使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Intel Corporation's fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.
感謝您的耐心等待,歡迎參加英特爾公司2025年第四季財報電話會議。(操作說明)提醒各位,今天的節目正在錄製中。
And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Mr. John Pitzer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
現在,我謹向大家介紹今天節目的主持人,投資者關係資深副總裁約翰‧皮策先生。請繼續,先生。
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you, Jonathan, and good afternoon to everyone joining us today. By now, you should have received a copy of the Q4 earnings release and earnings presentation, both of which are available on our investor website, intc.com. For those joining us online today, the earnings presentation is also available in our webcast window.
謝謝你,喬納森,也祝今天到場的各位下午好。現在您應該已經收到第四季度財報和財報演示文稿,這兩份文件都可以在我們的投資者網站 intc.com 上找到。今天在線上參加會議的各位,也可以在我們的網路直播視窗中觀看財報簡報。
I am joined today by our CEO, Lip-Bu Tan; and our CFO, David Zinsner. Lip-Bu will open with comments on our fourth quarter results as well as provide an update on the progress we are making on our strategic priorities. Dave will then discuss our overall financial results, including first quarter guidance, before we transition to answer your questions.
今天與我一同出席的有我們的執行長陳立布(Lip-Bu Tan)和財務長大衛·津斯納(David Zinsner)。Lip-Bu 將首先對第四季度業績發表評論,並介紹我們在策略重點方面取得的進展。接下來,Dave 將討論我們的整體財務業績,包括第一季業績預期,之後我們將過渡到回答各位的問題。
Before we begin, please note that today's discussion does contain forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it, and as such, are subject to various risks and uncertainties. It also contains references to non-GAAP financial measures that we believe provide useful information to our investors.
在開始之前,請注意,今天的討論包含基於我們目前所見環境的前瞻性陳述,因此,這些陳述存在各種風險和不確定性。它還包含一些非GAAP財務指標,我們認為這些指標可以為我們的投資者提供有用的信息。
Our earnings release, most recent annual report on Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC provide more information on specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. They also provide additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures including reconciliations where appropriate to our corresponding GAAP financial measures.
我們的獲利報告、最新的 10-K 表格年度報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件提供了有關可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的具體風險因素的更多資訊。他們還提供了有關我們非GAAP財務指標的更多信息,包括在適當情況下與我們相應的GAAP財務指標的調節表。
With that, let me turn things over to Lip-Bu.
那麼,接下來就交給 Lip-Bu 吧。
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, John, and thank you all for joining us today. 2025 was a year of solid progress. Over the last 10 months, we established the foundation for new Intel, a more focus and execution driven company. We simplify our organization and greatly reduce bureaucracy to improve efficiency and accelerate decision-making.
謝謝約翰,也謝謝各位今天蒞臨。 2025年是取得穩定進展的一年。在過去的 10 個月裡,我們為新英特爾奠定了基礎,使其成為一家更專注和專注的公司。我們簡化組織結構,大幅減少官僚作風,以提高效率並加快決策速度。
We also recruited new leaders from the outside and empower key leaders from within. We strengthened our balance sheet, forged strong new partnership and deepened relationship with existing as well as new customers. I'm encouraged by my conversation with our customers and partners around the world. I'm hearing a clear, consistent message. They see the progress we are making, they want Intel at the table as they navigate their own transformations.
我們也從外部招募了新的領導者,並賦予內部的關鍵領導者。我們增強了資產負債表,建立了牢固的新合作關係,並加深了與現有客戶和新客戶的關係。與世界各地的客戶和合作夥伴的交流令我倍受鼓舞。我聽到的是一個清晰、一致的訊息。他們看到了我們所取得的進步,他們希望在自身轉型過程中能有英特爾的參與。
The opportunity in front of us is meaningful and significant. The era of artificial intelligence is driving unprecedented demand for semiconductor across the entire compute landscapes from AI accelerated and traditional data centers into the network and enterprise domains all the way out to client and edge devices. Rapid deployment of AI workloads across this diverse environment will require heterogeneous silicon solution, leveraging CPU, embedded NPUs discrete and integrated GPU, ASICs and XPUs.
我們面前的機會意義重大。人工智慧時代正在推動整個運算領域對半導體前所未有的需求,從人工智慧加速和傳統資料中心到網路和企業領域,一直到客戶端和邊緣設備。在這種多樣化的環境中快速部署 AI 工作負載需要異質矽解決方案,利用 CPU、嵌入式 NPU、獨立和整合 GPU、ASIC 和 XPU。
In addition, we will need to see innovation in the software stack along with new emerging technologies like photonics, memory interfaces, interconnect and Quantum to name just a few. The breadth of our IP and know-how across silicon design, system level integration, wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging uniquely position us to capitalize on these AI-driven trends, capture sustainable profitable growth. This will not happen overnight, and our execution needs to continue to improve. While we will stay humble as we address the work ahead and we will never be satisfied.
此外,我們還需要看到軟體堆疊的創新,以及光子學、儲存介面、互連和量子等新興技術的發展。我們在矽設計、系統級整合、晶圓製造和先進封裝方面的智慧財產權和專業知識的廣泛性,使我們能夠充分利用這些人工智慧驅動的趨勢,實現可持續的獲利成長。這不會一蹴而就,我們的執行力需要不斷提升。我們將保持謙遜,迎接未來的挑戰,永不滿足。
Our Q4 was another positive step forward. Revenue, gross margin and EPS were all above our guidance. We delivered these results despite supply constraints which meaningfully limited our ability to capture all of the strengths in our underwriting markets. We are working aggressively to address this and better support our customers' needs going forward.
第四季我們又向前邁出了積極的一步。營收、毛利率和每股盈餘均超出預期。儘管供應限制嚴重限制了我們充分發揮承保市場所有優勢的能力,但我們仍然取得了這些成果。我們正在積極努力解決這個問題,以便更好地滿足客戶未來的需求。
Looking ahead for 2026. We will continue to position Intel to capture the significant growth opportunity AI presents across all our businesses. We will do this by strengthening our client franchise, advancing our data center, AI accelerator and ASICs strategies and continue to build trusted US foundry.
展望2026年。我們將繼續調整英特爾的定位,以抓住人工智慧為我們所有業務帶來的巨大成長機會。我們將透過強化客戶基礎、推進資料中心、人工智慧加速器和專用積體電路策略,並繼續打造值得信賴的美國晶圓代工廠來實現這一目標。
Let me start with our Core x86 franchise, which remains the most widely deployed compute architecture in the world. The deployment of AI is only amplifying the importance of x86 from orchestration and control planes to inference edge workloads and agentic AI. In our Client Computing Group, we strengthened our position in both consumer and enterprise notebooks with our Core Ultra Series 3 lineup, formerly known as Panther Lake.
首先,我想談談我們的 Core x86 系列產品,它仍然是世界上部署最廣泛的運算架構。人工智慧的部署只會凸顯 x86 的重要性,從編排和控制平面到推理邊緣工作負載和智慧體人工智慧。在客戶端運算事業部,我們透過 Core Ultra Series 3 產品線(以前稱為 Panther Lake)加強了我們在消費級和企業級筆記型電腦領域的地位。
And build on our most advanced Intel 18A manufacturing process. We committed to deliver our first Series 3 SKU by the end of 2025, and we exceeded that commitment by delivering our first 3 SKUs. While we still have work to do, I'm encouraged by the steady progress on our Intel 18A use, and Naga and his team remain laser-focused on additional improvements as they ramp Series 3 into the high volume needed to meet strong customer demand.
並基於我們最先進的英特爾 18A 製造流程進行生產。我們承諾在 2025 年底前交付首批 3 系列 SKU,而我們超額完成了這項承諾,交付了首批 3 個 SKU。雖然我們還有很多工作要做,但我對我們在 Intel 18A 晶片使用方面取得的穩步進展感到鼓舞,Naga 和他的團隊將繼續專注於進一步的改進,同時將 Series 3 的生產規模擴大到滿足客戶強勁需求所需的高產量。
Our client momentum was on full display at CES earlier this month, where we formally launched Series 3 with our OEM partners, powering over 200 notebook designs Series 3 will be the most broadly adopted and globally available AIPC platform we have ever delivered. Along with our next-generation Nova Lake coming at the end of 2026. We now have a client road map that combines best-in-class performance with cost-optimized solutions giving me confidence that we are on the path of 45% market share and profitability in both notebooks and desktops over the next several years.
在本月初的 CES 展會上,我們與 OEM 合作夥伴正式發布了 Series 3,為 200 多款筆記型電腦設計提供動力,這充分展現了我們客戶的發展勢頭。 Series 3 將成為我們迄今為止推出的應用最廣泛、全球普及度最高的 AIPC 平台。此外,我們的下一代 Nova Lake 將於 2026 年底投入使用。我們現在製定了客戶路線圖,將一流的性能與成本優化的解決方案相結合,這讓我有信心在未來幾年內,我們在筆記型電腦和桌上型電腦領域都將獲得 45% 的市場份額和盈利能力。
In addition, PC become an important part of the AI infrastructure. The search in AI workloads is driving massive demand for data centers but cloud capacity alone cannot meet the scale of inference needed, especially in the power constrained environment. This accelerating the push toward hybrid AI splitting workloads between cloud and client which offers clear advantages in performance, cost and control. We are working closely with ecosystem partners to seamlessly enable hybrid AI, and we are encouraged by the opportunity to grow the installed base and accelerate the refresh rates over time.
此外,個人電腦也成為人工智慧基礎設施的重要組成部分。人工智慧工作負載中的搜尋需求正在推動對資料中心的巨大需求,但僅靠雲端容量無法滿足所需的推理規模,尤其是在電力受限的環境中。這將加速推動混合人工智慧的發展,將工作負載在雲端和客戶端之間進行劃分,從而在效能、成本和控制方面提供明顯的優勢。我們正與生態系統合作夥伴緊密合作,以無縫實現混合人工智慧,並且我們對有機會隨著時間的推移擴大安裝基礎和加快更新速度感到鼓舞。
Let me now turn to DCAI to support our AI objectives, I believe that our traditional server and accelerated road maps must advance together. To reinforce the alignment I centralize our data center and AI businesses under Kevork, ensuring tight coordination across CPUs, GPUs and platform strategy. Demand for traditional servers continues to be very strong, and we are focused on ramping available capacity to support the meaningful uptick we are seeing including partnering with key customers to support their needs beyond 2026.
現在我想談談資料中心人工智慧 (DCAI) 如何支援我們的人工智慧目標,我認為我們傳統的伺服器和加速路線圖必須齊頭並進。為了加強協調,我將我們的資料中心和人工智慧業務集中到 Kevork 旗下,確保 CPU、GPU 和平台策略之間的緊密協調。對傳統伺服器的需求仍然非常強勁,我們正致力於提高可用容量,以支持我們看到的顯著增長,包括與主要客戶合作,以滿足他們 2026 年以後的需求。
The continuing proliferation and diversification of AI workloads is placing significant capacity constraints on traditional and new hardware infrastructure, reinforcing the growing and essential role CPUs play in the AI era. This is and will continue to benefit the ongoing ramp of Granite Rapids as well as our mainstream products Sapphire and Emerald Rapids.
人工智慧工作負載的持續擴散和多樣化為傳統和新型硬體基礎設施帶來了巨大的容量限制,凸顯了 CPU 在人工智慧時代日益增長且至關重要的作用。這將有利於 Granite Rapids 的持續增產,以及我們的主流產品 Sapphire 和 Emerald Rapids 的銷售。
We have also made decisive changes to simplify our server road map focusing resources on the16-channel Diamond Rapids and areas to accelerate the introduction of Coral Rapids, where we can. With Coral Rapids, we will also reintroduce multi-threading back into our data center road map. We also continue to work closely with NVIDIA to build a custom Xeon fully integrated with their NVLink technology to bring best-in-class x86 performance to AI Host Nodes.
我們也做出了果斷的改變,簡化了伺服器路線圖,將資源集中用於 16 通道的 Diamond Rapids 伺服器,並在力所能及的範圍內加快 Coral Rapids 伺服器的推出。隨著 Coral Rapids 的推出,我們也將重新把多執行緒技術引入我們的資料中心發展路線圖中。我們也將繼續與 NVIDIA 緊密合作,建立完全整合其 NVLink 技術的客製化 Xeon,為 AI 主機節點帶來一流的 x86 效能。
Over the last several quarters, we have been developing a broad AI and accelerated strategy that we plan to refine in the coming months. This will include innovative options to integrate our x86 CPU with fixed function and programmable accelerator IP. Our focus is on the emerging wave of AI workloads, reasoning models, agentic and physical AI and inference at scale, where we believe Intel can truly disrupt and differentiate.
在過去的幾個季度裡,我們一直在製定一項廣泛的人工智慧和加速發展策略,我們計劃在未來幾個月內對其進行完善。這將包括將我們的 x86 CPU 與固定功能和可編程加速器 IP 整合的創新方案。我們專注於新興的人工智慧工作負載、推理模型、智慧體和物理人工智慧以及大規模推理,我們相信英特爾能夠在這些領域中真正實現顛覆和差異化。
Our long-term ambition is clear to rebuild Intel as a compute platform of choice for the next era of AI-driven computing, grounded in world-class engineering and accelerated road map and a renew culture of execution. We are also building momentum in ASICs as customers seek purpose-built silicon for AI, networking, cloud workloads. Our combination of design services, IP building blocks and manufacturing capabilities position Intel well to resolve specialized problems at scale. This is not a new area for us, although this is one that I'm committing significantly more focused resources and investment dollars, including leveraging my own experience at Cadence Design supporting and growing this market.
我們的長期目標很明確,那就是將英特爾重新打造為下一代人工智慧驅動運算的首選運算平台,這建立在世界一流的工程技術、加速發展路線圖和全新的執行文化之上。隨著客戶尋求專為人工智慧、網路和雲端工作負載而設計的晶片,我們在 ASIC 領域也正在積蓄力量。英特爾憑藉其設計服務、IP 建造模組和製造能力,能夠大規模地解決專業問題。這對我們來說並不是一個新領域,儘管我正在投入更多集中的資源和投資資金,包括利用我在 Cadence Design 的經驗來支持和發展這個市場。
Finally, we remain focused on the long-term objective of building a world-class wafer and advanced packaging foundry, anchor in trust, consistency and execution. As I have said before, building a foundry business will take time and considerable effort and resources. While still early in our journey, we have hit some earlier important milestones worth highlighting.
最後,我們將繼續專注於打造世界一流的晶圓和先進封裝代工廠的長期目標,並以信任、一致性和執行為基石。正如我之前所說,建立鑄造廠需要時間、大量的努力和資源。雖然我們仍處於發展初期,但我們已經取得了一些值得強調的重要里程碑。
We are now shipping our first products built on Intel 18A, the most advanced semiconductor process developed and manufactured on US soil. As stated earlier, yields continue to improve steadily as we work to ramp the supply needed to meet strong customer demand. In addition, Intel 18AP continued to progress well. and we are engaging with internal and external customers on this note, delivering our 1.0 PDK at the end of the last year.
我們現在開始發售首批採用英特爾 18A 製程製造的產品,這是美國本土開發和製造的最先進的半導體製程。如前所述,隨著我們努力提高供應量以滿足強勁的客戶需求,收益率將持續穩定提高。此外,Intel 18AP 的進展也十分順利。我們正就此與內部和外部客戶進行溝通,並在去年年底交付了 1.0 PDK。
Intel 14A development remains on track. We have taken meaningful steps to simplify our process flow and improve our rate of performance and yield improvement. We are developing a comprehensive IP portfolio on Intel 14A, and we continue to improve our design enablement approach. Importantly, our PDK are now viewed by customers as industry standard.
英特爾 14A 的研發工作仍在按計畫進行。我們已採取切實有效的措施來簡化流程,提高效能和產量提升速度。我們正在開發基於 Intel 14A 的全面 IP 產品組合,並且我們將繼續改進我們的設計賦能方法。重要的是,我們的PDK現在已被客戶視為行業標準。
Engagements with potential external customers on Intel 14A are active. We believe customers will begin to make firm supplier decision starting in the second half of this year and extending into the first half of 2027. We also have the opportunity to provide strong differentiation in advanced packaging, particularly with EMIB and EMIB-T. We are focusing on improving quality and yield to support customer desire for ramps beginning in second half of 2026.
目前正積極與潛在外部客戶就 Intel 14A 進行洽談。我們認為,客戶將從今年下半年開始,一直持續到 2027 年上半年,逐步做出明確的供應商選擇。我們還有機會在先進封裝領域提供強大的差異化優勢,特別是 EMIB 和 EMIB-T。我們正致力於提高品質和產量,以滿足客戶從 2026 年下半年開始逐步提高產能的需求。
In closing, I reflect on 2025, I'm proud of the resilient commitment our team has demonstrated. We exit the year with a stronger foundation and clearer road map for 2026 and beyond. The opportunity ahead is meaningful and significant as AI-driven computing expands all the markets we serve. But I'm also mindful of the challenges ahead of us and transparent about the areas that we are doing well and areas we need to improve. In the short term, I'm disappointed that we are not able to fully meet the demand in our markets.
最後,展望2025年,我為我們團隊所展現出的堅韌不拔的精神感到自豪。今年我們擁有了更堅實的基礎和更清晰的2026年及以後的發展路線圖。隨著人工智慧驅動的運算不斷拓展我們所服務的所有市場,未來的機會意義重大。但我同時也意識到我們面臨的挑戰,並坦誠地說明我們做得好的領域和需要改進的領域。短期內,我感到失望的是,我們無法完全滿足市場需求。
My team and I are working tirelessly to drive efficiency and more output from our fabs. While yields are in line with our internal plans, they are still below what I want them to be. Accelerating yield improvement will be important lever in 2026 as we look to better support our customers. As I said earlier, we are on the multiyear journey. It will take time in resolve but my team and I are committed to rebuilding this iconic American company and increasing the long-term value for our shareholders.
我和我的團隊正在不懈地努力,以提高我們晶圓廠的效率和產量。雖然收益率符合我們的內部計劃,但仍低於我的預期。2026 年,提高產量將是提升顧客滿意度的重要手段,以便更好地為客戶提供支援。正如我之前所說,這是一項多年計劃。這需要時間來下定決心,但我和我的團隊致力於重建這家標誌性的美國公司,並為我們的股東增加長期價值。
I would like to thank my team for their hard work over the course of the last 10 months. I look forward to updating you on our progress as we continue this journey together, including hosting an Investor Day in the second half of this year, at our headquarters in Santa Clara.
我要感謝我的團隊在過去10個月的辛勤工作。我期待著向您報告我們在這一共同旅程中的進展,包括今年下半年在我們位於聖克拉拉的總部舉辦投資者日活動。
Let me now turn it over to Dave to walk through our financials and business trends in more detail.
現在我把麥克風交給戴夫,讓他更詳細地介紹我們的財務狀況和業務趨勢。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Lip-Bu. We remain encouraged by the fundamental drivers of demand across our core markets. Fourth quarter revenue was $13.7 billion at the high end of the range we provided in October. We experienced strong growth across all our businesses, benefiting from the AI infrastructure build-out with AIPC, traditional server and networking revenue, all up double digits sequentially and year over year.
謝謝你,Lip-Bu。我們對核心市場需求的基本驅動因素依然充滿信心。第四季營收為 137 億美元,處於我們 10 月給出的預期範圍的高端。我們所有業務都實現了強勁成長,受益於 AIPC 的 AI 基礎設施建設、傳統伺服器和網路收入,所有業務環比和同比均實現了兩位數成長。
Q4 marks the fifth consecutive quarter of revenue above our guidance even as we navigate industry-wide supply constraints for our key products. Non-GAAP gross margin came in at 37.9% and approximately 140 basis points ahead of guidance on higher revenue and lower inventory reserves, partially offset by increased mix of outsourced client products and the early ramp of Intel 18A to support the launch of Core Ultra Series 3, codename, Panther Lake. We delivered fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.15 versus our guidance of $0.08 and driven by higher revenue, stronger gross margins and continued spending discipline.
第四季是公司連續第五個季度營收超過預期,儘管我們正努力應對產業範圍內主要產品的供應限制。非GAAP毛利率為37.9%,比預期高出約140個基點,主要得益於更高的收入和更低的庫存準備金,但部分被外包客戶產品組合的增加以及英特爾18A的提前投產所抵消,以支持代號為Panther Lake的Core Ultra Series 3的發布。我們第四季非GAAP每股盈餘為0.15美元,高於我們先前預測的0.08美元,這主要得益於更高的收入、更強的毛利率和持續的支出控制。
Q4 operating cash flow was $4.3 billion with gross CapEx of $4 billion in the quarter and positive adjusted free cash flow of $2.2 billion. NVIDIA's $5 billion investment closed in Q4 as expected. For the full year, revenue was $52.9 billion, down slightly year-over-year due to constraints across our own manufacturing network and with external suppliers which limited growth, especially in the second half.
第四季經營現金流為 43 億美元,當季資本支出總額為 40 億美元,調整後自由現金流為 22 億美元。英偉達50億美元的投資計畫如預期在第四季完成。全年營收為 529 億美元,年比略有下降,原因是公司自身製造網路和外部供應商的限制限制了成長,尤其是在下半年。
Full year non-GAAP gross margin was 36.7% up 70 basis points on reduced period charges. Full year non-GAAP EPS was $0.42, up $0.55 year-over-year on lower period charges and improved operating leverage. Specifically, non-GAAP OpEx of $16.5 billion was down 15% versus 2024 as we executed actions to reduce complexity and bureaucracy in the business and drive improved execution.
全年非GAAP毛利率為36.7%,較上年同期費用減少成長70個基點。全年非GAAP每股收益為0.42美元,年增0.55美元,主要得益於期間費用降低及營運槓桿改善。具體而言,由於我們採取措施減少業務的複雜性和官僚主義,並推動提高執行力,非 GAAP 營運支出為 165 億美元,比 2024 年下降了 15%。
For the full year, we generated $9.7 billion in cash from operations and made $17.7 billion of gross capital investments with capital offsets of approximately $6.5 billion. Although adjusted free cash flow was minus $1.6 billion in 2025, we produced $3.1 billion in the second half as cash from operations more than doubled half-on-half.
全年來看,我們從營運活動中產生了 97 億美元的現金,並進行了 177 億美元的總資本投資,資本抵銷額約為 65 億美元。儘管 2025 年調整後的自由現金流為負 16 億美元,但由於下半年經營活動產生的現金流比上半年翻了一番多,我們實現了 31 億美元的自由現金流。
We exit 2025 with $37.4 billion of cash and short-term investments, bolstered by further monetization of Mobileye the completion of our stake sale of Altera to Silver Lake accelerated funding from the US government and investments by the SoftBank Group and NVIDIA. In addition, we repaid $3.7 billion of debt. Looking back, 2025 marked an important year of progress against our key priorities, even as we know we have more work ahead.
到 2025 年底,我們將擁有 374 億美元的現金和短期投資,這得益於 Mobileye 的進一步變現、我們向 Silver Lake 出售 Altera 股份的完成、美國政府加速提供的資金以及軟銀集團和英偉達的投資。此外,我們也償還了37億美元的債務。回顧過去,2025 年標誌著我們在關鍵優先事項方面取得了重要進展,儘管我們知道未來還有更多工作要做。
Internally, we reorganized and rightsized the team to become customer-centric and engineering-focused while shoring up our balance sheet to give us more flexibility to pursue our goals. We've navigated a market that has shifted from tariff-driven uncertainty in the first half to an intense AI-driven demand environment constrained by supply in the second half.
在內部,我們重組並調整了團隊規模,以客戶為中心,以工程技術為重點,同時改善了資產負債表,使我們有更大的靈活性去實現我們的目標。我們已經經歷了市場從上半年關稅驅動的不確定性,轉變為下半年人工智慧驅動的激烈需求環境,但這種需求環境又受到供應的限制。
2025 demonstrated the staying power of the x86 ecosystem across client and data center and the importance of our manufacturing assets as we launched Core Ultra Series 3 on Intel 18A, the most advanced process fully developed and manufactured in the United States. Both create a firm foundation on which to build the new Intel.
2025 年,我們推出了採用英特爾 18A 技術的酷睿 Ultra 系列 3,這充分展現了 x86 生態系統在客戶端和資料中心領域的持久影響力,以及我們製造資產的重要性。英特爾 18A 是目前最先進的工藝,完全在美國開發和製造。兩者都為建立新的英特爾奠定了堅實的基礎。
Moving to segment results. Intel Products Q4 revenue was $12.9 billion, up 2% sequentially. CCG revenue was down 4% quarter-over-quarter even as AIPC units grew 16%, and DCAI was up 15%, reflecting strong demand for traditional server compute. These results reflect our efforts to balance our constrained supply with strong data center demand while maintaining support for our client OEM partners.
接下來查看細分結果。英特爾產品第四季營收為 129 億美元,季增 2%。儘管 AIPC 銷量成長了 16%,DCAI 銷量成長了 15%,但 CCG 營收季減了 4%,這反映出市場對傳統伺服器運算的強勁需求。這些結果反映了我們在供應受限的情況下,努力滿足資料中心的強勁需求,同時繼續支持我們的客戶 OEM 合作夥伴。
Where possible, we're prioritizing our internal wafer supply to data center and leveraging an increased mix of externally sourced wafers in clients. CCG revenue was $8.2 billion and in line with our expectations. We estimate the client consumption TAM was greater than 290 million units in 2025, marking 2 straight years of growth of the post-COVID bottom in 2023 and the fastest TAM growth since 2021.
在條件允許的情況下,我們將優先保證內部晶圓供應給資料中心,並增加客戶從外部採購晶圓的比例。CCG營收為82億美元,符合我們的預期。我們估計,到 2025 年,客戶消費 TAM 將超過 2.9 億單位,標誌著自 2023 年 COVID 疫情後觸底以來連續兩年增長,也是自 2021 年以來 TAM 增長最快的一年。
Within the quarter, CCG launched 3 SKUs of Series 3 ahead of our expectations of one. Performance reviews have been extremely favorable, with up to 27 hours of battery life, a 70% gen-on-gen improvement in graphics and performance on industry standard benchmarks that is 50% to 100% better than peers. DCAI revenue was $4.7 billion, up 15% sequentially, above expectations and the fastest sequential growth this decade.
本季度,CCG 推出了 3 款 3 系列產品,比我們預期的 1 款提早了一步。效能評價非常高,電池續航力長達 27 小時,圖形效能較上一代提升 70%,在業界標準基準測試中比同類產品高出 50% 到 100%。DCAI 營收為 47 億美元,季增 15%,超出預期,是本十年來最快的環比成長。
Revenue would have been meaningfully higher if we had more supply. While the market continues to benefit from more power-efficient CPUs, stimulating a refresh cycle, all indicators point to the growing and essential role CPUs will play within hyperscale and enterprise AI data centers as inference-driven AI usage expands. The world is shifting from human prompted requests to persistent and recursive commands driven by computer-to-computer interactions. The CPU central function coordinating this traffic will drive not only traditional server refresh, but new demand that grows the installed base.
如果我們有更多的供應,收入將會顯著提高。雖然市場繼續受益於更節能的 CPU,刺激了更新換代週期,但所有跡像都表明,隨著推理驅動型 AI 的應用不斷擴展,CPU 將在超大規模和企業級 AI 資料中心中發揮越來越重要的作用。世界正在從人為觸發的請求轉向由電腦間互動驅動的持續性和遞歸性命令。協調此流量的 CPU 中央功能不僅會推動傳統的伺服器更新換代,還會帶來新的需求,從而擴大已安裝的基礎。
In addition, due to the networking demand for the AI infrastructure build-out, our custom ASIC business grew more than 50% in 2025, 26% sequentially and reached an annualized revenue run rate greater than $1 billion in Q4. This strength provides our ASIC team a solid base to pursue a $100 billion TAM opportunity. Operating profit for Intel Products was $3.5 billion, 27% of revenue and down approximately $200 million quarter-over-quarter on an increased mix of outsourced products and seasonally higher operating expenses. Intel Foundry delivered revenue of $4.5 billion, up 6.4% sequentially on increased EUV wafer mix. EUV wafer revenue grew from less than 1% of wafers out in 2023 to greater than 10% in 2025. External foundry revenue was $222 million in the quarter driven by projects with the US government and the deconsolidation of Altera.
此外,由於人工智慧基礎設施建設的網路需求,我們的客製化 ASIC 業務在 2025 年增長超過 50%,環比增長 26%,並在第四季度實現了超過 10 億美元的年化收入。這項優勢為我們的ASIC團隊提供了堅實的基礎,以掌握1000億美元的潛在市場機會。英特爾產品業務的營業利潤為 35 億美元,佔營收的 27%,由於外包產品佔比增加以及季節性營運費用增加,季減約 2 億美元。英特爾晶圓代工業務營收達 45 億美元,季增 6.4%,主要得益於 EUV 晶圓佔比的提高。EUV晶圓收入佔晶圓總收入的比例從2023年的不到1%增長到2025年的超過10%。本季外部代工收入為 2.22 億美元,主要得益於與美國政府的項目以及 Altera 的剝離。
Intel Foundry operating loss in Q4 was $2.5 billion and $188 million worse quarter over quarter driven by the early ramp of Intel 18A. Within the quarter, Intel Foundry met key 18A and 14A milestones. With the official launch of Core Ultra Series 3, Intel Foundry is the only semiconductor manufacturer in the world shipping gate-all-around transistors with backside power for revenue. These advanced wafers are rolling off our production lines in Oregon and Arizona here in the United States.
英特爾晶圓代工業務第四季營運虧損為 25 億美元,較上一季虧損 1.88 億美元,主要原因是英特爾 18A 晶片提前投產。本季度,英特爾晶圓代工實現了 18A 和 14A 的關鍵里程碑。隨著 Core Ultra 系列 3 的正式發布,英特爾晶圓代工成為全球唯一一家能夠出貨採用背面供電的全包圍柵極電晶體並實現盈利的半導體製造商。這些先進的晶圓正從我們位於美國俄勒岡州和亞利桑那州的生產線上源源不斷地生產。
Finally, our continued progress on Intel 14A demonstrates our commitment to research and develop the world's most important technology on US soil.
最後,我們在 Intel 14A 上的持續進展表明了我們致力於在美國本土研發世界上最重要的技術的決心。
Turning to All Other. Revenue came in at $574 million and was down 42% sequentially due to the Q3 25 deconsolidation of Altera. The primary components of All Other in Q4 were Mobileye and IMS. Collectively, the category delivered an operating loss of $8 million. I'm pleased with the early momentum at Altera as an independent company with a new leadership team.
轉向其他一切。由於 2025 年第三季 Altera 的業績被剝離,營收為 5.74 億美元,季減 42%。第四季「其他所有」類別的主要組成部分是 Mobileye 和 IMS。該類別累計虧損 800 萬美元。我對 Altera 作為一家擁有全新領導團隊的獨立公司所取得的早期發展勢頭感到滿意。
Their industry-leading programmable fabric, developer productivity-driven software tools, and a large installed base positions them well to drive long-term value creation. Now turning to guidance. During the second half of 2025, we supported strong demand for our products with intra-quarter wafer production and inventory on hand. As we enter 2026, our buffer inventory is depleted and the mix shift in wafers towards servers, which began in Q3 will not come out of fab until late Q1 '26. As a result, and as we stated last quarter, our internal supply constraints are most acute in Q1.
他們業界領先的可編程架構、以開發者生產力為導向的軟體工具以及龐大的用戶群,使他們能夠很好地推動長期價值創造。現在進入指導環節。2025 年下半年,我們透過季度內晶圓生產和充足的庫存,滿足了市場對我們產品的強勁需求。進入 2026 年,我們的緩衝庫存已經耗盡,從第三季開始的晶圓向伺服器晶圓的轉變,要到 2026 年第一季末才能從晶圓廠出來。因此,正如我們上個季度所述,我們的內部供應限制在第一季最為嚴重。
In light of these dynamics, we are forecasting a Q1 revenue range of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion. The midpoint of $12.2 billion reflects a lower end of seasonal Q1. Within the Intel Products, we forecast a more pronounced revenue decline in CCG than in DCAI as we continue to prioritize internal supply to our server end markets. We expect Intel Foundry revenue up double digits quarter over quarter, helped by continued mix shift to EUV wafers and Intel 18A pricing.
鑑於這些動態,我們預測第一季營收將在 117 億美元至 127 億美元之間。122億美元的中位數反映了第一季季節性數據的下限。在英特爾產品方面,我們預測 CCG 的營收下降幅度將比 DCAI 更為明顯,因為我們將繼續優先確保伺服器終端市場的內部供應。我們預計,在 EUV 晶圓持續增幅和英特爾 18A 定價策略的推動下,英特爾晶圓代工業務的營收將較上季成長。
At the midpoint of $12.2 billion, we forecast a gross margin of approximately 34.5% with a tax rate of 11% and breakeven EPS, all on a non-GAAP basis. Gross margin is down sequentially due to lower revenue, increased 18A volumes and product mix. Let me take a few moments to provide some color for your full year 2026 model. First, from a revenue perspective, we expect our factory network to improve available supply beginning in Q2 and for each of the remaining quarters in 2026. Within the server market, customer feedback and our own market intelligence points to the likelihood of a strong year of growth for DCAI.
我們預測,在 122 億美元的中間值基礎上,毛利率約為 34.5%,稅率為 11%,每股盈餘將達到損益兩平點(以上皆為非 GAAP 準則)。由於收入下降、18A銷量增加以及產品組合變化,毛利率環比下降。讓我花幾分鐘時間為你們的 2026 年全年車型增添一些色彩。首先,從收入角度來看,我們預計我們的工廠網路將從 2026 年第二季開始改善可用供應,並在 2026 年剩餘的每個季度持續改善。在伺服器市場方面,客戶回饋和我們自身的市場情報都表明,DCAI 很可能迎來強勁成長的一年。
Finally, client CPU inventory is lean, and there is excitement for Series 3. In contrast, over the last several months, industry-wide supply for key components like DRAM, NAND and substrates has come under increasing pressure due to intense demand to support the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure. Rising component pricing is a dynamic we continue to watch closely, especially relative to the client market and could limit our revenue opportunity this year. For OpEx, we target 2026 operating expenses of $16 billion. We expect noncontrolling interest or NCI to net to approximately $325 million in Q1 and be approximately $1.2 billion for the year on a GAAP basis.
最後,客戶端 CPU 庫存不足,人們對 Series 3 充滿期待。相較之下,在過去的幾個月裡,由於人工智慧基礎設施的快速擴張,對DRAM、NAND和基板等關鍵組件的產業供應面臨越來越大的壓力。零件價格上漲是我們持續密切關注的動態,尤其是在客戶市場方面,這可能會限制我們今年的收入機會。對於營運支出,我們的目標是到 2026 年實現 160 億美元的營運支出。我們預計,以美國通用會計準則 (GAAP) 計算,第一季非控制權益 (NCI) 淨額約為 3.25 億美元,全年約為 12 億美元。
NCI is expected to grow meaningfully again in fiscal 2027. Our share count is forecast to be 5.1 billion shares in Q1 and grow in line with our stock-based compensation going forward. As we think about our capital expenditures for 2026, we're working to balance our ability to drive capital efficiencies with our need to respond to the demand signals we're receiving. Previously, we said CapEx would be down but are now planning for a range of flat to down slightly and for expenditures to be more weighted to the first half.
NCI 預計在 2027 財年將再次實現顯著成長。我們預計第一季股票數量將達到 51 億股,並將繼續隨著股票選擇權激勵計畫的實施而成長。在考慮 2026 年的資本支出時,我們正在努力平衡提高資本效率的能力與回應我們收到的需求訊號的需求。之前我們說過資本支出會下降,但現在計劃持平或略有下降,並且支出將更多地集中在上半年。
As a reminder, CapEx in 2026 would be to support demand in 2027 and beyond. We expect to generate positive adjusted free cash flow for the full year, and we're planning to retire all $2.5 billion of maturities as they come due this year.
需要提醒的是,2026 年的資本支出將用於支持 2027 年及以後的需求。我們預計全年將產生正的調整後自由現金流,並計劃在今年到期時償還所有 25 億美元的到期債務。
I'll wrap up by saying that Q4 was another solid quarter to mark our fifth consecutive quarter of overdelivering to our guide. We exit 2025 increasingly confident in the long-term sustainability of the end markets we serve. We believe our improved balance sheet, thanks in part to the trust of our strategic partners, combined with the strong talent we have will enable us to meaningfully participate in the next wave of computing as the industry pushes for returns on their AI investments. I look forward to providing you our shareholders an update on what this future means to you at our Analyst Day later this year.
最後我想說,第四季業績依然穩健,這是我們連續第五個季度超出預期。展望 2025 年,我們對所服務終端市場的長期永續發展越來越有信心。我們相信,由於戰略合作夥伴的信任,我們改善後的資產負債表,再加上我們擁有的強大人才,將使我們能夠有意義地參與下一波運算浪潮,因為該行業正在努力從其人工智慧投資中獲得回報。我期待在今年稍後的分析師日上,向各位股東報告這個未來對你們的意義。
With that, I'll turn it over to John to start the Q&A.
接下來,我會把問答環節交給約翰。
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
(Event Instructions)
(活動須知)
With that, Jonathan, can we please take the first question?
那麼,喬納森,我們可以開始第一個問題了嗎?
Operator
Operator
Ross Seymor, Deutsche Bank.
羅斯·西摩,德意志銀行。
Ross Seymore - Research Analyst
Ross Seymore - Research Analyst
I guess the first one is two quick parts. It's both on supply. In the short term, are the yield improvements and the other actions you're taking sufficient to address just typical seasonality throughout the year given that usually the first quarter would be the low point on revenues?
我想第一個部分可以分成兩個簡短的部分。兩者都取決於供應情況。短期來看,考慮到通常第一季是收入的低谷,您採取的收益率提升和其他措施是否足以應對全年典型的季節性波動?
And then perhaps more importantly, longer term on the supply side, you guys seem more confident in your 14A, your 18A, the customer engagements, your internal road map, when would you decide to loosen up the reins on the CapEx side of things so that you could address structurally higher demand going forward with more internal supply?
更重要的是,從長遠來看,在供應方面,你們似乎對你們的 14A、18A、客戶互動、內部路線圖更有信心,那麼你們什麼時候會決定放鬆對資本支出方面的控制,以便能夠透過更多的內部供應來應對未來結構性更高的需求?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Ross, for the question. So on the short-term supply, certainly, improving yields and throughput are a great driver of supply increases. In fact, it's got a great ROI to it because it doesn't require any incremental capital. So that's what Lip-Bu and I are actively working on to improve and we're reasonably confident that there's a good trajectory there.
謝謝羅斯的提問。因此,就短期供應而言,提高產量和產能無疑是供應增加的重要驅動因素。事實上,它的投資報酬率很高,因為它不需要任何額外的資金投入。所以,這就是我和 Lip-Bu 正在積極努力改進的地方,我們相當有信心,這方面會有一個好的發展方向。
That said, when you look at CapEx, it's a little bit more nuanced than just it's going to be flat to slightly down. It's actually down significantly in space. So we're spending a lot less in space. We think we have a good footprint in terms of cleanroom. And what we're devoting more of our dollars to is tool. So we are ramping up tool spending quite a bit in '26 relative to '25 to address this supply shortfall as well.
也就是說,當你審視資本支出時,情況就比簡單地說它會持平或略有下降要複雜一些。實際上,它在太空中的位置已經大幅下降。所以我們現在在太空上的花費大大減少了。我們認為我們在無塵室方面已經取得了不錯的成績。而我們投入更多資金的,是工具。因此,為了解決供應短缺問題,我們在 2026 年比 2025 年大幅增加了工具的支出。
And in fact, every quarter, we're seeing kind of wafer start increases pretty much across the board across Intel 7, Intel 3 and 18A. So all 3 of them every quarter improve and get better to address the supply. Like I said, we think we -- things will certainly improve in 2Q but we won't be completely out of the woods here. But as we progress through the year, we think things will get better and better. Do you want me to take 14A thing or --
事實上,每季我們都看到 Intel 7、Intel 3 和 18A 的晶圓開工量幾乎全面增加。因此,這三者每季都在改進和完善,以解決供應問題。正如我所說,我們認為——第二季度情況肯定會好轉,但我們還不能完全擺脫困境。但隨著時間的推移,我們認為情況會越來越好。你要我做14A那件事嗎?--
Yeah. On 14A, Lip-Bu has been very direct with us on all of this. He does not want to spend on capacity on 14A only spend on the kind of TD spend or R&D spend associated with 14A even in the fab until we have customers secured. We've talked about, the likelihood is, our customers on14A their window to secure or for us to secure them will be in the back half of this year and in the first half of next year. And so once visibility improves there, we'll start to unlock the spend on 14A.
是的。在 14A 號公路上,Lip-Bu 對我們說了所有這些事情,非常直接。他不想在 14A 的產能上投入資金,只想在晶圓廠內投入與 14A 相關的技術開發或研發資金,直到我們獲得客戶為止。我們已經討論過,我們的客戶在 14A 上安裝安全窗或讓我們來安裝安全窗的可能性,將在今年下半年和明年上半年實現。因此,一旦那裡的能見度提高,我們就會開始釋放 14A 的支出。
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I can just add a little bit more. I think on the yield improvement, which we see in the 7%, 8% yield improvement per month. I think it's more in focus in the variation, make sure that we can be more consistent delivery and also the defect density at the end so that we can ship quality wafer to the customer. So I think all those are very important for our PC client, Panther Lake and then also for the 18A and 14A development. So I think, all in all, I see improvement but still not quite to the industry-leading standard yet.
我還可以再加一點。我認為收益率有所提高,我們看到每月收益率提高了 7% 到 8%。我認為重點在於控制變化,確保我們能夠更穩定地交付產品,並降低最終的缺陷密度,以便我們能夠向客戶交付高品質的晶圓。所以我認為所有這些對於我們的 PC 客戶 Panther Lake 以及 18A 和 14A 開發項目都非常重要。所以總的來說,我認為有所進步,但還沒有達到行業領先標準。
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Ross, do you have a quick follow-up?
羅斯,你還有什麼後續問題嗎?
Ross Seymore - Research Analyst
Ross Seymore - Research Analyst
Yeah, I do. The gross margin side, Dave, you gave some puts and takes for the full year on a bunch of different metrics but you didn't mention gross margin. How should we think about that? And forgive me, the 40% to 60% incremental, I know you guys give kind of -- you can drive a truck through. So anything perhaps just a little more precision directionally, it would be helpful.
是的,我有。戴夫,關於毛利率方面,你對全年的各種指標做出了一些預測,但你沒有提到毛利率。我們該如何看待這個問題?請原諒我,40% 到 60% 的增量,我知道你們給的有點——你可以開一輛卡車穿過。所以,如果方向能再精確一些就更好了。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I'm not even sure the math is that good on this time around. When you look at Q1, the gross margin decline in Q1, there's two main components. Obviously, revenue coming down with a largely fixed cost business is going to affect gross margins. But the other piece of it is Panther Lake, while the cost structure improves from Q4 to Q1, it's still dilutive to the corporate average, and it's a bigger percentage of the mix. So it actually has a relatively negative impact on gross margin.
我什至不確定這次的數學計算是否準確。從第一季來看,第一季毛利率下降主要有兩個原因。顯然,對於一家主要依賴固定成本營運的企業來說,收入下降必然會影響毛利率。但另一部分是 Panther Lake,雖然其成本結構從第四季度到第一季有所改善,但仍會稀釋公司平均水平,而且在整體組成中所佔比例更大。所以它實際上對毛利率有相對負面影響。
So that's partly why we're guiding down. There's some mixed things going on as well. I think as we progress through the year, the 2 things should benefit us. One, we improve our supply, ergo, that should improve our revenue picture. On top of that, Panther Lake's cost structure gets better and better. Look, we talked about the incremental improvement every month, we're going to see in yields. We're working on the throughput as well.
所以,這也是我們引導遊客往下行進的部分原因。目前也存在一些複雜的情況。我認為隨著時間的推移,這兩件事應該會對我們有利。第一,我們改善了供應,因此,這應該會改善我們的收入狀況。除此之外,Panther Lake 的成本結構也越來越好。你看,我們之前討論過每月收益率都會逐步提高。我們也在努力提高吞吐量。
So those two things combined, that should help in terms of cost structure and make this more of an accretive product to us as opposed to a diluted product. And I think that will be a lot of what is the story around gross margins for the year. There's still mix and mix can go in any different direction depending on how things play out. But what we're largely focused on for the kind of the next 12 months is driving the cost structure of these products that we're building to improve the margins. We know that 34.5% is by no means an acceptable level of gross margins. And we're actively working it, first to get it to 40% and then once we get it there, we'll move to a new target.
因此,這兩件事結合起來,應該有助於改善成本結構,使之成為對我們來說更具增值性的產品,而不是稀釋收益的產品。我認為這將很大程度上決定今年的毛利率走勢。目前仍存在混合的可能性,而且混合的方向可能會根據事態發展而有所不同。但在接下來的 12 個月裡,我們主要關注的是優化我們正在開發的這些產品的成本結構,以提高利潤率。我們知道,34.5% 的毛利率絕不是一個可以接受的水準。我們正在積極努力,首先要達到 40%,一旦達到這個目標,我們就會轉向新的目標。
Operator
Operator
Tim Arcuri, UBS.
提姆‧阿庫裡,瑞銀集團。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Dave, I'm wondering in the guidance, you're guiding to $12.2 billion, but I'm wondering if you can kind of pro forma that for us like if you could meet all the demand, what would the kind of unconstrained guidance be for March?
Dave,我想問一下,在你們的業績指引中,你們預計營收將達到 122 億美元,但我想知道,如果能夠滿足所有需求,你們能否為我們做一些預測,比如,在不受限制的情況下,3 月份的業績指引會是多少?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. It's a squishy figure to figure out, Tim, but I would tell you that if you look at kind of that $12.2 billion relative to the $13.7 billion, we posted in the fourth quarter, and look at normal seasonality. It's in the range of seasonal but it's at the low end of that range of seasonal, we'd be well above seasonal if we had all the revenue or supply, I should say, to hit the revenue.
是的。提姆,這個數字很難精確計算,但我可以告訴你,如果你看看 122 億美元與我們在第四季度公佈的 137 億美元之間的對比,再考慮正常的季節性因素。雖然它處於季節性波動的範圍內,但它處於季節性波動範圍的下限。如果我們有足夠的收入或供應(應該說是供應),達到預期的收入水平,我們的業績將會遠高於季節性波動水平。
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Tim, do you have a follow-up?
提姆,你還有後續問題嗎?
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
I do, thanks. Lip-Bu, there's obviously a lot of excitement about your foundry business. It sounds like we might get a few customer announcements maybe in the second half. But I just wanted to ask you, what do you define as like success in that business. I think prior to you arriving, the mantra was sort of to be number two, the number two foundry player by 2030.
是的,謝謝。Lip-Bu,顯然大家對你的鑄造業務感到非常興奮。聽起來我們可能會在下半年收到一些客戶公告。但我只是想問你,你如何定義這個產業的成功?我認為在你到來之前,我們的口號是到 2030 年成為第二大鑄造廠。
If you look at most of the forecast for that number two player at somewhere in the range of like $30 billion and revenue up by that time. Is this still kind of a reasonable bogey that you're shooting for? And like what do you consider as a successful outcome for that.
如果你看一下大多數對排名第二的玩家的預測,你會發現他們的規模大約在 300 億美元左右,屆時收入也會成長。你現在追求的目標分數還算合理嗎?那麼,你認為怎樣的結果才算成功呢?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thanks,. Good question. So I think we are determined to commit to drive the world-class foundry business. So I think, first of all, on the 14A, I think we clearly, development is on track. We like what we see. And we simplify the whole process flow. Most important is kind of building up the IP portfolio so that we can serve the customer.
是的。謝謝,。問得好。所以我認為我們決心致力於發展世界一流的代工廠業務。所以我認為,首先,關於 14A,我認為很明顯,開發工作正在按計劃進行。我們很喜歡我們所看到的。我們簡化了整個流程。最重要的是要不斷完善知識產權組合,以便更好地服務客戶。
Some of the IP is very critical in order to serve the customer. The other part is on the yield and improvement. We see a trend of improvement, and we also see the valuations getting better. I think in the long run, I think clearly, we are kind of anticipating the -- we have heavy engaging in some of the key customers. We think that the second half of this year, they're going to indicate to us what kind of capacity firm commitment so that we can deploy the capacity CapEx to really build that.
部分智慧財產權對於服務客戶至關重要。另一部分是關於產量和改進。我們看到了一種改善的趨勢,而且估值也在不斷提高。我認為從長遠來看,很明顯,我們正在積極預測——我們已經與一些關鍵客戶進行了深入的接觸。我們認為,今年下半年,他們會向我們表明具體的產能承諾,以便我們能夠部署產能資本支出,真正實現這一目標。
So I think all in all, I think it's a service business, We really built a trust and the consistency we're able to deliver. And then we have the PDK on the 14A first quarter, 0.5. And then we're starting to engage with customers with the key products that they want to run with us. So I think all in process. I think in the second half of this year, we were able to have the commitment that we can really drive the scale of the operation.
所以總的來說,我認為這是一家服務型企業,我們真正建立了信任,並且能夠始終如一地提供服務。然後,我們在 14A 第一季推出了 PDK,金額為 0.5。之後,我們開始與客戶溝通,了解他們希望與我們合作的關鍵產品。所以我覺得一切都在進行中。我認為在今年下半年,我們能夠投入足夠的精力,真正擴大營運規模。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Another early indicator, I think, of success in the foundry is going to be advanced packaging. And we'll start to see that revenue come in even before we start to see meaningful wafer revenue. And I think as I was talking to investors over the past kind of 12 to 18 months, I was thinking that those opportunities would be measured in hundreds of millions of dollars and wafer opportunities would be measured in billions.
我認為,晶圓代工產業成功的另一個早期指標將是先進的封裝技術。甚至在我們開始看到有意義的晶圓收入之前,我們就會開始看到其他收入的到來。在過去 12 到 18 個月裡,我與投資者交談時,我認為這些機會將以數億美元來衡量,而晶圓機會將以數十億美元來衡量。
I'd say some of the early customer engagements suggest that we'll be well north of $1 billion on many of these opportunities for advanced packaging. So they're way more exciting than even I had expected. And it's because we have really good technology there that's very differentiated and supports AI in a way that is particularly special.
我認為,一些早期的客戶互動表明,在先進包裝的許多領域,我們的收入將遠遠超過 10 億美元。所以它們比我預想的還要精彩得多。這是因為我們擁有非常優秀的技術,這種技術非常獨特,能夠以特別的方式支援人工智慧。
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I think the EMIB-T, I think, is a very big differentiator for us. And then clearly, we have a couple of customers willing to even prepay the subscript -- because subscript is very big supply shortage and then they're willing to share with us. That means that show the commitment they are going to be working with us.
我認為EMIB-T對我們來說是一個非常大的差異化優勢。顯然,我們有一些客戶甚至願意預付訂閱費用——因為訂閱費供應非常短缺,所以他們願意與我們分享。這意味著要展現他們與我們合作的決心。
Operator
Operator
Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.
喬摩爾,摩根士丹利。
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Yeah. I wonder if you could talk about server prospects. You sort of talked about some of the challenges of Diamond Rapids not having symmetric multi-threading and Copper Rapids is going to be important. Can you give us a time frame on Copper Rapids and sort of what's your expectation for the potential for market share puts and takes as you wait for that to come?
是的。我想請您談談伺服器的發展前景。您剛才提到了 Diamond Rapids 缺乏對稱多執行緒帶來的一些挑戰,而 Copper Rapids 將非常重要。您能否為我們提供 Copper Rapids 專案的預計時間表,以及在等待專案啟動期間,您對市場份額的潛在波動有何預期?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, good question. So I think, first of all, I would centralize the data center and AI under Kevork that I hire in to help us to build that. He already built the team and then include some of the -- recruit some of the talent on board. I think the more important right now, we are laser-focused in 16 channels Diamond Rapid and we simplify the product road map.
嗯,問得好。所以我認為,首先,我會把資料中心和人工智慧集中在我聘請的 Kevork 的領導下,幫助我們建立這個系統。他已經組建了團隊,然後招募了一些人才加入。我認為目前更重要的是,我們正專注於發展 Diamond Rapid 的 16 個管道,並簡化產品路線圖。
And then the other part is accelerate the introduction of Coral Rapid. And Coral Rapid will have the reintroduced the multi-thread into our data center workforce. So I think overall, we are very positive. The team is in place now. The road map is very clear, and we are very decisive for doing that and are laser focus on the Diamond Rapid 16-channel and also accelerate the Coral Rapid introduction.
另一方面,也要加快珊瑚快速推廣應用。Coral Rapid 將把多執行緒技術重新引入到我們的資料中心員工隊伍中。所以總的來說,我認為我們非常樂觀。團隊已經組成完畢。路線圖非常清晰,我們對此非常果斷,並將重點放在 Diamond Rapid 16 通道上,同時加快 Coral Rapid 的推出。
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Joe, you have a quick follow-up?
喬,你還有什麼後續問題嗎?
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Joseph Moore - Analyst
Yeah, sure. And just in terms of the mix for the rest of the year, are you able to move wafers towards data center away from PC? Is that something that you're thinking about and just -- it seems like the constraints are at their worst point in Q1 and get better, but I assume you're still constrained beyond that. Are you able to move the mix towards data center?
當然可以。至於今年剩餘時間的市場組合,你們能否將晶圓從個人電腦領域轉向資料中心領域?這是你正在考慮的問題嗎? ——看起來第一季的限制最為嚴重,之後會有所改善,但我估計在那之後你仍然會受到限制。您能否將業務重心轉移到資料中心?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
We're absolutely constrained, Joe. So what we're doing within client we're focusing on the midand high end and not as focused on the low end. And then to the extent we have excess, we're pushing all of that into the data center space to meet that customer demand. And I think you'll see some share adjustments based on that because our primary focus is to our main customers. And obviously, we have important customers in the data center side. We have important OEM customers. on both data center and client and that needs to be our priority to get the limited supply we have to those customers.
喬,我們確實受到很多限制。所以我們目前在客戶方面主要關注中高端市場,而對低階市場關注較少。然後,如果還有剩餘資源,我們會把所有這些資源都投入到資料中心領域,以滿足客戶的需求。我認為你會看到基於此的一些份額調整,因為我們的主要關注點是我們的主要客戶。顯然,我們在資料中心領域也擁有重要的客戶。我們擁有重要的OEM客戶,涵蓋資料中心和客戶端,因此,我們必須優先考慮如何將有限的供應保障給這些客戶。
Operator
Operator
Ben Reitzes, Melius.
本‧雷茨斯,梅利烏斯。
Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst
Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst
My first question is about seasonality throughout the year. So Dave and Lip-Bu. I mean you're subseasonal in the first quarter, you said you'd be well above seasonal if you had the supply. So what does that imply for 2Q to 4Q? Should we model that above seasonal or are the constraints in PC so much that we shouldn't, thanks.
我的第一個問題是關於全年季節性變化的問題。所以戴夫和利普布。我的意思是,你第一季的銷量低於季節性水平,你說過如果供應充足,銷量會遠遠超出季節性水平。那麼這對第二季到第四季意味著什麼?我們是否應該對上述季節性因素進行建模,還是說PC的限制太多,我們不應該這樣做?謝謝。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, I mean, we would expect to be better than seasonal through the year if we can get the supply to where we think we can as we get into 2Q. So that's correct.
是的,我的意思是,如果我們能在第二季將供應量提升到我們認為可以達到的水平,我們預計全年的供應量都會比季節性供應量更好。沒錯。
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Ben, do you have a follow-up question?
本,你還有後續問題嗎?
Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst
Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst
Sure. I wanted to ask about, with regard to the hyperscaler situation in servers. It's -- in terms of your momentum there, is this mostly driven by hyperscaler? Or do you feel like the shortage is mostly impacting them, making you sub seasonal? Or is the enterprise demand also are you seeing it there?
當然。我想問一下關於伺服器超大規模資料中心的情況。就你們的發展動能而言,這主要是由超大規模資料中心所推動的嗎?還是你覺得短缺主要影響的是他們,導致你們的生產受到季節性因素的影響?或者,您也看到了企業方面的需求?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I think, let me answer that question. I think the hyperscaler is very important for us to scale the business, and I spent a lot of time with the hyperscalers. I think a couple of thing. One, clearly, message from them is the CPU actually is driving a lot of that business in terms of the different workloads that they're driving. So I think it's very encouraging to see that they are willing to commit long-term agreement. So we really prioritize deployment. So that something is very positive.
是的。我想,讓我來回答這個問題。我認為超大規模資料中心對我們擴大業務規模非常重要,我花了很多時間與超大規模資料中心供應商打交道。我認為有兩件事。很明顯,他們傳達的訊息是,CPU 實際上在驅動各種不同的工作負載方面發揮著重要作用。所以我覺得他們願意簽訂長期協議是非常令人鼓舞的。所以我們非常重視部署。所以這是一件非常正面的事情。
And then secondly, I think they are very excited about working with us in terms of decide working on the silicon the software and the system level engagement, and that something is also very exciting. So all in all, I think they are very strong. The workload, they shared with us what they're looking at and what can be helping them. And also the ASIC design also is an opportunity for us.
其次,我認為他們非常興奮能與我們合作,共同決定在晶片、軟體和系統層面進行合作,這也很令人興奮。總而言之,我認為他們非常強大。他們向我們介紹了工作量,包括他們正在研究的內容以及哪些方面可以幫助他們。此外,ASIC 設計對我們來說也是一個機會。
They also want to build some of the purpose-built silicon with the Xeon CPU included. And also, they are very interested about overall, how do you use the advanced packaging and then to make it more complete. I think overall, I think it's a great opportunity for us to work with them.
他們也希望製造一些包含至強CPU的專用矽晶片。此外,他們也非常關注如何利用先進的包裝技術使其更加完善。總的來說,我認為這是一個與我們合作的絕佳機會。
Operator
Operator
Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.
Stacy Rasgon,伯恩斯坦研究公司。
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
For my first question, I wanted to dig a little bit into the segments. So I mean if I sort of run the math, like Mobileye is going to be up and the Altera foundry revenues maybe close to a couple of hundred million dollars I mean both DCIA and client to be down pretty meaningfully. And the client's down more -- I mean maybe DCIA is down high single digits and clients' down like midteens. But I guess, number one, is that true?
我的第一個問題是,我想深入探討各個部分。所以我的意思是,如果我稍微算一下,Mobileye 的收入將會成長,而 Altera 代工廠的收入可能會接近幾億美元,這意味著 DCIA 和客戶端的收入都會大幅下降。客戶的跌幅更大——我的意思是,DCIA 的跌幅可能接近兩位數,而客戶的跌幅可能達到十幾幅。但我想問的是,首先,這是真的嗎?
And number two, like why should data center be down so much given where the demand is and given where you're prioritizing, like why would I expect data center units to be down? It seems like they have to be down pretty meaningfully in Q1.
第二,考慮到需求所在以及你們的優先考慮事項,為什麼資料中心會如此頻繁地宕機?我為什麼會期望資料中心單元宕機?看來他們第一季的業績肯定會大幅下滑。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. I mean, both will be down as a function of supply. Obviously, we're shifting as much as we can over the data center to meet the high demand. But we can't completely vacate the client market. So we're trying to support both as best we can and obviously work our way out of this supply issue. I do believe that the first quarter is the trough. We will improve supply in the second quarter.
是的。我的意思是,兩者都會隨著供應量的減少而下降。顯然,我們正在盡可能地將資料轉移到資料中心,以滿足高需求。但我們不能完全放棄客戶市場。所以我們正在盡我們所能地支持雙方,並且顯然也在努力解決這個供應問題。我確實認為第一季是低谷期。我們將在第二季改善供應情況。
And part of the challenge is that in the third and fourth quarter of '25, we lived off of supply, but we also had a reasonable chunk of fixed finished goods inventory to also work through. Unfortunately, that is now down to kind of 40% of what it was at peak levels. So we don't have that to rely on. So it's just literally hand to mouth, what we can get out of the fab and what we can get to customers is how we're managing it.
部分挑戰在於,在 2025 年第三季和第四季度,我們依靠供應維持運營,但我們也有相當一部分固定成品庫存需要消化。可惜的是,現在已經下降到峰值水準的 40% 左右了。所以我們沒有這個可以依靠的東西。所以,我們真的只能勉強維持,工廠能生產多少,以及能給客戶生產多少,這就是我們目前的狀況。
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Stacy, do you have a follow-up question?
史泰西,你還有後續問題嗎?
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
Stacy Rasgon - Analyst
I do. I mean just to push on that a little bit. I mean, you guys have your own factories, like why are you in the inventory situation that you're in? And then -- I mean, even if you look at -- I get the whole idea about finished goods versus other stuff. But I mean like you have $11.6 billion of inventory. And yet, it's not in the right place at the right time to sit like how does that happen?
我願意。我的意思是,再進一步推進一下。我的意思是,你們都有自己的工廠,為什麼會陷入現在這種庫存積壓的困境?然後——我的意思是,即使你看看——我完全理解成品與其他東西的區別。但我的意思是,比如說你們有價值 116 億美元的庫存。然而,它卻沒能在正確的時間出現在正確的地點,讓人不禁思考:這是怎麼回事?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
That's largely a win. I'll tell you, Stacy. I think the biggest thing is that we if you go back six months or so ago and looked at what the outlook was. Core count was absolutely looking like it would increase. but the units were not expected to increase. And every hyperscaler customer we talked to was signaling that. And obviously, it has rapidly increased over the third and fourth quarter. And in talking to a few of them right before this call, I got the feeling like it was going to be a story we'd feel for several years.
這基本上算是一場勝利。我告訴你,史黛西。我認為最重要的是,如果你回顧一下大約六個月前的情況,看看當時的情況。核心數量肯定會增加,但預計單位數量不會增加。我們訪談過的每一位超大規模資料中心客戶都表達了同樣的觀點。顯然,第三季和第四季這一數字迅速增長。在這通電話之前,我和其中幾個人聊過,我感覺這會是一個我們會持續感受到好幾年的故事。
And yes, the advantage we have is we do have our own fab so we can squeeze out supply as much as possible, which is what we're working on, but we directionally weren't managing the supply to an expectation that there would be unit increased that significantly in data center.
是的,我們的優勢在於我們擁有自己的晶圓廠,因此我們可以盡可能地提高供應量,這也是我們正在努力的方向,但我們並沒有根據數據中心設備需求量大幅增長的預期來管理供應。
Operator
Operator
Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.
Vivek Arya,美國銀行證券。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
For the first one, Lip-Bu, I'm curious, when do you think Intel should start getting any credit for external foundry efforts because you mentioned that you might hear of awards in the second half of this year. I assume that you start building the capacity for that, right, sometime late this year or next year. So when do you actually start to get a decent amount of revenue from those customers. And I think you mentioned that building this business will take incremental amount of resources. So what level of external foundry revenue does Intel need to call this business a success? And when do you get that? Is it '27? Is it '28? Is it later?
Lip-Bu,關於第一個問題,我很好奇,你認為英特爾什麼時候才能開始因其外部代工工作而獲得認可?因為你提到你可能會在今年下半年聽到一些獎項的消息。我猜你們會在今年晚些時候或明年開始著手建立這方面的能力,對吧?那麼,你究竟什麼時候才能真正從這些客戶身上獲得可觀的收入呢?我想你也提到過,建立這項業務需要逐步投入資源。那麼,英特爾需要達到怎樣的外部代工收入才能稱得上這項業務的成功呢?那什麼時候才能得到呢?是 27 年嗎?是 28 年嗎?晚點嗎?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Good question. I think first of all, I think the engagement with our potential external customer on the 14A are very active right now, a couple of key customers working with us. We expect them to really go through the milestone basis on 0.5 PDK and then starting to look at the test chip and look at how is our yield performance. And it's going to be a process to work with them.
是的。問得好。首先,我認為目前我們與潛在外部客戶在 14A 方面的互動非常活躍,有幾位重要客戶正在與我們合作。我們希望他們能夠真正按照 0.5 PDK 的里程碑進行測試,然後開始研究測試晶片,看看我們的良率表現如何。與他們合作將是一個過程。
And then I think the second half of the year, then they're starting to satisfy, then they're going to asking us, okay, now this is the particular product we're going to run with your foundry and the production. And then the indication to us and that's the time my discipline is until they have a commitment to the volume, then I starting to really build and the foundry expansion so that we can meet their requirement.
然後我認為到了下半年,他們開始感到滿意,然後他們會問我們,好的,現在我們要和你們的鑄造廠一起生產這個特定的產品。然後,他們會向我們表明,我的職責是,直到他們對產量做出承諾,然後我才會真正開始建造和擴大鑄造廠,以便我們可以滿足他們的需求。
And then the other part parallelly, they also give us a list of IP. If it's a mobile related, you have to be low power IP that we need to have. If it is data center related, it clearly will be the performance, the connectivity, all these things that we need to really get it ready so that we can serve the as a service as a customer to meet their requirement. So it's parallelly on the IP readiness and also our yield readiness that is think satisfied.
另一方面,他們也同時向我們提供了一份 IP 位址清單。如果是行動相關的,那我們需要的是低功耗IP。如果與資料中心有關,顯然需要確保效能、連接性等各方面都準備就緒,以便我們能夠為客戶提供服務,滿足他們的需求。所以,就智慧財產權準備情況和產量準備情況而言,我們認為都是令人滿意的。
Okay. Now this product. This is a volume we're going to run with you. and that's how you're starting to build. So -- in terms of 14A, realistically in terms of, I call it, the risk production in the later part of 2027 and real production, volume production in 2028. That is similar to the same time frame as a leading foundry.
好的。現在介紹這款產品。這是我們接下來要和你一起完成的捲冊。這就是你開始累積經驗的方式。所以——就 14A 而言,實際上,我稱之為 2027 年下半年的風險產量和 2028 年的實際產量、批量產量。這與一家領先的鑄造廠的時間框架相似。
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And I'd just say, we probably will be able to give you a lot more color around all of these things at the Analyst Day that Lip-Bu mentioned will have in the back half of the year.
我只想說,我們或許能夠在 Lip-Bu 提到的下半年分析師日上,向大家詳細介紹所有這些事情。
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Vivek do you have a follow-up question?
維韋克,你還有後續問題嗎?
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
For my follow-up, I'm curious, what do you think is the server CPU TAM in 2026? How much of that is x86? How much of that is ARM? I mean if you are supply constrained, is the entire industry supply constrained? Do you think that whatever you can't supply all that market share is going to go to your x86 competitor and to everyone in the AI community that is building ARM-based servers. So like when do you think your supply -- how much does the market grow? And when do you think your server CPU supply constraints come off?
我的後續問題是,您認為 2026 年伺服器 CPU 的總市場規模 (TAM) 是多少?其中有多少是x86架構的?其中有多少是ARM架構?我的意思是,如果供應受限,那麼整個產業都會受到供應受限的影響嗎?你認為你無法提供的所有市場份額都會落入你的 x86 競爭對手以及所有在 AI 社群中建立基於 ARM 的伺服器的公司手中嗎?那麼,你認為你的供應量──市場成長到什麼程度?你認為伺服器 CPU 的供應限制何時解除?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Okay. Maybe I'll start and you -- so I think this demand, what we're seeing is largely in x86 phenomenon because it's an upgrade cycle in a lot of ways around older networks that have to talk in some way to the AI systems and the performance is not where it needs to be. So I really view this as x86. Of course, we do have another competitor in the space, and we'll be jockeying for position from a market share perspective.
好的。也許我會先開始,然後你——所以我認為這種需求,我們現在看到的現象,很大程度上是 x86 現象,因為在很多方面,這是一個圍繞舊網絡的升級週期,這些舊網絡必須以某種方式與 AI 系統通信,但性能還沒有達到應有的水平。所以我真的把它看作是x86架構。當然,我們在這個領域還有另一個競爭對手,我們將從市佔率的角度來爭取地位。
I think we will make great strides on the supply as we progress through the year. So I wouldn't envision that to be the fundamental driver ultimately a market share. And it's really about products and Lip-Bu talked about getting to a 16-channel Diamond Rapids out, accelerating the introduction of Coral Rapids. Those will be the things that are most important for us as we look at market share dynamics in the coming years.
我認為隨著時間的推移,我們在供應方面會取得巨大進步。因此,我認為市場佔有率最終不會是根本驅動因素。這其實與產品有關,Lip-Bu 談到要推出 16 頻道的 Diamond Rapids,加速 Coral Rapids 的推出。在未來幾年展望市場佔有率動態時,這些將是我們最關注的因素。
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I think from my side, I think clearly, hyperscale and the high-end OEM, ODM is critical for us on the server side. And then we're basically working with them. Their first choice is the CPU from Intel. And that is a very clear message from them. They will try to get as much as we can give them. And then I think that's the key home driver.
我認為就我而言,很明顯,超大規模和高階 OEM、ODM 對我們伺服器端來說至關重要。然後我們基本上就是和他們一起工作。他們的首選是英特爾的CPU。這是他們傳遞的一個非常明確的訊息。他們會盡力獲取我們所能給予他們的一切。我認為這就是關鍵的主場優勢。
Operator
Operator
C.J. Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.
C.J. Muse,坎托·菲茨傑拉德。
C.J. Muse - Analyst
C.J. Muse - Analyst
I guess a follow on Stacy's question around supply. Considering your bullish commentary and AI-led demand and how you're supply-constrained and your peers, TSMC and Samsung Taylor are aggressively slotting for equipment delivery. Do you worry that if you wait for late 2026 to place orders that the lead times then might be longer than you thought? And as part of that, why wouldn't you look to be more aggressive today?
我想這是對史泰西關於供應問題的後續提問。考慮到你樂觀的評論和人工智慧驅動的需求,以及你和你的同行台積電和三星泰勒所面臨的供應限制,他們正在積極安排設備交付。您是否擔心,如果等到 2026 年底再下單,交貨週期可能會比您預想的要長?因此,你今天為什麼不採取更積極主動的策略呢?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, maybe I don't know if this is the answer to your question, but I mean we are aggressively getting tools on Intel 710, Intel 3 18A, that is happening. And we will be increasing our wafer starts as aggressively as possible on those nodes. What we're holding back on is 14A because14A is really linked to foundry customers, and it does not make sense to build out significant capacity there until we know that we have the customers that will accept that demand.
是的,也許我不知道這是否是你的問題的答案,但我的意思是,我們正在積極地為 Intel 710 和 Intel 3 18A 獲取工具,這是正在發生的事情。我們將盡可能積極地增加這些節點上的晶圓開片量。我們現在暫緩推進 14A 晶片,是因為 14A 晶片與代工廠客戶密切相關,在確定有客戶願意接受這種需求之前,貿然擴大產能是沒有意義的。
And so that's just the discipline we're going to have. I'd say the other thing with regard to a lot of this around supply is, Lip-Bu's first focus and our short-term focus is we think we gain a lot of supply just by doing things better with our existing tools and footprint, getting yields improved, getting cycle times improved and we're aggressively working on that. And we think there's lots of opportunity to improve our supply just on those 2 things that don't require CapEx, quite honestly. And that's something that's probably more unique to us right now than to other foundries.
這就是我們要遵守的紀律。關於供應方面,我想說的另一點是,Lip-Bu 的首要重點和短期重點是,我們認為只要利用我們現有的工具和佈局做得更好,提高良率,縮短週期時間,就能獲得大量的供應,我們正在積極努力實現這一點。坦白說,我們認為僅僅在這兩方面(無需資本支出)就有很多機會來改善我們的供應。而這一點,目前可能只有我們公司有,其他代工廠沒有。
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
C.J., do you have a follow-up question?
C.J.,你還有後續問題嗎?
C.J. Muse - Analyst
C.J. Muse - Analyst
Yeah, John. Just to hit on the press release, you talked about demonstrating technical feasibility on High NA for future HVM. And so just curious, is that something you're still contemplating for 14A? Or is that more of a 10A adoption?
是的,約翰。順便提一下新聞稿,你們談到了在高NA上展示未來HVM的技術可行性。所以我很好奇,你還在考慮把這個加到 14A 裡嗎?或者這更像是 10A 條款下的採用?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
It will be part of our 14A process. Of course, there will be different variants of 14A, but High NA is targeted at 14A.
這將成為我們 14A 流程的一部分。當然,14A 會有不同的變體,但高 NA 的目標是 14A。
Operator
Operator
Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.
哈蘭‧蘇爾,摩根大通。
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Lip-Bu, as you look forward to 14A, you talked about engineering engagements with customers. And typically, the largest fabless semiconductor companies in the world want to run their own test chips to assess the new foundry node, and they typically wait for PDK 0.4 or 0.5 before they start their test chip designs, it looks like they can get started now on test chip design with the release of your PDK 0.5.
Lip-Bu,在展望 14A 時,你談到了與客戶的工程合作。通常情況下,全球最大的無晶圓廠半導體公司都希望運行自己的測試晶片來評估新的晶圓製造節點,他們通常會等到 PDK 0.4 或 0.5 發布後才開始進行測試晶片設計。隨著你們 PDK 0.5 的發布,他們現在似乎可以開始進行測試晶片設計了。
So I guess the question is, have customers commence test chip designs or are they maybe even further along than that and customers are already running their own 14A test chips now? I mean, in order for them to make decisions on 14A in the second half, they need to be running their test chips fairly soon. So if you give us an update there?
所以我想問的是,客戶是否已經開始測試晶片設計,或者他們是否已經走得更遠,客戶現在已經在運行他們自己的 14A 測試晶片了?我的意思是,為了讓他們在下半年對 14A 做出決定,他們需要盡快運行測試晶片。如果你能給我們更新一下情況就好了?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, good question. So I think you're absolutely correct. A couple of customer we are already engaging about the PDK 0.5 and they are looking at the test chip. And also more important is a specific product they're going to run to our fab foundry. And that one, we are working with them. And then, of course, they want to know the capacity, the pricing, those are all in the discussion right now. So that's why I mentioned the second half of this year, they're starting to satisfy, then they can starting to say, okay, now we need this volume and we need particular fab from yours to do it.
嗯,問得好。所以我覺得你的說法完全正確。我們已經與幾位客戶就 PDK 0.5 進行了溝通,他們正在查看測試晶片。更重要的是,他們要向我們的晶圓代工廠生產的具體產品是什麼。我們正在與他們合作。當然,他們也想知道產能、定價,這些目前都在討論之中。所以這就是為什麼我提到今年下半年,他們開始感到滿意,然後他們就可以開始說,好的,現在我們需要這個產量,我們需要你們的特定工廠來完成它。
And then also the other part is, do we have all the right IP to serve them? And so those are the things that we are parallelly proces with their supply chain and also their design teams to work with them. So this is a very complex steps and that we are very familiar, we are working in the right way.
另一方面,我們是否擁有為他們提供服務所需的所有正確 IP 位址?因此,我們正在與他們的供應鏈和設計團隊並行處理這些事項,以便與他們合作。所以這是一個非常複雜的步驟,而我們對此非常熟悉,我們正在以正確的方式工作。
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Harlan, do you have a follow-up question, please?
哈蘭,你還有後續問題嗎?
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Yeah. On your server portfolio, I apologize if I missed this earlier, but Clearwater Forest, right, your E-core sort of cloud workload optimized server platform that was targeted to be the first server platform to use your 18A manufacturing and ramp first half of this year. But Lip-Bu talked about server road map changes to focus on more performance-focused products. So is the team still supporting Clearwater Forest? Or just focusing now on Diamond Rapids? And has the team taped out or taped in your next-gen Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids products and any preliminary views on ramp timing of Diamond Rapids?
是的。關於您的伺服器產品組合,如果我之前錯過了,我深表歉意,但是 Clearwater Forest,對吧,您的 E-core 型雲端工作負載優化伺服器平台,目標是成為第一個使用您的 18A 製造工藝的伺服器平台,並在今年上半年實現量產。但 Lip-Bu 談到了伺服器路線圖的改變,以專注於更注重效能的產品。那麼,這支隊伍還在支持清水森林隊嗎?還是現在只專注於鑽石急流?團隊是否已經完成了下一代 Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids 產品的測試或開發?對於 Diamond Rapids 的量產時間是否有任何初步看法?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So answer to your question is, yes, we continue to do this and support that. And what I mentioned about focus on the 16-channel of Diamond Rapid is kind of focus on the high end of the Diamond Rapids so that we can really laser focus and really providing a differentiating competitive products. And then the other part is, as I mentioned in the past, this multi-threading is very important in terms of driving the performance. And the one that we can really come out with and it takes time to have that and we're going to have that in the Coral Rapid.
是的。所以,對於你的問題,答案是肯定的,我們會繼續這樣做並支持這樣做。我之前提到的專注於16頻道Diamond Rapid,是指專注於Diamond Rapid的高階產品,這樣我們才能真正做到精準聚焦,提供真正具有差異化競爭力的產品。另一方面,正如我之前提到的,多執行緒對於提升效能非常重要。而我們真正能夠拿出來的那一款,需要時間才能做到,我們將在珊瑚急流中看到它。
Now the question mark is how can -- how much can we accelerate that they put in earlier customer is really excited about that, Lip-Bu, can you pull it up earlier. That's why I work with Kevork and his team see how -- what are the way we can really drive that acceleration to bring the market -- to bring the customer earlier.
現在的問題是,我們能以多快的速度加快他們之前投入的資金?客戶對此感到非常興奮,Lip-Bu,你能更早把它推出來嗎?這就是為什麼我與凱沃爾克和他的團隊合作,看看我們如何真正推動市場加速發展,讓客戶更早獲得產品。
Operator
Operator
Aaron Rakers, Wells Fargo.
Aaron Rakers,富國銀行。
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
I have two, if I can fit them in. But on the memory side and what we're seeing in the market, I'm curious of how you guys are seeing customers react to memory? Is there a potential demand disruption in the PC market? Just any kind of curiosity on what you're seeing in that? And how impactful is memory pricing to the gross margin, given obviously, I think, stronger for longer Lunar Lake demand.
我有兩個,如果能裝下的話。但就記憶體方面以及我們在市場上看到的情況而言,我很好奇你們觀察到的客戶對記憶體的反應如何?個人電腦市場是否有潛在的需求中斷?只是對你看到的景象感到好奇而已?考慮到 Lunar Lake 長期需求明顯更強,記憶體定價對毛利率的影響有多大?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, good question. So I think industry facing a very big challenge is the memory constraint and also the pricing. So I think we also listen to our customers, some of the bigger players and in the OEM and the bigger player in the hyperscale, they have more access into the memory locations. So we kind of hear from them.
嗯,問得好。所以我認為,業界面臨的巨大挑戰是記憶體限制和定價問題。所以我覺得我們也要聽取客戶的意見,一些規模較大的廠商,以及超大規模資料中心的大型廠商,他們對記憶體位置有更大的存取權。所以我們多少能聽到他們的消息。
And then secondly, I think some of the smaller ones, they are really challenging to scramble to get the memory. So I think that will be very important for us, Dave and I, how to allocate and also our sales great in how to allocate to the right customer. We don't want to have a CPU, we sent to them, but they are missing the memory, they cannot complete the products. So we try to do it correctly and then -- that is very important to have that intelligence and then also feedback from the customer to work with us and so that we can fulfill their requirement. Dave?
其次,我認為有些較小的記憶體很難取得。所以我認為這對我們,戴夫和我來說非常重要,如何分配資源,以及我們的銷售人員如何將資源分配給合適的客戶,都至關重要。我們不需要CPU,我們已經把CPU寄給他們了,但是他們缺少內存,所以無法完成產品。所以我們努力把事情做好,然後──擁有這種洞察力非常重要,同時也要從客戶那裡獲得回饋,以便與我們合作,從而滿足他們的需求。戴夫?
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
David Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. I think on the Lunar Lake side, I think we've got what we need based on the current forecast, of course, that could always tick up, and then we would need more memory which would kind of impact gross margins. But we were relatively aggressive in terms of getting the memory early. So I feel like we're in a relatively good place there. Now that said, those margins are low because the memory is packaged. So that is an impact to our gross margins as well. But I think we're largely in the place we thought we would be a quarter or 2 ago.
是的。我認為就 Lunar Lake 而言,根據目前的預測,我們已經擁有了所需的一切,當然,預測結果隨時可能上升,屆時我們將需要更多內存,這將對毛利率產生一定影響。但我們在早期取得記憶體方面相對比較積極主動。所以我覺得我們目前的狀況還不錯。話雖如此,由於記憶體是封裝的,所以利潤率很低。因此,這也對我們的毛利率產生了影響。但我認為,我們目前所處的位置,基本上與我們一兩個季度前預想的位置一致。
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
John Pitzer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Aaron, do you have a quick follow-up?
亞倫,你還有什麼後續問題嗎?
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
I do, and I'll be really quick. I'm curious on the custom ASIC side, you talked about hitting $1 billion of run rate business. How do we think about the progression of that? And how broad is the customer base within that opportunity set?
好的,我會很快的。我對定制ASIC晶片方面很感興趣,您提到要實現10億美元的年營業額。我們如何看待這過程的發展?該潛在市場範圍內的客戶群有多廣?
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Lip-Bu Tan - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good question. I think Dave mentioned earlier, is a $100 billion TAM market opportunity. And we are delighted. We are already in the run rate of $1 billion. It's a robust demand and customers really excited about what we have in terms of the CPU Xeon and also the AI-related momentum. So they're more building a purpose build, silicon for AI and network and cloud.
問得好。我認為戴夫之前提到過,這是一個價值 1000 億美元的潛在市場機會。我們非常高興。我們目前的年收入已經達到10億美元。市場需求強勁,客戶對我們推出的至強CPU以及人工智慧相關的發展勢頭感到非常興奮。所以他們更傾向於打造專用於人工智慧、網路和雲端運算的晶片。
And that part, I think we continue to work on that. And also more important for them is also the advanced packaging, make that more compelling. And that's the advantage of Intel that we can do both to provide customer delight. And so that, I think, is a good opportunity for us. So with that, thank you again for joining us today.
至於那部分,我認為我們會繼續努力。對他們來說,更重要的是先進的包裝,這會讓產品更具吸引力。這就是英特爾的優勢所在,我們可以同時做到這兩點,讓客戶滿意。所以我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的機會。那麼,再次感謝各位今天收看我們的節目。
As we move forward, I remain focused on disciplined execution and deep collaboration with our customers to seize the meaningful opportunity created by AI era. While we have a lot more to do, we are confident in the foundation that we built and the progress underway. We're looking forward to provide you another update in April.
展望未來,我將繼續專注於嚴謹的執行和與客戶的深度合作,以抓住人工智慧時代帶來的重大機會。雖然我們還有很多工作要做,但我們對我們已經打下的基礎和正在進行的進展充滿信心。我們期待在四月為您提供另一次更新。
Operator
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.
感謝各位女士、先生參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。再會。