特斯拉 (TSLA) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Tesla's Q3 2019 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎收聽特斯拉 2019 年第三季度財務業績和問答網絡直播。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference to over your speaker, Mr. Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給您的發言人，投資者關係高級總監 Martin Viecha 先生。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Sherrine.

謝謝你，雪琳。

And good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Welcome to Tesla's Third Quarter 2019 Q&A Webcast.

歡迎收聽特斯拉 2019 年第三季度問答網絡直播。

I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives.

今天，埃隆·馬斯克、扎卡里·柯克霍恩和其他一些高管加入了我的行列。

Our Q3 results were announced at about 2 p.m.

我們在下午 2 點左右公佈了第三季度業績。

Pacific Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

我們在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上發布的更新平台中的太平洋時間。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。

These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。

Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.

但在我們進入問答環節之前，埃隆有一些開場白。

Elon?

埃隆?

Thank you.

謝謝你。

First of all, I'd like to just thank the Tesla team for an incredible job this quarter.

首先，我要感謝特斯拉團隊在本季度所做的出色工作。

The execution was outstanding and on just about every front.

執行非常出色，幾乎在每一個方面。

So it's just an honor to work with such a great team.

所以很榮幸能與這樣一支優秀的團隊合作。

Q4 -- Q3 was obviously a very strong quarter.

第四季度——第三季度顯然是一個非常強勁的季度。

And we had record deliveries.

我們有創紀錄的交付。

We're able to make great strides in controlling our costs.

我們能夠在控製成本方面取得長足進步。

We shifted back to GAAP profitability while also generating strong free cash flow.

我們轉向了 GAAP 盈利能力，同時也產生了強勁的自由現金流。

And again, this would not be possible without each employee doing their part to reduce cost.

再一次，如果沒有每個員工都儘自己的一份力來降低成本，這將是不可能的。

Our operating cost is now at the lowest level since Model 3 production started.

我們的運營成本現在處於 Model 3 投產以來的最低水平。

Regarding Gigafactory Shanghai, this month, we started trial production at Giga Shanghai in both vehicles from body to paint to general assembly.

關於上海超級工廠，本月，我們在上海超級工廠開始了從車身到油漆再到總裝的兩種車輛的試生產。

So this is a -- I want to emphasize, this is a real factory with a tremendous amount of equipment in it.

所以這是一個——我想強調，這是一個真正的工廠，裡面有大量的設備。

While a lot of people see the outside shell of the factory, which is enormous and it was essentially underwater in January, it was just below the water table literally, what is, I think, much more significant is that we're able to install massive stamping machines, a fully operational paint shop and a sophisticated general assembly line in the same period of time in parallel with building the building.

雖然很多人看到工廠的外殼很大，一月份它基本上在水下，但實際上它就在地下水位以下，我認為，更重要的是我們能夠安裝大型沖壓機、全面運作的塗裝車間和精密的總裝配線在同一時期與建造建築物同時進行。

I'd like to thank our entire team for this extraordinary achievement.

我要感謝我們整個團隊所取得的非凡成就。

I'm not aware of any factory of this magnitude in history being constructed in such a short period of time, approximately 10 months.

我不知道在這麼短的時間內（大約 10 個月）建造了歷史上如此規模的任何工廠。

As far as I know, this is unprecedented.

據我所知，這是前所未有的。

And Gigafactory Shanghai will become a template for future growth.

上海超級工廠將成為未來增長的模板。

We're planning to build Model Ys in Shanghai as well, of course, and build a Gigafactory in Europe.

當然，我們也計劃在上海建造 Model Y，並在歐洲建造 Gigafactory。

And we hope to announce the location of that Gigafactory -- in fact, we will announce the location of that Gigafactory before the end of this year.

我們希望宣布那個 Gigafactory 的位置——事實上，我們會在今年年底之前宣布那個 Gigafactory 的位置。

Regarding Model Y, we're also ahead of schedule on Model Y preparations in Fremont.

關於 Model Y，我們在弗里蒙特的 Model Y 準備工作也提前了。

And we've moved the launch time line from fall 2020 to summer 2020.

我們已將發佈時間線從 2020 年秋季移至 2020 年夏季。

There may be some room for improvement there, but we're confident about summer 2020.

那裡可能還有一些改進的空間，但我們對 2020 年夏季充滿信心。

I've actually recently driven the Model Y Release Candidate, and I think it's going to an amazing product and be very well received.

實際上，我最近駕駛了 Model Y Release Candidate，我認為這將是一款了不起的產品，並且非常受歡迎。

I think it's quite likely to -- it's just my opinion, but I think it will outsell S, X and 3 combined.

我認為很有可能——這只是我的看法，但我認為它的銷量將超過 S、X 和 3 的總和。

Regarding Version 10 and Smart Summon, last month, we released our latest software, Version 10, which includes video streaming, games, karaoke, Spotify and a host of other new features and improvements.

關於版本 10 和 Smart Summon，上個月，我們發布了最新的軟件版本 10，其中包括視頻流、遊戲、卡拉 OK、Spotify 以及許多其他新功能和改進。

Most importantly, it includes the first version of Smart Summon, which has now been used 1 million times.

最重要的是，它包括了智能召喚的第一個版本，現在已經使用了 100 萬次。

So it's now over 1 million users of Smart Summon.

所以現在 Smart Summon 的用戶已超過 100 萬。

And we're -- in the next week or so, we will be releasing an improved version of Smart Summon, taking into account all the data from those 1 million Smart Summon attempts.

而且我們——在接下來的一周左右，我們將發布智能召喚的改進版本，考慮到來自這 100 萬次智能召喚嘗試的所有數據。

So this really illustrates the value of having a massive fleet because it allows us to collect these corner cases and learn from them and use fleet learning and become rapidly better, just as Navigate on Autopilot did on the freeway.

因此，這確實說明了擁有龐大車隊的價值，因為它使我們能夠收集這些極端案例並從中學習並使用車隊學習並迅速變得更好，就像 Navigate on Autopilot 在高速公路上所做的那樣。

So expect a number of improvements in Smart Summon in the weeks to come.

因此，期待在未來幾週內智能召喚的一些改進。

And this really is just the beginning as we collect more data and Autopilot and Full Self-Driving functionality gets better.

隨著我們收集更多數據並且自動駕駛和全自動駕駛功能變得更好，這真的只是一個開始。

I do -- while it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access release of a feature-complete Full Self-Driving future this year.

我確實——雖然它會很緊張，但看起來我們至少會受到限制——在今年功能完整的全自動駕駛未來的早期訪問版本中。

So it's not for sure, but it appears to be on track for at least the early access release of a fully functional Full Self-Driving by the end of this year.

所以不確定，但至少在今年年底前，功能齊全的全自動駕駛的早期訪問版本似乎已經步入正軌。

And yes, lastly, we're highly focused on decisions that really make a material difference to the company such as opening Gigafactories in other continents.

是的，最後，我們高度關注真正對公司產生重大影響的決策，例如在其他大陸開設超級工廠。

Yes, it's worth noting that these -- ultimately, having 3 Gigafactories, effectively, we'll actually triple our output.

是的，值得注意的是，這些——最終，擁有 3 個 Gigafactories，實際上我們的產量實際上會增加三倍。

And then when you consider increased output per Gigafactory, it's going to actually more than triple our output over time.

然後，當您考慮增加每個 Gigafactory 的產量時，實際上隨著時間的推移，我們的產量將增加三倍以上。

And then there are a lot of interesting things happening with respect to advanced batteries and more efficient powertrains and Full Self-Driving, all that sort of stuff.

然後在先進的電池、更高效的動力系統和全自動駕駛等方面發生了很多有趣的事情。

But that will be something for a future time.

但這將是未來的事情。

And then one last item is that tomorrow afternoon, we will be releasing version 3 of the Tesla Solar Roof.

最後一項是明天下午，我們將發布特斯拉太陽能屋頂的第 3 版。

That's the integrated solar -- with solar panels integrated with the roof.

這就是集成太陽能——太陽能電池板與屋頂集成在一起。

So that's -- I think this is a great product.

那就是-我認為這是一個很棒的產品。

Version 1 and 2, we're still sort of figuring things out.

版本 1 和 2，我們仍在搞清楚。

Version 3, I think, is finally ready for the big time.

我認為，第 3 版終於為大時代做好了準備。

And so we're scaling up production of the version 3 solar tower roof at our Buffalo Gigafactory.

因此，我們正在 Buffalo Gigafactory 擴大第 3 版太陽能塔頂的生產。

And I think this product is going to be incredible.

我認為這個產品將是不可思議的。

But we'll talk more about that on the official product launch, which will be tomorrow afternoon.

但我們將在明天下午的正式產品發布會上詳細討論這一點。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And I think Zachary has some remarks as well.

我認為 Zachary 也有一些評論。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, Elon.

謝謝你，埃隆。

Thank you, Martin.

謝謝你，馬丁。

Q3 was a great quarter for Tesla.

第三季度對特斯拉來說是一個很好的季度。

I know many employees are listening right now, and I want to thank you for your passion and your hard work.

我知道很多員工現在都在傾聽，我要感謝你們的熱情和辛勤工作。

We've made terrific progress, and yet again, we realized margin improvement in nearly every aspect of the business.

我們已經取得了巨大的進步，而且我們幾乎在業務的各個方面都實現了利潤率的提高。

There are 3 key points I'd like to highlight.

我想強調三個關鍵點。

First, we returned to profitability in Q3, aided by improved gross profit, reduced operating expenses in the absence of negative onetime items that weighed on our financials in the first half of the year.

首先，我們在第三季度恢復盈利，這得益於毛利潤的提高，在沒有對我們上半年財務造成壓力的一次性負面項目的情況下減少了運營費用。

GAAP automotive gross margin improved sequentially to 22.8% and over 20% excluding regulatory credits.

GAAP 汽車毛利率環比提高至 22.8%，不包括監管信貸則超過 20%。

We achieved these improvements through higher production volumes on S/X and Model 3, enabling better fixed cost absorption.

我們通過提高 S/X 和 Model 3 的產量來實現這些改進，從而更好地吸收固定成本。

We realized improvements in labor hours per vehicle as well as other costs such as warehousing, logistics, delivery and import-related items.

我們實現了每輛車的工時以及倉儲、物流、交付和進口相關物品等其他成本的改善。

We're also making continued progress reducing material costs, including commercial negotiations with suppliers.

我們還在不斷降低材料成本方面取得進展，包括與供應商的商業談判。

Model S and X ASPs increased even accounting for revenue deferrals related to free unlimited supercharging.

即使將與免費無限增壓相關的收入遞延計算在內，Model S 和 X 的平均售價也有所增加。

And Model 3 ASPs declined slightly driven by mix in Asia, pricing action in EMEA.

而 Model 3 的平均售價則因亞洲市場的混合和歐洲、中東和非洲的定價行動而略有下降。

North American ASPs held flat as mix improved, offsetting pricing action we took at the start of the quarter, which is great to see.

隨著產品組合的改善，北美 ASP 持平，抵消了我們在本季度初採取的定價行動，這很值得一看。

Note that with the release of Smart Summon in the U.S., we were able to recognize $30 million of deferred revenue.

請注意，隨著 Smart Summon 在美國的發布，我們能夠確認 3000 萬美元的遞延收入。

As we expand Smart Summon to additional markets and release new features, we'll continue to recognize additional deferred revenue.

隨著我們將 Smart Summon 擴展到其他市場並發布新功能，我們將繼續確認額外的遞延收入。

Our services and other loss reduced yet again, reflecting our focus to improve the efficiency of this area of the business.

我們的服務和其他損失再次減少，反映了我們專注於提高該業務領域的效率。

And we further reduced operating expenses despite increased orders, deliveries and new programs in development.

儘管訂單、交付和開發中的新項目增加，但我們進一步降低了運營費用。

And finally, on net income -- in other income, we saw benefits from foreign exchange which, as I mentioned last quarter, we don't hedge.

最後，在淨收入方面——在其他收入方面，我們看到了外匯帶來的好處，正如我上個季度提到的，我們沒有對沖。

The second key point I want to highlight is that we demonstrated another quarter of strong free cash flows despite a significant increase in our captive leasing mix and a sequential increase in CapEx spend.

我想強調的第二個關鍵點是，儘管我們的專屬租賃組合顯著增加並且資本支出連續增加，但我們展示了另一個季度強勁的自由現金流。

This has enabled year-to-date positive free cash flows for the company.

這為公司帶來了年初至今的正自由現金流。

Our cash balance increased by approximately the same amount as our free cash flows, and we exited the quarter with our highest quarter ending cash balance ever of just over $5.3 billion.

我們的現金餘額增加了與我們的自由現金流量大致相同的數量，並且我們以剛剛超過 53 億美元的最高季度末現金餘額退出了本季度。

Specifically, on captive leases, we received a number of questions on how these are funded.

具體來說，在專屬租賃方面，我們收到了許多關於如何獲得資金的問題。

We use our leasing warehouse and ABS sales to allow for captive leases without material use of cash.

我們使用我們的租賃倉庫和 ABS 銷售來允許在不大量使用現金的情況下進行專屬租賃。

What's important to note here is that our warehouse and ABS flow through financing cash flow and, as a result, leases negatively impact free cash flow.

這裡需要注意的重要一點是，我們的倉庫和 ABS 通過融資現金流流動，因此，租賃對自由現金流產生負面影響。

This impact was material in Q3 as the lease rate increased substantially by 50%.

這種影響在第三季度很重要，因為租賃率大幅增加了 50%。

In addition, CapEx spend increased driven primarily by Gigafactory Shanghai and Model Y spending.

此外，資本支出增加主要受上海超級工廠和 Model Y 支出的推動。

We received a number of questions on why our capital spending appears low compared to prior levels even though there are multiple new projects launching and in development.

儘管有多個新項目正在啟動和開發中，但我們收到了許多關於為什麼我們的資本支出與之前的水平相比顯得低的問題。

As we noted in the shareholder letter this quarter and last quarter, this is because we've made great progress on improving our capital efficiency.

正如我們在本季度和上一季度的股東信中指出的那樣，這是因為我們在提高資本效率方面取得了很大進展。

My third and final point is around demand and growth.

我的第三點也是最後一點是圍繞需求和增長。

Our global order rate remains strong and continues to increase.

我們的全球訂單率保持強勁並繼續增長。

Despite increases to production levels, our order backlog has been growing.

儘管生產水平有所提高，但我們的訂單積壓一直在增長。

And quarter-to-date orders are significantly higher than at this point in last quarter.

季度至今的訂單明顯高於上一季度的這一點。

In the immediate term, we're focused on increasing production of Model 3 and Model S and X as quickly as we can.

在短期內，我們專注於盡快增加 Model 3、Model S 和 X 的產量。

The bulk of this work involves continued optimization of existing equipment.

這項工作的大部分涉及對現有設備的持續優化。

We've also made targeted adjustments to pricing to better balance supply and demand.

我們還對定價進行了有針對性的調整，以更好地平衡供需。

Our pace of execution on these factories and capacity expansion has increased significantly.

我們對這些工廠和產能擴張的執行速度顯著加快。

As Elon mentioned, the first phase of Gigafactory Shanghai is already production-ready, and we've been able to pull in the time line for other major projects.

正如 Elon 所說，Gigafactory Shanghai 的第一階段已經準備好生產，我們已經能夠為其他重大項目爭取時間線。

Overall, we are quickly turning the corner for our next phase of growth, and our financial health continues to strengthen.

總體而言，我們正在為下一階段的增長迅速扭轉局面，我們的財務狀況繼續加強。

We remain focused on reducing cost, which enables rapid investments in future programs and growth.

我們仍然專注於降低成本，這使得對未來計劃和增長的快速投資成為可能。

Thank you very much, and I think also, our Senior Director of Energy Operations, Kunal Girotra, wanted to add some remarks.

非常感謝，我想我們的能源運營高級總監 Kunal Girotra 也想補充一些意見。

Hi, everyone.

大家好。

My name is Kunal Girotra, and I've been with Tesla for about 4 years, working on different aspects of deploying our energy products.

我叫 Kunal Girotra，在特斯拉工作了大約 4 年，致力於部署我們的能源產品的不同方面。

I now run Tesla Energy's deployment and fulfillment teams.

我現在負責管理 Tesla Energy 的部署和執行團隊。

Over the last 3 months, the energy teams have made great progress in both our solar and energy storage businesses.

在過去的 3 個月裡，能源團隊在我們的太陽能和儲能業務方面都取得了長足的進步。

As you can see in our quarterly deck, our solar deployments rose by almost 50% over the last quarter.

正如您在我們的季度報告中看到的那樣，我們的太陽能部署比上一季度增長了近 50%。

And our energy storage deployment, which includes Powerwalls and Powerpacks, grew by 15% to an all-time high of 477 megawatt hours.

我們的儲能部署（包括 Powerwalls 和 Powerpacks）增長了 15%，達到 477 兆瓦時的歷史新高。

In the last 3 months, we relaunched Tesla solar in North America by simplifying our solar offering into 3 sizes of small, medium and large.

在過去的 3 個月中，我們通過將我們的太陽能產品簡化為小型、中型和大型 3 種尺寸，在北美重新推出了特斯拉太陽能。

We're transferring pricing on the website.

我們正在網站上轉移定價。

Actually, if I may interject a minute, but what a lot of people don't realize is in -- like in California and in a number of other states, if you buy our sort of solar subscription or solar rental, there's no money down and you instantly save on your utility bill and there's no long-term contract.

實際上，如果我可以插話一會，但很多人沒有意識到 - 就像在加利福尼亞和其他一些州，如果你購買我們的太陽能訂閱或太陽能租賃，沒有錢您可以立即節省水電費，並且沒有長期合同。

So it's kind of a no-brainer.

所以這是一種不費吹灰之力的事情。

It's really do you want something that prints money?

你真的想要印錢的東西嗎？

And if it doesn't print money, we'll fix it or take it back.

如果它不印錢，我們會修復它或收回它。

It's kind of a no-brainer.

這是一種不費吹灰之力的事情。

And it sort of plays into Tesla's overarching strategy here, which is effectively to become like a giant distributed global utility on the energy front.

它在某種程度上影響了特斯拉的總體戰略，該戰略實際上是成為能源領域的一個巨大的分佈式全球公用事業公司。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

The subscription solar offering that you mentioned was launched in 6 states.

您提到的訂閱太陽能產品已在 6 個州推出。

And like you said, it's fixed monthly payments and no long-term contracts.

就像你說的，這是固定的每月付款，沒有長期合同。

And the response from customers have been pretty awesome.

客戶的反應非常棒。

Most people do actually buy it as opposed to rent it, which is actually technically the better -- while you make money is immediately if you're rental, it's actually a better investment if you buy it because the cost of capital of the consumer is better than our cost of capital.

大多數人確實購買它而不是租它，從技術上講，這實際上更好——如果你是租的，你會立即賺錢，如果你買它實際上是一個更好的投資，因為消費者的資本成本是優於我們的資本成本。

And then there was like an interesting study by Zillow and a number of other organizations that show that adding solar to your home increases the price of -- increases the value of your home.

然後就像 Zillow 和其他一些組織進行的一項有趣的研究表明，在您的房屋中添加太陽能會增加價格 - 增加您房屋的價值。

And the Zillow study showed a 4% increase in the value of the home with solar.

Zillow 的研究表明，使用太陽能的房屋價值增加了 4%。

And then if you add sort of the Powerwall, which gives you blackout protection, so you will have energy security in an event of rolling blackouts or if the power goes up for any reason, which appears to be a long-term systemic issue in California particularly, that I think this definitely can be viewed as a significant asset for any home.

然後，如果您添加某種 Powerwall，它可以為您提供停電保護，這樣您就可以在輪流停電或電力因任何原因上升的情況下獲得能源安全，這在加利福尼亞似乎是一個長期的系統性問題特別是，我認為這絕對可以被視為任何家庭的重要資產。

Totally, yes.

完全，是的。

Yes, I think to your point of buying Tesla solar is easy because we have one of the lowest prices in the nation now -- in the country.

是的，我認為購買特斯拉太陽能很容易，因為我們現在擁有全國最低的價格之一——在全國。

And just a little bit of a story there, we were able to lower our prices because our cost of acquisition is now less than 1/4 of any typical solar company.

只是一個故事，我們能夠降低我們的價格，因為我們的收購成本現在不到任何典型太陽能公司的 1/4。

We don't do sales.

我們不做銷售。

Yes.

是的。

These are online sales, online orders.

這些是在線銷售，在線訂單。

There's no advertising, no marketing and no sales force.

沒有廣告，沒有營銷，也沒有銷售人員。

But would you rather pay for power or for marketing?

但你更願意為權力買單還是為營銷買單？

Yes.

是的。

I'd say you'd rather pay for the product.

我會說你寧願為產品買單。

Totally, yes, yes.

完全，是的，是的。

All right, that's great.

好吧，那太好了。

On solar, we want to simplify the fulfillment process with a goal of really fast order-to-install time lines.

在太陽能方面，我們希望以真正快速的訂單到安裝時間線為目標來簡化履行流程。

We've done many residential installs with a single visit to a customer's home because the standard sizes are reduced complexity.

由於標準尺寸降低了複雜性，我們通過一次訪問客戶家就完成了許多住宅安裝。

We've also been working with cities and counties to submit generic permits that follow a template rather than customizing for every situation because...

我們還一直在與市縣合作，提交遵循模板的通用許可證，而不是針對每種情況進行定制，因為...

Yes.

是的。

Actually, Kunal, this is a really big deal.

實際上，庫納爾，這真的是一件大事。

That's like the ones people won't appreciate.

就像那些人們不會欣賞的那樣。

It's great work by you and the energy team to get those signed because one of the inhibitors, both from a cost and timing standpoint, is getting permit approval from the various regional authorities of -- and we've pioneered a novel approach.

您和能源團隊的出色工作是讓這些簽署，因為從成本和時間的角度來看，其中一個阻礙因素正在獲得各個地區當局的許可批准——我們開創了一種新的方法。

It's sort of an innovation applied to bureaucracy, frankly, which -- interfacing your client innovation to try anything.

坦率地說，這是一種適用於官僚機構的創新，它 - 連接您的客戶創新以嘗試任何事情。

And every button -- a massive number of housing approval authorities to take a generic template as opposed to a custom template, which makes it (inaudible) and in most cases, I think electronic as well.

每個按鈕——大量的住房審批機構採用通用模板而不是自定義模板，這使得它（聽不清）而且在大多數情況下，我認為也是電子的。

So that just makes it simple and low cost and fast to get approval for solar, which is how it should be.

因此，這只是讓太陽能獲得批准變得簡單、低成本和快速，這就是它應該的樣子。

Totally.

完全。

Yes, around 350 cities and counties have accepted it.

是的，大約有350個市縣接受了它。

There is still about...

還有關於...

And more coming.

還有更多。

Many more coming.

更多的人來了。

Yes.

是的。

I think ultimately, it will be almost everyone.

我認為最終，這將是幾乎每個人。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

We have a lot more small cities and counties that have to come online, but that will be our focus in the coming days.

我們有更多的小城市和縣必須上線，但這將是我們未來幾天的重點。

And it's more important as we scale Solar Roof 2 for all our -- deploying energy products needs innovation and in the bureaucracy space, as you said as well.

正如你所說，當我們為我們所有人擴展 Solar Roof 2 時，更重要的是——部署能源產品需要創新和官僚主義空間。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, yes.

我的意思是，是的。

Yes.

是的。

So all these improvements have led us to speed up our customer order-to-installation time lines from months to, in many cases, days.

因此，所有這些改進使我們將客戶從訂單到安裝的時間線從幾個月縮短到，在許多情況下，甚至幾天。

As, Elon, you already said, we've added the option to add Powerwalls to secure people from future power outages.

正如 Elon 所說，我們已經添加了添加 Powerwalls 的選項，以保護人們免受未來停電的影響。

And a home with solar and Powerwall, as was shown in the recent California outages, many homes ran successfully.

正如最近加州停電所顯示的那樣，一個擁有太陽能和 Powerwall 的家庭，許多家庭都成功運行。

Yes.

是的。

You can tell which homes have Powerwall because that's where all the light -- that's where the lights are on.

你可以分辨出哪些家庭有 Powerwall，因為那裡是所有燈的地方——那裡是燈亮的地方。

Yes, if you look at the neighborhood, it's like oh, there's -- everywhere but a few lights around and those are usually the ones with the Tesla Powerwall.

是的，如果你看看附近，就像哦，到處都是——但周圍只有幾盞燈，而那些通常是特斯拉 Powerwall 的燈。

I think -- I don't -- I'm not sure if you're going to mention, but also like the single truck roll.

我想——我不知道——我不確定你是否會提到，但也喜歡單人上門服務。

It's like…

就像是…

Single site visit, yes.

單次現場訪問，是的。

Single-visit install.

單次訪問安裝。

Yes.

是的。

Single-visit install is a big deal.

單次訪問安裝很重要。

We're taking it from where the solar industry would often be 3 visits before the solar was installed and would often take quite a long time to do the installation.

我們從太陽能行業通常會在安裝太陽能之前進行 3 次訪問的地方獲取它，並且通常需要很長時間才能完成安裝。

But we streamlined all of that to a point where, in many cases, it's a single visit to do everything, and it's fast.

但是我們將所有這些都簡化到了一個點，在許多情況下，一次訪問就可以完成所有事情，而且速度很快。

So it's like minimize disruptions to the homeowner.

所以這就像盡量減少對房主的干擾。

And ordering solar is literally 1 click.

訂購太陽能實際上是一鍵點擊。

You can order solar for your house in less than 1 minute.

您可以在不到 1 分鐘的時間內為您的房子訂購太陽能。

So...

所以...

Yes.

是的。

And then we've done the same thing in the commercial solar space.

然後我們在商業太陽能領域做了同樣的事情。

Nobody thought of putting a simple website with order -- with prices for commercial solar.

沒有人想過要建立一個簡單的網站，上面有商業太陽能的價格。

We do that now.

我們現在就這樣做。

And we've seen a good response from small businesses wanting to go solar.

我們已經看到想要使用太陽能的小企業的良好反應。

And by removing the complexity of long-term contracts and simplifying the terms and conditions, the commercial solar sales process would typically take 6 months is now taking a couple of weeks.

通過消除長期合同的複雜性並簡化條款和條件，商業太陽能銷售過程通常需要 6 個月，現在需要幾週時間。

So the same thing that we've done in residential, we want to expand more and more in commercial as well.

因此，就像我們在住宅領域所做的一樣，我們也希望越來越多地擴展到商業領域。

So all in all, the road map for energy products from solar, Solar Roof, Powerwall to Megapack is super exciting.

總而言之，從太陽能、太陽能屋頂、Powerwall 到 Megapack 的能源產品路線圖非常令人興奮。

And I expect Tesla Energy to become a larger part of our overall ecosystem as we leverage and integrate the same competencies from our vehicle business.

隨著我們利用和整合我們汽車業務的相同能力，我預計特斯拉能源將成為我們整個生態系統的重要組成部分。

The future is pretty exciting for Tesla Energy.

特斯拉能源的未來非常令人興奮。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks again.

再次感謝。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

So first, we're going to take some questions from say.com.

因此，首先，我們將從 say.com 提出一些問題。

We will, this time, take questions from both institutional investors as well as retail investors.

這一次，我們將回答機構投資者和散戶投資者的問題。

So the first question from institutional investors is, what are the opportunities for Tesla to create demand?

那麼機構投資者的第一個問題是，特斯拉創造需求的機會是什麼？

Is word-of-mouth still sufficient?

口碑還夠嗎？

Or should we expect to see Tesla commence advertising in the near future?

還是我們應該期待看到特斯拉在不久的將來開始做廣告？

Yes.

是的。

What we're seeing is that word-of-mouth is more than enough to drive our demand in excess of production.

我們所看到的是，口碑足以推動我們的需求超過生產。

We have no plans to advertise at this time.

我們目前沒有做廣告的計劃。

Obviously, at some point in the future, we may do advertising, not in the traditional sense but more to just inform people and make sure that they are aware of the product, but not engage in the typical trickery that is commonplace in advertising.

顯然，在未來的某個時候，我們可能會做廣告，而不是傳統意義上的廣告，而更多是為了告知人們並確保他們了解產品，而不是從事廣告中常見的典型詭計。

Okay.

好的。

The next question from institutional investors.

機構投資者的下一個問題。

Elon, other than robotaxis and autonomous vehicle capabilities, when you look over the next 3 years, what are you most excited about at Tesla that you believe investors don't understand or have missed?

Elon，除了機器人出租車和自動駕駛汽車的能力，當你展望未來 3 年時，你認為投資者不了解或錯過的特斯拉最讓你興奮的是什麼？

I think there's generally a lack of understanding or appreciation for the growth of Tesla Energy, as Kunal was talking about.

正如庫納爾所說，我認為人們普遍對特斯拉能源的增長缺乏理解或欣賞。

In the long term, I expect Tesla Energy to be of the same -- roughly the same size as Tesla's automotive sector or business.

從長遠來看，我預計特斯拉能源公司的規模將與特斯拉的汽車部門或業務大致相同。

This is the most underappreciated.

這是最被低估的。

I think it could be bigger, but it's certainly of a similar magnitude, Tesla solar, meaning Tesla solar plus battery stuff is -- to Tesla Energy is, I think, the least appreciated element.

我認為它可能會更大，但肯定是類似的量級，特斯拉太陽能，這意味著特斯拉太陽能加上電池的東西——對特斯拉能源來說，我認為是最不受歡迎的元素。

And part of it is like for -- I don't know, for about 18 months, almost 2 years, we had to divert a tremendous amount of resources -- well, we had to basically take resources from everywhere else in the company and apply them to the Model 3 production, fixing the Model 3 production ramp and simplifying the design of Model 3.

部分原因是——我不知道，在大約 18 個月，差不多 2 年的時間裡，我們不得不轉移大量資源——好吧，我們基本上必須從公司其他地方獲取資源，並且將它們應用到 Model 3 生產中，修復 Model 3 生產斜坡並簡化 Model 3 的設計。

So for about 1.5 years, we unfortunately stripped Tesla Energy of engineering and other resources and even took the cell production lines that were meant for Powerwall and Powerpack and redirected them to the car because we didn't have enough cells.

所以在大約 1.5 年的時間裡，我們不幸地剝奪了 Tesla Energy 的工程和其他資源，甚至拿走了原本用於 Powerwall 和 Powerpack 的電池生產線，並將它們重新定向到汽車上，因為我們沒有足夠的電池。

Now that we feel that Model 3 production is in a good place and headed to a great place, we've restored resources to Tesla solar and storage.

既然我們覺得 Model 3 的生產情況不錯，而且進展順利，我們已經恢復了特斯拉太陽能和存儲的資源。

And so that's going to be, I think, the really crazy growth for as far as future as I can imagine.

因此，我認為，就我所能想像的未來而言，這將是真正瘋狂的增長。

But we had to do it because if we didn't solve Model 3, Tesla wouldn't survive.

但我們必須這樣做，因為如果我們不解決 Model 3，特斯拉就無法生存。

So unfortunately, that shorted pretty much the other parts of the company.

不幸的是，這幾乎使公司的其他部分做空。

But it would be difficult for me to overstate the degree to which I think Tesla Energy is going to be a major part of Tesla's activity in the future.

但我很難誇大我認為特斯拉能源將在多大程度上成為特斯拉未來活動的主要部分。

And, I mean, Tesla's mission from the beginning has been to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy.

而且，我的意思是，特斯拉的使命從一開始就是加速可持續能源的出現。

That means sustainable energy generation and sustainable energy consumption in the form of vehicles, electric vehicles.

這意味著以汽車、電動汽車的形式產生可持續的能源和可持續的能源消耗。

And I think one of the stats we'll publish in the future along with our vehicle production is that how much sustainable energy Tesla produced or Tesla customers produced with our products.

我認為我們未來將與我們的汽車生產一起發布的統計數據之一是特斯拉生產了多少可持續能源或特斯拉客戶使用我們的產品生產了多少。

And I think you'll see that we're producing about the same or comparable amounts of sustainable energy as are consumed in the car -- in our cars.

我想你會看到我們生產的可持續能源與汽車消耗的可持續能源數量大致相同或相當。在我們的汽車中。

Because for the longest time, the rebuttal against electric cars are like oh, don't they use dirty power from coal?

因為一直以來，對電動汽車的反駁就像哦，他們不是用煤炭的骯髒動力嗎？

Well, no, we're solar-powered.

嗯，不，我們是太陽能的。

And that's -- obviously, there are solar power companies, not just Tesla.

那就是——顯然，有太陽能公司，而不僅僅是特斯拉。

But you have to sell sustainable generation and sustainable consumption, and that's what we're doing, and we'll do more of it.

但是你必須銷售可持續發電和可持續消費，這就是我們正在做的事情，我們會做更多的事情。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The next question from investor is related to Full Self-Driving attach rates.

投資者的下一個問題與完全自動駕駛附加費率有關。

Given that self-driving regulations will evolve unevenly in different markets, would you consider selling modules individually, for example, Navigating on Autopilot or Summon versus current strategy of selling the package as a whole in order to encourage adoption and getting more data?

鑑於自動駕駛法規在不同市場的發展不平衡，您是否會考慮單獨銷售模塊，例如，在 Autopilot 或 Summon 上導航，而不是當前將軟件包作為一個整體銷售以鼓勵採用和獲取更多數據的策略？

I think we'll continue to sell it in a bundled fashion.

我想我們會繼續以捆綁的方式出售它。

I mean, any Tesla that you buy already has basic Autopilot included.

我的意思是，您購買的任何特斯拉都已經包含基本的自動駕駛儀。

So I think that really is a pretty major advantage relative to other cars.

所以我認為與其他汽車相比，這確實是一個非常重要的優勢。

And then the next step will be Full Self-Driving with Smart Summon being kind of the beginning of that.

然後下一步將是完全自動駕駛，智能召喚是它的開始。

And obviously, we kind of have the 2 sides of it with highway Autopilot and we've got the Summon, which is sort of low speed and talking less, that kind of thing.

很明顯，我們有高速公路自動駕駛儀的兩個方面，我們有召喚，它有點低速，說話少，那種東西。

Now we need to -- we're working on solving that intermediate portion, which is traffic lights and stop signs and navigating through windy roads and -- windy, narrow roads and suburban neighborhoods.

現在我們需要 - 我們正在努力解決中間部分，即交通信號燈和停車標誌，並在多風的道路上導航，以及 - 多風、狹窄的道路和郊區社區。

That's the focus right now.

這就是現在的重點。

And you're going to want it all, right?

你會想要這一切，對吧？

I think it's -- yes, it's something that everyone's going to want, for sure.

我認為這是 - 是的，這是每個人都會想要的，當然。

And as I said before, the point at which we're able to upload the software enabling a Tesla to become a robotaxi, expect to have that from a functionality standpoint by the end of next year.

正如我之前所說，我們能夠上傳使特斯拉成為自動駕駛出租車的軟件，從功能的角度來看，預計到明年年底就能實現。

But in terms of the functionality -- so basic functionality is aspirationally end of this year, but reliable enough that you do not need to pay attention, in our opinion, by the end of next year.

但就功能而言——所以基本功能是今年年底的理想，但足夠可靠，我們認為明年年底之前你不需要關注。

And we would need -- the acceptance by regulatory authorities will vary by jurisdiction.

我們需要 - 監管機構的接受程度因司法管轄區而異。

That transition, that sort of flipping of the switch from a car that is from not robotaxi to robotaxi, I think will probably be the biggest step-change increase in asset value in history by far.

這種轉變，那種從非機器人出租車到機器人出租車的轉換，我認為這可能是迄今為止資產價值的最大階梯式增長。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The next question is with respect to Model Y, what is your latest expectations for launch timing?

下一個問題是關於 Model Y，你對發佈時間的最新期望是什麼？

Do you anticipate any Model 3 production downtime at Fremont during the launch?

您預計在發布期間弗里蒙特工廠會出現 Model 3 停產嗎？

And how should Model Y gross margin percent look compared to Model 3 gross margin?

與 Model 3 的毛利率相比，Model Y 的毛利率百分比應該如何？

Well, we've talked about the launch timing.

好吧，我們已經談到了發射時間。

What really matters is the timing to volume production, where volume production is some number in excess of 1,000 units per week.

真正重要的是量產的時機，其中量產的數量超過每週 1,000 台。

And we're confident of reaching that point no later than the middle of 2020.

我們有信心在 2020 年年中之前達到這一點。

The -- yes, so from an interference standpoint, we do not expect it to interfere.

- 是的，所以從乾擾的角度來看，我們不希望它會干擾。

Yes.

是的。

The body line is separate.

身體線是分開的。

The paint line is.

油漆線是。

So basically, we do not expect it to interfere with Model 3. We do not expect any downtime.

所以基本上，我們預計它不會干擾 Model 3。我們預計不會有任何停機時間。

From a margin standpoint, Zach, do you want to...

從利潤的角度來看，扎克，你想...

Yes.

是的。

From a margin perspective, we're expecting ASPs for Model Y to be slightly higher than they are for Model 3. And this is common in the industry between sedans and CUVs.

從利潤率的角度來看，我們預計 Model Y 的 ASP 將略高於 Model 3。這在轎車和 CUV 之間的行業中很常見。

The part that we've worked very hard on is controlling the cost of Model Y. And our steady-state forecast for that program puts the cost at roughly equivalent to Model 3. So there will be ramp inefficiencies at first, of course, as we launch the program.

我們非常努力的部分是控制 Model Y 的成本。我們對該項目的穩態預測使成本大致相當於 Model 3。因此，當然，首先會出現效率低下的問題，因為我們啟動程序。

But as it stabilizes with steady-state production, we do expect that it will be a higher-margin product.

但隨著它隨著穩定生產而趨於穩定，我們確實預計它將成為一種利潤率更高的產品。

It's something that we're very excited about within the company.

這是我們在公司內部非常興奮的事情。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And the last question from institutional investors is, can you provide an update on FSD package attach rates?

機構投資者的最後一個問題是，您能否提供有關 FSD 套餐附加費率的最新信息？

As FSD attach rates improve, will you let the financial benefits manifest in higher gross margins for company and shareholders?

隨著 FSD 附加率的提高，您是否會讓財務利益體現在公司和股東更高的毛利率上？

Or will you lower the price to drive delivery volume?

或者你會降低價格來推動交付量嗎？

I don't think we're going to need to lower the price of FSD.

我認為我們不需要降低 FSD 的價格。

But I expect the price of FSD to increase slowly as the functionality and capability improve.

但我預計 FSD 的價格會隨著功能和能力的提高而緩慢上漲。

That's -- that is unchanged.

那是——那是不變的。

Anything you want to add?

你有什麼要補充的嗎？

I mean, our cash gross margin obviously is higher than our GAAP gross margin because of unrecognized revenue associated with FSD attach rates.

我的意思是，由於與 FSD 附加費率相關的未確認收入，我們的現金毛利率顯然高於我們的 GAAP 毛利率。

So that's why I think it's in the order of $600 million or in the order of $0.5 billion...

所以這就是為什麼我認為它在 6 億美元或 5 億美元的數量級......

$500 million.

5億美元。

$0.5 billion of unrecognized revenue.

5 億美元的未確認收入。

So if you were to include that, which would obviously be recognized as we release the Full Self-Driving functionality, but actual gross margin that we're operating on, on a cash basis today is higher than the GAAP gross margin.

因此，如果您將其包括在內，這顯然會在我們發布全自動駕駛功能時得到認可，但我們目前以現金為基礎運營的實際毛利率高於 GAAP 毛利率。

Okay.

好的。

Let's now go to questions from retail investors.

現在讓我們回答散戶投資者的問題。

The first question from Craig is, can you provide more detail on the DeepScale acquisition, its importance and whether Tesla is still on track to recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs with automatic driving on city streets by the end of 2019?

克雷格的第一個問題是，您能否提供更多關於收購 DeepScale 的細節、其重要性以及特斯拉是否仍有望在 2019 年底前通過自動駕駛在城市街道上識別和響應交通信號燈和停車標誌？

Sure.

當然。

DeepScale is a very tiny company.

DeepScale 是一家非常小的公司。

It's basically about 12 people.

基本上是12個人左右。

And it's -- they have some expertise in increasing the efficiency of neural net for a given amount of compute, which I think is helpful.

而且，他們在為給定計算量提高神經網絡效率方面擁有一些專業知識，我認為這很有幫助。

So it remains to be seen.

所以還有待觀察。

But the intent behind what was a very tiny acquisition, was to, I think, slightly accelerate FSD.

但我認為，這次很小的收購背後的意圖是稍微加速 FSD。

That's the intent.

這就是意圖。

And hopefully, that will turn out to be true.

希望這將成為現實。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

The second question, we've already answered regarding Model Y delivery.

第二個問題，我們已經回答了關於 Model Y 交付的問題。

So we'll jump to the third question from Craig.

所以我們將跳到克雷格的第三個問題。

News reports suggest that Gigafactory 3 already -- may already be producing Model 3s for Chinese markets.

新聞報導表明，Gigafactory 3 已經——可能已經在為中國市場生產 Model 3。

Could you please update us on the production expectations for Giga 3 and confirm purpose of the second building now being built?

您能否向我們介紹 Giga 3 的生產預期並確認正在建造的第二座建築的用途？

Is that for battery production as suggested by some press outlets?

是否如某些媒體所建議的那樣用於電池生產？

Yes.

是的。

We're in trial production of Model 3. We're basically sending cars through the system, and we're ramping rapidly.

我們正在試生產 Model 3。我們基本上是通過該系統發送汽車，而且我們正在快速增長。

We're expecting to hit volume production in a few months essentially.

我們預計將在幾個月內實現批量生產。

The second building is, indeed, for battery and module production.

第二座建築確實是用於電池和模塊生產。

And that's probably going to -- because there's obviously a bunch more construction beyond what's already there because obviously, we need to build out facilities for Model Y production at Shanghai as well.

這可能會——因為顯然除了已經存在的東西之外還有更多的建設，因為很明顯，我們還需要在上海建造用於生產 Model Y 的設施。

Okay.

好的。

The next question from retail investors is, can you update us on the initial results of Tesla car insurance?

散戶投資者的下一個問題是，您能否向我們介紹一下特斯拉汽車保險的初步結果？

Is there a time line to expand it nationally and internationally?

是否有在國內和國際上擴展它的時間表？

Yes, I can take that.

是的，我可以接受。

So far, we've launched Tesla Insurance in California.

到目前為止，我們已經在加州推出了特斯拉保險。

I have to say that I'm quite pleased by the results so far.

我不得不說我對迄今為止的結果感到非常滿意。

The take rate, as measured by quote-to-purchase conversioning are quite high by industry standards.

根據行業標準，通過報價到購買轉換來衡量的獲取率相當高。

And we expect that this will only increase as folks understand the products better and receive some of the known price increases coming from some of the standard carriers that they'll come to us and look for an alternative.

我們預計，隨著人們更好地了解產品並從他們會來找我們並尋找替代品的一些標準運營商那裡獲得一些已知的價格上漲，這種情況只會增加。

There's a bunch of work happening behind the scenes on improving the product, particularly the purchase flow, to make sure it's the best product experience for our customers.

幕後有大量工作在改進產品，特別是購買流程，以確保它為我們的客戶提供最佳產品體驗。

And we're also working very hard to get other states lined up in the States and then also to launch in some countries internationally.

我們也在非常努力地讓其他州在美國排隊，然後也在國際上的一些國家推出。

So we're not able to provide specific time lines on those changes, but we're definitely working as quickly as we can given how well received Tesla Insurance has been in California.

因此，我們無法就這些變化提供具體的時間表，但鑑於特斯拉保險在加利福尼亞的受歡迎程度，我們肯定會盡快開展工作。

Yes.

是的。

I think it also has a secondary effect of ensuring that the third-party providers of insurance provide reasonable rates to our customers.

我認為它還具有確保第三方保險提供商向我們的客戶提供合理費率的次要效果。

I completely agree.

我完全同意。

The goal here is not to have an outsized market share of insurance.

這裡的目標不是要擁有超大的保險市場份額。

It's just to make sure that customers have an alternative to other companies as well if those rates are high.

這只是為了確保如果這些費率很高，客戶也可以選擇其他公司。

I mean ultimately, what makes the most sense for total cost of ownership perspective is for folks to have good pricing on their insurance.

我的意思是，從總體擁有成本的角度來看，最有意義的是人們對他們的保險有一個好的定價。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Okay.

好的。

And the last question from retail investors.

散戶投資者的最後一個問題。

There's skepticism regarding your comment that the Full Self-Driving will be feature-complete by year-end, like resulting from confusion about feature-complete, what feature-complete means.

有人懷疑您關於完全自動駕駛將在年底前完成功能的評論，例如由於對功能完成的混淆，功能完成的含義。

Could you please talk to this and perhaps give us a list of features that establish the FSD baseline?

您能否談談這個問題，或者給我們一份建立 FSD 基線的功能列表？

Feature-complete, I mean, it's able -- the car's able to drive from one's house to work, most likely without interventions.

功能齊全，我的意思是，它能夠——汽車能夠從家裡開車去上班，很可能不需要干預。

So it will still be supervised, but it will be able to drive -- it will fill in the gap from low-speed autonomy -- we've got low-speed autonomy with Summon.

所以它仍然會受到監督，但它將能夠駕駛——它將填補低速自主的空白——我們通過 Summon 獲得了低速自主。

We've got high-speed autonomy on the highway.

我們在高速公路上擁有高速自主權。

And we've got intermediate speed autonomy, which really just means traffic lights and stop signs.

而且我們擁有中速自主權，這實際上只意味著紅綠燈和停車標誌。

So feature-complete means it's most likely able to do that without intervention, without human intervention, but it would still be supervised.

因此，功能完整意味著它很可能無需干預、無需人工干預即可做到這一點，但仍會受到監督。

And I've gone through this time line before, I think, several times.

我想，我以前曾多次經歷過這條時間線。

But it is often misconstrued.

但它經常被誤解。

But there's like -- there's 3 major levels to autonomy.

但是就像 - 自治有 3 個主要級別。

There's the car being able to be autonomous but requiring supervision and intervention at times; that's feature-complete.

汽車可以自動駕駛，但有時需要監督和乾預；這是功能齊全的。

Then there's -- and it doesn't mean like every scenario, everywhere on earth including every corner case.

然後是 - 它並不意味著像每個場景一樣，在地球上的任何地方，包括每個角落案例。

It means most of the time.

這意味著大部分時間。

And then there's another level which is that we think it's -- that from a Tesla standpoint, we think the car is safe enough to be driven without supervision.

然後還有另一個層面，我們認為是——從特斯拉的角度來看，我們認為這輛車足夠安全，可以在沒有監督的情況下駕駛。

Then the third level would be that regulators are also convinced that the car can be driven autonomously without supervision.

然後第三個層次是監管機構也相信汽車可以在沒有監督的情況下自動駕駛。

Those are the 3 different levels.

這些是3個不同的級別。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

Sherrine, we can now go to the questions from analysts.

雪琳，我們現在可以回答分析師的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Dan Galves with Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Dan Galves。

I was hoping that you could give us a little bit more color on sizing up the key factors in the auto gross margin improvement from Q3 to Q2.

我希望你能給我們更多的色彩來評估從第三季度到第二季度汽車毛利率改善的關鍵因素。

Particularly, you mentioned some nonrecurring items in the letter.

特別是，您在信中提到了一些非經常性項目。

And also, should investors be prepared for any meaningful headwinds as the China plant comes up but isn't at full production yet?

此外，隨著中國工廠的投產但尚未全面投產，投資者是否應該為任何有意義的逆風做好準備？

Yes.

是的。

I can provide a couple of comments on that.

我可以就此發表幾點意見。

So on your final -- on your last question about China headwinds, there are always ramp inefficiencies when we launch a new factory.

所以在你最後一個關於中國逆風的問題上，當我們啟動新工廠時，總是會出現效率低下的問題。

So we don't expect China to be any different than that.

所以我們認為中國不會有任何不同。

So there will be some that we experience in Q4.

所以我們會在第四季度經歷一些。

The amount of that is hard to forecast given that it's a different type of factory design than we did here in Fremont.

鑑於它與我們在弗里蒙特的工廠設計類型不同，因此很難預測其數量。

We're working very hard to limit the ramp inefficiencies, but certainly, fixed cost absorption and having all of the labor ready as we ramp will have an impact on Q4.

我們正在非常努力地限制坡道效率低下，但可以肯定的是，固定成本吸收和在我們坡道時準備好所有勞動力將對第四季度產生影響。

And on the margin improvement, a couple of things there for auto gross margin.

在利潤率提高方面，汽車毛利率有幾件事。

As I mentioned in my opening remarks, S and X average selling prices increased from Q2 to Q3.

正如我在開場白中提到的，S 和 X 的平均售價從第二季度到第三季度有所上漲。

I mean that's important.

我的意思是這很重要。

As I mentioned in the last earnings call, the prior powertrain versions of S and X provided significant headwinds on average selling price for that product in the quarter.

正如我在上次財報電話會議中提到的那樣，之前的 S 和 X 動力總成版本為本季度該產品的平均售價帶來了巨大的阻力。

We've also done a bunch of work as a company to become more targeted in how we adjust pricing on our products and how we optimize that based on local supply and demand.

作為一家公司，我們還做了很多工作，以便在我們如何調整產品定價以及如何根據當地供需優化定價方面更有針對性。

And so I think there's a bunch of good work from the team on that in Q3, which flowed through on our financials.

因此，我認為團隊在第三季度在這方面做了很多出色的工作，這些工作流向了我們的財務狀況。

And cost reduction has just remained a huge focus for us.

降低成本一直是我們關注的重點。

It's hard to underestimate how much of that has been ingrained in the culture of the company.

很難低估這在公司文化中根深蒂固的程度。

And Jerome and his team have done absolutely tremendous work there.

杰羅姆和他的團隊在那裡做了大量的工作。

So on every line item of our cost, whether it be manufacturing, labor, warehousing, logistics, there's just a tremendous amount of good work that happened there.

因此，在我們成本的每個項目上，無論是製造、勞動力、倉儲、物流，都有大量的好工作發生在那裡。

Specifically on nonrecurring items, to that, I'll note one being the Smart Summon revenue recognition.

特別是在非經常性項目上，我會注意到其中之一是智能召喚收入確認。

Debatable whether that's considered recurring or not given that we continue to expect to release more features and release revenue associated with that in the future.

鑑於我們繼續期望在未來發布更多功能並發布與此相關的收入，這是否被認為是經常性的存在爭議。

But we did want to call that out specifically and the dollar value around that as we know there's been speculation around the impact for the quarter.

但我們確實想特別指出這一點以及圍繞它的美元價值，因為我們知道圍繞該季度的影響存在猜測。

And foreign exchange is just something that, since we don't hedge, it has an impact.

外匯只是一種東西，因為我們不進行對沖，所以它會產生影響。

And it comes and goes every quarter.

它每個季度都來來去去。

So we'll have to see if the quarter plays out the effect that, that has.

所以我們必須看看這個季度是否會產生這種影響。

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

This is George Dailey on for Adam.

這是亞當的喬治戴利。

So first question.

所以第一個問題。

Is it a fair assumption to say that once the Shanghai Gigafactory has ramped, the Model 3s sold in China for China could be the most profitable car you sell, even more profitable than the average car made at Fremont right now?

如果說一旦上海超級工廠建成投產，在中國為中國銷售的 Model 3 可能是您銷售的最賺錢的汽車，甚至比目前在弗里蒙特生產的普通汽車更有利可圖嗎？

That one is also difficult to forecast.

那也很難預測。

It's a good question.

這是個好問題。

At least based on the plans that we have now, we're expecting it to be roughly in line with where Model 3 is coming out of our Fremont factory.

至少根據我們現在的計劃，我們預計它與 Model 3 從我們弗里蒙特工廠的出廠位置大致一致。

There's still a bunch of work around cost optimization in the factory after we launch with ramp inefficiencies, and we need to work those costs down.

在我們以效率低下的情況推出後，工廠仍有大量成本優化工作，我們需要降低這些成本。

And then there will be work to land on what the right mix is within the country and where we ultimately land on the product offering.

然後將努力確定國內的正確組合以及我們最終在產品供應上的位置。

So I think just for now, it's safe to assume that it's roughly in line with the margins that you see coming out of the Fremont facility.

所以我認為，就目前而言，可以安全地假設它與你從弗里蒙特工廠看到的利潤大致一致。

Great.

偉大的。

And if I could just sneak in one more.

如果我能再偷偷溜進去一個。

So it's been over 7 years since you launched the Model S, and many OEMs seem that they don't have the same commitment to battery electric vehicles that you do, and many don't even offer one right now.

因此，距離您推出 Model S 已經 7 年多了，許多 OEM 似乎對電池電動汽車的承諾與您不同，而且很多現在甚至都沒有提供。

As your business model proves to be more sustainable, could we potentially see Tesla maybe supplying other OEMs with batteries or software, complete electric vehicle architectures maybe in an effort to accelerate mass adoption of sustainable transport?

隨著您的商業模式被證明更具可持續性，我們是否有可能看到特斯拉可能會向其他原始設備製造商提供電池或軟件、完整的電動汽車架構，以加速可持續交通的大規模採用？

Yes.

是的。

I think there's -- it will be consistent with the mission of Tesla to help other car companies with electric vehicles on the battery and powertrain fronts, also in other fronts.

我認為這與特斯拉的使命是一致的，即在電池和動力總成方面幫助其他汽車公司生產電動汽車，在其他方面也是如此。

So it's something we're open to.

所以這是我們願意接受的。

As I think a lot of people know, we open-source our patents so that those would not serve as an obstacle to the adoption of electric vehicles or solar power or stationary storage.

我想很多人都知道，我們將我們的專利開源，這樣這些專利就不會成為採用電動汽車、太陽能或固定存儲的障礙。

And we're definitely open to supplying batteries and powertrains and perhaps other things to other car companies.

我們絕對願意向其他汽車公司提供電池和動力系統，也許還有其他東西。

Our next question comes from Maynard Um with Macquarie.

我們的下一個問題來自 Maynard Um 和 Macquarie。

I have 2 questions.

我有 2 個問題。

The first is software Version 10 added a lot of functionality that's never really been available in a car before through an over-the-air update.

首先是軟件版本 10 添加了許多以前通過無線更新在汽車中從未真正可用的功能。

In your shareholder letter, you say that this lays an important foundation for things to come.

在您的股東信中，您說這為未來的發展奠定了重要基礎。

Can you just talk about the longer-term plan or your vision for the direction of this software platform and if you have plans to monetize that opportunity?

您能否談談長期計劃或您對該軟件平台方向的願景，以及您是否有計劃利用該機會獲利？

Well, the goal for the infotainment system is to say what's the most amount of fun you can have in a car, which I think is -- I don't think other car companies really think about it that way.

好吧，信息娛樂系統的目標是說出您在汽車中所能獲得的最大樂趣，我認為是——我不認為其他汽車公司真的這麼想。

But it's really what is the most fun -- how can we maximize the enjoyment in a car such that it's not some -- just some sort of transport utility device with no soul and no character.

但這確實是最有趣的——我們如何才能最大限度地享受汽車的樂趣，而不是什麼——只是某種沒有靈魂和個性的交通工具。

We want it to be fun and entertaining in reference to something that you love.

我們希望它與您喜愛的事物有關，具有趣味性和娛樂性。

And so just I think there's a lot one can do because people are generally spending a couple of hours a day on average in the car.

所以我認為人們可以做很多事情，因為人們通常平均每天要花幾個小時在車上。

And so that's pretty high percentage of the waking time, outside of like showering and going to the bathroom and that kind of thing.

因此，除了淋浴和去洗手間之類的事情之外，這佔醒著時間的比例相當高。

It's just a lot of time.

這只是很多時間。

And I guess maybe there's some way to monetize it but we haven't really thought about it that way.

我想也許有某種方法可以將其貨幣化，但我們並沒有真正考慮過這種方式。

But our goal is just to make -- try to say what is the most fun you could possibly have while you're in your car.

但我們的目標只是讓——試著說出你在車裡時可能獲得的最大樂趣。

And obviously, as autonomy gets better and better, that is going to become much more of an entertainment opportunity.

顯然，隨著自主性越來越好，這將成為一種娛樂機會。

So we'll see where that leads.

所以我們會看看這會導致什麼。

But that's what we're after.

但這就是我們所追求的。

It's our goal.

這是我們的目標。

Great.

偉大的。

And then can you help us -- help frame for us the opportunity for emission credits as the standards in the EU start to tighten next year?

然後你能幫助我們嗎——隨著明年歐盟標准開始收緊，為我們提供排放信用的機會？

And I'm not looking for an exact number but maybe more to understand whether this is an opportunity in the tens of millions, hundreds of millions, billions.

而且我不是在尋找一個確切的數字，而是可能更多地了解這是否是數千萬、數億、數十億的機會。

Anything to help us frame the opportunity and also whether you have any ongoing dialogues with OEMs.

任何可以幫助我們把握機會的事情，以及您是否與 OEM 進行任何持續對話。

We certainly have ongoing dialogues with OEMs.

我們當然與原始設備製造商進行了持續的對話。

But as you see from our financials, the tax credits or emissions credits are not forming a very big percentage of our revenue.

但正如您從我們的財務數據中看到的那樣，稅收抵免或排放抵免在我們的收入中並沒有佔很大比例。

They're -- I mean, Zach, what was the last quarter?

他們是——我的意思是，扎克，上個季度是什麼時候？

It was really quite...

真的很...

It was over $100 million.

超過1億美元。

But out of like several billions.

但出的像幾十億。

So it's like 1.5%.

所以大概是1.5%。

It's not exactly a giant percentage.

這並不是一個巨大的百分比。

And obviously, those credits in the U.S. are really not -- a credit situation not particularly strong for obvious reasons, which we think is not great for the future.

顯然，美國的這些信貸實際上並不是——由於顯而易見的原因，信貸狀況並不是特別強勁，我們認為這對未來不利。

But anyway, that's the way it is.

但無論如何，事情就是這樣。

In Europe, it's much more of a sensitivity to the environment.

在歐洲，它對環境更加敏感。

But we're not counting on some big windfall.

但我們並不指望一些大的意外之財。

Maybe it will be good.

也許會很好。

Maybe not.

也許不會。

We don't know.

我們不知道。

But we're not counting on it.

但我們並不指望它。

Yes.

是的。

I think that's a fair way to characterize it.

我認為這是描述它的一種公平方式。

I mean our expectation is that credit revenues will generally increase with time, not necessarily increasing every quarter.

我的意思是我們的預期是信貸收入通常會隨著時間的推移而增加，而不一定是每個季度都增加。

We did increase from Q2 to Q3.

我們確實從第二季度到第三季度有所增加。

But there's a certain amount of them that are baseline based on the number of cars that we build and deliver.

但是根據我們製造和交付的汽車數量，其中有一定數量的基準。

And there's others that are deal-specific, and those deals can happen at any point.

還有其他特定於交易的交易，這些交易可能隨時發生。

So we're constantly in conversations with automakers about this.

因此，我們一直在與汽車製造商就此進行對話。

But within the company, we manage the business without counting on any profit or cash flows from regulatory credit.

但在公司內部，我們管理業務時不依賴監管信貸帶來的任何利潤或現金流。

And we view it as purely incremental, and my recommendation is that everyone should view it that way.

我們認為它純粹是增量的，我的建議是每個人都應該這樣看待它。

It's just an extra that comes through.

這只是一個額外的東西。

It's obviously a good thing to do that would help accelerate the advent of sustainable energy for sure.

這樣做顯然有助於加速可持續能源的出現，這顯然是一件好事。

But it's -- and like I say, I think outside the U.S., there seems to be a strong push in that direction, which is great.

但它是——就像我說的，我認為在美國以外的地方，似乎有一個強大的推動力，這很棒。

And probably within the U.S., that over time will become a strong push.

可能在美國，隨著時間的推移，這將成為一個強大的推動力。

Our next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

It's Edison on for Emmanuel.

這是愛迪生為伊曼紐爾。

First, there's been a lot of activity in the industry about electric pickups lately.

首先，最近業界有很多關於電動皮卡的活動。

Just curious if you have any updates, any more insights you can share on the one that you're about to put out later.

只是好奇您是否有任何更新，您可以在稍後發布的內容上分享更多見解。

And then secondly, there was a comment, I think, earlier about the order book quarter to date.

其次，我認為早些時候有一個關於迄今為止的訂單簿的評論。

Can you just clarify what was the baseline?

你能澄清一下基線是什麼嗎？

And any insights about the geographic mix of that?

以及有關其地理組合的任何見解？

Yes.

是的。

We -- I think we've said enough about the Tesla side of the truck.

我們——我認為我們已經對卡車的特斯拉一側說得夠多了。

We're not going to -- this is not the right forum for us to do product launches.

我們不會——這不是我們進行產品發布的正確論壇。

But I think it'll be -- will be -- I mean, my opinion, and this could be totally wrong, it could be totally out to lunch here, but I think the Tesla side of truck is our best product ever.

但我認為它會 - 將會 - 我的意思是，我的觀點，這可能是完全錯誤的，它可能完全是在這裡吃午飯，但我認為卡車的特斯拉方面是我們有史以來最好的產品。

That's my opinion.

這是我的意見。

Yes.

是的。

The demand is not -- it seems to be strong.

需求不是——它似乎很強勁。

So we should be production-constrained this quarter.

因此，本季度我們應該受到生產限制。

Yes, that's right.

是的，這是正確的。

The baseline from the comment earlier that I made was looking at this point in the quarter in Q2.

我之前發表的評論的基線是在第二季度的這個季度。

And order rates are strong, I would say, in all markets.

我想說，所有市場的訂單率都很高。

I think we're very encouraged as a team at the reception of our products.

我認為我們作為一個團隊在接收我們的產品時受到了極大的鼓舞。

As more and more people become aware of electric vehicles, I think competitive products help raise that awareness, and overall interest is just increasing.

隨著越來越多的人開始意識到電動汽車，我認為有競爭力的產品有助於提高這種意識，整體興趣也在增加。

So our focus internally is to increase production as fast as we can, both with the existing equipment and accelerating our timelines on new capacity.

因此，我們內部的重點是盡可能快地增加產量，既要使用現有設備，又要加快我們的新產能時間表。

We believe that everybody should be driving an electric car.

我們相信每個人都應該駕駛電動汽車。

So we need to move as quickly as we can.

所以我們需要盡快行動。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

But we want to get the Tesla volume to where it is, perhaps somewhere on the order of 1% -- replacing 1% of the global fleet over time.

但我們希望讓特斯拉的銷量達到現在的水平，也許在 1% 左右——隨著時間的推移取代全球 1% 的車隊。

That's, I think -- we think it's pretty big, but that's -- we think that's a good one to aim for, which is about 20 million vehicles a year, just by the way.

那是，我認為——我們認為它相當大，但那是——我們認為這是一個很好的目標，順便說一下，每年大約有 2000 萬輛汽車。

But I do think that the demand for new cars will rise as the world transitions away from combustion engine vehicles.

但我確實認為，隨著世界從內燃機汽車過渡，對新車的需求將會上升。

Just as when people had CRT TVs, there's no cathode ray tube TVs, the sales rate was just basically a replacement rate.

就像人們有 CRT 電視時，沒有陰極射線管電視一樣，銷售率基本上只是一個替換率。

You wouldn't buy -- you wouldn't really buy a new CRT TV unless it was broke.

您不會購買——除非它壞了，否則您不會真正購買新的 CRT 電視。

But when flat screens came out, there was a big step-change in demand because now getting a big flat screen TV was much better than having a small CRT TV.

但是當平板電視問世時，需求發生了巨大的變化，因為現在擁有一台大屏幕平板電視比擁有一台小型 CRT 電視要好得多。

And I think we'll see the same thing with electric vehicles, which is that the -- it's not just people are just buying a car just because their last car wore out.

而且我認為我們會在電動汽車上看到同樣的情況，那就是——不僅僅是人們購買汽車只是因為他們的最後一輛車壞了。

They'll buy an electric car because it's a fundamentally better car, and especially if it's got self-driving.

他們會購買電動汽車，因為它從根本上來說是一輛更好的汽車，尤其是如果它可以自動駕駛的話。

Your next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

您的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

I'd be interested to hear how your…

我很想听聽你的……

We can't hear you.

我們聽不見你的聲音。

It's very quiet so we can't hear you.

它非常安靜，所以我們聽不到你的聲音。

Oh can you hear me well?

哦，你聽得清楚嗎？

It's muffled, but we'll try.

它很悶，但我們會嘗試。

Okay.

好的。

Sorry for that.

對此感到抱歉。

So I was wondering how your thinking has evolved on Model S and Model X. It looks like the deliveries have stayed to the levels of the previous quarter and that Model 3 has indeed cannibalized this demand for these cars quite a big deal.

所以我想知道你對 Model S 和 Model X 的想法是如何演變的。看起來交付量保持在上一季度的水平，而且 Model 3 確實在很大程度上蠶食了對這些汽車的需求。

So how are you thinking about these 2 models going forward?

那麼你如何看待這兩種模式的發展？

What's the strategy you have in mind?

你心目中的策略是什麼？

And then I have a quick follow-up on the Model Y.

然後我對 Model Y 進行了快速跟進。

The Models S and X are really niche -- they're really niche products.

Model S 和 X 確實是小眾產品——它們是真正的小眾產品。

I mean they're very expensive, made in low volume.

我的意思是它們非常昂貴，而且量少。

To be totally frank, we'll keep -- we're continuing to make them more for sentimental reasons than anything else.

坦率地說，我們會繼續——我們繼續製作它們更多是出於情感原因而不是其他任何原因。

They're really of minor importance to the future.

它們對未來的重要性並不大。

Okay.

好的。

That makes sense.

這就說得通了。

And then my question...

然後我的問題...

They're a great car.

他們是一輛很棒的車。

Model S, I think, is by -- if you want to -- I mean Model S literally won Motor Trend's best car ever in history, by the way.

我認為，Model S 是——如果你願意的話——順便說一句，我的意思是 Model S 確實贏得了 Motor Trend 有史以來最好的汽車。

I think if you're out there and you're buying -- and you're sedan-buying and you don't buy a Model S, I think you've just made a mistake, to be totally frank.

我認為，如果你在外面買東西——買轎車卻不買 Model S，坦率地說，我認為你犯了一個錯誤。

It's incredible, especially the new one with variable damping, suspension, hospital operating room, HEPA filter for air purification, the Raven powertrain.

這太不可思議了，尤其是帶有可變阻尼、懸架、醫院手術室、用於空氣淨化的 HEPA 過濾器、Raven 動力系統的新產品。

It's the fastest car in the world.

它是世界上最快的汽車。

And it's just it's so easy to drive.

只是它很容易駕駛。

It makes you feel like Superman driving that car.

它讓你感覺像超人駕駛那輛車。

It's incredibly safe.

它非常安全。

It's just an amazing vehicle.

這只是一輛了不起的車。

And then Model S, I think, it's like the Fabergé egg of cars -- I mean Model X. Model X is like the Fabergé egg of cars.

然後是 Model S，我認為，它就像汽車的 Fabergé 蛋——我的意思是 Model X。Model X 就像汽車的 Fabergé 蛋。

It's -- I mean that's why so many artists and musicians buy the cars.

這是 - 我的意思是這就是為什麼這麼多藝術家和音樂家購買汽車的原因。

It's an art piece, basically.

它基本上是一件藝術品。

Yes.

是的。

I mean it's just that.

我的意思是，僅此而已。

I agree.

我同意。

They're absolutely phenomenal cars.

它們絕對是非凡的汽車。

And we are increasing production on kind of S and X lines for this quarter in response to increasing demand.

我們正在增加本季度 S 和 X 生產線的產量，以應對不斷增長的需求。

And so I think part of the story here is, as we've launched, ramped and stabilized Model 3, that consumes a lot of the attention around the company.

所以我認為這裡的部分原因是，隨著我們推出、加速和穩定 Model 3，這吸引了公司周圍的大量注意力。

But now that -- as that has stabilized, we're able to focus our attention and balance that between S and X and Model 3.

但現在——隨著情況穩定，我們能夠集中註意力並在 S、X 和 Model 3 之間取得平衡。

And so the delivery numbers in Q3 understated the interest in the product for that quarter.

因此，第三季度的交付數據低估了該季度對該產品的興趣。

And we continue to see strength in the order rate, which we anticipate will be reflected in S and X deliveries in Q4.

我們繼續看到訂單率強勁，我們預計這將反映在第四季度的 S 和 X 交付中。

I mean Model S -- basically, Model S at this point has a range of 370 miles.

我的意思是 Model S——基本上，此時 Model S 的續航里程為 370 英里。

Actually, technically, it's 373, but we actually certified it incorrectly at 370.

實際上，從技術上講，它是 373，但我們實際上在 370 處錯誤地認證了它。

But it's 373.

但它是373。

And there are some software improvements that we think will make that even better.

我們認為有一些軟件改進會讓它變得更好。

Oh I forgot to mention, we're also expecting that there's going to be out there improvement -- that will improve the power of the Model S, X and 3. That's a by the way; this is coming in a few weeks.

哦，我忘了提，我們也期待會有改進——這將提高 Model S、X 和 3 的動力。順便說一句；這將在幾週後到來。

It should be on the order of 5% power improvement due to improved firmware.

由於固件的改進，它應該會提高 5% 的功率。

Drew, do you want to say anything on that one?

德魯，你想對那個說點什麼嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We're just continuing to learn how to optimize the motor control in our products.

我們只是在繼續學習如何優化我們產品中的電機控制。

And yes, so a 5% improvement for all 3 customers and 3% for S and X.

是的，所以所有 3 位客戶提高了 5%，S 和 X 提高了 3%。

Yes.

是的。

And there's also the single-pedal driving that will improve the range as well.

還有單踏板駕駛也可以提高續航里程。

Yes.

是的。

Very excited about that.

對此非常興奮。

It's going to -- it's an improvement in comfort and feel.

它會 - 這是舒適度和感覺的改進。

Yes.

是的。

So basically, it's easier to drive, and it improves the range.

所以基本上，它更容易駕駛，它提高了範圍。

Yes.

是的。

And faster supercharging.

和更快的增壓。

Oh, and faster supercharging.

哦，還有更快的增壓。

For Standard Range and Standard Range Plus customers, which is a big deal.

對於 Standard Range 和 Standard Range Plus 客戶來說，這很重要。

Yes.

是的。

I don't think there's ever been a situation in history where you buy a car and it gets way better over time just due to software.

我認為歷史上從未有過這樣的情況，即您購買汽車並且由於軟件而隨著時間的推移變得更好。

Not a little bit better, but a lot, right?

不是好一點，而是很多，對吧？

Because -- yes.

因為就是這樣。

It's very exciting.

這是非常令人興奮。

I think, yes, as a customer myself, I enjoy these updates.

我認為，是的，作為一名客戶，我喜歡這些更新。

Always look forward to them.

永遠期待他們。

Yes.

是的。

It might move the Model S range to almost 380 or high 370s with the update.

隨著更新，它可能會將 Model S 的範圍移動到近 380 或更高的 370。

And we're not stopping to work there.

我們不會停下來在那里工作。

We continue working on our developments.

我們繼續致力於我們的發展。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

Pierre, did you have a follow-up question?

皮埃爾，你有後續問題嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Just a quick one on the Model Y. So I was wondering if you -- what you've learned with the S and X makes you think maybe when you launch Model Y, you'll have some cannibalization of demand of the Model 3?

只是對 Model Y 的快速介紹。所以我想知道你是否——你從 S 和 X 中學到的東西讓你認為當你推出 Model Y 時，你會對 Model 3 的需求產生一些蠶食？

And have you started to think about that and how to approach it?

你有沒有開始思考這個問題以及如何處理它？

No, I don't think -- we're not expecting to see cannibalization of Model 3. One is a sedan.

不，我不認為——我們不希望看到 Model 3 被蠶食。一種是轎車。

One is an SUV.

一種是SUV。

Yes.

是的。

The best comparison we have for that is when we launched Model X and we had Model S at the time.

我們對此進行的最佳比較是在我們推出 Model X 和當時擁有 Model S 的時候。

Yes.

是的。

Model S sales increased.

Model S 銷量增加。

Yes.

是的。

And we didn't see any cannibalization there.

我們在那裡沒有看到任何自相殘殺。

The opposite.

相反。

When we launched Model X, Model S sales increased.

當我們推出 Model X 時，Model S 的銷量增加了。

Yes.

是的。

So that's the best comparison that we have.

所以這是我們最好的比較。

Our next question comes from Dan Levy with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Levy。

First, just wanted to ask a question on the Giga 3. You're targeting 3,000 units a week.

首先，只是想問一個關於 Giga 3 的問題。您的目標是每週 3,000 台。

But we saw with Fremont that the ramp on Model 3 was lumpy.

但我們在 Fremont 身上看到 Model 3 的坡道崎嶇不平。

And you'd sort of ramp and then you sort of cut production to fix the bottlenecks.

你會逐漸增加產量，然後削減產量以解決瓶頸問題。

Given that this is a brand-new capacity, how smooth should we expect production to be on a week-to-week basis?

鑑於這是一個全新的產能，我們預計每週生產的順利程度如何？

Meaning once you hit the 3,000, is that 3,000 you could go every single week in a quarter?

意思是一旦你達到 3,000，你可以在一個季度內每周達到 3,000 嗎？

Or is it still going to be lumpy within a quarter?

還是在四分之一之內它仍然會結塊？

I mean if you've got a crystal ball, we'd love to use it.

我的意思是，如果你有一個水晶球，我們很樂意使用它。

I'm looking for it.

我在找它。

Yes.

是的。

It should be smoother than Model 3 because there's a lot of commonality of parts.

它應該比 Model 3 更流暢，因為有很多零件的共性。

But -- and I think if you look over a reasonable enough time frame, the production will actually be fairly smooth.

但是——而且我認為如果你看一個足夠合理的時間框架，製作實際上會相當順利。

But from a week-to-week standpoint, it obviously will not be.

但從每週的角度來看，顯然不會。

It will be about as smooth as, say, the stock market.

它將和股市一樣平穩。

I mean how smooth is the stock market from one week to the next?

我的意思是股市從一周到下一周有多平穩？

It's -- but if you just extend the time period to, say, 2 or 3 quarters, it will be a very rapid steady ramp.

它是——但如果你只是將時間段延長到 2 或 3 個季度，這將是一個非常快速的穩定增長。

And obviously, it will go way past 3,000 a week.

顯然，它每週將超過 3,000 個。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just a follow-up.

然後只是跟進。

You mentioned -- Elon, you mentioned earlier in your comments that one of the things you're optimistic on in the future is Tesla Energy.

您提到--埃隆，您之前在評論中提到，您對未來持樂觀態度的一件事是特斯拉能源。

And I think we understand the part that one of the challenges in the past was sort of a reallocation of resources away from energy to the auto side.

我認為我們理解過去的挑戰之一是將資源從能源重新分配到汽車方面。

Could you just talk to where you see the greatest pockets of growth in energy?

你能談談你認為能源增長最大的地方嗎？

Is it solar or storage?

是太陽能還是儲能？

And now that you have to -- now that you can reallocate resources, what would that entail in terms of capacity growth?

既然你必須——既然你可以重新分配資源，那麼在容量增長方面會帶來什麼？

Or what does reallocation of resources look like?

或者資源的重新分配是什麼樣的？

Well, I think from a percentage basis, solar will grow the fastest, but storage will also grow high on a percentage basis.

嗯，我認為從百分比來看，太陽能將增長最快，但存儲也將在百分比基礎上增長。

I think both, over time, will grow faster than automotive.

我認為隨著時間的推移，兩者的增長速度都將超過汽車。

I think it's starting from smaller base.

我認為它是從較小的基礎開始的。

And I think especially if you look at sort of -- if you look at like year-over-year growth, it will be absolutely incredible, I think.

我認為，特別是如果你看一下 - 如果你看一下同比增長，我認為這絕對是不可思議的。

From one quarter to the next, there might be some fluctuations due to seasonality or some short-term part shortage or you name it, but it could be, over the course of, say, a year, gigantic increase.

從一個季度到下一個季度，可能會由於季節性或某些短期零件短缺或您的名字而出現一些波動，但在一年的時間裡，它可能會出現巨大的增長。

Also with solar, it's hard to install a lot of solar in the winter, especially on the East Coast.

同樣使用太陽能，在冬天很難安裝大量太陽能，尤其是在東海岸。

The roofs are full of snow and ice.

屋頂上滿是冰雪。

So you would expect to see some seasonality there, but then it ramps up quite a bit when -- as the weather improves.

所以你會期望在那裡看到一些季節性，但是隨著天氣的改善，它會增加很多。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And I think that's, unfortunately, all the time we have today.

不幸的是，我認為這就是我們今天所擁有的所有時間。

Appreciate all your questions, and we're looking forward to talking to you next quarter.

感謝您提出的所有問題，我們期待在下個季度與您交談。

Thank you very much, and goodbye.

非常感謝，再見。

All right.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。