艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2024 third-quarter financial results conference call on October 15, 2024. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2024 年 10 月 15 日舉行的 ASML 2024 年第三季財務業績電話會議。

I would now like to hand the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話會議交給斯基普·米勒先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President, Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet; and our CFO, Roger Dassen.

謝謝你，接線生。歡迎大家。我是斯基普·米勒 (Skip Miller)，ASML 投資者關係副總裁。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是 ASML 執行長 Christophe Fouquet；和我們的財務長羅傑·達森。

The subject of today's call is ASML's 2024 third-quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and the questions will be taken in the order that they are received. [This call] is also being broadcast live over the internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2024 年第三季業績。本次通話時間為 60 分鐘，問題將依照收到的順序回答。 [本次通話]也在 asml.com 上透過網路進行現場直播。本次電話會議結束後不久，我們的網站上將提供管理層開場白和電話會議重播的記錄。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and the presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。對於風險因素的討論，我鼓勵您查看今天的新聞稿中包含的安全港聲明以及我們網站 asml.com 上的演示文稿以及 ASML 表格 20-F 的年度報告以及向證券公司提交的其他文件和交易委員會。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Christophe Fouquet for a brief introduction.

說到這裡，我想將電話轉給 Christophe Fouquet，讓他做一個簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third-quarter 2024 results conference call. First, let me apologize for the confusion yesterday after the early publication of our press release due to a technical error. Particularly given the serious nature of the key messages we wanted to deliver and discuss with you, this was very important.

謝謝你，斯基普。歡迎大家，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第三季業績電話會議。首先，請允許我為昨天由於技術錯誤而提前發布我們的新聞稿而造成的混亂表示歉意。特別是考慮到我們想要傳達和與您討論的關鍵訊息的嚴肅性，這一點非常重要。

Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentaries on the third quarter 2024, as well as provide some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook. Roger?

在我們開始問答環節之前，羅傑和我想對 2024 年第三季進行概述和一些評論，並對當前的業務環境和我們未來的業務前景提供一些額外的評論。羅傑？

Thank you, Christophe, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the third-quarter 2024 financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the fourth quarter of 2024.

謝謝克里斯托夫，歡迎大家。我將首先回顧 2024 年第三季的財務成就，然後提供 2024 年第四季的指導。

Let me start with our third-quarter accomplishments. Total net sales came in at EUR7.5 billion, which is above the high end of our guidance, driven by more DPV system sales, as well as higher installed base management sales.

讓我從我們第三季的成就開始。由於 DPV 系統銷售增加以及安裝基礎管理銷售增加，淨銷售總額達到 75 億歐元，高於我們指導的上限。

Net system sales came in at EUR5.9 billion, which is made up of EUR2.1 billion of EUV sales and EUR3.8 billion of non-EUV sales. Net system sales was driven by Logic at 64%, with the remaining 36% coming from memory. Installed base management sales for the quarter came in above guidance at EUR1.54 billion due to higher service and upgrade revenue.

系統淨銷售額為 59 億歐元，其中 EUV 銷售額為 21 億歐元，非 EUV 銷售額為 38 億歐元。淨系統銷售額由 Logic 推動，佔 64%，其餘 36% 來自記憶體。由於服務和升級收入增加，本季安裝基礎管理銷售額達到 15.4 億歐元，高於預期。

Gross margin for the quarter came in within guidance at 50.8%.

該季度毛利率為 50.8%，符合預期。

On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in slightly below guidance at EUR1.06 billion, while SG&A expenses came in as guided at EUR297 million. [in Q3] was EUR2.1 billion, representing 27.8% of total net sales and resulting in an EPS of EUR5.28.

在營運費用方面，研發費用略低於指導值 10.6 億歐元，而銷售、一般管理費用則為指導價值 2.97 億歐元。 [第三季]為 21 億歐元，佔總淨銷售額的 27.8%，每股盈餘為 5.28 歐元。

Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the third quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR5.0 billion, similar to last quarter. We ended Q3 with a free cash flow of EUR500, which is somewhat improved relative to last quarter. However, as mentioned last quarter, there continue to be pressure on free cash flow. This is primarily due to a relatively low level of order and order intake and therefore less downpayments, as well as higher inventory level. The higher inventory levels primarily attributable to EUV, both high NA and low NA, driven by longer lead times in the build cycle as well as inventory in support of future ramp.

談到資產負債表，第三季末我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資達到 50 億歐元，與上季類似。第三季結束時，我們的自由現金流為 500 歐元，相對於上季有所改善。然而，正如上季提到的，自由現金流仍然面臨壓力。這主要是由於訂單和訂單量相對較低，因此首付款較少，以及庫存水平較高。庫存水準較高主要歸因於 EUV（高 NA 和低 NA），這是由建造週期中較長的交貨時間以及支持未來產能提升的庫存推動的。

Moving to the ARC. Q3 net system bookings came in at EUR2.6 billion, which is made up of EUR1.4 billion of EUV bookings and EUR1.2 billion dose of non-EUV bookings. System bookings in the quarter was more or less balanced between memory it for 54% and Logic at 46% of bookings. The relatively low order intake is a reflection of the slow recovery in the traditional end markets as customers remain cautious in the current environment. At the end of Q3 2024, we finished with a backlog of over EUR36 billion.

搬到ARC。第三季淨系統預訂量為 26 億歐元，其中包括 14 億歐元的 EUV 預訂量和 12 億歐元的非 EUV 預訂量。本季的系統預訂量大致平衡，記憶體佔預訂量的 54%，邏輯預訂量佔 46%。訂單量相對較低反映出傳統終端市場復甦緩慢，客戶在當前環境下仍保持謹慎態度。截至 2024 年第三季末，我們的積壓訂單超過 360 億歐元。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the fourth quarter 2024, we expect Q4 total net sales to be between EUR8.8 billion and EUR9.2 billion. We expect our Q4 installed base management sales to be around EUR1.9 billion. Gross margin for Q4 is expected to be between 49% and 50%.

接下來，我想談談我們對 2024 年第四季的預期，我們預計第四季總淨銷售額將在 88 億歐元至 92 億歐元之間。我們預計第四季的安裝基數管理銷售額約為 19 億歐元。第四季毛利率預計在 49% 至 50% 之間。

I would like to make a few comments on the Q4 guidance. Net sales include the expected revenue recognition of two high-NA systems. Installed base management revenue is higher than Q3, primarily as a result of achieving specific EUV performance milestones and some easy productivity upgrades.

我想對第四季度的指導發表一些評論。淨銷售額包括兩個高數值孔徑系統的預期收入確認。安裝基礎管理收入高於第三季度，主要是由於實現了特定的 EUV 性能里程碑和一些簡單的生產力升級。

Although Q4 revenue is higher than Q3, gross margin is expected to be slightly lower than Q3, as the positive impact from the higher upgrade revenue is more than offset by the dilutive gross margin and revenue recognition of the to pioneer systems for the quarter. Dilute our off on the gross margin is at 3.5%.

儘管第四季度收入高於第三季度，但毛利率預計將略低於第三季度，因為升級收入較高的正面影響被本季先鋒系統的攤薄毛利率和收入確認所抵消。稀釋後我們的毛利率為3.5%。

Based on the Q4 guidance, we expect 2020 for revenue around EUR28 billion, with a gross margin of around 50.6% was slightly lower than 2023. As expected, expected R&D expense for Q4 are around EUR1 billion and minus EUR90 million. And SG&A is expected to be around EUR300 million. Our estimated 2024 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 16% and 17%.

根據第四季指引，我們預計2020 年營收約280 億歐元，毛利率約為50.6%，略低於2023 年。歐元。 SG&A 預計約 3 億歐元。我們預計 2024 年年化有效稅率預計在 16% 至 17% 之間。

In Q3, ASML paid the first quarterly interim dividend over 2024 of EUR1.5 per ordinary share. Second quarterly interim dividend over 2024 will be EUR1.32 per ordinary share and will be made table payable on November 7, 2024. In Q3 2024, no shares were purchased.

第三季度，ASML 支付了 2024 年第一季中期股息，每股普通股 1.5 歐元。 2024 年第二季中期股利將為每股普通股 1.32 歐元，並將於 2024 年 11 月 7 日支付。

With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Christophe.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉回克里斯托夫。

Thank you all as it was a solid financial quarter, but there were also a number of market dynamics in the quarter. Starting with our technology, we can do to make good progress on both our new UV products on our low in technology and the NXE 3800 system this quarter with EUV customers now rapidly shifting to this new model to its I/O performance, including of 37% cent improvement in food compared to the NXE. 36 hundred mg. We have now demonstrated the full 220 with apparels throughput at a new record overlay in of fleets, and we are on track to deliver full specification system with new system shipment and upgrades from the beginning of next year.

謝謝大家，因為這是一個穩健的財務季度，但該季度也出現了許多市場動態。從我們的技術開始，本季我們可以在技術含量較低的新 UV 產品和 NXE 3800 系統上取得良好進展，EUV 客戶現在迅速轉向這種新型號的 I/O 性能，包括 37與NXE 相比，食物改善了%%。 36百毫克。我們現在已經展示了完整的 220 系統，其服裝吞吐量達到了新的記錄，並且我們預計從明年初開始通過新系統發貨和升級來提供完整規格的系統。

As customer transition to the NXT. 38 of the E, the majority of shipments in Q4 of the NXT. 38 hundred E-Systems, forgetting I&A. The two shifts system are now exposing wafers at our customer, and we expect to recognize the revenue from the system by the end of the year. First system, you're being shipped to a second major customer momentum continues to grow around 10,000 wafers. Now exports from multiple logic and memory customers using the system into joint ASML.

隨著客戶過渡到 NXT。 E 的 38 顆，NXT 第四季的大部分出貨量。 3800 個電子系統，忘記 I&A。兩班制系統現已在我們的客戶處曝光晶圓，我們預計將在年底前確認系統的收入。第一個系統，您正在向第二個主要客戶運送約 10,000 個晶圓的勢頭繼續增長。現在使用該系統的多個邏輯和記憶體客戶將其匯出到聯合 ASML。

I make any lab and the systems in the field a recent conference, we publish new IT data showing measure of performance benefits in overlay and contrast. Those benefits also indicates a significant cost reduction opportunities for both logic and DRAM customers. As a reminder of the value I&D provides, we have the feeder system ability to print feature resolution of eight nanometer compared to a low energy system. This represents an improvement to nearly three times in transistor density. So all in all, we have seen continued momentum on EUV technology, and we are well relative to customer expectations.

我將任何實驗室和該領域的系統作為最近的會議，我們發布了新的 IT 數據，顯示了疊加和對比效能優勢的衡量標準。這些優勢也顯示邏輯和 DRAM 客戶有顯著降低成本的機會。為了提醒人們 I&D 提供的價值，與低能耗系統相比，我們的送料系統能夠列印 8 奈米的特徵解析度。這意味著晶體管密度提高了近三倍。總而言之，我們看到了 EUV 技術的持續發展勢頭，我們與客戶的期望非常吻合。

With regards to market conditions, while we continue to view a I as a key driver of the industry recovery with potential upside, we see other segments recovering more slowly than anticipated. The recovery will extend well into 2025, which some cautiousness and some push-outs in their investment. You take the slow recovery of end markets combined NPC, together with specific specific competitive foundry dynamics resulted in a slower ramp of new nodes at certain customer who has a resource pushing out some of their fabs and changing the only full demand changing.

就市場狀況而言，雖然我們繼續將 I 視為行業復甦的關鍵驅動力並具有潛在的上升空間，但我們認為其他細分市場的復甦速度比預期慢。復甦將持續到 2025 年，他們的投資有些謹慎，但也有一些退出。終端市場的緩慢復甦結合了NPC，再加上特定的競爭性代工動態，導致某些客戶的新節點增長速度較慢，這些客戶擁有資源，推出了一些晶圓廠，並改變了唯一的全面需求變化。

The slower market recovery is also resulting in limited capacity addition, still on technology transition supporting the high-bandwidth memory and DDAI. related demand. And finally, we expect the China business to go back to a more normalized percentage of our business in line versus entered China business in our backlog.

市場復甦緩慢也導致容量增加有限，仍處於支援高頻寬記憶體和 DDAI 的技術轉型過程中。相關需求。最後，我們預期中國業務將恢復到我們積壓業務中比進入中國業務更正常的比例。

In summary, why the long-term trends are still very strong and positive months over the past few months, combined with some specific circumstances as led to reduced growth curve in 2025 and an overall reduction of our lithographic demand. Due to these denied dynamics, we felt it would be appropriate to make some comments on 2025 at this time versus waiting until our Investor Day next months.

綜上所述，為什麼過去幾個月的長期趨勢仍然非常強勁和積極，再加上一些具體情況導致 2025 年成長曲線縮小，以及我們的光刻需求整體減少。由於這些被否認的動態，我們認為此時對 2025 年發表一些評論是合適的，而不是等到下個月的投資者日。

With that, I will turn it back over to Roger.

這樣，我會將其轉回給羅傑。

Thanks, Christophe. And as we discussed in our Investor Day in 2022, we provided markets 25 of between EUR30 billion, EUR2 billion with a gross margin of between 54 56%. From the recent market dynamics that Christophe just described, we now see 2025 revenue moving to the low range. So between EUR30 billion and EUR35 billion, to a large extent, this is driven by a significant reduction in our expected lower shipments from 25 to fewer than 50. We also now expect sales to be around 20% of total revenue next year, trending back towards Ore Hill, China percentage and in line with its share of the backlog.

謝謝，克里斯托夫。正如我們在 2022 年投資者日討論的那樣，我們為 25 個市場提供了 300 億歐元至 20 億歐元的市場，毛利率在 54% 至 56% 之間。從 Christophe 剛剛描述的近期市場動態來看，我們現在看到 2025 年收入將走向低檔。因此，在300 億歐元到350 億歐元之間，很大程度上是由於我們預計的出貨量從25 輛大幅減少到不到50 輛。 % 左右，呈回落趨勢朝向礦石山的中國百分比與其積壓份額一致。

With regard to gross margin, what are the key drivers of the expected improvement was largely driven by both an increase in a number of systems as well as I move to the higher margin, 38 hundred system from the gross margin for the 38 hundred E. has been achieved. The large reduction and using unit numbers for next year is significant. The margin dilutive comparison to earlier expectations. Also, the reduction of our China sales, which typically contain a high percentage of immersion sales, is dilutive to our gross margin. Based on the current outlook of lower than the less favorable mix. In comparison to the Investor Day, we now expect a gross margin of between 51% and 53% in 2025.

關於毛利率，預期改善的關鍵驅動因素主要是由系統數量的增加以及我從毛利率為 3800 E 轉向更高毛利率的 3800 系統推動的。明年的大幅減少和使用單位數量意義重大。與先前的預期相比，利潤率已稀釋。此外，我們在中國的銷售（通常包含很高比例的沉浸式銷售）的減少也稀釋了我們的毛利率。基於目前的前景，低於不太有利的組合。與投資者日相比，我們目前預計 2025 年毛利率將在 51% 至 53% 之間。

In comparison to 2020. For the 2025 gross margin is expected to benefit from the higher gross margin on the 38 hundred E gradual margin improvement on High-NA and the improvement in EUV service margin, the law to see it dilutive margin effect of recognizing more high need tools in red on operational expenses. For 2025, we expect total OpEx to be at the upper at the upper end of the bandwidth of 5.6 billion to 6.1 billion provided during this Investor Day in 2022, we will continue with our R&D roadmap and have been able to absorb the significant wage inflation effect since 2022. Within the bandwidth.

與2020年相比。利潤效應營運費用上所需的紅色工具。到 2025 年，我們預計總營運支出將達到 2022 年投資者日期間提供的 56 億至 61 億頻寬的上限，我們將繼續我們的研發路線圖，並能夠吸收顯著的薪資上漲自2022 年起生效。

With that once again handed over to Christophe.

說完，再次交給了克利斯朵夫。

Thank you, Roger. As we look out longer term, consistent with what we have previously stated, the secular growth drivers in the semiconductor end markets are still very much intact. Ai energy transition. Electrification, among other applications, continue to provide a very strong and very positive perspective to our industry and a similar business to expanding application space, along with the increasingly so graphene needs on future technology nodes, drive demand for both advanced and Windstream nodes in line with most of our industry peers. We continue to see a I Allied and continue to watch carefully Aldila factors on the short and the nanometer.

謝謝你，羅傑。從長遠來看，與我們之前所說的一致，半導體終端市場的長期成長動力仍然完好無損。艾能源轉型。除此之外，電氣化繼續為我們的行業提供非常強大和非常積極的前景，以及擴大應用空間的類似業務，以及未來技術節點上石墨烯需求的日益增長，推動了對先進節點和 Windstream 節點的需求與我們大多數同行一起。我們繼續關注 I Allied，並繼續仔細觀察 Aldila 對短和奈米的影響。

Despite some of the push-outs we have discussed, we continue to prepare for a number of new fabs that are being built across the globe to address the future. The image of the industry. Both sides of spread geographically are strategic for our customers and are scheduled to take our system. We will, therefore, continue to build capacity in order to respond to the demand increase that we expect fraud the remainder of this decade, we will provide a more detailed assessments together with the scenarios of 2030 at our investor day, December 14, 2024. We look forward to seeing you there.

儘管我們已經討論了一些淘汰問題，但我們仍在繼續為全球各地正在建造的一些新晶圓廠做好準備，以應對未來的挑戰。行業形象。地理分佈的雙方對於我們的客戶來說都具有戰略意義，並且計劃採用我們的系統。因此，我們將繼續建立能力，以應對我們預計在本十年剩餘時間內欺詐的需求增長，我們將在 2024 年 12 月 14 日投資者日提供更詳細的評估以及 2030 年的情景。那裡見到您。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

這樣，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Rochelle and Christoph. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session before hand, I'd like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-up if necessary. This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible.

謝謝羅謝爾和克里斯托夫。接線員會事先向您介紹問答環節的協議，如有必要，請您將自己限制在一個問題上，並進行簡短的跟進。這將使我們能夠接觸到盡可能多的來電者。

Now, operator, could we have your final instructions in the first question, please?

現在，接線員，請問您對第一個問題有最後的指示嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）Joe Quatrochi，富國銀行。

Yes, thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to kind of understand the change that you're talking about in terms of the China demand. What are you seeing there that this normalization? And as we would have to think about what in your 2025 guy here and ensure non-China, do you view the revenue? It seems like you're embedding a tray signage again, increase year over year. What's the underpinning driver of that.

是的，感謝您提出問題。我想了解你所說的中國需求的變化。您在這種正常化中看到了什麼？由於我們必須考慮 2025 年的人會做什麼並確保非中國人，您認為收入如何？看起來你又在嵌入托盤標誌了，而且逐年增加。其根本驅動力是什麼？

Thanks, Joe. So when it comes to and when it comes to China, and I think it's a combination of two things. As we've said before, in the past two years, we've been building into our backlog for China, and that backlog has come to that level simply because in the years before that we were we had a fairly low low order fill rate order fill rate for us. And so as a result of that backlog buildup in the past because of the the global market circumstances we were able to to to to deliver on that on that backlog. So that's why the China sales in 2023 in 2024 have been so high that as a result. But before that, we expect that a certain point in time for that to normalize. And that is, I think, what you now see in the number that's one driver.

謝謝，喬。因此，當談到中國時，我認為這是兩件事的結合。正如我們之前所說，在過去的兩年裡，我們一直在增加中國的積壓訂單，而積壓訂單已經達到這個水平，僅僅是因為在此之前的幾年裡，我們的訂單履行率相當低我們的訂單履行率。因此，由於過去積壓的積壓，由於全球市場環境，我們能夠努力解決積壓的問題。所以這就是為什麼2023年2024年中國銷量這麼高的原因。但在此之前，我們預期這種情況會在某個時間點恢復正常。我認為，這就是您現在在一名司機的數字中看到的。

Secondly, I think we all read the newspapers, right? We all we all see that there is speculation around around export controls that as a driver for us to take a more cautious view on the on the China sales. So with that binds and we see is that we believe the China sales for next year are going to go to, let's say, 20% of our expected sales level for next year.

其次，我想我們都會讀報紙，對嗎？我們都看到，圍繞出口管制存在著猜測，這促使我們對中國銷售採取更加謹慎的看法。因此，我們認為明年的中國銷售額將達到我們明年預期銷售額水準的 20%。

When it comes to DPV. under the non-IT of the Deep UV business, if you do the math, a little bit of our expectation is that a deep UV business next year will be lower than it is this year. So we believe deeply we will forgo that will go down a bit. But you're right. I mean, with the decline in our business going down as we've index, that means that the non-China a part of the of the DPBDPV., this will go up.

說到DPV。在深紫外線業務的非IT下，如果你算一下，我們的一點預期是明年的深紫外線業務將低於今年。因此，我們深信我們會放棄這一點，這會有所下降。但你是對的。我的意思是，隨著我們的指數下降，我們的業務下降，這意味著 DPBDPV 的非中國部分將會上升。

And then the main reason is that if you look at if you get these more advanced nodes and if you do the math on the growth that that you anticipate in the EUV business for next year, you will see that there is quite some growth there in the combination of low and a and I know you will see and some growth there. And I think what you're going to see is that the non-China part of the DTV business is sort of following that trend. So that the attached rate, if you want to call it like that of the DPV. business to the e-business will be it will be will the summer. So the growth rate, you will see how easy it will sort of feedback also in the growth rate for the non-China part of the DP. the business.

主要原因是，如果你看看是否獲得了這些更先進的節點，並且對明年 EUV 業務的預期增長進行了計算，你會發現在低和a的組合，我知道你會看到那裡的一些增長。我認為您將會看到數位電視業務的非中國部分正在追隨這一趨勢。如果您想像 DPV 那樣稱呼它，則附加速率。業務轉向電子商務將是在夏天。因此，就成長率而言，您會看到 DP 的非中國部分的成長率也有多容易獲得回饋。業務。

Got it. That's up on that as a follow-up, I wanted to show to understand a little bit better than the 2025 gross margin guidance in the commentary. I can certainly appreciate the lower mix of low in a, but for total revenues of the kind of within the low end of the target range, I think it would still imply that your immersion shift events maybe being down year over year. It sounds like still better you're thinking about from the target model, which I think would be a positive for in terms of offsetting to some of the mix. And maybe can you help us unpack that a little bit of just how do you think about like the inversion relative to what you're thinking about at the Analyst Day in 2022 and that mix effect?

知道了。作為後續行動，我想表現出比評論中的 2025 年毛利率指導更好的理解。我當然可以欣賞較低的低組合，但對於目標範圍低端內的總收入，我認為這仍然意味著您的沉浸式轉變事件可能會逐年下降。聽起來你從目標模型中考慮的更好，我認為這對於抵消某些混合方面是積極的。也許您能幫我們解釋一下您是如何思考的，例如相對於您在 2022 年分析師日的想法的倒轉以及混合效應？

Yes. So Joe immersion in comparison to the to the Investor Day in 2022, I think they're there. You will see that the margin is not dramatically different from the expectations that we had in 2020, 22. So the emergent expectation has gone up a bit. But with everything I just told you, including or view, and I think Immersion has come down and that has come down there. And all in all, I think are emerging views now dramatically different from what we held out at the at the Investor Day for the length.

是的。因此，與 2022 年投資者日相比，喬的沉浸感很高，我認為他們就在那裡。您會發現，利潤率與我們在 2020 年的預期並沒有太大差異，22。但根據我剛才告訴你的一切，包括或視圖，我認為沉浸感已經下降，而且已經下降了。總而言之，我認為現在出現的觀點與我們在投資人日所持的觀點截然不同。

If you if you simply contrasted glargine that we have that we now articulate for 2025 and compare that to the gross margin that we are ticket as ago, it really is to a very large extent. It is driven by easy and there are two elements and easy to do this. one one element is volume. So the volume that we have on using now in our model with 50 is substantially below the numbers that you saw in the in the investor day of November 20th to interact in there because in 2022, we were we were looking at some of the mix, i.e., 38 hundred was going to dominate. And the fact we were expecting a few for thousands. And as a result of the dynamics in the in the market will achieve quite close to 36 hundreds in there in 2025 as well.

如果你簡單地對比我們現在為 2025 年制定的甘精胰島素，並將其與我們之前的毛利率進行比較，你會發現它確實在很大程度上。它是由 easy 驅動的，有兩個元素並且很容易做到這一點。一一元素是體積。因此，我們現在在模型中使用的交易量為 50，遠低於您在 11 月 20 日投資者日看到的互動數量，因為在 2022 年，我們正在考慮其中的一些組合，也就是說，3800人將佔據主導地位。事實上，我們期待的是幾千人。由於市場的動態，到 2025 年，該市場的數量也將達到近 3,600 個。

The 38 hundred will dominate, but it will clearly be 36 hundred's and there as well. So there is also LA. and ASP. and gross margin mix effect in there. That combination of not particularly a significantly lower number of units and also the mix effect in the in the US. That is primary driving down the gross margin expectation in comparison to what we were looking at in November of 22. And then the unit effect is by far the biggest effect in data in that and that explanation.

3800 人將占主導地位，但顯然也將是 3600 人。所以還有洛杉磯。和ASP。和毛利率混合效應在那裡。這種組合並不是特別明顯減少的單位數量以及美國的混合效應。與我們 22 日 11 月的情況相比，這是毛利率預期下降的主要原因。

Well. Thank you.

出色地。謝謝。

Didier Scemama, Bank of America.

迪迪埃·斯塞馬瑪，美國銀行。

Yes, good afternoon, and thank you so much for taking my question. Roger stuff. I don't know when you look at the cuts you've made to EUV shipments for next year, call it 20 to 25 low in this systems. How much of that do you think spills over 26? And I've got a follow up. Thank you.

是的，下午好，非常感謝您提出我的問題。羅傑的東西。我不知道你什麼時候會看到明年 EUV 出貨量的削減，在這個系統中稱之為 20 到 25 低。您認為其中有多少會超出 26？我有後續行動。謝謝。

I think it's a difficult question, as you can imagine, because I think the feedback we have got from our customer in the last few months was about pushing out those two. So ICKU. magically this move into 2026. I think that's too simple way to look at that. The thing that we have to, of course, over time reconfirm the dynamic of the market, I would say, for the second half of 25 and 26.

我認為這是一個困難的問題，正如你可以想像的那樣，因為我認為過去幾個月我們從客戶那裡得到的回饋是關於推出這兩個。所以ICKU。奇蹟般地進入了 2026 年。當然，隨著時間的推移，我們必須重新確認 25 月和 26 月下半年的市場動態。

So if you think about mathematically, we have talked about pushout because we really see our customer delaying basically their fabs. We don't see a customer basically changing their mind on those fat. So that's why we refer to push out. Of course, 26 is is an opportunity to see the lack. But like I say, you know, there's still a long way until 2026, and we will continue to watch the market dynamics there.

因此，如果你從數學角度考慮，我們已經討論了推出，因為我們確實看到我們的客戶基本上推遲了他們的晶圓廠。我們沒有看到顧客基本上改變對這些脂肪的看法。這就是為什麼我們提到推出。當然，26是一個看到不足的機會。但就像我說的，你知道，距離 2026 年還有很長的路要走，我們將繼續關注那裡的市場動態。

Accident. And a follow-up to that would be how much of the push out is a reflection of just the and demanding pool versus maybe several of your customers struggling with process technology and attracting effectively customers to justify the construction of the factories?

事故。後續的問題是，有多少推出是因為需求量大，而不是因為您的幾個客戶在工藝技術方面苦苦掙扎，並有效吸引客戶來證明工廠建設的合理性？

I think it's a it's also it's a mix of that. I think that we will probably because I think this effect to every single customer. So we are still quite optimistic about a I sit here today without the IT market would be very sad. If you ask me a bit for the rest, Asseco customer counts, just to confirm that when it comes to find when it comes to PCPC. sorry, when it comes to automotive, the recovery is not what I see a one had wished for, I would say, a large part of our customer on all segments and application.

我認為這是一個它也是它的混合。我認為我們可能會這樣做，因為我認為這對每位客戶都有影響。所以我們還是比較樂觀的，我今天坐在這裡如果沒有IT市場會非常難過。如果你問我剩下的問題，Asseco 客戶很重要，只是為了確認一下，當談到 PCPC 時。抱歉，就汽車而言，復甦並不是我所希望的，我想說的是，我們所有細分市場和應用程式的大部分客戶都希望看到這種復甦。

I think we also, indeed mentioned as well from a competitive dynamic on logic. I see that also has been express a plans in the press in the last three months. I think that's not really new for you. And this also contribute to some of the of the pushout. So I think those two things are clearly two dynamics that have come up in the last few months. And to a level where our physically state started to really make a decision that we are in line with their expectation, both on the total market, but also maybe in some cases on the share, they may end up having him on the logic market.

我想我們確實也提到了競爭動態的邏輯。我看到過去三個月在媒體上也表達了一個計劃。我認為這對你來說並不新鮮。這也導致了一些退出。所以我認為這兩件事顯然是過去幾個月出現的兩種動態。當我們的身體狀況開始真正決定我們符合他們的預期時，無論是在整個市場上，還是在某些情況下，在份額上，他們最終可能會讓他進入邏輯市場。

Makes sense. And just a tiny follow-up too rosy, if I may. When you look at them, your IB revenues in Q4, there is a big step-up. Can you give us a sense as to whether that's the sort of a new, a new normal and especially thinking about 25 in your guidance and coming back to the point that was raised earlier on the DUV revenues, which are look optimistic. So it is digital-based manager. I'm going to grow a lot in flexibly picks up the bottom a little bit from the UV. Thank you.

有道理。如果可以的話，還有一個小小的後續行動，太樂觀了。當您查看第四季度的 IB 收入時，您會看到一個很大的成長。您能否讓我們了解這是否是一種新的、新的常態，特別是在您的指導中考慮 25，並回到之前就 DUV 收入提出的觀點，該收入看起來很樂觀。所以它是基於數字的經理。我會在從 UV 底部靈活拾取一點點的過程中成長很多。謝謝。

Yes, the JI. I wouldn't say that it's the new normal as we also explained in our today and earlier. And also as we exit the new video, there is clearly also a one-off effect in their meeting certain performance targets. So that was one reason that we expect a that's a one-off effect, if you like, in the we see for Q4.

是的，JI。我不會說這是新常態，正如我們在今天和早些時候所解釋的那樣。而且，當我們退出新影片時，它們在滿足某些性能目標方面顯然也會產生一次性效果。因此，如果您願意的話，這就是我們預計第四季度會出現一次性效應的原因之一。

That said, we do believe that the installed base business, both on the service side and also on the upgrade side, is going to grow in a quite healthy way to work in 2025. So yes, we do project that, that it will, but there would be quite healthy growth in that. There was a healthy double digit growth is as we currently see it. And the insight, our base 19 and 25 minutes, apparently for me.

也就是說，我們確實相信，無論是在服務方面還是在升級方面，安裝基礎業務都將在 2025 年以相當健康的方式增長。相當健康的成長。正如我們目前看到的那樣，出現了健康的兩位數增長。以及洞察力，我們的基礎 19 和 25 分鐘，顯然適合我。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna.

邁赫迪·侯賽尼，薩斯奎哈納。

So thanks for taking my question. First of all for Christoph, I want to better understand the movement into with higher they are doing at the speed at a conference a couple of weeks ago, there was increased interest by your customers, but for changes to the radical going to larger radical size. And I wanted to better understand how you see that evolving are impacting that book for highly with a radical changes, too, radical would cause a push out and tried to book 50 to one turnover.

謝謝你提出我的問題。首先，對於克里斯托夫來說，我想更好地了解他們在幾週前的一次會議上以更高的速度進行的運動，您的客戶的興趣增加了，但是對於激進的改變，轉向更大的激進尺寸。我想更了解您如何看待不斷發展對這本書的巨大影響，以及徹底的改變，激進的改變會導致推出並試圖以 50 比 1 的營業額預訂。

So I think the interest you said it is the freezing. And I think what you've seen at the conference is that the initial data that have been shared on a base amount, but also by some customers have been received very good because it shows a significant performance improvement when it comes to imaging and some good, very good cost support EGM, some of the layer for DRAM and logic interest is high. Indeed increasing the discussion on the on the two-inch reticle is a bit of a discussion about what else could we do in the future to further improve productivity of I&A first and potentially other tool.

所以我認為你說的興趣是凍結。我認為您在會議上看到的是，以基本數量共享的初始數據，而且一些客戶也收到了非常好的反饋，因為它在成像和一些良好的方面顯示出顯著的性能改進。的成本支持EGM，有些層對於DRAM和邏輯的興趣很高。事實上，增加對兩英寸標線的討論是關於我們將來還可以做些什麼來進一步提高 I&A 第一個工具和潛在的其他工具的生產力的討論。

So the conference you refer to as a bit of a technical conference. So people like to discuss basically what could come next very good engagement. This was assigned indeed, also the fact that more first up to count really on a into the future, that timeframe is not a whole aligned with the 5,000 or 52 hundred. So I think there's absolutely no connection between what we do design in what we may do in the future with the 12 inch as critical.

所以你所說的會議有點像是技術會議。所以人們基本上喜歡討論接下來會發生什麼，非常好的參與。這確實是被分配的，而且事實上，更多的人首先真正依賴未來，這個時間框架並不與 5,000 或 5200 完全一致。所以我認為我們所做的設計和我們未來可能做的事情之間絕對沒有任何联系，以 12 英寸為關鍵。

To give you an idea that discussion may come more concrete towards the end of the decade or the beginning of the next one. So it's really a long-term thing. Technical discussion. We have engaged with our customer, happy addition with them because this can provide a significant productivity implement for in a 44 we have in general, but that'll and therefore, this will in no way impact our current discussion and business online.

讓您知道討論可能會在本十年末或下一個十年開始時變得更加具體。所以這確實是一件長期的事。技術討論。我們已經與我們的客戶進行了接觸，很高興與他們合作，因為這可以為我們一般的 44 提供顯著的生產力工具，但這絕不會影響我們當前的線上討論和業務。

Okay. Thank you, Ken. And a quick follow-up for you. And Roger, Werner, we have internal capacity targets. And given the the updated 25 target, how do you see that the capacity targets that you've put out in 22 evolving? So where are we today with DUV and EUV manufacturing capacity and how you're managing the targets for additional capacity that you could put out back in 22?

好的。謝謝你，肯。並為您提供快速跟進。羅傑、維爾納，我們有內部能力目標。鑑於更新後的 25 個目標，您如何看待您在 22 個演進中提出的容量目標？那麼，我們目前的 DUV 和 EUV 製造能力處於什麼水準？

Yes. So you know, you realize today we have a lot of focus, of course, on 20 SEK25, which we say is that for next year with a slower recovery, the number of tools we will be head of shipping to our customer is multiple delays and what we expected. A pause in Capital Market Day 2022 a few months ago. Now what I've also said in introduction is when we look at the long term, when we listen to our peers are saying that the bullishness about the long-term opportunity of this market is strong. We share that, which means that at some point of time the need for more capacity will be there.

是的。所以你知道，你意識到今天我們有很多重點，當然，20 SEK25，我們說的是，明年隨著復甦速度較慢，我們將向客戶運送的工具數量會出現多次延遲以及我們的期望。幾個月前，2022 年資本市場日暫停。現在，我在介紹中也說過，當我們著眼於長期時，當我們聽到同行說對這個市場的長期機會的看漲情緒很強烈時。我們同意這一點，這意味著在某個時候將會需要更多的容量。

So what we do, we continue to execute on the long lead time item building, on the other hand, is a bit what we expected pro slowing divestments, so for material, et cetera. And we don't have to do that today. We will do that when we have, again, visibility for a larger demand. But the structure of our capability we want to still drive because I would say when the recovery, we'd take more time so happened if you believe on the long-term trajectory of the market, there's always a point where you have to deliver more tools and it would we want to be ready for that as well.

因此，我們所做的，我們繼續執行長交貨期項目的建設，另一方面，這有點像我們預期的那樣，會減緩撤資，所以對於材料等而言。今天我們不必這樣做。當我們再次看到更大的需求時，我們就會這樣做。但我們仍然希望推動我們的能力結構，因為我想說，當復甦時，我們需要更多時間，如果你相信市場的長期軌跡，那麼總會有一個點，你必須提供更多工具，我們也希望為此做好準備。

Thank you. And over to Sue, you assumed.

謝謝。接下來是蘇，你猜想。

Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

克里斯‧卡索，沃爾夫研究中心。

Yes. Thank you. Good morning. My first question, I'd like to dig into a little bit more of what more specifically may have changed over the last 90 days because some of the things you referred to in China on memory spending some logic spending that some of it, I think was sort of known 90 days ago in some maybe increment. So if I take these three on and some of the fab push-outs that has come about that, how would you characterize the change in your guys' guidance among those three areas? And basically what was newly as compared to when we had the last earnings call?

是的。謝謝。早安.我的第一個問題，我想更深入地了解過去 90 天內可能發生的更具體的變化，因為你提到的中國在內存支出方面的一些事情，我認為其中一些支出是邏輯支出90 天前就以某種程度的增量為人所知。因此，如果我考慮這三個方面以及由此產生的一些出色的退出，您將如何描述您的人員在這三個領域的指導的變化？與我們上次召開財報電話會議相比，基本上有哪些新變化？

Paul, I think for if you take the different the different pieces, I think when it comes to China and we already started to indicate in the last in the last call that over time, we do see China trending towards a more normalized percentage. I think the intensity of the discussions in the press, including discussions on export restrictions, I think has driven us to do more to more cautiousness when it comes to China. So that I think it is is really by developments in the past in the past couple of months.

保羅，我認為，如果你採取不同的方式，我想當談到中國時，我們已經開始在最後一次電話會議中表明，隨著時間的推移，我們確實看到中國的百分比趨於更加正常化。我認為媒體討論的激烈程度，包括有關出口限制的討論，促使我們在涉及中國問題時更加謹慎。所以我認為這確實是根據過去幾個月的發展而定的。

And I think when it comes to other to other customers on previous calls, we've indicated that, you know that there was uncertainty. And I think what we see to a large extent is that part of that uncertainty has really materialize. So what became a question? What was a question mark, maybe a number of quarters ago. It has now become quite clear that that that a certain level of demand from certain customers was in all likelihood not going to happen.

我認為，當談到之前的電話中的其他客戶時，我們已經表明，您知道存在不確定性。我認為我們在很大程度上看到的是，部分不確定性確實已經成為現實。那麼什麼成為一個問題呢？也許幾個季度前，這還是一個問號。現在已經非常清楚的是，某些客戶的某種程度的需求很可能不會發生。

So that was the reason why we decided to no longer holds a large window of 30 to $40 billion at the end in the world. And that as a result of that, we needed to reduce that window to the lower half. I think that's the that's Chris. I think the background of it, and that's what really changed. So it's the materialization of certain risks and uncertainties that we talked about before that have driven us to add to this lower expectation.

這就是為什麼我們決定在世界末日不再持有 300 至 400 億美元的大窗口的原因。因此，我們需要將該視窗縮小到下半部。我想那就是克里斯。我認為它的背景，這才是真正改變的地方。因此，正是我們之前討論過的某些風險和不確定性的具體化促使我們提高了這個較低的預期。

Got it. That's helpful. And just a follow on with your comments on China. There haven't been new export restrictions announced. So in terms of your comments, is that you're making some judgment on what you think some of those restrictions, how that may affect revenue and 25 prior to those being being fully implemented? And is that the correct interpretation?

知道了。這很有幫助。接下來談談你對中國的評論。目前尚未宣布新的出口限制。那麼，就您的評論而言，您是否正在對其中一些限制的看法做出一些判斷，這可能會如何影響收入，以及在完全實施之前的 25 個限制？這是正確的解釋嗎？

Yes, Chris, as you read newspapers and we see continued speculation on things that might happen as all of them that we've decided to take a more cautious caution that, that indeed has has resulted in one of the drivers. I mentioned the other driver as well. But the combination of China being with us eating less and less into the backlog of China and a speculation around more export control restriction that has led after the conclusion that it is prudent to go back to this 20% for China. As far as 20% of total business.

是的，克里斯，當你閱讀報紙時，我們看到對可能發生的事情的持續猜測，因為我們決定採取更加謹慎的謹慎態度，這確實導致了其中一名司機的死亡。我還提到了另一位司機。但中國與我們一起越來越少吃掉中國的積壓訂單，再加上圍繞更多出口管制限制的猜測，導致中國得出的結論是，回到20%是謹慎的。佔總業務的20%。

So thank you.

所以謝謝你。

Francois-Xavier Bouvignies, UBS.

布維尼 (Francois-Xavier Bouvignies)，瑞銀集團。

Thanks for letting me question in on the at the comment that you mentioned on the smartphone market and PCBs and you know, the market is a bit slower versus three months ago, the smartphone market and proceeding in it's a slower. But the magnitude of the revision of EUV of 50 is still quite big compared to, you know, the weakness of the markets.

感謝您讓我就您提到的智慧型手機市場和 PCB 的評論提出疑問，您知道，與三個月前相比，智慧型手機市場的市場發展速度要慢一些，而且其進展速度也較慢。但與市場的疲軟相比，EUV 50 的修正幅度仍然相當大。

And so I was just coming back and it seems to be really to customers that have been well in the price and having some issues would have thought that you would see some swap out in the orders of customers. Did you see any sign of like upside risk into some of this, you know, at least a bit offsetting interest related to this customer issues are easy in a down scenario. Customers give you some too optimistic forecast, you know, in light of a big shortage of EUV you had in recent years and therefore the swap out we'll we'll swap will take much longer than expected. I'm sorry for the wrong question. As usual?

所以我只是回來，這似乎確實對於價格合理的客戶來說，並且遇到一些問題會認為你會在客戶的訂單中看到一些交換。您是否看到其中一些類似上行風險的跡象，您知道，在經濟下行的情況下，至少可以輕鬆抵消與該客戶問題相關的一些利息。你知道，客戶給你的預測過於樂觀，因為近年來你的 EUV 嚴重短缺，因此我們將要更換的時間將比預期長得多。很抱歉問錯問題了。照常？

No, it's okay. A phosphate does a good question and execute touch again on the two drivers that we have seen changing over to him man expectation for next year. So the combination of the two again is important and not first one, I think you see yourself, as you mentioned, in recovery and mobile PC to be weaker than expected. Initially. This has an impact, I will say on on the capacity planning, but also mutation have kept capacity planning. So I think we used the word cautiousness a few times in the call when you become cautious. I see this means you are very careful on the short term, but also a bit on the midterm. So you have a bit of a double double hit if you want with the culture. So that's the first one.

不，沒關係。磷酸鹽提出了一個很好的問題，並再次對兩位車手進行了觸摸，我們已經看到他們明年對他的期望發生了變化。因此，兩者的結合再次很重要，而不是第一個，我認為正如您所提到的，您認為自己在復甦和移動 PC 方面弱於預期。最初。我會說這對容量規劃有影響，但也對容量規劃產生了影響。因此，我認為當您變得謹慎時，我們在電話中多次使用了“謹慎”這個詞。我認為這意味著您在短期方面非常謹慎，但在中期方面也有些謹慎。所以，如果你想適應這種文化，你就會有一點雙重打擊。這是第一個。

On the second one I see here. We also mentioned, you know, some upside on the eye because we still believe that the overall demand for those application is there continue to increase. So if we look at the server demand, we see there very nice a recovery. A lot of that has to do with AI application. So we thought upside, which also means that the overall dynamics of the market is still is still playing. And the you know, we we felt the need to provide an update for next year based on some of the development we are seeing in. I think in no way, we are also saying that there is a complete understanding of all the entire market will continue to play out in the next to the next few months. I think on the second question, I would say maybe this has not played out fully yet.

關於第二個，我在這裡看到。我們也提到，您知道，眼睛有一些好處，因為我們仍然相信對這些應用程式的整體需求會繼續增加。因此，如果我們看看伺服器需求，我們會發現恢復得非常好。這很大程度上與人工智慧的應用有關。所以我們認為上行，這也意味著市場的整體動力仍然還在發揮。你知道，我們認為有必要根據我們所看到的一些發展情況提供明年的更新。繼續發揮作用。我想關於第二個問題，我想說也許這還沒有完全發揮出來。

Okay, thank you. And you would expect to happen then, I guess to at some point, so happen.

好的，謝謝。你會期望那時會發生，我想在某個時候，會發生。

I think, you know if everyone and thanks a lot of I still believe in strong demand in the coming years. I think that demand has to be fulfilled. Therefore, you know, yes, I would say most of you will see some development also on that front in the coming in coming months.

我想，如果大家都知道，並且非常感謝，我仍然相信未來幾年會有強勁的需求。我認為這個需求必須被滿足。因此，你知道，是的，我想說，在接下來的幾個月裡，你們中的大多數人都會看到這方面的一些進展。

Okay. Thank you, Christophe. And maybe my follow-up would be on the I&A. I don't want to spoil the capital markets by better. You know, could you maybe give us an update on the on the I&A now, you know, in terms of user adoption, maybe logic memories, any anything happening here versus maybe three months ago months ago since Q2, faster wafers?

好的。謝謝你，克里斯托夫。也許我的後續行動是 I&A。我不想用更好的方式破壞資本市場。你知道，你能否給我們介紹一下I&A 的最新情況，你知道，在用戶採用方面，也許是邏輯存儲器，這裡發生的任何事情與三個月前第二季度以來發生的事情相比，更快的晶圓？

Few months ago that, you know, the period we are in the months, we are important for the data generation generating data to our customer, our customer that have placed many older already on a for R&D. And you know, when you did generate data, you have two options. The data are bad and customer a can of like it lays out all the data good and they like it more. And I think we are more in the second session today.

幾個月前，你知道，在這幾個月裡，我們對於數據產生非常重要，為我們的客戶產生數據，我們的客戶已經將許多老客戶放在研發上。你知道，當你產生數據時，你有兩個選擇。數據很糟糕，客戶很喜歡它列出了所有好的數據，他們更喜歡它。我認為我們今天的第二次會議的內容更多。

We continue to generate data. We're talking about 10,000 wafer expose this trade, basically the performance of the tool on logic memory. And all of that is helping our customers to, I would say, to make their plan of insertion and adoption a bit more concrete and start to very specific, Mike, Dan. So this is a bit where we are. We're very happy with the progress on a we are very happy with the performance. We are happy with the data and we'll continue the next few months to to work with our customer to translate basically goes into into real, I would say, plan in the manufacturing fabs.

我們繼續產生數據。我們談論的是 10,000 片晶圓暴露這項交易，基本上是邏輯記憶體上工具的效能。我想說，所有這些都在幫助我們的客戶使他們的插入和採用計劃更加具體，並開始非常具體，邁克，丹。這就是我們現在的情況。我們對進展感到非常滿意，我們對錶現也非常滿意。我們對這些數據感到滿意，我們將在接下來的幾個月裡繼續與我們的客戶合作，將基本上轉化為實際的，我想說的是，製造工廠的計劃。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Alexander Duval, Goldman Sachs.

亞歷山大杜瓦爾，高盛。

You may ask your question and I'm wondering if you could talk about what level of orders are unique in the coming quarters to hit the new midpoint of this? I think previously you talked about EUR6 billion of orders in the second half this year to hit the primary end point. And now we've obviously seen a 2.5 in the quarter, but a lower target we be thinking about this and to what degree. And is there some wiggle room in the first quarter given lead times are potentially to still get orders, which could benefit 22? First questions.

您可能會問您的問題，我想知道您是否可以談談未來幾季達到新中點的獨特訂單水平？我想您之前談到今年下半年的訂單量將達到 60 億歐元，以達到主要終點。現在我們顯然已經看到本季的 2.5，但我們正在考慮這個較低的目標以及達到什麼程度。考慮到交貨時間仍有可能獲得訂單，第一季是否還有一些迴旋餘地，這可能會使 22 受益？第一個問題。

Alexander. So you're right and say that in addition to what you observed in terms of the overall order intake, it's also clear that obviously there has been some push out into 2026. So that's also something that you should recognize, right? That orders that originally were provided to us is 2025 orders in the mix that was discussed have been shifted into the two beyond 2025. So that dynamic should also be that.

亞歷山大.所以你說的是對的，除了你觀察到的總訂單量之外，很明顯，顯然有一些訂單推遲到了 2026 年。最初提供給我們的訂單是 2025 年的訂單，我們討論的混合訂單已轉變為 2025 年之後的兩個訂單。

Or what we're looking at today, I would say, and I think were when it comes to the UV because obviously that that is relevant. I think in this conversation, I think DPV, given the significantly lower order lead times is less relevant here. But when it comes to EUV and at this stage, I think it's fair to say that were that were sort of fully booked for the for the low end of the guidance that we've that we've provided in order to get to the midpoint guidance. I would say that we need another, let's say, 2 billion in order to hit the midpoint of the guidance and of before the end of the year. So that too billing should then come in this quarter.

或者我們今天看到的，我想說，我認為是在紫外線方面，因為顯然這是相關的。我認為在這次對話中，考慮到訂單交付時間顯著降低，DPV 在這裡不太相關。但就 EUV 而言，在現階段，我認為可以公平地說，我們為達到中點而提供的指導的低端部分已經被預訂滿了指導。我想說的是，我們還需要 20 億美元，才能在年底前達到指導方針的中點。因此，該帳單也應該在本季進行。

And when it comes to flexibility and I think there is some flexibility. So to the extent that orders would come in Q1, I think we would still probably be able to in order to cater to the two-dose 2025, I think we build and sufficient flexibility to create it.

當談到靈活性時，我認為存在一定的靈活性。因此，就第一季的訂單而言，我認為我們仍然可能能夠滿足 2025 年兩劑疫苗的需求，我認為我們建立了足夠的靈活性來創建它。

Helpful. And maybe as a quick follow up on the investor questions about sort of lithography intensity in the context of areas ramping like advanced packaging, advanced deposition, for example, and degree, you see that as having a structural impact on litho intensity. And to what degree does that matter in 2026 and beyond and the assumption that the semis market continues to grow over time?

有幫助。也許作為對投資者關於先進封裝、先進沉積等領域中光刻強度的問題的快速跟進，您認為這對光刻強度具有結構性影響。假設半成品市場隨著時間的推移而持續成長，那麼這在 2026 年及以後有多重要？

Yes, sure. As it came in a few weeks from now, because those are more longer term consideration. So anything we discuss today, I think here is the New Wales kind of firm. Our six considerations to the whole discussion is really around the market dynamic. I think both questions are very good for our longer term opportunities, and we will be spending quite some time discussing that in the again in the November meeting together

是的，當然。因為它是在幾週後出現的，因為這些是更長期的考慮。所以我們今天討論的任何事情，我認為這裡都是新威爾斯類型的公司。我們整個討論的六個考慮因素實際上是圍繞市場動態的。我認為這兩個問題對於我們的長期機會都非常有好處，我們將在 11 月的會議上花相當多的時間討論這個問題

14, you'd ask me. Thanks.

14、你會問我。謝謝。

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on China. You mentioned that China is going to normalize from here because of different reasons. I quite understand that the 2020 level of Chinese business will be the new baseline of China, i.e., we should see another 20% or plants are decreased from here into 2020.

感謝您回答我的問題。第一個是關於中國的。你提到中國將從這裡開始正常化，原因有很多。我非常理解2020年中國業務的水平將是中國的新基線，即從現在到2020年我們應該會看到另外20%或工廠減少。

I think the 20% is what we consider to be a normal percentage of our business for China. We would assume that that that is not a number that's also on a go-forward basis, we believe would be realistic for China, of course, subject to it to anything related to export controls and what have you, which is beyond our control. But simply looking at the market, we believe that the China market structurally would be able to to to accommodate about 20% of our revenue estimate.

我認為 20% 是我們在中國業務中的正常比例。我們假設這不是一個未來的數字，我們相信這對中國來說是現實的，當然，這取決於與出口管制相關的任何事情，而這是我們無法控制的。但僅從市場來看，我們認為中國市場在結構上能夠滿足我們預期收入的 20% 左右。

And thank you. And a follow-up I had is on the and a two large customer, which pressure that order in this quarter. So in 2025 months on those two big customers, did you actually budgeted more trees in their mind estimate your 2025 revenue of basically you have taken the and that put us on this quarter come out with a 2025 number. So therefore, when they actually subject to further push out if they do another round in the next, let's say, two quarters.

謝謝你。我的後續行動是針對兩個大客戶，這給本季的訂單帶來了壓力。因此，在2025 年這兩個大客戶的幾個月裡，您實際上是否在他們的腦海中預算了更多的樹木，估計您2025 年的收入基本上已經採取了，這讓我們在本季度得出了2025 年的數字。因此，如果他們在下一輪（比方說兩個季度）進行另一輪比賽，他們實際上會受到進一步的淘汰。

Tammy, real quick to clarify. You said in 2025, we budgeted what was that?

塔米，很快就澄清了。你說2025年我們的預算是多少？

So basically, I set out when you're budgeting for 2025 revenue, when you gave this new guidance range at 32.5, did you actually budget additional cuts from the two big customers? Are you only risk elected that you have seen in this quarter?

所以基本上，我列出了當您為 2025 年收入製定預算時，當您給出 32.5 這個新的指導範圍時，您實際上是否為這兩個大客戶進行了額外的削減預算？您是本季看到的唯一風險選舉嗎？

We've essentially Tammy, we've essentially taken the latest view that we've developed with that with that customer. So you will appreciate with those customers. So you will agree. And by the way you talk about to customers, and I think it's important to customers, right, but better than what we've reflected in. What we have now is the status of the conversations with those. So with those sit with those customers and that's tough for us, and that's what is in here. But you will also appreciate that the closer you get to the year, the more firm and those will be on their on their demand. So I think what we're looking at for now, there's a pretty a pretty current and I would say, accurate view of those customers of what they need for next year as a as a baseline.

我們基本上是塔米，我們基本上採取了我們與該客戶一起開發的最新觀點。所以你會欣賞這些客戶。所以你會同意的。順便說一句，你與客戶談論的方式，我認為這對客戶很重要，對吧，但比我們所反映的要好。因此，對於那些與客戶坐在一起的人來說，這對我們來說很困難，這就是這裡的情況。但你也會意識到，越接近這一年，他們就越堅定，這些就會按照他們的要求進行。因此，我認為我們現在正在關注的是，有一個相當不錯的當前，我想說的是，對這些客戶明年的需求的準確了解作為基準。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Yes, good morning. Good afternoon and thank you for taking the questions. Question. I was trying to dig a little bit deeper into China. You are guiding to 20% of revenues, which basically suggests down 30% year on year. I'm curious, does that 20% reflect just normalization? Or are you taking certain actions in terms of anticipated regulatory pressure? And if so, what kind of dollar amount or percentage as reflected in or maybe more cautious behavior as opposed to a change in demand trends?

是的，早安。下午好，感謝您提出問題。問題。我試著更深入地了解中國。你的指導是收入的 20%，這基本上意味著年減 30%。我很好奇，這 20% 是否僅僅反映了正常化？或者您正在針對預期的監管壓力採取某些行動？如果是這樣，與需求趨勢的變化相比，反映的美元金額或百分比是多少，或者可能是更謹慎的行為？

I think CJ, SRS and cautious view is for the two reasons the cautious view as because we said before, we believe at a certain point in time, China will go into a more normalized level or not over-delivering on their on their backlog. That's one. And second, I said, given the discussions that we also read in the press, we become a bit more cautious due to dissect that is impossible to do. So. It's that combination that has given rise to our expectation of China being 20%, which is not too far away, indeed from your 30 some decline.

我認為 CJ、SRS 和謹慎觀點是出於兩個原因而謹慎觀點，因為我們之前說過，我們相信在某個時間點，中國將進入更正常化的水平，或者不會超額交付積壓的訂單。這是一個。其次，我說，考慮到我們也在媒體上讀到的討論，我們變得更加謹慎，因為剖析是不可能的。所以。正是這種組合導致我們對中國的預期為 20%，這與你們的 30% 的下降相距並不遙遠。

But I guess what I'm trying to come. So for a while, it's impossible. I mean, obviously, your vision for and demand and then you're taking a haircut to reflect maybe mortgages. And is there a way to understand that AerCap and

但我猜我想達到什麼目的。所以暫時來說，這是不可能的。我的意思是，顯然，你的願景和需求，然後你會進行剪髮以反映可能的抵押貸款。有沒有辦法理解 AerCap 和

it's related, CJ. So the two go hand in hand. So you cannot you cannot dissect that and I will not affect us.

這是相關的，CJ。所以兩者齊頭並進。所以你不能你不能剖析它，我不會影響我們。

So maybe I missed your question. Are, you know, two leading logic players are floundering, you really kind of have three big EV. customers and TSMC, Hynix Micron. I am just curious, as you think about kind of monopoly versus Monop sweeteners, are you thinking about changing your plan to prebuild? I would think that pricing power and pre-building don't don't go hand in hand. So we'd love to hear your kind of philosophy around that.

所以也許我錯過了你的問題。你知道，兩個領先的邏輯玩家正在苦苦掙扎，你真的擁有三個大的 EV。客戶和台積電、海力士美光。我只是很好奇，當你考慮壟斷與壟斷甜味劑時，你是否正在考慮改變你的預建計劃？我認為定價能力和預建並不是密不可分的。所以我們很想聽聽您對此的看法。

Well, I think you know, the one priority for us is to serve our customers, which means that whatever total demand, our customer will give us, we want to be able to honor that. And that's especially important to do that when you are the single supplier of. So I think that's a responsibility we have. Yes. I think the discussion on pre-build started when we saw a situation where we may not be able to meet the demand with the output of one year and then to be consistent with my previous point, rebuild in lower year is a way to do that.

嗯，我想你知道，我們的首要任務是服務我們的客戶，這意味著無論我們的客戶會為我們帶來什麼總需求，我們都希望能夠滿足這一點。當您是單一供應商時，做到這一點尤其重要。所以我認為這是我們的責任。是的。我認為關於預建的討論是在我們看到一年的產出可能無法滿足需求的情況時開始的，然後為了與我之前的觀點保持一致，在較低年份重建是一種方法。

So this means also that this a number of people tool will, of course, evolve with the market situation. And if we are in a situation where the market is low, we don't see the need to do that except a specific request of our customer better. What we have seen also in the past is that things tend to change and the mix between our customer is also evolving back and forth over time. So I think that's also something we keep him.

因此，這也意味著這個多人工具當然會隨著市場狀況而發展。如果我們處於市場低迷的情況下，除了客戶的具體要求外，我們認為沒有必要這樣做。我們過去也看到，事情往往會發生變化，我們的客戶之間的組合也會隨著時間的推移而不斷變化。所以我認為這也是我們留住他的原因。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sandeep Deshpande, JPMorgan.

桑迪普·德什潘德，摩根大通。

Hi, thanks for letting me on. I want to go back to what are the only game in terms of your guidance for next year. I mean, when we look at the numbers, it looks like your growth in the UV. outside China is going to be incredibly strong. I mean and also that I've looked at ASML for so many years. I mean, the view is that ASML, when you give one year guidance, you tend to be within that ballpark you down in that in those terms. I mean, how confident do you feel that that the we outside China is going to see significant next year, given that the way does tend to have shorter lead times than EUV? And I have one follow-up after that.

你好，謝謝你讓我上來。我想回到你們明年指導的唯一遊戲是什麼。我的意思是，當我們看這些數字時，它看起來就像你在紫外線下的成長。中國以外的市場將會非常強大。我的意思是，我已經研究 ASML 這麼多年了。我的意思是，ASML 的觀點是，當你給出一年的指導時，你往往會在這些方面處於下降的範圍內。我的意思是，考慮到這種方式的交貨時間往往比 EUV 更短，您對明年中國以外地區的發展有多大信心？之後我還有一個後續行動。

Yes. So as I may, well, you could have an incredible growth. As I mentioned before, I think you're looking for the nine part of the DPV business. We're looking at about similar growth as we see it for for EUV. So I'll leave it to you for your own imagination, how you quantify that. But it is the two things go hand in hand. We see quite a bit of DPV. demand also, particularly, I would say on the on the leading nodes. So therefore, I think assumptions on On and on a strong correlation between capacity build on the and capacity builds on the non-Chinese part of the deal. The I think that's it. That is a realistic or with a realistic assumption. So therefore, with that very strong correlation as we see every deal, that's the underpinning for that demand for that demand increase. Certainly, we believe this is robust.

是的。所以，正如我所願，你可能會有令人難以置信的成長。正如我之前提到的，我認為您正在尋找 DPV 業務的九個部分。我們正在尋找與 EUV 類似的成長。所以我會把它留給你自己想像，你如何量化它。但這是兩件事齊頭並進的。我們看到了相當多的 DPV。需求也特別重要，我想說的是在領先節點上。因此，我認為關於交易的產能建設和交易的非中國部分的產能建設之間存在著強烈相關性的假設。我想就是這樣。這是一個現實的或帶有現實的假設。因此，正如我們看到的每筆交易都具有非常強的相關性，這就是需求增加的基礎。當然，我們相信這是穩健的。

Andrew here. I mean, just I guess on the same question, I mean, in terms of your forecasting for 25, this is in line with how your forecast in prior years correctly, there's nothing different or do you think that this year a 25 looking magically different? And so you may have retained later or something like that?

安德魯在這裡。我的意思是，我想在同一個問題上，我的意思是，就您對25 的預測而言，這與您前幾年的預測一致，沒有什麼不同，或者您是否認為今年25 看起來神奇地不同？所以你可能後來保留了或類似的東西？

No, I think it's essentially it's essentially the same. You could argue, Sandy, there were a bit early and the reason there were a bit early as because we believe in the dynamics that Christophe talked about at the beginning, we believe that the second or the high end of the bandwidth is not realistically in Reach Based on what we know today. So that's there reason why we believe it was prudent to say we should be looking at the at the lower end, of course, in the next couple of months. We're going to once again, I talked to customers listen to their plans, et cetera, et cetera. But either way, we're looking at next year and the work that we've done on that is not dramatically different from what we've done in previous years.

不，我認為本質上是一樣的。你可能會說，桑迪，出現得有點早，之所以出現得有點早，是因為我們相信克里斯托夫一開始談到的動態，我們相信頻寬的第二端或高端並不現實。我們今天所知道的。因此，這就是為什麼我們認為謹慎地說我們應該在接下來的幾個月內關注低端市場的原因。我們將再次與客戶交談，聽取他們的計劃，等等。但無論哪種方式，我們都著眼於明年，我們在這方面所做的工作與前幾年所做的工作並沒有太大不同。

Okay, thanks. And one question is on high. Any hard, Christoph. I mean there have been public comments by one of your customers on high. Any clearly the data which has been on available at our conference at Pioneer seems to be pretty good. So my question is, are your top three customers all going to sign up for highly quickly? Obviously, some of them go to the delay like one of the DUV and we know the consequences of that. Of course.

好的，謝謝。還有一個問題是很高的。任何困難，克里斯托夫。我的意思是，你們的一位高層客戶已經發表了公開評論。顯然，我們在先鋒會議上提供的數據似乎相當不錯。所以我的問題是，您的前三位客戶都會很快註冊嗎？顯然，其中一些會像 DUV 一樣出現延誤，我們知道這樣做的後果。當然。

I think we've been consistent in the last few quarters mentioning that all our EUV customer has had order and INE. twos. All our unique have been engaged with us in the eye in a lab. So everyone is really using this time to collect the data. So the data you may have had a chance to see the one you referred to, I think are also looked at seen by all customers. I think the engagement to pay on a is really coming from all of our EUV a customer and the timing they have in mind for insert churn for adoption is still a pretty much in line with what we have discussed in the past. I think the the good data we have been able to generate on the very first tools are just if anything supporting that to that approach.

我認為我們在過去幾個季度一直一致提到我們所有的 EUV 客戶都有訂單和 INE。兩兩。我們所有的獨特之處都在實驗室裡與我們的眼睛接觸了。所以大家確實是利用這段時間來收集數據。因此，您可能有機會看到您提到的數據，我認為所有客戶也會看到這些數據。我認為支付費用的參與確實來自我們所有 EUV 客戶，他們所考慮的插入流失的採用時間仍然與我們過去討論的內容非常一致。我認為我們能夠在第一個工具上產生的良好數據只是支持方法的。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

All right. Well, we have time for one last question. If you are unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department.

好的。好吧，我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。如果您無法接通本次電話會議但仍有疑問，請隨時聯絡 ASML 投資者關係部門。

Now, operator, may we have the last caller, please?

現在，接線員，請接聽最後一位來電者嗎？

Adita Metuku, HSBC.

阿迪塔·梅圖庫，匯豐銀行。

Yes, good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. So firstly, just a clarification. If I heard you correctly, you said the competitive dynamics between the logic you pointed out earlier, you're saying that the problems that these some of these customers have led to downside risks crystallizing for 2025. But the upside haven't yet crystallized not yet in your assumptions for 2025, you sat right. Did I hear that correctly?

是的，下午好，感謝您回答我的問題。首先，澄清一下。如果我沒聽錯的話，你所說的是你之前指出的邏輯之間的競爭動態，你是說這些客戶中的一些問題導致下行風險在 2025 年具體化。對2025 年的假設是正確的。我沒聽錯嗎？

Well, I think I would say short answer is yes, it is, again why we refer to some upside on some part of the market.

嗯，我想我會說簡短的答案是肯定的，這也是為什麼我們提到市場某些部分有一些上漲的原因。

Got it. So essentially, you're saying you're priced and caution for China, even though the we have no clarity on export controls and and then there could be upside risk for some share shifts between like.

知道了。所以本質上，你是說你對中國定價和謹慎，儘管我們對出口管制尚不清楚，然後類似之間的一些份額轉移可能存在上行風險。