特斯拉 (TSLA) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Tesla's Q3 2019 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的耐心等待，歡迎收看特斯拉 2019 年第三季財務業績及問答網路直播。（操作人員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。（操作說明）

I would now like to hand the conference to over your speaker, Mr. Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我謹將會議交給你們的發言人，投資者關係高級總監馬丁·維查先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Sherrine. And good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Tesla's Third Quarter 2019 Q&A Webcast.

謝謝你，雪琳。大家下午好。歡迎參加特斯拉2019年第三季問答網路直播。

I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives. Our Q3 results were announced at about 2 p.m. Pacific Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

今天和我一起做客的有伊隆馬斯克、扎卡里柯克霍恩以及其他一些高階主管。我們的第三季業績於下午2點左右公佈。更新資料中顯示的是太平洋時間，該資料已發佈在與本次網路直播相同的連結中。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions)

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並發表前瞻性聲明。這些評論是基於我們截至目前為止的預測和預期。由於許多風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能與預期有重大差異，包括我們在最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的那些風險和不確定因素。（操作說明）

But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

但在進入問答環節之前，伊隆先有一些開場白。埃隆？

Thank you. First of all, I'd like to just thank the Tesla team for an incredible job this quarter. The execution was outstanding and on just about every front. So it's just an honor to work with such a great team.

謝謝。首先，我要感謝特斯拉團隊在本季所做的出色工作。執行得非常出色，幾乎各方面都無可挑剔。能與如此優秀的團隊共事，我深感榮幸。

Q4 -- Q3 was obviously a very strong quarter. And we had record deliveries. We're able to make great strides in controlling our costs. We shifted back to GAAP profitability while also generating strong free cash flow. And again, this would not be possible without each employee doing their part to reduce cost. Our operating cost is now at the lowest level since Model 3 production started.

第四季——顯然第三季表現非常強勁。我們的出貨量也創下了紀錄。我們在控製成本方面取得了長足進步。我們恢復了GAAP獲利能力，同時也產生了強勁的自由現金流。再次強調，如果沒有每位員工為降低成本盡一份心力，這一切都不可能實現。我們的營運成本目前處於Model 3投產以來的最低水準。

Regarding Gigafactory Shanghai, this month, we started trial production at Giga Shanghai in both vehicles from body to paint to general assembly. So this is a -- I want to emphasize, this is a real factory with a tremendous amount of equipment in it. While a lot of people see the outside shell of the factory, which is enormous and it was essentially underwater in January, it was just below the water table literally, what is, I think, much more significant is that we're able to install massive stamping machines, a fully operational paint shop and a sophisticated general assembly line in the same period of time in parallel with building the building.

關於上海超級工廠，本月我們已在上海超級工廠啟動了從車身、噴漆到總裝的整車試生產。所以，我想強調的是，這是一個真正的工廠，裡面有大量的設備。雖然很多人看到的是工廠的外殼，它非常巨大，而且在一月份的時候基本上還被淹沒在水下，實際上就在地下水位以下，但我認為更重要的是，我們能夠在建造廠房的同時，在同一時期內安裝大型沖壓機、一個完全運轉的噴漆車間和一條複雜的總裝配線。

I'd like to thank our entire team for this extraordinary achievement. I'm not aware of any factory of this magnitude in history being constructed in such a short period of time, approximately 10 months. As far as I know, this is unprecedented. And Gigafactory Shanghai will become a template for future growth. We're planning to build Model Ys in Shanghai as well, of course, and build a Gigafactory in Europe. And we hope to announce the location of that Gigafactory -- in fact, we will announce the location of that Gigafactory before the end of this year.

我要感謝我們整個團隊所取得的這項非凡成就。據我所知，歷史上還沒有一家工廠能在如此短的時間內建成，大約只有 10 個月。據我所知，這種情況前所未有。上海超級工廠將成為未來發展的模板。當然，我們也計劃在上海生產 Model Y，並在歐洲建造一座超級工廠。我們希望能夠公佈這座超級工廠的選址——事實上，我們將在今年年底前公佈這座超級工廠的選址。

Regarding Model Y, we're also ahead of schedule on Model Y preparations in Fremont. And we've moved the launch time line from fall 2020 to summer 2020. There may be some room for improvement there, but we're confident about summer 2020.

關於Model Y，我們在弗里蒙特的Model Y準備工作也提前完成了。我們將發佈時間從 2020 年秋季推遲到 2020 年夏季。或許還有一些改進的空間，但我們對 2020 年夏季充滿信心。

I've actually recently driven the Model Y Release Candidate, and I think it's going to an amazing product and be very well received. I think it's quite likely to -- it's just my opinion, but I think it will outsell S, X and 3 combined.

我最近試駕了Model Y的量產候選車型，我認為它將會是一款非常棒的產品，並且會受到大家的歡迎。我覺得很有可能——這只是我的個人意見——但我認為它的銷售量會超過 S、X 和 3 的總和。

Regarding Version 10 and Smart Summon, last month, we released our latest software, Version 10, which includes video streaming, games, karaoke, Spotify and a host of other new features and improvements. Most importantly, it includes the first version of Smart Summon, which has now been used 1 million times. So it's now over 1 million users of Smart Summon. And we're -- in the next week or so, we will be releasing an improved version of Smart Summon, taking into account all the data from those 1 million Smart Summon attempts.

關於版本 10 和智慧召喚，上個月我們發布了最新軟體版本 10，其中包括視訊串流、遊戲、卡拉 OK、Spotify 和許多其他新功能和改進。最重要的是，它包含了智慧召喚功能的第一個版本，目前已被使用 100 萬次。現在智慧召喚功能的用戶已經超過100萬了。接下來的一周左右，我們將發布改進版的智慧召喚功能，其中將考慮這 100 萬次智慧召喚嘗試的所有數據。

So this really illustrates the value of having a massive fleet because it allows us to collect these corner cases and learn from them and use fleet learning and become rapidly better, just as Navigate on Autopilot did on the freeway. So expect a number of improvements in Smart Summon in the weeks to come. And this really is just the beginning as we collect more data and Autopilot and Full Self-Driving functionality gets better.

這充分說明了擁有龐大車隊的價值，因為它使我們能夠收集這些特殊案例，從中學習，利用車隊學習，並迅速變得更好，就像自動駕駛導航在高速公路上所做的那樣。因此，預計未來幾週智慧召喚功能將迎來一系列改進。而這只是個開始，隨著我們收集更多數據，自動駕駛和完全自動駕駛功能也會不斷改進。

I do -- while it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access release of a feature-complete Full Self-Driving future this year. So it's not for sure, but it appears to be on track for at least the early access release of a fully functional Full Self-Driving by the end of this year.

我確實認為——雖然時間會很緊張，但今年我們至少有望體驗到功能齊全的完全自動駕駛未來，而且還是有限的早期版本。所以雖然還不能確定，但看起來至少在今年年底前推出功能齊全的完全自動駕駛功能的早期體驗版是很有可能的。

And yes, lastly, we're highly focused on decisions that really make a material difference to the company such as opening Gigafactories in other continents. Yes, it's worth noting that these -- ultimately, having 3 Gigafactories, effectively, we'll actually triple our output. And then when you consider increased output per Gigafactory, it's going to actually more than triple our output over time.

最後，我們高度重視那些真正對公司產生實質影響的決策，例如在其他大洲開設超級工廠。是的，值得注意的是，最終，擁有 3 座超級工廠，實際上將使我們的產量增加兩倍。考慮到每個超級工廠產量的增加，隨著時間的推移，我們的產量實際上將增加兩倍以上。

And then there are a lot of interesting things happening with respect to advanced batteries and more efficient powertrains and Full Self-Driving, all that sort of stuff. But that will be something for a future time.

此外，在先進電池、更有效率的動力系統和完全自動駕駛等領域，也發生了很多有趣的事情。但那是以後的事了。

And then one last item is that tomorrow afternoon, we will be releasing version 3 of the Tesla Solar Roof. That's the integrated solar -- with solar panels integrated with the roof. So that's -- I think this is a great product. Version 1 and 2, we're still sort of figuring things out. Version 3, I think, is finally ready for the big time. And so we're scaling up production of the version 3 solar tower roof at our Buffalo Gigafactory. And I think this product is going to be incredible. But we'll talk more about that on the official product launch, which will be tomorrow afternoon.

最後還有一件事，明天下午我們將發布特斯拉太陽能屋頂的第三版。這是一體化太陽能係統——太陽能電池板整合在屋頂上。所以，我認為這是一款很棒的產品。版本 1 和版本 2，我們還在摸索階段。我認為，第三版終於準備好迎接正式發布了。因此，我們正在布法羅超級工廠擴大第三代太陽能塔頂的生產規模。我認為這款產品將會非常棒。但我們會在明天下午的正式產品發表會上詳細討論這個問題。

Thank you very much. And I think Zachary has some remarks as well.

非常感謝。我認為扎卡里也有一些話要說。

Yes. Thank you, Elon. Thank you, Martin. Q3 was a great quarter for Tesla. I know many employees are listening right now, and I want to thank you for your passion and your hard work. We've made terrific progress, and yet again, we realized margin improvement in nearly every aspect of the business.

是的。謝謝你，埃隆。謝謝你，馬丁。第三季對特斯拉來說是個非常棒的季度。我知道現在有很多員工正在收聽，我想感謝你們的熱情和辛勤工作。我們取得了巨大的進步，而且在業務的幾乎每個方面，我們都再次實現了利潤率的提高。

There are 3 key points I'd like to highlight. First, we returned to profitability in Q3, aided by improved gross profit, reduced operating expenses in the absence of negative onetime items that weighed on our financials in the first half of the year. GAAP automotive gross margin improved sequentially to 22.8% and over 20% excluding regulatory credits.

我想重點強調以下三點。首先，在第三季度，我們恢復了盈利，這得益於毛利的提高和營運費用的降低，同時沒有出現上半年拖累我們財務狀況的負面一次性項目。GAAP汽車毛利率較上月提高至22.8%，若不計入監管稅收抵免，則超過20%。

We achieved these improvements through higher production volumes on S/X and Model 3, enabling better fixed cost absorption. We realized improvements in labor hours per vehicle as well as other costs such as warehousing, logistics, delivery and import-related items. We're also making continued progress reducing material costs, including commercial negotiations with suppliers.

我們透過提高 S/X 和 Model 3 的產量實現了這些改進，從而更好地吸收了固定成本。我們在每輛車的工時以及其他成本（如倉儲、物流、配送和進口相關項目）方面都實現了改進。我們也不斷努力降低材料成本，包括與供應商進行商業談判。

Model S and X ASPs increased even accounting for revenue deferrals related to free unlimited supercharging. And Model 3 ASPs declined slightly driven by mix in Asia, pricing action in EMEA. North American ASPs held flat as mix improved, offsetting pricing action we took at the start of the quarter, which is great to see.

即使考慮到與免費無限超級充電相關的收入遞延，Model S 和 X 的平均售價也有所上漲。受亞洲市場組合和歐洲、中東及非洲地區定價策略的影響，Model 3 的平均售價略有下降。由於產品組合改善，北美平均售價保持平穩，抵消了我們在本季初採取的價格措施，這令人欣喜。

Note that with the release of Smart Summon in the U.S., we were able to recognize $30 million of deferred revenue. As we expand Smart Summon to additional markets and release new features, we'll continue to recognize additional deferred revenue.

請注意，隨著智慧召喚功能在美國的推出，我們得以確認 3,000 萬美元的遞延收入。隨著我們將智慧召喚服務擴展到更多市場並發布新功能，我們將繼續確認額外的遞延收入。

Our services and other loss reduced yet again, reflecting our focus to improve the efficiency of this area of the business. And we further reduced operating expenses despite increased orders, deliveries and new programs in development.

我們的服務和其他損失再次減少，這反映了我們致力於提高該業務領域效率的決心。儘管訂單量、交貨量和新項目的開發量都在增加，但我們仍然進一步降低了營運費用。

And finally, on net income -- in other income, we saw benefits from foreign exchange which, as I mentioned last quarter, we don't hedge.

最後，關於淨收入——在其他收入方面，我們看到了外匯收益，正如我上個季度提到的，我們沒有進行外匯對沖。

The second key point I want to highlight is that we demonstrated another quarter of strong free cash flows despite a significant increase in our captive leasing mix and a sequential increase in CapEx spend. This has enabled year-to-date positive free cash flows for the company. Our cash balance increased by approximately the same amount as our free cash flows, and we exited the quarter with our highest quarter ending cash balance ever of just over $5.3 billion.

我想強調的第二個關鍵點是，儘管我們的自用租賃組合大幅增加，資本支出也環比增長，但我們仍然實現了另一個季度強勁的自由現金流。這使得該公司今年迄今實現了正的自由現金流。我們的現金餘額增加的金額與自由現金流的增加金額大致相同，本季末我們的現金餘額創歷史新高，略高於 53 億美元。

Specifically, on captive leases, we received a number of questions on how these are funded. We use our leasing warehouse and ABS sales to allow for captive leases without material use of cash. What's important to note here is that our warehouse and ABS flow through financing cash flow and, as a result, leases negatively impact free cash flow. This impact was material in Q3 as the lease rate increased substantially by 50%.

具體來說，關於專屬租賃，我們收到了許多關於這些租賃如何獲得資金的問題。我們利用租賃倉庫和ABS銷售來實現無需大量現金投入的專屬租賃。需要注意的是，我們的倉庫和資產支持證券 (ABS) 的現金流量是透過融資實現的，因此，租賃會對自由現金流產生負面影響。第三季度，這一影響尤為顯著，因為租賃費率大幅上漲了 50%。

In addition, CapEx spend increased driven primarily by Gigafactory Shanghai and Model Y spending. We received a number of questions on why our capital spending appears low compared to prior levels even though there are multiple new projects launching and in development. As we noted in the shareholder letter this quarter and last quarter, this is because we've made great progress on improving our capital efficiency.

此外，資本支出增加主要受上海超級工廠和Model Y專案支出的推動。我們收到許多問題，詢問為什麼儘管有多個新項目正在啟動和開發中，但我們的資本支出與以往相比似乎較低。正如我們在本季和上個季度的股東信中所指出的，這是因為我們在提高資本效率方面取得了巨大進展。

My third and final point is around demand and growth. Our global order rate remains strong and continues to increase. Despite increases to production levels, our order backlog has been growing. And quarter-to-date orders are significantly higher than at this point in last quarter.

我的第三點也是最後一點是關於需求和成長。我們的全球訂單量依然強勁，並持續成長。儘管產量有所提高，但我們的訂單積壓卻不斷增加。本季迄今的訂單量明顯高於上季同期水準。

In the immediate term, we're focused on increasing production of Model 3 and Model S and X as quickly as we can. The bulk of this work involves continued optimization of existing equipment. We've also made targeted adjustments to pricing to better balance supply and demand. Our pace of execution on these factories and capacity expansion has increased significantly. As Elon mentioned, the first phase of Gigafactory Shanghai is already production-ready, and we've been able to pull in the time line for other major projects.

眼下，我們的重點是盡快提高 Model 3、Model S 和 Model X 的產量。這項工作的大部分內容涉及對現有設備的持續優化。我們也針對價格進行了有針對性的調整，以更好地平衡供需關係。我們這些工廠的建設和產能擴張的執行速度已經顯著加快。正如伊隆所提到的，上海超級工廠第一期工程已經可以投產，我們已經能夠加快其他重大計畫的進度。

Overall, we are quickly turning the corner for our next phase of growth, and our financial health continues to strengthen. We remain focused on reducing cost, which enables rapid investments in future programs and growth.

整體而言，我們正迅速進入下一階段的成長期，財務狀況也持續改善。我們將繼續專注於降低成本，從而能夠快速投資於未來的專案和發展。

Thank you very much, and I think also, our Senior Director of Energy Operations, Kunal Girotra, wanted to add some remarks.

非常感謝，我認為我們的能源營運高級總監庫納爾·吉羅特拉也想補充幾點。

Hi, everyone. My name is Kunal Girotra, and I've been with Tesla for about 4 years, working on different aspects of deploying our energy products. I now run Tesla Energy's deployment and fulfillment teams.

大家好。我叫庫納爾·吉羅特拉，在特斯拉工作了大約 4 年，從事我們能源產品部署的不同方面的工作。我現在負責特斯拉能源的部署和交付團隊。

Over the last 3 months, the energy teams have made great progress in both our solar and energy storage businesses. As you can see in our quarterly deck, our solar deployments rose by almost 50% over the last quarter. And our energy storage deployment, which includes Powerwalls and Powerpacks, grew by 15% to an all-time high of 477 megawatt hours.

過去三個月，我們的能源團隊在太陽能和儲能業務方面都取得了巨大進展。正如您在我們的季度報告中所看到的，我們的太陽能部署量在上個季度增加了近 50%。我們的儲能部署（包括 Powerwall 和 Powerpack）成長了 15%，達到歷史新高 477 兆瓦時。

In the last 3 months, we relaunched Tesla solar in North America by simplifying our solar offering into 3 sizes of small, medium and large. We're transferring pricing on the website.

在過去的 3 個月裡，我們將太陽能產品簡化為小型、中型和大型三種尺寸，在北美重新推出了特斯拉太陽能產品。我們正在將網站上的價格資訊轉移過來。

Actually, if I may interject a minute, but what a lot of people don't realize is in -- like in California and in a number of other states, if you buy our sort of solar subscription or solar rental, there's no money down and you instantly save on your utility bill and there's no long-term contract. So it's kind of a no-brainer. It's really do you want something that prints money? And if it doesn't print money, we'll fix it or take it back. It's kind of a no-brainer. And it sort of plays into Tesla's overarching strategy here, which is effectively to become like a giant distributed global utility on the energy front.

實際上，如果我可以插一句，很多人沒有意識到的是——比如在加利福尼亞州和其他一些州，如果你購買我們這種太陽能訂閱或太陽能租賃服務，無需首付，你就可以立即節省電費，而且沒有長期合約。所以根本無需考慮。其實，你真的想要一個能印鈔票的東西嗎？如果它不能印鈔票，我們會修復它或撤回它。這還用說嗎。這與特斯拉的整體策略不謀而合，特斯拉的目標是成為能源領域的巨型分散式全球公用事業公司。

Yes, absolutely. The subscription solar offering that you mentioned was launched in 6 states. And like you said, it's fixed monthly payments and no long-term contracts. And the response from customers have been pretty awesome.

是的，絕對的。您提到的訂閱式太陽能服務已在 6 個州推出。正如你所說，它是固定月供，沒有長期合約。顧客的反應非常棒。

Most people do actually buy it as opposed to rent it, which is actually technically the better -- while you make money is immediately if you're rental, it's actually a better investment if you buy it because the cost of capital of the consumer is better than our cost of capital.

大多數人實際上都會選擇購買而不是租賃，從技術上講，購買其實更好——雖然租賃可以立即賺錢，但購買實際上是一項更好的投資，因為消費者的資金成本比我們的資金成本更低。

And then there was like an interesting study by Zillow and a number of other organizations that show that adding solar to your home increases the price of -- increases the value of your home. And the Zillow study showed a 4% increase in the value of the home with solar. And then if you add sort of the Powerwall, which gives you blackout protection, so you will have energy security in an event of rolling blackouts or if the power goes up for any reason, which appears to be a long-term systemic issue in California particularly, that I think this definitely can be viewed as a significant asset for any home.

然後，Zillow 和其他一些機構進行了一項有趣的研究，結果表明，在家中安裝太陽能係統會增加房屋的價格——增加房屋的價值。Zillow 的一項研究顯示，安裝太陽能係統的房屋價值提高了 4%。然後，如果你再添置一個 Powerwall，它能提供斷電保護，這樣即使發生輪流停電或因任何原因停電，你也能獲得能源保障。這在加州似乎是一個長期存在的系統性問題，我認為這絕對可以被視為任何家庭的重要資產。

Totally, yes. Yes, I think to your point of buying Tesla solar is easy because we have one of the lowest prices in the nation now -- in the country. And just a little bit of a story there, we were able to lower our prices because our cost of acquisition is now less than 1/4 of any typical solar company.

完全正確。是的，我認為你說的沒錯，購買特斯拉太陽能產品很容易，因為我們現在的價格是全國最低的價格之一。這裡還有一點小故事：我們能夠降低價格，是因為我們的購買成本現在不到任何普通太陽能公司的四分之一。

We don't do sales.

我們不做銷售。

Yes. These are online sales, online orders.

是的。這些都是線上銷售、線上訂單。

There's no advertising, no marketing and no sales force. But would you rather pay for power or for marketing? Yes. I'd say you'd rather pay for the product.

沒有廣告，沒有行銷，也沒有銷售團隊。但你比較願意為電力付費還是為行銷付費？是的。我覺得你最好還是付費購買產品。

Totally, yes, yes. All right, that's great. On solar, we want to simplify the fulfillment process with a goal of really fast order-to-install time lines. We've done many residential installs with a single visit to a customer's home because the standard sizes are reduced complexity. We've also been working with cities and counties to submit generic permits that follow a template rather than customizing for every situation because...

完全正確，沒錯。好的，太好了。在太陽能領域，我們希望簡化交付流程，目標是實現從下單到安裝的快速反應。由於標準尺寸降低了安裝的複雜性，我們只需一次上門服務即可完成許多住宅安裝。我們也與各市縣合作，提交遵循通用模板的許可證，而不是針對每種情況進行定制，因為…

Yes. Actually, Kunal, this is a really big deal. That's like the ones people won't appreciate. It's great work by you and the energy team to get those signed because one of the inhibitors, both from a cost and timing standpoint, is getting permit approval from the various regional authorities of -- and we've pioneered a novel approach. It's sort of an innovation applied to bureaucracy, frankly, which -- interfacing your client innovation to try anything. And every button -- a massive number of housing approval authorities to take a generic template as opposed to a custom template, which makes it (inaudible) and in most cases, I think electronic as well. So that just makes it simple and low cost and fast to get approval for solar, which is how it should be.

是的。庫納爾，這其實是一件大事。就像那些人們不會欣賞的東西。你和能源團隊為促成這些協議的簽署做出了巨大貢獻，因為從成本和時間角度來看，其中一個阻礙因素是獲得各個地區當局的許可批准——而我們開創了一種新穎的方法。坦白說，這算是對官僚機構的一種創新，即——將你的客戶創新與嘗試任何事情結合。而且每個按鈕——大量的住房審批機構都採用通用模板而不是自訂模板，這使得它（聽不清楚）而且在大多數情況下，我認為也是電子化的。這樣一來，安裝太陽能發電系統就變得簡單、成本低、審核快捷，這才是應有的樣子。

Totally. Yes, around 350 cities and counties have accepted it. There is still about...

完全。是的，大約有350個城市和縣已經接受了它。還有大約…

And more coming.

更多精彩內容即將推出。

Many more coming.

敬請期待更多精彩內容。

Yes. I think ultimately, it will be almost everyone.

是的。我認為最終幾乎所有人都會受到影響。

Yes, yes. We have a lot more small cities and counties that have to come online, but that will be our focus in the coming days. And it's more important as we scale Solar Roof 2 for all our -- deploying energy products needs innovation and in the bureaucracy space, as you said as well.

是的，是的。我們還有很多小城市和縣需要接入網絡，但這將是我們未來幾天的重點。而且，隨著我們擴大 Solar Roof 2 的規模，這一點變得更加重要——正如您所說，能源產品的部署需要在官僚領域進行創新。

Yes. I mean, yes.

是的。我的意思是，是的。

Yes. So all these improvements have led us to speed up our customer order-to-installation time lines from months to, in many cases, days. As, Elon, you already said, we've added the option to add Powerwalls to secure people from future power outages. And a home with solar and Powerwall, as was shown in the recent California outages, many homes ran successfully.

是的。因此，所有這些改進都使我們從客戶下單到安裝的時間從幾個月縮短到許多情況下幾天。正如伊隆你剛才所說，我們增加了安裝 Powerwall 的選項，以確保人們免受未來停電的影響。而從最近加州停電事件來看，許多安裝了太陽能和 Powerwall 的家庭都成功運作了。

Yes. You can tell which homes have Powerwall because that's where all the light -- that's where the lights are on. Yes, if you look at the neighborhood, it's like oh, there's -- everywhere but a few lights around and those are usually the ones with the Tesla Powerwall. I think -- I don't -- I'm not sure if you're going to mention, but also like the single truck roll. It's like…

是的。你可以透過觀察那些裝有 Powerwall 的房屋來判斷它們是否都裝有 Powerwall，因為那些房屋的燈都亮著。是的，如果你看看周圍的環境，你會發現到處都是——除了少數幾盞燈之外，其他地方都是特斯拉 Powerwall。我想——我不確定——我不確定你會不會提到，但也喜歡單車出動。就像…

Single site visit, yes. Single-visit install.

單次現場考察，可以。單次安裝。

Yes. Single-visit install is a big deal. We're taking it from where the solar industry would often be 3 visits before the solar was installed and would often take quite a long time to do the installation. But we streamlined all of that to a point where, in many cases, it's a single visit to do everything, and it's fast. So it's like minimize disruptions to the homeowner. And ordering solar is literally 1 click. You can order solar for your house in less than 1 minute. So...

是的。一次性安裝意義重大。我們現在的情況是，太陽能產業通常需要三次上門才能安裝太陽能設備，而且安裝過程往往需要很長時間。但我們已經簡化了所有這些流程，在許多情況下，只需一次就診即可完成所有事情，而且速度很快。這樣就能最大限度地減少對屋主的干擾。訂購太陽能產品只需點擊一下即可。您只需不到 1 分鐘即可訂購家用太陽能係統。所以...

Yes. And then we've done the same thing in the commercial solar space. Nobody thought of putting a simple website with order -- with prices for commercial solar. We do that now. And we've seen a good response from small businesses wanting to go solar. And by removing the complexity of long-term contracts and simplifying the terms and conditions, the commercial solar sales process would typically take 6 months is now taking a couple of weeks. So the same thing that we've done in residential, we want to expand more and more in commercial as well.

是的。然後，我們在商業太陽能領域也做了同樣的事情。沒有人想到要建立一個簡單的網站來訂購——並提供者用太陽能的價格資訊。我們現在就這麼做。我們看到，希望採用太陽能的小型企業反應良好。透過消除長期合約的複雜性並簡化條款和條件，原本需要 6 個月的商業太陽能銷售流程現在只需幾週即可完成。所以，就像我們在住宅領域所做的那樣，我們也希望在商業領域中不斷擴張。

So all in all, the road map for energy products from solar, Solar Roof, Powerwall to Megapack is super exciting. And I expect Tesla Energy to become a larger part of our overall ecosystem as we leverage and integrate the same competencies from our vehicle business. The future is pretty exciting for Tesla Energy.

總而言之，從太陽能、太陽能屋頂、Powerwall 到 Megapack，能源產品的路線圖令人無比興奮。我預計，隨著我們利用和整合來自汽車業務的相同能力，特斯拉能源將成為我們整體生態系統中更重要的一部分。特斯拉能源的未來非常令人振奮。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks again.

再次感謝。

Thank you very much. So first, we're going to take some questions from say.com. We will, this time, take questions from both institutional investors as well as retail investors.

非常感謝。首先，我們將回答來自 say.com 的一些問題。這次，我們將同時接受機構投資人和散戶的提問。

So the first question from institutional investors is, what are the opportunities for Tesla to create demand? Is word-of-mouth still sufficient? Or should we expect to see Tesla commence advertising in the near future?

因此，機構投資人提出的第一個問題是，特斯拉有哪些機會創造需求？口碑傳播仍然足夠嗎？或者我們可以期待在不久的將來看到特斯拉開始投放廣告？

Yes. What we're seeing is that word-of-mouth is more than enough to drive our demand in excess of production. We have no plans to advertise at this time. Obviously, at some point in the future, we may do advertising, not in the traditional sense but more to just inform people and make sure that they are aware of the product, but not engage in the typical trickery that is commonplace in advertising.

是的。我們看到的情況是，口碑傳播足以推動我們的需求超過生產能力。我們目前沒有投放廣告的計劃。顯然，在未來的某個時候，我們可能會做廣告，但不是以傳統意義上的廣告，而是為了告知人們產品訊息，確保他們了解產品，但不會像廣告中常見的那樣使用欺騙手段。

Okay. The next question from institutional investors. Elon, other than robotaxis and autonomous vehicle capabilities, when you look over the next 3 years, what are you most excited about at Tesla that you believe investors don't understand or have missed?

好的。接下來是機構投資人提出的問題。伊隆，除了無人駕駛計程車和自動駕駛汽車技術之外，展望未來三年，你認為特斯拉有哪些方面最讓你感到興奮，而你認為投資者沒有理解或錯過了這些方面？

I think there's generally a lack of understanding or appreciation for the growth of Tesla Energy, as Kunal was talking about. In the long term, I expect Tesla Energy to be of the same -- roughly the same size as Tesla's automotive sector or business.

正如庫納爾所說，我認為人們普遍缺乏對特斯拉能源公司發展歷程的了解或認識。從長遠來看，我預計特斯拉能源的規模將與特斯拉的汽車部門或業務大致相同。

This is the most underappreciated. I think it could be bigger, but it's certainly of a similar magnitude, Tesla solar, meaning Tesla solar plus battery stuff is -- to Tesla Energy is, I think, the least appreciated element. And part of it is like for -- I don't know, for about 18 months, almost 2 years, we had to divert a tremendous amount of resources -- well, we had to basically take resources from everywhere else in the company and apply them to the Model 3 production, fixing the Model 3 production ramp and simplifying the design of Model 3.

這是最被低估的一點。我認為它還可以更大，但規模肯定差不多，特斯拉太陽能，也就是特斯拉太陽能加上電池之類的東西——我認為，對特斯拉能源來說，是最不被重視的部分。其中一部分原因是，大約 18 個月，在將近 2 年的時間裡，我們必須轉移大量的資源——我們基本上必須從公司其他所有地方抽調資源，並將它們應用於 Model 3 的生產，解決 Model 3 的生產爬坡問題，並簡化 Model 3 的設計。

So for about 1.5 years, we unfortunately stripped Tesla Energy of engineering and other resources and even took the cell production lines that were meant for Powerwall and Powerpack and redirected them to the car because we didn't have enough cells. Now that we feel that Model 3 production is in a good place and headed to a great place, we've restored resources to Tesla solar and storage. And so that's going to be, I think, the really crazy growth for as far as future as I can imagine.

因此，在大約 1.5 年的時間裡，我們很不幸地剝奪了特斯拉能源公司的工程和其他資源，甚至將原本用於 Powerwall 和 Powerpack 的電池生產線轉移到了汽車上，因為我們沒有足夠的電池。現在我們認為 Model 3 的生產狀況良好，並且正朝著更好的方向發展，因此我們已經恢復了對特斯拉太陽能和儲能的投入。所以我認為，在可預見的未來，這將會是真正瘋狂的成長。

But we had to do it because if we didn't solve Model 3, Tesla wouldn't survive. So unfortunately, that shorted pretty much the other parts of the company. But it would be difficult for me to overstate the degree to which I think Tesla Energy is going to be a major part of Tesla's activity in the future.

但我們必須這麼做，因為如果我們解決不了 Model 3 的問題，特斯拉就無法生存下去。所以很不幸，這幾乎也導致公司其他部門的股票全部虧損。但我認為，特斯拉能源在未來將成為特斯拉業務的重要組成部分，這一點怎麼強調都不為過。

And, I mean, Tesla's mission from the beginning has been to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy. That means sustainable energy generation and sustainable energy consumption in the form of vehicles, electric vehicles. And I think one of the stats we'll publish in the future along with our vehicle production is that how much sustainable energy Tesla produced or Tesla customers produced with our products. And I think you'll see that we're producing about the same or comparable amounts of sustainable energy as are consumed in the car -- in our cars. Because for the longest time, the rebuttal against electric cars are like oh, don't they use dirty power from coal? Well, no, we're solar-powered. And that's -- obviously, there are solar power companies, not just Tesla. But you have to sell sustainable generation and sustainable consumption, and that's what we're doing, and we'll do more of it.

我的意思是，特斯拉從一開始的使命就是加速永續能源的到來。這意味著以車輛（電動車）的形式實現永續能源生產和永續能源消費。我認為，未來我們將公佈的統計數據之一，就是特斯拉或特斯拉客戶使用我們的產品生產了多少永續能源，以及我們的車輛產量數據。我認為你會發現，我們生產的可持續能源與汽車消耗的能源大致相同或相當。因為長期以來，人們對電動車的反駁是這樣的：哦，它們不是使用煤炭產生的骯髒能源嗎？不，我們用的是太陽能。顯然，除了特斯拉之外，還有其他太陽能公司。但你必須推廣永續發電和永續消費，而這正是我們正在做的，而且我們會做得更多。

Okay. Thank you. The next question from investor is related to Full Self-Driving attach rates. Given that self-driving regulations will evolve unevenly in different markets, would you consider selling modules individually, for example, Navigating on Autopilot or Summon versus current strategy of selling the package as a whole in order to encourage adoption and getting more data?

好的。謝謝。投資者提出的下一個問題與完全自動駕駛的接取率有關。鑑於自動駕駛法規在不同市場的發展並不均衡，您是否會考慮單獨銷售模組，例如自動駕駛導航或召喚功能，而不是像現在這樣將整個軟體包作為一個整體進行銷售，以鼓勵採用並獲取更多數據？

I think we'll continue to sell it in a bundled fashion. I mean, any Tesla that you buy already has basic Autopilot included. So I think that really is a pretty major advantage relative to other cars. And then the next step will be Full Self-Driving with Smart Summon being kind of the beginning of that.

我認為我們會繼續以捆綁銷售的方式進行銷售。我的意思是，你買的任何一輛特斯拉都已經包含了基本的自動駕駛功能。所以我認為這相對於其他汽車來說確實是一個相當大的優勢。下一步將是完全自動駕駛，而智慧召喚功能可以說是實現完全自動駕駛的開端。

And obviously, we kind of have the 2 sides of it with highway Autopilot and we've got the Summon, which is sort of low speed and talking less, that kind of thing. Now we need to -- we're working on solving that intermediate portion, which is traffic lights and stop signs and navigating through windy roads and -- windy, narrow roads and suburban neighborhoods. That's the focus right now. And you're going to want it all, right? I think it's -- yes, it's something that everyone's going to want, for sure.

顯然，我們有高速公路自動駕駛和召喚功能這兩個方面，召喚功能速度較慢，語音提示也較少，諸如此類。現在我們需要——我們正在努力解決中間部分，也就是交通號誌和停車標誌，以及在蜿蜒曲折的道路和——狹窄蜿蜒的道路和郊區社區中行駛。這就是我們目前關注的重點。你想要全部，對吧？我覺得——是的，這絕對是每個人都想要的東西。

And as I said before, the point at which we're able to upload the software enabling a Tesla to become a robotaxi, expect to have that from a functionality standpoint by the end of next year. But in terms of the functionality -- so basic functionality is aspirationally end of this year, but reliable enough that you do not need to pay attention, in our opinion, by the end of next year. And we would need -- the acceptance by regulatory authorities will vary by jurisdiction. That transition, that sort of flipping of the switch from a car that is from not robotaxi to robotaxi, I think will probably be the biggest step-change increase in asset value in history by far.

正如我之前所說，我們能夠上傳軟體使特斯拉成為無人駕駛計程車的時機，預計在明年年底前就能實現。但就功能而言——基本功能我們希望在今年年底實現，但到明年年底，其可靠性足以讓您無需再為此操心，我們認為。而且我們需要－監管機構的接受程度會因司法管轄區而異。我認為，這種轉變，這種從非自動駕駛計程車到自動駕駛計程車的轉變，很可能是史上資產價值成長幅度最大的一次。

Okay. Thank you. The next question is with respect to Model Y, what is your latest expectations for launch timing? Do you anticipate any Model 3 production downtime at Fremont during the launch? And how should Model Y gross margin percent look compared to Model 3 gross margin?

好的。謝謝。下一個問題是關於Model Y，您對發佈時間的最新預期是什麼？您預計在發布期間，弗里蒙特工廠的 Model 3 生產會出現停工嗎？Model Y 的毛利率與 Model 3 的毛利率相比應該如何變化？

Well, we've talked about the launch timing. What really matters is the timing to volume production, where volume production is some number in excess of 1,000 units per week. And we're confident of reaching that point no later than the middle of 2020.

我們已經討論過發佈時間了。真正重要的是大量生產的時機，大量生產是指每週產量超過 1000 件。我們有信心最遲在 2020 年中達到這個目標。

The -- yes, so from an interference standpoint, we do not expect it to interfere. Yes. The body line is separate. The paint line is. So basically, we do not expect it to interfere with Model 3. We do not expect any downtime. From a margin standpoint, Zach, do you want to...

是的，從幹擾的角度來看，我們預期它不會造成乾擾。是的。主體線條是分開的。油漆線是。所以基本上，我們預計它不會對Model 3造成影響，也不會造成任何停機時間。從利潤率的角度來看，扎克，你希望…

Yes. From a margin perspective, we're expecting ASPs for Model Y to be slightly higher than they are for Model 3. And this is common in the industry between sedans and CUVs. The part that we've worked very hard on is controlling the cost of Model Y. And our steady-state forecast for that program puts the cost at roughly equivalent to Model 3. So there will be ramp inefficiencies at first, of course, as we launch the program. But as it stabilizes with steady-state production, we do expect that it will be a higher-margin product. It's something that we're very excited about within the company.

是的。從利潤率的角度來看，我們預期Model Y的平均售價會略高於Model 3。這在轎車和跨界車行業中很常見。我們投入大量精力控制Model Y的成本。我們對此專案的穩定期預測顯示，其成本大致與Model 3相當。因此，在專案啟動初期，當然會出現一些效率低下的問題。但隨著生產趨於穩定，我們預期它將成為利潤率更高的產品。這是公司內部都非常興奮的事情。

Okay. Thank you. And the last question from institutional investors is, can you provide an update on FSD package attach rates? As FSD attach rates improve, will you let the financial benefits manifest in higher gross margins for company and shareholders? Or will you lower the price to drive delivery volume?

好的。謝謝。機構投資者提出的最後一個問題是，您能否提供 FSD 套件附加費率的最新資訊？隨著 FSD 附加率的提高，您是否會讓財務收益轉化為公司和股東更高的毛利率？還是你會降低價格來提高銷量？

I don't think we're going to need to lower the price of FSD. But I expect the price of FSD to increase slowly as the functionality and capability improve. That's -- that is unchanged. Anything you want to add? I mean, our cash gross margin obviously is higher than our GAAP gross margin because of unrecognized revenue associated with FSD attach rates. So that's why I think it's in the order of $600 million or in the order of $0.5 billion...

我認為我們不需要降低FSD的價格。但我預計隨著功能和性能的提升，FSD 的價格會緩慢上漲。這一點——這一點沒有改變。您還有什麼要補充的嗎？我的意思是，由於與 FSD 附加率相關的未確認收入，我們的現金毛利率顯然高於我們的 GAAP 毛利率。所以我認為金額應該在6億美元左右，或是5億美元左右…

$500 million.

5億美元。

$0.5 billion of unrecognized revenue. So if you were to include that, which would obviously be recognized as we release the Full Self-Driving functionality, but actual gross margin that we're operating on, on a cash basis today is higher than the GAAP gross margin.

5億美元的未確認收入。因此，如果將這一點考慮在內（這顯然會在我們發布完全自動駕駛功能時得到體現），我們目前以現金為基礎的實際毛利率高於 GAAP 毛利率。

Okay. Let's now go to questions from retail investors. The first question from Craig is, can you provide more detail on the DeepScale acquisition, its importance and whether Tesla is still on track to recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs with automatic driving on city streets by the end of 2019?

好的。現在我們來回答散戶提出的問題。Craig 的第一個問題是，您能否詳細介紹一下 DeepScale 的收購情況、其重要性，以及特斯拉是否仍有望在 2019 年底前實現城市街道上自動駕駛系統識別和響應交通號誌和停車標誌？

Sure. DeepScale is a very tiny company. It's basically about 12 people. And it's -- they have some expertise in increasing the efficiency of neural net for a given amount of compute, which I think is helpful. So it remains to be seen. But the intent behind what was a very tiny acquisition, was to, I think, slightly accelerate FSD. That's the intent. And hopefully, that will turn out to be true. Yes.

當然。DeepScale是一家規模非常小的公司。基本上就是12個人左右。而且，他們在提高給定計算量下神經網路的效率方面擁有一些專業知識，我認為這很有幫助。所以，這還有待觀察。但我認為，這筆規模很小的收購背後的目的是為了稍微加速 FSD 的發展。這就是目的。希望事實的確是如此。是的。

Okay. The second question, we've already answered regarding Model Y delivery. So we'll jump to the third question from Craig. News reports suggest that Gigafactory 3 already -- may already be producing Model 3s for Chinese markets. Could you please update us on the production expectations for Giga 3 and confirm purpose of the second building now being built? Is that for battery production as suggested by some press outlets?

好的。關於Model Y的交付，我們已經回答了第二個問題。那我們就直接跳到克雷格提出的第三個問題。新聞報導顯示，Gigafactory 3 可能已經開始為中國市場生產 Model 3 了。請問能否告知我們Giga 3的生產預期情況，並確認目前正在興建的第二棟大樓的用途？正如一些媒體報導的那樣，這是用於電池生產的嗎？

Yes. We're in trial production of Model 3. We're basically sending cars through the system, and we're ramping rapidly. We're expecting to hit volume production in a few months essentially.

是的。我們正在進行Model 3的試生產。我們基本上是在讓車輛通過生產系統，並且正在快速提高產量。我們預計幾個月內就能實現量產。

The second building is, indeed, for battery and module production. And that's probably going to -- because there's obviously a bunch more construction beyond what's already there because obviously, we need to build out facilities for Model Y production at Shanghai as well.

第二棟建築確實是用來生產電池和模組的。而且這很可能會——因為顯然除了現有的設施之外，還有很多建設工作要做，因為我們顯然還需要在上海建造 Model Y 的生產設施。

Okay. The next question from retail investors is, can you update us on the initial results of Tesla car insurance? Is there a time line to expand it nationally and internationally?

好的。散戶投資者接下來的問題是，您能否向我們介紹特斯拉汽車保險的初步結果？是否有計劃將其推廣到全國乃至全球？

Yes, I can take that. So far, we've launched Tesla Insurance in California. I have to say that I'm quite pleased by the results so far. The take rate, as measured by quote-to-purchase conversioning are quite high by industry standards. And we expect that this will only increase as folks understand the products better and receive some of the known price increases coming from some of the standard carriers that they'll come to us and look for an alternative.

是的，我可以接受。目前，我們已經在加州推出了特斯拉保險。我必須說，我對目前的結果相當滿意。以報價到購買的轉換率衡量，成交率在業界相當高。我們預計，隨著人們對產品的了解加深，以及一些標準營運商的價格上漲，這種情況只會更加普遍，他們會​​來找我們尋求替代方案。

There's a bunch of work happening behind the scenes on improving the product, particularly the purchase flow, to make sure it's the best product experience for our customers. And we're also working very hard to get other states lined up in the States and then also to launch in some countries internationally. So we're not able to provide specific time lines on those changes, but we're definitely working as quickly as we can given how well received Tesla Insurance has been in California.

幕後正在進行大量工作，以改善產品，特別是購買流程，以確保為我們的客戶提供最佳的產品體驗。我們也努力讓美國其他州也加入進來，然後爭取在一些國際國家推出這項服務。因此，我們無法提供這些變更的具體時間表，但鑑於特斯拉保險在加州廣受歡迎，我們肯定會盡最大努力盡快完成這些變更。

Yes. I think it also has a secondary effect of ensuring that the third-party providers of insurance provide reasonable rates to our customers.

是的。我認為它還有一個次要作用，那就是確保第三方保險公司為我們的客戶提供合理的費率。

I completely agree. The goal here is not to have an outsized market share of insurance. It's just to make sure that customers have an alternative to other companies as well if those rates are high. I mean ultimately, what makes the most sense for total cost of ownership perspective is for folks to have good pricing on their insurance.

我完全同意。我們的目標並非是要獲得過大的保險市場佔有率。這樣做是為了確保如果其他公司的費率過高，客戶也有其他選擇。我的意思是，從整體擁有成本的角度來看，最合理的做法是讓人們的保險價格合理。

Yes, exactly.

是的，正是如此。

Okay. And the last question from retail investors. There's skepticism regarding your comment that the Full Self-Driving will be feature-complete by year-end, like resulting from confusion about feature-complete, what feature-complete means. Could you please talk to this and perhaps give us a list of features that establish the FSD baseline?

好的。散戶最後一個問題。有人對你所說的「完全自動駕駛功能將在年底前全部完成」表示懷疑，這可能是由於對「功能完成」的概念感到困惑，不明白「功能完成」到底是什麼意思。您能否就此談談，並列出構成 FSD 基準的功能清單？

Feature-complete, I mean, it's able -- the car's able to drive from one's house to work, most likely without interventions. So it will still be supervised, but it will be able to drive -- it will fill in the gap from low-speed autonomy -- we've got low-speed autonomy with Summon. We've got high-speed autonomy on the highway. And we've got intermediate speed autonomy, which really just means traffic lights and stop signs.

功能齊全，我的意思是，它能夠——這輛車能夠從人家開到工作地點，很可能無需人為幹預。所以它仍然會受到監督，但它將能夠駕駛——它將填補低速自動駕駛的空白——我們已經通過召喚功能實現了低速自動駕駛。我們在高速公路上實現了高速自動駕駛。我們擁有中等速度的自動駕駛能力，但實際上它只意味著能夠識別交通號誌和停車標誌。

So feature-complete means it's most likely able to do that without intervention, without human intervention, but it would still be supervised.

所以，功能完備意味著它很可能無需幹預、無需人為幹預就能完成該操作，但仍需要監督。

And I've gone through this time line before, I think, several times. But it is often misconstrued. But there's like -- there's 3 major levels to autonomy. There's the car being able to be autonomous but requiring supervision and intervention at times; that's feature-complete. Then there's -- and it doesn't mean like every scenario, everywhere on earth including every corner case. It means most of the time.

而且，我想我之前已經經歷過好幾次這樣的時間線了。但它經常被誤解。但是，自主性可以分為三個主要層次。該車能夠實現自動駕駛，但有時需要監督和乾預；這就是全部功能。還有一種情況——但這並不意味著地球上的每一個地方，包括每一個特殊情況。意思是大多數時候。

And then there's another level which is that we think it's -- that from a Tesla standpoint, we think the car is safe enough to be driven without supervision.

還有另一個層面，那就是我們認為——從特斯拉的角度來看，我們認為這輛車足夠安全，可以在無人監督的情況下駕駛。

Then the third level would be that regulators are also convinced that the car can be driven autonomously without supervision. Those are the 3 different levels.

第三層級意味著監管機構也確信該汽車可以在無人監督的情況下自主駕駛。這就是三個不同的等級。

Okay. Thank you very much. Sherrine, we can now go to the questions from analysts.

好的。非常感謝。雪琳，我們現在可以進入分析師提問環節了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Dan Galves with Wolfe Research.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Dan Galves。

I was hoping that you could give us a little bit more color on sizing up the key factors in the auto gross margin improvement from Q3 to Q2. Particularly, you mentioned some nonrecurring items in the letter. And also, should investors be prepared for any meaningful headwinds as the China plant comes up but isn't at full production yet?

我希望您能更詳細地分析一下第三季到第二季汽車產業毛利率改善的關鍵因素。尤其值得一提的是，您在信中提到了一些不常發生的事項。此外，隨著中國工廠的投產但尚未全面投產，投資者是否應該做好應對可能出現的重大不利因素的準備？

Yes. I can provide a couple of comments on that. So on your final -- on your last question about China headwinds, there are always ramp inefficiencies when we launch a new factory. So we don't expect China to be any different than that. So there will be some that we experience in Q4. The amount of that is hard to forecast given that it's a different type of factory design than we did here in Fremont. We're working very hard to limit the ramp inefficiencies, but certainly, fixed cost absorption and having all of the labor ready as we ramp will have an impact on Q4.

是的。我對此有幾點看法。所以，關於你最後一個問題──關於中國市場帶來的不利影響，當我們啟動新工廠時，總是會有產能爬坡效率低落的問題。所以我們認為中國的情況也不會有什麼不同。因此，我們在第四季會遇到一些問題。鑑於其工廠設計與我們在弗里蒙特所做的不同，因此很難預測具體數量。我們正在努力減少產能爬坡過程中的效率低下問題，但可以肯定的是，固定成本的吸收以及在產能爬坡過程中所有勞動力的準備就緒，將會對第四季度產生影響。

And on the margin improvement, a couple of things there for auto gross margin. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, S and X average selling prices increased from Q2 to Q3. I mean that's important. As I mentioned in the last earnings call, the prior powertrain versions of S and X provided significant headwinds on average selling price for that product in the quarter.

關於利潤率的提高，汽車業的毛利率有幾點要注意。正如我在開場白中提到的，S 和 X 的平均售價從第二季到第三季有所上漲。我的意思是，這很重要。正如我在上次財報電話會議上提到的，S 和 X 的先前動力系統版本在本季對該產品的平均售價造成了很大的不利影響。

We've also done a bunch of work as a company to become more targeted in how we adjust pricing on our products and how we optimize that based on local supply and demand. And so I think there's a bunch of good work from the team on that in Q3, which flowed through on our financials.

公司方面也做了很多工作，力求更有針對性地調整產品定價，並根據當地的供需情況進行最佳化。所以我認為團隊在第三季在這方面做了很多出色的工作，這些工作也反映在我們的財務表現中。

And cost reduction has just remained a huge focus for us. It's hard to underestimate how much of that has been ingrained in the culture of the company. And Jerome and his team have done absolutely tremendous work there. So on every line item of our cost, whether it be manufacturing, labor, warehousing, logistics, there's just a tremendous amount of good work that happened there.

降低成本一直是我們的工作重點。很難低估這種觀念在公司文化中根深蒂固的程度。傑羅姆和他的團隊在那裡做了非常出色的工作。因此，在我們成本的每一項中，無論是製造、勞動力、倉儲或物流，都體現了大量卓有成效的工作。

Specifically on nonrecurring items, to that, I'll note one being the Smart Summon revenue recognition. Debatable whether that's considered recurring or not given that we continue to expect to release more features and release revenue associated with that in the future. But we did want to call that out specifically and the dollar value around that as we know there's been speculation around the impact for the quarter.

具體來說，關於非經常性項目，我要指出其中之一是智慧召喚收入確認。鑑於我們預計未來還會發布更多功能並獲得相應的收入，這是否屬於經常性收入還有待商榷。但我們確實想特別指出這一點以及相關的美元金額，因為我們知道外界一直在猜測這對本季的影響。

And foreign exchange is just something that, since we don't hedge, it has an impact. And it comes and goes every quarter. So we'll have to see if the quarter plays out the effect that, that has.

外匯波動就是一個問題，因為我們沒有進行對沖，所以它會對我們產生影響。它每季都會出現一次，然後消失一次。所以，我們得看看本季是否會顯現出這種影響。

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

This is George Dailey on for Adam. So first question. Is it a fair assumption to say that once the Shanghai Gigafactory has ramped, the Model 3s sold in China for China could be the most profitable car you sell, even more profitable than the average car made at Fremont right now?

這裡是喬治戴利替亞當報道。第一個問題。如果說上海超級工廠產能提升後，在中國銷售的Model 3可能會成為你銷售的最賺錢的車型，甚至比目前在弗里蒙特工廠生產的平均汽車利潤更高，這種假設是否合理？

That one is also difficult to forecast. It's a good question. At least based on the plans that we have now, we're expecting it to be roughly in line with where Model 3 is coming out of our Fremont factory. There's still a bunch of work around cost optimization in the factory after we launch with ramp inefficiencies, and we need to work those costs down. And then there will be work to land on what the right mix is within the country and where we ultimately land on the product offering. So I think just for now, it's safe to assume that it's roughly in line with the margins that you see coming out of the Fremont facility.

那件事也很難預測。這是個好問題。至少根據我們目前的計劃，我們預計它大致會與我們在弗里蒙特工廠生產的 Model 3 的產量保持一致。在工廠投產後，由於產能爬坡效率低下，還有很多成本優化的工作要做，我們需要降低這些成本。接下來，我們將努力確定國內合適的組合，以及我們最終的產品供應方案。所以我覺得就目前而言，可以比較肯定地假設它與弗里蒙特工廠的利潤率大致相當。

Great. And if I could just sneak in one more. So it's been over 7 years since you launched the Model S, and many OEMs seem that they don't have the same commitment to battery electric vehicles that you do, and many don't even offer one right now. As your business model proves to be more sustainable, could we potentially see Tesla maybe supplying other OEMs with batteries or software, complete electric vehicle architectures maybe in an effort to accelerate mass adoption of sustainable transport?

偉大的。如果我能再偷偷加一個就好了。自從您推出 Model S 以來已經超過 7 年了，許多汽車製造商似乎沒有像您一樣對純電動車投入如此之多，而且許多製造商現在甚至沒有提供純電動車。隨著特斯拉的商業模式被證明更具永續性，我們是否有可能看到特斯拉向其他汽車製造商提供電池或軟體，甚至是完整的電動車架構，以加速永續交通的大規模普及？

Yes. I think there's -- it will be consistent with the mission of Tesla to help other car companies with electric vehicles on the battery and powertrain fronts, also in other fronts. So it's something we're open to. As I think a lot of people know, we open-source our patents so that those would not serve as an obstacle to the adoption of electric vehicles or solar power or stationary storage. And we're definitely open to supplying batteries and powertrains and perhaps other things to other car companies.

是的。我認為——這與特斯拉幫助其他汽車公司在電池和動力系統方面以及其他方面發展電動車的使命是一致的。所以，我們對此持開放態度。我想很多人都知道，我們開源我們的專利，這樣這些專利就不會成為電動車、太陽能或固定式儲能技術普及的障礙。我們絕對願意向其他汽車公司供應電池、動力系統以及其他產品。

Our next question comes from Maynard Um with Macquarie.

我們的下一個問題來自麥考瑞大學的梅納德‧烏姆。

I have 2 questions. The first is software Version 10 added a lot of functionality that's never really been available in a car before through an over-the-air update. In your shareholder letter, you say that this lays an important foundation for things to come. Can you just talk about the longer-term plan or your vision for the direction of this software platform and if you have plans to monetize that opportunity?

我有兩個問題。首先，軟體版本 10 透過空中升級的方式，為汽車添加了許多以前從未真正提供過的功能。您在致股東的信中提到，這將為未來的發展奠定重要的基礎。您能否談談這個軟體平台的長期規劃或發展方向，以及您是否有計劃將這個機會變現？

Well, the goal for the infotainment system is to say what's the most amount of fun you can have in a car, which I think is -- I don't think other car companies really think about it that way. But it's really what is the most fun -- how can we maximize the enjoyment in a car such that it's not some -- just some sort of transport utility device with no soul and no character. We want it to be fun and entertaining in reference to something that you love.

嗯，車載資訊娛樂系統的目標是讓你在車上獲得最大的樂趣，我認為——我不認為其他汽車公司真的會這樣想。但真正最有趣的是——我們如何才能最大限度地享受汽車帶來的樂趣，使它不僅僅是一種沒有靈魂和個性的交通工具。我們希望它能讓你感到快樂和愉悅，並且與你喜歡的事物相關。

And so just I think there's a lot one can do because people are generally spending a couple of hours a day on average in the car. And so that's pretty high percentage of the waking time, outside of like showering and going to the bathroom and that kind of thing. It's just a lot of time. And I guess maybe there's some way to monetize it but we haven't really thought about it that way.

所以我覺得有很多事情可以做，因為人們平均每天要在車上待上好幾個小時。所以，除了洗澡、上廁所之類的活動之外，這佔據了相當高比例的清醒時間。只是時間比較長。我想或許可以找到某種獲利方式，但我們還沒有真正考慮過這個問題。

But our goal is just to make -- try to say what is the most fun you could possibly have while you're in your car. And obviously, as autonomy gets better and better, that is going to become much more of an entertainment opportunity. So we'll see where that leads. But that's what we're after. It's our goal.

但我們的目標只是——試著說說你在車上能享受到的最有趣的事情是什麼。顯然，隨著自主性越來越強，這將成為一個更具娛樂性的機會。所以，我們拭目以待。但這正是我們所追求的。這是我們的目標。

Great. And then can you help us -- help frame for us the opportunity for emission credits as the standards in the EU start to tighten next year? And I'm not looking for an exact number but maybe more to understand whether this is an opportunity in the tens of millions, hundreds of millions, billions. Anything to help us frame the opportunity and also whether you have any ongoing dialogues with OEMs.

偉大的。那麼，您能否幫助我們—幫助我們了解在歐盟明年開始收緊排放標準之際，獲得排放信用額的機會？我並不是在尋找一個確切的數字，而是更想了解這是否是一個價值數千萬美元、數億美元甚至數十億美元的機會。任何有助於我們掌握機會的信息，以及您是否正在與原始設備製造商 (OEM) 進行任何對話，請告知。

We certainly have ongoing dialogues with OEMs. But as you see from our financials, the tax credits or emissions credits are not forming a very big percentage of our revenue. They're -- I mean, Zach, what was the last quarter? It was really quite...

我們當然與原始設備製造商保持對話。但正如您從我們的財務報表中看到的，稅收抵免或排放抵免在我們收入中所佔的比例並不大。他們是——我是說，扎克，上個季度怎麼樣了？真是太安靜了…

It was over $100 million.

超過1億美元。

But out of like several billions. So it's like 1.5%. It's not exactly a giant percentage. And obviously, those credits in the U.S. are really not -- a credit situation not particularly strong for obvious reasons, which we think is not great for the future. But anyway, that's the way it is.

但從幾十億人中…所以大概是1.5%。這比例並不算高。顯然，美國的信貸狀況並不樂觀——由於顯而易見的原因，美國的信貸狀況並不特別強勁，我們認為這對未來來說並非好事。但不管怎樣，事情就是這樣。

In Europe, it's much more of a sensitivity to the environment. But we're not counting on some big windfall. Maybe it will be good. Maybe not. We don't know. But we're not counting on it.

在歐洲，人們對環境的敏感度要高得多。但我們並沒有指望獲得什麼意外之財。或許會是好事。或許不是。我們不知道。但我們並不指望它會發生。

Yes. I think that's a fair way to characterize it. I mean our expectation is that credit revenues will generally increase with time, not necessarily increasing every quarter. We did increase from Q2 to Q3. But there's a certain amount of them that are baseline based on the number of cars that we build and deliver. And there's others that are deal-specific, and those deals can happen at any point.

是的。我認為這樣描述比較貼切。我的意思是，我們預期信貸收入會整體隨著時間的推移而成長，但不一定會每季都會成長。我們確實從第二季到第三季有所成長。但其中一些數量是根據我們生產和交付的汽車數量確定的基準數量。還有一些是針對特定交易的，這些交易可能隨時發生。

So we're constantly in conversations with automakers about this. But within the company, we manage the business without counting on any profit or cash flows from regulatory credit. And we view it as purely incremental, and my recommendation is that everyone should view it that way. It's just an extra that comes through.

所以我們一直在和汽車製造商就此進行對話。但在公司內部，我們管理業務時不依賴任何利潤或監管信貸帶來的現金流。我們認為這是一個純粹的漸進過程，我的建議是每個人都應該這樣看待它。這只是額外贈送的。

It's obviously a good thing to do that would help accelerate the advent of sustainable energy for sure. But it's -- and like I say, I think outside the U.S., there seems to be a strong push in that direction, which is great. And probably within the U.S., that over time will become a strong push.

這樣做顯然是件好事，肯定有助於加速永續能源的到來。但是——就像我說的，我認為在美國以外，似乎有很強的趨勢朝著這個方向發展，這很好。而且隨著時間的推移，這很可能會在美國國內成為一股強大的推動力。

Our next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的伊曼紐·羅斯納。

It's Edison on for Emmanuel. First, there's been a lot of activity in the industry about electric pickups lately. Just curious if you have any updates, any more insights you can share on the one that you're about to put out later.

艾迪森正在為伊曼紐爾上場。首先，最近業界對電動皮卡的關注度很高。只是好奇你有沒有什麼最新消息，或是關於你即將發布的那篇文章，還有什麼新的見解可以分享。

And then secondly, there was a comment, I think, earlier about the order book quarter to date. Can you just clarify what was the baseline? And any insights about the geographic mix of that?

其次，我想之前有人提到過本季迄今的訂單情況。能具體說明一下基準線是什麼嗎？關於其地理構成，您有什麼見解嗎？

Yes. We -- I think we've said enough about the Tesla side of the truck. We're not going to -- this is not the right forum for us to do product launches. But I think it'll be -- will be -- I mean, my opinion, and this could be totally wrong, it could be totally out to lunch here, but I think the Tesla side of truck is our best product ever. That's my opinion. Yes. The demand is not -- it seems to be strong. So we should be production-constrained this quarter.

是的。我想我們已經對特斯拉卡車的部分說得夠多了。我們不會－這裡不是我們進行產品發表會的合適場所。但我認為——將會是——我的意思是，這是我的看法，這可能完全錯誤，可能完全是異想天開，但我認為特斯拉卡車是我們有史以來最好的產品。這是我的看法。是的。需求並非如此——似乎很強勁。因此，我們本季的產量應該會受到限制。

Yes, that's right. The baseline from the comment earlier that I made was looking at this point in the quarter in Q2. And order rates are strong, I would say, in all markets. I think we're very encouraged as a team at the reception of our products. As more and more people become aware of electric vehicles, I think competitive products help raise that awareness, and overall interest is just increasing.

是的，沒錯。我之前評論中的基準是著眼於第二季的這個階段。而且我認為，所有市場的訂單量都很強勁。我認為，我們團隊對產品的市場反應感到非常鼓舞。隨著越來越多的人了解電動車，我認為競爭性產品有助於提高這種認識，而整體興趣也不斷增長。

So our focus internally is to increase production as fast as we can, both with the existing equipment and accelerating our timelines on new capacity. We believe that everybody should be driving an electric car. So we need to move as quickly as we can.

因此，我們內部的重點是盡快提高產量，既利用現有設備，也要加快新產能的建造進度。我們認為每個人都應該駕駛電動車。所以我們需要盡快行動。

Yes, absolutely. But we want to get the Tesla volume to where it is, perhaps somewhere on the order of 1% -- replacing 1% of the global fleet over time. That's, I think -- we think it's pretty big, but that's -- we think that's a good one to aim for, which is about 20 million vehicles a year, just by the way.

是的，絕對的。但我們希望特斯拉的銷量達到目前的水平，或許在 1% 左右——隨著時間的推移，取代全球 1% 的汽車保有量。我認為——我們認為這相當大，但這——我們認為這是一個很好的目標，也就是每年大約 2000 萬輛汽車。

But I do think that the demand for new cars will rise as the world transitions away from combustion engine vehicles. Just as when people had CRT TVs, there's no cathode ray tube TVs, the sales rate was just basically a replacement rate. You wouldn't buy -- you wouldn't really buy a new CRT TV unless it was broke. But when flat screens came out, there was a big step-change in demand because now getting a big flat screen TV was much better than having a small CRT TV.

但我認為，隨著世界逐步淘汰燃油汽車，對新車的需求將會上升。就像以前人們使用CRT電視機的時候一樣，現在已經沒有陰極射線管電視機了，當時的銷售率基本上只是替換率。你不會買－除非你的CRT電視壞了，否則你不會真的去買一台新的。但當平面電視問世後，需求發生了巨大的變化，因為現在擁有一台大尺寸的平面電視比擁有一台小尺寸的CRT電視要好得多。

And I think we'll see the same thing with electric vehicles, which is that the -- it's not just people are just buying a car just because their last car wore out. They'll buy an electric car because it's a fundamentally better car, and especially if it's got self-driving.

我認為電動車也會如此，也就是說，人們買車並不是因為他們之前的車已經報廢了。他們會購買電動車，因為電動車本質上是更好的汽車，尤其是如果它具備自動駕駛功能的話。

Your next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

你的下一個問題來自新街研究公司的皮耶·費拉古。

I'd be interested to hear how your…

我很想聽聽你的情況…

We can't hear you. It's very quiet so we can't hear you.

我們聽不到你的聲音。這裡很安靜，所以我們聽不到你們的聲音。

Oh can you hear me well?

哦，你聽得清楚我說話嗎？

It's muffled, but we'll try.

雖然聲音有點悶，但我們會盡力。

Okay. Sorry for that. So I was wondering how your thinking has evolved on Model S and Model X. It looks like the deliveries have stayed to the levels of the previous quarter and that Model 3 has indeed cannibalized this demand for these cars quite a big deal. So how are you thinking about these 2 models going forward? What's the strategy you have in mind? And then I have a quick follow-up on the Model Y.

好的。抱歉。所以我想知道您對Model S和Model X的看法有何變化。看起來交付量與上一季持平，而且Model 3確實對這兩款車的需求造成了相當大的衝擊。那麼，您對這兩種模式未來的發展有何看法？你有什麼策略打算？然後，我還要快速跟進一下Model Y的情況。

The Models S and X are really niche -- they're really niche products. I mean they're very expensive, made in low volume. To be totally frank, we'll keep -- we're continuing to make them more for sentimental reasons than anything else. They're really of minor importance to the future.

Model S 和 Model X 的定位非常小眾——它們是真正的小眾產品。我的意思是，它們價格非常昂貴，而且產量很低。坦白說，我們會繼續製作它們——我們繼續製作它們更多是出於情感原因，而不是其他原因。它們對未來其實並不重要。

Okay. That makes sense. And then my question...

好的。這很有道理。然後我的問題是…

They're a great car. Model S, I think, is by -- if you want to -- I mean Model S literally won Motor Trend's best car ever in history, by the way. I think if you're out there and you're buying -- and you're sedan-buying and you don't buy a Model S, I think you've just made a mistake, to be totally frank. It's incredible, especially the new one with variable damping, suspension, hospital operating room, HEPA filter for air purification, the Raven powertrain. It's the fastest car in the world. And it's just it's so easy to drive. It makes you feel like Superman driving that car. It's incredibly safe. It's just an amazing vehicle.

它們是很棒的車。我認為，Model S 就是——如果你願意的話——我的意思是，順便一提，Model S 確實贏得了 Motor Trend 有史以來最好的汽車獎。坦白說，我認為如果你正在買車——而且你買的是轎車，卻沒買Model S，那你就犯了個錯誤。它太棒了，尤其是新款，配備了可變阻尼懸吊、醫院手術室級別的空氣淨化 HEPA 過濾器以及 Raven 動力系統。它是世界上速度最快的汽車。而且開車真的很容易。開著那輛車，感覺自己就像超人一樣。它非常安全。這真是一輛很棒的車。

And then Model S, I think, it's like the Fabergé egg of cars -- I mean Model X. Model X is like the Fabergé egg of cars. It's -- I mean that's why so many artists and musicians buy the cars. It's an art piece, basically.

然後是 Model S，我覺得它就像汽車界的法貝熱彩蛋——我是說 Model X。 Model X 就像是汽車界的法貝熱彩蛋。我的意思是，這就是為什麼很多藝術家和音樂家都買這些車的原因。它基本上是一件藝術品。

Yes. I mean it's just that. I agree. They're absolutely phenomenal cars. And we are increasing production on kind of S and X lines for this quarter in response to increasing demand. And so I think part of the story here is, as we've launched, ramped and stabilized Model 3, that consumes a lot of the attention around the company. But now that -- as that has stabilized, we're able to focus our attention and balance that between S and X and Model 3.

是的。我的意思是，就是這樣。我同意。它們是絕對出色的汽車。為了因應不斷增長的需求，我們將在本季增加 S 型和 X 型生產線的產量。所以我覺得，部分原因是，隨著 Model 3 的推出、量產和穩定，它吸引了公司的大部分注意力。但現在情況已經穩定下來，我們可以集中精力，在S、X和Model 3之間取得平衡。

And so the delivery numbers in Q3 understated the interest in the product for that quarter. And we continue to see strength in the order rate, which we anticipate will be reflected in S and X deliveries in Q4.

因此，第三季的交付量低估了該季度消費者對該產品的興趣。我們持續看到訂單量保持強勁成長，預計這將反映在第四季度 S 和 X 的交付量上。

I mean Model S -- basically, Model S at this point has a range of 370 miles. Actually, technically, it's 373, but we actually certified it incorrectly at 370. But it's 373. And there are some software improvements that we think will make that even better.

我的意思是 Model S——基本上，Model S 目前的續航里程為 370 英里。實際上，嚴格來說，應該是 373，但我們錯誤地將其認證為 370。但它是 373。我們認為，一些軟體改進將使情況變得更好。

Oh I forgot to mention, we're also expecting that there's going to be out there improvement -- that will improve the power of the Model S, X and 3. That's a by the way; this is coming in a few weeks. It should be on the order of 5% power improvement due to improved firmware. Drew, do you want to say anything on that one?

哦，我忘了提一下，我們還預計會有改進——這將提升Model S、Model X和Model 3的動力。順便一提，這項改進將在幾週內推出。由於韌體改進，功耗應該會提升 5% 左右。德魯，你對此有什麼要說的嗎？

Yes. We're just continuing to learn how to optimize the motor control in our products. And yes, so a 5% improvement for all 3 customers and 3% for S and X.

是的。我們正在不斷學習如何優化我們產品中的馬達控制。是的，所有 3 位客戶的表現都提升了 5%，S 和 X 客戶的表現提升了 3%。

Yes. And there's also the single-pedal driving that will improve the range as well.

是的。此外，單踏板駕駛功能也將提高續航里程。

Yes. Very excited about that. It's going to -- it's an improvement in comfort and feel.

是的。對此我感到非常興奮。將會－舒適度和觸感都會有所提升。

Yes. So basically, it's easier to drive, and it improves the range.

是的。所以基本上來說，它更容易駕駛，而且續航里程也更長。

Yes. And faster supercharging.

是的。而且超級充電速度更快。

Oh, and faster supercharging.

哦，還有更快的超級充電速度。

For Standard Range and Standard Range Plus customers, which is a big deal.

對於標準系列和標準系列加強版的使用者來說，這可是件大事。

Yes. I don't think there's ever been a situation in history where you buy a car and it gets way better over time just due to software. Not a little bit better, but a lot, right? Because -- yes.

是的。我認為歷史上從未出現過這樣的情況：你買了一輛車，隨著時間的推移，僅僅因為軟體的改進，它的性能就大幅提升。不是稍微好一點，而是好很多，對吧？因為——是的。

It's very exciting. I think, yes, as a customer myself, I enjoy these updates. Always look forward to them.

這太令人興奮了。是的，身為顧客，我很喜歡這些更新。總是充滿期待。

Yes. It might move the Model S range to almost 380 or high 370s with the update.

是的。更新後，Model S 的續航里程可能會達到 380 英里左右，甚至接近 370 英里。

And we're not stopping to work there. We continue working on our developments. Yes.

我們不會就此止步。我們正持續推動研發工作。是的。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，絕對的。

Pierre, did you have a follow-up question?

皮埃爾，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes, yes. Just a quick one on the Model Y. So I was wondering if you -- what you've learned with the S and X makes you think maybe when you launch Model Y, you'll have some cannibalization of demand of the Model 3? And have you started to think about that and how to approach it?

是的，是的。關於Model Y，我有個問題想問一下。我想問您，您從Model S和Model X的經驗中學到的東西，是否讓您覺得Model Y上市後，可能會蠶食Model 3的部分市場需求？你有沒有開始思考這個問題以及如何著手解決？

No, I don't think -- we're not expecting to see cannibalization of Model 3. One is a sedan. One is an SUV.

不，我不認為——我們預計不會出現Model 3被蠶食的情況。 Model 3是轎車。其中一輛是SUV。

Yes. The best comparison we have for that is when we launched Model X and we had Model S at the time.

是的。對此最好的類比就是我們推出 Model X 的時候，當時我們還有 Model S。

Yes. Model S sales increased.

是的。Model S銷量成長。

Yes. And we didn't see any cannibalization there.

是的。而且我們沒有看到任何同類相食的現象。

The opposite. When we launched Model X, Model S sales increased.

恰恰相反。Model X上市後，Model S的銷售量反而增加了。

Yes. So that's the best comparison that we have.

是的。這是我們能找到的最佳對比。

Our next question comes from Dan Levy with Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的丹·列維。

First, just wanted to ask a question on the Giga 3. You're targeting 3,000 units a week. But we saw with Fremont that the ramp on Model 3 was lumpy. And you'd sort of ramp and then you sort of cut production to fix the bottlenecks. Given that this is a brand-new capacity, how smooth should we expect production to be on a week-to-week basis? Meaning once you hit the 3,000, is that 3,000 you could go every single week in a quarter? Or is it still going to be lumpy within a quarter?

首先，我想問一下關於 Giga 3 的問題。你們的目標是每週生產 3000 台。但我們在弗里蒙特看到，Model 3 的坡道並不平整。然後你會逐步提高產量，然後再逐步削減產量來解決瓶頸問題。鑑於這是一個全新的產能，我們應該預期每週的生產運作會有多順利？也就是說，一旦你達到 3000，這 3000 是不是指你在一個季度內每週都能達到的？或者說，季度內仍然會出現波動嗎？

I mean if you've got a crystal ball, we'd love to use it.

我的意思是，如果你有水晶球，我們很樂意使用它。

I'm looking for it.

我正在尋找它。

Yes. It should be smoother than Model 3 because there's a lot of commonality of parts. But -- and I think if you look over a reasonable enough time frame, the production will actually be fairly smooth. But from a week-to-week standpoint, it obviously will not be. It will be about as smooth as, say, the stock market. I mean how smooth is the stock market from one week to the next? It's -- but if you just extend the time period to, say, 2 or 3 quarters, it will be a very rapid steady ramp. And obviously, it will go way past 3,000 a week.

是的。由於零件的通用性很強，它的運作應該比 Model 3 更流暢。但是——而且我認為，如果你放眼足夠合理的時間範圍，生產過程實際上會相當順利。但從每週的角度來看，顯然不會如此。它的平穩程度大概會和股市差不多。我的意思是，股市每週的走勢有多穩定？確實如此——但如果你把時間段延長到比如說 2 或 3 個季度，它就會是一個非常快速穩定的成長。顯然，這個數字會遠遠超過每週 3000 次。

Okay. Great. And then just a follow-up. You mentioned -- Elon, you mentioned earlier in your comments that one of the things you're optimistic on in the future is Tesla Energy. And I think we understand the part that one of the challenges in the past was sort of a reallocation of resources away from energy to the auto side. Could you just talk to where you see the greatest pockets of growth in energy? Is it solar or storage? And now that you have to -- now that you can reallocate resources, what would that entail in terms of capacity growth? Or what does reallocation of resources look like?

好的。偉大的。然後還有一個後續問題。伊隆，你之前在評論中提到過，你對未來感到樂觀的事情之一就是特斯拉能源。我認為我們都明白，過去面臨的挑戰之一是將資源從能源領域重新分配到汽車領域。您能否談談您認為能源領域成長最快的區域在哪裡？是太陽能發電還是儲能？既然現在你必須──既然現在你可以重新分配資源，那麼在產能成長方面，這又意味著什麼？或者說，資源重新分配又是什麼樣的呢？

Well, I think from a percentage basis, solar will grow the fastest, but storage will also grow high on a percentage basis. I think both, over time, will grow faster than automotive. I think it's starting from smaller base. And I think especially if you look at sort of -- if you look at like year-over-year growth, it will be absolutely incredible, I think. From one quarter to the next, there might be some fluctuations due to seasonality or some short-term part shortage or you name it, but it could be, over the course of, say, a year, gigantic increase.

我認為，從百分比來看，太陽能的成長速度最快，但儲能的成長百分比也會很高。我認為從長遠來看，這兩個行業的發展速度都會超過汽車產業。我認為它是從較小的基數開始的。而且我認為，特別是如果你看一下——如果你看一下同比增速，那將會是絕對不可思議的。從一個季度到下一個季度，由於季節性因素或某些短期零件短缺等原因，可能會出現一些波動，但從一年來看，可能會出現巨大的增長。

Also with solar, it's hard to install a lot of solar in the winter, especially on the East Coast. The roofs are full of snow and ice. So you would expect to see some seasonality there, but then it ramps up quite a bit when -- as the weather improves. Yes.

此外，在冬季安裝大量太陽能發電裝置也很困難，尤其是在東海岸。屋頂上積滿了冰雪。所以，你會預期那裡會有一些季節性變化，但隨著天氣好轉，這種變化會加劇。是的。

Okay. Thank you very much. And I think that's, unfortunately, all the time we have today. Appreciate all your questions, and we're looking forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much, and goodbye.

好的。非常感謝。很遺憾，我想這就是我們今天所擁有的全部時間了。感謝您提出的所有問題，我們期待下個季度與您再次交流。非常感謝，再見。

All right. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。