特斯拉 (TSLA) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to Tesla's Q1 2020 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，感謝各位的支持，歡迎收聽特斯拉2020年第一季財務業績及問答網路直播。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員指示）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Mr. Martin Viecha, Senior Director for Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想將會議發言權交給投資者關係高級總監馬丁·維查先生。先生，請發言。

Thank you, Sherry, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Tesla's First Quarter 2020 Q&A Webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives. Our Q1 results were announced at about 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

謝謝雪莉，大家下午好！歡迎收聽特斯拉2020年第一季問答網路直播。今天，馬斯克、扎卡里·柯克霍恩和其他幾位高層也參與了直播。我們的第一季業績已於太平洋時間下午1點左右在更新資料中公佈，更新資料與本次網路直播的連結相同。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions)

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論是基於我們目前的預測和預期。由於許多風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件中提及的風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。 （操作員指示）

Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

在我們進入問答環節之前，伊隆先說幾句開場白。埃隆？

Thank you. So Q1 ended up being a strong quarter despite many challenges in the final few weeks. This is the first time we have achieved positive GAAP net income in a seasonally weak first quarter. Even with all the challenges, we achieved a 20% automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, while ramping 2 major products. What we've learned from this is that -- we've obviously learned a lot here. After all -- after the Model 3 ramp from 3 years ago, our new products get run faster and become profitable sooner. In Q1, we produced more Model Ys in the first quarter than Model 3s in Fremont in the first 2 quarters. Thus far, the Model Y ramp has been even faster than the Giga Shanghai ramp in Q1. Most surprisingly is, otherwise, we are ahead of the schedule that we were ahead of already. Most surprisingly -- Model Y was profitable already in its first quarter of production, something we haven't achieved with any product in the past.

謝謝。儘管最後幾週面臨諸多挑戰，但第一季最終表現強勁。這是我們在季節性疲軟的第一季首次實現正的GAAP淨利。即使面臨所有挑戰，我們仍然實現了20%的汽車毛利率（不包括監管抵免），同時實現了兩款主要產品的量產。我們從中學到的是——我們顯然學到了很多。畢竟──繼三年前Model 3量產之後，我們的新產品運作速度更快，獲利也更快。在第一季度，我們生產的Model Y比前兩個季度在弗里蒙特工廠生產的Model 3還要多。到目前為止，Model Y的量產速度甚至比上海超級工廠第一季的量產速度還要快。最令人驚訝的是，我們比之前已經提前完成的計劃提前了。最令人驚訝的是——Model Y在投產的第一個季度就實現了盈利，這是我們過去任何產品都未曾實現過的。

Regarding Autopilot, we released a new software update for traffic lights and stop signs to early access users in March and to all U.S. customers with Full Self-Driving package just last week. Our cars will now automatically stop at each stop sign or traffic lights until the driver gets a confirmation to proceed. I should say that the car is actually capable of much more than this, but we are only exposing functionality that we feel quite good about and where we feel that it is probably a safety improvement. We are collecting data from over 1 million intersections every month at this point. This number will grow exponentially as more people get the update and as more people start driving again. Soon, we will be collecting data from over 1 billion intersections per month.

關於Autopilot，我們在3月份向搶先體驗用戶發布了針對交通號誌和停車標誌的全新軟體更新，並在上周向所有擁有全自動駕駛套件的美國客戶發布了更新。現在，我們的汽車將在每個停車標誌或交通號誌前自動停車，直到駕駛員獲得繼續行駛的確認。應該說，這款車的實際功能遠不止於此，但我們目前隻公開了我們認為非常滿意、並且可能有助於提升安全性的功能。目前，我們每月收集超過100萬個交叉路口的數據。隨著越來越多的用戶獲得更新，以及越來越多的人重新開始駕駛，這個數字將呈指數級增長。很快，我們每個月收集的數據將超過10億個交叉路口。

All of those confirmations are training on neural net. Essentially, the driver when driving and taking action is effectively labeling the -- labeling reality as they drive, and it makes them really get better and better. I think this is an advantage that no one else has, and we're quite literally orders of magnitude more than everyone else combined. I think this is difficult to fully appreciate. It's the reason I'd say it's very difficult to have a search engine that competes with Google because everyone is training Google all the time with their searches. So when you search something, and you click on a link, you're training Google every time you do that. It's just very difficult for any new search engine to compete on that basis.

所有這些確認都是在神經網路上訓練的。本質上，駕駛員在駕駛和採取行動時實際上是在標記現實，這使得他們變得越來越好。我認為這是其他人所沒有的優勢，而且我們確實比其他所有人加起來都要多幾個數量級。我認為這很難完全理解。這就是為什麼我認為很難有一個搜尋引擎能與谷歌競爭，因為每個人都在用他們的搜尋訓練谷歌。所以，當你搜尋某個東西，點擊一個連結時，你每次這樣做都在訓練Google。任何新的搜尋引擎都很難在這個基礎上競爭。

So all those confirmations are training on neural net, and soon cars will be able to drive through an intersection without a confirmation as well as to make turns. And we really feel we're -- I feel extremely confident that it will be possible to do a drive from your home to your office most of the time with no interventions by the end of the year. So this is -- we can almost do this already with the leading-edge alpha builds driving in the car.

所以所有這些確認都在神經網路上進行訓練，很快汽車就能在無需確認的情況下通過十字路口，也能轉彎。我們真的相信——我非常有信心，到今年年底，汽車將能夠實現大多數情況下無需任何干預就能從家裡開車到辦公室。所以，憑藉領先的Alpha測試版，我們幾乎已經可以做到這一點。

So let's see, on other technology fronts, we increased the range of Model S and X yet again, this time to 391 miles for Model S and 351 miles for Model X. Actually, we said that, actually, the model -- the real Model S range is 400 miles. But when we did the last EPA test, unfortunately, EPA had left the car door opened and the keys in the car. So the car -- and they did this overnight. And so the car actually went into waiting-for-driver mode and lost 2% of its range and, as a result, had a 391 test. As soon as the EPA reopens for testing, we will redo the test, and we're actually confident that we will achieve a 400-mile or greater range with the Model S. But to be clear, the Model S for the past 2 months -- the true range of the Model S for the past 2 months has been 400 miles. And of course, we're not stopping there. We're looking -- we're going to continue pushing for improved range over time and improving handling, acceleration and all the little details that make Tesla special.

那麼，讓我們看看，在其他技術方面，我們再次增加了 Model S 和 X 的續航里程，這次 Model S 的續航里程達到了 391 英里，Model X 的續航里程達到了 351 英里。實際上，我們說過，Model S 的實際續航里程是 400 英里。但不幸的是，上次進行 EPA 測試時，EPA 忘記關車門，鑰匙也忘在車上了。他們連夜進行了測試。結果車輛進入了等待駕駛員模式，損失了 2% 的續航里程，最終的續航里程為 391 英里。一旦 EPA 重新開放測試，我們將重新進行測試，我們有信心 Model S 的續航里程達到 400 英里甚至更高。但要明確說明的是，過去兩個月 Model S 的實際續航里程是 400 英里。當然，我們不會止步於此。我們正在尋找——我們將繼續努力提高續航里程，並改善操控性、加速性和所有使特斯拉與眾不同的小細節。

For Model Y, we introduced a revolutionary 2-piece rear underbody casting, but we are going to be making a single-piece casting later this year, meaning like essentially the rear third of the body is cast as a single piece, which is no casting of this size and complexity has ever been done before. In fact, there isn't even anything that is on par with the 2-piece casting for the Model Y. So we're really pushing the envelope on vehicle structural engineering and manufacturing. I'm very excited about this approach as it allows us to reduce the weight of the cast and improve NVH. It's better in every way, essentially.

對於Model Y，我們引入了革命性的兩件式後底板鑄件，但今年稍後我們將推出一體式鑄件，這意味著車身後部的三分之一基本上是一體成型的，這種尺寸和復雜性的鑄件以前從未出現過。事實上，甚至沒有任何鑄件能與Model Y的兩件式鑄件相媲美。因此，我們確實在突破車輛結構工程和製造的極限。我對這種方法感到非常興奮，因為它可以減輕鑄件的重量並改善NVH性能。本質上，它在各個方面都表現得更好。

We also -- for Model Y, we also introduced a revolutionary new heat pump, which allows the car to have a higher range. So the Model Y has remarkable range, on par with -- in fact, slightly better than, I guess, the Model 3, and despite being a bigger car that weighs more. And the heat pump is a key contributor to that. It is especially excellent at low-temperature driving. So -- and the feedback we're getting from customers who have received the Model Y thus far has been universally positive. We're confident this product will be our best-selling product ever.

我們還為 Model Y 引入了革命性的新型熱泵，使其續航里程更長。因此，儘管 Model Y 車身更大、重量更重，但它擁有非凡的續航里程，與 Model 3 相當，甚至略勝一籌。熱泵是其中的關鍵因素，它在低溫駕駛下表現尤為出色。到目前為止，我們從 Model Y 客戶那裡得到的回饋普遍積極。我們相信，這款產品將成為我們有史以來最暢銷的產品。

So in conclusion, and just looking -- I guess this is a forward-looking statement, we are absolutely continuing our Model Y capacity expansion at full speed at both Giga Berlin and Giga Shanghai, and here in Fremont when they will let us continue. Localized production in China and in Europe will bring the costs down, making our products even more competitive over time. While many other companies are cutting back on investment, we are doing the opposite. We are absolutely pedal to the metal on new products and expanding the company. And we're really looking forward to being, sometime next year, a truly global manufacturer with major factories in North America, China and Europe and a capacity of well over 1 million units a year. So there's a tremendous amount to look forward to, and we can't wait to tell you what's going to happen. Thank you.

總而言之，這只是一個前瞻性的聲明，我們絕對會繼續在柏林超級工廠和上海超級工廠全速擴張Model Y的產能，如果允許的話，我們也會繼續在弗里蒙特工廠擴張。在中國和歐洲的在地化生產將降低成本，使我們的產品隨著時間的推移更具競爭力。當許多其他公司正在削減投資時，我們卻反其道而行。我們絕對會全力以赴地開發新產品並擴大公司規模。我們非常期待明年某個時候成為真正的全球製造商，在北美、中國和歐洲擁有主要工廠，年產能將遠超過100萬輛。因此，我們有很多值得期待的事情，我們迫不及待告訴您接下來會發生什麼。謝謝。

Thank you. And now to Zach's opening remarks.

謝謝。現在請扎克致開幕詞。

Yes. Thanks, Martin, and thanks, Elon. I'm very proud of the accomplishments of the Tesla team this past quarter. A few things to highlight and add to what Elon just mentioned. We successfully launched, ramped and demonstrated profitability of the Model Y, as Elon mentioned, significantly ahead of schedule. This is our second large-scale product launch since Model 3 in 2017, and it's evidence to the progress we've made on cost control and ramp efficiency. It's hard to understate the significance of demonstrating profitability of this program in its first quarter of production.

是的。謝謝馬丁，也謝謝埃隆。我為特斯拉團隊在上個季度所取得的成就感到非常自豪。除了伊隆剛才提到的，我還有幾點要強調和補充。正如埃隆所說，我們成功地推出了Model Y，實現了量產，並展示了盈利能力，這比計劃提前了很多。這是自2017年Model 3以來我們第二次大規模的產品發布，證明了我們在成本控制和量產效率方面的進展。在該專案投產的第一個季度就展現獲利能力，其重要性不容小覷。

Our Shanghai Model 3 margins improved dramatically since Q4 of last year, nearing equivalents of Model 3s built in Fremont. This is despite not yet running at full capacity while also managing through the production shutdown in early February. We also announced a long-range and performance variant of Model 3 for our road map, which will positively impact ASPs in China.

自去年第四季以來，上海工廠生產的 Model 3 利潤率大幅提升，已接近弗里蒙特工廠生產的 Model 3 的水平。儘管工廠尚未滿載運轉，且2月初也經歷了停產，但利潤率仍保持穩定。我們也宣布了長續航和高性能版 Model 3 的路線圖，這將對中國市場的平均售價產生正面影響。

On order rates, we did not experience much of an impact related to the expiration of government incentives at the end of Q4. In fact, we exited the quarter with our highest-ever backlog yet again. Aided by these accomplishments, we are able to achieve our first-ever Q1 profit. Automotive gross margin, excluding the impact of regulatory credits, remained strong for all products despite charges taken in Q1 associated with production downtime. We continue to make progress on OpEx efficiency as well as our service and other margins. Our energy business was impacted as well by shutdown activities in Q1, limiting deployments. We also experienced expected launch inefficiencies associated with our third version of the Solar Roof, which impacted overall profitability.

在訂單率方面，我們並未受到第四季末政府激勵措施到期的重大影響。事實上，我們在本季結束時再次創下了歷史最高訂單量。在這些成就的推動下，我們實現了第一季的首次獲利。儘管第一季計入了與生產停工相關的費用，但所有產品的汽車毛利率（不包括監管信貸的影響）仍然保持強勁。我們在營運支出效率以及服務和其他利潤率方面繼續取得進展。我們的能源業務也受到第一季停工活動的影響，限制了部署。我們也經歷了與第三代太陽能屋頂相關的預期發佈效率低下，這影響了整體獲利能力。

As I've noted before, we expect regulatory credit sales, which are credits we sell to other carmakers, to generally increase with time. This can be seen by the increase from Q1 relative to Q4. And note that most of the credit revenue did not contribute to cash in Q1, and it's reflected in the accounts receivable on the balance sheet.

正如我之前提到的，我們預期監管信貸銷售額（即我們出售給其他汽車製造商的信貸額度）通常會隨著時間的推移而成長。從第一季相對於第四季的成長可以看出這一點。需要注意的是，第一季的大部分信貸收入並未轉化為現金，這反映在資產負債表的應收帳款中。

Our free cash flows were impacted by the temporary increase in end-of-quarter inventory for all our products resulting from the abrupt suspension of production and delivery operations. Had these interruptions not occurred, we were pacing towards a record quarter of deliveries and strong free cash flows.

由於生產和交付業務突然暫停，我們所有產品的季度末庫存暫時增加，這影響了我們的自由現金流。如果沒有這些中斷，我們有望實現創紀錄的季度交付量和強勁的自由現金流。

As Elon mentioned, it is extremely important that we remain on track to achieve our long-term plans and technology road map. We are taking the near-term actions required to continue those investments. Model Y in Shanghai and Berlin are proceeding as planned, and we're making progress on improving capacity for Model Y in Fremont and Model 3 in Shanghai. In the near term, our Shanghai factory remains operational, contributing an increasing level of cash flows and profitability to the company. In Fremont, we're working towards restarting production as soon as that's possible.

正如伊隆所說，保持長期規劃和技術路線圖的正確軌道至關重要。我們正在採取必要的短期行動，以繼續這些投資。上海和柏林的Model Y生產正在按計劃進行，我們也在提升弗里蒙特工廠Model Y和上海工廠Model 3的產能方面取得了進展。短期內，我們的上海工廠仍在運營，為公司貢獻更高的現金流和獲利能力。在弗里蒙特工廠，我們正在努力盡快恢復生產。

We are also continuing to deliver cars that we were unable to deliver at the end of the first quarter. Our vehicle inventory balance increased by 14,000 units at the end of Q1, which was a headwind to free cash flows in Q1, but it's helpful in Q2. Note that one of the most important aspects of Model Y in Fremont and Model 3 in Shanghai is the dramatically improved cash conversion cycle by locally producing and delivering vehicles.

我們還在繼續交付第一季末未能交付的車輛。第一季末，我們的車輛庫存增加了1.4萬輛，這對第一季的自由現金流造成了阻力，但對第二季度卻有所幫助。需要注意的是，弗里蒙特工廠的Model Y和上海工廠的Model 3最重要的方面之一是，透過在當地生產和交付車輛，現金週轉週期得到了顯著改善。

While sales and delivery operations have paused in many areas of the world, we are still receiving many online orders despite inability for our customers to experience the product prior to ordering. However, unavoidably, the extended shutdown in Fremont will have an impact on our near-term financial performance, and we will need to work through how quickly we'll be able to ramp production to prior levels. More broadly, we remain focused on ensuring our cash flows are managed appropriately. Working capital management, in particular raw material inventory, is the single most important lever in managing our cash flows during this time. The Tesla team has done a great job here. We've also taken actions to eliminate or reduce noncritical expenses and optional investments while continuing to drive efficiencies throughout the business.

儘管全球許多地區的銷售和配送業務已暫停，但我們仍然收到大量線上訂單，儘管我們的客戶無法在訂購前體驗產品。然而，弗里蒙特工廠的長期停工不可避免地會對我們的短期財務表現產生影響，我們需要確定如何快速將產量提升至先前的水平。更廣泛地說，我們仍然專注於確保現金流量得到妥善管理。營運資金管理，尤其是原料庫存，是在此期間管理現金流的最重要槓桿。特斯拉團隊在這方面做得非常出色。我們也採取了措施，消除或減少了非關鍵性支出和可選投資，同時繼續提高整個業務的效率。

Overall, we've modeled many scenarios into 2021 and remain comfortable that we have sufficient liquidity to proceed fully with our most important long-term investments. It's important to note that Tesla remains an extremely agile and dynamic company, and this is aided by the substantial work we've done over the last year to improve our cost efficiency and productivity. And we have the ability to quickly adjust our spending and planning as required.

整體而言，我們已經模擬了2021年的多種情景，並確信我們擁有充足的流動性，可以全面推進我們最重要的長期投資。值得注意的是，特斯拉仍然是一家極其敏捷和充滿活力的公司，這要歸功於我們在過去一年中為提高成本效率和生產力所做的大量工作。我們有能力根據需要快速調整支出和計劃。

So thank you again to the Tesla team for success in Q1, and we will turn to questions.

再次感謝特斯拉團隊在第一季的成功，我們接下來將開始提問。

Thank you very much. So we'll take the first questions from institutional investors compiled by Say Technologies. The first question from institutional investor is, most Tesla owners have yet to purchase or experience FSD despite most vehicles having all the necessary hardware. What levers could you pull to accelerate adoption and deepen your data advantage? For example, could you consider offering FSD as a premium subscription?

非常感謝。接下來，我們將回答由 Say Technologies 整理的機構投資者提出的第一個問題。機構投資者的第一個問題是，儘管大多數特斯拉汽車都配備了所有必要的硬件，但大多數車主尚未購買或體驗 FSD。您可以採取哪些措施來加速 FSD 的普及並深化您的數據優勢？例如，您可以考慮將 FSD 作為高級訂閱服務提供嗎？

I think we will offer Full Self-Driving as a subscription service, but it will be probably towards the end of this year. I should say it will still make sense to buy FSD as an option as, in our view, buying FSD is an investment in the future. And we are confident that it is an investment that will pay off to the consumer and to the benefit of the consumer. In my opinion, buying FSD option is something people will not regret doing.

我認為我們會將全自動駕駛功能作為訂閱服務推出，但可能要到今年年底。我認為，購買 FSD 作為選項仍然有意義，因為在我們看來，購買 FSD 是對未來的投資。我們相信，這項投資將為消費者帶來回報，並使其受益。我認為，購買 FSD 選項絕對不會後悔。

I agree. And financially, rolling the upfront purchase of your -- of the FSD option into a loan in the vehicle or a lease is -- will be the least expensive plan on a monthly basis to own, plus you preserve the option value of increased value of time. But we do understand that some customers who have ownership or have leased their vehicles did not purchase that option upfront. And so this will enable those customers to spread out the cost of ownership of FSD or subscription over time.

我同意。從經濟角度來看，將FSD選項的預付購買費用轉為車輛貸款或租賃費用，將是每月最便宜的方案，而且你還能保留時間價值帶來的選擇權價值。但我們確實了解到，有些擁有或租賃車輛的客戶並沒有預付購買該選項。因此，這將使這些客戶能夠分攤FSD或訂閱的擁有成本。

Yes, absolutely. As you may be like, at a high level, our overall goal is to maximize the area under the curve of customer happiness. That is our goal. And we think that that's the kind of thing that all companies should try to do. And it's what results in long-term value creation. And loyalty begets loyalty. So our goal is always really to do the best thing for the customers, and we're confident that if we behave like that, the customers in turn will behave the same way to us.

是的，絕對是如此。正如您可能想到的，從宏觀層面來看，我們的總體目標是最大化客戶滿意度曲線下面積。這就是我們的目標。我們認為所有公司都應該努力做到這一點。這樣才能創造長期價值。忠誠會帶來忠誠。因此，我們的目標始終是為客戶提供最好的服務，我們相信，如果我們這樣做，客戶也會以同樣的方式對待我們。

Thank you. The second question from investors is, China recently announced changes to its NEV subsidy program that disqualifies Tesla vehicles from benefiting from the subsidies. To what extent is there room for Tesla to lower manufacturing costs in China and pass those savings to buyer so they can qualify for the subsidy?

謝謝。投資者的第二個問題是，中國最近宣布修改其新能源汽車補貼計劃，導致特斯拉汽車不再享有補貼。特斯拉在多大程度上可以降低在中國的生產成本，並將節省的成本轉嫁給買家，從而獲得補貼資格？

Yes. So we are making rapid progress on lowering the production cost in China. And we're actually excited to announce on this call that we will be reducing the price of the standard range Model 3 basically tomorrow, China time. So the day after tomorrow, California time, but tomorrow, China time. And that will be a price below the subsidy limit. And we feel confident that, that will still be a vehicle that delivers a good gross margin.

是的。我們在降低中國生產成本方面正在快速取得進展。我們非常高興地在這次電話會議上宣布，我們將在明天（中國時間）降低標準續航里程 Model 3 的價格。也就是後天（加州時間），也就是明天（中國時間）。價格將低於補貼限額。我們有信心，這款車仍然能夠提供良好的毛利率。

Yes. And on the manufacturing cost portion of the question, the cost of vehicles produced in Shanghai in Q1 is already lower than the cost to produce the Model 3 in Fremont, and there's still significant opportunity left to take cost out. So our fixed cost absorption from higher production volumes, which are occurring in Q2, will occur through the rest of the year. We're not fully localized on the supply chain yet. And so while a lot of the supply chain is localized, it's not complete, and there's additional opportunities there. And so we'll continue to bring the price down and expand margin -- costs down and expand margin even with this reduction in price that Elon mentioned on the standard range version of the vehicle.

是的。關於製造成本問題，第一季在上海生產的Model 3的成本已經低於在弗里蒙特生產的成本，而且仍有很大的成本削減空間。因此，我們在第二季度透過提高產量吸收的固定成本將在今年剩餘時間內持續下去。我們的供應鏈尚未完全本地化。因此，雖然許多供應鏈已經在地化，但尚未完成，而且還有更多機會。因此，即使伊隆提到的標準續航版Model 3的價格有所下降，我們仍將繼續降低價格，提高利潤率——降低成本，提高利潤率。

Thank you. The next question is, Andy Grove once said that great companies are improved by crises. In which way has Tesla improved or is expected to improve coming out of COVID-19?

謝謝。下一個問題是，安迪·格羅夫曾說過，偉大的公司會在危機中成長。在新冠疫情之後，特斯拉在哪些方面有所進步，或者預計會有哪些進步？

Well, it has caused us to look closely at our cost structure and to be more efficient as a company. That's -- one always has to do that in a crisis. And just thinking about our core beliefs and what do we want to do, and we came to a conclusion that the right move is actually to continue to expand rapidly, continue to invest in the future and in new technologies, even though it is risky. And we've talked to some of our key investors, and they support that approach as well. So I think that there's clearly an uncertain future ahead. It's a bit of a bumpy road. But I think the long-term prospects are extremely good. Anything you guys want to add?

這促使我們仔細檢視成本結構，提高公司效率。危機時刻，我們必須這麼做。我們思考了我們的核心信念以及我們想要做什麼，最終得出結論：即使風險很大，正確的做法實際上是繼續快速擴張，繼續投資未來和新技術。我們已經與一些關鍵投資者進行了溝通，他們也支持這種做法。所以，我認為未來充滿不確定性，道路坎坷。但我認為長期前景非常好。你們還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, I agree with that, Elon. The prioritization on the key projects will enable us to execute more efficiently and faster on them, which I think is great. The other one that I would add is it's always been our vision at Tesla to improve the customer experience and make that as digital as possible.

是的，我同意，伊隆。對關鍵項目進行優先排序，能讓我們更有效率、更快地執行，我認為這很棒。另外我想補充的是，改善客戶體驗，並使其盡可能數位化，一直是特斯拉的願景。

Yes. Touchless delivery.

是的。無接觸送貨。

So touchless delivery, mobile service, touchless sales has been something that we've been very focused on and made a lot of progress on.

因此，我們一直非常關注非接觸式送貨、行動服務、非接觸式銷售，並且取得了巨大進展。

Yes. The Tesla is the only car that you can literally order in less than 5 minutes on your phone, you can order a car and have it delivered to your doorstep with all the paper and everything done. That's it. Effortless.

是的。特斯拉是唯一一款只需不到5分鐘就能在手機上訂購的汽車，你可以訂購一輛，然後送貨上門，所有手續齊全。就這麼簡單，毫不費力。

And many customers do that.

許多顧客都這樣做。

And they're doing it, yes. In fact, a big part of it is just trying to communicate to people that this is something you can do because normally, buying a car is quite a pain. For most people, they would rather go to the dentist than buy a new car. Actually, my dentist is great. But it's really like quite an arduous thing. When the typical retail experience for buying a new car is more painful to people than having a root canal done, you have to say, well -- and for Tesla, it is completely as easy as ordering something from the Apple App Store or ordering something on Amazon, and except it's a car. Yes. All right. And 5 minutes is -- if you really went fast, I think you could order a car probably in 90 seconds, so...

是的，他們確實在這麼做。實際上，很大一部分原因是為了讓人們知道這是可以做到的，因為通常情況下，買車是一件非常麻煩的事。對大多數人來說，他們寧願去看牙醫，也不願意買新車。其實，我的牙醫很棒。但這確實是一件相當費力的事。當人們在典型的零售環境中購買新車比做根管治療還要痛苦時，你不得不說，好吧——而對於特斯拉來說，這完全就像在蘋果應用商店或在亞馬遜上訂購東西一樣簡單，只不過是一輛車。是的。好吧。 5分鐘——如果你真的跑得很快，我想你大概可以在90秒內訂購一輛車，所以…

Thank you. The next question is from institutional investor is, can you give us a brief preview of the Battery Day by generally highlighting steps Tesla is taking to improve self-energy density and time line for introduction?

謝謝。下一個問題來自機構投資者，您能否簡要介紹一下電池日，概括介紹一下特斯拉在提高自能量密度方面正在採取的措施以及推出的時間表？

Yes. Actually, we were just -- we don't want to preempt Battery Day. We want to -- leave the exciting news for that day, but there will be a lot of exciting news to tell. And I think it would be one of the most exciting days in Tesla's history. And we're just trying to figure out the right timing for that. We think probably the right timing will be the -- probably the third week of May. Not giving a firm date, but we think that probably that's the right timing. And depending upon what we're allowed to do, it will either be in California or Texas.

是的。實際上，我們只是…我們不想搶佔電池日的先機。我們想把令人興奮的消息留到那天發布，但那天確實會有很多令人興奮的消息可以分享。我認為那將是特斯拉歷史上最令人興奮的日子之一。我們正在努力尋找合適的時機。我們認為合適的時間可能是五月的第三週。雖然沒有確定日期，但我們認為這可能是合適的時間。具體地點將取決於我們被允許做什麼，地點可能是加州或德克薩斯州。

Okay. And the last question from institutional investors, could you please update on progress towards development and commercialization of Full Self-Driving? How much revenue have you recognized so far?

好的。最後一個來自機構投資者的問題，能否介紹一下全自動駕駛的開發和商業化進展？目前確認的收入是多少？

So there's a couple of things on the financials for Full Self-Driving. So currently, in North America, it's sold for $7,000 as an option. We take roughly half of that as revenue, and the other half of it goes into deferred revenue. That's associated with features that will be released with time. Our deferred revenue balance is continuing to grow. It's a little bit over $600 million. And so as we release features with time, at the end of every quarter, we take a look at what features have been released, the associated value, and then we can release that from the deferred revenue into our financials for that quarter. And then cars going forward, once the feature is released, we can recognize that revenue. So we reduce the amount of deferral, and we can recognize that revenue within period. So I mean, this is one of what we think will be one of the most powerful gross margin levers with time as the feature suite is rolled out.

關於全自動駕駛的財務數據，有幾點需要注意。目前，在北美，全自動駕駛的售價為 7,000 美元，作為選配。我們將其中大約一半計入收入，另一半計入遞延收入。這部分收入與後續發布的功能有關。我們的遞延收入餘額持續成長，目前略高於 6 億美元。隨著我們逐步發布新功能，我們在每個季度末都會查看已發布的功能及其相關價值，然後將其從遞延收入中計入當季財務報表。對於未來的車型，一旦該功能發布，我們就可以確認這筆收入。因此，我們減少了遞延收入，並且可以在期內確認這筆收入。所以，隨著功能套件的推出，我們認為這將成為最強大的毛利率槓桿之一。

Absolutely. There's also a tremendous amount of untapped potential in the fleet out there that could upgrade to turn on Autopilot -- basic Autopilot or Full Self-Driving. And that's something that we will enable just as simple in-app purchase or as we talked about earlier, just towards the end of the year, as a subscription. So that's just a lot of untapped potential there. That's not in the deferred revenue line, obviously, but is -- which is certainly a great deal of deferred potential that we think is -- a large portion of which is likely to reach fruition.

當然。現有的車隊中還有巨大的未開發潛力，可以升級到自動駕駛模式——無論是基礎版自動駕駛還是完全自動駕駛。我們將在年底前推出這項功能，就像我們之前提到的那樣，以簡單的應用程式內購買或訂閱的方式提供。所以，這裡面還有很大的未開發潛力。當然，這不在遞延收入的範疇內，但我們認為這無疑是一個巨大的遞延潛力，其中很大一部分可能會實現。

Thank you. And now let's go to the questions from retail investors. Question number one, Elon has mentioned a 50% compound annual growth target for Tesla in the past. Is this still in line with Tesla's ambitions for the next 5 to 10 years? This would be 4 million vehicles in 2025 and more than 20 million vehicles in 2030. Is 40% a more realistic target?

謝謝。現在我們來回答散戶的問題。第一個問題，伊隆過去曾提到特斯拉50%的複合年增長率目標。這是否仍符合特斯拉未來5到10年的野心？特斯拉的目標是2025年銷售量達到400萬輛，2030年銷售量超過2,000萬輛。 40%是一個更現實的目標嗎？

Well, it's always difficult to predict what the macro situation is going to be. I think very few people would have predicted the unexpected roundhouse that COVID came up with -- it sort of came out of nowhere. So I think in the absence of something -- some massive force majeure event, like quite massive, I think [50%] is the likely number. It's possible that it's 40%. I would be very shocked if it's less than 40% even with force majeure, short of World War III.

嗯，宏觀形勢總是很難預測。我認為很少人能預料到新冠疫情會造成如此突如其來的衝擊——它來得有點突然。所以我認為，在沒有發生大規模不可抗力事件的情況下，例如相當大規模的不可抗力事件，我認為[50%] 是可能的數字。也可能是 40%。即使發生不可抗力事件（除非是第三次世界大戰），如果這個數字低於 40%，我也會感到非常震驚。

Okay. The next question from retail investors, when will you announce the next Giga? How many Gigas do you have planned for the next 5 years?

好的。散戶的下一個問題是：您何時宣布下一個千兆？未來5年您計劃實現多少個千兆？

I think we will announce the next Giga possibly as soon as a month. We may not -- as soon as next month. This is not a prediction, just saying. That's -- that could happen. It will certainly be within 3 months and possibly 1 month. And that would be in the U.S. So as for how many will be in 5 years? I'm not -- I don't know right now what that number would be. I guess several more than there are today, but I'm not sure what exactly it would be in 5 years, but some number more than today.

我認為我們最快可能在一個月內宣布下一個千兆資料中心的建設。也可能不會——最快在下個月。這不是預測，只是說說而已。這有可能發生。肯定會在3個月內，也可能在1個月內。而且是在美國。那麼5年後會有多少個千兆資料中心呢？我現在不知道這個數字是多少。我猜會比現在多幾個，但我不確定5年後具體是多少，但肯定比現在多一些。

I'll also add that our Gigas have gotten bigger.

我還要補充一點，我們的 Gigas 已經變得更大了。

Yes. It could arguably -- it could start being called Tera.

是的。它可以被稱為 Tera。

Yes, with multiple products as well. And so the absolute number of Giga factories we may ultimately build might be less, but each one is larger. And that's under our belief that just significant efficiencies by having as much as possible and similar product lines under the same roof and as much vertical integration as possible all in one facility.

是的，而且產品種類繁多。因此，我們最終可能建造的超級工廠的絕對數量可能會更少，但每個工廠的規模都會更大。我們相信，透過在同一工廠內盡可能生產類似的產品線，並盡可能地實現垂直整合，就能顯著提高效率。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you. The next question is, can you give us an update on Solar Roof ramp? How many are you currently able to install per week? What is your installation per week target for the end of 2021?

謝謝。下一個問題是，您能介紹一下太陽能屋頂坡道的最新情況嗎？目前您每周可以安裝多少個？到2021年底，您每週的安裝目標是多少？

We were actually gaining tremendous momentum with the Solar Roof before COVID, but COVID essentially shut us down, both from the ability to install and the ability to get permits, like permit offices were closed. And with the shelter-in-place all over the places, so we obviously cannot install. And if you can't get permits, then you can't physically do it. It's physically impossible. So -- but I think the long-term trend for Solar Roof is extremely good, and I'm confident that, let's say, within the next, I don't know, year -- maybe even by end of year, we should be installing at a rate of 1,000 a week. That's not in the middle of winter or something. It's like taking seasonality -- allowing for seasonality where it's hard to install on roofs that are covered in snow and ice, but like in, say, spring, I think installing, which is the hard part, we actually have demonstrated the ability to hit 1,000 a week gross build rate for the Solar Glass Roof already, so that's not a problem. It's building up the install teams, building up the third-party channel installers, the roofing industry installers.

在新冠疫情之前，我們的太陽能屋頂業務發展勢頭強勁，但新冠疫情實際上讓我們停工了，安裝和獲得許可都受阻，因為許可辦公室都關閉了。各地都實行居家隔離，我們顯然無法安裝。如果拿不到許可，就無法實際安裝。這在物理上是不可能的。所以——但我認為太陽能屋頂的長期趨勢非常好，而且我有信心，比如說，在接下來的一年裡——甚至可能到年底，我們應該能以每週1000個的速度安裝。這可不是在隆冬時節。這就像考慮季節性因素——考慮到季節性因素，在冰雪覆蓋的屋頂上安裝會很困難，但比如說在春季，我認為安裝是最困難的部分，實際上我們已經證明了我們有能力達到每週1000個太陽能玻璃屋頂的總建造率，所以這不是問題。它正在建立安裝團隊、第三方通路安裝人員、屋頂產業安裝人員。

And internally, we want to have at least 1,000 Solar Roof install teams with -- and taking a week or perhaps a little less than a week to do an install, which gets you 1,000 a week roof installations. We see demand is good. Production is good. So it's really all about the install. And then like I said also building out the -- training the very diverse group of companies in the roofing industry to also install Solar Roof that I think will scale -- allow us to scale far beyond 1,000 a week. We're also seeing a lot of interest outside of North America. So we do expect this to be a product that is international and actually seeing a tremendous amount of interest from China on the Solar Roof. So we're confident that this will be a very significant product for the company over time.

在內部，我們希望至少擁有1000個太陽能屋頂安裝團隊，每個安裝團隊只需一周或不到一周的時間，這樣每週就能安裝1000個屋頂。我們看到需求良好，產量也不錯。所以，關鍵在於安裝。然後，就像我說的，我們還要培訓屋頂行業中形形色色的公司，讓他們也安裝太陽能屋頂，我認為這將擴大規模，讓我們的安裝規模遠遠超過每週1000個。我們也看到北美以外的地區對此很感興趣。因此，我們確實希望這是一款國際化的產品，而中國市場對太陽能屋頂也表現出了濃厚的興趣。因此，我們相信，隨著時間的推移，這將成為公司一款非常重要的產品。

Thank you. The next question is, can you elaborate on Tesla's plan to enter the residential and/or commercial HVAC market? Can you provide some basics of how your system will work? Will you consider the heat pump water heater market as well?

謝謝。下一個問題是，您能詳細談談特斯拉進軍住宅和/或商用暖通空調市場的計畫嗎？能介紹一下你們的系統運作原理嗎？你們也會考慮熱泵熱水器市場嗎？

Well, as I said on Twitter, I'm personally extremely excited to build a kick-ass HVAC system that also has sort of a hospital-grade particle filtration, basically have a filtration that filters out viruses, bacteria, pollen, fungi and also neutralizes silicon and alkaline gases that is quiet and efficient. And these are all things we've achieved in our cars by the way. In fact, I don't know if a lot of people realized, but the Model S and X are the only cars in the world that have a hospital operating room grade heavy filters built in. They're very big. So you can get to a particle count that is insanely low with our cars.

正如我在推特上所說，我個人非常興奮能夠打造一套強大的暖通空調系統，它還配備了醫院級的顆粒過濾功能，基本上可以過濾掉病毒、細菌、花粉、真菌，還能中和矽和鹼性氣體，安靜高效。順便說一句，這些都已經在我們的汽車上實現了。事實上，我不知道很多人是否意識到這一點，但Model S和X是世界上僅有的兩款內置醫院手術室級重型過濾器的汽車。它們非常大。因此，我們的汽車可以實現極低的顆粒物含量。

And 3 and Y have like MERV 16 or 15 capable filtration.

3 和 Y 具有類似 MERV 16 或 15 的過濾能力。

Yes. That's why Model 3 and Y are -- they're no slouches. Model 3 and Y are also way -- they're way better than any other cars to the best of my knowledge. They're not quite as good as a hospital operating room, but they're extremely good, way better than any other normal car. And we're continuing to improve the filters on 3 and Y. These actually have a big effect on health even in normal just day-to-day living. It's reducing particle count, and it has an effect on allergies and all sorts of things. So it's really -- air quality is incredibly important even in the non-COVID situations, extremely important. So taking all those things that we've learned and applying it to how may HVAC would be and commercial HVAC would be just very exciting. And then if you've got -- if you're condensing water, like why not also have a few water source. If you have water, you possibly could then heat the water and have a water heater as well.

是的。這就是為什麼 Model 3 和 Model Y 如此出色。據我所知，Model 3 和 Model Y 也比任何其他車型都要好得多。它們不如醫院手術室那麼好，但也非常好，比任何其他普通車型都要好得多。我們正在繼續改進 Model 3 和 Model Y 的過濾器。即使在日常生活中，這些過濾器也對健康有很大的影響。它可以減少顆粒物數量，對過敏和其他各種問題都有效果。所以，即使在非新冠疫情期間，空氣品質也非常重要。所以，把我們學到的所有知識應用到 HVAC 系統，尤其是商用 HVAC 系統上，將非常令人興奮。如果你有冷凝水，為什麼不也準備一些水源呢？如果你有水，你就可以加熱水，也可以安裝熱水器。

Yes. Use it as a heat source if you need it instead of the outdoors, when the outdoors is really cold or the other way around. So lots of options.

是的。如果需要的話，可以用它來代替室外熱源，例如室外特別冷的時候，反之亦然。所以有很多選擇。

It could be a hell of a product. So we just have to -- at Tesla, we have a tendency to apply a formula [we configure] on the product front. So we're going to make sure we have a lot of ice in the fire here for new products with the Cybertruck, Semi, new Roadster and the Gigafactories in various parts of the world, and it's really Model Y, Autopilot and the Solar Roof and...

這可能是一款非常棒的產品。所以，我們必須…在特斯拉，我們傾向於在產品方面應用一套公式（我們自己配置的）。所以我們要確保我們有足夠的準備來應對 Cyber​​truck、Semi、新 Roadster 以及遍布世界各地的超級工廠，而這其中最重要的就是 Model Y、Autopilot 和太陽能屋頂等等…

New technologies.

新技術。

Yes, exactly. Powerwall, PowerPack, Megapack. We are seeing tremendous demand for stationary storage, more than we can supply, at least for 2020.

是的，沒錯。 Powerwall、PowerPack、Megapack 等。我們看到固定式儲能的需求量龐大，超過了我們的供應能力，至少在 2020 年是如此。

Thank you. And the last question from retail is, when will Tesla start acquiring utilities like the Hornsdale Power Reserve and Moss Landing instead of selling them battery storage? Does it make sense for Tesla to buy bigger plants and convert them?

謝謝。最後一個來自零售業的問題是，特斯拉什麼時候會開始收購霍恩斯代爾電力儲備和莫斯蘭丁等公用事業公司，而不是向他們出售電池儲能係統？特斯拉收購更大的發電廠並將其改造是否合理？

Well, we haven't really thought about that yet. It's not out of the question, but our brand is full. Excuse me, sir, our brand is full. That's not out of the question. Our overarching goal is to help accelerate the advent of sustainable energy. And the 3 elements of that are sustainable power generation; then you've got to store the power, stationary storage; and then you've got to have electric transportation. So -- and we don't have like, say, specific market share goals or anything like that. It's just, to the degree that we can accelerate the advent of sustainable energy, we think that's a fundamental good for the world, and we want to do that as fast as possible. But it's not, like I said, market share growth is a goal in and of itself. It's just faster this happens, the better off the world is.

嗯，我們還沒認真考慮過這個問題。這並非不可能，但我們的品牌已經很飽和了。不好意思，先生，我們的品牌已經飽和了。這並非不可能。我們的首要目標是幫助加速永續能源的到來。這包括三個要素：永續發電；電力儲存，即固定式儲能；以及電動交通。所以——我們沒有具體的市佔率目標之類的。只是，只要我們能夠加速永續能源的到來，我們認為這對世界來說是一件根本性的事情，我們希望盡快實現這一點。但正如我所說，市場佔有率成長本身並不是目標。它進展得越快，世界就越好。

Thank you very much. And I think now we can move to analyst questions.

非常感謝。現在我們可以開始分析師提問了。

Our first question will come from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

I hope everyone's safe and healthy. I got one question, one follow-up. And I'd point out, I've had a root canal before. And I would agree, Elon, it was less painful than buying a car.

希望大家都平安健康。我有一個問題，想跟進一下。我想說一下，我以前做過根管治療。伊隆，我同意你的說法，那比買車痛苦少。

Thanks. I mean, really, it's -- yes, exactly.

謝謝。我的意思是，真的——是的，確實如此。

Yes, it's a big problem, actually. It's a big problem.

是的，事實上，這是一個大問題。這是一個大問題。

It's crazy, yes.

是的，這太瘋狂了。

Different conversations. Zach, first, for you, any real-time update on company liquidity at the end of April? Some companies have, given the circumstances, gone out of their way to give a little color on that. Just want to get your shot at that. Then I got a follow-up.

不同的對話。札克，​​首先，請問您4月底公司流動性的即時更新如何？考慮到目前的情況，有些公司特意透露了一些資訊。我只是想讓您了解一下。然後我又進行了後續提問。

Yes. It's a fair question. I don't have any additional color to provide. So $8.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1, we're managing it very closely. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, we do have an increase in inventory of vehicles that we were unable to deliver at the end of Q1. So we're making progress delivering those through April, which is helpful for liquidity. And as we've been looking at liquidity, we've been looking at this over the next 18 months. And there's ups and downs to the liquidity. Currently now, as we're not producing, we still have payables from Q1 that we're paying off. But then in a couple of months, we'll quickly be through that, and then we'll have a gap in payables since we don't have any parts coming in. So it does go up and down a little bit. But in looking at the long-term horizon, which is how we're managing it right now, we feel pretty comfortable with the liquidity position of the company.

是的，這個問題問得好。我沒有其他細節可以提供。第一季末的現金和現金等價物為81億美元，我們正在非常嚴格地管理。正如我在開場白中提到的，我們在第一季末未能交付的車輛庫存有所增加。因此，我們在4月之前交付這些車輛方面取得了進展，這有助於提高流動性。我們一直在關注流動性，並且一直在關注未來18個月的情況。流動性有起有落。目前，由於我們沒有生產，我們仍有第一季的應付款項需要償還。但幾個月後，我們很快就會還清這些款項，然後由於沒有零件到貨，我們的應付款項就會出現缺口。所以，流動性確實會有一些波動。但從長遠來看，也就是我們目前的管理方式來看，我們對公司的流動性狀況感到相當滿意。

Yes. I should say we are a bit worried about not being able to resume production in the Bay Area, and that should be identified as a serious risk. We only have 2 car factories right now, 1 in Shanghai and 1 in the Bay Area. And the Bay Area produces the vast majority of our cars, all of S and X and most of the 3 and all of the Y. So the extension of the shelter-in-place or, frankly, I would call it forcibly imprisoning people in their homes against all their constitutional rights, that's my opinion, and breaking people's freedoms in ways that are horrible and wrong and not why people came to America or built this country, what the (expletive), excuse me, the outrage -- it's just outrage.

是的。應該說，我們有點擔心灣區無法恢復生產，這應該被視為嚴重的風險。我們現在只有兩家汽車工廠，一家在上海，一家在灣區。而灣區生產了我們絕大多數的汽車，包括所有S系列和X系列，以及大部分的3系列和所有Y系列。所以，延長居家隔離，或者坦白說，我稱之為強行將人們囚禁在家中，侵犯了他們所有憲法權利，這是我的觀點，它以可怕和錯誤的方式剝奪了人們的自由，這並非人們來到美國或建立這個國家的初衷，這（髒話），對不起，這令人憤慨——這純粹是令人憤慨。

So -- but it will cause great harm, not just to Tesla but to many companies. And while Tesla will weather the storm, there are many small companies that will not. And all the people's -- everything people have worked for their whole life is going to get -- is being destroyed in real time. And we're going to have many suppliers and are having many suppliers that are having super hard times, especially the small ones, and it's causing a lot of strife to a lot of people, yes.

所以——但這將造成巨大的傷害，不僅對特斯拉，對許多公司也是如此。雖然特斯拉能夠挺過這場風暴，但許多小公司卻無法承受。人們畢生奮鬥的一切都將瞬間被摧毀。我們將會有許多供應商，尤其是那些小供應商，陷入極其艱難的境地，這確實給許多人帶來了巨大的衝突。

Elon, on that point, you mentioned people that gave their lives to build the country, my thoughts for you on this. There have been a lot of comparisons drawn to the state of the U.S. economy to the early 1930s when Roosevelt began a series of new deals and infrastructure projects or post-World War II when Eisenhower launched the U.S. Highway Act and JFK launched the Apollo Program, which you could say was influenced by the Cold War clearly, and you benefited from and our space program benefited from, what would be your message to U.S. lawmakers on this call as we -- in addition to your opinions on shelter-in-place but thinking longer term, your message to U.S. lawmakers coming out of the crisis, specifically around EV infrastructure and a chance to kind of work with taxpayers to support sustainable transport and renewable energy? I'm wondering if you see this as a chance to make the crisis and all the loss and lives lost not be in vain.

伊隆，關於這一點，你提到了那些為建設國家而獻出生命的人們，我對此有何看法？許多人將美國經濟狀況與 20 世紀 30 年代初羅斯福開始一系列新政和基礎設施項目時的情況，或與二戰後艾森豪威爾推出美國公路法和肯尼迪啟動阿波羅計劃時的情況進行比較，可以說，這些都明顯受到了冷戰的影響，你和我們的太空計劃都從中受益。除了你對居家隔離的看法以及更長遠的考慮之外，在這次電話會議上，你想對美國立法者說些什麼？你想對走出危機的美國立法者說些什麼？特別是關於電動車基礎設施，以及與納稅人合作支持永續交通和再生能源的機會？我想知道你是否認為這是一個機會，讓危機和所有的損失和生命不致於白白浪費。

I think it's high time we invested in infrastructure in this country. We have a lot of crumbling highways and bridges. And frankly, when I visit China, I see their infrastructure as being much better than ours. It's great. Europe has better infrastructure. It's really quite sad that the U.S. infrastructure, especially sort of roads and highways, is where it is today. And our airports, in a lot of cases, are an embarrassment. So -- and it's not just a question of money, it's a question of will. Sometimes, we spend a lot of money on these things, but what are we gaining for it? So -- and yes, we really need to be thinking about what is the transportation of the future, not the transportation of the past. If this was 1920, do you want to be investing in steam engines or internal combustion engines? Obviously, not steam engines. So this is the time to think about the future and also to ask is it right to infringe upon people's rights as what is happening right now. I think the people are going to be very angry about this and are very angry. If somebody should be -- if somebody wants to stay in their house, that's great. They should be allowed to stay in their house, and they should not be compelled to leave. But to say that they cannot leave their house, and they will be arrested if they do, this is fascist. This is not democratic. This is not freedom. Give people back their goddamn freedom.

我認為現在是時候投資這個國家的基礎設施了。我們有很多破舊的高速公路和橋樑。坦白說，當我訪問中國時，我發現他們的基礎設施比我們好得多。這很好。歐洲的基礎設施較好。美國的基礎設施，尤其是公路和高速公路，如今的狀況真是令人遺憾。而我們的機場在許多情況下都令人尷尬。所以——這不只是錢的問題，而是意願的問題。有時，我們在這些事情上投入了大量資金，但我們得到了什麼？所以——是的，我們真的需要思考什麼是未來的交通方式，而不是過去的交通方式。如果這是1920年，你想投資蒸汽機還是內燃機？顯然，不是蒸氣機。所以現在是時候思考未來，也應該問問自己，像現在這樣侵犯人們的權利是否正確。我認為人們會對此非常憤怒，而且非常憤怒。如果有人應該——如果有人想待在家裡，那很好。他們應該被允許待在家裡，不應該被迫離開。但是，規定他們不能離開家，否則就會被逮捕，這是法西斯主義。這不是民主。這不是自由。把人們該死的自由還給他們。

Our next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

A question on Model Y, I was hoping you can elaborate a little bit more on the drivers of how the gross margin is already positive at such low volume. How much of it is a function of the commonality with the Model 3? What other factors should we think about? And what does that mean for the ampler for the eventual gross margin on Model Y?

關於Model Y的一個問題，我希望您能更詳細地解釋一下，在如此低的銷售量下，毛利率為何能夠達到正值。這其中有多少是源自於與Model 3的共通性？我們還應該考慮哪些其他因素？這對Model Y最終毛利率的提升意味著什麼？

Zach?

扎克？

Sure. A couple of thoughts there for Y. The first is it does carry a higher ASP. So on the revenue side, it carries a higher ASP than Model 3. And the deliveries that we started with were of the higher ASP versions of the cars. So we started with deliveries of performance initially. And so that helps create some of the margin. And that will come down with time as more variants are released, and we have more of a steady-state mix. But it's similar to the ASP trends that we had with Model 3 when we launched that product in Fremont 2 years ago.

當然。關於 Y，我有幾個想法。首先，它的平均售價確實更高。所以從營收角度來看，它的平均售價比 Model 3 還要高。我們最初交付的是平均售價較高的車型。所以我們最初交付的是性能車型。這有助於創造一些利潤。隨著更多車型的發布，利潤會逐漸下降，我們也會有更穩定的車型組合。但這與我們兩年前在弗里蒙特推出 Model 3 時的平均售價趨勢類似。

On the cost side, I think you hit on a couple of the buckets. The commonality is huge. It's very important. And in addition to that, manufacturing processes are very similar to Model 3 as well. And so we have experience with that, both with Model 3 in Fremont and then as well in Shanghai. And it helps to have an existing factory with existing workforce and knowledge here as well. So the ecosystem to support and launch the product is there. There remain a lot of opportunities to take -- continue to take cost out of the car. And the number of vehicles that we built in the first quarter is quite limited relative to our goal.

在成本方面，我認為你提到了幾個要點。共通之處非常多，這非常重要。除此之外，製造流程也與 Model 3 非常相似。我們在這方面都有經驗，無論是在弗里蒙特還是在上海，都生產過 Model 3。而且，在這裡擁有現有的工廠、現有的勞動力和知識也很有幫助。因此，支持和推出產品的生態系統已經存在。還有很多機會可以把握──繼續降低汽車成本。而且，相對於我們的目標而言，我們第一季生產的汽車數量相當有限。

Yes, agree. We can take cost out of the car and to make the product better. So it's a test, it's not make the product worse. It's -- and [anyone] can take costs out of a car, make it worse. We want to take cost out of the car, figure out how to make it lighter and simpler. And so it's -- we want the car to just incrementally improve as well as incrementally lowering cost. But for a 5-seater Model Y, we expect marginal cost of that car to be comparable to the Model 3 once we have reached, say, about 10,000 or 20,000 units or something like that and have -- did we go off-line?

是的，同意。我們可以降低汽車成本，讓產品更好。所以這只是一個測試，而不是讓產品變差。任何人都可以降低汽車成本，讓它變得更差。我們希望降低汽車成本，找到讓它更輕、更簡潔的方法。所以，我們希望汽車能夠逐步改進，同時逐步降低成本。但對於一款5人座Model Y，我們預計，一旦產量達到1萬輛或2萬輛左右，它的邊際成本將與Model 3相當——我們下線了嗎？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Speakers, you're back online.

各位發言人，您已重新上線。

Sorry, we got disconnected for some reason. What was the question again? Okay. Let's go to the next question, please.

抱歉，不知何故斷線了。剛才問的是什麼問題？好的。請問下一個問題。

The next question comes from Ben Kallo with Baird.

下一個問題來自貝爾德的本卡洛 (Ben Kallo)。

So just wondering about the cell strategy. In Reno, you have, obviously, integrated there. But you're buying cells, I think, in Shanghai and then, well, we think in Germany. And so how are you looking at that going forward? And then can you just talk about Mr. Mizuno and that Board addition and kind of the process with adding him to the Board?

我只是想知道電池戰略。在裡諾，你們顯然已經整合了那裡的電池。但我認為你們在上海購買電池，然後，嗯，我們想想在德國。那麼，您如何看待未來的發展呢？然後，您能否談談水野先生和董事會成員的增加，以及將他加入董事會的過程？

Sure. From a sales perspective, with all the partners we've had historically, in the future, we're just looking for competitive technology and competitive pricing. I think we'll talk a little bit more about this at Battery Investor Day, like, how we're approaching all of it. But -- so yes, I mean we don't have like one model we're restricting ourselves to pursue. We're just trying to find what's best for the products in the long run.

當然。從銷售角度來看，我們過去與所有合作夥伴合作，未來我們只尋求具有競爭力的技術和價格。我想我們會在電池投資者日上進一步討論這個問題，例如我們如何處理所有這些問題。但是——是的，我的意思是，我們不會局限於單一的模式。我們只是在努力尋找對產品長遠發展最有利的方案。

And then the other question about the Board?

那麼關於董事會的另一個問題是什麼？

Sorry, we couldn't hear the second part of the question.

抱歉，我們聽不到問題的第二部分。

Yes. I was asking about Mr. Mizuno entering the Board and kind of the process behind that and what he brings to the Board.

是的。我問的是水野先生加入董事會的情況，以及他加入董事會背後的流程，以及他能為董事會帶來什麼。

I think, well, we all need a Hiro. And obviously, he brings tremendous amount of experience investing at the highest levels in the world and has done great work as -- at the Japan pension fund, which is the largest, I think, fund of any kind in the world. And generally, the conversations over the years is just churning incredible insight into how the securities -- the global security markets work and what he thinks is -- whether [areas perform]. It just -- it seems like he has a strong philosophical understanding about how to make the future better. And he shares our view regarding the environment. And he's a very sensible, smart person who brings a lot to the Board and I think is generally recognized as such by many people.

我認為，我們都需要一個像Hiro這樣的人。顯然，他擁有豐富的全球頂級投資經驗，並且在日本退休基金（我認為是全球最大的基金）中表現出色。多年來，他與Hiro的交流不斷加深，深入了解了證券——全球證券市場的運作方式，以及他對[各領域表現如何]的看法。他似乎對如何讓未來變得更好有著深刻的哲學理解。在環境議題上，他與我們有著相同的觀點。他是一位非常明智、聰明的人，為董事會做出了許多貢獻，我認為很多人都認同這一點。

I guess linking into the Panasonic relationship, maybe just how is that relationship going? And is there any read-through on bringing him onto the Board?

我想這跟我們和松下的關係有關，或許只是想知道你們的關係進展如何？有沒有關於讓他加入董事會的詳細計劃？

No. I think this has got nothing to do with the Panasonic relationship. I mean I have a great relationship with the Panasonic CEO. We meet regularly one-on-one and talk all the time. And so that relationship is strong. Just -- he brings more -- a broader, I think, global strategic view to the Board.

不。我認為這與松下的關係無關。我的意思是，我和松下執行長關係很好。我們定期一對一會面，並且一直保持溝通。所以這種關係很牢固。只是——我認為他為董事會帶來了更廣闊的全球戰略視野。

Our next question will come from Gene Munster with Loup Ventures.

我們的下一個問題來自 Loup Ventures 的 Gene Munster。

Congratulations on the progress. Elon, you talked about full autonomy by the end of the year. I would love for you to walk through the rollout strategy of the Tesla Network app and how that's going to look prior to the robotaxi stage? Are you going to gradually take over human routes with autonomous capable routes over time? Or how do you see that playing out?

祝賀你的進展。埃隆，你提到了年底實現完全自動駕駛。我想請你介紹一下特斯拉網路應用程式的推出策略，以及在自動駕駛計程車階段之前，它會是什麼樣子？你們會逐步用自動駕駛路線取代人類駕駛路線嗎？或者你認為這將如何發展？

Well, it's pretty much going to play out as it has played out, which is we'll release more and more functionality. Before we release any functionality, it goes through extensive testing. And of course, we run it -- we have a simulations team that has, I think, a very good simulation of the real world. So we run any car changes through a battery test and simulation. Then we have a global QA team, which I'm on actually, I'm one of -- on the global QA team. And we test the releases in the real world, in the real-world map, [then if it fits] in the real world and the simulation, which is -- which are very many because the world is very complex anyway. And then we release it to a small group of private beta testers within the company; then to a larger beta audience, including people outside the company; then to Early Access Tesla owners; and then, finally, a broad release. And so there are many stages that these things go through. So by the time something is being -- going to a wide release into the U.S., it has gone through all of those stages. And the software that's at the very early stage is much more advanced than what people are seeing.

嗯，事情基本上會像過去一樣發展，我們會發布越來越多的功能。在發布任何功能之前，都會經過廣泛的測試。當然，我們會進行測試——我們有一個模擬團隊，我認為他們對現實世界有著非常好的模擬。所以我們會對任何車輛的改動進行電池測試和模擬。然後，我們還有一個全球品質保證團隊，實際上我就在其中，我是其中的一員。我們會在現實世界、現實世界地圖中測試新發布的功能，[然後看看它是否適合]在現實世界和模擬環境中進行測試——因為現實世界本身就非常複雜，所以測試環境會非常多。然後，我們會先將功能發佈給公司內部的一小群內部Beta測試人員；然後是更大的Beta測試受眾，包括公司外部的人員；然後是特斯拉Early Access車主；最後，進行廣泛發布。所以，這些事情要經歷很多階段。所以，當一部電影在美國大規模發行時，它已經經歷了所有這些階段。而且，處於早期階段的軟體比人們現在看到的要先進得多。

So it just got to go through a very rigorous safety process. So essentially, we need to figure out -- get very good at complex intersections, get very good at complex turns and intersections and things like busy malls, in a parking lot or office park or special events and sporting events, that kind of thing, when those eventually come back. Those are extra hard cases. But it's all tracking very well, if you like. The Autopilot's engineering team is -- we just have an extremely talented group, and I'm deeply involved with the team. So we talk every week and meet every week when we can because now physical meeting is difficult. So I have quite a deep understanding where we are and where we're heading. And I feel like we have a tremendous amount of momentum, and we'll have the functionality, that's the Full Self-Driving, by the end of the year.

所以它必須經過非常嚴格的安全流程。本質上，我們需要弄清楚——如何在複雜的路口、複雜的轉彎和交叉路口，以及像繁忙的購物中心、停車場、辦公園區、特殊活動和體育賽事之類的情況下表現得非常好，以及這些最終何時恢復。這些都是非常棘手的情況。但如果你願意的話，一切都進展順利。 Autopilot 的工程團隊－我們擁有一支非常有才華的團隊，而且我深入參與了團隊工作。所以我們每週都會交流，盡可能每週開會，因為現在線下會議很困難。所以我非常了解我們目前的狀況和未來發展方向。我覺得我們勢頭強勁，到今年年底，我們將實現完全自動駕駛。

Now after that functionality is released, there's still another step, which is to improve the reliability of it once it is released, kind of Full Self-Driving with the human -- supervised by the driver. And then we keep improving the reliability to a point where it no longer needs to be supervised by the driver. And we provide a vast body of data to regulators to show them that this is the case. And then presumably, the regulators, depending on which jurisdiction it is, would give approval for the autonomous cars that can drive with no humans onboard. Obviously, the regulatory approval process, that's difficult for us to predict with accuracy because it's out of our hands. But for the rest of it, I feel very good about where we are generally.

現在，在該功能發布之後，還有另一個步驟，那就是在發布後提高其可靠性，有點像在駕駛員監督下實現的完全自動駕駛。然後，我們會不斷提高可靠性，直到不再需要駕駛員監督。我們向監管機構提供了大量數據，以證明這一點。然後，監管機構（取決於其管轄範圍）可能會批准無人駕駛的自動駕駛汽車。顯然，監管審批流程我們很難準確預測，因為它不在我們的掌控之中。但對於其他方面，我對目前的整體情況感到非常滿意。

So to summarize, we want -- we're going to get owners full autonomy, some level of that by the end of the year and then a human in the loop, Tesla Network app sometime, is it first half of next year, would that be the hope?

總而言之，我們希望——在年底前讓車主擁有完全的自主權，達到一定程度，然後讓人類參與其中，特斯拉網路應用程式會在某個時候，是明年上半年，這是希望嗎？

Do you mean like when can the car drive with no person?

你的意思是什麼時候汽車可以在無人的情況下行駛？

With a person. Initially, a person who observes, would that be -- with the Tesla Network app, would that be early part of the year of 2021? Is that the hope?

和一個人一起。最初，一個觀察者會用特斯拉網路應用程式來觀察，那會是在2021年初嗎？這是希望嗎？

If described as a hope, I would say that that's probably a fair description.

如果將其描述為一種希望，我會說這可能是一個公平的描述。

Okay. And then kind of take it to its end stage, the robotaxi stage, any high-level thoughts? I understand the regulatory is a massive unknown, but if you're going to put a guess on it, where would we start -- when will we start seeing robotaxis?

好的。接下來是它的最終階段，也就是自動駕駛計程車階段，您有什麼宏觀想法嗎？我知道監管方面是一個巨大的未知數，但如果您要猜測一下，我們應該從哪裡開始呢？我們什麼時候才能看到自動駕駛計程車？

Well, I think it's quite likely, in my view -- again, I could be wrong, I'm -- as you see it, we're ahead in some areas, and we're behind in others because -- when I give a guess, I give the guess that I think is the likely midpoint, not the point with lots of margin. If it's a normal distribution, I'd give you the 50th percentile, not the 3 segment -- optimistic or pessimistic. So then that necessarily means at least half of my predictions will be wrong and half will be right. I think -- or it might be right but offset by a few weeks to a few months; in some cases, a few years. But I believe that everything I've ever said would come true, did come true. It may come true late, but it did come true. So punctuality is not my strong suit, but I always come through in the end. So I think we could see robotaxis in operation with the network fleet next year, not in all markets but in some.

嗯，在我看來，這很有可能——我可能錯了，正如你所見，我們在某些​​領域領先，而在其他領域落後，因為——當我做出猜測時，我會給出我認為可能的中間點，而不是有很大餘量的點。如果是常態分佈，我會給第50個百分位，而不是第3個百分位－樂觀或悲觀。所以，這必然意味著我的預測至少有一半會錯，一半會正確。我認為——或者它可能是正確的，但會錯開幾週到幾個月的時間；在某些情況下，甚至幾年。但我相信我所說的一切都會成真，而且確實成真了。它可能遲些實現，但確實成真了。所以準時不是我的強項，但我最終總是能做到。所以我認為明年我們可能會看到自動駕駛計程車與網路車隊一起投入運營，不是在所有市場，而是在一些市場。

Our last question will come from Pierre Ferragu with New Street.

我們的最後一個問題來自《新街》的皮耶費拉古 (Pierre Ferragu)。

One on gross margin, first, and your impressive performance in Q1. So there are 3 moving parts: the tailwind from credits, of course; the Model Y ramping, even if it broke even, it probably took average gross margin down; and of course, you had like Fremont being closed, shut down the last week of the quarter, it probably was the sort of an extra cost. And so when I looked at how gross margin evolved sequentially, excluding these 3 moving parts, I felt like your auto gross margin could have been up like a couple of points sequentially. So I wanted to check with you if that estimate would make sense. And then I will have a follow-up on energy storage.

首先，關於毛利率，以及你們在第一季的出色表現。所以有三個因素在起作用：當然，信貸帶來的順風；Model Y 的量產，即使實現了收支平衡，也可能會拉低平均毛利率；當然，你們的弗里蒙特工廠在本季度最後一周關閉了，這可能是一筆額外的成本。所以，當我觀察毛利率的環比變化，排除這三個因素後，我覺得你們的汽車毛利率可能會上升幾個點。所以我想跟你們確認一下這個估算是否合理。之後我會跟進一下儲能的情況。

Sequential market improvement -- margin improvement?

市場連續改善－利潤率提高？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. So the 3 things that you mentioned, I had a little bit of a hard time hearing the full question here because we're having a bit of network difficulty in the room. I'll do my best here. So when we look at margin, we do exclude credit, as you have, so I agree with that. Model Y ramping, bringing down overall gross margin, I agree with that as well. So it was lower than the overall average, and that will increase with time. And shutdown and efficiencies in both Shanghai and in Fremont also weighed on margin, and the Shanghai margin was below the average as well. Even though it's increasing quickly and approaching Model 3, it still is below the average.

是的。您提到的三件事，我有點難以聽清楚完整的問題，因為我們會議室的網路有點問題。我會盡力解答。所以，當我們計算利潤率時，我們會像您一樣排除信用額度，所以我同意這一點。 Model Y產量的增加拉低了整體毛利率，我也同意這一點。所以它低於整體平均水平，而且會隨著時間的推移而上升。上海和弗里蒙特工廠的停工和效率問題也對利潤率造成了壓力，上海工廠的利潤率也低於平均值。儘管它正在快速增長，並且接近Model 3的水平，但仍然低於平均水平。

And so I think the sentiment of your question was if you were to remove those factors, was there a sequential increase in gross margin. I haven't specifically calculated that, but I think your intuition is right. We saw strength in gross margin across the board, as I mentioned. And in particular, S and X gross margins continued to improve despite slightly lower volumes there and higher fixed cost amortization.

所以我認為你提問的意思是，如果你剔除這些因素，毛利率是否會較上季成長？我沒有具體計算過，但我認為你的直覺是對的。正如我之前提到的，我們看到整體毛利率都在成長。尤其是S和X部門，儘管銷售量略有下降，固定成本攤提增加，但毛利率仍持續改善。

So there's good progress happening, both from the ASP side and the cost reduction side, for our products and production. And I think this also lends itself to the power of the gross profit contribution to the company once we get through these ramp inefficiencies, we get Fremont up and running again, we increase capacity so we can spread out fixed costs and continue to execute on cost reductions on our products, we feel very optimistic about that path going forward.

因此，無論是從平均售價或成本削減角度來看，我們的產品和生產都取得了良好的進展。我認為這也有助於提升公司的毛利貢獻。一旦我們克服了產能提升的低效率問題，弗里蒙特工廠恢復運營，我們就能提高產能，從而分攤固定成本，並繼續降低產品成本。我們對未來的發展方向非常樂觀。

And I had a quick follow-up on energy storage, if you can hear me well. I think like -- I can't remember -- I think from the very first days I heard you on the call, you've always mentioned that demand for energy storage is always outstripping supply, and you have more orders than you can make. And so I'm kind of thinking there will be -- there should be an inflection point in that business at some point, and it's going to be driven by your ability to add much more manufacturing capacity like battery manufacturing capacity. And at a high level, how are you thinking about that inflection point in terms of time line?

如果您聽得清楚，我剛才快速跟進了一下關於儲能的問題。我想，我記不太清楚了，但從我第一天接電話開始，您就一直提到儲能市場的需求總是超過供應，而且您的訂單量也超過了生產能力。所以我覺得這個業務在某個時候應該會有一個轉折點，而這將取決於您能否大幅提升產能，例如電池產能。請問您從宏觀角度如何看待這個轉折點？

In terms of time line, I think what we've been doing with both our partners and internally is looking at how to reduce the -- fundamentally, the cost of investments in new cell capacity because when you look at a car -- a vehicle product, there's a lot of things in the vehicle besides the cells. When you look at an energy storage product, it's really just the cells. And so to really grow the energy storage business, it's all about cell investments. And so that's what we've been focused on. And I think not to give too much away, but that will be one of the things we address in Battery Investor Day, it's how we're focused on that. And when we have that in the place we want, it will be a lot easier to scale that business.

就時間表而言，我認為我們一直在與合作夥伴以及公司內部探討如何從根本上降低新電池產能的投資成本，因為對於汽車——一款汽車產品來說，除了電池之外，車內還有很多其他組件。而對於儲能產品來說，其實只有電池。因此，要真正發展儲能業務，關鍵在於對電池的投資。這正是我們一直以來的重點。我不想透露太多，但這將是我們在電池投資者日討論的議題之一，這就是我們關注的重點。當我們在目標領域有所建樹時，業務規模的擴大就會容易得多。

Thank you very much for all your great questions. Unfortunately, this is all the time we have today, and we'll speak to you again in 3 months' time. Thank you very much, and have a good day.

非常感謝大家提出的這些精彩問題。很遺憾，今天的時間有限，我們三個月後再聯絡。非常感謝，祝大家有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以掛斷電話了。