特斯拉 (TSLA) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

本季財務表現

  • 總營收:169 億美元,YoY +42%
  • 總毛利率:25%
  • 電動車部門營收:146 億美元,YoY +43%
  • 電動車毛利率:27.9%,YoY -4.6 個百分點
  • 調整後 EBITDA:37.91 億美元

本季營運成果

本季面對供應鏈挑戰,產量和毛利率皆有所下降,產量為 258,580 輛。日前上海產量下降造成的閒置產能和工廠重啟成本,為毛利率受影響主因,區域交付組合也有所衝擊。然本季佛蒙特和上海工廠產量良好,上海生產狀況已完全恢復。同時,柏林工廠超越周產 1,000 輛的目標,預計德州工廠在近幾個月也能達標 ,營業利益將來到歷史高點。目前電池使用仍以 2170 為主,且其產量足以供應今年所有的新車使用,4680 電池組的重要性在明年才將開始體現。

公司正著手解決工廠生產效率的問題,目前進展順利,但同時對營業利潤率產生影響。本期外匯產生負面影響,雖然公司已提高定價,但通膨、商品、及物流的成本仍持續增加。

能源部門毛利率和太陽能發電量皆為史上最高。

財務與投資概況

隨著波士頓和柏林工廠開始生產,相關的啟動費用逐漸下降,並反映在汽車的 COGS 上。公司將大部分比特幣轉換為法幣,以抵消資產的減值費用。主要因中國疫情的不確定,需增加公司流動性,損益淨成本約 1.06 億美元,公司也支出裁員相關之重組費用。

自由現金流受到上海工廠關閉相關的營運資金影響,然公司預計相關自由現金流會趨近穩定,Q3 將轉為收益。

營運展望

公司認為,德州和柏林工廠的低效率將對利潤有負面影響,但隨著產能提升影響會減少。全球定價將隨訂單積壓而上升,總經狀況造成的成本上升也將持續。

公司仍在努力實現今年 50% 的成長目標,儘管目標變得困難,公司認為在不發生重大變故的前提下,透過強而有力的執行是有可能的。

了解更多特斯拉(TSLA)相關資訊

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Second Quarter 2022 Q&A Webcast. My name is Martin Viecha, VP of Investor Relations; and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives. Our Q2 results were announced at about 3:00 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

    大家下午好,歡迎收聽特斯拉 2022 年第二季度網絡直播。我是投資者關係副總裁 Martin Viecha;今天,埃隆·馬斯克、扎卡里·柯克霍恩和其他一些高管也加入了我的行列。我們的第二季度業績在下午 3:00 左右公佈。我們在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上發布的更新平台中的中央時間。

  • During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions)

    在這次電話會議中,我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於許多風險和不確定性,包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性,實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。 (操作員說明)

  • But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

    但在我們進入問答環節之前,埃隆有一些開場白。埃隆?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Martin. So just as a Q2 recap, Q2 was a unique quarter for Tesla due to a prolonged shutdown of our Shanghai factory. But in spite of all these challenges, it was one of the strongest quarters in our history. Most importantly, in June, we achieved production records in both Fremont and Shanghai. And as a result, we have the potential for a record-breaking second half of the year.

    謝謝你,馬丁。因此,正如第二季度的回顧一樣,由於我們上海工廠的長時間關閉,第二季度對特斯拉來說是一個獨特的季度。但儘管存在所有這些挑戰,它仍然是我們歷史上最強勁的季度之一。最重要的是,6 月份,我們在弗里蒙特和上海都創下了生產記錄。因此,我們有可能在今年下半年創紀錄。

  • I do want to emphasize this is obviously subject to force majeure, things outside of our control. The past few years have been quite a few force majeures, and it's been kind of supply chain hell for several years. Credit to our awesome Tesla supply chain team for overcoming in saving difficult challenges. And huge thanks to the Tesla Shanghai factory team who sacrificed a lot to get the factory back up and running in June and achieve a record output.

    我想強調一下,這顯然是受不可抗力的影響,我們無法控制的事情。過去幾年發生了相當多的不可抗力,這幾年一直是供應鏈地獄。感謝我們出色的特斯拉供應鏈團隊克服了困難挑戰。非常感謝特斯拉上海工廠團隊為使工廠在 6 月份恢復正常運轉並實現創紀錄的產量做出了巨大的犧牲。

  • So also making good progress with production ramp with Berlin. We achieved an important milestone of 1,000 cars a week in June. And we're expecting -- sorry, our Giga Texas to exceed the 1,000-vehicle per week milestone and hopefully in the next few months.

    因此,與柏林的生產量也取得了良好的進展。我們在 6 月份實現了每週生產 1,000 輛汽車的重要里程碑。我們期待 - 抱歉,我們的 Giga Texas 將超過每週 1,000 輛汽車的里程碑,並希望在接下來的幾個月內。

  • To be clear, we're currently making the cars with the 2170 cells, and Drew Baglino will address some of the 4680 questions later in this call. But it is worth emphasizing that we have enough 2170 cells to satisfy all vehicle production for the remainder of the year. So we're not dependent on 4680. 4680 will be important next year but it is not important for this year.

    需要明確的是,我們目前正在使用 2170 電池製造汽車,Drew Baglino 將在本次電話會議稍後解決一些 4680 問題。但值得強調的是,我們有足夠的 2170 個電池來滿足今年剩餘時間的所有車輛生產。所以我們不依賴4680。4680明年很重要,但今年不重要。

  • That said, we have installed the second generation of manufacturing equipment for 4680 cells in Texas. And even at our established factories like Fremont and Shanghai, we continue to expand capacity.

    也就是說,我們已經在德克薩斯州安裝了用於 4680 電池的第二代製造設備。甚至在弗里蒙特和上海等老牌工廠,我們也在繼續擴大產能。

  • Regarding Autopilot, we have now deployed our FSD Beta with City Streets driving capability to over 100,000 owners. They're very happy with the capability of the system and we'll continue to improve it every week. We've now driven over 35 million miles with FSD Beta. That's more autonomous miles than any company we're aware of, I think probably more than -- it might be more than any -- all other companies combined. So -- and that mileage is growing exponentially.

    關於 Autopilot,我們現在已經為超過 100,000 名車主部署了具有城市街道駕駛能力的 FSD Beta。他們對系統的功能非常滿意,我們每週都會繼續改進它。我們現在已經使用 FSD Beta 行駛了超過 3500 萬英里。這比我們所知道的任何公司都擁有更多的自主里程,我認為可能超過 - 它可能超過任何 - 所有其他公司的總和。所以 - 里程數呈指數增長。

  • With regard to manufacturing and technology, about 5 or 6 years ago, we said we wanted to become the best manufacturer in the world and that is somewhat counterintuitively, to some people, will actually be, I think, our strongest competitive advantage. We're super pro-manufacturing here at Tesla. And in general, we want to encourage other companies to be super pro-manufacturing. And in general, I think it is a very important thing to do. We need to make stuff and make it efficiently and that's manufacturing.

    關於製造和技術,大約 5 或 6 年前,我們說我們想成為世界上最好的製造商,這有點違反直覺,對某些人來說,我認為這實際上是我們最強大的競爭優勢。在特斯拉,我們非常支持製造業。總的來說,我們希望鼓勵其他公司超級支持製造業。總的來說,我認為這是一件非常重要的事情。我們需要製造東西並有效地製造它,這就是製造。

  • So we've made a lot of advancements in manufacturing processes. As we now show in the shareholder deck, thanks to our -- the large castings, we make the world's largest castings. We reduced body welding robot count by 70% per unit of capacity in Austin and Berlin. So that's, call it, roughly a body shop that is roughly 3x smaller than would normally be the case. And I should say it's also lighter, cheaper and has superior noise vibration harshness. So it's good on every level.

    因此,我們在製造工藝方面取得了很大進步。正如我們現在在股東甲板上展示的那樣,由於我們的大型鑄件,我們製造了世界上最大的鑄件。我們在奧斯汀和柏林將每單位產能的車身焊接機器人數量減少了 70%。所以,稱之為,大約是一個比通常情況小大約 3 倍的車身修理廠。而且我應該說它也更輕、更便宜並且具有出色的噪音振動刺耳性。所以它在各個層面上都很好。

  • But this journey is not over. We'll bring another level of simplicity and manufacturing improvements with Cybertruck and future products that we're not quite ready to talk about now but I think will be very exciting to unveil in the future.

    但這段旅程還沒有結束。我們將通過 Cybertruck 和未來的產品帶來另一個層次的簡單性和製造改進,我們現在還沒有準備好談論這些,但我認為未來會非常令人興奮。

  • Our safety team also introduced a feature that tension seat builds, if the vision system detects imminent collision, which has never been done before. So you can imagine that if you have a seatbelt that only tensions upon impact, you have very little time to tension the seatbelt. If you've got to be -- the car has got to be crunching to trigger the seatbelt tensioner. But because we have vision, we can actually see that a collision is about to occur with 100% probability before it actually happens.

    如果視覺系統檢測到即將發生的碰撞,我們的安全團隊還引入了張力座椅構建的功能,這是以前從未做過的。因此,您可以想像,如果您的安全帶僅在撞擊時拉緊,那麼您幾乎沒有時間拉緊安全帶。如果你必須——汽車必須嘎吱作響才能觸發安全帶張緊器。但是因為我們有視覺,我們實際上可以在碰撞實際發生之前以 100% 的概率看到它即將發生。

  • And so we can tension the seat belts, and we can even adjust the airbag deployment because we can see, not just feel. This is a fundamental safety advantage that Teslas are now able to offer. And there's also an over-the-air update, so this is something that will be in place in all cars that have at least AP3 hardware.

    所以我們可以拉緊安全帶,我們甚至可以調整安全氣囊的展開,因為我們可以看到,而不僅僅是感覺。這是特斯拉現在能夠提供的基本安全優勢。而且還有一個無線更新,所以這將在所有至少具有 AP3 硬件的汽車中實施。

  • In conclusion, we exited Q2 with a strong production rate than ever before. Our team continues to focus on Cybertruck production readiness and some future platform design. We are expecting to be -- still expecting to be in production with the Cybertruck in the middle of next year. And we're very, very excited about that product. I think it might actually be our best product ever.

    總之,我們以比以往任何時候都高的生產率退出了第二季度。我們的團隊繼續專注於 Cybertruck 的生產準備和一些未來的平台設計。我們預計 - 仍然預計將在明年年中與 Cybertruck 一起生產。我們對該產品非常非常興奮。我認為它實際上可能是我們有史以來最好的產品。

  • Let's see. FSD Beta is on track to be released for all of North American customers before the end of this year. And hopefully, if we get regulatory approval, we'll also be releasing it hopefully in Europe and some other parts of the world.

    讓我們來看看。 FSD Beta 有望在今年年底前面向所有北美客戶發布。希望如果我們獲得監管部門的批准,我們也有望在歐洲和世界其他一些地區發布它。

  • We're hosting our AI Day in a few months. I think people will be amazed at what we're able to show off in AI Day. So basically, there's a tremendous amount to look forward to in the second half of this year. And I want to thank all of our employees and suppliers for their super hard work during these challenging times. Super appreciate it. Thank you.

    我們將在幾個月後舉辦我們的 AI 日。我認為人們會驚訝於我們能夠在 AI Day 上展示的東西。所以基本上,今年下半年有很多值得期待的事情。我要感謝我們所有的員工和供應商在這些充滿挑戰的時期所做的超級辛勤工作。超級欣賞。謝謝你。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you very much. And Zach has some opening remarks as well.

    非常感謝。 Zach 也有一些開場白。

  • Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

    Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Martin. I want to start by congratulating the Tesla team on an excellent execution during the second quarter. Although our production volume reduced sequentially due to COVID-related shutdowns in Shanghai, we made substantial progress in nearly every area of the business, and in particular, our global vehicle production rate as we exited the quarter.

    是的。謝謝,馬丁。首先,我要祝賀特斯拉團隊在第二季度的出色執行。儘管由於上海與 COVID 相關的停工,我們的產量環比下降,但我們幾乎在每個業務領域都取得了實質性進展,特別是在本季度結束時,我們的全球汽車生產率。

  • Our Fremont factory, supported by our Reno team, reached new production records. The Shanghai factory resumed full production, and our new factories in Austin and Berlin are progressing well through their initial ramps.

    在 Reno 團隊的支持下,我們的弗里蒙特工廠創造了新的生產記錄。上海工廠已全面恢復生產,我們在奧斯汀和柏林的新工廠正在順利完成初始階段的生產。

  • Additionally, our energy business achieved record gross profit with the highest solar volumes in many years. I want to personally thank the entire Tesla team, as I know many of you are listening. You've embodied a remarkable and relentless pursuit of excellence in support of our mission. I also want to thank our suppliers for their support during another complicated quarter.

    此外,我們的能源業務以多年來最高的太陽能量實現了創紀錄的毛利潤。我要親自感謝整個特斯拉團隊,因為我知道你們中的許多人都在聽。為了支持我們的使命,您體現了卓越而不懈的追求。我還要感謝我們的供應商在另一個複雜的季度中給予的支持。

  • On GAAP automotive gross margin, it declined sequentially to 27.9%. The temporary decline in Shanghai production volume meaningfully impacted margin, including idle capacity and factory restart costs and also had implications on the mix of regional deliveries.

    按美國通用會計準則計算,汽車毛利率環比下降至 27.9%。上海產量的暫時下降顯著影響了利潤率,包括閒置產能和工廠重啟成本,也對區域交付組合產生了影響。

  • Additionally, as discussed on previous calls, we are working through the ramp inefficiencies of our new factories, which are progressing well but have had an impact on margin as those factories come online. While we continue to see a benefit from higher pricing flowing through, which experienced some foreign exchange-related headwinds, our cost structure continues to experience cost increases from inflation, commodities and logistics.

    此外,正如之前的電話會議所討論的,我們正在努力解決新工廠效率低下的問題,這些工廠進展順利,但隨著這些工廠的上線對利潤率產生了影響。雖然我們繼續看到更高的定價帶來好處,經歷了一些與外匯相關的逆風,但我們的成本結構繼續經歷通貨膨脹、商品和物流的成本增加。

  • The energy business progressed well in Q2, aided by alternate solar supply coming online and progress on unit economics. Our storage business remains component-constrained on both Powerwall and Megapack, which we hope will alleviate to some extent in the second half of the year. We are greatly appreciative of the patience and flexibility shown by our customers while we work through these challenges.

    在備用太陽能供應上線和單位經濟進步的幫助下,能源業務在第二季度進展順利。我們的存儲業務在 Powerwall 和 Megapack 上仍然受到組件限制,我們希望這將在今年下半年有所緩解。我們非常感謝客戶在應對這些挑戰時表現出的耐心和靈活性。

  • Within operating expenses, Boston and Berlin-related start-up costs have wound down as these factories have moved into production and their costs are now reflected in automotive COGS. Additionally, we converted a majority of our Bitcoin holdings to fiat for a realized gain, offset by impairment charges on the remainder of our holdings, netting a $106 million cost to the P&L included within restructuring and other. We also incurred restructuring charges related to targeted staffing reductions.

    在運營費用中,與波士頓和柏林相關的啟動成本隨著這些工廠投入生產而逐漸減少,它們的成本現在反映在汽車 COGS 中。此外,我們將我們持有的大部分比特幣轉換為法定收益,以抵消我們持有的剩餘資產的減值費用,為重組和其他中包含的損益淨成本 1.06 億美元。我們還發生了與有針對性的裁員有關的重組費用。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes, actually, it should be mentioned that the reason we sold a bunch of our Bitcoin holdings was that we were uncertain as to when the COVID lockdowns in China would alleviate. So it was important for us to maximize our cash position, given the uncertainty of the COVID lockdowns in China.

    是的,實際上,應該提到的是,我們出售大量比特幣資產的原因是我們不確定中國的 COVID 封鎖何時會緩解。因此,鑑於中國 COVID 封鎖的不確定性,最大化我們的現金頭寸對我們來說很重要。

  • We are certainly open to increasing our Bitcoin holdings in future, so this should not be taken as some verdict on Bitcoin. It's just that we were concerned about overall liquidity for the company, given COVID shutdowns in China. And we have not sold any of our Dogecoin.

    我們當然願意在未來增加我們的比特幣持有量,所以這不應該被視為對比特幣的一些判斷。只是我們擔心公司的整體流動性,考慮到中國的 COVID 關閉。而且我們還沒有出售任何狗狗幣。

  • Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

    Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

  • We still have it.

    我們仍然擁有它。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • We still have our Dogecoin.

    我們還有我們的狗狗幣。

  • Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

    Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

  • Despite these challenges, we were still able to achieve one of our strongest operating margins of 14.6%. Our free cash flows were impacted by working capital related to the Shanghai factory shutdown. However, we expect this will show as a benefit in Q3 as our working capital-related cash flows restabilize.

    儘管存在這些挑戰,我們仍然能夠實現 14.6% 的最高營業利潤率之一。我們的自由現金流受到與上海工廠關閉相關的營運資金的影響。然而,隨著與營運資金相關的現金流重新穩定,我們預計這將在第三季度顯示為收益。

  • As we look ahead and as Elon mentioned, we are positioned for a record-breaking second half of the year. We're quite excited about this. A couple of things to keep in mind as we progress. Austin and Berlin ramp inefficiencies will continue to weigh on our margins for the balance of the year. However, the impact should reduce as we increase ramp.

    展望未來,正如埃隆所說,我們有望在今年下半年創紀錄。我們對此感到非常興奮。隨著我們的進步,有幾件事要記住。奧斯汀和柏林的效率低下將繼續影響我們今年餘下的利潤。但是,隨著我們增加坡度,影響應該會減少。

  • Second, as we've mentioned before, we expect to continue to see recognized global pricing to increase as our backlog flows through. However, macroeconomic-related cost increases will also continue to be part of our story.

    其次,正如我們之前提到的,隨著我們的積壓訂單流過,我們預計將繼續看到公認的全球定價增加。然而,與宏觀經濟相關的成本增加也將繼續成為我們故事的一部分。

  • And finally, despite losing more builds in Q3 than expected, we're still pushing to reach 50% growth this year. This target has become more difficult but it remains possible with strong execution. And as Elon mentioned, no more force majeure events for the balance of the year.

    最後,儘管在第三季度失去的構建量比預期的要多,但我們仍在努力實現今年 50% 的增長。這個目標變得更加困難,但通過強有力的執行仍然是可能的。正如埃隆所說,今年餘下時間不再發生不可抗力事件。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes, a lot of force majeure in the last several years, that's for sure.

    是的,過去幾年發生了很多不可抗力,這是肯定的。

  • Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

    Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you very much. And now let's go to the questions from investors. And the first question is, Chinese EV manufacturers seem to be doing a better job than their Western competitors, excluding Tesla, at innovating in software and design. How can Tesla make sure the company is staying ahead of those manufacturers, both within China and outside of China?

    非常感謝。現在讓我們來回答投資者的問題。第一個問題是,中國電動汽車製造商在軟件和設計創新方面似乎比他們的西方競爭對手(不包括特斯拉)做得更好。特斯拉如何確保公司在中國境內外領先於這些製造商?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Well, the -- right now, the best Chinese EV manufacturer is Tesla train. We're actually doing the best, thanks to our incredible team in China. But I have a lot of respect for the Chinese, our manufacturers and EV manufacturers in particular. I think they will be a force to be reckoned with worldwide. They're very -- they're smart and they're hardworking. And I think anyone who is not -- any company that's not as competitive as them will obviously suffer a share decline. So obviously, we have a lot of respect for the current companies in China and then their capabilities, yes.

    嗯,目前,中國最好的電動汽車製造商是特斯拉火車。多虧了我們在中國令人難以置信的團隊,我們實際上做得最好。但我非常尊重中國人,尤其是我們的製造商,尤其是電動汽車製造商。我認為他們將成為全世界不可忽視的力量。他們非常——他們很聰明,而且他們很努力。而且我認為任何沒有競爭力的公司 - 任何沒有他們那麼有競爭力的公司顯然都會遭受股價下跌。所以很明顯,我們非常尊重中國目前的公司以及他們的能力,是的。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you. The next question is, when will Tesla have a unified vector space for both static and moving object network? Will this be a V11 or later version? If the latter, can you explain what makes it a difficult problem in layman terms?

    謝謝你。下一個問題是,特斯拉什麼時候才能為靜態和移動對象網絡提供統一的向量空間?這會是 V11 或更高版本嗎?如果是後者,你能用外行的方式解釋是什麼使它成為一個難題嗎?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Okay. This answer will be understood by 0.01% of the audience, I think. I suppose people want to find out what a unified factory space would actually mean. It essentially would be if you can take -- if instead of netting together static and dynamic objects in C++, if they could be net together at the neural net level, then you don't need to reconcile them within C++ heuristics.

    好的。我想這個答案會被 0.01% 的觀眾理解。我想人們想知道統一的工廠空間究竟意味著什麼。本質上,如果您可以採取 - 如果不是在 C++ 中將靜態和動態對象連接在一起,如果它們可以在神經網絡級別連接在一起,那麼您不需要在 C++ 啟發式中協調它們。

  • That is an architecturally better way to -- that's the most desirable outcome. It's -- I think it's probably not necessary to achieve full self-driving, but it would be a slight improvement in the efficiency of the self-driving. And it's certainly something we want to get to. Yes. The sort of nirvana situation is you have surround video/auto labeling of all static and dynamic objects. And you have then surround video inference with spatial memory as well.

    這是一種架構上更好的方式——這是最理想的結果。這是——我認為實現全自動駕駛可能沒有必要,但它會稍微提高自動駕駛的效率。這當然是我們想要達到的目標。是的。這種必殺技的情況是您擁有所有靜態和動態對象的環繞視頻/自動標籤。然後,您還可以使用空間內存進行環繞視頻推理。

  • Then that's -- I mean, I think we're almost certainly there before the end of the year. Yes, I'm not sure how many you would understand that. But I should say also, we are also confident of improving the frame rate and as we some of the legacy neural nets, we think we might be able to get to the frame rate of what the -- only cameras is maybe up to 36 fps, which is actually a lot of frames, considering it cameras. It's certainly comfortably above 24 frames, which is basically the movie -- frame rate of movies.

    那就是 - 我的意思是,我認為我們幾乎可以肯定在今年年底之前到達那裡。是的,我不確定有多少人會理解這一點。但我也應該說,我們也有信心提高幀速率,並且作為我們一些傳統的神經網絡,我們認為我們可能能夠達到只有相機可能高達 36 fps 的幀速率,這實際上是很多幀,考慮到它是相機。它肯定在 24 幀以上,這基本上是電影的幀率——電影的幀率。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you. The next question is Elon recently tweeted about lowering prices once inflation cools down. Can you elaborate on what do you mean by cooling down and how aggressively the company will lower prices? More broadly, how do you think about the auto pricing long term?

    謝謝你。下一個問題是埃隆最近在推特上發布了關於一旦通脹降溫就會降低價格的消息。您能否詳細說明您所說的“降溫”是什麼意思,以及公司降價的力度有多大?更廣泛地說,您如何看待長期的汽車定價?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So since we have -- there's a quite a long wait when somebody orders in a car, in some cases, 6 months; in some cases, it could be up to a year. We have to anticipate what the probable inflation rate is over that period of time. So that's what we're trying to do. When we -- when or if we see indications that the inflation rate is declining, then we would not need to increase our car prices. It's possible that there could be a slight decrease in car prices, but this is fundamentally dependent on macroeconomic inflation. It's not something we control.

    是的。因此,既然我們有——當有人在汽車上訂購時,有相當長的等待時間,在某些情況下,需要 6 個月;在某些情況下,可能長達一年。我們必須預測在那段時間內可能出現的通貨膨脹率。這就是我們正在嘗試做的事情。當我們 - 當或如果我們看到通貨膨脹率正在下降的跡象,那麼我們就不需要提高我們的汽車價格。汽車價格可能會略有下降,但這從根本上取決於宏觀經濟通脹。這不是我們能控制的。

  • If I were to guess, and I would take this with a grain of salt, I think inflation will decline towards the end of this year. We're certainly seeing prices of commodities trending lower. Yes. But take it with a grain of salt. This is -- making economic prognostication is fraught with error. I don't know if you guys want to -- do you want to say anything about...

    如果我猜的話,我會持保留態度,我認為通脹將在今年年底前下降。我們當然看到大宗商品價格走低。是的。但要帶著一粒鹽。這是——做出經濟預測充滿了錯誤。我不知道你們是否願意——你們想說什麼...

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes. We're certainly seeing, I mean, it's kind of a whole spectrum. On the battery metal side, for example, the price of lithium has really shot up. We used to be $11 a kilogram to more than $80 a kilogram. But it's -- not every situation is that bad so it's kind of a spectrum.

    是的。我們當然看到了,我的意思是,這是一個完整的範圍。例如,在電池金屬方面,鋰的價格確實飆升。我們曾經是每公斤 11 美元到每公斤超過 80 美元。但它 - 並非所有情況都那麼糟糕,所以它是一個範圍。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Carbon steel, aluminum, (inaudible) carbon steel and aluminum has started trending down. We will see the benefits of it only probably later part of this year or early next year.

    碳鋼、鋁、(聽不清)碳鋼和鋁已經開始呈下降趨勢。我們可能只會在今年晚些時候或明年初看到它的好處。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes. But I think that's just like for most commodities, we're seeing a downward trend towards the end of this year or next year. Some commodities, the pricing of lithium is insane. I would like to, once again, urge entrepreneurs to enter the lithium refining business. The mining is relatively easy. The refining is much harder.

    是的。但我認為這就像大多數商品一樣,我們看到今年年底或明年年底呈下降趨勢。一些商品,鋰的定價是瘋狂的。我想再次敦促企業家進入鋰精煉業務。挖礦相對容易。精煉要困難得多。

  • So lithium is actually a very common -- sort of very -- like lithium pretty much everywhere. But you have to refine the lithium into battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, which has to be extremely high purity. So it is basically like minting money right now. There's like software margins in lithium processing right now. So I would really like to encourage, once again, entrepreneurs to enter the lithium refining business. You can't lose. It's a license to print money.

    所以鋰實際上是一種非常常見的——有點像——幾乎無處不在的鋰。但是你必須將鋰提煉成電池級的碳酸鋰和氫氧化鋰,它們必須具有極高的純度。所以它基本上就像現在鑄幣一樣。現在鋰處理領域有軟件利潤。因此,我真的很想再次鼓勵企業家進入鋰精煉業務。你不能輸。這是印鈔的許可證。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you. The next question is you made the right economic call before most on inflation when you diversified into Bitcoin. It has since shown it's not much of a hedge in the real-world test the last few months. How do you think about it as an asset over long term? And what do you need to see to change your view?

    謝謝你。下一個問題是,當你多元化投資比特幣時,你在大多數通脹方面做出了正確的經濟呼籲。從那以後,它表明它在過去幾個月的實際測試中並沒有多大的對沖作用。您如何看待它作為長期資產?你需要看到什麼來改變你的觀點?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Well, Tesla is -- Tesla's goal is to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy. We're not really -- cryptocurrency is a sideshow to the sideshow. We're not a -- cryptocurrency is not something we think about a lot. We think a lot about scaling production and accelerating the advent of sustainable energy, which the record heat waves around Earth, so to emphasize the urgency of that transition.

    好吧,特斯拉是——特斯拉的目標是加速可持續能源的出現。我們不是真的 - 加密貨幣是雜耍的雜耍。我們不是——加密貨幣不是我們經常考慮的東西。我們想了很多關於擴大生產和加速可持續能源的出現,這是地球周圍創紀錄的熱浪,因此要強調這種轉變的緊迫性。

  • So that is what we're trying to do is make electric vehicles and solar and stationary storage battery packs. But the 3 pillars of a sustainable energy future, which is like solar and wind for energy generation, stationary battery packs for storage of the solar energy because of its intermittency and then electric vehicles, the third pillar. And if those 3 things are solved, we have a sustainable future for civilization.

    所以這就是我們正在嘗試做的就是製造電動汽車、太陽能和固定式蓄電池組。但可持續能源未來的三大支柱,如用於發電的太陽能和風能,用於儲存太陽能的固定電池組(由於其間歇性),然後是電動汽車,第三支柱。如果這三件事得到解決,我們就有了一個可持續的文明未來。

  • And the fundamental good of Tesla and the reason we're doing this, so certainly, my primary motivation here is to have the day of sustainable energy comes sooner. That's our goal. We're neither here nor there on cryptocurrency.

    特斯拉的根本利益和我們這樣做的原因,當然,我在這裡的主要動機是讓可持續能源的日子早日到來。這就是我們的目標。我們在加密貨幣上既不在這裡也不在那裡。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you. The next question on 4680. Elon noted that 4680 plus structural pack is not yet optimized. Can you please share the general path of 4680 in structural packs in terms of cost efficiencies when compared to the traditional 2170 pack? Will cost improvements be mostly due to scale or do we need to solve some technical issues?

    謝謝你。下一個關於 4680 的問題。Elon 指出,4680 plus 結構包尚未優化。與傳統的 2170 包相比,您能否分享 4680 在結構包中的一般路徑?成本提高主要是由於規模還是我們需要解決一些技術問題?

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes, do you want to do the architecture?

    是的,你想做架構嗎?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So structural pack where we get dual use of the battery cells as structure and as energy storage in the same way that an aircraft gets dual use of the wing as a fuel tank and as a wing is, I think, unequivocally, from a physics standpoint, the superior architecture. It's the A architecture.

    是的。因此,我們將電池作為結構和能量存儲的雙重用途的結構包,就像飛機將機翼作為燃料箱和機翼雙重用途一樣,我認為,從物理學的角度來看,這是毫不含糊的,優越的架構。這是A架構。

  • Now because it is new, we'll start off getting, I don't know, aspirationally a C within an A architecture. But the potential is there for to get radically better and then unequivocally better than a battery pack, which is carried like a sack of potatoes.

    現在因為它是新的,我們將開始,我不知道,渴望在 A 架構中的 C。但是有潛力從根本上變得更好,然後明確地比電池組更好,電池組就像一袋土豆一樣攜帶。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes. And we've gained the perspective through putting our first structural pack in production that it is actually the A architecture. Like before we did that, it was a hypothesis that was backed with -- I got a lot of modeling and first principles analysis. And now we've actually built and are more confident in that assertion.

    是的。通過將我們的第一個結構包投入生產,我們已經獲得了它實際上是 A 架構的觀點。就像在我們這樣做之前一樣,這是一個得到支持的假設——我得到了很多建模和第一性原理分析。現在我們實際上已經建立並且對這個斷言更有信心。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So exactly. So the structural pack, even the C and the A architecture is beating the nonstructural pack. And so over time, it will, with further refinement, be substantially superior to a car that is carrying a battery pack as though it is cargo. And this is like -- it's very much very analogous to the early days of aviation where fuel tanks were initially carried like cargo until they realized actually, you should get dual use of a fuel tank as a wing and as fuel tank. And that makes the planes lighter and better. And the same is true of electric vehicles.

    是的。正是如此。因此,結構包,甚至 C 和 A 架構都在擊敗非結構包。因此,隨著時間的推移,隨著時間的推移,它將大大優於攜帶電池組的汽車,就好像它是貨物一樣。這就像 - 它非常類似於航空的早期,油箱最初像貨物一樣被運輸,直到他們真正意識到,你應該將油箱用作機翼和油箱。這使得飛機更輕、更好。電動汽車也是如此。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • And on cost improvements, are they due to scale or about solving technical issues?

    在成本改進方面,它們是由於規模還是為了解決技術問題?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Yes. I mean really, the 2 things that improve costs are economies of scale and tech and core technology.

    是的。是的。我的意思是,提高成本的兩件事是規模經濟以及技術和核心技術。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes. I think technical issue is not the right.

    是的。我認為技術問題是不對的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Technical issues like...

    技術問題如...

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Getting to the optimal design, right? Like you always start with some access. Some people might call it that, but that's not really what you think it is initially. It's that you don't know how early you can get it until you've done it a couple of times.

    達到最佳設計,對嗎?就像你總是從一些訪問開始。有些人可能會這樣稱呼它,但這並不是你最初認為的那樣。就是你不知道你能多早得到它,直到你完成了幾次。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I mean there's some platonic ideal of the perfect product where the atoms -- you have exactly the right atoms and they're in exactly the right position, and you asymptotically approach this platonic ideal. But it takes a lot of effort over time to figure out actually what is the platonic ideal and then actually gradually approach that.

    是的。我的意思是有一些完美產品的柏拉圖式理想,其中原子——你有完全正確的原子,它們處於完全正確的位置,你漸近地接近這個柏拉圖式的理想。但是隨著時間的推移,要弄清楚什麼是柏拉圖式的理想,然後逐漸接近它,需要付出很多努力。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes. I mean, you might need to create a new alloy. Then you need to figure out how to cast it, then you need to ramp the casting machine with the new alloy.

    是的。我的意思是,你可能需要製造一種新合金。然後你需要弄清楚如何鑄造它,然後你需要用新合金傾斜鑄造機。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • We did.

    我們做到了。

  • Lars Moravy - VP of Vehicle Engineering

    Lars Moravy - VP of Vehicle Engineering

  • We've done it for -- We've done it castings. Yes. But those take time.

    我們已經完成了 - 我們已經完成了鑄件。是的。但那些需要時間。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • On improvement is something we're used to here, and it's something like we've done with their vehicles and our design since the beginning. I mean, even we're talking a couple of weeks ago, like the first version of the front casting that we made that went into the early vehicles is like...

    改進是我們在這裡習慣的事情,就像我們從一開始就對他們的車輛和我們的設計所做的那樣。我的意思是,即使我們在幾週前談論,就像我們製作的用於早期車輛的前鑄件的第一個版本就像......

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • I mean, Model S stage.

    我的意思是,Model S階段。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • No, I'm talking about like first Model Ys. Since we've ordered more dies because bringing more dies for more production, we've saved like 4 or 5 kilos of mass with just die iteration. And that's something we do at Tesla like quite regularly and we'll continue to do. So we're not happy with a C, like maybe we're at a C-plus now because I think we got to keep going to B-minus.

    不,我說的是第一個 Model Y。由於我們訂購了更多的模具,因為我們為更多的生產帶來了更多的模具,因此我們僅通過模具迭代就節省了大約 4 或 5 公斤的質量。這是我們在特斯拉經常做的事情,我們將繼續這樣做。所以我們對 C 不滿意,可能我們現在處於 C+,因為我認為我們必須繼續保持 B-。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • On the rear casting. But this will transfer for improvement with the casting. So the casting is already way better than the rare body casting is already way better than the -- on the way is done in the past where you've got 120 different parts that are welded together or bonded together with different alloys and then you have to put sealant in between all the various parts for water ingress and noise.

    在後鑄件上。但這將隨著鑄件的改進而轉移。因此,鑄件已經比稀有的車身鑄件好得多——在過去的路上,你有 120 個不同的零件被焊接在一起或用不同的合金粘合在一起,然後你就有了在所有不同的部件之間塗上密封劑,以防止進水和噪音。

  • So we're already way better than that with current casting, but there's still a lot of opportunities to reduce the master casting and also extend the casting to include more parts as well as adapt the rest of the vehicle for the fact that there's a cast A.

    所以我們已經比目前的鑄件好得多,但仍有很多機會減少主鑄件並擴展鑄件以包括更多零件,並調整車輛的其餘部分以適應鑄件的事實一個。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes, I was going to say the same thing, right? Like we're not just evaluating the pack and insulation either. It's the pack plus the body, the integration, do we have mass in the right places, we have the cost in the right places and only just the right amount. And I think we've gone through 1 iteration. We're going to do another 1 with Cybertruck. I mean, we're taking the learnings and doing. The next version hopefully is a B-plus in A architecture. That's certainly a target.

    是的,我也想說同樣的話,對吧?就像我們不只是評估包裝和絕緣材料一樣。這是包裝加上身體,整合,我們在正確的地方有質量嗎,我們在正確的地方有成本,而且只有恰到好處的數量。我認為我們已經經歷了 1 次迭代。我們將用 Cybertruck 再做 1 個。我的意思是,我們正在學習和實踐。希望下一個版本是 A 架構中的 B+。這當然是一個目標。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you. The next question is, how do you feel the progress of FSD is going? And does Andrej Karpathy is leaving, have any significant impact on time lines or potential progress?

    謝謝你。接下來的問題是,你覺得FSD的進展如何? Andrej Karpathy 的離開是否會對時間線或潛在進展產生重大影響?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Well, since Andrej was writing all the code by himself, naturally, things have come to a grinding halt. And so irony. So Andrej was also in which we have transparent respect for Andrej. He's decided to -- I think he wants to contribute more to, I think, core AI at an academic level and get back to coding individually.

    好吧,由於 Andrej 自己編寫了所有代碼,所以自然而然地,事情就戛然而止了。太諷刺了。所以安德烈也在其中,我們對安德烈有明顯的尊重。他決定——我認為他想在學術層面為核心 AI 做出更多貢獻,並重新開始單獨編碼。

  • But we've got a team of about 120 people in our software AI group that are extremely talented. And I think we will have -- I'm highly confident we will solve full self-driving and it still seems to be this year. I know people are like says that. But it does seem to be epic. It does seem as though we are converging on full self-driving this year.

    但是我們的軟件 AI 團隊中有一個大約 120 人的團隊,他們非常有才華。而且我認為我們會 - 我非常有信心我們將解決全自動駕駛問題,而且似乎仍然是今年。我知道人們是這樣說的。但這似乎是史詩般的。看來我們今年正在完全自動駕駛。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you. The next question is, how is the 4680 ramp going? And is Giga Texas producing cells yet?

    謝謝你。下一個問題是,4680 坡道進展如何? Giga Texas 還在生產細胞嗎?

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes. So we are making progress on 4680. But right now, as Elon mentioned, we are leveraging supplier cells, which we have in sufficient quantity to ramp Texas and Berlin. We expect to ramp total 4680 production to exceed 1,000 per week by the end of the year, hopefully before -- well before.

    是的。所以我們在 4680 上取得了進展。但現在,正如 Elon 所提到的,我們正在利用供應商單元,我們擁有足夠數量的供應商單元來加速德克薩斯和柏林。我們預計到今年年底,4680 輛的總產量將超過每週 1,000 輛,希望在此之前 - 遠在之前。

  • In Q2, at Kato we fully automated (inaudible) for the dry anode-electrode tool there, unlocking major increases in production and improvements in yields. Since March because of that, Kato output has grown about 35% month-over-month each month since, and yields throughout the factory are already at targets in most areas and trending in that direction and a few others.

    在第二季度,我們在 Kato 對乾陽極電極工具進行了完全自動化(聽不清),從而實現了產量的大幅增長和產量的提高。正因為如此,自 3 月以來,加藤產量每月環比增長約 35%,整個工廠的產量已經達到大多數地區的目標,並朝著這個方向和其他一些方向發展。

  • We did feed learnings from Fremont cell and pack lines to Texas and Berlin there, a carbon copy. Cell design was revved to unlock higher performance and manufacturing simplicity. Manufacturing lines were further integrated and we in-sourced additional content. For these reasons, there are some new ramp challenges to overcome in Texas and Berlin.

    我們確實將弗里蒙特細胞和包裝生產線的經驗提供給德克薩斯州和柏林,複製一份。電池設計得到了改進,以釋放更高的性能和製造簡單性。生產線進一步整合,我們內購了額外的內容。由於這些原因,德州和柏林需要克服一些新的坡道挑戰。

  • Specific to Texas last quarter, cell equipment was fully installed and commissioned and we produced our first commissioning car sets of cells through the end of the line. Our target for Texas is to begin production this quarter and aim for Texas to be capable of exceeding Kato weekly output before the end of this year.

    具體到上個季度的德克薩斯州,電池設備已完全安裝和調試,我們生產了第一批調試汽車電池組,直至生產線末端。我們對德克薩斯州的目標是在本季度開始生產,目標是在今年年底之前讓德克薩斯州能夠超過加藤的每週產量。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you very much. The next question is on 4680 as well, but I think Andrew has covered everything that was in the next question.

    非常感謝。下一個問題也在 4680 上,但我認為 Andrew 已經涵蓋了下一個問題中的所有內容。

  • So the following question is with regards to the ramp of production in Austin and Berlin. How is the situation with regards to supply of semiconductors, battery cells and other components? How about cost inflation impacting profitability of these other plants?

    所以下面的問題是關於奧斯汀和柏林的產量增長。半導體、電池等零部件供應情況如何?成本膨脹如何影響這些其他工廠的盈利能力?

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • I can take that. So Tesla procures about 1,600 unique pieces of silicon from 43 semiconductor companies. So with a portfolio of that size, there are always challenges. Things are more stable on the latest generation chips. We still see some tightness in the older generation semiconductors, especially in the analog and mixed signal space. But we have line of sight to solve for the volumes being contemplated for both Austin and Berlin.

    我可以接受。因此,特斯拉從 43 家半導體公司採購了大約 1,600 塊獨特的矽片。因此,對於這種規模的投資組合,總是存在挑戰。最新一代芯片上的情況更加穩定。我們仍然看到老一代半導體存在一些緊張,特別是在模擬和混合信號領域。但是我們有視線可以解決奧斯汀和柏林正在考慮的體積。

  • And on the cell front, like Elon mentioned, we have a comfortable margin, thanks to record output from our partners and have line of sight that matches the planned output from both factories. We've grown cell production significantly on a 12-month rolling basis and have long-term contracts with all our partners for key battery metals. So we don't see any major problems for the components, of course, barring unforeseen COVID-related shutdowns.

    在電池方面,就像 Elon 提到的那樣,由於我們合作夥伴的創紀錄產量以及與兩家工廠的計劃產量相匹配的視線,我們有一個可觀的利潤。我們在 12 個月的滾動基礎上顯著增加了電池產量,並與我們所有的合作夥伴就關鍵電池金屬簽訂了長期合同。因此,當然,除非與 COVID 相關的意外停機,我們沒有看到這些組件存在任何重大問題。

  • Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

    Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

  • Just to add on the profitability part of the question. Q2 was our largest increase yet over the last handful of quarters on inflation and commodity-related increases to our cars. It's fairly evenly spread across the factories, given common suppliers or common issues that impact the broad supply chain.

    只是為了增加問題的盈利能力部分。在過去幾個季度中,由於通貨膨脹和與商品相關的汽車增長,第二季度是我們迄今為止最大的增長。考慮到常見的供應商或影響廣泛供應鏈的常見問題,它在工廠中的分佈相當均勻。

  • So I think I had mentioned before that we have been seeing increases over the course of last year. It ticked up in Q1 and then it ticked up again at the rate of increase was more in Q2. So as we look through to the end of the year, what we're seeing is we don't think the inflation-related increases in Q3 will be as big as Q2. But as Elon has mentioned, there is uncertainty on pricing here.

    所以我想我之前提到過,我們在去年的過程中看到了增長。它在第一季度上升,然後再次上升,第二季度的增長率更高。因此,當我們展望今年年底時,我們看到的是,我們認為第三季度與通脹相關的增長不會像第二季度那麼大。但正如埃隆所說,這裡的定價存在不確定性。

  • And we don't have full exposure, as [Karen] had just mentioned, on every component of cost because we do have some contracts in place. But there are some spot buys as well and some contracts being renegotiated. So we're managing it with pricing and in partnership with our suppliers but it does continue to be something that is impacting our financials.

    正如 [Karen] 剛剛提到的,我們沒有全面了解成本的每個組成部分,因為我們確實有一些合同。但也有一些現貨購買,一些合同正在重新談判。因此,我們正在通過定價並與我們的供應商合作來管理它,但它確實會繼續影響我們的財務狀況。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you very much. And the last question is, when will the Cybertruck be officially available?

    非常感謝。最後一個問題是,Cybertruck 什麼時候正式上市?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • We're hoping to start delivering them in the middle of next year.

    我們希望在明年年中開始交付它們。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Great. Thank you very much. And now let's go to analyst questions. The first question comes from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research. Pierre, feel free to unmute yourself.

    偉大的。非常感謝。現在讓我們來回答分析師的問題。第一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。皮埃爾,請隨意取消靜音。

  • Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

    Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

  • I'd like to ask like a question on 4680 and the structural battery pack. And I'd love to understand where you stand on the technology and efficiency and energy density road map that you described at the Battery Day. So what I'm trying to understand is where do you stand on the architecture of the battery cell itself? How much silicon do you have in it? How much energy improvement have you achieved already so far?

    我想問一個關於 4680 和結構電池組的問題。我很想了解您在電池日描述的技術、效率和能量密度路線圖上的立場。所以我想了解的是,你對電池本身的架構有何立場?你裡面有多少矽?到目前為止,您已經實現了多少能源改進?

  • And the reason why I'm asking that is because you have like very smart guys on Twitter who shared experience about trying to fully empty a Model Y from Texas from Austin and noticing behaviors and like recharging behavior that suggested that maybe these cars had like very, very high mileage, very high range, and were like artificially limited in range in software. So I'm just kind of trying to understand how much of an edge you're building at the moment with the 4680 and the battery back on range.

    我問這個問題的原因是因為你在推特上喜歡非常聰明的人,他們分享了試圖從奧斯汀把德克薩斯州的 Model Y 完全清空的經驗,並註意到行為和充電行為,這表明這些汽車可能非常喜歡,非常高的里程,非常高的範圍,並且在軟件中被人為地限制了範圍。因此,我只是想了解您目前在使用 4680 和電池恢復正常範圍內建立了多少優勢。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes. Let me just try to provide like a super straightforward answer. Like as Elon mentioned before, our priority was really on simplicity and scale during the initial 4680 and structural battery ramp. So we weren't like putting all the bells and whistles in from day 1 because if so, we would be sort of suffering under a string of serious miracles that we would need to achieve to get going.

    是的。讓我試著提供一個超級簡單的答案。正如 Elon 之前提到的,我們的首要任務是在最初的 4680 和結構電池斜坡期間的簡單性和規模。所以我們不喜歡從第一天開始就投入所有的花里胡哨,因為如果這樣,我們就會在一系列嚴重的奇蹟下受苦,我們需要實現這些奇蹟才能繼續前進。

  • But as we attain the manufacturing goals that we've stated at the ramp that we need to hit next year, we are certainly planning to layer in new material technologies and higher-range structural packs, like we're not like holding back goodies for some rainy day or something like that.

    但是,隨著我們實現了我們在明年需要達到的斜坡上提出的製造目標,我們當然計劃在新材料技術和更高範圍的結構包中分層,就像我們不喜歡為某個下雨天或類似的事情。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Maybe another way of putting it is that the -- our focus right now is on the dozens of little issues that inhibit the production ramp of the 4680. Some of the more challenging ones have been feeding the anode-cathode material because we're using this revolutionary dry electrode process. But when something is revolutionary, it's a lot of unknowns that have to be resolved.

    是的。也許另一種說法是——我們現在的重點是阻礙 4680 產量增長的幾十個小問題。一些更具挑戰性的問題一直在供應陽極-陰極材料,因為我們正在使用這種革命性的干電極工藝。但是,當某些事情具有革命性時,必須解決許多未知數。

  • So we're confident of resolving those unknowns but it's very, very difficult. It's -- yes, we're making rapid progress on that point. So the first order of business is really get the basics right, get to high volume and high reliability and then very rapidly iterate within that to enhance the energy density and reduce the cost of the cell.

    所以我們有信心解決這些未知數,但這非常非常困難。這是——是的,我們在這一點上取得了快速進展。因此,首要任務是真正做好基礎,實現大容量和高可靠性,然後在其中快速迭代以提高能量密度並降低電池成本。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Totally agree, yes.

    完全同意,是的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • I'd say we are highly confident of a good outcome. It's the exact counterpoint of that is perhaps is of some debate but the outcome is not.

    我想說我們對一個好的結果充滿信心。這可能是一些爭論的確切對立點,但結果不是。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes. Specific to the dry process, we made a major advance this past quarter in Kato that the team is really excited about, and congrats to the team for achieving that.

    是的。具體到干燥過程,我們在上個季度在加藤取得了重大進展,團隊對此感到非常興奮,並祝賀團隊實現了這一目標。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • But I should also emphasize that it is not as though Tesla intends to displace our suppliers of battery cells. The Tesla battery cell production is in addition to what our suppliers can do. And we want our suppliers to grow their battery output as fast as they possibly can, and that goes for the entire supply chain.

    但我還應該強調,特斯拉似乎並不打算取代我們的電池供應商。特斯拉電池生產是我們供應商可以做的補充。我們希望我們的供應商盡可能快地增加電池產量,這適用於整個供應鏈。

  • The fundamental rate limiter for both transitioning to sustainable energy is how fast can you grow with the amount of battery output per year? This is the fundamental rate limiter for transition to sustainability because you need the batteries for 2 of the pillars of sustainability, the stationary storage and for vehicles. So yes.

    過渡到可持續能源的基本速率限制因素是您每年的電池輸出量能以多快的速度增長?這是向可持續性過渡的基本速率限制器,因為您需要電池用於可持續性的兩個支柱,即固定存儲和車輛。所以是的。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes, I just want to stress that a lot of these higher energy density technologies are not necessarily scalable. I mean, most of them are not scalable from what I've seen. And so like focusing on them is a distraction from the mission, like it really is how do we scale as fast as possible?

    是的,我只是想強調,很多這些更高能量密度的技術不一定是可擴展的。我的意思是,從我所看到的情況來看,它們中的大多數都不可擴展。所以就像專注於他們會分散任務的注意力,就像我們如何盡可能快地擴展一樣?

  • And we're taking these risks that we've discussed at Battery Day. And our plan is as we derisk them and they are successful, we want to bring them back to our partners so that they can go faster, too, because that's all on the mission, right, like how do we accelerate.

    我們正在承擔我們在電池日討論過的這些風險。我們的計劃是,當我們取消他們並且他們成功時,我們希望將他們帶回我們的合作夥伴,這樣他們也可以更快地前進,因為這完全是我們的使命,對,就像我們如何加速一樣。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • People often ask me, if you often ask me, is some breakthrough needed in battery technology for the world to transition to sustainability? The answer is no. Even if there was 0 technology breakthroughs, so it literally 0 from where the technology is right now, we could fully transition Earth to sustainable energy. The issue is very much the rate at which the entire supply chain from mining to refining to cell production. How fast can that grow? It's growing fast with the faster it grows, the faster we transition to a sustainable energy economy.

    人們經常問我,如果你經常問我,電池技術是否需要一些突破才能讓世界過渡到可持續發展?答案是不。即使有 0 個技術突破,所以從現在的技術水平來看,它實際上是 0,我們可以將地球完全轉變為可持續能源。問題很大程度上在於從採礦到精煉再到電池生產的整個供應鏈的速度。那能增長多快?它正在快速增長,它增長得越快,我們向可持續能源經濟過渡的速度就越快。

  • Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

    Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

  • This is actually a great -- exactly where my follow-up is. So Elon, you always mention this 50% per annum sustainable growth target that you guys have. And so my question here is when we see like the difficulty regarding the commodities, raw materials, swinging prices, I'm kind of wondering, as you are planning for this 50% per annum growth, if we stand today over the next 5 to 10 years, how much of that do you feel you've secured through your work at entering into long-term contracts and things like that? And you were calling for entrepreneurs to go into the lithium business.

    這實際上很棒——正是我的後續行動所在。所以埃隆,你總是提到你們擁有的每年 50% 的可持續增長目標。所以我的問題是,當我們看到大宗商品、原材料、價格波動方面的困難時,我有點想知道,因為你正計劃實現每年 50% 的增長,如果我們今天站在接下來的 5 到10 年,你覺得你在簽訂長期合同之類的工作中獲得了多少?你呼籲企業家進入鋰業務。

  • So does that mean you don't have enough lithium secured to grow 50% per annum over multiple years? And what's -- how much of that is secured today? And how fast can you improve that basically?

    那麼這是否意味著您沒有足夠的鋰來保證在多年內以每年 50% 的速度增長?什麼是 - 今天有多少是安全的?基本上你能以多快的速度改進它?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Well, I think it's kind of very difficult to predict anything 10 years from now. I hope civilization is still around, frankly. I don't count that as a win.

    嗯,我認為很難預測 10 年後的任何事情。坦率地說,我希望文明仍然存在。我不認為這是一場胜利。

  • Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

    Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

  • Not that fun.

    沒那麼好玩。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes, exactly. Hopefully, we haven't had World War III by then. So the -- we do see constraints in refining of the materials necessary for lithium ion batteries. I do want to emphasize this as -- it is not due to a scarcity of the raw material. In the case of lithium, lithium is one of the most common elements on Earth. It's pretty much everywhere.

    對,就是這樣。希望那時我們還沒有發生第三次世界大戰。所以 - 我們確實看到了鋰離子電池所需材料的精煉限制。我確實想強調這一點——這不是由於原材料的稀缺。就鋰而言,鋰是地球上最常見的元素之一。它幾乎無處不在。

  • But refining of the lithium into ultra-high purity battery-grade lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate is quite difficult and requires a massive amount of machinery and it's a hard thing to scale. As it was also difficult to create the anode and cathode.

    但是將鋰提煉成超高純度的電池級氫氧化鋰、碳酸鋰是相當困難的,需要大量的機器,而且很難規模化。因為創建陽極和陰極也很困難。

  • I think -- my guess is maybe 2/3 of batteries will be iron phosphate or maybe iron phosphate with some manganese. And there's plenty of -- there's a ridiculous amount of iron. In fact, Earth is -- a little bit of trivia. says, what is Earth made of more than anything else? Iron. Iron is the #1 ingredient of Earth by mass. Number 2 is oxygen, which is wild.

    我想——我的猜測可能是 2/3 的電池是磷酸鐵,或者可能是磷酸鐵和一些錳。而且有很多——鐵的數量非常可笑。事實上,地球是——有點瑣碎。說,地球是由什麼構成的?鐵。按質量計,鐵是地球的第一大成分。 2 號是氧氣,它是野生的。

  • Yes. Basically rust. Actually, we're stuck together. We're a rust ball. That's roughly -- that's almost 2/3 of Earth, I think, is rust. We are like a rusty ball bearing with a little bit of other stuff. So -- but plenty of lithium. So anyway, there's not like a shortage of materials.

    是的。基本生鏽。實際上,我們是粘在一起的。我們是一個生鏽的球。這大概是——我認為幾乎有 2/3 的地球是生鏽的。我們就像一個生鏽的滾珠軸承,還有一點點其他的東西。所以 - 但大量的鋰。所以無論如何,材料並不短缺。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • But the other thing on the LFP thing is that it isn't just that there's more access to material that way. The actual refining process is less capital intensive to make a good LFP cathode. And so there's -- it's not just scalable on the resource side, it's scalable on the refining side.

    但關於 LFP 的另一件事是,它不僅可以通過這種方式獲得更多的材料。製造優質 LFP 陰極的實際精煉過程的資本密集度較低。因此,它不僅在資源方面具有可擴展性,而且在精煉方面也具有可擴展性。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Absolutely. To clear, there's no fundamental barrier here. It's simply a rate question. Like at what rate can you scale production? And I think we're seeing a very rapid increase in battery production and in the whole supply chain. If you were to say today, what are concerns appears down the road? I would say one of the concerns is the machinery to refine the -- the critical ingredients of lithium ion cells. So the lithium itself and then the cathode, which I said like I said, will be mostly iron phosphate, partially some manganese.

    絕對地。需要明確的是,這裡沒有根本的障礙。這只是一個費率問題。比如你可以以什麼速度擴大生產規模?我認為我們看到電池產量和整個供應鏈都在快速增長。如果你今天說,未來會出現什麼問題?我想說的一個問題是提煉鋰離子電池關鍵成分的機器。所以鋰本身,然後是我所說的陰極,主要是磷酸鐵,部分是錳。

  • I think almost all stationary storage will be iron phosphate and then you really just need nickel chemistry for long-range vehicles and like aircraft and that kind of thing.

    我認為幾乎所有固定式存儲都將是磷酸鐵,然後你真的只需要鎳化學用於遠程車輛和飛機之類的東西。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes. The other thing I would say is -- we are working with our suppliers to ramp their capability as quickly as possible. And it's not like we have a problem in the next year or 2 to -- specifically to your question. But when we look 10 years out, yes, we need to do more to accelerate the growth. And that is why we are making our own investments, like we are building a facility here in Texas. The steel is going up, you can see it in the flyovers.

    是的。我要說的另一件事是——我們正在與我們的供應商合作,以盡快提高他們的能力。這不像我們在未來一年或兩年內遇到問題 - 特別是您的問題。但是當我們展望 10 年後,是的,我們需要做更多的事情來加速增長。這就是我們進行自己投資的原因,就像我們在德克薩斯州建立一個設施一樣。鋼鐵在漲,你可以在天橋上看到它。

  • We're working on a lithium refining activity as well ourselves because the best way to learn how to accelerate something is to do it yourself. So these are the things we're doing to move it all forward.

    我們自己也在從事鋰精煉活動,因為學習如何加速某件事的最好方法就是自己動手。所以這些是我們正在做的事情來推動這一切。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes. If our suppliers don't solve these problems, then we will.

    是的。如果我們的供應商不解決這些問題,那麼我們會。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you. The next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank.

    謝謝你。下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

  • Emmanuel Rosner - Director & Research Analyst

    Emmanuel Rosner - Director & Research Analyst

  • Yes. I have a question on your vehicle demand and then a quick follow-up on supply. First, on the demand side. Are you seeing any sort of pressure in the order book or the pace of new order or any sort of like slowdown as a result of the pressures that the consumer is experiencing? Are you worried about it in light of your view of the risks to the economy that I think you expressed, Elon?

    是的。我對您的車輛需求有疑問,然後快速跟進供應情況。首先,在需求方面。您是否看到訂單簿中的任何壓力或新訂單的速度或由於消費者所承受的壓力而導致的任何類似的放緩?埃隆,鑑於您對經濟風險的看法,您是否對此感到擔憂?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Well, right now, our problem is very much production. So we've long leads on -- as anyone can tell, if they order our car, you order Model Y, it'll arrive sometime next year. So this is clearly not an issue for many months for us. Our problem is overwhelmingly that of production. So yes.

    好吧,現在,我們的問題是非常多的生產。所以我們有很長的領先優勢——任何人都知道,如果他們訂購我們的汽車,你訂購 Model Y,它會在明年某個時候到貨。所以這對我們來說顯然不是幾個月的問題。我們的問題絕大多數是生產問題。所以是的。

  • Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

    Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

  • Okay. Maybe just 2 things to add. Specifically on your question, are we seeing a macroeconomic impact on our demand? Not that I can tell. Maybe a little.

    好的。也許只需要添加兩件事。特別是關於您的問題,我們是否看到宏觀經濟對我們的需求產生影響?不是我能說的。或許一點點。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Some maybe.

    有些可能。

  • Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

    Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

  • But it's not material. The second thing to Elon's point about backlogs, we have a very long runway with very long lead times here. I mean, certainly, the world is uncertain, and we'll have to see where things go with commodity prices, how quickly we're ramping production, what the state of the road looks like at some point next year. But the demand is not something we spend really any time talking about.

    但這不是物質。 Elon 關於積壓的第二點是,我們的跑道很長,交貨時間也很長。我的意思是,當然,世界是不確定的,我們必須看看大宗商品價格的走勢,我們提高產量的速度,明年某個時候的路況如何。但需求並不是我們真正花時間談論的東西。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think it's -- maybe just 1 thing worth mentioning the -- that there is surface between value for money and fundamental affordability because sometimes people say, "Well, if you got all this demand. Why don't you just raise the price to some -- double the price or something?" And this is usually expressed by somebody who's rich.

    是的。我認為 - 也許只有一件事值得一提 - 物有所值和基本負擔能力之間存在表面,因為有時人們會說,“好吧,如果你有所有這些需求。你為什麼不把價格提高到一些——雙倍的價格還是什麼?”這通常由富有的人表達。

  • But there's -- even if you rail value for money to infinity, if somebody does concerns, do not have enough money to buy it, even a product where the desirability is rail to infinity, they basically cannot buy it. So this is why you kind of just raise prices to some arbitrarily high level because you pass the affordability boundary and then the demand falls off a cliff.

    但是有——即使你把物超所值推到無限,如果有人擔心,沒有足夠的錢買它,即使是一個產品的需求是無限的,他們基本上也買不到。所以這就是為什麼你只是將價格提高到某個任意高的水平,因為你超過了負擔能力的界限,然後需求就從懸崖上掉了下來。

  • So I do feel like we've raised our prices or we raise the price quite a few times. They're frankly at embarrassing levels. But we've also had a lot of supply chain and production trucks and as we've got crazy inflation. So I'm hopeful, this is not a promise or anything, but I'm hopeful that at some point, we can reduce the prices a little bit.

    所以我確實覺得我們已經提高了價格,或者我們將價格提高了好幾次。坦率地說,他們處於令人尷尬的水平。但是我們也有很多供應鍊和生產卡車,而且我們有瘋狂的通貨膨脹。所以我很有希望,這不是一個承諾或任何東西,但我希望在某個時候,我們可以稍微降低價格。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you. Emmanuel, do you have a follow-up?

    謝謝你。伊曼紐爾,你有後續嗎?

  • Emmanuel Rosner - Director & Research Analyst

    Emmanuel Rosner - Director & Research Analyst

  • Yes. My follow-up was actually on the supply side. So it was very encouraging to see that you're quantifying your current installed capacity at basically already in excess of 1.9 million units installed currently. How quickly do you think that you can fill that capacity?

    是的。我的後續行動實際上是在供應方面。因此,非常令人鼓舞的是,您正在量化您當前的裝機容量,目前已基本超過 190 萬台。你認為你能以多快的速度填補這個容量?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Well, I mean, we -- I think we've got a good chance of exiting this year at 40,000 vehicles a week.

    好吧,我的意思是,我們 - 我認為我們今年很有可能以每週 40,000 輛的速度退出市場。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes. I mean our internal plans are to have the capacity utilized by the end of the year. It takes time to ramp there. It will be a challenge. There's a lot that needs to happen to get there but that's what we're working on.

    是的。我的意思是我們的內部計劃是在今年年底之前使用這些容量。那裡需要時間。這將是一個挑戰。有很多事情需要發生才能到達那裡,但這就是我們正在努力的方向。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes. We've had many 30,000-car weeks already, so I think a 40,000-car week is within reach by the end of this year.

    是的。我們已經有很多 30,000 輛汽車週,所以我認為 40,000 輛汽車周到今年年底是可以實現的。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Shanghai and Fremont, as we said last month for record production and they're really fire to better doing really well. But then also Berlin are coming on strong. Theoretically, they also had record quarters, last quarter. And if we ramp them to the capacity shown in the deck by the end of this year, we'll be at that rate.

    上海和弗里蒙特,正如我們上個月所說的唱片製作,他們真的很想做得更好。但隨後柏林也正在強勢崛起。從理論上講,他們也有創紀錄的季度,上個季度。如果我們在今年年底之前將它們提升到甲板上顯示的容量,我們就會達到這個速度。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • There's always a lot of uncertainty like the production looks like S-curve, and that intermediate part of S-curve the difficult to bridge that with high certainty. But the end part of the S-curve, you can say, I think you can have a lot more certainty. And so that's why I'm confident we'll get to 5,000 cars a week at -- in Austin and Berlin by the end of this year or early next year and probably but not certainly, 10,000 cars a week at both locations by the end of next year.

    總是有很多不確定性,比如製作看起來像 S 曲線,而 S 曲線的中間部分很難以高度確定的方式彌合。但是 S 曲線的末端部分,你可以說,我認為你可以有更多的確定性。這就是為什麼我有信心我們將在今年年底或明年初在奧斯汀和柏林每週生產 5,000 輛汽車,可能但不確定,到年底這兩個地點每週生產 10,000 輛汽車明年的。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you. The next question comes from Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer.

    謝謝你。下一個問題來自奧本海默的 Colin Rusch。

  • Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst

    Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Could you talk a little bit about the pricing strategy around FSD, and as you get closer to this full functionality rolling out and the increased cycle times, how you see that evolving through the balance of this year and into 2023?

    您能否談談 FSD 的定價策略,隨著您越來越接近推出完整的功能和增加的周期時間,您如何看待今年和 2023 年的平衡?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes, we will increase the price of FSD sometime later this year. I think probably just before we go to quiet beta or beta is anyone who wants to use the beta software with all the caveats associated with that can use it, then it would make sense to increase the price of FSD. The value of FSD is, I think, extremely high and not well understood by most people. It is basically currently ridiculously cheap, assuming FSD materializes, which is well.

    是的,我們將在今年晚些時候提高 FSD 的價格。我認為可能就在我們進入安靜的測試版或測試版之前,任何想要使用帶有所有相關警告的測試版軟件的人都可以使用它,那麼提高 FSD 的價格是有意義的。我認為 FSD 的價值非常高,大多數人都不太了解。假設 FSD 實現,它目前基本上便宜得離譜,這很好。

  • Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst

    Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Great. And then sorry to belabor a little bit on battery materials side. But in terms of some of the suppliers and the contaminants, can you be a little bit more specific around some of the elements that you guys see in some of your supply chain that can prove troublesome yields for the 4680s, particularly around lithium and potential contaminants in either oxides, the carbonates that you guys end up seeing real issues with as you move into production?

    偉大的。然後很抱歉在電池材料方面稍作說明。但是就一些供應商和污染物而言,您能否更具體地了解你們在某些供應鏈中看到的一些元素,這些元素可能會證明 4680 的產量很麻煩,特別是在鋰和潛在污染物方面在這兩種氧化物中,你們最終在投入生產時遇到真正問題的碳酸鹽?

  • Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

    Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn - Master of Coin & CFO

  • Yes. I don't really think we have anything to comment on, yes, the purity specs of lithium on this call right now, yes.

    是的。我真的不認為我們有什麼要評論的,是的,現在這個電話中鋰的純度規格,是的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes. The contaminants from the 4680 are not a factor, which is not an issue.

    是的。來自 4680 的污染物不是一個因素,這不是問題。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you very much. The next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi from Bernstein.

    非常感謝。下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Toni Sacconaghi。

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • Yes. I have two as well. In response to the question around demand, I think, Zach, you said maybe a little, and Elon, you said maybe some indication that you might see some pressure on demand. And I'm wondering if that is really just speculation or whether there's any empirical data that you saw in the last month, whether it be cancellations or order lead times that led you to make that comment.

    是的。我也有兩個。在回答有關需求的問題時,我認為,扎克,你說的可能有點,埃隆,你說的可能有一些跡象表明你可能會看到一些需求壓力。我想知道這是否真的只是猜測,或者您在上個月看到的任何經驗數據,無論是取消還是訂單提前期導致您發表評論。

  • I think anecdotally, if you squint, the lead times have gotten a little lower over the last 4 months in both China and the U.S. That's really the only visibility investors have. So I'm wondering if you could maybe elaborate on whether that's really just you're sort of anticipating there could be some impact because of high prices or whether they're something anecdotally or quantitatively that you could point to, please?

    我認為有趣的是,如果你瞇著眼睛,在過去的 4 個月裡,中國和美國的交貨時間都變短了。這確實是投資者唯一的能見度。所以我想知道你是否可以詳細說明一下,這是否真的只是你預期會因為高價格而產生一些影響,或者它們是否是你可以指出的軼事或定量的東西,好嗎?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • No. I mean, I think we've said this now for many years, I know has proven true. Tesla does not have a demand problem, we have a production problem. And we've almost always had it's a very rare exception it's always been a production problem. I think that will remain the case.

    不,我的意思是,我想我們已經說了很多年了,我知道這已經證明是真的。特斯拉沒有需求問題,我們有生產問題。而且我們幾乎總是遇到這是一個非常罕見的例外,它一直是生產問題。我認為情況仍將如此。

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • So there's a denominator and a numerator and like, you increase production?

    所以有一個分母和一個分子,你會增加產量嗎?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Yes, absolutely. As we increase production, more demand is needed obviously.

    是的,一點沒錯。隨著我們增加產量,顯然需要更多的需求。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • No, it's more just like you can't look at the backlog and state much about demand because we're doing a lot on the other side to change the production.

    不,這更像是您無法查看積壓訂單並說明太多需求,因為我們在另一邊做了很多工作來改變生產。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • We're trying to make the backlog lower, not longer.

    我們正在努力減少積壓,而不是更長。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Building factories and building...

    建廠和建...

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • We don't want a long backlog. That's annoying. It'd be like go to a restaurant and you order a burger and you have to wait 3 hours and like, that's annoying. You want to get your burger right away. Same with the car. So we want that lead times to reduce.

    我們不希望長期積壓。這很煩人。這就像去一家餐館,你點了一個漢堡,你必須等 3 個小時,這很煩人。你想馬上得到你的漢堡。和車一樣。所以我們希望縮短交貨時間。

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Now I was just trying to follow up on the fact that you both said that maybe we're seeing demand be impacted a little bit, and that was the spirit of the question.

    好的。現在我只是想跟進一個事實,你們倆都說過,也許我們看到需求受到了一點影響,這就是問題的精神所在。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • We don't have like -- like because we see daily orders from around the world for our cars, it's actually -- it is like a mood barometer of people's confidence in the economy. But one can't read too much into it because things can vary a great deal from 1 day to the next. Consumer sentiment is all over the map. So it's -- manage price, frankly. But we have so much excess demand. That is really just not an issue for us. It might be an issue for some other companies but it is not an issue for us.

    我們沒有喜歡 - 因為我們每天看到來自世界各地的汽車訂單,實際上 - 它就像人們對經濟信心的情緒晴雨表。但是人們不能過多地閱讀它,因為從 1 天到下一天,事情可能會有很大的不同。消費者情緒無處不在。因此,坦率地說,就是管理價格。但是我們有太多的過剩需求。這對我們來說真的不是問題。這對其他一些公司可能是個問題,但對我們來說不是問題。

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Elon, I'm just wondering, a question for you. Tesla's obviously changed dramatically in the last 3 years from near life or death to a company with consistent cash flow and industry-leading margins. I'm wondering if you can comment on your personal role in the company and whether you see that changing in terms of your role, your commitment and time spent at the company over the next 3 or 4 years.

    好的。埃隆,我只是想知道,問你一個問題。在過去的 3 年裡,特斯拉顯然發生了巨大的變化,從生死攸關的公司變成了一家擁有穩定現金流和行業領先利潤率的公司。我想知道您是否可以評論您在公司中的個人角色,以及您是否看到未來 3 或 4 年在您的角色、您的承諾和在公司花費的時間方面發生的變化。

  • I think you said a few calls ago, you wouldn't be on calls unless there's something unusual and you've been on every call since then. I'm wondering.

    我想你之前說過幾個電話,除非有什麼不尋常的事情,否則你不會接聽電話,從那以後你一直在接聽每一個電話。我在想。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • I do a lot of unusual things, let's face it. Basically, if there's only good news, I won't be on the call. But if you have like a tough situation like COVID shutdowns in China, then I think I'll be on the call -- relatively speaking, if there's bad news. And we have this good news, then I won't be on the call.

    我做了很多不尋常的事情,讓我們面對現實吧。基本上,如果只有好消息,我不會接聽電話。但是,如果您遇到像中國 COVID 關閉這樣的艱難情況,那麼我想我會隨時待命——相對而言,如果有壞消息。我們有這個好消息,那我就不接電話了。

  • But I'm committed to the long -- I mean, I'll work at Tesla as long as I can usefully advance the cause of sustainability and autonomy.

    但我致力於長期——我的意思是,只要我能夠有效地推進可持續性和自主性的事業,我就會在特斯拉工作。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Fantastic. Thank you very much. The next question comes from William Stein.

    極好的。非常感謝。下一個問題來自威廉斯坦。

  • William Stein - MD

    William Stein - MD

  • Elon, in the past, you've given some assessment as to the likelihood that you can achieve success in some of the more interesting AI-oriented efforts, not only FSD but also Dojo and Optimus. Perhaps you can give an updated view on those.

    Elon,在過去,您已經對您在一些更有趣的面向 AI 的工作中取得成功的可能性進行了一些評估,不僅是 FSD,還有 Dojo 和 Optimus。也許您可以對這些提供更新的看法。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Well, I don't want to steal thunder from AI Day. So I think we'll have some exciting news on AI Day that I think will be further ahead than probably most people think. But I don't want to -- I'd love to answer you but I think we'll leave that excitement for AI Day.

    好吧,我不想從 AI Day 搶風頭。所以我認為我們將在 AI Day 上有一些令人興奮的消息,我認為這些消息可能會比大多數人想像的更進一步。但我不想——我很想回答你,但我認為我們會將這種興奮留給 AI 日。

  • William Stein - MD

    William Stein - MD

  • Okay. And perhaps a follow-up if I can. We've heard a lot from others and certainly to some degree from you all about the shortages in semiconductors, in particular. We have seen some big, important customers of that type of product decide to sort of leverage the ecosystems that exist to make some of their own in those categories.

    好的。如果可以的話,也許還有後續行動。我們從其他人那裡聽到了很多,當然在某種程度上也從你們那裡聽到了關於半導體短缺的問題,特別是。我們已經看到這類產品的一些大而重要的客戶決定利用現有的生態系統在這些類別中製造一些自己的產品。

  • I'm wondering to what degree you're doing that. That's outside of Dojo in terms of the -- I guess, on the inference side, you're certainly doing that in the car, but what about sort of the more mundane areas like microcontrollers and the like? Is there any internal effort to improve supply chain and maybe improve other performance aspects?

    我想知道你這樣做到什麼程度。這在 Dojo 之外——我想,在推理方面,你肯定是在車裡做的,但是像微控制器之類的更普通的領域呢?是否有任何內部努力來改善供應鏈並可能改善其他績效方面?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Well, there's we've done -- we've been working with our suppliers side. We don't currently intend to make chips ourselves. We don't think there will be a need to make chips, but we have been working closely with a number of suppliers. Actually just met with one of our key supplier's CEOs right before this call. We had a great meeting. They're going to make major investments in some of the critical chips and components that we need in the car.

    好吧,我們已經完成了——我們一直在與我們的供應商合作。我們目前不打算自己製造芯片。我們認為不需要製造芯片,但我們一直在與許多供應商密切合作。實際上,就在這次電話會議之前,我們剛剛與我們的一位主要供應商的 CEO 會面。我們舉行了一次很棒的會議。他們將對我們在汽車中所需的一些關鍵芯片和組件進行重大投資。

  • And I'd actually like to take a moment to thank our key suppliers once again for supporting us through difficult times. And they really went above and beyond to support us. So to all our suppliers out there, thanks very much.

    實際上,我想花一點時間再次感謝我們的主要供應商在困難時期支持我們。他們真的不遺餘力地支持我們。非常感謝我們所有的供應商。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes. And I guess just maybe we don't talk about it very often, but we do have a lot of custom silicon in the vehicle already. Microcontrollers, yes, some battery management, yes, some power electronics, yes, some. So we try to go after where there's actually a technical advantage. And in the future, I think we're going to look at where there's a supplier...

    是的。而且我想也許我們不經常談論它,但我們確實已經在車輛中有很多定制的矽片。微控制器,是的,一些電池管理,是的,一些電力電子設備,是的,一些。所以我們試圖去追求實際上有技術優勢的地方。在未來,我想我們會看看哪裡有供應商......

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • (inaudible) even now where the supply chain issues with our Tier 1s and Tier 2s, get into it with us on the engineering side when we find solutions, whether it's alternative chips or changing the entire structure of this pack to make it work. And I think that's an advantage we have that many other OEs just simply cannot.

    (聽不清)即使是現在我們的第 1 層和第 2 層出現供應鏈問題,當我們找到解決方案時,無論是替代芯片還是改變這個包的整個結構以使其工作,在工程方面與我們一起解決問題。我認為這是我們擁有的優勢,許多其他 OE 根本無法做到。

  • I think Tesla is as much a software company as it is a hardware company. And so one of the ways that we've been able to address supply chain issues on the chip front is by rewriting of software to be able to use different chips or, in some cases, achieve dual use of a single chip, which is even better. And actually, quite frankly, the chip shortage has served as a forcing function for us to reduce the number of chips in the car. Yes, it turns out we had more chips than we needed.

    我認為特斯拉既是一家軟件公司,也是一家硬件公司。因此,我們能夠解決芯片前端供應鏈問題的方法之一是重寫軟件以能夠使用不同的芯片,或者在某些情況下,實現單個芯片的雙重使用,甚至更好的。實際上,坦率地說,芯片短缺已經成為我們減少汽車芯片數量的一種強制功能。是的,事實證明我們的籌碼比我們需要的多。

  • But that's a testament to our software team that we're able to roll a new chip into the car, write a whole new patch of software for that chip and -- without interrupting production.

    但這向我們的軟件團隊證明,我們能夠將新芯片裝入汽車,為該芯片編寫全新的軟件補丁,並且 - 無需中斷生產。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes. And our goal is as we mature and scale the platforms is to integrate more functionality into fewer chips, like that is the way that it's gone with laptops and phones. It's going that way in cars. And we're trying to do that wherever it makes sense to do it as quickly as we can.

    是的。我們的目標是隨著平台的成熟和擴展,將更多功能集成到更少的芯片中,就像筆記本電腦和手機一樣。在汽車上就是這樣。我們正在努力盡可能快地做到這一點。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • From a supply chain standpoint, do we -- what do you think about the chips and whatnot?

    從供應鏈的角度來看,我們——你對芯片有什麼看法?

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes. I think -- I mean, from a high level, instead of designing and building our own microcontrollers, we're partnering with key partners that understand the architectural requirements and they'll take the specs and design something for us. We've done that, to your point, the battery sensing space. We've got some application-specific ICs. But yes, integrating, reducing the number of components, it's a mix of supply chain but it also makes the reliability of the end product better because there's less failure points. So that's always been the mantra.

    是的。我認為 - 我的意思是,從高層次上看,我們不是設計和構建我們自己的微控制器,而是與了解架構要求的關鍵合作夥伴合作,他們將採用規格並為我們設計一些東西。我們已經做到了,就您而言,電池感應空間。我們有一些特定於應用的 IC。但是,是的,集成,減少組件的數量,它是供應鏈的混合,但它也使最終產品的可靠性更好,因為故障點更少。所以這一直是口頭禪。

  • Lars Moravy - VP of Vehicle Engineering

    Lars Moravy - VP of Vehicle Engineering

  • And at times, we've also got the wafer level and try to consume less to achieve the same functionality. So that's something also that we've been looking at in some of the constrained modules that we have faced in the last 6 months.

    有時,我們也獲得了晶圓級並嘗試減少消耗以實現相同的功能。這也是我們在過去 6 個月中遇到的一些受限模塊中一直在研究的問題。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Fantastic. Well, thank you very much. I appreciate all of your questions. Unfortunately, this is all the time we have this quarter, and we will speak to you again in 3 months' time. Thank you very much, and goodbye.

    極好的。好的,謝謝。我很感激你的所有問題。不幸的是,這是我們本季度的所有時間,我們將在 3 個月後再次與您交談。非常感謝,再見。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director

  • Bye.

    再見。