艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2023 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on July 19, 2023. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2023 年 7 月 19 日 ASML 2023 年第二季財務業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在我想將電話會議交給 Skip Miller 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2023 second quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. The call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

謝謝您，接線生。歡迎大家。我是 ASML 投資者關係副總裁 Skip Miller。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink；以及我們的財務長 Roger Dassen。今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2023 年第二季業績。此次通話時間為 60 分鐘，問題將依照收到的順序進行解答。此次電話會議也將透過網路 (asml.com) 進行現場直播。管理層開場白的記錄和電話會議的重播將在本次電話會議結束後不久在我們的網站上提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。有關風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明，這些聲明可在我們的網站 asml.com 上找到，也可以在 ASML 的 20-F 表格年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

接下來，我想將電話轉給 Peter Wennink 進行簡短介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2023 results conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the second quarter 2023 as well as provide our view on the coming quarters. And Roger will start with a review of our second quarter 2023 financial performance with added comments on our short-term outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook.

謝謝你，斯基普。歡迎大家，感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第二季業績電話會議。在我們開始問答環節之前，羅傑和我想對 2023 年第二季進行概述和評論，並對未來幾季發表我們的看法。羅傑將首先回顧我們 2023 年第二季的財務業績，並對我們的短期前景發表評論。最後，我將對當前的商業環境和我們未來的商業前景發表一些補充評論，以完成介紹。

Roger?

羅傑？

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the second quarter financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the third quarter of 2023. Let me start with our second quarter accomplishments. Net sales came in at EUR 6.9 billion, which is at the high end of our guidance. We shipped 13 EUV systems and recognized EUR 2 billion revenue from 12 systems this quarter. Net system sales of EUR 5.6 billion, which was mainly driven by Logic at 84%, with the remaining 16% coming from Memory. The net sales value of our fast shipments not yet recognized in revenue in the first half of 2023 amounts to EUR 1.4 billion. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 1.3 billion as guided.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。我將首先回顧第二季度的財務業績，然後對 2023 年第三季提供指導。讓我先從我們第二季的業績開始。淨銷售額達到 69 億歐元，處於我們預期的高點。本季我們出貨了 13 套 EUV 系統，並從 12 套系統實現了 20 億歐元的收入。淨系統銷售額為 56 億歐元，其中主要由邏輯驅動，佔 84%，其餘 16% 來自記憶體。 2023 年上半年尚未確認為營收的快速出貨淨銷售額為 14 億歐元。本季安裝基礎管理銷售額達到預期的 13 億歐元。

Gross margin for the quarter came in at 51.3%, which is above our guidance, primarily driven by additional deep UV immersion revenue in the quarter, partly related to starting revenue recognition upon shipment for immersion systems that are fast shipped. On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at EUR 1 billion, and SG&A expenses came in at EUR 281 million, both basically as guided. Net income in Q2 was EUR 1.9 billion, representing 28.1% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR 4.93.

本季毛利率為 51.3%，高於我們的預期，主要由於本季深紫外浸沒式系統收入增加，部分原因在於快速出貨的浸沒式系統在出貨時開始確認收入。在營運費用方面，研發費用為 10 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用為 2.81 億歐元，兩者基本上符合預期。第二季淨收入為 19 億歐元，佔淨銷售額的 28.1%，每股收益為 4.93 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 6.3 billion.

轉向資產負債表。截至第二季末，我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資總額為 63 億歐元。

Moving to the order book. Q2 net system bookings came in at EUR 4.5 billion, which is made up of EUR 1.6 billion for EUV bookings and EUR 2.9 billion for non-EUV bookings. These values also include inflation corrections. Net system bookings in the quarter were driven by Logic with 69% of the bookings, while Memory accounted for the remaining 31%. At the end of Q2, we have around EUR 38 billion in our backlog.

移至訂單簿。第二季淨系統預訂金額為 45 億歐元，其中 EUV 預訂額為 16 億歐元，非 EUV 預訂額為 29 億歐元。這些價值也包括通貨膨脹修正。本季淨系統預訂量由邏輯驅動，佔預訂量的 69%，而記憶體則佔剩餘的 31%。截至第二季末，我們的積壓訂單約為 380 億歐元。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the third quarter of 2023. We expect Q3 net sales to be between EUR 6.5 billion and EUR 7 billion. We expect our Q3 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 1.4 billion. Gross margin for Q3 is expected to be around 50%, a little below last quarter due to deep UV mix. The expected R&D expenses for Q3 are around EUR 1 billion and SG&A is expected to be around EUR 285 million.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2023 年第三季的預期。我們預計第三季淨銷售額將在 65 億歐元至 70 億歐元之間。我們預計第三季安裝基礎管理銷售額約為 14 億歐元。預計第三季的毛利率約為 50%，由於深紫外線組合，略低於上一季。第三季預計研發費用約 10 億歐元，銷售、一般及行政費用預計約 2.85 億歐元。

Our estimated 2023 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 15% and 16%. An interim dividend of EUR 1.45 per ordinary share will be made payable on August 10, 2023. In Q2 2023, we purchased around 0.8 million shares for a total amount of around EUR 500 million. As mentioned last quarter, in the current environment, we expect to see ongoing pressure on our free cash flow. As a result, we will be prudent in managing our cash flows and maintaining relatively higher levels of cash.

我們預計 2023 年年化有效稅率將在 15% 至 16% 之間。每股普通股 1.45 歐元的中期股息將於 2023 年 8 月 10 日支付。 2023 年第二季度，我們購買了約 80 萬股，總金額約 5 億歐元。正如上個季度所提到的，在當前環境下，我們預期自由現金流將持續面臨壓力。因此，我們將謹慎管理現金流並保持相對較高的現金水準。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, another solid quarter in a dynamic environment. Significant uncertainty remains in the market due to a number of global macro concerns around inflation, rising interest rates, recession and the geopolitical environment, including export controls. Although certain end markets seem to be reaching the bottom of the cycle, the semiconductor industry is running at very high inventory levels, leading customers to moderate wafer output as the supply chain works to reduce and rebalance inventory levels.

謝謝你，羅傑。正如羅傑所強調的，在充滿活力的環境中，我們迎來了一個穩健的季度。由於通貨膨脹、利率上升、經濟衰退和地緣政治環境（包括出口管制）等一系列全球宏觀問題，市場仍存在很大的不確定性。儘管某些終端市場似乎正在觸及週期底部，但半導體產業的庫存水準非常高，導致客戶在供應鏈努力減少和重新平衡庫存水準的同時，減少晶圓產量。

In order to limit wafer output, customers continue to run at lower litho tool utilization levels. Customers remain cautious due to the uncertainty around the timing, the shape and the slope of the recovery.

為了限制晶圓產量，客戶繼續以較低的光刻工具利用率運作。由於復甦的時間、形態和速度存在不確定性，客戶仍保持謹慎。

We had an increase in bookings this quarter, resulting in a backlog of around EUR 38 billion exiting the second quarter. In our EUV business, we have seen some shifts in demand timing. The majority of the shifts are due to fab readiness, with some elements of uncertainty around recovery. Deep UV demand still exceeds supply. While we have seen delays in deep UV demand from some customers, it has been compensated by strong demand for tools that mature and mid-critical nodes, particularly in China. The demand fill rate for our Chinese customers over the last 2 years was significantly less than 50%, so they now take the opportunity to receive and install systems in their fabs as the supply of tools becomes available.

本季我們的訂單量增加，導致第二季的積壓訂單量約為 380 億歐元。在我們的 EUV 業務中，我們看到了需求時間的一些變化。大部分轉變是由於晶圓廠的準備情況，以及復甦方面的一些不確定因素。深紫外線的需求仍超過供應。雖然我們看到一些客戶對深紫外線的需求有所延遲，但對成熟和中臨界節點工具的強勁需求彌補了這一差距，尤其是在中國。過去兩年，我們中國客戶的需求滿足率明顯低於 50%，因此，現在，隨著工具供應的到位，他們抓住機會在其晶圓廠接收和安裝系統。

Turning to our business, starting with deep UV. We're now planning to ship more than 375 deep UV systems with a mix of over 25% immersion. For immersion systems using the fast shipment process, we have come to an agreement with customers on a reduced acceptance test procedure that allows revenue recognition on shipment. As a result, we now expect additional revenue of around EUR 700 million in 2023. And this, in turn, reduces the amount of delayed revenue out of the year, and we now expect around EUR 2.3 billion of delayed revenue from 2023 into 2024 versus around EUR 3 billion of delayed revenue as previously communicated. This incremental deep UV revenue increased the expected year-over-year growth of our non-EUV business from around 30% as communicated last quarter to around 50%.

談到我們的業務，從深紫外線開始。我們現在計劃交付超過 375 套深紫外線系統，其中浸沒率超過 25%。對於採用快速出貨流程的浸入式系統，我們已與客戶達成協議，減少驗收測試程序，以便在出貨時確認收入。因此，我們現在預計 2023 年將額外增加約 7 億歐元的收入。這反過來又減少了當年的延遲收入金額，我們現在預計 2023 年至 2024 年的延遲收入約為 23 億歐元，而先前傳達的延遲收入約為 30 億歐元。這一增量深紫外線收入使我們的非 EUV 業務的預期同比增長率從上個季度公佈的 30% 左右上升至 50% 左右。

In EUV, due primarily to customer adjustments in timing -- in the demand timing related to delays in fab readiness as well as some remaining supply chain issues, we now expect to ship around 52 systems this year, translating to a year-over-year revenue growth for EUV of around 25% versus the previously communicated expectation of around 40%.

在 EUV 方面，主要由於客戶對時間的調整——與晶圓廠準備就緒延遲以及一些剩餘的供應鏈問題相關的需求時間調整，我們現在預計今年將出貨約 52 套系統，這意味著 EUV 的收入同比增長約 25%，而之前預期約為 40%。

For the Installed Base business, with the current utilization rates, market uncertainty as well as timing of recovery, customers are delaying productivity and performance upgrades on their litho systems. Therefore, we now expect our Installed Base business this year to be similar to last year versus a growth of around 5% as previously communicated.

對於已安裝基礎業務，由於當前的利用率、市場不確定性以及復甦時機，客戶正在推遲其光刻系統的生產力和性能升級。因此，我們現在預計今年的安裝基礎業務將與去年相似，而不是像之前所說的那樣成長 5% 左右。

In summary, based on our view today, with higher deep UV revenue, offset somewhat by lower expectations on our EUV and Installed Base business relative to last quarter, we now expect net sales growth for the year to move towards 30% versus the previously articulated expectation of over 25%. We still expect a slight improvement in gross margin compared to 2022. No change relative to what we said last quarter, as the positive margin impact from increased deep UV immersion revenue is expected to be offset by the dilutive impact of lower upgrade revenue in 2023.

綜上所述，根據我們今天的觀點，由於深紫外線收入增加，但與上一季相比，我們對 EUV 和已安裝基礎業務的預期有所降低，因此我們現在預計全年淨銷售額增長率將達到 30%，而之前預期為 25% 以上。我們仍然預計毛利率將與 2022 年相比略有提高。與我們上個季度所說的相比沒有變化，因為深紫外線浸沒式收入增加帶來的積極利潤率影響預計將被 2023 年升級收入降低的稀釋影響所抵消。

On the geopolitical front, as it relates to export control, the final Dutch regulations that were published at the end of last month are basically aligned to our expectations communicated last quarter and published on our website. Due to these export control regulations, ASML will need to apply for export licenses with the Dutch government for all shipments of its most advanced immersion deep UV lithography systems, which means the TWINSCAN NXT:2000i and subsequent immersion systems.

在地緣政治方面，由於涉及出口管制，上個月底發布的最終荷蘭法規基本上與我們上個季度傳達並在我們網站上發布的預期一致。由於這些出口管制規定，ASML 需要向荷蘭政府申請其最先進的浸沒式深紫外光刻系統（即 TWINSCAN NXT:2000i 及後續浸沒式系統）的出口許可證。

As a reminder, sales of ASML's EUV tools have already been restricted, and the business in China is predominately focused on mature and mid-critical nodes. The new Dutch export regulations will come into effect on September 1, 2023. There were also some reports in the media recently about additional U.S. export controls. Of course, we will and cannot respond to speculation. However, based on our current understanding, we do not expect to change our previously communicated view. Therefore, based on everything we have been made aware of as of today, we do not expect the Dutch and potential additional U.S. measures to have a material impact on our financial outlook for 2023 nor on our longer-term scenarios as communicated during our Investor Day in November last year.

需要提醒的是，ASML 的 EUV 工具的銷售已經受到限制，中國的業務主要集中在成熟和中等關鍵節點。荷蘭新的出口法規將於2023年9月1日生效。近期媒體也通報了美國將加強出口管制的通報。當然，我們不會也不能回應猜測。然而，根據我們目前的理解，我們不希望改變我們先前傳達的觀點。因此，根據我們今天所了解的所有信息，我們預計荷蘭和美國可能採取的額外措施不會對我們 2023 年的財務前景或我們去年 11 月投資者日期間傳達的長期前景產生重大影響。

Looking towards next year, our customers across different market segments are currently more cautious due to the continued macroeconomic uncertainties. Based on our view last quarter, customers were expecting a recovery in the second half of this year, but it now seems that this is moving towards -- more towards 2024. Also, the shape and slope of the recovery remains unclear. However, based on a combination of the current firm demand and a strong backlog of around EUR 38 billion, there are clearly still opportunities for growth in 2024. But given the mentioned uncertainties, it's too early to be specific about the forecast for next year. We will continue to follow the market developments and update you on our view of next year in the coming quarters.

展望明年，由於宏觀經濟的不確定性持續存在，我們不同細分市場的客戶目前都更加謹慎。根據我們上個季度的觀點，客戶預計今年下半年會出現復甦，但現在看來，復甦要到 2024 年。此外，復甦的形態和斜率仍不清楚。然而，基於目前堅定的需求和約 380 億歐元的強勁積壓訂單，2024 年顯然仍有成長機會。但鑑於上述不確定性，現在具體預測明年還為時過早。我們將繼續關注市場發展，並在未來幾季向您更新我們對明年的看法。

Despite the near-term uncertainty, the longer-term megatrends we talked about at our Investor Day are broadening the application space and fueling demand for advanced and mature nodes. Secular growth drivers in semiconductor end markets such as electrification and AI, along with increasing lithography intensity on future technology nodes, are driving demand for our products and services.

儘管短期內存在不確定性，但我們在投資者日討論的長期大趨勢正在拓寬應用空間並推動對先進和成熟節點的需求。電氣化和人工智慧等半導體終端市場的長期成長動力，以及未來技術節點上光刻強度的不斷提高，正在推動對我們產品和服務的需求。

In summary, while the current macro environment continues to create significant uncertainty, we are working through a strong backlog and expect growth this year towards 30%. In the near- to medium-term, customers remain cautious as they moderate wafer output to help lower inventory levels in the supply chain and to look to build confidence around the timing and the slope of the recovery. ASML and its supply chain partners are still actively adding and improving capacity to meet future customer demand as we remain confident in our long-term growth opportunity.

總而言之，儘管當前的宏觀環境繼續帶來巨大的不確定性，但我們正在努力處理大量積壓訂單，預計今年的成長率將達到 30%。在短期至中期內，客戶仍將保持謹慎，因為他們會調整晶圓產量，以幫助降低供應鏈中的庫存水平，並尋求對復甦的時間和速度建立信心。 ASML 及其供應鏈合作夥伴仍在積極增加和提高產能，以滿足未來的客戶需求，因為我們對長期成長的機會充滿信心。

And with that, we would be happy to take your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. Beforehand, I'd like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-up, if necessary. This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible. Now operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please?

謝謝你，羅傑和彼得。操作員將立即指導您在問答環節的協議。首先，請您將問題限制在一個範圍內，如有必要，請進行一個簡短的跟進。這將使我們能夠聯繫到盡可能多的呼叫者。接線員，請問您最後的指示和第一個問題好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.

（操作員指示）第一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

I had two of them. Peter, I understand you don't want to give an outlook for next year, and I'm not looking for a revenue guidance, but if I look at from a unit standpoint or a system shipment standpoint, do you think deep UV and EUV units would grow in calendar '24 (inaudible) calendar '23?

我有兩個。彼得，我知道您不想給出明年的展望，我也不是在尋找收入指導，但如果我從單位角度或系統出貨量的角度來看，您認為深紫外線和 EUV 單位會在 24 年（聽不清楚）23 年增長嗎？

Well, if I would know this, then I would probably give you some outlook on 2024. But I just refer back to what we call the firm demand from our customers, which -- and the strong backlog. And of course, as you understand, our full 2024 year is not fully covered by POs. So still POs need to come in, but we do have firm demand. Now that is a demand that for 2024, you cannot decouple from the outlook on 2025. And 2025 clearly shows the opening and the first ramp of some significant advanced fabs in the logic space, for instance, the 2-nanometer fabs, 3-nanometer for both the -- all 3 leading customers. That, of course, leads to the firm demand in what we currently see. And that means we see significant opportunities also, like we said, certainly, for growth in 2024. However, we also need to realize that the uncertainties as it relates to macroeconomic developments and particularly, I think, the slope of the recovery.

好吧，如果我知道這一點，那麼我可能會給你一些 2024 年的展望。但我只是回顧一下我們所說的來自客戶的堅定需求，以及強勁的積壓訂單。當然，如您所知，我們的整個 2024 年並沒有完全被採購訂單覆蓋。因此仍然需要採購訂單，但我們確實有堅定的需求。這是 2024 年的需求，不能與 2025 年的前景脫鉤。 2025 年清楚地顯示了邏輯領域一些重要先進晶圓廠的開業和首次產能提升，例如 2 奈米晶圓廠、3 奈米晶圓廠，適用於所有 3 個主要客戶。當然，這就導致了我們目前看到的強勁需求。這意味著我們也看到了巨大的機遇，正如我們所說的，2024 年肯定會成長。然而，我們也需要認識到與宏觀經濟發展相關的不確定性，特別是我認為的復甦速度。

I think we will very likely as many analysts believe but also customers say, we will probably see, let's say, the [thrust] of this down cycle somewhere this year, and then we see a recovery coming. Then it's all about the slope of the recovery. And that's driven really by the macroeconomic uncertainty. So the extent to which they're going to add more capacity in 2024 due to, let's say, the macroeconomic situation, that's the uncertainty.

我認為，正如許多分析師和客戶所說，我們很可能會在今年某個時候看到這一行週期的推力，然後我們就會看到復甦。接下來就是有關復甦的斜率了。這其實是由宏觀經濟的不確定性所致。因此，由於宏觀經濟情勢的影響，他們在 2024 年增加產能的程度存在不確定性。

I think in 2024, there's a higher level of uncertainty of those fabs that will take those machines because they need to ramp in 2025, the next nodes. That's pretty certain. But it's that uncertainty on the macroeconomic demand that makes us a bit more uncomfortable to give you some specific guidance on next year. So in summary, the order book looks good. The firm demand looks good, but I'd love to see all of that being translated into orders over the next couple of quarters. So this is why we also said we're going to follow this very closely, and we're going to keep you abreast of what we're seeing and what our customers are telling us in the next 1 or 2 quarters to come. And I know I didn't give you a specific answer, but I hope it was specific enough.

我認為，到 2024 年，那些採用這些機器的晶圓廠的不確定性會更高，因為它們需要在 2025 年提高下一個節點的生產能力。這是相當肯定的。但正是宏觀經濟需求的不確定性使得我們不太願意為明年提供具體的指引。總而言之，訂單情況看起來不錯。堅定的需求看起來不錯，但我希望看到所有這些都能在接下來的幾季內轉化為訂單。所以這就是為什麼我們也說我們將密切關注這一點，我們將隨時向您通報我們所看到的情況以及我們的客戶在未來一兩個季度內告訴我們的情況。我知道我沒有給你一個具體的答案，但我希望它足夠具體。

No, no, it was. Thanks, Peter. I really appreciate the context and the input. And then a quick follow-up for Roger. Can you give us the composition of the backlog in terms of EUV, deep UV, Memory, Logic, China? And also, what do you expect China as a percentage of sales to be for this year?

不，不，是的。謝謝，彼得。我真的很欣賞這個背景和意見。然後快速跟進一下羅傑的情況。您能否告訴我們 EUV、深 UV、記憶體、邏輯、中國方面的積壓情況的構成情況？另外，您預計今年中國市場的銷售額佔比是多少？

Yes. So the backlog in terms of composition, we have around 85% of the backlog is for EUV and immersion combined. So that gives you, I think, a pretty good indication there. EUV in total is around EUR 21 billion out of the total backlog of EUR 38 billion. So then you have, I think, the key parameters in there. We do not distinguish in terms of regions. I think we told you before that China is over 20% in the backlog, and that also drives our expectation for how you're going to see system sales develop in the next period. But I think that's the key composition of the backlog as we see it today.

是的。因此，就積壓訂單的組成而言，我們有大約 85％ 的積壓訂單是 EUV 和浸入式相結合的。所以我認為這給了你一個很好的暗示。在總積壓訂單 380 億歐元中，EUV 總價值約為 210 億歐元。所以我認為你已經掌握了其中的關鍵參數。我們不以地區來區分。我想我們之前告訴過你，中國有超過 20% 的積壓訂單，這也推動了我們對下一時期系統銷售發展的預期。但我認為，這就是我們今天看到的積壓問題的關鍵組成部分。

And your next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

您的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Peter, I understand you don't have a clear picture on '24 outlook. But how are you adjusting your own capacity? Can you give us an update how we should think about DUV and EUV capacity into '24? And I have a follow-up.

彼得，我知道你對 24 年的前景不太清楚。但你如何調整自己的能力？您能否向我們介紹我們應該如何看待 24 年的 DUV 和 EUV 產能？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. That's a good question. I think this is also what we are, of course, internally discussing. But what we -- the capacity in 2024 is really a function of what we need in 2025. And the good thing about 2025 is when we look at the number of fab openings and the ramp profile of new fabs in '25 across our customer base, which also includes Memory, leads us to believe that we should be very careful in reducing our capacity in 2024. Because if you do that, you won't be able to ship in 2025, given the fact that our lead times in the supply chain are ranging from 12 to 15 to 18 months. So this means we will -- at this moment in time, we don't see any reason to reduce any capacity plans for 2024. Because -- and that's basically driven by our views on the 2025 time frame. So I don't expect any adjustments there, and we're not planning for it.

是的。這是個好問題。我認為這也是我們內部正在討論的事情。但是，2024 年的產能實際上取決於我們 2025 年的需求。 2025 年的好處是，當我們查看 2025 年新開設的晶圓廠數量以及我們客戶群（其中也包括 Memory）中新晶圓廠的產能提升情況時，我們相信我們應該非常謹慎地減少 2024 年的產能。因為如果你這樣做，你將無法在 2025 年發貨，因為我們在供應鏈中的交貨時間為 12 到 15 到 18 個月。所以這意味著我們——目前，我們認為沒有理由減少 2024 年的任何產能計畫。因為——這基本上是由我們對 2025 年時間框架的看法所驅動的。所以我不認為會有任何調整，我們也沒有為此做計劃。

But perhaps the question has to do with the slope of the capacity ramp like on DUV going from 375 to 600, that requires significant ramp. And I'm just wondering if the ramp would look more like a step function in the latter part of '24 as you prepare for '25?

但也許問題與容量斜坡的斜率有關，例如 DUV 從 375 到 600，這需要一個顯著的斜坡。我只是想知道，當您為 25 年做準備時，24 年後期的坡道是否看起來更像階梯函數？

Well, I mean, it's -- you talk -- it's the difference between the ramp and the capacity. I mean, the capacity is 600 units, but that's about 25% immersion. That's you could call expensive capacity. And the 75% is dry, which is less expensive capacity. We're just going to do that because we are currently -- this year plan to ship more than 375 systems. And I also feel that when we look at the firm demand, of course, for deep UV, we don't have all those orders, but the firm demand, then we actually need more capacity next year. So it's going to be -- capacity are step functions. It is not like a gradual function.

嗯，我的意思是，這是——你說的——這是坡道和容量之間的差異。我的意思是，容量是 600 個單位，但浸入率約為 25%。這就是所謂的昂貴容量。其中 75% 是乾的，容量成本較低。我們這樣做是因為我們目前——今年計劃出貨超過 375 套系統。而且我還認為，當我們看堅定的需求時，當然，對於深紫外線，我們沒有那麼多訂單，但是堅定的需求，那麼我們明年實際上需要更多的產能。所以它將是－－容量是階躍函數。它不像是一個漸進函數。

So it means if we want to have 600 units by 2025, 2026, but somewhere by the end of 2024, in 2025, we need to have that step capacity built in the supply chain, whether we're going to put all the orders in, that's dependent on the demand. But I think what we're putting in for 2025, 2026 is therefore the remainder of the decade. So we need to do this anyway because we are strongly convinced, as I said in the prepared remarks, that the long-term view that we have on this market is still very much intact. So you have to distinguish between a ramp as a result, as you know, as a result of the market demand and the capacity ramp because the capacity ramp is a step function and its -- and serves the purpose for the longer term.

因此，這意味著如果我們想在 2025 年或 2026 年擁有 600 台，但到 2024 年底或 2025 年的某個時候，我們需要在供應鏈中建立這一階梯式產能，我們是否要下達所有訂單，這取決於需求。但我認為，我們為 2025 年、2026 年所做的投入就是這十年的剩餘時間。因此，無論如何我們都需要這樣做，因為正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們堅信，我們對這個市場的長期看法仍然非常完整。因此，你必須區分由於市場需求而導致的產量上升和產能上升，因為產能上升是一個階躍函數，並且可以服務於長期目的。

Got it. And my follow-up has to do with technology migration, especially on EUV NXE:3800E supposed to be a platform upgrade, which carries a higher ASP. And is my understanding that, that platform could be used for both 3- and 2-nanometer. Where are we with booking for those systems? And would that ASP uplift would provide you something as a cushion against challenging macro environment?

知道了。我的後續工作與技術遷移有關，尤其是 EUV NXE:3800E，這應該是一個平台升級，具有更高的 ASP。我的理解是，該平台可用於 3 奈米和 2 奈米。我們在哪裡預訂這些系統？平均售價的提升是否會為您帶來一些緩衝，以應對嚴峻的宏觀環境？

Yes. In terms of bookings, of course, the bookings for the 3800 are coming in because if you look at next year, next year is going to show you a good blend of 3600 and 3800 tools. So obviously, quite some of the bookings for EUV, Mehdi, that are currently coming in are also for the 3800.

是的。就預訂而言，3800 的預訂量當然正在增加，因為如果你展望明年，明年你會看到 3600 和 3800 工具的良好融合。因此，很明顯，目前收到的 EUV 訂單中，相當一部分也是針對 3800 的。

The 3800, we promise you that on this call, we would disclose we hit the ASP and the ASP is at least north of EUR 200 million. So that is a clear indication, I think, of how that indeed will also help in terms of revenue. It will also help in terms of gross margin ultimately because even though it's a more expensive machine to make because bear in mind, there are commonality, there is quite some [commonality in parts] between the High-NA tool and the 3800 tool. It's a more expensive tool to make, but it's also a very healthy uptick in terms of ASP. So it will help both on the revenue side and also on the gross margin side, starting in '24, but definitely in '25 when the lion's share of the tools there will be 3800s.

3800，我們向您保證，在這次電話會議上，我們將揭露我們達到的 ASP，並且 ASP 至少在 2 億歐元以上。所以我認為這清楚地表明這確實也會對收入有所幫助。最終，它也將對毛利率產生幫助，因為儘管製造這台機器的成本更高，但請記住，它們具有共性，High-NA 工具和 3800 工具之間存在相當多的[零件共性]。這是一種製造成本更高的工具，但就平均售價而言，它也是一個非常健康的上漲趨勢。因此，從 24 年開始，它將有助於提高收入和毛利率，但肯定在 25 年，屆時大部分工具將是 3800 型。

And your next question comes from the line of Stephane Houri from ODDO.

您的下一個問題來自 ODDO 的 Stephane Houri。

Yes. I would like to speak about the gross margin because you have said basically that despite the changes in the growth rate of different products, you still see slight improvement this year, but you also confirmed the 54% to 56% in 2025. So that's quite an improvement. What does it mean about the ramp of 2024? And can you maybe give us some color on the ingredient for the increase in the gross margin until 2025?

是的。我想談談毛利率，因為您基本上說過，儘管不同產品的成長率有所變化，但今年仍會看到略有改善，但您也確認了 2025 年的毛利率將達到 54% 至 56%。所以這是一個相當大的進步。 2024年的坡道意味著什麼？您能否向我們詳細介紹一下 2025 年毛利率成長的因素？

I think you heard our enthusiasm to share numbers on 2024 or lack thereof. So I'm not going to do that. The growth drivers for 2025 in terms of the gross margin, there's a number that I think are significant there. We just talked about one important one, and that's the 3800. Of course, that's an important driver of gross margin improvement, definitely also in 2025. So that's one.

我想您已經聽到了我們分享 2024 年數據或缺乏數據的熱情。所以我不會這麼做。就毛利率而言，我認為 2025 年的成長動力有很多。我們剛才談到一個重要的產品，那就是 3800。當然，這是毛利率提高的重要驅動力，肯定在 2025 年也是如此。所以這是其中之一。

The second one that I think is important in comparison to today. As you know, we are preparing both for capacity expansion on deep UV and Low-NA, but we're also preparing significantly and putting a lot of money into getting everything ready for High-NA, both the manufacturing capacity here, we're building up teams in the field, et cetera, et cetera. That currently is a significant drag on our gross margin as we have it today because all of the costs that we're incurring to prepare for that capacity ramp and for preparing for High-NA everywhere in the entire organization goes straight to the gross margin today.

我認為第二個與今天相比很重要。如您所知，我們正在為深紫外線和低數值孔徑的產能擴張做準備，但我們也在為高數值孔徑做好充分的準備，並投入大量資金，為這裡的製造能力做好準備，我們正在該領域組建團隊，等等。這對我們目前的毛利率造成了很大的拖累，因為我們為準備提升產能和為整個組織中所有地方的高 NA 做準備而產生的所有成本都直接影響到今天的毛利率。

That effect should be gone by 2025 because at that point in time, you would hope that you're actually going to be in a position to utilize at least a significant part of that incremental capacity that you build. And also by that time, you would see meaningful numbers of High-NA. So those are really important drivers of gross margin. And the other one that I probably would give you is that -- is on the service side.

這種影響應該會在 2025 年消失，因為到那時，你會希望自己實際上能夠利用所建造的增量容量的至少很大一部分。到那時，您將看到有意義的高 NA 數字。所以這些都是毛利率的重要驅動因素。我可能要給你的另一個是 - 在服務方面。

As you know, we see a continued improvement of the EUV service margin in particular, but also in deep UV. And on both, we are driving to get the service margin up, both as a result of what we're doing on the revenue side, but also in terms of trying to further control the cost. So those are the main drivers why looking at 2025, we believe the scenarios that we gave you there, the 54% to 56% is a tenable and reasonable aspiration for us to have.

如您所知，我們看到 EUV 服務利潤率持續提高，深 UV 服務利潤率也持續提高。在這兩方面，我們都在努力提高服務利潤率，這不僅是因為我們在收入方面所做的努力，也是因為我們試圖進一步控製成本。因此，這些是展望 2025 年的主要驅動因素，我們相信我們給出的情景，54% 到 56% 是我們能夠實現的合理願望。

Okay. And a quick follow-up, if I may, is about the order book, the Memory now represents 31% of the bookings versus 21% last quarter. Is that the sign of a rebound in Memory? Or is it something special here?

好的。如果可以的話，我想快速跟進訂單情況，Memory 目前佔訂單的 31%，而上一季為 21%。這是記憶力反彈的跡象嗎？或是這裡有什麼特別之處？

No, I think that's just where we are at this moment. I mean part of it, that's the minority, by the way, is of course, some orders from Chinese Memory customers, but it's the minority. The majority is basically technology transitions out of the leading memory makers. They're just preparing for the next node transition, which is a technology transition, which need, of course, the type of machines and the type of technology that Roger just talked about, like, for instance, the EUV systems, the 3800s. And so this is what it is. It is not -- you shouldn't see this as an immediate addition to the memory output capacity, perhaps except the Chinese ones, but that's -- like we all know, that's bit critical to mature stuff. That's not leading-edge.

不，我認為這就是我們目前的狀況。我的意思是其中一部分，那是少數，順便說一下，當然是來自中國內存客戶的一些訂單，但那是少數。大部分基本上都是領先記憶體製造商的技術轉型。他們只是在為下一個節點轉換做準備，這是一個技術轉換，當然需要 Roger 剛才談到的那種機器和技術，例如 EUV 系統、3800s。事實就是這樣。這不是——你不應該將其視為對內存輸出容量的立即增加，也許除了中國的內存輸出容量，但那是——就像我們都知道的那樣，這對於成熟的東西來說至關重要。這並不是前沿技術。

And your next question comes from the line of Sandeep Deshpande from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Very good. Loud and clear.

非常好。聲音響亮、清晰。

Peter, one question for you. I mean you talked about the challenging macro environment at the moment. How do you see -- I mean, you can see how utilization is doing at your customer base. On average, where do you see utilization is at the moment? Because that will be clearly the driver of when the customers start to get more positive in terms of orders back to you in the next few quarters. And secondly, in terms of China, China clearly is a very strong driver of your sales this year. I mean when we look at utilized revenue, when we hear the data points in the supply chain, at least in the logic companies in China, utilization is as bad if not worse than what we are hearing in other parts in the industry. So maybe to try to understand how sustainable these orders from China are into next year given that the end markets even in China seem to be incredibly weak at this point.

彼得，問你一個問題。我的意思是您談到了當前充滿挑戰的宏觀環境。您如何看待——我的意思是，您可以看到客戶群的使用率如何。平均而言，您認為目前的使用率是多少？因為這顯然將成為未來幾季客戶在訂單方面開始變得更加積極的驅動力。其次，就中國而言，中國顯然是今年你們銷售的強勁推手。我的意思是，當我們查看利用收入時，當我們聽到供應鏈中的數據點時，至少在中國的邏輯公司中，利用率與我們在行業其他部分聽到的一樣糟糕，甚至更糟。因此，也許可以試著了解這些來自中國的訂單在明年的可持續性，因為目前即使是中國的終端市場似乎也非常疲軟。

Yes. Good. Basically, the utilization question, good question (inaudible) distinguish between Memory and Logic. I think in Memory, I don't think we see a lot of bottoming out there. Yes, it could be -- you could argue, it's bottoming out, but we don't see a kind of an inflection point. In Logic, though, it's very early, but we could see some of an inflection point today. But that's just over the last -- the short period. So see how sustainable that is. But I would think if you think about that, that's bottoming out and you could even say we've passed an inflection point, although it's still early.

是的。好的。基本上，利用率問題，好問題（聽不清楚）區分記憶和邏輯。我認為在記憶方面，我們不認為會出現太多觸底的情況。是的，有可能——你可以說，它正在觸底，但我們沒有看到某種拐點。然而，從邏輯上來說，現在還為時過早，但我們今天可以看到一些轉折點。但這只是過去的短暫時期。看看這有多可持續。但我想，如果你考慮一下，那就是觸底，你甚至可以說我們已經過了拐點，儘管現在還為時過早。

Now on China, how sustainable is -- that's correct. I mean you see the same utilization trends in China as we see in the rest of the world. But you have to realize that the demand in China has 2 elements. One, of course, it needs to fulfill the current demand, and that's what we just talked about. I mean the current demand is, of course, weak. But the most important point is the strategic investments and the fabs are being built for a purpose. When you look at what's been made in China, it's mid-critical to mature semiconductors. And that's the sweet spot. When it comes -- when you look at the big megatrends around the globe where China is leading as a matter of fact, when you think about electrification of mobility, think about the energy transition, the IoT in the industrial space, the rollout of the telecommunication infrastructure, battery technology, that's all -- that's the sweet spot of mid-critical and mature semiconductor.

現在關於中國，永續性如何——這是正確的。我的意思是，你會發現中國的利用趨勢與我們在世界其他地區看到的相同。但你必須意識到中國的需求有兩個因素。第一當然是要滿足現在的需求，這個我們剛才也講了。我的意思是，當前的需求當然很弱。但最重要的一點是戰略投資和晶圓廠的建設都是有目的的。當你觀察中國製造的產品時，你會發現它對成熟的半導體至關重要。這就是最佳點。事實上，當你看到中國在全球的大趨勢中處於領先地位時，當你想到行動電氣化、能源轉型、工業領域的物聯網、電信基礎設施的推出、電池技術等等時，這就是中等關鍵和成熟半導體的最佳點。

And that's where China without any exception is leading. Now that means that the Chinese industry, the customers of the semiconductor industry need semiconductors of that kind. And I can just tell you in the discussions that we've had, the concern of many of our Chinese customers is that given the increase of the geopolitical tensions, they do not want to rely on supply that comes out of China. So it's very simple that they're going to build a significant amount of capacity in that space, in the mid-critical to mature semiconductors to actually fuel those megatrends where China is actually leading.

而中國毫無例外地處於領先地位。這意味著中國工業，半導體工業的客戶需要這種半導體。我可以告訴你，在我們進行的討論中，許多中國客戶擔心的是，鑑於地緣政治緊張局勢的加劇，他們不想依賴來自中國的供應。因此，很簡單，他們將在中期到成熟的半導體領域建立大量產能，以真正推動中國真正引領的那些大趨勢。

So if you then look at the big [whole] market and their desire because of the fear that they have on the increase in geopolitical tensions, they're going to build all those fabs themselves. And that's what's happening. Those fabs will be built. There are many new fabs and new companies that actually say we're going to provide those type of semiconductors to support these megatrends where China is indeed leading. And that's what's happening today. It's not so much the current macroeconomic or the market situation that drives the demand. It's the strategic investment that drives the demand because it's the dependence that part of the Chinese industry has on imports. And then I think it's very sustainable. That's very sustainable for the next couple of years.

因此，如果你看看整個市場以及他們由於擔心地緣政治緊張局勢加劇而產生的願望，他們就會自己建造所有這些晶圓廠。這就是正在發生的事情。這些晶圓廠將會被建造出來。許多新工廠和新公司實際上都表示，我們將提供此類半導體來支持中國確實引領的這些大趨勢。這就是今天正在發生的事情。推動需求的並不是當前的宏觀經濟或市場情勢。戰略投資推動了需求，因為中國部分產業依賴進口。我認為它非常可持續。這對於未來幾年來說非常可持續。

And your next question comes from the line of Sara Russo from Bernstein.

您的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Sara Russo。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Great. I was just wondering if you could give us an update on High-NA. So indications are that customers are not delaying the tech transition. So are you still on track for first shipments to customers in 2024? And have you seen any increase in orders as you get closer to those first shipments?

偉大的。我只是想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關 High-NA 的最新資訊。種種跡象表明，客戶並沒有推遲技術轉型。那麼，你們是否仍計劃在 2024 年向客戶出貨第一批產品？隨著第一批貨物的臨近，訂單量有增加嗎？

Yes. I think we're still on track for the first shipment in 2024. Yes, we're -- actually, this year, we're starting to ship the first module. So that's on track, and that also means for 2024. Yes, I don't think they're delaying the introduction at all. You're absolutely right. And yes, we are still seeing orders coming in. So both is confirmative with the point made that -- and I think Roger alluded to that, that if there's anything on High-NA, we need to make sure that the supply chain, which, of course, needs to supply us with critical node technology will actually be on time. So our main focus is on the execution in the supply chain, not so much from the demand side. It's really about execution.

是的。我認為我們仍有望在 2024 年發貨。是的，實際上，今年我們就開始出貨第一個模組了。所以一切都按計劃進行，這也意味著將在 2024 年實現。是的，我認為他們根本沒有推遲推出。你完全正確。是的，我們仍然看到訂單湧入。所以兩者都證實了這一點——我認為羅傑提到了這一點，如果在 High-NA 上有任何進展，我們需要確保供應鏈能夠按時交付，當然，供應鏈需要為我們提供關鍵節點技術。因此，我們主要關注的是供應鏈的執行，而不是需求方。這確實與執行有關。

Great. And can we -- maybe could you give us a little bit of color on where you stand on High-NA orders in the backlog? So assuming that you now are sort of seeing a good number come in, can you give us a sense of orders in the backlog and timing of those orders?

偉大的。我們可以嗎 - 也許您可以稍微介紹一下您在積壓的高 NA 訂單方面的狀況嗎？那麼假設您現在看到有不錯的訂單量，您能否告訴我們積壓訂單的情況以及這些訂單的時間表？

Yes. We said before that our customers -- given there is only a very limited number of customers for High-NA, our customers really do not want us to disclose PO bookings on High-NA. I mean that's the situation. That's why we're not sharing those data. But this -- for quite a while now, we're looking at double-digit numbers in the backlog, let me put it that way. And that's quite a while back that we started to cross that level.

是的。我們之前說過，我們的客戶—鑑於 High-NA 的客戶數量非常有限，我們的客戶確實不希望我們揭露 High-NA 的採購訂單預訂情況。我的意思是情況就是這樣。這就是我們不共享這些數據的原因。但這個——相當長一段時間以來，我們看到積壓的數字都是兩位數，讓我這樣說吧。我們已經很久以前就開始跨越那個水準了。

And it's increasing.

並且還在不斷增加中。

And it's increasing. Yes.

並且還在不斷增加中。是的。

And your next question comes from the line of Francois Bouvignies from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Francois Bouvignies。

Can you hear me okay?

你聽見我說話嗎？

Loud and clear.

聲音響亮、清晰。

Perfect. So the first question is, obviously, Peter, you were clear on 2024 uncertainty, at least in terms of units, and you will come back later with a clear picture. And Roger, you started to talk about the ASP for the EUV next year with the E model coming to market, the 3800s. If I understand correctly, an ASP of close to 20% growth versus the older models. Can you help us -- give us some color on the ASP, so something you can have maybe more visibility on to next year for EUV? So you touched upon, but also deep UV with all the moving parts with China, your new models as well of deep UV in the market, the 2100s with a 20% improvement in overlay. You have inflation on top. So just how should we think about the ASP specifically (inaudible), if you like, about your (inaudible) businesses basically?

完美的。因此，第一個問題是，彼得，顯然你對 2024 年的不確定性很清楚，至少在單位方面，你稍後會帶著清晰的圖景回來。羅傑，您開始談論明年 EUV 的平均銷售價格，屆時 E 型號 3800 將會上市。如果我理解正確的話，與舊款相比，平均售價增加了近 20%。您能否幫助我們 - 向我們介紹 ASP，以便您對明年的 EUV 有更多的了解？所以您提到了深紫外線以及中國的所有活動部件，您的新型號以及市場上的深紫外線，2100 年代的覆蓋率提高了 20%。通貨膨脹正在加劇。那麼，如果您願意的話，我們應該如何具體地考慮 ASP（聽不清楚），基本上如何考慮您的（聽不清楚）業務？

Yes. Francois, I think I was quite clear, I think, on the ASP for the 3800. So I said north of EUR 200 million. So I think that was clear. When it comes to ASPs in the deep UV landscape, of course, it's very widely distributed. And there, obviously, the mix effect is quite significant and that is true both within the portfolio of KrF of dry tools and also in wet tools. So you're absolutely right. I mean the new models that we're introducing, of course, give significant value to the customer, and therefore, command a significantly higher price than all the models. So that is clearly the case, but it is completely dependent on the mix within the dry business and the immersion business.

是的。弗朗索瓦，我認為我對 3800 的平均銷售價格已經很清楚了。所以我說的是 2 億歐元以上。所以我認為這很清楚。當然，當談到深紫外線領域的 ASP 時，它的分佈非常廣泛。顯然，混合效應非常顯著，無論是在 KrF 的乾式工具產品組合中還是在濕式工具產品中都是如此。所以你完全正確。我的意思是，我們推出的新車型當然會為客戶帶來巨大的價值，因此價格比所有車型都要高得多。顯然情況確實如此，但它完全取決於乾式業務和浸泡式業務的結合。

And also in the immersion business, you have to also realize that -- what I said in the prepared remarks that we cannot ship our most advanced immersion tools to China, but we can ship our mid-critical immersion tools to China. And that, of course, gives -- even in the immersion scope gives quite a significant spread. So it's very difficult to give you one number for the deep UV numbers. It's basically too heterogeneous.

而且在沉浸式業務中，你還必須意識到——我在準備好的發言中說過，我們無法將最先進的沉浸式工具運往中國，但我們可以將中臨界沉浸式工具運往中國。當然，即使在沉浸式範圍內也會產生相當顯著的擴散。因此，很難給出一個深紫外線的數字。基本上太異構了。

Okay. The second question is on the Installed Base Management. I mean if we look at the guidance of [flat], again, I understand that the level of upgrade is not as you maybe expect in the current environment. If we look at the guidance of flat , it would imply a decline in H2 year-over-year, at least. So how should we think about the level of -- Peter, you mentioned a small sign of recovery. It's early days, but it's been a small size and the fact that the Installed Base Management, I would imagine would be very close to the demand in terms of recovery or utilization rates picking up. Just trying to reconcile that and how we should think about Installed Base Management into next year with your EUV as well going up and ASP per tool per year, I mean, business model?

好的。第二個問題是關於安裝基礎管理。我的意思是，如果我們再次看一下[平坦]的指導，我明白升級水平並不像您在當前環境下所期望的那樣。如果我們看一下持平的指導，這至少意味著下半年同比會下降。那麼我們該如何看待——彼得，你提到了復甦的一個小跡象。雖然還處於早期階段，但規模還很小，我認為，就恢復率或利用率回升而言，安裝基礎管理將非常接近需求。只是想調和這一點，以及我們應該如何考慮明年的安裝基礎管理，以及您的 EUV 以及每年每台工具的 ASP 的成長，我的意思是商業模式？

Let me first take the question on '23 and then maybe, Peter, you want to expand it further. But as it comes to '23, I think the right frame of reference, of course, is not half year over half year, but is the second half in comparison to the first half. In the first half, we had EUR 2.7 billion and [flat] would mean that we're going to have EUR 3 billion in the second half. So that would point at a recovery. And given the guidance that we've given for Q3, Q3, we indicated EUR 1.4 billion. So it doesn't take a lot of compute power to calculate it. That would mean EUR 1.6 billion for Q4. So that tells you that indeed, we are looking at a recovery there. That would be commensurate with the perspective of the recovery that Peter has been talking about. But that's what we're looking at for this year and the slope of recovery there.

首先讓我回答關於 23 的問題，然後也許，彼得，你想進一步擴展它。但談到 23 年，我認為正確的參考架構當然不是半年與半年的比較，而是下半年與上半年的比較。上半年我們的營收為 27 億歐元，[持平]意味著下半年我們的營收將達到 30 億歐元。所以這表示經濟正在復甦。根據我們對第三季的預測，我們預計第三季的營收為 14 億歐元。因此計算它並不需要大量的計算能力。這意味著第四季的營收為 16 億歐元。這確實說明我們正期待著那裡的復甦。這與彼得一直在談論的復甦前景相符。但這就是我們今年所關注的以及那裡的復甦速度。

Yes. And I think the slope of recovery is critical and very important because like I said, although it's very early, but you could argue and you look at the utilization graphs, you could think that there is an inflection point for Logic. We've had that. And then -- but it's still pretty early on. But if that would continue, then it's really important to look at the slope because for upgrade business, you -- basically, you could argue you have a relatively short period of time before you hit, again high utilization and then customers say, well, I don't have the time. I don't want to shut down the tool. So I think we will watch this very carefully together with our customers to say, okay, looking at the slope, if the slope accelerates, then we really need to start negotiating with the customer quickly to put in more upgrades. And that could be an upside when the recovery accelerates.

是的。我認為復甦的斜率至關重要，因為就像我說的，雖然現在還為時過早，但你可以爭論，看看利用率圖表，你可能會認為邏輯有一個拐點。我們曾經有過這樣的經驗。然後——但現在還為時過早。但如果這種情況持續下去，那麼觀察斜率就非常重要，因為對於升級業務來說，基本上，你可以說，在達到高利用率之前，你只有一段相對較短的時間，然後客戶會說，我沒有時間。我不想關閉該工具。因此，我認為我們會與客戶一起非常仔細地觀察這一點，好吧，看看斜率，如果斜率加速，那麼我們真的需要迅速開始與客戶協商以進行更多升級。當經濟復甦加速時，這可能是個好處。

When it's a slower degree slope, they'll probably take a bit more time. But that's also where it's the same reason. We now have time to do upgrades because we don't have a full utilization of the installed base. So there is some upgrade there. But still, customers are currently saying market is not good. It's still CapEx because there are high value upgrades. So they're a bit cautious now. But yes, we have to start being very close to our customers in the next couple of quarters to say if we see an opportunity, let's go because before you know it, they don't have time.

當坡度較慢時，他們可能需要更多時間。但這也是同樣的原因。我們現在有時間進行升級，因為我們還沒有充分利用已安裝的基礎。因此那裡有一些升級。但目前客戶仍表示市場不太好。它仍然是資本支出，因為有高價值的升級。所以他們現在有點謹慎。但是的，我們必須在接下來的幾季開始與客戶保持密切聯繫，如果我們看到機會，我們就去爭取，因為不知不覺中，他們就沒有時間了。

And your next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc from Societe Generale.

您的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的亞歷山大彼得 (Aleksander Peterc)。

I just have two. First one would be, you talk about the recovery being pushed out somewhat and you do give a cautious message on 2024. So my question is really, is there a possibility that the significant fab openings you talk about in '25 could be pushed out by 6 months or a year? Is that something that's possible? I mean, if the customers have [idle] capacity for longer when they push out capacity additions as a result? Or are all of those strategic plant openings really strategic that will go ahead regardless of demand pattern? That's the first one. I have a follow-up.

我只有兩個。首先，您說復甦會有所推遲，並且您對 2024 年發出了謹慎的信號。所以我的問題是，您所說的 2025 年重要晶圓廠的開業是否有可能被推遲 6 個月或一年？這可能嗎？我的意思是，當客戶因此增加產能時，他們的產能是否會閒置更久？或者說，所有這些戰略工廠的開設真的具有戰略意義，無論需求模式如何都會繼續進行？這是第一個。我有一個後續問題。

Yes. Yes. I think on this -- on the leading-edge logic fabs, they will happen. I mean, they have -- basically, it's not -- and that's driven by the road maps of the customers of our customers. It's the Apples, the Qualcomms, the NVIDIAs of this world, (inaudible) you have a very clear road map based on the 20- or the 3-nanometer designs, and they want those new products to be introduced at that time. So that's going to happen. We have little doubt there. And I think on the strategic fabs in China, I made that very clear. I think it's just a strategic, very clear focus area that they have because they want to hedge against any negative geopolitical repercussions that could come. So that's also strategic. So I see a little downside in 2025.

是的。是的。我認為在尖端邏輯工廠中，這些都會發生。我的意思是，他們有——基本上，它不是——這是由我們客戶的客戶路線圖驅動的。像蘋果、高通、NVIDIA 這樣的公司，（聽不清楚）都有基於 20 奈米或 3 奈米設計的非常清晰的路線圖，他們希望在那時推出這些新產品。所以這將會發生。我們對此毫不懷疑。我認為，關於中國戰略晶圓廠的問題，我已經表達得非常清楚了。我認為這只是他們戰略上非常明確的重點領域，因為他們想規避可能出現的任何負面地緣政治影響。這也是具有戰略意義的。因此我認為 2025 年會出現一些下滑趨勢。

Excellent. And then just kind of a technical follow-up on the EUR 700 million [catch-up] in deep UV that are moving out of fast shipments. Did all of that occur in the second quarter that you reported? Or [is it when] they reported in the current quarter? And [is in] what proportions, please? And while we're talking of fast shipments, our discussions on a similar (inaudible) the table for EUV? Or is that on the table now?

出色的。然後只是對價值 7 億歐元的深紫外線進行技術跟進，這些紫外線正在快速出貨。所有這些都發生在您報告的第二季嗎？或者他們在本季報告的時候？請問比例是多少？當我們談論快速出貨時，我們對 EUV 的類似討論（聽不清楚）是什麼？或者現在正在討論這個？

So the EUR 700 million is the expectation that we have for the end of the year, right? So of course, there will be a little bit of [flux] during the year, but the EUR 700 million is the expectation that we have for that in the year. Of course, we have some of that also in this quarter, but the EUR 700 million really is the expectation that we see for the full year.

那麼，7 億歐元是我們對年底的預期，對嗎？因此，當然，今年會有一點點變化，但 7 億歐元是我們今年的預期。當然，本季我們也實現了部分這樣的目標，但 7 億歐元確實是我們對全年的預期。

As it comes to EUV, it's based on the conversations that we've had with the customers, they are very happy to take the risk of the tool for the immersion tools upon shipment and based upon a shorter testing program for EUV were not there yet. So the question will be also, based on how next year is going to pan out, I think that we're going to get the question of how much fast shipment are we going to see for EUV next year in comparison to normal shipments? I think that's the primary question that we have on EUV. So if you think about the -- to what extent could we have some tailwind from that -- in that regard, I think it will be heavily dependent on what we're going to do in terms of regular versus fast shipment.

就 EUV 而言，根據我們與客戶的對話，他們非常樂意承擔裝運時浸沒式工具的風險，並且基於尚未實施的 EUV 較短測試程序。所以問題也是，基於明年的進展情況，我認為我們將會問，與正常出貨量相比，明年 EUV 的出貨量會有多快？我認為這是我們對 EUV 的主要疑問。因此，如果你想想——我們可以在多大程度上從中獲得一些順風——在這方面，我認為這將在很大程度上取決於我們在常規運輸和快速運輸方面將採取什麼措施。

And there are 2 considerations there for next year. One consideration is that as a standard procedure, when we introduce new technology, we want to test them more, right? So the 3800 clearly is a significant development in our EUV shop, and that means that at least for a number of tools, we want to do more testing and more elaborate testing and therefore, at least for a number of the initial tools, we wouldn't fast ship them. So we will do regular shipments and do the full testing program. And secondly, as I mentioned, it will be dependent on the utilization of our capacity, right? Because fast shipment is a way to get the tool earlier to the customer, but it's also a way to optimize our capacity. So it will be driven by those 2 considerations, what we're going to see there next year in terms of type of shipments, and that will tell you whether or not we're going to get any tailwind for EUV revenue as a result of that.

對於明年有兩點考慮。一個考慮是，作為一項標準程序，當我們引入新技術時，我們希望對其進行更多測試，對嗎？因此，3800 顯然是我們 EUV 車間的一個重大發展，這意味著至少對於許多工具，我們希望進行更多測試和更精細的測試，因此，至少對於許多初始工具，我們不會快速發貨。因此我們將定期發貨並進行全面的測試計劃。其次，正如我所提到的，這將取決於我們的產能利用率，對嗎？因為快速出貨是讓工具更快送達客戶的一種方式，但也是優化我們產能的一種方式。因此，這將取決於這兩個考慮因素，即我們明年將看到什麼樣的出貨量類型，這將告訴你我們是否會因此獲得 EUV 收入的順風。

And your next question comes from the line of Alexander Duval from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的亞歷山大·杜瓦爾 (Alexander Duval)。

You spoke about a pushout in demand timing for EUV. I wonder to what extent we should think about this as a one-off push out from '23 to '24 given the customers presumably would still need these tools for their fabs that are still getting built? And their customers, in turn, have product aspiration for '25 that you've just mentioned? Or to what extent would you expect some 2024 units to be subsequently pushed into 2025? And then I've got a quick follow-up.

您談到了 EUV 需求時間的延遲。我想知道，考慮到客戶可能仍然需要這些工具來用於仍在建設中的晶圓廠，我們應該在多大程度上將此視為從 23 年到 24 年的一次性推進？而他們的客戶反過來又對您剛才提到的 25 年產品抱持著期望？或者您預計 2024 年的部分單位將在多大程度上推遲到 2025 年？然後我有一個快速的跟進。

Good question. We need to realize it. If you look at the reasons, predominantly the (inaudible) had to do with fab readiness. And that was basically driven by construction skills. And you think, well, how can that be? You just hire a couple of construction workers, and you just build a fab. We're just building a EUR 20 billion fab that's going to do a 5- or a 3- or a 2-nanometer product is a skill. And people don't seem to realize that when we start building those fabs across the globe now and now everywhere, that skill is -- has been refined over the last couple of decades in only a few places on the planet, predominantly in Taiwan and in Korea, and a bit in China.

好問題。我們需要認識到這一點。如果你看一下原因，你會發現主要是（聽不清楚）與晶圓廠的準備有關。這基本上是由建築技能所驅動的。你會想，怎麼會這樣呢？你只需僱用幾個建築工人，就可以建造一座工廠。我們正在建造一座價值 200 億歐元的晶圓廠，將生產 5 奈米、3 奈米或 2 奈米產品，這是一項技能。人們似乎沒有意識到，當我們開始在全球各地建造這些晶圓廠時，這種技能在過去的幾十年裡只在地球上的幾個地方得到了完善，主要是在台灣和韓國，還有一點在中國。

Now having to do that now and accelerate this will lead to all kinds of issues because we are still building those fabs in Korea and in Taiwan, but also in other places on the planet, also in the U.S., for instance. So getting access to the requisite skills and skilled workers to keep the construction plan on time is a challenge as at least what customers tell us. And this is the main reason. So you can easily look at a delay of a couple of months or a quarter.

現在必須這樣做並加速這一進程，這將導致各種問題，因為我們仍在韓國和台灣建造這些晶圓廠，但也在地球其他地方建造，例如在美國。因此，獲得必要的技能和熟練的工人以確保施工計劃按時完成是一項挑戰，至少客戶是這麼告訴我們的。這是主要原因。因此，您可以輕鬆地看到幾個月或一個季度的延遲。

Now -- and of course, like I mentioned earlier, we need those 2-nanometer fabs or 3-nanometer fabs in 2025. But it also means we need to resolve in, let's say, an 18-month period, yes, some of those skills gaps. And then -- but I think it might easily be a problem also at the end of next year, but let's see how quickly they can skill up the construction industry to help build those fabs. So that's the predominant reason for the timing changes or the demand timing changes. And of course, has also been in this particular year where there's a few supply chain issues that address 1 or 2 systems, but it was -- predominantly, it was just fab readiness and for the reasons that I just mentioned. And I hope they get reskilled quickly and at the end of 2024, we don't have those issues.

現在——當然，就像我之前提到的，我們需要在 2025 年建成 2 奈米或 3 奈米晶圓廠。但這也意味著我們需要在 18 個月的時間內解決一些技能差距。然後——但我認為這在明年年底也很容易成為一個問題，但讓我們看看他們能多快提高建築業的技能來幫助建造這些晶圓廠。這就是時間變化或需求時間變化的主要原因。當然，今年也出現了一些涉及 1 或 2 個系統的供應鏈問題，但主要是因為晶圓廠的準備情況以及我剛才提到的原因。我希望他們能夠迅速掌握新技能，到 2024 年底，我們就不會再遇到這些問題。

And just a quick follow-up. We've seen some news flow on demand for leading-edge ships driven by AI applications. Can you just share your latest views on any growth opportunity from AI in 2024, given that obviously 2023 shipment schedules are full? I think you alluded in your video prepared remarks [that, that] potentially being an incrementally supportive driver of demand. So just curious for any thoughts there.

這只是一次快速的跟進。我們看到一些關於由人工智慧應用驅動的尖端船舶需求的新聞。鑑於 2023 年的出貨計畫顯然已經排滿，您能否分享一下您對 2024 年人工智慧成長機會的最新看法？我認為您在影片準備好的評論中提到過，這可能會逐漸成為需求的一個支持性驅動力。所以只是好奇那裡有什麼想法。

Yes. I think that's true. But I think we're at the beginning of this, you could say, AI high-power compute wave. So yes, you'll probably see some of that in 2024. But you have to remember that we have some capacity there, which is called the current underutilization. So yes, we will see some of that, but that will be taken up, the particular demand by the installed base. Now -- and that will further accelerate, I'm pretty sure. But that will definitely mean that, that will be, you could say, the shift to customer by 2025. So I don't see that or don't particularly expect that, that will be a big driver for additional shipments in 2024, given the utilization situation that we see today.

是的。我認為這是真的。但我認為我們正處於人工智慧高功率運算浪潮的開始階段。所以是的，你可能會在 2024 年看到一些這樣的情況。但你必須記住，我們在那裡有一些產能，這被稱為當前未充分利用的產能。是的，我們會看到一些這樣的情況，但這將被安裝基數的特定需求所佔據。現在——我非常確定，這一進程將會進一步加速。但這肯定意味著，你可以說，到 2025 年將轉向客戶。因此，考慮到我們今天看到的利用率情況，我不認為或不特別期望這會成為 2024 年額外出貨量的一大驅動力。

And your next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬·夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

Yes. One on domestic China demand, you talked about a fill rate that was less than 50%. Do you expect to be caught up to that exiting this year? Or will you still be trying to kind of fulfill that demand looking into '24?

是的。關於中國國內需求，您談到了供應滿足率低於 50%。您預計今年就能實現這個目標嗎？或者您仍會嘗試在 24 年內滿足這項需求？

Yes. I think we're still -- like we said, also in the prepared remarks that the demand is still more than we can ship. So that also means that we still have a fill rate that's not 100%. It's still lower than -- of course, it's significantly higher than the -- significantly lower than 50% that we saw in '21 and '22, where we had [screening] customers. So we simply couldn't ship [enough, and] China was one of the real victims. Now of course, today, with the fabs being ready there, (inaudible) being there, anything that doesn't ship to any other country goes to China. But there's still some demand that will move into 2024 because we don't have 100% fill rate today.

是的。我認為我們仍然——就像我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，需求仍然超過了我們能夠運送的數量。這也意味著我們的填充率仍不是 100%。當然，它仍然低於——當然，它明顯高於——明顯低於我們在 21 年和 22 年看到的 50%，當時我們對客戶進行了篩選。所以我們根本無法運送足夠的貨物，中國才是真正的受害者之一。當然，現在那裡的晶圓廠已經準備就緒，（聽不清楚）在那裡，任何不運往其他國家的產品都會運往中國。但由於我們目前的供應量尚未達到 100%，因此仍有一些需求會持續到 2024 年。

Got it. And then just as a follow-up. In the recovery of the Installed Base Management business that you talked about implied for 4Q '23, is that predicated on just logic alone? Or is there also some expectation that you see some memory recovery embedded in that?

知道了。然後只是作為後續行動。您談到的 23 年第四季安裝基礎管理業務的復甦是否僅基於邏輯？或者您也期望看到其中嵌入的某種記憶恢復？

I think we don't. Somewhere down the line, there will be a recovery, yes, because that's going to be -- probably when we go through these inflection points in the second half of this year. And then it's all about the slope of the recovery. And this is where we have some uncertainty that we expressed loud and clear, I think. And that's the uncertainty that we get from customers because they don't know either. So I think it's a bit too early.

我認為我們不會。是的，將來一定會出現復甦，因為那很可能是在今年下半年我們經歷這些轉折點的時候。接下來就是有關復甦的斜率了。我認為，這就是我們所不確定的地方，我們已經明確地表達了這一點。這就是我們從客戶那裡得到的不確定性，因為他們也不知道。所以我認為現在還為時過早。

I think it's fair to assume that the utilization rates on memory are lower than the utilization rates on logic, right? So there, it's reasonable to assume that logic would be ahead of the curve in terms of upgrades.

我認為可以公平地假設記憶體的利用率低於邏輯的利用率，對嗎？因此，可以合理地假設邏輯在升級方面會領先於潮流。

Yes, also because -- like I said earlier, you could argue when we look at the stats, you could already see an inflection point. But it's -- like I said, it's very early on. So we just have to see how that continues over the next couple of weeks and months on logic.

是的，也因為——就像我之前說的，你可以說，當我們查看統計數據時，你已經可以看到一個轉折點。但正如我所說，現在還為時過早。因此，我們只需要看看這種情況在接下來的幾週和幾個月內如何繼續下去。

And your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question for Roger. I think you fairly clear on the call that no changes to kind of the capacity adds. So curious how we should think about OpEx growth into 2024?

我想第一個問題應該要問羅傑。我認為您在通話中已經相當清楚了，容量增加沒有任何變化。那麼好奇我們該如何看待 2024 年的營運支出成長？

Yes, I think the OpEx that we're currently guiding for the year, I think that's a pretty good estimate, I think, for what we see for the rest of the year. I think in terms of next year, I think it will also be a little bit dependent on how we further see things develop. And that, to a certain extent, will at least drive also the SG&A side of life.

是的，我認為我們目前指導的今年的營運支出對於我們今年剩餘時間的預期來說是一個相當不錯的估計。我認為就明年而言，這也將在一定程度上取決於我們如何進一步看待事態發展。並且，在某種程度上，這至少也會推動銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 方面的生活。

On R&D, as you know, we continue to have really good ideas. And on R&D, we typically try to play this on the longer term. So I think it is realistic to assume that on R&D, you will see some increase, albeit at a slightly lower pace than the very sharp increases that you've seen in the past couple of years.

在研發方面，如您所知，我們不斷有非常好的想法。在研發方面，我們通常會嘗試從長遠角度進行研發。因此，我認為，可以現實地假設，在研發方面，你會看到一些成長，儘管速度比過去幾年看到的急劇增長略低。

Very helpful. And then, Peter, I guess as a follow-up, I know that you're actively working with the Dutch government. But curious as to your kind of thoughts around any potential time line from hearing from maybe more restrictive kind of thoughts out of the U.S. government.

非常有幫助。然後，彼得，我想作為後續行動，我知道您正在積極與荷蘭政府合作。但我很好奇，您是否對美國政府可能提出的更具限制性的想法有任何想法？

Yes. Of course, we have regular discussions with -- now Dutch government, which is inactive because of the political situation here. So [we are] going to prepare for new elections. But I think we just have to wait what comes out of the U.S. now. But the reason why we said -- based on what our understanding is, and I jokingly said here internally, it wasn't even jokingly, I actually meant it. I've been in this business for quite a long time. And my hunch about what the Dutch were finally going to say in the end was about right. So this is why we (inaudible) March. And I also have a kind of a hunch on what's going to happen for the rest of the year and with the new rules. And my just gut feel is based on what we hear, and our understanding is not going to have a material impact. But having said that, we don't know exactly what the content of those new regulations is going to be. But we just have to wait. I think Japan came out, the Dutch came out. I think the U.S. government will probably come out soon. And then we'll know for sure whether my hunch or my gut feel was correct.

是的。當然，我們與荷蘭政府保持定期討論，但由於當地的政治局勢，荷蘭政府沒有採取任何行動。所以我們將為新的選舉做準備。但我認為我們現在只能等待美國的表態。但是我們之所以這麼說——基於我們的理解，我在這裡內部開玩笑地說，這甚至不是開玩笑，我真的是這個意思。我從事這個行業已經很久了。我對荷蘭人最終會說什麼的預感大致正確。這就是我們（聽不清楚）遊行的原因。我對今年剩餘時間以及新規則下將會發生什麼也有一定的預感。我的直覺只是基於我們所聽到的，我們的理解不會產生實質的影響。但話雖如此，我們並不清楚這些新法規的具體內容。但我們只能等待。我認為日本出局了，荷蘭出局了。我認為美國政府可能很快就會出面。然後我們就能確定我的預感或直覺是否正確。

All right. We have time for one last question. If you are unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question. Now operator, may we have the last caller, please?

好的。我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。如果您無法接通此電話並且仍有疑問，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部門提出您的問題。接線生，請問我們可以接聽最後一位來電嗎？

We will now take your last question for today. And the question comes from Tammy Qiu from Berenberg.

我們現在來回答您今天的最後一個問題。這個問題來自貝倫貝格的 Tammy Qiu。

Firstly, Peter, relating to your China exposure, do you have any format of customer concentration, i.e., does one or few customer accounting for more than, let's say, 50% of the demand from China at all?

首先，彼得，關於你們在中國的業務，你們是否有任何客戶集中度的形式，即是否有一個或幾個客戶佔中國需求的 50% 以上？

No. I think it's the -- the number of customers in China is significantly higher than -- and I just talked about the spread of the customer significantly higher than anywhere on the planet. It has to do with the fact that it also goes back to where Chinese industry, I don't talk about the semiconductor industry, but the industry in general is actually growing. It grows in those areas which are covered by the big megatrends. And that means that specific requirements for semiconductors to support those trends actually ask for very significant and different applications that put the demand on this wide range of mid-critical to mature semiconductors. And there's a lot. And that also means that you see customers -- semiconductor customers now focusing on certain of those areas. It means you have many, many customers, yes? And that's -- so it's pretty widespread, whether it's memory, whether it's logic or foundry, it's almost everything, but many of them and very much focused on specific parts of the industry. So yes, it's on the contrary. I mean it's not specifically focused on 1 or 2 customers. It's a broad based.

不，我認為中國的客戶數量明顯高於——我剛才談到了客戶分佈明顯高於地球上任何地方。這與中國工業的發展有關，我指的不是半導體工業，而是整個工業實際上正在成長。它在那些被大趨勢所涵蓋的領域中成長。這意味著，支持這些趨勢的半導體的特定要求實際上要求非常重要和不同的應用，這些應用對這種廣泛的中期關鍵到成熟的半導體提出了需求。還有很多。這也意味著你會看到客戶——半導體客戶現在專注於其中某些領域。這代表你有很多很多客戶，對嗎？這就是說 — — 所以它相當普遍，無論是內存、邏輯還是代工，幾乎涵蓋了一切，但其中很多都非常專注於行業的特定部分。是的，事實恰恰相反。我的意思是它並不專門關注 1 或 2 個客戶。它的基礎很廣泛。

Okay. And also, you mentioned that you can actually ship the mid-critical machines to China and still basically allow them to do whatever they want to. So let's say, the mainstream you are shipping to China from an immersion perspective in 1980, if you can only ship something like 1970 or older machine, do you think that can allow them to do what they want to do?

好的。而且，您提到您實際上可以將中期關鍵機器運送到中國，並且基本上允許他們做任何他們想做的事情。那麼，假設從 1980 年的沉浸式體驗角度來看，您要向中國運送的主流產品，如果您只能運送 1970 年或更老的機器，您認為這能讓他們做他們想做的事情嗎？

Yes. You have to realize that when you ship an immersion tool and just do the math, which is the wavelength of the light over the numerical aperture of the lens. That's 193 over 1.33 [times a K] factor, which is the process factor, which is an absolute minimum of 0.26 because beyond that, you don't have any contrast. So if you do the math, do it on your calculator, you come to 38-nanometer. So whether it's in 1970 or 1980 or 2000 or 2100, it's 38-nanometer. So how do you get smaller sizes. That is where you start using double patterning, and that's basically determined by your capabilities of materials, which is deposition and etch. So It's, of course, the most advanced have one determining factor in that, it's the precision with which the tool works.

是的。您必須意識到，當您運送浸入式工具時，只需進行計算，即可得出光的波長除以鏡頭的數值孔徑。這是 193 除以 1.33 [乘以 K] 因子，這是過程因子，其絕對最小值是 0.26，因為超過這個值，就沒有任何對比。因此，如果你進行計算，用計算器計算，你會得到 38 奈米的結果。因此，無論是 1970 年、1980 年、2000 年或 2100 年，都是 38 奈米。那麼如何獲得更小的尺寸呢？這就是您開始使用雙重圖案化的地方，基本上取決於材料的能力，即沉積和蝕刻。因此，當然，最先進的決定因素是工具工作的精確度。

And this is where, if you look at the Dutch regulation, it doesn't mention a [tight] name. It just mentions a technical specification, which focuses on the precision with which the tool works. That's where the cutoff point is. But in terms of feature size, it's the same. But it's really the precision with which you can position the feature size on the wafer. That's where the cutoff point is. And that's determined in the regulation. So it's all deposition and etch.

如果你看荷蘭法規，你會發現它並沒有提到[嚴格的]名稱。它只是提到了技術規格，重點關注工具工作的精確度。這就是截止點所在。但就特徵尺寸而言，它們是相同的。但它實際上指的是晶圓上特徵尺寸的定位精度。這就是截止點所在。這是法規所規定的。所以這都是沉積和蝕刻。

All right. Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

好的。現在，我謹代表 ASML 感謝大家今天的參加。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes the ASML 2023 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。 ASML 2023 年第二季財務業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。