特斯拉 (TSLA) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q3 營收、能源毛利、自由現金流均創新高,汽車營收季增 29%,能源事業部署與毛利同創紀錄
    • 2025 年 CapEx 指引維持約 90 億美元,2026 年將大幅提升以因應 AI 與 Optimus 等新業務擴張
    • 本季未提及盤後股價或市場即時反應
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • FSD(全自動駕駛)進展明顯,Robotaxi 已於奧斯汀與灣區多城市運營,年底預計擴展至 8-10 個大都會區
      • 新 Model Y 推出帶動全球交付量成長,尤其中國、APAC、北美、EMEA 均有 25-33% 季增
      • 能源儲存(Megapack、Powerwall)需求強勁,能源事業部署、毛利、毛利率創新高,Megapack 3/4 產品線推進
      • Optimus 機器人持續研發,預計 Q1 展示 V3,年底啟動量產線,長期視為最大產品潛力
      • AI5 晶片設計進展,預計效能大幅超越 AI4,並與 Samsung、TSMC 雙供應鏈合作,強化自有 AI 能力
    • 風險:
      • 能源事業受中國電池關稅與全球競爭加劇影響,Q3 關稅衝擊超過 4 億美元
      • Optimus 機器人量產面臨供應鏈、手部機構等重大工程挑戰,短期內硬體設計仍將持續優化
      • FSD、Robotaxi 推廣高度依賴各地監管審批,擴展速度具不確定性
      • AI、R&D 員工激勵費用增加,營運費用持續上升
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 汽車交付:全球各區域季增 25-33%,新 Model Y 帶動需求
    • 汽車毛利率(不含碳權):由 15% 升至 15.4%,主因材料成本改善與規模效益
    • 能源儲存部署、毛利、毛利率:均創歷史新高,Megapack 需求強勁
    • FSD 付費用戶滲透率:約 12%,累計 FSD Supervised 行駛里程達 60 億英里
    • 自由現金流:約 40 億美元,創新高
    • 現金及投資:季末超過 410 億美元
  4. 財務預測
    • 2025 年 CapEx 預估約 90 億美元
    • 2026 年 CapEx 將大幅提升,因應 AI、Optimus 等新業務擴張
    • 未揭露具體營收或毛利率預估
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Robotaxi 目前的規模、里程、無人駕駛進度?何時能移除安全駕駛員?
      A: 預計今年底奧斯汀部分區域可完全無安全駕駛員,年底前擴展至 8-10 個大都會區,已在奧斯汀無人駕駛累積 25 萬英里,灣區(有駕駛員)超過 100 萬英里。
    • Q: Megapack、Powerwall、太陽能等能源儲存需求與 AI 應用展望?
      A: Megapack、Powerwall 需求強勁,AI 與資料中心應用帶動新需求,住宅太陽能因政策推動需求上升,預計 2026 上半年持續成長。
    • Q: Optimus 機器人量產挑戰與進度?
      A: 最大挑戰在於手部機構與供應鏈,預計 Q1 展示量產原型,年底啟動量產線,設計將持續優化,長期目標年產百萬台。
    • Q: AI5 晶片與 Samsung/TSMC 合作進度?效能與成本優勢?
      A: AI5 晶片將由 Samsung、TSMC 雙供應鏈生產,效能預計為 AI4 的 40 倍,設計聚焦簡化與高效,目標成為每瓦、每美元效能最佳。
    • Q: FSD 14 版本推進策略?Robotaxi 與一般用戶版本差異?
      A: 優先確保安全,舒適性逐步優化,Robotaxi 與用戶版本演算法架構大致相同,未來將加入推理能力,提升停車等複雜場景表現。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's third-quarter 2025 Q&A webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Vaibhav Taneja, and a number of other executives. Our Q3 results were announced at about 3:00 PM Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

    大家下午好,歡迎收聽特斯拉2025年第三季問答網路直播。我叫特拉維斯·阿克塞爾羅德 (Travis Axelrod),是投資者關係主管,今天與我一起出席的還有埃隆·馬斯克 (Elon Musk)、瓦伊巴夫·塔內賈 (Vaibhav Taneja) 和其他一些高管。我們的第三季業績於美國中部時間下午 3:00 左右在與本次網路廣播相同的連結中發布的更新報告中公佈。

  • During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. We urge shareholders to read our definitive proxy statement, which contains important information about the matters to be voted on at the 2025 Annual Meeting.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和預期。由於多種風險和不確定因素,包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定因素,實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。我們敦促股東閱讀我們的最終代理聲明,其中包含有關 2025 年年度會議上要投票的事項的重要資訊。

  • (Event Instructions)

    (活動須知)

  • Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

    在我們進入問答環節之前,伊隆先發表一些開場白。埃隆?

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Thank you. We're -- we're at a critical inflection point for Tesla and our strategy going forward as we bring AI into the real world. I think it's important to emphasize that Tesla really is the leader in real-world AI. No one can do what we can do with real-world AI. I have pretty good insight into AI in general.

    謝謝。隨著我們將人工智慧帶入現實世界,我們正處於特斯拉和未來策略的關鍵轉折點。我認為有必要強調的是,特斯拉確實是現實世界人工智慧的領導者。沒有人能夠做到我們利用現實世界的人工智慧所能做到的事情。我對人工智慧整體有相當深入的了解。

  • I think that Tesla has the highest intelligence density of any AI out there in the car and that is only going to get better. And we're really just at the beginning of scaling at a quite massively full self-driving in Robotaxi and fundamentally changing the nature of transport. I think people just don't quite appreciate the degree to which this will take off -- where it's -- honestly, it's going to be like a shock wave.

    我認為特斯拉擁有目前所有汽車人工智慧中最高的智慧密度,而且這種情況只會越來越好。我們實際上才剛開始大規模推廣 Robotaxi 的自動駕駛技術,並從根本上改變交通運輸的本質。我認為人們只是沒有充分認識到這件事情會發展到何種程度——老實說,它會像一股衝擊波。

  • So it's -- because the cars are all out there, there are are millions of cars out there that, with a software update, become full self-driving cars. And we're making a couple of million a year. And in fact, with the advent of -- with what we see now as a clarity on achieving full self-driving -- unsupervised full self-driving, I should say, I feel confident in expanding Tesla's production. So that is our intent to expand as quickly as we can of future production.

    所以——因為汽車都在那裡,有數百萬輛汽車,透過軟體更新,就變成了完全自動駕駛汽車。我們每年能賺幾百萬美元。事實上,隨著我們現在看到的實現完全自動駕駛——無人監督的完全自動駕駛的明確性,我應該說,我對擴大特斯拉的產量充滿信心。因此,我們的目的是盡快擴大未來的生產。

  • So I was reticent to do that until we had clarity on achieving unsupervised full self-driving. But at this point, I feel like we've got clarity and it makes sense to expand production as fast as we reasonably can.

    因此,在我們明確如何實現無人監督的完全自動駕駛之前,我不願意這樣做。但目前,我覺得我們已經清楚了,盡快合理地擴大生產是有意義的。

  • We're also making huge impact on the energy sector with battery storage. So with both the Powerwall and especially with the Megapack, we are dramatically improving the ability to generate more energy from the grid.

    我們也透過電池儲存對能源領域產生了巨大影響。因此,透過 Powerwall 和 Megapack,我們大大提高了從電網產生更多能源的能力。

  • So let me talk a little bit about that, which is if you look at total US energy capability, for example, there's roughly 1 terawatt of continuous power available in the US. But the average usage over a 24-hour cycle is only 0.5 terawatt because of the big difference between day and night usage.

    那麼讓我稍微談談這一點,如果你看一下美國的總能源能力,例如,美國大約有 1 太瓦的連續電力可用。但由於白天和夜間用電量差異很大,24 小時平均用電量僅 0.5 太瓦。

  • If you buffer the energy with batteries, you can effectively double the energy output in the United States just with batteries building no incremental power plants. And it's very difficult to build power plants. So they take a long time, there's a lot of permitting and it's not an industry that's used to moving fast. So we see the potential there for Tesla battery packs to greatly improve the energy outlook per year for any given grid US or otherwise.

    如果使用電池來緩衝能量,那麼僅使用電池就可以有效地使美國的能源產量翻一番,而無需建造增量發電廠。而且建造發電廠非常困難。因此,它們需要很長時間,需要獲得大量許可,而且這不是一個習慣快速發展的行業。因此,我們看到特斯拉電池組有潛力大幅改善美國​​或其他地區電網的年度能源前景。

  • We're also on the cusp of something really tremendous with Optimus, which I think is likely to be -- or has potential to be the biggest product of all time. And it's a difficult project. And it's worth noting that it's not like it's just automatic, I'm not aware of any robot program by Ford or GM or by a US car companies. I feel like, I think maybe think of Tesla as a car company who mostly make cars and battery packs.

    我們也即將推出 Optimus 這一真正偉大的產品,我認為它很可能——或者有潛力成為有史以來最偉大的產品。這是一個困難的項目。值得注意的是,它並不是自動的,我不知道福特、通用或美國汽車公司有任何機器人程式。我覺得,也許可以把特斯拉當成一家主要生產汽車和電池組的汽車公司。

  • But -- so it's not just like an obvious fall off a log thing to make Optimus. But we do have the ingredients of real-world AI and exceptional electrical and mechanical engineering capabilities and the ability to scale production, which I don't think anyone else has all of those ingredients.

    但是——所以製造擎天柱並不像一件顯而易見的事情那麼簡單。但我們確實擁有現實世界人工智慧的要素、卓越的電氣和機械工程能力以及規模化生產的能力,我認為沒有其他人擁有所有這些要素。

  • So yeah, with Version 14 of the self-driving, which people -- you can see the reactions of people online. They're quite amazed. And actually, anyone in the US can get Version 14 if they just go and select. I want the advanced software in their car. So if you're listening right now and you'd like to try it out, just go in settings and say, I want to be advanced software, and you will get Version 14.

    是的,有了自動駕駛 14 版,你可以在網路上看到人們的反應。他們非常驚訝。實際上,美國的任何人只要選擇就可以獲得版本 14。我想要他們車上的先進軟體。因此,如果您現在正在聽並且想要嘗試一下,只需進入設定並說“我想要高級軟體”,您就會獲得版本 14。

  • And yeah, so -- on the Megapack front, we unveiled Megablock, the Megapack 3. We also have exciting plans for Megapack 4. Megapack 4 will incorporate a lot of the -- a lot of what is normally in a substation and be a output at probably 35 kilovolts directly. So this greatly improves our ability to deploy Megapack because it's not dependent on building a substation of 335 kV or Megapack 4. So that will be -- that's the engineering priority for Megapack.

    是的,在 Megapack 方面,我們推出了 Megablock,也就是 Megapack 3。我們對 Megapack 4 也制定了令人興奮的計劃。Megapack 4 將整合變電站中的許多常規設備,並直接輸出約 35 千伏特的電壓。因此,這大大提高了我們部署 Megapack 的能力,因為它不依賴建造 335 kV 或 Megapack 4 的變電站。所以這將是——這是 Megapack 的工程重點。

  • And we look forward to unveiling Optimus V3 probably in Q1. I think it will be ready for -- to show off. And that I think is going to be quite remarkable. If you -- it would even seem like a robot. It will seem like a person in a robot suit, which is how we started off with Optimus.

    我們期待在第一季推出 Optimus V3。我認為它已經準備好展示自己了。我認為這將是相當了不起的。如果你——它甚至看起來像一個機器人。它看起來就像一個穿著機器人套裝的人,這就是我們最初設計擎天柱的初衷。

  • But it will seem so real that you'll need to like poke it, I think, to believe that it's actually a robot. And obviously, like the real world intelligence we've developed for the car, most of that transfers to Optimus. So it's a very good starting point.

    但它看起來非常真實,我認為你需要戳它才能相信它實際上是一個機器人。顯然,就像我們為汽車開發的真實世界智慧一樣,其中大部分都轉移到了 Optimus 上。所以這是一個非常好的起點。

  • In conclusion, we're excited about the updated mission of Tesla, which is sustainable abundance. So going beyond sustainable energy to say sustainable abundance is the mission, where we believe with Optimus and self-driving that you can actually create a world where there is no poverty, where everyone has access to the finest medical care.

    總之,我們對特斯拉的最新使命感到興奮,那就是永續的富足。因此,我們的使命是超越永續能源,實現永續的富足,我們相信,透過 Optimus 和自動駕駛,我們能夠真正創造一個沒有貧窮、每個人都能享受到最好的醫療服務的世界。

  • Optimus will be an incredible surgeon, for example. And imagine if everyone had access to an incredible surgeon. So I think there's -- now of course, we need to make sure Optimus is safe and everything. But I do think we're headed for a world of sustainable abundance. And I'm excited to work with the Tesla team to make that happen.

    例如,擎天柱將是一位出色的外科醫生。想像一下,如果每個人都能接觸到一位出色的外科醫生。所以我認為──現在當然我們需要確保擎天柱的安全等等。但我確實認為我們正走向一個可持續富足的世界。我很高興能與特斯拉團隊合作實現這一目標。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Great. Thank you very much, Elon. Vaibhav also has some opening remarks.

    偉大的。非常感謝,埃隆。Vaibhav 也發表了一些開場白。

  • Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

    Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Travis. Q3 was a special quarter at multiple levels. We set new records, not just for deliveries and deployments, but also around a range of financial metrics from total revenues, energy gross profit, and energy margins to free cash flow. This was the result of continued confidence of our customers in our products and the relentless efforts by the Tesla team.

    謝謝,崔維斯。第三季在多個層面上都是一個特別的季度。我們創造了新的記錄,不僅在交付和部署方面,而且在從總收入、能源毛利、能源利潤率到自由現金流等一系列財務指標方面。這是客戶對我們產品的持續信任以及特斯拉團隊不懈努力的結果。

  • The strength in deliveries was attributed to strong performance across all regions. Greater China and APAC were up sequentially 33% and 29%, respectively. North America was up 28%, while EMEA was up 25%. The pace in deliveries was the function of continued excitement around the new Model Y.

    交付量的強勁歸功於所有地區的強勁表現。大中華區和亞太區分別較上季成長 33% 和 29%。北美地區上漲 28%,歐洲、中東和非洲地區上漲 25%。交貨速度的加速得益於新款 Model Y 的持續熱度。

  • We had previously talked about 2025 being the year of the Y and have since delivered on that promise with the new Model Y released in Q1 followed by Model Y Long Wheelbase and performance and more recently, standard Y in North America and EMEA.

    我們之前曾談到 2025 年將是 Y 之年,並且已經兌現了這一承諾,在第一季度發布了新款 Model Y,隨後是長軸距和性能版 Model Y,最近又在北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區推出了標準 Y。

  • We're now operating a Robotaxi in two markets, Austin and most Bay area cities. We've already expanded our coverage area in Austin 3 times since the initial launch and are on pace to continue expanding further. Unlike our competitors, our Robotaxi fleet blends in the markets we operate in, since they don't have extra sensor sets or peripherals, which make them stick out.

    我們目前在兩個市場經營 Robotaxi,即奧斯汀和大多數灣區城市。自首次推出以來,我們已經三次擴大了在奧斯汀的覆蓋範圍,並且正在繼續進一步擴大。與我們的競爭對手不同,我們的 Robotaxi 車隊融入了我們營運的市場,因為它們沒有額外的感測器組或週邊設備,這使它們脫穎而出。

  • This is an underappreciated aspect of our current vehicle offerings, which are all designed for autonomous driving. We feel that has experience -- as people experience the Supervised FSD at scale, the demand for our vehicles, like Elon said, would increase significantly.

    這是我們目前提供的車輛中未被充分重視的一個方面,這些車輛都是為自動駕駛而設計的。我們認為,隨著人們大規模體驗監督式 FSD,正如 Elon 所說,對我們車輛的需求將會大幅增加。

  • On the FSD adoption front, we've continued to see decent progress. However, note that total paid FSD customer base is still small, around 12% of our current fleet. We're moving -- or we're working with regulators in places like China and EMEA to obtain approvals so that we can get FSD in those regions as well.

    在 FSD 採用方面,我們繼續看到不錯的進展。然而,請注意,FSD 的付費客戶總數仍然很小,約占我們目前車隊的 12%。我們正在與中國和歐洲、中東和非洲等地的監管機構合作以獲得批准,以便我們也可以在那些地區推出 FSD。

  • Now covering a little bit on the financial side. Automotive revenues increased 29% sequentially, in line with the growth in deliveries. While regulatory credits declined sequentially, we entered into new contracts and continued delivery on previously entered contracts.

    現在稍微談一下財務方面的問題。汽車收入季增 29%,與交車量的成長一致。儘管監管信用額度連續下降,但我們仍簽訂了新合約並繼續履行先前簽訂的合約。

  • Our automotive margins, excluding credits, increased marginally from 15% to 15.4%, which was attributed to improvements in material costs and better fixed cost absorption due to higher volumes.

    我們的汽車利潤率(不包括信貸)從 15% 小幅上升至 15.4%,這歸因於材料成本的改善以及由於產量增加而導致的固定成本吸收的改善。

  • The energy storage business continued to deliver with record deployments, gross profit, and margins. As discussed before, this business has a bigger impact from tariffs as measured by a percentage of COGS since currently, all cells procured are from China, while we're still working on other alternatives.

    能源儲存業務持續實現創紀錄的部署、毛利和利潤率。如前所述,以銷貨成本百分比衡量,這項業務受關稅的影響更大,因為目前所有採購的電池都來自中國,而我們仍在研究其他替代方案。

  • However, as the ramp of Megafactory Shanghai is happening, this is helping us avoid tariffs because we are using this factory to supply to non-US demand. Like Elon said, grid-scale storage, the only way we can get to electricity fastest is by using storage.

    然而,隨著上海超級工廠的建設,這有助於我們避免關稅,因為我們正在利用這家工廠來滿足美國以外的需求。就像伊隆所說的那樣,電網規模的存儲,我們最快獲得電力的唯一方法就是使用儲存。

  • The other thing to keep in mind is we are seeing headwinds in this business given the increase in competition and tariffs. The total tariff impact for Q3 for both businesses was in excess of $400 million, generally split evenly between them. Services and other demonstrated a marked improvement sequentially.

    另一件需要記住的事情是,由於競爭和關稅的增加,我們看到這個行業面臨阻力。第三季度,兩家企業所受關稅影響總額超過 4 億美元,基本均攤。服務業和其他行業連續表現出明顯的改善。

  • This was a function of improvements primarily in our insurance and service center businesses. Note that while small, our Robotaxi costs are included within services and other, along with our other businesses like paid supercharging, used car, parts and merchandise sales, et cetera.

    這主要得益於我們的保險和服務中心業務的改進。請注意,雖然規模很小,但我們的 Robotaxi 成本包含在服務和其他費用中,以及我們的其他業務,如付費充電、二手車、零件和商品銷售等。

  • Our operating expenses increased sequentially. The largest increase included in restructuring and other related to certain actions undertaken to reduce cost and improve efficiency to convergence of our AI chip design efforts.

    我們的營運費用連續增加。最大的成長包括重組和其他與降低成本和提高效率以整合我們的人工智慧晶片設計工作有關的某些行動。

  • Additionally, we incurred legal expenses related to proceedings in certain legal cases, as well as incremental cost incurred in preparation for our shareholder meeting. Such costs are recorded within SG&A.

    此外,我們也產生了與某些法律案件的訴訟相關的法律費用,以及為準備股東大會而產生的增量成本。此類成本記錄在銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 中。

  • Further, our employee-related spend is increasing, especially in R&D as we have recently granted various performance-based equity awards to employees working on AI initiatives and, therefore, such spend will continue to increase going forward.

    此外,我們的員工相關支出正在增加,特別是在研發方面,因為我們最近向從事人工智慧專案的員工授予了各種基於績效的股權獎勵,因此,此類支出未來將繼續增加。

  • On other income, our other income decreased sequentially, primarily from mark-to-market adjustments on BTC Holdings, which was a much smaller gain of $80 million in Q3 versus $284 million in Q2, with the rest of the movement attributable to FX movements in the quarter.

    其他收入方面,我們的其他收入環比下降,主要由於 BTC Holdings 的按市價調整,第三季度的收益為 8000 萬美元,遠低於第二季度的 2.84 億美元,其餘變動歸因於本季度的外匯變動。

  • Our free cash flow for the quarter was approximately $4 billion, which was yet another record. Our total cash and investments at the end of the quarter were over $41 billion.

    本季我們的自由現金流約為 40 億美元,這又創下了新紀錄。截至本季末,我們的現金和投資總額超過 410 億美元。

  • On the CapEx front, while we are expecting to be around $9 billion for the current year, we're projecting the numbers to increase substantially in 2026 as we prepare the company for the next phase of growth in terms of not just our existing businesses, but our bets around AI initiatives, including Optimus.

    在資本支出方面,雖然我們預計今年的資本支出約為 90 億美元,但我們預計 2026 年這一數字將大幅增加,因為我們不僅在現有業務方面為公司下一階段的增長做好準備,而且在包括 Optimus 在內的人工智能計劃方面的押注也做好準備。

  • In conclusion, note that bringing AI into real world is hard, but we have never shied away from doing what is hard. We are extremely excited about the future and are laying down the foundation, the benefits of which will be realized over years to come. I would like to end by thanking the Tesla team, our customers, our investors and supporters for their continued belief in us.

    總之,請注意,將人工智慧帶入現實世界很難,但我們從未迴避做困難的事情。我們對未來充滿期待,並正在奠定基礎,其效益將在未來幾年內實現。最後,我要感謝特斯拉團隊、我們的客戶、投資人和支持者對我們的持續信任。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Thank you very much, Vaibhav. Now let's go to investor questions. From say.com. The first question is, what are the latest Robotaxi metrics, fleet size, cumulative miles, rides completed intervention rates? And when will safety drivers be removed? What are the obstacles still preventing unsupervised FSD from being deployed to customer vehicles?

    非常感謝,Vaibhav。現在我們來回答投資人的問題。來自 say.com。第一個問題是,Robotaxi 的最新指標、車隊規模、累積里程、已完成行程介入率是多少?安全駕駛員什麼時候會被撤掉?哪些障礙仍然阻礙無人監督的 FSD 部署到客戶車輛?

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • I'll start off with that, and then Ashok can elaborate. But we are expecting to -- I have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year. So within a few months, we expect to have no safety drivers at all, at least in parts of Austin.

    我先從這個開始,然後 Ashok 可以詳細說明。但我們預計——到今年年底,奧斯汀至少大部分地區將沒有安全駕駛員。因此,我們預計幾個月內將不再有安全駕駛員,至少在奧斯汀的部分地區是如此。

  • We're obviously being very cautious about the deployment. So our goal is to be actually paranoid about deployment because obviously, even one accident will be front-page headline news worldwide. So it's better for us to take a cautious approach here. But we do expect to have no safe drivers in the car in Austin within a few months. I think that's perhaps the most important data point.

    我們顯然對部署非常謹慎。因此,我們的目標是真正對部署保持警惕,因為顯然,即使是一次事故也會成為全球頭條新聞。因此我們最好採取謹慎的態度。但我們確實預計幾個月內奧斯汀的汽車上將不再有安全駕駛員。我認為這也許是最重要的數據點。

  • And then we do expect to be operating Robotaxi. And I think about to 8 to 10 metro areas by the end of the year. It depends on various regulatory approvals. And -- but you can -- actually, I think most of our regulatory applications are online. You can see them because they're public information, but we expect to be operating in Nevada and Florida and Arizona by the end of the year. Ashok?

    然後我們確實希望運營 Robotaxi。我認為到今年年底將覆蓋 8 到 10 個大都市地區。這取決於各種監管部門的批准。而且 — — 但你可以 — — 實際上,我認為我們的大多數監管應用程式都是在線的。您可以看到它們,因為它們是公開訊息,但我們預計到今年年底將在內華達州、佛羅裡達州和亞利桑那州開展業務。阿肖克?

  • Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

    Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

  • Yeah. We continue to operate our fleet in Austin without anyone in the driver seat. And we have covered more than 0.25 million miles with that. And then in the Bay Area, where we still have a person in the driver seat as per regulations, we crossed more than 1 million miles. So -- and we continue to see that the fleet -- Robotaxi fleet works really well. Customers are really happy and there's no notable issues.

    是的。我們繼續在奧斯汀運營我們的車隊,但無人駕駛。我們已經行駛了超過 25 萬英里。然後在灣區,我們仍然按照規定安排一名駕駛員,我們的行駛里程超過 100 萬英里。所以——我們繼續看到車隊——Robotaxi車隊運作得非常好。顧客非常高興,並且沒有發現任何明顯的問題。

  • On the customer side, we have -- customers have used FSD Supervised for a total of 6 billion miles as of yesterday. So that's like a big milestone. And overall, the safety continues to be very good. And as Elon mentioned, we are on track to remove the person from inside the car all together, starting with Austin.

    在客戶方面,截至昨天,客戶使用 FSD Supervised 行駛里程已累積達 60 億英里。這是一個重要的里程碑。總體而言,安全性仍然非常好。正如埃隆所提到的,我們正按計劃將人從車內全部移出,首先從奧斯汀開始。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Great. The next question is, what is the demand and backlog for Megapack, Powerwall, solar or energy storage systems. With the current AI boom, is Tesla planning to supply power to other hyperscalers?

    偉大的。下一個問題是,Megapack、Powerwall、太陽能或儲能係統的需求和積壓情況如何。在當前人工智慧蓬勃發展的背景下,特斯拉是否計劃為其他超大規模企業提供電力?

  • Mike Donoughe - Executive Vice President, Vehicle Engineering and Manufacturing

    Mike Donoughe - Executive Vice President, Vehicle Engineering and Manufacturing

  • Thanks. Demand for Megapack and Powerwall continues to be really strong into next year. We received very strong positive customer feedback on our Megabblock product, which will begin shipping next year out of Houston. And we're seeing remarkable growth in the demand for AI and data center applications as hyperscalers and utilities have seen the versatility of the Megapack product to increase reliability and receive -- and relieve grid constraints as Elon was talking about.

    謝謝。明年對 Megapack 和 Powerwall 的需求將持續強勁。我們收到了客戶對 Megabblock 產品的非常積極的回饋,該產品將於明年從休士頓開始發貨。我們看到對人工智慧和資料中心應用的需求顯著增長,因為超大規模企業和公用事業公司已經看到了 Megapack 產品的多功能性,可以提高可靠性和接收能力——並緩解電網限制,正如 Elon 所說的那樣。

  • We've also seen a surge in residential solar demand in the US due to policy changes, which we expect to continue into the first half of 2026 as we introduced a new solar lease product. And we also began production of our Tesla residential solar panel in our Buffalo factory, and we will be shipping that to customers starting Q1.

    由於政策變化,我們也看到美國住宅太陽能需求激增,隨著我們推出新的太陽能租賃產品,我們預計這種需求將持續到 2026 年上半年。我們也開始在布法羅工廠生產特斯拉家用太陽能板,並將從第一季開始將其運送給客戶。

  • The panel has industry-leading aesthetics and shape performance and demonstrates our continued commitment to US manufacturing.

    該面板具有業界領先的美觀度和形狀性能,並體現了我們對美國製造業的持續承諾。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Great. Thank you, Mike. Unfortunately, the next question is related to future products. This is not the appropriate venue to cover that, so we're going to have to skip it. The question after that is, what are the present challenges in bringing Optimus to market considering app control software engineering hardware, training general mobility models, training task-specific models, training voice models, implementing manufacturing, and establishing supply chains?

    偉大的。謝謝你,麥克。不幸的是,下一個問題與未來的產品有關。這裡並不是討論該問題的合適場所,所以我們只能跳過它。接下來的問題是,考慮到應用程式控制軟體工程硬體、訓練通用行動模型、訓練特定任務模型、訓練語音模型、實施製造和建立供應鏈,將 Optimus 推向市場目前面臨哪些挑戰?

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Yeah. I mean, bringing off the Optimus to market is an incredibly difficult task to be clear. It's not like some walk in the park at some point. I mean, at this actually technically Optimus can walk in the park right now. And we do have Optimus robots that walk around our offices at our engineering headquarters in Palo Alto, California, basically 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

    是的。我的意思是,將 Optimus 推向市場是一項極其艱鉅的任務。這並不像在公園散步那麼簡單。我的意思是,實際上從技術上來說擎天柱現在就可以在公園裡散步了。我們確實有 Optimus 機器人在加州帕洛阿爾託的工程總部辦公室走動,基本上每週 7 天、每天 24 小時。

  • So any visitors that come by, you actually you can stop -- stop one of the Optimus robots and ask it to take you somewhere and it will literally take you to that meeting room or the location in the building.

    因此,對於任何路過的訪客,你實際上都可以停下來——停下其中一個 Optimus 機器人,讓它帶你去某個地方,它實際上會帶你去會議室或大樓裡的那個位置。

  • So I don't want to downplay the difficulty of Optimus. It's an incredibly difficult thing, especially it's difficult to create a hand that is as dexterous and capable of the human hand, which is an incredible -- the human hand is an incredible thing.

    所以我不想低估擎天柱的難度。這是一件極其困難的事情,尤其是要創造出一隻像人類的手一樣靈巧和有能力的手,這是一件令人難以置信的事情——人類的手是一件令人難以置信的事情。

  • But the more you study the human hand, the more incredible you realize the human hand is and why you need four fingers and the thumb, why the fingers have certain degrees of freedom, why the various muscles are of different strengths, the fingers are of different lengths.

    但是你對人手的研究越多,你就越能意識到人手是多麼令人難以置信,為什麼需要四個手指和拇指,為什麼手指有一定的自由度,為什麼各種肌肉有不同的強度,手指有不同的長度。

  • And it turns out actually that those are all there for a reason. And so making the hand and from -- because most of the actuators just like the human hand, the muscles that control your hand are actually primarily your forearm. The Optimus hand and forearm is an incredibly difficult engineering challenge.

    事實證明,這一切的存在都是有原因的。因此,製作手部和——因為大多數執行器就像人的手一樣,控製手部的肌肉實際上主要是前臂。擎天柱的手和前臂是個極為困難的工程挑戰。

  • I'd say it's more difficult than the rest of -- from an electromechanical standpoint, the forearm and the hand is more difficult than the entire rest of the robot. So -- but really, in order to have a useful generalized robot, you do need this -- you need an incredible hand.

    我想說它比機器人的其他部分更難——從機電角度來看,前臂和手比機器人的整個其餘部分更難。所以——但實際上,為了擁有一個有用的通用機器人,你確實需要這個——你需要一隻不可思議的手。

  • And then you need the real-world AI and you need to be able to scale up that production to have it be relevant because it's not relevant to it's just a few hundred robots. But so you need to be able to make Optimus robots at volumes comparable to vehicles, if not significantly higher.

    然後你需要現實世界的人工智慧,你需要能夠擴大生產規模以使其具有相關性,因為它與僅僅幾百個機器人無關。但因此,你需要能夠製造出與汽車相當的、甚至更高產量的擎天柱機器人。

  • So you can try to make $1 million or something per year, turn 1 million Optimus robots per year, that manufacturing challenge is immense, considering that the supply chain doesn't exist. So with cars, you've got an existing supply chain. With computers, you've got an existing supply chain. With a humanoid robot, there is no supply chain.

    因此,你可以嘗試每年賺取 100 萬美元左右,每年生產 100 萬台 Optimus 機器人,考慮到供應鏈不存在,製造挑戰是巨大的。因此,對於汽車來說,你已經擁有了現有的供應鏈。有了計算機,你就有了現有的供應鏈。有了人形機器人,就沒有供應鏈了。

  • So in order to manufacture that, Tesla actually has to be very vertically integrated and manufacturer -- very deep into the supply chain, manufacture the parts internally, as there just is no supply chain. So this is the kind of thing where I'm like, if I put myself in a position of a startup trying to make a humanoid robot, I'm like, I don't know how to do it without an immense amount of manufacturing technology.

    因此,為了實現這一目標,特斯拉實際上必須高度垂直整合並製造——深入供應鏈,在內部製造零件,因為那裡根本沒有供應鏈。所以,如果我把自己置於一家試圖製造人形機器人的新創公司的位置,我會想,如果沒有大量的製造技術,我不知道該怎麼做。

  • So that's why I think like Tesla and -- almost a unique -- I think a unique position when you consider manufacturing technology scaling real-world AI and the -- and a truly dexterous hand. Those are generally the things that are missing when you read about other robots that just don't have those three things.

    所以這就是為什麼我認為特斯拉——幾乎是一個獨特的——我認為當你考慮製造技術擴展現實世界的人工智慧和——以及一隻真正靈巧的手時,這是一個獨特的地位。當你讀到有關其他機器人不具備這三樣東西時,通常會發現這些是缺少的東西。

  • So I think we can achieve all those things -- those three things with an immense amount of work. And that is the game plan. So like my fundamental concern with regard to how much voting control I have in Tesla is if I go ahead and build this enormous robot army, can I just be ousted at some point in the future?

    所以我認為我們可以透過大量的工作來實現這三件事。這就是比賽計劃。因此,我對於自己在特斯拉擁有多少投票控制權的根本擔憂是,如果我繼續建立這支龐大的機器人軍隊,我是否會在未來的某個時候被趕下台?

  • That's my biggest concern. If I -- that is really the only thing I'm trying to address with this -- what's called compensation, but it's not like I'm going to go spend the money. It's just -- if we build this robot army, do I have at least a strong influence over that robot army? It's not control but a strong influence. That's what it comes down to in a nutshell. Like I don't feel comfortable building that robot army if I don't have at least a strong influence.

    這是我最擔心的事。如果我——這確實是我唯一想解決的問題——所謂的補償,但這並不意味著我要花掉這筆錢。只是──如果我們建立這支機器人軍隊,我是否至少對這支機器人軍隊有強大的影響力?這不是控制,而是一種強大的影響力。簡而言之,這就是事實。就像如果我沒有強大的影響力,我就不願意建立那支機器人軍隊。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Great. Thank you. We've already covered Robotaxi expansion. Unfortunately, the question after that is another future product question. So we're going to have to skip that.

    偉大的。謝謝。我們已經介紹了 Robotaxi 的擴充。不幸的是,之後的問題又是另一個未來產品的問題。所以我們必須跳過這一步。

  • The next one, though, is can you update us on the $16.5 billion Samsung chip deal in Taylor? Given the importance of semiconductors to autonomy and Tesla's AI-driven future, what gives you confidence Samsung can fulfill AI6 at Tesla's timelines and achieve relatively better yields and cost versus TSMC?

    不過,下一個問題是,您能否向我們介紹泰勒 165 億美元的三星晶片交易的最新情況?鑑於半導體對自動駕駛和特斯拉人工智慧驅動的未來的重要性,您如何相信三星能夠按照特斯拉的時間表實現 AI6,並且比台積電實現更好的產量和成本?

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Okay. So I'm going to give quite a long answer to this question because I have to unpack this question and then answer the unpacked version. So first of all, I have nothing but great things to say about Samsung. They're amazing company. And Samsung, it is worth noting, does manufacture our AI4 computer and does a great job doing that.

    好的。所以我要對這個問題給一個相當長的答案,因為我必須解開這個問題,然後回答解開的版本。首先,我對三星只有讚美之詞。他們是一家很棒的公司。值得注意的是,三星確實生產了我們的 AI4 計算機,並且做得非常出色。

  • So now with the AI5, and here's -- I need to make a point of clarification relative to some comments I've made publicly before, which is we're actually going to focus both TSMC and Samsung initially on AI5. So the AI5 chip designed by Tesla is I think it's an amazing design. I have spent almost every weekend or last few months with the chip design team working on AI5.

    現在有了 AI5,這裡——我需要就我之前公開發表的一些評論作出澄清,那就是我們實際上將首先關注台積電和三星的 AI5。所以我認為特斯拉設計的AI5晶片是一個了不起的設計。我幾乎每個週末或最近幾個月都和晶片設計團隊一起研究AI5。

  • And I don't hand out praise easily, but I have to say that I think the Telechip team is really designing an incredible chip here. This is by some metrics, the AI5 chip will be 40 times better than the AI4 chip, not 40%, 40 times because we have a detailed understanding of the entire software and hardware stack. So we're designing the hardware to address all of the pain points in software.

    我不會輕易給予讚揚,但我不得不說,我認為 Telechip 團隊確實設計出了令人難以置信的晶片。根據一些指標,AI5 晶片將比 AI4 晶片好 40 倍,而不是 40%,而是 40 倍,因為我們對整個軟體和硬體堆疊有詳細的了解。因此,我們正在設計硬體來解決軟體中的所有痛點。

  • So I don't think there really isn't anyone that's doing this -- the entire stack all the way through real world calibrating against the real world where you've got cars and robots in real world that -- like we know what the chip needs to do, and we know what, just as importantly, we know what the chip doesn't need to do.

    所以我認為實際上沒有人這樣做——整個堆疊通過現實世界進行校準,以適應現實世界,現實世界中有汽車和機器人——就像我們知道晶片需要做什麼,我們知道什麼,同樣重要的是,我們知道晶片不需要做什麼。

  • Give you some examples here. With the AI5, we deleted the the legacy GPU or the traditional GPU, which is it's in AI4. But AI5 does not have -- we just lead the legacy GPU because it basically is a GPU. So we also believe the image signal processor and there's like a long list of deletions that are very important.

    這裡給你舉幾個例子。在 AI5 中,我們刪除了舊式 GPU 或傳統 GPU,它位於 AI4 中。但 AI5 沒有——我們只是引領傳統的 GPU,因為它基本上就是一個 GPU。因此,我們也認為影像訊號處理器和一長串的刪除非常重要。

  • As a result of these deletions, we can actually put AI5 in a half reticle and with good margin for the traces from the memory to the trip -- the Tesla trip accelerators, the ARM CPU course and the PCI -- the PCI blocks. So this is a beautiful chip. I've poured so much life energy to this chip personally. And I'm confident this will be -- this is going to be a winner, next level. So it makes sense to have both Samsung and TSMC focus on AI5.

    由於這些刪除,我們實際上可以將 AI5 放入半個標線中,並為從記憶體到行程的軌跡(特斯拉行程加速器、ARM CPU 課程和 PCI(PCI 區塊))留出良好的餘地。所以這是一個漂亮的晶片。我親自為這個晶片注入了太多的生命能量。我相信這將是——這將是下一個級別的勝利者。因此,三星和台積電都專注於 AI5 是有道理的。

  • And so like technically, the Samsung fab has a slightly more advanced equipment than the TSMC fab. These will both be made in the US that one TSMC in Arizona, Samsung, and Texas. But it's -- we're going to make -- starting off just to be confident of having -- our goal -- explicit goal is to have an oversupply of AI5 chips. Because if we have too many AI5 chips for the cars and robots, we can always put them in the data center.

    從技術上講,三星晶圓廠的設備比台積電晶圓廠稍微先進。這些都將在美國生產:一家是亞利桑那州的台積電,另一家是三星,還有一家是德州的。但我們要做的就是——首先要有信心——我們的目標——明確的目標是實現 AI5 晶片的供過於求。因為如果我們有太多用於汽車和機器人的 AI5 晶片,我們總是可以將它們放在資料中心。

  • So we already use AI4 for training in our data center. So we have a combination of AI4 and NVIDIA hardware. So we're not about to replace NVIDIA, to be clear, but we do use both in combination, AI4 and NVIDIA hardware and the AI5 excess production we can always put in our data centers. NVIDIA keeps improving. The challenge that they have is that they've got to satisfy a large range -- a lot of requirements from a lot of customers.

    因此,我們已經在資料中心使用 AI4 進行訓練。因此,我們將 AI4 和 NVIDIA 硬體結合在一起。因此,需要明確的是,我們不會取代 NVIDIA,但我們確實結合了 AI4 和 NVIDIA 硬件,並且我們可以將 AI5 過剩產能放入我們的資料中心。NVIDIA 不斷進步。他們面臨的挑戰是必須滿足大量客戶的需求。

  • But Tesla only has to satisfy requirements from one customer at Tesla. That makes the design job radically easier and means we can delete a lot of complexity from the chip. Like I can't emphasize how important this is.

    但特斯拉只需要滿足一位客戶的要求。這使得設計工作變得非常簡單,意味著我們可以從晶片中刪除許多複雜性。我無法強調這有多重要。

  • So like when you look at the various logic blocks in the chip, as you increase the number of logic blocks, you also increase the interconnections between logic blocks. So if you think about like there's just highways, like how many highways do you need to connect the various parts of the chip?

    因此,當您查看晶片中的各種邏輯塊時,隨著邏輯塊數量的增加,邏輯塊之間的互連也會增加。因此,如果您考慮一下高速公路,那麼您需要多少高速公路來連接晶片的各個部分?

  • And especially if you're not sure how much data is going to go between each logic block on a chip, then you end up having giant highways going all over the place. It's a very -- like it becomes almost impossibly difficult design problem. And NVIDIA has done an amazing job of dealing with almost an impossibly difficult set of requirements.

    特別是如果你不確定晶片上每個邏輯區塊之間要傳輸多少數據,那麼最終你就會在各處看到巨大的高速公路。這是一個非常——幾乎不可能解決的設計問題。NVIDIA 在處理幾乎不可能實現的一系列要求方面做得非常出色。

  • But in our case, we're going for radical simplicity. And the net effect is that I think AI5 will be the best performance per watt, maybe by a factor of 2 or 3 and the best performance per dollar for AI maybe by a factor of 10. So that's -- we'll have to -- the proof is in the pudding, so obviously, we actually get this ship made and made it scale. But that's what it looks like.

    但在我們的例子中,我們追求的是徹底的簡化。最終結果是,我認為 AI5 的每瓦性能將達到最佳,可能高出 2 倍或 3 倍,而每美元性能將達到最佳,可能高出 10 倍。所以,我們必須——實踐出真知,所以顯然,我們確實製造了這艘船,並使其按比例擴大。但看起來就是這樣。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Great. Thank you, Elon. We've already covered unsupervised FSD. So the next question is, instead of trying to replace Hardware 3 with Hardware 4, why not give an equal incentive to trade in for a new vehicle?

    偉大的。謝謝你,埃隆。我們已經討論過無監督 FSD。所以下一個問題是,與其試圖用硬體 4 取代硬體 3,為什麼不提供同等的誘因來換購新車呢?

  • Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

    Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. We're not completely given up on Hardware 3. However, over the last year, we've offered the customers the option to transfer FSD to their new vehicle, which at times we've been running some promotions if they got FSD, they can get better preferential rates. So we've been definitely taking care of this. But we do want to solve autonomy first and then we'll come back with a way to take care of these customers.

    是的。我們並沒有完全放棄硬體 3。然而,在過去的一年裡,我們為客戶提供了將 FSD 轉移到新車上的選項,有時我們會推出一些促銷活動,如果他們購買了 FSD,他們可以獲得更好的優惠價格。所以我們一直在認真處理這個問題。但我們確實希望先解決自主問題,然後再想辦法照顧這些客戶。

  • These customers are very important. They were the early adapters. For what it's worth, my daily commuter is a Hardware 3 car, which I use FSD on a daily basis. So we will definitely take care of you guys.

    這些客戶非常重要。他們是早期的適應者。不管怎樣,我每天通勤的車是一輛 Hardware 3 汽車,我每天都使用它的 FSD。所以我們一定會照顧你們的。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

    Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

  • And in addition, once the V14 release series is fully done, we are planning on working on a V14 light version for Hardware 3 probably expected in Q2 next year.

    此外,一旦 V14 發布系列全部完成,我們計劃為 Hardware 3 開發 V14 精簡版,預計在明年第二季發布。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Awesome. Thanks, Ashok. All righty. Our final question from Say is how long until we see self-driving Tesla semi trucks? And could you see this technology replacing trains?

    驚人的。謝謝,阿肖克。好的。Say 提出的最後一個問題是,我們還要多久才能看到自動駕駛的特斯拉半拖車?您認為這項技術會取代火車嗎?

  • Mike Donoughe - Executive Vice President, Vehicle Engineering and Manufacturing

    Mike Donoughe - Executive Vice President, Vehicle Engineering and Manufacturing

  • Yeah. So I guess I'll start with that in terms of the semi production plan and schedule. So the factory is going on schedule. We've completed the building and are installing the equipment now. We've got our fleet of validation trucks driving on the road.

    是的。所以我想我會從半生產計劃和時間表開始。因此工廠的建設正在按計劃進行。我們已經完成了建築,現在正在安裝設備。我們的驗證卡車車隊正在路上行駛。

  • We'll have larger builds towards the end of this year and then our first online builds in the first part of next year, ramping into the Q2 timing with real volume coming in the back half of the year. So that's going quite well and that's the first step, obviously, getting autonomous trucks on the road.

    我們將在今年年底前進行更大規模的建設,然後在明年上半年進行首次線上建設,進入第二季度,實際產量將在今年下半年出現。一切進展順利,這顯然是讓自動駕駛卡車上路的第一步。

  • In terms of trains, they're really great for long point-to-point deliveries are super efficient, but that last mile, the load, unload can be better served for shorter distances with autonomous semis and that would be great.

    就火車而言,它們非常適合長距離點對點運輸,而且效率極高,但最後一英里的裝載和卸載可以通過自動駕駛半掛車在較短的距離內更好地完成,那就太好了。

  • And so we do expect that to probably shift as we really -- as Elon said, change the way transportation is considered. And so we're looking forward to that time line. And Ashok, I know you can take the full self-driving part.

    因此,我們確實預計這種情況可能會改變,正如伊隆所說,改變人們對交通的看法。因此,我們期待著這個時間表。阿肖克,我知道你可以完成全自動駕駛部分。

  • Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

    Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

  • Yeah. Currently, the team is super focused on solving for passenger vehicle autonomy. That said, the same technology will extend quite easily to the semi truck once we have a little bit of data from the semi trucks.

    是的。目前,該團隊高度專注於解決乘用車自動駕駛問題。也就是說,一旦我們從半拖車上獲得一些數據,同樣的技術就可以輕鬆擴展到半拖車上。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Great. And now we will move over to analyst questions. Emmanuel, Wolfe.

    偉大的。現在我們來回答分析師的問題。伊曼紐爾,沃爾夫。

  • Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

    Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Thanks so much. Hi, everybody. So Elon, you talked about expanding production of vehicles as fast as possible now that you have confidence in the unsupervised autonomy. How should we think about that in the context of your existing capacity of 3 million units? Is that where you're hoping to get volume to? What timeline are we talking about?

    偉大的。非常感謝。大家好。所以埃隆,既然您對無人監督的自動駕駛技術有了信心,您就談到盡快擴大汽車產量。在現有 300 萬台產能的情況下,我們該如何思考這個問題?這就是您希望達到的音量嗎?我們談的是什麼時間表?

  • And would this require some level of boosting or incentivizing demand? Like would this basically be prioritizing volume over near-term profitability given the longer-term opportunity.

    這是否需要一定程度的刺激或激勵需求?就像,考慮到長期機會,這基本上會優先考慮數量而不是短期盈利能力。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Well, our capacity isn't quite 3 million. But it will be 3 million at some point. Aspirationally, it could be 3 million within -- we could probably hit an annualized rate of 3 million within 24 months, I think, maybe less than 24 months.

    嗯,我們的容量還不到 300 萬。但最終會達到 300 萬。我們的理想目標是在 24 個月內達到 300 萬的年化成長率,我想,也許不到 24 個月。

  • Bearing in mind like there's an entire like supply chain, like a vast supply chain that's going to also move in tandem with that. So -- but we're going to expand production as fast as we can and as fast as our suppliers can keep up with it.

    記住,有一個完整的供應鏈,一個龐大的供應鏈也將隨之同步移動。所以——但我們會盡快擴大生產,並且讓我們的供應商跟上。

  • And then we're going to think about where we build incremental factories beyond that. Like the single biggest expansion in production would be the Cybercab, which starts production in Q2 next year. That's really a vehicle that's optimized for full autonomy. In fact, it does not have a steering wheel or pedals and is really an engineering optimization on minimizing cost per -- like fully considered cost per mile of operation.

    然後我們會考慮在哪裡建造增量工廠。例如,單次生產中最大的擴張就是 Cyber​​cab,它將於明年第二季開始生產。這確實是一輛針對完全自動駕駛而優化的車輛。事實上,它沒有方向盤或踏板,而是一種真正意義上的工程優化,旨在最大限度地降低每英里運營成本——充分考慮每英里的運營成本。

  • So that's -- for our other vehicles, there's still have a little bit of the horseless carriage thing going on where obviously, you've got -- you're still -- you've got steering wheels and pedals and you're designing a car that people might want to go very fast acceleration in tight cornering, like high-performance cars. Then you're going to design a different car than one that is optimized for a comfortable ride, but doesn't expect to go past 85 or 90 miles an hour, and it's just aiming for a gentle ride the whole time. That's what Cybercab is.

    所以,對於我們的其他車輛來說,仍然有一點無馬馬車的影子,顯然,你有——你仍然有——你有方向盤和踏板,你設計的汽車人們可能希望它在急轉彎時加速非常快,就像高性能汽車一樣。然後,你要設計一輛與為舒適駕駛而優化的汽車不同的汽車,但不要期望超過每小時 85 或 90 英里的速度,而只是旨在始終平穩駕駛。這就是 Cyber​​cab。

  • So yes. So it's -- do I think we'll sacrifice margins? I don't think so. I think the demand will be pretty nutty. Like here's the killer app really, what it comes down to, is can you text while you're in the car? And if you tell someone, yes, the car is now so good, you can be on your phone and text the entire time while you're in the car, anyone who can buy the car will buy the car. That is it, end of story.

    是的。那麼——我是否認為我們會犧牲利潤?我不這麼認為。我認為需求將會非常瘋狂。就像這真的是一個殺手級應用程序,歸根結底,你可以在車裡發短信嗎?如果你告訴別人,是的,這輛車現在非常好,你可以在車裡一直打電話發短信,任何能買這輛車的人都會買這輛車。就是這樣,故事結束了。

  • So that's what everybody wants to do. In fact, not everyone want it, they do do that. And that's why, in fact, the reason you've seen like there's been an uptick in accidents pretty much worldwide is because people are texting and driving.

    這就是每個人都想做的事。事實上,並不是每個人都希望如此,但他們確實會這麼做。事實上,這就是為什麼全世界範圍內的交通事故數量有所增加,是因為人們邊開車邊發短信。

  • So Autopilot actually dramatically improves the safety here because if somebody is looking down their phone, they're not driving very well. So that's really the game changer. And we do see -- like at this point, I feel essentially 100% confident, say not essentially -- 100% confident that we can solve on full self-driving at a safety level much greater than human. So we've released 14.1. We've got a technology road map that's, I think, pretty amazing.

    因此,自動駕駛儀實際上極大地提高了安全性,因為如果有人低頭看手機,他們就無法很好地駕駛。這確實改變了遊戲規則。我們確實看到——就像在這一點上,我基本上有 100% 的信心,可以說不是基本上——100% 的信心,我們可以在比人類更高的安全水平上解決完全自動駕駛的問題。所以我們發布了 14.1。我們的技術路線圖,我認為相當棒。

  • We'll be adding reasoning to the car. Our world simulator for reinforcement learning is pretty incredible. Like when you see the Tesla Reality Simulator, it's -- you can't tell the difference between the video that's generated by the Tesla Reality Simulator and the actual video. It looks exactly the same. So that allows us to have a very powerful reinforcement learning loop to further improve the Telsa AI. We're going to be increasing the parameter account by an order of magnitude.

    我們將為汽車添加推理功能。我們的強化學習世界模擬器非常不可思議。就像當你看到特斯拉現實模擬器時,你無法分辨特斯拉現實模擬器產生的影片和實際影片之間的差異。看起來一模一樣。這樣我們就有了一個非常強大的強化學習循環來進一步改進特斯拉人工智慧。我們將把參數帳戶增加一個數量級。

  • That's not in 14.1. There are also a number of other improvements to the AI just that are quite radical. So it's -- this car will feel like it is a living creature. That's how good the AI will get with the AI4 computer with this -- before AI5. And then AI5, like I said, is by some metrics, 40 times better. Let's just say safely, it's a 10x improvement.

    14.1 版本沒有這個功能。 AI 方面也有一些其他的改進,只是這些改進相當徹底。所以——這輛車感覺起來就像是個活生生的生物。這就是在 AI5 之前,AI 在 AI4 電腦上所能達到的水平。然後,正如我所說,AI5 根據某些指標要好 40 倍。我們可以肯定地說,這是一個 10 倍的改進。

  • So it might almost be too much intelligence for a car. I do wonder like how much intelligence should you have in a car. It might get bored actually. And then one of the things I thought like if we got all these cars that maybe are bored, well, while they are -- if they are bored, we could actually have a giant distributed in inference fleet and say like, well, if they're not actively driving, let's just have a giant distributed in inference fleet.

    因此,對於汽車來說,智慧化程度可能太高了。我確實想知道汽車應該有多聰明。事實上它可能會感到無聊。然後我想到的一件事是,如果我們得到所有這些可能感到無聊的汽車,好吧,當它們感到無聊時 - 如果它們感到無聊,我們實際上可以擁有一個巨大的分佈式推理車隊,並且說,好吧,如果它們沒有積極駕駛,我們就擁有一個巨大的分佈式推理車隊。

  • At some point, if you've got like tens of millions of cars in the fleet or maybe at some point, 100 million cars in the fleet, and let's say they had -- at that point, like I don't know, 1 kilowatt of inference capability of -- high-performance inference capability, that's 100 gigawatts of inference distributed with power and cooling taken -- with cooling and power conversion taken care of. So that seems like a pretty significant asset.

    在某個時候,如果你的車隊中有數千萬輛汽車,或者在某個時候,車隊中有 1 億輛汽車,假設它們在那個時候,比如我不知道,有 1 千瓦的推理能力 - 高性能推理能力,那就是 100 千兆瓦的推理分佈,帶有電力和冷卻 - 帶有冷卻和電力轉換。所以這看起來是一項相當重要的資產。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Great. Thanks, Elon. Adam, Morgan Stanley.

    偉大的。謝謝,埃隆。亞當,摩根士丹利。

  • It seems like we might be having some audio issues with Adam. So we'll come back to you.

    看起來我們可能遇到了一些 Adam 的音訊問題。所以我們會回來找你。

  • Dan, Barclays.

    丹,巴克萊銀行。

  • Dan Levy - Analyst

    Dan Levy - Analyst

  • Hi. Good evening. Thank you for taking the question. Elon, I know that Tesla is really focused on with master plan for bringing AI into the physical world. And I think we've seen over the past, this willingness for Tesla to engage and go into new markets, new TAMs.

    你好。晚安.感謝您回答這個問題。伊隆,我知道特斯拉非常專注於將人工智慧帶入物理世界的總體規劃。我認為,我們過去已經看到,特斯拉願意參與並進入新市場、新 TAM。

  • So when you think about the growth prospects, how do we define the areas that are really within Tesla's core competency versus where do you draw the line for markets or AI applications that are outside of Tesla's core competency?

    因此,當您考慮成長前景時,我們如何定義真正屬於特斯拉核心競爭力的領域,以及您如何劃分特斯拉核心競爭力以外的市場或人工智慧應用的界限?

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Actually, I'm not sure what you mean by AI applications outside of Tesla's core competency. But we didn't have any of these core competencies when we started. So it's like we had zero core competencies, total competency of zero actually. So I mean, you can think of Tesla is like, I don't know, a dozen start-ups in one company and I've initiated every one of those startups. So it's -- we used to make battery packs, stationary battery packs, but now we do make them for the home, make them for utility scale with Powerwall and Megapack.

    其實我不太清楚你說的特斯拉核心競爭力以外的AI應用是什麼意思。但我們剛開始時並沒有任何這些核心競爭力。所以就好像我們的核心競爭力為零,整體競爭力其實是零。所以我的意思是,你可以認為特斯拉就像一家公司裡有十幾家新創公司,而我創辦了每一家新創公司。所以——我們過去生產電池組、固定電池組,但現在我們生產家用電池組,使用 Powerwall 和 Megapack 生產公用事業規模的電池組。

  • We've created the Supercharger network globally. No one else has created a global Supercharger network, in fact, at North American Supercharge network, so good that basically that every other manufacturer in North America is converted to our standard and uses our -- the Tesla Supercharger network. But if it were so easy, why don't they just do it.

    我們在全球範圍內創建了超級充電網路。事實上,沒有其他人創建過全球超級充電網絡,北美超級充電網絡非常好,基本上北美所有其他製造商都轉換為我們的標準並使用我們的——特斯拉超級充電網絡。但如果真的這麼容易,他們為什麼不直接去做呢?

  • And the chip design team started that from scratch. The Tesla AI software team was started from scratch. I literally just say, hey, we're going to start this thing. I post it on Twitter, now X, and then join us if you'd like to build it.

    晶片設計團隊從零開始。特斯拉AI軟體團隊是從零開始組成的。我只是說,嘿,我們要開始這件事了。我將它發佈在 Twitter(現在是 X)上,如果您想建立它,請加入我們。

  • In fact, Ashok was, I believe, the first person I interviewed for the Tesla Autopilot team, which are now call Tesla AI software team, which because it is AI software team. So it's core competencies created while you wait.

    事實上,我相信 Ashok 是我為特斯拉自動駕駛儀團隊採訪的第一個人,該團隊現在被稱為特斯拉人工智慧軟體團隊,因為它是一個人工智慧軟體團隊。因此,這是在等待過程中創建的核心競爭力。

  • And Optimus at scale is the infinite money glitch. It's like -- this is -- it's difficult to express the magnitude of -- like if you've got something that -- like if Optimus, I think probably achieve 5x the productivity of a person per year because it can operate the 24/7, it doesn't even need to charge. You can operate it tethered so it's plugged in the whole time. And what -- so that's why I call it like, if you drove sustainable abundance, where working will be optional.

    而 Optimus 的規模就是無限金錢故障。就像——這——很難表達其規模——例如如果你有某種東西——比如 Optimus,我認為它每年可能實現一個人生產力的 5 倍,因為它可以全天候運行,甚至不需要充電。您可以將其連接起來進行操作,這樣它就可以一直插著電源。這就是為什麼我稱之為,如果你推動永續的富足,那麼工作將是可選的。

  • There's a limit to how much AI can do in terms of enhancing the productivity of humans, but there is not really a limit to AI that is embodied. That's why I called the infinite money glitch.

    人工智慧在提高人類生產力方面的能力是有限的,但其具體表現形式卻是無限的。這就是我所說的無限金錢故障的原因。

  • Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

    Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

  • I mean, one thing which I'll further add is, I mean, people forget like our first iteration of Autopilot was 10 years back. So Elon had started this way back in the day.

    我的意思是,我要補充的一點是,人們忘記了我們的第一次自動駕駛儀迭代是在 10 年前。所以埃隆早就開始這樣做了。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Yeah. We've got the trees to prove it.

    是的。我們有樹木可以證明這一點。

  • Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

    Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

  • Exactly. And then even on the Optimus side, right, as much as people think, okay, this is a new thing. I still remember, was it four-plus years back, we were in the finance meeting with Elon and Elon said, hey, our car is a robot on wheels. And that's where we started developing. In fact, most of the engineering team, which is working on Optimus, has come from the vehicle side.

    確切地。然後,即使在擎天柱方面,正如人們所想的那樣,好吧,這是一件新事物。我還記得,那是四年多前,我們和伊隆一起參加財務會議,伊隆說,嘿,我們的車是一個帶輪子的機器人。這就是我們開始發展的地方。事實上,參與 Optimus 研發的工程團隊大部分成員都來自汽車方面。

  • And that's why when we talk about manufacturing process, we have the wherewithal because the same engineers who worked in -- back in the day on drive units are working on actuators now. So that's where we can -- if there is any company which can do it at scale, that is going to be us.

    這就是為什麼當我們談論製造過程時,我們有足夠的資金,因為過去在驅動裝置上工作的工程師現在正在研究執行器。這就是我們能夠做到的——如果有任何公司能夠大規模地做到這一點,那就是我們。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • But we also have actually added a lot of new engineers as well to the team. So there's actually a lot of the credit for the Optimus engineering is actually also new engineers, many of them that are just out of college, actually -- so the Optimus engineering team is a very talented engineering team. I had to like, wow, actually.

    但實際上我們也為團隊增加了許多新工程師。因此,Optimus 工程的很大一部分功勞實際上也歸功於新工程師,其中許多人實際上剛從大學畢業——因此,Optimus 工程團隊是一支非常有才華的工程團隊。事實上,我不得不說,哇。

  • So -- and the Optimus reviews at this point are there's the engineering review -- and then there's the manufacturing review being done simultaneously with an iterative loop between engineering design and manufacturing because then we see we designed something that we say like, man, that's really difficult to make. We need to change that design to make it easier to manufacture.

    所以 — — 此時 Optimus 的評審是工程評審 — — 然後是製造評審,同時進行工程設計和製造之間的迭代循環,因為我們看到我們設計了一些東西,我們會說,夥計,這真的很難製造。我們需要改變該設計以使其更易於製造。

  • So we've made radical improvements to the design of Optimus while increasing the functionality but making it actually possible to manufacture. Like I'd say Optimus 2 is almost impossible to manufacture, frankly.

    因此,我們對 Optimus 的設計進行了徹底的改進,在增加功能的同時,也使其真正具備製造能力。坦白說,我想說 Optimus 2 幾乎不可能製造。

  • But to (inaudible) point, we've gone from a person in a robot outfit to what people have seen with Optimus 2.5 where it's doing kung fu and I was like Optimus was at the Tron premier doing kung fu just out in the open like with Jared Leto.

    但就(聽不清楚)這一點而言,我們已經從一個穿著機器人服裝的人變成了人們所看到的擎天柱 2.5 在練功夫的樣子,我感覺擎天柱就像在《電子世界爭霸戰》首映式上和傑瑞德·萊託一起在公開場合練功夫一樣。

  • There wasn't -- nobody was controlling it. It was just doing kung fu with Jared Leto at the Tron premier. You can see the videos online. And actually, the funny thing is like a lot of people walked past it thinking it was just a person.

    沒有——沒有人控制它。這只是在《電子世界爭霸戰》首映式上與傑瑞德雷託一起表演功夫。您可以在線觀看影片。事實上,有趣的是,很多人走過它時都以為它只是一個人。

  • Even though with Optimus 2.5, you can see that it has a waist that's 3 inches wide. It's obviously not a human. So -- but the movements were so human-like that people didn't realize -- a lot of people didn't realize they were looking at a robot. So -- and what I'm saying is like Optimus 3 will be a giant improvement on that and made at scale.

    即使使用 Optimus 2.5,您也可以看到它的腰部有 3 英吋寬。顯然這不是人類。所以——但是這些動作太像人類了,以至於人們沒有意識到——很多人沒有意識到他們正在看著一個機器人。所以——我想說的是,Optimus 3 將會在此基礎上進行巨大的改進,並且規模化生產。

  • But like I said, a very difficult thing. The Optimus engineering and manufacturing reviews and the Friday night meeting with Optimus, which sometimes goes to midnight. And then my Saturday meeting is the Saturday afternoons with the AI5 chip design team. So those two things are crucial to the future of the company.

    但就像我說的,這是一件非常困難的事。Optimus 工程和製造評審以及週五晚上與 Optimus 的會議,有時會持續到午夜。然後我的周六會議是周六下午與 AI5 晶片設計團隊一起舉行的。因此,這兩件事對公司的未來至關重要。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Great. Dan, do you have a follow-up?

    偉大的。丹,你還有後續消息嗎?

  • Dan Levy - Analyst

    Dan Levy - Analyst

  • Yeah. Just as a related -- maybe you could just talk about to what extent are the AI efforts at Tesla and xAI complementary? Or are they just different forms of AI? Maybe you can just help distinguish for the audience. Thank you.

    是的。作為一個相關問題——也許您可以談談特斯拉和 xAI 的人工智慧努力在多大程度上是互補的?或者它們只是不同形式的人工智慧?也許你只能幫助觀眾分辨。謝謝。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Yeah, there are different forms of AI. So the xAI is -- Grok is like a giant model that you could not possibly squeeze Grok onto a car. That's for sure. It is a giant beast of a model. It's -- with Grok, it's trying to solve for artificial general intelligence, with a massive amount of AI training, compute, and inference compute. So for example, Grok 5 will actually only run effectively on a GB300. That's how much of a beast that Grok 5 is.

    是的,人工智慧有不同的形式。所以 xAI —— Grok 就像一個巨大的模型,你不可能將 Grok 擠到汽車上。那是肯定的。它是一個模型中的巨獸。它正在透過 Grok 嘗試解決通用人工智慧問題,需要進行大量的人工智慧訓練、計算和推理計算。例如,Grok 5 實際上只能在 GB300 上有效運作。這就是 Grok 5 的強大之處。

  • So -- whereas Tesla's models are, I don't know, maybe about less than 10% of the size, maybe closer to 5% the size of Grok. So yeah, they're really coming at the problem from very different angles. xAI and Grok are -- they're competing with Google Gemini and OpenAI ChatGPT and that kind of thing.

    所以——而特斯拉的模型,我不知道,可能大約不到 Grok 的 10%,可能接近 Grok 的 5%。是的,他們確實是從不同的角度來看這個問題。 xAI 和 Grok 正在與 Google Gemini 和 OpenAI ChatGPT 等競爭。

  • So -- and some of it is complementary, for example, for Grok Voice, being able to interact with Grok in the car is cool. Grok Optimus voice recognition and voice generation is Grok. So that's helpful there. But they are coming at it from opposite ends of the spectrum.

    所以 — — 其中一些是互補的,例如,對於 Grok Voice 來說,能夠在車內與 Grok 互動很酷。Grok Optimus 語音辨識和語音生成是 Grok。這很有幫助。但他們的觀點卻截然相反。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • All righty. Adam, let's give another try when you're ready, please unmute yourself for the next question. All righty. Unfortunately, still having audio issues.

    好的。亞當,當你準備好時,我們再試一次,請取消靜音以回答下一個問題。好的。不幸的是,仍然存在音訊問題。

  • Walt, LightShed.

    沃爾特,LightShed。

  • Walt Piecyk - Analyst

    Walt Piecyk - Analyst

  • Could you hear me now?

    現在你能聽到我說話嗎?

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Walt Piecyk - Analyst

    Walt Piecyk - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you. Just getting back to Austin, if you can remove the safety driver at year-end, is the limitation in the Bay Area just regulatory? Or is it market-by-market learning process? And I guess similarly in the 8 to 10 markets that you mentioned to get added, is the decision there to put a safety attendant in the passenger seat or the safety driver in, is that like your step-by-step process to opening up a market? Or is it really just the regulation in the individual market?

    完美的。謝謝。回到奧斯汀,如果年底可以取消安全駕駛員,灣區的限制僅僅是監管上的嗎?還是這是一個逐一市場學習的過程?我想,同樣地,在您提到的要增加的 8 到 10 個市場中,是否決定在乘客座位上安排一名安全乘務員或安全駕駛員,這是否是您逐步開拓市場的過程?或者這實際上只是個別市場的監管?

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Well, I think even if the regulators weren't making us do it, we'd still do that as the right -- cautious approach to a new market. So just to make sure that we're being paranoid about safety, I think it makes sense to have either a safety driver or safety occupant in the car when we first go to new markets just to confirm that there's not something we're missing.

    嗯,我認為即使監管機構沒有要求我們這樣做,我們仍然會這樣做,因為這是正確的做法——謹慎地對待新市場。因此,為了確保我們對安全問題高度重視,我認為在我們首次進入新市場時,在車上配備安全駕駛員或安全乘員是有意義的,以確認我們沒有遺漏任何東西。

  • Because it all it takes is like 1 in 10,000 trips to go wrong, and you've got an issue. So just to make sure, like, is there some peculiarity about a city like a very difficult intersection or -- I don't know, something that's an unexpected challenge in a city for that 1 in 10,000 situation. So -- and I think we probably could just let a loose in these studies, but we just -- we don't want to take a chance.

    因為只要 10,000 次行程中就有 1 次出錯,就會出現問題。所以只是為了確定,例如,一個城市是否存在一些特殊情況,例如非常困難的十字路口,或者——我不知道,對於一個城市來說,萬分之一的情況是一個意想不到的挑戰。所以 — — 我認為我們或許可以放手進行這些研究,但我們只是 — — 我們不想冒險。

  • And like what we're talking about here is maybe three months of safety driver in a new metro to confirm that it's good and then we take the safety driver off that kind of thing.

    就像我們在這裡談論的,也許在新地鐵上需要三個月的安全駕駛員來確認它是好的,然後我們就會把安全駕駛員從這種事情上撤下來。

  • Walt Piecyk - Analyst

    Walt Piecyk - Analyst

  • Okay. And then on FSD 14. It has a different feel than 13, and it's also, I think, a little different than what it feels like in Austin. Are you -- is it basically different development path that you're doing in terms of the Robotaxi stuff versus what you're dropping to the early adopters?

    好的。然後是 FSD 14。它的感覺與 13 不同,而且我認為,與奧斯汀的感覺也有點不同。就 Robotaxi 產品而言,您所走的開發路徑與您提供給早期採用者的開發路徑本質上有什麼不同嗎?

  • And when you push these new builds, is it that you're looking for notable improvements in intervention rates? Or is that largely solved and it's more about adding the functionality like the parking, the drive modes, or just the overall comfort?

    當您推動這些新建築時,您是否希望幹預率有顯著的提高?或者這個問題基本上已經解決了,只是需要增加一些功能,例如停車、駕駛模式,或只是整體舒適度?

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • No, the first priority when we released a major new software architecture for Autopilot is safety. So it starts off with safety obviously, safety prioritized and then we solve comfort thereafter, which is why I don't recommend people take the initial version, like -- that's why I say like most people should wait until 14.2 before they actually download Version 14 because by 14.2, we will have addressed many of the comfort issues.

    不,當我們發布 Autopilot 的主要新軟體架構時,首要考慮的是安全性。因此,顯然首先要考慮安全性,安全性優先,然後我們再解決舒適度問題,這就是為什麼我不建議人們使用初始版本,就像 - 這就是為什麼我說大多數人應該等到 14.2 才真正下載版本 14,因為到 14.2 時,我們將解決許多舒適度問題。

  • The priority is very much safety first and then thereafter the comfort issues. That's why most people are like, probably it will be a little -- like it will be safe but jerky. And we just need time to smooth the rough edges and solve for comfort in addition to safety with a major news, the Autopilot architecture change. But it really is -- I mean, I know what the road map is for the Tesla real-world AI and that very granular bit of detail.

    首要考慮的是安全問題,其次才是舒適度問題。這就是為什麼大多數人會覺得,它可能會有點——雖然安全,但不穩定。我們只是需要時間來消除粗糙的邊緣,並透過一個重大新聞——自動駕駛儀架構的改變,解決安全性以外的舒適性問題。但事實確實如此——我的意思是,我知道特斯拉現實世界人工智慧的路線圖以及非常細緻的細節。

  • Obviously, Ashok is leading that. And I mean, I spent a lot of time with the team going in like excruciating detail here on what we're doing to improve the real-world AI. And like I said, this car is going to feel like it is a living creature, and that's what AI4 before even AI5.

    顯然,阿肖克是這一領域的領導者。我的意思是,我花了很多時間與團隊一起詳細討論我們為改善現實世界的人工智慧所做的工作。就像我說的,這輛車給人的感覺就像一個活生生的生物,這就是 AI4 甚至 AI5 之前的樣子。

  • Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

    Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

  • Yeah. The road map is super accelerating, like it's like -- so like we're reading so much like release all the stuff we are working on. In terms of like what we ship to customers versus Robotaxi, it's mostly the same. Obviously, customers have some more features like they can choose the car wants to park in a spot or drivers are doing that, which is not super relevant for Robotaxi. But there's some few minor things like those ones. But majority of the algorithms and the architecture, everything is the same between those two platforms.

    是的。路線圖正在超級加速,就像——所以就像我們正在閱讀很多內容,就像發布我們正在研究的所有內容一樣。就我們向客戶運送的貨物和 Robotaxi 運送的貨物而言,基本上是一樣的。顯然,客戶擁有更多功能,例如他們可以選擇汽車停在某個位置或司機正在這樣做,這對 Robotaxi 來說並不是特別重要。但也有一些類似這樣的小事。但這兩個平台之間的大多數演算法和架構都是相同的。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Yeah. But as I mentioned earlier, like we'll be adding reasoning to I don't know, Ashok, is that like reasoning in like 14.3, maybe 14.4, something like that?

    是的。但正如我之前提到的,我們會添加推理,我不知道,阿肖克,那是像 14.3、也許是 14.4 之類的推理嗎?

  • Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

    Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

  • Yeah. [4] by the end of this year for sure.

    是的。 [4] 肯定會在今年年底前實現。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Yeah. So with reasoning, it's literally going to think about which parking spot to pick -- so I was going to say, this is the entrance. But actually, probably there's not a parking spot right at the entrance. If it's a full -- if the parking lot is fairly full, the probability of open parking spot right at the entrance is very low. But actually, what it will simply do is drop you off at the entrance of the store and then go find a parking spot.

    是的。因此,透過推理,它實際上會思考選擇哪個停車位——所以我想說,這是入口。但實際上,入口處可能沒有停車位。如果停車場已經滿了,那麼入口處出現空停車位的可能性就很低。但實際上,它所做的只是將你送到商店入口處,然後去找停車位。

  • But it's going to get very smart about figuring out a parking spot. It's going to spot bigger -- it's going to spot empty spots much better than a human. It's got 360-degree vision. And it's going to -- yeah, like I said, just it's going to use reasoning to solve things.

    但它在尋找停車位方面會變得非常聰明。它將發現更大的東西——它將比人類更好地發現空白點。它具有 360 度視野。是的,就像我說的,它會用推理來解決問題。

  • Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

    Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President of AI

  • And putting that all inside the computer that has AI4 is the actual challenge. That's what the team is working on. Because obviously, you can do reasoning on the server that takes forever. But then in car, you need to make real-time decisions, so putting on the computer that's in the car, that's the challenge.

    而將所有這些放入具有 AI4 的計算機中才是真正的挑戰。這就是團隊正在努力的事情。因為顯然,你可以在伺服器上進行永遠需要的推理。但是在汽車中,你需要做出即時決策,因此在汽車上安裝電腦是一個挑戰。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Yeah. That's why I say like a pretty good understanding of like AI, the giant model level with Grok and with Tesla like I'm confident in saying that Tesla has the -- Tesla AI has the highest intelligence density. When you look at the intelligence per gigabyte, I think like Tesla AI is probably in order of magnitude better than anyone else. And it didn't have any choice because that AI has got to fit in the AI4 computer.

    是的。這就是為什麼我說對人工智慧有相當好的理解,Grok 和特斯拉的巨型模型水平,我有信心說特斯拉擁有——特斯拉人工智慧擁有最高的智慧密度。當你查看每千兆位元組的智慧時,我認為特斯拉人工智慧可能比其他任何人都要好得多。它別無選擇,因為該 AI 必須適合 AI4 電腦。

  • But the discipline of having that level of intelligence density will pay great dividends when you go to something that has an order of magnitude more capability like AI5. Now you have that same intelligence density, but you've got 10 more capability in the computer.

    但是,當你使用像 AI5 這樣具有更高數量級能力的東西時,擁有這種智慧密度等級的紀律將會帶來巨大的回報。現在,您擁有相同的智慧密度,但電腦的功能卻增加了 10 倍。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Colin, Oppenheimer.

    科林·奧本海默。

  • Colin Rusch - Analyst

    Colin Rusch - Analyst

  • Thanks so much, guys. I appreciate you bringing up the challenges of hand dexterity in humanoids along with the complexity of the supply chain and the vertical integration you guys are pursuing. I'm just trying to harmonize the timeline for start of production next year with the current state of the supply chain. And what sounds like a fair amount of work remains on the dexterity before you can really freeze the hardware design and start to scale up production.

    非常感謝大家。我很感謝你們提出人形機器人手部靈活性的挑戰以及供應鏈的複雜性和你們正在追求的垂直整合。我只是想將明年開始生產的時間表與目前的供應鏈狀態相協調。聽起來,在真正確定硬體設計並開始擴大生產規模之前,在靈活性方面還有相當多的工作要做。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Well, the hardware design will not actually be frozen even through startup production. There will be continued generation because a bunch of the things that you discover are very difficult to make. You only find that pretty late in the game. So we'll be doing rolling changes for the Optimus design even after start of production.

    嗯,即使透過啟動生產,硬體設計實際上也不會被凍結。它會不斷地產生,因為你發現的很多東西都是很難製造的。你只會在遊戲的後期才發現這一點。因此,即使在開始生產後,我們也會對 Optimus 設計進行滾動變更。

  • But I do think that the new hand is an incredible piece of engineering. And that's -- we'll -- actually we'll have a production-intent prototype are ready to show off in Q1, probably February or March. And then we're -- yeah, we're going to be building 1 million-unit Optimus production line, hopefully, with the production start towards the end of next year.

    但我確實認為新手是一項令人難以置信的工程傑作。實際上,我們將在第一季(可能是二月或三月)準備展示一個可用於生產的原型。然後我們——是的,我們將建造 100 萬台 Optimus 生產線,希望在明年年底開始生產。

  • But that production ramp will take a while to get to annualized rate of 1 million because it's going to move as fast as the slowest, dummest, least lucky thing out of 10,000 unique items. But it will get to 1 million units. And then ultimately, we'll do Optimus 4. That will be 10 million units. Optimus 5 maybe 50 million or 100 million units. I mean, it's really pretty nutty, yeah.

    但是,產量成長需要一段時間才能達到年產量 100 萬,因為它的成長速度與 10,000 個獨特物品中最慢、最笨、最不幸運的東西一樣快。但產量將達100萬台。最終,我們將推出 Optimus 4。那將是1000萬台。Optimus 5 可能有 5,000 萬台或 1 億台。我的意思是,這確實很瘋狂,是的。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • All righty. That is, unfortunately, all the time we have for Q&A today. Before we conclude, though, Vaibhav has some closing remarks.

    好的。不幸的是,今天我們的問答時間就這麼多了。不過,在我們結束之前,Vaibhav 還有一些結束語。

  • Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

    Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Travis. I want to take the time to talk about an extremely important vote, which is being held on November 6. The meeting will shape the future of Tesla, and we are asking you, as our shareholders, to support Elon's leadership through the two compensation proposals and the reelection of Ira, Kathleen, and Joe to the Board.

    謝謝,崔維斯。我想花點時間談談一次極其重要的投票,該投票將於 11 月 6 日舉行。這次會議將決定特斯拉的未來,我們請求您作為我們的股東,透過兩項薪酬提案以及艾拉、凱瑟琳和喬的重新當選為董事會成員來支持艾隆的領導。

  • Know that it is a team sport. And here at Tesla, the Board is an integral part of the winning team. Shareholders are at the center of everything we do at Tesla, and our special committee has laid out a compensation package, like Elon said, we don't even want to call it a compensation package.

    要知道這是一項團隊運動。在特斯拉,董事會是獲勝團隊不可或缺的一部分。股東是特斯拉一切工作的中心,我們的特別委員會已經制定了薪酬方案,就像伊隆說的,我們甚至不想稱之為薪酬方案。

  • Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

    Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking

  • Yeah. The point is -- I just like -- there needs to be enough voting control to give a strong influence, but not so much that I can't be fired if I go insane, but -- and I think that number is in the mid-20s approximately. As a company that has already gone public, there's no -- we've investigated every possible way to how do you achieve increase voting control without -- is there some way to have like a super voting stock, but there really isn't -- there is no way to have a super voting stock after you've gone public.

    是的。重點是——我只是喜歡——需要有足夠的投票控制權來產生強大的影響力,但又不能太多,以至於如果我發瘋了我就不會被解僱,但是——我認為這個數字大約在 20 多歲左右。作為一家已經上市的公司,我們已經研究了所有可能的方法來增加投票控制權,而無需——有沒有辦法獲得超級投票權股票,但實際上沒有——上市後沒有辦法獲得超級投票權股票。

  • But for example, Google, Meta, many other companies have this, but they had it before they went public. And so it gets, I guess, grandfathered in. Telsa does not have that. So it's just -- like I said, I just don't feel comfortable building a robot army here and not -- and then being ousted because of some asinine recommendations from ISS and Glass Lewis, who have no freaking clue.

    但例如Google、Meta 和許多其他公司都有這個,但他們在上市之前就有了。所以我想,它就被保留了下來。特斯拉沒有這個。所以就像我說的,我只是不太願意在這裡建立一支機器人軍隊,然後因為 ISS 和 Glass Lewis 的一些愚蠢建議而被趕下台,他們根本就不知道。

  • I mean, those guys are corporate terrorists. And the problem -- so let me like explain like the core problem here is that so many of the index funds, the passive funds, vote along the lines of whatever Glass Lewis and ISS recommend. Now, they have made many terrible recommendations in the past that if those recommendations have been followed, it would have been extremely destructive to the future of the company.

    我的意思是,那些人是企業恐怖分子。而問題在於——讓我來解釋一下,這裡的核心問題是,許多指數基金、被動基金都按照 Glass Lewis 和 ISS 的建議進行投票。現在,他們過去提出了許多糟糕的建議,如果採納這些建議,將對公司的未來造成極大的破壞。

  • But if you got passive funds that essentially defer responsibility for the vote to Glass Lewis and ISS, then you can have extremely disastrous consequences for a publicly traded company if too much of the publicly traded company is controlled by index funds. It's de facto controlled by Glass Lewis and ISS.

    但如果你擁有被動基金,基本上將投票責任推給 Glass Lewis 和 ISS,那麼如果上市公司的太多部分由指數基金控制,那麼你可能會對上市公司造成極其災難性的後果。它實際上由 Glass Lewis 和國際太空站控制。

  • This is a fundamental problem for corporate governance because they're not voting along the lines that are actually good for shareholders. That's the big issue. I mean, that's where it comes down to, ISS, Glass Lewis corporate terrorism.

    這是公司治理的根本問題,因為他們的投票方式其實不利於股東。這才是大問題。我的意思是,這就是國際太空站、格拉斯劉易斯公司恐怖主義的問題。

  • Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

    Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. And I would say the special committee did an amazing job in constructing this plan for the benefit of the shareholders. There is no -- nothing which gets passed on until the time shareholders make substantial returns. So that's why, in the end, I would say I would urge you to not only vote on the plan, but also what on all the three directors because of their exceptional knowledge and experience, and literally, we at Tesla work with these directors day in, day out.

    是的。我想說,特別委員會在製定這項有利於股東的計畫方面做得非常出色。在股東獲得豐厚回報之前,不會發生任何轉移。所以,最後,我想說,我敦促你們不僅對該計劃進行投票,而且還對所有三位董事進行投票,因為他們擁有卓越的知識和經驗,而且實際上,我們特斯拉每天都與這些董事一起工作。

  • I mean, there is not even a single day that one of the directors I haven't spoken to or one of my colleague hasn't spoken to and even the directors out here are not just reading out of PowerPoint presentations. They are actually working with us day in, day out.

    我的意思是,我每天都會和某位董事或我的同事交談,甚至這裡的董事們也不只是照本宣科地讀 PowerPoint 簡報。他們實際上每天都在與我們一起工作。

  • So again, I just urge you, guys, our shareholders, to work along the Board's recommendation. Thank you, guys.

    因此,我再次敦促各位股東依照董事會的建議行事。謝謝你們。

  • Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

    Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations

  • Great. Thank you, Vaibhav. We appreciate everyone's questions today and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much, and goodbye.

    偉大的。謝謝你,Vaibhav。我們感謝大家今天提出的問題,並期待下個季度與您交談。非常感謝,再見。