特斯拉 (TSLA) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

(technical difficulty) Tesla's First Quarter 2024 Q&A Webcast. My name is Martin Viecha, VP of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Vaibhav Taneja and a number of other executives. Our Q1 results were announced at about 3:00 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

（技術難度）特斯拉2024年第一季問答網路直播。我是投資者關係副總裁馬丁·維查 (Martin Viecha)，今天加入我的還有 Elon Musk、瓦伊巴夫·塔內賈 (Vaibhav Taneja) 和其他一些高管。我們的第一季業績於下午 3:00 左右公佈。我們在與此網路廣播相同的連結上發布了更新平台中的中部時間。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events and results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件和結果可能會存在重大差異。

(Operator Instructions) But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

（操作員說明）但在我們開始問答之前，Elon 有一些開場白。埃隆？

Thanks, Martin. So to recap, in Q1, we navigated several unforeseen challenges as well as the ramp of the updated Model 3 in Fremont. There was -- as we all have seen, the EV adoption rate globally is under pressure and a lot of other order manufacturers are pulling back on EVs and pursuing plug-in hybrids instead. We believe this is not the right strategy and electric vehicles will ultimately dominate the market.

謝謝，馬丁。回顧一下，在第一季度，我們克服了一些不可預見的挑戰，並在弗里蒙特完成了更新的 Model 3 的升級。正如我們大家所看到的，全球電動車的採用率面臨壓力，許多其他訂單製造商正在減少電動車的生產，轉而追求插電式混合動力車。我們認為這不是正確的策略，電動車最終將主導市場。

Despite these challenges, the Tesla team did a great job executing in a tough environment and energy storage deployments of Megapack, in particular, reached an all-time high in Q1, leading to record profitability for the energy business. And that looks likely to continue to increase in the quarters and years ahead. It will increase. We actually know that it will, so significantly faster than the car business as we expected. We also continue to expand our AI training capacity in Q1, more than doubling our training compute sequentially.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，特斯拉團隊在嚴峻的環境中仍然表現出色，特別是 Megapack 的儲能部署在第一季度達到了歷史新高，導致能源業務的盈利能力創下歷史新高。而且這一數字在未來幾季和幾年裡可能會繼續增加。它會增加。我們實際上知道它會比我們預期的汽車業務快得多。我們也在第一季繼續擴大我們的人工智慧訓練能力，使我們的訓練運算量連續增加一倍以上。

In terms of the new product road map, there's been a lot of talk about our upcoming vehicle line in the next -- in the past several weeks. We've updated our future of vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models ahead. I previously mentioned start of production in the second half of 2025. So we expect it to be more like the early 2025, if not late this year.

就新產品路線圖而言，在過去的幾周里，人們對我們未來即將推出的車輛系列進行了許多討論。我們更新了未來的車輛陣容，以加快新車型的推出。我之前提到過將於 2025 年下半年開始生產。

These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will use aspects of the next-generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and we'll be able to produce on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup. So it's not contingent upon any new factory or massive new production line. It will be made on our current production lines much more efficiently. And we think this should allow us to get to over 3 million vehicles of capacity when realized to the full extent.

這些新車，包括更實惠的車型，將使用下一代平台的各個方面以及我們當前平台的各個方面，我們將能夠在與當前車輛系列相同的生產線上進行生產。因此，這並不取決於任何新工廠或大規模的新生產線。它將在我們現有的生產線上更有效率地生產。我們認為，當全面實現時，我們的產能將超過 300 萬輛。

Regarding FSD V12, which is the pure AI-based self-driving, if you haven't experienced this, I strongly urge you to try it out. It's profound and the rate of improvement is rapid. And we've now turned that on for all cars, with the cameras and inference computer, everything from Hardware 3 on, in North America. So it's been pushed out to, I think, around 1.8 million vehicles, and we're seeing about half of people use it so far and that percentage is increasing with each passing week. So we now have over 300 billion miles that have been driven with FSD V12.

至於FSD V12，這是純AI自動駕駛，如果你還沒體驗過，我強烈建議你試試看。它意義深遠，進步速度很快。現在，我們已經在北美為所有汽車啟用了這項功能，包括攝影機和推理計算機，以及從硬體 3 開始的所有內容。因此，我認為，它已被推廣到大約 180 萬輛汽車，到目前為止，我們看到大約一半的人在使用它，而且這個比例每週都在增加。現在，我們使用 FSD V12 行駛的里程數已超過 3000 億英里。

Since the launch of Full Self-Driving -- Supervised Full Self-Driving, it's become very clear that the vision-based approach with end-to-end neural networks is the right solution for scalable autonomy. And it's really how humans drive. Our entire road network is designed for biological neural nets and eyes. So naturally, cameras and digital neural nets are the solution to our current road system. To make it more accessible, we've reduced the subscription price to $99 a month, so it's easy to try out. And as we've announced, we will be showcasing our purpose-built robotaxi or Cybercab in August.

自從「完全自動駕駛——有監督的完全自動駕駛」推出以來，很明顯，基於視覺的端到端神經網路方法是可擴展自主的正確解決方案。這確實是人類駕駛的方式。我們的整個道路網絡是為生物神經網路和眼睛而設計的。因此，攝影機和數位神經網路自然是我們當前道路系統的解決方案。為了使其更易於使用，我們已將訂閱價格降至每月 99 美元，因此很容易試用。正如我們所宣布的，我們將在八月展示我們的專用機器人出租車或 Cyber​​cab。

Regarding AI compute. Over the past few months, we've been actively working on expanding Tesla's core AI infrastructure. For a while there, we were training-constrained in our progress. We are, at this point, no longer training-constrained, and so we're making rapid progress.

關於人工智慧計算。在過去的幾個月裡，我們一直在積極致力於擴展特斯拉的核心人工智慧基礎設施。有一段時間，我們的進步受到訓練的限制。此時，我們不再受到培訓限制，因此我們正在取得快速進展。

We've installed and commissioned, meaning they're actually working, 35,000 H100 computers or GPUs. GPU is a wrong word, they need a new word. I always feel like a [wentz] when I say GPU because it's not. GPU stands -- G stands for graphics. Roughly 35,000 H100S are active, and we expect that to be probably 85,000 or thereabouts by the end of this year in training, just for training. We are making sure that we're being as efficient as possible in our training. It's not just about the number of H100s, but how efficiently they're used.

我們已經安裝並調試了 35,000 台 H100 電腦或 GPU，這意味著它們實際上正在運行。 GPU 是一個錯誤的詞，他們需要一個新詞。當我說 GPU 時，我總是感覺自己像個 [wentz]，因為它不是。 GPU 代表－G 代表圖形。大約有 35,000 架 H100S 處於活躍狀態，我們預計到今年年底，在訓練中的數量可能會達到 85,000 架左右，僅用於訓練。我們確保我們的培訓盡可能有效率。這不僅與 H100 的數量有關，還與它們的使用效率有關。

So in conclusion, we're super excited about our autonomy road map. I think it should be obvious to anyone who's driving V12 in a Tesla that it is only a matter of time before we exceed the reliability of humans and we've not much time with that. And we're really headed for an electric vehicle and autonomous future. And I go back to something I said several years ago that in the future, gasoline cars that are not autonomous will be like riding a horse and using a [flip boat]. And that will become very obvious in hindsight. We continue to make the necessary investments that will drive growth and profits for Tesla in the future, and I wanted to thank the Tesla team for incredible execution during this period and look forward to everything that we have planned ahead. Thanks.

總之，我們對我們的自主路線圖感到非常興奮。我認為對於任何駕駛 V12 特斯拉汽車的人來說，顯而易見，我們超越人類的可靠性只是時間問題，而我們沒有太多時間做到這一點。我們確實正在走向電動車和自動駕駛的未來。我回到幾年前說過的話，未來，非自動駕駛的汽油車將就像騎馬和使用[翻轉船]。事後看來，這一點將會變得非常明顯。我們將繼續進行必要的投資，以推動特斯拉未來的成長和利潤，我要感謝特斯拉團隊在此期間令人難以置信的執行力，並期待我們未來計劃的一切。謝謝。

Thank you very much, and Vaibhav has some comments as well.

非常感謝您，Vaibhav 也有一些評論。

It's important to acknowledge what Elon said, from our auto business perspective, we did see a decline in revenues quarter-over-quarter and these were primarily because of seasonality, uncertain macroeconomic environment and many other reasons, which Elon had mentioned earlier. Auto margins declined from 18.9% to 18.5%, excluding the impact of Cybertruck. The impact of pricing actions was largely offset by reductions in per unit costs and the recognition of revenue from Autopark feature for certain vehicles in the U.S. that previously did not have that functionality.

重要的是要承認埃隆所說的，從我們的汽車業務的角度來看，我們確實看到收入環比下降，這主要是由於埃隆之前提到的季節性、不確定的宏觀經濟環境和許多其他原因。排除 Cyber​​truck 的影響，汽車利潤率從 18.9% 下降至 18.5%。定價行動的影響在很大程度上被單位成本的降低以及美國某些以前不具備該功能的車輛的 Autopark 功能收入的確認所抵消。

Additionally, while we did experience higher cost due to the ramp of Model 3 in Fremont and disruptions in Berlin, these costs were largely offset by cost reduction initiatives. In fact, if we exclude Cybertruck and Fremont Model 3 ramp costs, the revenue from Autopark, auto margins improved slightly. Currently, normalized Model Y cost per vehicle in Austin and Berlin are already very close to that of Fremont. Our ability to reduce costs without sacrificing on quality was due to the amazing efforts of the team in executing Tesla's relentless pursuit of efficiency across the business.

此外，雖然由於 Model 3 在弗里蒙特的產能提升和柏林的供應中斷，我們確實經歷了更高的成本，但這些成本在很大程度上被成本削減措施所抵消。事實上，如果我們排除 Cyber​​truck 和 Fremont Model 3 的坡道成本、Autopark 的收入，汽車利潤率略有提高。目前，奧斯汀和柏林的 Model Y 每輛車標準化成本已經非常接近弗里蒙特。我們能夠在不犧牲品質的情況下降低成本，這要歸功於團隊在執行特斯拉對整個業務效率的不懈追求方面所做出的驚人努力。

We've also witnessed that as other OEMs are pulling back on their investments in EV, there is increasing appetite for credits, and that means a steady stream of revenue for us. Obviously, seeing others pull back from EV is not the future we want. We would prefer that the whole industry went all in. On the demand front, we've undertaken a variety of initiatives, including lowering the price of both the purchase and subscription options for FSD, launching extremely attractive leasing specials for the Model 3 in the U.S. for $299 a month and offering attractive financing options in certain markets. We believe that our awareness activities, paired with attractive financing, will go a long way in expanding our reach and driving demand for our products.

我們也看到，隨著其他原始設備製造商撤回對電動車的投資，對信貸的興趣不斷增加，這對我們來說意味著穩定的收入來源。顯然，看到其他人退出電動車並不是我們想要的未來。我們希望整個行業都全力以赴。美元，並在某些市場提供有吸引力的融資選擇。我們相信，我們的宣傳活動，加上有吸引力的融資，將在擴大我們的影響力和推動對我們產品的需求方面發揮很大作用。

Our Energy business continues to make meaningful progress, with margins reaching a record of 24.6%. We expect the energy storage deployments for 2024 to grow at least 75% higher from 2023. And accordingly, this business will begin contributing significantly to our overall profitability.

我們的能源業務持續取得有意義的進展，利潤率達到創紀錄的 24.6%。我們預計 2024 年的儲能部署將比 2023 年成長至少 75%。

Note that there is a bit of lumpiness in our storage deployments due to a variety of factors that are outside of our control, so deployments may fluctuate quarter-over-quarter. On the operating expense front, we saw a sequential increase from our AI initiatives, continued investment in future projects, marketing and other activities. We had negative free cash flow of $2.5 billion in the first quarter. The primary driver of this was an increase in inventory from a mismatch between builds and deliveries as discussed before, and our elevated spend on CapEx across various initiatives, including AI compute.

請注意，由於各種我們無法控制的因素，我們的儲存部署存在一些波動，因此部署可能會按季度波動。在營運費用方面，我們看到人工智慧計劃、對未來項目、行銷和其他活動的持續投資帶來了連續成長。第一季我們的自由現金流為負 25 億美元。其主要驅動因素是如前所述，由於構建和交付之間的不匹配而導致庫存增加，以及我們在各種計劃（包括人工智慧計算）上的資本支出增加。

We expect the inventory build to reverse in the second quarter and free cash flow to return to positive again. As we prepare the company for the next phase of growth, we had to make the hard but necessary decision to reduce our head count by over 10%. The savings generated are expected to be well in excess of $1 billion on an annual run rate basis. We are also getting hyper focused on CapEx efficiency and utilizing our installed capacity in a more efficient manner.

我們預計庫存成長將在第二季逆轉，自由現金流將再次恢復正值。當我們為公司下一階段的成長做好準備時，我們必須做出艱難但必要的決定，將員工人數減少 10% 以上。以年運行率計算，預計節省的費用將遠遠超過 10 億美元。我們也非常關注資本支出效率並以更有效的方式利用我們的裝置容量。

The savings from these initiatives, including our cost reductions will help improve our overall profitability and ultimately enable us to increase the scale of our investments in AI. In conclusion, the future is extremely bright and the journey to get there while challenging will be extremely rewarding. Once again, I would like to thank the whole Tesla team for delivering great results. And we can open it up to Q&A.

這些措施帶來的節省，包括成本的降低，將有助於提高我們的整體獲利能力，並最終使我們能夠擴大人工智慧的投資規模。總之，未來是極其光明的，在充滿挑戰的同時實現這一目標的旅程將是非常有價值的。我要再次感謝整個特斯拉團隊所取得的出色成果。我們可以將其開放給問答。

Okay. Let's start with investor Q&A. The first question is, what is the status of 4680? What is the current output? Lars?

好的。讓我們從投資者問答開始。第一個問題是，4680的現況如何？目前的輸出是多少？拉爾斯？

Sure. 4680 production increased about 18%, 20% over -- from Q4, reaching greater than 1,000 a week for Cybertruck, which is about 7 gigawatt hours per year as we posted on X. We expect to stay ahead of the Cybertruck ramp with the cell production throughout Q2 as we ramp the third and 4 lines in Phase 1, while maintaining multiple weeks of cell inventory to make sure we're ahead of the ramp. Because we're ramping, COGS continues to drop rapidly week-over-week, driven by yield improvements throughout the lines and production volume increases. So our goal, and we expect to do this, is to beat supplier cost of nickel-based cells by the end of the year.

當然。 4680 產量較第四季度增長約18%，較第四季度增長20%，Cyber​​truck 每週產量超過1,000 輛，正如我們在X 上發布的，每年約7 吉瓦時。領先於Cyber​​truck 的產能成長隨著我們在第一階段增加第三條和第四條生產線，我們在整個第二季度提高了產量，同時維持了數週的電池庫存，以確保我們領先於產量增加。由於我們正在提高產量，在整個生產線產量提高和產量增加的推動下，銷貨成本繼續逐週快速下降。因此，我們的目標，也是我們期望做到的，是在今年年底前擊敗鎳基電池的供應商成本。

Thank you. The second question is on Optimus. So what is the current status of Optimus? Are they currently performing any factory tasks? When do you expect to start mass production?

謝謝。第二個問題是關於擎天柱的。那麼擎天柱目前的狀況如何呢？他們目前正在執行任何工廠任務嗎？預計什麼時候開始量產？

We are able to do simple factory tasks or at least, I should say, factory tasks in the lab. In terms of actually -- we do think we will have Optimus in limited production in the factory -- in natural factory itself, doing useful tasks before the end of this year. And then I think we may be able to sell it externally by the end of next year. These are just guesses.

我們能夠完成簡單的工廠任務，或者至少，我應該說，在實驗室中完成工廠任務。實際上，我們確實認為我們將在工廠中有限生產 Optimus，在自然工廠本身中，在今年年底之前完成有用的任務。然後我想我們也許可以在明年年底之前對外出售它。這些只是猜測。

As I've said before, I think Optimus will be more valuable than everything else combined. Because if you've got a sentient humanoid robots that is able to navigate reality and do tasks at request, there is no meaningful limit to the size of the economy. So that's what's going to happen. And I think Tesla is best positioned of any humanoid robot maker to be able to reach volume production with efficient inference on the robot itself.

正如我之前所說，我認為擎天柱將比其他所有東西加起來更有價值。因為如果你擁有一個有感知能力的人形機器人，能夠駕馭現實並根據要求執行任務，那麼經濟規模就沒有任何有意義的限制。這就是將會發生的事情。我認為特斯拉在所有人形機器人製造商中處於最佳位置，能夠透過對機器人本身的有效推理來實現大量生產。

I mean this, perhaps, is a point that is worth emphasizing. Tesla's AI inference efficiency is vastly better than anyone -- any other company. There's no company even close to the inference efficiency of Tesla. We've had to do that because we were constrained by the inference hardware in the car. We don't have a choice. But that will pay dividends in many ways.

我的意思是，這也許是值得強調的一點。特斯拉的人工智慧推理效率比其他公司都要好得多。沒有一家公司的推理效率能與特斯拉相提並論。我們不得不這樣做，因為我們受到汽車中推理硬體的限制。我們別無選擇。但這會在很多方面帶來好處。

Thank you. The third question is, what is the assessment of the pathway towards regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD in the U.S.? And how should we think about the appropriate safety threshold compared to human drivers?

謝謝。第三個問題是，美國監理機關對無監督FSD的審批途徑有何評估？與人類駕駛員相比，我們應該如何考慮適當的安全閾值？

I can start. There are a handful of states that already have adopted autonomous vehicle laws. These states are paving the way for operations while the data for such operations guides a broader adoption of driver-less vehicles. I think Ashok can talk a little bit about our safety methodology, but we expect that these states and the work ongoing as well as the data that we're providing will pave a way for a broad-based regulatory approval in the U.S., at least, and then in other countries as well.

我可以開始了。有幾個州已經通過了自動駕駛汽車法律。這些州正在為營運鋪平道路，而此類營運的數據則指導著無人駕駛汽車的更廣泛採用。我認為 Ashok 可以談談我們的安全方法，但我們預計這些州和正在進行的工作以及我們提供的數據將至少為美國廣泛的監管批准鋪平道路，然後在其他國家也是如此。

Yes. It's actually been pretty helpful that other autonomous car companies have been cutting a path through the regulatory jungle. So that's actually quite helpful. And they have obviously been operating in San Francisco for a while. I think we got approval for City of L.A. So these approvals are happening rapidly. I think if you've got at scale a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has, let's say, half the accident rate of a human-driven car, I think that's difficult to ignore because at that point, stopping autonomy means killing people.

是的。其他自動駕駛汽車公司在監管叢林中開闢出一條道路實際上非常有幫助。所以這實際上很有幫助。他們顯然已經在舊金山經營了一段時間。我認為我們獲得了洛杉磯市的批准。我認為，如果你獲得了大規模的統計數據，最終表明自動駕駛汽車的事故率是人類駕駛汽車的一半，我認為這是很難忽視的，因為在這一點上，停止自治意味著殺人。

So I actually do not think that there will be significant regulatory barriers provided there was conclusive data that the autonomous car is safer than a human-driven car. And in my view, this will be much like elevators. Elevators used to be operated by a guy with a relay switch. But sometimes that guy would get tired, or grunt, or just make a mistake, and shows somebody in half between floors. So now we just get on an elevator and press a button. We don't think about it. In fact, just kind of weird if somebody is standing there with a relay switch. And that will be how cars work. You just summon the car using your phone, you get in, it takes you to a destination, you get out.

因此，我實際上認為，只要有確鑿的數據表明自動駕駛汽車比人類駕駛的汽車更安全，就不會有重大的監管障礙。在我看來，這很像電梯。電梯過去是由一個有繼電器開關的人來操作的。但有時那個人會累了，或者咕噥，或者只是犯了一個錯誤，並在樓層之間展示了某人的一半。所以現在我們只需登上電梯並按下按鈕即可。我們不考慮這個。事實上，如果有人拿著繼電器開關站在那裡，那就有點奇怪了。這就是汽車的工作原理。你只需用手機召喚汽車，你上車，它會帶你到目的地，然後你下車。

You don't even think about it.

你甚至想都不用想。

You don't even think about it, just like an elevator. It takes you to your floor. That's it. You don't think about it, how the elevator is working or anything like that. And something I should clarify is that Tesla will be operating the fleet. So you can think of like how Tesla -- you think of Tesla like some combination of Airbnb and Uber, meaning that there will be some number of cars that Tesla owns itself and operates in the fleet. There will be some number of cars -- and then there'll be a bunch of cars where they're owned by the end user. That end user can add or subtract their car to the fleet whenever they want, and they can decide if they want to only let the car be used by friends and family or only by 5-star users or by anyone. At any time, they could have the car come back to them and be exclusively theirs, like an Airbnb. You could rent out your guestroom or not any time you want.

你想都不用想，就像電梯一樣。它會帶你到你的樓層。就是這樣。你不會考慮電梯是如何運作的或類似的事情。我應該澄清的是，特斯拉將運營該車隊。所以你可以把特斯拉想像成 Airbnb 和 Uber 的某種組合，這意味著特斯拉將擁有一定數量的汽車並在車隊中運作。將會有一定數量的汽車——然後會有一堆由最終用戶擁有的汽車。最終用戶可以隨時在車隊中添加或減少他們的汽車，並且可以決定是否只讓朋友和家人使用汽車，還是只讓五星級用戶或任何人使用。他們可以隨時將汽車歸還給他們，並完全屬於他們自己，就像 Airbnb 一樣。您可以隨時出租或不出租您的客房。

So as our fleet grows, we have 7 million cars -- 9 million cars, going to eventually tens of millions of cars worldwide. With a constant feedback loop, every time something goes wrong, that gets added to the training data and you get this training flywheel happening in the same way that Google Search has the sort of flywheel. It's very difficult to compete with Google because people are constantly doing searches and clicking and Google is getting that feedback loop.

因此，隨著我們車隊的成長，我們在全球擁有 700 萬輛汽車 - 900 萬輛汽車，最終將達到數千萬輛汽車。透過持續的回饋循環，每次出現問題時，都會將其添加到訓練資料中，並且您會得到這個訓練飛輪，就像 Google 搜尋具有飛輪一樣。與Google競爭非常困難，因為人們不斷地進行搜尋和點擊，而Google正在獲得反饋循環。

So same with Tesla, but at a scale that is maybe difficult to comprehend. But ultimately, it will be tens of millions. I think there's also some potential here for an AWS element down the road where if we've got very powerful inference because we've got a Hardware 3 in the cars, but now all cars are being made with Hardware 4. Hardware 5 is pretty much designed and should be in cars hopefully towards the end of next year. And there's a potential to run -- when the car is not moving, to actually run distributed inference. So kind of like AWS, but distributed inference. Like it takes a lot of computers to train an AI model, but many orders of magnitude less compute to run it.

特斯拉也是如此，但其規模可能難以理解。但最終，這個數字將達到數千萬。我認為 AWS 元素也有一些潛力，如果我們有非常強大的推理能力，因為我們在汽車中配備了硬體 3，但現在所有汽車都是用硬體 4 製造的。明年年底應用於汽車。當汽車不動時，有可能實際運行分散式推理。有點像 AWS，但是是分散式推理。就像需要大量計算機來訓練人工智慧模型，但運行它所需的計算量要少很多數量級。

So if you can imagine a future [path] where there's a fleet of 100 million Teslas, and on average, they've got like maybe a kilowatt of inference compute, that's 100 gigawatts of inference compute distributed all around the world. It's pretty hard to put together 100 gigawatts of AI compute. And even in an autonomous future where the car is perhaps used instead of being used 10 hours a week, it is used 50 hours a week. That still leaves over 100 hours a week where the car inference computer could be doing something else. And it seems like it will be a waste not to use it.

因此，如果你可以想像未來的[路徑]，其中有一支由1 億輛特斯拉組成的車隊，平均而言，它們可能擁有一千瓦的推理計算能力，那麼分佈在世界各地的100 吉瓦的推理計算能力。整合 100 吉瓦的人工智慧運算量相當困難。即使在自動駕駛的未來，汽車可能不再是每週使用 10 小時，而是每週使用 50 小時。這仍然讓汽車推理計算機每周有 100 多個小時可以做其他事情。而且好像不用使用就浪費了。

Ashok, do you want to chime in on your process in safety?

Ashok，您想安全地參與您的流程嗎？

Yes, we have multiple years of validating the safety. In any given week, we train hundreds of neural networks that can produce different trajectories for how to drive the car, replay them through the millions of clips that we have already collected from our users and our own QA. Those are like critical events, like someone jumping out in front or like other critical events that we have gathered database over many, many years, and we replay through all of them to make sure that we are net improving safety.

是的，我們有多年的安全性驗證經驗。在任何一周，我們都會訓練數百個神經網絡，這些神經網路可以產生不同的駕駛汽車軌跡，並透過我們從使用者和我們自己的品質檢查收集的數百萬個剪輯來重播它們。這些就像關鍵事件，例如有人在前面跳出來，或者就像我們多年來收集資料庫的其他關鍵事件一樣，我們會重播所有這些事件，以確保我們正在淨提高安全性。

And then we have simulation systems. We also try to recreate this and test this in close to fashion. And some of this is validated, we give it to our QA networks. We have hundreds of them in different cities, in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, New York, a lot of different locations. They are also driving this and collecting real-world miles, and we have an estimate of what are the critical events, are they net improvement compared to the previous week builds. And once we have confidence that the build is a net improvement, then we start shipping to early users, like 2,000 employees initially that they would like it to build. They will give feedback on like if it's an improvement or they're noting some new issues that we did not capture in our own QA process. And only after all of this is validated, then we go to external customers.

然後我們有模擬系統。我們還嘗試重新創建它並以接近時尚的方式進行測試。其中一些經過驗證，我們將其提供給我們的 QA 網路。我們在舊金山、洛杉磯、奧斯汀、紐約等不同的城市有數百個這樣的地點。他們也在駕駛它並收集現實世界的里程，我們對關鍵事件進行了估計，與前一周的構建相比，它們是否有淨改進。一旦我們確信建置是一個淨改進，我們就會開始向早期用戶交付，例如最初他們希望建造的 2,000 名員工。他們會提供回饋，例如是否有改進，或者他們注意到我們在自己的品質檢查流程中未捕獲的一些新問題。只有在所有這些都經過驗證後，我們才會去找外部客戶。

And even when we go external, we have like live dashboards of monitoring every critical event that's happening in the fleet sorted by the criticality of it. So we are having a constant pulse on the build quality and the safety improvement along the way. And then any failures like Elon alluded to, we'll get the data back, add it to the training and that improves the model in the next cycle. So we have this like constant feedback loop of issues, fixes, evaluations and then rinse and repeat. And especially with the new V12 architecture, all of this is automatically improving without requiring much engineering interventions in the sense that engineers don't have to be creative and like how they code the algorithms. It's mostly learning on its own based on data. So you see that, okay, every failure or like this is how a person chooses, this is how you drive this intersection or something like that, they get the data back. We add it to the neural network, and it learns from that trained data automatically instead of some engineers saying that, oh, here, you must rotate the steering wheel by this much or something like that. There's no hard inference conditions. If everything is neural network, it's pretty soft, it's probabilistic and circular. That's probabilistic distribution based on the new data that it's getting.

即使我們走向外部，我們也有即時儀表板來監控車隊中發生的每個關鍵事件，並按其重要性排序。因此，我們一直在不斷地關注建構品質和安全性的改進。然後，像埃隆提到的任何失敗，我們都會取回數據，將其添加到訓練中，並在下一個週期中改進模型。所以我們有這樣的問題、修復、評估的持續回饋循環，然後沖洗並重複。尤其是使用新的 V12 架構，所有這些都會自動改進，而不需要太多的工程幹預，因為工程師不必具有創造力，也不必喜歡他們編寫演算法的方式。它主要是根據數據自行學習。所以你會看到，好吧，每次失敗或類似的事情都是一個人的選擇，這就是你駕駛這個十字路口或類似的東西的方式，他們獲取數據。我們將它添加到神經網路中，它會自動從經過訓練的數據中學習，而不是一些工程師說，哦，在這裡，你必須將方向盤旋轉這麼多或類似的東西。沒有硬性推理條件。如果一切都是神經網絡，那麼它是相當軟的、機率性的和循環的。這是基於所獲得的新數據的機率分佈。

Yes. And we do have some insight into how good the things will be in like, let's say, 3 or 4 months because we have advanced models that our far more capable than what is in the car, but have some issues with them that we need to fix. So they are there'll be a step change improvement in the capabilities of the car, but it will have some quirks that are -- that need to be addressed in order to release it. As Ashok was saying, we have to be very careful in what we release the fleet or to customers in general. So like -- if we look at say 12.4 and 12.5, which are really could arguably even be V13, V14 because it's pretty close to a total retrain of the neural nets and in each case, are substantially different. So we have good insight into where the model is, how well the car will perform, in, say, 3 or 4 months.

是的。我們確實對 3 或 4 個月後的情況會有一些了解，因為我們擁有先進的模型，它們的能力比汽車中的模型要強大得多，但它們存在一些問題，我們需要解決使固定。因此，汽車的功能將會發生重大變化，但它也會有一些怪癖，需要解決這些怪癖才能發布它。正如阿肖克所說，我們在發布機隊或向一般客戶發布的內容時必須非常小心。所以，如果我們看一下 12.4 和 12.5，它們實際上甚至可以說是 V13、V14，因為它非常接近神經網路的完全重新訓練，並且在每種情況下都有很大不同。因此，我們可以很好地了解模型的位置以及汽車在 3 或 4 個月後的表現如何。

Yes. In terms of scaling, people in here coming and they generally talk about models scaling, where they increase the model size a lot and then their corresponding gains in performance, but we have also figured out scaling loss and other access in addition to the model side scaling, making also data scaling. You can increase the amount of data you use to train the neural network and that also gives similar gains and you can also scale up by training compute. You can train it for much longer and one more GPUs or more Dojo nodes, and that also gives better performance. And you can also have architecture scaling where you count with better architectures for the same amount of compute produce better results.

是的。在擴展方面，這裡的人們通常會談論模型擴展，他們會大量增加模型大小，然後相應地提高效能，但除了模型方面之外，我們還解決了擴展損失和其他存取問題縮放，也使得資料縮放。您可以增加用於訓練神經網路的資料量，這也會帶來類似的效益，您也可以透過訓練運算來擴大規模。您可以訓練它更長時間，並增加一個 GPU 或更多 Dojo 節點，這也會帶來更好的效能。您還可以進行架構擴展，使用更好的架構來實現相同的運算量，從而產生更好的結果。

So a combination of model size scaling, data scaling, training compute scaling and the architecture scaling, we can basically extrapolate, okay, with the continue scaling based at this ratio, we can predict future performance. Obviously, it takes time to do the experiments because it takes a few weeks to train, it takes a few weeks to collect tens of millions of video clips and process all of them, but you can estimate what is going to be the future progress based on the trends that we have seen in the past, and they're generally held true based on past data.

因此，結合模型大小縮放、資料縮放、訓練計算縮放和架構縮放，我們基本上可以推斷，好吧，透過基於此比率的持續縮放，我們可以預測未來的效能。顯然，做實驗需要時間，因為需要幾週的時間來訓練，需要幾週的時間來收集數千萬個影片剪輯並處理所有這些，但你可以根據未來的進展來估計基於我們過去看到的趨勢，並且基於過去的數據，它們通常是正確的。

Okay. Thank you very much. I'll go to the next question, which is, can we get an official announcement of the time line for the $25,000 vehicle?

好的。非常感謝。我將討論下一個問題，即我們能否得到官方公佈的 25,000 美元車輛的時間表？

I think Elon mentioned it in the opening remarks. But as he mentioned, we're updating our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of our low-cost vehicles in a more efficient way. That's our mission, to get the most affordable cars to customers as fast as possible. These new vehicles we built on our existing lines and open capacity, and that's a major shift, to utilize all our capacity with marginal CapEx before we go spend high CapEx.

我想伊隆在開場白中提到了這一點。但正如他所提到的，我們正在更新未來的車輛陣容，以更有效的方式加速推出低成本車輛。這是我們的使命，盡快為客戶提供最實惠的汽車。我們在現有線路和開放產能上建造了這些新車輛，這是一個重大轉變，在我們花費高資本支出之前，以邊際資本支出利用我們所有的產能。

Yes. We'll talk about this more on August 8. But really, the way to think of Tesla is almost entirely in terms of solving autonomy and being able to turn on that autonomy for a gigantic fleet. And I think it might be the biggest asset value appreciation in history when that day happens when you can do unsupervised full self-driving.

是的。我們將在 8 月 8 日進一步討論這個問題。我認為，當有一天你可以進行無人監督的全自動駕駛時，這可能是史上最大的資產增值。

5 million cars?

500萬輛汽車？

A little less. Yes. It will be 7 million cars in a year or so and then 10 million and then eventually, we're talking about tens of millions of cars. Not eventually, it's like before the end of this particular -- within the decade, it's several tens of million cars, I think.

少一點。是的。在一年左右的時間裡，汽車數量將達到 700 萬輛，然後是 1000 萬輛，最後，我們談論的是數千萬輛汽車。不是最終，就像在這個特殊時期結束之前一樣——我認為在十年內，會有數千萬輛汽車。

The next question is, what is the progress of the Cybertruck ramp?

接下來的問題是，Cyber​​truck坡道的進度如何？

I can take that one too. Cybertruck at 1,000 a week just a couple of weeks ago. This happened in the first 4 to 5 months since we SOP-ed late last year. Of course, volume production is what matters. That's what drives costs, and so our costs are dropping. But the ramp still faces like a lot of challenges with so many new technologies, some supplier limitations, et cetera, and continue to ramp this year, just focusing on cost efficiency and quality.

我也可以拿那個。就在幾週前，Cyber​​truck 的銷量還達到了每週 1,000 輛。這發生在我們去年底進行 SOP 以來的前 4 到 5 個月內。當然，量產才是最重要的。這就是成本的驅動因素，因此我們的成本正在下降。但成長仍面臨許多挑戰，有如此多的新技術、一些供應商限制等，今年將繼續成長，只專注於成本效率和品質。

Okay. Thank you. The next question, have any of the legacy automakers contacted Tesla about possibly licensing FSD in the future?

好的。謝謝。下一個問題是，是否有任何傳統汽車製造商聯繫過特斯拉，討論未來可能授權 FSD 的事宜？

We're in conversations with one major automaker regarding licensing FSD.

我們正在與一家主要汽車製造商就 FSD 許可事宜進行對話。

Thank you. The next question is about the robotaxi unveil, Elon already talked about that. So we'll have to wait till August. The following question is about the next-generation vehicle. We already talked about that. So let's go to the Semi. What is the time line for scaling Semi?

謝謝。下一個問題是關於機器人計程車的揭幕，埃隆已經談到了這一點。所以我們得等到八月。以下問題是關於下一代汽車的。我們已經討論過這一點。那麼就讓我們去準決賽吧。擴展 Semi 的時間表是什麼？

So we're finalizing the engineering of Semi to enable like a super cost-effective high-volume production with our learnings from our fleet and our pilot fleet and Pepsi's fleet, which we are expanding this year marginally. In parallel, as we showed in the shareholders' deck, we have started construction on the factory in Reno. Our first vehicles are planned for late 2021, with external customers starting in 2026.

因此，我們正在完成 Semi 的工程設計，以利用我們從我們的機隊、試點機隊和百事可樂機隊中學到的經驗，實現超級具有成本效益的大批量生產，今年我們將略微擴大這些機隊。同時，正如我們在股東大會上所展示的那樣，我們已經開始在裡諾建造工廠。我們的第一批車輛計劃於 2021 年底推出，外部客戶將於 2026 年開始推出。

Okay. A couple of more questions. So our favorite, can we make FSD transfer permanent until FSD is fully delivered with Level 5 autonomy?

好的。還有幾個問題。那麼我們最喜歡的問題是，我們能否讓 FSD 轉移永久化，直到 FSD 完全達到 5 級自主化？

No.

不。

Okay. Next question. What is the getting -- what is getting the production ramp at Lathrop? Where do you see the Megapack run rate at the end of the year? Mike?

好的。下一個問題。拉斯羅普的產量增加是什麼？您認為年底 Megapack 運作率如何？麥克風？

Yes. Lathrop is ramping as planned. We have our second GA line allowing us to increase our exit rate from 20 gigawatt hours per year to -- at the start of this year to 40 gigawatt hours per year by the end of the year. That line is commissioned. There's really nothing limiting the ramp. Given the longer sales cycles for these large projects, we typically have order visibility 12 to 24 months prior to ship dates. So we're able to plan the build plan several quarters in advance. So this allows us to ramp the factory to align with the business and order growth. Lastly, we'd like to thank our customers globally for their trust in Tesla as a partner for these incredible projects.

是的。拉斯羅普正在按計劃進行。我們擁有第二條 GA 生產線，使我們能夠將退出率從今年年初的每年 20 吉瓦時增加到年底的每年 40 吉瓦時。該線路已投入使用。確實沒有什麼限制坡道。鑑於這些大型項目的銷售週期較長，我們通常可以在出貨日期前 12 至 24 個月掌握訂單可見度。因此，我們能夠提前幾季制定建置計劃。因此，這使我們能夠擴大工廠規模，以適應業務和訂單的成長。最後，我們要感謝全球客戶對特斯拉作為這些令人難以置信的專案的合作夥伴的信任。

Okay. Thank you very much. Let's go to analyst questions. The first question comes from Toni Sacconaghi from Bernstein.

好的。非常感謝。讓我們來回答分析師的問題。第一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的東尼薩科納吉。

I was just wondering if you can elaborate a little bit more on kind of the new vehicles that you talked about today. Are these like tweaks on existing models, given that they're going to be running on the same lines? Or are these like new models? And how should we think about them in the context of like the Model 3 Highland update? What will these models be like relative to that? And given the quick time frame, Model 3 Highland has required a lot of work and a lot of retooling. Maybe you can help put that all in context. And I have a follow-up, please.

我只是想知道您是否可以詳細說明您今天談到的新車類型。鑑於它們將在同一條線上運行，這些是否類似於對現有模型的調整？或者這些是新型號嗎？在 Model 3 Highland 更新等背景下，我們應該如何看待它們？相對於此，這些模型會是什麼樣子？由於時間緊迫，Model 3 Highland 需要大量工作和設備重組。也許你可以幫助把這一切放在上下文中。我有一個後續行動，請。

I think we've said we were on that front. So what's your follow-up?

我想我們已經說過我們在這方面。那你的後續行動是什麼？

It's a more personal one for, you, Elon, which is that you're leading many important companies right now. Maybe you can just talk about where your heart is at in terms of your interests and do you expect to lessen your involvement with Tesla at any point over the next 3 years?

對伊隆來說，這是一個更個人化的問題，因為你現在正在領導許多重要的公司。也許你可以談談你的興趣所在，以及你是否希望在未來三年內減少與特斯拉的接觸？

Well, as it constitutes a majority of my work time and I work pretty much every day of the week, it's rare for me to take a Sunday afternoon off. I'm going to make sure Tesla is quite prosperous. And it is like -- it is prosperous and it will be very much so in the future.

嗯，因為它佔據了我工作的大部分時間，而且我一周幾乎每天都在工作，所以我很少在周日下午休息。我要確保特斯拉非常繁榮。它就像——它很繁榮，而且在未來也會非常繁榮。

Let's go to Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.

讓我們請摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯發言。

Okay. Great. Hey, Elon. So you and your team on volume expect a 2024 growth rate notably lower than that achieved in 2023. But what's your team's degree of confidence on growth above 0%? Or in other words, does that statement leave room for potentially lower sales year-on-year?

好的。偉大的。嘿，埃隆。因此，您和您的團隊預計 2024 年的成長率將明顯低於 2023 年的成長率。或者換句話說，該聲明是否為銷售額年減留下了空間？

No, I think we'll have higher sales this year than last year.

不，我認為今年我們的銷售額會比去年更高。

Okay. My follow-up, Elon, on future products. If you had nailed execution, assuming that you nail execution on your next-gen cheaper vehicles, more aggressive Giga castings, I don't want to say one piece, but getting closer to one piece, structural pack unboxed, 300-mile range, $25,000 price point, putting aside robotaxi, those features unique to you, how long would it take your best Chinese competitors to copy a cheaper and better vehicle that you could offer a couple of years from now? How long would it take your best Chinese competitors to copy that?

好的。我的後續行動，埃隆，關於未來的產品。如果你已經確定了執行力，假設你在下一代更便宜的車輛上確定了執行力，更激進的Giga 鑄件，我不想說一件，但更接近一件，結構包未裝箱，300 英里範圍， 25,000 美元的價格點，拋開機器人出租車這些你們獨有的功能，你們最好的中國競爭對手需要多長時間才能複製你們幾年後可以提供的更便宜、更好的車輛？你最好的中國競爭對手需要多長時間才能複製這一點？

I mean I don't know what our competitors can do, except we've done relatively better than they have because if you look at the drop in our competitors in China sales versus our drop in sales, our drop was less than theirs. So we're doing well. But I think [Kathy] would say it best, like really, we should be thought of as an AI or robotics company. If you value Tesla as just like an auto company, you just have to -- fundamentally, it's just the wrong framework. If you ask the wrong question, then the right answer is impossible. So I mean if somebody doesn't believe Tesla is going to solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor in the company. Like that is -- but we will and we are. And then you have a car that goes from 10 hours of use a week, like 1.5 hours a day to probably 50%, but it costs the same.

我的意思是，我不知道我們的競爭對手能做什麼，除非我們做得比他們相對更好，因為如果你看看我們的競爭對手在中國的銷售額下降與我們的銷售額下降相比，我們的下降幅度小於他們。所以我們做得很好。但我認為 [Kathy] 會說得最好，實際上，我們應該被視為一家人工智慧或機器人公司。如果你像對待汽車公司一樣評價特斯拉，你就必須——從根本上來說，這只是一個錯誤的框架。如果你問了錯誤的問題，那麼正確的答案是不可能的。所以我的意思是，如果有人不相信特斯拉會解決自動駕駛問題，我認為他們不應該成為該公司的投資者。就像那樣——但我們會的，而且我們確實會這樣做。然後你的汽車可以從每週使用 10 小時，例如每天 1.5 小時，增加到大約 50%，但成本是一樣的。

I think that's the key thing to remember, right, especially if you look at FSD Supervised, if you didn't believe in autonomy, this should give you a preview that this is coming. It's actually getting better day by day.

我認為這是要記住的關鍵，對吧，特別是如果你看看 FSD Supervised，如果你不相信自治，這應該會讓你預感到這即將到來。事實上，情況正在一天天好起來。

Yes. If you've not tried the FSD 12.3, and like I said, 12.4 is going to be significantly better and 12.5 even better than that, and we have visibility into those things, then you really don't understand what's going on. It's not possible.

是的。如果您還沒有嘗試過 FSD 12.3，並且就像我說的那樣，12.4 會明顯更好，12.5 甚至會更好，而且我們對這些東西有可見性，那麼您真的不明白髮生了什麼。這是不可能的。

Yes. And that's why we can't just look at just as a car company because a car company would just have a car. But here, we have more than a car company because the cars can be autonomous. And like I said, it's happening.

是的。這就是為什麼我們不能只是將其視為一家汽車公司，因為汽車公司只有一輛汽車。但在這裡，我們不僅僅是一家汽車公司，因為汽車可以實現自動駕駛。就像我說的，它正在發生。

Yes. This is all in addition to Tesla, the AI community is just like increasing -- improving rapidly.

是的。這一切除了特斯拉之外，AI社群就像在快速成長——進步。

Yes. I mean we're putting the actual auto in automobile. So sort of we go like, well, sort of like tell us about future horse carriages you're making. I'm like, well, actually, it doesn't need a horse. That's the whole point. That's really the whole point.

是的。我的意思是我們正在將真正的汽車放入汽車中。所以我們就好像，好吧，有點像告訴我們您正在製造的未來馬車。我想，好吧，實際上，它不需要馬。這就是重點。這就是重點。

Okay. Thank you. The next question comes from Alex Potter from Piper Sandler.

好的。謝謝。下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Alex Potter。

Yes, so I couldn't agree more. The thesis hinges completely on AI, the future of AI, full self-driving neural net training, all of these things. In that context, Elon, you've spoken about your desire to obtain 25% voting control of the company. And I understand completely why that would be.

是的，所以我完全同意。這篇論文完全取決於人工智慧、人工智慧的未來、全自動駕駛神經網路訓練，所有這些。在這種情況下，埃隆，你談到了你希望獲得公司 25% 投票控制權的願望。我完全理解為什麼會這樣。

So I'm not necessarily asking about that. I'm asking if you've come up with any mechanism by which you can ensure that you'll obtain that level of voting control. Because if not, then the core part of the thesis could potentially be at risk. So any additional commentary you might have on that topic.

所以我不一定要問這個。我問你是否已經想出任何機制來確保你獲得這種程度的投票控制權。因為如果不這樣做，那麼論文的核心部分可能會面臨風險。那麼您可能對此主題有任何其他評論。

Well, I think no matter what Tesla, even if I cannot buy aliens tomorrow, Tesla will solve autonomy, maybe a little slower, but it would solve autonomy for vehicles at least. I don't know if we would win on with respect to Optimus or with respect to future products, but it would -- that there's enough momentum for Tesla to solve autonomy even if I disappeared for vehicles. Yes, there's a whole range of things we can do in the future beyond that. I'll be more reticent with respect to Optimus. If we have a super-sentient humanoid robot that can follow you indoors and that you can't escape, we're talking terminator-level risk, then -- yes, I'd be uncomfortable with if there's not some meaningful level of influence over how that is deployed. And there's -- shareholders have an opportunity to ratify or reratify the sort of compensation, I guess I can't say that one. That is a fact. They have an opportunity. And yes, we'll see. If the company generates a lot of positive cash flow, we could obviously buy back shares.

嗯，我想不管特斯拉怎麼樣，即使我明天買不到外星人，特斯拉也會解決自動駕駛問題，也許會慢一點，但它至少會解決車輛的自動駕駛問題。我不知道我們是否會在擎天柱或未來產品方面獲勝，但它會——即使我在汽車領域消失，特斯拉也有足夠的動力來解決自動駕駛問題。是的，除此之外，我們未來還可以做很多事。對於擎天柱我會更加沉默。如果我們有一個超級感知能力的人形機器人，它可以在室內跟隨你並且你無法逃脫，我們正在談論終結者級別的風險，那麼- 是的，如果沒有某種有意義的影響力，我會感到不舒服關於如何部署。股東有機會批准或重新批准某種補償，我想我不能這麼說。這是事實。他們有機會。是的，我們拭目以待。如果公司產生大量正現金流，我們顯然可以回購股票。

All right. That's actually all very helpful context. Maybe one final question and I'll pass it on. OpEx reductions, thank you for quantifying the impact there. I'd be interested also in potentially more qualitative discussion of what the implications are for these head count reductions. What are the types of activities that you're presumably sacrificing as a result of parting ways with these folks?

好的。這其實都是非常有用的背景。也許還有最後一個問題，我會轉述的。營運支出減少，感謝您量化那裡的影響。我也對潛在的更定性的討論感興趣，這些討論對這些人員減少的影響是什麼。由於與這些人分道揚鑣，你可能會犧牲哪些類型的活動？

So like we said, we've done these head count reductions across the board. And as companies grow over time, there are certain redundancies. There's some duplication of efforts, which happens in certain areas. So you need to go back and look at where all these pockets are, get rid of it. So we're basically going through that exercise wherein we're like, hey, how do we set this company right for the next phase of growth? And the way to think about it is any tree which grows, it needs pruning. This is the pruning exercise which we went through. And at the end of it, we'll be much stronger and much more resilient to deal with the future because the future is really bright. Like I said in my opening remarks, we just have to get through this period and get there.

正如我們所說，我們已經全面削減了員工人數。隨著公司的不斷發展，會出現一定程度的裁員。在某些領域會出現一些重複的工作。所以你需要回去看看所有這些口袋在哪裡，把它們扔掉。所以我們基本上正在經歷這樣的練習，我們會想，嘿，我們要如何讓這家公司適應下一階段的成長？思考這個問題的方式是，任何生長的樹都需要修剪。這是我們經歷的修剪練習。最終，我們將變得更強大、更有彈性來應對未來，因為未來確實是光明的。正如我在開場白中所說，我們只需要度過這段時期並到達目標。

Yes, we're not giving up anything that is significant that I'm aware of. We've had a long period of prosperity from 2019 to now. And so if a company sort of organizationally is 5% wrong per year, that accumulates to 25%, 30% of inefficiency. We've made some corrections along the way. But it is time to reorganize the company for the next phase of growth and you really need to reorganize it, just like a human when we start off with one cell and kind of zygote and blastocyst and you start growing arms and legs and briefly, you have a tail.

是的，我們不會放棄任何據我所知的重要事情。從2019年到現在，我們經歷了很長一段繁榮時期。因此，如果一家公司每年在組織上出現 5% 的錯誤，那麼累積就會造成 25%、30% 的低效率。我們一路上做了一些修正。但現在是重組公司以實現下一階段增長的時候了，你確實需要重組它，就像人類一樣，當我們從一個細胞、一種受精卵和囊胚開始時，你開始長出胳膊和腿，短暫地，你有尾巴。

But you shed the tail.

但你卻把尾巴甩掉了。

You shed the tail, hopefully. And then you're a baby, you basically, you have to be the organism. A company is kind of like creature growing. And if you don't reorganize it for different phases of growth, it will fail. You can't have the same organizational structure if you're 10 cells versus 100 versus 1 million versus 1 billion versus 1 trillion. Humans are around 35 trillion cells. It doesn't feel like -- it feels like it's like one person. But you're basically a walking cell colony of roughly 35 trillion, depending on your body mass, and about 3x that number in bacteria. So anyway, you've got to reorganize the company for a new phase of growth or it will fail to achieve that growth.

希望你能把尾巴甩掉。然後你就是一個嬰兒，基本上，你必須成為一個有機體。公司有點像生物的生長。如果你不針對不同的成長階段對其進行重組，它就會失敗。如果你有 10 個單元、100 個單元、100 萬單元、10 億單元、1 兆單元，那麼你就不可能擁有相同的組織結構。人類約有 35 兆個細胞。感覺不像——感覺就像是一個人。但你基本上是一個行走的細胞群，大約有 35 兆個，取決於你的體重，而細菌的數量大約是這個數字的 3 倍。所以無論如何，你必須重組公司以實現新的成長階段，否則它將無法實現這一成長。

Let's go to Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs.

讓我們請高盛的馬克·德萊尼 (Mark Delaney) 發言。

The company previously characterized potential FSD licensing discussions in the early phase and some OEMs had not really been believing in it. Can you elaborate on how much the licensing business opportunity you mentioned today has progressed? And is there anything Tesla needs to achieve with the technology in terms of product milestones in order to be successful at reaching a licensing agreement in your view?

該公司先前曾在早期階段描述過潛在的 FSD 許可討論，但一些 OEM 廠商並不真正相信這一點。您能否詳細說明一下您今天提到的授權業務機會進展到了什麼程度？在您看來，為了成功達成授權協議，特斯拉需要在產品里程碑方面利用該技術實現什麼目標？

Well, I think we just need to -- it just needs to be obvious that our approach is the right approach. And I think it is. I think now with 12.3, if you just have the car drive you around, it is obvious that our solution with a relatively low-cost inference computer and standard cameras can achieve self-driving. No LiDARs, no radars, no ultrasonic, nothing.

嗯，我認為我們只需要——只需要明顯地表明我們的方法是正確的。我認為是的。我想現在到了12.3，如果你只是讓汽車開著你到處轉，很明顯我們的解決方案用相對低成本的推理計算機和標準攝像頭就可以實現自動駕駛。沒有光達、沒有雷達、沒有超音波，什麼都沒有。

No heavy integration work for vehicle manufacturers.

汽車製造商無需進行繁重的整合工作。

Yes. So it really just be a case of having them use the same cameras and inference computer and licensing our software. Once it becomes obvious that if you don't have this in a car, nobody wants your car. It's a smart car. I remember -- I sort of remember, in fact, when Nokia was king of the hill...

是的。因此，這實際上只是讓他們使用相同的相機和推理計算機並許可我們的軟體的情況。一旦很明顯，如果你的車裡沒有這個，就沒人想要你的車了。這是一輛智慧汽車。我記得──事實上，我還記得，當諾基亞稱霸時…

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Yes, crushing. And they sort of came out with a smartphone that was basically a brick with limited functionality. And then the iPhone and Android -- but people still did not understand that all the phones are going to be that way. There's not going to be any phone products. They're still be a niche product.

是的，粉碎。他們推出了一款基本上是功能有限的磚頭智慧型手機。然後是 iPhone 和 Android，但人們仍然不明白所有的手機都會如此。不會有任何電話產品。它們仍然是一個利基產品。

Or hand phones.

或手機。

Yes, now even (inaudible). When was the last time you saw a hand phone?

是的，現在甚至（聽不清楚）。您最後一次看到手機是什麼時候？

I have no idea.

我不知道。

In a hotel. Sometimes in a hotel.

在酒店裡。有時在酒店。

Yes, the hotels have them. So people don't understand that all cars will need to be smart cars or you will not sell or the car will not -- nobody would buy it. Once that becomes obvious, I think licensing becomes not optional.

是的，飯店都有。所以人們不明白所有的汽車都需要是智慧汽車，否則你就不會賣，或汽車不會——沒有人會買它。一旦這一點變得顯而易見，我認為許可就不再是可選的。

Becomes a method of survival.

成為一種生存方法。

Yes, absolutely, it is. License it or nobody will buy your car.

是的，絕對是這樣。獲得許可，否則沒有人會買你的車。

I mean one other thing which I'll add is in the conversations which we've had with some of these OEMs, I just want to also point out that they take a lot of time in their product life cycle. They're talking about years before they will put it in their product. We might have a licensing deal earlier than that, but it takes a while. So this is where the big difference between us and them is.

我的意思是我要補充的另一件事是在我們與其中一些原始設備製造商的對話中，我只想指出他們在產品生命週期中花費了大量時間。他們談論的是幾年後才能將其放入他們的產品中。我們可能會比這更早達成許可協議，但這需要一段時間。所以這就是我們和他們最大的差別。

Yes, I mean, really a deal signed now would result in it being in a car probably 3 years.

是的，我的意思是，實際上現在簽署的協議將導致它在汽車中的使用時間可能為 3 年。

That would be early.

那就早了。

Yes. That's like lightening basically.

是的。基本上就像閃電一樣。

That's an eager OEM.

這是一個熱切的 OEM。

Yes. So I wouldn't be surprised if we do sign a deal. I think we have a good chance we do sign a deal this year, maybe more than one. But yes, it would be probably 3 years before it's integrated with a car, even though all you need is cameras and our inference computer. So just talking about a massive design change.

是的。因此，如果我們真的簽署協議，我不會感到驚訝。我認為我們今年很有可能簽署一項協議，也許不只一項。但是，是的，它可能需要 3 年時間才能與汽車集成，儘管您所需要的只是攝影機和我們的推理計算機。所以只是談論一個巨大的設計改變。

Yes. And again, just to clarify, it's not the work which we have to do, it's the work which they have to do which will take the time.

是的。再次澄清一下，這不是我們必須做的工作，而是他們必須做的需要時間的工作。

Yes, very helpful. My follow-up was to better understand Tesla's approach to pricing going forward. Previously, the company had said that the price reductions were driving incremental demand with how affordable the cars have become, especially for vehicles that have access to IRA credits and some of the leasing offers that Tesla has in place. Do you still see meaningful incremental price reductions as making sense from here for the existing products? And can the company meaningfully lower prices from here and also stay free cash flow positive on an annual basis with the current product set?

是的，非常有幫助。我的後續行動是更了解特斯拉未來的定價方法。先前，該公司曾表示，隨著汽車價格的降低，降價正在推動需求增量，特別是對於能夠獲得 IRA 積分和特斯拉提供的一些租賃優惠的車輛。您仍然認為從現在開始對現有產品進行有意義的增量降價有意義嗎？公司能否從現在開始大幅降低價格，並在當前產品組合的基礎上每年保持正的自由現金流？

Yes. I think we can be free cash flow positive meaningfully.

是的。我認為我們可以實現有意義的正自由現金流。

I think Vaibhav said it in his opening remarks, like our cost down efforts, we basically were offsetting the price cuts like we're trying to give it back to the customers.

我認為 Vaibhav 在他的開場白中說過，就像我們降低成本的努力一樣，我們基本上是在抵消降價，就像我們試圖將其返還給客戶一樣。

Yes. I mean at the end of the day, like for any given company, if you sell a great product at a great price -- if you have a great product at a great price, the sales will be excellent. That's true of any area. So over time, we do need to keep making sure that we're -- that it's a great product at a great price. And moreover, that price is accessible to people. So it's not -- you have to solve both the value for money and the fundamental affordability question.

是的。我的意思是，歸根結底，就像對於任何特定的公司一樣，如果你以優惠的價格出售優質的產品 - 如果你以優惠的價格提供優質的產品，那麼銷售將會非常好。任何地區都是如此。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們確實需要不斷確保我們的產品價格實惠。而且，這個價格是人們可以負擔的。所以不是——你必須解決物有所值和基本的負擔能力問題。

The fundamental affordability question is sometimes overlooked. If somebody is earning several hundred thousand dollars a year, they don't think of a car from a fundamental affordability standpoint. But the vast majority of people are living paycheck to paycheck. So it actually makes a difference if the cost per month for lease refinancing is $10 one way or the other. It is important to keep improving the affordability and to keep making the price...

基本的負擔能力問題有時會被忽略。如果某人年收入數十萬美元，他們不會從基本的負擔能力角度考慮汽車。但絕大多數人都是靠工資過活。因此，如果每月租賃再融資成本為 10 美元，無論哪種方式，實際上都會產生影響。重要的是不斷提高人們的承受能力並不斷降低價格......

More accessible.

更容易接近。

Yes, exactly. Make the price more accessible, the value for money better, and to keep improving that over time.

對，就是這樣。讓價格更實惠，物有所值，並隨著時間的推移不斷改進。

But also make the [cash flow] if people want to buy.

如果人們想購買，也可以創造[現金流]。

Yes, it's going to be a great product at a great price. And the standards for what constitutes great product at a great price keep increasing. So there's like -- you can't just be static. You have to keep making the car better, improving the price, but improving the cost of production, and that's what we're doing.

是的，這將會是一款物美價廉的產品。優質產品、高價格的標準不斷提高。所以，你不能只是一成不變。你必須不斷改進汽車，提高價格，同時提高生產成本，這就是我們正在做的事情。

Yes. And in fact, like I said in my opening remarks also, like the revised -- the updated Model 3 is a fantastic car. I don't think people fully even understand that lot of engineering effort which has gone, and Lars and team have actually put out videos explaining how much the car is different, I mean it looks and feels different. Not only it looks and feels different, we've added so much value to it. But you can lease it for like as low as $299 a month.

是的。事實上，就像我在開場白中所說的那樣，就像改進後的 Model 3 一樣，更新的 Model 3 是一輛非常棒的汽車。我認為人們甚至沒有完全理解已經付出的大量工程努力，拉爾斯和團隊實際上已經發布了影片來解釋這輛車有多大的不同，我的意思是它的外觀和感覺都不同。不僅它的外觀和感覺不同，我們還為其添加了很多價值。但您可以以每月 299 美元的價格租賃。

Yes. Without gas.

是的。無氣。

Yes.

是的。

The next question comes from George from Canaccord.

下一個問題來自 Canaccord 的 George。

First, could you please help us understand some of the timing of launching FSD in additional geographies, including maybe clarifying your recent comment about China?

首先，您能否幫助我們了解在其他地區推出 FSD 的一些時機，包括澄清一下您最近對中國的評論？

I mean like new markets, yes, we are -- there are a bunch of markets where we don't currently sell cars that we should be selling cars in. We'll see some acceleration of that.

我的意思是像新市場一樣，是的，我們是——有很多我們目前不銷售汽車的市場，但我們應該在這些市場上銷售汽車。

And FSD new markets?

FSD 新市場？

Yes. So think about the end-to-end neural net-based autonomy is that just like a human, it actually works pretty well without modification in almost any market. So we plan on -- with the approval of the regulators, releasing it as a supervised autonomy system in any market that -- where we can get regulatory approval for that, which we think includes China. So yes, it's -- just like a human, you can go rent a car in a foreign country and you can drive pretty well, and obviously, if you live in that country, you'll drive better. And so we'll make the car drive better in these other countries with country-specific training. But it can drive quite well almost everywhere.

是的。因此，考慮一下基於端到端神經網路的自主性，就像人類一樣，它實際上在幾乎任何市場中都可以很好地運行，無需修改。因此，我們計劃在監管機構的批准下，將其作為受監管的自治系統發佈到任何我們可以獲得監管機構批准的市場，我們認為其中包括中國。所以是的，就像人類一樣，你可以在國外租一輛車，你可以開得很好，而且顯然，如果你住在那個國家，你會開得更好。因此，我們將透過針對特定國家/地區的培訓來提高汽車在這些其他國家/地區的駕駛性能。但它幾乎可以在任何地方駕駛得很好。

The basics of driving are basically the same everywhere. Like a car is a car, there's traffic lights...

各地的駕駛基礎基本上相同。就像汽車是汽車一樣，有紅綠燈......

It understands that it shouldn't hit things, no matter where it drives.

它明白，無論行駛到哪裡，它都不應該撞到東西。

Exactly. There are some road rules that you need to follow. And in China, you shouldn't cross over a solid line to do a lane change. U.S. it's a recommendation, I think. China, you get fined heavily if you do that. We have to do some more actions, but it's mostly smaller reductions. It's not like the entire change or type or something.

確切地。您需要遵守一些道路規則。在中國，你不應該越過實線來變換車道。我認為美國是一個建議。中國，如果你這樣做，你會被重罰。我們必須採取更多行動，但大多是較小的削減。它不像整個變化或類型或其他東西。

George, do you have a follow-up?

喬治，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes. So my follow-up has to do with the first quarter deliveries and I'm curious as to whether or not you feel that supply constraints that you mentioned throughout the release impacted the results and maybe can you help us quantify that? And is that why you have some confidence in unit growth in 2024? .

是的。因此，我的後續行動與第一季的交付有關，我很好奇您是否認為您在整個發布過程中提到的供應限制影響了結果，也許您可以幫助我們量化這一點？這就是您對 2024 年銷售成長充滿信心的原因嗎？ 。

I think we did cover this a little bit in the opening remarks to you. Q1 had a lot of different things which are happening. Seasonality was a big one, continued pressure from the macroeconomic environment. We had attacks at our factory. We had Red Sea attacks. We are ramping Model 3. We are ramping Cybertruck. All these things are happening. I mean it almost feels like a culmination of all those activities in a constrained period. And that gives us that confidence that, hey, we don't expect these things to recur.

我想我們在開場白中確實談到了這一點。第一季發生了很多不同的事情。季節性是一個很大的因素，來自宏觀經濟環境的持續壓力。我們的工廠遭到攻擊。我們遭受了紅海襲擊。我們正在加速 Model 3。所有這些事情都在發生。我的意思是，這幾乎感覺像是在有限時期內所有這些活動的高潮。這讓我們有信心，嘿，我們預計這些事情不會再發生。

Yes. We think Q2 will be a lot better.

是的。我們認為第二季會好很多。

Yes.

是的。

It's just one thing after another. Or sometimes, it's crazy.

這只是一件又一件的事情。或者有時候，這很瘋狂。

Yes, exactly. It's just if you've got cars that are sitting on ships, they obviously cannot be delivered to people. And if you've got the excess demand for Model 3 and Model Y in one market, but you don't have it there, it's quite a -- it's extremely a complex logistics situation. So I'd say also the -- we did overcomplicate the sales process, which we've just in the past week or so have greatly simplified. So it became far too complex to buy a Tesla, whereas it should just be you can buy a car in under a minute. So we're getting back to that you can buy a Tesla in under a minute interface from what was quite complex.

對，就是這樣。只是如果你的汽車停在船上，它們顯然無法交付給人們。如果某個市場對 Model 3 和 Model Y 的需求過剩，但那裡卻沒有，那就是一種極其複雜的物流情況。所以我還要說的是——我們確實讓銷售流程變得過於複雜，而我們在過去一周左右已經大大簡化了銷售流程。因此，購買特斯拉變得太複雜了，而你應該在一分鐘內就能買到一輛車。因此，我們回到了您可以在一分鐘內從相當複雜的介面購買特斯拉的問題。

Okay. Thank you. Let's go to Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer.

好的。謝謝。讓我們來聽聽奧本海默的科林‧魯施 (Colin Rusch)。

Given the pursuit of Tesla really as a leader in AI for the physical world, in your comments around distributed inference, can you talk about what that approach is unlocking beyond what's happening in the vehicle right now?

鑑於特斯拉真正追求成為物理世界人工智慧領域的領導者，在您對分散式推理的評論中，您能談談除了目前車輛中發生的情況之外，這種方法還可以解鎖什麼嗎？

Do you want to say something?

你想說些什麼嗎？

Yes. Like Elon mentioned, like the car even when it's a full robotaxi, it's probably going to be used around 50 hours a week.

是的。就像 Elon 提到的，就像這輛車一樣，即使它是一輛完整的機器人計程車，它也可能每週使用約 50 小時。

That's my guess, like 30 hours a week.

這是我的猜測，大概每週 30 小時。

Yes. It could be more or less, but then there's certainly going to be some hours left for charging and cleaning and maintenance in that world. You can do a lot of other workloads. Even right now, we are seeing, for example, these [11] companies have this like batch workloads where they send a bunch of documents and those are run through pretty large neural networks and take a lot of compute to chunk through those workloads. And now that we have already paid for this compute in these cars, it might be wise to use them and not let them be like buying a lot of expensive machinery and leaving them be idle. Like we don't want that. We want to use the computer as much as possible and close to like basically 100% of the time to make a use of it.

是的。可能或多或少，但在那個世界裡肯定還會有一些時間用於充電、清潔和維護。您可以執行許多其他工作負載。例如，即使是現在，我們也看到，這些[11] 公司有類似的批次工作負載，他們發送一堆文檔，這些文檔通過相當大的神經網絡運行，並需要大量計算來分塊處理這些工作負載。現在我們已經為這些汽車的計算付費了，明智的做法是使用它們，而不是讓它們像購買大量昂貴的機器然後讓它們閒置一樣。就像我們不想要那樣。我們希望盡可能多地使用計算機，並且接近基本上 100% 的時間都使用它。

I think it's analogous to Amazon Web Services where people didn't expect that AWS would be the most valuable part of Amazon when it started out as a bookstore. So that was on nobody's radar. But they found that they had excess compute because the compute needs would spike to extreme levels for brief periods of the year and then they had idle compute for the rest of the year. So then what they do is pull that excess compute for the rest of the year. That's kind of...

我認為這類似於亞馬遜網路服務，當亞馬遜最初是一家書店時，人們並沒有想到 AWS 會成為亞馬遜最有價值的部分。所以沒有人注意到這一點。但他們發現，他們的計算量過多，因為計算需求會在一年中的短時間內飆升至極端水平，然後在一年中的剩餘時間計算量處於閒置狀態。那麼他們所做的就是在今年剩下的時間裡拉動多餘的計算。這有點...

Monetize it.

將其貨幣化。

Yes, monetize it. It seems like kind of a no-brainer to say, okay, if we've got millions and then tens of millions of vehicles out there where the computers are idle most of the time that we might well have them do something useful.

是的，將其貨幣化。似乎很容易說，好吧，如果我們有數百萬甚至數千萬輛汽車，其中電腦大部分時間都處於閒置狀態，那麼我們很可能會讓它們做一些有用的事情。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

And then I mean if you get like to the 100 million vehicle level, which I think we will, at some point, get to, then -- and you've got a kilowatt of useable compute and maybe your own Hardware 6 or 7 by that time, then you really -- I think you could have on the order of 100 gigawatts of useful compute, which might be more than anyone more than any company, probably more than any company.

然後我的意思是，如果你達到 1 億輛汽車的水平，我認為我們會在某個時候達到這一水平，那麼你就擁有一千瓦的可用計算能力，也許還有你自己的硬體 6 或 7到那時，你真的——我認為你可以擁有大約100 吉瓦的有用計算量，這可能比任何人都多，比任何公司都多，可能比任何公司都多。

Yes, probably because it takes a lot of intelligence to drive the car anyway. And when it's not driving the car, you just put this intelligence to other uses, solving scientific problems or answer in terms of [this horse] or something else.

是的，可能是因為無論如何駕駛汽車都需要大量的智力。當它不駕駛汽車時，你只需將這種智慧用於其他用途，解決科學問題或用[這匹馬]或其他東西來回答。

We've already learned about deploying workloads to these nodes.

我們已經了解如何將工作負載部署到這些節點。

And unlike laptops and our cell phones, it is totally under Tesla's control. So it's easier to see the road products plus different nodes as opposed to asking users for permission on their own cell phones would be very tedious.

與筆記型電腦和我們的手機不同，它完全在特斯拉的控制之下。因此，更容易看到道路產品和不同的節點，而不是在自己的手機上請求用戶許可，這將是非常乏味的。

Well, you're just draining the battery on the phone.

好吧，你只是耗盡了手機的電池。

Yes, exactly. The battery is also limited.

對，就是這樣。電池也有限。

So like technically, yes, I suppose like Apple would have the most amount of distributed compute, but you can't use it because you can't get the -- you can't just run the phone at full power and drain the battery. So whereas for the car, even if you're a kilowatt-level inference computer, which is crazy power compared to a phone, if you've got 50 or 60 kilowatt hour pack, it's still not a big deal. Whether you plug it or not, you could run for 10 hours and use 10 kilowatt hours of your kilowatt of compute power.

所以從技術上來說，是的，我想蘋果會擁有最多的分散式運算，但你不能使用它，因為你無法得到——你不能只以全功率運行手機並耗盡電池。因此，對於汽車來說，即使你是千瓦級的推理計算機（與手機相比，這已經是瘋狂的功率），如果你有 50 或 60 千瓦時的電池組，這仍然不是什麼大問題。無論是否插電，您都可以運行 10 小時並使用 10 千瓦時的運算能力。

Where we got built in like with cold thermal management. Yes, it's exactly for data centers. It's already there in the car.

我們內建的方式就像冷熱管理一樣。是的，這正是針對資料中心的。它已經在車裡了。

Yes. It's distributed power generation -- distributed access to power and distributed cooling. That was already paid for.

是的。它是分散式發電——分散式供電和分散式冷卻。那已經付錢了。

Yes. I mean that distributed power and cooling, people underestimate that costs a lot of money.

是的。我的意思是分散式電源和冷卻，人們低估了這需要花費很多錢。

Yes. Truly a big...

是的。確實是一個大...

Yes. And the CapEx is shared by the entire world sort of, but then also get a chunk and they get a small profit out of it, maybe.

是的。資本支出是由整個世界共享的，但他們也可能從中獲得一小部分利潤。

Yes.

是的。

And just my follow-up is a little bit more mundane. Looking at the 4680 ramp, can you talk about how close you were to target yields and when you might start to accelerate incremental capacity expansions on that technology?

我的後續行動有點平凡。看看 4680 的產能提升，您能否談談您距離目標產量有多近以及何時可以開始加速該技術的增量產能擴張？

We're making good progress on that. But I don't think it's super important for at least in the near term. As Lars said, we think it will be -- it will exceed the competitiveness of suppliers by the end of this year. And then we'll continue to improve.

我們在這方面取得了良好進展。但我認為至少在短期內這並不是非常重要。正如拉爾斯所說，我們認為到今年年底它將超過供應商的競爭力。然後我們會繼續改進。

Yes. I mean I think it's important to note also that like the ramp right now is relevant to the Cybertruck ramp. And so like we're not going to just randomly build 4680s unless we have a place to put them. And so we're going to make sure we're prudent about that. But we also have a lot of investments with all our cell suppliers and vendors. They're great partners, and they've done great development work with them. And a lot of the advancements in technologies and chemistry you found in 4680, they're also putting into their cells.

是的。我的意思是，我認為值得注意的是，現在的坡道與 Cyber​​truck 坡道有關。因此，我們不會隨機建造 4680，除非我們有地方放置它們。因此，我們將確保對此保持謹慎態度。但我們也與所有電池供應商進行了大量投資。他們是很棒的合作夥伴，並且與他們一起完成了出色的開發工作。您在 4680 中發現的許多技術和化學進步也被應用到了電池中。

Yes. I mean a big part of the 4680, Tesla doing internal cells was a hedge against what would happen with our suppliers. Because for a while there, it was very difficult because every big carmaker put in massive battery orders. And so the price per kilowatt hour of lithium ion batteries went to crazy numbers, crazy levels.

是的。我的意思是，特斯拉 4680 的很大一部分採用內部電池，是為了對沖我們供應商可能發生的情況。因為有一段時間，這非常困難，因為每個大型汽車製造商都投入了大量的電池訂單。因此，鋰離子電池每千瓦時的價格達到了瘋狂的數字、瘋狂的水平。

Bonkers.

瘋子。

Yes, just bonkers. So like, okay, we've got to have some hedge here to deal with cost per kilowatt hours numbers that were double what we anticipated. If we have an internal cell production, then we have that hedge against demand shocks with too much demand. That's really the way to think about it. It's not like we want to take on a whole bunch of problems just for the hell of it. We did the cell program in order to address the crazy increase in cost per kilowatt hour from our suppliers due to gigantic orders placed by every carmaker on Earth.

是的，只是瘋子。所以，好吧，我們必須在這裡進行一些對沖，以應對每千瓦時成本數字是我們預期的兩倍。如果我們有內部電池生產，那麼我們就可以對沖需求過多帶來的需求衝擊。這確實是思考問題的方式。我們並不是想僅僅為了好玩而承擔一大堆問題。我們開展電池計劃是為了解決由於地球上每個汽車製造商都下了巨額訂單而導致供應商每千瓦時成本瘋狂增加的問題。

Okay. Thank you. And the last question comes from Ben Kallo from Baird.

好的。謝謝。最後一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的本·卡洛 (Ben Kallo)。

Well, I want to say again, we'd just like to strongly recommend that anyone who is, I guess, thinking about the Tesla stock should really drive 12.3. It really -- you can't -- it's impossible to understand the company if you do not do this.

好吧，我想再說一遍，我想強烈建議任何正在考慮特斯拉股票的人都應該駕駛 12.3。如果你不這麼做，你真的無法了解這家公司。

All right. So since Ben is not unmuting, let's try Shreyas Patil from Wolfe Research. Final question.

好的。既然 Ben 沒有取消靜音，我們就試試 Wolfe Research 的 Shreyas Patil。最後一個問題。

Just, Elon, during the Investor Day last year, you mentioned that auto COGS per unit for the next-gen vehicle would decline by 50% versus the current 3 and Y. I think that was implying something around $20,000 of COGS. About 1/3 of that was coming from the unboxed manufacturing process. But I'm curious if you see an opportunity that the -- some of the other drivers around powertrain cost reduction or material cost savings, would those be largely transferable to some of the new products that you're now talking about introducing?

只是，埃隆，在去年的投資者日期間，您提到下一代汽車的每輛汽車銷售成本將比目前的 3 和 Y 下降 50%。其中約 1/3 來自未裝箱的製造過程。但我很好奇，如果您看到了一個機會，即圍繞動力總成成本降低或材料成本節省的其他一些驅動因素，這些機會是否可以在很大程度上轉移到您現在正在談論推出的一些新產品？

Yes, sure. I mean, in short, yes, I mean, like the unboxed manufacturing method is certainly great and revolutionary, but with it comes some risks because certain production lines are not, but all the subsystems we developed, whether it was powertrains, drive units, battery improvements in manufacturing and automation, thermal systems, seating, integration of interior components and reduction of LV controllers, all that's transferable, and that's what we're doing, trying to get it in their products as fast as possible. And so yes, that engineering work, we're not trying to just throw it away and put -- and cough and we're going to take it and utilize it and utilize it to the best advantage of the cars we make and the future cars we make.

是的，當然。我的意思是，簡而言之，是的，我的意思是，像拆箱製造方法當然是偉大和革命性的，但隨之而來的是一些風險，因為某些生產線不是，但我們開發的所有子系統，無論是動力總成、驅動單元，製造和自動化、熱系統、座椅、內部組件集成和低壓控制器減少方面的電池改進，所有這些都是可轉移的，這就是我們正在做的，試圖盡快將其應用到他們的產品中。所以，是的，對於工程工作，我們不會試圖把它扔掉並放置——咳嗽，我們將接受它並利用它，並利用它來最大限度地發揮我們製造的汽車和未來的優勢。的汽車。

Okay. Great. And then just on that topic of 4680 cells, I know you mentioned it, you really thought of it more as like a hedge against rising battery costs from other OEMs. But it seems even today, it seems like you would have a cost advantage against some of those other automakers. And I'm wondering, given the rationalizing of your vehicle manufacturing plans that you're talking about now, if there's an opportunity to maybe convert the 4680 cells and maybe sell those to other automakers and really generate an additional revenue stream, I'm just curious if you have any thoughts about that.

好的。偉大的。然後就 4680 電池這個主題，我知道您提到過，您確實認為它更像是對沖其他 OEM 電池成本上漲的對沖。但即使在今天，與其他一些汽車製造商相比，您似乎仍然具有成本優勢。我想知道，考慮到您現在正在談論的汽車製造計劃的合理化，是否有機會轉換 4680 電池並將其出售給其他汽車製造商並真正產生額外的收入來源，我只是好奇你對此有什麼想法嗎？

Great. What seems to be happening is that the -- unless I'm missing something, the orders for batteries from other automakers have declined dramatically. So we're seeing much more competitive prices for sales from our suppliers dramatically more competitive than in the past. It is clear that a lot of our suppliers have excess capacity.

偉大的。似乎正在發生的事情是——除非我遺漏了什麼，否則其他汽車製造商的電池訂單已經大幅下降。因此，我們看到供應商的銷售價格比過去更具競爭力。很明顯，我們的許多供應商產能過剩。

Yes. In addition to what Elon -- this is (inaudible). In addition to what Elon said about 4680, what 4680 did for us from a supply chain perspective was help us understand the supply chain that's upstream of our cell suppliers. So a lot of the deals that we had struck for 4680, we can also supply those materials to our partners, reducing the overall cost back to Tesla. So we're basically inserting ourselves in the upstream supply chain by doing that. So that's also been beneficial in reducing the overall pricing, in addition to the excess capacity that these suppliers have.

是的。除了埃隆之外——這是（聽不清楚）。除了 Elon 對 4680 的評估之外，4680 從供應鏈的角度為我們所做的就是幫助我們了解電池供應商上游的供應鏈。所以我們達成的許多4680的交易，我們也可以將這些材料供應給我們的合作夥伴，從​​而降低特斯拉的整體成本。因此，我們這樣做基本上就是將自己融入上游供應鏈。因此，除了這些供應商擁有的過剩產能之外，這也有利於降低整體定價。

Yes. No, I mean this is going to wax and wane, obviously. So there's going to be a boom and bust in battery cell production where production exceeds supply and then supply exceeds production and back and forth kind of like, I don't know, DRAM or something. But yes, so it's like what is true today will not be true in the future. There's going to be somewhat of a boom and bust cycle here. And then there are additional complications with government incentives like the Inflation Reduction Act, the IRA. Like a funny name. Yes, it is like Irish Republican Army, The Internet Research Agency from Russia.

是的。不，我的意思是，這顯然會盛衰。因此，電池生產將會出現繁榮和蕭條，產量超過供應，然後供應超過產量，如此反复，我不知道，DRAM 或其他什麼。但是，是的，所以今天的事實在未來就不再是事實了。這裡將會有某種程度的繁榮和蕭條週期。此外，政府的獎勵措施（例如《通貨膨脹削減法案》、愛爾蘭共和軍）也帶來了額外的複雜性。就像一個有趣的名字。是的，就像愛爾蘭共和軍、俄羅斯網路研究機構一樣。

Independent Retirement thing.

獨立退休的事情。

Yes, exactly. (inaudible) IRA. It's like forced vitamin situation, which IRA wins. But it is -- it complicates the incentive structure. So that is -- there's stronger demand for cells that are produced in the U.S. than outside the U.S. But then how long is the IRA lasts? I don't know.

對，就是這樣。 （聽不清楚）愛爾蘭共和軍。這就像強迫維生素的情況一樣，愛爾蘭共和軍贏了。但它確實使激勵結構變得複雜。也就是說，對美國生產的電池的需求比美國境外生產的電池更強勁。我不知道。

Which is why it's important that we have both (inaudible) cells and many cells hedged against all of this.

這就是為什麼我們必須擁有（聽不清楚）細胞和許多細胞來對沖所有這些，這一點很重要。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Thank you very much. That's all the time we have today. But at the same time, I would like to make a short announcement. And I wanted to let the investment community know that about a month ago, I met up with Elon and Vaibhav and announced that I'll be moving on from the world of Investor Relations.

好的。非常感謝。這就是我們今天的全部時間。但同時，我想宣布一個簡短的消息。我想讓投資界知道，大約一個月前，我會見了 Elon 和 Vaibhav，並宣布我將離開投資者關係領域。

I'll be hanging around for another couple of months or so. So feel free to reach out at any time. But after the 7-year sprint, I'm going to be taking a break and spending some good quality time with my family. And I wanted to say that these 7 years have been the greatest privilege of my professional life. I'll never forget the memories from I started literally at the beginning of production hell and just watching the company from the inside to see what it's become today. And I'm especially super thankful to the people in this room and dozens of people outside of this room that I've worked for over the years. I think the team's strength and teamwork at Tesla is unlike anything else I've seen in my career.

我還會再待幾個月左右。因此，請隨時與我們聯繫。但在 7 年的衝刺後，我將休息一下，與家人共度美好時光。我想說，這七年是我職業生涯中最大的榮幸。我永遠不會忘記我從生產地獄開始時的記憶，從內部觀察公司，看看它今天變成了什麼樣子。我特別非常感謝這個房間裡的人和我多年來工作過的幾十個房間外的人。我認為特斯拉團隊的實力和團隊合作與我職業生涯中見過的任何其他團隊都不一樣。

Elon, thank you very much for this opportunity that I got back in 2017. Thank you for seeking investor feedback and regularly and debating it with me.

Elon，非常感謝你在 2017 年給我這個機會。

Yes. Well, I mean the reason I reached out to you was because I thought your analysis of Tesla was the best that I had seen.

是的。嗯，我的意思是我聯繫你的原因是因為我認為你對特斯拉的分析是我見過的最好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, thank you for helping Tesla to get to where it is today over 7 years. It's been a pleasure working with you.

是的，感謝您在 7 年來幫助特斯拉取得今天的成就。很高興與您合作。

Thank you so much. And yes, thank you for all the thousands of shareholders that we've met over the years and walked around factories, and loved all the interactions, even the tough ones. And yes, looking forward to the call in the next 3 months, but I'll be on the other side, listening in. Thank you very much.

太感謝了。是的，感謝我們多年來遇到的所有數千名股東，並在工廠裡走來走去，並喜歡所有的互動，即使是艱難的互動。是的，期待未來 3 個月內的電話，但我會在另一邊傾聽。