特斯拉 (TSLA) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Q1 2018 Financial Results and Q&A and Webcast Call.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎收聽特斯拉 2018 年第一季度財務業績以及問答和網絡直播電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference may be recorded.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議可能會被錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

我現在想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係高級總監 Martin Viecha 先生。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Sherri, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，雪莉，大家下午好。

Welcome to Tesla's First Quarter 2018 Q&A Webcast.

歡迎收聽特斯拉 2018 年第一季度問答網絡直播。

I'm joined today by Elon Musk, J.B. Straubel, Deepak Ahuja and Doug Field.

今天加入我的有 Elon Musk、J.B. Straubel、Deepak Ahuja 和 Doug Field。

Our Q1 results were announced at about 1 p.m.

我們的第一季度業績在下午 1 點左右公佈。

Pacific Time in the update letter we published at the same link as this webcast.

太平洋時間在我們發佈在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上的更新信中。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。

These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。

Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Before jumping into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.

在進入問答環節之前，埃隆有一些開場白。

Elon?

埃隆?

I think our letter says most of it, but I think we're going to spend extra time on Q&A, try to answer as many questions as possible.

我認為我們的信說明了大部分內容，但我認為我們將在問答上花費額外的時間，嘗試回答盡可能多的問題。

I think we should really answer -- so we're going to go as long as there are good questions to answer.

我認為我們真的應該回答——所以只要有好問題要回答，我們就會去。

The thing I'm most excited about is the rapid increase in output.

我最興奮的是產量的快速增長。

We got -- just in the last 24 hours at Gigafactory managed to achieve a sustained rate of over 3,000 packs per day -- sorry, per week, and actually reached the peak hour with -- if extrapolated outward would be a rate of around 5,000 cars per week.

我們得到 - 就在 Gigafactory 的最後 24 小時內，我們設法實現了每天超過 3,000 包的持續速度 - 抱歉，每週，實際上達到了高峰時間 - 如果向外推斷，大約是 5,000 包每週的汽車。

And obviously, you can't take a peak hour and assume every peak is -- every hour is as good as the peak.

顯然，您不能在高峰時段假設每個高峰都 - 每個小時都與高峰一樣好。

But it's -- if you can -- if you're going to achieve it even once in an hour, then with continued refinement of the system and improved operational uptime of the machinery, it means that you can achieve that sustained rate with more refinement.

但它——如果可以的話——如果你想要達到它甚至每小時一次，那麼隨著系統的不斷改進和機器的運行正常運行時間的改進，這意味著你可以通過更多的改進來實現這種持續的速度.

So if we spend essentially a month or 2 improving the operational uptime and the system as a whole, we'll be able to do well over 5,000, I think.

因此，如果我們基本上花一兩個月的時間來改善運營正常運行時間和整個系統，我認為我們將能夠完成 5,000 多個。

I mean, what's interesting is that, at least in the case of pack production, we were able to do this with minimal CapEx.

我的意思是，有趣的是，至少在包裝生產的情況下，我們能夠以最少的資本支出做到這一點。

And I think, in general, our understanding of production is improving dramatically -- exponentially, in fact, and we are seeing ways to achieve improved volume with dramatically less CapEx by simplifying the production line, by really engaging with our associates, no matter how junior, and improving the way that parts are made.

而且我認為，總的來說，我們對生產的理解正在顯著提高——事實上，呈指數級增長，我們正在尋找通過簡化生產線、真正與我們的員工互動來提高產量、顯著減少資本支出的方法，無論如何初級，並改進零件的製造方式。

It's amazing how everybody's got good ideas.

令人驚訝的是，每個人都有好主意。

Just need to solicit those ideas and implement them and then making ongoing design improvements so that when we discover that something is not well designed for manufacturing, that we will very quickly change that part design and introduce that into the flow.

只需要徵求這些想法並實施它們，然後進行持續的設計改進，以便當我們發現某些東西不適合製造時，我們將很快改變該零件設計並將其引入流程中。

One of the things we also found is that there are some things that are very well suited to manual operation and some things that are very well suited to automated operation, and the 2 should not be confused.

我們還發現了其中一個東西，有些東西非常適合手動操作，有些東西非常適合自動化操作，兩者不要混淆。

So I should be clear that the vast majority of the Tesla production system is automated.

所以我應該清楚，特斯拉生產系統的絕大部分是自動化的。

However, as I mentioned in a tweet a few months ago, we did go too far in the automation front and automated some pretty silly things.

然而，正如我在幾個月前的推文中提到的那樣，我們在自動化方面確實走得太遠了，並且自動化了一些非常愚蠢的事情。

One example would be we have this -- so this is sort of ironically foolish.

一個例子是我們有這個——所以這有點諷刺地愚蠢。

We had these fiberglass mats on the top of the battery pack, but basically like -- they're basically fluff.

我們在電池組頂部有這些玻璃纖維墊，但基本上就像 - 它們基本上是絨毛。

So we tried to automate the placement and bonding of fluff to the top of the battery pack, which is ridiculous.

因此，我們嘗試自動將絨毛放置和粘合到電池組的頂部，這很荒謬。

Like so we had fluffer bot, which was really an incredibly difficult machine to make work.

就像這樣，我們有fluffer bot，這確實是一台非常難以製造的機器。

Machines are not good at picking up pieces of fluff, okay.

機器不擅長撿起絨毛，好吧。

Human hands are way better at doing that.

人手在這方面做得更好。

And so we had a super complicated machine using a vision system to try to put a piece of fluff on the battery pack.

所以我們有一台超級複雜的機器，它使用視覺系統試圖在電池組上放一塊絨毛。

That same -- and one of the questions asked was, "Do we actually need that?" So we tested a car with and without and found that there was no change in the noise volume in the cabin, so we actually had a part that was unnecessary that was -- of course, the line kept breaking down because fluffer bot would frequently just fail to pick up the fluff or put it in like a random location.

同樣——其中一個問題是，“我們真的需要那個嗎？”所以我們測試了一輛有和沒有的汽車，發現機艙內的噪音量沒有變化，所以我們實際上有一個不必要的部分——當然，線路不斷故障，因為fluffer bot經常只是無法拾起絨毛或將其像隨機位置一樣放入。

So that was one of the silliest things I found.

所以這是我發現的最愚蠢的事情之一。

We were also -- and this still remains to be fixed, but -- in a lot of cases, but we're overgeneralizing the design.

我們也是 - 這仍然有待修復，但是 - 在很多情況下，但我們過度概括了設計。

So for example, the current battery pack has a port for the front-drive units, which we then put a blanking plate, a sealed blanking plate on.

例如，當前的電池組有一個用於前驅動單元的端口，然後我們在其上放置一個盲板，一個密封的盲板。

So essentially, we punched a hole in it and put a blanking plate at the hole and do that for all rear-drive unit cars, which is kind of crazy.

所以本質上，我們在上面打了一個洞，然後在洞上放了一塊盲板，然後對所有後驅車都這樣做，這有點瘋狂。

We've added cost.

我們增加了成本。

We've added a manufacturing step, better failure mode, and for something that is unnecessary.

我們添加了一個製造步驟、更好的故障模式以及一些不必要的東西。

So that is something that's -- or example of some things.

所以這就是——或某些事情的例子。

That's changed.

那變了。

So -- and then result is we've had a radical improvement in production -- battery pack production went from taking 7 hours to make a pack 3 weeks ago to under [70] minutes now, so just to show that it's like really radical improvement.

所以——然後結果是我們的生產有了根本性的改進——電池組的生產從 3 週前需要 7 個小時來製作一個電池組到現在不到 [70] 分鐘，所以只是為了表明它真的很激進改進。

It's R&D possible.

可以進行研發。

We also saw a modest improvement in Zone 4 of module production.

我們還看到第 4 區的組件生產略有改善。

This, I should point out, is a clearly automated zone, and we're able to also achieve a sustained rate of 3,000 vehicles a week.

我應該指出，這是一個明顯的自動化區域，我們還能夠實現每週 3,000 輛汽車的持續速度。

So we're actually slightly ahead in battery module and pack production than expected.

因此，我們實際上在電池模塊和電池組生產方面比預期略領先。

And with some work at the Fremont vehicle plant, primarily in the general assemble -- general assembly area, I'm confident we will very soon exceed the 3,000 mark in Fremont.

由於弗里蒙特汽車廠的一些工作，主要是在總裝區——總裝區，我相信我們很快就會超過弗里蒙特的 3,000 輛大關。

So we're already there in the body shop, which is also almost entirely automated, where we weld up the body.

所以我們已經在車身車間了，這也是幾乎完全自動化的，我們在那裡焊接車身。

They were already capable of over 3,000 cars a week, and the general assembly, with some improvements, which will include reductions on -- reduction -- I should say, temporary reduction in automation in a few places, then we should be able to do 3,000.

他們已經有能力每週生產 3,000 多輛汽車，而大會，還有一些改進，其中包括減少——減少——我應該說，在一些地方暫時減少自動化，那麼我們應該能夠做到3,000。

So basically I'm feeling really good about the Tesla production of Model 3, and I'm very proud of the work that the team has done.

所以基本上我對特斯拉生產的 Model 3 感覺非常好，我為團隊所做的工作感到非常自豪。

It's been an amazing amount of hard work and sacrifice by some very talented people to achieve this outcome.

一些非常有才華的人為了實現這一結果付出了驚人的努力和犧牲。

It's worth noting the -- you see a chart in the Model 3 market share versus competitors in midsized premium sedans.

值得注意的是——您可以看到 Model 3 市場份額與中型高檔轎車競爭對手的對比圖表。

We are almost the best-selling sedan in the United States in this category and -- as of April, and we will certainly be there in May, unless something really odd -- I mean, be there in May, and then we'll really be there later this year, right.

我們幾乎是美國這一類別中最暢銷的轎車，而且——截至 4 月，我們肯定會在 5 月到達那裡，除非真的很奇怪——我的意思是，在 5 月到達那裡，然後我們會今年晚些時候真的會在那裡，對吧。

In the third quarter, it will -- I think there's a good chance Model 3 gets maybe close to majority market share of midsized premium sedans, 40 -- 30%, 40%, seems likely, and maybe a majority market share later this year.

在第三季度，我認為 Model 3 很有可能接近中型高檔轎車的大部分市場份額，40 - 30%，40%，似乎很可能，並且可能在今年晚些時候佔據大部分市場份額.

This is coming from a standing start against a lot of established brands who have far more sales outlets than we do, so this is very encouraging.

這是與許多銷售網點比我們多得多的知名品牌相對立的，所以這是非常令人鼓舞的。

Okay.

好的。

And yes, as this letter says, I'm feeling quite confident about achieving GAAP net income and positive cash flow in Q3.

是的，正如這封信所說，我對在第三季度實現 GAAP 淨收入和正現金流充滿信心。

This is not, I'd say, a certainty, but it does appear quite likely in my view.

我想說，這不是確定的，但在我看來確實很有可能。

We are going to conduct sort of a reorganization restructuring of the company in the next -- this month and make sure we're well set up to achieve that goal.

我們將在接下來的本月對公司進行某種重組重組，並確保我們做好了實現這一目標的準備。

And in particular, the number of sort of third-party contracting companies that we're using has really gotten out of control, so we're going to scrub the barnacles on that front.

尤其是，我們使用的第三方承包公司的數量已經失控，所以我們將在這方面擦掉藤壺。

It's pretty crazy.

這太瘋狂了。

You've got barnacles on barnacles.

你在藤壺上有藤壺。

So there's going to be a lot of barnacle removal.

所以會有很多藤壺被清除。

All right.

好的。

Any concern or make any comments?

有任何顧慮或發表意見嗎？

Thank you, Elon.

謝謝你，埃隆。

Sherri, let's go to the first question.

雪莉，我們來回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Brian Johnson with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brian Johnson。

Yes.

是的。

Want to talk a little bit about some of the -- first of all, if we talk about the -- sort of all relate to the production ramp.

想談談一些 - 首先，如果我們談論 - 所有與生產坡道有關的事情。

If we talk about the 5,000 per week run rate, is that assuming 7/24 ? Or at what point do you think you'd get to sort of 5-day, 2-shift operation?

如果我們談論每週 5,000 次的運行率，是假設 7/24 嗎？或者您認為您會在什麼時候進行 5 天 2 班制的操作？

Well, first of all, I think a 5-day, 2-shift operation is a ridiculous way to operate because that would be a very poor use of CapEx.

嗯，首先，我認為 5 天 2 班制的運營方式是一種荒謬的運營方式，因為這樣會非常不利於資本支出。

Nor is it the way that we have operated in -- for most of Tesla.

對於特斯拉的大部分人來說，這也不是我們的運作方式。

So the module production -- the cell module and battery pack production and powertrain production have always operated on a 24/7 basis.

所以模組生產——電芯模組和電池組生產以及動力總成生產一直是24/7全天候運行。

And the exception has been general assembly, which has operated on typically 2 to 3 shifts, so about a 5- to 6-day, 20-hour shift; and paint, which has operated on kind of a 6-day basis.

總裝是個例外，它通常是 2 到 3 個班次，所以大約 5 到 6 天，20 小時輪班；和油漆，它已經運行了 6 天。

So I think it just makes sense to operate the whole company on the same basis, but a majority of Tesla is always operated -- a majority of Tesla production has operated around 24/7 basis since we started production.

因此，我認為以相同的方式運營整個公司是有意義的，但特斯拉的大部分業務始終在運營——自我們開始生產以來，特斯拉的大部分生產一直在 24/7 左右運營。

Yes.

是的。

And this is J.B. I can chime in.

這是 J.B. 我可以插話。

As Elon said, it really makes great use of the CapEx and the lines, and that's why we did it, starting way back at the beginning of S. But aligning everything to the same shift schedule makes it so much more efficient because we don't have the seesaw of inventory, the underlying inventory between the different shops.

正如 Elon 所說，它確實很好地利用了資本支出和生產線，這就是我們這樣做的原因，從 S 的開始就開始了。但是將所有東西都與同一個班次安排保持一致使它變得更加高效，因為我們沒有' t有庫存的蹺蹺板，不同商店之間的基礎庫存。

Exactly.

確切地。

And one of the key things to improving the capital efficiency of the system is reducing work in progress -- work in process.

提高系統資本效率的關鍵之一是減少在製品——在製品。

And if you don't have -- if the shifts are not aligned, then you have to build up inventory in kind of a storage warehouse and then -- yes.

如果你沒有 - 如果班次沒有對齊，那麼你必須在某種存儲倉庫中建立庫存，然後 - 是的。

So it's pretty foolish to actually operate on a 5-day, 2-shift in any way.

因此，以任何方式實際操作 5 天 2 班制是非常愚蠢的。

But it's -- this is sort of a -- we're using the chip fab approach to capital efficiency, so it's called (inaudible).

但它 - 這有點像 - 我們正在使用芯片工廠方法來提高資本效率，所以它被稱為（聽不清）。

I don't know where it says what.

我不知道它在哪裡說什麼。

I'm not sure what it's called.

我不確定它叫什麼。

But like this is something called...

但是像這樣的東西叫做...

Ultimate workweek.

終極工作週。

Ultimate work whatever, ultimate workweek.

終極工作，終極工作週。

Yes.

是的。

I think (inaudible) people work like 3 long days and then 4 long days ultimately, something like that.

我認為（聽不清）人們的工作時間是 3 天，然後最終是 4 天，類似的事情。

(inaudible) crews on and just using overtime on weekends.

（聽不清）工作人員在周末加班。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Exactly.

確切地。

Right.

正確的。

So it seems like...

所以好像...

It's not like one person working 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

這不像一個人每週 7 天，每天 24 小時工作。

There are like 4 or 5 shifts.

大概有 4 或 5 個班次。

Yes.

是的。

So if I just do the math, that would seem like 5,000 to get you to takt time of 2 minutes.

所以如果我只是做數學，這似乎是 5,000 讓你的節拍時間為 2 分鐘。

And I go back to some of the prior conversations, I mean, that's -- my understanding is best in class is sort of 50 seconds to a minute.

我回到之前的一些對話，我的意思是，我在課堂上最好的理解是 50 秒到一分鐘。

And I thought the whole going faster than grandma walker was actually targeted at blowing past that, but sounds like you're sort of 2x the takt time of other factories.

而且我認為整個比奶奶沃克快的實際上是針對吹過去的，但聽起來你的節拍時間是其他工廠的 2 倍。

The takt -- the number you're referring to is actually general -- the general assembly number.

節拍——你所指的數字實際上是通用的——大會編號。

Vehicles per minute, yes.

每分鐘車輛，是的。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

It's general assembly number, not that other stuff, but...

是大會編號，不是其他的東西，而是...

You may have also not taken into account so-called OEE or the actual uptime of the line, which tends to make the takt time a little faster than the product cycles.

您可能還沒有考慮所謂的 OEE 或生產線的實際正常運行時間，這往往會使節拍時間比產品週期快一點。

Let's say it could take us a minute then, because that would mean it's like over a 7-day, 24-hour workweek.

假設那時我們可能需要一分鐘，因為這意味著它就像一個 7 天 24 小時的工作週。

Like we could also just say -- actually we did our peak pack production today was 32 packs in an hour, so we're under a minute -- under 2 minutes a pack and rising from there.

就像我們也可以說 - 實際上我們今天的峰值包裝產量是一小時內 32 包，所以我們不到一分鐘 - 每包不到 2 分鐘並從那裡上升。

Yes.

是的。

And probably the numbers go up rapidly as we go to the subassemblies that are in higher unit quantity per car.

當我們使用每輛車的單位數量更高的子組件時，這些數字可能會迅速上升。

Yes.

是的。

So 4x per module, and then we have smaller subassemblies still that are factors of 10 or 20, even higher than that.

所以每個模塊 4 倍，然後我們仍然有更小的子組件，它們是 10 或 20 倍，甚至更高。

Yes.

是的。

That said, I do believe that the path to manufacturing efficiency is velocity and density, and that is absolutely what we'll be working on rather than just trying to spend billions of dollars on duplicating a factory.

也就是說，我確實相信提高製造效率的途徑是速度和密度，這絕對是我們將要努力的方向，而不是僅僅試圖花費數十億美元來複製工廠。

If you make like -- if 2 companies are competing and one has to double its CapEx in order to double production and the other one can, with minor CapEx, can just speed up the line by double, it's a game over.

如果你喜歡——如果有兩家公司在競爭，一家公司必須將其資本支出翻一番才能使產量翻一番，而另一家可以在資本支出較小的情況下將生產線速度提高一倍，那麼遊戲就結束了。

Great.

偉大的。

But in the meantime, the lines -- then I think what you're saying, some starts, some stops to get to the 5,000 per week?

但與此同時，線路——然後我想你在說什麼，有些開始，有些停止，以達到每週 5,000 條？

Yes.

是的。

You can't -- like you can't have like 0 maintenance time and 0 -- like you have to do equipment upgrades.

你不能 - 就像你不能擁有 0 維護時間和 0 - 就像你必須進行設備升級一樣。

You have to do ongoing maintenance, so you can't just have it be operating at peak rates 24/7.

您必須進行持續維護，因此您不能讓它以 24/7 的最高速率運行。

Our next question comes from Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Rod Lache。

Just wanted to follow along on that line of question.

只是想繼續這個問題。

So to the extent that you're adding humans in certain automated processes, can you just help us interpret the extent to which these changes affect the economics on Model 3?

因此，就您在某些自動化流程中添加人員而言，您能否幫助我們解釋這些變化對 Model 3 經濟性的影響程度？

And to the extent that you've done some competitive analysis, all of these efforts in the Tesla production system, how do you stack up competitively against other OEMs in terms of labor hours per vehicle or depreciation per vehicle?

並且在您進行了一些競爭分析的範圍內，所有這些在特斯拉生產系統中的努力，您如何在每輛車的工時或每輛車的折舊方面與其他 OEM 競爭？

Well, I'll just say something -- so a few things, then I have -- Deepak can elaborate.

好吧，我只想說幾件事——那麼我有幾件事——Deepak 可以詳細說明。

Let's see.

讓我們來看看。

So the thing that I've noticed is, if you have a really complicated machine like the fluff bot that I was talking about earlier, in order to keep it operating, you have to have a ton of maintenance engineering.

所以我注意到的是，如果你有一台非常複雜的機器，比如我之前談到的絨毛機器人，為了讓它保持運行，你必須有大量的維護工程。

So you have like basically pretty expensive maintenance engineers that have to maintain the thing and fix it, like, basically 7 days a week, 24 hours a day.

因此，您基本上擁有非常昂貴的維護工程師，他們必須維護並修復它，例如，基本上每週 7 天、每天 24 小時。

The cost of the maintenance engineer may not be incorporated directly into -- or fully incorporated directly into gross margin, but it's nonetheless a cost that far exceeds the labor cost of simply placing the fluff on the battery pack, which, as I said, that was unnecessary.

維護工程師的成本可能不會直接計入 - 或完全直接計入毛利率，但它仍然遠遠超過簡單地將絨毛放在電池組上的人工成本，正如我所說，是不必要的。

So I think to actually -- I do not see this having a much of a long-term impact in our cost.

所以我認為實際上 - 我認為這對我們的成本沒有太大的長期影響。

I actually see it most likely our cost will decrease, or we consider the cost to producing the vehicles will decrease by getting rid of production stations that are really poorly suited to robotics because of the very expensive cost of robot technicians.

實際上，我認為我們的成本很可能會降低，或者我們認為生產車輛的成本會降低，因為機器人技術人員的成本非常昂貴，因此淘汰了非常不適合機器人技術的生產站。

Rod, we are very CapEx efficient, or let me just start from that point.

羅德，我們的資本支出效率很高，或者讓我從這一點開始。

And if we look at our depreciation cost on a per-unit basis at steady run rate of 5,000 or so cars per week, we are, in my mind, well below a lot of our -- I mean, most of our competitors, well below $2,000 per unit depreciation cost.

而且，如果我們以每週 5,000 輛左右的穩定運行率來看我們的單位折舊成本，在我看來，我們遠低於我們的很多——我的意思是，我們的大多數競爭對手，嗯每單位折舊成本低於 2,000 美元。

And then overall, clearly there is some impact, as we have indicated in the letter, from the additional labor we've added, but it's temporary.

然後總體而言，正如我們在信中所指出的那樣，我們增加的額外勞動力顯然會產生一些影響，但這是暫時的。

And our expectation fully is a lot of this labor will come out once we stabilize production and then figure out smart ways of automating where it makes sense.

我們的完全期望是，一旦我們穩定生產，然後找出明智的自動化方法來實現有意義的自動化，就會有大量的勞動力出現。

Okay.

好的。

And just secondly, your comments in your letter on the advances in batteries were interesting.

其次，你在信中關於電池進步的評論很有趣。

Could you give us some insight into how we can translate that into cost per kilowatt hour or some metric in terms of the gains that you're making?

您能否給我們一些見解，了解我們如何將其轉化為每千瓦時的成本或您所獲得的收益的某些指標？

That's something -- I mean, every data point, Rod, that we look at internally suggests that we are best in class, but we don't...

這就是——我的意思是，羅德，我們在內部查看的每個數據點都表明我們是同類中最好的，但我們不......

We're the best, just not in class.

我們是最好的，只是不在課堂上。

Yes.

是的。

We're the best.

我們是最棒的。

Sorry.

對不起。

Best in a class of one.

同類中最好的。

I think directionally, Rod, it's helpful to understand the different commodities and the trends that we're pursuing in the batteries.

我認為有方向性，羅德，了解不同的商品和我們在電池中追求的趨勢是有幫助的。

Being on a path to reduce cobalt usage, for instance, has been something we've been working on for literally several years now.

例如，在減少鈷使用的道路上，我們已經努力了好幾年了。

And this has been extremely helpful in the overall cost per kilowatt hour, especially with recent commodity price movements.

這對每千瓦時的總體成本非常有幫助，尤其是在最近的商品價格變動中。

So I think we can't really be quantitative, but that, directionally, is a pretty good trend.

所以我認為我們不能真正量化，但從方向上講，這是一個很好的趨勢。

Yes.

是的。

We think we can get the cobalt to almost nothing.

我們認為我們可以讓鈷幾乎為零。

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Elon, so you repeatedly said, I think, in recent weeks that you do not need to issue equity capital at Tesla.

Elon，所以你反复說，我認為最近幾週你不需要在特斯拉發行股權資本。

I think many investors on this call would say it's better to raise capital when you don't need to.

我認為本次電話會議上的許多投資者會說，在不需要的時候籌集資金會更好。

So I guess first question is...

所以我想第一個問題是......

I disagree.

我不同意。

Yes.

是的。

You may not need to, but do you want to?

您可能不需要，但您願意嗎？

No.

不。

I specifically don't want to.

我特別不想。

Perfect.

完美的。

Okay.

好的。

My follow-up, Elon, is your cars produce really a large amount of data, and SpaceX gets into the satellite broadband business next year...

我的後續行動，埃隆，你的汽車真的會產生大量數據，SpaceX 明年將涉足衛星寬帶業務……

Not next year, but it's probably 3 years.

不是明年，但可能是3年。

Okay, 3 years.

好的，3年。

Some argue that SpaceX could offer Tesla a resilient cybersecure pipe for this precious vehicle data and a potential competitive advantage.

一些人認為，SpaceX 可以為特斯拉提供一個有彈性的網絡安全管道，用於存儲這些寶貴的車輛數據和潛在的競爭優勢。

So Elon, isn't bandwidth an obvious domain for collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX one day?

那麼，埃隆，有朝一日，帶寬不是特斯拉和 SpaceX 合作的一個明顯領域嗎？

I mean, it might be.

我的意思是，它可能是。

There's lots of interesting things we could do.

我們可以做很多有趣的事情。

Cars got a lot of computing power, and it's connected to the cell networks and WiFi and everything, or it's certainly connected to a LEO Internet constellation.

汽車擁有強大的計算能力，它連接到蜂窩網絡和 WiFi 等一切，或者它肯定連接到 LEO 互聯網星座。

I haven't really thought about it, but probably there is.

我還沒有真正考慮過，但可能有。

Our next question comes from David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的大衛坦貝里諾。

Elon, you've talked about the downtime on the Model 3. You're going to take 2 planned periods this quarter.

Elon，您已經談到了 Model 3 的停機時間。您將在本季度計劃進行 2 個週期。

One has already occurred.

一個已經發生了。

The other is going to occur later in the quarter.

另一個將在本季度晚些時候發生。

What specifically have you addressed in Fremont so far?

到目前為止，您在弗里蒙特有什麼具體的問題？

And what are you planning to address a little bit later?

你打算稍後解決什麼問題？

And are those the lone kind of remaining bottlenecks for you to get to the 5k within the Fremont plant?

這些是您在弗里蒙特工廠達到 5k 的唯一剩餘瓶頸嗎？

Well, the Tesla production system at this point is vast, so -- and we literally have the 2 biggest factories on Earth between the Gigafactory and Fremont.

好吧，目前特斯拉的生產系統非常龐大，所以——我們實際上在 Gigafactory 和 Fremont 之間擁有地球上最大的 2 家工廠。

Giga is still slightly smaller than Fremont.

Giga 仍然比 Fremont 略小。

I think -- well, maybe just -- yes, slightly smaller, but it will soon be bigger than Fremont.

我認為——嗯，也許只是——是的，稍微小一點，但它很快就會比弗里蒙特大。

And Fremont is like the second-biggest building of any kind by footprint.

弗里蒙特就像是佔地面積第二大的建築。

So it's just like there's -- this is a vast -- the full answer to that question is a complex one.

所以就像有 - 這是一個巨大的 - 這個問題的完整答案是一個複雜的答案。

The -- I feel very confident about our ability to get to 5k very soon in a sustained rate at Giga, getting to -- essentially getting to 5,000 battery packs and motors and power inverters and charges and that kind of thing [installed] down at Giga by the end of next month.

我對我們能夠以 Giga 的持續速度很快達到 5k 的能力非常有信心，基本上達到 5,000 個電池組、電機、電源逆變器和充電設備以及 [已安裝] 的那種東西下個月底的千兆。

And battery production, no problem.

和電池生產，沒有問題。

General assembly is probably our biggest risk, and I'm really focusing on -- personally on that a lot in the next -- in the coming month.

大會可能是我們最大的風險，我真的很關注 - 在接下來的一個月裡，我個人會非常關注 - 在接下來的一個月裡。

And then the -- our paint shop is maybe the second-biggest risk after general assembly, but these are all pretty -- these are all quite manageable.

然後——我們的噴漆車間可能是僅次於總裝的第二大風險，但這些都很漂亮——這些都很容易控制。

It's not like huge brain surgery to get these things right.

把這些事情做對，不像是巨大的腦部手術。

It's a lot of work.

這是很多工作。

I like to say it's a lot of -- just a lot of time and hard work, but it's very doable.

我想說這需要很多——只是需要很多時間和努力工作，但這是非常可行的。

And yes -- so it's really quite straightforward.

是的——所以它真的很簡單。

It's not like a fundamental impediment here.

這不像是一個根本性的障礙。

And many cases, we've seen huge gains through software that's in the car, software that controls the automation and connects to our central system.

在許多情況下，我們通過汽車中的軟件、控制自動化並連接到我們的中央系統的軟件看到了巨大的收益。

So in many cases, it's not even hardware upgrades that create substantial increases in velocity.

因此，在許多情況下，甚至硬件升級都不會顯著提高速度。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Doug makes a good point here, and I think that is -- that the production -- a really great production system is primarily a software problem.

Doug 在這裡提出了一個很好的觀點，我認為那是——生產——一個真正偉大的生產系統主要是一個軟件問題。

And there's no one in the auto industry that is remotely as good as Tesla -- at software as Tesla.

在汽車行業，沒有人能比得上特斯拉——在軟件方面比得上特斯拉。

We're -- I mean, Tesla is way better at software than any other car company.

我們——我的意思是，特斯拉在軟件方面比任何其他汽車公司都要好。

So if it is -- what I'm saying is true, that the biggest challenge in the production system is software, we are in a good position.

所以如果是——我說的是真的，生產系統中最大的挑戰是軟件，我們處於一個很好的位置。

Okay.

好的。

Maybe taking my next question in a different direction.

也許將我的下一個問題引向不同的方向。

What is your time line for launching the Model Y?

你們推出 Model Y 的時間表是什麼？

And have you begun to spend for this, or that only begins to start hitting the P&L from an R&D and a CapEx perspective in 2019?

您是否已經開始為此花錢，或者從 2019 年的研發和資本支出的角度來看，這才開始觸及損益？

It will only start to become significant in 2019.

它只會在 2019 年開始變得重要。

Okay.

好的。

So all of the CapEx spend for this year is associated with Fremont, Model 3, Gigafactory?

那麼今年所有的資本支出都與弗裡蒙特、Model 3、Gigafactory 有關嗎？

No, no.

不，不。

I mean, please take me literally.

我的意思是，請從字面上理解。

I said it will only start to become significant next year.

我說它只會在明年開始變得重要。

It's not 0 right now, but it's not a big number.

現在不是0，但也不是很大的數字。

It's not a big number relative to our revenue.

相對於我們的收入來說，這並不是一個很大的數字。

In the early days of product development anyway, there's not much CapEx.

無論如何，在產品開發的早期，資本支出並不多。

CapEx becomes greater as you commit it to equipment and equipment starts to come in-house.

當您將資本支出用於設備並且設備開始進入內部時，資本支出會變得更大。

Yes.

是的。

Although it is remarkable -- although the amount of money spent in the beginning is really quite low in the beginning of a development program, decisions made at the beginning of a development program have massive implications for future CapEx.

儘管這很了不起——儘管在開發項目開始時所花費的資金量確實很低，但在開發項目開始時做出的決定對未來的資本支出具有巨大的影響。

So it is better to spend a bit more time making the right design decisions and really thinking through the producibility of a product before racing ahead with CapEx decisions.

因此，最好花更多時間做出正確的設計決策，並真正考慮產品的可生產性，然後再進行資本支出決策。

There's no question we could have made the Model 3 much easier to produce than we have.

毫無疑問，我們可以讓 Model 3 比我們更容易生產。

Model Y, I think Model Y is going to be a manufacturing revolution.

Y 型，我認為 Y 型將是一場製造業革命。

It will be, I think, incredible from a manufacturing standpoint because we do not want to go through this pain again, yes.

我認為，從製造的角度來看，這將是不可思議的，因為我們不想再次經歷這種痛苦，是的。

Our next question comes from Romit Shah with Nomura Instinet.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nomura Instinet 的 Romit Shah。

Yes.

是的。

I just wanted to clarify the gross margin comments related to Model 3 that you put in the letter.

我只是想澄清您在信中提出的與 Model 3 相關的毛利率評論。

You said a couple of things.

你說了幾件事。

You said, over the medium term, Model 3 gross margins would be below the target of 25%.

你說，從中期來看，Model 3 的毛利率將低於 25% 的目標。

You also said that in Q3 and Q4, that those gross margins would be highly positive.

您還說過，在第三季度和第四季度，這些毛利率將是非常積極的。

So I'm just trying to understand what's possible for Model 3 gross margins by the end of the year.

所以我只是想了解今年年底 Model 3 的毛利率是多少。

Could we get to a number that's close to 20%?

我們能得到一個接近 20% 的數字嗎？

What I'd say is that progressively, each quarter, we will be getting better.

我想說的是，每個季度，我們都會逐漸變得更好。

Yes.

是的。

The answer is yes, and it'll come down to what other economics come into play from currencies to commodities, and how much more cost we take out from labor.

答案是肯定的，這將歸結為從貨幣到商品的其他經濟因素，以及我們從勞動力中提取的成本有多少。

So I don't want to give you a specific number, but probably close to it.

所以我不想給你一個具體的數字，但可能接近它。

It's like -- yes, exactly.

這就像 - 是的，完全正確。

If not -- it's -- yes, exactly, very close to 20%, could be slightly below, could be slightly above.

如果不是 - 它是 - 是的，確切地說，非常接近 20%，可能略低於，可能略高於。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

And then, Elon, can I just ask you about...

然後，埃隆，我能問你關於...

Sorry.

對不起。

Just thinking of going a little further forward than, say, Q4, we're very confident of the 25% gross margin.

只是考慮比第四季度更進一步，我們對 25% 的毛利率非常有信心。

Thanks for clarifying that.

感謝您澄清這一點。

Yes.

是的。

We feel very good about that in the medium term.

從中期來看，我們對此感覺非常好。

For next year, 25% is definitely what we would expect.

對於明年，25% 絕對是我們所期望的。

So when you say medium term, you're talking 2018?

所以當你說中期時，你說的是 2018 年？

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

That's why it was important to clarify what these things mean.

這就是為什麼澄清這些事情的含義很重要的原因。

Yes, Q4 is when we expect to be on or about 20%.

是的，第四季度是我們預計達到或大約 20% 的時候。

Then by the middle of next year, 25% gross margin should be where we are.

然後到明年年中，25%的毛利率應該是我們的水平。

And then we'll also try to get to the high 20s by the end of next year.

然後我們也將努力在明年年底前達到 20 多歲。

Okay.

好的。

As a follow-up, could you just comment on Jim Keller's departure, a highly respected chief architect?

作為後續，您能否評論一下備受尊敬的首席架構師 Jim Keller 的離職？

What does it say, if anything, about the development of Tesla's custom silicon and Autopilot?

它對特斯拉定制芯片和自動駕駛儀的開發有什麼看法？

Well, Jim is a great guy.

好吧，吉姆是個好人。

And the sort of dream he wanted to pursue for a long time to -- which is to kind of redesign how server architecture works, it's not something that I find a lot interesting, but it's something that Jim -- it's been a sort of a personal dream for Jim to do, and that's why he went to Intel.

以及他長期以來一直想要追求的那種夢想——重新設計服務器架構的工作方式，這不是我覺得很有趣的事情，但這是吉姆的事情——這是一種吉姆的個人夢想，這就是他去英特爾的原因。

The Tesla -- the actual design of the Tesla hardware is primarily led by Pete Bannon.

特斯拉——特斯拉硬件的實際設計主要由皮特班農領導。

I should be clear, like the lead designer of that is Pete Bannon, who is still with Tesla, and then of course Andrej Karpathy is head of our AI team.

我應該清楚，就像首席設計師是皮特班農，他仍然在特斯拉，然後當然安德烈卡帕斯是我們人工智能團隊的負責人。

So we don't plan to hire a replacement for Jim's position.

因此，我們不打算聘請替代 Jim 的職位。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦。

I just wanted to follow up on the previous question and the gross margin targets.

我只是想跟進上一個問題和毛利率目標。

I think you had said last quarter that once you got to 5,000 units, you felt that you could get to 25% gross margins on Model 3, so that feels like at least a 6- or 9-month delay relative to what you thought a quarter ago.

我想你在上個季度說過，一旦達到 5,000 輛，你覺得 Model 3 的毛利率可以達到 25%，所以相對於你認為的季度前。

And I'm trying to understand what the key drivers are.

我試圖了解關鍵驅動因素是什麼。

Is it really the labor for capital substitution?

真的是勞動力替代資本嗎？

I don't think currency sequentially has changed much.

我認為貨幣順序變化不大。

I understand it can be a headwind.

我知道這可能是一個逆風。

But I think relative to when you made those statements, it hasn't changed.

但我認為相對於你發表這些聲明時，它並沒有改變。

So perhaps you can help us understand what has changed in terms of the gross margin ramp for Model 3 relative to what you thought before.

因此，也許您可以幫助我們了解 Model 3 的毛利率相對於您之前的想法發生了哪些變化。

And I have a follow-up, please.

我有一個跟進，拜託。

Yes, it's along the lines of what we said in the letter.

是的，正如我們在信中所說的那樣。

If we look at the combination of the recently imposed tariffs, Section 232 and countervailing duties plus commodity price increases as well as the weaker dollar, that is adding significant material cost.

如果我們看一下最近徵收的關稅、第 232 條和反補貼稅加上大宗商品價格上漲以及美元疲軟的組合，那就是增加了大量的材料成本。

And then temporarily, we are using more labor.

然後暫時，我們正在使用更多的勞動力。

So when you combine those 2, that's what led to our guidance.

因此，當您將這兩者結合起來時，這就是我們提供指導的原因。

And certainly, the material -- the labor cost piece, we will address and that will come out.

當然，材料——勞動力成本部分，我們會解決，並且會出來。

Yes.

是的。

But I mean, we're only talking about a 3% to 5% difference.

但我的意思是，我們只是在談論 3% 到 5% 的差異。

So like -- and that's something that we'll solve like within 3 to 6 months later, so I don't -- it's not like it's some -- don't make a federal case out of it.

所以就像 - 這是我們將在 3 到 6 個月後解決的問題，所以我不 - 它不像是這樣 - 不要將其作為聯邦案件。

And then separately, what, if anything, are you taking out in terms of your lowered CapEx projection for this year?

然後分別地，如果有的話，你對今年降低的資本支出預測有什麼看法？

And specifically, in spending less than $3 billion, where does that take you in terms of both battery and production capacity for the Model 3?

具體來說，在花費不到 30 億美元的情況下，這在 Model 3 的電池和生產能力方面有何影響？

Yes, so we're just being much more smarter in many cases.

是的，所以在許多情況下，我們只是變得更加聰明。

As Elon said, we are not just spending money on automation.

正如埃隆所說，我們不只是在自動化上花錢。

We're of course looking at the problem, simplifying it, and that's helped us reduce our CapEx on Model 3. And then we are also being critical about how we grow our infrastructure and line it up with our growth in our business.

當然，我們正在研究並簡化問題，這幫助我們減少了 Model 3 的資本支出。然後，我們也對如何發展基礎設施並使其與我們的業務增長保持一致至關重要。

So we feel that these are the right decisions and there is still room for us to reduce it further if we wish to.

因此，我們認為這些是正確的決定，如果我們願意，我們仍有進一步減少它的空間。

So we are leaving ourselves some discretion here to go spend money where needed.

所以我們在這裡給自己留了一些自由裁量權，可以在需要的地方花錢。

And so where specifically will you be in terms of capital requirement?

那麼，就資本要求而言，您具體會在哪裡？

Boring bonehead questions are not cool.

無聊的白痴問題並不酷。

Next.

下一個。

Our next question comes from Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

The first question is related to the Model 3 reservations, and I was just wondering if you gave us a gauge as maybe some of the impact that the news has had.

第一個問題與 Model 3 的預訂有關，我只是想知道你是否給了我們一個衡量標準，可能是該消息產生的一些影響。

Like of the reservations that actually opened and made available to configure, can you let us know like what -- how -- what percentage have actually taken steps to configure?

就像實際打開並可供配置的預留一樣，您能否讓我們知道什麼——如何——實際採取了多少步驟來配置？

We're going to go to YouTube, sorry.

我們要去 YouTube 了，抱歉。

These questions are so dry.

這些問題太枯燥了。

They're killing me.

他們在殺我。

Our next question is from Galileo Russell with HyperChange.

我們的下一個問題來自 HyperChange 的 Galileo Russell。

To represent retail investors, I was wondering with Waymo's plans to launch an autonomous taxi service in limited markets this year if you could give us an update on the Tesla Network and any details surrounding the launch date or geographic rollout.

為了代表散戶投資者，我想知道 Waymo 計劃今年在有限的市場推出自動出租車服務，你能否向我們提供有關特斯拉網絡的最新信息以及有關推出日期或地理推出的任何細節。

Sure.

當然。

So I mean, that's -- thank you for an interesting question.

所以我的意思是——謝謝你提出一個有趣的問題。

The launch involve -- where things are obviously going towards is a shared electric autonomy model.

發布涉及 - 事情顯然是一個共享的電動自治模型。

So the -- in order for this to -- obviously for the whole sort of system to work, you need all the pieces in place.

所以--為了這個--顯然為了整個系統工作，你需要所有的部分。

You need to have full autonomy, full 4 or 5, whatever you want to call it, and obviously a lot of cars in the road and then build the software infrastructure behind that to enable shared autonomy, so to help enable people to share their cars and be able to offer their cars as effectively kind of a robo Lyft or robo Uber.

你需要完全自主，完全的 4 或 5，不管你想怎麼稱呼它，顯然路上有很多汽車，然後在其背後構建軟件基礎設施以實現共享自主，從而幫助人們共享他們的汽車並且能夠有效地提供他們的汽車，就像機器人 Lyft 或機器人優步一樣。

It's sort of like a combination of like, I guess, Uber, Lyft and Airbnb type of thing, where you can own your car and have a higher percent usage of an autonomous electric car.

我猜這有點像優步、Lyft 和 Airbnb 之類的東西的組合，你可以擁有自己的汽車，並且自動駕駛電動汽車的使用率更高。

You can say it's available generally to anyone who wants to use it when you're not using it.

您可以說，當您不使用它時，任何想要使用它的人都可以使用它。

You can recall it at will.

你可以隨意回憶。

You can restrict usage to only friends and family or only users who are 5-star.

您可以將使用限制為僅限朋友和家人或僅限 5 星級用戶。

Like this is like the obvious thing that's going to happen.

就像這是顯而易見的事情即將發生。

But in order for that to be in place, we have to obviously sell full autonomy, and we're making a really good progress on that front.

但為了實現這一點，我們顯然必須出售完全自主權，我們在這方面取得了非常好的進展。

I believe that the current production of -- the vehicles that we are currently producing are capable of full autonomy, but the only thing that would really be, like, might be needed or maybe is probably needed is a computer upgrade to have more processing power for the vision neural net.

我相信我們目前生產的車輛能夠完全自動駕駛，但唯一真正需要或可能需要的是計算機升級以擁有更多處理能力用於視覺神經網絡。

But that's a plug-in replacement, a thing that can be done quite easily.

但這是一個插件替換，可以很容易地完成的事情。

So I think we're really well positioned and are building the right -- the foundation for a -- having millions, ultimately tens of millions of shared autonomous electric vehicles.

所以我認為我們真的處於有利地位，並且正在建立正確的基礎——擁有數百萬甚至數千萬共享自動駕駛電動汽車的基礎。

(inaudible) decide not to share if you don't want to.

（聽不清）如果您不想分享，請決定不分享。

And then...

接著...

And specifically on the timing, though, do you have any details about or when we could even expect to learn more about the timing of this service?

但是，特別是關於時間安排，您是否有任何詳細信息，或者我們甚至可以期望了解有關此服務時間安排的更多信息？

Well, the hardest thing to predict about the timing is regulatory approval.

嗯，最難預測的時間是監管部門的批准。

The thing that's tricky with autonomous vehicles is that autonomy doesn't reduce the accident rate or fatality rate to 0 . It improves it substantially.

自動駕駛汽車的棘手之處在於，自動駕駛不會將事故率或死亡率降低到 0。它大大改善了它。

But the reality is that even though we think our -- when we think autonomy, even car autonomy reduces the probability of a death by 30%, which would be incredible because this is like, if applied broadly, there's over 1 million, I think, 1.2 million automotive deaths per year.

但現實是，即使我們認為我們的——當我們想到自動駕駛時，即使是汽車自動駕駛也能將死亡概率降低 30%，這將是不可思議的，因為如果廣泛應用，我認為有超過 100 萬人，每年有 120 萬人死於汽車事故。

And how many do you read about?

你讀了多少？

Basically none of them.

基本上都沒有。

However -- and but if it's an autonomous situation, you -- it's headline news.

然而——但如果這是一個自主的情況，你——它是頭條新聞。

And the media fails to mention that, actually, they shouldn't really be writing the story.

媒體沒有提到，實際上，他們不應該真的在寫這個故事。

They should be writing a story about how autonomous cars are really safe, but that's not the story if you want a click on, so they write inflammatory headlines that are fundamentally misleading to the readers.

他們應該寫一篇關於自動駕駛汽車如何真正安全的故事，但如果你想點擊，那不是故事，所以他們寫了從根本上誤導讀者的煽動性標題。

It's really outrageous.

真是太離譜了。

So -- and this would be true like even if electric cars were -- I'm sorry, if autonomous cars were 10x safer.

所以——即使電動汽車也是如此——我很抱歉，如果自動駕駛汽車安全 10 倍的話。

So instead of 1 million deaths, you have 100,000 deaths, there's still going to be people who will still sue and say, "Hey, you're responsible for the death here." And it's like, well, the 90% of people who didn't die are not suing.

因此，不是 100 萬人死亡，而是 100,000 人死亡，仍然會有人繼續起訴並說，“嘿，你要為這裡的死亡負責。”這就像，好吧，90% 沒有死的人沒有起訴。

They're not -- they're still alive.

他們不是——他們還活著。

You just don't know it, so you -- we've got to deal with that.

你只是不知道，所以你——我們必須處理它。

And then obviously regulators respond to public pressure and the press.

然後顯然監管機構會回應公眾壓力和媒體。

So if the press is hounding the regulators, and the public is laboring on misapprehension that autonomy is less safe because of that -- of misleading press, then this is where I find the things to -- the challenge of predicting it to be very difficult.

因此，如果媒體在追捕監管機構，而公眾正在努力誤解自治因此不那麼安全——誤導媒體，那麼這就是我發現事情的地方——預測它非常困難的挑戰.

And yes, it's really incredibly irresponsible of any journalist with integrity to write an article that would lead people to believe that Tesla -- that autonomy is less safe because people might actually turn it off and then die.

是的，任何一個正直的記者寫一篇文章讓人們相信特斯拉——這種自主性不太安全，因為人們實際上可能會關閉它然後死去，這真的是非常不負責任的。

So anyway, I'm really upset by those.

所以不管怎樣，我對那些真的很不高興。

Yes.

是的。

Really interesting answer.

真的很有趣的答案。

I can personally say, from a technical standpoint, I think we'll probably be ready by the end of next year.

我個人可以說，從技術角度來看，我認為我們可能會在明年年底前做好準備。

Awesome.

驚人的。

And then one more quick thing on production capacity and speed of the Fremont line because this is something you mentioned a lot, it seems.

然後是關於弗里蒙特生產線的生產能力和速度的另一件事，因為您似乎經常提到這一點。

And in the last quarterly conference call, you mentioned the max capacity with 700,000 cars for Fremont or somewhere around there.

在上一個季度電話會議中，您提到了弗里蒙特或附近某個地方的最大容量為 700,000 輛汽車。

And that was S, X and 3. And so we recently got a report form Reuters saying that Model Y production would start in November 2019 at Fremont.

那是 S、X 和 3。所以我們最近收到路透社的一份報告，稱 Model Y 的生產將於 2019 年 11 月在弗里蒙特開始。

And so I'm just kind of curious, with the Semi and the Model Y launching next year, like where are you actually planning on assembling these vehicles?

所以我有點好奇，Semi 和 Model Y 將於明年推出，你打算在哪裡組裝這些車輛？

The Reuters report is based on nothing, like I don't know where that came from.

路透社的報導毫無根據，就像我不知道它來自哪裡一樣。

We will not be starting production on Model Y at the end of next year.

我們不會在明年年底開始生產 Model Y。

I would say it's probably closer to 24 months from now.

我會說從現在起可能接近 24 個月。

So 2020 is more likely a prospect for Model Y, or early 2020.

所以 2020 年更可能是 Model Y 的前景，或者 2020 年初。

And the production location for Model Y has not been decided.

而Model Y的生產地點尚未確定。

We're really crowded here at Fremont.

我們在弗里蒙特這裡真的很擁擠。

I don't know where we'd put the Model Y production.

我不知道我們會把 Model Y 的生產放在哪裡。

So it's difficult to imagine that.

所以很難想像。

We just could not fit the Model Y production at Fremont.

我們只是無法適應弗里蒙特的 Model Y 生產。

We are jammed to the gills here.

我們在這裡被卡住了。

So one thing I'm sure, it's not here.

所以有一件事我敢肯定，它不在這裡。

It is crazy packed, and we're -- yes.

這是瘋狂的包裝，我們 - 是的。

And so we'll try to figure out what the optimal location is for Model Y production, but it's not here, not here in Fremont.

因此，我們將嘗試找出 Model Y 生產的最佳位置，但它不在這裡，不在弗里蒙特。

Okay.

好的。

And I'm not an expert in battery pack technology, but it seems that a lot of people are speculating that the specs for the Semi truck, even, I believe, the CEO of Daimler said it breaks the laws of physics.

而且我不是電池組技術方面的專家，但似乎很多人都在猜測 Semi 卡車的規格，甚至我相信戴姆勒的首席執行官說它違反了物理定律。

So I'm wondering is this just a linear...

所以我想知道這只是一個線性...

He doesn't know much about physics.

他對物理學知之甚少。

I know him.

我認識他。

I'm pretty happy you're engaged in a physics discussion with him.

我很高興你和他進行物理討論。

I actually studied physics in college.

我實際上在大學學習物理。

So yes, my question is, is that just a linear improvement in your battery technology?

所以是的，我的問題是，這只是電池技術的線性改進嗎？

Or is there some sort of new breakthrough or different platform that the Semi and Roadster are going to be built on?

或者說，Semi 和 Roadster 會建立在某種新的突破或不同的平台上嗎？

Like even if we didn't -- I mean, even if we didn't improve our battery technology at all, we could achieve a 500-mile range truck.

就像即使我們沒有——我的意思是，即使我們根本沒有改進我們的電池技術，我們也可以實現 500 英里範圍的卡車。

At all.

完全沒有。

We're going to do better than 500 miles.

我們將比 500 英里做得更好。

Yes.

是的。

This is J.B. I think the key point is it doesn't require some dramatic breakthrough that -- so there's a fundamental misunderstanding, I think, of what the current technology in our existing products can actually do.

這就是 J.B。我認為關鍵是它不需要一些戲劇性的突破——所以我認為，對於我們現有產品中的當前技術實際上可以做什麼存在根本性的誤解。

And maybe that's just a misunderstanding of the current status of the technology versus others in the industry.

也許這只是對該技術與業內其他技術的現狀的誤解。

That could be where some of that's coming from.

這可能是其中一些的來源。

If they're benchmarking sort of the best battery pack they can buy from a supplier and then mapping that with what the Semi could do, it doesn't give you -- it doesn't solve.

如果他們正在對他們可以從供應商處購買的最好的電池組進行基準測試，然後將其與 Semi 可以做的事情進行映射，那麼它不會給你 - 它不會解決問題。

I think that's maybe where some of this is coming from.

我認為這可能是其中一些的來源。

But we -- I mean, we basically have what we need in-house and understand how to do those specs today or better, as Elon said.

但是我們——我的意思是，我們基本上有我們內部需要的東西，並且知道如何在今天或更好地完成這些規範，正如 Elon 所說。

We could do a 500-mile range Semi today.

我們今天可以進行 500 英里範圍的半程。

I think the actual production unit will be about 600-mile range.

我認為實際的生產單位將是大約 600 英里的射程。

Awesome, great stuff.

很棒，很棒的東西。

So I'm also wondering, are you guys going to let Porsche beat you to market with a 350-kilowatt hour Supercharger?

所以我也想知道，你們會讓保時捷用 350 千瓦時的增壓器打敗你們嗎？

Because I know you've mentioned a V3...

因為我知道你提到了 V3...

We'll keep going until you ask questions that are not boring.

我們將繼續前進，直到您提出不無聊的問題。

Yes, I can keep going.

是的，我可以繼續前進。

So the 350-kilowatt charger from Porsche, like if they had mentioned they're rolling that out, on the lab call, J.B., you seemed to indicate that you guys were sort of going to keep the status quo with your Supercharger technology.

所以保時捷的 350 千瓦充電器，就像他們提到他們正在推出一樣，在實驗室電話中，J.B.，你似乎表明你們將用你的增壓器技術保持現狀。

But Elon, I know you've mentioned that there is a V3 Supercharger, so I'm just trying to get some clarity on whether you will be improving your Supercharger technology or not and if there is a V3.

但是 Elon，我知道你提到有 V3 增壓器，所以我只是想弄清楚你是否會改進你的增壓器技術，以及是否有 V3。

Well, we're definitely going to be improving our Supercharger technology.

好吧，我們肯定會改進我們的增壓器技術。

The thing about a 350-kilowatt charger is it doesn't actually make a ton of sense unless you've got a monster battery pack or have like a crazy high C-rate, in which case your energy density is going to be poor.

一個 350 千瓦的充電器實際上並沒有多大意義，除非你有一個巨大的電池組或者有一個瘋狂的高 C 率，在這種情況下你的能量密度會很差。

So it's kind of cockamamie.

所以這是一種 cockamamie。

Yes, I think maybe 200 -- on a -- also I don't know if you meant 350 kilowatts for a single car.

是的，我想可能是 200 - 一個 - 而且我不知道你的意思是不是單車 350 千瓦。

That's really pretty -- you're going to frag the battery pack if you do that.

這真的很漂亮 - 如果你這樣做，你會破壞電池組。

There's no -- you cannot charge a high-energy battery pack at that rate unless it's a very high kilowatt-hour battery pack.

沒有——除非它是一個非常高千瓦時的電池組，否則你不能以這種速度為高能電池組充電。

So something along the -- yes, I think -- J.B., like a couple hundred -- 200, 250, maybe...

所以有些東西 - 是的，我認為 - J.B.，像幾百 - 200、250，也許......

Yes, I mean, that -- that's definitely sort of power level that we've discussed and explored.

是的，我的意思是，這絕對是我們討論和探索過的某種功率水平。

And some of it also comes down to an optimization around utility versus cost and trade-offs in the car itself.

其中一些還歸結為圍繞汽車本身的實用性與成本和權衡的優化。

You kind of hinted at that, Elon, but there is a trade-off fundamentally between charge speed and essentially range or cost of battery.

埃隆，你有點暗示了這一點，但在充電速度和電池續航里程或成本之間存在根本性的權衡。

And we look at that pretty carefully.

我們非常仔細地看待這一點。

We understand the trade-off, and we could design cells in the pack that could charge it faster than 300, 400 kilowatts.

我們了解這種權衡，我們可以設計電池組中的電池，使其充電速度超過 300、400 千瓦。

But it's not a very useful trade-off to the customer.

但這對客戶來說並不是一個非常有用的權衡。

That's...

那是...

Let's go to understand the difference between energy and power even, really.

讓我們去真正了解能量和功率之間的區別。

Energy -- obviously, energy's rate is essentially, at most, a range.

能量——顯然，能量的速率本質上最多是一個範圍。

And then power is kind of like your peak acceleration basically, the rate at which you consume energy.

然後功率基本上有點像你的峰值加速度，你消耗能量的速度。

So really what -- it's more important to have long range than it is to have a superfast charge time.

所以真的什麼 - 擁有遠距離比擁有超快充電時間更重要。

And you can sort of think about this in the devices that you use.

您可以在您使用的設備中考慮這一點。

Like would you rather have a cell phone that lasted 2 hours but had -- it could charge in 5 minutes or 10 minutes, let's say, but only lasted 2 hours.

就像您寧願擁有一部可以使用 2 小時但擁有的手機——比如說，它可以在 5 分鐘或 10 分鐘內充電，但只能使用 2 小時。

Or you'd like a cell phone that lasts 2 days and maybe takes 1 hour to charge.

或者您想要一部可以使用 2 天並且可能需要 1 小時充電的手機。

Our next...

我們的下一個...

Yes.

是的。

I -- we'll keep going until we have quick questions on -- are still -- while they're interesting.

我 - 我們將繼續前進，直到我們有關於 - 仍然 - 雖然它們很有趣的快速問題。

I have a couple more.

我還有幾個。

For the Superchargers, I know you guys are not trying to profit off of Tesla owners with that infrastructure, but would you ever open that up to other automakers and try and generate revenue from that system?

對於增壓器，我知道你們並沒有試圖從擁有該基礎設施的特斯拉車主身上獲利，但您是否會向其他汽車製造商開放它並嘗試從該系統中獲得收入？

We've always said that we're -- this is not intended to be a walled garden, and we're happy to support other automakers and let them use our Supercharger stations.

我們一直說我們 - 這不是一個有圍牆的花園，我們很高興支持其他汽車製造商並讓他們使用我們的增壓站。

They would just need to pay the share of the cost proportionate to their vehicle usage.

他們只需要支付與其車輛使用量成比例的成本份額。

And they would need to be able to accept our charge rate or at least -- and our connector, at least have an adaptor to our connector.

他們需要能夠接受我們的收費率，或者至少——我們的連接器，至少有一個適配器連接到我們的連接器。

So this is something we're very open to, but so far none of the other car makers have wanted to do this.

所以這是我們非常願意做的事情，但到目前為止，沒有其他汽車製造商願意這樣做。

But it's like not because of opposition from us.

但這好像不是因為我們的反對。

This is not a walled garden.

這不是一個有圍牆的花園。

Trying to make a meritable share.

試圖做出有價值的分享。

Okay.

好的。

And maybe could you clarify what's the strategy?

也許你能澄清一下策略是什麼？

Like it seems like that would be a very strong moat to have this, that work that you guys have been building globally for years.

似乎擁有這個，你們多年來在全球範圍內建立的工作，這將是一條非常堅固的護城河。

So why open it up, and why is that not a moat?

那麼為什麼要打開它，為什麼那不是護城河呢？

Sorry.

對不起。

Can you repeat the question?

你能重複一下這個問題嗎？

I'm just wondering why that isn't a moat because as a long-term investor, I feel like the charging infrastructure you guys have built would take years and millions of dollars for another brand to replicate.

我只是想知道為什麼這不是護城河，因為作為長期投資者，我覺得你們建立的充電基礎設施需要數年和數百萬美元才能讓另一個品牌複製。

So I'm just curious about the strategic thinking behind opening that up versus keeping it closed.

所以我只是對開放與保持封閉背後的戰略思維感到好奇。

First of all, I think moats are lame.

首先，我認為護城河很蹩腳。

I mean, they're like nice and sort of quaint in a vestigial way.

我的意思是，它們就像退化的方式一樣好，有點古雅。

But like if your only defense against like invading armies is a moat, you will not last long.

但是，如果您對入侵軍隊的唯一防禦是護城河，那麼您將不會持續很長時間。

What matters is the pace of innovation.

重要的是創新的步伐。

That is the fundamental determinant of competitiveness.

這是競爭力的根本決定因素。

And for any given company, if the rate of innovation -- let's say, like our competitors, maybe they're -- they come out with something near every 6 years.

對於任何給定的公司，如果創新的速度——比如說，像我們的競爭對手一樣，也許他們是——他們幾乎每 6 年就會出現一次。

We're maybe every 2 to 3 years.

我們可能每2到3年一次。

So if our innovation is, let's say, twice that of any given competitor, then it is simply -- this is true of, generally, of companies in any industry.

因此，如果我們的創新是任何特定競爭對手的兩倍，那麼它很簡單——一般來說，任何行業的公司都是如此。

Whichever company has the highest rate of innovation, unless that company is actively killed by its competitors in some way that's nefarious or shoots itself in the foot, it will, at some point, exceed those competitors.

無論哪家公司的創新率最高，除非該公司被其競爭對手以某種邪惡的方式積極扼殺或自取其辱，否則它將在某個時候超過那些競爭對手。

Like this is obvious that this would occur with Amazon or Walmart, because Walmart's rate of innovation was negligible and Amazon's was very high.

很明顯，亞馬遜或沃爾瑪會發生這種情況，因為沃爾瑪的創新率可以忽略不計，而亞馬遜的創新率非常高。

The outcome was obvious a long time ago.

結果在很久以前就很明顯了。

And in terms of the Megacharger, I noticed you guys are going to be selling energy at a fixed price for those truck customers.

就 Megacharger 而言，我注意到你們將以固定價格為那些卡車客戶銷售能源。

So I'm wondering what the philosophy is there.

所以我想知道那裡的哲學是什麼。

Is it also you're going offer that at cost and reduce that energy price?

您是否也將按成本提供並降低能源價格？

Or are you thinking of that as a revenue stream for the company?

還是您認為這是公司的收入來源？

We haven't really talked about any of that and haven't finalized, frankly, any of that.

我們還沒有真正談論過這些，坦率地說，還沒有最終確定。

It's -- we want to make sure that there's a very seamless and easy system to operate trucks wherever they need to go.

這是 - 我們希望確保有一個非常無縫且簡單的系統來操作卡車，無論他們需要去哪裡。

And some customers may elect to work with us on the whole system or parts of it.

一些客戶可能會選擇在整個系統或部分系統上與我們合作。

But I think there's a lot of different ways that, that can be solved.

但我認為有很多不同的方法可以解決。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, for sure, with commercial trucking like a heavy-duty Semi, economics are fundamental to that situation.

我的意思是，當然，對於像重型半卡車這樣的商業卡車運輸，經濟是這種情況的基礎。

We're not making decisions based on aesthetics or consumer-related things.

我們不會根據美學或與消費者相關的事情做出決定。

We're -- like we made our -- we're trying to make our Semi kind of cool and sexy just because we think that that's a good thing to do, not because it affects the buying decision of our customers in a meaningful way.

我們 - 就像我們做的一樣 - 我們試圖讓我們的 Semi 有點酷和性感，只是因為我們認為這是一件好事，而不是因為它以一種有意義的方式影響了我們客戶的購買決定.

It doesn't really move the needle.

它並沒有真正移動針頭。

I mean, there was like a laughable lawsuit recently from some company ironically called Nikola.

我的意思是，最近某家諷刺地叫 Nikola 的公司發起了一場可笑的訴訟。

It's like Nikola is suing Tesla.

就像尼古拉在起訴特斯拉一樣。

That's hilarious.

那真好笑。

Fate loves the irony.

命運喜歡諷刺。

And -- but they're like suing us because of the way the trucks look, which is absurd.

而且——但他們就像是因為卡車的外觀而起訴我們，這很荒謬。

Nobody's buying a Semi truck because of the way it looks or because it's got like a wraparound windshield or whatever, please.

沒有人會因為它的外觀或它像環繞式擋風玻璃之類的東西而購買半卡車，拜託。

So the economics are incredibly important.

所以經濟學非常重要。

And so we have to make sure that the Superchargers or Megachargers, whatever you call them, or the trucks are set up in a way that you'd have very low cost of electricity.

所以我們必須確保超級充電站或超級充電站，不管你怎麼稱呼它們，或者卡車的設置方式，你的電力成本非常低。

I mean, one maybe slightly related point to that, that I think is super exciting about this is the potential to link up renewable energy generation at a very fixed and also very affordable cost to power future trucking fleets.

我的意思是，有一點可能與此略有相關，我認為這非常令人興奮，因為它有可能以非常固定且非常實惠的成本將可再生能源發電連接起來，為未來的貨運車隊提供動力。

Ultimately, that can give customers an incredibly deterministic cost per mile that will not change with the price of petroleum over decades, which is really, really an interesting proposition for a trucking customer.

最終，這可以為客戶提供令人難以置信的確定性每英里成本，在幾十年內不會隨著石油價格的變化而變化，這對於貨運客戶來說確實是一個有趣的提議。

And that's something that we're pretty excited about.

這是我們非常興奮的事情。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

It's really worth emphasizing that.

這真的值得強調。

For trucking companies, like if the cost of diesel goes up a few cents, it just like destroys their business.

對於貨運公司來說，如果柴油成本上漲幾美分，就等於毀了他們的生意。

And whereas with the sort of Megacharger situation, combining -- having basically a solar battery-powered Megacharger, we have -- there are constant costs and we know what they are; we bake them in.

而對於那種 Megacharger 的情況，結合 - 基本上有一個太陽能電池供電的 Megacharger，我們有 - 成本是恆定的，我們知道它們是什麼；我們把它們烤進去。

And yes, it's very predictable and lower cost per mile than a diesel truck.

是的，與柴油卡車相比，它非常可預測且每英里的成本更低。

And fundamentally, it's like what is the cost per mile kilometer of cargo?

從根本上說，這就像每英里貨物的成本是多少？

And that drives the commercial trucking market.

這推動了商業貨運市場。

You can have the ugliest truck in the world and it still would be victorious.

你可以擁有世界上最醜陋的卡車，但它仍然會取得勝利。

Yes.

是的。

And building on that, do you have any thoughts on how the trucking market could change or potentially grow if you guys are actually able to deliver on dramatic cost reduction, especially with things like platooning?

在此基礎上，如果你們真的能夠大幅降低成本，尤其是像排隊這樣的事情，你們對卡車運輸市場將如何變化或潛在增長有任何想法嗎？

I think it will take away quite a bit of revenue from railway because the reason rail's heavily competitive is it's effectively just platooning with lots of railcars.

我認為這會從鐵路中帶走相當多的收入，因為鐵路競爭激烈的原因是它實際上只是與許多有軌電車一起排成一列。

And you need only a small crew to operate the train.

你只需要一個小工作人員來操作火車。

However, trains don't go everywhere.

然而，火車並非無處不在。

So you have to like have a truck to deliver things to the train rail spur and then pick stuff -- pick it up.

所以你必須喜歡有一輛卡車把東西送到火車軌道支線然後撿東西——把它撿起來。

And then at the destination, the truck's got to pick it up from the rail spur over there.

然後在目的地，卡車必須從那邊的鐵路支線上把它撿起來。

So you still have trucks plus train plus transfer.

所以你仍然有卡車加火車加轉運。

So I think platooning of trucks will quite dramatically affect the rail industry in a negative way.

因此，我認為卡車的隊列化將對鐵路行業產生巨大的負面影響。

Okay.

好的。

Last one, I promise.

最後一個，我保證。

On Tesla Energy, I assume that you guys are basically supply constrained, not demand constrained on that side of the business.

在特斯拉能源方面，我假設你們基本上是供應受限，而不是業務方面的需求受限。

So I'm wondering how you're prioritizing residential versus utility scale.

所以我想知道您如何優先考慮住宅與公用事業規模。

And in particular, how has this successful project in South Australia sort of changed the industry's perception of what batteries can do?

尤其是，南澳大利亞的這個成功項目如何改變了業界對電池功能的看法？

Yes, I think it's had quite a profound effect.

是的，我認為它產生了相當深遠的影響。

The -- there's -- South Australia took a chance on doing the world's biggest battery.

南澳大利亞有機會製造世界上最大的電池。

That's worked out really well.

這真的很好。

If you read the articles, it's worked out far beyond their expectations because the battery's able to respond at the millisecond level, far faster than any hydrocarbon plant.

如果您閱讀這些文章，它的結果遠遠超出了他們的預期，因為電池能夠在毫秒級響應，比任何碳氫化合物工廠都要快得多。

And so it's value and good stabilization is much greater actually than even a gas turbine plant, which can normally respond quite fast.

因此，它的價值和良好的穩定性實際上比燃氣輪機設備要高得多，燃氣輪機設備通常可以快速響應。

So it's kind of like you get in a Tesla and you can -- you have that instant acceleration.

所以這有點像你坐上特斯拉，你可以——你有即時加速。

Feels like you like have -- also like a mind meld with the car.

感覺就像你喜歡有 - 也喜歡與汽車融為一體。

It's just like the car is you.

就像汽車就是你一樣。

And then that same rapid response is true of the battery pack.

然後電池組也有同樣的快速響應。

So the customers that -- the utilities that worked with us thus far have really loved the battery pack.

因此，迄今為止與我們合作的公用事業公司的客戶非常喜歡電池組。

And I feel confident that we'll be able to announce a deal at the gigawatt-hour scale within a matter of months.

我相信我們能夠在幾個月內宣布達成千兆瓦時規模的交易。

So it's a 1,000 gigawatts -- megawatt-hours -- 1,000 megawatt-hours for [zeroing gigawatt-hours].

所以這是一個 1,000 吉瓦 - 兆瓦時 - 1,000 兆瓦時 [歸零千兆瓦時]。

Yes, maybe just for the first part of your question also, it is absolutely accurate that we are still -- there's more than enough demand.

是的，也許只是對於你問題的第一部分，我們仍然是絕對準確的——需求綽綽有餘。

And we are still building under our demand backlog and actually increasing it slightly.

而且我們仍在根據我們的需求積壓進行建設，並且實際上略有增加。

And we're trying to do our best to prioritize customers between residential Powerwall and utility and commercial.

我們正在盡最大努力在住宅 Powerwall 和公用事業和商業之間優先考慮客戶。

I'd say our longer-term strategy is to shift a little bit of our focus and really catch up on our Powerwall demand backlog, which is quite -- it's too long right now.

我想說我們的長期戰略是轉移一點我們的關注點，真正趕上我們的 Powerwall 需求積壓，這相當 - 現在太長了。

We know people are waiting too long.

我們知道人們等待的時間太長了。

So that's -- I think that's generally the direction we're trying to take that.

所以這就是 - 我認為這通常是我們試圖採取的方向。

But Model 3 has taken a lot of focus in the last few quarters, and that trend is going to be reversing in the second half of the year.

但 Model 3 在過去幾個季度備受關注，而這一趨勢將在下半年發生逆轉。

Let's go to the next question, please.

請讓我們進入下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Phil LeBeau with CNBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 CNBC 的 Phil LeBeau。

Elon, question on the Tesla Semi.

埃隆，關於特斯拉半導體的問題。

Can you give us some perspective in terms of how many reservations you guys have now, and where you guys are in the plan for developing it and rolling out the first model?

你能給我們一些關於你們現在有多少預訂的看法，以及你們在開發它和推出第一個模型的計劃中的位置嗎？

My apologies, sorry.

我很抱歉，對不起。

We're just discussing something internally.

我們只是在內部討論一些事情。

Could you repeat that question?

你能重複那個問題嗎？

With the Tesla Semi, how many reservations do you guys now have approximately?

對於 Tesla Semi，你們現在大約有多少預訂？

And where are you in the process as far as the development and the rollout of the first model in terms of time line when you guys expect that to happen, et cetera?

就時間線而言，你們在開發和推出第一個模型的過程中處於什麼階段，而你們預計會發生這種情況等等？

I actually don't know how many reservations we have for the Semi.

我實際上不知道我們對 Semi 有多少預訂。

I don't think...

我不認為...

About 2,000.

大約2,000。

About 2,000?

大約2,000？

Okay.

好的。

I mean, we haven't really tried to sell the Semi.

我的意思是，我們還沒有真正嘗試過出售 Semi。

It's not like there's like an ongoing sales effort.

這不像是持續的銷售努力。

So sales orders are -- for the Semi are like opportunistic, more like companies approaching us.

所以銷售訂單是 - 對於 Semi 來說就像機會主義，更像是接近我們的公司。

It's just not something we really think about much.

這不是我們真正考慮太多的事情。

Our focus is on the Model 3. We need to get that to above 5,000 a week at a good margin.

我們的重點是 Model 3。我們需要以良好的利潤率將其提高到每週 5,000 輛以上。

We need to become a profitable company.

我們需要成為一家盈利的公司。

That is a good criticism that has been leveled at Tesla, an accurate one.

這是對特斯拉的一個很好的批評，一個準確的批評。

It's high time we became profitable.

現在是我們盈利的時候了。

And the truth is like you're not a real company until you are, frankly.

事實上，坦率地說，在你成為一家真正的公司之前，你並不是一家真正的公司。

So that's our focus right now.

所以這是我們現在的重點。

And then -- so we've got an awesome product road map.

然後 - 所以我們有一個很棒的產品路線圖。

The Tesla Semi is one of those things.

Tesla Semi 就是其中之一。

And I think we've got a really good idea for the -- the Model Y is going to be amazing.

而且我認為我們有一個非常好的想法——Model Y 將會很棒。

I'm really excited about that.

我對此感到非常興奮。

Tesla pickup's going to be great.

特斯拉皮卡會很棒。

So the product road map -- I mean, we have like way more cool things than we know what to do.

所以產品路線圖——我的意思是，我們有比我們知道要做什麼更酷的東西。

Like the idea is -- idea generation part to devoted to execute it.

就像這個想法一樣——想法生成部分致力於執行它。

So we just need to stay focused and not divide our attention on too many products at one time.

所以我們只需要保持專注，不要一次將注意力分散在太多產品上。

And a follow-up.

以及後續行動。

When -- given the fact that you're already packed to the gills in Fremont, when will you make a decision regarding a second manufacturing facility?

什麼時候 - 考慮到您已經在弗里蒙特（Fremont）擠得水洩不通，您什麼時候會做出關於第二家製造工廠的決定？

So the -- that's probably later this year.

所以 - 這可能是今年晚些時候。

It has to be later this year.

應該是今年晚些時候。

So I'm not sure of the exact time, but I don't know, maybe next quarter but not later than fourth quarter for Model Y. And then we also expect to announce the location of the Tesla Gigafactory in China soon.

所以我不確定確切的時間，但我不知道，可能是下個季度，但不遲於 Model Y 的第四季度。然後我們也期待很快宣布特斯拉 Gigafactory 在中國的位置。

And will that second factory, when you announce it, will it be in North America or is that going to be in China?

當你宣布第二家工廠時，它會在北美還是在中國？

Well, I just said it's in China.

好吧，我只是說它在中國。

So the Gigafactory's there, but the second manufacturing plant will be in China as well?

所以超級工廠在那裡，但第二家製造廠也會在中國嗎？

Sorry.

對不起。

Oh, I mean, yes -- sorry.

哦，我的意思是，是的——對不起。

In the future, all Gigafactories will include vehicle production.

未來，所有 Gigafactories 都將包括汽車生產。

So right now, we've got vehicle production and battery production -- like battery production and motor and power electronics and charger production are at Giga and they'll be at our Fremont car factory.

所以現在，我們有汽車生產和電池生產——比如電池生產、電機和電力電子設備以及充電器生產在 Giga，它們將在我們的弗里蒙特汽車工廠。

But future Gigafactories will all incorporate vehicle production.

但未來的超級工廠都將整合汽車生產。

Please add to the fact things like that -- that we appreciate -- we're appreciative of the fact that the government of China has announced that they will be allowing full ownership of manufacturing facilities in China.

請補充這樣的事實——我們很感激——我們很感激中國政府宣布他們將允許在中國擁有製造設施的全部所有權。

We still have to express an order of appreciation to the Chinese government in that regard.

在這方面，我們仍需向中國政府表示感謝。

I should also -- Robin, is there anything that you'd like to say or anything?

我也應該—— 羅賓，你有什麼想說的嗎？

Well, we're already in good discussion with the government, so we'll announce something when we'd like.

好吧，我們已經與政府進行了很好的討論，所以我們會在需要時宣布一些事情。

Okay.

好的。

So Robin Ren's here with me.

所以羅賓·任和我在一起。

Robin is managing worldwide sales for Tesla right now.

羅賓目前正在管理特斯拉的全球銷售。

He was born and raised in China.

他在中國出生和長大。

Won the physics Olympiad in his circle.

在他的圈子裡贏得了物理奧林匹克。

Anyway -- but we'll talk more about -- I think the next earnings call or next -- we'll have a lot more to say about that in the future.

無論如何 - 但我們會更多地談論 - 我認為下一次財報電話會議或下一次 - 我們將來會有很多話要說。

Our next question comes from James Albertine with Consumer Edge.

我們的下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge 的 James Albertine。

And if I can be brief, I wanted to ask, given the coverage that you've received as it relates to these high-profile accidents, one of the things we like most about your company is you have the most miles tested and continue to test daily from an Autopilot perspective.

如果我可以簡短一點，我想問一下，鑑於您收到的與這些備受矚目的事故有關的報導，我們最喜歡貴公司的一件事是您測試的里程最多，並繼續每天從自動駕駛儀的角度進行測試。

Can you give us any color from what you're seeing in your data as it relates to the confidence that your consumers have in the Autopilot functionality, whether they've used it more or less frequently in their existing vehicles or whether they've opted to purchase the functionality more or less in lieu of these accidents?

您能否從您在數據中看到的任何顏色告訴我們，因為這與您的消費者對 Autopilot 功能的信心有關，無論他們是否在現有車輛中或多或少地使用它，或者他們是否選擇了它或多或少地購買功能來代替這些事故？

Because we're really trying to get ahead a sense of consumer sort of -- the ability or the likelihood of consumers to adopt this technology over time.

因為我們真的在努力超越消費者的感覺——消費者隨著時間的推移採用這項技術的能力或可能性。

So this would be very helpful.

所以這將非常有幫助。

We do see a steady increase in the number of percentage of miles driven with using Autopilot.

我們確實看到使用 Autopilot 行駛的里程百分比穩步增加。

As we roll out more functionality, as we make it better, we see a steady increase.

隨著我們推出更多功能，隨著我們的改進，我們看到了穩步增長。

I think it's something -- for cars equipped with Autopilot, something on the order of 1/3 of highway miles, maybe closer -- maybe 1/2 in some cases are -- in some regions are on Autopilot.

我認為這是一些東西——對於配備自動駕駛儀的汽車，大約是高速公路里程的 1/3，也許更近——在某些情況下可能是 1/2——在某些地區是自動駕駛儀。

But then, of course, when there's like negative news in the press, then that dips.

但是，當然，當媒體上有負面新聞時，它就會下降。

And then I was like, "Okay, this is not good because people are reading things in the press that cause them to use Autopilot less, and then that makes it dangerous for our customers and that's not cool." That's why I get upset.

然後我想，“好吧，這不好，因為人們在媒體上閱讀導致他們更少使用 Autopilot 的內容，這對我們的客戶來說很危險，這並不酷。”這就是我生氣的原因。

And then we get accused of blaming the victim.

然後我們被指控指責受害者。

I was like, "Look, we're not blaming the victim here, but it is important that people not be under the wrong impression." The statistics are unequivocal that Autopilots improve safety.

我當時想，“看，我們不是在這裡責怪受害者，但重要的是不要讓人們產生錯誤的印象。”統計數據明確表明自動駕駛儀提高了安全性。

No question.

沒有問題。

In fact, one thing I was going to mention, forgot to but also going to mention, is that we'll be publishing our safety statistics on a quarterly basis so people know exactly what Autopilot safety is.

事實上，我要提到、忘記但還要提到的一件事是，我們將每季度發布一次安全統計數據，以便人們確切地知道什麼是 Autopilot 安全性。

Is it getting better?

好轉了嗎？

Is it getting worse?

是不是越來越差了？

And it's like, look, coloring those impressions is that when there is a serious accident on Autopilot, people, for some reason, think that -- or some of the articles think that it's because the driver thought the car was fully autonomous and it wasn't, and we somehow misled them into thinking it was fully autonomous.

就像，看，給這些印象著色的是，當自動駕駛儀發生嚴重事故時，人們出於某種原因認為——或者一些文章認為這是因為司機認為汽車是完全自動駕駛的't，我們不知何故誤導他們認為它是完全自主的。

It is the opposite case.

這是相反的情況。

When there is a serious accident, it is almost always, in fact, maybe always the case that it is an experienced user.

當發生嚴重事故時，幾乎總是，事實上，也許總是有經驗的用戶。

And the issue is what -- more one of complacency, like we get too used to it, that tends to be more of an issue.

問題是——更多的是自滿，就像我們已經習慣了一樣，這往往是一個更大的問題。

It's not a lack of understanding of what Autopilot can do.

這並不是對 Autopilot 能做什麼缺乏了解。

It's actually thinking they know more about Autopilot than they do, like quite a significant understanding of it, but there's less, [maybe less].

它實際上認為他們對 Autopilot 的了解比他們自己多，就像對它有相當深刻的理解一樣，但是更少，[也許更少]。

Just to clarify, Elon, so you've got 2 accidents spaced out pretty far.

澄清一下，埃隆，你有兩起事故間隔很遠。

You've had dips during those periods when the accidents occurred.

在事故發生的那段時間裡，你有過低谷。

But to clarify your comments, you are increasing use -- you're seeing increasing usage and you've weathered those dips based on where we are today?

但是為了澄清你的評論，你正在增加使用 - 你看到使用增加，並且根據我們今天的情況，你已經經受住了這些低谷？

That is correct.

那是對的。

Our next question comes from Ben Kallo with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ben Kallo 和 Baird。

So I remember the Barron's story, I don't know if it was fake news or not, which you hung up on about your battery cost.

所以我記得巴倫的故事，我不知道這是否是假新聞，你掛斷了你的電池成本。

And I don't want to ask a mundane question, so -- but I think it's important because one of your stakeholders are shareholders right now.

而且我不想問一個平凡的問題，所以 - 但我認為這很重要，因為您的利益相關者之一現在是股東。

And so far, we've had a couple pushouts in production.

到目前為止，我們已經在生產中進行了幾次推出。

And is there a way that you can update us when you get to that 3,000 number or 4,000 number per week?

當您每周達到 3,000 或 4,000 個數字時，有沒有辦法可以更新我們？

I mean, you -- you're active on Twitter.

我的意思是，你——你在推特上很活躍。

Can you just let us know?

你能告訴我們嗎？

Because -- we're going to have a big vacuum here and there's a lot of news flow out there that makes volatility into the stock.

因為 - 我們將在這裡有一個很大的真空，那裡有很多消息會導致股票波動。

It makes it hard for people to own even though you have a lot of believers out there.

即使你有很多信徒，人們也很難擁有它。

And so even though it would be in my office right now, I think it's very important to get those kind of updates.

因此，即使它現在就在我的辦公室裡，我認為獲得這些更新非常重要。

And so that's -- I think that's my question.

這就是——我認為這是我的問題。

Can you give us an update when you get to 3,000 and 4,000 per week on the Model 3?

當您在 Model 3 上達到每週 3,000 和 4,000 輛時，您能告訴我們最新情況嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Actually, the -- what's -- Tesla's such a leaky server of information that I think the news will leak pretty quickly.

實際上，特斯拉的信息服務器如此洩漏，我認為消息會很快洩漏。

Also people track registrations very closely.

人們也非常密切地跟踪註冊。

So at most, any information that we provide would be 1 week or 2 in advance of what will become public knowledge just due to vehicle registrations and shipments that are tracked very carefully.

因此，我們提供的任何信息最多會比公眾知道的信息提前 1 週或 2 週，因為車輛登記和運輸都經過了非常仔細的跟踪。

So that really, the problem is like people get too focused on like what's happening in the space of a few weeks or a few months.

所以說真的，問題是人們過於關注幾週或幾個月內發生的事情。

This is -- it's an old maxim of investing, you should not be focused on short-term things.

這是 - 這是一個古老的投資格言，你不應該專注於短期的事情。

You should be focused on long-term things.

你應該專注於長期的事情。

We have no interest in satisfying the desires of day traders, like we couldn't care less.

我們對滿足日內交易者的慾望沒有興趣，就像我們不在乎一樣。

Please sell our stock and don't buy it.

請賣掉我們的股票，不要買。

I completely understand your frustrations, and I'm frustrated too on how myopic we are right now.

我完全理解你的沮喪，我也對我們現在的短視感到沮喪。

They also say that great years are made out of quarters and great decades are made out of years.

他們還說，偉大的歲月是由四分之一組成的，偉大的十年是由歲月組成的。

So everyone's short-term focused in some ways ,and volatility has a way of taking people out even if they are strong and want to be there.

因此，每個人都在某些方面關注短期，而波動性有一種方式將人們帶出，即使他們很強大並且想要在那裡。

And so anything you can to do to help in the near term on that, I think it's helpful for the stock.

因此，您在短期內可以做的任何事情來幫助，我認為這對股票有幫助。

I mean, I think that if people are concerned about volatility, they should definitely not buy our stock.

我的意思是，我認為如果人們擔心波動性，他們絕對不應該購買我們的股票。

I am not here to convince you to buy our stock.

我不是來說服你購買我們的股票的。

Do not buy it if volatility is scary.

如果波動性很可怕，請不要購買。

There you go.

你去吧。

Okay.

好的。

And let's go to our last question now.

現在讓我們回答最後一個問題。

Our last question comes from Alex Potter with Piper Jaffray.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Alex Potter 和 Piper Jaffray。

Not sure if this is going to be a hard question to answer.

不確定這是否是一個很難回答的問題。

You mentioned Model 3 market share versus the 3 Series and others in that segment.

您提到了 Model 3 與該細分市場中的 3 系列和其他車型的市場份額。

To what extent do you think Model 3 is, I guess, changing the denominator, making that segment larger as a class versus what it used to be?

我猜，您認為 Model 3 在多大程度上改變了分母，使該細分市場作為一個類別比以前更大？

I think it will probably increase the total number of sedans purchased, yes.

我認為這可能會增加購買的轎車總數，是的。

Yes, I think so.

是的，我想是這樣。

So you think you're pulling ex Accord buyers and Camry buyers into that class, as example?

所以你認為你正在把前雅閣買家和凱美瑞買家拉到那個級別，例如？

Yes, we know this because of the trade-ins.

是的，我們知道這一點是因為以舊換新。

So we see quite a wide range of cars (inaudible) a lot of trading in the cars.

所以我們看到相當廣泛的汽車（聽不清）很多汽車交易。

They're not necessarily owners of a C-Class or an Audi A4 or a 3 Series.

他們不一定是 C 級或奧迪 A4 或 3 系列的車主。

We saw signs of trade-in with Model S, so with Model 3 it's going to be even more prominent.

我們看到了 Model S 以舊換新的跡象，因此 Model 3 將更加突出。

Yes, yes, exactly.

是的，是的，正是。

And I think -- like also, once we get to like the shared autonomy, ride-hailing thing, we -- it could be as soon as the end of next year, but that's already technically ready.

而且我認為 - 同樣，一旦我們喜歡共享自治，叫車服務，我們 - 可能最快在明年年底，但這在技術上已經準備好。

But then not long after that, I would expect some jurisdictions to give regulatory approval.

但不久之後，我預計一些司法管轄區會給予監管批准。

The effective cost of ownership of a Model 3 or Tesla drops dramatically because you can share that car with others.

Model 3 或特斯拉的有效擁有成本大幅下降，因為您可以與他人共享這輛車。

Okay.

好的。

Very interesting.

很有意思。

Last one.

最後一個。

You mentioned earlier, you think the Model Y production is going to be a true sort of production revolution.

您之前提到過，您認為 Model Y 的生產將是一場真正的生產革命。

If you had to do the Model 3 over again, there are some things that you would have changed, and you hope to incorporate those learnings into the Model Y. What specifically would you do or what specifically do you plan to do?

如果你必須重新做 Model 3，有些事情你會改變，你希望將這些學習融入到 Model Y 中。你具體會做什麼或具體打算做什麼？

Well, I think let's save that for another time.

好吧，我想讓我們再保存一次。

Like we'll talk about that when we unveil the Model Y. But it's really going to be dramatically better.

就像我們在推出 Model Y 時會談到的那樣。但它確實會變得更好。

The design and production system, I think, really will be next level.

我認為設計和生產系統真的會更上一層樓。

(inaudible) bottom line.

（聽不清）底線。

All right.

好的。

Thanks a lot.

非常感謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

Appreciate the good questions.

欣賞好問題。

Okay.

好的。

It's unfortunately all the time we have, so thank you very much, and speak to you next quarter.

不幸的是，我們一直都有，所以非常感謝你，下個季度再和你談談。

Thank you very much, and goodbye.

非常感謝，再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This does conclude the program.

這確實結束了程序。

You may all disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

你們都可以斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。