使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Intel Corporation's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call.
感謝您的支持,歡迎參加英特爾公司 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。
(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.
(操作員指示)提醒一下,今天的節目正在錄製中。
And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, John Pitzer, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
現在我想介紹今天節目的主持人、投資者關係副總裁約翰皮策 (John Pitzer)。請繼續。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
Thank you, Jonathan, and good afternoon to everyone joining us today. By now, you should have received a copy of the Q3 earnings release and earnings presentation. Both of which are available on our investor relations website, intc.com. For those joining us online today, the earnings presentation is also available in our webcast window.
謝謝你,喬納森,祝今天參加我們會議的各位下午好。到目前為止,您應該已經收到了第三季收益報告和收益簡報的副本。這兩份報告均可在我們的投資者關係網站 intc.com 上查閱。對於今天在線上觀看的投資者,收益報告也可在我們的網路直播窗口觀看。
I am joined today by our CEO, Lip-Bu Tan; and by our CFO, David Zinsner. Lip-Bu will open with comments on our third quarter results as well as provide an update on our progress on implementing strategic priorities. Dave will then discuss our overall financial results, including fourth quarter guidance, before we transition to answer your questions.
今天與我一同出席的還有我們的執行長陳立武 (Lip-Bu Tan) 和財務長 David Zinsner。Lip-Bu 將首先評論我們的第三季業績,並提供我們實施策略重點的最新進展。在我們回答您的問題之前,戴夫將討論我們的整體財務業績,包括第四季度指引。
Before we begin, please note that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it and, as such, are subject to various risks and uncertainties. It also contains references to non-GAAP financial measures that we believe provide useful information to our investors.
在我們開始之前,請注意,今天的討論包含基於我們目前所見環境的前瞻性陳述,因此受各種風險和不確定性的影響。它還包含對非公認會計準則財務指標的引用,我們認為這些指標可以為我們的投資者提供有用的信息。
Our earnings release, most recent annual report on Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC provide more information on specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. They also provide additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations, where appropriate, to our corresponding GAAP financial measures.
我們的收益報告、最新的 10-K 表年度報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件提供了更多有關可能導致實際結果與我們的預期存在重大差異的具體風險因素的資訊。它們還提供了有關我們的非 GAAP 財務指標的附加信息,包括在適當情況下與我們相應的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。
With that, let me turn things over to Lip-Bu.
說完這些,讓我把話題交給 Lip-Bu。
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, John, and let me add my welcome this afternoon. we delivered a solid Q3 with revenue, gross margin, earnings per share above guidance. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of improved execution delivered by the underwriting growth in our core markets and the steady progress we are making to rebuild the company. While we are still a long way to go we are taking the right steps to create sustainable shareholder value. We significantly improved our cash position and liquidity in Q3.
謝謝你,約翰,請容許我今天下午也歡迎你。我們第三季表現穩健,營收、毛利率和每股盈餘都高於預期。這標誌著我們核心市場的承保成長和公司重建的穩定進展帶來了連續第四個季度的執行改善。雖然我們還有很長的路要走,但我們正在採取正確的措施來創造可持續的股東價值。我們在第三季顯著改善了現金狀況和流動性。
A key focus for me since becoming CEO in March. This includes accelerated funding from the United States government, important investments from NVIDIA and SoftBank Group and monetizing portion of Altera and Mobileye. The action we took to strengthen the balance sheet, give us greater operational flexibility and position us well to continue to execute our strategy with confidence. In particular, I'm honored by the trust and confident President Trump and Secretary Lutnick had place in me. Their support highlights Intel strategic role as the only US-based semiconductor company with leading-edge logic, R&D and manufacturing.
自從三月擔任執行長以來,這一直是我關注的重點。其中包括美國政府的加速資助、NVIDIA 和軟銀集團的重要投資以及 Altera 和 Mobileye 的部分貨幣化。我們採取的行動是為了加強資產負債表,賦予我們更大的營運彈性,並使我們能夠繼續滿懷信心地執行我們的策略。我尤其榮幸川普總統和盧特尼克部長對我的信任和信心。他們的支持凸顯了英特爾作為唯一一家擁有領先邏輯、研發和製造技術的美國半導體公司的戰略作用。
We are fully committed to advancing the Trump administration's vision to restoring semiconductor production and proudly welcome the US government as an essential partners in our efforts. We also made tangible progress to improve our execution this quarter.
我們全力致力於推動川普政府恢復半導體生產的願景,並自豪地歡迎美國政府成為我們努力的重要合作夥伴。本季度,我們在提高執行力方面也取得了實際進展。
We remain on track, not only to rightsize the company by year-end, but also to evolve the talent mix, reestablish the engineering-first mindset and optimize the executive and management levels across the organization. We are seeing a significant increase in day-to-day energy and collaborations as our employees return to office after a substandard period of remote and hybrid work.
我們仍按計畫進行,不僅要在年底前調整公司規模,還要改善人才結構,重建工程優先的思維方式,並優化整個組織的執行和管理階層。當我們的員工在一段不太正常的遠距和混合工作之後重返辦公室時,我們看到日常精力和協作顯著增加。
Let me dive deeper into our underlying business trend. Over the course of my career, I have had privilege of contributing multiple ways of disruptive innovation. But I can't recall a time when I have been more excited about the future of computing and opportunities in front of us. We are still in the early stage of AI revolution, and I believe Intel can and will play a much more significant role as we transform the company.
讓我更深入地探討一下我們潛在的業務趨勢。在我的職業生涯中,我有幸為多種顛覆性創新做出了貢獻。但我記不起有哪個時候我像現在這樣對計算的未來和我們面前的機會感到如此興奮。我們仍處於人工智慧革命的早期階段,我相信英特爾能夠並將在我們轉型公司的過程中發揮更重要的作用。
Let's start with our core x86 franchise, which continues to play a critical role in the age of AI. AI is clearly accelerating demand for new compute architectures, hardware models and algorithms. At the same time is fueling renewed growth of traditional compute as the underwriting data and the resulting insights continue to rely heavily on our existing products from cloud to edge.
讓我們從核心 x86 系列開始,它在人工智慧時代繼續發揮關鍵作用。人工智慧顯然正在加速對新運算架構、硬體模型和演算法的需求。同時,由於承保數據和由此產生的洞察力繼續嚴重依賴我們從雲端到邊緣的現有產品,傳統運算也因此迎來了新的成長。
AI is driving near-term upside to our business, and it is a strong foundation for sustainable long-term growth as we execute. In addition, with unmatched compatibility, security and flexibility by virtue of being the largest installed base of general purpose compute x86 is well positioned to power the hybrid compute environment that AI workloads demand, particularly for inference edge workloads and Agentic system.
人工智慧正在推動我們業務的短期上漲,並且是我們執行可持續長期成長的堅實基礎。此外,憑藉無與倫比的兼容性、安全性和靈活性,憑藉其作為通用計算的最大安裝基礎,x86 能夠很好地為 AI 工作負載所需的混合計算環境提供支持,特別是對於推理邊緣工作負載和 Agentic 系統。
It is a great starting point from which to rebuild our market position to revitalizing and rejuvenating the x86 and positioning for the new era of computing with great products and partnerships. Our collaboration with NVIDIA is a prime example. We are joining forces to create a new class of products and experience, spanning multiple generation that accelerate the adoption of AI for the hyperscale, enterprise and consumer markets.
這是一個很好的起點,我們可以從這裡重建市場地位,重振和復興 x86,並透過優秀的產品和合作夥伴關係為新運算時代做好準備。我們與 NVIDIA 的合作就是一個很好的例子。我們正攜手創造跨越多代的全新產品和體驗,加速超大規模、企業和消費者市場對人工智慧的採用。
By connecting our architectures to NVIDIA NVLink we combined Intel CPU and x86 leadership with NVIDIA unmatched AI and accelerated computing strength, unlocking innovative solutions that will deliver better customer experience and provide a big hit for Intel in the leading AI platform of tomorrow. We need to continue to build on this momentum and capitalize on our position by improving our engineering and design execution.
透過將我們的架構連接到 NVIDIA NVLink,我們將英特爾 CPU 和 x86 的領先地位與 NVIDIA 無與倫比的 AI 和加速運算實力相結合,解鎖創新解決方案,提供更好的客戶體驗,並為英特爾在未來領先的 AI 平台上帶來巨大成功。我們需要繼續保持這一勢頭,並透過改進我們的工程和設計執行來充分利用我們的地位。
This includes hiring promoting top architecture talent as well as reimagining our core road map to ensure it is the best-in-class features. To accelerate this effort, we recently created the Central Engineering Group, which will unify our horizontal engineering functions to drive leverage across foundational IP development, test chip design, EDA tools, and design platforms. This new structure will eliminate duplications, improve time to decision-making and enhance coherence across all product development.
這包括聘請頂尖的建築人才以及重新構想我們的核心路線圖,以確保它是一流的功能。為了加快這項努力,我們最近成立了中央工程集團,該集團將統一我們的橫向工程功能,以推動基礎 IP 開發、測試晶片設計、EDA 工具和設計平台之間的平衡。這種新結構將消除重複,縮短決策時間,並增強所有產品開發的一致性。
In addition and just as important, the group will spearhead the build-out of our new ASIC and design service business to deliver purpose-built silicon for a broad range of external customers. This will not only extend the reach of our core x86 IP, but also leverage our design strength to deliver an array of solutions from general purpose to fixed function computing.
此外,同樣重要的是,該集團將帶頭拓展我們的新 ASIC 和設計服務業務,為廣泛的外部客戶提供專用矽片。這不僅將擴展我們核心 x86 IP 的覆蓋範圍,而且還將利用我們的設計優勢來提供從通用到固定功能計算的一系列解決方案。
In client, we are on track to launch our first Panther Lake SKU by year-end, followed by additional SKUs in the first half of next year. This will help us to solidify our strong position in the notebook segment across both consumer and enterprise with cost-optimized products across our full PC stack from our entry-level offering to our mainstream core family, up through our highest-performing core ultra family. In high-end desktop, competition remains intense, but we are making steady progress.
在客戶端方面,我們預計在年底前推出首款 Panther Lake SKU,然後在明年上半年推出更多 SKU。這將幫助我們鞏固我們在消費者和企業筆記型電腦領域的強勢地位,透過從入門級產品到主流核心系列,再到性能最高的核心超級系列,我們在整個 PC 堆疊中提供成本優化的產品。在高階桌上型電腦領域,競爭依然激烈,但我們正在穩步前進。
Arrow Lake shipments have increased throughout the year. and our next-generation Nova Lake product, new architecture and software upgrades to further strengthen our offerings, particularly in the PC gaming space. With this lineup, we believe we will have the strongest PC portfolio in yields.
Arrow Lake 的出貨量全年都在增加。我們的下一代 Nova Lake 產品、新架構和軟體升級將進一步加強我們的產品,特別是在 PC 遊戲領域。憑藉這一陣容,我們相信我們將擁有收益率最強的 PC 產品組合。
In traditional service, AI workloads are driving both refresh of the installed base and capacity expansion, fueled by rapid growth in tokenization the increased demand around data storage and processing and a need to elevate power and space constraints. We remain the AI hit notes of choice with strong demand for granite rapids, including instances across every major hyperscalers.
在傳統服務中,人工智慧工作負載正在推動已安裝基礎的更新和容量擴展,這得益於標記化的快速增長、數據存儲和處理需求的增加以及提升電力和空間限制的需求。我們仍然是 AI 熱門音符的首選,對花崗岩急流的需求強勁,包括所有主要超大規模企業的實例。
We are listening to what customers need and strong performance per ward and TCO are top of mind. As I shared with you last quarter, the key part, including improving our multi-trading capabilities as we close existing gap and work to regain shares.
我們傾聽客戶的需求,並將每個病房的強勁表現和整體擁有成本 (TCO) 放在首位。正如我在上個季度與大家分享的那樣,關鍵部分包括提高我們的多種交易能力,縮小現有差距並努力重新獲得份額。
Finally, on our AI accelerator strategy, I continue to believe that we can play a meaningful role in developing compute platforms for emerging influence workloads driven by Agentic AI and physical AI. This will be a far larger market than that for AI training workloads. We will work to position Intel as a compute platform of choice for AI inference and we look to partner with a raise of incumbents as well as emerging companies that are defining this new compute paradigm.
最後,關於我們的 AI 加速器策略,我仍然相信我們可以在開發由 Agentic AI 和實體 AI 驅動的新興影響工作負載的運算平台方面發揮有意義的作用。這將是一個比人工智慧訓練工作負載更大的市場。我們將努力將英特爾定位為人工智慧推理的首選運算平台,並期待與許多現有企業以及正在定義這項新運算範式的新興公司合作。
This is a multiyear initiative and we will strike partnership when we can deliver true differentiation and market-leading products. In the near term, we will continue delivering AI capabilities to Xeon, AIPC, Arc and our open soft West. Looking ahead, we plan to launch successive generation of inference-optimized GPUs on the annual cadence that features enhanced memory and bandwidth to meet enterprise needs.
這是一項多年計劃,當我們能夠提供真正的差異化和市場領先的產品時,我們將達成合作夥伴關係。短期內,我們將繼續為 Xeon、AIPC、Arc 和我們的開放軟體 West 提供 AI 功能。展望未來,我們計劃每年推出新一代推理優化 GPU,其特點是增強記憶體和頻寬,以滿足企業需求。
Turning to Intel Foundry, our momentum continues. We are making steady progress on Intel 18A. We are on track to bring Panther Lake to market this year. Intel 18A use are progressing at a predictable rate and Fab52 in Arizona, which is dedicated to high-volume manufacturing is now fully operational. In addition, we are advancing our work on Intel 18AP, and we continue to hit our PDK milestones.
談到英特爾代工,我們的勢頭仍在繼續。我們在英特爾 18A 方面正在穩步取得進展。我們計劃今年將 Panther Lake 推向市場。英特爾 18A 的使用正在以可預測的速度進展,位於亞利桑那州的專門用於大批量製造的 Fab52 現已全面投入運作。此外,我們正在推進英特爾 18AP 的工作,並繼續實現我們的 PDK 里程碑。
Our Intel 18A family is the foundation for at least next three generation of client and server products. I will work with US government within the secure and grit and other committed customers. It is a critical note that will drive wafer volumes well into the next decade, and generate a healthy return on our investment.
我們的英特爾 18A 系列是至少未來三代客戶端和伺服器產品的基礎。我將與美國政府以及其他忠誠的客戶進行安全、堅韌的合作。這是一個至關重要的因素,它將推動未來十年晶圓產量的成長,並為我們的投資帶來豐厚的回報。
On Intel 14A, the team continued to focus on technology definition, transistor architecture, process flow, design enablement and foundation IP. We remain active, engaged with potential external customers and are encouraged by the earlier feedback which help us to drive and inform our decisions.
在英特爾 14A 上,團隊繼續專注於技術定義、電晶體架構、製程、設計支援和基礎 IP。我們保持活躍,與潛在的外部客戶接觸,並受到早期回饋的鼓舞,這有助於我們推動和指導我們的決策。
Lastly, our advanced packaging activities continue to progress well, especially in the area like EMIB and EMIB T, which we have two differentiations. Like our Intel products, my conviction in the market potential for Intel Foundry continue to grow. The rapid expansion of critical AI infrastructure is fueling unprecedented demand for wafer capacity and advanced packaging services that presents a substantial opportunity demanding multiple suppliers.
最後,我們的先進封裝活動持續進展順利,特別是在EMIB和EMIB T等領域,我們有兩個差異化。與我們的英特爾產品一樣,我對英特爾代工的市場潛力的信心不斷增長。關鍵人工智慧基礎設施的快速擴張正在推動對晶圓產能和先進封裝服務的空前需求,這為多家供應商帶來了巨大的機會。
Intel foundry is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this unprecedented demand as we execute. As I mentioned last quarter, our investment in foundry will be disciplined, and we will focus on capability and scalability, giving us flexibility to ramp quickly and we will only add capacity when we have committed external demand. Building a world-class foundry is a long-term effort founded on trust.
英特爾代工廠具有獨特的優勢,可以在我們執行的過程中利用這一前所未有的需求。正如我上個季度提到的,我們對代工的投資將嚴格控制,我們將專注於產能和可擴展性,使我們能夠靈活地快速提升產能,並且只有在有外部需求時我們才會增加產能。打造世界一流的鑄造廠是一項建立在信任基礎上的長期努力。
As a foundry, we need to ensure that our process can be easily used by a variety of customers, each with a unique way of building their own products. We must learn to delight our customers as they call on us to build wafers to meet all their needs for performance, yield, cost and schedule. This is only by doing this that they can rely on us as a true long-term partner to ensure their success. This requires a change of mindset that I'm driving across Intel Foundry as we position this business for long-term success.
作為一個代工廠,我們需要確保我們的工藝能夠被各種客戶輕鬆使用,每個客戶都有自己獨特的方式來建立自己的產品。當客戶要求我們製造晶圓來滿足他們對性能、產量、成本和進度的所有需求時,我們必須學會取悅他們。只有這樣,他們才能依靠我們作為真正的長期合作夥伴來確保他們的成功。這需要我推動整個英特爾代工企業轉變思維方式,因為我們要為這項業務的長期成功做好準備。
As we look ahead, my focus remains firmly on the long-term opportunity across every market we serve today and those we will enter tomorrow. Our strategy is crystallized around our unique strength and value proposition, supported by the accelerating and unprecedented demand for compute in the AI-driven economy. Our leadership continues to strengthen. Our culture is becoming more accountable, collaborative and execution-oriented. And my confidence in the future grow stronger every day. I look forward to keep you updated as we advance our journey.
展望未來,我的重點仍然放在我們今天服務的每個市場以及明天將進入的每個市場的長期機會上。我們的策略圍繞著我們獨特的優勢和價值主張而具體化,並得到人工智慧驅動型經濟中對計算的加速和前所未有的需求的支持。我們的領導力不斷加強。我們的文化變得更加負責、更具協作精神和更注重執行力。我對未來的信心也一天比一天強。我期待在我們前進的過程中向您通報最新情況。
I will now turn it over to Dave for detail on our current business trends and financials.
現在我將把有關我們當前業務趨勢和財務狀況的詳細資訊交給戴夫。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Lip-Bu. In Q3, we delivered the fourth consecutive quarter of revenue above our guidance, driven by continued strength in our core markets. Although we remain vigilant regarding macroeconomic volatility, customer purchasing behavior and inventory levels are healthy and industry supply has tightened materially. Furthermore, we are increasingly confident that the rapid adoption of AI is driving growth in traditional compute and reinforcing momentum across our businesses.
謝謝你,Lip-Bu。在第三季度,受核心市場持續強勁的推動,我們連續第四個季度的營收高於預期。儘管我們對宏觀經濟波動保持警惕,但客戶購買行為和庫存水準仍然健康,產業供應已大幅收緊。此外,我們越來越相信,人工智慧的快速應用正在推動傳統運算的成長,並增強我們各項業務的發展勢頭。
In client, we are five years post the COVID pull forward and are benefiting from the refresh of a larger installed base. Enterprises continue to migrate to Windows 11, and AIPC adoption is growing. In data center, the accelerating build-out of AI infrastructure is positive for server CPU demand from head nodes, inference, orchestration layers and storage. We are cautiously optimistic that the CPU TAM will continue to grow in 2026 even as we have work to do to improve our competitive position.
在客戶端,我們已經經歷了 COVID 爆發五年,並且受益於更大安裝基礎的更新。企業持續遷移到 Windows 11,AIPC 的採用率也不斷成長。在資料中心,人工智慧基礎架構的加速建置對來自頭節點、推理、編排層和儲存的伺服器 CPU 需求產生正面影響。儘管我們仍需努力提高我們的競爭地位,但我們謹慎樂觀地認為,CPU TAM 將在 2026 年繼續成長。
Third quarter revenue was $13.7 billion, coming in above the high end of our guidance range and up 6% sequentially. Capacity constraints, especially on Intel 10 and Intel 7 limited our ability to fully meet demand in Q3 for both data center and client products. Non-GAAP gross margin was 40%, 4 percentage points better than our guidance on higher revenue, a more favorable mix and lower inventory reserves, partially offset by higher volume of Lunar Lake and the early ramp of Intel 18A.
第三季營收為 137 億美元,高於我們預期範圍的高端,季增 6%。產能限制,尤其是英特爾 10 和英特爾 7 的限制,限制了我們完全滿足第三季資料中心和客戶端產品需求的能力。非公認會計準則毛利率為 40%,比我們預期的高出 4 個百分點,這得益於更高的收入、更有利的產品組合和更低的庫存儲備,但 Lunar Lake 的銷量增加和英特爾 18A 的早期增長部分抵消了這一影響。
We delivered third quarter earnings per share of $0.23 versus our guidance of breakeven EPS driven by higher revenue, stronger gross margins and continued cost discipline. Q3 operating cash flow was $2.5 billion with gross CapEx of $3 billion in the quarter, and positive adjusted free cash flow of $900 million.
我們第三季的每股盈餘為 0.23 美元,而我們的預期是每股盈虧平衡,這得益於更高的收入、更強的毛利率和持續的成本控制。第三季營運現金流為 25 億美元,本季總資本支出為 30 億美元,調整後自由現金流為 9 億美元。
One of our top priorities for 2025 was shoring up our balance sheet. To that end, we executed on deals to secure roughly $20 billion of cash, including three important strategic partnerships. We exited Q3 with $30.9 billion of cash and short-term investments. In Q3, we received $5.7 billion from the US government, $2 billion from SoftBank Group, $4.3 billion from the Altera closure and $900 million from the Mobileye stake sale.
我們 2025 年的首要任務之一是鞏固我們的資產負債表。為此,我們達成了多項交易,以確保獲得約 200 億美元的現金,其中包括三個重要的策略合作夥伴關係。我們在第三季結束時擁有 309 億美元的現金和短期投資。第三季度,我們從美國政府獲得了 57 億美元,從軟銀集團獲得了 20 億美元,從 Altera 關閉獲得了 43 億美元,從 Mobileye 股份出售獲得了 9 億美元。
We expect NVIDIA's $5 billion investment to close by the end of Q4. Finally, we repaid $4.3 billion of debt in the quarter and we will continue prioritizing deleveraging by paying maturities as they come due in 2026.
我們預計 NVIDIA 的 50 億美元投資將在第四季末完成。最後,我們在本季度償還了 43 億美元的債務,我們將繼續優先考慮去槓桿,支付 2026 年到期的債務。
Moving to segment results for Q3. Intel products revenue was $12.7 billion, up 7% sequentially and above our expectations across client and server. The team executed well to support upside in the quarter given the current tight capacity environment, which we expect to persist into 2026. We are working closely with customers to maximize our available output, including adjusting pricing and mix to shift demand towards products where we have supply and they have demand.
轉向第三季的分部業績。英特爾產品營收為 127 億美元,季增 7%,高於我們對客戶端和伺服器的預期。鑑於當前產能緊張的環境,該團隊表現良好,並支持了本季的上行,我們預計這種情況將持續到 2026 年。我們正在與客戶密切合作,以最大限度地提高我們的可用產量,包括調整價格和產品組合,將需求轉向我們有供應、他們有需求的產品。
CCG revenue was $8.5 billion, up 8% quarter-over-quarter and above our expectation due to a seasonally stronger TAM, Windows 11 driven refresh and a stronger pricing mix with the ramp of Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake.
CCG 收入為 85 億美元,環比增長 8%,高於我們的預期,這得益於季節性的 TAM 增長、Windows 11 驅動的更新以及 Lunar Lake 和 Arrow Lake 的推出帶來的更強勁的定價組合。
Within the quarter, CCG further advanced its relationship with Microsoft through a collaboration with Windows ML and the deep integration of Intel vPro manageability with Microsoft Intune enabling secure cloud connected fleet management for businesses of all sizes.
在本季度,CCG 透過與 Windows ML 的合作以及英特爾 vPro 可管理性與 Microsoft Intune 的深度集成,進一步加強了與微軟的關係,為各種規模的企業提供了安全的雲端連接車隊管理。
The team also met all key milestones in support of launching Core Ultra 3 co-named Panther Lake. We expect the client consumption TAM to approach 290 million units in 2025 and marking two straight years of growth of the post-COVID bottom in 2023. This represents the fastest TAM growth since 2021, and we're prudently preparing for another year of strong demand in 2026 as Core Ultra 3 ramps into a healthy PC ecosystem.
該團隊還實現了支持推出以 Panther Lake 命名的 Core Ultra 3 的所有關鍵里程碑。我們預計,2025 年客戶消費 TAM 將接近 2.9 億台,並在 2023 年創下新冠疫情後連續兩年成長。這是自 2021 年以來 TAM 成長最快的一年,隨著 Core Ultra 3 進入健康的 PC 生態系統,我們正在謹慎地為 2026 年又一個強勁需求年做準備。
PCAI revenue was $4.1 billion up 5% sequentially, above expectations, driven by improved product mix and higher enterprise demand. The strength in host CPUs for AI servers and storage compute continued in the quarter even as supply constraints limited additional upside.
PCAI 營收為 41 億美元,季增 5%,高於預期,這得益於產品組合的改善和企業需求的增加。儘管供應限制限制了進一步的上漲空間,但本季人工智慧伺服器和儲存運算的主機 CPU 仍保持強勁勢頭。
Our latest Xeon 6 processors, code-named Granite Rapids offer significant benefits, including up to 68% TCO savings and up to 80% less power as compared to the average server install base. It is increasingly clear that CPUs play a critical role today and will going forward within the AI data center as AI usage expands and especially as inference workloads outpaced that of training.
我們最新的 Xeon 6 處理器(代號為 Granite Rapids)具有顯著優勢,與普通伺服器安裝基數相比,可節省高達 68% 的 TCO 並降低高達 80% 的功耗。越來越明顯的是,隨著人工智慧應用的擴展,特別是推理工作負載超過訓練工作負載,CPU 在當今人工智慧資料中心中發揮關鍵作用,並將在未來繼續發揮重要作用。
Some data center customers are beginning to ask about longer-term strategic supply agreements to support their business goals due to the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure. This dynamic, combined with the underinvestment in traditional infrastructure over the last couple of years should enable the revenue TAM for server CPUs to comfortably grow going forward.
由於人工智慧基礎設施的快速擴張,一些資料中心客戶開始詢問更長期的策略供應協議,以支援他們的業務目標。這種動態,加上過去幾年對傳統基礎架構的投資不足,應該會讓伺服器 CPU 的營收 TAM 在未來平穩成長。
Operating profit for Intel Products was $3.7 billion, 29% of revenue and up $972 million quarter-over-quarter on stronger product margin, lower operating expenses and a favorable compare due to period costs in Q2.
英特爾產品的營運利潤為 37 億美元,佔營收的 29%,季增 9.72 億美元,這得益於第二季產品利潤率的提高、營運費用的降低以及期間成本的有利比較。
Before discussing Intel Foundry, I want to acknowledge the tireless effort of the NVIDIA and Intel teams. There's a lot of work in front of us, but the collaboration we announced this quarter was the culmination of almost a year of hard work with a company that cuts no corners and prioritizes engineering excellence of all. The x86 architecture has been the foundation of the digital revolution that powers the modern world. AI is the next phase of that revolution, and we're on a path to ensure x86 remains at the heart of it. Engage like this one with NVIDIA are critical to this effort.
在討論英特爾代工之前,我想先感謝 NVIDIA 和英特爾團隊的不懈努力。我們面前有很多工作要做,但我們本季宣布的合作是與一家不偷工減料、優先考慮工程卓越的公司近一年辛勤工作的成果。x86 架構是推動現代世界的數位革命的基礎。人工智慧是這場革命的下一階段,我們正在確保 x86 仍然是這場革命的核心。與 NVIDIA 的此類合作對於這項努力至關重要。
Moving to Intel Foundry. Intel Foundry delivered revenue of $4.2 billion, down 4% sequentially. In Q3, Intel foundry delivered Intel 10 and 7 volume above expectations, met key 18A milestones and released hardened 18AP Ks to the ecosystem. Foundry also advanced the development of Intel 14A and continues to make progress expanding its advanced packaging deal pipeline.
轉向英特爾代工廠。英特爾代工業務營收為 42 億美元,季減 4%。第三季度,英特爾代工廠交付的英特爾 10 和 7 產量超出預期,達到了關鍵的 18A 里程碑,並向生態系統發布了強化的 18AP K。Foundry 也推動了英特爾 14A 的開發,並在擴大其先進封裝交易管道方面繼續取得進展。
Intel Foundry operating loss in Q3 was $2.3 billion, better by $847 million sequentially primarily on favorable comparison due to the approximately $800 million impairment charge in Q2. As Lip-Bu discussed, our confidence in the long-term foundry TAM continues to grow, bolstered by accelerating deployment and adoption of AI and the growing need for wafers and advanced packaging services.
英特爾代工部門第三季的營運虧損為 23 億美元,比上一季減少了 8.47 億美元,這主要是由於第二季約 8 億美元的減損費用導致的有利對比。正如 Lip-Bu 所討論的,由於人工智慧的加速部署和採用以及對晶圓和先進封裝服務日益增長的需求,我們對長期代工 TAM 的信心不斷增強。
Projections are calling for a greater than 10x increase of gigawatts of AI capacity by 2030, creating significant opportunities for Intel foundry with external customers, both for wafers and our differentiated advanced packaging capabilities like EMIB T. We continue the work to earn our customers and our improved balance sheet flexibility will allow us to quickly and responsibly respond to demand as it comes.
預計到 2030 年,人工智慧產能將增加 10 倍以上,為英特爾代工廠與外部客戶創造重大機遇,包括晶圓和 EMIB T 等差異化先進封裝能力。我們將繼續努力贏得客戶,我們資產負債表靈活性的提高將使我們能夠快速、負責任地回應需求。
Turning to -- all Other. Revenue came in at $1 billion, of which Alterra contributed $386 million and was down 6% sequentially due to the intra-quarter closure of Altera. The 3 primary components of all other in Q3 were Mobileye, Altera and IMS. Collectively, the category delivered $100 million of operating profit.
轉向——所有其他。營收為 10 億美元,其中 Alterra 貢獻了 3.86 億美元,由於 Altera 在本季內關閉,營收季減 6%。第三季所有其他的 3 個主要組成部分是 Mobileye、Altera 和 IMS。該類別總共實現了 1 億美元的營業利潤。
Now turning to guidance. For Q4, we're forecasting a revenue range of $12.8 billion to $13.8 billion. At the midpoint, and adjusting for the Altera deconsolidation, Q4's revenue is roughly flat quarter-over-quarter. We expect Intel products up modestly sequentially, but below customer demand as we continue to navigate supply environment. Within Intel products, we expect CCG to be down modestly and DCAI to be up strongly sequentially as we prioritize wafer capacity for service shipments over entry-level client parts.
現在轉向指導。對於第四季度,我們預測營收範圍為 128 億美元至 138 億美元。從中間值來看,並根據 Altera 的拆分進行調整,第四季度的收入與上一季基本持平。我們預計英特爾產品的銷售量將環比小幅上漲,但由於我們繼續關注供應環境,因此低於客戶需求。在英特爾產品中,我們預計 CCG 將小幅下降,而 DCAI 將連續強勁上升,因為我們優先考慮服務出貨的晶圓產能,而不是入門級客戶端零件。
We expect Intel Foundry revenue up quarter-over-quarter on increased Intel 18A revenue and its external foundry revenue up due to the deconsolidation of Alterra.
我們預計,由於英特爾 18A 收入增加,英特爾代工收入將環比增長,並且由於 Alterra 的拆分,其外部代工收入也將增加。
For all other, which now excludes Altera, we expect revenue to decline consistent with mobilized guidance, partially offset by sequential growth in ES. At the midpoint of $13.3 billion, we forecast a gross margin of approximately 36.5% down sequentially due to product mix, the impact of the first shipments of Core Ultra 3, which has the typically higher costs you see in the early stages of a new product ramp and the deconsolidation of Altera. We forecast a tax rate of 12% and EPS of $0.08. And all on a non-GAAP basis. We expect noncontrolled income to be approximately $350 million to $400 million in Q4 on a GAAP basis, and we forecast average fully diluted share count of roughly 5 billion shares for Q4.
對於目前不包括 Altera 的所有其他公司,我們預計收入將與動員指導一致下降,但 ES 的連續成長將部分抵消這一下降。以 133 億美元的中點,我們預測毛利率將比上一季下降約 36.5%,原因是產品組合、Core Ultra 3 首批出貨的影響(新產品推出初期的成本通常較高)以及 Altera 的分割。我們預測稅率為12%,每股盈餘為0.08美元。以上數據均基於非公認會計準則。我們預計第四季非控制性收入(以 GAAP 計算)約為 3.5 億至 4 億美元,我們預測第四季平均完全稀釋股數約為 50 億股。
Moving to CapEx. We continue to anticipate 2025 gross capital investment will be approximately $18 billion and we expect to deploy more than $27 billion of CapEx in 2025 versus $17 billion deployed in 2024.
轉向資本支出。我們繼續預計 2025 年總資本投資將達到約 180 億美元,並且我們預計 2025 年將部署超過 270 億美元的資本支出,而 2024 年部署的資本支出為 170 億美元。
I'll wrap up by saying we exit Q3 with a significantly stronger balance sheet, solid demand in the near term and growing confidence in our core x86 franchise as well as the longer-term opportunities in Foundry, ASICs and accelerators. We also recognize the work we need to reach our full potential.
最後我想說的是,我們在第三季結束時擁有明顯強勁的資產負債表、近期的穩健需求以及對我們的核心 x86 特許經營權以及 Foundry、ASIC 和加速器的長期機會的信心不斷增強。我們也意識到,我們需要付出努力才能充分發揮我們的潛力。
We continue to add external talent and unlock our workforce to improve our execution across product and process development as well as manufacturing. We will closely manage what's in our control, react quickly as the environment evolves, and focus on delivering long-term shareholder value.
我們將繼續引進外部人才並釋放我們的勞動力,以提高我們在產品和流程開發以及製造方面的執行力。我們將密切管理我們所能控制的事物,隨著環境的變化迅速做出反應,並專注於實現長期股東價值。
At this time, I'll turn it back to John to start the Q&A.
現在,我將把話題轉回給約翰,開始問答環節。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
(Event Instructions) With that, Jonathan, can we take the first question, please?
(活動說明)喬納森,我們可以回答第一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.
德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。
Ross Seymore - Research Analyst
Ross Seymore - Research Analyst
Congratulations on the strong results. The first one for you is going to be on the foundry side. You guys announced a ton of collaborations in the quarter; you very much strengthened your balance sheet. And the tone you took in your preamble sounds much more confident on the progress you're making in Foundry. Do any of these collaborative announcements or equity investments go into that increased confidence? Or are there some technical merits that you're seeing that are rising your optimism in that part of your business?
恭喜您取得如此優異的成績。對你來說,第一個將在代工廠方面。你們在本季宣布了大量合作;你們的資產負債表得到了極大的加強。您在序言中所採用的語氣聽起來對您在 Foundry 所取得的進展更有信心。這些合作公告或股權投資是否有助於增強信心?或者,您是否看到了一些技術優點,從而提升了您對該部分業務的樂觀程度?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, Ross, thank you so much for the questions. I think a couple of announcements we make is, I think, clearly more on the product side. And also, one is the SoftBank because they are building up all the infrastructure, AI infrastructure. that definitely will need more capacity on the foundry side. So I think that would be the answer.
是的,羅斯,非常感謝你的提問。我認為我們發布的一些公告顯然更多地涉及產品方面。另外,其中一個是軟銀,因為他們正在建造所有的基礎設施、人工智慧基礎設施。這肯定需要代工方面的產能較多。所以我認為這就是答案。
But meanwhile, I think saying that I think clearly, from what I received from the 18 14A that we made tremendous, good progress the steady progress on 18A and Panther Lake will depend on it. And then clearly, we see the yield in a more predictable way. And I visit that fully in operation for the 18A. And then on the 14A clearly, we're engaging with multiple customers in terms of milestone basis.
但同時,我認為我清楚地認為,從 18 14A 獲得的資訊來看,我們取得了巨大的、良好的進展,18A 和 Panther Lake 的穩步進展將取決於此。然後顯然,我們以更可預測的方式看到收益。我參觀了 18A 的全面運作。然後在 14A 上,我們顯然正在以里程碑的方式與多個客戶接觸。
And we're also really driving some of the yield and performance, reliability that he's seeing improvement and also more exciting the advanced packaging, we also see important demands from some of the key customer from foundry from the cloud able and also enterprise side. So I think overall, I think we are looking quite excited to build this long-term trust with some of the customers in scaling it. And we also focus on hiring some of the top talent driving some of the process technology improvement.
我們也確實在推動產量和性能、可靠性方面的改進,以及更令人興奮的先進封裝,我們也看到來自雲端和企業方面的一些關鍵客戶的重要需求。所以我認為總的來說,我們非常高興能夠與一些客戶建立這種長期信任並擴大其規模。我們也專注於聘請一些頂尖人才來推動一些製程技術的改進。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
Ross, do you have a follow-up question?
羅斯,你還有其他問題嗎?
Ross Seymore - Research Analyst
Ross Seymore - Research Analyst
Yeah, I do. One for Dave on the gross margin side of things. You talked through the upside in the third quarter and the sequential downside in the fourth. But could you just walk us through some of the pluses and minuses as we think about 2026, just kind of directionally? And I guess where I'm going is, it seems like the biggest improvement has to come on the foundry gross margin side of things. Is that the biggest driver? What drives it? And as those gross margins go up, does that have any impact on the Intel products gross margin?
是的,我知道。一個是戴夫關於毛利率方面的問題。您談到了第三季的上漲和第四季的連續下跌。但是,您能否從方向性的角度,為我們簡單介紹一下 2026 年的一些優點和缺點?我想說的是,最大的改進似乎必須來自代工毛利率方面。這是最大的驅動力嗎?是什麼驅動了它?隨著毛利率的上升,這對英特爾產品的毛利率有影響嗎?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, sure. So obviously, we're not going to guide 26%, but I think I can give a little bit of color. I think, first of all, be mindful that Altera is out of the numbers in '26. They were in a large part of the numbers for '25. So that's probably a point of margin headwind for us because they were accretive to our gross margin.
是的,當然。因此,顯然我們不會指導 26%,但我認為我可以給出一點說明。我認為,首先要注意的是,Altera 在 26 年的數據已經不足了。他們佔了 25 年人數的很大一部分。因此,這對我們來說可能是一個利潤阻力點,因為它們會增加我們的毛利率。
So that's going to be a little bit of a challenge to overcome it. I'd say, we still believe in this 40% to 60% fall-through for margins. Of course, it's a little bit of a range. You could drive a truck through quite honestly. But a lot of it is because of mix.
因此克服它會是一個小小的挑戰。我想說,我們仍然相信利潤率會有 40% 到 60% 的跌幅。當然,這是一個有點範圍的事情。老實說,你可以駕駛卡車通過。但很多都是因為混合。
I mean we'll have -- obviously, Lunar Lake will be a big component in the -- at least in the first half of the year, and that is a dilutive product to us. And then Panther Lake, while obviously, it's going to be a great cross structure for us over time, given the wafers are fabbed internally.
我的意思是,顯然,Lunar Lake 將成為至少在今年上半年的一個重要組成部分,這對我們來說是一種稀釋性產品。然後是 Panther Lake,顯然,隨著時間的推移,它對我們來說將是一個很好的交叉結構,因為晶圓是在內部製造的。
Initially, obviously, when you got a new product on a new process, they're pretty expensive products to start with. And so if dilutive in the beginning of the year and then it gets better over the course of the year.
顯然,最初當你透過新工藝獲得新產品時,它們一開始是相當昂貴的產品。因此,如果年初的情況有所稀釋,那麼全年的情況就會變得更好。
I do agree we should see gross margins improve on the foundry side for sure. Partly, that is the scale dynamic that we will see benefit from but also as we move towards more leading-edge mix 18A for sure, but also even Intel 43; those products have better pricing and a better cost structure. And so those margins should be accretive. And really, the dynamic about how much it improves will largely be a function of how the mix plays out through the year.
我確實同意我們肯定會看到代工方面的毛利率提高。部分原因是,這是我們將受益的規模動態,但隨著我們朝著更前沿的混合 18A 邁進,甚至是英特爾 43;這些產品具有更好的定價和更好的成本結構。因此這些利潤率應該是遞增的。事實上,其改善程度的動態很大程度上取決於全年的組合表現。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
Jonathan, can we have the next question, please?
喬納森,我們可以問下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Joseph Moore from Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的約瑟夫·摩爾。
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Joseph Moore - Analyst
I was really interested in a lot of the prepared remarks around the sort of differences to your approach to foundry, and you talked about this last quarter and this quarter that you're sort of looking for customer commitments before you make the investment. Can you just talk about how those conversations are going? And I certainly -- I can see the trade-off from a customer standpoint; they're making a commitment to you? Do they expect that capacity to be built ahead of time? Just is there a bit of a chicken and egg aspect to these investments? And just how are you approaching those conversations?
我對您關於代工方法的差異的許多準備好的評論非常感興趣,您在上個季度和本季度談到了這一點,即在進行投資之前,您正在尋求客戶的承諾。能談談這些對話的進展嗎?我當然——我可以從客戶的角度看到這種權衡;他們對你做出了承諾?他們是否預計產能將提前建成?這些投資有點像先有雞還是先有蛋的問題?您是如何處理這些對話的?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, Joseph, thank you so much for the question. I think on the foundry side, clearly, we are engaging with multiple customers. And as the building the trust of the customer, you need to really yield improvement, reliability and also you need to have all the specific IP that they require is a service industry you need to have all the right IP. That's why I formed the central engineering to get all the right IP to matching with the customer requirement.
是的,約瑟夫,非常感謝你的提問。我認為在代工方面,顯然我們正在與多個客戶合作。在建立客戶信任的過程中,您需要真正實現改進和可靠性,並且還需要擁有他們所需的所有特定 IP,在服務業中,您需要擁有所有正確的 IP。這就是我組成中央工程部來獲取所有正確的 IP 以滿足客戶要求的原因。
And then I think the best way is really show the performance, the yield and then we can get the test chip so that they can really work on it. And then they can starting to deploy their most important revenue wafer to depend on us so that we can drive the success for them. So I think those are very important.
然後我認為最好的方式是真正展示性能、產量,然後我們可以獲得測試晶片,以便他們可以真正地對其進行研究。然後,他們就可以開始部署他們最重要的收入來源來依賴我們,以便我們可以為他們帶來成功。所以我認為這些都非常重要。
In terms of potential investment and cooperation, I think with a different customer, different requirements, we are working with them. But more important is to get their commitment to the foundry and the support. I think that's building the trust that's more important.
就潛在的投資和合作而言,我認為針對不同的客戶、不同的要求,我們正在與他們合作。但更重要的是獲得他們對代工廠的承諾和支持。我認為建立信任更為重要。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. Maybe just to add on. I would say that I think customers understand that it takes time from the time you deploy capital to the time where you have output. And so our expectation is we will get those commitments firmed up in time to deploy the capital and time to meet the demand. I'd also say we're in a reasonably decent position given the CapEx investments we've already made.
是的。也許只是為了補充一下。我想說的是,我認為客戶明白,從部署資本到獲得產出需要時間。因此,我們期望及時兌現這些承諾,以部署資金和時間來滿足需求。我還想說,考慮到我們已經進行的資本支出投資,我們處於相當不錯的地位。
So we have a lot of the assets on the books and what we call assets under construction. We've made a lot of investments around the shelf space.
因此,我們有許多帳面資產和所謂的在建資產。我們在貨架空間方面進行了大量投資。
So we do see line of sight to driving a reasonable amount of supply for our external foundry customers with our existing footprint. And quite honestly, with the use of the assets under construction and reuse of equipment that we have on the books today. So I think we have flexibility. Obviously, if things go better, we may be looking to invest more to that more quickly, but we feel reasonably confident we can react to the situation.
因此,我們確實看到了利用現有資源為外部代工客戶提供合理供應的潛力。坦白說,我們正在利用在建資產並重新利用我們現有的設備。所以我認為我們有彈性。顯然,如果情況好轉,我們可能會考慮更快地投入更多資金,但我們有信心對情況做出反應。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
Joe, do you have a follow-up question?
喬,你還有其他問題嗎?
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Joseph Moore - Analyst
I do. Yeah. Separately, the supply constraints and server CPUs and other CPUs, we see those in market. I guess, but your growth was 5% sequentially single-digit growth year-on-year. I guess where is the shortage coming from. Is there just better demand ahead that you're not able to meet? Is it some of the transitions that you guys have managed, and I certainly see that tightness in the marketplace. So I'm not arguing with us curious where you see that shortage coming from and how it will get resolved.
我願意。是的。另外,我們在市場上看到了供應限制以及伺服器 CPU 和其他 CPU。我想是的,但您的成長率是連續 5%,年成長個位數。我猜短缺是從哪裡來的。是否存在您無法滿足的更好的需求?這是你們管理的一些轉變嗎?我確實看到了市場緊張的局面。因此,我不是在與我們爭論,我只是好奇您認為這種短缺從何而來以及如何解決。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, I mean, shortage is pretty much across our business, I would say. We are definitely tight on Intel 10 and 7. Obviously, we're not looking to build more capacity there. And so as we get more demand, we're constrained.
是的,我的意思是,我們的整個業務都存在短缺問題。我們對 Intel 10 和 7 的依賴確實很緊密。顯然,我們並不打算在那裡建設更多的產能。因此,隨著需求的增加,我們受到了限制。
In some ways, we're living off of inventory. We're also trying to kind of demand shape to get customers to other products. There's also shortages even beyond our specific challenges on the foundry side. I think there's widely reported substrate shortages for example. So obviously, I think the demand -- there's a lot of caution coming into the year across the board.
某種程度上來說,我們是靠庫存生存的。我們也嘗試透過某種需求塑造來吸引客戶購買其他產品。除了我們在代工方面面臨的具體挑戰之外,還有短缺問題。例如,我認為有廣泛報導的基質短缺問題。因此,顯然,我認為需求——今年各方面都表現出很大的謹慎態度。
And it looks like things are going to be stronger this year and probably that continues well into next year. And I think everybody is trying to manage through it.
看起來今年的情況會更加強勁,而且這種勢頭很可能會持續到明年。我認為每個人都在努力解決這個問題。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
Jonathan, can we have the next question, please?
喬納森,我們可以問下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
C.J. Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.
C.J. Muse,領唱費茲傑拉。
C.J. Muse - Analyst
C.J. Muse - Analyst
I guess a follow-up on the current outlook for demand outpacing supply into 2026. Curious if that's a comment largely focused on server or also including clients? And I guess depending on your thoughts there. How should we be thinking about Q1 trends versus normal seasonality, which typically, I guess, would be down high single digits, low double digits.
我猜測,到 2026 年,目前的前景將是需求超過供應。好奇這則評論主要關注伺服器還是也包括客戶端?我想這取決於你的想法。我們應該如何看待第一季的趨勢與正常的季節性,我猜,正常季節性通常會下降高個位數,低兩位數。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. It's both. Although as we said, we are yielding a bit of the small core market and client to fulfill customer requirements more broadly on the client space and more specifically in the server space. So that's how we're going to kind of manage it. As you look into Q1, obviously, again, this is something we'll probably give you a lot more color around in January.
是的。兩者都有。儘管正如我們所說,我們正在放棄一些小核心市場和客戶,以更廣泛地滿足客戶在客戶端空間,更具體地說是在伺服器空間的需求。這就是我們要採取的管理方式。當您回顧第一季時,顯然,我們可能會在一月份為您提供更多詳細資訊。
I would just say we may actually be at our peak in terms of shortages in the first quarter because we've lived through the Q3 and Q4 with a little bit of inventory to help us and just cranking the output as much as we could with the factory.
我想說的是,我們第一季的短缺情況實際上可能已經達到了頂峰,因為在第三季度和第四季度,我們依靠少量庫存來支撐,並且工廠盡可能地提高了產量。
We probably won't have as much of that luxury in Q1. So I'm not sure we'll buck the trend on seasonality given the fact that we're going to be really, really tight in the first quarter. After that, I think we'll start to see some improvements in we can get ourselves caught up as we get through the rest of the year.
我們在第一季可能不會有那麼多的奢侈。因此,考慮到第一季我們的業務將會非常非常緊張,我不確定我們是否會逆季節性趨勢發展。此後,我想我們會開始看到一些進步,我們可以在度過今年剩餘的時間時趕上進度。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
C.J., do you have a follow-up question?
C.J.,您還有其他問題嗎?
C.J. Muse - Analyst
C.J. Muse - Analyst
I do. I guess given the investments from the US government in NVIDIA, et cetera, I'm curious with that improved cash position and liquidity, how has your thinking evolved in terms of investments in either CapEx or other investments in your product businesses.
我願意。我想,考慮到美國政府對 NVIDIA 等公司的投資,我很好奇,隨著現金狀況和流動性的改善,您在資本支出或其他產品業務投資方面的想法是如何演變的。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, I mean, obviously, we're in a great position. I'd say, as we think about this cash, our first focus is to delever. I mean, that's one of the things we really wanted to -- when Lip-Bu came in, he really was upset about pacing. So we've done a lot to work on that and improve that for him.
是的,我的意思是,顯然我們處於有利地位。我想說,當我們考慮這筆現金時,我們的首要關注點是去槓桿。我的意思是,這是我們真正想要做的事情之一——當 Lip-Bu 進來時,他確實對步調感到不安。因此,我們為他做了很多工作並做出了改進。
We took billion of debt off the books this quarter and all the maturities next quarter or next year should come off and we'll repat. I think as you look at CapEx, it puts us in a position of flexibility on CapEx but we want to be very disciplined around CapEx.
本季我們取消了數十億美元的債務,下個季度或明年所有到期的債務都應該會償還,然後我們就會歸還。我認為,當你看資本支出時,它使我們在資本支出方面處於靈活的地位,但我們希望在資本支出方面非常自律。
So we will absolutely be looking at demand who's been very direct with us on this. He wants to see the whites of the eyes of the customer that we can believe in that demand. And if that demand exists, of course, we will amp up the CapEx as necessary. As you think about investment, we still think that $16 billion of OpEx investment for next year is the right amount. Although Lip-Bu and I are constantly now looking at how we mix that $16 billion to drive the best possible growth and return for investors, and we will be making those changes.
因此,我們絕對會關注那些在這個問題上對我們非常直接的需求。他希望看到顧客的眼白,我們可以相信這個需求。如果有這種需求,我們當然會根據需要增加資本支出。當您考慮投資時,我們仍然認為明年 160 億美元的營運支出投資是合適的金額。儘管我和立武現在一直在研究如何組合這 160 億美元,以推動投資者實現最佳成長和回報,但我們將做出這些改變。
Beyond that, we'll see how things go. We want to be pretty disciplined about our OpEx as a percent of revenue and drive leverage. But we do see opportunities to make investments that can, I think, deliver great returns for us and we're not afraid to do that either.
除此之外,我們也會觀察事情的進展。我們希望嚴格控制營運支出佔收入的百分比並提高槓桿率。但我們確實看到了投資機會,我認為這些機會可以為我們帶來豐厚的回報,而且我們不怕這樣做。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
Jonathan, can we have the next question, please?
喬納森,我們可以問下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Blayne Curtis, Jefferies.
布萊恩·柯蒂斯,傑富瑞。
Blayne Curtis - Analyst
Blayne Curtis - Analyst
Just on the CapEx, I think you reiterated $18 billion, but I think you spent, I guess, less than I was modeling in Q3. So is that really still the number? And I'm just curious, as you start to ramp this 18A and Arizona? Is there a way to think about the timing of when you add capacity there.
僅就資本支出而言,我認為您重申了 180 億美元,但我認為您的支出比我在第三季建模的要少。那麼這真的還是那個數字嗎?我只是好奇,你什麼時候開始提升這個 18A 和亞利桑那州的?有沒有辦法考慮在那裡增加容量的時機。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
On the $18 billion, yes, I think that's still the number. Obviously, CapEx can be it depends on when things get when all the requirements associated with paying the invoice are completed, that's when we make the payments. And so we would expect to be somewhere in that range. Obviously, there's an error bar around that. It might be a little bit less or a little bit more than that.
關於 180 億美元,是的,我認為這仍然是一個數字。顯然,資本支出取決於何時完成與支付發票相關的所有要求,然後我們就會付款。因此我們預計會處於該範圍內。顯然,這其中存在一個誤差。可能比這少一點,也可能比這多一點。
18A, we still have to ramp this. I wouldn't expect significant capacity increases in the near term. I think we peak support 18A.
18A,我們仍然需要加大力度。我預計短期內產能不會大幅增加。我認為我們的峰值支援為 18A。
In fact, we don't get there until the end of the decade. And we do think that this node will be a fairly long-lived node for us. And so we will continue to make in overtime. There will be CapEx investments next year, but I wouldn't expect the supply to lease capacity to significantly change vis-a-vis our expectations right now.
事實上,我們要到本世紀末才能實現這一目標。我們確實認為這個節點對我們來說將是一個相當長壽的節點。因此我們將繼續加班加點。明年將會有資本支出投資,但我預計租賃產能的供應不會與我們目前的預期相比有重大變化。
Blayne Curtis - Analyst
Blayne Curtis - Analyst
Just I wanted to follow up on the gross margin trajectory as 18A layers in. I know comparing it to probably the prior couple of nodes, not a great compare but maybe to a successful one. When you say yields are in a good spot and improving. Is there a way to think about where those 18A yields are versus the successful product that you've seen in your history and kind of think about how that layers in the first half?
我只是想追蹤 18A 層中的毛利率變化軌跡。我知道將它與之前的幾個節點進行比較,雖然不是很好的比較,但也許是一個成功的比較。當您說收益率處於良好水平並且正在提高時。有沒有辦法思考一下 18A 的收益率與您歷史上見過的成功產品相比如何,並思考一下它在上半年是如何分層的?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, I would say, in general, I don't -- I'm not sure yielding focus of ours, quite honestly. So we're laying a new trial on this. Yields are -- what I would say the yields are adequate to address the supply, but they are not where we need them to be in order to drive the appropriate level of margins. And -- by the end of next year, we'll probably be in that space.
是的,我想說,總的來說,我不——坦白說,我不確定我們的重點是什麼。因此,我們對此進行了新的審判。收益率-我想說收益率足以解決供應問題,但還沒有達到我們需要的水平,無法達到適當的利潤水平。到明年年底,我們可能就會進入這個領域。
And certainly, the year after that, I think they'll be in what would be kind of an industry acceptable level the yields. I would tell you on 14A we're off to a great start. And if you look at 14A in terms of its maturity relative to 18A at that same point of maturity, we're better in terms of performance and yield. So off to an even better start on 14A, we just got to kind of continue that progress.
當然,我認為,第二年,他們的收益率將達到行業可接受的水平。我想告訴你,在 14A 上我們已經有了一個好的開始。如果從成熟度角度來看 14A 與成熟度相同的 18A,則我們在效能和效益方面更勝一籌。因此,為了在 14A 上取得更好的開端,我們只需要繼續這項進展。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
Jonathan, can we have the next question, please?
喬納森,我們可以問下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.
拉斯貢(Stacy Rasgon),伯恩斯坦研究公司。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
I wanted to go back and ask about the supply constraints again. So you talked a lot about how AI was driving a lot of demand across servers and across PCs. But at the same time, it doesn't look like customers want your AI products. In fact, I can't get enough of the older stuff. So I guess -- I mean, you must have plenty of supply for Granite and for media and even for Lunar Lake.
我想回去再問一下供應限制的情況。所以你談了很多關於人工智慧如何推動伺服器和個人電腦的大量需求。但同時,客戶似乎也不想要你的人工智慧產品。事實上,我對舊的東西總是欲罷不能。所以我猜——我的意思是,你們一定有足夠的 Granite、媒材甚至 Lunar Lake 的供應。
So how are you going to get the customers off of the older products where they haven't shown any desire to get off of them so far even given the constraints that they've been under. And I get in about the transition of those tumors because you're clearly -- I mean, you even said it yourself, you're not adding any more of the older capacity. In fact, you took some of it offline, right?
那麼,您該如何讓客戶放棄使用舊產品呢?儘管他們受到了許多限制,但到目前為止,他們還沒有表現出放棄舊產品的任何意願。我之所以談論這些腫瘤的轉變,是因為你很清楚──我的意思是,你自己也說過,你不會再增加任何舊容量。事實上,您已經將其中一些內容下線了,對嗎?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. Good question, Stacy. I would -- I think it's a misnomer to say AI hasn't done well. I mean it was sequentially up double digits quarter-over-quarter. And we talked about a number of about we would ship about 100 million units by the end of this year on AIPC, and we're going to be first order in that range. So I think it's going pretty well.
是的。問得好,史黛西。我認為——說人工智慧做得不好是一種誤解。我的意思是,它每個季度都環比增長了兩位數。我們談到了今年年底我們將透過 AIPC 出貨約 1 億台設備,我們將成為該範圍內的首批訂單。所以我認為一切進展順利。
Clearly, though, the older nodes have also done well, and that was probably the part that was more unexpected. We -- I think we've just got to participate in making sure that the ecosystem drives enough applications for AI in the PC space.
不過,顯然,較舊的節點也表現良好,這可能是更出乎意料的部分。我認為我們必須參與確保生態系統能夠推動 PC 領域足夠的 AI 應用。
And we work with the ISVs regularly to drive that. They're getting there. Like any market, it starts relatively immature and kind of builds out over time. But even in our company, we're starting to find uses for AIPC. In fact, IR is coming up with a that we'll be using.
我們定期與 ISV 合作來推動這一目標。他們正在到達那裡。與任何市場一樣,它開始時相對不成熟,並隨著時間的推移逐漸成熟。但即使在我們公司,我們也開始發現 AIPC 的用途。事實上,IR 正在提出我們將要使用的方法。
So I think it's just time. Now that said, what clearly is happening is the window fresh is happening more significantly than I think we expected. And that's not necessarily an AIPC story. And so Raptor Lake is also a product that addresses that. And so we're just seeing upside in that part of the market as well.
所以我認為現在是時候了。話雖如此,顯然正在發生的事情是,視窗更新比我們預期的更為顯著。這不一定是 AIPC 的故事。因此 Raptor Lake 也是一款解決這個問題的產品。因此,我們也看到了該部分市場的上漲空間。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
Stacey, do you have a follow-up?
史黛西,你還有後續消息嗎?
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Dave, I want to follow up on 2 things that I think I heard you say on 18A. I thought I heard you say -- number one, the yield would not be in a great place, at least until the end of next year. And then I thought I also heard you say that you were not going to be adding a lot of 18A capacity next year. Did I hear those wrong? I mean, how can such the latter one?
戴夫,我想跟進一下你在 18A 中提到的兩件事。我想我聽到您說了——第一,收益率不會很好,至少到明年年底是這樣。然後我想我還聽到您說明年不會增加很多 18A 容量。我聽錯了嗎?我的意思是,後者怎麼可能?
How can how can that be true if you're ramping Panther, or is that like a --
如果你正在加速 Panther,那怎麼可能呢?或者這就像--
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Obviously at our -- and what I'm saying is relative to the CapEx plan, it's not like we're going to incrementally add supply for 18A next year. But yes, of course, we're going to be ramping the volume over the course of the next year. I wouldn't say 18 wheels are in a bad place. I mean, they're where we want them to be at this point we had a goal for the end of the year, and they're going to hit that goal. But to be fully accretive in terms of the cost structure of 18A, we need the yields to be better.
顯然,在我們的——我所說的是相對於資本支出計劃,我們明年不會逐步增加 18A 的供應。但是是的,當然,我們將在明年增加產量。我不會說 18 個輪子的情況很糟。我的意思是,他們現在正處於我們期望的水平,我們為今年年底設定了一個目標,他們將會實現這個目標。但為了在 18A 的成本結構方面實現充分增值,我們需要更高的收益率。
I mean, that's like every process, that's what happens. And it's going to take all of next year, I think, to really get to a place where that's the case.
我的意思是,就像每個過程一樣,都會發生這樣的事情。我認為,要真正實現這一目標,需要用到明年全年的時間。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
Jonathan, can we have the next question, please?
喬納森,我們可以問下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Joshua Buchalter, TD Cowen.
約書亞·布查爾特(Joshua Buchalter),TD Cowen。
Joshua Buchalter - Analyst
Joshua Buchalter - Analyst
I want to ask about some comments. Lip-Bu made in the prepared remarks about fixed function computing and potentially supporting more ASICs. Was this -- maybe could you provide more context on the scope of this? Is this for potential foundry customers? Or are these products?
我想問一些評論。Lip-Bu 在準備好的演講中談到了固定功能計算以及可能支援更多 ASIC。這是——也許您能提供更多關於此範圍的背景資訊嗎?這是針對潛在的代工客戶嗎?還是這些是產品?
And if it's products, what types of applications do you expect to be supporting with custom silicon?
如果是產品,您希望透過客製化矽片支援哪些類型的應用程式?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good question. So I think, first of all, I just mentioned about the central engineering, we are driving the ASIC design, and that will be enhanced -- actually is a good opportunity for us to enhance extend our reach of the core K6 IP and also drive some of the purpose-built silicon for some of our systems and cloud players and the customer.
好問題。所以我認為,首先,我剛剛提到了中央工程,我們正在推動 ASIC 設計,這將得到增強——實際上這對我們來說是一個很好的機會,可以增強我們的核心 K6 IP 的覆蓋範圍,同時也推動一些專用矽片為我們的一些系統和雲端播放器和客戶。
And then finally, with the foundry and packaging also that were helping us in terms of their requirement. So all in all, I think this AI will be driving a lot of growth especially in the double down the Moore's law, and that will help us a lot in our 86 uplift and that's an opportunity for us to build a whole ASIC design to serve some of the customer requirement.
最後,代工廠和封裝廠也根據他們的需求為我們提供了幫助。總而言之,我認為人工智慧將推動許多成長,特別是在雙倍摩爾定律方面,這將對我們的 86 提升有很大幫助,這也是我們建立整個 ASIC 設計來滿足部分客戶需求的機會。
Joshua Buchalter - Analyst
Joshua Buchalter - Analyst
So on the last quarter, obviously, the disclosure that you might -- may decide to abandon 14A, got a lot of attention. I just wanted to ask, given your balance sheet is in a lot different spot than it was three months ago. Has anything changed from that regard? I don't think the Q is out, so I haven't seen if any of the language change there. But was curious if anything had moved around since last quarter given all the changes in your balance sheet?
因此,在上個季度,顯然,您可能決定放棄 14A 的披露引起了很多關注。我只是想問一下,因為你們的資產負債表與三個月前相比有很大不同。從這方面來說有什麼改變嗎?我認為 Q 還沒有出來,所以我還沒有看到那裡的語言是否有任何變化。但考慮到資產負債表上的所有變化,您是否好奇自上個季度以來是否有任何變化?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Since the last balance quarter, I think clearly, our engagement with the customer for 14 days increase, and we are very heavily engaging with the customer in terms of defining the technology, the process, the yield and the IP requirement to serve them. And they clearly see the tremendous demand that they need to have Intel to be strong on the 14A. And so we are delighted and more confident. And meanwhile, we're also attracting some of the key talent for the process technology that can really drive success -- and that's why it gives me a lot more confidence to drive that.
是的。我認為,自上個季度以來,我們與客戶的互動明顯增加了 14 天,我們在定義技術、流程、產量和 IP 要求方面與客戶進行了非常密切的接觸,以便為他們提供服務。他們清楚地看到了巨大的需求,他們需要英特爾在 14A 上保持強勁。因此,我們感到高興,也更有信心。同時,我們也在吸引一些能夠真正推動成功的工藝技術關鍵人才——這就是為什麼它給了我更多的信心去推動這一點。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
Jonathan, can we have the next question, please?
喬納森,我們可以問下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Ben Reitzes, Melius.
本‧賴茲 (Ben Reitzes),梅利厄斯 (Melius)。
Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst
Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst
Lip-Bu, anything -- can we get an update on the NVIDIA relationship, timing of products? Have you gotten any feedback from customers in terms of your ability to articulate on the materiality of the relationship and in terms of timing and materiality or any other color you want to give us on that?
Lip-Bu,有什麼事嗎——我們可以了解一下 NVIDIA 關係和產品時間的最新情況嗎?您是否收到客戶的回饋,關於您能否清晰地表達關係的重要性以及時間和重要性,或者您想就此向我們提供任何其他資訊?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. Thank you. And this is a very important collaboration with NVIDIA. It's a great company, as you guys know. And I've been is a friend of Janssen for more than 30 years.
當然。謝謝。這是與 NVIDIA 的一次非常重要的合作。正如你們所知,這是一家很棒的公司。我和詹森已經是朋友 30 多年了。
And we are very excited about this effort of Intel CPU 86 leadership and they are unmatched AI and accelerated computing and then connecting with their NVLink and that will be really create a new class of product in the multigenerations. And this is something that very heavy engineering to engineering engagement.
我們對英特爾 CPU 86 領導層的這項努力感到非常興奮,他們擁有無與倫比的人工智慧和加速運算能力,然後與他們的 NVLink 連接,這將真正在多代產品中創造出一種新的產品類別。這是一項對工程參與要求非常高的工作。
And that will be driving some of the new product that custom data center and PC product and that really optimized for the AI era. So I think all in all, I think this is going to be multiple years of engagement and then addressing a market that we are excited and also driving some of the requirement for the AI infrastructure.
這將推動一些客製化資料中心和 PC 產品以及真正針對人工智慧時代進行優化的新產品。所以我認為總的來說,這將是多年的參與,然後解決我們興奮的市場,並推動對人工智慧基礎設施的一些需求。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And maybe just one more addition. Just what makes this really special for us is it's not attacking existing TAM. It's an incremental opportunity for us to expand the TAM. And so these are great opportunities for us.
也許還只是再補充一點。對我們來說,這真正特別之處在於它不會攻擊現有的 TAM。這對我們來說是一個擴大 TAM 的增量機會。所以這對我們來說是絕佳的機會。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
Ben, do you have a follow-up?
本,你還有後續消息嗎?
Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst
Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst
Yeah, Lip-Bu, you mentioned a little bit about your AI strategy now to attack the inference market and that there's -- you see room for Intel Solutions. And it sounds like you're going to partner a lot there. Is this strategy more about partnering? Is it more about -- is there a specific Intel IP for inferencing that you're excited about? Or is it more of a Switzerland approach where you could partner with a lot of the existing players out there to attack more of the TAM.
是的,Lip-Bu,您提到了現在您的人工智慧策略,即進軍推理市場,並且您看到了英特爾解決方案的發展空間。聽起來你將會在那裡與很多公司合作。這個策略是否更與合作有關?更多的是——是否有一個讓您感到興奮的用於推理的特定英特爾 IP?或者它更像是一種瑞士方法,你可以與許多現有參與者合作攻擊更多的 TAM。
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, good question. So I think, first of all, I think with the AIF driving a lot of growth, we definitely want to play in that. I think this is a very early inning. And so I think that's an opportunity for us. And I think one area that we are focused on is our revitalizing our 86 and to really tailor to purpose bill CPU, GPU requirement for the new AI workload and then really addressing the power-efficient Agentic, managing all the different agents.
是的,好問題。所以我認為,首先,我認為由於 AIF 推動了大量成長,我們肯定希望參與其中。我認為這是一個非常早期的局面。所以我認為這對我們來說是一個機會。我認為我們關注的一個領域是振興我們的 86,並真正根據用途定制 CPU、GPU 以滿足新的 AI 工作負載的要求,然後真正解決節能的 Agentic,管理所有不同的代理。
This is a new way of compute platform of choice and that will be also applying to the system and software. You're going to say to you, I think we're going to partnering with some of the incumbents and also the emerging companies that are driving some of these changes.
這是一種新的計算平台選擇方式,也將應用於系統和軟體。你會說,我認為我們將與一些現有企業以及推動這些變革的新興公司合作。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
Jonathan, can we have the next question, please?
喬納森,我們可以問下一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Timothy Arcuri, UBS.
瑞銀集團的提摩西·阿庫裡。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Dave, it's not that often we see high fixed cost businesses that are constrained that have gross margins less than 40%. And I certainly get that most of this is because of the wafer cost for Intel 10 and 7 and you still have low yields on 18A. But I'm wondering -- and this is probably a hard question to ask to answer, but I wonder if you could maybe just kind of fast forward a bit. And so like what would gross margin be if you were off of 10 and 7 and you were on 18A, is there a way you could like normalize it for us?
戴夫,我們並不經常看到受到限制的高固定成本企業的毛利率低於 40%。我當然知道,這主要是因為英特爾 10 和 7 的晶圓成本,而且 18A 的產量仍然很低。但我想知道——這可能是一個很難回答的問題,但我想知道你是否可以稍微快轉一點。那麼,如果您的毛利率為 10% 和 7%,而您使用的是 18A,那麼毛利率是多少呢?有沒有什麼方法可以讓我們標準化?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, I mean you may be listening in on some of my conversations with here because that's not something I've been making the point of. I would say there's two dynamics, one of which you're hitting on, and that is the high cost of older processes versus the better cost structure for the newer processes, and that's obviously meaningful. I mean we're a negative gross margin territory for foundry. That makes a meaningful improvement, if you move it even into the positive territory.
是的,我的意思是,你可能正在聽我的一些談話,因為這不是我一直強調的重點。我想說有兩種動態,其中一種就是你提到的,那就是舊工藝的高成本與新工藝的更好的成本結構,這顯然很有意義。我的意思是,對於代工來說,我們的毛利率是負數。如果你將其移動到積極的領域,那麼這將是一個有意義的改進。
But the other aspect of our gross margin is a function of just the product quality. We're in reason shape on client and product performance and competitiveness. -- with a few exceptions, but we're not where we need to be on a cost basis. And so we've got to make improvements there. And we have that on the road map. The team recognizes it, but that's a multiyear process to get there.
但我們毛利率的另一個面向僅取決於產品品質。我們的客戶和產品性能以及競爭力都處於合理狀態——除了少數例外,但從成本角度來看,我們還沒有達到我們需要的水平。因此我們必須在這方面做出改進。我們已經將其列入路線圖了。團隊認識到了這一點,但這需要一個多年的過程才能實現。
But it's more pronounced on the data center side. Not only do we not have the right cost structure, but we also rate competitiveness to really get the right margins from our customers. And so we've got work to do there. And so that's what Lip-Bu and the team is pulled in or hyper focused on is getting great products at the right cost structure to try better that to me, I think, is the linchpin and all this. The improvements on the foundry side are just going to come, I think.
但在資料中心方面,這種現象更為明顯。我們不僅沒有正確的成本結構,而且還評估競爭力以真正從客戶那裡獲得正確的利潤。因此我們在那裡還有工作要做。因此,Lip-Bu 和團隊所關注的重點是以正確的成本結構獲得優質的產品,並盡力做到更好,對我來說,我認為這是關鍵。我認為,代工方面的改進即將到來。
We're going to mix higher and higher to Intel 3, 4 and then 18A and ultimately, 14A, the cost structures of all of those are actually pretty similar.
我們將混合越來越高的英特爾 3、4,然後是 18A,最終是 14A,所有這些的成本結構實際上非常相似。
And it will could just be a function of the fact that the value that's provided by those leading edge nodes is going to be significantly more, and that's going to just materially drive the gross margins up. The other thing that I would say is we are seeing a lot of start-up costs by virtue of the fact that we've jammed a whole bunch of new processes in kind of in rapid fashion. As we get into 14, our cadence will be more normalized. And so you won't see so much start-up cost stacked on top of each other, which is affecting gross margins. And that's billions of dollars.
這可能只是因為這些前沿節點所提供的價值將顯著增加,這將實質地提高毛利率。我想說的另一件事是,由於我們以快速的方式塞入了一大堆新流程,我們看到了大量的啟動成本。當我們進入 14 時,我們的節奏將更加正常化。因此,你不會看到如此多的啟動成本堆積在一起,從而影響毛利率。這一金額高達數十億美元。
So I think as you get beyond a few years, that rolls off and will also help.
所以我認為,隨著幾年的過去,這種情況會逐漸減少,也會有所幫助。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
Tim, you have a quick follow up?
提姆,你有什麼後續消息嗎?
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
I do. Yeah. Lip-Bu, you didn't give an update last call on Diamond Rapids launch date. I know the whole road map is under review, but you did found that company sounds fairly optimistic about Coral Rapid, can you just give us sort of an update on the data center road map a bit here?
我願意。是的。Lip-Bu,您上次沒有透露 Diamond Rapids 發射日期的最新消息。我知道整個路線圖正在審查中,但您確實發現該公司對 Coral Rapid 相當樂觀,您能否在這裡向我們介紹一下資料中心路線圖的最新情況?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thank you. Good questions. So I think clearly, the Diamond Rapid getting stronger hyperscale feedback. And then we also focus on the new product, the Coral Rapids, and that will be included SMT, the module trading and that can drive higher performance.
是的。謝謝。好問題。所以我清楚地認為,Diamond Rapid 獲得了更強的超大規模回饋。然後我們也關注新產品 Coral Rapids,它將包括 SMT、模組交易,可以提高效能。
We are in the definition stage. And then we will work out the road map and then we're going to execute that it would be going forward.
我們正處於定義階段。然後我們將製定路線圖並執行它。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
Thanks, Tim. Jonathan, we have time for one last questioner.
謝謝,蒂姆。喬納森,我們還有時間回答最後一位提問。
Operator
Operator
Aaron Rakers, Wells Fargo.
富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Just a couple of real quick ones. I guess going back to the NVIDIA relationship. I can appreciate that the announcement was really tied to the NVLink fusion strategy and integrating that with the x86 ecosystem. But I think there's been some also some recent reports about maybe using Gaudi for some dedicated inference workloads within a stack of NVIDIA. How do you -- is this relationship a starting point? And should we expect to see more potential integration beyond NVLink going forward?
只是幾個非常快速的問題。我想回到與 NVIDIA 的關係。我很欣賞該公告確實與 NVLink 融合策略以及將其與 x86 生態系統結合有關。但我認為最近也有一些報告指出可能使用 Gaudi 在 NVIDIA 堆疊中執行一些專用推理工作負載。您如何看待—這種關係是一個起點嗎?我們是否應該期待未來看到更多超越 NVLink 的潛在整合?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, I think -- let me answer that. I think NVLink is kind of more the hub to connecting the 86 and GPU. In terms of the AI strategy, we clearly we are defining the Crescent Island that we talk about. And also, we also have a new product line in the lineup. So they're addressing the genic and the physical AI and more in the inference infant side. And so I think stay tuned, we will update that.
是的,我想──讓我來回答這個問題。我認為 NVLink 更像是連結 86 和 GPU 的樞紐。在人工智慧策略方面,我們明確定義了我們所說的新月島。此外,我們的產品線中還有一條新的產品線。因此,他們正在解決基因和物理人工智慧以及推理嬰兒方面的更多問題。所以我想請繼續關注,我們會更新。
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Corporate VP of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations
A quick follow-up?
快速跟進?
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
I do, and I'll make it really short. Can you just update us on how we think about the NCI, the noncontrolling interest expense as we look through this year and think about that, I think you've given some comments in the past of how we should think about that into '26.
是的,我會講得非常簡短。您能否向我們介紹一下我們對 NCI 的看法,即今年的非控制性權益費用,我想您過去曾對我們應該如何看待 26 年這個問題發表過一些評論。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. I think '26, we're looking at somewhere in the [$1.2 billion to $1.4 billion] range is probably a good estimate. Obviously, we're focused on that, and we'll work to minimize that as much as possible.
是的。我認為‘26’,我們正在考慮的某個範圍在[12億美元到14億美元]之間,可能是一個很好的估計。顯然,我們關注的是這一點,我們將盡可能減少這種情況。
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
With that, I want to thank everyone for joining us today. We are on the journey of rebuild Intel, and we have a lot of work ahead of us, but we are making solid progress in Q3. I look forward to seeing many of you throughout the quarter and provide you another update in January.
最後,我要感謝大家今天的出席。我們正處於重建英特爾的旅程中,我們還有很多工作要做,但我們在第三季取得了紮實的進展。我期待在本季見到你們,並在一月為你們提供另一份更新資訊。
Operator
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.
女士們、先生們,感謝各位參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。