特斯拉 (TSLA) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Fourth Quarter 2021 Q&A Webcast. My name is Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives. Our Q4 results were announced at about 3:00 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

大家下午好，歡迎收聽特斯拉 2021 年第四季度網絡直播。我的名字是投資者關係高級總監 Martin Viecha，今天加入我的還有 Elon Musk、Zachary Kirkhorn 和其他一些高管。我們的第四季度業績在下午 3:00 左右公佈。我們在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上發布的更新平台中的中央時間。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions)

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。 （操作員說明）

But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

但在我們進入問答環節之前，埃隆有一些開場白。埃隆?

Thanks, Martin. So just to recap 2021, it was a breakthrough year for Tesla and for electric vehicles in general. And while we battled, and everyone did, with supply chain challenges through the year, we managed to grow our volumes by nearly 90% last year. This level of growth didn't happen by coincidence. It was a result of ingenuity and hard work across multiple teams throughout the company.

謝謝，馬丁。因此，回顧 2021 年，對於特斯拉和整個電動汽車來說，這是一個突破性的一年。雖然我們在一年中都在與供應鏈挑戰作鬥爭，而且每個人都在努力，但去年我們設法將我們的銷量增長了近 90%。這種增長水平並非巧合。這是整個公司多個團隊的獨創性和辛勤工作的結果。

Additionally, we reached the highest operating margin in the industry in the last widely reported quarter at over 14% GAAP operating margin. Lastly, thanks to $5.5 billion of GAAP net income in 2021, our accumulated profitability since the inception of the company became positive, which I think makes us a real company at this point. This is a critical milestone for the company.

此外，我們在上一個廣泛報導的季度達到了業內最高的營業利潤率，達到了 14% 以上的 GAAP 營業利潤率。最後，由於 2021 年 55 億美元的 GAAP 淨收入，我們自公司成立以來的累計盈利能力變為正數，我認為這使我們成為一家真正的公司。這對公司來說是一個重要的里程碑。

So after an exceptional year, we shift our focus to the future, Texas and Berlin. So we've begun production at both Texas and Berlin. We started that last quarter. But that's not the most important thing. We focus more on when do we get to volume production and when can we deliver cars to customers. But I think it is worth noting that, and as the Internet has observed, we've been making quite a few cars in Austin and Berlin.

因此，在經歷了非凡的一年之後，我們將注意力轉移到了未來，德克薩斯和柏林。所以我們已經開始在德克薩斯州和柏林進行生產。我們從上個季度開始。但這還不是最重要的。我們更關注什麼時候可以量產，什麼時候可以向客戶交付汽車。但我認為值得注意的是，正如互聯網所觀察到的那樣，我們已經在奧斯汀和柏林製造了不少汽車。

So in Texas, we're building the Model Ys with the structural battery pack and the 4680 cells, and we will start delivering after final certification of vehicle, which should be fairly soon. Capacity expansion will continue through maximizing output of each factory and building new factories in new locations in the future. Although we're not ready to announce any new locations on this call, but we will, through 2022, look at new locations and probably be able to announce new locations towards the end of this year, I expect.

因此，在德克薩斯州，我們正在製造帶有結構電池組和 4680 電池的 Model Y，我們將在車輛最終認證後開始交付，這應該很快。未來將通過最大限度地提高每個工廠的產量和在新地點建設新工廠來繼續擴大產能。雖然我們還沒有準備好在這次電話會議上宣布任何新地點，但我預計，到 2022 年，我們將尋找新地點，並且可能能夠在今年年底之前宣布新地點。

In 2022, supply chain will continue to be the fundamental limiter of output across all factories. So the chip shortage, while better than last year, is still an issue. And yes, there are multiple supply chain challenges. And last year was difficult to predict and hopefully, this year will be smooth-sailing, but I'm not sure what you do for an encore to 2021, 2020. Nonetheless, we do expect significant growth in 2022 over 2021, comfortably above 50% growth in 2022.

2022年，供應鏈將繼續成為所有工廠產量的根本限制因素。因此，芯片短缺雖然比去年好，但仍然是一個問題。是的，存在多個供應鏈挑戰。去年很難預測，希望今年會一帆風順，但我不確定你為 2021 年和 2020 年的再來一次做了什麼。儘管如此，我們確實預計 2022 年將比 2021 年顯著增長，輕鬆超過 50 2022 年增長率。

Full Self-Driving. So over time, we think Full Self-Driving will become the most important source of profitability for Tesla. I mean actually, if you run the numbers on robotaxis, it's kind of nutty. It's nutty good from a financial standpoint. And I think we're completely confident at this point that it will be achieved. And my personal guess is that we'll achieve Full Self-Driving this year, yes, with data safety level significantly greater than at present. So the cars in the fleet essentially becoming self-driving via a software update, I think, might end up being the biggest increase in asset value of any asset class in history. We shall see. It would also have a profound impact on improving safety and on accelerating the world towards sustainable energy through vastly better asset utilization.

完全自動駕駛。所以隨著時間的推移，我們認為全自動駕駛將成為特斯拉最重要的盈利來源。我的意思是，如果你在自動駕駛出租車上運行這些數字，這有點瘋狂。從財務的角度來看，這真是太好了。我認為我們在這一點上完全有信心實現它。我個人的猜測是，我們今年將實現全自動駕駛，是的，數據安全水平明顯高於目前。因此，我認為，車隊中的汽車基本上通過軟件更新實現了自動駕駛，最終可能成為歷史上任何資產類別中資產價值的最大增幅。我們會看到的。它還將對提高安全性和通過大大提高資產利用率加速世界走向可持續能源產生深遠影響。

Let's see, so on the product road map front, there's quite a lot to talk about. I'm not going to go through every sort of thing that we're working on because I think a lot of them deserve product launches of their own as opposed to a few minutes on an earnings call. So I'll talk kind of mostly at a high level.

讓我們看看，所以在產品路線圖方面，有很多要談的。我不會經歷我們正在做的每件事，因為我認為他們中的很多人都應該推出自己的產品，而不是在財報電話會議上花幾分鐘時間。所以我主要談的是高層次的。

The fundamental focus of Tesla this year is scaling output. So both last year and this year, if we were to introduce new vehicles, our total vehicle output would decrease. This is a very important point that I think a lot of people do not understand. So last year, we spent a lot of engineering and management resources solving supply chain issues: rewriting code, changing our chips, reducing the number of chips we need, with chip drama central. And that was not the only supply chain issue. So there's just hundreds of things. And as a result, we were able to grow almost 90% while at least almost every other manufacturer contracted last year. So that's a good result.

特斯拉今年的基本重點是擴大產量。所以去年和今年，如果我們要推出新車，我們的汽車總產量就會減少。這是很重要的一點，我想很多人不明白。所以去年，我們花費了大量的工程和管理資源來解決供應鏈問題：重寫代碼、更換我們的芯片、減少我們需要的芯片數量，以芯片戲劇為中心。這不是唯一的供應鏈問題。所以只有數百種東西。結果，我們能夠增長近 90%，而至少去年幾乎所有其他製造商都在收縮。所以這是一個很好的結果。

But if we had introduced, say, a new car last year, our total vehicle output would have been the same because of the chips constraints, particularly. So if we'd actually introduced an additional product, that would then require a bunch of attention and resources on that increased complexity of the additional product, resulting in fewer vehicles actually being delivered. And the same is true of this year so we will not be introducing new vehicle models this year. It would not make any sense because we'll still be parts constrained. We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling and whatnot to create those vehicles: Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year. That is most likely. But like I said, it is dependent on are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars.

但如果我們去年推出了一輛新車，我們的汽車總產量將是相同的，尤其是由於芯片限制。因此，如果我們實際上推出了一種附加產品，那麼將需要大量關注和資源來增加附加產品的複雜性，從而導致實際交付的車輛減少。今年也是如此，所以我們今年不會推出新車型。這沒有任何意義，因為我們仍然會受到部分限制。然而，我們將做大量的工程和工具來製造這些車輛：Cybertruck、Semi、Roadster、Optimus，並準備在明年將這些車輛投入生產。這是最有可能的。但就像我說的，這取決於我們能否生產更多或更少的汽車。

So in terms of priority of products, I think actually the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the Optimus humanoid robot. This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time. If you think about the economy, the foundation of the economy is labor. Capital equipment is distilled labor. So what happens if you don't actually have a labor shortage? I'm not sure what an economy even means at that point. That's what Optimus is about. So very important.

所以在產品的優先級上，我認為實際上我們今年做的最重要的產品開發實際上是擎天柱人形機器人。我認為，隨著時間的推移，這有可能比汽車業務更重要。如果你考慮經濟，經濟的基礎是勞動力。資本設備是蒸餾勞動。那麼，如果您實際上沒有勞動力短缺，會發生什麼？我不確定當時的經濟意味著什麼。這就是擎天柱的意義所在。所以非常重要。

Drew, do you want me to talk about the 4680 program? Or is this good, the right time?

德魯，你想讓我談談 4680 程序嗎？或者這是好的，正確的時間？

Yes. Sure. So throughout 2021, we focused on growing cell supply alongside our in-house 4680 effort to provide us flexibility and insurance as we attempt to grow as fast as possible. As we sit today, sales from suppliers actually sort of exceeds our other factory-limiting constraints that you mentioned, Elon, in 2022. Or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans based on the information we have.

是的。當然。因此，在整個 2021 年，我們專注於增加電池供應以及我們內部的 4680 努力，以便在我們試圖盡快增長時為我們提供靈活性和保險。正如我們今天所坐的那樣，2022 年，來自供應商的銷售實際上有點超過了您提到的其他工廠限制限制，Elon。或者換句話說，根據我們掌握的信息，4680 電池並不是我們 2022 年產量計劃的限制。

But we are making meaningful progress up the ramp curve in Kato. We're building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter. Our focus on the cell, the pack and the vehicles here is driving yield quality and cost to ensure we're ready for larger volumes this year as we ramp and next year. And the 4680 and pack tool installations here at Giga Austin are progressing well with some areas producing first parts. And the Internet has also noticed that. Yes, I was touring the cell factory here. I'm super pumped. It's like a really exciting accomplishment for us to bring everything into one awesome factory here in Texas.

但我們正在加藤的斜坡曲線上取得有意義的進展。我們每天製造 4680 個結構包，這些結構包正在德克薩斯州組裝到車輛中。我昨天和前一天開著一輛。我們相信我們的首批 4680 輛汽車將在本季度交付。我們對電池、電池組和車輛的關注正在提高產量質量和成本，以確保我們在今年和明年的產量增加時做好準備。 Giga Austin 的 4680 和包裝工具安裝進展順利，一些地區生產了第一批零件。互聯網也注意到了這一點。是的，我正在參觀這裡的電池工廠。我超級興奮。將所有東西都帶入德克薩斯州的一家很棒的工廠，這對我們來說就像是一項非常令人興奮的成就。

Absolutely. And just to repeat Drew's point, we still expect to be partly or primarily chip limited this year. So that's the thing that's actually the driver. And that chip limitation should alleviate next year. And then probably, we transition into a cell limitation battery, so total gigawatt hours of cell limitation, which is when the 4680 will become very important.

絕對地。並且重複 Drew 的觀點，我們仍然預計今年將部分或主要是芯片限制。所以這就是真正的驅動程序。明年，這種芯片限制應該會有所緩解。然後可能，我們過渡到電池限制電池，因此總千兆瓦時的電池限制，這就是 4680 將變得非常重要的時候。

Agreed.

同意。

Thank you very much. And now Zach has some opening remarks as well.

非常感謝你。現在 Zach 也有一些開場白。

Pretty long opening remarks.

相當長的開場白。

Yes. Thanks, Martin. As Elon mentioned, 2021 was a financially transformative year for the company. If we look across the full year '21 and compare that to 2020, our automotive gross margin, excluding credits, rose by over 600 basis points enabled by work on cost reduction, utilization of our Shanghai factory for exports and accelerating demand.

是的。謝謝，馬丁。正如埃隆所說，2021 年對公司來說是財務變革的一年。如果我們縱觀 21 年全年並將其與 2020 年進行比較，我們的汽車毛利率（不包括信貸）上升了 600 多個基點，這得益於降低成本、利用我們的上海工廠進行出口和加速需求的工作。

OpEx as a percentage of revenue reduced despite the impact of onetime items and unique items. And operating income more than tripled, with operating margin reaching our guidance of mid-teens. And these margins are trending up. We also saw regulatory credits accounting for a relatively small portion of our 2021 profitability, which we expect to continue to reduce in materiality going forward.

儘管受到一次性商品和獨特商品的影響，運營支出佔收入的百分比有所下降。營業收入增長了兩倍多，營業利潤率達到了我們十幾歲的指導。這些利潤率呈上升趨勢。我們還看到監管信貸占我們 2021 年盈利能力的相對較小部分，我們預計未來的重要性將繼續減少。

For Q4 specifically, automotive gross margin, excluding credits, increased to 29.2%, which is our highest yet. We do continue to see some impact of higher pricing on certain models and trends as was the case in prior quarters. But please keep in mind that due to backlogs, changes in pricing will generally impact our financials in future quarters. Supply chain challenges and port congestion resulted in a significant increase in our expedited costs in Q4. We also took reserves associated with warranty and recall costs.

特別是對於第四季度，不包括信貸在內的汽車毛利率上升至 29.2%，這是我們迄今為止的最高水平。與前幾個季度的情況一樣，我們確實繼續看到更高定價對某些模型和趨勢的影響。但請記住，由於積壓，定價變化通常會影響我們未來幾個季度的財務狀況。供應鏈挑戰和港口擁堵導致我們在第四季度的加急成本顯著增加。我們還提取了與保修和召回成本相關的儲備金。

Operating expenses were meaningfully impacted by stock-based compensation from the final 2 tranches of the CEO stock grant becoming probable and payroll taxes associated with the exercise of the 2012 CEO options. The total impact of these payroll taxes, warranty and recall costs and excess expedites was just over $700 million in the quarter.

運營費用受到來自 CEO 股票授予的最後 2 部分可能成為可能的基於股票的補償以及與 2012 年 CEO 期權的行使相關的工資稅的顯著影響。這些工資稅、保修和召回成本以及超額加急的總影響在本季度剛剛超過 7 億美元。

Our free cash flows have remained strong, reaching record levels in Q4 of $2.8 billion despite increased CapEx. In addition to using cash to grow the business as quickly as we can, we have been retiring legacy and high interest debt. Note that we plan to continue to utilize the ABS market for product-specific financing.

儘管資本支出增加，我們的自由現金流仍然保持強勁，在第四季度達到創紀錄的 28 億美元。除了使用現金盡快發展業務外，我們還一直在償還遺留和高息債務。請注意，我們計劃繼續利用 ABS 市場進行特定產品融資。

As we look forward, we expect 2022 to be another significant and exciting year for the company. We continue to drive for vehicle volume growth at or above 50%, as Elon mentioned, and our plans show that this is actually achievable with just our Fremont and Shanghai factories. For quite some time now, these factories have been running below capacity due to macro challenges with supply and logistics. As Elon mentioned as well, from what we're seeing, the pace of growth in 2022 will again be determined by supply chain and logistics, which is quite difficult for us to forecast.

展望未來，我們預計 2022 年對公司來說將是又一個重要且令人興奮的一年。正如 Elon 所說，我們繼續推動汽車銷量增長達到或超過 50%，我們的計劃表明，這實際上可以通過我們的弗里蒙特和上海工廠實現。相當長一段時間以來，由於供應和物流方面的宏觀挑戰，這些工廠一直處於產能不足的狀態。正如 Elon 所提到的，從我們所看到的情況來看，2022 年的增長速度將再次由供應鍊和物流決定，這對我們來說是很難預測的。

Despite these constraints, it's important to begin the ramp of Austin and Berlin to ensure that we are prepared once limitations ease, enabling us to increase total output more quickly in the future. This will result in higher fixed and semi-variable costs in the near term, in addition to the usual inefficiencies as we ramp a new factory.

儘管存在這些限制，重要的是開始奧斯汀和柏林的爬坡，以確保我們在限制放鬆後做好準備，使我們能夠在未來更快地增加總產量。這將導致短期內更高的固定和半可變成本，以及我們新建工廠時通常的低效率。

We are also seeing inflation and rising commodity prices, which we expect to continue to put pressure on our costs. How this specifically impacts gross margins in the near term is uncertain given a mix of both tailwinds and headwinds. However, we do expect to continue to see stronger operating margins as we grow our volumes and improve operating leverage. Over a longer-term horizon, we are quite optimistic about the expansion of margins though. From the hardware side, we are aggressively driving manufacturing innovations and operational efficiency to reduce cost. And with the rapid development of FSD, software-based profits will ultimately become a strong addition to the profits generated by selling hardware.

我們還看到通貨膨脹和商品價格上漲，我們預計這將繼續給我們的成本帶來壓力。鑑於順風和逆風的混合，這在短期內具體如何影響毛利率尚不確定。然而，隨著我們的銷量增長和運營槓桿的提高，我們確實預計將繼續看到更高的營業利潤率。不過，從長遠來看，我們對利潤率的擴大相當樂觀。在硬件方面，我們正在積極推動製造創新和運營效率以降低成本。而隨著FSD的快速發展，以軟件為基礎的利潤最終將成為銷售硬件產生的利潤的有力補充。

So congratulations to the Tesla team for a terrific 2021, and thank you to our suppliers who supported us. Looking forward to another great year.

因此，祝賀特斯拉團隊在 2021 年取得了出色的成績，並感謝支持我們的供應商。期待另一個偉大的一年。

I'd like to just second the thank you to suppliers. A lot of suppliers worked late nights, weekends, vacations around the world, and we're very grateful for that.

我想再次感謝供應商。世界各地的許多供應商都在深夜、週末、假期工作，對此我們非常感激。

Thank you very much. Let's go to the Q&A from the investor side. The first question was on 4680 cells, which we already answered, so let's go to the second question. How is the progress of the $25,000 compact car? Can you give an update?

非常感謝你。讓我們從投資者方面進行問答。第一個問題是關於 4680 單元的，我們已經回答了，所以讓我們轉到第二個問題。 2.5萬美元的緊湊型車進展如何？你能提供一個更新嗎？

Well, we're not currently working on the $25,000 car. At some point, we will. But we have enough on our plate right now, too much on our plate, frankly. So at some point there, we'll be. I think that's sort of a question that is sort of the wrong question really. Really, the thing that overwhelmingly matters is when is the car autonomous. At the point in which it is autonomous, the cost of transport drops by, I don't know, a factor of 4 or 5.

好吧，我們目前還沒有開發 25,000 美元的汽車。在某個時候，我們會的。但坦率地說，我們現在的盤子已經夠多了，太多了。所以在某個時候，我們會在那裡。我認為這確實是一個錯誤的問題。確實，最重要的是汽車何時實現自動駕駛。在它是自主的時候，運輸成本下降了，我不知道，下降了 4 或 5 倍。

Thank you. The next question from investors is, since we're talking product road maps today, how do you view domestic cooling and heating in the context of accelerating the sustainable energy transition? And how might Tesla's HVAC and heat pump advances fit it?

謝謝你。投資者的下一個問題是，既然我們今天談論的是產品路線圖，那麼在加速可持續能源轉型的背景下，您如何看待國內的供冷和供暖？特斯拉的 HVAC 和熱泵技術如何適應它？

Do you want to talk about that, Drew?

你想談談那個嗎，德魯？

Yes. I think from a mission perspective, it's very aligned. If you imagine replacing natural gas, water and space heaters with electric heat pumps, it offsets something equivalent to like 80% of what a solar plus a Powerwall system would offset, so it's very impactful. And we have learned a lot about how to make capable and reliable heat pumps that work in all environmental conditions and are excited about the idea of working on that problem one day. Let me put it that way. It's definitely aligned with our mission to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy.

是的。我認為從任務的角度來看，它非常一致。如果你想像用電熱泵代替天然氣、水和空間加熱器，它抵消了相當於太陽能加 Powerwall 系統抵消的 80% 的東西，所以它非常有影響力。我們學到了很多關於如何製造能夠在所有環境條件下工作的功能強大且可靠的熱泵，並對有一天解決這個問題的想法感到興奮。讓我這麼說吧。這絕對符合我們加速向可持續能源過渡的使命。

Yes, I think it really becomes quite a compelling solution to the consumer where you integrate the electric vehicle charging, solar energy storage, hot water, HVAC in a very tight, compact package that also looks good. It just doesn't exist.

是的，我認為它確實成為了一個非常吸引消費者的解決方案，您可以將電動汽車充電、太陽能儲存、熱水、HVAC 集成在一個非常緊湊、緊湊的包裝中，而且看起來也不錯。它只是不存在。

Yes, I mean the integration of those systems in a house...

是的，我的意思是把這些系統集成到一個房子裡......

That's Lars, by the way.

順便說一句，那是拉斯。

Sorry. The integration of those systems in a house are no different than the integration of those systems in a vehicle. The only difference is we do it all in the vehicle.

對不起。將這些系統集成到房屋中與將這些系統集成到車輛中沒有什麼不同。唯一的區別是我們在車裡做這一切。

Way harder on a vehicle. It's so constrained on mass and volume and energy. It's like if you get to the house like wow...

在車輛上更難。它受到質量、體積和能量的限制。就好像你到了家裡哇...

Kind of an easy problem.

一個簡單的問題。

Yes.

是的。

But obviously, those systems are all disparate and what we've been doing with Powerwall and charging solar is integrating them more and more. The next logical step is obviously HVAC and water and heating. So we will do that, and we will integrate it probably better than anyone has. But as you said, we have a lot of stuff on our plate.

但很明顯，這些系統都是完全不同的，我們一直在用 Powerwall 和充電太陽能做的事情越來越多地整合它們。下一個合乎邏輯的步驟顯然是暖通空調、水和供暖。所以我們會這樣做，我們可能會比任何人都更好地整合它。但正如你所說，我們的盤子裡有很多東西。

Yes. And mostly, it integrates -- like your phone or your phone app, everything. The car can -- like the house can just heat and cool things, right, because it knows that you're coming home type of thing. It still needs to be like randomly that temperature when you're not there or...

是的。大多數情況下，它集成了——比如你的手機或手機應用程序，一切。汽車可以——就像房子可以加熱和冷卻東西一樣，對，因為它知道你要回家了。當你不在那里或......

When the cat moves.

當貓移動時。

Yes, exactly. So do sensible things and just work really well. I think it would be just quite a game changer down the road. We've got a lot of fish frying on it. And so it is a thing we will do but we're not committing to a time frame at this point.

對，就是這樣。所以做明智的事情，並且工作得非常好。我認為這將是一個相當大的遊戲規則改變者。我們有很多魚在上面煎。所以這是我們將要做的事情，但我們目前沒有承諾時間框架。

And people should do it anyway.

人們無論如何都應該這樣做。

Yes, if somebody else wants to do it, yes.

是的，如果其他人想這樣做，是的。

It's super beneficial for achieving the goal here.

這對實現這裡的目標非常有益。

Yes.

是的。

The next question is, would you consider splitting FSD packages into perpetual and term licenses with a higher tier for both options for commercial use? A perpetual license could be attached to individual or business and not the vehicle itself.

下一個問題是，您是否考慮將 FSD 軟件包拆分為具有更高級別的永久許可和期限許可，以用於商業用途的兩種選擇？永久許可證可以附在個人或企業上，而不是車輛本身。

Now I mean it sounds maybe too complicated. We're just going to be focused on like what solves for the fully considered lowest cost per mile, kilometer of driving. So that's what matters, like how do you maximize the efficiency of getting people from one place to another and then charge them in a sensible way.

現在我的意思是這聽起來可能太複雜了。我們將專注於解決充分考慮的最低每英里行駛成本的方法。所以這才是最重要的，比如你如何最大限度地提高將人們從一個地方帶到另一個地方的效率，然後以合理的方式向他們收費。

Including the charging infrastructure. That's a big part of it.

包括充電基礎設施。這是其中很大一部分。

Yes, exactly, charging for money and charging for energy.

是的，確切地說，是為錢收費和為能源收費。

Thank you. The next question is, is Dojo on track for summer 2022? And what challenges, if any, are you working through? Is Dojo necessary for FSD to operate better in cities like New York City? Or on a separate note, where should we expect the first implementation of Tesla Bot in your factories?

謝謝你。下一個問題是，Dojo 是否有望在 2022 年夏季推出？如果有的話，你正在解決什麼挑戰？ FSD 是否需要道場才能在紐約市等城市更好地運作？或者單獨說明一下，我們應該期待在您的工廠中首次在哪裡實施 Tesla Bot？

Okay. There's a few questions on there.

好的。那裡有幾個問題。

Like 6 questions.

比如6個問題。

Yes, Dojo appears to be on track for doing something useful in the summer of this year. I think the threshold that really matters is, at which point, when does it become more competitive than a GPU cluster for training. And obviously, the GPU cluster is getting better. So it's a moving target. But that's the goal I've set for the team. The FSD team running our GPU supercluster needs to tell me that they want to use Dojo instead. That's the obvious sort of threshold. And I don't know when that will be.

是的，Dojo 似乎有望在今年夏天做一些有用的事情。我認為真正重要的閾值是，在什麼時候它變得比 GPU 集群更具競爭力進行訓練。顯然，GPU 集群正在變得更好。所以它是一個移動的目標。但這是我為球隊設定的目標。運行我們的 GPU 超級集群的 FSD 團隊需要告訴我他們想改用 Dojo。這是明顯的門檻。我不知道那會是什麼時候。

I wouldn't say like success is 100% certain here. I think we just generally want to overestimate meeting options and underestimate ourselves. But it does seem as though we might pass that threshold next year with Dojo if we execute well. Dojo is not needed for full self-driving but it is a cost optimization on creating vast amounts of video data. Cost optimization is also a rate of improvement. So if you can train models faster, have a shorter iteration interval, then you can make progress faster. So not everything can be distributed to something like GPUs. There's some elements of serialization there.

我不會說成功在這裡是 100% 確定的。我認為我們通常只是想高估會議選擇而低估自己。但是，如果我們執行得好，似乎明年我們可能會通過 Dojo 超越這個門檻。完全自動駕駛不需要 Dojo，但它是創建大量視頻數據的成本優化。成本優化也是一種改進的速度。因此，如果您可以更快地訓練模型，縮短迭代間隔，那麼您可以更快地取得進展。因此，並非所有東西都可以分發到 GPU 之類的東西上。那裡有一些序列化的元素。

And then if Dojo is competitive, then it does seem like the kind of thing where we would offer it to other companies that want to do neural net training. Those are very much a neural net training optimized system. But in theory, it should be better than a generalized computing platform or, say, GPUs, which are not really intended for -- the pixel trader is not directly intended for optimizing training of neural networks. They just happen to work better than CPUs in most cases. So we should be thinking of like Dojo as like a giant ASIC optimized for neural net training, especially video [or video-like] things. But like I said, we're not saying for sure that Dojo would succeed. We think it will. We would encourage those who think this is an interesting problem to join Tesla.

然後，如果 Dojo 具有競爭力，那麼我們確實會將它提供給其他想要進行神經網絡訓練的公司。這些在很大程度上是一個神經網絡訓練優化系統。但從理論上講，它應該比通用計算平台或 GPU 更好，因為像素交易者並非直接用於優化神經網絡的訓練。在大多數情況下，它們恰好比 CPU 工作得更好。所以我們應該把 Dojo 看作是一個為神經網絡訓練優化的巨型 ASIC，尤其是視頻（或類似視頻）的東西。但就像我說的，我們並不能肯定 Dojo 會成功。我們認為會的。我們鼓勵那些認為這是一個有趣的問題的人加入特斯拉。

And the first use of Tesla Bot, whether it's in the factory or elsewhere.

以及首次使用 Tesla Bot，無論是在工廠還是其他地方。

Yes. The first use of the Tesla Bot, Optimus. The Optimus name seems to be sticking, at least internally, Optimus Subprime. Like if we can't find a use for it, then we shouldn't expect that others would. So the first use of the Optimus robot would be at Tesla, kind of like moving parts around the factory or something like that.

是的。特斯拉機器人的首次使用，擎天柱。擎天柱的名字似乎堅持，至少在內部，擎天柱次貸。就像如果我們找不到它的用途，那麼我們不應該期望其他人會這樣做。所以 Optimus 機器人的第一次使用將是在特斯拉，有點像在工廠周圍移動部件或類似的東西。

Okay. Thank you very much. And the next question on insurance, when do you plan on having your insurance services rolled out in all the states? International rollout timing in markets that have Tesla Insurance, what kind of uptake rates are you seeing?

好的。非常感謝你。下一個關於保險的問題，你打算什麼時候在所有州推出你的保險服務？擁有特斯拉保險的市場的國際推出時間，你看到什麼樣的吸收率？

Yes. We currently offer Tesla Insurance in 5 states in the U.S. Four of them are telematics, which is Texas, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona. And then California, which has a more standard insurance offering based upon regulations there.

是的。我們目前在美國 5 個州提供 Tesla 保險，其中 4 個是遠程信息處理，分別是德克薩斯州、伊利諾伊州、俄亥俄州和亞利桑那州。然後是加利福尼亞，根據那裡的法規提供更標準的保險產品。

It should be clear, like we are pushing very hard for California to change the rules to allow informatics, which basically means that you're as safe as you're driving is measured. So I think the current California rules are contrary to the best interest of the consumers in California and should be changed.

應該很清楚，就像我們正在努力推動加利福尼亞州改變規則以允許信息學，這基本上意味著你和你開車一樣安全。所以我認為目前的加州規則違背了加州消費者的最大利益，應該改變。

Yes. And that's evidenced by what we're seeing in Texas. We've been in this market now for about 3 months. And what we see in the data is the frequency of collision by folks who are given a feedback loop on how they are driving is quite a bit lower than the frequency of collision in otherwise.

是的。我們在德克薩斯州看到的情況證明了這一點。我們已經進入這個市場大約 3 個月了。我們在數據中看到的是，被給予反饋迴路的人的碰撞頻率比其他情況下的碰撞頻率要低得多。

Yes. And we can do a direct feedback on whether driving is safe. And if they drive safer, their insurance cost less, so they drive safer. Tesla Insurance with informatics and real-time feedback encourages safer driving and rewards it monetarily. It's great.

是的。我們可以直接反饋駕駛是否安全。如果他們開車更安全，他們的保險費用就會更低，所以他們開車更安全。具有信息學和實時反饋的特斯拉保險鼓勵更安全的駕駛，並提供金錢獎勵。這很棒。

Exactly. And so we see that so far in Texas. Take rates have been quite strong. We measure this on the conversion rate from when folks quote to see what their monthly rate would be at the starting point to what percentage of them purchase. So we're very encouraged by the interest that we're seeing in Texas. And then we have enough history in Texas to see what does the loss ratios look like and how do the economics of the program work. And we're on the right track there as well. So we're comfortable with what we've seen in Texas to move as quickly as we can to scale this across the U.S.

確切地。到目前為止，我們在德克薩斯州看到了這一點。採取率一直相當強勁。我們根據人們報價時的轉化率來衡量這一點，以查看他們在起點的月費率到他們購買的百分比。因此，我們對德克薩斯州的興趣感到非常鼓舞。然後我們在得克薩斯州有足夠的歷史來了解損失率是什麼樣的以及該計劃的經濟性如何運作。我們也走在正確的軌道上。因此，我們對我們在德克薩斯州看到的情況感到滿意，我們會盡快採取行動，在整個美國擴大規模。

Specifically on the question about when we will be in all states, this is a slow process because of insurance being regulated at the state level. And so we have to go through each of those processes with each of the departments of insurance in each state. But our internal goal here by the end of the year is to be in enough locations that 80% of our customers within the U.S. could choose to sign up for Tesla Insurance if they wanted to. There's a lot of uncertainty around that based upon the regulatory processes, but that's our goal. And then as we make more progress rolling out in the states and each incremental state becomes a little bit less effort than the prior, that's when we'll turn our attention to the Europe market. We might be able to do that by the end of the year, starting to get work on Europe by the end of the year. We'll have to see how we progress in the U.S.

特別是關於我們何時會在所有州的問題，這是一個緩慢的過程，因為保險在州一級受到監管。因此，我們必須與每個州的每個保險部門一起完成每個流程。但到今年年底，我們的內部目標是到達足夠多的地點，讓我們 80% 的美國客戶可以選擇在他們願意的情況下註冊特斯拉保險。基於監管流程，這有很多不確定性，但這是我們的目標。然後，隨著我們在各州的推廣取得更多進展，並且每個增量州的努力都比以前少一點，那時我們會將注意力轉向歐洲市場。我們可能會在今年年底前做到這一點，並在年底前開始在歐洲開展工作。我們必須看看我們在美國的進展如何。

Thank you. Next question is, what is your expected max capacity from each of your current factories: Fremont, Shanghai, Berlin and Austin and timing for new factory announcements?

謝謝你。下一個問題是，您目前每個工廠的預期最大產能是多少：弗里蒙特、上海、柏林和奧斯汀，以及新工廠公告的時間？

I don't think we want to comment on -- it's always possible to increase the output of any given factory. So to say what's the next capacity, well, it's difficult to say what that next capacity is because you put a lot of evidence that you increase capacity quite a lot. Look at the big picture. Initially, we always want to increase capacity at one factory because logistics cost of transporting cars needs to be considered. Especially, as the cars become more affordable, you want to have factories that are not like thousands of miles away from the customers. So even if you could increase output, it may not actually be the smart thing to do.

我認為我們不想對此發表評論——增加任何給定工廠的產量總是有可能的。所以說下一個容量是什麼，很難說下一個容量是什麼，因為你提供了很多證據表明你增加了很多容量。看大圖。最初，我們總是希望增加一家工廠的產能，因為需要考慮運輸汽車的物流成本。特別是，隨著汽車變得越來越便宜，您希望擁有遠離客戶千里之外的工廠。因此，即使您可以增加產量，這實際上也可能不是明智之舉。

So in the U.S. with, for example, with Giga Texas coming up, we would want to deliver, say, Model Ys that are going to the eastern 2/3 of the United States from this factory because the logistics costs are going to be much less. But we will continue to increase output in Fremont and at Giga Nevada and at Shanghai. And as I said at the beginning of the call, 2022 is the year we will be looking at factory locations to see what makes the most sense, possibly with some announcement by the end of this year, yes.

因此，在美國，例如，隨著 Giga Texas 的到來，我們希望從這家工廠向美國東部 2/3 的地區交付 Model Y，因為物流成本會很高較少的。但我們將繼續增加弗里蒙特、Giga Nevada 和上海的產量。正如我在電話會議開始時所說的那樣，2022 年是我們將查看工廠位置的一年，看看什麼是最有意義的，可能會在今年年底發布一些公告，是的。

Thank you. And the next question is, what are the biggest obstacles for Cybertruck volume production besides battery shortage?

謝謝你。而接下來的問題是，除了電池短缺，Cybertruck 量產的最大障礙是什麼？

Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production. There's a lot of new technology in the Cybertruck that will take some time to work through. And then there's a question of like what's the average cost of Cybertruck and to what degree is that affordable. You can make something infinitely desirable. But if it's not affordable, that will constrain people's ability to buy it because they don't have the money. I worry more about like how do we make the Cybertruck affordable despite having awesome technology. That's the thing that will really set the rate. Aspirationally, in terms of just a rough order of magnitude, we'd like Cybertruck to be at least on the order of 0.25 million vehicles a year. But it will take us a moment to get to that level.

電池可能不會成為 Cybertruck 生產的限制因素。 Cyber truck中有很多新技術需要一些時間才能完成。然後是一個問題，比如 Cybertruck 的平均成本是多少，以及在多大程度上可以負擔得起。你可以做出無限渴望的東西。但如果它買不起，那將限制人們購買它的能力，因為他們沒有錢。我更擔心的是，儘管擁有出色的技術，我們如何讓 Cybertruck 負擔得起。這才是真正決定利率的東西。理想地，就一個粗略的數量級而言，我們希望 Cybertruck 每年至少達到 25 萬輛。但是我們需要一點時間才能達到那個水平。

Thank you. The next question is, how much of Tesla's margin improvement is from, number one, economies of scale; number two, production line design efficiencies; number three, reduced transportation costs from multiple plant locations; and number four, pricing versus cost inflation; or number five, other sources? And how much further could margins improve and why?

謝謝你。下一個問題是，特斯拉的利潤率提升有多少來自規模經濟？第二，生產線設計效率；第三，降低來自多個工廠位置的運輸成本；第四，定價與成本通脹；或第五，其他來源？利潤率還能提高多少，為什麼？

Yes. There's basically 4 major factors if we look over the last year to the margin improvement within the company. And they're in no particular order here, but these are the big ones. So our mix of Model Y is increasing as we've ramped that to higher capacity in Fremont and also in Shanghai. And the reason that matters is the Model Y is a vehicle that carries a higher profit than the Model 3. And so that is helpful on our margins. And then as we increase the volume on that program with labor efficiencies, fixed cost amortization, they improve and the costs go down as well.

是的。如果我們回顧去年公司內部利潤率的改善，基本上有 4 個主要因素。他們在這裡沒有特別的順序，但這些是大的。因此，隨著我們在弗里蒙特和上海將其擴大到更高的產能，我們的 Model Y 組合正在增加。重要的原因是 Model Y 的利潤比 Model 3 更高。所以這對我們的利潤率很有幫助。然後，隨著我們通過提高勞動力效率、固定成本攤銷來增加該計劃的數量，它們會有所改善，成本也會下降。

The second 1 here is localization in Shanghai has been a huge help for margins for the company. And the obvious things around logistics and duties is a big part of it. That factory had a different line design, more efficient from the start, and we've been pushing the boundaries on the volume there. So that has been helpful. If you recall, at the beginning of the year, we also were in a transition to the new version of the Model S and Model X. And so as that has ramped over the course of the year, that has been helpful. And then we've also done various price increases in certain markets on certain models, which has helped there. So that's generally the story at a high level.

這裡的第二個1是上海本地化對公司的利潤率有很大幫助。與物流和職責有關的顯而易見的事情是其中很大一部分。那家工廠有不同的生產線設計，從一開始就更高效，我們一直在推動那裡的產量界限。所以這很有幫助。如果您還記得，在今年年初，我們也正在向新版本的 Model S 和 Model X 過渡。因此，這一年的過程中，這種情況有所增加，這很有幫助。然後我們還在某些市場對某些型號進行了各種提價，這對此有所幫助。所以這通常是高層次的故事。

As we look over the next quarter or 2, as I mentioned in my opening remarks and the last call as well, we have ramp inefficiencies from the launch of Austin and Berlin. We also have pressures coming from inflation, supply chain, raw materials, et cetera. And so where that nets out is hard to say in the immediate term. And we obviously, as a company, are going to be driving to increase margins as much as we can. But I just want to be realistic that we're launching 2 factories simultaneously here and it unavoidably will add cost to the business as we do that.

正如我在開場白和最後一次電話會議中提到的那樣，在我們展望下一季度或第二季度時，奧斯汀和柏林的推出使我們效率低下。我們還面臨來自通脹、供應鏈、原材料等方面的壓力。因此，在短期內很難說淨在哪裡。顯然，作為一家公司，我們將盡可能地提高利潤率。但我只想現實一點，我們在這裡同時開設 2 家工廠，這樣做不可避免地會增加業務成本。

And as we look further out, and Elon mentioned this in his opening remarks as well, the software portion of the business, I think, is the one to really pay attention to. As full self-driving features get rolled out to more and more folks, I mean for me, personally, I prefer to drive my car with the FSD beta on. And I think as more and more people experience that, take rates there and then as we work towards the robotaxi space, there's actually quite a bit of upside on margins from a software perspective.

當我們進一步觀察時，埃隆在他的開場白中也提到了這一點，我認為業務的軟件部分是真正需要關注的部分。隨著全自動駕駛功能向越來越多的人推出，我的意思是，就我個人而言，我更喜歡在開啟 FSD 測試版的情況下駕駛我的汽車。而且我認為隨著越來越多的人體驗到這一點，在那裡收取費率，然後隨著我們向機器人出租車領域努力，從軟件的角度來看，實際上利潤率有相當大的上升空間。

Yes. I think basically everything pales in comparison to the value of robotaxi or full self-driving. I mean that just [tends] overall, in everything. You just go from having an asset that has a utility of perhaps 12 hours a week per passenger car to maybe around 50 or 60 hours a week to a 5x increase in the utility of the asset. The cost didn't change, yes. So that's where just things -- you just have to [focus] your mind.

是的。我認為與機器人出租車或全自動駕駛的價值相比，基本上一切都相形見絀。我的意思是，總的來說，在所有方面。您只需從擁有每輛乘用車每週 12 小時效用的資產到每週約 50 或 60 小時的效用，使資產效用增加 5 倍。成本沒有變化，是的。所以這就是事情的所在——你只需要[專注]你的思想。

Thank you. And the last question from investors is Elon mentioned Level 4 autonomy could be achieved this year. Is it based off initial FSD beta rollout experience? Or is Level 4 ability predicated on Dojo being complete and online?

謝謝你。投資者的最後一個問題是 Elon 提到今年可以實現 4 級自治。它是基於最初的 FSD 測試版推出經驗嗎？還是說 4 級能力是基於道場的完整和在線？

As mentioned earlier, Dojo is not required for full self-driving. It should have a positive effect on the cost of training neural networks. It's not just a question of like do you get to full self-driving but really kind of like the March of Nines of reliability, is it 99.999% reliable or 99.999999% reliable. It gets nutty. Obviously, we want to get to as close to perfection as possible. So frankly, being safe than a human is a low standard, not a high standard. People are very, very lossy, often distracted, tired, texting. Anyway, it's remarkable that we don't have more accidents, yes. So actually being better than a human, I think, is relatively straightforward, frankly, how it'd be 1,000% better or 10,000% better. Yes, that's much, much harder.

如前所述，完全自動駕駛不需要Dojo。它應該對訓練神經網絡的成本產生積極影響。這不僅僅是一個問題，你會不會完全自動駕駛，而是真的有點像九月三月的可靠性，它是 99.999% 可靠還是 99.999999% 可靠。它變得瘋狂。顯然，我們希望盡可能接近完美。坦率地說，比人類安全是一個低標準，而不是高標準。人們非常非常有損，經常分心，疲倦，發短信。無論如何，我們沒有發生更多事故，這很了不起，是的。因此，我認為實際上比人類更好是相對簡單的，坦率地說，它是如何提高 1,000% 或 10,000% 的。是的，這要困難得多。

But I think anyone who's been in the FSD beta program, I mean, if they were just to plot the progress of the beta interventions per mile, it's obviously trending to a very small number of interventions per mile and the pace of improvement is fast. And there are several profound improvements to the FSD stack that are coming in the next few months. Yes, I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than a human this year. I would be shocked.

但我認為任何參與過 FSD 測試計劃的人，我的意思是，如果他們只是繪製每英里測試干預的進度，顯然每英里的干預數量很少，而且改進的速度很快。在接下來的幾個月裡，FSD 堆棧將會有幾項深刻的改進。是的，如果我們今年不能實現比人類更安全的全自動駕駛，我會感到震驚。我會感到震驚。

Thank you. Let's go to analyst questions now. And the first question comes from Jed from Canaccord.

謝謝你。現在讓我們來回答分析師的問題。第一個問題來自 Canaccord 的 Jed。

Congratulations on a great year. Elon, I guess my question is around the Megapack or your energy business. And so as we look at the strategy or the supply chain constraints that you mentioned, you have 2 different strategies, or it seems like, with Megapack and Powerwall. And I think the Powerwall was answered with 4680 and the 2170 opening up. So I was wondering if you could just talk about the supply chain and LFP for the Megapack and what we should expect for that.

祝賀偉大的一年。 Elon，我想我的問題是關於 Megapack 或您的能源業務。因此，當我們查看您提到的策略或供應鏈限制時，您有 2 種不同的策略，或者看起來像 Megapack 和 Powerwall。我認為 Powerwall 的回答是 4680 和 2170 開放。所以我想知道你是否可以談談 Megapack 的供應鍊和 LFP 以及我們對此的期望。

Yes. To be clear, we do think that old stationary storage, Powerwall and Megapack, will transition to an iron-based system, basically a non-nickel system. Manganese also could be part of the future, but primarily iron. It just comes up, iron-nickel. We need something that is formed in a star before a supernova ideally. So iron is. So there's a ridiculous amount of iron on Earth as is a ridiculous amount of lithium. So you can really expect all stationary storage to transition to iron over time. And manganese is like a wildcard. There's also less manganese. Anyway, I should say like we did short-change the energy business last year in that vehicle took priority over the energy side not on cells but on chips. So yes, we do see a very long-term probably terawatt-hour per year energy business. So a lot, it's pretty vast. Yes.

是的。需要明確的是，我們確實認為舊的固定存儲 Powerwall 和 Megapack 將過渡到鐵基系統，基本上是非鎳系統。錳也可能成為未來的一部分，但主要是鐵。它剛剛出現，鐵鎳。理想情況下，我們需要在超新星之前在恆星中形成的東西。鐵也是。所以地球上的鐵含量高得離譜，鋰的含量也高得離譜。所以你真的可以期待所有的固定存儲隨著時間的推移而轉變為鐵。錳就像一個通配符。錳也少。無論如何，我應該說，就像我們去年確實改變了能源業務一樣，那輛車優先於能源方面，而不是電池，而是芯片。所以，是的，我們確實看到了非常長期的每年可能達到太瓦時的能源業務。這麼多，相當廣闊。是的。

That's helpful. So you see that '22 is kind of the opening of the energy business reaccelerating.

這很有幫助。所以你看到'22 是能源業務重新加速的開放。

It's hard to predict 2022 because there are still lingering supply chain issues globally. But I think the chip stuff, at least the chip side of things, appears to looks like it will alleviate end of this year or '23. I mean there's a crazy number of chip fabs being built, which is great. The sheer number of chip fabs being built right now is exciting to see, yes. But there could be other issues. We're trying to anticipate those as much as possible, but predicting the future is difficult.

很難預測 2022 年，因為全球供應鏈問題仍然揮之不去。但我認為芯片方面的東西，至少是芯片方面的東西，似乎會在今年年底或 23 年有所緩解。我的意思是正在建造大量的芯片工廠，這很棒。是的，現在正在建造的芯片工廠數量之多令人興奮。但可能還有其他問題。我們試圖盡可能多地預測這些，但預測未來是困難的。

And the goal is definitely to grow this year.

今年的目標肯定是增長。

Yes, it will grow this year, for sure. It's just, if we simply were able to respond to demand, it might grow by like 200% or 300% or something as opposed to sort of 50% or so.

是的，今年肯定會增長。只是，如果我們能夠簡單地響應需求，它可能會增長 200% 或 300% 或其他東西，而不是 50% 左右。

Yes. I mean I think it's exactly that. I mean it's a question of does it double, triple, quadruple? I mean either way, I think our plans are pretty ambitious for Megapack this year and storage in general. The exact amount of growth is hard to know. But ultimately, I mean to Elon's point about the growth of this business, I mean we need to be growing it faster than the vehicle business.

是的。我的意思是，我認為正是如此。我的意思是它是雙倍、三倍還是四倍的問題？我的意思是無論哪種方式，我認為我們今年對 Megapack 和總體存儲的計劃都非常雄心勃勃。確切的增長量很難知道。但歸根結底，我的意思是埃隆關於這項業務增長的觀點，我的意思是我們需要比汽車業務增長得更快。

And it will actually grow faster than the vehicle business once we can leash the damn chip constraint, frankly. So it will grow like [kelp on shores] basically. It needs to. Our primary mission is to accelerate sustainable energy. That's always been our primary mission, and we're trying to stay true to that.

坦率地說，一旦我們能夠擺脫該死的芯片限制，它實際上會比汽車業務增長得更快。所以它基本上會像[海岸上的海帶]一樣生長。它需要。我們的首要任務是加速可持續能源。這一直是我們的主要使命，我們正努力做到這一點。

The next question comes from Ben Kallo from Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ben Kallo。

I was wondering on the R&D front because, like you said, you have so many fish frying. How do you organize the R&D efforts so that you can start talking about all these new products? Is there like an incubator or some type of thing like that? But just structurally, I'm curious about that.

我想知道研發方面的問題，因為就像你說的，你有這麼多炸魚。您如何組織研發工作，以便您可以開始談論所有這些新產品？有沒有孵化器之類的東西？但就結構而言，我對此很好奇。

Well, we don't have incubators.

好吧，我們沒有孵化器。

Or research centers.

或者研究中心。

We don't have research centers.

我們沒有研究中心。

We work on things that go into our products.

我們致力於進入我們產品的事物。

Yes, we're like this is a useful product that the world really needs. And we're just like let's make this thing, design it up and iterate fast and then figure out how to make this at scale at a reasonable price. That last part is the super hard part. Many times, we've said prototypes are easy, but production is hard. If we could work on that as only prototypes, what's the point of that? Like you actually have to reach scale production and have cash and exceed cash out. That's the super hard part.

是的，我們認為這是世界真正需要的有用產品。我們就像讓我們製作這個東西，設計它并快速迭代，然後找出如何以合理的價格大規模製作它。最後一部分是超級難的部分。很多時候，我們都說過原型很容易，但生產很難。如果我們可以僅將其作為原型進行工作，那有什麼意義呢？就像您實際上必須達到規模生產並擁有現金並超過現金支出一樣。這是超級難的部分。

So everybody needs to be in the factory often enough to be able to understand that last part of the equation. And if you're in the research center...

所以每個人都需要經常在工廠裡，以便能夠理解等式的最後一部分。如果你在研究中心...

Yes. Doing them separately is like [initiation] for actually making products. So we don't think of it as R&D, like the product development is just one (expletive) aspect. One needs to just make great products.

是的。分開做就像[開始]實際製造產品。所以我們不認為它是研發，就像產品開發只是一個（咒罵）方面。一個人只需要製造出色的產品。

So just in general, societally, there's way too much value placed on the idea. It's like you have the idea of going to the moon. That's not the hard part, okay? Going to the moon is the hard part by far. And the thing is that, that is true for really most products. So there's just way too much value placed in the idea versus execution. And we have ideas. We have gazillion ideas so many ideas we don't know what to do with. Let's just sort through them and say which ones are we actually going to go through the [lost frontiers] of bringing them to volume production. And then to actually do that, that's tough.

所以總的來說，在社會上，這個想法被賦予了太多的價值。這就像你有去月球的想法。這不是最難的部分，好嗎？到目前為止，去月球是最困難的部分。問題是，對於大多數產品來說都是如此。因此，在想法與執行之間存在太多的價值。我們有想法。我們有無數的想法，太多的想法我們不知道如何處理。讓我們對它們進行分類，然後說出我們實際上將要經歷哪些將它們投入批量生產的[失落的前沿]。然後真正做到這一點，這很難。

And the closer you are at applying blood, sweat and tears to actual production, the faster you'll be able to bring these things into actual production.

而且，您越接近將血液、汗水和淚水應用到實際生產中，您就能越快地將這些東西投入實際生產。

Yes, exactly. You want a tight feedback loop production. Just like the office we're sitting in right now looks over the Giga Texas production line. Like the offices are integrated into the factory.

對，就是這樣。你想要一個緊密的反饋循環生產。就像我們現在所在的辦公室俯瞰 Giga Texas 生產線一樣。就像辦公室融入工廠一樣。

Thank you very much. The next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi from Bernstein.

非常感謝你。下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Toni Sacconaghi。

I have 2, please. First, you spoke a lot about FSD and how the economics could be very attractive going forward. I'm wondering if you could just share what your current attach rate might be for FSD on your vehicles or how to think about the progress of your attach rate or revenue in FSD, let's say, in '21 versus '20 and how much deferred revenue for FSD was drawn down during the year. And I have a follow-up, please.

我有2個，請。首先，你談了很多關於 FSD 以及未來經濟如何非常有吸引力的問題。我想知道您是否可以分享您當前車輛上 FSD 的附加率，或者如何考慮您在 FSD 中的附加率或收入的進展，比如說，在 21 年與 20 年以及延遲了多少消防處的收入於年內提取。我有一個跟進，拜託。

I think the FSD stuff, you really don't want to be looking at the rearview mirror. It will not be a good indicator for the future. What you need is to look out at the front windscreen because it is such a profound step change. I mean effectively, long term, every car will have FSD. And the value of that will be a very big number. Just look at this as asset utilization, you have a passenger car, which normally is driven maybe 1.5 hours a day on average, maybe 10, 12 hours a week, a lot of cars in the parking lots, so you're spending money not just driving the cars but storing them all over the place. We can get rid of a lot of parking lots if you have a car that is operating all the time.

我認為FSD的東西，你真的不想看後視鏡。這不會是未來的一個很好的指標。您需要注意的是前擋風玻璃，因為這是一個如此深刻的變化。我的意思是，從長遠來看，每輛車都會有 FSD。這將是一個非常大的數字。把這看成資產利用率，你有一輛乘用車，通常平均每天開 1.5 小時，每周可能 10 到 12 小時，停車場裡有很多車，所以你不花錢只是駕駛汽車，但將它們存放在所有地方。如果您的汽車一直在運行，我們可以擺脫很多停車場。

But there will be a challenge with traffic. So we have like this little tiny baby company, The Boring Company, which I initially started as a joke. And now I think it actually could be quite essential to alleviating the insane traffic that will happen when cars are autonomous because you reduce the pain of travel and you reduce the cost of travel so dramatically that there will be a crazy number of cars on the road. I mean I think it will be cheaper to go point to point with a robotaxi, which is an autonomous Tesla, which every car we've made in the past 3 or 4 years will be capable of that, than a bus or a subway. It will cost less than the subsidized value of a bus ticket. So if you want to get -- cool, I'm not going to take the bus.

但交通將面臨挑戰。所以我們有這樣一個小小的嬰兒公司，無聊公司，我最初是作為一個玩笑開始的。現在我認為這實際上對於緩解汽車自動駕駛時會發生的瘋狂交通非常重要，因為你減少了旅行的痛苦，並且大大降低了旅行的成本，以至於路上會有大量的汽車.我的意思是，我認為使用自動駕駛出租車點對點會更便宜，這是一輛自動駕駛的特斯拉，我們在過去 3 或 4 年製造的每輛汽車都能夠做到這一點，而不是公共汽車或地鐵。它的成本將低於公交車票的補貼價值。所以如果你想得到——很酷，我不打算坐公共汽車。

If it costs you, I don't know, for argument's sake, $2 to travel 10 miles point to point, nobody is taking the bus, especially in cold weather or it's dark or maybe a little bit dangerous, to hell with that. People just do not understand how profound a change this is. It's not like some little feature. It's like the most profound software upgrade maybe in history. Millions of cars suddenly have, what, 4 or 5x utility overnight. I don't actually know how to quantify that financially except that it's some big number.

為了爭論，我不知道，如果它花費你，2 美元點到點旅行 10 英里，沒有人乘坐公共汽車，特別是在寒冷的天氣或天黑或可能有點危險的情況下，去地獄吧。人們只是不明白這是多麼深刻的變化。它不像一些小功能。這可能是歷史上最深刻的軟件升級。一夜之間，數以百萬計的汽車突然擁有了 4 或 5 倍的效用。我實際上不知道如何在財務上量化它，除非它是一個很大的數字。

Okay. Elon, I was wondering if I could just follow up and ask you, you talked about your product road map and also your goal to keep growing at 50% per year or better. That would put you at 3.2 million vehicles or more in 2024. And I think you made reference to Cybertruck maybe being 250,000 vehicles. If there is no $25,000 vehicle being worked on, is it really realistic to think that you can sell more than 3 million vehicles with 2 very high-volume cars and Cybertruck in 2024? How do we think about that? Or what else is missing in that equation?

好的。 Elon，我想知道我是否可以跟進並問你，你談到了你的產品路線圖，以及你保持每年 50% 或更高增長的目標。這將使您在 2024 年達到 320 萬輛或更多。我認為您提到 Cybertruck 可能是 250,000 輛。如果沒有 25,000 美元的車輛正在開發，那麼認為您可以在 2024 年銷售超過 300 萬輛汽車和 2 輛非常大容量的汽車和 Cybertruck 真的現實嗎？我們怎麼看？或者這個等式中還缺少什麼？

Yes. I mean it's apparent from the questions that the gravity of full self-driving is not fully appreciated. If an asset has 5x more utilization, in fact, it's like dividing the cost of that asset by 5. So if you have a $50,000 car, it's like having a $10,000 car all of a sudden. But maybe better than that, because still you may want to drive, so the person can be engaged in productivity or amusement instead of having to onerously drive through traffic. So it's probably better than 5x. I don't know. Yes. I mean basically, if the cost of our cars do not change at all, we would still sell as many as we could possibly make.

是的。我的意思是，從問題中可以明顯看出，完全自動駕駛的嚴重性並未得到充分認識。事實上，如果一項資產的利用率提高了 5 倍，這就像將該資產的成本除以 5。因此，如果您擁有一輛 50,000 美元的汽車，就像突然擁有一輛 10,000 美元的汽車。但也許比這更好，因為你仍然可能想開車，所以這個人可以從事生產力或娛樂，而不必費力地開車穿過交通。所以它可能比 5x 更好。我不知道。是的。我的意思是，基本上，如果我們的汽車成本根本沒有變化，我們仍然會盡可能多地銷售。

Thank you. And the next question comes from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.

謝謝你。下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

Can you hear me well?

你聽得清楚嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I wanted to come back on battery. So it's great to hear, on one hand, that you guys expect to sell like the first car with 4680 this quarter and, at the same time, that you don't really depend on that ramp what you hope to achieve in terms of significant volume growth this year. And the question I had is, I understand well the ramp of 4680 internally, but I'd be curious to hear you talk about how you think about 4680 as being a form factor that your suppliers could adopt as well and how you see, in the long run, in the greater scheme of things, what does 4680 become. Is it going to be, outside of Tesla, the largest form factor for batteries? Is it something that you guys are going to deploy in all cars, whatever the chemistry, also in the Megapack, in all your energy storage business? And do you expect eventually a lot of other companies to use that form factor as well?

我想用電池回來。所以很高興聽到，一方面，你們希望在本季度以 4680 的價格出售第一輛汽車，同時，你們並不真正依賴於坡道，您希望在顯著方面實現什麼今年銷量增長。我的問題是，我非常了解 4680 在內部的發展趨勢，但我很想听聽您談論您如何看待 4680 作為您的供應商也可以採用的外形尺寸以及您如何看待，從長遠來看，在更大的計劃中，4680 會變成什麼。它會是特斯拉之外最大的電池嗎？你們是否將在所有汽車中部署它，無論化學成分如何，也在 Megapack 中，在你所有的儲能業務中？您是否預計最終會有很多其他公司也使用這種外形尺寸？

Yes. On the 4680 as a form factor, yes, we've engaged with a number of our partners, our suppliers, on the form factor. And they're all working on it. And they look at it the way we look at it as a way to drive fundamental cost efficiencies in production and also, ultimately, the design of the cell itself to drive the cost down of the cell. I mean we're engaged because we think it's a good form factor. They're engaged because they think it's a good form factor. And we want people to make it for sure. To the question about should everything be 4680, it doesn't have to be. In the end, it's about cost competitiveness, scalability of manufacturing. And when you compare like an iron cell with a nickel cell, for example, like there are some just physics-based differences in what happens in certain corner cases that would drive different form factors, and we just have to be cognizant of that and design to that. So it isn't like the ultimate form factor for all things. There's other form factors that could be better for an iron cell, for example.

是的。是的，在 4680 作為外形尺寸方面，我們已經與我們的許多合作夥伴、我們的供應商就外形尺寸進行了接觸。他們都在努力。他們看待它的方式就像我們將其視為推動生產中基本成本效率的一種方式，以及最終推動電池本身的設計以降低電池成本。我的意思是我們訂婚了，因為我們認為這是一個很好的形式因素。他們之所以參與是因為他們認為這是一個很好的形式因素。我們希望人們能夠做到這一點。對於應該一切都是4680的問題，它不一定是。最後，它是關於成本競爭力和製造的可擴展性。例如，當您將鐵電池與鎳電池進行比較時，例如，在某些極端情況下會發生一些基於物理的差異會驅動不同的外形尺寸，我們只需要認識到這一點並進行設計到那個。因此，它並不是所有事物的終極外形。例如，還有其他形狀因素可能更適合鐵電池。

We don't use 4680 at all for the iron-based cells.

對於鐵基電池，我們根本不使用 4680。

Okay. And I have a quick follow-up on chips. So you've talked a lot about all this shortage and the supply difficulties. And I was wondering if you could give us some color on like the power chips you need for investors and all the power systems you're putting together versus like the more traditional logic chips, if the situation is different between the 2. And should we understand from the situation today that you're working very hard also at expanding the scope of your suppliers? And should we expect like Tesla to take onboard additional suppliers in the near term, especially on the power side?

好的。我對芯片進行了快速跟進。所以你已經談了很多關於所有這些短缺和供應困難的問題。而且我想知道如果兩者之間的情況不同，您是否可以給我們一些顏色，例如投資者所需的電源芯片以及您組裝的所有電源系統，而不是更傳統的邏輯芯片。我們應該從今天的情況看，你們也在努力擴大供應商的範圍嗎？我們是否應該期望像特斯拉那樣在短期內吸收更多的供應商，尤其是在電力方面？

Well, last year was chip hell of many chips, so silicon carbide competitors, or certainly one of them, but...

嗯，去年是許多芯片的芯片地獄，所以碳化矽的競爭對手，或者肯定是其中之一，但是......

Honestly, there's a lot of annoying, very boring parts.

老實說，有很多煩人的，非常無聊的部分。

Yes. It's a ton of very simple control chips, that run-of-the-mill literally kind. Yes, basic chips to control...

是的。這是一大堆非常簡單的控制芯片，那種普通的字面意思。是的，控制的基本芯片......

Also just reference oscillators, those are very boring things.

也只是參考振盪器，這些都是非常無聊的事情。

Yes, exactly. Like that little chip that allows you to move your seat back and forth, that actually was a big problem. But a lot of these things are alleviating. I think there's some degree of the toilet paper problem as well where there was a toilet paper shortage during COVID. Obviously, it wasn't really certainly a tremendous enhanced need for ass wiping. It's just people panicked and got every paper product you could possibly wipe your ass with basically. And I wasn't sure, is this like a real thing or not? I actually took my kids to the H-E-B and Walmart in Texas to just confirm if it was real. Indeed, it was. And there's plenty of food and everything else but just nothing, no paper products. That didn't cause us [plenty].

對，就是這樣。就像那個可以讓你來回移動座位的小芯片一樣，這實際上是一個大問題。但是很多這些事情正在緩解。我認為在 COVID 期間衛生紙短缺的地方也存在一定程度的衛生紙問題。顯然，這並不是對擦屁股的強烈需求。只是人們驚慌失措，得到了基本上可以用來擦屁股的所有紙製品。我不確定，這是不是真的？實際上，我帶我的孩子們去了德克薩斯州的 H-E-B 和沃爾瑪，只是為了確認它是否真實。確實如此。還有很多食物和其他東西，但什麼都沒有，沒有紙製品。這並沒有導致我們[很多]。

An odd choice for people to panic about, yes, because these things are -- actually, if end of the world is coming, I think toilet paper is the least of your problems. So I think we saw just a lot of companies over-order chips and then buffer the chips. And so we should see, and we are seeing, alleviation in almost every area. But the output of the vehicle goes with the least lucky. What are the most problematic items in an entire car? There seems like at least 10,000 unique parts in the car, way more than that if you go further up the supply chain. And so which one is going to be the least lucky one this time? It's hard to say.

讓人們感到恐慌是一個奇怪的選擇，是的，因為這些事情是——實際上，如果世界末日即將來臨，我認為衛生紙是你最不關心的問題。所以我認為我們看到很多公司過度訂購芯片然後緩衝芯片。因此，我們應該看到，而且我們正在看到，幾乎每個領域都在緩解。但車輛的輸出最不幸運。整車最容易出問題的項目是什麼？汽車中似乎至少有 10,000 個獨特的零件，如果你在供應鏈的上游走得更遠，那就更多了。那麼這次哪一個會是最不幸運的呢？很難說。

Yes. I mean on a go-forward basis, right, the idea is to continue to drive simplification. So there are fewer unique parts, fewer of them. On the power side, in particular, it's still like an area of technological development where the next chip can do the same thing with less [diarrhea]. So like the total fab required to accomplish the function goes down. So there's still room to grow without needing more fab capacity. But in general, there's a lot more fab capacity coming. So that's like a win-win there.

是的。我的意思是在前進的基礎上，正確的想法是繼續推動簡化。因此，獨特的部分越來越少，它們也越來越少。特別是在功率方面，它仍然像一個技術發展領域，下一個芯片可以用更少的[腹瀉]做同樣的事情。因此，就像完成該功能所需的總晶圓廠數量下降一樣。因此，在不需要更多晶圓廠產能的情況下仍有增長空間。但總的來說，還有更多的晶圓廠產能即將到來。所以這就像是一個雙贏的局面。

Yes. It's not a long-term thing because there's a crazy amount of chip fabs being built, which is great.

是的。這不是一件長期的事情，因為正在建造大量的芯片工廠，這很棒。

Well, thank you very much. Unfortunately, that is all the time we have for this session. Thanks very much for all your good questions, and we'll speak to you again in 3 months' time. Have a good day. Bye-bye.

好的，謝謝。不幸的是，這就是我們本次會議的所有時間。非常感謝您提出的所有好問題，我們將在 3 個月後再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。再見。

Thanks.

謝謝。