使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Intel Corporations' second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.
感謝各位稍候,歡迎參加英特爾公司 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位,今天的會議將被錄音。
And now, I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Mr. John Pitzer, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
現在,我很榮幸介紹今天會議的主持人:投資人關係副總裁 John Pitzer 先生。先生,請開始。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, Jonathan, and good afternoon to everyone joining us today. By now, you should have received a copy of the Q2 earnings release and presentation. Both are available on our Investor Relations website, intc.com.
謝謝你,Jonathan,也向今天加入我們的各位致上下午好。此刻各位應已收到第二季財報新聞稿與簡報。兩者皆可於我們的投資人關係網站 intc.com 取得。
For those joining us online today, this presentation is also available on our webcast window. I am joined today by our CEO, Lip-Bu Tan; and our CFO, David Zinsner. Lip-Bu will open up with comments on second-quarter results and update the progress we're making on strategic priorities. Dave will then discuss our overall financial results, including third-quarter guidance, before we transition to answer your questions.
對於今天線上參與的各位,本簡報也可在我們的網路直播視窗中查看。今天與我一同出席的有我們的執行長陳立武(Lip-Bu Tan)以及財務長 David Zinsner。立武將先就第二季業績發表評論,並更新我們在策略優先事項上的進展。接著 Dave 將說明整體財務結果,包括第三季財測,之後我們將進入問答環節。
Before we begin, please note that today's presentation does contain forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it. As such, they are subject to various risks and uncertainties. It also contains reference to non-GAAP financial measures that we believe provide useful information to our investors. Our earnings release, most recent annual report on Form 10-K, and other filings with the SEC provide more information on specific risk factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from our expectations. They also provide additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation where appropriate to our corresponding GAAP financial measures.
在開始之前,請注意今天的簡報包含以前瞻性陳述為主,係基於我們目前所見的環境。因此,這些陳述可能受到各種風險與不確定性影響。簡報亦包含非 GAAP 財務衡量指標,我們相信可為投資人提供有用資訊。我們的財報新聞稿、最新的 Form 10-K 年報,以及向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的其他文件,提供更多特定風險因素資訊;這些因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預期出現重大差異。上述文件亦提供我們非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的補充資訊,包括在適用情況下與相對應 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表。
With that, let me turn it over to Lip-Bu.
接下來,我把時間交給立武。
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. Q2 was another quarter of solid execution. Revenue, gross margin, earning per share were above our guidance. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter of exceeding our financial expectations.
謝謝你,John,各位下午好。第二季是另一個執行穩健的季度。營收、毛利率與每股盈餘皆高於我們的財測。這是我們連續第七個季度超越財務預期。
Our core message is simple. Strong demand for our products continue to outpace our growing supply. Our design, manufacturing, execution is improving. And operating discipline we put in place 15 months ago is beginning to show tangible results.
我們的核心訊息很簡單。對我們產品的強勁需求持續超過我們正在成長的供給能力。我們在設計、製造與執行方面正在改善。而我們在 15 個月前建立的營運紀律,開始展現具體成果。
Today, we are seeing the strongest revenue growth in more than 15 years. Our cultural transformation continues. And our organization is already operating with greater efficiency, moving faster, making better decisions, and staying closer to the customers.
今天,我們正看到超過 15 年來最強勁的營收成長。我們的文化轉型仍在持續。而我們的組織已以更高效率運作、行動更快、做出更好的決策,並更貼近客戶。
Our recent announcement to deepen our collaboration with Google Cloud will help to accelerate the transformation as we fully embrace an AI-first mentality throughout operations. We also continue to strengthen our leadership team with world-class talent. The surging demand and rapid buildout of compute infrastructure across the world creates a meaningful opportunity for us in our product business as well as our foundry business.
我們近期宣布深化與 Google Cloud 的合作,將有助於加速轉型,因為我們在整體營運中全面擁抱 AI-first 的思維。我們也持續以世界級人才強化領導團隊。全球對運算基礎設施的需求激增與快速建置,為我們的產品業務以及晶圓代工業務帶來重要機會。
Industry is facing one of the most severe supply constraints in its history, across leading-edge logic, silicon wafers, memory and subscripts. These shortages will persist for the foreseeable future. Intel is well positioned to benefit from this strong sustained demand with three strategically important assets. Our x86 CPU franchise, our advanced packaging technology, and our vast wafer foundry network. As AI expands from training to influence and increasingly to agentic and multi-agent systems, general-purpose server CPU density continue to increase. And our core server CPU franchise is growing faster than ever.
整個產業正面臨其歷史上最嚴峻的供應限制之一,涵蓋先進邏輯製程、矽晶圓、記憶體與基板。這些短缺在可預見的未來仍將持續。英特爾憑藉三項具策略重要性的資產,已做好準備從這股強勁且持續的需求中受益。我們的 x86 CPU 產品版圖、先進封裝技術,以及龐大的晶圓代工網路。隨著 AI 從訓練擴展到推論,並日益走向代理式(agentic)與多代理系統(multi-agent systems),通用型伺服器 CPU 的密度持續提升。而我們的核心伺服器 CPU 產品版圖正以前所未有的速度成長。
Demand signals from our customers are driving increased confidence. And as Dave will discuss in more detail, we are substantially increasing our investments to support this improving demand outlook.
來自客戶的需求訊號正推動我們信心提升。正如 Dave 將更詳細說明的,我們正大幅增加投資,以支援這個改善中的需求展望。
Let me talk first about Intel Foundry. My confidence in our foundry process roadmap has grown significantly since joining over a year ago. I'm more confident than ever of the strategic significance and unique value proposition of Intel Foundry. During Q2, our factories across Intel 7, Intel 3, and Intel 18A exceeded internal volume targets, driven by improving use, better cycle times, and increasing wafer starts.
我先談談 Intel Foundry(英特爾晶圓代工)。自一年多前加入以來,我對我們代工製程路線圖的信心顯著提升。我比以往任何時候都更有信心,Intel Foundry 具備策略性重要性與獨特的價值主張。在第二季,我們在 Intel 7、Intel 3 與 Intel 18A 的各座工廠皆超越內部出貨量目標,主要受惠於稼動率改善、更佳的週期時間,以及晶圓投片增加。
18A output increased meaningfully in the quarter. Yields continue to track ahead of expectations. We are now ramping multiple new products on 18A while supporting growing demand for our lead products, including Panther Lake and Wildcat Lake. I keep raising the bar on the internal targets and the team continues to meet the challenge.
18A 的產出在本季顯著提升。良率持續優於預期。我們目前正以 18A 同步量產多項新產品,同時支援我們領先產品日益成長的需求,包括 Panther Lake 與 Wildcat Lake。我持續提高內部目標門檻,而團隊也持續迎接挑戰並達成目標。
The successful volume ramp of 18A for our internal products provide important validations as our Intel Foundry engaged with external customer. We also began risk production of 18A-P, providing additional performance and power advantages while maintaining IP and design compatibility with Intel 18A., positioning 18A-P as a competitive node for external customers.
18A 在我們內部產品上的成功量產爬坡,為 Intel Foundry 與外部客戶的合作提供了重要驗證。我們也開始進行 18A-P 的風險試產,在維持與 Intel 18A 的 IP 與設計相容性的同時,提供額外的效能與功耗優勢,使 18A-P 成為面向外部客戶具競爭力的製程節點。
Looking beyond 18A, I'm encouraged by our progress on Intel 14A. Defect density and transistor performance are all outpacing 18A development. PDK 0.5 is now complete, and PDK 0.9 is on track for October. We continue to build out and validate the IP portfolio for 14A as we position the 14A family for broad-based adoptions across a wide range of customers.
展望 18A 之後,我對 Intel 14A 的進展感到振奮。缺陷密度與電晶體效能皆超越 18A 的開發進度。PDK 0.5 現已完成,PDK 0.9 也按計畫於 10 月推出。我們持續擴充並驗證 14A 的 IP 產品組合,並將 14A 系列定位為可在廣泛客戶群中被大規模採用。
I'm pleased to see the increasing momentum on customer engagements for Intel 14A, and I'm increasingly confident that the 14A will be highly competitive process offering across key vectors of performance: power, density, cost, and schedule. With encouraging external customer progress and increased demand for our internal products, we'll remain on track for 14A risk production for our internal products in second half of 2027. And we make the decision in Q2 to fully commit to high-volume RAM in 2028.
我很高興看到 Intel 14A 在客戶合作上的動能持續提升,也越來越有信心 14A 將在關鍵指標上提供高度競爭力的製程方案:功耗、密度、成本與時程。在外部客戶進展令人鼓舞、以及內部產品需求增加的帶動下,我們仍將按計畫於 2027 年下半年為內部產品進行 14A 風險試產。我們也在第二季做出決定,全面承諾於 2028 年導入高產量 RAM。
Lastly, on advanced packaging. Customer interest for EMIB-T continue to be very high. Technology is compelling, providing capabilities for advanced AI silicon solutions, which are not possible with today's mainstream offerings. We continue to have a growing EMIB-T backlog. Yield and reliability are hitting targets, and we focused on ramping the technology in high volume and high quality to support customer RAMs in 2027.
最後談先進封裝。客戶對 EMIB-T 的興趣仍然非常高。這項技術極具吸引力,可提供先進 AI 矽解決方案的能力,而這些能力是當今主流方案無法達成的。我們的 EMIB-T 訂單積壓持續增加。良率與可靠度皆達成目標,我們聚焦於以高產量與高品質推升該技術的量產爬坡,以支援客戶在 2027 年的 RAM。
Turning to Intel products. We recently renamed our PC business to our client, computing, and physical AI group, or CCPG. We did this to recognize the growing opportunity for AI at the edge. I'm excited to have a new strengthened leadership driving this effort.
接著談 Intel 產品業務。我們近期將 PC 業務更名為「客戶運算與實體 AI 事業群」(client, computing, and physical AI group),簡稱 CCPG。我們這麼做是為了反映邊緣端 AI 日益成長的機會。我很期待由一個全新且更強化的領導團隊來推動這項工作。
In our core PC client segment, Intel 18A is now in volume production across multiple commercial and consumer products. Our factory output continues to increase sequentially every month. The successful high-volume RAM of 18A for our internal products provides important validation as Intel Foundry engage with external customer.
在我們核心的 PC 客戶端市場區隔中,Intel 18A 現已在多項商用與消費性產品上進入量產。我們的工廠產出持續逐月環比提升。18A 在我們內部產品上的成功高產量 RAM,為 Intel Foundry 與外部客戶合作提供了重要驗證。
We still have work to do to establish strong footprint in the edge and physical AI ecosystem but see this opportunity as important future growth driver. Our data center AI Group delivered solid quarter. Demand accelerate across cloud and enterprise as customers increasingly recognize the critical role that CPUs in general. An x86 CPUs in particular, play in the AI infrastructure.
我們在邊緣與實體 AI 生態系中建立強大版圖仍有工作要做,但我們將此機會視為重要的未來成長驅動力。我們的資料中心 AI 事業群本季表現穩健。隨著客戶日益認知到 CPU(尤其是 x86 CPU)在 AI 基礎設施中所扮演的關鍵角色,雲端與企業端的需求正在加速。特別是 x86 CPU,在 AI 基礎設施中扮演重要角色。
Q2 year-over-year server growth was the strongest on record. And Xeon 6 continue to be one of the fastest ramping products in Intel's history, refracting, improving execution, and strong customer demand.
第二季伺服器年增成長創下歷史最強紀錄。而 Xeon 6 也持續成為 Intel 歷史上導入速度最快的產品之一,反映出執行力提升以及強勁的客戶需求。
We have also strengthened our outlook with the additional strategic customer wins and long-term agreements in Q2. Our top priority is to ramp capacity and improve factory output as quickly as possible to support customer demand even as we work to improve our competitive roadmap. We also extended our heterogeneous AI strategy to multi-year collaboration with SambaNova. We are pleased with their growing momentum as we work with them to drive performance and power improvements with this aggregated inference.
我們也在第二季透過新增的策略性客戶勝出與長期協議,強化了我們的展望。我們的首要任務是盡快提升產能並改善工廠產出,以支援客戶需求,同時也持續改善我們的競爭性產品藍圖。我們也將異質化 AI 策略延伸至與 SambaNova 的多年期合作。在與他們合作推動此聚合式推論的效能與功耗改善之際,我們對其日益增長的動能感到欣慰。
Lastly, we continue to make steady progress in our newly announced design services business, with revenue growing nearly 3 times year over year. We see tremendous opportunities to leverage our strong x86 space, general-purpose computing franchise, to build more purpose-built computing products for the AI era. For the AI era. Our unique assets in end-to-end design, our IP portfolio combined with access to our leading-edge wafer and packaging capabilities position as well to win this fast-growing space. We are already making great strides in expanding our purpose-built portfolio from networking to compute and eventually accelerated this.
最後,我們在新近宣布的設計服務業務上持續穩步推進,營收年增近 3 倍。我們看到龐大機會可運用我們強大的 x86 版圖與通用運算事業基礎,為 AI 時代打造更具目的性的運算產品。為 AI 時代。我們在端到端設計方面的獨特資產、IP 產品組合,以及可使用我們領先的晶圓與封裝能力,使我們具備優勢以在這個快速成長的領域勝出。我們已在擴展目的型產品組合方面取得重大進展,從網路到運算,並最終推進至加速運算。
Our recently announced collaboration with Fortinet for their security processor is a strong step forward in our ASIC strategy in the quarter. As we look ahead, I'm excited to see new Intel take shape. We are operating with greater speed, accountability, and customer focus. While there's still significant work ahead, our priorities are clear, leverage on our x86 computing franchise to strengthen our product leadership and establish Intel Foundry as a world-class wafer and packaging foundry business.
我們近期宣布與 Fortinet 在其安全處理器上的合作,是本季我們 ASIC 策略向前邁出的重要一步。展望未來,我很期待看到全新的 Intel 成形。我們正以更快的速度、更強的問責,以及更以客戶為中心的方式運作。雖然前方仍有大量工作要做,但我們的優先事項很清楚:運用我們的 x86 運算事業基礎來強化產品領導力,並將 Intel Foundry 打造成世界級的晶圓與封裝代工業務。
Intel is uniquely positioned to benefit from the overwhelming demand for compute as the entire industry continue a rapid and sustained buildout of compute infrastructure. We are the only company that can design, manufacturing, build the entire range of computing solutions from general-purpose, traditional CPUs and GPUs to more purpose-built AIs and CPUs optimized for agentic AI as we increasingly move from compute dominant by system on chip towards system in package.
隨著整個產業持續快速且長期地擴建運算基礎設施,Intel 具備獨特優勢,可受惠於龐大的運算需求。我們是唯一能夠設計、製造並打造全系列運算解決方案的公司,涵蓋通用、傳統的 CPU 與 GPU,到更具目的性的 AI 與針對代理式 AI(agentic AI)最佳化的 CPU;同時,隨著我們逐步從以 SoC(系統單晶片)為主轉向 SiP(系統級封裝),這一趨勢也愈發明顯。
Our advanced packaging and wafer foundry capabilities become increasingly vital assets. Our strategy is clear, and pace of execution is accelerating. Opportunities in front of us are substantial. Our strategy is showing earlier results. And I'm confident that Intel is well positioned to help define the next era of computing.
我們的先進封裝與晶圓代工能力正成為愈來愈關鍵的資產。我們的策略很清楚,執行節奏正在加快。我們面前的機會相當可觀。我們的策略已展現初步成果。我有信心 Intel 已做好準備,協助定義下一個運算時代。
I want to thank our employees around the world for their focus, discipline, hard work every day. And also thanks our many customers, partners, and suppliers for their continued trust in Intel.
我要感謝全球員工每天的專注、紀律與辛勤付出。也感謝眾多客戶、合作夥伴與供應商持續對 Intel 的信任。
With that, let me turn the call over to Dave to walk through our financial results in more detail.
接下來,我把電話交給 Dave,請他更詳細說明我們的財務結果。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Lip-Bu. We delivered another strong quarter driven by robust demand and disciplined execution that resulted in upside to our supply. Second-quarter revenue was $16.1 billion, $1.8 billion above the midpoint of our guide. And collectively, our AI-driven businesses grew greater than 70% year over year, including record data center growth and contributed approximately 70% of revenue. It's important to note that despite exceeding our expectations for wafer outs in the quarter, strengthening demand continues to outstrip our growing supply.
謝謝你,Lip-Bu。在強勁需求與嚴謹執行的帶動下,我們再度交出亮眼的一季,並使供給表現優於預期。第二季營收為 161 億美元,較我們指引中點高出 18 億美元。整體而言,我們由 AI 驅動的業務年增超過 70%,其中包含創紀錄的資料中心成長,並貢獻約 70% 的營收。需要強調的是,儘管本季晶圓產出(wafer outs)超出我們預期,需求的增強仍持續超過我們逐步提升的供給。
Q2 non-GAAP gross margin was 41.8%, approximately 280 basis points better than guidance. The upside was driven by higher revenue, better yields, and higher ASPs due to mix and pricing actions. We delivered second-quarter non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.42 versus our guidance of $0.20 on higher revenue, stronger gross margins, and solid operating leverage.
第二季非 GAAP 毛利率為 41.8%,約較指引高出 280 個基點。優於預期主要來自更高的營收、更佳的良率,以及因產品組合與定價措施帶動的更高 ASP(平均銷售單價)。我們第二季非 GAAP 每股盈餘為 0.42 美元,高於指引的 0.20 美元,受惠於更高營收、更強毛利率與穩健的營運槓桿。
Q2 operating cash flow was $7 billion. And we exited the quarter in a strong liquidity position, including approximately $30 billion in cash and short-term investments. Our Q2 results reflect the ongoing progress in our operational transformation. We're moving faster, holding ourselves more accountable, and staying closer to our customers.
第二季營運現金流為 70 億美元。我們在本季末維持強勁的流動性部位,包括約 300 億美元的現金與短期投資。第二季結果反映我們在營運轉型上的持續進展。我們正加快速度、提高自我問責,並更貼近客戶。
Moving to segment results. CCPG revenue was $8.9 billion, up 15% sequentially and better than our expectations. The client's hand continued to hold up well despite broad component constraints and price inflation. Our AIPC revenue grew 26% sequentially and now represents two-thirds of our client revenue mix. In addition, we saw solid performance in our edge deployments, now representing roughly 10% of CCPG revenue.
接著看各事業群表現。CCPG 營收為 89 億美元,季增 15%,且優於我們預期。儘管整體零組件供應受限與價格通膨,客戶端需求仍持續表現穩健。我們的 AI PC(AIPC)營收季增 26%,目前已占客戶端營收組合的三分之二。此外,我們在邊緣部署方面也看到穩健表現,目前約占 CCPG 營收的 10%。
Operating profit for CCPG was $2.3 billion, 26% of revenue, and down approximately $173 million quarter over quarter due to inventory charges taken to optimize our factory network to overall customer demand across client and server.
CCPG 的營業利益為 23 億美元,占營收 26%,較上季減少約 1.73 億美元,主要因我們為使工廠網路更貼合客戶端與伺服器端的整體需求而提列的庫存費用。
Our client group has now brought 18A to full scale with 400-plus designs for Series 3 across consumer and commercial. During a period of inflationary pressures, CCPG brought Core Series 3 to market at the ideal time on its A-stepping to provide cost optimized mainstream compute capabilities. Our integrated Arc Graphics solution continues to see strong market adoption, with 40-plus Arc integrated graphics designs across creator, workstation, commercial, and gaming targeted designs. Building on our success in gaming notebooks in Q2, CCPG also introduced Intel Arc G-series processors, a new family of products designed for next-generation handheld gaming systems, an additional vector for growth.
我們的客戶端事業群現已將 18A 擴至全面量產規模,針對消費與商用的 Series 3 已有超過 400 個設計。在通膨壓力期間,CCPG 於其 A-stepping 的理想時點將 Core Series 3 推向市場,以提供成本最佳化的主流運算能力。我們整合式 Arc Graphics 解決方案持續獲得強勁市場採用,已在創作者、工作站、商用與遊戲等目標設計中,累計超過 40 個 Arc 整合式顯示設計。延續我們在第二季遊戲筆電的成功,CCPG 也推出 Intel Arc G 系列處理器,這是一個為下一代掌上型遊戲系統打造的新產品家族,帶來額外的成長向量。
On the commercial side, activations for our market-leading vPro manageability software have surged 1,500% over the last four quarters, underpinning that manageability and enhanced security are critical must-haves in the agentic workplace. We expect enterprise adoption of AI to be a long-term tailwind for CCPG, but our AI-driven market prospects don't stop there as the edge and physical AI opportunity is likely to at least match the client TAM over time. CCPG showcased this growing opportunity with 130 Series 3 design wins for Edge AI applications, including brain and control deployments for robotics.
在商用端,我們市場領先的 vPro 可管理性軟體之啟用量在過去四個季度激增 1,500%,凸顯在代理式工作場域中,可管理性與強化安全性是關鍵必備要素。我們預期企業採用 AI 將成為 CCPG 的長期順風,但由 AI 驅動的市場前景不僅止於此;隨時間推進,邊緣與實體 AI 的機會很可能至少可與客戶端 TAM 相匹配。CCPG 以 130 個 Series 3 的邊緣 AI 應用設計勝出展示了這項成長機會,其中包括用於機器人的「大腦」與控制部署。
DCAI revenue was $6.3 billion, an increase of 24% sequentially and 59% year over year, meaningfully ahead of expectations. The result was driven by strong demand across hyperscale and enterprise. We also continue to see strong momentum in our purpose-built silicon product line, with revenue up roughly 20% sequentially and nearly tripling year over year. Operating profit for DCAI was $2.5 billion, 40% of revenue, and up approximately $1 billion quarter over quarter on higher revenue, improved product margins, and lower operating expenses.
DCAI 營收為 63 億美元,季增 24%、年增 59%,顯著優於預期。此結果由超大規模(hyperscale)與企業端的強勁需求所帶動。我們也持續看到目的型矽產品線的強勁動能,營收季增約 20%,且年增近 3 倍。DCAI 的營業利益為 25 億美元,占營收 40%,較上季增加約 10 億美元,受惠於更高營收、改善的產品毛利率與較低的營運費用。
Within the quarter, DCAI launched Xeon 6+, codenamed Clearwater Forest, our first server class product on 18A. The team announced rack-scale and disaggregated inference innovations with partners SambaNova and Foxconn. In addition, DCAI further enhanced our connectivity offerings by introducing new controller and adapter products supporting data center, enterprise, and telco applications, which scale from 10- to 200-gigabit Ethernet.
在本季度內,DCAI 推出了代號 Clearwater Forest 的 Xeon 6+,這是我們首款採用 18A 的伺服器級產品。團隊並與合作夥伴 SambaNova 與鴻海(Foxconn)共同宣布機櫃級(rack-scale)與解耦式(disaggregated)推論創新。此外,DCAI 也透過推出新的控制器與介面卡產品進一步強化我們的連線產品組合,支援資料中心、企業與電信應用,並可從 10GbE 擴展至 200GbE 乙太網路。
Turning to Intel Foundry. Revenue of $5.8 billion was up 6% sequentially on higher fab volumes driven by strong growth in Intel 18A, with output approximately 25% above target and up more than 50% quarter over quarter. External Foundry revenue was $293 million in the quarter. Intel Foundry operating loss in Q2 was $2.1 billion and $348 million better quarter over quarter as higher yields improve cycle times, and increased factory scale across Intel 4.3 and 18A drove improved wafer costs.
接著談 Intel Foundry。營收為 58 億美元,受惠於 Intel 18A 強勁成長帶動晶圓廠出貨量提升,較前一季成長 6%;其中產出約較目標高出 25%,且較上一季成長逾 50%。本季外部代工(External Foundry)營收為 2.93 億美元。Intel Foundry 第二季營運虧損為 21 億美元,較上一季改善 3.48 億美元;隨著良率提升改善週期時間,以及 Intel 4.3 與 18A 的工廠規模擴大帶動晶圓成本改善。
Progress on 18A has been very good. Intel Foundry has driven down the cost of our primary Panther Lake SKU by roughly 50% year-to-date and is on track for an additional 20% this year with further meaningful reductions planned in 2027.
18A 的進展非常良好。Intel Foundry 今年迄今已將我們主要 Panther Lake SKU 的成本大約降低 50%,並正按計畫在今年再額外降低 20%;同時也規劃於 2027 年進一步進行具意義的降成本。
Within the quarter, in addition to delivering output above our expectation, Intel Foundry also entered risk production for 18A-P and met critical milestones towards delivering the 0.9 PDK for Intel 14A in October. We stepped up investments in Q2 for Intel 14A to prepare for risk reduction in 2027 and committed high-volume ramps in 2028.
在本季度內,除了交付高於我們預期的產出外,Intel Foundry 也已進入 18A-P 的風險試產(risk production),並達成多項關鍵里程碑,以在 10 月交付 Intel 14A 的 0.9 PDK。我們在第二季加大對 Intel 14A 的投資,以為 2027 年的風險降低(risk reduction)做準備,並承諾於 2028 年進行高產量爬坡(high-volume ramps)。
Now turning to guidance. Looking ahead, customers continue to signal a strong and sustainable spending environment, driven by the unprecedented demand for AI compute. Industry-wide supply constraints across wafers, memory, and substrates remain the dominant challenge our customers are facing to support the AI infrastructure build out.
現在談展望指引。展望未來,客戶持續釋出強勁且可持續的支出環境訊號,主要由前所未有的 AI 算力需求所驅動。全產業在晶圓、記憶體與基板方面的供應限制,仍是客戶在支援 AI 基礎設施建置時面臨的主要挑戰。
Our wafer output across our major nodes exceeded expectations from 90 days ago, and Q3 quarter to date, 18A yields are trending ahead of targets set in March. Even with this strong execution and the positive trends as we enter the quarter, supply remains very tight, and the near-term linearity of our supply growth is more skewed towards the end of Q3 and into Q4, especially for servers.
我們在主要製程節點的晶圓產出高於 90 天前的預期;而在第三季截至目前,18A 良率走勢也優於 3 月設定的目標。即便執行表現強勁,且在進入本季時趨勢正向,供應仍非常吃緊;短期供應成長的線性分布更偏向第三季末與第四季,尤其是在伺服器方面。
From an end-market perspective, we expect PC consumption to be sub-seasonal in the second half of the year and down low double-digits percent for all of 2026, impacted by rising memory prices and constraints. This is in line with industry peers and third-party estimates. This is in line with industry peers and third-party estimates. At the same time, improving supply, a strengthening product portfolio, and encouraging tailwinds for edge deployments provide us with some positive offsets.
從終端市場角度來看,我們預期今年下半年 PC 消費將低於季節性水準,且 2026 全年將下滑低雙位數百分比,主要受記憶體價格上漲與供應限制影響。這與同業與第三方估計一致。這與同業與第三方估計一致。同時,供應改善、產品組合增強,以及邊緣部署的利多趨勢,將為我們帶來一些正向抵銷。
Our outlook for server CPU demand has improved again since our last earnings report, and we're forecasting strong double-digit unit growth for the industry this year and next, with momentum extending into 2028. Taken together, we're guiding Q3 revenue to a range of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion. At the midpoint of $16.3 billion, we forecast gross margin of 42%, a tax rate of 11%, and EPS of $0.38, all on a non-GAAP basis.
自上次財報以來,我們對伺服器 CPU 需求的展望再度改善;我們預估產業今年與明年將有強勁的雙位數出貨量成長,且動能可延續至 2028 年。綜合而言,我們對第三季營收指引為 158 億至 168 億美元。以中位數 163 億美元計算,我們預估毛利率為 42%、稅率為 11%、每股盈餘(EPS)為 0.38 美元,以上皆為非 GAAP 基礎。
We continue to tightly manage non-GAAP operating expenses to roughly $16.5 billion for the year. And we expect non-controlling interest or NCI to net to approximately $250 million in each of Q3 and Q4 of this year and be approximately $1.1 billion for '27 and '28 on the GAAP basis.
我們持續嚴格管理非 GAAP 營運費用,全年約為 165 億美元。我們也預期非控制權益(NCI)在今年第三季與第四季各約為 2.5 億美元的淨額,並在 GAAP 基礎下於 2027 與 2028 年約為 11 億美元。
Turning to CapEx. Due to strong customer demand signals, we're raising our outlook for 2026 and now expect our CapEx to be more than $20 billion, which is up significantly versus our expectations entering the year. We're also aggressively locking in tool purchase orders from our vendors, accelerating our clean room buildouts, and actively securing supply of substrates and memory.
接著談資本支出(CapEx)。由於客戶需求訊號強勁,我們上調 2026 年展望,現在預期 CapEx 將超過 200 億美元,較年初預期顯著提高。我們也正積極向供應商鎖定設備採購訂單、加速無塵室建置,並主動確保基板與記憶體供應。
As a result, we're forecasting 2027 capital expenditures to be significantly above the 2026 levels, with the vast majority spent across our US network. In fact, as look back from 2021 through 2026, our total capital spending in tools and space in the US is approaching $100 billion, significantly higher than any other semiconductor company over that timeframe. We remain committed to tightly matching our expenditures with customer demand and remain financially disciplined as we capture the growth ahead.
因此,我們預估 2027 年資本支出將顯著高於 2026 年水準,其中絕大部分將投入於我們在美國的網路布局。事實上,回顧 2021 至 2026 年,我們在美國用於設備與空間的總資本支出正接近 1,000 億美元,在該期間顯著高於任何其他半導體公司。我們仍致力於讓支出與客戶需求緊密匹配,並在掌握未來成長的同時維持財務紀律。
In closing, Q2 was another strong quarter financially and operationally. The client TAM is unfolding as expected, and server CPU demand continues to far outpace available supply. Emerging markets in physical AI, purpose-built silicon, advanced packaging, and external wafers are each multi-billion-dollar annual revenue opportunities for us in the not-too-distant future. I'm confident in our ability to leverage our broad IP portfolio to solve our customers' most pressing needs and drive long-term value for our shareholders.
最後總結,第二季在財務與營運面皆是另一個強勁的季度。客戶端 TAM 的發展如預期展開,而伺服器 CPU 需求持續遠遠超過可供應的產能。在實體 AI、客製化晶片(purpose-built silicon)、先進封裝與外部晶圓等新興市場方面,對我們而言在不久的將來各自都將是每年數十億美元營收機會。我對我們運用廣泛的 IP 產品組合來解決客戶最迫切需求、並為股東創造長期價值的能力充滿信心。
With that, I'll turn it over to John to start the Q&A.
接下來我把時間交給 John,開始問答(Q&A)。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, Dave. As a reminder, please ask one question and a brief follow-up in order to allow us to accommodate as many callers as possible. With that, Jonathan, can we take the first question?
謝謝你,Dave。提醒各位,為了讓我們能接聽盡可能多的來電者,請提出一個問題並簡短追問一次。那麼,Jonathan,我們可以開始第一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Ben Reitzes, Melius Research.
(接線員指示)Ben Reitzes,Melius Research。
Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst
Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst
I wanted to ask about the CapEx increase by about $3 billion this year and significantly next. What does that imply for your foundry customers? Does it mean that you've received some part orders for 14A or 18A-P? And then what does it mean for packaging, if you could delineate between the two? Thanks.
我想詢問今年資本支出增加約 30 億美元、且明年大幅增加的部分。這對你們的代工客戶意味著什麼?是否代表你們已收到一些 14A 或 18A-P 的部分訂單?另外,若可以的話,這對封裝意味著什麼,能否把兩者區分說明?謝謝。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Okay. So let me take the second one first. The CapEx is fairly broad-based. It's going to include advanced packaging. As Lip-Bu talked about, we're pretty excited about our prospects on EMIB-T. And so, we will be investing in that. That said, the cost of a fab for the front end is much more expensive than a packaging facility, so it will be skewed towards the front end. But nevertheless, both of them will be important to us.
好的。我先回答第二個問題。這次 CapEx 的涵蓋面相當廣。其中會包含先進封裝。正如 Lip-Bu 提到的,我們對 EMIB-T 的前景感到相當振奮。因此,我們會在這方面投資。不過,前段製程(front end)的晶圓廠成本遠高於封裝設施,因此資本支出會更偏向前段。但無論如何,兩者對我們都很重要。
As it relates to customers, I would just say that this increased investment is a signal of our confidence in customers across all of our business units. We feel very confident, particularly in places where we've gotten long-term agreements that we now have the signal to be able to kind of forecast out what the outlook looks like for the next few years in terms of demand, and we're putting forth the capacity in anticipation of that across all of our businesses.
至於客戶方面,我只能說這項增加的投資反映了我們對各事業群客戶的信心。我們非常有信心,特別是在我們已取得長期協議的領域;這讓我們能夠獲得訊號,進而大致推估未來幾年的需求展望,因此我們在各項業務上提前配置產能以因應。
That said, as I said in the prepared remarks, we remain very disciplined around spending. And Lip-Bu, I think, has beaten out into us that we will put CapEx in place when we feel very confident we can generate a very good return on it. These fabs that we're building, obviously, initially from a cash flow perspective or net cash out. That's why you see the CapEx going up next year.
話雖如此,正如我在事先準備的發言中所說,我們在支出方面仍然非常自律。而且我想 Lip-Bu 已經反覆強調,我們只有在非常有信心能夠產生非常好的投資報酬時,才會投入資本支出(CapEx)。我們正在興建的這些晶圓廠,顯然在初期從現金流的角度來看,會是現金流出或淨現金流出。這就是為什麼你會看到明年的資本支出上升。
But over time, they generate significant return. And particularly now as we migrate towards a model where we keep these processes on longer, the returns are quite significant. In fact, we're seeing that in Intel 10, 7 today, given the length of time we had that process in place.
但隨著時間推移,它們會帶來可觀的報酬。尤其是現在我們正轉向一種模式,讓這些製程維持更長的生命週期,報酬相當顯著。事實上,我們今天在 Intel 10、7 上就看到了這一點,因為我們讓該製程維持了很長一段時間。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Ben, do you have a quick follow-up?
Ben,你有簡短的追問嗎?
Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst
Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst
Yeah, hi. Thanks. Your competitor today talked about raising the CPU TAM by 2030 to $220 billion with a CAGR, I believe, of 45% or something really great. Can you comment on that? Are you seeing the same thing? And what do you think of either that number or the growth rate and your ability to fulfill it? Thanks.
有的,嗨。謝謝。你們的競爭對手今天談到,預計到 2030 年把 CPU 的 TAM 提高到 2,200 億美元,並且以我記得大約 45% 或其他非常亮眼的 CAGR 成長。你能評論一下嗎?你們看到的是同樣的情況嗎?以及你怎麼看那個數字或成長率,還有你們滿足該需求的能力?謝謝。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. I mean, without putting a number out there, I mean, we obviously recognize that this is a strong market. It's going to grow significantly. Lip-Bu's talked in the past about the ratio of CPU to GPU going up, and we now believe we're almost in parity at this point and could eventually even skew more to CPUs on a unit basis. So I think this market is great.
是的。我的意思是,不先拋出一個具體數字,我們顯然認知到這是一個強勁的市場。它將會顯著成長。Lip-Bu 過去談過 CPU 對 GPU 的比重會上升,而我們現在相信在這個時間點幾乎已經接近平衡,最終甚至可能在出貨單位的基礎上更偏向 CPU。所以我認為這個市場非常好。
We think we have a strong position in the market, an opportunity to capture a significant share of that market. It's going to be a big number, whether anybody can actually predict exactly the number and pinpoint the number, I'm not sure they can. But from all the inputs we're getting from our customers in terms of the level of spend and also the long-term agreements we put in place and the visibility, we've gotten we feel like the growth is going to be significant.
我們認為我們在市場上有很強的定位,也有機會取得其中相當可觀的市占。這會是一個很大的數字;至於是否有人能精準預測並鎖定到底是多少,我不確定他們能不能。但從我們客戶端給到的所有訊息來看,包括支出水準,以及我們所簽訂的長期協議與可視性,我們覺得成長將會非常顯著。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Thanks, Ben. Jonathan, can we have the next question, please?
謝謝你,Ben。Jonathan,請給我們下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley 的 Joe Moore。
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Joseph Moore - Analyst
I guess following up on the CPU comment. What do you think happens to your market share in the server space? You have fabs now, which would seem to be an advantage? Do you think that helps to gain share this year? And then as you think about the next five years, your competition versus both AMD and also versus ARM, just how are you guys thinking about the prospects for regaining lost share?
我想延續剛才關於 CPU 的評論。你認為你們在伺服器領域的市占會怎麼變化?你們現在有晶圓廠,這看起來應該是個優勢?你覺得這有助於今年提升市占嗎?另外,展望未來五年,你們同時面對 AMD 以及 ARM 的競爭,你們如何看待重新奪回流失市占的前景?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Maybe I can start first and then Dave can chip in. So I think clearly, it's a good question. I think I mentioned earlier, the demand is quite strong. And then in terms of Agentic AI and influence, the ratio part CPU and GPU. And so, I think the demand is strong. And I think the challenge right now is more how to grow our supply and to meet the customer requirement.
是的。也許我先開始,然後 Dave 再補充。我覺得這確實是個好問題。我先前提到過,需求相當強勁。另外就 Agentic AI 與其影響而言,CPU 與 GPU 的比重也在變化。所以,我認為需求很強。而我認為目前的挑戰更多在於如何擴大我們的供給,以滿足客戶需求。
But saying that, clearly, on the server side, data center side, I think we have a strong roadmap. We have Clearwater Forest, Diamond Rapid, and also Coral Rapid with the SMT involved. So I think we continue working on improving the competitiveness against our competitor. And I think, clearly, it's very important to drive the improvement in the single thread and also multi-trading, and multi-trading will become in the Coral Rapid. And so, I think all the above, we have been really driving that.
不過話說回來,在伺服器端、資料中心端,我認為我們有很強的產品藍圖。我們有 Clearwater Forest、Diamond Rapid,還有導入 SMT 的 Coral Rapid。所以我認為我們會持續努力提升相對於競爭對手的競爭力。而且我認為,推動單執行緒以及多執行緒的提升非常重要;多執行緒將會在 Coral Rapid 上實現。因此,我們一直在推動上述各項。
I think regarding your second question in terms of the ARM, clearly, it's a great partner for us, and we have a strong relationship there. And Rene and Mars are a good friend of mine. And we really focus on not just the ARM-based CPU and also on the ASIC foundry side. They can be a great partner and customer, and especially in the IP front.
至於你第二個問題、關於 ARM,我們很清楚它是我們很棒的合作夥伴,而且我們在那裡有很強的合作關係。Rene 和 Mars 也是我的好朋友。我們的重點不僅在於 ARM 架構的 CPU,也在於 ASIC 代工這一端。他們可以是很棒的合作夥伴與客戶,特別是在 IP 方面。
And so, all in all, I think we compete quite well. We have a strong product roadmap. Some areas, we are still behind, but we are catching up very fast, and we try to leapfrog some of the CPU architecture and we are putting major effort into it, and that time will tell.
總體而言,我認為我們競爭得相當不錯。我們有很強的產品路線圖。有些領域我們仍然落後,但我們追趕得非常快;我們也嘗試在某些 CPU 架構上實現跨代超越(leapfrog),並投入大量資源,最終成效就交由時間來驗證。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Joe, do you have a quick follow-up question?
Joe,你有簡短的追問嗎?
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Yeah, thank you. Just separately on the CapEx, is there still a sort of net versus gross aspect to that? Or is that -- are you kind of more clear on that? And then how do you think about how you're apportioning that between internal and foundry? Is there a point where you'll be able to delineate that for us? How much is for external customers?
有的,謝謝。另外關於資本支出(CapEx),是否仍然存在某種淨額(net)與總額(gross)的差異?還是說你們對這點已經更清楚了?然後你們如何思考在內部與代工之間分配這些支出?是否有一個時間點你們能為我們清楚劃分?有多少是用於外部客戶?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, there is a gross to net. At this point now, most of the gross to net is AMIC, or the investment tax credit. It's running in the kind of single-digit -- low-single-digit billions right now, although as we progress, I think we'll start to see that become bigger in terms of chunkiness.
是的,確實存在總額到淨額(gross to net)。目前大多數的總額到淨額差異來自 AMIC,也就是投資稅額抵免(investment tax credit)。目前大約是在個位數十億美元、偏低個位數十億的水準;不過隨著我們推進,我想我們會開始看到它在金額上變得更大、且呈現更不均勻(chunkiness)。
At the end of the day, it's a timing thing. But at the end of the day, we're getting $0.35 on the dollar back from the investment tax credit on everything we invest in the US. And as I said in my prepared remarks, the lion's share of our capital spend is devoted to the US. So it should be pretty significant.
歸根結底,這是時間點的問題。但最終,我們在美國的所有投資,都能透過投資稅額抵免拿回每 1 美元約 0.35 美元。而且如我在事先準備的發言中所說,我們資本支出的絕大部分都投入在美國。所以這應該會相當可觀。
But like I said, there will be a delay factor because we've got to build the factory and then we can start claiming tax credits on the factory and then we have to get it -- once we're putting the tools in, it's got to get all the way to production ready before we can claim any sort of credits on the tools. And so -- and then of course, you have to file it with the IRS. So there's a bit of a delay from the time you spend at the time you get it back. But yes, there is a gross to net.
但如我所說,會有延遲因素,因為我們必須先把工廠蓋好,之後才能開始就工廠申請稅額抵免;接著當我們開始導入設備時,設備必須一路到達可量產(production ready)的狀態,我們才能就設備申請任何形式的抵免。然後當然,你還得向 IRS 申報。所以從你花錢到你拿回來之間會有一些時間差。但沒錯,確實存在總額到淨額。
I think from an investment perspective, I'm not sure we look at it exactly that way, and we really look at how many wafer starts we want in a given node, and we invest to the wafer starts we're looking for on the front end. And we have a point of view based on all the demand drivers within the business and what that number looks like, and that's what we're putting in the purchase recs with our suppliers to be able to meet those expectations. And of course, we remain nimble as we get more information and we progress.
我認為從投資的角度,我不確定我們是否完全用那種方式來看;我們更著眼於在某個節點(node)上希望達到多少晶圓開工量(wafer starts),並在前段依照我們想要的開工量來投資。我們會基於業務內所有需求驅動因素,對那個數字形成觀點,並據此向供應商提出採購需求(purchase recs),以滿足那些預期。當然,隨著我們獲得更多資訊並持續推進,我們也會保持彈性、快速調整。
On the packaging side, we are already getting significant backlog. So we already know we need to ramp that up, and that's partly our own internal manufacturing facilities, but we also need to procure substrates from vendors, and there's some requirements there in terms of putting money up in advance of getting the substrates. So we're making those investments probably more quickly right now to get ourselves ready for that.
在封裝方面,我們已經出現相當可觀的積壓訂單。所以我們已經知道需要把產能拉上來,其中一部分來自我們自有的內部製造設施,但我們也需要向供應商採購基板,而在這方面有一些要求,例如在取得基板之前需要先行預付資金。因此,我們目前可能正更快速地進行這些投資,讓自己為此做好準備。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, Joe. Jonathan, can we have the next question, please?
謝謝你,Joe。Jonathan,可以請下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.
Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
I wanted to talk about clients. I think everybody kind of had an inkling that data center was going to be pretty strong. I was surprised at the client strength, and I know you talked about demand holding up pretty well. I know you're ramping pans on some of the new products.
我想談談客戶端(client)。我想大家多少都有預期資料中心會相當強勁。但我對客戶端的強勁表現感到意外,而且我知道你提到需求維持得相當不錯。我也知道你正在把一些新產品的產能拉升。
But I guess, was it all pricing that drove that revenue strength? Or was there something else going on in -- I guess, if you could maybe comment on what your expectations are for clients in the second half relative to an end market that sounds like it's going to be worse than typical as we move into Q3 and Q4.
但我想問的是,帶動營收強勁的是否完全是定價因素?還是還有其他因素在發生——也就是說,如果可以的話,能否談談你們對下半年客戶端的預期;相較於終端市場的情況,聽起來在進入 Q3 和 Q4 時會比典型狀況更差。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. I mean, client obviously exceeded expectations. I would say it was largely ASP, of which some of that was mix related. Some of that was our own like-for-like changes in ASPs, where we thought we had seen some inflation on our cost and needed to pass that on to the end customer.
是的。我的意思是,客戶端確實明顯超出預期。我會說主要是 ASP(平均銷售單價),其中一部分與產品組合(mix)有關。另外一部分則是我們自身同品項(like-for-like)的 ASP 調整;我們認為成本端出現了一些通膨,因此需要把這部分轉嫁給終端客戶。
When you look at it year over year, it's definitely down that market. It had a really good 2025 because of the windows refresh. So it was coming off a little bit as it relates to that. And then, of course, memory in terms of cost and even availability, I think, has caused that market to be a little softer. But we just kind of skewed the mix to the higher end, and that helped a lot in terms of ASPs and helped it perform.
若以年對年來看,那個市場確實是下滑的。2025 年因為 Windows 換機潮而表現非常好。所以在這方面的基期效應下,確實有所回落。此外,記憶體在成本甚至供應可得性方面,我認為也讓該市場稍微疲弱一些。但我們只是把產品組合偏向較高階,這在 ASP 上幫助很大,也讓表現更好。
I'd say as we look into next quarter, probably on a revenue basis, it's going to be kind of flattish for us. Overall, CCPG is likely to be up a bit, but I think it will be driven by good growth on the edge and client will be flattish. Underlying that, the market is softer. I mean, they are -- I think that market is struggling with the memory dynamics in the marketplace. So we think it will be down in the quarter, but because they have been living relatively tight with inventory on CPUs, we likely would see some build in CPUs for Q3.
我會說,展望下一季,從營收角度看,對我們而言大概會是持平。整體 CCPG 可能會小幅成長,但我認為主要會由邊緣(edge)的良好成長所帶動,而客戶端會持平。在此之下,市場其實更疲弱。我的意思是——我認為該市場正受到市場上記憶體供需動態的影響而承壓。所以我們認為該市場在本季會下滑,但由於他們在 CPU 庫存上一直維持相對緊縮,我們可能會看到為了 Q3 而進行一些 CPU 的庫存回補。
And then Q4, I think we'll start to experience that in our own business and be soft. The good news for us is we need it because we need the CPUs for the data center side. We can't fulfill the demand as Lip-Bu was mentioning. So we'll pivot as much of the production as possible over to CPUs and data centers to try to do our best to catch up to what is a pretty significant difference between our ability to supply and the demand out there.
接著到 Q4,我認為我們自己的業務也會開始感受到影響並轉弱。對我們來說的好消息是,我們其實需要這樣,因為資料中心端需要 CPU。正如 Lip-Bu 提到的,我們無法滿足需求。因此我們會盡可能把更多產能轉向 CPU 與資料中心,盡力追趕目前我們供應能力與外部需求之間相當顯著的落差。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Stacy, do you have a quick follow-up?
Stacy,你有簡短的追問嗎?
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
I do. Thank you. You talked about the inventory charges in clients. I guess, what were those? And how big were they?
有的。謝謝。你提到客戶端的庫存費用(inventory charges)。我想問,那些是什麼?規模有多大?
And if I look at that, you're kind of guiding gross margins sort of flattish in the next quarter. If I take out the charges, does that imply that the gross margin guidance is actually down sequentially?
另外,如果我看你們的指引,你們下一季的毛利率大致持平。如果把那些費用剔除,是否意味著毛利率指引其實是季對季下滑?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Okay. So let me unpack it. So just -- sorry, Stacy, you're talking about inventory on our balance sheet for client? Or are you talking about --?
好的。我來拆解一下。Stacy,先確認一下——抱歉,你指的是我們資產負債表上、客戶端相關的庫存嗎?還是你指的是——?
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
No, no, no. You talked about inventory charges that he margins in the client is down.
不是不是。你提到有庫存費用,導致客戶端的毛利率下降。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Oh, yeah, yeah, sorry. Okay. Yeah, we had some products where they weren't fully completed from a match set perspective. And it just made better economic sense for us to try to pivot more to some of our other products and not complete them given the challenges around Matt. So given it was somewhat stranded inventory, we wrote that down.
喔,是的,是的,抱歉。好的。是這樣,我們有一些產品從配套(match set)的角度來看並未完全完成。在 Matt 相關挑戰的情況下,對我們而言,把資源轉向其他一些產品、而不去完成那些產品,在經濟上更合理。因此,由於那算是某種程度上被卡住的庫存(stranded inventory),我們就把它減記了。
And you're right, we are guiding flat quarter to quarter. So obviously, we get a lift from not expecting to have that write-down in the second quarter. The offset of that is even though like Panther Lake and Granite are doing better in terms of their cost quarter to quarter, they're also becoming a really significant part of the mix, and they're still below the corporate average because they're still relatively early in their life cycle. So that's weighing the margins down a little bit on the offset to the lift we get in terms of the reserves and why we think things will be flat.
而你說得對,我們的指引是季對季持平。所以很明顯,因為我們預期第二季不會再有那樣的減記,因此會帶來一些提振。但抵銷因素是,即便像 Panther Lake 和 Granite 在成本上季對季有改善,它們也正在成為產品組合中非常顯著的一部分;而且由於仍處於生命週期相對早期,它們的毛利率仍低於公司平均。因此這會在一定程度上拉低毛利率,抵銷掉我們在準備金回沖/減少方面所得到的提振,這也是我們認為整體會持平的原因。
But eventually, both of those things turn into a tailwind. As yields improve on 18A further, we do expect margins to improve on Panther Lake, and they will be above the corporate average, and that will help start lifting the margins there. And obviously, we're keenly focused on improving gross margins over time.
但最終,這兩件事都會轉為順風。隨著 18A 的良率進一步改善,我們確實預期 Panther Lake 的毛利率會提升,並且會高於公司平均,這將有助於開始拉升那邊的毛利率。而且很明顯,我們也非常專注於隨時間推進改善毛利率。
I would say while there's a lot of puts and takes in gross margins, our number one goal this year, which everyone in finance here can attest to because I was a dog with a bone on this, was to get gross margins comfortably into the 40s in every quarter. And I think the team did a really good job getting there, at least for the first two quarters, and our outlook for Q3 would suggest the same. So our goal is to be solidly in that, and then we can kind of pivot from there and look to improve the gross margins off of that base.
我會說,雖然毛利率有很多拉鋸因素(puts and takes),但我們今年的第一目標——在座所有財務同仁都可以作證,因為我對這件事非常執著——就是要讓每一季的毛利率都能穩穩地進入 40% 多。我認為團隊在達成這點上做得非常好,至少在前兩季是如此,而我們對 Q3 的展望也顯示同樣的情況。所以我們的目標是穩固地站在那個區間,然後再以此為基礎,逐步推動毛利率進一步改善。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Thanks, Stacy. Jonathan, can we have the next question, please?
謝謝,Stacy。Jonathan,可以請下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Timothy Arcuri, UBS.
UBS 的 Timothy Arcuri。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Dave, you made a comment that there's a lot of capacity coming online towards the end of this quarter. So I guess that implies a pretty big step-up in revenue for Q4. If I assume that you're still kind of undershipping the market, I think you implied you're undershipping at least last quarter by like more than $1 billion.
Dave,你提到在本季末會有大量產能上線。所以我想這意味著 Q4 的營收會有相當大的跳升。如果我假設你們仍然某種程度上是對市場供貨不足(undershipping),我想你暗示至少上一季你們供貨不足超過 10 億美元。
So if in September, you're undershipping by a similar amount, then it would seem to suggest that Q4 is going to be up pretty big. Is that the right way to think about it? Can you just provide some puts and takes around that?
所以如果到 9 月你們仍然以類似的幅度供貨不足,那看起來就表示 Q4 會大幅成長。這樣理解對嗎?你能否就其中的正負因素(puts and takes)提供一些說明?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. I mean, obviously, we only guide one quarter out, which will be my standard response. That said, yes, I mean, of course, if we are able to start to see inventory improve or supply improve towards the end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter, we would expect a lift from that. I would point out that while things will improve, we will not catch up. We will be behind in the fourth quarter.
是的。我的意思是,很明顯,我們只對外提供往後一個季度的指引,這會是我的標準回答。話雖如此,是的,我的意思是,當然,如果我們能在第三季末到第四季期間開始看到庫存改善或供應改善,我們預期會因此帶來提振。我想指出的是,即使情況會改善,我們也不會追上進度。我們在第四季仍會落後。
I think the team, internally, it's tight with wafers internally. I wouldn't dismiss that. But they have done a very good job trying to meet demand and upside us, upside Lip-Bu and I a bit in terms of what they've been able to accomplish. But our supply is a combination of the wafers that we manufacture internally plus advanced packaging like substrates. We've got T-glass, we have memory. And so procuring all of that is also a bit of a choke point for us. And in fact, I'd say in some of those areas are probably our most challenged parts of our supply chain.
我認為團隊在內部晶圓方面確實很吃緊。我不會忽視這點。但他們在努力滿足需求方面做得非常好,而且在他們能達成的成果上,確實有點超出我們的預期,也超出我和 Lip-Bu 的預期。不過,我們的供應是由我們內部製造的晶圓,加上先進封裝(例如載板)等組合而成。我們有 T-glass,也有記憶體。因此,採購所有這些也對我們形成一些瓶頸。事實上,我會說其中有些領域可能是我們供應鏈中最具挑戰的部分。
So we're working to improve that while front-end wafers can be a little bit more linear in terms of our improvement, some of those are a bit chunkier. And so, we start to see some of the logjam break towards the end of the third quarter, which is why we're more flattish this quarter, but see upside in the fourth quarter.
所以我們正努力改善這些;相較之下,前段晶圓的改善可能會比較線性一些,但其中有些項目則比較不連續、會一段一段地改善。因此,我們開始在第三季末看到部分塞車狀況鬆動,這也是為什麼我們本季表現較為持平,但在第四季看到上行空間。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Tim, do you have a follow-up question?
Tim,你有追問嗎?
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
I do, yeah. Dave, so the year-over-year drop through on gross margin was pretty good in March and June. Based on the guidance, that kind of falls back to the low-50s, which is sort of within your 40% to 60% that you've talked about for a drop-through.
有的。Dave,所以 3 月和 6 月的毛利率在年對年下滑時的承接表現(drop-through)相當不錯。根據指引,那個數字看起來會回落到 50% 出頭,這大致落在你提過的 40% 到 60% 的 drop-through 區間內。
Is that still the right way to think about it? I mean, I'm just trying to see if you can give us some puts and takes into next year. Thanks.
這仍然是正確的思考方式嗎?我的意思是,我只是想看看你能否提供一些明年可能的利多與利空因素。謝謝。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. I mean, longer term, I think we'd expect that to be somewhat the fall-through, somewhere in the 40% to 60% range. I mean, every quarter has got unique dynamics to them that affect whether you're at the low end of that range or at the high end of the range or at the midpoint. But I think it's a good -- relatively good rule of thumb for us.
是的。我的意思是,長期來看,我想我們預期大致會是那樣的承接(fall-through),大約落在 40% 到 60% 的區間。我的意思是,每一季都有其獨特的動態,會影響你是在區間的低端、高端或中間。但我認為這對我們而言是個相當——相對而言相當好的經驗法則。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, Tim. Jonathan, can we have the next question?
謝謝你,Tim。Jonathan,我們可以進行下一題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.
Vivek Arya,美國銀行證券(Bank of America Securities)。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Lip-Bu, you mentioned increased confidence in engaging with the external foundry customers. And I'm curious when will that confidence be backed by actual customer announcements?
Lip-Bu,你提到對與外部晶圓代工客戶合作的信心提升。我想請問,這份信心何時會由實際的客戶公告來佐證?
And then related to that, I think you are planning to raise CapEx. How much should we be expecting a CapEx increase for next year? And how much of that CapEx increase is for external customers versus just expanding capacity for your internal needs?
另外相關地,我想你們計畫提高資本支出(CapEx)。我們應該預期明年的 CapEx 會增加多少?而這些 CapEx 增加中,有多少是為外部客戶、而不是僅僅為了擴充你們內部需求的產能?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, thank you so much for the question. I think I will address the confidence that I have, and then I think Dave will talk about the CapEx increase. So first of all, I think the -- for the 18A, I think we have this 18A-P. This is in the risk production now and will be ready before the end of this year. Clearly, we see a 5% enhanced performance and then 18A.
是的,非常感謝你的問題。我先回應我所說的信心,接著我想 Dave 會談 CapEx 的增加。首先,我想——就 18A 而言,我們有 18A-P。目前已進入風險試產(risk production),並會在今年底前就緒。很明顯地,我們看到相較 18A 有 5% 的效能提升。
And then the 18A yield and the production, I think we're starting to see strong. And then in terms of Panther Lake, we can see that in the ramping and the volume.
接著,18A 的良率與量產方面,我想我們開始看到強勁的表現。至於 Panther Lake,我們也能在爬坡與出貨量上看到進展。
But let's focus on the 14A. 14A, PDK 0.5 complete, and 0.9 for 14A is on track for October. And that's a very important milestone. And I see the yield for 256 SRAM and the defect density, the performance ahead of the schedule that we put a very tough schedule for my team, they all met and see that. And then risk production for 14A will be second half of 2027, and then the commit volume production in 2028.
但讓我們把焦點放在 14A。14A 的 PDK 0.5 已完成,而 14A 的 0.9 版本也按計畫在 10 月推出。這是一個非常重要的里程碑。我看到 256 SRAM 的良率、缺陷密度與效能都領先我們所設定的時程;我對團隊訂了非常嚴苛的時程,他們都達成了,我也看到了。接著,14A 的風險試產會在 2027 年下半年,而承諾的量產(commit volume production)在 2028 年。
So I think all in all, the engagement, the customer, the feedback have been very positive, tremendous demand for our own products, and also external foundry customer engagement that give me the confidence. The moment they're starting to see the 0.9 PDK the yield, they're starting to get excited about what kind of product they want to run that and what make how much capacity we can provide them.
所以整體而言,互動、客戶與回饋都非常正面;我們自家產品的需求非常強勁,同時外部晶圓代工客戶的互動也讓我更有信心。當他們開始看到 0.9 PDK 的良率時,他們就開始對想在上面跑什麼樣的產品感到興奮,也會思考我們能提供多少產能。
So those are very positive signs that they are really serious about going forward. And that's why, as I mentioned earlier, I don't put CapEx unless I see the yield performance, the IP is ready to serve the customer, and also customer engagement, the level of engagement I see, then Dave and I were starting to put CapEx to work. So, Dave?
所以這些都是非常正面的訊號,顯示他們確實很認真要往前推進。也因此,如我先前提到的,除非我看到良率與效能、IP 已準備好服務客戶,以及我所看到的客戶互動程度,我才會投入 CapEx;在那之後,Dave 和我才開始讓 CapEx 發揮作用。所以,Dave?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. Maybe it might make sense to start with '26 to just unpack CapEx, so it's clear. We invested a lot in space over the last few years. So we are in a very good place in terms of space. There is still obviously a little investment to facilitize some of the factories, but it's relatively modest.
是的。也許從 2026 年開始拆解 CapEx 會比較有意義,讓大家更清楚。過去幾年我們在廠房空間上投資很多。因此,就空間而言,我們目前處於非常好的位置。當然仍需要一些投資來完成部分工廠的設施化(facilitize),但相對而言規模不大。
So we're really where all of the CapEx or most of the CapEx dollars are going to at this point is tooling. We'll increase tooling in '26 by 40% relative to '25. So we're investing a significant amount in tooling. And it's where you might expect it's Intel 3, it will be 18A-P.
所以我們現在 CapEx 的去向——所有或大部分的 CapEx 資金——主要都會用在設備(tooling)上。我們在 2026 年的設備投資將較 2025 年增加 40%。因此我們會在設備上投入相當可觀的金額。而投資方向也如你所預期:Intel 3,以及 18A-P。
I purposely didn't mention a number for 2027 because we're still working out the exact details of what number we'll land at. And typically, in this industry, you released that number really at the very beginning of the year. But I did want to give investors at least a line of sight to expect that the number will be up. But you'll just have to bear with me, I think we need another quarter or two to really solidify the number.
我刻意沒有提 2027 年的數字,因為我們仍在釐清最終會落在哪個水準。而且通常在這個產業,你會在年初才公布那個數字。但我確實想讓投資人至少有個可見度,知道這個數字會上升。不過你得先容我一下,我想我們還需要再一到兩個季度,才能真正把數字定下來。
And then where it's going to, as I said, it's going to both. We're investing for all of our business units, both internally and externally. And we take a holistic view of what our wafer demand will look like from all of those customers, and we build capacity that is aligned with that view.
至於資金會用在哪裡,如我所說,兩邊都會。我們會為所有事業群投資,包含內部與外部。我們會以整體角度看待來自所有這些客戶的晶圓需求會是什麼樣子,並據此建置與該觀點一致的產能。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Vivek, do you have a quick follow-up?
Vivek,你有沒有簡短的追問?
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Yes. Thank you, John. So the follow-up question, Dave, is on the balance sheet. So as you are planning these investments for the back half of the year and into next year, how are you thinking about the balance sheet? Do you think that the success you are seeing in your product business on the CPU side, do you think that is enough to kind of fund a lot of these investments? Or will something else be required? Thank you.
有的。謝謝你,John。所以追問的問題,Dave,是關於資產負債表。當你在規劃今年下半年以及明年的這些投資時,你是如何看待資產負債表的?你認為你們在 CPU 端產品業務所看到的成功,是否足以在某種程度上為這些投資提供資金?還是需要其他資金來源?謝謝。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. It's a good question, Vivek. I mean, we -- obviously, we feel like we're in a really good place from a balance sheet perspective. We have over $30 billion of cash. We have a $10 billion revolver. So we've got $40 billion of liquidity. That enabled us to delever, which we felt was important to keep us solidly in investment-grade territory, which we wanted to do.
是的。這是個好問題,Vivek。我的意思是,我們——很明顯地——從資產負債表的角度來看,我們覺得自己處在非常好的位置。我們有超過 300 億美元的現金。我們有 100 億美元的循環信貸額度(revolver)。所以我們有 400 億美元的流動性。這讓我們得以去槓桿,我們認為這很重要,能讓我們穩穩維持在投資等級的範圍內,這也是我們想做到的。
Obviously, the fact that revenue and profitability and EBITDA are all expanding helps a lot in terms of the cash flow that throws off to the business. And additionally, we have, I don't know, roughly, call it, $10 billion of what I call non-core assets that can still be monetized on the balance sheet. And although we're not anxious in any stretch to do anything there, that's available to us in the event that we need it.
當然,營收、獲利能力以及 EBITDA 都在擴張,這對於業務所產生的現金流有很大幫助。此外,我們還有——我不知道,大概——約 100 億美元我所稱的非核心資產,仍可在資產負債表上進行變現。雖然我們完全不急著在那方面做任何動作,但如果有需要,這對我們而言是可用的。
And we have seen, by the way, our customers willing to invest with us. And we've had prepays from customers that has enabled us to unlock capacity that's helped us. That said, if we're super successful, which we're driving to, we may need to tap the capital markets to drive some more investment. And stay tuned if we need to do that; we'll certainly keep the shareholders apprised.
另外,順帶一提,我們也看到客戶願意與我們一起投資。我們已經收到客戶的預付款,這讓我們得以解鎖產能,並對我們有所幫助。話雖如此,如果我們非常成功——這正是我們努力的方向——我們可能需要進入資本市場,以推動更多投資。如果我們需要這麼做,敬請關注;我們一定會讓股東隨時掌握最新情況。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, Vivek. Jonathan, can we have the next question, please?
謝謝你,Vivek。Jonathan,請給我們下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
CJ Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.
CJ Muse,Cantor Fitzgerald。
CJ Muse - Analyst
CJ Muse - Analyst
I guess, maybe a follow-up to a prior question. And Dave, I know you don't want to guide out more than a quarter, but curious how we should be thinking about shape of the server kind of revenue recovery here as you bring on capacity both this year and next. And as part of that, how should we be thinking both from a unit and an ASP perspective as we go through the second half of '26 and into '27?
我想,可能是對先前問題的一個追問。Dave,我知道你不想提供超過一季的展望,但我很好奇,當你在今年與明年逐步增加產能時,我們應該如何看待伺服器營收復甦的走勢(shape)。作為其中一部分,當我們進入 2026 年下半年並延伸到 2027 年時,從出貨量(unit)與 ASP 的角度,我們應該如何思考?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. I mean, I think obviously, we're driving -- well, maybe step back and say, all of our server wafers are procured internally for the most part. Some of the ASIC stuff isn't. But for the most part, it's all procured. And we are investing heavily in expanding the wafer starts in our key nodes.
是的。我的意思是,我想很明顯地,我們正在推動——嗯,也許先退一步說,我們的伺服器晶圓大多數是內部採購的。有些 ASIC 的部分不是。但大致上,都是已經採購到位。而且我們正在大幅投資,擴大我們關鍵製程節點的晶圓開工量(wafer starts)。
In particular, the most important node for us on servers is Intel 3 because that's our node to produce Granite Rapids. And we're seeing tremendous demand there. In fact, as strong as demand is across all of our products within data center, Granite Rapids is extremely tight because the reception there has been fantastic. So we are building capacity there over time. It will be a little bit chunky, but I think in general, we have a pretty good ramp of Intel 3 planned for the rest of this year and next year.
特別是,對我們伺服器而言最重要的節點是 Intel 3,因為那是我們用來生產 Granite Rapids 的節點。我們看到那裡有非常強勁的需求。事實上,即使在資料中心所有產品的需求都很強的情況下,Granite Rapids 仍然非常吃緊,因為市場反應非常好。所以我們會隨時間逐步建立那裡的產能。這會有一點不均勻(chunky),但整體而言,我們對今年剩餘時間以及明年的 Intel 3 擴產爬坡(ramp)有相當不錯的規劃。
The challenge, as I said, is it's not just the front end that we have to expand capacity, and we also have to expand capacity on the back end. That then gets into areas that are tight like substrates. And so, we're working to expand that. I think they did a good job in the first half of the year getting more capacity, but more work to be done to drive that to the levels that we would need.
我說過的挑戰是,我們不只是要擴充前段(front end)的產能,也必須擴充後段(back end)的產能。這就會牽涉到一些吃緊的環節,例如載板(substrates)。因此,我們正在努力擴充那部分。我認為他們在今年上半年在增加產能方面做得不錯,但要把它推升到我們所需要的水準,還有更多工作要做。
I think when we're talking about the market in general, we're talking about it from a units perspective, we think the growth rate on a unit basis looks quite good. Obviously, the units are getting more weighted average core counts.
我想,當我們談到整體市場時,若從出貨量的角度來看,我們認為以出貨量為基礎的成長率看起來相當不錯。很明顯地,出貨的產品正朝向更高的加權平均核心數(core counts)。
And generally, this market is priced on an ASP per core basis. So as you get more cores, you easily get more ASP uplift. And so, that will definitely be a component of the revenue growth in this business and gives us some real confidence that this is going to be well north of a double-digit CAGR for us in terms of growth rate over the next few years.
而一般而言,這個市場是以每核心的 ASP 來定價。所以當你有更多核心時,就很容易帶來 ASP 的提升。因此,這肯定會成為這項業務營收成長的一個組成部分,也讓我們很有信心:在未來幾年,我們的成長率將遠高於雙位數的年複合成長率(CAGR)。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
CJ, do you have a follow-up question?
CJ,你有追問嗎?
CJ Muse - Analyst
CJ Muse - Analyst
I do, John. Thanks. I guess going back to CapEx, and I know you don't want to guide today for next year, but I'm curious if there's a framework in your mind as you balance meeting customer needs as well as your desired free cash flow goals.
有的,John。謝謝。我想回到資本支出(CapEx),我知道你今天不想對明年提供指引,但我很好奇,當你在平衡滿足客戶需求以及你們期望的自由現金流目標時,你心中是否有一個框架?
Is there anything kind of we should interpret around that to help us as we build our model to think what the appropriate CapEx is within that? Or no, if you've got the signed kind of contracts with customers, you're just going to build it.
在我們建立模型、思考適當的 CapEx 水準時,有沒有什麼我們應該從中解讀的訊號?或者不是——如果你們已經和客戶簽了那種合約,你們就會直接把產能建起來?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I mean, no, we're going to be more thoughtful around it. I would say, just if you look at the straight business and look at what we think we can do from a cash flow from operations perspective, just the base business, look at what CapEx, even if we step up CapEx investment and the offsets that we get from AMIC, our cash flow actually looks pretty good. What we are likely to have to make investments in the back end as well, particularly with third parties, that could be a drag to cash flow next year and make getting it to a positive number, a little bit more challenged. But that said, all of the investment we're making has tremendous ROI.
我的意思是,不,我們會更審慎地思考。我會說,如果你看純粹的本業,看看我們認為在營運現金流(cash flow from operations)方面能做到什麼——就本業而言——再看 CapEx,即便我們提高 CapEx 投資,以及我們從 AMIC 得到的抵減(offsets),我們的現金流其實看起來相當不錯。我們很可能也必須在後段做投資,特別是與第三方合作的部分,這可能會在明年拖累現金流,讓要把它做到轉正變得更具挑戰。但話說回來,我們所做的所有投資都有非常可觀的投資報酬(ROI)。
So I think as long as we feel confident in the growth rate, confident in what we think we can do in terms of pricing and cost structure for those products and we know that when we make investments in these nodes, the lifetime of these nodes is fairly significant and almost always drives a good ROIC, we'll make the investment. We're just going to be very careful around making bets ahead of customer commitments. I think that's the most significant change with Lip-Bu, until we really know that we've got the customers, we don't want to put significant amount of capital.
所以我認為,只要我們對成長率有信心、對我們在定價與成本結構方面能做到的事情有信心,而且我們知道當我們在這些節點上投資時,這些節點的使用壽命相當長,幾乎總是能帶來良好的投資資本報酬率(ROIC),我們就會進行投資。只是我們會非常小心,不會在客戶承諾之前就先押注。我認為這是 Lip-Bu 上任後最重要的改變:在我們真正確定有客戶之前,我們不想投入大量資本。
And you can read that now inversely given our confidence around next year that we must have pretty significant confidence in our customers or we wouldn't be putting the POs in place today.
而你也可以反向解讀:鑑於我們對明年的信心,我們對客戶一定有相當高的把握,否則我們今天不會就把採購訂單(POs)下到位。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
CJ, thank you very much. Jonathan, we've got time for one last question.
CJ,非常感謝。Jonathan,我們還有時間再問最後一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Aaron Rakers, Wells Fargo.
Wells Fargo 的 Aaron Rakers。
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
I guess the first question is on the ASIC business. I guess based on what was disclosed last quarter, it's about a $1.2 billion run rate business, now growing well for the company. How do we think about the diversity of that business?
我想第一個問題是關於 ASIC 業務。我想根據上季披露的資訊,這大約是一個年化營收約 12 億美元的業務規模,目前對公司而言成長得相當不錯。我們該如何看待這項業務的多元性?
And just -- you've announced Fortinet. I'm just curious of how you're thinking about the growth profile of that business? And maybe also with that, the margin profile of ASICs as they expand.
另外,你們剛宣布了 Fortinet。我很好奇你們如何看待那項業務的成長輪廓?以及或許也談談,隨著 ASIC 擴張,其毛利率/利潤率輪廓如何。
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Let me start first. I think, first of all, this is a massive opportunity. I think potentially it's over $100 billion TAM market. And we have a unique opportunity to offer beside our advanced design capability using our CPU, XPU, and also we have a strong IP portfolio and we also have the advanced packaging. They are very unique in terms of radical integration and also the layer that needed. So they can really drive the leadership and a lot of new technology. AI really need this packaging technology, plus our advanced silicon process technology that combined gives a lot of opportunity for a lot of purpose still silicon that a lot of company needed.
是的。我先從這裡開始。我認為,首先,這是一個巨大的機會。我認為潛在上這可能是一個超過 1,000 億美元的 TAM 市場。而我們有獨特的機會:除了我們先進的設計能力之外,還能運用我們的 CPU、XPU;同時我們也有強大的 IP 產品組合,並且具備先進封裝能力。在激進整合以及所需的層級(layer)方面,這些都非常獨特。因此它們確實能推動領先地位與許多新技術。AI 真的需要這種封裝技術,再加上我們先進的矽製程技術,兩者結合帶來大量機會,能滿足許多公司對各種用途矽(purpose-built silicon)的需求。
And so, I think one example is recently we announced with the security ASIC business with the Fortinet, and we clearly -- that we really drive the next-generation security processor with a higher performance. And of course, we all know about the Intel IPO. They're providing to some of the hyperscale, and that is tremendous opportunity. So I think I mentioned it's a 3x increasing in terms of year-to-year growth. So I think it's a great opportunity for that.
因此,我想其中一個例子是我們最近宣布與 Fortinet 的安全 ASIC 業務合作,而且我們很明確地——我們確實在推動下一代安全處理器,提供更高的效能。當然,我們也都知道 Intel IPO。他們正在供應給部分超大規模客戶(hyperscale),那是極大的機會。所以我想我提到過,就年對年成長而言是 3 倍提升。因此我認為這是一個很好的機會。
And then the other part, Dave, do you want to chip in?
接著另一部分,Dave,你要不要補充一下?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
What was the question?
問題是什麼?
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Growth rates of ASICs.
ASIC 的成長率。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Growth rates of ASICs. I mean, I would say that today, we're probably running at about a $2 billion run rate or at least approaching a $2 billion run rate for that business. We think in the not-too-distant future, we'll be at a $4 billion run rate for that business. So I think that probably gives you good sense. And we think that, like we mentioned the $100 billion TAM, we think we deserve a good chunk of that given our IP portfolio and what we bring to bear. So stay tuned.
ASIC 的成長率。我的意思是,我會說目前我們大概正以約 20 億美元的年化營收規模在運行,或至少正接近 20 億美元的年化規模。我們認為在不久的將來,這項業務會達到 40 億美元的年化營收規模。所以我想這應該能讓你有個不錯的概念。而且我們認為,如同我們提到的 1,000 億美元 TAM,我們憑藉我們的 IP 產品組合以及我們能帶來的能力,理應能取得其中相當可觀的一部分。敬請期待。
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Aaron, do you have a quick follow-up question?
Aaron,你有一個簡短的追問嗎?
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Yeah, I do. Thanks, John. There's a lot of things going on in memory and just memory hierarchy and architecture shifts and stuff. And there's been some recent news about Intel's own development work. I think there's a technology called Z-angle memory; there's a cross-batch memory.
有的。謝謝,John。記憶體方面有很多事情正在發生,包括記憶體階層、架構轉變等等。而且最近也有一些關於 Intel 自身研發工作的消息。我想有一種技術叫做 Z-angle memory;還有 cross-batch memory。
So I'm curious, as you strategically look at the role that memory plays in these architectures and scaling compute, does Intel serve a bigger role in that? Is there internal developments and even opportunities in memory over time?
所以我很好奇,當你們從策略角度看待記憶體在這些架構與運算擴展中的角色時,Intel 是否會在其中扮演更大的角色?是否有內部研發,甚至隨時間推進在記憶體方面的機會?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, good question. I think a couple of things. First of all, the memory become the big supply constraint challenge, and we're collaborating with the three big memory vendors. That's very important to serve our customer as our number one priority.
是的,好問題。我想有幾點。首先,記憶體已成為重大的供應限制挑戰,而我們正與三大記憶體供應商合作。這對於以服務客戶、把客戶作為我們第一優先事項而言非常重要。
The next thing, as you will recall, Intel have rich history in memory. And recently, we hired Seok-Hee Lee to join us. He used to be the CEO of SK Hynix. And clearly, memory, it become the bottleneck, a lot of AI infrastructure and pinpoint for customer. And we're also looking at how other areas that we can integrate, compute and memory, and also how the stacking and then how can we use the memory more utilization more efficiently. So I think there's a lot of areas we are working on. Stay tuned. And we will work on that, and we'll keep you guys posted.
接下來,如你所知,Intel 在記憶體方面有著豐富的歷史。而最近我們延攬了 Seok-Hee Lee 加入。他曾是 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)的執行長。而且很明顯地,記憶體已成為許多 AI 基礎設施的瓶頸,也是客戶的痛點。我們也在研究還有哪些領域可以把運算與記憶體整合起來,以及如何進行堆疊(stacking),並且如何更有效率地提升記憶體的利用率。所以我認為我們正在推進很多方向的工作。敬請期待。我們會持續推動,也會隨時向各位更新。
With that, I think my closing remarks. With that, I want to thank everyone for joining us today. We made good progress this quarter on our journey to transform Intel, the new Intel, but we still have a lot to do ahead of us. And looking forward to seeing many of you throughout the quarter and provide additional update in October.
那麼,我想我做個結語。在此,我要感謝各位今天加入我們。本季在我們轉型 Intel、打造「新 Intel」的旅程上取得了不錯的進展,但前方仍有許多工作要做。也期待在本季期間與各位中的許多人見面,並在 10 月提供更多更新。
Operator
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.
各位女士、先生,感謝您參與今天的會議。本次議程到此結束。您現在可以斷線。祝您有美好的一天。