexibility in our supply chain. We have a strong balance sheet.

是的，我們的組織方式具有相當大的彈性。我們仍在招募大量員工。我們的供應鏈具有彈性。我們擁有強勁的資產負債表。

So I think from that vantage point, I think the company is well prepared. But the likelihood of this kicking in at this stage, given the data points I just mentioned, we see a [flow].

因此我認為從這個角度來看，公司已經做好了充分的準備。但考慮到我剛才提到的數據點，我們看到這種現像在現階段發生的可能性是[流動]。

And on cancellations, as you know, Mehdi, in all the time I've been with the company, the only cancellations I can remember were -- was a customer actually canceled orders because they wanted to replace that tool type with a new tool type, is the kind of cancellations that we are getting. So -- and this is actually not what we've seen in the past.

關於取消訂單，正如你所知，Mehdi，在我為公司工作的所有時間裡，我記得的唯一取消訂單是 - 客戶實際上取消了訂單，因為他們想用一種新的工具類型替換該工具類型，這就是我們收到的取消訂單類型。所以——這其實不是我們過去所看到的。

Having said that, there's a lot of talk -- and I said it in my introductory comments. There's a lot of talk about recessionary fears. And nobody can really give a good insight or foresight into how deep a recession would be.

話雖如此，但還是有很多討論的——我在開場白中已經說過了。關於經濟衰退的擔憂有很多討論。沒有人能夠真正洞察或預見經濟衰退的深度。

When it's a deep, deep recession that everybody gets it, and I think we have different problems than customer pushouts, yes? When it's a moderate recession, then I would have to refer back to what I said earlier in my answer to your question: I think we're going to ship those machines because they need it.

當經濟陷入深度衰退時，每個人都會感受到這種影響，我認為我們面臨的問題與客戶流失問題不同，對嗎？當出現適度衰退時，我必須回顧我之前回答你的問題時所說的話：我認為我們會運送這些機器，因為他們需要它。

And our next question comes from the line of from Francois Bouvignies of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Francois Bouvignies。

I have maybe one clarification. It's on the deep UV for 2023. So Peter, if I look last quarter, you expected to reach, I think, the full deep UV capacity in '23 at 375 versus a demand of 600. Now since last quarter, we experienced a slowdown that you flagged as well and especially maybe on the Memory side, which is a bit more aggressive since last quarter.

我可能需要澄清一點。這是 2023 年的深紫外光刻產能。彼得，如果我看一下上個季度，您預計 2023 年深紫外光刻產能將達到 375 顆，而需求為 600 顆。現在，自上個季度以來，我們經歷了您所指出的成長放緩，尤其是在記憶體方面，自上個季度以來，成長勢頭更為迅猛。

So in light of this change and maybe that the Memory represents a meaningful part of deep UV revenues, do you still expect to reach 375 tools next year?

因此，鑑於這一變化，也許內存代表了深紫外線收入的重要組成部分，您是否仍預計明年將達到 375 種工具？

Yes. I think -- like I said also in my introductory comments, we don't see -- yes, we are not -- of course, not there. So we listen and we also read what customers have actually said and -- especially to specific Memory customers that listen, we see a slowdown, especially in the consumer segment, on PCs and on smartphones.

是的。我認為——就像我在開場白中所說的那樣，我們沒有看到——是的，我們沒有——當然，不在那裡。因此，我們傾聽並閱讀客戶的實際意見，特別是對於特定的記憶體客戶，我們發現成長放緩，特別是在消費領域、個人電腦和智慧型手機。

But they hasten to pick up the phone and said one thing, "I don't think you can give our machines to other people because of this. We want those machines." for the reasons I just gave as an answer to the question that Mehdi just asked a few minutes ago.

但他們趕緊拿起電話說了一句話，「我認為你不能因為這個就把我們的機器給別人，我們想要那些機器。」原因我剛才已經給出，以回答 Mehdi 幾分鐘前提出的問題。

So yes, I mean we see it, we hear it, but we also listen to what customers say. And they said, "We have these strategic investment projects, and we need those machines." And whether they're are Memory customers in Korea or in the U.S. or in China, for that matter, they want those machines because they still aren't getting what they planned.

是的，我的意思是我們看到了它，聽到了它，但我們也聽取了顧客的意見。他們說：「我們有這些戰略投資項目，我們需要這些機器。」無論他們是韓國、美國還是中國的 Memory 客戶，他們都想要這些機器，因為他們還沒有得到他們計劃的東西。

Now could that demand go down? Yes, it could go down. But there's still a significant gap, as you pointed out, between what we can make and what they ask from us.

那麼現在這種需求會下降嗎？是的，它可能會下降。但正如您所指出的，我們所能做的和他們對我們的要求之間仍然存在很大差距。

Now -- and that can come down, but before it hits that 375 and before it hits the real strategic investment that we are doing in all these fabs, we need to have a real slowdown. And that's anybody's guess at this moment in time.

現在 — — 這個數字可能會下降，但在達到 375 之前，在達到我們在所有這些晶圓廠所做的真正戰略投資之前，我們需要真正放緩。目前，任何人都只能猜測這一點。

Okay. And maybe my quick follow-up. How should we think about the pricing of the tools in '23? I mean given the inflation, is it something that you will negotiate, maybe, the pricing, which is EUV may be more driven by your innovation and update of tools? But what about the deep UV pricing strategy, going forward?

好的。也許這是我的快速跟進。我們該如何考慮 23 年工具的定價？我的意思是，考慮到通貨膨脹，您是否會協商定價，EUV 的定價可能更多地取決於您的創新和工具更新？但未來的深紫外線定價策略又會如何呢？

Well, I think it applies to both two types. I think when you look at the purchase orders, the purchase orders are an agreement with a buyer and a seller. And over the last couple of decades, we never had to deal with this very short-term sharp-rising inflation. So in fact, we don't have any formal agreement in contracts that would allow us to just jack up the price.

嗯，我認為它適用於這兩種類型。我認為當您查看採購訂單時，採購訂單是買方和賣方之間的協議。在過去的幾十年裡，我們從未遇到這種短期急劇上升的通貨膨脹。所以事實上，我們並沒有任何正式的合約協議允許我們提高價格。

However, we are in discussions with customers and already, we have some indications that customer, "Yes, we understand your predicaments and your issues." So we're in discussion with those customers and then to see what's fair.

然而，我們正在與客戶進行討論，並且已經有一些跡象表明客戶表示「是的，我們了解您的困境和問題。」因此，我們正在與這些客戶進行討論，然後看看什麼是公平的。

But clearly, for everything that's [nondeal], going forward, that's clear that we will adjust our pricing to just cover the inflationary pressures wherever they will go. I think that's also clear.

但顯然，對於未來所有[非協議]而言，很顯然，我們將調整定價，以應對通膨壓力，無論通膨壓力如何。我想這也很清楚。

But there is a -- we need to actually -- and we are in discussions with our customers to say, "Listen, this is a short-term [shock] effect. So how are we going to deal with it?" And that's happening as we speak.

但實際上我們需要這樣做，我們正在與客戶討論，告訴他們：「聽著，這只是短期的（衝擊）效應。那麼我們該如何應對呢？」而這正是我們說話時正在發生的事情。

Our next question comes from the line of Alexander Duval at Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的亞歷山大·杜瓦爾。

A quick one on gross margins. Given that a certain amount of fixed costs are being recognized this year for some of the EUV and DUV systems that will have related revenue recognition not until next year, which obviously has a negative impact on gross profitability this year, should we expect that this is going to translate into a margin boost next year? And how large could that be?

快速了解一下毛利率。鑑於今年部分 EUV 和 DUV 系統確認了一定數量的固定成本，而這些系統直到明年才會確認相關收入，這顯然會對今年的毛利產生負面影響，我們是否應該預期這會轉化為明年的利潤率增長？那它有多大呢？

If you could help us understand a bit the moving parts and quantify that perhaps, that would be very much appreciated.

如果您能幫助我們了解一些活動部件並量化它們，我們將非常感激。

Alexander, the principal, in and by itself, is correct, right? So to the extent that we have less starts this year, that means that you get less fixed cost coverage. And of course, to the extent that you catch up on that, of course, you get a bit more fixed cost coverage on that. So that is true.

校長亞歷山大本身就是對的，對嗎？因此，如果今年開工量減少，就意味著獲得的固定成本覆蓋減少。當然，只要你趕上了這個程度，你就會得到更多的固定成本保障。確實如此。

That's -- on an EUV system, that's a couple of million that you're looking at EUR 4 million or EUR 5 million approximately of the amount there for a system that you look at in terms of the fixed cost coverage. So that is part of it.

就 EUV 系統而言，從固定成本覆蓋率來看，該系統的成本約為 400 萬歐元或 500 萬歐元。這就是其中的一部分。

Of course, it goes back to an earlier question that we had, which is at what [stage] do you expect that the effect of fast shipment is going to reverse itself, right? So that's what it is related to. But then you have a little bit of an indication on the direction of travel and the amount of all.

當然，這又回到我們之前的一個問題，那就是您預計快速發貨的效果會在哪個階段發生逆轉，對嗎？這就是它所相關的內容。但這樣你就會對旅行的方向和數量有一點了解。

Our next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc of Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的亞歷山大‧彼得 (Aleksander Peterc)。

So just one clarification first and then a quick follow-up. The clarification would be, when I listen to your comments, Roger, it seems to me that you imply that a couple of years out, we'll either see the delayed revenue recognition going away naturally as you no longer have to fast ship or you think that there will be a change in revenue recognition so that, that final tests will no longer be required because it is proven largely as redundant.

因此，首先需要澄清一點，然後進行快速跟進。澄清的是，當我聽你的評論時，羅傑，在我看來，你暗示幾年後，我們要么會看到延遲收入確認自然消失，因為你不再需要快速發貨，要么你認為收入確認會發生變化，以至於最終測試將不再需要，因為它在很大程度上被證明是多餘的。

So should we think that, say, by 2025, we no longer will have this variable buffer of revenue that is hard to estimate and that changes revenue prospects quite a lot? And then I have a quick follow-up.

那麼，我們是否應該認為，到 2025 年，我們將不再擁有這種難以估計且會在很大程度上改變收入前景的可變收入緩衝？然後我有一個快速的跟進。

To be honest, I don't -- I hope we don't have to wait all that long for that. But at a certain point in time, it is, as I said, either this becomes standard practice. And as it becomes standard practice, then I think we've also been able to persuade customers that this works and that we're not exporting problems from the factory into the field.

說實話，我並不希望——我希望我們不必為此等待那麼長時間。但在某個時間點，正如我所說，這要么成為標準做法。隨著它成為標準做法，我認為我們也能夠說服客戶，這是有效的，我們不會將問題從工廠轉移到現場。

And then I think we should be in a position to also get customer sign-off when the tests are done here in the factory. And then we should also be able to get revenue recognition there.

然後我認為當工廠完成測試時，我們也應該能夠獲得客戶的簽名。然後我們也應該能夠在那裡獲得收入確認。

Or we determine that we're no longer going to do fast shipments and that we're going to go back to what we did before. I think it's pretty likely that it will be either one of those two outcomes. And therefore, I think, at a certain point in time, you will see the fast shipment reverse itself.

或者我們決定不再進行快速發貨，並恢復到以前的做法。我認為很有可能是這兩種結果之一。因此，我認為，在某個時間點，你會看到快速出貨的趨勢發生逆轉。

To be honest, I don't hope that that's going to last another 3 years because the communication with you guys will be significantly enhanced if we no longer have to go through all the adjustments around fast shipment.

說實話，我不希望這種情況再持續 3 年，因為如果我們不再需要圍繞快速發貨進行所有調整，與你們的溝通將顯著增強。

And that's a realistic assumption that I would have. And I hope that, at least somewhere next year, we're going to be in a position to determine whether we're going to go left or right.

這是我的一個現實的假設。我希望，至少在明年的某個時候，我們能夠決定是向左走還是向右走。

And you have to realize the discussion with this has only got one goal, and that is to reduce the cycle time from the moment that we start a system until we get it accepted at the customer side. That's the only goal.

你必須意識到，對此的討論只有一個目標，那就是縮短從我們啟動系統到客戶接受它的週期時間。這是唯一的目標。

And the only reason why customers say, "Ship me the tool." is because we now have evidence, because we're doing this for 9 months now, that, as Roger said earlier, the installation time between a fast shipment and a non-fast shipment is exactly the same.

這也是客戶說「把工具寄給我」的唯一原因。是因為我們現在有證據，因為我們已經這樣做了 9 個月，正如羅傑之前所說，快速裝運和非快速裝運之間的安裝時間完全相同。

So what we've effectively done, we have reduced the cycle time from the start of the system to the installation at the customer side with about a month.

因此，我們有效地做到了將從系統啟動到客戶端安裝的周期時間縮短到大約一個月。

Well, if this is something that we can make standard practice and perhaps we need another year or so or a couple of quarters to come to the conclusion that, that is the predictable outcome. Then we could also go to the customers and say, "Hey, then we should act -- basically change the acceptance term in our factory by just doing less test." And I think we're just building the approved data, but that would effectively mean a reduction of cycle time, and that's to the benefit of both ASML and the customer.

好吧，如果我們可以將其作為標準做法，也許我們還需要一年左右或幾個季度才能得出結論，這是可預見的結果。然後我們也可以去找客戶說，「嘿，那麼我們應該採取行動——透過減少測試來改變我們工廠的驗收期限。」我認為我們只是在建立批准的數據，但這實際上意味著縮短週期時間，這對 ASML 和客戶都有好處。

So it's not an accounting thing. Unfortunately, accounting is what we have to deal with. But just from a business point of view, it makes a lot of sense.

所以這不是會計問題。不幸的是，我們必須處理會計問題。但僅從商業角度來看，這很有意義。

Very clear. And a quick follow-up. Just on what's going on in terms of EUV average selling prices. Your guidance for the year seems to imply this will land for the year at EUR 160 million per system approximately as H1 was significantly higher, I think, around EUR 172 million.

非常清楚。並進行快速跟進。僅討論 EUV 平均售價方面的情況。您對今年的指導似乎意味著今年每個系統的收入將達到約 1.6 億歐元，因為我認為上半年的收入要高得多，約為 1.72 億歐元。

What is driving the lower ASP in the second half? Is it just a question of mix and features or anything else is in play here?

導致下半年平均售價下降的原因是什麼？這僅僅是混合和功能的問題還是有其他問題？

No. I think it really was an anomaly in the first quarter. So in the second quarter, you would see that the ASP is EUR 163 million. So that's around the EUR 160 million that we say, that we advise you to take.

不，我認為這確實是第一季的一個異常現象。因此，在第二季度，您會看到 ASP 為 1.63 億歐元。因此，我們建議您拿大約 1.6 億歐元。

As you know, last quarter, we had a very limited number of tools that we had in revenue recognition. And there was a one-off effect, which drove up the ASP very, very high, but that was a one-off effect that we explained in the first quarter.

如您所知，上個季度我們在收入確認方面所擁有的工具數量非常有限。並且存在一次性效應，導致平均售價上漲非常高，但這是我們在第一季解釋過的一次性效應。

The second quarter is back to normal. And therefore, the expectation to use EUR 160 million for the remainder of the year is probably the right way to go.

第二季已恢復正常。因此，預計在今年剩餘時間內使用 1.6 億歐元可能是正確的做法。

Our next question comes from the line of Didier of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的迪迪埃。

Didier Scemama for Bank of America. I just wanted to double check one thing related to this fast shipment. So if I understand correctly, if fast shipments become the norm, that effectively means you are shaving off a month of cycle time. And obviously, it's a lower cost for you, obviously because you don't have to do the test on site.

美國銀行的 Didier Scemama。我只是想再確認一下與這次快速發貨有關的事情。所以如果我理解正確的話，如果快速發貨成為常態，那實際上意味著你正在縮短一個月的周期時間。顯然，這對您來說成本較低，因為您不必在現場進行測試。

But does that mean that there is no difference at that point from shipments and revenues? Is that the right way to think about it? And I've got a follow-up.

但這是否意味著出貨量和收入在那時沒有差別？這是正確的思考方式嗎？我還有後續行動。

Yes. Under the condition that the customers agree because the customers need to accept ownership and also the economic ownership of that machine when at least our factory here in the Netherlands. I mean that is currently not in our documentation. That's something probably that the accounts would require.

是的。在客戶同意的條件下，因為客戶需要接受所有權以及機器的經濟所有權，至少在我們位於荷蘭的工廠。我的意思是這目前不在我們的文檔中。這可能是會計所要求的。

But this is something where the customers will then say, "Fine. With all the [proof] data that we have gathered over this period of time, this is where we need to go through." But that would be the...

但客戶隨後會說：「好吧。憑藉我們在這段時間內收集的所有[證據]數據，這就是我們需要做的。」但那將是...

Yes. But to be clear, we're not there yet, right? So just to be clear, we have not -- we're not there yet. But what we see is that if, at a certain point in time, it becomes the standard; if at a certain point in time, it is completely accepted by everyone, including the customers, then we would think it would also be the right outcome, accounting-wise, for this to be accepted.

是的。但要明確的是，我們還沒有到達那裡，對嗎？所以需要明確的是，我們還沒有——我們還沒有到達那裡。但我們看到的是，如果在某個時間點它成為標準；如果在某個時間點，它被包括客戶在內的所有人完全接受，那麼我們認為從會計角度來看，這也是正確的結果。

But this whole track record, in order to get there, has not yet been established at this point. But we are working and hoping to get towards that point if indeed we determine that fast shipment is going to be the standard on a go-forward basis.

但為了實現這一目標，目前尚未建立完整的記錄。但如果我們確實確定快速發貨將成為未來的標準，那麼我們正在努力並希望實現這一點。

Understood. I've got a follow-up. It's on DUV. So a lot of questions I've got from investors are about your 600 DUV capacity targets and even at 375 that you are sort of talking about for 2023. Can you run us through the drivers of that uptake in demand? How much of that is driven by effectively lagging edge capacity, capital intensively going up?

明白了。我有一個後續行動。它在 DUV 上。因此，投資人向我提出了許多問題，這些問題都與你們的 600 台 DUV 產能目標有關，甚至與你們在 2023 年談到的 375 台 DUV 產能目標有關。您能否為我們講一下需求成長的驅動因素？其中有多少是由於有效落後的產能和資本密集度的上升所致？

So we see the like of Texas Instruments and others talking about capital intensity that is more than double their historical levels, in part because they can no longer buy bankrupt DRAM fabs for $0.10 on a dollar, in part because I suspect there is no or limited secondhand equipment available on the market.

因此，我們看到德州儀器等公司談論的資本密集度是其歷史水平的兩倍多，部分原因是他們再也無法以 0.10 美元的價格購買破產的 DRAM 晶圓廠，部分原因是我懷疑市場上沒有或只有有限的二手設備。

And how much of that is driven also by higher layer count for 3D NAND? If you could give us a sense of the structural shift in higher DUV to demand.

其中有多少是由 3D NAND 的更高層數所推動的？如果您能讓我們了解更高 DUV 需求的結構性轉變。

I wish I had something like a time warp machine bringing us to November 11 of this year because it's exactly what we're going to talk about. So -- but -- so I won't give you the data because we're working on the data -- actually we have some data here that we are actually looking at our -- using in our own models.

我希望有一台時間扭曲機之類的東西，能帶我們回到今年的 11 月 11 日，因為這正是我們要討論的內容。所以 — — 但是 — — 所以我不會給你數據，因為我們正在處理數據 — — 實際上我們這裡有一些數據，我們正在查看 — — 在我們自己的模型中使用。

But I think, generally, deep UV, what we've significantly underestimated is the demand for DPV-type nodes, whether it's 28-nanometer, 45, 65, 90, 0.18 micron, and the application space it's being used for. We actually have evidence that the number of products that our foundry customers are running on these nodes is significantly higher than 2 or 3 years ago.

但我認為，一般來說，深紫外線，我們嚴重低估了對 DPV 類型節點的需求，無論是 28 奈米、45、65、90、0.18 微米，以及它所針對的應用空間。我們實際上有證據表明，我們的代工客戶在這些節點上運行的產品數量明顯比 2 或 3 年前高得多。

So the number of products and is driven by the need for -- and that's data, yes, which I'm not going to share with you, and we need to find a way how we want to show that to you on November 11.

因此，產品的數量是由需求驅動的——這就是數據，是的，我不會與你們分享，我們需要找到一種方法，在 11 月 11 日向你們展示這些數據。

But the fact of the matter is that the number of products that are used in this 28-nanometer up to 0.18 micron even higher, yes, that a number of projects run are significantly higher over the last 2 or 3 years. And that's driven by the end markets.

但事實是，採用這種 28 奈米至 0.18 微米甚至更高的產品數量，是的，過去 2 或 3 年內運行的項目數量明顯增加。這是由終端市場所推動的。

And we talked about this, and I gave you that in my introductory remarks, whether it's automotive or whether it's Internet of Things, whether it's anything in a company with sensors, power IC, non-optical sensors, microcontrollers.

我們討論過這個問題，我在開場白中也提到過，無論是汽車還是物聯網，無論是公司中的任何東西，都有感測器、電源 IC、非光學感測器、微控制器。

That space has grown significantly because the nodes that I just mentioned, that -- exactly the nodes that are working for those applications. And this is what we are seeing today. And that's not going down.

這個空間已經顯著成長，因為我剛才提到的節點，正是為這些應用程式工作的節點。這就是我們今天所看到的。且這種情況不會減少。

And yes, I think, as Mehdi said, we are at record-high inventories. Well, not for everything, yes, and especially in that space. Yes, everywhere, I think, we see, inventory is growing, but they're growing at a moderate pace. So that's what we are seeing. And that's also where the demand from our customers come. It's anecdotal.

是的，我認為，正如 Mehdi 所說，我們的庫存處於創紀錄的高點。嗯，是的，不是針對所有事物，尤其是在那個領域。是的，我認為，我們看到各地的庫存都在成長，但成長速度適中。這就是我們所看到的。這也是我們客戶的需求。這是軼事。

But as a Chinese customer says, "I want to build a 12-inch [pattern]," won't do their planning. And they are going to do it at 12-inch wafer fab for 90-nanometer products. I said, "What are you going to use it for?, "Well, it's for automotive, yes? And it's for the energy transition, yes?" And that's a 12-inch fab. And that's 90, 9 and 0.

但正如一位中國客戶所說，“我想建造一個 12 英寸的 [圖案]”，這並不符合他們的計劃。他們將在 12 吋晶圓廠生產 90 奈米產品。我說：「你打算用它做什麼？」嗯，它是用於汽車的，對嗎？這是為了能源轉型，對嗎？ " 這是一座 12 吋晶圓廠。這是 90、9 和 0。

And we cannot get those tools out in the market because you are right. I mean the -- all DRAM fabs are not for sale anymore. Everything that we used to do to take systems out of the Memory fabs, and we use them in Logic and the IDM fabs. Those systems are not there anymore. They're all gone. So you'll have to buy new.

我們不能將這些工具推向市場，因為你是對的。我的意思是——所有 DRAM 晶圓廠都不再出售了。我們過去所做的一切都是為了將系統從記憶體工廠中取出，然後我們將它們用於邏輯和 IDM 工廠。那些系統已經不存在了。他們都走了。所以你必須購買新的。

These are all the trends that we will discuss in more detail at November 11. But for us, the trend is also clear. There are many, many more applications and products coming out of these nodes used for these applications, which are not leading-edge, yes, but which are basically everywhere. It's the Internet of Everything.

這些都是我們將在 11 月 11 日更詳細討論的趨勢。但對我們來說，趨勢也是明確的。這些節點上出現了許許多多的應用程式和產品，雖然它們不是尖端的，但基本上無所不在。這就是萬物互聯。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar of Cowen and Co.

下一個問題來自 Cowen and Co. 的 Krish Sankar。

I have two of them. First one for Peter. How to think about how much domestic China is going to grow this year? Last quarter, you said 20%. I want to find if that's -- what growth is going to be? And also, any color you can give on some press speculation on U.S. banning DPV shipments to China?

我有兩個。第一個是彼得。如何看待今年中國國內經濟將成長多少？上個季度，您說的是 20%。我想知道那會是什麼樣的成長？另外，您能解釋一下媒體關於美國禁止向中國出口 DPV 的一些猜測嗎？

And then a quick follow-up for Roger. See, hypothetically speaking, if supply constraints -- there were absolutely no supply constraints today, would there be no fast shipments anymore?

然後快速跟進一下羅傑的情況。看，假設一下，如果供應限制——今天完全沒有供應限制，那麼就不會再有快速出貨了？

Well, let me answer the China growth question. I think we said it last quarter. I think China grows with the same percentage as the rest of the world. And we grow -- or let's say, we grow 10%, which means, yes, all in all, every geographical ship to region grows with 10%, which includes China. They grow at 10%, just like rest of the world.

好吧，讓我來回答有關中國經濟成長的問題。我想我們上個季度就說過了。我認為中國的成長速度與世界其他國家相同。而且我們成長了——或者說，我們成長了 10%，這意味著，是的，總的來說，每個地理區域的船運量都成長了 10%，其中包括中國。他們的成長率為 10%，就像世界其他地區一樣。

I think on the U.S. banning, there are a lot of speculations that are also on media coverage on , which I know we said, is not new. I mean it's been on the table from time to time. It pops up and which is just a political position. We just have to wait what the politicians come up with.

我認為，關於美國的禁令，有很多猜測，媒體也有報道，我知道我們說過，這並不是什麼新鮮事。我的意思是這個問題時不時就會被提出來。它突然出現，這只是一種政治立場。我們只需等待政客拿出解決方案。

But having said that, I think we need to realize that China is an important player in the semiconductor industry and especially in the more, let's say, not mature nodes but in the more mainstream semiconductors.

但話雖如此，我認為我們需要認識到中國是半導體產業的重要參與者，特別是在更成熟的節點，但更主流的半導體領域。

It's everything that has to do with deep UV, yes? And it ranges from 20 nanometer up to 28, 45, 65. It's immersion, it is dry. And they're a very significant supplier of the global markets.

這一切都與深紫外線有關，對嗎？其範圍從 20 奈米到 28、45、65 奈米。它是浸沒式的，是乾式的。他們是全球市場非常重要的供應商。

So we just have to be careful what we are doing. That's just -- we've also been saying publicly that we cannot ignore the fact that China has a manufacturing capacity out there on DPV, which the world needs.

所以我們必須小心謹慎地做事。這只是——我們也一直公開表示，我們不能忽視中國在DPV方面擁有製造能力這一事實，而這正是世界所需要的。

As to the question on, hypothetically, if there were no supply constraints, would you stop doing fast shipments? Well, I think if there hadn't been supply constraints, we probably wouldn't have started fast shipments, I think, in reality. The problem, however, is we might actually like it.

至於這個問題，假設沒有供應限制，您會停止快速出貨嗎？嗯，我認為如果沒有供應限制，我們可能實際上不會開始快速發貨。但問題是我們可能真的喜歡它。

And this goes to the earlier point that Peter made. I mean, indeed, we do find out that we can omit a number of testing steps in the factory that ultimately do not, in any way, lead to the erosion of the quality of the product that we ship and therefore, doesn't lead to any problem upon installation.

這與彼得先前提出的觀點相符。我的意思是，我們確實發現，我們可以省略工廠中的許多測試步驟，這些步驟最終不會以任何方式導致我們運送的產品的品質下降，因此也不會導致安裝時出現任何問題。

We might actually like it so much because it gives us more [capital time], gives us more capacity. So that's why it's hard to answer that hypothetical question. Now that we've done it, we might actually like it. And we might actually, at a certain point in time, make it a standard.

我們可能確實非常喜歡它，因為它給了我們更多的[資本時間]，給了我們更多的能力。所以這就是為什麼這個假設性問題很難回答。現在我們已經做到了，我們可能真的會喜歡它。實際上，在某個時間點，我們可能會將其製定為標準。

Our next question comes from the line of Adithya Metuku of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Adithya Metuku。

I had two questions. Firstly, you talked about roughly 150 bps of inflation-related gross margin headwinds since the beginning of the year, so including the downgrade in -- we saw 3 months ago.

我有兩個問題。首先，您談到了自今年年初以來與通膨相關的毛利率阻力約為 150 個基點，包括我們 3 個月前看到的降級。

So when you look at your pricing contracts and renegotiation timelines, can you give us some color on when you expect tool repricing to offset this margin headwind?

因此，當您查看定價合約和重新談判時間表時，您能否告訴我們您預計何時工具重新定價可以抵消這種利潤逆風？

I'm just trying to get a sense for how much of the margin headwind I should back into my numbers for 2023 when I think about my gross margins for 2023. And then I've got a follow-up for -- on the fast shipments.

我只是想了解一下，當我考慮 2023 年的毛利率時，應該將多少利潤逆風納入 2023 年的數據中。然後我會跟進快速發貨的情況。

Yes. I think when you -- and I said it before, we don't have any formal agreement that could give us the, let's say, the supplier power to just have raised supplies to any level that we want. That's not the case. And you also need to look at the 150 basis points that we talked about this year, which really relates to short-term shocks and -- of which for instance, freight is a significant one.

是的。我認為，正如你之前所說，我們沒有任何正式協議可以賦予我們供應商權力，將供應量提高到我們想要的任何水平。事實並非如此。您還需要看看我們今年討論的 150 個基點，這實際上與短期衝擊有關，例如，貨運就是一個重要因素。

Freight cost, that quick . I mean, it's just gone through the roof, which, of course, we're in being close negotiation with the customer. "Hey, why don't you pick up the cost because it's the cost for -- we -- it's normally in the contract."

運費，就這麼快。我的意思是，它的價格已經漲到了最高點，當然，我們正在與客戶密切協商。 “嘿，你為什麼不承擔這筆費用呢，因為這是我們的費用，通常在合約裡。”

But this is something which is so extraordinary, where, say, "This does not make sense," which would be a relatively short-term fix, yes?

但這是一件非常特別的事情，比如說“這沒有意義”，這將是一個相對短期的解決辦法，對嗎？

Now there's another main reason for the 150 basis points is labor, especially in the service space. When you go to Asia and you go to Korea and to Taiwan, we've seen labor cost inflation of up to 20% this year.

現在，150 個基點的另一個主要原因是勞動力，尤其是在服務領域。當你去亞洲，例如韓國和台灣時，我們看到今年勞動成本通膨高達 20%。

And it's not planned. It's just 20 [exempt] because we are losing people hand over fist if we don't do it. So these are the short-term shocks that, of course, will also be corrected, yes, in the service contracts.

這不在計劃之內。只有 20 個 [豁免]，因為如果我們不這樣做，我們就會大量失去人才。所以這些都是短期衝擊，當然也會在服務合約中修正。

So having said that, those are really the short-term inflation shocks and the short-term fixes that I think we can get through with our customers. The bigger things are, of course, inflation for the longer term. And that largely is material because the material for our EUV systems has already been sourced. It's [over a year].

話雖如此，我認為這些實際上都是短期通膨衝擊和短期解決方案，我們可以與客戶一起解決。當然，更重要的問題是長期通貨膨脹。這在很大程度上是材料，因為我們的 EUV 系統的材料已經採購完畢。已經[一年多了]了。

So it's the inflationary pressure that we might see next year. So this is why the negotiations with the customers are about next year and the year beyond.

因此，明年我們可能會看到通膨壓力。這就是為什麼與客戶的談判是關於明年和後年。

So this is where I think it has to come to a fairness where we are looking at the unavoidable pressures above what I would call as a normal inflation percentage of 2%, 3% that we always take into consideration.

所以我認為這就是公平的地方，我們正在考慮不可避免的壓力，高於我們始終考慮的正常通膨率 2% 或 3%。

Anything above that, we just have to get compensated with our customers. And we're right in the middle of the negotiations on this issue. So you have to really split between short-term effects, short-term fixes, longer-term effects, longer-term fixes.

除此之外，我們只需向客戶進行補償即可。我們正處於這一問題的談判之中。因此，你必須真正區分短期影響、短期修復、長期影響、長期修復。

Got it. Understood. And just as a follow-up to Roger. When we look at these fast shipments, do your customers give you milestone payments on top of repayments?

知道了。明白了。這只是對羅傑的後續行動。當我們看到這些快速發貨時，您的客戶是否會在還款之外給您分期付款？

Or will they just pay you just when they sign off on the tool after you've done the testing at the customer side? I just want to better understand the cash flows on these tools.

或者他們只會在您在客戶端完成測試並簽署工具後才付款給您嗎？我只是想更了解這些工具的現金流。

Yes, Adi. There is, in essence, no cash flow impact from fast shipments because what happens is -- as you know, in a number of tools, we get down payments and the remainder, in essence, with the lion's share of our shipments is [upon] shipment. So upon shipment we get -- that we get said.

是的，阿迪。從本質上講，快速發貨不會對現金流產生影響，因為正如你所知，在許多工具中，我們會獲得首付款，而其餘部分，從本質上講，我們的大部分發貨都是在發貨時支付的。因此，在發貨時我們會收到——我們說過。

So that is not influenced by the fact that installation is going to happen later on. So no impact, I would say, on the profile of the cash flow.

因此這不會受到稍後安裝的影響。因此，我想說，這對現金流狀況沒有影響。

Got it. And then essentially, there are no milestone payments then on this fast shipment?

知道了。那麼從本質上講，對於這種快速發貨，沒有里程碑付款嗎？

No. No, no, there are not.

不，不，不，沒有。

And effectively, the invoice goes out at the same -- whether it's a fast shipment or not a fast shipment, the invoice goes out at the same point, it's upon shipment. So from a cash flow point of view, there is no [difference].

實際上，無論是快速裝運還是非快速裝運，發票都會在裝運時同時發出。因此從現金流的角度來看，並沒有[差異]。

And our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse of Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question, Peter, in the video remarks that you provided, I was intrigued by the fact that you thought your supply chain headwinds could be corrected by the end of '22. So can you please discuss your thoughts around that as well as how you are kind of dealing with some of the gas and energy issues in Germany? Any implications to your key supplier, Carl Zeiss?

彼得，我想第一個問題是，在您提供的影片評論中，您認為您的供應鏈逆風可以在 22 年底前得到糾正，這一事實讓我很感興趣。那麼，您能否談談您對此的看法以及您如何處理德國的一些天然氣和能源問題？這對你們的主要供應商卡爾蔡司有什麼影響嗎？

Yes. I think the supply chain headwind -- I mean it is an assumption, and the assumption is based on the fact when we look at the material escalations that are really delaying the output, we saw a peak, I think, at last month, but it's coming down a bit.

是的。我認為供應鏈逆風——我的意思是這是一個假設，而這個假設是基於這樣一個事實，當我們觀察真正延遲產出的材料升級時，我認為我們在上個月看到了一個峰值，但它正在下降一點。

And we're just trying to extrapolate that trend, which, of course, is dangerous because it's just -- you just look at the graph. And then if we follow that trend, then there could be a possibility by the end of the year, early next year, there could be a situation where we are more in control of those supply constraints.

我們只是試圖推斷這種趨勢，當然，這是危險的，因為它只是——你只需看一下圖表。如果我們遵循這一趨勢，那麼到今年年底或明年年初，我們可能會更好地控制這些供應限制。

Having said that, there are still guarantees because if you look at the supply chain, it comes down to the first-tier suppliers.

話雖如此，但還是有保證的，因為如果你看一下供應鏈，你會發現它歸結為一級供應商。

But if you really look through it, they -- often the issue is not in the first-tier supplier but in the second, the third and fourth tier, even further because of the base materials, yes? And that transparency is limited.

但仔細觀察就會發現，問題往往不在於一級供應商，而是在於二級、三級和四級供應商，甚至更遠，是因為基礎材料，對嗎？而且這種透明度是有限的。

We're pretty transparent, I think, in the first and the second tier. But beyond that, it becomes more difficult.

我認為，在第一層和第二層，我們是相當透明的。但除此之外，事情變得更加困難。

So we're just following the trend. And it's a [question] of trends extrapolation that we're doing that might give us, end of the year, beginning of next year, some more relief. But like I said, it's based on limited transparency that we currently have.

所以我們只是順應潮流。我們正在進行的趨勢推斷可能會為我們在今年年底或明年年初帶來一些緩解。但正如我所說，這是基於我們目前有限的透明度。

Now on the energy situation in Germany and especially on Carl Zeiss. I mean, of course, we are taking measures and have taken measures. I think the dependence of Carl Zeiss on gas is going to be limited. I mean they're switching to oil. They are not a big gas user either.

現在談談德國的能源狀況，特別是卡爾蔡司。我的意思是，當然，我們正在採取措施，而且已經採取措施了。我認為卡爾蔡司對天然氣的依賴將會有限。我的意思是他們正在轉向使用石油。他們也不是天然氣的大用戶。

But what is true in -- for the transparency, what I mentioned on our own supply chain is also probably true for the energy supply chain. How transparent is our insight into potential energy risk or gas risk in Germany? We don't know. I mean it could be far down in the third- or fourth- or fifth-layer suppliers.

但就透明度而言，我所提到的我們自己的供應鏈也可能適用於能源供應鏈。我們對德國潛在能源風險或天然氣風險的洞察有多透明？我們不知道。我的意思是它可能位於第三層、第四層或第五層供應商。

Having said that, I think government and also companies are on top of this issue. And there will be gas, whether gas comes from different sources, it is a matter of price, which is going to be an inflation issue.

話雖如此，我認為政府和公司都已經意識到了這個問題。而且會有天然氣，無論天然氣來自不同的來源，這都是價格的問題，這將是通貨膨脹問題。

But I think every supplier that we know of and that we have some insight into how it's working on securing their energy resource. And also, here some of our suppliers are actually claiming a very strategic status in getting preference.

但我認為，我們所了解的每一家供應商都對其如何確保能源資源安全有一些了解。而且，我們的一些供應商實際上聲稱自己在獲得優先權方面具有非常戰略性的地位。

So overall, work in process. I think we don't have the full transparency yet to give you a definite answer. But I think I'm more confident than I was a couple of months ago that our suppliers are doing the right thing.

總體而言，工作正在進行中。我認為我們還沒有完全透明地給你一個明確的答案。但我認為，與幾個月前相比，我更加相信我們的供應商正在做正確的事情。

That's helpful. As my follow-up, interesting that Memory orders actually accelerated 40-plus percent sequentially, I think, to a new record high for ASML, and that's amidst obviously weakness that we've heard in terms of CapEx trends from Hynix and Micron.

這很有幫助。我的後續問題是，有趣的是，我認為，記憶體訂單實際上比上一季度增長了 40% 以上，創下了 ASML 的新高，而這顯然是在我們從海力士和美光的資本支出趨勢中聽到的疲軟趨勢中發生的。

So I guess as you look at the Memory complex, obviously, you're benefiting from EUV technology buys, but would love to hear your overall thoughts there, both for technology focused on strengths and perhaps what kind of weakness you have in your build plans around new capacity adds.

因此，我想，當您查看內存綜合體時，顯然您會從 EUV 技術購買中受益，但我很想听聽您的總體想法，既針對專注於優勢的技術，也針對您在增加新容量的構建計劃中可能存在的弱點。

Yes. The weakness in our own build capacity, if I understand you correctly, C.J., are you asking this also what we see in our own build capacity? Because we don't see any weakness in our...

是的。我們自己的建設能力有弱點，如果我理解正確的話，C.J.，你問的也是我們在自己的建設能力中看到的弱點嗎？因為我們沒有發現我們的任何弱點...

No. No, no. This is just -- how you're thinking about Memory trend in your record, yes.

不，不，不。是的，這只是——您如何看待記錄中的記憶趨勢。

So basically weakness that our customers are talking about and to build capacity. It also goes back to what I said earlier. I mean, yes, EUV plays a significant role. The EUV transition in Memory, especially, is happening, and it's essential.

所以基本上我們的客戶談論的是弱點以及建立能力。這也回到了我之前所說的內容。我的意思是，是的，EUV 發揮著重要作用。尤其是記憶體領域的 EUV 轉型正在發生，而且至關重要。

When we talk about 8 new EUV fabs, some of them are Memory fabs, which is an essential part of the [ROP] transition. And EUV is critical, in that sense.

當我們談論 8 座新的 EUV 晶圓廠時，其中一些是記憶體晶圓廠，這是 [ROP] 轉型的重要組成部分。從這個意義上來說，EUV 至關重要。

Well, building these big EUR 15 billion-plus fabs, you need to fill those fabs with the latest and greatest technology, which is EUV -- is EUV-driven. But of course, you cannot make this device without immersion and without dry DPV. So -- and this is what our customers also told us.

好吧，建造這些價值 150 多億歐元的大型晶圓廠，你需要用最新、最先進的技術來填充這些晶圓廠，也就是 EUV——由 EUV 驅動。但當然，如果沒有浸沒和乾式 DPV，就無法製造這種設備。所以——這也是我們的客戶告訴我們的。

Yes, they are acknowledging the weakness. Yes, they are concerned about the inventories that are going up, but they're not backing off, which they didn't do in the past either. They're not backing off of their innovation roadmaps, which are essential for their future competitiveness, yes?

是的，他們承認自己的弱點。是的，他們擔心庫存增加，但他們並沒有退縮，過去他們也沒有這樣做。他們不會放棄對他們未來的競爭力至關重要的創新路線圖，對嗎？

So this is why they say, they pick up the phone and if they tell us, "Listen, we talk about weakness, but don't you guys dare to just change your shipment pattern to us?" So this is what I'm holding on to. That is why we have this big order back -- this order backlog, and we know where to ship to.

所以這就是為什麼他們拿起電話告訴我們，「聽著，我們談論弱點，但你們不敢改變對我們的運送模式嗎？」這就是我所堅持的。這就是為什麼我們有這麼大的訂單——這個訂單積壓，我們知道要運送到哪裡。

So yes, of course, there is a longer-term correlation between structural longer-term weakness and our -- or the ability of ASML to ship to those customers. But shorter term and longer term are currently two different things, yes?

所以，是的，當然，結構性長期弱點和我們的長期相關性——或者 ASML 向這些客戶發貨的能力。但短期和長期目前是兩碼事，對嗎？

All right. Thank you. If you are unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Before we sign off, I'd like to remind you that our Investor Day is currently planned to be held in Veldhoven on November 11 of this year. We hope you'll be able to join us.

好的。謝謝。如果您無法接通此電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。在我們結束之前，我想提醒您，我們的投資者日目前計劃於今年 11 月 11 日在費爾德霍芬舉行。我們希望您能加入我們。

Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

現在，我謹代表 ASML 感謝大家今天的參加。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Thank you. This now concludes the ASML Q2 2022 financial results. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。這就是 ASML 2022 年第二季財務表現的總結。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。