台積電 ADR (TSM) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 營收 402 億美元,季增 12%,達指引高標;毛利率 67.7%,季增 1.5 個百分點,EPS 27.25 元新台幣,ROE 45.9%
    • Q3 指引營收 446-458 億美元,季增約 12%,年增約 37%;毛利率預估 65-67%,主因 2 奈米量產稀釋毛利
    • 全年營收成長展望上修,預期 2026 年營收年增率將略高於 40%;盤後市場反應正面
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • AI、HPC 需求極為強勁,帶動先進製程(7 奈米以下)營收占比達 77%
      • 2 奈米技術快速量產,客戶高度興趣,推升未來數年成長動能
      • 美國、台灣、日本多地擴產,積極布局全球產能,滿足客戶長期需求
      • Agentic AI 興起,CPU 在 AI 資料中心角色提升,帶動更多矽含量需求
    • 風險:
      • 2 奈米及海外新廠初期量產將稀釋毛利率 3-4 個百分點
      • 消費性與價格敏感市場受零組件漲價及總體經濟不確定性影響,需求較弱
      • 匯率波動、通膨推升設備成本,對獲利與資本支出帶來不確定性
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 2 奈米:Q2 首度貢獻 3% 晶圓營收,快速放量中
    • 3 奈米、5 奈米、7 奈米:分別占 Q2 晶圓營收 30%、33%、11%
    • HPC 平台:Q2 營收季增 20%,占比 66%,為最大動能
    • 智慧型手機:Q2 營收季減 4%,占比 22%
    • IoT:Q2 營收季增 4%,占比 5%
    • 汽車:Q2 營收季增 15%,占比 4%
    • DCE:Q2 營收季增 5%,占比 1%
    • 先進製程(7 奈米及以下):Q2 營收占比 77%
  4. 財務預測
    • Q3 營收預估 446-458 億美元,季增約 12%,年增約 37%
    • Q3 毛利率預估 65-67%,主因 2 奈米量產稀釋
    • 2026 年 CapEx 預估 600-640 億美元,70-80% 用於先進製程,10% 用於特殊製程,10-20% 用於先進封裝、測試、光罩等
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 未來三年 CapEx 是否有具體展望?
      A: 沒有具體數字,但未來三年 CapEx 將顯著高於過去三年,且會隨 AI 長期趨勢持續提升。
    • Q: 美國亞利桑那州新增 1000 億美元投資時程?
      A: 時程取決於市場與客戶需求,預計將建設四座以上前後段廠房,會盡快推進。
    • Q: 如何看待競爭對手(如三星、Intel)與客戶分散風險?
      A: 競爭者有資金與政策支持,但關鍵仍在技術、製造與客戶信任,這是 TSMC 長期勝出的根本。
    • Q: AI 相關五年 CAGR 是否上修?
      A: AI 成長動能比先前預期更強,但不提供具體數字,只能說比原本預期更高。
    • Q: 先進封裝(如 EMIB-T)競爭是否影響前段晶圓業務?
      A: 前段與後段是不同領域,目前封裝產能仍短缺,競爭者加入反而有助於 TSMC 前段業務成長。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • (Spoken in Foreign Language)

    (以外語發言)

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's second-quarter 2026 earnings conference and conference call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

    各位下午好,歡迎參加台積電2026年第二季法說會暨電話會議。我是台積電投資人關係處處長蘇杰夫(Jeff Su),也是今天的主持人。

  • Today's event is being webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

    今天的活動將透過台積電網站www.tsmc.com進行即時網路直播,您也可於該網站下載財報新聞稿相關資料。若您是透過電話會議加入,您的撥入線路目前為僅收聽模式。

  • The format for today's event will be as follows. First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the second quarter 2026, followed by our guidance for the third quarter 2026. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then we will open both the floor and the line for the question-and-answer session.

    今天活動的流程如下。首先,台積電資深副總經理暨財務長黃仁昭先生將摘要說明我們2026年第二季的營運概況,並提供2026年第三季的展望指引。接著,黃先生將與台積電董事長暨總裁魏哲家博士共同說明公司的重點訊息。之後我們將開放現場與電話線上進行問答。

  • As usual, I'd like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ maturity from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears in our press release.

    依慣例提醒各位,今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述,該等陳述存在重大風險與不確定性,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所載內容有重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的「安全港」聲明。

  • And now, I would like to turn the microphone over to TSMC CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

    現在,我把麥克風交給台積電財務長黃仁昭先生,請他進行營運摘要與本季展望指引。

  • Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer / Spokesperson

    Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer / Spokesperson

  • Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today.

    謝謝Jeff。各位下午好。感謝各位今天的參與。

  • My presentation will start with financial highlights for the second quarter of 2026. After that, I will provide the guidance for the third quarter of 2026.

    我的簡報將先從2026年第二季的財務重點開始。接著,我將提供2026年第三季的展望指引。

  • [Second quarter revenue increased 12.0 percent sequentially in NT dollars, supported by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies. In US dollar terms, revenue also increased 12.0 percent sequentially to 40.2 billion, at the high-end of our second quarter guidance. Gross margin increased by 1.5 percentage points sequentially to 67.7%, primarily due to cost improvement efforts and a higher capacity utilization rate, partially offset by margin dilution from overseas fabs].

    [2026年第二季營收以新台幣計較前一季成長12.0%,主要受惠於先進製程技術的強勁需求。以美元計,營收亦較前一季成長12.0%至402億美元,達到我們第二季財測區間的高端。毛利率較前一季提升1.5個百分點至67.7%,主要來自成本改善努力與較高的產能利用率,部分被海外晶圓廠帶來的毛利稀釋所抵銷]。

  • [Total operating expenses accounted for 7.8% of net revenue, as compared to 8.3% in 1Q26, mainly due to operating leverage. Thus, operating margin increased by 2.2 percentage points sequentially to 60.3%. Total non-operating items were a gain of 96 billion NT dollars, an increase of 67 billion sequentially. The increase was mainly due to disposal and mark-to-market gains of 63 billion on Vanguard shares, which contributed 2.24 NT dollars to second-quarter EPS. Overall, our second quarter EPS was 27.25 NT dollars, and ROE was 45.9%]. (added by company after the call)

    [營業費用占淨營收比重為7.8%,相較於2026年第一季的8.3%,主要受惠於營運槓桿。因此,營業利益率較前一季提升2.2個百分點至60.3%。非營業項目合計為收益新台幣960億元,較前一季增加新台幣670億元。增加主要來自處分及按市價評價之Vanguard(世界先進)持股利益新台幣630億元,對第二季每股盈餘貢獻新台幣2.24元。整體而言,第二季每股盈餘為新台幣27.25元,股東權益報酬率(ROE)為45.9%]。(公司於會後補充)

  • Now let's move on to revenue by technology.

    接下來我們看依技術別的營收。

  • 2-nanometer process technology contributed 3% of wafer revenue in the second quarter. 3-nanometer, 5-nanometer, and 7-nanometer accounted for 30%, 33%, and 11%, respectively. Advanced technology, defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 77% of wafer revenue.

    2奈米製程技術在第二季貢獻晶圓營收的3%。3奈米、5奈米與7奈米分別占30%、33%與11%。先進技術(定義為7奈米及以下)占晶圓營收的77%。

  • Moving on to revenue contribution by platform.

    接下來看依平台別的營收貢獻。

  • HPC increased 20% quarter over quarter to account for 66% of our second-quarter revenue. Smartphone decreased 4% to account for 22%. IoT increased 4% to account for 5%. Automotive increased 15% to account for 4%. DCE increased 5% to account for 1%.

    HPC(高效能運算)較前一季成長20%,占第二季營收的66%。智慧型手機下降4%,占22%。IoT(物聯網)成長4%,占5%。車用成長15%,占4%。DCE成長5%,占1%。

  • Moving on to the balance sheet, we ended the second quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD3.5 trillion or USD110 billion. On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD144 billion quarter over quarter, mainly due to the increase of TWD58 billion in accounts payable and the increase of TWD48 billion in accrued liabilities and others.

    接著看資產負債表,我們在第二季結束時的現金及有價證券為新台幣3.5兆元,或1,100億美元。在負債端,流動負債較前一季增加新台幣1,440億元,主要因應付帳款增加新台幣580億元,以及應計負債及其他增加新台幣480億元。

  • In terms of financial ratios, accounts receivable days increased by 3 days to 29 days. Inventory days increased 7 days to 87 days, primarily due to the ramp of N2 technology.

    在財務比率方面,應收帳款週轉天數增加3天至29天。存貨週轉天數增加7天至87天,主要因2奈米(N2)技術爬坡所致。

  • Regarding cash flow and CapEx. During the second quarter, we generated about TWD783 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD496 billion in CapEx, and distributed TWD156 billion for third quarter 2025 cash dividend. Overall, our cash balance increased TWD99 billion to TWD3.1 trillion at the end of the quarter.

    關於現金流量與資本支出。第二季我們由營運活動產生約新台幣7,830億元現金流入,資本支出為新台幣4,960億元,並發放新台幣1,560億元作為2025年第三季現金股利。整體而言,本季末現金餘額增加新台幣990億元至新台幣3.1兆元。

  • In US dollar terms, our second quarter capital expenditures totaled USD15.7 billion.

    以美元計,第二季資本支出合計為157億美元。

  • I finished my financial summary. Now let's turn to the current quarter guidance.

    以上是我的財務摘要。接下來我們看本季展望指引。

  • Based on the current business outlook, we expect our third-quarter revenue to be between USD44.6 billion and USD45.8 billion, which represents a 12% sequential increase or a 37% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD1 to TWD32, gross margin is expected to be between 65% and 67%, operating margin between 56% and 58%.

    根據目前的業務展望,我們預期第三季營收將介於446億美元至458億美元之間,以中位數計較前一季成長12%,較去年同期成長37%。在匯率假設1美元兌新台幣32元下,預期毛利率介於65%至67%,營業利益率介於56%至58%。

  • This concludes my financial presentation.

    我的財務簡報到此結束。

  • Now let me turn to our key messages.

    接下來我來談我們的重點訊息。

  • I will start by talking about our second-quarter '26 and third-quarter '26 profitability.

    我將先談2026年第二季與2026年第三季的獲利表現。

  • Compared to the first quarter, our second quarter gross margin increased by 150 basis points sequentially to 67.7%, slightly ahead of our guidance, primarily due to cost improvement efforts and a slightly higher overall capacity utilization rate, partially offset by dilution from our overseas fabs. We have just guided our third quarter gross margin to decrease by 1.7 percentage point to 66% at the midpoint, primarily as we expect the steep ramp-up of our 2-nanometer technology to dilute our gross margin by about 3 to 4 percentage points. This dilution is expected to be partially offset by very strong demand for our leading-edge technologies and continued cost improvement efforts, including productivity gains and across-node capacity optimization.

    相較第一季,第二季毛利率較前一季提升150個基點至67.7%,略優於我們的指引,主要來自成本改善努力與整體產能利用率略為提高,部分被海外晶圓廠帶來的稀釋所抵銷。我們剛剛給出的第三季毛利率指引,以中位數計將下降1.7個百分點至66%,主要因我們預期2奈米技術的快速爬坡將使毛利率稀釋約3到4個百分點。此稀釋預期將部分被先進製程技術的非常強勁需求,以及持續的成本改善努力所抵銷,包括生產力提升與跨製程節點的產能最佳化。

  • Looking at the second-half of the year, given the six factors that determine our profitability, there are a few puts and takes that I would like to share.

    展望下半年,考量決定我們獲利能力的六項因素,我想分享幾個利多與利空的拉鋸。

  • First, we expect a steep ramp-up of our 2-nanometer to dilute our gross margin by about 3 to 4 percentage points in the second half of the year. Furthermore, as the scale of our overseas expansion grows, we continue to forecast the gross margin dilution from the ramp-up of overseas fabs in the next several years to be 2% to 3% in the early stages and widen to 3% to 4% in the latter stages. On the other hand, demand for our leading-edge technologies is very strong.

    第一,我們預期2奈米的快速爬坡將在下半年使毛利率稀釋約3到4個百分點。此外,隨著海外擴張規模持續擴大,我們仍預估未來數年海外晶圓廠爬坡對毛利率的稀釋,在初期約為2%到3%,在後期將擴大至3%到4%。另一方面,我們先進製程技術的需求非常強勁。

  • In addition, we continue to leverage our manufacturing excellence to generate more wafer output and drive greater across-node capacity optimization in our fab operations to support our profitability. Finally, we have no control over the foreign exchange rate, but that may be another factor.

    此外,我們持續運用製造卓越能力以提升晶圓產出,並在晶圓廠營運中推動更高程度的跨製程節點產能最佳化,以支撐我們的獲利能力。最後,外匯匯率並非我們所能控制,但也可能是另一項影響因素。

  • Next, let me talk about our 2026 capital budget.

    接下來,讓我談談我們2026年的資本預算。

  • At TSMC, a higher level of capital expenditures is always correlated to higher growth opportunities in following years. With our strong technology leadership and differentiation, we are well positioned to capture the multi-year structural demand from the industry megatrends of 5G, AI, and HPC.

    在台積電,較高水準的資本支出一向與未來幾年的較高成長機會呈正相關。憑藉我們強勁的技術領先與差異化優勢,我們已具備良好條件,掌握來自5G、AI與HPC等產業巨型趨勢所帶動的多年期結構性需求。

  • Given the continued strong structural demand from our customers, including the newly emerging agentic AI market, we have decided to raise our full-year 2026 capital budget to be between USD60 billion and USD64 billion as we continue to invest heavily to support our customers' growth.

    鑑於客戶持續強勁的結構性需求(包括新興的代理式AI市場),我們決定將2026年全年資本預算上調至600億至640億美元之間,並持續加大投資以支持客戶的成長。

  • We always collaborate closely with the tool suppliers well in advance to prepare the capacity, whether it is a strong upcycle or downcycle, just like our customers collaborate with us well in advance to plan our capacity. Thus, we do not foresee any bottlenecks to our capacity expansion plans.

    我們一向會提前很久就與設備供應商密切合作,為產能做好準備,不論景氣處於強勁上行或下行循環;正如我們的客戶也會提前與我們合作規劃產能一樣。因此,我們不預期產能擴充計畫會出現任何瓶頸。

  • About 70% to 80% of the 2026 capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, about 10% will be spent for specialty technologies, and about 10% to 20% will be spent for advanced packaging, testing, mask making and others.

    2026年資本預算約有70%至80%將配置於先進製程技術,約10%用於特殊製程技術,另約10%至20%將用於先進封裝、測試、光罩製作及其他項目。

  • Even as we invest for the future growth with this level of CapEx spending in 2026, we remain committed to delivering profitable growth to our shareholders. We also remain committed to a sustainable and steadily increasing cash dividend per share on both an annual and quarterly basis.

    即使我們在2026年以此等資本支出水準投資未來成長,我們仍致力於為股東帶來獲利性成長。我們也持續承諾在年度與季度層面,提供可持續且穩定增加的每股現金股利。

  • In 2025, we paid TWD467 billion in cash dividends, up 28.6% year over year as TSMC shareholders receive a total of TWD18 cash dividend per share. In 2026, they will receive TWD24 per share, up another 33% year over year, and we expect a continued and increasing cash dividends per share in 2027 as well.

    2025年,我們發放現金股利新台幣4,670億元,年增28.6%,台積電股東合計每股領取新台幣18元現金股利。2026年,股東將每股領取新台幣24元,年增再達33%,我們也預期2027年每股現金股利將持續增加。

  • Now let me turn the microphone over to C.C.

    現在我把麥克風交給C.C.。

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝你,Wendell。各位下午好。

  • First, let me start with our near-term demand outlook. We concluded our second quarter with revenue of USD40.2 billion, at the high end of our guidance in US dollar terms, driven by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies.

    首先,讓我從近期需求展望談起。我們第二季營收為402億美元,以美元計達到財測區間的高端,主要受惠於對我們領先製程技術的強勁需求。

  • Moving into third quarter, we expect our business to be supported by continuous strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies, including the steep ramp up of our 2-nanometer technology. Looking ahead, we observe consumer and the price-sensitive end-market segment are being challenged due to the impact of rising component prices and macroeconomics uncertainties. As such, we are being prudent in our business planning while focusing on our fundamentals of our business to further strengthen our competitive position.

    進入第三季,我們預期業務將持續受到對領先製程技術的強勁需求所支撐,其中包括我們2奈米技術的快速放量爬坡。展望未來,我們觀察到消費性以及對價格敏感的終端市場區隔,因零組件價格上漲與總體經濟不確定性影響而面臨挑戰。因此,我們在業務規劃上保持審慎,同時聚焦於業務基本面,以進一步強化我們的競爭地位。

  • Having said that, AI-related demand continues to be extremely robust. The AI megatrend continues to drive the need for more and more computation, which supports the robust demand for leading-edge silicon. Our customers and customers' customers, who are mainly the cloud service provider, continue to provide us with their very strong signal and positive outlook. Thus, our conviction in the multi-year AI megatrend remain very high. Supported by our robust technology differentiation and the broad customer base, we now expect our full-year 2026 revenue growth to be slightly above 40% year over year in US dollar terms.

    話雖如此,AI相關需求仍然極為強勁。AI這一巨型趨勢持續推動對更多、更大量運算的需求,進而支撐對領先矽晶的強勁需求。我們的客戶以及客戶的客戶(主要為雲端服務供應商)持續向我們釋出非常強烈的訊號與正向展望。因此,我們對多年期AI巨型趨勢的信心仍然非常高。在我們強勁的技術差異化與廣泛客戶基礎支持下,我們目前預期2026年全年營收(以美元計)年增將略高於40%。

  • Now let me talk about the acceleration of agentic AI.

    接下來,讓我談談代理式AI的加速發展。

  • The AI market continues to be very dynamic. The emergence of agentic AI is leading to a resurgence in the role of CPUs in AI data centers, which drives more silicon demand in addition to AI accelerators. We believe this is positive for TSMC, as no matter what CPU approach is taken, whether it's x86, ARM-based, or RISC-V architecture, they are almost all TSMC's customers. We are already collaborating closely with our CPU customers and working to support them with the most advanced technologies and necessary capacity, so they can capture agentic AI market opportunities.

    AI市場持續非常動態。代理式AI的興起,使CPU在AI資料中心中的角色再度受到重視,除了AI加速器之外,也帶動更多的矽晶需求。我們認為這對台積電是正面的,因為不論採用何種CPU路線,無論是x86、ARM架構或RISC-V架構,幾乎都是台積電的客戶。我們已經與CPU客戶密切合作,並致力以最先進的技術與必要的產能支持他們,以掌握代理式AI的市場機會。

  • Next, let me talk about TSMC's capacity expansion strategies.

    接下來,讓我談談台積電的產能擴充策略。

  • To address the structural increase in overall long-term semiconductor market demand profile, TSMC collaborates closely with our customers and our customers' customers to plan our capacity. Given the fundamental complexity of leading-edge technologies and the design-in and lead time involved, we also have a very good idea of their multi-year product roadmap and production plans.

    為因應整體半導體市場長期需求結構性上升的趨勢,台積電與客戶以及客戶的客戶密切合作來規劃產能。鑑於領先技術的根本複雜性,以及設計導入與前置時間的需求,我們也能相當清楚掌握其多年期產品藍圖與生產計畫。

  • This is important because it takes more than five years to develop the technology and product, prepare the capacity, and ramp it up to high-volume production. Internally, TSMC employs a disciplined capacity planning system to assess the market demand from both a top-down and bottom-up approach. This is a continuous and ongoing process. Based on our assessment, we are stepping up our CapEx investment to increase our capacity to support our customers' future growth.

    這點很重要,因為從技術與產品開發、產能準備,到爬坡至高量產,往往需要超過五年的時間。在內部,台積電採用嚴謹的產能規劃系統,以自上而下與自下而上的方式評估市場需求。這是一個持續且不間斷的流程。基於我們的評估,我們正加大資本支出投資,以提升產能來支持客戶未來的成長。

  • Now, with a strong collaboration and support from our leading US customers and the US federal, state, and city governments, we would like to announce an additional USD100 billion investment in Arizona. This is to build several more semiconductor logic wafer fabs for 2-nanometer and below technologies, as well as advanced packaging fabs, to support strong multi-year demand from our leading US Customers. We believe this investment will help to further foster the development of the US semiconductor ecosystem, strengthen the supply chain, and support an increasing number of high-tech, high-paying jobs in the United States.

    現在,在我們美國主要客戶的強力合作與支持,以及美國聯邦、州與市政府的支持下,我們宣布在亞利桑那州追加1,000億美元投資。此投資將用於興建數座採用2奈米及以下技術的半導體邏輯晶圓廠,以及先進封裝廠,以支持我們美國主要客戶多年期的強勁需求。我們相信,這項投資將有助於進一步促進美國半導體生態系的發展、強化供應鏈,並在美國支持更多高科技、高薪的就業機會。

  • At the same time, we are building 13 leading-edge and advanced packaging fabs in Taiwan over the next several years, and we will continue to further invest in Taiwan. Therefore, TSMC's semiconductor technology and manufacturing will continue to play a pivotal role in supporting the global semiconductor industry, while unleashing our customers' innovation.

    同時,我們也將在未來幾年於台灣興建13座領先製程與先進封裝廠,並將持續加碼投資台灣。因此,台積電的半導體技術與製造將持續在支持全球半導體產業方面扮演關鍵角色,同時釋放客戶的創新動能。

  • Now let me talk about the current N3 capacity expansion.

    接下來,讓我談談目前N3產能擴充的進展。

  • We are executing well on our global plan to add three additional 3-nanometer fabs, one in Taiwan, one in Arizona, and one in Japan, to support the robust multi-year pipeline of demand for 3-nanometer technologies. In addition to all the new fabs, we continue to convert 5-nanometer tools to support 3-nanometer capacity in Taiwan. We are also leveraging our manufacturing excellence to drive greater productivity across our fab in all locations to generate more wafer output. We are also focusing on capacity optimization across nodes, which includes flexible capacity support among N7, N5, and N3 nodes. In summary, we are using multiple levers to do everything we can, wherever we can, however we can, to maximize the support to all our customers.

    我們正順利執行全球計畫,新增三座3奈米晶圓廠,分別位於台灣、亞利桑那州與日本,以支持3奈米技術多年期強勁的需求管線。除了所有新廠之外,我們也持續在台灣將5奈米設備轉換以支援3奈米產能。我們亦運用卓越的製造能力,推動各地晶圓廠提升生產力,以產出更多晶圓。我們也聚焦於跨節點的產能最佳化,包括在N7、N5與N3節點之間提供彈性產能支援。總結而言,我們正運用多種槓桿,竭盡所能、在任何可行之處、以任何可行方式,最大化對所有客戶的支援。

  • Now, let me talk about our mature node strategies.

    接下來,讓我談談我們的成熟製程策略。

  • TSMC's strategy at mature node has not changed. Our first priority is to fully support our customers, and now we continue to increase, not decrease, our mature node capacity in the higher value-added segment. For example, we are increasing our mature node capacity through JASM Fab 1 in Japan, for CMOS Image Sensor application, and ESMC in Germany for automotive and industrial applications. In today's market, outside of specific areas such as power management IC and CMOS image sensor, the mature node demand in other commodity areas is not that strong. Thus, TSMC will continue to focus on the higher value-added and strategic segments, while ensuring we have the necessary capacity to support our customers' growth.

    台積電在成熟製程的策略並未改變。我們的首要任務是全力支持客戶,而目前我們在較高附加價值的領域,持續增加而非減少成熟製程產能。例如,我們透過日本的JASM Fab 1擴增成熟製程產能以支援CMOS影像感測器應用,並透過德國的ESMC支援車用與工業應用。在當前市場中,除電源管理IC與CMOS影像感測器等特定領域外,其他大宗領域的成熟製程需求並不強勁。因此,台積電將持續聚焦於較高附加價值與策略性區隔,同時確保具備必要產能以支持客戶成長。

  • Finally, let me talk about our A14 status.

    最後,讓我談談我們的 A14 狀態。

  • As I mentioned a few minutes ago, the complexity of leading-edge technology continues to increase. The lead time to develop a new technology such as A14, building the capacity, and then ramp it up now takes five to seven years. There are no shortcuts. Our A14 technology represents the second generation of nanosheet transistors and delivers another full-node stride from N2, with performance and power benefits to address the insensible need for high-performance and energy-efficient computing. Compared with N2, A14 will provide a 10 to 15% speed improvement at the same power or 25 to 30% power improvement at the same speed, and close to 20% chip density gain. A14 technology development is on track and progressing well. Internal product-like vehicle demonstrated close to 90% device performance and close to 90% 256 megabits SRAM yield. We are observing a strong level of customer interest and engagement on both smartphone and HPC/AI applications, and customer new tap-out activity is ongoing and ahead of schedule. Risk production will start in 2027 and volume production is scheduled for 2028. With our strategy of continuous enhancement, we also introduced A13 and A12 as extension of the A14 family. A13 represents a further advancement of our A14, achieving an over 6% die area saving through an innovative 97% optical shrink. Through continuous design-technology co-optimization, A13 also delivers further performance and power efficiency improvement. A13 design rules are backward compatible with A14 to ensure smooth IP migration.

    如同我在幾分鐘前提到的,先進技術的複雜度持續提高。像 A14 這樣的新技術,從研發、建置產能到量產爬坡,現在需要五到七年的前置時間。沒有捷徑。我們的 A14 技術代表第二代奈米片(nanosheet)電晶體,並在 N2 的基礎上再向前跨越完整一個節點,帶來效能與功耗優勢,以滿足對高效能與高能源效率運算的迫切需求。相較於 N2,A14 在相同功耗下可提供 10% 到 15% 的速度提升,或在相同速度下可提供 25% 到 30% 的功耗改善,且晶片密度提升接近 20%。A14 技術開發進度如期,且進展良好。內部類產品驗證載具已展示接近 90% 的元件效能,以及接近 90% 的 256Mb SRAM 良率。我們觀察到客戶在智慧型手機與 HPC/AI 應用上都有強烈的興趣與投入,客戶新的 tape-out 活動也持續進行,且進度超前。風險試產將於 2027 年開始,量產預計於 2028 年。依循我們持續強化的策略,我們也推出 A13 與 A12,作為 A14 家族的延伸。A13 代表在 A14 基礎上的進一步提升,透過創新的 97% 光學縮小(optical shrink),實現超過 6% 的晶粒面積節省。透過持續的設計—技術協同最佳化,A13 也帶來進一步的效能與能效提升。A13 的設計規則與 A14 向下相容,以確保 IP 平順移轉。

  • We also introduced A12, which will bring our innovative Super Power Rail technology to the A14 platform for superior performance, power, and area benefits. Both A13 and A12 are scheduled for volume production in 2029. We believe A14 and its derivative technologies will propel our A14 firmly to be an even larger and long-lasting node for TSMC than N2, just like a 2-nanometer technology is a larger and longer-lasting node than 3-nanometer, and help further extend our technology leadership position well into the future.

    我們也推出 A12,將把我們創新的 Super Power Rail 技術導入 A14 平台,以帶來更優異的效能、功耗與面積效益。A13 與 A12 均預計於 2029 年量產。我們相信 A14 及其衍生技術將推動 A14 成為比 N2 更大、且生命週期更長的節點,就如同 2 奈米技術相較 3 奈米是一個更大且更長壽的節點,並有助於在未來進一步延伸我們的技術領先地位。

  • This concludes our key messages, and thank you for your attention.

    以上為我們的重點訊息,感謝各位的聆聽。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, C.C. So this does conclude our prepared statements.

    謝謝你,C.C.。那麼,我們的事先準備發言到此結束。

  • (Event Instructions)

    (活動說明)

  • Sunny Lin, UBS.

    UBS 的 Sunny Lin。

  • Sunny Lin - Analyst

    Sunny Lin - Analyst

  • Congrats on the very strong performance and outlook.

    恭喜你們有非常強勁的表現與展望。

  • So number one, I'll do a double-click on the CapEx. So very encouraging CapEx outlook, and I do think it's essential that TSMC showcase a stronger determination in capacity expansion, given the stronger demand and the very tight supply. And so beyond 2026, I think every large client also wonder how aggressive TSMC is planning for CapEx. And so back in the COVID super cycle, TSMC did provide a three-year CapEx outlook by then. And so I wonder at this point, would it be possible for you to share any color, maybe for the coming three years CapEx?

    第一個問題,我想更深入追問資本支出(CapEx)。你們的 CapEx 展望非常令人鼓舞,我也認為在需求更強、供給非常吃緊的情況下,台積電展現更強的擴產決心是必要的。因此在 2026 年之後,我想每一家大型客戶也都想知道台積電在 CapEx 規劃上會有多積極。回到 COVID 超級循環期間,台積電當時曾提供三年的 CapEx 展望。所以我想請問,現階段你們是否可能分享一些方向,例如未來三年的 CapEx?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Sunny's first question is regarding CapEx. She does believe it's important/essential to show our determination to support our customers with these large CapEx investments. So she wants to know, do we have a three-year CapEx guidance, '26, '27, '28, similar to what we did back in 2021?

    好的。Sunny 的第一個問題是關於 CapEx。她認為,透過這些大額 CapEx 投資來支持客戶,展現我們的決心非常重要/必要。所以她想了解,我們是否有像 2021 年那樣,提供 2026、2027、2028 三年的 CapEx 指引?

  • Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer / Spokesperson

    Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer / Spokesperson

  • Hey, Sunny, we do not have a number to share with you. But as you know, we invest CapEx this year for the future business opportunity and as long as there are business opportunities, we will not hesitate to invest. As you can hear from our prepared remarks that our conviction in the megatrend, AI megatrend multi-year is very strong, and we are stepping up the CapEx, including increasing this year's CapEx.

    Sunny,我們目前沒有數字可以對外分享。但如你所知,我們今年的 CapEx 投資是為了未來的商機;只要有商機,我們就不會猶豫投資。你也可以從我們的準備發言中聽到,我們對 AI 這個多年期的巨型趨勢(megatrend)的信念非常強,因此我們正在提高 CapEx,包括增加今年的 CapEx。

  • Last time, we said our CapEx in the next three years will be significantly higher than the CapEx in the past three years. Now the CapEx in the next three years will be even more significantly higher than the past three years.

    上一次我們說,未來三年的 CapEx 將顯著高於過去三年。現在,未來三年的 CapEx 將比過去三年更為顯著地提高。

  • Sunny Lin - Analyst

    Sunny Lin - Analyst

  • Yeah, maybe let me follow-up on CapEx from another -- yeah, sure. So you just announced additional USD100 billion CapEx in the US, and I think that's pretty important for you to secure the business in the US as well. And so now with total USD265 billion CapEx in Arizona, what's your current plan to bring on the capacities in Arizona in the coming few years?

    是的,那我從另一個角度追問 CapEx——好的。你們剛宣布在美國額外增加 1,000 億美元的 CapEx,我認為這對你們在美國也能確保業務非常重要。那麼在亞利桑那州總投資達到 2,650 億美元之後,你們目前在未來幾年於亞利桑那州導入產能的規劃是什麼?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, so Sunny's second question is on to C.C. said investing an additional USD100 billion in Arizona based on the strong demand from our customers. So the total investment now is USD265 billion. What is the schedule, time frame, or the plan for these investment? Is that correct, Sunny?

    好的,Sunny 的第二個問題是:C.C. 提到基於客戶強勁需求,在亞利桑那州額外投資 1,000 億美元。因此目前總投資為 2,650 億美元。這些投資的時程、時間範圍或規劃是什麼?Sunny,我理解正確嗎?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Sunny, the schedule will depend on the market situation, you know that. So today's situation. The makeup trend is so strong so that we announce additional USD100 billion investment in Arizona.

    Sunny,時程會取決於市場狀況,你也知道的。以今天的情況來看。這個巨型趨勢非常強勁,所以我們宣布在亞利桑那州額外投資 1,000 億美元。

  • How many fabs? Many.

    會有多少座晶圓廠?很多。

  • So actually, let me say that there's probably additional four or more fabs will be built.

    其實,我可以說大概還會再建四座或更多的廠。

  • Sunny Lin - Analyst

    Sunny Lin - Analyst

  • And that's combining frontend backend.

    而且會包含前段與後段。

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Charlie Chan, Morgan Stanley.

    Morgan Stanley 的 Charlie Chan。

  • Charlie Chan - Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Analyst

  • So first of all, so congrats for a very strong outlook.

    首先,恭喜你們有非常強勁的展望。

  • My first question is really about the foundry competition. I understand that there's no shortcut for a newcomer like TeraFab, but how about like Samsung Foundry, right? They got a huge profit from memory business. Intel got a US policy support. So I'm not sure how TSMC is going to address those competition because apparently several US companies are engaging with those industry peers.

    我的第一個問題主要是關於晶圓代工的競爭。我理解像 TeraFab 這樣的新進者沒有捷徑可走,但像三星晶圓代工呢,對吧?他們從記憶體業務賺到很高的利潤。Intel 則有美國政策支持。所以我不太確定台積電要如何因應這些競爭,因為顯然有幾家美國公司正在與這些同業接觸。

  • And recently, actually yesterday, ASML just announced to expand the EUV capacity for 2028. Would TSMC worry that your competitors to take more slots and build a large capacity in the future to compete with your leading edge business?

    另外,最近其實就在昨天,ASML 剛宣布擴增 2028 年的 EUV 產能。台積電會不會擔心競爭對手拿到更多機台名額,並在未來建立更大的產能來與你們的先進製程業務競爭?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, so Charlie's question is competition from two angles. One, he does note, C.C. said, foundry competition, no shortcuts, but he says, according to the news, many of our customers are engaging with our foundry competitors. One of them in Korea is making huge amounts of money these days. Another one may have the US Government policy support. So the first part of this question, how do we see the competition and threat of customers moving to our competitors, number one?

    好的,Charlie 的問題從兩個角度談競爭。第一,他注意到 C.C. 說晶圓代工競爭沒有捷徑,但他提到依新聞報導,我們許多客戶正在與我們的晶圓代工競爭對手接觸。其中一家在韓國的公司最近賺了很多錢。另一家可能有美國政府政策支持。所以第一部分問題是:我們如何看待競爭,以及客戶轉向競爭對手的威脅?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, let me say that. Yes, one of my competitors in South Korea, they make a huge amount of money. And I'm jealous about it. And then the other one in the US, they got the very strong US Government support. We also got the government support, by the way, although we don't announce it. However, let me share with you, as we said, there is no shortcut.

    我這樣說吧。是的,我在南韓的一位競爭對手,他們賺了非常多錢。我也很羨慕。而另一家在美國的,他們得到非常強的美國政府支持。順帶一提,我們也有得到政府支持,雖然我們沒有對外宣布。不過我想跟各位分享的是,如同我們所說,沒有捷徑。

  • What does that mean? Meaning that in this semiconductor industry, you have to go back to fundamental. Governments are here is welcome. Really, we also appreciate that. A lot of money, of course, that's nice to have. But the most important thing, as we continue to say, is the technology, manufacturing, and customer trust. These three fundamentals never changed for my 30-some, 40-years career. It's always the most important thing. And that’s always TSMC's secret recipe to win the business.

    那是什麼意思?意思是,在這個半導體產業,你必須回到最基本的根本。政府的支持我們當然歡迎。真的,我們也很感謝。當然,有很多資金投入,這很好。但最重要的事情,正如我們一直在說的,是技術、製造,以及客戶信任。這三個基本面在我三十多年、四十年的職涯中從未改變。它永遠是最重要的事。而那也一直是台積電贏得業務的祕密配方。

  • So from the competition point of view, choosing a technology, ramping it up, it's not buying milk from 7-Eleven. Well, I'm using that, I'm quoting the sentence from my customer anyway. It says that you're choosing a kind of technology partner, it's no shortcut. You need to understand the technology. You need to really utilize it using the test chip and then something and work together and then prepare the capacity and ramp it up. That's what I say, it takes about five years.

    所以從競爭的角度來看,選擇一項技術、把它拉升量產,並不是像在 7-Eleven 買牛奶那麼簡單。我用這個比喻,其實是引用我客戶的一句話。它的意思是,你是在選擇一種技術夥伴,沒有捷徑可走。你需要理解這項技術。你需要真的用測試晶片等方式把它用起來,然後一起合作,接著準備產能並把它拉升。這就是我說的,大約需要五年。

  • It's not that today, you think this milk is better, you go to the next store, it's a 7-Eleven. You don't like it, you go to another store, no. So that's my answer.

    不是說今天你覺得這瓶牛奶比較好,就去下一家店——那是一家 7-Eleven。你不喜歡就再去另一家店,不是這樣的。所以這就是我的回答。

  • Charlie, is agree.

    查理,同意。

  • Charlie Chan - Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Analyst

  • Yeah, so hope you can buy more milk so other people cannot get it.

    對,所以希望你可以多買一些牛奶,讓其他人買不到。

  • Thank you. Yeah, so let me switch gears to a more exciting side. Just said, you see very strong signals from customers. You also revise of the full-year revenue guide. Are you ready to revise the five-year revenue CAGR, especially the AI semi CAGR? I remember it was like high 50%. But here comes the question, right, that agentic AI demand is so strong. CPU is a great opportunity for TSMC. But how about a kind of memory cost increase, right? It's kind of a big chunk of this kind of AI CapEx. So what's the update of the AI semi CAGR and how should we look at the contents of the AI semi related to TSMC's growth.

    謝謝。好,那我切換到一個更令人興奮的話題。你剛剛提到,從客戶端看到非常強的訊號。你們也上修了全年營收指引。那你們準備上修五年期營收 CAGR(年複合成長率)嗎,特別是 AI 半導體的 CAGR?我記得之前大概是 50% 後段(high 50%)。但問題是,代理式(agentic)AI 的需求非常強。CPU 對台積電是很好的機會。但記憶體成本上升怎麼看?這在 AI 資本支出(CapEx)裡占了很大一塊。所以 AI 半導體 CAGR 的最新狀況是什麼?以及我們應該如何看待 AI 半導體在台積電成長中的內容與貢獻?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So, Charlie, second question is regarding the AI-related demand.

    所以,查理,第二個問題是關於 AI 相關需求。

  • We do continue to see very strong and positive signals from our customers, customers' customers. We've revised up our full year. So his question is around our AI CAGR guidance that we gave in January on a five-year period mid- to high-50s CAGR growth. He's wondering if there's any update to that.

    我們確實持續從客戶、以及客戶的客戶那裡看到非常強勁且正面的訊號。我們也上修了全年展望。所以他的問題是,我們在一月給出的 AI CAGR 指引——以五年期間來看,年複合成長率約在 50% 中段到後段——是否有任何更新。他想知道這方面有沒有最新變化。

  • Agentic AI, a new opportunity, what is our definition of AI accelerator, do we include that? And what is the CAGR?

    代理式 AI 是一個新機會;我們對 AI 加速器(AI accelerator)的定義是什麼,是否把它也納入?那 CAGR 是多少?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Charlie, if you read our message that we continue to invest more, we increase the CapEx, with a good reason. So if you're asking about the AI's CAGR, let me give you not a number, but it's stronger and stronger and stronger. So we don't give you the number today because it continues to increase, so we don't know how to answer this question. But stronger than what we said before.

    查理,如果你看我們的訊息,我們持續加大投資、提高資本支出,是有充分理由的。所以如果你問 AI 的 CAGR,我先不給你一個數字,但我可以說它越來越強、越來越強、越來越強。我們今天不給數字,因為它還在持續上升,我們不知道該怎麼回答這個問題。但它比我們之前說的還要更強。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Arthur Lai, Macquarie.

    Arthur Lai,麥格理(Macquarie)。

  • Arthur Lai - Analyst

    Arthur Lai - Analyst

  • First, congrats on the strong execution and performance.

    首先,恭喜你們強勁的執行力與表現。

  • My question is regarding the new advanced packaging technology. We noticed that especially the EMIB-T is gaining traction, so how would TSMC react to this request?

    我的問題是關於新的先進封裝技術。我們注意到,特別是 EMIB-T 似乎正在獲得更多採用,所以台積電會如何回應這個需求?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So Arthur's first question is on advanced packaging and competition, I guess very simply put. EMIB-T, in his view, is gaining traction. So how do we see the competitive threat from this?

    所以 Arthur 的第一個問題是關於先進封裝與競爭,我想可以很簡單地說。在他看來,EMIB-T 正在獲得更多採用。所以我們如何看待這帶來的競爭威脅?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, let me say that our packaging capacity is so tight that now it limits my customers' growth. So we welcome that additional flexibility in the market and so that will help TSMC's frontend wafer business growth, which is a majority part of TSMC's business. The technology looks good, according to the newspaper, and we hope they will be successful and so that share some of the loading from TSMC.

    我想說的是,我們的封裝產能非常吃緊,現在甚至限制了客戶的成長。所以我們歡迎市場上有額外的彈性,這也將有助於台積電前段晶圓(frontend wafer)業務的成長,而這是台積電業務中占比最大的部分。根據報紙的說法,那項技術看起來不錯;我們也希望他們能成功,從而分擔台積電的一部分負載。

  • Today, we're working very hard to shorten the gap between the demand and the capacity. And so, as I said, we welcome, have these additional alternatives and so the flexibility for my customer.

    目前我們正非常努力縮小需求與產能之間的差距。所以如我所說,我們歡迎有這些額外的替代方案,讓我的客戶有更大的彈性。

  • Arthur Lai - Analyst

    Arthur Lai - Analyst

  • Thank you. That makes a lot of sense.

    謝謝。這很有道理。

  • So a follow-up. So this is a new technology, right? So if your clients, they ask your support and our value is support our customer success, right, how TSMC will handle this special request?

    那我追問一下。這是一項新技術,對吧?如果你們的客戶需要你們的支援,而我們的價值在於支持客戶成功,那台積電會如何處理這種特殊需求?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Sorry, your question is (multiple speakers) --

    抱歉,你的問題是(多位講者)——

  • Arthur Lai - Analyst

    Arthur Lai - Analyst

  • If these technologies have some small problem and then ask our company to support, so how is our company accommodate it?

    如果這些技術出現一些小問題,然後請我們公司支援,那我們公司會如何配合?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So Arthur question's is, if there is some issues with this technology, do we have a-- or I don't know how to say it, is there an alternative plan?

    所以 Arthur 的問題是,如果這項技術有一些問題,我們是否有一個——或者我不知道該怎麼說——替代方案或備案?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Let me answer the question.

    我來回答這個問題。

  • Our number one is to support our customers' success. So whatever that we can help our customers, the business, we will do it. Does that answer your question? Okay.

    我們的第一要務是支持客戶的成功。所以只要是我們能幫助客戶、幫助其業務的事情,我們都會去做。這樣有回答你的問題嗎?好。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Let's come back. We'll take one more here and then we'll go online and then back to the room.

    我們回來。我們這裡再收一題,然後我們會轉到線上,再回到現場。

  • Yeah, Gokul.

    好,Gokul。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

  • First question on, maybe since you're not wanting to give a longer-term numerical guidance, could you talk to us a little bit about the philosophy of how you are expanding capacity? Obviously, customer feedback, customers' customers' feedback is important.

    第一個問題是,或許既然你們不想提供較長期的數字型指引,能否跟我們談談你們擴充產能的理念?顯然,客戶的回饋、以及客戶的客戶的回饋很重要。

  • Do you also consider competitive pressure? Because as an outright market leader, having like undersupply for a very long period of time is not really desirable for TSMC, right? You probably want a market which is more balanced. So when you think about your capacity expansion, like how long do you think it takes to fulfill the demand as you see right now? That's one.

    你們也會考量競爭壓力嗎?因為作為明顯的市場領導者,長時間嚴重供不應求其實對台積電並不理想,對吧?你們可能希望市場更為平衡。所以當你們思考產能擴張時,以你們目前看到的需求來看,你們認為需要多久才能滿足?這是第一個。

  • And second, chips obviously is the current shortage, but there is also a lot of discussion about data center delay, power capacity being available. So could you also share some thoughts on how you are layering in that kind of concerns? Because you don't want your chips to be available, but having to wait for that data center deployment to happen. So just to understand how that goes into your planning framework as well.

    第二個,晶片顯然是目前的短缺點,但也有很多討論提到資料中心建置延遲、電力容量是否可用等問題。所以你們能否也分享一些想法,說明你們如何把這類疑慮納入考量?因為你不希望晶片已經可供交付,但卻必須等待資料中心部署完成。所以想了解這些因素如何也會進入你們的規劃框架。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. So Gokul's first question is, again, how do we plan our capacity and determine the capacity expansion plan. Certainly, we take into consideration the demand, multi-year demand from our customers and customers' customers, but do we also consider the competitive pressures from competitors' building capacity? Is that part of our calculus to expand the capacity, one?

    謝謝。所以 Gokul 的第一個問題是,我們如何規劃產能並決定產能擴張計畫。當然,我們會把來自客戶以及客戶的客戶的多年期需求納入考量;但我們是否也會考量競爭對手擴建產能所帶來的競爭壓力?這是否也是我們擴產計算的一部分,這是第一個問題。

  • And then also, what about things outside of chips like data center delays or power, these type of deals?

    那麼另外,除了晶片之外,像是資料中心延宕或電力等這類交易,你怎麼看?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Gokul, that's a good question.

    Gokul,這是個好問題。

  • Definitely, every time when we think about business, we consider the competition. That's number one. And then we look at where we are and then we decide a bottom-up and then top-down assessment of those demand. Those are the typical things, I mean, in our daily life. So we make a lot of judgment and then we be more careful. We talk to customers and customers' customers. Those are the CSPs. And then we get all their input for the demand and then we make a judgment. Now remember that I believe every customer tell me the truth, everyone. You put all the truth together, it's not a truth. So we have to make some of the judgment. You know what I mean? Since you are laughing. Because all the customers are very aggressive, right? That's the CEO's job. CEO got to be aggressive. So they give me the number of their demand and I believe they try their best to tell me the truth. So I put all together, all the truth together is not a truth. Mark down that word.

    當然,每次我們思考業務時,都會考量競爭。這是第一。接著我們看我們自身的位置,然後對那些需求做由下而上、再由上而下的評估。這些都是我們日常會做的典型事情。所以我們會做很多判斷,然後更謹慎。我們會和客戶以及客戶的客戶溝通。那些就是CSP。然後我們蒐集他們對需求的所有意見,再做判斷。現在請記得,我相信每位客戶都對我說實話,每一位。但把所有的實話加在一起,就不是實話了。所以我們必須做一些判斷。你懂我的意思嗎?既然你在笑。因為所有客戶都非常積極,對吧?那是CEO的工作。CEO必須很積極。所以他們給我他們的需求數字,我相信他們已盡力對我說實話。所以我把所有實話加在一起,所有的實話加在一起就不是實話。把這句話記下來。

  • So yes, we do a very careful judgment. Might not be correct, but we did carefully and because this is a big money, right? This year, we say we increased the capex from USD52 billion to USD56 billion, now USD60 billion to USD64 billion. And you bet that will continue to increase. It's a big money, so we do it carefully.

    所以是的,我們會非常謹慎地做判斷。可能不一定正確,但我們是很仔細地做,因為這是大筆資金,對吧?今年我們說把資本支出從520億美元提高到560億美元,現在是600億到640億美元。而且你可以確定這還會繼續增加。這是大筆資金,所以我們會很小心。

  • So we did all the assessment and that lead to your second question. Are we sure that we deliver the chips to our customer and they were not put into inventory? So actually, we are checking the AI data centers’ progress, the building, the location, the demand, the racks. We checking all that to make sure that TSMC's chips will not be put in inventory.

    所以我們做了所有評估,這也帶到你的第二個問題。我們是否確定把晶片交付給客戶後,沒有被放進庫存?其實我們在檢查AI資料中心的進度、建置、地點、需求、機櫃(racks)。我們都在檢查這些,以確保台積電的晶片不會被放進庫存。

  • That answer your question.

    這回答了你的問題。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

  • Yeah, that's clear. So C.C. So do you still believe even end of next year, we are still going to be running short of supply even with this elevated capacity build-out plans?

    是的,很清楚。所以C.C.,那你是否仍然相信,即使到明年年底,即便有這些提高產能的擴建計畫,我們仍會面臨供應不足?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • You want me to give you a guarantee, right? Let me say that.

    你是想要我給你保證,對吧?我這麼說。

  • I believe from this day on all the way to probably 2029, 2030, the demand is very strong. Whether in between there's a dip or not, I'm not very sure. But the trend is so robust that I believe we are witnessing a kind of a new industry. I would like to say the new industry called AI industry, which is so common in our daily life because it is going to affect our automotive, affect the humanoid robot, and also impact to all the industry. So by the amount of money we put in, I mean, including all the CSPs, this is alone is a very important new industry to the world. And so the demand will be there. And the fundamental thing is semiconductor chips and most of them in TSMC.

    我相信從今天起一直到大概2029、2030年,需求都非常強。中間是否會有一段下滑,我不太確定。但趨勢非常強勁,我相信我們正在見證一種新產業。我想說這個新產業叫AI產業,它在我們日常生活中會非常普遍,因為它將影響汽車、影響人形機器人,也會衝擊所有產業。所以以我們投入的資金規模來看,我是說,包括所有CSP在內,單就這點而言,這對世界來說就是一個非常重要的新產業。因此需求會在那裡。而最根本的是半導體晶片,而且其中大多數在台積電。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

  • My second question is on your profitability. So CC you joked that you are definitely jealous of memory competitors’ margins. But it definitely feels like profitability-wise, longer-term foundry, especially leading edge foundry, should be higher than memory, looking at number of competitors out there.

    我的第二個問題是關於你的獲利能力。所以CC你開玩笑說你確實很羨慕記憶體競爭對手的毛利率。但從獲利角度來看,長期而言晶圓代工,尤其是先進製程代工,考量到競爭者數量,應該要比記憶體更高。

  • So as you are investing for a lot of your customers, how is that discussion going? Because you are no longer the most profitable semiconductor manufacturing company at this point in time. So you probably have less pressure in terms of passing on your value and capturing your value right now, compared to maybe one year back.

    所以當你為許多客戶投資時,這方面的討論進展如何?因為在此時此刻,你已不再是最賺錢的半導體製造公司。所以相較於可能一年前,你現在在把價值轉嫁出去、以及捕捉自身價值方面的壓力可能更小。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, so Gokul's second question is on profitability and pricing to a certain extent. Of course, some of the memory makers are making very good profitability and margins today, but he notes the role of foundry could be even more value in TSMC's role as well. So what should be the right way to think about the long-term profitability for a foundry? Should it be better? And then I guess really pricing into this? What type of pricing approach do we want to take?

    好的,所以Gokul的第二個問題是關於獲利能力,以及某種程度上的定價。當然,部分記憶體廠商今天的獲利能力與毛利率非常好,但他指出晶圓代工的角色也可能更有價值,台積電的角色亦然。那麼,該如何看待晶圓代工長期的獲利能力才是正確方式?它應該更好嗎?然後我想也牽涉到定價?我們想採取什麼樣的定價方式?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Gokul, your question is actually simple. What is the wafer pricing strategy for TSMC and what kind of gross margin we should have? The higher, the better, of course. But we are a partner, a partner meaning that I say many times, our customer got to be successful. I don't want to squeeze them out from the market. And besides, we are a very trustable company with our customers.

    是的,Gokul,你的問題其實很簡單。台積電的晶圓定價策略是什麼?我們應該有什麼樣的毛利率?當然越高越好。但我們是夥伴,我多次說過,客戶必須成功。我不想把他們擠出市場。此外,我們在客戶心中是一家非常值得信賴的公司。

  • So we don't suddenly increase our price by which I like to have 4x or 5x. You cannot survive for that kind of for -- for your customer to survive for that kind of price increase. So we earn our value and we make sure that our profit, our gross margin is enough for our long-term sustaining expansion, that's to the benefit of my customers and TSMC also, that's our philosophy.

    所以我們不會突然把價格提高到我想要的4倍或5倍。那種漲價幅度,你的客戶不可能生存。所以我們賺取我們的價值,同時確保我們的利潤、我們的毛利率足以支撐長期且可持續的擴張,這對我的客戶與台積電都有利,這就是我們的理念。

  • So yes, I'm really jealous about memory company's 86% gross margin. 86 -- 68, I'll be happy about that. All right. Anyway, so I answered the question. We are very trustable.

    所以是的,我真的很羨慕記憶體公司的86%毛利率。86——68,我就會很開心了。好。總之,我回答了這個問題。我們非常值得信賴。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Operator, can we take the next two questions from participants on the line, please?

    接線生,請讓我們接下來請線上與會者的兩個問題,好嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Fontanelli, Arete.

    Jim Fontanelli,Arete。

  • Jim Fontanelli - Analyst

    Jim Fontanelli - Analyst

  • Could I ask about the risk that you see around customer concentration, as AI demand continues to significantly outgrow other end markets? I think your exposure to your top five customers is becoming meaningfully larger than at any point in your history. So I'd just like to understand how you see that risk.

    我想請教你如何看待客戶集中度的風險,因為AI需求持續顯著超越其他終端市場成長?我認為你對前五大客戶的曝險,正變得比你歷史上任何時點都更大。所以我想了解你如何看待這個風險。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So Jim's first question is risk around customer concentration. We have large customers that are getting larger. Are we worried that we have too many big customers or the customer concentration?

    所以Jim的第一個問題是關於客戶集中度的風險。我們的大客戶正在變得更大。我們是否擔心我們有太多大客戶,或是客戶集中度?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • No, that's not our concern. Besides what you say, the customers are growing bigger and bigger, we are very happy about it. And some of the customers are growing very fast. So it's not, Jim, it's not what you say that the bigger customer is going bigger and bigger. No, I mean, there's a lot of new players in the AI industry.

    不,這不是我們的顧慮。此外,正如你所說,客戶變得越來越大,我們對此非常高興。而且有些客戶成長非常快。所以不是的,Jim,不是你說的那樣:大客戶變得越來越大。不,我是說,AI產業裡有很多新玩家。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Do you have a second question?

    你有第二個問題嗎?

  • Jim Fontanelli - Analyst

    Jim Fontanelli - Analyst

  • Yes. So we're seeing your direct customers put capital into both financing, investing and investing in AI demand. Is that something that TSMC is considering?

    是的。所以我們看到你們的直接客戶把資本投入到融資、投資,以及投資於 AI 需求。這是台積電正在考慮的事情嗎?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So, Jim's second question, he knows some of our customers are helping to invest in their customers.

    所以,Jim 的第二個問題,他知道我們有些客戶正在協助投資他們的客戶。

  • Jim, if I understand you right correctly, you're asking if TSMC, if this is an approach we would take to invest in our customers. Is that correct? Or financing and investing?

    Jim,如果我正確理解你的意思,你是在問台積電是否會採取這種方式來投資我們的客戶。是這樣嗎?或者是融資與投資?

  • Jim Fontanelli - Analyst

    Jim Fontanelli - Analyst

  • Yeah, in the end-end customers, not your direct customers.

    對,是最終端客戶,不是你們的直接客戶。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Right, so in customers' customers as well.

    了解,也就是客戶的客戶。

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • To answer, Jim, to answer your question directly, every company has a different consideration and every company has a different strategy. So far, no, TSMC don't do this kind of financial arrangement, because of we think we are working with current customer, with the current model smoothly and also successfully.

    Jim,直接回答你的問題,每家公司都有不同的考量,也有不同的策略。到目前為止,沒有,台積電不做這類財務安排,因為我們認為以目前的模式與現有客戶合作一直很順暢,也很成功。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • (Event Instructions)

    (活動說明)

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

    Mehdi Hosseini,SIG。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

  • Two from my end. I want to go back to the USD100 billion investment in the US. Is there any way you can give us some timeline? Is it over the next three years, five years? How should we think about the progression of these USD100 billion investment in the US? And I have a follow-up.

    我這邊有兩個問題。我想回到在美國投資 1,000 億美元這件事。你們能否提供一些時間表?是未來三年、五年嗎?我們應該如何看待這 1,000 億美元在美國投資的推進節奏?我還有一個追問。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So Mehdi's first question is around the announcement today, additional USD100 billion investment in the US. In terms of the CapEx, a timeframe, is it in the next three years, in the five years, do we have any schedule or timeframe to share about this additional USD100 billion?

    所以 Mehdi 的第一個問題是關於今天宣布在美國額外投資 1,000 億美元。就資本支出而言,時間框架是未來三年、五年嗎?我們是否有任何進度表或時間範圍可以分享,關於這額外的 1,000 億美元?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • We do have a plan, but let me share with you actually the progress or the schedule, most of the time depending on the market situation and our customers' demand. So if you ask me to give you a firm schedule, no, we don't have it today, but we do have a plan. And we speed it up, we try to speed it up as fast as possible.

    我們確實有計畫,但我想跟你分享的是,實際進度或時程多半取決於市場狀況以及客戶需求。所以如果你要我給一個確定的時程,沒有,我們今天還沒有,但我們有計畫。而且我們會加快速度,盡可能快地加速。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

  • Okay, so the message is you're flexible but also you're expediting the investment in US. Is that correct?

    好的,所以訊息是你們具備彈性,但也在加速美國的投資。是這樣嗎?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Well, I think C.C. said, we're trying to move as fast as we can but everything is based on our customer needs.

    我想 C.C. 的意思是,我們會盡可能快地推進,但一切都以客戶需求為基礎。

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, we're also moving the new fabs and facilities in Taiwan as fast as possible. And the same thing, we try to bring up a new fab in the Japan as fast as possible because -- the situation today is the demand and the supply, the gap is so big, so we are working very hard to narrow the gap.

    是的,我們也在盡可能快地推進台灣的新廠與設施。同樣地,我們也盡可能快地在日本把新廠建起來,因為——目前需求與供給之間的缺口非常大,所以我們非常努力地縮小這個缺口。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

  • And I have a follow-up. Actually, I want to dive into the compute part of HPC. And I want to ask you about the networking switches. And in that context, when should we expect the COUPE platform to have a material contribution to your top-line?

    我還有一個追問。其實我想深入談 HPC 的運算(compute)部分。我想問你們關於網路交換器(networking switches)。在這個脈絡下,我們何時可以期待 COUPE 平台對你們營收(top-line)有實質貢獻?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So Mahdi’s second question, very specific. He wants to know for our COUPE platform. When will it have a very meaningful contribution to the business.

    所以 Mahdi 的第二個問題很具體。他想知道我們的 COUPE 平台。它何時會對業務帶來非常有意義的貢獻。

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • We started the production right now, and it will be ramped up. As time goes by, I think the AI data center need to lower down the power consumption and increase the bandwidth of the communication channel. So I believe the COUPE will continue to increase the demand and then will become a fairly important technology in the next few years.

    我們現在已經開始量產,接下來會逐步放量(ramp up)。隨著時間推進,我認為 AI 資料中心需要降低功耗並提高通訊通道的頻寬。所以我相信 COUPE 的需求會持續增加,並在未來幾年成為相當重要的技術。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Laura Chen, Citi.

    Laura Chen,花旗(Citi)。

  • Laura Chen - Analyst

    Laura Chen - Analyst

  • And my first question is also about very promising outlook as TSMC raised the CapEx and also the growth outlook for this year. And particularly, I think, C.C., you mentioned about the agentic AI and the CPU growth potential. But can you give us some more update among that AI, different kind of chips between GPUs, accelerators, or CPU, what you see the growth potential and your visibility?

    我的第一個問題也與相當樂觀的展望有關,因為台積電上調了今年的資本支出與成長展望。特別是我記得 C.C. 你提到 agentic AI 以及 CPU 的成長潛力。但你能否再多更新一下,在 AI 之中,不同類型晶片(GPU、加速器或 CPU)你們看到的成長潛力與能見度如何?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So Laura's first question is around sort of the outlook. We obviously raised the CapEx and growth outlook for this year. She wants to know within the AI, the outlook for agentic AI and CPUs versus AI accelerators, GPUs, et cetera. How do we see these segments.

    所以 Laura 的第一個問題是關於展望。我們顯然上調了今年的資本支出與成長展望。她想了解在 AI 之內,agentic AI 與 CPU 相對於 AI 加速器、GPU 等的展望。我們如何看待這些細分領域。

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Laura, I don't think I can give you a very specific number, but let me share with you, all of them are in TSMC, and they're also using the same kind of leading-edge technologies. We're working with our customers to allocate the wafer, the supply to balance the CPU, GPU, XPU's ratio.

    Laura,我想我無法給你非常具體的數字,但我可以跟你分享的是,這些都在台積電的業務範圍內,而且它們也都使用相同類型的先進製程技術。我們正與客戶合作分配晶圓供給,以平衡 CPU、GPU、XPU 的比例。

  • Laura Chen - Analyst

    Laura Chen - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you. Yeah, that makes sense.

    好的,謝謝。是的,這很合理。

  • And then my second question is also about the advanced packaging. We know that during the Symposium, TSMC previously already announced 14 times reticle CoWoS roadmap to enable larger AI packaging. But at the same time, we also noted that TSMC, maybe last month in Japan, you showed the substrate developments for CoWoS to enable some of the glass technology. So I'm just wondering if you can give us more like technologies progress update on the different kind of technology for glass-core or glass substrate or a glass carrier, what's the progress at TSMC right now?

    接著我的第二個問題也關於先進封裝。我們知道在 Symposium 期間,台積電先前已宣布 14 倍光罩尺寸(14x reticle)的 CoWoS 路線圖,以支援更大的 AI 封裝。但同時我們也注意到台積電可能在上個月於日本展示了用於 CoWoS 的載板(substrate)開發,以導入一些玻璃技術。所以我想請問,你能否多分享一些不同玻璃技術(例如玻璃核心、玻璃載板或玻璃載體)的技術進展?台積電目前的進度如何?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So Laura's second question is on advanced packaging. She notes, as we said, we roadmap to even larger than 14x reticle size with CoWoS, but she also wants to know the technology process in newer areas like glass substrates, glass-cores, what is the progress and status.

    所以 Laura 的第二個問題是關於先進封裝。她提到我們說過 CoWoS 的路線圖會做到甚至大於 14 倍光罩尺寸,但她也想了解像玻璃載板、玻璃核心等較新的領域,其技術進展與目前狀態如何。

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Let me say that today, the majority is still CoWoS, right? And we are developing that alternative, try to lower down the cost. And we also work with substrate vendor so that our customer can have their product be in the market. The progress, we're building a pipeline that I announced a few quarters ago, and it takes about another one year to be mature, so we can put into the production with our customer.

    我先說,今天主流仍然是 CoWoS,對吧?我們也在開發替代方案,嘗試降低成本。同時我們也與載板供應商合作,讓客戶的產品能夠上市。至於進度,我們正在建立我在幾個季度前宣布的技術管線,還需要大約一年時間成熟,之後就能與客戶一起導入量產。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Bank of America, Haas Liu.

    美國銀行(Bank of America),Haas Liu。

  • Haas Liu - Analyst

    Haas Liu - Analyst

  • Congrats on great results.

    恭喜有很好的業績表現。

  • My first question is regarding your CapEx and sales. You gave pretty solid CapEx outlook for this year and also said the CapEx outlook in the next couple of years will continue to be pretty significant. And you also raised this year at 40%-plus. So would you be able to provide your next couple of years sales growth outlook, try to quantify it?

    我的第一個問題是關於你們的資本支出與營收。你們給了今年相當穩健的資本支出展望,也表示未來幾年資本支出仍會相當可觀。同時你們也把今年的成長上調到 40% 以上。那你們是否能提供未來幾年的營收成長展望,並嘗試量化?

  • And relatedly, I think also on that topic is whether you can just try to break down which part of the demand you are seeing as the key driver for you to raise your CapEx and also for this year's demand? Is it still mostly driven by cloud computing or it is proliferating to edge computing? Or to some extent, is it also related to your equipment supply chain is raising their price as well?

    另外也相關的是,你們能否拆解一下,你們看到哪些需求是促使你們上調資本支出、以及推動今年需求的關鍵驅動因素?是否仍主要由雲端運算帶動,還是正在擴散到邊緣運算?或者在某種程度上,也與你們的設備供應鏈同樣在調漲價格有關?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, that's several questions in one. So I'm going to take that as one and a half questions at least. But basically, Haas is asking with the CapEx increase and the revenue increase this year, I think he's trying to look at intensity, but he wants to know what about the revenue guidance for the next several years.

    好,這其實是好幾個問題合在一起。所以我至少把它當作一個半的問題來回答。但基本上,Haas 是在問,隨著今年資本支出(CapEx)增加、營收也增加,我想他是在看資本強度,但他想知道的是未來幾年的營收指引如何。

  • Yes, I'll stop.

    是的,我先到這裡。

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay, let me answer that question. Because of the revenue corresponding to our investment, right, because we know we forecast our demand and then we make an assessment and then we do the CapEx. Next few years is going to be a very good business for TSMC. That's all I can say.

    好,我來回答這個問題。因為營收是對應我們的投資,對吧?因為我們會先預測需求,然後做評估,再進行資本支出。未來幾年對台積電來說會是非常好的生意。我能說的就這些。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • And then the other part, so what's the key driver? Is it cloud AI? Is it edge AI? Is it because tool vendors are increasing the price?

    那另一部分,關鍵驅動因素是什麼?是雲端 AI 嗎?是邊緣 AI 嗎?還是因為設備供應商在提高價格?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • It's all AI related, everything.

    全部都跟 AI 有關,所有的一切。

  • Haas Liu - Analyst

    Haas Liu - Analyst

  • Yes, I think it is more on your long-term strategy because. A lot of people have actually been asking about your CapEx and also competition on the frontend. But I would actually say that if on the backend competition is rising, especially coming from Intel EMIB-T. Are you worried that your value-add for overall foundry business across frontend manufacturing to the backend packaging business, the value-add could actually be cannibalized with growing competition?

    是的,我想這比較偏向你們的長期策略,因為很多人其實一直在問你們的資本支出,以及前段(frontend)的競爭。但我反而想說,如果後段(backend)的競爭正在升溫,尤其是來自 Intel 的 EMIB-T。你們會不會擔心,從前段製造到後段封裝的整體晶圓代工價值加值,會因為競爭加劇而被蠶食?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, thank you. So Haas's second question is around the competition in advanced packaging. If our competitors are able to gain traction or business with things like EMIB-T, would that be the gateway or an entryway into more competitive threat on the frontend logic wafer side? So does advanced packaging lead to frontend wafer?

    好,謝謝。所以 Haas 的第二個問題是關於先進封裝的競爭。如果競爭對手能透過像 EMIB-T 這樣的技術取得進展或拿到生意,這會不會成為通往、或切入前段邏輯晶圓業務更具競爭威脅的入口?也就是說,先進封裝會帶動前段晶圓嗎?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Let me answer that. The frontend wafer business and the backend business are two different things, right? If they are the same, then you can expect ASE become the frontend competitor also. It’s two different things. And I also say that since our capacity in the backend is still in shortage mode, the gap is bigger. And so I welcome that the competitor offer some of the flexibility to my customer so that their frontend wafer can be put into the package and that help TSMC's frontend wafer business. That's our attitude.

    我來回答。前段晶圓業務和後段業務是兩件不同的事情,對吧?如果它們是同一件事,那你也可以預期 ASE 也會成為前段的競爭對手。它們是兩件不同的事。而且我也要說,因為我們後段的產能仍然處於短缺狀態,缺口更大。所以我歡迎競爭對手提供一些彈性給我的客戶,讓他們的前段晶圓能夠進入封裝,這反而有助於台積電的前段晶圓業務。這就是我們的態度。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Operator, let's take one more from the online and then we'll wrap up with back in person.

    接線員,我們再從線上提一位,然後最後回到現場收尾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Sanders, Deutsche Bank.

    Robert Sanders,德意志銀行。

  • Robert Sanders - Analyst

    Robert Sanders - Analyst

  • You recently stated that high-NA tools are too expensive, but could you please discuss how your customers are considering the impact of die stitching challenges from a smaller field size with high-NA? Could that actually slow the adoption of high-NA even if the tech improves or the tech gets more productive?

    你們最近表示 high-NA 設備太昂貴,但可否請你們談談,客戶如何看待 high-NA 因為較小視場(field size)所帶來的晶粒拼接(die stitching)挑戰的影響?即使技術改善或生產力提升,這是否仍可能放慢 high-NA 的導入?

  • And I have a follow-up, thanks.

    我還有一個追問,謝謝。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Well, Rob's first question is very specific technology. Around high-NA adoption, he wants to know the customer's feedback on the challenges with die stitching. Is this an impediment or barrier to high-NA adoption in our view?

    Rob 的第一個問題是非常特定的技術問題。關於 high-NA 的導入,他想知道客戶對晶粒拼接挑戰的回饋。在我們看來,這是否會成為導入 high-NA 的阻礙或門檻?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • You've got a very detailed understanding of the high-NA. Today, the field size is only one-half and we put that one into our consideration of the manufacturing cost and something. Again, let me answer this question quickly. Whether we use a high-NA or not, actually, one, high-NA is a very good tool. Let's assume that, all right. We understand it's very high performance. But then TSMC make it clear that we work with ASML and try to make it more suitable for manufacturing in terms of the cost and in terms of the maturity. So we always consider that technology, maturity, and the cost in whether we use it or not.

    你對 high-NA 的理解非常深入。目前視場大小只有一半,我們已把這點納入製造成本等方面的考量。我再快速回答這個問題。我們是否使用 high-NA,第一,high-NA 確實是一個非常好的工具,我們先這樣假設,好嗎。我們了解它的效能非常高。但台積電也很清楚地表示,我們會與 ASML 合作,讓它在成本與成熟度方面更適合量產製造。所以我們在決定是否採用時,永遠會考量技術、成熟度與成本。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, C.C. Do you have a second question, Rob?

    謝謝你,C.C. Rob,你有第二個問題嗎?

  • Robert Sanders - Analyst

    Robert Sanders - Analyst

  • Yeah, just a quick follow-up.

    有的,簡單追問一下。

  • I think all of us on this call are assuming that the unconstrained demand for 3 nanometer and below is sort of 30% to 50% above your ability to supply. Is it in fact much larger than 30% to 50% above? Because it feels like it might be based on what you're saying, because I think all of us are assuming it's sort of solvable over the next three, four years, but it sounds like the number could be much larger.

    我想我們在這通電話上的所有人都假設,對 3 奈米及以下的「不受限需求」大概比你們能供應的能力高出 30% 到 50%。實際上是否遠大於高出 30% 到 50%?因為從你們的說法聽起來,可能更高;而且我想我們都假設這在未來三、四年大致可解,但聽起來這個數字可能大得多。

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Well, those are your numbers, but Robert is asking the demand in excess of supply, is it 30% to 50%? Is it something even larger? Do we have a number to share?

    這些是你們的數字,不過 Robert 在問的是,超出供給的需求到底是 30% 到 50% 嗎?還是更大?我們有沒有可以分享的數字?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • No, we don't have a number to share because of -- let me say that the gap is very big. Bigger than… Sorry, I don't want to make a comment on the memory, but a very big gap.

    沒有,我們沒有可以分享的數字,因為——我只能說缺口非常大。比……抱歉,我不想對記憶體做評論,但缺口非常大。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Evelyn Yu, Goldman.

    Evelyn Yu,高盛。

  • Evelyn Yu - Analyst

    Evelyn Yu - Analyst

  • We mentioned a lot on that we're going to step up our capacity growth. I'm just trying to quantify here because I noticed that during your Symposium that you actually mentioned about 2-nanometer family capacity growth will be growing at around 70% CAGR from '26 to '28 and N3+ N5 to grow by 25% CAGR from 2022 to '27. So I was just wondering, are those numbers still right assumptions today? Are we seeing actually any changes over the past quarter and how should we compare with the non-supporting demand out there?

    你們提到很多次會加快產能成長。我想量化一下,因為我注意到在你們的技術論壇(Symposium)上,你們其實提到 2 奈米家族的產能成長在 2026 到 2028 年大約是 70% 的年複合成長率(CAGR),而 N3+、N5 在 2022 到 2027 年約 25% CAGR。所以我想請問,這些數字在今天仍然是正確的假設嗎?過去一季我們是否看到任何變化?以及我們應該如何與外部的未被滿足需求做比較?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Evelyn's first question is around capacity growth. She knows during the symposium we did share some five-year CAGR growth numbers for 2 nanometer, around 70% CAGR, and then 3 nanometer around, I guess, I can't remember the exact, but 25%. So are those numbers still the same, or has it changed now that our CapEx and stuff?

    好。所以 Evelyn 的第一個問題是關於產能成長。她知道我們在論壇上分享過一些五年期的 CAGR 數字:2 奈米大約 70% CAGR,然後 3 奈米大約——我記不太清楚確切數字——但大概 25%。所以這些數字是否仍相同?或是隨著我們的資本支出等而有所改變?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Did we say that in Technology Symposium? Oh, we show the chart. Okay, now is bigger. That's all I say.

    我們在技術論壇有這樣說嗎?喔,我們是秀了那張圖。好,現在更大。我只能說到這裡。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Do you have a second question.

    你有第二個問題嗎?

  • Evelyn Yu - Analyst

    Evelyn Yu - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you. Very good direction.

    好,謝謝。方向非常好。

  • All right, my other question touched based on the advanced packaging side. Because you always bundle the advanced packaging CapEx together with testing, mask-making, and others, that's around 10% to 20% of total CapEx. And so one thing I'm trying to figure out here is that how much of that actually goes through advanced packaging alone?

    好,我的另一個問題是關於先進封裝。因為你們總是把先進封裝的資本支出與測試、光罩製作及其他項目綁在一起,約占總資本支出的 10% 到 20%。所以我想弄清楚的是,其中有多少其實是單純投入在先進封裝?

  • And because given that advanced packaging is capital intensive, less capital intensive versus frontend, so how should we think about a gap between its pricing revenue share and its CapEx share over the next few years? And well, I think finally is that as it becomes more important, how should we think of maybe you should consider bringing it out as a separate CapEx item going forward?

    另外,考量到先進封裝相較於前段的資本密集度較低,我們應該如何看待未來幾年它在定價/營收占比與資本支出占比之間的落差?最後,隨著它變得更重要,你們是否應該考慮未來把它獨立列為一個單獨的資本支出項目?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, so Evelyn's question is around advanced packaging. She wants to know when we guide for the CapEx? Of course, we guide it in a bucket of packaging, testing, mask-making and others together. Why do we not separate out just into packaging specifically? Her suggestion is we should, but I think more so that's part of it, number one, the CapEx breakdown.

    好的,所以 Evelyn 的問題是關於先進封裝。她想知道我們何時會對資本支出(CapEx)給出指引?當然,我們是把它放在封裝、測試、光罩製作以及其他項目合併成一個籃子來提供指引。為什麼我們不把封裝單獨拆出來?她的建議是應該拆出來,但我認為更主要的是,這是其中一部分,第一點是資本支出的拆分。

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Evelyn, let me say that we try very hard to make sure that our CapEx number is correct, but with the flexibility between the frontend and the backend. Sometimes we have a bottleneck, so we put more money to buy the bottleneck tools. And sometimes it's in the frontend, sometimes it's in the backend. But in the ballpark, the percentage is just like a window shared with everybody. For long-term, I mean, that's a backend is about 10 to 20%, that's a big range.

    Evelyn,我想說我們非常努力確保我們的資本支出數字是正確的,但同時保有前段與後段之間的彈性。有時候我們會遇到瓶頸,所以我們會投入更多資金去購買瓶頸設備。而有時瓶頸在前段,有時在後段。但大致上,這個百分比就像是一個提供給大家的區間。以長期來看,我是說後段大約是 10% 到 20%,這是一個很大的範圍。

  • Anyway, so that we -- all I can say is that still 10 to 20%. Because as I said, actually, I'm very honest to tell you that as time goes by, some of the customers' products need more tester. You cannot believe that. I mean, so the tester in shortage, so we have to put more CapEx in the tester or in the packaging or in other areas. So that's why we cannot be very specifically say which area we put how much of the CapEx.

    總之,我們——我能說的就是仍然是 10% 到 20%。因為如我所說,我很坦白地告訴你,隨著時間推進,有些客戶的產品需要更多測試機。你可能不敢相信。也就是說測試機短缺,所以我們必須把更多資本支出投入在測試機、封裝或其他領域。所以這就是為什麼我們無法非常具體地說哪個領域會投入多少資本支出。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • That's too specific.

    那樣太具體了。

  • Felix Pan, KGI.

    Felix Pan,凱基(KGI)。

  • Felix Pan - Analyst

    Felix Pan - Analyst

  • So my first question is regarding to the CapEx revision. So from year to date, so TSMC raised the CapEx guidance by almost USD10 billion. So can you give me some color, where is the upside from, how you guys see the difference from six months ago. Is that from like CPU accelerator, or memory companion chip, or backend CoWoS expansion. Just the upside, how we see things differently from six months ago?

    我的第一個問題是關於資本支出上修。截至目前為止,台積電把資本支出指引上調了將近 100 億美元。能否請你提供一些背景,這個上修主要來自哪裡?你們如何看待與六個月前相比的差異?是來自像 CPU 加速器、記憶體伴隨晶片,或是後段 CoWoS 擴產嗎?也就是說,這個上修是什麼原因,為什麼你們現在和六個月前看法不同?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So Felix is noting, in January, we guided for USD52 billion to USD56 billion. In April, we said closer to USD56 billion, now USD60 billion to USD64 billion. So we have increased the CapEx guidance. What is driving this? Is it agentic AI only? Is it packaging? Is it AI accelerator?

    所以 Felix 指出,我們在一月給的指引是 520 億到 560 億美元。四月我們說會更接近 560 億美元,現在是 600 億到 640 億美元。所以我們提高了資本支出指引。是什麼在驅動這件事?只是代理式 AI(agentic AI)嗎?是封裝嗎?是 AI 加速器嗎?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, simply put, the most important reason is because that demand continues to increase. And we feel the pressure from the customer to drive TSMC, not drive, actually to cooperate with TSMC for the capacity increase. That's one of the major reasons.

    嗯,簡單來說,最重要的原因是需求持續增加。而我們感受到客戶的壓力,希望台積電——不是驅動,實際上是與台積電合作來提升產能。這是主要原因之一。

  • The second reason is inflation. Now we buy the tools with inflation price, okay? You understand what I say.

    第二個原因是通膨。現在我們是用通膨後的價格去買設備,好嗎?你明白我的意思。

  • Felix Pan - Analyst

    Felix Pan - Analyst

  • So my second question is about the mature node. So people always focus on AI leading nodes, but it seems like mature nodes also seeing a very strong demand recovery and also some supply issue as well. So how do you guys see the demand-supply dynamic and pricing for the mature node?

    我的第二個問題是關於成熟製程。大家總是聚焦在 AI 的先進製程,但看起來成熟製程也出現非常強勁的需求復甦,並且也有一些供給面的問題。你們如何看成熟製程的供需動態與定價?

  • Because apparently, there's some impact from the AI crowding-out effect, but mature node still largely depends on the consumer demand. So consumer demand is still weak. So how you guys see the demand-supply dynamic for the mature node?

    因為顯然有一些 AI 排擠效應(crowding-out effect)的影響,但成熟製程仍然很大程度取決於消費性需求。而消費性需求仍然疲弱。所以你們如何看成熟製程的供需動態?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. So Felix's second question is on mature node.

    謝謝。所以 Felix 的第二個問題是關於成熟製程。

  • He notes there's lots of talk that mature nodes are seeing a strong demand recovery and the supply is very tight. So mature node pricing is very favorable or strong. So he wants to know how do we see the mature node supply-demand situation?

    他指出市場上有很多討論說成熟製程正出現強勁的需求復甦,而且供給非常吃緊。所以成熟製程的價格非常有利或很強勢。他想知道我們如何看成熟製程的供需狀況?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Actually, the mature node cover a lot of different segments. Only the one with related to AI is in shortage, which is the most important one is the number one is power management IC, because all the AI data center need a lot of power management. And those are the mature node technology, like 0.18 micron, 90 nanometer, or something like that. Those are in shortage, definitely. And also, the sensor portion, because you need a lot of sensors to detect the environmental information and put it into the AI data center to analyze it.

    其實成熟製程涵蓋很多不同的區塊。只有與 AI 相關的那一類出現短缺,其中最重要的、第一名是電源管理 IC,因為所有 AI 資料中心都需要大量的電源管理。而那些都是成熟製程技術,例如 0.18 微米、90 奈米之類。那些確實是短缺的。另外還有感測器的部分,因為你需要大量感測器來偵測環境資訊,並把它送進 AI 資料中心去分析。

  • Other than that, other area, just like you pointed out, the consumer product is not in a high demand, and so other segment is not in so strong demand. And as I pointed out in my statement, other area, no, it's not so much of, say, in a lot of shortage, not at all.

    除此之外,其他領域就像你指出的,消費性產品需求並不高,因此其他區塊的需求也沒有那麼強。而且如我在聲明中指出的,其他領域並沒有出現很多所謂的短缺,完全沒有。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Thank you, C.C. Thank you, Wendell. Thank you, everyone.

    謝謝。謝謝你,C.C.。謝謝你,Wendell。謝謝大家。

  • This does conclude our Q&A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now. The transcript will become available 24 hours from now, and both are going to be available through our website, again, at www.tsmc.com.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。在結束今天的會議之前,請注意本次會議的重播將在 30 分鐘內可供收聽。逐字稿將在 24 小時後提供,兩者都會透過我們的網站提供,再次提醒,網址是 www.tsmc.com。

  • If some of you are not able to ask your question, please feel free to reach out to TSMC IR, and we will follow-up with you. So thank you, everyone for joining us today. We hope everyone continues to stay well. Have a good summer, and we hope you'll join us again next quarter.

    如果各位之中有人未能提問,歡迎隨時聯繫台積電投資人關係(IR),我們會再與您跟進。所以謝謝大家今天的參與。我們希望大家都能持續保持健康。祝大家夏天愉快,也希望下個季度能再次與各位相見。

  • Thank you, and have a good day.

    謝謝,祝各位有美好的一天。

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