特斯拉 (TSLA) 2018 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Q2 2018 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference may be recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加特斯拉 2018 年第二季財務業績和問答網路直播電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議可能會被錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Viecha, you may begin.

現在，我想介紹今天會議的主持人、投資者關係高級總監 Martin Viecha 先生。維查先生，您可以開始。

Thank you very much, Sherry, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Tesla's second quarter 2018 Q&A webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk; J.B. Straubel; Deepak Ahuja; Robin Ren, our Head of Sales; Jerome Guillen, our VP of Trucks; and we also have our autopilot team with us here; Andrej Karpathy, Director of AI; Stuart Bowers, our VP of Engineering; and Pete Bannon, our Director of Silicon Engineering.

非常感謝，雪莉，大家午安。歡迎收聽特斯拉2018年第二季問答網路直播。今天與我一起參加的還有伊隆馬斯克、J.B. Straubel、Deepak Ahuja、我們的銷售主管 Robin Ren、我們的卡車副總裁 Jerome Guillen，還有我們的自動駕駛團隊、人工智慧總監 Andrej Karpathy、我們的工程副總裁 Stuart Bowers 和我們的矽工程總監 Pete Bannon。

Our Q2 results were announced at about 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time in the update letter we published at the same link as this webcast.

我們的第二季業績在下午 1 點左右公佈。我們在與該網絡廣播相同的連結中發布了更新信，其中提到了太平洋時間。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions)

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於多種風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。（操作員指示）

Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

在我們進入問答環節之前，伊隆先說了一些開場白。埃隆？

Hi, thank you for joining. First of all, I'd like to say, we're incredibly proud of the Tesla team for producing 7,000 Model 3, Model S and Model X vehicles in the last week of June. Those were amazing efforts. So honored to work with such great team to fuse that incredible result. It's like mind-blowing. We continued to achieve 5,000 Model 3s per week, 7,000 combined S, X and 3, multiple weeks in July, showing that we're able to do this on a sustained basis. And we expect to, in the absence of a force majeure or some very unexpected events, be able to achieve an average of 5,000 Model 3s or above for Q3, and 2,000 Model 3, Model S, X or above per week for Q3 as well. So essentially, 7,000 cars a week, plus for -- on average for Q3. So it's an amazing jump from only a year ago when we're producing 2,000 vehicles a week. It's really kind of a mind-blowing leap forward for a manufacturing company. So yes, it's incredible work by the team to do that. Many, many late nights, weekends, extreme amounts of effort and lots of smart ideas. It's amazing.

你好，謝謝你的加入。首先，我想說，我們為特斯拉團隊在 6 月的最後一周生產了 7,000 輛 Model 3、Model S 和 Model X 汽車感到無比自豪。這些都是令人驚嘆的努力。非常榮幸能與如此優秀的團隊合作並取得如此令人難以置信的成果。這真是令人難以置信。7 月份，我們連續數週實現 Model 3 週產量達 5,000 輛，Model S、X 和 3 車型合計產量達 7,000 輛，這表明我們能夠持續實現這一目標。我們預計，如果沒有不可抗力或一些非常意外的事件，第三季的 Model 3 產量將平均達到 5,000 輛或以上，Model 3、Model S、Model X 產量將平均達到 2,000 輛或以上。因此，基本上每周有 7,000 輛汽車，第三季的平均數量也增加了。因此，與僅僅一年前每週生產 2,000 輛汽車相比，這是一個驚人的飛躍。對於一家製造公司來說，這真是一次令人驚嘆的飛躍。是的，團隊做出了令人難以置信的工作。無數個夜晚、無數個週末，付出了極大的努力，也產生了許多聰明的想法。太神奇了。

The results you're seeing is that the Model 3 market share has surpassed all competitor premium, mid-sized sedans combined. So Model 3 market share is now a majority. July was a majority of all premium sedans. That trend is, we think, likely to continue. So it's not -- we do not think it will stop there. I have Robin Ren here, who's our worldwide Head of Sales, to talk about some of the interesting elements that we're seeing in terms of cars that people are trading in, the sales and demand trends. It's looking really, really positive.

您看到的結果是，Model 3 的市場份額已經超過了所有競爭對手的高端、中型轎車的總和。因此，Model 3 的市場份額現在佔大多數。七月是所有高級轎車銷量最多的月份。我們認為，這種趨勢可能會持續下去。所以我們認為它不會就此止步。我邀請到了我們的全球銷售主管 Robin Ren，他將與我們討論我們在人們交易的汽車、銷售和需求趨勢方面看到的一些有趣元素。看起來確實非常正面。

We're also getting great feedback from Model 3 from our customers, and we're now delivering the performance dual-motor and all-wheel drive versions. And the Model 3 reviews are outstanding, really couldn't ask for better reviews from some of the toughest critics in the world. And it's -- yes, and just the thing that we're recognizing is that the more Model 3s we deliver to the field, it's actually causing viral growth of our sales. So we deliver our Model 3 to somebody, they love it, they tell all their friends, they are actually -- really, our customers are our primary sales force. They love their car and take their friends for a drive, and that's the thing that fundamentally drives our sales.

我們還從客戶那裡獲得了有關 Model 3 的大量回饋，我們現在正在提供性能雙馬達和全輪驅動版本。Model 3 的評價非常出色，世界上一些最嚴厲的評論家真的無法給出更好的評價。是的，我們意識到，我們交付的 Model 3 越多，銷量就會越呈病毒式增長。因此，我們將 Model 3 交付給某些人，他們非常喜歡它，並告訴他們所有的朋友，他們實際上——真的，我們的客戶是我們的主要銷售團隊。他們熱愛自己的汽車並帶著朋友去兜風，這是推動我們銷售的根本原因。

But not everyone has Model 3, obviously, so we need to get the cars out there for test drives. As it is right now, not even all stores in North America have Model 3 for test drives. Of course, we prioritize getting cars to customers, but we're soon going to have Model 3s available for test drives in all stores, and both the performance version and the rear-wheel drive version. So we just want people who will not buy a car until they test drive it, just not unreasonable. Although on Sunday, when I delivered it, testing out like direct delivery, which I think is definitely the future, direct delivery from factory to customers or wherever they are. The guy here who bought it have never actually even sat in a Model 3. I'm like, wow, okay, Mr. Raul, how do you feel about the car now? You haven't even driven it. He's like, "I love it. It's amazing." So yes, it seems to be really well-received.

但顯然不是每個人都擁有 Model 3，所以我們需要將汽車拿到外面試駕。目前，甚至北美的所有商店都還沒有 Model 3 可供試駕。當然，我們優先考慮將汽車送到客戶手中，但我們很快就會在所有門市提供 Model 3 試駕，包括性能版和後輪驅動版。所以我們只是希望人們在試駕之前不會購買汽車，這只是合理的。雖然是在周日，當我送貨時，測試的是直接送貨，但我認為這絕對是未來，直接從工廠送貨到客戶或他們所在的任何地方。在這裡購買它的人實際上從未坐過 Model 3。我想，哇，好吧，勞爾先生，您現在對這輛車有什麼感覺？你甚至還沒有駕駛過它。他說，「我喜歡它。這真是太棒了。 「所以是的，它似乎真的很受歡迎。

Yes, so I'd approximate 7,000 cars a week. We believe we can be sustainably profitable from Q3 onwards. We'll try to raise that rate of Model 3 production steadily in the coming quarters and try to get to the 10,000 cars a week number as soon we can. What we've found, as we spent a lot of time debugging a wide range manufacturer issues, is that the potential for our existing lines to be able to produce far more cars is much greater than expected that by simplifying production lines, by speeding them up, by, in some cases, having things being done manually instead of automatic, and in other cases having be done automatic instead of manual, we've been able to achieve dramatic improvements to the output of existing lines, which means that our CapEx growing from 5,000 cars a week to 10,000 cars a week is a tiny fraction. CapEx going 5,000 to 10,000 is a tiny fraction to CapEx needing to grow from 0 to 5,000 Model 3s. This is, I think, very good news for capital efficiency of the company. And (inaudible) that's going from future mass market to vehicles that we produce.

是的，所以我估計每周有 7,000 輛汽車。我們相信從第三季開始我們可以持續獲利。我們將努力在未來幾季穩步提高 Model 3 的生產率，並儘快達到每週 10,000 輛的生產目標。我們花費大量時間調試各種製造商問題，發現我們現有生產線生產更多汽車的潛力遠大於預期，透過簡化生產線、加快生產線速度，在某些情況下以手動而非自動完成，而在其他情況下以自動而非手動完成，我們已經能夠顯著提高現有生產線的產量，這意味著我們的資本支出從每週 5,000 輛汽車增長到每週很小的一部分。5,000 到 10,000 的資本支出與 Model 3 從 0 增長到 5,000 所需的資本支出相比只是很小的一部分。我認為這對公司的資本效率來說是個非常好的消息。而且（聽不清楚）這將從未來的大眾市場轉向我們生產的汽車。

So -- and from an operating standpoint, from Q3 onwards, we're going to emphasize, our goal is to be profitable and cash flow positive for every quarter going forward. Now obviously, if there's a big recession or there's a severe force majeure event that interrupts the supply chain, that's not always possible. But we're confident that -- and provided the economy is roughly where it is today, reasonably good and there's not a big force majeure event that we -- I feel comfortable achieving the GAAP income positive and cash flow positive quarter every quarter from here on out. It's -- I'll just say, the major occasional cause is we'll pay back a big loan or something where there may be -- just because we paid back a big loan. But absent that, we'd be cash flow positive.

因此，從營運的角度來看，從第三季開始，我們要強調，我們的目標是在未來的每季實現獲利和現金流為正。顯然，如果出現嚴重的經濟衰退或嚴重的不可抗力事件，導致供應鏈中斷，那麼這並不總是可能的。但我們有信心——只要經濟狀況大致與現在一樣好，並且沒有發生重大不可抗力事件——我有信心從現在開始每個季度都實現 GAAP 收入為正，現金流為正。我只想說，主要偶然原因是我們要償還一筆大額貸款或類似的事情——僅僅因為我們還清了一筆大額貸款。但如果沒有這個，我們的現金流就會是正的。

So once again, I thank the team for their incredible work and our customers for their support. Without the great people we have at Tesla and the customers who put their faith in us by buying our product, we would not be here today. And yes, I've really never been more excited about the future of Tesla. We have a super exciting set of products to bring out in the future. And yes, I mean, sorry if I sound a little tired, I've been working like crazy in the body shop lately. But it's really going great. I'm super excited. Some good people. And a number of the executive team are here. If I could ask the 3 key leaders of the Tesla autopilot team to be here. So I'd like to go from here to see if autopilot leaders at Tesla could introduce themselves and say a bit about what you're working on, what you're excited about in the future. Sorry to put you guys in the spot. But I think we're making pretty radical advances in the quarter, software technology and the vision neural net, and then, very importantly, the Tesla self-driving technology that we've been working on for 3 years is finally coming to fruition. Pete Bannon is going to talk a lot about that. But it's a plug-in replacement for the existing computer, and an order of magnitude improvements in operations per second or frames per second is the way to think about it. And we can go say, they really are key to Tesla full autonomy. And (inaudible) to be really easy to replace. I'll let Pete talk about that. So we're going to start with like Stuart (inaudible)

因此，我再次感謝團隊的出色工作以及客戶的支持。如果沒有特斯拉的優秀員工和信任我們並購買我們產品的客戶，我們就不會擁有今天的成就。是的，我從未對特斯拉的未來如此興奮。未來我們將推出一系列非常令人興奮的產品。是的，我的意思是，如果我聽起來有點累，我很抱歉，我最近在車身修理廠瘋狂地工作。但一切確實進展順利。我超興奮。一些好人。許多執行團隊成員也在這裡。如果我可以請特斯拉自動駕駛團隊的三位關鍵領導人來這裡的話。所以我想從這裡開始，看看特斯拉的自動駕駛領導者是否可以介紹自己，並談談你們正在做的事情，以及你們對未來感到興奮的事情。很抱歉讓你們為難。但我認為我們在本季度取得了相當大的進步，軟體技術和視覺神經網絡，然後，非常重要的是，我們三年來一直致力於研究的特斯拉自動駕駛技術終於取得了成果。皮特·班農將會就此進行大量討論。但它是現有電腦的插件替代品，每秒操作數或每秒幀數的數量級提高是值得思考的。我們可以說，它們確實是特斯拉實現完全自動駕駛的關鍵。而且（聽不清楚）確實很容易更換。我讓皮特來談論這個。因此，我們將從像 Stuart (聽不清楚) 這樣的開始

Okay. Hi, I'm Stuart.

好的。你好，我是史都華。

You're going to have to talk a lot louder.

你得大聲一點說話。

Oh, yes, I'll just talk extra loud. So I'm Stuart. Yes, I joined team relatively recently. Incredibly excited kind of to see the foundation the team has built up until this point and building on top of that right now. So right now, a lot of the focus is on Autopilot V9, which is our sort of on-ramp to off-ramp solution that's going to automatically attempt to change lanes, understand what lane the car is in, understand the route the user wants to travel and take that route for the user and ultimately hand back control to that user in just kind of safe and controlled.

哦，是的，我會大聲說話。所以我是史都華。是的，我最近才加入團隊。看到團隊迄今為止所建立的基礎以及現在在此基礎上的進一步發展，我感到非常興奮。因此，現在，許多焦點都集中在 Autopilot V9 上，這是我們的一種從入口匝道到出口匝道的解決方案，它將自動嘗試變換車道，了解汽車所在的車道，了解用戶想要行駛的路線，並為用戶選擇該路線，最終以安全可控的方式將控制權交還給用戶。

It's a great navigation. So you're like, you have to get (inaudible) you say like -- you just -- by the way, a little tip for -- if you're driving Model S or X or 3, is if you just tap and hold -- tap the navigate button and just drag down, it will automatically navigate you to your home or, depending upon where you are. That's a pretty cool feature. Yes.

這是一個很棒的導航。所以你就像，你必須得到（聽不清楚）你說像 - 你只是 - 順便說一下，一個小提示 - 如果你駕駛的是 Model S 或 X 或 3，如果你只需點擊並按住 - 點擊導航按鈕並向下拖動，它就會自動導航到你的家，或者取決於你所在的位置。這是一個非常酷的功能。是的。

So yes, a lot of focus right now, we're also kind of digging out on some new safety features. I think, probably the thing that's just most exciting for me coming into the team is just seeing the foundations being built out over the last 2 years. I think, Andrej will talk a lot about some of the perception and vision work we've done there, including data engine. That has sort of allowed us to build on top of that very, very quickly. And I think we're all starting to see a new set of safety features that really only makes sense. In this world, we have extremely high understanding of tapping around the vehicle. So I think, when I sort of look at these coming to work, it's like, one, starting to introduce real aspects of kind of not just making the kind of reducing the drudgery or kind of the risk of commuting, but also really making the element fun. And the second is like dramatically improving safety in a way that you really can only do once you have this like very nuanced understanding of the world around you through perception.

所以是的，我們現在非常關注，我們也在挖掘一些新的安全功能。我認為，加入球隊後最讓我興奮的事情可能是看到球隊在過去兩年中建立的基礎。我認為，Andrej 會詳細談論我們在那裡所做的一些感知和視覺工作，包括資料引擎。這讓我們能夠非常非常快速地在此基礎上進行建置。我認為我們都開始看到一套真正有意義的新安全功能。在這個世界上，我們對車輛周圍的敲擊有著極高的理解。所以我認為，當我審視這些上班方式時，它就像是開始引入一些真正的方面，不僅可以減少通勤的苦差事或風險，還可以讓通勤變得有趣。第二，顯著提高安全性，而這只有透過感知對周圍世界有了非常細緻的了解後才能實現。

Hello, everyone. My name is Andrej Karpathy, and I'm the Director of AI here at Tesla. In particular, I lead the vision team, which is responsible for turning the video stream that we receive from all the cameras in the vehicle into an understanding of what is around us and around the vehicle. I work with neural networks for about 10 years, earned my -- mostly as PhD in Stanford, and as a research scientist in OpenAI, And what I'm really excited about is really building up this infrastructure for computer vision that underlies all the neural network training, trying to get those networks to work extremely well and make that really good foundation on top of which we build out all the features of the autopilot, like the features associated with the V9 where really that's going to come up and that Stuart has mentioned.

大家好。我叫 Andrej Karpathy，是特斯拉的人工智慧總監。具體來說，我領導視覺團隊，負責將從車輛所有攝影機接收到的視訊串流轉換為對我們周圍和車輛周圍情況的了解。我從事神經網路工作大約 10 年，主要在史丹佛大學獲得博士學位，並在 OpenAI 擔任研究科學家，我真正感到興奮的是真正構建這個計算機視覺基礎設施，它是所有神經網絡訓練的基礎，試圖讓這些網絡運行得非常好，並在此基礎上建立真正良好的基礎，在此基礎上我們構建了自動駕駛儀的所有功能，比如與 V9 的所有功能，正如 Stuart 提到的功能，正如 Stuart。

This is Pete Bannon. My team...

這是皮特·班農。我的團隊...

(inaudible) talk about the -- yes.

（聽不清楚）談論——是的。

My team is leading currently the hardware 3 development. The chips are up and working, and we have drop-in replacements for S, X and 3. All have been driven in the field. They support the current networks running today in the car at full frame rates, with a lot of idle cycles to spare. So I think we're all really excited about what Andrej and his team will be able to do with this hardware in the future. I think, like one little incidental story was I gave a talk to his team on hardware 3 last month, explaining how it worked and what it was capable of. And then, afterwards, one of the researchers came up to me, he was really excited and he said, "this is so exciting."

我的團隊目前正在領導硬體 3 的開發。晶片已啟動並運行，我們有 S、X 和 3 的直接替代品。所有晶片均已在現場運作。它們支援目前在汽車中以全幀速率運行的當前網絡，並保留了大量空閒週期。所以我認為我們都對 Andrej 和他的團隊未來能夠用這種硬體做什麼感到非常興奮。我想，就像一個小故事，我上個月就硬體 3 向他的團隊做了一次演講，解釋了它的工作原理和功能。然後，後來，一位研究人員走到我面前，他非常興奮，他說：“這太令人興奮了。”

So as a hardware designed, having excited software developers is the best. It's a really fun place to work because I do get to work with my 2 primary customers, Stuart and Andrej, and making them happy is pretty fun.

所以作為硬體設計，讓軟體開發人員興奮是最好的。這是一個非常有趣的工作場所，因為我確實可以與我的兩個主要客戶 Stuart 和 Andrej 一起工作，讓他們開心是非常有趣的。

Actually, Pete, maybe just to (inaudible) background, but not everyone does, so if you can just like -- Pete's a super normal guy, but if you could just, yes, talk about the stuff you've done before.

實際上，皮特，也許只是為了（聽不清楚）背景，但不是每個人都這樣做，所以如果你可以的話——皮特是一個非常正常的人，但如果你可以，是的，談談你以前做過的事情。

Let's see, I started working designing computers in Digital Equipment Corporation in 1984, back when they were refrigerator-sized, and have been working on smaller and smaller designs ever since. I was an Intel fellow, working on a team for a little while, then I was VP of Architecture and Verification at PA Semi, which was acquired by Apple. I led the design of the first ARM 32-bit processor that went into the iPhone 5. I built the team that designed the first ARM 64-bit processor in the world, which went into the iPhone 5S. And then, I worked on performance modeling and performance improvements at Apple for 8 years. And then, 2 years, I came to Tesla, and designed the neural network accelerator that's part of hardware 3 and helped architect the rest of the hardware 3 solution that will be in the car next year.

讓我們看看，我於 1984 年開始在數位設備公司從事電腦設計工作，當時的電腦只有冰箱大小，從那時起，我就一直致力於設計越來越小的電腦。我曾是英特爾的研究員，在一個團隊工作過一段時間，後來擔任 PA Semi 的架構和驗證副總裁，該公司後來被蘋果收購。我領導了第一款用於 iPhone 5 的 ARM 32 位元處理器的設計。我組建了設計世界上第一款用於 iPhone 5S 的 ARM 64 位元處理器的團隊。之後，我在蘋果從事了 8 年的性能建模和性能改進工作。然後，兩年後，我來到特斯拉，設計了硬體 3 的一部分神經網路加速器，並幫助設計了明年將在汽車上採用的硬體 3 解決方案的其餘部分。

Yes, maybe worth articulating some of the details, what the design principles that -- explain why, at Tesla, AI chip or AI computer essentially for the car is able to achieve order of magnitude better processing than anything else that exists.

是的，也許值得闡明一些細節，設計原則是什麼——解釋為什麼特斯拉的汽車人工智慧晶片或人工智慧電腦本質上能夠實現比現有任何其他產品更好數量級的處理能力。

Sure. So like 2 years ago, when I joined Tesla, we did a survey of all of the solutions that were out there for running neural networks, including GPUs. We went and talked to other people like at ARM that were building embedded solutions for running neural networks, and pretty much everywhere we looked, it's somebody had a hammer, whether it was a CPU or a GPU or whatever, they were adding something to accelerate neural networks, but nobody was doing a bottoms up design from scratch, which is what we elected to do. We had the benefit of having the insight into seeing what Tesla's neural networks looked like back then, and having projections to what they would look like into the future and we're able to leverage all of that knowledge and are willing to totally commit to that style of computing to previous design that's dramatically more efficient and has dramatically more performance than what you can buy today.

當然。大約兩年前，當我加入特斯拉時，我們對運行神經網路的所有解決方案（包括 GPU）進行了調查。我們去和其他人交談，例如 ARM，他們正在建立用於運行神經網路的嵌入式解決方案，我們看到的幾乎每個地方都有人拿著錘子，無論是 CPU 還是 GPU 還是其他什麼，他們都在添加一些東西來加速神經網絡，但沒有人從頭開始進行自下而上的設計，而這正是我們選擇做的。我們很榮幸能夠深入了解特斯拉當時的神經網絡，並預測它們未來的樣子，我們能夠利用所有這些知識，並願意完全致力於以前的設計中的計算方式，這種設計比現在購買的效率高得多，性能也好得多。

Well, thanks. Yes, I mean, essentially, the key is to be able to run the neural net at a fundamental -- at a bare metal level so that you're -- in the circuits, especially when you're the calculations in the circuits itself and not in some sort of emulation mode, which is how a GPU or CPU would operate. So you want to do basically a mass amount of localized major (inaudible) with the memory right there. So it's a huge number of very simple complications with the memory needed to straight adjust those complications right next to the circuits that are doing the matrix calculations. And the net effect is an order of magnitude improvement in the frames per second. Our current hardware, which I'm a big fan of NVIDIA, they're great stuff, but using a GPU, primarily, it's an emulation mode. So -- and you also get choked on the bus. So the transfer between the GPU and the CPU ends up being a strain to the system. So the net effect is we're able to, with the Tesla computer, we've been in like semi-stealth mode basically for the last 2 to 3 years on this, but I think it's probably time to let the cat out of the bag because that -- the cat's coming out of the bag anyway. So it's an incredible job by Pete, as seen. It's great. One of the most advanced computer for -- designed specifically for autonomous operation. And as a rough sort of figure, whereas the current NVIDIA-based hardware can do 200 frames a second, this is able to do over 2,000 frames a second, and with full redundancy and fail over. So it's an amazing design and we're looking to increase the size of our chip team and our investment in that as quickly as possible.

嗯，謝謝。是的，我的意思是，本質上，關鍵是能夠在基礎層面（在裸機層面）運行神經網絡，這樣你就可以在電路中，特別是當你在電路本身中進行計算時，而不是在某種模擬模式下，這是 GPU 或 CPU 的運作方式。因此，您基本上希望利用現有的記憶體來執行大量本地化的主要（聽不清楚）操作。因此，它包含大量非常簡單的複雜功能，需要記憶體來直接調整執行矩陣計算的電路旁邊的複雜功能。最終效果是每秒幀數將提高一個數量級。我們目前的硬件，我是 NVIDIA 的忠實粉絲，它們很棒，但使用 GPU，主要是一種模擬模式。所以——你也會在公車上被嗆到。因此，GPU 和 CPU 之間的傳輸最終會給系統帶來壓力。因此，最終的效果是我們能夠利用特斯拉計算機，基本上在過去的 2 到 3 年裡我們一直處於半隱身模式，但我認為現在可能是時候把這個秘密暴露出來了，因為無論如何，這個秘密都會暴露出來的。如你所見，這是皮特所做的一件令人難以置信的工作。這很棒。最先進的電腦之一—專為自主操作而設計。粗略地講，目前基於 NVIDIA 的硬體每秒可以處理 200 幀，而這款硬體每秒可以處理超過 2,000 幀，並且具有完全冗餘和故障轉移功能。這是一個令人驚嘆的設計，我們希望盡快擴大我們的晶片團隊規模並增加對此的投資。

I think we're at some of the best days the world, but I think we want to hold on it even more. And it's going to cost the same as our current hardware, and we anticipate that this -- they would actually just replace those replacements, which is why we made it easy to switch out the computer. And that's all that needs to be done. If we take out one computer and plug in the next, that's it. All the connectors are compatible, and an order of magnitude more processing. And you can run all cameras at full frame rate, full resolution with a complex neural net. So it's super kickass. Thank you for doing that.

我認為我們正處於世界上最美好的日子之一，但我認為我們更想堅持下去。而且它的成本與我們目前的硬體相同，我們預計這 - 他們實際上只會更換那些替代品，這就是為什麼我們可以輕鬆更換電腦。這就是所有需要做的事情。如果我們取出一台計算機並插入另一台計算機，那就完成了。所有連接器均相容，並且處理能力提高了一個數量級。您可以使用複雜的神經網路以全幀速率、全解析度運行所有攝影機。所以這真是太棒了。謝謝你這麼做。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Thanks for making that and thanks for making the software. And I'd like -- basically, I wanted to introduce 3 of the key people at Tesla that are doing this. I have huge respect and admiration for you guys. And it's because of what you and your team is doing that's how we're successful in this arena.

感謝您製作了這個，也感謝您製作了這個軟體。我想——基本上，我想介紹特斯拉從事這項工作的三位關鍵人物。我非常尊重和欽佩你們。正是因為您和您的團隊的努力，我們才得以在這個領域取得成功。

Thank you, Elon. Sherry. Let's go to the first question.

謝謝你，埃隆。雪莉酒。我們先來看第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的托尼·薩科納吉。

I have one question and one follow-up, please. First, just on gross margins, it looks like S and X gross margins were up maybe 500 basis points sequentially. And I'm wondering, maybe you can articulate what drove that? And then, more importantly, it looks like you're calling for Model 3 gross margins to go from about maybe 3% this quarter to 15% next quarter. That's about a $6,000 cost out per car. And I'm wondering if you can maybe help us understand what sort of the forces that drive that kind of improvement in a relatively short time frame?

我有一個問題和一個後續問題，請問。首先，僅從毛利率來看，S 和 X 的毛利率似乎比上季上漲了 500 個基點。我想知道，您能否解釋一下導致這現象的原因？然後，更重要的是，您似乎希望 Model 3 的毛利率從本季的 3% 左右上升到下個季度的 15%。每輛車的成本約為 6,000 美元。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解在相對較短的時間內推動這種改善的力量是什麼？

Yes, absolutely. First of all, I'd like to apologize for being impolite on the prior call. Honestly, I don't think this really excuse for bad manners, I was kind of violating my own rule in that regard. So I have some excuse -- there are reasons for it, I've not gotten enough sleep and have been working sort of 110-hour, 120-hour weeks. But nonetheless, I just want to excuse. My apologies for not being polite on the prior call.

是的，絕對是。首先，我要為之前通話中的不禮貌行為道歉。老實說，我不認為這真的是不禮貌的藉口，在這方面我有點違反了我自己的規則。所以我有一些藉口——這是有原因的，我沒有得到足夠的睡眠，而且每週工作 110 小時、120 小時。但儘管如此，我還是想道歉。我很抱歉在之前的通話中不夠禮貌。

I appreciate that. Thank you.

我很感激。謝謝。

And let's see, with respect to gross margin, I'll touch on that and then hand the rest to Deepak. But certainly, when spooling up the production line, there are tremendous amount of inefficiencies. There's a lot of hurry up and wait where some parts of the production line move well and one part doesn't. And we have associates waiting around with nothing to do. There are parts that we thought were right but then it turns out we've got -- they weren't right and then we send it back to the supplier. It's just like the whole sort of giant machine kind of -- you just need to have to lurch into a high pace. And there's a lot of lurching, which is very inefficient. So you end up having super high labor cost per car. And it just needs -- it takes time to sort of spool up this giant machine. It's a -- basically, a production system is like a giant cybernetic collector. And then, it moves as fast as its slowest part. So as we address those slow parts and as you improve efficiency, then gap -- gross margin, and so the profitability of the car just improves dramatically. That's sort of at a high level. Do you want to add to that?

讓我們看看，關於毛利率，我會談一下，然後將剩下的交給 Deepak。但可以肯定的是，在生產線上進行作業時，存在大量效率低下的情況。生產線上有些部分運作良好，但有些部分卻運作不順，因此需要大量時間等待。我們的同事們則無所事事地等待著。有些零件我們原本以為是正確的，但後來發現是不正確的，所以我們就把它退回給供應商。它就像一架巨型機器——你只需要以高速運轉即可。而且有很多顛簸，效率很低。因此，每輛車的人工成本最終都會非常高。它只是需要——需要時間來啟動這個巨大的機器。基本上，生產系統就像一個巨大的控制論收集器。然後，它的移動速度就跟最慢的部分一樣快。因此，當我們解決這些緩慢的部分並提高效率時，差距——毛利率，以及汽車的獲利能力就會大幅提高。這算是高水準了。您想補充一下嗎？

No, you described it extremely well. So just to sort of summarize, this was a major milestone for us in Q2 that the gross margin in Model 3 doing slightly positive. And we feel really good about the path ahead. And as Elon said, it's driven predominantly by manufacturing cost efficiencies. It's the labor hours that we use to produce each car becomes less, the initial ramp up costs that we have that are one-time as those inefficiencies disappear. Our fixed cost that are there, that gets leveraged to a higher volume. So all of that.

不，你描述得非常好。總結一下，Model 3 的毛利率略有上升，這是我們第二季的重要里程碑。我們對未來的道路充滿信心。正如埃隆所說，這主要受製造成本效率的驅動。我們生產每輛汽車所需的勞動時間變得更少，隨著這些低效率的消失，我們的初始提升成本是一次性的。我們的固定成本已經存在，可以利用它來提高產量。就是這樣。

Actually, a thing that can also happen is that if it turns out that, say, a production part was either designed wrong or both wrong or something wrong with it, then our (inaudible) on emergency basis, we have to go with low-volume tooling, which can be produced quickly. But a power producer of a low-volume tooling can easily be 10x more than a product produced of production tooling. And so just wanted -- you can have -- and sometimes, it's (inaudible) it's really not. If you got a machine and something happened out of a block, and it's either that or make a car, but the cost of using low volume (inaudible) of low-volume tooling can be really nutty.

實際上，還可能發生的情況是，如果發現生產部件設計有誤，或者兩者都有誤，或者本身有問題，那麼我們（聽不清楚）在緊急情況下，我們必須採用可以快速生產的小批量工具。但小批量工具的生產能力很容易就比大量生產工俱生產的產品強 10 倍。所以只是想要——你可以擁有——但有時，它（聽不清楚）實際上並非如此。如果你有一台機器，然後某個部件出了問題，那麼要么就生產汽車，要么就生產汽車，但是使用小批量（聽不清楚）小批量工具的成本可能真的很高。

And that journey just continues. As we stabilize and grow production from these levels, we achieve even more efficiencies. And Q3 also benefits with somewhat improved mix as we're going to sell more all-wheel drive and performance cars. And in the long run, as we continue to achieve those efficiencies on cost, our gross margins will continue to increase.

而這段旅程仍在繼續。隨著我們從這些水平穩定和增加產量，我們實現了更高的效率。由於我們將銷售更多的全輪驅動和高性能汽車，Q3 也將受益於產品組合的一定程度的改善。從長遠來看，隨著我們繼續實現成本效率，我們的毛利率將繼續增加。

Yes. I mean, I don't know if this trend will continue. We're trying to give you essentially all the information that at least we know, but we're seeing roughly half of our customers choose the dual-motor all-wheel drive option, which is actually quite a good positive surprise.

是的。我的意思是，我不知道這種趨勢是否會持續下去。我們試圖向您提供至少我們所知道的所有信息，但我們發現大約有一半的客戶選擇了雙電機全輪驅動選項，這實際上是一個相當不錯的驚喜。

Yes, it's been heartening to see that mix in terms of what customers want. And Robin can probably add more to that.

是的，看到顧客的需求如此多元化是令人欣慰的。羅賓可能還可以補充更多內容。

Yes. So starting from end of June, when we opened the configurator and invited the existing reservation orders, we saw tremendous excitement and response from our customers. As Deepak just mentioned, we actually see more orders for the all-wheel drive dual-motor car and performance cars combined than the rear-wheel drive cars.

是的。因此從 6 月底開始，當我們打開配置器並邀請現有的預訂訂單時，我們看到了客戶的極大興奮和回應。正如 Deepak 剛才提到的，我們實際上看到全輪驅動雙馬達車和性能車的訂單總量比後輪驅動車的訂單總量還要多。

Yes. It's -- we don't want to say this should be assumed to be a continued thing. It's just the thing we are seeing now.

是的。我們不想說這應該被認為是一件持續的事情。這正是我們現在所看到的。

Correct. And another thing I want to point out is that we are absolutely -- since we opened the configurator to the general public in early July, we are seeing an increased demand coming from people who do not currently hold a reservation. I think that's something that we found super exciting because these are the people who actually had no idea about Model 3 and they heard about Model 3 as available to order. Many of them requested test drives. And since early July, we have over 60,000 test drive requests in the U.S. alone. And these people come into our stores, do the test drive, and they become super excited and they decide to order a car. So we believe that the strong demand coming from, especially the non-reservation orders, is going to dramatically increase as we increase our test drive population. To give you an example, 3 weeks ago, we had only 8 stores having test drive cars, to Elon's point earlier. Now we have over 90 stores having test drive cars.

正確的。我想指出的另一件事是，自從我們在 7 月初向公眾開放配置器以來，我們看到目前沒有預訂的人的需求增加。我認為這是我們感到非常令人興奮的事情，因為這些人實際上對 Model 3 一無所知，但他們聽說 Model 3 可以訂購。其中許多人要求試駕。自 7 月初以來，光是在美國我們就收到了超過 60,000 次試駕請求。這些人來到我們的商店，進行試駕，他們變得非常興奮並決定訂購一輛車。因此，我們相信，隨著試駕人數的增加，強勁的需求，尤其是非預訂訂單的需求，將會大幅增加。舉個例子，三週前，我們只有 8 家商店提供試駕車，正如 Elon 之前所說。現在我們有超過90家門市提供試駕車服務。

It's worth mentioning, just an interesting little bits of information that the revenues was telling me -- and Robin, I would just congratulate you on doing a great job running worldwide sales (inaudible) and the also work on China, which is like really some next-level stuff. Our revenues raised in China, and has been -- along with Tom and (inaudible) as well, the team China has been instrumental in establishing the Tesla China factory and making sure that gets on right and have a great relationship with the government. So nice work in that regard. But it's really -- I think -- and so the things we want to expect, like what are the top 5 trade-in cars for Model 3?

值得一提的是，收入告訴我一些有趣的資訊——羅賓，我只想祝賀你在全球銷售（聽不清楚）方面做得非常出色，而且在中國也開展了工作，這確實是一些更高層次的工作。我們的收入來自中國，並且——與湯姆和（聽不清楚）一起，中國團隊在建立特斯拉中國工廠方面發揮了重要作用，確保工廠順利運作並與政府保持了良好的關係。從這方面來說，做得很好。但我認為，這確實是我們想要期待的事情，例如，可以以舊換新的 Model 3 的前 5 款車型有哪些？

Yes, this is very interesting. So we looked at what people who are buying Model 3 cars in the United States, what cars they are trading in. What we found is throughout this year, from January to July, the top 5 non-Tesla cars people are trading in to get into a Model 3, they are Toyota Prius, BMW 3 Series, Honda Accord, Honda Civic and Nissan Leaf.

是的，這很有趣。因此，我們調查了在美國購買 Model 3 汽車的人，以及他們以舊換新的汽車。我們發現，今年從 1 月到 7 月，人們用來換購 Model 3 的前 5 款非特斯拉汽車分別是豐田普銳斯、寶馬 3 系、本田雅閣、本田思域和日產聆風。

Really surprising.

確實很令人驚奇。

Yes, they are surprising because they are not the traditional premium sedans. They are actually -- many of them are mainstream midsized sedans.

是的，它們令人驚訝，因為它們不是傳統的高級轎車。它們實際上——其中許多都是主流中型轎車。

Right. And obviously, at this point, not yet selling at $35,000 a car. So it is promising for the future.

正確的。顯然，目前每輛車的售價還達不到 35,000 美元。所以未來還是很有希望的。

Our next question comes from Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的約瑟夫‧斯帕克 (Joseph Spak)。

Maybe we could tackle some of the commentary about the Gigafactory coming in, in China. When you first announced the Gigafactory 1, I think you said that was going to be about a $5 billion investment. And you mentioned some volume numbers associated with what you think is in China. So we do some extrapolation, looks like maybe 15 gigawatts of -- gigawatt hours of initial capacity. I'm wondering if you could also do a linear extrapolation on the cost you think you need for that factory.

也許我們可以解決一些有關在中國建立超級工廠的評論。當您第一次宣布 Gigafactory 1 時，我記得您說過這將是一項約 50 億美元的投資。您也提到了一些與您認為的中國相關的數量數字。因此我們做了一些推斷，看起來初始容量大概是 15 千兆瓦——千兆瓦時。我想知道您是否也可以對您認為工廠所需的成本進行線性推斷。

Sure. And I would also like to apologize for being impolite on the last call with you. That was not right. I hope you accept my apologies.

當然。我也想為上次與您通話時的不禮貌行為道歉。那是不對的。我希望你能接受我的道歉。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So with respect to Gigafactory, with CapEx, I think, we booked a tremendous amount with Gigafactory 1. And we're confident that we can do the Gigafactory in China for a lot less. I think it's probably closer to -- this is just a guess, but probably closer to $2 billion. And unless we be at a higher -- and that would be sort of the 250,000 vehicle per year rate. And so I think we could be a lot more efficient with CapEx. And that would include at least battery module and pack production, body shop, paint shop and general assembly. (inaudible) but that's a lot that (inaudible) for that. And sub production is starting this year, still figure out with respect to the Shanghai factory. So J.B. would you like to add to that?

因此，就超級工廠而言，我認為，我們在超級工廠 1 號上預留了巨額資本支出。我們有信心，在中國建造超級工廠的成本會低很多。我認為可能更接近——這只是一個猜測，但可能更接近 20 億美元。除非我們達到更高的水平 — — 也就是每年 25 萬輛汽車的水平。因此我認為我們可以更有效地利用資本支出。這至少包括電池模組和電池組生產、車身車間、噴漆車間和組裝。（聽不清楚）但那已經很多了（聽不清楚）。今年將開始分批生產，具體情況仍需根據上海工廠的情況來決定。那麼 J.B. 你想補充一下嗎？

Yes, I agree with all that. We found surprising number of ways to improve efficiency and speed and density as well at Gigafactory 1. And all those lessons will absolutely be shared with Gigafactory 3. The teams are already, of course, beginning to collaborate and start to figure out ways to do this more efficiently and with less CapEx than last time. Yes.

是的，我同意這一切。我們在 Gigafactory 1 上發現了令人驚訝的大量提高效率、速度和密度的方法。所有這些經驗絕對會與 Gigafactory 3 分享。當然，各個團隊已經開始合作，並開始尋找比上次更有效、資本支出更少的方法。是的。

Yes, I think we -- like less than half is like would be a good estimate. And maybe a lot less than half, but not more than half would be a fair estimate for CapEx to that 250,000 level. So just a tremendous amount of manufacturing, it's like (inaudible) a lot of neurons (inaudible) like next level. But on the plus side, we really know a lot about volume manufacturing at this point.

是的，我認為我們——少於一半就是一個很好的估計。也許遠低於一半，但不超過一半才是資本支出達到 25 萬水準的合理估計。因此，大量的製造就像（聽不清楚）很多神經元（聽不清楚）就像下一級一樣。但從好的方面來看，我們目前確實對大量生產有了很大的了解。

I mean, there are so many specific examples. But even in just recent weeks and months, we found some certain areas of production that have been very capital-intensive that we've been able to speed up with almost no additional CapEx by maybe 20%, even 25% or 30% just by...

我的意思是，有很多具體的例子。但就在最近幾週和幾個月裡，我們發現某些特定的生產領域非常資本密集，我們幾乎不需要額外的資本支出就能將其生產速度提高 20%，甚至 25% 或 30%......

Yes, including the cell production.

是的，包括電池生產。

Yes, just by challenging some of the initial assumptions, the specifications, tweaking the control and software.

是的，只需挑戰一些最初的假設、規格，調整控制和軟體。

Yes, what really matters, what actually doesn't matter, things you think matter. And some of it actually ends up not being -- not matter at all.

是的，什麼才是真正重要的，什麼其實並不重要，以及你認為重要的事。而實際上其中一些最終變得根本不重要。

And that's with basically 0 CapEx. So as you start to add very tactical strategic CapEx to the existing lines, that's how we can get to something close to double or beyond with a really, really small increment.

而且這基本上是 0 資本支出。因此，當您開始為現有生產線添加非常具有戰術性的策略資本支出時，我們就可以以非常非常小的增量來實現接近兩倍甚至更高的目標。

Yes. One of the key to the success on the Model 3 production was the (inaudible) which is led by Jerome. Jerome also was key and (inaudible) so Zone 1, 2 order lines, which was critical because (inaudible) failure and especially in Zone 1 -- Zone 2 of (inaudible) module production (inaudible) that was (inaudible) is amazing. I feel like (inaudible) our tent. But by the way, our tent is amazing. And this is not like (inaudible) like some sort of you buy at REI or something like that, you go camping. This is a tent that is actually commonly used as a permanent structure. It's a giant thing that is very commonly used as a permanent structure. And the -- and we just had to come up with a creative solution because GA 3 was not going to be able to make the rate. And so we have to come up with some ideas and perhaps provide (inaudible) a little transparent. It's interesting, if you want to...

是的。Model 3 生產成功的關鍵之一是 Jerome 領導的 (聽不清楚)。傑羅姆也是關鍵人物，（聽不清楚）所以 1 區、2 區訂單線至關重要，因為（聽不清楚）故障，特別是在 1 區 - 2 區（聽不清楚）模組生產（聽不清楚）那是（聽不清楚）令人驚訝的。我感覺（聽不清楚）我們的帳篷。但順便說一句，我們的帳篷很棒。這不像（聽不清楚）你在 REI 或類似的地方買的東西，你去露營。這是一種實際上通常用作永久性建築的帳篷。它是一種巨大的物體，通常用作永久性結構。而且——我們必須想出一個有創意的解決方案，因為 GA 3 無法達到這個速度。因此，我們必須提出一些想法，或許提供（聽不清楚）一點透明度。這很有趣，如果你想...

Yes. We -- it was the [Zen] project, actually. So not only was it producing good results, but it was a lot of people contributed from different (inaudible) groups and had a lot of fun in the process. We set out...

是的。我們——實際上，它是[Zen]項目。因此，它不僅產生了良好的結果，而且來自不同（聽不清楚）群體的許多人也做出了貢獻，並在這個過程中獲得了很多樂趣。我們出發了...

(inaudible) boulevard. It's like -- you really -- there's like -- so it's like those are really fast flowing (inaudible)

（聽不清楚）林蔭大道。就像——你真的——就像——所以就像那些真的流動得很快（聽不清楚）

We just wanted to create an assembly line that would be very easy and very straightforward. So it's a straight line. Very simple. Car enters at one point and it's finished at the other end. Very simple access on all sides, very simple tooling that we reused for most of -- actually, nearly all of it is systems and tools that we discarded from previous S and X all for Model 3.

我們只是想創建一條非常簡單、非常直接的組裝線。所以它是一條直線。非常簡單。汽車從一處進入，並在另一端結束行駛。各個側面的通道都非常簡單，我們在大部分地方重複使用了非常簡單的工具——實際上，幾乎所有的系統和工具都是我們從先前的 S 和 X 中丟棄的，都用於 Model 3。

Especially Model 3. Like it was probably like we got 2 weeks to solve this problem, which is like quite the impossible. So we actually didn't have time to order new equipment because it would have taken too long to arrive. So we took the conveyors that we discarded from the GA 3 line, which didn't work. Or it was way too complex to actually move our products.

尤其是 Model 3。我們可能有兩週的時間來解決這個問題，這幾乎是不可能的。因此我們實際上沒有時間訂購新設備，因為到貨時間太長。因此，我們採用了從 GA 3 生產線上丟棄的傳送帶，但它不起作用。或者說，實際上運送我們的產品實在太複雜了。

And we simplified, repurposed them, make them sturdy for what was needed and...

我們簡化了它們，重新調整了它們的用途，使它們更加堅固，以滿足需要…

Well, Like a really cool idea was putting them on the 1% grade. So it's like, technically, the conveyors for parts delivery to GA 3 were not rated to be able to move something as heavy as a car. So we made it downhill and on a 1% downward grade, the car runs at top, so then you can actually overcome the...

嗯，一個非常酷的想法就是把它們放在 1% 的等級上。因此，從技術上講，向 GA 3 運送零件的傳送帶無法移動像汽車這樣重的東西。所以我們下坡，在 1% 的下坡上，汽車在頂部行駛，這樣你實際上就可以克服...

Gravity helps.

重力有幫助。

Yes, gravity. So if you basically -- with Newton on your side, you can accomplish a lot.

是的，重力。所以，如果你基本上——有牛頓在你身邊，你就能完成很多事情。

Yes, it's pushing the car.

是的，它正在推車。

Exactly.

確切地。

No. And something that I'm particularly happy about is that we installed the quality team at the end of the line, and we wanted to have at least as high standards on this new likeness and the other one. And because it is so simple and straightforward, they can run very quickly to any point in the line if there's any potential concern and address it very quickly. There is no maze to move around or identify where something happened. And the quality of the cars that come out of this structure is at least as good as -- and we make all the performance cars on this particular line and they seem to be doing quite well. So this is a very pleasant surprise. And the associates seems to be very happy and engaged in that particular area. So this may be a model of how we may want to start general assembly for future vehicles, at least start. And we can always add further automation and complexity.

不。讓我特別高興的是，我們在生產線末端設立了品質團隊，我們希望對這個新肖像和另一個肖像至少有同樣高的標準。而且由於它非常簡單直接，如果有任何潛在問題，他們可以非常快速地跑到生產線上的任何地方並迅速解決問題。沒有迷宮可以走動或辨識事情發生的地點。透過這種結構生產的汽車的品質至少和我們在這條特定生產線上生產的所有高性能汽車一樣好，而且它們的表現似乎相當不錯。這是一個非常令人愉快的驚喜。同事們似乎對這個特定領域非常滿意並且非常投入。因此，這可能是我們希望開始未來車輛組裝的一個模型，至少是開始。而且我們總是可以進一步增加自動化和複雜性。

And so (inaudible) is that this actually has fully considered fewer labor hours per car than like the GA 3 system. And just to elaborate on what I was saying, when we have paused delivery to GA 4, the truck looked like they just backstopped to the side of the line. It was like a door in the tent. And then that's used to unload parts from suppliers directly to where they're needed on the line. So there's no intermediate (inaudible) whereas for GA 3, they unload it, they put it in a warehouse, then they're repackaged for the warehouse into these turrets which just actually -- so we actually have 220 people, something like that across all shifts, whose only job it was, was to repackage parts from the boxes from suppliers to the boxes that -- to these turrets that go into lifters that go up into GA 3. And especially all they do is move things from one box to another box, and we don't need that at all on GA 4.

因此（聽不清楚）實際上已經充分考慮了比 GA 3 系統更少的每輛車的工時。為了詳細說明我所說的內容，當我們暫停向 GA 4 發貨時，卡車看起來就像停在了生產線的一側。它就像帳篷裡的一扇門。然後將其從供應商直接卸載到生產線上所需的地方。因此沒有中間環節（聽不清楚），而對於 GA 3，他們卸貨後將其放入倉庫，然後重新包裝，放入這些轉塔中，實際上——所以我們實際上有 220 個人，所有班次都是這樣，他們唯一的工作就是將零件從供應商的箱子重新包裝到箱子中——放入這些轉塔中，然後放入升降機，再進入 GA 3。特別是他們所做的就是將東西從一個箱子移動到另一個箱子，而在 GA 4 上我們根本不需要這樣做。

All gone.

一切都消失了。

All gone, yes. And the stress of sort of 24/7 robotics, technicians that are constantly trying to make the machines have uptime, that's very expensive. And so when we think about not having some to maintain all these robotic systems, that's a big cost savings as well. And now we're going to gradually be adding simple automation into GA 4 to make it easier to build a car and that are sort of labor saving devices. It's fundamental. It's already at an efficiency level greater than GA 3, which is pretty impressive.

是的，一切都消失了。而且，全天候機器人技術的壓力，以及技術人員不斷努力使機器正常運作的壓力，是非常昂貴的。因此，當我們想到不需要維護所有這些機器人系統時，這也是一個很大的成本節省。現在我們將逐步在 GA 4 中添加簡單的自動化功能，以便更輕鬆地製造汽車並節省勞動力。這是根本。它的效率水準已經高於 GA 3，這相當令人印象深刻。

Our next question comes from James Albertine with Consumer Edge.

我們的下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge 的 James Albertine。

Appreciate all the color you've been providing. Wanted to dig a little bit deeper though in terms of capital spending plans. Considering your growth you've identified in China with the Model Y, we believe also in the EU, it's been discussed about a factory there. How do you plan to fund all of this growth without going back to the capital markets to raise funds? And can you verify for us whether or not there is a notice from a regulator that would prevent you from raising outside capital?

感謝您提供的所有顏色。但希望在資本支出計畫方面進行更深入的挖掘。考慮到您在中國透過 Model Y 實現的成長，我們相信在歐盟也已經討論了在那裡建立工廠的事宜。您打算如何為所有這些成長提供資金，而無需回到資本市場籌集資金？您能否為我們核實一下，是否有監管機構的通知禁止您籌集外部資金？

We do not -- we'll not be raising any equity at any point, at least that's -- I have no expectation of doing so, do not plan to do so. For China, I think, we -- our default plan would be to use essentially a loan from local banks in China and fund the Gigafactory in Shanghai with local debt essentially. And there are so many -- we could raise money, but I think we don't need to, and we -- yes, I think it's better to just not to.

我們不會——我們不會隨時籌集任何股權，至少——我沒有這樣做的期望，也不打算這樣做。對於中國來說，我認為，我們的預設計劃是基本上使用來自中國當地銀行的貸款，並透過地方債務為上海的超級工廠提供資金。而且有很多——我們可以籌集資金，但我認為我們不需要，而且我們——是的，我認為最好不要這樣做。

Yes, we're executing on an operating plan that keeps us sufficiently self-funded, despite our CapEx needs and our debts maturing and still keep a very healthy balance on our balance sheet.

是的，我們正在執行一項營運計劃，儘管我們有資本支出需求並且債務即將到期，但該計劃仍能讓我們擁有足夠的自籌資金，並且我們的資產負債表仍然保持非常健康的平衡。

Yes. We're -- our default plan is we pay -- starting paying off our debts. I don't mean refi-ing another (inaudible). For example, this convert that's coming due soon, a couple hundred million, $900 million (inaudible) or something like that. We expect to pay that off with internally generated cash flow.

是的。我們的預設計劃是開始償還債務。我的意思不是要再提煉另一個（聽不清楚）。例如，即將到期的這筆轉換貸款有幾億美元，9 億美元（聽不清楚）或類似的金額。我們希望透過內部產生的現金流來償還這筆款項。

And still be -- still have a healthy cash balance.

並且仍然擁有健康的現金餘額。

Yes.

是的。

And to answer the other question, there is no such notice from a regulator?

回答另一個問題，監管機構沒有發布這樣的通知嗎？

Yes. I'm not sure it's (inaudible) but there's no such notice from a regulator.

是的。我不確定（聽不清楚），但監管機構沒有發布這樣的通知。

Our next question comes from George Galliers with Evercore. Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 George Galliers。我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Hey. everybody. First is, there's so much love and respect for colleagues and Wall Street analysts on this call. It's almost -- it is lifting my spirits. What can I say? I got 2 questions. The first is for the Autopilot team. There's an argument that a fully autonomous car is essentially like a terminator that is programmed to save lives in highly complex terrestrial environments. And that this same technology, with a few tweaks, have some pretty obvious military capability. Do you see any risk that U.S. companies will ultimately not be allowed to operate weapons grade AI-based technology in a market like China and vice versa?

嘿。大家。首先，這次電話會議表達了對同事和華爾街分析師的滿滿的愛與尊重。這幾乎——它讓我精神振奮。我能說什麼？我有兩個問題。第一個是針對自動駕駛團隊的。有一種觀點認為，全自動駕駛汽車本質上就像一個終結者，被編程為在高度複雜的陸地環境中拯救生命。並且，這項技術經過一些調整，就具有相當明顯的軍事能力。您是否認為美國公司最終將不被允許在中國這樣的市場運作武器級人工智慧技術，反之亦然？

Well, this has never come up. I wouldn't call it weapons grade. It's just like the car's trying to drive. And if anything, the autonomous cars will be pretty easy to bully because they'll be optimizing so much for avoiding collision. So that'll be more of a challenge than anything else, is as soon as somebody sees those cars are autonomous, they know they can like cut them off and the car's going to be doing what it can to avoid a collision. So it's like that'll actually be probably a bigger challenge than anything else. But we've not encountered anything of the nature of what you're saying.

嗯，這個問題從來沒有發生過。我不會稱之為武器級。就像汽車試圖行駛一樣。而且，自動駕駛汽車將很容易受到欺負，因為它們會進行大量優化以避免碰撞。因此，這將是一個比其他任何事情都更具挑戰性的事件，一旦有人看到這些汽車是自動駕駛的，他們就知道他們可以將其攔截，並且汽車將盡其所能避免碰撞。因此這實際上可能比其他任何事情都更具挑戰性。但我們並沒有遇到您所說的那種情況。

So you don't see autonomous cars as a potential germination or training grounds for things that would have a national security or military interest. Okay. Maybe a follow-up, Elon, and my last question. Who do you think would be a more formidable competitor over time, BMW or Amazon?

因此，您不會將自動駕駛汽車視為涉及國家安全或軍事利益的潛在萌芽或訓練場。好的。也許是後續問題，伊隆，這是我的最後一個問題。您認為隨著時間的推移，誰會成為更強大的競爭對手，BMW還是亞馬遜？

For Tesla?

為了特斯拉？

For Tesla.

對於特斯拉來說。

No, I don't think either of them are likely to be -- as far as I know, I mean, I'd be pretty shocked if Amazon got into the car business, but I think BMW has great engineering. They're -- and it's good to see that they're making some investments in electrification. Hopefully, they do more of that. And I'm not sure where they stand on autonomy. That's not on our radar from an autonomy standpoint.

不，我認為他們兩個都不太可能——據我所知，我的意思是，如果亞馬遜進入汽車行業我會非常震驚，但我認為寶馬擁有出色的工程技術。很高興看到他們在電氣化方面進行了一些投資。希望他們能做得更多。我不確定他們在自治問題上的立場是什麼。從自主性角度來看，這並不在我們的考慮範圍內。

Our next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

_

_

So I wanted to make sure we understand well how you stop burning cash going forward in coming quarters. And my understanding is that an important moving part here probably is -- probably the most important one, is a positive impact of the ramp of the Model 3 on your working capital. And so I did some quick math on the quarter and I see your payables increased by $430 million while your receivable didn't move much, which makes sense because you get paid on the spot and you pay your suppliers only on a 60-day notice or more. And so if I divide that by the number of incremental cars you've been producing in the quarter, I get to about $23,000 per car. And of course, my question is whether this is a good way to think about it, which means that going forward, when you move into Q3 and Q4, every additional car, every additional Model 3 you're going to produce, you're going to bump up payables by something in the region of $20,000, and that's going to be the main driver getting you to breakeven and to stop burning cash.

因此，我想確保我們充分了解如何在未來幾季停止燒錢。我的理解是，這裡的一個重要的推動因素可能是——可能是最重要的一個因素，就是 Model 3 的產量提升對你的營運資金的正面影響。因此，我對本季度的情況做了一些快速計算，發現您的應付款項增加了 4.3 億美元，而應收款項並沒有太大變化，這是有道理的，因為您是當場獲得付款，並且您只需提前 60 天或更長時間通知供應商即可付款。因此，如果我用這個價格除以本季生產的增量汽車數量，我會得到每輛車約 23,000 美元。當然，我的問題是，這是否是一個好的思考方式，這意味著，當你進入第三季度和第四季度時，每生產一輛額外的汽車，每生產一輛額外的 Model 3，你的應付款項就會增加大約 20,000 美元，這將成為讓你實現收支平衡和停止燒錢的主要驅動力。

Yes, Deepak here. I mean, there are many factors. Clearly, the working capital benefit of the difference in the payable terms versus collecting cash is one of them. But also, its our gross margin improvement on the business, it's the higher volumes and the higher gross margin resulting in higher gross profit. I'm stating the obvious there on Model 3. Our S and X volumes are increasing, too, in the second half. That's going to help us significantly. And all of our other businesses are improving their profitability while our OpEx is staying essentially flat, so massive leverage in the business. So when you combine all of that, that's what is giving us the cash flow from operations to fund our -- the rest of our business and grow cash. I'm stating the obvious, but just I'm summarizing the whole point, yes.

是的，我是 Deepak。我的意思是，有很多因素。顯然，付款條件與收取現金之間的差異所帶來的營運資本效益就是其中之一。但同時，這也是我們業務毛利率的提高，更高的銷量和更高的毛利率帶來了更高的毛利。我在 Model 3 上說的話是顯而易見的事。下半年我們的 S 和 X 銷售也在增加。這將對我們有很大幫助。我們所有其他業務的獲利能力都在提高，而我們的營運支出基本上保持不變，因此業務槓桿率很高。因此，當你把所有這些結合起來時，我們就可以從營運中獲得現金流，為我們的其餘業務提供資金並增加現金。我說的是顯而易見的事情，但我只是總結了整個要點，是的。

And in terms of other (inaudible)? Sorry, go ahead.

在其他方面（聽不清楚）？抱歉，請繼續。

Sorry, what's your question?

抱歉，您的問題是什麼？

Can you repeat the follow-up?

您能重複後續內容嗎？

My follow-up was on a -- in terms of order of magnitude, does like $20,000 per car of payables boost over a 60-day period? Does that sound like something that make sense or am I missing other moving parts?

我的後續問題是——就數量級而言，每輛車的應付款項在 60 天內是否會增加 20,000 美元？這聽起來有道理嗎？還是我忽略了其他活動部分？

That's a rough order of magnitude, correct. Yes.

這是一個粗略的數量級，正確。是的。

Our next question comes from Romit Shah with Nomura Instinet.

我們的下一個問題來自野村證券的 Romit Shah。

I guess my question's for the Autopilot team. We've been looking forward to this fully autonomous coast-to-coast drive. And, Elon, I think you sort of said on previous calls, if I can paraphrase, that the team's been focused on developing a full self-driving suite that would work basically on all different kinds of road conditions. And I'm just curious, what's holding back that capability today to go coast-to-coast? And are we closer now that you've strengthened the compute technology?

我想我的問題是關於自動駕駛團隊的。我們一直期待著這次完全自動駕駛的橫跨東西海岸的駕駛。伊隆，我想您在之前的電話會議中說過，如果我可以解釋的話，團隊一直致力於開發一套完整的自動駕駛套件，基本上可以在各種不同的道路條件下運行。我只是好奇，是什麼阻礙了今天橫跨東西海岸的能力？現在您已經加強了計算技術，我們是否更接近目標了？

Yes, the -- we can do a coast-to-coast drive especially if we pick a specific route and then write code to really make that route work. We could do a coast-to-coast route drive, but that would be kind of gaming the system, and I think it's really important for the Autopilot team to be focused on fundamental safety of the existing features. So that's -- the focus is really massively on safety of existing features. And there's a dev and (inaudible) that can do things like recognize traffic lights and stop signs and make hard right turns and that kind of thing. But it's not the safety level that [concerts okay for release]. So but -- yes, because it really -- you [work many lines] for liability for anything that's research to end customers. So I don't want to take team off that until so we feel like we've really -- kind of really (inaudible) for the core functionality. And, Stuart, do you want to add to that?

是的，我們可以進行橫跨東西海岸的駕駛，特別是如果我們選擇一條特定的路線，然後編寫程式碼來真正使該路線正常運行。我們可以進行橫跨美國東海岸的路線駕駛，但這有點像在玩弄系統，我認為自動駕駛團隊真正需要專注於現有功能的基本安全。所以——重點確實集中在現有功能的安全性。並且有一個開發人員和（聽不清楚）可以做一些事情，例如識別交通號誌和停車標誌以及進行急右轉彎等。但這並不是說 [音樂會可以發行] 的安全等級。所以，但是 — — 是的，因為它確實 — — 你 [在多條線路上] 為任何針對最終客戶的研究承擔責任。因此，我不想讓團隊放棄這個目標，直到我們覺得我們真的——真的（聽不清楚）實現了核心功能。斯圖爾特，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. I mean, I think, the big thing I'd say is that when you're on, to reiterate (inaudible), there's no question you can kind of build a demo around the stuff. The challenge right now for the team is just increasing the safety and utility of Autopilot to over a quarter million cars we have today and pushing more out after that. So I think, when we look kind of forward to what the next probably 6 to 12 months look like, it's taking those same kind of features that we've been working on, probably deploying them in the form of active safety features. Like that's like a thing we can do already, is to understand like use this rich understanding and environment to actually try to keep you safer, to have a beep or break. And then also, of course, like one huge advantage that we have is we can understand what humans actually did in these vehicles and test our software to make sure that we would have made decisions that were similar, if not safer. So that's going to be a huge part of what we do over the next probably 2 quarters.

是的。我的意思是，我想說的最重要的一點是，當你在線上時，重申一下（聽不清楚），毫無疑問你可以圍繞這些東西建立一個演示。目前團隊面臨的挑戰是提高 Autopilot 的安全性和實用性，使其覆蓋目前超過 25 萬輛汽車，並在此之後推廣到更多汽車。因此我認為，當我們展望未來 6 到 12 個月的情況時，我們會採用我們一直在研究的相同功能，並可能以主動安全功能的形式部署它們。就像我們已經可以做的事情一樣，就是理解如何使用這種豐富的理解和環境來真正嘗試確保你的安全，發出嗶嗶聲或休息一下。當然，我們還有一個巨大的優勢，那就是我們可以了解人類在這些車輛中實際做了什麼，並測試我們的軟體，以確保我們能夠做出類似的、甚至更安全的決定。所以這將是我們未來兩季工作的重頭戲。

Yes. I mean, that said, we might be able to pull off coast-to-coast demo before the end of the year if we -- but really, like right now, if the Super has now focused on the version 9 software release, which has got a number of really cool things in it, and we're hoping to get that out to a [reaccess] program at the -- in about 4 weeks and then broadly in September. That's the hardcore focus right now, and that'll certainly include some significant advancements in autonomy. And then once that's out and stable, I think that could be a good time to work on the coast-to-coast driving.

是的。我的意思是，如果我們能夠在今年年底之前完成橫跨東西海岸的演示，那麼我們可能能夠完成橫跨東西海岸的演示——但實際上，就像現在一樣，如果 Super 現在專注於版本 9 軟體的發布，其中有很多非常酷的東西，我們希望在大約 4 週內，然後大致在 9 月份，將其發佈到 [重新訪問] 程式中。這是目前的核心焦點，而且肯定包括自主性方面的一些重大進展。一旦一切順利並穩定下來，我認為這可能是進行橫跨海岸駕駛的好時機。

I don't know if you guys have shared what attach rates are for Autopilot. I'm just, as my follow-up, I guess I'm curious what you can do to increase the number of cars that have that functionality. It would seem like some of the effects on [outer margins] and cash flows could be pretty positive.

我不知道你們是否分享過自動駕駛儀的附加率。我只是，作為我的後續行動，我很好奇你能做些什麼來增加具有該功能的汽車數量。這似乎對[外部利潤]和現金流的一些影響可能非常積極。

Yes, I think it's extremely powerful once people are comfortable using the technology and see just how much utility it brings. I think that is a very significant potential for margin gain in the future. But it's contingent on that functionality really making a difference. I think we will really start to see some of the breakthrough stuff in about a month or so.

是的，我認為一旦人們習慣使用這項技術並看到它帶來多大的實用性，它就會變得非常強大。我認為這對於未來的利潤成長具有非常大的潛力。但這取決於該功能是否真的能帶來改變。我認為大約一個月左右我們就會真正開始看到一些突破性成果。

Our next question comes from John Murphy with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰·墨菲。

Just a first question, is it fair to assume the GA4 in the tent is now essentially permanent? And if so, is this potentially a new model for capacity and capacity additions it much -- might be much more capital efficient over time?

第一個問題，是否可以假設帳篷中的 GA4 現在基本上是永久性的？如果是這樣，這是否可能成為一種新的產能和產能增加模式，而隨著時間的推移，它的資本效率可能會更高？

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

It's permanent for now.

目前它是永久的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, unless we come -- until we come up with something different or better. But personally, I think it's a good model to start assembly of any product. There's a lot of flexibility and then we can build and iterate over it, yes.

是的，除非我們提出——除非我們想出不同或更好的辦法。但就我個人而言，我認為它是開始組裝任何產品的良好模型。是的，它具有很大的靈活性，我們可以對其進行建置和迭代。

Like necessity is the mother of invention and when you have to do something quickly, then it just -- you just don't have time to spend a lot of capital. So it forces you to be capital efficient.

就像需要是發明之母，當你必須快速完成某件事時，你就沒有時間投入大量資金。所以它迫使你提高資本效率。

Yes, it's taught us a lot of lessons on how to be capital efficient in the general assembly. And so in that sense, those lessons will carry forward, John.

是的，它給我們上了很多關於如何在大會上提高資本效率的課程。因此從這個意義上來說，這些教訓將會被傳承下去，約翰。

Yes. I think still, by and large, what we will be aiming for is still frame buildings. To be clear, stuff like -- we're probably going to just (inaudible) picking up tents everywhere.

是的。我認為，總的來說，我們的目標仍然是框架建築。要明確說明的是，諸如──我們可能只是（聽不清楚）到處搭帳篷。

I mean, the tent itself might be a little bit of a distraction from actually the focus of what's happening inside.

我的意思是，帳篷本身可能會稍微分散人們對帳篷內發生的事情的注意力。

Yes, exactly.

是的，確實如此。

And that's a similar methodology that we kind of reverted back to and then moved forward from in the module, where we simplified and then did a very, very linear intuitive process that was a bit more manual and they have automated and scaled that up as we understand it and get good control of it. And I think that's a lesson that we're taking to heart broadly across other things that we're going to do in the future, and it's an efficient way to scale up.

這是一種類似的方法，我們在模組中恢復過來然後向前推進，我們簡化了，然後做了一個非常非常線性的直觀過程，這個過程有點手動，隨著我們理解它並很好地控制它，他們已經實現了自動化和規模化。我認為這是我們在未來要做的其他事情中廣泛銘記於心的一個教訓，這是一種有效的擴大規模的方法。

I mean, you've got replication of that simplicity why you think Shanghai could be that much less costly and that the Model Y capacity might be that much less costly to add.

我的意思是，你已經複製了這種簡單性，為什麼你認為上海的成本可能會低得多，增加 Model Y 產能的成本可能會低得多。

Yes, Model Y was sort of separate thing, but it's definitely one of the elements that convinced us that we can scale up quickly and at low CapEx in Shanghai. We were doing improved version of GA4 and then we'll also -- we're going to have -- make the paint shop a lot simpler and general assembly a lot simpler. And after this call, I'm headed up back out to the body shop (inaudible)

是的，Model Y 是一種獨立的東西，但它絕對是讓我們相信我們可以在上海快速擴大規模且資本支出較低的因素之一。我們正在開發 GA4 的改進版本，然後我們也將使噴漆車間和總組裝變得更加簡單。打完這通電話後，我又要去汽車修理廠了（聽不清楚）

Body shop

美體小鋪

Maybe the body shop will

也許車身修理廠會

(inaudible) make it simpler.

（聽不清楚）讓它更簡單。

Yes, we can really [simplify] the body shop then. Wow. And there's a lot that are really easy to improve like design to manufacturing and changing -- change some of the joining (inaudible) that we use and actually make the car lighter, cheaper and better, actually safer. It's really ridiculous to say (inaudible), but yes.

是的，我們真的可以[簡化]車身修理廠。哇。還有很多方面確實很容易改進，例如設計、製造和改變——改變我們使用的一些連接（聽不清楚），實際上使汽車更輕、更便宜、更好、更安全。說起來確實很荒謬（聽不清楚），但確實如此。

(inaudible) Maybe just to follow up quickly, I think some people have taken this like a walk back from automation, which is not really accurate either. This is basically -- I mean, a more thoughtful and focused way to apply automation to the actual issues that matter most.

（聽不清楚）也許只是為了快速跟進，我認為有些人認為這是從自動化中倒退，但這也不準確。這基本上是——我的意思是，一種將自動化應用於最重要的實際問題的更周到和更專注的方法。

Yes, well said. That's right. Actually it's really worth emphasizing J.B.'s point here. Yes, worth saying again.

是的，說得好。這是正確的。實際上，這裡確實值得強調 J.B. 的觀點。是的，值得再說一次。

Yes, it's not an overall reduction in automation. It is a focusing of our efforts on automating the processes and the value-add processes that matter the most. And I think we got maybe a little bit distracted on this first round automating a lot of things that added complexity that didn't necessarily speed up. And...

是的，這並不是自動化程度的全面下降。我們的努力重點是實現最重要的流程和增值流程的自動化。我認為我們在第一輪自動化過程中可能有點分心，很多事情增加了複雜性，但不一定會加快速度。和...

Way too fancy.

太花俏了。

And we can save...

我們可以節省...

Start simple and get fancy later. Don't start fancy. Fancy's going to bite you in the ass.

從簡單開始，然後逐漸變得精緻。不要開始幻想。幻想會給你帶來麻煩。

But if it's not difficult, I refer to the dark ages of all manual everything. That's not all the case.

但如果這並不困難，我指的是所有手動操作的黑暗時代。事實並非如此。

Yes. I mean, Gigafactory is...

是的。我的意思是，Gigafactory 是......

Massively automated.

大規模自動化。

Massively automated. It's pretty -- it looks -- it's pretty crazy and -- but the body production was also heavily automated. Most some (inaudible) robots. So it's a mix of people and automation. There's so much that goes into producing a car, going from raw metal and plastic and glass to an actual finished car. And yes, so if you're saying (inaudible) is highly automated.

大規模自動化。它很漂亮——看起來——相當瘋狂——而且車身生產也高度自動化。大多數（聽不清楚）機器人。所以它是人與自動化的結合。生產一輛車需要很多工序，從原料金屬、塑膠和玻璃到真正的成品汽車。是的，所以如果你說（聽不清楚）是高度自動化的。

Okay. If I can sneak in one quick follow-up, I mean, when we look at the grosses on the Model 3, you're saying 15% in 3Q, 20% in 4Q, and I think the ultimate target is 25%. I mean, what are the average transaction prices you guys are assuming? I mean, it sounds they're going to be a bit higher earlier, but is that 25% gross ultimately still built around the low 40,000 ATP?

好的。如果我可以偷偷快速跟進一下，我的意思是，當我們查看 Model 3 的毛利率時，您說第三季度為 15%，第四季度為 20%，而我認為最終目標是 25%。我的意思是，你們假設的平均交易價格是多少？我的意思是，聽起來它們早些時候會更高一些，但 25% 的總額最終是否仍圍繞 40,000 ATP 的低點建立？

Yes. So the simple answer is yes.

是的。所以簡單的答案是肯定的。

It will be lower ASPs than what we have today clearly. And we are having a richer mix of all-wheel drive, as Elon alluded to earlier, so that's going to help. But yes, 25% is still the target that we have ahead of us.

顯然，它的平均售價會比我們現在的還要低。正如伊隆之前提到的，我們擁有更豐富的全輪驅動組合，所以這會有所幫助。但是，25% 仍然是我們面臨的目標。

I'm highly confident that -- it may not be Q1, but I'd be shocked if it's not Q2 that we get to 25%.

我非常有信心——也許不是第一季度，但如果不是第二季度我們就能達到 25%，我會感到震驚。

Our next question comes from [Alex Dirpes] with Berenberg.

我們的下一個問題來自 Berenberg 的 [Alex Dirpes]。

I would like to come back to the point made on the manufacturing efficiencies. I mean, over the 2 main challenges of Tesla, but also for the rest of the industry is the manufacturing parts, which has been overcome by a lot of companies already, with the second one being the technology part. My question is, how would you describe the learning curve of the manufacturing process versus technology? And what is really the pace of advancements you're making? Because it looks like on the manufacturing side, the curve (inaudible) meaningfully accelerated here?

我想回到關於製造效率的問題。我的意思是，特斯拉麵臨的兩個主要挑戰，以及其他產業的挑戰，都是製造部分，很多公司已經克服了這個問題，第二個挑戰是技術部分。我的問題是，您如何描述製造流程與技術的學習曲線？您取得進步的實際速度是怎樣的？因為從製造方面來看，曲線（聽不清楚）在這裡明顯加速了？

Well, I don't really know actually how others do it, to be totally frank. I just know that what we -- the way we -- I see the way we're doing it and I'm told that this is how others do it and we are able to find ways to make it much better.

嗯，坦白說，我實際上確實不知道其他人是怎麼做到的。我只知道我們——我們的方式——我看到了我們做事的方式，有人告訴我，其他人也是這樣做的，而我們能夠找到方法使其變得更好。

I guess, I...

我想，我...

I don't know what the delta would be there.

我不知道那裡的三角洲是多少。

We also don't really, I think, differentiate it quite the way maybe you're implying. I mean, technology and manufacturing are sort of one and the same in many cases, and we're treating a lot of the manufacturing problems as a technology problem and applying our design teams, our technology teams, if you want to call them, that to solving those issues. So I think the learning curves in some ways are quite similar.

我認為，我們實際上並沒有像您暗示的那樣對其進行區分。我的意思是，在許多情況下，技術和製造是同一件事，我們將許多製造問題視為技術問題，並運用我們的設計團隊、技術團隊（如果你願意這麼稱呼他們）來解決這些問題。所以我認為學習曲線在某些方面非常相似。

Yes. It's amazing how much of production is actually software.

是的。令人驚訝的是，生產中實際上有如此多的東西是軟體。

Yes.

是的。

And we're really quite good at software relative to other car companies. And manufacturing at volume is mostly a software problem. I think that was not well appreciated.

與其他汽車公司相比，我們在軟體方面確實相當出色。而大量生產主要是軟體問題。我認為這並沒有得到很好的重視。

I think maybe one other lesson learned is that it's obviously not the best approach or best efficiency to outsource some of that development. Some of the areas that we struggle the most through the Model 3 ramp were those where we had perhaps less visibility and less control and less direct kind of skin in the game on how those production lines were designed and built.

我認為也許另一個教訓是，將部分開發工作外包顯然不是最好的方法或最佳效率。在 Model 3 量產過程中，我們遇到的最大困難在於，我們對生產線的設計和建造方式缺乏了解，缺乏控制，缺乏直接的參與。

And these are cases where we took -- we engaged with companies that were supposed to be world-class experts in automotive production, and we just assumed that they would do -- that their stuff would work, but it didn't.

這些都是我們與一些公司合作的案例，這些公司本應是汽車生產領域的世界級專家，我們只是假設他們會成功，他們的東西會成功，但事實並非如此。

Yes. So that learning curve often involves Tesla coming directly and understanding the process intimately and simplifying it and then essentially doing our own design or changes to the lines that were built. And I think that's a key learning point that we've taken. And I think the way that we can do this a lot more efficiently in the future is kind of doing that approach from the start.

是的。因此，學習曲線通常涉及特斯拉直接深入了解流程並簡化流程，然後基本上進行我們自己的設計或對已建成的生產線進行更改。我認為這是我們學到的一個關鍵點。我認為，我們將來能夠更有效地做到這一點的方法就是從一開始就採用這種方法。

Yes, just having that very rapid iteration between design and production is incredibly helpful. And we're now -- we understand, for example, what are the weight limiters and what makes it hard to produce battery modules. And we came up with a new design that achieved the same outcome. It's actually lighter, better, cheaper and we'll be infusing that around the end of this year probably reach volume production on that in Q1 or something that will -- yes, we call that lighter, better and cheaper and achieve higher rates. And that line is under construction. It will be -- yes, active in about 6 months.

是的，設計和生產之間的快速迭代非常有幫助。我們現在了解了，例如，重量限制因素是什麼，以及什麼使得生產電池模組變得困難。我們提出了一種新的設計並實現了相同的結果。它實際上更輕、更好、更便宜，我們將在今年年底左右實現量產，或在第一季實現量產——是的，我們稱之為更輕、更好、更便宜，並實現更高的速率。該線路目前正在建設中。是的，它將在大約 6 個月後投入使用。

Yes, there's -- we did this somewhat the first time around, but now there is, I think, even more exciting understanding of the value of having those, as Elon said, having the design engineers just working intimately with automation and line engineers simplifying the process as they're designing a product.

是的，我們第一次就這麼做了，但現在，我認為，對擁有這些的價值有了更令人興奮的理解，正如 Elon 所說，讓設計工程師與自動化和生產線工程師密切合作，在設計產品時簡化流程。

Yes. And I mean, I -- because we're sort of desperate to try to get the production working, we actually took designers (inaudible) team and had them work in the factory and improve -- work on production and it's given them tremendous insight into how they need to change the designs in the future to make it easier to produce because you feel the pain directly.

是的。我的意思是，因為我們迫切希望讓生產順利進行，我們實際上召集了設計師（聽不清楚）團隊，讓他們到工廠工作並改進生產，這讓他們對未來需要如何改變設計有了深刻的了解，以便更容易生產，因為你可以直接感受到痛苦。

Exactly.

確切地。

Yes. That's the cruel thing. Like, okay...

是的。這真是殘酷的事。就像，好吧…

I won't do it anymore.

我不會再這麼做了。

Then I realize I was like torturing people with my terrible design. Now I know.

然後我意識到我就像是用糟糕的設計折磨別人。現在我知道了。

Our next question comes from Ben Kallo with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ben Kallo。

Elon, (inaudible) unless everything else (inaudible).

伊隆，（聽不清楚）除非其他一切都（聽不清楚）。

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Deepak, so after July here, how close are you to cash flow positive?

迪帕克，那麼 7 月之後，您的現金流距離正值還有多遠？

Sorry, your question is, after July, how close are we to cash flow positive?

抱歉，您的問題是，七月之後，我們距離現金流為正還有多遠？

Yes. You have July in the books here. So how close are you to (inaudible)?

是的。你已經記下了七月的事。那您距離（聽不清楚）還有多遠？

Yes, well we don't have -- (inaudible) this one, we don't have July results done. But it doesn't matter exactly where we are in the month of July. What really matters is over the quarter because it depends on deliveries, depends on production, many. many factors. So we will be significantly cash flow positive for the quarter. I think that's what really matters.

是的，我們沒有──（聽不清楚）這個，我們還沒有七月的結果。但七月份我們究竟身處何處並不重要。真正重要的是本季的情況，因為這取決於交付量、生產量等等。許多因素。因此本季我們的現金流將顯著為正。我認為這才是真正重要的。

Yes. [I think the logical] question is like, do we have like a low balance in the bank? The answer is no, we've got -- we're in no -- we're not in any kind of cash flow (inaudible).

是的。[我認為合乎邏輯的]問題是，我們的銀行存款餘額是否很低？答案是否定的，我們沒有──我們沒有──我們沒有任何形式的現金流（聽不清楚）。

Yes. I mean, if that's the -- yes, I mean, that's the simple answer.

是的。我的意思是，如果那是——是的，我的意思是，那是簡單的答案。

Are we running low on money? The answer is no.

我們的錢不夠用嗎？答案是否定的。

No, no, no, that's not the question. It's just as you're here and you have -- you're selling your higher-priced cars for a better margin, how does the third quarter look from what you said from being cash flow positive?

不，不，不，這不是問題。就像您在這裡一樣——您正在以更高的利潤率出售高價汽車，從您所說的現金流為正來看，第三季度的情況如何？

Yes, yes, I'd say highly confident of being cash flow positive and being GAAP profitable in Q3 .

是的，是的，我非常有信心第三季實現現金流為正，並實現 GAAP 獲利。

We're sitting here today saying that based on what our expectation is. So yes, sitting here (inaudible)

我們今天坐在這裡說這些話是基於我們的預期。是的，坐在這裡（聽不清楚）

Based on everything we know at the end of July, it's 1 month in. We're highly confident of being cash flow positive and GAAP profitable in Q3 and Q4. And now there could be a force majeure event like an earthquake (inaudible), something like that or massive recession all of a sudden. But in the absence of that, of really unusual macro events, yes.

根據我們在七月底所了解的一切，現在已經過去一個月了。我們非常有信心在第三季和第四季實現現金流為正並且實現 GAAP 獲利。現在可能會發生不可抗力事件，例如地震（聽不清楚）之類的事件，或突然出現大規模經濟衰退。但如果沒有真正不尋常的宏觀事件，那麼答案是肯定的。

Our next question comes from Tim Higgins for The Wall Street Journal.

我們的下一個問題來自《華爾街日報》的提姆希金斯。

A question for you. Do you still plan to make a total of 1 million vehicles in the calendar year of 2020?

問你一個問題。您還計劃在 2020 年全年生產總計 100 萬輛汽車嗎？

I think so, yes. If it's not a million, it's going to be pretty close. I'd say it's not a million, it's probably 750 or something like that in 2020. We're aiming for a million in 2020, but somewhere between 0.5 million and 1 million seems pretty likely.

是的，我想是的。就算不是一百萬，也差不多了。我想說的不是一百萬，到 2020 年大概是 750 左右。我們的目標是在 2020 年達到 100 萬，但 50 萬到 100 萬之間的數字似乎也很有可能。

Where do you get the capacity to do that?

你從哪裡獲得這樣的能力？

There's this place called Shanghai.

有一個地方叫上海。

Okay. Shanghai will be important for that?

好的。上海對此有重要意義嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Where does the Model Y...

好的。Model Y 在哪裡...

Yes, I think so. And I think we can do over 0.5 million vehicles -- well, actually probably more like 600,000 vehicles with current Giga in Fremont. And so then if you throw like 100, 200 more (inaudible) couple actually today from Shanghai. And I said, we'll probably (inaudible) with Fremont and Giga in Nevada. That's why I think maybe -- I think we have a shot at 1 million. But some of that was 700,000 or 800,000 seems pretty likely given the current what we know today.

是的，我認為是這樣。我認為我們可以生產超過 50 萬輛汽車——實際上，目前在弗里蒙特的 Giga 工廠可以生產 60 萬輛汽車。那麼，如果你今天從上海派出 100 到 200 多對（聽不清楚）夫婦。我說，我們可能會（聽不清楚）與內華達州的弗里蒙特和 Giga 合作。這就是為什麼我認為我們可能有機會達到 100 萬。但根據我們目前所知的情況，其中 70 萬或 80 萬似乎是很有可能的。

Have you made any decisions on where you're going to make the Model Y? Maybe you'd like to tell me?

您是否已經決定在哪裡生產 Model Y 了？也許你想告訴我？

Not yet. So.

還沒有。所以。

Do you expect to announce that this year, though?

但您預計今年會宣布這項消息嗎？

Maybe. Maybe. I should say we are hoping to identify a Gigafactory location in Europe before the end of this year. It's not for sure, but we are hoping to do that before the end of the year.

或許。或許。我應該說我們希望在今年年底前在歐洲確定一個超級工廠的位置。這還不確定，但我們希望在今年年底之前做到這一點。

Our next question comes from Zachary Shahan with CleanTechnica.

我們的下一個問題來自 CleanTechnica 的 Zachary Shahan。

First of all, thanks for the recent retweet, Elon. I was really, really impressed with the Model 3 after (inaudible), and so I'm really impressed how much you've developed since the early days. My first question was about conquest fails actually. Right before the call, we published an article that Camry sales were down 22% year-over-year, Prius sales were down 23% year-over-year, and we're very curious how much you're pulling from these other cars, other segments. It sounds like you've sort of answered that question at the beginning, but can you give anything in terms of what percentage those top 5 are in terms of trade-in sales and how broad you're pulling? I know you pull from pickup trucks, from sports cars. Can you speak a little more about the diversity you're pulling from?

首先，感謝你最近的轉發，伊隆。在 (聽不清楚) 之後，我對 Model 3 印象非常深刻，因此我對你們自早期以來取得的進展也印象深刻。我的第一個問題其實是關於征服失敗。就在電話會議之前，我們發表了一篇文章，稱凱美瑞銷量同比下降 22%，普銳斯銷量同比下降 23%，我們非常好奇您從其他車型、其他細分市場獲得了多少收益。聽起來您一開始就已經回答了這個問題，但是您能否透露一下這前五名在以舊換新銷售額中所佔的百分比以及您的範圍有多廣？我知道你會從皮卡車、跑車上拉車。能否再多談談您所體現的多元性？

Actually we don't -- actually what we have right now is just the top 5. (inaudible) what the allocation is between top 5 or where it goes beyond top 5. We're just sort of (inaudible) top 5 breakdown. And it's just interesting that a few are trading up into a Tesla, so they're willing to spend more money on a Tesla than their current car just based on the trade-in values. I mean, a Civic is a very inexpensive car compared to a -- particularly the Model 3 today. So that's promising from a market access standpoint. But of course, we're going to do the Model Y and compact SUV. We're going to do pickup truck, the Semi, the next-generation Roadster. I mean, we have such awesome ideas and probably the biggest limiter on our growth is like how fast can we grow battery production and especially cell production on the wholesale supply chain, I think will be the fundamental determinant of Tesla's growth. We're super fired up to the (inaudible). Like I think they're all super cool. I know (inaudible) Semi, and that's pretty wicked obviously and -- it's pretty -- it's great. And we are ramping -- we've actually faired -- we made significant improvements in the designs since the unveiling that we had and so really even better than what we talked about. The -- probably my personal favorite for the next product is pickup truck and we're just doing an amazing pickup truck. And the Model Y compact SUV, probably the most popular car category in the world, obviously going to sell pretty well. So a lot of cool things. And of course, [fuel cell] energy getting the -- we're kind of self-starved for (inaudible). So we actually had to artificially lift the Powerwalls because we don't have enough cells. So we're (inaudible) for that very rapidly, and we expect to ramp up Powerwall and Powerpack production substantially later this year and early next. And as well as getting (inaudible) -- as well as ramping up of the solar and then the Solar Roof. We now have several hundred homes with Solar Roof on them, and that's going well. It takes a while to just confirm that Solar Roof is going to last for 30 years and all the details work out and working with first responders to make sure it's safe in the event of a fire and that kind of thing. So it's quite a long validation program for a roof which is going to last for 30, 40, 50 years. But that we also expect to ramp that up next year at Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo. That's going to be super exciting. So (inaudible) I think we're (inaudible) if there's a company with a better product roadmap. I'd like to know what it is because like this is what -- we got some super awesome stuff coming. Yes.

實際上我們不知道 - 實際上我們現在所擁有的只是前 5 名。 （聽不清楚）前 5 名之間的分配情況或​​前 5 名之後的分配情況。我們只是（聽不清楚）前 5 名的細分。有趣的是，少數人正在換購特斯拉，因此，僅根據以舊換新價值，他們就願意花更多的錢購買特斯拉，而不是現在的汽車。我的意思是，與今天的 Model 3 相比，思域是一款非常便宜的車。從市場准入的角度來看，這是有希望的。但當然，我們會生產 Model Y 和緊湊型 SUV。我們將生產皮卡車、半拖車和下一代敞篷跑車。我的意思是，我們有如此棒的想法，而我們成長的最大限制因素可能是我們能多快地增加電池產量，特別是批發供應鏈上的電池產量，我認為這將是特斯拉成長的根本決定因素。我們對（聽不清楚）非常熱衷。我覺得他們都超酷。我知道（聽不清楚）塞米，這顯然非常邪惡，而且 - 它非常 - 它很棒。我們正在加大力度——實際上我們已經做到了——自從我們推出這款產品以來，我們在設計上取得了重大改進，甚至比我們談論的還要好。我個人最喜歡的下一款產品可能是皮卡車，我們正在生產一輛令人驚嘆的皮卡車。Model Y 緊湊型 SUV 可能是世界上最受歡迎的汽車類別，顯然銷量會相當不錯。有很多很酷的事情。當然，[燃料電池] 能量得到了——我們有點自我匱乏（聽不清楚）。因此，我們實際上必須人為地抬起 Powerwall，因為我們沒有足夠的電池。因此，我們（聽不清楚）正在迅速實現這一目標，我們預計將在今年稍後和明年年初大幅提高 Powerwall 和 Powerpack 的產量。以及獲得（聽不清楚） - 以及增加太陽能和太陽能屋頂。現在我們有數百戶家庭安裝了太陽能屋頂，而且進展順利。需要一段時間才能確認太陽能屋頂可以使用 30 年，所有細節都已確定，並且需要與急救人員合作，確保在發生火災等事件時是安全的。所以對於使用壽命 30、40、50 年的屋頂來說，這是一個相當長的驗證程序。但我們也希望明年在布法羅的 Gigafactory 2 上實現這一目標。這將會非常令人興奮。所以（聽不清楚）我認為我們（聽不清楚）是否有一家公司擁有更好的產品路線圖。我想知道它是什麼，因為就像這樣——我們得到了一些超級棒的東西。是的。

And regarding the Model Y, there's been a lot of questioning if you're going to have the same process as with Model 3 with reservations, if you can shorten the reservation timeline or if you're going to have a different process this time around.

關於 Model Y，許多人質疑是否會採用與 Model 3 相同的預訂流程，是否可以縮短預訂時間，或者這次是否會採用不同的流程。

We haven't made a final decision on that.

我們尚未就此做出最終決定。

So last question, then. Regarding the daily production, we've been seeing a sort of a rise and fall with the daily production of the Model 3 as you incorporate new performance or white seats. Can you speak at all -- we always like to get the technical side of what you're doing there. Can you tell what the bottlenecks are right now that you're working through? And what we can sort of -- how we can picture ourselves in the factory there with you?

那麼，最後一個問題。關於每日產量，隨著新性能車型或白色座椅的加入，我們看到 Model 3 的每日產量出現了上升和下降。您能講一下嗎—我們總是想了解您所做工作的技術面。您能說出目前您遇到的瓶頸是什麼嗎？我們能想像我們和你們一起在工廠裡嗎？

All right. And the thing -- actually what I love about your writing is that you really care about getting the details right and you really understand things well, which is awesome. And -- but after what -- be careful I don't have soundbite that is then for those that don't have a nuanced appreciation of the situation, that soundbite then gets -- becomes front-page news. That's like, nope, that's not what I meant. Exactly. And like, oh, man. this is like (inaudible) But the -- right now, the biggest constraint on production again, do not -- please don't make federal case out of this because (inaudible) so like in a matter of like a week or 2. It's like it's body production, so that's why -- I mean, you can certainly tell what am I personally working on that's going to be a bottleneck in the company. So most likely producing Model 3 bodies. We made huge progress in the last few weeks and, in fact, I was just told that we're able to achieve our first 24-hour period where we made over 800 Model 3 bodies, which is pretty great. And so that sets us -- so we just make sure again that we sustain that 800-plus per day rate. And then (inaudible) is doing great. GA's doing great. Yes, it's good.

好的。而事實上——實際上我喜歡你的寫作是因為你真正關心細節的正確性並且你真的理解事物，這太棒了。而且 — — 但之後 — — 小心，我沒有聲音片段，然後對於那些沒有對情況進行細緻了解的人來說，聲音片段就會 — — 成為頭版新聞。就像，不，這不是我的意思。確切地。就像，哦，天哪。這就像（聽不清楚）但是——現在，生產面臨的最大限制再次是，請不要——請不要把這當成聯邦政府的案件，因為（聽不清楚）所以就像在一兩週內。這就像是車身生產，所以這就是為什麼——我的意思是，你當然可以知道我個人正在做什麼，這將成為公司的瓶頸。因此最有可能的是生產 Model 3 車身。我們在過去幾週取得了巨大的進展，事實上，我剛剛得知，我們首次在 24 小時內生產了超過 800 輛 Model 3 車身，這非常棒。這讓我們 — — 再次確保我們能維持每天 800 多個的速度。然後（聽不清楚）做得很好。GA 表現很棒。是的，很好。

A quick request. Years ago, you warned about a coming short tsunami and it seemed obvious that it was coming, but the shorts didn't really seem to recognize it and then sort of attacked you, trolled you for months. And then finally, it came. You again warned very honestly, I think, very directly that there is going to be a short -- kind of epic short squeeze. We have, I think, the whole community has a little request. Don't let the trolls get you down. Don't see the trolls too much, but we do like it when you tease the trolls a bit. So you do your judgment, but thanks a lot for what you're doing.

一個快速請求。幾年前，您警告說，一場空頭海嘯即將來臨，而且看起來很明顯它就要來了，但空頭似乎並沒有真正意識到這一點，然後就對您發起了攻擊，對您進行了長達數月的騷擾。然後它終於來了。我認為，您再次非常誠實、非常直接地警告說，將會出現一次史詩般的空頭擠壓。我認為，我們整個社區都有一個小小的請求。別讓巨魔讓你失望。雖然我們不太常見到巨魔，但是當你稍微戲弄一下巨魔時我們確實喜歡它。所以你做出了判斷，但非常感謝你所做的一切。

Right. Well, thank you for your enough coverage of [cleanup] energy technology.

正確的。好吧，感謝您對[清潔]能源技術的足夠報道。

And the very last question comes from Galileo Russell who represents the retail shareholders.

最後一個問題來自代表散戶股東的伽利略·羅素 (Galileo Russell)。

Congrats on awesome quarter. Really proud to be a Tesla shareholder with the Model 3 ramping to 5,000 a week. And I think you may have touched on this, but I'm curious, will Tesla ever produce vehicles at Gigafactory 1, maybe the Semi? And then I'm curious on any manufacturing synergies between the Semi and the Model 3.

恭喜本季取得如此出色的成績。真的很自豪能夠成為特斯拉的股東，Model 3 的周產量已增加至 5,000 輛。我想你可能已經提到過這一點，但我很好奇，特斯拉會在 Gigafactory 1 生產汽車嗎，也許是 Semi？然後我很好奇 Semi 和 Model 3 之間的製造協同效應。

Oh interesting questions. You always ask us really, really interesting questions. Really, really interesting questions that I cannot actually -- the first one, I cannot -- it gets so much attention where we put production, so I cannot answer any like where we're going to put production questions. The -- but will the Semi use a bunch of Model 3 technology, the answer is yes. Jerome, I don't know if you want to elaborate on that or...

哦，有趣的問題。您總是問我們非常非常有趣的問題。第一個問題確實非常有趣，我無法真正回答——我們將生產放在哪裡引起了太多的關注，所以我無法回答任何像我們將把生產放在哪裡這樣的問題。但是 Semi 是否會使用大量 Model 3 技術？答案是肯定的。傑羅姆，我不知道你是否想詳細說明一下…

Well, I mean, you can already see in the prototype that we've had virtually out of the Model 3 component, the screen, the door handles, I mean, as much as possible -- yes, the motors, yes, and the prototype a lot of the cell technology. But there are some changes and I'd rather not say it in public, yes. Obviously, it's going to be better than what we showed last year, a lot of improvements. Yes.

嗯，我的意思是，你已經可以在原型中看到，我們幾乎已經從 Model 3 組件中取出了屏幕、門把手，我的意思是，盡可能多的東西——是的，還有電機，是的，原型中的很多電池技術。但確實存在一些變化，我寧願不公開說出來，是的。顯然，它會比我們去年展示的更好，並且有很多改進。是的。

Okay. So hopefully, you can talk more about this. With the battery project with PG&E that was recently announced, I'm wondering if you can elaborate how you're prioritizing battery pack between auto and energy storage. Because it seems like you ramped auto battery packs to 20 gigawatt hours in the past 12 months, but are only guiding for about 1 gigawatt hour of Tesla energy installation in the next year. So I'm wondering why is Tesla Energy, given its supply constraints, like why not ramp that supply to 10 gigawatts? It seems like the guidance is still low there.

好的。所以希望您能就此多談談。關於最近宣布的與 PG&E 合作的電池項目，我想知道您是否可以詳細說明如何在汽車和儲能之間優先考慮電池組。因為看起來你在過去 12 個月中將汽車電池組的容量提升到了 20 千兆瓦時，但明年特斯拉能源的安裝量卻只預計為 1 千兆瓦時左右。所以我想知道，鑑於特斯拉能源的供應限制，為什麼不將供應量提高到 10 千兆瓦？看起來那裡的指導仍然很低。

Yes. It's -- as Elon suggested earlier, we are -- essentially, it makes sense for us to prioritize Model 3. But we are adding a ton of capacity, self-capacity, and J.B. could talk more about it, that will enable us too dramatically ramp our energy storage business as well in the coming quarters.

是的。正如 Elon 之前所說，從本質上講，優先考慮 Model 3 是有道理的。但我們正在增加大量產能，自有產能，J.B. 可以更多地談論它，這將使我們能夠在未來幾個季度大幅提升我們的能源儲存業務。

Yes. You kind of mentioned only 1 gigawatt hour, but that's a big number in that business, and it's maybe on the order of 300% what we did the prior year. And we're still aiming at maybe another 3, 3x to 4x growth for 2019.

是的。您提到只有 1 千兆瓦時，但對於該行業來說，這是一個很大的數字，可能相當於我們前一年產量的 300%。我們仍希望 2019 年能再成長 3 倍、3 倍甚至 4 倍。

So we're at scale. These are insane growth levels.

所以我們的規模是比較大的。這些都是瘋狂的成長水準。

Crazy growth rate.

瘋狂的增長率。

It's a little like serving software. This is like you actually need to build those -- like a lot of atoms but (inaudible) you know what I mean? Like once you build software, you can obviously have lots of copies, but there's like a lot of really complicated atoms, man.

這有點像提供軟體。這就像你實際上需要建造那些——就像很多原子但（聽不清楚）你明白我的意思嗎？就像一旦你建立了軟體，你顯然可以擁有很多副本，但是有很多非常複雜的原子。

Maybe specifically also to your cell -- to the cell limitation question, I think this has been mentioned before, but we also do use some other vendors.

也許具體針對您的電池 - 對於電池限制問題，我認為這之前已經提到過，但我們也確實使用了一些其他供應商。

Yes, we start [accelerating in LG] and...

是的，我們開始[在 LG 加速]並且...

Exactly, our energy products. So I heard people feel like this is kind of a zero-sum game or something with Model 3, but that is not the case.

沒錯，就是我們的能源產品。所以我聽說人們覺得這有點像 Model 3 的零和遊戲，但事實並非如此。

We do a partial-sum game (inaudible) we did shut down this Powerwall cell line for Model 3, to be totally honest, but we kind of have to do that. But that's -- we're adding new cell lines, and we'll be able to address that issue very soon.

我們進行了一場部分和遊戲（聽不清楚），坦白說，我們確實關閉了 Model 3 的 Powerwall 電池生產線，但我們必須這樣做。但那是——我們正在添加新的細胞系，我們很快就能解決這個問題。

I think one perspective we are seeing (inaudible) also...

我認為我們看到的一個觀點（聽不清楚）也是......

So these are mad growth numbers, mad.

所以這些是瘋狂的成長數字，瘋狂。

Last year, and it's one thing to produce, but it's also another thing to install (inaudible) you need the infrastructure and the people to do that. So this massive scaling is very few companies grow at that rate.

去年，生產是一回事，安裝又是另一回事（聽不清楚），你需要基礎設施和人員來做這件事。因此，很少有公司能以這種大規模擴張的速度成長。

Yes. And one of the great challenges (inaudible) there need to be a lot more electricians. So we actually had an electrician training program. We're going to actually have to fast-train new people who've never been electricians before. The electricians because otherwise, (inaudible) there's not a lot of electrician capacity in the United States and most places in the world to install Powerwalls. And so we'd have to actually literally train electricians and like it takes like 2 years basically before somebody is certified to be an electrician. So it sounds like, okay, we [obviously] can't grow faster from the rates and number of electricians who can physically install Powerwalls. That's like one of the limitations.

是的。最大的挑戰之一（聽不清楚）是需要更多的電工。所以我們實際上有一個電工培訓計劃。我們實際上必須對以前從未擔任過電工的新人進行快速培訓。電工，因為否則，（聽不清楚）美國和世界上大多數地方都沒有足夠的電工能力來安裝 Powerwall。因此，我們必須真正地培訓電工，基本上需要兩年的時間才能讓一個人獲得電工資格證書。所以聽起來，好吧，我們（顯然）無法從能夠實際安裝 Powerwall 的電工的費率和數量上實現更快的增長。這就像是其中一個限制。

And that PG&E project you mentioned is an incredibly exciting one. It kind of is indicative of the growth rate. It has (inaudible)

您提到的 PG&E 專案非常令人興奮。它在某種程度上可以表明成長率。它有（聽不清楚）

Yes, can you elaborate on that?

是的，您能詳細說明一下嗎？

Saying (inaudible)

說（聽不清楚）

But I mean, it is over (inaudible) gigawatt hour. Really considered.

但我的意思是，它已經超過（聽不清楚）千兆瓦時了。確實考慮過了。

Yes, gigawatt hour. that's public, right?

是的，千兆瓦時。這是公開的，對吧？

It is now. And it has a -- and just to give you a sense, it took us 5 years of growing that business to get to a gigawatt hour cumulative deployed.

現在是了。而且它有一個——只是為了讓你了解一下，我們花了 5 年的時間來發展這項業務，才達到累計部署 1 千兆瓦時的目標。

And someone who had said gigawatt hour is an impossible number for lithium-ion. Like that's -- yes.

有人曾說，千兆瓦時對鋰離子來說是一個不可能的數字。就像那樣——是的。

The car business is still much bigger as we sit here today, but the growth rate on energy is faster.

截至目前，汽車業務規模仍然很大，但能源業務的成長速度更快。

Yes, if you extrapolate energy growth rate -- well, obviously if you extrapolate anything (inaudible) your pretty soon becomes (inaudible) But long term, we would expect the energy business to catch up to the order of business in size.

是的，如果你推斷能源成長率——好吧，顯然如果你推斷任何東西（聽不清楚）你很快就會變成（聽不清楚）但從長遠來看，我們預計能源業務將在規模上趕上業務的順序。

And then lastly, I'm really curious. Elon, do you have any part of the business that shareholders should be asking or thinking more about? Or what do you wish would have been asked on the call?

最後，我真的很好奇。埃隆，你的業務中是否有任何部分是股東應該詢問或考慮的？或是您希望在通話中詢問什麼問題？

Good question. We're trying to anticipate -- actually we're trying to anticipate the questions that are on people's minds (inaudible) Autopilot (inaudible) Autopilot team here and much of the executive team of Tesla here, to try to be proactive in that regard. Was there anything (inaudible) I think we really covered a lot. So there is any -- yes.

好問題。我們正在嘗試預測 - 實際上我們正在嘗試預測人們心中的問題（聽不清楚）自動駕駛儀（聽不清楚）這裡的自動駕駛儀團隊和特斯拉的大部分執行團隊，試圖在這方面採取積極主動的態度。有什麼（聽不清楚）我認為我們確實討論了很多。所以有——是的。

Just my very last thing, the new fiscal engineering strategy of profit and cash flow and you say not to last in perpetuity sort of, sort of caught me by surprise personally. And so I'm curious if there's any tradeoff to growth with that new strategy? Or sort of what's the rationale behind the scenes. Because this just seems like the biggest change in Tesla's financial engineering strategy since the IPO.

最後我想說的是，新的利潤和現金流財務工程策略不會永遠持續下去，這讓我個人感到很驚訝。所以我很好奇，這種新策略是否會對成長產生不利影響？或者說，幕後背後的理由是什麼。因為這似乎是特斯拉自 IPO 以來金融工程策略的最大變化。

Yes, I mean, being cash flow positive and capital positive doesn't mean we're rolling in money. Like there's definitely going to be cases where we're just barely cash flow positive or barely profitable in some quarters in the future. But I think we're -- and it's been a long time now, it's almost 15 years now. I think we're at a scale where the amount of time that it takes to actually scale up and do things is, there's a certain minimum -- like we're big enough where we actually can spend money efficiently to make things go faster. So we kind of hit scale with volume production of cars. And I think we can -- I think this is probably the right thing to do, is to be sort of essentially self-funding on a go-forward basis. And apart from selective situations where there's some debt, temporary debt for construction of a Gigafactory in China or Europe or something like that, but apart from that, I think we -- like essentially, I don't think we're constraining growth in any significant way by adopting the strategy at this point. It would have been true in times past, but I think it is not the case. Yes.

是的，我的意思是，現金流為正、資本為正並不意味著我們就會賺錢。就像在未來的某些季度中，我們肯定會出現現金流勉強為正或勉強獲利的情況。但我認為我們已經——現在已經很久了，差不多有 15 年了。我認為，我們目前所處的規模，對於實際擴大規模和做事所需的時間而言，有一個特定的最低限度——比如，我們的規模足夠大，我們實際上可以有效地花錢，讓事情進展得更快。因此，我們的汽車批量生產達到了一定規模。我認為我們可以——我認為這可能是正確的做法，即在未來實現本質上的自籌資金。除了某些特定情況，例如在中國或歐洲建造超級工廠時產生的一些臨時債務，但除此之外，我認為我們——基本上，我認為我們目前採用這一戰略不會以任何顯著的方式限製成長。在過去這可能是真的，但我認為事實並非如此。是的。

Okay. I think that's all (inaudible). Thank you very much. Unfortunately, that's, I think, all the time we have today. Appreciate all of your questions and looking forward to speak to you next quarter.

好的。我認為就這些了（聽不清楚）。非常感謝。不幸的是，我想，我們今天所擁有的時間就這麼多了。感謝您提出的所有問題，並期待下個季度與您交談。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may all disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，感謝大家參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。你們都可以斷開連接，享受美好的一天。