艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2022 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on July 20, 2022. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn over the call to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead, sir.

謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 2022 年 7 月 20 日舉行的 ASML 2022 第二季度財務業績電話會議。（操作員說明）我現在想將電話轉給 Skip Miller 先生。請繼續，先生。

Yes. Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2022 second quarter results.

是的。謝謝你，接線員。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是 ASML 的首席執行官 Peter Wennink；和我們的首席財務官 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 的 2022 年第二季度業績。

The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

此電話的長度為 60 分鐘，問題將按照收到的順序進行處理。該電話也通過互聯網在 asml.com 上進行直播。本次電話會議結束後不久，我們的網站上將提供管理層的開幕致辭和電話會議的重播。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理層在本次電話會議期間發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。

For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement, contained in today's press release and presentation, found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

對於風險因素的討論，我鼓勵您查看安全港聲明，該聲明包含在今天的新聞稿和演示文稿中，可在我們的網站 asml.com 和 ASML 的 20-F 表格年度報告和其他文件中找到證券交易委員會。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 進行簡要介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2022 results conference call. I hope all of you and your families are still healthy and safe. And before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide you with an overview and some commentary on the second quarter 2022, as well as provide our views of the coming quarters.

謝謝你，跳過。歡迎大家，感謝您加入我們的 2022 年第二季度業績電話會議。我希望你們所有人和你們的家人仍然健康平安。在我們開始問答環節之前，羅杰和我想為您提供關於 2022 年第二季度的概述和一些評論，並提供我們對未來幾個季度的看法。

And Roger will start with a review of our second quarter 2022 financial performance and some added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook.

羅傑將首先回顧我們 2022 年第二季度的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表一些補充評論，我將在介紹完結時對當前的商業環境和我們未來的商業前景發表一些補充評論。

Roger?

羅傑?

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the second quarter financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the third quarter of 2022. Net sales came in at EUR 5.4 billion, slightly above our guidance.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第二季度的財務業績，然後提供 2022 年第三季度的指導。淨銷售額為 54 億歐元，略高於我們的指導。

We shipped 14 EUV systems and recognized EUR 2 billion revenue from 12 EUV systems this quarter. Net system sales of EUR 4.1 billion, which was driven by Logic at 71% and remaining 29% from Memory.

本季度我們出貨了 14 個 EUV 系統，並從 12 個 EUV 系統確認了 20 億歐元的收入。系統淨銷售額為 41 億歐元，其中 Logic 佔 71%，內存佔 29%。

Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.3 billion above guidance. Gross margin for the quarter came in at 49.1%, which is at the lower end of our guidance, primarily due to increasing inflationary costs.

本季度安裝基礎管理的銷售額比預期高出 13 億歐元。本季度的毛利率為 49.1%，處於我們指引的下限，主要是由於通脹成本增加。

On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 789 million and SG&A expenses at EUR 222 million, as guided. Net income in Q2 was EUR 1.4 billion, representing 26.0% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 3.54.

根據指導，在運營費用方面，研發費用為 7.89 億歐元，SG&A 費用為 2.22 億歐元。第二季度的淨收入為 14 億歐元，占淨銷售額的 26.0%，每股收益為 3.54 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 4.4 billion. Moving to the order book. Q2 net system bookings came in at a record EUR 8.5 billion, reflecting the continued strong customer demand for both the advanced and mature nodes.

轉向資產負債表。我們在第二季度結束時的現金、現金等價物和短期投資為 44 億歐元。轉到訂單簿。第二季度淨系統預訂額達到創紀錄的 85 億歐元，反映出客戶對先進節點和成熟節點的持續強勁需求。

Strong order intake of EUR 5.4 billion for EUV 0.33 NA and EUV 0.55 NA system and EUR 3.1 billion for non-EUV systems.

EUV 0.33 NA 和 EUV 0.55 NA 系統的訂單量強勁，為 54 億歐元，非 EUV 系統的訂單量為 31 億歐元。

Total net system bookings was driven by Logic, 60% of the bookings, and Memory accounting for the remaining 40%.

總淨系統預訂量由 Logic 驅動，佔預訂量的 60%，而內存佔剩餘的 40%。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the third quarter of 2022. We are experiencing increasing supply chain constraints, which resulted in delayed system starts and requires us to increase the number of fast shipments in Q3, in order to supply our customers with systems in production as quickly as possible.

有了這個，我想談談我們對 2022 年第三季度的預期。我們正在經歷越來越多的供應鏈限制，這導致系統啟動延遲，並要求我們增加第三季度的快速發貨數量，以供應我們的盡快將系統投入生產。

With more fast shipments planned in the quarter, it will increase the amount of revenues delayed to subsequent quarters.

隨著本季度計劃更快速的出貨量，這將增加延遲到後續季度的收入金額。

We expect Q3 total net sales to be between EUR 5.1 billion and EUR 5.4 billion. This excludes around EUR 1.1 billion of net delay revenue for Q3 as a result of more fast shipments at the end of Q3 than at the end of Q2. We expect our Q3 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 1.4 billion.

我們預計第三季度總淨銷售額將在 51 億歐元至 54 億歐元之間。這不包括第三季度約 11 億歐元的淨延遲收入，原因是第三季度末的出貨量比第二季度末更快。我們預計我們的第三季度安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 14 億歐元。

Gross margin for Q3 is expected to be between 49% and 50%, similar to prior quarter. The expected R&D expenses for Q3 are around EUR 810 million, and SG&A is expected to come in at around EUR 235 million. Our estimated 2022 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 15% and 16%.

第三季度的毛利率預計在 49% 至 50% 之間，與上一季度相似。第三季度的預期研發費用約為 8.1 億歐元，SG&A 預計約為 2.35 億歐元。我們預計 2022 年的年化有效稅率預計在 15% 至 16% 之間。

In Q2, ASML paid a final dividend of EUR 3.17 per ordinary share. Together with the interim dividend paid in 2021, this results in a total dividend for 2021 of EUR [5.15] per ordinary share. We plan to grow our dividend and will move from a biannual to a quarterly dividend payout, starting in Q3 this year.

在第二季度，ASML 支付了每股普通股 3.17 歐元的末期股息。連同 2021 年支付的中期股息，這導致 2021 年的總股息為每股普通股 [5.15] 歐元。我們計劃增加我們的股息，並將從今年第三季度開始從每半年一次的股息支付轉變為每季度一次的股息支付。

This will provide more timely return of cash to our investors and more evenly balance our cash across the year. First quarterly interim dividend over 2022 will be EUR 1.37 per ordinary share and will be made payable on August 12, 2022.

這將為我們的投資者提供更及時的現金回報，並使我們全年的現金更加平衡。 2022 年第一季度中期股息為每股普通股 1.37 歐元，將於 2022 年 8 月 12 日支付。

In Q2 2022, we repurchased around 2.3 million shares for a total amount of around EUR 1.2 billion. Total shares bought underneath 2021-23 program until end of Q2 is around 12.4 million shares for a total amount of around EUR 7.9 billion.

2022 年第二季度，我們回購了約 230 萬股股票，總金額約為 12 億歐元。截至第二季度末，根據 2021-23 計劃購買的總股票約為 1240 萬股，總金額約為 79 億歐元。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

有了這個，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, revenue and profitability for the quarter basically came within guidance. The expected sales in Q3 are to be at similar guided range as Q2 as increasing supply constraints drive more [fast] shipments and delay revenue [addition] to subsequent quarters.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑強調的那樣，本季度的收入和盈利能力基本上在指導範圍內。第三季度的預期銷售額將與第二季度處於相似的指導範圍內，因為日益增加的供應限制推動了更多[快速]出貨並將收入[增加]延遲到後續季度。

Looking at the more near-term market dynamics, we see a couple of mixed messages. Some customers are indicating they are seeing signs of slowing down -- or slowing demand in certain consumer-driven market segments, primarily PCs and smartphones. Other market segments like high-performance computing and automotive are still seeing strong demand.

從更近期的市場動態來看，我們看到了一些喜憂參半的信息。一些客戶表示，他們看到了放緩的跡象——或某些消費者驅動的細分市場的需求放緩，主要是個人電腦和智能手機。高性能計算和汽車等其他細分市場的需求仍然強勁。

Litho tool utilization in our customers is still at very high levels, while we're also seeing chip inventory levels trending towards pre-COVID levels. The demand for our systems still significantly exceeds supply this year, and we see no change to this demand picture.

我們客戶的光刻工具利用率仍處於非常高的水平，同時我們也看到芯片庫存水平趨向於 COVID 之前的水平。今年對我們系統的需求仍然大大超過供應，我們認為這種需求情況沒有變化。

We are planning to ship a record number of systems, but we are faced with an increasing number of supply constraints, which, as it seems today, are likely to continue throughout the year. In an effort to recover from these delays, we're increasing the number of fast shipments to get systems to customers as quickly as possible.

我們計劃交付創紀錄數量的系統，但我們面臨著越來越多的供應限制，正如今天看來，這種限制很可能會持續一整年。為了從這些延誤中恢復過來，我們正在增加快速發貨的數量，以盡快將系統交付給客戶。

And as a reminder, a fast shipment process skips some of the testing in our factory and final testing and formal acceptance then takes place at the customer side. This leads to a deferral of revenue recognition for those shipments until formal customer acceptance but does provide our customers with early access to wafer output capacity.

提醒一下，快速發貨過程會跳過我們工廠的一些測試，然後在客戶方進行最終測試和正式驗收。這導致這些出貨量的收入確認推遲到客戶正式接受之前，但確實為我們的客戶提供了早期獲得晶圓輸出能力的機會。

As far as shipments delays the revenue recognition to subsequent quarters, we are seeing more delayed revenue that will move into next year.

至於出貨量將收入確認延遲到後續季度，我們看到更多延遲的收入將進入明年。

The value of fast shipments in 2022 leading to revenue recognition in 2023 is expected to increase from around EUR 1 billion, as previously communicated, to about EUR 2.8 billion, an increase of EUR 1.8 billion. This then also leads to EUR 1.8 billion lower revenue recognition in 2022, and we therefore now expect year-on-year revenue growth of around 10%.

2022 年快速出貨的價值導致 2023 年收入確認，預計將從之前傳達的約 10 億歐元增加到約 28 億歐元，增加 18 億歐元。這也導致 2022 年收入確認減少 18 億歐元，因此我們現在預計收入同比增長約 10%。

As a reminder, we began the year expecting a revenue growth of around 20% or approximately EUR 22.3 billion and EUR 1 billion value of fast shipments at the end of this year. We are now expecting a revenue growth of around 10%, which is approximately EUR 20.5 billion and EUR 2.8 billion value of fast shipments at the end of the year.

提醒一下，我們年初預計今年年底收入增長約 20% 或約 223 億歐元，快速出貨價值 10 億歐元。我們現在預計收入增長 10% 左右，即年底的快速出貨價值約為 205 億歐元和 28 億歐元。

So the total business value -- the total business volume for 2022 is essentially unchanged.

因此，總業務價值——2022 年的總業務量基本保持不變。

For our EUV business, we still expect to ship 55 systems this year. As a result of the higher number of far shipments, we now expect recognized EUV revenue this year on 40 systems to be around EUR 6.4 billion, which is similar to the revenue last year.

對於我們的 EUV 業務，我們仍預計今年將出貨 55 個系統。由於遠方出貨量增加，我們現在預計今年 40 個系統的 EUV 收入將達到 64 億歐元左右，與去年的收入相似。

Compared to last quarter's view, the number of EUV fast shipments in 2022 that will now be recognized as revenue in 2023 has increased by 9 systems to a total of 15 systems, with a sales value of around EUR 2.4 billion.

與上一季度的觀點相比，現在將被確認為 2023 年收入的 2022 年 EUV 快速出貨數量增加了 9 個系統，達到總共 15 個系統，銷售額約為 24 億歐元。

In our DPV and application business, we still expect significant growth both in immersion and dry systems as well as continued strong demand for metrology and inspection systems. Due to a higher number of fast shipments on DPV systems, we now expect a revenue of around EUR 8.6 billion or an increase of over 15%.

在我們的 DPV 和應用業務中，我們仍然預計浸入式和乾式系統的顯著增長以及對計量和檢測系統的持續強勁需求。由於 DPV 系統的快速出貨量增加，我們現在預計收入約為 86 億歐元，增幅超過 15%。

For the Installed Base Management business, service revenue will continue to scale with the growing installed base of systems. Customers will continue to look for upgrade opportunities to improve the performance of systems in their fabs that will be limited by high utilization levels, which will dictate their ability to install upgrades. We still expect 2022 Installed Base revenue to grow around 10% year-on-year.

對於安裝基礎管理業務，服務收入將隨著系統安裝基礎的增長而繼續擴大。客戶將繼續尋找升級機會，以提高其晶圓廠系統的性能，而這將受到高利用率水平的限制，這將決定他們安裝升級的能力。我們仍預計 2022 年 Installed Base 收入將同比增長 10% 左右。

Regarding the market segments, there has been no change in customer demand as the majority of the additional EUR 1.8 billion of delayed revenue was with EUV, and therefore, it relates to our Logic segments. We now expect Logic system revenue to be up around 5% year-on-year and Memory system revenue to be up around 20% year-over-year.

關於細分市場，客戶需求沒有變化，因為額外的 18 億歐元延遲收入中的大部分來自 EUV，因此，它與我們的邏輯細分市場有關。我們現在預計邏輯系統收入將同比增長約 5%，內存系統收入將同比增長約 20%。

On gross margin, we started the year with an expectation of a gross margin for 2022 of around 53%, and we adjusted this to 52% last quarter due to increased inflationary costs. There are a few developments that have a further impact on our expected gross margin for the year.

在毛利率方面，我們年初預計 2022 年的毛利率約為 53%，由於通脹成本增加，我們在上個季度將其調整為 52%。有一些發展會對我們今年的預期毛利率產生進一步影響。

First, the higher delayed revenue, an increase of EUR 1.8 billion, relates to our higher-margin EUV and emerging systems. Secondly, the supply chain issues, we do delayed system starts, and therefore, we will have lower fixed cost coverage on a lower number of system starts this year compared to what we had planned last quarter.

首先，更高的延遲收入增加了 18 億歐元，這與我們利潤率更高的 EUV 和新興系統有關。其次，供應鏈問題，我們確實延遲了系統啟動，因此，與我們上季度的計劃相比，今年的系統啟動數量減少了，我們的固定成本覆蓋率也會降低。

Fixed cost also increased due to our plans to ramp capacity faster in preparation for what still seems to be a good growth year in 2023. And finally, strong inflationary effects related to material cost of freight and labor continue to impact our cost of sales.

固定成本也增加了，因為我們計劃更快地提高產能，為 2023 年似乎仍然是一個良好的增長年做準備。最後，與運費和勞動力材料成本相關的強烈通脹效應繼續影響我們的銷售成本。

Combination of these effects resulted in an expected '22 gross margin between 49% and 50%. We're currently in discussion with our customers and suppliers to find a fair way to share in these inflationary cost increases.

這些影響的結合導致預期的 '22 毛利率在 49% 和 50% 之間。我們目前正在與我們的客戶和供應商進行討論，以找到一種公平的方式來分擔這些通貨膨脹成本增加。

It is important to emphasize that the reasons for the lower margin guidance are a result of short-term shocks in our ecosystem and can be adjusted over time in collaboration with our ecosystem partners. Therefore, our longer-term gross margin ambition of 54% to 56% in 2025, as communicated during Investor Day last year, is still [valid].

重要的是要強調，較低的利潤率指導的原因是我們生態系統中的短期衝擊的結果，並且可以與我們的生態系統合作夥伴合作隨著時間的推移進行調整。因此，我們在 2025 年的長期毛利率目標為 54% 至 56%，正如去年投資者日期間所傳達的那樣，仍然[有效]。

Longer term, if we look at the secular drivers, the global megatrends driving our industry are still in place at fueling demand for both advanced and mature nodes.

從長遠來看，如果我們看一下長期驅動因素，推動我們行業的全球大趨勢仍然存在，從而推動了對先進和成熟節點的需求。

Expanding application space for semiconductors and secular trends are driving long-term structural demand. Growth in the automotive market is very strong as semiconductor content scales with increasing automation and electrification.

半導體應用空間的擴大和長期趨勢正在推動長期的結構性需求。隨著自動化和電氣化程度的提高，半導體含量不斷擴大，汽車市場的增長非常強勁。

Customers are also indicating increasing demand for semiconductors as part of the green energy transition and the build-out of the smart grid.

客戶還表示，作為綠色能源轉型和智能電網建設的一部分，對半導體的需求不斷增加。

The demand for more mature technology nodes is furthermore driven by Internet of Things, fueling the demand for sensors, power ICs and actuators. Customers are seeing very strong growth due to demand from high-performance computing applications.

物聯網進一步推動了對更成熟技術節點的需求，推動了對傳感器、電源 IC 和執行器的需求。由於高性能計算應用程序的需求，客戶看到了非常強勁的增長。

As applications require higher performance and lower power, we see the energy-efficient path to transistor growth driving the need for larger die sizes. Finally, there are a number of fabs being planned or are already in progress, driven primarily by technological sovereignty investments and subsidy schemes next to increased foundry competition.

由於應用需要更高的性能和更低的功耗，我們看到了晶體管增長的節能路徑推動了對更大芯片尺寸的需求。最後，有許多晶圓廠正在計劃或正在建設中，主要是受技術主權投資和補貼計劃的推動，以及代工競爭的加劇。

Growth in semiconductor end markets and increasing lithography intensity are pushing the demand for our products and services. This is evident in our quarterly order flow of over EUR 6 billion for the past 5 quarters and a record order intake of EUR 8.5 billion this past quarter.

半導體終端市場的增長和光刻強度的提高正在推動對我們產品和服務的需求。這從我們過去 5 個季度超過 60 億歐元的季度訂單流和上一季度創紀錄的 85 億歐元訂單量中可以看出。

Our backlog has grown to over EUR 33 billion, and we expect continued high order intake this quarter. Almost 85% of this backlog is for EUV and immersion, which is planned for advanced nodes. The [market outlook] this year and next continues to exceed supply.

我們的積壓訂單已經增長到超過 330 億歐元，我們預計本季度的訂單量將繼續保持高位。幾乎 85% 的積壓用於 EUV 和沈浸式，計劃用於高級節點。 【後市】今明兩年繼續供大於求。

There is a clear concern in the market regarding recessionary fears and the impact this could have on the map. Of course, if we were to go into a significant recession, we would not be immune to this, but we don't expect our '22 business to be impacted. And also for 2023, given our backlog, we believe we are well covered.

市場對經濟衰退的擔憂及其可能對地圖產生的影響存在明顯的擔憂。當然，如果我們陷入嚴重衰退，我們將無法倖免，但我們預計我們的 22 年業務不會受到影響。而且對於 2023 年，鑑於我們的積壓工作，我們相信我們已經得到了很好的保障。

[Investors] keep stressing that we will not cut CapEx for litho despite current market conditions and uncertainties.

[投資者] 一直強調，儘管當前的市場狀況和不確定性，我們不會削減 Litho 的資本支出。

So assuming that we have the supply chain issues addressed by the end of the year or early next year, we're still positive that we should be able to turn the envisaged capacity for 2023 of more than 60 EUV systems and more than 375 DPV systems into another healthy growth year for ASML.

因此，假設我們在今年年底或明年初解決了供應鏈問題，我們仍然樂觀地認為，我們應該能夠在 2023 年將超過 60 個 EUV 系統和超過 375 個 DPV 系統的預期產能轉變為進入 ASML 又一個健康增長的一年。

And as mentioned in April, we're actively engaging with our supply chain to add capacity so that we will be able to have the shipment capacity in 2025 of around 90 EUV 0.33 NA systems and around 600 DPV systems.

如 4 月所述，我們正在積極與我們的供應鏈合作以增加產能，以便我們能夠在 2025 年擁有約 90 個 EUV 0.33 NA 系統和約 600 個 DPV 系統的出貨量。

We're also discussing with our supply chain partners to secure a shipment capacity of around 20 EUV 0.55 High-NA systems in the medium term. Our 2025 capacity targets as well as updates to our longer-term scenarios will be addressed at our Investor Day later this year.

我們還在與我們的供應鏈合作夥伴進行討論，以確保中期內約 20 個 EUV 0.55 High-NA 系統的出貨量。我們的 2025 年產能目標以及對長期情景的更新將在今年晚些時候的投資者日上討論。

So in summary, although we are currently experiencing obvious supply chain challenges, we're still working to maximize output to meet the strong customer demand for [Mesa] fast shipments. We still expect demand to exceed supply this year and next.

綜上所述，儘管我們目前正面臨著明顯的供應鏈挑戰，但我們仍在努力最大限度地提高產量，以滿足客戶對 [Mesa] 快速發貨的強烈需求。我們仍然預計今年和明年需求將超過供應。

And even though there are currently clear macroeconomic concerns, we expect strong continued demand for semiconductors in support of the ongoing digital transformation. We're working to increase our capacity next year with a plan to further increase this by 2025, as communicated last quarter.

儘管目前存在明顯的宏觀經濟擔憂，但我們預計對半導體的強勁需求將持續支持正在進行的數字化轉型。正如上個季度所傳達的，我們正在努力提高明年的產能，併計劃到 2025 年進一步提高產能。

We remain confident in the opportunity this provides for our future growth, which we plan to update you during our Investor Day on November 11. I really hope to see you there.

我們仍然對這為我們未來的增長提供的機會充滿信心，我們計劃在 11 月 11 日的投資者日期間向您更新。我真的希望在那裡見到您。

With that, we would be happy to take your questions.

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible. Now operator, could we have your final instructions and the first question, please?

謝謝你，羅杰和彼得。接線員將立即指導您問答環節的協議。 （操作員說明）這將使我們能夠接觸到盡可能多的呼叫者。現在接線員，我們可以給您最後的指示和第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

You talked about your customer conversations indicating that even in a moderate recession, they're still running your tools. And so maybe you don't see cancellations, but I guess, how do we think about the delays and -- potentially for delays in delivery times? And how do you think about that relative to your backlog, I guess, is obviously well covering 2023 at this point?

您談到您的客戶對話表明，即使在溫和的經濟衰退中，他們仍在運行您的工具。因此，也許您看不到取消，但我想，我們如何考慮延遲以及 - 可能會延遲交貨時間？我猜，相對於您的積壓工作，您如何看待這一點，目前顯然很好地涵蓋了 2023 年？

Yes. I think the delays in delivery times, we're trying to -- we're not trying, we're actually doing. We are helping our customers with the fast shipments, which actually means that if you look at our production value, so the value of the system coming out of our factory with and without fast shipments, that's actually, as I said, not as fast as we planned, but it's definitely growing. It is ramping.

是的。我認為交貨時間的延遲，我們正在嘗試 - 我們沒有嘗試，我們實際上正在做。我們正在幫助我們的客戶快速發貨，這實際上意味著如果你看一下我們的生產價值，那麼無論是否有快速發貨，從我們工廠出來的系統的價值，實際上，正如我所說，不如我說的那麼快我們計劃，但它肯定在增長。它正在加速。

So the delay in the delivery time is really a delay in the revenue recognition. I mean we are delivering. This is why we include -- this is why we go to fast shipments. So -- and as we can point out and just looking at our production value coming out of the factory, the second half is higher than the first half.

所以交貨時間的延遲實際上是收入確認的延遲。我的意思是我們正在交付。這就是我們包括在內的原因——這就是我們採用快速發貨的原因。所以——正如我們可以指出的那樣，只要看看我們出廠的產值，下半年就高於上半年。

And this is also exactly why we are still working on getting a production capacity in our factory that helps us to ship over 60 EUV systems next year and over 375 DPV systems because as you pointed out, the backlog is there. And the customers say, "Whatever you do, please ship those systems," because we are under shipment -- we are undershipping the demand.

這也是為什麼我們仍在努力在我們的工廠獲得生產能力，以幫助我們明年運送超過 60 個 EUV 系統和超過 375 個 DPV 系統，因為正如你所指出的，積壓在那裡。客戶說，“無論你做什麼，請運送這些系統”，因為我們正在發貨——我們的需求不足。

So we are shipping. It's unfortunately not as fast as we would like to. So our output ramp coming out of the factory could have been higher. That's because of the supply chain constraints that we currently see.

所以我們正在發貨。不幸的是，它沒有我們想要的那麼快。所以我們從工廠出來的產量可能會更高。這是因為我們目前看到的供應鏈限制。

But we are executing according to the backlog and according to plan and according to customer demand. And that's where we are today. And then this issue of revenue recognition delay, but that is an accounting thing.

但是我們是按照積壓的工作，按照計劃，按照客戶的需求來執行的。這就是我們今天所處的位置。然後是收入確認延遲的問題，但這是一個會計問題。

And Joe, just to underscore what Peter is saying. So the delay that we're having is purely based on constraints, right, on constraints in the supply chain. It's not at the request of customers through -- quite to the contrary, right? The customers are still pushing very much for shipments.

喬，只是為了強調彼得所說的話。因此，我們所面臨的延遲純粹是基於限制，對，供應鏈中的限制。這不是應客戶的要求而通過的——恰恰相反，對吧？客戶仍然非常迫切地要求發貨。

And therefore, as Peter said, we're turning to the -- we have been turning through the fast-ship mode. And that has not changed at all. So we don't have customers knocking on our door saying, "Could we have the tools there?" That has just not happened.

因此，正如彼得所說，我們正在轉向 - 我們一直在轉向快速發貨模式。這一點都沒有改變。所以我們不會有客戶敲我們的門說，“我們那裡有工具嗎？”那還沒有發生。

Absolutely not.

絕對不。

Got it. And then as a follow-up, is EUV capacity for next year already covered by the backlog? And then can you remind us when you start shipping the 3800E next year, how do we think about your ability to do the fast shipment? I think isn't there a period where you're going to have to establish a baseline for that tool before you can fast ship?

知道了。然後作為後續，明年的 EUV 產能是否已經被積壓？然後您能否提醒我們明年開始出貨 3800E 時，我們如何看待您的快速出貨能力？我認為在您可以快速發布之前，您是否需要為該工具建立基線？

Yes. So the backlog of EUV is well over 100 at this stage. So we talked about EUV capacity for next year of over 60. Of course, we still have the second half to go. But yes, the answer is well, well covered for next year.

是的。所以現階段EUV的積壓量遠超100個。所以我們談到明年的EUV產能超過60。當然，我們還有下半年要走。但是，是的，答案很好，很好地涵蓋了明年。

In terms of the 3600 versus the 3800, I think the lion's share of the tools that will be shipped next year will be 3600. The 3800 will be a fairly small number, and all of those will -- and those will ship in the second half. But the lion's share also of the second half will be 3600.

就 3600 與 3800 而言，我認為明年將要發貨的工具的最大份額將是 3600。3800 將是一個相當小的數量，所有這些都將 - 並且將在第二年發貨一半。但下半年的最大份額也將是 3600。

Yes, Joe. And I think, also last quarter, we -- as we said, we expected that by the end of Q2, we would have been covered until the end of 2022, and that turned out to be correct.

是的，喬。而且我認為，同樣在上個季度，我們 - 正如我們所說，我們預計到第二季度末，我們將在 2022 年底之前得到保障，事實證明這是正確的。

Our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini of SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Just a quick follow-up to that 100 EUV systems that are in your backlog. Peter, if there are about 15 system revenue recognition that are pushed out into '23, does that mean that at some point, it will catch up and you would potentially be recognizing revenue for 75 systems, 66 that was expected to be shipped in '23 and 15 systems that are slipping from '22 to '23? And I have a follow-up.

只需快速跟進您積壓的 100 個 EUV 系統。彼得，如果有大約 15 個系統收入確認被推到 23 年，這是否意味著在某個時候，它會趕上來，您可能會確認 75 個系統的收入，其中 66 個預計將在 ' 23 和 15 系統從 22 年滑到 23 年？我有一個後續行動。

Right. Roger, you want to...

正確的。羅傑，你想...

Yes. I could take it. Mehdi, the fast shipment -- of course, at some stage, you would expect that the effect of fast shipment is somehow going to reverse itself. And there are multiple ways how fast shipments can reverse itself.

是的。我可以接受。 Mehdi，快速出貨——當然，在某個階段，你會期望快速出貨的效果會以某種方式逆轉。並且有多種方式可以讓貨物快速逆轉。

One way how it could reverse itself is that we simply start to slow down fast shipments and are going back to the way we've done it before. And in that way, you would then indeed get revenue -- get more revenue recognition out of the previous quarter than what you push into the next quarter. So that's one way.

它可以逆轉的一種方式是，我們只是開始放慢快速發貨的速度，並回到我們以前的方式。這樣一來，您確實會獲得收入——從上一季度獲得的收入確認比您推入下一季度的收入要多。所以這是一種方式。

Another way, quite frankly, is if indeed, at a certain point in time, fast shipment becomes the standard and it turns out that the installation at the customer, frankly, we're currently experiencing, is not experiencing any issues.

坦率地說，另一種方式是，如果確實在某個時間點，快速發貨成為標準，那麼坦率地說，我們目前正在經歷的客戶安裝沒有遇到任何問題。

And that's what we're seeing right now. Right now, we see that by -- even though there is a number of tests that we're not doing at the factory, we see that we're not exporting problems into the field.

這就是我們現在看到的。現在，我們看到了——儘管我們沒有在工廠進行許多測試，但我們看到我們沒有將問題輸出到現場。

So to the extent that, that has corroborated, in essence, that means that those tests that we used to do in the factory do not have a lot of value or might not have any value at all.

因此，在某種程度上，這從本質上證實，這意味著我們過去在工廠進行的那些測試沒有太多價值，或者可能根本沒有任何價值。

So when it then becomes the standard, then we're also going to turn to the question, might we actually then get factory acceptance even with a few of these tests eliminated. And as a result of that, we could go back to the model of having revenue recognition upon shipment rather than upon installation.

因此，當它成為標準時，我們也將轉向問題，即使取消了其中一些測試，我們是否真的可以得到工廠的認可。因此，我們可以回到在發貨時而不是在安裝時確認收入的模式。

Of course, we need to have a fact pattern to back that up, right? So there's still work to be done there. So those are two potential outcomes. Because at a certain stage, I think it is logical that you would expect some of these fast shipments effectively reversed and as a result of that, to get benefit from previous quarters rather than see it go into the next quarter.

當然，我們需要有一個事實模式來支持這一點，對吧？所以那裡還有工作要做。所以這是兩個潛在的結果。因為在某個階段，我認為你會期望這些快速出貨中的一些有效逆轉並因此從前幾個季度中受益而不是看到它進入下一個季度是合乎邏輯的。

Timing is difficult to project, when exactly that is and when you might see the reversal. But it's not lost, right? And anything that we push out of the year at some point, we'll be able to deliver.

時間很難預測，確切的時間是什麼時候，什麼時候你可能會看到逆轉。但它並沒有丟失，對吧？我們在某個時候推出的任何東西，我們都將能夠交付。

Yes. And to your math, I mean it's a simple math, anything we will ship in terms of EUV next year, whether it's 60 or 55 or 65 or whatever number it is, that is the number. And if we can recognize all those shipments, then of course, everything we've pushed out of 2022 into 2023 will come on top, yes.

是的。對於你的數學，我的意思是這是一個簡單的數學，明年我們將根據 EUV 發布的任何東西，無論是 60 或 55 或 65 或任何數字，這就是數字。如果我們能夠識別所有這些出貨量，那麼當然，我們從 2022 年推遲到 2023 年的所有貨物都將排在首位，是的。

Okay. And then a follow-up question for both Peter and Roger. I'm just trying to understand how you're planning. And in case there is more risk, how are you planning to mitigate the risk? [Two], you highlighted the weaker end-market demand from PCs and smartphones. That effectively accounts for half of the semiconductor industry.

好的。然後是彼得和羅傑的後續問題。我只是想了解你的計劃。如果風險更大，您打算如何降低風險？ [二]，您強調了個人電腦和智能手機的終端市場需求疲軟。這實際上佔了半導體行業的一半。

You talked about -- your customers' customer have inventories that are at all-time high. And there are uncertain factors. Yes, hyperscalers are doing well, but that was expected to be seasonally strong in the second half.

您談到了-您的客戶的客戶的庫存處於歷史最高水平。並且存在不確定因素。是的，超大規模企業表現不錯，但預計下半年會出現季節性強勁表現。

So as I look into the first half of next year, given on [nonfactor], what is ASML thinking or doing to mitigate the downside risk if, in fact, there is some pushout in the equivalent delivery scheduled for the first half of ['23]?

因此，當我展望明年上半年時，考慮到 [非因素]，如果事實上，在 [' 23]？

Well, what we are doing, if that would happen, which we don't think is going to happen, I'll explain you later why, then we -- as you know from our cost of goods, 80% to 85% of our cost of goods is in the supply chain.

好吧，我們正在做什麼，如果會發生，我們認為不會發生，我稍後會解釋為什麼，然後我們——正如你從我們的商品成本中知道的那樣，80% 到 85%我們的商品成本在供應鏈中。

So actually, it means that we would have to spread that pressure like we did in any other downcycle in the past. We will spread that in a now larger supply chain. So what? So we will just adjust our output. That's what we normally would do.

所以實際上，這意味著我們必須像過去在任何其他下行週期中那樣分散壓力。我們將把它傳播到現在更大的供應鏈中。所以呢？所以我們將調整我們的輸出。這就是我們通常會做的事情。

And the reason why I think 2023 is still going to be good and is going to be a growth year is -- and you refer to EUV, has to do with the fact that when we look at the EUV shipments, so where are we shipping to? Till the end of next year, we will ship to 8 new EUV fabs, 8, yes, which are largely, you could say, fabs on an average at least 40,000 per month capacity.

我認為 2023 年仍然會很好並且將成為增長年的原因是——你指的是 EUV，這與我們查看 EUV 出貨量的事實有關，那麼我們在哪裡發貨至？到明年年底，我們將向 8 家新的 EUV 晶圓廠發貨，8 家，是的，你可以說，這些晶圓廠主要是平均每月至少 4 萬個產能的晶圓廠。

Those fabs needs [are -- is] way over 300,000 wafer starts per month capacity that's being built, that actually needs EUV tools. And not only EUV tools, they need immersion tools and they need dry tools, yes? And those are all fabs which are in the advanced nodes, which are the leading-edge fabs for our customers.

這些晶圓廠需要 [是 - 是] 每月正在建造的超過 300,000 片晶圓的產能，實際上需要 EUV 工具。不僅是 EUV 工具，他們還需要浸入式工具和乾式工具，是嗎？這些都是先進節點的晶圓廠，是我們客戶的前沿晶圓廠。

And yes, there may be a slowdown, but the innovation won't stop. And I'm pretty sure that our customers, if you ask all of them -- just refer to TSMC's comments a couple of days ago. They have a strong belief in the digital transformation.

是的，可能會放緩，但創新不會停止。而且我很確定我們的客戶，如果你問他們所有人 - 只是參考台積電幾天前的評論。他們對數字化轉型有著堅定的信念。

So any short-term shocks in the demand cycle -- and you have to compare with the long-term view that our customers have on the whole digital transformation, and that's why they are building fabs. 8 EUV fabs till the end of next year need tools, and they need immersion and they need dry. And so this is why we have a big backlog.

因此，需求週期中的任何短期衝擊——你必須與我們的客戶對整個數字化轉型的長期觀點進行比較，這就是他們建造晶圓廠的原因。到明年年底的 8 家 EUV 晶圓廠需要工具，它們需要浸泡和乾燥。這就是我們有大量積壓的原因。

So you have to -- clearly, customers are going to adjust some of their CapEx and are going to make choices when there is a recessionary environment or when there's a slowdown in the demand.

所以你必須 - 很明顯，客戶將調整他們的一些資本支出，並在經濟衰退或需求放緩時做出選擇。

But a longer-term view, yes -- or what is needed, going forward, bearing in mind that they're dealing with a supplier which has, by far, the longest lead time, which has, to be honest, traumatized them over the last 2 years with respect to their capacity, yes, they come to take tools. That's at least our strong conviction today.

但是從長遠來看，是的——或者需要什麼，繼續前進，記住他們正在與一個供應商打交道，到目前為止，這個供應商的交貨時間最長，老實說，這給他們帶來了創傷最近兩年就他們的能力而言，是的，他們來拿工具。這至少是我們今天的堅定信念。

And also bear in mind, Mehdi, that on -- at least on the EUV tools and a number of immersion tools, we get quite significant down payments. So before a customer decides to either cancel or push out, I mean that's a bit illogical, if you realize that they put up already so much money to get the order.

還要記住，Mehdi，至少在 EUV 工具和一些沉浸式工具上，我們得到了相當可觀的首付。因此，在客戶決定取消或推遲之前，我的意思是這有點不合邏輯，如果你意識到他們已經付出了這麼多錢來獲得訂單。

So I think the likelihood, particularly in combination with the points that Peter made, I think, is low.

所以我認為可能性很低，特別是結合彼得提出的觀點，我認為。

And yes, the way we are organized, we have quite a bit of flexibility. We're still hiring many, many people. We have flexibility in our supply chain. We have a strong balance sheet.

是的，我們的組織方式有很大的靈活性。我們還在招聘很多很多人。我們的供應鏈具有靈活性。我們擁有強大的資產負債表。

So I think from that vantage point, I think the company is well prepared. But the likelihood of this kicking in at this stage, given the data points I just mentioned, we see a [flow].

所以我認為從這個有利的角度來看，我認為公司已經做好了充分的準備。但是，鑑於我剛才提到的數據點，在這個階段發生這種情況的可能性，我們看到了一個[流程]。

And on cancellations, as you know, Mehdi, in all the time I've been with the company, the only cancellations I can remember were -- was a customer actually canceled orders because they wanted to replace that tool type with a new tool type, is the kind of cancellations that we are getting. So -- and this is actually not what we've seen in the past.

取消訂單，如你所知，Mehdi，在我一直在公司工作的所有時間裡，我能記得的唯一取消是 - 客戶實際上取消了訂單，因為他們想用新的工具類型替換該工具類型, 是我們得到的那種取消。所以 - 這實際上不是我們過去看到的。

Having said that, there's a lot of talk -- and I said it in my introductory comments. There's a lot of talk about recessionary fears. And nobody can really give a good insight or foresight into how deep a recession would be.

話雖如此，有很多討論——我在介紹性評論中說過。有很多關於衰退恐懼的討論。沒有人能真正對衰退的深度給出很好的洞察力或遠見。

When it's a deep, deep recession that everybody gets it, and I think we have different problems than customer pushouts, yes? When it's a moderate recession, then I would have to refer back to what I said earlier in my answer to your question: I think we're going to ship those machines because they need it.

當每個人都經歷嚴重的嚴重衰退時，我認為我們遇到的問題與客戶推出的問題不同，是嗎？當它是溫和的衰退時，我將不得不回顧我之前在回答你的問題時所說的話：我認為我們將運送這些機器，因為它們需要它。

And our next question comes from the line of from Francois Bouvignies of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Francois Bouvignies。

I have maybe one clarification. It's on the deep UV for 2023. So Peter, if I look last quarter, you expected to reach, I think, the full deep UV capacity in '23 at 375 versus a demand of 600. Now since last quarter, we experienced a slowdown that you flagged as well and especially maybe on the Memory side, which is a bit more aggressive since last quarter.

我可能有一個澄清。它是 2023 年的深紫外線。所以彼得，如果我看上個季度，我認為，你預計將在 23 年達到 375 的全部深紫外線容量，而需求為 600。現在自上個季度以來，我們經歷了放緩您也標記了，尤其是在內存方面，自上個季度以來更具侵略性。

So in light of this change and maybe that the Memory represents a meaningful part of deep UV revenues, do you still expect to reach 375 tools next year?

因此，鑑於這種變化，也許內存代表了深紫外收入的重要組成部分，您是否仍然期望明年達到 375 種工具？

Yes. I think -- like I said also in my introductory comments, we don't see -- yes, we are not -- of course, not there. So we listen and we also read what customers have actually said and -- especially to specific Memory customers that listen, we see a slowdown, especially in the consumer segment, on PCs and on smartphones.

是的。我認為——就像我在介紹性評論中所說的那樣，我們沒有看到——是的，我們沒有——當然，沒有。因此，我們傾聽並閱讀客戶實際所說的話，特別是對於傾聽的特定內存客戶，我們看到了放緩，特別是在消費領域、個人電腦和智能手機上。

But they hasten to pick up the phone and said one thing, "I don't think you can give our machines to other people because of this. We want those machines." for the reasons I just gave as an answer to the question that Mehdi just asked a few minutes ago.

但他們趕緊拿起電話，說了一句：“我認為你不能因為這個把我們的機器給別人，我們想要那些機器。”出於我剛剛回答 Mehdi 幾分鐘前剛剛提出的問題的原因。

So yes, I mean we see it, we hear it, but we also listen to what customers say. And they said, "We have these strategic investment projects, and we need those machines." And whether they're are Memory customers in Korea or in the U.S. or in China, for that matter, they want those machines because they still aren't getting what they planned.

所以是的，我的意思是我們看到它，我們聽到它，但我們也聽客戶說什麼。他們說，“我們有這些戰略投資項目，我們需要這些機器。”無論他們是韓國、美國還是中國的內存客戶，就此而言，他們都想要這些機器，因為他們仍然沒有得到他們計劃的東西。

Now could that demand go down? Yes, it could go down. But there's still a significant gap, as you pointed out, between what we can make and what they ask from us.

現在這種需求會下降嗎？是的，它可能會下降。但是，正如您所指出的，在我們能做的和他們向我們提出的要求之間仍然存在很大的差距。

Now -- and that can come down, but before it hits that 375 and before it hits the real strategic investment that we are doing in all these fabs, we need to have a real slowdown. And that's anybody's guess at this moment in time.

現在 - 這可能會下降，但在它達到 375 之前以及在它達到我們對所有這些晶圓廠所做的真正戰略投資之前，我們需要真正放緩。這是目前任何人的猜測。

Okay. And maybe my quick follow-up. How should we think about the pricing of the tools in '23? I mean given the inflation, is it something that you will negotiate, maybe, the pricing, which is EUV may be more driven by your innovation and update of tools? But what about the deep UV pricing strategy, going forward?

好的。也許我的快速跟進。我們應該如何考慮 23 年工具的定價？我的意思是考慮到通貨膨脹，您是否會協商定價，EUV 可能更多地受到您的創新和工具更新的驅動？但是，未來的深紫外定價策略呢？

Well, I think it applies to both two types. I think when you look at the purchase orders, the purchase orders are an agreement with a buyer and a seller. And over the last couple of decades, we never had to deal with this very short-term sharp-rising inflation. So in fact, we don't have any formal agreement in contracts that would allow us to just jack up the price.

嗯，我認為它適用於這兩種類型。我認為當您查看採購訂單時，採購訂單是與買方和賣方達成的協議。在過去的幾十年裡，我們從未不得不應對這種非常短期的急劇上升的通貨膨脹。所以事實上，我們在合同中沒有任何正式協議可以讓我們抬高價格。

However, we are in discussions with customers and already, we have some indications that customer, "Yes, we understand your predicaments and your issues." So we're in discussion with those customers and then to see what's fair.

但是，我們正在與客戶進行討論，並且已經有一些跡象表明客戶，“是的，我們了解您的困境和問題。”因此，我們正在與這些客戶進行討論，然後看看什麼是公平的。

But clearly, for everything that's [nondeal], going forward, that's clear that we will adjust our pricing to just cover the inflationary pressures wherever they will go. I think that's also clear.

但很明顯，對於所有 [nondeal] 的未來，很明顯，我們將調整我們的定價，以彌補通脹壓力。我想這也很清楚。

But there is a -- we need to actually -- and we are in discussions with our customers to say, "Listen, this is a short-term [shock] effect. So how are we going to deal with it?" And that's happening as we speak.

但是有一個 - 我們實際上需要 - 我們正在與我們的客戶討論說，“聽著，這是一個短期的 [衝擊] 效應。那麼我們將如何處理它？”在我們說話的時候，這正在發生。

Our next question comes from the line of Alexander Duval at Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alexander Duval。

A quick one on gross margins. Given that a certain amount of fixed costs are being recognized this year for some of the EUV and DUV systems that will have related revenue recognition not until next year, which obviously has a negative impact on gross profitability this year, should we expect that this is going to translate into a margin boost next year? And how large could that be?

一個快速的毛利率。鑑於今年要確認一些 EUV 和 DUV 系統的一定數量的固定成本，這些系統要到明年才能確認相關收入，這顯然對今年的毛利潤產生了負面影響，我們是否應該預期這是明年會轉化為利潤率提升嗎？那可能有多大？

If you could help us understand a bit the moving parts and quantify that perhaps, that would be very much appreciated.

如果您能幫助我們了解一些運動部件並對其進行量化，那將非常感激。

Alexander, the principal, in and by itself, is correct, right? So to the extent that we have less starts this year, that means that you get less fixed cost coverage. And of course, to the extent that you catch up on that, of course, you get a bit more fixed cost coverage on that. So that is true.

校長亞歷山大就其本身而言是正確的，對吧？因此，就我們今年的開工數量而言，這意味著您獲得的固定成本覆蓋範圍更少。當然，就你趕上這一點而言，當然，你會得到更多的固定成本覆蓋。所以這是真的。

That's -- on an EUV system, that's a couple of million that you're looking at EUR 4 million or EUR 5 million approximately of the amount there for a system that you look at in terms of the fixed cost coverage. So that is part of it.

那是 - 在 EUV 系統上，這是幾百萬歐元，你正在尋找 400 萬歐元或大約 500 萬歐元的金額，對於你在固定成本覆蓋範圍內查看的系統。所以這是其中的一部分。

Of course, it goes back to an earlier question that we had, which is at what [stage] do you expect that the effect of fast shipment is going to reverse itself, right? So that's what it is related to. But then you have a little bit of an indication on the direction of travel and the amount of all.

當然，這可以追溯到我們之前提出的一個問題，即您認為快速發貨的影響會在什麼[階段]發生逆轉，對嗎？所以這就是它的關係。但是你對行進的方向和所有的數量有一點點的指示。

Our next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc of Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Aleksander Peterc。

So just one clarification first and then a quick follow-up. The clarification would be, when I listen to your comments, Roger, it seems to me that you imply that a couple of years out, we'll either see the delayed revenue recognition going away naturally as you no longer have to fast ship or you think that there will be a change in revenue recognition so that, that final tests will no longer be required because it is proven largely as redundant.

因此，請先進行澄清，然後進行快速跟進。澄清一下，當我聽到你的評論時，羅傑，在我看來，你暗示幾年後，我們要么看到延遲的收入確認自然消失，因為你不再需要快速發貨，要么你認為收入確認將發生變化，因此不再需要最終測試，因為它在很大程度上被證明是多餘的。

So should we think that, say, by 2025, we no longer will have this variable buffer of revenue that is hard to estimate and that changes revenue prospects quite a lot? And then I have a quick follow-up.

那麼我們是否應該認為，比如說，到 2025 年，我們將不再擁有這種難以估計的可變收入緩衝，從而極大地改變收入前景？然後我有一個快速跟進。

To be honest, I don't -- I hope we don't have to wait all that long for that. But at a certain point in time, it is, as I said, either this becomes standard practice. And as it becomes standard practice, then I think we've also been able to persuade customers that this works and that we're not exporting problems from the factory into the field.

老實說，我不——我希望我們不必為此等待那麼久。但在某個時間點，正如我所說，這要么成為標準做法。隨著它成為標準做法，我認為我們也能夠說服客戶這是可行的，並且我們不會將問題從工廠輸出到現場。

And then I think we should be in a position to also get customer sign-off when the tests are done here in the factory. And then we should also be able to get revenue recognition there.

然後我認為，當測試在工廠完成時，我們也應該能夠獲得客戶的認可。然後我們也應該能夠在那裡獲得收入確認。

Or we determine that we're no longer going to do fast shipments and that we're going to go back to what we did before. I think it's pretty likely that it will be either one of those two outcomes. And therefore, I think, at a certain point in time, you will see the fast shipment reverse itself.

或者我們決定不再進行快速發貨，我們將回到以前的做法。我認為這很可能是這兩種結果之一。因此，我認為，在某個時間點，您會看到快速發貨本身會發生逆轉。

To be honest, I don't hope that that's going to last another 3 years because the communication with you guys will be significantly enhanced if we no longer have to go through all the adjustments around fast shipment.

老實說，我不希望再持續 3 年，因為如果我們不再需要圍繞快速發貨進行所有調整，與你們的溝通將大大加強。

And that's a realistic assumption that I would have. And I hope that, at least somewhere next year, we're going to be in a position to determine whether we're going to go left or right.

這是我會做的一個現實的假設。我希望，至少在明年的某個地方，我們將能夠確定我們是向左還是向右。

And you have to realize the discussion with this has only got one goal, and that is to reduce the cycle time from the moment that we start a system until we get it accepted at the customer side. That's the only goal.

你必須意識到，與此相關的討論只有一個目標，那就是減少從我們啟動系統到我們得到客戶方接受的周期時間。這是唯一的目標。

And the only reason why customers say, "Ship me the tool." is because we now have evidence, because we're doing this for 9 months now, that, as Roger said earlier, the installation time between a fast shipment and a non-fast shipment is exactly the same.

客戶說“把工具寄給我”的唯一原因。是因為我們現在有證據，因為我們現在這樣做了 9 個月，正如 Roger 之前所說，快速發貨和非快速發貨之間的安裝時間完全相同。

So what we've effectively done, we have reduced the cycle time from the start of the system to the installation at the customer side with about a month.

因此，我們有效地完成了從系統啟動到客戶端安裝的周期時間縮短了大約一個月。

Well, if this is something that we can make standard practice and perhaps we need another year or so or a couple of quarters to come to the conclusion that, that is the predictable outcome. Then we could also go to the customers and say, "Hey, then we should act -- basically change the acceptance term in our factory by just doing less test." And I think we're just building the approved data, but that would effectively mean a reduction of cycle time, and that's to the benefit of both ASML and the customer.

好吧，如果這是我們可以製定的標準做法，也許我們還需要一年左右或幾個季度才能得出結論，這是可預測的結果。然後我們也可以去找客戶說，“嘿，那我們應該採取行動——基本上改變我們工廠的驗收期限，只做更少的測試。”而且我認為我們只是在構建批准的數據，但這實際上意味著減少週期時間，這對 ASML 和客戶都有好處。

So it's not an accounting thing. Unfortunately, accounting is what we have to deal with. But just from a business point of view, it makes a lot of sense.

所以這不是會計問題。不幸的是，會計是我們必須處理的。但僅從商業角度來看，這很有意義。

Very clear. And a quick follow-up. Just on what's going on in terms of EUV average selling prices. Your guidance for the year seems to imply this will land for the year at EUR 160 million per system approximately as H1 was significantly higher, I think, around EUR 172 million.

非常清楚。并快速跟進。就 EUV 平均售價而言。您對今年的指導似乎暗示今年每個系統將達到 1.6 億歐元左右，因為我認為 H1 明顯更高，約為 1.72 億歐元。

What is driving the lower ASP in the second half? Is it just a question of mix and features or anything else is in play here?

是什麼推動了下半年平均售價下降？這只是混合和功能的問題，還是這裡有其他任何東西在起作用？

No. I think it really was an anomaly in the first quarter. So in the second quarter, you would see that the ASP is EUR 163 million. So that's around the EUR 160 million that we say, that we advise you to take.

不，我認為這確實是第一季度的異常情況。因此，在第二季度，您會看到 ASP 為 1.63 億歐元。因此，這大約是我們建議您接受的 1.6 億歐元。

As you know, last quarter, we had a very limited number of tools that we had in revenue recognition. And there was a one-off effect, which drove up the ASP very, very high, but that was a one-off effect that we explained in the first quarter.

如您所知，上個季度，我們在收入確認方面擁有的工具數量非常有限。並且有一個一次性效應，它推動了 ASP 非常非常高，但這是我們在第一季度解釋的一次性效應。

The second quarter is back to normal. And therefore, the expectation to use EUR 160 million for the remainder of the year is probably the right way to go.

第二季度恢復正常。因此，預計在今年剩餘時間內使用 1.6 億歐元可能是正確的選擇。

Our next question comes from the line of Didier of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的迪迪埃。

Didier Scemama for Bank of America. I just wanted to double check one thing related to this fast shipment. So if I understand correctly, if fast shipments become the norm, that effectively means you are shaving off a month of cycle time. And obviously, it's a lower cost for you, obviously because you don't have to do the test on site.

美國銀行的 Didier Scemama。我只是想仔細檢查與這次快速發貨有關的一件事。因此，如果我理解正確，如果快速發貨成為常態，那實際上意味著您將縮短一個月的周期時間。顯然，這對您來說成本更低，顯然是因為您不必在現場進行測試。

But does that mean that there is no difference at that point from shipments and revenues? Is that the right way to think about it? And I've got a follow-up.

但這是否意味著那時出貨量和收入沒有區別？這是正確的思考方式嗎？我有後續行動。

Yes. Under the condition that the customers agree because the customers need to accept ownership and also the economic ownership of that machine when at least our factory here in the Netherlands. I mean that is currently not in our documentation. That's something probably that the accounts would require.

是的。在客戶同意的條件下，因為至少我們在荷蘭的工廠，客戶需要接受該機器的所有權和經濟所有權。我的意思是目前不在我們的文檔中。這可能是帳戶需要的東西。

But this is something where the customers will then say, "Fine. With all the [proof] data that we have gathered over this period of time, this is where we need to go through." But that would be the...

但這就是客戶會說，“好吧。有了我們在這段時間內收集的所有[證明]數據，這就是我們需要經歷的地方。”但那將是...

Yes. But to be clear, we're not there yet, right? So just to be clear, we have not -- we're not there yet. But what we see is that if, at a certain point in time, it becomes the standard; if at a certain point in time, it is completely accepted by everyone, including the customers, then we would think it would also be the right outcome, accounting-wise, for this to be accepted.

是的。但需要明確的是，我們還沒有到那裡，對吧？所以要明確一點，我們還沒有——我們還沒有。但我們看到的是，如果在某個時間點，它成為標準；如果在某個時間點，它被包括客戶在內的每個人完全接受，那麼我們認為這也是正確的結果，從會計角度來看，它被接受了。

But this whole track record, in order to get there, has not yet been established at this point. But we are working and hoping to get towards that point if indeed we determine that fast shipment is going to be the standard on a go-forward basis.

但是，為了到達那裡，這整個記錄在這一點上尚未建立。但是，如果我們確實確定快速發貨將成為前進的標準，我們正在努力並希望實現這一目標。

Understood. I've got a follow-up. It's on DUV. So a lot of questions I've got from investors are about your 600 DUV capacity targets and even at 375 that you are sort of talking about for 2023. Can you run us through the drivers of that uptake in demand? How much of that is driven by effectively lagging edge capacity, capital intensively going up?

明白了。我有後續行動。它在 DUV 上。所以我從投資者那裡得到的很多問題都是關於你的 600 個 DUV 產能目標，甚至是你所說的 2023 年的 375 個。你能告訴我們需求增長的驅動因素嗎？其中有多少是由有效落後的產能、資本密集上漲推動的？

So we see the like of Texas Instruments and others talking about capital intensity that is more than double their historical levels, in part because they can no longer buy bankrupt DRAM fabs for $0.10 on a dollar, in part because I suspect there is no or limited secondhand equipment available on the market.

所以我們看到德州儀器和其他公司談論的資本密集度是其歷史水平的兩倍多，部分原因是他們不能再以 0.10 美元的價格購買破產的 DRAM 工廠，部分原因是我懷疑沒有或有限市場上出售的二手設備。

And how much of that is driven also by higher layer count for 3D NAND? If you could give us a sense of the structural shift in higher DUV to demand.

其中有多少是由 3D NAND 的更高層數驅動的？如果您能讓我們了解更高 DUV 向需求的結構性轉變。

I wish I had something like a time warp machine bringing us to November 11 of this year because it's exactly what we're going to talk about. So -- but -- so I won't give you the data because we're working on the data -- actually we have some data here that we are actually looking at our -- using in our own models.

我希望我有類似時間扭曲機器之類的東西，可以將我們帶到今年 11 月 11 日，因為這正是我們要討論的內容。所以 - 但是 - 所以我不會給你數據，因為我們正在處理數據 - 實際上我們這裡有一些數據，我們實際上正在查看我們的 - 在我們自己的模型中使用。

But I think, generally, deep UV, what we've significantly underestimated is the demand for DPV-type nodes, whether it's 28-nanometer, 45, 65, 90, 0.18 micron, and the application space it's being used for. We actually have evidence that the number of products that our foundry customers are running on these nodes is significantly higher than 2 or 3 years ago.

但我認為，一般來說，深紫外，我們嚴重低估的是對 DPV 類型節點的需求，無論是 28 納米、45、65、90、0.18 微米，以及它所用於的應用空間。實際上，我們有證據表明，我們的代工廠客戶在這些節點上運行的產品數量明顯高於 2 或 3 年前。

So the number of products and is driven by the need for -- and that's data, yes, which I'm not going to share with you, and we need to find a way how we want to show that to you on November 11.

所以產品的數量是由需求驅動的——這是數據，是的，我不會與你分享，我們需要找到一種方法，如何在 11 月 11 日向你展示。

But the fact of the matter is that the number of products that are used in this 28-nanometer up to 0.18 micron even higher, yes, that a number of projects run are significantly higher over the last 2 or 3 years. And that's driven by the end markets.

但事實是，在這個 28 納米到 0.18 微米的產品中使用的產品數量甚至更高，是的，在過去 2 或 3 年中運行的許多項目明顯更高。這是由終端市場驅動的。

And we talked about this, and I gave you that in my introductory remarks, whether it's automotive or whether it's Internet of Things, whether it's anything in a company with sensors, power IC, non-optical sensors, microcontrollers.

我們談到了這個，我在介紹性發言中給了你這個，無論是汽車還是物聯網，無論是傳感器，電源IC，非光學傳感器，微控制器的公司中的任何東西。

That space has grown significantly because the nodes that I just mentioned, that -- exactly the nodes that are working for those applications. And this is what we are seeing today. And that's not going down.

這個空間已經顯著增長，因為我剛才提到的節點——正是為這些應用程序工作的節點。這就是我們今天所看到的。這並沒有下降。

And yes, I think, as Mehdi said, we are at record-high inventories. Well, not for everything, yes, and especially in that space. Yes, everywhere, I think, we see, inventory is growing, but they're growing at a moderate pace. So that's what we are seeing. And that's also where the demand from our customers come. It's anecdotal.

是的，我認為，正如 Mehdi 所說，我們的庫存量創歷史新高。好吧，不是所有的事情，是的，尤其是在那個領域。是的，我認為，我們看到，在任何地方，庫存都在增長，但它們的增長速度適中。這就是我們所看到的。這也是我們客戶需求的來源。這是軼事。

But as a Chinese customer says, "I want to build a 12-inch [pattern]," won't do their planning. And they are going to do it at 12-inch wafer fab for 90-nanometer products. I said, "What are you going to use it for?, "Well, it's for automotive, yes? And it's for the energy transition, yes?" And that's a 12-inch fab. And that's 90, 9 and 0.

但正如一位中國客戶所說，“我想建立一個 12 英寸的 [圖案]”，不會做他們的計劃。他們將在 12 英寸晶圓廠生產 90 納米產品。我說，“你打算用它做什麼？”嗯，它是用於汽車的，是嗎？它是為了能源轉型，是嗎？”那是一個 12 英寸的晶圓廠。那是 90、9 和 0。

And we cannot get those tools out in the market because you are right. I mean the -- all DRAM fabs are not for sale anymore. Everything that we used to do to take systems out of the Memory fabs, and we use them in Logic and the IDM fabs. Those systems are not there anymore. They're all gone. So you'll have to buy new.

我們無法將這些工具推向市場，因為您是對的。我的意思是——所有的 DRAM 工廠都不再出售了。我們過去所做的一切都是為了將系統從內存工廠中取出，並在 Logic 和 IDM 工廠中使用它們。那些系統已經不存在了。他們都走了。所以你必須買新的。

These are all the trends that we will discuss in more detail at November 11. But for us, the trend is also clear. There are many, many more applications and products coming out of these nodes used for these applications, which are not leading-edge, yes, but which are basically everywhere. It's the Internet of Everything.

這些都是我們將在 11 月 11 日更詳細討論的趨勢。但對我們來說，趨勢也很清楚。有很多很多的應用程序和產品來自這些用於這些應用程序的節點，它們不是前沿的，是的，但它們基本上無處不在。這是萬物互聯。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar of Cowen and Co.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Co. 的 Krish Sankar。

I have two of them. First one for Peter. How to think about how much domestic China is going to grow this year? Last quarter, you said 20%. I want to find if that's -- what growth is going to be? And also, any color you can give on some press speculation on U.S. banning DPV shipments to China?

我有兩個。第一個給彼得。怎麼想今年中國國內會增長多少？上個季度，你說 20%。我想知道那是否是——增長會是什麼？此外，對於美國禁止向中國出口 DPV 的一些媒體猜測，你能給出任何顏色嗎？

And then a quick follow-up for Roger. See, hypothetically speaking, if supply constraints -- there were absolutely no supply constraints today, would there be no fast shipments anymore?

然後是羅傑的快速跟進。看，假設性地說，如果供應限制——今天絕對沒有供應限制，會不會再沒有快速發貨了？

Well, let me answer the China growth question. I think we said it last quarter. I think China grows with the same percentage as the rest of the world. And we grow -- or let's say, we grow 10%, which means, yes, all in all, every geographical ship to region grows with 10%, which includes China. They grow at 10%, just like rest of the world.

好吧，讓我來回答中國增長的問題。我想我們上個季度已經說過了。我認為中國的增長速度與世界其他地區相同。我們增長了——或者比方說，我們增長了 10%，這意味著，是的，總而言之，每艘通往地區的地理船舶都增長了 10%，其中包括中國。與世界其他地區一樣，它們以 10% 的速度增長。

I think on the U.S. banning, there are a lot of speculations that are also on media coverage on , which I know we said, is not new. I mean it's been on the table from time to time. It pops up and which is just a political position. We just have to wait what the politicians come up with.

我認為關於美國的禁令，媒體報導中也有很多猜測，我知道我們說過，這並不新鮮。我的意思是它不時出現在桌面上。它突然出現，這只是一個政治立場。我們只需要等待政客們的想法。

But having said that, I think we need to realize that China is an important player in the semiconductor industry and especially in the more, let's say, not mature nodes but in the more mainstream semiconductors.

但話雖如此，我認為我們需要意識到中國是半導體行業的重要參與者，尤其是在更多，比如說，不是成熟的節點，而是在更主流的半導體中。

It's everything that has to do with deep UV, yes? And it ranges from 20 nanometer up to 28, 45, 65. It's immersion, it is dry. And they're a very significant supplier of the global markets.

這與深紫外線有關，是嗎？它的範圍從 20 納米到 28、45、65 納米。它是浸入式的，它是乾燥的。他們是全球市場的重要供應商。

So we just have to be careful what we are doing. That's just -- we've also been saying publicly that we cannot ignore the fact that China has a manufacturing capacity out there on DPV, which the world needs.

所以我們只需要小心我們正在做的事情。只是——我們也一直公開表示，我們不能忽視中國在 DPV 上擁有世界需要的製造能力這一事實。

As to the question on, hypothetically, if there were no supply constraints, would you stop doing fast shipments? Well, I think if there hadn't been supply constraints, we probably wouldn't have started fast shipments, I think, in reality. The problem, however, is we might actually like it.

至於關於假設的問題，如果沒有供應限制，你會停止快速發貨嗎？好吧，我認為如果沒有供應限制，我認為實際上我們可能不會開始快速發貨。然而，問題是我們可能真的喜歡它。

And this goes to the earlier point that Peter made. I mean, indeed, we do find out that we can omit a number of testing steps in the factory that ultimately do not, in any way, lead to the erosion of the quality of the product that we ship and therefore, doesn't lead to any problem upon installation.

這就是彼得之前提出的觀點。我的意思是，事實上，我們確實發現我們可以省略工廠中的一些測試步驟，這些步驟最終不會以任何方式導致我們運送的產品質量下降，因此不會導致安裝時出現任何問題。

We might actually like it so much because it gives us more [capital time], gives us more capacity. So that's why it's hard to answer that hypothetical question. Now that we've done it, we might actually like it. And we might actually, at a certain point in time, make it a standard.

我們實際上可能非常喜歡它，因為它給了我們更多的[資本時間]，給了我們更多的能力。所以這就是為什麼很難回答這個假設的問題。現在我們已經完成了，我們可能真的喜歡它。實際上，我們可能會在某個時間點將其作為標準。

Our next question comes from the line of Adithya Metuku of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Adithya Metuku。

I had two questions. Firstly, you talked about roughly 150 bps of inflation-related gross margin headwinds since the beginning of the year, so including the downgrade in -- we saw 3 months ago.

我有兩個問題。首先，您談到自年初以來與通脹相關的毛利率逆風約為 150 個基點，因此包括我們在 3 個月前看到的降級。

So when you look at your pricing contracts and renegotiation timelines, can you give us some color on when you expect tool repricing to offset this margin headwind?

因此，當您查看您的定價合同和重新談判時間表時，您能否告訴我們您希望工具重新定價何時能夠抵消這種利潤逆風？

I'm just trying to get a sense for how much of the margin headwind I should back into my numbers for 2023 when I think about my gross margins for 2023. And then I've got a follow-up for -- on the fast shipments.

當我考慮到 2023 年的毛利率時，我只是想了解我應該在 2023 年的數據中恢復多少利潤逆風。然後我有一個跟進——快速出貨量。

Yes. I think when you -- and I said it before, we don't have any formal agreement that could give us the, let's say, the supplier power to just have raised supplies to any level that we want. That's not the case. And you also need to look at the 150 basis points that we talked about this year, which really relates to short-term shocks and -- of which for instance, freight is a significant one.

是的。我認為，當你 - 我之前說過時，我們沒有任何正式協議可以讓我們，比方說，供應商有能力將供應量提高到我們想要的任何水平。事實並非如此。你還需要看看我們今年談到的 150 個基點，這確實與短期衝擊有關——例如，運費是一個重要的衝擊。

Freight cost, that quick . I mean, it's just gone through the roof, which, of course, we're in being close negotiation with the customer. "Hey, why don't you pick up the cost because it's the cost for -- we -- it's normally in the contract."

運費，這麼快。我的意思是，它剛剛過了屋頂，當然，我們正在與客戶進行密切的談判。 “嘿，你為什麼不拿起成本，因為這是我們的成本——通常在合同中。”

But this is something which is so extraordinary, where, say, "This does not make sense," which would be a relatively short-term fix, yes?

但這是非常不尋常的事情，比如說，“這沒有意義”，這將是一個相對短期的解決方案，是嗎？

Now there's another main reason for the 150 basis points is labor, especially in the service space. When you go to Asia and you go to Korea and to Taiwan, we've seen labor cost inflation of up to 20% this year.

現在，150 個基點的另一個主要原因是勞動力，尤其是在服務領域。當你去亞洲，去韓國和台灣時，我們已經看到今年勞動力成本上漲高達 20%。

And it's not planned. It's just 20 [exempt] because we are losing people hand over fist if we don't do it. So these are the short-term shocks that, of course, will also be corrected, yes, in the service contracts.

而且它沒有計劃。這只是 20 [豁免]，因為如果我們不這樣做，我們就會失去人們的拳頭。因此，這些是短期衝擊，當然，也將在服務合同中得到糾正。

So having said that, those are really the short-term inflation shocks and the short-term fixes that I think we can get through with our customers. The bigger things are, of course, inflation for the longer term. And that largely is material because the material for our EUV systems has already been sourced. It's [over a year].

話雖如此，這些確實是短期通脹衝擊和短期修復，我認為我們可以與客戶一起度過難關。當然，更大的事情是長期的通貨膨脹。這在很大程度上是重要的，因為我們的 EUV 系統的材料已經採購。這是[一年多]。

So it's the inflationary pressure that we might see next year. So this is why the negotiations with the customers are about next year and the year beyond.

所以這是我們明年可能會看到的通脹壓力。所以這就是為什麼與客戶的談判是在明年和以後的一年。

So this is where I think it has to come to a fairness where we are looking at the unavoidable pressures above what I would call as a normal inflation percentage of 2%, 3% that we always take into consideration.

因此，這就是我認為必須公平對待的地方，我們正在研究不可避免的壓力，高於我所說的正常通脹百分比 2%，我們總是考慮到 3%。

Anything above that, we just have to get compensated with our customers. And we're right in the middle of the negotiations on this issue. So you have to really split between short-term effects, short-term fixes, longer-term effects, longer-term fixes.

除此之外，我們只需要從我們的客戶那裡得到補償。我們正在就這個問題進行談判。所以你必須真正區分短期影響、短期修復、長期影響、長期修復。

Got it. Understood. And just as a follow-up to Roger. When we look at these fast shipments, do your customers give you milestone payments on top of repayments?

知道了。明白了。就像羅傑的後續行動一樣。當我們看到這些快速發貨時，您的客戶是否在還款的基礎上向您提供里程碑付款？

Or will they just pay you just when they sign off on the tool after you've done the testing at the customer side? I just want to better understand the cash flows on these tools.

還是他們會在您在客戶端完成測試後在工具上簽字時才向您付款？我只是想更好地了解這些工具的現金流。

Yes, Adi. There is, in essence, no cash flow impact from fast shipments because what happens is -- as you know, in a number of tools, we get down payments and the remainder, in essence, with the lion's share of our shipments is [upon] shipment. So upon shipment we get -- that we get said.

是的，阿迪。從本質上講，快速發貨不會對現金流產生影響，因為發生的情況是——如你所知，在許多工具中，我們得到了預付款，而剩下的，實質上，我們發貨的最大份額是 [根據] 運輸。因此，在裝運時，我們得到 - 我們得到說。

So that is not influenced by the fact that installation is going to happen later on. So no impact, I would say, on the profile of the cash flow.

所以這不受安裝將在以後發生的事實的影響。因此，我想說，對現金流的情況沒有影響。

Got it. And then essentially, there are no milestone payments then on this fast shipment?

知道了。然後從本質上講，這種快速發貨沒有里程碑付款嗎？

No. No, no, there are not.

不，不，不，沒有。

And effectively, the invoice goes out at the same -- whether it's a fast shipment or not a fast shipment, the invoice goes out at the same point, it's upon shipment. So from a cash flow point of view, there is no [difference].

實際上，發票是在同一時間發出的——無論是快運還是非快運，發票都是在同一時間發出的，它是在裝運時。所以從現金流的角度來看，沒有[差異]。

And our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse of Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question, Peter, in the video remarks that you provided, I was intrigued by the fact that you thought your supply chain headwinds could be corrected by the end of '22. So can you please discuss your thoughts around that as well as how you are kind of dealing with some of the gas and energy issues in Germany? Any implications to your key supplier, Carl Zeiss?

我想第一個問題，彼得，在你提供的視頻評論中，我對你認為你的供應鏈逆風可以在 22 年底得到糾正這一事實很感興趣。那麼您能否談談您對此的想法以及您如何處理德國的一些天然氣和能源問題？對您的主要供應商 Carl Zeiss 有何影響？

Yes. I think the supply chain headwind -- I mean it is an assumption, and the assumption is based on the fact when we look at the material escalations that are really delaying the output, we saw a peak, I think, at last month, but it's coming down a bit.

是的。我認為供應鏈逆風——我的意思是這是一個假設，這個假設是基於這樣一個事實，當我們看到真正延遲產出的材料升級時，我認為我們在上個月看到了一個高峰，但是它正在下降一點。

And we're just trying to extrapolate that trend, which, of course, is dangerous because it's just -- you just look at the graph. And then if we follow that trend, then there could be a possibility by the end of the year, early next year, there could be a situation where we are more in control of those supply constraints.

我們只是試圖推斷這種趨勢，這當然是危險的，因為它只是 - 你只需看一下圖表。然後，如果我們遵循這一趨勢，那麼到今年年底，明年初，我們可能會更好地控制這些供應限制。

Having said that, there are still guarantees because if you look at the supply chain, it comes down to the first-tier suppliers.

話雖如此，仍然有保證，因為如果您查看供應鏈，則歸結為一級供應商。

But if you really look through it, they -- often the issue is not in the first-tier supplier but in the second, the third and fourth tier, even further because of the base materials, yes? And that transparency is limited.

但是如果你仔細看的話，他們——通常問題不在一級供應商，而是在第二、第三和第四級，甚至更進一步，因為基礎材料，是嗎？而且這種透明度是有限的。

We're pretty transparent, I think, in the first and the second tier. But beyond that, it becomes more difficult.

我認為，我們在第一層和第二層非常透明。但除此之外，它變得更加困難。

So we're just following the trend. And it's a [question] of trends extrapolation that we're doing that might give us, end of the year, beginning of next year, some more relief. But like I said, it's based on limited transparency that we currently have.

所以我們只是順勢而為。這是一個關於趨勢推斷的[問題]，我們正在做的這可能會給我們帶來更多的安慰，今年年底，明年年初。但就像我說的，這是基於我們目前擁有的有限透明度。

Now on the energy situation in Germany and especially on Carl Zeiss. I mean, of course, we are taking measures and have taken measures. I think the dependence of Carl Zeiss on gas is going to be limited. I mean they're switching to oil. They are not a big gas user either.

現在談談德國的能源狀況，尤其是卡爾蔡司。我的意思是，當然，我們正在採取措施並且已經採取措施。我認為卡爾蔡司對天然氣的依賴將是有限的。我的意思是他們正在轉向石油。他們也不是天然氣的大用戶。

But what is true in -- for the transparency, what I mentioned on our own supply chain is also probably true for the energy supply chain. How transparent is our insight into potential energy risk or gas risk in Germany? We don't know. I mean it could be far down in the third- or fourth- or fifth-layer suppliers.

但是，對於透明度而言，我在我們自己的供應鏈中提到的內容對於能源供應鏈也可能是正確的。我們對德國潛在能源風險或天然氣風險的洞察有多透明？我們不知道。我的意思是它可能在第三層或第四層或第五層供應商中遠遠落後。

Having said that, I think government and also companies are on top of this issue. And there will be gas, whether gas comes from different sources, it is a matter of price, which is going to be an inflation issue.

話雖如此，我認為政府和公司都在這個問題之上。還有天然氣，天然氣是否來自不同的來源，這是一個價格問題，這將是一個通貨膨脹問題。

But I think every supplier that we know of and that we have some insight into how it's working on securing their energy resource. And also, here some of our suppliers are actually claiming a very strategic status in getting preference.

但我認為我們所知道的每個供應商，我們都對它如何保護他們的能源資源有一定的了解。而且，在這裡，我們的一些供應商實際上聲稱在獲得偏好方面具有非常戰略性的地位。

So overall, work in process. I think we don't have the full transparency yet to give you a definite answer. But I think I'm more confident than I was a couple of months ago that our suppliers are doing the right thing.

總的來說，工作正在進行中。我認為我們還沒有完全的透明度給你一個明確的答案。但我認為我比幾個月前更有信心，我們的供應商正在做正確的事情。

That's helpful. As my follow-up, interesting that Memory orders actually accelerated 40-plus percent sequentially, I think, to a new record high for ASML, and that's amidst obviously weakness that we've heard in terms of CapEx trends from Hynix and Micron.

這很有幫助。作為我的後續行動，有趣的是，我認為，內存訂單實際上連續增長了 40% 以上，達到了 ASML 的新高，而這顯然是在我們從海力士和美光公司聽到的資本支出趨勢方面明顯疲軟的情況下。

So I guess as you look at the Memory complex, obviously, you're benefiting from EUV technology buys, but would love to hear your overall thoughts there, both for technology focused on strengths and perhaps what kind of weakness you have in your build plans around new capacity adds.

因此，我想當您查看內存綜合體時，很明顯，您從 EUV 技術購買中受益，但很想听聽您在那裡的總體想法，無論是對於專注於優勢的技術，還是您在構建計劃中有什麼樣的弱點圍繞新增產能增加。

Yes. The weakness in our own build capacity, if I understand you correctly, C.J., are you asking this also what we see in our own build capacity? Because we don't see any weakness in our...

是的。如果我理解正確，C.J.，我們自己的構建能力的弱點，您是否也在問我們在自己的構建能力中看到了什麼？因為我們看不到自己的弱點...

No. No, no. This is just -- how you're thinking about Memory trend in your record, yes.

不不不。這只是——你是如何看待你記錄中的記憶趨勢的，是的。

So basically weakness that our customers are talking about and to build capacity. It also goes back to what I said earlier. I mean, yes, EUV plays a significant role. The EUV transition in Memory, especially, is happening, and it's essential.

所以基本上是我們的客戶正在談論的弱點並建立能力。這也可以追溯到我之前所說的。我的意思是，是的，EUV 起著重要作用。尤其是內存中的 EUV 過渡正在發生，而且是必不可少的。

When we talk about 8 new EUV fabs, some of them are Memory fabs, which is an essential part of the [ROP] transition. And EUV is critical, in that sense.

當我們談論 8 家新的 EUV 晶圓廠時，其中一些是內存晶圓廠，這是 [ROP] 過渡的重要組成部分。從這個意義上說，EUV 至關重要。

Well, building these big EUR 15 billion-plus fabs, you need to fill those fabs with the latest and greatest technology, which is EUV -- is EUV-driven. But of course, you cannot make this device without immersion and without dry DPV. So -- and this is what our customers also told us.

嗯，建造這些超過 150 億歐元的大型晶圓廠，你需要用最新和最偉大的技術來填充這些晶圓廠，即 EUV —— 由 EUV 驅動。但是，當然，您不能在沒有浸沒和沒有乾燥 DPV 的情況下製造此設備。所以——這也是我們的客戶也告訴我們的。

Yes, they are acknowledging the weakness. Yes, they are concerned about the inventories that are going up, but they're not backing off, which they didn't do in the past either. They're not backing off of their innovation roadmaps, which are essential for their future competitiveness, yes?

是的，他們承認弱點。是的，他們擔心庫存正在上升，但他們並沒有退縮，他們過去也沒有這樣做。他們不會放棄對他們未來競爭力至關重要的創新路線圖，是嗎？

So this is why they say, they pick up the phone and if they tell us, "Listen, we talk about weakness, but don't you guys dare to just change your shipment pattern to us?" So this is what I'm holding on to. That is why we have this big order back -- this order backlog, and we know where to ship to.

所以這就是為什麼他們說，他們拿起電話，如果他們告訴我們，“聽著，我們談論的是弱點，但是你們就不敢改變你們的發貨方式給我們嗎？”所以這就是我堅持的。這就是為什麼我們有這個大訂單——這個訂單積壓，我們知道運往哪裡。

So yes, of course, there is a longer-term correlation between structural longer-term weakness and our -- or the ability of ASML to ship to those customers. But shorter term and longer term are currently two different things, yes?

所以，是的，當然，結構性長期弱點與我們的長期相關性 - 或 ASML 向這些客戶發貨的能力。但是短期和長期目前是兩個不同的東西，是嗎？

All right. Thank you. If you are unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Before we sign off, I'd like to remind you that our Investor Day is currently planned to be held in Veldhoven on November 11 of this year. We hope you'll be able to join us.

好的。謝謝你。如果您無法接通本次電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯繫 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。在我們簽字之前，我想提醒您，我們的投資者日目前計劃於今年 11 月 11 日在 Veldhoven 舉行。我們希望您能加入我們。

Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

現在我代表 ASML，感謝大家今天加入我們。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝你。

Thank you. This now concludes the ASML Q2 2022 financial results. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。現在結束了 ASML 2022 年第二季度的財務業績。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。