特斯拉 (TSLA) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's fourth quarter 2024 Q&A webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, the Head of Investor Relations here at Tesla. And I'm joined today by Elon Musk and Vaibhav Taneja and a number of other executives. Our Q4 results were announced at about 3:00 PM Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

大家下午好，歡迎收聽特斯拉2024年第四季問答網路直播。我叫崔維斯‧阿克塞爾羅德 (Travis Axelrod)，是特斯拉投資者關係主管。今天和我一起出席的還有 Elon Musk、瓦伊巴夫·塔內賈 (Vaibhav Taneja) 和其他一些高管。我們的第四季業績於美國中部時間下午 3:00 左右在與本次網路廣播相同的連結中發布的更新報告中公佈。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Event Instructions) Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論是基於今天的預測和預期。由於多種風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。（活動說明）在我們進入問答環節之前，艾隆先講一些開場白。埃隆？

Thank you. So in summary, in Q4, we set record and delivered vehicles at an annualized rate of nearly 2 million a year. So congratulations to the Tesla team on excellent work, achieving record production and deliveries. Model Y was the best-selling vehicle of any kind for 2024. That's worth noting.

謝謝。總而言之，在第四季度，我們創下了紀錄，以每年近 200 萬輛的年化速度交付汽車。因此，恭喜特斯拉團隊的出色工作，實現了創紀錄的產量和交付量。Model Y 是 2024 年最暢銷的車款。這是值得注意的。

Not just the best electric vehicle, the best vehicle of any kind on Earth, number one was Model Y. We are staying focused on maximizing volumes and obviously doubling down -- I don't know what -- really, I was going to say doubling down in autonomy, but really, it's like autonomy is like 10x-ing frankly. Doubling is not even enough. We made many critical investments in 2024 in manufacturing, AI and robotics that will bear immense fruit in the future, immense. Like it's, in fact, to such a scale that it is difficult to comprehend.

Model Y 不僅是最好的電動車，也是地球上最好的車，排名第一的是 Model Y。我們將繼續專注於最大化產量，並且顯然會加倍努力——我不知道是什麼——實際上，我本來想說要加倍自主性，但實際上，坦白說，自主性就像是增加了 10 倍。加倍還不夠。2024 年，我們在製造業、人工智慧和機器人技術方面進行了許多關鍵投資，這些投資將在未來產生巨大的成果。事實上，它的規模如此之大，令人難以理解。

And I've said this before, and I'll stand by it. I see a path. I'm not saying it's an easy path, but I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far. Not even close, like maybe several times more than -- I mean, there is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined. There's a path to that.

我以前就說過這個，我會堅持這個觀點。我看見了一條路。我並不是說這是一條容易的路，但我認為特斯拉將成為迄今為止世界上最有價值的公司。甚至不是接近，可能是幾倍——我的意思是，特斯拉的價值有可能超過接下來的五家公司的總和。有一條路可以到達那裡。

I mean, I think it's like and incredibly it's like a difficult path, but it is an achievable path. And that is overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots. So our focus is actually building towards that. And then that's where we're laying the ground. We laid the groundwork for that in 2024.

我的意思是，我認為這是一條令人難以置信的艱難道路，但卻是一條可以實現的道路。這主要歸功於自動駕駛汽車和自主人形機器人。因此我們的重點其實就是朝著這個方向努力。這就是我們要奠定基礎的地方。我們在 2024 年為此奠定了基礎。

We'll continue to lay the groundwork for that in 2025. In fact, more than laying the groundwork, actually be building the structure. We're building the manufacturing lines. And I'd like -- setting up for what I think will be an epic 2026 and a ridiculous '27 and '28, ridiculously good. That is my prediction.

2025年，我們將繼續為此奠定基礎。事實上，這不僅要打基礎，更要建構結構。我們正在建設生產線。我希望為我認為會是史詩般的 2026 年以及荒謬的 2027 年和 2028 年做好準備，這將是極其美好的一年。這是我的預測。

As you have -- very few people understand the value of full self-driving and our ability to monetize the fleet. Some of these things I've said for quite a long time, and I don't know -- people have said, well, Elon is the boy who cried wolf like several times. But I'm telling you, there's a damn wolf at this time, and you can drive it. In fact, it could drive you. It's a self-driving wolf. For a lot of people, like their experience of Tesla Autonomy is like if it's even a year old, if it's even 2 years old, it's like meeting someone when they're like a toddler and thinking that they're going to be a toddler forever.

正如您所說—很少有人了解全自動駕駛的價值以及我們將車隊貨幣化的能力。有些事情我已經說了很久了，我不知道──人們已經說過，好吧，艾隆就像那個喊狼來了的孩子，說過好幾次了。但我告訴你，這時候有隻該死的狼，你可以驅趕它。事實上，它可以驅動你。這是一隻自動駕駛的狼。對許多人來說，他們對 Tesla Autonomy 的體驗就像是剛出生一歲，甚至兩歲，就像是在他們還是個蹣跚學步的孩子時遇到一個孩子，並認為他們將永遠是個蹣跚學步的孩子。

But obviously, not going to be a toddler forever, they grow up. But if their last experience was like, oh, FSD was a toddler. It's like, well, it's grown up now. Have you seen it? It's like walks and talks.

但顯然，他們不會永遠是蹣跚學步的孩子，他們會長大。但如果他們最後的經歷就像，哦，FSD 還是個蹣跚學步的孩子。就好像，嗯，它現在已經長大了。你看到了嗎？就像散步和談話一樣。

And that's really what we've got. And it's difficult to -- for people to understand this because human intuition is linear as opposed to what we're seeing is exponential progress. So that's why my #1 recommendation for anyone who doubts is simply try it. Have you tried it? When's the last time you tried it?

這確實就是我們所得到的。人們很難理解這一點，因為人類的直覺是線性的，而我們所看到的則是指數級的進步。所以這就是為什麼我對任何有疑問的人的首要建議就是嘗試一下。你試過了嗎？您上次嘗試是什麼時候？

And the only people who are skeptical, the only people who are skeptical are those who have not tried it. So a car goes -- a passenger car typically has only about 10 hours of utility per week out of 168, a very small percentage. Once that car is autonomous, my rough estimate is that it is in use for at least 1/3 of the hours per week, so call it, 50, maybe 55 hours of the week. And it can be used for both cargo delivery and people delivery. So even, let's say, but you can deliver packages in the middle of the night or resupply restaurants or whatever the case may be, whatever people need at all hours of the day or night.

唯一持懷疑態度的人，唯一持懷疑態度的人是那些沒有嘗試過的人。所以一輛汽車——一輛乘用車通常每週只有大約 10 小時的使用時間（總共 168 小時），這是一個非常小的比例。一旦汽車實現自動駕駛，我粗略估計它每週的使用時間至少為 1/3 小時，也就是每週 50 至 55 小時。既可用於運送貨物，也可用於運送人員。也就是說，你可以在半夜遞送包裹或為餐廳補給，或者無論什麼情況，無論人們在白天或晚上的任何時候都需要什麼。

That same asset, the thing that -- these things that already exist with no incremental cost change, just a software update, now have 5x or more the utility than they currently have. I think this will be the largest asset value increase in human history. Maybe there's something bigger but I just don't know what it is. And so people who would look in the rearview mirror are looking for past precedent, except I don't think there is one. So look, the reality of autonomy is upon us.

同樣的資產，這些已經存在的東西，沒有增加成本變化，只是軟體更新，現在的實用性是現在的 5 倍或更多。我認為這將是人類史上最大的資產價值成長。也許還有更大的東西，但我不知道它是什麼。因此，回顧過去的人都在尋找過去的先例，但我認為並不存在這樣的先例。所以，看看吧，自治的現實已經降臨到我們頭上。

And I repeat my advice, try driving the car or let it drive you. So now it works very well in the US, but of course, it will, over time, work just as well everywhere else. Yes, so we're working hard to grow our annual volumes. Our constraint is -- our current constraint is battery packs this year but we're working on addressing that constraint. And I think we will make progress in addressing that constraint.

我再次重申我的建議，嘗試駕駛汽車或讓它駕駛你。因此，現在它在美國運行得很好，但當然，隨著時間的推移，它在其他地方也會同樣有效。是的，所以我們正在努力提高我們的年產量。我們的限制是——我們目前的限制是今年的電池組，但我們正在努力解決這個限制。我認為我們將在解決這項限制上取得進展。

And then things are really going to go ballistic next year and really ballistic in '27 and '28. So yes, so a bit more on full self-driving. Our Q4 vehicle safety report shows continued year-over-year improvement in safety for vehicles. So the safety numbers, if somebody has -- supervises full self-driving turn on or not, the safety differences are gigantic. And people have seen the immense improvement with Version 13, and with incremental versions in Version 13 and 14 is going to be yet another step beyond that, that is very significant.

那麼明年情況就會變得非常嚴重，27 年和 28 年更是會變得非常嚴重。是的，關於完全自動駕駛還有更多內容。我們的第四季車輛安全報告顯示，車輛安全性年減。因此，從安全數字來看，如果有人監督完全自動駕駛，無論是否開啟，安全差異都是巨大的。人們已經看到了版本 13 的巨大改進，而版本 13 和 14 的增量版本將在此基礎上更進一步，這是非常重要的。

We launched the training cluster at Gigafactory Austin, which was a significant contributor to FSD advancement. And we continue to invest in training infrastructure out of Texas headquarters. So the training needs for Optimus, our occupancy humanoid robot are probably at least ultimately 10x what is needed for the car, at least to get to the full range of useful role. You can say like how many different roles are there for a humanoid robot versus a car? A humanoid robot has probably 1,000x more uses and more complex things than in a car.

我們在奧斯汀超級工廠啟動了訓練集群，這對 FSD 的發展做出了重大貢獻。我們將繼續投資德州總部的培訓基礎設施。因此，對於我們的乘員類人機器人 Optimus 來說，其訓練需求可能至少是汽車所需訓練需求的 10 倍，至少要使其充分發揮有用的作用。您可以說，人形機器人和汽車有多少不同的角色？人形機器人的用途可能比汽車多 1,000 倍，功能也更複雜。

That doesn't mean the training scales by 1,000 but it's probably at 10x. Now you can do this progressively, so it doesn't mean like Tesla's going to spend like $500 billion in training compute because we will obviously train Optimus to do enough tasks to match the output of robots. And obviously, the cost of training is dropping dramatically with time. But it is -- it's one of those things where I think long-term, Optimus will be -- Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue, like it's really bananas. So that you can obviously a lot of training compute in that situation.

這並不意味著訓練規模會擴大 1,000 倍，但可能是 10 倍。現在你可以逐步做到這一點，所以這並不意味著特斯拉要花費 5000 億美元進行訓練計算，因為我們顯然會訓練 Optimus 完成足夠的任務來匹配機器人的輸出。顯然，培訓成本隨著時間的推移而急劇下降。但我認為，從長遠來看，Optimus 有潛力創造超過 10 兆美元的收入，這真是太瘋狂了。因此，在這種情況下你顯然可以進行大量的訓練計算。

In fact, even $500 billion training compute in that situation will be quite a good deal. Yes, the future is going to be incredibly different from the past, that's for sure. We live at this unbelievable inflection point in human history. So yes, so the proof is in the pudding. So we're going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June.

事實上，在這種情況下，即使 5000 億美元的訓練計算也是一筆相當不錯的交易。是的，未來肯定會與過去截然不同。我們正處於人類歷史上這個令人難以置信的轉捩點。是的，事實勝於雄辯。因此，我們將於 6 月在奧斯汀推出無人監督的全自動駕駛付費服務。

So I talked to the team. We feel confident in being able to do an initial launch of unsupervised, no one in the car, full self-driving in Austin in June. We already have Tesla's operating autonomously unsupervised full self-driving at our factory in Fremont, and we'll soon be doing that at our factory in Texas. So thousands of cars every day are driving with no one in them at our Fremont factory in California, that we'll soon be doing that in Austin and then elsewhere in the world, the rest of our factories, which is pretty cool. And the cars aren't just driving to exactly the same spot because, obviously, it all -- at the same spot.

所以我和團隊進行了交談。我們有信心在六月於奧斯汀首次推出無人監督、無人駕駛的全自動駕駛汽車。我們在弗里蒙特的工廠已經實現了特斯拉無人監督的全自動駕駛，我們很快就會在德克薩斯州的工廠實現這一目標。在我們位於加州弗里蒙特的工廠裡，每天都有數千輛汽車在無人駕駛的情況下行駛，我們很快就會在奧斯汀以及世界其他地方的工廠也實行這種做法，這非常酷。而且汽車並不是開往完全相同的地點，因為顯然，一切都在同一個地點。

The cars are actually programmed with where -- with what lane they need to park into to be picked up for delivery. So the drive from the factory end of line to their destination parking spot and to be picked up for delivery to customers and then doing this reliably every day, thousands of times a day. It's pretty cool. Like I said, these Tesla's will be in the wild with no one in them in June in Austin. So what I'm saying is this is not some far-off mythical situation.

實際上，這些汽車已經經過編程，確定它們需要停在哪條車道上以便被接走進行送貨。因此，從工廠生產線末端開車到目的地停車位，然後被接走交付給客戶，然後每天可靠地執行此操作數千次。這很酷。就像我說的，這些特斯拉六月將在奧斯汀無人駕駛。所以我想說的是，這並不是什麼遙遠的神話故事。

It's literally five, six months away, five months away kind of thing. And while we're stepping -- putting our toe in the water gently at first just to make sure everything is cool, our solution, our sort of solution is a generalized AI solution. It does not require high precision maps of locality. So we just want to be cautious. It's not that it doesn't work beyond Austin.

確切地說，還有五、六個月，甚至五個月的時間。當我們開始嘗試時——首先輕輕地將腳趾放入水中，只是為了確保一切順利，我們的解決方案，我們的解決方案是通用的人工智慧解決方案。它不需要高精度的局部地圖。所以我們只是想謹慎一點。這並不是說它在奧斯汀以外的地方就不起作用了。

In fact, it does. We just want to be -- put our toe in the water, make sure everything is okay, then put a few more toes in the water, then put a foot in the water with safety of the general public as and those in the car as our top priority. With regard to Optimus, obviously, I'm making these revenue predictions that sound absolutely insane, I realize that. But they are -- I think they will prove to be accurate. Now with Optimus, there's a lot of uncertainty on the exact timing because it's not like a train arriving at the station for Optimus.

事實上，確實如此。我們只是想——先試水，確保一切正常，然後再試幾次，再試一次，把公眾和車內人員的安全放在首位。關於 Optimus，顯然，我做出的這些收入預測聽起來非常瘋狂，我意識到了這一點。但它們是——我認為它們將被證明是準確的。現在，對於擎天柱來說，其確切時間有許多不確定性，因為擎天柱不像火車一樣到達車站。

We are designing the train at the station and in real time while also building the tracks. And sort of like, why didn't the train arrive exactly at 12:05? And like we're designing the train and the tracks in the station in real-time while like how can we this thing with absolute precision? It's impossible. The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year.

我們在車站即時設計火車，同時也在建造軌道。有點像，為什麼火車沒有在 12:05 準時到達？就像我們正在實時設計車站的火車和軌道一樣，我們如何絕對精確地完成這件事？這不可能。正常的內部計畫是今年生產約 10,000 台 Optimus 機器人。

Will we succeed in building 10,000 exactly by the end of December this year? Probably not, but will we succeed in making several thousand? Yes, I think we will. Will those several thousand Optimus robots be doing useful things by the end of the year? Yes, I'm confident they will do useful things.

我們能在今年12月底準確建成10,000座嗎？可能不會，但是我們能成功生產幾千個嗎？是的，我想我們會的。今年底，這幾千台擎天柱機器人會做出有用的事嗎？是的，我相信他們會做出有用的事。

Those Optimus use at the Tesla factories for production design 1 will inform how will we change for production design 2, which we expect to launch next year. And our goal is to run Optimus production faster than maybe anything has ever been ramped, meaning like aspirationally in order of magnitude, ramp per year. Now if we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps, we only end up with a half order of magnitude per year. But that's the kind of growth that we're talking about. It doesn't take very many years before we're making 100 million of these things a year if you go up by let's say, a factor by 5x per year.

Optimus 在特斯拉工廠用於生產設計 1 時所採用的那些設計將告訴我們在生產設計 2 中將如何改變，我們預計將於明年推出生產設計 2。我們的目標是以前所未有的速度提高 Optimus 的生產速度，也就是每年以數量級提高生產速度。現在，如果我們期望每年增加一個數量級，那麼也許最終我們每年只能增加半個數量級。但這就是我們所談論的成長。如果以每年 5 倍的速度成長，那麼用不了幾年我們就能每年生產 1 億個這樣的產品。

It's insane.

這太瘋狂了。

Insane. Not 50%, 500%. Big growth numbers. Yes. But we do need to be -- this is an entirely new supply chain; it's entirely new technology.

瘋狂的。不是 50%，而是 500%。龐大的成長數字。是的。但我們確實需要──這是一個全新的供應鏈；這是全新的技術。

There's nothing off the shelf to use. We tried desperately with Optimus to use any existing motors or any actuators, sensors. Nothing worked for us at any price. We had to design everything from principles to work for humanoid robot and with the most sophisticated hand that has ever been made before by far. Optimus will be also able to play the piano and be able to thread a needle.

沒有任何現成的東西可以使用。我們拼命嘗試讓 Optimus 使用任何現有的馬達、執行器和感測器。無論付出什麼代價，都無法為我們帶來任何效果。我們必須設計人形機器人的一切，從原理到工作原理，以及迄今為止最複雜的手。擎天柱還能彈鋼琴和穿針引線。

I mean, this is the level of precision no one has been able to achieve. And so it's really something special, so yes. And long-term stopes will be overwhelmingly the value of the company. Regarding energy, backed up back to us. It was, Elon, you come back here for a minute. Back to us, energy storage is a big deal and will become -- it's already super important, will become incredibly important in the future.

我的意思是，這種精度水準至今無人能達到。所以這確實是一件特別的事情，是的。而長期的礦藏將占公司價值的絕大部分。關於能源，又回到了我們手中。是這樣的，埃隆，你回來一下。回到我們這裡，能源儲存是一件大事，而且會變得──它已經非常重要，將來會變得非常重要。

And it is something that enables far greater energy output to the grid than is currently possible because the grids are -- the vast majority of the grid has no energy storage capability. So they have to design the power plants to -- for very high peaks and assuming that there's no energy storage. Once you have grid energy storage and home-based energy storage, the actual total energy output per year of the grid is dramatically greater than people think. Maybe it's at least double. This will drive the demand of stationary battery packs and especially the grid-scale ones to and saying basically as much demand as we can possibly make.

它可以使電網輸出的能量遠遠超過目前的能力，因為絕大多數電網沒有能量儲存能力。因此，他們必須設計發電廠以應對非常高的峰值，並假設沒有能量儲存。一旦有了電網儲能和家庭儲能，電網每年的實際總能量輸出將遠遠超出人們的想像。也許至少是兩倍。這將推動固定電池組（尤其是電網規模電池組）的需求，基本上達到我們所能滿足的最大需求。

So we have our second factory, which is in Shanghai, that's starting operation, and we're building a third factory. So we're trying to ramp output of the stationary battery storage as quickly as possible. Now there is a challenge here where we have to be careful to -- that were not robbing from one bucket to take to another bucket because for a given gigawatt hours per year of the cell output, does it go into stationary applications or mobile applications? It can't go both into both, so we have to make that trade-off, yes. But overall, the demand for total gigawatt hours of batteries, whether mobile or stationary, that will grow in a very, very big way over time.

我們位於上海的第二家工廠已經投入運營，而且我們正在建造第三家工廠。因此，我們正在嘗試盡快提高固定電池儲存的輸出。現在面臨的一個挑戰是，我們必須小心——不要從一個桶子裡搶到另一個桶子裡，因為對於給定的每年千兆瓦時的電池輸出，它是用於固定應用還是行動應用？兩者不可能同時發生，所以我們必須做出權衡，是的。但總體而言，無論是行動電池還是固定電池，對總千兆瓦時的需求都會隨著時間的推移而大幅增長。

So in conclusion, 2025 really is a pivotal year for Tesla. And when we look back on 2025 and the launch of unsupervised full self-driving, true real-world AI that actually works, I think we may regard it as the biggest year in Tesla history, maybe even bigger than Atlas car, or the Model S or the Model 3 or Model Y. In fact, I think it probably will be viewed '25 as maybe the most important year in Tesla's history. There is no company in the world that is as good in real-world AI as Tesla. I don't even know who's in second place.

所以總而言之，2025 年對特斯拉來說確實是關鍵的一年。當我們回顧 2025 年以及真正有效的無人監督全自動駕駛、真實世界人工智慧的推出時，我認為我們可以將其視為特斯拉歷史上最重要的一年，甚至可能比 Atlas 汽車、Model S、Model 3 或 Model Y 還要偉大。事實上，我認為 25 年可能會被視為特斯拉歷史上最重要的一年。世界上沒有一家公司在現實世界的人工智慧方面能像特斯拉一樣出色。我甚至不知道第二名是誰。

Like you say, like, who's in the second place for real-world AI? I would need a very big telescope to see them. That's how far behind they are. All right.

就像你說的，在現實世界的人工智慧領域，誰能排在第二名？我需要一架很大的望遠鏡才能看到它們。他們落後的程度就是這麼大。好的。

Great. Thank you very much, Elon. And Vaibhav has some opening remarks as well.

偉大的。非常感謝，埃隆。Vaibhav 也發表了一些開場白。

Yes, I'll talk about things on Earth. As Elon mentioned, in Q4, we set records of vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployments in an uncertain macro environment. We were able to grow auto and energy storage volumes, both sequentially and on a year-on-year basis. For this, I would like to thank the efforts of everyone at Tesla to make this a reality, and our customers who helped us achieve this. Coming into the fourth quarter, our focus was to reduce inventory levels in the automotive business, and we accomplished that by ending the quarter with the lowest finished good inventory in the last two years.

是的，我會談論地球上的事情。正如伊隆所提到的，在第四季度，我們在不確定的宏觀環境下創下了汽車交付和儲能部署的記錄。我們能夠實現汽車和能源儲存容量的連續和同比增長。為此，我要感謝特斯拉所有人為實現這一目標所做的努力，以及幫助我們實現這一目標的客戶。進入第四季度，我們的重點是降低汽車業務的庫存水平，並且我們在本季度結束時實現了兩年來最低的成品庫存水平。

This was a result of offering not only attractive financing options but also other discounts and programs, which impacted ASPs. While we saw volume growth in almost all regions that we operate in, we hit a new record for deliveries in the Greater China market. This is an encouraging trend since we grew volume in a highly competitive BEV market. On the automotive margin front, we saw a quarter-over-quarter decline primarily due to lower ASPs than due to the recognition of FSD-related revenue in Q3 from feature releases. Our journey on cost reduction continues, and we were able to get our overall cost per car down below $35,000, driven primarily from costs.

這是因為不僅提供了有吸引力的融資選擇，而且還提供了其他折扣和計劃，從而影響了平均售價。雖然我們經營的幾乎所有地區的銷售都實現了成長，但我們在大中華區市場的交付量創下了新紀錄。這是一個令人鼓舞的趨勢，因為我們在競爭激烈的純電動車市場中實現了銷售成長。在汽車利潤率方面，我們看到季度環比下降，主要是由於平均售價較低，而非第三季因功能發布而確認的 FSD 相關收入。我們繼續致力於降低成本，並且我們能夠將每輛車的總成本降至 35,000 美元以下，這主要歸功於成本。

This was despite increased depreciation and other costs as we prepare for the transition to the new Model Y, for which we recently started taking orders in all markets. All our factories will start producing the new Model Y next month. While we feel confident in our team's abilities to ramp production know that it is an unprecedented change, and we are not aware of anybody else taking the best-selling car on the planet and updating all factories at the same time. This changeover will result in several weeks of lost production in the quarter. As a result, margins will be impacted due to idle capacity and other ramp-related costs, as is common in any launch but will be overcome as production is ramped.

儘管我們為過渡到新款 Model Y 做好了準備，折舊和其他成本有所增加，但我們仍然取得了這樣的成績，最近我們開始在所有市場接受 Model Y 的訂單。我們所有的工廠將於下個月開始生產新款 Model Y。雖然我們對團隊提高產量的能力充滿信心，但要知道這是一個前所未有的變化，我們不知道還有其他人會把地球上最暢銷的汽車同時更新所有工廠。此次轉換將導致本季數週的生產損失。因此，利潤率將因閒置產能和其他生產爬坡相關成本而受到影響，這在任何產品發布中都是常見的，但隨著產量的提高，這個問題將會被克服。

We will be introducing several new products throughout 2025. We are still on track to launch a more affordable model in the first half of 2025 and will continue to expand our lineup from there. From a dollar-for-dollar basis, we believe we have the most dramatic lineup today compared to the industry, and it will continue to get better from here. As always, all our products come with the best software in the industry, autonomy features and capable of full autonomy in the future. And despite the premium experience, the total cost of ownership is close to market, less premium competitors.

我們將在 2025 年推出多款新產品。我們仍有望在 2025 年上半年推出更實惠的車型，並將繼續擴大我們的產品線。從實際來看，我們相信我們目前擁有與該行業相比最戲劇性的陣容，並將繼續變得更好。像往常一樣，我們的所有產品都配備了業內最好的軟體、自主功能，並能夠在未來實現完全自主。儘管體驗很高端，但整體擁有成本卻接近市場水平，低於高端競爭對手。

Energy storage deployments reached an all-time high in Q4, and this resulted in -- but declined sequentially. This was a result of higher -- sorry, growth came from Megapack and Power. Both businesses continue to be supply constrained, and like mentioned, we're trying to ramp up production with mega-factory Shanghai coming online this quarter onwards. While quarterly deployments will likely continue to fluctuate sequentially, we expect at least 50% growth in deployments year-over-year in 2025. Gross profit and margins in the service and other business was up year-over-year but declined sequentially.

能源儲存部署在第四季度達到了歷史最高水平，但這導致——但環比下降。這是更高的結果——抱歉，成長來自 Megapack 和 Power。兩家公司的供應仍然受限，正如前面提到的，我們正試圖透過本季開始投入使用的上海大型工廠來提高產量。雖然季度部署量可能會繼續連續波動，但我們預計 2025 年部署量將年增至少 50%。服務及其他業務的毛利和利潤率同比增長，但環比下降。

This was the result of higher service center costs and lower profit from used car business. The businesses within service and other primarily support our new car business, especially through the impact on total cost of ownership. Therefore, while we manage them to be positive on a GAAP basis, we do not expect similar margins as the rest of the business. There's a lot of uncertainty around tariffs. Over the years, we've tried to localize our supply chain in every market, but we are still very reliant on parts from across the world for all our businesses.

這是由於服務中心成本上升和二手車業務利潤下降所造成的。服務和其他業務主要支持我們的新車業務，尤其是透過對總擁有成本的影響。因此，儘管我們在 GAAP 基礎上將其管理為正值，但我們並不期望其利潤率與其他業務相似。關稅方面存在著許多不確定性。多年來，我們一直努力在每個市場實現供應鏈本地化，但我們的所有業務仍然非常依賴來自世界各地的零件。

Therefore, the imposition of tariffs, which is very likely, and any of the will have an impact on our business and profitability. Our operating expenses grew both year-over-year and sequentially. The biggest driver of the increase was R&D as we continue to invest in AI-related initiatives. The remaining increase came from growth in our sales capabilities and marketing efforts from referral program. For 2025, we expect operating expenses to increase to support our growth initiatives.

因此，徵收關稅是很有可能的，任何一項措施都會對我們的業務和獲利能力產生影響。我們的營運費用年增，季增。隨著我們繼續投資於人工智慧相關計劃，研發成為成長的最大驅動力。剩餘的成長來自於我們的銷售能力的成長和推薦計畫的行銷力度。到 2025 年，我們預計營運費用將會增加，以支持我們的成長計畫。

It is important to point out that the net income in Q4 was impacted by a $600 million mark-to-market benefit from Bitcoin due to the adoption of a new accounting standard for digital assets, whereby we will change -- we will take mark-to-market adjustments through other income every reporting period going forward. Our free cash flow for the quarter was $2 billion, and despite CapEx increase of over $2.4 billion in 2024, we were able to generate free cash flow of $3.6 billion for the year.

值得指出的是，由於採用了新的數位資產會計準則，第四季度的淨收入受到了比特幣 6 億美元市價調整收益的影響，因此我們將進行更改——我們將在以後的每個報告期通過其他收入進行市價調整。我們本季的自由現金流為 20 億美元，儘管 2024 年的資本支出增加了 24 億美元以上，但我們全年仍能產生 36 億美元的自由現金流。

CapEx efficiency is something we are extremely focused on. While we have invested in AI-related initiatives, we have done so in a very targeted manner to utilize the spend to get immediate benefits. The build-out of Cortex was accelerated because of the role -- actually to accelerate the rollout of FSD Version 13.

我們非常關注資本支出效率。雖然我們已經對人工智慧相關項目進行了投資，但我們是以非常有針對性的方式進行的，以便利用支出獲得直接利益。Cortex 的建置因其作用而加速——實際上是為了加速 FSD 版本 13 的推出。

Accumulated AI-related CapEx, including infrastructure, so far has been approximately $5 billion. And for 2025, we expect our CapEx to be flat on a year-over-year basis. In conclusion, like Elon said, 2025 is going to be a pivotal year for Tesla. There are a lot of investments which we have made and will continue to make in this coming year, which will set the pace for the next phase of growth. And it is something which now I'm getting out on the floor, it is going to be out of this world.

到目前為止，包括基礎設施在內的人工智慧相關資本支出累計約 50 億美元。到 2025 年，我們預計資本支出將與去年同期持平。總而言之，正如伊隆所說，2025 年將是特斯拉的關鍵一年。我們已經進行了大量投資，並將在來年繼續進行投資，這將為下一階段的成長奠定基礎。現在，我正在把這個東西帶到會場上，它將是無與倫比的。

And we just are putting the -- and that's all I have.

我們只是在做——這就是我所知道的全部。

Great. Thank you very much, Vaibhav. Then we will move over to investor questions and we'll start with say.com.

偉大的。非常感謝，Vaibhav。然後我們將轉到投資者問題，我們將從 say.com 開始。

The first question is, is unsupervised FSD still planned to be released in Texas and California this year? What hurdles still exist to make that happen? You addressed the Texas piece, I think, already, so --

第一個問題是，今年是否仍計劃在德州和加州推出無人駕駛FSD？要實現這目標還面臨哪些障礙？我認為你已經提到了德克薩斯州的問題，所以--

Yes, I'm confident that we'll release unsupervised FSD California this year as well. Yes, in fact, I think we will most likely release unsupervised FSD in many regions of the country of the US by the end of this year. Like I say, we're just putting our toe in the water, then a few toes, then a food, then leg, then make sure everything is cool. And we're looking for a safety level that is significantly above the average human driver.

是的，我相信我們今年也會在加州推出無人監管的 FSD。是的，事實上，我認為我們很可能會在今年年底前在美國許多地區推出無人監督的 FSD。就像我說的，我們只是把腳趾放進水里，然後幾個腳趾，然後是食物，然後是腿，然後確保一切都很酷。我們追求的安全水準遠高於一般人類駕駛。

So it's not anywhere like much safer, not like a little bit safer than he was safe in here. So the standard has to be very high because at the moment, if there's any kind of accident with an autonomous car, that immediately gets worldwide headlines, even though about 40,000 people die every year in car accidents in the US, and most don't even get mentioned anywhere. But if somebody within autonomous car, it's headline news.

所以，那裡並不比他在這裡安全多少，也不比他在這裡安全一點。因此標準必須非常高，因為目前，如果自動駕駛汽車發生任何類型的事故，都會立即成為全球頭條新聞，儘管美國每年約有 40,000 人死於車禍，而且大多數人甚至沒有被提及。但如果有人擁有自動駕駛汽車，那就會成為頭條新聞。

We won't reward that.

我們不會獎勵這種行為。

Yes. So it's really from a -- the only thing holding us back is an excess of caution. But people can certainly get a feel for how well the car would perform as unsupervised FSD by simply having a car -- allowing the car to drive you around your city and see how many times did you have to intervene, not where you wanted to intervene or were little concerned. But how many times did you have to be intervened for definite safety reasons? And you will find that, that is very rare and over time, almost never.

是的。所以實際上──唯一阻礙我們前進的就是過度謹慎。但人們當然可以透過一輛車來感受汽車作為無人監督 FSD 的表現如何——讓汽車載著你在城市裡四處走走，看看你需要乾預多少次，而不是在你想要幹預或不太擔心的地方。但是出於明確的安全原因，您有多少次必須介入？你會發現，這種情況非常罕見，而且隨著時間的推移，幾乎不會再發生。

Great. The next question is, are there any discussions with other auto companies about licensing FSD?

偉大的。下一個問題是，是否與其他汽車公司討論過 FSD 授權問題？

Yes. What we're seeing is at this point, significant interest from a number of major car companies about licensing Tesla full self-driving technology. What we've generally said is the best way to know what to do is take one of our cars apart. And then you can see where the placement of the cameras are, what the thermal needs are of the Tesla AI inference computer. That's better than us selling CAD drawings.

是的。目前我們看到的是，許多大型汽車公司對授權特斯拉全自動駕駛技術表現出濃厚的興趣。我們通常說，知道該做什麼的最好方法就是拆開我們的一輛車。然後你就可以看到攝影機的位置，以及特斯拉人工智慧推理計算機的熱需求是什麼。這比我們銷售 CAD 圖紙要好。

And then we're only going to entertain situations where the volume would be very -- otherwise, it's not worth the complexity. And we will not burden our engineering team with laborious discussions with other engineering teams until we obviously have unsupervised full self-driving working throughout the United States. I think the interest level from other manufacturers to license FSD will be extremely high once it is obvious that unless you have FSD, you're dead.

然後，我們只會考慮數量非常大的情況——否則，它不值得這麼複雜。在我們顯然能夠在美國各地實現無人監督的全自動駕駛之前，我們不會讓我們的工程團隊與其他工程團隊進行費力的討論。我認為，一旦人們明顯意識到，沒有 FSD 你就死定了，其他製造商對 FSD 授權的興趣就會非常高。

Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, is Optimus now mostly design-locked for 2025 production?

偉大的。非常感謝。下一個問題是，Optimus 現在是否主要設計鎖定在 2025 年生產？

Optimus is not design-locked. So let's say like we're designing the train as it's going to -- we're redesigning the train as it's going down the tracks while redesigning the tracks and the train stations.

Optimus 並未受到設計鎖定。假設我們正在設計火車，我們正在重新設計火車沿著軌道行駛，同時重新設計軌道和火車站。

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Yes, it's rapidly evolving. It's rapidly evolving in a good direction. It's pretty d*** amazing actually. The team is doing a fantastic job. We really have, I think, by far the best team of humanoid robotics engineers in the world.

是的，它正在快速發展。它正在朝著好的方向快速發展。事實上這真是太神奇了。該團隊表現出色。我認為，我們確實擁有迄今為止世界上最好的人形機器人工程師團隊。

And we also have all the other ingredients necessary because you need a great battery pack, you need great power electronics, you need great charging capability. You need a great communications, a WiFi and cellular connectivity. And of course, you need real-world AI and then the ability to scale that production to huge levels, so you have to design for manufacturing. The things that -- I mean, really what other companies are missing is they're missing the real-world AI and they're missing the ability to scale manufacturing to millions of units a year.

我們也擁有所有其他必要的要素，因為你需要一個強大的電池組，你需要強大的電力電子設備，你需要強大的充電能力。您需要良好的通訊、WiFi 和蜂窩連線。當然，你需要現實世界的人工智慧，然後具備將生產規模擴大到巨大水平的能力，所以你必須為製造而設計。我的意思是，其他公司真正缺少的是現實世界的人工智慧，以及他們缺乏將生產規模擴大到每年數百萬台的能力。

I think that is an underappreciated thing that industrialization of design is a whole different thing than making a design.

我認為人們沒有充分認識到設計的工業化與設計製作是完全不同的。

Yes, prototypes are trivial basically. Prototypes are easy production is there for many years. The problem is there's like those who have never been involved in production or manufacturing somehow think that may -- once you come up with some eureka design, that you magically can make 1 million units a year, and this is totally false. There needs to be some -- there's some Hollywood story or where they show actually the problem is manufacturing. I've never even heard of one.

是的，原型基本上很簡單。原型很容易生產，而且已經存在很多年了。問題是，那些從未參與過生產或製造的人不知何故認為，一旦你想出一些靈光乍現的設計，你就能神奇地每年生產 100 萬台，但這完全是錯誤的。需要有一些——一些好萊塢故事，或者他們表明問題實際上在於製造業。我從來沒有聽過。

It just doesn't fit the narrative. The Hollywood thing is like some lone inventor in a garage goes eureka. And suddenly, it files a patent, and suddenly, there's millions of units. And like I'm listening to the guys, we're missing really 99% of the story. 1% is -- a product is 1% inspiration, 99% perspiration.

這根本不符合故事情節。好萊塢就像是車庫裡某個孤獨的發明家突然靈光一現。突然間，它申請了專利，突然間，就有了數百萬台。就像我在聽那些人說的那樣，我們實際上錯過了 99% 的故事。 1% 是－一個產品是 1% 的靈感，99% 的汗水。

Hollywood shows you the 1% inspiration and minus -- but forgets about the 99% perspiration of actually figuring out how to make that initial prototype manufacturable and then manufacture at high volume such as reliable, low cost, consistent, doesn't break down all the time and that is 100x modern at least than the prototype.

好萊塢向你展示了 1% 的靈感和不足 —— 但忘記了真正弄清楚如何使初始原型可製造並進行大批量生產所付出的 99% 的汗水，例如可靠、低成本、一致、不會一直發生故障，並且至少比原型現代化 100 倍。

And then you have to get it delivered.

然後你必須把它送到目的地。

Yes, and you have all these regulations and especially regulators around the world, it's very difficult.

是的，而且有這麼多法規，尤其是世界各地的監管機構，這非常困難。

Great, thank you. The next question is also Optimus-related. When will Tesla start selling Optimus and what will be the price be?

太好了，謝謝。下一個問題也與擎天柱有關。特斯拉什麼時候開始販售 Optimus，價格是多少？

Well, the -- it may -- for this year, we expect to just close a little bit with Optimus being used internally at Tesla because we obviously can easily use several thousand humanoid robots at Tesla for, I think, the most boring, annoying tasks in the factory, like the tasks nobody wants to do, where we have to beg people to do this task. And then they -- it's like they're totally happy to do the boring dangerous repetitive testing no humans want to do.

嗯，可能吧，就今年而言，我們預計 Optimus 將在特斯拉內部得到應用，因為我們顯然可以輕鬆地在特斯拉使用數千個人形機器人來完成工廠裡最無聊、最煩人的任務，比如沒人願意做的任務，我們不得不懇求人們去做這些任務。然後他們——就好像他們非常樂意做人類不願意做的無聊、危險的重複測試。

And that's also actually some of the easiest use cases for us to have Optimus do things like load the hopper, like body line, if you like, transporting pieces of sheet metal to the -- which is robot, the robot welding line for the body and you just have to nonstop take things out of a -- from one fixture to another fixture. And it's a very boring job. That's the kind of thing that Optimus could do.

這實際上也是我們讓 Optimus 執行一些最簡單的用例，例如裝載料斗，例如車身生產線，將金屬板運送到機器人，即車身的機器人焊接生產線，您只需不停地將東西從一個夾具取出到另一個夾具。這是一份非常無聊的工作。這就是擎天柱能夠做到的事。

The guy who runs around all the wall studs and the pins.

那個在所有牆柱和牆釘周圍跑來跑去的人。

Yes. There's a ton of boring jobs, hideous jobs, slightly dangerous jobs that Optimus. So we expect to use Optimus for those tasks at our factories, and that will help us close loop for improvement this year. It really was the production version 2 which I think launches sometime next year. I'd like it to be the beginning of next year but maybe it's more like the middle of next year.

是的。擎天柱要做很多無聊的工作、可怕的工作、稍微危險的工作。因此，我們希望在工廠中使用 Optimus 來完成這些任務，這將有助於我們在今年完成改進。它確實是生產版本 2，我認為將於明年某個時候推出。我希望是明年年初，但也許更可能是明年年中。

And then we have to -- with a production line that is designed for -- on the order of 10,000 units a month versus 1,000 units a month. So when you're designing a production line for 1,000 units a month, it takes you a while to actually reach anywhere close to 1,000 units a month. For any given production output, it takes a while to actually reach its potential. The current line that we're designing is for roughly 1,000 units a month of Optimus robots. The next line would be for 10,000 units a month.

然後，我們必須擁有一條設計產量為每月 10,000 台而不是 1,000 台的生產線。因此，當您設計一條每月生產 1,000 台設備的生產線時，實際上需要一段時間才能達到每月接近 1,000 台設備的產量。對於任何給定的生產產出，都需要一段時間才能真正發揮其潛力。我們目前正在設計的生產線每月可生產約 1,000 台 Optimus 機器人。下一條生產線的月產量將為 10,000 台。

The line after that would be for 100,000 units a month. And I think probably with version 2, it is a very rough guess because there's so much uncertainty here, very rough guess that we start delivering Optimus robots to companies that are outside of Tesla in maybe the second half of next year, something like that. But like I said, this is such an exponential ramp that it will go from no one's receiving humanoid robots to these things like coming out like crazy.

此後的生產線每月產量將達到 10 萬台。我認為對於版本 2 來說，這是一個非常粗略的猜測，因為這裡存在太多的不確定性，粗略的猜測是我們可能會在明年下半年開始向特斯拉以外的公司交付 Optimus 機器人，諸如此類。但就像我說的，這是一個指數級的成長，從沒有人接收人形機器人到這些東西像瘋子一樣出現。

We can't build enough.

我們無法建造足夠的建築。

We're always going to be in a we can't enough situation. Demand will not be a problem even at a high price. And then I said like, once we start -- once we're at a steady state of above 1 million units a year, I think the production -- I'm confident at 1 million units a year, that the production cost of Optimus will be less than $20,000. If you compare the complexity of Optimus to the complexity of a car, so just the total mass and complexity of Optimus is much less than a car. So I would expect that at similar volumes to say the Model Y, which is over 1 million units a year, that you'd see Optimus be, I don't know, half the cost or something like that.

我們總是會處於一種力不從心的境地。即使價格很高，需求也不會成為問題。然後我說，一旦我們開始——一旦我們的產量達到每年 100 萬台以上的穩定狀態，我認為產量——我相信在每年 100 萬台的產量下，Optimus 的生產成本將低於 20,000 美元。如果將擎天柱的複雜性與汽車的複雜性進行比較，那麼擎天柱的總質量和複雜性就比汽車小得多。因此，我預計，在與 Model Y 類似的產量下（每年超過 100 萬輛），Optimus 的價格將是 Model Y 的一半左右。

What the price of Optimus is a different matter. The price of Optimus will be set by the market demand.

Optimus 的價格是多少則是另一回事。Optimus的價格將根據市場需求來決定。

Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, what is the status on mass production of the Tesla Semi? And how will it impact revenue and scale?

偉大的。非常感謝。下一個問題是，特斯拉 Semi 的量產進展如何？它將如何影響收入和規模？

I can take that one. So we just closed out the Semi factory roof of walls last week in Reno, a schedule, which is great with the weather. In Reno, you never know what's going to happen. But we're prepping for mechanical installation of all the equipment in the coming months. The first builds of the high volumes in design come late this year in 2025 and begin ramping early in 2026.

我可以接受那個。因此，我們上週剛在裡諾完成了半掛式廠房屋頂的施工，這個進度安排與天氣狀況相符。在裡諾，你永遠不知道會發生什麼事。但我們正在為未來幾個月所有設備的機械安裝做準備。首批大批量設計將於 2025 年底完成，並於 2026 年初開始量產。

But as we've said before, the Semi is a TCO, no-brainer. I think it's really similar to Optimus set by how much people and it has the total cost of ownership, it's much, much cheaper than any other transportation you could have. So at that point, when we're at scale, it will meaningfully contribute to Tesla's revenue. Might be difficult to say how much. you want to add

但正如我們之前所說，Semi 是一種 TCO，這是毫無疑問的。我認為它與 Optimus 非常相似，根據人數和總擁有成本來衡量，它比任何其他交通工具都要便宜得多。因此，當我們規模擴大時，它將對特斯拉的收入做出有意義的貢獻。可能很難說你想加多少

No. I mean, I do think it tells Semi, again with autonomy, is going to be incredibly valuable. That we actually have a shortage of truck drivers in America, that's one of the limiting factors on transport. And people are human, so they get tired and sometimes there's -- I have a lot of respect for truck drivers because it's a tough job. But because it's a tough job, there's not that many people that want to do it.

不。我的意思是，我確實認為它再次告訴 Semi，擁有自主權將非常有價值。事實上，美國缺少卡車司機，這是限制運輸的因素之一。人都是人，都會累，有時候──我非常尊敬卡車司機，因為這是一項艱苦的工作。但因為這是一份艱苦的工作，所以願意做的人並不多。

And there's actually fewer -- I believe, if my saying is correct, there are a few people entering truck driving as a profession than are not leaving it. So when you think of yes, exactly. So when you consider, okay, there's more people leaving truck driving as a profession than entering it, well, we're going to have a real logistics problem as time goes by. So autonomy will be very important to meet that need. So like, yes, it will -- I don't know.

但實際上，我相信，如果我的說法正確的話，從事卡車司機職業的人比離開這個職業的人少。所以當你想到「是」的時候，確實如此。因此，當您考慮到放棄卡車司機職業的人比從事該職業的人多時，那麼，隨著時間的推移，我們將面臨真正的物流問題。因此，自主性對於滿足這項需求非常重要。是的，它會的——我不知道。

It's a several billion a year opportunity, which I don't know in this context. Is that -- these days, does several billion a year matter? I think it does. It's not nothing. It's probably -- it might displace a $10 billion a year thing.

這是一個每年數十億美元的商機，在這種背景下我不知道。那麼——如今，每年幾十億美元還有意義嗎？我認為是的。這不是什麼事。它很可能——它可能會取代每年 100 億美元的項目。

That's $1 billion a month at some point probably. But it's -- all this is going to pale in comparison to Optimus. So yes, $1 billion a month is a lot but it's not it's going to be like 1% of Optimus.

某個時候，這個數字很可能是每月 10 億美元。但與擎天柱相比，這一切都顯得蒼白無力。所以，是的，每月 10 億美元是很多，但它不會像 Optimus 的 1% 那麼多。

Great. Thank you very much. We already covered the next question in opening remarks, so moving on. Is it expected that Tesla that will need to upgrade Hardware 3 vehicles? And if so, what is the timeline and expected impact to Tesla's CapEx? I think it referred to cost there.

偉大的。非常感謝。我們在開場白中已經討論過下一個問題，所以繼續。預計特斯拉將需要升級硬體3款車型嗎？如果是的話，時間表和對特斯拉資本支出的預期影響是什麼？我認為它指的是成本。

They're really asking the tough questions, aren't they?

他們確實問了棘手的問題，不是嗎？

I guess we haven't started working on Hardware 3 yet. We are still making software releases. We released the 12.6 release recently, which was like a baby V13, but it's a significant improvement compared to what they had previously. And finding there still larger motors in the smaller models. So we don't give up on hardware we're still working on it. Just the will trail the Hardware 4 releases.

我想我們還沒開始研究硬體 3。我們仍在發佈軟體。我們最近發布了 12.6 版本，它就像是 V13 的小型版本，但與之前的版本相比有了顯著的改進。並且發現較小型號中仍然有更大的馬達。所以我們不會放棄硬件，我們仍在努力。僅落後 Hardware 4 的發布。

Great. Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝。

I mean, I think the honest answer is that we're going to have to upgrade people's Hardware 3 computer for those that have bought full self-driving, and that is the most answer and that's going to be painful and difficult, but we'll get it done. Now I'm kind of glad that not that many people bought the FSD package.

我的意思是，我認為誠實的答案是，對於那些購買了全自動駕駛汽車的人來說，我們將不得不升級他們的硬體 3 計算機，這是最重要的答案，這將是痛苦和困難的，但我們會完成它。現在我有點慶幸沒有那麼多人購買 FSD 套件。

Thanks, Elon. The next question. Has Tesla given up on ramping their solar roof product?

謝謝，埃隆。下一個問題。特斯拉已經放棄推廣其太陽能屋頂產品了？

No, we -- Go ahead.

不，我們——繼續。

Yes, I can take it. Yes, solar roof is a core part of the residential product portfolio, and it still remains. It draws a lot of customer interest despite it being premium products. We've worked on multiple iterations of engineering to make the product easier to install and distribute by reducing SKU count. And more recently, rather than direct installation, we are focused on growth through our nationwide network of certified installers.

是的，我可以接受。是的，太陽能屋頂是住宅產品組合的核心部分，而且它仍然存在。儘管它是高端產品，但它仍然吸引了許多顧客的興趣。我們進行了多次工程迭代，透過減少 SKU 數量使產品更易於安裝和分發。最近，我們不再直接安裝，而是專注於透過全國認證安裝商網路成長。

And many of those, they've been installing solar for many years.

其中許多企業已經安裝太陽能多年。

That's actually turned out to be a much better way for the -- like it's just let the roof -- just supply products to the roofing industry. And especially when somebody's getting a new roof anyway or building a house from scratch, obviously, this is by far the most sufficient time to put in a solar roof as opposed to putting a solar roof on a house that -- where the roof still has 20 years of life. That's not economically senseful. But if it's a new house or the roof needs to be replaced anyway, then solar roof can make a lot of sense. And it is a premium product.

事實證明，這是一種更好的方法——就像只是讓屋頂——只向屋頂行業供應產品一樣。尤其是當有人要換新屋頂或從頭開始建造房屋時，顯然，這是安裝太陽能屋頂最充足的時機，而不是將太陽能屋頂安裝在屋頂還有 20 年使用壽命的房屋上。這在經濟上是沒有意義的。但如果是新房子或屋頂需要更換，那麼太陽能屋頂就很有意義。而且它是一款優質產品。

It's like Model S, Model X or something, like it's a premium product. I think it looks really cool. And you -- I mean, your house generates electricity. And if you combine it with the Tesla Powerwall battery, then you can be self-sufficient. So even if the grid turns off, even if the grid turns off for several days, your house still works, and your roof looks awesome.

它就像 Model S、Model X 之類的，就像高階產品。我認為它看起來真的很酷。而你——我的意思是，你的房子可以發電。如果將它與特斯拉 Powerwall 電池結合使用，那麼就可以自給自足。因此，即使電網關閉，即使電網關閉幾天，你的房子仍然可以使用，而且你的屋頂看起來很棒。

So it's like I recommend anyone who had -- who can afford it, get the Tesla Solar Roof and the Powerwall. Your life might depend on it. And just in terms of convenience, your kids are not going to yell at you because their computers don't work because the power went out and you can't charge your phone. Actually, it happens. Yes, you literally can't even call anyone because your phones out of juice.

因此，我建議任何有能力的人購買特斯拉太陽能屋頂和 Powerwall。您的生命可能就取決於它了。就方便而言，您的孩子不會因為斷電導致電腦無法工作或您無法為手機充電而對您大喊大叫。事實上，它確實發生了。是的，你確實無法給任何人打電話，因為你的手機沒電了。

Thank you very much. The next question was covered in opening remarks so we will skip that. And the last question from say.com. What technical breakthroughs will define V14 of FSD, given that V13 already covered to control?

非常感謝。下一個問題已在開場白中討論過，因此我們將跳過該問題。say.com 的最後一個問題是：鑑於 V13 已經涵蓋了控制，FSD 的 V14 將會有哪些技術突破？

Well, we've got to help -- how about further than to upward? We've been in sort of the nothing but nets situation, nothing but nets from photons to controls for a while now for just improving the neural nets. I guess we could get into some of the technical details to some degree. I have to say I continue to be amazed by just how effective order aggressive transformers are at solving a wide range of problems. I mean, Ashok, is there anything you'd like to add there without giving away the sort of family secrets?

好吧，我們必須幫忙——再往上一點怎麼樣？我們已經處於一個只有網路的境地，只有從光子到控制的網絡，只是為了改善神經網路。我想我們可以在某種程度上了解一些技術細節。我不得不說，我仍然對順序激進轉換器在解決各種問題方面的有效性感到驚訝。我的意思是，阿肖克，在不洩露家庭秘密的情況下，您還有什麼想補充的嗎？

Things report on next already. Continuing to scale the model size a lot. We scale a bunch in V13 but then there's still room to grow. So we're going to continue to scale the model size. We're going to increase the contact length even more.

事情已經報告下一步了。繼續大幅擴大模型尺寸。我們在 V13 中進行了大量的擴展，但仍有成長空間。因此我們將繼續擴大模型尺寸。我們將進一步增加接觸長度。

The memory sort of limited right now. We've increased our own top memory (inaudible) even minutes of context for driving. They're going to add audio emergency better. add like data of the tricky correlates that we get from the entire fleet, any interventions or any kind of like user intervention. We just the data set.

目前記憶體有點有限。我們增加了自己的頂級記憶（聽不清楚），甚至增加了幾分鐘的駕駛背景。他們將更好地添加音頻緊急情況。添加我們從整個車隊獲得的棘手相關數據、任何干預或任何類似的用戶幹預。我們只是數據集。

So scaling basically every aspect compute, at asset size, model size, model context and also the reinforcement learning objectives.

因此，基本上可以擴展計算的每個方面，包括資產規模、模型規模、模型環境以及強化學習目標。

All right. With that, we will move over to analyst questions. (Event Instructions) And the first question will be coming from Daniel Roeska from Bernstein. Daniel, please go ahead and unmute yourself.

好的。接下來，我們將轉向分析師提問。（活動說明）第一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的丹尼爾‧羅斯卡 (Daniel Roeska)。丹尼爾，請繼續並取消靜音。

It's Daniel from Bernstein. Elon, Tesla's share price clearly already includes quite a few of the anticipated benefits you talked about today, yet realizing what you call kind of difficult but achievable will take some time. What are you pushing the Tesla executive team to do differently now to accelerate the innovation in order to realize the value you described for the company?

我是伯恩斯坦的丹尼爾。伊隆，特斯拉的股價顯然已經包含了你今天談到的相當一部分預期收益，但要實現你所說的有點困難但可以實現的目標還需要一些時間。您現在正在推動特斯拉執行團隊採取哪些不同的措施來加速創新，從而實現您為公司所描述的價值？

Well, I mean, we're, I think, working on perfecting real-world AI and making rapid progress week-over-week, if not month -- certainly month-over-month, it's often week-over-week. I spend a lot of time with the Tesla AI team and the Tesla Optimus team. I mean, I go with the problem essentially, like not -- sometimes I can't talk to Tesla executive team and like, hey, we don't see you very often. That's because your stuff is working awesome. You're working really great.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為我們正在致力於完善現實世界的人工智慧，並且每週都在取得快速進展，如果不是每月的話——肯定是每月，通常是每週。我花了很多時間與特斯拉 AI 團隊和特斯拉 Optimus 團隊在一起。我的意思是，我本質上面臨的問題是，有時我無法與特斯拉執行團隊交談，就像，嘿，我們不常見到你們。那是因為你的東西運作得非常好。你工作得真棒。

Hadn't seen them very often because I go where the problem is. So at the problems like what's the greatest challenge that lies ahead. So obviously, there's -- there are many challenges with Optimus. It's a hard problem to solve. Main challenge is with the vehicle autonomy.

我沒有經常見到他們，因為我去了問題所在的地方。那麼，我們面臨的最大挑戰是什麼呢？顯然，Optimus 面臨許多挑戰。這是一個很難解決的問題。主要挑戰在於車輛的自主性。

But we're making products in both, yes.

但確實，我們在兩種領域都生產產品。

Okay. I mean, it sounds like you've got a conviction that the pieces you need, right, are in place. If we kind of go 12 months down the line and we look back and you had some of those, but maybe what are the kind of two or three KPIs that would tell you that you're on track and it's going the right way, and the pieces you put in place are the right pieces, right? That's kind of what I'm looking for. Or other way around, where would it be off most likely in your mind that you say, hey, I need to go back there, and I need to change something to enable the team better?

好的。我的意思是，聽起來你已經確信你需要的部分已經到位了。如果我們回顧 12 個月，你會發現你已經取得了一些成績，但也許有哪兩個或三個 KPI 可以告訴你，你已經走在正軌上，一切朝著正確的方向發展，你所採取的措施是正確的，對嗎？這正是我所尋找的。或者反過來說，你最有可能想到的是，你會說，嘿，我需要回到那裡，我需要改變一些東西來讓團隊變得更好？

SP1 Well, I mean, I think the predictions that I'm making here are going to be pretty accurate. And it's with the sometimes we loans always late. Well, actually, no, the problems of the media reports on when I'm late but never reports when I'm early. So sure, I'm optimistic but I'm not that optimistic. There are many cases in past where actually we've been early such as completion of the Shanghai factory or the factory completion has generally been ahead of schedule, not behind.

SP1 嗯，我的意思是，我認為我在這裡做出的預測會非常準確。有時我們的貸款總是逾期。嗯，其實不是，媒體的問題在於，他們報道我遲到的時間，卻從不報道我早到的時間。所以，我確實很樂觀，但我並沒有那麼樂觀。過去有很多情況我們實際上已經提前完成了，例如上海工廠的竣工，或者工廠的竣工通常都是提前完成，而不是落後。

So yes. So the -- but I'm very confident we'll have released unsupervised full self-driving, fully autonomous Teslas in Austin and several other cities in America by the end of this year, as probably everywhere in America next year, at everywhere in North America, at least. I think in terms of next year, our constraints, I think it's likely to be just regulatory. Like Europe really has, for example, Europe is a layer cake of regulations of bureaucracy, which that really needs to be addressed. This is a like America innovates, Europe regulates.

是的。所以——但我非常有信心，到今年年底，我們將在奧斯汀和美國其他幾個城市發布無人監督的全自動駕駛、完全自主的特斯拉汽車，很可能明年會在美國各地，至少在北美各地推出。我認為就明年而言，我們的限制可能只是監管方面的。例如，歐洲確實存在著層層官僚主義的監管，而這個問題確實需要解決。這就像美國進行創新，歐洲進行監管。

So guys, there's too many reps in the field. For example, for us, just to release unsupervised full self-driving in Europe, even though it works really well, we have to go through with the Netherlands, which is our primary regulatory authority. Then the Netherlands presents us to the EU in, I think, May. And there's like this EU country committee. We expect it to be approved at that time.

各位，這個領域的代表太多了。例如，對我們來說，僅僅為了在歐洲發布無人監督的全自動駕駛，儘管它運作得很好，但我們必須通過荷蘭的審核，因為荷蘭是我們的主要監管機構。然後，我想荷蘭會在五月將我們介紹給歐盟。還有這樣的歐盟國家委員會。我們預計屆時它將獲得批准。

There's nothing we can do to make that may happen sooner. In fact, nobody seems to do -- but I guess all the countries would have to somehow vote in some way to have it happen sooner than May. Otherwise, it wouldn't happen sooner than May. So the is unsupervised FSD a lot in Europe or like May next year, maybe? I don't know.

我們無法做任何事來讓這一天盡快到來。事實上，似乎沒有人這樣做——但我想所有國家都必須以某種方式投票，才能在 5 月之前實現這一目標。否則，這件事不會在五月之前發生。那麼，歐洲會大量出現無人監督的 FSD 嗎？或者可能在明年 5 月？我不知道。

Well, to find out when (inaudible). Sometimes it's a 12-month cadence, sometimes it's a 6-month cadence. Then China, which is a gigantic market, we do have some challenges because they weren't -- they currently allow us to transfer training video outside of China. And then government won't let us do training in China. So we're in a bit of a there.

好吧，想知道什麼時候（聽不清楚）。有時是 12 個月的節奏，有時是 6 個月的節奏。然後是中國，這是一個巨大的市場，我們確實面臨一些挑戰，因為他們目前不允許我們將培訓影片轉移到中國境外。然後政府不允許我們在中國接受訓練。所以我們有點陷入困境了。

It's like a quandary. So we were solving then is by literally looking at videos of streets in China that are available on the Internet to understand and then feeding that into our training so that publicly available video of street signs and traffic rules in China can be used for training and then also putting it in a very accurate simulator. And so it will train using SIM for bus lanes in China. Like bus lanes in China are one of our biggest challenges in making FSD work in China is their bus lanes are very complicated. And there's like literally like hours of the day that you're allowed to be there and not be there.

這就像是個兩難。因此，我們當時要解決的問題是透過查看網路上可用的中國街道影片來了解情況，然後將其輸入到我們的訓練中，以便可以使用公開的中國街道標誌和交通規則影片進行訓練，然後將其放入非常精確的模擬器中。因此它將使用 SIM 為中國的公車道進行訓練。就像中國的公車道一樣，我們在中國實施 FSD 所面臨的最大挑戰之一是他們的公車道非常複雜。一天中你可以待在那裡的時間確實有幾個小時，你可以不在那裡。

And then if you accidently go in at bus lane at the wrong time, you get an automatic ticket instantly. And so it was kind of a big deal, bus lanes in China. So we put that into our simulator train on that, the car has to know what time data is, redesign. We'll get this solved. But I think we'll have unsupervised FSD in almost every market this year, limited simply by regulatory issues, not technical capability.

如果您在錯誤的時間意外進入公車道，您會立即收到一張自動罰單。所以，在中國設立公車道是一件大事。因此，我們將其放入我們的模擬器火車中，汽車必須知道時間數據是什麼，重新設計。我們會解決這個問題。但我認為，今年我們幾乎會在每個市場推出無人監督的 FSD，這只是受到監管問題的限制，而不是技術能力的限制。

And then unsupervised FSD in the US this year, in many cities but nationwide next year. And hopefully, we have unsupervised FSD in most countries by the end of next year. That's my prediction with the best data that I have right now.

今年，美國許多城市將實行無人監管的 FSD，但明年將在全國推行。希望到明年年底，大多數國家都能實現無人監督的 FSD。這是我根據目前掌握的最佳數據所做的預測。

Great. The next question will come from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley. Adam, please feel free to unmute yourself.

偉大的。下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。亞當，請隨意取消靜音。

So Elon, you've said in the past about LiDAR, for EVs, that LIDAR is a crutch, a fool's errand. I think you even told me once, even if it was free, you'd say you wouldn't use it. Do you still feel that way?

所以埃隆，你過去曾說過，對於電動車來說，光達是一種拐杖，是愚蠢的差事。我想你甚至曾經告訴我，即使它是免費的，你也會說你不會使用它。你現在還有這種感覺嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Care to elaborate? Or just I have another question.

能詳細說明一下嗎？或者我只是有另一個問題。

Look, we even have a radar in the car and we turned it off.

看，我們的車上甚至有雷達，但我們把它關掉了。

I got it. People think you're crazy. But for...

我得到了它。人們認為你瘋了。但對於...

Obviously, humans drive without shooting lasers out of their eyes. I mean, unless you're superman. But like humans drive just with passive visual. Humans drive with eyes and a neural net and a bran neural net sort of biological -- so the digital equivalent of eyes and a brain are cameras and digital neural mets or AI. So that's the entire road system was designed for passive optical neural nets.

顯然，人類開車時不會從眼睛射出雷射。我的意思是，除非你是超人。但就像人類一樣，僅靠被動視覺駕駛。人類透過眼睛、神經網路和類似生物的大腦神經網路來駕駛——因此，眼睛和大腦的數位等價物是攝影機和數位神經網路或人工智慧。所以整個道路系統都是為無源光學神經網路設計的。

As to how the whole real system which is not designed and what everyone is expecting, that's how we expect other cars to behave. So therefore, that is very obviously a solution for full self-driving as a generalized. But the generalized solution for full self-driving as opposed to the very specific neighborhood by neighborhood solution, which is to maintain, which is what our competitors are doing, yes, yes.

至於整個實際系統是如何設計的以及每個人都期待什麼，這就是我們期望其他汽車如何表現的。因此，這顯然是實現全自動駕駛的通用解決方案。但是，完全自動駕駛的通用解決方案與針對各個社區的具體解決方案不同，後者是為了維護，而這正是我們的競爭對手正在做的事情，是的，是的。

I mean, LiDAR doesn't work in the fall, guys?

我的意思是，秋天的時候 LiDAR 不起作用，夥計們？

LiDAR has a lot of issues. I don't absolutely like SpaceX dragging docs with the space station usually LIDAR, that a program that I personally spearheaded. I don't have some fundamental bizarre just like LiDAR, it's simply the wrong solution for driving cars on roads.

LiDAR 存在著許多問題。我絕對不喜歡 SpaceX 將文件與太空站（通常是光達）一起拖拽，這是我親自牽頭的項目。我並不認為 LiDAR 等技術有什麼根本性的奇怪之處，它只是道路上駕駛汽車的錯誤解決方案。

Right. You understand how LiDAR works, I guess.

正確的。我想您已經了解 LiDAR 的工作原理了。

Literally designed and built our own red LiDAR. I oversaw the project, the engineering thing. It was my intention to use LiDAR Dragon. And I always saw that engineering project directly. So like we literally designed and made a LiDAR space station. I thought it was the right solution for cars, would do that, but it isn't.

我們確實設計並建造了自己的紅色光達。我負責監督這個專案和工程事宜。我本來打算使用 LiDAR Dragon。而且我總是直接看到那個工程項目。所以就像我們確實設計並製造了一個 LiDAR 太空站。我以為這是針對汽車的正確解決方案，可以做到這一點，但事實並非如此。

Got you. All right. Just as a follow-up. At CES, you said -- I'm paraphrasing but any AI will be able to do any cognitive task not involving atoms within the next three or four years. And that would imply, Elon, that before the end of President Trump's term in office, that AI would be moving pretty damn quickly into the physical world, the world of photons and ATMs.

明白了。好的。只是作為後續行動。在 CES 上，您說過——我只是轉述一下，但任何人工智慧在未來三到四年內都能夠完成任何不涉及原子的認知任務。埃隆，這意味著在川普總統任期結束之前，人工智慧將非常迅速地進入物理世界，即光子和自動櫃員機的世界。

And I'm thinking, given your work with the administration, how confident are you that the US has -- will have the manufacturing and supply base to make good on your excitement about physical AI by the end of -- by latter this decade? We seem pretty volatile right now. I've seen you tweeting about or sorry, X-ing, excuse me, Elon, about China -- Freudian slip, about China having like making more drones in a day than the US makes in a year and all the entanglement of the supply.

我在想，鑑於您在政府部門的工作，您對美國在本世紀末或本世紀中後期擁有製造和供應基礎來實現您對物理人工智慧的興奮有多大信心？我們現在看起來相當不穩定。我看到你在推特上發了關於中國的推文，或者抱歉，X-ing，對不起，埃隆，關於中國——弗洛伊德式的失誤，關於中國一天生產的無人機比美國一年生產的還多，以及所有與供應相關的糾纏。

So what has to happen in the US. to make that possible? What's your message? And what can you do about it and what's relevant for Tesla shareholders?

那麼美國需要做些什麼才能實現這一目標呢？您的留言是什麼？您能對此做些什麼？這對特斯拉股東來說又有什麼意義呢？

Well, at Tesla, obviously, we think manufacturing is cool. SpaceX, we think manufacturing is cool. But in general, for talented Americans, they need to be -- beyond my companies, me and my teams here. In general, we need to make manufacturing cool again in America. And like I honestly think people should move from like law and finance into manufacturing. That's not.

嗯，在特斯拉，我們顯然認為製造業很酷。SpaceX，我們認為製造業很酷。但總的來說，對於有才華的美國人來說，他們需要——超越我的公司、我和我的團隊。總的來說，我們需要讓美國製造業再次變得酷起來。我真誠地認為人們應該從法律和金融業轉向製造業。事實並非如此。

We have too many both complement and the criticism. We have too much talent in law and finance in America, and there should be more of that talent in manufacturing. So I mean, at Tesla, we're making sure that we can continue to manufacture our stuff even in the event of geopolitical tensions rising to very high levels.

我們有太多的讚美和批評。美國在法律和金融領域有太多人才，製造業也應該有更多這樣的人才。所以我的意思是，在特斯拉，我們確保即使地緣政治緊張局勢升級到非常高的水平，我們也能繼續生產我們的產品。

Great. The next question will come from Pierre Ferragu at New Street. Pierre, please feel free to unmute yourself.

偉大的。下一個問題來自新街的皮埃爾費拉古 (Pierre Ferragu)。皮埃爾，請隨意取消靜音。

So I have a question, Elon, on deploying like robotaxis in June in Austin, so that's great news. And I was wondering if it means I can drive down to Austin in June and try unsupervised by myself with my car or it's going to be more like your fleet testing it?

所以我有一個問題，埃隆，關於六月在奧斯汀部署類似機器人出租車的事情，這是個好消息。我想知道這是否意味著我可以在六月開車去奧斯汀，在無人監督的情況下親自駕駛我的車，或者這更像是你們的車隊測試？

It will be our fleet testing it. That's how sort of toe in the water. Would we very carefully to make sure it's not something we missed. But it will be right autonomous for in Austin in June, and then as shortly as possible, other cities in America. And I expect us to be operating unsupervised activity with our internal fleet in several cities by the end of the year.

我們的艦隊將對其進行測試。這就是試水的方式。我們會非常小心，以確保我們沒有錯過任何東西。但它將於六月在奧斯汀正式推出，然後儘快在美國其他城市推出。我預計到今年年底，我們的內部車隊將在幾個城市進行無人監管的活動。

Then as probably next year when people are able to add or subtract their car from the fleet. So kind of like Airbnb, where you can sort of add or subtract your house or your guestroom, add it to the Airbnb or don't add it to the Airbnb inventory. If you're traveling for a month, you can -- or whatever as maybe you can let other people use your house. And then -- anyway, so that's probably next year because we want to just make sure we find out any kinks. And a lot of it -- it's not like we're not splitting atoms here.

那麼很可能明年人們就可以在車隊中增加或減少汽車了。這有點像 Airbnb，您可以在其中添加或減少您的房子或客房，將其添加到 Airbnb 或不將其添加到 Airbnb 庫存中。如果您要旅行一個月，您可以—或者無論如何，也許您可以讓其他人使用您的房子。然後——無論如何，這可能是明年，因為我們只想確保發現任何問題。其中很多——並不是說我們沒有在這裡分裂原子。

It's just a bunch of work that needs to be done to make sure the whole thing works, especially that people can order the car, it comes to the right spot, does exactly the right thing, all the payment systems work, the billing works. Yes.

需要做大量的工作來確保整個系統正常運行，特別是人們可以訂購汽車，汽車可以到達正確的地點，做正確的事情，所有支付系統都可以正常運行，計費系統也可以正常運行。是的。

But then so my follow-up question would be, I have a Tesla, I have FSD, and I have to keep my eyes on the road all the time. It's super boring because I don't really need to intervene anymore. And the really annoying thing is that I can't just check my e-mails.

但我的後續問題是，我有一輛特斯拉，我有 FSD，我必須隨時注意路況。這非常無聊，因為我真的不需要再介入了。真正令人惱火的是，我無法查看我的電子郵件。

And so are you working also on introducing like a kind of like free unsupervised where I could be eyes off, and I would be able to check my e-mail and would just need to, with a five-second notice, have to go back and keep an eye on what's happening? Or is that something you're working on as well because it feels so close with that I wonder if it's something we could expect for this year. It's a very selfish question I ask for myself, to be honest.

那麼，您是否也在致力於引入一種類似自由無人監督的環境，讓我可以不用注視，可以查看電子郵件，並且只需要提前五秒鐘通知，就可以回去關注正在發生的事情？或者這也是您正在做的事情，因為它感覺如此接近，我想知道這是否是我們今年可以期待的事情。說實話，這是我問自己的一個很自私的問題。

Yes. We need to be very confident that the probability of injury is low before we are able to check their e-mail and text messages. In fact, right now, we're in this situation, which may have encountered yourself where people will actually go to manual driving to check their text messages, so the computer doesn't help them and then go -- then put it back on autonomous mode once they've checked the text messages, which is honestly less safe.

是的。我們需要非常確信受傷的可能性很低，然後才能檢查他們的電子郵件和簡訊。事實上，現在我們面臨的情況是，你可能也遇到過這種情況，人們實際上會手動駕駛來查看短信，所以計算機不會幫助他們，然後在他們查看完短信後將其恢復到自動模式，這確實不太安全。

Significantly less safe.

安全性明顯降低。

Significantly less safe than just letting people check their text once in a while without the computer yelling at them. But we just want to be cautious about the -- we're in the sort of neither here nor there. But just for -- I mean, I think it's not for many months longer. But yes, we're in this perverse situation where we will turn the car off autopilot puts them check the text messages while steering the car with their knee and not looking out the window.

這比讓人們偶爾檢查一下他們的文字而電腦不會對他們大喊大叫要安全得多。但我們只是想保持謹慎——我們現在處於一種既不在這裡也不在那裡的狀態。但只是——我的意思是，我認為這不會持續太久。但是的，我們正處於這種不正常的境地，我們會關閉汽車的自動駕駛儀，讓他們一邊用膝蓋操縱汽車，一邊查看短信，而不是看窗外。

And it's like Elon said, right? If you have any problems when the system and when people are not looking, that is dangerous. And that's what we are trying to avoid. The capability is getting there but it's not fully there. That's why he was using the term dipping our toe in the water then getting comfortable.

就像伊隆說的那樣，對吧？如果系統和人們沒有註意的時候出現任何問題，那就很危險了。而這正是我們試圖避免的。能力正在逐漸增強，但尚未完全實現。這就是為什麼他使用“先試水，然後適應”這個詞。

Anyway, it's not far off, but we want to prove to ourselves prove ourselves and obviously prove to regulators that the car is unequivocally safer in autonomous mode than not. And that's -- we're not far off, so this is like low single-digit months.

無論如何，這並不遙遠，但我們想向自己證明，顯然也向監管機構證明，汽車在自動駕駛模式下絕對比非自動駕駛模式下更安全。那是——我們相差不遠了，所以這就像低個位數的月份。

Just to the safety aspect, we did publish our vehicle safety report today. And in Q4, there was 1 crash for every 5.9 million miles driven compared to a crash every 700,000 miles without (inaudible)

就安全方面而言，我們今天確實發布了車輛安全報告。第四季度，每行駛 590 萬英里就會發生一次事故，而沒有（聽不清楚）

We're getting to the point where it's in order of magnitude better.

我們正在達到一個數量級更好的水平。

Yes, like 8.5x safer.

是的，安全 8.5 倍。

That's amazing. Great. And our last question will be coming from Dan Levy at Barclays. Dan, feel free to unmute yourself.

太棒了。偉大的。我們的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Dan Levy。丹，請隨意取消靜音。

Elon, you've talked about the need for proliferation of sustainable transport and is part of the sort of broader push to sustainable energy. I know we've heard a lot about President Trump's plans to reverse the EV mandate. And I think there's a view that given regulation is a driver of EV uptake, this could slow EV uptake in the US. So what would be your view on the right policy in the US, given your comments in the past that the need to push for sustainable transport?

埃隆，您談到了永續交通的普及必要性，這是推動永續能源發展的更廣泛舉措的一部分。我知道我們已經聽到了很多關於川普總統撤銷電動車強制令的計劃。我認為，有一種觀點認為，鑑於監管是推動電動車普及的因素，這可能會減緩美國電動車的普及速度。那麼，鑑於您過去關於推動永續交通的必要性的言論，您認為美國的正確政策是什麼？

At this point, I think that sustainable transport is inevitable. I'm highly confident all transport will be autonomous electric, including aircraft, and that it's simply -- it can be stopped any more than one could have stopped the advent of the external combustion engine, steam engine or one could have stopped the advent of the internal combustion engine.

從這一點來看，我認為永續交通是不可避免的。我非常有信心，所有交通工具都將電動化，包括飛機，而且它就像無法阻止外燃機、蒸汽機的出現，也無法阻止內燃機的出現一樣，是無法停止的。

Like even if you've been the biggest advocate on Earth, like of the way on these newfangled car automobiles, you can't stop the advent of automobile. It's going to happen. And you can't stop the advent of electric cars. It's going to happen. The other thing holding back electric cars was range and that is a solved problem.

即使你是地球上這些新奇汽車的最大倡導者，你也無法阻止汽車的出現。它將會發生。你也無法阻止電動車的出現。它將會發生。阻礙電動車發展的另一個因素是續航里程，而這個問題已經解決。

Great. And then as a follow-up, in the past, Elon, you had made a comment that you'd be willing to sell cars at effectively no margin to get the cars out there. And there's a comment in the release today of the rate of acceleration of the autonomy efforts does impact volume growth. So perhaps you could just talk about with your efforts on FSD, how we should think about your desire to put more vehicles out in the market to take advantage of your tech advances?

偉大的。然後作為後續問題，埃隆，過去你曾說過，為了讓汽車暢銷，你願意以實際上零利潤的價格出售汽車。今天發布的新聞稿中有一條評論稱，自主化進程的加速確實會影響產量的成長。那麼，也許您可以談談您在 FSD 方面的努力，我們應該如何看待您希望在市場上推出更多汽車以利用您的技術進步的願望？

So I'm not sure I understand the question. We have a lot of cars. I mean, you've got millions of cars out there.

所以我不確定我是否理解了這個問題。我們有很多車。我的意思是，那裡有數百萬輛汽車。

So is there a question, Dan, that how do we marry our future growth aspects with FSD?

那麼，丹，有一個問題，我們如何將未來的成長面向與 FSD 結合？

Go ahead, unmute yourself, Dan.

來吧，丹，取消靜音。

Yes. More so just how much more aggressively you would be willing to sell your cars versus in light of your improvements on FSD?

是的。更確切地說，考慮到您在 FSD 方面的改進，您願意以多大程度的積極性出售您的汽車？

Well, right now, the constraint we're trying to solve is battery production as opposed to demand. So we're -- and now Q1, we've got this massive factory retooling for the new Model Y, for example. That obviously has a short-term impact on output. But the problem we were saying with, in fact, we're talking that the executive team and I were talking about just before this call was we've got to figure out how to increase total gigawatt hours of battery production this year one way or another. That's the constraint on our output.

嗯，現在，我們試圖解決的限制是電池生產而不是需求。因此，例如，現在在第一季度，我們為新 Model Y 進行了大規模的工廠改造。這顯然會對產出產生短期影響。但我們所說的問題，事實上，我和執行團隊在這次電話會議之前就討論過，我們必須想辦法以某種方式增加今年電池的總產量。這就是我們產出的限制。

Great. All right. And with that, I think we are all done for today. So thanks, everyone, so much for all your questions. We look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much, and goodbye.

偉大的。好的。我想，今天的工作就到此結束了。非常感謝大家提出的所有問題。我們期待下個季度與您交談。非常感謝，再見。