使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's second quarter 2026 Q&A webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Vaibhav Taneja and a number of other executives. Our Q2 results were announced at about 3:00 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.
各位下午好,歡迎收看特斯拉 2026 年第二季 Q&A 網路直播。我是投資人關係主管 Travis Axelrod,今天與我一同出席的有 Elon Musk、Vaibhav Taneja 以及多位其他主管。我們的第二季業績已於中部時間下午 3:00 左右在我們於本次直播相同連結發布的更新簡報中公布。
During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions) Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.
在本次電話會議中,我們將討論業務展望並發表前瞻性陳述。這些評論係基於我們截至今日的預測與預期。由於多項風險與不確定性(包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交文件中所提及者),實際事件或結果可能與之有重大差異。(接線員指示)在進入問答之前,Elon 先做一些開場說明。
Elon?
Elon?
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Thank you. So yes, it's been a great quarter. We achieved record Q2 deliveries. Model Y, I believe it is now, I think it's the best-selling car of any kind in the world and is setting records across the board. So its popularity is increasing tremendously.
謝謝。是的,這是一個非常棒的季度。我們創下第二季交付量新高。我相信 Model Y 現在——我想它已經是全球各類型車款中最暢銷的車,並且在各方面都在刷新紀錄。因此它的受歡迎程度正在大幅提升。
And we're seeing in locations that have FSD approved, we're seeing a very high take rate of FSD. And in fact, I think, for a lot of people, they're actually buying Tesla full self-driving with a car attached as opposed to a car with FSD. They're coming into our stores in the US and they want the full self-driving and with whatever car comes with essentially. So clearly, the -- this is a significant demand driver. And as we get approval for FSD in different part -- different countries, I think we'll see a similar uptick in demand. So yeah, it's looking very good on that front.
而且我們看到在已核准 FSD 的地區,FSD 的採用率非常高。事實上,我認為對很多人而言,他們買的是「特斯拉全自動駕駛」,只是順便附帶一台車,而不是「一台車加上 FSD」。他們走進我們在美國的門市,想要的是全自動駕駛,至於搭配哪一款車基本上都可以。所以很明顯——這是一個重要的需求驅動因素。而當我們在不同地區——不同國家取得 FSD 核准時,我認為也會看到類似的需求上升。所以,是的,這方面看起來非常好。
The energy business is also growing incredibly fast, and I think it will be crucial for the scale-up of artificial intelligence, data centers. We're investing a lot in growing the core business and really preparing for the future. So this is a massive CapEx year, but I'm confident that all the things that we're investing in are -- will yield incredible returns, really the best CapEx returns that we've ever seen. And the Tesla team has performed incredibly well. The Cybercab has started production, and we also have started production and are ramping in -- we will soon start production with Optimus.
能源業務也在以驚人的速度成長,我認為它對於人工智慧與資料中心的規模化將至關重要。我們正在大力投資以擴大核心業務,並真正為未來做好準備。因此今年是資本支出(CapEx)非常龐大的一年,但我有信心我們所投資的所有事項——都將帶來驚人的回報,確實會是我們迄今見過最好的資本支出回報。特斯拉團隊的表現也非常出色。Cybercab 已開始量產,我們也已開始生產,並正在爬坡——我們很快也將開始 Optimus 的量產。
We have started production with the Tesla semi-truck. We will soon start production with Megapack 3. We started production with the lithium refinery, the cathode refinery. We obviously have -- we're scaling up battery cell production battery cell production. And we're also preparing to do a massive solar panel like solar cells and panel production.
我們已開始生產特斯拉半掛卡車(Semi)。我們很快將開始 Megapack 3 的量產。我們已開始生產鋰精煉廠、正極材料精煉廠。顯然我們——正在擴大電池電芯產能,電池電芯產能。我們也在準備進行大規模的太陽能板——也就是太陽能電池與面板的生產。
Actually, this is going all the way from silicon refinement to producing the solar cell and then deployment of solar because there's going to be tremendous need for electricity in the future due to electrification of transport and AI, obviously.
實際上,這涵蓋從矽的精煉一路到太陽能電池的製造,然後再到太陽能的部署,因為未來由於交通運輸電氣化以及 AI 的發展,對電力的需求將會非常龐大,這點很明顯。
So we're working on what we believe is the most ambitious build-out of advanced infrastructure manufacturing capacity ever in history. It's bigger. So with Robotaxi, our goals are very ambitious for Robotaxi, but we do need to be cautious about causing any accidents or causing any harm to anyone. Although there are, I think, 30,000 to 40,000 automotive deaths per year in the United States alone, most of those do not generate any press or -- you never really read about almost any of those.
因此,我們正在推進我們認為是史上最具雄心的先進基礎設施製造產能擴建。它更大。所以在 Robotaxi 方面,我們的目標非常宏大,但我們確實需要謹慎,避免造成任何事故或對任何人造成傷害。儘管僅在美國,每年我想就有 30,000 到 40,000 起汽車死亡事故,其中大多數都不會引起任何媒體報導——你幾乎不會讀到其中任何一件。
But if we injure even one person, it will be worldwide headline news. And regulators will immediately clamp down on our activities. So -- and we don't want to injure anyone. So we're going as fast as humanly possible in scaling Robotaxi with while trying to ensure that we do not harm anyone at all and ideally do not even run over a pet. So that's really the constraint is we're -- we want to grow as fast as possible with Robotaxi without harm to anyone.
但如果我們哪怕傷到一個人,都會成為全球頭條新聞。監管機構也會立刻收緊對我們活動的限制。而且——我們也不想傷害任何人。因此我們會以人類所能做到的最快速度擴大 Robotaxi,同時努力確保完全不傷害任何人,理想情況下甚至不要撞到寵物。所以真正的限制在於——我們希望 Robotaxi 以最快速度成長,但不能對任何人造成傷害。
And we're providing live updates for Robotaxi launch as we open up in a city. We immediately post that on X. So if you just follow the Tesla account on X, but we'll keep you informed as we scale to new cities. We've opened up a number of cities in Florida and in Texas and obviously in the Bay Area. So we'll continue to scale, I think, very, very rapidly on -- with it looks like more than 10% a week in terms of miles driven. So it's a very high compound growth rate.
而且當我們在某個城市開放 Robotaxi 服務時,我們會提供即時更新。我們會立刻在 X 上發布。所以只要你追蹤 X 上的 Tesla 帳號,我們會在擴展到新城市時持續向你更新。我們已在佛羅里達州與德州開放了多個城市,當然也包括灣區。因此我們會持續擴張,我認為會非常、非常快速——看起來以行駛里程計算,每週增幅超過 10%。所以這是一個非常高的複利成長率。
So let's see, Optimus, as you've heard me say before, I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever, but it is a very complex problem to solve. It's one of the hardest things to solve to make an autonomous humanoid robot that can do tasks that if you simply ask it to do something or show a video, it can do the task without any programming.
再來,Optimus,如同你們之前聽我說過的,我認為 Optimus 會是史上最大的產品,但它是一個非常複雜的問題要解決。要打造一個能自主運作的人形機器人,能完成任務——你只要請它做某件事或給它看一段影片,它就能在不需要任何程式設計的情況下完成任務——這是最難解的事情之一。
Like no one's ever achieved this. And you've got -- there are many challenges in the electromechanical design of the robot to achieve sufficient dexterity and rely it to be very reliable and have a long wear and tear, like meaning it needs to be out in the field and not break down. Otherwise, you've got sort of a 70-kilogram robot that just flopped over and you got to carry it out like a body. It's our wheels. And we don't want Optimus to go haywire.
從來沒有人做到過這件事。而且你會遇到——在機電設計上有許多挑戰,要達到足夠的靈巧度,並讓它非常可靠、具備長期耐磨耗能力,也就是它需要在現場運作而不會故障。否則你就會有一個大約 70 公斤的機器人直接癱倒在地,你得像搬運一具身體一樣把它抬走。這會拖累我們。而我們也不希望 Optimus 失控。
So it's a lot of work to scale -- to get the design right and to scale production. And I really want to emphasize here that the production scaling challenge is very substantial. This is going to be the hardest product to scale manufacturing that we've ever made at Tesla because everything on the robot is new.
因此,要把設計做好並擴大量產——需要大量工作。我也想在此特別強調,量產擴張的挑戰非常巨大。這將會是我們在特斯拉做過最難擴大製造規模的產品,因為機器人上的每一個部件都是新的。
And the difficulty of scaling the production ramp is proportionate to the newness of the parts in the robot. And at least with electric cars, the nonelectric powertrain portions of the cars had an existing supply chain. So you could go to existing suppliers for wheels and side mirrors and windshield glass and that kind of thing, body panels. But with Optimus, there is no supply chain.
而量產爬坡的難度,與機器人零件的新穎程度成正比。至少在電動車方面,車上非電動動力系統的部分原本就有既有供應鏈。所以你可以找現有供應商提供輪胎、後視鏡、擋風玻璃之類的東西,還有車身鈑件。但對 Optimus 而言,根本沒有供應鏈。
So we've had to build up the supply chain in its entirety or in-house the production. And we actually have in-house a tremendous amount. The Optimus production line that we're rolling out in Fremont in place of what used to be the model S & X production looks incredible. I mean it's quite stunning to see.
所以我們必須從零建立完整的供應鏈,或是把生產內製化。而我們實際上有非常多是內製的。我們正在弗里蒙特(Fremont)推出的 Optimus 生產線,取代了過去 Model S 與 Model X 的產線,看起來令人難以置信。我的意思是,親眼看到真的相當震撼。
So I just want to make sure to calibrate people correctly. Optimus will follow the sort of normal S-curve of a manufacturing ramp, but the initial portion of the S-curve will be quite flat and long because of the newness of the parts and the robot.
所以我只是想確保大家的預期校準正確。Optimus 的量產爬坡會遵循一般製造擴張的 S 型曲線,但由於零件與機器人的新穎性,S 型曲線的初期部分會相當平坦且持續較長時間。
So you've probably seen lots of impressive demonstrations of robots on the Internet, but those demonstrations you're seeing are preprogrammed or remote controlled. So there is no humanoid robot that is actually able to do generalized tasks.
所以你可能在網路上看過許多令人印象深刻的機器人展示,但你看到的那些展示是預先編程或遠端操控的。因此,目前並沒有任何人形機器人真正能夠執行通用型任務。
Optimus will be the first one that is capable of doing that, where it's not just a demo, it's genuinely useful in day-to-day life. So -- and Optimus is designed to have full human dexterity. So a hand that has the same level of dexterity, if not higher than a human hand.
Optimus 將會是第一個具備這種能力的機器人;它不只是展示,而是在日常生活中真正有用。所以——而且 Optimus 的設計目標是具備完整的人類靈巧度。也就是一隻手,其靈巧程度與人手相同,甚至高於人手。
And the human hand is an incredible, incredible thing. The more you study the human hand, the more amazing you realize how amazing hands are. It's more than just the opposable thumbs. I mean the nuances of how human hands work are amazing as the closer you look, the more amazed you are. And Optimus will have that capability. You will have human and then super human dexterity. So it's really going to be quite something.
而人類的手是一個不可思議、不可思議的東西。你越研究人手,就越會驚嘆於手到底有多麼驚人。這不只是對掌拇指而已。我是說,人手運作方式的細微之處非常驚人;你看得越仔細,就越覺得震撼。而 Optimus 也將具備那樣的能力。你將同時擁有人類等級,甚至超人等級的靈巧度。所以這真的會非常了不起。
Let's see, Terafab. The Terafab, we expect to announce the location soon and provide sort of more details about our plans in that regard, which we'll leave that to the product sort of the launch announcement rather than try to squeeze it into an earnings call because I think this is a very big announcement and to have its own sort of day in the spotlight and not be sort of squeezed into an earnings call.
我們來看看,Terafab。Terafab 我們預期很快會宣布地點,並提供更多關於我們在這方面計畫的細節;我們會把這留到產品的發布公告,而不是硬塞進財報電話會議,因為我認為這是一個非常重大的公告,應該有自己的一天成為焦點,而不是被擠在財報電話會議裡。
But I do think Terafab is going to be an amazing initiative and a necessary one and one without which we will be constrained in our ability to scale Optimus production because we simply won't have enough AI chips. So it's crucial to solve that, and we'll have to solve memory, logic and packaging for -- in order to scale Optimus. So if anyone likes it, we'll leave that to an announcement.
但我確實認為 Terafab 會是一項很驚人的倡議,也是必要的;如果沒有它,我們擴大 Optimus 產量的能力將會受限,因為我們就是沒有足夠的 AI 晶片。所以解決這個問題至關重要;而且為了擴大 Optimus 的規模,我們還必須解決記憶體、邏輯與封裝等問題。所以如果大家有興趣,我們就留待公告再說。
We've placed equipment orders for our development fab in Austin. And that development fab, I think, is pretty cool because it's intended to have lithography mask production and then logic, memory and packaging and chip testing all under one roof.
我們已經為位於奧斯汀的開發晶圓廠下了設備訂單。而那座開發晶圓廠我覺得相當酷,因為它的目標是在同一棟建築內涵蓋微影光罩製作,以及邏輯、記憶體、封裝與晶片測試。
So you can have a very fast iterative cycle and try out new chip designs very quickly and see if they work. I don't think such a building exists anywhere on earth. So this is really going to be super helpful as we try some exciting adventurous high-risk, high payoff bets on AI chips. But it focused, like I said, on primarily Optimus, like how do we make Optimus as useful as possible.
這樣你就能有非常快速的迭代週期,很快地嘗試新的晶片設計並驗證是否可行。我不認為地球上任何地方存在這樣的一棟建築。因此,當我們在 AI 晶片上做一些令人興奮、具冒險性且高風險高報酬的押注時,這將會非常有幫助。但它的重點,如我所說,主要是 Optimus:也就是我們要如何讓 Optimus 盡可能有用。
And we have like we have Digital Optimus, which is basically driving a computer screen, I guess you can call it computer use or something like that, but driving a computer screen in the same way you drive a car. So for the car, it's sort of pixels in or photons in and controls out. The same thing is true for Optimus and Digital Optimus. It's photons in, controls out.
而且我們有類似「數位 Optimus」的東西,基本上是在操作電腦螢幕;我想你可以稱之為電腦使用之類的,但就是以你開車的方式來操作電腦螢幕。所以對車而言,是像素輸入或光子輸入,然後輸出控制。對 Optimus 和數位 Optimus 也是一樣。就是光子輸入、控制輸出。
So we feel confident we can adapt the same Tesla AI technology that we developed for self-driving cars to have a self-driving computer screen, self-driving computer essentially. So the self-driving computer where the Tesla -- the very low cost, Tesla AI computer can handle all of the sort of short-term tasks. They're doing real-time video control of the screen of the computer.
因此我們有信心,可以把我們為自動駕駛車開發的同一套 Tesla AI 技術,調整用來實現「自動駕駛的電腦螢幕」,也就是本質上「自動駕駛的電腦」。所以這個自動駕駛電腦由 Tesla——非常低成本的 Tesla AI 電腦——來處理所有短期任務。它們在做的是對電腦螢幕的即時影像控制。
So it's not like screenshots type of things, it's real-time video and high frame rate. And Digital Optimus will be important, obviously, for physical Optimus because physical Optimus needs to be able to operate computers. Like you can't come up to a touchscreen and not know what to do. It's got to have a generalized touchscreen and computer use capability.
所以這不是截圖那種方式,而是即時影片,而且是高幀率。而數位 Optimus 顯然也會對實體 Optimus 很重要,因為實體 Optimus 需要能操作電腦。例如你不能走到觸控螢幕前卻不知道該做什麼。它必須具備通用的觸控螢幕與電腦使用能力。
So that's looking promising. And this is in partnership with SpaceX. SpaceX is sort of the big model that is kind of like the manager of Digital Optimus and kind of tells Digital Optimus what to do, provides it with a series of tasks and then digital Optimus goes and does those tasks.
所以這看起來很有希望。而且這是與 SpaceX 的合作。SpaceX 有點像是那個大型模型,某種程度上像數位 Optimus 的管理者,告訴數位 Optimus 該做什麼,提供一系列任務,然後數位 Optimus 就去完成那些任務。
We're also building out a megapod design that has Tesla AI4 computers with x86. So pairing x86 computer with the Tesla AI4 computer in a box, it's got Digital Optimus in a box. And in a megapod, kind of like the Megapack packaging. And so we put just a large number of AI4+x86 combos in a giant box essentially. And these boxes can be placed anywhere in the country or outside the country.
我們也在打造一個 megapod 設計,裡面有搭載 x86 的 Tesla AI4 電腦。也就是把 x86 電腦與 Tesla AI4 電腦配對放在一個盒子裡,等於是把數位 Optimus 裝進一個盒子。並且以 megapod 的形式,有點像 Megapack 的封裝。因此我們本質上是把大量的 AI4+x86 組合放進一個巨大的箱體裡。而這些箱體可以放在國內任何地方或海外。
And this allows us to scale AI compute using disaggregated electricity production. So because there's lots of places all around the world, including in our superchargers. I think we've got something like 7 gigawatts of power at our superchargers and growing. And we can place megapods at many of these superchargers and have distributed power for AI. So I think that, that could be quite a big deal.
這讓我們能透過分散式的電力供應來擴展 AI 算力。因為全球各地有很多地方都具備電力來源,包括我們的超級充電站。我想我們的超級充電站目前大約有 7 吉瓦的電力,而且還在成長。我們可以在許多這些超級充電站部署 megapod,為 AI 提供分散式電力。所以我認為這可能會是相當重大的事情。
So in conclusion, we're super excited about our autonomy and robotics road map. There's so much awesome stuff coming. It's, like I said, hard to squeeze into an earnings call. But we'll have a lot of product announcements.
總結來說,我們對自動化與機器人路線圖感到非常興奮。接下來會有非常多很棒的內容。就像我說的,很難塞進一場財報電話會議裡。但我們會有很多產品公告。
And this is going to be a great year for Tesla, I think one of our best years ever. And then I think next year will be even better. So in conclusion, I want to thank the Tesla team for their excellent execution and all of our supporters for joining us in this journey. Thank you.
而我認為今年對 Tesla 會是很棒的一年,可能是我們史上最好的年份之一。然後我認為明年會更好。所以最後,我想感謝 Tesla 團隊出色的執行力,也感謝所有支持者與我們一同踏上這段旅程。謝謝。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great. Thanks so much, Elon. And now Vaibhav has some opening remarks.
很好。非常感謝你,Elon。接下來 Vaibhav 會有一些開場說明。
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Travis. So Q2 continued the trend that we saw at the end of Q1, a resurgence in demand for our vehicles across the globe. We achieved record Q2 deliveries globally with sequential growth across the Americas, APAC and EMEA of 60%, 27% and 12%, respectively. Additionally, Model Y set records in several key markets, including the Netherlands, Australia and New Zealand. The efforts of the Tesla team to create compelling products at a reasonable price with the capability of autonomous driving are coming to fruition.
謝謝你,Travis。第二季延續了我們在第一季末看到的趨勢:全球對我們車輛的需求回升。我們在第二季達成全球交付量新高,美洲、亞太(APAC)與歐洲中東非洲(EMEA)分別較前一季成長 60%、27% 與 12%。此外,Model Y 在多個關鍵市場創下紀錄,包括荷蘭、澳洲與紐西蘭。Tesla 團隊以合理價格打造具吸引力、並具備自動駕駛能力的產品之努力,正在開花結果。
We exited Q2 with our largest order backlog since 2023. We are, therefore, focused on increasing production at all our factories to meet this growing demand. Production growth will be limited by our supply chain. This includes not just batteries, but also electronic components. We've been here before. And like always, our Tesla team is working actively to unblock the obstacles ahead by securing strategic deals with suppliers.
我們在第二季結束時的訂單積壓量,達到自 2023 年以來的最高水準。因此,我們專注於提升所有工廠的產量,以滿足這股成長中的需求。產量成長將受到供應鏈限制。這不僅包括電池,也包括電子元件。我們以前也遇過這種情況。而且一如既往,我們的 Tesla 團隊正積極透過與供應商簽訂策略性協議,來排除前方的障礙。
Like Elon mentioned, one of the key factors for vehicle demand has been FSD. Our sales data suggests one of the main reasons customers are coming and looking at the car is because of FSD. In Q2, we had in North America, about 55% of our deliveries had FSD subscription at the time of delivery enabled.
如 Elon 所提到的,影響車輛需求的關鍵因素之一是 FSD。我們的銷售數據顯示,客戶前來看車的主要原因之一就是 FSD。在第二季,我們在北美約有 55% 的交付車輛在交付時已啟用 FSD 訂閱。
Overall, FSD attach rates continue to improve, reaching nearly 1.5 million paid customers globally, of which 55% is upfront purchases and the remaining 45% is subscriptions. We expect that the bulk of the growth in FSD monetization will come from subscriptions as we removed the purchase option in most markets.
整體而言,FSD 的附加率持續改善,全球付費客戶已接近 150 萬,其中 55% 為一次性預付購買,其餘 45% 為訂閱。我們預期 FSD 變現成長的大部分將來自訂閱,因為我們已在多數市場移除購買選項。
Automotive margins, excluding regulatory credits, declined sequentially from 19.2% to 16.3%. As a reminder, we had highlighted in Q1 that we had a $230 million benefit from warranty true-downs and some tariff relief, which did not repeat in Q2.
汽車業務毛利率(不含監管信用額度)較前一季下滑,從 19.2% 降至 16.3%。提醒一下,我們在第一季曾指出,因保固準備金回沖與部分關稅減免帶來 2.30 億美元的利益,但第二季未再重現。
Controlling for the impact of those benefits from the prior quarter, our automotive gross margins, excluding credits would have been approximately flat. This demonstrates the effective pricing and cost management done by the Tesla team as we continue to drive demand.
若控制前一季上述利益的影響,我們的汽車毛利率(不含信用額度)大致會是持平。這顯示在我們持續推動需求之際,特斯拉團隊在定價與成本管理方面的成效。
Commodity price increases and interest rate changes all continue to add to our costs. Note that interest rate subvention costs are recognized upfront as revenue offset. So as interest rates have risen this year, the cost of subvention has risen along with them, which had a negative impact on automotive margins.
大宗商品價格上漲與利率變動仍持續推升我們的成本。請注意,利率補貼(subvention)成本會在前期一次性認列,作為營收的抵減項。因此,隨著今年利率上升,補貼成本也隨之提高,對汽車毛利率造成負面影響。
As we have previously noted, energy business is inherently lumpy. Deployments are tied to customer time lines and largely out of our control. In Q2, we deployed 13.5 gigawatt hour of energy storage, a 53% sequential increase and the second largest quarter for energy business. Despite this growth, energy gross margins declined from 39.5% to 20.4%. This margin decline was a result of several dynamics.
如我們先前所述,能源業務本質上具有波動性。部署進度取決於客戶時程,且多半不在我們可控範圍內。第二季我們部署了 13.5 GWh 的儲能,較前一季成長 53%,為能源業務史上第二高的季度。儘管成長,能源毛利率仍從 39.5% 降至 20.4%。毛利率下滑是由多項因素所致。
First, there was a warranty true-up in the quarter of about $240 million related to certain vendor cell issues for our legacy deployments. Also, the tariff benefits we recognized in Q1 of more than $200 million did not repeat.
首先,本季針對我們既有部署中某些供應商電芯問題,進行了約 2.40 億美元的保固準備金調整(true-up)。此外,我們在第一季認列的超過 2.00 億美元關稅利益,本季未再重現。
And lastly, we had previously guided that ASPs for industrial storage is coming down amidst growing competition. Long term, we believe the energy business should normalize at a gross margin rate in the mid- to low 20% range. Our order backlog of this business is robust, and we are doing our best to build based on both existing demand and future demand we expect from data center growth and overall electrification of the economy.
最後,我們先前已指引,在競爭加劇之下,工業儲能的 ASP(平均售價)正在下滑。長期而言,我們認為能源業務的毛利率應會回歸至約 20% 出頭(中段至低段)的區間。該業務的訂單積壓相當強勁,我們正盡最大努力依據既有需求,以及我們預期由資料中心成長與整體經濟電氣化所帶來的未來需求來擴產。
Service and other margins improved sequentially from 9.2% to 14.1%, an all-time high. This was mainly driven by an uptick in volume and better cost management of our vehicle fleet that supports businesses such as used car, supercharging, service centers and insurance. While marginal today, also included in this business are deliberate investments we are making in infrastructure that will help scale Robotaxi in the future.
服務與其他業務毛利率較前一季改善,從 9.2% 升至 14.1%,創歷史新高。主要由於量的提升,以及對支援二手車、超級充電、服務中心與保險等業務之車隊的成本管理改善。此外,雖然目前占比仍小,該業務也包含我們對基礎設施的策略性投資,將有助於未來擴大 Robotaxi 規模。
We continue to grow the Tesla Robotaxi fleet and have expanded to a total of seven markets in the US. We expect the ramp of the fleet to accelerate throughout the year, along with the expansion into new US markets.
我們持續擴大特斯拉 Robotaxi 車隊,並已在美國擴展至合計七個市場。我們預期今年車隊擴張速度將逐步加快,並同步拓展至更多美國新市場。
As previously guided, operating expenses increased sequentially. The increase came primarily from significant research and development-related activities, including preproduction ramp costs for new products like the Semi Truck, Optimus, Cybercab and other AI initiatives as well as appreciation for an additional compute that we brought online.
如先前指引,營業費用較前一季增加。增加主要來自大量研發相關活動,包括 Semi 卡車、Optimus、Cybercab 等新產品的量產前爬坡成本,以及其他 AI 計畫;同時也包含我們新增上線的額外運算資源所帶來的折舊/攤銷增加。
Additionally, we had charges related to litigation expenses in the quarter. Note that we are in a big investment cycle and expect our operating expenses largely driven by R&D to continue to grow in 2026 and beyond.
此外,本季也認列了與訴訟費用相關的費用。請注意,我們正處於大型投資週期,預期營業費用(主要由研發驅動)將在 2026 年及之後持續成長。
Net income was positively impacted by a mark-to-market gain of $1 billion on our SpaceX holdings, which was offset by losses on FX of approximately $300 million and on Bitcoin of about $100 million. As previously guided, our free cash flow ended up being negative for the quarter.
淨利受到我們持有的 SpaceX 權益按市價評價(mark-to-market)產生 10 億美元收益的正面影響,但部分被外匯約 3.00 億美元損失及比特幣約 1.00 億美元損失所抵銷。如先前指引,我們本季自由現金流最終為負值。
Most of the reason for the -- it going negative is because CapEx more than doubled sequentially, and we expect it to increase further in the second half of 2026. We continue to expect that CapEx for this year will be more than $25 billion.
其轉為負值的主要原因是資本支出(CapEx)較前一季增加逾一倍,且我們預期 2026 年下半年將進一步增加。我們仍預期今年資本支出將超過 250 億美元。
CapEx will grow for the next two to three years as we expand our Robotaxi fleet, expand our production capacity for Optimus, make investments for semiconductor fab, install solar manufacturing capacity and AI compute infrastructure in addition to all the other expansions we'll do for other manufacturing for automotive.
未來兩到三年資本支出將持續成長,因為我們將擴大 Robotaxi 車隊、擴充 Optimus 的產能、投資半導體晶圓廠、建置太陽能製造產能與 AI 運算基礎設施,並且還會進行其他汽車製造相關的擴張。
In addition to using our cash for such investments, we are being opportunistic in securing certain debt facilities that will give us the capacity to borrow up to $30 billion to help accelerate such investments. We believe this is the right strategy to position the company for the next era, and we'll always make such investments in a very capital-efficient manner.
除了以現金進行上述投資外,我們也會把握機會取得特定債務融資額度,使我們具備最高可借款 300 億美元的能力,以協助加速這些投資。我們相信這是讓公司為下一個時代做好定位的正確策略,而我們也將一如既往以高度資本效率的方式進行投資。
The path to amazing awareness is ever challenging and requires making bold bets. Our progress will not be -- will be nonlinear. The future is going to be great, and we are ready to rise to the occasion. I would like to end by thanking the Tesla team, our customers, investors and suppliers for their confidence in us on this journey.
通往卓越認知的道路始終充滿挑戰,並需要做出大膽押注。我們的進展不會是——將會是非線性的。未來將會很美好,我們已準備好迎接挑戰。最後,我想感謝特斯拉團隊、我們的客戶、投資人與供應商在這段旅程中對我們的信心。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Thanks so much, Vaibhav. As everyone on the call may have noticed, we've covered several of the say.com questions already in opening remarks, including Optimus production, Terafab and Digital Optimus. Ashok is joining us today, our VP of AI, and he's going to cover questions related to Robotaxi. Ashok?
非常感謝你,Vaibhav。如同各位在電話會議上可能注意到的,我們在開場致詞中已經回答了 say.com 上的幾個問題,包括 Optimus 量產、Terafab 與 Digital Optimus。今天 Ashok 也加入我們,他是我們的 AI 副總裁,將回答與 Robotaxi 相關的問題。Ashok?
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI Software
Thank you, Travis. Many of the questions on say.com relate to Robotaxi deployment and scaling. So we thought we'd provide a comprehensive view of where we are now and where we are going in the future. First of all, I'd like to state that the Robotaxi program has been operating extremely well. Especially in terms of safety, the program has had an impeccable safety record.
謝謝你,Travis。say.com 上許多問題都與 Robotaxi 的部署與規模化有關。因此我們想提供一個全面的觀點,說明我們目前的狀況以及未來的方向。首先,我想說明 Robotaxi 計畫的運作表現非常好。尤其在安全方面,該計畫維持了無可挑剔的安全紀錄。
We have driven more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised Robotaxi now across six cities in two different states. We have had zero notable incidents. Any reports have been of other actors impacting us when we were stationary. Again, I'd like to emphasize how safe the operation has been so far, zero notable incidents over 380,000 miles.
目前我們已在兩個州的六座城市,累計完成超過 38 萬英里的無人監督(unsupervised)Robotaxi 行駛里程。我們沒有發生任何值得注意的事故。任何通報都屬於我們在靜止狀態下受到其他參與者影響。我再次強調,截至目前運作非常安全,38 萬英里零重大事件。
Historically, the so-called experts have always claimed that you need LiDARs, radars, HD maps and the entire kitchen sink to drive safely. Here, we show that such is not true. You can have safe, comfortable and affordable autonomy with just cameras. This record should be a huge validation of Tesla's entire AI approach.
過去,所謂的專家總是宣稱,要安全駕駛就需要 LiDAR、雷達、HD 高精地圖,以及各種配備一應俱全。在這裡,我們證明事實並非如此。僅靠攝影機,你也能實現安全、舒適且可負擔的自動駕駛。這項紀錄應該是對特斯拉整體 AI 路線的重大驗證。
Second, I'd like to discuss scaling. We started the Robotaxi program roughly a year ago in Austin. We had safety monitors in the passenger seats of the cars back then. Around the end of last year, we had the first fully unsupervised Robotaxis in Austin. Since the beginning of this year, we have grown at double-digit growth rates to the number of unsupervised miles that the fleet drives every week.
第二,我想談談規模化。我們大約在一年前於奧斯汀啟動 Robotaxi 計畫。當時車內副駕駛座上有安全監控員。大約在去年年底,我們在奧斯汀推出了第一批完全無人監督的 Robotaxi。自今年年初以來,我們在車隊每週無人監督行駛里程方面,以雙位數成長率持續擴大。
I repeat, we have grown at such a high compounding rate on a week-over-week basis over the last several months. Not only that, we expect to continue growing at such a large rate through the rest of this year. The other thing to note is that for expanding to new cities, it has been relatively less effort on our front. We expect that the time to launch to a new city will continue to trend towards zero towards an end where we operate in the entire states as a whole instead of going by a city by city.
我再重申一次,過去幾個月我們以週對週的方式,維持了非常高的複利成長率。不僅如此,我們預期在今年剩餘時間仍將以如此高的速度持續成長。另外值得注意的是,擴展到新城市對我們而言相對省力。我們預期新城市上線所需時間將持續趨近於零,最終我們會以整個州為單位來營運,而不是逐城推進。
Such growth was only possible because we have a world-class engineering team on the frontier AI development here at Tesla. The currently operating Robotaxi fleet is already running early versions of the v15 FSD software that we had referred to in the past.
這樣的成長之所以可能,完全是因為我們在特斯拉擁有一支世界級、站在前沿 AI 開發的工程團隊。目前在運行的 Robotaxi 車隊,已經在跑我們過去提到的 v15 FSD 軟體的早期版本。
For v15, we had planned roughly about seven major improvement tracks, and they're all happening in parallel. The early v15 builds that are running on Robotaxi have already -- 40% of those tracks merged together, and that's what's running in the fleet right now.
針對 v15,我們規劃了大約七條主要的改進路線,而且它們都在並行推進。目前在 Robotaxi 上運行的 v15 早期版本,這些路線中已有——40% 已經合併在一起,這就是現在車隊正在運行的版本。
As we continue to complete our work on v15, we will see that the car is going to be ridiculously safe and capable. We're already seeing internal signs that all of these bets that we have made for technology improvements are all continuing to -- are all starting to work, and we expect that the payoff will be huge, and that's what is going to help us sustain the same growth rate through the rest of this year and so on.
隨著我們持續完成 v15 的工作,我們將看到車輛會變得極其安全且能力非常強。我們已經在內部看到跡象:我們為技術改進所下的所有賭注都在持續——都開始奏效;我們預期回報將非常巨大,而這也將幫助我們在今年剩餘時間等持續維持同樣的成長率。
Finally, regarding the Cybercab. First of all, it's a phenomenal product. Anyone who writes it, it instantly falls in love with the experience. We have aligned our manufacturing targets to roughly match the projected growth rate of the unsupervised miles. The same v15 models that power the Model Y and other platforms will also work on Cybercab.
最後,關於 Cybercab。首先,它是一個非常出色的產品。任何人只要搭乘它,就會立刻愛上這種體驗。我們已將製造目標對齊,使其大致匹配無監督里程的預期成長率。為 Model Y 與其他平台提供動力的同一套 v15 模型,也將可用於 Cybercab。
In conclusion, Robotaxi growth so far has been literally exponential while keeping an impeccable safety record. Our technology bets are paying off, helping us sustain the exponential growth for the foreseeable future, and the Cybercab is going to be awesome.
總結來說,Robotaxi 迄今的成長幾乎是指數型的,同時維持無可挑剔的安全紀錄。我們在技術上的押注正在帶來回報,幫助我們在可預見的未來維持指數型成長,而 Cybercab 也會非常棒。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
That's great. Thanks so much, Ashok. And there was one remaining question on data collection for Optimus training. Would you mind covering that as well?
太好了。非常感謝你,Ashok。另外還有一個關於 Optimus 訓練資料蒐集的問題。你也可以一併說明一下嗎?
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI Software
Yeah, definitely. Regarding Optimus, especially Gen 3, Optimus has been designed to not just match the appearance of human beings, but also the functionality and dexterity of humans. One of the main reasons for this approach is that having the human form factor and function allows us to learn from humans on how to perform a wide variety of tasks.
好的,當然。關於 Optimus,尤其是第三代(Gen 3),Optimus 的設計不只是要在外觀上像人類,也要在功能與靈巧度上接近人類。採取這種做法的主要原因之一,是因為具有人類的外形與功能,讓我們能向人類學習如何執行各式各樣的任務。
This opens up the entire world to provide data for training Optimus. Just like FSD, we have access to a broad fleet of humans giving us data from all of the workers at our factory. Optimus can learn quite a bit from observing them, perform their tasks at the factories.
這讓整個世界都能為 Optimus 的訓練提供資料。就像 FSD 一樣,我們可以接觸到大量的人類「車隊」,從工廠所有員工那裡取得資料。Optimus 透過觀察他們,就能學到很多,並在工廠中執行他們的工作。
We also have a dedicated data collection team who can provide a relatively small amount, but of very high-quality demonstrations to do the post-training of these models. This is all on top of any training we can do off of the entire Internet of data that shows demonstrations of people doing various tasks, both in industrial settings and home settings.
我們也有一支專門的資料蒐集團隊,能提供量相對不大、但品質非常高的示範,用於這些模型的後訓練(post-training)。此外,我們也能利用整個網際網路的資料來訓練,這些資料展示了人們在工業場景與居家場景中執行各種任務的示範。
The second flywheel is when we have a large number of Optimus robots practicing their tasks in what we call the Optimus Academy. The data from the bots experiencing the task themselves will be invaluable and help us close any minor form factor gaps that may exist between the bot and the humans.
第二個飛輪是:當我們有大量 Optimus 機器人在我們稱為 Optimus Academy 的環境中練習任務。機器人親自體驗任務所產生的資料將極具價值,並幫助我們彌補機器人與人類之間可能存在的任何細微外形差距。
This is also when the reinforcement learning loop kicks in where the bot initially attempt some tasks, fail sometimes, learns from both the successes and failures of those tasks and eventually learns to master those tasks at perhaps a super human level. Our AI strategy for Optimus is aligned with the same.
這也會啟動強化學習迴圈:機器人一開始嘗試某些任務,有時會失敗,從成功與失敗中學習,最終學會掌握這些任務,甚至可能達到超人水準。我們針對 Optimus 的 AI 策略也與此一致。
It's the same end-to-end strategy that drives FSD, pixels in, controls out. And just like FSD, we expect it to work broadly. In FSD, you can get in the car, type in an address and then hit start and then it's like handles all of driving from park to park. And the same thing is going to be true for Optimus as well.
這是同一套端到端策略在驅動 FSD:輸入像素、輸出控制。而且就像 FSD 一樣,我們預期它能廣泛適用。在 FSD 中,你可以上車、輸入地址、按下開始,然後它就能處理從停車到停車的整段駕駛。同樣地,Optimus 也會如此。
You're going to just ask it to do anything and then you just perform the entire task on its own without you having to do anything along the way. And it's the same team that produced FSD, the v12, 13,14 and now v15 software that now works on Optimus as well. And I'm very confident that Optimus will be an extremely capable robot.
你只要請它做任何事,它就會自行完成整個任務,你不需要在過程中做任何事。而且,打造 FSD v12、13、14、以及現在 v15 軟體的同一個團隊,也同樣在做 Optimus。我非常有信心 Optimus 會是一個能力極強的機器人。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great. Thank you so much, Ashok. So that covers the say.com questions. And now we will move over to analyst questions. The first question comes from Tom from RBC. Tom, please feel free to unmute yourself when you're ready.
很好。非常感謝你,Ashok。以上就涵蓋了 say.com 的問題。接下來我們將進入分析師提問。第一個問題來自 RBC 的 Tom。Tom,準備好時請隨時解除靜音。
Tom, you're still on mute. So please unmute yourself and go ahead and ask your question. Alright. We're not getting any audio from Tom at the moment. So we will try to move on to Andrew, and we'll add Tom back to the queue to come in next. So Andrew, as soon as you can, please unmet yourself and ask your question.
Tom,你目前仍在靜音。請解除靜音,然後開始提問。好的。我們目前沒有收到 Tom 的音訊。所以我們先換到 Andrew,並把 Tom 加回隊列,讓他下一位進來。Andrew,你方便的話請解除靜音並提問。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Can you hear me?
你們聽得到我嗎?
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Yes, we can.
可以,聽得到。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Awesome. Thanks so much for taking the questions. So maybe just to start out on Optimus. Elon, you mentioned that there's really no supply chain today for Optimus. So you've had to mostly in-source a lot of that yourself.
太好了。非常感謝讓我提問。那我先從 Optimus 開始。Elon,你提到目前其實沒有針對 Optimus 的供應鏈。所以你們大多必須自己內製很多東西。
I'm just curious, as you've gone through this exercise, are you seeing any suppliers willing to invest alongside you to set up domestic manufacturing to potentially help you scale more quickly in the US, asking that in the context of, obviously, you want to control your own destiny to some extent and ramp as quickly as possible.
我想請教的是,當你們走過這個過程時,有沒有看到任何供應商願意與你們一起投資,在美國建立本土製造,以便可能幫助你們更快擴產?我這樣問的背景是:顯然你們在某種程度上希望掌握自己的命運,並盡可能快速爬坡。
But from an investment cycle standpoint, potentially more capital efficient to have some partners help you along the way. So I'm just curious how you're thinking about that and some of the dialogue you've had with potentially some external suppliers.
但從投資週期的角度來看,若有一些合作夥伴在過程中協助,可能會更具資本效率。所以我想了解你們如何看待這件事,以及你們與一些外部供應商可能進行過哪些對話。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Elon, you may be on mute right now. We can't hear you.
Elon,你現在可能在靜音。我們聽不到你。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Sorry, yeah, our suppliers have been great, and they've made -- they have made and are making tremendous investments in support of Optimus and Robotaxi and whatnot. Samsung and TSMC, in particular, are building fabs at TSMC in Arizona and Samsung in Texas and putting in tens of billions of dollars for -- to build AI compute for Optimus and Robotaxi. Panasonic has also invested many billions in increasing battery cell production.
抱歉,是的,我們的供應商一直都很棒,而且他們已經——他們已經並正在進行巨額投資,以支持 Optimus、Robotaxi 等等。尤其是 Samsung 和 TSMC,TSMC 正在亞利桑那州、Samsung 正在德州建廠,並投入數百億美元——用來建置為 Optimus 與 Robotaxi 提供 AI 運算的產能。Panasonic 也投入了數十億美元來提升電池電芯產量。
I'm a little under the weather here. So I sound a little kind of struggling with some a little bit today. So yeah, but our partners have been great. And I'd like to thank them for their support and their investment and their hard work.
我這邊身體有點不舒服。所以我今天聽起來有點——有點吃力。不過是的,我們的合作夥伴一直都很棒。我也想感謝他們的支持、投資,以及辛勤付出。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Great. Thanks for that. And maybe just to --
很好。謝謝你。也許只是想--
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Sorry, Andrew, we're going to have Karn hop in here for additional color briefly.
抱歉,Andrew,我們會請 Karn 在這裡簡短補充一些背景說明。
Karn Budhiraj - Vice President of Global Supply Management
Karn Budhiraj - Vice President of Global Supply Management
Yeah. Just to add to Elon's point, the Samsung fab that's going to be pretty significantly dedicated to future projects. That's a massive investment, multibillion dollar. We're having -- we're seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits and all sorts of nonlinear technologies that are more based for the robot as opposed to the traditional vehicle supply chain we've had. And in certain cases where we don't find a great partner, we've never hesitated from in-sourcing it. And we have a very capable manufacturing engineering team and a design team that helps us scale those things.
對。補充 Elon 的觀點,Samsung 的晶圓廠將會相當大幅度地專注於未來專案。那是一筆巨額投資,數十億美元等級。我們也看到同等規模的投資流向記憶體,以及新的特定項目,例如金屬射出成形零件、軟性印刷電路板,以及各種更偏向機器人而非我們過去傳統車用供應鏈的非線性技術。在某些情況下,如果找不到很好的合作夥伴,我們從不猶豫改為內製。而且我們有非常有能力的製造工程團隊與設計團隊,協助我們把這些事情規模化。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Yeah. I actually I'd also like to thank Micron for giving us the memory allocation. They're going to make some very tough decisions on memory allocation, and we really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days.
對。我也想感謝 Micron 給我們記憶體配額。他們在記憶體配額分配上必須做出一些非常艱難的決策,我們非常感謝 Micron 在未來幾年為 Tesla 挪出空間,並且在如今記憶體價格相當瘋狂的情況下,仍以合理條件給了我們其實非常可觀的配額。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Great. Really appreciate that color. And maybe just my follow-up on Robotaxis. You guys gave a lot of great information in your prepared remarks. But there seems to be some evolving regulations at the state level, potentially around sensor requirements.
很好。非常感謝這些補充說明。接著我想追問一下 Robotaxi。你們在事先準備的發言中提供了很多很棒的資訊。但州層級似乎有一些持續演變的法規,可能與感測器要求有關。
So I'm just curious, as you think about your own rollout, what do you want to see or what do you need to see from regulators to make sure that, obviously, some regulation might be good, but you don't want it to be overregulated. So what are you expecting to see? What do you want to see to make sure that this is done in a proper way?
所以我想請教,當你們思考自己的推廣時程時,你們希望看到、或需要看到監管機關提供什麼,才能確保——當然某些監管可能是好的,但你們也不希望被過度監管。所以你們預期會看到什麼?你們希望看到什麼,才能確保這件事以適當的方式推進?
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
And we've got Lars on the line. Lars, if you wouldn't mind covering this one, if you can.
我們也請 Lars 在線上。Lars,如果你不介意的話,能否請你回答這題。
Lars Moravy - Vice President of Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President of Vehicle Engineering
Yeah, sure, Travis. I mean, I think when we talk about regulation, particularly in the US, we've made a lot of headway just good initiatives from the federal government in terms of the FMVSS rules, moving towards acceptance and adoption of purely built AVs, and I really appreciate the support from NHTSA on that. When it comes to like a state-to-state level, obviously, the stuff in New Jersey is a little bit disheartening.
好的,當然,Travis。我想談到監管,特別是在美國,我們已經取得不少進展,聯邦政府在 FMVSS 規則方面推出了很好的倡議,正朝向接受並採納純自動駕駛車輛(AV)的方向前進,我也非常感謝 NHTSA 在這方面的支持。至於州與州之間的層級,顯然,新澤西那邊的情況有點令人沮喪。
I think ultimately, as Ashok said in his opening remarks, we really focus on the performance of the vehicle. And ultimately, that's what's going to drive regulators and the public to adopt it. I think the best regulations are those that provide companies and innovators with a goal or a task and allow us to figure out the solution.
我認為最終,如同 Ashok 在開場發言中所說,我們真正聚焦的是車輛的性能表現。而最終,這才是推動監管機關與大眾採納的關鍵。我認為最好的法規,是為公司與創新者提供一個目標或任務,並讓我們自行找出解決方案。
And when we see regulations that provide a solution before identifying the problem, we really don't appreciate those. But as Tesla always has and will continue to do, we'll let our performance speak for itself. And I think Ashok laid that out really clearly, and that will be the foundation of our expansion moving forward.
當我們看到法規在尚未界定問題之前就先指定解法時,我們確實不太認同。但 Tesla 一向如此、也會持續如此——讓我們的表現自己說話。我想 Ashok 已經把這點講得很清楚,而這也將成為我們未來擴張的基礎。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Great. Thanks for the questions.
很好。謝謝提問。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Thanks so much. We're going to try Tom again from RBC. Tom, can you unmute and try to speak please. Unfortunately, Tom, we see you unmuted but we're not hearing you. So we're going to send you back into the queue. Next is Alex from Bank of America. Alex, [it seems], you can, please, unmute yourself.
非常感謝。我們再試一次 RBC 的 Tom。Tom,你可以解除靜音並嘗試發言嗎?很遺憾,Tom,我們看到你已解除靜音,但聽不到你的聲音。所以我們會把你送回排隊序列。下一位是美國銀行的 Alex。Alex,[看起來]你可以請解除靜音。
Alexander Perry - Equity Analyst
Alexander Perry - Equity Analyst
Hey. Thanks for the questions, here. Just a few follow-ups on Robotaxi actually. I guess what milestones should investors be watching from here that would cause you to accelerate your fleet scaling or market deployments?
嗨。謝謝讓我提問。其實有幾個關於 Robotaxi 的追問。我想投資人接下來應該關注哪些里程碑,會讓你們加速車隊擴張或市場部署?
Is it the further safety validation like a miles driven per incident or something else? And then, would you ever consider third-party distribution partnerships such as with rideshare providers to increase utilization? Or is the plan for now to keep Robotaxi fully vertically integrated? Thanks.
是更進一步的安全驗證,例如每起事件的行駛里程之類,還是其他指標?另外,你們是否會考慮與第三方通路合作夥伴(例如叫車平台)合作,以提高使用率?還是目前計畫仍是讓 Robotaxi 完全垂直整合?謝謝。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Yeah. We expect to be vertically integrated with Robotaxi as we are in the rest of our business. So I don't think we're going to have any demand challenges with Robotaxi. So this is -- the economics will be so compelling that I think we will really have a lot more desire to use the service then like I think demand will outstrip our ability to service the demand. And so obviously, you just -- there's -- you can just go vertical in that situation.
對。我們預期 Robotaxi 會像我們其他業務一樣採取垂直整合。所以我不認為 Robotaxi 會有任何需求面的挑戰。因為它的經濟性會非常有吸引力,我認為大家想使用服務的意願會非常強,需求會超過我們服務需求的能力。所以在那種情況下,你就——你就只能往垂直整合去做。
So it's really just about going through what we call the March 9 of reliability where you need like how many reliability do you need to scale? Ideally, you want [99.999999%] reliable. And so that's the -- it's just the March 9 of reliability. I think the only thing really constraining our growth in Robotaxi.
所以重點其實就是要達到我們所說的「可靠性九的進程」(March 9),也就是你需要多少個 9 的可靠性才能擴大規模?理想上,你希望達到 [99.999999%] 的可靠度。所以——就是可靠性九的進程。我認為這是唯一真正限制我們 Robotaxi 成長的因素。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great. Thanks, Elon. The next question is going to come from Colin at Wells Fargo. Colin, please unmute yourself when you're ready.
很好。謝謝你,Elon。下一題來自 Wells Fargo 的 Colin。Colin,準備好時請解除靜音。
Colin Langan - Analyst
Colin Langan - Analyst
Great. Thanks for taking my questions. There's been a lot of chatter about SpaceX and Tesla combining in some way. I mean, a lot of collaboration already today. I mean, Elon, do you see synergies eventually from combining the companies? And does that make sense for me from your perspective over time?
很好。謝謝回答我的問題。市場上有很多人在談 SpaceX 和 Tesla 以某種方式合併。我的意思是,現在已經有很多合作。Elon,你是否認為未來把兩家公司結合會產生協同效應?從你的角度看,長期而言這樣做合理嗎?
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Well, I mean, as you can tell from the many collaborations on so many fronts with SpaceX and there's a lot -- there's more and more overlap, especially with Terafab, that's really going to be a gigantic project. So -- but obviously, we can't talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call. It's got to be done with the appropriate process.
嗯,我的意思是,從 SpaceX 在很多面向的多項合作你也看得出來,重疊之處越來越多,尤其是 Terafab,那將會是一個非常龐大的專案。所以——但顯然,我們不能在財報電話會議上談論合併公司之類的事情。這必須透過適當的程序來進行。
And with that, I'll turn it over to Brandon, our General Counsel.
接下來我把問題交給我們的總法律顧問 Brandon。
Brandon Ehrhart - General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Brandon Ehrhart - General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Thanks, Elon. And that's exactly right. We continue to benefit from our relationship with SpaceX, and we've -- they've been a great partner, and we have numerous beneficial transactions with them. And earlier this year, we deepened our relationship through an investment and a framework agreement. This will allow us to continue to work with them on projects that Elon mentioned like Terafab and Digital Optimus.
謝謝你,Elon。沒錯,就是如此。我們持續從與 SpaceX 的關係中受益——他們一直是很棒的合作夥伴,我們與他們有許多互利的交易。而在今年稍早,我們透過一項投資與框架協議加深了合作關係。這將使我們能持續與他們在 Elon 提到的專案上合作,例如 Terafab 與 Digital Optimus。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Yeah. And there's many other things, too. Obviously, you've got Grok in the car. And -- so -- and Grok helping drive Digital Optimus. You also got Starlink being integrated into the Cybercab and Starlink will be integrated into all of our vehicles, at least for markets that Starlink is active.
對。而且還有很多其他事情。顯然,你已經把 Grok 放進車裡了。而且——Grok 也在協助推動 Digital Optimus。你也有 Starlink 正在整合進 Cybercab,而 Starlink 也會整合到我們所有車輛中,至少在 Starlink 已開通的市場會是如此。
Because for a Robotaxi situation, you need to have coverage everywhere. And there are many places even in Silicon Valley where the cellular coverage is terrible or sometimes nonexistent, which is surprising for Silicon Valley. But I know when I want to drive to work with the first 10, 15 minutes, I can't actually do any calls because the cellular connectivity is so bad.
因為在 Robotaxi 的情境下,你需要做到到處都有覆蓋。而且即使在矽谷,也有很多地方的行動網路覆蓋很差,甚至有時候根本沒有,這對矽谷來說很令人意外。但我知道我想開車去上班時,前 10、15 分鐘我其實完全不能打電話,因為行動網路連線太差。
So we can't have Robotaxis getting stuck in these like Bermuda triangles of lack of cellular connectivity. So Starlink with its ability to do connectivity anywhere is actually quite important. So we don't have Robotaxis missing in action.
所以我們不能讓 Robotaxi 卡在這些像百慕達三角一樣、缺乏行動網路連線的地方。因此 Starlink 具備在任何地方都能連線的能力,其實非常重要。這樣我們就不會出現 Robotaxi 失聯、消失不見的情況。
And then obviously, if people are sitting in the car that they're going to want to do high productivity stuff or entertainment. And with Starlink, you can watch 4K live sports in the car and with very low cost per gigabyte of data that's really not feasible via the cellular system. And there's many other situations.
然後很明顯,如果人們坐在車裡,他們會想做高生產力的事情或娛樂。而有了 Starlink,你可以在車裡看 4K 的即時體育賽事,而且每 GB 數據的成本非常低,這透過行動網路系統其實很難做到。還有很多其他情境。
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. I mean I would say think of it like Ashok was mentioning about Cybercab, right, that the experience is great. In a world when you don't have to focus on driving, you have all the time in the car to do whether it's a conference call, watch a movie or anything. That's why if you look at the Cybercab design, it has a big screen.
是的。我的意思是,我會說把它想成 Ashok 提到的 Cybercab,對吧,體驗很棒。在一個你不必專注於駕駛的世界裡,你在車上的時間可以用來做任何事,不管是開電話會議、看電影或其他。所以如果你看 Cybercab 的設計,它有一個大螢幕。
And we've started doing Cybercab rights in our factory in Austin. And when you go through that experience, I mean, soon, customers will be able to do it in not-too-distant future, and then you'll understand why that connectivity becomes so important.
而且我們已經開始在奧斯汀的工廠進行 Cybercab 的乘坐體驗。當你經歷過那個體驗後——我的意思是,很快,在不久的將來,客戶也能做到——你就會明白為什麼連線能力會變得如此重要。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great. And then, Colin, do you have a follow-up?
很好。接著,Colin,你有追問嗎?
Colin Langan - Analyst
Colin Langan - Analyst
Yeah. Just if I follow up on Robotaxi. If I look at the launches, it's been -- you've been adding cities, but the number of units is still -- it looks like based on media reports, sort of in the dozens as opposed to hundreds. Why not just sort of scale up Austin or one or two cities before adding cities? And sort of what do you need to sort of get that higher volume numbers in a major city? What sort of is the roadblock to sort of adding more vehicles on the ground?
有。我想就 Robotaxi 追問一下。如果我看你們的上線進度,你們一直在新增城市,但車輛數量仍然——看起來根據媒體報導,大概是幾十輛而不是幾百輛。為什麼不先把奧斯汀或一兩個城市先擴大規模,再去新增城市?而要在一個主要城市把數量拉到更高的量級,你們需要什麼?在地面上增加更多車輛的障礙是什麼?
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI Software
The reason we have been expanding across different cities instead of just doubling down on a single city is that we want to make sure that our stack is a very general one. It is a general one. We just want to like both prove to ourselves and to other folks that it is working across a lot of different cities without too much effort per city. And that's what we see internally. And then as Elon mentioned earlier, the growth rate has been literally exponential. Just it's in the early part of the exponential. That's why it's hard for others to comprehend.
我們之所以擴展到不同城市,而不是只在單一城市加倍投入,是因為我們想確保我們的技術堆疊是一個非常通用的系統。它本來就是通用的。我們只是想同時向自己以及其他人證明:它能在許多不同城市運作,而且每個城市不需要投入太多額外工作。而這也是我們內部看到的情況。另外如 Elon 先前提到的,成長率確實是指數型的。只是目前還在指數曲線的早期階段。所以其他人很難理解。
In terms of like miles versus the vehicles, since these vehicles operating in the Robotaxi fleet drive basically continuously as opposed to human drivers who use vehicles for maybe a couple of hours a day or something like that, these vehicles are in mostly continuous operation, which means that even for a few vehicles, you can get a lot of miles out of them. And that's why we are tracking the amount of unsupervised miles over just the number of vehicles or something like that. And we want to be operating in a very efficient fleet. So all of the work that goes into the efficiency makes it even more so that we get a lot of miles per vehicle available in the fleet.
就里程數相對於車輛數而言,由於 Robotaxi 車隊中的車輛基本上是持續運行,而不是像人類駕駛那樣一天可能只用車幾個小時之類的,這些車大多處於幾乎連續的運行狀態,這表示即使只有少量車輛,也能累積很多里程。因此我們追蹤的是無人監督里程數,而不只是車輛數之類的指標。而且我們希望車隊運營非常高效率。所以所有投入在效率上的工作,會讓每輛車在車隊中可用的里程數更高。
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. And just to add further to this and like what -- think of it, we're trying to scale this. And we're trying to make sure that there are different kinks which would be there. And there are things not just on the software front, on the operation front, which we're also trying to tackle. So that's why we're trying to have a broader footprint to try and make sure before we go really high in terms of deployment that we are able to sort these things out in a smaller fleet in a controlled manner.
是的。再補充一下,並且——可以這樣想——我們正在嘗試把它規模化。我們也在確保會出現的各種問題(kinks)都能被處理。而且不只是軟體面,營運面也有很多事情我們正在處理。所以我們才會想要有更廣的佈局,確保在真正大規模部署之前,我們能在較小、可控的車隊中把這些事情整理好。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Yeah. One of the things for Cybercab should be noted is because it is a new vehicle chassis, we need to accumulate driving data that is specific to the Cybercab before we can put a lot of them on the road. So unlike say Model 3 and Model Y and our other vehicles where we've got a lot of vehicles on the road, millions of vehicles on the road. We don't have that for Cybercabs. So we actually have to accumulate miles with Cybercab that are retrofitted with steering wheels and brakes acceleration braking battles that kind of thing to calibrate to the Cybercab chassis. So you'll see -- as we are confident about that, the number of Cybercabs in cities will increase dramatically.
是的。關於 Cybercab 有一點需要注意:因為它是全新的車體底盤,我們需要先累積針對 Cybercab 的特定行駛數據,才能把大量車輛投放上路。所以不像 Model 3、Model Y 以及我們其他車款,路上已經有大量車輛——數百萬輛在路上。Cybercab 並沒有這樣的基礎。因此我們其實必須讓加裝方向盤與煞車、加速與煞車踏板等裝置的 Cybercab 先累積里程,來針對 Cybercab 底盤進行校準。所以你會看到——當我們對此有信心後,各城市的 Cybercab 數量會大幅增加。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great. Our next question comes from -- go ahead, Lars.
很好。下一個問題來自——請說,Lars。
Lars Moravy - Vice President of Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President of Vehicle Engineering
So I can just add like one thought here. The other reason I just want to like point out is like TCO transportation regulatory situations are different city by city, state by state is not a federal framework to do that. And so like the reason we're expanding city by city is to make sure that we're meeting all of those one at a time, and we're satisfying all of the requests of each individual city in every way we can. So we have to expand to each city to meet those requirements, and we'll continue to do so. And to all of what Ashok and Vaibhav, and Ashok said, we will follow with the scaling.
我再補充一個想法。另一個原因我想指出的是,各城市、各州在交通監管情況上(以及 TCO)都不一樣,並沒有一個聯邦層級的統一框架來處理。所以我們之所以一個城市一個城市地擴展,是為了確保我們逐一符合所有要求,並在我們能做到的每個方面滿足每個城市的各項請求。因此我們必須擴展到每個城市去符合那些要求,而且我們會持續這麼做。而且如 Ashok 和 Vaibhav(以及 Ashok)所說,我們之後會跟進擴大規模。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Thanks, Lars. The next question is coming from Walt from LightShed. Walt, please unmute yourself.
謝謝你,Lars。下一個問題來自 LightShed 的 Walt。Walt,請解除靜音。
Walter Piecyk - Analyst
Walter Piecyk - Analyst
Thanks. Just a quick follow-up for that Lars comment. I mean the NHTSA administrator, Jonathan Morrison, was just on CNBC. We already -- is trying to get rid of the pedal and said, I forget his exact term, but it seemed like he want to get rid of the steering wheel. It seemed like that would be a gating factor. But is there other things that you need at the federal level to really kind of unlock your ability to ramp Cybercab?
謝謝。就 Lars 的評論我快速追問一下。NHTSA 的主管 Jonathan Morrison 剛剛才上 CNBC。我們已經——他正在嘗試取消踏板,並且說了某個詞,我忘了他的原話,但聽起來他想取消方向盤。這看起來會是一個關鍵限制因素。但在聯邦層級,還有其他你們需要的事情,才能真正解鎖你們加速推升 Cybercab 的能力嗎?
Lars Moravy - Vice President of Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President of Vehicle Engineering
And the short answer is no. I mean I think we have a great relationship with NHTSA and administrator Morrison, especially. And I think they're just following through with what the public wants in the world knows is coming, and they're trying to stay ahead of it and make sure that they're doing the right things in place.
簡短的答案是:不需要。我的意思是,我認為我們和 NHTSA,特別是和 Morrison 主管,關係非常好。我想他們只是順應大眾想要的方向,以及世界都知道即將到來的趨勢,並且試著走在前面,確保把正確的措施先到位。
So we've been open on this with them for the last couple of years about what our plans were and what we're doing. And I don't want to say we're in lockstep, but I feel like we have a partner there, and we're working together on it.
所以過去幾年我們一直就我們的計畫與正在做的事情,對他們保持開放溝通。我不想說我們完全步調一致,但我覺得我們在那裡有一個合作夥伴,而且我們正在一起推進。
Walter Piecyk - Analyst
Walter Piecyk - Analyst
Got it. And then just, Elon, kind of a road map question, I guess. Starlink obviously is integrated in Cybercab, and you guys just talked about the connectivity for watching movies, but what about the flip side of that? Can these -- can the cyber cabs become remote hotspots for Starlink Mobile?
了解。然後,Elon,我想這算是一個路線圖的問題。Starlink 顯然已整合在 Cybercab 裡,你們剛才也談到用連線來看電影,但那反過來呢?這些——這些 Cybercab 能不能變成 Starlink Mobile 的遠端熱點?
And then similarly, a road map question on the Semi, when do you anticipate looking at autonomy for the Semi -- because that seems like a pretty sizable market as well in terms of autonomous trucking and the need for it given what's going on in our country right now.
同樣地,關於 Semi 的路線圖問題,你們預計什麼時候會開始考慮讓 Semi 具備自動駕駛——因為就自動化卡車運輸以及目前我們國內的情況所帶來的需求而言,那看起來也是一個相當可觀的市場。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Yeah, absolutely. As you alluded to, there is a really serious shortage of truckers. So there just aren't enough people who around -- who want to drive trucks, which are crucial for transport throughout America. So an autonomous Semi is actually going to be very important to address the shortage of truck drivers. And obviously, it will be great for improving safety and making it easier on truck drivers to have a self-driving Semi is going to, I think, dramatically improve safety and comfort for truck drivers that use the Tesla Semi.
是的,完全同意。如你所提到的,卡車司機真的嚴重短缺。所以就是沒有足夠的人——願意開卡車的人不夠,而卡車對美國各地的運輸至關重要。因此,自動駕駛的 Semi 實際上將非常重要,用來解決卡車司機短缺。而且顯然,這也會大幅提升安全性,並讓卡車司機更輕鬆;我認為,使用 Tesla Semi 的卡車司機若有自動駕駛 Semi,將能顯著提升安全與舒適度。
Since the units -- the total number of units of the Tesla Semi is still low and will continue to be a very small percentage even by the end of this year of our total vehicle fleet, it makes sense for us to focus our efforts, our self-driving efforts on our high-volume vehicles.
由於 Tesla Semi 的總台數目前仍然很低,即使到今年年底,它在我們整體車隊中的占比也仍會非常小,因此我們把自動駕駛的投入重點放在高產量車款上是合理的。
So Model 3 and Y and solving self-driving for -- and really getting to the point where it's generalized unsupervised self-driving for those vehicles and Cybercab. So we expect to do -- get self-driving working on the Tesla Semi probably around the end of this year or early next year.
也就是 Model 3 和 Model Y,並把這些車款的自動駕駛——真正推進到「通用的、無需監督的自動駕駛」的程度,還有 Cybercab。所以我們預期大概在今年年底或明年年初,會讓 Tesla Semi 的自動駕駛開始運作。
And -- but I just don't want it to be a distraction on the March of 9s of self-driving of safety for self-driving on 3Y and Cybercab. That's -- so it's taking a bit of a backseat for the next six months or so for autonomous semi. But it will be -- it will definitely be a bit working next year and in time for the scale up to high production of Tesla Semi.
但——我只是不希望它分散我們在 3/Y 與 Cybercab 的自動駕駛安全性「9 的進展」(March of 9s)的注意力。所以在接下來大約六個月,自動化 Semi 會稍微往後排。不過明年一定會開始推進,並且會趕上 Tesla Semi 擴產到高產量的時程。
For communications, yeah, I think there's an interesting angle there where you could use the Starlink terminals that are in the Tesla cars as like sort of cell towers, I suppose, or connectivity towers basically for providing relays on the ground to cell phones and to anyone who would like Wi-Fi basically. But yeah, I mean it is a different subject, but obviously, we could do that with the stationary stalling terminals, too.
至於通訊,是的,我覺得那裡有個有趣的角度:你可以把 Tesla 車上的 Starlink 終端當作某種基地台——我想可以說是行動基地台,或基本上是連線塔——在地面上為手機以及任何想要 Wi‑Fi 的人提供中繼。不過是的,這是另一個議題;但顯然,我們也可以用固定式的 Starlink 終端來做到。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Alright. Our next question is going to come from Will at Truist. Will, please unmute yourself.
好的。下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Will。Will,請解除靜音。
William Stein - Analyst
William Stein - Analyst
Thanks so much for taking my question. Elon, you teased us a little bit about sort of the supply chain relative to Optimus, highlighting how difficult it's going to be. But we'd be really interested to understand what your propensity is to manufacture semis for this yourself.
非常感謝讓我提問。Elon,你剛才稍微吊了我們胃口,談到 Optimus 相關的供應鏈,並強調這會有多困難。但我們很想了解,你們自行製造這些半導體的傾向有多高。
When we think about microprocessors, microcontrollers, actuators and other semiconductors that are going to be used, it occurs to me that you have many that are commercially available. You have an option to design something of them made at third-party fabs. You also have the option potentially to design and make them yourself. What should we think about your propensity to source these components in these different manners?
當我們想到會用到的微處理器、微控制器、致動器以及其他半導體時,我想到其中很多是市面上可取得的。你們可以選擇自行設計,並交由第三方晶圓廠代工。你們也可能選擇自行設計並自己製造。我們應該如何看待你們以不同方式取得這些元件的傾向?
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
You're talking about making like microcontrollers and like the various computers that are in the car that operate like the steering system and the braking system.
你是指製作像微控制器,以及車上各種電腦——例如控制轉向系統和煞車系統的那些?
William Stein - Analyst
William Stein - Analyst
No. I'm talking about for Optimus, not for --
不是。我是指 Optimus,不是——
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Yeah. Optimus has a lot of really specialized power electronics and circuit boards. It's all Tesla design, design stuff, but it is fabricated by suppliers. For Optimus 4, which will be built in Austin, that will be a much more vertically integrated supply system for Optimus 4. And that we aim to have an order of magnitude more production of Optimus 4 than Optimus 3.
了解。Optimus 有很多非常專用的電力電子與電路板。這些都是 Tesla 自行設計的,但由供應商代工製造。至於會在奧斯汀生產的 Optimus 4,它的供應體系會更垂直整合。而且我們的目標是 Optimus 4 的產量比 Optimus 3 高一個數量級。
So sort of aspirationally 10 million units a year versus 1 million units a year of Optimus 3. But with all the caveats there, which is intensely difficult to scale production. So -- and yeah, Optimus 4 will be much more vertically integrated. So probably doing a lot of the sort of PCV work in-house for that.
也就是比較理想的情況下,每年 1,000 萬台對比 Optimus 3 的每年 100 萬台。但要加上所有但書:擴大產能極其困難。所以——是的,Optimus 4 會更垂直整合。因此可能會把相當多的 PCB 工作放在內部完成。
William Stein - Analyst
William Stein - Analyst
As a follow-up, well, first, maybe you could talk about the timing as to when that -- when Optimus 4 should be -- let's say, start production. But the actual follow-up I wanted to ask was the plan to upgrade Hardware 3 to Hardware 4 in order to be able to process, I suppose it's version 15 of the -- and future versions of FSD. Is that still the plan to do hardware upgrades on the cars?
追問一下,首先也許你可以談談時程——也就是 Optimus 4 大概什麼時候——比如說開始量產。但我真正想追問的是:為了能處理我猜是第 15 版的——以及未來版本的 FSD,把 Hardware 3 升級到 Hardware 4 的計畫還在嗎?車輛硬體升級仍然是計畫的一部分嗎?
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
I think it's going to make sense for -- to upgrade all cars with that are have less than hardware for almost any cars that have cameras basically because otherwise, it probably too many modifications. But anything that's got sort of -- that's set up for cameras, it will be financially sensible at some point to upgrade them.
我認為——要把所有車升級到(至少)某個硬體水準是有道理的;幾乎任何有攝影機的車都可以,因為不然可能需要太多改裝。但凡是已經為攝影機架構做好準備的車,在某個時間點做升級在財務上會是划算的。
And I think we want to upgrade them to the next generation of next-generation AI board, so to be either like we have an upgraded AI chip that's sort of medium -- sort of moderate improvement over AI4, probably reaches production around the middle of next year. And then there's also AI5, which hopefully is in volume production around the middle of next year.
而且我想我們會把它們升級到下一代的 AI 板卡;也就是可能先有一顆升級版 AI 晶片,相較 AI4 有中等幅度的提升,可能在明年年中左右進入量產。另外還有 AI5,希望也能在明年年中左右達到大量量產。
AI will initially go into Optimus and actually making very good progress. So Tesla chip team is really doing great work and making incredibly fast progress on AI. And we're -- I'm very excited about the design of the Tesla AI chip.
AI 一開始會先用在 Optimus 上,而且進展其實非常好。Tesla 的晶片團隊做得非常出色,在 AI 上的進度快得驚人。我對 Tesla AI 晶片的設計感到非常興奮。
I think it's -- I think it's going to be the best edge computing chip in the world. And if somebody has got a better one, I'd like to need that person to shake your hand because the AI chip is just so good. So I think we've got -- I think it's going really well on the chip front. And again, I'd like to thank TSMC and Samsung and Micron for their support.
我認為它——我認為它會是全世界最好的邊緣運算晶片。如果有人有更好的,我想見那個人並跟你握手,因為這顆 AI 晶片真的太強了。所以我覺得——在晶片這一塊進展非常順利。另外也要再次感謝台積電、三星和美光的支持。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great. We are coming up in the hour, but we're going to try to squeeze Dan in from Barclays. Dan, please unmute yourself.
很好。我們快到一小時了,但我們會試著再塞進 Barclays 的 Dan。Dan,請解除靜音。
Dan Levy - Analyst
Dan Levy - Analyst
Great. Thank you. Appreciate it. I'd like to ask about the pace and path of CapEx. Elon, in the past, you've said that you'll spend as much as you can, but really efficiency seems like it's the gating factor. So to what extent right now in this CapEx cycle is your pace of CapEx effectively capped simply because spending any more would be done in an inefficient manner? And to what extent is the pace of CapEx really the primary determinant right now in unlocking the different supply constraints that you have?
很好。謝謝。感謝。我想問資本支出(CapEx)的速度與路徑。Elon,你過去說過你會盡可能多花,但真正的瓶頸似乎是效率。所以在目前這一輪 CapEx 週期中,你們的 CapEx 速度在多大程度上其實是因為再多花就會變得低效率而被有效封頂?又在多大程度上,CapEx 的速度本身是目前解鎖你們各種供應限制的主要決定因素?
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Yeah, it's a good question. I've actually my -- what I've asked the team to do is like really, we should be spending on CapEx as fast as we can spend -- as fast as we can without it being too wasteful. So we're not trying to aim for like some extremely high efficiency capital spend because that would slow things down.
是的,這是個好問題。其實我——我請團隊做的是,我們應該在資本支出(CapEx)上能花多快就花多快——在不至於太浪費的前提下,能花多快就花多快。所以我們不是要追求那種極端高效率的資本支出,因為那會拖慢進度。
So it's a balance between like how much sort of capital efficiency versus time. So if we can be -- it's okay to be a little less capital efficient if we get things done sooner because that's actually going to be the higher NPV outcome for the company.
所以這是在資本效率與時間之間取得平衡。如果我們能——即使資本效率稍微低一點,但能更快把事情做完也沒關係,因為那其實會為公司帶來更高的淨現值(NPV)結果。
So overall, I'm pretty happy with how things are going. I mean we're doing an incredible amount of construction and production growth in so many different arenas simultaneously. I don't think there's ever been a company that's done this at the scale.
所以整體而言,我對進展相當滿意。我的意思是,我們同時在許多不同領域進行驚人的建設與產能成長。我不認為曾有公司以這種規模做到這件事。
But maybe proportionately back when Henry Ford did the Model T or something like that, but World War II when companies were making -- had to sort of scale up reference production. But I think probably this is the fastest industrial scale-up since World War II in America.
不過也許按比例來看,像亨利·福特當年做 T 型車之類的,或是二戰期間企業在製造——必須把相關生產規模快速拉升。但我認為這大概是美國自二戰以來最快的工業規模擴張。
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. And I will just add a little bit on that. Basically, if you look at it, all our spend on CapEx is trying to do productive assets. right? We're basically scaling factories, whether it's Optimus, whether it's Cybercab, whether it's LFP factory, which went into operation earlier this year or the semi factory or even putting in a semiconductor fab in there as well as we are trying to get a lot of solar manufacturing in the US. In fact --
是的。我再補充一點。基本上,如果你看,我們所有的 CapEx 支出都是在打造生產性資產,對吧?我們基本上是在擴建工廠,不管是 Optimus、Cybercab、今年稍早投產的 LFP 工廠、半掛卡車(Semi)工廠,甚至也在規劃導入一座半導體晶圓廠;同時我們也在努力把更多太陽能製造帶回美國。事實上--
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
This is underrated by the way. Please go ahead.
順帶一提,這點被低估了。請繼續。
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Basically, the amount of solar manufacturing, which happens in the US, we are just going to multiply it with an order of magnitude. And none of these things are easy, right? Because what you have to do is in order to build a factory, you have to start from ground zero.
是的。基本上,美國境內的太陽能製造量,我們將把它放大一個數量級。而且這些事情都不容易,對吧?因為要蓋一座工廠,你得從零開始。
So just so you know, again, I don't think we have shared this. We end up being the general contractor for almost all our construction facilities because we are doing that much construction. And so going back to what Elon was saying, we're going at a very rapid scale. And yes, this means that we are doing a lot of things all at the same time. And that's why we just have to go as fast as we can, humanly possible, make things work in the real world.
再讓大家知道一下,我想我們之前也沒分享過。我們最後幾乎成了所有建設設施的總承包商,因為我們同時在做的建設量實在太大。所以回到 Elon 剛才說的,我們是在非常快速的規模下推進。而且是的,這代表我們同時在做很多事情。這也是為什麼我們必須以人類所能做到的最快速度前進,讓事情在現實世界中運作起來。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Yeah. Our CapEx efficiency, I think, is all scale good.
是的。我認為我們的 CapEx 效率整體而言是很好的。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
And then, Dan, did you have a follow-up that we can wrap up with?
接著,Dan,你有沒有一個追問,我們可以用來做個收尾?
Dan Levy - Analyst
Dan Levy - Analyst
Yeah. Maybe just a quick question on energy storage, which I think is a key topic here. Maybe you can just address to what extent is energy storage going to be supply constrained for the foreseeable future? And then just to what extent are the deployments right now, the typical peak shaving that you'd see at utilities versus you've talked about in some of your materials for battery storage, addressing the quality of power issue for data centers given the sharp fluctuations in power use where you have an advantage given software or power electronics. So just what is that demand curve right now between data centers versus just broader peak shaving for utilities?
有的。也許快速問一個關於儲能的問題,我認為這是這裡的關鍵主題。你們能否談談,在可預見的未來,儲能在多大程度上會受到供應限制?另外,目前的部署在多大程度上仍是公用事業常見的削峰(peak shaving),相較之下,你們在一些材料中談到電池儲能可用於解決資料中心因用電劇烈波動而產生的電力品質問題,而你們在軟體或電力電子方面有優勢。所以目前資料中心需求與更廣泛的公用事業削峰需求之間的需求曲線大概是怎樣?
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Well, it's still mostly it's not just peak shaving, but it's also grid balancing. So it's not just like the facts are on briefly, but for balancing power from wind generation and solar generation, batteries are awesome. I mean the solar battery combination will be how the vast majority of energy in the world is produced in the future. That's really, of course, how all of the Starlink satellites are powered with solar panels and batteries.
嗯,目前仍然主要不只是削峰,也包括電網平衡。所以不只是像工廠短時間開一下,而是用來平衡風力發電與太陽能發電的輸出,電池非常棒。我的意思是,太陽能加電池的組合,將會是未來世界上絕大多數能源的生產方式。當然,這也是所有 Starlink 衛星用太陽能板與電池供電的方式。
So -- and you can just think of us like a giant satellite. There's far more power available from the sun than anything else by far. And we think power constraints are going to be -- they really are a major issue for AI, just turning on the AI computers.
所以——你可以把我們想成一顆巨大的衛星。太陽提供的能量遠遠超過其他任何來源。而我們認為電力限制將會——對 AI 來說確實是個重大問題,光是把 AI 電腦開起來就很吃電。
The AI compute demand is so high that people having -- even the -- the hyperscalers are having trouble turning on their AI compute and finding the power and then smoothing the power with -- especially for the training runs where the power cycles dramatically in a very short period of time, you can have -- during a training run, the power consumption can drop by 70% for 100 milliseconds. And you really need fast-acting advanced power electronics to be able to smooth out these massive -- massive changes in power, especially during the training runs.
AI 算力需求高到讓人們——甚至連超大規模雲端業者(hyperscalers)都很難把他們的 AI 算力開起來、找到足夠電力,並且用——尤其是在訓練任務中用電會在很短時間內劇烈循環波動,需要把功率平滑化;你可能會——在一次訓練過程中,功耗可能在 100 毫秒內下降 70%。你真的需要反應快速、先進的電力電子,才能把這些巨大的——巨大的功率變化平滑掉,尤其是在訓練期間。
So that's why SpaceX has bought so many megapacks for the data centers. It's actually mostly for smoothing out the power for the training runs. -- will also be useful for being able to tap more power from the grid by -- if you tell utilities that they can that they will not need to supply power during the worst hours or the worst days of the year because the batteries can handle it, then that makes it much easier for them to give you power.
所以這就是為什麼 SpaceX 為資料中心買了那麼多 Megapack。其實主要是用來在訓練時把功率波動平滑化。——另外也有助於透過——從電網取得更多電力:如果你告訴公用事業公司,他們在一年中最尖峰的幾個小時或最糟的幾天不需要供電,因為電池可以扛住,那他們就更容易給你供電。
In fact, I mean, probably the best way to scale total energy production in the United States is simply using batteries because there's, I think, around 1.2 or 1.3 terawatts of power production in the US, but the average power usage is only 0.5 terawatt. So you've got 2.5 times as much power generation as the average usage. That means you could potentially double the energy output in the United States just with batteries. So really, we see demand for Megapack being very, very high in the future.
事實上,我的意思是,也許在美國擴大全國總發電量最好的方式就是使用電池,因為美國大約有 1.2 或 1.3 太瓦的發電能力,但平均用電量只有 0.5 太瓦。所以你的發電能力大約是平均用電的 2.5 倍。這意味著你可能只靠電池就能把美國的能源輸出翻倍。所以我們確實看到未來對 Megapack 的需求會非常、非常高。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Alright. That is all the time we have for today for Q&A. We appreciate everyone's questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much.
好的。今天的問答時間就到這裡。感謝大家的提問,我們期待下個季度再與各位交流。非常感謝。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking
Alright. Thanks everyone.
好的。謝謝大家。