特斯拉投資者關係主管 Travis Axelrod 歡迎參與者參加由 Elon Musk 和其他高管主持的 2024 年第三季度網路廣播。特斯拉實現了創紀錄的交付量和盈利能力,計劃在2025 年推出經濟實惠的車型,並在2026 年批量生產Cybercab。 。特斯拉的目標是透過專注於永續能源、交通、機器人和人工智慧,成為最有價值的公司。
第三季取得了正面的成果,重點是降低成本和提高效率。特斯拉正在推出電動 Semi 卡車,並專注於自動駕駛電動車。該公司正在進行特斯拉Roadster、Powerwall 3、增壓網路擴建和鋰精煉廠生產等各種項目。
Elon Musk 討論了高效推理計算對於 AI 以及與 xAI 合作的重要性。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Third Quarter 2024 Q&A Webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Vaibhav Taneja, and a number of other executives. Our Q3 results were announced at about 3:00 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as webcast.
大家下午好,歡迎收聽特斯拉 2024 年第三季問答網路直播。我叫特拉維斯·阿克塞爾羅德 (Travis Axelrod),是投資者關係主管,今天與我一起出席的還有埃隆·馬斯克 (Elon Musk)、瓦伊巴夫·塔內賈 (Vaibhav Taneja) 和其他一些高管。我們的第三季業績於美國中部時間下午 3 點左右在與網路廣播相同的連結中發布的更新報告中公佈。
During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions) Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?
在本次電話會議中,我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於多種風險和不確定因素,包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定因素,實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。(操作員指示)在我們進入問答環節之前,伊隆先講一些開場白。埃隆?
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Thank you. So to recap, as someone was saying, something that what the industry was seeing year-over-year declines in order volumes in Q3. Tesla at the same time has achieved record deliveries. In fact, I think if you look at EV companies worldwide, to the best of my knowledge, no EV company is even profitable. And I'm not -- to the best of my knowledge, there was no EV division of any company, of any existing car company that is profitable.
謝謝。所以,正如有人所說,產業第三季的訂單量較去年同期下降。同時,特斯拉的交付量也創下了紀錄。事實上,我認為如果你看看世界各地的電動車公司,據我所知,沒有一家電動車公司是獲利的。據我所知,沒有任何一家公司、任何一家現有的汽車公司的電動車部門獲利。
So it is notable that Tesla is profitable despite a very challenging automotive environment, and this quarter actually is a record Q3 for us. So we produced our seventh million vehicle actually just yesterday, so congratulations to the teams that made it happen in Tesla. That's staggering the immense amount of work to make 7 million cars. So you see, we all have -- the energy storage business is growing like wildfire with strong demand for both Megapack and Powerwall.
值得注意的是,儘管汽車產業環境充滿挑戰,特斯拉仍保持獲利,而本季實際上是我們創紀錄的第三季。事實上,就在昨天,我們生產了第七百萬輛汽車,祝賀特斯拉實現這一目標的團隊。生產 700 萬輛汽車所需的工作量之大令人震驚。所以你看,我們都知道——能源儲存業務正在像野火一樣成長,對 Megapack 和 Powerwall 的需求都很強勁。
And as you all know, on October 10, we laid out a vision for an autonomous and future that I think is very compelling that the Tesla team did a phenomenal job there with actually giving people an option to experience the future, where you have humanoid robots working among the craft, not with a canned video and a presentation or anything but walking among crowd, so he drinks and whatnot. And we had 50 autonomous vehicles. There were 20 Cybercabs, but there were an additional 30 Model Ys, operating fully autonomously the entire night, carrying thousands of people with no incidents the entire night.
眾所周知,10 月 10 日,我們提出了一個自動駕駛的未來願景,我認為這非常引人注目,特斯拉團隊在這方面做得非常出色,實際上為人們提供了體驗未來的選擇,在那裡,人形機器人可以在飛行器中工作,而不是通過錄製的視頻和演示或其他任何東西,而是在人群中行走,所以他可以喝酒等等。我們有 50 輛自動駕駛汽車。當時有 20 輛 Cybercab,但另外還有 30 輛 Model Y,整晚完全自動駕駛,載著數千人,整晚沒有發生任何事故。
And all those who went there that worth emphasizing that the Cybercab had no steering wheel or brake or accelerator panels, meaning there was no way for anyone to intervene manually a unit if they wanted to and the whole night went very smoothly.
所有去過那裡的人都值得強調的是,Cybercab 沒有方向盤、煞車或加速器面板,這意味著任何人都無法手動幹預車輛,所以整個晚上都非常順利。
So regarding the vehicle business, we are still on track to deliver our affordable models starting in the first half of 2025. This is -- I think probably people want should they assume for vehicle sales growth next year. And at the risk of -- to take a bit of risk here, I do want to give some rough estimate, which I think it's 20% to 30% vehicle growth next year. Notwithstanding negative external events, like if there's some force majeure events, like some big war breaks out or interest rates go sky high or something like that, we can't overcome massive force majeure events. But I think with our lower-cost vehicles with the advent of autonomy, something like a 20% to 30% growth next year is my best guess.
因此,就汽車業務而言,我們仍有望在 2025 年上半年開始推出經濟實惠的車型。這是——我想人們可能希望預測明年汽車銷量的成長。儘管要冒一點風險,但我確實想給出一些粗略的估計,我認為明年的汽車成長率將達到 20% 到 30%。儘管發生了一些負面的外部事件,例如如果發生一些不可抗力事件,例如爆發一些大戰爭或利率飆升或諸如此類的事情,我們都無法克服大規模的不可抗力事件。但我認為,隨著我們的低成本汽車和自動駕駛技術的出現,我猜測明年的成長率最好能達到 20% 到 30% 左右。
And then Cybercab reaching volume production in '26. I do feel confident of Cybercab reaching volume production in '26, just starting production, reaching volume production in '26. And that should be substantial. But we're aiming for at least 2 million units a year of Cybercab. That will be in more than one factory but I think it's at least 2 million units a year, maybe 4 million ultimately.
隨後 Cybercab 於 1926 年實現批量生產。我確實有信心 Cybercab 將在 26 年實現批量生產,剛開始生產,並將在 26 年實現批量生產。這應該是實質的。但我們的目標是每年至少銷售 200 萬輛 Cybercab。這將在多個工廠進行,但我認為每年至少有 200 萬台,最終可能達到 400 萬台。
So yeah, these are just my best guesses but if you ask me my best guesses, those are my best guesses. The cell 4680 lines, the team is actually doing great work there. The 4680 is rapidly approaching the point where it is the most competitive cell. So when you consider the fully landed -- the cost of a battery pack fully landed in the US, net of incentives and duties, 4680 is tracking to be the most competitive, maybe lower cost per kilowatt hour fully considered than any other alternative. We're not quite there yet but we're close to being there, which I think is extremely exciting. And we've got several -- a lot of ideas to go well beyond that.
是的,這些只是我最好的猜測,但如果你問我最好的猜測,那些就是我最好的猜測。在 4680 號細胞生產線上,團隊實際上在那裡做了出色的工作。4680 正在快速接近成為最具競爭力的電池的水平。因此,當您考慮完全登陸時 - 扣除獎勵和關稅後,電池組完全登陸美國的成本,4680 有望成為最具競爭力的,可能比任何其他替代方案的每千瓦時成本都更低。我們還沒有完全實現這個目標,但我們已經接近目標了,我認為這非常令人興奮。我們還有很多想法可以超越這一點。
So I think there's -- if we execute well, the 4680 -- we'll have the -- the Tesla internally produced cell will be the most cost competitive cell in North America, a testament to the tremendous amount of hard work there done by the team. So that's to say we'll continue to buy a lot of cells from our competitors. I tend not to -- to provide -- to make cells just internally. So I don't want to sort of here.
所以我認為——如果我們執行得好,4680——我們將擁有——特斯拉內部生產的電池將成為北美最具成本競爭力的電池,這證明了團隊在那裡所做的大量辛勤工作。也就是說,我們將繼續從競爭對手那裡購買大量電池。我傾向於不——提供——僅在內部製造細胞。所以我不想在這裡做這種事。
We're obviously increasing substantially our vehicle output and our stationary storage output, so we need a lot of cells. And most of them will still come from suppliers. But I think it is some good news that the Tesla internal cell is likely to be the most competitive in the US.
我們顯然正在大幅增加汽車產量和固定儲存產量,因此我們需要大量的電池。其中大部分仍將來自供應商。但我認為,特斯拉內部電池很可能在美國最具競爭力,這是一個好消息。
So with respect to autonomy, as people are experiencing in the cars really from week to week, there are significant improvements and the miles between interventions. So with the new version 12.5 release of (inaudible) and Cybertruck, combining the code into a single stack so that the city driving and the engine and highway driving are one stack, which is a big improvement for the highway driving. So it's just all neural nets. And the release of actually Smart -- we try to have a sense of humor here.
因此,就自主性而言,正如人們每週在汽車上所體驗到的那樣,汽車有了顯著的改進,而且幹預之間的距離也縮短了。因此,隨著 (聽不清楚) 和 Cybertruck 新版本 12.5 的發布,將程式碼合併為一個堆棧,以便城市駕駛、引擎和高速公路駕駛成為一個堆棧,這對於高速公路駕駛來說是一個很大的改進。所以它只是神經網路。實際上,在發布《Smart》時,我們試圖展現出一種幽默感。
And we're also -- so that's 12.5. Version 13 of FSD is going out soon. will elaborate more on that later in the call. We expect to see roughly a five or six-fold improvement in miles between interventions compared to 12.5. And actually, looking at the year as whole, the improvement in miles interventions, we think will be at least (inaudible) So that's a very dramatic improvement in the course of the year, and we expect that trend to continue next year.
而且我們還有──這是 12.5。 FSD 13 版本即將發布。稍後電話會議中我會對此進行更詳細的說明。我們預計幹預間隔英里數將比之前的12.5英里數提高約五到六倍。實際上,縱觀全年,我們認為幹預間隔英里數的改善至少會…(聽不清楚)。所以,這是今年非常顯著的改善,我們預計明年這一趨勢將持續下去。
So the current total expectation, internal expectation for the Tesla FSD having longer miles [intervention] human is the second quarter of next year, which means it may end up being in the third quarter but it's next -- it seems extremely likely to be next year. Ashok, do you want to?
因此,目前對特斯拉 FSD 更長里程的總體預期,內部預期是明年第二季度,這意味著它最終可能會在第三季度,但明年——似乎極有可能是明年。阿肖克,你想嗎?
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Yes, miles between critical interventions, mentioned by Elon already made 100x improvement with 12.5 from starting of this year and then with v13 release, we expect to be 1,000x from the beginning, from January of this year on production software. And this came in because of technology improvements going to end-to-end, having higher frame rate, partly also helped by hardware force, more capabilities, so on. And we hope that we continue to scale the neural network, the data, the training compute, et cetera. By Q2 next year, we should cross over the average, even in miles per critical intervention (inaudible) in that case.
是的,關鍵幹預措施之間相距甚遠,正如 Elon 所提到的,從今年年初開始,12.5 版本已經取得了 100 倍的改進,然後隨著 v13 的發布,我們預計從今年 1 月開始,在生產軟體上將取得 1,000 倍的改進。這是因為端到端的技術改進,具有更高的幀速率,部分也得益於硬體力量、更多功能等等。我們希望繼續擴展神經網路、數據、訓練計算等等。到明年第二季度,我們應該能夠超過平均水平,甚至達到每次關鍵幹預的英里數(聽不清楚)。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
I mean, that is just, unvarnished, our internal estimate.
我的意思是,這只是我們未經修飾的內部估計。
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Yes.
是的。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
So that's not sandbagging or anything else. Our internal estimate is Q2 of next year to be safer than human and then to continue with rapid improvements thereafter.
所以這不是沙袋或其他任何東西。我們的內部估計是明年第二季比人類更安全,然後繼續快速改善。
A vast majority of humanity has no idea that Tesla could drive themselves, so especially for something like a Model 3 or Model Y, it looks like a normal car. So you don't expect a normal car to be able to be intelligent enough to drive itself. A Cybercab looks different. A Cybertruck looks different, but Model Y and Model 3 are -- look, they're good-looking cars, but look at the fairly normal. You don't expect a fairly normal looking car to have the intelligence, enough AI to be able to drive itself. But it does.
絕大多數人並不知道特斯拉可以自動駕駛,所以尤其是像 Model 3 或 Model Y 這樣的車,它看起來就像一輛普通的車。所以你不要指望普通汽車能夠智慧到自動駕駛。Cybercab 看起來有所不同。Cybertruck 看起來有所不同,但 Model Y 和 Model 3 看起來,它們是好看的車,但看起來相當正常。你不會指望一輛看起來很普通的汽車擁有足夠的智慧和人工智慧來實現自動駕駛。但確實如此。
So we do want to expose that to more people, and so we're doing -- every time we have a significant improvement in the software, we'll roll out another sort of 30-day trial so to encourage people to try it again. And we are seeing a significant improvement in adoption. So the take rate for FSD has improved substantially, especially after the 10/10 event.
因此,我們確實希望向更多人展示這一點,我們也在這樣做——每當我們的軟體有重大改進時,我們都會推出另一種 30 天的試用版,以鼓勵人們再次嘗試。我們看到採用率有了顯著提高。因此,FSD 的接受率大幅提高,尤其是在 10/10 事件之後。
Yes, so there's no need to wait for robotaxi or Cybercab to experience full autonomy. We expect to achieve that next year with our existing vehicle line.
是的,所以不需要等待 robotaxi 或 Cybercab 來實現完全自動駕駛。我們希望明年透過現有的車輛生產線實現這一目標。
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
I wanted to actually someone gives a small taste of what it's going to look like, the car able to drive itself to the user within private parking lots. Currently, it's speed-limited but then it's going to quickly be increased. We actually have a million usage (inaudible)
我實際上想讓某人稍微體驗一下它的樣子,汽車能夠自行行駛到私人停車場內到達用戶手中。目前,速度受到限制,但很快就會提高。我們實際上有百萬次使用(聽不清楚)
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yes, and we actually -- we have for Tesla employees in the Bay Area, we already are offering ridehailing capabilities. So you can actually, with the development app, you can request a ride and it will take you anywhere in the Bay Area. We do have a safety driver for now but it's not required to do that. We've developed. And I mean, David, do you want to elaborate on that?
是的,實際上,我們已經為灣區的特斯拉員工提供了叫車服務。因此,實際上,您可以使用開發應用程式叫車,它會帶您前往灣區的任何地方。我們目前確實有安全駕駛員,但這不是必要的。我們已經發展了。我的意思是,大衛,你想詳細說明一下嗎?
David Lau - Vice President, Software Engineering
David Lau - Vice President, Software Engineering
Yes, sure. It's David. We showed some screenshots of this in the Q1 shareholder deck, and this is real. We've been testing it for the good part of the year. And the building blocks that we needed in order to build this functionality and deliver it to production, we've been thinking about working on for years.
是的,當然。是戴維。我們在第一季股東大會上展示了一些截圖,這是真的。我們今年大部分時間都在對其進行測試。為了構建此功能並將其投入生產,我們所需的構建模組,我們已經考慮了好幾年了。
It just so happens that we've used those building blocks to deliver great features for our customers in the meantime, such as sharing your profile, synchronizing it across cars, so that every single car that you jump into, whether it's another car that you own or a car that somebody has loaned to you or a rental car that you jump into, it looks exactly like yours. Everything synchronized, seat mirror positions, media, navigation, everything is the same, just what you would expect from one of our robotaxis.
恰好的是,我們同時使用這些構建模組為客戶提供了出色的功能,例如共享您的個人資料、在汽車之間同步,以便您乘坐的每一輛車,無論是您自己的另一輛車還是別人借給您的車或您乘坐的租車,它看起來都和您的一模一樣。一切都同步,座椅鏡子位置、媒體、導航,一切都相同,正是您對我們的自動駕駛計程車所期望的。
But we gave that functionality to our customers right now because we've built it intending for it to be used in the future, but we're releasing that functionality now. All the end-to-end cybersecurity that we knew we were going to need to deliver that functionality, sending a navigation destination from your phone to the vehicle. And so we're doing that now with the ridehailing app, but it's something that we've made available to customers for years.
但是我們現在將該功能提供給我們的客戶,因為我們建立它是為了將來使用,但我們現在就發布該功能。我們知道我們需要所有端到端的網路安全來實現該功能,將導航目的地從手機發送到車輛。所以我們現在透過叫車應用程式實現了這一點,但這是我們多年來一直向客戶提供的服務。
Seeing the progress on a route in the mobile app, that's something you'll need for the ridehailing app, but again, we released it in the meantime. So it's not like we're just starting to think about this stuff right now while we're building out the early stages of our ridehailing network. We've been thinking about this for quite a long time, and we're excited to get the functionality out there.
在行動應用程式中查看路線的進度,這是乘車應用程式所需的功能,但同樣,我們在此期間發布了它。因此,我們在建構叫車網路的早期階段時並不是才開始考慮這些事情。我們已經考慮這個問題很久了,我們很高興能夠實現這個功能。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yes. And we do expect to roll out ridehailing in California and Texas next year to the public. Now California is somewhere -- there's quite a long regulatory approval process. I think we should get approval next year but it's contingent upon regulatory approval. Texas is a lot faster so it's -- we'll definitely have available in Texas and probably have it available in California, subject to regulatory approval. And maybe some other states actually next year as well, but at least California and Texas.
是的。我們確實希望明年在加州和德克薩斯州向公眾推出叫車服務。現在加州的監管審批流程相當漫長。我認為我們應該在明年獲得批准,但這取決於監管部門的批准。德克薩斯州的速度要快得多,因此——我們肯定會在德克薩斯州提供服務,並且很可能會在加利福尼亞州提供服務,但需獲得監管部門的批准。明年也許其他一些州也會這樣做,但至少是加州和德克薩斯州。
So I think that would be very exciting. That's really a profound change. Tesla becomes more than a sort of vehicle and a battery manufacturing company at that point. So we published Q3 vehicle safety report, which shows one pack for every (inaudible) pilot that compressed the US average of crash roughly every 700,000 miles. So it's currently showing a 10x safety improvement relative to the US average. And we continue to expand our AI training capacity to accommodate the needs of both FSD and Optimus.
所以我認為這會非常令人興奮。這確實是一個深刻的改變。到那時,特斯拉就不再只是一家汽車和電池製造公司了。因此,我們發布了第三季車輛安全報告,其中顯示每位(聽不清楚)飛行員配備一個電池組,這相當於美國平均每 70 萬英里發生一次碰撞。因此,目前的安全性相對於美國平均值提高了 10 倍。我們將繼續擴大我們的人工智慧訓練能力,以滿足 FSD 和 Optimus 的需求。
We are currently not training compute constrained. It is probably the big limiting factors of the FSD is actually getting so good that it takes us a while to actually find mistakes. And when you start getting to where it can take 10,000 miles to find a mistake, it takes a while to actually figure out which it is -- is software A better than software B? It actually takes a while to figure it out because neither one of them makes the mistakes, would take a long time to make mistakes. So it's actually the single biggest limiting factor is how long does it take us to figure out which version is better? That is sort of a high-class problem.
我們目前沒有進行計算受限的訓練。這可能是 FSD 最大的限制因素,實際上它變得如此之好,以至於我們需要一段時間才能真正發現錯誤。當你開始需要走 10,000 英里才能發現一個錯誤時,需要花一段時間才能真正弄清楚它是什麼——軟體 A 是否比軟體 B 更好?實際上,要花一段時間才能弄清楚,因為他們倆都沒有犯錯誤,而且犯錯需要很長時間。所以實際上最大的限制因素是我們需要多長時間才能弄清楚哪個版本更好?這是一個高級問題。
Obviously, having a giant fleet is very helpful for breaking this out. And then with Optimus, we showed a mass improvement in Optimus exterior movement on October 10. And our next-gen which is 22 degrees freedom, which is double the prior and for. It's extremely human-like. And so it's much better at tactile sensing. I feel confident in saying that we have the most advanced humanoid robot by a long shot. And we're moreover the only company that really has all of the ingredients necessary to scale humanoid robots.
顯然,擁有一支龐大的艦隊對於突破這一困境非常有幫助。然後對於擎天柱,我們在 10 月 10 日展示了擎天柱外部運動的巨大改進。我們的下一代是 22 度自由度,是之前的兩倍。它極為像人類。因此它的觸覺感知能力更強。我可以自信地說,我們擁有最先進的人形機器人。而且我們是唯一一家真正擁有擴大人形機器人規模所需的所有要素的公司。
Because the things that what other companies are missing is that they're missing the AI brain, that they're missing people to really scale to very high-volume production. So you see some impressive video demos, but what like the localized AI and the volume to very high numbers. As I've said on a few occasions before, I think Optimus will ultimately be [most viable] part, so I think has a good chance of being the most viable product that we made.
因為其他公司缺少的是人工智慧大腦,缺乏能夠真正擴大到大量生產的人才。因此,您會看到一些令人印象深刻的視訊演示,但像本地化的人工智慧和音量非常高。正如我之前多次說過的,我認為 Optimus 最終將成為[最可行的]部分,因此我認為它很有可能成為我們製造的最可行的產品。
For the energy business, that's doing extremely well. And opportunity ahead is The Lathrop Megapack factory reached 200 Megapacks a week, which is now a 40 gigawatt hour a year run rate. And we have a second factory in Shanghai that will begin with the 20-gigawatt hour year run rate in Q1 next year, so next quarter. And that will also scale out. It won't be long before we're shipping 100 gigawatt hours a year stationary storage at Tesla. And that will ultimately grow, I think, to multiple terawatt hours per year. It has to actually in order to have a sustainable energy future. If you're not at the terawatt scale, you're not really moving the needle.
對於能源產業來說,這表現非常好。未來的機會是拉斯羅普 Megapack 工廠每週的產量達到 200 個 Megapack,現在的年運轉率為 40 千兆瓦時。我們在上海還有第二家工廠,將於明年第一季(也就是下個季度)開始以 20 千兆瓦時的年運轉率運作。而且這也會擴大。不久之後,我們每年將向特斯拉運送 100 千兆瓦時的固定儲存電量。我認為,這個數字最終將增長到每年數太瓦時。為了實現可持續的能源未來,必須這樣做。如果你沒有達到太瓦規模,那麼你就無法真正推動進展。
So if you look at our very complicated last master plan, which I think actually is too much detail, I'll maybe ask [Roan] to analyze it and give us the TLDR on the management plan. We shared in that master plan that it is possible to take all of us to a fully sustainable energy situation using sustainable energy, power generation and batteries and electric transport. And there were no fundamental material limitations, like there's not some very rare material that we don't have enough of. We actually have enough with raw materials to take all of human civilization, make it fully sustainable and dramatically increased its trust usage would still be fully sustainable.
因此,如果你看一下我們非常複雜的上一個總體規劃,我認為它實際上太詳細了,我可能會請 [Roan] 對其進行分析,並給我們提供管理計劃的 TLDR。我們在該總體規劃中一致認為,利用永續能源、發電、電池和電力運輸,我們所有人都可以實現完全可持續的能源狀況。而且不存在根本的物質限制,例如不存在某些我們沒有足夠的稀有物質。我們實際上擁有足夠的原材料來支撐整個人類文明,使其完全可持續,並且大幅增加其信任使用率仍將完全可持續。
One way to think of the progress of a civilization space a little esoteric but is percentage completion of at scale. So (inaudible) scale, one would be you're using all the power of a planet. We're currently less than 1% on Level 1. Level 2 would be using all the power of the sun, and Level 3, all of power of the galaxy so we've got a long way to go, long way to go.
思考文明空間進步的一種方式有點深奧,但就是按比例完成。所以(聽不清楚)規模,一個是你正在使用一個星球的所有能量。目前,我們的 1 級進度還不到 1%。第 2 級將使用太陽的所有能量,而第 3 級將使用銀河系的所有能量,所以我們還有很長的路要走,很長的路要走。
When you think in terms, it becomes obvious that by far, the biggest source of energy is the sun. Everything else is in the. So concluding, Tesla is focused on building the future of energy, transport, robotics and AI. And this is a time when others are just focused on managing around near-term trends. We think what we're doing is the right approach. And if we execute on our objectives, I think we will, my prediction is Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world and probably by a long shot.
當你這樣思考時,你會發現迄今為止最大的能源就是太陽。其餘一切都在。總而言之,特斯拉專注於打造能源、交通、機器人和人工智慧的未來。而此時其他人只關注管理近期趨勢。我們認為我們的做法是正確的。如果我們實現目標,我認為我們會的,我預測特斯拉將成為世界上最有價值的公司,而且可能遙遙領先。
I want to thank the Tesla team once again for strong execution in a tough operating environment, and we're looking forward to building an incredibly exciting future. Thank you.
我要再次感謝特斯拉團隊在艱難的營運環境中展現的強大執行力,我們期待創造一個令人興奮的未來。謝謝。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great. Thank you very much, Elon. And Vaibhav has some opening remarks as well.
偉大的。非常感謝,埃隆。Vaibhav 也發表了一些開場白。
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks. Our Q3 results were positive and once again demonstrate the scale to which the business has evolved or with generation of record operating cash flows of $6.3 billion. Our automotive revenues grew both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. While we had unit volume growth, we did experience a reduction in ASPs primarily due to the impact of financing incentives. As a reminder, we are providing these incentives primarily using third-party banks and financial institution and recognize the cost of these incentives as an upfront reduction to revenue.
謝謝。我們的第三季業績是正面的,再次證明了業務發展的規模,或創造了創紀錄的 63 億美元營運現金流。我們的汽車收入環比和年增長。雖然我們的單位銷售量有所成長,但平均售價卻有所下降,這主要是由於融資激勵的影響。提醒一下,我們主要透過第三方銀行和金融機構提供這些激勵措施,並將這些激勵措施的成本確認為收入的前期減少。
We released FSD for Cybertruck and other features like actually small [cell] like Elon talked about in North America, which contributed $326 million of revenues in the quarter. We continue to see elevated levels of revenue regulatory sales with over $2 billion of revenues so far this year. To expand on this at an industry level, China continues to outperform US and Europe by a factor of three. And if there is something to be learned from that, this gives a signal of what is to come in other regions. As customers' acceptance of EV growth, we feel that is the right strategy to build affordable and more compelling leads.
我們為 Cybertruck 發布了 FSD,以及其他功能,例如 Elon 談到的小型 [cell],這為本季度貢獻了 3.26 億美元的收入。我們繼續看到收入監管銷售水準的提高,今年迄今的收入已超過 20 億美元。從產業層面來看,中國的表現仍比美國和歐洲高出三倍。如果從中可以學到一些東西,那麼這將預示著其他地區將會發生什麼。隨著客戶對電動車接受度的成長,我們認為這是建立經濟實惠且更具吸引力的銷售線索的正確策略。
Our focus remains on growing unit volume while avoiding a buildup of inventory. To support this strategy, we're continuing to offer extremely compelling vehicle financing options. When you compare any vehicle in our lineup with other OEMs, we believe our vehicles provide much better value, particularly when you consider the safety features, performance, and unparalleled software functionalities, like David also talked about, include also what Ashok had talked about around autonomy, music options, parental controls, and much more.
我們的重點仍然是增加單位產量,同時避免庫存積壓。為了支持這項策略,我們將繼續提供極具吸引力的汽車融資選擇。當您將我們產品線中的任何車輛與其他 OEM 進行比較時,我們相信我們的車輛提供了更好的價值,特別是當您考慮到安全功能、性能和無與倫比的軟體功能時,就像 David 談到的,還包括 Ashok 談到的自主性、音樂選項、家長控制等等。
While every vehicle in our lineup comes up with these capabilities, there is an awareness gap not just with buyers but at times even with existing owners. We plan on making these more visible in our interactions with both existing and future customers. Automotive margins improved quarter-over-quarter as a result of a feature release discussed before. Increase in our overall production and delivery volume, benefit from the marketing pricing and more localized deliveries in region, which resulted in lower freight increase.
雖然我們產品線中的每款車型都具備這些功能,但不僅買家存在認知差距,有時甚至現有車主也存在認知差距。我們計劃在與現有和未來客戶的互動中更加明顯地體現這些。由於先前討論的功能發布,汽車利潤率環比提高。我們的整體生產和交付量增加,受益於行銷定價和區域內更在地化的交付,導致運費增幅較低。
Sustaining these margins in Q4, however, will be challenging, given the current economic environment. Note that we are focused on the cost per vehicle, and there are numerous work streams within the company to squeeze out cost without compromising on customer experience.
然而,考慮到當前的經濟環境,在第四季度維持這些利潤率將具有挑戰性。請注意,我們關注的是每輛車的成本,公司內部有許多工作流程來壓縮成本而不影響客戶體驗。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yes. I'm assuming that's a hopefully a helpful macro trend is if there's a decline in interest rates, this has a massive effect on the automotive demand because the vast majority of people is -- the demand is driven by the monthly payment. Can they afford monthly payment? So most likely, we'll see continue to decline in interest rates, which helps with affordability of vehicles.
是的。我認為這是一個有益的宏觀趨勢,如果利率下降,這將對汽車需求產生巨大影響,因為絕大多數人的需求是由每月付款驅動的。他們能負擔每月的還款嗎?因此,最有可能的是,我們將看到利率繼續下降,這有助於提高汽車的可負擔性。
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. I mean, that is one trend which we observed in the industry that because of the affordability being impacted because of interest rates, people are wanted the cars longer, especially in the US. And that is actually having an impact on the overall industry, too.
是的。我的意思是,這是我們在行業中觀察到的趨勢,由於利率影響了人們的購買力,人們對汽車的需求越來越大,尤其是在美國。這實際上也對整個行業產生了影響。
As we discussed earlier, as we discussed in back orders, energy deployments fluctuate quarter-on-quarter due to customer readiness, location of orders being fulfilled, and not necessarily an indicator of demand of production within the quarter.
正如我們之前在積壓訂單中所討論的那樣,能源部署會因客戶準備情況、訂單履行地點而逐季度波動,這並不一定是本季生產需求的指標。
While we did see a decline in Q3, we expect to grow deployment sequentially in Q4 to end the year with more than double of last year. Energy margins in Q3 were a record at more than 30%. This is a function of mix of projects being deployed in the quarter. Note that there will be fluctuation in margins as we manage through deployments and our inventory. Our pipeline and backlog continue to grow quarter-over-quarter as we fill our 2025 production slots, and we are doing our best to keep up with the demand.
雖然我們確實看到第三季的下降,但我們預計第四季的部署將連續成長,到年底將達到去年的兩倍以上。第三季能源利潤率創歷史新高,超過 30%。這是本季部署的專案組合的功能。請注意,由於我們透過部署和庫存進行管理,利潤率會出現波動。隨著我們填滿 2025 年的生產空檔,我們的管道和積壓訂單繼續逐季度增長,我們正在盡最大努力滿足需求。
Just coming back on automotive margins, I talked about what is happening, one other thing which I want to also share is that we're seeing that we will continue to keep whatever we can to, like I said before, about squeezing of the cost. But this is something which we also are very capable of. I mean, just in Q3, we faced our lowest cost per vehicle, and that is a trend which we want to keep focused on.
回到汽車利潤率的問題上,我談到了正在發生的事情,我還想分享的另一件事是,我們看到我們將繼續盡一切努力,就像我之前說的那樣,壓縮成本。但這也是我們非常有能力做到的。我的意思是,就在第三季度,我們面臨每輛車成本最低的問題,而這正是我們希望繼續關注的趨勢。
Then going on to service and other, we continue to show improvements in Q3. This was a result of better performance, both in our service as well as it includes collision, part sales, and merchandise, and continued growth in supercharging. These fee-based revenues will continue to grow as the overall fleet size increases. Our operating expenses declined quarter-over-quarter and on year-on-year basis. This is partially due to the restructuring we undertook in Q2. Cost savings from these initiatives were partially offset by increase in costs related to our AI efforts.
然後談到服務和其他方面,我們在第三季繼續顯示出改善。這是由於我們的服務以及碰撞、零件銷售和商品方面表現更好,並且增壓業務持續成長。隨著整體船隊規模的擴大,這些收費收入將持續成長。我們的營運費用較上季和年比均有所下降。這部分是由於我們在第二季進行的重組。這些措施帶來的成本節省被我們人工智慧工作相關成本的增加部分抵銷。
We've started using the GPU cluster based out of our factory house and ahead of schedule and are on track to get 50,000 GPUs deployed in Texas by the end of this month. One thing which I'd like to elaborate is that we're being really judicious on our AI compute spend to and saying how best we can utilize the existing infrastructure before making further investments. On the CapEx front, we had about $3.5 billion in the quarter. This was a sequential increase largely because of investments in AI compute. We now expect our CapEx for the year to be in excess of $11 billion.
我們已提前開始使用基於工廠的 GPU 集群,並預計在本月底在德克薩斯州部署 50,000 個 GPU。我想詳細說明的一件事是,我們在人工智慧運算支出方面非常謹慎,在進行進一步投資之前,我們會考慮如何最好地利用現有的基礎設施。在資本支出方面,本季我們的支出約為 35 億美元。這是一個連續的成長,主要是因為對人工智慧運算的投資。我們現在預計今年的資本支出將超過 110 億美元。
We shared our vision for the future at the We, Robot event at the beginning of the month. The Tesla team is hyper-focused on delivering on that vision. All efforts are underway to make it a reality. While we've achieved significant progress this year, it will take time to get this as we find new and incredibly complex technologies and navigate a fragmented regulatory landscape. The future is incredibly bright, and I want to thank the Tesla team once again for all their help.
我們在本月初的「We, Robot」活動上分享了我們對未來的願景。特斯拉團隊高度專注於實現這一願景。我們正在盡一切努力使之成為現實。雖然我們今年取得了重大進展,但由於我們面臨新的、極其複雜的技術,並需要應對分散的監管環境,因此需要時間來實現這一目標。未來無比光明,我要再次感謝特斯拉團隊的所有幫助。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great. Thank you very much, Vaibhav. Now we'll go to investor questions. The first one is, is Tesla still on track to deliver the more affordable model next year as mentioned by Elon earlier? And how does it align with your AI and product road map?
偉大的。非常感謝,Vaibhav。現在我們來回答投資人的問題。第一個問題是,特斯拉是否仍將按照伊隆先前提到的計畫在明年推出更實惠的車型?它與您的 AI 和產品路線圖如何保持一致?
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Sure. I mean, as Elon and Vaibhav both said, we are on plan to meet that in the first half of next year. Ambition has always been to lower the cost of our vehicles to increase the adoption of sustainable energy and transport. Part of that is lowering the cost of our current vehicles, which is where all of the personally-owned vehicles that we sell today come in. But the next stage in that, really as it fits into AI road map, is well as we bring in robotaxis, which lowers the initial cost of getting into an EV, and that's really where we see the marriage of EV road map and the AI road map.
當然。我的意思是,正如 Elon 和 Vaibhav 所說,我們計劃在明年上半年實現這一目標。我們的目標一直是降低車輛成本,以增加永續能源和交通的採用。其中一部分是降低我們現有車輛的成本,這也是我們今天銷售的所有私人車輛的來源。但下一階段,它確實符合人工智慧路線圖,我們引入了自動駕駛計程車,這降低了進入電動車的初始成本,這就是我們看到的電動車路線圖和人工智慧路線圖的結合。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yes. It will be like with incentive [sub 30,000], which is kind of a key threshold.
是的。這就像激勵措施 [30,000 以下],這是一個關鍵門檻。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great. Thank you very much. Similar question next, when can we expect Tesla to give us the $25,000 non-robotaxi regular car model?
偉大的。非常感謝。接下來是類似的問題,我們什麼時候可以期待特斯拉為我們提供售價 25,000 美元的非機器人出租車普通車型?
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
We're not breaking it on --
我們不會打破它--
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Yes, all our vehicles today --
是的,今天我們所有的車輛--
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
So I think we've made very clear that we're -- the future is autonomous. I mean, it's going to be -- I've actually said this many years ago, but that in my strong belief and I believe that is panning out to be true, very obvious retrospect is that the future is autonomous electric vehicles. And non-autonomous gasoline vehicles here will be like riding a horse and using a foot bone. It's not that there are no horses, yeah, there are some but they're unusual. They're niche.
所以我認為我們已經非常明確地表明,未來是自主的。我的意思是,這將是——我實際上很多年前就說過這個,但我堅信,而且我相信這個事實正在成為現實,回想起來,非常明顯的是,未來是自動駕駛電動汽車的天下。而這裡的非自動駕駛汽油車就像騎馬一樣,需要用到腳骨。並不是說沒有馬,是的,有一些,但它們很不尋常。他們是小眾的。
And so everything is going to be electric autonomous. I think this is like it should be, frankly, blindingly obvious at this point, that is the future. So a lot of automotive companies, most of the companies have not internalized this, which is surprising because we're shouting from the rooftops for such a long time. And it will accrue to their detriments in the future. But all of our vehicles in the future will be autonomous.
所以一切都將實現電動自動化。我認為這應該是這樣的,坦白說,目前顯而易見的是,這就是未來。因此,許多汽車公司,大多數公司都沒有將這一點內化,這令人驚訝,因為我們已經大聲疾呼了很長時間。並且,這種損害會在未來逐漸累積。但未來我們所有的車輛都將實現自動駕駛。
Yes. So all the vehicles that we've really made, almost 7 million vehicles, the vast majority are capable of autonomy. And we're currently making on the order of 35,000 autonomous vehicles a week to say Waymo's entire fleet is less than -- they've less than 1,000 corners. We're making 35,000 a week.
是的。因此,我們實際生產的所有汽車(近 700 萬輛)絕大多數都具備自動駕駛能力。我們目前每週生產約 35,000 輛自動駕駛汽車,而 Waymo 的整個車隊的角落還不到 1,000 個。我們每週賺35,000。
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Yes. And our cars look normal.
是的。我們的車看起來很正常。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yes, they mostly look normal. The Cybertruck looks abnormal. And the Cybercab, robotaxi, we wanted to have something futuristic looking, and I think it does look futuristic.
是的,他們大多看起來很正常。Cybertruck 看上去很不正常。對於 Cybercab(機器人出租車),我們想要一些具有未來感的東西,我認為它確實看起來很有未來感。
It's worth going with respect to the Cybercab, it's not -- it's especially not just a revolutionary vehicle design but a revolution in vehicle manufacturing that was also coming with the Cybercab. The cycle times like the units per hour of the Cybercab line, it is -- like this is just really something special. I mean, this is (inaudible) of than other car manufacturing lines, like -- not even the same league is what I'm saying, not in the same league. And I said like several years ago that maybe the most -- the hottest Tesla be the battery, just like by a factory.
就 Cybercab 而言,它值得關注,它不僅僅是一種革命性的汽車設計,也是 Cybercab 所帶來的汽車製造業的一場革命。循環時間就像 Cybercab 線路每小時的單位數一樣,這真的很特別。我的意思是,這(聽不清楚)與其他汽車生產線相比——甚至不是同一個級別,我說的是,不在同一個級別。幾年前我就說過,也許最熱門的特斯拉產品是電池,就像工廠生產的那樣。
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Yes, can't reverse engineering factory.
是的,無法對工廠進行逆向工程。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yes. It's like -- so we're rapidly evolving our manufacturing technology. So anyway, basically, I think having a regular $25,000 model is pointless. It would be silly, like completely at odds with what we believe.
是的。就像——我們正在快速發展我們的製造技術。所以無論如何,基本上,我認為擁有一個普通的 25,000 美元的模型是沒有意義的。這很愚蠢,與我們的信仰完全相違背。
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
In autonomous world, what matters is lowest cost per mile of efficiency of that vehicle. And that's what we've done with the robotaxi.
在自動駕駛世界中,重要的是車輛每英里的最低成本和效率。這就是我們對自動駕駛計程車所做的。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Exactly. It's fully considered cost per mile is what matters. And if you try to make a car that is essentially a hybrid, manual, automatic car, it's not going to be as good as a dedicated autonomous car. So yes, Cybercab is just not going to have stairwells and you design optimize for autonomous. It will cost on the order of cost roughly $25,000, so it is a $25,000 car. You can, you will be able to buy one exclusively if you want.
確切地。充分考慮每英里的成本才是最重要的。如果你嘗試製造一輛本質上是混合動力、手動、自動的汽車,它就不會像專用的自動駕駛汽車那麼好。所以是的,Cybercab 不會設有樓梯間,並且您的設計針對自動駕駛進行了最佳化。它的價格約為 25,000 美元,所以它是一輛價值 25,000 美元的汽車。可以,只要你願意,你就可以單獨購買一個。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great. The next question is, what is Tesla doing to alleviate long wait times at service centers?
偉大的。下一個問題是,特斯拉正在採取什麼措施來緩解服務中心的長時間等待?
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
So we aim on solving problems at the source so at the factory before they can even affect our customers. We believe the best service is no service. And really don't even --
因此,我們致力於從源頭解決問題,即在工廠解決問題,以免影響到我們的客戶。我們相信最好的服務就是沒有服務。甚至沒有--
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
The car doesn't break, that's the best thing.
車子沒壞,這是最好的事。
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Don't see what the test you get to do to fix the issue upstream or you would remotely do through software, maybe at work or at home car we park. And we've addressed the fixed issue. And we've partnered the field with service to make sure we're looking at the same issues. And additionally, just in Q2 and Q4 of this year alone, we have opened and will open in total of nearly 70 locations. And in North America, we significantly expand the size of each location and have doubled the size last year compared to this year.
不知道您需要進行什麼測試才能解決上游問題,或者您可以透過軟體遠端執行此操作,也許是在工作場所或我們停放的家中汽車中。我們已經解決了該問題。並且我們已經與服務領域建立了合作夥伴關係,以確保我們關注的是同樣的問題。此外,僅在今年第二季和第四季度,我們就已開設並即將開設近 70 家門市。在北美,我們大幅擴大了每個地點的規模,去年的規模比今年擴大了一倍。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yeah. I think it was like actually a lot of merit of having large service centers because you can have specialization of labor. You can start your approach. Yes, it should be more factory-like where you can have dedicated lanes for particular types of service. And it's way easier for somebody to become expert in a few different types of repairs than in every repair.
是的。我認為擁有大型服務中心實際上有很多好處,因為可以實現勞動力的專業化。您可以開始您的方法。是的,它應該更像工廠,可以為特定類型的服務設置專用通道。對於一個人來說,成為幾種不同類型的維修專家要比成為每種維修專家容易得多。
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Exactly. This has helped us with the base that the heavy repairs, like, the dedicated lanes for different type of repairs. And so it's through really treating it like a factory.
確切地。這為我們處理重型維修工作奠定了基礎,例如為不同類型的維修設立專用車道。所以這實際上是把它當成一個工廠。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yeah. This is where a Tesla structure, I think, a strong advantage relative to the rest of the auto industry because we make the cars and we service the cars, whereas I think there's a bit of a conflict of interest with the dealer model and the traditional OEM and dealer model where the dealerships make most of their money on service. And so they don't -- they obviously assistance to reduce the servicing cost, whereas in our case, we are incented to reduce the service and cost because we carry that servicing cost. And we've got a good feedback with our cars.
是的。我認為,這就是特斯拉結構相對於其他汽車行業的強大優勢所在,因為我們製造汽車並為汽車提供服務,而我認為經銷商模式與傳統的 OEM 和經銷商模式之間存在一些利益衝突,在這種模式下,經銷商的大部分收入來自服務。因此他們不會——他們顯然會幫助降低服務成本,而在我們的情況下,我們會受到激勵去降低服務和成本,因為我們承擔了服務成本。我們的汽車獲得了良好的回饋。
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Yes. With the factory, with the service leaders together, it's sent people from the factors that feel you feel for the factory to see it firsthand by suggestions for manufacturing as well as for engineering on design.
是的。透過與工廠、服務領導的合作,我們可以派人從各個角度親自了解工廠,並針對製造和工程設計提出建議。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yes. So I view this as a structural -- a fundamental structural advantage of Tesla versus the rest of the auto industry.
是的。所以我認為這是特斯拉相對於其他汽車產業的結構性優勢——根本的結構性優勢。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Must do a bunch of work on the software side to omni diagnostics, identifying what needs to be done to before it comes into service, but also automating all of the preparation work and aligning all the resources that are necessary in order for the car be very efficiently worked on once it arrives.
必須在軟體方面做大量的工作來進行全方位診斷,確定在投入使用之前需要做什麼,同時還要自動化所有的準備工作,並協調所有必要的資源,以便汽車到達後能夠非常有效地工作。
Certain parts are there like (multiple speakers)
某些部分就像(多位發言者)
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
This is what's wrong me and tells the service centre -- please fix me, and this is what is wrong.
這就是我的錯誤,並告訴服務中心——請修理我,這就是錯誤。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Instead a customer trying to translate, the car is telling us directly and we're pulling that.
無需客戶嘗試翻譯,汽車會直接告訴我們,然後我們就會照做。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yes, most the time, you don't need to diagnose the car when it arrives. The car -- this is like, again, a fundamental technology advantage and structural advantage compared to the rest of the auto industry.
是的,大多數情況下,您不需要在汽車到達時進行診斷。汽車-與汽車產業的其他部分相比,這又是一種根本的技術優勢和結構優勢。
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
I think it's underappreciated as to what all we are able to do. And that's why -- because like I said before, most of our cars, except for Cybertruck, look the same so people don't realize that it has so much capability.
我認為我們所能做的一切都沒有得到充分重視。這就是為什麼——就像我之前說的,除了 Cybertruck 之外,我們的大多數汽車看起來都一樣,所以人們沒有意識到它有如此強大的功能。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Better than other cars, but they're not like obviously super futuristic.
比其他汽車更好,但它們並不明顯具有超級未來感。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great. Thanks very much. The next question is, please provide an update on the semi. What will the next stage growth look like and when will ready?
偉大的。非常感謝。下一個問題是,請提供有關半決賽的最新情況。下一階段的成長將會是什麼樣的呢?什麼時候準備好?
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Sure. So as you -- we posted an earnings, we're progressing something on the build of the Semi factory our data factory in Reno. We've released all our major cash flow expenditures for that program, and we're on track to start pilot builds in the second half of next year with production starting in the first half of 2026 and ramping really throughout the year to full production. Semi growth will largely depend on our customers' adoption of the product.
當然。因此,正如您所知 - 我們發布了收益,我們正在裡諾的 Semi 工廠(數據工廠)的建設中取得一些進展。我們已經公佈了該計劃的所有主要現金流支出,並且預計在明年下半年開始試點建設,並於 2026 年上半年開始生產,並在全年逐步實現全面生產。半成長很大程度上取決於我們的客戶對該產品的採用。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Well, I don't think we're going to be limited.
嗯,我認為我們不會受到限制。
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Yes, what a which is like semi because it's really a commodity of total cost of --
是的,這就像半成品,因為它真的是一種商品,總成本--
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yes, exactly. We have kind of ridiculous demand for the Semi.
是的,確實如此。我們對 Semi 的需求有點荒謬。
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
In that where it's about how much do I spend to testing per mile. It's a no-brainer.
其中涉及的是每英里測試需要花費多少錢。這是毫無疑問的。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yeah. Fundamentally, if you've got a Semi, the fully considered cost per mile per ton of transport is better than a diesel truck. Any company that doesn't adopt an electric semi will lose. It's not a subjective thing. It's like whether you like competitive we want the stat we want to have a good old semi truck. But frankly, if we made an would it matter?
是的。從根本上來說,如果你有一輛半掛卡車,那麼每英里每噸運輸的全面成本要比柴油卡車要好。任何不採用電動半掛卡車的公司都會失敗。這不是一件主觀的事。就像無論您是否喜歡競爭,我們都想要統計數據,我們想要擁有一輛優質的老式半掛卡車。但坦白說,如果我們做了,這有關係嗎?
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
And this is proving so in our fleets and Pespsi, partner. In fact, Pepsi you actually said last week that their drivers don't want to go back.
我們的車隊和合作夥伴百事可樂已經證明了這一點。事實上,百事可樂上週就說過,他們的司機不想回去。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
As soon as we gave anyone at the electric Semi, that's like the choice.
一旦我們給任何人電動拖車,這就像是選擇。
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
It is what they want to drive.
這正是他們想要推動的。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yes, yes. That's like -- so the more senior, like they're top drivers. Well, they get to drive a Tesla Semi. It's the thing they want to drive. It's super fun to drive.
是的,是的。那就像——越資深,他們就越是頂級車手。好吧,他們可以駕駛特斯拉拖車。這是他們想要駕駛的東西。駕駛起來非常有趣。
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
It's also very easy to drive.
駕駛起來也非常容易。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
It's easy to drive and it's like fast.
它駕駛起來很容易,而且速度很快。
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Super fast, maybe too fast.
超快,也許太快了。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Well, but I mean like you've seen like the videos that were like the like, some like can you uphill here as speeding fast like the diesel truck. Yeah, in cars. So like it's responsive. You floor it, and the truck actually.
嗯,但我的意思是,就像你看到的那些影片一樣,有些影片就像你能像柴油卡車一樣快速上坡一樣。是的,在汽車裡。所以它有響應。你踩下油門,實際上卡車也是。
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
And that's a benefit only for the driver and for the goods, but also for safety in terms of other drivers on the road. You don't get stuck behind the Semi, you're not like in a slowdown situation in the I mean how that plays into FSD, which is the second part of the question, all of this is have been a couple of hundred we've deployed already and the ones that we'll be building next year and throughout the future, how all of the hardware and the camera is necessary to deploy FSD, and we're currently training with that small we have. And as soon as the fleet is trained and the neural that there up, we'll get FSD onto that platform.
這不僅對司機和貨物有利,而且對道路上其他司機的安全也有利。你不會被困在半掛車後面,也不會像在減速的情況下那樣,我的意思是這對 FSD 有何影響,這是問題的第二部分,所有這些都是我們已經部署的幾百個,以及我們明年和未來將要建造的那些,所有硬體和攝影機對於部署 FSD 都是必要的,我們目前正在用我們擁有的那一小部分進行訓練。一旦車隊訓練完畢、神經系統建立完畢,我們就會將 FSD 放到這個平台上。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yeah. I mean there would be a mass improvement in driver fatigue because and driver safety. We've got sort of the anti-jack knifing software. You don't have to worry about your brakes overheating if you go down a steep hill because we generating that energy goes back and into the pack. (multiple speakers) it's like radically better than a diesel is what the drivers love it.
是的。我的意思是,駕駛疲勞問題將會大大改善,駕駛安全也會大大改善。我們有一種防劫持軟體。如果您從陡峭的山坡上下坡,您不必擔心煞車過熱,因為我們產生的能量會回到電池組。 (多個演講者)它比柴油機好得多,這就是司機喜歡它的原因。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great, guys. Thanks very much. Our next question is when will Tesla incorporate X and Grok in all Tesla vehicles?
太棒了,夥計們。非常感謝。我們的下一個問題是特斯拉何時會將 X 和 Grok 融入所有特斯拉汽車中?
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
I mean, these are relatively small things. But yes, I think we'll keep expanding what is available in the car on the screen. And also improving like the browser so like just generally, you can access anything you want in the car. In fact, for the Tesla, once you get to full autonomy, you actually want fully a system that is -- can do anything.
我的意思是,這些都是相對較小的事情。但是是的,我認為我們會繼續擴展汽車螢幕上可用的功能。並且瀏覽器也得到了改進,因此一般來說,您可以在車內存取任何您想要的內容。事實上,對於特斯拉來說,一旦實現了完全自動駕駛,你實際上想要的是一個可以做任何事情的系統。
Like if you want to browse the Internet, if you want to ask AI questions, if you want to watch a movie, if you want to play a video game, if you wanted to do some productivity thing, you can do anything you want in an autonomous vehicle because you don't need to drive. So that's why the Cybercab's got a nice big screen and a great sound system. So you can watch it, watch you're moving with. It's like being in a personal movie theater. [Dawson]
例如,如果你想瀏覽互聯網,如果你想問人工智慧問題,如果你想看電影,如果你想玩電子遊戲,如果你想做一些有效率的事情,你可以在自動駕駛汽車上做任何你想做的事情,因為你不需要駕駛。這就是為什麼 Cybercab 配備了一個漂亮的大螢幕和一套出色的音響系統。所以你可以觀察它,觀察你的移動。就像身處私人電影院。[道森]
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Yes, this is why we've been building this functionality. I think gaming to the car, adding and other -- all sorts of different media applications of the car because that's what you're going to -- that's yes, the cars that will be built today.
是的,這就是我們建立此功能的原因。我認為將遊戲融入汽車,添加其他——各種不同的汽車媒體應用程序,因為這就是你要做的——是的,這就是今天將要製造的汽車。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Fun games, by the way, people haven't tried it. There's like Castle and Polatopia and a bunch of really fun games in the car.
順便說一句,有趣的遊戲,人們還沒有嘗試過。車上有像《城堡》和《波拉托比亞》這樣的許多非常有趣的遊戲。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
We're constantly looking at what features to add next and we're paying attention to what's most commonly requested by our customers.
我們一直在尋找下一步要新增的功能,並且我們專注於客戶最常見的要求。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yeah. (inaudible)
是的。(聽不清楚)
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great. The next question is, Elon mentioned unsupervised FSD in California and Texas next year. Does that mean regulators have agreed to it in the entire state for existing hardware 3 and 4 vehicles?
偉大的。下一個問題是,埃隆提到明年將在加州和德克薩斯州推出無人監督的 FSD。這是否意味著監管機構已經同意在全州範圍內對現有的 3 號和 4 號硬體車輛實施這項措施?
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
As I said earlier, California loves regulation.
正如我之前所說,加州喜歡監管。
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
But they have a pathway.
但他們有一條路。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yes. I mean, there's a pathway. Obviously, Waymo operates in California so there's just a lot of forms and a lot of approvals that are required. I mean, I'd be shocked if we don't get approved next year, but it's just not something we totally control. But I think we will get approval next year in California and Texas. And towards the Bay Area, branch out beyond California and Texas.
是的。我的意思是,有一條路。顯然,Waymo 在加州運營,因此需要填寫大量表格並獲得大量批准。我的意思是,如果我們明年沒有獲得批准,我會感到震驚,但這不是我們完全能夠控制的事情。但我認為明年我們將在加利福尼亞州和德克薩斯州獲得批准。並向灣區擴展,超越加利福尼亞州和德克薩斯州。
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
I mean, I think it's important to reiterate this like on our certifying a vehicle at the federal level in the US is done by meeting FMVSS regulations. Our vehicles today that are produced there capable to meet all those regulations, the Cybercab regulations. And so the deployment of the vehicle to the road is no limitation, but its limitation is what you said at the state level where they control autonomous vehicle deployment.
我的意思是,我認為重申這一點很重要,就像我們在美國聯邦層級的認證車輛是透過滿足 FMVSS 法規來完成一樣。我們今天在那裡生產的車輛能夠滿足所有這些規定,即 Cybercab 規定。因此,車輛在道路上的部署沒有限制,但它的限制就是你所說的在州一級控制自動駕駛汽車部署的限制。
Some states are relatively easy, as you mentioned, for Texas. It's other ones have always like California that may take a little longer. The other ones hadn't set up anything yet. And so we will work on those state by state in the.
正如您所說,有些州的情況相對容易,例如德克薩斯州。其他國家,例如加利福尼亞州,可能需要更長的時間。其餘的還未設定任何東西。因此,我們將逐州開展工作。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
I do think we should have a federal. Like autonomous vehicles should be approved. It should be possible to.
我確實認為我們應該有一個聯邦。就像自動駕駛汽車應該得到批准一樣。應該是可以的。
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Congress, if you're listening, let's get the federal AV --
國會,如果你在聽的話,讓我們獲得聯邦 AV--
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
There should be a federal approval process for autonomous vehicles.
應該有一個針對自動駕駛汽車的聯邦審批程序。
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Yeah, in 2017, I think we -- the regulators started looking at it (inaudible) but we would appreciate helping out.
是的,我想在 2017 年我們——監管機構開始關注這個問題(聽不清楚),但我們很樂意提供協助。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
It really needs to be like a national approval is important. There's a partner of government efficiency, I'll try to help make that moving. And it took for every one, not just Tesla. But just like some things in the US. are state-by-state regulated like, for example, insurance, like incredibly to do it state by state for 50 states. And I think we should have this national approval process for autonomy.
它確實需要像國家批准那樣重要。有一個政府效率的合作夥伴,我會盡力幫忙推動這項進程。每個人都需要這樣做,而不僅僅是特斯拉。但就像美國的某些事物一樣,是由各州分別進行監管的,例如保險,令人難以置信的是,50 個州都是逐州進行監管的。我認為我們應該有這個全國性的自治審批程序。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great, thanks, guys. The next question is, what is the plan for 2025?
太好了,謝謝大家。接下來的問題是,2025年的計畫是什麼?
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
I mean, basically, we talked through this. There's a lot going on. Elon already mentioned that we're working on cheaper models to come out. I mean, there are work which the team is doing to get the factories ready today to try and make that happen on.
我的意思是,基本上,我們已經討論過這個問題了。有很多事情發生。伊隆已經提到我們正在研發更便宜的車款。我的意思是,團隊今天正在努力讓工廠做好準備,並努力實現這一目標。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yeah. the amount of work required we're required to make a lower-cost car is insanely high. But like it is harder to get like 20% of the cost out of a car than it is to design the car and build an entire factory in the first place. It's like excruciating. And there's not a lot of movies made about the heroes who got 20% of the cost out of a car. But let me tell you there should be.
是的。製造低成本汽車所需的工作量非常大。但從汽車中節省 20% 的成本比設計汽車和建造整個工廠要困難得多。這就像極其痛苦一樣。而且,很少有電影講述那些從汽車中賺取 20% 成本的英雄。但讓我告訴你應該有。
Whoever can cut that is incredibly your own. (multiple speakers) Yeah, it's like there should be the heroes go 20% cost out of the cars, like respect to them. moving. I think you only could make a compelling movie, but it just -- like if you actually saw are, if people actually saw our heart was to do that, you'd be like, wow, that's.
誰能剪斷它,那絕對是你自己的。(多位發言者)是的,就像應該讓英雄們承擔 20% 的汽車成本一樣,以此來表達對他們的尊重。令人感動。我認為你只能製作一部引人入勝的電影,但它只是——就像如果你真的看到了,如果人們真的看到了我們的心意,你會說,哇,就是這樣。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Just yesterday, we were talking about it.
就在昨天,我們還在談論這件事。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Honestly, literally, I mean, there's a lot of -- when I do go sort of like getting cost out things is kind of like -- it's like a Game of Thrones, but penny, so it's like, bu pennies. First approximation, if you're about 10,000 items in a car, very rough approximation. And each of them cost $4, then you have a $40,000 car. So do you want to make a $35,000 car, you're going to get $0.50 on average out of the 10,000 items.
老實說,從字面上看,我的意思是,有很多——當我確實去獲得成本時,就像——就像權力的遊戲,但是一分錢,所以就像,一分錢。第一個近似值,如果一輛車上有大約 10,000 件物品,這是一個非常粗略的近似值。每輛售價 4 美元,那麼你就擁有了一輛價值 4 萬美元的汽車。那麼,如果你想製造一輛價值 35,000 美元的汽車,那麼從 10,000 件物品中,你平均可以獲得 0.50 美元。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Every time, every part.
每次,每個部分。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yeah. It's like -- and then obviously, the best is to lead some parts. The able to leave a lot of parts. I'm very excited about the Cybercab design and the -- how we're rethinking the design of a car from the Cybercab. Designing it while also have volume production and then design a machine that the machine that I think is also revolutionary. And it's just -- there's no other car company that's even trying to do what we're doing, like uneven heard of actually. In fact, I'm certain there isn't one.
是的。就像——顯然,最好的方法是領導一些部分。能夠留下很多部分。我對 Cybercab 的設計感到非常興奮,而且我們正在從 Cybercab 重新思考汽車的設計。在設計的同時進行量產,然後設計出一款我認為也是革命性的機器。事實上,沒有其他汽車公司嘗試做我們正在做的事情,就像我們聽說過的那樣。事實上,我確信沒有。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Cycle time and like part deletion. I don't think any other car company has the same level of like integration of thought that we have when it comes to like when you design a part from a paper, who's going to make it? Where is it going to be made? How is it going to be shipped? How is it going to be assembled into the vehicle?
循環時間和類似部件刪除。我認為沒有其他汽車公司具有與我們相同的思想整合水平,例如當你根據紙面數據設計一個零件時,誰來製造它?它將在哪裡生產?它將如何運送?它將如何組裝到車輛上?
At any one point if something is done in the silo, it becomes a bottleneck of either cost or time or efficiency, but with the robotaxi development, like we've done a good job on the combining all that and then like blowing up how it's made and saying it should be made this way and rethinking it also that it's the most efficient factory possible. That shows our -- it will see our CapEx efficiency when we deploy it shows in the number of parts, simplicity of vehicle but also help performance in terms of like end user state.
在任何時候,如果某件事是在筒倉中完成的,它就會成為成本、時間或效率的瓶頸,但隨著自動駕駛出租車的發展,我們在結合所有這些方面做得很好,然後打破了它的製造方式,說它應該以這種方式製造,並重新思考它是最高效的工廠。這表明——當我們部署時,我們的資本支出效率不僅體現在零件數量、車輛的簡單性上,還有助於提高最終用戶狀態的效能。
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Just to close out, just on the emerging front also in '25, we will have started manufacturing of car. We'll continue to increase our storage deployments with Powerwall 3. We plan to continue expanding our supercharging network, getting more OEMs on our network, 4680 that as Elon talked about, that would keep going. And then also we'll have our lithium refinery starting to produce. So there's a lot which is going on.
是的。最後,在 25 年的新興領域,我們將開始汽車製造。我們將繼續使用 Powerwall 3 增加我們的儲存部署。我們計劃繼續擴大我們的超級充電網絡,讓更多的 OEM 加入我們的網絡,正如 Elon 所說的那樣,4680 將繼續下去。然後我們的鋰精煉廠也將開始生產。所以有很多事情正在發生。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yeah, so many things. Like crazy thing is like Tesla is winning basically on almost every single thing we're doing. If we're not running now, we're in a where their entire large companies, that's the only thing they do.
是的,有很多事情。瘋狂的是,特斯拉幾乎在我們所做的每一件事上都取得了勝利。如果我們現在不跑步,我們就會處於他們整個大公司所處的位置,這是他們唯一做的事情。
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. I mean, it's a company -- there are multiple companies within the company.
是的。我的意思是,它是一家公司——公司內部有多家公司。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yes. Tesla's like many companies in one.
是的。特斯拉就像是一家集多家公司於一體的公司。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Thank you, guys, just a few more. What is going on with the Tesla Roadster?
謝謝你們,夥伴們,再多說幾點吧。特斯拉 Roadster 到底出了什麼問題?
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Some things. Well, I just thought to go back to our long-suffering deposit holders of the Tesla Roadster. The reason it hasn't come out yet is because it is -- Roadster is not just icing on the cake, it's the cherry on the icing on the cake. And so our larger mission is to accelerate the progress towards a sustainable energy future, trying to do things that maximize probably the future is good for humanity and for Earth.
有些事。好吧,我只是想回到我們長期受苦的特斯拉跑車押金持有者身邊。它尚未推出的原因是——Roadster 不僅僅是錦上添花,更是錦上添花。因此,我們更大的使命是加速實現永續能源未來的進程,並努力做一些可能對人類和地球有益的事情。
And so that necessarily means that like the things like that are deserved. We'd like -- we'd all love to work on the Tesla -- next-gen -- it is super fun. And we are working on it, but it has to come behind the more things that have a more serious impact on the of the world. So just thank you to all our long-suffering Tesla Roadster deposit holders. And we are actually finally making progress on that. And we're close to finalizing the design on it.
所以這必然意味著這樣的事情是應得的。我們希望——我們都願意為下一代特斯拉工作——這非常有趣。我們正在努力解決這個問題,但這必須先解決更多對世界產生更嚴重影響的事情。因此,我們向所有長期受苦的特斯拉 Roadster 押金持有者表示感謝。事實上,我們最終在這方面取得了進展。我們的設計即將完成。
It's really going to be something spectacular (inaudible) some like Peter Telaria, we're really good friends. Peter was lamenting how the future doesn't have flying cars. Well, we'll see. More to come.
這真的會是一件令人驚嘆的事情(聽不清楚),有些人喜歡 Peter Telaria,我們是很好的朋友。彼得哀嘆未來沒有飛行車。好吧,我們拭目以待。未來還會有更多。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Yeah, thank you very much. The next one is quite similar to other questions you've had. So when I combine it with the final question. So briefly, could you just detail how Robotaxi will roll out? Will it start with a Tesla deployed fleet and then allow customers to add theirs on the subscription model, and then we'll Hardware 3 capable of this.
是的,非常感謝。下一個問題與您遇到的其他問題非常相似。所以當我將它與最後一個問題結合時。那麼,您能否簡單介紹一下 Robotaxi 將如何推出呢?它是否會從特斯拉部署的車隊開始,然後允許客戶在訂閱模式下添加他們的車隊,然後我們將硬體 3 能夠做到這一點。
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Regarding the hardware 3, what we saw with was, it was easier to make a progress with starting with hardware 4 and on the solution and backporting to Hardware 3 instead of directly working on Hardware 3, given that hardware 4 was more like fundamental hardware capabilities. I think that trend will continue into the next few quarters as well by the first solution rapidly with hardware 4, and then backwardate and it just takes longer to those things because it's not fundamentally supported in the hardware and it's emulated. But yes, initially working on hardware 4, backwarding it to hardware 3.
關於硬體 3,我們看到的是,從硬體 4 開始,在解決方案上向後移植到硬體 3 比直接在硬體 3 上工作更容易取得進展,因為硬體 4 更像是基本的硬體功能。我認為這種趨勢將持續到接下來的幾個季度,首先透過硬體 4 快速解決,然後向後發展,並且需要更長的時間才能實現這些事情,因為它在硬體上沒有根本支持並且是模擬的。但是的,最初在硬體 4 上工作,然後將其反向到硬體 3。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yeah. So answer is we're not 100% sure, but as Ashok mentioned, because by some measure, Hardware 4 has really several times the capability of Hardware 3. It's easier to get things to work with then it takes a lot of effort to sort of squeeze that box analyst hat Hardware 3. And there is some chance that Hardware 3 is -- does not achieve the safety level that allows for unsupervised FSD. There is some chance of that.
是的。所以答案是我們不是 100% 確定,但正如 Ashok 提到的,因為從某種程度上來說,硬體 4 的能力確實是硬體 3 的幾倍。讓事情運轉起來更容易,然後需要付出很多努力來擠壓那個盒子分析師帽子硬體 3。且硬體 3 有可能無法達到允許無人監督 FSD 的安全等級。有這種可能。
And if that turns out to be the case, we will upgrade those group bought Hardware 3 FSD for free. And we have designed the system to be upgradeable so it's really just to sort of switch out the computer thing, the camera, the cameras are capable. But we don't actually know the answers of that. But if it does turn out, we'll make sure we take care of those on Hardware 3.
如果確實如此,我們將免費升級那些團購的 Hardware 3 FSD。我們設計的系統是可升級的,所以它實際上只是更換電腦、相機等功能。但我們其實並不知道答案。但如果確實如此,我們將確保處理好硬體 3 上的這些問題。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great. And in the last few minutes that we have left, we will try to get in some analyst questions.
偉大的。在剩下的最後幾分鐘裡,我們將嘗試回答一些分析師的問題。
Pierre Ferragu, New Street.
皮埃爾費拉古 (Pierre Ferragu),新街。
Pierre Ferragu - Analyst
Pierre Ferragu - Analyst
Thanks, guys, for taking my question. I was wondering about like the compute you're ramping up. So you gave like interesting statistics on how much you have and you said you don't feel your compute constrained. And I was wondering how you are putting to work this additional compute. Is that a game for you of creating like larger and larger models like next generation of models that are larger the way OpenAI go from GPT-3 to GPT-4? Or is that more like you're set on your model and you need to throw more and more compute to accelerate the pace of learning to improve reliability.
謝謝大家回答我的問題。我對您正在提升的運算能力感到好奇。所以你給了關於你擁有多少的有趣統計數據,並且你說你不覺得你的運算能力受到限制。我想知道您如何利用這個額外的運算功能。對你來說,這是一個創建越來越大的模型的遊戲,就像 OpenAI 從 GPT-3 到 GPT-4 一樣,下一代模型會越來越大嗎?或者這更像是你已經確定了你的模型,你需要投入越來越多的計算來加快學習的速度,從而提高可靠性。
And then I had a quick follow-up real quick on your rollout in Texas and in California next year. The plan, as you see today, is it to roll out like a fleet or two with cars that will start with like a supervisory like some onboard supervision, someone sitting at the wheel just in case and removing the supervisors progressively? Or are you aiming for going fully fledged without even a human supervisor when you get started?
然後,我對您明年在德克薩斯州和加利福尼亞州的推廣情況進行了快速跟進。正如您今天所看到的,該計劃是否會推出一兩支車隊,這些車隊將首先配備一些監督人員,例如車載監督人員,有人坐在方向盤上以防萬一,然後逐步取消監督人員?或者,您希望在開始時就完全實現自動化,甚至不需要人類監督?
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Okay. Well, I guess regarding -- the first part of the question, The nature of real-world AI is different from LLM and in that you have a massive amount of context. So like you've got a case of Tesla cameras that (inaudible) if you include tunnel camera that -- so you've gigabytes of context. And that is then distilled down into a small number of control outputs, whereas it's like it's very rare to have, in fact, I'm not sure any LLM out there can do gigabytes of context.
好的。嗯,我想關於問題的第一部分,現實世界的人工智慧的性質與法學碩士 (LLM) 不同,並且你擁有大量的背景資訊。就像您遇到的特斯拉攝影機的情況一樣(聽不清楚),如果您包括隧道攝影機 - 那麼您就有千兆位元組的上下文。然後將其提煉為少量的控制輸出,然而這非常罕見,事實上,我不確定任何 LLM 是否可以處理千兆位元組的上下文。
And then you've got to then process that in the car with a very small amount of compute power. So it's all doable and it's happening, but it is a different problem than what, say, a Gemini or OpenAI is doing. And now part of the way you can make up for the fact that the inference computer is quite small. It is by spending a lot of effort on training. And just like a human, the more you train on something, the less metal work takes when you try to -- when you do it, like when the first time like a driving it absolves your whole mind.
然後你必須在汽車上用非常少的計算能力來處理它。所以這一切都是可行的,而且正在發生,但這與 Gemini 或 OpenAI 所做的事情是不同的問題。現在,您可以透過某種方式彌補推理計算機體積較小的缺陷。就是花費大量精力去訓練。就像人類一樣,你訓練得越多,當你嘗試做某件事時,你需要的金屬加工就越少——當你第一次開車時,它會解放你的整個頭腦。
But then as you train more and more on driving different than the driving becomes a background task. It doesn't -- it only solves a small amount of your mental capacity because you have a lot of training. So we can make up for the fact that the insurance computers -- it's tiny compared to a 10-kilowatt bank of GPUs because you've got a few hundred watts of inference compute. We can make up that with heavy training.
但是隨著你越來越接受不同的駕駛訓練,駕駛就變成了一項背景任務。但事實並非如此——它只能解決你一小部分的心理問題,因為你已經進行了大量訓練。因此,我們可以彌補保險計算機與 10 千瓦的 GPU 組相比非常小的事實,因為您擁有幾百瓦的推理計算能力。我們可以透過高強度的訓練來彌補這一點。
So yeah, that's -- and then there's also vast amounts of the actual petabytes of data coming in tremendous. And then sorting out what training is important of the vast amounts of video training video data coming complete what is actually most important for trading. That's quite difficult. But as I said, we're not currently training compute constraint, try to lever it.
是的,那是——然後還有大量的實際 PB 級數據湧入。然後從海量的視訊培訓視訊資料中整理出哪些培訓是重要的,最終確定哪些培訓對於交易來說實際上是最重要的。這相當困難。但正如我所說,我們目前沒有訓練計算約束,嘗試利用它。
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Like you mentioned, the training has both in large models, also the trend quicker. But in the end, we still got to take which models are performing better. So the validation network to picking the models because as mentioned this pretty large. We had to drive a lot of miles going close to. We do have simulation and other ways to get those metrics. Those two help, but in the end, that's a big bottleneck. That's why we're not trying to compete constraint alone. And there's other access of scaling as well, which is a data figuring office as more useful, that is an important as focusing on that.
正如您所提到的,訓練既有大型模型,也有更快的趨勢。但最終,我們還是要選擇表現較好的模型。因此,驗證網路要選擇模型,因為如上所述,這個網路相當大。我們必須行駛很多英里才能到達那裡。我們確實有模擬和其他方法來獲取這些指標。這兩個有幫助,但最終,這是一個很大的瓶頸。這就是為什麼我們不試圖單獨對抗約束。還有其他擴展方法,例如資料計算辦公室更有用,關注這一點很重要。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Yes. So as it relates to the second part of your question, Pierre, about safety drivers and rolling it out. Each state has different requirements in terms of how many miles and how much time you need to have a safety driver and not have a safety driver. We're going to follow all those were not regulations are out there. But safety is a priority. But there is obviously, safety is there, and we are going to be more of action from --
是的。皮埃爾,這與您的問題的第二部分有關,關於安全駕駛員及其推廣。每個州對於需要有安全駕駛員和沒有安全駕駛員的行駛里程和時間都有不同的要求。我們將遵守現有的所有規定。但安全是首要的。但顯然,安全是存在的,我們將採取更多行動--
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yeah. I guess like we think that we'll be able to have driverless Teslas during paid rides next year, sometime next year.
是的。我想,我們認為明年,或者明年某個時候,我們就能在付費乘車中使用無人駕駛的特斯拉了。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
All right, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。
Adam Jonas - Analyst
Adam Jonas - Analyst
Thanks, everybody. I just had a question about the relationship between Tesla and xAI. Many investors are still not clear how the work at xAI is truly beneficial to Tesla. Some even take the view that the two companies may even be in competition with each other in terms of talent and tech and even your time, Elon. So what's your message to investors on that relationship between Tesla and xAI? And where do you see it going over time?
謝謝大家。我只是想問一下特斯拉和 xAI 之間的關係。許多投資者仍然不清楚 xAI 的工作如何真正使特斯拉受益。有些人甚至認為,這兩家公司可能在人才、技術甚至時間上相互競爭,伊隆。那麼,您想向投資者傳達有關特斯拉和 xAI 之間關係的訊息嗎?您認為未來它會如何發展?
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Well, I should say that xAI has been helpful to Tesla AI quite a few times in terms of things like scaling it, bought it, like training, just even like recently in the last week or so, improvements in training, where if you're doing a big training one and it fails, be able to continue training and is to recover from a training on has been pretty helpful. But there are different problems. xAI actually is working on artificial general intelligence or artificial super intelligence. Tesla's autonomous cars and autonomous robots. There are different problems.
好吧,我應該說 xAI 在很多方面對特斯拉 AI 都有幫助,例如擴展、購買、訓練等等,甚至像最近一周左右,訓練方面的改進,如果你正在進行一個大型訓練並且失敗了,能夠繼續訓練並從訓練中恢復過來,這是非常有幫助的。但存在不同的問題。 xAI 其實是在研究通用人工智慧或超級人工智慧。特斯拉的自動駕駛汽車和自動機器人。存在著不同的問題。
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
Ashok Elluswamy - Vice President, AI Software
I think we've said this before also, like not all AI is equal, right? I mean, AI is a broad spectrum. And we have our also in lets Yes, there are certain things which we can collaborate on if needed. But for the most part, we're wanting different issues.
我想我們之前也說過,並非所有人工智慧都是平等的,對吧?我的意思是,人工智慧的範圍很廣泛。是的,如果需要的話,我們可以在某些事情上合作。但在大多數情況下,我們想要的是不同的問題。
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer, Director, Technoking of Tesla
Yeah, Tesla is focused on real-world And I was saying earlier, it is quite a bit different from -- but you have massive context in the board video and some amount of audio, that's going to be instilled like extremely efficient inference compute. I do think Tesla is the most efficient in the world in terms of inference compute like because of necessity, we have to be very good at efficient firms. We can't put 10 kilowatts of GPUs in a car. We've got a couple of hundred watts. And it's pretty well-designed Tesla AI chip, but it's still a couple under.
是的,特斯拉專注於現實世界,我之前說過,它與之有很大不同——但你在董事會視頻和一定數量的音頻中擁有大量背景信息,這將像極其高效的推理計算一樣被灌輸。我確實認為特斯拉在推理計算方面是世界上最高效的,因為出於必要性,我們必須非常擅長高效的公司。我們無法將 10 千瓦的 GPU 放入汽車中。我們有幾百瓦。這款特斯拉 AI 晶片設計得相當出色,但仍有一些不足之處。
But there are different problems. I mean, this to that ad is like we just running in burns. I mean, it is running in question, just answering questions on a 10-kilowatt rank. It's like put that in a car. It's a different pole. No, exactly. So xAI is -- because I felt there wasn't there wasn't a truth-seeking digital super intelligence company out there, like that's what it came down to.
但存在著不同的問題。我的意思是,對於那個廣告來說,這就像我們在燒傷中奔跑一樣。我的意思是,它的運作是有問題的,只是回答了10千瓦等級的問題。就像把它放在車裡一樣。這是不同的極點。不,確實如此。所以 xAI 是——因為我覺得那裡沒有一家追求真理的數位超級智慧公司,就像事情就是這樣。
They needed to be a true set, like an AI company that is very reversed about make. I'm not saying xAI is perfect but that is at least the elaboration even if something is corrected would still be fruitful. I think this is very important for. So I think and I will -- it has been helpful to Tesla and will continue to be helped to Tesla, but they are very different problems.
他們需要成為一個真正的集合,就像一個對製造非常逆轉的人工智慧公司。我並不是說 xAI 是完美的,但至少即使有些地方需要修正,其細化仍然會很有成效。我認為這對於非常重要。所以我認為而且我會——這對特斯拉有幫助,並將繼續對特斯拉有幫助,但它們是截然不同的問題。
And as in like what is -- like what other cloud company has a world-class chip design team? Like Zero. What other cloud company has a world-class AI team like Tesla does? Zero. Those were all startups; they were created from scratch.
還有哪家雲端運算公司擁有世界級的晶片設計團隊?就像零一樣。還有哪家雲端運算公司像特斯拉一樣擁有世界級的人工智慧團隊?零。這些都是新創公司;它們都是白手起家的。
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Travis Axelrod - Head, Investor Relations
Great. Thank you, Elon. And I think that's, unfortunately, all the time that we have for today. We appreciate all your questions, and we look forward to hearing from you next quarter. Thank you very much, and goodbye.
偉大的。謝謝你,埃隆。不幸的是,我想我們今天的時間就這麼多了。我們感謝您提出的所有問題,並期待下個季度收到您的回覆。非常感謝,再見。