特斯拉 (TSLA) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Inc.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到特斯拉公司。

Fourth Quarter 2017 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call.

2017 年第四季度財務業績問答電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Senior Director of Investor Relations, Mr. Martin Viecha.

（操作員說明）我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係高級總監 Martin Viecha 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Andrew, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，安德魯，大家下午好。

Welcome to Tesla's Fourth Quarter 2017 Q&A Webcast.

歡迎收聽特斯拉 2017 年第四季度網絡直播。

I'm joined today by Elon Musk, J.B. Straubel, Deepak Ahuja and Doug Field is on the line.

今天有 Elon Musk、J.B. Straubel、Deepak Ahuja 和 Doug Field 加入了我的行列。

Our 4Q results were announced at about 1 p.m.

我們在下午 1 點左右公佈了第四季度業績。

Pacific Time in the update letter we published at the same link as this webcast.

太平洋時間在我們發佈在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上的更新信中。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。

These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。

Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Before we jump to Q&A, Elon would like to have some opening remarks.

在我們跳到問答環節之前，埃隆想先做一些開場白。

Elon?

埃隆?

Right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

So 2017 was also a big year for Tesla.

所以 2017 年對於特斯拉來說也是重要的一年。

We launched the Model 3, which was our first mass production vehicle, and it's a huge step change for Tesla.

我們推出了 Model 3，這是我們的第一款量產車，這對特斯拉來說是一個巨大的進步。

A lot of challenges but I think we made tremendous progress on that front.

有很多挑戰，但我認為我們在這方面取得了巨大進展。

We also designed and installed and got into operation the world's largest battery in Australia, the largest battery by a significant margin.

我們還在澳大利亞設計並安裝了世界上最大的電池並投入使用，這是最大的電池。

And that battery is exceeding its performance targets significantly.

而且該電池大大超出了其性能目標。

We also unveiled the Tesla Semi, which is a super heavy-duty truck, maximum load semi truck, and the next-gen Roadster, which we believe will exceed gasoline sports cars on every dimension.

我們還發布了 Tesla Semi，這是一款超重型卡車、最大載重半卡車和下一代 Roadster，我們相信它在各個方面都將超過汽油跑車。

And we also achieved record production and deliveries of Model S and X. And overall, I think, while there were challenges associated with Model 3 ramp at the -- we were in a deeper level of hell than we expected.

我們還實現了 Model S 和 X 的創紀錄產量和交付量。總的來說，我認為，雖然 Model 3 斜坡上存在一些挑戰——但我們處於比我們預期的更深的地獄中。

So a few levels deeper than we'd like to be but swiftly exiting, I think.

所以比我們想要的更深一些級別，但很快就會退出，我想。

And so it's really, I think, on balance, a phenomenal year.

所以，我認為，總的來說，這是非凡的一年。

And I'd like to thank everyone at Tesla, who should be very proud of the work they've done.

我要感謝特斯拉的每一個人，他們應該為自己所做的工作感到非常自豪。

This is incredibly difficult.

這是非常困難的。

I'd like to thank everyone for their hard work and contribution to 2017 being a really good year for Tesla.

我要感謝大家的辛勤工作和貢獻，2017 年對特斯拉來說是非常好的一年。

I also want to thank our suppliers, particularly those involved in Model 3, as they've shared the vertical struggle we've had in ramping our production, and they've really burned the midnight oil, spent weekends and taking a lot of risks and suffered alongside us in the challenges associated with the ramp.

我還要感謝我們的供應商，尤其是那些參與 Model 3 的供應商，因為他們分享了我們在提高產量方面所經歷的垂直鬥爭，他們真的在熬夜，度過週末並承擔了很多風險並與我們一起經歷與坡道相關的挑戰。

So I'd like to thank them for supporting us through this difficult time with Model 3.

所以我要感謝他們在 Model 3 的艱難時期支持我們。

As well, our customers and Model 3 reservation holders, you're going to love your cars, and we are working to get them to you as quickly as we possibly can.

同樣，我們的客戶和 Model 3 預訂持有者，您會愛上您的汽車，我們正在努力盡快將它們送到您手中。

As for Model 3 production, we continue to make significant progress every day, and we are targeting a weekly production rate of 2,500 vehicles by the end of March and 5,000 by the end of Q2.

至於 Model 3 的生產，我們每天都在繼續取得重大進展，我們的目標是到 3 月底達到每週生產 2,500 輛，到第二季度末達到 5,000 輛。

And as what's been -- or you've seen in the letter, the quarter-over-quarter production of Model 3 is rising exponentially.

正如過去——或者你在信中看到的那樣，Model 3 的季度產量呈指數級增長。

So I hope we'll -- that people think that if we can send a Roadster to the asteroid belt, we can probably solve Model 3 production.

所以我希望我們會——人們認為如果我們能把一輛跑車送到小行星帶，我們可能會解決 Model 3 的生產問題。

It's just a matter of time.

這只是時間問題。

So -- and really the error bars on the timing are really quite small in the grand scheme of things.

所以——實際上，時間上的誤差線在宏偉的計劃中真的很小。

So it's -- 2018 is likely to be a very big year for us.

因此，2018 年對我們來說可能是非常重要的一年。

At some point in 2018, we expect to begin generating positive quarterly operating income on a sustained basis, operating 5,000 a week of Model 3 production.

在 2018 年的某個時候，我們預計將開始持續產生正的季度營業收入，每週生產 5,000 輛 Model 3。

And I am cautiously optimistic that we will be GAAP profitable.

我謹慎樂觀地認為，我們將在 GAAP 中實現盈利。

It's not certain, but it's -- I'm cautiously optimistic that we will actually be GAAP profitable with no asterisk.

不確定，但它是——我謹慎樂觀地認為，我們實際上將在沒有星號的情況下實現 GAAP 盈利。

Thank you, Elon.

謝謝你，埃隆。

Andrew, let's go to the first question.

安德魯，讓我們來回答第一個問題。

I'm showing we have a question from the line of Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank.

我在向我們展示一個來自德意志銀行的 Rod Lache 的問題。

Congratulations on the launch yesterday.

祝賀昨天的發射。

Wanted to just ask a couple of questions.

只想問幾個問題。

One is just to get a little bit more color from you on Model 3, what the production run rate is at the moment.

一個是為了讓你在 Model 3 上獲得更多的色彩，目前的生產運行率是多少。

Maybe if you can just provide us with a little bit more color on where the challenges are at this point?

也許您可以為我們提供更多關於目前挑戰所在的顏色？

On the last call, you talked about, I think, 2 of the 4 zones at Gigafactory that were still kind of an issue in manual operation.

在上次通話中，您談到了 Gigafactory 的 4 個區域中有 2 個在手動操作中仍然存在問題。

Have those been resolved?

這些都解決了嗎？

And once you get to 2,500, is the ramp to 5,000 -- does that just merely involve increasing line speeds?

一旦達到 2,500，是否會上升到 5,000——這是否僅涉及提高生產線速度？

Sure.

當然。

I'll try to give as much color as possible.

我會盡量提供盡可能多的顏色。

I am reminded of -- I think it may have been Churchill's line about sausage.

我想起了——我想這可能是丘吉爾關於香腸的台詞。

If you like sausage and respect the law, you should watch neither being made.

如果您喜歡香腸並遵守法律，那麼您應該注意兩者都不做。

And just to me, that is true of a production ramp.

就我而言，生產坡道確實如此。

So I wouldn't read too much into the day-to-day battles of this or that, but I'll give you the color, but don't like -- don't read too much into it.

所以我不會過多地閱讀這個或那個的日常戰鬥，但我會給你顏色，但不喜歡 - 不要閱讀太多。

So yes, there are 4 zones in module production.

所以是的，模塊生產有 4 個區域。

Module production is fundamentally the limiting factor on Model 3 output, which is ironic since battery modules really should be the thing we're best at.

模塊生產從根本上是限制 Model 3 輸出的因素，具有諷刺意味的是，電池模塊確實應該是我們最擅長的事情。

And I think in part, we were probably a little overconfident, a little complacent in thinking about this is something we know and understand and put a lot of attention on other things, not -- and just got too comfortable with our ability to do battery modules because we've been doing that since the start of the company.

我認為在某種程度上，我們可能有點過於自信，有點自滿地認為這是我們知道和理解的事情，並且把很多注意力放在其他事情上，而不是——只是對我們做電池的能力太滿意了模塊，因為我們從公司成立以來就一直在這樣做。

And of the 4 zones, 2 of them, which is subcontracted to -- the production system is subcontracted to other companies, flat out, didn't work, it turns out.

在這 4 個區域中，其中 2 個被分包給——生產系統被分包給其他公司，結果完全沒有工作。

Like I mean, we were promised they would work, and it just didn't work.

就像我的意思一樣，我們被承諾他們會工作，但它沒有奏效。

So we had to do what would normally be maybe an 18-month development cycle for a production system of that scale and complexity and tried to do that in basically 6 months, maybe a little -- 6 to 9 months.

因此，對於具有如此規模和復雜性的生產系統，我們必須完成通常可能需要 18 個月的開發週期的工作，並嘗試在基本上 6 個月內完成，也許稍微——6 到 9 個月。

And we've tackled that on multiple levels, so we have a design that is nearing completion for a new automated system for zone 1 and 2. That is being led by a Tesla ground team.

我們已經在多個層面上解決了這個問題，因此我們的 1 區和 2 區新自動化系統的設計即將完成。這是由特斯拉地麵團隊領導的。

It's an excellent design.

這是一個很棒的設計。

All the other work that they've done has been -- has performed to spec.

他們所做的所有其他工作都已按照規範執行。

And we expect a single Tesla ground line to be equivalent to 3, if not 4, of the current lines that we have and be smaller, which is, for me, kind of amazing.

我們預計，一條特斯拉接地線相當於我們現有的 3 條（如果不是 4 條）接地線，而且更小，對我來說，這有點令人驚訝。

And then we have what we call a semiautomatic line, which is a series of small automated stations manned by people.

然後我們就有了我們所說的半自動生產線，它是一系列由人工操作的小型自動化站。

And they've actually been remarkably effective.

它們實際上非常有效。

It has sort of renewed my faith in humanity that the rapid evolution of progress and the ability of people to adapt rapidly has -- is quite remarkable.

它讓我重新相信人類進步的迅速演變和人們快速適應的能力——非常了不起。

Our semiautomatic -- our sort of semi-manual, semiautomatic line is exceeding all 3 of the automatic lines right now.

我們的半自動——我們這種半手動、半自動的生產線現在超過了所有 3 條自動生產線。

So -- and that is something that we're able to scale quite rapidly.

所以 - 這是我們能夠迅速擴展的東西。

I mean, J.B., is there additional color you'd like to add on that?

我的意思是，J.B.，您還想添加其他顏色嗎？

Sure, that's a great summary of it.

當然，這是一個很好的總結。

I think much has been made about the manual production of modules.

我認為關於模塊的手動生產已經做了很多。

That's really not very accurate.

這真的不是很準確。

These are, as Elon said, semiauto lines where we have people there moving materials perhaps between the machines that are actually performing the operations.

正如埃隆所說，這些是半自動生產線，我們在那裡有人在實際執行操作的機器之間移動材料。

But there is still a degree of automation doing the operation.

但仍有一定程度的自動化操作。

Right.

正確的。

It's not artisanal.

這不是手工的。

Exactly.

確切地。

And this is what has been ramping quite effectively in the last -- in the first half -- the first part of this year.

這就是在今年上半年——上半年——今年上半年，一直在非常有效地增長的東西。

So we're continuing to expand that, the semiauto lines, and that is effectively bridging the gap as we redesign the full automation and bring that online.

因此，我們將繼續擴展半自動生產線，這有效地彌合了差距，因為我們重新設計了全自動化並將其上線。

Yes.

是的。

And it's pretty -- it's a small thing.

它很漂亮——這是一件小事。

So actually, I think it's probably worth providing some tours for investors that are interested, so you can actually see it first-hand.

所以實際上，我認為可能值得為感興趣的投資者提供一些遊覽，這樣你就可以親眼看到它。

I think a lot of it is like if you see it first-hand, you will understand exactly what's going on.

我認為很多事情就像如果你親眼看到它，你就會明白到底發生了什麼。

And so I think let's arrange for some new tours for investors that are interested because I think you can really get a feel for what it is.

所以我認為讓我們為感興趣的投資者安排一些新的旅行，因為我認為你可以真正感受到它是什麼。

Otherwise, it's just some words that are kind of hard to put -- hard to imagine.

否則，這只是一些很難說的詞——很難想像。

I also just want to add, I think it's fair to say that this maybe degree of complacency that happened at the end of last year has been pretty thoroughly replaced by an intense focus from a huge portion of the Tesla team.

我還想補充一點，我認為可以公平地說，去年年底發生的這種自滿程度已經完全被特斯拉團隊大部分成員的高度關注所取代。

And there are a lot of different initiatives and teams, whole teams, targeted at this area.

並且有很多不同的計劃和團隊，整個團隊都針對這一領域。

So as Elon opened with, it's not a question of if we will get to the production rate, it's just a question of the matter of time.

因此，正如 Elon 所說，這不是我們能否達到生產率的問題，而只是時間問題。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

If I could just clarify, what's the run rate now with semiautomation?

如果我能澄清一下，現在半自動化的運行速度是多少？

And when are you expecting the fully automated line to come on?

您預計什麼時候會出現全自動生產線？

Well, it's probably a level of granularity that is not productive to dive into in terms of exactly what is coming from which operation.

好吧，就具體來自哪個操作而言，它可能是一個沒有效率的粒度級別。

But we do expect the new automated lines to be landing and starting out at the Gigafactory in just the next -- well, the landing in sight within this quarter.

但我們確實預計新的自動化生產線將在下一個著陸並在 Gigafactory 開始 - 好吧，在本季度內著陸。

Yes, expect the new automated lines to arrive next month, in March.

是的，預計新的自動化生產線將在下個月 3 月到達。

And then it's already -- it's been -- it's working in Germany so that's going to tracked -- going to be disassembled, brought out to the Gigafactory and reassembled and then go into operation at the Gigafactory.

然後它已經 - 它一直 - 它在德國工作，因此將被跟踪 - 將被拆卸，帶到 Gigafactory 並重新組裝，然後在 Gigafactory 投入運行。

It's not of question whether it works or not.

它是否有效是沒有問題的。

It's just a question of disassembly, transport and reassembly.

這只是拆卸、運輸和重新組裝的問題。

So that's kind of -- yes.

所以這有點——是的。

So we expect to alleviate that constraint.

因此，我們希望減輕這種限制。

That -- with alleviating that constraint, that's what gets us to the roughly 2,000 to 2,500 unit per week production rate.

那——通過減輕這種限制，這就是使我們達到每周大約 2,000 到 2,500 個單位的生產率的原因。

The next constraint would be material conveyance at our Fremont vehicle plant.

下一個限制是我們弗里蒙特汽車廠的材料運輸。

And that's a very sophisticated automated parts conveyance system.

這是一個非常複雜的自動化零件輸送系統。

We think it's probably the most sophisticated in the world or at least we're not aware of one that is more so.

我們認為它可能是世界上最複雜的，或者至少我們不知道有一個更複雜。

And the software for that is quite complex.

用於此的軟件非常複雜。

So that would be the next constraint on production to get to 5,000, is the conveyance system in Fremont.

所以這將是生產達到 5,000 輛的下一個限制因素，那就是弗里蒙特的運輸系統。

So that also appears to be on track.

因此，這似乎也步入正軌。

So we feel like the error bars around the unit volume predictions are getting smaller with each passing week.

因此，我們覺得單位體積預測的誤差線每週都在變小。

And our next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

I also want to add my congrats for the launch yesterday.

我還想對昨天的發布表示祝賀。

The twin Falcon landing was probably the sickest thing I've ever seen in my life.

雙獵鷹登陸可能是我這輩子見過的最噁心的事情。

First question is for Deepak.

第一個問題是給迪帕克的。

Deepak, a question for you.

迪帕克，問你一個問題。

Given the negative trade cycle, your negative working cap, some of the modeling analysts are doing kind of simulating when you get to 2,500 or 5,000 or maybe somewhere in between that, that some of the arrangements you made with your suppliers who have been very helpful, that you might temporarily run enough negative working cap to even have operating cash flow exceed CapEx.

鑑於負貿易週期，負工作上限，一些建模分析師正在模擬當您達到 2,500 或 5,000 或介於兩者之間時，您與非常有幫助的供應商所做的一些安排，您可能會暫時運行足夠的負營運上限，甚至使運營現金流量超過資本支出。

Is that something that's possible?

那是可能的嗎？

Or again, I know there's execution behind that clearly, but is that something out of the question or barely even?

或者，我清楚地知道這背後有執行力，但這是不可能的，還是幾乎沒有？

I think we got to look at it from a full quarter perspective.

我認為我們必須從一個完整的季度角度來看待它。

The negative working cycle is amplified by the rate at which we ramp our production.

消極的工作週期被我們提高產量的速度放大了。

Given our present plans of getting to 5,000 by end of Q2, it's a fairly gradual -- it's exponential from where we started, but it's not going to create a situation where our cash flow from operations will exceed CapEx.

鑑於我們目前計劃在第二季度末達到 5,000 個，這是一個相當漸進的過程——從我們開始的地方開始呈指數增長，但不會造成我們的運營現金流超過資本支出的情況。

And just as a follow-up, Elon, your kind of compensation -- long-term compensation plan obviously got a lot of attention and raised some questions, however long term from now, on succession.

作為後續行動，埃隆，你的薪酬——長期薪酬計劃顯然受到了很多關注，並提出了一些關於繼任問題的問題，無論從現在開始的時間有多長。

Just want to ask, do you see your successor as CEO of Tesla someone currently within the company right now or from outside the company?

只是想問一下，你認為你的繼任者是特斯拉CEO，現在是公司內部的人，還是公司外部的人？

Kind of how do you see that?

你怎麼看？

I mean, there's no actual search going on or there's not even -- or passive -- active or passive search going on for a new CEO because I expect to remain CEO for the foreseeable future.

我的意思是，沒有進行實際的搜索，或者甚至沒有——或被動地——主動或被動地尋找新的 CEO，因為我希望在可預見的未來繼續擔任 CEO。

But at some point, if there's somebody really spectacular inside or outside the company who could take on that role and who'd want to have that title and that role, that would be fine with me.

但在某些時候，如果公司內部或外部有一個非常出色的人可以擔任那個角色並且想要擁有那個頭銜和那個角色，那對我來說很好。

And I would focus on product development, which is designing and engineering, which is what I like doing best.

我會專注於產品開發，即設計和工程，這是我最喜歡做的事情。

So -- but there are no plans to make change at the time.

所以——但當時沒有做出改變的計劃。

Our next question comes from the line of Tyler Frank with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tyler Frank 與 Baird 的對話。

I guess, Elon, bigger picture and looking out a few years, you had mentioned a couple of quarters ago that the 1 million car target for 2020 was still there and that you would need to introduce the Model Y by then.

我猜，埃隆，從大局來看，幾年前你曾提到過，2020 年 100 萬輛汽車的目標仍然存在，屆時你將需要推出 Model Y。

How do we connect from where we are today to getting to 1 million units a year?

我們如何從今天的位置連接到每年達到 100 萬台？

And what should we look for this year in terms of ramping production or building a facility for the Model Y?

今年我們應該在增加產量或為 Model Y 建造設施方面尋找什麼？

We are going to make some capital investments towards the end of this year related to Model Y. I don't exactly count on those, but I think we've got a good plan.

我們將在今年年底前進行一些與 Model Y 相關的資本投資。我並不完全指望這些，但我認為我們有一個很好的計劃。

I'm pretty excited about the -- how we're designing Model Y. It's really taking a lot of lessons learned from Model 3 and saying how do we design this thing to be easier to manufacture instead of how to manufacture, more difficult really.

我對我們如何設計 Model Y 感到非常興奮。它真的從 Model 3 中吸取了很多教訓，並說我們如何設計這個東西更容易製造而不是如何製造，真的更難.

So I think it's going to be -- I really think it's going to be pretty great and pretty scalable for Model Y. But we are going to, as you suspect, need to make some capital investments in the second half of this year, really late, late Q3, Q4 for Model Y. And -- but I think we want to wait until -- wait probably 3 to 6 months before announcing any further plans on production location and the details associated with that.

所以我認為它會是——我真的認為它對於 Model Y 來說會非常棒並且非常可擴展。但是正如你所懷疑的那樣，我們將需要在今年下半年進行一些資本投資，真的Model Y 的第三季度末、第四季度末。而且——但我認為我們要等到——大概等 3 到 6 個月，然後再宣布有關生產地點的任何進一步計劃以及與此相關的細節。

Is that 1 million unit target still in play?

100 萬單位的目標還在發揮作用嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Perfect.

完美的。

And then just one quick follow-up.

然後只是一個快速的跟進。

How should we think about the Tesla Semi and investments needed there?

我們應該如何看待 Tesla Semi 以及那裡需要的投資？

And what are you guys thinking you can hit from an annual run rate in the next, let's say, 2 to 4 years?

你們認為在接下來的 2 到 4 年內，您可以從年度運行率中達到什麼水平？

Well, a great difference between 2 and 4 years.

好吧，2年和4年之間的差異很大。

Tesla -- I've said I think a few years ago, I think Tesla is going to kind of grow at an average of roughly 50% a year, which is a crazy average growth rate for a company manufacturing complex products at scale.

特斯拉——我在幾年前說過，我認為特斯拉將以平均每年大約 50% 的速度增長，對於一家大規模生產複雜產品的公司來說，這是一個瘋狂的平均增長率。

So 2 versus 4 is a huge difference.

所以 2 對 4 是一個巨大的差異。

But if you say like -- and it's much easier to predict, especially, this production, because they look like an S curve, where you have an initial exponential, which -- the exponential appears -- it seems people naturally tends to extrapolate on a straight-line basis.

但是，如果你說喜歡 - 而且更容易預測，尤其是這個生產，因為它們看起來像一條 S 曲線，你有一個初始指數，它 - 指數出現 - 似乎人們自然傾向於推斷直線基礎。

An exponential always appears -- the predictions are conservative in the beginning, and then the exponential takes off, and then it becomes linear, and then it becomes logarithmic.

指數總是出現——預測一開始是保守的，然後指數起飛，然後變成線性，然後變成對數。

So it's easier to predict -- far easier to predict the endpoint or the steady state of the S-curve than anywhere on that exponential -- or log curve.

所以它更容易預測——比指數曲線或對數曲線上的任何地方都更容易預測 S 曲線的端點或穩態。

So if you say 4 years, I think 100,000 units a year is a reasonable expectation.

所以如果你說 4 年，我認為每年 100,000 台是一個合理的預期。

Maybe more but that's the right -- roughly the right number, I think.

也許更多，但這是正確的——我認為大致是正確的數字。

For the Tesla Semi?

對於特斯拉半？

Yes.

是的。

I think we might be able to exceed the specs that we unveiled last year too, which is pretty exciting.

我認為我們也許能夠超越我們去年公佈的規格，這非常令人興奮。

I know there's, like, speculation that we might not meet them, but I think we're going to exceed them.

我知道有人猜測我們可能不會遇到他們，但我認為我們會超越他們。

So -- and I made this comment before.

所以——我之前發表過這個評論。

It's like -- feels like I gloss over these comments, but I really take these to heart.

就像——感覺就像我掩蓋了這些評論，但我真的把這些放在心上。

The competitive strength of Tesla long term is not going to be the car.

特斯拉長期的競爭實力不會是汽車。

It's going to be the factory.

這將是工廠。

We're going to productize the factory.

我們要對工廠進行產品化。

And really this is the lesson that is kind of obvious in history because the Model T wasn't a product.

這確實是歷史上顯而易見的教訓，因為 T 型車不是產品。

It was River Rouge.

是胭脂河。

The Model T is a very simple car.

T 型車是一款非常簡單的汽車。

Anybody could have made that car, but not anyone could make River Rouge.

任何人都可以造出那輛車，但沒有人可以造出 River Rouge。

And that's really what would be Tesla's long-term competitive advantage.

這就是特斯拉的長期競爭優勢。

We'll have a great lineup of great products, great design, great engineering the product itself in the vehicles and autonomy and all that sort of stuff.

我們將擁有一系列出色的產品、出色的設計、出色的車輛和自動駕駛產品本身的工程設計以及所有類似的東西。

But the factory is going to be the product that has the long-term sustained competitive advantage, in my opinion.

但在我看來，工廠將成為具有長期持續競爭優勢的產品。

And our next question comes from the line of David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的大衛坦貝里諾。

Elon, on your autonomous vehicle strategy, why do you believe that your current hardware set of only camera plus radar is going to be able to get you to fully validated autonomous vehicle system?

Elon，關於您的自動駕駛汽車戰略，您為什麼認為您當前的只有攝像頭和雷達的硬件集能夠讓您獲得完全驗證的自動駕駛汽車系統？

Most every competitor noted that they need the redundancy from LIDAR hardware given the robustness of the 3D point cloud and the data it's generated.

大多數競爭對手都指出，鑑於 3D 點雲的穩健性及其生成的數據，他們需要激光雷達硬件的冗餘。

What are they missing in their software stack and their algorithms that Tesla's able to obtain from just a camera plus radar?

他們在他們的軟件堆棧和算法中缺少什麼特斯拉能夠從相機和雷達中獲得的東西？

Further, what would be your response if the regulatory bodies require that level of redundancy and that's really needed from an incremental LIDAR hardware?

此外，如果監管機構需要這種級別的冗餘並且增量激光雷達硬件確實需要這種冗餘，您會怎麼做？

Yes.

是的。

Well, first of all, I should say there's actually a 3-sensor systems test.

嗯，首先，我應該說實際上有一個 3 傳感器系統測試。

There are cameras, redundant forward cameras.

有攝像頭，冗餘的前置攝像頭。

There are -- there's the forward radar, and there's -- there are the ultrasonics for near field.

有 - 有前向雷達，還有 - 有用於近場的超聲波。

So a third is also -- a third set is also important for near field stuff just as it is for humans.

所以第三組也是——第三組對於近場的東西也很重要，就像對人類一樣。

But I think it's pretty obvious that the road system is geared towards passive optical.

但我認為很明顯，道路系統是面向無源光學的。

We have to solve passive optical image recognition extremely well in order to be able to drive in any given environment and a changing environment.

我們必須非常好地解決被動光學圖像識別，以便能夠在任何給定環境和不斷變化的環境中駕駛。

We must solve passive optical image recognition.

我們必須解決被動光學圖像識別。

We must solve it extremely well.

我們必須非常好地解決它。

At the point at which we have solved it extremely well, what is the point in having active optical, meaning LIDAR, which does not -- which cannot read signs?

在我們已經很好地解決了這個問題的時候，有什麼是有源光學的，意思是激光雷達，它沒有——它不能讀取標誌？

It's just giving you -- in my view, it is a crutch that will drive companies to a local maximum, that we'll find very difficult to get out of.

它只是給了你——在我看來，它是一個可以推動公司達到局部最大值的拐杖，我們會發現很難擺脫它。

If you take the hard path of a sophisticated neural net that's capable of advanced image recognition, then I think you'll achieve the goal maximum.

如果您採用能夠進行高級圖像識別的複雜神經網絡的艱難路徑，那麼我認為您將最大程度地實現目標。

And we combine that with increasingly sophisticated radar, and if you're going to pick active photon generator, doing so in 400 to 700-nanometer wavelength is pretty silly since you're getting that passively.

我們將它與日益複雜的雷達結合起來，如果你要選擇有源光子發生器，那麼在 400 到 700 納米波長范圍內這樣做是非常愚蠢的，因為你是被動地得到它。

You would want your active photon generation in the radar frequencies of approximately around 4 millimeters because that is occlusion penetrating.

您會希望在大約 4 毫米左右的雷達頻率中生成有源光子，因為這是穿透性的。

And you can essentially see through snow or rain, dust, fog, anything.

你基本上可以看穿雪或雨、灰塵、霧，任何東西。

So it's just -- I find it quite puzzling that companies would choose to do an active photon system in the wrong wavelength.

所以這只是 - 我發現公司會選擇在錯誤的波長上做一個有源光子系統，這很令人費解。

They're going to get a whole bunch of expensive equipment, most of which makes the car sort of expensive, ugly and unnecessary, and I think they will find themselves at a competitive disadvantage.

他們將獲得一大堆昂貴的設備，其中大部分使汽車變得昂貴、醜陋和不必要，我認為他們會發現自己處於競爭劣勢。

Now perhaps I am wrong, in which case I'll look like a fool.

現在也許我錯了，在這種情況下，我會看起來像個傻瓜。

But I am quite certain that I'm not.

但我很確定我不是。

Okay.

好的。

And as a follow-up, if I may, can we talk about the trajectory for the Model S and X margins?

作為後續，如果可以的話，我們能否談談 Model S 和 X 利潤率的軌跡？

3Q '17, I think the company was saying you're in the low 20% range.

17 年第 3 季度，我認為公司說您處於 20% 的低位範圍內。

I think you took another step down per the report today, so I'm assuming it's probably at 20%.

我認為你今天根據報告又降低了一步，所以我假設它可能是 20%。

What's the path to recovery from here?

從這裡恢復的路徑是什麼？

And can you frame us through how you're going to get to that margin expansion?

你能告訴我們你將如何實現利潤率擴張嗎？

We feel very good about the recovery of S and X gross margin to -- in 2018 to a level which we have seen in the past.

我們對 S 和 X 毛利率在 2018 年恢復到我們過去看到的水平感到非常滿意。

And it's a combination of a variety of things.

它是多種事物的組合。

It's increasing the mix of the larger batteries, the higher option content.

它增加了更大電池的組合，更高的選項內容。

And then also we have a very good and a robust manufacturing cost reduction road map.

然後我們也有一個非常好的和強大的製造成本降低路線圖。

We will achieve a lot of manufacturing efficiencies which continue to occur on S and X, so we feel really good about it.

我們將實現在 S 和 X 上繼續發生的大量製造效率，所以我們對此感覺非常好。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, we -- our internal plan, whether we meet this or not, I don't know.

我的意思是，我們——我們的內部計劃，我們是否滿足這個，我不知道。

But I think we will.

但我認為我們會的。

Our internal plan calls for turnaround of 30% to 32% cash gross margin on S and X by the end of the year and probably 25%, maybe 26% GAAP gross margin on S and X towards the end of this year.

我們的內部計劃要求在今年年底前將 S 和 X 的現金毛利率提高 30% 至 32%，並在今年年底前將 S 和 X 的 GAAP 毛利率可能達到 25% 或 26%。

And then Model 3, maybe not by the end of this year but not far behind it.

然後是 Model 3，可能不會到今年年底，但也不會落後太多。

Right.

正確的。

And just as Elon said, internal road map and internal plans, things sometimes get delayed, they don't work out exactly.

正如埃隆所說，內部路線圖和內部計劃，事情有時會被推遲，它們並不完全有效。

But I think you get a sense that we feel really good about the improvement that's ahead.

但我想你會感覺到我們對未來的改進感覺非常好。

Yes, we have a clear path to that goal.

是的，我們有一條通往該目標的明確道路。

Our next question comes from the line of Romit Shah with Nomura.

我們的下一個問題來自野村的 Romit Shah。

It sounds like from the letter that you could do more than 100k S and X in '18 but you're constrained by the 18650s.

從這封信中聽起來你可以在 18 年做超過 100k S 和 X，但你受到 18650 年代的限制。

And I'm just curious, what would it take to see the 2170 cells in these vehicles?

我只是很好奇，在這些車輛中看到 2170 電池需要什麼？

Well, this is J.B. It's something we've, of course, contemplated, but it's quite a large change to the architecture of the module and the battery pack overall.

嗯，這就是 J.B。當然，這是我們已經考慮過的，但這對模塊的架構和整個電池組來說是一個相當大的變化。

And while the 18650 supply is somewhat of a cap at about 100k units per year, even just a few months ago, we didn't feel that expanding and making some long-term bets on expanding that supply with Panasonic in Japan was really the right risk.

雖然 18650 的供應量在某種程度上是每年 10 萬台左右的上限，但就在幾個月前，我們並不認為與松下在日本擴大供應並進行一些長期押注真的是正確的風險。

It's something we could consider, but right now, we're pretty happy with that balance, and it matches our other production capabilities and our other investments.

這是我們可以考慮的事情，但現在，我們對這種平衡非常滿意，它與我們的其他生產能力和其他投資相匹配。

Yes, it's also like -- for any given complex manufactured item, in order to go past the target capacity, you really need to move the whole supply chain in cadence.

是的，這也就像——對於任何給定的複雜製造項目，為了超過目標產能，你真的需要有節奏地移動整個供應鏈。

So you really have to then shift everything to say, okay, if you want to make 20% more S and X, everyone has to make 20% more, there have to be investments in new lines or it's going to require overtime, which negatively affects gross margins.

所以你真的必須改變一切說，好吧，如果你想多賺 20% 的 S 和 X，每個人都必須多賺 20%，必須對新生產線進行投資，否則需要加班，這會產生負面影響影響毛利率。

We [didn't] design the manufacturing machine for it [to break], and then you'd have to redesign the machine or go redline.

我們 [沒有] 為它 [打破] 設計製造機器，然後你必須重新設計機器或紅線。

And so I think we feel pretty good about the 100k a year for S and X, and we want to focus on just improving the efficiency of production and the gross margin of the group.

所以我認為我們對 S 和 X 每年 10 萬的產量感覺很好，我們希望專注於提高生產效率和集團的毛利率。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, makes sense...

是的，有道理...

[Keeping, of course,] the Model 3. I mean, that's really where the majority of the effort is.

[當然，保留] Model 3。我的意思是，這確實是大部分努力所在。

Okay.

好的。

The other thing you guys mentioned was upcoming autonomous coast-to-coast drive, which we're really looking forward to.

你們提到的另一件事是即將到來的自動海岸到海岸驅動，我們非常期待。

Could you give a little bit more color on time frame, when something like that would be available for customers?

您能否在時間範圍內提供更多顏色，什麼時候可以為客戶提供類似的東西？

Yes.

是的。

So we actually -- I've been meaning to address this but -- because obviously, I missed the mark on that front.

所以我們實際上 - 我一直想解決這個問題，但是 - 因為很明顯，我錯過了這方面的標記。

Our focus is very much on Model 3 production, so everything else kind of took a second place to that.

我們非常關注 Model 3 的生產，所以其他的一切都排在第二位。

But the -- we could have done the coast-to-coast drive, but it would have required too much specialized code to effectively game it or make it somewhat brittle in that it would work for one particular route but not be a general solution.

但是——我們本可以完成從海岸到海岸的駕駛，但它需要太多專門的代碼才能有效地玩弄它，或者讓它有點脆弱，因為它適用於一條特定的路線，但不是通用的解決方案。

So [although] you would be able to repeat it, but just not any other route, which is not really a true solution.

所以[雖然]你可以重複它，但不能重複任何其他路線，這並不是真正的解決方案。

I am pretty excited about how much progress we're making on the neural net front.

我對我們在神經網絡前沿取得的進步感到非常興奮。

And it's a little -- it's also one of the things that's kind of exponential, where the progress doesn't seem like -- it doesn't seem like much progress, it doesn't seem like much progress, then suddenly, wow.

它有點——這也是一種指數級的事情，進展似乎不大——似乎沒有太大進展，似乎沒有太大進展，然後突然，哇。

That's been my observation generally with AI stuff.

這是我對人工智能的普遍觀察。

And you look at, say, something like what people at DeepMind did with AlphaGo.

你看看，比如說，DeepMind 的人對 AlphaGo 所做的事情。

It went from not being able to beat even a pretty good Go player to something that could beat the European champion, then it could beat the world champion, then it could thrash the world champion, then it could thrash everyone simultaneously.

從打不過圍棋好手，到打得過歐洲冠軍，再打過世界冠軍，再打過世界冠軍，再打過所有人。

Then they made AlphaZero, which could thrash AlphaGo, where it's just winning against itself, was better than all the world's human experts.

然後他們製造了 AlphaZero，它可以擊敗 AlphaGo，它只是在戰勝自己，比世界上所有的人類專家都要好。

It's kind of going to be like that for self-driving.

對於自動駕駛來說，這有點像這樣。

It will seem like, well, this is a lame driver, lame driver, like, okay, that's a pretty good driver, like, holy cow, that driver is good.

看起來，嗯，這是一個跛腳的司機，跛腳的司機，就像，好吧，那是一個很好的司機，就像，天哪，那個司機很好。

It will be like that.

會是這樣。

I mean, timing-wise, I think we can probably do a coast-to-coast drive in 3 months, 6 months at the upside.

我的意思是，在時間方面，我認為我們可能會在 3 個月內完成一次從海岸到海岸的駕駛，而上行時間為 6 個月。

And then is it available for customers immediately?

然後它可以立即提供給客戶嗎？

Or is there a lag?

還是有滯後？

Yes, that would be something that's available for customers.

是的，這將是可供客戶使用的東西。

[We currently have done it, do tests on it].

[我們目前已經完成，對其進行測試]。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

As you put solutions in place one by one to unclog Model 3 production bottlenecks in Fremont or at the battery module line in Reno, are you finding that the ultimate solution is more or less expensive to implement than your original plans, which called for a 25% gross margin on the vehicle?

當您一一制定解決方案以疏通弗里蒙特或雷諾電池模塊生產線的 Model 3 生產瓶頸時，您是否發現最終解決方案的實施成本比您最初的計劃要高或低，原計劃需要 25車輛毛利率%？

Do you feel any differently now about the cost to manufacture the Model 3 or its gross margin potential versus prior to the start of production last July?

與去年 7 月開始生產之前相比，您現在對 Model 3 的製造成本或其毛利率潛力有什麼不同的看法嗎？

I think we feel good about that.

我認為我們對此感覺良好。

I think we're probably able to exceed that next year, probably.

我認為我們明年可能會超過這個數字。

Like, our understanding of manufacturing has improved dramatically.

就像，我們對製造業的理解有了很大的提高。

We can think of a huge number of ways to make it far better, far more efficient.

我們可以想出很多方法來讓它變得更好、更高效。

I'm really excited about how much we're learning about manufacturing.

我對我們對製造業的了解感到非常興奮。

That's why I said I think the long-term strength of Tesla will be the manufacturing plant, essentially productizing the Gigafactory, which is like the world's biggest product basically, like, make a nuclear aircraft carrier look pretty small by comparison.

這就是為什麼我說我認為特斯拉的長期實力將是製造工廠，本質上是生產Gigafactory，這就像世界上最大的產品，基本上就像，讓一艘核航母相比之下看起來很小。

Yes.

是的。

Maybe just to add to that, I mean, the products bill of materials cost and the embedded labor cost is -- I think, that's where there's opportunities.

也許只是補充一下，我的意思是，產品材料成本和嵌入式勞動力成本是 - 我認為，這就是機會所在。

And we are simplifying and we're finding ways to improve the design incrementally as we go through the ramp.

我們正在簡化，我們正在尋找方法在我們通過坡道時逐步改進設計。

If there is some small increases in CapEx, that doesn't directly -- it will be overwhelmed by the improvements in simplicity and some cost savings in the product itself.

如果資本支出有一些小幅增長，那並不是直接的——它將被產品本身的簡單性改進和一些成本節約所壓倒。

Yes, I think the bottom line is we feel really optimistic about the long-term potential for gross margin on Model 3 and especially on Model Y.

是的，我認為底線是我們對 Model 3 尤其是 Model Y 的長期毛利率潛力感到非常樂觀。

Yes.

是的。

We haven't seen anything that particularly changes our view.

我們還沒有看到任何特別改變我們觀點的事情。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just for -- yes, and then for my follow-up.

然後只是為了——是的，然後是我的後續行動。

I see the guidance in the letter about the quarterly operating income turning positive at some point in 2018.

我看到信中關於季度營業收入在 2018 年某個時候轉為正數的指導。

That's great.

那太棒了。

I'm just curious what your thoughts are with regard to when you also might generate free cash flow.

我只是好奇您對何時也可能產生自由現金流的想法。

Is that less of a medium-term focus as you prefer to invest operating cash flows from the Model 3 into the Semi truck, Roadster and Model Y?

由於您更願意將 Model 3 的運營現金流投資於 Semi 卡車、Roadster 和 Model Y，因此這不是一個中期關注點嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We could be positive cash flow, I think pretty significant positive cash flow probably in like third quarter, which is like 4, 5 months from now.

我們可能是正現金流，我認為可能在第三季度，也就是從現在開始的 4、5 個月後出現相當大的正現金流。

But we think it makes sense to invest in Model Y and -- yes.

但我們認為投資 Model Y 是有意義的，而且——是的。

Future growth of our energy products, Model 3, future growth of that so...

我們能源產品的未來增長，Model 3，未來的增長……

Yes, the opportunities we see are -- we see really good opportunities there.

是的，我們看到的機會是——我們在那裡看到了非常好的機會。

Yes.

是的。

It makes good business case and business sense to invest.

投資具有良好的商業案例和商業意義。

Yes.

是的。

Silver bullets for me, in fact, can't emphasize enough.

銀彈對我來說，事實上，怎麼強調都不夠。

And what I find sort of interesting is that our competitors -- well, the car industry thinks they're really good at manufacturing.

我覺得有趣的是我們的競爭對手——嗯，汽車行業認為他們真的很擅長製造。

And they're actually -- they are quite good at manufacturing, but they just don't realize just how much potential there is for improvement.

他們實際上——他們非常擅長製造，但他們只是沒有意識到有多大的改進潛力。

It's way more than they think.

這比他們想像的要多得多。

I went through this math, I think, on a prior earnings call, but like it sounds like some of the -- the fastest car factories produce a car maybe every 25 seconds.

我認為，在之前的財報電話會議上，我通過了這個數學計算，但聽起來像是一些——最快的汽車工廠可能每 25 秒生產一輛汽車。

It sounds fast.

聽起來很快。

But if you think about a 5-meter long car including gap, a 4.5-meter car with 0.5 meter gap or something, that's only 0.2 meters per second.

但是如果你想想一輛5米長的車包括差距，一輛4.5米的車有0.5米的差距什麼的，那也只有0.2米每秒。

Like grandma with a walker can beat the speed of the fastest production line on earth.

就像奶奶帶著助行器可以超越地球上最快的生產線的速度。

So really not that fast.

所以真的沒那麼快。

Walking speed is 1 meter per second, so 5x faster than the fastest production line on earth.

行走速度為每秒 1 米，比地球上最快的生產線快 5 倍。

Why?

為什麼？

It should at least be jogging speed.

至少應該是慢跑速度。

I mean, in the limit, companies should start caring about the aero drag in the factory, which -- that's maybe around 20 or 30 miles an hour or "30 kilometers an hour, 40 kilometers an hour." It's like stuff should be moving at that speed.

我的意思是，在極限情況下，公司應該開始關心工廠的空氣阻力，這可能是每小時 20 或 30 英里或“每小時 30 公里，每小時 40 公里”。好像東西應該以這樣的速度移動。

And our next question comes from the line of Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Toni Sacconaghi 和 Bernstein 的觀點。

You commented in the shareholder letter that capital expenditures for 2018 were expected to be a bit higher than 2017.

您在股東信中評論說，預計 2018 年的資本支出將略高於 2017 年。

I'm wondering if you could tell us what exactly is in that, call it, roughly $3.5 billion.

我想知道你能不能告訴我們這到底是什麼，稱之為，大約 35 億美元。

Are you going to get to full like 10,000 car per week capacity?

您是否要達到每週 10,000 輛汽車的產能？

Is that in the $3.5 billion?

是在 35 億美元中嗎？

What will Gigafactory production be?

Gigafactory 的生產將是什麼？

And in the slightly more than $3.4 billion, is that also including the investments, Elon, that you mentioned on Model Y?

在略多於 34 億美元的資金中，是否還包括您在 Model Y 上提到的 Elon 的投資？

So where exactly is this level of capital spending going to take us in 2018?

那麼，2018 年這種水平的資本支出究竟會帶我們去哪裡呢？

And I have a follow-up, please.

我有一個跟進，拜託。

Sure, I mean, our biggest -- at a very high-level sort of breakdown, our biggest investment is obviously in the Model 3. And that includes completion of the payments that we still have to make on the capacity we are putting in place now as well as significant investment in -- or required upfront for the next phase of Model 3 production to 10,000-plus per week.

當然，我的意思是，我們最大的——在一個非常高層次的故障中，我們最大的投資顯然是在 Model 3 上。這包括完成我們仍然必須對我們正在實施的產能進行的支付現在，以及對下一階段 Model 3 生產的大量投資或前期需要達到每週 10,000 多輛。

So that's, I would say, overall more than 50%, really more than 50% is Model 3. And the rest is all the many other things we talked about, whether it's energy storage, whether it's...

所以，我想說，總體上超過 50%，真的超過 50% 是 Model 3。剩下的就是我們談到的許多其他事情，無論是儲能，還是......

Primarily Y and energy storage.

主要是 Y 和儲能。

Right.

正確的。

And then our infrastructure spend, superchargers, stores, service centers.

然後是我們的基礎設施支出、增壓器、商店、服務中心。

We want to significantly increase the service capacity, want to significantly increase our supercharging capacity.

我們想顯著增加服務能力，想顯著增加我們的增壓能力。

So all of those pieces then add up to the total spend.

因此，所有這些部分加起來就是總支出。

Yes.

是的。

The -- just to give you some sort of flavor for our optimism on Model Y, I think.

我認為，這只是為了讓您對我們對 Model Y 的樂觀態度有所了解。

Model Y, I think, we might aim for something like maybe capacity of 1 million units a year, something like that, just for Model Y alone.

我認為，Model Y 的目標可能是每年 100 萬輛的產能，僅針對 Model Y。

And I think we'll be able to do that for CapEx that is less than the Model 3 CapEx at the $0.5 million.

而且我認為我們將能夠為低於 50 萬美元的 Model 3 資本支出的資本支出做到這一點。

So probably -- I think we can probably improve CapEx by a factor of 2. It's not a promise, but that's my gut feel on Model Y CapEx, just to give you a flavor for my level of optimism on improvements on the manufacturing front.

所以可能 - 我認為我們可以將資本支出提高 2 倍。這不是一個承諾，但這是我對 Y 型資本支出的直覺，只是為了讓您了解我對製造方面改進的樂觀程度。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And just so is the $3.5 billion and the greater than 50% to Model 3, is that going to complete all the required equipment to get us to 10,000 a week at the end of the year?

35 億美元和超過 50% 的 Model 3 也是如此，這是否會完成所有必需的設備，讓我們在年底達到每週 10,000 輛？

Or are we still going to have incremental capital expenditures?

還是我們仍將增加資本支出？

And then separately, on my second question around Model 3 gross margins, I think you had said that you expected them to be breakeven this quarter.

然後另外，關於我關於 Model 3 毛利率的第二個問題，我認為你曾說過你預計它們將在本季度實現盈虧平衡。

Obviously, volume was lower, and so you didn't get there.

顯然，音量較低，所以你沒有到達那裡。

But for next quarter, you're suggesting that they're going to be negative again despite the fact that I think Q1 volumes are much higher than what you would have anticipated originally for Q4 when you thought that margins would be breakeven.

但是對於下個季度，儘管我認為第一季度的銷量遠高於您最初對第四季度的預期，但您認為它們將再次出現負值，當時您認為利潤率將達到收支平衡。

So can you help reconcile the apparent enthusiasm you have about the gross margin trajectory with the fact that your guidance around gross margins in the near term actually appears more cautious than it was guided at the time?

那麼，您能否幫助調和您對毛利率軌蹟的明顯熱情與您在短期內對毛利率的指導實際上似乎比當時的指導更加謹慎這一事實？

Can you hear us?

你能聽見我們嗎？

Yes, I can hear you.

是的，我能聽到你的聲音。

Yes, no worries.

是的，不用擔心。

Yes, to sort of finish off your first part of the question, no, we will still have further investments in the 10,000 per week capacity of the Model 3 happening next year as all of that will be concluded next year.

是的，為了完成你問題的第一部分，不，我們仍將在明年對 Model 3 的每週 10,000 輛產能進行進一步投資，因為所有這些都將在明年完成。

There's always a lag in our cash outflow while we continue to test the equipment and verify it.

在我們繼續測試設備並進行驗證時，我們的現金流出總是存在滯後。

So that'll continue in '18 -- in '19.

所以這將在 18 年 - 19 年繼續。

And then in terms of the Model 3 gross margins, our expectations earlier were of a much steeper ramp than what we are projecting here.

然後就 Model 3 的毛利率而言，我們之前的預期比我們在這裡預測的要陡峭得多。

We were targeting, as you well know at one point, hitting 5,000 by the end of '17.

眾所周知，我們的目標是到 17 年底達到 5,000 個。

And now that's 6 months later.

而現在是 6 個月後。

So -- but that's slower ramp.

所以 - 但這是較慢的斜坡。

We just know we'll have inefficiencies.

我們只知道我們會效率低下。

We have the full capacity, so the depreciation of all that equipment and the operating costs are hitting while we're not producing as many cars.

我們擁有全部產能，因此在我們沒有生產那麼多汽車的同時，所有設備的折舊和運營成本都在受到打擊。

It's actually pretty simple.

其實很簡單。

And it's only temporary.

這只是暫時的。

It doesn't imply anything fundamental.

這並不意味著任何基本的東西。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

The problem is like when you've got a machine where most of that machine, I mean that overall production and supply chain machine, is at a 5,000-unit capacity but then 10% or 15% of it isn't, then you got this massive load on a small -- on a way smaller production volume.

問題是當你有一台機器時，其中大部分機器，我的意思是整個生產和供應鏈機器的產能為 5,000 台，但其中 10% 或 15% 不是，那麼你得到了這種巨大的負載以較小的方式-以較小的生產量進行。

Then as that production volume -- as you fix that remaining 10% or 15% of the production machine, you're able to get to that target production, and then things improve dramatically.

然後作為生產量——當你修復剩餘的 10% 或 15% 的生產機器時，你就能夠達到目標產量，然後事情就會顯著改善。

It's sort of like having a car that's operating at a fraction of its -- let's use a gas-themed analogy.

這有點像擁有一輛以它的一小部分運行的汽車——讓我們使用一個以氣體為主題的類比。

We've got a 4-cylinder car operating on 1 cylinder.

我們有一輛 4 缸汽車在 1 缸上運行。

It's like, okay, it's not so great, one full -- or suppose it is -- machines were -- it's just like a big machine essentially, yes.

就像，好吧，它不是那麼好，一個完整的——或者假設是——機器——本質上就像一台大機器，是的。

Our next question comes from the line of Philippe Houchois with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Philippe Houchois 和 Jefferies 的觀點。

I have a slightly -- nonrelated to earnings about the electric truck, the Semi.

我有一點 - 與電動卡車 Semi 的收益無關。

In the past, Mr. Musk, you have spoken about supercapacitors as a way of generating energy and/or storing energy.

過去，馬斯克先生，您曾說過超級電容器是一種產生能量和/或儲存能量的方式。

And particularly in the application of heavy trucks, I would expect that the surge of energy in slowing down or braking in the truck would be too much for a battery to absorb.

尤其是在重型卡車的應用中，我預計卡車減速或製動時產生的能量激增對於電池來說是無法吸收的。

Are you considering supercapacitors as an application for the Semi?

您是否考慮將超級電容器作為 Semi 的應用？

Or what is your kind of general thought on that technology, and the implications to make that industrially viable?

或者您對這項技術的總體看法是什麼，以及使該技術在工業上可行的意義？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, ages ago, I was going through basically applied physics and computer science degree, a Ph.

我的意思是，很久以前，我基本上正在攻讀應用物理學和計算機科學學位，獲得博士學位。

D. in capacitors.

D. 在電容器中。

So I'm a big fan of capacitors.

所以我是電容器的忠實粉絲。

I just don't think -- I think that the lithium ion chemistry is so good at this point that capacitors will not be needed.

我只是不認為 - 我認為鋰離子化學在這一點上非常好，以至於不需要電容器。

There's a certain power-to-energy ratio, and once you have a huge amount of energy, which is needed for range, then you automatically have the power you need for absorbing -- for being able to do rapid acceleration and braking.

有一定的功率能量比，一旦你擁有大量的能量，這是續航里程所需要的，那麼你就會自動擁有吸收所需的能量——能夠進行快速加速和製動。

Yes.

是的。

It's maybe not intuitive, this is J.B., but the power-to-energy demand on the battery in the heavy truck is actually generally less than in our sort of performance vehicles.

這可能不直觀，這是 J.B.，但重型卡車對電池的能量轉換需求實際上通常低於我們的高性能車輛。

It's definitely less also, in most cases, than even the high rate of discharge energy products.

在大多數情況下，它甚至肯定低於高排放能量產品。

So as Elon said, you have a lot of energy, so you end up with a lot of power, actually more than you need.

所以正如埃隆所說，你有很多能量，所以你最終會得到很多能量，實際上比你需要的要多。

Yes.

是的。

And the way that chemistry works is that you're able to actually extract, for short periods of time, extract very high power from lithium ion cells as you sort of have ion migration right on the surface.

化學的工作方式是你能夠在短時間內從鋰離子電池中提取非常高的能量，因為你的離子遷移就在表面上。

And then the sustained power for lithium ion is conservatively less than the power over, say, the course of several seconds or minute.

然後鋰離子的持續功率保守地小於功率，例如幾秒或幾分鐘的過程。

But the several seconds power for lithium ion is remarkably good because you're essentially using ion migration from the outer surface.

但是鋰離子的幾秒鐘的能量非常好，因為你基本上是在使用從外表面的離子遷移。

It's like if you have a parking lot, all the cars in the front of the parking lot can just exit.

就像你有一個停車場，停車場前面的所有汽車都可以直接離開。

But once you start getting cars from deep in the parking lot, it takes a while for them to wind their way out.

但是，一旦您開始從停車場深處取車，它們就需要一段時間才能駛出。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brian Johnson。

Yes.

是的。

I'd like to talk, follow-up a little bit on the first question around some of the manufacturing roadblocks as well as the comment about building a machine to build the machine, which I believe was the title of a 1990 MIT book about Toyota.

我想談談，關於一些製造障礙的第一個問題以及關於製造機器以製造機器的評論，我認為這是 1990 年麻省理工學院一本關於豐田的書的標題.

Could you maybe give us some more discussion really on the managerial culture, the process level, how you would benchmark yourself, for example, against the Toyota factory, which seems to be able to launch new product in about 3 or 4 months, to ramp up?

你能不能給我們更多的討論，關於管理文化、流程水平、你如何對自己進行基準測試，例如，與豐田工廠相比，它似乎能夠在大約 3 或 4 個月內推出新產品，以提高產量向上？

Or at the other extreme, because I know Mr. Field came from there, kind of what Foxconn does in its goal to replace humans?

或者在另一個極端，因為我知道菲爾德先生來自那裡，富士康在取代人類的目標中做了什麼？

But in particular, talk about the managerial processes, not so much the robots you're putting into place.

但特別是談論管理流程，而不是你正在放置的機器人。

Well, I'm pretty sure Toyota cannot ramp up any of their products in 3 months.

好吧，我很確定豐田不會在 3 個月內推出任何產品。

In fact, I'm 100% certain about that.

事實上，我對此百分百確定。

Deepak spent many years at Ford before joining Tesla.

在加入特斯拉之前，迪帕克在福特工作了多年。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, generally, companies including Toyota take anywhere from 6 months to a year when they come up with an all new product.

我的意思是，一般來說，包括豐田在內的公司在推出全新產品時需要 6 個月到一年的時間。

And all new is like that's -- there's still -- it's not really -- the amount of technology that changes, not that much.

所有的新事物都是這樣的——仍然——不是真的——改變的技術數量，不是那麼多。

It's a major platform so it's not all new as a Model S or an X that we've done.

這是一個主要平台，所以它並不是我們所做的 Model S 或 X 的全新。

So it is longer.

所以它更長。

Right.

正確的。

There aren't fundamental new technologies.

沒有基本的新技術。

Okay.

好的。

But within that then, what are the differences though in the way you're going to be managing the factory?

但是在那之後，您管理工廠的方式有什麼不同？

The most fundamental difference is thinking about the factory as -- really as a product, as a quite vertically integrated product.

最根本的區別是將工廠視為——實際上是一種產品，一種垂直整合的產品。

It's treating it as more of an engineering and a technical problem as well instead of just a...

它更多地將其視為工程和技術問題，而不僅僅是...

Right, which is the Toyota production system.

對了，就是豐田的生產體系。

Yes -- we don't think so.

是的——我們不這麼認為。

I think that generally, it's treated more as an optimized operational problem, being extremely lean and really managing the flows of materials and the supply chain.

我認為一般來說，它更多地被視為一個優化的運營問題，非常精益並真正管理材料流和供應鏈。

They're great at it, but this is, I think, a different approach, looking at it really from deep technical lens in terms of automation, robotics, process.

他們很擅長，但我認為這是一種不同的方法，從自動化、機器人技術和流程方面的深層技術角度來看。

Yes.

是的。

Imagine like if the Model S was -- or the way you design a Model S, design your factory like it's a car.

想像一下，如果 Model S 是——或者你設計 Model S 的方式，把你的工廠設計成汽車。

You still have a lot of workers.

你還有很多工人。

You still have a lot of people.

你還有很多人。

I mean, just like with Model S, say, we have a large service organization.

我的意思是，就像 Model S 一樣，我們有一個龐大的服務組織。

There's scheduled maintenance.

有定期維護。

There are things that break.

有些事情會破裂。

There are crashes that need to be repaired.

有需要修復的崩潰。

There are technology upgrades.

有技術升級。

But you don't actually ship people with the Model S. That would be weird.

但是你實際上並沒有用 Model S 運送人。那會很奇怪。

That's not like hanging people in the car.

這不像把人掛在車裡。

So you have -- we expect that the Tesla factory has people -- a lot of people around the factory but very few people in it.

所以你有 - 我們希望特斯拉工廠有人 - 工廠周圍有很多人，但裡面的人很少。

I also think that the degree with which we have -- this is Doug.

我還認為我們擁有的學位——這是道格。

The degree with which we have product development and manufacturing development integrated is unique.

我們將產品開發和製造開發相結合的程度是獨一無二的。

And Model 3 already is a dramatically simpler car to build than the Model S. And even many people in operations who have worked their career in volume manufacturers say the Model 3 is a huge step forward from anything that they've built.

Model 3 已經是一款比 Model S 更容易製造的汽車。甚至許多在批量製造商工作的運營人員也表示，Model 3 比他們製造的任何產品都向前邁出了一大步。

So as we go forward, Elon mentioned Model Y, a big part of our manufacturing capability is going to come from how simple we make our products.

因此，在我們前進的過程中，Elon 提到 Model Y，我們製造能力的很大一部分將來自我們製造產品的簡單程度。

And how do you manage the people in the interim?

您如何在此期間管理人員？

Yes, it's actually (inaudible) thing.

是的，這實際上是（聽不清）事情。

It came from -- you have Apple and then Ford -- Ford and then Apple.

它來自——你有蘋果，然後是福特——福特，然後是蘋果。

Yes, the model at Foxconn was very different where very quick product ramps and very high scale was achieved through manual processing of also what is fundamentally a product whose simplicity is orders of magnitude below ours.

是的，富士康的模型非常不同，通過手動處理實現了非常快速的產品提升和非常高的規模，而且基本上是簡單性比我們低幾個數量級的產品。

And iPad is less complicated than our center screen in many ways.

iPad 在很多方面都沒有我們的中心屏幕那麼複雜。

So it's a very different order of magnitude in terms of the kind of product you're building, and it's extremely manual because that is the way that you have to ramp very quickly and then end the life of our product and bring up a new one.

因此，就您正在構建的產品類型而言，這是一個非常不同的數量級，並且非常手動，因為這是您必須非常快速地加速然後結束我們產品的生命並推出新產品的方式.

Actually, one thing we forgot mention is Jon McNeill, who is heading up our sales and service group, is departing the company.

實際上，我們忘記提及的一件事是，領導我們的銷售和服務團隊的 Jon McNeill 即將離開公司。

We wish him well in his future career.

我們祝愿他在未來的職業生涯中一切順利。

And going forward, I will be having the sales and service report directly to me.

展望未來，我將直接向我報告銷售和服務。

There are no plans to search for a replacement.

沒有計劃尋找替代品。

Our next question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰墨菲。

Shockingly, I want to follow up on the production of the Model 3, so it seems like that's going to remain a hot topic here.

令人震驚的是，我想跟進 Model 3 的生產，所以這似乎仍然是這裡的熱門話題。

Do you have enough experience with production of the Model 3 outside of the issues you're facing in the Gigafactory that you're confident once those problems are solved, you can get up and running?

除了在 Gigafactory 中面臨的問題之外，您是否有足夠的 Model 3 生產經驗，並且您有信心一旦解決了這些問題，您就可以啟動並運行？

Or is there sort of a contingency here that once you get that worked out, you'll be ramping up in 3 months, and there might be some other hurdles that are discovered?

或者這裡是否有某種偶然性，一旦你解決了這個問題，你將在 3 個月內加速增長，並且可能會發現其他一些障礙？

I'm just trying to understand if there are some -- any incremental kinks that might come in the production process as you ramp up.

我只是想了解是否有一些——隨著你的加速生產過程中可能出現的任何增量扭結。

And then also as we think about the step from 5,000 to 10,000, is that something that can be done inside the Fremont factory?

然後當我們考慮從 5,000 到 10,000 的步驟時，這是否可以在弗里蒙特工廠內完成？

It sounds like you're confident that your density is much higher than what even Toyota and GM were producing out there potentially on capacity.

聽起來你很有信心，你的密度遠高於豐田和通用汽車在產能上可能生產的密度。

But just curious on those 2 [things].

但只是對那 2 個 [事物] 感到好奇。

Yes.

是的。

There's really -- there are only 2 things that I'm aware of that are constraints in production of any significance: the module being the most significant; and then the parts conveyance, basically, the automated conveyance system that brings parts to the lines.

真的 - 我知道只有兩件事是生產中任何重要的限制：模塊是最重要的；然後是零件輸送，基本上是將零件帶到生產線的自動輸送系統。

The way the Fremont factory is set up is that there's actually, on the ground floor, we actually created 2 levels.

弗里蒙特工廠的設置方式是，實際上，在一樓，我們實際上創建了 2 個級別。

The bottom level is all parts conveyance, so parts coming from the warehouse where the parts are sort of automatically sorted and then are transferred through an automated conveyance system all the way to the line on the conveyance system being on the ground floor and then raised up to the line, which is actually on kind of an artificial mezzanine.

底層是所有的零件輸送，所以從倉庫出來的零件經過自動分揀，然後通過自動輸送系統一直傳送到位於一樓的輸送系統上的生產線，然後升起到線，實際上是在一種人造夾層上。

And I think we can get 10,000 vehicles a week out of Fremont without a significant -- without creating really any new buildings of significance in the existing space.

而且我認為我們可以每週從弗里蒙特獲得 10,000 輛汽車，而無需在現有空間中建造任何具有重要意義的新建築。

We will need to bring up the south paint shop, which is what we actually were using for S and X paint, and so we upgraded north paint to do S, X and 3. But with relatively small CapEx, way less than we spent on north paint, we're comfortable we can bring south paint up to achieve the approximately 600,000 vehicles per year rate to combined 100,000 S and X, 500,000 3, which would be 20% to 30% more than Toyota and GM produced in the same facilities.

我們需要建立南方油漆車間，這就是我們實際用於 S 和 X 油漆的地方，所以我們升級了北方油漆來做 S、X 和 3。但是資本支出相對較小，比我們花在上面的要少得多北方塗料，我們很滿意，我們可以將南方塗料提高到每年大約 600,000 輛的速度，達到 100,000 輛 S 和 X，500,000 輛 3，這將比豐田和通用在相同設施中生產的產量高 20% 到 30% .

And we're a lot more vertically integrated as well.

而且我們的垂直整合程度也更高。

Literally and figuratively, right?

從字面上和比喻上，對吧？

Yes, [exactly].

對，就是這樣]。

Just as we think about that though, Elon, is that sort of an asymptotic limit in that plant?

就像我們思考的那樣，埃隆，那是那種植物的漸近極限嗎？

Or based on what you're really talking about, could you get more out of that plant?

或者根據你真正在說什麼，你能從那個植物中得到更多嗎？

Or as we look at the Model Y and there's million units capacity, we're definitively looking at a new facility?

或者當我們看到 Model Y 並且有百萬輛的產能時，我們肯定在尋找一個新設施？

I'm pretty excited about the Model Y stuff, and I think I want to present that in a more cohesive fashion.

我對 Model Y 的東西感到非常興奮，我想我想以一種更有凝聚力的方式來展示它。

And it's probably not the next earnings call but call it 6 months from now.

這可能不是下一次財報電話會議，而是從現在起 6 個月後召開。

But I'm really excited about the Model Y manufacturing and the design manufacturing.

但我對 Model Y 的製造和設計製造感到非常興奮。

Like essentially, how do we design out all the pain that we're currently going through?

本質上，我們如何設計出我們目前正在經歷的所有痛苦？

We do not want to experience it again.

我們不想再經歷一次。

It's just really a lot of pain.

這真的很痛苦。

The pain level is extremely high.

疼痛程度非常高。

I mean, I was in the factory -- I was in the Gigafactory on Thanksgiving Day as were many other Tesla people.

我的意思是，我在工廠裡——感恩節那天我在 Gigafactory 和許多其他特斯拉人一樣。

It's like it's hardcore, okay?

這就像它是硬核，好嗎？

Seven days a week, don't have a vacation.

一周七天，沒有假期。

So we don't want to repeat that.

所以我們不想重複這一點。

The material flow delivery Elon mentioned as we develop very high density and velocity lines, the limit starts to become how we get material to that line.

當我們開發非常高的密度和速度線時，Elon 提到了材料流輸送，限制開始成為我們將材料輸送到該線的方式。

We'll solve that for the Model 3 line.

我們將為 Model 3 系列解決這個問題。

But eventually, within Fremont, the limit to production may be how many trucks we can get in, how quickly, of material, in order to build cars.

但最終，在弗里蒙特，生產的限制可能是我們可以使用多少輛卡車、多快的材料來製造汽車。

You'd use the Hyperloop for that.

你會為此使用超級高鐵。

Yes.

是的。

Actually, we are looking at building tunnels using The Boring Company or something because we have, for example, our seats production is at a separate building on Page.

實際上，我們正在考慮使用 The Boring Company 或其他東西來建造隧道，因為我們有，例如，我們的座椅生產是在 Page 的一個單獨的建築物中進行的。

And we have a bunch of trucks moving seats back and forth between the primary Fremont production and the seat factory.

我們有一堆卡車在弗里蒙特的主要生產工廠和座椅工廠之間來回移動座椅。

And we actually get constrained on how many trucks can we dock at the -- dock and undock at the seat factory, which is only 0.5 mile or 1 mile away from the vehicle plant.

我們實際上受到限制，我們可以停靠在座椅工廠的碼頭和卸貨數量上，座椅工廠距離車輛工廠只有 0.5 英里或 1 英里。

So it'll be pretty easy to just have a tunnel, doing automated conveyance probably from seats to the factory.

因此，只要有一條隧道，就很容易實現從座位到工廠的自動化運輸。

And there are, I mean, things we can do where we can build subsystems and then transport subsystems to Fremont.

我的意思是，我們可以做一些事情，我們可以構建子系統，然後將子系統運輸到弗里蒙特。

These things get increasingly difficult, but they're all doable.

這些事情變得越來越困難，但它們都是可行的。

But I can see a path where we get to, say, 600,000 Model 3 production and 100,000 S and X, so maybe 700k.

但我可以看到一條道路，比如，我們可以生產 600,000 輛 Model 3 和 100,000 輛 S 和 X，所以可能是 70 萬輛。

We should be like almost 50% more than GM and Toyota get out of the plant.

我們應該比通用和豐田多出近 50%。

I think that seems achievable.

我認為這似乎可以實現。

Can I just sneak one in for Deepak?

我可以偷偷溜進去給迪帕克嗎？

I apologize.

我道歉。

You did a great job of working capital in the quarter.

您在本季度的營運資金方面做得很好。

I mean, I think some of us might kind of throw stones and say it might not be repeatable.

我的意思是，我認為我們中的一些人可能會扔石頭並說它可能無法重複。

But you did it, you got the cash in the door.

但是你做到了，你在門口拿到了現金。

So it's done and it was -- you did some pretty good work here.

所以它已經完成了——你在這裡做了一些非常好的工作。

How repeatable do you think the benefit from working capital is going forward?

您認為營運資金帶來的收益在多大程度上具有可重複性？

I mean, is this really just the benefit of negative working capital and as you ramp up, you'll get this cash inflow?

我的意思是，這真的只是負營運資本的好處嗎？隨著你的增加，你會得到現金流入？

And then also as we look at the customer deposits and the ZEV credits, those were 2, I think, apparently large cash inflows.

然後，當我們查看客戶存款和 ZEV 積分時，我認為這些是 2，顯然是大量現金流入。

I mean, how repeatable do you think those are in the future as well?

我的意思是，您認為這些在未來的可重複性如何？

Yes.

是的。

Some of those are not repeatable.

其中一些是不可重複的。

We significantly reduced the finished goods inventory of S and X in Q4, which will not repeat itself going forward.

我們在第四季度顯著減少了 S 和 X 的成品庫存，這將不會重複。

And that was a huge impact to our working capital.

這對我們的營運資金產生了巨大影響。

Customer deposits may not be as well, as you pointed out.

正如您所指出的，客戶存款可能不太好。

However, the -- as the Model 3 ramp continues, the negative working capital needs for that, which essentially creates extra cash for us, will be repeatable.

然而，隨著 Model 3 的持續升溫，負營運資金需求（本質上為我們創造了額外的現金）將是可重複的。

And we'll continue to keep very tight controls on our accounts receivables and everything else we do to manage cash to make sure we are being efficient.

我們將繼續對我們的應收賬款和我們為管理現金所做的一切保持非常嚴格的控制，以確保我們的效率。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Unfortunately, we're not going to be able to get to everybody, but maybe one last question, please.

不幸的是，我們無法聯繫到每個人，但也許還有最後一個問題。

Our last question comes from the line of James Albertine with Consumer Edge.

我們的最後一個問題來自消費者邊緣的 James Albertine。

A topic that doesn't get asked, I think, a lot or as much as it should but we believe is maybe one of the reasons why the Model S and X demand remains so high after many years of production is sort of the over-the-air updateability of these vehicles.

一個沒有被問到的話題，我認為，很多或盡可能多，但我們認為這可能是 Model S 和 X 在多年生產後需求仍然如此高的原因之一，有點過分——這些車輛的空中更新能力。

I'm just wondering, it had been several quarters ago kind of pre Model 3 questions we're hearing more about software you were rolling out to existing customers.

我只是想知道，在幾個季度之前，我們聽到更多關於您向現有客戶推出的軟件的前 Model 3 問題。

Just wondering if you can give us some color on what level of uptake you're seeing.

只是想知道您是否可以就您所看到的吸收水平給我們一些顏色。

And I would imagine we're not seeing that in the upfront Model S and X margins, but potentially, there are some sort of -- those are vehicles that are earning assets for you in the future sort of customer ownership.

我想我們並沒有在 Model S 和 X 的前期利潤率中看到這一點，但可能會有一些——這些是在未來的客戶所有權中為你賺取資產的車輛。

So if you could kind of talk a little bit about what trends you're seeing there or elaborate a little bit on that, that would be helpful.

因此，如果您可以稍微談談您在那裡看到的趨勢或對此進行詳細說明，那將很有幫助。

Yes.

是的。

I think probably the biggest item is as we get the software right, people upgrading to full self-driving capability of S and X, and anything with Hardware 2, which is like the 8 cameras, more advanced op sights and improved compute capability, I think, will be capable of the full self-driving.

我認為最大的可能是當我們得到正確的軟件時，人們升級到 S 和 X 的完全自動駕駛能力，以及任何帶有硬件 2 的東西，比如 8 個攝像頭、更先進的瞄準具和改進的計算能力，我想一想，就能實現全自動駕駛。

The full self-driving -- the Hardware 2 set is also capable of doing an easy swap out of the computer.

完全自動駕駛——Hardware 2 套裝還能夠輕鬆更換計算機。

So if it turns out we need additional computing capability to meet the regulatory standards for self-driving -- particularly like we think with the current compute hardware, we can get to better than human.

因此，如果事實證明我們需要額外的計算能力來滿足自動駕駛的監管標準——尤其是我們認為使用當前的計算硬件，我們可以做得比人類更好。

But the standard for regulators may be that you need to be 5x better than human or something like that.

但監管者的標準可能是你需要比人類好 5 倍或類似的東西。

But we believe that is solvable purely with compute hardware.

但我們相信這完全可以通過計算硬件來解決。

And it would be a relatively minor expense to do that.

這樣做的費用相對較小。

So I think probably that's the biggest opportunity.

所以我認為這可能是最大的機會。

And along the same lines, not all customers pay for enhanced autopilot too, and as people hear more, we can see an uptick on that.

同樣，並非所有客戶都為增強型自動駕駛儀付費，而且隨著人們聽到的越來越多，我們可以看到這一點的上升。

But it's all around autopilot, to your point.

但就您而言，這一切都圍繞著自動駕駛儀。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

And that -- some of the sort of semiautomated driving definitely doesn't require any hardware upgrades than that $5,000, that's essentially a software product with 0 cost -- 0 marginal cost and so it's 100% margin.

而且——一些半自動駕駛絕對不需要任何硬件升級，超過 5,000 美元，這本質上是一個零成本的軟件產品——0 邊際成本，所以它是 100% 的利潤。

And then where full self-driving is available, we can probably -- that's more than a $3,000 increment.

然後在完全自動駕駛可用的情況下，我們可能會 - 增加超過 3,000 美元。

It's maybe a $5,000 increment or something like that.

這可能是5,000美元的增量或類似的東西。

Is there any data you can provide us though today in terms of the percentage of consumers that are upgrading or opting in, just to get a sense of kind of the order of magnitude that, that -- what that business could look like over time?

您今天是否可以向我們提供任何關於升級或選擇加入的消費者百分比的數據，只是為了了解某種數量級，即——隨著時間的推移，該業務會是什麼樣子？

Yes, well, not many people are opting in at this time.

是的，好吧，目前沒有多少人選擇加入。

Well, the full self-driving system doesn't actually work.

好吧，完整的自動駕駛系統實際上並不起作用。

Essentially, people are buying an option on it working in the future.

從本質上講，人們正在購買它在未來工作的選項。

So that's a very [nice] thing, [that the prices] are very low.

所以這是一件非常[好的]事情，[價格]非常低。

There's also the automation part, things that we expect to operate kind of a shared autonomy fleet, where it has like -- kind of like combination of Uber or Lyft and Airbnb, I guess, where you can opt to have your car enter a shared fleet or not, and then Tesla can also operate its own fleet in places where there's not enough people sharing their vehicles.

還有自動化部分，我們希望運營一種共享自治車隊的東西，我猜它就像 Uber 或 Lyft 和 Airbnb 的組合，你可以選擇讓你的汽車進入共享車隊與否，然後特斯拉也可以在沒有足夠人共享車輛的地方運營自己的車隊。

So that's a pretty significant opportunity.

所以這是一個非常重要的機會。

Okay.

好的。

I think that's unfortunately all the time we have today.

我認為不幸的是，我們今天所擁有的所有時間。

Appreciate all your great questions, and we look forward to talking to you in the next quarter.

感謝您提出的所有重要問題，我們期待在下個季度與您交談。

Thank you very much and goodbye.

非常感謝，再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This does conclude the program.

這確實結束了程序。

You may all disconnect.

你們都可以斷開連接。

Everyone, have a wonderful day.

大家，有一個美好的一天。