特斯拉 (TSLA) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Tesla's Q4 2020 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎收聽特斯拉 2020 年第四季度財務業績和問答網絡直播。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Mr. Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給您的發言人，投資者關係高級總監 Martin Viecha 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Sherry, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝雪莉，大家下午好。

Welcome to Tesla's Fourth Quarter 2020 Q&A Webcast.

歡迎收聽特斯拉 2020 年第四季度網絡直播。

I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives.

今天，埃隆·馬斯克、扎卡里·柯克霍恩和其他一些高管加入了我的行列。

Our Q4 results were announced at about 1 p.m.

我們的第四季度業績在下午 1 點左右公佈。

Pacific Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

我們在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上發布的更新平台中的太平洋時間。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。

These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。

Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

(Operator Instructions) But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.

（操作員說明）但在我們進入問答環節之前，Elon 有一些開場白。

Elon?

埃隆?

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So just to recap the year, 2020 was a defining year for us on many levels.

因此，回顧一下這一年，2020 年在許多層面上對我們來說都是決定性的一年。

Despite a challenging environment, we reached an important milestone of producing and delivering 0.5 million cars.

儘管環境充滿挑戰，我們還是達到了生產和交付 50 萬輛汽車的重要里程碑。

And I'd just like to once again thank the people at Tesla for an incredible effort.

我想再次感謝特斯拉員工付出的難以置信的努力。

We delivered almost as many cars last year as we produced in our entire history.

我們去年交付的汽車數量幾乎與我們整個歷史上生產的汽車數量一樣多。

So really an incredible growth rate and despite a very challenging 2020.

儘管 2020 年充滿挑戰，但增長率確實令人難以置信。

So my hat is off.

所以我的帽子掉了。

It's such an honor to work with such great people at Tesla.

在特斯拉與如此優秀的人一起工作是一種榮幸。

So -- and full year, we achieved free cash flow of nearly $2.8 billion after spending more than $3 billion on building new factories and other expenditures.

因此，全年，在花費超過 30 億美元建造新工廠和其他支出後，我們實現了近 28 億美元的自由現金流。

We reached industry-leading GAAP operating margins in addition to positive net income and record cash flow.

除了正的淨收入和創紀錄的現金流外，我們還達到了行業領先的 GAAP 營業利潤率。

Regarding capacity expansion, while we focus on execution, we continue to build a lot of new capacity.

在產能擴張方面，我們在專注於執行的同時，繼續建設大量新產能。

We started producing the Model Y out of Fremont and almost reached full production speed.

我們開始在弗里蒙特生產 Model Y，幾乎達到了全速生產。

We ramped the Model 3 in Shanghai to more than 5,000 cars a week sustainably, and Shanghai continues to grow rapidly.

我們將在上海的 Model 3 可持續地提高到每週 5,000 多輛汽車，而且上海繼續快速增長。

We introduced the heat pump to all of our vehicles.

我們為所有車輛引入了熱泵。

We ramped the single piece -- we started and we're able to ramp to volume production the single-piece castings for Model Y. This is where -- for the first time in history, the entire rear third skeleton of the car is being cast as a single piece in the largest and most advanced casting machine ever made.

我們增加了單件——我們開始並且我們能夠批量生產 Model Y 的單件鑄件。這是歷史上第一次，汽車的整個後第三骨架在有史以來最大和最先進的鑄造機中作為單件鑄造。

We built a Model Y factory in China from start to finish in 1 year.

我們在 1 年內從頭到尾在中國建立了 Y 型工廠。

We're also building Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, which we expect to start production later this year.

我們還在建造 Giga Berlin 和 Giga Texas，我們預計將在今年晚些時候開始生產。

And lastly, we built a cell -- a battery cell factory in the Bay Area.

最後，我們在灣區建造了一個電池——電池工廠。

And this -- even though it is a pilot plant, it is -- its capacity is large enough that it would be in the -- probably the top 10 battery cell factories on earth despite being a pilot plant.

這——儘管它是一個試點工廠，它的容量足夠大，它可能會進入——儘管它是一個試點工廠，但它可能是地球上排名前 10 的電池工廠。

Regarding the new Model S and X, we are launching the -- we're super excited to announce the new Model S and Model X Plaid are in production now and will be delivered in February.

關於新款 Model S 和 X，我們正在推出——我們非常高興地宣布新款 Model S 和 Model X Plaid 現已投入生產，將於 2 月交付。

So we've been able to bring forward the Plaid, Model S and X. And so Model S will be delivered in February and Model X a little later.

所以我們已經能夠推出格紋、Model S 和 X。所以 Model S 將在 2 月交付，而 Model X 將在稍後交付。

For the Model S Plaid, we're actually in production now and we'll be delivering next month.

對於 Model S Plaid，我們實際上正在生產中，我們將在下個月交付。

So this is a tri-motor Model S with a completely new interior.

所以這是一款擁有全新內飾的三電機 Model S。

There are actually a lot of great things about this.

這實際上有很多很棒的事情。

I'll do another call about the Model S later.

稍後我會再打一次關於 Model S 的電話。

But it's really a tremendous improvement over the prior version.

但與之前的版本相比，它確實是一個巨大的改進。

And the Model S will be the first -- this Model S Plaid will be the first production car ever that is able to go 0 to 60 miles an hour in under 2 seconds.

而 Model S 將是第一款——這款 Model S Plaid 將是第一款能夠在 2 秒內以每小時 0 到 60 英里的速度行駛的量產車。

So no production car ever has been able to get below 2 seconds, 0 to 60.

因此，沒有量產車能夠達到 2 秒以下，0 到 60 秒。

This is a luxury sedan that is able to go 0 to 60 in less than 2 seconds and will have the ability to seat up to 7 people with the third-row seats.

這是一款豪華轎車，能夠在不到 2 秒的時間內從 0 加速到 60，第三排座椅最多可容納 7 人。

So this is pretty nice.

所以這很不錯。

This is faster, to be clear, than any car.

很明顯，這比任何汽車都快。

It's not like there was a different type of car, like a 2-door sports car that was able to do fast -- it's the fastest accelerating car ever made for -- that is allowed to go on roads in history.

這並不是說有一種不同類型的汽車，比如能夠快速行駛的兩門跑車——它是有史以來加速最快的汽車——被允許在歷史上上路。

And like I said, we'll start delivering it in a matter of weeks.

就像我說的，我們將在幾週內開始交付。

And actually, we'll obviously get into the details what the Model S changes may be later this week or next.

實際上，我們顯然會在本週晚些時候或下周詳細了解 Model S 的變化。

But it's really better in many ways.

但它在很多方面確實更好。

We will be actually raising the price of Model S for these new models of -- the old model -- the new model will be $10,000 more.

實際上，我們將提高這些新型號的 Model S 的價格——舊型號——新型號將增加 10,000 美元。

So hopefully, people aren't too upset if they bought the old model last month.

因此，希望人們在上個月購買舊型號時不會太沮喪。

But this one, $10,000 more.

但是這個，10,000多美元。

So yes, we think it's probably the best car of any kind at any price available in the world today.

所以是的，我們認為它可能是當今世界上任何價格中最好的汽車。

So then with regard to Full Self-Driving, we've made massive progress on Full Self-Driving.

那麼關於全自動駕駛，我們在全自動駕駛方面取得了巨大的進步。

I recommend watching the videos of our public beta.

我建議觀看我們公開測試版的視頻。

So we've got, I think, almost 1,000 people in the beta at this point.

因此，我認為，目前我們有近 1,000 人處於測試階段。

And with each successful release of the beta FSD software, it just gets -- it's really improving rapidly.

並且隨著測試版 FSD 軟件的每次成功發布，它都會得到 - 它確實在迅速改進。

It's not very common for -- I drive the latest roads.

這不是很常見 - 我開最新的道路。

It's very common for me to have no interventions on drives that I do, including drives to a place that I've never been to.

對我來說，對我所做的驅動器沒有乾預是很常見的，包括驅動器到一個我從未去過的地方。

So these are not preplanned routes.

所以這些不是預先計劃好的路線。

The car has never been there before.

這輛車以前從未到過那裡。

And it's now actually more -- it's more common than not for the car to have no interventions, even on a complex drive.

現在實際上更多了——即使在復雜的駕駛中，汽車也沒有乾預比沒有乾預更為普遍。

So -- and this is -- basically, I'm highly confident the car will be able to drive itself with reliability in excess of human this year.

所以 - 這就是 - 基本上，我非常有信心這輛車今年能夠以超過人類的可靠性駕駛自己。

This is a very big deal.

這是一件大事。

And thinking about like how does one justify the value of the company being where it is, I think there is a way, just with back-of-the-envelope math, to potentially justify it, where if Tesla ships, let's say, hypothetically, $50 billion or $60 billion worth of vehicles and those vehicles become Full Self-Driving and can be used in robotaxis -- used as robotaxis, the utility increases from an average of 12 hours a week to potentially an average of 60 hours a week if they're capable of serving as robotaxi.

想想人們如何證明公司的價值是合理的, 價值 500 億美元或 600 億美元的車輛，這些車輛成為全自動駕駛，可用於自動駕駛出租車——用作自動駕駛出租車，其效用從平均每週 12 小時增加到平均每週 60 小時，如果他們能夠充當機器人出租車。

So that's like roughly a 5x increase in utility.

所以這就像效用大約增加了 5 倍。

But let's -- even if you say like, okay, let's just assume that the car becomes twice as useful as -- not 5x as useful but merely twice as useful, that would be a doubling again of the revenue of the company, which is almost entirely gross margin.

但是讓我們 - 即使你說喜歡，好吧，讓我們假設汽車變得有用兩倍 - 不是有用的 5 倍，而是有用的兩倍，這將是公司收入的兩倍，也就是幾乎完全是毛利率。

So it would mean -- it would be like if you made $50 million -- $50 billion worth of cars, it will be like having [$50 million] of incremental profit basically from that because of the software.

所以這意味著——如果你賺了 5000 萬美元——價值 500 億美元的汽車，這就像因為軟件而基本上從中獲得了 [5000 萬美元] 的增量利潤。

So -- and if that was the case, then yes, you get 20 PE on that.

所以——如果是這樣的話，那麼是的，你會得到 20 PE。

It's like $1 trillion and the company is still in high-growth mode.

這就像 1 萬億美元，該公司仍處於高速增長模式。

So I think there is a way to sort of like justify the valuation of the company where it is using just the cars and nothing else, the cars with FSD.

所以我認為有一種方法可以證明公司的估值是合理的，它只使用汽車而不是其他東西，使用 FSD 的汽車。

And I suspect at least a number of investors are taking that approach.

我懷疑至少有一些投資者正在採取這種方法。

So in conclusion, while 2020 was a turning point for Tesla in terms of profitability, we believe this is just the beginning.

總而言之，雖然 2020 年是特斯拉盈利能力的轉折點，但我們認為這僅僅是個開始。

We think 2021 is going to be even more exciting.

我們認為 2021 年將更加令人興奮。

And you don't know what to expect in a given year.

而且您不知道在特定年份會發生什麼。

Obviously, last year, we did not -- there were many things we did not expect.

顯然，去年我們沒有——有很多事情是我們沒有預料到的。

But assuming that '21 is a relatively normal year from an external standpoint, I think it's going to be a great year for Tesla.

但假設從外部角度來看，21 年是相對正常的一年，我認為這對特斯拉來說將是一個偉大的一年。

We've got a ton of -- many great new products coming out.

我們有很多——很多很棒的新產品問世。

We've got factories that are -- advanced factories that can start production.

我們有工廠——可以開始生產的先進工廠。

It will also make it easier how you're having a factory in Berlin, one, and in Texas second, just from a logistics standpoint.

僅從物流的角度來看，它還將使您在柏林和德克薩斯第二的工廠變得更容易。

And Texas can help supply the Eastern half of the U.S. and Berlin can help supply Europe.

德克薩斯州可以幫助供應美國東半部，柏林可以幫助供應歐洲。

And there's just fewer cars on boats, much less capital tied up with built cars that are on boats or going -- being transported to customers.

船上的汽車越來越少，與在船上或行駛中的汽車相關的資本也更少——被運送給客戶。

And I think the fundamental efficiency of the company will be much better with the factories -- at least having factories on each continent and having 2 factories in the U.S.

而且我認為工廠的基本效率會更好——至少在每個大陸都有工廠，在美國有兩家工廠。

So I'm super excited about the future, and yes, we look forward to making it happen.

所以我對未來感到非常興奮，是的，我們期待著實現它。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And I think our CFO, Zach Kirkhorn, has some opening remarks as well.

我認為我們的首席財務官 Zach Kirkhorn 也有一些開場白。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

As Elon mentioned, 2020 has been an extremely successful year while managing through many unforeseen and unexpected challenges.

正如埃隆所說，2020 年是非常成功的一年，同時應對了許多不可預見和意想不到的挑戰。

On cash, we continue to generate strong free cash flows, reaching a record $1.9 billion in Q4 alongside growth and investment for future programs.

在現金方面，我們繼續產生強勁的自由現金流，在第四季度達到創紀錄的 19 億美元，同時對未來項目進行增長和投資。

Additionally, we've been able to reduce our use of debt and various working capital lines, including settling $2 billion of convertible debt in Q4, which will continue into Q1.

此外，我們已經能夠減少對債務和各種營運資金線的使用，包括在第四季度結算 20 億美元的可轉換債務，這將持續到第一季度。

For net income, we achieved our first calendar year and 6 sequential quarters of profitability.

對於淨收入，我們實現了第一個日曆年和連續 6 個季度的盈利。

In addition, auto gross margin, excluding credits, improved from 2019 to 2020 despite reductions in ASP and inefficiencies from new product launches and transitions.

此外，儘管平均售價下降以及新產品發布和過渡導致效率低下，但不包括信貸在內的汽車毛利率從 2019 年到 2020 年有所改善。

On Q4 specifically, this was a noisy quarter.

特別是在第四季度，這是一個嘈雜的季度。

So let's unpack a few things.

所以讓我們打開一些東西。

Stock-based comp increased, part of which is driven by the rise of the stock price over the course of our 2020 employee performance grant process, and a portion of which is unique to Q4 only.

基於股票的薪酬增加，部分原因是在我們 2020 年員工績效補助過程中股價上漲，部分原因是第四季度獨有的。

The impact of SBC increases is seen across both COGS as well as operating expenses.

SBC 增加的影響體現在 COGS 和運營費用中。

Automotive gross margin in Q4 was primarily impacted by 2 things.

第四季度汽車毛利率主要受到兩件事的影響。

First, we invested in improving our products built in Fremont, including converting over to the new Model S and Model X, launching the single-piece castings on Model Y and introducing heat pump on Model 3. Second, logistics and labor costs were impacted due to supply chain instability and pandemic inefficiencies.

首先，我們投資改進我們在弗里蒙特製造的產品，包括轉換為新的 Model S 和 Model X，在 Model Y 上推出單件鑄件，在 Model 3 上引入熱泵。其次，物流和勞動力成本受到影響供應鏈不穩定和大流行的低效率。

Adjusting for items such as these, as we do in our internal management views, we saw an improvement in auto gross margin.

正如我們在內部管理視圖中所做的那樣，對這些項目進行調整後，我們看到汽車毛利率有所改善。

Our services and other P&L was impacted by many of the same factors just mentioned, including onboarding costs associated with new service capacity.

我們的服務和其他損益受到剛才提到的許多相同因素的影響，包括與新服務能力相關的入職成本。

However, what's most important here is that we've accelerated the growth in service capacity and will continue to drive capacity expansion as fast as possible.

但是，這裡最重要的是，我們加快了服務能力的增長，並將繼續以最快的速度推動容量擴張。

On energy gross margin, we saw an impact from Solar Roof-related ramp costs and typical seasonality in the lease/PPA business.

在能源毛利率方面，我們看到了太陽能屋頂相關的坡道成本和租賃/PPA 業務的典型季節性的影響。

OpEx as a percentage of revenue continues to reduce despite impacts from items mentioned as well as increased investment in development of future products.

儘管受到上述項目的影響以及對未來產品開發的投資增加，運營支出佔收入的百分比繼續下降。

Finally, the early settlement of our convertible notes resulted in an additional $100 million of interest expense for the quarter.

最後，我們可轉換票據的提前結算導致本季度額外支付了 1 億美元的利息費用。

All that being said, nothing has changed about our view that operating margin will continue to grow and remain industry-leading.

儘管如此，我們認為營業利潤率將繼續增長並保持行業領先地位的觀點沒有任何改變。

As we look forward, 2021 may be our most meaningful step forward yet as we see the benefits of long-standing investments in capacity and technology.

展望未來，2021 年可能是我們向前邁出的最有意義的一步，因為我們看到了對產能和技術進行長期投資的好處。

The range of possible outcomes this year is wide given the magnitude of launches.

鑑於發射的規模，今年可能的結果範圍很廣。

There's a few things we should keep in mind.

我們應該記住一些事情。

We continue to expect a long-term volume CAGR of 50%, of which we may materially exceed this in 2021.

我們繼續預計長期銷量複合年增長率為 50%，我們可能會在 2021 年大幅超過這一數字。

As we increase production rates, volumes will skew towards the second half of the year, and ramp inefficiencies will be a part of this year's story and are necessary to achieve our long-term goals.

隨著我們提高生產率，產量將向下半年傾斜，坡道效率低下將成為今年故事的一部分，對於實現我們的長期目標是必要的。

Specifically for Q1, our volumes will have the benefit of early Model Y ramp in Shanghai.

特別是對於第一季度，我們的銷量將受益於上海早期的 Model Y 量產。

However, S and X production will be low due to the transition to the newly rearchitected products.

但是，由於向新重新設計的產品過渡，S 和 X 的產量將會很低。

Additionally, we're working extremely hard to manage through the global semiconductor shortage as well as port capacity, which may have a temporary impact.

此外，我們正在努力應對全球半導體短缺和港口容量問題，這可能會產生暫時的影響。

We will continue to invest heavily in supercharging and service capacity while driving reductions on cost, including OpEx as a percentage of revenue.

我們將繼續大力投資於增壓和服務能力，同時推動降低成本，包括運營支出佔收入的百分比。

Global demand continues to outpace production, and we're moving as quickly as we can with a focus on the long term.

全球需求繼續超過產量，我們正在盡快採取行動，著眼於長期。

I look forward to providing updates on progress throughout the year.

我期待著提供有關全年進展的最新信息。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And now we can jump straight into questions from Say Technologies.

現在我們可以直接進入 Say Technologies 提出的問題。

The first question from institutional investors is, what is currently holding Tesla back from being the market share leader in solar?

機構投資者的第一個問題是，目前是什麼阻礙了特斯拉成為太陽能市場份額的領導者？

Yes.

是的。

So we're actually seeing tremendous growth in solar quarter-over-quarter last year.

因此，我們實際上看到了去年太陽能季度環比的巨大增長。

And we had our best quarter since, I think, 2018 in Q4.

我認為，我們在第四季度經歷了自 2018 年以來最好的一個季度。

So we do expect to become the market share leader in solar and then go far beyond it.

因此，我們確實希望成為太陽能市場份額的領導者，然後遠遠超越它。

It's -- unfortunately, there were a few years there where we had to devote the whole company to Model 3 production and building.

不幸的是，有幾年我們不得不將整個公司都投入到 Model 3 的生產和製造中。

And so we actually basically take the whole company, including a lot of people that were on solar, and have them work on cars.

所以我們實際上基本上把整個公司，包括很多從事太陽能的人，讓他們在汽車上工作。

But now we got a little more bandwidth, we're putting a lot of attention on solar, and it is growing rapidly.

但是現在我們有了更多的帶寬，我們非常關注太陽能，而且它正在迅速增長。

So I think it will not be long before Tesla is, by far, the market leader in solar.

因此，我認為用不了多久，特斯拉就會成為迄今為止太陽能市場的領導者。

Another really important part of the solar strategy is achieving an industry-leading cost structure, which then allows us to have industry-leading pricing.

太陽能戰略的另一個非常重要的部分是實現行業領先的成本結構，這使我們能夠擁有行業領先的定價。

And so that's something that we've accomplished over the last year in terms of getting the cost structure in the place that it needs to be.

這就是我們在過去一年中在將成本結構置於所需位置方面所取得的成就。

And as Elon mentioned, this is a really important part with industry-leading pricing to become the leader in the space.

正如 Elon 所提到的，這是一個非常重要的部分，以行業領先的價格成為該領域的領導者。

Yes.

是的。

And actually, an important part is achieving better integration between the Tesla Powerwall and the Tesla retrofit solar and Tesla roof.

實際上，一個重要的部分是實現 Tesla Powerwall 與 Tesla 改造太陽能和 Tesla 屋頂之間的更好集成。

And we're confident we'll have excellent integration -- excellent integration with the Powerwall and Tesla Solar, whether it's retrofit or the Tesla Solarglass Roof before the end of the year.

而且我們有信心我們將在年底之前實現出色的集成——無論是改造還是特斯拉太陽能玻璃屋頂，都將與 Powerwall 和 Tesla Solar 完美集成。

So it's really -- I think we've got a good strategy.

所以真的 - 我認為我們有一個很好的策略。

As Zach mentioned, we're focused on reducing the amount of time and the complexity of the install, and we're making great progress in that regard.

正如 Zach 提到的，我們專注於減少安裝的時間和復雜性，我們在這方面取得了很大進展。

And I think we'll have something that's really dialed in this year.

而且我認為我們今年會有一些真正撥通的東西。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The second question is, could current owners get ability to transfer their FSD to their next vehicle?

第二個問題是，目前的車主能否將他們的 FSD 轉移到他們的下一輛車上？

This would be huge for loyalty and overall increase sales of vehicles while offering more FSD sales on the used vehicles.

這對於忠誠度和整體增加車輛銷售量來說將是巨大的，同時為二手車提供更多的 FSD 銷售。

Unfortunately, we're not considering that at this time.

不幸的是，我們目前沒有考慮這一點。

We do actually offer an increased -- higher price than -- for a car with FSD than the one without FSD.

實際上，我們確實為配備 FSD 的汽車提供了比沒有 FSD 的汽車更高的價格。

And I do think that the market currently undervalues -- the consumer market and arguably the stock market probably undervalue just how good FSD is going to be.

而且我確實認為市場目前低估了消費市場和可以說是股票市場可能低估了 FSD 將有多好。

But we're not currently planning on offering -- on allowing it to get transferred.

但我們目前不打算提供 - 允許它被轉移。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

We will be offering subscription pretty soon, in the next month or 2. So that should address a lot of people's concerns about being able to get it.

我們將很快在下個月或 2 個月內提供訂閱服務。所以這應該可以解決很多人對能夠獲得它的擔憂。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And the third question is, can you give us a progress update on dry coating of the battery electrode?

第三個問題是，您能否介紹一下電池電極干法塗層的進展情況？

At the Battery Day, Elon said, "I would not say this is completely in the bag," as -- yet as the yields were low.

在電池日，埃隆說，“我不會說這完全在袋子裡”，因為——但產量很低。

Drew?

德魯？

Yes.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

It's true, the in-house cell manufacturing system we revealed at Battery Day contains new processes and equipment.

確實，我們在電池日展示的內部電池製造系統包含新的工藝和設備。

So we did expect some unknown unknowns and technical challenges to arise through the production ramp.

因此，我們確實預計生產坡道會出現一些未知的未知數和技術挑戰。

The Kato team, however, has been able to solve each manufacturing problem presented to date and continues to improve yield and rate week-over-week and month-over-month as we move up the production S-curve.

然而，Kato 團隊已經能夠解決迄今為止提出的每個製造問題，並且隨著我們在生產 S 曲線上移動，每周和每月繼續提高產量和速率。

At the same time, the cell engineering team's refined designs and deepened understanding has reinforced our confidence in the drive process and 4680 design, meeting our performance and cost targets.

同時，電池工程團隊精益求精的設計，加深了我們對驅動工藝和4680設計的信心，達到了我們的性能和成本目標。

And from a capacity perspective, we have 10 gigawatt hours worth of equipment landed at Kato.

從容量的角度來看，我們有 10 吉瓦時的設備降落在加藤。

The production staff is nearly all hired.

製作人員幾乎全部被雇用。

Our material supply chain is established and the team is on track for full production ramp this year.

我們的材料供應鏈已經建立，團隊今年有望全面投產。

Meanwhile, we've developed enough engineering confidence with our 4680 design and the production process and equipment to kick off manufacturing equipment and facility construction to support our 100 gigawatt hour 2022 goal.

同時，我們已經通過我們的 4680 設計以及生產工藝和設備建立了足夠的工程信心，以啟動製造設備和設施建設，以支持我們的 2022 年 100 吉瓦時目標。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

The next question is, why are you confident in Tesla will achieve Level 5 autonomy in 2021?

下一個問題是，你為什麼對特斯拉在 2021 年實現 5 級自動駕駛充滿信心？

And why is Dojo not necessary to get there?

為什麼 Dojo 不需要到達那裡？

I guess I'm confident based on my understanding of the technical road map and the progress that we're making between each beta iteration.

我想基於我對技術路線圖的理解以及我們在每次 beta 迭代之間取得的進展，我很有信心。

Yes.

是的。

As I'm saying, it's not remarkable at all for the car to completely drive you from one location to another through a series of complex intersections.

正如我所說的，汽車將你從一個地方完全帶到另一個地方，穿過一系列複雜的十字路口，這並不了不起。

It's now about just improving the corner case reliability and getting it to 99.9999% reliable with respect to an accident.

現在只需要提高極端情況的可靠性，並使其在發生事故時的可靠性達到 99.9999%。

Basically, we need to get it to better than human by a factor of at least 100% or 200%.

基本上，我們需要讓它比人類好至少 100% 或 200%。

And this is happening rapidly because we've got so much training data with all cars in the field.

這正在迅速發生，因為我們已經獲得了該領域所有汽車的大量訓練數據。

And the software is improving dramatically.

該軟件正在顯著改進。

The -- we also write the software for labeling.

- 我們還編寫了標籤軟件。

And I'll say it's quite challenging.

我會說這很有挑戰性。

We're moving everything towards video labeling.

我們正在將一切都轉向視頻標籤。

So it's all video labeling, all video inference.

所以這都是視頻標籤，所有視頻推理。

And so there are still a few of the neural nets that need to be upgraded to video training and video inference.

因此仍有一些神經網絡需要升級到視頻訓練和視頻推理。

And really, as we transition each net to video, the performances become exceptional.

實際上，當我們將每個網絡轉換為視頻時，性能變得異常出色。

So this is like a hot thing.

所以這就像一件熱門的事情。

The video -- the labeling software that we work for, video labeling, making that better has a huge effect on the efficiency of labeling.

視頻——我們為之工作的標籤軟件，視頻標籤，使其更好地對標籤效率產生巨大影響。

And then, of course, the holy grail is auto labeling.

然後，當然，聖杯是自動標籤。

So we're putting a lot of work into having the labeling tool be more efficient when used by a person as well as enabling auto labeling where we can.

因此，我們投入了大量工作來讓標籤工具在人們使用時更加高效，並在我們可能的地方啟用自動標籤。

Dojo is a sort of training supercomputer.

Dojo 是一種訓練超級計算機。

We believe it will be -- we think it may be the best neural net training computer in the world by possibly an order of magnitude.

我們相信它會——我們認為它可能是世界上最好的神經網絡訓練計算機，可能是一個數量級。

So it is a whole thing in and of itself.

所以它本身就是一個整體。

And this is something we can offer potentially as a service.

這是我們可以作為服務提供的東西。

So some of the others need neural net training.

所以其他一些需要神經網絡訓練。

We're not trying to keep it to ourselves.

我們不是想把它留給自己。

So I think there could be a whole line of business in and of itself, and then, of course, for training vast amounts video data and getting the reliability from, say, 100% to 200% better than average human to 2,000% better than average human.

所以我認為它本身可能有一個完整的業務線，然後，當然，用於訓練大量視頻數據並獲得比普通人高 100% 到 200% 到比普通人高 2,000% 的可靠性普通人。

Dojo will be very helpful in that regard.

Dojo 在這方面會很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The next question is, what is Tesla's current gigawatt hour run rate of the 4680 cell production?

下一個問題是，特斯拉目前 4680 電池生產的千兆瓦時運行率是多少？

How do you see this run rate evolving by mid-2021 or end of 2021?

您如何看待到 2021 年年中或 2021 年底的運行率？

I think we kind of talked about that, Drew.

德魯，我想我們已經談過了。

I mean essentially, what we're saying is that the number to think about or focus on is like we've got a 100 gigawatt hour total Tesla cells produced in 2022.

我的意思是，我們所說的是，要考慮或關注的數字就像我們在 2022 年生產了 100 吉瓦時的特斯拉電池。

It's not that important to look at the run up to that because these things tend to improve exponentially.

看看這方面的進展並不重要，因為這些事情往往會呈指數級增長。

But we are installing capacity for -- in 2022 for 200 gigawatt hours a year, and we think probably we should be able to achieve 30% of targeted design capacity in 2022.

但我們正在為 2022 年每年安裝 200 吉瓦時的裝機容量，我們認為我們應該能夠在 2022 年實現 30% 的目標設計容量。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Agreed, Elon.

同意，埃隆。

And as you've said before, with the S-curve of production, you can be off a little bit on the initial part of the S-curve, and that makes a difference in absolute capacity by quite a bit 1 month to the next.

正如你之前所說，隨著生產的 S 曲線，你可以在 S 曲線的初始部分偏離一點點，這會在絕對產能上產生相當大的差異 1 個月到下一個.

So yes, I mean we are progressing up that S-curve as fast as we possibly can.

所以是的，我的意思是我們正在盡可能快地沿著 S 曲線前進。

Yes.

是的。

And we don't see any showstoppers.

而且我們沒有看到任何阻礙因素。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And one more question is from the retail investors.

還有一個問題來自散戶投資者。

What is Tesla doing to improve service experience?

特斯拉為提升服務體驗做了哪些工作？

Tesla had a reputation for outstanding customer service.

特斯拉以出色的客戶服務而聞名。

Now it's impossible to even call a service center, and appointments are scheduled weeks out.

現在連打電話給服務中心都不可能了，而且預約要在幾週後才能完成。

Jerome?

杰羅姆?

Yes.

是的。

Well, as far as best service, no service, so we spent a lot of efforts trying to improve the quality and the reliability of our cars.

好吧，就最好的服務而言，沒有服務，所以我們花了很多努力來提高我們汽車的質量和可靠性。

In the last 2 years, the frequency of service visits are reduced by 1/3.

在過去的 2 年中，服務訪問頻率減少了 1/3。

So people have to -- customers have to come less frequently in service, which is really the goal, no service.

所以人們必須——客戶必須減少服務的頻率，這才是真正的目標，沒有服務。

And if service has to take place, we are trying to make it as painless as possible.

如果必須進行服務，我們正努力使其盡可能輕鬆。

One big effort there is to increase mobile service, which is now more than 40% of all visits in North America.

一項重大努力是增加移動服務，現在移動服務佔北美所有訪問量的 40% 以上。

We're trying to push that to 50% this year.

今年我們正努力將這一比例提高到 50%。

And 50% of service visits last less than 2 hours.

50% 的服務訪問持續時間不到 2 小時。

So we're trying to service the cars very quickly so people can get their vehicles back on the road.

因此，我們正在努力盡快為汽車提供服務，以便人們可以讓他們的汽車重新上路。

And in terms of service appointment, it continues to improve.

並且在服務預約方面，不斷提升。

We have about -- we have actually 140 service centers right now in North America.

我們現在在北美大約有 140 個服務中心。

For 100 out of those 140, you can get appointments in less than 10 days.

對於這 140 人中的 100 人，您可以在不到 10 天的時間內獲得預約。

And we're going to make sure all service centers are -- have a short wait time.

我們將確保所有服務中心都——有很短的等待時間。

We're accelerating, as Zach mentioned earlier, the pace of opening.

正如 Zach 之前提到的，我們正在加快開放的步伐。

In North America, we opened 11 centers in December, and we have plans to open 46 in the first half of this year.

在北美，我們在 12 月開設了 11 個中心，今年上半年我們計劃開設 46 個。

So that's what we're doing to improve service.

這就是我們為改善服務所做的工作。

In terms of phones, our emphasis is on the app.

在手機方面，我們的重點是應用程序。

Really, we want all communications to go through the app, the Tesla app, and we're trying to move away from the phone.

真的，我們希望所有通信都通過應用程序，特斯拉應用程序，我們正試圖遠離手機。

The app is much better than the phone.

該應用程序比手機好得多。

It can start directly -- alerts directly from the car and schedule a service appointment.

它可以直接啟動——直接從汽車發出警報並安排服務預約。

And there is a written record of all communication between the customer and the service team.

並且有客戶和服務團隊之間所有溝通的書面記錄。

You can have pictures in there.

裡面可以放圖片。

You can take care of your payment without entering the credit card and doing all that stuff.

您可以在不輸入信用卡和做所有這些事情的情況下處理您的付款。

You get updates on the service.

您會收到有關服務的更新。

And there is even more features that are going to come in the coming months on the app.

未來幾個月，該應用程序還將推出更多功能。

And I think everybody will be happy, including the ability to spot where your service technician is and how far it is to coming from your car and what's going on there.

而且我認為每個人都會很高興，包括能夠發現您的維修技術人員在哪裡，距離您的汽車有多遠以及那裡發生了什麼。

So we are investing everything on the app, I think, just like most other companies as well, and that's the way of the future.

因此，我認為，就像大多數其他公司一樣，我們正在將一切都投資在應用程序上，這就是未來的方式。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And now let's go to institutional investor questions.

現在讓我們談談機構投資者的問題。

The question number one, what are the key milestones we need to achieve in order to evolve current FSD to a commercial Level 4, Level 5 ridesharing solution?

第一個問題，為了將當前的 FSD 發展為商業 4 級、5 級拼車解決方案，我們需要實現哪些關鍵里程碑？

Yes.

是的。

So it really goes back to what I was saying a moment ago, which is we need to transition over the neural nets in the car to video.

所以它真的回到了我剛才所說的，那就是我們需要將汽車中的神經網絡轉換為視頻。

And in order to do that, the whole stack has to be -- the whole stack has to be changed to video.

為了做到這一點，整個堆棧必須-- 整個堆棧必須更改為視頻。

That means gathering video clips than using -- and this is actually surround video.

這意味著收集視頻剪輯而不是使用——這實際上是環繞視頻。

So you've got 8 cameras operating simultaneously with synchronized frame rates.

因此，您有 8 台攝像機以同步的幀速率同時運行。

So you've got basically 8-frame surround video -- 8-camera surround video.

所以你基本上得到了 8 幀環繞視頻—— 8 攝像機環繞視頻。

And then you've got to label basically everything in that video snippet and then train against that and have those neural nets operate the car.

然後你必須基本上標記該視頻片段中的所有內容，然後針對它進行訓練並讓這些神經網絡操作汽車。

So -- and this is coming from the past where we would label, the neural nets would be a single camera, single frame.

所以——這來自我們標記的過去，神經網絡將是一個單一的相機，單一的幀。

So no video and not combining the cameras.

所以沒有視頻，也沒有組合相機。

And then we went from single frame, single frame, one frame at a time, one camera at a time, neural nets to surround camera, neural nets would look at all -- all 8 cameras but only one frame at a time and now to where we include the time dimension.

然後我們從單幀、單幀、一次一幀、一次一個攝像頭、神經網絡到環繞攝像頭，神經網絡將查看所有 8 個攝像頭，但一次只有一幀，現在到我們包括時間維度。

And that's video.

那就是視頻。

So I really do see this as a question of getting work done.

所以我確實認為這是一個完成工作的問題。

We're getting it done.

我們正在完成它。

And you can see the results in the rapidly improving FSD betas that are leased.

您可以在租用的快速改進的 FSD 測試版中看到結果。

And we're also going to be expanding the FSD beta itself to include more and more people.

我們還將擴展 FSD 測試版本身，以包括越來越多的人。

So from my standpoint, it looks like a very clear and obvious path towards a vehicle that will drive 100% safer than a person.

因此，從我的角度來看，這看起來是一條非常清晰和明顯的道路，通向一輛比人駕駛 100% 安全的車輛。

Yes.

是的。

I really don't see any obstacles here.

我真的看不到這裡有任何障礙。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And the second question from institutionals is, does Tesla plan or expect to license any of its software applications, FSD and Autobidder in particular, to third-party OEMs?

來自機構的第二個問題是，特斯拉是否計劃或期望將其任何軟件應用程序（尤其是 FSD 和 Autobidder）授權給第三方 OEM？

I think we're very open to licensing our software to third parties.

我認為我們非常願意將我們的軟件授權給第三方。

And we've had some preliminary discussions about licensing Autopilot to other OEMs.

我們已經就向其他 OEM 授權 Autopilot 進行了一些初步討論。

So this is something we're more than happy to do.

所以這是我們非常樂意做的事情。

And -- but I think, obviously, like we need to probably do a little bit more work to prove that Tesla Autopilot is capable of full self-driving, which, I think, will become obvious later this year.

而且——但我認為，顯然，我們可能需要做更多的工作來證明特斯拉 Autopilot 能夠完全自動駕駛，我認為這將在今年晚些時候變得顯而易見。

And then we're more than happy to license that to other car companies.

然後我們非常樂意將其授權給其他汽車公司。

We're definitely not trying to keep it to be a Tesla exclusive situation.

我們絕對不會試圖讓它成為特斯拉獨有的情況。

And I think probably same goes for Autobidder.

我認為 Autobidder 可能也是如此。

We haven't thought as much about Autobidder, but the Tesla philosophy is definitely not to create walled gardens.

我們沒有過多考慮 Autobidder，但特斯拉的理念絕對不是創造圍牆花園。

We're going to allow other companies to use our Supercharger networks, and yes, using our autonomy software and Autobidder and perhaps other things, we'd be fine to.

我們將允許其他公司使用我們的 Supercharger 網絡，是的，使用我們的自治軟件和 Autobidder，也許還有其他東西，我們會很好。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The next question is, key differences in product, customer preferences, FSD strategy between China and the rest of the world.

下一個問題是，中國與世界其他地區在產品、客戶偏好、FSD 戰略方面的主要差異。

Do we need to do things differently to win the Chinese EV market?

我們是否需要採取不同的方式來贏得中國電動汽車市場？

Well, we currently are winning that -- we are currently the leader in the Chinese EV market.

好吧，我們目前正在贏得這一點——我們目前是中國電動汽車市場的領導者。

So I think we're must be doing something right if we're the best-selling electric car in China.

所以我認為，如果我們是中國最暢銷的電動汽車，我們一定是在做正確的事情。

That said, very few of our customers in China, I think maybe as low as 1% or 2%, actually have selected the FSD option.

也就是說，我們在中國的客戶中，實際上只有 1% 或 2% 的客戶實際上選擇了 FSD 選項。

This is much lower than rest of world.

這遠低於世界其他地區。

So we definitely need to make it work well in China.

所以我們肯定需要讓它在中國運作良好。

I think as soon as it works well in China, then we will have the take rate for FSD.

我認為只要它在中國運作良好，我們就會有 FSD 的採用率。

I find that the customers in China -- Tesla owners in China are among the most discerning in the world.

我發現中國的客戶——中國的特斯拉車主是世界上最挑剔的人之一。

Their attention to detail is incredible.

他們對細節的關注令人難以置信。

So they -- I'm confident that they will buy FSD as soon as it is working well in China.

所以他們——我相信他們會在 FSD 在中國運作良好時盡快購買。

And hopefully, that is later this year.

希望那是今年晚些時候。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And the next question is, is it fair to argue that the best way to think about company's long-term earnings power is tied to profit per unit of battery capacity?

下一個問題是，認為考慮公司長期盈利能力的最佳方式與每單位電池容量的利潤掛鉤是否公平？

3 terawatt hours target from Battery Day implies half of long-term battery capacity goes to storage, depending on what you assume for pack size on Elon's 20 million vehicle unit goal?

電池日的 3 太瓦時目標意味著一半的長期電池容量用於存儲，這取決於您對 Elon 2000 萬輛汽車單位目標的電池組大小的假設？

Yes, it is.

是的。

So the fundamental limit on electric vehicles right now, in general, is total availability of cells, what's the output of factory cells in gigawatt hours.

因此，一般而言，目前電動汽車的基本限制是電池的總可用性，即工廠電池的輸出量（以千兆瓦時為單位）。

And you can't grow faster than that.

你不能比這更快地增長。

Now at Tesla, we've improved the efficiency of our cars dramatically such that you can actually get a pretty good range even with the Standard Range battery pack.

現在在特斯拉，我們已經顯著提高了汽車的效率，即使使用標準續航里程電池組，您實際上也可以獲得相當不錯的續航里程。

It's in the high -- it's approaching -- for Model 3, it's approaching the sort of high 200s.

它處於高位——它正在接近——對於 Model 3，它正在接近 200 年代的高點。

And with some slight continued improvements, we'll start to get to a 300-mile range even with the Standard pack, an order of 500 kilometers.

隨著一些輕微的持續改進，我們將開始達到 300 英里的範圍，即使使用標準包，訂購 500 公里。

So there's efficiency improvements in the car.

因此，汽車的效率有所提高。

But fundamentally, the growth is dependent on cell production.

但從根本上說，增長取決於細胞生產。

And there's obviously a lot of other companies that want to -- that have a need for cells.

顯然還有很多其他公司想要——他們需要細胞。

So -- but the reason Tesla is doing its own cell production is in order to accelerate the growth.

所以——但特斯拉自己生產電池的原因是為了加速增長。

It is not to make less use of our cell suppliers.

不是少用我們的電池供應商。

In fact, I want to be really clear, Tesla wants to increase purchases from cell suppliers.

事實上，我想非常清楚，特斯拉想增加對電池供應商的採購。

And we've been very clear with our cell suppliers, whether it be CATL or Panasonic or LG, that we will take as many batteries as they can produce.

我們已經與我們的電池供應商非常清楚，無論是寧德時代、松下還是 LG，我們將盡可能多地使用他們可以生產的電池。

So -- and we urge them to increase their production, and we will buy as much as they can send to us.

所以 - 我們敦促他們增加產量，我們將盡可能多地購買他們可以發送給我們的產品。

Obviously, there are some price limits on that because the car still needs to be affordable.

顯然，這有一些價格限制，因為汽車仍然需要負擔得起。

But I'm just trying to be as clear as possible that our goal with making our own cells is not to disintermediate our suppliers.

但我只是想盡可能清楚地表明，我們製造自己的細胞的目標不是讓我們的供應商脫媒。

It is to supplement our suppliers.

這是為了補充我們的供應商。

And we want our suppliers of cells to increase their production and in addition, have our production that is simply taking up the amount beyond which they are either unable or unwilling to increase their production.

我們希望我們的電池供應商增加他們的產量，此外，我們的產量只是佔用了他們無法或不願意增加產量的數量。

So it's an acceleration over and above the most that our suppliers say they can produce for us.

因此，這是我們的供應商表示他們可以為我們生產的最大速度之外的加速。

And so we -- since the cell output drives vehicle output, the -- and then -- I mean probably the broad brushstroke value of Tesla is just what's the cell output that implies vehicle output and then at least double that for autonomy revenue, [probably a whole new] level.

所以我們——因為電池輸出驅動汽車輸出，然後——我的意思是，特斯拉的粗略價值可能就是電池輸出意味著車輛輸出，然後至少是自動駕駛收入的兩倍，[可能是一個全新的] 水平。

And that's how you figure out the value of the company, I think, long term.

這就是你如何計算公司的價值，我認為，長期。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

The next question is about 4680 cells, which we already covered in the retail section of this call.

下一個問題是關於 4680 個電池，我們已經在本次電話會議的零售部分討論過。

So let's go straight to the last question from institutional investors, which is, where are you in Cybertruck development?

那麼讓我們直接回答機構投資者的最後一個問題，即，您在 Cybertruck 開發中處於什麼位置？

What are your expectations for Cybertruck deliveries in 2021?

您對 2021 年 Cybertruck 的交付有什麼期望？

All right.

好的。

So we finished almost all of the Cybertruck engineering.

所以我們完成了幾乎所有的 Cybertruck 工程。

So we're no longer iterating at the design center level or design level.

因此，我們不再在設計中心級別或設計級別進行迭代。

We've got the designs fixed.

我們已經修復了設計。

We're getting to -- we'll soon order the equipment necessary to make the Cybertruck work.

我們開始了——我們很快就會訂購使 Cybertruck 工作所需的設備。

We're obviously going to be using even bigger casting machines for the rear body of the Cybertruck because you've got -- obviously, it's a bigger vehicle and you've got a long truck bed that's going to support a lot of load.

顯然，我們將為 Cybertruck 的後車身使用更大的鑄造機，因為你有 - 顯然，它是一輛更大的車輛，你有一個長的卡車車廂，可以支撐很多負載。

So we'll be using an 8,000-ton casting press for the rear body casting as opposed to 6,000 tons for Model Y. So 6,000 tons was the biggest casting machine in the world.

因此，我們將使用 8,000 噸的鑄造壓力機來鑄造車身後部，而 Model Y 則使用 6,000 噸。所以 6,000 噸是世界上最大的鑄造機。

8,000 tons is obviously quite a bit bigger than that.

8000噸顯然比這大很多。

And I think it's going to be an incredible vehicle.

我認為這將是一輛令人難以置信的車輛。

If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries towards the end of this year, but I expect volume production to be in 2022.

如果幸運的話，我們將能夠在今年年底前進行一些交付，但我預計將在 2022 年實現量產。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And now we can start with questions in the queue.

現在我們可以從隊列中的問題開始。

Our first question will come from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

我們的第一個問題將來自 Colin Rusch 和 Oppenheimer。

Can you talk a little bit about the regulatory environment for FSD and how you're seeing that play out?

您能否談談 FSD 的監管環境以及您如何看待這種情況？

Obviously, it's a bit of a moving target right now, and you guys are leading the way here, but we'd love to understand how those conversations are going and how you see that impacting the rollout of FSD throughout the balance of this year and into next year.

顯然，現在這是一個移動的目標，你們在這方面處於領先地位，但我們很想了解這些對話是如何進行的，以及你們如何看待這會影響今年餘下時間裡 FSD 的推出和進入明年。

Okay.

好的。

Zach, do you want to -- Zach and Jerome?

扎克，你想——扎克和杰羅姆嗎？

The -- what we're seeing right now in the U.S., for example, is a pretty dynamic space, but it's overall not particularly limiting on a rule basis.

例如，我們現在在美國看到的是一個非常動態的空間，但總體而言，它在規則基礎上並沒有特別的限制。

But what we're going to expect is to have to work with regulators to demonstrate really, really high reliability, as Elon said before.

但正如 Elon 之前所說，我們所期望的是必須與監管機構合作，以展示真正非常高的可靠性。

The rest of the world is fairly dynamic.

世界其他地區相當活躍。

In Europe, we see a general slowdown, generally not reaching past Level 3 right now with some impetus to start working on new working groups to reach past that.

在歐洲，我們看到普遍放緩，目前一般沒有達到 3 級以上，但有一些動力開始建立新的工作組以達到這一目標。

And China showed an interest in working on Level 4 or even Level 5 later this year.

中國對今年晚些時候的 4 級甚至 5 級工作表現出興趣。

So we expect a pretty dynamic 2021 in the regulatory space.

因此，我們預計 2021 年監管領域將充滿活力。

We have leadership in the U.S. looking for manufacturers to demonstrate really good launches and really high reliability before releasing to wider and wider groups.

我們在美國擁有領導地位，正在尋找製造商來展示真正出色的發布和真正的高可靠性，然後再將其發布給越來越廣泛的群體。

And then just a quick follow-up around inflation on some of the materials markets.

然後只是對一些材料市場的通貨膨脹進行快速跟進。

Obviously, there's a lot going on as low interest rates flow through the basic material space.

顯然，隨著低利率流經基本物質空間，發生了很多事情。

Can you talk a little bit about the supply chain and how you're managing some of your exposure around some of your raw material costs?

您能否談談供應鏈以及您如何管理圍繞您的一些原材料成本的一些風險？

This is Jerome.

這是杰羅姆。

Yes.

是的。

For supply chain, the first priority now is to deal with the disruptions from COVID and shipping, in particular, boats between Asia and North America.

對於供應鏈來說，現在的首要任務是應對新冠肺炎和航運，特別是亞洲和北美之間的船隻的中斷。

But we're also looking forward to pricing, and we're watching this very closely for all the components.

但我們也期待定價，我們正在密切關注所有組件的價格。

We are entering a series of long-term agreements with preferred suppliers to ensure that not only we're going to have enough quantity to support the growth, 50% CAGR as Zach mentioned earlier, but also good pricing with appropriate sharing of the risk.

我們正在與首選供應商簽訂一系列長期協議，以確保我們不僅有足夠的數量來支持增長，如 Zach 前面提到的 50% 的複合年增長率，而且還有良好的定價和適當的風險分擔。

Our next question will come from Dan Levy with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Levy。

Two questions, one on '21 and just one on capital.

兩個問題，一個是關於 21 年的，一個是關於資本的。

First, on '21, any expectations for what we should see on regulatory credit sales?

首先，在 21 年，我們對監管信貸銷售有何期望？

And then the second question is on capital.

然後第二個問題是關於資本的。

Obviously, you raised a lot of capital in 2020.

顯然，你在 2020 年籌集了很多資金。

What should we think about the use of those funds beyond just covering some of the maturities?

除了涵蓋一些到期日之外，我們應該如何看待這些資金的使用？

And can you just give us a sense of what the elevated liquidity does and doesn't buy?

您能否讓我們了解一下高流動性會買什麼，不買什麼？

Meaning to what extent does elevated capital enable you to accelerate plans on building capacity or expanding vertical integration, accelerating timing on full self-drive features?

這意味著增加的資本在多大程度上使您能夠加快建設能力或擴大垂直整合的計劃，加快完全自動駕駛功能的時間？

So those are the questions.

所以這些是問題。

Sure.

當然。

On the regulatory credit sales side, this is always an area that's extremely difficult for us to forecast.

在監管信貸銷售方面，這始終是我們極難預測的領域。

2020 regulatory credit sales ended up being higher than our expectations.

2020 年監管信貸銷售最終高於我們的預期。

And it's difficult to give guidance on that.

很難就此提供指導。

I mean what I said before is that in the long term, regulatory credit sales will not be a material part of the business, and we don't plan the business around that.

我的意思是我之前說過的是，從長遠來看，監管信貸銷售不會成為業務的重要組成部分，我們不會圍繞這一點規劃業務。

It's possible that for a handful of additional quarters, it remains strong.

有可能在接下來的幾個季度中，它仍然很強勁。

It's also possible that it's not.

也有可能不是。

Most of our regulatory credit revenue from Q4 was not lined up prior to the beginning of the quarter.

我們從第四季度開始的大部分監管信貸收入在本季度初之前都沒有排隊。

And these were discrete deals that were struck over the course of the quarter.

這些是在本季度完成的離散交易。

So I wish I could give you more on this, Dan, but it's a space that's extraordinarily difficult for us to forecast.

所以我希望我能給你更多關於這方面的信息，丹，但這是一個我們非常難以預測的領域。

On the second side, with respect to capital, a couple of things that we're thinking through there.

另一方面，關於資本，我們正在考慮一些事情。

So as I mentioned in my opening remarks, debt reduction is an important thing that we're focused on now.

因此，正如我在開場白中提到的，減少債務是我們現在關注的一件重要事情。

Early conversions, these are things we don't have a choice on.

早期轉換，這些是我們無法選擇的。

We did around $2 billion of that in Q4.

我們在第四季度做了大約 20 億美元。

We currently have $1.4 billion that we expect to go out in Q1 as a result of early conversions or conversions on convertible debt.

由於早期轉換或可轉換債務轉換，我們目前有 14 億美元預計將在第一季度流出。

That number may increase.

這個數字可能會增加。

And so debt reduction is important.

所以減少債務很重要。

That's helpful on interest expense as well.

這對利息支出也有幫助。

We are also using the money with respect to our investments in future capacity.

我們還將這筆錢用於我們對未來產能的投資。

And so what we're able to do now that we haven't had the opportunity to do in the past is, as we're building capacity, particularly in Austin and Berlin, we can build that capacity with the expectation of what the end state of capacity will be, pulling forward some of those investments rather than incrementally adding capacity as we go along.

所以我們現在能夠做的是，我們過去沒有機會做的是，隨著我們正在建設能力，特別是在奧斯汀和柏林，我們可以在期望結束的情況下建立這種能力產能狀態將是，推進其中一些投資，而不是隨著我們的進展逐步增加產能。

And so this is an important part in terms of capital efficiency that we haven't had the luxury to do in the past, and it's great to be able to have the liquidity to focus on that.

因此，就資本效率而言，這是我們過去沒有奢侈過的重要部分，能夠擁有流動性來專注於這一點真是太好了。

And then more broadly, as Jerome was touching on, service expansion is really important to the future strategy of the company.

然後更廣泛地說，正如杰羅姆所說，服務擴展對公司的未來戰略非常重要。

So as you saw in our Q4 numbers, the expansion of service centers and mobile service from Q3 to Q4 increased quite a bit and was also quite a bit higher than the first part of the year.

因此，正如您在我們的第四季度數據中看到的那樣，服務中心和移動服務的擴張從第三季度到第四季度增長了很多，也比今年上半年高很多。

And so we're able now to make investments there and also in the Supercharging network to get ahead of future demand, which will cost us more in the near term but is what the right long-term thing is for our customers and the company.

因此，我們現在能夠在那里和超級充電網絡進行投資，以領先於未來的需求，這將在短期內讓我們付出更多，但對於我們的客戶和公司來說，這是正確的長期事情。

Our next question will come from Alex Potter with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Alex Potter 和 Piper Sandler。

Great.

偉大的。

Was wondering, you mentioned how you'd like to increase your purchases of cells from suppliers.

想知道，您提到您希望如何增加從供應商處購買的電池。

Does this require them to also have the capability to build structural 4680 cells of the sort that you're putting in this -- these newer iterations of vehicles?

這是否要求他們也有能力構建您正在放入的那種結構 4680 單元 - 這些更新的車輛迭代？

No, it does not.

不，不是的。

Although we are talking with them about making the 4680 form factor, but they -- it is not required.

雖然我們正在與他們討論製作 4680 外形尺寸，但他們 - 這不是必需的。

For example, the new S currently uses the 18650 form factor.

例如，新 S 目前使用 18650 外形尺寸。

So they're just a more advanced cell, and we think we'll continue to use that form factor for at least a few years.

所以它們只是一個更先進的單元，我們認為我們將繼續使用這種外形至少幾年。

But we will, over time, be retiring the form factors and try to move to a consistent form factor.

但隨著時間的推移，我們將淘汰外形尺寸並嘗試轉向一致的外形尺寸。

So -- but it is not a requirement that we place on our suppliers because they would -- it would just result in fewer cells.

所以——但這不是我們對供應商提出的要求，因為他們會這樣做——這只會導致電池數量減少。

So it's better for us to deal with the complexity of different cell form factors than insist on a single form factor for our suppliers today.

因此，對於我們來說，處理不同單元形式因素的複雜性比今天堅持為我們的供應商提供單一形式因素要好。

Like I said, over time, it will make sense to have a consistent form factor.

就像我說的，隨著時間的推移，擁有一致的外形是有意義的。

Okay.

好的。

Makes sense.

說得通。

And then one additional maybe qualitative question on capacity expansion.

然後還有一個關於產能擴張的可能定性問題。

You've mentioned in the past, I mean, access to dollars is one thing, but access to human beings that are sufficiently qualified is another.

你過去提到過，我的意思是，獲得美元是一回事，但獲得足夠合格的人是另一回事。

Have you run up against any issues on that front that would potentially limit your growth in any way?

您是否在這方面遇到過任何可能以任何方式限制您的成長的問題？

That is one of the things that -- or limits the growth rate.

這是限制增長率的事情之一。

It doesn't limit the ultimate size.

它不限制最終尺寸。

It limits the growth rate, which is what's the rate at which we can onboard great people and get them trained in the right areas.

它限制了增長率，這就是我們可以讓優秀人才加入並讓他們在正確領域接受培訓的速度。

You usually can't like instantaneously -- if you've got a factory that has 20,000 employees, you can't just hire 20,000 people instantly.

你通常不能一蹴而就——如果你有一家擁有 20,000 名員工的工廠，你就不能立即僱傭 20,000 人。

They've got -- they were usually doing something else.

他們有——他們通常在做別的事情。

So they've got to transition from whatever they were doing or move from some other part of the country.

所以他們必須從他們正在做的任何事情中過渡，或者從這個國家的其他地方搬出去。

And so there's a certain amount of time required for that.

所以這需要一定的時間。

I mean that said, we do think that we can maintain a growth rate in excess of 50% per year for many years to come.

我的意思是說，我們確實認為我們可以在未來很多年保持每年超過 50% 的增長率。

And at least I'd like to -- yes, at least 50% per year for many years to come.

至少我想 - 是的，在未來的許多年裡每年至少 50%。

I think this year, we may track to a fair bit above 50%, but we don't want to commit to that.

我認為今年，我們可能會追踪到略高於 50%，但我們不想承諾。

But at least that's what it would appear, and the same again next year.

但至少這就是它會出現的樣子，明年也會如此。

It appears to be meaningfully above 50%.

它似乎有意義地高於 50%。

Our next question will come from Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自 RBC 資本市場的 Joseph Spak。

Elon, back in 2018, you tweeted about electric vans and how it could be interesting to work with Daimler on the Sprinter.

埃隆，早在 2018 年，您就在推特上發布了有關電動貨車以及與戴姆勒在 Sprinter 上合作的樂趣。

But we haven't really heard of anything since.

但從那以後，我們還沒有真正聽說過任何事情。

But in the meantime, we've seen a lot of activity in electric van and last-mile space from a number of established players or startups.

但與此同時，我們已經看到許多老牌企業或初創公司在電動貨車和最後一英里領域開展了大量活動。

So I know you said that you have a lot of projects on the table, but can you provide us an update of your thoughts on this market?

所以我知道你說你有很多項目在桌面上，但你能告訴我們你對這個市場的最新看法嗎？

And is it something you're interested in?

這是你感興趣的東西嗎？

I think Tesla is definitely going to make an electric van at some point.

我認為特斯拉肯定會在某個時候製造一輛電動貨車。

The thing to bear in mind is that there is fundamentally a constraint on battery cell output.

要記住的是，從根本上說，電池單元的輸出受到限制。

It's like -- if one is not involved in manufacturing, it's really hard to appreciate just how hard it is to scale production.

就像——如果一個人不參與製造，真的很難理解規模化生產有多麼困難。

It's the hardest thing in the world.

這是世界上最難的事情。

Prototypes are easy.

原型很容易。

Scaling production is very hard.

規模化生產非常困難。

So a big part of the reason -- the main reason we have not accelerated new products is -- like, for example, Tesla Semi, is that we simply don't have enough cells built.

所以很大一部分原因 - 我們沒有加速新產品的主要原因是 - 例如，特斯拉半導體，是我們根本沒有建造足夠的電池。

Like we -- this -- if we were to make the Semi like right now, which we could easily go into production with the Semi, but we would not have enough to cells for it right now.

就像我們——這個——如果我們現在就製造 Semi，我們可以很容易地用 Semi 投入生產，但我們現在沒有足夠的電池來生產它。

We will have cells -- enough cells for Semi when we were producing the 4680 in volume.

當我們批量生產 4680 時，我們將擁有足夠的單元用於 Semi。

But for example, Semi would use typically 5x the number of cells that a car would use, but it would not sell for 5x what a car would sell for.

但例如，Semi 通常使用的電池數量是汽車的 5 倍，但它的售價不會是汽車售價的 5 倍。

So it kind of doesn't make -- it would not make sense for us to do the Semi right now, but it will absolutely make sense for us to do it as soon as we can address the cell production constraint.

所以這有點行不通——我們現在做半成品是沒有意義的，但一旦我們能夠解決電池生產限制，我們就絕對有意義。

The same would go for a van.

麵包車也是如此。

Okay.

好的。

And then maybe if I could dig into your past on one more item.

然後也許如果我可以再挖掘一件你的過去。

About 2 years ago, at the Autonomy Day, you stated that you're working on the next-gen Tesla chip which was about 2 years away.

大約 2 年前，在自治日，你說你正在研究大約 2 年後的下一代特斯拉芯片。

So is there any update on that front?

那麼這方面有什麼更新嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean to be clear, we are still not -- the software still does not fully use the capabilities of the FSD version 1 computer.

我的意思是說清楚，我們仍然沒有——該軟件仍然沒有完全使用 FSD 版本 1 計算機的功能。

It is really just an incredibly powerful computer, and I'm personally certain that you can create Full Self-Driving with safety Level 5 in terms of a person just using the Full Self-Driving version 1 computer.

它實際上只是一台功能非常強大的計算機，我個人確信，就一個人僅使用完全自動駕駛版本 1 計算機而言，您可以創建安全級別 5 的完全自動駕駛。

The version 2, we expect to be about 3x as powerful.

第 2 版，我們預計其功能大約是 3 倍。

And this needs to be paired with higher-resolution cameras.

這需要與更高分辨率的相機配對。

And so it's quite a -- it requires a bunch of things to change simultaneously.

所以它相當——它需要同時改變一堆東西。

But we have not been rushing with version 2 of the chip.

但我們並沒有急於推出芯片的第 2 版。

It's coming along well and it's in good shape.

它進展順利，而且狀態良好。

But since we can achieve FSD, Full Self-Driving, with the current system, it would actually be a distraction right now if we were to introduce the Full Self-Driving -- the Tesla FSD chip 2 because it would set us back quite a bit on software.

但既然我們可以用當前的系統實現 FSD，Full Self-Driving，如果我們現在引入 Full Self-Driving——Tesla FSD 芯片 2，實際上會讓人分心，因為它會讓我們退縮很多。有點軟件。

And software is the critical path to Full Self-Driving.

軟件是實現全自動駕駛的關鍵途徑。

So I wouldn't worry too much about that.

所以我不會太擔心這個。

That's not a -- that's an improvement but not a game changer, the FSD 2. Getting the software to work and getting all the neural nets to be video, that's the game changer.

這不是——這是一種改進，但不是遊戲規則改變者，FSD 2。讓軟件工作並使所有神經網絡成為視頻，這就是遊戲規則改變者。

Our next question will come from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

My first question is about your in-house cell manufacturing efforts.

我的第一個問題是關於您的內部電池製造工作。

So in addition to building up capacity, some of the goals you highlighted was to cut the pricing or the cost by about 50%, boost the range by about 50% over a number of years.

因此，除了建立產能之外，您強調的一些目標是將定價或成本降低約 50%，並在幾年內將範圍擴大約 50%。

So wanted to know if your initial efforts are trending in that direction.

所以想知道你最初的努力是否朝著這個方向發展。

What is sort of like the time line to achieve these goals?

實現這些目標的時間線是什麼樣的？

And maybe related to this, how are you thinking about the time line for the cheaper Tesla, the entry model, eventually?

也許與此有關，您如何考慮最終推出更便宜的特斯拉入門車型的時間表？

I mean I think we feel very confident about achieving those targets, let's say, over a 3-year time frame.

我的意思是，我認為我們對實現這些目標非常有信心，比如說，在 3 年的時間框架內。

I don't know.

我不知道。

Drew?

德魯？

It's not like year 1. So 3, maybe 4 years, give ourselves a little room.

這不像第一年。所以 3 年，也許 4 年，給自己一點空間。

But for 3 or 4 years, I'd say, yes.

但是對於 3 或 4 年，我會說，是的。

We put together the trajectory in the Battery Day, and we're on that trajectory still.

我們將電池日的軌跡放在一起，我們仍然在這條軌跡上。

I think that's probably the best reference for the cost trajectory that we are on.

我認為這可能是我們目前成本軌蹟的最佳參考。

Yes.

是的。

We're aspiring to do better than what was presented at Battery Day, but we are confident of at least doing what we presented at Battery Day.

我們渴望做得比電池日展示的更好，但我們有信心至少做我們在電池日展示的東西。

Our next question will come from Ben Kallo with Baird.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Ben Kallo 和 Baird。

Congrats to the whole team.

祝賀整個團隊。

So we're trying to put together all the breadcrumbs.

所以我們試圖把所有的麵包屑放在一起。

If I remember correctly, going back 10 years, you talked about when you have a mass market car on the road, that you'd step down as CEO and be a Chief Architect.

如果我沒記錯的話，回到 10 年前，你談到當你有一輛大眾市場的汽車上路時，你會辭去 CEO 的職位並成為首席建築師。

And then we have -- you're going to Hawaii and see Larry and the X.com, and I'm trying to put it all together.

然後我們有 - 你要去夏威夷看看拉里和 X.com，我正試圖把它們放在一起。

So there's a lot of questions there.

所以那裡有很多問題。

Sure.

當然。

Well, I expect to be CEO of Tesla for several years.

好吧，我希望成為特斯拉的首席執行官幾年。

So I think there's still a lot that I'm super excited about doing.

所以我認為還有很多事情讓我非常興奮。

And I think it would be hard to leave a lot of these great projects halfway or partway done.

而且我認為很難讓很多這些偉大的項目中途或部分完成。

So I do expect to be running the company for several years into the future.

所以我確實希望在未來幾年內經營這家公司。

Now obviously, nobody is or should be CEO forever.

現在顯然，沒有人是或不應該永遠擔任 CEO。

So I don't expect to be -- like the sheer amount of work required to be CEO of Tesla is insane.

所以我不希望成為特斯拉首席執行官所需的大量工作是瘋狂的。

And I do -- I think I do probably more -- I definitely do more technical work than is typical for a CEO.

我確實——我想我可能做的更多——我做的技術工作肯定比 CEO 的典型工作要多。

So it would be nice to have a bit more free time on my hands as opposed to just working day and night, from when I wake up to when I go to sleep 7 days a week.

因此，從每週 7 天起床到睡覺時，與其日夜工作相比，有更多空閒時間在我手上會很好。

Pretty intense.

相當激烈。

So -- but I think the mission isn't over yet, and we still got a long way to go before we can really make a dent in the world on accelerating the advent of sustainable energy.

所以——但我認為任務還沒有結束，我們還有很長的路要走，才能真正在加速可持續能源的出現方面對世界產生影響。

I mean the goal of Tesla from beginning has been to accelerate sustainable energy.

我的意思是特斯拉從一開始的目標就是加速可持續能源。

And -- but if you say like what percentage of cars on the road are electric today, it's still very, very tiny, like an order of 1% or less than 1% of the total fleet worldwide.

而且——但如果你說今天路上有多少汽車是電動的，它仍然非常非常小，比如全球總車隊的 1% 或不到 1%。

So that's still a hell of a long way to go for "on the order of 1% of the fleet is electric." There's also a tremendous way to go on solar power, although it's exciting to see the advent of very cost-competitive wind and solar and geothermal.

因此，要實現“大約 1% 的車隊是電動的”，這仍然是一段很長的路要走。儘管看到極具成本競爭力的風能、太陽能和地熱能的出現令人興奮，但太陽能發電還有一條巨大的道路。

And of course, we need a large volume of stationary battery packs.

當然，我們需要大量的固定電池組。

I mean basically, the -- I mean the 3 legs of a sustainable energy future are sustainable energy generation led by solar, wind, geothermal and hydro and a few others.

我的意思是，我的意思是，可持續能源未來的三個方面是由太陽能、風能、地熱能和水力以及其他一些能源主導的可持續能源發電。

And I'm actually not against nuclear fusion.

我實際上並不反對核聚變。

I actually think nuclear fusion is -- with a well-designed reactor in a situation that is not subject to bad weather or seriously bad weather is actually -- it is a good thing to do.

實際上，我認為核聚變——在不受惡劣天氣或嚴重惡劣天氣影響的情況下設計精良的反應堆——這是一件好事。

So -- and then the second thing you need is you need stationary storage.

所以 - 然後你需要的第二件事是你需要固定存儲。

You need batteries because most renewable energy is intermittent.

您需要電池，因為大多數可再生能源都是間歇性的。

It doesn't -- the wind doesn't blow all the time.

它沒有——風不會一直在吹。

The sun doesn't shine all the time.

太陽不會一直照耀。

So you need a lot of batteries.

所以你需要很多電池。

And it needs to be very long-lasting and high cycle life.

它需要非常持久和高循環壽命。

And then you need electric transport.

然後你需要電動交通工具。

And if you have those 3 things, we've got a very bright future with respect to energy and the environment.

如果你有這三樣東西，我們在能源和環境方面就有一個非常光明的未來。

So still a long way to go on that.

所以在這方面還有很長的路要走。

And so I'm still very much fired up to work on that.

所以我仍然非常熱衷於做這件事。

Fantastic.

極好的。

And let's take the last question, please.

請讓我們回答最後一個問題。

Our last question will come from Gene Munster with Loop Ventures.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Loop Ventures 的 Gene Munster。

I was happy to see the update on the timing of Semi and had a couple of related questions.

我很高興看到 Semi 的時間更新，並有幾個相關的問題。

And first, since Semi trucks typically travel predictable highway miles, will Tesla Semi may be the first to achieve full autonomy?

首先，由於 Semi 卡車通常行駛可預測的高速公路里程，Tesla Semi 可能是第一個實現完全自主的人嗎？

I think that's quite likely, yes.

我認為這很有可能，是的。

Yes, I can't imagine -- I'm not sure who would be #2, but yes, it seems highly likely, yes.

是的，我無法想像——我不確定誰會是#2，但是是的，看起來很有可能，是的。

Okay.

好的。

And then the hardware...

然後硬件...

It's the exact same part numbers on the Semi based on the Tesla cars.

這與基於特斯拉汽車的 Semi 完全相同的零件編號。

There's no difference.

沒有區別。

Yes.

是的。

That's true, yes.

這是真的，是的。

As it is, we need to modify the parameters.

事實上，我們需要修改參數。

Software parameters change for Autopilot or Full Self-Driving because it needs to know if it's in a Model 3, Model Y, Model X or Model S. And so this is -- we just need to inform the vehicle -- inform the Full Self-Driving brain that it is now in a Semi truck.

自動駕駛或全自動駕駛的軟件參數會發生變化，因為它需要知道它是在 Model 3、Model Y、Model X 還是 Model S 中。所以這就是——我們只需要通知車輛——通知 Full Self -駕駛大腦，它現在在一輛半卡車上。

Would it need to be retrained then as part of that?

作為其中的一部分，它是否需要重新培訓？

No.

不。

I think there will be -- you have different control functions because there are turns that you could do in a regular car that you cannot do in a Semi.

我認為會有 - 你有不同的控制功能，因為你可以在普通汽車上做一些在半車上做不到的轉彎。

Like you don't want to try to parallel park this thing on the street in a city.

就像您不想嘗試將這個東西平行停放在城市的街道上一樣。

It needs to know its limitations being a giant truck.

它需要知道它作為巨型卡車的局限性。

Makes sense.

說得通。

My follow-up question was related to if you could just help us explain why battery electric will win versus hydrogen cell fuel tech.

我的後續問題與您是否可以幫助我們解釋為什麼電池電力將勝過氫電池燃料技術有關。

Yes.

是的。

I mean honestly, I've had this question a million times for -- just for regular vehicles, even back in the early Roadster days, even before we had the Roadster out.

老實說，這個問題我已經問過一百萬次了——僅針對普通車輛，甚至早在 Roadster 早期，甚至在我們推出 Roadster 之前。

People were saying that somehow hydrogen is going to be a better means of energy storage in a car than batteries.

人們說，不知何故，氫氣將成為比電池更好的汽車儲能方式。

And it was like this is just really not the case.

就像事實並非如此。

Hydrogen is a very -- it's #1 in the periodic table.

氫非常 - 它在元素週期表中排名第一。

It's got very low density.

它的密度非常低。

It's got low density as liquid, like styrofoam-level density as liquid.

它具有液體的低密度，就像聚苯乙烯泡沫塑料一樣的液體密度。

And then it's only liquid very close to absolute 0. So you have to have a -- it's really not realistic to keep it as liquid.

然後它只是非常接近絕對 0 的液體。所以你必須有一個 - 讓它保持液體狀態真的不現實。

You want to have it as a high-pressure gas that has even lower density.

您希望將其作為密度更低的高壓氣體。

So you need a gigantic fuel tank volumetrically, and it's got to be very high pressure.

所以你需要一個巨大的油箱容積，它必須是非常高的壓力。

It's a big pain in the ass basically.

這基本上是一個很大的痛苦。

If somebody is going to say use an ultimate chemical energy storage mechanism to hydrogen, I'd say just use propane or something like that or methane or -- those will be way better than hydrogen.

如果有人要說使用最終的化學能量儲存機制來儲存氫，我會說只使用丙烷或類似的東西或甲烷或 - 這些會比氫好得多。

And then having it be a fuel cell just adds even further complications to the situation.

然後讓它成為燃料電池只會使情況更加複雜。

It's just crazy basically.

基本上就是瘋了。

And we're extremely confident that we could do a long-range trucking with batteries.

而且我們非常有信心可以使用電池進行遠程卡車運輸。

The math works out.

數學計算出來了。

You don't -- if you could just like take, say, what hours per kilogram of currently available cells and say, okay, how much -- what weight would you need to go, let's say, 500 miles and to what degree does that affect your payload and it's like, okay, you could do this.

你不知道——如果你可以拿，比如說，每公斤當前可用的細胞需要多少小時，然後說，好吧，多少——你需要多少重量，比如說，500英里，到什麼程度這會影響你的有效載荷，就像，好吧，你可以這樣做。

If you do it right, you basically have no effect on your payload or almost nothing, and you can have a long-range truck.

如果你做得對，你基本上對你的有效載荷沒有影響或幾乎沒有影響，你可以擁有一輛遠程卡車。

I mean, Jerome, do you want to add to that?

我的意思是，杰羅姆，你想補充一下嗎？

I agree with you.

我同意你的看法。

And we see also an increase on the regionalization of trucks.

我們還看到卡車區域化的增加。

And I think it will be perfect.

我認為這將是完美的。

The Tesla Semi will be perfect for it, yes.

是的，Tesla Semi 非常適合它。

And yes, I'm very -- I'm looking forward to having some additional ones on the road very soon.

是的，我非常 - 我期待很快就會有更多的人出現在路上。

But basically, we do not see any issues with creating a compelling long-range truck with batteries.

但基本上，我們認為用電池製造引人注目的遠程卡車沒有任何問題。

The problem with cell supply -- cell supply is the only thing.

電池供應的問題——電池供應是唯一的問題。

Cell supply, yes.

電池供應，是的。

It's going to be awesome.

這會很棒。

Yes.

是的。

All right.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And unfortunately, that's all the time we have today.

不幸的是，這就是我們今天所擁有的所有時間。

So thanks for all of your great questions, and we will speak to you again in about 3 months.

因此，感謝您提出的所有重要問題，我們將在大約 3 個月後再次與您交談。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Bye.

再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。