特斯拉 (TSLA) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Fourth Quarter 2022 Q&A Webcast. My name is Martin Viecha, VP of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives. Our Q4 results were announced at about 3:00 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

大家下午好，歡迎收看特斯拉 2022 年第四季度問答網絡直播。我的名字是投資者關係副總裁 Martin Viecha，今天加入我的還有 Elon Musk、Zachary Kirkhorn 和其他一些高管。我們的第四季度業績在美國東部時間下午 3:00 左右公佈。我們在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上發布了更新平台中的中央時間。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions)

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論基於我們截至今天的預測和期望。由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。 （操作員說明）

But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

但在我們進入問答環節之前，Elon 有一些開場白。伊隆？

Thank you, Martin. So '22 -- just going through the '22 recap. It was a fantastic year for Tesla. It was our best year ever on every level. Team did an amazing job. It's an honor, of course, to work with such an incredibly talented group of people.

謝謝你，馬丁。所以'22 - 只是通過'22 回顧。對於特斯拉來說，這是美妙的一年。這是我們在各個層面上最好的一年。團隊做得非常出色。當然，能與如此才華橫溢的一群人一起工作是一種榮幸。

So in 2022, we delivered over 1.3 million cars and achieved a 17% operating margin, the highest among any volume carmaker, I think maybe among any carmaker. While doing so, we generated $12.5 billion in net income and $7.5 billion in free cash flow. Importantly, the Tesla team achieved these records while -- despite the fact that 2022 was an incredibly challenging year due to forced shutdowns, very high interest rates and many delivery challenges. So it's worth noting that all these records were in the face of massive difficulties. Credit to the team for achieving that.

因此，在 2022 年，我們交付了超過 130 萬輛汽車，實現了 17% 的營業利潤率，是所有汽車製造商中最高的，我想這可能是所有汽車製造商中的。在此過程中，我們產生了 125 億美元的淨收入和 75 億美元的自由現金流。重要的是，儘管 2022 年由於強制停產、極高的利率和許多交付挑戰而成為極具挑戰性的一年，但特斯拉團隊實現了這些記錄。所以值得注意的是，所有這些記錄都面臨著巨大的困難。感謝團隊實現這一目標。

The most common question we've been getting from investors is about demand. Thus far -- so I want to put that concern to rest. Thus far in January, we've seen the strongest orders year-to-date than ever in our history. We currently are seeing orders at almost twice the rate of production. So I mean that -- it's hard to say whether that will continue twice the rate of production, but the orders are high. And we've actually raised the Model Y price a little bit in response to that.

我們從投資者那裡得到的最常見問題是關於需求。到目前為止——所以我想消除這種擔憂。到目前為止，一月份，我們看到了歷史上迄今為止最強勁的訂單。我們目前看到的訂單幾乎是生產速度的兩倍。所以我的意思是 - 很難說這是否會繼續兩倍的生產率，但訂單很高。作為回應，我們實際上提高了 Model Y 的價格。

So we think demand will be good despite probably a contraction in the automotive market as a whole. So basically, price really matters. I think there's just a vast number of people that want to buy a Tesla car but can't afford it. And so these price changes really make a difference for the average consumer. And sometimes for those -- for people who are well -- who have a lot of money, they sort of forget about how important affordability is. And it's always been our goal at Tesla to make cars that are affordable to as many people as possible so I'm glad that we're able to do so. And yes, so I think it's a good thing, all things considered. We're also making very good progress on cost control. And we're seeing the cost production in Berlin and Austin drop commensurate with the growth in production, as you'd expect, so yes.

因此，我們認為儘管整個汽車市場可能出現收縮，但需求仍將良好。所以基本上，價格真的很重要。我認為只有大量的人想購買特斯拉汽車但買不起。因此，這些價格變化確實對普通消費者產生了影響。有時對於那些——身體健康的人——有很多錢的人來說，他們有點忘記負擔能力的重要性。製造盡可能多的人買得起的汽車一直是我們特斯拉的目標，所以我很高興我們能夠做到這一點。是的，所以我認為這是一件好事，考慮到所有因素。我們在成本控制方面也取得了很好的進展。正如您所期望的那樣，我們看到柏林和奧斯汀的生產成本下降與產量增長相稱，所以是的。

With respect to Autopilot, as of now, we deployed Full Self-Driving Beta to -- for city streets to roughly 400,000 customers in North America. This is a huge milestone for autonomy as FSD Beta is the only way any consumer can actually test the latest AI-powered autonomy. And we're currently at about 100 million miles of FSD outside of highways. And our published data shows that improvement in safety -- stuttering here, safety statistics, it's very clear. So we would not have released the FSD Beta if the safety statistics were not excellent.

關於 Autopilot，截至目前，我們已將完全自動駕駛 Beta 部署到——在城市街道上，北美大約有 400,000 名客戶。這是自主性的一個巨大里程碑，因為 FSD Beta 是任何消費者實際測試最新人工智能自主性的唯一途徑。我們目前在高速公路以外的 FSD 大約有 1 億英里。我們公佈的數據顯示，安全性有所提高——在這裡口吃，安全統計數據，非常清楚。因此，如果安全統計數據不佳，我們就不會發布 FSD Beta。

Regarding batteries, production rate of 4680 cells reached 1,000 cars a week at the end of last year, and we're increasing capacity for 4680 cells by another 100 gigawatt-hours as announced at Giga Nevada yesterday. Our long-term goal is to get to well in excess of 1,000 gigawatt-hours of cells produced internally and continue to use the self cell providers. So to be clear, we will continue to use other cell providers. Just that the demand for lithium ion batteries is quasi-infinite and will be for quite some time. So we feel we can scale a lot faster using both suppliers and internally produced cells. And we've got an amazing plan for making the 4680 cell low cost and high energy density.

關於電池，去年底 4680 電池的生產率達到每週 1,000 輛汽車，我們昨天在內華達超級工廠宣布將 4680 電池的產能再增加 100 吉瓦時。我們的長期目標是在內部生產超過 1,000 吉瓦時的電池，並繼續使用自有電池供應商。所以要明確一點，我們將繼續使用其他手機供應商。只是對鋰離子電池的需求幾乎是無限的，並將持續相當長的一段時間。所以我們覺得我們可以使用供應商和內部生產的電池來更快地擴展。我們制定了一個使 4680 電池成本低、能量密度高的驚人計劃。

So energy storage also saw record growth, and that is continuing to accelerate. That's always worth remembering that the 3 pillars of a sustainable energy future are obviously electric vehicles, solar and wind, and the third key item is stationary storage to store the energy from solar and wind, because obviously, the sun doesn't shine all the time and the wind doesn't blow all the time. So you have those 3 things. You can convert all of earth to a fully sustainable situation many times over, actually.

因此，儲能也出現了創紀錄的增長，而且還在繼續加速。永遠值得記住的是，可持續能源未來的三大支柱顯然是電動汽車、太陽能和風能，而第三個關鍵項目是用於儲存太陽能和風能的固定儲能裝置，因為很明顯，太陽不會一直發光時間和風不會一直吹。所以你有這三件事。實際上，您可以多次將整個地球轉變為完全可持續的狀況。

So I would like to just make it clear that there is a path to a fully sustainable future for humanity, and we -- our goal at Tesla is to accelerate progress on that path as much as humanly possible. So yes, so we were ramping up Megapack production. And we expect it to grow at a rate quite a bit faster than our legal output.

因此，我想明確表示，人類有一條通向完全可持續未來的道路，我們——我們在特斯拉的目標是盡可能加快這條道路上的進步。所以是的，所以我們正在提高 Megapack 的產量。我們預計它的增長速度將比我們的合法產出快得多。

So in conclusion, we are taking a view that we want to keep making and selling as many cars as we can. We believe we can keep pushing for strong volume growth while retaining the industry's best operating margins. As we mentioned many times before, we want to be the best manufacturer. But really, manufacturing technology will be our most important long-term strength. And we'll talk more about our upcoming plans at the March 1 Investor Day. And lastly, I want to once again thank all of our employees for delivering another record-breaking year. Congratulations, guys.

所以總而言之，我們的觀點是我們希望繼續製造和銷售盡可能多的汽車。我們相信我們可以繼續推動強勁的銷量增長，同時保持行業最佳的營業利潤率。正如我們之前多次提到的，我們想成為最好的製造商。但實際上，製造技術將是我們最重要的長期優勢。我們將在 3 月 1 日的投資者日詳細討論我們即將推出的計劃。最後，我想再次感謝我們所有的員工創造了又一個破紀錄的一年。恭喜，伙計們。

Thanks, Elon. And I think Zach has some opening remarks as well.

謝謝，伊隆。我認為 Zach 也有一些開場白。

Yes. Thanks, Martin. So as Elon mentioned, 2022 was a terrific year for Tesla. I also want to congratulate the Tesla team and also say thank you to our suppliers for your support during quite a volatile year.

是的。謝謝，馬丁。因此，正如埃隆所說，2022 年對特斯拉來說是非常棒的一年。我還要祝賀特斯拉團隊，並感謝我們的供應商在動蕩的一年中給予的支持。

On a full year basis, revenue increased over 50%, operating income doubled, free cash flows increased over 50%, and our margins remained industry-leading. Additionally, we continued to make progress on overhead efficiencies as non-GAAP OpEx as a percentage of revenue improved further.

從全年來看，收入增長超過 50%，營業收入翻了一番，自由現金流增長超過 50%，我們的利潤率保持行業領先。此外，隨著非 GAAP 運營支出佔收入的百分比進一步提高，我們在間接費用效率方面繼續取得進展。

For Q4 specifically, sequential and annual margin was impacted by ASP reductions as we are managing through COVID impacts in China, uncertainty around the consumer tax credit in the U.S. and a rising interest rate environment. Note that in 2022, rising interest rates alone had effectively increased the price of our cars in the U.S. by nearly 10%.

具體而言，對於第四季度，由於我們正在應對中國的 COVID 影響、美國消費者稅收抵免的不確定性以及利率上升環境，因此平均售價下降影響了連續利潤率和年度利潤率。請注意，在 2022 年，僅利率上升一項就有效地將我們在美國的汽車價格提高了近 10%。

Additionally, COGS per unit has increased on a year-over-year basis, driven primarily by 3 factors: first is raw materials and inflation led by lithium prices and discussed at length in previous calls; second, we are working through the early ramp of inefficiencies of our Austin and Berlin and in-house cell production factories; third, our vehicle mix over the last year has moved more heavily towards Model Y, which carries a slight cost premium to Model 3.

此外，單位 COGS 同比增長，主要受 3 個因素驅動：首先是鋰價格導致的原材料和通貨膨脹，並在之前的電話會議中進行了詳細討論；其次，我們正在努力解決奧斯汀和柏林以及內部電池生產工廠早期效率低下的問題；第三，我們去年的車輛組合更多地轉向了 Model Y，它比 Model 3 略有成本溢價。

Partially offsetting these impacts, we've continued to execute on Tesla controllable cost reductions, in line with the progress we've made in prior years. These improvements include our continued work to gradually move towards a regionally balanced build of vehicles. The energy business had its strongest year yet across all metrics, led by steady improvement in both retail and commercial storage. While much work remains to grow this business and improve costs, we believe we are on a good trajectory.

為了部分抵消這些影響，我們繼續執行特斯拉可控的成本削減，這與我們前幾年取得的進展保持一致。這些改進包括我們繼續努力逐步實現區域平衡的車輛製造。在零售和商業存儲穩步改善的帶動下，能源業務在所有指標上都創下了迄今為止最強勁的一年。雖然在發展這項業務和降低成本方面還有很多工作要做，但我們相信我們正處於良好的軌道上。

As we look towards 2023, we are moving forward aggressively leveraging our strength and cost. There are 3 key points I wanted to make here. First, on demand, as Elon mentioned, customer interest in our products remains high. Second, on cost reduction, we're holding steady on our plans to rapidly increase volume while improving overhead efficiency, which is the most effective method to retain strength in our operating margins.

展望 2023 年，我們正在積極利用我們的實力和成本向前邁進。我想在這裡提出 3 個關鍵點。首先，正如 Elon 提到的那樣，客戶對我們產品的興趣仍然很高。其次，在降低成本方面，我們堅持快速增加產量同時提高管理效率的計劃，這是保持營業利潤率的最有效方法。

In particular, we're accelerating improvements in our new factories in Austin, Berlin and in-house cells, where inefficiencies are the highest. But we are attacking every other area of cost and unwinding cost increases created for multiple years of COVID-related instability. This includes logistics, expedites, accumulation of material buffers, part premiums, productivity and overheads as an example.

特別是，我們正在加速改進位於奧斯汀、柏林的新工廠和效率最高的內部單元。但我們正在攻擊成本的所有其他領域，並解決因多年來與 COVID 相關的不穩定而造成的成本增加。這包括物流、加速、材料緩衝的積累、零件溢價、生產力和間接費用等。

As the world transitions from an inflationary to deflationary environment, we expect a strong partnership with our suppliers on this journey as well. In that, we've priced our products with a view towards a longer-term cost structure. Thus, there will be an impact on operating margin in the near term. However, we believe our margins will remain healthy and industry-leading over the course of the year.

隨著世界從通貨膨脹環境過渡到通貨緊縮環境，我們希望在此過程中也能與我們的供應商建立牢固的合作夥伴關係。在這方面，我們為產品定價時著眼於長期成本結構。因此，短期內將對營業利潤率產生影響。然而，我們相信我們的利潤率在這一年中將保持健康並處於行業領先地位。

Third, we are continuing to ensure funding is prioritized for our long-term road map. This includes expanding in-house cell production, bringing Cybertruck to market, development of our next-generation vehicle platform, expansion of our manufacturing footprint and growth of the energy business. We're looking forward to discussing these plans in more detail on our Investor Day in a month. Thank you.

第三，我們將繼續確保資金優先用於我們的長期路線圖。這包括擴大內部電池生產、將 Cybertruck 推向市場、開發我們的下一代汽車平台、擴大我們的製造足跡以及發展能源業務。我們期待在一個月後的投資者日更詳細地討論這些計劃。謝謝你。

Thank you very much, Zach. Let's now go to investor questions. The first question is, some analysts are claiming that Tesla orders, net of cancellations, came in at a rate less than half of production in the fourth quarter. This has raised demand concerns. Can you elaborate on order trends so far this year and how they compare to current production rates? I think...

非常感謝你，扎克。現在讓我們轉到投資者問題。第一個問題是，一些分析師聲稱，扣除取消訂單後，特斯拉第四季度的訂單量不到產量的一半。這引發了需求擔憂。您能否詳細說明今年到目前為止的訂單趨勢以及它們與當前生產率的比較情況？我認為...

We already answered that question.

我們已經回答了那個問題。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Demand far exceeds production, and we actually are making some small price increases as a result.

需求遠遠超過產量，因此我們實際上正在小幅提價。

Thank you. The second question is in similar vein. What has the initial reaction been to global price reductions in early 1Q 2023, specifically in terms of order intake levels? We've answered that one as well.

謝謝你。第二個問題與此類似。對 2023 年第一季度初全球降價的初步反應是什麼，特別是在訂單接收水平方面？我們也回答了那個問題。

So let's go to the next one. The next investor question is, will Tesla be able to take full advantage of advanced manufacturing production credits for battery cells/packs, so $3,700 per long-range Model 3 and Model Y, it's $45 a kilowatt-hour, for autos and energy products? And how much does Tesla expect to earn in the coming year from these credits?

那麼讓我們進入下一個。投資者的下一個問題是，特斯拉是否能夠充分利用電池/電池組的先進製造生產信貸，因此每輛遠程 Model 3 和 Model Y 3,700 美元，汽車和能源產品每千瓦時 45 美元？特斯拉希望在來年從這些積分中賺取多少？

I'll say a little bit about it, then I think Zach will add some. Long term, we expect these -- the value of these credits to be very significant. You can do the math. If we were to get anywhere near 1,000 gigawatt-hours of production or even a few hundred gigawatt-hours, it's very significant. So -- but the credits do rely upon domestic manufacturing. And in the case of Panasonic domestic manufacturing, we're splitting the value of the credits. So it will -- the value of credits this year will not be gigantic, but I think it could be gigantic. We think it probably will be very significant in the future.

我會說一點，然後我想 Zach 會補充一些。從長遠來看，我們預計這些 - 這些學分的價值非常重要。你可以算一下。如果我們要達到接近 1,000 吉瓦時甚至幾百吉瓦時的產量，那將是非常重要的。所以——但信貸確實依賴於國內製造業。在松下國內製造的情況下，我們正在拆分積分的價值。所以它會——今年的積分價值不會很大，但我認為它可能會很大。我們認為這在未來可能會非常重要。

Yes, just to add and input some boundaries on what we're expecting in terms of impact to Tesla for this year. So different products, we think, will get different amounts of credit. The regulations here are still in flux and there continues to be updates, so this is just our best understanding at the moment. But we think on the order of $150 million to $250 million per quarter this year and growing over the course of the year as our volumes grow.

是的，只是為了添加和輸入我們對今年對特斯拉的影響的預期界限。因此，我們認為，不同的產品將獲得不同數量的信貸。這裡的規定仍在不斷變化，並且不斷更新，所以這只是我們目前最好的理解。但我們認為今年每個季度的收入約為 1.5 億至 2.5 億美元，並且隨著我們銷量的增長而在這一年中不斷增長。

And part of the work we're doing here, which is part of what this incentive package is trying to incentivize, is, as Elon mentioned, to move more manufacturing onshore in the United States, which is Tesla's plans anyways. And so I think we're pretty well positioned over the coming years to take advantage of this.

正如 Elon 提到的，我們在這裡所做的部分工作，也就是這個激勵計劃試圖激勵的部分工作，是將更多的製造業轉移到美國本土，這無論如何都是特斯拉的計劃。因此，我認為我們在未來幾年中處於有利地位，可以利用這一點。

But then also part of what the goal of this incentive package is, is to improve adoption from our customers. And so we also want to use these incentives to improve affordability as we think about what the price points are in our products going forward. And so as we're thinking about our pricing changes in the U.S. a couple of weeks ago that we announced, we were looking at what the credit benefit to Tesla would be to make sure that customers are able to receive the benefit not only from this that were [received] to some extent, but also on the consumer-facing side, which is currently $7,500 per car of tax credit, assuming that -- subject to the MSRP caps and the income caps. So we want to use this to accelerate sustainable energy, which is our mission and also the goal of this bill.

但此激勵方案的部分目標是提高我們客戶的採用率。因此，當我們考慮未來產品的價格點時，我們也希望利用這些激勵措施來提高負擔能力。因此，當我們考慮幾週前我們宣布的在美國的定價變化時，我們正在研究特斯拉的信用收益是什麼，以確保客戶不僅能夠從中獲得收益在某種程度上 [收到]，但也在面向消費者的方面，目前每輛車的稅收抵免為 7,500 美元，假設 - 受 MSRP 上限和收入上限的約束。所以我們想用這個來加速可持續能源，這是我們的使命，也是這個法案的目標。

Thank you very much. The next question from investors is, after recent price cuts, analysts released expectations that Tesla automotive gross margin, excluding leasing and credits, will drop below 20% and average selling price around $47,000 across all models. Where do you see average selling price and gross margins after the price cuts?

非常感謝你。投資者的下一個問題是，在最近的降價之後，分析師發布了特斯拉汽車毛利率（不包括租賃和信貸）的預期，將降至 20% 以下，所有車型的平均售價約為 47,000 美元。您如何看待降價後的平均售價和毛利率？

Yes, go ahead, Zach.

是的，繼續吧，扎克。

Yes, I'll jump in on this. So there is certainly a lot of uncertainty about how the year will unfold, but I'll share what's in our current forecast for a moment. So based upon these metrics here, we believe that we'll be above both of the metrics that are stated in the question, so 20% automotive gross margin, excluding leases and credits, and then $47,000 ASP across all models.

是的，我會加入這個。因此，今年的發展肯定存在很多不確定性，但我會暫時分享一下我們目前的預測。因此，基於此處的這些指標，我們相信我們將高於問題中所述的兩個指標，因此汽車毛利率為 20%，不包括租賃和信貸，然後所有型號的 ASP 為 47,000 美元。

And so 2 other comments I want to make on this, just tactically on sequential ASP changes from Q4 to Q1. And just as a reminder, the ASP reduction is not as large as the reduction in configurator prices. As in Q4, we had backlog customers that we're delivering cars to at a lower price book given that backlogs had been so long for so much of 2022. But then also, there are various programs in place that we used in Q4 that lowered ASPs.

因此，我想就此發表另外 2 條評論，只是從戰術上講，從第四季度到第一季度的連續 ASP 變化。提醒一下，ASP 的降幅沒有配置器價格的降幅大。與第四季度一樣，我們有積壓的客戶，我們以較低的價格交付汽車，因為在 2022 年的大部分時間裡，積壓的訂單已經很長時間了。但是，我們在第四季度使用的各種計劃也降低了ASP。

The second comment I wanted to make here is that as a management team here, we're most focused on what our operating margin is. And so as other areas of the business become more important, particularly the energy business, which is growing faster than the vehicle business, and as we're heavily focused on operating leverage here, improving efficiency of our overheads, we think the right metric for us to be focused on is operating margin. And so I wanted to make sure that I shared that with the investor community as well because that is what we're primarily managing to now.

我想在這裡發表的第二條評論是，作為這裡的管理團隊，我們最關注的是我們的營業利潤率。因此，隨著業務的其他領域變得越來越重要，尤其是能源業務，它的增長速度快於汽車業務，並且由於我們非常關注這裡的運營槓桿，提高我們的間接費用效率，我們認為正確的指標我們要關注的是營業利潤率。所以我想確保我也與投資者社區分享了這一點，因為這是我們現在主要管理的事情。

Yes. Something that I think some of these smart retail investors understand but I think a lot of others maybe don't is that the -- every time we sell a car, it has the ability, just from uploading software, to have full self-driving enabled, and full self-driving is obviously getting better very rapidly. So that's actually a tremendous upside potential because all of those cars, with a few exceptions -- I mean only a small percentage of cars don't have Hardware 3.

是的。我認為這些聰明的散戶投資者中的一些人理解但我認為很多其他人可能不理解的是 - 每次我們出售汽車時，它都有能力，只需上傳軟件，就可以實現全自動駕駛啟用，並且完全自動駕駛顯然正在非常迅速地變得更好。所以這實際上是一個巨大的上升潛力，因為所有這些汽車，除了少數例外——我的意思是只有一小部分汽車沒有 Hardware 3。

So that means that there's millions of cars where full self-driving can be sold at essentially 100% gross margin. And the value of it grows as the autonomous capability grows. And then when it becomes fully autonomous, that is a value increase in the fleet. That might be the biggest asset value increase of anything in history. Yes.

所以這意味著有數百萬輛完全自動駕駛的汽車可以以基本上 100% 的毛利率出售。它的價值隨著自主能力的增長而增長。然後當它變得完全自主時，這就是車隊的價值增加。這可能是歷史上最大的資產價值增長。是的。

Thank you. Let's go to the next investor question. Since Elon started political influencing, polls from Morning Consult and YouGov show Tesla brand...

謝謝你。讓我們轉到下一個投資者問題。自從埃隆開始發揮政治影響力以來，Morning Consult 和 YouGov 的民意調查顯示特斯拉品牌……

YouGov. [You can crush them with your life].

YouGov。 [你可以用你的生命碾壓他們]。

Show Tesla brand favorability declining in 2022 and division among partisan lines. Such brand damage can impact demand. Does Tesla track favorability? And how will any brand image be mitigated?

顯示特斯拉品牌好感度在 2022 年下降以及黨派之間的分歧。這種品牌損害會影響需求。特斯拉會追踪好感度嗎？以及如何減輕任何品牌形象？

Well, let me check my Twitter account. Okay, so I've got 127 million followers. It continues to grow very rapidly. That suggests that I'm reasonably popular. It might not be popular with some people, but for the vast majority of people, my follower count speaks for itself. I have the most interactive account -- social media account, I think, maybe in the world, certainly on Twitter, and that actually predated the Twitter acquisition.

好吧，讓我檢查一下我的 Twitter 帳戶。好的，所以我有 1.27 億粉絲。它繼續快速增長。這表明我相當受歡迎。它可能不受某些人的歡迎，但對於絕大多數人來說，我的追隨者數量不言而喻。我有最具互動性的賬戶——社交媒體賬戶，我認為，也許在世界上，當然是在 Twitter 上，而且這實際上早於 Twitter 的收購。

So I think Twitter is actually an incredibly powerful tool for driving demand for Tesla. And I would really encourage companies out there of all kinds, automotive or otherwise, to make more use of Twitter and to use their Twitter accounts in ways that are interesting and informative, entertaining, and it will help them drive sales just as it has with Tesla. So the net value of Twitter, apart from a few people are complaining, is gigantic, obviously.

所以我認為 Twitter 實際上是一個非常強大的工具，可以推動對特斯拉的需求。我真的會鼓勵各種公司，無論是汽車公司還是其他公司，更多地使用 Twitter 並以有趣、信息豐富、有趣的方式使用他們的 Twitter 帳戶，這將幫助他們推動銷售，就像特斯拉。因此，除了少數人抱怨之外，Twitter 的淨值顯然是巨大的。

Thank you. Let's go to the next question. Please provide a detailed explanation of where you are on the 4680 ramp. What are the current roadblocks? And when do you expect to scale to 10,000 vehicles a year -- a week?

謝謝你。讓我們進入下一個問題。請詳細說明您在 4680 坡道上的位置。目前的障礙是什麼？你預計什麼時候可以擴大到每年 10,000 輛汽車——每週？

Yes. Thanks, Martin. First, I just want to say congrats and thanks to the Tesla 4680 team for achieving 1,000 a week in Q4. It was no small feat. Definitely a result of more than a couple of years of hard work. As far as where we stand, in Texas, 1 of 4 lines are in production, with the remaining 3 in stages of commissioning and install. Really, our 2023 goal as a 4680 team is to deliver a cost-effective ramp of 4680s well ahead of Cybertruck.

是的。謝謝，馬丁。首先，我只想表示祝賀和感謝 Tesla 4680 團隊在第四季度實現了每週 1000 輛。這是一個不小的壯舉。絕對是兩年多努力工作的結果。就我們目前的情況而言，在德克薩斯州，4 條生產線中的 1 條正在生產中，其餘 3 條處於調試和安裝階段。實際上，作為 4680 團隊，我們 2023 年的目標是在 Cybertruck 之前提供具有成本效益的 4680 坡道。

Focus areas are dialing in and improving the quality of the high-volume supply mechanical parts and driving factory process yields up as much as possible. Between 2 of those things, if we had achieved those key goals, we'll be well set up to -- for a major 4680 year in 2024.

重點領域是撥入並提高大批量供應機械零件的質量，並儘可能提高工廠流程的產量。在這兩件事之間，如果我們實現了這些關鍵目標，我們將做好準備——在 2024 年迎來一個重要的 4680 年。

Thank you. Next investor question is, Elon said previously that FSD Hardware 4 will most likely come first in Cybertruck. Is that still the current plan? Do you expect there to be an upgrade path for Hardware 3 cars to Hardware 4?

謝謝你。下一個投資者問題是，Elon 之前曾表示 FSD Hardware 4 最有可能首先出現在 Cybertruck 中。這還是現在的計劃嗎？您是否希望 Hardware 3 汽車有升級到 Hardware 4 的途徑？

Yes, Cybertruck will have Hardware 4. And to be clear, for 2023, Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to the bottom line, but it will be next year. So it's an incredible product. I can't wait to drive it personally. It will be the car that I drive every day. I actually just -- I'm wearing the T-shirt with this matched glass. And it's just one of those products that only comes along once in a while, and it's really special.

是的，Cybertruck 將擁有 Hardware 4。需要明確的是，到 2023 年，Cybertruck 不會對利潤做出重大貢獻，但明年會是。所以這是一個令人難以置信的產品。我迫不及待地想親自駕駛它。這將是我每天開的車。實際上，我只是——我穿著 T 卹搭配這個相配的玻璃杯。它只是那些偶爾出現一次的產品之一，它真的很特別。

So yes, so with respect to upgrading cars on -- that have Hardware 3, I don't think that will be needed. Hardware 3 will not be as good as Hardware 4, but I'm confident that Hardware 3 will so far exceed the average -- the safety of the average human. So (inaudible) how do we get ultimately to -- let's say, for argument's sake, if Hardware 3 can be, say, 200% or 300% safer than human, Hardware 4 might be 500% or 600%. It will be Hardware 5 beyond that.

所以是的，所以關於升級汽車 - 有硬件 3，我認為不需要。硬件 3 不如硬件 4，但我相信硬件 3 將遠遠超過平均水平——普通人的安全。那麼（聽不清）我們如何最終達到——假設，為了爭論的緣故，如果硬件 3 可以比人類安全 200% 或 300%，那麼硬件 4 可能是 500% 或 600%。它將是硬件 5。

But what really matters is are we improving the average safety on the road. But it is the cost and difficulty of retrofitting Hardware 3 with Hardware 4 is quite significant. So it would not be, I think, economically feasible to do so.

但真正重要的是我們是否提高了道路上的平均安全性。但是用Hardware 4改造Hardware 3的成本和難度是相當可觀的。所以我認為這樣做在經濟上是不可行的。

Thank you. The next question is for Zach. Zach, when do you think Tesla Insurance will become big enough revenue source to warrant providing more details in the financials of the business so investors can compare it to other insurance companies?

謝謝你。下一個問題是給扎克的。扎克，你認為特斯拉保險公司什麼時候會成為足夠大的收入來源，以保證提供更多的業務財務細節，以便投資者可以將其與其他保險公司進行比較？

Yes. I think it's probably going to take some time before this business is large enough for specific financial disclosures. But I'm happy to provide an update on where we stand in the business. So we're currently at a $300 million annual premium run rate as of the end of last year. We're growing 20% a quarter so it's growing faster than the growth in our vehicle business.

是的。我認為這家公司可能需要一段時間才能發展到足以披露特定的財務信息。但我很高興提供有關我們在業務中所處位置的最新信息。因此，截至去年年底，我們目前的年度保費運行率為 3 億美元。我們每季度增長 20%，所以它的增長速度超過了我們汽車業務的增長速度。

And in the states in which we're operating, on average, 17% of the customers in the states are using a Tesla Insurance product. And that number continues to tick up as we spend more time in markets. And we see most of the adoption occurring when folks take delivery of a new car, as they're setting up insurance for the first time as opposed to going back and switching when they already have insurance set up. So there's an inherent stickiness in the Insurance business.

在我們開展業務的各州，平均有 17% 的客戶使用特斯拉保險產品。隨著我們在市場上花費更多時間，這個數字還在繼續上升。而且我們看到大部分採用發生在人們收到新車時，因為他們是第一次設置保險，而不是在他們已經設置保險後返回並轉換。因此，保險業務具有內在的粘性。

No, go ahead.

沒有，繼續。

No, I was just going to say, just as a broader reminder on kind of the motivation for starting this business, it was to improve and still is to improve the total cost of ownership of our cars, given that we're seeing high premiums of insurance from third-party companies. And that remains our priority here. We'll obviously run this as a healthy business, but we want to make sure we keep our costs low and insurance stays affordable to our customers.

不，我只是想說，作為對開始這項業務的動機的一種更廣泛的提醒，它是為了改善並且仍然是為了改善我們汽車的總擁有成本，因為我們看到了高溢價來自第三方公司的保險。這仍然是我們的首要任務。我們顯然會將其作為一項健康的業務來運營，但我們希望確保我們保持低成本，並讓我們的客戶負擔得起保險。

Yes. And so there are 2 really important side benefit to our Tesla Insurance that are worth mentioning, one of which Zach alluded to, which is that just by Tesla operating insurance for our cars at a competitive rate, that makes the other car insurance companies offer better rates for Teslas. So it has a bigger effect than you think because it improves total cost -- or insurance costs even when they don't use Tesla Insurance, because now the [gigas] of the world have to compete with Tesla and cannot charge outrageous insurance for Teslas. So it's great. So it has an amplified effect, very important.

是的。因此，我們的特斯拉保險有兩個非常重要的附帶好處值得一提，其中一個是紮克提到的，就是特斯拉以具有競爭力的價格為我們的汽車經營保險，這使得其他汽車保險公司提供更好的服務特斯拉的價格。所以它的影響比你想像的要大，因為它提高了總成本——或者保險成本，即使他們不使用特斯拉保險，因為現在世界上的 [gigas] 必須與特斯拉競爭，不能為特斯拉收取離譜的保險費.所以這很棒。所以它有一個放大的效果，非常重要。

Then it is also giving us a good feedback loop into minimizing the cost of repair of Teslas for all Teslas worldwide, because we obviously want to minimize the cost of repairing a Tesla if it's in a collision and for Tesla Insurance. And previously, we didn't actually have good insight into that because the other insurance companies would cover the cost. And actually, the cost, in some cases, were unreasonably high.

然後，它也為我們提供了一個良好的反饋迴路，以最大限度地降低全球所有特斯拉的特斯拉維修成本，因為我們顯然希望在發生碰撞時將維修特斯拉的成本降至最低，並為特斯拉保險降低維修成本。以前，我們實際上並沒有很好地了解這一點，因為其他保險公司會承擔費用。實際上，在某些情況下，成本高得離譜。

So we've actually adjusted the design of the car and made changes in the software of the car to minimize the cost of repair, obviously minimize -- first, the best repair is no repair, avoid the accident entirely, which since every Tesla comes with the most advanced active safety in the world, whether or not you buy full self-driving, you still get the intelligence of full self-driving for active safety, active collision prevention. So it's giving us this really good feedback for, again, reducing cost -- total cost of ownership and also just figuring out how to get -- if somebody's car is in an accident -- most accidents are actually small. They're like a broken fender or scratched side of the car or something like, the vast majority of accidents.

所以我們實際上已經調整了汽車的設計並改變了汽車的軟件以最小化維修成本，顯然最小化 - 首先，最好的維修是不維修，完全避免事故，因為每輛特斯拉都會來擁有全球最先進的主動安全，不管你買不買全自動駕駛，你都可以獲得全自動駕駛的主動安全、主動防撞的智能。因此，它再次為我們提供了非常好的反饋，以降低成本——總擁有成本，以及弄清楚如何獲得——如果有人的汽車發生事故——大多數事故實際上都很小。它們就像破損的擋泥板或刮傷的汽車側面或類似的東西，絕大多數事故都是如此。

But we're actually solving how to get somebody's car repaired very quickly and efficiently and back in their hands. And like I said, those improvements actually apply then to old cars. And we're making -- just to emphasize another key point because some of these points might be [less], so I apologize for being repetitive.

但我們實際上是在解決如何快速有效地修理好某人的汽車，並讓他們回到他們手中。就像我說的，這些改進實際上適用於舊車。我們正在 - 只是為了強調另一個關鍵點，因為其中一些要點可能[更少]，所以我為重複而道歉。

But it's remarkable how small changes in design of the bumper and improving -- obviously improving the logistics of spare part -- providing spare parts needed for collision repair have an enormous effect on the repair cost. So if you're waiting for a part to get repaired and that part takes a month, now you've got a month of having to rent another car. It's extremely expensive. And of course, you're missing the car that you love and the one you actually want to drive. So this has actually a very significant effect on total cost of ownership and customer happiness.

但值得注意的是，保險槓設計的微小變化和改進——顯然改善了備件的物流——提供碰撞維修所需的備件對維修成本產生了巨大影響。因此，如果您正在等待某個零件被修理，而那個零件需要一個月的時間，那麼現在您有一個月的時間不得不租另一輛車。這是非常昂貴的。當然，您錯過了您喜愛的汽車和您真正想要駕駛的汽車。所以這實際上對總擁有成本和客戶滿意度有非常顯著的影響。

Thank you. The next question from investors is, is Cybertruck production still on track for midyear?

謝謝你。投資者的下一個問題是，Cybertruck 的生產是否仍按計劃在年中進行？

We do expect production to start, I don't know, maybe sometime this summer. But I always like try to downplay the start of production because the start of production is always very slow. It increases exponentially, but it's always very slow at first. So I wouldn't put too much thought in start of production. It's kind of when does volume production actually happen, and that's next year.

我們確實希望開始製作，我不知道，也許是今年夏天的某個時候。但我總是喜歡淡化生產的開始，因為生產的開始總是非常緩慢。它呈指數增長，但一開始總是很慢。所以我不會在生產開始時考慮太多。量產實際上是什麼時候發生的，那就是明年。

Yes, that's (inaudible). Like just to emphasize on that, we've started installation of all the production equipment here in Giga Texas, castings, GA, general assembly, body shops. We built all our beta vehicles, some more coming still in the next month, but as you said, the ramp will really come 2024.

是的，那是（聽不清）。就像強調這一點一樣，我們已經開始在 Giga Texas、鑄件、GA、總裝、車身車間安裝所有生產設備。我們製造了所有的測試版車輛，下個月還會有更多，但正如你所說，坡道真的會在 2024 年到來。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

And the last investor question is, with near-infinite global demand for energy storage, where should Tesla build the next Megapack factories? How many are needed on each continent?

最後一個投資者問題是，鑑於全球對儲能的需求幾乎是無限的，特斯拉應該在哪裡建造下一個 Megapack 工廠？每個大陸需要多少人？

It's a good question. It's not something we -- I think we'll provide an update about that in the future, but it is something we're thinking about very carefully. But really kind of like what is the fastest path to 1,000 gigawatt-hours a year of production. And you'll see announcements come out later this year and next that answer that question.

這是個好問題。這不是我們 - 我認為我們會在未來提供更新，但這是我們正在非常仔細考慮的事情。但真的有點像什麼是每年生產 1,000 吉瓦時的最快途徑。你會在今年晚些時候和明年看到回答這個問題的公告。

Thank you. Okay. And now let's go to analyst questions. The first analyst question comes from Rod Lache from Wolfe Research.

謝謝你。好的。現在讓我們來看看分析師的問題。第一個分析師問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

Just firstly, it sounds like your 1.8 million unit volume indication for this year is somewhat more supply-constrained than demand-constrained. Then I have a follow-up on cost. Is that an accurate statement?

首先，聽起來您今年 180 萬單位的銷量指示在某種程度上受供應限制多於需求限制。然後我對成本進行跟進。這是一個準確的說法嗎？

Well -- okay. I mean our internal production potential is actually closer to 2 million vehicles, but we were saying 1.8 million because, I don't know, there just always seems to be some freaking force majeure thing that happens somewhere on earth. And we don't control if there's like earthquakes, tsunamis, wars, pandemics, et cetera. So if it's a smooth year, actually, without some big supply chain interruption or massive problem, we actually have the potential to do 2 million cars this year. We're not committing to that, but I'm just saying that's the potential. So -- and I think there would be demand for that, too.

哦，那好吧。我的意思是我們的內部生產潛力實際上接近 200 萬輛，但我們說的是 180 萬輛，因為，我不知道，地球上的某個地方似乎總是會發生一些不可抗力的事情。如果發生地震、海嘯、戰爭、流行病等，我們無法控制。因此，如果今年是順利的一年，實際上，沒有大的供應鏈中斷或大問題，我們今年實際上有可能生產 200 萬輛汽車。我們沒有承諾，但我只是說這是潛力。所以 - 我認為也會有這樣的需求。

Yes. And on the cost side, the numbers that we just saw from you, as you pointed out, were weighed down by the 4680 ramp, the Berlin, Austin, Giga things, processes, not at rate. Can you give us a bit of an indication of the headwind that you're absorbing from those things like you did last quarter?

是的。在成本方面，正如您所指出的，我們剛剛從您那裡看到的數字被 4680 斜坡、柏林、奧斯汀、Giga 的事情、流程所拖累，而不是按速度。你能告訴我們一些你從上個季度所做的事情中吸收的不利因素嗎？

And then lastly, on cost, do you think that we can tease out an interesting data point from -- on where battery costs are headed from this announcement that you just made last night? If I'm correct, it looks like the investment cost per kilowatt-hour is less than half of what I've seen anywhere else, maybe $30 a kilowatt-hour for that capacity.

最後，關於成本，您認為我們可以梳理出一個有趣的數據點——關於電池成本從您昨晚剛剛發布的公告中走向何方？如果我是對的，看起來每千瓦時的投資成本不到我在其他任何地方看到的一半，對於該容量可能每千瓦時 30 美元。

I don't think we want to say the specific number, but it's interesting, if you look at the size of the -- of Giga Nevada that is allocated to make 100 gigawatt-hours, is a small fraction of the size that currently makes about 35.

我不認為我們想說出具體數字，但有趣的是，如果你看一下分配給 100 吉瓦時的 Giga Nevada 的規模，這只是目前規模的一小部分大約 35。

Yes. I mean the goals we've outlaid at Battery Day on [using] the investment required to deploy cell manufacturing, I mean that's been a key focus of ours, and the team is doing a good job hitting the marks on that focus.

是的。我的意思是我們在電池日上提出的 [使用] 部署電池製造所需的投資的目標，我的意思是這一直是我們的一個重點，並且團隊在這個重點上做得很好。

Yes. And it goes back to the point I was making. I said it several years ago, I think Tesla's really the competitive strength that will be, by far, the hardest for other companies to replicate is Tesla being just (expletive) good at manufacturing and having the most advanced manufacturing technology in the world. And if you've got that sort of advanced manufacturing toolbox, you can apply it to many things and we're applying it now to battery cells.

是的。這可以追溯到我提出的觀點。我幾年前就說過，我認為特斯拉真正的競爭優勢是，到目前為止，其他公司最難復制的是特斯拉（髒話）擅長製造並擁有世界上最先進的製造技術。如果你有那種先進的製造工具箱，你可以將它應用到很多事情上，我們現在正在將它應用到電池上。

I should also say that there -- we have other products in development. We're not going to announce them, obviously, but they're very exciting. And I think it will blow people's minds when they -- when we reveal them. Tesla has the most exciting product road map of any company on earth by a long shot. And we'll continue to, I think, be in that position. We've got more great ideas. I mean we know what to do here. So the future is very exciting.

我還應該說，我們還有其他產品正在開發中。顯然，我們不會宣布它們，但它們非常令人興奮。我認為當我們揭露它們時，人們會大吃一驚。從長遠來看，特斯拉擁有地球上任何公司中最令人興奮的產品路線圖。我認為，我們將繼續保持這種狀態。我們有更多好主意。我的意思是我們知道在這裡做什麼。所以未來是非常令人興奮的。

As I said in the last call, there's going to be bumps along the way and we'll probably have a pretty difficult recession this year, probably. I hope not, but probably. And so one can't predict the short-term sort of stock value because when there's a recession and people panic in the stock market, then prices of stocks -- well, the value of stocks can drop sometimes to surprisingly low levels. But long term, I am convinced that Tesla will be the most valuable company on earth.

正如我在上次電話會議中所說，一路上會遇到顛簸，今年我們可能會經歷一場相當艱難的衰退。我希望不會，但可能會。因此，人們無法預測短期的股票價值，因為當出現經濟衰退並且人們對股票市場感到恐慌時，股票價格 - 股票價值有時會跌至令人驚訝的低水平。但從長遠來看，我相信特斯拉將成為地球上最有價值的公司。

Thank you. And I think, Zach, there was a question on cost headwind in Q4.

謝謝你。我認為，扎克，第四季度存在成本逆風問題。

Yes. I mean our weighted average COGS for the company, if you were to assume Austin and Berlin were at the cost structure of our other factories, it was on the order of [2,000 to 2,500] of headwinds. So I think from there, you can back into margin impact of those factories as of end of Q4.

是的。我的意思是我們公司的加權平均銷貨成本，如果你假設奧斯汀和柏林處於我們其他工廠的成本結構中，那麼它的逆風量級約為 [2,000 至 2,500]。所以我認為從那裡，你可以回到第四季度末這些工廠的利潤率影響。

Thank you very much. And let's go to the next question from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.

非常感謝你。讓我們轉到 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu 的下一個問題。

Zach, actually, I'd like to follow up on the data point you just gave on cost. If I look back at the COGS per car, you guys bottom close to $36,000 in the middle of 2021. And then the number went up as you had to face with inflation in input costs and the ramp of Berlin and Texas. And this quarter, I think we are close to $40,000 and we peaked maybe close to $42,000 at some point last year.

扎克，實際上，我想跟進你剛剛給出的關於成本的數據點。如果我回顧一下每輛車的 COGS，你們在 2021 年年中的最低點接近 36,000 美元。然後這個數字上升了，因為你不得不面對投入成本的通貨膨脹以及柏林和德克薩斯州的增長。而本季度，我認為我們接近 40,000 美元，去年某個時候我們的峰值可能接近 42,000 美元。

And so my question from here is, how much time do you think it takes you to get back to this kind of $36,000, which would mean Berlin and Texas? And I think input cost, all that stuff is normalizing, is that like -- and that would be like a kind of like a 10% decline in the COGS per car. Is that something we can hope to see this year or is that too optimistic?

所以我的問題是，你認為你需要多長時間才能回到這種 36,000 美元，這意味著柏林和德克薩斯？而且我認為投入成本，所有這些東西都在正常化，就像 - 這就像每輛車的 COGS 下降 10% 一樣。這是我們今年希望看到的事情還是太樂觀了？

The Austin and Berlin ramp inefficiencies in 4680 will make a substantial amount of progress on that over the course of the year, and that's within Tesla's control. We're doing a lot of work on cost reduction outside of that. And we talked about supply chain costs, expedites, logistics, attacking everything.

奧斯汀和柏林 4680 的斜坡效率低下將在這一年中取得重大進展，這在特斯拉的控制範圍內。除此之外，我們還在降低成本方面做了大量工作。我們討論了供應鏈成本、加速、物流、攻擊一切。

On the raw materials and inflation side, where lithium is the large driver there and this was a meaningful source of cost increase for us, we'll have to see where lithium prices go. And we're not fully exposed to lithium prices, but I think in general, as what we've seen from our forecast here, cost per car of lithium in 2023 will be higher than 2022. So that's a headwind that would have to be overcome to return back to those levels. So I don't think we'll get there this year, but I think we'll make progress. And we'll continue to find ways to offset these raw material costs that we don't have control over.

在原材料和通貨膨脹方面，鋰是那裡的主要驅動因素，這對我們來說是一個有意義的成本增加來源，我們必須看看鋰價格的走向。我們並沒有完全受到鋰價格的影響，但我認為總的來說，正如我們從此處的預測中看到的那樣，2023 年每輛汽車的鋰成本將高於 2022 年。所以這是一個必須的逆風克服回到那些水平。所以我認為我們今年不會實現這一目標，但我認為我們會取得進展。我們將繼續尋找方法來抵消這些我們無法控制的原材料成本。

(inaudible), is there anything on that?

（聽不清），上面有什麼嗎？

Yes. Like on the non-cells raw material, we begin to capture benefits of indexes tapering out, but due to the length of various supply chains, it does take time before this is reflected in our financials. And while aluminum is down like 20% year-over-year, steel is about 30% down year-over-year, the global non-cells raw materials market continues to be influenced by geopolitical situations in Europe, high production cost due to labor cost increases and energy spikes and disruptions due to natural disasters like typhoon in Korea 4 months ago, pandemic lockdowns.

是的。與非細胞原材料一樣，我們開始獲得指數逐漸減少的好處，但由於各種供應鏈的長度，這確實需要時間才能反映在我們的財務中。雖然鋁同比下降約 20%，鋼同比下降約 30%，但全球非電池原材料市場繼續受到歐洲地緣政治局勢的影響，勞動力導致的高生產成本由於自然災害（例如 4 個月前在韓國發生的颱風）、大流行性封鎖，成本增加、能源激增和中斷。

So we believe that meaningful price corrections will ultimately come, but it remains uncertain exactly when. In the meantime, we continue to redesign supply chain to make it more efficient and work with our supplier partners to find more efficiencies, streamline logistics and transportation to produce cars.

因此，我們相信有意義的價格調整最終會到來，但具體時間仍不確定。與此同時，我們繼續重新設計供應鏈以提高其效率，並與我們的供應商合作夥伴合作以提高效率、簡化物流和運輸以生產汽車。

Sorry, do you want to go say something?

對不起，你想去說些什麼嗎？

I was going to say, we're also -- our fleet is starting to mature, the 3, Y fleet. And we're gathering a lot of data out of that fleet to understand how we can sort of bring some margin that we didn't know we had out of the product. So over the course of 2023, on the powertrain side, we're actually going to go after sort of some materials where we're paying for more performance than we need or we have more content than we need without impacting reliability at all. And that will actually add up to a pretty significant cost reduction on the powertrain side over the course of 2023. So we're not just sort of relying on supply. We're also doing design actions to bring cost out.

我想說的是，我們也——我們的艦隊開始成熟，即 3、Y 艦隊。我們正在從該機隊中收集大量數據，以了解我們如何能夠帶來一些我們不知道我們從產品中獲得的利潤。因此，在 2023 年的過程中，在動力總成方面，我們實際上將追求一些材料，在這些材料中，我們為超出我們需要的性能付出了代價，或者我們擁有超出我們需要的內容，而根本不會影響可靠性。在 2023 年期間，這實際上將在動力總成方面顯著降低成本。所以我們不僅僅是依賴供應。我們也在進行設計活動以降低成本。

My guess is if the recession is a serious one, and I think it probably will be but I hope it isn't, that would lead to meaningful decreases in almost all of our input costs. So we expect to see deflation in our input costs most likely, which would then lead to, yes, better margin. I'm just guessing here. So this is -- that would be my guess.

我的猜測是，如果經濟衰退是一場嚴重的經濟衰退，我認為它可能會是但我希望不是，那將導致我們幾乎所有投入成本的顯著下降。因此，我們預計我們的投入成本最有可能出現通貨緊縮，這將導致更高的利潤率。我只是在這裡猜測。所以這是——這是我的猜測。

So as a quick follow-up, Elon, I was thinking about like FSD, and when you look at like the situation today compared to a year ago, it's -- like the progress has been like amazing in the quality of the product but also its rollout. And so I was wondering, how much is this like impacting the take rate of FSD today? So do you already see that people are getting more excited by FSD because they see it around them on 400,000 cars and they see the value of the service already? Or is that too early to really see like -- to expect like an uptick in the take rate?

因此，作為快速跟進，Elon，我在考慮像 FSD，當你看看今天的情況與一年前相比，它是——就像產品質量方面的進步一樣驚人，而且它的推出。所以我想知道，這對今天 FSD 的採用率有多大影響？那麼您是否已經看到人們對 FSD 越來越興奮，因為他們在 400,000 輛汽車上看到了它，並且他們已經看到了這項服務的價值？還是現在還不能真正看到 - 期望採納率上升？

The trend is very strong towards use of FSD. And as you alluded to, the -- with each incremental improvement, the enthusiasm obviously increases. And so I think something that still a lot of people out there don't quite appreciate is that Tesla -- of course, Tesla is as much as a software company as a hardware company, but Tesla is really one of the world's leading AI companies. This is kind of a big deal with AI on the software side and on the hardware side.

使用 FSD 的趨勢非常強烈。正如你提到的，隨著每一次漸進的改進，熱情都會明顯增加。所以我認為還有很多人不太欣賞特斯拉——當然，特斯拉既是一家軟件公司，也是一家硬件公司，但特斯拉確實是世界領先的人工智能公司之一.這對人工智能在軟件方面和硬件方面來說都是一件大事。

With the Hardware 3 inference computer, still the most efficient inference computer in the world despite being, at this point, 5 years old from the design point. And with Hardware 4 coming and then Hardware 5 beyond that where there are significant leaps. And the Dojo computer, we expect to be using that operationally at Tesla later this year. And we're seeing just a lot of world-class AI talent join the company.

憑藉 Hardware 3 推理計算機，它仍然是世界上最高效的推理計算機，儘管此時距設計點已有 5 年曆史。隨著 Hardware 4 的到來，然後是 Hardware 5 之後，出現了重大飛躍。還有 Dojo 計算機，我們預計今年晚些時候將在 Tesla 投入運營。我們看到很多世界級的 AI 人才加入了公司。

There's also the long-term potential of Optimus where we're able to use our expertise in electric motors and power electronics, batteries and advanced manufacturing to be able to make a humanoid robot that is actually useful and can be made at high volume with exceptional capabilities because of the autopilot AI that -- where we take the -- because the car is like a robot on 4 wheels and Optimus is a robot on legs.

Optimus 也有長期潛力，我們可以利用我們在電動機和電力電子、電池和先進製造方面的專業知識，製造出真正有用的人形機器人，並且可以大批量生產，性能卓越由於自動駕駛 AI 的能力——我們採用的地方——因為汽車就像一個有 4 個輪子的機器人，而 Optimus 是一個有腿的機器人。

But the -- as we get closer and closer to solving real-world AI, and we don't see anyone even close to us in achieving this, the value -- I think you appreciate this and a few others do, but most don't know what I'm talking about. And so -- but it's -- this is the thing that has order of magnitude, potential market cap improvement for Tesla.

但是——隨著我們越來越接近解決現實世界的 AI，我們沒有看到任何人在實現這一點上與我們接近，價值——我想你和其他一些人會欣賞這一點，但大多數人不不知道我在說什麼。因此——但它是——這對特斯拉來說具有數量級、潛在的市值提升。

And the next question comes from Alex Potter from Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Alex Potter。

So a quick 1 on FSD. This is, I guess, for Zach. Obviously, you unlocked some deferred revenue in the quarter that will translate presumably into higher margins on every incremental sale going forward so long as people opt in for FSD. But was wondering if you're able to disclose the percentage of the $15,000 price that you're not going to be able to recognize as revenue upfront rather than deferred.

所以 FSD 的快速 1。我猜這是給 Zach 的。顯然，您在本季度解鎖了一些遞延收入，只要人們選擇 FSD，這可能會轉化為未來每次增量銷售的更高利潤。但是想知道您是否能夠披露 15,000 美元的價格中您將無法確認為前期收入而不是遞延收入的百分比。

Yes. I mean the way that we've structured this is a full self-driving package has 2 components. There's enhanced autopilot, the price of which is listed on the website. We fully recognize that. Then there's an incremental, which is for the additional features of full self-driving offers, and we've released a portion of that. And then there's a minority of the total package that's remaining that will be released over time as software updates are there. .

是的。我的意思是我們構建這個完整的自動駕駛包的方式有 2 個組件。有增強型自動駕駛儀，其價格在網站上列出。我們完全認識到這一點。然後是增量，用於完全自動駕駛產品的附加功能，我們已經發布了其中的一部分。然後隨著軟件更新的出現，剩餘的總軟件包中有一小部分將隨著時間的推移而發布。 .

And in our shareholder letter, in addition to disclosing the dollar amount of the deferred revenue release, we also included in there the dollar value of the balance of unreleased deferred revenue that will be released over time with future software updates.

在我們的股東信中，除了披露遞延收入釋放的美元金額外，我們還包括了未釋放的遞延收入餘額的美元價值，這些收入將隨著未來軟件更新的推移而釋放。

Okay. Great. And then maybe 1 additional question here on the incremental capacity in Nevada, the 4680s that you're planning. It's a lot of batteries, basically, and presumably, you won't be putting all of those in Tesla Semi. So I guess 2 questions about that incremental capacity.

好的。偉大的。然後可能還有 1 個關於內華達州增量容量的問題，即您正在計劃的 4680。這是很多電池，基本上，你不會把所有這些都放在 Tesla Semi 中。所以我想有 2 個關於增量容量的問題。

First, is it correct to assume that all of those 4680s are going to be more or less fungible and usable in your entire range of products? And if the answer is yes, then if you had to guess, how do you think that 100 gigawatt-hours would be allocated between your various end markets?

首先，假設所有這些 4680 或多或少將在您的整個產品系列中具有可替代性和可用性是否正確？如果答案是肯定的，那麼如果您不得不猜測，您認為如何在各個終端市場之間分配 100 吉瓦時？

I don't know. This is a bit too much guessing at this point.

我不知道。在這一點上，這是一個有點太多的猜測。

Yes.

是的。

But -- yes. Yes.

但是，是的。是的。

I mean you're right. Not all of the 100 gigawatt-hours are going to go into the Semi trucks. That is correct.

我的意思是你是對的。並非所有 100 吉瓦時的電力都將用於 Semi 卡車。那是正確的。

I alluded to a number of future products. Those future products would use the 4680.

我提到了一些未來的產品。那些未來的產品將使用 4680。

Thank you. And the next question comes from George from Canaccord Research.

謝謝你。下一個問題來自 Canaccord Research 的喬治。

So you recently adjusted prices, and that may have put many of your competitors in the back foot. In addition to that, capital markets have recently gotten a lot tougher. So with those factors in mind, I'm curious how you see the current competitive landscape changing over the next few years. And who do you see as your chief competitors 5 years from now?

所以你最近調整了價格，這可能讓你的許多競爭對手處於不利地位。除此之外，資本市場最近變得更加艱難。因此，考慮到這些因素，我很好奇您如何看待未來幾年當前的競爭格局發生變化。您認為 5 年後您的主要競爭對手是誰？

Five years is a long time. As with the Tesla order part, AI team, until late last night, and just we're asking (inaudible), so who do we think is close to Tesla with -- a general solution for self-driving? And we still don't even know really who would even be a distant second. So yes, it really seems like we're -- I mean right now, I don't think you could see a second place with a telescope, at least we can't. So that won't last forever. So in 5 years, I don't know, probably somebody has figured it out. I don't think it's any of the car companies that we're aware of. But I'm just guessing that someone might figure it out eventually. So yes.

五年是一段很長的時間。至於特斯拉訂單部分，人工智能團隊，直到昨晚深夜，我們才問（聽不清），所以我們認為誰與特斯拉接近 - 自動駕駛的通用解決方案？而且我們甚至還不知道誰會遙遙領先。所以是的，看起來我們真的是——我的意思是現在，我不認為你可以用望遠鏡看到第二個地方，至少我們不能。所以這不會永遠持續下去。所以在 5 年內，我不知道，可能有人已經弄明白了。我不認為這是我們所知道的任何汽車公司。但我只是猜測有人最終可能會弄明白。所以是的。

I mean beyond that, Elon, like in the vehicle space, even though the market is shrinking, we're growing and EVs have doubled almost year-over-year. So like it -- whoever keeps up with the trend of EVs is going to be our competitor. The Chinese are scary, we always say that. But like a lot of people always look at the EV market share, but we always look at it is how much of the total vehicle space do we have, and we're just going to keep growing in that space. There's 95% for us to go get.

我的意思是，除此之外，埃隆，就像在汽車領域一樣，儘管市場正在萎縮，但我們仍在增長，電動汽車幾乎同比增長了一倍。所以喜歡它 - 誰跟上了電動汽車的趨勢，誰就會成為我們的競爭對手。中國人很可怕，我們總是這麼說。但就像很多人總是關注電動汽車市場份額一樣，但我們總是關注我們擁有的總車輛空間有多少，我們將在該領域保持增長。我們有 95% 的時間可以完成。

Yes. And I don't want to say like -- I think we have a lot of respect for the car companies in China. They are the most competitive in the world. That is our experience. And the Chinese market is the most competitive. They work the hardest and they work the smartest. That's -- so a lot of respect for the China car companies that we're competing against. And so if I would have guessed, there are probably some company out of China as the most likely to be second to Tesla.

是的。我不想說——我認為我們非常尊重中國的汽車公司。他們是世界上最具競爭力的。這是我們的經驗。而中國市場是最具競爭力的。他們工作最努力，他們工作最聰明。那是——非常尊重與我們競爭的中國汽車公司。因此，如果我猜到的話，可能有一些中國以外的公司最有可能成為僅次於特斯拉的公司。

We are -- our Tesla China team is winning in China. And I think we actually are able to attract the best talent in China. So hopefully, that continues. So yes, so we're fired up about the future, and yes, well, it's going to be great.

我們——我們的特斯拉中國團隊正在中國取得勝利。我認為我們實際上能夠吸引中國最優秀的人才。所以希望這種情況繼續下去。所以是的，所以我們對未來充滿熱情，是的，它會很棒。

Just as a follow-up, the Inflation Reduction Act has created huge tax incentives for commercial vehicles. You mentioned an incredibly interesting product pipeline. Are there maybe some plans to accelerate commercial vehicle form factors outside of the Tesla Semi to help accelerate EV adoption?

作為後續行動，《降低通貨膨脹法》為商用車創造了巨大的稅收優惠。你提到了一個非常有趣的產品管道。是否有一些計劃可以在 Tesla Semi 之外加速商用車的外形尺寸，以幫助加速 EV 的採用？

Well, I was basically saying that, yes, but I'm not going to give you details because this is -- nice try, nice try. Yes, of course, of course. So -- we actually always look at like, what is the limiting factor for new vehicles? Because if the -- for the longest time, we've been constrained on total cell lithium-ion production output. And so people said, like, why not bring this other car to market or that other car to market? Well, it doesn't really help if all you're doing is shuffling around the batteries from 1 car to another. In fact, it hurts because you add complexity but you don't add incremental volume.

好吧，我基本上是說，是的，但我不會給你細節，因為這是——很好的嘗試，很好的嘗試。是的，當然，當然。所以——我們實際上總是在看，新車的限制因素是什麼？因為如果 - 在最長的時間裡，我們一直受到鋰離子電池總產量的限制。所以人們說，為什麼不把這輛或那輛汽車推向市場呢？好吧，如果您所做的只是將電池從一輛車換到另一輛車，那並沒有什麼幫助。事實上，這很痛苦，因為你增加了複雜性，但沒有增加增量。

So it's sort of pointless, in fact, like counterproductive to add model complexity without solving the availability of lithium-ion batteries. So as we get -- so we want new product introduction to match where the cells are available or that new product to use those cells without cannibalizing the cells of the other cars. That's the actual limiting factor if we need new models, not anything else, really.

所以這有點毫無意義，事實上，在不解決鋰離子電池可用性的情況下增加模型複雜性會適得其反。因此，當我們得到 - 所以我們希望新產品的推出與可用電池的位置相匹配，或者新產品使用這些電池而不蠶食其他汽車的電池。如果我們需要新模型，那才是真正的限制因素，而不是其他任何東西。

Thank you. Let's go to the next question. The next question comes from William Stein from Truist.

謝謝你。讓我們進入下一個問題。下一個問題來自 Truist 的 William Stein。

Elon, you started to answer this earlier, but I'd like to ask this question about the AI elements of your business and ask if you could comment on progress around Dojo and Optimus and your anticipation for the likelihood, for example, for the company to disconnect the GPU cluster in favor of Dojo and to have some market achievement in Optimus.

Elon，你早些時候開始回答這個問題，但我想問這個關於你的業務的 AI 元素的問題，並詢問你是否可以評論圍繞 Dojo 和 Optimus 的進展以及你對可能性的預期，例如，對公司斷開 GPU 集群以支持 Dojo，並在 Optimus 中取得一些市場成就。

Yes. I mean, obviously, with -- because we're still at the early stages, there are big [error pause] in any predictions. It's like easy -- I think easy to predict long term but hard to predict the time in between now and then. But it's -- we think Dojo will be competitive with the NVIDIA H1 at the end of this year and then hopefully surpass it next year. And the key there is, I think, what's the energy usage required for a given amount of -- if you're training a frame of video, how -- what's the energy cost required to do that training?

是的。我的意思是，很明顯，因為我們仍處於早期階段，所以任何預測都存在很大的[錯誤停頓]。這很容易——我認為預測長期很容易，但很難預測現在和那時之間的時間。但它——我們認為 Dojo 將在今年年底與 NVIDIA H1 競爭，然後有望在明年超越它。關鍵是，我認為，給定數量所需的能量使用量是多少——如果你正在訓練一幀視頻，如何訓練——進行該訓練所需的能量成本是多少？

And we think probably -- we said this already actually at AI Day 2, so it's not new information, but we do see potential for an order of magnitude improvement relative to GPU, what GPUs can do for Dojo, which is obviously very specialized for AI training. It's hyper-specialized for AI training. It's not -- wouldn't be great for other things, but it should be extremely good for AI training.

我們認為可能——我們實際上已經在 AI Day 2 上說過了，所以這不是新信息，但我們確實看到了相對於 GPU 數量級改進的潛力，GPU 可以為 Dojo 做些什麼，這顯然非常專門用於人工智能訓練。它非常適合 AI 訓練。它不是 - 對其他事情來說不是很好，但它應該對人工智能培訓非常有用。

So just like if you do an ASIC or something, it's going to be better than a CPU. This is sort of, in some ways, like a giant ASIC. And we're able to -- since we're operating one of the biggest GPU clusters in the world already, the -- we've got a good sense of how efficient the GPU clusters operate and what Dojo needs to do in order to be competitive. But we think that it does have a fundamental architectural advantage because it's designed not to be -- the GPU is trying to do many things for many people. It's trying to do graphics, video games. It's doing crypto mining. It's doing a lot of things.

所以就像你做一個 ASIC 之類的東西，它會比 CPU 更好。在某些方面，這有點像一個巨大的 ASIC。而且我們能夠 - 因為我們已經在運營世界上最大的 GPU 集群之一，所以 - 我們非常了解 GPU 集群的運行效率以及 Dojo 需要做什麼才能有競爭力。但我們認為它確實具有基本的架構優勢，因為它的設計目的不是——GPU 試圖為許多人做很多事情。它正在嘗試做圖形，視頻遊戲。它正在進行加密挖掘。它正在做很多事情。

Dojo is just doing 1 thing, and that is training. And we're also optimizing the low-level software. So it -- at a very sort of fair amount of level. So it's just insanely good at efficient training. And the intercommunication between the Dojo modules is extremely high. It's not going across an Ethernet cable. It's -- so anyway, the -- we see a path to an order of magnitude improvement in the energy efficiency or given unit of training. But we also have to achieve that. And so when will it be achieved? It's hard to say, but we do see a path to get there.

Dojo 只做一件事，那就是訓練。我們也在優化底層軟件。所以它 - 在相當多的水平上。所以它非常擅長高效訓練。並且Dojo模塊之間的互通性極高。它不會通過以太網電纜。這是——所以無論如何，——我們看到了一條在能源效率或給定培訓單位方面提高一個數量級的途徑。但我們也必須實現這一目標。那麼什麼時候可以實現呢？很難說，但我們確實看到了實現目標的途徑。

And then also on inference, like once you've got something trained, well, if you want to have a product that's a consequence of that training, that product may not be anything to do with cars, then the efficiency of inference is extremely important. And we also have, by far, the most efficient inference computer in -- at the -- with the FSD computer in the car. This has potential for products that aren't even really in automotive.

然後還有推理，比如一旦你接受了一些訓練，那麼，如果你想擁有一種訓練結果的產品，該產品可能與汽車無關，那麼推理的效率就非常重要.到目前為止，我們還擁有最高效的推理計算機——在汽車中的 FSD 計算機。這對於甚至不是真正用於汽車的產品都有潛力。

Thank you. And William, do you have a follow-up?

謝謝你。威廉，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes. It sounds like the 1.8 million units you expect this year is supply, not demand-limited supply, it sounds like, by the lithium batteries. If you were to become demand-limited, can you talk to us about your propensity to use price and your relatively high industry margins to grow units and share?

是的。聽起來您預計今年的 180 萬個是供應，而不是需求限制供應，聽起來像是鋰電池。如果你要成為需求受限的，你能和我們談談你使用價格和你相對較高的行業利潤率來增加單位和份額的傾向嗎？

Yes. To be clear, the 1.8 million is not cell supply-limited. And yes, I mean we did address that number earlier in the call. Elon, do you want to answer?

是的。需要明確的是，這 180 萬並不是電池供應的限制。是的，我的意思是我們在電話會議的早些時候確實解決了這個問題。 Elon，你想回答嗎？

Yes. It's roughly -- cell supply is roughly matched with that. And the 1.8 million cars, if we get lucky, it could be more. And then the rest would go into stationary storage, the Powerwall and Megapack. So yes.

是的。大致 - 電池供應與此大致匹配。而這 180 萬輛汽車，如果我們幸運的話，可能會更多。然後其餘的將進入固定存儲，Powerwall 和 Megapack。所以是的。

Okay. Let's have the final question from Adam Jonas.

好的。讓我們來聽聽 Adam Jonas 的最後一個問題。

Elon, first question is, is it time for Tesla to significantly expand the captive finco? I mean you only have like $4.5 billion of receivables. It's basically nothing compared to other big auto companies. And then I have a follow-up.

Elon，第一個問題是，特斯拉是時候大幅擴大專屬金融公司了嗎？我的意思是你只有大約 45 億美元的應收賬款。與其他大型汽車公司相比，它基本上算不了什麼。然後我有一個後續行動。

Zach maybe is best to answer that.

扎克也許是最好的回答。

Yes. I mean the way that we've been using captive financing so far is to plug what we believe to be gaps in the market of existing third-party products. And so we have a couple of offerings in Europe. We do loans for our energy business, retail energy business here in the U.S. We do leasing and we do a small amount of U.S. loans that are very targeted.

是的。我的意思是，到目前為止，我們一直使用專屬融資的方式是填補我們認為現有第三方產品市場上的空白。所以我們在歐洲有一些產品。我們在美國為我們的能源業務、零售能源業務提供貸款。我們提供租賃服務，我們提供少量非常有針對性的美國貸款。

And so we're using captives to support market caps, as I mentioned. So basically, it's a vehicle to support vehicle sales, make sure customers have access. I do think there's opportunity here to continue to grow this. We are growing it slowly here. It is a consumer of cash, so we're being cautious on how we do that. But the plumbing is in place to do a lot more here. And I think we'll have to see how things unfold over the course of the year and make decisions real time as to how much we ramp it up versus ramp it back.

因此，正如我提到的，我們正在使用俘虜來支持市值。所以基本上，它是一種支持汽車銷售的工具，確保客戶可以使用。我確實認為這裡有機會繼續發展。我們在這裡慢慢地成長。它是現金的消費者，所以我們對如何做到這一點持謹慎態度。但是管道已經到位，可以在這裡做更多的事情。而且我認為我們必須看看一年中事情的發展情況，並實時決定我們將其提高多少與降低多少。

I think if we see a severe recession this year, which, like I said, hopefully, we don't, in severe recessions, cash is king big time because it's in such short supply. So we want to be cautious about using cash for loans and that sort of thing for cars. I feel we're in a very strong position to get through a recession because we really don't have any debt, and we've got over $20 billion of cash, which is great. The cash is earning a ridiculous return, not a good return, so it's like nontrivial. And the interest rate actually in the $20 billion is earning like quite a good amount.

我認為，如果我們今年看到嚴重的經濟衰退，就像我說的那樣，希望我們不會在嚴重的經濟衰退中出現，現金是王道，因為它供不應求。所以我們要謹慎使用現金貸款和汽車之類的東西。我覺得我們在度過經濟衰退方面處於非常有利的地位，因為我們真的沒有任何債務，而且我們有超過 200 億美元的現金，這很棒。現金正在賺取可笑的回報，而不是好的回報，所以這很重要。實際上，這 200 億美元的利率收入相當可觀。

And I've made this point on Twitter a few times. I'm sure a lot of people on this call understand the fact -- the basic value of a security is a function of the risk-free rate or we'll see how risk-free it really is, but the T-bill rate. So if you've got -- I think the -- if I recall correctly, the S&P 500 has a long-term rate of return of roughly 6%. And so I think the fed needs to be very cautious about having a fed rate that potentially exceeds 6%.

我已經在 Twitter 上多次強調過這一點。我相信這次電話會議中的很多人都明白這個事實——證券的基本價值是無風險利率的函數，或者我們會看到它到底有多無風險，但國庫券利率.因此，如果你有——我想——如果我沒記錯的話，標準普爾 500 指數的長期回報率約為 6%。因此，我認為美聯儲需要對可能超過 6% 的聯邦利率非常謹慎。

Like if we see deflation, and I think we are seeing deflation, then you would add the deflation number to the "risk-free rate" from the fed. And as that starts to exceed 6%, now you're starting to exceed the long-term return of the S&P 500 and starts to become questionable as to why don't just put your money in T bills or savings account essentially instead of in the S&P 500 if the S&P 500 is variable and the bank interest rate is not? This is -- so basically, the fed is at risk of crushing the value of all equities. Quite a serious danger.

就像我們看到通貨緊縮一樣，我認為我們正在看到通貨緊縮，那麼你會把通貨緊縮數字加到美聯儲的“無風險利率”上。隨著它開始超過 6%，現在你開始超過標準普爾 500 指數的長期回報，並開始質疑為什麼不把錢存入國庫券或儲蓄賬戶，而不是存入標準普爾 500 指數如果標準普爾 500 指數是可變的而銀行利率不是？這是 - 所以基本上，美聯儲有壓垮所有股票價值的風險。相當嚴重的危險。

And just a follow-up. I don't want to steal thunder from March 1 down in Austin, but how close are we to that step-change improvement in BOM cost where you could sell an EV for under $25,000 or $30,000 and actually generate a profit, that kind of real moving assembly line moment in manufacturing? Again, I don't want to steal the thunder, but just if you wanted to kind of wrap up with thoughts there, that would be helpful.

只是一個跟進。我不想從 3 月 1 日起在奧斯汀搶風頭，但我們離 BOM 成本的階躍式改進還有多遠呢？在這種情況下，您可以以低於 25,000 美元或 30,000 美元的價格出售電動汽車並實際產生利潤，那種真實的在製造中移動流水線時刻？再一次，我不想搶風頭，但如果你想在那裡總結一下想法，那會很有幫助。

I mean I'd love to answer -- I'll probably be asking the same question, but we would be jumping the gun on future announcements.

我的意思是我很樂意回答——我可能會問同樣的問題，但我們會在未來的公告中搶先一步。

Fantastic. Thank you very much, everyone, for all your good questions, and we will see you again in 3 months' time.

極好的。非常感謝大家提出的所有好問題，我們將在 3 個月後再次見到您。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you. Bye-bye.

謝謝你。再見。