特斯拉 (TSLA) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's fourth quarter 2024 Q&A webcast.

大家下午好，歡迎收聽特斯拉 2024 年第四季問答網路直播。

My name is Travis Axelrod, the Head of Investor Relations here at Tesla.

我叫崔維斯阿克塞爾羅德 (Travis Axelrod)，是特斯拉投資人關係主管。

And I'm joined today by Elon Musk and Vaibhav Taneja and a number of other executives.

今天與我一起出席的還有 Elon Musk、瓦伊巴夫·塔內賈 (Vaibhav Taneja) 和其他一些高管。

Our Q4 results were announced at about 3:00 PM Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

我們的第四季度業績於美國中部時間下午 3:00 左右在與本次網路廣播相同的連結中發布的更新文件中公佈。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。

These comments are based on predictions and expectations as of today.

這些評論是基於今天的預測和預期。

Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

由於多種風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的因素，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

(Event Instructions) Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.

(活動說明) 在我們進入問答環節之前，伊隆先講了一些開場白。

Elon?

埃隆？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So in summary, in Q4, we set record and delivered vehicles at an annualized rate of nearly 2 million a year.

總而言之，在第四季度，我們創下了紀錄，以每年近 200 萬輛的速度交付汽車。

So congratulations to the Tesla team on excellent work, achieving record production and deliveries.

恭喜特斯拉團隊的出色工作，實現了創紀錄的產量和交付量。

Model Y was the best-selling vehicle of any kind for 2024.

Model Y 是 2024 年最暢銷的車款。

That's worth noting.

這是值得注意的。

Not just the best electric vehicle, the best vehicle of any kind on Earth, number one was Model Y.

它不僅是最好的電動車，也是地球上最好的車，排名第一的是 Model Y。

We are staying focused on maximizing volumes and obviously doubling down -- I don't know what -- really, I was going to say doubling down in autonomy, but really, it's like autonomy is like 10x-ing frankly.

我們將繼續專注於最大化產量，而且顯然要加倍努力——我不知道是什麼——實際上，我本來想說加倍努力實現自主性，但實際上，坦率地說，自主性就像是增加了10 倍。

Doubling is not even enough.

加倍也不夠。

We made many critical investments in 2024 in manufacturing, AI and robotics that will bear immense fruit in the future, immense.

2024 年，我們在製造業、人工智慧和機器人技術方面進行了許多關鍵投資，這些投資將在未來結出巨大的成果。

Like it's, in fact, to such a scale that it is difficult to comprehend.

事實上，它的規模如此之大，以致於難以理解。

And I've said this before, and I'll stand by it.

我以前就說過這個，而且我會堅持這個說法。

I see a path.

我看到了一條路。

I'm not saying it's an easy path, but I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far.

我並不是說這是一條容易的路，但我認為特斯拉將成為迄今為止世界上最有價值的公司。

Not even close, like maybe several times more than -- I mean, there is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined.

甚至還沒有接近，可能要多出幾倍——我的意思是，特斯拉的市值可能會超過接下來五家公司的總和。

There's a path to that.

有一條路可以到達那裡。

I mean, I think it's like and incredibly it's like a difficult path, but it is an achievable path.

我的意思是，我認為這是一條令人難以置信的艱難道路，但這是一條可以實現的道路。

And that is overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots.

這主要歸功於自動駕駛汽車和自主人形機器人。

So our focus is actually building towards that.

因此我們的重點其實是朝著這個方向發展。

And then that's where we're laying the ground.

這就是我們要奠定基礎的地方。

We laid the groundwork for that in 2024.

我們在 2024 年為此奠定了基礎。

We'll continue to lay the groundwork for that in 2025.

2025年，我們將繼續為此奠定基礎。

In fact, more than laying the groundwork, actually be building the structure.

事實上，不僅要打好基礎，還要建構結構。

We're building the manufacturing lines.

我們正在建設生產線。

And I'd like -- setting up for what I think will be an epic 2026 and a ridiculous '27 and '28, ridiculously good.

我想——為我認為將是史詩般的 2026 年和荒謬的 2027 年和 2028 年做好準備，荒謬地好。

That is my prediction.

這是我的預測。

As you have -- very few people understand the value of full self-driving and our ability to monetize the fleet.

正如您所說，很少有人了解全自動駕駛的價值以及我們將車隊貨幣化的能力。

Some of these things I've said for quite a long time, and I don't know -- people have said, well, Elon is the boy who cried wolf like several times.

有些事情我已經說了很久了，我不知道──人們已經說過，好吧，艾隆就是那個喊狼來了的男孩，好幾次了。

But I'm telling you, there's a damn wolf at this time, and you can drive it.

但我告訴你，這時候有隻該死的狼，你可以驅趕它。

In fact, it could drive you.

事實上，它能夠驅動你。

It's a self-driving wolf.

這是一隻自動駕駛的狼。

For a lot of people, like their experience of Tesla Autonomy is like if it's even a year old, if it's even 2 years old, it's like meeting someone when they're like a toddler and thinking that they're going to be a toddler forever.

對許多人來說，他們對特斯拉自動駕駛汽車的體驗就像是它只有一歲或兩歲一樣，就像是在他們還是個蹣跚學步的孩子時遇到一個孩子，並認為他們也會成為蹣跚學步的孩子永遠。

But obviously, not going to be a toddler forever, they grow up.

但顯然，他們不會永遠只是個小孩，他們會長大。

But if their last experience was like, oh, FSD was a toddler.

但如果他們最後的經驗是這樣的，哦，FSD 還是個蹣跚學步的孩子。

It's like, well, it's grown up now.

就好像它現在已經長大了。

Have you seen it?

你看過了嗎？

It's like walks and talks.

就像散步和談話一樣。

And that's really what we've got.

這確實就是我們所得到的。

And it's difficult to -- for people to understand this because human intuition is linear as opposed to what we're seeing is exponential progress.

人們很難理解這一點，因為人類的直覺是線性的，而我們所看到的則是指數級的進步。

So that's why my #1 recommendation for anyone who doubts is simply try it.

所以這就是為什麼我對於有疑問的人的首要建議就是嘗試。

Have you tried it?

你試過了嗎？

When's the last time you tried it?

你上次嘗試是什麼時候？

And the only people who are skeptical, the only people who are skeptical are those who have not tried it.

唯一持懷疑態度的人，唯一持懷疑態度的人是那些沒有嘗試過的人。

So a car goes -- a passenger car typically has only about 10 hours of utility per week out of 168, a very small percentage.

汽車的情況也是如此——一輛乘用車通常每週的使用時間只有 10 小時（總共 168 小時），佔比非常小。

Once that car is autonomous, my rough estimate is that it is in use for at least 1/3 of the hours per week, so call it, 50, maybe 55 hours of the week.

一旦汽車實現自動駕駛，我粗略估計它每週的使用時間至少為 1/3，也就是每週 50 小時，甚至 55 小時。

And it can be used for both cargo delivery and people delivery.

既可用於運貨，又可用於運人。

So even, let's say, but you can deliver packages in the middle of the night or resupply restaurants or whatever the case may be, whatever people need at all hours of the day or night.

也就是說，你可以在半夜送包裹或給餐廳補給，或者無論什麼情況，在白天或晚上的任何時候滿足人們的需要。

That same asset, the thing that -- these things that already exist with no incremental cost change, just a software update, now have 5x or more the utility than they currently have.

同樣的資產，那些已經存在的東西，沒有增加成本，只是進行了軟體更新，但現在的實用性是原來的 5 倍或更多。

I think this will be the largest asset value increase in human history.

我認為這將是人類史上最大的資產價值增值。

Maybe there's something bigger but I just don't know what it is.

也許還有更大的東西但我不知道它是什麼。

And so people who would look in the rearview mirror are looking for past precedent, except I don't think there is one.

因此，人們回顧過去式尋找先例，但我認為並不存在這樣的先例。

So look, the reality of autonomy is upon us.

所以，看，自治的現實已經降臨到我們頭上。

And I repeat my advice, try driving the car or let it drive you.

我再重複一遍我的建議，嘗試駕駛汽車或讓汽車駕駛你。

So now it works very well in the US, but of course, it will, over time, work just as well everywhere else.

因此，現在它在美國運行得很好，但當然，隨著時間的推移，它在其他地方也會同樣有效。

Yes, so we're working hard to grow our annual volumes.

是的，所以我們正在努力增加我們的年產量。

Our constraint is -- our current constraint is battery packs this year but we're working on addressing that constraint.

我們目前的限制是今年的電池組，但我們正在努力解決這個限制。

And I think we will make progress in addressing that constraint.

我認為我們將在解決這項限制上取得進展。

And then things are really going to go ballistic next year and really ballistic in '27 and '28.

明年情況將會變得非常嚴峻，27 年和 28 年的情況將更加嚴峻。

So yes, so a bit more on full self-driving.

是的，關於完全自動駕駛還有更多內容。

Our Q4 vehicle safety report shows continued year-over-year improvement in safety for vehicles.

我們的第四季車輛安全報告顯示，車輛安全性年減。

So the safety numbers, if somebody has -- supervises full self-driving turn on or not, the safety differences are gigantic.

因此，如果有人監督完全自動駕駛，無論是否開啟，安全數字上的差異都是巨大的。

And people have seen the immense improvement with Version 13, and with incremental versions in Version 13 and 14 is going to be yet another step beyond that, that is very significant.

人們已經看到了版本 13 的巨大改進，而版本 13 和 14 中的增量版本將會更進一步，這是非常重要的。

We launched the training cluster at Gigafactory Austin, which was a significant contributor to FSD advancement.

我們在奧斯汀超級工廠推出了訓練集群，這對 FSD 的發展做出了重大貢獻。

And we continue to invest in training infrastructure out of Texas headquarters.

我們將繼續投資德州總部的培訓基礎設施。

So the training needs for Optimus, our occupancy humanoid robot are probably at least ultimately 10x what is needed for the car, at least to get to the full range of useful role.

因此，對於我們的佔用人形機器人 Optimus 來說，其訓練需求可能至少是汽車所需訓練需求的 10 倍，至少要使其充分發揮有用的作用。

You can say like how many different roles are there for a humanoid robot versus a car?

您可以說一下人形機器人和汽車有多少種不同的角色嗎？

A humanoid robot has probably 1,000x more uses and more complex things than in a car.

人形機器人的用途可能比汽車多 1,000 倍，而且更複雜。

That doesn't mean the training scales by 1,000 but it's probably at 10x.

這並不意味著訓練規模會擴大 1,000 倍，但可能擴大 10 倍。

Now you can do this progressively, so it doesn't mean like Tesla's going to spend like $500 billion in training compute because we will obviously train Optimus to do enough tasks to match the output of robots.

現在你可以逐步地做到這一點，所以這並不意味著特斯拉要花費 5000 億美元進行訓練計算，因為我們顯然會訓練 Optimus 完成足夠的任務來匹配機器人的輸出。

And obviously, the cost of training is dropping dramatically with time.

顯然，隨著時間的推移，培訓成本正在急劇下降。

But it is -- it's one of those things where I think long-term, Optimus will be -- Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue, like it's really bananas.

但我認為，從長遠來看，Optimus 有潛力帶來超過 10 兆美元的收入，這真是太瘋狂了。

So that you can obviously a lot of training compute in that situation.

因此，在這種情況下你顯然可以進行大量的訓練計算。

In fact, even $500 billion training compute in that situation will be quite a good deal.

事實上，在這種情況下，即使 5000 億美元的訓練計算也是相當不錯的交易。

Yes, the future is going to be incredibly different from the past, that's for sure.

是的，未來將會與過去截然不同，這是肯定的。

We live at this unbelievable inflection point in human history.

我們生活在人類歷史上這個令人難以置信的轉捩點。

So yes, so the proof is in the pudding.

是的，事實勝於雄辯。

So we're going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June.

因此，我們將於六月在奧斯汀推出無人監督的全自動駕駛付費服務。

So I talked to the team.

因此我和團隊進行了交談。

We feel confident in being able to do an initial launch of unsupervised, no one in the car, full self-driving in Austin in June.

我們有信心在今年六月於奧斯汀首次推出無人監管、車內無人的全自動駕駛汽車。

We already have Tesla's operating autonomously unsupervised full self-driving at our factory in Fremont, and we'll soon be doing that at our factory in Texas.

特斯拉已經在弗里蒙特的工廠運行無人監督的全自動駕駛汽車，我們很快就會在德克薩斯州的工廠運行同樣的汽車。

So thousands of cars every day are driving with no one in them at our Fremont factory in California, that we'll soon be doing that in Austin and then elsewhere in the world, the rest of our factories, which is pretty cool.

在我們位於加州弗里蒙特的工廠裡，每天都有數千輛汽車在無人駕駛的情況下行駛，我們很快就會在奧斯汀以及世界其他地方的其餘工廠也實行這種做法，這非常酷。

And the cars aren't just driving to exactly the same spot because, obviously, it all -- at the same spot.

而且汽車不會駛往完全相同的地點，因為顯然所有地點都是相同的。

The cars are actually programmed with where -- with what lane they need to park into to be picked up for delivery.

實際上，這些汽車已經經過編程，確定它們需要停在哪條車道上以便被人接走並進行送貨。

So the drive from the factory end of line to their destination parking spot and to be picked up for delivery to customers and then doing this reliably every day, thousands of times a day.

因此，從工廠生產線末端開車到目的地停車位，再被提走交付給客戶，然後每天可靠地重複此過程數千次。

It's pretty cool.

這非常酷。

Like I said, these Tesla's will be in the wild with no one in them in June in Austin.

就像我說的，這些特斯拉六月將在奧斯汀被丟棄在野外，車內將空無一人。

So what I'm saying is this is not some far-off mythical situation.

所以我想說這並不是什麼遙遠的神話故事。

It's literally five, six months away, five months away kind of thing.

確實還有五、六個月甚至五個月的時間。

And while we're stepping -- putting our toe in the water gently at first just to make sure everything is cool, our solution, our sort of solution is a generalized AI solution.

當我們開始嘗試時，我們首先會輕輕地將腳趾放入水中，以確保一切正常，我們的解決方案是通用的人工智慧解決方案。

It does not require high precision maps of locality.

它不需要高精度的局部地圖。

So we just want to be cautious.

因此我們只是想謹慎一點。

It's not that it doesn't work beyond Austin.

這並不是說它在奧斯汀以外就不起作用了。

In fact, it does.

事實上，確實如此。

We just want to be -- put our toe in the water, make sure everything is okay, then put a few more toes in the water, then put a foot in the water with safety of the general public as and those in the car as our top priority.

我們只是想——先試水，確保一切正常，然後再試幾次，最後再試一次，確保公眾和車內人員的安全。

With regard to Optimus, obviously, I'm making these revenue predictions that sound absolutely insane, I realize that.

關於 Optimus，顯然，我做出的這些收入預測聽起來非常瘋狂，我意識到了這一點。

But they are -- I think they will prove to be accurate.

但我認為它們將被證明是準確的。

Now with Optimus, there's a lot of uncertainty on the exact timing because it's not like a train arriving at the station for Optimus.

現在，對於擎天柱來說，其確切的時間存在著很大的不確定性，因為它不像一列火車到達擎天柱的車站。

We are designing the train at the station and in real time while also building the tracks.

我們在車站即時設計火車，同時也建造軌道。

And sort of like, why didn't the train arrive exactly at 12:05?

有點像，為什麼火車沒有在 12:05 準時到達？

And like we're designing the train and the tracks in the station in real-time while like how can we this thing with absolute precision?

就像我們正在實時設計車站的火車和軌道一樣，我們如何絕對精確地做到這一點？

It's impossible.

這不可能。

The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year.

正常的內部計畫是今年生產約 10,000 台 Optimus 機器人。

Will we succeed in building 10,000 exactly by the end of December this year?

我們能在今年12月底準確建成10,000個嗎？

Probably not, but will we succeed in making several thousand?

可能不會，但是我們能成功製造幾千個嗎？

Yes, I think we will.

是的，我想我們會的。

Will those several thousand Optimus robots be doing useful things by the end of the year?

今年底，這幾千台擎天柱機器人能夠做出有用的事嗎？

Yes, I'm confident they will do useful things.

是的，我相信他們會做出有用的事。

Those Optimus use at the Tesla factories for production design 1 will inform how will we change for production design 2, which we expect to launch next year.

Optimus 在特斯拉工廠用於生產設計 1 時所使用的那些設計將引導我們如何改變預計於明年推出的生產設計 2。

And our goal is to run Optimus production faster than maybe anything has ever been ramped, meaning like aspirationally in order of magnitude, ramp per year.

我們的目標是以前所未有的速度運行 Optimus 的生產，也就是每年以數量級的速度成長。

Now if we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps, we only end up with a half order of magnitude per year.

現在，如果我們期望每年實現數量級的成長，那麼最終我們每年只能實現半個數量級的成長。

But that's the kind of growth that we're talking about.

但這就是我們談論的那種成長。

It doesn't take very many years before we're making 100 million of these things a year if you go up by let's say, a factor by 5x per year.

如果以每年 5 倍的倍數成長，用不了幾年我們就能每年生產 1 億個這樣的東西。

It's insane.

這太瘋狂了。

Insane.

瘋狂的。

Not 50%, 500%.

不是 50%，而是 500%。

Big growth numbers.

龐大的成長數字。

Yes.

是的。

But we do need to be -- this is an entirely new supply chain; it's entirely new technology.

但我們確實需要──這是一個全新的供應鏈；這是一項全新的技術。

There's nothing off the shelf to use.

沒有現成的東西可以使用。

We tried desperately with Optimus to use any existing motors or any actuators, sensors.

我們拼命嘗試讓 Optimus 使用任何現有的馬達、執行器和感測器。

Nothing worked for us at any price.

無論付出什麼代價，都對我們不起作用。

We had to design everything from principles to work for humanoid robot and with the most sophisticated hand that has ever been made before by far.

我們必須設計人形機器人的一切，從原理到工作原理，並製造出迄今為止最複雜的手。

Optimus will be also able to play the piano and be able to thread a needle.

擎天柱還能彈鋼琴和穿針引線。

I mean, this is the level of precision no one has been able to achieve.

我的意思是，這是無人能夠達到的精度水準。

And so it's really something special, so yes.

所以這確實是一件特別的事情，是的。

And long-term stopes will be overwhelmingly the value of the company.

而長期的礦藏將占到公司價值的絕大部分。

Regarding energy, backed up back to us.

關於能源，又回到我們身上。

It was, Elon, you come back here for a minute.

是啊，埃隆，你回來一下。

Back to us, energy storage is a big deal and will become -- it's already super important, will become incredibly important in the future.

回到我們身邊，能源儲存是一件大事，而且會變得——它已經非常重要，將來會變得非常重要。

And it is something that enables far greater energy output to the grid than is currently possible because the grids are -- the vast majority of the grid has no energy storage capability.

它可以使電網的能源輸出遠超過目前的能力，因為絕大多數電網沒有能源儲存能力。

So they have to design the power plants to -- for very high peaks and assuming that there's no energy storage.

所以他們必須設計發電廠來應對非常高的峰值，並且假設沒有能量儲存。

Once you have grid energy storage and home-based energy storage, the actual total energy output per year of the grid is dramatically greater than people think.

一旦有了電網儲能和家庭儲能，電網每年的實際總能量輸出將遠遠超出人們的想像。

Maybe it's at least double.

或許至少是兩倍。

This will drive the demand of stationary battery packs and especially the grid-scale ones to and saying basically as much demand as we can possibly make.

這將推動固定電池組，特別是電網規模電池組的需求，基本上達到我們所能滿足的最大需求。

So we have our second factory, which is in Shanghai, that's starting operation, and we're building a third factory.

我們的第二家工廠位於上海，現已開始運營，而且我們正在建造第三家工廠。

So we're trying to ramp output of the stationary battery storage as quickly as possible.

因此，我們正在盡快提高固定電池儲存的產量。

Now there is a challenge here where we have to be careful to -- that were not robbing from one bucket to take to another bucket because for a given gigawatt hours per year of the cell output, does it go into stationary applications or mobile applications?

現在面臨的一個挑戰是，我們必須小心——不要從一個桶子裡拿到另一個桶子裡，因為對於給定的每年千兆瓦時的電池產量，它是用於固定應用還是行動應用？

It can't go both into both, so we have to make that trade-off, yes.

它不可能同時實現兩者，所以我們必須做出權衡，是的。

But overall, the demand for total gigawatt hours of batteries, whether mobile or stationary, that will grow in a very, very big way over time.

但總體而言，無論是行動電池還是固定電池，對總千兆瓦時的需求都會隨著時間的推移而大幅增長。

So in conclusion, 2025 really is a pivotal year for Tesla.

所以總而言之，2025 年對特斯拉來說確實是關鍵的一年。

And when we look back on 2025 and the launch of unsupervised full self-driving, true real-world AI that actually works, I think we may regard it as the biggest year in Tesla history, maybe even bigger than Atlas car, or the Model S or the Model 3 or Model Y.

當我們回顧2025 年，以及無人監督的全自動駕駛、真正有效的現實世界人工智慧的推出時，我認為我們可以將其視為特斯拉歷史上最重要的一年，甚至可能比Atlas 汽車或Model 3 更偉大。

In fact, I think it probably will be viewed '25 as maybe the most important year in Tesla's history.

事實上，我認為 25 年可能會被視為特斯拉史上最重要的一年。

There is no company in the world that is as good in real-world AI as Tesla.

世界上沒有任何一家公司在現實世界的人工智慧方面能像特斯拉一樣出色。

I don't even know who's in second place.

我甚至不知道第二名是誰。

Like you say, like, who's in the second place for real-world AI?

就像你說的，在現實世界的人工智慧領域，誰能排在第二名？

I would need a very big telescope to see them.

我需要一架非常大的望遠鏡才能看到它們。

That's how far behind they are.

他們落後了這麼多。

All right.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much, Elon.

非常感謝，埃隆。

And Vaibhav has some opening remarks as well.

Vaibhav 也發表了一些開場白。

Yes, I'll talk about things on Earth.

是的，我會講地球上的事情。

As Elon mentioned, in Q4, we set records of vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployments in an uncertain macro environment.

正如伊隆所提到的，在第四季度，我們在不確定的宏觀環境下創下了汽車交付和儲能部署的記錄。

We were able to grow auto and energy storage volumes, both sequentially and on a year-on-year basis.

我們能夠實現汽車和能源儲存容量的連續和同比增長。

For this, I would like to thank the efforts of everyone at Tesla to make this a reality, and our customers who helped us achieve this.

為此，我要感謝特斯拉所有人為實現這一目標所做的努力，以及幫助我們實現這一目標的客戶。

Coming into the fourth quarter, our focus was to reduce inventory levels in the automotive business, and we accomplished that by ending the quarter with the lowest finished good inventory in the last two years.

進入第四季度，我們的重點是降低汽車業務的庫存水平，並且我們在本季度末實現了兩年來最低的成品庫存水平。

This was a result of offering not only attractive financing options but also other discounts and programs, which impacted ASPs.

這是因為不僅提供了有吸引力的融資選擇，還提供其他折扣和計劃，從而影響了 ASP。

While we saw volume growth in almost all regions that we operate in, we hit a new record for deliveries in the Greater China market.

儘管我們經營的幾乎所有地區的銷售都實現了成長，但我們在大中華區市場的交付量創下了新紀錄。

This is an encouraging trend since we grew volume in a highly competitive BEV market.

這是一個令人鼓舞的趨勢，因為我們在競爭激烈的 BEV 市場中實現了銷售成長。

On the automotive margin front, we saw a quarter-over-quarter decline primarily due to lower ASPs than due to the recognition of FSD-related revenue in Q3 from feature releases.

在汽車利潤率方面，我們看到季度環比下降，主要是由於平均售價較低，而非第三季因功能發布而確認的 FSD 相關收入。

Our journey on cost reduction continues, and we were able to get our overall cost per car down below $35,000, driven primarily from costs.

我們繼續努力降低成本，目前我們已能夠將每輛車的總成本降至 35,000 美元以下，這主要得益於成本。

This was despite increased depreciation and other costs as we prepare for the transition to the new Model Y, for which we recently started taking orders in all markets.

儘管我們為過渡到新 Model Y 做準備，導致折舊和其他成本增加，但我們最近已開始在所有市場接受訂單。

All our factories will start producing the new Model Y next month.

我們所有的工廠將於下個月開始生產新款 Model Y。

While we feel confident in our team's abilities to ramp production know that it is an unprecedented change, and we are not aware of anybody else taking the best-selling car on the planet and updating all factories at the same time.

雖然我們對團隊提高產量的能力充滿信心，但要知道這是一個前所未有的變化，我們不知道還有其他人會把地球上最暢銷的汽車同時更新所有工廠。

This changeover will result in several weeks of lost production in the quarter.

此次轉換將導致本季數週的生產損失。

As a result, margins will be impacted due to idle capacity and other ramp-related costs, as is common in any launch but will be overcome as production is ramped.

因此，利潤率將因閒置產能和其他與產能提升相關的成本而受到影響，這在任何產品發布中都是常見的問題，但隨著產量的提升，這一問題將得到克服。

We will be introducing several new products throughout 2025.

我們將在 2025 年推出多款新產品。

We are still on track to launch a more affordable model in the first half of 2025 and will continue to expand our lineup from there.

我們仍計劃在 2025 年上半年推出更實惠的型號，並將繼續擴大我們的產品線。

From a dollar-for-dollar basis, we believe we have the most dramatic lineup today compared to the industry, and it will continue to get better from here.

從實際來看，我們相信，與業界相比，我們目前擁有最戲劇性的陣容，而且今後還會繼續變得更好。

As always, all our products come with the best software in the industry, autonomy features and capable of full autonomy in the future.

像往常一樣，我們的所有產品都配備了業內最好的軟體、自主功能，並能夠在未來實現完全自主。

And despite the premium experience, the total cost of ownership is close to market, less premium competitors.

儘管體驗很高端，但整體擁有成本卻接近市場水平，低於高端競爭對手。

Energy storage deployments reached an all-time high in Q4, and this resulted in -- but declined sequentially.

能源儲存部署在第四季度達到了歷史最高水平，這導致了——但環比下降。

This was a result of higher -- sorry, growth came from Megapack and Power.

這是由於更高的——抱歉，成長來自於 Megapack 和 Power。

Both businesses continue to be supply constrained, and like mentioned, we're trying to ramp up production with mega-factory Shanghai coming online this quarter onwards.

兩項業務的供應仍然受限，正如前面提到的，我們正試圖透過本季開始投入營運的上海大型工廠來提高產量。

While quarterly deployments will likely continue to fluctuate sequentially, we expect at least 50% growth in deployments year-over-year in 2025.

雖然季度部署量可能仍會持續呈連續波動，但我們預計 2025 年部署量將年增至少 50%。

Gross profit and margins in the service and other business was up year-over-year but declined sequentially.

服務和其他業務的毛利和利潤率同比增長，但環比下降。

This was the result of higher service center costs and lower profit from used car business.

這是由於服務中心成本上升和二手車業務利潤下降所造成的。

The businesses within service and other primarily support our new car business, especially through the impact on total cost of ownership.

服務和其他業務主要支持我們的新車業務，尤其是透過對總擁有成本的影響。

Therefore, while we manage them to be positive on a GAAP basis, we do not expect similar margins as the rest of the business.

因此，雖然我們在 GAAP 基礎上管理利潤為正，但我們預期利潤率不會與其他業務相似。

There's a lot of uncertainty around tariffs.

關稅方面存在著許多不確定性。

Over the years, we've tried to localize our supply chain in every market, but we are still very reliant on parts from across the world for all our businesses.

多年來，我們一直嘗試在每個市場實現我們的供應鏈本地化，但我們的所有業務仍然非常依賴來自世界各地的零件。

Therefore, the imposition of tariffs, which is very likely, and any of the will have an impact on our business and profitability.

因此，徵收關稅是非常有可能的，任何一項關稅都會對我們的業務和獲利能力產生影響。

Our operating expenses grew both year-over-year and sequentially.

我們的營運費用年比和季比均有所成長。

The biggest driver of the increase was R&D as we continue to invest in AI-related initiatives.

由於我們持續對人工智慧相關計畫進行投資，研發成為成長的最大驅動力。

The remaining increase came from growth in our sales capabilities and marketing efforts from referral program.

剩餘的成長來自於我們的銷售能力的成長和推薦計畫的行銷力度。

For 2025, we expect operating expenses to increase to support our growth initiatives.

到 2025 年，我們預計營運費用將增加，以支持我們的成長計畫。

It is important to point out that the net income in Q4 was impacted by a $600 million mark-to-market benefit from Bitcoin due to the adoption of a new accounting standard for digital assets, whereby we will change -- we will take mark-to-market adjustments through other income every reporting period going forward.

需要指出的是，第四季度的淨收入受到了比特幣 6 億美元市值收益的影響，這是由於採用了新的數位資產會計準則，我們將改變——我們將採用市值計價——今後每個報告期間都透過其他收入進行市場調整。

Our free cash flow for the quarter was $2 billion, and despite CapEx increase of over $2.4 billion in 2024, we were able to generate free cash flow of $3.6 billion for the year.

我們本季的自由現金流為 20 億美元，儘管 2024 年的資本支出增加了 24 億美元以上，但我們全年仍能產生 36 億美元的自由現金流。

CapEx efficiency is something we are extremely focused on.

我們非常關注資本支出效率。

While we have invested in AI-related initiatives, we have done so in a very targeted manner to utilize the spend to get immediate benefits.

雖然我們已經對人工智慧相關項目進行了投資，但我們以非常有針對性的方式進行了投資，以利用支出來獲得直接的收益。

The build-out of Cortex was accelerated because of the role -- actually to accelerate the rollout of FSD Version 13.

由於其作用，Cortex 的構建得到了加速——實際上是為了加速 FSD 版本 13 的推出。

Accumulated AI-related CapEx, including infrastructure, so far has been approximately $5 billion.

到目前為止，包括基礎設施在內的人工智慧相關資本支出累計約 50 億美元。

And for 2025, we expect our CapEx to be flat on a year-over-year basis.

到 2025 年，我們預計資本支出將與去年同期持平。

In conclusion, like Elon said, 2025 is going to be a pivotal year for Tesla.

總之，就像伊隆所說，2025 年將是特斯拉的關鍵一年。

There are a lot of investments which we have made and will continue to make in this coming year, which will set the pace for the next phase of growth.

我們已經進行了大量投資，並將在來年繼續進行投資，這將為下一階段的成長奠定基礎。

And it is something which now I'm getting out on the floor, it is going to be out of this world.

現在我將這件事帶到了台上，這將是令人難以置信的。

And we just are putting the -- and that's all I have.

我們只是在做——這就是我要說的全部。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much, Vaibhav.

非常感謝，Vaibhav。

Then we will move over to investor questions and we'll start with say.com.

然後我們將轉到投資者問題，我們將從 say.com 開始。

The first question is, is unsupervised FSD still planned to be released in Texas and California this year?

第一個問題是，今年德州和加州是否還計劃推出無人監管的FSD？

What hurdles still exist to make that happen?

要實現這目標還存在哪些障礙？

You addressed the Texas piece, I think, already, so

我認為你已經提到了德克薩斯州的問題，所以

--

--

Yes, I'm confident that we'll release unsupervised FSD California this year as well.

是的，我相信我們今年也將在加州推出無人監督的 FSD。

Yes, in fact, I think we will most likely release unsupervised FSD in many regions of the country of the US by the end of this year.

是的，事實上，我認為我們很可能會在今年年底在美國許多地區推出無人監督的 FSD。

Like I say, we're just putting our toe in the water, then a few toes, then a food, then leg, then make sure everything is cool.

就像我說的，我們只是把腳趾放進水里，然後幾個腳趾，然後是食物，然後是腿，然後確保一切都很酷。

And we're looking for a safety level that is significantly above the average human driver.

我們追求的安全水準遠高於一般人類駕駛。

So it's not anywhere like much safer, not like a little bit safer than he was safe in here.

所以，那裡並不比他在那裡安全多少，也不比他在那裡安全一點。

So the standard has to be very high because at the moment, if there's any kind of accident with an autonomous car, that immediately gets worldwide headlines, even though about 40,000 people die every year in car accidents in the US, and most don't even get mentioned anywhere.

因此，標準必須非常高，因為目前，如果自動駕駛汽車發生任何類型的事故，都會立即成為全球頭條新聞，儘管美國每年約有 4 萬人死於車禍，而且大多數人沒有甚至在任何地方被提及。

But if somebody within autonomous car, it's headline news.

但如果有人擁有自動駕駛汽車，這就會成為頭條新聞。

We won't reward that.

我們不會獎勵這種行為。

Yes.

是的。

So it's really from a -- the only thing holding us back is an excess of caution.

因此，事實上──唯一阻礙我們前進的就是過度謹慎。

But people can certainly get a feel for how well the car would perform as unsupervised FSD by simply having a car -- allowing the car to drive you around your city and see how many times did you have to intervene, not where you wanted to intervene or were little concerned.

但人們當然可以透過一輛車來感受汽車在無人監督 FSD 中的表現——讓汽車載著你在城市裡轉悠，看看你需要乾預多少次，而不是你想幹預的地方或不太關心。

But how many times did you have to be intervened for definite safety reasons?

但是，出於明確的安全原因，您需要介入多少次？

And you will find that, that is very rare and over time, almost never.

你會發現，這種情況非常罕見，而且隨著時間的推移，幾乎不會再發生。

Great.

偉大的。

The next question is, are there any discussions with other auto companies about licensing FSD?

下一個問題是，是否與其他汽車公司討論過 FSD 授權問題？

Yes.

是的。

What we're seeing is at this point, significant interest from a number of major car companies about licensing Tesla full self-driving technology.

目前我們看到的是，許多大型汽車公司對授權特斯拉全自動駕駛技術表現出濃厚的興趣。

What we've generally said is the best way to know what to do is take one of our cars apart.

我們一般說，想知道該怎麼做的最好方法就是拆開我們的一輛車。

And then you can see where the placement of the cameras are, what the thermal needs are of the Tesla AI inference computer.

然後你就可以看到相機的位置，以及特斯拉 AI 推理計算機的散熱需求。

That's better than us selling CAD drawings.

這比我們銷售 CAD 圖紙要好。

And then we're only going to entertain situations where the volume would be very -- otherwise, it's not worth the complexity.

然後，我們只會考慮數量非常大的情況——否則，它的複雜性就不值得。

And we will not burden our engineering team with laborious discussions with other engineering teams until we obviously have unsupervised full self-driving working throughout the United States.

在我們顯然能夠在全美範圍內實現無人監督的全自動駕駛之前，我們不會讓我們的工程團隊與其他工程團隊進行費力的討論。

I think the interest level from other manufacturers to license FSD will be extremely high once it is obvious that unless you have FSD, you're dead.

我認為，一旦人們意識到如果沒有 FSD 你就死定了，其他製造商對 FSD 許可的興趣將會非常高。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is, is Optimus now mostly design-locked for 2025 production?

下一個問題是，Optimus 現在的設計是否基本上鎖定在 2025 年生產？

Optimus is not design-locked.

Optimus 並未受到設計鎖定。

So let's say like we're designing the train as it's going to -- we're redesigning the train as it's going down the tracks while redesigning the tracks and the train stations.

假設我們正在設計火車，我們正在重新設計沿著軌道行駛的火車，同時重新設計軌道和火車站。

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Yes, it's rapidly evolving.

是的，它正在快速發展。

It's rapidly evolving in a good direction.

它正在朝著好的方向快速發展。

It's pretty d*** amazing actually.

事實上，這真是太神奇了。

The team is doing a fantastic job.

該團隊表現出色。

We really have, I think, by far the best team of humanoid robotics engineers in the world.

我認為，我們確實擁有迄今為止世界上最好的人形機器人工程師團隊。

And we also have all the other ingredients necessary because you need a great battery pack, you need great power electronics, you need great charging capability.

我們也擁有所有其他必要的要素，因為你需要一個強大的電池組，你需要強大的電力電子設備，你需要強大的充電能力。

You need a great communications, a WiFi and cellular connectivity.

您需要良好的通訊、WiFi 和蜂窩連線。

And of course, you need real-world AI and then the ability to scale that production to huge levels, so you have to design for manufacturing.

當然，你需要現實世界的人工智慧，然後需要將生產規模擴大到巨大水平的能力，因此你必須為製造而進行設計。

The things that -- I mean, really what other companies are missing is they're missing the real-world AI and they're missing the ability to scale manufacturing to millions of units a year.

我的意思是，其他公司真正缺少的是現實世界的人工智慧，以及他們缺乏將生產規模擴大到每年數百萬台的能力。

I think that is an underappreciated thing that industrialization of design is a whole different thing than making a design.

我認為人們沒有充分認識到設計的工業化與設計製作是完全不同的。

Yes, prototypes are trivial basically.

是的，原型基本上很簡單。

Prototypes are easy production is there for many years.

原型很容易生產，而且已經存在很多年了。

The problem is there's like those who have never been involved in production or manufacturing somehow think that may -- once you come up with some eureka design, that you magically can make 1 million units a year, and this is totally false.

問題在於，那些從未參與過生產或製造的人會認為，一旦你有了一些靈光乍現的設計，你就能神奇地每年生產出 100 萬台，但這完全是錯誤的。

There needs to be some -- there's some Hollywood story or where they show actually the problem is manufacturing.

需要有一些——一些好萊塢故事，或者他們表明問題實際上在於製造業。

I've never even heard of one.

我從來沒有聽過。

It just doesn't fit the narrative.

這不符合故事情節。

The Hollywood thing is like some lone inventor in a garage goes eureka.

好萊塢的事情就像車庫裡某個孤獨的發明家突然靈光一現。

And suddenly, it files a patent, and suddenly, there's millions of units.

突然間，它申請了專利，然後突然就有了數百萬台。

And like I'm listening to the guys, we're missing really 99% of the story. 1% is -- a product is 1% inspiration, 99% perspiration.

當我聽這些傢伙說話時，我們實際上錯過了 99% 的故事。 1% 是－一件產品是 1% 的靈感加上 99% 的汗水。

Hollywood shows you the 1% inspiration and minus -- but forgets about the 99% perspiration of actually figuring out how to make that initial prototype manufacturable and then manufacture at high volume such as reliable, low cost, consistent, doesn't break down all the time and that is 100x modern at least than the prototype.

好萊塢向你展示了 1% 的靈感和缺點——但卻忘記了 99% 的努力，即如何讓最初的原型可製造，然後進行大批量生產，例如可靠、低成本、一致、不會發生故障時間至少比原型現代100 倍。

And then you have to get it delivered.

然後你必須把它送到。

Yes, and you have all these regulations and especially regulators around the world, it's very difficult.

是的，而且有這麼多的規定，特別是世界各地的監管機構，這非常困難。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

The next question is also Optimus-related.

下一個問題也與擎天柱有關。

When will Tesla start selling Optimus and what will be the price be?

特斯拉什麼時候開始銷售 Optimus，售價是多少？

Well, the -- it may -- for this year, we expect to just close a little bit with Optimus being used internally at Tesla because we obviously can easily use several thousand humanoid robots at Tesla for, I think, the most boring, annoying tasks in the factory, like the tasks nobody wants to do, where we have to beg people to do this task.

好吧，今年我們預計 Optimus 將在特斯拉內部使用，因為我們顯然可以在特斯拉輕鬆使用數千個類人機器人，我認為，這是最無聊、最煩人的工廠裡的任務，例如沒人願意做的任務，我們必須懇求別人去做。

And then they -- it's like they're totally happy to do the boring dangerous repetitive testing no humans want to do.

然後他們——就好像他們非常樂意做人類不願意做的無聊、危險的重複測試。

And that's also actually some of the easiest use cases for us to have Optimus do things like load the hopper, like body line, if you like, transporting pieces of sheet metal to the -- which is robot, the robot welding line for the body and you just have to nonstop take things out of a -- from one fixture to another fixture.

這實際上也是我們讓 Optimus 執行一些最簡單的用例，例如裝載料斗，例如車身生產線，將金屬片運送到機器人，即車身的機器人焊接生產線你只需要不停地將東西從一個裝置取出到另一個裝置。

And it's a very boring job.

這是一份非常無聊的工作。

That's the kind of thing that Optimus could do.

這就是擎天柱能夠做到的事。

The guy who runs around all the wall studs and the pins.

那個在所有牆上的螺栓和釘子周圍跑來跑去的傢伙。

Yes.

是的。

There's a ton of boring jobs, hideous jobs, slightly dangerous jobs that Optimus.

擎天柱要做很多無聊的工作、可怕的工作、有點危險的工作。

So we expect to use Optimus for those tasks at our factories, and that will help us close loop for improvement this year.

因此，我們希望在工廠中使用 Optimus 來完成這些任務，這將有助於我們在今年完成改進閉環。

It really was the production version 2 which I think launches sometime next year.

它確實是生產版本 2，我認為將於明年某個時候推出。

I'd like it to be the beginning of next year but maybe it's more like the middle of next year.

我希望是明年年初，但也可能是明年年中。

And then we have to -- with a production line that is designed for -- on the order of 10,000 units a month versus 1,000 units a month.

然後我們必須 — — 採用一條每月產量為 10,000 台而不是 1,000 台的生產線。

So when you're designing a production line for 1,000 units a month, it takes you a while to actually reach anywhere close to 1,000 units a month.

因此，當您設計一條月產量為 1,000 台的生產線時，實際上需要一段時間才能達到接近月產量 1,000 台的目標。

For any given production output, it takes a while to actually reach its potential.

對於任何給定的生產產出，實際上需要一段時間才能達到其潛力。

The current line that we're designing is for roughly 1,000 units a month of Optimus robots.

我們目前正在設計的 Optimus 機器人生產線每月產量約 1,000 台。

The next line would be for 10,000 units a month.

下一條生產線的月產量將為10,000台。

The line after that would be for 100,000 units a month.

此後的生產線每月產量將達到10萬台。

And I think probably with version 2, it is a very rough guess because there's so much uncertainty here, very rough guess that we start delivering Optimus robots to companies that are outside of Tesla in maybe the second half of next year, something like that.

我認為可能對於版本2 來說，這是一個非常粗略的猜測，因為這裡存在太多的不確定性，粗略的猜測是我們可能會在明年下半年開始向特斯拉以外的公司交付Optimus 機器人，諸如此類。

But like I said, this is such an exponential ramp that it will go from no one's receiving humanoid robots to these things like coming out like crazy.

但就像我說的，這是一個指數級的成長，從沒有人接收人形機器人到這些東西瘋狂出現。

We can't build enough.

我們無法建造足夠的建築。

We're always going to be in a we can't enough situation.

我們總是會處於一種無法滿足的境地。

Demand will not be a problem even at a high price.

即使價格很高，需求也不會成為問題。

And then I said like, once we start -- once we're at a steady state of above 1 million units a year, I think the production -- I'm confident at 1 million units a year, that the production cost of Optimus will be less than $20,000.

然後我說，一旦我們開始——一旦我們達到每年 100 萬台以上的穩定狀態，我認為產量——我相信每年 100 萬台，擎天柱的生產成本將少於20,000美元。

If you compare the complexity of Optimus to the complexity of a car, so just the total mass and complexity of Optimus is much less than a car.

如果將擎天柱的複雜性與汽車的複雜性進行比較，那麼擎天柱的總質量和複雜性就比汽車小得多。

So I would expect that at similar volumes to say the Model Y, which is over 1 million units a year, that you'd see Optimus be, I don't know, half the cost or something like that.

因此，我預計，在與 Model Y 類似的產量（每年超過 100 萬輛）下，Optimus 的成本將是它的一半左右。

What the price of Optimus is a different matter.

Optimus 的價格是多少則是另一回事。

The price of Optimus will be set by the market demand.

Optimus的售價將根據市場需求來決定。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question is, what is the status on mass production of the Tesla Semi?

下一個問題是，特斯拉 Semi 的量產進展如何？

And how will it impact revenue and scale?

它將如何影響收入和規模？

I can take that one.

我可以拿走那個。

So we just closed out the Semi factory roof of walls last week in Reno, a schedule, which is great with the weather.

因此，我們上週剛在裡諾完成了半工廠屋頂牆壁的施工，這個進度與天氣狀況非常好。

In Reno, you never know what's going to happen.

在裡諾，你永遠不知道會發生什麼事。

But we're prepping for mechanical installation of all the equipment in the coming months.

但我們正在為未來幾個月所有設備的機械安裝做準備。

The first builds of the high volumes in design come late this year in 2025 and begin ramping early in 2026.

首批大量設計產品將於 2025 年底投入生產，並於 2026 年初開始量產。

But as we've said before, the Semi is a TCO, no-brainer.

但正如我們之前所說的，Semi 是一種 TCO，這是毫無疑問的。

I think it's really similar to Optimus set by how much people and it has the total cost of ownership, it's much, much cheaper than any other transportation you could have.

我認為它與 Optimus 非常相似，根據人數和總擁有成本來看，它比任何其他交通工具都要便宜得多。

So at that point, when we're at scale, it will meaningfully contribute to Tesla's revenue.

因此，當我們擴大規模時，它將對特斯拉的收入做出有意義的貢獻。

Might be difficult to say how much. you want to add

可能很難說有多少。你想添加

No.

不。

I mean, I do think it tells Semi, again with autonomy, is going to be incredibly valuable.

我的意思是，我確實認為這再次表明 Semi 具有自主權，這將非常有價值。

That we actually have a shortage of truck drivers in America, that's one of the limiting factors on transport.

事實上，美國確實缺乏卡車司機，這是限制運輸的因素之一。

And people are human, so they get tired and sometimes there's -- I have a lot of respect for truck drivers because it's a tough job.

人都是人，所以都會累，有時候──我非常尊敬卡車司機，因為這是一項艱苦的工作。

But because it's a tough job, there's not that many people that want to do it.

但由於這是一份艱苦的工作，所以願意做這份工作的人並不多。

And there's actually fewer -- I believe, if my saying is correct, there are a few people entering truck driving as a profession than are not leaving it.

但實際上，我相信，如果我說的正確的話，從事卡車司機職業的人比離開這個職業的人少。

So when you think of yes, exactly.

所以當您想到“是”時，確實如此。

So when you consider, okay, there's more people leaving truck driving as a profession than entering it, well, we're going to have a real logistics problem as time goes by.

所以，當你考慮到放棄卡車司機職業的人比進入該職業的人還多時，那麼，隨著時間的推移，我們將面臨真正的物流問題。

So autonomy will be very important to meet that need.

因此，自主權對於滿足這項需求非常重要。

So like, yes, it will -- I don't know.

是的，確實會——但我不知道。

It's a several billion a year opportunity, which I don't know in this context.

這是一個每年數十億美元的商機，在這種情況下我並不知道。

Is that -- these days, does several billion a year matter?

那是不是說——如今，每年幾十億美元還有意義呢？

I think it does.

我認為是的。

It's not nothing.

這不是沒什麼。

It's probably -- it might displace a $10 billion a year thing.

它很有可能——可能會取代每年 100 億美元的事情。

That's $1 billion a month at some point probably.

某個時候這個數字很可能是每月 10 億美元。

But it's -- all this is going to pale in comparison to Optimus.

但——這一切跟擎天柱比起來，都黯然失色了。

So yes, $1 billion a month is a lot but it's not it's going to be like 1% of Optimus.

所以是的，每月 10 億美元是很多，但它不會相當於 Optimus 的 1%。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

We already covered the next question in opening remarks, so moving on.

我們在開場白中已經討論過下一個問題，所以繼續。

Is it expected that Tesla that will need to upgrade Hardware 3 vehicles?

預計特斯拉3系車將需要升級硬體嗎？

And if so, what is the timeline and expected impact to Tesla's CapEx?

如果是的話，時間表和對特斯拉資本支出的預期影響是什麼？

I think it referred to cost there.

我認為那裡指的是成本。

They're really asking the tough questions, aren't they?

他們確實在問一些棘手的問題，不是嗎？

I guess we haven't started working on Hardware 3 yet.

我想我們還沒開始研究硬體 3。

We are still making software releases.

我們仍在發佈軟體。

We released the 12.6 release recently, which was like a baby V13, but it's a significant improvement compared to what they had previously.

我們最近發布了 12.6 版本，它就像是小型版 V13，但與之前的版本相比有了顯著的改進。

And finding there still larger motors in the smaller models.

並發現較小型號中仍裝有較大的馬達。

So we don't give up on hardware we're still working on it.

所以我們不會放棄硬件，我們仍在努力。

Just the will trail the Hardware 4 releases.

僅會落後 Hardware 4 的發布。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I mean, I think the honest answer is that we're going to have to upgrade people's Hardware 3 computer for those that have bought full self-driving, and that is the most answer and that's going to be painful and difficult, but we'll get it done.

我的意思是，我認為誠實的答案是，對於那些購買了全自動駕駛汽車的人來說，我們將不得不升級他們的電腦硬件，這是最重要的答案，這將是痛苦和困難的，但我們我會完成它的。

Now I'm kind of glad that not that many people bought the FSD package.

現在我有點慶幸沒有那麼多人購買 FSD 套件。

Thanks, Elon.

謝謝，埃隆。

The next question.

下一個問題。

Has Tesla given up on ramping their solar roof product?

特斯拉是否已經放棄擴大其太陽能屋頂產品？

No, we -- Go ahead.

不，我們——繼續。

Yes, I can take it.

是的，我可以接受。

Yes, solar roof is a core part of the residential product portfolio, and it still remains.

是的，太陽能屋頂是住宅產品組合的核心部分，而且它仍然存在。

It draws a lot of customer interest despite it being premium products.

儘管它是高端產品，但仍然吸引了許多顧客的興趣。

We've worked on multiple iterations of engineering to make the product easier to install and distribute by reducing SKU count.

我們進行了多次工程迭代，透過減少 SKU 數量使產品更易於安裝和分發。

And more recently, rather than direct installation, we are focused on growth through our nationwide network of certified installers.

最近，我們不再直接安裝，而是專注於透過全國性的認證安裝商網路來實現成長。

And many of those, they've been installing solar for many years.

其中許多企業已經安裝太陽能很多年了。

That's actually turned out to be a much better way for the -- like it's just let the roof -- just supply products to the roofing industry.

事實證明，這是一種更好的方法——就像只是讓屋頂——只向屋頂行業供應產品一樣。

And especially when somebody's getting a new roof anyway or building a house from scratch, obviously, this is by far the most sufficient time to put in a solar roof as opposed to putting a solar roof on a house that -- where the roof still has 20 years of life.

尤其是當有人要換新屋頂或從頭開始建造房屋時，顯然，這是安裝太陽能屋頂最合適的時機，而不是在屋頂仍有破損的房子上安裝太陽能屋頂。

That's not economically senseful.

從經濟角度來說這毫無意義。

But if it's a new house or the roof needs to be replaced anyway, then solar roof can make a lot of sense.

但如果是新房子或屋頂需要更換，那麼太陽能屋頂就很有意義。

And it is a premium product.

而且它是一款優質產品。

It's like Model S, Model X or something, like it's a premium product.

它就像 Model S、Model X 或類似的車型，是一種高端產品。

I think it looks really cool.

我覺得它看起來真的很酷。

And you -- I mean, your house generates electricity.

而且你——我的意思是，你的房子能發電。

And if you combine it with the Tesla Powerwall battery, then you can be self-sufficient.

如果將它與 Tesla Powerwall 電池結合使用，那麼就可以實現自給自足。

So even if the grid turns off, even if the grid turns off for several days, your house still works, and your roof looks awesome.

所以即使電網關閉，即使電網關閉幾天，你的房子仍然可以使用，而且你的屋頂看起來很棒。

So it's like I recommend anyone who had -- who can afford it, get the Tesla Solar Roof and the Powerwall.

因此，我建議任何有能力的人購買特斯拉太陽能屋頂和 Powerwall。

Your life might depend on it.

您的生命可能就取決於它了。

And just in terms of convenience, your kids are not going to yell at you because their computers don't work because the power went out and you can't charge your phone.

就方便而言，您的孩子不會因為斷電導致他們的電腦無法工作或您無法為手機充電而對您大喊大叫。

Actually, it happens.

事實上，它確實發生了。

Yes, you literally can't even call anyone because your phones out of juice.

是的，你確實無法給任何人打電話，因為你的手機沒電了。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question was covered in opening remarks so we will skip that.

下一個問題在開場白中已經涉及，因此我們將跳過它。

And the last question from say.com. What technical breakthroughs will define V14 of FSD, given that V13 already covered to control?

最後一個問題來自 say.com。鑑於 V13 已經涵蓋控制，FSD 的 V14 將面臨哪些技術突破？

Well, we've got to help -- how about further than to upward?

好吧，我們必須幫忙——那再往上一點怎麼樣？

We've been in sort of the nothing but nets situation, nothing but nets from photons to controls for a while now for just improving the neural nets.

我們已經處於一個只有網路的境地，只有從光子到控制的網絡，只是為了改善神經網路。

I guess we could get into some of the technical details to some degree.

我想我們可以在某種程度上討論一些技術細節。

I have to say I continue to be amazed by just how effective order aggressive transformers are at solving a wide range of problems.

我必須說，我仍然對順序積極變換器在解決各種問題上的有效性感到驚訝。

I mean, Ashok, is there anything you'd like to add there without giving away the sort of family secrets?

我的意思是，阿肖克，在不洩露家庭秘密的情況下，您還有什麼想補充的嗎？

Things report on next already.

事情已經接下來報告了。

Continuing to scale the model size a lot.

繼續大幅擴大模型尺寸。

We scale a bunch in V13 but then there's still room to grow.

我們在 V13 中擴展了很多，但仍有成長空間。

So we're going to continue to scale the model size.

因此我們將繼續擴大模型尺寸。

We're going to increase the contact length even more.

我們將進一步增加接觸長度。

The memory sort of limited right now.

目前記憶體有點有限。

We've increased our own top memory (inaudible) even minutes of context for driving.

我們增加了自己的頂級記憶（聽不清楚），甚至還有幾分鐘的駕駛背景資訊。

They're going to add audio emergency better. add like data of the tricky correlates that we get from the entire fleet, any interventions or any kind of like user intervention.

他們將更好地添加音頻緊急情況。添加我們從整個車隊獲得的棘手相關數據、任何干預或任何類型的用戶幹預。

We just the data set.

我們只是數據集。

So scaling basically every aspect compute, at asset size, model size, model context and also the reinforcement learning objectives.

因此，基本上可以擴展每個面向的運算，包括資產規模、模型規模、模型環境以及強化學習目標。

All right.

好的。

With that, we will move over to analyst questions.

接下來，我們將討論分析師的問題。

(Event Instructions) And the first question will be coming from Daniel Roeska from Bernstein.

(活動說明) 第一題來自伯恩斯坦的丹尼爾‧羅斯卡 (Daniel Roeska)。

Daniel, please go ahead and unmute yourself.

丹尼爾，請繼續並取消靜音。

It's Daniel from Bernstein.

我是伯恩斯坦的丹尼爾。

Elon, Tesla's share price clearly already includes quite a few of the anticipated benefits you talked about today, yet realizing what you call kind of difficult but achievable will take some time.

伊隆，特斯拉的股價顯然已經包含了你今天談到的相當一部分預期收益，但實現你所說的有點困難但可以實現的目標還需要一些時間。

What are you pushing the Tesla executive team to do differently now to accelerate the innovation in order to realize the value you described for the company?

您現在正在推動特斯拉執行團隊採取哪些不同的措施來加速創新，從而實現您所描述的公司價值？

Well, I mean, we're, I think, working on perfecting real-world AI and making rapid progress week-over-week, if not month -- certainly month-over-month, it's often week-over-week.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為我們正在致力於完善現實世界的人工智慧，並且每週都在取得快速進展，如果不是每月的話——肯定是每月，通常是每週。

I spend a lot of time with the Tesla AI team and the Tesla Optimus team.

我花了很多時間與特斯拉 AI 團隊和特斯拉 Optimus 團隊在一起。

I mean, I go with the problem essentially, like not -- sometimes I can't talk to Tesla executive team and like, hey, we don't see you very often.

我的意思是，我本質上面臨的問題是，有時我無法與特斯拉執行團隊交談，就像，嘿，我們不常見到你們。

That's because your stuff is working awesome.

這是因為您的產品效果非常好。

You're working really great.

你工作得非常好。

Hadn't seen them very often because I go where the problem is.

由於我去問題發生的地方，所以我很少見到他們。

So at the problems like what's the greatest challenge that lies ahead.

那麼，我們面臨的最大挑戰是什麼呢？

So obviously, there's -- there are many challenges with Optimus.

顯然，Optimus 面臨許多挑戰。

It's a hard problem to solve.

這是一個很難解決的問題。

Main challenge is with the vehicle autonomy.

主要挑戰在於車輛的自主性。

But we're making products in both, yes.

但我們確實在兩種領域都生產產品。

Okay.

好的。

I mean, it sounds like you've got a conviction that the pieces you need, right, are in place.

我的意思是，聽起來你已經確信你需要的部分已經到位了。

If we kind of go 12 months down the line and we look back and you had some of those, but maybe what are the kind of two or three KPIs that would tell you that you're on track and it's going the right way, and the pieces you put in place are the right pieces, right?

如果我們回顧 12 個月，你會發現你有一些這樣的指標，但也許有哪兩個或三個 KPI 可以告訴你，你的工作進展順利，並且朝著正確的方向發展，您放置到位的碎片是正確的碎片，對嗎？

That's kind of what I'm looking for.

這正是我所尋找的東西。

Or other way around, where would it be off most likely in your mind that you say, hey, I need to go back there, and I need to change something to enable the team better?

或者反過來說，你最有可能想到的是，你會說，嘿，我需要回去那裡，我需要改變一些東西來讓團隊變得更好？

SP1 Well, I mean, I think the predictions that I'm making here are going to be pretty accurate.

SP1 嗯，我的意思是，我認為我在這裡做出的預測會非常準確。

And it's with the sometimes we loans always late.

有時我們貸款總是逾期。

Well, actually, no, the problems of the media reports on when I'm late but never reports when I'm early.

嗯，其實不是，媒體的問題是報道我遲到，卻從來不報我早到。

So sure, I'm optimistic but I'm not that optimistic.

所以確實，我很樂觀，但我沒有那麼樂觀。

There are many cases in past where actually we've been early such as completion of the Shanghai factory or the factory completion has generally been ahead of schedule, not behind.

過去有很多我們實際上提前完成的情況，例如上海工廠的竣工，或者整個工廠的竣工通常都是提前完成，而不是落後。

So yes.

所以是的。

So the -- but I'm very confident we'll have released unsupervised full self-driving, fully autonomous Teslas in Austin and several other cities in America by the end of this year, as probably everywhere in America next year, at everywhere in North America, at least.

所以——但我非常有信心，到今年年底，我們將在奧斯汀和美國其他幾個城市推出無人監督的全自動駕駛特斯拉汽車，明年很可能在美國各地推出，至少在北美是這樣。

I think in terms of next year, our constraints, I think it's likely to be just regulatory.

我認為就明年而言，我們的限制可能只是監管方面的。

Like Europe really has, for example, Europe is a layer cake of regulations of bureaucracy, which that really needs to be addressed.

例如歐洲確實存在著層層官僚監管制度，這個問題確實需要解決。

This is a like America innovates, Europe regulates.

這就像美國創新，歐洲監管。

So guys, there's too many reps in the field.

各位，這個領域裡的代表太多了。

For example, for us, just to release unsupervised full self-driving in Europe, even though it works really well, we have to go through with the Netherlands, which is our primary regulatory authority.

例如，對我們來說，僅僅為了在歐洲推出無人監督的全自動駕駛，儘管它運作得非常好，但我們必須通過荷蘭的審核，因為荷蘭是我們的主要監管機構。

Then the Netherlands presents us to the EU in, I think, May.

然後，我認為，荷蘭將在五月向歐盟介紹我們。

And there's like this EU country committee.

還有這樣的歐盟國家委員會。

We expect it to be approved at that time.

我們預計它屆時將獲得批准。

There's nothing we can do to make that may happen sooner.

我們無法做任何事情來讓這一天盡快發生。

In fact, nobody seems to do -- but I guess all the countries would have to somehow vote in some way to have it happen sooner than May.

事實上，似乎沒人這麼做——但我想所有國家都必須以某種方式投票，才能讓它在 5 月之前實現。

Otherwise, it wouldn't happen sooner than May.

否則，這件事不會在五月之前發生。

So the is unsupervised FSD a lot in Europe or like May next year, maybe?

那麼，歐洲會大量出現無人監督的 FSD 嗎？

I don't know.

我不知道。

Well, to find out when

好吧，想知道什麼時候

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

Sometimes it's a 12-month cadence, sometimes it's a 6-month cadence.

有時是 12 個月的節奏，有時是 6 個月的節奏。

Then China, which is a gigantic market, we do have some challenges because they weren't -- they currently allow us to transfer training video outside of China.

然後是中國，這是一個巨大的市場，我們確實面臨一些挑戰，因為他們目前不允許我們將培訓影片轉移到中國境外。

And then government won't let us do training in China.

然後政府不允許我們在中國接受訓練。

So we're in a bit of a there.

所以我們有點陷入困境。

It's like a quandary.

這就像一個兩難。

So we were solving then is by literally looking at videos of streets in China that are available on the Internet to understand and then feeding that into our training so that publicly available video of street signs and traffic rules in China can be used for training and then also putting it in a very accurate simulator.

因此，我們當時要解決的問題是，透過查看網路上可以找到的中國街道影片來理解，然後將其輸入到我們的訓練中，這樣就可以使用公開的中國街道標誌和交通規則影片進行訓練，然後並將其放入一個非常精確的模擬器中。

And so it will train using SIM for bus lanes in China.

因此它將使用 SIM 為中國的公車道進行訓練。

Like bus lanes in China are one of our biggest challenges in making FSD work in China is their bus lanes are very complicated.

就像中國的公車道一樣，我們在中國進行 FSD 工作面臨的最大挑戰之一是他們的公車道非常複雜。

And there's like literally like hours of the day that you're allowed to be there and not be there.

一天當中，你可以待在那裡的時間確實有幾個小時，也可以不在那裡。

And then if you accidently go in at bus lane at the wrong time, you get an automatic ticket instantly.

如果您不小心在錯誤的時間進入公車道，您會立即收到一張自動罰單。

And so it was kind of a big deal, bus lanes in China.

所以，在中國，公車專用道是一件大事。

So we put that into our simulator train on that, the car has to know what time data is, redesign.

所以我們把它放入我們的模擬器訓練中，汽車必須知道時間數據是什麼，重新設計。

We'll get this solved.

我們會解決這個問題。

But I think we'll have unsupervised FSD in almost every market this year, limited simply by regulatory issues, not technical capability.

但我認為，今年我們將在幾乎每個市場推出無人監督的 FSD，這只是受到監管問題而非技術能力的限制。

And then unsupervised FSD in the US this year, in many cities but nationwide next year.

今年，美國將在許多城市推行無人監管的 FSD，但明年將在全國推行。

And hopefully, we have unsupervised FSD in most countries by the end of next year.

我們希望到明年年底，大多數國家都能實現無人監督的 FSD。

That's my prediction with the best data that I have right now.

這是我根據目前掌握的最佳數據所做的預測。

Great.

偉大的。

The next question will come from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Adam, please feel free to unmute yourself.

亞當，請隨意取消靜音。

So Elon, you've said in the past about LiDAR, for EVs, that LIDAR is a crutch, a fool's errand.

所以埃隆，你過去曾經說過，對於電動車來說，光達是一個拐杖，是個愚蠢的差事。

I think you even told me once, even if it was free, you'd say you wouldn't use it.

我想你甚至曾經告訴我，即使它是免費的，你也會說你不會使用它。

Do you still feel that way?

你現在還有這種感覺嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Care to elaborate?

可以詳細說明一下嗎？

Or just I have another question.

或者我還有另一個問題。

Look, we even have a radar in the car and we turned it off.

看，我們的車上甚至有雷達，但我們把它關掉了。

I got it.

我得到了它。

People think you're crazy.

人們認為你瘋了。

But for...

但對於...

Obviously, humans drive without shooting lasers out of their eyes.

顯然，人類開車時不會從眼睛射出雷射。

I mean, unless you're superman.

我的意思是，除非你是超人。

But like humans drive just with passive visual.

但就像人類駕駛時僅靠被動視覺一樣。

Humans drive with eyes and a neural net and a bran neural net sort of biological -- so the digital equivalent of eyes and a brain are cameras and digital neural mets or AI.

人類透過眼睛、神經網路和類似生物的神經網路來駕駛——因此，眼睛和大腦的數位等價物是攝影機、數位神經網路或人工智慧。

So that's the entire road system was designed for passive optical neural nets.

所以整個道路系統都是為無源光學神經網路設計的。

As to how the whole real system which is not designed and what everyone is expecting, that's how we expect other cars to behave.

至於整個實際系統如何設計以及每個人都期待什麼，這就是我們期望其他汽車如何表現。

So therefore, that is very obviously a solution for full self-driving as a generalized.

因此，這顯然是一個通用的全自動駕駛解決方案。

But the generalized solution for full self-driving as opposed to the very specific neighborhood by neighborhood solution, which is to maintain, which is what our competitors are doing, yes, yes.

但是完全自動駕駛的通用解決方案與針對每個社區的非常具體的解決方案不同，後者是為了維護，這也是我們的競爭對手正在做的事情，是的，是的。

I mean, LiDAR doesn't work in the fall, guys?

我的意思是，秋天的時候 LiDAR 不工作了，夥計們？

LiDAR has a lot of issues.

LiDAR 存在著許多問題。

I don't absolutely like SpaceX dragging docs with the space station usually LIDAR, that a program that I personally spearheaded.

我絕對不喜歡 SpaceX 將文件與太空站（通常是 LIDAR）一起拖拽，這是我親自牽頭的項目。

I don't have some fundamental bizarre just like LiDAR, it's simply the wrong solution for driving cars on roads.

我並不認為 LiDAR 之類的技術根本就奇怪，它只是道路上駕駛汽車的錯誤解決方案。

Right.

正確的。

You understand how LiDAR works, I guess.

我想您已經了解 LiDAR 的工作原理了。

Literally designed and built our own red LiDAR.

我們確實設計並建造了我們自己的紅色光達。

I oversaw the project, the engineering thing.

我負責監督這個專案和工程事宜。

It was my intention to use LiDAR Dragon.

我本來打算使用 LiDAR Dragon。

And I always saw that engineering project directly.

而且我總是直接看到那個工程項目。

So like we literally designed and made a LiDAR space station.

所以就像我們確實設計並製造了一個 LiDAR 太空站。

I thought it was the right solution for cars, would do that, but it isn't.

我認為這是對汽車來說正確的解決方案，會這樣做，但事實並非如此。

Got you.

明白了。

All right.

好的。

Just as a follow-up.

僅作為後續行動。

At CES, you said -- I'm paraphrasing but any AI will be able to do any cognitive task not involving atoms within the next three or four years.

在 CES 上，您說過——我只是轉述一下，但任何人工智慧都將能夠在未來三到四年內完成任何不涉及原子的認知任務。

And that would imply, Elon, that before the end of President Trump's term in office, that AI would be moving pretty damn quickly into the physical world, the world of photons and ATMs.

埃隆，這意味著在川普總統任期結束之前，人工智慧將迅速進入物理世界，即光子和自動櫃員機的世界。

And I'm thinking, given your work with the administration, how confident are you that the US has -- will have the manufacturing and supply base to make good on your excitement about physical AI by the end of -- by latter this decade?

我在想，鑑於您在政府中的工作，您是否有信心到本世紀末美國將擁有製造和供應基礎，以實現您對物理人工智慧的興奮？

We seem pretty volatile right now.

我們目前看起來相當不穩定。

I've seen you tweeting about or sorry, X-ing, excuse me, Elon, about China -- Freudian slip, about China having like making more drones in a day than the US makes in a year and all the entanglement of the supply.

我看到你發推文說，對不起，埃隆，關於中國——弗洛伊德式的失言，關於中國一天生產的無人機比美國一年生產的還多，以及供應鏈上的種種糾葛。

So what has to happen in the US. to make that possible?

那麼美國將會發生什麼事呢？是否能實現這一點？

What's your message?

您的留言是什麼？

And what can you do about it and what's relevant for Tesla shareholders?

您能對此做些什麼？

Well, at Tesla, obviously, we think manufacturing is cool.

嗯，在特斯拉，我們顯然認為製造業很酷。

SpaceX, we think manufacturing is cool.

SpaceX，我們認為製造業很酷。

But in general, for talented Americans, they need to be -- beyond my companies, me and my teams here.

但總體而言，對於有才華的美國人來說，他們需要——超越我的公司、我和我的團隊。

In general, we need to make manufacturing cool again in America.

總的來說，我們需要讓美國製造業再次變得酷起來。

And like I honestly think people should move from like law and finance into manufacturing.

我真誠地認為人們應該從法律和金融業轉向製造業。

That's not.

那不是。

We have too many both complement and the criticism.

我們有太多的補充和批評。

We have too much talent in law and finance in America, and there should be more of that talent in manufacturing.

美國在法律和金融領域有太多人才，製造業也應該有更多這樣的人才。

So I mean, at Tesla, we're making sure that we can continue to manufacture our stuff even in the event of geopolitical tensions rising to very high levels.

所以我的意思是，在特斯拉，我們要確保即使地緣政治緊張局勢升級到非常高的水平，我們也能繼續生產我們的產品。

Great.

偉大的。

The next question will come from Pierre Ferragu at New Street.

下一個問題來自新街的皮埃爾費拉古 (Pierre Ferragu)。

Pierre, please feel free to unmute yourself.

皮埃爾，請隨時取消靜音。

So I have a question, Elon, on deploying like robotaxis in June in Austin, so that's great news.

所以我有一個問題，埃隆，關於六月在奧斯汀部署類似機器人出租車的問題，這是個好消息。

And I was wondering if it means I can drive down to Austin in June and try unsupervised by myself with my car or it's going to be more like your fleet testing it?

我想知道這是否意味著我可以在六月開車去奧斯汀，在無人監督的情況下親自嘗試駕駛我的車，或者這更像是你們的車隊測試？

It will be our fleet testing it.

我們的艦隊將對其進行測試。

That's how sort of toe in the water.

這就是試水的方式。

Would we very carefully to make sure it's not something we missed.

我們是否會非常仔細地確保我們沒有錯過任何東西。

But it will be right autonomous for in Austin in June, and then as shortly as possible, other cities in America.

但它將於六月在奧斯汀正式推出，然後儘快在美國其他城市推出。

And I expect us to be operating unsupervised activity with our internal fleet in several cities by the end of the year.

我預計到今年年底我們將可以在幾個城市使用我們的內部車隊進行無人監管的活動。

Then as probably next year when people are able to add or subtract their car from the fleet.

那麼很可能明年人們就可以在車隊中增加或減少他們的汽車了。

So kind of like Airbnb, where you can sort of add or subtract your house or your guestroom, add it to the Airbnb or don't add it to the Airbnb inventory.

這有點像 Airbnb，您可以添加或減少您的房子或客房，將其添加到 Airbnb 或不將其添加到 Airbnb 庫存中。

If you're traveling for a month, you can -- or whatever as maybe you can let other people use your house.

如果您要旅行一個月，您可以—或者無論如何，也許您可以讓其他人使用您的房子。

And then -- anyway, so that's probably next year because we want to just make sure we find out any kinks.

然後 — — 無論如何，這可能要等到明年了，因為我們只想確保發現任何問題。

And a lot of it -- it's not like we're not splitting atoms here.

其中很多——並不是說我們沒有在這裡分裂原子。

It's just a bunch of work that needs to be done to make sure the whole thing works, especially that people can order the car, it comes to the right spot, does exactly the right thing, all the payment systems work, the billing works.

需要做大量工作來確保整個系統正常運行，尤其是確保人們可以訂購汽車，汽車可以到達正確的地點，做正確的事情，所有支付系統都可以正常運行，計費系統也可以正常運行。

Yes.

是的。

But then so my follow-up question would be, I have a Tesla, I have FSD, and I have to keep my eyes on the road all the time.

但我的後續問題是，我有一輛特斯拉，有 FSD，我必須隨時注意路況。

It's super boring because I don't really need to intervene anymore.

這非常無聊，因為我真的不需要再介入了。

And the really annoying thing is that I can't just check my e-mails.

真正令人惱火的是，我無法查看電子郵件。

And so are you working also on introducing like a kind of like free unsupervised where I could be eyes off, and I would be able to check my e-mail and would just need to, with a five-second notice, have to go back and keep an eye on what's happening?

那麼，你們是否也在努力引入一種不受監管的自由，讓我可以不用看手機，可以查看電子郵件，只需要提前五秒鐘通知，就可以回去並關注正在發生的事情？

Or is that something you're working on as well because it feels so close with that I wonder if it's something we could expect for this year.

或者這也是您正在研究的事情，因為感覺它如此接近，我想知道這是否是我們今年可以期待的事情。

It's a very selfish question I ask for myself, to be honest.

說實話，這是我自問的一個很自私的問題。

Yes.

是的。

We need to be very confident that the probability of injury is low before we are able to check their e-mail and text messages.

我們必須非常確信受傷的可能性很低，然後才能檢查他們的電子郵件和簡訊。

In fact, right now, we're in this situation, which may have encountered yourself where people will actually go to manual driving to check their text messages, so the computer doesn't help them and then go -- then put it back on autonomous mode once they've checked the text messages, which is honestly less safe.

事實上，現在我們正處於這種情況，你可能也遇到過這種情況，人們實際上會手動駕駛來查看短信，所以電腦不會幫助他們，然後——然後把它放回去一旦他們檢查了短信，他們就會進入自主模式，但說實話，這不太安全。

Significantly less safe.

安全性明顯較低。

Significantly less safe than just letting people check their text once in a while without the computer yelling at them.

這顯然比讓人們偶爾檢查一下他們的文字而不讓電腦對他們大喊大叫要不安全得多。

But we just want to be cautious about the -- we're in the sort of neither here nor there.

但我們只是想保持謹慎——我們處於一種既不在這裡也不在那裡的狀態。

But just for -- I mean, I think it's not for many months longer.

但只是——我的意思是，我認為這不會持續太久。

But yes, we're in this perverse situation where we will turn the car off autopilot puts them check the text messages while steering the car with their knee and not looking out the window.

但是的，我們正處於這種反常的境地，我們會關閉汽車的自動駕駛儀，讓他們一邊查看短信，一邊用膝蓋操控汽車，而不是看窗外。

And it's like Elon said, right?

就像伊隆說的一樣，對吧？

If you have any problems when the system and when people are not looking, that is dangerous.

如果在系統和人們沒有註意的時候出現任何問題，那就很危險了。

And that's what we are trying to avoid.

這正是我們試圖避免的。

The capability is getting there but it's not fully there.

這種能力正在逐漸增強，但尚未完全實現。

That's why he was using the term dipping our toe in the water then getting comfortable.

這就是為什麼他使用了“先試水，然後感到舒服”這個詞。

Anyway, it's not far off, but we want to prove to ourselves prove ourselves and obviously prove to regulators that the car is unequivocally safer in autonomous mode than not.

不管怎樣，我們已經迫在眉睫，但我們想向自己證明，顯然也向監管機構證明，汽車在自動駕駛模式下絕對比非自動駕駛模式下更安全。

And that's -- we're not far off, so this is like low single-digit months.

而且 — — 我們相差不遠，所以這就像低個位數的月份。

Just to the safety aspect, we did publish our vehicle safety report today.

就安全方面而言，我們今天確實發布了我們的車輛安全報告。

And in Q4, there was 1 crash for every 5.9 million miles driven compared to a crash every 700,000 miles without

第四季度，每行駛 590 萬英里發生 1 起事故，而沒有

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

We're getting to the point where it's in order of magnitude better.

我們正逐步達到更好的水平。

Yes, like 8.5x safer.

是的，安全 8.5 倍。

That's amazing.

這太棒了。

Great.

偉大的。

And our last question will be coming from Dan Levy at Barclays.

我們的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Dan Levy。

Dan, feel free to unmute yourself.

丹，請隨意取消靜音。

Elon, you've talked about the need for proliferation of sustainable transport and is part of the sort of broader push to sustainable energy.

伊隆，你談到了推廣永續交通的必要性，這是推動永續能源發展的更廣泛舉措的一部分。

I know we've heard a lot about President Trump's plans to reverse the EV mandate.

我知道我們已經聽到了很多關於川普總統扭轉電動車強制令的計劃。

And I think there's a view that given regulation is a driver of EV uptake, this could slow EV uptake in the US.

我認為，有一種觀點認為，鑑於監管是推動電動車普及的因素，這可能會減緩美國電動車的普及。

So what would be your view on the right policy in the US, given your comments in the past that the need to push for sustainable transport?

那麼，鑑於您過去曾表示需要推動永續交通，您認為美國的正確政策是什麼？

At this point, I think that sustainable transport is inevitable.

從這一點來看，我認為永續交通是不可避免的。

I'm highly confident all transport will be autonomous electric, including aircraft, and that it's simply -- it can be stopped any more than one could have stopped the advent of the external combustion engine, steam engine or one could have stopped the advent of the internal combustion engine.

我非常有信心，所有交通工具都將電動化，包括飛機，而且它很簡單——就像人們無法阻止外燃機、蒸汽機的出現，也無法阻止電動車的出現一樣。

Like even if you've been the biggest advocate on Earth, like of the way on these newfangled car automobiles, you can't stop the advent of automobile.

例如，即使你是地球上這些新奇汽車的最大倡導者，你也無法阻止汽車的出現。

It's going to happen.

它將會發生。

And you can't stop the advent of electric cars.

你也無法阻止電動車的出現。

It's going to happen.

它將會發生。

The other thing holding back electric cars was range and that is a solved problem.

阻礙電動車發展的另一個因素是續航里程，而這個問題已經解決。

Great.

偉大的。

And then as a follow-up, in the past, Elon, you had made a comment that you'd be willing to sell cars at effectively no margin to get the cars out there.

然後作為後續問題，埃隆，過去你曾經說過，為了讓汽車暢銷，你願意以零利潤出售汽車。

And there's a comment in the release today of the rate of acceleration of the autonomy efforts does impact volume growth.

今天發布的新聞稿中有一則評論稱，自主化進程的加速確實會影響銷量成長。

So perhaps you could just talk about with your efforts on FSD, how we should think about your desire to put more vehicles out in the market to take advantage of your tech advances?

所以也許您可以談談您在 FSD 上所做的努力，我們應該如何看待您希望向市場推出更多汽車以利用您的技術進步的願望？

So I'm not sure I understand the question.

所以我不確定我是否理解了這個問題。

We have a lot of cars.

我們有很多車。

I mean, you've got millions of cars out there.

我的意思是，那裡有數百萬輛汽車。

So is there a question, Dan, that how do we marry our future growth aspects with FSD?

那麼丹，是否存在一個問題，那就是我們如何將我們未來的成長面向與 FSD 結合？

Go ahead, unmute yourself, Dan.

來吧，丹，取消靜音。

Yes.

是的。

More so just how much more aggressively you would be willing to sell your cars versus in light of your improvements on FSD?

更何況，考慮到您在 FSD 方面的改進，您願意多積極地銷售您的汽車？

Well, right now, the constraint we're trying to solve is battery production as opposed to demand.

嗯，現在，我們試圖解決的限制是電池生產而不是需求。

So we're -- and now Q1, we've got this massive factory retooling for the new Model Y, for example.

例如，現在是第一季，我們為新款 Model Y 進行了大規模的工廠改造。

That obviously has a short-term impact on output.

這顯然會對產出產生短期影響。

But the problem we were saying with, in fact, we're talking that the executive team and I were talking about just before this call was we've got to figure out how to increase total gigawatt hours of battery production this year one way or another.

但事實上，我和高階主管團隊在這次電話會議之前討論的問題是，我們必須想辦法增加今年電池的總產量其他。

That's the constraint on our output.

這就是我們產出的限制。

Great.

偉大的。

All right.

好的。

And with that, I think we are all done for today.

我想，今天的工作就到此結束了。

So thanks, everyone, so much for all your questions.

非常感謝大家提出的所有問題。

We look forward to talking to you next quarter.

我們期待下個季度與您交談。

Thank you very much, and goodbye.

非常感謝，再見。