特斯拉 (TSLA) 2018 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Q2 2018 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast Call.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎收聽特斯拉 2018 年第二季度財務業績和問答網絡直播電話。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference may be recorded.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議可能會被錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

我現在想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係高級總監 Martin Viecha 先生。

Mr. Viecha, you may begin.

Viecha 先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you very much, Sherry, and good afternoon, everyone.

非常感謝雪莉，大家下午好。

Welcome to Tesla's second quarter 2018 Q&A webcast.

歡迎收聽特斯拉 2018 年第二季度問答網絡直播。

I'm joined today by Elon Musk; J.B. Straubel; Deepak Ahuja; Robin Ren, our Head of Sales; Jerome Guillen, our VP of Trucks; and we also have our autopilot team with us here; Andrej Karpathy, Director of AI; Stuart Bowers, our VP of Engineering; and Pete Bannon, our Director of Silicon Engineering.

今天埃隆馬斯克加入了我的行列； J.B.施特勞貝爾；迪帕克·阿胡賈；我們的銷售主管 Robin Ren； Jerome Guillen，我們的卡車副總裁；我們這裡還有我們的自動駕駛團隊；人工智能總監 Andrej Karpathy； Stuart Bowers，我們的工程副總裁；和我們的矽工程總監 Pete Bannon。

Our Q2 results were announced at about 1:00 p.m.

我們的第二季度業績在下午 1:00 左右公佈。

Pacific Time in the update letter we published at the same link as this webcast.

太平洋時間在我們發佈在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上的更新信中。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。

These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。

Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.

在我們進入問答環節之前，埃隆有一些開場白。

Elon?

埃隆?

Hi, thank you for joining.

您好，感謝您的加入。

First of all, I'd like to say, we're incredibly proud of the Tesla team for producing 7,000 Model 3, Model S and Model X vehicles in the last week of June.

首先，我想說，我們為特斯拉團隊在 6 月的最後一周生產了 7,000 輛 Model 3、Model S 和 Model X 車輛感到無比自豪。

Those were amazing efforts.

這些都是驚人的努力。

So honored to work with such great team to fuse that incredible result.

很榮幸能與如此優秀的團隊合作，融合出令人難以置信的成果。

It's like mind-blowing.

這就像令人興奮。

We continued to achieve 5,000 Model 3s per week, 7,000 combined S, X and 3, multiple weeks in July, showing that we're able to do this on a sustained basis.

我們在 7 月的多個星期繼續實現每週 5,000 輛 Model 3，7,000 輛 S、X 和 3 組合，這表明我們能夠持續實現這一目標。

And we expect to, in the absence of a force majeure or some very unexpected events, be able to achieve an average of 5,000 Model 3s or above for Q3, and 2,000 Model 3, Model S, X or above per week for Q3 as well.

我們預計，在沒有不可抗力或一些非常意外的事件的情況下，第三季度能夠實現平均 5,000 輛或以上的 Model 3，第三季度平均每周可以實現 2,000 輛 Model 3、Model S、X 或以上.

So essentially, 7,000 cars a week, plus for -- on average for Q3.

所以基本上，每週 7,000 輛汽車，加上第三季度的平均水平。

So it's an amazing jump from only a year ago when we're producing 2,000 vehicles a week.

因此，與僅一年前我們每週生產 2,000 輛汽車相比，這是一個驚人的飛躍。

It's really kind of a mind-blowing leap forward for a manufacturing company.

對於一家製造公司來說，這確實是一個令人興奮的飛躍。

So yes, it's incredible work by the team to do that.

所以，是的，團隊做到這一點是令人難以置信的工作。

Many, many late nights, weekends, extreme amounts of effort and lots of smart ideas.

很多很多的深夜，週末，大量的努力和很多聰明的想法。

It's amazing.

太奇妙了。

The results you're seeing is that the Model 3 market share has surpassed all competitor premium, mid-sized sedans combined.

您所看到的結果是，Model 3 的市場份額已經超過了所有競爭對手的高端、中型轎車的總和。

So Model 3 market share is now a majority.

所以 Model 3 的市場份額現在佔了大多數。

July was a majority of all premium sedans.

七月是所有高檔轎車的大部分。

That trend is, we think, likely to continue.

我們認為，這種趨勢可能會持續下去。

So it's not -- we do not think it will stop there.

所以它不是——我們認為它不會止步於此。

I have Robin Ren here, who's our worldwide Head of Sales, to talk about some of the interesting elements that we're seeing in terms of cars that people are trading in, the sales and demand trends.

我們的全球銷售主管 Robin Ren 在這裡談談我們在人們交易的汽車、銷售和需求趨勢方面看到的一些有趣元素。

It's looking really, really positive.

它看起來非常非常積極。

We're also getting great feedback from Model 3 from our customers, and we're now delivering the performance dual-motor and all-wheel drive versions.

我們還從客戶那裡獲得了來自 Model 3 的良好反饋，我們現在提供高性能雙電機和全輪驅動版本。

And the Model 3 reviews are outstanding, really couldn't ask for better reviews from some of the toughest critics in the world.

而且 Model 3 的評論非常出色，真的無法要求世界上一些最嚴厲的評論家給出更好的評論。

And it's -- yes, and just the thing that we're recognizing is that the more Model 3s we deliver to the field, it's actually causing viral growth of our sales.

這是 - 是的，我們正在認識到的是，我們向該領域交付的 Model 3 越多，它實際上會導致我們的銷售呈病毒式增長。

So we deliver our Model 3 to somebody, they love it, they tell all their friends, they are actually -- really, our customers are our primary sales force.

所以我們將我們的 Model 3 交付給某人，他們喜歡它，他們告訴他們所有的朋友，他們實際上——真的，我們的客戶是我們的主要銷售力量。

They love their car and take their friends for a drive, and that's the thing that fundamentally drives our sales.

他們熱愛自己的汽車並帶朋友去兜風，而這正是推動我們銷售的根本原因。

But not everyone has Model 3, obviously, so we need to get the cars out there for test drives.

但顯然，並不是每個人都擁有 Model 3，因此我們需要將這些汽車帶到那裡進行試駕。

As it is right now, not even all stores in North America have Model 3 for test drives.

就目前而言，甚至北美的所有商店都沒有用於試駕的 Model 3。

Of course, we prioritize getting cars to customers, but we're soon going to have Model 3s available for test drives in all stores, and both the performance version and the rear-wheel drive version.

當然，我們優先考慮為客戶提供汽車，但我們很快就會在所有商店推出 Model 3 供試駕，包括性能版和後輪驅動版。

So we just want people who will not buy a car until they test drive it, just not unreasonable.

因此，我們只希望人們在試駕之前不會購買汽車，而不是不合理。

Although on Sunday, when I delivered it, testing out like direct delivery, which I think is definitely the future, direct delivery from factory to customers or wherever they are.

雖然在星期天，當我交付它時，像直接交付一樣進行測試，我認為這絕對是未來，從工廠直接交付給客戶或無論他們在哪裡。

The guy here who bought it have never actually even sat in a Model 3. I'm like, wow, okay, Mr. Raul, how do you feel about the car now?

在這裡買它的人實際上從未坐過 Model 3。我想，哇，好吧，勞爾先生，你現在對這輛車感覺如何？

You haven't even driven it.

你甚至沒有開過它。

He's like, "I love it.

他就像，“我喜歡它。

It's amazing." So yes, it seems to be really well-received.

太棒了。”所以是的，它似乎很受歡迎。

Yes, so I'd approximate 7,000 cars a week.

是的，所以我每周大約有 7,000 輛汽車。

We believe we can be sustainably profitable from Q3 onwards.

我們相信我們可以從第三季度開始持續盈利。

We'll try to raise that rate of Model 3 production steadily in the coming quarters and try to get to the 10,000 cars a week number as soon we can.

我們將努力在未來幾個季度穩步提高 Model 3 的生產速度，並努力盡快達到每週 10,000 輛的目標。

What we've found, as we spent a lot of time debugging a wide range manufacturer issues, is that the potential for our existing lines to be able to produce far more cars is much greater than expected that by simplifying production lines, by speeding them up, by, in some cases, having things being done manually instead of automatic, and in other cases having be done automatic instead of manual, we've been able to achieve dramatic improvements to the output of existing lines, which means that our CapEx growing from 5,000 cars a week to 10,000 cars a week is a tiny fraction.

我們發現，當我們花費大量時間調試各種製造商問題時，我們現有生產線能夠生產更多汽車的潛力比通過簡化生產線、加快生產線速度的預期要大得多向上，通過在某些情況下手動完成而不是自動完成，在其他情況下自動完成而不是手動完成，我們已經能夠顯著改善現有生產線的輸出，這意味著我們的資本支出從每週 5,000 輛汽車增加到每週 10,000 輛汽車只是很小的一部分。

CapEx going 5,000 to 10,000 is a tiny fraction to CapEx needing to grow from 0 to 5,000 Model 3s.

資本支出從 5,000 增長到 10,000 與需要從 0 增長到 5,000 輛 Model 3 的資本支出相比只是很小的一部分。

This is, I think, very good news for capital efficiency of the company.

我認為，這對於公司的資本效率來說是一個非常好的消息。

And (inaudible) that's going from future mass market to vehicles that we produce.

並且（聽不清）從未來的大眾市場到我們生產的車輛。

So -- and from an operating standpoint, from Q3 onwards, we're going to emphasize, our goal is to be profitable and cash flow positive for every quarter going forward.

所以——從運營的角度來看，從第三季度開始，我們將強調，我們的目標是在未來的每個季度實現盈利和現金流為正。

Now obviously, if there's a big recession or there's a severe force majeure event that interrupts the supply chain, that's not always possible.

現在顯然，如果出現大衰退或嚴重的不可抗力事件中斷供應鏈，這並不總是可能的。

But we're confident that -- and provided the economy is roughly where it is today, reasonably good and there's not a big force majeure event that we -- I feel comfortable achieving the GAAP income positive and cash flow positive quarter every quarter from here on out.

但我們有信心——如果經濟大致處於今天的水平，相當不錯，而且我們沒有發生重大的不可抗力事件——我對從這裡開始每個季度實現 GAAP 收入為正和現金流為正的季度感到滿意上出來。

It's -- I'll just say, the major occasional cause is we'll pay back a big loan or something where there may be -- just because we paid back a big loan.

這是 - 我只想說，主要的偶然原因是我們將償還一筆大筆貸款或可能存在的其他事情 - 只是因為我們償還了一筆大筆貸款。

But absent that, we'd be cash flow positive.

但如果沒有這一點，我們的現金流就會是正數。

So once again, I thank the team for their incredible work and our customers for their support.

因此，我再次感謝團隊出色的工作和客戶的支持。

Without the great people we have at Tesla and the customers who put their faith in us by buying our product, we would not be here today.

如果沒有我們在特斯拉的優秀員工以及通過購買我們的產品而信任我們的客戶，我們不會有今天的成就。

And yes, I've really never been more excited about the future of Tesla.

是的，我真的從未對特斯拉的未來感到如此興奮。

We have a super exciting set of products to bring out in the future.

我們有一套超級令人興奮的產品可以在未來推出。

And yes, I mean, sorry if I sound a little tired, I've been working like crazy in the body shop lately.

是的，我的意思是，對不起，如果我聽起來有點累，我最近一直在車身修理廠瘋狂地工作。

But it's really going great.

但它真的很棒。

I'm super excited.

我超級興奮。

Some good people.

一些好人。

And a number of the executive team are here.

許多執行團隊都在這裡。

If I could ask the 3 key leaders of the Tesla autopilot team to be here.

如果我可以請特斯拉自動駕駛團隊的 3 位主要負責人到場。

So I'd like to go from here to see if autopilot leaders at Tesla could introduce themselves and say a bit about what you're working on, what you're excited about in the future.

所以我想從這裡開始，看看特斯拉的自動駕駛領導者是否可以自我介紹，並談談你正在做什麼，你對未來感到興奮的事情。

Sorry to put you guys in the spot.

很抱歉讓你們陷入困境。

But I think we're making pretty radical advances in the quarter, software technology and the vision neural net, and then, very importantly, the Tesla self-driving technology that we've been working on for 3 years is finally coming to fruition.

但我認為我們在本季度取得了相當大的進步，軟件技術和視覺神經網絡，然後，非常重要的是，我們研究了 3 年的特斯拉自動駕駛技術終於實現了。

Pete Bannon is going to talk a lot about that.

皮特·班農（Pete Bannon）將對此進行很多討論。

But it's a plug-in replacement for the existing computer, and an order of magnitude improvements in operations per second or frames per second is the way to think about it.

但它是現有計算機的插件替代品，每秒操作數或每秒幀數的數量級改進是考慮它的方式。

And we can go say, they really are key to Tesla full autonomy.

我們可以說，它們確實是特斯拉完全自主的關鍵。

And (inaudible) to be really easy to replace.

並且（聽不清）非常容易更換。

I'll let Pete talk about that.

我會讓皮特談談這件事。

So we're going to start with like Stuart (inaudible)

所以我們要從 Stuart 開始（聽不清）

Okay.

好的。

Hi, I'm Stuart.

嗨，我是斯圖爾特。

You're going to have to talk a lot louder.

你將不得不大聲說話。

Oh, yes, I'll just talk extra loud.

哦，是的，我只會大聲說話。

So I'm Stuart.

所以我是斯圖爾特。

Yes, I joined team relatively recently.

是的，我最近才加入團隊。

Incredibly excited kind of to see the foundation the team has built up until this point and building on top of that right now.

看到團隊在此之前建立的基礎並在此基礎上建立，令人難以置信的興奮。

So right now, a lot of the focus is on Autopilot V9, which is our sort of on-ramp to off-ramp solution that's going to automatically attempt to change lanes, understand what lane the car is in, understand the route the user wants to travel and take that route for the user and ultimately hand back control to that user in just kind of safe and controlled.

所以現在，很多焦點都集中在 Autopilot V9，這是我們的一種從入口到出口的解決方案，它會自動嘗試改變車道，了解汽車在哪條車道上，了解用戶想要的路線為用戶旅行並採取那條路線，並最終以安全和可控的方式將控制權交還給該用戶。

It's a great navigation.

這是一個很棒的導航。

So you're like, you have to get (inaudible) you say like -- you just -- by the way, a little tip for -- if you're driving Model S or X or 3, is if you just tap and hold -- tap the navigate button and just drag down, it will automatically navigate you to your home or, depending upon where you are.

所以你就像，你必須讓（聽不清）你說 - 你只是 - 順便說一下，一個小提示 - 如果你駕駛 Model S 或 X 或 3，如果你只是點擊並按住 - 點擊導航按鈕並向下拖動，它會自動將您導航到您的家，或者取決於您所在的位置。

That's a pretty cool feature.

這是一個非常酷的功能。

Yes.

是的。

So yes, a lot of focus right now, we're also kind of digging out on some new safety features.

所以是的，現在有很多重點，我們也在挖掘一些新的安全功能。

I think, probably the thing that's just most exciting for me coming into the team is just seeing the foundations being built out over the last 2 years.

我認為，對我來說，加入團隊最令人興奮的事情可能就是看到過去 2 年打下的基礎。

I think, Andrej will talk a lot about some of the perception and vision work we've done there, including data engine.

我認為，Andrej 會談論很多關於我們在那裡所做的一些感知和視覺工作，包括數據引擎。

That has sort of allowed us to build on top of that very, very quickly.

這讓我們能夠非常非常快速地在此基礎上進行構建。

And I think we're all starting to see a new set of safety features that really only makes sense.

而且我認為我們都開始看到一組真正有意義的新安全功能。

In this world, we have extremely high understanding of tapping around the vehicle.

在這個世界上，我們對車輛周圍的敲擊有著極高的理解。

So I think, when I sort of look at these coming to work, it's like, one, starting to introduce real aspects of kind of not just making the kind of reducing the drudgery or kind of the risk of commuting, but also really making the element fun.

所以我認為，當我看到這些開始工作時，就像，一個，開始引入真正的方面，不僅可以減少苦差事或通勤風險，還可以真正使元素樂趣。

And the second is like dramatically improving safety in a way that you really can only do once you have this like very nuanced understanding of the world around you through perception.

第二個就像以某種方式顯著提高安全性，只有當你通過感知對周圍的世界有了非常細微的理解時，你才能真正做到這一點。

Hello, everyone.

大家好。

My name is Andrej Karpathy, and I'm the Director of AI here at Tesla.

我叫 Andrej Karpathy，是特斯拉的人工智能總監。

In particular, I lead the vision team, which is responsible for turning the video stream that we receive from all the cameras in the vehicle into an understanding of what is around us and around the vehicle.

特別是，我領導視覺團隊，該團隊負責將我們從車輛中所有攝像頭接收到的視頻流轉化為對我們周圍和車輛周圍事物的理解。

I work with neural networks for about 10 years, earned my -- mostly as PhD in Stanford, and as a research scientist in OpenAI, And what I'm really excited about is really building up this infrastructure for computer vision that underlies all the neural network training, trying to get those networks to work extremely well and make that really good foundation on top of which we build out all the features of the autopilot, like the features associated with the V9 where really that's going to come up and that Stuart has mentioned.

我在神經網絡方面工作了大約 10 年，獲得了我的 - 主要是在斯坦福大學獲得博士學位，以及作為 OpenAI 的研究科學家，我真正興奮的是真正為計算機視覺建立了這個基礎設施，它是所有神經網絡的基礎網絡訓練，試圖讓這些網絡運行得非常好，並打下一個非常好的基礎，在此基礎上我們構建了自動駕駛儀的所有功能，比如與 V9 相關的功能，這真的會出現，斯圖爾特有提及。

This is Pete Bannon.

這是皮特班農。

My team...

我的團隊...

(inaudible) talk about the -- yes.

（聽不清）談論--是的。

My team is leading currently the hardware 3 development.

我的團隊目前正在領導硬件 3 的開發。

The chips are up and working, and we have drop-in replacements for S, X and 3. All have been driven in the field.

芯片已經啟動並正常工作，我們為 S、X 和 3 提供了替代品。所有這些都是在現場驅動的。

They support the current networks running today in the car at full frame rates, with a lot of idle cycles to spare.

它們支持目前在汽車中以全幀速率運行的當前網絡，並有大量空閒週期可供使用。

So I think we're all really excited about what Andrej and his team will be able to do with this hardware in the future.

因此，我認為我們都對 Andrej 和他的團隊將來能夠用這種硬件做些什麼感到非常興奮。

I think, like one little incidental story was I gave a talk to his team on hardware 3 last month, explaining how it worked and what it was capable of.

我想，就像一個偶然的小故事一樣，我上個月就硬件 3 與他的團隊進行了一次談話，解釋了它是如何工作的以及它的能力。

And then, afterwards, one of the researchers came up to me, he was really excited and he said, "this is so exciting."

然後，之後，一位研究人員走到我面前，他真的很興奮，他說，“這太令人興奮了。”

So as a hardware designed, having excited software developers is the best.

所以作為一個硬件設計，有興奮的軟件開發人員是最好的。

It's a really fun place to work because I do get to work with my 2 primary customers, Stuart and Andrej, and making them happy is pretty fun.

這是一個非常有趣的工作場所，因為我確實可以與我的 2 位主要客戶 Stuart 和 Andrej 一起工作，讓他們開心非常有趣。

Actually, Pete, maybe just to (inaudible) background, but not everyone does, so if you can just like -- Pete's a super normal guy, but if you could just, yes, talk about the stuff you've done before.

實際上，Pete，也許只是（聽不清）背景，但不是每個人都這樣做，所以如果你可以喜歡——Pete 是一個超級正常的人，但如果你可以，是的，談談你以前做過的事情。

Let's see, I started working designing computers in Digital Equipment Corporation in 1984, back when they were refrigerator-sized, and have been working on smaller and smaller designs ever since.

讓我們看看，我於 1984 年開始在 Digital Equipment Corporation 設計計算機，那時它們還只有冰箱大小，從那時起我就一直致力於越來越小的設計。

I was an Intel fellow, working on a team for a little while, then I was VP of Architecture and Verification at PA Semi, which was acquired by Apple.

我是一名英特爾研究員，在一個團隊工作了一段時間，然後我在被蘋果收購的 PA Semi 擔任架構和驗證副總裁。

I led the design of the first ARM 32-bit processor that went into the iPhone 5. I built the team that designed the first ARM 64-bit processor in the world, which went into the iPhone 5S.

我領導了第一款用於 iPhone 5 的 ARM 32 位處理器的設計。我組建的團隊設計了世界上第一款用於 iPhone 5S 的 ARM 64 位處理器。

And then, I worked on performance modeling and performance improvements at Apple for 8 years.

然後，我在 Apple 從事了 8 年的性能建模和性能改進工作。

And then, 2 years, I came to Tesla, and designed the neural network accelerator that's part of hardware 3 and helped architect the rest of the hardware 3 solution that will be in the car next year.

然後，兩年後，我來到特斯拉，設計了作為硬件 3 一部分的神經網絡加速器，並幫助構建了明年將在汽車中使用的硬件 3 解決方案的其餘部分。

Yes, maybe worth articulating some of the details, what the design principles that -- explain why, at Tesla, AI chip or AI computer essentially for the car is able to achieve order of magnitude better processing than anything else that exists.

是的，也許值得闡明一些細節，解釋為什麼在特斯拉，人工智能芯片或人工智能計算機基本上能夠實現比現有任何東西更好的處理數量級的設計原則。

Sure.

當然。

So like 2 years ago, when I joined Tesla, we did a survey of all of the solutions that were out there for running neural networks, including GPUs.

所以就像 2 年前，當我加入特斯拉時，我們對所有運行神經網絡的解決方案進行了調查，包括 GPU。

We went and talked to other people like at ARM that were building embedded solutions for running neural networks, and pretty much everywhere we looked, it's somebody had a hammer, whether it was a CPU or a GPU or whatever, they were adding something to accelerate neural networks, but nobody was doing a bottoms up design from scratch, which is what we elected to do.

我們去和 ARM 等其他正在構建用於運行神經網絡的嵌入式解決方案的人交談，幾乎在我們所看到的任何地方，都有人拿著錘子，無論是 CPU 還是 GPU 或其他什麼，他們都在添加一些東西來加速神經網絡，但沒有人從頭開始進行自下而上的設計，這是我們選擇做的。

We had the benefit of having the insight into seeing what Tesla's neural networks looked like back then, and having projections to what they would look like into the future and we're able to leverage all of that knowledge and are willing to totally commit to that style of computing to previous design that's dramatically more efficient and has dramatically more performance than what you can buy today.

我們受益於洞察特斯拉當時的神經網絡是什麼樣子，並對它們未來的樣子進行了預測，我們能夠利用所有這些知識並願意完全致力於這一點與以前的設計相比，這種計算風格顯著提高了效率，並且比您現在可以購買的產品具有顯著更高的性能。

Well, thanks.

非常感謝。

Yes, I mean, essentially, the key is to be able to run the neural net at a fundamental -- at a bare metal level so that you're -- in the circuits, especially when you're the calculations in the circuits itself and not in some sort of emulation mode, which is how a GPU or CPU would operate.

是的，我的意思是，本質上，關鍵是能夠在基礎上運行神經網絡——在裸機級別，這樣你就可以——在電路中，尤其是當你在電路本身中進行計算時而不是在某種仿真模式下，這是 GPU 或 CPU 的運行方式。

So you want to do basically a mass amount of localized major (inaudible) with the memory right there.

所以你基本上想用記憶做大量的本地化專業（聽不清）。

So it's a huge number of very simple complications with the memory needed to straight adjust those complications right next to the circuits that are doing the matrix calculations.

因此，在進行矩陣計算的電路旁邊直接調整這些複雜性所需的內存是大量非常簡單的複雜性。

And the net effect is an order of magnitude improvement in the frames per second.

淨效果是每秒幀數的數量級提高。

Our current hardware, which I'm a big fan of NVIDIA, they're great stuff, but using a GPU, primarily, it's an emulation mode.

我們目前的硬件，我是 NVIDIA 的忠實粉絲，它們是很棒的東西，但使用 GPU，主要是一種仿真模式。

So -- and you also get choked on the bus.

所以 - 你也會在公共汽車上窒息。

So the transfer between the GPU and the CPU ends up being a strain to the system.

因此，GPU 和 CPU 之間的傳輸最終會對系統造成壓力。

So the net effect is we're able to, with the Tesla computer, we've been in like semi-stealth mode basically for the last 2 to 3 years on this, but I think it's probably time to let the cat out of the bag because that -- the cat's coming out of the bag anyway.

所以最終的結果是我們能夠，使用特斯拉計算機，在過去的 2 到 3 年裡，我們基本上一直處於半隱身模式，但我認為可能是時候讓貓擺脫困境了袋子，因為那——不管怎樣，貓還是從袋子裡出來的。

So it's an incredible job by Pete, as seen.

所以這是皮特的一項令人難以置信的工作，正如所見。

It's great.

這很棒。

One of the most advanced computer for -- designed specifically for autonomous operation.

最先進的計算機之一——專為自主操作而設計。

And as a rough sort of figure, whereas the current NVIDIA-based hardware can do 200 frames a second, this is able to do over 2,000 frames a second, and with full redundancy and fail over.

作為一個粗略的數字，雖然當前基於 NVIDIA 的硬件每秒可以處理 200 幀，但它每秒可以處理超過 2,000 幀，並且具有完全冗餘和故障轉移。

So it's an amazing design and we're looking to increase the size of our chip team and our investment in that as quickly as possible.

所以這是一個了不起的設計，我們正在尋求盡快增加我們芯片團隊的規模和我們在這方面的投資。

I think we're at some of the best days the world, but I think we want to hold on it even more.

我認為我們正處於世界上最好的日子，但我認為我們更想堅持下去。

And it's going to cost the same as our current hardware, and we anticipate that this -- they would actually just replace those replacements, which is why we made it easy to switch out the computer.

它的成本將與我們當前的硬件相同，我們預計這 - 它們實際上只是替換那些替代品，這就是為什麼我們可以輕鬆切換計算機。

And that's all that needs to be done.

這就是所有需要做的。

If we take out one computer and plug in the next, that's it.

如果我們取出一台計算機並插入下一台計算機，就是這樣。

All the connectors are compatible, and an order of magnitude more processing.

所有的連接器都是兼容的，而且處理量要多一個數量級。

And you can run all cameras at full frame rate, full resolution with a complex neural net.

您可以使用複雜的神經網絡以全幀速率、全分辨率運行所有相機。

So it's super kickass.

所以它是超級kickass。

Thank you for doing that.

謝謝你這樣做。

You're welcome.

別客氣。

Thanks for making that and thanks for making the software.

感謝您製作該軟件並感謝您製作該軟件。

And I'd like -- basically, I wanted to introduce 3 of the key people at Tesla that are doing this.

我想 - 基本上，我想介紹 3 位特斯拉的關鍵人物，他們正在做這件事。

I have huge respect and admiration for you guys.

我對你們非常尊重和欽佩。

And it's because of what you and your team is doing that's how we're successful in this arena.

正是因為你和你的團隊正在做的事情，這就是我們在這個領域取得成功的方式。

Thank you, Elon.

謝謝你，埃隆。

Sherry.

雪莉酒。

Let's go to the first question.

讓我們進入第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦。

I have one question and one follow-up, please.

我有一個問題和一個跟進，請。

First, just on gross margins, it looks like S and X gross margins were up maybe 500 basis points sequentially.

首先，就毛利率而言，S 和 X 的毛利率似乎連續上升了 500 個基點。

And I'm wondering, maybe you can articulate what drove that?

我想知道，也許你能清楚地說明是什麼推動了這一點？

And then, more importantly, it looks like you're calling for Model 3 gross margins to go from about maybe 3% this quarter to 15% next quarter.

然後，更重要的是，看起來你要求 Model 3 的毛利率從本季度的 3% 左右上升到下季度的 15%。

That's about a $6,000 cost out per car.

每輛汽車的成本約為 6,000 美元。

And I'm wondering if you can maybe help us understand what sort of the forces that drive that kind of improvement in a relatively short time frame?

我想知道你是否可以幫助我們了解在相對較短的時間內推動這種改進的力量是什麼？

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

First of all, I'd like to apologize for being impolite on the prior call.

首先，我想為之前的電話不禮貌而道歉。

Honestly, I don't think this really excuse for bad manners, I was kind of violating my own rule in that regard.

老實說，我不認為這是不禮貌的真正藉口，在這方面我有點違反了我自己的規則。

So I have some excuse -- there are reasons for it, I've not gotten enough sleep and have been working sort of 110-hour, 120-hour weeks.

所以我有一些藉口——這是有原因的，我沒有得到足夠的睡眠並且每週工作 110 小時、120 小時。

But nonetheless, I just want to excuse.

但無論如何，我只想原諒。

My apologies for not being polite on the prior call.

我很抱歉在之前的電話中沒有禮貌。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And let's see, with respect to gross margin, I'll touch on that and then hand the rest to Deepak.

讓我們看看，關於毛利率，我會談到這一點，然後把剩下的交給迪帕克。

But certainly, when spooling up the production line, there are tremendous amount of inefficiencies.

但是，可以肯定的是，在整理生產線時，會出現大量的低效率問題。

There's a lot of hurry up and wait where some parts of the production line move well and one part doesn't.

在生產線的某些部分運行良好而部分不運行的情況下，有很多人要抓緊時間等待。

And we have associates waiting around with nothing to do.

我們有同事無所事事地等著。

There are parts that we thought were right but then it turns out we've got -- they weren't right and then we send it back to the supplier.

有些部分我們認為是正確的，但事實證明我們得到了——它們不正確，然後我們將其發回給供應商。

It's just like the whole sort of giant machine kind of -- you just need to have to lurch into a high pace.

這就像整個那種巨型機器——你只需要快速進入。

And there's a lot of lurching, which is very inefficient.

而且有很多顛簸，這是非常低效的。

So you end up having super high labor cost per car.

所以你最終每輛車的人工成本都很高。

And it just needs -- it takes time to sort of spool up this giant machine.

它只需要 - 將這台巨型機器捲起來需要時間。

It's a -- basically, a production system is like a giant cybernetic collector.

它是一個——基本上，一個生產系統就像一個巨大的控制論收集器。

And then, it moves as fast as its slowest part.

然後，它的移動速度與其最慢的部分一樣快。

So as we address those slow parts and as you improve efficiency, then gap -- gross margin, and so the profitability of the car just improves dramatically.

因此，當我們解決那些緩慢的部分並提高效率時，就會出現差距——毛利率，因此汽車的盈利能力就會顯著提高。

That's sort of at a high level.

這有點高水平。

Do you want to add to that?

你想補充嗎？

No, you described it extremely well.

不，你描述得非常好。

So just to sort of summarize, this was a major milestone for us in Q2 that the gross margin in Model 3 doing slightly positive.

所以總結一下，這對我們來說是第二季度的一個重要里程碑，Model 3 的毛利率略有上升。

And we feel really good about the path ahead.

我們對未來的道路感覺非常好。

And as Elon said, it's driven predominantly by manufacturing cost efficiencies.

正如埃隆所說，它主要是由製造成本效率驅動的。

It's the labor hours that we use to produce each car becomes less, the initial ramp up costs that we have that are one-time as those inefficiencies disappear.

這是因為我們用於生產每輛汽車的勞動時間變少了，隨著這些低效率的消失，我們擁有的初始增加成本是一次性的。

Our fixed cost that are there, that gets leveraged to a higher volume.

我們的固定成本在那裡，可以利用到更高的數量。

So all of that.

所以這一切。

Actually, a thing that can also happen is that if it turns out that, say, a production part was either designed wrong or both wrong or something wrong with it, then our (inaudible) on emergency basis, we have to go with low-volume tooling, which can be produced quickly.

實際上，也可能發生的事情是，如果事實證明，生產部件要么設計錯誤，要么設計錯誤，要么有問題，那麼我們（聽不清）在緊急情況下，我們必須採用低-體積工具，可以快速生產。

But a power producer of a low-volume tooling can easily be 10x more than a product produced of production tooling.

但是，小批量工具的電力生產商很容易比生產工俱生產的產品高出 10 倍。

And so just wanted -- you can have -- and sometimes, it's (inaudible) it's really not.

所以只是想要 - 你可以擁有 - 有時，它（聽不清）它真的不是。

If you got a machine and something happened out of a block, and it's either that or make a car, but the cost of using low volume (inaudible) of low-volume tooling can be really nutty.

如果你有一台機器，並且發生了一些事情，要么就是製造汽車，要么是製造汽車，但是使用小批量（聽不清）的小批量工具的成本可能真的很瘋狂。

And that journey just continues.

而這段旅程還在繼續。

As we stabilize and grow production from these levels, we achieve even more efficiencies.

隨著我們從這些水平穩定和增加產量，我們實現了更高的效率。

And Q3 also benefits with somewhat improved mix as we're going to sell more all-wheel drive and performance cars.

由於我們將銷售更多全輪驅動和高性能汽車，第三季度的組合也有所改善。

And in the long run, as we continue to achieve those efficiencies on cost, our gross margins will continue to increase.

從長遠來看，隨著我們繼續實現這些成本效率，我們的毛利率將繼續增加。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, I don't know if this trend will continue.

我的意思是，我不知道這種趨勢是否會持續下去。

We're trying to give you essentially all the information that at least we know, but we're seeing roughly half of our customers choose the dual-motor all-wheel drive option, which is actually quite a good positive surprise.

我們試圖向您提供至少我們所知道的所有信息，但我們看到大約一半的客戶選擇雙電機全輪驅動選項，這實際上是一個很好的驚喜。

Yes, it's been heartening to see that mix in terms of what customers want.

是的，從客戶想要的角度來看，這種組合令人振奮。

And Robin can probably add more to that.

羅賓可能會增加更多。

Yes.

是的。

So starting from end of June, when we opened the configurator and invited the existing reservation orders, we saw tremendous excitement and response from our customers.

因此，從 6 月底開始，當我們打開配置器並邀請現有的預訂訂單時，我們看到了客戶的極大興奮和反應。

As Deepak just mentioned, we actually see more orders for the all-wheel drive dual-motor car and performance cars combined than the rear-wheel drive cars.

正如迪帕克剛剛提到的，我們實際上看到全輪驅動雙電機車和高性能車的訂單比後輪驅動車的訂單要多。

Yes.

是的。

It's -- we don't want to say this should be assumed to be a continued thing.

這是 - 我們不想說這應該被認為是一個持續的事情。

It's just the thing we are seeing now.

這正是我們現在所看到的。

Correct.

正確的。

And another thing I want to point out is that we are absolutely -- since we opened the configurator to the general public in early July, we are seeing an increased demand coming from people who do not currently hold a reservation.

我想指出的另一件事是，我們絕對 - 自從我們在 7 月初向公眾開放配置器以來，我們看到目前沒有預訂的人的需求增加了。

I think that's something that we found super exciting because these are the people who actually had no idea about Model 3 and they heard about Model 3 as available to order.

我認為這是我們覺得非常令人興奮的事情，因為這些人實際上對 Model 3 一無所知，而且他們聽說 Model 3 可以訂購。

Many of them requested test drives.

他們中的許多人要求試駕。

And since early July, we have over 60,000 test drive requests in the U.S. alone.

自 7 月初以來，僅在美國就有超過 60,000 個試駕請求。

And these people come into our stores, do the test drive, and they become super excited and they decide to order a car.

這些人來到我們的商店，試駕，他們變得非常興奮，他們決定訂購一輛車。

So we believe that the strong demand coming from, especially the non-reservation orders, is going to dramatically increase as we increase our test drive population.

因此，我們相信，隨著我們增加試駕人數，來自非預訂訂單的強勁需求將急劇增加。

To give you an example, 3 weeks ago, we had only 8 stores having test drive cars, to Elon's point earlier.

舉個例子，3 週前，我們只有 8 家商店有試駕汽車，這與 Elon 早些時候的觀點一樣。

Now we have over 90 stores having test drive cars.

現在我們有超過 90 家商店試駕汽車。

It's worth mentioning, just an interesting little bits of information that the revenues was telling me -- and Robin, I would just congratulate you on doing a great job running worldwide sales (inaudible) and the also work on China, which is like really some next-level stuff.

值得一提的是，只是收入告訴我的一些有趣的小信息——還有羅賓，我只是祝賀你在全球銷售方面做得很好（聽不清），而且還在中國工作，這就像真的下一級的東西。

Our revenues raised in China, and has been -- along with Tom and (inaudible) as well, the team China has been instrumental in establishing the Tesla China factory and making sure that gets on right and have a great relationship with the government.

我們在中國的收入增加了，而且一直 - 與湯姆和（聽不清）一起，中國團隊在建立特斯拉中國工廠並確保順利進行並與政府建立良好關係方面發揮了重要作用。

So nice work in that regard.

在這方面做得很好。

But it's really -- I think -- and so the things we want to expect, like what are the top 5 trade-in cars for Model 3?

但這真的是——我認為——所以我們想要期待的事情，比如 Model 3 的前 5 名以舊換新汽車是什麼？

Yes, this is very interesting.

是的，這很有趣。

So we looked at what people who are buying Model 3 cars in the United States, what cars they are trading in.

所以我們研究了在美國購買 Model 3 汽車的人，他們在交易什麼汽車。

What we found is throughout this year, from January to July, the top 5 non-Tesla cars people are trading in to get into a Model 3, they are Toyota Prius, BMW 3 Series, Honda Accord, Honda Civic and Nissan Leaf.

我們發現，從今年 1 月到 7 月，人們購買 Model 3 的前 5 名非特斯拉汽車是豐田普銳斯、寶馬 3 系、本田雅閣、本田思域和日產聆風。

Really surprising.

真是令人驚訝。

Yes, they are surprising because they are not the traditional premium sedans.

是的，它們令人驚訝，因為它們不是傳統的高級轎車。

They are actually -- many of them are mainstream midsized sedans.

它們實際上是——其中許多是主流的中型轎車。

Right.

正確的。

And obviously, at this point, not yet selling at $35,000 a car.

顯然，目前還沒有以每輛車 35,000 美元的價格出售。

So it is promising for the future.

因此，它對未來充滿希望。

Our next question comes from Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

Maybe we could tackle some of the commentary about the Gigafactory coming in, in China.

也許我們可以處理一些關於 Gigafactory 進入中國的評論。

When you first announced the Gigafactory 1, I think you said that was going to be about a $5 billion investment.

當你第一次宣布 Gigafactory 1 時，我想你說過這將是大約 50 億美元的投資。

And you mentioned some volume numbers associated with what you think is in China.

你提到了一些與你認為在中國相關的數量。

So we do some extrapolation, looks like maybe 15 gigawatts of -- gigawatt hours of initial capacity.

所以我們做了一些推斷，看起來可能是 15 吉瓦 - 吉瓦時的初始容量。

I'm wondering if you could also do a linear extrapolation on the cost you think you need for that factory.

我想知道您是否還可以對您認為該工廠所需的成本進行線性外推。

Sure.

當然。

And I would also like to apologize for being impolite on the last call with you.

我還要為上次與您通話時的不禮貌表示歉意。

That was not right.

那是不對的。

I hope you accept my apologies.

我希望你接受我的道歉。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So with respect to Gigafactory, with CapEx, I think, we booked a tremendous amount with Gigafactory 1. And we're confident that we can do the Gigafactory in China for a lot less.

因此，關於 Gigafactory，我認為，通過資本支出，我們在 Gigafactory 1 上預訂了巨額資金。而且我們有信心，我們可以以更少的成本在中國建造 Gigafactory。

I think it's probably closer to -- this is just a guess, but probably closer to $2 billion.

我認為它可能更接近 - 這只是一個猜測，但可能接近 20 億美元。

And unless we be at a higher -- and that would be sort of the 250,000 vehicle per year rate.

除非我們處於更高的水平 - 這將是每年 250,000 輛汽車的速度。

And so I think we could be a lot more efficient with CapEx.

所以我認為我們可以通過資本支出提高效率。

And that would include at least battery module and pack production, body shop, paint shop and general assembly.

這將至少包括電池模塊和電池組的生產、車身車間、油漆車間和總裝。

(inaudible) but that's a lot that (inaudible) for that.

（聽不清）但那是很多（聽不清）。

And sub production is starting this year, still figure out with respect to the Shanghai factory.

而今年開始分生產，關於上海工廠還在摸索中。

So J.B. would you like to add to that?

那麼 J.B. 你想補充一下嗎？

Yes, I agree with all that.

是的，我同意這一切。

We found surprising number of ways to improve efficiency and speed and density as well at Gigafactory 1. And all those lessons will absolutely be shared with Gigafactory 3. The teams are already, of course, beginning to collaborate and start to figure out ways to do this more efficiently and with less CapEx than last time.

我們在 Gigafactory 1 也發現了數量驚人的提高效率、速度和密度的方法。所有這些經驗都將與 Gigafactory 3 分享。當然，團隊已經開始合作並開始想辦法做這比上次更有效，資本支出更少。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, I think we -- like less than half is like would be a good estimate.

是的，我認為我們 - 少於一半是一個很好的估計。

And maybe a lot less than half, but not more than half would be a fair estimate for CapEx to that 250,000 level.

也許遠少於一半，但不超過一半將是對 250,000 水平的資本支出的合理估計。

So just a tremendous amount of manufacturing, it's like (inaudible) a lot of neurons (inaudible) like next level.

所以只是大量的製造，就像（聽不清）很多神經元（聽不清）就像下一個級別。

But on the plus side, we really know a lot about volume manufacturing at this point.

但從好的方面來說，我們現在對批量生產確實了解很多。

I mean, there are so many specific examples.

我的意思是，有很多具體的例子。

But even in just recent weeks and months, we found some certain areas of production that have been very capital-intensive that we've been able to speed up with almost no additional CapEx by maybe 20%, even 25% or 30% just by...

但即使在最近幾周和幾個月內，我們也發現某些資本密集型的生產領域我們能夠在幾乎沒有額外資本支出的情況下加快 20% 甚至 25% 或 30% 的速度。 ...

Yes, including the cell production.

是的，包括細胞生產。

Yes, just by challenging some of the initial assumptions, the specifications, tweaking the control and software.

是的，只需挑戰一些最初的假設、規範、調整控制和軟件。

Yes, what really matters, what actually doesn't matter, things you think matter.

是的，真正重要的事情，實際上不重要的事情，你認為重要的事情。

And some of it actually ends up not being -- not matter at all.

其中一些實際上最終不是——根本不重要。

And that's with basically 0 CapEx.

這基本上是 0 資本支出。

So as you start to add very tactical strategic CapEx to the existing lines, that's how we can get to something close to double or beyond with a really, really small increment.

因此，當您開始在現有生產線中添加非常戰術性的戰略資本支出時，這就是我們可以通過非常非常小的增量實現接近兩倍或更高的目標。

Yes.

是的。

One of the key to the success on the Model 3 production was the (inaudible) which is led by Jerome.

Model 3 生產成功的關鍵之一是由 Jerome 領導的（聽不清）。

Jerome also was key and (inaudible) so Zone 1, 2 order lines, which was critical because (inaudible) failure and especially in Zone 1 -- Zone 2 of (inaudible) module production (inaudible) that was (inaudible) is amazing.

杰羅姆也是關鍵和（聽不清）所以 1 區、2 區訂單行，這是至關重要的，因為（聽不清）故障，尤其是在 1 區——（聽不清）模塊生產（聽不清）的第 2 區（聽不清）是驚人的。

I feel like (inaudible) our tent.

我覺得（聽不清）我們的帳篷。

But by the way, our tent is amazing.

但順便說一句，我們的帳篷很棒。

And this is not like (inaudible) like some sort of you buy at REI or something like that, you go camping.

這不像（聽不清）像你在 REI 購買的某種東西或類似的東西，你去露營。

This is a tent that is actually commonly used as a permanent structure.

這是一種帳篷，實際上通常用作永久性結構。

It's a giant thing that is very commonly used as a permanent structure.

這是一個巨大的東西，非常常用作永久性結構。

And the -- and we just had to come up with a creative solution because GA 3 was not going to be able to make the rate.

而且——我們只需要想出一個創造性的解決方案，因為 GA 3 無法達到這個目標。

And so we have to come up with some ideas and perhaps provide (inaudible) a little transparent.

因此，我們必須想出一些想法，並可能提供（聽不清）一點透明度。

It's interesting, if you want to...

這很有趣，如果你想...

Yes.

是的。

We -- it was the [Zen] project, actually.

我們——實際上是 [Zen] 項目。

So not only was it producing good results, but it was a lot of people contributed from different (inaudible) groups and had a lot of fun in the process.

因此，它不僅產生了良好的結果，而且很多人都來自不同（聽不清）的群體，並且在這個過程中獲得了很多樂趣。

We set out...

我們出發了...

(inaudible) boulevard.

（聽不清）林蔭大道。

It's like -- you really -- there's like -- so it's like those are really fast flowing (inaudible)

就像 - 你真的 - 就像 - 所以就像那些真的快速流動（聽不清）

We just wanted to create an assembly line that would be very easy and very straightforward.

我們只是想創建一條非常簡單直接的裝配線。

So it's a straight line.

所以這是一條直線。

Very simple.

很簡單。

Car enters at one point and it's finished at the other end.

汽車在某一點進入，在另一端結束。

Very simple access on all sides, very simple tooling that we reused for most of -- actually, nearly all of it is systems and tools that we discarded from previous S and X all for Model 3.

各個方面都非常簡單，我們在大多數情況下都重複使用了非常簡單的工具——實際上，幾乎所有這些都是我們從之前的 S 和 X 中丟棄的系統和工具，全部用於 Model 3。

Especially Model 3. Like it was probably like we got 2 weeks to solve this problem, which is like quite the impossible.

尤其是 Model 3。好像我們有 2 週的時間來解決這個問題，這幾乎是不可能的。

So we actually didn't have time to order new equipment because it would have taken too long to arrive.

所以我們實際上沒有時間訂購新設備，因為它需要很長時間才能到達。

So we took the conveyors that we discarded from the GA 3 line, which didn't work.

因此，我們採用了從 GA 3 生產線丟棄的輸送機，但它不起作用。

Or it was way too complex to actually move our products.

或者實際移動我們的產品太複雜了。

And we simplified, repurposed them, make them sturdy for what was needed and...

我們對它們進行了簡化、重新利用，使它們能夠滿足需要，並且......

Well, Like a really cool idea was putting them on the 1% grade.

好吧，就像一個非常酷的想法是將它們放在 1% 的等級上。

So it's like, technically, the conveyors for parts delivery to GA 3 were not rated to be able to move something as heavy as a car.

因此，從技術上講，用於將零件運送到 GA 3 的傳送帶的額定值無法移動像汽車一樣重的東西。

So we made it downhill and on a 1% downward grade, the car runs at top, so then you can actually overcome the...

所以我們讓它下坡，在 1% 的下坡路上，汽車在頂部運行，所以你實際上可以克服……

Gravity helps.

重力有幫助。

Yes, gravity.

是的，重力。

So if you basically -- with Newton on your side, you can accomplish a lot.

所以如果你基本上——有牛頓在你身邊，你可以完成很多事情。

Yes, it's pushing the car.

是的，它正在推動汽車。

Exactly.

確切地。

No.

不。

And something that I'm particularly happy about is that we installed the quality team at the end of the line, and we wanted to have at least as high standards on this new likeness and the other one.

我特別高興的一點是，我們在生產線末端安裝了質量團隊，我們希望至少對這個新的相似之處和另一個有同樣高的標準。

And because it is so simple and straightforward, they can run very quickly to any point in the line if there's any potential concern and address it very quickly.

而且由於它非常簡單明了，如果有任何潛在問題，他們可以非常快速地運行到生產線中的任何點并快速解決。

There is no maze to move around or identify where something happened.

沒有迷宮可以四處走動或識別發生了什麼事情。

And the quality of the cars that come out of this structure is at least as good as -- and we make all the performance cars on this particular line and they seem to be doing quite well.

從這種結構中生產出來的汽車的質量至少和我們一樣好——我們在這條特定的生產線上製造了所有性能車，而且它們似乎做得很好。

So this is a very pleasant surprise.

所以這是一個非常愉快的驚喜。

And the associates seems to be very happy and engaged in that particular area.

同事們似乎很高興並參與了那個特定的領域。

So this may be a model of how we may want to start general assembly for future vehicles, at least start.

所以這可能是我們可能希望如何開始未來車輛總裝的模型，至少開始。

And we can always add further automation and complexity.

我們總是可以增加進一步的自動化和復雜性。

And so (inaudible) is that this actually has fully considered fewer labor hours per car than like the GA 3 system.

因此（聽不清），與 GA 3 系統相比，這實際上充分考慮了每輛車的工時更少。

And just to elaborate on what I was saying, when we have paused delivery to GA 4, the truck looked like they just backstopped to the side of the line.

只是為了詳細說明我的意思，當我們暫停向 GA 4 交付時，卡車看起來就像他們剛剛停在生產線的一側。

It was like a door in the tent.

它就像帳篷裡的一扇門。

And then that's used to unload parts from suppliers directly to where they're needed on the line.

然後用於將零件從供應商直接卸載到生產線上需要的地方。

So there's no intermediate (inaudible) whereas for GA 3, they unload it, they put it in a warehouse, then they're repackaged for the warehouse into these turrets which just actually -- so we actually have 220 people, something like that across all shifts, whose only job it was, was to repackage parts from the boxes from suppliers to the boxes that -- to these turrets that go into lifters that go up into GA 3. And especially all they do is move things from one box to another box, and we don't need that at all on GA 4.

所以沒有中間人（聽不清），而對於 GA 3，他們將其卸下，將其放入倉庫，然後將倉庫重新包裝到這些砲塔中，實際上——所以我們實際上有 220 人，類似這樣所有輪班，唯一的工作就是將零件從供應商的箱子重新包裝到箱子 - 再到進入 GA 3 的升降機的這些砲塔。尤其是他們所做的就是將東西從一個箱子搬到另一個盒子，我們在 GA 4 上根本不需要它。

All gone.

全沒了。

All gone, yes.

都過去了，是的。

And the stress of sort of 24/7 robotics, technicians that are constantly trying to make the machines have uptime, that's very expensive.

以及 24/7 機器人技術的壓力，不斷努力使機器正常運行的技術人員，這是非常昂貴的。

And so when we think about not having some to maintain all these robotic systems, that's a big cost savings as well.

因此，當我們考慮沒有一些人來維護所有這些機器人系統時，這也可以節省大量成本。

And now we're going to gradually be adding simple automation into GA 4 to make it easier to build a car and that are sort of labor saving devices.

現在，我們將逐步在 GA 4 中添加簡單的自動化功能，以使製造汽車變得更容易，這是一種節省勞動力的設備。

It's fundamental.

這是基本的。

It's already at an efficiency level greater than GA 3, which is pretty impressive.

它的效率已經超過了 GA 3，令人印象深刻。

Our next question comes from James Albertine with Consumer Edge.

我們的下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge 的 James Albertine。

Appreciate all the color you've been providing.

欣賞您提供的所有顏色。

Wanted to dig a little bit deeper though in terms of capital spending plans.

想在資本支出計劃方面深入挖掘。

Considering your growth you've identified in China with the Model Y, we believe also in the EU, it's been discussed about a factory there.

考慮到你們在中國的 Model Y 增長，我們也相信在歐盟，它已經討論過那裡的工廠。

How do you plan to fund all of this growth without going back to the capital markets to raise funds?

您打算如何在不回到資本市場籌集資金的情況下為所有這些增長提供資金？

And can you verify for us whether or not there is a notice from a regulator that would prevent you from raising outside capital?

您能否為我們核實是否有監管機構發出的通知阻止您籌集外部資金？

We do not -- we'll not be raising any equity at any point, at least that's -- I have no expectation of doing so, do not plan to do so.

我們不會——我們不會在任何時候籌集任何股權，至少那是——我不希望這樣做，不打算這樣做。

For China, I think, we -- our default plan would be to use essentially a loan from local banks in China and fund the Gigafactory in Shanghai with local debt essentially.

對於中國，我認為，我們的默認計劃是基本上使用中國當地銀行的貸款，並基本上用當地債務為上海的超級工廠提供資金。

And there are so many -- we could raise money, but I think we don't need to, and we -- yes, I think it's better to just not to.

而且有很多——我們可以籌集資金，但我認為我們不需要，而且我們——是的，我認為最好不要這樣做。

Yes, we're executing on an operating plan that keeps us sufficiently self-funded, despite our CapEx needs and our debts maturing and still keep a very healthy balance on our balance sheet.

是的，儘管我們的資本支出需求和債務到期，並且我們的資產負債表仍然保持非常健康的平衡，但我們正在執行一項讓我們有足夠的自籌資金的運營計劃。

Yes.

是的。

We're -- our default plan is we pay -- starting paying off our debts.

我們 - 我們的默認計劃是我們支付 - 開始償還我們的債務。

I don't mean refi-ing another (inaudible).

我的意思不是重新製作另一個（聽不清）。

For example, this convert that's coming due soon, a couple hundred million, $900 million (inaudible) or something like that.

例如，即將到來的轉換，幾億，9億美元（聽不清）或類似的東西。

We expect to pay that off with internally generated cash flow.

我們希望通過內部產生的現金流來支付這筆費用。

And still be -- still have a healthy cash balance.

而且仍然 - 仍然有健康的現金餘額。

Yes.

是的。

And to answer the other question, there is no such notice from a regulator?

回答另一個問題，監管機構沒有這樣的通知嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I'm not sure it's (inaudible) but there's no such notice from a regulator.

我不確定它是（聽不清），但監管機構沒有這樣的通知。

Our next question comes from George Galliers with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Evercore 的 George Galliers。

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Hey.

嘿。

everybody.

大家。

First is, there's so much love and respect for colleagues and Wall Street analysts on this call.

首先，在這次電話會議上，同事和華爾街分析師受到了極大的愛戴和尊重。

It's almost -- it is lifting my spirits.

幾乎——它讓我精神振奮。

What can I say?

我能說什麼？

I got 2 questions.

我有2個問題。

The first is for the Autopilot team.

第一個是 Autopilot 團隊。

There's an argument that a fully autonomous car is essentially like a terminator that is programmed to save lives in highly complex terrestrial environments.

有一種觀點認為，全自動汽車本質上就像一個終結者，經過編程，可以在高度複雜的陸地環境中拯救生命。

And that this same technology, with a few tweaks, have some pretty obvious military capability.

同樣的技術，經過一些調整，具有一些非常明顯的軍事能力。

Do you see any risk that U.S. companies will ultimately not be allowed to operate weapons grade AI-based technology in a market like China and vice versa?

您是否認為美國公司最終將被禁止在中國這樣的市場上使用基於人工智能的武器級技術，反之亦然？

Well, this has never come up.

好吧，這從來沒有出現過。

I wouldn't call it weapons grade.

我不會稱之為武器等級。

It's just like the car's trying to drive.

這就像汽車試圖駕駛一樣。

And if anything, the autonomous cars will be pretty easy to bully because they'll be optimizing so much for avoiding collision.

如果有的話，自動駕駛汽車將很容易被欺負，因為它們會為避免碰撞而進行大量優化。

So that'll be more of a challenge than anything else, is as soon as somebody sees those cars are autonomous, they know they can like cut them off and the car's going to be doing what it can to avoid a collision.

所以這將比其他任何事情都更具挑戰，一旦有人看到這些汽車是自動駕駛的，他們就知道他們可以像切斷它們一樣，汽車會盡其所能避免碰撞。

So it's like that'll actually be probably a bigger challenge than anything else.

所以這實際上可能是一個比其他任何事情都更大的挑戰。

But we've not encountered anything of the nature of what you're saying.

但是我們沒有遇到任何你所說的性質的事情。

So you don't see autonomous cars as a potential germination or training grounds for things that would have a national security or military interest.

因此，您不會將自動駕駛汽車視為具有國家安全或軍事利益的事物的潛在萌芽或訓練場。

Okay.

好的。

Maybe a follow-up, Elon, and my last question.

也許是後續行動，埃隆和我的最後一個問題。

Who do you think would be a more formidable competitor over time, BMW or Amazon?

你認為隨著時間的推移，誰會成為更強大的競爭對手，寶馬還是亞馬遜？

For Tesla?

對於特斯拉？

For Tesla.

對於特斯拉。

No, I don't think either of them are likely to be -- as far as I know, I mean, I'd be pretty shocked if Amazon got into the car business, but I think BMW has great engineering.

不，我認為它們中的任何一個都不太可能——據我所知，我的意思是，如果亞馬遜涉足汽車業務，我會感到非常震驚，但我認為寶馬的工程技術很棒。

They're -- and it's good to see that they're making some investments in electrification.

他們是 - 很高興看到他們在電氣化方面進行了一些投資。

Hopefully, they do more of that.

希望他們能做得更多。

And I'm not sure where they stand on autonomy.

我不確定他們在自治方面的立場。

That's not on our radar from an autonomy standpoint.

從自治的角度來看，這不在我們的雷達範圍內。

Our next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

_

_

So I wanted to make sure we understand well how you stop burning cash going forward in coming quarters.

因此，我想確保我們充分了解您如何在未來幾個季度停止燒錢。

And my understanding is that an important moving part here probably is -- probably the most important one, is a positive impact of the ramp of the Model 3 on your working capital.

我的理解是，這裡的一個重要的移動部分可能是 - 可能是最重要的一個，是 Model 3 的坡道對您的營運資金的積極影響。

And so I did some quick math on the quarter and I see your payables increased by $430 million while your receivable didn't move much, which makes sense because you get paid on the spot and you pay your suppliers only on a 60-day notice or more.

因此，我對該季度進行了一些快速計算，我發現您的應付賬款增加了 4.3 億美元，而您的應收賬款沒有太大變化，這是有道理的，因為您當場獲得付款，並且您只需提前 60 天通知供應商付款或者更多。

And so if I divide that by the number of incremental cars you've been producing in the quarter, I get to about $23,000 per car.

因此，如果我將其除以您在本季度生產的增量汽車數量，每輛汽車的成本約為 23,000 美元。

And of course, my question is whether this is a good way to think about it, which means that going forward, when you move into Q3 and Q4, every additional car, every additional Model 3 you're going to produce, you're going to bump up payables by something in the region of $20,000, and that's going to be the main driver getting you to breakeven and to stop burning cash.

當然，我的問題是這是否是一個很好的思考方式，這意味著未來，當你進入第三季度和第四季度時，每多一輛汽車，每一輛你要生產的額外 Model 3，你應付賬款將增加 20,000 美元左右，這將是讓您實現盈虧平衡並停止燒錢的主要驅動力。

Yes, Deepak here.

是的，迪帕克在這裡。

I mean, there are many factors.

我的意思是，有很多因素。

Clearly, the working capital benefit of the difference in the payable terms versus collecting cash is one of them.

顯然，應付條款與收取現金的差異所帶來的營運資金收益就是其中之一。

But also, its our gross margin improvement on the business, it's the higher volumes and the higher gross margin resulting in higher gross profit.

而且，我們在業務上的毛利率提高，是更高的銷量和更高的毛利率導致更高的毛利潤。

I'm stating the obvious there on Model 3. Our S and X volumes are increasing, too, in the second half.

我在 Model 3 上說明了這一點。下半年，我們的 S 和 X 銷量也在增加。

That's going to help us significantly.

這將對我們有很大幫助。

And all of our other businesses are improving their profitability while our OpEx is staying essentially flat, so massive leverage in the business.

我們所有其他業務都在提高他們的盈利能力，而我們的運營支出基本保持不變，因此在業務中具有巨大的影響力。

So when you combine all of that, that's what is giving us the cash flow from operations to fund our -- the rest of our business and grow cash.

因此，當您將所有這些結合起來時，這就是為我們提供運營現金流以資助我們的其他業務並增加現金的原因。

I'm stating the obvious, but just I'm summarizing the whole point, yes.

我說的是顯而易見的，但我只是在總結整點，是的。

And in terms of other (inaudible)?

在其他方面（聽不清）？

Sorry, go ahead.

對不起，繼續。

Sorry, what's your question?

對不起，你有什麼問題？

Can you repeat the follow-up?

你能重複跟進嗎？

My follow-up was on a -- in terms of order of magnitude, does like $20,000 per car of payables boost over a 60-day period?

我的後續行動是——就數量級而言，是否會在 60 天內增加每輛車 20,000 美元的應付賬款？

Does that sound like something that make sense or am I missing other moving parts?

這聽起來像是有意義的事情還是我錯過了其他活動部分？

That's a rough order of magnitude, correct.

這是一個粗略的數量級，正確的。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from Romit Shah with Nomura Instinet.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nomura Instinet 的 Romit Shah。

I guess my question's for the Autopilot team.

我想我的問題是針對 Autopilot 團隊的。

We've been looking forward to this fully autonomous coast-to-coast drive.

我們一直期待著這種完全自主的海岸到海岸的行駛。

And, Elon, I think you sort of said on previous calls, if I can paraphrase, that the team's been focused on developing a full self-driving suite that would work basically on all different kinds of road conditions.

而且，埃隆，我想你在之前的電話會議上說過，如果我可以解釋的話，團隊一直專注於開發一個完整的自動駕駛套件，該套件基本上可以在各種不同的道路條件下工作。

And I'm just curious, what's holding back that capability today to go coast-to-coast?

我只是好奇，是什麼阻礙了今天這種跨海岸航行的能力？

And are we closer now that you've strengthened the compute technology?

既然你加強了計算技術，我們離得更近了嗎？

Yes, the -- we can do a coast-to-coast drive especially if we pick a specific route and then write code to really make that route work.

是的，我們可以做一個從海岸到海岸的駕駛，特別是如果我們選擇一條特定的路線，然後編寫代碼來真正使這條路線工作。

We could do a coast-to-coast route drive, but that would be kind of gaming the system, and I think it's really important for the Autopilot team to be focused on fundamental safety of the existing features.

我們可以進行從海岸到海岸的路線駕駛，但這將是一種對系統的博弈，我認為 Autopilot 團隊專注於現有功能的基本安全性非常重要。

So that's -- the focus is really massively on safety of existing features.

所以這就是——真正的重點是現有功能的安全性。

And there's a dev and (inaudible) that can do things like recognize traffic lights and stop signs and make hard right turns and that kind of thing.

並且有一個開發人員和（聽不清）可以做一些事情，比如識別交通信號燈和停車標誌，並做出右轉之類的事情。

But it's not the safety level that [concerts okay for release].

但這不是[音樂會可以發布]的安全級別。

So but -- yes, because it really -- you [work many lines] for liability for anything that's research to end customers.

所以但是 - 是的，因為它真的 - 你[工作很多行]為最終客戶研究的任何事情負責。

So I don't want to take team off that until so we feel like we've really -- kind of really (inaudible) for the core functionality.

所以我不想讓團隊離開，直到我們覺得我們真的 - 有點真的（聽不清）核心功能。

And, Stuart, do you want to add to that?

而且，斯圖爾特，你想補充一下嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, I think, the big thing I'd say is that when you're on, to reiterate (inaudible), there's no question you can kind of build a demo around the stuff.

我的意思是，我認為，我要說的最重要的事情是，當你開始時，重申（聽不清），毫無疑問你可以圍繞這些東西構建一個演示。

The challenge right now for the team is just increasing the safety and utility of Autopilot to over a quarter million cars we have today and pushing more out after that.

團隊目前面臨的挑戰是將 Autopilot 的安全性和實用性提高到我們今天擁有的超過 25 萬輛汽車，然後再推出更多汽車。

So I think, when we look kind of forward to what the next probably 6 to 12 months look like, it's taking those same kind of features that we've been working on, probably deploying them in the form of active safety features.

所以我認為，當我們期待未來 6 到 12 個月的樣子時，它會採用我們一直在研究的相同類型的功能，可能會以主動安全功能的形式部署它們。

Like that's like a thing we can do already, is to understand like use this rich understanding and environment to actually try to keep you safer, to have a beep or break.

就像我們已經可以做的事情一樣，就是理解，就像使用這種豐富的理解和環境來實際嘗試讓你更安全，發出嗶嗶聲或休息。

And then also, of course, like one huge advantage that we have is we can understand what humans actually did in these vehicles and test our software to make sure that we would have made decisions that were similar, if not safer.

當然，還有一個巨大的優勢是，我們可以了解人類在這些車輛中實際做了什麼，並測試我們的軟件，以確保我們做出類似的決定，如果不是更安全的話。

So that's going to be a huge part of what we do over the next probably 2 quarters.

因此，這將成為我們在接下來的兩個季度中所做工作的重要組成部分。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, that said, we might be able to pull off coast-to-coast demo before the end of the year if we -- but really, like right now, if the Super has now focused on the version 9 software release, which has got a number of really cool things in it, and we're hoping to get that out to a [reaccess] program at the -- in about 4 weeks and then broadly in September.

我的意思是，也就是說，如果我們能夠在今年年底之前完成從東海岸到西海岸的演示——但實際上，就像現在一樣，如果 Super 現在專注於版本 9 軟件版本，裡面有很多很酷的東西，我們希望在大約 4 週內將其發佈到 [reaccess] 計劃中，然後大致在 9 月。

That's the hardcore focus right now, and that'll certainly include some significant advancements in autonomy.

這是目前的核心焦點，這肯定包括自主性方面的一些重大進步。

And then once that's out and stable, I think that could be a good time to work on the coast-to-coast driving.

然後一旦穩定下來，我認為這可能是進行海岸到海岸駕駛的好時機。

I don't know if you guys have shared what attach rates are for Autopilot.

我不知道你們是否分享了 Autopilot 的附加費率。

I'm just, as my follow-up, I guess I'm curious what you can do to increase the number of cars that have that functionality.

我只是，作為我的後續行動，我想我很好奇你能做些什麼來增加具有這種功能的汽車的數量。

It would seem like some of the effects on [outer margins] and cash flows could be pretty positive.

看起來對[外部利潤率]和現金流的一些影響可能是相當積極的。

Yes, I think it's extremely powerful once people are comfortable using the technology and see just how much utility it brings.

是的，我認為一旦人們習慣了使用這項技術並看到它帶來了多少效用，它就會變得非常強大。

I think that is a very significant potential for margin gain in the future.

我認為這是未來利潤增長的巨大潛力。

But it's contingent on that functionality really making a difference.

但這取決於該功能是否真正有所作為。

I think we will really start to see some of the breakthrough stuff in about a month or so.

我認為我們將在大約一個月左右的時間裡真正開始看到一些突破性的東西。

Our next question comes from John Murphy with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰墨菲。

Just a first question, is it fair to assume the GA4 in the tent is now essentially permanent?

只是第一個問題，假設帳篷中的 GA4 現在基本上是永久性的是否公平？

And if so, is this potentially a new model for capacity and capacity additions it much -- might be much more capital efficient over time?

如果是這樣，這是否可能是一種新的產能和產能增加模式——隨著時間的推移，資本效率可能會更高？

(inaudible)

（聽不清）

It's permanent for now.

現在是永久的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, unless we come -- until we come up with something different or better.

是的，除非我們來——直到我們想出不同或更好的東西。

But personally, I think it's a good model to start assembly of any product.

但就個人而言，我認為這是開始組裝任何產品的好模型。

There's a lot of flexibility and then we can build and iterate over it, yes.

有很大的靈活性，然後我們可以構建和迭代它，是的。

Like necessity is the mother of invention and when you have to do something quickly, then it just -- you just don't have time to spend a lot of capital.

就像需求是發明之母，當你必須快速做某事時，它只是——你只是沒有時間花費大量資金。

So it forces you to be capital efficient.

所以它迫使你提高資本效率。

Yes, it's taught us a lot of lessons on how to be capital efficient in the general assembly.

是的，它教會了我們很多關於如何在大會中提高資本效率的教訓。

And so in that sense, those lessons will carry forward, John.

所以從這個意義上說，這些課程將繼續下去，約翰。

Yes.

是的。

I think still, by and large, what we will be aiming for is still frame buildings.

我認為，總的來說，我們的目標仍然是框架建築。

To be clear, stuff like -- we're probably going to just (inaudible) picking up tents everywhere.

需要明確的是，諸如——我們可能只是（聽不清）到處收拾帳篷。

I mean, the tent itself might be a little bit of a distraction from actually the focus of what's happening inside.

我的意思是，帳篷本身可能會分散人們對內部正在發生的事情的關注。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

And that's a similar methodology that we kind of reverted back to and then moved forward from in the module, where we simplified and then did a very, very linear intuitive process that was a bit more manual and they have automated and scaled that up as we understand it and get good control of it.

這是一種類似的方法，我們在模塊中恢復然後向前推進，我們在模塊中簡化，然後做了一個非常非常線性的直觀過程，這有點手動，他們已經自動化並擴大了我們了解它並很好地控制它。

And I think that's a lesson that we're taking to heart broadly across other things that we're going to do in the future, and it's an efficient way to scale up.

我認為這是我們在未來將要做的其他事情中廣泛關注的一個教訓，這是擴大規模的有效方式。

I mean, you've got replication of that simplicity why you think Shanghai could be that much less costly and that the Model Y capacity might be that much less costly to add.

我的意思是，您已經復制了這種簡單性，為什麼您認為上海的成本可能會低得多，而 Model Y 產能的增加成本可能會低得多。

Yes, Model Y was sort of separate thing, but it's definitely one of the elements that convinced us that we can scale up quickly and at low CapEx in Shanghai.

是的，Model Y 是一個獨立的東西，但它絕對是讓我們相信我們可以在上海以低資本支出快速擴大規模的因素之一。

We were doing improved version of GA4 and then we'll also -- we're going to have -- make the paint shop a lot simpler and general assembly a lot simpler.

我們正在做 GA4 的改進版本，然後我們還將——我們將擁有——讓噴漆車間變得更簡單，總裝也更簡單。

And after this call, I'm headed up back out to the body shop (inaudible)

打完電話後，我要返回車身修理廠（聽不清）

Body shop

車身修理廠

Maybe the body shop will

也許車身修理廠會

(inaudible) make it simpler.

（聽不清）讓它更簡單。

Yes, we can really [simplify] the body shop then.

是的，我們真的可以[簡化]車身修理廠。

Wow.

哇。

And there's a lot that are really easy to improve like design to manufacturing and changing -- change some of the joining (inaudible) that we use and actually make the car lighter, cheaper and better, actually safer.

還有很多東西真的很容易改進，比如從設計到製造和改變——改變我們使用的一些連接（聽不清），實際上讓汽車更輕、更便宜、更好、更安全。

It's really ridiculous to say (inaudible), but yes.

說（聽不清）真的很荒謬，但是是的。

(inaudible) Maybe just to follow up quickly, I think some people have taken this like a walk back from automation, which is not really accurate either.

（聽不清）也許只是為了快速跟進，我認為有些人認為這就像從自動化中走回來一樣，這也不是很準確。

This is basically -- I mean, a more thoughtful and focused way to apply automation to the actual issues that matter most.

這基本上是——我的意思是，一種更周到、更專注的方式，將自動化應用於最重要的實際問題。

Yes, well said.

是的，說得好。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Actually it's really worth emphasizing J.B.'s point here.

實際上，這裡真的值得強調 J.B. 的觀點。

Yes, worth saying again.

是的，值得再說一遍。

Yes, it's not an overall reduction in automation.

是的，這並不是自動化的整體降低。

It is a focusing of our efforts on automating the processes and the value-add processes that matter the most.

這是我們努力實現流程自動化和最重要的增值流程的重點。

And I think we got maybe a little bit distracted on this first round automating a lot of things that added complexity that didn't necessarily speed up.

而且我認為我們在第一輪中可能有點分心，自動化了很多增加複雜性的事情，這些事情不一定會加速。

And...

和...

Way too fancy.

太花哨了

And we can save...

我們可以節省...

Start simple and get fancy later.

從簡單開始，以後變得花哨。

Don't start fancy.

不要開始幻想。

Fancy's going to bite you in the ass.

幻想會咬你的屁股。

But if it's not difficult, I refer to the dark ages of all manual everything.

但如果不難的話，我指的是所有手動一切的黑暗時代。

That's not all the case.

情況並非如此。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, Gigafactory is...

我的意思是，超級工廠是...

Massively automated.

大規模自動化。

Massively automated.

大規模自動化。

It's pretty -- it looks -- it's pretty crazy and -- but the body production was also heavily automated.

它很漂亮——看起來——非常瘋狂而且——但車身生產也高度自動化。

Most some (inaudible) robots.

大多數（聽不清）機器人。

So it's a mix of people and automation.

所以這是人和自動化的結合。

There's so much that goes into producing a car, going from raw metal and plastic and glass to an actual finished car.

生產汽車有很多東西，從原始金屬、塑料和玻璃到真正的成品汽車。

And yes, so if you're saying (inaudible) is highly automated.

是的，所以如果您說（聽不清）是高度自動化的。

Okay.

好的。

If I can sneak in one quick follow-up, I mean, when we look at the grosses on the Model 3, you're saying 15% in 3Q, 20% in 4Q, and I think the ultimate target is 25%.

如果我可以快速跟進，我的意思是，當我們查看 Model 3 的票房時，你說的是第三季度 15%，第四季度 20%，我認為最終目標是 25%。

I mean, what are the average transaction prices you guys are assuming?

我的意思是，你們假設的平均交易價格是多少？

I mean, it sounds they're going to be a bit higher earlier, but is that 25% gross ultimately still built around the low 40,000 ATP?

我的意思是，聽起來他們會更早一點，但那 25% 的總收入最終仍然圍繞著低 40,000 ATP 建立嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So the simple answer is yes.

所以簡單的答案是肯定的。

It will be lower ASPs than what we have today clearly.

這將明顯低於我們今天的平均售價。

And we are having a richer mix of all-wheel drive, as Elon alluded to earlier, so that's going to help.

正如埃隆早些時候提到的那樣，我們正在擁有更豐富的全輪驅動組合，所以這會有所幫助。

But yes, 25% is still the target that we have ahead of us.

但是，是的，25% 仍然是我們面前的目標。

I'm highly confident that -- it may not be Q1, but I'd be shocked if it's not Q2 that we get to 25%.

我非常有信心——可能不是第一季度，但如果不是第二季度我們達到 25%，我會感到震驚。

Our next question comes from [Alex Dirpes] with Berenberg.

我們的下一個問題來自 [Alex Dirpes] 和 Berenberg。

I would like to come back to the point made on the manufacturing efficiencies.

我想回到關於製造效率的觀點。

I mean, over the 2 main challenges of Tesla, but also for the rest of the industry is the manufacturing parts, which has been overcome by a lot of companies already, with the second one being the technology part.

我的意思是，除了特斯拉的兩個主要挑戰之外，對於其他行業來說，製造零部件也是如此，許多公司已經克服了這一挑戰，第二個挑戰是技術部分。

My question is, how would you describe the learning curve of the manufacturing process versus technology?

我的問題是，您如何描述製造過程與技術的學習曲線？

And what is really the pace of advancements you're making?

你真正取得的進步速度是多少？

Because it looks like on the manufacturing side, the curve (inaudible) meaningfully accelerated here?

因為看起來在製造方面，曲線（聽不清）在這裡有意義地加速了？

Well, I don't really know actually how others do it, to be totally frank.

好吧，坦率地說，我真的不知道其他人是如何做到的。

I just know that what we -- the way we -- I see the way we're doing it and I'm told that this is how others do it and we are able to find ways to make it much better.

我只知道我們 - 我們的方式 - 我看到了我們正在做的方式，我被告知這是其他人的做法，我們能夠找到讓它變得更好的方法。

I guess, I...

我想，我...

I don't know what the delta would be there.

我不知道三角洲會在那裡。

We also don't really, I think, differentiate it quite the way maybe you're implying.

我認為，我們也沒有真正區分它，也許你暗示的方式。

I mean, technology and manufacturing are sort of one and the same in many cases, and we're treating a lot of the manufacturing problems as a technology problem and applying our design teams, our technology teams, if you want to call them, that to solving those issues.

我的意思是，在許多情況下，技術和製造是一回事，我們將很多製造問題視為技術問題，並應用我們的設計團隊，我們的技術團隊，如果你想稱呼他們，來解決這些問題。

So I think the learning curves in some ways are quite similar.

所以我認為學習曲線在某些方面非常相似。

Yes.

是的。

It's amazing how much of production is actually software.

令人驚訝的是，有多少產品實際上是軟件。

Yes.

是的。

And we're really quite good at software relative to other car companies.

相對於其他汽車公司，我們確實非常擅長軟件。

And manufacturing at volume is mostly a software problem.

批量生產主要是軟件問題。

I think that was not well appreciated.

我認為這沒有得到很好的評價。

I think maybe one other lesson learned is that it's obviously not the best approach or best efficiency to outsource some of that development.

我認為也許另一個教訓是，外包一些開發顯然不是最好的方法或最佳效率。

Some of the areas that we struggle the most through the Model 3 ramp were those where we had perhaps less visibility and less control and less direct kind of skin in the game on how those production lines were designed and built.

在 Model 3 坡道中，我們最掙扎的一些領域是那些我們可能在遊戲中對這些生產線的設計和建造方式的可見性和控制力較低以及不太直接的皮膚。

And these are cases where we took -- we engaged with companies that were supposed to be world-class experts in automotive production, and we just assumed that they would do -- that their stuff would work, but it didn't.

這些是我們採取的案例——我們與應該是世界級汽車生產專家的公司合作，我們只是假設他們會這樣做——他們的東西會起作用，但事實並非如此。

Yes.

是的。

So that learning curve often involves Tesla coming directly and understanding the process intimately and simplifying it and then essentially doing our own design or changes to the lines that were built.

因此，學習曲線通常涉及特斯拉直接進入並密切了解過程並簡化它，然後基本上進行我們自己的設計或對已建造的生產線進行更改。

And I think that's a key learning point that we've taken.

我認為這是我們已經採取的一個關鍵學習點。

And I think the way that we can do this a lot more efficiently in the future is kind of doing that approach from the start.

而且我認為我們將來可以更有效地做到這一點的方式是從一開始就採用這種方法。

Yes, just having that very rapid iteration between design and production is incredibly helpful.

是的，在設計和生產之間進行非常快速的迭代是非常有幫助的。

And we're now -- we understand, for example, what are the weight limiters and what makes it hard to produce battery modules.

我們現在 - 例如，我們了解什麼是重量限制器，以及是什麼讓電池模塊難以生產。

And we came up with a new design that achieved the same outcome.

我們想出了一個新的設計，達到了同樣的效果。

It's actually lighter, better, cheaper and we'll be infusing that around the end of this year probably reach volume production on that in Q1 or something that will -- yes, we call that lighter, better and cheaper and achieve higher rates.

它實際上更輕、更好、更便宜，我們將在今年年底左右注入這一點，可能會在第一季度達到量產或其他東西——是的，我們稱之為更輕、更好、更便宜並實現更高的生產率。

And that line is under construction.

這條線正在建設中。

It will be -- yes, active in about 6 months.

它將——是的，在大約 6 個月內活躍。

Yes, there's -- we did this somewhat the first time around, but now there is, I think, even more exciting understanding of the value of having those, as Elon said, having the design engineers just working intimately with automation and line engineers simplifying the process as they're designing a product.

是的，有——我們第一次這樣做了，但我認為，現在有更令人興奮的理解，正如埃隆所說，讓設計工程師與自動化和生產線工程師密切合作簡化他們設計產品的過程。

Yes.

是的。

And I mean, I -- because we're sort of desperate to try to get the production working, we actually took designers (inaudible) team and had them work in the factory and improve -- work on production and it's given them tremendous insight into how they need to change the designs in the future to make it easier to produce because you feel the pain directly.

我的意思是，我——因為我們非常渴望讓生產工作，我們實際上讓設計師（聽不清）團隊，讓他們在工廠工作並改進——生產工作，這給了他們巨大的洞察力了解他們將來需要如何更改設計以使其更容易生產，因為您會直接感受到痛苦。

Exactly.

確切地。

Yes.

是的。

That's the cruel thing.

這就是殘酷的事情。

Like, okay...

比如，好吧...

I won't do it anymore.

我不會再這樣做了。

Then I realize I was like torturing people with my terrible design.

然後我意識到我就像用我糟糕的設計來折磨別人。

Now I know.

現在我知道了。

Our next question comes from Ben Kallo with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ben Kallo 和 Baird。

Elon, (inaudible) unless everything else (inaudible).

Elon，（聽不清），除非其他一切（聽不清）。

(inaudible)

（聽不清）

Deepak, so after July here, how close are you to cash flow positive?

迪帕克，那麼在 7 月之後，您離正現金流有多近？

Sorry, your question is, after July, how close are we to cash flow positive?

抱歉，您的問題是，在 7 月之後，我們離正現金流還有多遠？

Yes.

是的。

You have July in the books here.

你在這裡的書中有七月。

So how close are you to (inaudible)?

那麼你離（聽不清）有多近？

Yes, well we don't have -- (inaudible) this one, we don't have July results done.

是的，我們沒有——（聽不清）這個，我們沒有完成 7 月份的結果。

But it doesn't matter exactly where we are in the month of July.

但是，我們在 7 月份所處的位置並不重要。

What really matters is over the quarter because it depends on deliveries, depends on production, many.

真正重要的是這個季度，因為它取決於交付，取決於生產，很多。

many factors.

很多因素。

So we will be significantly cash flow positive for the quarter.

因此，我們本季度的現金流將顯著為正。

I think that's what really matters.

我認為這才是真正重要的。

Yes.

是的。

[I think the logical] question is like, do we have like a low balance in the bank?

[我認為合乎邏輯的]問題是，我們銀行的餘額是否很低？

The answer is no, we've got -- we're in no -- we're not in any kind of cash flow (inaudible).

答案是否定的，我們有——我們沒有——我們沒有任何現金流（聽不清）。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, if that's the -- yes, I mean, that's the simple answer.

我的意思是，如果那是——是的，我的意思是，這就是簡單的答案。

Are we running low on money?

我們的錢不夠用了嗎？

The answer is no.

答案是不。

No, no, no, that's not the question.

不，不，不，這不是問題。

It's just as you're here and you have -- you're selling your higher-priced cars for a better margin, how does the third quarter look from what you said from being cash flow positive?

就像您在這裡一樣，您正在出售價格更高的汽車以獲得更高的利潤，從您所說的現金流為正的情況來看，第三季度的情況如何？

Yes, yes, I'd say highly confident of being cash flow positive and being GAAP profitable in Q3 .

是的，是的，我非常有信心在第三季度實現正現金流和 GAAP 盈利。

We're sitting here today saying that based on what our expectation is.

我們今天坐在這裡說，基於我們的期望。

So yes, sitting here (inaudible)

所以是的，坐在這裡（聽不清）

Based on everything we know at the end of July, it's 1 month in.

根據我們在 7 月底所知道的一切，現在是 1 個月。

We're highly confident of being cash flow positive and GAAP profitable in Q3 and Q4.

我們非常有信心在第三季度和第四季度實現正現金流和 GAAP 盈利。

And now there could be a force majeure event like an earthquake (inaudible), something like that or massive recession all of a sudden.

現在可能會發生諸如地震（聽不清）之類的不可抗力事件，或者突然之間發生大規模衰退。

But in the absence of that, of really unusual macro events, yes.

但如果沒有這種情況，沒有真正不尋常的宏觀事件，是的。

Our next question comes from Tim Higgins for The Wall Street Journal.

我們的下一個問題來自《華爾街日報》的蒂姆·希金斯。

A question for you.

給你一個問題。

Do you still plan to make a total of 1 million vehicles in the calendar year of 2020?

您是否仍計劃在 2020 年全年生產 100 萬輛汽車？

I think so, yes.

我想是的，是的。

If it's not a million, it's going to be pretty close.

如果不是一百萬，那將非常接近。

I'd say it's not a million, it's probably 750 or something like that in 2020.

我想說這不是一百萬，可能是 2020 年的 750 或類似的數字。

We're aiming for a million in 2020, but somewhere between 0.5 million and 1 million seems pretty likely.

我們的目標是在 2020 年達到 100 萬，但在 50 萬到 100 萬之間似乎很有可能。

Where do you get the capacity to do that?

你從哪裡獲得這樣做的能力？

There's this place called Shanghai.

有個地方叫上海。

Okay.

好的。

Shanghai will be important for that?

上海會很重要嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Where does the Model Y...

Y型在哪裡...

Yes, I think so.

是的，我想是這樣。

And I think we can do over 0.5 million vehicles -- well, actually probably more like 600,000 vehicles with current Giga in Fremont.

而且我認為我們可以生產超過 50 萬輛汽車——嗯，實際上可能更像是 600,000 輛汽車，目前在弗里蒙特擁有 Giga。

And so then if you throw like 100, 200 more (inaudible) couple actually today from Shanghai.

所以如果你今天從上海扔出 100 到 200 對（聽不清）夫婦。

And I said, we'll probably (inaudible) with Fremont and Giga in Nevada.

我說，我們可能（聽不清）在內華達州的 Fremont 和 Giga。

That's why I think maybe -- I think we have a shot at 1 million.

這就是為什麼我認為也許——我認為我們有機會達到 100 萬。

But some of that was 700,000 or 800,000 seems pretty likely given the current what we know today.

但考慮到我們今天所知道的情況，其中一些是 700,000 或 800,000 似乎很有可能。

Have you made any decisions on where you're going to make the Model Y?

你有沒有決定在哪裡製造 Model Y？

Maybe you'd like to tell me?

也許你想告訴我？

Not yet.

還沒有。

So.

所以。

Do you expect to announce that this year, though?

不過，您預計今年會宣布這一消息嗎？

Maybe.

也許。

Maybe.

也許。

I should say we are hoping to identify a Gigafactory location in Europe before the end of this year.

我應該說我們希望在今年年底之前在歐洲確定一個 Gigafactory 的位置。

It's not for sure, but we are hoping to do that before the end of the year.

不確定，但我們希望在今年年底之前做到這一點。

Our next question comes from Zachary Shahan with CleanTechnica.

我們的下一個問題來自 CleanTechnica 的 Zachary Shahan。

First of all, thanks for the recent retweet, Elon.

首先，感謝 Elon 最近的轉發。

I was really, really impressed with the Model 3 after (inaudible), and so I'm really impressed how much you've developed since the early days.

之後的 Model 3 給我留下了非常非常深刻的印象（聽不清），因此我對你們從早期以來的發展程度印象深刻。

My first question was about conquest fails actually.

我的第一個問題是關於征服實際上失敗了。

Right before the call, we published an article that Camry sales were down 22% year-over-year, Prius sales were down 23% year-over-year, and we're very curious how much you're pulling from these other cars, other segments.

就在電話會議之前，我們發表了一篇文章說凱美瑞的銷量同比下降了 22%，普銳斯的銷量同比下降了 23%，我們很好奇你從這些其他汽車中拉了多少, 其他部分。

It sounds like you've sort of answered that question at the beginning, but can you give anything in terms of what percentage those top 5 are in terms of trade-in sales and how broad you're pulling?

聽起來您在一開始就回答了這個問題，但是您能否提供前 5 名在以舊換新銷售方面的百分比以及您的拉動範圍有多大？

I know you pull from pickup trucks, from sports cars.

我知道你從皮卡車上拉，從跑車上拉。

Can you speak a little more about the diversity you're pulling from?

你能多談談你從中汲取的多樣性嗎？

Actually we don't -- actually what we have right now is just the top 5. (inaudible) what the allocation is between top 5 or where it goes beyond top 5. We're just sort of (inaudible) top 5 breakdown.

實際上我們沒有——實際上我們現在擁有的只是前 5 名。（聽不清）前 5 名之間的分配或超出前 5 名的地方。我們只是（聽不清）前 5 名的細分。

And it's just interesting that a few are trading up into a Tesla, so they're willing to spend more money on a Tesla than their current car just based on the trade-in values.

有趣的是，有些人正在換購特斯拉，所以他們願意在特斯拉上花比他們目前的汽車更多的錢，只是基於以舊換新的價值。

I mean, a Civic is a very inexpensive car compared to a -- particularly the Model 3 today.

我的意思是，與今天的 Model 3 相比，思域是一款非常便宜的汽車。

So that's promising from a market access standpoint.

因此，從市場准入的角度來看，這是有希望的。

But of course, we're going to do the Model Y and compact SUV.

但當然，我們要做 Y 型和緊湊型 SUV。

We're going to do pickup truck, the Semi, the next-generation Roadster.

我們要做皮卡車，Semi，下一代 Roadster。

I mean, we have such awesome ideas and probably the biggest limiter on our growth is like how fast can we grow battery production and especially cell production on the wholesale supply chain, I think will be the fundamental determinant of Tesla's growth.

我的意思是，我們有這麼棒的想法，我們增長的最大限制可能是我們能以多快的速度增長電池生產，尤其是批發供應鏈上的電池生產，我認為這將是特斯拉增長的根本決定因素。

We're super fired up to the (inaudible).

我們對（聽不清）非常興奮。

Like I think they're all super cool.

就像我認為他們都超級酷。

I know (inaudible) Semi, and that's pretty wicked obviously and -- it's pretty -- it's great.

我知道（聽不清）Semi，這顯然很邪惡，而且 - 很漂亮 - 很棒。

And we are ramping -- we've actually faired -- we made significant improvements in the designs since the unveiling that we had and so really even better than what we talked about.

而且我們正在加速 - 我們實際上已經完成了 - 自我們所擁有的揭幕以來，我們對設計進行了重大改進，因此真的比我們談論的更好。

The -- probably my personal favorite for the next product is pickup truck and we're just doing an amazing pickup truck.

可能我個人最喜歡的下一個產品是皮卡車，而我們只是在做一輛很棒的皮卡車。

And the Model Y compact SUV, probably the most popular car category in the world, obviously going to sell pretty well.

而 Model Y 緊湊型 SUV，可能是世界上最受歡迎的汽車類別，顯然會賣得很好。

So a lot of cool things.

所以很多很酷的東西。

And of course, [fuel cell] energy getting the -- we're kind of self-starved for (inaudible).

當然，[燃料電池] 能源得到了——我們有點自食其力（聽不清）。

So we actually had to artificially lift the Powerwalls because we don't have enough cells.

所以我們實際上不得不人工舉起 Powerwall，因為我們沒有足夠的細胞。

So we're (inaudible) for that very rapidly, and we expect to ramp up Powerwall and Powerpack production substantially later this year and early next.

所以我們（聽不清）非常迅速，我們希望在今年晚些時候和明年初大幅提高 Powerwall 和 Powerpack 的產量。

And as well as getting (inaudible) -- as well as ramping up of the solar and then the Solar Roof.

以及獲得（聽不清）——以及增加太陽能，然後是太陽能屋頂。

We now have several hundred homes with Solar Roof on them, and that's going well.

我們現在有數百個裝有太陽能屋頂的房屋，而且進展順利。

It takes a while to just confirm that Solar Roof is going to last for 30 years and all the details work out and working with first responders to make sure it's safe in the event of a fire and that kind of thing.

需要一段時間才能確認 Solar Roof 將持續 30 年，並且所有細節都已解決，並與急救人員合作以確保在發生火災等情況下它是安全的。

So it's quite a long validation program for a roof which is going to last for 30, 40, 50 years.

因此，對於將持續 30、40、50 年的屋頂，這是一個相當長的驗證計劃。

But that we also expect to ramp that up next year at Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo.

但我們也希望明年在布法羅的 Gigafactory 2 中提高這一點。

That's going to be super exciting.

這將是非常令人興奮的。

So (inaudible) I think we're (inaudible) if there's a company with a better product roadmap.

所以（聽不清）我認為我們（聽不清）如果有一家公司擁有更好的產品路線圖。

I'd like to know what it is because like this is what -- we got some super awesome stuff coming.

我想知道它是什麼，因為就像這樣——我們得到了一些超級棒的東西。

Yes.

是的。

And regarding the Model Y, there's been a lot of questioning if you're going to have the same process as with Model 3 with reservations, if you can shorten the reservation timeline or if you're going to have a different process this time around.

關於 Model Y，有很多疑問，如果你將有與 Model 3 相同的預訂流程，你是否可以縮短預訂時間，或者這次你是否會有不同的流程.

We haven't made a final decision on that.

我們還沒有就此做出最終決定。

So last question, then.

那麼最後一個問題。

Regarding the daily production, we've been seeing a sort of a rise and fall with the daily production of the Model 3 as you incorporate new performance or white seats.

關於日常生產，我們已經看到 Model 3 的日常生產出現了某種起落，因為您加入了新的性能或白色座椅。

Can you speak at all -- we always like to get the technical side of what you're doing there.

你能不能說一下——我們總是喜歡了解你在那裡所做的事情的技術方面。

Can you tell what the bottlenecks are right now that you're working through?

你能說出你現在正在解決的瓶頸是什麼嗎？

And what we can sort of -- how we can picture ourselves in the factory there with you?

我們能做些什麼——我們如何想像自己在工廠里和你在一起？

All right.

好的。

And the thing -- actually what I love about your writing is that you really care about getting the details right and you really understand things well, which is awesome.

事情——實際上我喜歡你寫作的地方是你真的很關心把細節寫對，你真的很好地理解了事情，這太棒了。

And -- but after what -- be careful I don't have soundbite that is then for those that don't have a nuanced appreciation of the situation, that soundbite then gets -- becomes front-page news.

而且 - 但之後 - 小心我沒有聲音片段，然後對於那些對情況沒有細微差別的人來說，聲音片段然後得到 - 成為頭版新聞。

That's like, nope, that's not what I meant.

就像，不，這不是我的意思。

Exactly.

確切地。

And like, oh, man.

就像，哦，伙計。

this is like (inaudible) But the -- right now, the biggest constraint on production again, do not -- please don't make federal case out of this because (inaudible) so like in a matter of like a week or 2. It's like it's body production, so that's why -- I mean, you can certainly tell what am I personally working on that's going to be a bottleneck in the company.

這就像（聽不清）但是——現在，再次是對生產的最大限制，不要——請不要以此為由提出聯邦案例，因為（聽不清）就像在一周或兩週內一樣。這就像它的身體生產，所以這就是為什麼 - 我的意思是，你當然可以知道我個人在做什麼，這將成為公司的瓶頸。

So most likely producing Model 3 bodies.

所以最有可能生產 Model 3 車身。

We made huge progress in the last few weeks and, in fact, I was just told that we're able to achieve our first 24-hour period where we made over 800 Model 3 bodies, which is pretty great.

我們在過去幾週取得了巨大的進步，事實上，我剛剛被告知我們能夠在第一個 24 小時內製造超過 800 輛 Model 3 車身，這非常棒。

And so that sets us -- so we just make sure again that we sustain that 800-plus per day rate.

所以這讓我們 - 所以我們再次確保我們維持每天 800 多個的速度。

And then (inaudible) is doing great.

然後（聽不清）做得很好。

GA's doing great.

GA做得很好。

Yes, it's good.

是，很好。

A quick request.

一個快速的請求。

Years ago, you warned about a coming short tsunami and it seemed obvious that it was coming, but the shorts didn't really seem to recognize it and then sort of attacked you, trolled you for months.

多年前，你警告過一場即將到來的海嘯，看起來很明顯它即將到來，但短褲似乎並沒有真正意識到它，然後有點攻擊你，拖了你幾個月。

And then finally, it came.

然後終於，它來了。

You again warned very honestly, I think, very directly that there is going to be a short -- kind of epic short squeeze.

你再次非常誠實地警告，我認為，非常直接的警告將會有一個空頭 - 一種史詩般的空頭擠壓。

We have, I think, the whole community has a little request.

我們有，我認為，整個社區都有一點要求。

Don't let the trolls get you down.

不要讓巨魔讓你失望。

Don't see the trolls too much, but we do like it when you tease the trolls a bit.

不要過多地看到巨魔，但是當您稍微取笑巨魔時，我們確實喜歡它。

So you do your judgment, but thanks a lot for what you're doing.

所以你做你的判斷，但非常感謝你所做的。

Right.

正確的。

Well, thank you for your enough coverage of [cleanup] energy technology.

好吧，感謝您對 [cleanup] 能源技術的充分報導。

And the very last question comes from Galileo Russell who represents the retail shareholders.

最後一個問題來自代表散戶股東的伽利略羅素。

Congrats on awesome quarter.

恭喜這個季度很棒。

Really proud to be a Tesla shareholder with the Model 3 ramping to 5,000 a week.

能夠成為特斯拉股東真的很自豪，因為 Model 3 每週產量達到 5,000 輛。

And I think you may have touched on this, but I'm curious, will Tesla ever produce vehicles at Gigafactory 1, maybe the Semi?

我想你可能已經談到了這一點，但我很好奇，特斯拉是否會在 Gigafactory 1 生產車輛，也許是 Semi？

And then I'm curious on any manufacturing synergies between the Semi and the Model 3.

然後我很好奇 Semi 和 Model 3 之間的製造協同效應。

Oh interesting questions.

哦有趣的問題。

You always ask us really, really interesting questions.

你總是問我們非常非常有趣的問題。

Really, really interesting questions that I cannot actually -- the first one, I cannot -- it gets so much attention where we put production, so I cannot answer any like where we're going to put production questions.

真的，非常有趣的問題，我實際上不能——第一個，我不能——它在我們將生產放在哪裡引起瞭如此多的關注，所以我無法回答任何像我們將要放在哪裡生產的問題。

The -- but will the Semi use a bunch of Model 3 technology, the answer is yes.

——不過Semi會不會使用一堆Model 3技術，答案是肯定的。

Jerome, I don't know if you want to elaborate on that or...

杰羅姆，我不知道你是想詳細說明還是...

Well, I mean, you can already see in the prototype that we've had virtually out of the Model 3 component, the screen, the door handles, I mean, as much as possible -- yes, the motors, yes, and the prototype a lot of the cell technology.

嗯，我的意思是，你已經可以在原型中看到，我們幾乎沒有使用 Model 3 組件，屏幕，門把手，我的意思是，盡可能多的——是的，電機，是的，還有原型很多的細胞技術。

But there are some changes and I'd rather not say it in public, yes.

但是有一些變化，我寧願不公開說，是的。

Obviously, it's going to be better than what we showed last year, a lot of improvements.

顯然，它會比我們去年展示的更好，有很多改進。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

So hopefully, you can talk more about this.

所以希望你能多談談這個。

With the battery project with PG&E that was recently announced, I'm wondering if you can elaborate how you're prioritizing battery pack between auto and energy storage.

對於最近宣布的 PG&E 電池項目，我想知道您是否可以詳細說明如何在汽車和儲能之間優先考慮電池組。

Because it seems like you ramped auto battery packs to 20 gigawatt hours in the past 12 months, but are only guiding for about 1 gigawatt hour of Tesla energy installation in the next year.

因為在過去的 12 個月中，您似乎將汽車電池組的電量提高到了 20 吉瓦時，但僅指導了明年大約 1 吉瓦時的特斯拉能源安裝。

So I'm wondering why is Tesla Energy, given its supply constraints, like why not ramp that supply to 10 gigawatts?

所以我想知道為什麼特斯拉能源公司，考慮到它的供應限制，為什麼不把供應量提高到 10 吉瓦？

It seems like the guidance is still low there.

那裡的指導似乎仍然很低。

Yes.

是的。

It's -- as Elon suggested earlier, we are -- essentially, it makes sense for us to prioritize Model 3. But we are adding a ton of capacity, self-capacity, and J.B. could talk more about it, that will enable us too dramatically ramp our energy storage business as well in the coming quarters.

正如 Elon 之前建議的那樣，我們本質上是，優先考慮 Model 3 對我們來說是有意義的。但是我們正在增加大量的容量，自我容量，J.B. 可以更多地談論它，這也將使我們能夠在未來幾個季度，我們的儲能業務也將大幅增長。

Yes.

是的。

You kind of mentioned only 1 gigawatt hour, but that's a big number in that business, and it's maybe on the order of 300% what we did the prior year.

您提到的只有 1 吉瓦時，但這在該行業中是一個很大的數字，可能是我們前一年所做的 300%。

And we're still aiming at maybe another 3, 3x to 4x growth for 2019.

我們的目標仍然是在 2019 年再實現 3、3 到 4 倍的增長。

So we're at scale.

所以我們有規模。

These are insane growth levels.

這些是瘋狂的增長水平。

Crazy growth rate.

瘋狂的增長速度。

It's a little like serving software.

這有點像服務軟件。

This is like you actually need to build those -- like a lot of atoms but (inaudible) you know what I mean?

這就像你實際上需要構建那些——比如很多原子但是（聽不清）你知道我的意思嗎？

Like once you build software, you can obviously have lots of copies, but there's like a lot of really complicated atoms, man.

就像一旦你構建了軟件，你顯然可以有很多副本，但是有很多非常複雜的原子，伙計。

Maybe specifically also to your cell -- to the cell limitation question, I think this has been mentioned before, but we also do use some other vendors.

也許還特別針對您的單元——針對單元限制問題，我認為這在之前已經提到過，但我們也確實使用了其他一些供應商。

Yes, we start [accelerating in LG] and...

是的，我們開始 [在 LG 中加速] 並且...

Exactly, our energy products.

沒錯，就是我們的能源產品。

So I heard people feel like this is kind of a zero-sum game or something with Model 3, but that is not the case.

所以我聽說人們覺得這有點像 Model 3 的零和遊戲，但事實並非如此。

We do a partial-sum game (inaudible) we did shut down this Powerwall cell line for Model 3, to be totally honest, but we kind of have to do that.

我們做了一個部分和遊戲（聽不清），我們確實為 Model 3 關閉了這個 Powerwall 電池線，老實說，但我們不得不這樣做。

But that's -- we're adding new cell lines, and we'll be able to address that issue very soon.

但那是——我們正在添加新的細胞系，我們很快就能解決這個問題。

I think one perspective we are seeing (inaudible) also...

我認為我們看到的一種觀點（聽不清）也......

So these are mad growth numbers, mad.

所以這些都是瘋狂的增長數字，瘋狂。

Last year, and it's one thing to produce, but it's also another thing to install (inaudible) you need the infrastructure and the people to do that.

去年，生產是一回事，但安裝（聽不清）也是另一回事，你需要基礎設施和人員來做這件事。

So this massive scaling is very few companies grow at that rate.

因此，這種大規模的擴張很少有公司以這種速度增長。

Yes.

是的。

And one of the great challenges (inaudible) there need to be a lot more electricians.

巨大的挑戰之一（聽不清）需要更多的電工。

So we actually had an electrician training program.

所以我們實際上有一個電工培訓計劃。

We're going to actually have to fast-train new people who've never been electricians before.

實際上，我們將不得不對以前從未做過電工的新人進行快速培訓。

The electricians because otherwise, (inaudible) there's not a lot of electrician capacity in the United States and most places in the world to install Powerwalls.

電工因為否則，（聽不清）在美國和世界上大多數地方安裝 Powerwalls 的電工能力並不多。

And so we'd have to actually literally train electricians and like it takes like 2 years basically before somebody is certified to be an electrician.

因此，我們實際上必須對電工進行真正的培訓，並且基本上需要大約 2 年的時間才能有人獲得電工認證。

So it sounds like, okay, we [obviously] can't grow faster from the rates and number of electricians who can physically install Powerwalls.

所以聽起來，好吧，我們 [顯然] 不能從可以物理安裝 Powerwalls 的電工的速度和數量增長得更快。

That's like one of the limitations.

這就像限制之一。

And that PG&E project you mentioned is an incredibly exciting one.

你提到的那個 PG&E 項目是一個令人難以置信的令人興奮的項目。

It kind of is indicative of the growth rate.

它有點表明增長率。

It has (inaudible)

它有（聽不清）

Yes, can you elaborate on that?

是的，你能詳細說明一下嗎？

Saying (inaudible)

說（聽不清）

But I mean, it is over (inaudible) gigawatt hour.

但我的意思是，它已經超過（聽不清）千兆瓦時。

Really considered.

真的考慮過了。

Yes, gigawatt hour.

是的，千兆瓦時。

that's public, right?

那是公開的，對吧？

It is now.

就是現在。

And it has a -- and just to give you a sense, it took us 5 years of growing that business to get to a gigawatt hour cumulative deployed.

它有一個 - 只是為了給你一個感覺，我們花了 5 年的時間來發展這項業務，才能達到累計部署的千兆瓦時。

And someone who had said gigawatt hour is an impossible number for lithium-ion.

有人說千兆瓦時對於鋰離子來說是一個不可能的數字。

Like that's -- yes.

就像那樣——是的。

The car business is still much bigger as we sit here today, but the growth rate on energy is faster.

我們今天坐在這裡，汽車業務仍然大得多，但能源增長速度更快。

Yes, if you extrapolate energy growth rate -- well, obviously if you extrapolate anything (inaudible) your pretty soon becomes (inaudible) But long term, we would expect the energy business to catch up to the order of business in size.

是的，如果你推斷能源增長率——好吧，很明顯，如果你推斷出任何東西（聽不清），你很快就會變成（聽不清）但從長遠來看，我們預計能源業務的規模將趕上業務規模。

And then lastly, I'm really curious.

最後，我真的很好奇。

Elon, do you have any part of the business that shareholders should be asking or thinking more about?

埃隆，您是否有股東應該詢問或更多考慮的業務部分？

Or what do you wish would have been asked on the call?

或者你希望在電話中被問到什麼？

Good question.

好問題。

We're trying to anticipate -- actually we're trying to anticipate the questions that are on people's minds (inaudible) Autopilot (inaudible) Autopilot team here and much of the executive team of Tesla here, to try to be proactive in that regard.

我們正在嘗試預測——實際上，我們正在嘗試預測人們心中的問題（聽不清） Autopilot（聽不清） 這裡的 Autopilot 團隊和這裡的特斯拉的大部分執行團隊，試圖在這方面保持積極主動.

Was there anything (inaudible) I think we really covered a lot.

有什麼（聽不清）嗎？我認為我們確實涵蓋了很多內容。

So there is any -- yes.

所以有任何——是的。

Just my very last thing, the new fiscal engineering strategy of profit and cash flow and you say not to last in perpetuity sort of, sort of caught me by surprise personally.

只是我的最後一件事，利潤和現金流的新財政工程戰略，你說不要永遠持續下去，有點讓我個人感到意外。

And so I'm curious if there's any tradeoff to growth with that new strategy?

所以我很好奇這種新戰略是否會對增長進行權衡？

Or sort of what's the rationale behind the scenes.

或者某種幕後的基本原理是什麼。

Because this just seems like the biggest change in Tesla's financial engineering strategy since the IPO.

因為這似乎是特斯拉自 IPO 以來金融工程戰略的最大變化。

Yes, I mean, being cash flow positive and capital positive doesn't mean we're rolling in money.

是的，我的意思是，正現金流和正資本並不意味著我們在滾滾資金。

Like there's definitely going to be cases where we're just barely cash flow positive or barely profitable in some quarters in the future.

就像肯定會在某些情況下，我們在未來的某些季度幾乎沒有現金流為正或幾乎沒有盈利。

But I think we're -- and it's been a long time now, it's almost 15 years now.

但我認為我們 - 現在已經很長時間了，現在已經快 15 年了。

I think we're at a scale where the amount of time that it takes to actually scale up and do things is, there's a certain minimum -- like we're big enough where we actually can spend money efficiently to make things go faster.

我認為我們正處於這樣一個規模，即實際擴大規模和做事所需的時間有一定的最小值——就像我們已經足夠大，我們實際上可以有效地花錢讓事情進展得更快。

So we kind of hit scale with volume production of cars.

因此，我們通過批量生產汽車來達到規模。

And I think we can -- I think this is probably the right thing to do, is to be sort of essentially self-funding on a go-forward basis.

而且我認為我們可以 - 我認為這可能是正確的做法，基本上是在前進的基礎上自籌資金。

And apart from selective situations where there's some debt, temporary debt for construction of a Gigafactory in China or Europe or something like that, but apart from that, I think we -- like essentially, I don't think we're constraining growth in any significant way by adopting the strategy at this point.

除了存在一些債務、在中國或歐洲建設超級工廠的臨時債務或類似情況的選擇性情況，但除此之外，我認為我們 - 基本上，我認為我們不會限制經濟增長在這一點上採用該策略的任何重要方式。

It would have been true in times past, but I think it is not the case.

這在過去是正確的，但我認為情況並非如此。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

I think that's all (inaudible).

我想這就是全部（聽不清）。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Unfortunately, that's, I think, all the time we have today.

不幸的是，我認為，這就是我們今天所擁有的所有時間。

Appreciate all of your questions and looking forward to speak to you next quarter.

感謝您提出的所有問題，並期待在下個季度與您交談。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This does conclude the program.

這確實結束了程序。

You may all disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

你們都可以斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。