ARM Holdings PLC (ARM) 2027 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ARM first-quarter fiscal year 2027 webcast and conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

各位好，感謝您耐心等候。歡迎參加 ARM 2027 會計年度第一季網路直播與電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Ian Thornton, Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在我想把會議交給今天的第一位講者：投資人關係副總裁 Ian Thornton。

Thank you, and welcome to our first quarter fiscal '27 earnings call. On the call are Rene Haas, Arm's Chief Executive Officer; and Jason Child, Arm's Chief Financial Officer. Today's call contains forward-looking information about the company and its financial results. While these statements represent our best current judgment, our business is subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Important risk factors that may affect our business and future financial results are described in our annual report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC.

謝謝，歡迎各位參加我們 2027 會計年度第一季財報電話會議。出席本次電話會議的有 Arm 執行長 Rene Haas，以及 Arm 財務長 Jason Child。今天的電話會議包含有關公司及其財務結果的前瞻性資訊。雖然這些陳述代表我們目前最佳判斷，但我們的業務面臨許多風險與不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前述陳述存在重大差異。可能影響我們業務及未來財務結果的重要風險因素，已載於我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的 Form 20-F 年度報告中。

Arm assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. We will also refer to non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our shareholder letter as can a discussion of certain projected non-GAAP financial measures that we are not able to reconcile without unreasonable efforts and supplemental financial information. Our earnings materials are available at investors.arm.com.

Arm 不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。我們也將提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標之調節表，可在我們的股東信中找到；其中亦包含對某些預估的非 GAAP 財務衡量指標之說明，對於這些指標，我們若要在不付出不合理努力的情況下進行調節並不可行，以及補充財務資訊。我們的財報資料可於 investors.arm.com 取得。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Rene.

接下來，我把電話交給 Rene。

Thank you, Ian, and welcome, everyone. Arm delivered a record first quarter and a strong start to fiscal 2027. Our results reflect growing demand for the Arm compute platform as AI expands across cloud infrastructure, edge devices and the physical world. Revenue reached $1.29 billion, up 22% year-over-year, driven by record first quarter licensing and royalty revenue. Royalty revenue grew 22% to $715 million.

謝謝你，Ian，歡迎各位。Arm 交出創紀錄的第一季成績，為 2027 會計年度帶來強勁開局。我們的業績反映出，隨著 AI 擴展至雲端基礎設施、邊緣裝置與實體世界，市場對 Arm 運算平台的需求持續成長。營收達 12.9 億美元，年增 22%，主要由第一季創新高的授權與權利金收入所帶動。權利金收入成長 22% 至 7.15 億美元。

Licensing revenue grew 23% to $574 million and non-GAAP EPS increased 29% to $0.45, above the high end of our guidance. AI is changing where and how compute happens. We're seeing that in the data center, where the transition to Arm continues to accelerate. And we're seeing it beyond the data center as AI expands into PCs, smartphones and physical AI applications. Across each of these markets, customers are increasingly standardizing on the Arm compute platform.

授權收入成長 23% 至 5.74 億美元，非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）成長 29% 至 0.45 美元，高於我們財測區間的上緣。AI 正在改變運算發生的地點與方式。我們在資料中心看到這一點，向 Arm 的轉移持續加速。而在資料中心之外，隨著 AI 擴展至 PC、智慧型手機與實體 AI 應用，我們也同樣看見這個趨勢。在上述各個市場中，客戶正日益以 Arm 運算平台作為標準。

These trends are the driving demand for the Arm AGI CPU. We introduced the Arm AGI CPU in March to give customers another way to deploy the Arm compute platform. Since that time, we've made significant progress. Initial product has now been delivered to multiple customers, and we have secured the manufacturing capacity needed to support the $1 billion opportunity we outlined last quarter across fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028.

這些趨勢正推動對 Arm AGI CPU 的需求。我們於 3 月推出 Arm AGI CPU，為客戶提供另一種部署 Arm 運算平台的方式。自那時起，我們已取得顯著進展。初始產品現已交付給多家客戶，且我們已確保所需的製造產能，以支援我們在上一季所概述、橫跨 2027 與 2028 會計年度的 10 億美元機會。

Demand now exceeds $2 billion as we continue to add new customers, including multiple customers in the US and China, while the overall value of our pipeline has continued to strengthen. We're also working closely with our manufacturing and supply chain partners to expand capacity. Our confidence in achieving upside to our $1 billion opportunity for the Arm AGI CPU business has increased in the past 90 days. This momentum is part of a much broader shift already taking place across our Neoverse business. Data center royalties more than doubled year-over-year once again as adoption of Arm Neoverse continues to expand.

隨著我們持續新增客戶（包括美國與中國的多家客戶），需求現已超過 20 億美元，同時我們整體商機管線的價值也持續增強。我們也正與製造與供應鏈夥伴密切合作，以擴充產能。在過去 90 天內，我們對於 Arm AGI CPU 業務在 10 億美元機會之上實現上行空間的信心有所提升。這股動能是我們 Neoverse 業務更廣泛轉變的一部分，而這項轉變已在進行中。隨著 Arm Neoverse 的採用持續擴大，資料中心權利金再次年增逾一倍。

The pace at which Arm is becoming the CPU foundation for AI infrastructure is accelerating. Arm Neoverse shipments have now surpassed 1.5 billion cores with most recent 500 million shipping in just the last 9 months, where the first 1 billion took 6 years. The world's leading AI infrastructure providers continue to validate that trend. NVIDIA has now brought Vera into production. Built on Arm, Vera delivers up to 50% higher CPU performance and 2x greater energy efficiency than comparable x86 systems and will serve as the CPU foundation for NVIDIA's next-generation AI infrastructure.

Arm 正加速成為 AI 基礎設施的 CPU 基石。Arm Neoverse 出貨量現已超過 15 億個核心；其中最近的 5 億個核心僅在過去 9 個月內出貨，而最初的 10 億個核心則花了 6 年。全球領先的 AI 基礎設施供應商持續驗證這一趨勢。NVIDIA 現已將 Vera 導入量產。Vera 建構於 Arm 之上，相較於同級 x86 系統，可提供最高 50% 的 CPU 效能提升與 2 倍的能源效率，並將作為 NVIDIA 下一代 AI 基礎設施的 CPU 基礎。

Google has stated that its Arm-based Axion CPU is a core component of its AI infrastructure strategy and the host CPU for its latest TPU AI systems. AWS announced plans to deploy tens of millions of Graviton5 cores to power agentic AI workloads. Microsoft expanded Azure Cobalt 200 virtual machines built on Arm Neoverse CSS. Additionally, Qualcomm has also announced plans to enter the AI data center CPU market with Arm-based Dragonfly C1000. Each of these companies is approaching AI infrastructure differently, but they're all moving in the same direction.

Google 表示，其基於 Arm 的 Axion CPU 是其 AI 基礎設施策略的核心組成，並作為其最新 TPU AI 系統的主機 CPU。AWS 宣布計畫部署數千萬個 Graviton5 核心，以支援代理式（agentic）AI 工作負載。Microsoft 擴大了基於 Arm Neoverse CSS 的 Azure Cobalt 200 虛擬機。此外，Qualcomm 也宣布計畫以基於 Arm 的 Dragonfly C1000 進入 AI 資料中心 CPU 市場。這些公司在 AI 基礎設施上的切入方式各不相同，但它們都朝著同一個方向前進。

Arm-based CPUs are becoming central to next-generation AI infrastructure. IDC reported that spending on Arm-based accelerated server platforms has nearly doubled in the past two quarters and has now surpassed x86 platforms. We're witnessing both the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure and Arm's growing role within it.

基於 Arm 的 CPU 正成為下一代 AI 基礎設施的核心。IDC 報告指出，過去兩個季度對基於 Arm 的加速伺服器平台的支出幾乎翻倍，且現已超越 x86 平台。我們正見證 AI 基礎設施的快速擴張，以及 Arm 在其中日益提升的角色。

Our opportunity extends well beyond the data center. As AI moves into production, customers are increasingly focused on the economics of deploying AI at scale. Whether AI runs across the cloud, the edge or ultimately the physical world, efficient compute is becoming just as important as model capability. Bringing AI closer to where data is created improves performance, reduces latency, enhances privacy and lowers infrastructure costs. This is where Arm has always differentiated itself. The result is a new generation of computing devices spanning into two distinct categories: efficient AI PCs designed for mobility and more powerful agentic systems capable of running sophisticated models locally. NVIDIA introduced RTX Spark, the first agentic PC built on Arm's compute subsystems, enabling sophisticated AI agents and larger AI models, which can run locally.

我們的機會遠不止於資料中心。隨著 AI 進入量產階段，客戶愈發關注以規模化方式部署 AI 的經濟性。無論 AI 運行於雲端、邊緣，或最終延伸至實體世界，高效率運算正變得與模型能力同等重要。將 AI 更靠近資料產生處可提升效能、降低延遲、強化隱私並降低基礎設施成本。這正是 Arm 一直以來的差異化所在。其結果是新一代運算裝置，涵蓋兩個明確類別：為行動性而設計的高效率 AI PC，以及能在本地運行複雜模型、效能更強的代理式系統。NVIDIA 推出 RTX Spark，這是首款建構於 Arm 運算子系統之上的代理式 PC，可支援精密的 AI 代理與更大型的 AI 模型在本地運行。

For on-the-go AI PCs, those same OEMs continue expanding the Windows on Arm ecosystem with new Snapdragon-powered AI PCs, while Google's continued investment in AI-enabled Chromebooks is broadening access to on-device AI. As AI drives the transition to next generation of personal computing, Arm's opportunity continues to grow across an expanding range of AI-enabled devices.

針對行動中的 AI PC，同樣的 OEM 仍持續以搭載 Snapdragon 的新款 AI PC 擴展 Windows on Arm 生態系；同時，Google 持續投資具 AI 功能的 Chromebook，也正在擴大裝置端 AI 的可及性。隨著 AI 推動個人運算邁向下一代轉型，Arm 在日益擴大的 AI 賦能裝置版圖中的機會持續成長。

The same economics extend into the physical world. Vehicles, robots, industrial systems and autonomous machines increasingly rely on efficient, secure and real-time Arm-based compute to sense, reason, and act autonomously. NVIDIA recently expanded its physical AI platform with Cosmos three and the Isaac GROOT, humanoid robotics platform powered by Jetson Thor, which combines an Arm-based CPU with NVIDIA Blackwell GPU.

同樣的經濟性也延伸至實體世界。車輛、機器人、工業系統與自主機器日益依賴高效率、安全且即時的 Arm 架構運算，以進行感知、推理並自主採取行動。NVIDIA 近期以 Cosmos three 與 Isaac GROOT 擴展其實體 AI 平台；Isaac GROOT 為由 Jetson Thor 驅動的人形機器人平台，結合基於 Arm 的 CPU 與 NVIDIA Blackwell GPU。

Arm's software ecosystem continues to expand and now supports more than 22 million developers worldwide. During the quarter, Arm introduced Performix with support from Microsoft, MongoDB, Redis and SAP, helping developers and AI agents analyze and optimize workloads running on Arm-based infrastructure. We also expanded our AI developer tools, including the Arm MCP server, which has surpassed 10,000 Docker downloads and integrates Arm's expertise into leading AI developer environments.

Arm 的軟體生態系持續擴張，目前已支援全球超過 2,200 萬名開發者。本季度，Arm 推出 Performix，並獲得 Microsoft、MongoDB、Redis 與 SAP 的支援，協助開發者與 AI 代理分析並最佳化在基於 Arm 的基礎設施上運行的工作負載。我們也擴展了 AI 開發者工具，包括 Arm MCP 伺服器；其 Docker 下載量已超過 10,000 次，並將 Arm 的專業能力整合至主流 AI 開發者環境中。

From cloud infrastructure to PCs and physical AI, developers can build on the same Arm architecture and software ecosystem. Customers can deploy Arm through IP, compute subsystems or silicon, depending on what best fits your business. But in every case, they're building on the same Arm compute platform, software ecosystem and developer community. As AI becomes part of every cloud, every device and every sector, the industry is increasingly converging on a common compute platform. We believe that convergence will define the next decade of computing. AI is changing where and how compute happens, and Arm is at the center of it.

從雲端基礎設施到個人電腦（PC）與實體 AI，開發者都能在相同的 Arm 架構與軟體生態系上進行開發。客戶可依最符合自身業務需求的方式，透過 IP、運算子系統或矽晶片來部署 Arm。但無論哪種情況，他們都是建立在同一個 Arm 運算平台、軟體生態系與開發者社群之上。隨著 AI 成為每個雲端、每個裝置與每個產業的一部分，整個產業正日益匯聚到一個共同的運算平台。我們相信，這種匯聚將定義未來十年的運算發展。AI 正在改變運算發生的地點與方式，而 Arm 正處於其中的核心。

With that, I'll turn it over to Jason.

接下來，我把時間交給 Jason。

Thank you, Rene. We have started fiscal year '27 with another strong quarter, delivering the highest first quarter revenue in our history. Total revenue grew 22% year-on-year to $1.29 billion. Royalty revenue grew 22% year-on-year to $715 million, also our highest ever figure for Q1. Once again, the largest driver of royalty growth was cloud AI. Data center royalty revenue continues to more than double year-on-year, reflecting our sustained momentum across the market. This is being driven by the continued ramp of Arm-based server chips at all the major hyperscalers alongside increasing deployments of data center networking chips, particularly DPUs and SmartNICs where Arm technology is deployed in nearly all leading products.

謝謝你，Rene。我們以又一個強勁的季度開啟 2027 會計年度，創下公司史上最高的第一季營收。總營收年增 22%，達 12.9 億美元。權利金營收年增 22%，達 7.15 億美元，同樣是我們 Q1 的歷史新高。再一次，推動權利金成長的最大動能來自雲端 AI。資料中心權利金營收持續較去年同期成長超過一倍，反映我們在市場上的持續動能。這主要由各大超大規模雲端業者（hyperscalers）持續擴大量產採用 Arm 架構伺服器晶片所帶動，同時資料中心網路晶片的部署也在增加，尤其是 DPU 與 SmartNIC；在這些領域，幾乎所有領先產品都採用了 Arm 技術。

Edge AI royalty revenue continued to grow despite a soft end market in smartphones. We continue to benefit from higher royalty rates as Armv9 and compute subsystems continue to increase their penetration in smartphones, tablets and other consumer electronic devices. These drivers more than offset the decline in smartphone sales due to higher memory prices. Physical AI also made a strong contribution to royalty growth, supported by the continued secular expansion of ADAS and autonomous systems built on Arm technology.

儘管智慧型手機終端市場疲弱，邊緣 AI 的權利金營收仍持續成長。隨著 Armv9 與運算子系統在智慧型手機、平板與其他消費性電子裝置中的滲透率持續提升，我們也持續受惠於較高的權利金費率。這些動能足以抵銷因記憶體價格上漲而導致的智慧型手機銷量下滑。實體 AI 也對權利金成長做出強勁貢獻，受惠於以 Arm 技術為基礎的 ADAS 與自動化系統的長期結構性擴張。

Turning now to licensing. License and other revenue were $574 million, up 23% year-on-year, also a record for Q1. Growth was driven by strong demand for next-generation architectures and deeper strategic engagements with key customers. This quarter, we signed multiple high-value agreements as existing customers renewed long-term licenses.

接著談授權業務。授權及其他營收為 5.74 億美元，年增 23%，同樣創下 Q1 紀錄。成長主要來自對下一代架構的強勁需求，以及與關鍵客戶更深層的策略合作。本季，我們簽署了多項高價值協議，既有客戶也續簽了長期授權。

Some of the world's largest hyperscalers, automotive and robotics companies and handset OEMs all secure access to Arm's future road map for their next generation of products. Of the $574 million of license revenue, our agreement with SoftBank for technology licensing and design services contributed $193 million. We expect the quarterly run rate for the rest of the year to be around $200 million. As always, licensing revenue varies quarter-to-quarter due to timing and size of high-value deals. So we continue to focus on annualized contract value, or ACV, as a key indicator of the underlying licensing trend.

全球一些最大的超大規模雲端業者、汽車與機器人公司，以及手機 OEM，都已確保能取得 Arm 未來產品藍圖的使用權，以支援其下一代產品。在 5.74 億美元的授權營收中，我們與 SoftBank 就技術授權與設計服務的協議貢獻了 1.93 億美元。我們預期今年其餘季度的單季常態化水準（run rate）約為 2 億美元。一如既往，授權營收會因高價值交易的時點與規模而在各季度間波動。因此，我們持續以年化合約價值（ACV）作為衡量授權基本趨勢的關鍵指標。

ACV grew 13% year-on-year, maintaining strong momentum. This continues to be above our long-term expectation for license revenue growth. As Rene mentioned, customer demand for Arm AGI CPU remains very strong. And this quarter, even more customers have wanted to place orders with us. We've secured the manufacturing capacity needed to support the initial $1 billion opportunity, and we have made progress to secure additional supply as well as optimizing our customer mix and commercial terms.

ACV 年增 13%，維持強勁動能。這仍高於我們對授權營收長期成長的預期。如 Rene 所提，客戶對 Arm AGI CPU 的需求依然非常強勁。而在本季，有更多客戶希望向我們下單。我們已確保支援初始 10 億美元機會所需的製造產能，並且也在取得額外供應方面取得進展，同時優化客戶組合與商業條款。

Our confidence in achieving more than $1 billion has increased in the past 90 days. We will provide an update at our Q3 results, which is when we will have better visibility of Q4 '27 and fiscal '28.

在過去 90 天內，我們對於達成超過 10 億美元的信心有所提升。我們將在 Q3 財報時提供更新，屆時我們對 2027 會計年度 Q4 與 2028 會計年度的能見度將更高。

Turning to operating expenses and profits. Non-GAAP operating expense was $733 million, up 18% year-on-year due to the ongoing R&D investment. This was about $27 million below our guidance due to timing as our spending plan for the year remains largely unchanged. We are expanding our engineering teams to support increasing customer demand while advancing the technologies that will underpin future growth, including next-generation architectures, compute subsystems and the Arm AGI CPU product family.

接著談營業費用與獲利。非 GAAP 營業費用為 7.33 億美元，年增 18%，主要因持續的研發投資。由於時點因素，該數字較我們的指引低約 2,700 萬美元，但我們今年的支出規劃整體仍大致不變。我們正在擴編工程團隊，以支援不斷增加的客戶需求，同時推進將支撐未來成長的技術，包括下一代架構、運算子系統，以及 Arm AGI CPU 產品系列。

Non-GAAP operating income was $531 million, resulting in a non-GAAP operating margin of about 41%, up 200 basis points year-on-year. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.45, driven by both higher revenue and slightly lower OpEx than expected. More importantly, even at these elevated levels of investments, we generated free cash flow of $665 million for the quarter and $1.4 billion over the trailing 12 months, giving us the flexibility to continue to invest long-term growth.

非 GAAP 營業利益為 5.31 億美元，使非 GAAP 營業利益率約為 41%，年增 200 個基點。非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）為 0.45 美元，主要由較高營收以及略低於預期的營業費用所帶動。更重要的是，即使在這樣較高的投資水準下，我們本季仍產生 6.65 億美元自由現金流，過去 12 個月累計為 14 億美元，讓我們具備持續投資長期成長的彈性。

Turning now to guidance. For Q2, we expect revenue of $1.38 billion, plus or minus $50 million. At the midpoint, this represents revenue growth of about 22% year-on-year. We expect license and other revenue to be up about 30% year-on-year and royalty revenue to be up in the low teens year-on-year. We expect our non-GAAP operating expense to be approximately $780 million and our non-GAAP EPS to be $0.47, plus or minus $0.04.

接著談財測指引。針對 Q2，我們預期營收為 13.8 億美元，上下浮動 5,000 萬美元。以中位數計算，這代表營收年增約 22%。我們預期授權及其他營收年增約 30%，權利金營收年增則為低十位數百分比。我們預期非 GAAP 營業費用約為 7.8 億美元，非 GAAP EPS 為 0.47 美元，上下浮動 0.04 美元。

Looking ahead, we continue to see strong customer demand across our business. Combined with the expansion of our technology portfolio and deepening strategic customer relationships, this gives us confidence in our long-term growth outlook.

展望未來，我們持續看到各項業務都有強勁的客戶需求。再加上我們技術產品組合的擴展，以及與策略客戶關係的深化，讓我們對長期成長前景更具信心。

With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for Q&A.

接下來，我把電話交回給主持人，進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

（主持人指示）Wells Fargo 的 Joe Quatrochi。

Maybe just first, can you give us a little bit more detail on just the confidence that's increased in terms of the upside to the $1 billion for AGI revenue? Is there any clarity you can provide just on is it better wafer supply, customers getting access to memory? Any help there?

也許先請教一下，能否再多提供一些細節，說明你們對 AGI 營收超過 10 億美元上行空間的信心為何提升？是否能更清楚說明，是晶圓供應更好、客戶取得記憶體更順利，還是其他因素？能否協助說明一下？

Yes, I'll take that question. I think in general, it's all of the above. If we -- if I look back to the call we had 90 days ago, we had committed to supply of $1 billion. We talked about a pipeline demand of $2 billion, and we were working to secure supply for that delta between $1 billion and $2 billion. 90 days later, the demand picture has even gotten better, as Jason mentioned, north of $2 billion.

好的，這題我來回答。我想整體而言，確實是以上皆是。如果我回顧 90 天前那通電話會議，我們當時已承諾可供應 10 億美元的量。我們也談到需求管線為 20 億美元，並且正努力為 10 億到 20 億之間的差額爭取供應。90 天後，如 Jason 所提，需求情況更好了，已超過 20 億美元。

But our ability to secure that supply for the north of $1 billion, our confidence has increased in the last 90 days. And I would say it's across all of those areas. Making a chip is complex relative to supply chain. You have wafers, you have substrates, you have test capacity, you have memory and all of those areas, our confidence level in being able to secure supply necessary has gotten better. And that's the commentary we're stating at this time.

但就我們取得超過 10 億美元供應的能力而言，過去 90 天我們的信心提升了。我會說這涵蓋了所有這些面向。相較於供應鏈而言，製造晶片是相當複雜的。你需要晶圓、需要基板、需要測試產能、需要記憶體；在所有這些領域，我們對於能夠取得必要供應的信心都變得更高。這就是我們目前所做的說明。

And maybe just as a follow-up to that. I mean, on top of the extra above $1 billion of AGI revenue that you now think you can do, how do we think about the gross margin structure relative to kind of what you were thinking about for the original $1 billion?

也許作為對此的追問。我的意思是，除了你們現在認為可以做到的額外超過 10 億美元的 AGI 營收之外，我們該如何看待毛利率結構，相較於你們原先對最初那 10 億美元的預期？

Yes. No change at this time. We said that -- I think last quarter, we said there was probably going to be somewhere in the high 30% range, maybe low 40%s for the first generation for -- really in Q4 of this year as well as for next year. As I'd say over the next couple of years, we do expect to get to 50%, but that's going to basically just entail us actually bringing more of some of the work that maybe an ASIC has helped us in the past and bring some of that work in-house. So that will probably take a couple of years.

是的。目前沒有變化。我們說過——我想是上個季度——第一代產品的毛利率大概會落在 30% 後段、可能 40% 初段的區間——實際上是在今年第四季以及明年。而我會說，在接下來幾年，我們確實預期能達到 50%，但那基本上需要我們把過去可能由 ASIC 在某些工作上協助的部分，更多地轉為內部自製。所以那大概需要幾年的時間。

Those are our initial expectations. So no real change from last quarter. Obviously, with some of the price increases and things that have happened, we're still kind of working through how to digest those and what needs to be kind of -- what needs to affect our pricing. So those are some of the things that we're going to work through. And as I said in my prepared remarks, we'll provide a much more detailed update for both the revenue and margin profile before we go into Q4. So we'll do that at the end of Q3.

這些是我們最初的預期。所以相較上季沒有實質變化。顯然，隨著一些漲價以及已發生的事情，我們仍在消化這些變化，並評估哪些需要——哪些需要反映到我們的定價上。所以這些都是我們要持續梳理的事項。而如我在事先準備的發言中所說，在進入第四季之前，我們會就營收與毛利率輪廓提供更為詳細的更新。因此我們會在第三季末提供。

Sebastien Naji, William Blair.

Sebastien Naji，William Blair。

My question is on the smartphone market because of the much higher memory handset costs, handset OEMs are absorbing meaningfully more BOM inflation. They're starting to raise prices. I think given that smartphone royalties remain a significant portion of your overall royalty base, can you maybe just talk a little bit about what you're seeing in terms of unit demand and mix and how this impacts your royalty revenue outlook for the fiscal year?

我的問題是關於智慧型手機市場：由於記憶體使手機成本大幅提高，手機 OEM 正在吸收顯著更多的 BOM（物料清單）通膨。他們開始調漲價格。我想，鑑於智慧型手機權利金仍占你們整體權利金基礎的相當大一部分，你們能否談談你們在出貨量需求與產品組合方面看到的情況，以及這對本財年的權利金營收展望有何影響？

Yes. So I'll take the first part of the question, and I'll let Jason talk about some of the details around the numbers. Generally speaking, we have been somewhat isolated from the negative growth of the smartphone market because of the fact that we have moved the vast majority of the customers to V9, in some cases CSS and in some cases, the second version of CSS. And what that's all contributed to has been an increase in royalty growth. So whereas the smartphone market has been going -- projected to be down by some level of double digits, we are projecting double-digit growth in royalties in the smartphone market.

好的。我先回答問題的第一部分，然後讓 Jason 談談數字方面的一些細節。一般而言，我們在某種程度上與智慧型手機市場的負成長隔離，原因是我們已將絕大多數客戶遷移到 V9，在某些情況下是 CSS，在某些情況下則是第二版的 CSS。而這些因素共同帶來的是權利金成長的提升。因此，儘管智慧型手機市場預計會以某個雙位數幅度下滑，我們卻預計智慧型手機市場的權利金將呈現雙位數成長。

Vis-a-vis exactly how that translates to the forward guidance and forecast, I'll let Jason go into some more color.

至於這如何精確地反映到前瞻指引與預測上，我讓 Jason 再補充一些說明。

Yes. I think there's obviously others that are reporting this week and key partners that we'll learn more from. But when we look at our forecast, we mostly try to look at the industry projections across all the entire industry. IDC is, of course, one of the things that we look at. And then, of course, we update for partner mix where we have slightly different royalties based on whether it's CSS or V9 or V8, et cetera.

是的。我想本週也有其他公司以及關鍵合作夥伴在發布資訊，我們也會從中了解更多。但在看我們的預測時，我們主要會參考整個產業的預測。IDC 當然是我們會看的其中一項資料來源。然後我們也會依合作夥伴組合進行更新，因為不同的權利金會因是 CSS、V9 或 V8 等而略有差異。

So when we add all that together, we have seen some incremental slowdown versus what was expected at the beginning of the year. And I think the new piece was initially the expectation was just going to affect the lower end of the market, and now we are seeing all parts of the market, even some upper and mid-tier being affected. And so that's going to be an incremental for us.

把這些加總起來看，相較於年初的預期，我們確實看到一些額外的放緩。而我認為新的部分在於：一開始預期只會影響市場的低端，但現在我們看到市場各個區段都受到影響，甚至包括部分高端與中階。因此，這對我們而言會是額外的影響因素。

And so as a result, I would say, I think going into the year, we probably thought we were -- I think we said last quarter that we're expecting somewhere around 20% year-on-year for the next few years in royalties, including this year. Right now, if I had to guess, that's probably somewhere closer to the high teens right now.

因此，結果是，我會說，我想在年初時，我們大概認為——我記得上季我們說過——未來幾年（包含今年）權利金年增率預期大約在 20% 左右。而現在如果要我猜，可能更接近 10% 後段（high teens）。

But hard to say until we learn more about the next couple of quarters. I'd say right now, the -- we do think royalties will come down a bit in this next quarter, we guided to kind of the low to mid-teens for Q2, and we'll give you a better update next quarter.

但在我們更了解接下來幾個季度之前，很難下定論。我會說目前我們確實認為下一季權利金會稍微下滑；我們對第二季的指引大概在 10% 初段到中段（low to mid-teens），下個季度會給你們更好的更新。

But I think the one thing I would make sure you don't lose sight of is the good news is the overperformance that we've been seeing in cloud AI continues to help offset that. And so while there is weakness on the smartphone side, the overperformance on the cloud AI business continues to accelerate, and that's the piece that gives us confidence in full year and next year's numbers. But again, we'll give you more updates over the next couple of quarters.

但我想有一點要確保你們不要忽略：好消息是，我們在雲端 AI 看到的超預期表現，持續有助於抵消這些影響。因此，雖然智慧型手機端偏弱，但雲端 AI 業務的超預期表現仍在加速，這也是讓我們對全年以及明年的數字有信心的部分。不過同樣地，我們會在接下來幾個季度提供更多更新。

(Operator Instructions) Gary Mobley, StoneX Group.

（接線員指示）Gary Mobley，StoneX Group。

You highlighted maybe a little bit of upside to the demand profile for the next two years, $2 billion plus, I think to paraphrase correctly. But what about the demand pipeline for the out years, fiscal year '29 through '31? And I assume the $15 billion in projected AGI revenue expected for '31 contemplates all the supply chain-related headwinds, that's a supply-served revenue, correct?

你們提到未來兩年的需求輪廓可能有一些上行空間，我想正確轉述的話是超過 20 億美元。但那麼更長期的需求管線呢，也就是 2029 到 2031 財年？另外我假設，對 2031 年預計 150 億美元的 AGI 營收，已經把所有供應鏈相關的逆風都納入考量了；那是供應所能支撐的營收（supply-served revenue），對嗎？

Yes. I'll let Jason comment further in terms of any forward-looking comments he wants to make. But I'll say what has changed since March is that, to your point, clearly, supply is an issue across a number of different factors. The outlook that we gave at that time was based upon our view of the supply picture. On the flip side, we did say at that event that the CPU TAM we thought was about $100 billion in those outer years.

是的。我會讓 Jason 進一步評論他想補充的任何前瞻性看法。但我想說，自三月以來改變的是：如你所說，供應在多個不同因素上顯然是一個問題。我們當時給出的展望是基於我們對供應情勢的看法。另一方面，我們也在那場活動中提到，我們認為在那些較遠期年度，CPU 的 TAM 大約是 1,000 億美元。

And going back, you may recall that prior to that, most folks were talking about a number of around $50 billion to $60 billion. So when we talked about the $100 billion number in March, there was some surprise around it, and there was a lot of back and forth in terms of justifying that number.

回頭看，你可能記得在那之前，多數人談的數字大約是 500 億到 600 億美元。所以當我們在三月談到 1,000 億美元這個數字時，確實引起一些驚訝，也有很多來回討論在於如何證成這個數字。

Since that time, a number of my peers have talked about numbers quite a bit bigger than that, in some cases, up to $200 billion. I think all of that is really being driven by the increase of overall compute capacity, which will be inference-based and all of that inference-based compute is going to largely be running agentic workloads and the agentic workloads are essentially capacity constrained in terms of throughput by the number of CPUs you have.

自那之後，我的一些同業談到的數字更大，在某些情況下甚至高達 2,000 億美元。我認為這一切主要是由整體運算容量的提升所驅動，而這將以推論（inference）為主；而所有這些以推論為主的運算，將在很大程度上運行代理式（agentic）工作負載，而代理式工作負載在吞吐量上基本上會受到你擁有的 CPU 數量所限制，呈現產能受限。

So as inference demand goes up, which it clearly is, and as agentic demand goes up as it clearly is, that means an increase in CPU demand. So we're not changing the numbers at all, but there are a lot of indicators that the numbers that we talked about back in March relative to our view of the TAM may have been conservative.

因此，隨著推論需求上升——而它顯然正在上升——以及代理式需求上升——也同樣顯然正在上升——這意味著 CPU 需求會增加。所以我們完全沒有改變這些數字，但有許多跡象顯示，我們在三月談到的、相對於我們對 TAM 的看法，可能其實是偏保守的。

Jason, do you want to add anything to that?

Jason，你還想補充什麼嗎？

Yes. Yes. I think in general, as Rene said, yes, the TAM at the -- back when we did the event, when we took up to $100 billion, we said $100 billion plus. Obviously, it's gone up to, I think now the most recent estimate is $220 billion sitting on from a variety of sources. So I think our expectation is if you flow through the same kind of market share that we were expecting at $100 billion, could it be much higher if, in fact, the market is at $200 billion plus?

是的。是的。我想整體而言，正如Rene所說，是的，當時我們做那場活動時所談的TAM——當時我們把規模拉到1,000億美元時，我們說的是1,000億美元以上。顯然，它已經上升到——我想最新的估計是約2,200億美元，來自各種來源的存量。所以我認為我們的預期是，如果沿用我們在1,000億美元時所期待的那種類似市占率推演，那麼如果市場實際上是2,000億美元以上，是否可能高出很多？

Well, certainly, it could be. The constraints over the next couple of years, so I'd say the -- for us, FY27 or calendar '26 or FY28, which is, I guess, calendar '27, supply chain is pretty tight. And so we're -- maybe there's upside to get to this $2 billion or $2 billion plus, and we'll provide updates on that over the next couple of quarters. But to go beyond that, the supply chain is going to loosen or at least expand quite a bit as we get into calendar '28 and '29 or for us, FY29 and '30.

嗯，當然，有可能。未來幾年的限制因素——所以我會說，對我們而言，FY27或曆年’26或FY28（我想也就是曆年’27），供應鏈相當吃緊。因此我們——也許有上行空間可以達到這20億美元或20億美元以上，我們會在接下來幾個季度提供更新。但若要再往上，隨著進入曆年’28與’29（對我們而言是FY29與’30），供應鏈將會鬆動，或至少會大幅擴張。

Right now, if you look at wafer capacity and memory capacity, you probably know as well as I do. I think there's estimates that the capacity is going up somewhere between 70% to 100% depending on your assumptions on wafer and some of the different partners that could help there and even more so on the memory side.

現在如果你看晶圓產能和記憶體產能，你大概跟我一樣清楚。我想有些估計認為，產能將上升約70%到100%，取決於你對晶圓的假設，以及一些可能在那方面提供協助的不同合作夥伴；而在記憶體端甚至更為明顯。

So our expectations are -- there certainly is potential to beat the number that we gave out externally. Certainly, internally, we do have higher targets. But until we start to see the supply chain capacity come online, we're mostly focused on just trying to get to the $2 billion number next year, and we'll provide updates, of course, later as we learn more.

所以我們的預期是——確實有潛力超越我們對外給出的數字。當然，在內部我們確實有更高的目標。但在我們開始看到供應鏈產能到位之前，我們主要專注於明年先達到20億美元這個數字；而隨著我們了解更多，之後當然也會提供更新。

Tom O'Malley, Barclays.

Tom O'Malley，巴克萊。

Last week, AMD hosted an Analyst Day and talked about a $220 billion TAM by the end of the decade. And kind of underneath that, the largest contributor was agentic AI that kind of laid out traditional CPU, they laid out head nodes and then agentic applications. So I was curious, when you look at your silicon business longer term, where do you see that fitting in? Is that going to cover all three of those sub buckets in your early wins in your early pipeline? Is there one way that that's leaning or another? Just would like to get the flavor of what you foresee for that silicon business.

上週，AMD舉辦了分析師日，談到在本十年末TAM可達2,200億美元。而在這之下，最大的貢獻者是代理式AI（agentic AI），他們大致拆成傳統CPU、head nodes，然後是代理式應用。所以我很好奇，當你從更長期來看你們的矽晶業務時，你認為它會落在哪裡？在你們早期的勝出案與早期管線中，是否會涵蓋這三個子類別？會偏向其中某一個方向嗎？想請你談談你對那個矽晶業務的展望。

Yes. And I'm sorry, could you repeat those three categories, so I make sure I've got the definitions right.

是的。不好意思，你可以再重複一次那三個類別嗎？我想確認我對定義的理解正確。

Yes, traditional server and then you have head nodes and then you have agentic applications.

可以，傳統伺服器，然後是head nodes，接著是代理式應用。

Got it. Yes, our Arm AGI CPU is going to play in all three. When we talked about the customers that we had signed up back at the Arm Everywhere event, we had folks like Cerebras and OpenAI, which were largely around head node type applications. We also talked about Meta and Cloudflare, which are around agentic applications, but also general-purpose server. We've also just talked about OCI, Oracle.

了解。是的，我們的Arm AGI CPU會在這三個領域都扮演角色。當我們在Arm Everywhere活動上談到已簽約的客戶時，有像Cerebras和OpenAI這些，主要是head node類型的應用。我們也提到Meta和Cloudflare，這些是代理式應用，但同時也涵蓋通用型伺服器。我們也剛提到OCI、Oracle。

So the Arm AGI CPU is a very good fit for all of those, to be quite candid, which is why we are very, very optimistic about the demand. And we did talk about quite a number of customers that day, and we were very specific about inside the cloud, the agentic workloads, it's a pretty broad term because the agents are running through the head node, but they're also running through the general purpose racks that sit inside the data center. So short answer is those three categories that you defined as described earlier, the Arm AGI CPU is a great fit for all three, and we have customers in all three.

所以坦白說，Arm AGI CPU非常適合上述所有類別，這也是為什麼我們對需求非常、非常樂觀。而且那天我們確實談到相當多的客戶；我們也很具體地說明，在雲端內部，代理式工作負載是一個相當廣泛的術語，因為代理會跑在head node上，但也會跑在資料中心內的通用機櫃（racks）上。所以簡短回答是：你先前定義的那三個類別，Arm AGI CPU都非常適配，而且我們在三個類別都有客戶。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America.

Vivek Arya，美國銀行。

I had a near and a longer-term question on your AGI CPU. Near term, I'm very curious what is preventing Arm from securing supply for just one more billion? I mean it's a $50 billion market, right? And there are a number of foundries who can make it. So I'm just curious what is preventing Arm from getting that extra $1 billion a year from now?

我有一個關於你們AGI CPU的短期與長期問題。短期來看，我非常好奇是什麼阻止Arm再多拿到額外10億美元的供應？我的意思是，這是一個500億美元的市場，對吧？而且有多家晶圓代工廠都能製造。所以我只是好奇，究竟是什麼讓Arm無法在一年後多拿到每年額外10億美元？

And then longer term, Rene, when I look at the three players that have Arm-based CPUs in AI, whether it's NVIDIA or Amazon or Google, they each have their proprietary accelerators also, which are often codesigned with the CPU. So don't you think that restricts Arm's opportunity given that you have a CPU-only offering? Or is it your intention to add other things to that CPU-only offering over time?

然後長期來看，Rene，當我看目前在AI領域有Arm架構CPU的三個玩家，不論是NVIDIA、Amazon或Google，他們各自也都有自家的專有加速器，而且通常會與CPU共同設計（codesign）。所以你不覺得這會限制Arm的機會，因為你們提供的是僅CPU的方案嗎？或者你們的意圖是，隨著時間推進，會在這個僅CPU的方案上加入其他東西？

Yes. So I'll take both parts of that question. Jason, you can add on. I'm glad you think $1 billion is not a big number. There are a lot of folks just trying to secure extra supply up to $50 million. It is a very, very, very tight market across everything, whether it's memory, whether it's test equipment, whether it's substrates, whether it's TSMC wafers, it's a very, very, very tight world. I think even my compatriots who are in the CPU business for living and have their own fabs have not been able to supply the demand.

是的。我會回答這個問題的兩個部分。Jason，你也可以補充。我很高興你覺得10億美元不是個大數字。有很多人只是想多爭取到額外5,000萬美元的供應。這是一個非常、非常、非常吃緊的市場，無論是記憶體、測試設備、基板、還是台積電晶圓，整個世界都非常、非常、非常緊。我想即便是那些以CPU為業、而且自有晶圓廠的同業，也都無法滿足需求。

So we are more optimistic than we were 90 days ago, which is great. Demand has increased, but we feel better about the supply side. On the proprietary accelerators, if I understood your question correctly, a couple of proof points that, that is an area that we can certainly play in. First off, at Google, they have used Axion as an interface into their TPUs away from x86. So clearly, there's a space for Arm to exist with custom accelerators.

所以我們比90天前更樂觀，這很好。需求增加了，但我們對供給端也更有信心。至於專有加速器，如果我正確理解你的問題，有幾個佐證顯示這確實是我們可以參與的領域。首先，在Google，他們使用Axion作為介面，將其TPU從x86轉移開來。所以很明顯，Arm在搭配客製加速器方面是有空間存在的。

If your question was around the Arm AGI CPU specifically, there have been some announcements made by NVIDIA about NVLink Fusion. And it's a very interesting platform approach where they're offering a mix and match where you could take a Vera CPU and plug it into a proprietary accelerator or you could take a CPU made by someone else in the Arm family and connect it into a Rubin accelerator.

如果你的問題是針對Arm AGI CPU本身，NVIDIA已經就NVLink Fusion做了一些公告。這是一個非常有趣的平台式作法，他們提供可混搭的選項：你可以拿一顆Vera CPU去接一個專有加速器；或者你也可以拿Arm家族中其他人做的CPU，連接到Rubin加速器。

So we don't have anything to announce around that today, but there are absolutely paths for Arm to connect to custom accelerators, whether it's through a self-hosted design done internally and/or connecting to something through something like NVLink Fusion.

所以我們今天沒有任何相關事項要宣布，但Arm絕對有路徑可以連接到客製加速器——不論是透過內部自研、由我們自行主導的設計，和／或是透過像NVLink Fusion這樣的方式去連接到某些東西。

Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho.

Vijay Rakesh，瑞穗。

Good to hear you guys got some capacity on the agentic AI CPU side. I was wondering, when you look at your agentic AI CPUs, are they mostly in the 128 cores? I know core count is important. So are you looking at -- when do you expect the next 192 or 256 core CPUs coming out? And if any color on the ASIC side as well?

很高興聽到你們在代理式AI CPU這邊拿到了一些產能。我想問的是，當你們看代理式AI CPU時，主要是128核心嗎？我知道核心數很重要。所以你們在看——你們預期下一代192或256核心的CPU會在什麼時候推出？另外也想請你們談談ASIC那邊的情況？

And for Jason, do you expect to like start breaking out the silicon side of revenues, the CPU side because that seems to be becoming bigger and bigger, I guess.

那對於 Jason，你們是否預期會開始把營收拆分揭露，例如矽晶（silicon）端的營收、CPU 端的營收？因為看起來那一塊似乎愈來愈大，我想。

Yes. So thank you for the question. On the product side, nothing to tell you specifically today about the road map and where we're going with that. So the Arm AGI CPU today is 128 core-based design. There are instances in the market using Arm that are better or actually greater number of cores, and that's Graviton5, which is 192 cores.

是的。謝謝你的提問。在產品面上，今天我沒有什麼可以特別跟你說的路線圖或我們將往哪裡走。目前 Arm AGI CPU 是 128 核心的設計。市場上也有使用 Arm、而且核心數更多（或實際上更多核心數）的例子，也就是 Graviton5，為 192 核心。

Certainly, the direction of travel is more cores. And the reason for that is for running agentic workloads, more cores is a better outcome because the software overhead is simpler. You can run virtual machines or virtual jobs on single cores, and they're going to be much more efficient in terms of throughput. So while I don't have anything to talk about today in terms of the road map and the core count, it's not a stretch to think that the next-generation designs are going to have more and more cores because that's clearly the direction of travel. And I'll let Jason comment on the second part of the question.

當然，發展方向就是更多核心。原因在於，執行 agentic 工作負載時，更多核心會帶來更好的結果，因為軟體開銷更簡單。你可以在單一核心上跑虛擬機或虛擬工作，它們在吞吐量效率上會高得多。因此，雖然我今天沒有任何關於路線圖與核心數的內容可以談，但不難想像下一代設計會有愈來愈多核心，因為那顯然就是趨勢方向。至於問題的第二部分，我讓 Jason 來回應。

Yes. On the revenue breakout, well, first, as soon as we start shipping, which will be at the end of this year, that's the first milestone. And then once it becomes at least 10% of revenue, we'll break it out separately as a third line. So separate from license, separate from royalties. Lastly, there will be silicon revenue. So I would expect that based on our forecast, that should be broken out then in FY28.

是的。關於營收拆分，首先，一旦我們開始出貨（會在今年年底），那是第一個里程碑。接著，當它至少達到營收的 10% 時，我們就會把它作為第三條線單獨揭露。也就是獨立於授權（license）、獨立於權利金（royalties）。最後，會有矽晶營收（silicon revenue）。因此我預期依照我們的預測，應該會在 FY28 時拆分揭露。

Charles Shi, Needham & Company.

Charles Shi，Needham & Company。

Jason, I think, if I hear you correctly, you are talking about maybe royalty revenue growth this year instead of 20%, probably going to be high teens because of all the things happening in the smartphone incremental weakness, et cetera. Anything we should be looking at, at the moment, let's say, on the licensing side that can show up with a little bit of upside to offset the incremental weakness on the royalty side? And maybe on that topic, what's the early view on maybe FY29, which is largely CY28? And do you think a 20% royalty is still a good number? And I want to get some thoughts there.

Jason，我想如果我理解正確，你是在說今年權利金營收成長可能不是 20%，而是因為智慧型手機的額外疲弱等各種因素，可能會落在高十幾%的成長。那目前在授權端，有沒有什麼我們應該留意、可能帶來一些上行以抵消權利金端額外疲弱的因素？另外同一個主題，對 FY29（大致對應 CY28）的初步看法是什麼？你覺得 20% 的權利金成長仍然是個合理的數字嗎？我想聽聽你對此的看法。

Yes. In terms of guidance for Q2, we did lower, I think, maybe what our expectations were a couple of quarters ago. We didn't guide to it, but I think our expectations where they were going to be a little higher. We're now guiding to 13% royalty growth in Q2. We also increased our license growth. Overall, on a combined basis, we're actually ahead of where we'd expected to be. I would say, at least as much license revenue to overcome that.

是的。就 Q2 的指引而言，我們確實下調了，我想，可能相較於我們幾季前的預期。我們當時沒有對外指引，但我想我們原先的預期是會稍微更高一些。我們現在指引 Q2 權利金成長為 13%。同時我們也提高了授權成長。整體來看，以合併基礎而言，我們其實比原先預期還要超前。我會說，至少有足夠的授權營收來彌補那部分。

So I don't really expect overall to be any sort of a slowdown. Now the thing that could change is we continue to see the cloud AI business over-performed. And in particular, we're really seeing strong deployments from some of our partners like Google with their Axion as it's paring with all the new TPU deployments, certainly, Amazon and then certainly with Vera at NVIDIA, Amazon 'with Graviton and then we have other hyperscalers that are also exceeding their plans, so -- and increasing their trajectory and their velocity. So there are certainly some possible upsides on royalties throughout the year. But if I had to say right now, I would not expect there to be weakness across the overall business.

所以我不太預期整體會出現任何形式的放緩。不過可能改變的因素是，我們持續看到雲端 AI 業務表現超出預期。特別是，我們確實看到一些合作夥伴的部署非常強勁，例如 Google 的 Axion，搭配其所有新的 TPU 部署；當然還有 Amazon；以及 NVIDIA 的 Vera；Amazon 這邊有 Graviton；另外也有其他超大規模雲端業者（hyperscalers）同樣超出其計畫，因此——他們正在提高其軌跡與速度。所以今年權利金確實存在一些可能的上行空間。但如果要我現在下結論，我不會預期整體業務會有疲弱。

It just might be some weakness in the smartphone side of the business, and we'll just have to wait and see how the cloud AI business, if it's able to overcome all of it or just some of it, we'll have to update you as we go later into the year. And then in terms of '29 -- I'm sorry, '28 and '29, yes, I think the 20% plus royalty growth that we provided, I think that's very much still intact. The things that are happening right now, the only real weakness in royalties is really on the smartphone side, in particular to some of the memory issues there. And while they're certainly having a tough year this year, I think most of the partners that we talk to seem to think that there's going to be stronger recovery in the back half of the year. And so I would expect that the year-on-year growth rates by next year should be kind of back in line as we start to lap some of these challenges.

可能只是智慧型手機端的業務會有些疲弱；至於雲端 AI 業務是否能完全抵消、或只能抵消一部分，我們只能再觀察，並在今年稍晚隨進展更新你們。至於 '29——抱歉，是 '28 和 '29，是的，我認為我們所提供的 20% 以上權利金成長，仍然非常完整、沒有改變。目前權利金唯一真正的疲弱其實是在智慧型手機端，特別是那邊的一些記憶體問題。雖然他們今年確實很艱難，但我們談到的大多數合作夥伴似乎都認為下半年會有更強的復甦。因此我預期，到了明年，隨著我們開始跨過（lap）這些挑戰，年對年成長率應該會回到比較一致的水準。

And then, of course, as we continue to see the AI deployments continue to grow at the level, they have been that we should be able to again be in that 20% range next year and beyond.

然後，當然，隨著我們持續看到 AI 部署以目前的水準成長，我們應該能在明年及之後再次回到約 20% 的區間。

OKrish Sankar, TD Cowen.

OKrish Sankar，TD Cowen。

This is Steven calling on behalf of Krish. Rene, I had a question on low-cost AI models. Just with the recent cycle of headlines around low-cost AI, whether from China or elsewhere, do you see the proliferation of low-cost AI being a net positive or negative for your AGI CPU franchise given your market positioning? And also, if you could also walk us through how low-cost AI might be a pro or con for your IP business, like for both data center and the edge side of things.

我是 Steven，代表 Krish 來提問。Rene，我有一個關於低成本 AI 模型的問題。最近一波關於低成本 AI 的新聞標題，不論是來自中國或其他地方，你認為低成本 AI 的普及，對你們的 AGI CPU 事業（franchise）而言，基於你們的市場定位，會是淨正面還是淨負面？另外，也請你說明一下，低成本 AI 對你們的 IP 業務可能帶來的利與弊，例如在資料中心與邊緣端兩方面。

Yes. Thank you for the question. I'm going to presume that when you say low-cost AI, you're referring to open-source models, open weight, et cetera. If the world moves to something that's more open source-based, AKA open weights, for us, I think it's somewhere between a net neutral to a net positive. And I start with net neutral from the perspective of we're somewhat agnostic relative to whether it's a closed frontier model or an open-source model.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我先假設你說的低成本 AI，是指開源模型、開放權重（open weight）等等。如果世界走向更以開源為基礎、也就是開放權重，對我們而言，我認為介於淨中性到淨正面之間。我先從淨中性的角度說起：我們對於它是封閉的前沿模型（closed frontier model）或開源模型，其實相對上是中立的。

Those models all require CPUs. They all require the IP that we deliver for people to build custom chips. So whether it's an opportunity for Arm AGI CPU or the IP or compute subsystems, we're going to be required independent of what those models are, just frankly, just given the nature of the workloads that need to get run, they're kind of independent of the hardware underneath it. You need CPUs to run agents, whether that's open source or closed source.

那些模型都需要 CPU。它們也都需要我們所提供的 IP，讓人們能打造客製化晶片。所以不論是 Arm AGI CPU 的機會、或是 IP、或是運算子系統（compute subsystems），不管那些模型是什麼，我們都會是必要的一環；坦白說，基於必須執行的工作負載本質，它們某種程度上與底層硬體無關。你需要 CPU 來跑 agents，不論是開源或閉源。

There's a very interesting argument about to be made relative to the potential of those open-source models being much more differentiated, smaller, more efficient, that could run in different edge footprints. If that were to happen, it would be a great thing for Arm just given the footprint that we have in smaller edge devices.

另外有一個很有意思的論點：這些開源模型可能會更具差異化、更小、更高效率，能在不同的邊緣裝置規模（edge footprints）上運行。如果真的發生，那對 Arm 會是很棒的事，因為我們在較小型的邊緣裝置上有很大的既有佈局。

Right now, the most sophisticated models that are the closed models, all are literally 100% cloud based. The RTX Spark that was announced is a very interesting product where you could potentially run some smaller models locally. I think open source has traditionally shown that whether it's in this area or any other software domain, widely broadens the choice relative to how you run different things. In other words, open-source leads to higher innovation and differentiation.

目前最先進、也就是封閉式的模型，基本上都是 100% 在雲端運行。剛宣布的 RTX Spark 是個非常有趣的產品，你可能可以在本地端跑一些較小的模型。我認為開源在傳統上已經證明，不論是在這個領域或任何其他軟體領域，它都能大幅擴展你用不同方式來運行各種事物的選擇。換句話說，開源會帶來更高的創新與差異化。

So I think it's either neutral to a positive depending on where it goes at the edges. But probably the most important thing to remember about Arm, and it applies here as well is we're pretty agnostic to the top layer. All of that will need to run on our CPUs and our IP.

所以我認為這可能是中性到正面，取決於它在邊緣端的走向。但關於 Arm 可能最重要、而且在這裡同樣適用的一點是：我們對最上層其實相當不偏不倚。所有這些都需要在我們的 CPU 與我們的 IP 上運行。

We will now take our final question for today.

我們現在將進行今天最後一個提問。

Timm Schulze-Melander, Rothschild & Co.

Timm Schulze-Melander，Rothschild & Co.。

I had two. One was a more kind of operational question, maybe for Jason. Just talking about the timing and the sequential quarter-to-quarter cadence of R&D, you talked about how it had come in below your expectations. And I just wonder maybe if you could talk about how that kind of comes to pass. Is it kind of a milestone-based thing and that maybe they're not met and so that the cost slips a quarter or two? Is it a capitalization issue? Just how does -- what are the things that dictate the timing of R&D cost in the P&L? And then I had a quick follow-up on the CPU.

我有兩個問題。第一個比較偏營運面的問題，可能給 Jason。談到研發費用在時間點與逐季（QoQ）節奏的安排，你提到它低於你們的預期。我想請教這種情況通常是怎麼發生的。這是否比較像是以里程碑為基礎，可能里程碑沒有達成，所以成本就延後一到兩季？還是資本化的問題？總之，究竟有哪些因素會決定損益表（P&L）上研發費用入帳的時間點？然後我還有一個關於 CPU 的簡短追問。

Sure. So with OpEx, we did come in a little bit lower. When it comes to OpEx, you have to break out -- on R&D, you have to break it down into really two buckets. So you have the people or developer costs and then you have the tools that they're using, which are typically emulation, cloud spend, et cetera. And so in this last quarter, we did come in a little bit below, and that would be more not on the people's side because that was pretty much right in line. I would say it was really more on kind of the tools that were utilized and necessary versus what our forecast was.

好的。就營業費用（OpEx）而言，我們確實略低一些。談到 OpEx，你需要拆開來看——在研發（R&D）上，你基本上要把它分成兩大類。一類是人員或開發者成本，另一類是他們使用的工具，通常包括模擬（emulation）、雲端支出等。因此在上一季，我們確實略低一些，而這主要不是在人員端，因為那部分基本上符合預期。我會說主要是在工具的使用與需求上，相較於我們的預測來得低一些。

So I think for the most part, you should think about kind of banking that savings that we delivered in Q1. And then going forward, our estimates, I think, are pretty similar, maybe a little bit lower. So overall, again, you can bank the savings from Q1 and then assume that for rest of the year, just at a high level, it's going to grow by kind of mid-single-digit percentage quarter-on-quarter, the overall OpEx. And the things that can move, it's less around the total number of engineers because that number is one that we're -- we can forecast and we're pretty consistent with. It's really just about what is the tool utilization that's necessary.

所以我認為大致上，你可以把我們在第一季（Q1）帶來的節省視為可以「存下來」的成果。而往後看，我們的估計我認為相當接近，可能略低一點。因此整體而言，再次強調，你可以把 Q1 的節省先記住，並假設今年剩餘時間，從高層次來看，整體 OpEx 會以每季約中個位數百分比的幅度逐季成長。而可能變動的因素，較少是工程師總人數，因為這個數字我們可以預測，而且相當一致。真正的關鍵在於需要多少工具使用量。

And so certainly, with things like emulation and cloud spend, that's going to flex a little bit based on what are we learning on the latest developments? And do we need to increase some of our testing? Or are we kind of done? And so as a result, we're getting better and better at forecasting this, but it does move around a little bit because we've really only been doing this now for the last year or two. And so I would expect our variance probably to get smaller going forward.

因此，像模擬與雲端支出這類項目，會依據我們在最新開發上學到什麼而有些彈性。我們是否需要增加一些測試？或者我們是否差不多完成了？所以結果是，我們在這方面的預測能力越來越好，但它仍會有些波動，因為我們真正開始這樣做也才過去一兩年。因此我預期未來我們的差異（variance）應該會變得更小。

Got it. And then just to circle back on the AGI CPU conversion of customer engagement and interest and, as you've described, being able to kind of bring that across the Rubicon and book it as a firm order. Just wanted to understand and just kind of circle back, just confirm what we're talking about here. So we're talking about maybe early calendar '27 as you come into the December quarter report that you should have more visibility.

了解。那再回到 AGI CPU，把客戶互動與興趣轉換——如你所描述——能夠跨過那道門檻，並把它記為確定訂單。我想確認一下我們在談的是什麼。所以我們談的是，可能在 2027 年曆年初，當你們進入 12 月季度的財報時，你們應該會有更高的能見度。

And I guess one of the things I'm just thinking about is, is there a concern or is it possible or probable that you get into a kind of golden screw type situation that you've got 99% covered. But because there's tightness, you're missing one small component that could kind of stymy that? Or is it really not quite that vulnerable to one single sort of small component to be missing?

我在想的其中一點是：是否有疑慮，或是否可能／很可能出現所謂「金螺絲（golden screw）」的情況——也就是 99% 都到位了。但因為供應緊張，你缺少某個小零件，結果可能讓整件事卡住？還是說其實並沒有那麼脆弱，不至於因為缺少某一個小零件就出問題？

If I make sure I understand, your question is: as we get closer to fulfilling the demand for the product, is there still some risk at the 11 hour that one critical component that we haven't secured could tip the whole thing over. No. There's not a concern of that. We are very confident in terms of the partners we're working with. We have a very good understanding of their capabilities and their upside capabilities. So there isn't one single point of failure that to your point of the 1% that could cause an issue.

如果我先確認我理解正確，你的問題是：當我們越接近滿足產品需求時，是否仍存在最後關頭因為某個我們尚未確保的關鍵零組件，而讓整體交付翻盤的風險。不會。我們不擔心這點。我們對於合作夥伴非常有信心。我們非常清楚他們的能力，以及他們的上行產能。因此，不會存在你所說的那種單一失效點——也就是那 1% 可能造成問題的情況。

This concludes today's Q&A. I will now hand back to Rene for closing remarks.

今天的問答到此結束。我現在把時間交回給 Rene 作結語。

Thank you. The quarter for us is really a tale of two stories. One is the core business itself, the IP business continues to perform extremely well, a record first quarter, and we are guiding ahead of expectations, as Jason had mentioned, and our results were beyond expectations. The growth is really being driven by the data center. Arm continues to increase its market share, and we have many key customers now shipping Neoverse cores, which, as I mentioned before, have now surpassed 1.5 billion.

謝謝。對我們而言，這一季其實是兩個故事的交織。第一個是核心業務本身，IP 業務持續表現非常強勁，創下第一季新高紀錄；而且如 Jason 所提到的，我們給出的指引高於市場預期，我們的實際結果也超出預期。成長主要由資料中心所帶動。Arm 持續提升市占率，我們現在有許多關鍵客戶正在出貨 Neoverse 核心；如我先前提到的，累計已經超過 15 億顆。

But we also now have our new business, the Arm AGI CPU business, which we just announced back in March. The confidence level we have in the success of that product only continues to increase. And as we talked about, the demand is greater than what we shared 90 days ago. And at the same time, our confidence to fulfill that demand has also increased.

但我們現在也有新的業務，也就是 Arm AGI CPU 業務，我們在 3 月才剛宣布。我們對該產品成功的信心只會持續提升。而且如我們所談到的，需求比我們 90 天前分享的還要更強。同時，我們對於滿足該需求的信心也提高了。

So all in all, very proud of the results that we've achieved, a great quarter for the company, and thank you all for your interest and questions.

總而言之，我們對所達成的成果感到非常自豪，這對公司而言是很棒的一季，也謝謝各位的關注與提問。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。