特斯拉 (TSLA) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Tesla Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

大家好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加特斯拉2021財年第二季財務業績及問答網路直播。 （操作說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製。 （操作說明）現在，我將會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係高級總監馬丁·維查先生。請開始。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. And welcome to Tesla's Second Quarter 2021 Q&A Webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives. Our Q2 results were announced at about 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

謝謝大家，下午好。歡迎收看特斯拉2021財年第二季問答網路直播。今天與我一同出席的還有伊隆馬斯克、扎克里柯克霍恩以及其他幾位高階主管。我們的第二季業績已於太平洋時間下午1點左右在更新文件中公佈，該文件與本次網路直播的連結相同。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events and results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions) But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務展望並發表前瞻性聲明。這些評論是基於我們截至目前為止的預測和預期。由於許多風險和不確定因素，包括我們在最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提及的風險和不確定因素，實際事件和結果可能與預期有重大差異。 （操作說明）但在進入問答環節之前，伊隆馬斯克將作開場白。埃隆？

Sure. So to recap, Q2 2021 was a record quarter on many levels. We achieved record production, deliveries and surpassed over $1 billion in GAAP net income for the first time in Tesla history. I'd really like to congratulate everyone at Tesla for an amazing job. This is really an incredible milestone.

當然。總而言之，2021年第二季在許多方面都創下了紀錄。我們實現了創紀錄的產量和交付量，並且特斯拉歷史上首次實現了超過10億美元的GAAP淨利潤。我衷心祝賀特斯拉的每一位員工，你們做得非常出色。這真是一個了不起的里程碑。

It also seems that public sentiment towards EVs is at an inflection point; and at this point, I think almost everyone agrees that electric vehicles are the only way forward. Regarding supply chain, while we're making cars at full speed, the global chip shortage situation remains quite serious. For the rest of this year, our growth rates will be determined by the slowest part in our supply chain, which is there's a wide range of chips that are, at various times, the slowest parts in the supply chain.

大眾對電動車的態度似乎也處於轉捩點；目前，我認為幾乎所有人都認同電動車是唯一的未來發展方向。關於供應鏈，雖然我們正在全力生產汽車，但全球晶片短缺的情況依然十分嚴峻。今年剩餘時間裡，我們的成長率將取決於供應鏈中最慢的環節，而供應鏈中存在著種類繁多的晶片，它們在不同時期都可能成為供應鏈中最慢的環節。

I mean it's worth noting that if we had -- everything else, if we had vast numbers of vehicles themselves, we would not be able to make them -- if everything, except the chips, we wouldn't be able to make them. The chip supply is fundamentally the governing factor on our output. It is difficult for us to see how long this will last because we don't have -- this is out of our control essentially. It does seem like it's getting better, but it's hard to predict.

我的意思是，值得注意的是，即便我們擁有其他所有條件，即便我們擁有大量的車輛本身，我們也無法生產它們——即便除了晶片之外其他所有條件都具備，我們也無法生產它們。晶片供應從根本上決定了我們的產量。我們很難預測這種情況會持續多久，因為我們無法控制晶片供應。雖然情況似乎正在好轉，但很難預測未來。

So in fact, even achieving the output that we did achieve was only due to an immense effort from people within Tesla. We were able to substitute alternative chips and then write the firmware in a matter of weeks. It's not just a matter of swapping out a chip. You also have to rewrite the software. So it was an incredibly intense effort of finding new chips, writing new firmware, integrating with the vehicle and testing in order to maintain production.

事實上，我們最終取得的成績完全歸功於特斯拉內部人員的巨大努力。我們能夠在短短幾週內找到替代晶片並編寫韌體。這不僅是更換晶片那麼簡單，還需要重寫軟體。因此，為了維持生產，我們需要投入大量精力尋找新晶片、編寫新韌體、將其與車輛整合並進行測試。

And I'd also like to thank our suppliers who worked with us. And there have been many calls at midnight, 1 a.m., just with suppliers but -- in resolving a lot of the shortages. So thanks very much to our suppliers.

我還要感謝與我們並肩作戰的供應商。為了解決許多物資短缺問題，我們常常在午夜、凌晨一點接到供應商的電話。所以，非常感謝我們的供應商們。

Let's see. In terms of FSD subscription, we were able to launch full self-driving subscription last month. And we expect it to build slowly and then -- but then gather a lot of momentum over time. Obviously, we need to have the full-self driving build widely available for it really to take off at a high rate and make a lot of progress there. So yes, I think FSD subscription will be a significant factor probably next year.

我們來看看。關於FSD訂閱服務，我們上個月正式推出了全自動駕駛訂閱。我們預計它會緩慢發展，但隨著時間的推移，會逐漸累積起強勁的成長動能。顯然，我們需要讓全自動駕駛版本廣泛應用，才能真正實現高速成長並取得顯著進展。所以，我認為FSD訂閱服務明年可能會成為一個重要的成長點。

With regard to Giga Texas and Giga Berlin, we're actually doing this earnings call from Giga Texas, so we're in the factory right now doing this earnings call. And the team has made incredible progress here. You can see the pictures online and see that there's basically nothing a year ago and this -- a large -- a mostly complete large factory a year later. So it's really great work by the Giga Texas team. And then also great work in Berlin, Brandenburg with the team there.

關於德州超級工廠和柏林超級工廠，我們目前正在德州超級工廠進行財報電話會議，所以我們現在就在工廠裡。團隊在這裡取得了令人矚目的進展。您可以在網路上看到照片，一年前這裡幾乎什麼都沒有，而一年後，這裡已經建造了一座規模龐大、基本完工的工廠。德州超級工廠團隊的工作非常出色。同時，勃蘭登堡州柏林超級工廠的團隊也做得非常棒。

So we expect to be producing the sort of new design of the Model Y in both factories in limited production later this year. It's always like it's not -- it's hard to sort of explain to people who have not been through the agony of a manufacturing ramp. Like why can't you just turn it on and make 5,000 a week? This is -- it is so hard to do manufacturing. It is so hard to do production. At gross approximation, there are 10,000 unique parts and processes that have to work. And the greater growth of production goes as fast as the least lucky and dumbest of those 10,000 things. And a bunch of them are not even in our control, so it's like -- it's insanely difficult.

所以我們預計今年稍後將在兩家工廠限量生產新款Model Y。這總是讓人覺得──很難向那些沒有經歷過產能爬坡痛苦的人解釋清楚。就像，為什麼不能直接啟動生產，每週生產5000輛？這——製造真的太難了。生產真的太難了。粗略估計，有10000個獨特的零件和製程必須運作良好。而產能的進一步提升，速度取決於這10,000個環節中最不順利、最不可靠的環節。而且其中許多環節甚至不在我們的控制範圍內，所以──這簡直難如登天。

I'm fond of saying that prototypes are easy and production is hard. And arguably, the really remarkable thing that Tesla's done is not to make an electric car or to be a car start-up because there have been hundreds of car start-ups in the United States and outside United States. So the thing that's remarkable is that Tesla didn't go bankrupt in reaching volume production. That's the amazing part because everyone else did, because they all got the prototype before the idea was the hard part and it is not. It is trivial by comparison with actual production.

我常說，原型製作容易，量產難。可以說，特斯拉真正了不起的地方不在於製造電動車或成為汽車新創公司，因為在美國和世界各地，已經有數百家汽車新創公司。真正了不起的是，特斯拉在實現量產的過程中並沒有破產。這才是最令人驚嘆的地方，因為其他公司都破產了，因為他們都在概念階段就完成了原型製作，而概念階段其實並不難。與實際生產相比，概念階段簡直微不足道。

So it's always worth noting that of all the American car companies, there are only 2 that have not gone bankrupt and that is Ford and Tesla. So the seeds of defeat are sown on the day of victory, and we must be careful that we do not do that. So often, if you look at history, so often, the seeds of defeat are sown on the day of victory. We will endeavor not to make that the case of Tesla.

所以值得注意的是，在美國所有汽車公司中，只有兩家沒有破產，那就是福特和特斯拉。失敗的種子往往在勝利之日播下，我們必須小心避免這種情況發生。縱觀歷史，失敗的種子常常在勝利之日播下。我們將努力避免特斯拉重蹈覆轍。

So let's see, the model lines in Texas -- and mainly in Texas and Berlin will be -- will look very much like the Model Ys we currently make, but there are substantial improvements in the difficulty of manufacturing. So for example, the Model Y made here and in Berlin will have a cast front body and a cast rear body, whereas the one in California has a cast rear body but not a cast front body. We're also aiming to do a structural pack with 4680s cells, which is a mass reduction and a cost reduction.

所以，讓我們來看看，德州（主要是德州和柏林）生產的Model Y車型，外觀與我們目前生產的Model Y非常相似，但在製造流程方面有了顯著改進。例如，德州和柏林生產的Model Y將採用鑄造前後車身，而加州生產的Model Y則只有鑄造後車身，沒有鑄造前車身。我們也計劃採用4680電芯的結構電池組，這樣可以減輕重量並降低成本。

But we're not counting on that as the only way to make things work. We have some backup plan with nonstructural -- with a nonstructural pack and 2170s essentially. So -- but at scale production, we obviously want to be using 4680s and a structural pack. From a physics standpoint, this is the best architecture; and from an economic standpoint, it is the lowest cost way to go. So the lightest, lowest cost.

但我們並不認為這是唯一可行的方案。我們還有一些備用方案，像是使用非結構化組件——基本上就是一個非結構化組件包和2170晶片。所以——但在大規模生產中，我們顯然希望使用4680晶片和結構化組件包。從物理學的角度來看，這是最佳架構；從經濟的角度來看，這是成本最低的方案。因此，它是最輕、成本最低的。

But there's a lot of new technology there, so it is difficult to predict with precision when does it work and when do you reach scale production. And Drew's going to talk a bit more about the 4680 production. Yes.

但那裡有很多新技術，所以很難精確預測它何時有效，何時才能實現規模化生產。德魯接下來會再詳細談談4680的生產情況。是的。

So we're all making great progress on the 4680 cells, but there is a tremendous amount of innovation that we're packing into that 4680 cell. And so it's not simply a sort of minor improvement on state of the art. There are -- and we went through this on the Battery Cell Day -- really dozens of -- half a dozen major improvements and dozens of small improvements. So I think it will be great, but it's difficult to say when the last of the technical challenges will be solved.

我們在4680電池的研發上取得了巨大進展，但這款4680電池蘊含著大量的創新技術。因此，它並非只是對現有技術的簡單改進。正如我們在電池日活動上詳細討論的那樣，它包含了數十項——至少有六項重大改進和數十項細微改進。所以我認為它將會非常出色，但很難說何時才能徹底解決所有技術難題。

So in conclusion, our team continues to make huge efforts to make our factories run at full speed, which is very difficult. We have had some factory shutdowns due to part shortages, and we hope those will be relieved in the coming weeks and months. And we're making great progress on full self-driving. Some of the progress is not easy to see because it is at a foundational software level, and so then it ends up being sort of a 2 steps forward, 1 step back situation. And -- but over time, you do 2 steps forward and 1 step back and keep going, you do move forward.

總之，我們的團隊仍在竭盡全力確保工廠滿載運轉，這非常困難。由於零件短缺，我們不得不停產部分工廠，希望這些問題能在未來幾週或幾個月內緩解。我們在全自動駕駛方面也取得了顯著進展。部分進展​​不易察覺，因為它涉及基礎軟體層面，因此常常會出現「前進兩步，後退一步」的情況。但是，隨著時間的推移，只要堅持不懈，最終還是會進步。

So I'm highly confident that the cars will be capable of full self-driving. If they have a full self-driving computer and the cameras, I'm confident that they will be able to drive themselves with the safety level substantially greater than that of the average cars.

所以我非常有信心這些汽車能夠實現完全自動駕駛。如果它們配備了完全自動駕駛電腦和攝像頭，我相信它們的自動駕駛安全性將遠遠超出普通汽車。

Once again, thanks to all of our employees who are making this a breakthrough year for Tesla and an incredible quarter. Thanks, guys.

再次感謝所有員工，正是你們的付出，才讓特斯拉今年取得了突破性的進展，也成就了令人難以置信的季度業績。謝謝大家！

Thank you very much. And we have some follow-up remarks from Zachary Kirkhorn.

非常感謝。接下來，扎卡里·柯克霍恩還有一些補充說明。

Yes. Thanks, Martin, and thanks, Elon. Just to reiterate, Q2 was a great quarter for the Tesla team with strong improvements across the business. In particular, auto gross profit and margin, excluding credit, increased substantially. This was primarily driven by better cost optimization across our factories, good execution against our cost reduction plans as well as increases in production and delivery volumes.

是的。謝謝馬丁，也謝謝埃隆。再次強調一下，第二季度對特斯拉團隊來說是一個非常棒的季度，業務各方面都取得了顯著進步。特別是，不計信貸的汽車業務毛利和毛利率大幅成長。這主要得益於我們工廠成本優化的提升、成本削減計劃的有效執行以及產量和交付量的增長。

There was some benefit from pricing action mostly in North America. However, it was small in the context of the other contributors. Note that the Model S and X program was at a slight loss for the quarter due to the relatively low volume. And supply chain challenges, including expedites, continue to provide cost headwinds.

北美地區的定價策略帶來了一些收益，但與其他因素相比，其影響微乎其微。值得注意的是，由於銷售量相對較低，Model S 和 Model X 專案本季略有虧損。此外，供應鏈挑戰，包括加急訂單，持續推高成本。

Additionally, it's encouraging to see the progress made on profitability within our energy and services and other businesses. While there's some benefit to looking at our progress quarter-over-quarter, I find it more helpful to look at progress over a slightly long-term horizon. Over the last 2 years, our vehicle delivery volumes have more than doubled. This volume increase was made possible by a steady decrease in ASPs of more than 10%, driven by our road map to increase affordability and shifting mix towards our more affordable vehicles. Yet over that same period of time, our auto gross margin, excluding credit, has increased nearly 10 percentage points to our highest yet since the introduction of Model 3. This is only possible because our average cost per vehicle has reduced by more than the reduction in average price. This is a remarkable achievement in the context of the volume growth and ASP reduction, as mentioned, and a testament to the hard work by the Tesla team.

此外，令人鼓舞的是，我們在能源、服務及其他業務的獲利能力方面也取得了進展。雖然按季度分析進展有一定的參考價值，但我認為從稍長的時間跨度來看待進展會更有幫助。過去兩年，我們的車輛交付量增加了一倍以上。這一增長得益於平均售價（ASP）持續下降超過10%，這得益於我們旨在提高車輛可負擔性的路線圖以及產品組合向更經濟實惠車型的轉變。然而，在同一時期，我們汽車毛利率（不計信貸）成長了近10個百分點，達到Model 3推出以來的最高水準。這只有在平均每輛車成本的降幅超過平均售價降幅的情況下才能實現。如前文所述，在銷售成長和平均售價下降的背景下，這是一項卓越的成就，也是特斯拉團隊辛勤工作的最佳證明。

Additionally, OpEx as a percentage of revenue has declined and in particular, SG&A, representing the work we've done to become more efficient as we scale the company while still making the required R&D investments to support our future. As a result, our GAAP operating margins have risen from negative to double digit in line with what we have guided. By managing our overhead costs and driving higher volumes, our P&L is benefiting from the marginal profitability of each incremental unit, or said differently, we are recognizing the benefits of scale and improved fixed cost absorption.

此外，營運支出佔收入的比例有所下降，尤其是銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）的降幅，這反映了我們在公司規模擴張的同時，為提高效率所做的努力，同時也確保了我們為未來發展所需的研發投入。因此，我們的GAAP營業利潤率已從負值回升至兩位數，符合我們先前的預期。透過有效控制管理費用並提升銷量，我們的損益表受益於每增加一個單位的邊際利潤，換言之，我們正在實現規模效益和固定成本吸收能力的提升。

With strong operating cash flows and cash balance, we are putting that cash to use. CapEx continues to tick up, primarily driven by capacity investments in Austin, Berlin and Shanghai. Additionally, each quarter, we are using our cash to retire legacy debt, which was taken on at a time when interest rates and company risks were much higher than in today's environment.

憑藉強勁的營運現金流和現金餘額，我們正在有效利用這些資金。資本支出持續成長，主要得益於在奧斯汀、柏林和上海的產能投資。此外，我們每季都會利用現金償還歷史債務，這些債務是在利率和公司風險遠高於當前環境的時期承擔的。

As I've mentioned before, our 2021 volumes will skew towards the second half of the year as we push for continued sequential increases in volume. Despite the great work so far managing the instability of the supply chain, these challenges remain and are unfortunately increasing in pain with the higher volume. As we work through the uncertainty, we want to ensure we do our best to manage customer wait times as well as the impact these interruptions have on our employees and costs.

正如我之前提到的，由於我們力求持續提升銷售量，2021 年的銷售量將主要集中在下半年。儘管目前我們在應對供應鏈不穩定方面取得了顯著成效，但這些挑戰依然存在，而且不幸的是，隨著銷售量的成長，這些挑戰也愈發嚴峻。在應對這些不確定性的同時，我們希望盡最大努力縮短客戶的等待時間，並盡可能減少這些中斷對員工和成本的影響。

And as Elon mentioned, volume growth will be determined by part availability as we have the factory capacity ready and are in a strong demand position. I'm excited to see the progress made by the Tesla team as we continue building the business and strengthening our financials. Thank you very much.

正如埃隆所說，銷售成長將取決於零件的供應情況，因為我們的工廠產能已準備就緒，而且市場需求強勁。我很高興看到特斯拉團隊的進展，我們將繼續發展業務，並增強財務實力。非常感謝。

Great. Thank you very much, Zach. And now let's go through the retail investor questions on say.com.

太好了。非常感謝你，扎克。現在讓我們來看看say.com網站上關於散戶投資者的問題。

The first question from Robert M. is Tesla's website still says Cybertruck production is expected to begin in late 2021. Can Tesla share more details on the current status of the Cybertruck and confirm if production is still (technical difficulty) Lars, do you want to...

Robert M. 的第一個問題是，特斯拉官網仍然顯示 Cyber​​truck 的生產預計將於 2021 年底開始。特斯拉能否分享更多關於 Cyber​​truck 目前狀況的細節，並確認生產是否仍在進行中？ （技術問題）Lars，你想…

Sorry, we cut out there for a second. Yes, the Cybertruck is currently in its alpha stages. We finished the basic engineering, architecture of the vehicle. With the Cybertruck, we're redefining how the vehicle is being made. As Elon said, it carries much of the structural pack and large casting designs of the Model Y being built in Berlin and Austin. Obviously, those take priority over the Cybertruck, but we are moving into the beta phases of Cybertruck later this year, and we'll be looking to ramp that in production in Giga Texas after Model Y is up and going.

抱歉，剛才有點中斷。是的，Cyber​​truck 目前仍處於 Alpha 測試階段。我們已經完成了車輛的基礎工程和架構設計。 Cyber​​truck 的研發將重新定義車輛的製造方式。正如伊隆所說，它藉鑒了 Model Y 在柏林和奧斯汀工廠生產的大部分結構組件和大型鑄造設計。顯然，Model Y 的優先順序高於 Cyber​​truck，但我們將在今年稍後進入 Cyber​​truck 的 Beta 測試階段，並在 Model Y 投產後，在德州超級工廠擴大 Cyber​​truck 的產能。

Yes, just worth reemphasizing that the extraordinarily difficult -- extraordinary difficulty of ramping production of large manufacturing items. The risk of being repetitive, it's actually easy to make prototypes or sort of handle small volume production. But anything produced at high volume, which is really what's relevant here, is it's going to move as fast as the slowest of the, say, at rough order of magnitude, 10,000 unique parts and processes.

是的，值得再次強調的是，大規模製造產品的量產難度極高——真的非常大。重複性高的風險在於，製作原型或小批量生產其實比較容易。但任何大批量生產的產品（這才是真正相關的），其生產速度都取決於其中最慢的環節，比如說，大約有1萬個不同的零件和工序。

And so you can have 9,999, which is 1 is missing. I mean we were missing -- for example, like a big struggle this quarter was the module that controls the airbags and the seatbelts. And obviously, you cannot ship a car without those. And that limited our production severely worldwide in Shanghai and in Fremont. So it -- like it wouldn't have mattered if we had like 17 different car models because they won't need the airbag module, so it's irrelevant.

所以，我們總共有9999輛，還差1輛。我的意思是，我們缺少的模組——比如，這季度我們遇到的一個大難題就是控制安全氣囊和安全帶的模組。顯然，沒有這些模組，車子是出不去的。這嚴重限制了我們在上海和弗里蒙特的全球產能。所以，就算我們有17種不同的車型也沒關係，因為它們不需要安全氣囊模組，所以缺貨並不重要。

So the -- in order for Cybertruck and Semi to scale to volume that's meaningful for customer deliveries, we've got to solve the chip shortage or working with our suppliers and people just want to say, "Why don't you just build a chip fab?" Okay, well, okay, that would take us, even moving like lightning, 12 to 18 months. So it's not like you can just whip out a chip fab, just like, yes, I'll just make a quick chip fab.

所以，為了讓 Cyber​​truck 和 Semi 的產量達到能夠滿足客戶交付需求的規模，我們必須解決晶片短缺問題，或與供應商合作解決。有些人會說：「你們為什麼不建個晶片工廠呢？」 好吧，好吧，即便我們進展神速，也需要 12 到 18 個月的時間。所以，這不像建個晶片工廠那麼簡單，不是說「好的，我馬上就建一個」。

So some of these things are -- yes, anyway. It is quite a trial dealing with all of the constraints of scaling a large manufactured object. I think it may be the case that Tesla is scaling. It's -- I think we might be the fastest in history ever for scaling a large manufactured object. I think maybe the Model T would have been comparable back in the day, the Ford Model T. Probably, the Internet knows the answer. But I think we may be scaling large manufactured object at the fastest rate in history. Or I'd like to know who did it faster, so we can learn from them. So it's worth just noting that, and in the grand scheme of things, it's not bad.

所以，有些事情——是的，總之。要應對大型製造品規模化生產的所有限制，確實是一項艱鉅的挑戰。我認為特斯拉可能正在實現規模化生產。我認為我們可能是史上規模化生產大型製造品速度最快的。我想，當年的福特T型車或許可以與之媲美。或許，網路上有人知道答案。但我認為，我們或許正在以史上最快的速度實現大型製造品的規模化生產。或者，我想知道誰做得更快，這樣我們就可以向他們學習。所以，值得一提的是，從長遠來看，這還不錯。

So yes, so Cybertruck and Semi, actually both are heavy users of cell capacity. So we've got to make sure we have the cell capacity for those 2 vehicles or it's kind of pointless. We can make a small number of vehicles, but the effective cost if you make a small number of vehicles is the same. Like they literally cost like $1 million a piece or more. There's a reason why you do things at volume production, which is to get the economies of scale that get us down.

是的，Cyber​​truck 和 Semi 實際上都是電池容量的大戶。所以我們必須確保有足夠的電池容量來滿足這兩款車的需求，否則就毫無意義。我們可以少量生產，但少量生產的實際成本是一樣的。它們每輛車的成本可能高達 100 萬美元甚至更多。批量生產是有原因的，那就是為了實現規模經濟，進而降低成本。

So we are looking at a pretty massive increase in cell availability next year, but it's not like in January 1. It comes through -- it ramps up through the course of next year. But even without Tesla -- Tesla's (technical difficulty) Hello? Okay. Even without Tesla cell production, we believe our suppliers will be able to deliver about twice as much cell output in next year as this year. And Drew, do you want to talk more about that?

所以我們預計明年電池供應量將大幅成長，但這並非一蹴而就，而是在明年逐步提升。即使沒有特斯拉——特斯拉的（技術故障）餵？好的。即使沒有特斯拉的電池生產，我們相信我們的供應商明年也能提供比今年約兩倍的電池產量。德魯，你想再詳細談談這方面嗎？

Yes, given concerns over cells bottlenecking growth, our target is to grow cell supply ahead of the 50% year-on-year growth targets of the vehicle business and also enable increased energy storage deployments. So yes, our cell suppliers are tracking to double their production in 2022.

是的，鑑於電池供應可能成為成長瓶頸，我們的目標是在汽車業務實現50%的年增長率目標之前，先提高電池供應量，並促進儲能部署的增加。因此，我們的電池供應商正朝著2022年產量翻倍的目標穩步邁進。

Yes. It's worth thing like if you have a target of a certain number, that doesn't mean it happens like as sure as night follows day. It's a target. So if there is some calamity in the world that it drops the supply chain, then it will be less. But the contracts that we have with cell suppliers quote roughly a doubling of cell supply to Tesla in 2022.

是的。需要注意的是，即使你設定了某個目標數量，也不代表它一定會實現。這只是一個目標。所以，如果世界上發生某種災難導致供應鏈中斷，那麼實際產量就會減少。但我們與電池供應商簽訂的合約規定，到2022年，特斯拉的電池供應量將大致增加一倍。

And we have to juggle these exponential -- there's a whole bunch of exponential graphs sort of overlay on top of each other, and small changes in where you are on the X axis of time can quite substantially change the area under the curve. So what we're thinking of doing is like depending on -- it's basically overshooting on cell supply for vehicles, and then as we have, say, excess cell supply in 1 month or another, then routing that cell output to the Megapack and Powerwall. Oh by the -- if we're -- prior to [taking] vehicle production, if there's a shortage of cell output, for some reason, then we will throttle down Megapack and Powerwall production. So it will be something's got to give basically.

我們必須應對這些指數級增長——這裡有一大堆指數曲線相互疊加，時間軸（X軸）上的任何微小變化都可能對曲線下的面積產生相當大的影響。所以我們正在考慮的做法是，根據車輛電池供應情況，比如說，在某個月或幾個月內電池供應過剩時，將多餘的電池分配給Megapack和Powerwall。另外，如果在車輛生產之前，由於某種原因電池供應短缺，那麼我們將減少Megapack和Powerwall的產量。所以基本上，必須有所取捨。

Or if there's a disruption to vehicle production, you have an outlet for the cell capacity.

或者，如果汽車生產中斷，電池產能也有了出路。

Yes, exactly. There's a tremendous amount of inertia in the supply chain. So if we say to a supplier we want you to double cell output, well, even doing that in a year is very difficult. And then that system has a tremendous amount of momentum. It is like a [plateau] of supertankers. It's insane.

沒錯，確實如此。供應鏈中存在著巨大的慣性。所以，如果我們要求供應商將電池產量翻一番，即使一年內實現也非常困難。而且，整個系統擁有巨大的慣性。它就像一連串超級油輪，簡直不可思議。

Speaking of which, from a raw materials perspective, we also have long-term contracts to secure our supply chain to also enable its growth. So we're not just looking at the suppliers but upstream from there.

說到這裡，從原料的角度來看，我們也簽訂了長期合約來保障供應鏈，從而促進自身發展。所以我們不僅關注供應商，也關注上游環節。

Yes.

是的。

Which has more flow to it.

哪個更有流暢感？

Yes, exactly. As mentioned, things will move as fast as the slowest part of the entire supply chain, which goes all the way back to raw materials, lithium and nickel and that kind of thing. And there's sometimes perception that Tesla uses a lot of cobalt, but we actually don't. Apple uses, I think, almost 100% cobalt in their batteries in cellphones, laptops. But Tesla uses no cobalt in the iron phosphate packs and almost none in the nickel-based chemistries. So on a weighted average basis, we might use 2% cobalt compared to the Apple's 100% cobalt.

沒錯，正是如此。如同前面所提到的，整個供應鏈的運轉速度取決於其中最慢的環節，而這可以追溯到原料，例如鋰、鎳等等。有時人們會認為特斯拉使用大量的鈷，但實際上並非如此。蘋果公司在手機和筆記型電腦的電池中幾乎100%使用鈷。但特斯拉在磷酸鐵鋰電池組中不使用鈷，在鎳基電池組中也幾乎不使用。因此，平均而言，我們使用的鈷可能只有蘋果的2%，而蘋果的電池組則100%使用鈷。

Anyway, so it's just -- it's really just not a fact. We expect to basically have 0 cobalt in the future. So I do -- maybe with -- I think probably there is a long-term shift more in the direction of iron-based lithium-ion cells over nickel. As the energy density of sort of iron ore or the iron phosphate -- might as well just call it iron. The phosphate is taken for granted. But iron-based cells, lithium-ion cells and nickel-based lithium-ion cells, I think probably we'll see a shift. My guess is probably to 2/3 iron, 1/3 nickel or something on that order.

總之，這其實並非事實。我們預計未來鈷的使用量將基本為零。所以我認為，從長遠來看，鋰離子電池的模式可能會從鎳基電池轉向鐵基電池。因為鐵礦石或磷酸鐵（其實叫鐵吧，磷酸鐵就不用說了）的能量密度很高。但鐵基電池、鋰離子電池和鎳基鋰離子電池，我認為最終的比例可能會改變。我估計最終的比例可能是三分之二鐵，三分之一鎳，或差不多是這個比例。

And this is actually good because there's plenty of iron in the world. There's an insane amount of iron. But nickel is -- there's much less nickel, and there's way less cobalt. So it is good for relieving the long-term scaling to move to iron-based cells mostly. And I think long term, possibly all -- there's a good chance that all stationary storage, that is Powerwall and Megapack, moves iron, which is most likely the case since you do not need to transport it and there's [less volume that match] constraint for stationary storage. So then nickel would be for -- really for long-range road transport, ships and aircraft, that kind of thing.

這其實是好事，因為世界上的鐵儲量非常豐富，簡直多得驚人。但鎳的儲量就少很多，鈷的儲量更是少得可憐。所以，從長遠來看，轉向以鐵為主要原料的電池有利於緩解長期擴展性問題。我認為從長遠來看，所有固定式儲能設備，例如 Powerwall 和 Megapack，很可能都會使用鐵，因為鐵不需要運輸，而且固定式儲能設備的體積限制也較小。那麼，鎳就更適合長途公路運輸、船舶和飛機運輸之類的應用了。

Thank you. Let's go to the second question from retail, which is Elon has said that Tesla will be opening up the Supercharger network to other EVs later this year. Can you share some more details on how this will be structured? Will this be at select brands? Or will they contribute to the growth of this network?

謝謝。我們來看零售業的第二個問題，馬斯克曾表示特斯拉將在今年稍後向其他電動車開放超級充電網路。能否分享一下具體的運作方式？是只允許特定品牌使用，還是所有品牌都會參與這個網路的建構？

Yes. We're currently thinking it's a real simple thing where you just download the Tesla app and you go to a Supercharger, and you just indicate which stall you're in. So you plug in your car even if it's not Tesla, and then you just access the app and say turn on this stall that I'm in for how much electricity. And this should basically work with, I think, almost any manufacturer's cars.

是的。我們目前的想法很簡單，你只需要下載特斯拉App，然後去超級充電站，選擇你所在的充電樁。即使你的車不是特斯拉，也可以插上充電樁，然後打開App，設定你所在的充電樁的充電量。我覺得這應該適用於幾乎所有廠商的汽車。

There will be a time constraint. So if the charge rate is super slow, then somebody will be charged more because the biggest constraint at the Superchargers is time, how occupied is the stall. And we'll also be smarter with how we charge for electricity at the Superchargers. So rush hour charging will be more expensive than off hours charging because there are times when the Superchargers are empty and times when they're jampacked. And so it makes sense to have some time-based discrimination.

充電速度會有時間限制。如果充電速度非常慢，那麼使用者就需要支付更高的費用，因為超級充電站最大的限制因素是時間，也就是充電樁的佔用情況。此外，我們也會優化超級充電站的收費方式。因此，尖峰時段的充電費用會高於非尖峰時段，因為超級充電站有時會空無一人，有時則會爆滿。所以，根據時間進行價格區分是合理的。

Yes. We've been doing that, and it's been working and people respond. It helps with utilization.

是的，我們一直在做，而且效果不錯，人們的回饋也很好。這有助於提高利用率。

Yes, exactly. So yes, I think we're -- in Europe and China and most parts of the world, it's the same connector for everyone. So this is a fairly easy thing to do, develop our own connector, which, in my opinion, is actually the best connector. It's small and light, looks good, so standard. So we developed our own connector, which in my opinion, is actually the best connector. It's small and light, looks good.

是的，沒錯。所以，我認為在歐洲、中國以及世界大部分地區，大家都使用相同的連接器。因此，開發我們自己的連接器相當容易，而且在我看來，它實際上是最好的連接器。它體積小、重量輕、外觀漂亮，而且符合標準。所以我們開發了自己的連接器，在我看來，它實際上是最好的連接器。它體積小、重量輕、外觀漂亮。

So an adapter is needed to work for EVs in North America. But people could buy this adapter, and we anticipate having it available at the Superchargers as well if people don't sort of steal them or something.

因此，電動車在北美使用需要一個適配器。不過，人們可以購買這種適配器，我們預計，如果沒人偷竊的話，超級充電站也會提供這種適配器。

We have a good solution for that.

我們對此有很好的解決方案。

Okay. So -- but that is -- that's a constraint on North America thing. That's basically a vestige of history. But I think we do want to emphasize that it is -- our goal is to support the advent of sustainable energy. It is not to create a walled garden and use that to bludgeon our competitors, which is sometimes used by some companies.

好的。所以——但這——這是北美地區的限制。這基本上是歷史遺留問題。但我認為我們確實想強調的是——我們的目標是支持永續能源的到來。我們不是要建立一個封閉的生態系統，並以此來打壓競爭對手，而有些公司有時會這樣做。

I think it's also important to comment that increasing the utilization of the network actually reduces our costs, which allows us to lower charging prices for all customers, makes the network more profitable, allows us to grow the network faster. So that's a good thing there. And no matter what, we're going to continue to aggressively expand the network capacity, increasing charging speeds, improving the trip planning tools to protect against site congestion using dynamic pricing, as Elon mentioned, and just continuing to focus on minimum wait time for all customers.

我認為同樣重要的是要指出，提高網路利用率實際上會降低我們的成本，從而降低所有客戶的充電價格，提高網路獲利能力，並加快網路擴張速度。這當然是好事。無論如何，我們將繼續積極擴大網路容量，提高充電速度，改進行程規劃工具，利用動態定價來應對網站擁塞（正如埃隆所提到的），並繼續致力於最大限度地縮短所有客戶的等待時間。

Yes. Obviously, in order for this to be -- for the Supercharger to be useful to other power companies, Lars, we need to grow the network faster than we're growing vehicle output, which is not easy. We're growing vehicle output at a hell of a rate. So Superchargers need to grow faster than vehicle output, so this is a lot of work for the Supercharger team. But it is only useful in the grand scheme of things. It's only useful to the public if we're able to grow faster than Tesla vehicle output. So that is our goal.

是的。顯然，為了讓超級充電站對其他電力公司有用，拉爾斯，我們需要以比車輛產量成長更快的速度擴展充電網絡，但這並非易事。我們的車輛產量成長速度非常驚人。因此，超級充電站的建造速度必須超過車輛產量，這對超級充電站團隊來說是一項艱鉅的任務。但這只有在大局層面上才有意義。只有當我們能夠以比特斯拉車輛產量更快的速度擴展網路時，它才能真正造福大眾。這就是我們的目標。

Thank you very much. And the third question is Elon said 4680 cells aren't reliable enough for vehicles. Is this referring to cycle life degradation or something else? Please update us on progress of 4680s? And what still needs to be done to make them reliable enough for vehicles?

非常感謝。第三個問題是，伊隆說4680電池的可靠性不足以用於車輛。這是指循環壽命衰減還是其他方面？請您介紹一下4680電池的最新進展？還需要做哪些工作才能使其可靠性足以用於車輛？

Yes. I mean, really, this is about -- we'll definitely make the 4680 reliable enough for vehicles. And we, I think, are at the point where, in limited volume, it is reliable enough for vehicles. The -- again, going back to like limited production is easier. Prototype production is easy, but high-volume production is hard. There are a number of challenges in transitioning from small-scale production to a large-volume production.

是的。我的意思是，真的，關鍵在於——我們一定會讓4680的可靠性達到車輛應用的標準。而且我認為，目前我們已經達到了小批量生產時，其可靠性足以滿足車輛應用的要求。再說一遍，回到小批量生產更容易。原型生產很容易，但大規模生產就很難了。從小規模生產過渡到大規模生產會面臨許多挑戰。

And not to get too much into the weeds of things, but right now, we have a challenge with basically the, what's called calendaring or basically squashing the cathode material to a particular height. So it just goes through these welders and get squashed like pizza dough basically and -- but very hard pizza dough. And the -- it's causing -- it's denting the calendar rolls. This is not something that happened when the calendar rolls were smaller, but it is happening when the calendar rolls are bigger. So just like -- we're like, okay, weren't expecting that.

我不想過多贅述細節，但目前我們遇到的問題是，在壓延或將陰極材料壓製成特定高度的過程中，材料會受到擠壓。它通過焊接機，就像披薩麵團一樣被壓扁——只不過是非常硬的披薩麵團。這導致壓延輥出現凹痕。以前壓延輥較小時不會出現這種情況，但現在壓延輥較大時就會出現。所以我們當時就想，好吧，這完全出乎我們的意料。

Yes. It's not a like science problem. It's an engineering problem. It's not a question of if. It's a question of when, and the team is 100% focused on resolving these limiting processes as quickly as possible.

是的。這不是科學問題，而是工程問題。這不是能不能解決的問題，而是何時解決的問題。團隊正全力以赴，盡快解決這些限制性問題。

Exactly.

確切地。

Yes. And on the reliability side, as Elon mentioned, we have successfully validated performance and the lifetime durability of the 4680 cells produced for Kato. And we're continuing ongoing verification of that reliability. We're actually accruing over 1 million equivalent miles on our cells that we produce every month in our testing activities. The focus on that is very clear. We want high-quality cells for all of our customers.

是的。在可靠性方面，正如埃隆所提到的，我們已經成功驗證了為Kato生產的4680電芯的性能和使用壽命。我們正在持續進行可靠性驗證。事實上，我們每月生產的電芯在測試活動中累積行駛里程超過100萬英里。我們的重點非常明確：我們希望為所有客戶提供高品質的電芯。

And yes, we're just focused on the unlucky, limiting steps in the facility. And with the engineers focused on those few steps remaining, we're going to break through as fast as possible.

是的，我們現在只關注設施中那些棘手的、限制性的步驟。工程師們正集中精力攻克剩下的幾個步驟，我們將以最快的速度取得突破。

In the meantime, we're -- we have a massive amount of equipment on order and arriving for the high-volume cell production in Austin and Berlin. And -- but obviously, given what we've learned with the pilot plant, which is in Fremont, which is really quite a big plant by most standards, we will have to modify a bunch of that equipment. So it won't be able to start like immediately, but it seems like -- I mean, Drew, correct me if I'm wrong, but like we think most likely, we will hit an annualized rate of 100 gigawatt hours a year sometime next year.

同時，我們已經訂購了大量設備，這些設備將陸續運抵奧斯汀和柏林，用於大規模電池生產。但是，鑑於我們在弗里蒙特試點工廠（以大多數標準來看，這確實是一個相當大的工廠）的經驗，我們顯然需要對許多設備進行改造。因此，它無法立即投產，但看起來——我是說，德魯，如果我說錯了請糾正我——我們預計明年某個時候很可能達到年產量100吉瓦時的目標。

We'll have all the equipment installed to accomplish 100 gigawatt hours. And it's possible that by the end of the year, we will be at an annualized rate of 100 gigawatt hours by the end of the year.

我們將安裝所有必要的設備，以實現100吉瓦時的發電量。到今年年底，我們有可能達到年發電量100吉瓦時的水準。

Yes. I mean my guess is, more likely than not, about 50% of reaching 100 gigawatt hours a year by the end of next year on an annualized rate, something like that. It could shift by a little bit, so -- but nothing -- as Drew mentioned, it's nothing fundamental. Just a lot of work.

是的。我的意思是，我估計到明年年底，以年化速度計算，達到每年100吉瓦時的目標大概有50%的可能性，差不多是這樣。這個數字可能會略有波動，所以——但正如德魯所提到的，這並非什麼根本性的問題。只是需要做很多工作。

Yes. And even to the large roller question, Elon, right, like on the anode side, the large rollers were great, no concerns. And so we're just learning as we go. And the nice thing about having that facility on the fast track like we had it and we talked about it at Battery Day was really derisking the big factories here. That's what we've done, and we've learned a lot. And with each successive iteration, the ramp-up and the equipment installation will be faster and more [safe].

是的。就連大型輥筒的問題，埃隆，沒錯，就像陽極側的大型輥筒一樣，表現非常出色，沒有任何問題。所以我們一直在摸索和學習。像我們在電池日上討論的那樣，快速推進那個項目的建設，好處在於真正降低了大型工廠的風險。我們就是這麼做的，也從中吸收了許多經驗。隨著每一次迭代，產能提升和設備安裝都會更快、更安全。

Yes.

是的。

All right. Thank you very much. And the last question from retail is from Emmet. Can Elon do an interview with one of our YouTube channels once or twice a year? I would nominate Dave Lee on Investing or Rob Mauer's Tesla Daily channels as first possible candidates.

好的，非常感謝。零售業的最後一個問題來自 Emmet。伊隆能否每年接受我們某個 YouTube 頻道一到兩次採訪？我首先推薦 Dave Lee 的 Investing 頻道或 Rob Mauer 的 Tesla Daily 頻道。

Yes. I guess I'll do an interview. I mean, just bear in mind, like if I'm doing interviews, then I can't do actual other work. So it's not -- I only have so much time in the day, so -- but yes, I'll do one. I won't do it annually, but I'll do it once.

是的，我想我會接受採訪。我的意思是，請記住，如果我接受採訪，我就沒辦法做其他工作了。所以，我一天的時間有限，所以——是的，我會接受採訪。我不會每年都接受採訪，但我會接受一次。

I think also like this is the, I wouldn't say the last time I'll do earnings calls, but this is the -- I will no longer be defaults during earnings calls. So obviously, I'll do the annual shareholder meeting, but I think going forward, I will most likely not be on earnings calls unless there's something really important that I need to say.

我認為，雖然我不會說這是我最後一次參加財報電話會議，但這是我以後不會再缺席財報電話會議了。當然，我還會參加年度股東大會，但我想以後除非有非常重要的事情要說，否則我可能不會再參加財報電話會議了。

Okay. Thank you. Now let's go to institutional questions. The first one -- and we covered a lot of this already. Can you please update us on time lines for the start of production of Berlin and Austin Model Y, Cybertruck and the Semi? Do you expect the ramp of Cybertruck to be as difficult as it is a new process?

好的，謝謝。現在我們來談談機構方面的問題。第一個問題——我們之前已經討論過很多了——能否請您更新一下柏林和奧斯汀Model Y、Cyber​​truck和Semi的生產啟動時間表？您認為Cyber​​truck的量產爬坡會像它本身的製程一樣困難嗎？

I think Cybertruck ramp will be difficult because it's such a new architecture. I mean it's going to be a great product. It might, I think, be our best product ever. But it -- there's a lot of fundamentally new design ideas on Cybertruck. Nobody's ever really made a car like this before, a vehicle like this before. So there'll probably be challenges because there's so much unexplored territory. Yes.

我認為Cyber​​truck的上市之路會很艱難，因為它採用了全新的架構。我的意思是，它將會是一款很棒的產品。我認為它甚至可能是我們有史以來最好的產品。但是，Cyber​​truck的設計理念非常新穎。以前從來沒有人製造過這樣的汽車或車輛。所以，它可能會面臨很多挑戰，因為還有很多未知的領域。是的。

Thank you. I think question 2 and question 3, we can skip given we have already addressed this. I'll go to question 4. In 5 years' time, how much faster or better could you be at manufacturing capacity expansion using cut and paste? And what are the biggest issues you need to solve to get to that rate?

謝謝。鑑於我們已經討論過，我認為可以跳過問題 2 和問題 3。我直接來看問題 4。五年後，您使用複製貼上的方式擴大生產能力，速度和效率可以提高多少？為了達到這個目標，您需要解決的最大問題是什麼？

Well, like I said, I think we might be the fastest growing company in history for any large manufactured items. So those who have not actually been involved in the manufacturing ramp-up just have no idea how painful and difficult it is. It's like you got to eat a lot of glass, and for [auto] manufacturing ramp, it's hard.

就像我剛才說的，我認為我們可能是歷史上大型製造產品領域成長速度最快的公司。所以那些沒有真正參與產能爬坡的人根本無法想像這有多痛苦和困難。這就像要吞下很多玻璃渣一樣，而對於汽車製造產能爬坡來說，這尤其困難。

Yes. I mean I think if you look at the expansion we've done in Shanghai, that factory was built in less in a year and ramped in 5 to 6 months to full volume. When you...

是的。我的意思是，如果你看看我們在上海的擴張項目，那家工廠不到一年就建成了，並在5到6個月內達到滿載運轉。當你…

I think it's longer than that. It's longer than that, about a year.

我覺得時間比那還要長。大概一年左右吧。

And when you consider cut and paste, we've repeated that in Fremont and whatever. But now with Berlin and Austin, we have new factories and new designs. And so there's always challenges, as you said, Elon, with new designs in ramping that. But I think having teams in 3 locations or 3 continents will definitely expand our ability and our capacity to grow more lines rather than just having the 1 factory in Fremont that we had 1.5 years ago.

說到複製貼上，我們在弗里蒙特等地也重複過這種做法。但現在有了柏林和奧斯汀，我們有了新的工廠和新的設計。正如你所說，埃隆，新設計在產能提升方面總是面臨挑戰。但我認為，在三個地點或三大洲都擁有團隊，肯定會擴大我們的能力和產能，讓我們能夠生產更多生產線，而不是像一年半前那樣只依靠弗里蒙特的一家工廠。

Yes. So I mean, for Shanghai, incredible team both the factory in 11 months, but it took longer than building the factory because it took longer than that to actually reach volume production -- a high-volume production, so took about a year. So when you put a factory in a new geography, in order for that factory to be efficient, you have to localize the supply chain. So there's no such thing as cut and paste. It does not exist.

是的。我的意思是，上海的工廠建設團隊非常出色，僅用了11個月就建成了，但實際投入量產——也就是大規模生產——所花費的時間比建廠本身還要長，大約花了一年時間。所以，當你在一個新的地區建造工廠時，為了確保工廠的效率，你必須實現供應鏈的在地化。因此，根本不存在簡單的複製貼上。

And it obviously be insane to do vehicle production in Europe but send vast numbers of parts from North America. That would be -- that would make the producing in Europe, for example, just crazy. You've got to localize the supply chain to have efficiency and then you're moving as fast as your least lucky, least good supplier.

顯然，在歐洲生產整車卻從北美大量進口零件是荒謬的。比如，那樣一來，在歐洲生產就完全是瘋了。要提高效率，就必須實現供應鏈在地化，否則你的生產速度就只能取決於你最糟糕、最不可靠的供應商了。

Yes. It's only supply chains where you go like 3 or 4 layers deep. It's frankly -- I feel at times that we are inheriting all force majeure or -- so if anything goes wrong anywhere on Earth, something happens to mess up the supply chain. So yes. Yes.

是的。只有那種三、四層深的供應鏈才會出現問題。坦白說——我有時覺得我們好像要承擔所有不可抗力因素，所以如果地球上任何地方出了問題，供應鏈都會受到影響。所以，是的。是的。

I think the human capital growth though of having factories here, Berlin, Shanghai, Fremont does allow us to maybe not exponentially grow but, well, hopefully grow.

我認為，在這裡、柏林、上海、弗里蒙特擁有工廠所帶來的人力資本成長，或許能讓我們實現指數級成長，但希望能實現成長。

We are exponentially growing.

我們正呈指數級成長。

Yes, hopefully maintain that exponential growth.

是的，希望能夠維持這種指數級成長。

Yes. So yes. It's also -- it takes a while to hire old people and train old people to operate the factory. The factory is like a giant cybernetic collective, and you can't just hire 10,000 people and have them work instantly. It's not possible. I really encourage more people to get involved in manufacturing.

是的。沒錯。而且，僱用老年人並培訓他們操作工廠也需要時間。工廠就像一個巨大的控制論集體，你不可能一下子僱用一萬人就讓他們立刻開始工作。這是不可能的。我真心鼓勵更多的人投身製造業。

I think especially in the U.S., like this has just not been an area where all that many smart people have gone into. I think U.S. has an overallocation of talent in finance and law. It's both a criticism and a compliment. I'm not saying we shouldn't have people in finance and law. I'm just saying that this might be -- maybe we have too many smart people in those areas. So...

我覺得尤其在美國，好像很多聰明人都沒有進入這個領域。我認為美國的金融和法律人才已經過剩了。這既是批評也是讚揚。我不是說我們不應該有從事金融和法律的人才。我只是說，或許──也許我們在這些領域已經有太多聰明人了。所以…

Manufacturing is fun.

製造業很有趣。

Yes, manufacturing is great. It's a very interesting problem to solve. And obviously, you can't have stuff unless someone makes it. That's how we kick this up. Yes.

是的，製造業很棒。這是一個非常有趣的待解決的問題。顯然，沒有製造者，你不可能擁有任何東西。這就是我們推動製造業發展的方式。沒錯。

Okay. Thank you very much. And let's go to the last investor question. Does Tesla plan to offer more services beyond FSD or high-speed connectivity as part of its subscription bundle going forward? What areas, in particular, present an opportunity?

好的，非常感謝。我們來看最後一個投資者問題。特斯拉未來是否計劃在其訂閱套餐中提供除FSD或高速網路連線之外的更多服務？具體哪些領域存在發展機會？

Yes. We don't have a lot of ideas on this, to be frank. Really, full self-driving is the main thing. Things are obviously headed towards a fully autonomous electric vehicle future. And I think Tesla is well positioned and, frankly, is the leader objectively in both of those arenas, electrification and autonomy.

是的。坦白說，我們在這方面並沒有太多想法。實際上，完全自動駕駛才是關鍵。很明顯，未來正朝著完全自動駕駛電動車的方向發展。我認為特斯拉佔據了有利地位，坦白說，在電氣化和自動駕駛這兩個領域，特斯拉都是客觀的領導者。

So it's always tempting to try to find analogies, but -- with other companies or whatever, but really the value of fully electric autonomous fleet is generally gigantic, boggles the mind really. So that will be one of the most valuable things that is ever done in the history of civilization.

所以人們總是忍不住想找些類比，但——無論是和其他公司還是其他什麼——全電動自動駕駛車隊的價值總體來說是巨大的，簡直令人難以置信。這將是人類文明史上最有價值的成就之一。

Thank you very much. And now let's go back to analyst Q&A, please.

非常感謝。現在我們繼續進行分析師問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Our first question comes from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

我們的第一個問題來自奧本海默公司的科林魯許。

Can you speak to the attach rates for FSD so far and what you're targeting in terms of the subscription levels?

能否談談目前FSD的附加率以及你們在訂閱用戶數量方面的目標？

Yes. It's not worth commenting on right now. It's not meaningful. We really need full self-driving, at least the beta, to be widely available, so anyone who wants it can get it. Otherwise, it'd be pointless to read anything into where things are right now. So, yes.

是的。現在評論這件事沒什麼意義，也沒什麼價值。我們真正需要的是完全自動駕駛技術，至少是測試版，能夠廣泛普及，讓所有想用的人都能用上。否則，現在的情況就沒有任何意義。所以，是的。

Okay. And then just the follow-up there is about the cadence of the regulatory environment keeping up with the technology. Are you seeing meaningful evolution in terms of the regulators really understanding the technology and beginning to set some standards here sometime in the near term?

好的。接下來想問的是，監管環境的發展節奏是否跟得上科技進步。您是否看到監管機構在真正理解這項技術方面取得了實質進展，並計劃在近期內制定一些標準？

At least in the U.S., we don't see regulation as a fundamental limiter. We've got -- we're obviously going to make the work and then demonstrate that the reliability is significantly in excess of the average human driver for it to be allowed -- for people to be able to use it without paying attention to the road.

至少在美國，我們不認為監管是根本性的限制因素。我們顯然會先完成相關工作，然後證明其可靠性遠遠超過普通駕駛員，這樣才能允許人們在不注意路況的情況下使用它。

But I think we have a massive fleet, so it will be, I think, straightforward to make the argument on statistical grounds just based on the number of interventions or especially interventions that would result in a crash. At scale, we think we'll have [billions] of miles of travel to be able to show that it is the safety of the car with autopilot on is 100% or 200% or more safer than the average human driver. At that point, I think it would be unconscionable to -- not to allow autopilot because the car just comes way less safe.

但我認為我們擁有龐大的車隊，因此，僅憑統計數據，特別是那些會導致碰撞的干預次數，就能輕鬆論證自動駕駛的安全性。我們預計，在規模上，我們將擁有數十億英里的行駛里程，足以證明開啟自動駕駛功能的車輛比普通人類駕駛員的安全性高出100%、200%甚至更多。到那時，如果因為車輛安全性大幅降低而禁止使用自動駕駛功能，我認為是不可理喻的。

It will be sort of like if you take the elevator analogy. Back in the day, you used to have elevator operators with like a big sort of switch that operates the elevator and moves between floors. But they get tired or maybe drunk or something or distracted, and every time and again, somebody would be kind of sheared in half between floors. That's kind of the situation we have with cars. Autonomy will become so safe that it will be unsafe to manually operate the car, relatively speaking.

這有點像是電梯的例子。以前，電梯操作員會用一個大開關來控制電梯在樓層間運作。但他們可能會疲勞、喝醉、分心，結果就是，常常會有人在樓層間被撞成兩截。汽車的情況也差不多。自動駕駛技術發展到一定程度後，相對而言，手動駕駛反而會變得不安全。

And today, obviously, we just get in an elevator. We press the button for which floor we want, and it just takes us there safely. And it would be quite alarming if elevators were operated by a person with a giant switch. That's how we'll be with cars.

而如今，我們只要走進電梯，按下想去的樓層按鈕，電梯就能安全地把我們送到目的地。如果電梯是由一個人拿著一個巨大的開關來操作，那就叫可怕。汽車將來也會變成那樣。

Next question comes from Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

Your cost of goods sold per vehicle is already down to the mid-$37,000 range in the quarter. It's down $5,000 year-over-year despite some of the inefficiencies that you talked about. And I know that a lot is going to change from here just given how mix is going to evolve. But if you're successful on the structural pack and front and rear castings and the launch of the 4680 cell, can you just maybe give us a sense of what a successful outcome would look like maybe a year from now? Obviously, a lot has to go right. But just any kind of broad framework for us to think about?

本季每輛車的銷售成本已降至 37,000 美元左右。儘管您提到了一些效率低下的問題，但同比仍下降了 5,000 美元。我知道，鑑於產品組合的演變，未來許多情況都會改變。但是，如果您在結構組件、前後鑄件以及 4680 電池的推出方面都取得成功，您能否大致描述一下一年後成功的結果會是什麼樣子？顯然，很多因素都需要順利進行。但您能否提供一個大致的框架供我們思考？

Yes. It's really difficult for us to -- to make specific predictions, it's very difficult. I think we feel confident of, let's say, at least a 50% growth year-over-year next year and maybe it's 100%, but that's -- you need a lot of crystal balls to figure out exactly what it's going to be. And we're just -- it is literally impossible to make a specific prediction. But at least 50%, maybe 100%, something like that.

是的。我們很難做出具體的預測，真的非常難。我們比較有信心，比如說，明年至少能比去年同期成長50%，甚至可能達到100%，但這——你需要很多水晶球才能準確地預測出來。我們真的——根本不可能做出具體的預測。但至少50%，也許100%，大概就是這樣。

Okay. And maybe just separately from this, can you just clarify what the status is of some of the advances in battery manufacturing, things like dry cathode mixing that you talked about on Battery Day? What's the time line? How are those evolving?

好的。另外，您能否單獨說明電池製造領域的一些進展情況，例如您在電池日上提到的乾式陰極混合技術？時間表是什麼？這些技術的發展如何？

Yes. We commented on it today already actually. But in the facility at Kato, over 90% of the -- like processes have demonstrated rate there, but we are limited by the unlucky few that have not, and that's what we're working on. One of them that Elon mentioned was running the full-scale cathode calendar. We're working through some improvements that we need to make to that equipment and to the actual raw material itself to not have those limitations. But again, it's an engineering problem. It's not a question of if. It's a question of when.

是的。我們今天其實已經討論過這個問題了。在加藤工廠，超過90%的類似工藝都已達到生產效率，但少數幾個工藝尚未達到，這限制了我們的生產，而我們正在努力解決這個問題。埃隆提到的其中一個問題是全尺寸陰極壓延製程。我們正在努力改進這套設備以及原料本身，以克服這些限制。但歸根結底，這是一個工程問題。這不是能不能解決的問題，而是何時解決的問題。

On the mixing side, we haven't actually really had any challenges specific to your question. Fundamentally, we're still happy with the dry process direction in terms of the factory footprint, complexity, utility consumption, space and overall complexity simplification. And I mean -- and the costs associated with everything that I just mentioned.

在混合方面，我們實際上並沒有遇到您提到的具體挑戰。從根本上講，就工廠佔地面積、工藝複雜性、公用設施消耗、空間利用以及整體工藝簡化而言，我們仍然對乾法工藝方向感到滿意。我的意思是——還有我剛才提到的所有相關成本。

Yes. And don't want to overemphasize dry cathode, I mean, it is -- I don't know, maybe it's like 10% or 15% of the cost improvement or something like that. I don't know, 20% maybe of wet...

是的。我不想過度強調乾陰極，我的意思是，它——我不知道，也許能降低成本10%或15%左右。我不知道，濕陰極可能降低20%…

Yes, 10%, closer to 10%.

是的，10%，接近10%。

Yes. So it's like -- just like people don't think like this is like the messiah or something. Wet versus dry reduces -- to dry is like 10% less cost than wet. So it's not -- now 10%, still nothing to sneeze at, especially if you're making hundreds of gigawatt hours a year, but it's not the messiah basically. Yes.

是的。所以就像——就像人們不會把它看作救世主一樣。濕式發電和乾式發電相比，成本降低－乾式發電比濕式發電便宜約10%。所以，雖然只有10%，但這仍然不容小覷，尤其如果你每年生產數百吉瓦時電力，但基本上它不是什麼救世主。是的。

Yes.

是的。

Next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

下一個問題來自新街研究公司的皮埃爾·費拉古。

I have another question actually on batteries but on a slightly different angle. I was wondering how you're looking at your sourcing strategy for the 4680. You've talked a lot about all the work you're doing to develop your in-house production. But what about asking other battery manufacturers to do 4680 cells with their own technology, maybe less innovation than what you guys are lining up internally? And I was wondering if the first 4680 cells that we'll see on the road will definitely come from Tesla's own manufacturing lines or whether they could be coming actually from outside suppliers as well. And I have a quick follow-up.

我其實還有個關於電池的問題，不過角度略有不同。我想了解一下你們是如何看待4680電池的採購策略的。你們之前多次提到你們在自主研發上所做的努力。但是，你們有沒有考慮過讓其他電池廠商用他們自己的技術生產4680電芯呢？雖然他們的技術可能不如你們內部研發的那麼創新。我想知道，我們最終在路上看到的4680電芯是否一定來自特斯拉自己的生產線，還是也可能來自外部供應商？最後，我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. We are, in fact, working with our existing suppliers to produce 4680 format cells. And this is just a guess right now, but I see us sort of like consolidating around 4680 nickel-based structural pack and for long-range vehicles. And then not necessarily a 4680 format but some other format for iron-based cells. And so we -- right now, we kind of have the Baskin-Robbins of batteries situation with us. We have so many formats and so many chemistries that it's like we've got like 36 flavors of battery this way.

是的。事實上，我們正​​在與現有供應商合作生產4,680規格的電芯。目前這只是我的猜測，但我認為我們可能會集中生產4680鎳基電池組，用於長續航里程的車輛。而鐵基電池則不一定是4680規格，而是其他規格。所以，我們現在的情況有點像是電池界的「巴斯金-羅賓斯」（冰淇淋連鎖店）。我們有太多規格和化學成分的電池，感覺就像有36種不同的電池產品。

This is just -- this results in an engineering drag coefficient where each variant of cell chemistry and format requires a certain amount of engineering to maintain it and troubleshoot, and this inhibits our forward progress. So it is going to be important to consolidate to just maybe ideally 2 form factors, maybe 3 but ideally 2 and then just 1 nickel chemistry and 1 iron chemistry and -- so we don't have to troubleshoot so many different variants.

這會導致工程阻力係數，因為每種電池化學成分和規格都需要一定的工程維護和故障排除工作，這阻礙了我們前進的步伐。因此，將規格精簡到理想情況下只有兩種，最多三種，但最好是兩種；然後只保留一種鎳基電池和一種鐵基電池——這樣我們就無需為這麼多不同的規格進行故障排除了。

Yes. And towards that end, we are engaging with the suppliers that we've had good partnerships with on 4680 designs to enable that simplification, and so far, so good. They're working on -- they're bringing their core competencies to bear on that. We're not mandating like what's going on inside, but it's been a good collaboration.

是的。為此，我們正在與先前在4680設計方面合作良好的供應商接洽，以簡化流程，目前進展順利。他們正在運用各自的核心競爭力來推進這項工作。我們並沒有強制要求他們按照內部流程操作，但合作一直很愉快。

Yes. And we do expect to see significant increases in supply from our existing suppliers in addition to the cells that Tesla's making. So it's both. Sometimes I get questions from our cell suppliers of like are we just going to make all the cells ourselves and we're like no. Please make as many as you possibly can and supply them to us. We have a significant unmet demand in stationary storage.

是的。除了特斯拉自己生產的電池之外，我們預計現有供應商的供應量也會大幅增加。所以兩者兼而有之。有時我們的電池供應商會問我，我們是否打算自己生產所有電池，我們的回答是：不行。請盡可能多生產並供應給我們。我們在固定式儲能方面有巨大的未滿足需求。

Megapack is basically sold out until the end of next year, I believe. We have a massive backlog in Powerwall demand. The demand of Powerwall versus production is an insane mismatch. Now part of that problem is also the semiconductor issue. So we use a lot of the same chips in the Powerwall as you do in a car. So it's like which one do you want to make? Cars or Powerwalls? So we need to make cars, so therefore, Powerwall production has been reduced.

Megapack 基本上已經售罄，預計要到明年年底才能再次供貨。 Powerwall 的需求積壓非常嚴重。 Powerwall 的需求量和產能有嚴重不符。造成這種情況的部分原因也與半導體有關。 Powerwall 中使用的許多晶片與汽車中使用的晶片相同。所以問題在於，你想生產哪一種？汽車還是 Powerwall？我們需要優先生產汽車，因此 Powerwall 的產量必須減少。

But as that semiconductor shortage is alleviated, then we can massively ramp up Powerwall production. I think we have a chance of hitting an annualized rate of 1 million units of Powerwall next year maybe towards -- on the order of 20,000 a week but again, dependent on cell supply and semiconductors.

但隨著半導體短缺問題的緩解，我們就能大幅提升Powerwall的產量。我認為我們明年可望實現Powerwall年產量100萬台的目標，或許能達到每週2萬台左右，但這仍取決於電池和半導體的供應情況。

But in terms of demand, I think there's probably demand for in excess of 1 million Powerwalls per year and actually -- and just a vast amount of Megapacks for utilities. As the world transitions to a sustainable energy production, solar and wind are intermittent and, by their nature, really need battery packs in order to provide a steady flow of electricity. And when you look at all of the utilities in the world, this is a vast amount of batteries that are needed. That's why long term, we really think sort of, combined, Tesla and suppliers need to produce at least 1,000 gigawatt hours a year and maybe 2,000 gigawatt hours a year.

但就需求而言，我認為每年Powerwall的需求可能超過100萬台，而且實際上，公用事業公司對Megapack的需求量也相當巨大。隨著世界向永續能源生產轉型，太陽能和風能具有間歇性，因此，它們本身就需要電池組來提供穩定的電力供應。放眼全球所有公用事業公司，所需的電池數量非常龐大。這就是為什麼我們認為，從長遠來看，特斯拉及其供應商每年至少需要生產1000吉瓦時，甚至可能需要2000吉瓦時。

Okay. Great. And I have a quick question. I know, Elon, you don't think it's meaningful today, but I'd be curious to know if you have any stats about when you announced the new pricing on the FSD moving from $10,000 from -- to $199 with the lock-in. I'd be curious to understand how it affected behavior and if you saw like a massive uptake in the service. And I'm not thinking about people looking at it as an FSD but more to try the most advanced version of autopilot and to try it. So in the first days, you've announced the pricing. Have you seen like a very significant spike in the take rate? And can you give us a sense of how big it was?

好的，太好了。我有個問題想問一下。我知道伊隆，你可能覺得現在問這個問題沒什麼意義，但我很想知道，你有沒有關於FSD新價格從1萬美元降到199美元（含合約）的統計數據？我想了解這個價格調整對使用者行為的影響，以及這項服務的使用者量是否出現了大幅成長。我指的不是人們把它當作FSD來體驗，而是想試試最先進的自動駕駛功能。所以，在你宣布新價格後的頭幾天，你是否看到用戶量出現了顯著增長？你能大概說說成長幅度有多大嗎？

Okay. So you're asking like is the FSD take rate too expensive and that's why we're doing subscription? Or I'm not sure if I understand your question correctly.

好的。所以你的意思是，FSD（全自動駕駛）的普及率太高，所以我們才推出訂閱模式？或者我不太確定我是否正確理解了你的問題。

No, my question is from the time you announced like the subscription at the $199 per month, how much did like the take rate increase, like the percentage of people who basically took the subscription as they bought a new car versus how it was when they had to pay $10,000 upfront.

不，我的問題是，自從你們宣布每月 199 美元的訂閱價格以來，訂閱率提高了多少？例如，有多少人像買新車一樣選擇訂閱，與之前需要預付 10,000 美元的情況相比，訂閱率提高了多少？

Yes. This is Zach here. I mean I think we're still early in understanding how FSD subscription will unfold, but a couple of data points here. So we took a look at our backlog to see, of customers in our backlog who have ordered FSD, did they cancel presumably to go to subscription after they take delivery. And the level of cancellations there was we're not seeing cannibalization there. It's possible that, that changes, but that was also part of our pricing strategy at $99 and $199.

是的，我是Zach。我的意思是，我們目前對FSD訂閱模式的了解還處於早期階段，但這裡有一些數據點。我們查看了積壓訂單，看看那些已經訂購FSD的客戶，在提車後是否取消了訂單，轉而選擇訂閱。取消訂單的比例並不高，我們目前還沒有看到FSD訂閱模式出現蠶食效應。當然，這種情況可能會改變，但這與我們99美元和199美元的定價策略有關。

Yes. I mean we -- I think like any given price is going to be wrong, so we'll just adjust it over time as we see the value proposition makes sense to people. So we're just really -- I'm not thinking about this a lot right now. We need to make full self-driving work in order for it to be a compelling value proposition. Otherwise, people are kind of betting on the future.

是的。我的意思是，我覺得任何既定的價格都會有偏差，所以我們會根據市場對價值主張的接受程度來調整價格。所以，我現在真的沒怎麼考慮這個問題。我們需要先讓完全自動駕駛功能真正發揮作用，才能使其成為一個有吸引力的價值主張。否則，人們就只是在押注未來而已。

I mean, like right now, is it -- does it make sense for somebody to do FSD subscription? I think it's debatable. But once we have full self-driving widely deployed, then the value proposition will be clear. And at that point, I think basically everyone will use it or be rare -- a rare individual who doesn't.

我的意思是，就目前而言，訂閱FSD服務對某些人來說有意義嗎？我認為這還有待商榷。但一旦完全自動駕駛技術廣泛應用，它的價值主張就會顯而易見。到那時，我認為基本上所有人都會使用這項服務，除非是極少數人不用。

Okay. Thank you very much for your help, and I think that's all the time we have for today. Thanks for all your questions, and we'll speak to you again in 3 months' time. Have a good day, everyone.

好的。非常感謝您的幫助，我想我們今天的時間就到此為止了。感謝大家提出的所有問題，我們三個月後再見。祝大家今天愉快。

All right. Thank you.

好的，謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。