特斯拉 (TSLA) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Tesla Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎收看特斯拉 2021 年第二季度財務業績和問答網絡直播。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）我現在想將會議交給您今天的演講者，投資者關係高級總監 Martin Viecha。請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. And welcome to Tesla's Second Quarter 2021 Q&A Webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives. Our Q2 results were announced at about 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎收聽特斯拉 2021 年第二季度問答網絡直播。今天，埃隆·馬斯克、扎卡里·柯克霍恩和其他一些高管加入了我的行列。我們的第二季度業績在下午 1:00 左右公佈。我們在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上發布的更新平台中的太平洋時間。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events and results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions) But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件和結果可能存在重大差異。 （操作員說明）但在我們進入問答環節之前，Elon 有一些開場白。埃隆?

Sure. So to recap, Q2 2021 was a record quarter on many levels. We achieved record production, deliveries and surpassed over $1 billion in GAAP net income for the first time in Tesla history. I'd really like to congratulate everyone at Tesla for an amazing job. This is really an incredible milestone.

當然。回顧一下，2021 年第二季度在許多層面上都是創紀錄的季度。我們實現了創紀錄的產量、交付量，並在特斯拉歷史上首次超過 10 億美元的 GAAP 淨收入。我真的很想祝賀特斯拉的每個人都做了出色的工作。這真是一個不可思議的里程碑。

It also seems that public sentiment towards EVs is at an inflection point; and at this point, I think almost everyone agrees that electric vehicles are the only way forward. Regarding supply chain, while we're making cars at full speed, the global chip shortage situation remains quite serious. For the rest of this year, our growth rates will be determined by the slowest part in our supply chain, which is there's a wide range of chips that are, at various times, the slowest parts in the supply chain.

似乎公眾對電動汽車的情緒也處於拐點；在這一點上，我想幾乎每個人都同意電動汽車是唯一的出路。在供應鏈方面，我們在全速造車的同時，全球芯片短缺的形勢依然嚴峻。在今年餘下的時間裡，我們的增長率將取決於我們供應鏈中最慢的部分，即有很多芯片在不同的時間都是供應鏈中最慢的部分。

I mean it's worth noting that if we had -- everything else, if we had vast numbers of vehicles themselves, we would not be able to make them -- if everything, except the chips, we wouldn't be able to make them. The chip supply is fundamentally the governing factor on our output. It is difficult for us to see how long this will last because we don't have -- this is out of our control essentially. It does seem like it's getting better, but it's hard to predict.

我的意思是值得注意的是，如果我們擁有——其他所有東西，如果我們自己擁有大量車輛，我們將無法製造它們——如果除了芯片之外的所有東西，我們都無法製造它們。芯片供應從根本上是我們產量的控制因素。我們很難看到這會持續多久，因為我們沒有——這基本上是我們無法控制的。看起來情況正在好轉，但很難預測。

So in fact, even achieving the output that we did achieve was only due to an immense effort from people within Tesla. We were able to substitute alternative chips and then write the firmware in a matter of weeks. It's not just a matter of swapping out a chip. You also have to rewrite the software. So it was an incredibly intense effort of finding new chips, writing new firmware, integrating with the vehicle and testing in order to maintain production.

所以事實上，即使是我們實現的輸出也只是由於特斯拉內部人員的巨大努力。我們能夠替換替代芯片，然後在幾週內編寫固件。這不僅僅是更換芯片的問題。您還必須重寫軟件。因此，尋找新芯片、編寫新固件、與車輛集成和測試以維持生產是一項令人難以置信的緊張工作。

And I'd also like to thank our suppliers who worked with us. And there have been many calls at midnight, 1 a.m., just with suppliers but -- in resolving a lot of the shortages. So thanks very much to our suppliers.

我還要感謝與我們合作的供應商。午夜凌晨 1 點有很多電話，只是與供應商聯繫，但是 - 解決了很多短缺問題。所以非常感謝我們的供應商。

Let's see. In terms of FSD subscription, we were able to launch full self-driving subscription last month. And we expect it to build slowly and then -- but then gather a lot of momentum over time. Obviously, we need to have the full-self driving build widely available for it really to take off at a high rate and make a lot of progress there. So yes, I think FSD subscription will be a significant factor probably next year.

讓我們來看看。在 FSD 訂閱方面，我們上個月能夠推出完全自動駕駛訂閱。我們預計它會慢慢建立，然後 - 但隨著時間的推移會聚集很多動力。顯然，我們需要廣泛使用全自動駕駛系統，以便它真正以高速度起飛並在那裡取得很大進展。所以是的，我認為 FSD 訂閱可能是明年的一個重要因素。

With regard to Giga Texas and Giga Berlin, we're actually doing this earnings call from Giga Texas, so we're in the factory right now doing this earnings call. And the team has made incredible progress here. You can see the pictures online and see that there's basically nothing a year ago and this -- a large -- a mostly complete large factory a year later. So it's really great work by the Giga Texas team. And then also great work in Berlin, Brandenburg with the team there.

關於 Giga Texas 和 Giga Berlin，我們實際上是在 Giga Texas 做這個財報電話會議，所以我們現在在工廠裡做這個財報電話會議。團隊在這裡取得了令人難以置信的進步。你可以在網上看到圖片，一年前基本上什麼都沒有，而這——一個大的——一年後幾乎完整的大型工廠。因此，Giga Texas 團隊的工作非常出色。然後在柏林和勃蘭登堡與那裡的團隊一起工作也很棒。

So we expect to be producing the sort of new design of the Model Y in both factories in limited production later this year. It's always like it's not -- it's hard to sort of explain to people who have not been through the agony of a manufacturing ramp. Like why can't you just turn it on and make 5,000 a week? This is -- it is so hard to do manufacturing. It is so hard to do production. At gross approximation, there are 10,000 unique parts and processes that have to work. And the greater growth of production goes as fast as the least lucky and dumbest of those 10,000 things. And a bunch of them are not even in our control, so it's like -- it's insanely difficult.

因此，我們預計將在今年晚些時候在兩家工廠限量生產 Model Y 的那種新設計。總是好像不是——很難向那些沒有經歷過製造斜坡的人解釋。比如你為什麼不能打開它每週賺5000？這是 - 做製造業是如此困難。生產太難了。粗略來說，有 10,000 個獨特的零件和流程必須工作。生產的更大增長與這 10,000 件事情中最不幸運和最愚蠢的事情一樣快。其中一堆甚至不在我們的控制範圍內，所以就像 - 這非常困難。

I'm fond of saying that prototypes are easy and production is hard. And arguably, the really remarkable thing that Tesla's done is not to make an electric car or to be a car start-up because there have been hundreds of car start-ups in the United States and outside United States. So the thing that's remarkable is that Tesla didn't go bankrupt in reaching volume production. That's the amazing part because everyone else did, because they all got the prototype before the idea was the hard part and it is not. It is trivial by comparison with actual production.

我喜歡說原型很容易，生產很難。可以說，特斯拉所做的真正了不起的事情不是製造電動汽車或成為汽車初創公司，因為在美國和美國以外已經有數百家汽車初創公司。所以值得注意的是，特斯拉在實現量產時並沒有破產。這是令人驚奇的部分，因為其他人都這樣做了，因為他們都在想法變得困難之前就獲得了原型，而事實並非如此。與實際生產相比，這是微不足道的。

So it's always worth noting that of all the American car companies, there are only 2 that have not gone bankrupt and that is Ford and Tesla. So the seeds of defeat are sown on the day of victory, and we must be careful that we do not do that. So often, if you look at history, so often, the seeds of defeat are sown on the day of victory. We will endeavor not to make that the case of Tesla.

所以始終值得注意的是，在所有美國汽車公司中，只有兩家沒有破產，那就是福特和特斯拉。所以失敗的種子是在勝利之日播下的，我們必須小心不要那樣做。很多時候，如果你回顧歷史，很多時候，失敗的種子是在勝利之日播下的。我們將努力不讓特斯拉成為這種情況。

So let's see, the model lines in Texas -- and mainly in Texas and Berlin will be -- will look very much like the Model Ys we currently make, but there are substantial improvements in the difficulty of manufacturing. So for example, the Model Y made here and in Berlin will have a cast front body and a cast rear body, whereas the one in California has a cast rear body but not a cast front body. We're also aiming to do a structural pack with 4680s cells, which is a mass reduction and a cost reduction.

所以讓我們看看，德克薩斯州的模型生產線——主要是德克薩斯州和柏林——看起來會非常像我們目前製造的 Model Y，但在製造難度上有很大的提高。例如，這里和柏林製造的 Model Y 將有一個鑄造前車身和一個鑄造後車身，而在加利福尼亞生產的 Model Y 有一個鑄造後車身，但沒有鑄造前車身。我們還打算用 4680s 電池做一個結構包，這是一個質量減少和成本降低。

But we're not counting on that as the only way to make things work. We have some backup plan with nonstructural -- with a nonstructural pack and 2170s essentially. So -- but at scale production, we obviously want to be using 4680s and a structural pack. From a physics standpoint, this is the best architecture; and from an economic standpoint, it is the lowest cost way to go. So the lightest, lowest cost.

但我們並不指望這是讓事情順利進行的唯一方法。我們有一些非結構性的備用計劃——本質上是一個非結構性的包和 2170。所以——但在大規模生產中，我們顯然希望使用 4680 和結構包。從物理學的角度來看，這是最好的架構；從經濟角度來看，這是成本最低的方式。所以最輕，成本最低。

But there's a lot of new technology there, so it is difficult to predict with precision when does it work and when do you reach scale production. And Drew's going to talk a bit more about the 4680 production. Yes.

但是那裡有很多新技術，因此很難準確預測它何時起作用以及何時達到規模生產。 Drew 將更多地談論 4680 的生產。是的。

So we're all making great progress on the 4680 cells, but there is a tremendous amount of innovation that we're packing into that 4680 cell. And so it's not simply a sort of minor improvement on state of the art. There are -- and we went through this on the Battery Cell Day -- really dozens of -- half a dozen major improvements and dozens of small improvements. So I think it will be great, but it's difficult to say when the last of the technical challenges will be solved.

因此，我們都在 4680 電池方面取得了長足的進步，但我們正在將大量創新融入到 4680 電池中。因此，這不僅僅是對現有技術的一種微小改進。有 - 我們在電池節那天經歷了這個 - 真的有幾十個 - 六個重大改進和幾十個小改進。所以我認為這會很棒，但很難說最後一個技術挑戰何時會得到解決。

So in conclusion, our team continues to make huge efforts to make our factories run at full speed, which is very difficult. We have had some factory shutdowns due to part shortages, and we hope those will be relieved in the coming weeks and months. And we're making great progress on full self-driving. Some of the progress is not easy to see because it is at a foundational software level, and so then it ends up being sort of a 2 steps forward, 1 step back situation. And -- but over time, you do 2 steps forward and 1 step back and keep going, you do move forward.

所以總而言之，我們的團隊繼續付出巨大的努力，讓我們的工廠全速運轉，這是非常困難的。由於零件短缺，我們已經關閉了一些工廠，我們希望這些問題在未來幾周和幾個月內會得到緩解。我們在全自動駕駛方面取得了很大進展。有些進展並不容易看到，因為它處於基礎軟件級別，因此最終會出現一種前進 2 步，後退 1 步的情況。而且——但是隨著時間的推移，你向前走兩步，向後走兩步，繼續前進，你確實向前邁進了。

So I'm highly confident that the cars will be capable of full self-driving. If they have a full self-driving computer and the cameras, I'm confident that they will be able to drive themselves with the safety level substantially greater than that of the average cars.

所以我非常有信心這些汽車將能夠完全自動駕駛。如果他們有一台完全自動駕駛的電腦和攝像頭，我相信他們將能夠以遠高於普通汽車的安全水平駕駛自己。

Once again, thanks to all of our employees who are making this a breakthrough year for Tesla and an incredible quarter. Thanks, guys.

再次感謝我們所有的員工，他們讓這一年對特斯拉來說是突破性的一年，也是一個令人難以置信的季度。多謝你們。

Thank you very much. And we have some follow-up remarks from Zachary Kirkhorn.

非常感謝你。我們有一些來自 Zachary Kirkhorn 的後續評論。

Yes. Thanks, Martin, and thanks, Elon. Just to reiterate, Q2 was a great quarter for the Tesla team with strong improvements across the business. In particular, auto gross profit and margin, excluding credit, increased substantially. This was primarily driven by better cost optimization across our factories, good execution against our cost reduction plans as well as increases in production and delivery volumes.

是的。謝謝，馬丁，謝謝，埃隆。重申一下，第二季度對特斯拉團隊來說是一個很好的季度，整個業務都有很大的進步。特別是，不包括信貸在內的汽車毛利率和利潤率大幅增長。這主要是由於我們工廠的成本優化得到改善、成本降低計劃的良好執行以及生產和交付量的增加。

There was some benefit from pricing action mostly in North America. However, it was small in the context of the other contributors. Note that the Model S and X program was at a slight loss for the quarter due to the relatively low volume. And supply chain challenges, including expedites, continue to provide cost headwinds.

定價行動主要在北美有一些好處。但是，在其他貢獻者的背景下，它很小。請注意，由於銷量相對較低，Model S 和 X 計劃在本季度略有虧損。包括加急在內的供應鏈挑戰繼續帶來成本阻力。

Additionally, it's encouraging to see the progress made on profitability within our energy and services and other businesses. While there's some benefit to looking at our progress quarter-over-quarter, I find it more helpful to look at progress over a slightly long-term horizon. Over the last 2 years, our vehicle delivery volumes have more than doubled. This volume increase was made possible by a steady decrease in ASPs of more than 10%, driven by our road map to increase affordability and shifting mix towards our more affordable vehicles. Yet over that same period of time, our auto gross margin, excluding credit, has increased nearly 10 percentage points to our highest yet since the introduction of Model 3. This is only possible because our average cost per vehicle has reduced by more than the reduction in average price. This is a remarkable achievement in the context of the volume growth and ASP reduction, as mentioned, and a testament to the hard work by the Tesla team.

此外，看到我們的能源和服務以及其他業務在盈利能力方面取得的進展令人鼓舞。雖然查看我們的季度進展情況有一些好處，但我發現從稍微長期的角度來看進展情況更有幫助。在過去 2 年中，我們的車輛交付量增加了一倍多。這一銷量增長是由於平均售價穩步下降超過 10%，這是由我們提高可負擔性的路線圖推動的，並將組合轉向我們更實惠的車輛。然而，在同一時期，我們的汽車毛利率（不包括信貸）增長了近 10 個百分點，達到自推出 Model 3 以來的最高水平。這僅是因為我們每輛車的平均成本下降幅度超過了下降幅度在平均價格。如前所述，在銷量增長和平均售價下降的背景下，這是一項了不起的成就，也是特斯拉團隊辛勤工作的證明。

Additionally, OpEx as a percentage of revenue has declined and in particular, SG&A, representing the work we've done to become more efficient as we scale the company while still making the required R&D investments to support our future. As a result, our GAAP operating margins have risen from negative to double digit in line with what we have guided. By managing our overhead costs and driving higher volumes, our P&L is benefiting from the marginal profitability of each incremental unit, or said differently, we are recognizing the benefits of scale and improved fixed cost absorption.

此外，運營支出佔收入的百分比有所下降，特別是 SG&A，這代表了我們在擴大公司規模的同時提高效率的工作，同時仍進行必要的研發投資以支持我們的未來。結果，我們的 GAAP 營業利潤率從負數上升到兩位數，與我們的指導一致。通過管理我們的間接成本和推動更高的產量，我們的損益表受益於每個增量單位的邊際盈利能力，或者換句話說，我們正在認識到規模和改進固定成本吸收的好處。

With strong operating cash flows and cash balance, we are putting that cash to use. CapEx continues to tick up, primarily driven by capacity investments in Austin, Berlin and Shanghai. Additionally, each quarter, we are using our cash to retire legacy debt, which was taken on at a time when interest rates and company risks were much higher than in today's environment.

憑藉強勁的經營現金流和現金餘額，我們正在使用這些現金。資本支出繼續上升，主要受奧斯汀、柏林和上海產能投資的推動。此外，每個季度，我們都在使用我們的現金來償還遺留債務，這是在利率和公司風險遠高於當今環境的時候進行的。

As I've mentioned before, our 2021 volumes will skew towards the second half of the year as we push for continued sequential increases in volume. Despite the great work so far managing the instability of the supply chain, these challenges remain and are unfortunately increasing in pain with the higher volume. As we work through the uncertainty, we want to ensure we do our best to manage customer wait times as well as the impact these interruptions have on our employees and costs.

正如我之前提到的，隨著我們推動銷量持續連續增長，我們 2021 年的銷量將向下半年傾斜。儘管迄今為止在管理供應鏈的不穩定性方面做了大量工作，但這些挑戰仍然存在，不幸的是，隨著數量的增加，這些挑戰正在加劇。在我們應對不確定性的過程中，我們希望確保盡最大努力管理客戶等待時間以及這些中斷對我們的員工和成本的影響。

And as Elon mentioned, volume growth will be determined by part availability as we have the factory capacity ready and are in a strong demand position. I'm excited to see the progress made by the Tesla team as we continue building the business and strengthening our financials. Thank you very much.

正如埃隆所說，由於我們已經準備好工廠產能並且處於強勁的需求地位，因此銷量增長將取決於零件的可用性。我很高興看到特斯拉團隊在我們繼續發展業務和加強財務方面取得的進展。非常感謝你。

Great. Thank you very much, Zach. And now let's go through the retail investor questions on say.com.

偉大的。非常感謝，扎克。現在讓我們來看看 say.com 上的散戶投資者問題。

The first question from Robert M. is Tesla's website still says Cybertruck production is expected to begin in late 2021. Can Tesla share more details on the current status of the Cybertruck and confirm if production is still (technical difficulty) Lars, do you want to...

Robert M. 的第一個問題是特斯拉的網站仍然說 Cybertruck 預計將於 2021 年底開始生產。特斯拉能否分享更多關於 Cybertruck 目前狀態的細節，並確認生產是否仍然（技術難度） Lars，你想不想...

Sorry, we cut out there for a second. Yes, the Cybertruck is currently in its alpha stages. We finished the basic engineering, architecture of the vehicle. With the Cybertruck, we're redefining how the vehicle is being made. As Elon said, it carries much of the structural pack and large casting designs of the Model Y being built in Berlin and Austin. Obviously, those take priority over the Cybertruck, but we are moving into the beta phases of Cybertruck later this year, and we'll be looking to ramp that in production in Giga Texas after Model Y is up and going.

對不起，我們停在那裡一秒鐘。是的，Cybertruck 目前處於 alpha 階段。我們完成了車輛的基本工程和架構。借助 Cybertruck，我們重新定義了車輛的製造方式。正如埃隆所說，它承載了正在柏林和奧斯汀建造的 Model Y 的大部分結構包和大型鑄件設計。顯然，這些優先於 Cybertruck，但我們將在今年晚些時候進入 Cybertruck 的測試階段，在 Model Y 啟動和運行後，我們將尋求在 Giga Texas 的生產中增加它。

Yes, just worth reemphasizing that the extraordinarily difficult -- extraordinary difficulty of ramping production of large manufacturing items. The risk of being repetitive, it's actually easy to make prototypes or sort of handle small volume production. But anything produced at high volume, which is really what's relevant here, is it's going to move as fast as the slowest of the, say, at rough order of magnitude, 10,000 unique parts and processes.

是的，值得再次強調的是，增加大型製造項目的生產非常困難——非常困難。重複的風險，實際上很容易製作原型或處理小批量生產。但是任何大批量生產的東西，在這裡真正相關的是，它的移動速度與最慢的一樣快，比如說，大約有 10,000 個獨特的零件和工藝。

And so you can have 9,999, which is 1 is missing. I mean we were missing -- for example, like a big struggle this quarter was the module that controls the airbags and the seatbelts. And obviously, you cannot ship a car without those. And that limited our production severely worldwide in Shanghai and in Fremont. So it -- like it wouldn't have mattered if we had like 17 different car models because they won't need the airbag module, so it's irrelevant.

所以你可以有 9,999，缺少 1。我的意思是我們錯過了——例如，本季度的一場大斗爭是控制安全氣囊和安全帶的模塊。顯然，沒有這些，你就不能運送汽車。這嚴重限制了我們在上海和弗里蒙特的全球生產。所以它——就像我們有 17 種不同的車型一樣，因為它們不需要安全氣囊模塊，所以這無關緊要。

So the -- in order for Cybertruck and Semi to scale to volume that's meaningful for customer deliveries, we've got to solve the chip shortage or working with our suppliers and people just want to say, "Why don't you just build a chip fab?" Okay, well, okay, that would take us, even moving like lightning, 12 to 18 months. So it's not like you can just whip out a chip fab, just like, yes, I'll just make a quick chip fab.

所以——為了讓 Cybertruck 和 Semi 擴大規模，對客戶交付有意義，我們必須解決芯片短缺問題或與我們的供應商合作，人們只想說，“你為什麼不建立一個芯片廠？”好吧，好吧，這將需要我們 12 到 18 個月，甚至像閃電一樣移動。因此，你不能只製造一個芯片工廠，就像，是的，我只會製造一個快速的芯片工廠。

So some of these things are -- yes, anyway. It is quite a trial dealing with all of the constraints of scaling a large manufactured object. I think it may be the case that Tesla is scaling. It's -- I think we might be the fastest in history ever for scaling a large manufactured object. I think maybe the Model T would have been comparable back in the day, the Ford Model T. Probably, the Internet knows the answer. But I think we may be scaling large manufactured object at the fastest rate in history. Or I'd like to know who did it faster, so we can learn from them. So it's worth just noting that, and in the grand scheme of things, it's not bad.

所以其中一些是——是的，無論如何。處理縮放大型製造對象的所有限制是一項相當大的嘗試。我認為特斯拉可能正在擴大規模。這是 - 我認為我們可能是有史以來規模最大的製造對象的最快速度。我想也許 T 型車在當時可以與福特 T 型車相媲美。互聯網可能知道答案。但我認為我們可能正在以歷史上最快的速度擴展大型製造對象。或者我想知道誰做得更快，所以我們可以向他們學習。所以值得一提的是，從總體上看，這還不錯。

So yes, so Cybertruck and Semi, actually both are heavy users of cell capacity. So we've got to make sure we have the cell capacity for those 2 vehicles or it's kind of pointless. We can make a small number of vehicles, but the effective cost if you make a small number of vehicles is the same. Like they literally cost like $1 million a piece or more. There's a reason why you do things at volume production, which is to get the economies of scale that get us down.

所以是的，Cybertruck 和 Semi 實際上都是電池容量的重度用戶。所以我們必須確保我們有這 2 輛車的電池容量，否則這毫無意義。我們可以製造少量車輛，但如果您製造少量車輛，有效成本是相同的。就像他們字面意思一樣，每件要花費 100 萬美元或更多。批量生產是有原因的，那就是獲得讓我們失望的規模經濟。

So we are looking at a pretty massive increase in cell availability next year, but it's not like in January 1. It comes through -- it ramps up through the course of next year. But even without Tesla -- Tesla's (technical difficulty) Hello? Okay. Even without Tesla cell production, we believe our suppliers will be able to deliver about twice as much cell output in next year as this year. And Drew, do you want to talk more about that?

因此，我們正在考慮明年電池可用性會大幅增加，但它不像 1 月 1 日那樣。它實現了——它在明年的整個過程中都會增加。但即使沒有特斯拉——特斯拉的（技術難度）你好？好的。即使沒有特斯拉電池生產，我們相信我們的供應商明年的電池產量也將是今年的兩倍。德魯，你想多談談嗎？

Yes, given concerns over cells bottlenecking growth, our target is to grow cell supply ahead of the 50% year-on-year growth targets of the vehicle business and also enable increased energy storage deployments. So yes, our cell suppliers are tracking to double their production in 2022.

是的，鑑於對電池增長瓶頸的擔憂，我們的目標是在汽車業務同比增長 50% 的目標之前增加電池供應，並增加儲能部署。所以是的，我們的電池供應商正計劃在 2022 年將產量翻一番。

Yes. It's worth thing like if you have a target of a certain number, that doesn't mean it happens like as sure as night follows day. It's a target. So if there is some calamity in the world that it drops the supply chain, then it will be less. But the contracts that we have with cell suppliers quote roughly a doubling of cell supply to Tesla in 2022.

是的。值得一提的是，如果你有一個特定數字的目標，這並不意味著它會像白天一樣肯定會發生。這是一個目標。因此，如果世界上發生了供應鏈中斷的災難，那麼它就會減少。但我們與電池供應商簽訂的合同中提到，2022 年特斯拉的電池供應量大約翻了一番。

And we have to juggle these exponential -- there's a whole bunch of exponential graphs sort of overlay on top of each other, and small changes in where you are on the X axis of time can quite substantially change the area under the curve. So what we're thinking of doing is like depending on -- it's basically overshooting on cell supply for vehicles, and then as we have, say, excess cell supply in 1 month or another, then routing that cell output to the Megapack and Powerwall. Oh by the -- if we're -- prior to [taking] vehicle production, if there's a shortage of cell output, for some reason, then we will throttle down Megapack and Powerwall production. So it will be something's got to give basically.

我們必須兼顧這些指數——有一大堆指數圖相互疊加，你在時間 X 軸上的位置的微小變化可以相當大地改變曲線下的面積。所以我們正在考慮做的事情就像取決於——它基本上是車輛的電池供應過衝，然後我們有，比如說，在 1 個月或更長時間內，電池供應過剩，然後將電池輸出路由到 Megapack 和 Powerwall .哦，如果我們在 [採取] 車輛生產之前，如果由於某種原因電池產量短缺，那麼我們將限制 Megapack 和 Powerwall 的生產。所以這基本上是必須要付出的。

Or if there's a disruption to vehicle production, you have an outlet for the cell capacity.

或者，如果車輛生產中斷，您就有了電池容量的出路。

Yes, exactly. There's a tremendous amount of inertia in the supply chain. So if we say to a supplier we want you to double cell output, well, even doing that in a year is very difficult. And then that system has a tremendous amount of momentum. It is like a [plateau] of supertankers. It's insane.

對，就是這樣。供應鏈中存在巨大的慣性。因此，如果我們對供應商說我們希望您將電池產量翻倍，那麼即使在一年內做到這一點也非常困難。然後該系統具有巨大的動力。它就像一個超級油輪的[高原]。這太瘋狂了。

Speaking of which, from a raw materials perspective, we also have long-term contracts to secure our supply chain to also enable its growth. So we're not just looking at the suppliers but upstream from there.

說到這一點，從原材料的角度來看，我們也有長期合同來確保我們的供應鏈也能實現增長。因此，我們不僅關注供應商，還關注上游。

Yes.

是的。

Which has more flow to it.

哪個有更多的流量。

Yes, exactly. As mentioned, things will move as fast as the slowest part of the entire supply chain, which goes all the way back to raw materials, lithium and nickel and that kind of thing. And there's sometimes perception that Tesla uses a lot of cobalt, but we actually don't. Apple uses, I think, almost 100% cobalt in their batteries in cellphones, laptops. But Tesla uses no cobalt in the iron phosphate packs and almost none in the nickel-based chemistries. So on a weighted average basis, we might use 2% cobalt compared to the Apple's 100% cobalt.

對，就是這樣。如前所述，事情的發展速度將與整個供應鏈中最慢的部分一樣快，這會一直追溯到原材料、鋰和鎳之類的東西。有時人們認為特斯拉使用了大量的鈷，但我們實際上並沒有。我認為，蘋果在手機、筆記本電腦的電池中使用了幾乎 100% 的鈷。但特斯拉在磷酸鐵包中不使用鈷，在鎳基化學品中也幾乎不使用。因此，在加權平均基礎上，我們可能會使用 2% 的鈷，而 Apple 使用 100% 的鈷。

Anyway, so it's just -- it's really just not a fact. We expect to basically have 0 cobalt in the future. So I do -- maybe with -- I think probably there is a long-term shift more in the direction of iron-based lithium-ion cells over nickel. As the energy density of sort of iron ore or the iron phosphate -- might as well just call it iron. The phosphate is taken for granted. But iron-based cells, lithium-ion cells and nickel-based lithium-ion cells, I think probably we'll see a shift. My guess is probably to 2/3 iron, 1/3 nickel or something on that order.

無論如何，所以它只是 - 這真的不是一個事實。我們預計未來鈷基本為0。所以我這樣做——也許是——我認為可能在鐵基鋰離子電池的方向上會有一個長期的轉變，而不是鎳。作為某種鐵礦石或磷酸鐵的能量密度——不妨稱之為鐵。磷酸鹽被認為是理所當然的。但鐵基電池、鋰離子電池和鎳基鋰離子電池，我認為我們可能會看到轉變。我的猜測可能是 2/3 鐵，1/3 鎳或其他東西。

And this is actually good because there's plenty of iron in the world. There's an insane amount of iron. But nickel is -- there's much less nickel, and there's way less cobalt. So it is good for relieving the long-term scaling to move to iron-based cells mostly. And I think long term, possibly all -- there's a good chance that all stationary storage, that is Powerwall and Megapack, moves iron, which is most likely the case since you do not need to transport it and there's [less volume that match] constraint for stationary storage. So then nickel would be for -- really for long-range road transport, ships and aircraft, that kind of thing.

這實際上很好，因為世界上有很多鐵。有大量的鐵。但是鎳是——鎳少得多，鈷也少得多。因此，主要轉向鐵基電池有利於緩解長期結垢。而且我認為從長遠來看，可能是所有 - 所有固定存儲設備，即 Powerwall 和 Megapack，很有可能會移動鐵，這很可能是這種情況，因為您不需要運輸它並且 [匹配的容量更少]固定存儲的約束。那麼鎳將用於 - 真正用於遠程公路運輸、船舶和飛機之類的東西。

Thank you. Let's go to the second question from retail, which is Elon has said that Tesla will be opening up the Supercharger network to other EVs later this year. Can you share some more details on how this will be structured? Will this be at select brands? Or will they contribute to the growth of this network?

謝謝你。讓我們回到零售業的第二個問題，即埃隆曾表示，特斯拉將在今年晚些時候向其他電動汽車開放超級充電站網絡。你能分享更多關於如何構建的細節嗎？這會出現在特定品牌嗎？或者他們會為這個網絡的發展做出貢獻嗎？

Yes. We're currently thinking it's a real simple thing where you just download the Tesla app and you go to a Supercharger, and you just indicate which stall you're in. So you plug in your car even if it's not Tesla, and then you just access the app and say turn on this stall that I'm in for how much electricity. And this should basically work with, I think, almost any manufacturer's cars.

是的。我們目前認為這是一件非常簡單的事情，你只需下載 Tesla 應用程序，然後去一個增壓器，你只需指出你在哪個檔位。所以即使不是特斯拉，你也可以插上你的車，然後你只需訪問該應用程序並說打開我所在的這個攤位即可獲得多少電。我認為，這基本上應該適用於幾乎所有製造商的汽車。

There will be a time constraint. So if the charge rate is super slow, then somebody will be charged more because the biggest constraint at the Superchargers is time, how occupied is the stall. And we'll also be smarter with how we charge for electricity at the Superchargers. So rush hour charging will be more expensive than off hours charging because there are times when the Superchargers are empty and times when they're jampacked. And so it makes sense to have some time-based discrimination.

會有時間限制。因此，如果充電速度非常慢，那麼有人會被收取更多費用，因為在增壓器上最大的限制是時間，而停車位的佔用程度。我們也將更聰明地了解我們如何在超級充電站充電。因此，高峰時間充電將比非工作時間充電更昂貴，因為有時增壓器是空的，有時它們會被塞滿。因此，有一些基於時間的歧視是有道理的。

Yes. We've been doing that, and it's been working and people respond. It helps with utilization.

是的。我們一直在這樣做，它一直在起作用，人們做出了回應。它有助於利用。

Yes, exactly. So yes, I think we're -- in Europe and China and most parts of the world, it's the same connector for everyone. So this is a fairly easy thing to do, develop our own connector, which, in my opinion, is actually the best connector. It's small and light, looks good, so standard. So we developed our own connector, which in my opinion, is actually the best connector. It's small and light, looks good.

對，就是這樣。所以是的，我認為我們 - 在歐洲、中國和世界大部分地區，每個人都是同一個連接器。所以這是一件相當容易的事情，開發我們自己的連接器，在我看來，這實際上是最好的連接器。它又小又輕，看起來不錯，很標準。所以我們開發了自己的連接器，在我看來，它實際上是最好的連接器。它又小又輕，看起來不錯。

So an adapter is needed to work for EVs in North America. But people could buy this adapter, and we anticipate having it available at the Superchargers as well if people don't sort of steal them or something.

因此，北美的電動汽車需要適配器。但是人們可以購買這個適配器，我們預計如果人們不偷它們或其他東西，它也可以在增壓器上使用。

We have a good solution for that.

我們有一個很好的解決方案。

Okay. So -- but that is -- that's a constraint on North America thing. That's basically a vestige of history. But I think we do want to emphasize that it is -- our goal is to support the advent of sustainable energy. It is not to create a walled garden and use that to bludgeon our competitors, which is sometimes used by some companies.

好的。所以 - 但那是 - 這是對北美事物的限制。這基本上是歷史的遺跡。但我認為我們確實想強調它是——我們的目標是支持可持續能源的出現。這不是要創建一個有圍牆的花園並用它來打擊我們的競爭對手，某些公司有時會使用它。

I think it's also important to comment that increasing the utilization of the network actually reduces our costs, which allows us to lower charging prices for all customers, makes the network more profitable, allows us to grow the network faster. So that's a good thing there. And no matter what, we're going to continue to aggressively expand the network capacity, increasing charging speeds, improving the trip planning tools to protect against site congestion using dynamic pricing, as Elon mentioned, and just continuing to focus on minimum wait time for all customers.

我認為同樣重要的是要評論提高網絡的利用率實際上降低了我們的成本，這使我們能夠降低所有客戶的收費價格，使網絡更有利可圖，使我們能夠更快地發展網絡。所以這是一件好事。無論如何，我們將繼續積極擴大網絡容量，提高充電速度，改進旅行計劃工具，使用動態定價防止站點擁塞，正如 Elon 所說，並繼續專注於最短等待時間所有客戶。

Yes. Obviously, in order for this to be -- for the Supercharger to be useful to other power companies, Lars, we need to grow the network faster than we're growing vehicle output, which is not easy. We're growing vehicle output at a hell of a rate. So Superchargers need to grow faster than vehicle output, so this is a lot of work for the Supercharger team. But it is only useful in the grand scheme of things. It's only useful to the public if we're able to grow faster than Tesla vehicle output. So that is our goal.

是的。顯然，為了讓 Supercharger 對其他電力公司有用，Lars，我們需要以比增加車輛輸出速度更快的速度發展網絡，這並不容易。我們正在以極快的速度增長汽車產量。所以 Supercharger 需要比車輛產量增長得更快，所以這對 Supercharger 團隊來說是很多工作。但它只在宏偉的計劃中有用。只有當我們的增長速度超過特斯拉汽車產量時，它才會對公眾有用。這就是我們的目標。

Thank you very much. And the third question is Elon said 4680 cells aren't reliable enough for vehicles. Is this referring to cycle life degradation or something else? Please update us on progress of 4680s? And what still needs to be done to make them reliable enough for vehicles?

非常感謝你。第三個問題是 Elon 說 4680 電池對車輛來說不夠可靠。這是指循環壽命退化還是其他什麼？請向我們介紹 4680 的進展情況？還需要做些什麼才能使它們對車輛足夠可靠？

Yes. I mean, really, this is about -- we'll definitely make the 4680 reliable enough for vehicles. And we, I think, are at the point where, in limited volume, it is reliable enough for vehicles. The -- again, going back to like limited production is easier. Prototype production is easy, but high-volume production is hard. There are a number of challenges in transitioning from small-scale production to a large-volume production.

是的。我的意思是，真的，這是關於——我們肯定會讓 4680 對車輛足夠可靠。我認為，我們正處於這樣的地步，在有限的數量下，它對車輛來說足夠可靠。 - 再次，回到有限的生產更容易。原型生產很容易，但大批量生產卻很難。從小規模生產過渡到大批量生產存在許多挑戰。

And not to get too much into the weeds of things, but right now, we have a challenge with basically the, what's called calendaring or basically squashing the cathode material to a particular height. So it just goes through these welders and get squashed like pizza dough basically and -- but very hard pizza dough. And the -- it's causing -- it's denting the calendar rolls. This is not something that happened when the calendar rolls were smaller, but it is happening when the calendar rolls are bigger. So just like -- we're like, okay, weren't expecting that.

並且不要過多地研究雜草，但是現在，我們基本上面臨著一個挑戰，即所謂的壓延或基本上將陰極材料壓扁到特定高度。所以它只是通過這些焊工，基本上像披薩麵團一樣被壓扁——但是非常硬的披薩麵團。而且 - 它正在導致 - 它使日曆卷凹凸不平。這不是在日曆卷較小時發生的事情，而是在日曆卷較大時發生的。所以就像 - 我們就像，好吧，沒想到會這樣。

Yes. It's not a like science problem. It's an engineering problem. It's not a question of if. It's a question of when, and the team is 100% focused on resolving these limiting processes as quickly as possible.

是的。這不是一個類似的科學問題。這是一個工程問題。這不是是否的問題。這是一個時間問題，團隊 100% 專注於盡快解決這些限制性流程。

Exactly.

確切地。

Yes. And on the reliability side, as Elon mentioned, we have successfully validated performance and the lifetime durability of the 4680 cells produced for Kato. And we're continuing ongoing verification of that reliability. We're actually accruing over 1 million equivalent miles on our cells that we produce every month in our testing activities. The focus on that is very clear. We want high-quality cells for all of our customers.

是的。在可靠性方面，正如 Elon 所提到的，我們已經成功驗證了為 Kato 生產的 4680 電池的性能和使用壽命。我們正在繼續驗證這種可靠性。實際上，我們在測試活動中每個月生產的電池上累積了超過 100 萬英里的等效里程。這方面的重點非常明確。我們希望為所有客戶提供高質量的電池。

And yes, we're just focused on the unlucky, limiting steps in the facility. And with the engineers focused on those few steps remaining, we're going to break through as fast as possible.

是的，我們只關注設施中不幸的、限制性的步驟。隨著工程師們專注於剩下的那幾個步驟，我們將盡快突破。

In the meantime, we're -- we have a massive amount of equipment on order and arriving for the high-volume cell production in Austin and Berlin. And -- but obviously, given what we've learned with the pilot plant, which is in Fremont, which is really quite a big plant by most standards, we will have to modify a bunch of that equipment. So it won't be able to start like immediately, but it seems like -- I mean, Drew, correct me if I'm wrong, but like we think most likely, we will hit an annualized rate of 100 gigawatt hours a year sometime next year.

與此同時，我們正在訂購大量設備，並將用於奧斯汀和柏林的大批量電池生產。而且——但顯然，鑑於我們在弗里蒙特的試點工廠所學到的知識，按照大多數標準，這確實是一個相當大的工廠，我們將不得不修改一堆設備。所以它不能立即開始，但似乎——我的意思是，Drew，如果我錯了，請糾正我，但就像我們認為的最有可能的那樣，我們將達到每年 100 吉瓦時的年化率明年某個時候。

We'll have all the equipment installed to accomplish 100 gigawatt hours. And it's possible that by the end of the year, we will be at an annualized rate of 100 gigawatt hours by the end of the year.

我們將安裝完成 100 吉瓦時的所有設備。到今年年底，我們的年化發電量可能會達到 100 吉瓦時。

Yes. I mean my guess is, more likely than not, about 50% of reaching 100 gigawatt hours a year by the end of next year on an annualized rate, something like that. It could shift by a little bit, so -- but nothing -- as Drew mentioned, it's nothing fundamental. Just a lot of work.

是的。我的意思是，我的猜測很可能是，到明年年底，每年達到 100 吉瓦時的年化率大約有 50%，類似這樣。它可能會改變一點，所以——但沒有——正如德魯所說，這不是根本性的。只是很多工作。

Yes. And even to the large roller question, Elon, right, like on the anode side, the large rollers were great, no concerns. And so we're just learning as we go. And the nice thing about having that facility on the fast track like we had it and we talked about it at Battery Day was really derisking the big factories here. That's what we've done, and we've learned a lot. And with each successive iteration, the ramp-up and the equipment installation will be faster and more [safe].

是的。甚至對於大滾筒問題，埃隆，對，就像在陽極側一樣，大滾筒很棒，不用擔心。所以我們只是邊走邊學。像我們在電池日上討論過的那樣，在快車道上擁有該設施的好處確實是在貶低這裡的大工廠。這就是我們所做的，我們學到了很多東西。並且隨著每一次連續的迭代，加速和設備安裝將更快、更[安全]。

Yes.

是的。

All right. Thank you very much. And the last question from retail is from Emmet. Can Elon do an interview with one of our YouTube channels once or twice a year? I would nominate Dave Lee on Investing or Rob Mauer's Tesla Daily channels as first possible candidates.

好的。非常感謝你。零售業的最後一個問題來自 Emmet。 Elon 可以每年對我們的一個 YouTube 頻道進行一次或兩次採訪嗎？我會提名 Dave Lee on Investing 或 Rob Mauer 的 Tesla Daily 頻道作為第一個可能的候選人。

Yes. I guess I'll do an interview. I mean, just bear in mind, like if I'm doing interviews, then I can't do actual other work. So it's not -- I only have so much time in the day, so -- but yes, I'll do one. I won't do it annually, but I'll do it once.

是的。我想我會去面試。我的意思是，請記住，如果我在做採訪，那麼我就不能做其他實際的工作。所以不是——我一天只有這麼多時間，所以——但是是的，我會做一個。我不會每年做一次，但我會做一次。

I think also like this is the, I wouldn't say the last time I'll do earnings calls, but this is the -- I will no longer be defaults during earnings calls. So obviously, I'll do the annual shareholder meeting, but I think going forward, I will most likely not be on earnings calls unless there's something really important that I need to say.

我認為也是這樣，我不會說我最後一次進行財報電話會議，但這是 - 在財報電話會議期間我將不再違約。所以很明顯，我會召開年度股東大會，但我認為未來我很可能不會參加財報電話會議，除非有一些非常重要的事情我需要說。

Okay. Thank you. Now let's go to institutional questions. The first one -- and we covered a lot of this already. Can you please update us on time lines for the start of production of Berlin and Austin Model Y, Cybertruck and the Semi? Do you expect the ramp of Cybertruck to be as difficult as it is a new process?

好的。謝謝你。現在讓我們談談制度問題。第一個——我們已經介紹了很多。您能否介紹一下柏林和奧斯汀 Model Y、Cybertruck 和 Semi 開始生產的時間表？您認為 Cybertruck 的坡道會像新流程一樣困難嗎？

I think Cybertruck ramp will be difficult because it's such a new architecture. I mean it's going to be a great product. It might, I think, be our best product ever. But it -- there's a lot of fundamentally new design ideas on Cybertruck. Nobody's ever really made a car like this before, a vehicle like this before. So there'll probably be challenges because there's so much unexplored territory. Yes.

我認為 Cybertruck 坡道會很困難，因為它是一個全新的架構。我的意思是這將是一個偉大的產品。我認為它可能是我們有史以來最好的產品。但是它——Cybertruck 上有很多全新的設計理念。以前沒有人真正製造過像這樣的汽車，像這樣的汽車。所以可能會有挑戰，因為有很多未開發的領域。是的。

Thank you. I think question 2 and question 3, we can skip given we have already addressed this. I'll go to question 4. In 5 years' time, how much faster or better could you be at manufacturing capacity expansion using cut and paste? And what are the biggest issues you need to solve to get to that rate?

謝謝你。我認為問題 2 和問題 3，我們可以跳過，因為我們已經解決了這個問題。我會回答第 4 個問題。在 5 年的時間裡，您在使用剪切和粘貼的方式擴展製造能力方面能更快或更好多少？要達到這個速度，您需要解決的最大問題是什麼？

Well, like I said, I think we might be the fastest growing company in history for any large manufactured items. So those who have not actually been involved in the manufacturing ramp-up just have no idea how painful and difficult it is. It's like you got to eat a lot of glass, and for [auto] manufacturing ramp, it's hard.

好吧，就像我說的，我認為我們可能是歷史上任何大型製造產品增長最快的公司。所以那些沒有真正參與過製造業加速的人根本不知道這是多麼痛苦和困難。這就像你要吃很多玻璃，而對於 [汽車] 製造斜坡來說，這很難。

Yes. I mean I think if you look at the expansion we've done in Shanghai, that factory was built in less in a year and ramped in 5 to 6 months to full volume. When you...

是的。我的意思是，如果你看看我們在上海所做的擴張，那家工廠在一年內建成，並在 5 到 6 個月內達到滿負荷生產。當你...

I think it's longer than that. It's longer than that, about a year.

我認為它比這更長。比這更長，大約一年。

And when you consider cut and paste, we've repeated that in Fremont and whatever. But now with Berlin and Austin, we have new factories and new designs. And so there's always challenges, as you said, Elon, with new designs in ramping that. But I think having teams in 3 locations or 3 continents will definitely expand our ability and our capacity to grow more lines rather than just having the 1 factory in Fremont that we had 1.5 years ago.

當你考慮剪切和粘貼時，我們已經在弗里蒙特和其他地方重複了這一點。但現在有了柏林和奧斯汀，我們有了新工廠和新設計。所以總是有挑戰，正如你所說，埃隆，新的設計正在加速這一點。但我認為在 3 個地點或 3 個大洲擁有團隊肯定會擴大我們的能力和發展更多生產線的能力，而不是像 1.5 年前在弗里蒙特擁有 1 個工廠。

Yes. So I mean, for Shanghai, incredible team both the factory in 11 months, but it took longer than building the factory because it took longer than that to actually reach volume production -- a high-volume production, so took about a year. So when you put a factory in a new geography, in order for that factory to be efficient, you have to localize the supply chain. So there's no such thing as cut and paste. It does not exist.

是的。所以我的意思是，對於上海來說，令人難以置信的團隊在 11 個月內完成了工廠的建設，但比建造工廠花費的時間更長，因為實際達到量產需要更長的時間——大批量生產，所以花了大約一年的時間。因此，當您將工廠置於新的地理位置時，為了使該工廠高效，您必須將供應鏈本地化。所以沒有剪切和粘貼之類的東西。它不存在。

And it obviously be insane to do vehicle production in Europe but send vast numbers of parts from North America. That would be -- that would make the producing in Europe, for example, just crazy. You've got to localize the supply chain to have efficiency and then you're moving as fast as your least lucky, least good supplier.

在歐洲生產汽車，卻從北美運送大量零部件，顯然是很瘋狂的。那將是 - 例如，這將使歐洲的製作變得瘋狂。您必須本地化供應鏈以提高效率，然後您的行動速度與最不幸運、最不優秀的供應商一樣快。

Yes. It's only supply chains where you go like 3 or 4 layers deep. It's frankly -- I feel at times that we are inheriting all force majeure or -- so if anything goes wrong anywhere on Earth, something happens to mess up the supply chain. So yes. Yes.

是的。只有供應鏈有 3 或 4 層深。坦率地說——我有時覺得我們正在繼承所有不可抗力，或者——所以如果地球上的任何地方出現任何問題，供應鏈就會發生混亂。所以是的。是的。

I think the human capital growth though of having factories here, Berlin, Shanghai, Fremont does allow us to maybe not exponentially grow but, well, hopefully grow.

我認為，雖然在柏林、上海、弗里蒙特等地設有工廠，但人力資本的增長確實讓我們可能不會呈指數級增長，但希望增長。

We are exponentially growing.

我們正在成倍增長。

Yes, hopefully maintain that exponential growth.

是的，希望保持這種指數增長。

Yes. So yes. It's also -- it takes a while to hire old people and train old people to operate the factory. The factory is like a giant cybernetic collective, and you can't just hire 10,000 people and have them work instantly. It's not possible. I really encourage more people to get involved in manufacturing.

是的。所以是的。這也是——僱傭老人和培訓老人經營工廠需要一段時間。工廠就像一個巨大的控制論集體，你不能只僱傭 10,000 人並讓他們立即工作。這是不可能的。我真的鼓勵更多的人參與製造。

I think especially in the U.S., like this has just not been an area where all that many smart people have gone into. I think U.S. has an overallocation of talent in finance and law. It's both a criticism and a compliment. I'm not saying we shouldn't have people in finance and law. I'm just saying that this might be -- maybe we have too many smart people in those areas. So...

我認為尤其是在美國，像這樣的地區並不是所有聰明人都涉足的領域。我認為美國在金融和法律方面的人才配置過多。這既是批評，也是讚美。我並不是說我們不應該有金融和法律領域的人。我只是說這可能是——也許我們在這些領域有太多聰明人。所以...

Manufacturing is fun.

製造很有趣。

Yes, manufacturing is great. It's a very interesting problem to solve. And obviously, you can't have stuff unless someone makes it. That's how we kick this up. Yes.

是的，製造業很棒。這是一個非常有趣的問題。顯然，除非有人製造，否則您將無法擁有東西。這就是我們如何開始的。是的。

Okay. Thank you very much. And let's go to the last investor question. Does Tesla plan to offer more services beyond FSD or high-speed connectivity as part of its subscription bundle going forward? What areas, in particular, present an opportunity?

好的。非常感謝你。讓我們回到最後一個投資者問題。特斯拉是否計劃在未來的訂閱包中提供除 FSD 或高速連接之外的更多服務？特別是哪些領域提供了機會？

Yes. We don't have a lot of ideas on this, to be frank. Really, full self-driving is the main thing. Things are obviously headed towards a fully autonomous electric vehicle future. And I think Tesla is well positioned and, frankly, is the leader objectively in both of those arenas, electrification and autonomy.

是的。坦率地說，我們對此沒有很多想法。真的，全自動駕駛是主要的。事情顯然正朝著全自動電動汽車的未來發展。我認為特斯拉處於有利地位，坦率地說，在電氣化和自動駕駛這兩個領域客觀上都是領導者。

So it's always tempting to try to find analogies, but -- with other companies or whatever, but really the value of fully electric autonomous fleet is generally gigantic, boggles the mind really. So that will be one of the most valuable things that is ever done in the history of civilization.

因此，試圖找到類比總是很誘人，但是——與其他公司或其他公司一樣，但真正的全電動自動駕駛車隊的價值通常是巨大的，真的令人難以置信。因此，這將是文明史上最有價值的事情之一。

Thank you very much. And now let's go back to analyst Q&A, please.

非常感謝你。現在讓我們回到分析師問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

我們的第一個問題來自 Colin Rusch 和 Oppenheimer。

Can you speak to the attach rates for FSD so far and what you're targeting in terms of the subscription levels?

您能否談談到目前為止 FSD 的附加費率以及您在訂閱級別方面的目標？

Yes. It's not worth commenting on right now. It's not meaningful. We really need full self-driving, at least the beta, to be widely available, so anyone who wants it can get it. Otherwise, it'd be pointless to read anything into where things are right now. So, yes.

是的。現在不值得評論。這沒有意義。我們真的需要完全自動駕駛，至少是測試版，才能被廣泛使用，所以任何想要它的人都可以得到它。否則，將任何內容讀入當前的位置是毫無意義的。所以，是的。

Okay. And then just the follow-up there is about the cadence of the regulatory environment keeping up with the technology. Are you seeing meaningful evolution in terms of the regulators really understanding the technology and beginning to set some standards here sometime in the near term?

好的。然後是關於監管環境跟上技術的節奏的後續行動。您是否看到監管機構真正了解該技術並在短期內開始在這裡設定一些標準方面的有意義的演變？

At least in the U.S., we don't see regulation as a fundamental limiter. We've got -- we're obviously going to make the work and then demonstrate that the reliability is significantly in excess of the average human driver for it to be allowed -- for people to be able to use it without paying attention to the road.

至少在美國，我們不認為監管是一個根本性的限制因素。我們已經 - 我們顯然要完成這項工作，然後證明其可靠性大大超過了允許的平均人類駕駛員 - 讓人們能夠在不注意的情況下使用它路。

But I think we have a massive fleet, so it will be, I think, straightforward to make the argument on statistical grounds just based on the number of interventions or especially interventions that would result in a crash. At scale, we think we'll have [billions] of miles of travel to be able to show that it is the safety of the car with autopilot on is 100% or 200% or more safer than the average human driver. At that point, I think it would be unconscionable to -- not to allow autopilot because the car just comes way less safe.

但我認為我們擁有一支龐大的機隊，因此我認為，僅根據干預措施的數量或特別是會導致墜機的干預措施的數量，直接根據統計數據進行論證。在規模上，我們認為我們將有 [數十億] 英里的旅行能夠證明自動駕駛汽車的安全性比普通人類駕駛員安全 100% 或 200% 或更高。到那時，我認為不允許自動駕駛儀是不合情理的，因為汽車的安全性較低。

It will be sort of like if you take the elevator analogy. Back in the day, you used to have elevator operators with like a big sort of switch that operates the elevator and moves between floors. But they get tired or maybe drunk or something or distracted, and every time and again, somebody would be kind of sheared in half between floors. That's kind of the situation we have with cars. Autonomy will become so safe that it will be unsafe to manually operate the car, relatively speaking.

如果你拿電梯做比喻，這有點像。過去，您曾經讓電梯操作員使用類似一種大型開關來操作電梯並在樓層之間移動。但他們累了，或者喝醉了，或者分心了，一次又一次，有人會在樓層之間被剪成兩半。這就是我們在汽車方面的情況。相對而言，自主性會變得如此安全，以至於手動操作汽車是不安全的。

And today, obviously, we just get in an elevator. We press the button for which floor we want, and it just takes us there safely. And it would be quite alarming if elevators were operated by a person with a giant switch. That's how we'll be with cars.

而今天，顯然，我們只是進了電梯。我們按下我們想要的樓層的按鈕，它只是把我們安全地帶到那裡。如果電梯是由一個擁有巨大開關的人操作的，那將是相當令人震驚的。這就是我們對汽車的看法。

Next question comes from Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

Your cost of goods sold per vehicle is already down to the mid-$37,000 range in the quarter. It's down $5,000 year-over-year despite some of the inefficiencies that you talked about. And I know that a lot is going to change from here just given how mix is going to evolve. But if you're successful on the structural pack and front and rear castings and the launch of the 4680 cell, can you just maybe give us a sense of what a successful outcome would look like maybe a year from now? Obviously, a lot has to go right. But just any kind of broad framework for us to think about?

本季度，您每輛車的銷售成本已降至 37,000 美元左右。儘管您談到了一些低效率，但它還是同比下降了 5,000 美元。而且我知道，考慮到混合的發展方式，很多事情都會從這裡發生變化。但是，如果您在結構包和前後鑄件以及 4680 電池的推出方面取得了成功，您能否讓我們了解一下一年後的成功結果會是什麼樣子？顯然，很多事情都要做對。但是，我們可以考慮任何一種廣泛的框架嗎？

Yes. It's really difficult for us to -- to make specific predictions, it's very difficult. I think we feel confident of, let's say, at least a 50% growth year-over-year next year and maybe it's 100%, but that's -- you need a lot of crystal balls to figure out exactly what it's going to be. And we're just -- it is literally impossible to make a specific prediction. But at least 50%, maybe 100%, something like that.

是的。我們真的很難——做出具體的預測，非常困難。我認為我們有信心，比方說，明年至少同比增長 50%，也許是 100%，但那是 - 你需要大量的水晶球來弄清楚它到底會是什麼。我們只是——實際上不可能做出具體的預測。但至少 50%，也許 100%，類似的。

Okay. And maybe just separately from this, can you just clarify what the status is of some of the advances in battery manufacturing, things like dry cathode mixing that you talked about on Battery Day? What's the time line? How are those evolving?

好的。也許與此分開，您能否澄清一下電池製造方面的一些進步的狀態，例如您在電池日談到的干式陰極混合？時間線是什麼？那些是如何進化的？

Yes. We commented on it today already actually. But in the facility at Kato, over 90% of the -- like processes have demonstrated rate there, but we are limited by the unlucky few that have not, and that's what we're working on. One of them that Elon mentioned was running the full-scale cathode calendar. We're working through some improvements that we need to make to that equipment and to the actual raw material itself to not have those limitations. But again, it's an engineering problem. It's not a question of if. It's a question of when.

是的。實際上，我們今天已經對此發表了評論。但是在加藤的工廠中，超過 90% 的類似流程已經證明了那裡的效率，但我們受到少數不幸的人的限制，這就是我們正在努力的方向。 Elon 提到的其中之一是運行全尺寸陰極日曆。我們正在努力對設備和實際原材料本身進行一些改進，以免受到這些限制。但同樣，這是一個工程問題。這不是是否的問題。這是什麼時候的問題。

On the mixing side, we haven't actually really had any challenges specific to your question. Fundamentally, we're still happy with the dry process direction in terms of the factory footprint, complexity, utility consumption, space and overall complexity simplification. And I mean -- and the costs associated with everything that I just mentioned.

在混音方面，我們實際上並沒有針對您的問題遇到任何挑戰。從根本上說，在工廠佔地面積、複雜性、公用事業消耗、空間和整體複雜性簡化方面，我們仍然對乾法工藝方向感到滿意。我的意思是——以及與我剛才提到的一切相關的成本。

Yes. And don't want to overemphasize dry cathode, I mean, it is -- I don't know, maybe it's like 10% or 15% of the cost improvement or something like that. I don't know, 20% maybe of wet...

是的。並且不想過分強調幹陰極，我的意思是，它是 - 我不知道，也許這就像成本改進的 10% 或 15% 或類似的東西。我不知道，20%可能是濕的...

Yes, 10%, closer to 10%.

是的，10%，接近 10%。

Yes. So it's like -- just like people don't think like this is like the messiah or something. Wet versus dry reduces -- to dry is like 10% less cost than wet. So it's not -- now 10%, still nothing to sneeze at, especially if you're making hundreds of gigawatt hours a year, but it's not the messiah basically. Yes.

是的。所以它就像 - 就像人們不認為這就像彌賽亞或其他東西。濕比干降低——干比濕的成本低 10%。所以它不是——現在是 10%，仍然沒什麼好打噴嚏的，特別是如果你每年生產數百吉瓦時，但它基本上不是救世主。是的。

Yes.

是的。

Next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

I have another question actually on batteries but on a slightly different angle. I was wondering how you're looking at your sourcing strategy for the 4680. You've talked a lot about all the work you're doing to develop your in-house production. But what about asking other battery manufacturers to do 4680 cells with their own technology, maybe less innovation than what you guys are lining up internally? And I was wondering if the first 4680 cells that we'll see on the road will definitely come from Tesla's own manufacturing lines or whether they could be coming actually from outside suppliers as well. And I have a quick follow-up.

我實際上對電池還有另一個問題，但角度略有不同。我想知道您如何看待 4680 的採購策略。您已經談了很多關於您為開發內部生產所做的所有工作。但是請其他電池製造商用他們自己的技術做 4680 電池怎麼樣，可能比你們內部排隊的創新更少？我想知道我們將在路上看到的首批 4680 電池是否肯定來自特斯拉自己的生產線，或者它們是否也可能來自外部供應商。我有一個快速跟進。

Yes. We are, in fact, working with our existing suppliers to produce 4680 format cells. And this is just a guess right now, but I see us sort of like consolidating around 4680 nickel-based structural pack and for long-range vehicles. And then not necessarily a 4680 format but some other format for iron-based cells. And so we -- right now, we kind of have the Baskin-Robbins of batteries situation with us. We have so many formats and so many chemistries that it's like we've got like 36 flavors of battery this way.

是的。事實上，我們正在與現有供應商合作生產 4680 格式單元。現在這只是一個猜測，但我認為我們有點像整合 4680 鎳基結構包和遠程車輛。然後不一定是 4680 格式，而是鐵基電池的其他格式。所以我們 - 現在，我們有點像Baskin-Robbins的電池情況。我們有如此多的格式和如此多的化學成分，以至於我們以這種方式擁有了 36 種口味的電池。

This is just -- this results in an engineering drag coefficient where each variant of cell chemistry and format requires a certain amount of engineering to maintain it and troubleshoot, and this inhibits our forward progress. So it is going to be important to consolidate to just maybe ideally 2 form factors, maybe 3 but ideally 2 and then just 1 nickel chemistry and 1 iron chemistry and -- so we don't have to troubleshoot so many different variants.

這只是 - 這會導致工程阻力係數，其中每個細胞化學和格式的變體都需要一定數量的工程來維護和排除故障，這會阻礙我們的前進。因此，重要的是整合到理想情況下的 2 種形式因素，可能是 3 種，但理想情況下是 2 種，然後只有 1 種鎳化學和 1 種鐵化學，並且 - 所以我們不必對這麼多不同的變體進行故障排除。

Yes. And towards that end, we are engaging with the suppliers that we've had good partnerships with on 4680 designs to enable that simplification, and so far, so good. They're working on -- they're bringing their core competencies to bear on that. We're not mandating like what's going on inside, but it's been a good collaboration.

是的。為此，我們正在與我們在 4680 設計上建立良好合作夥伴關係的供應商進行合作，以實現這種簡化，到目前為止，一切都很好。他們正在努力——他們正在發揮他們的核心競爭力。我們並沒有像內部發生的事情那樣強制要求，但這是一次很好的合作。

Yes. And we do expect to see significant increases in supply from our existing suppliers in addition to the cells that Tesla's making. So it's both. Sometimes I get questions from our cell suppliers of like are we just going to make all the cells ourselves and we're like no. Please make as many as you possibly can and supply them to us. We have a significant unmet demand in stationary storage.

是的。除了特斯拉製造的電池外，我們確實希望看到現有供應商的供應量顯著增加。所以兩者兼而有之。有時我會從我們的電池供應商那裡得到問題，比如我們是否要自己製造所有的電池，我們就像不一樣。請盡可能多地製作並提供給我們。我們在固定存儲方面有大量未滿足的需求。

Megapack is basically sold out until the end of next year, I believe. We have a massive backlog in Powerwall demand. The demand of Powerwall versus production is an insane mismatch. Now part of that problem is also the semiconductor issue. So we use a lot of the same chips in the Powerwall as you do in a car. So it's like which one do you want to make? Cars or Powerwalls? So we need to make cars, so therefore, Powerwall production has been reduced.

我相信，Megapack 到明年年底基本上都賣光了。我們有大量積壓的 Powerwall 需求。 Powerwall 與生產的需求是一種瘋狂的不匹配。現在這個問題的一部分也是半導體問題。因此，我們在 Powerwall 中使用了很多與汽車中相同的芯片。所以你想製作哪一個？汽車還是動力牆？所以我們需要製造汽車，因此，Powerwall 的產量減少了。

But as that semiconductor shortage is alleviated, then we can massively ramp up Powerwall production. I think we have a chance of hitting an annualized rate of 1 million units of Powerwall next year maybe towards -- on the order of 20,000 a week but again, dependent on cell supply and semiconductors.

但隨著半導體短缺的緩解，我們可以大規模提高 Powerwall 的產量。我認為我們有機會在明年達到 100 萬台 Powerwall 的年化率——大約每週 20,000 台，但同樣取決於電池供應和半導體。

But in terms of demand, I think there's probably demand for in excess of 1 million Powerwalls per year and actually -- and just a vast amount of Megapacks for utilities. As the world transitions to a sustainable energy production, solar and wind are intermittent and, by their nature, really need battery packs in order to provide a steady flow of electricity. And when you look at all of the utilities in the world, this is a vast amount of batteries that are needed. That's why long term, we really think sort of, combined, Tesla and suppliers need to produce at least 1,000 gigawatt hours a year and maybe 2,000 gigawatt hours a year.

但就需求而言，我認為每年可能需要超過 100 萬個 Powerwall，實際上——而且只是大量用於公用事業的 Megapack。隨著世界向可持續能源生產過渡，太陽能和風能是間歇性的，就其性質而言，確實需要電池組來提供穩定的電力流動。當您查看世界上所有的公用事業時，需要大量的電池。這就是為什麼從長遠來看，我們真的認為特斯拉和供應商需要每年至少生產 1,000 吉瓦時，甚至可能每年生產 2,000 吉瓦時。

Okay. Great. And I have a quick question. I know, Elon, you don't think it's meaningful today, but I'd be curious to know if you have any stats about when you announced the new pricing on the FSD moving from $10,000 from -- to $199 with the lock-in. I'd be curious to understand how it affected behavior and if you saw like a massive uptake in the service. And I'm not thinking about people looking at it as an FSD but more to try the most advanced version of autopilot and to try it. So in the first days, you've announced the pricing. Have you seen like a very significant spike in the take rate? And can you give us a sense of how big it was?

好的。偉大的。我有一個簡單的問題。我知道，埃隆，你認為今天沒有意義，但我很想知道你是否有任何關於你宣布 FSD 的新定價從 10,000 美元從 - 到 199 美元鎖定時的統計數據.我很想了解它是如何影響行為的，以及您是否看到該服務的大量使用。而且我並沒有考慮人們將其視為 FSD，而是更多地嘗試最先進的自動駕駛儀版本並嘗試它。所以在第一天，你已經宣布了定價。你有沒有看到錄取率出現非常顯著的飆升？你能告訴我們它有多大嗎？

Okay. So you're asking like is the FSD take rate too expensive and that's why we're doing subscription? Or I'm not sure if I understand your question correctly.

好的。所以你問的是 FSD 的收費率是不是太貴了，這就是我們訂閱的原因？或者我不確定我是否正確理解了你的問題。

No, my question is from the time you announced like the subscription at the $199 per month, how much did like the take rate increase, like the percentage of people who basically took the subscription as they bought a new car versus how it was when they had to pay $10,000 upfront.

不，我的問題是，從您宣布訂閱費為每月 199 美元起，收取率增加了多少，例如購買新車時基本上訂閱訂閱的人的百分比與他們購買新車時的百分比必須預付 10,000 美元。

Yes. This is Zach here. I mean I think we're still early in understanding how FSD subscription will unfold, but a couple of data points here. So we took a look at our backlog to see, of customers in our backlog who have ordered FSD, did they cancel presumably to go to subscription after they take delivery. And the level of cancellations there was we're not seeing cannibalization there. It's possible that, that changes, but that was also part of our pricing strategy at $99 and $199.

是的。這是紮克。我的意思是我認為我們仍處於了解 FSD 訂閱將如何展開的早期階段，但這裡有幾個數據點。因此，我們查看了我們的積壓訂單，看看在我們的積壓訂單中訂購了 FSD 的客戶，他們是否可能在收貨後取消訂閱以進行訂閱。那裡的取消水平我們沒有看到那裡的自相殘殺。這種情況可能會發生變化，但這也是我們定價策略的一部分，分別為 99 美元和 199 美元。

Yes. I mean we -- I think like any given price is going to be wrong, so we'll just adjust it over time as we see the value proposition makes sense to people. So we're just really -- I'm not thinking about this a lot right now. We need to make full self-driving work in order for it to be a compelling value proposition. Otherwise, people are kind of betting on the future.

是的。我的意思是我們 - 我認為任何給定的價格都會出錯，所以我們會隨著時間的推移調整它，因為我們認為價值主張對人們有意義。所以我們真的 - 我現在沒有太多考慮這個問題。我們需要完全實現自動駕駛工作，以使其成為一個引人注目的價值主張。否則，人們有點押注於未來。

I mean, like right now, is it -- does it make sense for somebody to do FSD subscription? I think it's debatable. But once we have full self-driving widely deployed, then the value proposition will be clear. And at that point, I think basically everyone will use it or be rare -- a rare individual who doesn't.

我的意思是，就像現在一樣，有人訂閱 FSD 是否有意義？我認為這是值得商榷的。但是，一旦我們廣泛部署了全自動駕駛，那麼價值主張就會很明確。到那時，我認為基本上每個人都會使用它或者是稀有的——很少有人不使用它。

Okay. Thank you very much for your help, and I think that's all the time we have for today. Thanks for all your questions, and we'll speak to you again in 3 months' time. Have a good day, everyone.

好的。非常感謝您的幫助，我想這就是我們今天的全部時間。感謝您提出的所有問題，我們將在 3 個月後再次與您聯繫。祝大家有美好的一天。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。