特斯拉 (TSLA) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Fourth Quarter 2021 Q&A Webcast. My name is Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives. Our Q4 results were announced at about 3:00 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

各位下午好，歡迎參加特斯拉2021財年第四季問答網路直播。我是投資者關係高級總監馬丁·維查，今天與我一同出席的還有伊隆·馬斯克、扎卡里·柯克霍恩以及其他幾位高階主管。我們的第四季業績已於美國中部時間下午3點左右在更新文件中公佈，該文件與本次網路直播的連結相同。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions)

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論公司業務展望並發表前瞻性聲明。這些聲明是基於我們截至目前為止的預測和預期。由於許多風險和不確定因素，包括我們在最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提及的風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能與這些預測和預期有重大差異。 （操作說明）

But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

但在進入問答環節之前，伊隆先說幾句開場白。埃隆？

Thanks, Martin. So just to recap 2021, it was a breakthrough year for Tesla and for electric vehicles in general. And while we battled, and everyone did, with supply chain challenges through the year, we managed to grow our volumes by nearly 90% last year. This level of growth didn't happen by coincidence. It was a result of ingenuity and hard work across multiple teams throughout the company.

謝謝，馬丁。簡單回顧一下2021年，對於特斯拉以及整個電動車產業來說，這都是突破性的一年。雖然我們和所有人一樣，在這一年中都面臨著供應鏈方面的挑戰，但我們去年的銷量仍然成長了近90%。這種成長並非偶然，而是公司各個團隊通力合作、共同努力的成果。

Additionally, we reached the highest operating margin in the industry in the last widely reported quarter at over 14% GAAP operating margin. Lastly, thanks to $5.5 billion of GAAP net income in 2021, our accumulated profitability since the inception of the company became positive, which I think makes us a real company at this point. This is a critical milestone for the company.

此外，在最近一個廣為人知的季度中，我們實現了業界最高的營業利潤率，GAAP 營業利潤率超過 14%。最後，由於 2021 年 55 億美元的 GAAP 淨利潤，公司自成立以來的累計盈利終於轉正，我認為這使我們真正成為一家成熟的公司。這對公司而言是一個重要的里程碑。

So after an exceptional year, we shift our focus to the future, Texas and Berlin. So we've begun production at both Texas and Berlin. We started that last quarter. But that's not the most important thing. We focus more on when do we get to volume production and when can we deliver cars to customers. But I think it is worth noting that, and as the Internet has observed, we've been making quite a few cars in Austin and Berlin.

在經歷了非凡的一年後，我們將重心轉向未來，聚焦於德州和柏林。我們在德州和柏林都已開始投產，上個季度正式啟動。但這並非最重要的事。我們更關注的是何時實現量產，何時能夠交付車輛給客戶。不過，值得一提的是，正如網路上所報導的，我們在奧斯汀和柏林已經生產了相當數量的車輛。

So in Texas, we're building the Model Ys with the structural battery pack and the 4680 cells, and we will start delivering after final certification of vehicle, which should be fairly soon. Capacity expansion will continue through maximizing output of each factory and building new factories in new locations in the future. Although we're not ready to announce any new locations on this call, but we will, through 2022, look at new locations and probably be able to announce new locations towards the end of this year, I expect.

因此，在德克薩斯州，我們正在生產配備結構化電池組和4680電芯的Model Y，車輛最終認證完成後即可開始交付，這應該很快就能完成。產能擴張將透過最大化現有工廠的產能以及未來在新的地點建造新工廠來實現。雖然我們目前還不方便在本次電話會議上宣布任何新廠址，但我們將在2022年之前考察新的廠址，並預計今年年底前就能公佈。

In 2022, supply chain will continue to be the fundamental limiter of output across all factories. So the chip shortage, while better than last year, is still an issue. And yes, there are multiple supply chain challenges. And last year was difficult to predict and hopefully, this year will be smooth-sailing, but I'm not sure what you do for an encore to 2021, 2020. Nonetheless, we do expect significant growth in 2022 over 2021, comfortably above 50% growth in 2022.

2022年，供應鏈仍將是所有工廠產量的根本限制因素。因此，晶片短缺問題雖然比去年有所改善，但仍然存在。的確，供應鏈面臨諸多挑戰。去年的情況難以預測，希望今年能一帆風順，但我不確定如何重現2021年和2020年的糟糕局面。儘管如此，我們預計2022年將比2021年實現顯著成長，增幅將輕鬆超過50%。

Full Self-Driving. So over time, we think Full Self-Driving will become the most important source of profitability for Tesla. I mean actually, if you run the numbers on robotaxis, it's kind of nutty. It's nutty good from a financial standpoint. And I think we're completely confident at this point that it will be achieved. And my personal guess is that we'll achieve Full Self-Driving this year, yes, with data safety level significantly greater than at present. So the cars in the fleet essentially becoming self-driving via a software update, I think, might end up being the biggest increase in asset value of any asset class in history. We shall see. It would also have a profound impact on improving safety and on accelerating the world towards sustainable energy through vastly better asset utilization.

完全自動駕駛。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，完全自動駕駛將成為特斯拉最重要的獲利來源。實際上，如果你計算一下無人駕駛計程車的收益，你會發現它簡直不可思議。從財務角度來看，它簡直好得令人難以置信。而且我認為，我們現在完全有信心實現這個目標。我個人預測，我們將在今年實現完全自動駕駛，而且資料安全等級將遠高於目前水準。因此，透過軟體更新使車隊中的車輛基本上實現自動駕駛，我認為這最終可能會成為歷史上任何資產類別中資產價值增幅最大的一次。讓我們拭目以待。它也將對提高安全性產生深遠影響，並透過大幅提高資產利用率，加速世界向永續能源轉型。

Let's see, so on the product road map front, there's quite a lot to talk about. I'm not going to go through every sort of thing that we're working on because I think a lot of them deserve product launches of their own as opposed to a few minutes on an earnings call. So I'll talk kind of mostly at a high level.

嗯，關於產品路線圖，有很多內容要講。我不會一一贅述我們正在開發的所有項目，因為我認為其中許多都值得單獨發布，而不是在財報電話會議上匆匆帶過。所以我主要會從宏觀層面談談。

The fundamental focus of Tesla this year is scaling output. So both last year and this year, if we were to introduce new vehicles, our total vehicle output would decrease. This is a very important point that I think a lot of people do not understand. So last year, we spent a lot of engineering and management resources solving supply chain issues: rewriting code, changing our chips, reducing the number of chips we need, with chip drama central. And that was not the only supply chain issue. So there's just hundreds of things. And as a result, we were able to grow almost 90% while at least almost every other manufacturer contracted last year. So that's a good result.

今年特斯拉的核心重點是擴大產能。所以無論是去年還是今年，如果我們推出新車型，總產量都會下降。這一點非常重要，但很多人可能不明白。去年，我們投入了大量的工程和管理資源來解決供應鏈問題：重寫程式碼、更換晶片、減少晶片需求量，以及應對晶片供應危機。但這還不是唯一的供應鏈問題，實際上有數百個面向需要解決。最終，我們實現了近90%的成長，而去年幾乎所有其他製造商的產量都在下降。這是一個非常好的結果。

But if we had introduced, say, a new car last year, our total vehicle output would have been the same because of the chips constraints, particularly. So if we'd actually introduced an additional product, that would then require a bunch of attention and resources on that increased complexity of the additional product, resulting in fewer vehicles actually being delivered. And the same is true of this year so we will not be introducing new vehicle models this year. It would not make any sense because we'll still be parts constrained. We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling and whatnot to create those vehicles: Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year. That is most likely. But like I said, it is dependent on are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars.

但即便我們去年推出了一輛新車，由於晶片供應的限制，我們的總產量也不會改變。也就是說，如果我們真的推出了新產品，就需要投入大量的精力和資源來應對這款產品增加的複雜性，最終導致實際交付的車輛數量減少。今年的情況也是如此，所以我們今年不會推出新的車型。這樣做毫無意義，因為我們仍然會受到零件供應的限制。不過，我們會投入大量的工程研發、工具開發等工作來打造Cyber​​truck、Semi、Roadster和Optimus等車型，並爭取明年投產。這很有可能。但正如我所說，最終取決於我們能夠生產更多的汽車還是更少的汽車。

So in terms of priority of products, I think actually the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the Optimus humanoid robot. This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time. If you think about the economy, the foundation of the economy is labor. Capital equipment is distilled labor. So what happens if you don't actually have a labor shortage? I'm not sure what an economy even means at that point. That's what Optimus is about. So very important.

所以就產品優先順序而言，我認為我們今年最重要的產品研發其實是擎天柱人形機器人。我認為，從長遠來看，它有可能比汽車業務更重要。想想經濟，經濟的基礎是勞動。資本設備是勞力的結晶。那麼，如果勞動力不再短缺會怎麼樣呢？我甚至不確定到那時經濟的意義何在。這就是擎天柱的意義。它非常重要。

Drew, do you want me to talk about the 4680 program? Or is this good, the right time?

德魯，你想讓我談談4680年計畫嗎？還是現在正是時候？

Yes. Sure. So throughout 2021, we focused on growing cell supply alongside our in-house 4680 effort to provide us flexibility and insurance as we attempt to grow as fast as possible. As we sit today, sales from suppliers actually sort of exceeds our other factory-limiting constraints that you mentioned, Elon, in 2022. Or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans based on the information we have.

是的，當然。因此，在整個2021年，我們專注於擴大電池供應，同時推進內部4680電池的生產，以確保我們在盡可能快速增長的同時，擁有足夠的靈活性和保障。就目前而言，供應商的銷售額實際上已經超過了您提到的其他限制我們產能的因素，埃隆。換句話說，根據我們掌握的信息，4680電池不會限制我們2022年的產量計劃。

But we are making meaningful progress up the ramp curve in Kato. We're building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter. Our focus on the cell, the pack and the vehicles here is driving yield quality and cost to ensure we're ready for larger volumes this year as we ramp and next year. And the 4680 and pack tool installations here at Giga Austin are progressing well with some areas producing first parts. And the Internet has also noticed that. Yes, I was touring the cell factory here. I'm super pumped. It's like a really exciting accomplishment for us to bring everything into one awesome factory here in Texas.

我們在加藤工廠的產能爬坡階段取得了顯著進展。我們每天生產4680個結構電池組，這些電池組正在德克薩斯州組裝成車輛。我前天和昨天都試駕了一輛。我們相信，首批搭載4,680電池的車輛將在本季交付。我們專注於電池、電池組和車輛的研發，以提高良率、品質和降低成本，確保我們能夠為今年產能爬坡和明年的更大產量做好準備。奧斯汀超級工廠的4,680電池和電池組生產設備安裝進展順利，部分區域已經開始生產首批零件。網路上也報導了這一點。是的，我參觀了這裡的電池工廠。我非常激動。能夠將所有環節集中在德州這座令人驚嘆的工廠裡，這對我們來說是一項非常了不起的成就。

Absolutely. And just to repeat Drew's point, we still expect to be partly or primarily chip limited this year. So that's the thing that's actually the driver. And that chip limitation should alleviate next year. And then probably, we transition into a cell limitation battery, so total gigawatt hours of cell limitation, which is when the 4680 will become very important.

沒錯。我再重複一下德魯的觀點，我們預計今年仍將部分或主要受限於晶片。這才是真正的驅動因素。晶片限制的問題明年應該會有所緩解。之後，我們可能會過渡到受限於電池單元的電池容量，也就是總吉瓦時數受限，屆時4,680晶片將變得至關重要。

Agreed.

同意。

Thank you very much. And now Zach has some opening remarks as well.

非常感謝。現在札克也想致開幕詞。

Pretty long opening remarks.

開場白有點長。

Yes. Thanks, Martin. As Elon mentioned, 2021 was a financially transformative year for the company. If we look across the full year '21 and compare that to 2020, our automotive gross margin, excluding credits, rose by over 600 basis points enabled by work on cost reduction, utilization of our Shanghai factory for exports and accelerating demand.

是的，謝謝馬丁。正如埃隆所說，2021年對公司而言是具有里程碑意義的一年。如果我們縱觀2021年全年，並與2020年進行比較，在不計入信貸的情況下，我們的汽車業務毛利率增長了600多個基點，這得益於成本削減、上海工廠出口化利用以及需求加速增長。

OpEx as a percentage of revenue reduced despite the impact of onetime items and unique items. And operating income more than tripled, with operating margin reaching our guidance of mid-teens. And these margins are trending up. We also saw regulatory credits accounting for a relatively small portion of our 2021 profitability, which we expect to continue to reduce in materiality going forward.

儘管受到一次性項目和特殊項目的影響，營運支出佔收入的比例仍然下降。營業收入成長超過三倍，營業利益率達到我們預期的15%左右。而且這些利潤率都在持續上升。此外，監管稅收抵免在我們2021年的獲利中所佔比例相對較小，我們預計未來這一比例將繼續下降。

For Q4 specifically, automotive gross margin, excluding credits, increased to 29.2%, which is our highest yet. We do continue to see some impact of higher pricing on certain models and trends as was the case in prior quarters. But please keep in mind that due to backlogs, changes in pricing will generally impact our financials in future quarters. Supply chain challenges and port congestion resulted in a significant increase in our expedited costs in Q4. We also took reserves associated with warranty and recall costs.

具體到第四季度，不計抵扣額的汽車業務毛利率增加至29.2%，創歷史新高。與前幾季一樣，我們仍然看到部分車型和趨勢受到價格上漲的影響。但請注意，由於訂單積壓，價格變動通常會在未來幾季對我們的財務表現產生影響。供應鏈挑戰和港口擁塞導致第四季加急成本大幅增加。此外，我們也提列了與保固和召回成本相關的準備金。

Operating expenses were meaningfully impacted by stock-based compensation from the final 2 tranches of the CEO stock grant becoming probable and payroll taxes associated with the exercise of the 2012 CEO options. The total impact of these payroll taxes, warranty and recall costs and excess expedites was just over $700 million in the quarter.

營運費用受到執行長股票授予計畫最後兩批股票的兌現以及2012年執行長選擇權行使相關的工資稅的顯著影響。這些工資稅、保固和召回成本以及額外的加急費用在本季造成的總影響略高於7億美元。

Our free cash flows have remained strong, reaching record levels in Q4 of $2.8 billion despite increased CapEx. In addition to using cash to grow the business as quickly as we can, we have been retiring legacy and high interest debt. Note that we plan to continue to utilize the ABS market for product-specific financing.

儘管資本支出增加，我們的自由現金流依然強勁，第四季達到創紀錄的28億美元。除了利用現金盡快推動業務成長外，我們還償還了歷史遺留債務和高利債務。請注意，我們計劃繼續利用資產支持證券（ABS）市場為特定產品融資。

As we look forward, we expect 2022 to be another significant and exciting year for the company. We continue to drive for vehicle volume growth at or above 50%, as Elon mentioned, and our plans show that this is actually achievable with just our Fremont and Shanghai factories. For quite some time now, these factories have been running below capacity due to macro challenges with supply and logistics. As Elon mentioned as well, from what we're seeing, the pace of growth in 2022 will again be determined by supply chain and logistics, which is quite difficult for us to forecast.

展望未來，我們預期2022年將是公司另一個意義非凡且令人振奮的年份。正如馬斯克所言，我們將繼續努力實現50%或以上的汽車銷售成長，而我們的計畫表明，僅憑弗里蒙特和上海工廠就能實現這一目標。由於供應鏈和物流方面的宏觀挑戰，這兩家工廠的產能利用率一直低於預期。正如馬斯克也所提到的，根據我們目前所觀察到的情況，2022年的成長速度仍將取決於供應鏈和物流，而這方面的預測對我們來說相當困難。

Despite these constraints, it's important to begin the ramp of Austin and Berlin to ensure that we are prepared once limitations ease, enabling us to increase total output more quickly in the future. This will result in higher fixed and semi-variable costs in the near term, in addition to the usual inefficiencies as we ramp a new factory.

儘管有這些限制，但啟動奧斯汀和柏林工廠的產能提升至關重要，以確保一旦限制放寬，我們就能做好準備，從而在未來更快地提高總產量。這將導致短期內固定成本和半變動成本上升，此外，新廠投產初期還會出現一些效率低下的問題。

We are also seeing inflation and rising commodity prices, which we expect to continue to put pressure on our costs. How this specifically impacts gross margins in the near term is uncertain given a mix of both tailwinds and headwinds. However, we do expect to continue to see stronger operating margins as we grow our volumes and improve operating leverage. Over a longer-term horizon, we are quite optimistic about the expansion of margins though. From the hardware side, we are aggressively driving manufacturing innovations and operational efficiency to reduce cost. And with the rapid development of FSD, software-based profits will ultimately become a strong addition to the profits generated by selling hardware.

我們也看到通貨膨脹和大宗商品價格上漲，預計這將持續對我們的成本構成壓力。鑑於利好和不利因素交織，短期內毛利率的具體影響尚不明朗。然而，隨著銷售成長和營運槓桿的提升，我們預期營業利潤率將持續走強。從長遠來看，我們對利潤率的擴張持相當樂觀的態度。在硬體方面，我們正積極推動製造創新和營運效率提升，以降低成本。隨著全系統開發（FSD）的快速發展，軟體利潤最終將成為硬體銷售利潤的重要補充。

So congratulations to the Tesla team for a terrific 2021, and thank you to our suppliers who supported us. Looking forward to another great year.

恭喜特斯拉團隊在2021年取得了輝煌的成績，也感謝所有支持我們的供應商。期待新的一年再創佳績。

I'd like to just second the thank you to suppliers. A lot of suppliers worked late nights, weekends, vacations around the world, and we're very grateful for that.

我謹再次向供應商表示感謝。許多供應商為了我們，不辭辛勞，加班加點，甚至犧牲了週末和假期，遍布世界各地，我們對此深表感激。

Thank you very much. Let's go to the Q&A from the investor side. The first question was on 4680 cells, which we already answered, so let's go to the second question. How is the progress of the $25,000 compact car? Can you give an update?

非常感謝。接下來我們進入投資人問答環節。第一個問題是關於4680個電池的，我們已經回答過了，現在來看第二個問題。售價2.5萬美元的小型車進展如何？能否提供一下最新情況？

Well, we're not currently working on the $25,000 car. At some point, we will. But we have enough on our plate right now, too much on our plate, frankly. So at some point there, we'll be. I think that's sort of a question that is sort of the wrong question really. Really, the thing that overwhelmingly matters is when is the car autonomous. At the point in which it is autonomous, the cost of transport drops by, I don't know, a factor of 4 or 5.

嗯，我們目前還沒有著手研發那款售價2.5萬美元的車。以後一定會研發的。但我們現在手頭上的事情已經夠多了，坦白說，太多了。所以，到時候我們一定會研發的。我覺得這個問題本身就有點離題了。真正重要的是，這輛車什麼時候才能實現自動駕駛。一旦實現自動駕駛，運輸成本就會下降，我不知道，大概會下降四到五倍。

Thank you. The next question from investors is, since we're talking product road maps today, how do you view domestic cooling and heating in the context of accelerating the sustainable energy transition? And how might Tesla's HVAC and heat pump advances fit it?

謝謝。投資人的下一個問題是，既然我們今天在討論產品路線圖，您如何看待家用冷氣和暖氣在加速永續能源轉型中的作用？特斯拉在暖通空調和熱泵方面的技術進步又將如何融入其中？

Do you want to talk about that, Drew?

德魯，你想談談這件事嗎？

Yes. I think from a mission perspective, it's very aligned. If you imagine replacing natural gas, water and space heaters with electric heat pumps, it offsets something equivalent to like 80% of what a solar plus a Powerwall system would offset, so it's very impactful. And we have learned a lot about how to make capable and reliable heat pumps that work in all environmental conditions and are excited about the idea of working on that problem one day. Let me put it that way. It's definitely aligned with our mission to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy.

是的。我認為從使命的角度來看，這非常契合。試想一下，如果用電熱泵取代天然氣、熱水器和電暖器，其節能效果相當於太陽能加Powerwall系統節能效果的80%左右，所以影響非常顯著。我們已經累積了豐富的經驗，掌握瞭如何製造性能卓越、可靠耐用的熱泵，使其能夠在各種環境條件下穩定運作。我們非常期待未來能夠繼續致力於解決這個問題。總而言之，這與我們加速向永續能源轉型這項使命高度契合。

Yes, I think it really becomes quite a compelling solution to the consumer where you integrate the electric vehicle charging, solar energy storage, hot water, HVAC in a very tight, compact package that also looks good. It just doesn't exist.

是的，我認為如果能把電動車充電、太陽能儲能、熱水和暖通空調系統整合到一個非常緊湊、美觀的設備中，對消費者來說確實會是一個極具吸引力的解決方案。可惜的是，這樣的產品目前還不存在。

Yes, I mean the integration of those systems in a house...

是的，我是指將這些系統整合到住宅中…

That's Lars, by the way.

順便說一句，那是拉爾斯。

Sorry. The integration of those systems in a house are no different than the integration of those systems in a vehicle. The only difference is we do it all in the vehicle.

抱歉。這些系統在住宅中的整合與在車輛中的整合並無不同。唯一的區別在於，我們在車輛中完成了所有整合工作。

Way harder on a vehicle. It's so constrained on mass and volume and energy. It's like if you get to the house like wow...

對車輛來說負擔更重。它的質量、體積和能量都受到很大限制。就像你到家時會想：哇…

Kind of an easy problem.

這算是個比較簡單的問題。

Yes.

是的。

But obviously, those systems are all disparate and what we've been doing with Powerwall and charging solar is integrating them more and more. The next logical step is obviously HVAC and water and heating. So we will do that, and we will integrate it probably better than anyone has. But as you said, we have a lot of stuff on our plate.

但很顯然，這些系統都是各自獨立的，而我們一直在利用Powerwall和太陽能充電技術，逐步將它們整合起來。下一步合乎邏輯的做法顯然是整合暖通空調、熱水和暖氣系統。所以我們會著手這項工作，而且我們可能會比任何人都做得更好。但正如你所說，我們有很多事情要處理。

Yes. And mostly, it integrates -- like your phone or your phone app, everything. The car can -- like the house can just heat and cool things, right, because it knows that you're coming home type of thing. It still needs to be like randomly that temperature when you're not there or...

是的。而且它基本上可以整合——就像你的手機或手機應用程式一樣，所有東西都能整合。就像房子可以自動調節溫度一樣，對吧，因為它知道你要回家了。當然，當你不在家的時候，它仍然需要隨機調節溫度…

When the cat moves.

當貓移動時。

Yes, exactly. So do sensible things and just work really well. I think it would be just quite a game changer down the road. We've got a lot of fish frying on it. And so it is a thing we will do but we're not committing to a time frame at this point.

沒錯，就是這樣。所以，做些明智的事情，好好努力就好。我認為這從長遠來看會是一個很大的改變。我們有很多工作要做。所以，我們會做這件事，但目前我們還沒有確定具體的時間表。

And people should do it anyway.

而且人們無論如何都應該這麼做。

Yes, if somebody else wants to do it, yes.

是的，如果其他人想做的話，可以。

It's super beneficial for achieving the goal here.

這對於實現我們的目標非常有益。

Yes.

是的。

The next question is, would you consider splitting FSD packages into perpetual and term licenses with a higher tier for both options for commercial use? A perpetual license could be attached to individual or business and not the vehicle itself.

下一個問題是，您是否考慮將FSD軟體包拆分為永久許可和定期許可，並為這兩種選項都提供更高等級的商業用途許可？永久許可可以綁定到個人或企業，而不是車輛本身。

Now I mean it sounds maybe too complicated. We're just going to be focused on like what solves for the fully considered lowest cost per mile, kilometer of driving. So that's what matters, like how do you maximize the efficiency of getting people from one place to another and then charge them in a sensible way.

我的意思是，這聽起來可能太複雜了。我們只會專注於如何找到每英里、每公里行駛成本最低的綜合解決方案。所以關鍵在於，如何最大限度地提高人們從一個地方到另一個地方的旅行效率，然後以合理的方式收費。

Including the charging infrastructure. That's a big part of it.

包括充電基礎設施。這是其中很重要的一部分。

Yes, exactly, charging for money and charging for energy.

是的，沒錯，既要收費，又要收費。

Thank you. The next question is, is Dojo on track for summer 2022? And what challenges, if any, are you working through? Is Dojo necessary for FSD to operate better in cities like New York City? Or on a separate note, where should we expect the first implementation of Tesla Bot in your factories?

謝謝。下一個問題是，Dojo 能否按計劃在 2022 年夏季推出？如果是，你們正在努力克服哪些挑戰？ Dojo 對於 FSD 在紐約等城市更好地運作是否必不可少？另外，我們應該在你們的工廠的哪些地方看到 Tesla Bot 的首次應用？

Okay. There's a few questions on there.

好的，上面有幾個問題。

Like 6 questions.

比如6個問題。

Yes, Dojo appears to be on track for doing something useful in the summer of this year. I think the threshold that really matters is, at which point, when does it become more competitive than a GPU cluster for training. And obviously, the GPU cluster is getting better. So it's a moving target. But that's the goal I've set for the team. The FSD team running our GPU supercluster needs to tell me that they want to use Dojo instead. That's the obvious sort of threshold. And I don't know when that will be.

是的，Dojo 看起來有望在今年夏天發揮一些實際作用。我認為真正重要的臨界點在於，它何時才能在訓練方面比 GPU 叢集更具競爭力。顯然，GPU 叢集的效能也在不斷提升。所以這是一個不斷變化的目標。但這正是我為團隊設定的目標。運行我們 GPU 超級叢集的 FSD 團隊需要明確表示他們希望改用 Dojo。這顯然是一個重要的臨界點。但我不知道這個臨界點何時才會到來。

I wouldn't say like success is 100% certain here. I think we just generally want to overestimate meeting options and underestimate ourselves. But it does seem as though we might pass that threshold next year with Dojo if we execute well. Dojo is not needed for full self-driving but it is a cost optimization on creating vast amounts of video data. Cost optimization is also a rate of improvement. So if you can train models faster, have a shorter iteration interval, then you can make progress faster. So not everything can be distributed to something like GPUs. There's some elements of serialization there.

我不會說成功百分之百確定。我認為我們通常會高估各種方案的可能性，低估自身的能力。但如果我們執行得當，明年憑藉 Dojo 平台，我們似乎有可能跨越這個門檻。 Dojo 並非實現完全自動駕駛的必要條件，但它可以優化海量視訊資料的產生成本。成本優化也意味著改進速度的提升。因此，如果模型訓練速度更快，迭代周期更短，就能更快取得進展。所以，並非所有工作都能分配給 GPU 之類的裝置。其中存在一些串行化的問題。

And then if Dojo is competitive, then it does seem like the kind of thing where we would offer it to other companies that want to do neural net training. Those are very much a neural net training optimized system. But in theory, it should be better than a generalized computing platform or, say, GPUs, which are not really intended for -- the pixel trader is not directly intended for optimizing training of neural networks. They just happen to work better than CPUs in most cases. So we should be thinking of like Dojo as like a giant ASIC optimized for neural net training, especially video [or video-like] things. But like I said, we're not saying for sure that Dojo would succeed. We think it will. We would encourage those who think this is an interesting problem to join Tesla.

如果 Dojo 具有競爭力，那麼我們似乎可以將其提供給其他想要進行神經網路訓練的公司。 Dojo 本身就是一個針對神經網路訓練進行最佳化的系統。理論上，它應該優於通用運算平台，例如 GPU，因為 GPU 並非專為優化神經網路訓練而設計——像素交易平台並非直接用於優化神經網路訓練。它們只是在大多數情況下比 CPU 效能更好。因此，我們應該將 Dojo 視為專為神經網路訓練（尤其是影片或類似影片的內容）而優化的巨型 ASIC。但正如我所說，我們並不能保證 Dojo 一定會成功。我們認為它會成功。我們鼓勵那些對此問題感興趣的人加入特斯拉。

And the first use of Tesla Bot, whether it's in the factory or elsewhere.

特斯拉機器人首次投入使用，無論是在工廠還是其他地方。

Yes. The first use of the Tesla Bot, Optimus. The Optimus name seems to be sticking, at least internally, Optimus Subprime. Like if we can't find a use for it, then we shouldn't expect that others would. So the first use of the Optimus robot would be at Tesla, kind of like moving parts around the factory or something like that.

是的。特斯拉機器人Optimus的首次應用。 Optimus這個名字似乎已經定型了，至少在內部是這樣，Optimus Subprime。就好像如果我們自己都找不到它的用途，就不該期待別人能找到。所以Optimus機器人的首次應用應該是在特斯拉，像是在工廠搬運零件之類的。

Okay. Thank you very much. And the next question on insurance, when do you plan on having your insurance services rolled out in all the states? International rollout timing in markets that have Tesla Insurance, what kind of uptake rates are you seeing?

好的，非常感謝。下一個問題是關於保險的，你們計劃何時在所有州推出保險服務？在已經推出特斯拉保險的市場，你們的國際推廣計畫何時啟動？目前的市場接受率如何？

Yes. We currently offer Tesla Insurance in 5 states in the U.S. Four of them are telematics, which is Texas, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona. And then California, which has a more standard insurance offering based upon regulations there.

是的。我們目前在美國五個州提供特斯拉保險。其中四個州是遠端資訊處理州，分別是德州、伊利諾州、俄亥俄州和亞利桑那州。加州則根據當地法規提供更標準的保險服務。

It should be clear, like we are pushing very hard for California to change the rules to allow informatics, which basically means that you're as safe as you're driving is measured. So I think the current California rules are contrary to the best interest of the consumers in California and should be changed.

很明顯，我們正在大力推動加州修改規則，允許使用資訊技術，這基本上意味著你的駕駛安全取決於你的駕駛技術。所以我認為加州現行的規則違反了加州消費者的最佳利益，應該修改。

Yes. And that's evidenced by what we're seeing in Texas. We've been in this market now for about 3 months. And what we see in the data is the frequency of collision by folks who are given a feedback loop on how they are driving is quite a bit lower than the frequency of collision in otherwise.

是的。我們在德州看到的情況證明了這一點。我們進入這個市場已經大約三個月了。數據顯示，那些能夠獲得駕駛回饋的駕駛者，其碰撞事故發生率遠低於其他駕駛者。

Yes. And we can do a direct feedback on whether driving is safe. And if they drive safer, their insurance cost less, so they drive safer. Tesla Insurance with informatics and real-time feedback encourages safer driving and rewards it monetarily. It's great.

是的。我們可以直接回饋駕駛是否安全。如果他們駕駛更安全，保險費用就會降低，所以他們會更安全駕駛。特斯拉保險結合資訊科技和即時回饋，鼓勵安全駕駛，並提供經濟獎勵。這很棒。

Exactly. And so we see that so far in Texas. Take rates have been quite strong. We measure this on the conversion rate from when folks quote to see what their monthly rate would be at the starting point to what percentage of them purchase. So we're very encouraged by the interest that we're seeing in Texas. And then we have enough history in Texas to see what does the loss ratios look like and how do the economics of the program work. And we're on the right track there as well. So we're comfortable with what we've seen in Texas to move as quickly as we can to scale this across the U.S.

沒錯。我們在德克薩斯州也看到了這一點。目前的轉換率相當高。我們透過轉換率來衡量轉換率，也就是從客戶最初諮詢月費到最終購買的轉換率。因此，我們對在德州看到的市場反應感到非常鼓舞。我們在德州累積了足夠的歷史數據，可以了解損失率以及該專案的經濟效益。這方面我們也進展順利。因此，我們對在德克薩斯州的成果感到滿意，並計劃盡快將該計畫推廣到全美各地。

Specifically on the question about when we will be in all states, this is a slow process because of insurance being regulated at the state level. And so we have to go through each of those processes with each of the departments of insurance in each state. But our internal goal here by the end of the year is to be in enough locations that 80% of our customers within the U.S. could choose to sign up for Tesla Insurance if they wanted to. There's a lot of uncertainty around that based upon the regulatory processes, but that's our goal. And then as we make more progress rolling out in the states and each incremental state becomes a little bit less effort than the prior, that's when we'll turn our attention to the Europe market. We might be able to do that by the end of the year, starting to get work on Europe by the end of the year. We'll have to see how we progress in the U.S.

關於何時涵蓋所有州的問題，由於保險監管由各州自行負責，這是一個緩慢的過程。因此，我們需要與每個州的保險部門逐一完成相關流程。但我們內部的目標是，到今年年底，涵蓋足夠多的地區，使美國境內 80% 的客戶可以選擇購買特斯拉保險。鑑於監管流程的複雜性，這其中存在著許多不確定性，但這仍然是我們的目標。隨著我們在美國各州的推廣工作不斷推進，每個州的推進難度都會逐漸降低，屆時我們將把目光轉向歐洲市場。我們或許能在年底前開始進軍歐洲市場。具體情況也要取決於我們在美國市場的進展。

Thank you. Next question is, what is your expected max capacity from each of your current factories: Fremont, Shanghai, Berlin and Austin and timing for new factory announcements?

謝謝。下一個問題是，您目前位於弗里蒙特、上海、柏林和奧斯汀的各家工廠的預期最大產能是多少？新工廠的公告預計何時發布？

I don't think we want to comment on -- it's always possible to increase the output of any given factory. So to say what's the next capacity, well, it's difficult to say what that next capacity is because you put a lot of evidence that you increase capacity quite a lot. Look at the big picture. Initially, we always want to increase capacity at one factory because logistics cost of transporting cars needs to be considered. Especially, as the cars become more affordable, you want to have factories that are not like thousands of miles away from the customers. So even if you could increase output, it may not actually be the smart thing to do.

我認為我們不應該對此發表評論——任何一家工廠的產量都有可能提高。所以，要說下一個產能目標是多少，其實很難說，因為有許多證據顯示產能可以大幅提升。要從全局來看。最初，我們總是希望提高一家工廠的產能，因為汽車運輸​​的物流成本需要考慮。尤其是在汽車價格越來越親民的情況下，我們希望工廠離客戶不要那麼遠。所以，即使產能可以提高，這樣做也未必是明智之舉。

So in the U.S. with, for example, with Giga Texas coming up, we would want to deliver, say, Model Ys that are going to the eastern 2/3 of the United States from this factory because the logistics costs are going to be much less. But we will continue to increase output in Fremont and at Giga Nevada and at Shanghai. And as I said at the beginning of the call, 2022 is the year we will be looking at factory locations to see what makes the most sense, possibly with some announcement by the end of this year, yes.

例如，在美國，隨著德州超級工廠的投產，我們希望從該工廠向美國東部三分之二的地區交付Model Y車型，因為物流成本會低得多。但我們將繼續提高弗里蒙特工廠、內華達超級工廠和上海工廠的產量。正如我在電話會議開始時所說，2022年我們將重新評估工廠選址，以確定最合適的方案，可能會在今年年底前公佈一些消息。

Thank you. And the next question is, what are the biggest obstacles for Cybertruck volume production besides battery shortage?

謝謝。下一個問題是，除了電池短缺之外，Cyber​​truck量產面臨的最大障礙是什麼？

Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production. There's a lot of new technology in the Cybertruck that will take some time to work through. And then there's a question of like what's the average cost of Cybertruck and to what degree is that affordable. You can make something infinitely desirable. But if it's not affordable, that will constrain people's ability to buy it because they don't have the money. I worry more about like how do we make the Cybertruck affordable despite having awesome technology. That's the thing that will really set the rate. Aspirationally, in terms of just a rough order of magnitude, we'd like Cybertruck to be at least on the order of 0.25 million vehicles a year. But it will take us a moment to get to that level.

電池可能不會成為Cyber​​truck產量的限制因素。 Cyber​​truck包含許多新技術，需要一些時間才能完善。此外，Cyber​​truck的平均成本是多少，以及它的可負擔程度如何，也是一個需要考慮的問題。你可以打造一款極具吸引力的產品，但如果價格過高，人們就無法負擔。我更擔心的是，如何在擁有如此先進技術的情況下，讓Cyber​​truck的價格保持在可負擔的範圍內。這才是真正決定產量的關鍵。就產量而言，我們希望Cyber​​truck的年產量至少達到25萬輛左右。但要達到這個目標，還需要一段時間。

Thank you. The next question is, how much of Tesla's margin improvement is from, number one, economies of scale; number two, production line design efficiencies; number three, reduced transportation costs from multiple plant locations; and number four, pricing versus cost inflation; or number five, other sources? And how much further could margins improve and why?

謝謝。下一個問題是，特斯拉利潤率的提升有多少來自以下幾個面向：第一，規模經濟；第二，生產線設計效率；第三，多廠址帶來的運輸成本降低；第四，定價與成本通膨的平衡；第五，其他因素？利潤率還能提升多少？原因是什麼？

Yes. There's basically 4 major factors if we look over the last year to the margin improvement within the company. And they're in no particular order here, but these are the big ones. So our mix of Model Y is increasing as we've ramped that to higher capacity in Fremont and also in Shanghai. And the reason that matters is the Model Y is a vehicle that carries a higher profit than the Model 3. And so that is helpful on our margins. And then as we increase the volume on that program with labor efficiencies, fixed cost amortization, they improve and the costs go down as well.

是的。如果我們回顧過去一年公司利潤率的提升，主要有四個因素。以下排名不分先後，但這些都是最重要的因素。首先，隨著我們在弗里蒙特和上海工廠提高Model Y的產能，Model Y的銷售比例正在增加。這一點至關重要，因為Model Y的利潤率高於Model 3。因此，這有助於提升我們的利潤率。其次，隨著Model Y產量的增加，勞動效率提高，固定成本攤銷也隨之改善，成本也隨之下降。

The second 1 here is localization in Shanghai has been a huge help for margins for the company. And the obvious things around logistics and duties is a big part of it. That factory had a different line design, more efficient from the start, and we've been pushing the boundaries on the volume there. So that has been helpful. If you recall, at the beginning of the year, we also were in a transition to the new version of the Model S and Model X. And so as that has ramped over the course of the year, that has been helpful. And then we've also done various price increases in certain markets on certain models, which has helped there. So that's generally the story at a high level.

第二個因素是上海工廠的在地化生產對公司利潤率的提升起了巨大的作用。物流和關稅的因素顯而易見，也是重要原因。上海工廠的生產線設計與其它工廠不同，從一開始就更有效率，我們一直在努力提高那裡的產量。所以，本地化生產確實有所幫助。如果你還記得，年初的時候，我們也正處於Model S和Model X新版的過渡期。隨著新版本銷量在年內逐步提升，這也起到了積極作用。此外，我們也在某些市場對部分車款進行了漲價，這也有助於利潤成長。以上就是整體情況。

As we look over the next quarter or 2, as I mentioned in my opening remarks and the last call as well, we have ramp inefficiencies from the launch of Austin and Berlin. We also have pressures coming from inflation, supply chain, raw materials, et cetera. And so where that nets out is hard to say in the immediate term. And we obviously, as a company, are going to be driving to increase margins as much as we can. But I just want to be realistic that we're launching 2 factories simultaneously here and it unavoidably will add cost to the business as we do that.

展望未來一兩個季度，正如我在開場白和上次電話會議上提到的，奧斯汀和柏林工廠的投產會帶來產能爬坡效率低下的問題。此外，我們也面臨通貨膨脹、供應鏈、原料等方面的壓力。因此，短期內這些因素最終會如何影響公司業績，目前還很難說。當然，作為一家公司，我們會盡一切努力提高利潤率。但我必須承認，我們同時投產兩家工廠，這必然會增加公司的成本。

And as we look further out, and Elon mentioned this in his opening remarks as well, the software portion of the business, I think, is the one to really pay attention to. As full self-driving features get rolled out to more and more folks, I mean for me, personally, I prefer to drive my car with the FSD beta on. And I think as more and more people experience that, take rates there and then as we work towards the robotaxi space, there's actually quite a bit of upside on margins from a software perspective.

展望未來，正如埃隆在開場白中提到的，我認為軟體業務才是真正值得關注的部分。隨著全自動駕駛功能逐步推廣到越來越多的用戶，就我個人而言，我更喜歡開啟FSD測試版來駕駛我的車。我認為，隨著越來越多的人體驗到這項功能，並開始接受相關條款，再加上我們朝著無人駕駛計程車領域邁進，從軟體角度來看，利潤空間實際上相當可觀。

Yes. I think basically everything pales in comparison to the value of robotaxi or full self-driving. I mean that just [tends] overall, in everything. You just go from having an asset that has a utility of perhaps 12 hours a week per passenger car to maybe around 50 or 60 hours a week to a 5x increase in the utility of the asset. The cost didn't change, yes. So that's where just things -- you just have to [focus] your mind.

是的。我覺得基本上所有東西都比不上無人駕​​駛計程車或全自動駕駛的價值。我的意思是，從整體上看，所有方面都是如此。你擁有的資產，原本每輛乘用車每週的利用時間可能只有12小時，現在卻能達到每週50到60小時，利用時間翻了五倍。成本並沒有改變，沒錯。所以，這就是關鍵所在——你只需要集中註意力。

Thank you. And the last question from investors is Elon mentioned Level 4 autonomy could be achieved this year. Is it based off initial FSD beta rollout experience? Or is Level 4 ability predicated on Dojo being complete and online?

謝謝。投資人的最後一個問題是，埃隆提到今年可以實現L4級自動駕駛。這是基於FSD早期測試版的推廣經驗嗎？還是說L4級自動駕駛能力的前提是Dojo系統完全建成上線？

As mentioned earlier, Dojo is not required for full self-driving. It should have a positive effect on the cost of training neural networks. It's not just a question of like do you get to full self-driving but really kind of like the March of Nines of reliability, is it 99.999% reliable or 99.999999% reliable. It gets nutty. Obviously, we want to get to as close to perfection as possible. So frankly, being safe than a human is a low standard, not a high standard. People are very, very lossy, often distracted, tired, texting. Anyway, it's remarkable that we don't have more accidents, yes. So actually being better than a human, I think, is relatively straightforward, frankly, how it'd be 1,000% better or 10,000% better. Yes, that's much, much harder.

如同先前所提到的，Dojo並非實現完全自動駕駛的必要條件。它應該會對神經網路的訓練成本產生正面影響。這不僅是能否實現完全自動駕駛的問題，更像是可靠性的「九進制」競賽，是99.999%的可靠性，還是99.999999%的可靠性？這有點複雜。顯然，我們希望盡可能接近完美。坦白說，比人類更安全只是一個較低的標準，而不是較高的標準。人類非常容易出現各種失誤，經常分心、疲憊、發短訊。總之，我們目前沒有發生更多事故，這本身就很了不起。所以，我認為，真正比人類更優秀相對來說比較簡單，例如如何才能比人類優秀1000%或10000%。當然，後者要難得多。

But I think anyone who's been in the FSD beta program, I mean, if they were just to plot the progress of the beta interventions per mile, it's obviously trending to a very small number of interventions per mile and the pace of improvement is fast. And there are several profound improvements to the FSD stack that are coming in the next few months. Yes, I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than a human this year. I would be shocked.

但我認為，任何參與過FSD測試版計畫的人，如果僅僅繪製每英里幹預次數的進度圖，就會發現幹預次數正朝著每英里極少的方向發展，而且改進速度非常快。未來幾個月，FSD技術棧也將迎來幾項意義重大的改進。是的，如果今年我們沒能實現比人類駕駛更安全的完全自動駕駛，我會感到非常震驚。真的會非常震驚。

Thank you. Let's go to analyst questions now. And the first question comes from Jed from Canaccord.

謝謝。現在進入分析師提問環節。第一個問題來自Canaccord的Jed。

Congratulations on a great year. Elon, I guess my question is around the Megapack or your energy business. And so as we look at the strategy or the supply chain constraints that you mentioned, you have 2 different strategies, or it seems like, with Megapack and Powerwall. And I think the Powerwall was answered with 4680 and the 2170 opening up. So I was wondering if you could just talk about the supply chain and LFP for the Megapack and what we should expect for that.

恭喜你度過了精彩的一年。埃隆，我想問的是關於Megapack或是你的能源業務的問題。如你所提到的，你似乎針對Megapack和Powerwall制定了兩種不同的策略，包括供應鏈方面的限制。我認為Powerwall的問題已經透過4680和2170的推出得到了解決。所以我想請你談談Megapack的供應鏈和磷酸鐵鋰電池（LFP）的情況，以及我們應該對此抱持怎樣的預期。

Yes. To be clear, we do think that old stationary storage, Powerwall and Megapack, will transition to an iron-based system, basically a non-nickel system. Manganese also could be part of the future, but primarily iron. It just comes up, iron-nickel. We need something that is formed in a star before a supernova ideally. So iron is. So there's a ridiculous amount of iron on Earth as is a ridiculous amount of lithium. So you can really expect all stationary storage to transition to iron over time. And manganese is like a wildcard. There's also less manganese. Anyway, I should say like we did short-change the energy business last year in that vehicle took priority over the energy side not on cells but on chips. So yes, we do see a very long-term probably terawatt-hour per year energy business. So a lot, it's pretty vast. Yes.

是的。說清楚點，我們認為傳統的固定式儲能設備，例如 Powerwall 和 Megapack，最終會過渡到鐵基系統，基本上就是非鎳系統。錳也可能成為未來的一部分，但主要還是鐵。鐵鎳合金總是被提及。理想情況下，我們需要一種在超新星爆發前恆星內部形成的物質。鐵符合這個條件。地球上的鐵和鋰儲量都非常驚人。所以，你可以預期所有固定式儲能設備最終都會過渡到鐵基系統。而錳則像個未知數。錳的儲量也比較少。總之，我應該說，去年我們在能源業務方面投入不足，因為那款車優先考慮的是電池，而不是晶片。所以，是的，我們確實看到了一個非常長期的能源業務，規模可能達到每年太瓦時等級。所以，這個市場非常龐大。是的。

That's helpful. So you see that '22 is kind of the opening of the energy business reaccelerating.

這很有幫助。所以你看，2022年標誌著能源產業重新加速復甦的開始。

It's hard to predict 2022 because there are still lingering supply chain issues globally. But I think the chip stuff, at least the chip side of things, appears to looks like it will alleviate end of this year or '23. I mean there's a crazy number of chip fabs being built, which is great. The sheer number of chip fabs being built right now is exciting to see, yes. But there could be other issues. We're trying to anticipate those as much as possible, but predicting the future is difficult.

很難預測2022年的情況，因為全球供應鏈仍有一些問題。但我認為晶片領域，至少在晶片方面，似乎會在今年年底或2023年有所緩解。我的意思是，現在正在興建的晶片工廠數量驚人，這當然是好事。看到這麼多晶片工廠正在建設，確實令人興奮。但也可能有其他問題。我們正在盡力預測這些問題，但預測未來並非易事。

And the goal is definitely to grow this year.

今年的目標肯定是實現成長。

Yes, it will grow this year, for sure. It's just, if we simply were able to respond to demand, it might grow by like 200% or 300% or something as opposed to sort of 50% or so.

是的，今年肯定會成長。只是，如果我們能夠滿足市場需求，成長幅度可能會達到200%或300%，而不是現在的50%左右。

Yes. I mean I think it's exactly that. I mean it's a question of does it double, triple, quadruple? I mean either way, I think our plans are pretty ambitious for Megapack this year and storage in general. The exact amount of growth is hard to know. But ultimately, I mean to Elon's point about the growth of this business, I mean we need to be growing it faster than the vehicle business.

是的。我的意思是，我認為正是如此。問題在於它會翻倍、兩番還是三番？無論如何，我認為我們今年對Megapack以及整個儲存業務的計劃都相當雄心勃勃。具體的成長幅度很難預測。但歸根結底，就像伊隆所提到的，我們需要讓這項業務的成長速度超過汽車業務。

And it will actually grow faster than the vehicle business once we can leash the damn chip constraint, frankly. So it will grow like [kelp on shores] basically. It needs to. Our primary mission is to accelerate sustainable energy. That's always been our primary mission, and we're trying to stay true to that.

坦白說，一旦我們能突破晶片瓶頸，它的成長速度實際上會超過汽車業務。所以它基本上會像海藻一樣瘋長。它必須如此。我們的首要任務是加速永續能源的發展。這始終是我們的首要任務，我們也正努力堅守這項使命。

The next question comes from Ben Kallo from Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Ben Kallo。

I was wondering on the R&D front because, like you said, you have so many fish frying. How do you organize the R&D efforts so that you can start talking about all these new products? Is there like an incubator or some type of thing like that? But just structurally, I'm curious about that.

我想了解研發方面的情況，因為正如你所說，你們有很多專案同時進行。你們是如何組織研發工作的，才能開始討論所有這些新產品呢？你們有類似孵化器之類的機構嗎？我只是對這方面的組織架構比較有興趣。

Well, we don't have incubators.

我們沒有孵化器。

Or research centers.

或研究中心。

We don't have research centers.

我們沒有研究中心。

We work on things that go into our products.

我們致力於研發產品所需的各種零件。

Yes, we're like this is a useful product that the world really needs. And we're just like let's make this thing, design it up and iterate fast and then figure out how to make this at scale at a reasonable price. That last part is the super hard part. Many times, we've said prototypes are easy, but production is hard. If we could work on that as only prototypes, what's the point of that? Like you actually have to reach scale production and have cash and exceed cash out. That's the super hard part.

是的，我們覺得這是一款世界真正需要的實用產品。所以我們就想，那就趕緊把它做出來，設計出來，快速迭代，然後想辦法以合理的價格大規模生產。最後一步才是最難的。我們常說，原型很容易，但量產很難。如果我們只做原型，那還有什麼意義呢？你必須真正實現規模化生產，獲得資金，而且還要獲利。這才是最難的部分。

So everybody needs to be in the factory often enough to be able to understand that last part of the equation. And if you're in the research center...

所以每個人都需要經常去工廠，才能理解等式的最後一部分。如果你在研發中心…

Yes. Doing them separately is like [initiation] for actually making products. So we don't think of it as R&D, like the product development is just one (expletive) aspect. One needs to just make great products.

是的。把它們分開做就像是正式生產產品的[入門]。所以我們不把它看作研發，好像產品開發只是其中一個（髒話）環節。關鍵是要做出優秀的產品。

So just in general, societally, there's way too much value placed on the idea. It's like you have the idea of going to the moon. That's not the hard part, okay? Going to the moon is the hard part by far. And the thing is that, that is true for really most products. So there's just way too much value placed in the idea versus execution. And we have ideas. We have gazillion ideas so many ideas we don't know what to do with. Let's just sort through them and say which ones are we actually going to go through the [lost frontiers] of bringing them to volume production. And then to actually do that, that's tough.

所以總的來說，從社會層面來說，人們對創意的重視程度過高了。這就好比你有了登月的想法。這本身並不難，好嗎？登月才是真正的困難。事實上，這種情況幾乎適用於所有產品。人們對創意的重視程度遠遠超過了執行力。我們有很多創意，多到數不清，我們都不知道該如何處理。我們不妨篩選一下，看看哪些創意值得我們去探索，最終實現量產。而真正做到這一點，卻難上加難。

And the closer you are at applying blood, sweat and tears to actual production, the faster you'll be able to bring these things into actual production.

你越是將心血和汗水投入到實際生產中，你就能越快地將這些東西投入到實際生產中。

Yes, exactly. You want a tight feedback loop production. Just like the office we're sitting in right now looks over the Giga Texas production line. Like the offices are integrated into the factory.

沒錯，正是如此。你需要一個緊密回饋的生產流程。就像我們現在坐的這間辦公室，可以俯瞰德州儀器的巨型生產線一樣。辦公室就像是工廠的一部分。

Thank you very much. The next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi from Bernstein.

非常感謝。下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦公司的托尼·薩科納吉。

I have 2, please. First, you spoke a lot about FSD and how the economics could be very attractive going forward. I'm wondering if you could just share what your current attach rate might be for FSD on your vehicles or how to think about the progress of your attach rate or revenue in FSD, let's say, in '21 versus '20 and how much deferred revenue for FSD was drawn down during the year. And I have a follow-up, please.

我有兩個問題。首先，您之前多次提到FSD（完全自動駕駛）以及它在未來經濟效益方面的巨大潛力。我想請您分享一下目前您車輛上FSD的加裝率，或者您如何看待FSD加裝率或收入的增長情況，例如2021年與2020年相比，以及2021年FSD的遞延收入有多少被提取。另外，我還有一個後續問題。

I think the FSD stuff, you really don't want to be looking at the rearview mirror. It will not be a good indicator for the future. What you need is to look out at the front windscreen because it is such a profound step change. I mean effectively, long term, every car will have FSD. And the value of that will be a very big number. Just look at this as asset utilization, you have a passenger car, which normally is driven maybe 1.5 hours a day on average, maybe 10, 12 hours a week, a lot of cars in the parking lots, so you're spending money not just driving the cars but storing them all over the place. We can get rid of a lot of parking lots if you have a car that is operating all the time.

我認為對於FSD（全自動駕駛）技術，你真的不應該只專注於後視鏡。它並不能很好地預示未來。你需要關注的是前方，因為這將帶來翻天覆地的改變。我的意思是，從長遠來看，實際上每輛車都會配備FSD。而它的價值將非常巨大。不妨從資產利用率的角度來看這個問題。假設一輛乘用車平均每天行駛1.5小時，每週行駛10到12小時，那麼停車場就會停滿很多車。所以，你不僅要花錢駕駛這些車輛，還要花錢停放它們。如果有一種車可以一直運行，我們就可以省去很多停車場。

But there will be a challenge with traffic. So we have like this little tiny baby company, The Boring Company, which I initially started as a joke. And now I think it actually could be quite essential to alleviating the insane traffic that will happen when cars are autonomous because you reduce the pain of travel and you reduce the cost of travel so dramatically that there will be a crazy number of cars on the road. I mean I think it will be cheaper to go point to point with a robotaxi, which is an autonomous Tesla, which every car we've made in the past 3 or 4 years will be capable of that, than a bus or a subway. It will cost less than the subsidized value of a bus ticket. So if you want to get -- cool, I'm not going to take the bus.

但交通問題會是個挑戰。所以我們成立了一家小小的公司——無聊公司（The Boring Company），最初只是我開玩笑創辦的。現在我覺得它對緩解自動駕駛汽車普及後可能出現的瘋狂交通擁堵至關重要，因為它能大幅降低出行的痛苦和成本，以至於路上的汽車數量會激增。我的意思是，我覺得搭乘自動駕駛計程車（也就是特斯拉的自動駕駛汽車，我們過去三、四年生產的每一輛車都具備這種能力）點對點出行會比搭乘公車或地鐵更便宜。它的成本甚至低於公車票的補貼價格。所以如果你想去——好吧，我可不想坐公車。

If it costs you, I don't know, for argument's sake, $2 to travel 10 miles point to point, nobody is taking the bus, especially in cold weather or it's dark or maybe a little bit dangerous, to hell with that. People just do not understand how profound a change this is. It's not like some little feature. It's like the most profound software upgrade maybe in history. Millions of cars suddenly have, what, 4 or 5x utility overnight. I don't actually know how to quantify that financially except that it's some big number.

如果搭公車單程10英哩要花你2美元，那誰還會坐呢？尤其是在寒冷的天氣、漆黑的夜晚，或是路況有點危險的時候，簡直是天方夜譚。人們根本不明白這其中的差異有多巨大。這可不是什麼小功能，而是史上最重大的軟體升級。一夕之間，數百萬輛汽車的效用提升了四、五倍。我不知道該如何用金錢來量化這其中的差別，總之肯定是個天文數字。

Okay. Elon, I was wondering if I could just follow up and ask you, you talked about your product road map and also your goal to keep growing at 50% per year or better. That would put you at 3.2 million vehicles or more in 2024. And I think you made reference to Cybertruck maybe being 250,000 vehicles. If there is no $25,000 vehicle being worked on, is it really realistic to think that you can sell more than 3 million vehicles with 2 very high-volume cars and Cybertruck in 2024? How do we think about that? Or what else is missing in that equation?

好的。伊隆，我想問你一個後續問題。你談到了你的產品路線圖，以及你希望維持每年50%或更高的成長率。這意味著到2024年，你的銷量將達到320萬輛或更多。我記得你提到Cyber​​truck的銷量可能達到25萬輛。如果沒有在研發售價2.5萬美元的車型，那麼指望在2024年僅憑兩款銷量極高的車型加上Cyber​​truck就能實現300萬輛以上的銷量目標真的現實嗎？我們該如何看待這個問題？或者說，這個等式中還缺少什麼？

Yes. I mean it's apparent from the questions that the gravity of full self-driving is not fully appreciated. If an asset has 5x more utilization, in fact, it's like dividing the cost of that asset by 5. So if you have a $50,000 car, it's like having a $10,000 car all of a sudden. But maybe better than that, because still you may want to drive, so the person can be engaged in productivity or amusement instead of having to onerously drive through traffic. So it's probably better than 5x. I don't know. Yes. I mean basically, if the cost of our cars do not change at all, we would still sell as many as we could possibly make.

是的。我的意思是，從這些問題來看，很明顯大家還沒有充分意識到完全自動駕駛的重要性。如果一項資產的利用率提高5倍，實際上就等於把這項資產的成本除以5。所以，如果你有一輛價值5萬美元的車，那就相當於突然擁有了一輛價值1萬美元的車。但也許效果會更好，因為你仍然可能想開車，所以人們可以把時間花在工作或娛樂上，而不是費力地在擁擠的交通中穿梭。所以，效果可能不只5倍。我不知道。是的。我的意思是，基本上，即使我們汽車的成本完全不變，我們仍然會盡可能地賣出汽車。

Thank you. And the next question comes from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.

謝謝。下一個問題來自新街研究公司的皮埃爾·費拉古。

Can you hear me well?

你聽得清楚我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I wanted to come back on battery. So it's great to hear, on one hand, that you guys expect to sell like the first car with 4680 this quarter and, at the same time, that you don't really depend on that ramp what you hope to achieve in terms of significant volume growth this year. And the question I had is, I understand well the ramp of 4680 internally, but I'd be curious to hear you talk about how you think about 4680 as being a form factor that your suppliers could adopt as well and how you see, in the long run, in the greater scheme of things, what does 4680 become. Is it going to be, outside of Tesla, the largest form factor for batteries? Is it something that you guys are going to deploy in all cars, whatever the chemistry, also in the Megapack, in all your energy storage business? And do you expect eventually a lot of other companies to use that form factor as well?

我想回到電池的話題。一方面，很高興聽到你們預計本季就能售出首批搭載4,680電池的車型，另一方面，你們也表示今年的銷售成長目標並非完全依賴此次量產。我的問題是，我了解你們內部對4680電池量產的規劃，但我很想聽聽你們如何看待4680這種電池規格，以及你們的供應商未來可能採用這種規格。從長遠來看，在更廣闊的背景下，4680電池最終會發展成什麼樣子？它會成為特斯拉以外最大的電池規格嗎？你們會將其應用於所有車型（無論採用何種電池化學成分）、Megapack以及所有儲能業務嗎？你們是否預期最終會有更多其他公司採用這種規格？

Yes. On the 4680 as a form factor, yes, we've engaged with a number of our partners, our suppliers, on the form factor. And they're all working on it. And they look at it the way we look at it as a way to drive fundamental cost efficiencies in production and also, ultimately, the design of the cell itself to drive the cost down of the cell. I mean we're engaged because we think it's a good form factor. They're engaged because they think it's a good form factor. And we want people to make it for sure. To the question about should everything be 4680, it doesn't have to be. In the end, it's about cost competitiveness, scalability of manufacturing. And when you compare like an iron cell with a nickel cell, for example, like there are some just physics-based differences in what happens in certain corner cases that would drive different form factors, and we just have to be cognizant of that and design to that. So it isn't like the ultimate form factor for all things. There's other form factors that could be better for an iron cell, for example.

是的。關於4680這種外形尺寸，我們已經和許多合作夥伴及供應商就此進行了探討。他們都在為此努力。他們和我們一樣，認為這種外形尺寸能夠從根本上提高生產成本效益，並最終透過優化電池本身的設計來降低成本。我們參與其中是因為我們認為這是一個不錯的外形尺寸。他們參與其中也是因為他們認為這是一個不錯的外形尺寸。我們當然希望大家都能採用這種外型尺寸。至於是否所有產品都應該採用4680，答案是否定的。歸根結底，這取決於成本競爭力以及生產的可擴展性。例如，當你比較鐵芯電池和鎳芯電池時，你會發現它們在某些特殊情況下存在一些基於物理原理的差異，這些差異會導致不同的外形尺寸，我們必須意識到這一點並據此進行設計。所以，它並不是適用於所有產品的最終外形尺寸。例如，還有其他外形尺寸可能更適合鐵電池。

We don't use 4680 at all for the iron-based cells.

我們根本不在鐵基電池中使用 4680。

Okay. And I have a quick follow-up on chips. So you've talked a lot about all this shortage and the supply difficulties. And I was wondering if you could give us some color on like the power chips you need for investors and all the power systems you're putting together versus like the more traditional logic chips, if the situation is different between the 2. And should we understand from the situation today that you're working very hard also at expanding the scope of your suppliers? And should we expect like Tesla to take onboard additional suppliers in the near term, especially on the power side?

好的。我還有一個關於晶片的後續問題。您之前多次談到晶片短缺和供應困難的問題。我想請您詳細介紹一下，對於投資者和您正在建造的電力系統而言，所需的電力晶片與更傳統的邏輯晶片相比，情況是否有所不同？從目前的情況來看，我們是否可以理解為您正在努力擴大供應商範圍？我們是否可以預期特斯拉會在近期內引進更多供應商，尤其是在電力晶片方面？

Well, last year was chip hell of many chips, so silicon carbide competitors, or certainly one of them, but...

去年晶片市場一片混亂，各種晶片層出不窮，碳化矽晶片的競爭對手，或者說其中一家，都受到了衝擊，但是…

Honestly, there's a lot of annoying, very boring parts.

說實話，有很多令人惱火、非常無聊的部分。

Yes. It's a ton of very simple control chips, that run-of-the-mill literally kind. Yes, basic chips to control...

是的。就是一堆非常簡單的控制晶片，那種很普通的、毫不起眼的晶片。沒錯，就是一些基本的控制晶片…

Also just reference oscillators, those are very boring things.

還有參考振盪器，那些東西非常無聊。

Yes, exactly. Like that little chip that allows you to move your seat back and forth, that actually was a big problem. But a lot of these things are alleviating. I think there's some degree of the toilet paper problem as well where there was a toilet paper shortage during COVID. Obviously, it wasn't really certainly a tremendous enhanced need for ass wiping. It's just people panicked and got every paper product you could possibly wipe your ass with basically. And I wasn't sure, is this like a real thing or not? I actually took my kids to the H-E-B and Walmart in Texas to just confirm if it was real. Indeed, it was. And there's plenty of food and everything else but just nothing, no paper products. That didn't cause us [plenty].

沒錯，就是這樣。就像那個可以前後移動座椅的小晶片，那確實是個大問題。不過很多問題都在緩解。我覺得衛生紙短缺也算是個問題，新冠疫情期間確實出現過。當然，這並不是說人們對擦屁股的需求真​​的大幅增加。只是大家恐慌了，基本上把所有能擦屁股的紙製品都搶購一空。我當時還不確定這到底是不是真的。我還特地帶孩子去了德州的H-E-B和沃爾瑪，想確認一下是不是真的。結果還真是。食物和其他東西都很充足，就是什麼都沒有，紙製品全沒了。不過這並沒有對我們造成什麼影響。

An odd choice for people to panic about, yes, because these things are -- actually, if end of the world is coming, I think toilet paper is the least of your problems. So I think we saw just a lot of companies over-order chips and then buffer the chips. And so we should see, and we are seeing, alleviation in almost every area. But the output of the vehicle goes with the least lucky. What are the most problematic items in an entire car? There seems like at least 10,000 unique parts in the car, way more than that if you go further up the supply chain. And so which one is going to be the least lucky one this time? It's hard to say.

沒錯，人們恐慌的原因確實有點奇怪，因為這些東西——實際上，如果世界末日真的來臨，我想衛生紙應該是你最不擔心的問題。所以我認為我們看到很多公司都超額訂購了晶片，然後儲備了一些。因此，我們應該看到，而且也確實看到了，幾乎所有領域的供應都在緩解。但汽車的產量卻取決於最不可靠的零件。一輛汽車裡最容易出問題的零件是什麼？汽車裡至少有1萬個不同的零件，如果追溯到供應鏈的上游，數量還會更多。那麼，這次哪個部件會最不可靠呢？很難說。

Yes. I mean on a go-forward basis, right, the idea is to continue to drive simplification. So there are fewer unique parts, fewer of them. On the power side, in particular, it's still like an area of technological development where the next chip can do the same thing with less [diarrhea]. So like the total fab required to accomplish the function goes down. So there's still room to grow without needing more fab capacity. But in general, there's a lot more fab capacity coming. So that's like a win-win there.

是的。我的意思是，從長遠來看，我們的理念是繼續簡化。這樣一來，獨特的部件數量就會減少。尤其是在功耗方面，這仍然是一個技術發展領域，下一代晶片可以用更少的資源完成同樣的功能。因此，實現此功能所需的晶圓廠總產能就會下降。所以，在不需要更多晶圓廠產能的情況下，仍有成長空間。但總的來說，晶圓廠產能將會大幅增加。所以，這算是雙贏的局面。

Yes. It's not a long-term thing because there's a crazy amount of chip fabs being built, which is great.

是的。這不是長期現象，因為現在正在興建大量的晶片製造廠，這很好。

Well, thank you very much. Unfortunately, that is all the time we have for this session. Thanks very much for all your good questions, and we'll speak to you again in 3 months' time. Have a good day. Bye-bye.

非常感謝。很遺憾，本次會議時間到此結束。感謝大家提出的所有好問題，我們三個月後再見。祝您今天愉快。再見。

Thanks.

謝謝。