ARM Holdings PLC (ARM) 2027 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Arm second-quarter fiscal year 2027 webcast and conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

大家好，感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 Arm 2027 會計年度第二季網路直播與電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your first speaker today, Ian Thornton, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議交給今天的第一位講者，投資人關係副總裁 Ian Thornton。請開始。

Thank you very much, and welcome to our second-quarter fiscal '27 earnings call. On the call are Rene Haas, Arm's Chief Executive Officer; and Jason Child, Arm's Chief Financial Officer.

非常感謝，歡迎各位參加我們 2027 會計年度第二季財報電話會議。今天與會者包括 Arm 執行長 Rene Haas，以及 Arm 財務長 Jason Child。

Today's call contains forward-looking information about the company and its financial results. While these statements represent our best current judgment, our business is subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Important risk factors that may affect our business and future financial results are described in our annual report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC. Arm assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

今天的電話會議包含有關公司及其財務結果的前瞻性資訊。雖然這些陳述代表我們目前最佳判斷，但我們的業務面臨許多風險與不確定性，可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。可能影響我們業務及未來財務結果的重要風險因素，已載於我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的 Form 20-F 年度報告中。Arm 不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

We will also refer to non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our shareholder letter, as can the discussion of certain projected non-GAAP financial measures that we're not able to reconcile without unreasonable efforts and supplemental financial information. Our earnings materials are available at investors.arm.com.

我們也將提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標之調節表可在我們的股東信中找到；同時也包含對某些預估非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的討論，對於這些指標，若不付出不合理的努力，我們無法進行調節，並提供補充財務資訊。我們的財報相關資料可於 investors.arm.com 取得。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Rene.

接下來，我把電話會議交給 Rene。

Thank you, Ian, and good afternoon, everyone. Arm delivered a record second quarter. Revenue reached $1.44 billion, up 27% year over year, marking our fifth straight quarter of growth above 20%. License and other revenue grew 50% to $773 million, driven by our partners increasing their investment in the Arm Compute platform. This strong licensing momentum is an important leading indicator of future royalties, which we expect to accelerate as these new designs enter production.

謝謝你，Ian，各位下午好。Arm 交出創紀錄的第二季表現。營收達 14.4 億美元，年增 27%，這是我們連續第五個季度成長超過 20%。授權與其他營收成長 50% 至 7.73 億美元，主要受惠於合作夥伴加大對 Arm Compute 平台的投資。這股強勁的授權動能，是未來權利金的重要領先指標；隨著這些新設計進入量產，我們預期權利金將加速成長。

Second-quarter royalty revenue grew 8% to $670 million, with data center royalties doubling year over year, and non-GAAP earnings per share increased 33% to $0.52 while we continue to increase our investment in R&D.

第二季權利金營收成長 8% 至 6.70 億美元，其中資料中心權利金年增一倍；在我們持續加大研發投資的同時，非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長 33% 至 0.52 美元。

AI is driving unprecedented demand for compute across the cloud, devices, and autonomous systems, with Arm being the compute platform of choice. Today, our business is now driven by two rapidly growing areas: the IP business, where partners are increasing investment in the Arm Compute platform and deploying record numbers of Arm-based chips; and our new silicon business, where demand for the Arm AGI CPU is extremely strong. Both leverage the same Arm compute platform and software ecosystem.

AI 正在推動雲端、裝置與自主系統對運算的前所未有需求，而 Arm 已成為首選運算平台。目前，我們的業務由兩個快速成長的領域驅動：其一是 IP 業務，合作夥伴正增加對 Arm Compute 平台的投資，並部署創紀錄數量的 Arm 架構晶片；其二是我們新的矽晶片業務，市場對 Arm AGI CPU 的需求極為強勁。兩者皆運用相同的 Arm 運算平台與軟體生態系。

We are seeing these two growth vectors play out clearly in the data center, where our partners are expanding their deployment of Arm-based infrastructure alongside strong demand for Arm design silicon.

我們清楚看到這兩股成長動能在資料中心領域的展現：合作夥伴在擴大部署 Arm 架構基礎設施的同時，對 Arm 設計的矽晶片也有強勁需求。

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, OCI, is a key example of how these two businesses reinforce one another. Today, OCI offers NVIDIA Vera CPUs built on Arm and in addition, plans to offer Arm AGI CPU instances in 2027.

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure（OCI）就是這兩項業務如何相互強化的關鍵例子。目前，OCI 提供採用 Arm 架構的 NVIDIA Vera CPU，此外也計畫於 2027 年提供 Arm AGI CPU 執行個體。

Since launching the Arm AGI CPU in March, customer demand has continued to strengthen. We have secured purchase orders from multiple customers extending through calendar 2027, and first commercial deliveries remain on track for fiscal Q4 '27.

自 3 月推出 Arm AGI CPU 以來，客戶需求持續增強。我們已取得多家客戶延伸至 2027 日曆年的採購訂單，且首批商用交付仍按計畫於 2027 會計年度第四季進行。

Our confidence in achieving up to $2 billion of revenue in Arm AGI CPU across fiscal 2027 and 2028 has increased over the last 90 days supported by additional supply and customer mix. We remain focused on expanding capacity to meet growing customer demand.

在過去 90 天內，受額外供應與客戶組合的支持，我們對於在 2027 與 2028 會計年度合計達成最高 20 億美元 Arm AGI CPU 營收的信心有所提升。我們仍專注於擴充產能，以滿足持續成長的客戶需求。

Power availability makes performance and efficiency even more important. Morgan Stanley projects a 38-gigawatt global data center power shortfall through 2028. Arm is helping customers address this constraint by delivering more useful compute and the power already available.

電力供應的可用性，使效能與效率變得更加重要。摩根士丹利預估，至 2028 年全球資料中心電力將短缺 38 吉瓦。Arm 正協助客戶因應此限制，在既有可用電力下提供更多有用的運算能力。

At OCP, independent testing by Signal65 show the Arm AGI CPU, delivering approximately twice the performance per rack versus the AMD EPYC 9755. This type of improvement could reduce the projected global power shortfall by half.

在 OCP 上，Signal65 的獨立測試顯示，Arm AGI CPU 每機架可提供約為 AMD EPYC 9755 兩倍的效能。此類提升可望將預估的全球電力短缺減半。

Our data center royalty has doubled year over year, and Arm-based server market share at the top hyperscalers has more than tripled from 15% in calendar 2024 to more than 50% in calendar 2025. Based upon expected ramps across Google Axion, AWS Graviton, Microsoft Cobalt, and NVIDIA platforms, we now expect that share to exceed 60% by the end of calendar 2026.

我們的資料中心權利金年增一倍，而在頂級超大規模雲端業者中，Arm 架構伺服器市占率已從 2024 日曆年的 15% 提升至 2025 日曆年的 50% 以上，成長超過三倍。基於 Google Axion、AWS Graviton、Microsoft Cobalt 與 NVIDIA 平台的預期放量，我們現在預期該市占率將在 2026 日曆年年底前超過 60%。

Beyond the data center, Arm's role in edge AI increases as AI agents become more capable and persistent. Arm-based PCs have now reached 20% of global shipments.

除了資料中心之外，隨著 AI 代理變得更強大且更具持續性，Arm 在邊緣 AI 的角色也日益提升。採用 Arm 架構的 PC 目前已達全球出貨量的 20%。

Google recently announced Googlebook, a new category of AI-native laptops built for Gemini Intelligence, with Arm serving as the primary compute platform for many models. NVIDIA's RTX Spark systems, which are now available, further expand Arm into local AI, content creation, and gaming.

Google 近期宣布 Googlebook，這是一個為 Gemini Intelligence 打造的全新 AI 原生筆電類別，其中許多機型以 Arm 作為主要運算平台。NVIDIA 的 RTX Spark 系統目前已上市，進一步擴大 Arm 在本地端 AI、內容創作與遊戲領域的布局。

In smartphones, Arm recently announced CSS for Mobile 2, which improves performance of agentic AI workloads by up to 70% through SME2. Our first AI-native Mali GPU delivers up to four times the frame rate at the same sustained power.

在智慧型手機方面，Arm 近期發布 CSS for Mobile 2，透過 SME2 可將代理式（agentic）AI 工作負載的效能提升最高達 70%。我們首款 AI 原生 Mali GPU 在相同的可持續功耗下，可提供最高達四倍的幀率。

These capabilities allow more AI and richer experiences to run directly on the device without compromising battery life.

這些能力讓更多 AI 與更豐富的體驗能直接在裝置端運行，同時不犧牲電池續航。

Arm is the platform of choice for physical AI. Royalty revenue grew 50% year over year, driven by advanced driver assistance and in-vehicle infotainment. We also launched Arm Total Design for physical AI, bringing together more than 80 companies to accelerate the development and deployment of complete physical AI systems.

Arm 是實體 AI（physical AI）的首選平台。權利金營收年增 50%，主要由先進駕駛輔助系統與車載資訊娛樂所帶動。我們也推出面向實體 AI 的 Arm Total Design，匯聚超過 80 家公司，加速完整實體 AI 系統的開發與部署。

For the first time, our partners reported more than 10 billion Arm-based chips shipped in a single quarter, an increase of 1.5 billion year on year, supported by a software ecosystem of more than 30 million developers.

我們的合作夥伴首次在單一季度回報出貨超過 100 億顆 Arm 架構晶片，較去年同期增加 15 億顆，並由超過 3,000 萬名開發者的軟體生態系所支持。

Demand for Arm technology has never been stronger as AI is driving more complex designs and greater demand for power-efficient compute. Our IP business generates licensing revenue as those designs begin and royalties as they enter production. And now, Arm AGI CPU as a new, direct silicon business built on the same compute platform and software ecosystem. That gives Arm two powerful growth engines, which we expect to accelerate revenue at a faster pace in the future.

隨著 AI 推動更複雜的設計並提升對高能效運算的需求，市場對 Arm 技術的需求從未如此強勁。我們的 IP 業務在設計啟動時產生授權收入，並在進入量產時產生權利金。而現在，Arm AGI CPU 作為建立在相同運算平台與軟體生態系之上的全新、直接矽晶片業務。這讓 Arm 擁有兩個強勁的成長引擎，我們預期未來營收將以更快速度加速成長。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Jason.

接下來，我把時間交給 Jason。

Thank you, Rene. We delivered another strong quarter with total revenue growing 27% year on year to $1.44 billion. This was a record for our second quarter and our second-highest quarterly revenue ever, reflecting continued strength in our business.

謝謝你，Rene。我們再度交出強勁的一季，總營收年增 27% 至 14.4 億美元。這是我們第二季的歷史新高，也是我們有史以來第二高的單季營收，反映我們業務持續強勁。

License and other revenue was $773 million, up 50% year on year, also a record for the second quarter and our second-highest quarter ever. License revenue was around $100 million higher than we had anticipated due to an acceleration of interest from customers wanting to sign long-term commitments to access Arm technology.

授權與其他營收為 7.73 億美元，年增 50%，同樣創下第二季新高，並為我們歷來第二高的單季表現。由於客戶希望簽署長期承諾以取得 Arm 技術的興趣加速，授權營收較我們原先預期高出約 1 億美元。

During the quarter, we signed three new Arm Total Access agreements, bringing the total number of active ATA subscriptions to more than 60. This included one of our major customers signing their first ATA license.

在本季度期間，我們簽署了三份新的 Arm Total Access（ATA）協議，使得有效 ATA 訂閱總數提升至 60 份以上。其中包括我們的一家主要客戶首次簽署 ATA 授權。

We also signed four additional compute subsystem licenses, two for data center chips, and two for smartphones. For established customers, these agreements broaden and deepen access to our future technology road map and provide an important foundation for Arm's future royalty growth.

我們也額外簽署了四份運算子系統（compute subsystem）授權，其中兩份用於資料中心晶片、兩份用於智慧型手機。對既有客戶而言，這些協議擴大並加深其對我們未來技術路線圖的存取，並為 Arm 未來權利金成長提供重要基礎。

In addition, we are seeing ATA and CSS as a way for newer customers who have previously made only limited use of Arm technology to accelerate their adoption with several signing ATA or CSS licenses during the quarter.

此外，我們也看到 ATA 與 CSS 成為較新客戶的一種方式：這些客戶過去僅有限度使用 Arm 技術，現在可加速採用；本季度已有多家客戶簽署 ATA 或 CSS 授權。

Of the $773 million on license revenue, our agreement with SoftBank for technology licensing and design services contributed $209 million, up 17% year on year. We expect a quarterly run rate for the rest of the year to remain around this level.

在 7.73 億美元的授權營收中，我們與 SoftBank 的技術授權與設計服務協議貢獻了 2.09 億美元，年增 17%。我們預期今年其餘季度的季度化運行水準（run rate）將大致維持在此水準附近。

Annualized contract value grew 12% year on year. As we have discussed before, license revenue can vary significantly from quarter to quarter based on the timing and accounting treatment of large agreements, so ACV remains a useful measure of the underlying licensing trend.

年化合約價值（ACV）年增 12%。如同我們先前討論過的，授權營收可能因大型協議的簽訂時點與會計處理方式而在各季度間大幅波動，因此 ACV 仍是衡量底層授權趨勢的有用指標。

Turning now to royalty. Royalty revenue was $670 million, up 8% year on year, also our highest-ever figure for Q2. Cloud AI remained the largest growth driver. Once again, data center royalty doubled year on year as Arm-based CPUs ramp across AI infrastructure and general-purpose cloud workloads.

接著談權利金。權利金營收為 6.70 億美元，年增 8%，同時也是我們 Q2 歷史新高。雲端 AI 仍是最大的成長驅動力。資料中心權利金再次年增一倍，因採用 Arm 架構的 CPU 在 AI 基礎設施與通用雲端工作負載中加速放量。

Physical AI royalty revenue grew 50% year on year, driven by increasing adoption of Arm technology in automotive and robotics.

實體 AI（Physical AI）權利金營收年增 50%，主要受汽車與機器人領域對 Arm 技術採用提升所帶動。

In edge AI, royalty revenue was roughly flat year on year. Higher memory prices continue to pressure smartphone unit sales, particularly in the mid- and lower-tier segments. That headwind was offset by the benefit we continue to see from higher royalty rates as our latest Armv9 and CSS technologies are adopted. As smartphone market conditions normalize, we expect edge AI royalty revenue to reaccelerate.

在邊緣 AI（edge AI）方面，權利金營收與去年同期大致持平。記憶體價格走高持續壓抑智慧型手機出貨量，尤其是在中低階區隔。不過，隨著我們最新的 Armv9 與 CSS 技術被採用，我們持續受惠於較高的權利金費率，抵銷了上述逆風。隨著智慧型手機市場狀況正常化，我們預期邊緣 AI 權利金營收將重新加速成長。

As Rene discussed, customer demand for the Arm AGI CPU remains very strong. Last quarter, we said that we increased confidence -- we had increased confidence in achieving more than $1 billion across fiscal year '27 and '28. In the past 90 days, we have signed purchase orders from multiple customers and signed supply agreements with companies in our supply chain, giving us increased confidence in achieving up to $2 billion across fiscal '27 and '28. We will provide another update at our Q3 results, which is when we will have better visibility.

如 Rene 所提到的，客戶對 Arm AGI CPU 的需求仍然非常強勁。上個季度我們表示，我們對於在 2027 與 2028 會計年度合計達成超過 10 億美元的目標更有信心。在過去 90 天內，我們已取得多家客戶的採購訂單，並與供應鏈中的公司簽署供應協議，使我們對於在 2027 與 2028 會計年度合計達成最高 20 億美元的目標更具信心。我們將在 Q3 財報時提供下一次更新，屆時我們將有更好的能見度。

Turning to operating expenses and profits. Non-GAAP operating expense was $774 million, up 19% year on year as we continue to expand our engineering capacity and invest in next-generation platforms, compute subsystems, and our Arm AGI CPU product family.

接著談營業費用與獲利。非 GAAP 營業費用為 7.74 億美元，年增 19%，因我們持續擴充工程研發能力，並投資於下一代平台、運算子系統，以及我們的 Arm AGI CPU 產品系列。

Non-GAAP operating income was $638 million, up 37% year on year. Non-GAAP operating margin was 44.2%, up 300 basis points from a year ago as revenue outpaced operating expense growth. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.52, up 33% year on year.

非 GAAP 營業利益為 6.38 億美元，年增 37%。非 GAAP 營業利益率為 44.2%，較去年提升 300 個基點，因營收成長速度超過營業費用成長。非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）為 0.52 美元，年增 33%。

Importantly, even at these elevated levels of investment, we generated free cash flow of $1.1 billion over the trailing 12 months, giving us the flexibility to continue to invest for long-term growth.

重要的是，即使在這些較高的投資水準下，我們在過去 12 個月仍產生 11 億美元的自由現金流，使我們能夠保持彈性，持續投資以推動長期成長。

Turning now to guidance. For Q3, we expect revenue of $1.54 billion, plus or minus $50 million. At the midpoint, this represents growth of approximately 24% year on year. We expect continued strong growth in license and other revenue, up a little over 50% year on year, supported by strong customer demand and our visibility into the licensing pipeline.

接著談財測指引。針對 Q3，我們預期營收為 15.4 億美元，上下浮動 5,000 萬美元。以中位數計算，這代表年增約 24%。在強勁客戶需求以及我們對授權案源（pipeline）的能見度支持下，我們預期授權及其他營收將持續強勁成長，年增略高於 50%。

In royalties, we expect continued strength in cloud AI and physical AI, offset by ongoing pressure in edge AI from weaker smartphone demand, and we have a tough year-on-year comp. As a result, we expect royalty revenue to grow low-teens sequentially and low-single digits year on year.

在權利金方面，我們預期雲端 AI 與實體 AI 將持續強勁，但邊緣 AI 仍將受到智慧型手機需求疲弱的持續壓力所抵銷，且我們面臨較高的去年同期比較基期。因此，我們預期權利金營收將呈現季增低十位數百分比、年增低個位數百分比。

We expect non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $825 million and non-GAAP EPS of $0.56, plus or minus $0.04.

我們預期非 GAAP 營業費用約為 8.25 億美元，非 GAAP EPS 為 0.56 美元，上下浮動 0.04 美元。

Looking further ahead, we continue to see strong customer demand across our business, combined with the expansion of our technology portfolio and deepening strategic customer relationships, this gives us confidence in our long-term growth outlook.

展望更長期，我們持續看到各業務線的客戶需求強勁；再加上我們技術產品組合的擴張以及策略性客戶關係的深化，使我們對長期成長展望更具信心。

With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for Q&A.

接下來，我把電話交回給接線員，進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Gary Mobley, StoneX Group.

（接線員指示）Gary Mobley，StoneX Group。

Good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. I think on the top of the mind for everybody is Arm AGI CPU, and you're obviously signaling something closer to $2 billion in revenue over the five-quarter period up to the end of fiscal year '28. So I'm wondering what's driving your confidence in that with respect to securing more supply with your different partners. And I would assume most of the revenue initially goes to supporting Meta, but maybe you can talk about whether or not you've signed and committed contractually with additional customers.

各位下午好。感謝讓我提問。我想大家最關心的焦點是 Arm AGI CPU，而你們顯然在釋出訊號：在截至 2028 會計年度末的五個季度期間，營收更接近 20 億美元。因此我想了解，你們對此的信心主要來自哪些因素，特別是在與不同合作夥伴取得更多供應方面。我也假設初期大部分營收會用於支援 Meta，但也請談談你們是否已與其他客戶完成簽約並在合約上作出承諾。

Thanks, Gary. I'll take that question, and Jason can add if I've missed anything.

謝謝你，Gary。我來回答這個問題，Jason 也可以補充我若有遺漏的部分。

Each one of the quarters, as we talk about the ramp of the product, we've been careful to make sure that we manage the expectations of supply and demand. I think there's no secret that in general, demand is incredibly strong for the Arm AGI CPU, really driven by everything we see with agentic workloads and the CPU being central to that.

每一個季度，當我們談到產品放量（ramp）時，我們都很謹慎，確保能妥善管理供需預期。我想大家都知道，整體而言 Arm AGI CPU 的需求極為強勁，主要是由我們所看到的各種代理式（agentic）工作負載所驅動，而 CPU 在其中扮演核心角色。

Demand is stronger today than we talked about when we did the Arm Everywhere event in March and subsequently demand for multiple customers, Meta being the chief customer, has also been beyond what we've expected. That being said, we've been working very hard over the last few quarters on securing what's necessary in the supply chain to address that demand.

目前的需求比我們在 3 月舉辦 Arm Everywhere 活動時所談到的還要強；此外，來自多家客戶（其中 Meta 為主要客戶）的需求也超出我們的預期。即便如此，過去幾個季度我們一直非常努力，確保供應鏈中必要的資源，以滿足這些需求。

There's multiple components to it. There is wafer supply, there are substrates, there are testers, there's memory, et cetera. We have wanted to be confident when we signal our ability to achieve this extra demand with supply in the ongoing quarters.

這涉及多個組成要素。包括晶圓供應、載板、測試設備、記憶體等等。當我們對外釋出訊號、表示我們有能力在接下來的季度以供應來滿足額外需求時，我們希望自己是有把握的。

So at Arm Everywhere Day, we talked about visibility of $1 billion and quickly we have seen that to about a $2 billion number. I can tell you today that the confidence is the strongest it's been to date and it's definitely stronger than it was 90 days ago in terms of securing that supply. And as I said, it's across all of those independent areas. But we didn't start working on it yesterday or the previous quarter. We've been working on it actually for the last number of quarters. We've got great partners who are supporting us here. And as you mentioned, Meta is a chief customer, but there will be multiple customers beyond Meta.

因此在 Arm Everywhere Day，我們談到對 10 億美元的能見度，而我們很快就看到這個數字提升到約 20 億美元。我可以告訴你，今天我們的信心是迄今最強的；就確保供應而言，也絕對比 90 天前更強。如我所說，這涵蓋上述各個獨立領域。但我們不是昨天或上一季才開始做這件事。事實上，我們已經在過去好幾個季度持續推進。我們有很棒的合作夥伴在此支持我們。而如你所提到的，Meta 是主要客戶，但除了 Meta 之外也會有多家客戶。

Jason, I don't know if there's anything that you want to add. So if not, thanks, Gary, for the question.

Jason，我不確定你是否還有什麼想補充的。如果沒有的話，謝謝你，Gary，提出這個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Please continue, Gary.

請繼續，Gary。

My apologies. I was just hoping to ask a follow-up question briefly. You've given us enough information in the shareholder letter to calculate your royalty rate per unit on a year-over-year basis, and it looks like it's trending up at least a mid-single-digit percent. So I'm wondering if that's just sort of an anomaly with respect to mix or if that should be how we view the royalty rate per unit growth over the long term?

抱歉。我只是希望能簡短追問一個問題。你們在致股東信中提供了足夠資訊，讓我們可以按年計算你們每單位的權利金費率，看起來至少呈現中個位數百分比的上升趨勢。所以我想請教，這只是產品組合造成的異常現象，還是我們應該把每單位權利金費率的成長，視為長期的趨勢？

Yeah, it's -- I mean, it's mixed, but it's also, I think we said, what, 10 billion chips shipped in the quarter. And so it's going to bounce around based on any particular quarter. I would say certainly, mobile on average is probably a little lower than certainly server and physical AI given the size and value of the chips, and so that probably had some impact. So I don't know that I would take the overall average across 10 billion chips and use that as the best way to forecast going forward.

是的，這個——我的意思是，確實跟組合有關，但同時，我想我們也提到過，這一季出貨了大概100億顆晶片。所以它會因為每一季的情況而上下波動。我會說，行動端平均而言可能比伺服器和實體AI要低一些，因為晶片的尺寸與價值不同，所以這可能有一些影響。因此，我不確定把這100億顆晶片的整體平均值拿來，會是預測未來的最佳方式。

I do think if you break it out by the three different business units, as we said, pretty flattish growth in the mobile business, very strong double-digit growth in server where we're also seeing the increasing core counts and more CSS revenue flowing through this quarter, but we're going to continue seeing that going forward. That's why we have high confidence that we're going to have triple-digit growth for the next few years.

我確實認為，如果你按我們所說的三個不同事業單位拆開來看：行動業務成長相當平緩；伺服器業務則是非常強勁的雙位數成長，我們也看到核心數持續增加，而且本季有更多CSS收入流入，但未來也會持續看到這種情況。這也是為什麼我們對未來幾年將出現三位數成長有很高的信心。

And then on physical AI, that one is also, we said, growing 50% year on year. That's also going to, I'd say, be a bit of a tailwind to overall royalty rates and overall royalty growth. But again, I would probably break into those three categories as opposed to just looking at it all combined together.

至於實體AI，我們也說過，它年增50%。我會說，這也會對整體權利金費率以及整體權利金成長形成一些順風。但同樣地，我可能會把它拆成這三個類別來看，而不是把全部合在一起看。

Maybe, Gary, just a finer point on the data center growth. I think there's two vectors independent of the Arm AGI CPU on the royalty. One is Arm taking market share, which I mentioned before. Now, we think it's going to be 60% by the end of the year. That market share gain is driven both in terms of units going up, agentic AI driving increased design starts for Graviton, Cobalt, Axion, et cetera. But in addition, we are seeing a transition away from x86 to Arm for the head node CPU that connects to accelerators. We already know about Vera Rubin, but Google has already announced the conversion of x86 to Axion connecting to a TPU Version 8.

Gary，或許再補充一個更細的點，關於資料中心的成長。我認為在權利金方面，有兩個與Arm AGI CPU無關的向量。第一個是Arm市占率提升，我之前提過。我們認為到今年年底會達到60%。這個市占提升同時來自出貨量增加，以及代理式AI（agentic AI）推動Graviton、Cobalt、Axion等設計案啟動（design starts）增加。此外，我們也看到用於連接加速器的head node CPU，正從x86轉向Arm。我們已經知道Vera Rubin，而Google也已宣布把連接TPU Version 8的部分，從x86轉為Axion。

So to Jason's point, this is why we have a high degree of confidence on data center royalties growing triple digits over the next number of years.

所以呼應Jason的觀點，這就是為什麼我們對未來數年資料中心權利金將以三位數成長，抱持高度信心。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Sebastien Naji, William Blair.

(接線員指示) Sebastien Naji，William Blair。

Good afternoon, and thanks for taking the question. I want to ask about how Arm wins versus x86 in the AI data center. At OCP, you introduced agentic AI benchmarks that showed your AGI CPU can deliver twice the performance per rack versus a competing x86 solution. But then last night on its earnings call, AMD said that its Venice CPU offers the best performance per watt. So maybe, Rene, could you talk about where you see the most meaningful opportunity for the Arm CPU to win in the data center versus x86?

下午好，謝謝讓我提問。我想問Arm在AI資料中心相對x86的勝出方式。在OCP上，你們推出了代理式AI基準測試，顯示你們的AGI CPU相較競爭的x86方案，每機櫃可提供兩倍效能。但昨晚在財報電話會議上，AMD表示其Venice CPU提供最佳的每瓦效能。所以也許Rene，你能談談你認為Arm CPU在資料中心相對x86，最有意義的勝出機會在哪裡嗎？

Yeah, sure. I'll take the question from two angles. One is looking at it in the eyes of a Amazon or a Google or Microsoft who are building custom CPUs for their own implementations and their own racks and their own systems.

好的，當然。我會從兩個角度來回答。第一個角度，是站在Amazon、Google或Microsoft這些為自身部署、機櫃與系統打造客製CPU的客戶視角來看。

In those designs, particularly when an end customer is designing an SoC, the degree and flexibility that they have to innovate around their own system is extremely high. Trade-offs that they can make in terms of what goes inside the SoC for data movement versus what takes place inside of DPU, which is what takes place inside of storage.

在這些設計中，特別是當終端客戶在設計SoC時，他們圍繞自身系統進行創新的自由度與彈性非常高。他們可以在SoC內部用於資料搬移的功能，與在DPU內部、以及在儲存系統內部發生的功能之間做取捨。

At that level, you almost have to look at it in terms of performance per rack versus the chip basis. But at a chip level, Arm not only gives them the most efficient core on the planet, but allows them to design the most efficient SoC and subsequently the ultimate system. And we've seen that just in terms of how quickly these customers have been converting designs away from standard x86 to Arm.

在那個層級，你幾乎必須用「每機櫃效能」而不是以單顆晶片為基礎來看。但在晶片層級，Arm不僅提供全球最有效率的核心，也讓他們能設計出最高效率的SoC，進而打造最終的系統。我們也看到，這些客戶把設計從標準x86快速轉向Arm。

Now, the Arm AGI CPU benchmark that we ran that was done through Signal65 at OCP was looking at the previous generation to Venice, and we are very confident in those numbers, and we're very confident in terms of the choices that customers make vis-à-vis head-to-head against that design.

另外，我們在OCP上透過Signal65所做的Arm AGI CPU基準測試，是針對Venice的前一代產品進行比較；我們對那些數據非常有信心，也對客戶在與該設計正面比較時所做的選擇非常有信心。

Venice is a great product, but we're very confident in terms of the demand we have for our product, Arm AGI CPU and the road map going forward.

Venice是一個很棒的產品，但我們對自家產品Arm AGI CPU的需求，以及未來的產品路線圖，都非常有信心。

But I would say two vectors to look at it. One is just efficiency, cost per performance per dollar, performance per watt with AGI CPU. And then on the custom level, there are just simply things that end customers can do that a standard product is never going to be able to touch, and that's kind of the beauty of the Arm business model.

不過我會說，可以從兩個向量來看。第一是效率：每美元的效能成本（cost per performance per dollar）、以及AGI CPU的每瓦效能（performance per watt）。

Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

Krish Sankar，TD Cowen。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Running on Jason, at OCP, you introduced your AGI CPU reference server design. I'm just wondering, are you working with ODMs or server manufacturers? Are you targeting the enterprise private cloud?

嗨，謝謝讓我提問。接續Jason的話題，在OCP上你們介紹了AGI CPU參考伺服器設計。我想請問，你們是否正在與ODM或伺服器製造商合作？你們的目標是企業私有雲嗎？

And along the same path on FY31, $15 billion in AGI CPU revenues, which is the biggest factor? Is it core count increase or is it ASP increasing from the current Gen Version 1? Thank you.

另外同一條脈絡，關於FY31的AGI CPU營收150億美元，最大的驅動因素是什麼？是核心數增加，還是相較目前第一代版本（Gen Version 1）的ASP上升？謝謝。

Yeah, no, thank you for the question. When I think about the partners that we're working with, it's Supermicro, Lenovo, and ASRock, they are building the racks for us and then are basically standing those up for deployment at data centers such as OCI. So they're the partners that we build with.

好的，謝謝你的問題。談到我們合作的夥伴，包括Supermicro、Lenovo和ASRock；他們在為我們建置機櫃，然後基本上會把這些機櫃架設好，部署到像OCI這樣的資料中心。因此，他們就是我們共同合作建置的夥伴。

As far as the revenue outlook and Jason can speak to the specifics of where we think and when we think those members are going to land, there is clearly going to be an acceleration of number of cores inside these SoCs, and that is largely driven by agentic workloads.

至於營收展望，Jason可以談更具體的細節，包括我們認為以及我們預期這些數字會在何時落地；很明顯地，這些SoC內的核心數將會加速增加，而這主要是由代理式工作負載（agentic workloads）所驅動。

And specifically, the fact that each one of these agents, say a Muse agent that's running a specific job, typically runs as a virtual machine on one CPU core. The software is rather complex to manage that across a single core or multiple cores, if you will. So if you can run that on a single core, it's a better thing.

更具體來說，這是因為每一個代理（agent），例如執行特定工作的Muse agent，通常會以虛擬機的形式在一個CPU核心上運行。要在單一核心或多核心之間管理這些軟體其實相當複雜。因此，如果能在單一核心上運行，會是更好的做法。

So do I see CPUs going from 128 cores to 256 cores to 500-plus cores? Absolutely. You can imagine that the average selling price of the chips with more cores will be higher, certainly. But I think what we will see is probably a more rapid acceleration to that, which will help grow the top line.

那麼我是否看到 CPU 會從 128 核心走到 256 核心、再到 500 核心以上？絕對會。你可以想像，核心數更多的晶片其平均銷售價格（ASP）當然會更高。但我認為我們將看到的是，可能會更快速地加速往那個方向發展，這將有助於推升營收（top line）的成長。

And Jason, do you want to add on to that numbers-wise?

Jason，你想就數字方面補充一下嗎？

Yeah. No, I mean, we said back at our Arm Everywhere event last March that we had the line of sight to $1 billion for the end of '27 and fiscal '28. And of course, now we're increasing our confidence to deliver $2 billion.

是的。沒有，我是說，我們在去年三月的 Arm Everywhere 活動上就提到，我們有清楚的能見度在 27 年底與 28 財年達到 10 億美元。當然，現在我們把達成 20 億美元的信心提高了。

And then the following year, we haven't made any updates, but I think the original plan was that we were going to get to about $2 billion a year after that, and then we're going to go up to about $5 billion a year after that. And so to the extent that we're successful in delivering over two, you should expect that we'll probably have some upsides after that. That's something that we'll plan on providing in terms of updated possible targets when we have the next Arm Everywhere event, we're still working on timing, but likely probably in, say, spring or first half of next year is probably when we'll provide that update.

至於再下一年，我們沒有做任何更新，但我認為原本的計畫是，我們會在那之後一年左右達到每年約 20 億美元，然後再之後一年提升到每年約 50 億美元。因此，只要我們成功交付超過 20 億，你應該可以預期之後可能還會有上行空間。我們計畫在下一次 Arm Everywhere 活動時，提供更新後的可能目標；時間點我們仍在安排，但很可能是在明年春季或明年上半年左右提供該更新。

Yeah, I think what we can say is when we did the Arm Everywhere Day in March, the conventional wisdom was the market was a $60 billion market and wasn't going to be growing all that much.

是的，我想我們可以說的是，當我們在三月舉辦 Arm Everywhere Day 時，市場的普遍看法是這是一個 600 億美元的市場，而且不會成長太多。

When we did our calculations, we felt differently. And we talked about a number that day of $100 billion by 2030. I think that number has been increased by various folks. I think Lisa may have even said $200 billion or more. I think that's about right and maybe even could be under calling it, who knows?

但當我們做了自己的計算，我們的看法不同。那天我們談到 2030 年達到 1,000 億美元的數字。我認為這個數字已被各方上調。我想 Lisa 甚至可能說過 2,000 億美元或更多。我覺得那大致是對的，甚至可能還算保守，誰知道呢？

What is obvious is that the agentic demands on AI jobs are CPU-bound, and the more agentic workloads that run, that's going to need more CPUs. So I think that's what's going to end up driving these higher core count devices, which I think will be very good for us, because what's going to matter there is performance per watt at the core level, having the most efficient core on the planet, which is what we're very good at.

顯而易見的是，AI 工作中的代理式（agentic）需求是受 CPU 限制（CPU-bound）的；而代理式工作負載跑得越多，就需要越多 CPU。因此我認為，這將最終推動這些更高核心數的裝置。我認為這對我們會非常有利，因為那裡真正重要的是核心層級的每瓦效能（performance per watt），也就是擁有地表最有效率的核心，而這正是我們非常擅長的。

Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna.

Mehdi Hosseini，Susquehanna。

Yes, sir. Two follow-ups. Going back to the new updated AGI silicon revenue target of $2 billion, should we assume any revenue contribution in September or December quarter of this year, FY27?

是的，先生。兩個追問。回到最新更新的 AGI 晶片營收目標 20 億美元，我們是否應假設在今年 FY27 的 9 月或 12 月季度會有任何營收貢獻？

Assume that our shipments will start in Q4. If we have something in Q3, we'll let you know it wouldn't be a lot. We're really talking Q4.

請假設我們的出貨會從 Q4 開始。如果 Q3 有任何進展，我們會告訴你，但不會很多。

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. Would it be fair to say that data center mix of the royalty revenue is tracking to a third or a 30% to 35%, and for next fiscal year, FY28, it could go up towards mid-40%?

好的。然後再快速追問一下。是否可以這麼說：權利金收入中資料中心的占比正朝著三分之一、或 30% 到 35% 的方向走，而在下一個會計年度 FY28，可能會上升到 40% 中段？

I'm sorry. Are you asking what total royalties, percentage of total royalties that are data center? Is that the question?

不好意思。你是在問資料中心占總權利金的比例是多少嗎？問題是這個嗎？

Yeah. Yes. Would it be fair to assume that it's tracking to a third in FY27 and it would step up again in '28, moving towards 45%?

對。是的。是否可以合理假設 FY27 會朝三分之一的方向走，而在 '28 年會再往上一步，朝 45% 靠近？

Yeah, I don't, yeah, I mean, we look at them independently, so I would assume that royalties for edge are going to be pretty flattish this quarter, and I think we said we'll start to see some recovery in Q4, but if you have that in the kind of high-single digits and then you have.

是的，我不——是的，我的意思是，我們是分開看待它們的，所以我會假設邊緣端（edge）的權利金這一季會相對持平，而我想我們也說過會在 Q4 開始看到一些復甦；但如果你把那部分放在高個位數成長，然後你再加上——

Data center growing at double digits. I think we said last year we were kind of approaching 20%-ish of total royalties. And then you have physical AI growing somewhere probably in the somewhere between 20%, 30%-ish range, then that's how you should build your model.

資料中心以雙位數成長。我想我們去年說過，資料中心的權利金占總權利金大概正接近 20% 左右。再加上實體 AI（physical AI）大概在 20% 到 30% 左右的成長區間，那你就可以用這樣的假設來建立你的模型。

I haven't done the math to look at the percentage. I don't think data center will get quite to a third, but it will sometime soon. I just don't know if it's going to get there by the end of this year.

我還沒有去算那個百分比。我不認為資料中心會到三分之一那麼快，但不久之後會到。我只是不確定在今年年底之前是否能到那個水準。

Simon Leopold, Raymond James.

Simon Leopold，Raymond James。

Thank you very much. Appreciate you taking the question. I wanted to ask about the -- basically the cloud and AI group of products and how you might frame the customer concentration there to help us give us a better appreciation. For example, could we guess that maybe 60% of these royalties are coming from three customers? Any kind of quantification would be helpful to understand that. Thank you.

非常感謝。感謝你們回答問題。我想問的是——基本上關於雲端與 AI 這一組產品，你們會如何描述那裡的客戶集中度，以幫助我們更好地理解。例如，我們是否可以推測也許 60% 的這些權利金來自三個客戶？任何形式的量化都會有助於理解。謝謝。

I think we can say, and Jason, chime in on this thing. Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are the largest contributors, and then you've now got NVIDIA ramping up quickly. They are the four guys inside the data center that command the majority of the royalties.

我想我們可以說——Jason 也請補充——Amazon、Google 和 Microsoft 是最大的貢獻者，然後現在 NVIDIA 也在快速放量。他們是資料中心裡的四個主要玩家，掌握了大部分的權利金。

Harlan Sur, JP Morgan.

Harlan Sur，JP Morgan。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. With the strong success of your first-generation AGI CPU, I'm sure your customers are already looking towards your next-generation platform. Can you just give us an update on second-gen AGI? I think the plan was for the team to tape out either end of this year, beginning of next year for ramping calendar '28.

午安。謝謝讓我提問。你們第一代 AGI CPU 取得強勁成功，我相信客戶已經在看你們的下一代平台。能否請你們更新一下第二代 AGI 的進度？我記得計畫是團隊會在今年底或明年初進行流片（tape out），以便在 2028 年曆年放量。

And then maybe just as importantly, as you continue to add more capabilities to your compute silicon portfolio, does it actually make sense to add more networking and high-performance I/O capabilities as well? More and more, we're seeing that compute and networking are very closely coupled to determine very good systems performance. So is the team going to add more networking and capabilities to the portfolio?

另外也同樣重要的是，隨著你們持續在運算晶片產品組合中加入更多能力，是否也合理加入更多網路與高效能 I/O 能力？我們越來越看到運算與網路緊密耦合，才能決定系統的整體效能。所以團隊是否會在產品組合中加入更多網路與相關能力？

Thank you, Harlan. Those are great questions. Without disclosing the precise schedule on the follow-on chip, you can think about this market goes at about an 18- to 24-month cadence in terms of production ramps. So as we are ramping into production now on the first one, you can kind of do the math and when the second one would be available.

謝謝你，Harlan。這些問題都很棒。在不揭露後續晶片精確時程的前提下，你可以把這個市場的量產放量節奏想成大約每 18 到 24 個月一個週期。因此，當我們現在正把第一代推向量產放量時，你大概可以自己推算第二代何時會可用。

Regarding other things that you can add to the toolbox to improve performance, whether that's around connectivity, broadly speaking, whether that's around specific I/O and/or networking and/or other aspects of the system, we are absolutely looking at all of that.

至於你提到為了提升效能、可以加入工具箱的其他項目，不論是更廣義的連結性（connectivity），或是特定的 I/O 和／或網路，以及系統的其他面向，我們確實都在全面評估。

When we think about developing these products, we're thinking about rack system performance. The chip, the CPU is a big part of it, but how you move data in and out of the system, to your question, is as large an area as any, and we have a lot of activity underway in all these areas. Nothing that we can announce here on this call, but completely cognizant of that being an area that we could have even larger differentiation.

當我們思考開發這些產品時，我們思考的是機櫃（rack）系統層級的效能。晶片、CPU 是其中很大的一部分，但如你所問，資料如何進出系統同樣是非常大的領域；我們在這些方向都有大量工作正在進行。目前在這通電話上沒有任何可以宣布的內容，但我們完全意識到那會是我們能做出更大差異化的領域。

Lee Simpson, Morgan Stanley.

Lee Simpson，摩根士丹利。

Great. Thanks for squeezing me in. Maybe just two quick ones, if I could. Maybe the first one for Jason, $773 million for licensing really stands out. Congratulations to everyone there. You did talk about total access, you did talk about CSS deals, particularly smartphones and I think data center you mentioned. But do we have any sort of architecture license agreements in there and could we look at $770 million-plus as a new level, a structural level?

很好。謝謝你把我塞進來。如果可以的話，可能就兩個簡短的問題。第一個可能問 Jason，授權收入 7.73 億美元真的很突出。恭喜各位。你們談到 total access，也談到 CSS 交易，特別是智慧型手機，以及我記得你提到資料中心。但這裡面是否有任何架構授權協議？我們是否可以把 7.70 億美元以上視為一個新的水準、結構性的水準？

And maybe for follow on for Rene, maybe in line with some of the earlier questions, it's interesting that as we look to higher ASP CPUs in the future with higher core count, could it be that we see a higher per core dollar equivalence in that pricing? In other words, playing off this capability that are associated capabilities, perhaps networking and I/O as mentioned in the last question, that drives that per core dollar value up. Thanks.

另外，接續問 Rene，可能呼應前面的一些問題：有趣的是，當我們展望未來更高 ASP、核心數更高的 CPU 時，是否可能在定價上看到更高的「每核心美元等值」？換句話說，利用這些能力以及相關能力（例如上一題提到的網路與 I/O），推升每核心的美元價值。謝謝。

Okay, thanks, Lee. On your first question around license. Yeah, we talk about ATA and CSS, which is the vast majority of everything that we're selling going forward. Architecture licenses are very, very few and far between. And so I would think of it as really being ATA and CSS. That is the bulk of most everything we're selling going forward.

好的，謝謝你，Lee。關於你第一個有關授權的問題。是的，我們談到 ATA 和 CSS，這是我們未來銷售的絕大多數。架構授權非常、非常少見。所以我會把它視為主要就是 ATA 和 CSS。這是我們未來銷售的大宗。

In terms of absolute magnitude of dollars, yes, $773 million was a great quarter, but if you, I think, kind of work out the details, I said it was going to be increasing and going up from there in this next quarter and even in Q4, it's going to step up again. So we're not, maybe we talked about next year, whether or not that's the new number every quarter. I don't know if I would say that, but I will say the pipeline has been surprisingly strong, stronger than we expected when we started the year.

就美元絕對金額而言，是的，7.73 億美元是很棒的一季；但如果你把細節大致算一算，我說過它在下一季會持續增加、往上走，甚至到第四季還會再上台階。所以我們也許談到明年，是否每一季都會是這個新數字。我不確定我會這麼說，但我會說，管線出乎意料地強勁，比我們年初預期的還強。

And a little bit like the last couple of years where we've had -- maybe deals that weren't initially, they were in the pipeline, but they weren't they were not renewals. They were these were incremental and new deals that are kind of hard to forecast. We're in that same situation again.

而且有點像過去幾年，我們曾有——也許一些交易一開始並不是……它們在管線裡，但它們不是續約。它們是增量的、全新的交易，這類交易通常很難預測。我們現在又處在同樣的情況。

And so what's interesting is when we started this year, we thought it was going to be much more around royalties and that a lot of the license growth related to all the AI investments, we thought maybe we kind of had passed a lot of that.

因此有趣的是，年初我們以為今年會更偏向權利金，而且很多授權成長與各種 AI 投資相關；我們原本以為那一波可能已經大致走過了。

Well, what's interesting is it seems to be that with AI and the consistent variability and now everyone's trying to address all the agentic workloads, we're seeing that the need for additional license and additional products, variations, and different technologies is not slowing down at all. And so that's particularly exciting, and as you know, any license beats, especially with ATAs and CSSs, that will -- is very highly likely to turn into design wins and very likely to turn into even more royalties probably 12, 18 months, 24 months down the road. So that's a really good setup for next year and after, and so -- but we'll have to, I guess, get through the next couple of quarters before I can talk about next year, but the pipelines do look strong.

但有趣的是，看起來隨著 AI 的持續變化與波動，現在大家都在嘗試處理各種 agentic 工作負載，我們看到對額外授權、額外產品、不同變體與不同技術的需求完全沒有放緩。所以這特別令人振奮；而且如你所知，任何授權的超預期表現，尤其是 ATA 與 CSS，將——非常有可能轉化為 design win，也很可能在 12、18、24 個月之後帶來更多權利金。所以這為明年及之後打下很好的基礎；不過——我想在我談明年之前，還得先走過接下來幾個季度，但管線看起來確實很強。

And even with the memory issues that we've seen really kind of making for some tough comps in the mobile business, which really that does end mostly in this quarter that we're now in Q3, we start lapping those headwinds that really started in January, February of next year. So the comps also get easier. But overall, we think it's a really good setup for the balance of this year and likely going into next year as well.

即便我們看到的記憶體問題確實讓行動業務的比較基期變得有些艱難——而這些影響大多會在我們現在所處的第三季結束——我們會開始消化那些逆風；那些逆風其實是從明年一、二月開始的。所以比較基期也會變得更容易。但整體而言，我們認為今年剩餘時間的態勢很好，而且很可能延續到明年。

Yeah. On pricing, it's a tricky one from the perspective of memory pricing has obviously increased a lot since we announced the Arm AGI CPU. Data centers are getting more and more complicated to build, whether it's through just, again, memory pricing/finding laborers, et cetera. So while we want to be cognizant of not pushing the pricing piece too hard given all these other factors, I think it is fair to say that there's probably some pricing elasticity that we could potentially exercise on these larger chips and the chips that have higher core counts.

是的。就定價而言，從記憶體價格的角度來看這題很棘手；自從我們宣布 Arm AGI CPU 以來，記憶體價格顯然上漲了很多。資料中心的建置也變得越來越複雜，不論是單純因為——再說一次——記憶體價格/尋找勞工等等。因此，雖然考量到這些其他因素，我們希望注意不要在定價這一塊推得太用力，但我認為可以合理地說，對於這些更大的晶片、以及核心數更高的晶片，我們可能有一些可運用的定價彈性。

We'll look at all of it, obviously, but I think it's fair to say that there probably is some headroom there.

我們當然會全面評估，但我認為可以合理地說，那裡大概還有一些空間。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

Vivek Arya，美國銀行證券。

Thanks for taking my question, one for each. Jason, let's say smartphone units are down again double digit next year. Do you think royalties will kind of be similarly profiled to what we saw this year or are there other dynamics at play?

謝謝讓我提問，我各問一題。Jason，假設明年智慧型手機出貨量又再度呈現兩位數下滑。你認為權利金的走勢會大致類似我們今年看到的樣貌嗎？還是有其他動態因素在作用？

And then Rene, on the AGI platform, let's assume we believe in the technical merits. My question is, does Arm have the scale in the ecosystem to secure supply? Because for example, yesterday, when AMD reported they raised their server CPU business by several billions of dollars, so that tells me that they have the scale to go and get incremental supply, right? So how are you dealing with that question about does Arm have enough scale to go and get the supply to be a meaningful player in the CPU markets, given your belief in the technical merits of the product?

然後 Rene，關於 AGI 平台，假設我們相信其技術優勢。我的問題是，Arm 在生態系中是否具備足夠規模來確保供應？例如，昨天 AMD 公布財報時把他們的伺服器 CPU 業務上調了數十億美元，這讓我覺得他們有規模去取得額外供應，對吧？所以在你們相信產品技術優勢的前提下，你們如何應對「Arm 是否有足夠規模去取得供應、從而在 CPU 市場成為有意義的玩家」這個問題？

Yeah, thank you, Vivek. I'll start, take your second part of your question first, and then Jason will talk about the smartphone scenario that you had described.

是的，謝謝你，Vivek。我先從你問題的第二部分開始回答，然後 Jason 會談你描述的智慧型手機情境。

Your question is a valid one. The way I think about it is that the Arm AGI CPU is our first product. AMD has been at it for a long time. They've got a lot of SKUs. They buy a lot of capacity from TSMC. They have a lot of relationships that they've built over decades. This is our first product.

你的問題很合理。我的看法是，Arm AGI CPU 是我們的第一個產品。AMD 已經做了很久。他們有很多 SKU，向台積電購買了大量產能，也建立了數十年的關係。這是我們的第一個產品。

That said, it's not our first relationship with folks like TSMC. It's not our first relationship with memory vendors such as Micron, Samsung, and SK. They've known us for years and decades, and we've been working pretty diligently to share with them our long-term plans.

話雖如此，這並不是我們第一次與台積電這類夥伴合作。也不是我們第一次與美光、三星、SK 等記憶體供應商合作。他們認識我們已經很多年、甚至數十年，而我們也一直相當努力地與他們分享我們的長期規劃。

I think supply for the industry is going to be tight. And as Jason mentioned, we'll talk a bit more about our future outlook in upcoming quarters. But we are going to be working very, very hard to secure the supply that we need for the expanded demand because we think it's very large and our partners know that and we've been talking to them not for weeks, not for months, probably a year plus as we've talked about doing this platform.

我認為整個產業的供應會很吃緊。而如同 Jason 提到的，我們會在接下來幾個季度更深入談我們對未來的展望。但我們會非常、非常努力去確保擴大需求所需要的供應，因為我們認為需求非常龐大；我們的合作夥伴也知道這點，而且我們與他們討論這個平台不是幾週、不是幾個月，而是可能一年以上。

So we've looked at this as a long-term endeavor. It's not a one-year single project, it's a 5- to 10-year endeavor that's going to require relationships across all the supply chain, and we're very, very serious about making sure we get all that done.

所以我們把這視為一項長期事業。這不是一個一年期的單一專案，而是一個 5 到 10 年的投入，將需要橫跨整個供應鏈的關係；我們非常、非常認真地確保把這些都做到位。

Thanks, Vivek. So regarding the mobile business, when we look at some of the external forecast, I think IDC has units in mobile growing basically flat, I think it's minus 1% next year. As we talk to partners, that's -- I'd say flat is generally what folks are expecting. There's already been kind of the hit and the reduction due to the memory constraints, I think the expectations are those constraints stay relatively consistent, which basically means flat growth, not further deterioration.

謝謝你，Vivek。關於行動業務，當我們看一些外部預測時，我認為 IDC 對行動裝置出貨量的預估基本上是持平，我記得明年是 -1%。我們與合作夥伴交流時，我會說大家普遍預期就是持平。由於記憶體限制，相關衝擊與下修其實已經發生了；目前的預期是這些限制會大致維持一致，這基本上意味著持平成長，而不是進一步惡化。

And then because we continue to have more Armv9 adoption, we're now getting over 50%, so it's a little less of a tail end, but CSS adoption continues to grow.

另外，因為我們持續看到更多 Armv9 的採用率，目前已經超過 50%，所以尾端效應小了一些，但 CSS 的採用仍在持續成長。

We also have multiple partners on next generations of CSS, which are at slightly higher royalty rates and higher chip prices. So all of that means that we will grow the overall business much faster than the market. So I think it would at least being in the kind of double digits plus in growth rate for next year. That's our best guess right now. If we see anything that changes, of course, we'll let you guys know. But that's what industry as well as our partners all seem to think at this point.

我們也有多家合作夥伴正在導入下一代 CSS，其權利金費率略高、晶片價格也更高。因此，這些因素意味著我們整體業務的成長速度將遠快於市場。所以我認為明年的成長率至少會是雙位數以上。這是我們目前最好的估計。如果我們看到任何變化，當然會讓各位知道。但就目前來看，無論是產業端或我們的合作夥伴，似乎都這麼認為。

Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

Joe Quatrochi，富國銀行。

Yeah, thanks for taking the question. You talked about securing more supply on AGI, and I assume that comes at a higher cost. So can you just kind of talk us through the ability to offset that and how we should think about this gross margin puts and takes as you start to ship?

是的，謝謝讓我提問。你提到為 AGI 取得更多供應，我假設這會帶來更高的成本。所以你能否帶我們梳理一下你們抵消這些成本的能力，以及當你們開始出貨時，我們應該如何看待毛利率的增減因素？

Yeah, I'm sorry. Could you repeat that one more time?

好的，不好意思。你可以再重複一次嗎？

Yeah, just I assume that the increased supply that you're getting for AGI is coming at a higher cost. So can you just talk about your ability to offset those higher costs, pass that through to customers in terms of pricing, and then the puts and takes on gross margin?

好的，我只是想說，我假設你們為 AGI 取得的額外供應是以更高成本取得的。所以你能否談談你們抵消這些較高成本的能力、是否能在定價上轉嫁給客戶，以及毛利率的增減因素？

Yeah, no, thank you. As I mentioned earlier, the overall cost of the systems, memory being probably the single largest contributor to all that, and then you've got kind of downstream, other impacts to your point on different parts of supply chain definitely put margin pressure.

好的，沒有問題，謝謝。如我先前提到，整體系統成本中，記憶體可能是單一最大的貢獻來源；此外，正如你所說，供應鏈不同環節的下游影響，確實會對毛利率造成壓力。

That being said, we do have some elasticity on pricing and the ability to increase it, which I think we've already demonstrated an ability to do that as we've gotten started with the program.

不過，我們在定價上確實有一定彈性，也有能力提高價格；我認為在我們啟動這個計畫的過程中，已經證明了我們具備這樣的能力。

So I'm actually not as worried on that point relative to offsetting any constraints on supply and cost and managing it downstream.

因此，相較於抵消供應與成本限制、以及在下游端的管理，我其實沒有那麼擔心這一點。

You've seen public comments from everybody else who's in this business that that's what we're doing. We'll be following where the market goes and making sure that we're not trailing common sense, but at the same time, not trying to cause too much pain on the end customers.

你也看到同業其他公司公開的評論，大家都在做同樣的事。我們會跟隨市場走向，確保不會違背常識、落後於市場，但同時也不會試圖讓終端客戶承受過多痛苦。

So our first product, we want to make sure everybody wins with it, but I'm not as worried about that piece impacting gross margins.

所以對於我們的第一個產品，我們希望確保每個人都能從中受益；但我不太擔心這一塊會影響毛利率。

Yeah, maybe just to reiterate what we said was for this first version, we're expected to be somewhere on the high-30s to the low-40% gross margin. And for the first version, we expect it to be probably a little lower.

是的，也許再重申一下：對於第一個版本，我們預期毛利率大約會落在高 30% 到低 40% 的區間。而且就第一個版本而言，我們預期可能會略低一些。

And then as we develop more expertise, probably rely on doing a little more work ourselves and maybe less from partners over time, which others in the market do over time, we'll get ourselves to more of the market standard of 50%-plus, but I don't expect that to happen on the first version. That's probably going to happen more on the next version. So for this version, I would stick to the kind of 30% to 40% range, and then we'll obviously give you updates on a quarterly basis as we start shipping in Q4.

接著，隨著我們累積更多專業能力，可能會逐步更多依靠自己完成一些工作、並隨時間推進而減少對合作夥伴的依賴——市場上的其他公司也會隨時間這麼做——我們會把毛利率提升到更接近市場標準的 50% 以上，但我不預期第一個版本就能達到。那大概會在下一個版本才會發生。因此，就這個版本而言，我會建議先以約 30% 到 40% 的區間來看；當我們在第四季開始出貨後，也會按季提供最新進展。

Thank you. That was our final question for today. I will now hand the call back to Rene for closing remarks.

謝謝。以上是我們今天的最後一個問題。我現在把電話交回給 Rene 作結語。

Thank you, and thank you for all the questions. They were very, very timely and excellent questions.

謝謝，也謝謝大家提出的所有問題。這些問題都非常切中時機，而且非常精彩。

Just to summarize, this was a great quarter for the company, 50% licensing growth means a lot of growth coming in the future in royalties which we feel great about. We also feel very, very good about the fact that our data center business continues to flourish.

簡單總結一下：這對公司而言是一個很棒的季度，授權收入成長 50% 意味著未來權利金將有大量成長，我們對此感到非常振奮。我們也對資料中心業務持續蓬勃發展感到非常、非常有信心。

We had talked for many years about Arm getting to 20% in data centers. The fact that we are 50% in the last year and will be 60% by the end of this year is also something we're very proud of.

多年來我們一直在談 Arm 在資料中心達到 20% 的市占。而我們在過去一年已達到 50%，並且在今年年底將達到 60%，這也是我們非常自豪的一件事。

But most importantly, I think what we're now starting to see is what was one great business is now turning into two great businesses. The IP business continues to do very well. We're very confident in this growth going forward.

但最重要的是，我認為我們現在開始看到的是：原本一個很棒的業務，正在轉變成兩個很棒的業務。IP 業務持續表現非常好。我們對未來的成長非常有信心。

But now with our new AGI CPU ramping into production, increased confidence to achieve the $2 billion number that we've been talking about, it just thrills me to be able to talk about two businesses now rather than one that are both going to be on amazing growth paths and could not be prouder of what the company has achieved thanking our employees, our partners, and customers who helped make it happen.

而且，隨著我們新的 AGI CPU 逐步量產爬坡，我們對達成一直在談的 20 億美元目標更有信心；能夠談論兩個業務而不是一個，而且兩者都將走在驚人的成長軌道上，讓我非常振奮。我也為公司所取得的成就感到無比自豪，並感謝我們的員工、合作夥伴與客戶，正是你們的協助讓這一切得以實現。

So thank you again for all the questions and comments, and congratulations to the Arm team for a great quarter.

再次感謝大家的提問與意見，也恭喜 Arm 團隊交出一個很棒的季度成績。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。各位現在可以掛線。