在特斯拉 2023 年第四季問答網路直播中,該公司宣布 2023 年產量和交付量將達到創紀錄的 180 萬輛,其中 Model Y 成為全球最暢銷的汽車。
他們還發布了全自動駕駛軟體的第 12 版,並推出了更新版 Model 3。特斯拉的目標是成為世界上最有價值的公司。
財務長強調了他們在收入和自由現金流方面創紀錄的一年,以及單位成本和汽車毛利率的改善。
他們計劃在 2024 年專注於發展儲能業務並降低成本。
特斯拉計劃於 2025 年下半年開始生產下一代小型車,並正在德州千兆廠實施革命性的製造技術。
他們預計 2024 年的成長將放緩,因為他們專注於推出下一代汽車。
特斯拉對其全自動駕駛技術持開放態度,並計劃擴大內華達州和墨西哥州的生產。
伊隆馬斯克討論了人形機器人擎天柱的生產時間表和障礙。
特斯拉感謝 Cybertruck 預訂者,並計劃提高產量。
他們對在品牌知名度上的過度支出持謹慎態度,並致力於透過規模和供應鏈優化來降低成本。
馬斯克討論了電動車市場的潛在成長以及特斯拉人工智慧日的可能性。
Tesla 正在投資 NVIDIA GPU 來實現 AI 功能,並開發自己的 AI 推理晶片。
他們的目標是在 2023 年第四季達到 36,000 輛汽車,並積極尋找削減成本的機會。
會計變更將提高稅率,但不會影響現金稅。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Fourth Quarter 2023 Q&A Webcast. My name is Martin Viecha, VP of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Vaibhav Taneja, and a number of other executives. Our Q4 results were announced at about 3:00 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.
大家下午好,歡迎收看特斯拉2023年第四季問答網路直播。我是投資者關係副總裁馬丁·維查 (Martin Viecha),今天加入我的還有 Elon Musk、瓦伊巴夫·塔內賈 (Vaibhav Taneja) 和其他一些高管。我們的第四季業績於下午 3:00 左右公佈。我們在與此網路廣播相同的連結上發布了更新平台中的中部時間。
During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.
在這次電話會議中,我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於許多風險和不確定性,包括我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性,實際事件或結果可能會存在重大差異。
(Operator Instructions) But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some operating remarks. Elon?
(操作員說明)但在我們進入問答之前,Elon 有一些操作說明。埃隆?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Thank you. So the Tesla team did an incredible job in 2023. We achieved record production and deliveries of about 1.8 million vehicles, in line with our official guidance. And in Q4, we were producing vehicles at an annualized run rate of almost 2 million cars a year. This is really a phenomenal achievement.
謝謝。因此,特斯拉團隊在 2023 年做了令人難以置信的工作。我們實現了約 180 萬輛汽車的創紀錄產量和交付量,符合我們的官方指導。在第四季度,我們的汽車生產速度接近每年 200 萬輛。這確實是一項了不起的成就。
Looking at just the Fremont factory alone, we made 560,000 cars. This is a record. In fact, it's the highest output of automotive plant in North America. And people are often surprised that the highest output factory -- car factory in North America is in the San Francisco Bay Area. It's a little counterintuitive perhaps.
光是看弗里蒙特工廠,我們就生產了 56 萬輛汽車。這是一個記錄。事實上,它是北美產量最高的汽車工廠。而人們常常驚訝的是,北美產量最高的工廠——汽車工廠竟然位於舊金山灣區。也許這有點違反直覺。
And the -- it's really had an incredibly positive impact on that entire area. What would have been a run-down strip mall is the highest productivity car plant in the Americas. Think about that. It was derelict when we got it, and now it's the most productive plant in this entire part of the world. And it's enriched the community in so many different ways. It's really a gem. So I'm super proud of the people that work there.
它確實對整個地區產生了令人難以置信的積極影響。原本是一座破舊的商業街,卻是美洲生產力最高的汽車工廠。考慮一下。當我們得到它時,它已經被廢棄了,現在它是世界上這個地區生產力最高的工廠。它以多種不同的方式豐富了社區。這確實是一顆寶石。所以我為在那裡工作的人感到非常自豪。
Model Y became the best-selling vehicle globally, as predicted, and the best-selling vehicle of any kind, not just electric vehicles, with over 1.2 million units delivered. The Energy Storage business delivered nearly 15 gigawatt hours of batteries in 2023 compared to 6.5 gigawatt hours the year before, so tremendous year-over-year growth, triple digits. And yes, I think we'll continue to see very strong growth in storage as predicted. I said for many years that the storage business will grow much faster than the car business, and it is doing that.
正如預測的那樣,Model Y 成為全球最暢銷的汽車,並且是所有類型的最暢銷汽車,而不僅僅是電動車,交付量超過 120 萬輛。儲能業務在 2023 年交付了近 15 吉瓦時的電池,而前一年為 6.5 吉瓦時,同比增長驚人,達到三位數。是的,我認為我們將繼續看到儲存的強勁成長,正如預測的那樣。我多年來一直說過,儲存業務的成長速度將比汽車業務快得多,而且它正在這樣做。
Free cash flow remained strong at $4.4 billion in 2023 in spite of record spending on future projects. So we had record CapEx expenses as well as record R&D.
儘管未來專案支出創紀錄,但 2023 年自由現金流仍保持強勁,達到 44 億美元。因此,我們的資本支出和研發支出都創歷史新高。
This brings us to 2024. There's a lot to look forward to in 2024. Tesla is currently between 2 major growth waves. We're focused on making sure that our next growth wave, driven by next-gen vehicle, energy storage, full self-driving and other projects, is executed as well as possible. For full self-driving, we've released version 12, which is a complete architectural rewrite compared to prior versions. This is end-to-end artificial intelligence. So [nothing but] nets basically, photons in and controls out.
現在已經到了 2024 年。2024 年有很多值得期待的事情。特斯拉目前正處於兩次主要成長浪潮之間。我們致力於確保由下一代汽車、能源儲存、全自動駕駛和其他專案推動的下一輪成長浪潮盡可能順利執行。對於完全自動駕駛,我們發布了版本 12,與之前的版本相比,這是一個完整的架構重寫。這就是端到端的人工智慧。所以基本上,[只不過是]網絡,光子進來並控制出去。
And it really is quite a profound difference. This is currently just with employees and a few customers, but we will be rolling out to all who -- all those -- all customers in U.S. who request full self-driving in the weeks to come. That's over 400,000 vehicles in North America.
這確實是一個相當深刻的差異。目前只有員工和一些客戶可以使用,但我們將在未來幾週內向所有要求完全自動駕駛的美國客戶推出。北美地區的汽車保有量超過 40 萬輛。
So this is the first time AI has been used not just for object perception but for pathfinding and vehicle controls. We replaced 330,000 lines of C++ code with neural nets. It's really quite remarkable.
因此,這是人工智慧第一次不僅用於物體感知,還用於尋路和車輛控制。我們用神經網路取代了 330,000 行 C++ 程式碼。這確實非常了不起。
So as a side note, I think Tesla is probably the most efficient company in the world for AI inference. Out of necessity, we've actually had to be extremely good at getting the most out of hardware because hardware 3 at this point is several years old. So I don't -- I think we're quite far ahead of any other company in the world in terms of AI inference efficiency, which is going to be a very important metric in the future in many arenas.
順便說一句,我認為特斯拉可能是世界上人工智慧推理效率最高的公司。出於必要,我們實際上必須非常善於充分利用硬件,因為此時硬件 3 已經有幾年的歷史了。所以我不認為——我認為我們在人工智慧推理效率方面遠遠領先世界上任何其他公司,這將成為未來許多領域的一個非常重要的指標。
So see, the new Model 3 is now available globally, so we did an update in Model 3. While the car looks similar, a lot of work has gone into the vehicle to make it better in every way. It is significantly quieter, more refined, better equipped, has longer range and many other improvements, and I recommend taking it for a test drive. If you have not driven a Model 3 in a long time, you should really try the new one, so steady improvements.
所以看,新Model 3 現已在全球上市,因此我們對Model 3 進行了更新。雖然這輛車看起來很相似,但我們在車輛上做了很多工作,以使其在各個方面都變得更好。它明顯更安靜,更精緻,裝備更好,續航里程更長,還有許多其他改進,我建議試駕一下。如果你已經很久沒有駕駛 Model 3,你真的應該嘗試一下新的,這樣才能穩定改進。
And we're very far along on our next-generation low-cost vehicle. This is an earnings call, not a product announcement. So there'll not be many questions that try to ask us about new products coming, but we reserve product announcements for product announcements, not earning calls. So -- but we're very excited about this, and this is really going to be profound not just in its design of the vehicle itself but in the design of the manufacturing system. This is a revolutionary manufacturing system, significant -- far more advanced than any other automotive manufacturing system in the world like by a significant margin.
我們在下一代低成本汽車方面已經取得了很大進展。這是財報電話會議,不是產品公告。因此,不會有太多問題試圖詢問我們即將推出的新產品,但我們保留產品公告用於產品公告,而不是賺取電話。所以,我們對此感到非常興奮,這不僅對車輛本身的設計,而且對製造系統的設計都將產生深遠的影響。這是一個革命性的製造系統,意義重大——比世界上任何其他汽車製造系統都要先進得多。
Several years ago, I said the -- perhaps the most important competitive characteristic of Tesla in the future will be manufacturing technology. And you will really see that come to bear with our next-gen vehicle.
幾年前,我說過──也許特斯拉未來最重要的競爭特徵將是製造技術。您將真正看到這一點與我們的下一代車輛相適應。
The first manufacturing location for this will be at our Gigafactory and headquarters in Austin, Texas. And then we'll follow that up with other locations around the world, probably our -- the factory we built in Mexico will be second, and then we'll be looking to identify a third location perhaps by the end of this year or early next outside of North America.
該產品的第一個製造地點將位於我們位於德克薩斯州奧斯汀的超級工廠和總部。然後我們將在世界各地的其他地點跟進,可能是我們在墨西哥建造的工廠將是第二個,然後我們將尋求可能在今年年底或年初確定第三個地點接下來是北美以外的地區。
In conclusion, we had a great year with record production, record deliveries and a strong free cash flow in spite of a very high interest rate environment. And we are focused on exciting new projects that will -- I think, ultimately, if we execute on all these things, and it is very hard to do all these things, not a sure thing, but I do see a path where Tesla could 1 day be the most valuable company in the world. I do want to emphasize that is not an easy path and a very difficult one, but it is now a set of possible outcomes. And previously, I would not have thought it is a set of possible outcome.
總而言之,儘管利率環境非常高,但我們還是度過了美好的一年,產量創紀錄、交付量創紀錄,自由現金流強勁。我們專注於令人興奮的新項目,我認為,最終,如果我們執行所有這些事情,而且要做所有這些事情非常困難,不是確定的事情,但我確實看到了特斯拉可以實現的道路1 天成為世界上最有價值的公司。我確實想強調,這不是一條容易的道路,而且是一條非常困難的道路,但它現在是一系列可能的結果。以前,我不會想到這是一組可能的結果。
So -- and thank you again to all of our investors, our employees and our suppliers for a strong year and looking forward to a great 2024 and years to come. Thank you.
因此,再次感謝我們所有的投資者、我們的員工和我們的供應商,他們度過了強勁的一年,並期待 2024 年和未來的美好時光。謝謝。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you, and our CFO, Vaibhav, has some opening remarks as well.
謝謝您,我們的財務長 Vaibhav 也發表了一些開場白。
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Thanks, Martin. Good afternoon, everyone. As Elon mentioned, we had a record year in terms of both production and deliveries for our auto business as well as record deployments in our energy business. This was achieved despite 2023 being a challenging year in terms of higher interest rates and higher inflation. Big thanks to our customer for being with us through this challenging period. I would also like to thank the whole Tesla team for their resolve and dedication throughout.
謝謝,馬丁。大家下午好。正如伊隆所提到的,我們的汽車業務的生產和交付以及能源業務的部署都創下了創紀錄的一年。儘管 2023 年是利率上升和通貨膨脹充滿挑戰的一年,但還是實現了這一目標。非常感謝我們的客戶與我們一起度過這個充滿挑戰的時期。我還要感謝整個特斯拉團隊的決心和奉獻精神。
In terms of our 2023 financials, we ended the year with over $96 billion of revenue and generated $4.4 billion of free cash flow to end the year with over $29 billion of cash and investments on hand. Our 2023 GAAP net income was impacted by the recognition of onetime noncash benefit of $5.9 billion from the release of valuation allowance on certain deferred tax assets. This was due to our recent history of sustained profitability and is similar to several other companies who have recently gone through a similar change in their accounting.
就我們 2023 年的財務狀況而言,我們年底的收入超過 960 億美元,創造了 44 億美元的自由現金流,年底手頭現金和投資超過 290 億美元。我們 2023 年 GAAP 淨利潤受到因釋放某些遞延稅資產估值備抵而確認的 59 億美元一次性非現金收益的影響。這是由於我們最近的持續獲利歷史,並且與最近經歷了類似會計變更的其他幾家公司類似。
Accordingly, starting with Q1, our booked tax rate will now be more in line with other companies in the S&P 500. In our vehicle business, we continue to see improvements in our per unit cost despite us being in the early phase of Cybertruck era. As a result, our auto gross margin improved sequentially. That said, predicting auto gross margins is extremely challenging since there are many moving parts to this equation, some of which are out of our control, like the change in tariffs or local incentives, to name a few. While the teams are focused on cost reductions, we are approaching the limits within our current platforms.
因此,從第一季開始,我們的預定稅率將與標準普爾500 指數中的其他公司更加一致。在我們的汽車業務中,儘管我們正處於Cybertruck 時代的早期階段,但我們的單位成本仍在不斷改善。因此,我們的汽車毛利率是季比改善。也就是說,預測汽車毛利率極具挑戰性,因為這個等式中有許多變化因素,其中一些因素是我們無法控制的,例如關稅或當地激勵措施的變化等。雖然團隊專注於降低成本,但我們正在接近目前平台的極限。
On the demand front, as promised, we made investments in digital campaigns in 2023. We fully appreciate the importance of customer education as we are still in the customer acquisition phase. Our data suggests that around 90% of our vehicle buyers in 2023 never owned a Tesla before. We are being creative in figuring out ways to bring in new customers and educate them about the benefits of owning a Tesla versus gas-powered vehicles, the key among them being total cost of ownership. This concept is mostly overlooked for just the upfront cost. We will be rigorous in evaluating our campaigns, curating the content and optimizing spend accordingly to support the overall demand.
在需求方面,正如承諾的那樣,我們在 2023 年對數位行銷活動進行了投資。我們充分認識到客戶教育的重要性,因為我們仍處於客戶獲取階段。我們的數據表明,到 2023 年,大約 90% 的購車者以前從未擁有過特斯拉。我們正在創造性地尋找吸引新客戶的方法,並向他們介紹擁有特斯拉與汽油動力汽車相比的優勢,其中關鍵是總擁有成本。這個概念大多因為前期成本而被忽略。我們將嚴格評估我們的活動、策劃內容並相應優化支出,以支持整體需求。
There are 2 additional things I would like to mention as it relates to the U.S. market. First, for customers who qualify for buyer credit, we now offer that as a point-of-sale benefit for Model Y, which means an immediate reduction of $7,500 at the time of purchase to the end customer. Secondly, we continue to offer very attractive lease rates for Model 3 and Y using our partner leasing program. Note that the sales under this program are recognized as upfront revenue and reported within automotive sales.
我還想提兩件事,因為它與美國市場有關。首先,對於有資格獲得買家信貸的客戶,我們現在將其作為 Model Y 的銷售點福利提供,這意味著最終客戶在購買時立即享受 7,500 美元的折扣。其次,我們繼續利用我們的合作夥伴租賃計劃為 Model 3 和 Y 提供極具吸引力的租賃價格。請注意,該計劃下的銷售額被確認為預付費用並在汽車銷售額中報告。
Our Energy Storage business had another record year with deployments more than doubling and revenues increasing by more than 50%. This business is poised to again surpass our auto business in terms of growth rate in 2024. This has been in the works for quite some time with us laying the foundation a few years back by building our Megafactory in metro. I would like to thank the whole Tesla energy team for their efforts to make this a reality.
我們的儲能業務再創歷史新高,部署量增加了一倍以上,營收成長了 50% 以上。到 2024 年,這項業務的成長率將再次超過我們的汽車業務。這項工作已經進行了相當長一段時間了,幾年前我們在地鐵建立了超級工廠,奠定了基礎。我要感謝整個特斯拉能源團隊為實現這一目標所做的努力。
Our services and others business also started contributing meaningfully to our results, and our fleets -- as our fleets grows as we expect the fleet-based revenues from supercharging, used cars and services to continue to increase. For 2024, our focus is to continue growing our output, continuing our cost reduction efforts and increasing investments in our future growth initiatives. Accordingly, we are currently expecting our capital expenditure for 2024 to be in excess of $10 million. We believe this would be critical in helping us lay the foundation for the next phase of growth.
我們的服務和其他業務也開始對我們的業績和我們的車隊做出有意義的貢獻——隨著我們車隊的成長,我們預計來自增壓、二手車和服務的基於車隊的收入將繼續增加。 2024 年,我們的重點是繼續增加產量、持續降低成本並增加對未來成長計畫的投資。因此,我們目前預計 2024 年的資本支出將超過 1,000 萬美元。我們相信,這對於幫助我們為下一階段的成長奠定基礎至關重要。
Once again, I would like to thank everybody at Tesla, our investors and our suppliers for being with us in this journey. We can open it up to questions, Martin.
我要再次感謝特斯拉的每一個人、我們的投資者和供應商在這段旅程中與我們並肩作戰。我們可以開放提問,馬丁。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you, and let's go through investor questions. Question #1 is from Michael. Given that you moved the start of the next-generation compact vehicle production to Austin, has the time line improved so that we might see the next-generation platform vehicles in 2025?
謝謝,讓我們來回答一下投資人的問題。問題#1 來自邁克爾。鑑於你們將下一代小型車的生產起點移至奧斯汀,時間線是否有所改善,以便我們可以在 2025 年看到下一代平台車輛?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
We -- I mean I won't certainly say things with -- that should be taken with a grain of salt since I'm often optimistic. But I don't want to blow your mind, but I'm often optimistic regarding time. But our current schedule shows that we will start production towards the end of 2025, sometime in the second half. That's just what our current schedule says. There's a lot of new technology, like a tremendous amount of new revolutionary manufacturing technology here.
我們——我的意思是我肯定不會這麼說——應該持保留態度,因為我常常很樂觀。但我不想讓你大吃一驚,但我常常對時間持樂觀態度。但我們目前的時間表顯示,我們將在 2025 年底(下半年的某個時間)開始生產。這正是我們目前的日程安排所規定的。這裡有許多新技術,例如大量新的革命性製造技術。
The reason I want to put this new revolutionary manufacturing line at Giga Texas was because we really need the engineers to be living on the line. This is not sort of off-the-shelf, just works type of thing. And it's just a lot easier for Tesla engineering to live on the line if it's in Austin versus elsewhere. So -- but we are currently expecting to start production second half of next year. That will be a challenging production ramp. Like I can't emphasize, we'll be sleeping on the line practically. In fact, not practically, we will be.
我之所以想在德州吉加建立這條新的革命性生產線,是因為我們確實需要工程師生活在生產線上。這不是現成的,只是實用的東西。與其他地方相比,在奧斯汀,特斯拉工程人員的生存要容易得多。所以 - 但我們目前預計明年下半年開始生產。這將是一個具有挑戰性的產量提升。就像我無法強調的那樣,我們實際上會在電話線上睡覺。事實上,實際上並非如此,我們會的。
But I am confident that once it is going, it will be head and shoulders above any other manufacturing technology that exists anywhere in the world. It's next level. So it's always difficult to predict what that S curve of manufacturing looks like. It always starts off real slow, and then it grows exponentially. So -- and predicting that intermediate S curve is difficult but -- so I don't know. It's hard to say what the unit volume would be next year. We're not going to make any predictions on that front, but it does seem quite likely that we will start production next year.
但我相信,一旦它投入使用,它將遠遠領先於世界上任何其他地方存在的任何其他製造技術。這是下一個級別。因此,預測製造業的 S 曲線是什麼樣子總是很困難。它總是一開始非常緩慢,然後呈指數級增長。所以——預測中間的 S 曲線很困難,但是——所以我不知道。很難說明年的單位產量是多少。我們不會在這方面做出任何預測,但看起來我們很有可能會在明年開始生產。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. The next question is from Michael again. What has been the barrier to ramping 4680 cells into multimillion cells per week rate? And when do you expect to get there? Drew?
謝謝。下一個問題又是麥可提出的。將 4680 個細胞提升為每週數百萬個細胞的障礙是什麼?您預計什麼時候到達那裡?德魯?
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Yes. First, I just want to allay any concerns regarding 4680 limiting the Cybertruck ramp because I've seen some people commenting about that. Today, 4680 production is ahead of the ramp with actually weeks of finished cell inventory. And the goal is to keep it that way not only for Cyber but for our future vehicle programs. And as Elon said, it is an S curve here too. Like it's hard to predict these things. But I'm just describing our goals.
是的。首先,我只是想消除有關 4680 限制 Cybertruck 坡道的任何擔憂,因為我看到一些人對此發表評論。如今,4680 的產量領先於產能成長,成品電池庫存實際上長達數週。我們的目標不僅是為了網絡,也是為了我們未來的車輛項目保持這種狀態。正如 Elon 所說,這裡也是 S 曲線。就像很難預測這些事情一樣。但我只是描述我們的目標。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
It's a hard problem. Like there are entire companies where all they do is make battery cells. That's like all they do.
這是一個難題。就像有些公司只做電池製造一樣。這就像他們所做的一切。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Indeed. Indeed.
的確。的確。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
We do a lot of other things. And we've got a lot of breakthrough technologies that take time to figure out what is -- it's not just that it's a 46-millimeter diameter by 80-millimeter fuel cell. That's just the dimensions. There's tremendous amount of new technology in the cell itself.
我們還做了很多其他事情。我們擁有許多突破性技術,需要時間來弄清楚它是什麼——不僅僅是直徑 46 毫米 x 80 毫米的燃料電池。這只是尺寸。細胞本身就有大量的新技術。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
And manufacturing technology.
和製造技術。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Yes, exactly.
對,就是這樣。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
And just regarding what the team was able to do in Q4, Texas successfully swapped line 1 from the Model Y design of the cell to the Cybertruck design of the cell, which was the 10% cell energy increase I've mentioned before. And as with any major new product introduction, the factory and engineering teams collaborated to ensure quality of the new design and the process changes as their first priority. And now our focus returns to cost and production ramp in Q1.
就團隊在第四季度能夠做的事情而言,德克薩斯州成功地將1 號線從Model Y 設計的電池更換為Cybertruck 設計的電池,這就是我之前提到的10% 的電池能量增加。與任何重大新產品的推出一樣,工廠和工程團隊通力合作,以確保新設計的品質和製程變更為首要任務。現在我們的焦點回到第一季的成本和產量成長。
And in terms of what we're doing, we're currently running 1 production line, 1 assembly line, using 2 assembly lines in addition for yield and rate improvement trials, and we have a fourth in commissioning, and 4 more will be installed starting in Q3 this year. So definitely, this is a big year for ramping 4680.
就我們正在做的事情而言,我們目前正在運行 1 條生產線、1 條裝配線,此外還使用 2 條裝配線進行產量和速率改進試驗,我們還有第四條正在調試,另外 4 條將安裝從今年第三季開始。所以毫無疑問,今年是 4680 成長的重要一年。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
We also do want to emphasize that we also expect to ramp orders from our suppliers. So this is not about replacing our suppliers. It's about supplementing our suppliers. So we are very appreciative of our suppliers. Panasonic, obviously, is our longest supplier. They're an amazing company. We've got CATL. We've got LG and BYD.
我們也想強調,我們也希望增加供應商的訂單。所以這不是要更換我們的供應商。這是為了補充我們的供應商。所以我們非常感謝我們的供應商。顯然,松下是我們時間最長的供應商。他們是一家了不起的公司。我們有寧德時代。我們有LG和比亞迪。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. The next question is from Adam. Should retail shareholders be concerned that Elon has stated that he is uncomfortable expanding AI and robotics at Tesla if he doesn't have 25% of voting?
謝謝。下一個問題是亞當提出的。艾隆表示,如果他沒有 25% 的投票權,他對在特斯拉擴展人工智慧和機器人技術感到不安,散戶股東是否應該擔心?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Yes. I guess let me explain why -- what my concern is here, which is that I see a path to creating an artificial intelligence and robotics juggernaut of truly immense capability and power. And my concern would be -- I don't want to control it, but if I have so little influence over the company at that stage that I could sort of be voted out by some sort of random shareholder advisory firm -- we've had a lot of challenges with institutional shareholder services, ISS, I call them ISIS, and Glass Lewis, which there's a lot of activists that basically infiltrate those organizations and have strange ideas about what should be done.
是的。我想讓我解釋一下原因——我關心的是,我看到了一條創造真正具有巨大能力和力量的人工智慧和機器人巨頭的道路。我擔心的是——我不想控制它,但如果我在那個階段對公司的影響力太小,以至於我可能會被某種隨機的股東諮詢公司投票淘汰——我們已經機構股東服務、國際太空站(ISS,我稱之為伊斯蘭國)和格拉斯劉易斯(Glass Lewis)面臨很多挑戰,其中有很多積極分子基本上滲透到這些組織中,並對應該做什麼有奇怪的想法。
So I want to have enough to be -- like if we could do a dual-class stock, that would be ideal. I'm not looking for additional economics. I just want to be an effective steward of very powerful technology.
所以我想要有足夠的東西 - 就像我們可以做雙重股權股票一樣,那將是理想的。我並不是尋找額外的經濟效益。我只想成為非常強大的技術的有效管理者。
And the reason I just sort of roughly picked approximately 25% was that that's not so much that I can control the company even if I go bonkers. And if I'm like mad, they can throw me out, but it's enough that I have a strong influence. That's what I'm aiming for, is a strong influence but not control. There's some way to achieve that, that would be great.
我粗略地選擇大約 25% 的原因是,即使我發瘋,這也不足以讓我控制公司。如果我瘋了,他們可以把我趕出去,但我有強大的影響力就夠了。這就是我的目標,是產生強大的影響力,而不是控制力。有某種方法可以實現這一目標,那就太好了。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. The next question is what is your expectation for automotive gross margin ex regulatory credits for the full year?
謝謝。下一個問題是您對全年汽車毛利率(扣除監管信貸)的預期是多少?
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Like I said in my opening remarks, we're focused on reducing the cost of our vehicles. This is very extensive and involved exercise, where we -- whereby we look at not just the component cost down to -- but down to the packaging used to get the materials to the production floor. Each element of the cost is scrutinized to optimize further.
正如我在開場白中所說,我們致力於降低車輛成本。這是一項非常廣泛且涉及的工作,我們不僅要考慮組件成本,還要考慮將材料運送到生產車間所使用的包裝。成本的每個要素都經過仔細審查以進一步優化。
A few pennies saved at the subcomponent level, whether through engineering redesign or from many other things, which I mentioned, leads to cost reduction. This is a constant exercise, and we just have to chase down every penny possible. We have a strong team, which is hyper focused on this. However, this is a very difficult thing to predict precisely because there are a lot of...
無論是透過工程重新設計還是透過我提到的許多其他事情,在子組件層級節省了幾分錢,從而降低了成本。這是一項持續的工作,我們只需要盡可能地爭取每一分錢。我們擁有一支強大的團隊,非常專注於此。然而,這是一件非常難以準確預測的事情,因為有很多......
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
We don't know. We don't have a crystal ball, so it's difficult for us to predict this with precision. If the interest rates come down quickly, I think margins will be good. And if they don't come down quickly, they won't be that good. Yes.
我們不知道。我們沒有水晶球,所以我們很難準確地預測這一點。如果利率迅速下降,我認為利潤率會很好。如果他們不盡快下來,他們就不會那麼好。是的。
It's always important to remember that the vast majority of people buying a car is about the monthly payment. It's not that people don't want -- we have tons of -- we have lots of people who want to buy our car but simply cannot afford it. And that -- as that -- as interest rates drop and that monthly payment drops, then they're able to afford it and they buy the car. It's pretty straightforward. And there are no tricks around -- to get around this.
重要的是要記住,絕大多數人買車都是為了每月付款。這並不是說人們不想要——我們有很多——我們有很多人想買我們的汽車,但根本買不起。隨著利率下降和每月還款額下降,他們就有能力買車了。這非常簡單。並且沒有任何技巧可以解決這個問題。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Okay. Thank you. The next question is does the company anticipate 50% volume CAGR to be realized in either 2024 or 2025? If not, why not?
好的。謝謝。下一個問題是,該公司是否預計在 2024 年或 2025 年實現 50% 的銷售複合年增長率?如果沒有,為什麼不呢?
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
As we have said in our prior guidance, there will be periods where we won't be growing at the same rate as before. We are between 2 major growth waves. The first one began with the global expansion of Model 3 and Y., and we believe the next one will be initiated with the next-generation platform. In 2024, our volume growth will be lower, as we have said, because we're trying to focus the team on the launch of the next-generation vehicle.
正如我們在先前的指導中所說,在某些時期我們的成長速度將不會與以前相同。我們正處於兩個主要成長浪潮之間。第一個是從 Model 3 和 Y. 的全球擴張開始的,我們相信下一個將從下一代平台開始。正如我們所說,到 2024 年,我們的銷售成長將會較低,因為我們正在努力讓團隊集中精力推出下一代汽車。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
All right. Thank you very much. The next question is from Michael. When will Tesla start construction on the Giga Nevada expansion and Giga Mexico? And when can we expect each of these to produce their first products such as 4680 cell semi and the next-gen vehicles?
好的。非常感謝。下一個問題來自邁克爾。特斯拉何時開始興建 Giga 內華達州工廠和 Giga 墨西哥工廠?我們什麼時候可以期望這些公司生產出他們的第一批產品,例如 4680 半電池和下一代汽車?
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
We have recently broken ground the next phase of Giga Nevada expansion to incorporate semi and other projects. But as said earlier, as regarding Mexico, we want to first demonstrate success with the next-generation platform in Austin before we start construction. Therefore, we have started the long lead work to get the basics ready and plan to follow our recipe from the 3, Y ramp with Shanghai, where we started with learnings from Fremont and ramped really quickly.
我們最近破土動工了 Giga Nevada 擴建項目的下一階段,以納入半成品和其他項目。但正如之前所說,就墨西哥而言,我們希望在開始建造之前首先在奧斯汀展示下一代平台的成功。因此,我們已經開始了長期的前期工作,以準備好基礎知識,併計劃在上海的 3、Y 坡道上遵循我們的配方,在那裡我們從弗里蒙特那裡學習,並迅速提升。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Yes, exactly. It's important to emphasize that, I mean, Model 3 production was 3 years of hell, honestly before, some of the really worst years of my life, frankly. Still have mental scar tissue from that, from those 3 years as do many. But then -- and then Model Y was somewhat of a variant on Model 3, so a much easier situation.
對,就是這樣。需要強調的是,我的意思是,老實說,Model 3 的生產經歷了地獄般的 3 年,坦白說,這是我一生中最糟糕的幾年。和許多人一樣,這三年仍然留下了精神上的傷疤。但後來,Model Y 在某種程度上是 Model 3 的變體,所以情況要容易得多。
And then we're able to actually do an improved -- slightly improved versions of -- in some cases, significantly improved versions of the Model Y production line in Shanghai and Berlin. And that's the right -- I think the sensible way to go about things, is kind of figure out the core technology of the manufacturing line and then replicate it with improvements throughout the world.
然後,我們實際上能夠對上海和柏林的 Model Y 生產線進行改進——在某些情況下,稍微改進版本——顯著改進版本。這是正確的——我認為明智的做法是找出生產線的核心技術,然後在世界各地進行改進並複製它。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. The next question for Michael is has there been any progress made with an FSD licensing agreement with another company?
謝謝。 Michael 面臨的下一個問題是與另一家公司簽訂的 FSD 授權協議是否取得了任何進展?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
I really think lots of car companies should be asking for FSD licenses, but -- and we've had some tentative conversations, but I think they don't believe it's real quite yet. I think that will become obvious probably this year. And I do want to emphasize that if I were CEO of another car company, I would definitely be calling Tesla and asking to license Tesla full self-driving technology. It's definitely the smart move.
我真的認為很多汽車公司應該申請 FSD 許可證,但是——我們已經進行了一些試探性的對話,但我認為他們還不相信這是真的。我認為這可能會在今年變得明顯。我確實想強調,如果我是另一家汽車公司的首席執行官,我肯定會打電話給特斯拉並要求獲得特斯拉全自動駕駛技術的許可。這絕對是明智之舉。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. The next question from Siddharth, what is the time line for Optimus first production of volume production line? And what are the barriers to getting there?
謝謝。 Siddharth 的下一個問題是,Optimus 首條量產線的時間是什麼?實現這目標的障礙是什麼?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Optimus obviously is a very new product, an extremely revolutionary product and something that I think has the potential to far exceed the value of everything else at Tesla combined. And when you think of an economy, economy is productivity per capita times capita. And what if there's no limit to capita? There's no limit to the economy. And the technologies that we -- the AI technologies we've developed for the car translate quite well to a humanoid robot because the car is just a robot on 4 wheels.
Optimus 顯然是一款非常新的產品,一款極具革命性的產品,我認為它有潛力遠遠超過特斯拉其他所有產品的價值總和。當你想到經濟時,經濟就是人均生產力乘以人均。如果資本沒有限制怎麼辦?經濟沒有限制。我們為汽車開發的人工智慧技術可以很好地轉化為人形機器人,因為汽車只是一個有 4 個輪子的機器人。
Tesla is arguably already the biggest robot maker in the world. It's just a 4-wheeled robot. So Optimus is a robot with -- a humanoid robot with arms and legs, just by far the most sophisticated humanoid robot that's being developed anywhere in the world.
特斯拉可以說已經是世界上最大的機器人製造商。它只是一個四輪機器人。所以擎天柱是一個機器人——一個有手臂和腿的人形機器人,是迄今為止世界上正在開發的最複雜的人形機器人。
I think we've got a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units next year. This is a brand-new product, a lot of uncertainty as -- when you have -- when there's a lot of uncertainty in your uncharted territory, it's obviously impossible to make a precise prediction.
我認為明年我們很有可能會運送一些 Optimus 設備。這是一個全新的產品,有很多不確定性,因為當你在未知領域存在許多不確定性時,顯然不可能做出精確的預測。
But we will be updating the public with progress on Optimus every few months. And you can see that the -- it's advancing very quickly. I was just in the Optimus lab actually until late last night. Like midnight or something, I finally left the Optimus lab. The team is doing amazing work.
但我們將每隔幾個月向公眾通報 Optimus 的進展。你可以看到——它的進展非常快。其實直到昨晚我才在擎天柱實驗室裡。大概是午夜時分,我終於離開了擎天柱實驗室。團隊正在做令人驚嘆的工作。
That's obviously the case where we want to make sure that Optimus is safe, especially at scale and that there's no -- it should be impossible for any centralized control to upload malware to a humanoid robot. So we're going to want to fold in localized shutoff that cannot be updated from the -- from a central server. That's the case where we really have to -- extreme thought to safety. But like I said, I do think it has the potential to be the most valuable product of any kind ever by far.
顯然,我們希望確保 Optimus 是安全的,尤其是在規模上,任何集中控制都不可能將惡意軟體上傳到人形機器人。因此,我們將希望納入無法從中央伺服器更新的局部關閉。在這種情況下,我們確實必須——對安全進行極端的思考。但正如我所說,我確實認為它有潛力成為迄今為止最有價值的產品。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Just to comment on the barrier. I think the barrier, and we've talked about this, is like getting it to actually do something useful. Like we can get it to walk around. We can get it to do things, but it's like that utility part.
只是對障礙發表評論。我認為障礙,我們已經討論過,就像讓它真正做一些有用的事情。就像我們可以讓它四處走動一樣。我們可以讓它做一些事情,但它就像那個實用程式部分。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
It can already do some useful things.
它已經可以做一些有用的事情了。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
But like to making millions of these things, it's like utility. You got to get to utility of it.
但就像製造數百萬個這樣的東西一樣,它就像實用程式一樣。你必須充分利用它。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Yes, a smart robot that can do -- that's capable of doing generalized tasks is what it will be. And in terms of doing moderately specialized tasks, well, it can already do that, and it'll just get better through the course of the year.
是的,一個能夠執行通用任務的智慧機器人就是這樣的。在執行適度專業化的任務方面,它已經可以做到這一點,而且在這一年中它只會變得更好。
As we improve the technology in the car, we improve the technology in Optimus at the same time. It runs the same AI inference computer that's on the car, same training technology. I mean we're really building the future. I mean the Optimus lab looks like the set of Westworld, but admittedly, that was not a super utopian situation.
當我們改進汽車技術時,我們同時改進了 Optimus 的技術。它運行與汽車上相同的人工智慧推理計算機,以及相同的訓練技術。我的意思是,我們確實正在建立未來。我的意思是擎天柱實驗室看起來像西部世界的佈景,但不可否認,這並不是一個超級烏托邦的情況。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Yes, not the best reference.
是的,不是最好的參考。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Yes. The creators of Westworld, Jon Nolan -- Lisa Joy, Nolan, all friends of mine actually, and I invited them to come see the lab. I think -- well, come see it hopefully soon. It's pretty wild, especially the sort of subsystem test stands, where you just got like one leg on a test stand just doing repetitive exercises and one arm in a test stand, pretty wild. Yes.
是的。 《西方世界》的創作者喬恩諾蘭——麗莎喬伊、諾蘭,其實都是我的朋友,我邀請他們來參觀實驗室。我想——好吧,希望很快就能看到。這是非常瘋狂的,尤其是那種子系統測試台,你就像一條腿放在測試台上做重複練習,一隻手臂放在測試台上,非常瘋狂。是的。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
We're not entering Westworld anytime soon.
我們不會很快進入西部世界。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Right, right. We're going to take safety very, very seriously.
是的是的。我們將非常非常重視安全。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. The next question from Nermin is how many Cybertruck orders are in the queue? And when do you anticipate to be able to fulfill existing orders?
謝謝。 Nermin 的下一個問題是隊列中有多少 Cybertruck 訂單?您預計什麼時候能夠履行現有訂單?
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
First of all, I want to thank all of the Cybertruck reservation holders for their patience. The reservation to order conversion rate so far has been very, very encouraging. If the trend continues, as it very likely to be, we will soon sort out all the builds in 2024. And also, we have new orders come in after the launch. The order numbers keep growing. So we're now all hands on deck focused on ramping, so we can fulfill all the demands in a reduced lead time.
首先,我要感謝所有 Cybertruck 預訂者的耐心等待。到目前為止,預訂到訂單的轉換率非常非常令人鼓舞。如果這種趨勢持續下去(很有可能),我們很快就會在 2024 年整理出所有版本。而且,我們在發布後還會收到新訂單。訂單數量持續增加。因此,我們現在全力以赴,專注於產能提升,以便我們能夠在更短的交貨時間內滿足所有需求。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Yes, it's important to emphasize that this is very much a production-constrained situation, not a demand-constrained situation. And obviously, we could dramatically raise the price, but that doesn't feel right to us to sort of gouge people for early delivery. So -- but really, the demand is off the hook. As long as we have -- the price is affordable, I mean, I see us ultimately delivering on the order of like 0.25 million, something like 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year in North America but maybe more but give or take, roughly on that time frame. And it's -- I mean, it sure is a head turner. Yes.
是的,需要強調的是,這在很大程度上是生產受限的情況,而不是需求受限的情況。顯然,我們可以大幅提高價格,但我們覺得為了提前交貨而欺騙人們是不對的。所以——但實際上,需求已經擺脫困境。只要我們有——價格是可以承受的,我的意思是,我看到我們最終在北美交付大約 25 萬輛,大約每年 25 萬輛 Cybertruck,但可能更多,但大致在那個時間框架。我的意思是,它確實令人頭暈目眩。是的。
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Definitely is. Anywhere you go, people look at you. They give you thumbs up.
絕對是。無論你走到哪裡,人們都會看著你。他們會給你豎起大拇指。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Yes. It's like finally the future looks like the future. It's just that with the other trucks on the road there, which -- and there are some very good trucks on the road. But if you were to switch out the brand name, you would hardly know which company made them. But you definitely would know the Cybertruck. It's our best product ever.
是的。就好像未來終於看起來像未來了。只是路上有其他卡車,而且路上有一些非常好的卡車。但如果你把品牌名稱換掉,你就很難知道是哪家公司生產的。但你肯定會知道 Cybertruck。這是我們有史以來最好的產品。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
All right. Thank you. The next question is can we get Tesla energy volumes reported in the production and delivery release.
好的。謝謝。下一個問題是我們能否在生產和交付發布中報告特斯拉的能源量。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Yes. We will strive to do so starting from this quarter. And just a brief update from the business perspective. Megapack continues to see strong demand signals globally, driving consistent growth trajectory through '24 and '25. We want to thank all of our partners who put their trust in the Megapack team to execute on critical infrastructure around the world. And I would like to personally thank the Megapack engineering and production teams for their strong 2023 execution. Lathrop continues to ramp through 2024 with the operation of a second final assembly line to double capacity from 20 to 40 gigawatt hours by the end of the year.
是的。我們將從本季開始努力做到這一點。只是從業務角度進行了簡短的更新。 Megapack 在全球範圍內繼續看到強勁的需求訊號,推動了整個 24 年和 25 年的持續成長軌跡。我們要感謝所有信任 Megapack 團隊在全球關鍵基礎設施上執行任務的合作夥伴。我個人要感謝 Megapack 工程和生產團隊在 2023 年的強勁執行力。到 2024 年,Lathrop 將繼續提升產能,第二條總裝線將投入運營,到年底產能將翻一番,從 20 吉瓦時增至 40 吉瓦時。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. And the last investor question is from Siddharth. What are the preliminary results on the return on investment of your ads and education campaign? Given that many people still lack awareness the Tesla average price is less than the average non-luxury car price of $45,000, will you expand educational ads?
謝謝。最後一個投資者問題來自 Siddharth。您的廣告和教育活動的投資報酬率的初步結果如何?鑑於許多人仍然缺乏認識,特斯拉的平均價格低於 45,000 美元的非豪華車平均價格,您會擴大教育廣告嗎?
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
As Elon mentioned, the ultimate solution to increase EV adoption is really address the affordability issue. But at the same time, we do aware -- there's awareness issue as well. So in Q4, we ran a series of digital campaigns, very targeted digital campaigns across different geos and different channel. The target of these tests is really just to drive awareness and ultimately measure the return on investment on those digital channels.
正如伊隆所說,增加電動車採用率的最終解決方案實際上是解決負擔能力問題。但同時,我們確實意識到──也存在意識問題。因此,在第四季度,我們開展了一系列數位行銷活動,跨不同地理位置和不同管道的非常有針對性的數位行銷活動。這些測試的目標實際上只是提高意識並最終衡量這些數位管道的投資回報。
And the messaging we're driving is really focused on our product and also try to address some of the misconception of the EV, such as safety, affordability. And one particular awareness campaign where you run -- in Texas, we reached the audience about 10 million unique viewers and generally close to 0.5 million visits to our website. A large number of these viewers are first-time visitors to our site.
我們所傳達的訊息實際上集中在我們的產品上,並試圖解決對電動車的一些誤解,例如安全性、可負擔性。您在德克薩斯州開展了一項特別的宣傳活動,我們吸引了大約 1000 萬獨立觀眾,我們網站的訪問量通常接近 50 萬次。這些觀眾中有很多是首次造訪我們網站的訪客。
The traffic through these digital channels actually behave very similar to those organic traffic come to our website. So going forward, we're just going to keep exploring different channels and doing our trials to get a better understanding of the effectiveness of this digital campaign.
透過這些數位管道的流量實際上與進入我們網站的自然流量非常相似。因此,展望未來,我們將繼續探索不同的管道並進行試驗,以便更好地了解此數位活動的有效性。
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
But I would also like to caution that we will be very careful that we don't want to overspend on this side. We want to make sure people are aware, but we'll -- that's where we'll keep tweaking our methodology about how and where we spend the money because we understand the importance of increasing awareness, but at the same token, we don't want to spend a lot of money on just creating awareness.
但我也想提醒大家,我們會非常小心,不想在這方面超支。我們希望確保人們意識到這一點,但我們將不斷調整我們如何花錢、在哪裡花錢的方法,因為我們了解提高意識的重要性,但同樣,我們不這樣做。不想花很多錢來提高知名度。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Yes. I mean there are some geographies where our market share is remarkably low, like Japan for example. Now we obviously need to make sure that we have Superchargers in the right locations and the service centers are there and the product works well in Japan, but Japan is the third largest car market in the world, of any country.
是的。我的意思是,在某些地區,我們的市佔率非常低,例如日本。現在,我們顯然需要確保超級充電站位於正確的位置,服務中心在那裡,並且產品在日本運作良好,但日本是世界上第三大汽車市場。
So -- and we should at least have a market share proportionate to, say, other non-Japanese carmakers like Mercedes or BMW, which we do not currently have. So I think that's the case. And when I talk to friends of mine in Japan, they're like -- there is like quite a lack of awareness of Tesla. So that's a case where we definitely need to increase awareness in countries and regions where there is, yes, not that much awareness.
因此,我們至少應該擁有與梅賽德斯或寶馬等其他非日本汽車製造商相當的市場份額,而我們目前還沒有這些市場份額。所以我認為是這樣的。當我和日本的朋友交談時,他們的反應是──人們對特斯拉相當缺乏認識。因此,在這種情況下,我們絕對需要提高那些意識不夠的國家和地區的意識。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. Let's go to analyst questions. The first question comes from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research. Pierre, can you hear us?
謝謝。讓我們來回答分析師的問題。第一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。皮埃爾,你聽得到我們說話嗎?
Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure
Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure
Okay. Well, it's really tough to find the unmute button on Teams, guys. I'm sorry for being late. So yes, my question would be on like the cost reduction. You've talked about it already a lot. And if I look at it over the last like 5, 6 quarters on average, the COGS per car has been coming down like more than 2% sequentially on average. So that means you are like on a trajectory of COGS per car going down 10% a year. So that's probably like unheard of in the auto industry. I don't think any car manufacturer ever achieved that.
好的。好吧,夥計們,在 Teams 上找到取消靜音按鈕真的很難。對不起,我來晚了。所以是的,我的問題是降低成本。你已經談過很多次了。如果我看看過去 5、6 個季度的平均情況,每輛車的 COGS 平均連續下降了 2% 以上。這意味著每輛車的 COGS 每年下降 10%。所以這在汽車行業可能是聞所未聞的。我認為沒有任何汽車製造商能夠實現這一點。
But that's very, very mundane and very -- it's a good performance, but it's a very normal performance in a lot of other manufacturing industry like microelectronics or consumer electronics. And so I'd love to hear your thoughts about whether you consider yourself closer to the latter, to like a microelectronics business, where you have this ability to actually always improve costs, you have more control on how things are pulled together into your cars, and you see yourself sustainably taking costs down with that kind of pace. Or do you think your ability to take down cost is actually going to become more like in line with the rest in the industry over time?
但這是非常、非常平凡、非常——這是一個很好的表現,但在微電子或消費性電子產品等許多其他製造業中,這是一個非常正常的表現。因此,我很想聽聽您的想法,您是否認為自己更接近後者,就像微電子業務一樣,您有能力實際上始終提高成本,您可以更好地控制如何將部件組裝到汽車中,並且您會看到自己以這種速度持續降低成本。或者您認為隨著時間的推移,您降低成本的能力實際上會變得與行業中的其他公司更加一致?
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Yes. I think I've covered this in a pretty lengthy detail even in my opening remarks and in a previous question, but to just further clarify, we are constantly looking for what we can do to reduce costs. Like I said, it's a game of pennies. We've talked about it before as well. And the team is constantly going and checking where can we reduce the cost further. And do I believe that we will have the same pace which you've seen over the past few years? Probably not because, remember, we were coming out with a period wherein commodity prices were rising. So then we did see benefits coming from that.
是的。我想我已經在開場白和之前的問題中詳細介紹了這一點,但為了進一步澄清,我們一直在尋找可以採取哪些措施來降低成本。正如我所說,這是一場金錢遊戲。我們之前也討論過。團隊不斷地檢查我們可以在哪些方面進一步降低成本。我相信我們會以您在過去幾年看到的相同的步伐嗎?可能不是因為,請記住,我們正處於大宗商品價格上漲的時期。所以我們確實看到了從中帶來的好處。
So those are more or less taken care of, but there is more, which we're still chasing. And I would say a big kudos goes to the team out here at Tesla, both the engineering team as well as the supply chain team because every time we give them a challenge, they go gangbusters to try and figure out whatever they can to take out further cost.
所以這些或多或少都得到了解決,但還有更多,我們仍在追求。我想說,特斯拉的團隊,包括工程團隊和供應鏈團隊,都受到了極大的讚譽,因為每次我們給他們一個挑戰,他們都會全力以赴地嘗試找出他們能解決的問題。進一步的成本。
But yes, I would -- like I said, I would want to caution that do not project the previous cost reduction at the same pace completely in the future because with our current platform, we are getting to a place wherein there is -- there are limitations.
但是,是的,我想——就像我說的那樣,我想提醒大家,未來不要完全以同樣的速度預計以前的成本削減,因為利用我們當前的平台,我們正在達到一個地方——那裡是限制。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Yes, the increased scale also sort of helps us there. As we introduce new products, we have the opportunity to go renegotiate existing suppliers for better pricing. We're looking at every penny like Vaibhav and Elon mentioned. Just to give you an example, our inbound logistics cost has come down by 22% year-over-year. And this is because of optimization on using returnable packaging as opposed to cardboard, which is even better for the environment; optimizing trucking routes, negotiating better pricing with shipping companies, with trucking companies, going with the full truckloads and just doing that sort of -- the bigger we become, the more we put far into these things and the more efficient we become as a result of it. So those work streams are going to continue.
是的,規模的擴大也對我們有幫助。當我們推出新產品時,我們有機會與現有供應商重新談判以獲得更好的定價。我們正在關注 Vaibhav 和 Elon 提到的每一分錢。舉個例子,我們的入境物流成本較去年同期下降了22%。這是因為與紙板相比,使用可回收包裝進行了優化,這對環境更加有利;優化卡車運輸路線,與運輸公司、卡車運輸公司協商更好的定價,滿載卡車,就這樣做——我們規模越大,我們在這些事情上投入的就越多,結果我們的效率就越高它的。因此,這些工作流程將會持續下去。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
We are also getting into the tiers of supply chain to see where there are opportunities. Getting to the Tier 2s, Tier 3, Tier 4 levels and then negotiate those pricing as well to get more efficiency out of the system.
我們還在進入供應鏈的各個層面,看看哪裡有機會。進入 Tier 2、Tier 3、Tier 4 級別,然後協商這些定價,以提高系統效率。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
And then on the design side, we're not static, right, like especially in areas where the technology is still improving rapidly. Power electronics is a great example. We continue to bring improvements there that are like fundamentals sort of driven from the device up that result in cost reductions generation over generation. And they don't only go into the new vehicles. They come to the old vehicles as well. So that's closer to what you were talking about with like the microelectronics space. Some of that exists in the vehicle.
然後在設計方面,我們並不是一成不變的,對吧,尤其是在科技仍在快速改進的領域。電力電子技術就是一個很好的例子。我們繼續在那裡進行改進,就像從設備向上驅動的基本原理一樣,從而一代又一代地降低成本。他們不僅僅使用新車。他們也來到舊車旁。所以這更接近你所說的微電子領域。其中一些存在於車輛中。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
And certainly, our car is more computer than car in many ways and has a lot of new tech over the last 100 years of automotive production, so everyone is trying to scrape pennies from.
當然,我們的汽車在許多方面都比汽車更像是計算機,並且在過去 100 年的汽車生產中採用了許多新技術,因此每個人都在試圖從中撈取好處。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
We have a crazy amount of compute in our cars compared to anyone else. It's like orders of magnitude.
與其他人相比,我們的汽車擁有大量的運算能力。這就像幾個數量級。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
And we get to ride that down, right?
我們可以克服它,對嗎?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Maybe 1,000x more. I don't know, it's some nutty number.
也許多 1,000 倍。我不知道,這是一些瘋狂的數字。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
I mean like if I just look at the main microcontroller that makes the motor go, for example, like when we -- when I think about what that costs when we stuck it in a roadster in 2006, the cost now, there's like no comparison. So we've definitely been riding that electronics cost wave.
我的意思是,如果我只看一下使馬達運轉的主微控制器,例如,當我們思考 2006 年我們將其安裝在敞篷跑車中時的成本時,現在的成本,幾乎沒有可比性。因此,我們確實一直順應電子產品成本浪潮。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
And then even on like non -- what you call traditional vehicle side, we do things that no other automakers do to bring costs down through breaking down the way structures are built and the way we put our cars together. And I think that mindset that we have is very much closer to the microprocessor or power electronics industry than the automotive industry.
然後,即使在非傳統車輛方面,我們也做了其他汽車製造商沒有做過的事情,透過打破結構的建造方式和我們組裝汽車的方式來降低成本。我認為我們的思維方式更接近微處理器或電力電子產業,而不是汽車產業。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. Pierre, do you have a follow-up?
謝謝。皮埃爾,你有後續行動嗎?
Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure
Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure
Yes, a quick one. It's -- you mentioned this like phase in which you are between 2 big growth periods. I'd love to hear you about what you consider the size of your addressable market with the portfolio you have today, like the 3, the Y, the X and the S. What's your estimate of your addressable market? You're shipping like probably about like a 2 million unit run rate today. And given the price points of these cars, what kind of market share of what you addressed with this car do you think you've already achieved today?
是的,快一點。這是──你提到了這個階段,你處於兩個大的成長時期之間。我很想聽聽您對目前的投資組合(例如 3、Y、X 和 S)的潛在市場規模的看法。您對潛在市場的估計是多少?今天,您的出貨量可能約為 200 萬件。考慮到這些汽車的價格點,您認為您今天已經達到了多少市場份額?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
I don't know if we have -- did anybody -- I actually don't think we have a firm idea that's -- it's hard to say exactly.
我不知道我們是否——任何人——我實際上不認為我們有一個堅定的想法——很難確切地說。
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Yes, this -- I wouldn't say there's -- I mean, one way to think about it is look at the automotive industry as well. EVs still contribute a very small market share. So yes, our goal is to try and take as much market share out of that pie. But do I have a specific number to give you? I don't think we can say that with certainty.
是的,這個——我不會說有——我的意思是,思考這個問題的一種方法就是看看汽車產業。電動車所佔的市場份額仍然很小。所以,是的,我們的目標是嘗試從這塊蛋糕中獲得盡可能多的市場份額。但我可以給你一個特定的號碼嗎?我認為我們不能肯定地說。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
And it's a growing pie as well. It's like it's 9% today, but it could be 20% in a couple of years or in the future.
而且這塊蛋糕還在持續成長中。好像今天是 9%,但幾年後或未來可能會是 20%。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Yes.
是的。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
And certainly, like the way we've looked at it, and we've always said this, it's not about how many EVs you can sell. It's how many great cars you can sell, how many vehicles you can sell. And that market's 100 million a year, and we're barely 2% of that. I still think there's 98% more to get.
當然,就像我們看待這個問題的方式一樣,我們總是這麼說,這與你可以銷售多少電動車無關。這是你能賣多少輛好車,你能賣多少輛車。這個市場每年有 1 億人,而我們只佔其中的 2%。我仍然認為還有 98% 的空間可以實現。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
I mean it's worth noting that if you look at, say, the average selling price of the other top-selling vehicles in the world, they are much lower priced than Model Y. So like a Toyota RAV4, Corolla, Honda Civic, that kind of thing, they're much lower priced than ours. So people are really stretching their wallets to be able to afford a Tesla. It's quite a difficult thing for them to do and remarkable that it's the best-selling car in unit volume despite being much more expensive than other high-volume cars.
我的意思是,值得注意的是,如果你看看世界上其他最暢銷車輛的平均售價,它們的價格比 Model Y 低得多。所以像豐田 RAV4、卡羅拉、本田思域之類的當然,他們的價格比我們低得多。因此,人們確實在掏腰包才能買得起特斯拉。這對他們來說是一件相當困難的事情,而且值得注意的是,儘管它比其他大批量汽車貴得多,但它是單位銷量最暢銷的汽車。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. Let's go to the next analyst. The next question comes from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.
謝謝。讓我們來看下一位分析師。下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。
Adam Michael Jonas - MD
Adam Michael Jonas - MD
So I can't wait to see the Optimus lab. I'm sure everybody on this call feels the same way. Your last AI Day, Elon, was September 2022. Can we expect a Tesla AI Day this year? It seems like a lot has changed in that realm and is this year the time?
所以我迫不及待想參觀擎天柱實驗室。我相信參加這次電話會議的每個人都有同樣的感覺。 Elon,您上一次的人工智慧日是 2022 年 9 月。我們可以期待今年的特斯拉人工智慧日嗎?那個領域似乎發生了很多變化,今年是時候嗎?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Yes, it's a good question. We have found that when we do these AI Days, some of our competitors literally look at what we do on a frame-by-frame basis.
是的,這是一個好問題。我們發現,當我們舉辦這些人工智慧日時,我們的一些競爭對手實際上是逐幀地觀察我們所做的事情。
Adam Michael Jonas - MD
Adam Michael Jonas - MD
They do.
他們是這樣。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
And then we find these things being copied.
然後我們發現這些東西被複製了。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Same thing with Battery Day.
電池日也是如此。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Same thing with Battery Day. So we have to be a little cautious about revealing the exact recipe of the secret sauce. But I think some kind of update would be good to do. I'll talk it over with the team. And yes, I think we might do something later this year. Our main goal with these AI Days is recruiting, so -- and to sort of change the perception of Tesla as people think of Tesla as a car company when they should be thinking of Tesla as an AI robotics company.
電池日也是如此。因此,我們在透露秘方的確切配方時必須謹慎一些。但我認為進行某種更新會很好。我會和團隊討論一下。是的,我想我們可能會在今年晚些時候做一些事情。我們這些人工智慧日的主要目標是招募人才,從而改變人們對特斯拉的看法,因為人們本應將特斯拉視為一家人工智慧機器人公司,但他們卻將特斯拉視為一家汽車公司。
Adam Michael Jonas - MD
Adam Michael Jonas - MD
Maybe as a follow-up, Elon, I'd love your thoughts on the topic of China-based OEMs expanding into western markets as that -- as the China market kind of gets saturated and there's a tremendous growth in the supply, how much success should Tesla investors allow for this competition to achieve in western markets? And can you envision a scenario where Tesla could partner with a Chinese OEM to help accelerate sustainable transport in markets like Europe and the United States?
也許作為後續行動,埃隆,我想聽聽你對中國原始設備製造商向西方市場擴張這一話題的看法——隨著中國市場的飽和,供應量的巨大增長,有多少特斯拉投資者是否應該允許這場競爭在西方市場取得成功?您能否想像特斯拉與中國 OEM 合作,幫助加速歐洲和美國等市場的永續交通發展的場景?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Well, our observation is generally that the Chinese car companies are the most competitive car companies in the world. So I think they will have significant success outside of China, depending on what kind of tariffs or trade barriers are established. Frankly, I think if there are not trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world. So they're extremely good.
那麼我們的觀察整體來說中國車企是全球最有競爭力的車企。因此,我認為他們將在中國以外取得重大成功,這取決於建立什麼樣的關稅或貿易壁壘。坦白說,我認為如果不建立貿易壁壘,他們幾乎會摧毀世界上大多數其他汽車公司。所以他們非常好。
We don't see an obvious opportunity to partner. Certainly, we're happy to -- except on the Supercharger front, we're obviously happy to give any electric car company access to our Supercharger network. We're also happy to license full self-driving, perhaps license other technologies and anything that could be helpful in advancing the sustainable energy revolution.
我們沒有看到明顯的合作機會。當然,我們很高興——除了超級充電站方面,我們顯然很高興讓任何電動汽車公司訪問我們的超級充電站網路。我們也很高興獲得全自動駕駛的許可,或許還可以許可其他技術以及任何有助於推進永續能源革命的技術。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. And the next question comes from Dan Levy from Barclays.
謝謝。下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的丹·利維。
Dan Meir Levy - Senior Analyst
Dan Meir Levy - Senior Analyst
First, I'm wondering if you can just walk through some of the gating factors required to unlock your next-gen platform. You talked about a number of cost initiatives back at the Investor Day a year ago, things in manufacturing and powertrain. Maybe you can just give us a sense of where these initiatives stand.
首先,我想知道您是否可以了解解鎖下一代平台所需的一些限制。您在一年前的投資者日上談到了製造和動力總成領域的一些成本舉措。也許您可以讓我們了解這些舉措的立場。
And do you believe -- we know that there's a number of new features and technologies in Cybertruck, things like 48-volt architecture really employing your 4680 batteries. To what extent do you think Cybertruck is really a proving ground for next-gen platform and is really going to be a gating factor to unlocking cost reductions needed for the next-gen platform?
您相信嗎?我們知道 Cybertruck 有許多新功能和技術,例如 48 伏特架構,真正使用您的 4680 電池。您認為 Cybertruck 在多大程度上確實是下一代平台的試驗場,並且真的會成為降低下一代平台所需成本的門控因素?
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Yes. I don't think that anything in Cybertruck should be considered gating for the next-gen platform. We're obviously doing a lot of manufacturing innovations, as Elon said, for the next-generation vehicle. When you do something at that scale, you have to prove it out. You don't just throw it on the line and just build it. So we're going through those validation phases for all those new manufacturing technologies now.
是的。我認為 Cybertruck 中的任何內容都不應該被視為下一代平台的門控。正如埃隆所說,我們顯然正在為下一代汽車進行大量製造創新。當你做這麼大規模的事情時,你必須證明它。您不能只是將其投入生產線然後建造它。因此,我們現在正在經歷所有這些新製造技術的驗證階段。
Sure, 48-volt was definitely something we wanted to carry forward, and it's something we hope the industry adopts as well. We're also open to partnering if everyone wants to do that.
當然,48 伏特絕對是我們想要發揚光大的東西,我們也希望業界採用它。如果每個人都願意,我們也願意合作。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
(inaudible) but people really know that this is like inside-baseball thing, but, man, 48 -- it's so high time that the auto industry moved from 12 -- the random number of 12 to 48.
(聽不清楚)但人們真的知道這就像棒球內部的事情,但是,夥計,48 - 現在是汽車行業從 12 轉變的時候了 - 隨機數字 12 到 48。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Random number of 48.
隨機數 48。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Yes. Well, it's much less random.
是的。嗯,它的隨機性要小得多。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Slightly less random based on human injury but...
基於人體傷害的隨機性稍微低一些,但是......
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
I mean dramatically reduces the amount of copper you need in the vehicle and moving to sort of higher bandwidth communications, sort of Ethernet level of communications as opposed to CAN bus, which is pretty slow. So it's really just bringing cars to...
我的意思是,大幅減少車輛中所需的銅線數量,並轉向更高頻寬的通信,即以太網級別的通信,而不是 CAN 總線,後者速度相當慢。所以它實際上只是把汽車帶到...
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
The 21st century.
21世紀。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Yes, pretty much. So certainly like -- it's like normal for a laptop.
是的,差不多。所以當然就像——這對筆記型電腦來說是正常的。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Certainly bringing that like is an evolution in our architecture of the vehicles, but it's not gating by any means. The gating work is just to finish the design and manufacturing of the car, test them out and get them going.
當然,帶來這種類似是我們車輛架構的演變,但它無論如何都不是門控。澆注工作只是完成汽車的設計和製造、測試並啟動。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Yes, programs and execution, right? Right. So it's talking about like tooling lead time, manufacturing equipment lead time, factory lead time and executing this program.
是的,程序和執行,對吧?正確的。所以它談論的是工具提前期、製造設備提前期、工廠提前期和執行該程序。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
There's a lot of specialized machines that make the machine for our next-gen vehicle. So these are not machines you can just order from anyone. They actually have to design a machine that has never existed to build a car in a way that has never existed.
有很多專門的機器可以為我們的下一代車輛製造機器。因此,這些機器不是您可以從任何人那裡訂購的。他們實際上必須設計一台從未存在過的機器,才能以從未存在過的方式製造汽車。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Yes. So you don't just have like a design validation phase, but you have an equipment design validation phase as well.
是的。因此,您不僅有設計驗證階段,還有裝置設計驗證階段。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
It doesn't make it very hard to copy us because you have to copy the machine that makes the machine that makes the machine.
複製我們並不困難,因為你必須複製製造機器的機器。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Talking about tiers.
談論層次。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Yes, yes, exactly, manufacturing inception. So I do think it's quite a powerful, sustainable advantage because there just is no place to go to order the machines that make our next-gen car that don't exist.
是的,是的,正是,製造開始了。所以我確實認為這是一個非常強大、可持續的優勢,因為沒有地方可以訂購製造我們下一代汽車的機器,而這些機器並不存在。
Dan Meir Levy - Senior Analyst
Dan Meir Levy - Senior Analyst
As a follow-up, your release does not mention Dojo, so if you could just provide us an update on where Dojo stands and at what point do you expect Dojo to be a resource in improving FSD. Or do you think that you now have sufficient supply of NVIDIA GPUs needed for the training of the system?
作為後續行動,您的版本沒有提及 Dojo,因此您能否向我們提供有關 Dojo 現狀的最新資訊以及您期望 Dojo 在何時成為改進 FSD 的資源。或者您認為現在系統訓練所需的 NVIDIA GPU 供應充足嗎?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
I mean the AI part of your question is -- that is a deep one. So we're obviously hedging our bets here with significant orders of NVIDIA GPUs. GPU is the wrong word. They really didn't see it -- there's no -- you can't like produce graphics, so that's not a graphic processing unit, neural net processing unit or something like that. Yes, GPU's a funny word, like vestigial.
我的意思是你問題中的人工智慧部分是——這是一個很深層的問題。因此,我們顯然是透過大量 NVIDIA GPU 訂單來對沖我們的賭注。 GPU 這個詞用錯了。他們真的沒有看到它——沒有——你不能產生圖形,所以這不是圖形處理單元、神經網路處理單元或類似的東西。是的,GPU 是一個有趣的詞,就像退化一樣。
So -- and a lot of our progress in self-driving is training limited. Something that's important with training, it's much like a human. The more effort you put into training, the less effort you need in inference. So just like a person, if you train in a subject, sort of class, 10,000 hours, the less mental effort it takes to do something. If you remember when you first started to drive how much of your mental capacity it took to drive, it was -- you had to be focused completely on driving. And after you've been driving for many years, it only takes a little bit of your mind to drive, and you can think about other things and still drive safely.
因此,我們在自動駕駛方面的許多進展都是有限的。對於訓練很重要的一點是,它很像人類。你在訓練上投入的精力越多,你在推理上需要投入的精力就越少。所以就像一個人一樣,如果你在一門學科上訓練一萬個小時,做某件事所需的腦力勞動就越少。如果你還記得當你第一次開始開車時,你需要多大的心理承受能力才能開車,那就是——你必須完全專注於駕駛。而且當你開了很多年車後,開車時只需要一點點心思,就可以考慮其他事情,仍然可以安全駕駛。
So the more training you do, the more efficient it is at the inference level. So we do need a lot of training. And we're pursuing the dual path of NVIDIA and Dojo, but I would think of Dojo as a long shot. It's a long shot worth taking because the payoff is potentially very high but it's not something that is a high probability. It's not like a sure thing at all. It's a high risk, high payoff program. Dojo is working, and it is doing training jobs, so -- and we are scaling it up. And we have plans for Dojo 1.5, Dojo 2, Dojo 3 and whatnot. So I think it's got potential.
所以你做的訓練越多,推理層面的效率就越高。所以我們確實需要大量的訓練。我們正在追求 NVIDIA 和 Dojo 的雙重道路,但我認為 Dojo 的可能性不大。這是一個值得嘗試的長遠目標,因為回報可能非常高,但機率並不高。這根本不像是一件確定的事情。這是一個高風險、高回報的計劃。 Dojo 正在發揮作用,並且正在進行培訓工作,所以——我們正在擴大規模。我們也計劃推出 Dojo 1.5、Dojo 2、Dojo 3 等。所以我認為它有潛力。
I can't emphasize enough, high risk, high payoff. So I think it still makes sense given the -- even if it's a low probability of success for the -- I think anyway -- I'm belaboring the subject. It's a very interesting program. It has the potential for something special. There's also our inference hardware in the car, so we're now on what's called Hardware 4, but it's actually version 2 of the Tesla-designed AI inference chip.
我怎麼強調都不為過,高風險,高報酬。因此,我認為這仍然是有意義的,即使我認為成功的可能性很低,但我正在對這個主題進行闡述。這是一個非常有趣的節目。它有潛力做一些特別的事情。汽車中還有我們的推理硬件,所以我們現在使用的是所謂的硬體 4,但它實際上是特斯拉設計的人工智慧推理晶片的第二版。
And we're about to complete design of -- the terminology is a bit confusing. About to complete design of Hardware 5, which is actually version 3 of the Tesla-designed chip because the version 1 was Mobileye. Version 2 was NVIDIA, and then version 3 was Tesla. So -- and we're making gigantic improvements from 1 -- from Hardware 3 to 4 to 5.
我們即將完成的設計——術語有點令人困惑。即將完成硬體 5 的設計,這實際上是 Tesla 設計的晶片的版本 3,因為版本 1 是 Mobileye。第 2 版是 NVIDIA,第 3 版是 Tesla。因此,我們正在對硬體 1 進行巨大改進,從硬體 3 到 4 到 5。
I mean there's a potentially interesting play where when cars are not in use in the future, that the in-car computer can do generalized AI tasks, can run a sort of GPT4 or 3 or something like that. If you've got tens of millions of vehicles out there, even in a robotaxi scenario, whether in heavy use, maybe they're used 50 out of 168 hours, that still leaves well over 100 hours of time available -- of compute hours. Like it's possible with the right architectural decisions that Tesla may, in the future, have more compute than everyone else combined.
我的意思是,當未來汽車不再使用時,車載電腦可以執行通用人工智慧任務,可以運行某種 GPT4 或 3 或類似的東西,這可能是一個有趣的遊戲。如果您有數千萬輛車輛,即使在機器人計程車場景中,無論是否大量使用,也許它們在 168 小時中使用了 50 小時,仍然留下了超過 100 小時的可用時間(計算時間) 。就像透過正確的架構決策,特斯拉在未來可能擁有比其他所有人加起來還要多的運算能力。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. And the next question comes from Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.
謝謝。下一個問題來自富國銀行的科林·蘭根。
Colin M. Langan - Senior Equity Analyst
Colin M. Langan - Senior Equity Analyst
As we're thinking about going into 2024, the press release talks about hitting 36,000 or slightly above in Q4. And the comments on the release talk about approaching the [aperture] limits, and it sounds like you're continuing to try to [whittle] that away, but that sort of implies there's not much left.
當我們考慮進入 2024 年時,新聞稿談到第四季度將達到 36,000 或略高。發布的評論談到了接近[光圈]極限,聽起來你正在繼續嘗試[削減]這一點,但這意味著已經沒有多少了。
In addition, you have the hourly wage increase, I guess, will add to that into next year. And I thought you said raw material costs are kind of -- that benefit is sort of almost played out. So is there an opportunity to continue to go below the 36,000? Or should we kind of be modeling that it kind of stays at this level into '24?
此外,我想,你的時薪也會增加,明年也會增加。我想你說過原料成本是一種──這種好處幾乎已經發揮出來了。那麼還有繼續跌破36000點的機會嗎?或者我們應該建模它在 24 世紀仍保持在這個水平嗎?
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
We are definitely aware of the cost increases, which are coming through because of the wage increases. But like I said, we keep looking at other cost opportunities and try and figure out where else can we cut down. So there is definitely more opportunity to bring down costs further. I won't specifically guide to a number, which we will try and get to, but there's definitely more opportunity there.
我們肯定意識到由於工資上漲而導致的成本增加。但就像我說的,我們一直在尋找其他成本機會,並試著找出還可以削減哪些地方。因此,肯定有更多機會進一步降低成本。我不會具體指導一個數字,我們會嘗試並達到這個數字,但那裡肯定有更多的機會。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Yes, we're chasing lots of cost opportunities on the design side still for 2024. North of 8 figures is what we're -- just in my organization. Lars has got a bunch. And then from a commodities perspective, it's such a long cycle time through the whole material supply chain that even with what we've already seen to this point, there's more to come on commodities reductions.
是的,到 2024 年,我們仍在設計方面尋求大量成本機會。我們的目標是 8 位數以上——就在我的組織中。拉斯有一堆。然後從大宗商品的角度來看,整個材料供應鏈的周期時間如此之長,即使我們到目前為止已經看到了這一點,大宗商品的削減還會有更多。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
And there's still some tailwind left on the commodities.
大宗商品仍然有一些推動力。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
That's what I mean. Yes.
那就是我的意思。是的。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Aluminum and steel.
鋁和鋼。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Yes. And battery materials.
是的。還有電池材料。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
It boggles my mind to think that if we make a 1% improvement in cost, that's $1 billion. So it's like, on average, if we reduce the cost by $0.01, $1 billion. What? I mean we started off not long ago that we're only making like 10 cars a week. And yes, where does it lead ultimately? With good execution -- like I said, it's not a slam dunk, but with -- if we execute very well, I think Tesla could be the most valuable company in the world.
令我難以置信的是,如果我們將成本提高 1%,那就是 10 億美元。因此,平均而言,如果我們將成本降低 0.01 美元,即 10 億美元。什麼?我的意思是,不久前我們開始每週只生產 10 輛車。是的,它最終會走向何方?憑藉良好的執行力——就像我說的,這不是灌籃,但是——如果我們執行得很好,我認為特斯拉可能成為世界上最有價值的公司。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. Colin, do you have a follow-up question?
謝謝。科林,您還有後續問題嗎?
Colin M. Langan - Senior Equity Analyst
Colin M. Langan - Senior Equity Analyst
Yes, just a quick follow-up. In the commentary, you mentioned the taxes would go to the S&P 500 level. I think you've been trending slightly below 10%. S&P, I think it's typically 25%-ish. Is that going to -- should we expect that to jump right up next year when we're modeling next year? Or would it be like a gradual change over the next few years? And any cash impact from that tax change as well that we should be considering?
是的,只是快速跟進。在評論中,您提到稅收將達到標準普爾 500 指數的水平。我認為您的趨勢一直略低於 10%。標準普爾,我認為通常是 25% 左右。當我們明年建模時,我們是否應該期望明年這個數字會突然上升?還是會在未來幾年逐漸改變?我們應該考慮稅收變動對現金的影響嗎?
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Vaibhav Taneja - CFO, Corporate Controller & CAO
Yes. So there's no impact on cash taxes from the release of the valuation amount, which I spoke about. What it does is it's how you account for taxes on your books. So it's basically an accounting change wherein there are certain jurisdictions because we had enough NOLs, et cetera, wherein we didn't have to accrue book taxes. Now that the valuation allowance has been released and we have recognized deferred tax assets on the books, that means your tax rate immediately goes up.
是的。因此,我談到的估值金額的發布不會對現金稅產生影響。它的作用是決定你如何計算帳簿上的稅金。因此,這基本上是一個會計變更,其中存在某些司法管轄區,因為我們有足夠的 NOL,等等,我們不必累積帳面稅。現在估價津貼已經釋放,並且我們已經在帳簿上確認了遞延稅資產,這意味著您的稅率立即上升。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Okay. I think that's all the time we have for today. Thank you so much for all of your questions, and we'll speak to you again in 3 months. Thank you. Bye-bye.
好的。我想這就是我們今天的全部時間了。非常感謝您提出的所有問題,我們將在 3 個月後再次與您聯繫。謝謝。再見。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director
Thank you.
謝謝。