特斯拉 (TSLA) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla, Inc.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到特斯拉公司。

Q4 2018 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast.

2018 年第四季度財務業績和問答網絡直播。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would like to introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係高級總監 Martin Viecha 先生。

Mr. Viecha, you may begin.

Viecha 先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Sherry, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝雪莉，大家下午好。

Welcome to Tesla's Fourth Quarter 2018 Q&A Webcast.

歡迎收聽特斯拉 2018 年第四季度網絡直播。

I'm joined today by Elon Musk, J.B. Straubel, Deepak Ahuja and a number of other executives.

今天加入我的有 Elon Musk、J.B. Straubel、Deepak Ahuja 和其他一些高管。

Our Q4 results were announced at about 1 p.m.

我們的第四季度業績在下午 1 點左右公佈。

Pacific Time in the update letter we published at the same link as this webcast.

太平洋時間在我們發佈在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上的更新信中。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。

These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。

Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.

但在我們進入問答環節之前，埃隆有一些開場白。

Elon?

埃隆?

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

Last year was definitely the most challenging year in Tesla history, but also the most successful.

去年絕對是特斯拉歷史上最具挑戰性的一年，也是最成功的一年。

Thanks to the incredible work of the Tesla team, Model 3 became the best-selling premium vehicle in the U.S. for 2018.

得益於特斯拉團隊的出色工作，Model 3 成為 2018 年美國最暢銷的高檔汽車。

And in fact, when considering battery electric vehicles, Tesla achieved an 80% market share of U.S. sales in the last year.

事實上，在考慮電池電動汽車時，特斯拉在去年的美國銷量中實現了 80% 的市場份額。

I think this point is perhaps not well appreciated.

我認為這一點可能沒有得到很好的理解。

All other electric vehicles combined were 20% of sales in the U.S. in last year.

去年，所有其他電動汽車合計占美國銷售額的 20%。

So I think that's not bad.

所以我認為這還不錯。

We also delivered -- also made vehicles last year as we did in all prior years combined, which is a tremendous achievement by the Tesla team.

去年我們還交付了——也製造了汽車，就像我們之前所有年份的總和一樣，這是特斯拉團隊的一項巨大成就。

The -- if you track Tesla vehicle production year-over-year, cumulative sales deliveries year-over-year, it is about the cleanest exponential I've ever seen.

- 如果您跟踪特斯拉汽車的年產量、累計銷售交付量，這大約是我見過的最乾淨的指數。

We've basically almost doubled our fleet every year.

基本上，我們每年的機隊幾乎翻了一番。

Every year, we make as many cars as we did in all prior years.

每年，我們製造的汽車數量與往年一樣多。

So this is a very unusual thing to see for -- especially for a large complex manufactured object.

所以這是一件非常不尋常的事情——尤其是對於一個大型複雜的製造對象。

I think it may be the fastest that a complex manufactured object like a car has grown in history, or at least I'm not aware of anything that is faster.

我認為這可能是歷史上像汽車這樣的複雜製造對象增長最快的速度，或者至少我不知道有什麼更快的東西。

Martin, are you -- do you...?

馬丁，你是——你是……？

I'm not sure.

我不確定。

I think Model T was a little bit slower, but I'm not 100% sure.

我認為 T 型車要慢一點，但我不能 100% 確定。

Okay.

好的。

And we expect that exponential to continue.

我們預計這種指數將繼續下去。

So with the deliveries this year being -- even in the face of -- if there's a global recession -- even if there's a global recession, we're expecting deliveries this year to be about 50% higher than last year.

因此，鑑於今年的交付量——即使面對——如果全球經濟衰退——即使全球經濟衰退，我們預計今年的交付量將比去年高出約 50%。

And this -- it could be a lot more than that.

而這 - 它可能遠不止於此。

But even with tough economic times, to receive 50% growth is pretty nutty.

但即使在經濟困難時期，獲得 50% 的增長也是相當瘋狂的。

Over Q4, we achieved GAAP profitability for the second quarter for the first time in the company history, and we increased our cash on hand by more than $700 million, even after paying debt, ending the year with a total of $3.7 billion of cash.

在第四季度，我們在公司歷史上首次實現了第二季度的 GAAP 盈利，即使在償還債務之後，我們的手頭現金也增加了 7 億多美元，到年底總共有 37 億美元的現金。

This means we have enough cash to settle our convertible bond that will mature in March.

這意味著我們有足夠的現金來結算將於 3 月到期的可轉換債券。

In addition, our operating margin remains strong at 5.7%.

此外，我們的營業利潤率保持在 5.7% 的強勁水平。

Operating margins in the fourth quarter are usually lower in the automotive industry, but this was not the case for Tesla.

汽車行業第四季度的營業利潤率通常較低，但特斯拉並非如此。

2019 is going to be an amazing year for Tesla.

2019 年對於特斯拉來說將是非凡的一年。

As I mentioned, we're expecting to increase sales by 50%.

正如我所提到的，我們預計銷售額將增加 50%。

Perhaps it could be a lot more than 50%, but I think 50% is a very reasonable number.

也許它可能遠遠超過 50%，但我認為 50% 是一個非常合理的數字。

But that's crazy growth for the automotive industry.

但這對汽車行業來說是瘋狂的增長。

I want to note that one of our major priorities this quarter is improving service operations.

我想指出，我們本季度的主要優先事項之一是改善服務運營。

So really, from my standpoint, when I think about what my priorities are this quarter, it's improving service in North America.

所以真的，從我的角度來看，當我考慮本季度的優先事項時，它正在改善北美的服務。

That's #1.

那是#1。

And I think there are some very exciting initiatives we're going to roll out with regard to that.

我認為我們將在這方面推出一些非常令人興奮的舉措。

We're going to get cars to China and Europe and make sure that we have good logistics for the whole delivery process, from factory gate to the customer.

我們將把汽車運往中國和歐洲，並確保我們在從工廠門口到客戶的整個交付過程中擁有良好的物流。

That's obviously pretty far from California to get to Europe and China and then get to -- get product to our customers.

顯然，從加利福尼亞到歐洲和中國，然後再去——將產品交給我們的客戶，還很遠。

So we're working every aspect of that logistics chain.

因此，我們正在處理該物流鏈的各個方面。

And I think we've -- I think it's going to be good.

而且我認為我們已經 - 我認為這會很好。

I'd say at this point, I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1.

我想說，在這一點上，我對第一季度的盈利持樂觀態度。

Not by a lot, but I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and for all quarters going forward.

不是很多，但我對第一季度和未來所有季度的盈利持樂觀態度。

So let's see, we've opened 27 new store and service locations, bringing our total locations worldwide to 378.

讓我們看看，我們開設了 27 家新的商店和服務點，使我們在全球的總數達到 378 個。

And we increased our Mobile Service fleet to 411 vehicles.

我們將移動服務車隊增加到 411 輛。

The Mobile Service fleet is something we can scale up very rapidly, because we don't need bricks and mortar.

移動服務車隊是我們可以非常迅速地擴大規模的東西，因為我們不需要實體。

We can get more vehicles, hire people and deploy rapidly.

我們可以獲得更多車輛、僱用人員並迅速部署。

It also actually results in higher customer satisfaction, because we can actually send one of our service vans to your work or home and fix the car without you having to bring it into a service center or do any paperwork or anything like that.

它實際上還可以提高客戶滿意度，因為我們實際上可以將我們的一輛服務車送到您的工作或家中並修理汽車，而無需您將其帶到服務中心或做任何文書工作或類似的事情。

It's really seamless, invisible, the customers love it.

它真的是無縫的，隱形的，客戶喜歡它。

And we're also increasing the functionality of the Tesla App for service, so that instead of having to make an appointment, to call and make an appointment, you can just open your Tesla App, say you want to make a service appointment, and it lists the top 10 most frequently requested service items, and you can, with a couple of taps, you've made your service appointment.

我們還增加了 Tesla 應用程序的服務功能，這樣您就不必預約，打電話預約，只需打開您的 Tesla 應用程序，說您要預約服務，然後它列出了最常請求的 10 項服務項目，您只需輕點幾下即可預約服務。

And we're going to make it easier for the car to be picked up and dropped off as well.

我們還將讓汽車更容易被接送。

So if you want -- if you prefer not coming to the service center at all, you can just request that the car be picked up and delivered.

因此，如果您願意——如果您根本不想來服務中心，您可以要求取車並交付汽車。

That's something that we'll be -- so that's already been rolled out and have a big improvement to customer satisfaction.

這就是我們將要做的事情——所以它已經推出並且對客戶滿意度有很大的提高。

That rolled out 2 or 3 weeks ago.

2 或 3 週前推出的。

But the next thing we're going to add is, if your car detects something wrong, like a flat tire or a drive unit failure, that before the car has even come to a halt, there is a tow truck and a service loaner on the way.

但是接下來我們要補充的是，如果您的汽車檢測到有問題，例如輪胎漏氣或驅動單元故障，那麼在汽車停下來之前，就會有一輛拖車和一個服務貸款人道路。

So the car has already notified Tesla emergency services, and a service loaner, a tow truck, are on their way before your car has even come to a stop.

所以這輛車已經通知了特斯拉的緊急服務，而一輛服務借用者，一輛拖車，在你的車停下來之前就已經在路上了。

Now this will be immense in improving customer happiness.

現在，這將極大地提高客戶的幸福感。

Basically, it'll just call it and you'll have to tap the center screen to cancel it.

基本上，它只會調用它，您必須點擊中心屏幕才能取消它。

So you can cancel it if you want.

因此，您可以根據需要取消它。

We just have to -- it's like automatically going to happen, you just press cancel.

我們只需要——就像自動發生一樣，您只需按取消即可。

We're also improving product distribution.

我們也在改進產品分銷。

So I think we made a strategic error in the past about not having service parts located at our service centers.

所以我認為我們過去犯了一個戰略錯誤，即我們的服務中心沒有服務部件。

We had them in product distribution warehouses, which basically meant it was impossible to have a fast turnaround on servicing a car, because the car would come in, then the parts will be requested, they come to the service center, this would basically -- even for a very simple repair, could take days.

我們把它們放在產品配送倉庫裡，這基本上意味著維修汽車不可能快速周轉，因為汽車會進來，然後會要求零件，他們會來到服務中心，這基本上會——即使是非常簡單的維修，也可能需要幾天時間。

So we're going to be able to stock in all common parts at the service centers, so that it's possible to -- and first of all, have -- get your car serviced in 20 minutes or 15 minutes, even, if it's a simple matter.

因此，我們將能夠在服務中心儲存所有常用零件，這樣就有可能——首先，有——在 20 分鐘或 15 分鐘內為您的汽車提供服務，即使它是簡單的事情。

I mean, it should be like Jiffy Lube, like 8 minutes or whatever, not 8 minutes, that's -- it should be like lightning fast.

我的意思是，它應該像 Jiffy Lube，像 8 分鐘或其他什麼，而不是 8 分鐘，那是——它應該像閃電一樣快。

But in order to do that, we have to have the parts located at our service centers.

但為了做到這一點，我們必須將零件放在我們的服務中心。

Also, it's going to make sense for our service centers to do basic body work or essentially, if all you need to do to is replace a front or rear fascia, it makes sense to just pre-stock the front and rear fascia in the common colors.

此外，我們的服務中心進行基本的車身工作也很有意義，或者基本上，如果您需要做的只是更換前面板或後面板，那麼只需在公共區域預先儲存前後面板是有意義的顏色。

So unless you have an unusual color, we can literally replace your fascia in 15, 20 minutes, and there's none of this, like, weeks at a body shop stuff.

因此，除非您有不尋常的顏色，否則我們可以在 15 到 20 分鐘內真正更換您的筋膜，而且這些都沒有，例如，在車身修理廠需要幾週的時間。

Let's see, in terms of the new products, with Model Y, we've completed [ensuring] of and design of Model Y, and the products are -- the tooling that's going out for production of Model Y, 3/4 of the Model Y is common with the Model 3, so it's a much lower CapEx per vehicle than Model 3. And the risk is also quite low.

讓我們看看，在新產品方面，對於 Model Y，我們已經完成了 Model Y 的 [確保] 和設計，並且產品是 - 用於生產 Model Y 的工具，3/4 Model Y 與 Model 3 很常見，因此每輛車的資本支出比 Model 3 低得多。而且風險也很低。

This is in contrast to Model S versus Model X, where the theory was -- I think Model X, we just -- it's like sort of Model X to be like sort of the Fabergé egg of cars.

這與 Model S 與 Model X 形成對比，後者的理論是——我認為 Model X，我們只是——就像 Model X 有點像汽車的 Fabergé 蛋。

It's a -- it's an incredible vehicle and probably one -- probably nothing like it will ever be made again, and maybe it shouldn't.

這是一輛 - 這是一輛令人難以置信的車輛，而且可能是一輛 - 可能再也不會製造類似的東西了，也許它不應該。

But it is a work of art.

但它是一件藝術品。

It's a special work of art.

這是一件特別的藝術品。

But the commonality with the Model S is limited.

但與 Model S 的共性是有限的。

It was only about maybe 30% in common with the Model S, whereas Model Y is, I think, 76% or something like that, in common with the Model 3. And we're most likely going to put Model Y production right next to -- in fact, as part of our main Gigafactory in Nevada.

它與 Model S 的共同點只有大約 30%，而我認為 Model Y 與 Model 3 的共同點是 76% 左右。而且我們很可能接下來將生產 Model Y到——事實上，作為我們在內華達州主要超級工廠的一部分。

So it will just be right there, batteries and powertrains will come out and go straight into the vehicle.

所以它就在那裡，電池和動力系統會出來並直接進入車輛。

So that also reduces our risk of execution and reduces the cost of having to transfer parts from California to Nevada.

因此，這也降低了我們的執行風險，並降低了將零件從加利福尼亞州轉移到內華達州的成本。

It's not a for-sure thing, but it's quite likely, and it's our default plan.

這不是肯定的事情，但很有可能，這是我們的默認計劃。

I would expect Model Y will probably be -- the demand for Model Y will be maybe 50% higher than Model 3, could be even double.

我預計 Model Y 可能會——對 Model Y 的需求可能會比 Model 3 高出 50%，甚至可能翻一番。

The -- as I understand it, the mid-sized SUV segment is the, worldwide, is the most popular type of vehicle.

- 據我了解，中型 SUV 細分市場是全球最受歡迎的車型。

So we'll probably see a higher volume of Y than 3.

所以我們可能會看到 Y 的數量高於 3。

And earlier this month, we started construction of Gigafactory Shanghai, and by the end of this year, we expect to be producing Model 3s using a complete vehicle production line.

本月早些時候，我們開始建設上海超級工廠，到今年年底，我們預計將使用整車生產線生產 Model 3。

That's body, paint, final assembly, general assembly and module production.

即車身、油漆、總裝、總裝和模塊生產。

So it basically would be -- this should be extremely fast.

所以它基本上是——這應該非常快。

I get like daily updates of progress of the Shanghai Gigafactory, and those factories are going to go up like lightning.

我每天都會收到上海超級工廠的進度更新，那些工廠會像閃電一樣上升。

So we do feel quite confident at this point, at least for the factories that are in our control, that we can achieve volume production in Shanghai by the end of the year.

所以在這一點上我們確實很有信心，至少對於我們控制的工廠來說，我們可以在年底前在上海實現量產。

And that should allow us to get to the 10,000 vehicles a week rate, or very close to it, by the end of the year.

這應該能讓我們在年底前達到每週 10,000 輛汽車的速度，或者非常接近它。

And yes, I think that's it.

是的，我想就是這樣。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

So we're going to take the first questions from our retail investors who have been submitting their questions on say.com.

因此，我們將從散戶投資者那裡獲得第一個問題，他們一直在 say.com 上提交問題。

So the question that has been submitted has been about service, which I think you already spoke at length about.

所以已經提交的問題是關於服務的，我想你已經詳細談過了。

So let's go to the second question.

那麼讓我們進入第二個問題。

The second question would be, how are you feeling about demand right now across the product line?

第二個問題是，您現在對整個產品線的需求感覺如何？

Is 500,000 to 700,000 units at $42,000 ASP still a realistic annual target for Model 3, even considering Model Y and its impact on demand?

即使考慮到 Model Y 及其對需求的影響，500,000 至 700,000 輛（平均售價 42,000 美元）仍然是 Model 3 的現實年度目標嗎？

And do you continue to see S and X demand of 100,000 annually?

您是否繼續看到每年 100,000 的 S 和 X 需求？

I mean, my best guess, this is just a guess, my best guess for demand of Model 3 worldwide is something -- in a strong economy, is something on the order of 700,000 or 800,000 units a year.

我的意思是，我最好的猜測，這只是一個猜測，我對全球 Model 3 需求的最好猜測是——在強勁的經濟中，每年大約 700,000 或 800,000 輛。

That's my best guess for demand of Model 3 in a strong economy.

這是我對強勁經濟中 Model 3 需求的最佳猜測。

If the economy goes into a recession, then I think that could be something on the -- 40% less.

如果經濟陷入衰退，那麼我認為這可能會減少 40%。

But I think even in a recession, worldwide demand is still something in the order of 500,000 for Model 3. For S and X, we did eliminate the 75 kilowatt hour version of S and X and to provide more differentiation relative to 3 and then Y that's coming out.

但我認為，即使在經濟衰退期間，Model 3 的全球需求量仍然在 500,000 輛左右。對於 S 和 X，我們確實取消了 S 和 X 的 75 千瓦時版本，並相對於 3 和 Y 提供更多差異化出來了。

I think we could see a slight decline in total vehicles, but I think the net cash flow from S and X is likely to be very similar.

我認為我們可以看到車輛總數略有下降，但我認為 S 和 X 的淨現金流可能非常相似。

So probably no major change in net cash flow for S and X.

因此，S 和 X 的淨現金流可能沒有重大變化。

Okay.

好的。

The next question from Alex is, can you please share an update on full self-driving and Tesla Network development?

亞歷克斯的下一個問題是，你能分享一下全自動駕駛和特斯拉網絡開發的最新情況嗎？

When will customers start to see full self driving features?

客戶何時會開始看到完整的自動駕駛功能？

What's the best case time line for Tesla Network to go live?

特斯拉網絡上線的最佳案例時間線是什麼？

Sure.

當然。

We -- we already have full self-driving capability on highway.

我們——我們已經在高速公路上擁有完全的自動駕駛能力。

So from highway on-ramp to highway exit, including passing cars and going from one highway interchange to another, full self driving capability is there.

因此，從高速公路入口匝道到高速公路出口，包括過往車輛以及從一個高速公路立交橋到另一個高速公路交匯處，都具備完全的自動駕駛能力。

In a few weeks, we'll be pushing an update that will allow the option of removing stalk confirm in markets where regulators approve it, which we believe that will be the case in the U.S., for example.

幾週後，我們將推出一項更新，允許在監管機構批准的市場中選擇移除 Stalk Confirm，例如，我們認為美國就是這種情況。

And over time, we think probably all regulators will approve it.

隨著時間的推移，我們認為可能所有監管機構都會批准它。

But we kept stalk confirm there just to make sure that we took care of like -- of any strange corner cases.

但我們一直在那兒確認，只是為了確保我們照顧到任何奇怪的角落案例。

And it's really quite sublime, if you have stalk confirm off and like the car goes from highway on-ramp, passes slower cars, change -- takes an interchange and then takes the exit and then comes to a stop after the exit.

這真的非常棒，如果你已經確認關閉，就像汽車從高速公路入口匝道駛出，經過較慢的汽車，改變 - 進入立交橋，然後離開出口，然後在出口後停下來。

So it's really quite profound to have that experience.

所以有這樣的經歷真的很深刻。

Then the next part of full self-driving would really be to -- is traffic lights.

那麼完全自動駕駛的下一部分真的是——是紅綠燈。

So it's hard.

所以很難。

So stop streets are pretty easy because you can essentially geocode those and it's easier to recognize stop signs.

因此，停車街道非常容易，因為您基本上可以對這些街道進行地理編碼，並且更容易識別停車標誌。

Traffic lights and intersections will be the next really tricky one.

紅綠燈和十字路口將是下一個非常棘手的問題。

And then navigating complex parking lots and like -- so like if you're underground in a mall parking lot with a lot of traffic and pedestrians and it's on multiple levels, that kind of thing is what gets tricky.

然後導航複雜的停車場之類的 - 所以如果你在一個有很多交通和行人的商場停車場的地下並且它在多個層次上，這種事情就會變得棘手。

With the release of enhanced or advanced Summon, you'll see the first indications of the car being able to navigate complex parking lots, and that's also coming out fairly soon, probably next month.

隨著增強或高級 Summon 的發布，您將看到汽車能夠在復雜停車場導航的初步跡象，而且這也很快就會出現，可能在下個月。

And in development mode, the car does all of the things that I just mentioned in development mode.

在開發模式下，汽車會完成我剛才在開發模式中提到的所有事情。

It recognizes traffic lights and stop signs and basically has all the functionality in development mode.

它可以識別紅綠燈和停車標誌，基本上具備開發模式下的所有功能。

It's really just a question of getting the reliability of recognizing traffic lights to several 9s, like -- so maybe it's like, I don't know, 98% good right now, but we need it to be like 99.999%, really extremely reliable.

這實際上只是將識別交通信號燈的可靠性提高到幾個 9 的問題，就像 - 所以也許現在，我不知道，98% 好，但我們需要它像 99.999%，非常可靠.

So in a nutshell, when the capability will be there for -- when will we think it's safe for full self-driving, it's probably towards the end of this year, and then it's up to regulators to decide when they want to approve that.

所以簡而言之，什麼時候有能力——我們什麼時候認為完全自動駕駛是安全的，可能是在今年年底，然後由監管機構決定何時批准。

Okay.

好的。

Let's go to the next question, which is, if and when will Tesla switch Model S and X to 2170 battery cells?

讓我們進入下一個問題，即特斯拉是否以及何時將 Model S 和 X 轉換為 2170 電池？

What percent range improvement do you expect?

您期望的範圍改進百分比是多少？

We have no plans to switch S and X to 2170 and can't comment on future product developments.

我們沒有將 S 和 X 切換到 2170 的計劃，也無法對未來的產品開發發表評論。

Okay.

好的。

So maybe we'll take the last question from retail investors, which was, where will Tesla Semi and Model Y be produced?

所以也許我們會回答散戶投資者的最後一個問題，那就是，特斯拉 Semi 和 Model Y 將在哪裡生產？

Can you share a time line on expected production ramp of these products?

您能否分享這些產品的預期產量增長時間表？

I was mentioning earlier, the Model Y, we think, most likely will be produced at Gigafactory, but that's -- unless we encounter some obstacle -- that's the default plan that we're proceeding towards.

我之前提到過，我們認為 Model Y 很可能會在 Gigafactory 生產，但那是 - 除非我們遇到一些障礙 - 這是我們正在進行的默認計劃。

And it's fast, lower risk and relatively low CapEx.

而且它速度快、風險低、資本支出相對較低。

In terms of the -- I mean, probably there's like initial production of Model Y, very low volume, early next year.

就 - 我的意思是，可能會在明年初開始生產 Model Y，產量非常低。

But then it always takes time to ramp up any production system, and it's difficult to predict the shape of that S-curve.

但是，升級任何生產系統總是需要時間，而且很難預測 S 曲線的形狀。

So we feel confident in saying there will be production volume of Model Y by the end of next year.

所以我們有信心說明年年底Model Y就會有量產。

But in between beginning of next year with low volume, it always starts with very low, and then it grows exponentially, from beginning of last year to end of next year, it's difficult to predict that ramp.

但是在明年年初的低銷量之間，它總是從非常低的開始，然後呈指數增長，從去年年初到明年年底，很難預測這種上升。

So that's our expectation for Y. For Semi, we're -- I don't know if you want to comment on that, Jerome?

這就是我們對 Y 的期望。對於 Semi，我們是 - 我不知道你是否想對此發表評論，Jerome？

Going to start next year as well.

明年也要開始了。

Yes.

是的。

But the first units will be -- this is Jerome -- well, first units will be for our own usage.

但是第一個單元將是-這是杰羅姆-嗯，第一個單元將供我們自己使用。

So depends how many trucks we'll use for our own usage to move the parts and the vehicles to different locations, and then we'll start delivering to outside customers.

因此，取決於我們將使用多少輛卡車將零件和車輛運送到不同的地點，然後我們將開始向外部客戶交付。

Yes, sounds good.

是的，聽起來不錯。

And then the Tesla pickup truck, we might be ready to unveil that this summer.

然後是特斯拉皮卡車，我們可能準備在今年夏天推出它。

It will be something quite unique, unlike anything else.

這將是非常獨特的東西，不同於其他任何東西。

Okay, fantastic.

好的，太棒了。

So operator, we can start taking questions from participants on the call.

所以接線員，我們可以開始接受電話參與者的提問。

Our first question comes from Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

I see in the letter the amount that you have spent on land for Gigafactory Shanghai in the classification operating cash flows.

我在信中看到您在分類經營現金流中為上海超級工廠在土地上花費的金額。

Is there any guidance you can provide us in terms of how to think about CapEx for this facility going forward?

關於如何考慮該設施未來的資本支出，您可以為我們提供任何指導嗎？

And can you discuss the source of funds for the project?

你能談談這個項目的資金來源嗎？

I think you've spoken in the past about the potential to raise debt locally in China.

我想你過去曾談到在中國本地籌集債務的潛力。

Is that still your thinking?

這還是你的想法嗎？

And what kind of terms might you be able to raise that capital?

什麼樣的條件可以籌集到這筆資金？

Yes, Deepak here.

是的，迪帕克在這裡。

You're right.

你是對的。

The purchase of the land is a 50-year lease with the government of China.

購買土地是與中國政府簽訂的 50 年租約。

So it's not CapEx, but it's operating lease that shows up as cash flow from operations.

因此，這不是資本支出，而是以運營現金流量顯示的經營租賃。

However, the CapEx that we will invest is our equipment, and we fully own it.

但是，我們將投資的資本支出是我們的設備，我們完全擁有它。

So that will show up as capital expenditures.

因此，這將顯示為資本支出。

The plan, as we have indicated in the letter, is still to get funding for a majority of debt capital spending from local China banks.

正如我們在信中所指出的，該計劃仍是從中國當地銀行獲得大部分債務資本支出的資金。

And we expect pretty attractive rates based on the dialogue we've had.

根據我們的對話，我們預計會有相當有吸引力的利率。

And there's a lot of interest.

並且有很多興趣。

And we hope to finalize that and then share the details at that point.

我們希望最終確定這一點，然後在那時分享細節。

Yes, I mean, as a ballpark figure, probably it's something about -- something in the order of $0.5 billion in CapEx to get to the 3,000 vehicle rate in Shanghai, ballpark figure.

是的，我的意思是，作為一個大概的數字，大概需要 5 億美元的資本支出來達到上海 3,000 輛汽車的價格，大概的數字。

And as Deepak was saying, we've been offered very competitive debt financing in China, really extremely compelling interest rates, so we do not expect that to be a capital drain on the company.

正如迪帕克所說，我們在中國獲得了非常有競爭力的債務融資，非常具有吸引力的利率，所以我們不認為這會成為公司的資本外流。

Yes, these are the biggest banks in the world, and for them, $500 million is not a large amount of money in the scheme of things.

是的，這些都是世界上最大的銀行，對他們來說，5 億美元在計劃中並不是一筆大數目。

Our next question comes from Gene Munster with Loup Ventures.

我們的下一個問題來自 Loup Ventures 的 Gene Munster。

One thing is -- sorry, I just wanted to -- something that's perhaps, if you're in the automotive industry, you'll understand how significant this is, but maybe it's not as obvious to everyone, is Tesla has the first wholly-owned manufacturing facility in China for any -- of any automotive company.

有一件事是——對不起，我只是想——如果你在汽車行業，你會明白這有多麼重要，但也許對每個人來說都不是那麼明顯，是特斯拉完全擁有第一個- 為任何一家汽車公司在中國擁有的製造工廠。

So this is profound, and we're very appreciative of the Chinese government allowing us to do this.

所以這是深刻的，我們非常感謝中國政府允許我們這樣做。

I think it is symbolic of them wanting to open the market and apply fair rules for everyone, and I want to extend, like, a note of appreciation for the Chinese government in allowing us to do that.

我認為這象徵著他們想要開放市場並為每個人應用公平的規則，我想向中國政府允許我們這樣做表示感謝。

It's a very significant thing.

這是一件非常重要的事情。

This question I have is relative to Waymo and the autonomous driving opportunity.

我的這個問題與 Waymo 和自動駕駛機會有關。

Morgan Stanley recently valued Waymo at $175 billion.

摩根士丹利最近對 Waymo 的估值為 1750 億美元。

And my question is, what do they have that you don't have?

我的問題是，他們有什麼你沒有的？

And separately -- so what do they have that you don't have, and then separately, how important is autonomy to the Tesla story longer term?

分開來說——那麼他們有什麼你沒有的，然後分開來說，從長遠來看，自主性對特斯拉的故事有多重要？

Is this nice to have?

這很好嗎？

Is it really about EVs and renewable energy?

真的是關於電動汽車和可再生能源嗎？

Or is the autonomy kind of one of the foundational parts of the story longer term?

或者自治是故事的基礎部分之一嗎？

To find out the goodness of Tesla, so like sort of the why of Tesla, the relevance, what's the point of Tesla, comes down to 2 things: acceleration of sustainable energy and autonomy.

要找出特斯拉的優點，就像特斯拉的原因一樣，相關性，特斯拉的意義何在，歸結為兩件事：可持續能源的加速和自治。

The acceleration of sustainable energy is absolutely fundamental because this is the next potential risk for humanity.

可持續能源的加速發展絕對是根本，因為這是人類面臨的下一個潛在風險。

So obviously, that is, by far and away, the most important thing.

很明顯，這是最重要的事情。

But also, very important is autonomy.

而且，非常重要的是自主權。

This has the potential to save millions of lives, tens of millions of serious highway injuries and give people their time back so that they don't have to drive, they can -- if you're on the road, you can spend time doing things that you enjoy instead of being in terrible traffic.

這有可能挽救數百萬人的生命、數千萬人的嚴重高速公路傷害，並讓人們有時間回來，這樣他們就不必開車了，他們可以——如果你在路上，你可以花時間做你喜歡的東西，而不是在可怕的交通。

So it's extremely important.

所以這非常重要。

We feel confident about our technical strategy, and I think we have an advantage that no one else has, which is that we have, at this point, somewhere in the order of 300,000 vehicles on the road, with a 360-degree camera sensor suite, radar, ultrasonics, always connected, uploads, especially video clips with [customer information], when there's an intervention.

我們對我們的技術戰略充滿信心，而且我認為我們擁有其他人所沒有的優勢，那就是我們目前擁有大約 300,000 輛道路上的車輛，配備 360 度攝像頭傳感器套件，雷達，超聲波，始終連接，上傳，尤其是帶有[客戶信息]的視頻剪輯，當有乾預時。

So effectively, we have a massive, massive training fleet.

如此有效，我們擁有龐大的訓練艦隊。

Our -- the miles of training that we have, if you added everyone else up combined, they're probably 5%, I'm being generous, of the miles that Tesla has.

我們的 - 我們擁有的培訓里程，如果你把其他人加起來，他們可能是特斯拉擁有的里程的 5%，我很慷慨。

And this difference is increasing.

而且這種差異正在增加。

A year from now, we'll probably go -- and if you go, certainly, if you go 18 months from now, we'll probably have 1 million vehicles on the road with -- and every time the customers drive the car, they're training the systems to be better.

一年後，我們可能會去 - 如果你去，當然，如果你去 18 個月後，我們可能會有 100 萬輛汽車在路上行駛 - 每次客戶開車時，他們正在訓練系統變得更好。

I'm just not sure how anyone competes with that.

我只是不確定有人如何與之競爭。

Our next question...

我們的下一個問題...

Sorry, Gene, do you have a follow-up question?

抱歉，吉恩，你有後續問題嗎？

Okay, no follow-up question.

好吧，沒有後續問題。

Okay, let's go to the next participant.

好的，讓我們轉到下一位參與者。

Our next question is from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Colin Rusch 和 Oppenheimer。

Can you talk a little bit about the geographic dispersion for the guidance for 2019, where you're expecting the Model 3s to sell through as well as the other models?

您能否談談 2019 年指導的地理分佈情況，您預計 Model 3 和其他車型一樣會在哪裡銷售？

Well, I think we did, actually.

嗯，我想我們確實做到了。

Yes, it's clear in our letter.

是的，這在我們的信中很清楚。

Correct.

正確的。

We indicated in Q1, we will start delivering Model 3s in Europe and China.

我們在第一季度表示，我們將開始在歐洲和中國交付 Model 3。

And we also shared a chart showing the potential market size for mid-sized premium sedans in North America, Europe and Asia, suggesting those markets can be even bigger.

我們還分享了一張圖表，顯示了北美、歐洲和亞洲中型高檔轎車的潛在市場規模，表明這些市場可能更大。

So I think that gives a good sense of where we'll be.

所以我認為這很好地說明了我們將在哪裡。

And we'll launch the right-hand drive version at some point to go to the other markets.

我們將在某個時候推出右駕版本以進入其他市場。

Yes, it's maybe on the order of 350,000 to 500,000 Model 3s, something like that this year.

是的，今年可能會生產 350,000 到 500,000 輛 Model 3。

Okay.

好的。

And then just in terms of the cost reduction road map and rework, post-factory, can you talk a little bit about your expectation for reducing that in the next couple of quarters and what the order of magnitude is on that in your model internally?

然後就降低成本的路線圖和返工而言，您能否談談您對在接下來的幾個季度內降低成本的期望，以及您的模型在內部的數量級是多少？

Jerome, do you want to answer that?

杰羅姆，你想回答這個問題嗎？

This is Jerome.

這是杰羅姆。

Well, our manufacturing keeps improving quarter-over-quarter, actually, week-over-week.

嗯，我們的製造業在逐季不斷改進，實際上是逐週改進。

We take fewer hours, both here in Fremont or at the Gigafactory, to assemble the Model 3 and S and X as well.

無論是在弗里蒙特還是在 Gigafactory，我們都花費更少的時間來組裝 Model 3 和 S 和 X。

And then we track the quality very closely.

然後我們非常密切地跟踪質量。

We review that carefully with the engineers and the supply chain and the manufacturing teams.

我們與工程師、供應鍊和製造團隊一起仔細審查。

And the quality in the field and the number of incidents is also improving week-over-week, every week.

現場的質量和事故數量也在每週都在提高。

So there are fewer and fewer need for cars to be in service, yes.

因此，對汽車服務的需求越來越少，是的。

So we'll keep going.

所以我們會繼續前進。

There's no end in sight.

看不到盡頭。

And we'll try to make sure that the car never breaks down.

我們將努力確保汽車永遠不會拋錨。

Yes, I think there's like some confusion about rectification.

是的，我認為整改有點混亂。

Like I said -- like for us, regarding the Model 3s that come off the line, all that happens is like some slight adjustment of drawer gaps and panel gaps and that kind of thing, and that's all that's done.

就像我說的——對我們來說，關於下線的 Model 3，所發生的一切就像抽屜間隙和麵板間隙的一些輕微調整之類的事情，這就是全部。

There's nothing more than that.

沒有什麼比這更多了。

Our next question comes from Colin Langan with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Colin Langan。

Just a follow-up on the comments around you said about 700,000 to 800,000, you think, is the normal demand.

只是跟進你周圍的評論說70萬到80萬，你認為，是正常的需求。

I mean, any color on what price you're expecting that to be?

我的意思是，您期望的價格是多少？

Because I think there's a lot of chatter that demand is already weak in -- of the midrange, at least, already in January.

因為我認為有很多關於需求已經疲軟的傳言——至少在 1 月份就已經在中檔了。

I don't know if that's true as well.

我不知道這是否也是真的。

Yes, I mean, the -- it's more like there are multiple factors at play here.

是的，我的意思是，這更像是有多種因素在起作用。

First of all, there's a lot of seasonality to automotive purchases.

首先，汽車購買有很多季節性。

Most people do not buy a new car in the middle of a blizzard.

大多數人不會在暴風雪中購買新車。

So January and February tend to be seasonally low and then it picks up significantly around the early to mid-March time frame.

因此，1 月和 2 月往往是季節性低點，然後在 3 月初至中旬的時間範圍內顯著回升。

In the U.S., we obviously have a pull forward of demand from the tax credit.

在美國，稅收抵免顯然拉動了需求。

And yes, there's -- so there's those factors.

是的，有 - 所以有這些因素。

But I feel very confident about Model 3 demand.

但我對 Model 3 的需求很有信心。

The customer happiness level with the car is incredible, I mean, I think probably the highest of any car in the world right now, I think.

客戶對汽車的滿意度令人難以置信，我的意思是，我認為這可能是目前世界上所有汽車中最高的，我認為。

And so you can tell, like, basically, nobody wants to sell a car, so...

所以你可以說，基本上，沒有人想賣車，所以...

But the target price point is, I think, in the past, you mentioned mid-$40,000.

但我認為，目標價格點是，在過去，你提到過 40,000 美元左右。

Is that where we're thinking?

這是我們在想的地方嗎？

Or is that a long-term range?

或者這是一個長期的範圍？

Yes, this is really just a guess.

是的，這真的只是一個猜測。

So it's not like I've got some huge crystal ball or something.

所以這不像我有一些巨大的水晶球或什麼的。

But at high -- at volume, I would expect, this is totally a guess, I just want to be clear, probably an average of $42,000, probably at that volume level.

但是在高 - 成交量，我預計，這完全是一個猜測，我只是想清楚一點，可能平均為 42,000 美元，可能在那個成交量水平。

I'm not certain, but that's my guess.

我不確定，但這是我的猜測。

And just as a follow-up, you commented that you expect China to be online by the end of the year, but there's a lot of articles that the battery supplier -- is you're looking at different battery suppliers still.

作為後續行動，您評論說您預計中國將在今年年底前上線，但有很多文章提到電池供應商——您還在尋找不同的電池供應商嗎？

I mean, do you have a battery supplier?

我的意思是，你們有電池供應商嗎？

Because it seems kind of close to when production is supposed to start.

因為它似乎有點接近生產應該開始的時間。

Well, there's really 3 things.

嗯，真的有3件事。

There's the cell, the module and the pack.

有電池、模塊和電池組。

We will be making the module and the pack.

我們將製作模塊和包。

So it's really just a question of cell supply.

所以這實際上只是一個電池供應的問題。

And we can essentially use any high energy density 2170 chemistry.

我們基本上可以使用任何高能量密度的 2170 化學物質。

And we expect it to be a combination of cells produced at our Gigafactory in Nevada, cells produced in Japan and cells produced locally in China.

我們預計它將是我們在內華達州超級工廠生產的電池、日本生產的電池和中國本地生產的電池的組合。

And we feel confident of there's sufficient supply to hit the 3,000 units a week.

我們有信心每週供應 3,000 台。

Our next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

First, I wanted to ask you about the short-range Model 3. What are your latest thoughts in terms of timing of introduction?

首先，我想問您關於短程 Model 3 的問題。您對推出時間的最新想法是什麼？

I think at some point, you had in mind to do it in the -- maybe the first half of this year.

我認為在某個時候，您可能會考慮在今年上半年這樣做。

And just to clarify, when you're sort of talking about the outlook for 2019, the number of deliveries up 50% and then the margin target for Model 3 to get to 25%, does that assume that you're introducing a lower range, the short-range Model 3 at some point during the year?

澄清一下，當您談到 2019 年的前景時，交付數量增加 50%，然後 Model 3 的利潤率目標達到 25%，這是否假設您正在引入較低的範圍，年內某個時候的短程 Model 3？

Well, we call it the standard range, but it's maybe short by Tesla's standards, but it's long range by other manufacturers' standards.

好吧，我們稱它為標準續航里程，但按照特斯拉的標準它可能很短，但按照其他製造商的標準它是長續航里程。

So -- but yes, we expect to introduce the standard range Model 3 sometime, probably the middle of this year is a rough -- rough guess.

所以 - 但是是的，我們希望在某個時候推出標準系列 Model 3，可能今年年中是一個粗略的猜測。

And we're working hard to improve our costs of production, our overhead costs, our fixed costs, just costs in general.

我們正在努力改善我們的生產成本、間接成本、固定成本，只是一般成本。

I think this past year, while extremely difficult, has driven us to a high level of financial discipline.

我認為過去的一年雖然極其困難，但已將我們推向了高水平的財務紀律。

I think we're way smarter about how we spend money, and we're getting better with each passing week.

我認為我們在如何花錢方面變得更加聰明，而且我們每週都在變得更好。

Yes.

是的。

And so to be clear, the -- you expect to reach at some point this year, or you're targeting at some point this year, 25% gross margin on Model 3, and that's despite introducing the lower-end, or I guess, the standard range Model 3. Is that correct?

所以要明確一點，你預計今年某個時候，或者你的目標是今年某個時候，Model 3 的毛利率為 25%，儘管引入了低端，或者我猜，標準範圍Model 3。是這樣嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

And I guess, my follow-up would be on the demand side.

我想，我的後續行動將在需求方面。

So you're talking about 50% increase this year.

所以你說的是今年增加了 50%。

You said a few times that it could be higher than this.

你說過幾次，它可能比這更高。

I think you just mentioned in the previous question 350,000 to 500,000, if I understood well.

我想你剛才在上一個問題中提到了 350,000 到 500,000，如果我理解得很好的話。

So what is sort of like what drives the cautious outlook that's in your letter?

那麼，是什麼推動了你信中的謹慎前景？

Because it feels like it's the -- it's just basically 4x the fourth quarter run rate, which would imply sort of 50% for the full year, but not really a lot of growth versus what you just accomplished.

因為感覺就像是 - 它基本上只是第四季度運行率的 4 倍，這意味著全年增長 50%，但與您剛剛完成的相比，增長並不多。

So I guess, how do we think about the total demand for 2019, especially if you introduce this -- the cheaper version?

所以我想，我們如何看待 2019 年的總需求，特別是如果你介紹這個——更便宜的版本？

Well, we need to bring the Shanghai factory online.

那麼，我們需要讓上海工廠上線。

I think that's the biggest variable for getting to 500k-plus a year.

我認為這是一年達到 50 萬以上的最大變數。

Our car is just very expensive going into China.

我們的汽車進入中國非常昂貴。

We've got import duties.

我們有進口關稅。

We've got transport costs.

我們有運輸費用。

We've got higher-cost labor here.

我們這裡有更高成本的勞動力。

And we've never been eligible for any of the EV tax credits.

而且我們從來沒有資格獲得任何電動汽車稅收抵免。

A lot of people (inaudible) being so dependent on incentives.

很多人（聽不清）非常依賴激勵措施。

In fact, we are, for a company making EVs, we have the least access to incentives.

事實上，對於一家製造電動汽車的公司，我們獲得激勵的機會最少。

It's pretty crazy, because there's so many companies that, that -- countries that have put price caps on the EV incentive, which differentially affect Tesla.

這太瘋狂了，因為有太多的公司——那些國家對電動汽車的激勵措施設置了價格上限，這對特斯拉產生了不同的影響。

And in China, which is the biggest market for EVs, we've never had any subsidies or tax incentives for vehicles.

而在中國這個最大的電動汽車市場，我們從來沒有為汽車提供任何補貼或稅收優惠。

So it's difficult.

所以很難。

Once a car is made there, it is eligible for that.

一旦汽車在那裡製造，它就有資格獲得。

But it sounds like that's going to be reducing in China in the coming years.

但聽起來這在未來幾年在中國將會減少。

But really, bottom line is, we need the Shanghai factory to achieve that 10k rate and have the cars be affordable.

但實際上，底線是，我們需要上海工廠達到 10k 的速度並讓汽車價格實惠。

The demand for -- it's important to appreciate, the demand for Model 3 is insanely high.

對模型 3 的需求非常高，這一點很重要。

The inhibitor is affordability.

抑製劑是負擔得起的。

It's just like people literally don't have the money to buy the car.

就像人們真的沒有錢買車一樣。

It's got nothing to do with desire.

跟慾望無關。

They just don't have enough money in their bank account.

他們只是在他們的銀行賬戶裡沒有足夠的錢。

If the car can be made more affordable, the demand is extraordinary.

如果汽車可以變得更實惠，那麼需求是非凡的。

Our next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

So Deepak, I was wondering, so as you get to 2019, we're all concerned about a potential recession, and I was wondering how you think about it and what you would tell us about what we should expect -- how we should expect Tesla to react to a recession in 2019.

所以迪帕克，我想知道，當你到 2019 年時，我們都擔心潛在的衰退，我想知道你是如何看待它的，你會告訴我們我們應該期待什麼——我們應該如何期待特斯拉將在 2019 年應對經濟衰退。

How do you manage your volume [LAM]?

你如何管理你的音量 [LAM]？

How do you manage your pricing?

你如何管理你的定價？

How do you possess cash?

你如何擁有現金？

How do you manage your CapEx if things turn south in 2019?

如果情況在 2019 年向南，您將如何管理您的資本支出？

And then I have a follow-up on gross margin for Jerome.

然後我對杰羅姆的毛利率進行了跟進。

Yes, it's a very broad question, which is not really just for me to answer.

是的，這是一個非常廣泛的問題，不只是讓我來回答。

But I think at the highest level, the way we are trying to be prepared for any kind of contingency is to just continue focusing on cost.

但我認為，在最高層面上，我們試圖為任何突發事件做好準備的方式就是繼續關注成本。

And the theme of our conversations here is, how do we reduce cost all the time?

我們在這裡談話的主題是，我們如何一直降低成本？

And how do we run our business with a very high level of financial discipline?

我們如何以非常高水平的財務紀律經營我們的業務？

And Elon alluded to that and so did Jerome, I think.

埃隆提到了這一點，杰羅姆也提到了這一點，我想。

That if we do that, we believe that even in some of the scenarios of lower volumes and pricing, tight pricing, we do have a good chance and a good shot of being profitable and generate free cash flow.

如果我們這樣做，我們相信即使在一些銷量和定價較低、定價緊張的情況下，我們確實有很好的機會和良好的盈利機會並產生自由現金流。

So that's the best way to manage the business, be frugal.

所以這是管理業務的最佳方式，要節儉。

Yes, I don't want to be a broken record about this, it's costs, costs, costs, cost, because reducing our costs -- by the way, while making modest improvements to Model 3, I want to emphasize, the product is getting better by slight degrees despite lower cost, in hundreds of small ways, that you actually wouldn't -- most people wouldn't notice explicitly, but they would appreciate subconsciously.

是的，我不想打破記錄，這是成本、成本、成本、成本，因為降低了我們的成本——順便說一下，在對 Model 3 進行適度改進的同時，我想強調的是，產品是儘管成本降低了，但在數百個小方面，你實際上並不會——大多數人不會明確地註意到，但他們會下意識地欣賞。

And getting those costs down, variable costs and fixed costs, is what allows us to lower the price and be financially sustainable and achieve our mission of environmental sustainability.

降低這些成本、可變成本和固定成本，使我們能夠降低價格、實現財務可持續發展並實現我們的環境可持續發展使命。

So we have to be absolute zealots about this, there's no question.

所以我們必須對此絕對狂熱，這是毫無疑問的。

The other aspect of this, Elon, which we've been doing extremely well, is capital efficiency.

另一個方面，埃隆，我們一直做得非常好，是資本效率。

We have dramatically cut back on capital expense, and we are spending it in a very efficient manner.

我們大幅削減了資本支出，而且我們正在以一種非常有效的方式進行支出。

We talk about it in the letter on Model 3 and Gigafactory Shanghai.

我們在關於 Model 3 和 Gigafactory Shanghai 的信中談到了它。

We talk about it for Model Y. There are just so many learnings that we are incorporating.

我們為 Model Y 談論它。我們正在吸收的知識太多了。

And we just want to beat what we did with Model 3 and the kind of spending we had for the returns we got.

我們只是想擊敗我們對 Model 3 所做的事情以及我們為獲得回報而進行的支出。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

I mean, like, we're confident that our CapEx per unit of production for Shanghai factory and for Model Y will be less than half of what we did for Model 3. Internally, we think it might be a quarter, but that's probably too good to believe, but it's definitely less than half.

我的意思是，我們有信心上海工廠和 Model Y 的每單位生產資本支出將不到 Model 3 的一半。在內部，我們認為可能是四分之一，但也可能如此令人難以置信，但肯定不到一半。

Our next question comes from David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的大衛坦貝里諾。

First thing I want to just understand is on what you're seeing from European orders and China orders so far.

我想了解的第一件事是到目前為止您從歐洲訂單和中國訂單中看到的情況。

There are some numbers that get thrown around, but you guys are obviously taking a look at it.

有一些數字被拋出，但你們顯然正在看它。

How is that order profile shaping up relative to what you saw in the U.S. with the launch of the 3?

隨著 3 的推出，與您在美國看到的情況相比，該訂單概況如何？

I think it seems good.

我認為這似乎很好。

I mean, our issue actually with Europe and China is how do we get the cars made and on a boat as such that it reaches customers before end of quarter and we don't have a massive number of cars on the water.

我的意思是，我們實際上與歐洲和中國的問題是我們如何製造汽車並裝上船，以便在季度末之前到達客戶手中，而且我們沒有大量的汽車在水上。

That's our biggest challenge.

這是我們最大的挑戰。

It's not demand.

這不是需求。

It's how do we get the cars there fast enough.

這就是我們如何讓汽車足夠快地到達那裡。

So like orders above, I think I've seen like 20,000 order levels for Europe and single-digit thousands for China, it's better than that, Elon?

所以就像上面的訂單一樣，我想我已經看到歐洲有 20,000 個訂單水平和中國的個位數數千個訂單水平，這比這更好，Elon？

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

The -- I mean, we're not even really trying, I should point out.

- 我的意思是，我們甚至沒有真正嘗試過，我應該指出。

I guess, it's -- we -- our factory is like, right now, only making cars for China and Europe.

我想，它是——我們——我們的工廠現在就像只為中國和歐洲生產汽車。

That's all it's doing for -- with respect to Model 3. And our whole focus is, okay, how do we get those cars made, get them on a ship as fast as possible, get the ship as fast as possible to Zeebrugge in Belgium, then get them over to Drammen in Norway and get those cars to customers as fast as possible.

這就是它所做的一切——關於 Model 3。我們的全部重點是，好吧，我們如何製造這些汽車，讓它們盡快上船，盡快把船送到比利時的澤布呂赫，然後將它們送到挪威的德拉門，並儘快將這些汽車送到客戶手中。

We get them to China as fast as possible.

我們會盡快將他們送到中國。

And China, we're also -- yes, we don't what's going to happen with the trade negotiations.

中國，我們也是——是的，我們不知道貿易談判會發生什麼。

So it's very important to get those cars, especially to China, as soon as possible.

所以盡快拿到這些車是非常重要的，尤其是到中國。

We hope the trade negotiations go well, but it's not clear.

我們希望貿易談判進展順利，但目前還不清楚。

But we need to get them there while there's sort of a de facto -- sort of a truce on the tariff war.

但是我們需要讓他們在那裡，而事實上存在某種事實 - 某種意義上的關稅戰休戰。

And the demand gen is really not one of the things we're thinking about.

需求生成確實不是我們正在考慮的事情之一。

Okay.

好的。

Then just lastly on this demand thread, customer deposits came in again over $100 million.

最後，在這條需求線上，客戶存款再次超過 1 億美元。

Is it possible to give us an update?

可以給我們更新嗎？

I know you don't think it's really a relevant number, but I do and I'll explain why.

我知道你不認為這真的是一個相關的數字，但我會，我會解釋原因。

On the reservation count, where you were at 450,000, you started delivering.

在預訂數量為 450,000 時，您開始交付。

And I ask this because I think we're just all trying to understand how much incremental demand you think there is based on what you see at that lower price point if, say, there's over half of those people that are still waiting for that 75k base model to come out.

我問這個是因為我認為我們只是想根據你在那個較低的價格點看到的情況來了解你認為有多少增量需求，比如說，如果有超過一半的人仍在等待那 75k基本型號問世。

That would be interesting, and I think that's what you're seeing, but I just want to confirm that.

那會很有趣，我認為這就是你所看到的，但我只是想確認一下。

So Deepak, do you want to...?

那麼迪帕克，你想……嗎？

Yes, I mean, I think reservations are not relevant for us.

是的，我的意思是，我認為保留與我們無關。

We are really focused on orders.

我們真正專注於訂單。

Now we do have a large reservations backlog still, which tells us that a lot of customers are still waiting for those cars, but I don't think it's appropriate to share the reservations number.

現在我們確實還有大量的預訂積壓，這告訴我們很多客戶仍在等待這些車，但我認為分享預訂號不合適。

Reservations are just like preorders.

預訂就像預訂一樣。

It's like you have like some video game come out and it's like a preorder number, then that's like -- stops being important once you start shipping the game or product.

就像你有一些視頻遊戲出來了，它就像一個預訂號碼，然後就像 - 一旦你開始發布遊戲或產品，它就不再重要了。

So yes, as I said earlier, I think -- my guess is demand is somewhere on the order -- in a strong economy, is on the order of 700,000 or 800,000 units a year for Model 3 and even in a recession is probably on the order of 0.5 million.

所以，是的，正如我之前所說，我認為 - 我的猜測是需求量在訂單上 - 在強勁的經濟中，Model 3 的年產量約為 700,000 或 800,000 輛，即使在經濟衰退中也可能出現50萬的數量級。

Our next question comes from Daniel Ives with Wedbush Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Daniel Ives。

So my question is around Europe.

所以我的問題是關於歐洲的。

Obviously, with deliveries coming onboard in the first quarter, maybe what surprised you in terms of -- demand looks strong, but in terms of what you're seeing out of the region, is it stronger than you expected in certain countries?

顯然，隨著第一季度的交付，您可能會感到驚訝——需求看起來很強勁，但就您在該地區看到的情況而言，某些國家的需求是否比您預期的要強？

What do you think is driving that?

你認為是什麼推動了這一點？

And maybe you can just talk about the opportunities and challenges in Europe, especially from a delivery logistics perspective.

也許你可以談談歐洲的機遇和挑戰，尤其是從配送物流的角度來看。

Well, like I said, we're thinking about demand almost 0 right now.

好吧，就像我說的，我們現在考慮的需求幾乎為零。

It's really getting the product there in time and not having a ton of cars on the water end of the quarter and then for China, getting cars there before there's a potential rise in tariffs.

它真的是及時將產品送到那裡，並且在本季度末沒有大量汽車停水，然後對中國來說，在關稅可能上漲之前將汽車送到那裡。

That's really -- put really at front of mind, that cost reduction and then improving service in North America, yes.

這真的是——把成本放在首位，然後改善北美的服務，是的。

And just maybe a quick follow-up.

也許只是一個快速的跟進。

Can you just talk about, when we look at the Gigafactory build-out in China and obviously how important that is, maybe just fast forward, let's say, 18, 24 months, I mean, how do you envision that as just a competitive advantage versus maybe some other automakers that will be trying to go in your tracks?

你能談談，當我們看 Gigafactory 在中國的擴建時，顯然這是多麼重要，也許只是快進，比如說，18、24 個月，我的意思是，你如何看待這只是一個競爭優勢與可能會嘗試進入您的軌道的其他一些汽車製造商相比？

I think it will be quite a significant advantage.

我認為這將是一個非常重要的優勢。

I really view it as quite fundamental to the future of Tesla, and I expect to make several trips to China this year.

我真的認為這對特斯拉的未來非常重要，我預計今年將多次前往中國。

And I'm working very closely with the team building the factory.

我正在與建造工廠的團隊密切合作。

I literally get daily updates.

我真的每天都有更新。

So it's a super big deal and we're only just talking about Phase 1 here.

所以這是一件大事，我們在這裡只討論第一階段。

Phase 1 is about 10% of what we think the Gigafactory will ultimately be.

第一階段大約是我們認為 Gigafactory 最終規模的 10%。

So it's a major, major, major deal.

所以這是一個重大的、重大的、重大的交易。

And we're getting a lot of support from the Shanghai government, which we're very appreciative of, and the national government.

我們得到了上海市政府和中央政府的大力支持，對此我們非常感激。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦。

You've talked repeatedly about the need to drive down costs, which in turn drives elasticity of demand for cars.

您反復談到降低成本的必要性，這反過來又會推動汽車需求的彈性。

And I'm wondering if you can talk about how much of the price differential between the $50,000 Model 3 and the $35,000 Model 3 is structural, meaning that powertrain costs for EVs are just structurally higher than they are for internal combustion engine cars?

我想知道你能否談談 50,000 美元的 Model 3 和 35,000 美元的 Model 3 之間的價格差異有多少是結構性的，這意味著電動汽車的動力總成成本在結構上高於內燃機汽車的成本？

And where you think that difference is today and when that is no longer a factor?

你認為今天的差異在哪裡，什麼時候不再是一個因素？

So is -- or maybe said another way, is the bigger driver in getting to lower costs and lower -- and more affordability on the Model 3, is it really around the powertrain and getting that at parity?

那麼——或者換一種說法，更大的驅動力是降低成本和降低——以及 Model 3 的更多可負擔性，它真的圍繞動力總成並達到同等水平嗎？

Or is it everything else about Tesla not being as efficient as other manufacturers that is causing the higher price right now?

或者是因為特斯拉沒有其他製造商那麼高效，導致現在價格上漲？

And have I follow-up, please.

請我跟進一下。

It's both, it's both the vehicle and both the powertrain.

兩者兼而有之，既是車輛，又是動力系統。

So I split my time half and half between the Gigafactory and here, and there is opportunities in both, yes.

所以我在 Gigafactory 和這里之間分配了一半的時間，兩者都有機會，是的。

But I think the bigger point is that, yes, there is cost reduction opportunities out, but the bigger point is not that our cost is higher than a gas-powered or an internal combustion engine.

但我認為更大的一點是，是的，有降低成本的機會，但更大的一點不是我們的成本高於燃氣或內燃機。

I think what Toni meant is with a battery pack, as in battery pack as well as the powertrain together, are more expensive than an engine.

我認為托尼的意思是電池組，就像電池組和動力總成一樣，比發動機更貴。

That's true.

確實如此。

And how big do you think that delta is today?

你認為今天的三角洲有多大？

And when it's -- do you think of it as being kind of $10,000, $11,000 for that pack plus powertrain for an electric vehicle and maybe $5,000 or $6,000 for an internal combustion engine car?

當它是 - 你是否認為它是 10,000 美元，11,000 美元的包裝加上電動汽車的動力系統以及內燃機汽車的 5,000 或 6,000 美元？

And is that sort of the order of magnitude?

那是數量級嗎？

And where do you see those getting much more aligned, just sort of given the laws of where you think cell and pack costs are going?

鑑於您認為電池和電池組成本的發展規律，您認為它們在哪裡變得更加一致？

Well, the biggest part to bear in mind is the cost of electricity is quite a bit less than the cost of gasoline, especially in Europe or in California or China, basically almost everywhere except, say, the middle of the United States, the cost of gasoline is very expensive and electricity is far cheaper.

嗯，要記住的最重要的部分是電力成本比汽油成本低得多，尤其是在歐洲、加利福尼亞或中國，基本上幾乎所有地方，比如美國中部，成本汽油非常昂貴，而電力則便宜得多。

The -- so that factors into the cost of ownership pretty significantly.

- 因此，擁有成本的因素相當顯著。

It's on -- sort of on the order of $50 to $100 a month, depending upon how much somebody drives.

它在 - 每月大約 50 到 100 美元，具體取決於某人開車的次數。

So that's a very important thing to consider for an electric car versus a gasoline car.

因此，對於電動汽車與汽油汽車相比，這是一個非常重要的考慮因素。

The -- that said, in terms of initial cost of acquisition, I think it's probably -- this is just off the top of my head, not a calculated number, probably on the order of 7k, but trending towards 4k or 5k.

- 也就是說，就最初的購置成本而言，我認為這可能是 - 這只是我的想法，不是一個計算出來的數字，可能在 7k 左右，但趨向於 4k 或 5k。

Just off the top of my head.

就在我的頭上。

Okay.

好的。

And as you think about 2019, you talked about sort of scenarios for demand and how you plan to roll out the intermediate range and then ultimately the standard range.

當您考慮 2019 年時，您談到了某種需求情景，以及您計劃如何推出中間產品系列，然後最終推出標準產品系列。

What is -- if you do have to make a trade-off on volume or profitability during the course of the year, meaning to get the volume you need or you think you can deliver, you have to go to lower margins or vice versa, where's the trade-off?

什麼是 - 如果您在一年中必須在數量或盈利能力上進行權衡，這意味著獲得您需要的數量或您認為可以交付，您必須降低利潤率，反之亦然，權衡在哪裡？

Is -- are units produced most important to you?

是——生產的單位對你來說最重要嗎？

Or is delivering the 25% gross margin more important?

還是實現 25% 的毛利率更重要？

So if you have a chance to deliver 450,000 or 500,000 cars, but they'll be more standard editions and gross margins will end the year at 20%, is that -- are you willing to make that trade-off?

因此，如果您有機會交付 450,000 或 500,000 輛汽車，但它們將是更標準的版本，並且年底毛利率將達到 20%，您願意做出這種權衡嗎？

Yes, my guess is it ends up being sort of about the six in one, half dozen the other, where if there's a given amount of free cash flow, you sort of decide -- you decide to achieve that with a smaller production or smaller volume of cars at a higher margin or large volume cars at a smaller margin.

是的，我的猜測是它最終大約是六合一，六合一，如果有給定數量的自由現金流，你可以決定——你決定用更小或更小的產量來實現這一目標利潤較高的汽車數量或較小利潤的大量汽車。

I think we're already towards the second.

我想我們已經邁向第二個了。

We're going to make more cars at a lower margin, but I think it's more or less a flat rate.

我們將以更低的利潤率生產更多的汽車，但我認為這或多或少是一個固定的利率。

Our next question comes from Maynard Um with Macquarie.

我們的下一個問題來自 Maynard Um 和 Macquarie。

Can you just update us on where battery costs are now and where you anticipate they'll be by year-end?

您能否向我們介紹一下電池成本現在的情況以及您預計到年底的情況？

I'm just trying to gauge how much of a factor this is to lowering costs and sustaining profitability.

我只是想衡量這對降低成本和維持盈利能力有多大影響。

That's a highly proprietary number.

這是一個高度專有的數字。

We cannot give it out.

我們不能給它。

I'd like to tell you, but no.

我想告訴你，但沒有。

We do think we have the best costs in the world.

我們確實認為我們擁有世界上最好的成本。

We're -- to the best of our knowledge, our costs are better than anyone else right now and they're improving.

我們 - 據我們所知，我們的成本現在比其他任何人都好，而且他們正在改善。

And maybe talk about your expectations with the Panasonic-Toyota JV and how it might impact you.

或許可以談談您對鬆下-豐田合資企業的期望以及它對您的影響。

Was this something that you were made aware of?

這是你被告知的事情嗎？

I spoke directly with Tsuga-san about this, the Head of Panasonic, and he has assured me this will have no impact on Tesla.

我直接與松下負責人津賀先生談過這件事，他向我保證這不會對特斯拉產生影響。

Our next question comes from Dan Galves with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Dan Galves。

Do you plan to offer a U.S. lease product for Model 3 in the U.S.?

您是否計劃在美國為 Model 3 提供美國租賃產品？

When can we expect it?

我們什麼時候可以期待它？

And can you talk about what percentage of S and X have historically been leased in the U.S.?

你能談談歷史上在美國租用的 S 和 X 的百分比嗎？

Well, we've been reluctant to introduce the leasing on Model 3 because of how -- of its effect on GAAP financials.

好吧，我們一直不願意在 Model 3 上引入租賃，因為它對 GAAP 財務的影響。

So it is worth noting that demand to date is with 0 leasing.

因此值得注意的是，迄今為止的需求是 0 租賃。

So obviously, leasing is a way to improve demand, but it has -- it makes our financials looks worse.

很明顯，租賃是改善需求的一種方式，但它確實讓我們的財務狀況看起來更糟。

So we're like -- we're not wanting to introduce that right away.

所以我們就像 - 我們不想馬上介紹它。

I mean, we'll introduce it sometime later this year probably.

我的意思是，我們可能會在今年晚些時候推出它。

What -- I'm not sure the percentage of lease is for S and X right now.

什麼——我不確定現在 S 和 X 的租賃百分比。

It's around 20%, low 20s, and it stayed stable at that level for many, many quarters, which is -- it seems like the natural demand because we don't do subvention or artificially bump up...

它大約是 20%，20 多歲，並且在很多很多季度都保持在這個水平上，這似乎是自然的需求，因為我們不進行補貼或人為地增加......

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Our leases are legit.

我們的租約是合法的。

The -- it usually affects small business tax write-off, is important for the -- for leasing, so.

- 它通常會影響小企業的稅收核銷，對租賃很重要，所以。

Okay.

好的。

And then I have just, like, 2 quick housekeeping questions.

然後我有兩個快速的家務問題。

One, is there a restructuring charge that you expect in the first quarter?

一，您預計第一季度是否會有重組費用？

How much is it?

多少錢？

And is it included in your expectation of a small profit?

它是否包含在您對微利的期望中？

Yes, it is included in that.

是的，它包含在其中。

It's difficult to say exactly what that is.

很難確切地說那是什麼。

At this point, it's, let's say, roughly around $40 million, but that number can vary slightly.

在這一點上，假設大約是 4000 萬美元，但這個數字可能會略有不同。

Okay.

好的。

And then just the last one is...

然後只有最後一個是...

Sorry, go ahead.

對不起，繼續。

Yes, the last one is, this change in your service parts structure to make things more distributed rather than in the parts warehouses, would that be like a meaningful working capital drag?

是的，最後一個是，您的服務零件結構的這種變化使事情更加分散而不是零件倉庫，這是否會像一個有意義的營運資金拖累？

What's the cash impact of that?

這對現金有什麼影響？

No, it's actually -- we've just been very silly about where we store our parts.

不，實際上是——我們只是在存放零件的位置上非常愚蠢。

So it's actually going to be no change in sort of working capital or not something you would even notice in the financials.

因此，實際上營運資金的種類不會發生變化，或者您甚至不會在財務中註意到這一點。

It's just being smarter about sending parts directly to service centers, in fact, either directly from our factory here or from our suppliers, and just ship them direct to the service center.

實際上，直接從我們這裡的工廠或我們的供應商那裡直接將零件發送到服務中心只是更聰明，然後將它們直接運送到服務中心。

Right now -- actually, our costs will improve, I think, actually quite a lot, because there's been actually quite -- the current system is quite boneheaded, actually, speaking self-referentially.

現在 - 實際上，我們的成本會提高，我認為，實際上很多，因為實際上已經相當 - 當前的系統非常愚蠢，實際上，自我參照。

So just being -- so stopping doing the foolish things will massively improve our service costs, will massively improve customer happiness around the world, and it's just fundamentally better all around.

因此，停止做愚蠢的事情將大大提高我們的服務成本，將大大提高全球客戶的幸福感，而且從根本上來說，一切都會變得更好。

I mean, there are some pretty -- like we've been just like super dumb in some of the things we've done, where -- like, on one of the trips to China last year, I always ask, "Okay, what are we doing wrong?

我的意思是，有一些漂亮的——就像我們在我們所做的一些事情上就像超級愚蠢一樣——比如，去年去中國的一次旅行中，我總是問，“好吧，我們做錯了什麼？

What can we fix?" And like our China team is great, by the way.

我們能解決什麼問題？”順便說一句，我們的中國團隊很棒。

They're like, "Well, do you think we could have spare parts that are made in China just sent directly to our China service centers?

他們就像，“嗯，你認為我們可以將中國製造的備件直接送到我們的中國服務中心嗎？

Because currently, there's a bunch of parts that are made in China, then sent to a warehouse in New Jersey and then sent back to China." Literally, what was happening.

因為目前，有一堆零件是在中國製造的，然後送到新澤西的一個倉庫，然後再送回中國。”字面意思是發生了什麼。

It's super nuts stuff.

這是超級瘋狂的東西。

So it's going to get way better.

所以它會變得更好。

And yes, it's very clear.

是的，非常清楚。

Our next question comes from Ben Kallo with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ben Kallo 和 Baird。

I have 1 question and it's got 4 parts to it.

我有 1 個問題，它有 4 個部分。

Happy new year, Elon.

新年快樂，埃隆。

So the first part is, so our Street numbers, like consensus, we've gotten everything wrong for 6 years or 7 years since you went public, and there are about $6 in earnings.

所以第一部分是，所以我們的街道數據，就像共識一樣，自從你上市以來，我們在 6 年或 7 年裡都搞錯了，大約有 6 美元的收入。

Talk to us about that if you can.

如果可以的話，和我們談談。

Number two, Elon, could you talk to us about -- can you talk about -- I hear you cut some workforce at SpaceX and there at Tesla and I feel that you have a worry about global economy.

第二，埃隆，你能和我們談談 - 你能談談 - 我聽說你在 SpaceX 和特斯拉裁員，我覺得你擔心全球經濟。

Can you talk to us about how you feel about that with your guidance in order -- in the same order?

您能否按照順序 - 以相同的順序與我們談談您對此的感受？

And then can we talk about, maybe for the third thing, for JV, no one's ever going to talk about stationary storage, but we got a whole page on that, which looked pretty good to me, and what should we be focusing on that?

然後我們可以談談，也許是第三件事，對於合資企業，沒有人會談論固定存儲，但是我們有一整頁的內容，這對我來說看起來不錯，我們應該關注什麼?

And what can that add to the bottom line on top of that $6 this next year?

明年在這 6 美元的基礎上增加什麼？

I mean, we can't really, Ben, talk about consensus and what that means.

我的意思是，我們真的不能，本，談論共識以及這意味著什麼。

I think we are -- maybe the better approach is we are providing certain guidance here and you and the other analysts need to reflect that in your modeling.

我認為我們是 - 也許更好的方法是我們在這裡提供某些指導，您和其他分析師需要在您的建模中反映這一點。

And that's the best indication from the company of our projections.

這是公司對我們預測的最好指示。

In all fairness, that's the best way I can think of answering your question here.

平心而論，這是我能想到的在這裡回答您的問題的最佳方式。

Yes, J.B., is there anything you want to say?

是的，J.B.，你有什麼想說的嗎？

I mean, I think the letter outlines the predicted growth in the battery storage business, the stationary storage business pretty clearly, and that should be included in the projections as well.

我的意思是，我認為這封信非常清楚地概述了電池存儲業務、固定存儲業務的預測增長，這也應該包含在預測中。

So I mean, we're excited about it, but I can't say much more detail.

所以我的意思是，我們對此感到興奮，但我不能說更多細節。

I mean, our internal projections for stationary storage are closer to 3 gigawatt hours.

我的意思是，我們對固定存儲的內部預測接近 3 吉瓦時。

But some of it is kind of lumpy and may not be completed this year.

但其中一些有點笨拙，今年可能無法完成。

We would have done more in stationary storage last year except we were cell-starved for vehicle production, so we had to convert a bunch of stationary storage lines, battery lines, to vehicle battery lines.

去年我們在固定存儲方面會做得更多，除非我們對汽車生產缺乏電池，所以我們不得不將一堆固定存儲線、電池線轉換為汽車電池線。

Otherwise, we would have done quite a bit more in stationary storage.

否則，我們會在固定存儲方面做得更多。

I expect that to grow, I mean, probably twice as fast as automotive for short -- a long time.

我希望它的增長，我的意思是，在短期內可能是汽車的兩倍——很長一段時間。

We continue to set production records basically every month, so that's growing.

我們基本上每個月都在繼續創造生產記錄，所以這種情況正在增長。

And the profitability of the storage business and the gross margin continue to improve as we keep ramping up production and scale.

隨著我們不斷提高產量和規模，存儲業務的盈利能力和毛利率繼續提高。

It's going to be a gigantic business down the road.

這將是一項巨大的業務。

And the last question was about economy, global economy.

最後一個問題是關於經濟，全球經濟。

Sure.

當然。

I mean, I do think that the economy moves in cycles and there's clearly a significant risk of a recession over the next 12 to 18 months, but I'm confident that Tesla will remain at least slightly profitable, even with -- even if there is a significant recession.

我的意思是，我確實認為經濟是周期性變化的，未來 12 到 18 個月顯然存在很大的經濟衰退風險，但我相信特斯拉至少會保持微弱的盈利，即使——即使有是嚴重的衰退。

And then when -- and be all the stronger for it when the recession ends.

然後是什麼時候——並且在衰退結束時變得更加強大。

And the -- yes, we have to be relentless about cost in order to make affordable cars and not go bankrupt.

而且 - 是的，我們必須對成本毫不留情，才能製造出負擔得起的汽車而不是破產。

That's what our headcount reduction is about, yes, yes.

這就是我們裁員的目的，是的，是的。

I think we have to -- it's -- we have to be super hardcore about it.

我認為我們必須——它是——我們必須對此非常鐵桿。

It's the only way to make affordable cars.

這是製造負擔得起的汽車的唯一方法。

The -- on the SpaceX side, the cost reduction was for a different reason unrelated to -- it was -- SpaceX has really -- SpaceX has 2 absolutely insane projects that would normally bankrupt a company, the Starship and Starlink, and so SpaceX has to be incredibly spartan with expenditures until those programs reach fruition.

- 在 SpaceX 方面，降低成本的原因與 - 它是 - SpaceX 確實 - SpaceX 有兩個絕對瘋狂的項目，通常會使公司破產，Starship 和 Starlink，所以 SpaceX在這些計劃取得成果之前，必須非常節省開支。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

I think that's all we have time for today.

我想這就是我們今天的全部時間。

Thank you very much for your questions, and Elon would like to have some closing remarks.

非常感謝您的提問，Elon 想發表一些結束語。

Yes, so let's see -- the -- so Deepak is -- well, I'll let you make the announcement, but Deepak is going to be retiring.

是的，讓我們來看看——迪帕克是——好吧，我會讓你宣布，但迪帕克將退休。

Again.

再次。

Yes, from Tesla.

是的，來自特斯拉。

Yes.

是的。

Deepak, I think it's been -- you first started with Tesla about 11 years ago, right?

迪帕克，我認為是——你大約 11 年前開始接觸特斯拉，對吧？

It's been close to that, yes.

已經接近了，是的。

Yes, almost 11 years.

是的，差不多11年了。

Thank you for your tremendous contribution to Tesla.

感謝您對特斯拉的巨大貢獻。

And he's announcing retirement but the retirement will not be immediate, but Deepak will continue to be at Tesla for a few more months and will continue to serve as a senior adviser to Tesla for probably years to come, hopefully.

他宣布退休，但不會立即退休，但迪帕克將繼續在特斯拉工作幾個月，並有望在未來幾年繼續擔任特斯拉的高級顧問。

And we thought long and hard about who the right person is to take over from Deepak, and that's Zach.

我們仔細考慮了誰是接替迪帕克的合適人選，那就是紮克。

And Zach has been with Tesla now for 9 years...

扎克已經在特斯拉工作了 9 年……

9 years.

9 年。

Yes, so Zach, management and technology at Wharton undergrad and then worked at Tesla and then spent a couple of years at Harvard Business School, which I actually don't think was necessary, by the way.

是的，所以 Zach，在沃頓商學院讀管理和技術，然後在特斯拉工作，然後在哈佛商學院工作了幾年，順便說一句，我實際上認為沒有必要。

You told me that when I came back.

我回來的時候你告訴我的。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

So Zach's incredibly talented and has made a huge contribution to Tesla over the years, and obviously, a very well-known quantity to the whole team and has the respect of the whole team.

所以扎克才華橫溢，多年來為特斯拉做出了巨大的貢獻，顯然，對整個團隊來說，這是一個非常有名的數量，得到了整個團隊的尊重。

And Zach, I don't know if you'd like to say a few words?

Zach，我不知道你是否願意說幾句話？

Yes, I will.

是的，我會。

Okay.

好的。

Or do you want, Deepak, do you want to say this?

還是你想要，迪帕克，你想說這個嗎？

Deepak?

迪帕克？

Sure, okay.

當然可以。

Thank you, yes.

謝謝，是的。

Well, first of all, Elon, thank you very much for the opportunity for me to be here and be here again a second time.

嗯，首先，埃隆，非常感謝你給我機會讓我再次來到這裡並再次來到這裡。

I've learned a lot from you and I've been always inspired by you, and I've been also very inspired by the team at Tesla, who are incredibly brilliant, very passionate and just amazingly perseverant, the best team I could imagine.

我從你身上學到了很多，我一直受到你的啟發，我也受到特斯拉團隊的啟發，他們非常聰明，非常熱情，而且非常堅持不懈，是我能想像的最好的團隊.

So thank you, everybody, for that.

所以，謝謝大家。

There is no good time to make this change.

現在還不是進行此更改的好時機。

We felt this was a good time.

我們覺得這是一段美好的時光。

It's a new chapter, a new year.

這是新的篇章，新的一年。

Tesla has had 2 great quarters of profitability, cash flow, it's on a really solid foundation.

特斯拉已經有兩個季度的盈利能力和現金流，這是一個非常堅實的基礎。

And I feel really good about Zach taking over as the CFO.

我對 Zach 接任首席財務官感覺非常好。

He's proven himself with his many years of experience and many tough challenges that he's worked on and really excited to have Zach take on this role, and I'll be here to support him and make sure we are all successful as a company.

他以多年的經驗和他所從事的許多艱鉅挑戰證明了自己，並且非常高興讓 Zach 擔任這個角色，我將在這裡支持他並確保我們作為一家公司取得成功。

Yes, well, thank you, Deepak.

是的，好吧，謝謝你，迪帕克。

Thank you, Elon.

謝謝你，埃隆。

So my name is Zach Kirkhorn.

所以我的名字是紮克·柯克霍恩。

Just a brief background on myself.

簡單介紹一下我自己的背景。

So I joined Tesla just under 9 years ago, when we were a super small company with a lot of potential ahead of us and I was attracted to the mission and the vision of the company.

所以我在不到 9 年前加入特斯拉，當時我們是一家超級小公司，潛力巨大，我被公司的使命和願景所吸引。

Throughout that time, I've been deep in the operations of every major program of the company, from the Roadster to Model S and X, Model 3, scaling our energy business and more things to come, which we've talked about on the call.

在那段時間裡，我一直深入參與公司每個主要項目的運營，從 Roadster 到 Model S 和 X、Model 3，擴展我們的能源業務以及未來的更多事情，我們已經在稱呼。

I feel we're starting 2019 with a very strong financial foundation.

我覺得我們在 2019 年開始時擁有非常強大的財務基礎。

We have enough cash to continue launching new programs and developing new technologies, and we're able to service upcoming debt obligations with our forecasted cash flows.

我們有足夠的現金繼續推出新項目和開發新技術，我們能夠用我們預測的現金流來償還即將到來的債務。

My focus, alongside the talented and amazingly passionate team at Tesla, is to ensure we continue the terrific momentum on cost management and operational efficiency, which will enable us more -- enable more access to our products around the world, which is key to achieving the mission of the company.

與特斯拉才華橫溢且充滿激情的團隊一起，我的重點是確保我們繼續在成本管理和運營效率方面保持強勁勢頭，這將使我們能夠更多——讓更多人能夠在全球範圍內獲得我們的產品，這是實現目標的關鍵公司的使命。

On a personal note, Deepak, a huge thank you to you for your leadership, mentorship and support and very much looking forward to discussing our progress on future earnings calls.

就個人而言，Deepak 非常感謝您的領導、指導和支持，並非常期待在未來的收益電話會議上討論我們的進展。

Great.

偉大的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

We will speak to you in 3 months.

我們將在 3 個月內與您交談。

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This concludes the program.

程序到此結束。

You may all disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

你們都可以斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。