特斯拉 (TSLA) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q4 2025 營收與毛利率顯著提升,總體毛利率達 20.1%,創近兩年新高;能源事業全年營收達 128 億美元,年增 26.6%;汽車毛利率(不含碳權)由 15.4% 升至 17.9%,但交付量季減 16%
    • 2026 年 CapEx 指引大幅上修至超過 200 億美元,遠高於去年,主因為六大新廠(含 Optimus、Cybercab、Semi、AI 計算等)投資,並預告未來還有太陽能與半導體廠投資計畫
    • 市場反應未於逐字稿中揭露
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • FSD(全自動駕駛)付費用戶達 110 萬,70% 為一次性購買,未來將全面轉向訂閱制
      • Robotaxi 與 Cybercab 預計 2026 年開始量產,長期產量將超越現有車型總和,推動運輸即服務(TaaS)新商業模式
      • Optimus 機器人將於 Fremont 廠區規劃百萬台年產能,Optimus 3 版本即將亮相,長期有望顯著提升美國 GDP
      • 能源事業(Megapack、Powerwall)持續高成長,全球需求強勁,2025 年營收年增 26.6%,未來將推出 Megapack 3 與 Megablock
    • 風險:
      • 電池產能(特別是 4680 電池)仍為全球生產瓶頸,需持續優化供應鏈
      • 能源事業面臨低價競爭、政策不確定性與關稅壓力,預期毛利率受壓
      • AI 晶片與記憶體未來三年供應無虞,但三年後將受限於供應商產能與地緣政治風險,需自建 TeraFab 晶圓廠以降低風險
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 汽車毛利率(不含碳權):由 15.4% 升至 17.9%,主因區域組合優化
    • FSD 付費用戶:全球達 110 萬,70% 為一次性購買,未來轉向訂閱制
    • 能源事業營收:2025 年達 128 億美元,年增 26.6%
    • 能源事業毛利創新高,部署量再創紀錄
    • 總體毛利率:20.1%,為兩年來新高
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年 CapEx 預估超過 200 億美元,遠高於 2025 年(未含太陽能與半導體廠投資)
    • 能源事業預期部署持續成長,但毛利率將受壓
    • 汽車事業短期毛利率受 FSD 訂閱模式轉換影響
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 2026 年 CapEx 大幅提升至 200 億美元以上,主要投資項目為何?是否為一次性?資金來源如何?
      A: 主要投資於六大新廠(含 Optimus、Cybercab、Semi、AI 計算等),並擴充現有廠區產能。未來還有太陽能與半導體廠計畫。這是進入新一輪投資週期,部分屬於基礎建設型投資,週期較長。資金來源以現有 440 億美元現金為主,Robotaxi 車隊可透過銀行融資,基礎建設則視情況考慮舉債。
    • Q: xAI 投資與 Tesla 的協同效益為何?Grok 如何應用於 Tesla?
      A: xAI 投資是 Master Plan IV 的一環,Grok 已應用於 Tesla 車輛。未來將協助管理大規模自駕車隊與 Optimus 機器人,提升營運效率。投資也是回應股東建議。
    • Q: AI 晶片與記憶體供應是否有短期瓶頸?如有,如何因應?
      A: 目前 Tesla AI 在記憶體效率上領先業界一個數量級,三年內供應無虞。三年後若供應商產能不足或遇地緣政治風險,將自建 TeraFab 晶圓廠以確保供應。
    • Q: 中國人形機器人競爭者崛起,Optimus 的長期競爭優勢為何?
      A: 中國在 AI 與製造規模上是最強競爭對手,但 Tesla 在真實世界 AI、電機機構設計(特別是手部)、大規模生產三大關鍵領域具備領先優勢。
    • Q: R&D 支出規劃與各硬體(電池、晶片、記憶體)協同效益?
      A: 目標是確保自駕車與機器人能大規模量產,並降低地緣政治風險。Tesla 必須自建電池、AI 晶片、精煉廠等關鍵設施,確保供應鏈安全與技術領先。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Tesla's fourth-quarter 2025 Q&A webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, Head of Investor Relations. I'm joined today by Elon Musk; Vaibhav Taneja; and a number of other executives.

    大家下午好。歡迎參加特斯拉2025年第四季問答網直播。我是投資人關係主管崔維斯‧阿克塞爾羅德。今天和我一起的有伊隆·馬斯克、瓦伊巴夫·塔內賈以及其他一些高階主管。

  • Our Q4 results were announced at about 3:00 PM Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

    我們的第四季業績已於美國中部時間下午 3 點左右在更新文件中公佈,該文件與本次網路直播的連結相同。

  • During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Event Instructions)

    在本次電話會議中,我們將討論我們的業務前景並發表前瞻性聲明。這些評論是基於我們截至目前為止的預測和預期。由於許多風險和不確定因素,實際事件或結果可能與預期有重大差異,包括我們在最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的那些風險和不確定因素。(活動須知)

  • Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

    在正式進入問答環節之前,伊隆先發表一些開場白。埃隆?

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Thanks, Travis. We've updated the Tesla mission to amazing abundance. This is intended to send a message of optimism about the future, like we're most likely headed to an exciting, amazing era of abundance.

    謝謝你,崔維斯。我們已將特斯拉的使命更新為驚人的富足。這意在傳達對未來樂觀的訊息,彷彿我們即將迎來一個令人興奮、令人驚嘆的富足時代。

  • I think with the advent or with continued growth of AI and robotics, I think we actually are headed to a future of universal high income; not universal basic income but universal high income. There's going to be a lot of change along the way but that is what I see as the most likely outcome. I think that makes sense to update Tesla's mission to reflect that goal.

    我認為隨著人工智慧和機器人技術的出現或持續發展,我們實際上正在走向全民高收入的未來;不是全民基本收入,而是全民高收入。接下來肯定會有很多變化,但我認為這是最有可能的結果。我認為更新特斯拉的使命以反映這一目標是合理的。

  • Obviously, along that way, we're going to keep improving safety, driving down the cost of goods, getting people access to anything they need without compromise and still making sure that the environment is great, nature is great, and people can have whatever they want, which seems like probably the best future.

    顯然,在這個過程中,我們將不斷提高安全性,降低商品成本,讓人們在不妥協的情況下獲得他們所需的一切,同時確保環境良好,自然良好,人們可以擁有他們想要的一切,這似乎是最好的未來。

  • I'm open to other ideas. But it sounds like, if you could say, what is the best future you could possibly imagine? I guess It would be that everyone can have whatever they want, including amazing medical care but we still keep the beauty of nature and Earth. I think that's probably the best outcome.

    我樂於接受其他想法。但聽起來,如果你可以暢所欲言,你所能想的最好的未來是什麼樣的呢?我想,理想狀態應該是每個人都能擁有自己想要的一切,包括一流的醫療保健,但我們仍然能夠保留大自然和地球的美麗。我認為這可能是最好的結果了。

  • We're seeing, obviously, the first steps along that way this year for Tesla, first major steps as we increase vehicle autonomy and begin to produce Optimus robots at scale. We're making very, very big investments. This is going to be very big CapEx year as Vaibhav will get into. That is deliberate because we're making big investments for an epic future.

    顯然,我們今年看到了特斯拉在這方面邁出的第一步,隨著我們提高車輛自動駕駛能力並開始大規模生產 Optimus 機器人,邁出了重要的第一步。我們正在進行非常非常大的投資。今年將是Vaibhav投入巨額資本支出的一年。這是有意為之,因為我們正在為美好的未來進行巨額投資。

  • I think all these investments make a lot of sense. We'll continue to make sure that when we do spend capital, it is spent very efficiently. But it's a lot of things: major investments in batteries and the entire supply chain of batteries. We're also going to be significant manufacturers of solar cells. We're making massive investments in AI jobs.

    我認為這些投資都很有意義。我們將繼續確保每一分每一毫的資金都能高效利用。但這其中包含許多面向:對電池及其整個供應鏈的大量投資。我們也將成為太陽能電池的重要生產商。我們正在對人工智慧相關工作進行大規模投資。

  • But I think these all make a ton of strategic sense. And then, I have like one -- it's not exactly bad news but it's a -- it's time to basically bring the Model S and X programs to an end with an honorable discharge because we're really moving into a future that is based on autonomy. And so if you're interested in buying a Model S and X, now would be the time to order it because we expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next quarter.

    但我認為這些都具有很高的戰略意義。然後,我還有一件事——這不算是壞消息,但——是時候讓 Model S 和 Model X 專案光榮地結束了,因為我們真的要邁向一個基於自動駕駛的未來。因此,如果您有興趣購買 Model S 和 Model X,現在就是訂購的最佳時機,因為我們預計下個季度將逐步減少 Model S 和 Model X 的生產,並基本上停止 Model S 和 Model X 的生產。

  • We'll obviously continue to support the Model S and X programs for as long as people have the vehicles. But we're going to take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Optimus factory, with the long-term goal of having a million units a year of Optimus robots in the current S, X space in Fremont.

    只要人們還擁有這些車輛,我們顯然會繼續支持 Model S 和 Model X 計畫。但是,我們將把弗里蒙特工廠的 Model S 和 Model X 生產空間改造成 Optimus 工廠,長期目標是在弗里蒙特目前的 Model S 和 Model X 生產空間內每年生產一百萬台 Optimus 機器人。

  • That is slightly sad. But it is time to bring the S, X programs to an end and shift -- really, it's part of our overall shift to an autonomous future. As my profile picture on X said for a few months there: The future is autonomous.

    這有點令人難過。但現在是時候結束 S、X 專案並進行轉型了——實際上,這是我們向自動駕駛未來整體轉型的一部分。正如我在 X 上的頭像幾個月前所說:未來是自動化的。

  • And so, let's say, with respect to Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi, people are obviously following with very close attention the progress of FSD. You can experience it for yourself. If you've got a Tesla, you notice with every software update, the car gets better and better at autonomy.

    因此,就完全自動駕駛和機器人計程車而言,人們顯然非常密切地關注著 FSD 的發展。你可以親自體驗一下。如果你擁有一輛特斯拉,你會注意到,隨著每次軟體更新,汽車的自動駕駛能力都會越來越好。

  • Anyway, we were able to do our first rides with no safety monitor in the car in Austin. These are paid rides. These are just randomly selected paid rides with no safety monitor. I think as of maybe yesterday or so, we actually don't -- we don't even have a [HS] car or anything like that. So these are just cars with no people in them. No one's following the car in Austin.

    總之,我們在奧斯汀第一次實現了沒有安全監護人員陪同的乘車出行。這些都是收費乘車項目。這些都是隨機選擇的付費乘車服務,沒有安全監控。我想大概從昨天開始,我們實際上就沒有了——我們甚至連一輛[HS]車或類似的東西都沒有。所以這些只是空車。在奧斯汀,沒有人追蹤這輛車。

  • We obviously are being very cautious about this because we want to have no injuries or serious accidents along the way. So I think it makes sense to be very cautious. But you'll see the amount of autonomy increase dramatically, I think, every month, essentially.

    我們顯然對此非常謹慎,因為我們希望在此過程中不會發生任何人員傷亡或嚴重事故。所以我認為謹慎行事是明智之舉。但我認為,你會看到自主權的程度基本上每個月都會大幅增加。

  • And then, there will also be an opportunity -- something we've talked about for a long time -- for existing owners of Teslas to add or subtract their cars to the fleet, kind of like how Airbnb works, where you can add or subtract your house to the Airbnb inventory.

    此外,特斯拉現有車主還將有機會(我們已經討論過很長時間了)將他們的車輛添加到車隊或從車隊中移除,有點像 Airbnb 的運作方式,你可以將你的房子添加到 Airbnb 的房源列表中或從中移除。

  • I think, probably, the value of the Tesla, the partial -- people adding or subtracting the cost of Tesla for autonomous fleet, it's probably a little underweighted by a lot of people because we've got millions of cars with AI4 that can do this.

    我認為,特斯拉的價值,或者說部分價值——人們在計算特斯拉自動駕駛車隊的成本時,可能低估了特斯拉的價值,因為我們有數百萬輛配備 AI4 的汽車可以做到這一點。

  • It might potentially -- I think it will provide an opportunity for a lot of customers to earn more by lending their car to the fleet than their lease cost to Tesla, which is -- it is like if you get in that scenario, you basically get paid to own a Tesla. It's quite a good scenario.

    我認為這可能會——我認為這將為許多客戶提供一個機會,讓他們透過將自己的汽車借給車隊來賺取比向特斯拉租賃成本更高的收入,也就是說——如果你處於這種情況,你基本上就是因為擁有一輛特斯拉而獲得報酬。這是一個相當不錯的方案。

  • We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably -- I don't know -- somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval. A big factor would be if there's some federal pre-emption for autonomous vehicles.

    我們預計到今年年底,美國大約四分之一到一半的地區將擁有完全自動駕駛汽車,具體數字我不太確定,但這取決於監管部門的批准。一個重要因素是聯邦政府是否會對自動駕駛汽車實施優先權政策。

  • In the absence of that, you have to go on a city-by-city or state-by-state basis. But, nonetheless, even if it is city by city, state by state, we expect to be in -- I don't know -- dozens of cities, dozens of major cities, by the end of the year.

    如果沒有這樣的系統,你就只能逐個城市或逐州地進行操作了。但是,即便要一個城市一個城市、一個州一個州地推進,我們預計到今年年底,我們將進入——我不知道——幾十個城市,幾十個主要城市。

  • With respect to Energy, the Tesla Energy team has done incredible work. The growth rate on that is continuing to be very strong. We're building more manufacturing capacity and expect that Energy will have very high growth for, really, as far into the future as we can imagine.

    在能源領域,特斯拉能源團隊做出了令人矚目的貢獻。該領域的成長率依然非常強勁。我們正在建立更多的生產能力,並預計能源產業在未來很長一段時間內都將保持高速成長。

  • The solar opportunity is underestimated. We think the best way to add significant capability to the grid -- or Energy to the grid, let's say, in powering AI data centers, is solar and batteries on Earth and solar in space. That's why we're going to work towards getting 100 gigawatts a year of solar cell production, integrating across the entire supply chain from raw materials to already-finished solar panels.

    太陽能的潛力被低估了。我們認為,為電網增加大量能力(或為電網增加能源,例如為人工智慧資料中心供電)的最佳方法是在地球上使用太陽能和電池,以及在太空中使用太陽能。因此,我們將努力實現每年100吉瓦的太陽能電池產量,並整合從原料到成品太陽能板的整個供應鏈。

  • Maybe a bit more about Optimus: We'll probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people. It's an incredibly capable robot. As I mentioned, we are replacing the S, X line in Fremont with a million-unit-per-year line of Optimus.

    關於擎天柱,或許可以透露更多:我們可能會在幾個月後發布擎天柱3。我覺得這會讓人感到非常驚訝。它是一款功能極為強大的機器人。正如我之前提到的,我們正在弗里蒙特用年產百萬台的Optimus生產線取代S、X生產線。

  • Now, because it is a completely new supply chain, it's just it's a -- there's really nothing from the existing supply chain that exists in Optimus. Everything is designed from physics-first principles. That means the normal S-curve of manufacturing ramp will be longer for Optimus than it is for products that have at least some portion of an existing supply chain.

    現在,因為這是一個全新的供應鏈,Optimus 中實際上沒有任何來自現有供應鏈的東西。一切都按照物理學原理設計。這意味著,對於 Optimus 而言,正常的生產爬坡 S 曲線將比那些至少有一部分現有供應鏈的產品要長。

  • Like, when everything's new, the production rate will be proportionate to the least lucky, least confident, part of the entire supply chain. If there's 10,000 things that need to go right, it only takes one to be slowed to lag that. So it will be a stretched out S-curve but I'm confident that we'll get to a million units a year in Fremont of Optimus 3.

    就像當一切都是新的一樣,生產力將與整個供應鏈中最不幸運、最缺乏信心的環節成正比。如果有 10,000 件事需要順利進行,只要其中一件出了問題,就會導致整體進度落後。所以這將是一條拉長的 S 形曲線,但我相信我們在弗里蒙特工廠每年能達到 Optimus 3 一百萬台的產量。

  • Optimus 3, really, will be a general-purpose robot that can learn by observing human behavior. You can demonstrate a task or, literally, verbally describe a task or show it a task, even show it a video, and it will be able to do that task. So it's going to be a very capable robot.

    Optimus 3 實際上將是一款通用機器人,它可以透過觀察人類行為來學習。你可以向它演示一項任務,或者用語言描述一項任務,或者向它展示一項任務,甚至向它播放一段視頻,它就能完成這項任務。所以它將是一款功能非常強大的機器人。

  • I think, long-term, Optimus will have a very significant impact on the US GDP. Like, it will actually move the needle on US GDP significantly. In conclusion, there's still obviously many who doubt our ambitions for creating amazing abundance but we're confident it can be done and that we're making the right moves technologically to ensure that it does.

    我認為,從長遠來看,Optimus 將對美國 GDP 產生非常顯著的影響。它實際上會對美國GDP產生顯著影響。總之,顯然還有很多人懷疑我們創造巨大財富的雄心壯志,但我們有信心能夠實現這一目標,並且我們正在採取正確的技術措施來確保實現這一目標。

  • Tesla's obviously never been a company to shy away from solving some of the hardest problems. I think that's how you build value in a company: you solve hard problems. It's, like, I don't know how you create value by solving easy problems.

    特斯拉顯然從來都不是一家迴避解決最棘手問題的公司。我認為這就是為公司創造價值的方式:解決難題。我不太明白,解決簡單的問題如何創造價值。

  • There's a lot of hard problems that the Tesla team is going to solve. But it's an incredibly talented, hardworking team. I'd like to thank, actually, everyone at Tesla for their incredible hard work. It's an honor to work with such a talented group.

    特斯拉團隊將要解決許多難題。但這支團隊才華洋溢,工作勤奮。實際上,我要感謝特斯拉的每一位員工,感謝他們付出的辛勤努力。能與如此優秀的團隊共事,我深感榮幸。

  • So thank you to everyone who is supporting this mission. The future is more exciting than you can imagine.

    所以,感謝所有支持這項任務的人。未來比你想像的還要精彩。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Fantastic. Thank you so much, Elon.

    極好的。非常感謝你,伊隆。

  • Next, we have some remarks from Vaibhav.

    接下來,我們聽聽 Vaibhav 的一些看法。

  • Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

    Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Travis. Q4 of '25 was an interesting quarter in a couple of respects: On the Autos front, while in Q3 we saw a surge in US demand before the IRA consumer credit lift, pulling in some demand from Q4. In other parts of the world, we saw increase in demand, leading to record deliveries in smaller countries like Malaysia, Norway, Poland, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan, while continued strength in the rest of APAC and EMEA. We, therefore, entered 2025 with a bigger backlog than in recent years. Note that none of these countries have the latest version of FSD (Supervised) available yet.

    謝謝你,崔維斯。2025 年第四季在幾個方面都很有趣:在汽車方面,雖然在第三季度我們看到美國需求激增,但在 IRA 消費者信貸上調之前,第四季度出現了一些需求。在世界其他地區,我們看到需求增加,導致馬來西亞、挪威、波蘭、沙烏地阿拉伯和台灣等較小國家的交付量創下紀錄,而亞太和歐洲、中東及非洲其他地區的交付量也保持強勁。因此,進入 2025 年時,我們的積壓訂單比近年來都要多。請注意,這些國家目前都還沒有最新版本的FSD(受監管版)。

  • On the Storage front, we had yet another record in terms of deployments. I would like to thank our customers in Tesla in continuing this momentum.

    在儲存方面,我們的部署數量再次創下新紀錄。我要感謝特斯拉的客戶們,是你們的付出讓這股動能得以延續。

  • On the Automotive margins front, Automotive margins, excluding credits, improved sequentially from 15.4% to 17.9%. Automotive gross profit was flat sequentially despite 16% lower deliveries, primarily due to regional mix, as we had proportionately more deliveries in APAC and EMEA.

    在汽車業務利潤率方面,不計信貸的汽車業務利潤率較上季從 15.4% 提高到 17.9%。儘管交付量下降了 16%,但汽車業務毛利環比持平,這主要是由於區域結構的變化,因為我們在亞太地區和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的交付量比例較高。

  • As we look to 2026, with the progress that has been made with autonomy, our focus is on ramping production at all our factories. Our biggest constraint globally continues to be on the battery pack front. While our teams have been creative in trying to resolve the situation by now putting 4680 cells in non-structural packs, we continue to iterate, improving things from here on.

    展望 2026 年,隨著自動駕駛技術取得進展,我們的重點是提高所有工廠的產量。我們在全球範圍內面臨的最大限制仍然是電池組方面。雖然我們的團隊已經發揮創造力,嘗試透過將 4680 個電池放入非結構性包裝中來解決這個問題,但我們將繼續迭代,從現在開始改進。

  • FSD adoption continued to improve in the quarter, reaching nearly 1.1 million paid customers globally. Of these, nearly 70 % were upfront purchases. It is important to note that beginning this quarter, we are transitioning fully to a subscription-based model for FSD. Therefore, net additions to this figure will primarily be via subscription model and, in the short term, will impact Automotive margins.

    本季 FSD 的普及率持續提高,全球付費用戶接近 110 萬人。其中近 70% 為預付購買。值得注意的是,從本季開始,我們將全面過渡到基於訂閱的FSD模式。因此,這一數字的淨成長將主要透過訂閱模式實現,並且在短期內將對汽車產業的利潤率產生影響。

  • On the Energy front, we achieved yet another record in terms of gross profit for the quarter and ended the year with nearly $12.8 billion in revenue, a 26.6% year-over-year growth. This was the result of high deployments in all regions and continued strength and demand for both Megapack and Powerwall.

    在能源方面,我們本季毛利再創佳績,全年營收接近 128 億美元,年增 26.6%。這是由於所有地區的高部署量以及對 Megapack 和 Powerwall 的持續強勁需求所致。

  • As we look at 2026, our backlog remains strong, well diversified globally and we expect increasing deployments with the launch of Megapack 3 and Megablock. However, we expect margin compression from the increased low-cost competition, impacts to market from policy uncertainty, and the cost of tariffs.

    展望 2026 年,我們的積壓訂單依然強勁,在全球範圍內分佈廣泛,我們預計隨著 Megapack 3 和 Megablock 的推出,部署量將會增加。然而,我們預期低成本競爭加劇、政策不確定性對市場的影響以及關稅成本將導致利潤率下降。

  • Services and Others' margin declined from 10.5 % to 8.8%, primarily from higher employee-related costs for service centers, as we start preparing for the ramp in activity from the growth in the fleet size. We did see a momentum in margin. We did see an improvement in margin from our Supercharger business, which is included within Services and Other.

    服務及其他業務的利潤率從 10.5% 下降到 8.8%,主要是由於服務中心的員工相關成本增加,因為我們開始為車隊規模成長帶來的業務量增加做準備。我們確實看到了利潤率的成長動能。我們的超級充電樁業務利潤率確實有所提高,該業務包含在「服務及其他」類別中。

  • Additionally, note that our Robotaxi business-related costs, while not material, are also included within this. Given that we're still in the early phase of our fleet deployment and are still doing a lot of validation testing, the revenue and cost per mile metrics are not meaningful to discuss at the moment.

    此外,請注意,雖然金額不大,但我們與 Robotaxi 業務相關的成本也包含在內。鑑於我們仍處於車隊部署的早期階段,並且仍在進行大量的驗證測試,目前討論每英里收入和成本指標尚無意義。

  • Then on total gross margin front, we ended the quarter with over 20.1%, something which we haven't achieved for the last two years. This improvement came despite the impact of lower fixed-cost absorption and the impact of tariffs, which were in excess of $500 million in Q4.

    在毛利率方面,我們本季毛利率超過 20.1%,這是我們過去兩年都沒有達到的水平。儘管固定成本吸收減少以及關稅的影響(第四季超過 5 億美元),但這項改善仍然發生。

  • Operating expenses increased sequentially, primarily from increased stock-based compensation for employees and as we started recording charges for one operational milestone under our 2025 CEO Performance Award that was deemed to be probable over the (inaudible).

    營運費用環比成長,主要原因是員工股票選擇權激勵增加,以及我們開始計入一項根據2025年CEO績效獎勵計畫確定的、預計在2025年內可能實現的營運里程碑的費用。(聽不清楚)

  • Additionally, our spend on AI-related initiatives and new products like Cybercab, Semi, Optimus, and Megapack, et cetera, continues to be on elevated levels. We expect this trend to continue for the full-year 2026.

    此外,我們在人工智慧相關計劃和新產品(如 Cyber​​cab、Semi、Optimus 和 Megapack 等)上的支出也持續保持在較高水準。我們預計這一趨勢將在2026年全年持續。

  • Net income was negatively impacted from mark-to-market charges on a Bitcoin holding, which depreciated 23% as compared to the last quarter and the impact of unfavorable impact of FX, primarily from our large intercompany (inaudible).

    淨利潤受到比特幣持有量按市值計價費用的負面影響,比特幣持有量較上季度貶值了 23%,此外,外匯匯率的不利影響(主要來自我們的大額公司間交易)也造成了負面影響。(聽不清楚)

  • On the free cash flow front, we ended up at $1.4 billion. We did end up CapEx being slightly below our previous guidance of $9 billion. But, like, as Elon already mentioned, this year is going to be a huge investment year from a CapEx perspective. At the moment, we're expecting that CapEx would be in excess of $20 billion.

    在自由現金流方面,我們最終達到了 14 億美元。最終資本支出略低於我們先前預期的90億美元。但是,正如伊隆已經提到的那樣,從資本支出角度來看,今年將是投資金額龐大的一年。目前,我們預計資本支出將超過 200 億美元。

  • We'll be paying for six factories namely: the refinery, LFP factories, Cybercab, Semi, a new Mega factory, the Optimus factory. On top of it, we will also be spending money for building our AI compute infrastructure. We will continue investing in our existing factories to build more capacity; and then, also, the related infrastructure, along with it. We'll also further expand our fleet of Robotaxi and Optimus.

    我們將為六家工廠買單,分別是:煉油廠、磷酸鐵鋰電池廠、Cyber​​cab工廠、Semi工廠、一家新的Mega工廠和Optimus工廠。除此之外,我們也將投入資金建置人工智慧運算基礎設施。我們將繼續投資現有工廠,以提高產能;同時,也將投資興建相關的基礎設施。我們也將進一步擴大我們的Robotaxi和Optimus車隊規模。

  • While this may seem a lot, we believe this is the right strategy to position the company for the next era. We'll make such investments, as Elon mentioned, in a very capital-efficient manner. Note that this does not include potential investments in solar cell manufacturing or our TeraFab, as we're still in early phase. We plan to provide an update in future quarters.

    雖然這看起來很多,但我們相信這是讓公司為下一個時代做好準備的正確策略。正如埃隆所說,我們將以非常節約資本的方式進行此類投資。請注意,這不包括對太陽能電池製造或我們的 TeraFab 項目的潛在投資,因為我們仍處於早期階段。我們計劃在未來幾季提供最新進展報告。

  • We're starting not the next chapter but a new book on the progression of this company. 2026 year would be when all of this began. While, at times, it feels daunting, it is going to be the most exciting change in Tesla's history. We could not have even dreamed of embarking on this journey without the support of our customers and our investors.

    我們開啟的不是下一個篇章,而是一本關於這家公司發展歷程的新書。這一切將從2026年開始。雖然有時會感到畏懼,但這將是特斯拉史上最令人興奮的變革。如果沒有客戶和投資人的支持,我們連想都不敢想能踏上這段旅程。

  • Thanks for, again, showing the confidence in us. Let's get ready for a future of amazing abundance. Thanks.

    再次感謝您對我們的信任。讓我們為充滿無限富足的未來做好準備。謝謝。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Great. Thank you very much, Vaibhav.

    偉大的。非常感謝你,Vaibhav。

  • Now, we're going to head over to investor questions. As always, we will start with questions from say.com.

    現在,我們將進入投資者提問環節。和往常一樣,我們將首先回答來自 say.com 的問題。

  • The first question is: Today, there are approximately 90 million cars sold globally each year. Does Tesla have a view, based on its Robotaxi ambition, what this number will be in 5 or 10 years? How does this impact Tesla's EV strategy to have more models?

    第一個問題是:如今,全球每年約售出9,000萬輛汽車。基於特斯拉的自動駕駛計程車計劃,它對未來 5 年或 10 年的這個數字有何展望?這會對特斯拉推出更多車型的電動車策略產生什麼影響?

  • Lars Moravy - Vice President - Vehicle Engineering

    Lars Moravy - Vice President - Vehicle Engineering

  • Yeah. Thanks, Travis. As Elon said, the future is autonomous. Obviously, autonomy and Cybercab are going to change the global market size and mix quite significantly. I think that's quite obvious.

    是的。謝謝你,崔維斯。正如埃隆所說,未來是自動駕駛的。顯然,自動駕駛和網路駕駛技術將顯著改變全球市場規模和結構。我覺得很明顯。

  • General transportation is going to be better served by autonomy, as it will be safer and cheaper. Over 90 % of vehicle miles traveled are with two or less passengers now, which is why we designed Cybercab that way.

    自動駕駛將更好地服務公共交通,因為它更安全、更便宜。現在超過 90% 的車輛行駛里程都是由兩名或兩名以下乘客乘坐的,這就是我們設計 Cyber​​cab 的原因。

  • In this new autonomous market, we, at Tesla, have the advantage of efficiency, cost, and manufacturing at scale that really no one else has. We have built that over the last decades. We believe that that segment that we are creating will grow millions, year over year.

    在這個全新的自動駕駛市場中,特斯拉擁有其他任何公司都無法比擬的效率、成本和規模化生產優勢。這是我們在過去幾十年逐步建立起來的。我們相信,我們正在創建的這個細分市場將逐年成長數百萬。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Just to add to what Lars said there, the point that Lars made, which is that 90% of miles driven are with one or two passengers -- or one or two occupants, essentially -- is a very important one because that implies that the Cybercab, which is a dedicated two-seater, dedicated Robotaxi -- it's a little confusing with the terms, Robotaxi and Cybercab -- sorry about the confusion.

    補充一下 Lars 剛才所說的,Lars 提出的觀點,即 90% 的行駛里程都是載著一到兩名乘客(或者說基本上是一到兩名乘員),這一點非常重要,因為這意味著 Cyber​​cab(一種專用的雙座專用機器人出租車)——Robotaxi 和 Cyber​​cab 這有點令人困惑——很抱歉——很抱歉造成了混淆。

  • In fact, in some states, we're not allowed to use the word cab or taxi so it's going to get even more strange. It's going to be, like, Cybervehicle or something, Cybercar.

    事實上,在某些州,我們甚至不允許使用「計程車」或「cab」這個詞,所以情況會變得更加奇怪。它可能會被稱為“賽博車輛”或“賽博汽車”之類的。

  • But the Cybercab, which is a specific vehicle model that we're making, does not have a steering wheel or pedals. This is clearly -- there's no fallback mechanism here. This car either drives itself or it does not drive.

    但是,我們正在生產的特定車型 Cyber​​cab 沒有方向盤或踏板。很明顯——這裡沒有任何備用機制。這輛車要嘛能自動駕駛,要嘛就開不了。

  • We expect to start production in April. As always, the production rate is an S-curve so it starts off very slowly and then, grows exponentially. Then you hit the linear and then, ultimately, asymptotes at what your target volume is.

    我們預計將於四月開始生產。與以往一樣,生產率呈 S 形曲線,起初增長非常緩慢,然後呈指數級增長。然後你會遇到線性成長,最終,成長曲線會漸近線達到你的目標銷售量。

  • But we would expect, over time, to make far more Cybercabs than all of our other vehicles combined. Given that 90% of distance driven or distance being -- distance traveled exactly, no longer driving -- is one or two people, I think it's, like, 80% is just one. It would mean that, long-term, Cybercab -- we would make several times more Cybercabs per year than all of our other vehicles combined.

    但我們預計,隨著時間的推移,Cyber​​cab 的產量將遠遠超過我們所有其他車輛的總和。考慮到行駛距離(或實際行駛距離,不再是駕駛距離)的 90% 是由一兩個人完成的,我認為,大概有 80% 是由一個人完成的。這意味著,從長遠來看,Cyber​​cab 的年產量將比我們所有其他車輛的總產量高出好幾倍。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Great. Thank you so much. The next question, a bit related: Are there still plans to launch new models to address different price segments and vehicle types which could materially expand the TAM for Tesla?

    偉大的。太感謝了。下一個問題與此有點相關:特斯拉是否仍有計劃推出新車型,以滿足不同的價格區間和車輛類型,從而大幅擴大其潛在市場規模?

  • Lars Moravy - Vice President - Vehicle Engineering

    Lars Moravy - Vice President - Vehicle Engineering

  • Yeah. To further on what we were just talking about, we've launched our least expensive models ever over the last few months and are continuing to expand those models globally. Over the last decade, we have continually brought down the cost of our vehicles without sacrificing range, performance, or premiumness.

    是的。承接我們剛才的話題,在過去的幾個月裡,我們推出了有史以來價格最低的車型,並且正在繼續在全球推廣這些車型。過去十年,我們在不犧牲續航里程、性能或品質的前提下,不斷降低車輛成本。

  • We will continue to do that, as Vaibhav said, investing in our factories. But these are all trade-offs of where we spend our time or money.

    正如 Vaibhav 所說,我們將繼續投資我們的工廠。但這些都是我們在時間和金錢上需要權衡取捨的問題。

  • To Elon's point just now, with Cybercab coming, we are aiming to bring that Tesla premium-ride experience to our largest market yet. It could be 5 times or 10 times our current levels of production.

    正如伊隆剛才所說,隨著 Cyber​​cab 的推出,我們的目標是將特斯拉的優質乘車體驗帶到我們迄今為止最大的市場。產量可能是我們目前的 5 倍或 10 倍。

  • This new autonomous market, you have to start thinking about us as moving to providing Transportation-as-a-Service more than the total addressable market for the purchased vehicles alone.

    在這個全新的自動駕駛市場中,你必須開始將我們視為提供交通即服務(TaaS)的供應商,而不僅僅是購買車輛的潛在市場。

  • Of course, we do have plans to have Robotaxis in various shapes and sizes but, obviously, Cybercab will be the grand majority of that volume.

    當然,我們確實有計劃推出各種形狀和尺寸的無人駕駛計程車,但很顯然,網路計程車將佔據絕大部分的市場份額。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Yeah. The vast majority of miles traveled will be autonomous in the future. I would say, probably less than --I'm just guessing but probably less than 5% of miles driven will be where somebody's actually driving the car themselves in the future; maybe as low as 1%.

    是的。未來絕大多數的行駛里程都將由自動駕駛車輛完成。我估計,可能不到——我只是猜測,但未來可能只有不到 5% 的行駛里程是有人親自駕駛的;也許低至 1%。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Great. The next question is: Historically, Tesla has spoken about gross margin per model. Are there standalone gross margin targets for the current models, excluding the benefits for FSD sales?

    偉大的。下一個問題是:特斯拉歷史上曾多次談到每款車型的毛利率。目前車型是否有獨立的毛利率目標(不包括 FSD 銷售帶來的收益)?

  • Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

    Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

  • We've talked about this with the previous two questions but transportation, as we know, is changing. I think we cannot keep applying the same framework from a car sales model to the future -- what we are trying to do. So it has to be looked at more holistically.

    我們在前兩個問題中已經討論過這個問題,但我們都知道,交通運輸正在改變。我認為我們不能繼續將汽車銷售模式的框架應用到我們正在努力實現的未來。所以必須從更全面的角度來看這個問題。

  • In autonomy, software will be the driver for growth from now. As we aim to maximize the global fleet, we have been laser-focused on COGS from our side to make sure -- because that is something which we manage. So we will keep focusing on that.

    在自動駕駛領域,軟體將成為未來發展的驅動力。為了最大限度地擴大全球船隊規模,我們一直非常關注成本控制,以確保——因為這是我們能夠掌控的事情。所以我們會繼續專注於此。

  • But I think we need to look at it from a different dimension.

    但我認為我們需要從另一個角度來看這個問題。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Yeah. Like, the Cybercab -- the whole design of Cybercab was to optimize the fully considered cost per mile of autonomous driving. It's a different design problem than if you're trying to design cars for people who will be driving versus being driven.

    是的。例如,Cyber​​cab——Cyber​​cab 的整個設計目的就是為了優化自動駕駛每英里的綜合成本。這與設計供駕駛員駕駛的汽車和設計供乘客乘坐的汽車是不同的設計問題。

  • So Cybercab is super optimized for minimum cost per mile and, also, for a much higher duty cycle. You would expect Cybercab to be used probably 50 or 60 hours a week instead of the 10 or 11 hours a week that a driven vehicle is used. Typically, people might drive their car for an 1.50 hour a day, on average, so it's like ten hours a week out of a 168.

    因此,Cyber​​cab 針對每英里最低成本進行了超級最佳化,並且也針對更高的使用週期進行了最佳化。預計 Cyber​​cab 每週的使用時間可能達到 50 或 60 小時,而不是像駕駛車輛那樣每週使用 10 或 11 小時。通常情況下,人們平均每天開車 1.5 小時,所以一週 168 小時中,開車大約是 10 小時。

  • But I think an autonomous vehicle is likely to be used probably 5 times as often, which means that you need to design the vehicle for much more wear and tear per unit time and much more resilience. It's more like a commercial truck that's in continuous operation or close to continuous operation. That is how you design an autonomous vehicle.

    但我認為自動駕駛汽車的使用頻率可能會是普通汽車的 5 倍,這意味著你需要設計出單位時間內能夠承受更大磨損、更具韌性的車輛。它更像是一輛持續運行或接近持續運行的商用卡車。這就是設計自動駕駛汽車的方法。

  • And so we will have larger vehicles in the Cybercab in the future that are designed for full autonomy. We've actually shown pictures of this and, in fact, have shown prototypes. So this is not exactly a secret.

    因此,未來我們將推出更大尺寸的 Cyber​​cab 車輛,這些車輛的設計目標是實現完全自動駕駛。我們已經展示過這方面的圖片,事實上,我們也展示過原型。所以這算不上什麼秘密。

  • In fact, we've given people rides in them. We're not keeping this -- hiding this light under a bushel here. It's, like, we're literally saying what we're going to do and have said what we're going to do for a while.

    事實上,我們還用它們載過別人。我們不會把這件事——把這束光——藏起來。就好像,我們一直在明確地表達我們要做什麼,而且我們已經表達了一段時間了。

  • I really think, long-term, the only vehicles that we'll make will be autonomous vehicles, with the exception of the next-generation Roadster, which we're hoping to debut in April, hopefully. It's going be something out of this world.

    我真的認為,從長遠來看,我們只會生產自動駕駛汽車,除了下一代 Roadster,我們希望它能在四月亮相。這將是超乎想像的。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Fantastic. The next question we unfortunately have to skip because it's not related to Tesla. We would like who remind folks use the Say platform to please focus these questions on Tesla.

    極好的。很遺憾,下一個問題我們只能跳過,因為它與特斯拉無關。我們想提醒使用 Say 平台的各位,請將這些問題集中在特斯拉上。

  • With that in mind, we're going to move on to the next question, which is: What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment and personal use on Supervised FSD? The safety and performance of the most recent models -- is it the safety and performance of the most recent models? Or is it people to monitor the Robotaxis in car or remotely? Or is there some other blocker?

    考慮到這一點,我們接下來要討論下一個問題,那就是:目前在監督式 FSD 上增加 Robotaxi 部署和個人使用的瓶頸是什麼?最新車型的安全性和性能——它真的是最新車型的安全性和性能嗎?還是由人來監控車內或遠端的無人駕駛計程車?還是有其他阻礙因素?

  • I don't know, Ashok, if you want to kick off on this one.

    阿肖克,我不知道你是否想就此事展開討論。

  • Ashok Elluswamy - Director - Autopilot Software

    Ashok Elluswamy - Director - Autopilot Software

  • Yeah. We have scaled the Robotaxi service that's available to customers over the last year in order to just learn the scaling problems without having to wait one to supervise.

    是的。過去一年,我們不斷擴大客戶導向的 Robotaxi 服務規模,以便了解規模擴張方面的問題,而無需等待有人監督。

  • Let's get -- two goals: one is to learn as much as possible with the safety monitors; secondly, be laser-focused with the engineering team to solve the unsupervised FSD problem. I think we did both.

    讓我們設定兩個目標:一是盡可能多了解安全監控器;二是與工程團隊一起集中精力解決無監督 FSD 問題。我認為我們兩者都做了。

  • By the end of last year, we had a long tail of issues that we were able to churn through. And then, in the last couple of weeks, we started our unsupervised Robotaxis service to public customers in Austin. I think some customers took rides last week. Also, service continues today without any real cars, something like that.

    到去年年底,我們已經積壓了一大堆問題,但我們都一一解決了。然後,在過去的幾周里,我們開始在奧斯汀為公眾客戶提供無人值守的機器人計程車服務。我認為上週有些顧客乘坐了車輛。此外,如今的服務仍在繼續,只是沒有真正的車輛,諸如此類。

  • Separately, we did scale the fleet size in the Bay Area and in Austin. Through that, we learned issues with charging and other issues that we would have seen once we scale the unsupervised fleet. Both are happening in parallel.

    此外,我們也擴大了灣區和奧斯汀的車隊規模。透過這種方式,我們了解到了充電方面的問題以及其他一些問題,這些問題在我們擴大無人值守車隊規模後就會出現。這兩件事同時發生。

  • A variant of the software that's used for the Robotaxi service was shipped to customers with v14 and customers saw a huge jump in performance. A lot of happy feedback from customers. Since then, we have improved the software significantly, as well.

    用於 Robotaxi 服務的軟體的一個變體版本隨 v14 一起交付給客戶,客戶發現效能有了巨大的提升。收到很多客戶的好評。此後,我們也對軟體進行了大幅改進。

  • Customers will continue to see, with their own software releases, that the software is so good that they're screaming to remove the trial monitoring software because they're bored inside the car too much.

    客戶會繼續透過自己的軟體版本看到,軟體非常好,以至於他們強烈要求移除試用監控軟體,因為他們在車上太無聊了。

  • Lars Moravy - Vice President - Vehicle Engineering

    Lars Moravy - Vice President - Vehicle Engineering

  • Adding to that a little bit, with what Ashok said about learning about our charging and service needs: We're using our vast network of charging and service centers that really only Tesla has in this space to jump-start our infrastructure build-out needs to get ahead of Robotaxi, autonomous vehicle demand.

    補充一點,就像 Ashok 所說的,了解我們的充電和服務需求:我們正在利用我們龐大的充電和服務中心網路(這在特斯拉領域是獨一無二的),來快速啟動我們的基礎設施建設需求,以滿足 Robotaxi 和自動駕駛汽車的需求。

  • We expect that because of this network, we are the only company capable of scaling at the rate that is needed for the tsunami of autonomy that is come.

    我們預計,憑藉這一網絡,我們將是唯一一家能夠以所需速度擴展規模,以應對即將到來的自動駕駛浪潮的公司。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Great. Moving on to the next question: After the unveiling of the Cybertruck, Elon stated that if it didn't sell well, Tesla would build a more conventional-looking pick-up. How practical would it be to create this new design on the Cybertruck architecture? Could it be conveniently built on the existing production lines?

    偉大的。接下來是下一個問題:在 Cyber​​truck 發布之後,埃隆表示,如果 Cyber​​truck 銷售不好,特斯拉將製造一款外觀更傳統的皮卡。在 Cyber​​truck 架構上打造這種新設計有多大可行性?能否利用現有的生產線方便地進行生產?

  • Lars Moravy - Vice President - Vehicle Engineering

    Lars Moravy - Vice President - Vehicle Engineering

  • Actually, in its segment, Cybertruck continues be a leader and is selling more than any other electric truck out there. Our competition continues to pull back.

    事實上,在其細分市場中,Cyber​​truck 繼續保持領先地位,銷量超過市面上任何其他電動卡車。我們的競爭對手持續退縮。

  • But to the question itself, from a line standpoint, we always design our lines to be super flexible. We've built 3 and Y on the same line; we built S and X on the same line, still, showing that we can do that. The Cybertruck line was designed in the same way and is one of our most fully-ready-for-autonomy platforms.

    但就問題本身而言,從線條的角度來看,我們始終將線條設計得非常靈活。我們已經在同一條線上建造了 3 和 Y;我們仍然在同一條線上建立了 S 和 X,這表明我們可以做到這一點。Cyber​​truck 系列的設計方式相同,是我們最成熟的自動駕駛平台之一。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • But, yeah, we will transition the Cybertruck line to just a fully autonomous line. There's obviously a market there for cargo delivery; like you say, localized cargo delivery within a city, within a few hundred miles, something like that. There's a lot of cargo that needs to move locally within a city and an autonomous Cybertruck could be very useful for that.

    是的,我們會將 Cyber​​truck 生產線過渡到完全自動駕駛生產線。顯然那裡有貨物運輸市場;就像你說的,城市內、幾百英里範圍內的本地貨物運輸,諸如此類。城市內有很多貨物需要本地運輸,而自動駕駛的 Cyber​​truck 在這方面可能非常有用。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Great. Moving on to the next question: regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles or operations are they handling? How has their integration impacted efficiency or output?

    偉大的。接下來是下一個問題:關於Optimus,您能否分享一下目前特斯拉工廠中部署並正在執行生產任務的Optimus單元數量?他們具體負責哪些角色或工作?它們的整合對效率或產量產生了哪些影響?

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Well, we are still very much at the early stages of Optimus. It's still in the R&D phase. We have had Optimus do some basic tasks in the factory.

    嗯,我們目前仍處於Optimus計畫的早期階段。目前仍處於研發階段。我們已經讓Optimus在工廠裡執行了一些基本任務。

  • But as we iterate on new versions of Optimus, we deprecate the old versions. It's not in usage in our factories in a material way. It's more so that the robot can learn. We wouldn't expect to have any significant Optimus production volume until, probably, the end of this year.

    但隨著我們不斷迭代推出新版本的 Optimus,舊版本將被棄用。它在我們的工廠中並沒有得到實質的應用。更確切地說,是機器人能夠學習。我們預計Optimus的產量可能要到今年年底才會顯著增加。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Ashok Elluswamy - Director - Autopilot Software

    Ashok Elluswamy - Director - Autopilot Software

  • Optimus Gen 3 is an awesome robot.

    第三代擎天柱是個很棒的機器人。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • It is awesome.

    太棒了。

  • Ashok Elluswamy - Director - Autopilot Software

    Ashok Elluswamy - Director - Autopilot Software

  • Yeah. It's an awesome robot that minimizes any differences. But it looks like a human. People could be easily confused that it's a human.

    是的。它是一款非常棒的機器人,能最大限度地減少任何差異。但它看起來像個人。人們很容易把它誤認為人。

  • This helps our strategy for the AI, too, because you can learn from how humans do these tasks. It's very easy to teach the robot in the same way, as opposed to previous robots.

    這也有助於我們制定人工智慧策略,因為我們可以從人類如何完成這些任務中學習。與之前的機器人相比,用同樣的方法教導這個機器人非常容易。

  • Lars Moravy - Vice President - Vehicle Engineering

    Lars Moravy - Vice President - Vehicle Engineering

  • One thing I should say, there's a lot of news of various companies announcing layoffs and whatnot. But at our Tesla factory in Fremont, we actually expect to increase headcount over time and to significantly increase output from our factories.

    有一點需要說明,最近有很多公司宣布裁員等等的新聞。但在我們位於弗里蒙特的特斯拉工廠,我們預計隨著時間的推移,員工人數將會增加,工廠的產量也將大幅提高。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • We don't have any layoff plans. We expect to actually increase headcount.

    我們沒有任何裁員計劃。我們預計實際員工人數將會增加。

  • Great. The next question to the other autonomy questions, but slightly different: When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?

    偉大的。接下來要問的問題與先前的自主性問題略有不同:FSD 何時才能達到 100% 無監督駕駛?

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Well, it is 100% unsupervised and FSD is 100% unsupervised. We obviously have cars operating with no one in them and no safety monitor and no follow car or anything like that in Austin right now.

    嗯,它是 100% 無監督的,FSD 也是 100% 無監督的。顯然,目前在奧斯汀,有些車輛在行駛時車內無人,也沒有安全監控人員、後勤車輛或其他類似設備。

  • For customers, we're just being very cautious with the roll-out with each successive version, as we prove it out and we make sure that there are no unique issues in particular cities.

    對於客戶而言,我們在每個後續版本的推出過程中都非常謹慎,因為我們必須不斷驗證其有效性,並確保特定城市不會出現任何特殊問題。

  • Sometimes, you get some very difficult intersections. It will be an intersection where a lot of humans have accidents, by the way. There are some pretty nutty intersections where a lot of humans make mistakes and have accidents in various cities. We want to make sure that FSD can handle those unusual intersections.

    有時候,你會遇到一些非常棘手的十字路口。順便說一句,這將是一個交通事故頻繁的十字路口。在一些城市裡,有一些路口設計得非常糟糕,很多人在那裡犯錯並發生事故。我們希望確保FSD能夠處理這些不尋常的交叉路口。

  • If you take LA, for example, where Wilshire and Santa Monica, combined, is, like, there's about 20 traffic lights. People are constantly having accidents there. You want to make sure that FSD can handle unique things in a particular city.

    以洛杉磯為例,威爾希爾大道和聖莫尼卡大道加起來,大概有 20 個紅綠燈。那裡經常發生意外事故。您需要確保 FSD 能夠處理特定城市中的特殊情況。

  • We're actually just being paranoid about safety. With each successful release of FSD, we will reduce the amount of driver monitoring that's needed proportionate to the safety of the FSD build.

    我們其實只是對安全問題過於謹慎了。隨著 FSD 的每次成功發布,我們將根據 FSD 版本的安全性,按比例減少所需的驅動程式監控量。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Great. As it relates to Robotaxi, what has surprised you about the roll-out, so far? We've talked about what's constrained the fleet expansion, to date, but it appears there are 200 vehicles, based on public tracking. Is that something that we can confirm?

    偉大的。就Robotaxi而言,到目前為止,其推廣過程中有哪些方面讓您感到驚訝?我們已經討論過迄今為止限制車隊擴張的因素,但根據公開的追蹤數據,目前似乎有 200 輛車。這一點我們可以確認嗎?

  • Ashok Elluswamy - Director - Autopilot Software

    Ashok Elluswamy - Director - Autopilot Software

  • I wouldn't say there's anything that really surprised us because we are a large fleet. We had all the metrics. There was some surprise. It was just continued work to grind down on the long tail of issues. That's what enabled us to launch the unsupervised service in Austin.

    因為我們的船隊規模龐大,所以沒有什麼真正讓我們感到驚訝的事情發生。我們掌握了所有指標。這其中有些出乎意料。這只是持續不斷地解決一系列遺留問題的工作。正是這一點使我們能夠在奧斯汀推出無人服務。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Yeah. In terms of Robotaxi vehicles carrying paid customers, I think we're well over 500 at this point between the Bay Area and Austin.

    是的。就搭載付費乘客的 Robotaxi 車輛而言,我認為目前從舊金山灣區到奧斯汀,我們已經擁有超過 500 輛。

  • Ashok Elluswamy - Director - Autopilot Software

    Ashok Elluswamy - Director - Autopilot Software

  • Yeah. There's a varying amount of vehicles, depending on the load, but you can have more vehicles during peak times and then, fewer vehicles in the off-hours.

    是的。車輛數量會根據貨物的多寡而變化,尖峰時段車輛較多,而低谷時段車輛較少。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Yeah. This will probably double-every-month type of thing. It's on an exponential curve.

    是的。這大概會是每月翻倍的情況。它呈指數級增長。

  • Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

    Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

  • One other thing people forget is that we've been deliberate on all this in the sense that we have the supporting infrastructure already in place, whether it's service centers, charging. Yes, we'll have to augment as the fleet grows, depending upon the density of where the demand is and whatnot. But it's not something we just stumble upon and we're starting to.

    人們忘記的另一點是,我們在這一切上都是經過深思熟慮的,因為我們已經建立了相應的配套基礎設施,無論是服務中心還是充電設施。是的,隨著船隊的壯大,我們將不得不增加船隻數量,這取決於需求密度等因素。但這並不是我們偶然發現的,我們現在才開始發現。

  • We've been at it for years. Yes, not every city is designed the same way. Same thing: Our infrastructure is also not the same in every city.

    我們已經為此努力多年了。是的,並非每個城市的規劃方式都相同。同樣的情況也發生在其他城市:我們的基礎設施在每個城市都不盡相同。

  • But you have to give us credit that it's been a journey. And like Lars said, if there's some company which can do it, we've already been at it so we should be able to deliver much better.

    但你必須承認,這確實是一段漫長的旅程。正如 Lars 所說,如果有些公司能做到這一點,我們已經開始做了,所以我們應該能夠做得更好。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Great. The next question is about [Chase] cars, which we already covered.

    偉大的。下一個問題是關於[Chase]賽車的,我們已經討論過了。

  • Moving on to the last question: Elon, you've been spending significant personal time on Tesla's chip design. What was the forcing function behind this increased involvement? And do you think external chip sales will represent a significant portion of Tesla's valuation by the end of the decade?

    最後一個問題:伊隆,你一直在投入大量個人時間研究特斯拉的晶片設計。促使這種參與度提升的根本原因是什麼?你認為到本十年末,外部晶片銷售額是否會在特斯拉的估值中佔據相當大的比例?

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Well, I tend to spend time on whatever the most critical issue is for the company. Completing the AI5 chip design and having it be a great chip is arguably the number-one, most critical thing to get done, which is why I'm spending more time on that than currently anything else at Tesla.

    我通常會把時間花在公司面臨的最關鍵的問題上。完成 AI5 晶片的設計並使其成為一款優秀的晶片可以說是最重要的事情,這也是為什麼我目前在特斯拉投入的時間比任何其他事情都多。

  • I spend pretty much every Saturday on this and a chunk of every Tuesday. If I'm spending my Saturdays on something, it's going to be something pretty important.

    我幾乎每個星期六都會花在這上面,每週二也會花一部分時間。如果我利用周六時間做某件事,那一定是件非常重要的事。

  • I do think AI5 will be a very good chip. I feel quite confident about the design, at this point. And then, AI6, which will follow that -- aspirationally would follow that under a year will be yet another big leap beyond AI5. So I feel pretty good about our chip strategy right now. But in terms of selling it outside of Tesla, we first need to make sure we have enough chips for all of our vehicle production and all of our Optimus production.

    我認為AI5將會是一款非常優秀的晶片。目前我對這個設計相當有信心。然後,AI6(理想情況下,它將在不到一年的時間內推出)將是 AI5 的另一個巨大飛躍。所以我覺得我們目前的晶片策略相當不錯。但就向特斯拉以外的市場銷售而言,我們首先需要確保我們有足夠的晶片來滿足我們所有車輛的生產和所有Optimus的生產需求。

  • And then we will actually use the AI5 chips in our data centers. We already used the AI4 chips in our data centers. When we do training, it's a combination of the AI4 chips and NVIDIA hardware, primarily, that we do training with.

    然後我們將在資料中心實際使用 AI5 晶片。我們已經在資料中心使用了AI4晶片。我們進行訓練時,主要採用 AI4 晶片和 NVIDIA 硬體的組合進行訓練。

  • So by the end of the decade, it's like things are changing so fast that it's hard to imagine what happens at the end of the decade. When I look ahead at, say, what's the limiting factor for Tesla's growth if you go, say, three or four years out, I think it actually is chip production. Is there enough AI logic and enough memory, enough RAM for volume?

    所以到了十年末,事物變化如此之快,以至於很難想像十年末會發生什麼。展望未來,比如說,未來三、四年特斯拉成長的限制因素是什麼?我認為實際上是晶片生產。AI邏輯是否足夠,記憶體和RAM是否足夠滿足容量需求?

  • Right now, I see that as being the thing that probably limits our growth in three or four years, which implies that we're not selling chips outside of Tesla because we need them. In fact, I think it's going to make sense.

    目前,我認為這可能會在未來三到四年內限制我們的成長,這意味著我們不向特斯拉以外的市場銷售晶片,因為我們需要它們。事實上,我認為這是合理的。

  • This is definitely going to be a controversial thing. But I think Tesla needs to build a TeraFab. I mentioned this at the Shareholder Meeting. Even when you look at the output of -- the best-case output of all of our key suppliers -- and I'd say, even they're beyond suppliers, they're like strategic partners -- like Samsung, TSMC, and Micron, we say, what's the most you could possibly make? Then, it's not enough.

    這絕對會是一件引發爭議的事情。但我認為特斯拉需要建造一座 TeraFab 工廠。我在股東大會上提到了這件事。即使你查看我們所有主要供應商的最佳產量——而且我認為,即使他們不僅僅是供應商,他們更像是戰略合作夥伴——比如三星、台積電和美光,我們也會問,你們最多能生產多少?然後,這還不夠。

  • I think in order to remove the constraint, the probable constraint in three or four years, we're going to have to build a Tesla TeraFab: a very big fab that includes logic, memory, and packaging, domestically.

    我認為,為了消除未來三、四年內可能的限制,我們必須在國內建造一座特斯拉 TeraFab:一座包含邏輯、儲存和封裝的超大型工廠。

  • That's actually also going to be very important to ensure that we are protected against any geopolitical risks. I think people may be underweighting some of the geopolitical risks that are going to be a major factor in a few years.

    實際上,這對於確保我們免受任何地緣政治風險的影響也至關重要。我認為人們可能低估了一些地緣政治風險,這些風險將在幾年內成為一個重要因素。

  • A lot of people will say, that's crazy. Fabs are really hard. Yes, I know fabs are really hard. I don't think they're easy.

    很多人會說,這太瘋狂了。Fabs真的很難做。是的,我知道製造過程非常困難。我覺得它們並不容易。

  • Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

    Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

  • But we do hard things.

    但我們做難事。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • We do a lot of hard things. We didn't used to have car factories or we didn't used to have battery cell factories or lithium refineries or Megapack factories or all these other things. We figured it out. I think if we don't do the Tesla TeraFab, we're going to be limited by supplier output of chips.

    我們做了很多困難的事。我們以前沒有汽車工廠,也沒有電池工廠、鋰精煉廠、巨型電池包裝廠等等。我們想明白了。我認為,如果我們不採用特斯拉TeraFab技術,我們將受到晶片供應商產量的限制。

  • I think, maybe, memory is an even bigger limiter than AI logic. For example, we have chip supply deals with TSMC in Arizona and Samsung in Texas. But, currently, there are no advanced memory fabs, at scale, in the United States. There are zero; literally zero.

    我認為,或許記憶體比人工智慧邏輯更能限制人工智慧的發展。例如,我們與亞利桑那州的台積電和德克薩斯州的三星都有晶片供應協議。但目前美國還沒有大規模的先進記憶體製造廠。一個也沒有;真的一個也沒有。

  • Hopefully, Micron will have something going in a few years because they are headquartered in Idaho, where they make a lot of potato chips. We don't really need to make computer chips, too.

    希望美光公司幾年後能有所作為,因為他們的總部位於愛達荷州,那裡生產大量的薯片。我們其實也不需要製造電腦晶片。

  • We're working with our strategic partners on the chip front: memory and logic. I think we got to also try our hand at building a large-scale fab that integrates logic, memory, and packaging. If we don't do that, we're just going to be fundamentally limited by the supply chain, especially if there's some geo -- in the worst-case, geopolitical situation, it would be quite a severe situation.

    我們正在與策略合作夥伴在晶片領域展開合作:包括記憶體和邏輯晶片。我認為我們還有機會嘗試建造一個整合邏輯、記憶體和封裝的大型晶圓廠。如果我們不這樣做,我們將從根本上受到供應鏈的限制,尤其是在出現某些地緣政治局勢的情況下,情況會非常嚴峻。

  • I think, quite frankly, it'd be crazy not to try out the TeraFab. We'll have a bigger announcement on this in the future.

    坦白說,我覺得不去嘗試 TeraFab 簡直太瘋狂了。未來我們將就此事發布更詳細的公告。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Awesome. With that, we're going to move on to analyst questions.

    驚人的。接下來,我們將進入分析師提問環節。

  • The first analyst is Emmanuel from Wolfe Research. Emmanuel, please feel free to unmute yourself.

    第一位分析師是來自 Wolfe Research 的 Emmanuel。伊曼紐爾,請隨意取消靜音。

  • Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

    Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Thank you so much. It's Emmanuel Rosner from Wolfe Research. My first question is on the CapEx. You signal a pretty large increase to over $20 billion for this year. Any ways to dimension for us which of the product line or technologies account for the bulk of the increase?

    偉大的。太感謝了。我是來自 Wolfe Research 的 Emmanuel Rosner。我的第一個問題是關於資本支出的。你預示著今年將大幅成長至超過200億美元。有什麼方法可以幫我們確定哪條產品線或哪項技術貢獻了大部分的成長?

  • Also, do you view this as one-time in nature for 2026? Or how much of this is an ongoing level of high spending for a number of years?

    另外,您認為這種情況在2026年是一次性的嗎?或者說,其中有多少是持續多年的高支出水準?

  • Finally, still on that, with that level of spending, you're going to be burning cash. How should we think about cash balance or any other way to finance this?

    最後,還是要說這一點,照你這種消費水平,你一定會燒錢。我們應該如何考慮現金餘額或其他融資方式?

  • Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

    Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Emmanuel, I tried to put this in my opening remarks, too, but I'll try and go a little bit deeper.

    是的。伊曼紐爾,我也試著在開場白中提到這一點,但我會試著更深入地探討。

  • There's about six factories which we are starting production in this year. So there's a lot of cash CapEx going into that. As we are trying to scale Optimus, we need a lot more compute. We're putting more money towards compute, as well.

    今年我們將在大約六家工廠開始生產。所以這方面投入了大量的現金資本支出。由於我們正在嘗試擴展 Optimus 的規模,我們需要更多的運算能力。我們也在加大對運算能力的投入。

  • And then (multiple speakers) --

    進而(多位發言者)——

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • For training.

    用於培訓。

  • Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

    Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

  • For training.

    用於培訓。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

    Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

  • We're also going to be spending money to expand the capacity at our existing factories. On top of it, just keep in mind that none of these numbers which I shared, of $20 billion, factors in anything to do with the solar fab or the semiconductor chip fab. Those would, as Elon mentioned, would come later on.

    我們也將投入資金擴大現有工廠的產能。此外,請記住,我分享的這些 200 億美元的數字中,沒有一個考慮了與太陽能工廠或半導體晶片工廠相關的任何因素。正如埃隆所說,那些事情以後再說。

  • Your second part of your question was: Is this one-off or would we expect more? I think we're getting into this investment phase because we have big aspirations. When you look at it, some of these aspirations are -- I call them as infrastructure plays, especially if you have to do a chip fab and we have to do a solar cell manufacturing fab. Those are infrastructure plays. That funding takes a little bit longer. You would be in an investment cycle for a little bit longer.

    你問題的第二部分是:這是個案還是會有更多類似情況發生?我認為我們之所以進入投資階段,是因為我們胸懷大志。從長遠來看,這些願景中的一些——我稱之為基礎設施建設,特別是如果你要建造一個晶片製造廠,而我們又要建造一個太陽能電池製造廠。這些都是基礎建設方面的措施。資金到位需要更長。你的投資週期會稍微延長一些。

  • Third part of your question was, how are we going to fund it? Initially, obviously, we have over $44 billion of cash and investments on the books. So we'll use our internal resources. But there are ways where we can fund it, especially when we look at the Robotaxi fleet because anytime you have a consistent stream of cash flow, you can go and get money from the banks. We have had conversations with banks about it. That is something how we're going to do it.

    你問題的第三部分是,我們該如何籌措資金?很顯然,我們帳面上最初擁有超過 440 億美元的現金和投資。所以我們將利用內部資源。但是,我們有辦法為其籌集資金,尤其是當我們考慮 Robotaxi 車隊時,因為只要有穩定的現金流,就可以向銀行獲得貸款。我們已經就此事與銀行進行過洽談。這就是我們將要採取的方式。

  • On the infrastructure play side, like I said, we don't have a number yet. But given that it's an infrastructure play, it's a longer tail, we will have to look at a little bit more in terms of how we fund it, whether it's through more debt or other means.

    就基礎設施建設方面而言,正如我所說,我們目前還沒有具體數字。但鑑於這是一個基礎設施項目,其影響週期較長,我們需要更多地考慮如何為其融資,是透過更多債務還是其他方式。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Great. Our next question comes from Andrew from Morgan Stanley.

    偉大的。下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安德魯。

  • Andrew, please feel free to unmute yourself.

    安德魯,請隨意解除靜音。

  • Andrew Percoco - Analyst

    Andrew Percoco - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks so much for taking the question. I just want to start on the xAI investment that you guys announced today. You talked about there being some collaboration between the companies. So just hoping to get more information or hoping that you could shed more light on what that looks like and maybe how the work xAI is doing can be leveraged at Tesla and vice versa.

    偉大的。非常感謝您回答這個問題。我只想先談談你們今天宣布的xAI投資項目。你提到這些公司之間存在著一些合作。所以,我只是希望能獲得更多信息,或者希望您能更詳細地說明一下這方面的情況,以及 xAI 正在做的工作如何在特斯拉得到應用,反之亦然。

  • Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

    Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. If you've looked at the disclosure, which we also put in there, we do talk about -- this is literally furtherance of our Master Plan IV. Even today, if you look at Tesla vehicles, we are using Grok in there.

    是的。如果你看過我們放在裡面的披露文件,就會知道我們確實談到了——這實際上是我們第四個總體規劃的推進。即使在今天,如果你看看特斯拉汽車,我們仍然在車內使用 Grok 技術。

  • As we look at things -- whether we can do it ourselves, yes, there are a lot of things which we can do ourselves. But if there are things which xAI can help accelerate our progress, then why should we not do that?

    當我們審視事物時——我們是否能夠自己完成,是的,有很多事情我們可以自己完成。但是,如果 xAI 可以幫助我們加速某些方面的進步,那麼我們為什麼不利用它呢?

  • That is the reason why we've gone ahead with such an investment because this is part of the strategic initiative because, as it is, if you remember, I talked about how many things which we are doing ourselves. If there are ways and means we can find efficient ways for others to help us, xAI literally fits into that mold. That's why we went ahead with it.

    這就是我們進行這項投資的原因,因為這是策略性舉措的一部分,因為,如果你還記得的話,我之前說過我們正在自己做很多事情。如果我們能找到有效的方式來幫助他人,那麼 xAI 正好符合這種模式。這就是我們決定繼續前進的原因。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • We just had a lot of investors ask us to do this. There was a lot of investor -- Tesla shareholders said we should invest in xAI. So we're just doing what shareholders would ask us to do, pretty much.

    很多投資者都要求我們這麼做。很多投資者-特斯拉的股東都說我們應該投資xAI。所以,我們基本上只是在做股東要求我們做的事情。

  • But Grok will be, I think, very helpful in maximizing the efficiency of the management of a large autonomous fleet. If you've got an autonomous fleet that's, in the future, 10 million vehicles or tens of millions of vehicles, then optimizing the efficient use of that fleet, Grok will be way better than any heuristic solution or manually managed solution.

    但我認為,Grok 將非常有助於最大限度地提高大型自主車隊的管理效率。如果你未來擁有一支1000萬輛或數千萬輛的自動駕駛車隊,那麼在優化車隊高效利用方面,Grok 將比任何啟發式解決方案或人工管理解決方案都要好得多。

  • If you set up managing a large team of Optimus robots to build a factory or build a refinery and, say, a rare hypothetical -- like, this is a hypothetical example: a rare earth ore refinery, which we do desperately need in America.

    如果你安排管理一支龐大的 Optimus 機器人團隊來建造工廠或煉油廠,比如說,一個罕見的假設——例如,這是一個假設的例子:一個稀土礦石精煉廠,我們美國確實迫切需要它。

  • Then, you'd say, well, what's going to organize the Optimus robots to build that ore refinery? You need an orchestra conductor. And so, then, Grok would be the orchestra conductor for the Optimus robots to build the -- hypothetically -- and it might not be hypothetical in the future. I'm just saying it's not currently on our plans. But we do need a lot more ore refining capacity in the US.

    然後,你可能會問,那麼,是什麼來組織擎天柱機器人建造那個礦石精煉廠呢?你需要一位樂隊指揮。因此,格羅克將成為擎天柱機器人的樂團指揮,來建造──這只是假設──而將來這可能就不是假設了。我只是說,目前這不在我們的計劃之內。但美國確實需要更多的礦石提煉能力。

  • So then, what's going to manage, let's say, a thousand Optimus robots to (technical difficulty) --

    那麼,什麼才能管理,比如說,一千個擎天柱機器人呢?(技術難題)——

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • You're on mute, right now, so I'm not sure if you're trying to ask a follow-up question.

    您現在處於靜音狀態,所以我不太確定您是否想問後續問題。

  • Great. We're going to move on to the next question, which is coming from Dan Levy at Barclays.

    偉大的。接下來我們將討論下一個問題,這個問題來自巴克萊銀行的丹‧利維。

  • Dan Levy - Analyst

    Dan Levy - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. Elon, you talked about some of the constraints on memory. Given the very tight supply, are there any near-term constraints on procuring memory? If there are, to what extent could you look at modifying the functionality of the vehicle similar to what you did in '21 when we saw shortages on MCUs? Maybe, how are you thinking about bridging in the next few years?

    偉大的。謝謝。埃隆,你談到了記憶體方面的一些限制。鑑於目前內存供應非常緊張,近期內存採購是否有任何限制?如果有這種情況,您能否考慮在多大程度上修改車輛的功能,類似於 2021 年我們遇到 MCU 短缺時所做的那樣?或許,您打算如何安排未來幾年的過渡期?

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Well, at Tesla, the Tesla AI is very compute efficient and very memory efficient. One of the metrics I want you to consider for any given AI model is the intelligence per gigabyte.

    特斯拉的AI系統在運算效率和記憶體效率方面都非常出色。對於任何給定的 AI 模型,我希望你們考慮的指標之一是每 GB 的智慧等級。

  • Especially when you're constrained on RAM, having an AI that has very high intelligence density per gigabyte -- you can say, for a given number of gigabytes, how much functionality can you get out of it? I actually think Tesla is ahead of the rest of the world in intelligence density of AI by an order of magnitude or more.

    尤其是在記憶體有限的情況下,如果人工智慧的每 GB 智慧密度非常高——你可以說,對於給定的 GB 數,你能從中獲得多少功能?實際上,我認為特斯拉在人工智慧的智慧密度方面領先世界其他地區一個數量級甚至更多。

  • This is going to sound like a pretty bold statement but I know what the intelligence efficiency of the big models are like Grok -- like, honest -- and a bunch of the other models. Tesla's AI is, in terms of memory efficiency, I think, more than an order of magnitude better.

    這聽起來可能有點誇張,但我知道像 Grok 這樣的大型模型的智慧效率——真的——以及其他一些模型的智慧效率。就記憶體效率而言,我認為特斯拉的人工智慧要好一個數量級以上。

  • So that puts us in a pretty good position, actually, for scaling. We do think that there's -- we do have a solution for logic and memory for, let's say, the next, roughly, three years. But if you start going beyond three years -- and we look at the scaling plans and how many fabs are getting built -- and especially if you factor in geopolitical uncertainty, there's always risk that maybe those chips don't arrive that people were expecting to arrive.

    所以,這實際上使我們處於一個相當有利的規模化發展地位。我們認為,在未來大約三年內,我們確實有邏輯和記憶體方面的解決方案。但如果時間超過三年——我們看看規模化計劃以及正在建造的晶圓廠數量——尤其是考慮到地緣政治的不確定性,總是會存在這樣的風險:這些晶片可能無法按人們的預期交付。

  • That's why I think we need to have more fab capacity in the US, just in case chips don't start arriving for any reason. This is really existential for Tesla because Optimus is completely useless without an AI chip. It's not like -- at least the cars, we can put steering wheels and pedals in or retrofit them, if need be.

    所以我認為我們需要在美國增加晶片製造能力,以防萬一晶片由於任何原因無法開始交付。這對特斯拉來說真的是生死攸關的問題,因為如果沒有人工智慧晶片,Optimus 就完全沒用。至少對於汽車來說,我們可以安裝方向盤和踏板,或在必要時進行改裝。

  • But Optimus is just a mannequin without -- it's like the Tin Man or whatever, The Wizard of Oz. But even worse, at least the Tin Man could walk. Optimus would not even be able to just sit there without an AI chip.

    但擎天柱只是一個沒有靈魂的人體模型──就像鐵皮人或《綠野仙蹤》裡的奧茲巫師。但更糟的是,至少鐵皮人還能走路。如果沒有人工智慧晶片,擎天柱甚至無法靜靜地待在那裡。

  • We've got a good solution for significant scale through for the next, roughly, three years. Beyond that, we will be supplier-limited and so we've got to figure out some gameplan to not be supplier-limited.

    我們已經找到了一個能夠滿足未來大約三年內大規模需求的良好解決方案。除此之外,我們將受到供應商的限制,所以我們必須想辦法擺脫供應商的限制。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Great. Our next question is going to come from George at Canaccord.

    偉大的。下一個問題將來自 Canaccord 公司的 George。

  • George, please feel free to unmute yourself.

    喬治,請隨意解除靜音。

  • George Gianarikas - Analyst

    George Gianarikas - Analyst

  • Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. There's been a surge of start-ups, particularly from China, entering the humanoid market. Wondering what the long-term competitive advantages that keep Tesla ahead are? How, based on what you've seen, will Optimus fundamentally differ from these competitors? Thank you.

    大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。近年來,尤其是來自中國的新創公司大量湧入人形機器人市場。想知道特斯拉保持長期競爭優勢的原因是什麼嗎?根據你所看到的,Optimus 與這些競爭對手在根本上會有哪些不同?謝謝。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Well, I do think that, by far, the biggest competition for humanoid robots will be from China. China is incredibly good at scaling manufacturing. Actually, quite good at AI, as you can see from the open-source -- not the open-source but the -- some of them are open, actually. But, basically, the models that China's distributing for free are actually quite good and they keep getting better. China is very good at AI, very good at manufacturing, and will definitely be the toughest competition for Tesla.

    嗯,我確實認為,迄今為止,人形機器人領域最大的競爭對手將來自中國。中國在擴大製造業規模方面非常出色。實際上,他們在人工智慧方面相當出色,你可以從開源軟體中看到這一點——不是說開源軟體,而是——實際上,其中一些是開源的。但總的來說,中國免費提供的模型實際上相當不錯,而且還在不斷改進。中國在人工智慧和製造業方面都非常出色,肯定會成為特斯拉最強勁的競爭對手。

  • To the best of our knowledge, we don't see any significant competitors outside of China. But China will definitely be tough competition. There's no two ways about it.

    據我們所知,在中國以外,我們沒有看到任何重要的競爭對手。但中國絕對是個強勁的競爭對手。這點毋庸置疑。

  • I always think people outside of China underestimate China. China's next level. We think Optimus will be much more capable than any robot that we are aware of under development in China. We think we'll be ahead in terms of the real-world intelligence; the electromechanical dexterity, especially the hand design, which is, by far, the hardest thing in the robot.

    我總覺得中國以外的人低估了中國。中國的下一個發展階段。我們認為Optimus的性能將遠遠超出我們所知的中國正在研發的任何機器人。我們認為我們在現實世界的智慧方面會領先;機電靈巧性,特別是手部設計,是機器人迄今為止最難的部分。

  • In fact, I'd say there's really three hard things about humanoid robots: Building an incredible hand that has the same degrees of freedom and dexterity as a human hand is an incredibly difficult engineering challenge. Then, there's the real-world AI and scaling production. Those are the three hardest problems, by far, for humanoid robots. I think Tesla is the only company that actually has all three of those components.

    事實上,我認為人形機器人真正困難的地方有三點:製造一隻擁有與人手相同的自由度和靈巧度的神奇手是一個極其困難的工程挑戰。然後,還有現實世界的人工智慧和規模化生產。就人形機器人而言,這無疑是最棘手的三個問題。我認為特斯拉是唯一一家真正擁有這三個要素的公司。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Great. Our last question is going to come from Colin at Oppenheimer.

    偉大的。最後一個問題來自奧本海默公司的科林。

  • Colin, please feel free to unmute yourself.

    科林,請隨意解除靜音。

  • Colin Rusch - Analyst

    Colin Rusch - Analyst

  • Thanks so much. You talked a lot about the CapEx spend but this is an incredibly ambitious technology development program that you're talking about. Can you talk a little bit about the R&D spend? And how you're thinking about the synergies of the different components, particularly on the hardware side, if you think about batteries into -- in the chips and the memory and the efficiency of the system and what advantages you think you'll end up getting out of some of these purpose-built devices that you'll end up integrating into multiple end markets?

    非常感謝。您談了很多關於資本支出,但您所說的這項技術開發計劃是一項雄心勃勃的計劃。能談談研發支出方面的狀況嗎?您是如何考慮不同組件之間的協同作用的,尤其是在硬體方面,例如將電池、晶片、內存和系統效率等因素考慮在內,您認為最終會從這些專用設備中獲得哪些優勢,並將這些設備整合到多個終端市場中?

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Well, really, all we're trying to do is make sure that we can scale to a very high volume with autonomous vehicles, with humanoid robots; and that we address geopolitical risk.

    其實,我們所做的一切都是為了確保我們能夠利用自動駕駛汽車和人形機器人來實現非常高的規模化生產;並且應對地緣政治風險。

  • There are so many companies out there that are asleep with the switch with regard to geopolitical risk. Or they just have their head in the sand and hope nothing bad will happen.

    很多公司對地緣政治風險的認知還很薄弱。或者他們只是鴕鳥心態,希望不會發生任何壞事。

  • I'm way more paranoid than that. I always think of Andy Grove's famous statement: only the paranoid survive. Why did he come up with that statement at Intel? Let's think. I think there's a lot of wisdom in that statement.

    我比那要多疑得多。我總是想起安迪‧格魯夫那句名言:只有偏執狂才能生存。他為什麼會在英特爾發表那番言論?我們來思考一下。我覺得這句話很有道理。

  • We're going to be paranoid and make sure that we can continue to build batteries and robots and AI chips, no matter what happens. Companies that don't do that, a bunch of them will cease to exist.

    我們將保持高度警惕,確保無論發生什麼,我們都能繼續生產電池、機器人和人工智慧晶片。不這樣做的公司,很多都會倒閉。

  • Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

    Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Remember: All this comes out of necessity. It's not that we want to do it. It's just we have no choice.

    是的。記住:這一切都是出於無奈。並不是我們想這麼做。我們別無選擇。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Yeah. We're building the most advanced lithium refinery in the world, by the way. It's not just -- like our lithium refinery in Corpus Christi is not just a copy of what others have done. It's an entirely new process that is fundamentally more efficient and more advanced than anything else in the world.

    是的。順便一提,我們正在建造世界上最先進的鋰精煉廠。這不僅僅是——就像我們在科珀斯克里斯蒂的鋰精煉廠不僅僅是對其他人所做事情的複製一樣。這是一個全新的流程,其效率和先進程度遠遠超過世界上任何其他流程。

  • The same is true of our cathode refinery here in Austin. We wish others would build this. Can other people please, for the love of God, help? In the name of all that is holy, can others please build this stuff?

    我們在奧斯汀的陰極精煉廠的情況也是如此。我們希望其他人也能建造這個。看在上帝的份上,其他人能不能幫忙?看在上帝的份上,其他人能不能也建造這些東西?

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • It's not the first time you (inaudible) --

    這並非你第一次…(聽不清楚)——

  • Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

    Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

  • Exactly. This is not the first time you've said something like this.

    確切地。這已經不是你第一次說這樣的話了。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Why do we have to build these things? Why can others not also please build these things? It's very hard to build these things.

    我們為什麼要建造這些東西?為什麼其他人就不能也建造這些東西呢?建造這些東西非常困難。

  • We build them out of desperation. Not because nobody else is building lithium refineries and cathode refineries. We're pretty much the not just the largest but also the only lithium refinery and cathode refinery in America.

    我們是在絕望中建造它們的。並非因為沒有其他國家在建造鋰精煉廠和陰極材料精煉廠。我們不僅是美國最大的鋰精煉廠,而且幾乎是唯一一家鋰精煉廠和正極材料精煉廠。

  • We're making moves to make sure that no matter what happens, Tesla will prosper.

    我們正在採取措施,確保無論發生什麼,特斯拉都能蓬勃發展。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head - Investor Relations

  • Great. Unfortunately, that's all the time we have for Q&A today.

    偉大的。很遺憾,今天的問答時間就到此為止了。

  • We really appreciate everyone's questions. We look forward to talking to you next quarter.

    我們非常感謝大家的提問。我們期待下個季度與您再次洽談。

  • Thank you very much. Goodbye.

    非常感謝。再見。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • All right. Cool.

    好的。涼爽的。